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000
FXUS62 KFFC 291736 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
136 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...
For 18Z TAFs.

Western fringe of rain shield associated with now Tropical
Depression Bonnie continuing to hold across far eastern counties
of CWFA. Temperatures as a result have held in the upper 60s to
around 70F. Have adjusted accordingly in grids. Also watching
narrow low lvl confluence zone just west of cirrus shield where
decent thermal gradient is helping to generate a few -SHRA between
Covington and Macon. Movement is to the south. POPS and WX cover
this with isold/slight chance coverage. Other elements look on
track for rest of afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 740 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/... Rather uneventful fcst
period for north and central GA given TS Bonnie progged to slowly
approach the SC coastline by this evening then follow the edge of
the coast NEWD thru Monday keeping our CWA in the western
subsidence dominated zone. Aside from a few outer rainbands
flirting with the far eastern tier of the area this morning into
afternoon...any pops stay slight to low end chance. While hi-res
solutions indicate isolated shower/storm coverage area- wide this
afternoon /possibly from influence of weak mid-level moisture
axis/...think this is largely overdone so have limited pops to
east and portions of north but couldn`t rule something isolated
elsewhere.

Monday looks to be just general slight pops for diurnally driven
showers/storms. Some discrepancies in the thermal profiles for the
afternoon as the Nam has steeper mid-level lapse rates and decently
higher resultant conditional instability than the GFS. Lack of any
upper wave dynamics in the weakly zonal flow aloft or any low level
boundaries so nothing to weigh into for more organized convective
potential than general isolated threat.

Temps should be near to slightly above norms today aside from cooler
eastern tier given aforementioned outer reach of clouds/precip from
Bonnie. Monday will be very summer-like with highs progged 3-7 deg
above norms and most areas in upper 80s to low 90s.

Baker

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
The beginning of the period should find Bonnie near coastal NC.
This puts GA in an area of weak dynamics with the potential for
mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Bonnie should continue
northeast as the next upper trough moves into the OH valley late
Thursday and Friday. This should push a frontal boundary into the
southern Appalachians and eventually into GA by the end of the
period as the upper trough continues to deepen through the OH
valley and into the southeast states. Somewhat higher chance pops
area wide for Friday into Saturday.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail through tomorrow
/Monday/ morning at all TAF sites in north/central GA. Watching a
few -SHRA develop between Covington and Macon, moving south. Could
influnce MCN in the next few hours, hence the TEMPO. Otherwise,
pop-up showers/isold tstms expected through sunset this evening.
Outflow from rain shield associated with TD Bonnie, plus
developing convection will likely swing winds around to NE over
ATL between 22-02z. Winds expected to shift back around to NW
tomorrow mrng. Few-Sct cumulus develop by 17z but little to no
convection expected.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on wind direction.
High all other elements.

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          81  62  90  66 /  30  10  20  10
Atlanta         86  67  89  68 /  20  10  20  10
Blairsville     82  60  84  60 /  30  20  20  10
Cartersville    88  63  89  63 /  20  10  20  10
Columbus        89  67  91  68 /  10  10  20  10
Gainesville     83  64  87  67 /  20  20  20  10
Macon           88  63  91  66 /  10  10  20  10
Rome            89  63  90  63 /  20  10  20  10
Peachtree City  87  62  89  63 /  10  10  20  10
Vidalia         78  66  90  69 /  40  10  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DJN.83




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291140
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
740 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 403 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

.SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
Rather uneventful fcst period for north and central GA given TS
Bonnie progged to slowly approach the SC coastline by this evening
then follow the edge of the coast NEWD thru Monday keeping our CWA
in the western subsidence dominated zone. Aside from a few outer
rainbands flirting with the far eastern tier of the area this
morning into afternoon...any pops stay slight to low end chance.
While hi-res solutions indicate isolated shower/storm coverage area-
wide this afternoon /possibly from influence of weak mid-level
moisture axis/...think this is largely overdone so have limited pops
to east and portions of north but couldn`t rule something isolated
elsewhere.

Monday looks to be just general slight pops for diurnally driven
showers/storms. Some discrepancies in the thermal profiles for the
afternoon as the Nam has steeper mid-level lapse rates and decently
higher resultant conditional instability than the GFS. Lack of any
upper wave dynamics in the weakly zonal flow aloft or any low level
boundaries so nothing to weigh into for more organized convective
potential than general isolated threat.

Temps should be near to slightly above norms today aside from cooler
eastern tier given aforementioned outer reach of clouds/precip from
Bonnie. Monday will be very summer-like with highs progged 3-7 deg
above norms and most areas in upper 80s to low 90s.

Baker

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
The beginning of the period should find Bonnie near coastal NC.
This puts GA in an area of weak dynamics with the potential for
mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Bonnie should continue
northeast as the next upper trough moves into the OH valley late
Thursday and Friday. This should push a frontal boundary into the
southern Appalachians and eventually into GA by the end of the
period as the upper trough continues to deepen through the OH
valley and into the southeast states. Somewhat higher chance pops
area wide for Friday into Saturday.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
VFR conditions expected thru period with mainly mid-level 8-12 kft cigs
working in from the tropical system to the east and afternoon cu
field in 4-6 kft. KAHN is only site with chance high enough to
mention VCSH mainly for morning into early afternoon...though an
isolated shower or thunderstorm isn`t out of the question by this
afternoon for any site. Winds will be tricky for KATL today as
they may be wavering from NNE to NNW but think predominantly will
stay NNW then perhaps a period late this evening back on NE site.
At least magnitudes should be less than 10kts.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Low on NNW to NNE winds near KATL.
Medium on precip chance.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          83  62  90  66 /  30  10  20  10
Atlanta         86  67  89  68 /  20  10  20  10
Blairsville     82  60  84  60 /  30  20  20  10
Cartersville    88  63  89  63 /  20  10  20  10
Columbus        89  67  91  68 /  10  10  20  10
Gainesville     83  64  87  67 /  30  20  20  10
Macon           88  63  91  66 /  10  10  20  10
Rome            89  63  90  63 /  20  10  20  10
Peachtree City  87  62  89  63 /  10  10  20  10
Vidalia         85  66  90  69 /  40  10  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Baker



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000
FXUS62 KCAE 291127
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
727 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Bonnie is southeast of Charleston this morning.
Bonnie will continue to gradually move north northeast and current
forecast is for a landfall just north of Charleston late this
afternoon/early evening. Once Bonnie makes landfall it is expected
to gradually make a turn toward the northeast and off the coast of
the Grand Strand by Monday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Satellite and Radar this morning show Tropical Storm Bonnie
located just southeast of Charleston. The storm is expected to
continue slowly north northeast through the day making landfall
late this afternoon/early evening just north of Charleston. The
convection around the storm had continued to diminish...but areas
of light/moderate rain continue. One area along the Savannah
River continues to move slowly northwest. The second area is a
band that moving ashore along the Grand Strand and into the Pee
Dee Region moving northwest. Regional radar shows what appears to
be the main circulation near the center of Bonnie spiraling
northeast toward the coast near Charleston. Some of the rain
early this morning has been locally heavy with amounts from 1 to
3 inches across the Low Country along with portions of the
extreme eastern Midlands and southern Midlands/CSRA. At this
time...do not anticipate needing a Flash Flood Watch based on the
heaviest rainfall being more isolate in nature rather than
widespread. With dewpoint temperatures in the middle 60s/lower 70s
and pw values continuing to increase through the morning hours to
nearly 2.0 inches expect some of the rainfall to be locally heavy
throughout the day. Some areas could see from 1 to 3 additional
inches.

There has been very little lightning with convection which is
not that uncommon with tropical systems. With limited instability
thunderstorms will remain isolated. The possibility exist for a
few gusty winds in stronger convection this afternoon and tonight
as Bonnie moves closer the CWA. Do not expect a continuous rain
through the day and tonight...but periods of showers along with
the possibility of a rumble or two of thunder. Models indicate the
heaviest rainfall today will stretch from the coast up through the
Midlands and then toward the Pee Dee tonight.

Temperatures already mild this morning with most areas in the
middle 60s to lower 70s. Guidance numbers along with current
numbers look reasonably good. Did lower temperatures slightly due
to expected cloudy/mostly cloudy skies along with occasional
showers/tsra.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The forecast for TS Bonnie has been reasonably consistent...showing
a brief stay on land before moving off the South Carolina coast
around Georgetown/Grand Strand. It is then forecasted to slowly
move to the east northeast for the next few days. As the low
pushes northeast of the CWA Monday into Monday night...the chances
for showers/isolated tsra will gradually decrease. However still
expect to see at least a slight chance of a shower through the
remainder of the period.

Expect temperatures to return closer to normal on Monday...but
expect warming reading across the CSRA with more sun/lower rain
chances with cooler reading across the northern Midlands/Pee Dee
with more clouds and rain as Bonnie continues to move away from
the CWA. Overnight lows Monday Night close to guidance and a
little above climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models have come into a little better agreement on a deep trough
moving from west to east toward the end of next week into next
weekend. Both ECMWF and GFS show the trough will push eastward
across the conus. However, the southern portion of the trough
slows and both models indicate a closed low trying to develop
across the lower MS River Valley by the end of the week/next
weekend. Will continue with the diurnal trend of isolated to
scattered afternoon shower and thunderstorm through much of next
week, with increasing rain chances late in the period just ahead
of the next cold front. Have stayed close to current forecast
which is for temperatures to remain generally at or slightly above
normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TS Bonnie, currently centered just off the central SC coast, is
expected to move very slowly toward the coast and then inland
later this afternoon. Associated rain activity and restrictions
expected across our cwa. In the near term, radar loops indicate
best threat of heavy shower activity, with IFR VSBYS at times,
will affect AGS/DNL. Otherwise, latest surface obs indicate MVFR
to IFR CIG restrictions will affect all terminals this morning,
with some uncertainty regarding rain coverage and any diurnal
improvement this afternoon. Satellite and radar currently
indicates limited convection near the coast currently, but
additional activity could develop later today. For now, will
assume little overall change during the TAF period due to very
slow movement of the cyclone. Will concentrate on the near term,
following latest radar loops, surface observation trends, and high
resolution model guidance.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain and associated restrictions
probable Monday.  Otherwise no restrictions expected.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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000
FXUS62 KCHS 291122
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
722 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Bonnie will track towards the South Carolina coast
today, then slowly move northeast through mid-week while weakening.
A cold front will then approach the region late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TS Bonnie had shifted to more of a north northwest track
overnight; hesitant to come off the Gulf Stream. Our main concern
today continues to evolve around the risk for locally heavy rains
and potential flooding. Model consensus indicates that the pinned
region of deformation and upper forcing enhanced by a secondary
jet streak and broad low level convergence will continue to focus
the best potential over Southeast South Carolina west of a line
from Lake Moultrie to Charleston give the latest track of Bonnie
pans out. Localized flash flooding is possible today with this
main band of rains. While widespread flash flooding is unlikely
there could be a few pockets of rainfall exceeding 3 inches during
the 12Z to 21Z time frame. We have refrained from issuing a flash
flood watch today since models indicate that the most intense rain
should have occurred overnight and additional areas are likely to
redevelop across the i-95 corridor to the north of where the
overnight heavy rains fell in Jasper and Beaufort Counties.

Wind concerns have been diminished by the weakening of TS Bonnie
overnight along with ongoing trends. A TS warning remains in effect
North of Edisto Beach this morning but there is a chance that gusts
will struggle to reach tropical storm force from Charleston
northward as Bonnie nears the upper South Carolina Coast if new deep
convection fails to fire today. Mesoscale complexities do remain
numerous and since the GFS continues to indicate good deep layered
instability developing later today across the Tri-County area and
this may result in some deeper convection and stronger wind gusts.

Clouds and rains will hold temps down in the upper 70s many areas
to the north of i-16. Savannah is right on the cusp between dry and
wet as well as cooler versus warmer thus a tricky spot to forecast
for today. Warmer readings are likely close to the Altamaha River
where mid 80s are likely.

Tonight the tropical low should be moving slowly but gradually away
from the Charleston area while skies continue to clear out over
Southeast Georgia. Shower chances over South Carolina will gradually
diminish after midnight with convergence and upper forcing on the
wane.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday: Tropical Storm Bonnie will have likely weakened to a remnant
low (per latest National Hurricane Center forecast) and will be
located somewhere in the vicinity of the northern Charleston county
coast at the start of the period. The low will be very slow to exit
the area, making northeast progress only to the upper South Carolina
coast by Monday evening. Main threats associated with this system
should largely be over, but some decent rain could linger across the
far northern zones during the day. Precipitation chances will then
decrease Monday night as deepest moisture shifts out of the area.

Tuesday into Wednesday: Weather pattern will be in transition as
remnants of TS Bonnie continue to slowly lift northeast along the
coast, and maybe even mill around off the NC coast for a period of
time. Models have trended drier both days, so have decreased PoPs to
now feature mainly slight chance, with a pocket of chances across
the northern zones on Tuesday. Temperatures will be a couple degrees
above normal as heights aloft build through mid-week.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak surface pressure pattern will be in place Thursday into Friday
before a cold front approaches from the west over the weekend, and
potentially stalls near or over the area. Rain chances peak each day
in the afternoon with a relative minimum at night, with the better
chances occurring Saturday & Sunday. Upper ridge over the area will
boost temperatures a couple degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS: Periods of rain, heavy at times, rotating onshore through
the valid time period. MVFR to IFR cigs will continue to
fluctuate as rain intensities deviate and rain bands set up. Deep
moisture remains available and low cigs will probably persist.
Surface winds will probably gust to 20-25 kt at times through the
afternoon hours.

KSAV: the sw shield of rain continued to flirt with the terminal
and it could hang on for quite a while into the afternoon hours.
MVFR to IFR cigs are likely as surface winds slowly back to nw. By
later today, rain chances should begin to diminish with mvfr cigs
probably lingering into early evening.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Aviation conditions expected to improve
late Monday as remnants of TS Bonnie slowly lift northeast away from
the area. Mainly VFR thereafter. Low-end chances for stratus each
night towards daybreak.

&&

.MARINE...
TS Bonnie was pulling away from the offshore Georgia Waters this
morning and TS warnings have been dropped in AMZ374. Small craft
advisories will be in effect for the Georgia waters this morning.
TS force winds are expected off the Charleston County with
hazardous conditions anticipated until the Bonnie exits tonight.
Seas will be subsiding to the south of the Savannah River as
directions have come around to offshore and this should assist the
decreasing trends.

Monday through Friday: Marine conditions expected to improve Monday
as remnants of the tropical system slowly lift northeast through mid
week. Thereafter, weak pressure pattern will be in place before a
cold front approaches from the west late week. After the lingering
effects of the tropical system end, winds/seas should be relatively
quiet with no headlines expected. Winds on average 10 knots or less
with seas 2-3 feet.

Rip Currents: A high risk of rip currents is expected at all
beaches into early next week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS through this evening for GAZ117-119-
     139-141.
SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ045-050-052.
     HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS through this evening for SCZ048>051.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ330-350-352.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ354.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...ECT




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291045
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
645 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Bonnie is southeast of Charleston this morning.
Bonnie will continue to gradually move north northeast and current
forecast is for a landfall just north of Charleston late this
afternoon/early evening. Once Bonnie makes landfall it is expected
to gradually make a turn toward the northeast and off the coast of
the Grand Strand by Monday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Satellite and Radar this morning show Tropical Storm Bonnie
located just southeast of Charleston. The storm is expected to
continue slowly north northeast through the day making landfall
late this afternoon/early evening just north of Charleston. The
convection around the storm had continued to diminish
overnight...but two areas of light/moderate rain continue. One
along the Savannah River continues to move slowly northwest. The
second area is a band that moving ashore along the Grand Strand
and into the Pee Dee Region moving northwest. Regional radar shows
what appears to be the main circulation near the center of Bonnie
spiraling northeast toward the coast near Charleston. Some of the
rain overnight has been locally heavy with amounts from 1 to 3
inches across the Lowcountry along with portions of the extreme
eastern Midlands and southern Midlands/CSRA. At this time...do not
anticipate needing a Flash Flood Watch based on the heaviest
rainfall being more isolate in nature rather than widespread. With
dewpoint temperatures in the middle 60s/lower 70s and pw values
continuing to increase through the morning hours to nearly 2.0
inches expect some of the rainfall to be locally heavy throughout
the day. Some areas could see from 1 to 3 additional inches.

There has been very little lightning with convection overnight
which is not that uncommon with tropical systems. With limited
instability thunderstorms will remain isolated. The possibility
exist for a few gusty winds in stronger convection this afternoon
and tonight as Bonnie moves closer the CWA. Do not expect a
continuous rain through the day and tonight...but periods of
showers along with the possibility of a rumble or two of thunder.
Models indicate the heaviest rainfall today will stretch from the
coast up through the Midlands and then toward the Pee Dee tonight.

Temperatures already mild this morning with most areas in the
middle 60s to lower 70s. Guidance numbers along with current
numbers look reasonably good. Did lower temperatures slightly due
to expected cloudy/mostly cloudy skies along with occasional
showers/tsra.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As TS Bonnie or TS Bonnie the forecast has been reasonably
consistent on a brief stay on land before moving off the South
Carolina coast around Georgetown/Grand Strand. Is is then
forecasted to slowly move to the east northeast for the next few
days. As the low pushes northeast of the CWA Monday into Monday
night...the chances for showers/iso tsra will gradually decrease.
However still expect to see at least a slight chance of a shower
through the remainder of the period.

Expect temperatures to return closer to normal on Monday...but
expect warming reading across the CSRA with more sun/lower rain
chances with cooler reading across the northern Midlands/Pee Dee
with more clouds and rain as Bonnie continues to move away from
the CWA. Overnight lows Monday Night close to guidance and a
little above climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models have come into a little better agreement on a deep trough
moving from west to east toward the end of next week into next
weekend. Both ECMWF and GFS show the trough will push eastward
across the conus. However, the srn portion of the trough slows and
both models indicate a closed low trying to develop across the
lower MS River Valley by the end of the week/next weekend. Will
continue with the diurnal trend of isolated to scattered afternoon
shower and thunderstorm through much of next week, with increasing
rain chances late in the period just ahead of the next cold front.
Have stayed close to current forecast which is for temperatures to
remain generally at or slightly above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tropical Storm Bonnie, currently centered just off the central SC
coast, is expected to move very slowly toward the coast. Associated
rain activity and restrictions expected across our forecast area
(FA).  In the near term, radar loops indicate best threat of heavy
shower activity, with IFR VSBYS at times, will affect AGS/DNL.
Otherwise, latest surface obs indicate MVFR to IFR CIG
restrictions will affect all terminals this morning, with some
uncertainty regarding rain coverage and any diurnal improvement
this afternoon. Satellite and radar currently indicates limited
convection near the coast currently, but additional activity could
develop later today. For now, will assume little overall change
during the TAF period due to very slow movement of the cyclone.
Will concentrate on the near term, following latest radar loops,
surface observation trends, and high resolution model guidance.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain and associated restrictions
probable Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KFFC 290803
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
403 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
Rather uneventful fcst period for north and central GA given TS
Bonnie progged to slowly approach the SC coastline by this evening
then follow the edge of the coast NEWD thru Monday keeping our CWA
in the western subsidence dominated zone. Aside from a few outer
rainbands flirting with the far eastern tier of the area this
morning into afternoon...any pops stay slight to low end chance.
While hi-res solutions indicate isolated shower/storm coverage area-
wide this afternoon /possibly from influence of weak mid-level
moisture axis/...think this is largely overdone so have limited pops
to east and portions of north but couldn`t rule something isolated
elsewhere.

Monday looks to be just general slight pops for diurnally driven
showers/storms. Some discrepancies in the thermal profiles for the
afternoon as the Nam has steeper mid-level lapse rates and decently
higher resultant conditional instability than the GFS. Lack of any
upper wave dynamics in the weakly zonal flow aloft or any low level
boundaries so nothing to weigh into for more organized convective
potential than general isolated threat.

Temps should be near to slightly above norms today aside from cooler
eastern tier given aforementioned outer reach of clouds/precip from
Bonnie. Monday will be very summer-like with highs progged 3-7 deg
above norms and most areas in upper 80s to low 90s.


Baker


.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
The beginning of the period should find Bonnie near coastal NC.
This puts GA in an area of weak dynamics with the potential for
mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Bonnie should continue
northeast as the next upper trough moves into the OH valley late
Thursday and Friday. This should push a frontal boundary into the
southern Appalachians and eventually into GA by the end of the
period as the upper trough continues to deepen through the OH
valley and into the southeast states. Somewhat higher chance pops
area wide for Friday into Saturday.

41


&&



AVIATION...
06Z Update...
VFR conditions expected thru period with mainly mid-level 8-12 kft cigs
working in from the tropical system to the east and afternoon cu
field in 4-6 kft. KAHN is only site with chance high enough to
mention VCSH /mainly after about 09-10z this morning/ though an
isolated shower or thunderstorm isn`t out of the question by this
afternoon for any site. Winds will be tricky for KATL today as
they may be wavering from NNE to NNW but think predominantly will
stay NNW after 14z then perhaps a period late this evening back on
NE site. At least magnitudes should be less than 10kts.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Low on wind direction.
Medium on precip potential this afternoon.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          83  62  90  66 /  30  10  20  10
Atlanta         86  67  89  68 /  20  10  20  10
Blairsville     82  60  84  60 /  30  20  20  10
Cartersville    88  63  89  63 /  20  10  20  10
Columbus        89  67  91  68 /  10  10  20  10
Gainesville     83  64  87  67 /  30  20  20  10
Macon           88  63  91  66 /  10  10  20  10
Rome            89  63  90  63 /  20  10  20  10
Peachtree City  87  62  89  63 /  10  10  20  10
Vidalia         85  66  90  69 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Baker




000
FXUS62 KFFC 290602
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
202 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 748 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

North and central Georgia area sits between TD #2 - which is approx.
150 miles off the South Carolina coast - and a weakening upper level
wave over the lower MS Valley. 12Z sounding at ATL measured a very
dry 0.71" precipitable water value. Dry air is being mixed well down
to the surface with 18-19z dewpts dropping to the upr 40s-lwr 50s
across much of the area. Visible satellite imagery shows eroding CU
field expanding around ATL metro area as mixing occurs.

Next update from National Hurricane Center is not until 5PM EST but
all signs point to TD #2 becoming Tropical Storm Bonnie. Mid and
high level moisture (clouds) will continue to increase across the
area tonight. Daytime heating will help trigger widely scattered
showers w/ isold storms from Sandersville to Vidalia through sunset
this evening, otherwise much of the area will remain dry tonight.

By Sunday, as TD #2 (potential TS Bonnie) moves just inland along
the SC coast, the potential for showers/isold storms will increase
across northeast and east-central Georgia, mainly east/north of I-75
and I-16. Not expecting much westward progression of rain/storms due
to upr lvl ridge building across MS and AL. Little change in temps
tonight through tomorrow night. As tropical "low" advances inland,
sfc winds will become more Northerly with some gusts 20-25MPH
possible across our far southeastern counties - Milledgeville to
Swainsboro to Eastman.

DJN.83

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

Overall forecast thoughts parallel previous shift with limited pops
through early week, then increasing diurnal storm chances mid week
onward. Best rain chances still appear to be later in the week and
into the weekend. Have only made minor adjustments to the max/min
temperatures and weekend pops to account for latest model trends.
Previous forecast discussion still applies and is included below.

31

Models in better consensus with main influencing features of fcst
period. The either tropical depression or storm approaching the SC
coast should slowly turn north to NE late Sunday then hug the
coastline placing it off the NC Outerbanks by late Wednesday. Weak
subsidence west of this system should limit diurnally driven
convection across the CWA into Monday then the chances gradually
increase thru the week with greatest potential Wednesday thru
Friday as we get a south to southwest fetch of deep gulf moisture
and ramped up instability. Some discrepancies exist among
guidance in the evolution of a weak 850-mb low translated from an
amplifying upper trough into the southeast CONUS by
Friday/Saturday. While this could serve to focus more organized or
widespread storm development...the environment should be favorable
of at least scattered coverage anyway with daytime heating.

Above normal temps /AOA 3-7 degrees more than climo/ are on tap
this week with Tuesday expected to be the warmest as progged highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s should be reached for most areas.
Better cloud coverage and storm potential after midweek should
keep local temps moderated a bit more.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
VFR conditions expected thru period with mainly mid-level 8-12 kft cigs
working in from the tropical system to the east and afternoon cu
field in 4-6 kft. KAHN is only site with chance high enough to
mention VCSH /mainly after about 09-10z this morning/ though an
isolated shower or thunderstorm isn`t out of the question by this
afternoon for any site. Winds will be tricky for KATL today as
they may be wavering from NNE to NNW but think predominantly will
stay NNW after 14z then perhaps a period late this evening back on
NE site. At least magnitudes should be less than 10kts.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Low on wind direction.
Medium on precip potential this afternoon.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          84  65  90  67 /  30  10  20  10
Atlanta         86  68  88  69 /  20  10  20  10
Blairsville     82  62  83  61 /  30  20  20  10
Cartersville    88  62  89  64 /  20  10  20  10
Columbus        89  67  91  70 /  10  10  20  10
Gainesville     84  66  87  67 /  30  20  20  10
Macon           88  64  91  66 /  10  10  20  10
Rome            89  64  89  64 /  20  10  20  10
Peachtree City  87  63  89  64 /  10  10  20  10
Vidalia         86  67  90  70 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...Baker




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290008
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
808 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Bonnie over the southwest Atlantic will move
onshore in southern South Carolina Sunday morning, then move
slowly northeast through Tuesday while weakening. A cold front
will then approach the region late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TD 2 has strengthened into TS Bonnie this afternoon though the
forecast path of the system is quite similar to previously. The
latest forecast brings the system onshore between Beaufort and
Charleston Sunday morning as a marginal tropical storm, then moves
it north and then northeast as it quickly weakens. Some gusty
winds will likely develop along the coast overnight with the
strongest winds late tonight into Sunday morning.

A potentially greater concern is the the heavy rainfall. The first
wave of moderate to heavy rain has been centered over the
Charleston metro area with verified rainfall reports ranging from
1 to 1.4" between Kiawah Island and Mount Pleasant. A weak jet
streak was noted earlier this afternoon across central SC/NC which
was enhancing the upper level ascent over southern SC. As this
feature moves north, we may see a slight decrease in rainfall
intensity. Nevertheless, with Precipitable Water values now
approaching 2" along the SC coast and considerable low and mid
level ascent on the north and west periphery of the storm,
widespread rainfall is anticipated over most of southern SC
overnight. Our latest storm total precipitation shows widespread 1
to 3" in southern SC with the highest totals 3-4" over inland
Dorchester and Berkeley counties. Most areas should be able to
handle this amount of rainfall due to fairly dry antecedent
conditions and the fact that the rain will occur over a fairly
long interval. However some localized flooding is possible
especially if heavy rain occurs early Sun morning coincident with
the 2 am high tide in Charleston.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TS Bonnie will be near the SC coast Sunday with the latest NHC
forecast taking the system slowly northeast along/near the upper
SC/lower NC coast coast through Tue. The deeper moisture will
shift northeast of the area with time which will translate to
lowering rain chances and warming temperatures with time. However,
heavy rainfall will be possible at times, especially Sunday, and
this could lead to some localized flooding of mainly low-lying and
poorly- drained areas. Isolated tornadoes possible as well, mainly
along the central SC coast into Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models are in fairly good agreement for the long term period. Weak
pressure pattern will be in place for the latter half of the work
week as whatever remnants of the tropical system meanders off the
mid-Atlantic coast and eventually dissipates. A cold front is then
forecast to approach the region Friday into Saturday, resulting in
an increase in precipitation chances. Temperatures will be near to
slightly above normal as heights aloft build.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS: Periods of rain, heavy at times, rotating onshore tonight.
IFR visibility continuing, eventually lifting to MVFR later
tonight as the rain decreases in intensity somewhat. However IFR
ceilings will likely develop later this evening and persist until
daybreak Sun. Slight improvement expected on Sun though at least
MVFR likely to persist into the afternoon.

KSAV: MVFR ceilings expected overnight with a period of IFR closer
to daybreak Sun. Some rain may skirt past the terminal this
evening and overnight but the heaviest rain will remain east of
the terminal. Improving conditions on Sunday from late morning on.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Periodic flight restrictions into
Monday, especially at KCHS, as TS Bonnie moves across southeast
SC with occasionally heavy/gusty showers and possibly
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
TS Bonnie will bring increasing winds/seas to coastal waters
through tonight. Dangerous conditions anticipated over most of the
marine area as the storm moves into the area. The one zone without
a Tropical Storm Warning...nearshore GA waters...now has a Small
Craft Advisory due to tightening gradient on the western periphery
of the storm.

Sunday through Thursday...TS Bonnie expected to move through the
SC coastal waters Sunday morning before pushing ashore. Expect
improving conditions later Sunday as the system moves ashore and
weakens. We issued a SCA for the near shore GA waters into early
Sunday based on the latest NHC forecast track of Bonnie. SCA
conditions will persist into Sun night across the SC waters.

Rip Currents: A high risk of rip currents is expected at all
beaches into early next week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS through Sunday evening for GAZ117-
     119-139-141.
SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ045-047>052.
     HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS through Sunday evening for
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ330-350-352-374.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...ECT/RJB
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCAE 282324
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
724 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical storm bonnie off the south coast of South Carolina will
move slowly northwest toward the coast overnight. The storm is
expected to make landfall Sunday morning. The storm is expected to
move very slowly northeast along the coast through Monday night. Chances
of rain will increase over the area through Sunday the lower for
Monday and Tuesday. Potential exists for locally heavy rainfall
through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Tropical storm Bonnie remains well offshore with satellite
imagery showing a large area of convection on the northwest side.
Convection has increased near the center of the storm. The storm
may strengthen slightly tonight as the storm moves over the Gulf
Stream.

The heaviest rain this afternoon has remained in the low country
although radar estimates up to 0.75 inch in the far eastern
Midlands. Radar continues to show mainly light rain spreading
west/northwest into the Eastern Midlands...with a few areas of
enhanced convection along the leading edge/outflow...where gusty
winds have been reported to near 30 knots.

Latest High resolution models suggest a lull in the showers across
the Midlands this evening. However expect moisture flux and
isentropic lift may increase late tonight...especially by 09z so
will continue forecast of increasing pops overnight from east to
west. Highest pops in the East Midlands. Heavy rain possible but
more likely after 12z Sunday. With limited instability
thunderstorms will remain isolated. Gusty winds possible in
convection...stronger gradient winds possible late tonight with
approaching storm. Overnight lows in the middle to upper 60s on
track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TD2 should be moving onshore south of Charleston during the
morning on Sunday before slowing the system down significantly through
the late morning just after landfall. The forecast track then begins
to push it more north/northeast parallel to the coast into sunday
night. The models all bring plenty of moisture into the region by
Sunday morning, especially in areas just to the north of the
track. This will bring plenty of showers and isolated storms to
the eastern half of the cwa. Expect to see some wraparound
moisture to possibly making it back towards the csra through the
day also. Storm total QPF amounts of between 1 to 3 inches with
isolated higher amounts will be possible across the eastern
Midlands, Pee Dee, and Catawba areas. Across the Western Midlands
and much of the CSRA, expecting up to an inch, with isolated
higher amounts. Biggest issues should revolve around urban and
small stream flooding potential more than anything. As the low
pushes northeast of the cwa Sunday night into Monday, the rain
chances will decrease. However still expect to see at least a
slight chance of a shower through the remainder of the period.

Temperatures on Sunday will be tricky. With plenty of cloud cover
and rainfall, temperatures may struggle to get out of the 70s for
many areas. Areas outside of the rainfall may be able to actually
climb into the 80s. Readings return a little closer to normal for
Sunday night through Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models have come into a little better agreement on a deep trough
moving from west to east toward the end of next week into next weekend.
Will continue with the diurnal trend of isolated to scattered
afternoon shower and thunderstorm through much of next week, with
increasing rain chances late in the period just ahead of the next
cold front. Have stayed close to current forecast which is for
temperatures to remain generally at or slightly above normal
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through this evening. High confidence of
MVFR after 06z through Sunday

Tropical Storm Bonnie off the south coast of South Carolina will
move very slowly toward the coast overnight. Area of MVFR
ceilings/visibility remains along the coast early this evening. As
moisture flux increases overnight expect ceilings to lower to MVFR
across the region. Areas of showers/possibly heavy toward 12z
Sunday. Widespread rain with embedded heavier showers during the
day Sunday will result in continued restrictions. IFR possible but
confidence remains low on timing. Gusty winds possible in any
stronger convection...and gradient winds will likely increase by
Sunday afternoon...northwest to northeast 10 to 20 knots with
gusts to 25 knots. Stronger winds possible near the OGB terminal.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions probable in showers and
possible thunderstorms continuing through Monday as the tropical
system moves very slowly northeastward along the coast.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 281852
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
252 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

North and central Georgia area sits between TD #2 - which is approx.
150 miles off the South Carolina coast - and a weakening upper level
wave over the lower MS Valley. 12Z sounding at ATL measured a very
dry 0.71" precipitable water value. Dry air is being mixed well down
to the surface with 18-19z dewpts dropping to the upr 40s-lwr 50s
across much of the area. Visible satellite imagery shows eroding CU
field expanding around ATL metro area as mixing occurs.

Next update from National Hurricane Center is not until 5PM EST but
all signs point to TD #2 becoming Tropical Storm Bonnie. Mid and
high level moisture (clouds) will continue to increase across the
area tonight. Daytime heating will help trigger widely scattered
showers w/ isold storms from Sandersville to Vidalia through sunset
this evening, otherwise much of the area will remain dry tonight.

By Sunday, as TD #2 (potential TS Bonnie) moves just inland along
the SC coast, the potential for showers/isold storms will increase
across northeast and east-central Georgia, mainly east/north of I-75
and I-16. Not expecting much westward progression of rain/storms due
to upr lvl ridge building across MS and AL. Little change in temps
tonight through tomorrow night. As tropical "low" advances inland,
sfc winds will become more Northerly with some gusts 20-25MPH
possible across our far southeastern counties - Milledgeville to
Swainsboro to Eastman.

DJN.83

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

Overall forecast thoughts parallel previous shift with limited pops
through early week, then increasing diurnal storm chances mid week
onward. Best rain chances still appear to be later in the week and
into the weekend. Have only made minor adjustments to the max/min
temperatures and weekend pops to account for latest model trends.
Previous forecast discussion still applies and is included below.

31

Models in better consensus with main influencing features of fcst
period. The either tropical depression or storm approaching the SC
coast should slowly turn north to NE late Sunday then hug the
coastline placing it off the NC Outerbanks by late Wednesday. Weak
subsidence west of this system should limit diurnally driven
convection across the CWA into Monday then the chances gradually
increase thru the week with greatest potential Wednesday thru
Friday as we get a south to southwest fetch of deep gulf moisture
and ramped up instability. Some discrepancies exist among
guidance in the evolution of a weak 850-mb low translated from an
amplifying upper trough into the southeast CONUS by
Friday/Saturday. While this could serve to focus more organized or
widespread storm development...the environment should be favorable
of at least scattered coverage anyway with daytime heating.

Above normal temps /AOA 3-7 degrees more than climo/ are on tap
this week with Tuesday expected to be the warmest as progged highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s should be reached for most areas.
Better cloud coverage and storm potential after midweek should
keep local temps moderated a bit more.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions will prevail this period. Increasing mid and high
level moisture from TD #2 will work northwest across central/north
GA through tonight. Easterly sfc winds will gradually become
north-northwest by midday Sunday as Tropical Low (TD #2) moves
inland across South Carolina. Any organized convection should
remain east of ATL but cannot rule out a pop-up -SHRA after 15z
Sunday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium to High on wind direction/shift to NW Sunday.
High all other elements.

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          63  84  65  90 /  20  30  20  20
Atlanta         67  86  68  88 /   5  20  10  20
Blairsville     58  82  62  83 /  10  30  20  30
Cartersville    60  88  62  89 /  10  20  10  20
Columbus        65  89  67  91 /   5  10  10  20
Gainesville     65  84  66  87 /  10  20  20  20
Macon           63  88  64  91 /  10  10  10  20
Rome            60  89  64  89 /  10  10  10  20
Peachtree City  61  87  63  89 /   5  10  10  20
Vidalia         68  86  67  90 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DJN.83




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281829
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
229 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical depression two is currently about 190 miles south
southeast of Charleston and is moving to the northwest at 13 mph.
Strengthening to a tropical storm is expected tonight with the
storm reaching the Charleston coast Sunday morning. Sunday
afternoon the storm is expected to to northeasterly and move very
slowly along the coast Monday and Tuesday. Chances of rain will
increase over the area through Sunday the lower for Monday and
Tuesday. Potential exists for locally heavy rainfall through
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Tropical depression 2 remains well offshore with satellite
imagery showing a large area of convection on the northwest side.
Area WSR-88D network shows showers beginning to reach the coast
with a few isolated showers reaching the eastern Midlands. Winds
currently across the area are 5 to 8 mph with winds along the
coast around 10 mph. Showers have begun moving into the far
eastern Midlands and will expand into the central Midlands late
this afternoon and the western Midlands this evening. Although
there is potential for thunderstorms currently coverage remains
limited so will remain with slight chance of thunderstorms. Winds
overnight will accelerate slowly with the eastern Midlands seeing
around 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph by daybreak Sunday and lower
speeds elsewhere. Main concern overnight will be potential for
locally heavy rain...however with highest moistures not arriving
until late in the period do not expect any flooding issues
overnight. High temperatures this afternoon remain on track for
the lower to middle 80s with overnight lows in the middle to upper
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TD2 should be moving onshore south of Charleston during the
morning on Sunday before slowing the system down significantly through
the late morning just after landfall. The forecast track then begins
to push it more north/northeast parallel to the coast into sunday
night. The models all bring plenty of moisture into the region by
Sunday morning, especially in areas just to the north of the
track. This will bring plenty of showers and isolated storms to
the eastern half of the cwa. Expect to see some wraparound
moisture to possibly making it back towards the csra through the
day also. Storm total QPF amounts of between 1 to 3 inches with
isolated higher amounts will be possible across the eastern
Midlands, Pee Dee, and Catawba areas. Across the Western Midlands
and much of the CSRA, expecting up to an inch, with isolated
higher amounts. Biggest issues should revolve around urban and
small stream flooding potential more than anything. As the low
pushes northeast of the cwa Sunday night into Monday, the rain
chances will decrease. However still expect to see at least a
slight chance of a shower through the remainder of the period.

Temperatures on Sunday will be tricky. With plenty of cloud cover
and rainfall, temperatures may struggle to get out of the 70s for
many areas. Areas outside of the rainfall may be able to actually
climb into the 80s. Readings return a little closer to normal for
Sunday night through Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models have come into a little better agreement on a deep trough
moving from west to east toward the end of next week into next weekend.
Will continue with the diurnal trend of isolated to scattered
afternoon shower and thunderstorm through much of next week, with
increasing rain chances late in the period just ahead of the next
cold front. Have stayed close to current forecast which is for
temperatures to remain generally at or slightly above normal
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through this evening with MVFR for much of
tonight.

Tropical depression 2 continues to approach the SC coast and will
be just off the CHS coast by daybreak Sunday. Clouds associated
with a large area of convection on the northwest side of the storm
continue to move onshore and will move into the taf sites over
the next several hours. Due to the isolated nature of
thunderstorms associated with the system have remained without
mention of thunder in the tafs. Main concern through the period
will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall...with the
greatest chance of heavy rain toward daybreak Sunday at
CAE/CUB/OGB. Winds will slowly accelerate overnight with gusts up
to 17 knots beginning around 10z at OGB and 14z elsewhere

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions probable in showers and
possible thunderstorms continuing through Monday as the tropical
system moves very slowly northeastward along the coast.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KFFC 281748 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
148 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Tafs (aviation).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 735 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

Tropical depression two will be moving northwestward toward the SC
coast during the short term period. At this time...at least part of
GA should be under the subsidence around the depression...however a
few showers and thunderstorms approaching the east central zones are
possible. So...have continued with slight chance pops for that area
this afternoon and tonight. Also...the far northwest corner of the
state may be affected by the increase in southerly moist flow into
the central Gulf Coast area. a slight chance of convection still
looks reasonable for the area north and west of Cedartown to Ellijay
for this afternoon. Depending on the location of the depression on
Sunday...it may be possible for showers or thunderstorms to
circulate into GA. The westward extent of any precipitation is still
questionable. For now...chance or slight chance pops have been
included for much of the north and east central zones for Sunday.

41

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

Models in better consensus with main influencing features of fcst
period. The either tropical depression or storm approaching the SC
coast should slowly turn north to NE late Sunday then hug the
coastline placing it off the NC Outerbanks by late Wednesday. Weak
subsidence west of this system should limit diurnally driven
convection across the CWA into Monday then the chances gradually
increase thru the week with greatest potential Wednesday thru
Friday as we get a south to southwest fetch of deep gulf moisture
and ramped up instability. Some discrepancies exist among
guidance in the evolution of a weak 850-mb low translated from an
amplifying upper trough into the southeast CONUS by
Friday/Saturday. While this could serve to focus more organized or
widespread storm development...the environment should be favorable
of at least scattered coverage anyway with daytime heating.

Above normal temps /AOA 3-7 degrees more than climo/ are on tap
this week with Tuesday expected to be the warmest as progged highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s should be reached for most areas.
Better cloud coverage and storm potential after midweek should
keep local temps moderated a bit more.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions will prevail this period. Increasing mid and high
level moisture from TD #2 will work northwest across central/north
GA through tonight. Easterly sfc winds will gradually become
north-northwest by midday Sunday as Tropical Low (TD #2) moves
inland across South Carolina. Any organized convection should
remain east of ATL but cannot rule out a pop-up -SHRA after 15z
Sunday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium to High on wind direction/shift to NW Sunday.
High all other elements.

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          86  64  86  66 /   5  20  30  20
Atlanta         86  66  87  69 /   5   5  20  10
Blairsville     82  60  82  62 /  10  10  30  20
Cartersville    87  62  88  65 /  10  10  20  10
Columbus        87  66  89  70 /   5   5  10  10
Gainesville     84  65  85  66 /   5  10  20  20
Macon           88  64  89  66 /  10  10  10  10
Rome            87  62  89  65 /  20  10  10  10
Peachtree City  86  61  87  65 /   5   5  10  10
Vidalia         86  67  87  70 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DJN.83




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281132
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
732 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Two over the southwest Atlantic will approach
the South Carolina coast through tonight, before moving onshore
over Sunday before weakening. The low could linger in the vicinity
into early next week before eventually lifting away to the northeast.
A cold front will approach the region late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for the South
Carolina Coastal areas. This ahead of the early season tropical
system expected to remain a depression for much of the day prior
to reaching the Gulf Stream tonight. Deep moisture will continue
to advect into the Coastal Carolinas today with bands of showers
expected to increase in coverage across Eastern South Carolina;
especially during the afternoon hours from Beaufort northward.
Widespread clouds will hold temps down into the lower 80s across
northern zones. Across inland Georgia, only some high clouds to
start the day and models indicate a fair amount of destabilization
by the afternoon. we maintain a slight chance of showers and tstms
to the west of I-95 this afternoon as convection will tend to be
more diurnal bound on a decent 850 MB theta-e ridge across our
inland Georgia Zones. It will become breezy along coastal areas
this afternoon as the sea breeze develops along with various
mesoscale shower bands.

Tonight...The tropical low will reach the Gulf Stream waters and
just about all of the model guidance indicates that any strengthening
should be modest as upper level wind shear atop the system is
forecast to remain rather substantial. Pops will be categorical
across across much of the Charleston Tri-County area as strong low
level convergence and deep tropical moisture with pwats of 2
inches or better in place. Rain will likely be heavy at times with
potential for tstms. Most of the rain will likely fall to the
north of the Savannah River overnight. Winds ahead of the tropical
system will ramp up along the coast with potential of tropical
storm force winds in the warning area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The forecast through the short term period continues to remain quite
complex and still somewhat uncertain, highly dependent upon the
evolution of Tropical Depression Two over the southwest Atlantic
between Bermuda and the Bahamas.

The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center continues
to track a weakening tropical storm/depression along coastal
Charleston County on Sunday Afternoon. Gusty winds associated with
the low are expected to gradually subside as the low either stalls
or hooks briefly before beginning to slide slowly to the northeast
sunday night. the ECMWF had an interesting solution on the 00Z run
with a good bit of upper forcing from a 45 kt upper jet streak enhancing
heavy rain across the South Carolina forecast area on the western
side of the surface low. The QPF differences between the models remain
quite substantial and revolve not only on complex mesoscale details
but on synoptic forcing and atop the system. We have bumped up QPF
to 2-3 inches across the Charleston Tri-County but some higher
amounts could fall back west into places like Hampton and Allendale
Counties.

Due to the small and likely compact nature to the system there will
likely only be some occasional convective bands that contain thunder
storms, so we are showing no more than chance t-storms through the
period. If deep convection were to develop on a knot near the
center, there could be small chances for rotation given 25-30 kt
of deep layered shear but the window at this time appears too
small to play any tornado risk across Eastern Charleston and
Berkeley Counties.The risk for Tropical Storm force winds will be
highest Tonight into early Sunday as the storm reaches the coast.
the areas most likely to experience Tropical Storm winds with
gusts up to 40 mph, will be immediate coastal South Carolina,
including the Charleston metro. Winds of this magnitude may bring
down a few trees and powerlines. Some power outages are possible.

Model solutions still vary on the evolution of Tropical Depression
Two into Tuesday, but consensus slowly lifts the weakening low
northeast from north coastal South Carolina towards the North
Carolina Outer Banks by Tuesday. Thus, the main window for any
threats with this system will have ended. Assuming this track
holds, precipitation chances should decrease through the day
Monday as deepest moisture moves out of the area. Locations across
southeast Georgia could very well be dry much of the day given the
position relative to the low. Current forecast has PoPs ranging
from 40-50% north to around 20% in the south. On Tuesday, rain
chances revolve around the more typical summertime diurnal
convection. High temperatures will be near normal in the mid 80s
to around 90 (highest across southeast Georgia), with lows mainly
in the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models are in fairly good agreement for the long term period. Weak
pressure pattern will be in place for the latter half of the work
week as whatever remnants of the tropical system remains meanders
off the mid-Atlantic coast and eventually dissipates. A cold front
is then forecast to approach the region Friday into Saturday,
resulting in an increase in precipitation chances. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above normal as heights aloft build.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS: VFR until later today. Could see cigs dropping to mvfr this
afternoon or evening, as Tropical Depression 2 approaches. Showers
associated with very out fringes of the system may develop in the
vicinity by mid to late morning, but greater chances still appear
to be in the late afternoon and evening hours. Diurnal enhancements
including the sea breeze will result in some wind gusts near 20 kt
this afternoon. Tonight rains will increase and become heavier,
winds should become gusty as the gradient tightens but have not
shown any gusts topping 20 kt as yet.

KSAV: VFR conditions will likely persist. Deeper moisture is
forecast to remain north of the terminal. There may be a few
spotty light showers around the area this morning and again this
afternoon into the overnight, but potential not enough to add any
vchs or shra to the KSAV terminal forecast.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Chances for at least periodic flight
restrictions into early next week, especially at KCHS, as the
tropical system impacts coastal South Carolina.

&&

.MARINE...
Tropical Depression Two currently located around 265 miles southeast
of Charleston this morning will track northwest towards the area
today, and eventually move onshore somewhere in the vicinity of
Charleston Sunday afternoon. Winds/seas will deteriorate as result,
with tropical storm conditions expected over the nearshore SC waters
(including the Charleston Harbor) and portions of the outer Georgia
waters late tonight into Sunday, where Tropical Storm Warnings
remain in effect.

Some uncertainty still remains in the track of Tropical Depression
Two, but consensus has the low meandering in the vicinity early
Monday before slowly lifting to the northeast into Tuesday. Latest
National Hurricane Center forecast indicates that the system will
weaken as this occurs, so marine conditions are expected to steadily
improve. Thereafter, winds/seas should remain below any headline
criteria through late week.

Rip Currents: A high risk of rip currents all beaches today and
elevated risks into early next week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS through this evening for GAZ117-119-
     139-141.
SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ045-047>052.
     HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS through this evening for SCZ048>051.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ330-350-352-374.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...ECT




000
FXUS62 KFFC 281132
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
735 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

Tropical depression two will be moving northwestward toward the SC
coast during the short term period. At this time...at least part of
GA should be under the subsidence around the depression...however a
few showers and thunderstorms approaching the east central zones are
possible. So...have continued with slight chance pops for that area
this afternoon and tonight. Also...the far northwest corner of the
state may be affected by the increase in southerly moist flow into
the central Gulf Coast area. a slight chance of convection still
looks reasonable for the area north and west of Cedartown to Ellijay
for this afternoon. Depending on the location of the depression on
Sunday...it may be possible for showers or thunderstorms to
circulate into GA. The westward extent of any precipitation is still
questionable. For now...chance or slight chance pops have been
included for much of the north and east central zones for Sunday.

41

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

Models in better consensus with main influencing features of fcst
period. The either tropical depression or storm approaching the SC
coast should slowly turn north to NE late Sunday then hug the
coastline placing it off the NC Outerbanks by late Wednesday. Weak
subsidence west of this system should limit diurnally driven
convection across the CWA into Monday then the chances gradually
increase thru the week with greatest potential Wednesday thru
Friday as we get a south to southwest fetch of deep gulf moisture
and ramped up instability. Some discrepancies exist among
guidance in the evolution of a weak 850-mb low translated from an
amplifying upper trough into the southeast CONUS by
Friday/Saturday. While this could serve to focus more organized or
widespread storm development...the environment should be favorable
of at least scattered coverage anyway with daytime heating.

Above normal temps /AOA 3-7 degrees more than climo/ are on tap
this week with Tuesday expected to be the warmest as progged highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s should be reached for most areas.
Better cloud coverage and storm potential after midweek should
keep local temps moderated a bit more.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR to continue for this cycle. Few to scattered 050-060 mainly during
the afternoon. Winds east to southeast 6 to 9kt after 14z. Only isolated
convection mainly north and east of the taf sites today.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
High on all elements.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          86  64  86  66 /  10  20  30  10
Atlanta         86  66  87  69 /   5  10  20   5
Blairsville     82  60  82  62 /  10  20  30  10
Cartersville    87  62  88  65 /  20  10  20   5
Columbus        87  66  89  70 /   5  10   5   5
Gainesville     84  65  85  66 /   5  20  30  10
Macon           88  64  89  66 /  10  10  20   5
Rome            87  62  89  65 /  20  10  20  10
Peachtree City  86  61  87  65 /   5  10  20   5
Vidalia         86  67  87  70 /  20  20  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Baker
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KCAE 280539
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
139 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the forecast area through tonight.
Newly formed tropical depression two is forecast to become
tropical storm Bonnie on Saturday and push into the coastal plain
early Sunday. Chances of rain will increase over the weekend with
potential for locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Moisture will begin increasing in advance of the approaching
tropical depression two, with increasing mid to high level
cloudiness expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Tropical depression two will be steady moving northwestward
approaching the coast on Saturday while a plume of deep tropical
moisture moves inland over the forecast area with precipitable
water values pushing well over 1.5 inches. Expecting Saturday
morning to remain mainly dry across the cwa, then increasing
shower and thunderstorm chances across the east during the
afternoon. Rain/thunderstorm chances continue Sunday into Monday
as the low slowly moves through the region. Highest chances for
precip will remain greatest across the eastern counties, with pops
trending lower the further west you go. Trended towards the WPC
qpf amounts through the period due to wide spread in the forecast
qpf guidance. With the potential slow movement to the low, can
not rule out periods of heavy rainfall which could produce
localized flooding.

Used the guidance consensus for the temperature forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Much uncertainty in the longer term forecast period. Models
differ on the upper air solutions through the middle of the week,
with the gfs showing a weak ridge north of the cwa and a weak low
just east. The ecmwf shows a trough east of the area, and high
pressure over the region. All in all, can not rule out any
isolated or scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms any day
next week. Temperature forecast was a general blend of guidance,
which is generally at or above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected today, with the possible exception of fog
in the very near term at AGS.

Main focus will be on tropical cyclone over the Atlantic progged
to move NW towards the SC coast today and tonight, then slow down
or become nearly stationary near the SC coast Sunday.

Current satellite and surface obs indicate area of stratocumulus
cloudiness, with CIGS above VFR level, near the coast drifting
north. This would appear to preclude fog at OGB, and may impede
fog at AGS later tonight, although appearance of clear skies at
AGS in the very near term may allow some fog to form there.

Latest array of high resolution models indicate shower activity
ahead of the approaching cyclone could reach mainly the southern
and eastern forecast area (FA) this afternoon, with some
increasing chances of rain and associated lowering of CIGS
tonight, again mainly CAE/CUB and OGB, with bulk of activity
appearing to stay mainly east of AGS/DNL through tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions probable in showers and
possible thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night, possibly lingering
into Monday or longer, as a tropical system stalls or moves only
slowly up the coast.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




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