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000
FXUS62 KCHS 220306
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1106 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS EVENING...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH AND WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE
THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
CONTINUES BELOW.

TONIGHT...AS A ROBUST AND DEEP-LAYERED GYRE NEAR KPIT THIS EVENING
WILL DROP TOWARD THE DELMARVA LATE AND SEND A MODEST COLD FRONT INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING...BEFORE IT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DRY...WITH AT MOST A FEW
ALTOCUMULUS AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN SC.
OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CRYSTAL CLEAR WITH THE VERTICAL VOID OF ANY
MOISTURE. COLD ADVECTION STARTS IN EARNEST AFTER ABOUT 03-05Z WITHIN
A DEEP NW AND NORTH FLOW...AND WE LOOK FOR A GOOD DROP IN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 47-50 ALONG THE NW TIER...TO THE
LOWER OR MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE US-17 CORRIDOR...TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...MUCH COOLER AND DRYER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
SOME 8-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW 70S...COOLEST
OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE
THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK...WITH PERHAPS SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM
RADIATIONAL COOLING INLAND. IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOW/MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS
TO THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN...BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO
NORTHWEST LATE WEEK. A FULL SUN ALONG WITH A MORE FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT EACH DAY SUPPORTS GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPS...WITH LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUGGESTING OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 70S ON THURSDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S ON
FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE THIS EVENING...INCOMING NEW MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW
WINDS BEING RIGHT ON THE CUSP OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. NO
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE
15-20 KT...THOUGH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE 06-08Z WINDOW AND WILL BE STRONGEST
THROUGH AROUND 12Z. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM NEAR 2 FT THIS EVENING
TO 3-5 FT LATE TONIGHT...GREATEST ACROSS AMZ374.

WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AS A RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 15-20 KTS
WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER NORTHERN SC WATERS WHEN COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS STRONGEST WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK AND IS THEN REINFORCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/33/DPB




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000
FXUS62 KCAE 220202
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1002 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THE
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. MIXING
OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION
EXPECT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT LOWS AROUND 40. PATCHY FROST MAY
OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT BECAUSE OF LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COMPARED TO THE GFS THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED WITH A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS INDICATED DRY AIR.
THE MODELS SHOWED SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING DURING THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAYED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA REPLACED BY RIDGING BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORTED TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A DRY COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING
BRINGING A FEW STRATO-CU TO THE REGION. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER EAST AND
SKIES BECOME CLEAR. FOG NOT FORECAST TONIGHT DUE TO MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND DRY AIR MASS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 220202
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1002 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THE
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. MIXING
OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION
EXPECT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT LOWS AROUND 40. PATCHY FROST MAY
OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT BECAUSE OF LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COMPARED TO THE GFS THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED WITH A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS INDICATED DRY AIR.
THE MODELS SHOWED SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING DURING THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAYED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA REPLACED BY RIDGING BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORTED TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A DRY COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING
BRINGING A FEW STRATO-CU TO THE REGION. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER EAST AND
SKIES BECOME CLEAR. FOG NOT FORECAST TONIGHT DUE TO MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND DRY AIR MASS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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000
FXUS62 KFFC 220142 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
942 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS REMAIN ON TRACK...NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR
THIS EVENING AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CWA REMAINS
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EAST COAST AND THIS ALLOWS THE NW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE. WILL SEE
COOLER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS COMPARED TO TODAY WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THAT WILL SERVE TO REINFORCE THE DRY
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS VERY ISOLATED AREAS IN NE GEORGIA TONIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST FOR THESE AREAS. TOO ISOLATED THOUGH
FOR A FROST ADVISORY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL EVEN
MORE FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND EVEN THOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST IS A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THIS STILL RESULTS IN
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA THAT DIP DOWN
INTO THE MID 30S.

11

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING
DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF BRINGS A SHORTWAVE INTO THE TN VALLEY THAT
WOULD BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE TO FAR NORTH GEORGIA. IT
KEEPS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. THE GFS
THOUGH IS MUCH MORE SUBTLE WITH THIS FEATURE AND DOES NOT BRING
ANY IMPACTS INTO THE CWA. AT THIS POINT EITHER WAY...AREA REMAINS
DRY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THOUGH FOR ANY CHANGES WITH THIS
SYSTEM. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS OUTSIDE THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...GENERALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND 12Z
ECMWF RUN IS COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH GFS IN REGARDS TO THIS
SYSTEM.

11

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 248 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH RIDGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. GUIDANCE DEFINITELY TRENDING COOLER WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME MEMBERS INDICATING LOWS AROUND FREEZING FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. WENT WITH A BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND FOR NOW WHICH FOR THE MOST PART DOES KEEP MOST
AREAS ABOVE FREEZING BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. APPEARS WE MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE METRO BUT
LIGHTER WIND TO THE NORTH SHOULD YIELD PATCHY TO PERHAPS EVEN
AREAS OF FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH ONLY THREAT OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THE NEXT
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE JUST OUTSIDE
OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE AND 12Z EURO DID NOT EVEN PICK UP ON THIS
POTENTIAL BUT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 00Z EURO BEFORE MAKING FINAL
DECISION ON POPS. FOR NOW THOUGH...LEANING TOWARD CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

DEESE

&&

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE 06Z-14Z...HOWEVER WITH WINDS ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING
BEHIND YET ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT I HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE ANY
RESTRICTIONS OUT OF THE ALL TAF SITES. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...DIMINISHING TO 3-8KT BY 03Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          43  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         47  67  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     38  62  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    42  66  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        49  72  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  66  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           45  73  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            41  66  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  41  69  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         53  73  47  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20






000
FXUS62 KCAE 212350
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
750 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THE
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. MIXING OVERNIGHT
SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT LOWS AROUND 40. PATCHY FROST MAY
OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT BECAUSE OF LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COMPARED TO THE GFS THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED WITH A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS INDICATED DRY AIR.
THE MODELS SHOWED SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING DURING THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAYED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA REPLACED BY RIDGING BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORTED TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A DRY COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING
BRINGING A FEW STRATO-CU TO THE REGION. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER EAST AND SKIES
BECOME CLEAR. FOG NOT FORECAST TONIGHT DUE TO MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND DRY AIR MASS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 212349
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
749 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...AS A ROBUST AND DEEP-LAYERED GYRE NEAR KPIT THIS EVENING
WILL DROP TOWARD THE DELMARVA LATE AND SEND A MODEST COLD FRONT INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING...BEFORE IT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DRY...WITH AT MOST A FEW
ALTOCUMULUS AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN SC.
OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CRYSTAL CLEAR WITH THE VERTICAL VOID OF ANY
MOISTURE. COLD ADVECTION STARTS IN EARNEST AFTER ABOUT 03-05Z WITHIN
A DEEP NW AND NORTH FLOW...AND WE LOOK FOR A GOOD DROP IN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 47-50 ALONG THE NW TIER...TO THE
LOWER OR MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE US-17 CORRIDOR...TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...MUCH COOLER AND DRYER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
SOME 8-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW 70S...COOLEST
OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE
THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK...WITH PERHAPS SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM
RADIATIONAL COOLING INLAND. IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOW/MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS
TO THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN...BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO
NORTHWEST LATE WEEK. A FULL SUN ALONG WITH A MORE FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT EACH DAY SUPPORTS GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPS...WITH LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUGGESTING OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 70S ON THURSDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S ON
FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS
EVENING...PASSING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. A DECENT NW
TO NORTH POST-FRONTAL SURGE WILL OCCUR AS COLD ADVECTION MIXES A
GOOD PART OF THE 25 GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS. WE DELIBERATED LONG AND
HARD ON WHETHER OR NOT TO HOIST THE SCA FLAGS...BUT PRESSURE RISES
OF 1-2 MB FROM ABOUT 09-12Z AND ONLY AROUND AN 8-10 DEGREE SPREAD OF
THE COOLER AIR ATOP THE WARMER WATERS SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS WILL
STAY JUST BELOW THE REQUIRED SCA CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
BUILD FROM NEAR 2 FT THIS EVENING TO 3-5 FT LATE TONIGHT...GREATEST
ACROSS AMZ374.

WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AS A RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 15-20 KTS
WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER NORTHERN SC WATERS WHEN COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS STRONGEST WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK AND IS THEN REINFORCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...33/DPB





000
FXUS62 KFFC 212338 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CWA REMAINS
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EAST COAST AND THIS ALLOWS THE NW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE. WILL SEE
COOLER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS COMPARED TO TODAY WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THAT WILL SERVE TO REINFORCE THE DRY
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS VERY ISOLATED AREAS IN NE GEORGIA TONIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST FOR THESE AREAS. TOO ISOLATED THOUGH
FOR A FROST ADVISORY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL EVEN
MORE FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND EVEN THOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST IS A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THIS STILL RESULTS IN
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA THAT DIP DOWN
INTO THE MID 30S.

11


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING
DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF BRINGS A SHORTWAVE INTO THE TN VALLEY THAT
WOULD BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE TO FAR NORTH GEORGIA. IT
KEEPS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. THE GFS
THOUGH IS MUCH MORE SUBTLE WITH THIS FEATURE AND DOES NOT BRING
ANY IMPACTS INTO THE CWA. AT THIS POINT EITHER WAY...AREA REMAINS
DRY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THOUGH FOR ANY CHANGES WITH THIS
SYSTEM. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS OUTSIDE THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...GENERALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND 12Z
ECMWF RUN IS COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH GFS IN REGARDS TO THIS
SYSTEM.

11

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 248 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH RIDGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. GUIDANCE DEFINITELY TRENDING COOLER WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME MEMBERS INDICATING LOWS AROUND FREEZING FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. WENT WITH A BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND FOR NOW WHICH FOR THE MOST PART DOES KEEP MOST
AREAS ABOVE FREEZING BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. APPEARS WE MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE METRO BUT
LIGHTER WIND TO THE NORTH SHOULD YIELD PATCHY TO PERHAPS EVEN
AREAS OF FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH ONLY THREAT OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THE NEXT
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE JUST OUTSIDE
OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE AND 12Z EURO DID NOT EVEN PICK UP ON THIS
POTENTIAL BUT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 00Z EURO BEFORE MAKING FINAL
DECISION ON POPS. FOR NOW THOUGH...LEANING TOWARD CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE 06Z-14Z...HOWEVER WITH WINDS ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING
BEHIND YET ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT I HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE ANY
RESTRICTIONS OUT OF THE ALL TAF SITES. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...DIMINISHING TO 3-8KT BY 03Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          43  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         47  67  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     38  62  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    42  66  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        49  72  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  66  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           45  73  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            41  66  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  41  69  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         53  73  47  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17/11
AVIATION...11









000
FXUS62 KFFC 212338 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CWA REMAINS
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EAST COAST AND THIS ALLOWS THE NW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE. WILL SEE
COOLER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS COMPARED TO TODAY WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THAT WILL SERVE TO REINFORCE THE DRY
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS VERY ISOLATED AREAS IN NE GEORGIA TONIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST FOR THESE AREAS. TOO ISOLATED THOUGH
FOR A FROST ADVISORY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL EVEN
MORE FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND EVEN THOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST IS A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THIS STILL RESULTS IN
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA THAT DIP DOWN
INTO THE MID 30S.

11


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING
DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF BRINGS A SHORTWAVE INTO THE TN VALLEY THAT
WOULD BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE TO FAR NORTH GEORGIA. IT
KEEPS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. THE GFS
THOUGH IS MUCH MORE SUBTLE WITH THIS FEATURE AND DOES NOT BRING
ANY IMPACTS INTO THE CWA. AT THIS POINT EITHER WAY...AREA REMAINS
DRY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THOUGH FOR ANY CHANGES WITH THIS
SYSTEM. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS OUTSIDE THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...GENERALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND 12Z
ECMWF RUN IS COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH GFS IN REGARDS TO THIS
SYSTEM.

11

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 248 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH RIDGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. GUIDANCE DEFINITELY TRENDING COOLER WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME MEMBERS INDICATING LOWS AROUND FREEZING FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. WENT WITH A BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND FOR NOW WHICH FOR THE MOST PART DOES KEEP MOST
AREAS ABOVE FREEZING BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. APPEARS WE MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE METRO BUT
LIGHTER WIND TO THE NORTH SHOULD YIELD PATCHY TO PERHAPS EVEN
AREAS OF FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH ONLY THREAT OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THE NEXT
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE JUST OUTSIDE
OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE AND 12Z EURO DID NOT EVEN PICK UP ON THIS
POTENTIAL BUT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 00Z EURO BEFORE MAKING FINAL
DECISION ON POPS. FOR NOW THOUGH...LEANING TOWARD CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE 06Z-14Z...HOWEVER WITH WINDS ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING
BEHIND YET ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT I HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE ANY
RESTRICTIONS OUT OF THE ALL TAF SITES. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...DIMINISHING TO 3-8KT BY 03Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          43  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         47  67  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     38  62  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    42  66  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        49  72  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  66  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           45  73  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            41  66  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  41  69  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         53  73  47  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17/11
AVIATION...11









000
FXUS62 KCAE 212114
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
514 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THE
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. MIXING OVERNIGHT
SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT LOWS AROUND 40. PATCHY FROST MAY
OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT BECAUSE OF LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COMPARED TO THE GFS THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED WITH A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS INDICATED DRY AIR.
THE MODELS SHOWED SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING DURING THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAYED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA REPLACED BY RIDGING BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORTED TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM WEST
TO EAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW STRATO-CU CLOUDS
ALONG THE FRONT WHICH MAY REACH THE TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AND REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS. FOG NOT
FORECAST TONIGHT DUE TO MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DRY AIR
MASS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 211946
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
346 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THE
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. MIXING OVERNIGHT
SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT LOWS AROUND 40. PATCHY FROST MAY
OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT BECAUSE OF LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COMPARED TO THE GFS THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED WITH A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS INDICATED DRY AIR.
THE MODELS SHOWED SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING DURING THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAYED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA REPLACED BY RIDGING BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORTED TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

UPPER TROF AXIS EAST OF THE AREA...SKIES CLEAR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY SEE A FEW STRATO-CU CLOUDS
ALONG FRONT. WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK GENERALLY UNDER
10KT. BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING NW WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KT
EXPECTED. FOG NOT FORECAST TONIGHT DUE TO MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND DRY AIR MASS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 211936
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
336 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...AS A ROBUST AND DEEP-LAYERED GYRE NEAR KPIT THIS EVENING
WILL DROP TOWARD THE DELMARVA LATE AND SEND A MODEST COLD FRONT INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING...BEFORE IT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DRY...WITH AT MOST A FEW
ALTOCUMULUS AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN SC.
OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CRYSTAL CLEAR WITH THE VERTICAL VOID OF ANY
MOISTURE. COLD ADVECTION STARTS IN EARNEST AFTER ABOUT 03-05Z WITHIN
A DEEP NW AND NORTH FLOW...AND WE LOOK FOR A GOOD DROP IN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 47-50 ALONG THE NW TIER...TO THE
LOWER OR MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE US-17 CORRIDOR...TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...MUCH COOLER AND DRYER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
SOME 8-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW 70S...COOLEST
OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE
THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK...WITH PERHAPS SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM
RADIATIONAL COOLING INLAND. IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOW/MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS
TO THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN...BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO
NORTHWEST LATE WEEK. A FULL SUN ALONG WITH A MORE FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT EACH DAY SUPPORTS GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPS...WITH LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUGGESTING OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 70S ON THURSDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S ON
FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY NORTH/NW WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AT KSAV AND KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS WITH VFR WEATHER TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS
EVENING...PASSING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. A DECENT NW
TO NORTH POST-FRONTAL SURGE WILL OCCUR AS COLD ADVECTION MIXES A
GOOD PART OF THE 25 GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS. WE DELIBERATED LONG AND
HARD ON WHETHER OR NOT TO HOIST THE SCA FLAGS...BUT PRESSURE RISES
OF 1-2 MB FROM ABOUT 09-12Z AND ONLY AROUND AN 8-10 DEGREE SPREAD OF
THE COOLER AIR ATOP THE WARMER WATERS SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS WILL
STAY JUST BELOW THE REQUIRED SCA CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
BUILD FROM NEAR 2 FT THIS EVENING TO 3-5 FT LATE TONIGHT...GREATEST
ACROSS AMZ374.

WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AS A RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 15-20 KTS
WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER NORTHERN SC WATERS WHEN COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS STRONGEST WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK AND IS THEN REINFORCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KFFC 211857
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
257 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CWA REMAINS
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EAST COAST AND THIS ALLOWS THE NW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE. WILL SEE
COOLER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS COMPARED TO TODAY WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THAT WILL SERVE TO REINFORCE THE DRY
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS VERY ISOLATED AREAS IN NE GEORGIA TONIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST FOR THESE AREAS. TOO ISOLATED THOUGH
FOR A FROST ADVISORY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL EVEN
MORE FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND EVEN THOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST IS A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THIS STILL RESULTS IN
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA THAT DIP DOWN
INTO THE MID 30S.

11


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING
DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF BRINGS A SHORTWAVE INTO THE TN VALLEY THAT
WOULD BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE TO FAR NORTH GEORGIA. IT
KEEPS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. THE GFS
THOUGH IS MUCH MORE SUBTLE WITH THIS FEATURE AND DOES NOT BRING
ANY IMPACTS INTO THE CWA. AT THIS POINT EITHER WAY...AREA REMAINS
DRY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THOUGH FOR ANY CHANGES WITH THIS
SYSTEM. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS OUTSIDE THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...GENERALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND 12Z
ECMWF RUN IS COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH GFS IN REGARDS TO THIS
SYSTEM.

11

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 248 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH RIDGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. GUIDANCE DEFINITELY TRENDING COOLER WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME MEMBERS INDICATING LOWS AROUND FREEZING FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. WENT WITH A BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND FOR NOW WHICH FOR THE MOST PART DOES KEEP MOST
AREAS ABOVE FREEZING BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. APPEARS WE MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE METRO BUT
LIGHTER WIND TO THE NORTH SHOULD YIELD PATCHY TO PERHAPS EVEN
AREAS OF FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH ONLY THREAT OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THE NEXT
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE JUST OUTSIDE
OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE AND 12Z EURO DID NOT EVEN PICK UP ON THIS
POTENTIAL BUT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 00Z EURO BEFORE MAKING FINAL
DECISION ON POPS. FOR NOW THOUGH...LEANING TOWARD CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
FEW TO SCT040 CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ATL
AND AHN SITES. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET THOUGH.
WINDS ARE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 15-18KTS. THESE
TOO SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN IN THE MORNING AND HAVE MENTIONED IN AHN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          43  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         47  67  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     38  62  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    42  66  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        49  72  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  66  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           45  73  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            41  66  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  41  69  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         53  73  47  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17/11
AVIATION...11






000
FXUS62 KCAE 211802
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
202 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE 75 TO 80 RANGE WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW DESPITE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AROUND 03Z AT CAE. LIMITED MOISTURE SO DRY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...MAINTAINING A
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR REGION...WITH A DRY FRONT OR TROUGH OR
TWO MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

UPPER TROF AXIS EAST OF THE AREA...SKIES CLEAR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY SEE A FEW STRATO-CU CLOUDS
ALONG FRONT. WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK GENERALLY UNDER
10KT. BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING NW WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KT
EXPECTED. FOG NOT FORECAST TONIGHT DUE TO MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND DRY AIR MASS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 211733
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
133 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND CUT OFF. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE
SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...MAINTAINING A
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR REGION...WITH A DRY FRONT OR TROUGH OR
TWO MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH UPPER TROF AXIS EAST OF THE AREA...SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A
COUPLE OF SPOTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPED BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAINDER OF TODAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND EAST THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING WEST- NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK GENERALLY
UNDER 10KT. BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING NW WINDS GENERALLY UNDER
10KT EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 211727 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
127 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 248 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
GUIDANCE IN GOOD CONSENSUS FOR SHORT TERM WITH ANOTHER DRY FROPA
ADVECTING VERY DRY AIR INTO THE CWA. WE STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY PROGGED TO CUTOFF AND LINGER NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. TRANSLATED SFC PRESSURE SYSTEMS WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW OFF THE EAST COAST AND HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND
FROM THE NORTH WILL ENHANCE GRADIENT WINDS FOR OUR AREA OUT OF THE
NW. MAGNITUDES SHOULD STILL STAY UNDER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS HOWEVER. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF AREA /SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NE GA
POSSIBLY UPPER 30S/ AND HIGHS WED GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
NICE AND FALL-LIKE.

BAKER

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 248 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH RIDGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. GUIDANCE DEFINITELY TRENDING COOLER WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME MEMBERS INDICATING LOWS AROUND FREEZING FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. WENT WITH A BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND FOR NOW WHICH FOR THE MOST PART DOES KEEP MOST
AREAS ABOVE FREEZING BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. APPEARS WE MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE METRO BUT
LIGHTER WIND TO THE NORTH SHOULD YIELD PATCHY TO PERHAPS EVEN
AREAS OF FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH ONLY THREAT OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THE NEXT
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE JUST OUTSIDE
OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE AND 12Z EURO DID NOT EVEN PICK UP ON THIS
POTENTIAL BUT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 00Z EURO BEFORE MAKING FINAL
DECISION ON POPS. FOR NOW THOUGH...LEANING TOWARD CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
FEW TO SCT040 CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ATL
AND AHN SITES. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET THOUGH.
WINDS ARE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 15-18KTS. THESE
TOO SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN IN THE MORNING AND HAVE MENTIONED IN AHN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  43  69  40 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         73  47  67  45 /   5   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     66  38  62  35 /  10   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    74  42  66  36 /  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        77  49  72  44 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     70  45  66  43 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           79  45  73  39 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            74  41  66  38 /  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  75  41  69  37 /   5   0   0   0
VIDALIA         80  53  73  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11






000
FXUS62 KCHS 211721
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
121 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND A PROMINENT
CUT OFF AND DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WE/RE
ALSO IN A REGION OF NVA BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE OF LATE LAST NIGHT.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO AND DRY AIR MASS WE/RE IN STORE FOR A GORGEOUS
AUTUMN DAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING TONIGHT. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...DOWNSLOPE WEST/NW TRAJECTORIES DOWN THE APPALACHIANS AND
BRILLIANT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM 850 MB TEMPS OF 12-13C OUR TEMPS
WILL PEAK IN THE LOWER 80S. EVEN THE BEACHES WILL BE CLOSE TO 80
BEFORE A WEAK RESULTANT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS LATE AND SHIFTS WINDS
ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE TO SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE EVENING WITH
MODEST POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND A NARROW DEEP LAYER RIDGE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. OUR REGION
WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A POLAR RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH DRY DUE TO
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE CENTER WILL STILL
BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THUS...NOT
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
THIS PERIOD TO BE THE COOLEST FOR THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S INLAND TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE DAY. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE STARTS TO
FLATTEN/WEAKEN WITH A PRETTY WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS
/NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...MAY SEE A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY
NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REPLACING THE WEAK RIDGE. THIS WILL VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO WESTERLY...AND ALONG WITH SOME MIXING DUE TO THE SHORT
WAVE...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S COAST.

FRIDAY..THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY NORTH/NW WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AT KSAV AND KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...AWESOME BOATING CONDITIONS...WITH GENTLE WEST/NW
BREEZES TO BECOME MORE SW BY LATE AS A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION ATTEMPTS TO BUCKLE THE DOMINANT OFFSHORE SYNOPTIC
FLOW. EVEN SO WINDS WILL REACH NO MORE THAN AROUND 10 KT...AND
SEAS OF 1 OR 2 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH LATE AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. A POST FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS
DECENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE STRONG OFFSHORE FETCH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS STILL TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF WINDS DO REACH SCA
LEVELS...LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE FOR A SHORT DURATION...MOST LIKELY
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH BECOMES REINFORCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 211702
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
102 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND A PROMINENT
CUT OFF AND DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WE/RE
ALSO IN A REGION OF NVA BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE OF LATE LAST NIGHT.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO AND DRY AIR MASS WE/RE IN STORE FOR A GORGEOUS
AUTUMN DAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING TONIGHT. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...DOWNSLOPE WEST/NW TRAJECTORIES DOWN THE APPALACHIANS AND
BRILLIANT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM 850 MB TEMPS OF 12-13C OUR TEMPS
WILL PEAK IN THE LOWER 80S. EVEN THE BEACHES WILL BE CLOSE TO 80
BEFORE A WEAK RESULTANT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS LATE AND SHIFTS WINDS
ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE TO SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE EVENING WITH
MODEST POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND A NARROW DEEP LAYER RIDGE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. OUR REGION
WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A POLAR RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH DRY DUE TO
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE CENTER WILL STILL
BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THUS...NOT
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
THIS PERIOD TO BE THE COOLEST FOR THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S INLAND TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE DAY. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE STARTS TO
FLATTEN/WEAKEN WITH A PRETTY WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS
/NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...MAY SEE A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY
NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REPLACING THE WEAK RIDGE. THIS WILL VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO WESTERLY...AND ALONG WITH SOME MIXING DUE TO THE SHORT
WAVE...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S COAST.

FRIDAY..THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...AWESOME BOATING CONDITIONS...WITH GENTLE WEST/NW
BREEZES TO BECOME MORE SW BY LATE AS A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION ATTEMPTS TO BUCKLE THE DOMINANT OFFSHORE SYNOPTIC
FLOW. EVEN SO WINDS WILL REACH NO MORE THAN AROUND 10 KT...AND
SEAS OF 1 OR 2 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH LATE AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. A POST FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS
DECENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE STRONG OFFSHORE FETCH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS STILL TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF WINDS DO REACH SCA
LEVELS...LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE FOR A SHORT DURATION...MOST LIKELY
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH BECOMES REINFORCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 211407
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1007 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND A PROMINENT
CUT OFF AND DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WE/RE
ALSO IN A REGION OF NVA BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE OF LATE LAST NIGHT.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO AND DRY AIR MASS WE/RE IN STORE FOR A GORGEOUS
AUTUMN DAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING TONIGHT. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...DOWNSLOPE WEST/NW TRAJECTORIES DOWN THE APPALACHIANS AND
BRILLIANT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM 850 MB TEMPS OF 12-13C OUR TEMPS
WILL PEAK IN THE LOWER 80S. EVEN THE BEACHES WILL BE CLOSE TO 80
BEFORE A WEAK RESULTANT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS LATE AND BACKS WINDS
ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE TO SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE EVENING WITH
MODEST POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND A NARROW DEEP LAYER RIDGE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. OUR REGION
WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A POLAR RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH DRY DUE TO
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE CENTER WILL STILL
BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THUS...NOT
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
THIS PERIOD TO BE THE COOLEST FOR THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S INLAND TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE DAY. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE STARTS TO
FLATTEN/WEAKEN WITH A PRETTY WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS
/NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...MAY SEE A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY
NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REPLACING THE WEAK RIDGE. THIS WILL VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO WESTERLY...AND ALONG WITH SOME MIXING DUE TO THE SHORT
WAVE...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S COAST.

FRIDAY..THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AWESOME BOATING CONDITIONS...WITH GENTLE WEST/NW BREEZES
TO BACK A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION ATTEMPTS TO BUCKLE THE DOMINANT OFFSHORE SYNOPTIC
FLOW. EVEN SO WINDS WILL REACH NO MORE THAN AROUND 10 KT...AND
SEAS OF 1 OR 2 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH LATE AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. A POST FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS
DECENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE STRONG OFFSHORE FETCH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS STILL TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF WINDS DO REACH SCA
LEVELS...LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE FOR A SHORT DURATION...MOST LIKELY
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH BECOMES REINFORCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 211407
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1007 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND A PROMINENT
CUT OFF AND DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WE/RE
ALSO IN A REGION OF NVA BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE OF LATE LAST NIGHT.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO AND DRY AIR MASS WE/RE IN STORE FOR A GORGEOUS
AUTUMN DAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING TONIGHT. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...DOWNSLOPE WEST/NW TRAJECTORIES DOWN THE APPALACHIANS AND
BRILLIANT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM 850 MB TEMPS OF 12-13C OUR TEMPS
WILL PEAK IN THE LOWER 80S. EVEN THE BEACHES WILL BE CLOSE TO 80
BEFORE A WEAK RESULTANT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS LATE AND BACKS WINDS
ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE TO SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE EVENING WITH
MODEST POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND A NARROW DEEP LAYER RIDGE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. OUR REGION
WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A POLAR RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH DRY DUE TO
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE CENTER WILL STILL
BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THUS...NOT
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
THIS PERIOD TO BE THE COOLEST FOR THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S INLAND TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE DAY. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE STARTS TO
FLATTEN/WEAKEN WITH A PRETTY WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS
/NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...MAY SEE A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY
NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REPLACING THE WEAK RIDGE. THIS WILL VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO WESTERLY...AND ALONG WITH SOME MIXING DUE TO THE SHORT
WAVE...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S COAST.

FRIDAY..THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AWESOME BOATING CONDITIONS...WITH GENTLE WEST/NW BREEZES
TO BACK A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION ATTEMPTS TO BUCKLE THE DOMINANT OFFSHORE SYNOPTIC
FLOW. EVEN SO WINDS WILL REACH NO MORE THAN AROUND 10 KT...AND
SEAS OF 1 OR 2 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH LATE AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. A POST FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS
DECENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE STRONG OFFSHORE FETCH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS STILL TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF WINDS DO REACH SCA
LEVELS...LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE FOR A SHORT DURATION...MOST LIKELY
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH BECOMES REINFORCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 211407
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1007 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND A PROMINENT
CUT OFF AND DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WE/RE
ALSO IN A REGION OF NVA BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE OF LATE LAST NIGHT.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO AND DRY AIR MASS WE/RE IN STORE FOR A GORGEOUS
AUTUMN DAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING TONIGHT. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...DOWNSLOPE WEST/NW TRAJECTORIES DOWN THE APPALACHIANS AND
BRILLIANT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM 850 MB TEMPS OF 12-13C OUR TEMPS
WILL PEAK IN THE LOWER 80S. EVEN THE BEACHES WILL BE CLOSE TO 80
BEFORE A WEAK RESULTANT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS LATE AND BACKS WINDS
ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE TO SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE EVENING WITH
MODEST POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND A NARROW DEEP LAYER RIDGE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. OUR REGION
WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A POLAR RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH DRY DUE TO
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE CENTER WILL STILL
BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THUS...NOT
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
THIS PERIOD TO BE THE COOLEST FOR THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S INLAND TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE DAY. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE STARTS TO
FLATTEN/WEAKEN WITH A PRETTY WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS
/NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...MAY SEE A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY
NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REPLACING THE WEAK RIDGE. THIS WILL VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO WESTERLY...AND ALONG WITH SOME MIXING DUE TO THE SHORT
WAVE...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S COAST.

FRIDAY..THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AWESOME BOATING CONDITIONS...WITH GENTLE WEST/NW BREEZES
TO BACK A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION ATTEMPTS TO BUCKLE THE DOMINANT OFFSHORE SYNOPTIC
FLOW. EVEN SO WINDS WILL REACH NO MORE THAN AROUND 10 KT...AND
SEAS OF 1 OR 2 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH LATE AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. A POST FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS
DECENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE STRONG OFFSHORE FETCH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS STILL TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF WINDS DO REACH SCA
LEVELS...LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE FOR A SHORT DURATION...MOST LIKELY
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH BECOMES REINFORCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 211407
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1007 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND A PROMINENT
CUT OFF AND DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WE/RE
ALSO IN A REGION OF NVA BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE OF LATE LAST NIGHT.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO AND DRY AIR MASS WE/RE IN STORE FOR A GORGEOUS
AUTUMN DAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING TONIGHT. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...DOWNSLOPE WEST/NW TRAJECTORIES DOWN THE APPALACHIANS AND
BRILLIANT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM 850 MB TEMPS OF 12-13C OUR TEMPS
WILL PEAK IN THE LOWER 80S. EVEN THE BEACHES WILL BE CLOSE TO 80
BEFORE A WEAK RESULTANT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS LATE AND BACKS WINDS
ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE TO SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE EVENING WITH
MODEST POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND A NARROW DEEP LAYER RIDGE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. OUR REGION
WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A POLAR RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH DRY DUE TO
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE CENTER WILL STILL
BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THUS...NOT
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
THIS PERIOD TO BE THE COOLEST FOR THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S INLAND TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE DAY. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE STARTS TO
FLATTEN/WEAKEN WITH A PRETTY WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS
/NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...MAY SEE A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY
NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REPLACING THE WEAK RIDGE. THIS WILL VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO WESTERLY...AND ALONG WITH SOME MIXING DUE TO THE SHORT
WAVE...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S COAST.

FRIDAY..THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AWESOME BOATING CONDITIONS...WITH GENTLE WEST/NW BREEZES
TO BACK A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION ATTEMPTS TO BUCKLE THE DOMINANT OFFSHORE SYNOPTIC
FLOW. EVEN SO WINDS WILL REACH NO MORE THAN AROUND 10 KT...AND
SEAS OF 1 OR 2 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH LATE AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. A POST FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS
DECENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE STRONG OFFSHORE FETCH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS STILL TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF WINDS DO REACH SCA
LEVELS...LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE FOR A SHORT DURATION...MOST LIKELY
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH BECOMES REINFORCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KFFC 211134
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
734 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD CONSENSUS FOR SHORT TERM WITH ANOTHER DRY FROPA
ADVECTING VERY DRY AIR INTO THE CWA. WE STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY PROGGED TO CUTOFF AND LINGER NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. TRANSLATED SFC PRESSURE SYSTEMS WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW OFF THE EAST COAST AND HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND
FROM THE NORTH WILL ENHANCE GRADIENT WINDS FOR OUR AREA OUT OF THE
NW. MAGNITUDES SHOULD STILL STAY UNDER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS HOWEVER. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF AREA /SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NE GA
POSSIBLY UPPER 30S/ AND HIGHS WED GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
NICE AND FALL-LIKE.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH RIDGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. GUIDANCE DEFINITELY TRENDING COOLER WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME MEMBERS INDICATING LOWS AROUND FREEZING FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. WENT WITH A BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND FOR NOW WHICH FOR THE MOST PART DOES KEEP MOST
AREAS ABOVE FREEZING BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. APPEARS WE MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE METRO BUT
LIGHTER WIND TO THE NORTH SHOULD YIELD PATCHY TO PERHAPS EVEN
AREAS OF FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH ONLY THREAT OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THE NEXT
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE JUST OUTSIDE
OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE AND 12Z EURO DID NOT EVEN PICK UP ON THIS
POTENTIAL BUT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 00Z EURO BEFORE MAKING FINAL
DECISION ON POPS. FOR NOW THOUGH...LEANING TOWARD CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU PERIOD WITH SOME SPOTTY MVFR VSBYS
THIS MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME FEW CU FIELD POSSIBLE
TODAY. ANOTHER DRY FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD SHOULD INCREASE
GRADIENT WINDS OUT OF NW THROUGH TODAY INCREASING TO 8-10 KTS
GUSTING 14-18 KTS AFTER 15-17Z...THEN DECREASING TO 4-7 KTS AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON INITIAL MVFR VSBY POTENTIAL.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  44  69  40 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         73  48  68  46 /   5   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     66  38  62  33 /  10   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    74  41  67  35 /  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        77  49  72  44 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     70  45  65  43 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           79  45  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            75  42  68  39 /  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  75  42  69  38 /   5   0   0   0
VIDALIA         80  52  72  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...DEESE
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS62 KFFC 211134
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
734 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD CONSENSUS FOR SHORT TERM WITH ANOTHER DRY FROPA
ADVECTING VERY DRY AIR INTO THE CWA. WE STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY PROGGED TO CUTOFF AND LINGER NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. TRANSLATED SFC PRESSURE SYSTEMS WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW OFF THE EAST COAST AND HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND
FROM THE NORTH WILL ENHANCE GRADIENT WINDS FOR OUR AREA OUT OF THE
NW. MAGNITUDES SHOULD STILL STAY UNDER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS HOWEVER. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF AREA /SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NE GA
POSSIBLY UPPER 30S/ AND HIGHS WED GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
NICE AND FALL-LIKE.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH RIDGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. GUIDANCE DEFINITELY TRENDING COOLER WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME MEMBERS INDICATING LOWS AROUND FREEZING FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. WENT WITH A BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND FOR NOW WHICH FOR THE MOST PART DOES KEEP MOST
AREAS ABOVE FREEZING BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. APPEARS WE MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE METRO BUT
LIGHTER WIND TO THE NORTH SHOULD YIELD PATCHY TO PERHAPS EVEN
AREAS OF FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH ONLY THREAT OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THE NEXT
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE JUST OUTSIDE
OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE AND 12Z EURO DID NOT EVEN PICK UP ON THIS
POTENTIAL BUT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 00Z EURO BEFORE MAKING FINAL
DECISION ON POPS. FOR NOW THOUGH...LEANING TOWARD CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU PERIOD WITH SOME SPOTTY MVFR VSBYS
THIS MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME FEW CU FIELD POSSIBLE
TODAY. ANOTHER DRY FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD SHOULD INCREASE
GRADIENT WINDS OUT OF NW THROUGH TODAY INCREASING TO 8-10 KTS
GUSTING 14-18 KTS AFTER 15-17Z...THEN DECREASING TO 4-7 KTS AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON INITIAL MVFR VSBY POTENTIAL.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  44  69  40 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         73  48  68  46 /   5   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     66  38  62  33 /  10   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    74  41  67  35 /  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        77  49  72  44 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     70  45  65  43 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           79  45  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            75  42  68  39 /  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  75  42  69  38 /   5   0   0   0
VIDALIA         80  52  72  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...DEESE
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS62 KCAE 211048
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND CUT OFF. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE
SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...MAINTAINING A
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR REGION...WITH A DRY FRONT OR TROUGH OR
TWO MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH UPPER TROF AXIS EAST OF THE AREA...SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A
COUPLE OF SPOTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPED BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAINDER OF TODAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND EAST THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING WEST- NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK GENERALLY
UNDER 10KT. BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING NW WINDS GENERALLY UNDER
10KT EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 211048
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND CUT OFF. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE
SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...MAINTAINING A
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR REGION...WITH A DRY FRONT OR TROUGH OR
TWO MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH UPPER TROF AXIS EAST OF THE AREA...SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A
COUPLE OF SPOTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPED BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAINDER OF TODAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND EAST THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING WEST- NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK GENERALLY
UNDER 10KT. BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING NW WINDS GENERALLY UNDER
10KT EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 211048
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND CUT OFF. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE
SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...MAINTAINING A
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR REGION...WITH A DRY FRONT OR TROUGH OR
TWO MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH UPPER TROF AXIS EAST OF THE AREA...SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A
COUPLE OF SPOTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPED BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAINDER OF TODAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND EAST THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING WEST- NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK GENERALLY
UNDER 10KT. BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING NW WINDS GENERALLY UNDER
10KT EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 211048
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND CUT OFF. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE
SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...MAINTAINING A
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR REGION...WITH A DRY FRONT OR TROUGH OR
TWO MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH UPPER TROF AXIS EAST OF THE AREA...SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A
COUPLE OF SPOTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPED BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAINDER OF TODAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND EAST THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING WEST- NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK GENERALLY
UNDER 10KT. BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING NW WINDS GENERALLY UNDER
10KT EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 211048
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND CUT OFF. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE
SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...MAINTAINING A
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR REGION...WITH A DRY FRONT OR TROUGH OR
TWO MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH UPPER TROF AXIS EAST OF THE AREA...SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A
COUPLE OF SPOTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPED BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAINDER OF TODAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND EAST THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING WEST- NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK GENERALLY
UNDER 10KT. BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING NW WINDS GENERALLY UNDER
10KT EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 211048
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND CUT OFF. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE
SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...MAINTAINING A
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR REGION...WITH A DRY FRONT OR TROUGH OR
TWO MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH UPPER TROF AXIS EAST OF THE AREA...SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A
COUPLE OF SPOTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPED BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAINDER OF TODAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND EAST THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING WEST- NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK GENERALLY
UNDER 10KT. BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING NW WINDS GENERALLY UNDER
10KT EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 211044
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
644 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR AREAS THAT SAW RAIN OVERNIGHT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE
NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH SUNRISE APPROACHING...BUT
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH
CAROLINA... SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
RAPIDLY DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS THE TAIL END OF ITS
SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE PIVOTS OFF TO THE NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOLID WESTERLY FLOW NECESSITATES GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE TO
FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN GUIDANCE TENDS TO RUN A BIT TOO COOL IN
WESTERLY FLOW REGIMES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
80S...EVEN ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE
PINNED NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE EVENING WITH
MODEST POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND A NARROW DEEP LAYER RIDGE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. OUR REGION
WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A POLAR RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH DRY DUE TO
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE CENTER WILL STILL
BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THUS...NOT
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
THIS PERIOD TO BE THE COOLEST FOR THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S INLAND TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE DAY. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE STARTS TO
FLATTEN/WEAKEN WITH A PRETTY WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS
/NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...MAY SEE A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY
NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REPLACING THE WEAK RIDGE. THIS WILL VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO WESTERLY...AND ALONG WITH SOME MIXING DUE TO THE SHORT
WAVE...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S COAST.

FRIDAY..THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE AROUND SUNRISE AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS WITHS SEAS 1-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH LATE AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. A POST FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS
DECENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE STRONG OFFSHORE FETCH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS STILL TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF WINDS DO REACH SCA
LEVELS...LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE FOR A SHORT DURATION...MOST LIKELY
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH BECOMES REINFORCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 211044
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
644 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR AREAS THAT SAW RAIN OVERNIGHT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE
NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH SUNRISE APPROACHING...BUT
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH
CAROLINA... SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
RAPIDLY DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS THE TAIL END OF ITS
SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE PIVOTS OFF TO THE NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOLID WESTERLY FLOW NECESSITATES GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE TO
FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN GUIDANCE TENDS TO RUN A BIT TOO COOL IN
WESTERLY FLOW REGIMES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
80S...EVEN ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE
PINNED NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE EVENING WITH
MODEST POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND A NARROW DEEP LAYER RIDGE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. OUR REGION
WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A POLAR RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH DRY DUE TO
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE CENTER WILL STILL
BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THUS...NOT
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
THIS PERIOD TO BE THE COOLEST FOR THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S INLAND TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE DAY. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE STARTS TO
FLATTEN/WEAKEN WITH A PRETTY WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS
/NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...MAY SEE A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY
NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REPLACING THE WEAK RIDGE. THIS WILL VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO WESTERLY...AND ALONG WITH SOME MIXING DUE TO THE SHORT
WAVE...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S COAST.

FRIDAY..THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE AROUND SUNRISE AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS WITHS SEAS 1-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH LATE AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. A POST FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS
DECENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE STRONG OFFSHORE FETCH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS STILL TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF WINDS DO REACH SCA
LEVELS...LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE FOR A SHORT DURATION...MOST LIKELY
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH BECOMES REINFORCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 211044
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
644 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR AREAS THAT SAW RAIN OVERNIGHT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE
NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH SUNRISE APPROACHING...BUT
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH
CAROLINA... SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
RAPIDLY DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS THE TAIL END OF ITS
SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE PIVOTS OFF TO THE NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOLID WESTERLY FLOW NECESSITATES GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE TO
FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN GUIDANCE TENDS TO RUN A BIT TOO COOL IN
WESTERLY FLOW REGIMES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
80S...EVEN ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE
PINNED NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE EVENING WITH
MODEST POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND A NARROW DEEP LAYER RIDGE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. OUR REGION
WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A POLAR RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH DRY DUE TO
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE CENTER WILL STILL
BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THUS...NOT
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
THIS PERIOD TO BE THE COOLEST FOR THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S INLAND TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE DAY. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE STARTS TO
FLATTEN/WEAKEN WITH A PRETTY WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS
/NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...MAY SEE A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY
NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REPLACING THE WEAK RIDGE. THIS WILL VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO WESTERLY...AND ALONG WITH SOME MIXING DUE TO THE SHORT
WAVE...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S COAST.

FRIDAY..THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE AROUND SUNRISE AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS WITHS SEAS 1-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH LATE AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. A POST FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS
DECENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE STRONG OFFSHORE FETCH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS STILL TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF WINDS DO REACH SCA
LEVELS...LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE FOR A SHORT DURATION...MOST LIKELY
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH BECOMES REINFORCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 211044
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
644 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR AREAS THAT SAW RAIN OVERNIGHT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE
NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH SUNRISE APPROACHING...BUT
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH
CAROLINA... SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
RAPIDLY DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS THE TAIL END OF ITS
SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE PIVOTS OFF TO THE NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOLID WESTERLY FLOW NECESSITATES GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE TO
FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN GUIDANCE TENDS TO RUN A BIT TOO COOL IN
WESTERLY FLOW REGIMES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
80S...EVEN ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE
PINNED NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE EVENING WITH
MODEST POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND A NARROW DEEP LAYER RIDGE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. OUR REGION
WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A POLAR RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH DRY DUE TO
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE CENTER WILL STILL
BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THUS...NOT
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
THIS PERIOD TO BE THE COOLEST FOR THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S INLAND TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE DAY. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE STARTS TO
FLATTEN/WEAKEN WITH A PRETTY WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS
/NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...MAY SEE A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY
NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REPLACING THE WEAK RIDGE. THIS WILL VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO WESTERLY...AND ALONG WITH SOME MIXING DUE TO THE SHORT
WAVE...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S COAST.

FRIDAY..THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE AROUND SUNRISE AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS WITHS SEAS 1-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH LATE AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. A POST FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS
DECENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE STRONG OFFSHORE FETCH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS STILL TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF WINDS DO REACH SCA
LEVELS...LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE FOR A SHORT DURATION...MOST LIKELY
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH BECOMES REINFORCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 211044
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
644 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR AREAS THAT SAW RAIN OVERNIGHT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE
NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH SUNRISE APPROACHING...BUT
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH
CAROLINA... SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
RAPIDLY DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS THE TAIL END OF ITS
SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE PIVOTS OFF TO THE NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOLID WESTERLY FLOW NECESSITATES GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE TO
FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN GUIDANCE TENDS TO RUN A BIT TOO COOL IN
WESTERLY FLOW REGIMES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
80S...EVEN ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE
PINNED NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE EVENING WITH
MODEST POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND A NARROW DEEP LAYER RIDGE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. OUR REGION
WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A POLAR RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH DRY DUE TO
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE CENTER WILL STILL
BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THUS...NOT
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
THIS PERIOD TO BE THE COOLEST FOR THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S INLAND TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE DAY. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE STARTS TO
FLATTEN/WEAKEN WITH A PRETTY WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS
/NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...MAY SEE A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY
NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REPLACING THE WEAK RIDGE. THIS WILL VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO WESTERLY...AND ALONG WITH SOME MIXING DUE TO THE SHORT
WAVE...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S COAST.

FRIDAY..THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE AROUND SUNRISE AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS WITHS SEAS 1-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH LATE AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. A POST FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS
DECENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE STRONG OFFSHORE FETCH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS STILL TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF WINDS DO REACH SCA
LEVELS...LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE FOR A SHORT DURATION...MOST LIKELY
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH BECOMES REINFORCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 211044
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
644 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR AREAS THAT SAW RAIN OVERNIGHT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE
NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH SUNRISE APPROACHING...BUT
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH
CAROLINA... SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
RAPIDLY DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS THE TAIL END OF ITS
SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE PIVOTS OFF TO THE NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOLID WESTERLY FLOW NECESSITATES GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE TO
FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN GUIDANCE TENDS TO RUN A BIT TOO COOL IN
WESTERLY FLOW REGIMES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
80S...EVEN ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE
PINNED NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE EVENING WITH
MODEST POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND A NARROW DEEP LAYER RIDGE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. OUR REGION
WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A POLAR RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH DRY DUE TO
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE CENTER WILL STILL
BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THUS...NOT
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
THIS PERIOD TO BE THE COOLEST FOR THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S INLAND TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE DAY. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE STARTS TO
FLATTEN/WEAKEN WITH A PRETTY WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS
/NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...MAY SEE A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY
NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REPLACING THE WEAK RIDGE. THIS WILL VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO WESTERLY...AND ALONG WITH SOME MIXING DUE TO THE SHORT
WAVE...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S COAST.

FRIDAY..THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE AROUND SUNRISE AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS WITHS SEAS 1-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH LATE AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. A POST FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS
DECENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE STRONG OFFSHORE FETCH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS STILL TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF WINDS DO REACH SCA
LEVELS...LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE FOR A SHORT DURATION...MOST LIKELY
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH BECOMES REINFORCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCAE 211038
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
638 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL
EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE SE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CUT OFF. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...MAINTAINING A
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR REGION...WITH A DRY FRONT OR TROUGH OR
TWO MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH UPPER TROF AXIS EAST OF THE AREA...SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A
COUPLE OF SPOTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPED BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAINDER OF TODAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND EAST THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING WEST- NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK GENERALLY
UNDER 10KT. BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING NW WINDS GENERALLY UNDER
10KT EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 211038
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
638 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL
EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE SE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CUT OFF. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...MAINTAINING A
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR REGION...WITH A DRY FRONT OR TROUGH OR
TWO MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH UPPER TROF AXIS EAST OF THE AREA...SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A
COUPLE OF SPOTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPED BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAINDER OF TODAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND EAST THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING WEST- NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK GENERALLY
UNDER 10KT. BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING NW WINDS GENERALLY UNDER
10KT EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 211038
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
638 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL
EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE SE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CUT OFF. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...MAINTAINING A
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR REGION...WITH A DRY FRONT OR TROUGH OR
TWO MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH UPPER TROF AXIS EAST OF THE AREA...SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A
COUPLE OF SPOTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPED BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAINDER OF TODAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND EAST THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING WEST- NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK GENERALLY
UNDER 10KT. BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING NW WINDS GENERALLY UNDER
10KT EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 211038
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
638 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL
EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE SE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CUT OFF. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...MAINTAINING A
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR REGION...WITH A DRY FRONT OR TROUGH OR
TWO MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH UPPER TROF AXIS EAST OF THE AREA...SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A
COUPLE OF SPOTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPED BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAINDER OF TODAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND EAST THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING WEST- NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK GENERALLY
UNDER 10KT. BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING NW WINDS GENERALLY UNDER
10KT EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 211038
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
638 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL
EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE SE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CUT OFF. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...MAINTAINING A
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR REGION...WITH A DRY FRONT OR TROUGH OR
TWO MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH UPPER TROF AXIS EAST OF THE AREA...SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A
COUPLE OF SPOTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPED BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAINDER OF TODAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND EAST THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING WEST- NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK GENERALLY
UNDER 10KT. BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING NW WINDS GENERALLY UNDER
10KT EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 211038
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
638 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL
EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE SE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CUT OFF. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...MAINTAINING A
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR REGION...WITH A DRY FRONT OR TROUGH OR
TWO MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH UPPER TROF AXIS EAST OF THE AREA...SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A
COUPLE OF SPOTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPED BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAINDER OF TODAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND EAST THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING WEST- NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK GENERALLY
UNDER 10KT. BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING NW WINDS GENERALLY UNDER
10KT EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 211038
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
638 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL
EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE SE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CUT OFF. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...MAINTAINING A
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR REGION...WITH A DRY FRONT OR TROUGH OR
TWO MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH UPPER TROF AXIS EAST OF THE AREA...SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A
COUPLE OF SPOTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPED BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAINDER OF TODAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND EAST THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING WEST- NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK GENERALLY
UNDER 10KT. BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING NW WINDS GENERALLY UNDER
10KT EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 211038
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
638 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL
EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE SE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CUT OFF. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...MAINTAINING A
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR REGION...WITH A DRY FRONT OR TROUGH OR
TWO MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH UPPER TROF AXIS EAST OF THE AREA...SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A
COUPLE OF SPOTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPED BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAINDER OF TODAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND EAST THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING WEST- NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK GENERALLY
UNDER 10KT. BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING NW WINDS GENERALLY UNDER
10KT EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 210808
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
408 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH
CAROLINA... SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
RAPIDLY DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS THE TAIL END OF ITS
SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE PIVOTS OFF TO THE NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOLID WESTERLY FLOW NECESSITATES GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE TO
FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN GUIDANCE TENDS TO RUN A BIT TOO COOL IN
WESTERLY FLOW REGIMES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
80S...EVEN ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE
PINNED NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE EVENING WITH
MODEST POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND A NARROW DEEP LAYER RIDGE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. OUR REGION
WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A POLAR RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH DRY DUE TO
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE CENTER WILL STILL
BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THUS...NOT
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
THIS PERIOD TO BE THE COOLEST FOR THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S INLAND TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE DAY. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE STARTS TO
FLATTEN/WEAKEN WITH A PRETTY WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS
/NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...MAY SEE A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY
NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REPLACING THE WEAK RIDGE. THIS WILL VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO WESTERLY...AND ALONG WITH SOME MIXING DUE TO THE SHORT
WAVE...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S COAST.

FRIDAY..THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY AT KSAV THROUGH ABOUT 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE AROUND SUNRISE AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS WITHS SEAS 1-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH LATE AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. A POST FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS
DECENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE STRONG OFFSHORE FETCH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS STILL TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF WINDS DO REACH SCA
LEVELS...LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE FOR A SHORT DURATION...MOST LIKELY
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH BECOMES REINFORCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/RFM




000
FXUS62 KCHS 210808
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
408 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH
CAROLINA... SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
RAPIDLY DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS THE TAIL END OF ITS
SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE PIVOTS OFF TO THE NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOLID WESTERLY FLOW NECESSITATES GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE TO
FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN GUIDANCE TENDS TO RUN A BIT TOO COOL IN
WESTERLY FLOW REGIMES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
80S...EVEN ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE
PINNED NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE EVENING WITH
MODEST POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND A NARROW DEEP LAYER RIDGE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. OUR REGION
WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A POLAR RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH DRY DUE TO
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE CENTER WILL STILL
BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THUS...NOT
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
THIS PERIOD TO BE THE COOLEST FOR THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S INLAND TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE DAY. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE STARTS TO
FLATTEN/WEAKEN WITH A PRETTY WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS
/NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...MAY SEE A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY
NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REPLACING THE WEAK RIDGE. THIS WILL VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO WESTERLY...AND ALONG WITH SOME MIXING DUE TO THE SHORT
WAVE...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S COAST.

FRIDAY..THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY AT KSAV THROUGH ABOUT 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE AROUND SUNRISE AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS WITHS SEAS 1-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH LATE AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. A POST FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS
DECENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE STRONG OFFSHORE FETCH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS STILL TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF WINDS DO REACH SCA
LEVELS...LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE FOR A SHORT DURATION...MOST LIKELY
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH BECOMES REINFORCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/RFM




000
FXUS62 KCHS 210808
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
408 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH
CAROLINA... SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
RAPIDLY DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS THE TAIL END OF ITS
SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE PIVOTS OFF TO THE NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOLID WESTERLY FLOW NECESSITATES GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE TO
FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN GUIDANCE TENDS TO RUN A BIT TOO COOL IN
WESTERLY FLOW REGIMES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
80S...EVEN ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE
PINNED NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE EVENING WITH
MODEST POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND A NARROW DEEP LAYER RIDGE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. OUR REGION
WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A POLAR RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH DRY DUE TO
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE CENTER WILL STILL
BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THUS...NOT
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
THIS PERIOD TO BE THE COOLEST FOR THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S INLAND TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE DAY. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE STARTS TO
FLATTEN/WEAKEN WITH A PRETTY WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS
/NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...MAY SEE A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY
NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REPLACING THE WEAK RIDGE. THIS WILL VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO WESTERLY...AND ALONG WITH SOME MIXING DUE TO THE SHORT
WAVE...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S COAST.

FRIDAY..THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY AT KSAV THROUGH ABOUT 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE AROUND SUNRISE AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS WITHS SEAS 1-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH LATE AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. A POST FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS
DECENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE STRONG OFFSHORE FETCH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS STILL TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF WINDS DO REACH SCA
LEVELS...LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE FOR A SHORT DURATION...MOST LIKELY
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH BECOMES REINFORCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/RFM




000
FXUS62 KCHS 210808
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
408 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH
CAROLINA... SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
RAPIDLY DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS THE TAIL END OF ITS
SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE PIVOTS OFF TO THE NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOLID WESTERLY FLOW NECESSITATES GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE TO
FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN GUIDANCE TENDS TO RUN A BIT TOO COOL IN
WESTERLY FLOW REGIMES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
80S...EVEN ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE
PINNED NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE EVENING WITH
MODEST POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND A NARROW DEEP LAYER RIDGE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. OUR REGION
WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A POLAR RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH DRY DUE TO
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE CENTER WILL STILL
BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THUS...NOT
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
THIS PERIOD TO BE THE COOLEST FOR THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S INLAND TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE DAY. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE STARTS TO
FLATTEN/WEAKEN WITH A PRETTY WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS
/NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...MAY SEE A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY
NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REPLACING THE WEAK RIDGE. THIS WILL VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO WESTERLY...AND ALONG WITH SOME MIXING DUE TO THE SHORT
WAVE...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S COAST.

FRIDAY..THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY AT KSAV THROUGH ABOUT 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE AROUND SUNRISE AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS WITHS SEAS 1-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH LATE AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. A POST FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS
DECENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE STRONG OFFSHORE FETCH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS STILL TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF WINDS DO REACH SCA
LEVELS...LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE FOR A SHORT DURATION...MOST LIKELY
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH BECOMES REINFORCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/RFM




000
FXUS62 KFFC 210648
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
248 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD CONSENSUS FOR SHORT TERM WITH ANOTHER DRY FROPA
ADVECTING VERY DRY AIR INTO THE CWA. WE STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY PROGGED TO CUTOFF AND LINGER NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. TRANSLATED SFC PRESSURE SYSTEMS WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW OFF THE EAST COAST AND HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND
FROM THE NORTH WILL ENHANCE GRADIENT WINDS FOR OUR AREA OUT OF THE
NW. MAGNITUDES SHOULD STILL STAY UNDER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS HOWEVER. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF AREA /SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NE GA
POSSIBLY UPPER 30S/ AND HIGHS WED GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
NICE AND FALL-LIKE.

BAKER

&&


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH RIDGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. GUIDANCE DEFINITELY TRENDING COOLER WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME MEMBERS INDICATING LOWS AROUND FREEZING FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. WENT WITH A BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND FOR NOW WHICH FOR THE MOST PART DOES KEEP MOST
AREAS ABOVE FREEZING BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. APPEARS WE MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE METRO BUT
LIGHTER WIND TO THE NORTH SHOULD YIELD PATCHY TO PERHAPS EVEN
AREAS OF FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH ONLY THREAT OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THE NEXT
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE JUST OUTSIDE
OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE AND 12Z EURO DID NOT EVEN PICK UP ON THIS
POTENTIAL BUT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 00Z EURO BEFORE MAKING FINAL
DECISION ON POPS. FOR NOW THOUGH...LEANING TOWARD CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.


DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS THIS
MORNING MAINLY FOR KMCN AND POSSIBLY KCSG. SOME LINGERING CIRRUS
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ANOTHER DRY FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD SHOULD INCREASE GRADIENT WINDS OUT OF NW THROUGH
TODAY INCREASING TO 8-10 KTS GUSTING 14-18 KTS AFTER 15-17Z...THEN
DECREASING TO 4-7 KTS AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  44  69  40 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         73  48  68  46 /   5   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     66  38  62  33 /  10   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    74  41  67  35 /  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        77  49  72  44 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     70  45  65  43 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           79  45  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            75  42  68  39 /  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  75  42  69  38 /   5   0   0   0
VIDALIA         80  52  72  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS62 KFFC 210648
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
248 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD CONSENSUS FOR SHORT TERM WITH ANOTHER DRY FROPA
ADVECTING VERY DRY AIR INTO THE CWA. WE STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY PROGGED TO CUTOFF AND LINGER NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. TRANSLATED SFC PRESSURE SYSTEMS WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW OFF THE EAST COAST AND HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND
FROM THE NORTH WILL ENHANCE GRADIENT WINDS FOR OUR AREA OUT OF THE
NW. MAGNITUDES SHOULD STILL STAY UNDER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS HOWEVER. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF AREA /SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NE GA
POSSIBLY UPPER 30S/ AND HIGHS WED GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
NICE AND FALL-LIKE.

BAKER

&&


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH RIDGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. GUIDANCE DEFINITELY TRENDING COOLER WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME MEMBERS INDICATING LOWS AROUND FREEZING FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. WENT WITH A BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND FOR NOW WHICH FOR THE MOST PART DOES KEEP MOST
AREAS ABOVE FREEZING BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. APPEARS WE MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE METRO BUT
LIGHTER WIND TO THE NORTH SHOULD YIELD PATCHY TO PERHAPS EVEN
AREAS OF FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH ONLY THREAT OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THE NEXT
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE JUST OUTSIDE
OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE AND 12Z EURO DID NOT EVEN PICK UP ON THIS
POTENTIAL BUT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 00Z EURO BEFORE MAKING FINAL
DECISION ON POPS. FOR NOW THOUGH...LEANING TOWARD CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.


DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS THIS
MORNING MAINLY FOR KMCN AND POSSIBLY KCSG. SOME LINGERING CIRRUS
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ANOTHER DRY FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD SHOULD INCREASE GRADIENT WINDS OUT OF NW THROUGH
TODAY INCREASING TO 8-10 KTS GUSTING 14-18 KTS AFTER 15-17Z...THEN
DECREASING TO 4-7 KTS AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  44  69  40 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         73  48  68  46 /   5   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     66  38  62  33 /  10   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    74  41  67  35 /  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        77  49  72  44 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     70  45  65  43 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           79  45  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            75  42  68  39 /  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  75  42  69  38 /   5   0   0   0
VIDALIA         80  52  72  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KCAE 210557
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
157 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL
EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE SE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CUT OFF. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...MAINTAINING A
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR REGION...WITH A DRY FRONT OR TROUGH OR
TWO MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES EAST. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
BY SUNRISE. STILL SOME CHANCE OF FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS PRE-DAWN
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP AN MVFR TEMPO GROUP AND WATCH TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PUSHES EAST BY
TUESDAY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST
AFTER DAYBREAK GENERALLY UNDER 10KT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 210557
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
157 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL
EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE SE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CUT OFF. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...MAINTAINING A
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR REGION...WITH A DRY FRONT OR TROUGH OR
TWO MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES EAST. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
BY SUNRISE. STILL SOME CHANCE OF FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS PRE-DAWN
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP AN MVFR TEMPO GROUP AND WATCH TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PUSHES EAST BY
TUESDAY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST
AFTER DAYBREAK GENERALLY UNDER 10KT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 210557
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
157 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL
EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE SE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CUT OFF. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...MAINTAINING A
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR REGION...WITH A DRY FRONT OR TROUGH OR
TWO MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES EAST. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
BY SUNRISE. STILL SOME CHANCE OF FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS PRE-DAWN
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP AN MVFR TEMPO GROUP AND WATCH TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PUSHES EAST BY
TUESDAY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST
AFTER DAYBREAK GENERALLY UNDER 10KT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 210557
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
157 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL
EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE SE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CUT OFF. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...MAINTAINING A
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR REGION...WITH A DRY FRONT OR TROUGH OR
TWO MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES EAST. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
BY SUNRISE. STILL SOME CHANCE OF FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS PRE-DAWN
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP AN MVFR TEMPO GROUP AND WATCH TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PUSHES EAST BY
TUESDAY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST
AFTER DAYBREAK GENERALLY UNDER 10KT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 210549
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
149 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

EVENING UPDATE...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS SPREADING SOME MID CLOUDS OVER NORTH GA
THIS EVENING... WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE... BUT NOTHING IS
EXPECTED TO MEASURE. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TO FAR
NORTH GA TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OUT AS THEY
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE NW. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH GA AROUND 4-6 AM
TUE MORNING... THEN SWEEP ACROSS ATLANTA METRO BETWEEN 8-10 AM
TUE... THEN ACROSS COLUMBUS AND MACON BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM TUE.
SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE... CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK IF CLOUDS THIN AS
EXPECTED. /39

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/
COOL TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM. A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S TO NEAR 50. EXPECTING A BIT COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS DRY COLD FRONT ILL JUST USHER IN A LITTLE BIT
COOLER AIRMASS TO HELP REINFORCE WHAT WE ALREADY HAVE. TEMPS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEG COOLER THAN TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PLANNED. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW..

17

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFFSHORE THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH INFLUENCE ALL THE WAY SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA AND THE GULF COAST. AS STRONG UPPER HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GENERALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL/HYBRID
SYSTEMS LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL REMAIN WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS THIS
MORNING MAINLY FOR KMCN AND POSSIBLY KCSG. SOME LINGERING CIRRUS
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ANOTHER DRY FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD SHOULD INCREASE GRADIENT WINDS OUT OF NW THROUGH
TODAY INCREASING TO 8-10 KTS GUSTING 14-18 KTS AFTER 15-17Z...THEN
DECREASING TO 4-7 KTS AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          75  45  69  43 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         74  49  68  45 /   5   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     67  38  62  37 /  10   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    73  42  68  42 /  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        78  50  74  46 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     71  46  66  45 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           79  46  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  43  70  40 /  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  75  43  70  39 /   5   0   0   0
VIDALIA         81  53  74  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01/39
LONG TERM...DEESE/17
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS62 KCAE 210517
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
117 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD AND A WEAK
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WOULD NOT BE
MORE THAN SPRINKLES IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART BECAUSE OF THE DRY
LOW LEVELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. AIR MASS MODIFICATION HAS OCCURRED WITH WARMING IN THE WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND DEVELOPING
TROUGH. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...WITH
AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS WITH POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES EAST. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
BY SUNRISE. STILL SOME CHANCE OF FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS PRE-DAWN
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP AN MVFR TEMPO GROUP AND WATCH TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PUSHES EAST BY
TUESDAY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST
AFTER DAYBREAK GENERALLY UNDER 10KT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 210517
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
117 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD AND A WEAK
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WOULD NOT BE
MORE THAN SPRINKLES IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART BECAUSE OF THE DRY
LOW LEVELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. AIR MASS MODIFICATION HAS OCCURRED WITH WARMING IN THE WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND DEVELOPING
TROUGH. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...WITH
AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS WITH POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES EAST. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
BY SUNRISE. STILL SOME CHANCE OF FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS PRE-DAWN
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP AN MVFR TEMPO GROUP AND WATCH TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PUSHES EAST BY
TUESDAY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST
AFTER DAYBREAK GENERALLY UNDER 10KT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 210517
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
117 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD AND A WEAK
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WOULD NOT BE
MORE THAN SPRINKLES IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART BECAUSE OF THE DRY
LOW LEVELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. AIR MASS MODIFICATION HAS OCCURRED WITH WARMING IN THE WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND DEVELOPING
TROUGH. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...WITH
AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS WITH POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES EAST. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
BY SUNRISE. STILL SOME CHANCE OF FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS PRE-DAWN
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP AN MVFR TEMPO GROUP AND WATCH TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PUSHES EAST BY
TUESDAY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST
AFTER DAYBREAK GENERALLY UNDER 10KT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 210517
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
117 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD AND A WEAK
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WOULD NOT BE
MORE THAN SPRINKLES IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART BECAUSE OF THE DRY
LOW LEVELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. AIR MASS MODIFICATION HAS OCCURRED WITH WARMING IN THE WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND DEVELOPING
TROUGH. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...WITH
AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS WITH POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES EAST. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
BY SUNRISE. STILL SOME CHANCE OF FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS PRE-DAWN
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP AN MVFR TEMPO GROUP AND WATCH TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PUSHES EAST BY
TUESDAY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST
AFTER DAYBREAK GENERALLY UNDER 10KT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 210424
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1224 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA AND WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE PER CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
REIDSVILLE-BEAUFORT CORRIDOR...GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE COAST
THROUGH SUNRISE. 20/30 POPS IN THIS AREA LOOK ON TRACK WITH NON-
MENTIONABLE POPS ELSEWHERE. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL END FROM
WEST-EAST LATE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA SWINGS THROUGH. LOWS
FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S COAST LOOK
FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE AREA EARLY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
HELP PRODUCE FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA LATE. LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80S DEGREES AND GIVEN A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. HOWEVER...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND
WHERE FROPA OCCURS EARLIEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR
THE COAST.

THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
TEMPS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY AT KSAV THROUGH ABOUT 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/ON THE PERIPHERY
OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE/AWAY FROM THE COAST...SE
WINDS OVER GA WATERS AND S/SW WINDS OVER SC WATERS...MAINLY LESS
THAT 15 KT....WILL VEER WITH TIME AND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE W/NW AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND
2-3 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF AMZ350...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN
GENERAL...WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 3 FT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED POST FROPA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH BETWEEN
15-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING
WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 210424
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1224 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA AND WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE PER CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
REIDSVILLE-BEAUFORT CORRIDOR...GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE COAST
THROUGH SUNRISE. 20/30 POPS IN THIS AREA LOOK ON TRACK WITH NON-
MENTIONABLE POPS ELSEWHERE. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL END FROM
WEST-EAST LATE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA SWINGS THROUGH. LOWS
FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S COAST LOOK
FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE AREA EARLY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
HELP PRODUCE FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA LATE. LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80S DEGREES AND GIVEN A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. HOWEVER...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND
WHERE FROPA OCCURS EARLIEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR
THE COAST.

THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
TEMPS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY AT KSAV THROUGH ABOUT 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/ON THE PERIPHERY
OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE/AWAY FROM THE COAST...SE
WINDS OVER GA WATERS AND S/SW WINDS OVER SC WATERS...MAINLY LESS
THAT 15 KT....WILL VEER WITH TIME AND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE W/NW AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND
2-3 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF AMZ350...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN
GENERAL...WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 3 FT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED POST FROPA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH BETWEEN
15-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING
WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCAE 210241
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1041 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD AND A WEAK
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WOULD NOT BE
MORE THAN SPRINKLES IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART BECAUSE OF THE DRY
LOW LEVELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. AIR MASS MODIFICATION HAS OCCURRED WITH WARMING IN THE WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND DEVELOPING
TROUGH. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...WITH
AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS WITH POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. CANNOT RULE OUT RESTRICTIONS AT FOG PRONE
AGS/OGB IN EARLY MORNING FOG...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS
QUITE LIMITED. HAVE HANDLED WITH A TEMPO GROUP AT AGS FOR NOW AND
WILL REFINE AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND PUSHES EAST TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME
LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT AND WILL AND PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 210241
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1041 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD AND A WEAK
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WOULD NOT BE
MORE THAN SPRINKLES IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART BECAUSE OF THE DRY
LOW LEVELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. AIR MASS MODIFICATION HAS OCCURRED WITH WARMING IN THE WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND DEVELOPING
TROUGH. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...WITH
AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS WITH POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. CANNOT RULE OUT RESTRICTIONS AT FOG PRONE
AGS/OGB IN EARLY MORNING FOG...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS
QUITE LIMITED. HAVE HANDLED WITH A TEMPO GROUP AT AGS FOR NOW AND
WILL REFINE AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND PUSHES EAST TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME
LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT AND WILL AND PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 210241
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1041 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD AND A WEAK
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WOULD NOT BE
MORE THAN SPRINKLES IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART BECAUSE OF THE DRY
LOW LEVELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. AIR MASS MODIFICATION HAS OCCURRED WITH WARMING IN THE WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND DEVELOPING
TROUGH. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...WITH
AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS WITH POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. CANNOT RULE OUT RESTRICTIONS AT FOG PRONE
AGS/OGB IN EARLY MORNING FOG...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS
QUITE LIMITED. HAVE HANDLED WITH A TEMPO GROUP AT AGS FOR NOW AND
WILL REFINE AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND PUSHES EAST TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME
LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT AND WILL AND PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 210241
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1041 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD AND A WEAK
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WOULD NOT BE
MORE THAN SPRINKLES IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART BECAUSE OF THE DRY
LOW LEVELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. AIR MASS MODIFICATION HAS OCCURRED WITH WARMING IN THE WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND DEVELOPING
TROUGH. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...WITH
AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS WITH POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. CANNOT RULE OUT RESTRICTIONS AT FOG PRONE
AGS/OGB IN EARLY MORNING FOG...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS
QUITE LIMITED. HAVE HANDLED WITH A TEMPO GROUP AT AGS FOR NOW AND
WILL REFINE AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND PUSHES EAST TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME
LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT AND WILL AND PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 210241
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1041 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD AND A WEAK
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WOULD NOT BE
MORE THAN SPRINKLES IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART BECAUSE OF THE DRY
LOW LEVELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. AIR MASS MODIFICATION HAS OCCURRED WITH WARMING IN THE WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND DEVELOPING
TROUGH. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...WITH
AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS WITH POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. CANNOT RULE OUT RESTRICTIONS AT FOG PRONE
AGS/OGB IN EARLY MORNING FOG...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS
QUITE LIMITED. HAVE HANDLED WITH A TEMPO GROUP AT AGS FOR NOW AND
WILL REFINE AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND PUSHES EAST TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME
LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT AND WILL AND PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 210241
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1041 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD AND A WEAK
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WOULD NOT BE
MORE THAN SPRINKLES IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART BECAUSE OF THE DRY
LOW LEVELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. AIR MASS MODIFICATION HAS OCCURRED WITH WARMING IN THE WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND DEVELOPING
TROUGH. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...WITH
AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS WITH POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. CANNOT RULE OUT RESTRICTIONS AT FOG PRONE
AGS/OGB IN EARLY MORNING FOG...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS
QUITE LIMITED. HAVE HANDLED WITH A TEMPO GROUP AT AGS FOR NOW AND
WILL REFINE AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND PUSHES EAST TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME
LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT AND WILL AND PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 210241
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1041 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD AND A WEAK
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WOULD NOT BE
MORE THAN SPRINKLES IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART BECAUSE OF THE DRY
LOW LEVELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. AIR MASS MODIFICATION HAS OCCURRED WITH WARMING IN THE WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND DEVELOPING
TROUGH. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...WITH
AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS WITH POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. CANNOT RULE OUT RESTRICTIONS AT FOG PRONE
AGS/OGB IN EARLY MORNING FOG...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS
QUITE LIMITED. HAVE HANDLED WITH A TEMPO GROUP AT AGS FOR NOW AND
WILL REFINE AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND PUSHES EAST TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME
LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT AND WILL AND PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 210241
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1041 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD AND A WEAK
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WOULD NOT BE
MORE THAN SPRINKLES IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART BECAUSE OF THE DRY
LOW LEVELS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. AIR MASS MODIFICATION HAS OCCURRED WITH WARMING IN THE WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND DEVELOPING
TROUGH. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...WITH
AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS WITH POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. CANNOT RULE OUT RESTRICTIONS AT FOG PRONE
AGS/OGB IN EARLY MORNING FOG...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS
QUITE LIMITED. HAVE HANDLED WITH A TEMPO GROUP AT AGS FOR NOW AND
WILL REFINE AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND PUSHES EAST TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME
LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT AND WILL AND PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCHS 210230
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1030 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA AND WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PER ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES...EXPANDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THESE AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WILL END THE CHANCE FOR ANY INLAND PRECIP
BY LATER TONIGHT.

LATE MONDAY EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED SOUTH OF I-16
AND WEST OF I-95...NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COINCIDED WITH A PLUME OF ELEVATED SURFACE-850 MB
THETA-E/SURFACE LIFTED INDICES AROUND ZERO. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION SUGGESTING THAT THESE SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE N/E IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING/ AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND THE PASSAGE OF
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT. FINE-TUNED POPS
ACCORDINGLY...TAPERED FROM CHANCE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST...BUT POPS DROP OFF TO VIRTUALLY ZERO
INLAND AFTER THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES LATER TONIGHT.

THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AROUND 800 MB AS DEPICTED BY
THE 00Z KCHS AND KJAX SOUNDINGS WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST SUFFICIENTLY TO
LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF MOIST UPDRAFTS. THUS...A MENTION OF
THUNDER IS NOT JUSTIFIED OVER LAND.

MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COULD PROLONG SHOWERS OVER COASTAL WATERS AND PERHAPS EVEN
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S MOST AREAS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS W/NW WINDS PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE. ON THE BEACHES...
TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 60S MOST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE AREA EARLY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
HELP PRODUCE FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA LATE. LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80S DEGREES AND GIVEN A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. HOWEVER...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND
WHERE FROPA OCCURS EARLIEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR
THE COAST.

THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
TEMPS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS 03Z-06Z UNTIL 09-12Z...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...BUT LIMITED
MENTION TO VCSH WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/ON THE PERIPHERY
OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE/AWAY FROM THE COAST...SE
WINDS OVER GA WATERS AND S/SW WINDS OVER SC WATERS...MAINLY LESS
THAT 15 KT....WILL VEER WITH TIME AND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE W/NW AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND
2-3 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF AMZ350...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN
GENERAL...WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 3 FT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED POST FROPA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH BETWEEN
15-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING
WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 210230
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1030 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA AND WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PER ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES...EXPANDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THESE AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WILL END THE CHANCE FOR ANY INLAND PRECIP
BY LATER TONIGHT.

LATE MONDAY EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED SOUTH OF I-16
AND WEST OF I-95...NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COINCIDED WITH A PLUME OF ELEVATED SURFACE-850 MB
THETA-E/SURFACE LIFTED INDICES AROUND ZERO. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION SUGGESTING THAT THESE SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE N/E IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING/ AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND THE PASSAGE OF
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT. FINE-TUNED POPS
ACCORDINGLY...TAPERED FROM CHANCE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST...BUT POPS DROP OFF TO VIRTUALLY ZERO
INLAND AFTER THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES LATER TONIGHT.

THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AROUND 800 MB AS DEPICTED BY
THE 00Z KCHS AND KJAX SOUNDINGS WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST SUFFICIENTLY TO
LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF MOIST UPDRAFTS. THUS...A MENTION OF
THUNDER IS NOT JUSTIFIED OVER LAND.

MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COULD PROLONG SHOWERS OVER COASTAL WATERS AND PERHAPS EVEN
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S MOST AREAS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS W/NW WINDS PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE. ON THE BEACHES...
TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 60S MOST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE AREA EARLY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
HELP PRODUCE FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA LATE. LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80S DEGREES AND GIVEN A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. HOWEVER...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND
WHERE FROPA OCCURS EARLIEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR
THE COAST.

THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
TEMPS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS 03Z-06Z UNTIL 09-12Z...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...BUT LIMITED
MENTION TO VCSH WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/ON THE PERIPHERY
OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE/AWAY FROM THE COAST...SE
WINDS OVER GA WATERS AND S/SW WINDS OVER SC WATERS...MAINLY LESS
THAT 15 KT....WILL VEER WITH TIME AND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE W/NW AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND
2-3 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF AMZ350...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN
GENERAL...WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 3 FT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED POST FROPA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH BETWEEN
15-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING
WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR






000
FXUS62 KCHS 210226
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1026 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA AND WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PER ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES...EXPANDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THESE AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WILL END THE CHANCE FOR ANY INLAND PRECIP
BY LATER TONIGHT.

LATE MONDAY EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED SOUTH OF I-16
AND WEST OF I-95...NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COINCIDED WITH A PLUME OF ELEVATED SURFACE-850 MB
THETA-E/SURFACE LIFTED INDICES AROUND ZERO. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION SUGGESTING THAT THESE SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE E/NE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING/
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND THE PASSAGE OF AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT. FINE-TUNED POPS ACCORDINGLY...TAPERED
FROM CHANCE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST...WITH POPS DROPPING OFF TO VIRTUALLY ZERO INLAND.

THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AROUND 800 MB AS DEPICTED BY
THE 00Z KCHS AND KJAX SOUNDINGS WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST SUFFICIENTLY TO
LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF MOIST UPDRAFTS. THUS...A MENTION OF
THUNDER IS NOT JUSTIFIED OVER LAND.

MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COULD PROLONG SHOWERS OVER COASTAL WATERS AND PERHAPS EVEN
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S MOST AREAS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS W/NW WINDS PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE. ON THE BEACHES...
TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 60S MOST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE AREA EARLY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
HELP PRODUCE FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA LATE. LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80S DEGREES AND GIVEN A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. HOWEVER...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND
WHERE FROPA OCCURS EARLIEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR
THE COAST.

THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
TEMPS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS 03Z-06Z UNTIL 09-12Z...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...BUT LIMITED
MENTION TO VCSH WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/ON THE PERIPHERY
OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE/AWAY FROM THE COAST...SE
WINDS OVER GA WATERS AND S/SW WINDS OVER SC WATERS...MAINLY LESS
THAT 15 KT....WILL VEER WITH TIME AND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE W/NW AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND
2-3 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF AMZ350...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN
GENERAL...WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 3 FT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED POST FROPA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH BETWEEN
15-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING
WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR






000
FXUS62 KCHS 210201
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1001 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA AND WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE MONDAY EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED SOUTH OF I-16
AND WEST OF I-95...NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COINCIDED WITH A PLUME OF ELEVATED SURFACE-850 MB
THETA-E/SURFACE LIFTED INDICES AROUND ZERO. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION SUGGESTING THAT THESE SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE E/NE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING/
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND THE PASSAGE OF AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT. FINE-TUNED POPS ACCORDINGLY...TAPERED
FROM CHANCE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST...WITH POPS DROPPING OFF TO VIRTUALLY ZERO INLAND.

THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AROUND 800 MB AS DEPICTED BY
THE 00Z KCHS AND KJAX SOUNDINGS WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST SUFFICIENTLY TO
LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF MOIST UPDRAFTS. THUS...A MENTION OF
THUNDER IS NOT JUSTIFIED OVER LAND.

MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COULD PROLONG SHOWERS OVER COASTAL WATERS AND PERHAPS EVEN
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S MOST AREAS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS W/NW WINDS PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE. ON THE BEACHES...
TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 60S MOST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE AREA EARLY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
HELP PRODUCE FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA LATE. LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80S DEGREES AND GIVEN A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. HOWEVER...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND
WHERE FROPA OCCURS EARLIEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR
THE COAST.

THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
TEMPS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS 03Z-06Z UNTIL 09-12Z...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...BUT LIMITED
MENTION TO VCSH WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/ON THE PERIPHERY
OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE/AWAY FROM THE COAST...SE
WINDS OVER GA WATERS AND S/SW WINDS OVER SC WATERS...MAINLY LESS
THAT 15 KT....WILL VEER WITH TIME AND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE W/NW AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND
2-3 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF AMZ350...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN
GENERAL...WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 3 FT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED POST FROPA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH BETWEEN
15-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING
WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 210201
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1001 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA AND WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE MONDAY EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED SOUTH OF I-16
AND WEST OF I-95...NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COINCIDED WITH A PLUME OF ELEVATED SURFACE-850 MB
THETA-E/SURFACE LIFTED INDICES AROUND ZERO. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION SUGGESTING THAT THESE SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE E/NE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING/
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND THE PASSAGE OF AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT. FINE-TUNED POPS ACCORDINGLY...TAPERED
FROM CHANCE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST...WITH POPS DROPPING OFF TO VIRTUALLY ZERO INLAND.

THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AROUND 800 MB AS DEPICTED BY
THE 00Z KCHS AND KJAX SOUNDINGS WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST SUFFICIENTLY TO
LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF MOIST UPDRAFTS. THUS...A MENTION OF
THUNDER IS NOT JUSTIFIED OVER LAND.

MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COULD PROLONG SHOWERS OVER COASTAL WATERS AND PERHAPS EVEN
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S MOST AREAS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS W/NW WINDS PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE. ON THE BEACHES...
TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 60S MOST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE AREA EARLY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
HELP PRODUCE FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA LATE. LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80S DEGREES AND GIVEN A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. HOWEVER...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND
WHERE FROPA OCCURS EARLIEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR
THE COAST.

THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
TEMPS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS 03Z-06Z UNTIL 09-12Z...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...BUT LIMITED
MENTION TO VCSH WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/ON THE PERIPHERY
OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE/AWAY FROM THE COAST...SE
WINDS OVER GA WATERS AND S/SW WINDS OVER SC WATERS...MAINLY LESS
THAT 15 KT....WILL VEER WITH TIME AND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE W/NW AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND
2-3 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF AMZ350...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN
GENERAL...WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 3 FT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED POST FROPA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH BETWEEN
15-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING
WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR






000
FXUS62 KCHS 210201
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1001 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA AND WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE MONDAY EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED SOUTH OF I-16
AND WEST OF I-95...NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COINCIDED WITH A PLUME OF ELEVATED SURFACE-850 MB
THETA-E/SURFACE LIFTED INDICES AROUND ZERO. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION SUGGESTING THAT THESE SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE E/NE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING/
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND THE PASSAGE OF AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT. FINE-TUNED POPS ACCORDINGLY...TAPERED
FROM CHANCE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST...WITH POPS DROPPING OFF TO VIRTUALLY ZERO INLAND.

THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AROUND 800 MB AS DEPICTED BY
THE 00Z KCHS AND KJAX SOUNDINGS WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST SUFFICIENTLY TO
LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF MOIST UPDRAFTS. THUS...A MENTION OF
THUNDER IS NOT JUSTIFIED OVER LAND.

MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COULD PROLONG SHOWERS OVER COASTAL WATERS AND PERHAPS EVEN
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S MOST AREAS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS W/NW WINDS PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE. ON THE BEACHES...
TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 60S MOST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE AREA EARLY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
HELP PRODUCE FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA LATE. LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80S DEGREES AND GIVEN A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. HOWEVER...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND
WHERE FROPA OCCURS EARLIEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR
THE COAST.

THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
TEMPS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS 03Z-06Z UNTIL 09-12Z...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...BUT LIMITED
MENTION TO VCSH WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/ON THE PERIPHERY
OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE/AWAY FROM THE COAST...SE
WINDS OVER GA WATERS AND S/SW WINDS OVER SC WATERS...MAINLY LESS
THAT 15 KT....WILL VEER WITH TIME AND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE W/NW AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND
2-3 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF AMZ350...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN
GENERAL...WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 3 FT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED POST FROPA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH BETWEEN
15-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING
WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR






000
FXUS62 KCAE 210138
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
938 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD AND A WEAK
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR IS
IN PLACE. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING BUT THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. AIR MASS MODIFICATION HAS
OCCURRED WITH WARMING IN THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND DEVELOPING TROUGH. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...WITH
AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS WITH POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MOST OF THE STRATOCUMULUS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEGUN TO
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET....MAKING WAY FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS. CANNOT RULE OUT
FLUCTUATING RESTRICTIONS AT FOG PRONE AGS...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. HAVE HANDLED WITH A TEMPO GROUP
FOR NOW AND WILL REFINE AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT OR CALM THIS EVENING AND
WILL AND PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 202341
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
741 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD TONIGHT. A
WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THE PRESSURE RIDGE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR IS
IN PLACE. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS
SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. AIR MASS MODIFICATION HAS OCCURRED WITH
WARMING IN THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE
HIGH AND DEVELOPING TROUGH. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE
WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...WITH
AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS WITH POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MOST OF THE STRATOCUMULUS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEGUN TO
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET....MAKING WAY FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS. CANNOT RULE OUT
FLUCTUATING RESTRICTIONS AT FOG PRONE AGS...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. HAVE HANDLED WITH A TEMPO GROUP
FOR NOW AND WILL REFINE AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT OR CALM THIS EVENING AND
WILL AND PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 202341
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
741 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD TONIGHT. A
WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THE PRESSURE RIDGE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR IS
IN PLACE. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS
SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. AIR MASS MODIFICATION HAS OCCURRED WITH
WARMING IN THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE
HIGH AND DEVELOPING TROUGH. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE
WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...WITH
AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS WITH POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MOST OF THE STRATOCUMULUS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEGUN TO
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET....MAKING WAY FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS. CANNOT RULE OUT
FLUCTUATING RESTRICTIONS AT FOG PRONE AGS...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. HAVE HANDLED WITH A TEMPO GROUP
FOR NOW AND WILL REFINE AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT OR CALM THIS EVENING AND
WILL AND PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 202336
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.EVENING UPDATE...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS SPREADING SOME MID CLOUDS OVER NORTH GA
THIS EVENING... WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE... BUT NOTHING IS
EXPECTED TO MEASURE. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TO FAR
NORTH GA TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OUT AS THEY
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE NW. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH GA AROUND 4-6 AM
TUE MORNING... THEN SWEEP ACROSS ATLANTA METRO BETWEEN 8-10 AM
TUE... THEN ACROSS COLUMBUS AND MACON BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM TUE.
SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE... CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK IF CLOUDS THIN AS
EXPECTED. /39


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/
COOL TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM. A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S TO NEAR 50. EXPECTING A BIT COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS DRY COLD FRONT ILL JUST USHER IN A LITTLE BIT
COOLER AIRMASS TO HELP REINFORCE WHAT WE ALREADY HAVE. TEMPS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEG COOLER THAN TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.

01


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PLANNED. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW..

17

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFFSHORE THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH INFLUENCE ALL THE WAY SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA AND THE GULF COAST. AS STRONG UPPER HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GENERALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL/HYBRID
SYSTEMS LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL REMAIN WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SCT CLOUDS
AROUND 8000 TO 12000FT TO SPREAD ACROSS ATL BY 01-02Z THIS
EVENING... BUT THEN THIN OUT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD
PERSIST UNTIL A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA... RESULTING
IN NW WINDS AROUND 5-6KTS FOR ATLANTA TAFS BY 09-10Z TUE... THEN
INCREASING TO AROUND 10-12KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY 16-17Z TUE. NO
PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY IS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          49  75  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         54  74  49  68 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     46  67  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  73  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        53  78  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     51  71  46  66 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           47  78  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            47  73  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  47  75  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         54  79  54  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01/39
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...39








000
FXUS62 KFFC 202336
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.EVENING UPDATE...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS SPREADING SOME MID CLOUDS OVER NORTH GA
THIS EVENING... WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE... BUT NOTHING IS
EXPECTED TO MEASURE. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TO FAR
NORTH GA TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OUT AS THEY
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE NW. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH GA AROUND 4-6 AM
TUE MORNING... THEN SWEEP ACROSS ATLANTA METRO BETWEEN 8-10 AM
TUE... THEN ACROSS COLUMBUS AND MACON BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM TUE.
SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE... CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK IF CLOUDS THIN AS
EXPECTED. /39


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/
COOL TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM. A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S TO NEAR 50. EXPECTING A BIT COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS DRY COLD FRONT ILL JUST USHER IN A LITTLE BIT
COOLER AIRMASS TO HELP REINFORCE WHAT WE ALREADY HAVE. TEMPS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEG COOLER THAN TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.

01


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PLANNED. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW..

17

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFFSHORE THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH INFLUENCE ALL THE WAY SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA AND THE GULF COAST. AS STRONG UPPER HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GENERALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL/HYBRID
SYSTEMS LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL REMAIN WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SCT CLOUDS
AROUND 8000 TO 12000FT TO SPREAD ACROSS ATL BY 01-02Z THIS
EVENING... BUT THEN THIN OUT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD
PERSIST UNTIL A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA... RESULTING
IN NW WINDS AROUND 5-6KTS FOR ATLANTA TAFS BY 09-10Z TUE... THEN
INCREASING TO AROUND 10-12KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY 16-17Z TUE. NO
PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY IS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          49  75  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         54  74  49  68 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     46  67  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  73  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        53  78  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     51  71  46  66 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           47  78  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            47  73  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  47  75  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         54  79  54  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01/39
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...39








000
FXUS62 KFFC 202336
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.EVENING UPDATE...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS SPREADING SOME MID CLOUDS OVER NORTH GA
THIS EVENING... WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE... BUT NOTHING IS
EXPECTED TO MEASURE. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TO FAR
NORTH GA TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OUT AS THEY
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE NW. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH GA AROUND 4-6 AM
TUE MORNING... THEN SWEEP ACROSS ATLANTA METRO BETWEEN 8-10 AM
TUE... THEN ACROSS COLUMBUS AND MACON BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM TUE.
SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE... CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK IF CLOUDS THIN AS
EXPECTED. /39


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/
COOL TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM. A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S TO NEAR 50. EXPECTING A BIT COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS DRY COLD FRONT ILL JUST USHER IN A LITTLE BIT
COOLER AIRMASS TO HELP REINFORCE WHAT WE ALREADY HAVE. TEMPS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEG COOLER THAN TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.

01


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PLANNED. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW..

17

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFFSHORE THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH INFLUENCE ALL THE WAY SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA AND THE GULF COAST. AS STRONG UPPER HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GENERALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL/HYBRID
SYSTEMS LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL REMAIN WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SCT CLOUDS
AROUND 8000 TO 12000FT TO SPREAD ACROSS ATL BY 01-02Z THIS
EVENING... BUT THEN THIN OUT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD
PERSIST UNTIL A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA... RESULTING
IN NW WINDS AROUND 5-6KTS FOR ATLANTA TAFS BY 09-10Z TUE... THEN
INCREASING TO AROUND 10-12KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY 16-17Z TUE. NO
PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY IS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          49  75  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         54  74  49  68 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     46  67  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  73  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        53  78  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     51  71  46  66 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           47  78  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            47  73  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  47  75  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         54  79  54  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01/39
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...39








000
FXUS62 KFFC 202336
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.EVENING UPDATE...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS SPREADING SOME MID CLOUDS OVER NORTH GA
THIS EVENING... WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE... BUT NOTHING IS
EXPECTED TO MEASURE. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TO FAR
NORTH GA TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OUT AS THEY
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE NW. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH GA AROUND 4-6 AM
TUE MORNING... THEN SWEEP ACROSS ATLANTA METRO BETWEEN 8-10 AM
TUE... THEN ACROSS COLUMBUS AND MACON BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM TUE.
SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE... CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK IF CLOUDS THIN AS
EXPECTED. /39


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/
COOL TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM. A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S TO NEAR 50. EXPECTING A BIT COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS DRY COLD FRONT ILL JUST USHER IN A LITTLE BIT
COOLER AIRMASS TO HELP REINFORCE WHAT WE ALREADY HAVE. TEMPS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEG COOLER THAN TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.

01


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PLANNED. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW..

17

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFFSHORE THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH INFLUENCE ALL THE WAY SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA AND THE GULF COAST. AS STRONG UPPER HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GENERALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL/HYBRID
SYSTEMS LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL REMAIN WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SCT CLOUDS
AROUND 8000 TO 12000FT TO SPREAD ACROSS ATL BY 01-02Z THIS
EVENING... BUT THEN THIN OUT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD
PERSIST UNTIL A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA... RESULTING
IN NW WINDS AROUND 5-6KTS FOR ATLANTA TAFS BY 09-10Z TUE... THEN
INCREASING TO AROUND 10-12KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY 16-17Z TUE. NO
PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY IS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          49  75  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         54  74  49  68 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     46  67  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  73  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        53  78  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     51  71  46  66 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           47  78  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            47  73  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  47  75  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         54  79  54  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01/39
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...39








000
FXUS62 KCHS 202257
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
657 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA AND WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL EVENING...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A
A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED FORCING
FOR ASCENT WAS ALREADY PRODUCING SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND THIS REGIME WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. TO VARYING DEGREES...LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INTERACTS WITH AN AIRMASS
FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/60S. MAINTAINED ONGOING SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FROM LATE EVENING/AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY EAST OF I-95...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS FARTHER INLAND. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER COVERAGE AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE MORE AGGRESSIVE/MORE UNSTABLE 18Z NAM.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES UP UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND WILL PUSH COOLER TEMPS IN
THE 50S INTO THE REGION AND TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE AREA EARLY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
HELP PRODUCE FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA LATE. LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80S DEGREES AND GIVEN A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. HOWEVER...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND
WHERE FROPA OCCURS EARLIEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR
THE COAST.

THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
TEMPS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS 04Z-06Z UNTIL 10-12Z...BUT LIMITED MENTION TO VCSH
WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/ON THE PERIPHERY
OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE/AWAY FROM THE COAST...THE
REMNANT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SW WINDS AS HIGH
AS 15 KT. THEN...WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE W/NW AT SIMILAR SPEEDS
AS THE TROUGH PASSES LATE. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2-3 FT...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST AFTER 9 OR 10 PM...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN
GENERAL...WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 3 FT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED POST FROPA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH BETWEEN
15-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING
WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 202257
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
657 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA AND WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL EVENING...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A
A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED FORCING
FOR ASCENT WAS ALREADY PRODUCING SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND THIS REGIME WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. TO VARYING DEGREES...LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INTERACTS WITH AN AIRMASS
FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/60S. MAINTAINED ONGOING SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FROM LATE EVENING/AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY EAST OF I-95...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS FARTHER INLAND. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER COVERAGE AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE MORE AGGRESSIVE/MORE UNSTABLE 18Z NAM.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES UP UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND WILL PUSH COOLER TEMPS IN
THE 50S INTO THE REGION AND TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE AREA EARLY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
HELP PRODUCE FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA LATE. LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80S DEGREES AND GIVEN A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. HOWEVER...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND
WHERE FROPA OCCURS EARLIEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR
THE COAST.

THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
TEMPS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS 04Z-06Z UNTIL 10-12Z...BUT LIMITED MENTION TO VCSH
WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/ON THE PERIPHERY
OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE/AWAY FROM THE COAST...THE
REMNANT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SW WINDS AS HIGH
AS 15 KT. THEN...WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE W/NW AT SIMILAR SPEEDS
AS THE TROUGH PASSES LATE. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2-3 FT...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST AFTER 9 OR 10 PM...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN
GENERAL...WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 3 FT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED POST FROPA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH BETWEEN
15-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING
WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 202257
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
657 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA AND WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL EVENING...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A
A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED FORCING
FOR ASCENT WAS ALREADY PRODUCING SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND THIS REGIME WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. TO VARYING DEGREES...LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INTERACTS WITH AN AIRMASS
FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/60S. MAINTAINED ONGOING SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FROM LATE EVENING/AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY EAST OF I-95...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS FARTHER INLAND. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER COVERAGE AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE MORE AGGRESSIVE/MORE UNSTABLE 18Z NAM.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES UP UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND WILL PUSH COOLER TEMPS IN
THE 50S INTO THE REGION AND TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE AREA EARLY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
HELP PRODUCE FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA LATE. LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80S DEGREES AND GIVEN A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. HOWEVER...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND
WHERE FROPA OCCURS EARLIEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR
THE COAST.

THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
TEMPS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS 04Z-06Z UNTIL 10-12Z...BUT LIMITED MENTION TO VCSH
WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/ON THE PERIPHERY
OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE/AWAY FROM THE COAST...THE
REMNANT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SW WINDS AS HIGH
AS 15 KT. THEN...WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE W/NW AT SIMILAR SPEEDS
AS THE TROUGH PASSES LATE. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2-3 FT...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST AFTER 9 OR 10 PM...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN
GENERAL...WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 3 FT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED POST FROPA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH BETWEEN
15-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING
WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 202257
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
657 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA AND WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL EVENING...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A
A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED FORCING
FOR ASCENT WAS ALREADY PRODUCING SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND THIS REGIME WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. TO VARYING DEGREES...LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INTERACTS WITH AN AIRMASS
FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/60S. MAINTAINED ONGOING SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FROM LATE EVENING/AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY EAST OF I-95...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS FARTHER INLAND. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER COVERAGE AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE MORE AGGRESSIVE/MORE UNSTABLE 18Z NAM.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES UP UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND WILL PUSH COOLER TEMPS IN
THE 50S INTO THE REGION AND TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE AREA EARLY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
HELP PRODUCE FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA LATE. LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80S DEGREES AND GIVEN A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. HOWEVER...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND
WHERE FROPA OCCURS EARLIEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR
THE COAST.

THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
TEMPS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS 04Z-06Z UNTIL 10-12Z...BUT LIMITED MENTION TO VCSH
WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/ON THE PERIPHERY
OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE/AWAY FROM THE COAST...THE
REMNANT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SW WINDS AS HIGH
AS 15 KT. THEN...WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE W/NW AT SIMILAR SPEEDS
AS THE TROUGH PASSES LATE. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2-3 FT...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST AFTER 9 OR 10 PM...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN
GENERAL...WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 3 FT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED POST FROPA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH BETWEEN
15-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING
WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 202257
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
657 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA AND WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL EVENING...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A
A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED FORCING
FOR ASCENT WAS ALREADY PRODUCING SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND THIS REGIME WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. TO VARYING DEGREES...LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INTERACTS WITH AN AIRMASS
FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/60S. MAINTAINED ONGOING SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FROM LATE EVENING/AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY EAST OF I-95...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS FARTHER INLAND. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER COVERAGE AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE MORE AGGRESSIVE/MORE UNSTABLE 18Z NAM.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES UP UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND WILL PUSH COOLER TEMPS IN
THE 50S INTO THE REGION AND TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE AREA EARLY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
HELP PRODUCE FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA LATE. LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80S DEGREES AND GIVEN A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. HOWEVER...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND
WHERE FROPA OCCURS EARLIEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR
THE COAST.

THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
TEMPS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS 04Z-06Z UNTIL 10-12Z...BUT LIMITED MENTION TO VCSH
WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/ON THE PERIPHERY
OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE/AWAY FROM THE COAST...THE
REMNANT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SW WINDS AS HIGH
AS 15 KT. THEN...WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE W/NW AT SIMILAR SPEEDS
AS THE TROUGH PASSES LATE. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2-3 FT...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST AFTER 9 OR 10 PM...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN
GENERAL...WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 3 FT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED POST FROPA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH BETWEEN
15-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING
WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR






000
FXUS62 KCAE 202036
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
436 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD TONIGHT. A
WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THE PRESSURE RIDGE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR IS
IN PLACE. SOME STRATOCUMULUS OVER PART OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION HAS OCCURRED WITH WARMING IN THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND DEVELOPING TROUGH. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO
AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...WITH
AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS WITH POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A FEW
STRATOCUMULUS AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
STRATOCUMULUS TO FADE WITH SUNSET...MAKING WAY FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING. LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP OUT OF
THE WEST AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT FLUCTUATING
RESTRICTIONS AT FOG PRONE AGS...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 202036
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
436 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD TONIGHT. A
WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THE PRESSURE RIDGE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR IS
IN PLACE. SOME STRATOCUMULUS OVER PART OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION HAS OCCURRED WITH WARMING IN THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND DEVELOPING TROUGH. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO
AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...WITH
AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS WITH POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A FEW
STRATOCUMULUS AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
STRATOCUMULUS TO FADE WITH SUNSET...MAKING WAY FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING. LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP OUT OF
THE WEST AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT FLUCTUATING
RESTRICTIONS AT FOG PRONE AGS...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 202000
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
400 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER
EASTWARD TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED.
THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR IS
IN PLACE. SOME STRATOCUMULUS OVER PART OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION HAS OCCURRED WITH WARMING IN THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND DEVELOPING TROUGH. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO
AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...WITH
AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS WITH POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AS
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. LIGHT SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
DAY BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 202000
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
400 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER
EASTWARD TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED.
THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR IS
IN PLACE. SOME STRATOCUMULUS OVER PART OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION HAS OCCURRED WITH WARMING IN THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND DEVELOPING TROUGH. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO
AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...WITH
AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS WITH POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AS
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. LIGHT SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
DAY BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 201943
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
343 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PULL EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT AS A WEAK
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WARM CONDITIONS WITH AN EXTENSIVE BUT MOSTLY
FLAT CUMULUS FIELD...AS THE SEA BREEZE CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK
INLAND AND REACHES NEAR OR WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY SUNSET.

TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET.
FOR AWHILE WE SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO PARTLY CLOUDY...BEFORE THE
ARRIVAL OF THE TAIL END OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS UPSTREAM ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID MS VALLEY AS OF LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL
TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN RESPONSE FROM ABOUT 10 PM
TO 3 AM THE FLOW IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER BACKS A LITTLE SOUTH/SW AND
PULLS UP SOME MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OUT OF THE GULF. THIS
ALONG WITH INCREASING ALBEIT WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ATOP THE
SURFACE TROUGH...A 80-90 KT UPPER JET MAX AND PVA IN RESPONSE TO THE
SHORT WAVE MAY SPUR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THE
BULK OF THE SHOWERS THOUGH WILL STAY OFFSHORE AND THERE WILL BE FINE
LINE BETWEEN WHERE IT DOES RAIN AND WHERE IT DOESN/T...AND LITTLE
QPF IS ANTICIPATED. AS THE PERTURBATION ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGH
PULL FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT ANY SHOWERS WILL
END...AND SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST/SW TO EAST/NE.

WITH SUBTLE WARM TO NEUTRAL ADVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WE
DON/T FORESEE TEMPS GETTING ANYWHERE NEAR AS LOW AS THEY WERE THIS
MORNING. BUT ONCE CLOUDS MOVE OUT LATE AND THE SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
NW WE LOOK FOR LOWS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN ALLENDALE TO PARTS OF
SCREVEN AND JENKINS...LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S MOST ELSEWHERE
INLAND...WITH UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE AREA EARLY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
HELP PRODUCE FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA LATE. LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80S DEGREES AND GIVEN A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. HOWEVER...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND
WHERE FROPA OCCURS EARLIEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR
THE COAST.

THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
TEMPS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL
IMPULSE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH THE 18Z TAFS...AS THE BULK OF
ANY RAIN AND SUB-VFR WEATHER STAYS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF BOTH
TERMINALS. CLEAR SKIES AND SOLID VFR WILL RETURN TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH THIS EVENING...LIGHT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND CLOCKWISE
FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE WATERS WITH SE
WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS OF 3 FT OR LOWER.

TONIGHT...A WEAK TROUGH WILL FORM OVER OR NEAR THE MARINE AREA AS A
1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CORE NEAR 38N AND 88W PULLS FURTHER AWAY TO
THE EAST AND NE. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO FOLLOW BEHIND THE RIDGE AND BY
LATE THERE REMAINS LITTLE IF ANY EVIDENCE OF THE TROUGH AS LAND
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DEVELOP. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR SE AND SOUTH
WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS EARLY ON...CLOCKING AROUND TO THE WEST AND NW
OF 15 KT OR LESS LATE. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT...GREATEST
ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST AFTER 9 OR 10 PM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN
GENERAL...WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 3 FT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED POST FROPA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH BETWEEN
15-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING
WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KFFC 201932
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
332 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COOL TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM. A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S TO NEAR 50. EXPECTING A BIT COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS DRY COLD FRONT ILL JUST USHER IN A LITTLE BIT
COOLER AIRMASS TO HELP REINFORCE WHAT WE ALREADY HAVE. TEMPS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEG COOLER THAN TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.

01


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PLANNED. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW..

17

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFFSHORE THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH INFLUENCE ALL THE WAY SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA AND THE GULF COAST. AS STRONG UPPER HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GENERALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL/HYBRID
SYSTEMS LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL REMAIN WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME FEW
TO SCT CLOUDS AROUND 3500 TO 4000FT BUT THEY ARE THINNING OUT.
WINDS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE WEST TO NW IN TO THE 5-10KT RANGE
TODAY AND INTO THE 6-12KT RANGE TUE. NO PRECIPITATION OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBSY EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          49  75  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         54  74  49  68 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     46  67  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  73  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        53  78  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     51  71  46  66 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           47  78  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            47  73  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  47  75  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         54  79  54  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01





000
FXUS62 KFFC 201932
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
332 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COOL TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM. A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S TO NEAR 50. EXPECTING A BIT COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS DRY COLD FRONT ILL JUST USHER IN A LITTLE BIT
COOLER AIRMASS TO HELP REINFORCE WHAT WE ALREADY HAVE. TEMPS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEG COOLER THAN TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.

01


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PLANNED. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW..

17

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFFSHORE THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH INFLUENCE ALL THE WAY SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA AND THE GULF COAST. AS STRONG UPPER HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GENERALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL/HYBRID
SYSTEMS LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL REMAIN WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME FEW
TO SCT CLOUDS AROUND 3500 TO 4000FT BUT THEY ARE THINNING OUT.
WINDS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE WEST TO NW IN TO THE 5-10KT RANGE
TODAY AND INTO THE 6-12KT RANGE TUE. NO PRECIPITATION OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBSY EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          49  75  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         54  74  49  68 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     46  67  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  73  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        53  78  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     51  71  46  66 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           47  78  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            47  73  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  47  75  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         54  79  54  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01






000
FXUS62 KFFC 201757
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
157 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHILLY START TO THE PERIOD THIS MORNING WITH SOME OF COOLEST TEMPS
STILL EXPECTED...MANY AREAS LOOKING TO DIP INTO THE LOW 40S. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY GET LOWER WITH OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING LACKING ANY CLOUD COVERAGE...EVEN THE CIRRUS FROM BEFORE.
COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTTY AREAS OF FROST IN SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA.

MODELS IN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE NORTH BY 00Z THIS EVENING AND WEAK SFC FRONT
TRAILING BEHIND. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE MOISTURE STARVED AND LACKING
GOOD LIFT SO HAVE KEPT AREA DRY BUT INCREASE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE IN
THE FAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. NEXT SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND ENHANCES THE GRADIENT WINDS FOR TUESDAY. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY CUTS OFF
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES TODAY THRU TUES.

BAKER

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFFSHORE THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH INFLUENCE ALL THE WAY SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA AND THE GULF COAST. AS STRONG UPPER HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GENERALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL/HYBRID
SYSTEMS LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL REMAIN WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME FEW
TO SCT CLOUDS AROUND 3500 TO 4000FT BUT THEY ARE THINNING OUT.
WINDS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE WEST TO NW IN TO THE 5-10KT RANGE
TODAY AND INTO THE 6-12KT RANGE TUE. NO PRECIPITATION OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBSY EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  49  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         72  54  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     66  46  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    72  46  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        74  53  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     68  51  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           75  47  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  47  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  72  47  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         77  54  79  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01






000
FXUS62 KFFC 201757
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
157 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHILLY START TO THE PERIOD THIS MORNING WITH SOME OF COOLEST TEMPS
STILL EXPECTED...MANY AREAS LOOKING TO DIP INTO THE LOW 40S. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY GET LOWER WITH OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING LACKING ANY CLOUD COVERAGE...EVEN THE CIRRUS FROM BEFORE.
COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTTY AREAS OF FROST IN SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA.

MODELS IN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE NORTH BY 00Z THIS EVENING AND WEAK SFC FRONT
TRAILING BEHIND. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE MOISTURE STARVED AND LACKING
GOOD LIFT SO HAVE KEPT AREA DRY BUT INCREASE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE IN
THE FAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. NEXT SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND ENHANCES THE GRADIENT WINDS FOR TUESDAY. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY CUTS OFF
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES TODAY THRU TUES.

BAKER

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFFSHORE THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH INFLUENCE ALL THE WAY SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA AND THE GULF COAST. AS STRONG UPPER HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GENERALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL/HYBRID
SYSTEMS LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL REMAIN WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME FEW
TO SCT CLOUDS AROUND 3500 TO 4000FT BUT THEY ARE THINNING OUT.
WINDS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE WEST TO NW IN TO THE 5-10KT RANGE
TODAY AND INTO THE 6-12KT RANGE TUE. NO PRECIPITATION OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBSY EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  49  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         72  54  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     66  46  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    72  46  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        74  53  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     68  51  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           75  47  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  47  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  72  47  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         77  54  79  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01





000
FXUS62 KCHS 201728
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
128 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LOCALLY
THROUGH THE DAY AS A VERY WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM ACROSS
THE NEARBY WATERS BY LATE DAY. A SMALL AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ABOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS
AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ONSHORE...BUT A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AROUND 850 MB AND THE
OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY MARINE BASED SHOWERS
FROM REACHING THE LAND ZONES. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS TO THE TEMP
CURVE WE HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO MOST PLACES.
THUS UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM...HIGHEST NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. SHORELINE COMMUNITIES WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY
THE SEA BREEZE...BUT STILL IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. THIS WILL
BE TEMP SWING OF AT LEAST 25-30 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THE SEA BREEZE AND ALSO ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH...CREATING PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS SOUTH AND SE...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH THE 18Z TAFS...AS THE
BULK OF ANY RAIN AND SUB-VFR WEATHER STAYS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF BOTH TERMINALS. CLEAR SKIES AND SOLID VFR WILL RETURN TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A 1021 MB HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NC...WHILE THE SW PORTION OF THE
RIDGE EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. A LAX PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A GENTLE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO VEER
WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND SE AT SPEEDS NO MORE THAN 10 OR 12 KT
ON AVERAGE. SEAS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3 FT...HIGHEST
ACROSS AMZ374.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CLOCK AROUND TO AN OFFSHORE FLOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 201728
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
128 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LOCALLY
THROUGH THE DAY AS A VERY WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM ACROSS
THE NEARBY WATERS BY LATE DAY. A SMALL AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ABOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS
AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ONSHORE...BUT A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AROUND 850 MB AND THE
OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY MARINE BASED SHOWERS
FROM REACHING THE LAND ZONES. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS TO THE TEMP
CURVE WE HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO MOST PLACES.
THUS UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM...HIGHEST NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. SHORELINE COMMUNITIES WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY
THE SEA BREEZE...BUT STILL IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. THIS WILL
BE TEMP SWING OF AT LEAST 25-30 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THE SEA BREEZE AND ALSO ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH...CREATING PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS SOUTH AND SE...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH THE 18Z TAFS...AS THE
BULK OF ANY RAIN AND SUB-VFR WEATHER STAYS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF BOTH TERMINALS. CLEAR SKIES AND SOLID VFR WILL RETURN TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A 1021 MB HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NC...WHILE THE SW PORTION OF THE
RIDGE EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. A LAX PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A GENTLE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO VEER
WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND SE AT SPEEDS NO MORE THAN 10 OR 12 KT
ON AVERAGE. SEAS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3 FT...HIGHEST
ACROSS AMZ374.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CLOCK AROUND TO AN OFFSHORE FLOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 201727
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
127 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATER TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...WITH
UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA LATE TUE/TUE NT. WITH A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE
INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR REGION. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP FORECAST DRY. FORECAST HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AS
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. LIGHT SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
DAY BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 201727
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
127 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATER TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...WITH
UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA LATE TUE/TUE NT. WITH A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE
INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR REGION. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP FORECAST DRY. FORECAST HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AS
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. LIGHT SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
DAY BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 201654
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1254 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LOCALLY
THROUGH THE DAY AS A VERY WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM ACROSS
THE NEARBY WATERS BY LATE DAY. A SMALL AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ABOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS
AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ONSHORE...BUT A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AROUND 850 MB AND THE
OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY MARINE BASED SHOWERS
FROM REACHING THE LAND ZONES. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS TO THE TEMP
CURVE WE HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO MOST PLACES.
THUS UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM...HIGHEST NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. SHORELINE COMMUNITIES WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY
THE SEA BREEZE...BUT STILL IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. THIS WILL
BE TEMP SWING OF AT LEAST 25-30 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THE SEA BREEZE AND ALSO ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH...CREATING PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS SOUTH AND SE...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A 1021 MB HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NC...WHILE THE SW PORTION OF THE
RIDGE EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. A LAX PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A GENTLE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO VEER
WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND SE AT SPEEDS NO MORE THAN 10 OR 12 KT
ON AVERAGE. SEAS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3 FT...HIGHEST
ACROSS AMZ374.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CLOCK AROUND TO AN OFFSHORE FLOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 201654
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1254 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LOCALLY
THROUGH THE DAY AS A VERY WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM ACROSS
THE NEARBY WATERS BY LATE DAY. A SMALL AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ABOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS
AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ONSHORE...BUT A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AROUND 850 MB AND THE
OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY MARINE BASED SHOWERS
FROM REACHING THE LAND ZONES. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS TO THE TEMP
CURVE WE HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO MOST PLACES.
THUS UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM...HIGHEST NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. SHORELINE COMMUNITIES WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY
THE SEA BREEZE...BUT STILL IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. THIS WILL
BE TEMP SWING OF AT LEAST 25-30 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THE SEA BREEZE AND ALSO ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH...CREATING PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS SOUTH AND SE...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A 1021 MB HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NC...WHILE THE SW PORTION OF THE
RIDGE EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. A LAX PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A GENTLE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO VEER
WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND SE AT SPEEDS NO MORE THAN 10 OR 12 KT
ON AVERAGE. SEAS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3 FT...HIGHEST
ACROSS AMZ374.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CLOCK AROUND TO AN OFFSHORE FLOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 201428
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1028 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LOCALLY
THROUGH THE DAY AS A VERY WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM ACROSS
THE NEARBY WATERS BY LATE DAY. A SMALL AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ABOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS
AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ONSHORE...BUT A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AROUND 850 MB AND THE
OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY MARINE BASED SHOWERS
FROM REACHING THE LAND ZONES. TEMPS ARE RAPIDLY RISING AND
ALTHOUGH THE SURGING TREND WILL SLOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON...A DECENT
AMOUNT OF INSOLATION PLUS WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS
TO PEAK IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ALL SECTIONS AWAY FROM THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SHORELINE.

WE HAVE DELAYED THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND ACTUALLY LOWERED
PERCENT SKY COVER INLAND. ON AVERAGE WE/LL START OFF MOSTLY
SUNNY...WITH SKIES TRENDING TO PARTLY SUNNY AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES..ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A 1021 MB HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS
THE SW PORTION OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
A LAX PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A GENTLE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE EAST AND SE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS OF 10 OR 15 KT THIS MORNING WILL
DROP TO 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3
FT...HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ374.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CLOCK AROUND TO AN OFFSHORE FLOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 201428
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1028 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LOCALLY
THROUGH THE DAY AS A VERY WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM ACROSS
THE NEARBY WATERS BY LATE DAY. A SMALL AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ABOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS
AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ONSHORE...BUT A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AROUND 850 MB AND THE
OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY MARINE BASED SHOWERS
FROM REACHING THE LAND ZONES. TEMPS ARE RAPIDLY RISING AND
ALTHOUGH THE SURGING TREND WILL SLOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON...A DECENT
AMOUNT OF INSOLATION PLUS WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS
TO PEAK IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ALL SECTIONS AWAY FROM THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SHORELINE.

WE HAVE DELAYED THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND ACTUALLY LOWERED
PERCENT SKY COVER INLAND. ON AVERAGE WE/LL START OFF MOSTLY
SUNNY...WITH SKIES TRENDING TO PARTLY SUNNY AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES..ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A 1021 MB HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS
THE SW PORTION OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
A LAX PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A GENTLE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE EAST AND SE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS OF 10 OR 15 KT THIS MORNING WILL
DROP TO 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3
FT...HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ374.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CLOCK AROUND TO AN OFFSHORE FLOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 201428
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1028 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LOCALLY
THROUGH THE DAY AS A VERY WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM ACROSS
THE NEARBY WATERS BY LATE DAY. A SMALL AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ABOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS
AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ONSHORE...BUT A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AROUND 850 MB AND THE
OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY MARINE BASED SHOWERS
FROM REACHING THE LAND ZONES. TEMPS ARE RAPIDLY RISING AND
ALTHOUGH THE SURGING TREND WILL SLOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON...A DECENT
AMOUNT OF INSOLATION PLUS WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS
TO PEAK IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ALL SECTIONS AWAY FROM THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SHORELINE.

WE HAVE DELAYED THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND ACTUALLY LOWERED
PERCENT SKY COVER INLAND. ON AVERAGE WE/LL START OFF MOSTLY
SUNNY...WITH SKIES TRENDING TO PARTLY SUNNY AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES..ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A 1021 MB HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS
THE SW PORTION OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
A LAX PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A GENTLE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE EAST AND SE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS OF 10 OR 15 KT THIS MORNING WILL
DROP TO 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3
FT...HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ374.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CLOCK AROUND TO AN OFFSHORE FLOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 201428
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1028 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LOCALLY
THROUGH THE DAY AS A VERY WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM ACROSS
THE NEARBY WATERS BY LATE DAY. A SMALL AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ABOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS
AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ONSHORE...BUT A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AROUND 850 MB AND THE
OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY MARINE BASED SHOWERS
FROM REACHING THE LAND ZONES. TEMPS ARE RAPIDLY RISING AND
ALTHOUGH THE SURGING TREND WILL SLOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON...A DECENT
AMOUNT OF INSOLATION PLUS WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS
TO PEAK IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ALL SECTIONS AWAY FROM THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SHORELINE.

WE HAVE DELAYED THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND ACTUALLY LOWERED
PERCENT SKY COVER INLAND. ON AVERAGE WE/LL START OFF MOSTLY
SUNNY...WITH SKIES TRENDING TO PARTLY SUNNY AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES..ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A 1021 MB HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS
THE SW PORTION OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
A LAX PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A GENTLE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE EAST AND SE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS OF 10 OR 15 KT THIS MORNING WILL
DROP TO 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3
FT...HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ374.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CLOCK AROUND TO AN OFFSHORE FLOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCAE 201428
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1028 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATER TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TUE/TUE NT. WITH A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR
REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FORECAST DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SCATTERED CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOME
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING COMBINED WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SATELLITE TRENDS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AND BY AFTERNOON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW
CU MAY DEVELOP WITH PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT SHOULD
BE THE EXTENT OF ANY CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLEAR AND
CALM MONDAY EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 201428
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1028 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATER TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TUE/TUE NT. WITH A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR
REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FORECAST DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SCATTERED CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOME
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING COMBINED WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SATELLITE TRENDS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AND BY AFTERNOON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW
CU MAY DEVELOP WITH PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT SHOULD
BE THE EXTENT OF ANY CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLEAR AND
CALM MONDAY EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 201428
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1028 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATER TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TUE/TUE NT. WITH A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR
REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FORECAST DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SCATTERED CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOME
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING COMBINED WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SATELLITE TRENDS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AND BY AFTERNOON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW
CU MAY DEVELOP WITH PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT SHOULD
BE THE EXTENT OF ANY CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLEAR AND
CALM MONDAY EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 201428
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1028 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATER TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TUE/TUE NT. WITH A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR
REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FORECAST DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SCATTERED CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOME
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING COMBINED WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SATELLITE TRENDS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AND BY AFTERNOON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW
CU MAY DEVELOP WITH PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT SHOULD
BE THE EXTENT OF ANY CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLEAR AND
CALM MONDAY EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 201152
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHILLY START TO THE PERIOD THIS MORNING WITH SOME OF COOLEST TEMPS
STILL EXPECTED...MANY AREAS LOOKING TO DIP INTO THE LOW 40S. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY GET LOWER WITH OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING LACKING ANY CLOUD COVERAGE...EVEN THE CIRRUS FROM BEFORE.
COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTTY AREAS OF FROST IN SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA.

MODELS IN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE NORTH BY 00Z THIS EVENING AND WEAK SFC FRONT
TRAILING BEHIND. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE MOISTURE STARVED AND LACKING
GOOD LIFT SO HAVE KEPT AREA DRY BUT INCREASE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE IN
THE FAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. NEXT SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND ENHANCES THE GRADIENT WINDS FOR TUESDAY. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY CUTS OFF
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES TODAY THRU TUES.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFFSHORE THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH INFLUENCE ALL THE WAY SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA AND THE GULF COAST. AS STRONG UPPER HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GENERALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL/HYBRID
SYSTEMS LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL REMAIN WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY
HAVING BRIEF INITIAL MVFR VSBYS THIS MORNING. POSSIBLE CU FIELD
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINKING JUST FEW COVERAGE THEN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH NEXT DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BRING SCT COVERAGE IN 8-12
KFT RANGE TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHEAST
INITIALLY THEN SWINGING SW AFTER ABOUT 16Z. EXPECT LIGHT WEST TO
CALM OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST NEAR 7-10 KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON INITIAL VSBYS.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  49  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         72  54  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     66  46  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    72  46  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        74  53  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     68  51  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           75  47  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  47  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  72  47  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         77  54  79  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...DEESE
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KFFC 201152
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHILLY START TO THE PERIOD THIS MORNING WITH SOME OF COOLEST TEMPS
STILL EXPECTED...MANY AREAS LOOKING TO DIP INTO THE LOW 40S. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY GET LOWER WITH OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING LACKING ANY CLOUD COVERAGE...EVEN THE CIRRUS FROM BEFORE.
COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTTY AREAS OF FROST IN SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA.

MODELS IN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE NORTH BY 00Z THIS EVENING AND WEAK SFC FRONT
TRAILING BEHIND. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE MOISTURE STARVED AND LACKING
GOOD LIFT SO HAVE KEPT AREA DRY BUT INCREASE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE IN
THE FAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. NEXT SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND ENHANCES THE GRADIENT WINDS FOR TUESDAY. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY CUTS OFF
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES TODAY THRU TUES.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFFSHORE THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH INFLUENCE ALL THE WAY SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA AND THE GULF COAST. AS STRONG UPPER HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GENERALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL/HYBRID
SYSTEMS LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL REMAIN WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY
HAVING BRIEF INITIAL MVFR VSBYS THIS MORNING. POSSIBLE CU FIELD
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINKING JUST FEW COVERAGE THEN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH NEXT DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BRING SCT COVERAGE IN 8-12
KFT RANGE TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHEAST
INITIALLY THEN SWINGING SW AFTER ABOUT 16Z. EXPECT LIGHT WEST TO
CALM OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST NEAR 7-10 KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON INITIAL VSBYS.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  49  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         72  54  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     66  46  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    72  46  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        74  53  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     68  51  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           75  47  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  47  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  72  47  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         77  54  79  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...DEESE
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KFFC 201152
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHILLY START TO THE PERIOD THIS MORNING WITH SOME OF COOLEST TEMPS
STILL EXPECTED...MANY AREAS LOOKING TO DIP INTO THE LOW 40S. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY GET LOWER WITH OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING LACKING ANY CLOUD COVERAGE...EVEN THE CIRRUS FROM BEFORE.
COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTTY AREAS OF FROST IN SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA.

MODELS IN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE NORTH BY 00Z THIS EVENING AND WEAK SFC FRONT
TRAILING BEHIND. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE MOISTURE STARVED AND LACKING
GOOD LIFT SO HAVE KEPT AREA DRY BUT INCREASE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE IN
THE FAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. NEXT SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND ENHANCES THE GRADIENT WINDS FOR TUESDAY. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY CUTS OFF
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES TODAY THRU TUES.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFFSHORE THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH INFLUENCE ALL THE WAY SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA AND THE GULF COAST. AS STRONG UPPER HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GENERALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL/HYBRID
SYSTEMS LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL REMAIN WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY
HAVING BRIEF INITIAL MVFR VSBYS THIS MORNING. POSSIBLE CU FIELD
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINKING JUST FEW COVERAGE THEN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH NEXT DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BRING SCT COVERAGE IN 8-12
KFT RANGE TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHEAST
INITIALLY THEN SWINGING SW AFTER ABOUT 16Z. EXPECT LIGHT WEST TO
CALM OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST NEAR 7-10 KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON INITIAL VSBYS.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  49  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         72  54  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     66  46  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    72  46  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        74  53  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     68  51  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           75  47  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  47  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  72  47  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         77  54  79  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...DEESE
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KFFC 201152
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHILLY START TO THE PERIOD THIS MORNING WITH SOME OF COOLEST TEMPS
STILL EXPECTED...MANY AREAS LOOKING TO DIP INTO THE LOW 40S. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY GET LOWER WITH OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING LACKING ANY CLOUD COVERAGE...EVEN THE CIRRUS FROM BEFORE.
COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTTY AREAS OF FROST IN SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA.

MODELS IN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE NORTH BY 00Z THIS EVENING AND WEAK SFC FRONT
TRAILING BEHIND. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE MOISTURE STARVED AND LACKING
GOOD LIFT SO HAVE KEPT AREA DRY BUT INCREASE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE IN
THE FAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. NEXT SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND ENHANCES THE GRADIENT WINDS FOR TUESDAY. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY CUTS OFF
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES TODAY THRU TUES.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFFSHORE THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH INFLUENCE ALL THE WAY SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA AND THE GULF COAST. AS STRONG UPPER HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GENERALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL/HYBRID
SYSTEMS LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL REMAIN WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY
HAVING BRIEF INITIAL MVFR VSBYS THIS MORNING. POSSIBLE CU FIELD
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINKING JUST FEW COVERAGE THEN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH NEXT DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BRING SCT COVERAGE IN 8-12
KFT RANGE TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHEAST
INITIALLY THEN SWINGING SW AFTER ABOUT 16Z. EXPECT LIGHT WEST TO
CALM OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST NEAR 7-10 KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON INITIAL VSBYS.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  49  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         72  54  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     66  46  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    72  46  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        74  53  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     68  51  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           75  47  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  47  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  72  47  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         77  54  79  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...DEESE
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KCHS 201034
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
634 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE...MAINLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR SKY COVER TRENDS.

WORKING OFF LIMITED MODEL DATA THIS MORNING DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS
OUTAGE AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TELECOMMUNICATIONS GATEWAY.
THANKFULLY...THE WEATHER IS POISED TO REMAIN QUIET AND VERY FALL-
LIKE ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD.

THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE ONSHORE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME FROM SUNDAY/S
READINGS...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S TODAY...
RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL DATA THIS MORNING. THE
NAM SEEMS A BIT BULLISH ON THE VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY LATER THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS POISED TO
MOVE ONSHORE AS AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES INLAND...
EXPECT AT LEAST MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO OCCUR. THE
PROSPECT FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW GIVEN THE MEAGER MEAN RH
VALUES IN PLACE...BUT A LIGHT/BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO MOVING
ONSHORE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. POPS AT THE
COAST WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO 5 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 201034
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
634 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE...MAINLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR SKY COVER TRENDS.

WORKING OFF LIMITED MODEL DATA THIS MORNING DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS
OUTAGE AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TELECOMMUNICATIONS GATEWAY.
THANKFULLY...THE WEATHER IS POISED TO REMAIN QUIET AND VERY FALL-
LIKE ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD.

THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE ONSHORE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME FROM SUNDAY/S
READINGS...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S TODAY...
RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL DATA THIS MORNING. THE
NAM SEEMS A BIT BULLISH ON THE VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY LATER THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS POISED TO
MOVE ONSHORE AS AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES INLAND...
EXPECT AT LEAST MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO OCCUR. THE
PROSPECT FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW GIVEN THE MEAGER MEAN RH
VALUES IN PLACE...BUT A LIGHT/BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO MOVING
ONSHORE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. POPS AT THE
COAST WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO 5 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 201034
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
634 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE...MAINLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR SKY COVER TRENDS.

WORKING OFF LIMITED MODEL DATA THIS MORNING DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS
OUTAGE AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TELECOMMUNICATIONS GATEWAY.
THANKFULLY...THE WEATHER IS POISED TO REMAIN QUIET AND VERY FALL-
LIKE ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD.

THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE ONSHORE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME FROM SUNDAY/S
READINGS...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S TODAY...
RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL DATA THIS MORNING. THE
NAM SEEMS A BIT BULLISH ON THE VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY LATER THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS POISED TO
MOVE ONSHORE AS AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES INLAND...
EXPECT AT LEAST MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO OCCUR. THE
PROSPECT FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW GIVEN THE MEAGER MEAN RH
VALUES IN PLACE...BUT A LIGHT/BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO MOVING
ONSHORE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. POPS AT THE
COAST WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO 5 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 201034
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
634 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE...MAINLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR SKY COVER TRENDS.

WORKING OFF LIMITED MODEL DATA THIS MORNING DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS
OUTAGE AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TELECOMMUNICATIONS GATEWAY.
THANKFULLY...THE WEATHER IS POISED TO REMAIN QUIET AND VERY FALL-
LIKE ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD.

THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE ONSHORE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME FROM SUNDAY/S
READINGS...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S TODAY...
RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL DATA THIS MORNING. THE
NAM SEEMS A BIT BULLISH ON THE VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY LATER THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS POISED TO
MOVE ONSHORE AS AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES INLAND...
EXPECT AT LEAST MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO OCCUR. THE
PROSPECT FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW GIVEN THE MEAGER MEAN RH
VALUES IN PLACE...BUT A LIGHT/BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO MOVING
ONSHORE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. POPS AT THE
COAST WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO 5 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 200801
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
401 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WORKING OFF LIMITED MODEL DATA THIS MORNING DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS
OUTAGE AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TELECOMMUNICATIONS GATEWAY.
THANKFULLY...THE WEATHER IS POISED TO REMAIN QUIET AND VERY FALL-
LIKE ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD.

THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE ONSHORE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME FROM SUNDAY/S
READINGS...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S TODAY...
RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL DATA THIS MORNING. THE
NAM SEEMS A BIT BULLISH ON THE VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY LATER THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS POISED TO
MOVE ONSHORE AS AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES INLAND...
EXPECT AT LEAST MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO OCCUR. THE
PROSPECT FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW GIVEN THE MEAGER MEAN RH
VALUES IN PLACE...BUT A LIGHT/BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO MOVING
ONSHORE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. POPS AT THE
COAST WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO 5 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV/KCHS EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES ONSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW END RISK OF MVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/RFM





000
FXUS62 KCHS 200801
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
401 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WORKING OFF LIMITED MODEL DATA THIS MORNING DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS
OUTAGE AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TELECOMMUNICATIONS GATEWAY.
THANKFULLY...THE WEATHER IS POISED TO REMAIN QUIET AND VERY FALL-
LIKE ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD.

THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE ONSHORE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME FROM SUNDAY/S
READINGS...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S TODAY...
RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL DATA THIS MORNING. THE
NAM SEEMS A BIT BULLISH ON THE VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY LATER THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS POISED TO
MOVE ONSHORE AS AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES INLAND...
EXPECT AT LEAST MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO OCCUR. THE
PROSPECT FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW GIVEN THE MEAGER MEAN RH
VALUES IN PLACE...BUT A LIGHT/BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO MOVING
ONSHORE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. POPS AT THE
COAST WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO 5 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV/KCHS EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES ONSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW END RISK OF MVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/RFM





000
FXUS62 KCHS 200801
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
401 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WORKING OFF LIMITED MODEL DATA THIS MORNING DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS
OUTAGE AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TELECOMMUNICATIONS GATEWAY.
THANKFULLY...THE WEATHER IS POISED TO REMAIN QUIET AND VERY FALL-
LIKE ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD.

THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE ONSHORE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME FROM SUNDAY/S
READINGS...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S TODAY...
RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL DATA THIS MORNING. THE
NAM SEEMS A BIT BULLISH ON THE VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY LATER THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS POISED TO
MOVE ONSHORE AS AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES INLAND...
EXPECT AT LEAST MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO OCCUR. THE
PROSPECT FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW GIVEN THE MEAGER MEAN RH
VALUES IN PLACE...BUT A LIGHT/BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO MOVING
ONSHORE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. POPS AT THE
COAST WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO 5 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV/KCHS EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES ONSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW END RISK OF MVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/RFM




000
FXUS62 KCHS 200801
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
401 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WORKING OFF LIMITED MODEL DATA THIS MORNING DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS
OUTAGE AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TELECOMMUNICATIONS GATEWAY.
THANKFULLY...THE WEATHER IS POISED TO REMAIN QUIET AND VERY FALL-
LIKE ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD.

THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE ONSHORE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME FROM SUNDAY/S
READINGS...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S TODAY...
RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL DATA THIS MORNING. THE
NAM SEEMS A BIT BULLISH ON THE VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY LATER THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS POISED TO
MOVE ONSHORE AS AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES INLAND...
EXPECT AT LEAST MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO OCCUR. THE
PROSPECT FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW GIVEN THE MEAGER MEAN RH
VALUES IN PLACE...BUT A LIGHT/BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO MOVING
ONSHORE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. POPS AT THE
COAST WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO 5 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV/KCHS EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES ONSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW END RISK OF MVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/RFM




000
FXUS62 KCHS 200801
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
401 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WORKING OFF LIMITED MODEL DATA THIS MORNING DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS
OUTAGE AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TELECOMMUNICATIONS GATEWAY.
THANKFULLY...THE WEATHER IS POISED TO REMAIN QUIET AND VERY FALL-
LIKE ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD.

THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE ONSHORE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME FROM SUNDAY/S
READINGS...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S TODAY...
RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL DATA THIS MORNING. THE
NAM SEEMS A BIT BULLISH ON THE VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY LATER THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS POISED TO
MOVE ONSHORE AS AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES INLAND...
EXPECT AT LEAST MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO OCCUR. THE
PROSPECT FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW GIVEN THE MEAGER MEAN RH
VALUES IN PLACE...BUT A LIGHT/BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO MOVING
ONSHORE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. POPS AT THE
COAST WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO 5 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV/KCHS EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES ONSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW END RISK OF MVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/RFM




000
FXUS62 KCHS 200801
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
401 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WORKING OFF LIMITED MODEL DATA THIS MORNING DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS
OUTAGE AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TELECOMMUNICATIONS GATEWAY.
THANKFULLY...THE WEATHER IS POISED TO REMAIN QUIET AND VERY FALL-
LIKE ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD.

THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE ONSHORE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME FROM SUNDAY/S
READINGS...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S TODAY...
RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL DATA THIS MORNING. THE
NAM SEEMS A BIT BULLISH ON THE VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY LATER THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS POISED TO
MOVE ONSHORE AS AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES INLAND...
EXPECT AT LEAST MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO OCCUR. THE
PROSPECT FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW GIVEN THE MEAGER MEAN RH
VALUES IN PLACE...BUT A LIGHT/BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO MOVING
ONSHORE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. POPS AT THE
COAST WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO 5 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV/KCHS EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES ONSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW END RISK OF MVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/RFM




000
FXUS62 KFFC 200754
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHILLY START TO THE PERIOD THIS MORNING WITH SOME OF COOLEST TEMPS
STILL EXPECTED...MANY AREAS LOOKING TO DIP INTO THE LOW 40S. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY GET LOWER WITH OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING LACKING ANY CLOUD COVERAGE...EVEN THE CIRRUS FROM BEFORE.
COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTTY AREAS OF FROST IN SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA.

MODELS IN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE NORTH BY 00Z THIS EVENING AND WEAK SFC FRONT
TRAILING BEHIND. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE MOISTURE STARVED AND LACKING
GOOD LIFT SO HAVE KEPT AREA DRY BUT INCREASE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE IN
THE FAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. NEXT SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND ENHANCES THE GRADIENT WINDS FOR TUESDAY. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY CUTS OFF
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES TODAY THRU TUES.

BAKER

&&


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFFSHORE THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH INFLUENCE ALL THE WAY SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA AND THE GULF COAST. AS STRONG UPPER HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GENERALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL/HYBRID
SYSTEMS LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL REMAIN WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.


DEESE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD THOUGH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING IN 09-13Z TIME FRAME. POSSIBLE CU FIELD THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THINKING JUST FEW COVERAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
NEXT DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BRING SCT COVERAGE IN 8-12 KFT RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM BECOMING LIGHT
SW TODAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MORNING MVFR VSBYS.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  49  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         72  54  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     66  46  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    72  46  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        74  53  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     68  51  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           75  47  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  47  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  72  47  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         77  54  79  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS62 KFFC 200754
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHILLY START TO THE PERIOD THIS MORNING WITH SOME OF COOLEST TEMPS
STILL EXPECTED...MANY AREAS LOOKING TO DIP INTO THE LOW 40S. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY GET LOWER WITH OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING LACKING ANY CLOUD COVERAGE...EVEN THE CIRRUS FROM BEFORE.
COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTTY AREAS OF FROST IN SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA.

MODELS IN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE NORTH BY 00Z THIS EVENING AND WEAK SFC FRONT
TRAILING BEHIND. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE MOISTURE STARVED AND LACKING
GOOD LIFT SO HAVE KEPT AREA DRY BUT INCREASE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE IN
THE FAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. NEXT SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND ENHANCES THE GRADIENT WINDS FOR TUESDAY. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY CUTS OFF
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES TODAY THRU TUES.

BAKER

&&


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OFFSHORE THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH INFLUENCE ALL THE WAY SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA AND THE GULF COAST. AS STRONG UPPER HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GENERALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL/HYBRID
SYSTEMS LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL REMAIN WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.


DEESE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD THOUGH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING IN 09-13Z TIME FRAME. POSSIBLE CU FIELD THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THINKING JUST FEW COVERAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
NEXT DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BRING SCT COVERAGE IN 8-12 KFT RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM BECOMING LIGHT
SW TODAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MORNING MVFR VSBYS.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  49  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         72  54  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     66  46  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    72  46  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        74  53  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     68  51  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           75  47  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  47  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  72  47  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         77  54  79  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KFFC 200618
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
218 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT WITH CLEAR OR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREDOMINATING. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 3-9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE DRY AND UNEVENTFUL. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS RETURN LATE MONDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...BUT WITH A
DRY FROPA ANTICIPATED...DO NOT ADVERTISE ANY POPS.

EXPECT SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WITH MANY AREAS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
TONIGHT. INFLUENCE OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP THINGS A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT...LIMITING RADIATION. FOR NOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE
MENTION OF FROST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT VERY ISOLATED NORTH
GEORGIA AREAS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN NORTH GEORGIA. SHOULD SEE
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

31

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.

MODELS ARE PROGGING SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. VALUES COULD REACH THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S IN
THE NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. SINCE THIS IS DAY 5...TEMPS
COULD CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODELS RUNS. HOWEVER...DO FEEL A
MENTION IN THE HWO WOULD BE HELPFUL TO AG INTERESTS.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD THOUGH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING IN 09-13Z TIME FRAME. POSSIBLE CU FIELD THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THINKING JUST FEW COVERAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
NEXT DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BRING SCT COVERAGE IN 8-12 KFT RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM BECOMING LIGHT
SW TODAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MORNING MVFR VSBYS.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  50  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         71  52  73  50 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     66  46  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    72  47  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        75  53  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     68  50  69  48 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           76  51  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  47  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  72  48  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         77  56  78  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31/BDL
LONG TERM...DEESE/NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS62 KFFC 200618
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
218 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT WITH CLEAR OR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREDOMINATING. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 3-9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE DRY AND UNEVENTFUL. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS RETURN LATE MONDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...BUT WITH A
DRY FROPA ANTICIPATED...DO NOT ADVERTISE ANY POPS.

EXPECT SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WITH MANY AREAS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
TONIGHT. INFLUENCE OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP THINGS A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT...LIMITING RADIATION. FOR NOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE
MENTION OF FROST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT VERY ISOLATED NORTH
GEORGIA AREAS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN NORTH GEORGIA. SHOULD SEE
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

31

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.

MODELS ARE PROGGING SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. VALUES COULD REACH THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S IN
THE NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. SINCE THIS IS DAY 5...TEMPS
COULD CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODELS RUNS. HOWEVER...DO FEEL A
MENTION IN THE HWO WOULD BE HELPFUL TO AG INTERESTS.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD THOUGH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING IN 09-13Z TIME FRAME. POSSIBLE CU FIELD THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THINKING JUST FEW COVERAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
NEXT DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BRING SCT COVERAGE IN 8-12 KFT RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM BECOMING LIGHT
SW TODAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MORNING MVFR VSBYS.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  50  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         71  52  73  50 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     66  46  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    72  47  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        75  53  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     68  50  69  48 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           76  51  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  47  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  72  48  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         77  56  78  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31/BDL
LONG TERM...DEESE/NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS62 KFFC 200618
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
218 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT WITH CLEAR OR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREDOMINATING. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 3-9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE DRY AND UNEVENTFUL. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS RETURN LATE MONDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...BUT WITH A
DRY FROPA ANTICIPATED...DO NOT ADVERTISE ANY POPS.

EXPECT SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WITH MANY AREAS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
TONIGHT. INFLUENCE OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP THINGS A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT...LIMITING RADIATION. FOR NOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE
MENTION OF FROST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT VERY ISOLATED NORTH
GEORGIA AREAS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN NORTH GEORGIA. SHOULD SEE
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

31

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.

MODELS ARE PROGGING SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. VALUES COULD REACH THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S IN
THE NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. SINCE THIS IS DAY 5...TEMPS
COULD CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODELS RUNS. HOWEVER...DO FEEL A
MENTION IN THE HWO WOULD BE HELPFUL TO AG INTERESTS.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD THOUGH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING IN 09-13Z TIME FRAME. POSSIBLE CU FIELD THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THINKING JUST FEW COVERAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
NEXT DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BRING SCT COVERAGE IN 8-12 KFT RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM BECOMING LIGHT
SW TODAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MORNING MVFR VSBYS.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  50  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         71  52  73  50 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     66  46  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    72  47  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        75  53  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     68  50  69  48 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           76  51  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  47  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  72  48  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         77  56  78  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31/BDL
LONG TERM...DEESE/NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS62 KFFC 200618
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
218 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT WITH CLEAR OR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREDOMINATING. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 3-9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE DRY AND UNEVENTFUL. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS RETURN LATE MONDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...BUT WITH A
DRY FROPA ANTICIPATED...DO NOT ADVERTISE ANY POPS.

EXPECT SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WITH MANY AREAS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
TONIGHT. INFLUENCE OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP THINGS A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT...LIMITING RADIATION. FOR NOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE
MENTION OF FROST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT VERY ISOLATED NORTH
GEORGIA AREAS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN NORTH GEORGIA. SHOULD SEE
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

31

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.

MODELS ARE PROGGING SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. VALUES COULD REACH THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S IN
THE NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. SINCE THIS IS DAY 5...TEMPS
COULD CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODELS RUNS. HOWEVER...DO FEEL A
MENTION IN THE HWO WOULD BE HELPFUL TO AG INTERESTS.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD THOUGH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING IN 09-13Z TIME FRAME. POSSIBLE CU FIELD THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THINKING JUST FEW COVERAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
NEXT DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BRING SCT COVERAGE IN 8-12 KFT RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM BECOMING LIGHT
SW TODAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MORNING MVFR VSBYS.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  50  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         71  52  73  50 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     66  46  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    72  47  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        75  53  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     68  50  69  48 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           76  51  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  47  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  72  48  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         77  56  78  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31/BDL
LONG TERM...DEESE/NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS62 KCAE 200604
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
204 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATER TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT TO
OUR EAST LATER TODAY. AFTER A COOL START...SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REBOUND TO NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TUE/TUE NT. WITH A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR
REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FORECAST DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SCATTERED CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOME
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING COMBINED WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SATELLITE TRENDS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AND BY AFTERNOON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW
CU MAY DEVELOP WITH PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT SHOULD
BE THE EXTENT OF ANY CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLEAR AND
CALM MONDAY EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 200604
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
204 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATER TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT TO
OUR EAST LATER TODAY. AFTER A COOL START...SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REBOUND TO NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TUE/TUE NT. WITH A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR
REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FORECAST DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SCATTERED CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOME
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING COMBINED WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SATELLITE TRENDS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AND BY AFTERNOON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW
CU MAY DEVELOP WITH PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT SHOULD
BE THE EXTENT OF ANY CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLEAR AND
CALM MONDAY EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 200509
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
109 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
JUST THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR.
THE MAV AND MET MOS HAVE LOWS NEAR 40. THE IN-HOUSE RADIATION
SCHEME INDICATES SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THIS GUIDANCE
APPEARS ON TRACK BASED ON TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS DURING
THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY WILL
SLIDE OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON. A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...THOUGH WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A DEEP CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL AMPLIFICATION
OCCURS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE IMPACT GIVEN A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
COUNTER WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH 75 TO 80 TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN UNDER SUNNY SKIES AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. COOL
AND DRY AIR WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NO
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SCATTERED CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOME
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING COMBINED WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SATELLITE TRENDS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AND BY AFTERNOON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW
CU MAY DEVELOP WITH PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT SHOULD
BE THE EXTENT OF ANY CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLEAR AND
CALM MONDAY EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 200509
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
109 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
JUST THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR.
THE MAV AND MET MOS HAVE LOWS NEAR 40. THE IN-HOUSE RADIATION
SCHEME INDICATES SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THIS GUIDANCE
APPEARS ON TRACK BASED ON TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS DURING
THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY WILL
SLIDE OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON. A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...THOUGH WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A DEEP CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL AMPLIFICATION
OCCURS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE IMPACT GIVEN A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
COUNTER WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH 75 TO 80 TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN UNDER SUNNY SKIES AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. COOL
AND DRY AIR WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NO
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SCATTERED CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOME
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING COMBINED WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SATELLITE TRENDS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AND BY AFTERNOON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW
CU MAY DEVELOP WITH PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT SHOULD
BE THE EXTENT OF ANY CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLEAR AND
CALM MONDAY EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 200441
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1241 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL SHIFT INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.
STRATOCUMULUS IS INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WERE WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASSENT IS BEGINNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL MAKE A RUN FOR
THE COAST THROUGH SUNRISE...LIKELY SPREADING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
COASTAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
INLAND...BUT ITS FORMATION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS AND UPDATE IF NECESSARY TO INCLUDE MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A PROGRESSIVE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL ALOFT AS A DEEPENING TROUGH DROPS EAST AND SE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS PROMINENT FEATURE WILL SEND A
POLAR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY AND THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENN VALLEYS AT NIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN NC AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL BE FORCED INTO THE ATLANTIC IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. AN ILL-DEFINED
INVERTED TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEARBY COASTAL
WATERS...BUT STAYS OFFSHORE AND EVENTUALLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY. WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ABOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH AND SOME RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE RIDGE WILL GENERATE AN NOTED INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS
AND CUMULUS CLOUDINESS. WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS EITHER DEVELOPING OR ADVECTING ASHORE...PROBABILITIES HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO A SILENT 10 PERCENT SINCE THERE IS STILL A DECENT
SUBSIDENCE CAP THAT HOLDS IN PLACE AROUND 850 MB. WARM ADVECTION
WILL HELP IN NEGATING THE GREATER CLOUD COVER...AND AFTER A
COOL/CHILLY START TO THE DAY WILL BOOST MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 70S. MIGHT EVEN HIT 80 NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IF
INSOLATION IS IN GREATER SUPPLY THAN NOW FORECAST. THE BEACHES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW TO OCCUR. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE SOME 6-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT WITH
INSULATING EFFECTS OF MORE CLOUDS AND A MODIFIED AIR MASS. MIGHT SEE
A LITTLE GROUND FOG LATE...BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WELL PRONOUNCED TROUGH IN THE NE
WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT DROPS SE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
DELMARVA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SENDS A MODERATING POLAR
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE TUESDAY...BEFORE IT PUSHES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. WEST AND NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
TROPOSPHERE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
NEAR OR ABOVE 80 JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...BEFORE A RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE MIGHT FORM ALONG THE BARRIER ISLAND COMMUNITIES. THE BEST
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...AND THAT
ALONG WITH THE LACK OF FORCING SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH DRY BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z AND 04Z WEDNESDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL
USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND WE/LL SEE A
SWING IN TEMPS OF AS MUCH AS 25-30 DEGREES COLDER BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING FROM WHAT DAY TIME HIGHS WERE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW SPINS OFF THE DELMARVA TO THE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND...PULLING BEHIND IT RISING PRESSURES FROM OUT OF
SOUTHERN AND SE CANADA THAT HEADS INTO THE SOUTHERN AND SE UNITED
STATES. DOWNWARD MOTION AND A DEEP WEST/NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA
VOID OF ANY RAIN...WITH AT MOST A LITTLE DEVELOPING FLAT CUMULUS
AND/OR COOL WEATHER STRATOCUMULUS WITH CROSS-SECTIONS SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 4-5K FT. 850 HPA TEMPS ARE AS COOL AS 6C
NORTH TO 9C SOUTH...WHICH WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM ACHIEVING MUCH
HIGHER THAN 70 FAR NORTH TO 75 FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
A SHALLOW DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
PROVIDE GENERALLY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN A GRADUAL MODERATION
TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY AROUND FRIDAY AS MODELS DIFFER IN
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH EVOLUTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED LOW OVER
NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS KEEPS A MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
THAT MOVES INTO THE SE U.S. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
DROPS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE GFS KICKS A STRONG
SURFACE LOW /LIKELY TROPICAL IN NATURE/ OUT OF THE YUCATAN REGION
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN FL EARLY SATURDAY...THEN WELL OFFSHORE
OF OUR COAST SUNDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS A WEAK/BROAD SURFACE LOW IN THE
GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE
DIFFERENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM WPC IS FOR A SCENARIO
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...OR CLOSE TO WHAT THE UKMET
SUGGESTS. FOR NOW THIS KEEPS PRECIP/MOISTURE OUT OF OUR REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...KEPT MENTION OF ANY PRECIP OUT OF THIS
FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV/KCHS EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES ONSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW END RISK OF MVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO WINDS
MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE ORIENTATION
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ON THE DEVELOPMENT/POSITION OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. VARIABLE/OFFSHORE WINDS OVER SC WATERS AND NE
WINDS OVER GA WATERS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MORE UNIFORM E/NE FLOW
OVER ALL WATERS...BUT GIVEN THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIND DIRECTION REMAINS LESS THAN IDEAL. SEAS
WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT...DOMINATED BY A 12-14 SECOND PERIOD
SWELL FROM THE E/NE AND HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OUTER
BANKS OF NC EARLY IN THE FORECAST CYCLE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ORGANIZING UPSTREAM THAT
SWEEPS EAST/SE AND APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC A
VERY SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH WILL FORM IN OR NEAR THE LOCAL WATERS BY
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS IT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH AND NE. NE
AND EAST WINDS EARLY MONDAY WILL VEER AROUND TO EAST AND SE THROUGH
THE DAY...CLOCKING AROUND TO THE WEST AND NW BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
SPEEDS WILL HOLD NEAR OR BELOW 10 KT...WITH SEAS AT NO HIGHER THAN 2
OR 3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LIGHT WEST OR SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OUT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY...BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERLY SURGE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH COLD
ADVECTION...SMALL BUT STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES AND BETTER
MIXING PROFILES. WITH GEOSTROPHIC WINDS AT 1000 MB /OR WHAT IS
CONSIDERED A SOMEWHAT FRICTIONLESS LAYER SIMILAR TO THE OCEAN
SURFACE/ NO MORE THAN 20 OR 25 KT WE FEEL THAT CONDITIONS WILL STAY
JUST BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
STAY BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS...ANY SLIGHT DEVIATION FROM THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
MONDAY MIGHT BUMP US INTO THE MODERATE RANGE OF RIP CURRENTS. FOR
NOW WE/LL RIDE WITH A LOW RISK SINCE WE/RE NOT SURE ON HOW MUCH
SWELL ENERGY WILL REMAIN.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 200441
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1241 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL SHIFT INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.
STRATOCUMULUS IS INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WERE WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASSENT IS BEGINNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL MAKE A RUN FOR
THE COAST THROUGH SUNRISE...LIKELY SPREADING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
COASTAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
INLAND...BUT ITS FORMATION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS AND UPDATE IF NECESSARY TO INCLUDE MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A PROGRESSIVE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL ALOFT AS A DEEPENING TROUGH DROPS EAST AND SE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS PROMINENT FEATURE WILL SEND A
POLAR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY AND THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENN VALLEYS AT NIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN NC AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL BE FORCED INTO THE ATLANTIC IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. AN ILL-DEFINED
INVERTED TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEARBY COASTAL
WATERS...BUT STAYS OFFSHORE AND EVENTUALLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY. WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ABOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH AND SOME RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE RIDGE WILL GENERATE AN NOTED INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS
AND CUMULUS CLOUDINESS. WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS EITHER DEVELOPING OR ADVECTING ASHORE...PROBABILITIES HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO A SILENT 10 PERCENT SINCE THERE IS STILL A DECENT
SUBSIDENCE CAP THAT HOLDS IN PLACE AROUND 850 MB. WARM ADVECTION
WILL HELP IN NEGATING THE GREATER CLOUD COVER...AND AFTER A
COOL/CHILLY START TO THE DAY WILL BOOST MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 70S. MIGHT EVEN HIT 80 NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IF
INSOLATION IS IN GREATER SUPPLY THAN NOW FORECAST. THE BEACHES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW TO OCCUR. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE SOME 6-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT WITH
INSULATING EFFECTS OF MORE CLOUDS AND A MODIFIED AIR MASS. MIGHT SEE
A LITTLE GROUND FOG LATE...BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WELL PRONOUNCED TROUGH IN THE NE
WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT DROPS SE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
DELMARVA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SENDS A MODERATING POLAR
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE TUESDAY...BEFORE IT PUSHES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. WEST AND NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
TROPOSPHERE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
NEAR OR ABOVE 80 JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...BEFORE A RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE MIGHT FORM ALONG THE BARRIER ISLAND COMMUNITIES. THE BEST
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...AND THAT
ALONG WITH THE LACK OF FORCING SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH DRY BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z AND 04Z WEDNESDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL
USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND WE/LL SEE A
SWING IN TEMPS OF AS MUCH AS 25-30 DEGREES COLDER BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING FROM WHAT DAY TIME HIGHS WERE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW SPINS OFF THE DELMARVA TO THE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND...PULLING BEHIND IT RISING PRESSURES FROM OUT OF
SOUTHERN AND SE CANADA THAT HEADS INTO THE SOUTHERN AND SE UNITED
STATES. DOWNWARD MOTION AND A DEEP WEST/NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA
VOID OF ANY RAIN...WITH AT MOST A LITTLE DEVELOPING FLAT CUMULUS
AND/OR COOL WEATHER STRATOCUMULUS WITH CROSS-SECTIONS SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 4-5K FT. 850 HPA TEMPS ARE AS COOL AS 6C
NORTH TO 9C SOUTH...WHICH WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM ACHIEVING MUCH
HIGHER THAN 70 FAR NORTH TO 75 FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
A SHALLOW DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
PROVIDE GENERALLY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN A GRADUAL MODERATION
TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY AROUND FRIDAY AS MODELS DIFFER IN
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH EVOLUTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED LOW OVER
NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS KEEPS A MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
THAT MOVES INTO THE SE U.S. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
DROPS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE GFS KICKS A STRONG
SURFACE LOW /LIKELY TROPICAL IN NATURE/ OUT OF THE YUCATAN REGION
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN FL EARLY SATURDAY...THEN WELL OFFSHORE
OF OUR COAST SUNDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS A WEAK/BROAD SURFACE LOW IN THE
GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE
DIFFERENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM WPC IS FOR A SCENARIO
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...OR CLOSE TO WHAT THE UKMET
SUGGESTS. FOR NOW THIS KEEPS PRECIP/MOISTURE OUT OF OUR REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...KEPT MENTION OF ANY PRECIP OUT OF THIS
FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV/KCHS EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES ONSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW END RISK OF MVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO WINDS
MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE ORIENTATION
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ON THE DEVELOPMENT/POSITION OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. VARIABLE/OFFSHORE WINDS OVER SC WATERS AND NE
WINDS OVER GA WATERS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MORE UNIFORM E/NE FLOW
OVER ALL WATERS...BUT GIVEN THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIND DIRECTION REMAINS LESS THAN IDEAL. SEAS
WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT...DOMINATED BY A 12-14 SECOND PERIOD
SWELL FROM THE E/NE AND HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OUTER
BANKS OF NC EARLY IN THE FORECAST CYCLE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ORGANIZING UPSTREAM THAT
SWEEPS EAST/SE AND APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC A
VERY SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH WILL FORM IN OR NEAR THE LOCAL WATERS BY
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS IT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH AND NE. NE
AND EAST WINDS EARLY MONDAY WILL VEER AROUND TO EAST AND SE THROUGH
THE DAY...CLOCKING AROUND TO THE WEST AND NW BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
SPEEDS WILL HOLD NEAR OR BELOW 10 KT...WITH SEAS AT NO HIGHER THAN 2
OR 3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LIGHT WEST OR SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OUT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY...BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERLY SURGE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH COLD
ADVECTION...SMALL BUT STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES AND BETTER
MIXING PROFILES. WITH GEOSTROPHIC WINDS AT 1000 MB /OR WHAT IS
CONSIDERED A SOMEWHAT FRICTIONLESS LAYER SIMILAR TO THE OCEAN
SURFACE/ NO MORE THAN 20 OR 25 KT WE FEEL THAT CONDITIONS WILL STAY
JUST BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
STAY BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS...ANY SLIGHT DEVIATION FROM THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
MONDAY MIGHT BUMP US INTO THE MODERATE RANGE OF RIP CURRENTS. FOR
NOW WE/LL RIDE WITH A LOW RISK SINCE WE/RE NOT SURE ON HOW MUCH
SWELL ENERGY WILL REMAIN.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




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