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000
FXUS62 KCHS 301400
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1000 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

I MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

TO START...I REFINED THE POPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE
QUICKER TIMING OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING IN FRO THE NORTHWEST. MODELS ACROSS THE BOARD INDICATE THE
LINE WILL BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS THE DAYS WEARS ON...AND THAT
SEEMS REASONABLE. THEREFORE...I HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG OUR
NORTHERN BORDER WHERE LIKELY SEEMS PRUDENT BASED ON THE RADAR
DEPICTION...BUT THE CHANCES WILL DECREASE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE CWA
AS UPPER SUPPORT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WANES. IN
ADDITION...TOTAL LIGHTNING IS SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
ACTIVITY OVER THE MIDLANDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SO THE
CHANCES OF THUNDER SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING AS WELL...AT LEAST FOR
MOST OF OUR SC COUNTIES. STILL...I CANT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...SO I HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
NOW.

ANOTHER CHANGE I MADE WAS TO RAISE TEMPS A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SURFACE OBS AT 13Z WERE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST...SO I ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THE INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD STILL SLOW DOWN THE TEMP RISES...BUT I
DID RAISE MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO.

THE WIND FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. GUSTY PERIODS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE SIGNIFICANT MIXING TAKES
PLACE. THE CURRENT FORECAST MIGHT BE A BIT HIGH FOR INLAND
AREA...BUT WE WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.


TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH/SE OF THE AREA EARLY
ON..AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
REGION WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE
NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGINS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AND ALTHOUGH IT ARRIVE WITH SOME COOLER
AIR IT WON/T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE WARMER BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUS...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH WESTERLY 925-850 MB
WINDS...TURNING SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ISOLATED
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 80F CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...THIS FORECAST
MAINTAINS A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
FAR INLAND/SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS AS HIGH
AS 1.25 INCH AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK VORT EMBEDDED WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MODEL QPF...MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOST/ALL AREAS COULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
COULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER....STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
ALSO OF NOTE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD POOL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PROSPECTS TO A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE NO MOISTURE RETURN AND NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD EVEN WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN REDUCED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TRENDED FORECASTS TOWARD A DRIER
SCENARIO...LIMITING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
THURSDAY. IN TURN...REDUCED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80F MOST AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A WARM
AND RAIN-FREE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT TIMING DIFFERENCES
OFFERED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TRANSLATE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POPS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY. A
FASTER FROPA WILL SUPPORT LOWER POPS...A GREATLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND A COOLING TREND STARTING SATURDAY. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BUT ADJUSTMENTS
COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED T-STORMS FROM ROUGHLY 16-19Z NEAR CHS AND 17-21Z NEAR
SAV. SHOULD ANY OF THESE IMPACT THE TERMINALS THERE COULD BE
WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KT AND MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB- VFR
WEATHER. WILL KEEP WATCHING.

OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE TIME WHEN THE AXIS OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN SYNC WITH PEAK HEATING.
THIS WILL GENERATE SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT TO OCCUR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...NO CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL NUDGE SUB- TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SE...AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR SC WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. WARM
ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL
JET SHIFTING INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INTERACTION OF THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF AMZ350 TO ALLOW FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO REACH
NEAR OR PAST 25 KT...WITH EVEN SOME 6 FOOT SEAS. FOR THESE REASONS
WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE 2 BODIES OF WATERS
BEGINNING AT 11 AM. THE OTHER WATERS WILL PEAK AT 15 OR 20 KT...SO
NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT
AFTERNOON T-STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GEORGIA WATERS EARLY ON...TAKING
WITH IT LINGERING CONVECTION AND REPLACED BY AN ANEMIC REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ONLY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AT BEST...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF SURGE OF SUB-SCA NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS SC WATERS TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ALL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE LAYER STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SURGE
OF SCA GUSTS AROUND 25 KT/SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT COULD OCCUR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A WEAKER GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO SUB-SCA WINDS
VEERING FROM E/SE TO S/SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT
MARGINAL SCA WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MARINE LAYER
STABILITY COULD AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER COLD FROPA
SATURDAY...EXPECT A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS APPEARS RATHER HIGH THIS WEEKEND.

ALSO OF NOTE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330-
     350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FWA
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 301400
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1000 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

I MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

TO START...I REFINED THE POPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE
QUICKER TIMING OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING IN FRO THE NORTHWEST. MODELS ACROSS THE BOARD INDICATE THE
LINE WILL BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS THE DAYS WEARS ON...AND THAT
SEEMS REASONABLE. THEREFORE...I HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG OUR
NORTHERN BORDER WHERE LIKELY SEEMS PRUDENT BASED ON THE RADAR
DEPICTION...BUT THE CHANCES WILL DECREASE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE CWA
AS UPPER SUPPORT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WANES. IN
ADDITION...TOTAL LIGHTNING IS SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
ACTIVITY OVER THE MIDLANDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SO THE
CHANCES OF THUNDER SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING AS WELL...AT LEAST FOR
MOST OF OUR SC COUNTIES. STILL...I CANT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...SO I HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
NOW.

ANOTHER CHANGE I MADE WAS TO RAISE TEMPS A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SURFACE OBS AT 13Z WERE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST...SO I ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THE INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD STILL SLOW DOWN THE TEMP RISES...BUT I
DID RAISE MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO.

THE WIND FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. GUSTY PERIODS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE SIGNIFICANT MIXING TAKES
PLACE. THE CURRENT FORECAST MIGHT BE A BIT HIGH FOR INLAND
AREA...BUT WE WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.


TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH/SE OF THE AREA EARLY
ON..AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
REGION WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE
NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGINS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AND ALTHOUGH IT ARRIVE WITH SOME COOLER
AIR IT WON/T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE WARMER BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUS...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH WESTERLY 925-850 MB
WINDS...TURNING SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ISOLATED
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 80F CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...THIS FORECAST
MAINTAINS A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
FAR INLAND/SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS AS HIGH
AS 1.25 INCH AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK VORT EMBEDDED WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MODEL QPF...MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOST/ALL AREAS COULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
COULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER....STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
ALSO OF NOTE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD POOL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PROSPECTS TO A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE NO MOISTURE RETURN AND NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD EVEN WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN REDUCED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TRENDED FORECASTS TOWARD A DRIER
SCENARIO...LIMITING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
THURSDAY. IN TURN...REDUCED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80F MOST AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A WARM
AND RAIN-FREE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT TIMING DIFFERENCES
OFFERED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TRANSLATE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POPS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY. A
FASTER FROPA WILL SUPPORT LOWER POPS...A GREATLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND A COOLING TREND STARTING SATURDAY. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BUT ADJUSTMENTS
COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED T-STORMS FROM ROUGHLY 16-19Z NEAR CHS AND 17-21Z NEAR
SAV. SHOULD ANY OF THESE IMPACT THE TERMINALS THERE COULD BE
WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KT AND MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB- VFR
WEATHER. WILL KEEP WATCHING.

OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE TIME WHEN THE AXIS OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN SYNC WITH PEAK HEATING.
THIS WILL GENERATE SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT TO OCCUR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...NO CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL NUDGE SUB- TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SE...AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR SC WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. WARM
ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL
JET SHIFTING INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INTERACTION OF THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF AMZ350 TO ALLOW FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO REACH
NEAR OR PAST 25 KT...WITH EVEN SOME 6 FOOT SEAS. FOR THESE REASONS
WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE 2 BODIES OF WATERS
BEGINNING AT 11 AM. THE OTHER WATERS WILL PEAK AT 15 OR 20 KT...SO
NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT
AFTERNOON T-STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GEORGIA WATERS EARLY ON...TAKING
WITH IT LINGERING CONVECTION AND REPLACED BY AN ANEMIC REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ONLY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AT BEST...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF SURGE OF SUB-SCA NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS SC WATERS TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ALL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE LAYER STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SURGE
OF SCA GUSTS AROUND 25 KT/SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT COULD OCCUR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A WEAKER GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO SUB-SCA WINDS
VEERING FROM E/SE TO S/SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT
MARGINAL SCA WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MARINE LAYER
STABILITY COULD AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER COLD FROPA
SATURDAY...EXPECT A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS APPEARS RATHER HIGH THIS WEEKEND.

ALSO OF NOTE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330-
     350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FWA
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCAE 301137
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
737 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL OCCUR MAINLY THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF AN H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY EARLY TODAY.
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SHOWERS IN THE WEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND IN THE EAST PART LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE LESS
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
INTO THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM. THESE TRENDS PLUS THE DIURNAL TIMING FAVORS
SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON A RELATIVELY WARM START AND EXPECTED
AFTERNOON SUN WITH A WESTERLY AND SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY A PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE HAVE POPS 20
PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF DISPLAYS
THIS MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH. KEPT JUST A SMALL POP IN THE SOUTH PART WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST SHOULD CIRCULATE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS
MOISTURE PLUS ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS
INDICATED GREATER MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LESS
OF A SHOWER CHANCE.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCE MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO HELP CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE INDICATING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
DRYING SATURDAY. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH A DRY PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY COVERING MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. 88D REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z
AND 14Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA WITH
A TEMPO FOR TSRA ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 12Z THROUGH 20Z
WITH CONVECTION AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT WEST TO EAST FROPA
ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 301137
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
737 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL OCCUR MAINLY THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF AN H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY EARLY TODAY.
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SHOWERS IN THE WEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND IN THE EAST PART LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE LESS
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
INTO THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM. THESE TRENDS PLUS THE DIURNAL TIMING FAVORS
SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON A RELATIVELY WARM START AND EXPECTED
AFTERNOON SUN WITH A WESTERLY AND SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY A PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE HAVE POPS 20
PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF DISPLAYS
THIS MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH. KEPT JUST A SMALL POP IN THE SOUTH PART WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST SHOULD CIRCULATE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS
MOISTURE PLUS ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS
INDICATED GREATER MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LESS
OF A SHOWER CHANCE.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCE MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO HELP CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE INDICATING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
DRYING SATURDAY. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH A DRY PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY COVERING MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. 88D REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z
AND 14Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA WITH
A TEMPO FOR TSRA ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 12Z THROUGH 20Z
WITH CONVECTION AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT WEST TO EAST FROPA
ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 301137
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
737 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL OCCUR MAINLY THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF AN H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY EARLY TODAY.
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SHOWERS IN THE WEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND IN THE EAST PART LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE LESS
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
INTO THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM. THESE TRENDS PLUS THE DIURNAL TIMING FAVORS
SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON A RELATIVELY WARM START AND EXPECTED
AFTERNOON SUN WITH A WESTERLY AND SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY A PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE HAVE POPS 20
PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF DISPLAYS
THIS MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH. KEPT JUST A SMALL POP IN THE SOUTH PART WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST SHOULD CIRCULATE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS
MOISTURE PLUS ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS
INDICATED GREATER MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LESS
OF A SHOWER CHANCE.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCE MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO HELP CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE INDICATING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
DRYING SATURDAY. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH A DRY PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY COVERING MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. 88D REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z
AND 14Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA WITH
A TEMPO FOR TSRA ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 12Z THROUGH 20Z
WITH CONVECTION AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT WEST TO EAST FROPA
ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 301137
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
737 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL OCCUR MAINLY THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF AN H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY EARLY TODAY.
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SHOWERS IN THE WEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND IN THE EAST PART LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE LESS
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
INTO THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM. THESE TRENDS PLUS THE DIURNAL TIMING FAVORS
SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON A RELATIVELY WARM START AND EXPECTED
AFTERNOON SUN WITH A WESTERLY AND SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY A PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE HAVE POPS 20
PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF DISPLAYS
THIS MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH. KEPT JUST A SMALL POP IN THE SOUTH PART WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST SHOULD CIRCULATE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS
MOISTURE PLUS ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS
INDICATED GREATER MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LESS
OF A SHOWER CHANCE.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCE MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO HELP CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE INDICATING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
DRYING SATURDAY. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH A DRY PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY COVERING MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. 88D REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z
AND 14Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA WITH
A TEMPO FOR TSRA ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 12Z THROUGH 20Z
WITH CONVECTION AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT WEST TO EAST FROPA
ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 301120
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
720 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE PESKY TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY
EAST/SE THROUGH THE MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST ZONES WILL LIE BETWEEN 2
SEPARATE JETS...BUT WE LOOK TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EACH ONE TO AID
IN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE FIRST UPPER JET IS ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SECOND IS STRONGER AND MOVES INTO ALABAMA....WESTERN GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE. WE/LL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE FIRST JET AND NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE SECOND. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO DEEP WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES...SOME AT LEAST A PART OF THAT CONVECTION UPSTREAM
WILL ERODE AS IT DRAWS CLOSER. BUT THERE IS AN INFLUX OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AND A SWATH OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH THAT IS
TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH AND NW SECTIONS...AND
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH AND SE
AREAS. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL
KEEP QPF DOWN UNDER 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH.

THERE REMAINS A RISK OF ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND WALTERBORO IN RESPONSE TO LIFTED INDICES
AS LOW AS -3 TO -5C...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH 500 TEMPS DOWN TO
MINUS 18 TO MINUS 20C AND WET BULBS UNDER 8K FT THERE MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE A RISK OF SMALL HAIL IF WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY
DEPTH TO THE CONVECTION. PLUS GIVEN PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WE
MIGHT ALSO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION...THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
WARM ADVECTION AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 7-8C. THAT ALONG WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A HUGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.
MAXIMUMS WILL HIT UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH...LOWER 70S CENTRAL
ZONES AND MAYBE A FEW MID 70S FAR SOUTH WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNT
OF INSOLATION WILL OCCUR. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WILL HOLD SOUTH
CAROLINA SHORELINE COMMUNITIES DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S...WHILE THE GEORGIA COAST WILL BE UP CLOSER TO 70 WITH LESS
FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EFFICIENT MIXING WILL TAP INTO A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AND WEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY...PEAKING AT 25 OR 30 MPH. WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. BUT
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WEST/SW WINDS PEAK AT 15-20 KT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH/SE OF THE AREA EARLY
ON..AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
REGION WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE
NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGINS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AND ALTHOUGH IT ARRIVE WITH SOME COOLER
AIR IT WON/T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE WARMER BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUS...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH WESTERLY 925-850 MB
WINDS...TURNING SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ISOLATED
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 80F CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...THIS FORECAST
MAINTAINS A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
FAR INLAND/SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS AS HIGH
AS 1.25 INCH AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK VORT EMBEDDED WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MODEL QPF...MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOST/ALL AREAS COULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
COULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER....STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
ALSO OF NOTE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD POOL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PROSPECTS TO A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE NO MOISTURE RETURN AND NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD EVEN WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN REDUCED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TRENDED FORECASTS TOWARD A DRIER
SCENARIO...LIMITING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
THURSDAY. IN TURN...REDUCED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80F MOST AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A WARM
AND RAIN-FREE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT TIMING DIFFERENCES
OFFERED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TRANSLATE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POPS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY. A
FASTER FROPA WILL SUPPORT LOWER POPS...A GREATLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND A COOLING TREND STARTING SATURDAY. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BUT ADJUSTMENTS
COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED T-STORMS AROUND DURING FROM ROUGHLY 17-22Z. SHOULD ANY
OF THESE IMPACT THE TERMINALS THERE COULD BE WIND GUSTS OF 30-35
KT AND MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR WEATHER.

OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE TIME WHEN THE AXIS OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN SYNC WITH PEAK HEATING.
THIS WILL GENERATE SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT TO OCCUR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NUDGE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE...AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR SC WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF A
35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INTERACTION
OF THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A TIGHT ENOUGH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF AMZ350 TO ALLOW FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS TO REACH NEAR OR PAST 25 KT...WITH EVEN SOME 6 FOOT SEAS. FOR
THESE REASONS WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE 2
BODIES OF WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM. THE OTHER WATERS WILL PEAK AT
15 OR 20 KT...SO NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT AFTERNOON T-STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GEORGIA WATERS EARLY ON...TAKING
WITH IT LINGERING CONVECTION AND REPLACED BY AN ANEMIC REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ONLY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AT BEST...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF SURGE OF SUB-SCA NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS SC WATERS TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ALL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE LAYER STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SURGE
OF SCA GUSTS AROUND 25 KT/SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT COULD OCCUR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A WEAKER GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO SUB-SCA WINDS
VEERING FROM E/SE TO S/SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT
MARGINAL SCA WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MARINE LAYER
STABILITY COULD AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER COLD FROPA
SATURDAY...EXPECT A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS APPEARS RATHER HIGH THIS WEEKEND.

ALSO OF NOTE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330-350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 301120
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
720 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE PESKY TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY
EAST/SE THROUGH THE MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST ZONES WILL LIE BETWEEN 2
SEPARATE JETS...BUT WE LOOK TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EACH ONE TO AID
IN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE FIRST UPPER JET IS ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SECOND IS STRONGER AND MOVES INTO ALABAMA....WESTERN GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE. WE/LL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE FIRST JET AND NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE SECOND. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO DEEP WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES...SOME AT LEAST A PART OF THAT CONVECTION UPSTREAM
WILL ERODE AS IT DRAWS CLOSER. BUT THERE IS AN INFLUX OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AND A SWATH OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH THAT IS
TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH AND NW SECTIONS...AND
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH AND SE
AREAS. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL
KEEP QPF DOWN UNDER 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH.

THERE REMAINS A RISK OF ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND WALTERBORO IN RESPONSE TO LIFTED INDICES
AS LOW AS -3 TO -5C...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH 500 TEMPS DOWN TO
MINUS 18 TO MINUS 20C AND WET BULBS UNDER 8K FT THERE MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE A RISK OF SMALL HAIL IF WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY
DEPTH TO THE CONVECTION. PLUS GIVEN PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WE
MIGHT ALSO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION...THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
WARM ADVECTION AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 7-8C. THAT ALONG WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A HUGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.
MAXIMUMS WILL HIT UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH...LOWER 70S CENTRAL
ZONES AND MAYBE A FEW MID 70S FAR SOUTH WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNT
OF INSOLATION WILL OCCUR. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WILL HOLD SOUTH
CAROLINA SHORELINE COMMUNITIES DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S...WHILE THE GEORGIA COAST WILL BE UP CLOSER TO 70 WITH LESS
FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EFFICIENT MIXING WILL TAP INTO A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AND WEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY...PEAKING AT 25 OR 30 MPH. WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. BUT
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WEST/SW WINDS PEAK AT 15-20 KT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH/SE OF THE AREA EARLY
ON..AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
REGION WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE
NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGINS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AND ALTHOUGH IT ARRIVE WITH SOME COOLER
AIR IT WON/T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE WARMER BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUS...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH WESTERLY 925-850 MB
WINDS...TURNING SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ISOLATED
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 80F CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...THIS FORECAST
MAINTAINS A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
FAR INLAND/SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS AS HIGH
AS 1.25 INCH AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK VORT EMBEDDED WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MODEL QPF...MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOST/ALL AREAS COULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
COULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER....STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
ALSO OF NOTE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD POOL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PROSPECTS TO A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE NO MOISTURE RETURN AND NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD EVEN WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN REDUCED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TRENDED FORECASTS TOWARD A DRIER
SCENARIO...LIMITING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
THURSDAY. IN TURN...REDUCED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80F MOST AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A WARM
AND RAIN-FREE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT TIMING DIFFERENCES
OFFERED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TRANSLATE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POPS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY. A
FASTER FROPA WILL SUPPORT LOWER POPS...A GREATLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND A COOLING TREND STARTING SATURDAY. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BUT ADJUSTMENTS
COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED T-STORMS AROUND DURING FROM ROUGHLY 17-22Z. SHOULD ANY
OF THESE IMPACT THE TERMINALS THERE COULD BE WIND GUSTS OF 30-35
KT AND MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR WEATHER.

OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE TIME WHEN THE AXIS OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN SYNC WITH PEAK HEATING.
THIS WILL GENERATE SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT TO OCCUR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NUDGE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE...AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR SC WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF A
35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INTERACTION
OF THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A TIGHT ENOUGH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF AMZ350 TO ALLOW FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS TO REACH NEAR OR PAST 25 KT...WITH EVEN SOME 6 FOOT SEAS. FOR
THESE REASONS WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE 2
BODIES OF WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM. THE OTHER WATERS WILL PEAK AT
15 OR 20 KT...SO NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT AFTERNOON T-STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GEORGIA WATERS EARLY ON...TAKING
WITH IT LINGERING CONVECTION AND REPLACED BY AN ANEMIC REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ONLY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AT BEST...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF SURGE OF SUB-SCA NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS SC WATERS TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ALL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE LAYER STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SURGE
OF SCA GUSTS AROUND 25 KT/SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT COULD OCCUR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A WEAKER GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO SUB-SCA WINDS
VEERING FROM E/SE TO S/SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT
MARGINAL SCA WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MARINE LAYER
STABILITY COULD AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER COLD FROPA
SATURDAY...EXPECT A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS APPEARS RATHER HIGH THIS WEEKEND.

ALSO OF NOTE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330-350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 301120
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
720 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE PESKY TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY
EAST/SE THROUGH THE MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST ZONES WILL LIE BETWEEN 2
SEPARATE JETS...BUT WE LOOK TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EACH ONE TO AID
IN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE FIRST UPPER JET IS ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SECOND IS STRONGER AND MOVES INTO ALABAMA....WESTERN GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE. WE/LL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE FIRST JET AND NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE SECOND. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO DEEP WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES...SOME AT LEAST A PART OF THAT CONVECTION UPSTREAM
WILL ERODE AS IT DRAWS CLOSER. BUT THERE IS AN INFLUX OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AND A SWATH OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH THAT IS
TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH AND NW SECTIONS...AND
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH AND SE
AREAS. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL
KEEP QPF DOWN UNDER 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH.

THERE REMAINS A RISK OF ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND WALTERBORO IN RESPONSE TO LIFTED INDICES
AS LOW AS -3 TO -5C...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH 500 TEMPS DOWN TO
MINUS 18 TO MINUS 20C AND WET BULBS UNDER 8K FT THERE MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE A RISK OF SMALL HAIL IF WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY
DEPTH TO THE CONVECTION. PLUS GIVEN PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WE
MIGHT ALSO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION...THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
WARM ADVECTION AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 7-8C. THAT ALONG WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A HUGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.
MAXIMUMS WILL HIT UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH...LOWER 70S CENTRAL
ZONES AND MAYBE A FEW MID 70S FAR SOUTH WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNT
OF INSOLATION WILL OCCUR. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WILL HOLD SOUTH
CAROLINA SHORELINE COMMUNITIES DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S...WHILE THE GEORGIA COAST WILL BE UP CLOSER TO 70 WITH LESS
FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EFFICIENT MIXING WILL TAP INTO A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AND WEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY...PEAKING AT 25 OR 30 MPH. WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. BUT
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WEST/SW WINDS PEAK AT 15-20 KT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH/SE OF THE AREA EARLY
ON..AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
REGION WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE
NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGINS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AND ALTHOUGH IT ARRIVE WITH SOME COOLER
AIR IT WON/T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE WARMER BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUS...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH WESTERLY 925-850 MB
WINDS...TURNING SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ISOLATED
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 80F CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...THIS FORECAST
MAINTAINS A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
FAR INLAND/SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS AS HIGH
AS 1.25 INCH AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK VORT EMBEDDED WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MODEL QPF...MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOST/ALL AREAS COULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
COULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER....STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
ALSO OF NOTE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD POOL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PROSPECTS TO A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE NO MOISTURE RETURN AND NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD EVEN WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN REDUCED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TRENDED FORECASTS TOWARD A DRIER
SCENARIO...LIMITING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
THURSDAY. IN TURN...REDUCED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80F MOST AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A WARM
AND RAIN-FREE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT TIMING DIFFERENCES
OFFERED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TRANSLATE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POPS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY. A
FASTER FROPA WILL SUPPORT LOWER POPS...A GREATLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND A COOLING TREND STARTING SATURDAY. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BUT ADJUSTMENTS
COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED T-STORMS AROUND DURING FROM ROUGHLY 17-22Z. SHOULD ANY
OF THESE IMPACT THE TERMINALS THERE COULD BE WIND GUSTS OF 30-35
KT AND MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR WEATHER.

OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE TIME WHEN THE AXIS OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN SYNC WITH PEAK HEATING.
THIS WILL GENERATE SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT TO OCCUR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NUDGE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE...AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR SC WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF A
35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INTERACTION
OF THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A TIGHT ENOUGH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF AMZ350 TO ALLOW FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS TO REACH NEAR OR PAST 25 KT...WITH EVEN SOME 6 FOOT SEAS. FOR
THESE REASONS WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE 2
BODIES OF WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM. THE OTHER WATERS WILL PEAK AT
15 OR 20 KT...SO NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT AFTERNOON T-STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GEORGIA WATERS EARLY ON...TAKING
WITH IT LINGERING CONVECTION AND REPLACED BY AN ANEMIC REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ONLY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AT BEST...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF SURGE OF SUB-SCA NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS SC WATERS TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ALL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE LAYER STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SURGE
OF SCA GUSTS AROUND 25 KT/SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT COULD OCCUR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A WEAKER GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO SUB-SCA WINDS
VEERING FROM E/SE TO S/SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT
MARGINAL SCA WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MARINE LAYER
STABILITY COULD AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER COLD FROPA
SATURDAY...EXPECT A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS APPEARS RATHER HIGH THIS WEEKEND.

ALSO OF NOTE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330-350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 301120
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
720 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE PESKY TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY
EAST/SE THROUGH THE MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST ZONES WILL LIE BETWEEN 2
SEPARATE JETS...BUT WE LOOK TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EACH ONE TO AID
IN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE FIRST UPPER JET IS ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SECOND IS STRONGER AND MOVES INTO ALABAMA....WESTERN GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE. WE/LL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE FIRST JET AND NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE SECOND. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO DEEP WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES...SOME AT LEAST A PART OF THAT CONVECTION UPSTREAM
WILL ERODE AS IT DRAWS CLOSER. BUT THERE IS AN INFLUX OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AND A SWATH OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH THAT IS
TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH AND NW SECTIONS...AND
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH AND SE
AREAS. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL
KEEP QPF DOWN UNDER 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH.

THERE REMAINS A RISK OF ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND WALTERBORO IN RESPONSE TO LIFTED INDICES
AS LOW AS -3 TO -5C...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH 500 TEMPS DOWN TO
MINUS 18 TO MINUS 20C AND WET BULBS UNDER 8K FT THERE MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE A RISK OF SMALL HAIL IF WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY
DEPTH TO THE CONVECTION. PLUS GIVEN PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WE
MIGHT ALSO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION...THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
WARM ADVECTION AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 7-8C. THAT ALONG WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A HUGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.
MAXIMUMS WILL HIT UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH...LOWER 70S CENTRAL
ZONES AND MAYBE A FEW MID 70S FAR SOUTH WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNT
OF INSOLATION WILL OCCUR. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WILL HOLD SOUTH
CAROLINA SHORELINE COMMUNITIES DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S...WHILE THE GEORGIA COAST WILL BE UP CLOSER TO 70 WITH LESS
FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EFFICIENT MIXING WILL TAP INTO A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AND WEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY...PEAKING AT 25 OR 30 MPH. WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. BUT
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WEST/SW WINDS PEAK AT 15-20 KT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH/SE OF THE AREA EARLY
ON..AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
REGION WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE
NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGINS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AND ALTHOUGH IT ARRIVE WITH SOME COOLER
AIR IT WON/T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE WARMER BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUS...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH WESTERLY 925-850 MB
WINDS...TURNING SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ISOLATED
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 80F CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...THIS FORECAST
MAINTAINS A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
FAR INLAND/SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS AS HIGH
AS 1.25 INCH AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK VORT EMBEDDED WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MODEL QPF...MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOST/ALL AREAS COULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
COULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER....STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
ALSO OF NOTE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD POOL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PROSPECTS TO A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE NO MOISTURE RETURN AND NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD EVEN WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN REDUCED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TRENDED FORECASTS TOWARD A DRIER
SCENARIO...LIMITING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
THURSDAY. IN TURN...REDUCED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80F MOST AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A WARM
AND RAIN-FREE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT TIMING DIFFERENCES
OFFERED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TRANSLATE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POPS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY. A
FASTER FROPA WILL SUPPORT LOWER POPS...A GREATLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND A COOLING TREND STARTING SATURDAY. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BUT ADJUSTMENTS
COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED T-STORMS AROUND DURING FROM ROUGHLY 17-22Z. SHOULD ANY
OF THESE IMPACT THE TERMINALS THERE COULD BE WIND GUSTS OF 30-35
KT AND MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR WEATHER.

OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE TIME WHEN THE AXIS OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN SYNC WITH PEAK HEATING.
THIS WILL GENERATE SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT TO OCCUR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NUDGE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE...AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR SC WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF A
35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INTERACTION
OF THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A TIGHT ENOUGH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF AMZ350 TO ALLOW FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS TO REACH NEAR OR PAST 25 KT...WITH EVEN SOME 6 FOOT SEAS. FOR
THESE REASONS WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE 2
BODIES OF WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM. THE OTHER WATERS WILL PEAK AT
15 OR 20 KT...SO NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT AFTERNOON T-STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GEORGIA WATERS EARLY ON...TAKING
WITH IT LINGERING CONVECTION AND REPLACED BY AN ANEMIC REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ONLY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AT BEST...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF SURGE OF SUB-SCA NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS SC WATERS TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ALL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE LAYER STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SURGE
OF SCA GUSTS AROUND 25 KT/SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT COULD OCCUR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A WEAKER GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO SUB-SCA WINDS
VEERING FROM E/SE TO S/SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT
MARGINAL SCA WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MARINE LAYER
STABILITY COULD AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER COLD FROPA
SATURDAY...EXPECT A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS APPEARS RATHER HIGH THIS WEEKEND.

ALSO OF NOTE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330-350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KFFC 301118
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
718 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.

THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FROPA IS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS
WITHIN THE RAIN AND ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD BE BRIEF. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CLEARING OUT MOST OF THE CLOUDS BY MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FROPA
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
STAY OUT OF THE NW...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL DIP TO 6KT OR
BELOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  75  53 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  55 /  90   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  68  46 /  70   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  74  52 /  90   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  78  58 /  50  10  30  30
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  90   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  78  56 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  73  50 /  70   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  54 /  90   5  30  30
VIDALIA         72  50  78  59 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 301118
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
718 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.

THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FROPA IS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS
WITHIN THE RAIN AND ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD BE BRIEF. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CLEARING OUT MOST OF THE CLOUDS BY MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FROPA
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
STAY OUT OF THE NW...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL DIP TO 6KT OR
BELOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  75  53 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  55 /  90   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  68  46 /  70   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  74  52 /  90   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  78  58 /  50  10  30  30
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  90   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  78  56 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  73  50 /  70   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  54 /  90   5  30  30
VIDALIA         72  50  78  59 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 301118
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
718 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.

THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FROPA IS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS
WITHIN THE RAIN AND ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD BE BRIEF. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CLEARING OUT MOST OF THE CLOUDS BY MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FROPA
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
STAY OUT OF THE NW...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL DIP TO 6KT OR
BELOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  75  53 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  55 /  90   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  68  46 /  70   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  74  52 /  90   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  78  58 /  50  10  30  30
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  90   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  78  56 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  73  50 /  70   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  54 /  90   5  30  30
VIDALIA         72  50  78  59 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 301118
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
718 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.

THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FROPA IS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS
WITHIN THE RAIN AND ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD BE BRIEF. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CLEARING OUT MOST OF THE CLOUDS BY MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FROPA
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
STAY OUT OF THE NW...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL DIP TO 6KT OR
BELOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  75  53 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  55 /  90   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  68  46 /  70   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  74  52 /  90   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  78  58 /  50  10  30  30
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  90   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  78  56 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  73  50 /  70   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  54 /  90   5  30  30
VIDALIA         72  50  78  59 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 301118
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
718 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.

THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FROPA IS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS
WITHIN THE RAIN AND ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD BE BRIEF. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CLEARING OUT MOST OF THE CLOUDS BY MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FROPA
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
STAY OUT OF THE NW...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL DIP TO 6KT OR
BELOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  75  53 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  55 /  90   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  68  46 /  70   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  74  52 /  90   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  78  58 /  50  10  30  30
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  90   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  78  56 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  73  50 /  70   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  54 /  90   5  30  30
VIDALIA         72  50  78  59 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 301118
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
718 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.

THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FROPA IS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS
WITHIN THE RAIN AND ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD BE BRIEF. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CLEARING OUT MOST OF THE CLOUDS BY MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FROPA
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
STAY OUT OF THE NW...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL DIP TO 6KT OR
BELOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  75  53 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  55 /  90   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  68  46 /  70   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  74  52 /  90   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  78  58 /  50  10  30  30
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  90   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  78  56 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  73  50 /  70   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  54 /  90   5  30  30
VIDALIA         72  50  78  59 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 301118
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
718 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.

THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FROPA IS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS
WITHIN THE RAIN AND ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD BE BRIEF. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CLEARING OUT MOST OF THE CLOUDS BY MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FROPA
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
STAY OUT OF THE NW...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL DIP TO 6KT OR
BELOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  75  53 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  55 /  90   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  68  46 /  70   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  74  52 /  90   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  78  58 /  50  10  30  30
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  90   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  78  56 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  73  50 /  70   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  54 /  90   5  30  30
VIDALIA         72  50  78  59 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 301118
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
718 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.

THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FROPA IS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS
WITHIN THE RAIN AND ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD BE BRIEF. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CLEARING OUT MOST OF THE CLOUDS BY MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FROPA
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
STAY OUT OF THE NW...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL DIP TO 6KT OR
BELOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  75  53 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  55 /  90   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  68  46 /  70   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  74  52 /  90   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  78  58 /  50  10  30  30
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  90   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  78  56 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  73  50 /  70   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  54 /  90   5  30  30
VIDALIA         72  50  78  59 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCHS 301114
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
714 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE PESKY TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY
EAST/SE THROUGH THE MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST ZONES WILL LIE BETWEEN 2
SEPARATE JETS...BUT WE LOOK TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EACH ONE TO AID
IN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE FIRST UPPER JET IS ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SECOND IS STRONGER AND MOVES INTO ALABAMA....WESTERN GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE. WE/LL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE FIRST JET AND NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE SECOND. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO DEEP WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES...SOME AT LEAST A PART OF THAT CONVECTION UPSTREAM
WILL ERODE AS IT DRAWS CLOSER. BUT THERE IS AN INFLUX OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AND A SWATH OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH THAT IS
TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH AND NW SECTIONS...AND
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH AND SE
AREAS. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL
KEEP QPF DOWN UNDER 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH.

THERE REMAINS A RISK OF ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND WALTERBORO IN RESPONSE TO LIFTED INDICES
AS LOW AS -3 TO -5C...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH 500 TEMPS DOWN TO
MINUS 18 TO MINUS 20C AND WET BULBS UNDER 8K FT THERE MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE A RISK OF SMALL HAIL IF WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY
DEPTH TO THE CONVECTION. PLUS GIVEN PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WE
MIGHT ALSO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION...THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
WARM ADVECTION AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 7-8C. THAT ALONG WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A HUGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.
MAXIMUMS WILL HIT UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH...LOWER 70S CENTRAL
ZONES AND MAYBE A FEW MID 70S FAR SOUTH WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNT
OF INSOLATION WILL OCCUR. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WILL HOLD SOUTH
CAROLINA SHORELINE COMMUNITIES DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S...WHILE THE GEORGIA COAST WILL BE UP CLOSER TO 70 WITH LESS
FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EFFICIENT MIXING WILL TAP INTO A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AND WEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY...PEAKING AT 25 OR 30 MPH. WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. BUT
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WEST/SW WINDS PEAK AT 15-20 KT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH/SE OF THE AREA EARLY
ON..AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
REGION WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE
NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGINS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AND ALTHOUGH IT ARRIVE WITH SOME COOLER
AIR IT WON/T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE WARMER BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUS...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH WESTERLY 925-850 MB
WINDS...TURNING SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ISOLATED
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 80F CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...THIS FORECAST
MAINTAINS A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
FAR INLAND/SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS AS HIGH
AS 1.25 INCH AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK VORT EMBEDDED WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MODEL QPF...MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOST/ALL AREAS COULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
COULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER....STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
ALSO OF NOTE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD POOL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PROSPECTS TO A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE NO MOISTURE RETURN AND NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD EVEN WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN REDUCED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TRENDED FORECASTS TOWARD A DRIER
SCENARIO...LIMITING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
THURSDAY. IN TURN...REDUCED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80F MOST AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A WARM
AND RAIN-FREE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT TIMING DIFFERENCES
OFFERED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TRANSLATE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POPS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY. A
FASTER FROPA WILL SUPPORT LOWER POPS...A GREATLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND A COOLING TREND STARTING SATURDAY. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BUT ADJUSTMENTS
COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE COULD BE A GUSTY SHOWER OR TWO AT
EITHER SITE DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...WITH A REMOTE
POSSIBILITY OF TSRA TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY NEAR KSAV.
OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE TIME WHEN THE AXIS OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN SYNC WITH PEAK HEATING.
THIS WILL GENERATE SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT TO OCCUR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NUDGE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE...AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR SC WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF A
35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INTERACTION
OF THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A TIGHT ENOUGH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF AMZ350 TO ALLOW FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS TO REACH NEAR OR PAST 25 KT...WITH EVEN SOME 6 FOOT SEAS. FOR
THESE REASONS WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE 2
BODIES OF WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM. THE OTHER WATERS WILL PEAK AT
15 OR 20 KT...SO NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT AFTERNOON T-STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GEORGIA WATERS EARLY ON...TAKING
WITH IT LINGERING CONVECTION AND REPLACED BY AN ANEMIC REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ONLY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AT BEST...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF SURGE OF SUB-SCA NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS SC WATERS TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ALL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE LAYER STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SURGE
OF SCA GUSTS AROUND 25 KT/SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT COULD OCCUR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A WEAKER GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO SUB-SCA WINDS
VEERING FROM E/SE TO S/SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT
MARGINAL SCA WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MARINE LAYER
STABILITY COULD AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER COLD FROPA
SATURDAY...EXPECT A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS APPEARS RATHER HIGH THIS WEEKEND.

ALSO OF NOTE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330-350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 301114
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
714 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE PESKY TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY
EAST/SE THROUGH THE MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST ZONES WILL LIE BETWEEN 2
SEPARATE JETS...BUT WE LOOK TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EACH ONE TO AID
IN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE FIRST UPPER JET IS ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SECOND IS STRONGER AND MOVES INTO ALABAMA....WESTERN GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE. WE/LL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE FIRST JET AND NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE SECOND. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO DEEP WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES...SOME AT LEAST A PART OF THAT CONVECTION UPSTREAM
WILL ERODE AS IT DRAWS CLOSER. BUT THERE IS AN INFLUX OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AND A SWATH OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH THAT IS
TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH AND NW SECTIONS...AND
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH AND SE
AREAS. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL
KEEP QPF DOWN UNDER 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH.

THERE REMAINS A RISK OF ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND WALTERBORO IN RESPONSE TO LIFTED INDICES
AS LOW AS -3 TO -5C...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH 500 TEMPS DOWN TO
MINUS 18 TO MINUS 20C AND WET BULBS UNDER 8K FT THERE MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE A RISK OF SMALL HAIL IF WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY
DEPTH TO THE CONVECTION. PLUS GIVEN PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WE
MIGHT ALSO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION...THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
WARM ADVECTION AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 7-8C. THAT ALONG WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A HUGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.
MAXIMUMS WILL HIT UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH...LOWER 70S CENTRAL
ZONES AND MAYBE A FEW MID 70S FAR SOUTH WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNT
OF INSOLATION WILL OCCUR. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WILL HOLD SOUTH
CAROLINA SHORELINE COMMUNITIES DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S...WHILE THE GEORGIA COAST WILL BE UP CLOSER TO 70 WITH LESS
FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EFFICIENT MIXING WILL TAP INTO A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AND WEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY...PEAKING AT 25 OR 30 MPH. WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. BUT
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WEST/SW WINDS PEAK AT 15-20 KT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH/SE OF THE AREA EARLY
ON..AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
REGION WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE
NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGINS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AND ALTHOUGH IT ARRIVE WITH SOME COOLER
AIR IT WON/T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE WARMER BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUS...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH WESTERLY 925-850 MB
WINDS...TURNING SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ISOLATED
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 80F CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...THIS FORECAST
MAINTAINS A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
FAR INLAND/SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS AS HIGH
AS 1.25 INCH AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK VORT EMBEDDED WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MODEL QPF...MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOST/ALL AREAS COULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
COULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER....STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
ALSO OF NOTE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD POOL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PROSPECTS TO A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE NO MOISTURE RETURN AND NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD EVEN WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN REDUCED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TRENDED FORECASTS TOWARD A DRIER
SCENARIO...LIMITING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
THURSDAY. IN TURN...REDUCED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80F MOST AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A WARM
AND RAIN-FREE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT TIMING DIFFERENCES
OFFERED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TRANSLATE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POPS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY. A
FASTER FROPA WILL SUPPORT LOWER POPS...A GREATLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND A COOLING TREND STARTING SATURDAY. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BUT ADJUSTMENTS
COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE COULD BE A GUSTY SHOWER OR TWO AT
EITHER SITE DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...WITH A REMOTE
POSSIBILITY OF TSRA TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY NEAR KSAV.
OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE TIME WHEN THE AXIS OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN SYNC WITH PEAK HEATING.
THIS WILL GENERATE SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT TO OCCUR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NUDGE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE...AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR SC WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF A
35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INTERACTION
OF THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A TIGHT ENOUGH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF AMZ350 TO ALLOW FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS TO REACH NEAR OR PAST 25 KT...WITH EVEN SOME 6 FOOT SEAS. FOR
THESE REASONS WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE 2
BODIES OF WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM. THE OTHER WATERS WILL PEAK AT
15 OR 20 KT...SO NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT AFTERNOON T-STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GEORGIA WATERS EARLY ON...TAKING
WITH IT LINGERING CONVECTION AND REPLACED BY AN ANEMIC REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ONLY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AT BEST...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF SURGE OF SUB-SCA NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS SC WATERS TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ALL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE LAYER STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SURGE
OF SCA GUSTS AROUND 25 KT/SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT COULD OCCUR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A WEAKER GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO SUB-SCA WINDS
VEERING FROM E/SE TO S/SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT
MARGINAL SCA WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MARINE LAYER
STABILITY COULD AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER COLD FROPA
SATURDAY...EXPECT A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS APPEARS RATHER HIGH THIS WEEKEND.

ALSO OF NOTE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330-350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 301114
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
714 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE PESKY TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY
EAST/SE THROUGH THE MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST ZONES WILL LIE BETWEEN 2
SEPARATE JETS...BUT WE LOOK TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EACH ONE TO AID
IN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE FIRST UPPER JET IS ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SECOND IS STRONGER AND MOVES INTO ALABAMA....WESTERN GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE. WE/LL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE FIRST JET AND NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE SECOND. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO DEEP WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES...SOME AT LEAST A PART OF THAT CONVECTION UPSTREAM
WILL ERODE AS IT DRAWS CLOSER. BUT THERE IS AN INFLUX OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AND A SWATH OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH THAT IS
TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH AND NW SECTIONS...AND
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH AND SE
AREAS. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL
KEEP QPF DOWN UNDER 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH.

THERE REMAINS A RISK OF ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND WALTERBORO IN RESPONSE TO LIFTED INDICES
AS LOW AS -3 TO -5C...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH 500 TEMPS DOWN TO
MINUS 18 TO MINUS 20C AND WET BULBS UNDER 8K FT THERE MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE A RISK OF SMALL HAIL IF WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY
DEPTH TO THE CONVECTION. PLUS GIVEN PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WE
MIGHT ALSO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION...THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
WARM ADVECTION AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 7-8C. THAT ALONG WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A HUGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.
MAXIMUMS WILL HIT UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH...LOWER 70S CENTRAL
ZONES AND MAYBE A FEW MID 70S FAR SOUTH WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNT
OF INSOLATION WILL OCCUR. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WILL HOLD SOUTH
CAROLINA SHORELINE COMMUNITIES DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S...WHILE THE GEORGIA COAST WILL BE UP CLOSER TO 70 WITH LESS
FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EFFICIENT MIXING WILL TAP INTO A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AND WEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY...PEAKING AT 25 OR 30 MPH. WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. BUT
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WEST/SW WINDS PEAK AT 15-20 KT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH/SE OF THE AREA EARLY
ON..AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
REGION WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE
NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGINS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AND ALTHOUGH IT ARRIVE WITH SOME COOLER
AIR IT WON/T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE WARMER BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUS...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH WESTERLY 925-850 MB
WINDS...TURNING SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ISOLATED
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 80F CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...THIS FORECAST
MAINTAINS A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
FAR INLAND/SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS AS HIGH
AS 1.25 INCH AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK VORT EMBEDDED WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MODEL QPF...MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOST/ALL AREAS COULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
COULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER....STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
ALSO OF NOTE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD POOL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PROSPECTS TO A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE NO MOISTURE RETURN AND NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD EVEN WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN REDUCED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TRENDED FORECASTS TOWARD A DRIER
SCENARIO...LIMITING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
THURSDAY. IN TURN...REDUCED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80F MOST AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A WARM
AND RAIN-FREE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT TIMING DIFFERENCES
OFFERED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TRANSLATE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POPS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY. A
FASTER FROPA WILL SUPPORT LOWER POPS...A GREATLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND A COOLING TREND STARTING SATURDAY. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BUT ADJUSTMENTS
COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE COULD BE A GUSTY SHOWER OR TWO AT
EITHER SITE DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...WITH A REMOTE
POSSIBILITY OF TSRA TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY NEAR KSAV.
OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE TIME WHEN THE AXIS OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN SYNC WITH PEAK HEATING.
THIS WILL GENERATE SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT TO OCCUR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NUDGE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE...AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR SC WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF A
35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INTERACTION
OF THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A TIGHT ENOUGH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF AMZ350 TO ALLOW FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS TO REACH NEAR OR PAST 25 KT...WITH EVEN SOME 6 FOOT SEAS. FOR
THESE REASONS WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE 2
BODIES OF WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM. THE OTHER WATERS WILL PEAK AT
15 OR 20 KT...SO NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT AFTERNOON T-STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GEORGIA WATERS EARLY ON...TAKING
WITH IT LINGERING CONVECTION AND REPLACED BY AN ANEMIC REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ONLY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AT BEST...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF SURGE OF SUB-SCA NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS SC WATERS TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ALL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE LAYER STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SURGE
OF SCA GUSTS AROUND 25 KT/SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT COULD OCCUR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A WEAKER GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO SUB-SCA WINDS
VEERING FROM E/SE TO S/SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT
MARGINAL SCA WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MARINE LAYER
STABILITY COULD AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER COLD FROPA
SATURDAY...EXPECT A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS APPEARS RATHER HIGH THIS WEEKEND.

ALSO OF NOTE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330-350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 301114
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
714 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE PESKY TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY
EAST/SE THROUGH THE MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST ZONES WILL LIE BETWEEN 2
SEPARATE JETS...BUT WE LOOK TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EACH ONE TO AID
IN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE FIRST UPPER JET IS ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SECOND IS STRONGER AND MOVES INTO ALABAMA....WESTERN GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE. WE/LL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE FIRST JET AND NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE SECOND. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO DEEP WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES...SOME AT LEAST A PART OF THAT CONVECTION UPSTREAM
WILL ERODE AS IT DRAWS CLOSER. BUT THERE IS AN INFLUX OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AND A SWATH OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH THAT IS
TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH AND NW SECTIONS...AND
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH AND SE
AREAS. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL
KEEP QPF DOWN UNDER 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH.

THERE REMAINS A RISK OF ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND WALTERBORO IN RESPONSE TO LIFTED INDICES
AS LOW AS -3 TO -5C...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH 500 TEMPS DOWN TO
MINUS 18 TO MINUS 20C AND WET BULBS UNDER 8K FT THERE MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE A RISK OF SMALL HAIL IF WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY
DEPTH TO THE CONVECTION. PLUS GIVEN PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WE
MIGHT ALSO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION...THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
WARM ADVECTION AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 7-8C. THAT ALONG WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A HUGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.
MAXIMUMS WILL HIT UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH...LOWER 70S CENTRAL
ZONES AND MAYBE A FEW MID 70S FAR SOUTH WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNT
OF INSOLATION WILL OCCUR. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WILL HOLD SOUTH
CAROLINA SHORELINE COMMUNITIES DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S...WHILE THE GEORGIA COAST WILL BE UP CLOSER TO 70 WITH LESS
FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EFFICIENT MIXING WILL TAP INTO A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AND WEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY...PEAKING AT 25 OR 30 MPH. WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. BUT
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WEST/SW WINDS PEAK AT 15-20 KT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH/SE OF THE AREA EARLY
ON..AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
REGION WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE
NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGINS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AND ALTHOUGH IT ARRIVE WITH SOME COOLER
AIR IT WON/T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE WARMER BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUS...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH WESTERLY 925-850 MB
WINDS...TURNING SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ISOLATED
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 80F CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...THIS FORECAST
MAINTAINS A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
FAR INLAND/SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS AS HIGH
AS 1.25 INCH AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK VORT EMBEDDED WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MODEL QPF...MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOST/ALL AREAS COULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
COULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER....STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
ALSO OF NOTE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD POOL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PROSPECTS TO A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE NO MOISTURE RETURN AND NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD EVEN WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN REDUCED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TRENDED FORECASTS TOWARD A DRIER
SCENARIO...LIMITING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
THURSDAY. IN TURN...REDUCED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80F MOST AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A WARM
AND RAIN-FREE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT TIMING DIFFERENCES
OFFERED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TRANSLATE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POPS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY. A
FASTER FROPA WILL SUPPORT LOWER POPS...A GREATLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND A COOLING TREND STARTING SATURDAY. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BUT ADJUSTMENTS
COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE COULD BE A GUSTY SHOWER OR TWO AT
EITHER SITE DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...WITH A REMOTE
POSSIBILITY OF TSRA TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY NEAR KSAV.
OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE TIME WHEN THE AXIS OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN SYNC WITH PEAK HEATING.
THIS WILL GENERATE SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT TO OCCUR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NUDGE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE...AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR SC WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF A
35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INTERACTION
OF THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A TIGHT ENOUGH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF AMZ350 TO ALLOW FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS TO REACH NEAR OR PAST 25 KT...WITH EVEN SOME 6 FOOT SEAS. FOR
THESE REASONS WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE 2
BODIES OF WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM. THE OTHER WATERS WILL PEAK AT
15 OR 20 KT...SO NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT AFTERNOON T-STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GEORGIA WATERS EARLY ON...TAKING
WITH IT LINGERING CONVECTION AND REPLACED BY AN ANEMIC REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ONLY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AT BEST...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF SURGE OF SUB-SCA NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS SC WATERS TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ALL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE LAYER STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SURGE
OF SCA GUSTS AROUND 25 KT/SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT COULD OCCUR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A WEAKER GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO SUB-SCA WINDS
VEERING FROM E/SE TO S/SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT
MARGINAL SCA WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MARINE LAYER
STABILITY COULD AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER COLD FROPA
SATURDAY...EXPECT A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS APPEARS RATHER HIGH THIS WEEKEND.

ALSO OF NOTE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330-350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 301044
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
644 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE PESKY TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY
EAST/SE THROUGH THE MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST ZONES WILL LIE BETWEEN 2
SEPARATE JETS...BUT WE LOOK TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EACH ONE TO AID
IN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE FIRST UPPER JET IS ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SECOND IS STRONGER AND MOVES INTO ALABAMA....WESTERN GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE. WE/LL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE FIRST JET AND NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE SECOND. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO DEEP WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES...SOME AT LEAST A PART OF THAT CONVECTION UPSTREAM
WILL ERODE AS IT DRAWS CLOSER. BUT THERE IS AN INFLUX OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AND A SWATH OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH THAT IS
TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH AND NW SECTIONS...AND
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH AND SE
AREAS. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL
KEEP QPF DOWN UNDER 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH.

THERE REMAINS A RISK OF ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND WALTERBORO IN RESPONSE TO LIFTED INDICES
AS LOW AS -3 TO -5C...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH 500 TEMPS DOWN TO
MINUS 18 TO MINUS 20C AND WET BULBS UNDER 8K FT THERE MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE A RISK OF SMALL HAIL IF WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY
DEPTH TO THE CONVECTION. PLUS GIVEN PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WE
MIGHT ALSO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION...THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
WARM ADVECTION AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 7-8C. THAT ALONG WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A HUGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.
MAXIMUMS WILL HIT UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH...LOWER 70S CENTRAL
ZONES AND MAYBE A FEW MID 70S FAR SOUTH WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNT
OF INSOLATION WILL OCCUR. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WILL HOLD SOUTH
CAROLINA SHORELINE COMMUNITIES DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S...WHILE THE GEORGIA COAST WILL BE UP CLOSER TO 70 WITH LESS
FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EFFICIENT MIXING WILL TAP INTO A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AND WEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY...PEAKING AT 25 OR 30 MPH. WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. BUT
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WEST/SW WINDS PEAK AT 15-20 KT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH/SE OF THE AREA EARLY
ON..AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
REGION WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE
NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGINS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AND ALTHOUGH IT ARRIVE WITH SOME COOLER
AIR IT WON/T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE WARMER BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUS...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH WESTERLY 925-850 MB
WINDS...TURNING SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ISOLATED
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 80F CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...THIS FORECAST
MAINTAINS A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
FAR INLAND/SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS AS HIGH
AS 1.25 INCH AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK VORT EMBEDDED WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MODEL QPF...MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOST/ALL AREAS COULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
COULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER....STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
ALSO OF NOTE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD POOL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PROSPECTS TO A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE NO MOISTURE RETURN AND NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD EVEN WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN REDUCED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TRENDED FORECASTS TOWARD A DRIER
SCENARIO...LIMITING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
THURSDAY. IN TURN...REDUCED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80F MOST AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A WARM
AND RAIN-FREE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT TIMING DIFFERENCES
OFFERED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TRANSLATE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POPS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY. A
FASTER FROPA WILL SUPPORT LOWER POPS...A GREATLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND A COOLING TREND STARTING SATURDAY. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BUT ADJUSTMENTS
COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO AT EITHER
SITE DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...WITH A REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF
TSRA NEAR KSAV TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL BE GUSTY
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE TIME WHEN
THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN SYNC WITH
PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NUDGE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE...AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR SC WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF A
35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INTERACTION
OF THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A TIGHT ENOUGH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF AMZ350 TO ALLOW FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS TO REACH NEAR OR PAST 25 KT...WITH EVEN SOME 6 FOOT SEAS. FOR
THESE REASONS WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE 2
BODIES OF WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM. THE OTHER WATERS WILL PEAK AT
15 OR 20 KT...SO NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT AFTERNOON T-STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GEORGIA WATERS EARLY ON...TAKING
WITH IT LINGERING CONVECTION AND REPLACED BY AN ANEMIC REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ONLY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AT BEST...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF SURGE OF SUB-SCA NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS SC WATERS TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ALL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE LAYER STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SURGE
OF SCA GUSTS AROUND 25 KT/SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT COULD OCCUR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A WEAKER GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO SUB-SCA WINDS
VEERING FROM E/SE TO S/SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT
MARGINAL SCA WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MARINE LAYER
STABILITY COULD AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER COLD FROPA
SATURDAY...EXPECT A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS APPEARS RATHER HIGH THIS WEEKEND.

ALSO OF NOTE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330-350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 301044
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
644 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE PESKY TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY
EAST/SE THROUGH THE MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST ZONES WILL LIE BETWEEN 2
SEPARATE JETS...BUT WE LOOK TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EACH ONE TO AID
IN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE FIRST UPPER JET IS ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SECOND IS STRONGER AND MOVES INTO ALABAMA....WESTERN GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE. WE/LL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE FIRST JET AND NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE SECOND. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO DEEP WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES...SOME AT LEAST A PART OF THAT CONVECTION UPSTREAM
WILL ERODE AS IT DRAWS CLOSER. BUT THERE IS AN INFLUX OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AND A SWATH OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH THAT IS
TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH AND NW SECTIONS...AND
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH AND SE
AREAS. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL
KEEP QPF DOWN UNDER 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH.

THERE REMAINS A RISK OF ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND WALTERBORO IN RESPONSE TO LIFTED INDICES
AS LOW AS -3 TO -5C...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH 500 TEMPS DOWN TO
MINUS 18 TO MINUS 20C AND WET BULBS UNDER 8K FT THERE MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE A RISK OF SMALL HAIL IF WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY
DEPTH TO THE CONVECTION. PLUS GIVEN PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WE
MIGHT ALSO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION...THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
WARM ADVECTION AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 7-8C. THAT ALONG WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A HUGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.
MAXIMUMS WILL HIT UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH...LOWER 70S CENTRAL
ZONES AND MAYBE A FEW MID 70S FAR SOUTH WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNT
OF INSOLATION WILL OCCUR. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WILL HOLD SOUTH
CAROLINA SHORELINE COMMUNITIES DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S...WHILE THE GEORGIA COAST WILL BE UP CLOSER TO 70 WITH LESS
FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EFFICIENT MIXING WILL TAP INTO A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AND WEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY...PEAKING AT 25 OR 30 MPH. WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. BUT
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WEST/SW WINDS PEAK AT 15-20 KT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH/SE OF THE AREA EARLY
ON..AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
REGION WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE
NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGINS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AND ALTHOUGH IT ARRIVE WITH SOME COOLER
AIR IT WON/T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE WARMER BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUS...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH WESTERLY 925-850 MB
WINDS...TURNING SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ISOLATED
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 80F CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...THIS FORECAST
MAINTAINS A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
FAR INLAND/SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS AS HIGH
AS 1.25 INCH AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK VORT EMBEDDED WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MODEL QPF...MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOST/ALL AREAS COULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
COULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER....STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
ALSO OF NOTE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD POOL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PROSPECTS TO A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE NO MOISTURE RETURN AND NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD EVEN WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN REDUCED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TRENDED FORECASTS TOWARD A DRIER
SCENARIO...LIMITING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
THURSDAY. IN TURN...REDUCED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80F MOST AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A WARM
AND RAIN-FREE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT TIMING DIFFERENCES
OFFERED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TRANSLATE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POPS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY. A
FASTER FROPA WILL SUPPORT LOWER POPS...A GREATLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND A COOLING TREND STARTING SATURDAY. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BUT ADJUSTMENTS
COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO AT EITHER
SITE DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...WITH A REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF
TSRA NEAR KSAV TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL BE GUSTY
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE TIME WHEN
THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN SYNC WITH
PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NUDGE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE...AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR SC WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF A
35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INTERACTION
OF THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A TIGHT ENOUGH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF AMZ350 TO ALLOW FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS TO REACH NEAR OR PAST 25 KT...WITH EVEN SOME 6 FOOT SEAS. FOR
THESE REASONS WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE 2
BODIES OF WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM. THE OTHER WATERS WILL PEAK AT
15 OR 20 KT...SO NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT AFTERNOON T-STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GEORGIA WATERS EARLY ON...TAKING
WITH IT LINGERING CONVECTION AND REPLACED BY AN ANEMIC REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ONLY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AT BEST...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF SURGE OF SUB-SCA NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS SC WATERS TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ALL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE LAYER STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SURGE
OF SCA GUSTS AROUND 25 KT/SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT COULD OCCUR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A WEAKER GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO SUB-SCA WINDS
VEERING FROM E/SE TO S/SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT
MARGINAL SCA WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MARINE LAYER
STABILITY COULD AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER COLD FROPA
SATURDAY...EXPECT A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS APPEARS RATHER HIGH THIS WEEKEND.

ALSO OF NOTE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330-350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 301044
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
644 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE PESKY TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY
EAST/SE THROUGH THE MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST ZONES WILL LIE BETWEEN 2
SEPARATE JETS...BUT WE LOOK TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EACH ONE TO AID
IN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE FIRST UPPER JET IS ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SECOND IS STRONGER AND MOVES INTO ALABAMA....WESTERN GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE. WE/LL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE FIRST JET AND NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE SECOND. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO DEEP WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES...SOME AT LEAST A PART OF THAT CONVECTION UPSTREAM
WILL ERODE AS IT DRAWS CLOSER. BUT THERE IS AN INFLUX OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AND A SWATH OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH THAT IS
TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH AND NW SECTIONS...AND
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH AND SE
AREAS. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL
KEEP QPF DOWN UNDER 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH.

THERE REMAINS A RISK OF ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND WALTERBORO IN RESPONSE TO LIFTED INDICES
AS LOW AS -3 TO -5C...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH 500 TEMPS DOWN TO
MINUS 18 TO MINUS 20C AND WET BULBS UNDER 8K FT THERE MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE A RISK OF SMALL HAIL IF WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY
DEPTH TO THE CONVECTION. PLUS GIVEN PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WE
MIGHT ALSO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION...THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
WARM ADVECTION AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 7-8C. THAT ALONG WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A HUGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.
MAXIMUMS WILL HIT UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH...LOWER 70S CENTRAL
ZONES AND MAYBE A FEW MID 70S FAR SOUTH WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNT
OF INSOLATION WILL OCCUR. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WILL HOLD SOUTH
CAROLINA SHORELINE COMMUNITIES DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S...WHILE THE GEORGIA COAST WILL BE UP CLOSER TO 70 WITH LESS
FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EFFICIENT MIXING WILL TAP INTO A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AND WEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY...PEAKING AT 25 OR 30 MPH. WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. BUT
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WEST/SW WINDS PEAK AT 15-20 KT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH/SE OF THE AREA EARLY
ON..AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
REGION WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE
NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGINS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AND ALTHOUGH IT ARRIVE WITH SOME COOLER
AIR IT WON/T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE WARMER BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUS...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH WESTERLY 925-850 MB
WINDS...TURNING SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ISOLATED
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 80F CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...THIS FORECAST
MAINTAINS A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
FAR INLAND/SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS AS HIGH
AS 1.25 INCH AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK VORT EMBEDDED WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MODEL QPF...MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOST/ALL AREAS COULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
COULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER....STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
ALSO OF NOTE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD POOL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PROSPECTS TO A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE NO MOISTURE RETURN AND NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD EVEN WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN REDUCED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TRENDED FORECASTS TOWARD A DRIER
SCENARIO...LIMITING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
THURSDAY. IN TURN...REDUCED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80F MOST AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A WARM
AND RAIN-FREE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT TIMING DIFFERENCES
OFFERED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TRANSLATE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POPS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY. A
FASTER FROPA WILL SUPPORT LOWER POPS...A GREATLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND A COOLING TREND STARTING SATURDAY. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BUT ADJUSTMENTS
COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO AT EITHER
SITE DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...WITH A REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF
TSRA NEAR KSAV TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL BE GUSTY
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE TIME WHEN
THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN SYNC WITH
PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NUDGE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE...AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR SC WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF A
35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INTERACTION
OF THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A TIGHT ENOUGH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF AMZ350 TO ALLOW FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS TO REACH NEAR OR PAST 25 KT...WITH EVEN SOME 6 FOOT SEAS. FOR
THESE REASONS WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE 2
BODIES OF WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM. THE OTHER WATERS WILL PEAK AT
15 OR 20 KT...SO NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT AFTERNOON T-STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GEORGIA WATERS EARLY ON...TAKING
WITH IT LINGERING CONVECTION AND REPLACED BY AN ANEMIC REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ONLY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AT BEST...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF SURGE OF SUB-SCA NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS SC WATERS TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ALL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE LAYER STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SURGE
OF SCA GUSTS AROUND 25 KT/SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT COULD OCCUR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A WEAKER GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO SUB-SCA WINDS
VEERING FROM E/SE TO S/SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT
MARGINAL SCA WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MARINE LAYER
STABILITY COULD AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER COLD FROPA
SATURDAY...EXPECT A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS APPEARS RATHER HIGH THIS WEEKEND.

ALSO OF NOTE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330-350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 301044
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
644 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE PESKY TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY
EAST/SE THROUGH THE MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST ZONES WILL LIE BETWEEN 2
SEPARATE JETS...BUT WE LOOK TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EACH ONE TO AID
IN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE FIRST UPPER JET IS ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SECOND IS STRONGER AND MOVES INTO ALABAMA....WESTERN GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE. WE/LL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE FIRST JET AND NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE SECOND. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO DEEP WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES...SOME AT LEAST A PART OF THAT CONVECTION UPSTREAM
WILL ERODE AS IT DRAWS CLOSER. BUT THERE IS AN INFLUX OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AND A SWATH OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH THAT IS
TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH AND NW SECTIONS...AND
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH AND SE
AREAS. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL
KEEP QPF DOWN UNDER 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH.

THERE REMAINS A RISK OF ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND WALTERBORO IN RESPONSE TO LIFTED INDICES
AS LOW AS -3 TO -5C...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH 500 TEMPS DOWN TO
MINUS 18 TO MINUS 20C AND WET BULBS UNDER 8K FT THERE MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE A RISK OF SMALL HAIL IF WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY
DEPTH TO THE CONVECTION. PLUS GIVEN PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WE
MIGHT ALSO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION...THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
WARM ADVECTION AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 7-8C. THAT ALONG WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A HUGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.
MAXIMUMS WILL HIT UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH...LOWER 70S CENTRAL
ZONES AND MAYBE A FEW MID 70S FAR SOUTH WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNT
OF INSOLATION WILL OCCUR. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WILL HOLD SOUTH
CAROLINA SHORELINE COMMUNITIES DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S...WHILE THE GEORGIA COAST WILL BE UP CLOSER TO 70 WITH LESS
FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EFFICIENT MIXING WILL TAP INTO A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AND WEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY...PEAKING AT 25 OR 30 MPH. WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. BUT
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WEST/SW WINDS PEAK AT 15-20 KT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH/SE OF THE AREA EARLY
ON..AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
REGION WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE
NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGINS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AND ALTHOUGH IT ARRIVE WITH SOME COOLER
AIR IT WON/T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE WARMER BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUS...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH WESTERLY 925-850 MB
WINDS...TURNING SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ISOLATED
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 80F CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...THIS FORECAST
MAINTAINS A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
FAR INLAND/SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS AS HIGH
AS 1.25 INCH AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK VORT EMBEDDED WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MODEL QPF...MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOST/ALL AREAS COULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
COULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER....STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
ALSO OF NOTE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD POOL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PROSPECTS TO A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE NO MOISTURE RETURN AND NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD EVEN WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN REDUCED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TRENDED FORECASTS TOWARD A DRIER
SCENARIO...LIMITING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
THURSDAY. IN TURN...REDUCED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80F MOST AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A WARM
AND RAIN-FREE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT TIMING DIFFERENCES
OFFERED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TRANSLATE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POPS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY. A
FASTER FROPA WILL SUPPORT LOWER POPS...A GREATLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND A COOLING TREND STARTING SATURDAY. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BUT ADJUSTMENTS
COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO AT EITHER
SITE DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...WITH A REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF
TSRA NEAR KSAV TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL BE GUSTY
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE TIME WHEN
THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN SYNC WITH
PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NUDGE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE...AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR SC WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF A
35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INTERACTION
OF THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A TIGHT ENOUGH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF AMZ350 TO ALLOW FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS TO REACH NEAR OR PAST 25 KT...WITH EVEN SOME 6 FOOT SEAS. FOR
THESE REASONS WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE 2
BODIES OF WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM. THE OTHER WATERS WILL PEAK AT
15 OR 20 KT...SO NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT AFTERNOON T-STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GEORGIA WATERS EARLY ON...TAKING
WITH IT LINGERING CONVECTION AND REPLACED BY AN ANEMIC REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ONLY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AT BEST...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF SURGE OF SUB-SCA NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS SC WATERS TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ALL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE LAYER STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SURGE
OF SCA GUSTS AROUND 25 KT/SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT COULD OCCUR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A WEAKER GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO SUB-SCA WINDS
VEERING FROM E/SE TO S/SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT
MARGINAL SCA WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MARINE LAYER
STABILITY COULD AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER COLD FROPA
SATURDAY...EXPECT A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS APPEARS RATHER HIGH THIS WEEKEND.

ALSO OF NOTE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330-350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 300905
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
505 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL OCCUR MAINLY THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF AN H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY EARLY TODAY.
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SHOWERS IN THE WEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND IN THE EAST PART LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE LESS
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
INTO THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM. THESE TRENDS PLUS THE DIURNAL TIMING FAVORS
SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON A RELATIVELY WARM START AND EXPECTED
AFTERNOON SUN WITH A WESTERLY AND SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY A PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE HAVE POPS 20
PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF DISPLAYS
THIS MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH. KEPT JUST A SMALL POP IN THE SOUTH PART WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST SHOULD CIRCULATE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS
MOISTURE PLUS ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS
INDICATED GREATER MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LESS
OF A SHOWER CHANCE.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCE MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO HELP CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE INDICATING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
DRYING SATURDAY. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH A DRY PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA IN THE TAFS WITH
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD
AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO EAST FROPA
ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300905
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
505 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL OCCUR MAINLY THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF AN H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY EARLY TODAY.
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SHOWERS IN THE WEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND IN THE EAST PART LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE LESS
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
INTO THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM. THESE TRENDS PLUS THE DIURNAL TIMING FAVORS
SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON A RELATIVELY WARM START AND EXPECTED
AFTERNOON SUN WITH A WESTERLY AND SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY A PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE HAVE POPS 20
PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF DISPLAYS
THIS MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH. KEPT JUST A SMALL POP IN THE SOUTH PART WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST SHOULD CIRCULATE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS
MOISTURE PLUS ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS
INDICATED GREATER MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LESS
OF A SHOWER CHANCE.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCE MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO HELP CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE INDICATING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
DRYING SATURDAY. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH A DRY PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA IN THE TAFS WITH
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD
AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO EAST FROPA
ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 300837
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
437 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR MANY
INLAND LOCATIONS TO FALL TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...WITH EVEN A
FEW POCKETS OF NEAR 32F. THIS IN TURN HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FROST TO
OCCUR OVER MANY INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

FOR TODAY...THE PESKY TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE TN VALLEY WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY EAST/SE THROUGH
THE MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST ZONES WILL LIE BETWEEN 2 SEPARATE
JETS...BUT WE LOOK TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EACH ONE TO AID IN LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE FIRST UPPER JET IS ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SECOND IS
STRONGER AND MOVES INTO ALABAMA....WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE. WE/LL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE FIRST JET AND NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE SECOND. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO DEEP WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES. BUT THERE IS AN INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND A
SWATH OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH THAT IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER NORTH AND NW SECTIONS...AND DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH AND SE AREAS. THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL KEEP QPF
DOWN UNDER 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH.

THERE REMAINS A RISK OF ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND WALTERBORO IN RESPONSE TO LIFTED INDICES
AS LOW AS -3 TO -5C...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH 500 TEMPS DOWN TO
MINUS 18 TO MINUS 20C AND WET BULBS UNDER 8K FT THERE MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE A RISK OF SMALL HAIL IF WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY
DEPTH TO THE CONVECTION. PLUS GIVEN PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WE
MIGHT ALSO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION...THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
WARM ADVECTION AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 7-8C. THAT ALONG WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A HUGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.
MAXIMUMS WILL HIT UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH...LOWER 70S CENTRAL
ZONES AND MAYBE A FEW MID 70S FAR SOUTH WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNT
OF INSOLATION WILL OCCUR. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WILL HOLD SOUTH
CAROLINA SHORELINE COMMUNITIES DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S...WHILE THE GEORGIA COAST WILL BE UP CLOSER TO 70 WITH LESS
FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EFFICIENT MIXING WILL TAP INTO A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AND WEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY...PEAKING AT 25 OR 30 MPH. WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. BUT
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WEST/SW WINDS PEAK AT 15-20 KT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH/SE OF THE AREA EARLY
ON..AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
REGION WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE
NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGINS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AND ALTHOUGH IT ARRIVE WITH SOME COOLER
AIR IT WON/T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE WARMER BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUS...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH WESTERLY 925-850 MB
WINDS...TURNING SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ISOLATED
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 80F CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...THIS FORECAST
MAINTAINS A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
FAR INLAND/SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS AS HIGH
AS 1.25 INCH AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK VORT EMBEDDED WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MODEL QPF...MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOST/ALL AREAS COULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
COULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER....STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
ALSO OF NOTE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD POOL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PROSPECTS TO A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE NO MOISTURE RETURN AND NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD EVEN WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN REDUCED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TRENDED FORECASTS TOWARD A DRIER
SCENARIO...LIMITING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
THURSDAY. IN TURN...REDUCED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80F MOST AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A WARM
AND RAIN-FREE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT TIMING DIFFERENCES
OFFERED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TRANSLATE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POPS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY. A
FASTER FROPA WILL SUPPORT LOWER POPS...A GREATLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND A COOLING TREND STARTING SATURDAY. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BUT ADJUSTMENTS
COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO AT EITHER
SITE DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...WITH A REMOTE POSSIBILITY
OF TSRA NEAR KSAV TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL BE
GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE
TIME WHEN THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN
SYNC WITH PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NUDGE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE...AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR SC WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF A
35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INTERACTION
OF THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A TIGHT ENOUGH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF AMZ350 TO ALLOW FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS TO REACH NEAR OR PAST 25 KT...WITH EVEN SOME 6 FOOT SEAS. FOR
THESE REASONS WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE 2
BODIES OF WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM. THE OTHER WATERS WILL PEAK AT
15 OR 20 KT...SO NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT AFTERNOON T-STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GEORGIA WATERS EARLY ON...TAKING
WITH IT LINGERING CONVECTION AND REPLACED BY AN ANEMIC REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ONLY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AT BEST...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF SURGE OF SUB-SCA NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS SC WATERS TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ALL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE LAYER STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SURGE
OF SCA GUSTS AROUND 25 KT/SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT COULD OCCUR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A WEAKER GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO SUB-SCA WINDS
VEERING FROM E/SE TO S/SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT
MARGINAL SCA WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MARINE LAYER
STABILITY COULD AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER COLD FROPA
SATURDAY...EXPECT A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS APPEARS RATHER HIGH THIS WEEKEND.

ALSO OF NOTE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330-350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 300837
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
437 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR MANY
INLAND LOCATIONS TO FALL TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...WITH EVEN A
FEW POCKETS OF NEAR 32F. THIS IN TURN HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FROST TO
OCCUR OVER MANY INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

FOR TODAY...THE PESKY TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE TN VALLEY WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY EAST/SE THROUGH
THE MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST ZONES WILL LIE BETWEEN 2 SEPARATE
JETS...BUT WE LOOK TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EACH ONE TO AID IN LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE FIRST UPPER JET IS ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SECOND IS
STRONGER AND MOVES INTO ALABAMA....WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE. WE/LL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE FIRST JET AND NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE SECOND. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO DEEP WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES. BUT THERE IS AN INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND A
SWATH OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH THAT IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER NORTH AND NW SECTIONS...AND DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH AND SE AREAS. THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL KEEP QPF
DOWN UNDER 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH.

THERE REMAINS A RISK OF ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND WALTERBORO IN RESPONSE TO LIFTED INDICES
AS LOW AS -3 TO -5C...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH 500 TEMPS DOWN TO
MINUS 18 TO MINUS 20C AND WET BULBS UNDER 8K FT THERE MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE A RISK OF SMALL HAIL IF WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY
DEPTH TO THE CONVECTION. PLUS GIVEN PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WE
MIGHT ALSO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION...THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
WARM ADVECTION AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 7-8C. THAT ALONG WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A HUGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.
MAXIMUMS WILL HIT UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH...LOWER 70S CENTRAL
ZONES AND MAYBE A FEW MID 70S FAR SOUTH WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNT
OF INSOLATION WILL OCCUR. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WILL HOLD SOUTH
CAROLINA SHORELINE COMMUNITIES DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S...WHILE THE GEORGIA COAST WILL BE UP CLOSER TO 70 WITH LESS
FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EFFICIENT MIXING WILL TAP INTO A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AND WEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY...PEAKING AT 25 OR 30 MPH. WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. BUT
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WEST/SW WINDS PEAK AT 15-20 KT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH/SE OF THE AREA EARLY
ON..AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
REGION WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE
NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGINS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AND ALTHOUGH IT ARRIVE WITH SOME COOLER
AIR IT WON/T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE WARMER BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUS...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH WESTERLY 925-850 MB
WINDS...TURNING SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ISOLATED
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 80F CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...THIS FORECAST
MAINTAINS A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
FAR INLAND/SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS AS HIGH
AS 1.25 INCH AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK VORT EMBEDDED WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MODEL QPF...MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOST/ALL AREAS COULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
COULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER....STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
ALSO OF NOTE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD POOL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PROSPECTS TO A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE NO MOISTURE RETURN AND NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD EVEN WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN REDUCED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TRENDED FORECASTS TOWARD A DRIER
SCENARIO...LIMITING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
THURSDAY. IN TURN...REDUCED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80F MOST AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A WARM
AND RAIN-FREE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT TIMING DIFFERENCES
OFFERED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TRANSLATE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POPS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY. A
FASTER FROPA WILL SUPPORT LOWER POPS...A GREATLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND A COOLING TREND STARTING SATURDAY. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BUT ADJUSTMENTS
COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO AT EITHER
SITE DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...WITH A REMOTE POSSIBILITY
OF TSRA NEAR KSAV TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL BE
GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE
TIME WHEN THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN
SYNC WITH PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NUDGE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE...AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR SC WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF A
35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INTERACTION
OF THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A TIGHT ENOUGH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF AMZ350 TO ALLOW FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS TO REACH NEAR OR PAST 25 KT...WITH EVEN SOME 6 FOOT SEAS. FOR
THESE REASONS WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE 2
BODIES OF WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM. THE OTHER WATERS WILL PEAK AT
15 OR 20 KT...SO NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT AFTERNOON T-STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GEORGIA WATERS EARLY ON...TAKING
WITH IT LINGERING CONVECTION AND REPLACED BY AN ANEMIC REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ONLY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AT BEST...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF SURGE OF SUB-SCA NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS SC WATERS TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ALL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE LAYER STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SURGE
OF SCA GUSTS AROUND 25 KT/SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT COULD OCCUR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A WEAKER GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO SUB-SCA WINDS
VEERING FROM E/SE TO S/SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT
MARGINAL SCA WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MARINE LAYER
STABILITY COULD AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER COLD FROPA
SATURDAY...EXPECT A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS APPEARS RATHER HIGH THIS WEEKEND.

ALSO OF NOTE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330-350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KFFC 300829
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.

THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
FROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING
INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY MUCH IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BACK OVER MS. SUSPECT THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORCING THE CONVECTION. SURFACE INSTABILITY
DOES WANE QUITE A BIT ACROSS GA...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER OR TWO. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS BEFORE
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  75  53 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  55 /  70   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  68  46 /  50   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  74  52 /  70   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  78  58 /  50  10  30  30
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  70   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  78  56 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  73  50 /  50   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  54 /  60   5  30  30
VIDALIA         72  50  78  59 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA



000
FXUS62 KFFC 300829
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.

THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
FROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING
INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY MUCH IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BACK OVER MS. SUSPECT THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORCING THE CONVECTION. SURFACE INSTABILITY
DOES WANE QUITE A BIT ACROSS GA...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER OR TWO. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS BEFORE
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  75  53 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  55 /  70   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  68  46 /  50   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  74  52 /  70   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  78  58 /  50  10  30  30
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  70   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  78  56 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  73  50 /  50   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  54 /  60   5  30  30
VIDALIA         72  50  78  59 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA




000
FXUS62 KFFC 300829
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.

THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
FROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING
INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY MUCH IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BACK OVER MS. SUSPECT THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORCING THE CONVECTION. SURFACE INSTABILITY
DOES WANE QUITE A BIT ACROSS GA...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER OR TWO. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS BEFORE
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  75  53 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  55 /  70   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  68  46 /  50   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  74  52 /  70   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  78  58 /  50  10  30  30
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  70   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  78  56 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  73  50 /  50   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  54 /  60   5  30  30
VIDALIA         72  50  78  59 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA



000
FXUS62 KFFC 300829
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.

THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
FROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING
INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY MUCH IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BACK OVER MS. SUSPECT THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORCING THE CONVECTION. SURFACE INSTABILITY
DOES WANE QUITE A BIT ACROSS GA...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER OR TWO. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS BEFORE
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  75  53 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  55 /  70   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  68  46 /  50   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  74  52 /  70   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  78  58 /  50  10  30  30
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  70   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  78  56 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  73  50 /  50   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  54 /  60   5  30  30
VIDALIA         72  50  78  59 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA




000
FXUS62 KCHS 300816
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR MANY
INLAND LOCATIONS TO FALL TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...WITH EVEN A
FEW POCKETS OF NEAR 32F. THIS IN TURN HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FROST TO
OCCUR OVER MANY INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

FOR TODAY...THE PESKY TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE TN VALLEY WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY EAST/SE THROUGH
THE MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST ZONES WILL LIE BETWEEN 2 SEPARATE
JETS...BUT WE LOOK TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EACH ONE TO AID IN LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE FIRST UPPER JET IS ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SECOND IS
STRONGER AND MOVES INTO ALABAMA....WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE. WE/LL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE FIRST JET AND NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE SECOND. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO DEEP WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES. BUT THERE IS AN INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND A
SWATH OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH THAT IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER NORTH AND NW SECTIONS...AND DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH AND SE AREAS. THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL KEEP QPF
DOWN UNDER 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH.

THERE REMAINS A RISK OF ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND WALTERBORO IN RESPONSE TO LIFTED INDICES
AS LOW AS -3 TO -5C...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH 500 TEMPS DOWN TO
MINUS 18 TO MINUS 20C AND WET BULBS UNDER 8K FT THERE MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE A RISK OF SMALL HAIL IF WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY
DEPTH TO THE CONVECTION. PLUS GIVEN PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WE
MIGHT ALSO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION...THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
WARM ADVECTION AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 7-8C. THAT ALONG WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A HUGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.
MAXIMUMS WILL HIT UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH...LOWER 70S CENTRAL
ZONES AND MAYBE A FEW MID 70S FAR SOUTH. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
WILL HOLD SOUTH CAROLINA SHORELINE COMMUNITIES DOWN IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S...WHILE THE GEORGIA COAST WILL BE UP CLOSER TO 70
WITH LESS FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EFFICIENT MIXING WILL TAP INTO A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AND WEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY...PEAKING AT 25 OR 30 MPH. WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. BUT
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WEST/SW WINDS PEAK AT 15-20 KT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH/SE OF THE AREA EARLY
ON..AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
REGION WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE
NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGINS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AND ALTHOUGH IT ARRIVE WITH SOME COOLER
AIR IT WON/T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE WARMER BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUS...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH WESTERLY 925-850 MB
WINDS...TURNING SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ISOLATED
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 80F CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...THIS FORECAST
MAINTAINS A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
FAR INLAND/SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS AS HIGH
AS 1.25 INCH AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK VORT EMBEDDED WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MODEL QPF...MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOST/ALL AREAS COULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
COULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER....STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
ALSO OF NOTE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD POOL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PROSPECTS TO A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE NO MOISTURE RETURN AND NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD EVEN WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN REDUCED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TRENDED FORECASTS TOWARD A DRIER
SCENARIO...LIMITING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
THURSDAY. IN TURN...REDUCED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80F MOST AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A WARM
AND RAIN-FREE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT TIMING DIFFERENCES
OFFERED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TRANSLATE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POPS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY. A
FASTER FROPA WILL SUPPORT LOWER POPS...A GREATLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND A COOLING TREND STARTING SATURDAY. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BUT ADJUSTMENTS
COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO AT EITHER
SITE DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...WITH A REMOTE POSSIBILITY
OF TSRA NEAR KSAV TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL BE
GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE
TIME WHEN THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN
SYNC WITH PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NUDGE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE...AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR SC WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF A
35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INTERACTION
OF THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A TIGHT ENOUGH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF AMZ350 TO ALLOW FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS TO REACH NEAR OR PAST 25 KT...WITH EVEN SOME 6 FOOT SEAS. FOR
THESE REASONS WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE 2
BODIES OF WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM. THE OTHER WATERS WILL PEAK AT
15 OR 20 KT...SO NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT AFTERNOON T-STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GEORGIA WATERS EARLY ON...TAKING
WITH IT LINGERING CONVECTION AND REPLACED BY AN ANEMIC REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ONLY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AT BEST...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF SURGE OF SUB-SCA NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS SC WATERS TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ALL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE LAYER STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SURGE
OF SCA GUSTS AROUND 25 KT/SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT COULD OCCUR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A WEAKER GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO SUB-SCA WINDS
VEERING FROM E/SE TO S/SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT
MARGINAL SCA WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MARINE LAYER
STABILITY COULD AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER COLD FROPA
SATURDAY...EXPECT A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS APPEARS RATHER HIGH THIS WEEKEND.

ALSO OF NOTE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330-350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 300816
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR MANY
INLAND LOCATIONS TO FALL TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...WITH EVEN A
FEW POCKETS OF NEAR 32F. THIS IN TURN HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FROST TO
OCCUR OVER MANY INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

FOR TODAY...THE PESKY TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE TN VALLEY WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY EAST/SE THROUGH
THE MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST ZONES WILL LIE BETWEEN 2 SEPARATE
JETS...BUT WE LOOK TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EACH ONE TO AID IN LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE FIRST UPPER JET IS ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SECOND IS
STRONGER AND MOVES INTO ALABAMA....WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE. WE/LL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE FIRST JET AND NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE SECOND. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO DEEP WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES. BUT THERE IS AN INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND A
SWATH OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH THAT IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER NORTH AND NW SECTIONS...AND DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH AND SE AREAS. THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL KEEP QPF
DOWN UNDER 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH.

THERE REMAINS A RISK OF ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND WALTERBORO IN RESPONSE TO LIFTED INDICES
AS LOW AS -3 TO -5C...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH 500 TEMPS DOWN TO
MINUS 18 TO MINUS 20C AND WET BULBS UNDER 8K FT THERE MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE A RISK OF SMALL HAIL IF WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY
DEPTH TO THE CONVECTION. PLUS GIVEN PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WE
MIGHT ALSO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION...THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
WARM ADVECTION AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 7-8C. THAT ALONG WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A HUGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.
MAXIMUMS WILL HIT UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH...LOWER 70S CENTRAL
ZONES AND MAYBE A FEW MID 70S FAR SOUTH. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
WILL HOLD SOUTH CAROLINA SHORELINE COMMUNITIES DOWN IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S...WHILE THE GEORGIA COAST WILL BE UP CLOSER TO 70
WITH LESS FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EFFICIENT MIXING WILL TAP INTO A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AND WEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY...PEAKING AT 25 OR 30 MPH. WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. BUT
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WEST/SW WINDS PEAK AT 15-20 KT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH/SE OF THE AREA EARLY
ON..AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
REGION WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE
NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGINS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AND ALTHOUGH IT ARRIVE WITH SOME COOLER
AIR IT WON/T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE WARMER BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUS...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH WESTERLY 925-850 MB
WINDS...TURNING SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ISOLATED
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 80F CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...THIS FORECAST
MAINTAINS A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
FAR INLAND/SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS AS HIGH
AS 1.25 INCH AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK VORT EMBEDDED WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MODEL QPF...MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOST/ALL AREAS COULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
COULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER....STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
ALSO OF NOTE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD POOL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PROSPECTS TO A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE NO MOISTURE RETURN AND NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD EVEN WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN REDUCED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TRENDED FORECASTS TOWARD A DRIER
SCENARIO...LIMITING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
THURSDAY. IN TURN...REDUCED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80F MOST AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A WARM
AND RAIN-FREE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT TIMING DIFFERENCES
OFFERED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TRANSLATE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POPS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY. A
FASTER FROPA WILL SUPPORT LOWER POPS...A GREATLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND A COOLING TREND STARTING SATURDAY. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BUT ADJUSTMENTS
COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO AT EITHER
SITE DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...WITH A REMOTE POSSIBILITY
OF TSRA NEAR KSAV TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL BE
GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE
TIME WHEN THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN
SYNC WITH PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NUDGE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE...AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR SC WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF A
35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INTERACTION
OF THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A TIGHT ENOUGH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF AMZ350 TO ALLOW FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS TO REACH NEAR OR PAST 25 KT...WITH EVEN SOME 6 FOOT SEAS. FOR
THESE REASONS WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE 2
BODIES OF WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM. THE OTHER WATERS WILL PEAK AT
15 OR 20 KT...SO NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT AFTERNOON T-STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GEORGIA WATERS EARLY ON...TAKING
WITH IT LINGERING CONVECTION AND REPLACED BY AN ANEMIC REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ONLY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AT BEST...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF SURGE OF SUB-SCA NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS SC WATERS TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ALL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE LAYER STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SURGE
OF SCA GUSTS AROUND 25 KT/SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT COULD OCCUR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A WEAKER GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO SUB-SCA WINDS
VEERING FROM E/SE TO S/SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT
MARGINAL SCA WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MARINE LAYER
STABILITY COULD AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER COLD FROPA
SATURDAY...EXPECT A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS APPEARS RATHER HIGH THIS WEEKEND.

ALSO OF NOTE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330-350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 300816
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR MANY
INLAND LOCATIONS TO FALL TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...WITH EVEN A
FEW POCKETS OF NEAR 32F. THIS IN TURN HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FROST TO
OCCUR OVER MANY INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

FOR TODAY...THE PESKY TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE TN VALLEY WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY EAST/SE THROUGH
THE MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST ZONES WILL LIE BETWEEN 2 SEPARATE
JETS...BUT WE LOOK TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EACH ONE TO AID IN LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE FIRST UPPER JET IS ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SECOND IS
STRONGER AND MOVES INTO ALABAMA....WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE. WE/LL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE FIRST JET AND NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE SECOND. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO DEEP WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES. BUT THERE IS AN INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND A
SWATH OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH THAT IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER NORTH AND NW SECTIONS...AND DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH AND SE AREAS. THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL KEEP QPF
DOWN UNDER 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH.

THERE REMAINS A RISK OF ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND WALTERBORO IN RESPONSE TO LIFTED INDICES
AS LOW AS -3 TO -5C...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH 500 TEMPS DOWN TO
MINUS 18 TO MINUS 20C AND WET BULBS UNDER 8K FT THERE MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE A RISK OF SMALL HAIL IF WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY
DEPTH TO THE CONVECTION. PLUS GIVEN PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WE
MIGHT ALSO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION...THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
WARM ADVECTION AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 7-8C. THAT ALONG WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A HUGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.
MAXIMUMS WILL HIT UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH...LOWER 70S CENTRAL
ZONES AND MAYBE A FEW MID 70S FAR SOUTH. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
WILL HOLD SOUTH CAROLINA SHORELINE COMMUNITIES DOWN IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S...WHILE THE GEORGIA COAST WILL BE UP CLOSER TO 70
WITH LESS FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EFFICIENT MIXING WILL TAP INTO A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AND WEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY...PEAKING AT 25 OR 30 MPH. WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. BUT
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WEST/SW WINDS PEAK AT 15-20 KT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH/SE OF THE AREA EARLY
ON..AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
REGION WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE
NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGINS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AND ALTHOUGH IT ARRIVE WITH SOME COOLER
AIR IT WON/T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE WARMER BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUS...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH WESTERLY 925-850 MB
WINDS...TURNING SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ISOLATED
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 80F CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...THIS FORECAST
MAINTAINS A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
FAR INLAND/SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS AS HIGH
AS 1.25 INCH AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK VORT EMBEDDED WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MODEL QPF...MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOST/ALL AREAS COULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
COULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER....STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
ALSO OF NOTE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD POOL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PROSPECTS TO A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE NO MOISTURE RETURN AND NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD EVEN WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN REDUCED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TRENDED FORECASTS TOWARD A DRIER
SCENARIO...LIMITING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
THURSDAY. IN TURN...REDUCED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80F MOST AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A WARM
AND RAIN-FREE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT TIMING DIFFERENCES
OFFERED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TRANSLATE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POPS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY. A
FASTER FROPA WILL SUPPORT LOWER POPS...A GREATLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND A COOLING TREND STARTING SATURDAY. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BUT ADJUSTMENTS
COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO AT EITHER
SITE DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...WITH A REMOTE POSSIBILITY
OF TSRA NEAR KSAV TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL BE
GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE
TIME WHEN THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN
SYNC WITH PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NUDGE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE...AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR SC WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF A
35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INTERACTION
OF THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A TIGHT ENOUGH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF AMZ350 TO ALLOW FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS TO REACH NEAR OR PAST 25 KT...WITH EVEN SOME 6 FOOT SEAS. FOR
THESE REASONS WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE 2
BODIES OF WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM. THE OTHER WATERS WILL PEAK AT
15 OR 20 KT...SO NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT AFTERNOON T-STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GEORGIA WATERS EARLY ON...TAKING
WITH IT LINGERING CONVECTION AND REPLACED BY AN ANEMIC REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ONLY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AT BEST...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF SURGE OF SUB-SCA NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS SC WATERS TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ALL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE LAYER STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SURGE
OF SCA GUSTS AROUND 25 KT/SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT COULD OCCUR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A WEAKER GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO SUB-SCA WINDS
VEERING FROM E/SE TO S/SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT
MARGINAL SCA WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MARINE LAYER
STABILITY COULD AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER COLD FROPA
SATURDAY...EXPECT A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS APPEARS RATHER HIGH THIS WEEKEND.

ALSO OF NOTE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330-350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 300816
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR MANY
INLAND LOCATIONS TO FALL TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...WITH EVEN A
FEW POCKETS OF NEAR 32F. THIS IN TURN HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FROST TO
OCCUR OVER MANY INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

FOR TODAY...THE PESKY TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE TN VALLEY WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY EAST/SE THROUGH
THE MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST ZONES WILL LIE BETWEEN 2 SEPARATE
JETS...BUT WE LOOK TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EACH ONE TO AID IN LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE FIRST UPPER JET IS ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SECOND IS
STRONGER AND MOVES INTO ALABAMA....WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE. WE/LL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE FIRST JET AND NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE SECOND. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO DEEP WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES. BUT THERE IS AN INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND A
SWATH OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH THAT IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER NORTH AND NW SECTIONS...AND DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH AND SE AREAS. THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL KEEP QPF
DOWN UNDER 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH.

THERE REMAINS A RISK OF ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND WALTERBORO IN RESPONSE TO LIFTED INDICES
AS LOW AS -3 TO -5C...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH 500 TEMPS DOWN TO
MINUS 18 TO MINUS 20C AND WET BULBS UNDER 8K FT THERE MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE A RISK OF SMALL HAIL IF WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY
DEPTH TO THE CONVECTION. PLUS GIVEN PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WE
MIGHT ALSO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION...THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
WARM ADVECTION AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 7-8C. THAT ALONG WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A HUGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.
MAXIMUMS WILL HIT UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH...LOWER 70S CENTRAL
ZONES AND MAYBE A FEW MID 70S FAR SOUTH. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
WILL HOLD SOUTH CAROLINA SHORELINE COMMUNITIES DOWN IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S...WHILE THE GEORGIA COAST WILL BE UP CLOSER TO 70
WITH LESS FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EFFICIENT MIXING WILL TAP INTO A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AND WEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY...PEAKING AT 25 OR 30 MPH. WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. BUT
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WEST/SW WINDS PEAK AT 15-20 KT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH/SE OF THE AREA EARLY
ON..AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
REGION WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE
NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGINS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AND ALTHOUGH IT ARRIVE WITH SOME COOLER
AIR IT WON/T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE WARMER BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUS...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH WESTERLY 925-850 MB
WINDS...TURNING SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ISOLATED
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 80F CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...THIS FORECAST
MAINTAINS A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
FAR INLAND/SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS AS HIGH
AS 1.25 INCH AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK VORT EMBEDDED WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MODEL QPF...MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOST/ALL AREAS COULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
COULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER....STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
ALSO OF NOTE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD POOL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PROSPECTS TO A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE NO MOISTURE RETURN AND NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD EVEN WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN REDUCED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TRENDED FORECASTS TOWARD A DRIER
SCENARIO...LIMITING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
THURSDAY. IN TURN...REDUCED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80F MOST AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A WARM
AND RAIN-FREE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT TIMING DIFFERENCES
OFFERED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TRANSLATE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POPS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY. A
FASTER FROPA WILL SUPPORT LOWER POPS...A GREATLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND A COOLING TREND STARTING SATURDAY. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BUT ADJUSTMENTS
COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO AT EITHER
SITE DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...WITH A REMOTE POSSIBILITY
OF TSRA NEAR KSAV TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL BE
GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE
TIME WHEN THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN
SYNC WITH PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NUDGE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE...AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR SC WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF A
35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INTERACTION
OF THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A TIGHT ENOUGH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF AMZ350 TO ALLOW FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS TO REACH NEAR OR PAST 25 KT...WITH EVEN SOME 6 FOOT SEAS. FOR
THESE REASONS WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE 2
BODIES OF WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM. THE OTHER WATERS WILL PEAK AT
15 OR 20 KT...SO NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT AFTERNOON T-STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GEORGIA WATERS EARLY ON...TAKING
WITH IT LINGERING CONVECTION AND REPLACED BY AN ANEMIC REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ONLY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AT BEST...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF SURGE OF SUB-SCA NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS SC WATERS TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ALL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE LAYER STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SURGE
OF SCA GUSTS AROUND 25 KT/SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT COULD OCCUR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A WEAKER GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO SUB-SCA WINDS
VEERING FROM E/SE TO S/SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT
MARGINAL SCA WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MARINE LAYER
STABILITY COULD AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER COLD FROPA
SATURDAY...EXPECT A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS APPEARS RATHER HIGH THIS WEEKEND.

ALSO OF NOTE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330-350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 300816
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR MANY
INLAND LOCATIONS TO FALL TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...WITH EVEN A
FEW POCKETS OF NEAR 32F. THIS IN TURN HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FROST TO
OCCUR OVER MANY INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

FOR TODAY...THE PESKY TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE TN VALLEY WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY EAST/SE THROUGH
THE MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST ZONES WILL LIE BETWEEN 2 SEPARATE
JETS...BUT WE LOOK TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EACH ONE TO AID IN LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE FIRST UPPER JET IS ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SECOND IS
STRONGER AND MOVES INTO ALABAMA....WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE. WE/LL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE FIRST JET AND NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE SECOND. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO DEEP WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES. BUT THERE IS AN INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND A
SWATH OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH THAT IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER NORTH AND NW SECTIONS...AND DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH AND SE AREAS. THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL KEEP QPF
DOWN UNDER 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH.

THERE REMAINS A RISK OF ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND WALTERBORO IN RESPONSE TO LIFTED INDICES
AS LOW AS -3 TO -5C...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH 500 TEMPS DOWN TO
MINUS 18 TO MINUS 20C AND WET BULBS UNDER 8K FT THERE MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE A RISK OF SMALL HAIL IF WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY
DEPTH TO THE CONVECTION. PLUS GIVEN PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WE
MIGHT ALSO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION...THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
WARM ADVECTION AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 7-8C. THAT ALONG WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A HUGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.
MAXIMUMS WILL HIT UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH...LOWER 70S CENTRAL
ZONES AND MAYBE A FEW MID 70S FAR SOUTH. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
WILL HOLD SOUTH CAROLINA SHORELINE COMMUNITIES DOWN IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S...WHILE THE GEORGIA COAST WILL BE UP CLOSER TO 70
WITH LESS FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EFFICIENT MIXING WILL TAP INTO A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AND WEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY...PEAKING AT 25 OR 30 MPH. WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. BUT
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WEST/SW WINDS PEAK AT 15-20 KT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH/SE OF THE AREA EARLY
ON..AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
REGION WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE
NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGINS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AND ALTHOUGH IT ARRIVE WITH SOME COOLER
AIR IT WON/T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE WARMER BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUS...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH WESTERLY 925-850 MB
WINDS...TURNING SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ISOLATED
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 80F CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...THIS FORECAST
MAINTAINS A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
FAR INLAND/SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS AS HIGH
AS 1.25 INCH AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK VORT EMBEDDED WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MODEL QPF...MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOST/ALL AREAS COULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
COULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER....STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
ALSO OF NOTE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD POOL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PROSPECTS TO A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE NO MOISTURE RETURN AND NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD EVEN WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN REDUCED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TRENDED FORECASTS TOWARD A DRIER
SCENARIO...LIMITING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
THURSDAY. IN TURN...REDUCED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80F MOST AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A WARM
AND RAIN-FREE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT TIMING DIFFERENCES
OFFERED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TRANSLATE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POPS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY. A
FASTER FROPA WILL SUPPORT LOWER POPS...A GREATLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND A COOLING TREND STARTING SATURDAY. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BUT ADJUSTMENTS
COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO AT EITHER
SITE DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...WITH A REMOTE POSSIBILITY
OF TSRA NEAR KSAV TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL BE
GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE
TIME WHEN THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN
SYNC WITH PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NUDGE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE...AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR SC WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF A
35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INTERACTION
OF THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A TIGHT ENOUGH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF AMZ350 TO ALLOW FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS TO REACH NEAR OR PAST 25 KT...WITH EVEN SOME 6 FOOT SEAS. FOR
THESE REASONS WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE 2
BODIES OF WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM. THE OTHER WATERS WILL PEAK AT
15 OR 20 KT...SO NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT AFTERNOON T-STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GEORGIA WATERS EARLY ON...TAKING
WITH IT LINGERING CONVECTION AND REPLACED BY AN ANEMIC REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ONLY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AT BEST...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF SURGE OF SUB-SCA NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS SC WATERS TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ALL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE LAYER STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SURGE
OF SCA GUSTS AROUND 25 KT/SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT COULD OCCUR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A WEAKER GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO SUB-SCA WINDS
VEERING FROM E/SE TO S/SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT
MARGINAL SCA WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MARINE LAYER
STABILITY COULD AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER COLD FROPA
SATURDAY...EXPECT A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS APPEARS RATHER HIGH THIS WEEKEND.

ALSO OF NOTE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330-350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 300809
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE
ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR MANY
INLAND LOCATIONS TO FALL TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...WITH EVEN A
FEW POCKETS OF NEAR 32F. THIS IN TURN HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FROST TO
OCCUR OVER MANY INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

FOR TODAY...THE PESKY TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE TN VALLEY WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY EAST/SE THROUGH
THE MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST ZONES WILL LIE BETWEEN 2 SEPARATE
JETS...BUT WE LOOK TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EACH ONE TO AID IN LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE FIRST UPPER JET IS ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SECOND IS
STRONGER AND MOVES INTO ALABAMA....WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE. WE/LL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE FIRST JET AND NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE SECOND. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO DEEP WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES. BUT THERE IS AN INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND A
SWATH OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH THAT IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER NORTH AND NW SECTIONS...AND DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH AND SE AREAS. THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL KEEP QPF
DOWN UNDER 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH.

THERE REMAINS A RISK OF ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND WALTERBORO IN RESPONSE TO LIFTED INDICES
AS LOW AS -3 TO -5C...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH 500 TEMPS DOWN TO
MINUS 18 TO MINUS 20C AND WET BULBS UNDER 8K FT THERE MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE A RISK OF SMALL HAIL IF WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY
DEPTH TO THE CONVECTION. PLUS GIVEN PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WE
MIGHT ALSO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION...THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
WARM ADVECTION AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 7-8C. THAT ALONG WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A HUGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.
MAXIMUMS WILL HIT UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH...LOWER 70S CENTRAL
ZONES AND MAYBE A FEW MID 70S FAR SOUTH. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
WILL HOLD SOUTH CAROLINA SHORELINE COMMUNITIES DOWN IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S...WHILE THE GEORGIA COAST WILL BE UP CLOSER TO 70
WITH LESS FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EFFICIENT MIXING WILL TAP INTO A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AND WEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY...PEAKING AT 25 OR 30 MPH. WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. BUT
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WEST/SW WINDS PEAK AT 15-20 KT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH/SE OF THE AREA EARLY
ON..AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
REGION WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE
NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGINS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AND ALTHOUGH IT ARRIVE WITH SOME COOLER
AIR IT WON/T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE WARMER BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUS...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH WESTERLY 925-850 MB
WINDS...TURNING SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ISOLATED
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 80F CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...THIS FORECAST
MAINTAINS A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
FAR INLAND/SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS AS HIGH
AS 1.25 INCH AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK VORT EMBEDDED WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MODEL QPF...MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOST/ALL AREAS COULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
COULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER....STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
ALSO OF NOTE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD POOL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PROSPECTS TO A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE NO MOISTURE RETURN AND NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD EVEN WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN REDUCED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TRENDED FORECASTS TOWARD A DRIER
SCENARIO...LIMITING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
THURSDAY. IN TURN...REDUCED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80F MOST AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A WARM
AND RAIN-FREE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT TIMING DIFFERENCES
OFFERED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TRANSLATE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POPS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY. A
FASTER FROPA WILL SUPPORT LOWER POPS...A GREATLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND A COOLING TREND STARTING SATURDAY. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BUT ADJUSTMENTS
COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO AT EITHER
SITE DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...WITH A REMOTE POSSIBILITY
OF TSRA NEAR KSAV TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL BE
GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE
TIME WHEN THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN
SYNC WITH PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NUDGE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE...AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR SC WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF A
35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INTERACTION
OF THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A TIGHT ENOUGH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF AMZ350 TO ALLOW FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS TO REACH NEAR OR PAST 25 KT...WITH EVEN SOME 6 FOOT SEAS. FOR
THESE REASONS WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE 2
BODIES OF WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM. THE OTHER WATERS WILL PEAK AT
15 OR 20 KT...SO NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT AFTERNOON T-STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GEORGIA WATERS EARLY ON...TAKING
WITH IT LINGERING CONVECTION AND REPLACED BY AN ANEMIC REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ONLY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AT BEST...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF SURGE OF SUB-SCA NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS SC WATERS TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ALL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE LAYER STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SURGE
OF SCA GUSTS AROUND 25 KT/SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT COULD OCCUR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A WEAKER GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO SUB-SCA WINDS
VEERING FROM E/SE TO S/SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT
MARGINAL SCA WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MARINE LAYER
STABILITY COULD AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER COLD FROPA
SATURDAY...EXPECT A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS APPEARS RATHER HIGH THIS WEEKEND.

ALSO OF NOTE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330-350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 300809
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE
ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR MANY
INLAND LOCATIONS TO FALL TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...WITH EVEN A
FEW POCKETS OF NEAR 32F. THIS IN TURN HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FROST TO
OCCUR OVER MANY INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

FOR TODAY...THE PESKY TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE TN VALLEY WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY EAST/SE THROUGH
THE MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST ZONES WILL LIE BETWEEN 2 SEPARATE
JETS...BUT WE LOOK TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EACH ONE TO AID IN LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE FIRST UPPER JET IS ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SECOND IS
STRONGER AND MOVES INTO ALABAMA....WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE. WE/LL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE FIRST JET AND NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE SECOND. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO DEEP WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES. BUT THERE IS AN INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND A
SWATH OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH THAT IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER NORTH AND NW SECTIONS...AND DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH AND SE AREAS. THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL KEEP QPF
DOWN UNDER 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH.

THERE REMAINS A RISK OF ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND WALTERBORO IN RESPONSE TO LIFTED INDICES
AS LOW AS -3 TO -5C...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH 500 TEMPS DOWN TO
MINUS 18 TO MINUS 20C AND WET BULBS UNDER 8K FT THERE MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE A RISK OF SMALL HAIL IF WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY
DEPTH TO THE CONVECTION. PLUS GIVEN PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WE
MIGHT ALSO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION...THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
WARM ADVECTION AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 7-8C. THAT ALONG WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A HUGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.
MAXIMUMS WILL HIT UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH...LOWER 70S CENTRAL
ZONES AND MAYBE A FEW MID 70S FAR SOUTH. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
WILL HOLD SOUTH CAROLINA SHORELINE COMMUNITIES DOWN IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S...WHILE THE GEORGIA COAST WILL BE UP CLOSER TO 70
WITH LESS FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EFFICIENT MIXING WILL TAP INTO A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AND WEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY...PEAKING AT 25 OR 30 MPH. WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. BUT
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WEST/SW WINDS PEAK AT 15-20 KT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH/SE OF THE AREA EARLY
ON..AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
REGION WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE
NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGINS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AND ALTHOUGH IT ARRIVE WITH SOME COOLER
AIR IT WON/T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE WARMER BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUS...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH WESTERLY 925-850 MB
WINDS...TURNING SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ISOLATED
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 80F CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...THIS FORECAST
MAINTAINS A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
FAR INLAND/SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS AS HIGH
AS 1.25 INCH AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK VORT EMBEDDED WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MODEL QPF...MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOST/ALL AREAS COULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
COULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER....STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
ALSO OF NOTE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD POOL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PROSPECTS TO A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE NO MOISTURE RETURN AND NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD EVEN WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN REDUCED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TRENDED FORECASTS TOWARD A DRIER
SCENARIO...LIMITING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
THURSDAY. IN TURN...REDUCED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80F MOST AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A WARM
AND RAIN-FREE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT TIMING DIFFERENCES
OFFERED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TRANSLATE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POPS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY. A
FASTER FROPA WILL SUPPORT LOWER POPS...A GREATLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND A COOLING TREND STARTING SATURDAY. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BUT ADJUSTMENTS
COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO AT EITHER
SITE DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...WITH A REMOTE POSSIBILITY
OF TSRA NEAR KSAV TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL BE
GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE
TIME WHEN THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN
SYNC WITH PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NUDGE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE...AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR SC WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF A
35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INTERACTION
OF THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A TIGHT ENOUGH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF AMZ350 TO ALLOW FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS TO REACH NEAR OR PAST 25 KT...WITH EVEN SOME 6 FOOT SEAS. FOR
THESE REASONS WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE 2
BODIES OF WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM. THE OTHER WATERS WILL PEAK AT
15 OR 20 KT...SO NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT AFTERNOON T-STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GEORGIA WATERS EARLY ON...TAKING
WITH IT LINGERING CONVECTION AND REPLACED BY AN ANEMIC REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ONLY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AT BEST...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF SURGE OF SUB-SCA NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS SC WATERS TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ALL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE LAYER STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SURGE
OF SCA GUSTS AROUND 25 KT/SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT COULD OCCUR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A WEAKER GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO SUB-SCA WINDS
VEERING FROM E/SE TO S/SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT
MARGINAL SCA WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MARINE LAYER
STABILITY COULD AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER COLD FROPA
SATURDAY...EXPECT A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS APPEARS RATHER HIGH THIS WEEKEND.

ALSO OF NOTE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330-350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 300809
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE
ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR MANY
INLAND LOCATIONS TO FALL TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...WITH EVEN A
FEW POCKETS OF NEAR 32F. THIS IN TURN HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FROST TO
OCCUR OVER MANY INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

FOR TODAY...THE PESKY TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE TN VALLEY WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY EAST/SE THROUGH
THE MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST ZONES WILL LIE BETWEEN 2 SEPARATE
JETS...BUT WE LOOK TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EACH ONE TO AID IN LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE FIRST UPPER JET IS ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SECOND IS
STRONGER AND MOVES INTO ALABAMA....WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE. WE/LL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE FIRST JET AND NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE SECOND. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO DEEP WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES. BUT THERE IS AN INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND A
SWATH OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH THAT IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER NORTH AND NW SECTIONS...AND DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH AND SE AREAS. THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL KEEP QPF
DOWN UNDER 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH.

THERE REMAINS A RISK OF ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND WALTERBORO IN RESPONSE TO LIFTED INDICES
AS LOW AS -3 TO -5C...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH 500 TEMPS DOWN TO
MINUS 18 TO MINUS 20C AND WET BULBS UNDER 8K FT THERE MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE A RISK OF SMALL HAIL IF WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY
DEPTH TO THE CONVECTION. PLUS GIVEN PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WE
MIGHT ALSO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION...THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
WARM ADVECTION AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 7-8C. THAT ALONG WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A HUGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.
MAXIMUMS WILL HIT UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH...LOWER 70S CENTRAL
ZONES AND MAYBE A FEW MID 70S FAR SOUTH. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
WILL HOLD SOUTH CAROLINA SHORELINE COMMUNITIES DOWN IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S...WHILE THE GEORGIA COAST WILL BE UP CLOSER TO 70
WITH LESS FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EFFICIENT MIXING WILL TAP INTO A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AND WEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY...PEAKING AT 25 OR 30 MPH. WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. BUT
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WEST/SW WINDS PEAK AT 15-20 KT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH/SE OF THE AREA EARLY
ON..AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
REGION WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE
NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGINS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AND ALTHOUGH IT ARRIVE WITH SOME COOLER
AIR IT WON/T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE WARMER BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUS...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH WESTERLY 925-850 MB
WINDS...TURNING SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ISOLATED
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 80F CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...THIS FORECAST
MAINTAINS A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
FAR INLAND/SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS AS HIGH
AS 1.25 INCH AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK VORT EMBEDDED WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MODEL QPF...MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOST/ALL AREAS COULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
COULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER....STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
ALSO OF NOTE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD POOL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PROSPECTS TO A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE NO MOISTURE RETURN AND NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD EVEN WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN REDUCED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TRENDED FORECASTS TOWARD A DRIER
SCENARIO...LIMITING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
THURSDAY. IN TURN...REDUCED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80F MOST AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A WARM
AND RAIN-FREE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT TIMING DIFFERENCES
OFFERED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TRANSLATE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POPS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY. A
FASTER FROPA WILL SUPPORT LOWER POPS...A GREATLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND A COOLING TREND STARTING SATURDAY. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BUT ADJUSTMENTS
COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO AT EITHER
SITE DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...WITH A REMOTE POSSIBILITY
OF TSRA NEAR KSAV TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL BE
GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE
TIME WHEN THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN
SYNC WITH PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NUDGE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE...AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR SC WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF A
35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INTERACTION
OF THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A TIGHT ENOUGH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF AMZ350 TO ALLOW FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS TO REACH NEAR OR PAST 25 KT...WITH EVEN SOME 6 FOOT SEAS. FOR
THESE REASONS WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE 2
BODIES OF WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM. THE OTHER WATERS WILL PEAK AT
15 OR 20 KT...SO NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT AFTERNOON T-STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GEORGIA WATERS EARLY ON...TAKING
WITH IT LINGERING CONVECTION AND REPLACED BY AN ANEMIC REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ONLY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AT BEST...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF SURGE OF SUB-SCA NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS SC WATERS TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ALL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE LAYER STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SURGE
OF SCA GUSTS AROUND 25 KT/SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT COULD OCCUR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A WEAKER GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO SUB-SCA WINDS
VEERING FROM E/SE TO S/SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT
MARGINAL SCA WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MARINE LAYER
STABILITY COULD AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER COLD FROPA
SATURDAY...EXPECT A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS APPEARS RATHER HIGH THIS WEEKEND.

ALSO OF NOTE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330-350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 300809
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE
ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR MANY
INLAND LOCATIONS TO FALL TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...WITH EVEN A
FEW POCKETS OF NEAR 32F. THIS IN TURN HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FROST TO
OCCUR OVER MANY INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

FOR TODAY...THE PESKY TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE TN VALLEY WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY EAST/SE THROUGH
THE MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST ZONES WILL LIE BETWEEN 2 SEPARATE
JETS...BUT WE LOOK TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EACH ONE TO AID IN LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE FIRST UPPER JET IS ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SECOND IS
STRONGER AND MOVES INTO ALABAMA....WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE. WE/LL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE FIRST JET AND NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE SECOND. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO DEEP WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES. BUT THERE IS AN INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND A
SWATH OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH THAT IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER NORTH AND NW SECTIONS...AND DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH AND SE AREAS. THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL KEEP QPF
DOWN UNDER 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH.

THERE REMAINS A RISK OF ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND WALTERBORO IN RESPONSE TO LIFTED INDICES
AS LOW AS -3 TO -5C...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH 500 TEMPS DOWN TO
MINUS 18 TO MINUS 20C AND WET BULBS UNDER 8K FT THERE MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE A RISK OF SMALL HAIL IF WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY
DEPTH TO THE CONVECTION. PLUS GIVEN PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WE
MIGHT ALSO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION...THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
WARM ADVECTION AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 7-8C. THAT ALONG WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A HUGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.
MAXIMUMS WILL HIT UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH...LOWER 70S CENTRAL
ZONES AND MAYBE A FEW MID 70S FAR SOUTH. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
WILL HOLD SOUTH CAROLINA SHORELINE COMMUNITIES DOWN IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S...WHILE THE GEORGIA COAST WILL BE UP CLOSER TO 70
WITH LESS FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EFFICIENT MIXING WILL TAP INTO A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AND WEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY...PEAKING AT 25 OR 30 MPH. WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. BUT
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WEST/SW WINDS PEAK AT 15-20 KT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH/SE OF THE AREA EARLY
ON..AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
REGION WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE
NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGINS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AND ALTHOUGH IT ARRIVE WITH SOME COOLER
AIR IT WON/T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE WARMER BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUS...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH WESTERLY 925-850 MB
WINDS...TURNING SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ISOLATED
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 80F CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...THIS FORECAST
MAINTAINS A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
FAR INLAND/SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS AS HIGH
AS 1.25 INCH AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK VORT EMBEDDED WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MODEL QPF...MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOST/ALL AREAS COULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
COULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER....STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
ALSO OF NOTE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD POOL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PROSPECTS TO A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE NO MOISTURE RETURN AND NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD EVEN WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN REDUCED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TRENDED FORECASTS TOWARD A DRIER
SCENARIO...LIMITING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
THURSDAY. IN TURN...REDUCED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80F MOST AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A WARM
AND RAIN-FREE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT TIMING DIFFERENCES
OFFERED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TRANSLATE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POPS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY. A
FASTER FROPA WILL SUPPORT LOWER POPS...A GREATLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND A COOLING TREND STARTING SATURDAY. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BUT ADJUSTMENTS
COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO AT EITHER
SITE DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...WITH A REMOTE POSSIBILITY
OF TSRA NEAR KSAV TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL BE
GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE
TIME WHEN THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN
SYNC WITH PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NUDGE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE...AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR SC WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF A
35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INTERACTION
OF THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A TIGHT ENOUGH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF AMZ350 TO ALLOW FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS TO REACH NEAR OR PAST 25 KT...WITH EVEN SOME 6 FOOT SEAS. FOR
THESE REASONS WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE 2
BODIES OF WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM. THE OTHER WATERS WILL PEAK AT
15 OR 20 KT...SO NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT AFTERNOON T-STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GEORGIA WATERS EARLY ON...TAKING
WITH IT LINGERING CONVECTION AND REPLACED BY AN ANEMIC REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ONLY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AT BEST...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF SURGE OF SUB-SCA NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS SC WATERS TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ALL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE LAYER STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SURGE
OF SCA GUSTS AROUND 25 KT/SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT COULD OCCUR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A WEAKER GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO SUB-SCA WINDS
VEERING FROM E/SE TO S/SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT
MARGINAL SCA WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MARINE LAYER
STABILITY COULD AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER COLD FROPA
SATURDAY...EXPECT A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS APPEARS RATHER HIGH THIS WEEKEND.

ALSO OF NOTE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330-350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 300809
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE
ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR MANY
INLAND LOCATIONS TO FALL TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...WITH EVEN A
FEW POCKETS OF NEAR 32F. THIS IN TURN HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FROST TO
OCCUR OVER MANY INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

FOR TODAY...THE PESKY TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE TN VALLEY WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY EAST/SE THROUGH
THE MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST ZONES WILL LIE BETWEEN 2 SEPARATE
JETS...BUT WE LOOK TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EACH ONE TO AID IN LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE FIRST UPPER JET IS ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SECOND IS
STRONGER AND MOVES INTO ALABAMA....WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE. WE/LL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE FIRST JET AND NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE SECOND. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO DEEP WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES. BUT THERE IS AN INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND A
SWATH OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH THAT IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER NORTH AND NW SECTIONS...AND DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH AND SE AREAS. THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL KEEP QPF
DOWN UNDER 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH.

THERE REMAINS A RISK OF ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND WALTERBORO IN RESPONSE TO LIFTED INDICES
AS LOW AS -3 TO -5C...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH 500 TEMPS DOWN TO
MINUS 18 TO MINUS 20C AND WET BULBS UNDER 8K FT THERE MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE A RISK OF SMALL HAIL IF WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY
DEPTH TO THE CONVECTION. PLUS GIVEN PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WE
MIGHT ALSO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION...THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
WARM ADVECTION AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 7-8C. THAT ALONG WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A HUGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.
MAXIMUMS WILL HIT UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH...LOWER 70S CENTRAL
ZONES AND MAYBE A FEW MID 70S FAR SOUTH. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
WILL HOLD SOUTH CAROLINA SHORELINE COMMUNITIES DOWN IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S...WHILE THE GEORGIA COAST WILL BE UP CLOSER TO 70
WITH LESS FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EFFICIENT MIXING WILL TAP INTO A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AND WEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY...PEAKING AT 25 OR 30 MPH. WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. BUT
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WEST/SW WINDS PEAK AT 15-20 KT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH/SE OF THE AREA EARLY
ON..AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
REGION WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE
NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGINS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AND ALTHOUGH IT ARRIVE WITH SOME COOLER
AIR IT WON/T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE WARMER BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUS...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH WESTERLY 925-850 MB
WINDS...TURNING SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ISOLATED
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 80F CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...THIS FORECAST
MAINTAINS A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
FAR INLAND/SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS AS HIGH
AS 1.25 INCH AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK VORT EMBEDDED WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MODEL QPF...MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOST/ALL AREAS COULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
COULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER....STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
ALSO OF NOTE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD POOL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PROSPECTS TO A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE NO MOISTURE RETURN AND NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD EVEN WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN REDUCED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TRENDED FORECASTS TOWARD A DRIER
SCENARIO...LIMITING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
THURSDAY. IN TURN...REDUCED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80F MOST AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A WARM
AND RAIN-FREE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT TIMING DIFFERENCES
OFFERED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TRANSLATE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POPS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY. A
FASTER FROPA WILL SUPPORT LOWER POPS...A GREATLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND A COOLING TREND STARTING SATURDAY. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BUT ADJUSTMENTS
COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO AT EITHER
SITE DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...WITH A REMOTE POSSIBILITY
OF TSRA NEAR KSAV TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL BE
GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE
TIME WHEN THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN
SYNC WITH PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NUDGE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE...AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR SC WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF A
35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INTERACTION
OF THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A TIGHT ENOUGH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF AMZ350 TO ALLOW FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS TO REACH NEAR OR PAST 25 KT...WITH EVEN SOME 6 FOOT SEAS. FOR
THESE REASONS WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE 2
BODIES OF WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM. THE OTHER WATERS WILL PEAK AT
15 OR 20 KT...SO NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT AFTERNOON T-STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GEORGIA WATERS EARLY ON...TAKING
WITH IT LINGERING CONVECTION AND REPLACED BY AN ANEMIC REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ONLY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AT BEST...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF SURGE OF SUB-SCA NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS SC WATERS TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ALL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE LAYER STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SURGE
OF SCA GUSTS AROUND 25 KT/SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT COULD OCCUR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A WEAKER GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO SUB-SCA WINDS
VEERING FROM E/SE TO S/SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT
MARGINAL SCA WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MARINE LAYER
STABILITY COULD AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER COLD FROPA
SATURDAY...EXPECT A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS APPEARS RATHER HIGH THIS WEEKEND.

ALSO OF NOTE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330-350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 300809
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE
ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR MANY
INLAND LOCATIONS TO FALL TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...WITH EVEN A
FEW POCKETS OF NEAR 32F. THIS IN TURN HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FROST TO
OCCUR OVER MANY INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

FOR TODAY...THE PESKY TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE TN VALLEY WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY EAST/SE THROUGH
THE MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST ZONES WILL LIE BETWEEN 2 SEPARATE
JETS...BUT WE LOOK TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO EACH ONE TO AID IN LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE FIRST UPPER JET IS ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SECOND IS
STRONGER AND MOVES INTO ALABAMA....WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE. WE/LL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE FIRST JET AND NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE SECOND. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO DEEP WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES. BUT THERE IS AN INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND A
SWATH OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1 INCH THAT IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER NORTH AND NW SECTIONS...AND DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH AND SE AREAS. THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL KEEP QPF
DOWN UNDER 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH.

THERE REMAINS A RISK OF ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON AND WALTERBORO IN RESPONSE TO LIFTED INDICES
AS LOW AS -3 TO -5C...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH 500 TEMPS DOWN TO
MINUS 18 TO MINUS 20C AND WET BULBS UNDER 8K FT THERE MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE A RISK OF SMALL HAIL IF WE/RE ABLE TO ACHIEVE ANY
DEPTH TO THE CONVECTION. PLUS GIVEN PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WE
MIGHT ALSO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH IN A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND CUT DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION...THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
WARM ADVECTION AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 7-8C. THAT ALONG WITH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A HUGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS.
MAXIMUMS WILL HIT UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH...LOWER 70S CENTRAL
ZONES AND MAYBE A FEW MID 70S FAR SOUTH. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
WILL HOLD SOUTH CAROLINA SHORELINE COMMUNITIES DOWN IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S...WHILE THE GEORGIA COAST WILL BE UP CLOSER TO 70
WITH LESS FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EFFICIENT MIXING WILL TAP INTO A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AND WEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTY...PEAKING AT 25 OR 30 MPH. WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. BUT
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WEST/SW WINDS PEAK AT 15-20 KT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH/SE OF THE AREA EARLY
ON..AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
REGION WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE
NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGINS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...AND ALTHOUGH IT ARRIVE WITH SOME COOLER
AIR IT WON/T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S AWAY FROM THE WARMER BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THUS...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH WESTERLY 925-850 MB
WINDS...TURNING SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ISOLATED
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 80F CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MEANWHILE...THIS FORECAST
MAINTAINS A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
FAR INLAND/SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS AS HIGH
AS 1.25 INCH AND SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK VORT EMBEDDED WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
300-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXPAND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MODEL QPF...MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
MOST/ALL AREAS COULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
COULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER....STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
ALSO OF NOTE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD POOL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PROSPECTS TO A RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESS OF THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE NO MOISTURE RETURN AND NO PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD EVEN WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN REDUCED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. TRENDED FORECASTS TOWARD A DRIER
SCENARIO...LIMITING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO FAR SOUTHERN/INLAND
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIMITING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
THURSDAY. IN TURN...REDUCED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL TRANSLATE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES 75-80F MOST AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A WARM
AND RAIN-FREE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT TIMING DIFFERENCES
OFFERED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TRANSLATE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POPS...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY. A
FASTER FROPA WILL SUPPORT LOWER POPS...A GREATLY REDUCED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND A COOLING TREND STARTING SATURDAY. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BUT ADJUSTMENTS
COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST
FROPA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO AT EITHER
SITE DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...WITH A REMOTE POSSIBILITY
OF TSRA NEAR KSAV TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL BE
GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE
TIME WHEN THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN
SYNC WITH PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NUDGE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE...AS THE FRONT REACHES OUR SC WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF A
35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INTERACTION
OF THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND A TIGHT ENOUGH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF AMZ350 TO ALLOW FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS TO REACH NEAR OR PAST 25 KT...WITH EVEN SOME 6 FOOT SEAS. FOR
THESE REASONS WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE 2
BODIES OF WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM. THE OTHER WATERS WILL PEAK AT
15 OR 20 KT...SO NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED THAT AFTERNOON T-STORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GEORGIA WATERS EARLY ON...TAKING
WITH IT LINGERING CONVECTION AND REPLACED BY AN ANEMIC REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN ONLY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION AT BEST...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF SURGE OF SUB-SCA NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS SC WATERS TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHTER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
ELSEWHERE WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ALL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE LAYER STABILITY SHOULD HOLD GUSTS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER COLD FROPA AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND A SURGE
OF SCA GUSTS AROUND 25 KT/SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT COULD OCCUR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A WEAKER GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO SUB-SCA WINDS
VEERING FROM E/SE TO S/SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT
MARGINAL SCA WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MARINE LAYER
STABILITY COULD AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER COLD FROPA
SATURDAY...EXPECT A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SCA WINDS/SEAS APPEARS RATHER HIGH THIS WEEKEND.

ALSO OF NOTE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330-350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 300701
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
301 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL OCCUR MAINLY THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF AN H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY EARLY TODAY.
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SHOWERS IN THE WEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND IN THE EAST PART LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE LESS
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
INTO THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. THIS TREND PLUS THE DIURNAL
TIMING FAVORS SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON A RELATIVELY WARM START AND
EXPECTED AFTERNOON SUN WITH A WESTERLY AND SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY A PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE HAVE POPS 20
PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF DISPLAYS
THIS MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH. KEPT JUST A SMALL POP IN THE SOUTH PART WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST SHOULD CIRCULATE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS
MOISTURE PLUS ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS
INDICATED GREATER MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LESS
OF A SHOWER CHANCE.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCE MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO HELP CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE INDICATING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
DRYING SATURDAY. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH A DRY PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA IN THE TAFS WITH
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD
AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO EAST FROPA
ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 300701
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
301 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL OCCUR MAINLY THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF AN H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY EARLY TODAY.
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SHOWERS IN THE WEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND IN THE EAST PART LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE LESS
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
INTO THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. THIS TREND PLUS THE DIURNAL
TIMING FAVORS SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON A RELATIVELY WARM START AND
EXPECTED AFTERNOON SUN WITH A WESTERLY AND SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY A PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE HAVE POPS 20
PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF DISPLAYS
THIS MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH. KEPT JUST A SMALL POP IN THE SOUTH PART WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST SHOULD CIRCULATE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS
MOISTURE PLUS ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS
INDICATED GREATER MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LESS
OF A SHOWER CHANCE.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCE MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO HELP CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE INDICATING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
DRYING SATURDAY. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH A DRY PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA IN THE TAFS WITH
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD
AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO EAST FROPA
ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300701
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
301 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL OCCUR MAINLY THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF AN H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY EARLY TODAY.
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SHOWERS IN THE WEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND IN THE EAST PART LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE LESS
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
INTO THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. THIS TREND PLUS THE DIURNAL
TIMING FAVORS SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON A RELATIVELY WARM START AND
EXPECTED AFTERNOON SUN WITH A WESTERLY AND SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY A PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE HAVE POPS 20
PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF DISPLAYS
THIS MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH. KEPT JUST A SMALL POP IN THE SOUTH PART WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST SHOULD CIRCULATE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS
MOISTURE PLUS ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS
INDICATED GREATER MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LESS
OF A SHOWER CHANCE.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCE MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO HELP CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE INDICATING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
DRYING SATURDAY. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH A DRY PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA IN THE TAFS WITH
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD
AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO EAST FROPA
ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300701
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
301 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL OCCUR MAINLY THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF AN H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY EARLY TODAY.
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SHOWERS IN THE WEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND IN THE EAST PART LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE LESS
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
INTO THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. THIS TREND PLUS THE DIURNAL
TIMING FAVORS SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON A RELATIVELY WARM START AND
EXPECTED AFTERNOON SUN WITH A WESTERLY AND SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY A PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE HAVE POPS 20
PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF DISPLAYS
THIS MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH. KEPT JUST A SMALL POP IN THE SOUTH PART WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST SHOULD CIRCULATE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS
MOISTURE PLUS ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS
INDICATED GREATER MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LESS
OF A SHOWER CHANCE.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCE MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO HELP CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE INDICATING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
DRYING SATURDAY. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH A DRY PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA IN THE TAFS WITH
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD
AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO EAST FROPA
ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 300538
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HIGH RES MODELS IN LINE WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
SHIELD MOVING INTO NW GA AROUND 08Z AND INTO THE METRO BY 11Z.
RAIN ENDS IN ATL METRO AND POINTS NORTH BY 15Z AS AREA SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO MCN TO CSG AREA...AND BECOMES LESS UNIFORM. LOCAL WRF
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDER BY 18Z ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CSG TO MCN LINE AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS...BUT WOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED. RAIN THREAT ENDS SOUTH BY
21Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
FROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING
INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY MUCH IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BACK OVER MS. SUSPECT THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORCING THE CONVECTION. SURFACE INSTABILITY
DOES WANE QUITE A BIT ACROSS GA...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER OR TWO. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS BEFORE
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING.



//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  77  52 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  56 /  70   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  70  48 /  50   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  73  51 /  70   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  76  58 /  50  10  30  40
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  70   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  75  55 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  74  49 /  50   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  52 /  60   5  30  40
VIDALIA         72  50  78  58 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 300538
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HIGH RES MODELS IN LINE WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
SHIELD MOVING INTO NW GA AROUND 08Z AND INTO THE METRO BY 11Z.
RAIN ENDS IN ATL METRO AND POINTS NORTH BY 15Z AS AREA SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO MCN TO CSG AREA...AND BECOMES LESS UNIFORM. LOCAL WRF
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDER BY 18Z ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CSG TO MCN LINE AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS...BUT WOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED. RAIN THREAT ENDS SOUTH BY
21Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
FROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING
INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY MUCH IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BACK OVER MS. SUSPECT THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORCING THE CONVECTION. SURFACE INSTABILITY
DOES WANE QUITE A BIT ACROSS GA...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER OR TWO. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS BEFORE
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING.



//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  77  52 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  56 /  70   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  70  48 /  50   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  73  51 /  70   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  76  58 /  50  10  30  40
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  70   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  75  55 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  74  49 /  50   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  52 /  60   5  30  40
VIDALIA         72  50  78  58 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 300538
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HIGH RES MODELS IN LINE WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
SHIELD MOVING INTO NW GA AROUND 08Z AND INTO THE METRO BY 11Z.
RAIN ENDS IN ATL METRO AND POINTS NORTH BY 15Z AS AREA SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO MCN TO CSG AREA...AND BECOMES LESS UNIFORM. LOCAL WRF
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDER BY 18Z ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CSG TO MCN LINE AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS...BUT WOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED. RAIN THREAT ENDS SOUTH BY
21Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
FROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING
INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY MUCH IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BACK OVER MS. SUSPECT THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORCING THE CONVECTION. SURFACE INSTABILITY
DOES WANE QUITE A BIT ACROSS GA...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER OR TWO. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS BEFORE
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING.



//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  77  52 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  56 /  70   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  70  48 /  50   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  73  51 /  70   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  76  58 /  50  10  30  40
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  70   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  75  55 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  74  49 /  50   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  52 /  60   5  30  40
VIDALIA         72  50  78  58 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 300538
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HIGH RES MODELS IN LINE WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
SHIELD MOVING INTO NW GA AROUND 08Z AND INTO THE METRO BY 11Z.
RAIN ENDS IN ATL METRO AND POINTS NORTH BY 15Z AS AREA SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO MCN TO CSG AREA...AND BECOMES LESS UNIFORM. LOCAL WRF
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDER BY 18Z ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CSG TO MCN LINE AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS...BUT WOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED. RAIN THREAT ENDS SOUTH BY
21Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
FROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING
INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY MUCH IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BACK OVER MS. SUSPECT THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORCING THE CONVECTION. SURFACE INSTABILITY
DOES WANE QUITE A BIT ACROSS GA...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER OR TWO. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS BEFORE
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING.



//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  77  52 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  56 /  70   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  70  48 /  50   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  73  51 /  70   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  76  58 /  50  10  30  40
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  70   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  75  55 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  74  49 /  50   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  52 /  60   5  30  40
VIDALIA         72  50  78  58 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 300528
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
128 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST. MOISTURE WAS SLOWLY
RETURNING ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH MISSOURI TO TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING THE WEAK COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA. CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN GA WILL
SPREAD INTO THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THE OCCURRENCE FROST
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY
WITH POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO
EAST FROPA ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300528
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
128 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST. MOISTURE WAS SLOWLY
RETURNING ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH MISSOURI TO TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING THE WEAK COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA. CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN GA WILL
SPREAD INTO THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THE OCCURRENCE FROST
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY
WITH POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO
EAST FROPA ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 300528
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
128 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST. MOISTURE WAS SLOWLY
RETURNING ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH MISSOURI TO TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING THE WEAK COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA. CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN GA WILL
SPREAD INTO THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THE OCCURRENCE FROST
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY
WITH POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO
EAST FROPA ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 300528
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
128 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST. MOISTURE WAS SLOWLY
RETURNING ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH MISSOURI TO TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING THE WEAK COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA. CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN GA WILL
SPREAD INTO THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THE OCCURRENCE FROST
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY
WITH POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO
EAST FROPA ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 300521
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
121 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH
FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WARMER ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS TRANSLATED OFF THE COAST
THIS EVENING. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT AND INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN TEMP
READINGS THAT STEADY OUT BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM...PERHAPS RISE NEARING
DAYBREAK.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN THE
CENTRAL CORRIDOR AND CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE HIGH...UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S MOST ELSEWHERE. MINIMUMS WILL BE REACHED PRIOR TO 3
AM BEFORE SOME CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. WE EXPANDED MENTIONS OF PATCHY FROST TO
COVER MUCH OF THE REGION INLAND FROM US-17.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...THINKING ON GENERAL SCENARIO FOR MONDAY REMAINS LITTLE
CHANGED. WEAK BAND OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER SUPPORT DURING THE MORNING WILL COME FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR MODEST UPWARD
MOTION...SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS. WITH DEW POINTS NO HIGHER
THAN THE 40S...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO SQUEEZE MUCH QPF OUT DURING THE
MORNING AS THE LINE MOVES QUICKLY FROM THE UPSTATE INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER SUPPORT DIMINISHES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL NOTICEABLY WARMER AS
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS MORE OF A CHANCE FOR SOME BROKEN SUNSHINE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THEREFORE...WHILE THE POPS ACTUALLY DECREASE A BIT
LATER IN THE DAY...SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...SO I
HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH...WITH
THE COOLEST TEMPS DUE TO EARLIER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MORE THAN
ANYTHING ELSE.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE LINGERING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING. AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE PACIFIC RATHER THAN POLAR
REGIONS...SO LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50
AT THE COAST.

TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER JET PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND
FLORIDA...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER
GEORGIA. THE NAM HITS THAT THERE COULD SOME SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...OR MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM AS TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE
70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT MY CURRENT BELIEF IS THAT THIS WILL
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND THE DAY WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PALTRY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...AND ANOTHER
UNINSPIRING JET MAX...SO I HAVE GONE A LITTLE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE AND
CAPPED THE POPS AT 20 PERCENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND...OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD BE MILDER...HOLDING IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CALLING THE
HIGH A WEAK WEDGE MIGHT BE GIVING IT TOO MUCH CREDIT...BUT IT WILL
ACT TO ALLOW THE WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S NEAR THE COAST. INLAND...THE LOW LEVELS WILL
BE WARMING WITH 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING 16 TO 18 C BY AFTERNOON IN THE
GEORGIA COUNTIES. NORMAL MIXING DOWN BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXACT
FINAL RESTING PLACE OF THE FRONT...I HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO AT EITHER
SITE DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...WITH A REMOTE POSSIBILITY
OF TSRA NEAR KSAV TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL BE
GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE
TIME WHEN THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN
SYNC WITH PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY VEER TO SOUTHWEST
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY
PROGRESSES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
WILL SUPPORT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KT ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS 2 TO 3
FT ON AVERAGE OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE
A FEW HOURS JUST BELOW SCA WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON COUNTY
AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6
PM...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY FUTURE SHIFTS. ANY
INCREASES IN WINDS WOULD CAUSE THE NEED OF AN SCA.

WINDS WILL COME DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES AWAY
AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND...CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO COLLAPSE.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CURRENTLY I THINK WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
THAT FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...CAUSING MARINE WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST...THEN
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AGAIN WINDS SHOULD
BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FWA
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 300521
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
121 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH
FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WARMER ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS TRANSLATED OFF THE COAST
THIS EVENING. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT AND INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN TEMP
READINGS THAT STEADY OUT BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM...PERHAPS RISE NEARING
DAYBREAK.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN THE
CENTRAL CORRIDOR AND CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE HIGH...UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S MOST ELSEWHERE. MINIMUMS WILL BE REACHED PRIOR TO 3
AM BEFORE SOME CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. WE EXPANDED MENTIONS OF PATCHY FROST TO
COVER MUCH OF THE REGION INLAND FROM US-17.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...THINKING ON GENERAL SCENARIO FOR MONDAY REMAINS LITTLE
CHANGED. WEAK BAND OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER SUPPORT DURING THE MORNING WILL COME FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR MODEST UPWARD
MOTION...SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS. WITH DEW POINTS NO HIGHER
THAN THE 40S...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO SQUEEZE MUCH QPF OUT DURING THE
MORNING AS THE LINE MOVES QUICKLY FROM THE UPSTATE INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER SUPPORT DIMINISHES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL NOTICEABLY WARMER AS
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS MORE OF A CHANCE FOR SOME BROKEN SUNSHINE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THEREFORE...WHILE THE POPS ACTUALLY DECREASE A BIT
LATER IN THE DAY...SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...SO I
HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH...WITH
THE COOLEST TEMPS DUE TO EARLIER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MORE THAN
ANYTHING ELSE.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE LINGERING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING. AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE PACIFIC RATHER THAN POLAR
REGIONS...SO LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50
AT THE COAST.

TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER JET PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND
FLORIDA...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER
GEORGIA. THE NAM HITS THAT THERE COULD SOME SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...OR MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM AS TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE
70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT MY CURRENT BELIEF IS THAT THIS WILL
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND THE DAY WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PALTRY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...AND ANOTHER
UNINSPIRING JET MAX...SO I HAVE GONE A LITTLE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE AND
CAPPED THE POPS AT 20 PERCENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND...OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD BE MILDER...HOLDING IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CALLING THE
HIGH A WEAK WEDGE MIGHT BE GIVING IT TOO MUCH CREDIT...BUT IT WILL
ACT TO ALLOW THE WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S NEAR THE COAST. INLAND...THE LOW LEVELS WILL
BE WARMING WITH 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING 16 TO 18 C BY AFTERNOON IN THE
GEORGIA COUNTIES. NORMAL MIXING DOWN BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXACT
FINAL RESTING PLACE OF THE FRONT...I HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO AT EITHER
SITE DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...WITH A REMOTE POSSIBILITY
OF TSRA NEAR KSAV TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL BE
GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE
TIME WHEN THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN
SYNC WITH PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY VEER TO SOUTHWEST
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY
PROGRESSES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
WILL SUPPORT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KT ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS 2 TO 3
FT ON AVERAGE OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE
A FEW HOURS JUST BELOW SCA WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON COUNTY
AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6
PM...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY FUTURE SHIFTS. ANY
INCREASES IN WINDS WOULD CAUSE THE NEED OF AN SCA.

WINDS WILL COME DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES AWAY
AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND...CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO COLLAPSE.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CURRENTLY I THINK WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
THAT FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...CAUSING MARINE WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST...THEN
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AGAIN WINDS SHOULD
BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FWA
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 300521
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
121 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH
FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WARMER ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS TRANSLATED OFF THE COAST
THIS EVENING. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT AND INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN TEMP
READINGS THAT STEADY OUT BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM...PERHAPS RISE NEARING
DAYBREAK.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN THE
CENTRAL CORRIDOR AND CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE HIGH...UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S MOST ELSEWHERE. MINIMUMS WILL BE REACHED PRIOR TO 3
AM BEFORE SOME CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. WE EXPANDED MENTIONS OF PATCHY FROST TO
COVER MUCH OF THE REGION INLAND FROM US-17.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...THINKING ON GENERAL SCENARIO FOR MONDAY REMAINS LITTLE
CHANGED. WEAK BAND OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER SUPPORT DURING THE MORNING WILL COME FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR MODEST UPWARD
MOTION...SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS. WITH DEW POINTS NO HIGHER
THAN THE 40S...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO SQUEEZE MUCH QPF OUT DURING THE
MORNING AS THE LINE MOVES QUICKLY FROM THE UPSTATE INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER SUPPORT DIMINISHES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL NOTICEABLY WARMER AS
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS MORE OF A CHANCE FOR SOME BROKEN SUNSHINE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THEREFORE...WHILE THE POPS ACTUALLY DECREASE A BIT
LATER IN THE DAY...SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...SO I
HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH...WITH
THE COOLEST TEMPS DUE TO EARLIER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MORE THAN
ANYTHING ELSE.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE LINGERING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING. AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE PACIFIC RATHER THAN POLAR
REGIONS...SO LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50
AT THE COAST.

TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER JET PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND
FLORIDA...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER
GEORGIA. THE NAM HITS THAT THERE COULD SOME SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...OR MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM AS TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE
70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT MY CURRENT BELIEF IS THAT THIS WILL
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND THE DAY WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PALTRY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...AND ANOTHER
UNINSPIRING JET MAX...SO I HAVE GONE A LITTLE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE AND
CAPPED THE POPS AT 20 PERCENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND...OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD BE MILDER...HOLDING IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CALLING THE
HIGH A WEAK WEDGE MIGHT BE GIVING IT TOO MUCH CREDIT...BUT IT WILL
ACT TO ALLOW THE WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S NEAR THE COAST. INLAND...THE LOW LEVELS WILL
BE WARMING WITH 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING 16 TO 18 C BY AFTERNOON IN THE
GEORGIA COUNTIES. NORMAL MIXING DOWN BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXACT
FINAL RESTING PLACE OF THE FRONT...I HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO AT EITHER
SITE DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...WITH A REMOTE POSSIBILITY
OF TSRA NEAR KSAV TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL BE
GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE
TIME WHEN THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN
SYNC WITH PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY VEER TO SOUTHWEST
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY
PROGRESSES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
WILL SUPPORT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KT ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS 2 TO 3
FT ON AVERAGE OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE
A FEW HOURS JUST BELOW SCA WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON COUNTY
AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6
PM...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY FUTURE SHIFTS. ANY
INCREASES IN WINDS WOULD CAUSE THE NEED OF AN SCA.

WINDS WILL COME DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES AWAY
AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND...CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO COLLAPSE.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CURRENTLY I THINK WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
THAT FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...CAUSING MARINE WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST...THEN
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AGAIN WINDS SHOULD
BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FWA
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 300521
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
121 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH
FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WARMER ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS TRANSLATED OFF THE COAST
THIS EVENING. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT AND INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN TEMP
READINGS THAT STEADY OUT BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM...PERHAPS RISE NEARING
DAYBREAK.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN THE
CENTRAL CORRIDOR AND CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE HIGH...UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S MOST ELSEWHERE. MINIMUMS WILL BE REACHED PRIOR TO 3
AM BEFORE SOME CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. WE EXPANDED MENTIONS OF PATCHY FROST TO
COVER MUCH OF THE REGION INLAND FROM US-17.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...THINKING ON GENERAL SCENARIO FOR MONDAY REMAINS LITTLE
CHANGED. WEAK BAND OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER SUPPORT DURING THE MORNING WILL COME FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR MODEST UPWARD
MOTION...SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS. WITH DEW POINTS NO HIGHER
THAN THE 40S...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO SQUEEZE MUCH QPF OUT DURING THE
MORNING AS THE LINE MOVES QUICKLY FROM THE UPSTATE INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER SUPPORT DIMINISHES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL NOTICEABLY WARMER AS
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS MORE OF A CHANCE FOR SOME BROKEN SUNSHINE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THEREFORE...WHILE THE POPS ACTUALLY DECREASE A BIT
LATER IN THE DAY...SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...SO I
HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH...WITH
THE COOLEST TEMPS DUE TO EARLIER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MORE THAN
ANYTHING ELSE.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE LINGERING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING. AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE PACIFIC RATHER THAN POLAR
REGIONS...SO LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50
AT THE COAST.

TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER JET PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND
FLORIDA...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER
GEORGIA. THE NAM HITS THAT THERE COULD SOME SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...OR MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM AS TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE
70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT MY CURRENT BELIEF IS THAT THIS WILL
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND THE DAY WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PALTRY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...AND ANOTHER
UNINSPIRING JET MAX...SO I HAVE GONE A LITTLE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE AND
CAPPED THE POPS AT 20 PERCENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND...OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD BE MILDER...HOLDING IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CALLING THE
HIGH A WEAK WEDGE MIGHT BE GIVING IT TOO MUCH CREDIT...BUT IT WILL
ACT TO ALLOW THE WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S NEAR THE COAST. INLAND...THE LOW LEVELS WILL
BE WARMING WITH 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING 16 TO 18 C BY AFTERNOON IN THE
GEORGIA COUNTIES. NORMAL MIXING DOWN BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXACT
FINAL RESTING PLACE OF THE FRONT...I HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO AT EITHER
SITE DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...WITH A REMOTE POSSIBILITY
OF TSRA NEAR KSAV TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...A WEST/SW FLOW WILL BE
GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...DURING THE
TIME WHEN THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH IN
SYNC WITH PEAK HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY VEER TO SOUTHWEST
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY
PROGRESSES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
WILL SUPPORT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KT ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS 2 TO 3
FT ON AVERAGE OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE
A FEW HOURS JUST BELOW SCA WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON COUNTY
AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6
PM...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY FUTURE SHIFTS. ANY
INCREASES IN WINDS WOULD CAUSE THE NEED OF AN SCA.

WINDS WILL COME DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES AWAY
AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND...CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO COLLAPSE.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CURRENTLY I THINK WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
THAT FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...CAUSING MARINE WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST...THEN
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AGAIN WINDS SHOULD
BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FWA
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 300500
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
100 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH
FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WARMER ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS TRANSLATED OFF THE COAST
THIS EVENING. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT AND INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN TEMP
READINGS THAT SHOULD STEADY OUT BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM...PERHAPS RISE
NEARING DAYBREAK.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN THE
CENTRAL CORRIDOR AND CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE HIGH...UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S MOST ELSEWHERE. MINIMUMS WILL BE REACHED PRIOR TO 3
AM BEFORE SOME CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. WE EXPANDED MENTIONS OF PATCHY FROST TO
COVER MUCH OF THE REGION INLAND FROM US-17.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...THINKING ON GENERAL SCENARIO FOR MONDAY REMAINS LITTLE
CHANGED. WEAK BAND OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER SUPPORT DURING THE MORNING WILL COME FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR MODEST UPWARD
MOTION...SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS. WITH DEW POINTS NO HIGHER
THAN THE 40S...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO SQUEEZE MUCH QPF OUT DURING THE
MORNING AS THE LINE MOVES QUICKLY FROM THE UPSTATE INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER SUPPORT DIMINISHES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL NOTICEABLY WARMER AS
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS MORE OF A CHANCE FOR SOME BROKEN SUNSHINE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THEREFORE...WHILE THE POPS ACTUALLY DECREASE A BIT
LATER IN THE DAY...SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...SO I
HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH...WITH
THE COOLEST TEMPS DUE TO EARLIER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MORE THAN
ANYTHING ELSE.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE LINGERING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING. AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE PACIFIC RATHER THAN POLAR
REGIONS...SO LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50
AT THE COAST.

TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER JET PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND
FLORIDA...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER
GEORGIA. THE NAM HITS THAT THERE COULD SOME SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...OR MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM AS TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE
70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT MY CURRENT BELIEF IS THAT THIS WILL
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND THE DAY WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PALTRY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...AND ANOTHER
UNINSPIRING JET MAX...SO I HAVE GONE A LITTLE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE AND
CAPPED THE POPS AT 20 PERCENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND...OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD BE MILDER...HOLDING IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CALLING THE
HIGH A WEAK WEDGE MIGHT BE GIVING IT TOO MUCH CREDIT...BUT IT WILL
ACT TO ALLOW THE WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S NEAR THE COAST. INLAND...THE LOW LEVELS WILL
BE WARMING WITH 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING 16 TO 18 C BY AFTERNOON IN THE
GEORGIA COUNTIES. NORMAL MIXING DOWN BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXACT
FINAL RESTING PLACE OF THE FRONT...I HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. MINIMAL CHANCES FOR A
BRIEF SHOWER EITHER SIDE OF MIDDAY ON MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY FROM MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON. WSW TO SW FLOW
COULD BRIEFLY EXCEED 15G25KT BY A FEW KNOTS DURING THE TIME WHEN
THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY VEER TO SOUTHWEST
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY
PROGRESSES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
WILL SUPPORT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KT ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS 2 TO 3
FT ON AVERAGE OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE
A FEW HOURS JUST BELOW SCA WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON COUNTY
AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6
PM...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY FUTURE SHIFTS. ANY
INCREASES IN WINDS WOULD CAUSE THE NEED OF AN SCA.

WINDS WILL COME DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES AWAY
AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND...CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO COLLAPSE.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CURRENTLY I THINK WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
THAT FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...CAUSING MARINE WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST...THEN
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AGAIN WINDS SHOULD
BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FWA
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 300500
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
100 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH
FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WARMER ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS TRANSLATED OFF THE COAST
THIS EVENING. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT AND INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN TEMP
READINGS THAT SHOULD STEADY OUT BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM...PERHAPS RISE
NEARING DAYBREAK.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN THE
CENTRAL CORRIDOR AND CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE HIGH...UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S MOST ELSEWHERE. MINIMUMS WILL BE REACHED PRIOR TO 3
AM BEFORE SOME CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. WE EXPANDED MENTIONS OF PATCHY FROST TO
COVER MUCH OF THE REGION INLAND FROM US-17.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...THINKING ON GENERAL SCENARIO FOR MONDAY REMAINS LITTLE
CHANGED. WEAK BAND OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER SUPPORT DURING THE MORNING WILL COME FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR MODEST UPWARD
MOTION...SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS. WITH DEW POINTS NO HIGHER
THAN THE 40S...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO SQUEEZE MUCH QPF OUT DURING THE
MORNING AS THE LINE MOVES QUICKLY FROM THE UPSTATE INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER SUPPORT DIMINISHES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL NOTICEABLY WARMER AS
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS MORE OF A CHANCE FOR SOME BROKEN SUNSHINE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THEREFORE...WHILE THE POPS ACTUALLY DECREASE A BIT
LATER IN THE DAY...SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...SO I
HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH...WITH
THE COOLEST TEMPS DUE TO EARLIER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MORE THAN
ANYTHING ELSE.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE LINGERING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING. AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE PACIFIC RATHER THAN POLAR
REGIONS...SO LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50
AT THE COAST.

TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER JET PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND
FLORIDA...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER
GEORGIA. THE NAM HITS THAT THERE COULD SOME SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...OR MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM AS TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE
70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT MY CURRENT BELIEF IS THAT THIS WILL
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND THE DAY WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PALTRY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...AND ANOTHER
UNINSPIRING JET MAX...SO I HAVE GONE A LITTLE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE AND
CAPPED THE POPS AT 20 PERCENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND...OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD BE MILDER...HOLDING IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CALLING THE
HIGH A WEAK WEDGE MIGHT BE GIVING IT TOO MUCH CREDIT...BUT IT WILL
ACT TO ALLOW THE WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S NEAR THE COAST. INLAND...THE LOW LEVELS WILL
BE WARMING WITH 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING 16 TO 18 C BY AFTERNOON IN THE
GEORGIA COUNTIES. NORMAL MIXING DOWN BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXACT
FINAL RESTING PLACE OF THE FRONT...I HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. MINIMAL CHANCES FOR A
BRIEF SHOWER EITHER SIDE OF MIDDAY ON MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY FROM MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON. WSW TO SW FLOW
COULD BRIEFLY EXCEED 15G25KT BY A FEW KNOTS DURING THE TIME WHEN
THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY VEER TO SOUTHWEST
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY
PROGRESSES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
WILL SUPPORT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KT ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS 2 TO 3
FT ON AVERAGE OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE
A FEW HOURS JUST BELOW SCA WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON COUNTY
AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6
PM...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY FUTURE SHIFTS. ANY
INCREASES IN WINDS WOULD CAUSE THE NEED OF AN SCA.

WINDS WILL COME DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES AWAY
AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND...CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO COLLAPSE.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CURRENTLY I THINK WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
THAT FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...CAUSING MARINE WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST...THEN
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AGAIN WINDS SHOULD
BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FWA
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 300500
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
100 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH
FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WARMER ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS TRANSLATED OFF THE COAST
THIS EVENING. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT AND INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN TEMP
READINGS THAT SHOULD STEADY OUT BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM...PERHAPS RISE
NEARING DAYBREAK.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN THE
CENTRAL CORRIDOR AND CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE HIGH...UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S MOST ELSEWHERE. MINIMUMS WILL BE REACHED PRIOR TO 3
AM BEFORE SOME CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. WE EXPANDED MENTIONS OF PATCHY FROST TO
COVER MUCH OF THE REGION INLAND FROM US-17.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...THINKING ON GENERAL SCENARIO FOR MONDAY REMAINS LITTLE
CHANGED. WEAK BAND OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER SUPPORT DURING THE MORNING WILL COME FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR MODEST UPWARD
MOTION...SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS. WITH DEW POINTS NO HIGHER
THAN THE 40S...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO SQUEEZE MUCH QPF OUT DURING THE
MORNING AS THE LINE MOVES QUICKLY FROM THE UPSTATE INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER SUPPORT DIMINISHES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL NOTICEABLY WARMER AS
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS MORE OF A CHANCE FOR SOME BROKEN SUNSHINE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THEREFORE...WHILE THE POPS ACTUALLY DECREASE A BIT
LATER IN THE DAY...SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...SO I
HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH...WITH
THE COOLEST TEMPS DUE TO EARLIER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MORE THAN
ANYTHING ELSE.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE LINGERING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING. AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE PACIFIC RATHER THAN POLAR
REGIONS...SO LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50
AT THE COAST.

TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER JET PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND
FLORIDA...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER
GEORGIA. THE NAM HITS THAT THERE COULD SOME SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...OR MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM AS TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE
70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT MY CURRENT BELIEF IS THAT THIS WILL
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND THE DAY WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PALTRY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...AND ANOTHER
UNINSPIRING JET MAX...SO I HAVE GONE A LITTLE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE AND
CAPPED THE POPS AT 20 PERCENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND...OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD BE MILDER...HOLDING IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CALLING THE
HIGH A WEAK WEDGE MIGHT BE GIVING IT TOO MUCH CREDIT...BUT IT WILL
ACT TO ALLOW THE WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S NEAR THE COAST. INLAND...THE LOW LEVELS WILL
BE WARMING WITH 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING 16 TO 18 C BY AFTERNOON IN THE
GEORGIA COUNTIES. NORMAL MIXING DOWN BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXACT
FINAL RESTING PLACE OF THE FRONT...I HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. MINIMAL CHANCES FOR A
BRIEF SHOWER EITHER SIDE OF MIDDAY ON MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY FROM MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON. WSW TO SW FLOW
COULD BRIEFLY EXCEED 15G25KT BY A FEW KNOTS DURING THE TIME WHEN
THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY VEER TO SOUTHWEST
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY
PROGRESSES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
WILL SUPPORT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KT ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS 2 TO 3
FT ON AVERAGE OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE
A FEW HOURS JUST BELOW SCA WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON COUNTY
AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6
PM...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY FUTURE SHIFTS. ANY
INCREASES IN WINDS WOULD CAUSE THE NEED OF AN SCA.

WINDS WILL COME DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES AWAY
AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND...CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO COLLAPSE.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CURRENTLY I THINK WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
THAT FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...CAUSING MARINE WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST...THEN
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AGAIN WINDS SHOULD
BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FWA
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 300500
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
100 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH
FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WARMER ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS TRANSLATED OFF THE COAST
THIS EVENING. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT AND INCREASING
SW FLOW ATOP THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN TEMP
READINGS THAT SHOULD STEADY OUT BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM...PERHAPS RISE
NEARING DAYBREAK.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN THE
CENTRAL CORRIDOR AND CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE HIGH...UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S MOST ELSEWHERE. MINIMUMS WILL BE REACHED PRIOR TO 3
AM BEFORE SOME CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. WE EXPANDED MENTIONS OF PATCHY FROST TO
COVER MUCH OF THE REGION INLAND FROM US-17.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...THINKING ON GENERAL SCENARIO FOR MONDAY REMAINS LITTLE
CHANGED. WEAK BAND OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER SUPPORT DURING THE MORNING WILL COME FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR MODEST UPWARD
MOTION...SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS. WITH DEW POINTS NO HIGHER
THAN THE 40S...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO SQUEEZE MUCH QPF OUT DURING THE
MORNING AS THE LINE MOVES QUICKLY FROM THE UPSTATE INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER SUPPORT DIMINISHES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL NOTICEABLY WARMER AS
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS MORE OF A CHANCE FOR SOME BROKEN SUNSHINE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THEREFORE...WHILE THE POPS ACTUALLY DECREASE A BIT
LATER IN THE DAY...SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...SO I
HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH...WITH
THE COOLEST TEMPS DUE TO EARLIER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MORE THAN
ANYTHING ELSE.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE LINGERING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING. AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE PACIFIC RATHER THAN POLAR
REGIONS...SO LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50
AT THE COAST.

TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER JET PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND
FLORIDA...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER
GEORGIA. THE NAM HITS THAT THERE COULD SOME SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...OR MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM AS TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE
70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT MY CURRENT BELIEF IS THAT THIS WILL
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND THE DAY WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PALTRY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...AND ANOTHER
UNINSPIRING JET MAX...SO I HAVE GONE A LITTLE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE AND
CAPPED THE POPS AT 20 PERCENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND...OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD BE MILDER...HOLDING IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CALLING THE
HIGH A WEAK WEDGE MIGHT BE GIVING IT TOO MUCH CREDIT...BUT IT WILL
ACT TO ALLOW THE WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S NEAR THE COAST. INLAND...THE LOW LEVELS WILL
BE WARMING WITH 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING 16 TO 18 C BY AFTERNOON IN THE
GEORGIA COUNTIES. NORMAL MIXING DOWN BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXACT
FINAL RESTING PLACE OF THE FRONT...I HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. MINIMAL CHANCES FOR A
BRIEF SHOWER EITHER SIDE OF MIDDAY ON MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY FROM MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON. WSW TO SW FLOW
COULD BRIEFLY EXCEED 15G25KT BY A FEW KNOTS DURING THE TIME WHEN
THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY VEER TO SOUTHWEST
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY
PROGRESSES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
WILL SUPPORT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KT ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS 2 TO 3
FT ON AVERAGE OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE
A FEW HOURS JUST BELOW SCA WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON COUNTY
AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6
PM...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY FUTURE SHIFTS. ANY
INCREASES IN WINDS WOULD CAUSE THE NEED OF AN SCA.

WINDS WILL COME DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES AWAY
AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND...CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO COLLAPSE.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CURRENTLY I THINK WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
THAT FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...CAUSING MARINE WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST...THEN
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AGAIN WINDS SHOULD
BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FWA
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KFFC 300302
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015



.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HIGH RES MODELS IN LINE WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
SHIELD MOVING INTO NW GA AROUND 08Z AND INTO THE METRO BY 11Z.
RAIN ENDS IN ATL METRO AND POINTS NORTH BY 15Z AS AREA SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO MCN TO CSG AREA...AND BECOMES LESS UNIFORM. LOCAL WRF
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDER BY 18Z ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CSG TO MCN LINE AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS...BUT WOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED. RAIN THREAT ENDS SOUTH BY
21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

..UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...GENERALLY IN THE
4K TO 6K FT RANGE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN LOWERING AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BAND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE AROUND 08Z. HI RES LOCAL
MODELS AND HRRR GENERALLY AGREE ON ABOUT 11Z FOR THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE RAIN INTO ATL WITH THE BACK EDGE MOVING OUT AROUND 15Z OR
SO. HAVE ALSO KEPT IFR CIGS IN WITH THE RAIN AND WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE LOWER END VALUES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AM.
WINDS MAY GO 160-180 AT ATL IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING
AROUND TO 200-230 BY 11Z WITH THE RAIN BAND BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AM INTO THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CIGS AND WINDS MEDIUM.
HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  68  43  77 /  20  70   0   5
ATLANTA         46  67  46  74 /  40  70   0  30
BLAIRSVILLE     41  61  37  70 /  70  30   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    46  68  42  73 /  70  70   0  30
COLUMBUS        48  72  50  76 /   5  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     45  65  43  72 /  60  70   0  10
MACON           45  70  46  75 /   5  40  10  20
ROME            47  68  41  74 /  80  50   0  30
PEACHTREE CITY  46  68  43  75 /  10  60   5  30
VIDALIA         41  72  50  78 /   5  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS62 KFFC 300302
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015



.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HIGH RES MODELS IN LINE WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
SHIELD MOVING INTO NW GA AROUND 08Z AND INTO THE METRO BY 11Z.
RAIN ENDS IN ATL METRO AND POINTS NORTH BY 15Z AS AREA SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO MCN TO CSG AREA...AND BECOMES LESS UNIFORM. LOCAL WRF
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDER BY 18Z ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CSG TO MCN LINE AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS...BUT WOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED. RAIN THREAT ENDS SOUTH BY
21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

..UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...GENERALLY IN THE
4K TO 6K FT RANGE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN LOWERING AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BAND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE AROUND 08Z. HI RES LOCAL
MODELS AND HRRR GENERALLY AGREE ON ABOUT 11Z FOR THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE RAIN INTO ATL WITH THE BACK EDGE MOVING OUT AROUND 15Z OR
SO. HAVE ALSO KEPT IFR CIGS IN WITH THE RAIN AND WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE LOWER END VALUES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AM.
WINDS MAY GO 160-180 AT ATL IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING
AROUND TO 200-230 BY 11Z WITH THE RAIN BAND BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AM INTO THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CIGS AND WINDS MEDIUM.
HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  68  43  77 /  20  70   0   5
ATLANTA         46  67  46  74 /  40  70   0  30
BLAIRSVILLE     41  61  37  70 /  70  30   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    46  68  42  73 /  70  70   0  30
COLUMBUS        48  72  50  76 /   5  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     45  65  43  72 /  60  70   0  10
MACON           45  70  46  75 /   5  40  10  20
ROME            47  68  41  74 /  80  50   0  30
PEACHTREE CITY  46  68  43  75 /  10  60   5  30
VIDALIA         41  72  50  78 /   5  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS62 KFFC 300302
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015



.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HIGH RES MODELS IN LINE WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
SHIELD MOVING INTO NW GA AROUND 08Z AND INTO THE METRO BY 11Z.
RAIN ENDS IN ATL METRO AND POINTS NORTH BY 15Z AS AREA SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO MCN TO CSG AREA...AND BECOMES LESS UNIFORM. LOCAL WRF
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDER BY 18Z ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CSG TO MCN LINE AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS...BUT WOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED. RAIN THREAT ENDS SOUTH BY
21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

..UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...GENERALLY IN THE
4K TO 6K FT RANGE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN LOWERING AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BAND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE AROUND 08Z. HI RES LOCAL
MODELS AND HRRR GENERALLY AGREE ON ABOUT 11Z FOR THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE RAIN INTO ATL WITH THE BACK EDGE MOVING OUT AROUND 15Z OR
SO. HAVE ALSO KEPT IFR CIGS IN WITH THE RAIN AND WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE LOWER END VALUES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AM.
WINDS MAY GO 160-180 AT ATL IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING
AROUND TO 200-230 BY 11Z WITH THE RAIN BAND BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AM INTO THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CIGS AND WINDS MEDIUM.
HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  68  43  77 /  20  70   0   5
ATLANTA         46  67  46  74 /  40  70   0  30
BLAIRSVILLE     41  61  37  70 /  70  30   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    46  68  42  73 /  70  70   0  30
COLUMBUS        48  72  50  76 /   5  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     45  65  43  72 /  60  70   0  10
MACON           45  70  46  75 /   5  40  10  20
ROME            47  68  41  74 /  80  50   0  30
PEACHTREE CITY  46  68  43  75 /  10  60   5  30
VIDALIA         41  72  50  78 /   5  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS62 KFFC 300302
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015



.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HIGH RES MODELS IN LINE WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
SHIELD MOVING INTO NW GA AROUND 08Z AND INTO THE METRO BY 11Z.
RAIN ENDS IN ATL METRO AND POINTS NORTH BY 15Z AS AREA SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO MCN TO CSG AREA...AND BECOMES LESS UNIFORM. LOCAL WRF
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDER BY 18Z ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CSG TO MCN LINE AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS...BUT WOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED. RAIN THREAT ENDS SOUTH BY
21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

..UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...GENERALLY IN THE
4K TO 6K FT RANGE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN LOWERING AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BAND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE AROUND 08Z. HI RES LOCAL
MODELS AND HRRR GENERALLY AGREE ON ABOUT 11Z FOR THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE RAIN INTO ATL WITH THE BACK EDGE MOVING OUT AROUND 15Z OR
SO. HAVE ALSO KEPT IFR CIGS IN WITH THE RAIN AND WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE LOWER END VALUES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AM.
WINDS MAY GO 160-180 AT ATL IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING
AROUND TO 200-230 BY 11Z WITH THE RAIN BAND BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AM INTO THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CIGS AND WINDS MEDIUM.
HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  68  43  77 /  20  70   0   5
ATLANTA         46  67  46  74 /  40  70   0  30
BLAIRSVILLE     41  61  37  70 /  70  30   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    46  68  42  73 /  70  70   0  30
COLUMBUS        48  72  50  76 /   5  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     45  65  43  72 /  60  70   0  10
MACON           45  70  46  75 /   5  40  10  20
ROME            47  68  41  74 /  80  50   0  30
PEACHTREE CITY  46  68  43  75 /  10  60   5  30
VIDALIA         41  72  50  78 /   5  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS62 KFFC 300302
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015



.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HIGH RES MODELS IN LINE WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
SHIELD MOVING INTO NW GA AROUND 08Z AND INTO THE METRO BY 11Z.
RAIN ENDS IN ATL METRO AND POINTS NORTH BY 15Z AS AREA SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO MCN TO CSG AREA...AND BECOMES LESS UNIFORM. LOCAL WRF
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDER BY 18Z ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CSG TO MCN LINE AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS...BUT WOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED. RAIN THREAT ENDS SOUTH BY
21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

..UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...GENERALLY IN THE
4K TO 6K FT RANGE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN LOWERING AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BAND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE AROUND 08Z. HI RES LOCAL
MODELS AND HRRR GENERALLY AGREE ON ABOUT 11Z FOR THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE RAIN INTO ATL WITH THE BACK EDGE MOVING OUT AROUND 15Z OR
SO. HAVE ALSO KEPT IFR CIGS IN WITH THE RAIN AND WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE LOWER END VALUES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AM.
WINDS MAY GO 160-180 AT ATL IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING
AROUND TO 200-230 BY 11Z WITH THE RAIN BAND BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AM INTO THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CIGS AND WINDS MEDIUM.
HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  68  43  77 /  20  70   0   5
ATLANTA         46  67  46  74 /  40  70   0  30
BLAIRSVILLE     41  61  37  70 /  70  30   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    46  68  42  73 /  70  70   0  30
COLUMBUS        48  72  50  76 /   5  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     45  65  43  72 /  60  70   0  10
MACON           45  70  46  75 /   5  40  10  20
ROME            47  68  41  74 /  80  50   0  30
PEACHTREE CITY  46  68  43  75 /  10  60   5  30
VIDALIA         41  72  50  78 /   5  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS62 KFFC 300302
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015



.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HIGH RES MODELS IN LINE WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
SHIELD MOVING INTO NW GA AROUND 08Z AND INTO THE METRO BY 11Z.
RAIN ENDS IN ATL METRO AND POINTS NORTH BY 15Z AS AREA SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO MCN TO CSG AREA...AND BECOMES LESS UNIFORM. LOCAL WRF
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDER BY 18Z ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CSG TO MCN LINE AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS...BUT WOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED. RAIN THREAT ENDS SOUTH BY
21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

..UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...GENERALLY IN THE
4K TO 6K FT RANGE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN LOWERING AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BAND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE AROUND 08Z. HI RES LOCAL
MODELS AND HRRR GENERALLY AGREE ON ABOUT 11Z FOR THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE RAIN INTO ATL WITH THE BACK EDGE MOVING OUT AROUND 15Z OR
SO. HAVE ALSO KEPT IFR CIGS IN WITH THE RAIN AND WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE LOWER END VALUES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AM.
WINDS MAY GO 160-180 AT ATL IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING
AROUND TO 200-230 BY 11Z WITH THE RAIN BAND BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AM INTO THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CIGS AND WINDS MEDIUM.
HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  68  43  77 /  20  70   0   5
ATLANTA         46  67  46  74 /  40  70   0  30
BLAIRSVILLE     41  61  37  70 /  70  30   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    46  68  42  73 /  70  70   0  30
COLUMBUS        48  72  50  76 /   5  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     45  65  43  72 /  60  70   0  10
MACON           45  70  46  75 /   5  40  10  20
ROME            47  68  41  74 /  80  50   0  30
PEACHTREE CITY  46  68  43  75 /  10  60   5  30
VIDALIA         41  72  50  78 /   5  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS62 KCHS 300151
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
951 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH
FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WARMER ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS TRANSLATED OFF THE COAST
THIS EVENING. TEMPS HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN INTO THE 40S SINCE SUNSET
MOST AREAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE REALIGNMENT HAS ALLOWED A LATE DAY
SHALLOW ATLC MOISTURE BOUNDARY TO PRESS INLAND AND SURFACE DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 30S FROM TEENS AND 20S FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT AND
INCREASING SW FLOW ATOP THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMP READINGS THAT SHOULD STEADY OUT OVERNIGHT THEN PERHAPS RISE
NEARING DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY IF SOME WARM AIR ADVECION STRATOCU
OR ALTOCU DEVELOP LATER ON.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY REGION TO THE LOW 40S ELSEWHERE...WITH MINIMUMS
REACHED PRIOR TO 3 AM BEFORE SOME CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. WE EXPANDED MENTIONS
OF PATCHY FROST OVER INLAND AREAS OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA BUT OVERALL
GENERAL TRENDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...THINKING ON GENERAL SCENARIO FOR MONDAY REMAINS LITTLE
CHANGED. WEAK BAND OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER SUPPORT DURING THE MORNING WILL COME FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR MODEST UPWARD
MOTION...SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS. WITH DEW POINTS NO HIGHER
THAN THE 40S...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO SQUEEZE MUCH QPF OUT DURING THE
MORNING AS THE LINE MOVES QUICKLY FROM THE UPSTATE INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER SUPPORT DIMINISHES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL NOTICEABLY WARMER AS
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS MORE OF A CHANCE FOR SOME BROKEN SUNSHINE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THEREFORE...WHILE THE POPS ACTUALLY DECREASE A BIT
LATER IN THE DAY...SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...SO I
HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH...WITH
THE COOLEST TEMPS DUE TO EARLIER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MORE THAN
ANYTHING ELSE.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE LINGERING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING. AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE PACIFIC RATHER THAN POLAR
REGIONS...SO LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50
AT THE COAST.

TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER JET PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND
FLORIDA...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER
GEORGIA. THE NAM HITS THAT THERE COULD SOME SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...OR MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM AS TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE
70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT MY CURRENT BELIEF IS THAT THIS WILL
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND THE DAY WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PALTRY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...AND ANOTHER
UNINSPIRING JET MAX...SO I HAVE GONE A LITTLE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE AND
CAPPED THE POPS AT 20 PERCENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND...OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD BE MILDER...HOLDING IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CALLING THE
HIGH A WEAK WEDGE MIGHT BE GIVING IT TOO MUCH CREDIT...BUT IT WILL
ACT TO ALLOW THE WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S NEAR THE COAST. INLAND...THE LOW LEVELS WILL
BE WARMING WITH 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING 16 TO 18 C BY AFTERNOON IN THE
GEORGIA COUNTIES. NORMAL MIXING DOWN BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXACT
FINAL RESTING PLACE OF THE FRONT...I HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. MINIMAL CHANCES FOR A
BRIEF SHOWER EITHER SIDE OF MIDDAY ON MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY FROM MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON. WSW TO SW FLOW
COULD BRIEFLY EXCEED 15G25KT BY A FEW KNOTS DURING THE TIME WHEN
THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY VEER TO SOUTHWEST
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY
PROGRESSES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL SUPPORT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KT ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON AVERAGE OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE
A FEW HOURS JUST BELOW SCA WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON COUNTY
AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6
PM...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY FUTURE SHIFTS. ANY
INCREASES IN WINDS WOULD CAUSE THE NEED OF AN SCA.

WINDS WILL COME DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES AWAY
AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND...CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO COLLAPSE.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CURRENTLY I THINK WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
THAT FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...CAUSING MARINE WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST...THEN
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AGAIN WINDS SHOULD
BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FWA
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 300151
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
951 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH
FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WARMER ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS TRANSLATED OFF THE COAST
THIS EVENING. TEMPS HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN INTO THE 40S SINCE SUNSET
MOST AREAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE REALIGNMENT HAS ALLOWED A LATE DAY
SHALLOW ATLC MOISTURE BOUNDARY TO PRESS INLAND AND SURFACE DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 30S FROM TEENS AND 20S FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT AND
INCREASING SW FLOW ATOP THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMP READINGS THAT SHOULD STEADY OUT OVERNIGHT THEN PERHAPS RISE
NEARING DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY IF SOME WARM AIR ADVECION STRATOCU
OR ALTOCU DEVELOP LATER ON.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY REGION TO THE LOW 40S ELSEWHERE...WITH MINIMUMS
REACHED PRIOR TO 3 AM BEFORE SOME CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. WE EXPANDED MENTIONS
OF PATCHY FROST OVER INLAND AREAS OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA BUT OVERALL
GENERAL TRENDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...THINKING ON GENERAL SCENARIO FOR MONDAY REMAINS LITTLE
CHANGED. WEAK BAND OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER SUPPORT DURING THE MORNING WILL COME FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR MODEST UPWARD
MOTION...SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS. WITH DEW POINTS NO HIGHER
THAN THE 40S...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO SQUEEZE MUCH QPF OUT DURING THE
MORNING AS THE LINE MOVES QUICKLY FROM THE UPSTATE INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER SUPPORT DIMINISHES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL NOTICEABLY WARMER AS
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS MORE OF A CHANCE FOR SOME BROKEN SUNSHINE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THEREFORE...WHILE THE POPS ACTUALLY DECREASE A BIT
LATER IN THE DAY...SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...SO I
HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH...WITH
THE COOLEST TEMPS DUE TO EARLIER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MORE THAN
ANYTHING ELSE.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE LINGERING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING. AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE PACIFIC RATHER THAN POLAR
REGIONS...SO LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50
AT THE COAST.

TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER JET PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND
FLORIDA...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER
GEORGIA. THE NAM HITS THAT THERE COULD SOME SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...OR MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM AS TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE
70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT MY CURRENT BELIEF IS THAT THIS WILL
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND THE DAY WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PALTRY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...AND ANOTHER
UNINSPIRING JET MAX...SO I HAVE GONE A LITTLE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE AND
CAPPED THE POPS AT 20 PERCENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND...OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD BE MILDER...HOLDING IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CALLING THE
HIGH A WEAK WEDGE MIGHT BE GIVING IT TOO MUCH CREDIT...BUT IT WILL
ACT TO ALLOW THE WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S NEAR THE COAST. INLAND...THE LOW LEVELS WILL
BE WARMING WITH 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING 16 TO 18 C BY AFTERNOON IN THE
GEORGIA COUNTIES. NORMAL MIXING DOWN BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXACT
FINAL RESTING PLACE OF THE FRONT...I HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. MINIMAL CHANCES FOR A
BRIEF SHOWER EITHER SIDE OF MIDDAY ON MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY FROM MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON. WSW TO SW FLOW
COULD BRIEFLY EXCEED 15G25KT BY A FEW KNOTS DURING THE TIME WHEN
THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY VEER TO SOUTHWEST
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY
PROGRESSES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL SUPPORT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KT ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON AVERAGE OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE
A FEW HOURS JUST BELOW SCA WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON COUNTY
AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6
PM...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY FUTURE SHIFTS. ANY
INCREASES IN WINDS WOULD CAUSE THE NEED OF AN SCA.

WINDS WILL COME DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES AWAY
AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND...CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO COLLAPSE.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CURRENTLY I THINK WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
THAT FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...CAUSING MARINE WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST...THEN
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AGAIN WINDS SHOULD
BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FWA
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 300151
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
951 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH
FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WARMER ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS TRANSLATED OFF THE COAST
THIS EVENING. TEMPS HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN INTO THE 40S SINCE SUNSET
MOST AREAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE REALIGNMENT HAS ALLOWED A LATE DAY
SHALLOW ATLC MOISTURE BOUNDARY TO PRESS INLAND AND SURFACE DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 30S FROM TEENS AND 20S FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT AND
INCREASING SW FLOW ATOP THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMP READINGS THAT SHOULD STEADY OUT OVERNIGHT THEN PERHAPS RISE
NEARING DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY IF SOME WARM AIR ADVECION STRATOCU
OR ALTOCU DEVELOP LATER ON.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY REGION TO THE LOW 40S ELSEWHERE...WITH MINIMUMS
REACHED PRIOR TO 3 AM BEFORE SOME CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. WE EXPANDED MENTIONS
OF PATCHY FROST OVER INLAND AREAS OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA BUT OVERALL
GENERAL TRENDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...THINKING ON GENERAL SCENARIO FOR MONDAY REMAINS LITTLE
CHANGED. WEAK BAND OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER SUPPORT DURING THE MORNING WILL COME FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR MODEST UPWARD
MOTION...SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS. WITH DEW POINTS NO HIGHER
THAN THE 40S...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO SQUEEZE MUCH QPF OUT DURING THE
MORNING AS THE LINE MOVES QUICKLY FROM THE UPSTATE INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER SUPPORT DIMINISHES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL NOTICEABLY WARMER AS
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS MORE OF A CHANCE FOR SOME BROKEN SUNSHINE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THEREFORE...WHILE THE POPS ACTUALLY DECREASE A BIT
LATER IN THE DAY...SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...SO I
HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH...WITH
THE COOLEST TEMPS DUE TO EARLIER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MORE THAN
ANYTHING ELSE.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE LINGERING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING. AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE PACIFIC RATHER THAN POLAR
REGIONS...SO LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50
AT THE COAST.

TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER JET PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND
FLORIDA...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER
GEORGIA. THE NAM HITS THAT THERE COULD SOME SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...OR MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM AS TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE
70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT MY CURRENT BELIEF IS THAT THIS WILL
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND THE DAY WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PALTRY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...AND ANOTHER
UNINSPIRING JET MAX...SO I HAVE GONE A LITTLE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE AND
CAPPED THE POPS AT 20 PERCENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND...OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD BE MILDER...HOLDING IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CALLING THE
HIGH A WEAK WEDGE MIGHT BE GIVING IT TOO MUCH CREDIT...BUT IT WILL
ACT TO ALLOW THE WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S NEAR THE COAST. INLAND...THE LOW LEVELS WILL
BE WARMING WITH 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING 16 TO 18 C BY AFTERNOON IN THE
GEORGIA COUNTIES. NORMAL MIXING DOWN BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXACT
FINAL RESTING PLACE OF THE FRONT...I HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. MINIMAL CHANCES FOR A
BRIEF SHOWER EITHER SIDE OF MIDDAY ON MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY FROM MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON. WSW TO SW FLOW
COULD BRIEFLY EXCEED 15G25KT BY A FEW KNOTS DURING THE TIME WHEN
THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY VEER TO SOUTHWEST
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY
PROGRESSES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL SUPPORT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KT ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON AVERAGE OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE
A FEW HOURS JUST BELOW SCA WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON COUNTY
AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6
PM...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY FUTURE SHIFTS. ANY
INCREASES IN WINDS WOULD CAUSE THE NEED OF AN SCA.

WINDS WILL COME DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES AWAY
AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND...CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO COLLAPSE.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CURRENTLY I THINK WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
THAT FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...CAUSING MARINE WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST...THEN
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AGAIN WINDS SHOULD
BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FWA
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 300151
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
951 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH
FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WARMER ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS TRANSLATED OFF THE COAST
THIS EVENING. TEMPS HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN INTO THE 40S SINCE SUNSET
MOST AREAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE REALIGNMENT HAS ALLOWED A LATE DAY
SHALLOW ATLC MOISTURE BOUNDARY TO PRESS INLAND AND SURFACE DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 30S FROM TEENS AND 20S FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT AND
INCREASING SW FLOW ATOP THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMP READINGS THAT SHOULD STEADY OUT OVERNIGHT THEN PERHAPS RISE
NEARING DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY IF SOME WARM AIR ADVECION STRATOCU
OR ALTOCU DEVELOP LATER ON.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY REGION TO THE LOW 40S ELSEWHERE...WITH MINIMUMS
REACHED PRIOR TO 3 AM BEFORE SOME CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. WE EXPANDED MENTIONS
OF PATCHY FROST OVER INLAND AREAS OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA BUT OVERALL
GENERAL TRENDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...THINKING ON GENERAL SCENARIO FOR MONDAY REMAINS LITTLE
CHANGED. WEAK BAND OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER SUPPORT DURING THE MORNING WILL COME FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR MODEST UPWARD
MOTION...SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS. WITH DEW POINTS NO HIGHER
THAN THE 40S...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO SQUEEZE MUCH QPF OUT DURING THE
MORNING AS THE LINE MOVES QUICKLY FROM THE UPSTATE INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER SUPPORT DIMINISHES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL NOTICEABLY WARMER AS
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS MORE OF A CHANCE FOR SOME BROKEN SUNSHINE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THEREFORE...WHILE THE POPS ACTUALLY DECREASE A BIT
LATER IN THE DAY...SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...SO I
HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH...WITH
THE COOLEST TEMPS DUE TO EARLIER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MORE THAN
ANYTHING ELSE.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE LINGERING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING. AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE PACIFIC RATHER THAN POLAR
REGIONS...SO LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50
AT THE COAST.

TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER JET PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND
FLORIDA...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER
GEORGIA. THE NAM HITS THAT THERE COULD SOME SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...OR MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM AS TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE
70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT MY CURRENT BELIEF IS THAT THIS WILL
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND THE DAY WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PALTRY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...AND ANOTHER
UNINSPIRING JET MAX...SO I HAVE GONE A LITTLE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE AND
CAPPED THE POPS AT 20 PERCENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND...OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD BE MILDER...HOLDING IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CALLING THE
HIGH A WEAK WEDGE MIGHT BE GIVING IT TOO MUCH CREDIT...BUT IT WILL
ACT TO ALLOW THE WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S NEAR THE COAST. INLAND...THE LOW LEVELS WILL
BE WARMING WITH 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING 16 TO 18 C BY AFTERNOON IN THE
GEORGIA COUNTIES. NORMAL MIXING DOWN BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXACT
FINAL RESTING PLACE OF THE FRONT...I HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. MINIMAL CHANCES FOR A
BRIEF SHOWER EITHER SIDE OF MIDDAY ON MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY FROM MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON. WSW TO SW FLOW
COULD BRIEFLY EXCEED 15G25KT BY A FEW KNOTS DURING THE TIME WHEN
THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY VEER TO SOUTHWEST
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY
PROGRESSES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL SUPPORT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KT ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON AVERAGE OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE
A FEW HOURS JUST BELOW SCA WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON COUNTY
AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6
PM...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY FUTURE SHIFTS. ANY
INCREASES IN WINDS WOULD CAUSE THE NEED OF AN SCA.

WINDS WILL COME DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES AWAY
AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND...CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO COLLAPSE.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CURRENTLY I THINK WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
THAT FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...CAUSING MARINE WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST...THEN
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AGAIN WINDS SHOULD
BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FWA
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCAE 300131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
931 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST. MOISTURE WAS SLOWLY
RETURNING ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH MISSOURI TO TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING THE WEAK COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA. CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN GA WILL
SPREAD INTO THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THE OCCURRENCE FROST
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH BKN035
TO BKN045 FM 03Z-07Z TONIGHT. WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR
MONDAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO
EAST FROPA ACROSS THE FA FM 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
931 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST. MOISTURE WAS SLOWLY
RETURNING ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH MISSOURI TO TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING THE WEAK COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA. CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN GA WILL
SPREAD INTO THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THE OCCURRENCE FROST
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH BKN035
TO BKN045 FM 03Z-07Z TONIGHT. WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR
MONDAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO
EAST FROPA ACROSS THE FA FM 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 300131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
931 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST. MOISTURE WAS SLOWLY
RETURNING ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH MISSOURI TO TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING THE WEAK COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA. CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN GA WILL
SPREAD INTO THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THE OCCURRENCE FROST
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH BKN035
TO BKN045 FM 03Z-07Z TONIGHT. WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR
MONDAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO
EAST FROPA ACROSS THE FA FM 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
931 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST. MOISTURE WAS SLOWLY
RETURNING ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH MISSOURI TO TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING THE WEAK COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA. CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN GA WILL
SPREAD INTO THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THE OCCURRENCE FROST
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH BKN035
TO BKN045 FM 03Z-07Z TONIGHT. WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR
MONDAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO
EAST FROPA ACROSS THE FA FM 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
931 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST. MOISTURE WAS SLOWLY
RETURNING ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH MISSOURI TO TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING THE WEAK COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA. CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN GA WILL
SPREAD INTO THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THE OCCURRENCE FROST
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH BKN035
TO BKN045 FM 03Z-07Z TONIGHT. WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR
MONDAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO
EAST FROPA ACROSS THE FA FM 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
931 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST. MOISTURE WAS SLOWLY
RETURNING ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH MISSOURI TO TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING THE WEAK COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA. CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN GA WILL
SPREAD INTO THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THE OCCURRENCE FROST
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH BKN035
TO BKN045 FM 03Z-07Z TONIGHT. WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR
MONDAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO
EAST FROPA ACROSS THE FA FM 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 300016
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
816 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...GENERALLY IN THE
4K TO 6K FT RANGE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN LOWERING AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BAND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE AROUND 08Z. HI RES LOCAL
MODELS AND HRRR GENERALLY AGREE ON ABOUT 11Z FOR THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE RAIN INTO ATL WITH THE BACK EDGE MOVING OUT AROUND 15Z OR
SO. HAVE ALSO KEPT IFR CIGS IN WITH THE RAIN AND WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE LOWER END VALUES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AM.
WINDS MAY GO 160-180 AT ATL IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING
AROUND TO 200-230 BY 11Z WITH THE RAIN BAND BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AM INTO THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CIGS AND WINDS MEDIUM.
HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  68  43  77 /  20  70   0   5
ATLANTA         46  67  46  74 /  40  70   0  30
BLAIRSVILLE     41  61  37  70 /  70  30   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    46  68  42  73 /  70  70   0  30
COLUMBUS        48  72  50  76 /   5  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     45  65  43  72 /  60  70   0  10
MACON           45  70  46  75 /   5  40  10  20
ROME            47  68  41  74 /  80  50   0  30
PEACHTREE CITY  46  68  43  75 /  10  60   5  30
VIDALIA         41  72  50  78 /   5  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS62 KFFC 300016
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
816 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...GENERALLY IN THE
4K TO 6K FT RANGE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN LOWERING AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BAND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE AROUND 08Z. HI RES LOCAL
MODELS AND HRRR GENERALLY AGREE ON ABOUT 11Z FOR THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE RAIN INTO ATL WITH THE BACK EDGE MOVING OUT AROUND 15Z OR
SO. HAVE ALSO KEPT IFR CIGS IN WITH THE RAIN AND WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE LOWER END VALUES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AM.
WINDS MAY GO 160-180 AT ATL IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING
AROUND TO 200-230 BY 11Z WITH THE RAIN BAND BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AM INTO THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CIGS AND WINDS MEDIUM.
HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  68  43  77 /  20  70   0   5
ATLANTA         46  67  46  74 /  40  70   0  30
BLAIRSVILLE     41  61  37  70 /  70  30   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    46  68  42  73 /  70  70   0  30
COLUMBUS        48  72  50  76 /   5  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     45  65  43  72 /  60  70   0  10
MACON           45  70  46  75 /   5  40  10  20
ROME            47  68  41  74 /  80  50   0  30
PEACHTREE CITY  46  68  43  75 /  10  60   5  30
VIDALIA         41  72  50  78 /   5  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS62 KFFC 300016
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
816 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...GENERALLY IN THE
4K TO 6K FT RANGE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN LOWERING AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BAND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE AROUND 08Z. HI RES LOCAL
MODELS AND HRRR GENERALLY AGREE ON ABOUT 11Z FOR THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE RAIN INTO ATL WITH THE BACK EDGE MOVING OUT AROUND 15Z OR
SO. HAVE ALSO KEPT IFR CIGS IN WITH THE RAIN AND WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE LOWER END VALUES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AM.
WINDS MAY GO 160-180 AT ATL IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING
AROUND TO 200-230 BY 11Z WITH THE RAIN BAND BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AM INTO THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CIGS AND WINDS MEDIUM.
HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  68  43  77 /  20  70   0   5
ATLANTA         46  67  46  74 /  40  70   0  30
BLAIRSVILLE     41  61  37  70 /  70  30   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    46  68  42  73 /  70  70   0  30
COLUMBUS        48  72  50  76 /   5  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     45  65  43  72 /  60  70   0  10
MACON           45  70  46  75 /   5  40  10  20
ROME            47  68  41  74 /  80  50   0  30
PEACHTREE CITY  46  68  43  75 /  10  60   5  30
VIDALIA         41  72  50  78 /   5  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS62 KCHS 292333
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
733 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH
FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WARMER ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF
TRANSLATING OFF THE COAST. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN A FREE-FALL AFTER
SUNSET BUT THEN STEADY OUT LATER TONIGHT. DETAILS REGARDING
TEMP TRENDS AND FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW ATOP THE STABLE
SURFACE LAYER OVERNIGHT.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REACH MINIMUMS RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN BEGIN A
SLOW WARMING TREND DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THERE IS A SMALL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 37 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND BERKELEY...DORCHESTER...AND COLLETON
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA THAT PATCHY FROST COULD DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE INTRODUCTION OF A LOW LEVEL
JET TO THE WEST AND THE BRIEF DURATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
IDEAL RANGE WILL PREVENT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. TRENDS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THE EVENING TIME FRAME...AS MORE
RAPID COOLING OR A MORE PERSISTENTLY WEAK GRADIENT COULD SUPPORT
BETTER FROST COVERAGE AND NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A FROST
ADVISORY.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY REGION TO THE LOW 40S ELSEWHERE...WITH MINIMUMS
REACHED AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS AND WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...THINKING ON GENERAL SCENARIO FOR MONDAY REMAINS LITTLE
CHANGED. WEAK BAND OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER SUPPORT DURING THE MORNING WILL COME FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR MODEST UPWARD
MOTION...SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS. WITH DEW POINTS NO HIGHER
THAN THE 40S...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO SQUEEZE MUCH QPF OUT DURING THE
MORNING AS THE LINE MOVES QUICKLY FROM THE UPSTATE INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER SUPPORT DIMINISHES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL NOTICEABLY WARMER AS
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS MORE OF A CHANCE FOR SOME BROKEN SUNSHINE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THEREFORE...WHILE THE POPS ACTUALLY DECREASE A BIT
LATER IN THE DAY...SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...SO I
HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH...WITH
THE COOLEST TEMPS DUE TO EARLIER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MORE THAN
ANYTHING ELSE.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE LINGERING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING. AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE PACIFIC RATHER THAN POLAR
REGIONS...SO LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50
AT THE COAST.

TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER JET PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND
FLORIDA...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER
GEORGIA. THE NAM HITS THAT THERE COULD SOME SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...OR MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM AS TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE
70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT MY CURRENT BELIEF IS THAT THIS WILL
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND THE DAY WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PALTRY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...AND ANOTHER
UNINSPIRING JET MAX...SO I HAVE GONE A LITTLE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE AND
CAPPED THE POPS AT 20 PERCENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND...OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD BE MILDER...HOLDING IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CALLING THE
HIGH A WEAK WEDGE MIGHT BE GIVING IT TOO MUCH CREDIT...BUT IT WILL
ACT TO ALLOW THE WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S NEAR THE COAST. INLAND...THE LOW LEVELS WILL
BE WARMING WITH 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING 16 TO 18 C BY AFTERNOON IN THE
GEORGIA COUNTIES. NORMAL MIXING DOWN BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXACT
FINAL RESTING PLACE OF THE FRONT...I HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. MINIMAL CHANCES FOR A
BRIEF SHOWER EITHER SIDE OF MIDDAY ON MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY FROM MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON. WSW TO SW FLOW
COULD BRIEFLY EXCEED 15G25KT BY A FEW KNOTS DURING THE TIME WHEN
THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY VEER FROM NORTHEAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY SLIPS DIRECTLY OVER THE MARINE
ZONES AND PROGRESSES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL JET AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL SUPPORT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE MARINE ZONES
OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE
A FEW HOURS JUST BELOW SCA WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON COUNTY
AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6
PM...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY FUTURE SHIFTS. ANY
INCREASES IN WINDS WOULD CAUSE THE NEED OF AN SCA.

WINDS WILL COME DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES AWAY
AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND...CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO COLLAPSE.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CURRENTLY I THINK WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
THAT FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...CAUSING MARINE WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST...THEN
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AGAIN WINDS SHOULD
BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FWA
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 292333
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
733 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH
FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WARMER ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF
TRANSLATING OFF THE COAST. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN A FREE-FALL AFTER
SUNSET BUT THEN STEADY OUT LATER TONIGHT. DETAILS REGARDING
TEMP TRENDS AND FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW ATOP THE STABLE
SURFACE LAYER OVERNIGHT.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REACH MINIMUMS RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN BEGIN A
SLOW WARMING TREND DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THERE IS A SMALL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 37 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND BERKELEY...DORCHESTER...AND COLLETON
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA THAT PATCHY FROST COULD DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE INTRODUCTION OF A LOW LEVEL
JET TO THE WEST AND THE BRIEF DURATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
IDEAL RANGE WILL PREVENT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. TRENDS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THE EVENING TIME FRAME...AS MORE
RAPID COOLING OR A MORE PERSISTENTLY WEAK GRADIENT COULD SUPPORT
BETTER FROST COVERAGE AND NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A FROST
ADVISORY.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY REGION TO THE LOW 40S ELSEWHERE...WITH MINIMUMS
REACHED AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS AND WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...THINKING ON GENERAL SCENARIO FOR MONDAY REMAINS LITTLE
CHANGED. WEAK BAND OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER SUPPORT DURING THE MORNING WILL COME FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR MODEST UPWARD
MOTION...SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS. WITH DEW POINTS NO HIGHER
THAN THE 40S...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO SQUEEZE MUCH QPF OUT DURING THE
MORNING AS THE LINE MOVES QUICKLY FROM THE UPSTATE INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER SUPPORT DIMINISHES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL NOTICEABLY WARMER AS
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS MORE OF A CHANCE FOR SOME BROKEN SUNSHINE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THEREFORE...WHILE THE POPS ACTUALLY DECREASE A BIT
LATER IN THE DAY...SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...SO I
HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH...WITH
THE COOLEST TEMPS DUE TO EARLIER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MORE THAN
ANYTHING ELSE.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE LINGERING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING. AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE PACIFIC RATHER THAN POLAR
REGIONS...SO LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50
AT THE COAST.

TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER JET PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND
FLORIDA...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER
GEORGIA. THE NAM HITS THAT THERE COULD SOME SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...OR MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM AS TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE
70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT MY CURRENT BELIEF IS THAT THIS WILL
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND THE DAY WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PALTRY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...AND ANOTHER
UNINSPIRING JET MAX...SO I HAVE GONE A LITTLE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE AND
CAPPED THE POPS AT 20 PERCENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND...OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD BE MILDER...HOLDING IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CALLING THE
HIGH A WEAK WEDGE MIGHT BE GIVING IT TOO MUCH CREDIT...BUT IT WILL
ACT TO ALLOW THE WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S NEAR THE COAST. INLAND...THE LOW LEVELS WILL
BE WARMING WITH 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING 16 TO 18 C BY AFTERNOON IN THE
GEORGIA COUNTIES. NORMAL MIXING DOWN BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXACT
FINAL RESTING PLACE OF THE FRONT...I HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. MINIMAL CHANCES FOR A
BRIEF SHOWER EITHER SIDE OF MIDDAY ON MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY FROM MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON. WSW TO SW FLOW
COULD BRIEFLY EXCEED 15G25KT BY A FEW KNOTS DURING THE TIME WHEN
THE AXIS OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY VEER FROM NORTHEAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY SLIPS DIRECTLY OVER THE MARINE
ZONES AND PROGRESSES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL JET AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL SUPPORT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE MARINE ZONES
OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE
A FEW HOURS JUST BELOW SCA WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON COUNTY
AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6
PM...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY FUTURE SHIFTS. ANY
INCREASES IN WINDS WOULD CAUSE THE NEED OF AN SCA.

WINDS WILL COME DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES AWAY
AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND...CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO COLLAPSE.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CURRENTLY I THINK WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
THAT FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...CAUSING MARINE WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST...THEN
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AGAIN WINDS SHOULD
BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FWA
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCAE 292325
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
725 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. A DRY AIR
MASS WAS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
AND CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT
APPROACHING...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
POPS TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE...LOCAL NUMBERS AND TRENDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER...THE
OCCURRENCE FROST SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH BKN035 TO BKN045 FM 03Z-07Z
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECTY WEST TO EAST FROPA ACROSS THE FA FM 19Z-
22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 292325
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
725 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. A DRY AIR
MASS WAS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
AND CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT
APPROACHING...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
POPS TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE...LOCAL NUMBERS AND TRENDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER...THE
OCCURRENCE FROST SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH BKN035 TO BKN045 FM 03Z-07Z
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECTY WEST TO EAST FROPA ACROSS THE FA FM 19Z-
22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 292127
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
527 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. A DRY AIR
MASS WAS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
AND CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT
APPROACHING...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
POPS TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE...LOCAL NUMBERS AND TRENDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER...THE
OCCURRENCE FROST SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE EVENING. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. WILL LIKELY ONLY PLACE
A VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA AND ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT
OF THE TAF REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 292127
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
527 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. A DRY AIR
MASS WAS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
AND CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT
APPROACHING...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
POPS TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE...LOCAL NUMBERS AND TRENDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER...THE
OCCURRENCE FROST SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE EVENING. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. WILL LIKELY ONLY PLACE
A VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA AND ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT
OF THE TAF REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 292127
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
527 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. A DRY AIR
MASS WAS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
AND CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT
APPROACHING...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
POPS TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE...LOCAL NUMBERS AND TRENDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER...THE
OCCURRENCE FROST SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE EVENING. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. WILL LIKELY ONLY PLACE
A VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA AND ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT
OF THE TAF REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 292127
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
527 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. A DRY AIR
MASS WAS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
AND CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT
APPROACHING...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
POPS TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE...LOCAL NUMBERS AND TRENDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER...THE
OCCURRENCE FROST SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE EVENING. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. WILL LIKELY ONLY PLACE
A VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA AND ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT
OF THE TAF REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 292007
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
407 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH
FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WARMER ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY TRACK SOUTHEAST
OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT...MAINTAINING RATHER QUIET YET COLD
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. DETAILS REGARDING TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...LENDING SOME UNCERTAINTY
TO THE FORECAST.

CONSIDERING SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN PLACE...AS SEEN IN DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO FALL RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
INDICATING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH MINIMUMS RIGHT
AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WHEN TEMPERATURES
FALL TO AROUND 37 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND
BERKELEY...DORCHESTER...AND COLLETON COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA
THAT PATCHY FROST COULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST THINKING IS THAT
THE INTRODUCTION OF A LOW LEVEL JET TO THE WEST AND THE BRIEF
DURATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE IDEAL RANGE WILL PREVENT
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED DURING THE EVENING TIME FRAME...AS MORE RAPID COOLING OR
A MORE PERSISTENTLY WEAK GRADIENT COULD SUPPORT BETTER FROST
COVERAGE AND NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A FROST ADVISORY.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY REGION TO THE LOW 40S ELSEWHERE...WITH MINIMUMS
REACHED AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS AND WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...THINKING ON GENERAL SCENARIO FOR MONDAY REMAINS LITTLE
CHANGED. WEAK BAND OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER SUPPORT DURING THE MORNING WILL COME FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR MODEST UPWARD
MOTION...SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS. WITH DEW POINTS NO HIGHER
THAN THE 40S...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO SQUEEZE MUCH QPF OUT DURING THE
MORNING AS THE LINE MOVES QUICKLY FROM THE UPSTATE INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER SUPPORT DIMINISHES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL NOTICEABLY WARMER AS
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS MORE OF A CHANCE FOR SOME BROKEN SUNSHINE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THEREFORE...WHILE THE POPS ACTUALLY DECREASE A BIT
LATER IN THE DAY...SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...SO I
HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH...WITH
THE COOLEST TEMPS DUE TO EARLIER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MORE THAN
ANYTHING ELSE.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE LINGERING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING. AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE PACIFIC RATHER THAN POLAR
REGIONS...SO LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50
AT THE COAST.

TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER JET PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND
FLORIDA...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER
GEORGIA. THE NAM HITS THAT THERE COULD SOME SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...OR MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM AS TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE
70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT MY CURRENT BELIEF IS THAT THIS WILL
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND THE DAY WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PALTRY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...AND ANOTHER
UNINSPIRING JET MAX...SO I HAVE GONE A LITTLE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE AND
CAPPED THE POPS AT 20 PERCENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND...OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD BE MILDER...HOLDING IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CALLING THE
HIGH A WEAK WEDGE MIGHT BE GIVING IT TOO MUCH CREDIT...BUT IT WILL
ACT TO ALLOW THE WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S NEAR THE COAST. INLAND...THE LOW LEVELS WILL
BE WARMING WITH 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING 16 TO 18 C BY AFTERNOON IN THE
GEORGIA COUNTIES. NORMAL MIXING DOWN BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXACT
FINAL RESTING PLACE OF THE FRONT...I HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY VEER FROM NORTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY SLIPS DIRECTLY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND
PROGRESSES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL SUPPORT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KT ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE
A FEW HOURS JUST BELOW SCA WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON COUNTY
AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6
PM...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY FUTURE SHIFTS. ANY
INCREASES IN WINDS WOULD CAUSE THE NEED OF AN SCA.

WINDS WILL COME DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES AWAY
AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND...CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO COLLAPSE.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CURRENTLY I THINK WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
THAT FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...CAUSING MARINE WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST...THEN
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AGAIN WINDS SHOULD
BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...FWA
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...WMS/FWA
MARINE...WMS/FWA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 292007
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
407 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH
FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WARMER ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY TRACK SOUTHEAST
OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT...MAINTAINING RATHER QUIET YET COLD
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. DETAILS REGARDING TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...LENDING SOME UNCERTAINTY
TO THE FORECAST.

CONSIDERING SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN PLACE...AS SEEN IN DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO FALL RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
INDICATING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH MINIMUMS RIGHT
AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WHEN TEMPERATURES
FALL TO AROUND 37 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND
BERKELEY...DORCHESTER...AND COLLETON COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA
THAT PATCHY FROST COULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST THINKING IS THAT
THE INTRODUCTION OF A LOW LEVEL JET TO THE WEST AND THE BRIEF
DURATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE IDEAL RANGE WILL PREVENT
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED DURING THE EVENING TIME FRAME...AS MORE RAPID COOLING OR
A MORE PERSISTENTLY WEAK GRADIENT COULD SUPPORT BETTER FROST
COVERAGE AND NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A FROST ADVISORY.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY REGION TO THE LOW 40S ELSEWHERE...WITH MINIMUMS
REACHED AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS AND WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...THINKING ON GENERAL SCENARIO FOR MONDAY REMAINS LITTLE
CHANGED. WEAK BAND OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER SUPPORT DURING THE MORNING WILL COME FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR MODEST UPWARD
MOTION...SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS. WITH DEW POINTS NO HIGHER
THAN THE 40S...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO SQUEEZE MUCH QPF OUT DURING THE
MORNING AS THE LINE MOVES QUICKLY FROM THE UPSTATE INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER SUPPORT DIMINISHES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL NOTICEABLY WARMER AS
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS MORE OF A CHANCE FOR SOME BROKEN SUNSHINE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THEREFORE...WHILE THE POPS ACTUALLY DECREASE A BIT
LATER IN THE DAY...SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...SO I
HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH...WITH
THE COOLEST TEMPS DUE TO EARLIER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MORE THAN
ANYTHING ELSE.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE LINGERING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING. AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE PACIFIC RATHER THAN POLAR
REGIONS...SO LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50
AT THE COAST.

TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER JET PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND
FLORIDA...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER
GEORGIA. THE NAM HITS THAT THERE COULD SOME SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...OR MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM AS TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE
70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT MY CURRENT BELIEF IS THAT THIS WILL
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND THE DAY WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PALTRY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...AND ANOTHER
UNINSPIRING JET MAX...SO I HAVE GONE A LITTLE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE AND
CAPPED THE POPS AT 20 PERCENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND...OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD BE MILDER...HOLDING IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CALLING THE
HIGH A WEAK WEDGE MIGHT BE GIVING IT TOO MUCH CREDIT...BUT IT WILL
ACT TO ALLOW THE WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S NEAR THE COAST. INLAND...THE LOW LEVELS WILL
BE WARMING WITH 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING 16 TO 18 C BY AFTERNOON IN THE
GEORGIA COUNTIES. NORMAL MIXING DOWN BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXACT
FINAL RESTING PLACE OF THE FRONT...I HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY VEER FROM NORTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY SLIPS DIRECTLY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND
PROGRESSES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL SUPPORT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KT ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE
A FEW HOURS JUST BELOW SCA WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON COUNTY
AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6
PM...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY FUTURE SHIFTS. ANY
INCREASES IN WINDS WOULD CAUSE THE NEED OF AN SCA.

WINDS WILL COME DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES AWAY
AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND...CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO COLLAPSE.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CURRENTLY I THINK WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
THAT FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...CAUSING MARINE WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST...THEN
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AGAIN WINDS SHOULD
BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...FWA
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...WMS/FWA
MARINE...WMS/FWA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 292007
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
407 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH
FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WARMER ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY TRACK SOUTHEAST
OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT...MAINTAINING RATHER QUIET YET COLD
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. DETAILS REGARDING TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...LENDING SOME UNCERTAINTY
TO THE FORECAST.

CONSIDERING SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN PLACE...AS SEEN IN DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO FALL RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
INDICATING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH MINIMUMS RIGHT
AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WHEN TEMPERATURES
FALL TO AROUND 37 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND
BERKELEY...DORCHESTER...AND COLLETON COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA
THAT PATCHY FROST COULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST THINKING IS THAT
THE INTRODUCTION OF A LOW LEVEL JET TO THE WEST AND THE BRIEF
DURATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE IDEAL RANGE WILL PREVENT
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED DURING THE EVENING TIME FRAME...AS MORE RAPID COOLING OR
A MORE PERSISTENTLY WEAK GRADIENT COULD SUPPORT BETTER FROST
COVERAGE AND NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A FROST ADVISORY.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY REGION TO THE LOW 40S ELSEWHERE...WITH MINIMUMS
REACHED AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS AND WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...THINKING ON GENERAL SCENARIO FOR MONDAY REMAINS LITTLE
CHANGED. WEAK BAND OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER SUPPORT DURING THE MORNING WILL COME FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR MODEST UPWARD
MOTION...SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS. WITH DEW POINTS NO HIGHER
THAN THE 40S...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO SQUEEZE MUCH QPF OUT DURING THE
MORNING AS THE LINE MOVES QUICKLY FROM THE UPSTATE INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER SUPPORT DIMINISHES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL NOTICEABLY WARMER AS
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS MORE OF A CHANCE FOR SOME BROKEN SUNSHINE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THEREFORE...WHILE THE POPS ACTUALLY DECREASE A BIT
LATER IN THE DAY...SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...SO I
HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH...WITH
THE COOLEST TEMPS DUE TO EARLIER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MORE THAN
ANYTHING ELSE.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE LINGERING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING. AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE PACIFIC RATHER THAN POLAR
REGIONS...SO LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50
AT THE COAST.

TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER JET PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND
FLORIDA...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER
GEORGIA. THE NAM HITS THAT THERE COULD SOME SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...OR MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM AS TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE
70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT MY CURRENT BELIEF IS THAT THIS WILL
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND THE DAY WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PALTRY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...AND ANOTHER
UNINSPIRING JET MAX...SO I HAVE GONE A LITTLE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE AND
CAPPED THE POPS AT 20 PERCENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND...OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD BE MILDER...HOLDING IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CALLING THE
HIGH A WEAK WEDGE MIGHT BE GIVING IT TOO MUCH CREDIT...BUT IT WILL
ACT TO ALLOW THE WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S NEAR THE COAST. INLAND...THE LOW LEVELS WILL
BE WARMING WITH 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING 16 TO 18 C BY AFTERNOON IN THE
GEORGIA COUNTIES. NORMAL MIXING DOWN BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXACT
FINAL RESTING PLACE OF THE FRONT...I HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY VEER FROM NORTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY SLIPS DIRECTLY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND
PROGRESSES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL SUPPORT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KT ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE
A FEW HOURS JUST BELOW SCA WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON COUNTY
AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6
PM...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY FUTURE SHIFTS. ANY
INCREASES IN WINDS WOULD CAUSE THE NEED OF AN SCA.

WINDS WILL COME DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES AWAY
AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND...CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO COLLAPSE.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CURRENTLY I THINK WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
THAT FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...CAUSING MARINE WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST...THEN
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AGAIN WINDS SHOULD
BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...FWA
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...WMS/FWA
MARINE...WMS/FWA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 292007
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
407 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH
FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WARMER ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY TRACK SOUTHEAST
OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT...MAINTAINING RATHER QUIET YET COLD
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. DETAILS REGARDING TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...LENDING SOME UNCERTAINTY
TO THE FORECAST.

CONSIDERING SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN PLACE...AS SEEN IN DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO FALL RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
INDICATING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH MINIMUMS RIGHT
AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WHEN TEMPERATURES
FALL TO AROUND 37 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND
BERKELEY...DORCHESTER...AND COLLETON COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA
THAT PATCHY FROST COULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST THINKING IS THAT
THE INTRODUCTION OF A LOW LEVEL JET TO THE WEST AND THE BRIEF
DURATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE IDEAL RANGE WILL PREVENT
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED DURING THE EVENING TIME FRAME...AS MORE RAPID COOLING OR
A MORE PERSISTENTLY WEAK GRADIENT COULD SUPPORT BETTER FROST
COVERAGE AND NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A FROST ADVISORY.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY REGION TO THE LOW 40S ELSEWHERE...WITH MINIMUMS
REACHED AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS AND WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...THINKING ON GENERAL SCENARIO FOR MONDAY REMAINS LITTLE
CHANGED. WEAK BAND OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER SUPPORT DURING THE MORNING WILL COME FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR MODEST UPWARD
MOTION...SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS. WITH DEW POINTS NO HIGHER
THAN THE 40S...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO SQUEEZE MUCH QPF OUT DURING THE
MORNING AS THE LINE MOVES QUICKLY FROM THE UPSTATE INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER SUPPORT DIMINISHES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL NOTICEABLY WARMER AS
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS MORE OF A CHANCE FOR SOME BROKEN SUNSHINE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THEREFORE...WHILE THE POPS ACTUALLY DECREASE A BIT
LATER IN THE DAY...SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...SO I
HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH...WITH
THE COOLEST TEMPS DUE TO EARLIER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MORE THAN
ANYTHING ELSE.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE LINGERING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING. AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE PACIFIC RATHER THAN POLAR
REGIONS...SO LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50
AT THE COAST.

TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER JET PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND
FLORIDA...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER
GEORGIA. THE NAM HITS THAT THERE COULD SOME SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...OR MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM AS TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE
70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT MY CURRENT BELIEF IS THAT THIS WILL
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND THE DAY WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PALTRY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...AND ANOTHER
UNINSPIRING JET MAX...SO I HAVE GONE A LITTLE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE AND
CAPPED THE POPS AT 20 PERCENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND...OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD BE MILDER...HOLDING IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CALLING THE
HIGH A WEAK WEDGE MIGHT BE GIVING IT TOO MUCH CREDIT...BUT IT WILL
ACT TO ALLOW THE WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S NEAR THE COAST. INLAND...THE LOW LEVELS WILL
BE WARMING WITH 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING 16 TO 18 C BY AFTERNOON IN THE
GEORGIA COUNTIES. NORMAL MIXING DOWN BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXACT
FINAL RESTING PLACE OF THE FRONT...I HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY VEER FROM NORTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY SLIPS DIRECTLY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND
PROGRESSES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL SUPPORT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KT ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE
A FEW HOURS JUST BELOW SCA WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON COUNTY
AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6
PM...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY FUTURE SHIFTS. ANY
INCREASES IN WINDS WOULD CAUSE THE NEED OF AN SCA.

WINDS WILL COME DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES AWAY
AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND...CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO COLLAPSE.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CURRENTLY I THINK WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
THAT FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...CAUSING MARINE WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST...THEN
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AGAIN WINDS SHOULD
BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...FWA
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...WMS/FWA
MARINE...WMS/FWA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 292007
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
407 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH
FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WARMER ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY TRACK SOUTHEAST
OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT...MAINTAINING RATHER QUIET YET COLD
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. DETAILS REGARDING TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...LENDING SOME UNCERTAINTY
TO THE FORECAST.

CONSIDERING SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN PLACE...AS SEEN IN DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO FALL RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
INDICATING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH MINIMUMS RIGHT
AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WHEN TEMPERATURES
FALL TO AROUND 37 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND
BERKELEY...DORCHESTER...AND COLLETON COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA
THAT PATCHY FROST COULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST THINKING IS THAT
THE INTRODUCTION OF A LOW LEVEL JET TO THE WEST AND THE BRIEF
DURATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE IDEAL RANGE WILL PREVENT
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED DURING THE EVENING TIME FRAME...AS MORE RAPID COOLING OR
A MORE PERSISTENTLY WEAK GRADIENT COULD SUPPORT BETTER FROST
COVERAGE AND NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A FROST ADVISORY.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY REGION TO THE LOW 40S ELSEWHERE...WITH MINIMUMS
REACHED AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS AND WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...THINKING ON GENERAL SCENARIO FOR MONDAY REMAINS LITTLE
CHANGED. WEAK BAND OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER SUPPORT DURING THE MORNING WILL COME FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR MODEST UPWARD
MOTION...SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS. WITH DEW POINTS NO HIGHER
THAN THE 40S...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO SQUEEZE MUCH QPF OUT DURING THE
MORNING AS THE LINE MOVES QUICKLY FROM THE UPSTATE INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER SUPPORT DIMINISHES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH WILL NOTICEABLY WARMER AS
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS MORE OF A CHANCE FOR SOME BROKEN SUNSHINE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THEREFORE...WHILE THE POPS ACTUALLY DECREASE A BIT
LATER IN THE DAY...SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...SO I
HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH...WITH
THE COOLEST TEMPS DUE TO EARLIER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MORE THAN
ANYTHING ELSE.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE LINGERING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING. AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE PACIFIC RATHER THAN POLAR
REGIONS...SO LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50
AT THE COAST.

TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER JET PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND
FLORIDA...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER
GEORGIA. THE NAM HITS THAT THERE COULD SOME SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS...OR MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM AS TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE
70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16...BUT MY CURRENT BELIEF IS THAT THIS WILL
HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND THE DAY WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PALTRY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...AND ANOTHER
UNINSPIRING JET MAX...SO I HAVE GONE A LITTLE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE AND
CAPPED THE POPS AT 20 PERCENT. WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND...OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD BE MILDER...HOLDING IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CALLING THE
HIGH A WEAK WEDGE MIGHT BE GIVING IT TOO MUCH CREDIT...BUT IT WILL
ACT TO ALLOW THE WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY...KEEPING HIGH
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S NEAR THE COAST. INLAND...THE LOW LEVELS WILL
BE WARMING WITH 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING 16 TO 18 C BY AFTERNOON IN THE
GEORGIA COUNTIES. NORMAL MIXING DOWN BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXACT
FINAL RESTING PLACE OF THE FRONT...I HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY VEER FROM NORTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY SLIPS DIRECTLY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND
PROGRESSES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL SUPPORT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KT ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE
A FEW HOURS JUST BELOW SCA WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON COUNTY
AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6
PM...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY FUTURE SHIFTS. ANY
INCREASES IN WINDS WOULD CAUSE THE NEED OF AN SCA.

WINDS WILL COME DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES AWAY
AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND...CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO COLLAPSE.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CURRENTLY I THINK WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
THAT FRONT.

ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...CAUSING MARINE WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST...THEN
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AGAIN WINDS SHOULD
BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...FWA
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...WMS/FWA
MARINE...WMS/FWA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KFFC 291926
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
EXPECT VFR INTO THE EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CEILINGS AROUND 050 BY EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS
LOWERING TO IFR TOWARD MORNING WITH SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE TAF
SITES. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO CENTRAL GA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY
SUNRISE MONDAY AND INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MID
MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS BUT MEDIUM ON MORNING CEILINGS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  68  43  77 /  40  60   0   5
ATLANTA         46  67  46  74 /  40  60   0  30
BLAIRSVILLE     41  61  37  70 /  60  70   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    46  68  42  73 /  60  70   0  30
COLUMBUS        48  72  50  76 /  30  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     45  65  43  72 /  60  60   0  10
MACON           45  70  46  75 /  20  40  10  20
ROME            47  68  41  74 /  60  70   0  30
PEACHTREE CITY  46  68  43  75 /  40  60   5  30
VIDALIA         41  72  50  78 /  10  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41



000
FXUS62 KFFC 291926
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
EXPECT VFR INTO THE EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CEILINGS AROUND 050 BY EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS
LOWERING TO IFR TOWARD MORNING WITH SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE TAF
SITES. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO CENTRAL GA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY
SUNRISE MONDAY AND INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MID
MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS BUT MEDIUM ON MORNING CEILINGS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  68  43  77 /  40  60   0   5
ATLANTA         46  67  46  74 /  40  60   0  30
BLAIRSVILLE     41  61  37  70 /  60  70   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    46  68  42  73 /  60  70   0  30
COLUMBUS        48  72  50  76 /  30  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     45  65  43  72 /  60  60   0  10
MACON           45  70  46  75 /  20  40  10  20
ROME            47  68  41  74 /  60  70   0  30
PEACHTREE CITY  46  68  43  75 /  40  60   5  30
VIDALIA         41  72  50  78 /  10  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41



000
FXUS62 KFFC 291926
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
EXPECT VFR INTO THE EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CEILINGS AROUND 050 BY EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS
LOWERING TO IFR TOWARD MORNING WITH SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE TAF
SITES. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO CENTRAL GA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY
SUNRISE MONDAY AND INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MID
MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS BUT MEDIUM ON MORNING CEILINGS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  68  43  77 /  40  60   0   5
ATLANTA         46  67  46  74 /  40  60   0  30
BLAIRSVILLE     41  61  37  70 /  60  70   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    46  68  42  73 /  60  70   0  30
COLUMBUS        48  72  50  76 /  30  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     45  65  43  72 /  60  60   0  10
MACON           45  70  46  75 /  20  40  10  20
ROME            47  68  41  74 /  60  70   0  30
PEACHTREE CITY  46  68  43  75 /  40  60   5  30
VIDALIA         41  72  50  78 /  10  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41



000
FXUS62 KFFC 291926
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
EXPECT VFR INTO THE EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CEILINGS AROUND 050 BY EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS
LOWERING TO IFR TOWARD MORNING WITH SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE TAF
SITES. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO CENTRAL GA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY
SUNRISE MONDAY AND INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MID
MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS BUT MEDIUM ON MORNING CEILINGS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  68  43  77 /  40  60   0   5
ATLANTA         46  67  46  74 /  40  60   0  30
BLAIRSVILLE     41  61  37  70 /  60  70   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    46  68  42  73 /  60  70   0  30
COLUMBUS        48  72  50  76 /  30  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     45  65  43  72 /  60  60   0  10
MACON           45  70  46  75 /  20  40  10  20
ROME            47  68  41  74 /  60  70   0  30
PEACHTREE CITY  46  68  43  75 /  40  60   5  30
VIDALIA         41  72  50  78 /  10  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41



000
FXUS62 KFFC 291926
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
EXPECT VFR INTO THE EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CEILINGS AROUND 050 BY EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS
LOWERING TO IFR TOWARD MORNING WITH SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE TAF
SITES. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO CENTRAL GA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY
SUNRISE MONDAY AND INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MID
MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS BUT MEDIUM ON MORNING CEILINGS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  68  43  77 /  40  60   0   5
ATLANTA         46  67  46  74 /  40  60   0  30
BLAIRSVILLE     41  61  37  70 /  60  70   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    46  68  42  73 /  60  70   0  30
COLUMBUS        48  72  50  76 /  30  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     45  65  43  72 /  60  60   0  10
MACON           45  70  46  75 /  20  40  10  20
ROME            47  68  41  74 /  60  70   0  30
PEACHTREE CITY  46  68  43  75 /  40  60   5  30
VIDALIA         41  72  50  78 /  10  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41



000
FXUS62 KFFC 291926
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
EXPECT VFR INTO THE EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CEILINGS AROUND 050 BY EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS
LOWERING TO IFR TOWARD MORNING WITH SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE TAF
SITES. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO CENTRAL GA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY
SUNRISE MONDAY AND INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MID
MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS BUT MEDIUM ON MORNING CEILINGS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  68  43  77 /  40  60   0   5
ATLANTA         46  67  46  74 /  40  60   0  30
BLAIRSVILLE     41  61  37  70 /  60  70   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    46  68  42  73 /  60  70   0  30
COLUMBUS        48  72  50  76 /  30  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     45  65  43  72 /  60  60   0  10
MACON           45  70  46  75 /  20  40  10  20
ROME            47  68  41  74 /  60  70   0  30
PEACHTREE CITY  46  68  43  75 /  40  60   5  30
VIDALIA         41  72  50  78 /  10  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291826
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
ALSO. AIR MASS WILL START OFF DRY TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT
APPROACHING...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE...LOCAL NUMBERS AND TRENDS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS STILL MAINLY NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SE AND S TONIGHT. SOME LOW TO MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. WILL LIKELY ONLY PLACE
A VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA AND ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT
OF THE TAF REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291826
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
ALSO. AIR MASS WILL START OFF DRY TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT
APPROACHING...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE...LOCAL NUMBERS AND TRENDS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS STILL MAINLY NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SE AND S TONIGHT. SOME LOW TO MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. WILL LIKELY ONLY PLACE
A VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA AND ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT
OF THE TAF REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 291826
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
ALSO. AIR MASS WILL START OFF DRY TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT
APPROACHING...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE...LOCAL NUMBERS AND TRENDS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS STILL MAINLY NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SE AND S TONIGHT. SOME LOW TO MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. WILL LIKELY ONLY PLACE
A VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA AND ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT
OF THE TAF REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 291826
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
ALSO. AIR MASS WILL START OFF DRY TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT
APPROACHING...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE...LOCAL NUMBERS AND TRENDS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS STILL MAINLY NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SE AND S TONIGHT. SOME LOW TO MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. WILL LIKELY ONLY PLACE
A VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA AND ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT
OF THE TAF REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291811
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
211 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
ALSO. AIR MASS WILL START OFF DRY TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT
APPROACHING...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE...LOCAL NUMBERS AND TRENDS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT COLD ADVECTION LAGS
BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH
SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION.MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
DRY FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WARMING TREND THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS STILL MAINLY NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SE AND S TONIGHT. SOME LOW TO MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. WILL LIKELY ONLY PLACE
A VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA AND ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT
OF THE TAF REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCAE 291811
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
211 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
ALSO. AIR MASS WILL START OFF DRY TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT
APPROACHING...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE...LOCAL NUMBERS AND TRENDS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT COLD ADVECTION LAGS
BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH
SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION.MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
DRY FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WARMING TREND THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS STILL MAINLY NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SE AND S TONIGHT. SOME LOW TO MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. WILL LIKELY ONLY PLACE
A VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA AND ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT
OF THE TAF REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCAE 291811
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
211 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
ALSO. AIR MASS WILL START OFF DRY TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT
APPROACHING...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE...LOCAL NUMBERS AND TRENDS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT COLD ADVECTION LAGS
BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH
SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION.MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
DRY FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WARMING TREND THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS STILL MAINLY NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SE AND S TONIGHT. SOME LOW TO MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. WILL LIKELY ONLY PLACE
A VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA AND ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT
OF THE TAF REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCHS 291801
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
201 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY...THEN SHIFT INTO THE
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING THE
REINFORCEMENT OF A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS. COLD ADVECTION WILL
WANE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND UNDER FULL INSOLATION...EXPECT A
RATHER LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH...STILL CONSIDERABLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE MARCH. COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE
EVEN COOLER DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MARINE AIR WITHIN THE
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEING TO MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
THIS EVENING...MAINTAINING A RATHER NEBULOUS GRADIENT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RAPID DECOUPLING AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
TRANSPIRE...CAUSING TEMPS TO PLUMMET QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S INLAND WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
A GOOD 5-8 HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING NORTH AND UP TO 8-10 HOURS
SOUTH. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING...MANY
INLAND AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THESE COLD
TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...WILL
LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED FROST ACROSS MUCH THE REGION INLAND
FROM US-17. AS SUCH...WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST
ADVISORY AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL STALL
OR EVEN RISE WHEN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SW
AND WARM ADVECTION TAKES HOLD LATE TONIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST/NW LATE IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE NEARING THE APPALACHIANS BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A PREFRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE...MAINLY SUPPORTED BY AN 850
MB WESTERLY JET AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WILL
TRANSLATE QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTH/ SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FORCING SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...AND THE AXIS
OF ENHANCED 850-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BECOME LESS WELL-
DEFINED WITH TIME. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING TRENDS EVIDENT IN
FORCING/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELDS...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 30-40
PERCENT LATE MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ADJUSTED
TIMING OF TO FAVOR A FASTER TREND FAVORED BY ALL OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE 29/00 UTC NAM. ALSO OF NOTE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD EAST ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THUS A MENTION OF THUNDER REMAINS JUSTIFIED
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
FAR NORTH TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION REMAIN LESS PROMINENT THAN EXPECTED...INCREASING W/SW
WINDS COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS A WIDER SWATH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED/WEAKENING BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE THE 29/00 UTC NAM IS
LIKELY OVERDONE DEPICTING A RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL JUSTIFIED IN THIS AREA MONDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH TAPER TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S WILL BE COMMON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND
FRONT WILL ALSO STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR PERHAPS JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO RIDE THE WEST/NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO MAINTAIN
RAIN-FREE FORECASTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INCLUDING A MENTION OF THUNDER ARE WARRANTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE NOT HIGH...AS PRECIPITATION COULD EITHER
STREAM MORE QUICKLY INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT OR
COULD BE HELD MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON BOTH DAYS...AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS AND SEAS ARE OCCURRING AS
THE COLD ADVECTION DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON...PRESSURE RISES
SLOW...AND THE CORE OF THE CONTINENTAL HIGH SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. MEANWHILE...THE GRADIENT HAS
TIGHTENED SUFFICIENTLY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
HIGH TO SUPPORT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THUS...ONLY THE
OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES ARE UNDER AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...THE NIGHT WILL BEGIN WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH
THE OFFSHORE TRANSITIONING HIGH...RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE WIND
AND LIMITED SEAS. THE HIGH EVENTUALLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS TRANSITION...ALONG WITH A DECENT
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AFTER 06Z...WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH/SW WINDS
TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS 10 OR 15 KT AS SEAS RISE MAYBE A FOOT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SURGE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STABLE
MARINE ENVIRONMENT...HELD WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A MODEST SURGE OF NORTHEAST
WINDS...BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY SCA CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY
LOW. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO STALL
AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK...BUT ONCE AGAIN
MARINE LAYER STABILITY COULD PREVENT SCA WINDS/SEAS.

ALSO OF NOTE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG OVER
NEAR SHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY UNTIL A COLD FROPA OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...WMS
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291801
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
201 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY...THEN SHIFT INTO THE
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING THE
REINFORCEMENT OF A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS. COLD ADVECTION WILL
WANE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND UNDER FULL INSOLATION...EXPECT A
RATHER LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH...STILL CONSIDERABLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE MARCH. COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE
EVEN COOLER DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MARINE AIR WITHIN THE
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEING TO MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
THIS EVENING...MAINTAINING A RATHER NEBULOUS GRADIENT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RAPID DECOUPLING AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
TRANSPIRE...CAUSING TEMPS TO PLUMMET QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S INLAND WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
A GOOD 5-8 HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING NORTH AND UP TO 8-10 HOURS
SOUTH. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING...MANY
INLAND AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THESE COLD
TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...WILL
LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED FROST ACROSS MUCH THE REGION INLAND
FROM US-17. AS SUCH...WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST
ADVISORY AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL STALL
OR EVEN RISE WHEN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SW
AND WARM ADVECTION TAKES HOLD LATE TONIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST/NW LATE IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE NEARING THE APPALACHIANS BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A PREFRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE...MAINLY SUPPORTED BY AN 850
MB WESTERLY JET AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WILL
TRANSLATE QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTH/ SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FORCING SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...AND THE AXIS
OF ENHANCED 850-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BECOME LESS WELL-
DEFINED WITH TIME. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING TRENDS EVIDENT IN
FORCING/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELDS...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 30-40
PERCENT LATE MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ADJUSTED
TIMING OF TO FAVOR A FASTER TREND FAVORED BY ALL OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE 29/00 UTC NAM. ALSO OF NOTE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD EAST ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THUS A MENTION OF THUNDER REMAINS JUSTIFIED
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
FAR NORTH TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION REMAIN LESS PROMINENT THAN EXPECTED...INCREASING W/SW
WINDS COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS A WIDER SWATH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED/WEAKENING BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE THE 29/00 UTC NAM IS
LIKELY OVERDONE DEPICTING A RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL JUSTIFIED IN THIS AREA MONDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH TAPER TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S WILL BE COMMON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND
FRONT WILL ALSO STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR PERHAPS JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO RIDE THE WEST/NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO MAINTAIN
RAIN-FREE FORECASTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INCLUDING A MENTION OF THUNDER ARE WARRANTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE NOT HIGH...AS PRECIPITATION COULD EITHER
STREAM MORE QUICKLY INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT OR
COULD BE HELD MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON BOTH DAYS...AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS AND SEAS ARE OCCURRING AS
THE COLD ADVECTION DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON...PRESSURE RISES
SLOW...AND THE CORE OF THE CONTINENTAL HIGH SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. MEANWHILE...THE GRADIENT HAS
TIGHTENED SUFFICIENTLY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
HIGH TO SUPPORT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THUS...ONLY THE
OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES ARE UNDER AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...THE NIGHT WILL BEGIN WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH
THE OFFSHORE TRANSITIONING HIGH...RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE WIND
AND LIMITED SEAS. THE HIGH EVENTUALLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS TRANSITION...ALONG WITH A DECENT
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AFTER 06Z...WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH/SW WINDS
TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS 10 OR 15 KT AS SEAS RISE MAYBE A FOOT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SURGE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STABLE
MARINE ENVIRONMENT...HELD WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A MODEST SURGE OF NORTHEAST
WINDS...BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY SCA CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY
LOW. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO STALL
AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK...BUT ONCE AGAIN
MARINE LAYER STABILITY COULD PREVENT SCA WINDS/SEAS.

ALSO OF NOTE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG OVER
NEAR SHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY UNTIL A COLD FROPA OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...WMS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291801
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
201 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY...THEN SHIFT INTO THE
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING THE
REINFORCEMENT OF A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS. COLD ADVECTION WILL
WANE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND UNDER FULL INSOLATION...EXPECT A
RATHER LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH...STILL CONSIDERABLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE MARCH. COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE
EVEN COOLER DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MARINE AIR WITHIN THE
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEING TO MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
THIS EVENING...MAINTAINING A RATHER NEBULOUS GRADIENT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RAPID DECOUPLING AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
TRANSPIRE...CAUSING TEMPS TO PLUMMET QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S INLAND WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
A GOOD 5-8 HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING NORTH AND UP TO 8-10 HOURS
SOUTH. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING...MANY
INLAND AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THESE COLD
TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...WILL
LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED FROST ACROSS MUCH THE REGION INLAND
FROM US-17. AS SUCH...WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST
ADVISORY AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL STALL
OR EVEN RISE WHEN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SW
AND WARM ADVECTION TAKES HOLD LATE TONIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST/NW LATE IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE NEARING THE APPALACHIANS BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A PREFRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE...MAINLY SUPPORTED BY AN 850
MB WESTERLY JET AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WILL
TRANSLATE QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTH/ SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FORCING SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...AND THE AXIS
OF ENHANCED 850-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BECOME LESS WELL-
DEFINED WITH TIME. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING TRENDS EVIDENT IN
FORCING/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELDS...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 30-40
PERCENT LATE MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ADJUSTED
TIMING OF TO FAVOR A FASTER TREND FAVORED BY ALL OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE 29/00 UTC NAM. ALSO OF NOTE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD EAST ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THUS A MENTION OF THUNDER REMAINS JUSTIFIED
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
FAR NORTH TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION REMAIN LESS PROMINENT THAN EXPECTED...INCREASING W/SW
WINDS COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS A WIDER SWATH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED/WEAKENING BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE THE 29/00 UTC NAM IS
LIKELY OVERDONE DEPICTING A RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL JUSTIFIED IN THIS AREA MONDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH TAPER TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S WILL BE COMMON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND
FRONT WILL ALSO STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR PERHAPS JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO RIDE THE WEST/NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO MAINTAIN
RAIN-FREE FORECASTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INCLUDING A MENTION OF THUNDER ARE WARRANTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE NOT HIGH...AS PRECIPITATION COULD EITHER
STREAM MORE QUICKLY INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT OR
COULD BE HELD MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON BOTH DAYS...AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS AND SEAS ARE OCCURRING AS
THE COLD ADVECTION DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON...PRESSURE RISES
SLOW...AND THE CORE OF THE CONTINENTAL HIGH SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. MEANWHILE...THE GRADIENT HAS
TIGHTENED SUFFICIENTLY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
HIGH TO SUPPORT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THUS...ONLY THE
OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES ARE UNDER AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...THE NIGHT WILL BEGIN WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH
THE OFFSHORE TRANSITIONING HIGH...RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE WIND
AND LIMITED SEAS. THE HIGH EVENTUALLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS TRANSITION...ALONG WITH A DECENT
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AFTER 06Z...WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH/SW WINDS
TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS 10 OR 15 KT AS SEAS RISE MAYBE A FOOT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SURGE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STABLE
MARINE ENVIRONMENT...HELD WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A MODEST SURGE OF NORTHEAST
WINDS...BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY SCA CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY
LOW. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO STALL
AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK...BUT ONCE AGAIN
MARINE LAYER STABILITY COULD PREVENT SCA WINDS/SEAS.

ALSO OF NOTE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG OVER
NEAR SHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY UNTIL A COLD FROPA OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...WMS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291801
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
201 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY...THEN SHIFT INTO THE
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING THE
REINFORCEMENT OF A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS. COLD ADVECTION WILL
WANE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND UNDER FULL INSOLATION...EXPECT A
RATHER LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH...STILL CONSIDERABLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE MARCH. COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE
EVEN COOLER DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MARINE AIR WITHIN THE
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEING TO MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
THIS EVENING...MAINTAINING A RATHER NEBULOUS GRADIENT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RAPID DECOUPLING AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
TRANSPIRE...CAUSING TEMPS TO PLUMMET QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S INLAND WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
A GOOD 5-8 HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING NORTH AND UP TO 8-10 HOURS
SOUTH. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING...MANY
INLAND AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THESE COLD
TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...WILL
LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED FROST ACROSS MUCH THE REGION INLAND
FROM US-17. AS SUCH...WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST
ADVISORY AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL STALL
OR EVEN RISE WHEN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SW
AND WARM ADVECTION TAKES HOLD LATE TONIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST/NW LATE IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE NEARING THE APPALACHIANS BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A PREFRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE...MAINLY SUPPORTED BY AN 850
MB WESTERLY JET AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WILL
TRANSLATE QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTH/ SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FORCING SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...AND THE AXIS
OF ENHANCED 850-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BECOME LESS WELL-
DEFINED WITH TIME. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING TRENDS EVIDENT IN
FORCING/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELDS...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 30-40
PERCENT LATE MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ADJUSTED
TIMING OF TO FAVOR A FASTER TREND FAVORED BY ALL OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE 29/00 UTC NAM. ALSO OF NOTE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD EAST ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THUS A MENTION OF THUNDER REMAINS JUSTIFIED
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
FAR NORTH TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION REMAIN LESS PROMINENT THAN EXPECTED...INCREASING W/SW
WINDS COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS A WIDER SWATH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED/WEAKENING BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE THE 29/00 UTC NAM IS
LIKELY OVERDONE DEPICTING A RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL JUSTIFIED IN THIS AREA MONDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH TAPER TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S WILL BE COMMON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND
FRONT WILL ALSO STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR PERHAPS JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO RIDE THE WEST/NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO MAINTAIN
RAIN-FREE FORECASTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INCLUDING A MENTION OF THUNDER ARE WARRANTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE NOT HIGH...AS PRECIPITATION COULD EITHER
STREAM MORE QUICKLY INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT OR
COULD BE HELD MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON BOTH DAYS...AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS AND SEAS ARE OCCURRING AS
THE COLD ADVECTION DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON...PRESSURE RISES
SLOW...AND THE CORE OF THE CONTINENTAL HIGH SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. MEANWHILE...THE GRADIENT HAS
TIGHTENED SUFFICIENTLY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
HIGH TO SUPPORT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THUS...ONLY THE
OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES ARE UNDER AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...THE NIGHT WILL BEGIN WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH
THE OFFSHORE TRANSITIONING HIGH...RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE WIND
AND LIMITED SEAS. THE HIGH EVENTUALLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS TRANSITION...ALONG WITH A DECENT
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AFTER 06Z...WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH/SW WINDS
TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS 10 OR 15 KT AS SEAS RISE MAYBE A FOOT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SURGE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STABLE
MARINE ENVIRONMENT...HELD WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A MODEST SURGE OF NORTHEAST
WINDS...BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY SCA CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY
LOW. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO STALL
AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK...BUT ONCE AGAIN
MARINE LAYER STABILITY COULD PREVENT SCA WINDS/SEAS.

ALSO OF NOTE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG OVER
NEAR SHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY UNTIL A COLD FROPA OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...WMS
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KFFC 291739
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
135 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015


.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO REMOVE FREEZE HEADLINE.

41



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES AREA
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWFA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF GA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP THAN THE NAM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DIMINISHING THE PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS THE BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES SHUNT TO THE NORTH.

MODELS ARE ALSO TRYING TO BRING A LITTLE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT STILL THINK THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE. SO...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966

.AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... EXPECT VFR INTO THE EVENING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CEILINGS AROUND
050 BY EARLY EVENING.  CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR TOWARD MORNING WITH
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE TAF SITES.  SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO CENTRAL GA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE MONDAY AND INCREASING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AFTER MID MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS BUT
MEDIUM ON MORNING CEILINGS.


41

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  44  68  43 /   0  40  50   0
ATLANTA         59  47  67  46 /   0  40  50   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  42  61  37 /   0  60  70   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  46  68  42 /   0  50  70   0
COLUMBUS        63  48  72  50 /   0  30  50  20
GAINESVILLE     57  45  65  43 /   0  40  50   0
MACON           61  45  70  46 /   0  20  50  20
ROME            60  47  68  41 /   0  60  70   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  46  68  43 /   0  40  50  10
VIDALIA         62  45  72  50 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 291739
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
135 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015


.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO REMOVE FREEZE HEADLINE.

41



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES AREA
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWFA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF GA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP THAN THE NAM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DIMINISHING THE PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS THE BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES SHUNT TO THE NORTH.

MODELS ARE ALSO TRYING TO BRING A LITTLE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT STILL THINK THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE. SO...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966

.AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... EXPECT VFR INTO THE EVENING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CEILINGS AROUND
050 BY EARLY EVENING.  CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR TOWARD MORNING WITH
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE TAF SITES.  SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO CENTRAL GA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE MONDAY AND INCREASING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AFTER MID MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS BUT
MEDIUM ON MORNING CEILINGS.


41

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  44  68  43 /   0  40  50   0
ATLANTA         59  47  67  46 /   0  40  50   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  42  61  37 /   0  60  70   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  46  68  42 /   0  50  70   0
COLUMBUS        63  48  72  50 /   0  30  50  20
GAINESVILLE     57  45  65  43 /   0  40  50   0
MACON           61  45  70  46 /   0  20  50  20
ROME            60  47  68  41 /   0  60  70   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  46  68  43 /   0  40  50  10
VIDALIA         62  45  72  50 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291739
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
135 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015


.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO REMOVE FREEZE HEADLINE.

41



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES AREA
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWFA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF GA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP THAN THE NAM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DIMINISHING THE PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS THE BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES SHUNT TO THE NORTH.

MODELS ARE ALSO TRYING TO BRING A LITTLE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT STILL THINK THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE. SO...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966

.AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... EXPECT VFR INTO THE EVENING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CEILINGS AROUND
050 BY EARLY EVENING.  CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR TOWARD MORNING WITH
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE TAF SITES.  SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO CENTRAL GA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE MONDAY AND INCREASING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AFTER MID MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS BUT
MEDIUM ON MORNING CEILINGS.


41

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  44  68  43 /   0  40  50   0
ATLANTA         59  47  67  46 /   0  40  50   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  42  61  37 /   0  60  70   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  46  68  42 /   0  50  70   0
COLUMBUS        63  48  72  50 /   0  30  50  20
GAINESVILLE     57  45  65  43 /   0  40  50   0
MACON           61  45  70  46 /   0  20  50  20
ROME            60  47  68  41 /   0  60  70   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  46  68  43 /   0  40  50  10
VIDALIA         62  45  72  50 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 291739
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
135 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015


.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO REMOVE FREEZE HEADLINE.

41



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES AREA
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWFA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF GA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP THAN THE NAM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DIMINISHING THE PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS THE BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES SHUNT TO THE NORTH.

MODELS ARE ALSO TRYING TO BRING A LITTLE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT STILL THINK THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE. SO...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966

.AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... EXPECT VFR INTO THE EVENING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CEILINGS AROUND
050 BY EARLY EVENING.  CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR TOWARD MORNING WITH
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE TAF SITES.  SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO CENTRAL GA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE MONDAY AND INCREASING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AFTER MID MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS BUT
MEDIUM ON MORNING CEILINGS.


41

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  44  68  43 /   0  40  50   0
ATLANTA         59  47  67  46 /   0  40  50   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  42  61  37 /   0  60  70   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  46  68  42 /   0  50  70   0
COLUMBUS        63  48  72  50 /   0  30  50  20
GAINESVILLE     57  45  65  43 /   0  40  50   0
MACON           61  45  70  46 /   0  20  50  20
ROME            60  47  68  41 /   0  60  70   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  46  68  43 /   0  40  50  10
VIDALIA         62  45  72  50 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291514
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1114 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT
EXPECT READINGS TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ALTHOUGH A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NC/VA. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 291514
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1114 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT
EXPECT READINGS TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ALTHOUGH A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NC/VA. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 291514
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1114 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT
EXPECT READINGS TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ALTHOUGH A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NC/VA. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 291514
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1114 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT
EXPECT READINGS TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ALTHOUGH A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NC/VA. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 291514
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1114 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT
EXPECT READINGS TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ALTHOUGH A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NC/VA. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 291514
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1114 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT
EXPECT READINGS TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ALTHOUGH A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NC/VA. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 291514
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1114 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT
EXPECT READINGS TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ALTHOUGH A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NC/VA. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 291514
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1114 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT
EXPECT READINGS TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ALTHOUGH A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NC/VA. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KFFC 291458
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1100 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015


.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO REMOVE FREEZE HEADLINE.

41



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES AREA
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWFA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF GA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP THAN THE NAM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DIMINISHING THE PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS THE BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES SHUNT TO THE NORTH.

MODELS ARE ALSO TRYING TO BRING A LITTLE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT STILL THINK THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE. SO...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TODAY WITH CIGS AROUND 050 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS
MAY DIP TO MVFR VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL BRING PRECIP...BUT IT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MID MORNING. MODELS WANT TO DECREASE THE PRECIP AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED A VCSH FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NE/E BY LATE MORNING TODAY
AND THEN SOUTH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  44  68  43 /   0  40  50   0
ATLANTA         59  47  67  46 /   0  40  50   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  42  61  37 /   0  60  70   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  46  68  42 /   0  50  70   0
COLUMBUS        63  48  72  50 /   0  30  50  20
GAINESVILLE     57  45  65  43 /   0  40  50   0
MACON           61  45  70  46 /   0  20  50  20
ROME            60  47  68  41 /   0  60  70   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  46  68  43 /   0  40  50  10
VIDALIA         62  45  72  50 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291458
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1100 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015


.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO REMOVE FREEZE HEADLINE.

41



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES AREA
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWFA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF GA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP THAN THE NAM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DIMINISHING THE PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS THE BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES SHUNT TO THE NORTH.

MODELS ARE ALSO TRYING TO BRING A LITTLE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT STILL THINK THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE. SO...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TODAY WITH CIGS AROUND 050 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS
MAY DIP TO MVFR VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL BRING PRECIP...BUT IT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MID MORNING. MODELS WANT TO DECREASE THE PRECIP AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED A VCSH FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NE/E BY LATE MORNING TODAY
AND THEN SOUTH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  44  68  43 /   0  40  50   0
ATLANTA         59  47  67  46 /   0  40  50   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  42  61  37 /   0  60  70   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  46  68  42 /   0  50  70   0
COLUMBUS        63  48  72  50 /   0  30  50  20
GAINESVILLE     57  45  65  43 /   0  40  50   0
MACON           61  45  70  46 /   0  20  50  20
ROME            60  47  68  41 /   0  60  70   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  46  68  43 /   0  40  50  10
VIDALIA         62  45  72  50 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 291458
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1100 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015


.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO REMOVE FREEZE HEADLINE.

41



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES AREA
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWFA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF GA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP THAN THE NAM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DIMINISHING THE PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS THE BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES SHUNT TO THE NORTH.

MODELS ARE ALSO TRYING TO BRING A LITTLE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT STILL THINK THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE. SO...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TODAY WITH CIGS AROUND 050 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS
MAY DIP TO MVFR VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL BRING PRECIP...BUT IT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MID MORNING. MODELS WANT TO DECREASE THE PRECIP AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED A VCSH FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NE/E BY LATE MORNING TODAY
AND THEN SOUTH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  44  68  43 /   0  40  50   0
ATLANTA         59  47  67  46 /   0  40  50   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  42  61  37 /   0  60  70   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  46  68  42 /   0  50  70   0
COLUMBUS        63  48  72  50 /   0  30  50  20
GAINESVILLE     57  45  65  43 /   0  40  50   0
MACON           61  45  70  46 /   0  20  50  20
ROME            60  47  68  41 /   0  60  70   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  46  68  43 /   0  40  50  10
VIDALIA         62  45  72  50 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 291458
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1100 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015


.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO REMOVE FREEZE HEADLINE.

41



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES AREA
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWFA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF GA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP THAN THE NAM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DIMINISHING THE PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS THE BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES SHUNT TO THE NORTH.

MODELS ARE ALSO TRYING TO BRING A LITTLE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT STILL THINK THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE. SO...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TODAY WITH CIGS AROUND 050 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS
MAY DIP TO MVFR VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL BRING PRECIP...BUT IT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MID MORNING. MODELS WANT TO DECREASE THE PRECIP AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED A VCSH FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NE/E BY LATE MORNING TODAY
AND THEN SOUTH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  44  68  43 /   0  40  50   0
ATLANTA         59  47  67  46 /   0  40  50   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  42  61  37 /   0  60  70   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  46  68  42 /   0  50  70   0
COLUMBUS        63  48  72  50 /   0  30  50  20
GAINESVILLE     57  45  65  43 /   0  40  50   0
MACON           61  45  70  46 /   0  20  50  20
ROME            60  47  68  41 /   0  60  70   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  46  68  43 /   0  40  50  10
VIDALIA         62  45  72  50 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291342
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
942 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY...THEN SHIFT INTO THE
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES ARE STEADILY RISING ABOVE FREEZING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HAVE ALLOWED THE FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE
AT 9 AM AS SCHEDULED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUING THE REINFORCEMENT OF A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS. COLD
ADVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY WANE THIS AFTERNOON...AND UNDER FULL
INSOLATION...EXPECT A RATHER LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S
SOUTH...STILL CONSIDERABLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE MARCH.
COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE EVEN COOLER DUE TO THE INFLUX OF
MARINE AIR WITHIN THE EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEING TO MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
THIS EVENING...MAINTAINING A RATHER NEBULOUS GRADIENT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RAPID DECOUPLING AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
TRANSPIRE...CAUSING TEMPS TO PLUMMET QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S INLAND WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
A GOOD 5-8 HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING NORTH AND UP TO 8-10 HOURS
SOUTH. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING...MANY
INLAND AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THESE COLD
TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...WILL
LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED FROST ACROSS MUCH THE REGION INLAND
FROM US-17. AS SUCH...WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST
ADVISORY AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL STALL
OR EVEN RISE WHEN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SW
AND WARM ADVECTION TAKES HOLD LATE TONIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST/NW LATE IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE NEARING THE APPALACHIANS BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A PREFRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE...MAINLY SUPPORTED BY AN 850
MB WESTERLY JET AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WILL
TRANSLATE QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTH/ SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FORCING SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...AND THE AXIS
OF ENHANCED 850-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BECOME LESS WELL-
DEFINED WITH TIME. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING TRENDS EVIDENT IN
FORCING/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELDS...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 30-40
PERCENT LATE MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ADJUSTED
TIMING OF TO FAVOR A FASTER TREND FAVORED BY ALL OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE 29/00 UTC NAM. ALSO OF NOTE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD EAST ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THUS A MENTION OF THUNDER REMAINS JUSTIFIED
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
FAR NORTH TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION REMAIN LESS PROMINENT THAN EXPECTED...INCREASING W/SW
WINDS COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS A WIDER SWATH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED/WEAKENING BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE THE 29/00 UTC NAM IS
LIKELY OVERDONE DEPICTING A RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL JUSTIFIED IN THIS AREA MONDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH TAPER TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S WILL BE COMMON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND
FRONT WILL ALSO STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR PERHAPS JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO RIDE THE WEST/NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO MAINTAIN
RAIN-FREE FORECASTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INCLUDING A MENTION OF THUNDER ARE WARRANTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE NOT HIGH...AS PRECIPITATION COULD EITHER
STREAM MORE QUICKLY INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT OR
COULD BE HELD MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON BOTH DAYS...AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS MORNING...A SOLID NORTH/NE SURGE OF WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
MARINE DISTRICT IN RESPONSE TO A 1030 MB HIGH BUILDING OUT OF THE
VIRGINIAS. THE ENSUING COLD ADVECTION AND ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE
RISES OF CLOSE TO 1 MB/HOUR THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WILL BUMP
WINDS UP TO 15 OR 20 KT EVERYWHERE. THE GRADIENT WILL BE GREATEST
ON THE SC WATERS...AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE ZONES FOR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 KT. THE OTHER WATERS
WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS...BUT AT PRESENT THEY LOOK TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW THE CRITERIA.

THIS AFTERNOON...RAPID IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD
ADVECTION HALTS...PRESSURE RISES STOP AND THE CORE OF THE
CONTINENTAL HIGH SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL CLOCK
AROUND TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS...AS SEAS ALSO
SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT...THE NIGHT WILL BEGIN WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH
THE OFFSHORE TRANSITIONING HIGH...RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE WIND
AND LIMITED SEAS. THE HIGH EVENTUALLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS TRANSITION...ALONG WITH A DECENT
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AFTER 06Z...WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH/SW WINDS
TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS 10 OR 15 KT AS SEAS RISE MAYBE A FOOT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SURGE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STABLE
MARINE ENVIRONMENT...HELD WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A MODEST SURGE OF NORTHEAST
WINDS...BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY SCA CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY
LOW. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO STALL
AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK...BUT ONCE AGAIN
MARINE LAYER STABILITY COULD PREVENT SCA WINDS/SEAS.

ALSO OF NOTE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG OVER
NEAR SHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY UNTIL A COLD FROPA OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ350-352.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...WMS/
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...WMS/
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291342
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
942 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY...THEN SHIFT INTO THE
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES ARE STEADILY RISING ABOVE FREEZING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HAVE ALLOWED THE FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE
AT 9 AM AS SCHEDULED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUING THE REINFORCEMENT OF A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS. COLD
ADVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY WANE THIS AFTERNOON...AND UNDER FULL
INSOLATION...EXPECT A RATHER LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S
SOUTH...STILL CONSIDERABLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE MARCH.
COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE EVEN COOLER DUE TO THE INFLUX OF
MARINE AIR WITHIN THE EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEING TO MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
THIS EVENING...MAINTAINING A RATHER NEBULOUS GRADIENT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RAPID DECOUPLING AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
TRANSPIRE...CAUSING TEMPS TO PLUMMET QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S INLAND WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
A GOOD 5-8 HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING NORTH AND UP TO 8-10 HOURS
SOUTH. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING...MANY
INLAND AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THESE COLD
TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...WILL
LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED FROST ACROSS MUCH THE REGION INLAND
FROM US-17. AS SUCH...WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST
ADVISORY AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL STALL
OR EVEN RISE WHEN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SW
AND WARM ADVECTION TAKES HOLD LATE TONIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST/NW LATE IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE NEARING THE APPALACHIANS BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A PREFRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE...MAINLY SUPPORTED BY AN 850
MB WESTERLY JET AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WILL
TRANSLATE QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTH/ SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FORCING SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...AND THE AXIS
OF ENHANCED 850-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BECOME LESS WELL-
DEFINED WITH TIME. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING TRENDS EVIDENT IN
FORCING/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELDS...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 30-40
PERCENT LATE MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ADJUSTED
TIMING OF TO FAVOR A FASTER TREND FAVORED BY ALL OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE 29/00 UTC NAM. ALSO OF NOTE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD EAST ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THUS A MENTION OF THUNDER REMAINS JUSTIFIED
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
FAR NORTH TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION REMAIN LESS PROMINENT THAN EXPECTED...INCREASING W/SW
WINDS COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS A WIDER SWATH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED/WEAKENING BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE THE 29/00 UTC NAM IS
LIKELY OVERDONE DEPICTING A RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL JUSTIFIED IN THIS AREA MONDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH TAPER TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S WILL BE COMMON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND
FRONT WILL ALSO STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR PERHAPS JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO RIDE THE WEST/NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO MAINTAIN
RAIN-FREE FORECASTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INCLUDING A MENTION OF THUNDER ARE WARRANTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE NOT HIGH...AS PRECIPITATION COULD EITHER
STREAM MORE QUICKLY INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT OR
COULD BE HELD MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON BOTH DAYS...AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS MORNING...A SOLID NORTH/NE SURGE OF WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
MARINE DISTRICT IN RESPONSE TO A 1030 MB HIGH BUILDING OUT OF THE
VIRGINIAS. THE ENSUING COLD ADVECTION AND ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE
RISES OF CLOSE TO 1 MB/HOUR THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WILL BUMP
WINDS UP TO 15 OR 20 KT EVERYWHERE. THE GRADIENT WILL BE GREATEST
ON THE SC WATERS...AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE ZONES FOR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 KT. THE OTHER WATERS
WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS...BUT AT PRESENT THEY LOOK TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW THE CRITERIA.

THIS AFTERNOON...RAPID IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD
ADVECTION HALTS...PRESSURE RISES STOP AND THE CORE OF THE
CONTINENTAL HIGH SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL CLOCK
AROUND TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS...AS SEAS ALSO
SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT...THE NIGHT WILL BEGIN WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH
THE OFFSHORE TRANSITIONING HIGH...RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE WIND
AND LIMITED SEAS. THE HIGH EVENTUALLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS TRANSITION...ALONG WITH A DECENT
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AFTER 06Z...WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH/SW WINDS
TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS 10 OR 15 KT AS SEAS RISE MAYBE A FOOT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SURGE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STABLE
MARINE ENVIRONMENT...HELD WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A MODEST SURGE OF NORTHEAST
WINDS...BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY SCA CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY
LOW. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO STALL
AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK...BUT ONCE AGAIN
MARINE LAYER STABILITY COULD PREVENT SCA WINDS/SEAS.

ALSO OF NOTE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG OVER
NEAR SHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY UNTIL A COLD FROPA OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ350-352.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...WMS/
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...WMS/
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291141
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL RESIDING OVER
THE REGION TODAY. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. LOW-LEVEL
JET AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS...AND ABOVE FREEZING ELSEWHERE. FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 2 AM UNTIL 10 AM THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE AREA BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NC/VA. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291141
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL RESIDING OVER
THE REGION TODAY. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. LOW-LEVEL
JET AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS...AND ABOVE FREEZING ELSEWHERE. FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 2 AM UNTIL 10 AM THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE AREA BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NC/VA. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 291141
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL RESIDING OVER
THE REGION TODAY. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. LOW-LEVEL
JET AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS...AND ABOVE FREEZING ELSEWHERE. FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 2 AM UNTIL 10 AM THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE AREA BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NC/VA. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291141
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL RESIDING OVER
THE REGION TODAY. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. LOW-LEVEL
JET AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS...AND ABOVE FREEZING ELSEWHERE. FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 2 AM UNTIL 10 AM THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE AREA BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NC/VA. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291141
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL RESIDING OVER
THE REGION TODAY. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. LOW-LEVEL
JET AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS...AND ABOVE FREEZING ELSEWHERE. FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 2 AM UNTIL 10 AM THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE AREA BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NC/VA. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291141
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL RESIDING OVER
THE REGION TODAY. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. LOW-LEVEL
JET AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS...AND ABOVE FREEZING ELSEWHERE. FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 2 AM UNTIL 10 AM THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE AREA BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NC/VA. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 291140
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
740 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY...THEN SHIFTS INTO THE
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS CONTINUED ITS
STEADY TREK SOUTHWARD AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS A LARGE AND COLD ARCTIC HIGH THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR ABOUT
1-3 HOURS ALONG OUR NW TIER...WHERE THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD COLD AS
SHOWN IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. THIS TRANSITION HAS ALSO
CAUSED MIXING TO INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES ITS
PENETRATION SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NE WINDS
APPROACHING LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE MOULTRIE...WHERE
WE HAVE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

FOR THE BULK OF TODAY...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FRESHER CANADIAN AIR
MASS THERE ISN/T MUCH MODIFICATION THAT IS ABLE TO OCCUR. ALTHOUGH
COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL SHUT OFF AND BECOME NEUTRAL OR
EVEN SHOW SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE FULL
INSOLATION UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE HIGH AS IT SLIDES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR A LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS...SOME
20-30F...LEADING TO MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ONSHORE
TRAJECTORIES WILL HOLD SHORELINE COMMUNITIES SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE INLAND.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH IS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...AND THE GRADIENT IS RATHER NEBULOUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DECOUPLING AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL TRANSPIRE...CAUSING TEMPS TO PLUMMET QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE/LL EXPERIENCE A
GOOD 5-8 HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING NORTH AND UP TO 8-10 HOURS
SOUTH. WHILE IT WON/T BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING...MANY SECTIONS
INLAND WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS COMBINED WITH SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED FROST
ACROSS MUCH THE REGION INLAND FROM US-17. AS SUCH WE/LL MOST
LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.
FOR LATE TONIGHT OUR TEMPS WILL STEADY OFF OR EVEN RISE AS THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SW AND WARM ADVECTION
TAKES HOLD AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES
EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM
THE WEST/NW LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
NEARING THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A PREFRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE...MAINLY SUPPORTED BY AN 850
MB WESTERLY JET AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WILL
TRANSLATE QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTH/ SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FORCING SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...AND THE AXIS
OF ENHANCED 850-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BECOME LESS WELL-
DEFINED WITH TIME. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING TRENDS EVIDENT IN
FORCING/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELDS...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 30-40
PERCENT LATE MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ADJUSTED
TIMING OF TO FAVOR A FASTER TREND FAVORED BY ALL OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE 29/00 UTC NAM. ALSO OF NOTE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD EAST ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THUS A MENTION OF THUNDER REMAINS JUSTIFIED
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
FAR NORTH TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION REMAIN LESS PROMINENT THAN EXPECTED...INCREASING W/SW
WINDS COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS A WIDER SWATH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED/WEAKENING BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE THE 29/00 UTC NAM IS
LIKELY OVERDONE DEPICTING A RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL JUSTIFIED IN THIS AREA MONDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH TAPER TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S WILL BE COMMON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND
FRONT WILL ALSO STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR PERHAPS JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO RIDE THE WEST/NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO MAINTAIN
RAIN-FREE FORECASTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INCLUDING A MENTION OF THUNDER ARE WARRANTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE NOT HIGH...AS PRECIPITATION COULD EITHER
STREAM MORE QUICKLY INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT OR
COULD BE HELD MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON BOTH DAYS...AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS MORNING...A SOLID NORTH/NE SURGE OF WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
MARINE DISTRICT IN RESPONSE TO A 1030 MB HIGH BUILDING OUT OF THE
VIRGINIAS. THE ENSUING COLD ADVECTION AND ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE
RISES OF CLOSE TO 1 MB/HOUR THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WILL BUMP
WINDS UP TO 15 OR 20 KT EVERYWHERE. BUT THE GRADIENT WILL BE
GREATEST ON THE SC WATERS...AND IT IS HERE WHERE WE HAVE HOISTED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON AMZ350-352 THROUGH MIDDAY FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 25 KT. THE OTHER WATERS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...BUT AT PRESENT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE
CRITERIA.

THIS AFTERNOON...RAPID IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD
ADVECTION HALTS...PRESSURE RISES STOP AND THE CORE OF THE
CONTINENTAL HIGH SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL CLOCK
AROUND TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS AS SEAS ALSO FALL.

TONIGHT...WE/LL START THE NIGHT UNDERNEATH THE OFFSHORE
TRANSITIONING HIGH...RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE WIND AND LIMITED
SEAS. BUT THE HIGH DOES SLIDE SE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THIS ALONG WITH A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AFTER 06Z WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTH/SW WINDS TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS 10 OR 15 KT AS SEAS
RISE MAYBE A FOOT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SURGE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STABLE
MARINE ENVIRONMENT...HELD WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A MODEST SURGE OF NORTHEAST
WINDS...BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY SCA CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY
LOW. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO STALL
AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK...BUT ONCE AGAIN
MARINE LAYER STABILITY COULD PREVENT SCA WINDS/SEAS.

ALSO OF NOTE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG OVER
NEAR SHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY UNTIL A COLD FROPA OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS MARCH 29TH...
KCHS...32 SET IN 1969.
KSAV...33 SET IN 1955.
KCXM...37 SET IN 1982.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ350-352.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291140
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
740 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY...THEN SHIFTS INTO THE
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS CONTINUED ITS
STEADY TREK SOUTHWARD AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS A LARGE AND COLD ARCTIC HIGH THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR ABOUT
1-3 HOURS ALONG OUR NW TIER...WHERE THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD COLD AS
SHOWN IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. THIS TRANSITION HAS ALSO
CAUSED MIXING TO INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES ITS
PENETRATION SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NE WINDS
APPROACHING LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE MOULTRIE...WHERE
WE HAVE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

FOR THE BULK OF TODAY...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FRESHER CANADIAN AIR
MASS THERE ISN/T MUCH MODIFICATION THAT IS ABLE TO OCCUR. ALTHOUGH
COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL SHUT OFF AND BECOME NEUTRAL OR
EVEN SHOW SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE FULL
INSOLATION UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE HIGH AS IT SLIDES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR A LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS...SOME
20-30F...LEADING TO MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ONSHORE
TRAJECTORIES WILL HOLD SHORELINE COMMUNITIES SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE INLAND.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH IS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...AND THE GRADIENT IS RATHER NEBULOUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DECOUPLING AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL TRANSPIRE...CAUSING TEMPS TO PLUMMET QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE/LL EXPERIENCE A
GOOD 5-8 HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING NORTH AND UP TO 8-10 HOURS
SOUTH. WHILE IT WON/T BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING...MANY SECTIONS
INLAND WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS COMBINED WITH SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED FROST
ACROSS MUCH THE REGION INLAND FROM US-17. AS SUCH WE/LL MOST
LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.
FOR LATE TONIGHT OUR TEMPS WILL STEADY OFF OR EVEN RISE AS THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SW AND WARM ADVECTION
TAKES HOLD AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES
EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM
THE WEST/NW LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
NEARING THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A PREFRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE...MAINLY SUPPORTED BY AN 850
MB WESTERLY JET AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WILL
TRANSLATE QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTH/ SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FORCING SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...AND THE AXIS
OF ENHANCED 850-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BECOME LESS WELL-
DEFINED WITH TIME. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING TRENDS EVIDENT IN
FORCING/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELDS...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 30-40
PERCENT LATE MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ADJUSTED
TIMING OF TO FAVOR A FASTER TREND FAVORED BY ALL OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE 29/00 UTC NAM. ALSO OF NOTE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD EAST ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THUS A MENTION OF THUNDER REMAINS JUSTIFIED
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
FAR NORTH TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION REMAIN LESS PROMINENT THAN EXPECTED...INCREASING W/SW
WINDS COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS A WIDER SWATH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED/WEAKENING BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE THE 29/00 UTC NAM IS
LIKELY OVERDONE DEPICTING A RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL JUSTIFIED IN THIS AREA MONDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH TAPER TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S WILL BE COMMON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND
FRONT WILL ALSO STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR PERHAPS JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO RIDE THE WEST/NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO MAINTAIN
RAIN-FREE FORECASTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INCLUDING A MENTION OF THUNDER ARE WARRANTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE NOT HIGH...AS PRECIPITATION COULD EITHER
STREAM MORE QUICKLY INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT OR
COULD BE HELD MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON BOTH DAYS...AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS MORNING...A SOLID NORTH/NE SURGE OF WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
MARINE DISTRICT IN RESPONSE TO A 1030 MB HIGH BUILDING OUT OF THE
VIRGINIAS. THE ENSUING COLD ADVECTION AND ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE
RISES OF CLOSE TO 1 MB/HOUR THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WILL BUMP
WINDS UP TO 15 OR 20 KT EVERYWHERE. BUT THE GRADIENT WILL BE
GREATEST ON THE SC WATERS...AND IT IS HERE WHERE WE HAVE HOISTED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON AMZ350-352 THROUGH MIDDAY FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 25 KT. THE OTHER WATERS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...BUT AT PRESENT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE
CRITERIA.

THIS AFTERNOON...RAPID IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD
ADVECTION HALTS...PRESSURE RISES STOP AND THE CORE OF THE
CONTINENTAL HIGH SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL CLOCK
AROUND TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS AS SEAS ALSO FALL.

TONIGHT...WE/LL START THE NIGHT UNDERNEATH THE OFFSHORE
TRANSITIONING HIGH...RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE WIND AND LIMITED
SEAS. BUT THE HIGH DOES SLIDE SE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THIS ALONG WITH A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AFTER 06Z WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTH/SW WINDS TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS 10 OR 15 KT AS SEAS
RISE MAYBE A FOOT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SURGE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STABLE
MARINE ENVIRONMENT...HELD WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A MODEST SURGE OF NORTHEAST
WINDS...BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY SCA CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY
LOW. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO STALL
AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK...BUT ONCE AGAIN
MARINE LAYER STABILITY COULD PREVENT SCA WINDS/SEAS.

ALSO OF NOTE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG OVER
NEAR SHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY UNTIL A COLD FROPA OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS MARCH 29TH...
KCHS...32 SET IN 1969.
KSAV...33 SET IN 1955.
KCXM...37 SET IN 1982.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ350-352.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291140
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
740 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY...THEN SHIFTS INTO THE
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS CONTINUED ITS
STEADY TREK SOUTHWARD AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS A LARGE AND COLD ARCTIC HIGH THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR ABOUT
1-3 HOURS ALONG OUR NW TIER...WHERE THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD COLD AS
SHOWN IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. THIS TRANSITION HAS ALSO
CAUSED MIXING TO INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES ITS
PENETRATION SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NE WINDS
APPROACHING LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE MOULTRIE...WHERE
WE HAVE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

FOR THE BULK OF TODAY...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FRESHER CANADIAN AIR
MASS THERE ISN/T MUCH MODIFICATION THAT IS ABLE TO OCCUR. ALTHOUGH
COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL SHUT OFF AND BECOME NEUTRAL OR
EVEN SHOW SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE FULL
INSOLATION UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE HIGH AS IT SLIDES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR A LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS...SOME
20-30F...LEADING TO MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ONSHORE
TRAJECTORIES WILL HOLD SHORELINE COMMUNITIES SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE INLAND.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH IS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...AND THE GRADIENT IS RATHER NEBULOUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DECOUPLING AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL TRANSPIRE...CAUSING TEMPS TO PLUMMET QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE/LL EXPERIENCE A
GOOD 5-8 HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING NORTH AND UP TO 8-10 HOURS
SOUTH. WHILE IT WON/T BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING...MANY SECTIONS
INLAND WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS COMBINED WITH SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED FROST
ACROSS MUCH THE REGION INLAND FROM US-17. AS SUCH WE/LL MOST
LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.
FOR LATE TONIGHT OUR TEMPS WILL STEADY OFF OR EVEN RISE AS THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SW AND WARM ADVECTION
TAKES HOLD AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES
EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM
THE WEST/NW LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
NEARING THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A PREFRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE...MAINLY SUPPORTED BY AN 850
MB WESTERLY JET AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WILL
TRANSLATE QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTH/ SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FORCING SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...AND THE AXIS
OF ENHANCED 850-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BECOME LESS WELL-
DEFINED WITH TIME. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING TRENDS EVIDENT IN
FORCING/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELDS...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 30-40
PERCENT LATE MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ADJUSTED
TIMING OF TO FAVOR A FASTER TREND FAVORED BY ALL OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE 29/00 UTC NAM. ALSO OF NOTE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD EAST ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THUS A MENTION OF THUNDER REMAINS JUSTIFIED
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
FAR NORTH TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION REMAIN LESS PROMINENT THAN EXPECTED...INCREASING W/SW
WINDS COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS A WIDER SWATH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED/WEAKENING BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE THE 29/00 UTC NAM IS
LIKELY OVERDONE DEPICTING A RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL JUSTIFIED IN THIS AREA MONDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH TAPER TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S WILL BE COMMON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND
FRONT WILL ALSO STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR PERHAPS JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO RIDE THE WEST/NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO MAINTAIN
RAIN-FREE FORECASTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INCLUDING A MENTION OF THUNDER ARE WARRANTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE NOT HIGH...AS PRECIPITATION COULD EITHER
STREAM MORE QUICKLY INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT OR
COULD BE HELD MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON BOTH DAYS...AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS MORNING...A SOLID NORTH/NE SURGE OF WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
MARINE DISTRICT IN RESPONSE TO A 1030 MB HIGH BUILDING OUT OF THE
VIRGINIAS. THE ENSUING COLD ADVECTION AND ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE
RISES OF CLOSE TO 1 MB/HOUR THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WILL BUMP
WINDS UP TO 15 OR 20 KT EVERYWHERE. BUT THE GRADIENT WILL BE
GREATEST ON THE SC WATERS...AND IT IS HERE WHERE WE HAVE HOISTED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON AMZ350-352 THROUGH MIDDAY FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 25 KT. THE OTHER WATERS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...BUT AT PRESENT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE
CRITERIA.

THIS AFTERNOON...RAPID IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD
ADVECTION HALTS...PRESSURE RISES STOP AND THE CORE OF THE
CONTINENTAL HIGH SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL CLOCK
AROUND TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS AS SEAS ALSO FALL.

TONIGHT...WE/LL START THE NIGHT UNDERNEATH THE OFFSHORE
TRANSITIONING HIGH...RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE WIND AND LIMITED
SEAS. BUT THE HIGH DOES SLIDE SE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THIS ALONG WITH A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AFTER 06Z WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTH/SW WINDS TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS 10 OR 15 KT AS SEAS
RISE MAYBE A FOOT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SURGE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STABLE
MARINE ENVIRONMENT...HELD WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A MODEST SURGE OF NORTHEAST
WINDS...BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY SCA CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY
LOW. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO STALL
AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK...BUT ONCE AGAIN
MARINE LAYER STABILITY COULD PREVENT SCA WINDS/SEAS.

ALSO OF NOTE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG OVER
NEAR SHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY UNTIL A COLD FROPA OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS MARCH 29TH...
KCHS...32 SET IN 1969.
KSAV...33 SET IN 1955.
KCXM...37 SET IN 1982.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ350-352.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291140
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
740 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY...THEN SHIFTS INTO THE
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS CONTINUED ITS
STEADY TREK SOUTHWARD AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS A LARGE AND COLD ARCTIC HIGH THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR ABOUT
1-3 HOURS ALONG OUR NW TIER...WHERE THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD COLD AS
SHOWN IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. THIS TRANSITION HAS ALSO
CAUSED MIXING TO INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES ITS
PENETRATION SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NE WINDS
APPROACHING LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE MOULTRIE...WHERE
WE HAVE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

FOR THE BULK OF TODAY...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FRESHER CANADIAN AIR
MASS THERE ISN/T MUCH MODIFICATION THAT IS ABLE TO OCCUR. ALTHOUGH
COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL SHUT OFF AND BECOME NEUTRAL OR
EVEN SHOW SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE FULL
INSOLATION UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE HIGH AS IT SLIDES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR A LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS...SOME
20-30F...LEADING TO MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ONSHORE
TRAJECTORIES WILL HOLD SHORELINE COMMUNITIES SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE INLAND.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH IS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...AND THE GRADIENT IS RATHER NEBULOUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DECOUPLING AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL TRANSPIRE...CAUSING TEMPS TO PLUMMET QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE/LL EXPERIENCE A
GOOD 5-8 HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING NORTH AND UP TO 8-10 HOURS
SOUTH. WHILE IT WON/T BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING...MANY SECTIONS
INLAND WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS COMBINED WITH SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED FROST
ACROSS MUCH THE REGION INLAND FROM US-17. AS SUCH WE/LL MOST
LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.
FOR LATE TONIGHT OUR TEMPS WILL STEADY OFF OR EVEN RISE AS THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SW AND WARM ADVECTION
TAKES HOLD AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES
EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM
THE WEST/NW LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
NEARING THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A PREFRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE...MAINLY SUPPORTED BY AN 850
MB WESTERLY JET AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WILL
TRANSLATE QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTH/ SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FORCING SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...AND THE AXIS
OF ENHANCED 850-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BECOME LESS WELL-
DEFINED WITH TIME. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING TRENDS EVIDENT IN
FORCING/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELDS...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 30-40
PERCENT LATE MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ADJUSTED
TIMING OF TO FAVOR A FASTER TREND FAVORED BY ALL OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE 29/00 UTC NAM. ALSO OF NOTE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD EAST ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THUS A MENTION OF THUNDER REMAINS JUSTIFIED
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
FAR NORTH TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION REMAIN LESS PROMINENT THAN EXPECTED...INCREASING W/SW
WINDS COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS A WIDER SWATH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED/WEAKENING BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE THE 29/00 UTC NAM IS
LIKELY OVERDONE DEPICTING A RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL JUSTIFIED IN THIS AREA MONDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH TAPER TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S WILL BE COMMON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND
FRONT WILL ALSO STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR PERHAPS JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO RIDE THE WEST/NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO MAINTAIN
RAIN-FREE FORECASTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INCLUDING A MENTION OF THUNDER ARE WARRANTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE NOT HIGH...AS PRECIPITATION COULD EITHER
STREAM MORE QUICKLY INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT OR
COULD BE HELD MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON BOTH DAYS...AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS MORNING...A SOLID NORTH/NE SURGE OF WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
MARINE DISTRICT IN RESPONSE TO A 1030 MB HIGH BUILDING OUT OF THE
VIRGINIAS. THE ENSUING COLD ADVECTION AND ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE
RISES OF CLOSE TO 1 MB/HOUR THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WILL BUMP
WINDS UP TO 15 OR 20 KT EVERYWHERE. BUT THE GRADIENT WILL BE
GREATEST ON THE SC WATERS...AND IT IS HERE WHERE WE HAVE HOISTED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON AMZ350-352 THROUGH MIDDAY FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 25 KT. THE OTHER WATERS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...BUT AT PRESENT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE
CRITERIA.

THIS AFTERNOON...RAPID IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD
ADVECTION HALTS...PRESSURE RISES STOP AND THE CORE OF THE
CONTINENTAL HIGH SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL CLOCK
AROUND TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS AS SEAS ALSO FALL.

TONIGHT...WE/LL START THE NIGHT UNDERNEATH THE OFFSHORE
TRANSITIONING HIGH...RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE WIND AND LIMITED
SEAS. BUT THE HIGH DOES SLIDE SE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THIS ALONG WITH A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AFTER 06Z WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTH/SW WINDS TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS 10 OR 15 KT AS SEAS
RISE MAYBE A FOOT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SURGE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STABLE
MARINE ENVIRONMENT...HELD WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A MODEST SURGE OF NORTHEAST
WINDS...BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY SCA CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY
LOW. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO STALL
AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK...BUT ONCE AGAIN
MARINE LAYER STABILITY COULD PREVENT SCA WINDS/SEAS.

ALSO OF NOTE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG OVER
NEAR SHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY UNTIL A COLD FROPA OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS MARCH 29TH...
KCHS...32 SET IN 1969.
KSAV...33 SET IN 1955.
KCXM...37 SET IN 1982.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ350-352.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291140
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
740 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY...THEN SHIFTS INTO THE
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS CONTINUED ITS
STEADY TREK SOUTHWARD AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS A LARGE AND COLD ARCTIC HIGH THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR ABOUT
1-3 HOURS ALONG OUR NW TIER...WHERE THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD COLD AS
SHOWN IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. THIS TRANSITION HAS ALSO
CAUSED MIXING TO INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES ITS
PENETRATION SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NE WINDS
APPROACHING LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE MOULTRIE...WHERE
WE HAVE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

FOR THE BULK OF TODAY...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FRESHER CANADIAN AIR
MASS THERE ISN/T MUCH MODIFICATION THAT IS ABLE TO OCCUR. ALTHOUGH
COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL SHUT OFF AND BECOME NEUTRAL OR
EVEN SHOW SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE FULL
INSOLATION UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE HIGH AS IT SLIDES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR A LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS...SOME
20-30F...LEADING TO MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ONSHORE
TRAJECTORIES WILL HOLD SHORELINE COMMUNITIES SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE INLAND.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH IS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...AND THE GRADIENT IS RATHER NEBULOUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DECOUPLING AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL TRANSPIRE...CAUSING TEMPS TO PLUMMET QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE/LL EXPERIENCE A
GOOD 5-8 HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING NORTH AND UP TO 8-10 HOURS
SOUTH. WHILE IT WON/T BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING...MANY SECTIONS
INLAND WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS COMBINED WITH SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED FROST
ACROSS MUCH THE REGION INLAND FROM US-17. AS SUCH WE/LL MOST
LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.
FOR LATE TONIGHT OUR TEMPS WILL STEADY OFF OR EVEN RISE AS THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SW AND WARM ADVECTION
TAKES HOLD AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES
EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM
THE WEST/NW LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
NEARING THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A PREFRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE...MAINLY SUPPORTED BY AN 850
MB WESTERLY JET AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WILL
TRANSLATE QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTH/ SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FORCING SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...AND THE AXIS
OF ENHANCED 850-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BECOME LESS WELL-
DEFINED WITH TIME. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING TRENDS EVIDENT IN
FORCING/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELDS...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 30-40
PERCENT LATE MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ADJUSTED
TIMING OF TO FAVOR A FASTER TREND FAVORED BY ALL OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE 29/00 UTC NAM. ALSO OF NOTE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD EAST ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THUS A MENTION OF THUNDER REMAINS JUSTIFIED
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
FAR NORTH TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION REMAIN LESS PROMINENT THAN EXPECTED...INCREASING W/SW
WINDS COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS A WIDER SWATH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED/WEAKENING BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE THE 29/00 UTC NAM IS
LIKELY OVERDONE DEPICTING A RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL JUSTIFIED IN THIS AREA MONDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH TAPER TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S WILL BE COMMON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND
FRONT WILL ALSO STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR PERHAPS JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO RIDE THE WEST/NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO MAINTAIN
RAIN-FREE FORECASTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INCLUDING A MENTION OF THUNDER ARE WARRANTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE NOT HIGH...AS PRECIPITATION COULD EITHER
STREAM MORE QUICKLY INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT OR
COULD BE HELD MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON BOTH DAYS...AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS MORNING...A SOLID NORTH/NE SURGE OF WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
MARINE DISTRICT IN RESPONSE TO A 1030 MB HIGH BUILDING OUT OF THE
VIRGINIAS. THE ENSUING COLD ADVECTION AND ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE
RISES OF CLOSE TO 1 MB/HOUR THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WILL BUMP
WINDS UP TO 15 OR 20 KT EVERYWHERE. BUT THE GRADIENT WILL BE
GREATEST ON THE SC WATERS...AND IT IS HERE WHERE WE HAVE HOISTED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON AMZ350-352 THROUGH MIDDAY FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 25 KT. THE OTHER WATERS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...BUT AT PRESENT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE
CRITERIA.

THIS AFTERNOON...RAPID IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD
ADVECTION HALTS...PRESSURE RISES STOP AND THE CORE OF THE
CONTINENTAL HIGH SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL CLOCK
AROUND TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS AS SEAS ALSO FALL.

TONIGHT...WE/LL START THE NIGHT UNDERNEATH THE OFFSHORE
TRANSITIONING HIGH...RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE WIND AND LIMITED
SEAS. BUT THE HIGH DOES SLIDE SE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THIS ALONG WITH A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AFTER 06Z WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTH/SW WINDS TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS 10 OR 15 KT AS SEAS
RISE MAYBE A FOOT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SURGE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STABLE
MARINE ENVIRONMENT...HELD WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A MODEST SURGE OF NORTHEAST
WINDS...BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY SCA CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY
LOW. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO STALL
AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK...BUT ONCE AGAIN
MARINE LAYER STABILITY COULD PREVENT SCA WINDS/SEAS.

ALSO OF NOTE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG OVER
NEAR SHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY UNTIL A COLD FROPA OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS MARCH 29TH...
KCHS...32 SET IN 1969.
KSAV...33 SET IN 1955.
KCXM...37 SET IN 1982.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ350-352.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291140
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
740 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY...THEN SHIFTS INTO THE
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS CONTINUED ITS
STEADY TREK SOUTHWARD AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS A LARGE AND COLD ARCTIC HIGH THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR ABOUT
1-3 HOURS ALONG OUR NW TIER...WHERE THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD COLD AS
SHOWN IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. THIS TRANSITION HAS ALSO
CAUSED MIXING TO INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES ITS
PENETRATION SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NE WINDS
APPROACHING LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE MOULTRIE...WHERE
WE HAVE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

FOR THE BULK OF TODAY...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FRESHER CANADIAN AIR
MASS THERE ISN/T MUCH MODIFICATION THAT IS ABLE TO OCCUR. ALTHOUGH
COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL SHUT OFF AND BECOME NEUTRAL OR
EVEN SHOW SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE FULL
INSOLATION UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE HIGH AS IT SLIDES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR A LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS...SOME
20-30F...LEADING TO MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ONSHORE
TRAJECTORIES WILL HOLD SHORELINE COMMUNITIES SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE INLAND.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH IS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...AND THE GRADIENT IS RATHER NEBULOUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DECOUPLING AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL TRANSPIRE...CAUSING TEMPS TO PLUMMET QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE/LL EXPERIENCE A
GOOD 5-8 HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING NORTH AND UP TO 8-10 HOURS
SOUTH. WHILE IT WON/T BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING...MANY SECTIONS
INLAND WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS COMBINED WITH SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED FROST
ACROSS MUCH THE REGION INLAND FROM US-17. AS SUCH WE/LL MOST
LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.
FOR LATE TONIGHT OUR TEMPS WILL STEADY OFF OR EVEN RISE AS THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SW AND WARM ADVECTION
TAKES HOLD AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES
EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM
THE WEST/NW LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
NEARING THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A PREFRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE...MAINLY SUPPORTED BY AN 850
MB WESTERLY JET AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WILL
TRANSLATE QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTH/ SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FORCING SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...AND THE AXIS
OF ENHANCED 850-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BECOME LESS WELL-
DEFINED WITH TIME. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING TRENDS EVIDENT IN
FORCING/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELDS...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 30-40
PERCENT LATE MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ADJUSTED
TIMING OF TO FAVOR A FASTER TREND FAVORED BY ALL OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE 29/00 UTC NAM. ALSO OF NOTE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD EAST ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THUS A MENTION OF THUNDER REMAINS JUSTIFIED
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
FAR NORTH TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION REMAIN LESS PROMINENT THAN EXPECTED...INCREASING W/SW
WINDS COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS A WIDER SWATH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED/WEAKENING BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE THE 29/00 UTC NAM IS
LIKELY OVERDONE DEPICTING A RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL JUSTIFIED IN THIS AREA MONDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH TAPER TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S WILL BE COMMON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND
FRONT WILL ALSO STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR PERHAPS JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO RIDE THE WEST/NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO MAINTAIN
RAIN-FREE FORECASTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INCLUDING A MENTION OF THUNDER ARE WARRANTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE NOT HIGH...AS PRECIPITATION COULD EITHER
STREAM MORE QUICKLY INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT OR
COULD BE HELD MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON BOTH DAYS...AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS MORNING...A SOLID NORTH/NE SURGE OF WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
MARINE DISTRICT IN RESPONSE TO A 1030 MB HIGH BUILDING OUT OF THE
VIRGINIAS. THE ENSUING COLD ADVECTION AND ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE
RISES OF CLOSE TO 1 MB/HOUR THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WILL BUMP
WINDS UP TO 15 OR 20 KT EVERYWHERE. BUT THE GRADIENT WILL BE
GREATEST ON THE SC WATERS...AND IT IS HERE WHERE WE HAVE HOISTED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON AMZ350-352 THROUGH MIDDAY FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 25 KT. THE OTHER WATERS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...BUT AT PRESENT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE
CRITERIA.

THIS AFTERNOON...RAPID IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD
ADVECTION HALTS...PRESSURE RISES STOP AND THE CORE OF THE
CONTINENTAL HIGH SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL CLOCK
AROUND TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS AS SEAS ALSO FALL.

TONIGHT...WE/LL START THE NIGHT UNDERNEATH THE OFFSHORE
TRANSITIONING HIGH...RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE WIND AND LIMITED
SEAS. BUT THE HIGH DOES SLIDE SE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THIS ALONG WITH A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AFTER 06Z WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTH/SW WINDS TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS 10 OR 15 KT AS SEAS
RISE MAYBE A FOOT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SURGE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STABLE
MARINE ENVIRONMENT...HELD WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A MODEST SURGE OF NORTHEAST
WINDS...BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY SCA CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY
LOW. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO STALL
AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK...BUT ONCE AGAIN
MARINE LAYER STABILITY COULD PREVENT SCA WINDS/SEAS.

ALSO OF NOTE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG OVER
NEAR SHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY UNTIL A COLD FROPA OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS MARCH 29TH...
KCHS...32 SET IN 1969.
KSAV...33 SET IN 1955.
KCXM...37 SET IN 1982.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ350-352.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KFFC 291130
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES AREA
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWFA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF GA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP THAN THE NAM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DIMINISHING THE PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS THE BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES SHUNT TO THE NORTH.

MODELS ARE ALSO TRYING TO BRING A LITTLE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT STILL THINK THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE. SO...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TODAY WITH CIGS AROUND 050 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS
MAY DIP TO MVFR VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL BRING PRECIP...BUT IT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MID MORNING. MODELS WANT TO DECREASE THE PRECIP AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED A VCSH FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NE/E BY LATE MORNING TODAY
AND THEN SOUTH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  44  68  43 /   0  40  50   0
ATLANTA         59  47  67  46 /   0  40  50   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  42  61  37 /   0  60  70   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  46  68  42 /   0  50  70   0
COLUMBUS        63  48  72  50 /   0  30  50  20
GAINESVILLE     57  45  65  43 /   0  40  50   0
MACON           61  45  70  46 /   0  20  50  20
ROME            60  47  68  41 /   0  60  70   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  46  68  43 /   0  40  50  10
VIDALIA         62  45  72  50 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BUTTS...
CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...
COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...
MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...
PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TROUP...
TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 291130
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES AREA
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWFA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF GA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP THAN THE NAM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DIMINISHING THE PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS THE BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES SHUNT TO THE NORTH.

MODELS ARE ALSO TRYING TO BRING A LITTLE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT STILL THINK THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE. SO...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TODAY WITH CIGS AROUND 050 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS
MAY DIP TO MVFR VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL BRING PRECIP...BUT IT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MID MORNING. MODELS WANT TO DECREASE THE PRECIP AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED A VCSH FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NE/E BY LATE MORNING TODAY
AND THEN SOUTH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  44  68  43 /   0  40  50   0
ATLANTA         59  47  67  46 /   0  40  50   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  42  61  37 /   0  60  70   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  46  68  42 /   0  50  70   0
COLUMBUS        63  48  72  50 /   0  30  50  20
GAINESVILLE     57  45  65  43 /   0  40  50   0
MACON           61  45  70  46 /   0  20  50  20
ROME            60  47  68  41 /   0  60  70   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  46  68  43 /   0  40  50  10
VIDALIA         62  45  72  50 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BUTTS...
CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...
COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...
MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...
PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TROUP...
TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291130
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES AREA
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWFA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF GA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP THAN THE NAM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DIMINISHING THE PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS THE BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES SHUNT TO THE NORTH.

MODELS ARE ALSO TRYING TO BRING A LITTLE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT STILL THINK THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE. SO...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TODAY WITH CIGS AROUND 050 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS
MAY DIP TO MVFR VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL BRING PRECIP...BUT IT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MID MORNING. MODELS WANT TO DECREASE THE PRECIP AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED A VCSH FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NE/E BY LATE MORNING TODAY
AND THEN SOUTH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  44  68  43 /   0  40  50   0
ATLANTA         59  47  67  46 /   0  40  50   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  42  61  37 /   0  60  70   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  46  68  42 /   0  50  70   0
COLUMBUS        63  48  72  50 /   0  30  50  20
GAINESVILLE     57  45  65  43 /   0  40  50   0
MACON           61  45  70  46 /   0  20  50  20
ROME            60  47  68  41 /   0  60  70   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  46  68  43 /   0  40  50  10
VIDALIA         62  45  72  50 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BUTTS...
CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...
COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...
MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...
PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TROUP...
TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 291130
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES AREA
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWFA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF GA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP THAN THE NAM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DIMINISHING THE PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS THE BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES SHUNT TO THE NORTH.

MODELS ARE ALSO TRYING TO BRING A LITTLE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT STILL THINK THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE. SO...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TODAY WITH CIGS AROUND 050 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS
MAY DIP TO MVFR VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL BRING PRECIP...BUT IT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MID MORNING. MODELS WANT TO DECREASE THE PRECIP AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED A VCSH FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NE/E BY LATE MORNING TODAY
AND THEN SOUTH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  44  68  43 /   0  40  50   0
ATLANTA         59  47  67  46 /   0  40  50   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  42  61  37 /   0  60  70   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  46  68  42 /   0  50  70   0
COLUMBUS        63  48  72  50 /   0  30  50  20
GAINESVILLE     57  45  65  43 /   0  40  50   0
MACON           61  45  70  46 /   0  20  50  20
ROME            60  47  68  41 /   0  60  70   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  46  68  43 /   0  40  50  10
VIDALIA         62  45  72  50 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BUTTS...
CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...
COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...
MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...
PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TROUP...
TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291116
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
716 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY...THEN SHIFTS INTO THE
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS CONTINUED ITS
STEADY TREK SOUTHWARD AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS A LARGE AND COLD ARCTIC HIGH THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR ABOUT
1-3 HOURS ALONG OUR NW TIER...WHERE THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD COLD AS
SHOWN IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. THIS TRANSITION HAS ALSO
CAUSED MIXING TO INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES ITS
PENETRATION SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NE WINDS
APPROACHING LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE MOULTRIE...WHERE
WE HAVE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

FOR THE BULK OF TODAY...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FRESHER CANADIAN AIR
MASS THERE ISN/T MUCH MODIFICATION THAT IS ABLE TO OCCUR. ALTHOUGH
COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL SHUT OFF AND BECOME NEUTRAL OR
EVEN SHOW SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE FULL
INSOLATION UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE HIGH AS IT SLIDES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR A LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS...SOME
20-30F...LEADING TO MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ONSHORE
TRAJECTORIES WILL HOLD SHORELINE COMMUNITIES SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE INLAND.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH IS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...AND THE GRADIENT IS RATHER NEBULOUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DECOUPLING AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL TRANSPIRE...CAUSING TEMPS TO PLUMMET QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE/LL EXPERIENCE A
GOOD 5-8 HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING NORTH AND UP TO 8-10 HOURS
SOUTH. WHILE IT WON/T BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING...MANY SECTIONS
INLAND WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS COMBINED WITH SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED FROST
ACROSS MUCH THE REGION INLAND FROM US-17. AS SUCH WE/LL MOST
LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.
FOR LATE TONIGHT OUR TEMPS WILL STEADY OFF OR EVEN RISE AS THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SW AND WARM ADVECTION
TAKES HOLD AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES
EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM
THE WEST/NW LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
NEARING THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A PREFRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE...MAINLY SUPPORTED BY AN 850
MB WESTERLY JET AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WILL
TRANSLATE QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTH/ SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FORCING SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...AND THE AXIS
OF ENHANCED 850-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BECOME LESS WELL-
DEFINED WITH TIME. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING TRENDS EVIDENT IN
FORCING/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELDS...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 30-40
PERCENT LATE MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ADJUSTED
TIMING OF TO FAVOR A FASTER TREND FAVORED BY ALL OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE 29/00 UTC NAM. ALSO OF NOTE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD EAST ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THUS A MENTION OF THUNDER REMAINS JUSTIFIED
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
FAR NORTH TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION REMAIN LESS PROMINENT THAN EXPECTED...INCREASING W/SW
WINDS COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS A WIDER SWATH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED/WEAKENING BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE THE 29/00 UTC NAM IS
LIKELY OVERDONE DEPICTING A RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL JUSTIFIED IN THIS AREA MONDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH TAPER TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S WILL BE COMMON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND
FRONT WILL ALSO STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR PERHAPS JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO RIDE THE WEST/NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO MAINTAIN
RAIN-FREE FORECASTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INCLUDING A MENTION OF THUNDER ARE WARRANTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE NOT HIGH...AS PRECIPITATION COULD EITHER
STREAM MORE QUICKLY INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT OR
COULD BE HELD MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON BOTH DAYS...AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS MORNING...A SOLID NORTH/NE SURGE OF WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
MARINE DISTRICT IN RESPONSE TO A 1030 MB HIGH BUILDING OUT OF THE
VIRGINIAS. THE ENSUING COLD ADVECTION AND ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE
RISES OF CLOSE TO 1 MB/HOUR THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WILL BUMP
WINDS UP TO 15 OR 20 KT EVERYWHERE. BUT THE GRADIENT WILL BE
GREATEST ON THE CHARLESTON COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS...AND IT IS HERE
WHERE WE HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MIDDAY FOR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 KT. THE OTHER WATERS WILL BE CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CONDITIONS...BUT AT PRESENT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW THE CRITERIA.

THIS AFTERNOON...RAPID IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD
ADVECTION HALTS...PRESSURE RISES STOP AND THE CORE OF THE
CONTINENTAL HIGH SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL CLOCK
AROUND TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS AS SEAS ALSO FALL.

TONIGHT...WE/LL START THE NIGHT UNDERNEATH THE OFFSHORE
TRANSITIONING HIGH...RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE WIND AND LIMITED
SEAS. BUT THE HIGH DOES SLIDE SE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THIS ALONG WITH A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AFTER 06Z WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTH/SW WINDS TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS 10 OR 15 KT AS SEAS
RISE MAYBE A FOOT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SURGE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STABLE
MARINE ENVIRONMENT...HELD WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A MODEST SURGE OF NORTHEAST
WINDS...BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY SCA CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY
LOW. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO STALL
AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK...BUT ONCE AGAIN
MARINE LAYER STABILITY COULD PREVENT SCA WINDS/SEAS.

ALSO OF NOTE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG OVER
NEAR SHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY UNTIL A COLD FROPA OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS MARCH 29TH...
KCHS...32 SET IN 1969.
KSAV...33 SET IN 1955.
KCXM...37 SET IN 1982.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291116
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
716 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY...THEN SHIFTS INTO THE
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS CONTINUED ITS
STEADY TREK SOUTHWARD AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS A LARGE AND COLD ARCTIC HIGH THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR ABOUT
1-3 HOURS ALONG OUR NW TIER...WHERE THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD COLD AS
SHOWN IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. THIS TRANSITION HAS ALSO
CAUSED MIXING TO INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES ITS
PENETRATION SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NE WINDS
APPROACHING LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE MOULTRIE...WHERE
WE HAVE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

FOR THE BULK OF TODAY...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FRESHER CANADIAN AIR
MASS THERE ISN/T MUCH MODIFICATION THAT IS ABLE TO OCCUR. ALTHOUGH
COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL SHUT OFF AND BECOME NEUTRAL OR
EVEN SHOW SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE FULL
INSOLATION UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE HIGH AS IT SLIDES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR A LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS...SOME
20-30F...LEADING TO MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ONSHORE
TRAJECTORIES WILL HOLD SHORELINE COMMUNITIES SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE INLAND.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH IS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...AND THE GRADIENT IS RATHER NEBULOUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DECOUPLING AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL TRANSPIRE...CAUSING TEMPS TO PLUMMET QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE/LL EXPERIENCE A
GOOD 5-8 HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING NORTH AND UP TO 8-10 HOURS
SOUTH. WHILE IT WON/T BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING...MANY SECTIONS
INLAND WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS COMBINED WITH SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED FROST
ACROSS MUCH THE REGION INLAND FROM US-17. AS SUCH WE/LL MOST
LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.
FOR LATE TONIGHT OUR TEMPS WILL STEADY OFF OR EVEN RISE AS THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SW AND WARM ADVECTION
TAKES HOLD AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES
EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM
THE WEST/NW LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
NEARING THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A PREFRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE...MAINLY SUPPORTED BY AN 850
MB WESTERLY JET AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WILL
TRANSLATE QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTH/ SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FORCING SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...AND THE AXIS
OF ENHANCED 850-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BECOME LESS WELL-
DEFINED WITH TIME. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING TRENDS EVIDENT IN
FORCING/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELDS...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 30-40
PERCENT LATE MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ADJUSTED
TIMING OF TO FAVOR A FASTER TREND FAVORED BY ALL OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE 29/00 UTC NAM. ALSO OF NOTE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD EAST ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THUS A MENTION OF THUNDER REMAINS JUSTIFIED
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
FAR NORTH TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION REMAIN LESS PROMINENT THAN EXPECTED...INCREASING W/SW
WINDS COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS A WIDER SWATH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED/WEAKENING BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE THE 29/00 UTC NAM IS
LIKELY OVERDONE DEPICTING A RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL JUSTIFIED IN THIS AREA MONDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH TAPER TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S WILL BE COMMON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND
FRONT WILL ALSO STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR PERHAPS JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO RIDE THE WEST/NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO MAINTAIN
RAIN-FREE FORECASTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INCLUDING A MENTION OF THUNDER ARE WARRANTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE NOT HIGH...AS PRECIPITATION COULD EITHER
STREAM MORE QUICKLY INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT OR
COULD BE HELD MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON BOTH DAYS...AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS MORNING...A SOLID NORTH/NE SURGE OF WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
MARINE DISTRICT IN RESPONSE TO A 1030 MB HIGH BUILDING OUT OF THE
VIRGINIAS. THE ENSUING COLD ADVECTION AND ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE
RISES OF CLOSE TO 1 MB/HOUR THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WILL BUMP
WINDS UP TO 15 OR 20 KT EVERYWHERE. BUT THE GRADIENT WILL BE
GREATEST ON THE CHARLESTON COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS...AND IT IS HERE
WHERE WE HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MIDDAY FOR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 KT. THE OTHER WATERS WILL BE CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CONDITIONS...BUT AT PRESENT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW THE CRITERIA.

THIS AFTERNOON...RAPID IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD
ADVECTION HALTS...PRESSURE RISES STOP AND THE CORE OF THE
CONTINENTAL HIGH SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL CLOCK
AROUND TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS AS SEAS ALSO FALL.

TONIGHT...WE/LL START THE NIGHT UNDERNEATH THE OFFSHORE
TRANSITIONING HIGH...RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE WIND AND LIMITED
SEAS. BUT THE HIGH DOES SLIDE SE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THIS ALONG WITH A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AFTER 06Z WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTH/SW WINDS TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS 10 OR 15 KT AS SEAS
RISE MAYBE A FOOT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SURGE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STABLE
MARINE ENVIRONMENT...HELD WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A MODEST SURGE OF NORTHEAST
WINDS...BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY SCA CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY
LOW. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO STALL
AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK...BUT ONCE AGAIN
MARINE LAYER STABILITY COULD PREVENT SCA WINDS/SEAS.

ALSO OF NOTE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG OVER
NEAR SHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY UNTIL A COLD FROPA OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS MARCH 29TH...
KCHS...32 SET IN 1969.
KSAV...33 SET IN 1955.
KCXM...37 SET IN 1982.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291116
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
716 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY...THEN SHIFTS INTO THE
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS CONTINUED ITS
STEADY TREK SOUTHWARD AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS A LARGE AND COLD ARCTIC HIGH THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR ABOUT
1-3 HOURS ALONG OUR NW TIER...WHERE THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD COLD AS
SHOWN IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. THIS TRANSITION HAS ALSO
CAUSED MIXING TO INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES ITS
PENETRATION SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NE WINDS
APPROACHING LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE MOULTRIE...WHERE
WE HAVE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

FOR THE BULK OF TODAY...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FRESHER CANADIAN AIR
MASS THERE ISN/T MUCH MODIFICATION THAT IS ABLE TO OCCUR. ALTHOUGH
COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL SHUT OFF AND BECOME NEUTRAL OR
EVEN SHOW SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE FULL
INSOLATION UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE HIGH AS IT SLIDES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR A LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS...SOME
20-30F...LEADING TO MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ONSHORE
TRAJECTORIES WILL HOLD SHORELINE COMMUNITIES SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE INLAND.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH IS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...AND THE GRADIENT IS RATHER NEBULOUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DECOUPLING AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL TRANSPIRE...CAUSING TEMPS TO PLUMMET QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE/LL EXPERIENCE A
GOOD 5-8 HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING NORTH AND UP TO 8-10 HOURS
SOUTH. WHILE IT WON/T BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING...MANY SECTIONS
INLAND WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS COMBINED WITH SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED FROST
ACROSS MUCH THE REGION INLAND FROM US-17. AS SUCH WE/LL MOST
LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.
FOR LATE TONIGHT OUR TEMPS WILL STEADY OFF OR EVEN RISE AS THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SW AND WARM ADVECTION
TAKES HOLD AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES
EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM
THE WEST/NW LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
NEARING THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A PREFRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE...MAINLY SUPPORTED BY AN 850
MB WESTERLY JET AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WILL
TRANSLATE QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTH/ SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FORCING SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...AND THE AXIS
OF ENHANCED 850-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BECOME LESS WELL-
DEFINED WITH TIME. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING TRENDS EVIDENT IN
FORCING/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELDS...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 30-40
PERCENT LATE MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ADJUSTED
TIMING OF TO FAVOR A FASTER TREND FAVORED BY ALL OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE 29/00 UTC NAM. ALSO OF NOTE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD EAST ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THUS A MENTION OF THUNDER REMAINS JUSTIFIED
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
FAR NORTH TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION REMAIN LESS PROMINENT THAN EXPECTED...INCREASING W/SW
WINDS COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS A WIDER SWATH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED/WEAKENING BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE THE 29/00 UTC NAM IS
LIKELY OVERDONE DEPICTING A RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL JUSTIFIED IN THIS AREA MONDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH TAPER TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S WILL BE COMMON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND
FRONT WILL ALSO STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR PERHAPS JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO RIDE THE WEST/NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO MAINTAIN
RAIN-FREE FORECASTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INCLUDING A MENTION OF THUNDER ARE WARRANTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE NOT HIGH...AS PRECIPITATION COULD EITHER
STREAM MORE QUICKLY INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT OR
COULD BE HELD MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON BOTH DAYS...AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS MORNING...A SOLID NORTH/NE SURGE OF WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
MARINE DISTRICT IN RESPONSE TO A 1030 MB HIGH BUILDING OUT OF THE
VIRGINIAS. THE ENSUING COLD ADVECTION AND ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE
RISES OF CLOSE TO 1 MB/HOUR THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WILL BUMP
WINDS UP TO 15 OR 20 KT EVERYWHERE. BUT THE GRADIENT WILL BE
GREATEST ON THE CHARLESTON COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS...AND IT IS HERE
WHERE WE HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MIDDAY FOR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 KT. THE OTHER WATERS WILL BE CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CONDITIONS...BUT AT PRESENT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW THE CRITERIA.

THIS AFTERNOON...RAPID IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD
ADVECTION HALTS...PRESSURE RISES STOP AND THE CORE OF THE
CONTINENTAL HIGH SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL CLOCK
AROUND TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS AS SEAS ALSO FALL.

TONIGHT...WE/LL START THE NIGHT UNDERNEATH THE OFFSHORE
TRANSITIONING HIGH...RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE WIND AND LIMITED
SEAS. BUT THE HIGH DOES SLIDE SE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THIS ALONG WITH A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AFTER 06Z WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTH/SW WINDS TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS 10 OR 15 KT AS SEAS
RISE MAYBE A FOOT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SURGE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STABLE
MARINE ENVIRONMENT...HELD WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A MODEST SURGE OF NORTHEAST
WINDS...BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY SCA CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY
LOW. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO STALL
AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK...BUT ONCE AGAIN
MARINE LAYER STABILITY COULD PREVENT SCA WINDS/SEAS.

ALSO OF NOTE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG OVER
NEAR SHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY UNTIL A COLD FROPA OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS MARCH 29TH...
KCHS...32 SET IN 1969.
KSAV...33 SET IN 1955.
KCXM...37 SET IN 1982.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291039
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
639 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY...THEN SHIFTS INTO THE
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS CONTINUED ITS
STEADY TREK SOUTHWARD AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS A LARGE AND COLD ARCTIC HIGH THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR ABOUT
1-3 HOURS ALONG OUR NW TIER...WHERE THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD COLD AS
SHOWN IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. THIS TRANSITION HAS ALSO
CAUSED MIXING TO INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES ITS
PENETRATION SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NE WINDS
APPROACHING LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE MOULTRIE...WHERE
WE HAVE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

FOR THE BULK OF TODAY...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FRESHER CANADIAN AIR
MASS THERE ISN/T MUCH MODIFICATION THAT IS ABLE TO OCCUR. ALTHOUGH
COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL SHUT OFF AND BECOME NEUTRAL OR
EVEN SHOW SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE FULL
INSOLATION UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE HIGH AS IT SLIDES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR A LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS...SOME
20-30F...LEADING TO MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ONSHORE
TRAJECTORIES WILL HOLD SHORELINE COMMUNITIES SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE INLAND.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH IS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...AND THE GRADIENT IS RATHER NEBULOUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DECOUPLING AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL TRANSPIRE...CAUSING TEMPS TO PLUMMET QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE/LL EXPERIENCE A
GOOD 5-8 HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING NORTH AND UP TO 8-10 HOURS
SOUTH. WHILE IT WON/T BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING...MANY SECTIONS
INLAND WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS COMBINED WITH SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED FROST
ACROSS MUCH THE REGION INLAND FROM US-17. AS SUCH WE/LL MOST
LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.
FOR LATE TONIGHT OUR TEMPS WILL STEADY OFF OR EVEN RISE AS THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SW AND WARM ADVECTION
TAKES HOLD AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES
EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM
THE WEST/NW LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
NEARING THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A PREFRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE...MAINLY SUPPORTED BY AN 850
MB WESTERLY JET AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WILL
TRANSLATE QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTH/ SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FORCING SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...AND THE AXIS
OF ENHANCED 850-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BECOME LESS WELL-
DEFINED WITH TIME. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING TRENDS EVIDENT IN
FORCING/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELDS...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 30-40
PERCENT LATE MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ADJUSTED
TIMING OF TO FAVOR A FASTER TREND FAVORED BY ALL OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE 29/00 UTC NAM. ALSO OF NOTE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD EAST ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THUS A MENTION OF THUNDER REMAINS JUSTIFIED
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
FAR NORTH TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION REMAIN LESS PROMINENT THAN EXPECTED...INCREASING W/SW
WINDS COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS A WIDER SWATH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED/WEAKENING BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE THE 29/00 UTC NAM IS
LIKELY OVERDONE DEPICTING A RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL JUSTIFIED IN THIS AREA MONDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH TAPER TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S WILL BE COMMON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND
FRONT WILL ALSO STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR PERHAPS JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO RIDE THE WEST/NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO MAINTAIN
RAIN-FREE FORECASTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INCLUDING A MENTION OF THUNDER ARE WARRANTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE NOT HIGH...AS PRECIPITATION COULD EITHER
STREAM MORE QUICKLY INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT OR
COULD BE HELD MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON BOTH DAYS...AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. FOR THE SAKE OF
SIMPLICITY WE HAVE SHOWN MORE OF AVERAGE WINDS IN THE 06Z
TAFS...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS THIS MORNING AND WINDS
TONIGHT WILL ACTUALLY GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN CALM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS MORNING...A SOLID NORTH/NE SURGE OF WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
MARINE DISTRICT IN RESPONSE TO A 1030 MB HIGH BUILDING OUT OF THE
VIRGINIAS. THE ENSUING COLD ADVECTION AND ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE
RISES OF CLOSE TO 1 MB/HOUR THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WILL BUMP
WINDS UP TO 15 OR 20 KT EVERYWHERE. BUT THE GRADIENT WILL BE
GREATEST ON THE CHARLESTON COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS...AND IT IS HERE
WHERE WE HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MIDDAY FOR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 KT. THE OTHER WATERS WILL BE CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CONDITIONS...BUT AT PRESENT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW THE CRITERIA.

THIS AFTERNOON...RAPID IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD
ADVECTION HALTS...PRESSURE RISES STOP AND THE CORE OF THE
CONTINENTAL HIGH SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL CLOCK
AROUND TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS AS SEAS ALSO FALL.

TONIGHT...WE/LL START THE NIGHT UNDERNEATH THE OFFSHORE
TRANSITIONING HIGH...RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE WIND AND LIMITED
SEAS. BUT THE HIGH DOES SLIDE SE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THIS ALONG WITH A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AFTER 06Z WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTH/SW WINDS TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS 10 OR 15 KT AS SEAS
RISE MAYBE A FOOT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SURGE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STABLE
MARINE ENVIRONMENT...HELD WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A MODEST SURGE OF NORTHEAST
WINDS...BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY SCA CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY
LOW. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO STALL
AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK...BUT ONCE AGAIN
MARINE LAYER STABILITY COULD PREVENT SCA WINDS/SEAS.

ALSO OF NOTE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG OVER
NEAR SHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY UNTIL A COLD FROPA OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS MARCH 29TH...
KCHS...32 SET IN 1969.
KSAV...33 SET IN 1955.
KCXM...37 SET IN 1982.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291039
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
639 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY...THEN SHIFTS INTO THE
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS CONTINUED ITS
STEADY TREK SOUTHWARD AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS A LARGE AND COLD ARCTIC HIGH THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR ABOUT
1-3 HOURS ALONG OUR NW TIER...WHERE THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD COLD AS
SHOWN IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. THIS TRANSITION HAS ALSO
CAUSED MIXING TO INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES ITS
PENETRATION SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NE WINDS
APPROACHING LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE MOULTRIE...WHERE
WE HAVE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

FOR THE BULK OF TODAY...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FRESHER CANADIAN AIR
MASS THERE ISN/T MUCH MODIFICATION THAT IS ABLE TO OCCUR. ALTHOUGH
COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL SHUT OFF AND BECOME NEUTRAL OR
EVEN SHOW SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE FULL
INSOLATION UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE HIGH AS IT SLIDES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR A LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS...SOME
20-30F...LEADING TO MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ONSHORE
TRAJECTORIES WILL HOLD SHORELINE COMMUNITIES SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE INLAND.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH IS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...AND THE GRADIENT IS RATHER NEBULOUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DECOUPLING AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL TRANSPIRE...CAUSING TEMPS TO PLUMMET QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE/LL EXPERIENCE A
GOOD 5-8 HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING NORTH AND UP TO 8-10 HOURS
SOUTH. WHILE IT WON/T BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING...MANY SECTIONS
INLAND WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS COMBINED WITH SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED FROST
ACROSS MUCH THE REGION INLAND FROM US-17. AS SUCH WE/LL MOST
LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.
FOR LATE TONIGHT OUR TEMPS WILL STEADY OFF OR EVEN RISE AS THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SW AND WARM ADVECTION
TAKES HOLD AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES
EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM
THE WEST/NW LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
NEARING THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A PREFRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE...MAINLY SUPPORTED BY AN 850
MB WESTERLY JET AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WILL
TRANSLATE QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTH/ SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FORCING SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...AND THE AXIS
OF ENHANCED 850-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BECOME LESS WELL-
DEFINED WITH TIME. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING TRENDS EVIDENT IN
FORCING/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELDS...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 30-40
PERCENT LATE MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ADJUSTED
TIMING OF TO FAVOR A FASTER TREND FAVORED BY ALL OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE 29/00 UTC NAM. ALSO OF NOTE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD EAST ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THUS A MENTION OF THUNDER REMAINS JUSTIFIED
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
FAR NORTH TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION REMAIN LESS PROMINENT THAN EXPECTED...INCREASING W/SW
WINDS COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS A WIDER SWATH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED/WEAKENING BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE THE 29/00 UTC NAM IS
LIKELY OVERDONE DEPICTING A RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL JUSTIFIED IN THIS AREA MONDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH TAPER TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S WILL BE COMMON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND
FRONT WILL ALSO STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR PERHAPS JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO RIDE THE WEST/NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO MAINTAIN
RAIN-FREE FORECASTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INCLUDING A MENTION OF THUNDER ARE WARRANTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE NOT HIGH...AS PRECIPITATION COULD EITHER
STREAM MORE QUICKLY INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT OR
COULD BE HELD MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON BOTH DAYS...AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. FOR THE SAKE OF
SIMPLICITY WE HAVE SHOWN MORE OF AVERAGE WINDS IN THE 06Z
TAFS...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS THIS MORNING AND WINDS
TONIGHT WILL ACTUALLY GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN CALM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS MORNING...A SOLID NORTH/NE SURGE OF WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
MARINE DISTRICT IN RESPONSE TO A 1030 MB HIGH BUILDING OUT OF THE
VIRGINIAS. THE ENSUING COLD ADVECTION AND ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE
RISES OF CLOSE TO 1 MB/HOUR THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WILL BUMP
WINDS UP TO 15 OR 20 KT EVERYWHERE. BUT THE GRADIENT WILL BE
GREATEST ON THE CHARLESTON COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS...AND IT IS HERE
WHERE WE HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MIDDAY FOR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 KT. THE OTHER WATERS WILL BE CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CONDITIONS...BUT AT PRESENT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW THE CRITERIA.

THIS AFTERNOON...RAPID IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD
ADVECTION HALTS...PRESSURE RISES STOP AND THE CORE OF THE
CONTINENTAL HIGH SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL CLOCK
AROUND TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS AS SEAS ALSO FALL.

TONIGHT...WE/LL START THE NIGHT UNDERNEATH THE OFFSHORE
TRANSITIONING HIGH...RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE WIND AND LIMITED
SEAS. BUT THE HIGH DOES SLIDE SE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THIS ALONG WITH A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AFTER 06Z WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTH/SW WINDS TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS 10 OR 15 KT AS SEAS
RISE MAYBE A FOOT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SURGE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STABLE
MARINE ENVIRONMENT...HELD WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A MODEST SURGE OF NORTHEAST
WINDS...BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY SCA CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY
LOW. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO STALL
AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK...BUT ONCE AGAIN
MARINE LAYER STABILITY COULD PREVENT SCA WINDS/SEAS.

ALSO OF NOTE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG OVER
NEAR SHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY UNTIL A COLD FROPA OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS MARCH 29TH...
KCHS...32 SET IN 1969.
KSAV...33 SET IN 1955.
KCXM...37 SET IN 1982.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291039
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
639 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY...THEN SHIFTS INTO THE
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS CONTINUED ITS
STEADY TREK SOUTHWARD AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS A LARGE AND COLD ARCTIC HIGH THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR ABOUT
1-3 HOURS ALONG OUR NW TIER...WHERE THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD COLD AS
SHOWN IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. THIS TRANSITION HAS ALSO
CAUSED MIXING TO INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES ITS
PENETRATION SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NE WINDS
APPROACHING LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE MOULTRIE...WHERE
WE HAVE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

FOR THE BULK OF TODAY...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FRESHER CANADIAN AIR
MASS THERE ISN/T MUCH MODIFICATION THAT IS ABLE TO OCCUR. ALTHOUGH
COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL SHUT OFF AND BECOME NEUTRAL OR
EVEN SHOW SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE FULL
INSOLATION UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE HIGH AS IT SLIDES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR A LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS...SOME
20-30F...LEADING TO MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ONSHORE
TRAJECTORIES WILL HOLD SHORELINE COMMUNITIES SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE INLAND.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH IS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...AND THE GRADIENT IS RATHER NEBULOUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DECOUPLING AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL TRANSPIRE...CAUSING TEMPS TO PLUMMET QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE/LL EXPERIENCE A
GOOD 5-8 HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING NORTH AND UP TO 8-10 HOURS
SOUTH. WHILE IT WON/T BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING...MANY SECTIONS
INLAND WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS COMBINED WITH SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED FROST
ACROSS MUCH THE REGION INLAND FROM US-17. AS SUCH WE/LL MOST
LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.
FOR LATE TONIGHT OUR TEMPS WILL STEADY OFF OR EVEN RISE AS THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SW AND WARM ADVECTION
TAKES HOLD AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES
EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM
THE WEST/NW LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
NEARING THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A PREFRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE...MAINLY SUPPORTED BY AN 850
MB WESTERLY JET AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WILL
TRANSLATE QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTH/ SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FORCING SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...AND THE AXIS
OF ENHANCED 850-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BECOME LESS WELL-
DEFINED WITH TIME. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING TRENDS EVIDENT IN
FORCING/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELDS...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 30-40
PERCENT LATE MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ADJUSTED
TIMING OF TO FAVOR A FASTER TREND FAVORED BY ALL OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE 29/00 UTC NAM. ALSO OF NOTE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD EAST ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THUS A MENTION OF THUNDER REMAINS JUSTIFIED
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
FAR NORTH TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION REMAIN LESS PROMINENT THAN EXPECTED...INCREASING W/SW
WINDS COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS A WIDER SWATH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED/WEAKENING BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE THE 29/00 UTC NAM IS
LIKELY OVERDONE DEPICTING A RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL JUSTIFIED IN THIS AREA MONDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH TAPER TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S WILL BE COMMON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND
FRONT WILL ALSO STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR PERHAPS JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO RIDE THE WEST/NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO MAINTAIN
RAIN-FREE FORECASTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INCLUDING A MENTION OF THUNDER ARE WARRANTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE NOT HIGH...AS PRECIPITATION COULD EITHER
STREAM MORE QUICKLY INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT OR
COULD BE HELD MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON BOTH DAYS...AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. FOR THE SAKE OF
SIMPLICITY WE HAVE SHOWN MORE OF AVERAGE WINDS IN THE 06Z
TAFS...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS THIS MORNING AND WINDS
TONIGHT WILL ACTUALLY GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN CALM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS MORNING...A SOLID NORTH/NE SURGE OF WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
MARINE DISTRICT IN RESPONSE TO A 1030 MB HIGH BUILDING OUT OF THE
VIRGINIAS. THE ENSUING COLD ADVECTION AND ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE
RISES OF CLOSE TO 1 MB/HOUR THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WILL BUMP
WINDS UP TO 15 OR 20 KT EVERYWHERE. BUT THE GRADIENT WILL BE
GREATEST ON THE CHARLESTON COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS...AND IT IS HERE
WHERE WE HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MIDDAY FOR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 KT. THE OTHER WATERS WILL BE CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CONDITIONS...BUT AT PRESENT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW THE CRITERIA.

THIS AFTERNOON...RAPID IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD
ADVECTION HALTS...PRESSURE RISES STOP AND THE CORE OF THE
CONTINENTAL HIGH SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL CLOCK
AROUND TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS AS SEAS ALSO FALL.

TONIGHT...WE/LL START THE NIGHT UNDERNEATH THE OFFSHORE
TRANSITIONING HIGH...RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE WIND AND LIMITED
SEAS. BUT THE HIGH DOES SLIDE SE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THIS ALONG WITH A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AFTER 06Z WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTH/SW WINDS TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS 10 OR 15 KT AS SEAS
RISE MAYBE A FOOT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SURGE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STABLE
MARINE ENVIRONMENT...HELD WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A MODEST SURGE OF NORTHEAST
WINDS...BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY SCA CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY
LOW. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO STALL
AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK...BUT ONCE AGAIN
MARINE LAYER STABILITY COULD PREVENT SCA WINDS/SEAS.

ALSO OF NOTE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG OVER
NEAR SHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY UNTIL A COLD FROPA OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS MARCH 29TH...
KCHS...32 SET IN 1969.
KSAV...33 SET IN 1955.
KCXM...37 SET IN 1982.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291039
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
639 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY...THEN SHIFTS INTO THE
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS CONTINUED ITS
STEADY TREK SOUTHWARD AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS A LARGE AND COLD ARCTIC HIGH THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR ABOUT
1-3 HOURS ALONG OUR NW TIER...WHERE THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD COLD AS
SHOWN IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. THIS TRANSITION HAS ALSO
CAUSED MIXING TO INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES ITS
PENETRATION SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NE WINDS
APPROACHING LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE MOULTRIE...WHERE
WE HAVE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

FOR THE BULK OF TODAY...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FRESHER CANADIAN AIR
MASS THERE ISN/T MUCH MODIFICATION THAT IS ABLE TO OCCUR. ALTHOUGH
COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL SHUT OFF AND BECOME NEUTRAL OR
EVEN SHOW SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE FULL
INSOLATION UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE HIGH AS IT SLIDES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR A LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS...SOME
20-30F...LEADING TO MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ONSHORE
TRAJECTORIES WILL HOLD SHORELINE COMMUNITIES SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE INLAND.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH IS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...AND THE GRADIENT IS RATHER NEBULOUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DECOUPLING AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL TRANSPIRE...CAUSING TEMPS TO PLUMMET QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE/LL EXPERIENCE A
GOOD 5-8 HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING NORTH AND UP TO 8-10 HOURS
SOUTH. WHILE IT WON/T BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING...MANY SECTIONS
INLAND WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS COMBINED WITH SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED FROST
ACROSS MUCH THE REGION INLAND FROM US-17. AS SUCH WE/LL MOST
LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.
FOR LATE TONIGHT OUR TEMPS WILL STEADY OFF OR EVEN RISE AS THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SW AND WARM ADVECTION
TAKES HOLD AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES
EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM
THE WEST/NW LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
NEARING THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A PREFRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE...MAINLY SUPPORTED BY AN 850
MB WESTERLY JET AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WILL
TRANSLATE QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTH/ SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FORCING SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...AND THE AXIS
OF ENHANCED 850-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BECOME LESS WELL-
DEFINED WITH TIME. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING TRENDS EVIDENT IN
FORCING/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELDS...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 30-40
PERCENT LATE MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ADJUSTED
TIMING OF TO FAVOR A FASTER TREND FAVORED BY ALL OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE 29/00 UTC NAM. ALSO OF NOTE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD EAST ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THUS A MENTION OF THUNDER REMAINS JUSTIFIED
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
FAR NORTH TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION REMAIN LESS PROMINENT THAN EXPECTED...INCREASING W/SW
WINDS COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS A WIDER SWATH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED/WEAKENING BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE THE 29/00 UTC NAM IS
LIKELY OVERDONE DEPICTING A RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL JUSTIFIED IN THIS AREA MONDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH TAPER TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S WILL BE COMMON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND
FRONT WILL ALSO STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR PERHAPS JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO RIDE THE WEST/NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO MAINTAIN
RAIN-FREE FORECASTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INCLUDING A MENTION OF THUNDER ARE WARRANTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE NOT HIGH...AS PRECIPITATION COULD EITHER
STREAM MORE QUICKLY INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT OR
COULD BE HELD MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON BOTH DAYS...AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. FOR THE SAKE OF
SIMPLICITY WE HAVE SHOWN MORE OF AVERAGE WINDS IN THE 06Z
TAFS...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS THIS MORNING AND WINDS
TONIGHT WILL ACTUALLY GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN CALM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS MORNING...A SOLID NORTH/NE SURGE OF WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
MARINE DISTRICT IN RESPONSE TO A 1030 MB HIGH BUILDING OUT OF THE
VIRGINIAS. THE ENSUING COLD ADVECTION AND ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE
RISES OF CLOSE TO 1 MB/HOUR THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WILL BUMP
WINDS UP TO 15 OR 20 KT EVERYWHERE. BUT THE GRADIENT WILL BE
GREATEST ON THE CHARLESTON COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS...AND IT IS HERE
WHERE WE HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MIDDAY FOR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 KT. THE OTHER WATERS WILL BE CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CONDITIONS...BUT AT PRESENT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW THE CRITERIA.

THIS AFTERNOON...RAPID IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD
ADVECTION HALTS...PRESSURE RISES STOP AND THE CORE OF THE
CONTINENTAL HIGH SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL CLOCK
AROUND TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS AS SEAS ALSO FALL.

TONIGHT...WE/LL START THE NIGHT UNDERNEATH THE OFFSHORE
TRANSITIONING HIGH...RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE WIND AND LIMITED
SEAS. BUT THE HIGH DOES SLIDE SE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THIS ALONG WITH A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AFTER 06Z WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTH/SW WINDS TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS 10 OR 15 KT AS SEAS
RISE MAYBE A FOOT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SURGE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STABLE
MARINE ENVIRONMENT...HELD WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A MODEST SURGE OF NORTHEAST
WINDS...BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY SCA CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY
LOW. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO STALL
AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK...BUT ONCE AGAIN
MARINE LAYER STABILITY COULD PREVENT SCA WINDS/SEAS.

ALSO OF NOTE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG OVER
NEAR SHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY UNTIL A COLD FROPA OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS MARCH 29TH...
KCHS...32 SET IN 1969.
KSAV...33 SET IN 1955.
KCXM...37 SET IN 1982.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCAE 290933
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
533 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL RESIDING OVER
THE REGION TODAY. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. LOW-LEVEL
JET AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS...AND ABOVE FREEZING ELSEWHERE. FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 2 AM UNTIL 10 AM THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE AREA BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 290933
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
533 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL RESIDING OVER
THE REGION TODAY. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. LOW-LEVEL
JET AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS...AND ABOVE FREEZING ELSEWHERE. FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 2 AM UNTIL 10 AM THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE AREA BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 290811
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES AREA
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWFA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF GA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP THAN THE NAM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DIMINISHING THE PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS THE BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES SHUNT TO THE NORTH.

MODELS ARE ALSO TRYING TO BRING A LITTLE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT STILL THINK THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE. SO...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&


.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY WITH
CIGS AROUND 050 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS MAY DIP TO
MVFR VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONT APPROACHES. THE
FRONT WILL BRING PRECIP...BUT IT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MID
MORNING. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NE/E BY LATE MORNING TODAY AND
THEN SOUTH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  44  68  43 /   0  40  50   0
ATLANTA         59  47  67  46 /   0  40  50   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  42  61  37 /   0  60  70   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  46  68  42 /   0  50  70   0
COLUMBUS        63  48  72  50 /   0  30  50  20
GAINESVILLE     57  45  65  43 /   0  40  50   0
MACON           61  45  70  46 /   0  20  50  20
ROME            60  47  68  41 /   0  60  70   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  46  68  43 /   0  40  50  10
VIDALIA         62  45  72  50 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BUTTS...
CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...
COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...
MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...
PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TROUP...
TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA



000
FXUS62 KFFC 290811
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES AREA
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWFA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF GA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP THAN THE NAM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DIMINISHING THE PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS THE BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES SHUNT TO THE NORTH.

MODELS ARE ALSO TRYING TO BRING A LITTLE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT STILL THINK THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE. SO...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&


.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY WITH
CIGS AROUND 050 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS MAY DIP TO
MVFR VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONT APPROACHES. THE
FRONT WILL BRING PRECIP...BUT IT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MID
MORNING. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NE/E BY LATE MORNING TODAY AND
THEN SOUTH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  44  68  43 /   0  40  50   0
ATLANTA         59  47  67  46 /   0  40  50   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  42  61  37 /   0  60  70   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  46  68  42 /   0  50  70   0
COLUMBUS        63  48  72  50 /   0  30  50  20
GAINESVILLE     57  45  65  43 /   0  40  50   0
MACON           61  45  70  46 /   0  20  50  20
ROME            60  47  68  41 /   0  60  70   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  46  68  43 /   0  40  50  10
VIDALIA         62  45  72  50 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BUTTS...
CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...
COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...
MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...
PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TROUP...
TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290802
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
402 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY...THEN SHIFTS INTO THE
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE DEW POINT FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD AND CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE IS A LARGE AND COLD ARCTIC HIGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO FEED
AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR 2-4 HOURS ALONG OUR NW
TIER...WHERE THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD COLD AS SHOWN IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
THIS TRANSITION HAS ALSO CAUSED MIXING TO INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR
CONTINUES ITS PENETRATION SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NE
WINDS APPROACHING LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE
MOULTRIE...WHERE WE HAVE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

FOR THE BULK OF TODAY...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FRESHER CANADIAN AIR
MASS THERE ISN/T MUCH MODIFICATION THAT IS ABLE TO OCCUR. ALTHOUGH
COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL SHUT OFF AND BECOME NEUTRAL OR
EVEN SHOW SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE FULL
INSOLATION UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE HIGH AS IT SLIDES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR A LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS...SOME
20-30F...LEADING TO MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ONSHORE
TRAJECTORIES WILL HOLD SHORELINE COMMUNITIES SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE INLAND.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH IS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...AND THE GRADIENT IS RATHER NEBULOUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DECOUPLING AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL TRANSPIRE...CAUSING TEMPS TO PLUMMET QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE/LL EXPERIENCE A
GOOD 5-8 HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING NORTH AND UP TO 8-10 HOURS
SOUTH. WHILE IT WON/T BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING...MANY SECTIONS
INLAND WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS COMBINED WITH SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED FROST
ACROSS MUCH THE REGION INLAND FROM US-17. AS SUCH WE/LL MOST
LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.
FOR LATE TONIGHT OUR TEMPS WILL STEADY OFF OR EVEN RISE AS THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SW AND WARM ADVECTION
TAKES HOLD AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES
EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM
THE WEST/NW LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
NEARING THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A PREFRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE...MAINLY SUPPORTED BY AN 850
MB WESTERLY JET AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WILL
TRANSLATE QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTH/ SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FORCING SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...AND THE AXIS
OF ENHANCED 850-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BECOME LESS WELL-
DEFINED WITH TIME. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING TRENDS EVIDENT IN
FORCING/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELDS...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 30-40
PERCENT LATE MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ADJUSTED
TIMING OF TO FAVOR A FASTER TREND FAVORED BY ALL OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE 29/00 UTC NAM. ALSO OF NOTE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD EAST ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THUS A MENTION OF THUNDER REMAINS JUSTIFIED
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
FAR NORTH TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION REMAIN LESS PROMINENT THAN EXPECTED...INCREASING W/SW
WINDS COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS A WIDER SWATH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED/WEAKENING BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE THE 29/00 UTC NAM IS
LIKELY OVERDONE DEPICTING A RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL JUSTIFIED IN THIS AREA MONDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH TAPER TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S WILL BE COMMON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND
FRONT WILL ALSO STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR PERHAPS JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO RIDE THE WEST/NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO MAINTAIN
RAIN-FREE FORECASTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INCLUDING A MENTION OF THUNDER ARE WARRANTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE NOT HIGH...AS PRECIPITATION COULD EITHER
STREAM MORE QUICKLY INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT OR
COULD BE HELD MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON BOTH DAYS...AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. FOR THE SAKE OF
SIMPLICITY WE HAVE SHOWN MORE OF AVERAGE WINDS IN THE 06Z
TAFS...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS THIS MORNING AND WINDS
TONIGHT WILL ACTUALLY GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN CALM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS MORNING...A SOLID NORTH/NE SURGE OF WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
MARINE DISTRICT IN RESPONSE TO A 1030 MB HIGH BUILDING OUT OF THE
VIRGINIAS. THE ENSUING COLD ADVECTION AND ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE
RISES OF CLOSE TO 1 MB/HOUR THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WILL BUMP
WINDS UP TO 15 OR 20 KT EVERYWHERE. BUT THE GRADIENT WILL BE
GREATEST ON THE CHARLESTON COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS...AND IT IS HERE
WHERE WE HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MIDDAY FOR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 KT. THE OTHER WATERS WILL BE CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CONDITIONS...BUT AT PRESENT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW THE CRITERIA.

THIS AFTERNOON...RAPID IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD
ADVECTION HALTS...PRESSURE RISES STOP AND THE CORE OF THE
CONTINENTAL HIGH SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL CLOCK
AROUND TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS AS SEAS ALSO FALL.

TONIGHT...WE/LL START THE NIGHT UNDERNEATH THE OFFSHORE
TRANSITIONING HIGH...RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE WIND AND LIMITED
SEAS. BUT THE HIGH DOES SLIDE SE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THIS ALONG WITH A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AFTER 06Z WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTH/SW WINDS TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS 10 OR 15 KT AS SEAS
RISE MAYBE A FOOT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SURGE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STABLE
MARINE ENVIRONMENT...HELD WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A MODEST SURGE OF NORTHEAST
WINDS...BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY SCA CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY
LOW. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO STALL
AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK...BUT ONCE AGAIN
MARINE LAYER STABILITY COULD PREVENT SCA WINDS/SEAS.

ALSO OF NOTE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG OVER
NEAR SHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY UNTIL A COLD FROPA OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS MARCH 29TH...
KCHS...32 SET IN 1969.
KSAV...33 SET IN 1955.
KCXM...37 SET IN 1982.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 290802
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
402 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY...THEN SHIFTS INTO THE
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE DEW POINT FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD AND CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE IS A LARGE AND COLD ARCTIC HIGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO FEED
AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR 2-4 HOURS ALONG OUR NW
TIER...WHERE THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD COLD AS SHOWN IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
THIS TRANSITION HAS ALSO CAUSED MIXING TO INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR
CONTINUES ITS PENETRATION SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NE
WINDS APPROACHING LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE
MOULTRIE...WHERE WE HAVE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

FOR THE BULK OF TODAY...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FRESHER CANADIAN AIR
MASS THERE ISN/T MUCH MODIFICATION THAT IS ABLE TO OCCUR. ALTHOUGH
COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL SHUT OFF AND BECOME NEUTRAL OR
EVEN SHOW SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE FULL
INSOLATION UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE HIGH AS IT SLIDES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR A LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS...SOME
20-30F...LEADING TO MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ONSHORE
TRAJECTORIES WILL HOLD SHORELINE COMMUNITIES SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE INLAND.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH IS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...AND THE GRADIENT IS RATHER NEBULOUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DECOUPLING AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL TRANSPIRE...CAUSING TEMPS TO PLUMMET QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE/LL EXPERIENCE A
GOOD 5-8 HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING NORTH AND UP TO 8-10 HOURS
SOUTH. WHILE IT WON/T BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING...MANY SECTIONS
INLAND WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS COMBINED WITH SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED FROST
ACROSS MUCH THE REGION INLAND FROM US-17. AS SUCH WE/LL MOST
LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.
FOR LATE TONIGHT OUR TEMPS WILL STEADY OFF OR EVEN RISE AS THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SW AND WARM ADVECTION
TAKES HOLD AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES
EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM
THE WEST/NW LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
NEARING THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A PREFRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE...MAINLY SUPPORTED BY AN 850
MB WESTERLY JET AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WILL
TRANSLATE QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTH/ SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FORCING SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...AND THE AXIS
OF ENHANCED 850-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BECOME LESS WELL-
DEFINED WITH TIME. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING TRENDS EVIDENT IN
FORCING/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELDS...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 30-40
PERCENT LATE MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ADJUSTED
TIMING OF TO FAVOR A FASTER TREND FAVORED BY ALL OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE 29/00 UTC NAM. ALSO OF NOTE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD EAST ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THUS A MENTION OF THUNDER REMAINS JUSTIFIED
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
FAR NORTH TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION REMAIN LESS PROMINENT THAN EXPECTED...INCREASING W/SW
WINDS COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS A WIDER SWATH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED/WEAKENING BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE THE 29/00 UTC NAM IS
LIKELY OVERDONE DEPICTING A RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL JUSTIFIED IN THIS AREA MONDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH TAPER TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S WILL BE COMMON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND
FRONT WILL ALSO STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR PERHAPS JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO RIDE THE WEST/NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO MAINTAIN
RAIN-FREE FORECASTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INCLUDING A MENTION OF THUNDER ARE WARRANTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE NOT HIGH...AS PRECIPITATION COULD EITHER
STREAM MORE QUICKLY INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT OR
COULD BE HELD MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON BOTH DAYS...AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. FOR THE SAKE OF
SIMPLICITY WE HAVE SHOWN MORE OF AVERAGE WINDS IN THE 06Z
TAFS...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS THIS MORNING AND WINDS
TONIGHT WILL ACTUALLY GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN CALM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS MORNING...A SOLID NORTH/NE SURGE OF WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
MARINE DISTRICT IN RESPONSE TO A 1030 MB HIGH BUILDING OUT OF THE
VIRGINIAS. THE ENSUING COLD ADVECTION AND ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE
RISES OF CLOSE TO 1 MB/HOUR THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WILL BUMP
WINDS UP TO 15 OR 20 KT EVERYWHERE. BUT THE GRADIENT WILL BE
GREATEST ON THE CHARLESTON COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS...AND IT IS HERE
WHERE WE HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MIDDAY FOR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 KT. THE OTHER WATERS WILL BE CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CONDITIONS...BUT AT PRESENT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW THE CRITERIA.

THIS AFTERNOON...RAPID IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD
ADVECTION HALTS...PRESSURE RISES STOP AND THE CORE OF THE
CONTINENTAL HIGH SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL CLOCK
AROUND TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS AS SEAS ALSO FALL.

TONIGHT...WE/LL START THE NIGHT UNDERNEATH THE OFFSHORE
TRANSITIONING HIGH...RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE WIND AND LIMITED
SEAS. BUT THE HIGH DOES SLIDE SE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THIS ALONG WITH A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AFTER 06Z WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTH/SW WINDS TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS 10 OR 15 KT AS SEAS
RISE MAYBE A FOOT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SURGE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STABLE
MARINE ENVIRONMENT...HELD WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A MODEST SURGE OF NORTHEAST
WINDS...BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY SCA CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY
LOW. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO STALL
AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK...BUT ONCE AGAIN
MARINE LAYER STABILITY COULD PREVENT SCA WINDS/SEAS.

ALSO OF NOTE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG OVER
NEAR SHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY UNTIL A COLD FROPA OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS MARCH 29TH...
KCHS...32 SET IN 1969.
KSAV...33 SET IN 1955.
KCXM...37 SET IN 1982.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 290802
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
402 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY...THEN SHIFTS INTO THE
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...AND BOTH FRONTS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE DEW POINT FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD AND CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE IS A LARGE AND COLD ARCTIC HIGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO FEED
AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR 2-4 HOURS ALONG OUR NW
TIER...WHERE THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD COLD AS SHOWN IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
THIS TRANSITION HAS ALSO CAUSED MIXING TO INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR
CONTINUES ITS PENETRATION SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NE
WINDS APPROACHING LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE
MOULTRIE...WHERE WE HAVE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

FOR THE BULK OF TODAY...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FRESHER CANADIAN AIR
MASS THERE ISN/T MUCH MODIFICATION THAT IS ABLE TO OCCUR. ALTHOUGH
COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL SHUT OFF AND BECOME NEUTRAL OR
EVEN SHOW SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE FULL
INSOLATION UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE HIGH AS IT SLIDES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR A LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS...SOME
20-30F...LEADING TO MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ONSHORE
TRAJECTORIES WILL HOLD SHORELINE COMMUNITIES SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE INLAND.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH IS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...AND THE GRADIENT IS RATHER NEBULOUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DECOUPLING AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL TRANSPIRE...CAUSING TEMPS TO PLUMMET QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE/LL EXPERIENCE A
GOOD 5-8 HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING NORTH AND UP TO 8-10 HOURS
SOUTH. WHILE IT WON/T BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING...MANY SECTIONS
INLAND WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS COMBINED WITH SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED FROST
ACROSS MUCH THE REGION INLAND FROM US-17. AS SUCH WE/LL MOST
LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.
FOR LATE TONIGHT OUR TEMPS WILL STEADY OFF OR EVEN RISE AS THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SW AND WARM ADVECTION
TAKES HOLD AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES
EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM
THE WEST/NW LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
NEARING THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A PREFRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE...MAINLY SUPPORTED BY AN 850
MB WESTERLY JET AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WILL
TRANSLATE QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTH/ SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FORCING SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...AND THE AXIS
OF ENHANCED 850-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BECOME LESS WELL-
DEFINED WITH TIME. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING TRENDS EVIDENT IN
FORCING/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELDS...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT 30-40
PERCENT LATE MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ADJUSTED
TIMING OF TO FAVOR A FASTER TREND FAVORED BY ALL OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE 29/00 UTC NAM. ALSO OF NOTE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD EAST ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THUS A MENTION OF THUNDER REMAINS JUSTIFIED
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
FAR NORTH TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION REMAIN LESS PROMINENT THAN EXPECTED...INCREASING W/SW
WINDS COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS A WIDER SWATH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED/WEAKENING BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE THE 29/00 UTC NAM IS
LIKELY OVERDONE DEPICTING A RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL JUSTIFIED IN THIS AREA MONDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH TAPER TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S WILL BE COMMON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND
FRONT WILL ALSO STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OR PERHAPS JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO RIDE THE WEST/NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO MAINTAIN
RAIN-FREE FORECASTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INCLUDING A MENTION OF THUNDER ARE WARRANTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE NOT HIGH...AS PRECIPITATION COULD EITHER
STREAM MORE QUICKLY INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT OR
COULD BE HELD MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON BOTH DAYS...AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THEN...NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.

AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUSTIFIED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FRIDAY COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT CHANCE POPS AND A MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CENTERED ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. FOR THE SAKE OF
SIMPLICITY WE HAVE SHOWN MORE OF AVERAGE WINDS IN THE 06Z
TAFS...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS THIS MORNING AND WINDS
TONIGHT WILL ACTUALLY GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN CALM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS MORNING...A SOLID NORTH/NE SURGE OF WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
MARINE DISTRICT IN RESPONSE TO A 1030 MB HIGH BUILDING OUT OF THE
VIRGINIAS. THE ENSUING COLD ADVECTION AND ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE
RISES OF CLOSE TO 1 MB/HOUR THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WILL BUMP
WINDS UP TO 15 OR 20 KT EVERYWHERE. BUT THE GRADIENT WILL BE
GREATEST ON THE CHARLESTON COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS...AND IT IS HERE
WHERE WE HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MIDDAY FOR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 KT. THE OTHER WATERS WILL BE CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CONDITIONS...BUT AT PRESENT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW THE CRITERIA.

THIS AFTERNOON...RAPID IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD
ADVECTION HALTS...PRESSURE RISES STOP AND THE CORE OF THE
CONTINENTAL HIGH SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL CLOCK
AROUND TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS AS SEAS ALSO FALL.

TONIGHT...WE/LL START THE NIGHT UNDERNEATH THE OFFSHORE
TRANSITIONING HIGH...RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE WIND AND LIMITED
SEAS. BUT THE HIGH DOES SLIDE SE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THIS ALONG WITH A DECENT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AFTER 06Z WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTH/SW WINDS TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS 10 OR 15 KT AS SEAS
RISE MAYBE A FOOT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SURGE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STABLE
MARINE ENVIRONMENT...HELD WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A MODEST SURGE OF NORTHEAST
WINDS...BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY SCA CONDITIONS REMAINS VERY
LOW. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO STALL
AND DISSIPATE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK...BUT ONCE AGAIN
MARINE LAYER STABILITY COULD PREVENT SCA WINDS/SEAS.

ALSO OF NOTE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG OVER
NEAR SHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY UNTIL A COLD FROPA OCCURS
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS MARCH 29TH...
KCHS...32 SET IN 1969.
KSAV...33 SET IN 1955.
KCXM...37 SET IN 1982.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290618
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
218 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE
BASED INVERSION OVERNIGHT AND LOW- LEVEL JET AROUND 15 TO 20
KNOTS...WEAKENING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE
30S BUT WILL MOST LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL NEAR
SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SEVERAL RUNS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR HARD FREEZE REMAINS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT WHERE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM
UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE
50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE.
SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
TOO DRY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.

&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 290618
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
218 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE
BASED INVERSION OVERNIGHT AND LOW- LEVEL JET AROUND 15 TO 20
KNOTS...WEAKENING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE
30S BUT WILL MOST LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL NEAR
SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SEVERAL RUNS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR HARD FREEZE REMAINS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT WHERE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM
UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE
50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE.
SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
TOO DRY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE