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000
FXUS62 KCHS 240800
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
400 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO PREVAIL
INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE MONDAY AND WILL BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A BIT MORE UNSETTLED TODAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AS A
LOW AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. DECENT WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
HELP KEEP THE SEA BREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COAST AND THUS IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL EARLY-MID AFTERNOON TO GET CONVECTION GOING
LOCALLY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING UP TO
THE WEST NEAR THE TROUGH AND THESE WILL BE PROGRESSING EASTWARD AS
WELL. ALL OF THE CONVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY APPEARS MODERATE BUT DEEP
LAYER FLOW WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AND THUS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARD GIVEN SOME DRIER AIR
ALOFT. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY GIVEN THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH A GOOD BET. HIGHS SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE MID 90S INLAND AND PROBABLY EVEN CLOSE TO 90 AT THE
COAST GIVEN THE STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW/PINNED SEA BREEZE.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA BEFORE
STALLING OUT AS IT RUNS OUT OF STEAM FROM ITS WEAKENING PARENT
TROUGH ALOFT. EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AS
INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING MOSTLY OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE DYING TROUGH. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR THE SOUTHERN APEX
OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH COVERING THE EAST/SE STATES...SNUGGLED IN
BETWEEN ONE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND ANOTHER COVERING
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE NATION. AT THE SAME TIME AT THE
SURFACE...THE EAST/NE TO WEST/SW ALIGNED TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE
ILL-DEFINED OVER OR JUST INLAND FROM THE CWFA...KEEPING AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. LAPSE RATES ARE POOR
OVERALL...BUT THERE IS SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE UPPER JET AND A POTENTIAL
PERTURBATION THAT MOVES IN ALOFT DURING PEAK HEATING. THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS. A WARM WEST/SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL NEGATE SOME OF
THE 50-70 PERCENT CLOUD COVER...BOOSTING TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S
BEFORE RAIN-COOLED CONVECTION SETS IN.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT LATER
SATURDAY AND IN ITS PLACE THERE IS A MERGER OF THE THE TWO
ANTICYCLONES BY SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING TO ENCOMPASS THE AREA FROM THE
BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE ROCKIES. THERE ARE
STILL HINTS OF THE REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH APPEARS TO
MORPH INTO THE TYPICAL PIEDMONT TROUGH. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT NONE ARE
APPARENT AT THIS JUNCTURE FOR SUNDAY. WITH LESS AVAILABILITY OF
MOISTURE GIVEN THAT PWATS FALL TO BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 50TH
PERCENTILE OVER THE WEEKEND OUR RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE NO MORE THAN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE SATURDAY AND ISOLATED COVERAGE
SUNDAY. WITH LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND AN EXPANSION OF
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS OUR MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. WHILE HEAT INDICES WON/T BE
ANYWHERE NEAR THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110 DEGREES OR
GREATER...BY SUNDAY SOME PLACES WILL EXPERIENCE A HEAT INDEX OF
ABOUT 104-108 DEGREES. WE MENTION THIS BECAUSE WE HAVE ONLY ISSUED
ONE HEAT ADVISORY SO FAR THIS YEAR AND VALUES SUCH AS THESE HAVE BE
UNCOMMON OF LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED GYRE OVER OR NEAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY IN CANADA WILL
CIRCULATE OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY WHICH CARVES OUT A BROAD AND FAIRLY WELL AMPLIFIED TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SENDS AN UNUSUAL MID SUMMER COLD FRONT INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NW LATER MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. SURPRISINGLY IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS ENOUGH NW PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT TO SEND IT
THROUGH THE AREA...BEFORE IT STALLS OUT NOT FAR TO THE SE AND SOUTH
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL CLIMB MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY IN THE 20-40 PERCENT
RANGE. PROVIDED THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA RAIN CHANCES ARE NO MORE
THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY...THEN 20-30 PERCENT NEXT THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT STARTS TO TREK BACK NORTH. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ALLOWS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY...WITH ONLY VERY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION TO DROP READINGS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH AND THE SEA BREEZE
WILL YIELD SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS. WE
MAINTAINED VCTS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
VFR...WITH ONLY SMALL PROBABILITIES OF BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. BETTER CHANCES
FOR SUB-VFR WEATHER MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PROGRESS
TOWARD THE COAST THIS EVENING AND STALL OUT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BEFORE LESSENING
AND SHIFTING WEST LATE TONIGHT. WE MAINTAINED WINDS NO MORE THAN
20 KT...JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT...MAINLY ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND
OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS SHOULD PEAK NEAR 4 FT...HIGHEST EAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY IN REGARDS TO
SUMMERTIME MARINE CONDITIONS...WITH A WEST AND SW FLOW AT LESS THAN
15 KT AS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIE BETWEEN A POORLY DEFINED INLAND
TROUGH AND THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS FLORIDA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NE QUAD
OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE IS SHUNTED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THIS
ALLOWS FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH EARLY IN THE WEEK...PROBABLY
STALLING OUT OVER OR NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS A FAIRLY DECENT TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT THAT
OCCURS...A GOOD 2-3 MB SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE LOCAL
MARINE ZONES. IT DOESN/T LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS...BUT WE COULD BE PUSHING 20 KT AT TIMES AND
SEAS WILL BE BUILDING TO 4 OR 5 FT. WE/LL ALSO NEED TO REMAIN
ALERT FOR ORGANIZED T-STORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD
FRONT...MAINLY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...33/RJB
MARINE...33/RJB






000
FXUS62 KCHS 240800
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
400 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO PREVAIL
INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE MONDAY AND WILL BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A BIT MORE UNSETTLED TODAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AS A
LOW AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. DECENT WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
HELP KEEP THE SEA BREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COAST AND THUS IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL EARLY-MID AFTERNOON TO GET CONVECTION GOING
LOCALLY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING UP TO
THE WEST NEAR THE TROUGH AND THESE WILL BE PROGRESSING EASTWARD AS
WELL. ALL OF THE CONVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY APPEARS MODERATE BUT DEEP
LAYER FLOW WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AND THUS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARD GIVEN SOME DRIER AIR
ALOFT. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY GIVEN THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH A GOOD BET. HIGHS SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE MID 90S INLAND AND PROBABLY EVEN CLOSE TO 90 AT THE
COAST GIVEN THE STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW/PINNED SEA BREEZE.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA BEFORE
STALLING OUT AS IT RUNS OUT OF STEAM FROM ITS WEAKENING PARENT
TROUGH ALOFT. EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AS
INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING MOSTLY OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE DYING TROUGH. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR THE SOUTHERN APEX
OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH COVERING THE EAST/SE STATES...SNUGGLED IN
BETWEEN ONE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND ANOTHER COVERING
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE NATION. AT THE SAME TIME AT THE
SURFACE...THE EAST/NE TO WEST/SW ALIGNED TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE
ILL-DEFINED OVER OR JUST INLAND FROM THE CWFA...KEEPING AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. LAPSE RATES ARE POOR
OVERALL...BUT THERE IS SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE UPPER JET AND A POTENTIAL
PERTURBATION THAT MOVES IN ALOFT DURING PEAK HEATING. THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS. A WARM WEST/SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL NEGATE SOME OF
THE 50-70 PERCENT CLOUD COVER...BOOSTING TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S
BEFORE RAIN-COOLED CONVECTION SETS IN.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT LATER
SATURDAY AND IN ITS PLACE THERE IS A MERGER OF THE THE TWO
ANTICYCLONES BY SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING TO ENCOMPASS THE AREA FROM THE
BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE ROCKIES. THERE ARE
STILL HINTS OF THE REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH APPEARS TO
MORPH INTO THE TYPICAL PIEDMONT TROUGH. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT NONE ARE
APPARENT AT THIS JUNCTURE FOR SUNDAY. WITH LESS AVAILABILITY OF
MOISTURE GIVEN THAT PWATS FALL TO BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 50TH
PERCENTILE OVER THE WEEKEND OUR RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE NO MORE THAN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE SATURDAY AND ISOLATED COVERAGE
SUNDAY. WITH LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND AN EXPANSION OF
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS OUR MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. WHILE HEAT INDICES WON/T BE
ANYWHERE NEAR THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110 DEGREES OR
GREATER...BY SUNDAY SOME PLACES WILL EXPERIENCE A HEAT INDEX OF
ABOUT 104-108 DEGREES. WE MENTION THIS BECAUSE WE HAVE ONLY ISSUED
ONE HEAT ADVISORY SO FAR THIS YEAR AND VALUES SUCH AS THESE HAVE BE
UNCOMMON OF LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED GYRE OVER OR NEAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY IN CANADA WILL
CIRCULATE OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY WHICH CARVES OUT A BROAD AND FAIRLY WELL AMPLIFIED TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SENDS AN UNUSUAL MID SUMMER COLD FRONT INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NW LATER MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. SURPRISINGLY IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS ENOUGH NW PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT TO SEND IT
THROUGH THE AREA...BEFORE IT STALLS OUT NOT FAR TO THE SE AND SOUTH
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL CLIMB MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY IN THE 20-40 PERCENT
RANGE. PROVIDED THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA RAIN CHANCES ARE NO MORE
THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY...THEN 20-30 PERCENT NEXT THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT STARTS TO TREK BACK NORTH. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ALLOWS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY...WITH ONLY VERY
MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION TO DROP READINGS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH AND THE SEA BREEZE
WILL YIELD SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS. WE
MAINTAINED VCTS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
VFR...WITH ONLY SMALL PROBABILITIES OF BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. BETTER CHANCES
FOR SUB-VFR WEATHER MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PROGRESS
TOWARD THE COAST THIS EVENING AND STALL OUT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BEFORE LESSENING
AND SHIFTING WEST LATE TONIGHT. WE MAINTAINED WINDS NO MORE THAN
20 KT...JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT...MAINLY ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND
OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS SHOULD PEAK NEAR 4 FT...HIGHEST EAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY IN REGARDS TO
SUMMERTIME MARINE CONDITIONS...WITH A WEST AND SW FLOW AT LESS THAN
15 KT AS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIE BETWEEN A POORLY DEFINED INLAND
TROUGH AND THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS FLORIDA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NE QUAD
OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE IS SHUNTED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THIS
ALLOWS FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH EARLY IN THE WEEK...PROBABLY
STALLING OUT OVER OR NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS A FAIRLY DECENT TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT THAT
OCCURS...A GOOD 2-3 MB SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE LOCAL
MARINE ZONES. IT DOESN/T LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS...BUT WE COULD BE PUSHING 20 KT AT TIMES AND
SEAS WILL BE BUILDING TO 4 OR 5 FT. WE/LL ALSO NEED TO REMAIN
ALERT FOR ORGANIZED T-STORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD
FRONT...MAINLY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...33/RJB
MARINE...33/RJB






  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCAE 240759
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
359 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND WEAKEN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED INTO THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES. MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS/WEAK WARM
ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS STRONGEST IN THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AREA IN FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WITH RESULTING MODERATELY STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. ALTHOUGH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIFT TO
THE EAST AND NORTH OF REGION ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WIND MAIN THREAT DUE TO PRECIPITATION LOADING MAINLY
NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. WITH FRONT MOVING
INTO AREA...THINK MOS CONSENSUS POPS A LITTLE LOW ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SREF SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS...SO
WENT LIKELY IN THOSE REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFTS TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXPECT DECREASING POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK OK.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
POSSIBLY MOVING THRU THE AREA BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLAT RIDGE
BUILDING LATER ON SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST MIDLANDS NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED
ON SATURDAY WITH WEAKER FORCING. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. PREFER
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF
THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WE KEPT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR SATURDAY. CHANCE
POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TN. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 4 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE SCATTERED CLOUDS HELP
TO PREVENT FOG...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT.
HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAIN LOW. FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 25/00Z
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 8 KNOTS THIS MORNING...VEERING TO WESTERLY AND INCREASING
TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 25/00Z...FINALLY
SUBSIDING TO WESTERLY AROUND 7 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 240759
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
359 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND WEAKEN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED INTO THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES. MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS/WEAK WARM
ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS STRONGEST IN THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AREA IN FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WITH RESULTING MODERATELY STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. ALTHOUGH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIFT TO
THE EAST AND NORTH OF REGION ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WIND MAIN THREAT DUE TO PRECIPITATION LOADING MAINLY
NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. WITH FRONT MOVING
INTO AREA...THINK MOS CONSENSUS POPS A LITTLE LOW ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SREF SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS...SO
WENT LIKELY IN THOSE REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFTS TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXPECT DECREASING POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK OK.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
POSSIBLY MOVING THRU THE AREA BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLAT RIDGE
BUILDING LATER ON SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST MIDLANDS NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED
ON SATURDAY WITH WEAKER FORCING. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. PREFER
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF
THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WE KEPT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR SATURDAY. CHANCE
POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TN. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 4 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE SCATTERED CLOUDS HELP
TO PREVENT FOG...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT.
HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAIN LOW. FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 25/00Z
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 8 KNOTS THIS MORNING...VEERING TO WESTERLY AND INCREASING
TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 25/00Z...FINALLY
SUBSIDING TO WESTERLY AROUND 7 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 240751
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
351 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND WEAKEN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED INTO THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES. MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS/WEAK WARM
ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS STRONGEST IN THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AREA IN FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WITH RESULTING MODERATELY STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. ALTHOUGH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIFT TO
THE EAST AND NORTH OF REGION ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE. WITH FRONT MOVING INTO AREA...THINK MOS CONSENSUS POPS A
LITTLE LOW ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SREF
SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS...SO WENT LIKELY IN THOSE REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFTS TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXPECT DECREASING POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK OK.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
POSSIBLY MOVING THRU THE AREA BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLAT RIDGE
BUILDING LATER ON SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST MIDLANDS NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED
ON SATURDAY WITH WEAKER FORCING. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. PREFER
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF
THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WE KEPT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR SATURDAY. CHANCE
POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TN. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 4 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE SCATTERED CLOUDS HELP
TO PREVENT FOG...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT.
HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAIN LOW. FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 25/00Z
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 8 KNOTS THIS MORNING...VEERING TO WESTERLY AND INCREASING
TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 25/00Z...FINALLY
SUBSIDING TO WESTERLY AROUND 7 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 240751
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
351 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND WEAKEN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED INTO THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES. MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS/WEAK WARM
ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS STRONGEST IN THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AREA IN FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WITH RESULTING MODERATELY STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. ALTHOUGH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIFT TO
THE EAST AND NORTH OF REGION ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE. WITH FRONT MOVING INTO AREA...THINK MOS CONSENSUS POPS A
LITTLE LOW ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SREF
SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS...SO WENT LIKELY IN THOSE REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFTS TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXPECT DECREASING POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK OK.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
POSSIBLY MOVING THRU THE AREA BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLAT RIDGE
BUILDING LATER ON SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST MIDLANDS NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED
ON SATURDAY WITH WEAKER FORCING. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. PREFER
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF
THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WE KEPT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR SATURDAY. CHANCE
POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TN. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 4 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE SCATTERED CLOUDS HELP
TO PREVENT FOG...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT.
HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAIN LOW. FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 25/00Z
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 8 KNOTS THIS MORNING...VEERING TO WESTERLY AND INCREASING
TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 25/00Z...FINALLY
SUBSIDING TO WESTERLY AROUND 7 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 240751
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
351 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND WEAKEN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED INTO THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES. MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS/WEAK WARM
ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS STRONGEST IN THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AREA IN FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WITH RESULTING MODERATELY STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. ALTHOUGH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIFT TO
THE EAST AND NORTH OF REGION ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE. WITH FRONT MOVING INTO AREA...THINK MOS CONSENSUS POPS A
LITTLE LOW ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SREF
SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS...SO WENT LIKELY IN THOSE REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFTS TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXPECT DECREASING POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK OK.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
POSSIBLY MOVING THRU THE AREA BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLAT RIDGE
BUILDING LATER ON SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST MIDLANDS NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED
ON SATURDAY WITH WEAKER FORCING. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. PREFER
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF
THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WE KEPT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR SATURDAY. CHANCE
POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TN. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 4 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE SCATTERED CLOUDS HELP
TO PREVENT FOG...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT.
HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAIN LOW. FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 25/00Z
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 8 KNOTS THIS MORNING...VEERING TO WESTERLY AND INCREASING
TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 25/00Z...FINALLY
SUBSIDING TO WESTERLY AROUND 7 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 240751
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
351 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND WEAKEN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED INTO THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES. MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS/WEAK WARM
ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS STRONGEST IN THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AREA IN FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WITH RESULTING MODERATELY STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. ALTHOUGH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIFT TO
THE EAST AND NORTH OF REGION ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE. WITH FRONT MOVING INTO AREA...THINK MOS CONSENSUS POPS A
LITTLE LOW ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SREF
SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS...SO WENT LIKELY IN THOSE REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFTS TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXPECT DECREASING POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK OK.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
POSSIBLY MOVING THRU THE AREA BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLAT RIDGE
BUILDING LATER ON SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST MIDLANDS NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED
ON SATURDAY WITH WEAKER FORCING. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. PREFER
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF
THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WE KEPT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR SATURDAY. CHANCE
POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TN. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 4 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE SCATTERED CLOUDS HELP
TO PREVENT FOG...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT.
HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAIN LOW. FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 25/00Z
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 8 KNOTS THIS MORNING...VEERING TO WESTERLY AND INCREASING
TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 25/00Z...FINALLY
SUBSIDING TO WESTERLY AROUND 7 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 240612
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR COVERAGE BECOMING ISOLATED...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS LOW-LEVELS STABILIZE. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. CAN NOT
RULE OUT PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TN. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 4 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE SCATTERED CLOUDS HELP
TO PREVENT FOG...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT.
HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAIN LOW. FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 25/00Z
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 8 KNOTS THIS MORNING...VEERING TO WESTERLY AND INCREASING
TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 25/00Z...FINALLY
SUBSIDING TO WESTERLY AROUND 7 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 240612
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR COVERAGE BECOMING ISOLATED...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS LOW-LEVELS STABILIZE. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. CAN NOT
RULE OUT PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TN. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 4 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE SCATTERED CLOUDS HELP
TO PREVENT FOG...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT.
HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAIN LOW. FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 25/00Z
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 8 KNOTS THIS MORNING...VEERING TO WESTERLY AND INCREASING
TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 25/00Z...FINALLY
SUBSIDING TO WESTERLY AROUND 7 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 240612
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR COVERAGE BECOMING ISOLATED...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS LOW-LEVELS STABILIZE. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. CAN NOT
RULE OUT PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TN. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 4 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE SCATTERED CLOUDS HELP
TO PREVENT FOG...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT.
HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAIN LOW. FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 25/00Z
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 8 KNOTS THIS MORNING...VEERING TO WESTERLY AND INCREASING
TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 25/00Z...FINALLY
SUBSIDING TO WESTERLY AROUND 7 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 240612
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR COVERAGE BECOMING ISOLATED...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS LOW-LEVELS STABILIZE. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. CAN NOT
RULE OUT PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TN. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 4 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE SCATTERED CLOUDS HELP
TO PREVENT FOG...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT.
HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAIN LOW. FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 25/00Z
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 8 KNOTS THIS MORNING...VEERING TO WESTERLY AND INCREASING
TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 25/00Z...FINALLY
SUBSIDING TO WESTERLY AROUND 7 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








  [top]

000
FXUS62 KFFC 240600
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
200 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO POPS FOR TONIGHT. NOT SURE SHOWERS WILL
COMPLETELY GO AWAY OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE
THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

41

.PREVIOUS...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN LA COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BACK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE TROUGH HAS FORMED  ACROSS NORTHERN GA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN GA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDER HAS BEEN MORE ISOLATED...BUT
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND
APPROACH NORTH GA BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA TOMORROW...BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA. FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS WITH RATHER STRONG FROPA FOR LATE JULY. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE DECENT SHEAR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING...THOUGH TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM MAY STILL VARY
THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST AND COULD INFLUENCE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE TRENDED A BIT COOLER TEMPS IN POST FRONTAL
REGIME TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH SEVERAL FEATURES IMPACTING THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING RELATIVELY QUIET PERIODS IN
BETWEEN. HAVE ACTUALLY DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL MODELS
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA. AS A RESULT...HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND LONGWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. CHANCE POPS SUNDAY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY WEEK AND THEN EXIT QUICKLY LATE MONDAY AS SECOND FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. LONGWAVE TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS POSITION OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID WEEK...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
SECOND FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH MAY SEE A FEW PATCHES OF SCT MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND THIS
MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL MAYBE MID MORNING
WHEN DAYTIME HEATING AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH
GA COMBINE TO INCREASE AT LEAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE
TAF SITES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT..EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP... WARRANTING VCSH BY 17Z AT ATL
AND A PROB30 -TSRA FROM 18-24Z FOR NOW. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH
OF ATL BY 23Z TODAY WITH ANY ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CIGS SCATTERING.
LIGHT WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 8-10KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS
AFTER 14Z TODAY. EXPECT NW WINDS 5KTS OR LESS AND VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  87  71  90 /  20  60  30  10
ATLANTA         72  85  70  87 /  20  60  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     67  78  63  83 /  30  60  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    71  84  68  87 /  30  60  20  10
COLUMBUS        73  90  73  90 /  20  60  30  20
GAINESVILLE     70  84  68  86 /  20  60  20  10
MACON           73  91  72  90 /  20  60  30  30
ROME            71  84  67  88 /  30  60  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  71  87  69  88 /  20  60  30  20
VIDALIA         76  94  75  92 /  20  60  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....31/BAKER
AVIATION...39












000
FXUS62 KFFC 240600
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
200 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO POPS FOR TONIGHT. NOT SURE SHOWERS WILL
COMPLETELY GO AWAY OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE
THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

41

.PREVIOUS...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN LA COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BACK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE TROUGH HAS FORMED  ACROSS NORTHERN GA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN GA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDER HAS BEEN MORE ISOLATED...BUT
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND
APPROACH NORTH GA BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA TOMORROW...BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA. FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS WITH RATHER STRONG FROPA FOR LATE JULY. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE DECENT SHEAR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING...THOUGH TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM MAY STILL VARY
THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST AND COULD INFLUENCE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE TRENDED A BIT COOLER TEMPS IN POST FRONTAL
REGIME TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH SEVERAL FEATURES IMPACTING THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING RELATIVELY QUIET PERIODS IN
BETWEEN. HAVE ACTUALLY DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL MODELS
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA. AS A RESULT...HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND LONGWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. CHANCE POPS SUNDAY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY WEEK AND THEN EXIT QUICKLY LATE MONDAY AS SECOND FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. LONGWAVE TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS POSITION OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID WEEK...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
SECOND FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH MAY SEE A FEW PATCHES OF SCT MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND THIS
MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL MAYBE MID MORNING
WHEN DAYTIME HEATING AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH
GA COMBINE TO INCREASE AT LEAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE
TAF SITES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT..EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP... WARRANTING VCSH BY 17Z AT ATL
AND A PROB30 -TSRA FROM 18-24Z FOR NOW. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH
OF ATL BY 23Z TODAY WITH ANY ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CIGS SCATTERING.
LIGHT WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 8-10KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS
AFTER 14Z TODAY. EXPECT NW WINDS 5KTS OR LESS AND VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  87  71  90 /  20  60  30  10
ATLANTA         72  85  70  87 /  20  60  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     67  78  63  83 /  30  60  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    71  84  68  87 /  30  60  20  10
COLUMBUS        73  90  73  90 /  20  60  30  20
GAINESVILLE     70  84  68  86 /  20  60  20  10
MACON           73  91  72  90 /  20  60  30  30
ROME            71  84  67  88 /  30  60  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  71  87  69  88 /  20  60  30  20
VIDALIA         76  94  75  92 /  20  60  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....31/BAKER
AVIATION...39













000
FXUS62 KCHS 240519
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
119 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE WEEKEND..BEFORE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND STALLS
NEAR THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
GENERALLY DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH A MILD SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. COULD SEE A LITTLE FOG...MAINLY IN PLACES
THAT SAW RAIN WEDNESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH AS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 70S EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC
RIDGING AND AN UPPER TROUGH STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE STRONGEST BAND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOLID WEST FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AND A
CAPPING INVERSION THAT PERSISTS INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
THESE FACTORS COULD DELAY INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE SEABREEZE WILL
BE PINNED TO THE COAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD ACTUALLY BE THE RESULT OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION PROGRESSING INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN AMPLIFYING INLAND SURFACE TROUGH SLIPPING
TOWARD THE COAST. HAVE THUS INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS THAT
COULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHERE UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS
ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A 5 PERCENT RISK ZONE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SMALL POTENTIAL. WARM WEST FLOW AND THE PINNED SEABREEZE WILL
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
LINGER OVER THE COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SLIP DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...PROVIDING THE ENERGY AND
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LIGHTER WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS INLAND...AND BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR
GENERALLY ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES WITH ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIRECTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. CONSIDERING THICKER
CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS
GENERALLY LOWER THAN THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER WIND FIELDS.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DISSIPATING BY THE
WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES NORTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND DE-AMPLIFIES THE EAST COAST TROUGH ALOFT. BOTH 12Z GFS
AND 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE POSSIBLY
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND FOCUSED ON THE SEABREEZE LATER IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER
SLOWLY INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND MORE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. A SURFACE TROUGH AND THE SEA BREEZE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS. WE
MAINTAINED VCTS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH WILL ENHANCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...PRODUCING SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT OVER OUTER
PORTIONS WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS MORE LIKELY CLOSE IN.

THE MARINE ZONES WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THERE WILL BE
SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND A
MODERATELY ENHANCED GRADIENT WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH. HOWEVER...
OVERALL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE DUE TO THE LIMITED OFFSHORE FETCH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO
THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN
PLACE. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...WINDS COULD CERTAINLY PEAK AT 15 OR 20 KT
AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...JRL/WMS






000
FXUS62 KCHS 240519
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
119 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE WEEKEND..BEFORE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND STALLS
NEAR THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
GENERALLY DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH A MILD SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. COULD SEE A LITTLE FOG...MAINLY IN PLACES
THAT SAW RAIN WEDNESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH AS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 70S EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC
RIDGING AND AN UPPER TROUGH STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE STRONGEST BAND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOLID WEST FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AND A
CAPPING INVERSION THAT PERSISTS INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
THESE FACTORS COULD DELAY INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE SEABREEZE WILL
BE PINNED TO THE COAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD ACTUALLY BE THE RESULT OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION PROGRESSING INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN AMPLIFYING INLAND SURFACE TROUGH SLIPPING
TOWARD THE COAST. HAVE THUS INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS THAT
COULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHERE UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS
ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A 5 PERCENT RISK ZONE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SMALL POTENTIAL. WARM WEST FLOW AND THE PINNED SEABREEZE WILL
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
LINGER OVER THE COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SLIP DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...PROVIDING THE ENERGY AND
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LIGHTER WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS INLAND...AND BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR
GENERALLY ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES WITH ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIRECTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. CONSIDERING THICKER
CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS
GENERALLY LOWER THAN THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER WIND FIELDS.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DISSIPATING BY THE
WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES NORTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND DE-AMPLIFIES THE EAST COAST TROUGH ALOFT. BOTH 12Z GFS
AND 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE POSSIBLY
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND FOCUSED ON THE SEABREEZE LATER IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER
SLOWLY INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND MORE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. A SURFACE TROUGH AND THE SEA BREEZE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS. WE
MAINTAINED VCTS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH WILL ENHANCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...PRODUCING SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT OVER OUTER
PORTIONS WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS MORE LIKELY CLOSE IN.

THE MARINE ZONES WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THERE WILL BE
SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND A
MODERATELY ENHANCED GRADIENT WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH. HOWEVER...
OVERALL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE DUE TO THE LIMITED OFFSHORE FETCH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO
THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN
PLACE. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...WINDS COULD CERTAINLY PEAK AT 15 OR 20 KT
AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...JRL/WMS






000
FXUS62 KCHS 240519
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
119 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE WEEKEND..BEFORE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND STALLS
NEAR THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
GENERALLY DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH A MILD SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. COULD SEE A LITTLE FOG...MAINLY IN PLACES
THAT SAW RAIN WEDNESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH AS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 70S EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC
RIDGING AND AN UPPER TROUGH STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE STRONGEST BAND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOLID WEST FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AND A
CAPPING INVERSION THAT PERSISTS INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
THESE FACTORS COULD DELAY INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE SEABREEZE WILL
BE PINNED TO THE COAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD ACTUALLY BE THE RESULT OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION PROGRESSING INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN AMPLIFYING INLAND SURFACE TROUGH SLIPPING
TOWARD THE COAST. HAVE THUS INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS THAT
COULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHERE UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS
ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A 5 PERCENT RISK ZONE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SMALL POTENTIAL. WARM WEST FLOW AND THE PINNED SEABREEZE WILL
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
LINGER OVER THE COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SLIP DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...PROVIDING THE ENERGY AND
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LIGHTER WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS INLAND...AND BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR
GENERALLY ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES WITH ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIRECTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. CONSIDERING THICKER
CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS
GENERALLY LOWER THAN THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER WIND FIELDS.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DISSIPATING BY THE
WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES NORTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND DE-AMPLIFIES THE EAST COAST TROUGH ALOFT. BOTH 12Z GFS
AND 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE POSSIBLY
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND FOCUSED ON THE SEABREEZE LATER IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER
SLOWLY INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND MORE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. A SURFACE TROUGH AND THE SEA BREEZE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS. WE
MAINTAINED VCTS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH WILL ENHANCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...PRODUCING SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT OVER OUTER
PORTIONS WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS MORE LIKELY CLOSE IN.

THE MARINE ZONES WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THERE WILL BE
SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND A
MODERATELY ENHANCED GRADIENT WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH. HOWEVER...
OVERALL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE DUE TO THE LIMITED OFFSHORE FETCH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO
THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN
PLACE. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...WINDS COULD CERTAINLY PEAK AT 15 OR 20 KT
AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...JRL/WMS






000
FXUS62 KCHS 240519
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
119 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE WEEKEND..BEFORE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND STALLS
NEAR THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
GENERALLY DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH A MILD SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. COULD SEE A LITTLE FOG...MAINLY IN PLACES
THAT SAW RAIN WEDNESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH AS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 70S EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC
RIDGING AND AN UPPER TROUGH STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE STRONGEST BAND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOLID WEST FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AND A
CAPPING INVERSION THAT PERSISTS INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
THESE FACTORS COULD DELAY INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE SEABREEZE WILL
BE PINNED TO THE COAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD ACTUALLY BE THE RESULT OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION PROGRESSING INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN AMPLIFYING INLAND SURFACE TROUGH SLIPPING
TOWARD THE COAST. HAVE THUS INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS THAT
COULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHERE UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS
ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A 5 PERCENT RISK ZONE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SMALL POTENTIAL. WARM WEST FLOW AND THE PINNED SEABREEZE WILL
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
LINGER OVER THE COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SLIP DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...PROVIDING THE ENERGY AND
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LIGHTER WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS INLAND...AND BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR
GENERALLY ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES WITH ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIRECTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. CONSIDERING THICKER
CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS
GENERALLY LOWER THAN THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER WIND FIELDS.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DISSIPATING BY THE
WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES NORTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND DE-AMPLIFIES THE EAST COAST TROUGH ALOFT. BOTH 12Z GFS
AND 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE POSSIBLY
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND FOCUSED ON THE SEABREEZE LATER IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER
SLOWLY INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND MORE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. A SURFACE TROUGH AND THE SEA BREEZE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS. WE
MAINTAINED VCTS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH WILL ENHANCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...PRODUCING SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT OVER OUTER
PORTIONS WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS MORE LIKELY CLOSE IN.

THE MARINE ZONES WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THERE WILL BE
SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND A
MODERATELY ENHANCED GRADIENT WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH. HOWEVER...
OVERALL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE DUE TO THE LIMITED OFFSHORE FETCH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO
THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN
PLACE. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...WINDS COULD CERTAINLY PEAK AT 15 OR 20 KT
AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...JRL/WMS






000
FXUS62 KFFC 240139
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
940 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO POPS FOR TONIGHT. NOT SURE SHOWERS WILL
COMPLETELY GO AWAY OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE
THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

41

.PREVIOUS...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN LA COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BACK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE TROUGH HAS FORMED  ACROSS NORTHERN GA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN GA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDER HAS BEEN MORE ISOLATED...BUT
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND
APPROACH NORTH GA BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA TOMORROW...BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA. FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS WITH RATHER STRONG FROPA FOR LATE JULY. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE DECENT SHEAR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING...THOUGH TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM MAY STILL VARY
THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST AND COULD INFLUENCE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE TRENDED A BIT COOLER TEMPS IN POST FRONTAL
REGIME TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH SEVERAL FEATURES IMPACTING THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING RELATIVELY QUIET PERIODS IN
BETWEEN. HAVE ACTUALLY DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL MODELS
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA. AS A RESULT...HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND LONGWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. CHANCE POPS SUNDAY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY WEEK AND THEN EXIT QUICKLY LATE MONDAY AS SECOND FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. LONGWAVE TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS POSITION OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID WEEK...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
SECOND FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. MODELS ARE NOT PROGGING IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT...BUT DO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME SCT MVFR CEILINGS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE VICINITY OF NORTH GA ON THURSDAY...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION. WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST THEN
INCREASING TO 8 TO 10KT WITH A FEW GUSTS AFTER 14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  87  71  90 /  20  60  30  10
ATLANTA         72  85  70  87 /  20  60  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     67  78  63  83 /  30  60  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    71  84  68  87 /  30  60  20  10
COLUMBUS        73  90  73  90 /  20  60  30  20
GAINESVILLE     70  84  68  86 /  20  60  20  10
MACON           73  91  72  90 /  20  60  30  30
ROME            71  84  67  88 /  30  60  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  71  87  69  88 /  20  60  30  20
VIDALIA         76  94  75  92 /  20  60  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....31/BAKER
AVIATION...41










000
FXUS62 KCHS 240136
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
936 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE WEEKEND..BEFORE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND STALLS
NEAR THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM
WELL INLAND BUT A DRY OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED OVERALL. MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. ISOLATED CONVECTION ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS AFTER 2 AM BUT CONVERGENCE PROGS ARE
WEAK AND GENERALLY PUSH ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION RISK OFFSHORE LATE
NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE WSW AND W NEARING
DAWN. ON OUR EVENING UPDATE...ONLY MINOR INITIALIZATION ADJUSTMENTS
WERE PERFORMED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC
RIDGING AND AN UPPER TROUGH STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE STRONGEST BAND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOLID WEST FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AND A
CAPPING INVERSION THAT PERSISTS INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
THESE FACTORS COULD DELAY INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE SEABREEZE WILL
BE PINNED TO THE COAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD ACTUALLY BE THE RESULT OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION PROGRESSING INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN AMPLIFYING INLAND SURFACE TROUGH SLIPPING
TOWARD THE COAST. HAVE THUS INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS THAT
COULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHERE UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS
ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A 5 PERCENT RISK ZONE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SMALL POTENTIAL. WARM WEST FLOW AND THE PINNED SEABREEZE WILL
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
LINGER OVER THE COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SLIP DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...PROVIDING THE ENERGY AND
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LIGHTER WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS INLAND...AND BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR
GENERALLY ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES WITH ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIRECTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. CONSIDERING THICKER
CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS
GENERALLY LOWER THAN THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER WIND FIELDS.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DISSIPATING BY THE
WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES NORTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND DE-AMPLIFIES THE EAST COAST TROUGH ALOFT. BOTH 12Z GFS
AND 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE POSSIBLY
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND FOCUSED ON THE SEABREEZE LATER IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER
SLOWLY INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND MORE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. THERE WAS SOME DECENT RAINS AT KCHS
BUT SYNOPTIC SW FLOW OVERNIGHT DOES NOT FAVOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
FOG.

A SURFACE TROUGH AND THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE
SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PROBABLY MORE COVERAGE
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL CORRIDOR THAN TODAY. WE BROAD-BRUSHED A
VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS BUT ADMIT FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND COVERAGE AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL
ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...PRODUCING SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT OVER
OUTER PORTIONS WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS MORE LIKELY CLOSE IN.

THE MARINE ZONES WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THERE WILL BE
SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND A
MODERATELY ENHANCED GRADIENT WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH. HOWEVER...
OVERALL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE DUE TO THE LIMITED OFFSHORE FETCH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO
THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN
PLACE. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...WINDS COULD CERTAINLY PEAK AT 15 OR 20 KT
AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 240136
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
936 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE WEEKEND..BEFORE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND STALLS
NEAR THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM
WELL INLAND BUT A DRY OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED OVERALL. MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. ISOLATED CONVECTION ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS AFTER 2 AM BUT CONVERGENCE PROGS ARE
WEAK AND GENERALLY PUSH ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION RISK OFFSHORE LATE
NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE WSW AND W NEARING
DAWN. ON OUR EVENING UPDATE...ONLY MINOR INITIALIZATION ADJUSTMENTS
WERE PERFORMED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC
RIDGING AND AN UPPER TROUGH STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE STRONGEST BAND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOLID WEST FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AND A
CAPPING INVERSION THAT PERSISTS INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
THESE FACTORS COULD DELAY INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE SEABREEZE WILL
BE PINNED TO THE COAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD ACTUALLY BE THE RESULT OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION PROGRESSING INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN AMPLIFYING INLAND SURFACE TROUGH SLIPPING
TOWARD THE COAST. HAVE THUS INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS THAT
COULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHERE UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS
ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A 5 PERCENT RISK ZONE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SMALL POTENTIAL. WARM WEST FLOW AND THE PINNED SEABREEZE WILL
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
LINGER OVER THE COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SLIP DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...PROVIDING THE ENERGY AND
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LIGHTER WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS INLAND...AND BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR
GENERALLY ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES WITH ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIRECTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. CONSIDERING THICKER
CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS
GENERALLY LOWER THAN THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER WIND FIELDS.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DISSIPATING BY THE
WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES NORTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND DE-AMPLIFIES THE EAST COAST TROUGH ALOFT. BOTH 12Z GFS
AND 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE POSSIBLY
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND FOCUSED ON THE SEABREEZE LATER IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER
SLOWLY INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND MORE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. THERE WAS SOME DECENT RAINS AT KCHS
BUT SYNOPTIC SW FLOW OVERNIGHT DOES NOT FAVOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
FOG.

A SURFACE TROUGH AND THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE
SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PROBABLY MORE COVERAGE
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL CORRIDOR THAN TODAY. WE BROAD-BRUSHED A
VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS BUT ADMIT FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND COVERAGE AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL
ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...PRODUCING SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT OVER
OUTER PORTIONS WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS MORE LIKELY CLOSE IN.

THE MARINE ZONES WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THERE WILL BE
SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND A
MODERATELY ENHANCED GRADIENT WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH. HOWEVER...
OVERALL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE DUE TO THE LIMITED OFFSHORE FETCH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO
THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN
PLACE. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...WINDS COULD CERTAINLY PEAK AT 15 OR 20 KT
AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 240136
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
936 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE WEEKEND..BEFORE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND STALLS
NEAR THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM
WELL INLAND BUT A DRY OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED OVERALL. MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. ISOLATED CONVECTION ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS AFTER 2 AM BUT CONVERGENCE PROGS ARE
WEAK AND GENERALLY PUSH ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION RISK OFFSHORE LATE
NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE WSW AND W NEARING
DAWN. ON OUR EVENING UPDATE...ONLY MINOR INITIALIZATION ADJUSTMENTS
WERE PERFORMED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC
RIDGING AND AN UPPER TROUGH STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE STRONGEST BAND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOLID WEST FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AND A
CAPPING INVERSION THAT PERSISTS INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
THESE FACTORS COULD DELAY INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE SEABREEZE WILL
BE PINNED TO THE COAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD ACTUALLY BE THE RESULT OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION PROGRESSING INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN AMPLIFYING INLAND SURFACE TROUGH SLIPPING
TOWARD THE COAST. HAVE THUS INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS THAT
COULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHERE UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS
ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A 5 PERCENT RISK ZONE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SMALL POTENTIAL. WARM WEST FLOW AND THE PINNED SEABREEZE WILL
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
LINGER OVER THE COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SLIP DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...PROVIDING THE ENERGY AND
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LIGHTER WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS INLAND...AND BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR
GENERALLY ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES WITH ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIRECTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. CONSIDERING THICKER
CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS
GENERALLY LOWER THAN THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER WIND FIELDS.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DISSIPATING BY THE
WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES NORTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND DE-AMPLIFIES THE EAST COAST TROUGH ALOFT. BOTH 12Z GFS
AND 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE POSSIBLY
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND FOCUSED ON THE SEABREEZE LATER IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER
SLOWLY INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND MORE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. THERE WAS SOME DECENT RAINS AT KCHS
BUT SYNOPTIC SW FLOW OVERNIGHT DOES NOT FAVOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
FOG.

A SURFACE TROUGH AND THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE
SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PROBABLY MORE COVERAGE
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL CORRIDOR THAN TODAY. WE BROAD-BRUSHED A
VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS BUT ADMIT FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND COVERAGE AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL
ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...PRODUCING SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT OVER
OUTER PORTIONS WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS MORE LIKELY CLOSE IN.

THE MARINE ZONES WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THERE WILL BE
SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND A
MODERATELY ENHANCED GRADIENT WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH. HOWEVER...
OVERALL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE DUE TO THE LIMITED OFFSHORE FETCH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO
THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN
PLACE. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...WINDS COULD CERTAINLY PEAK AT 15 OR 20 KT
AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 240136
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
936 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE WEEKEND..BEFORE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND STALLS
NEAR THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM
WELL INLAND BUT A DRY OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED OVERALL. MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. ISOLATED CONVECTION ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS AFTER 2 AM BUT CONVERGENCE PROGS ARE
WEAK AND GENERALLY PUSH ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION RISK OFFSHORE LATE
NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE WSW AND W NEARING
DAWN. ON OUR EVENING UPDATE...ONLY MINOR INITIALIZATION ADJUSTMENTS
WERE PERFORMED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC
RIDGING AND AN UPPER TROUGH STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE STRONGEST BAND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOLID WEST FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AND A
CAPPING INVERSION THAT PERSISTS INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
THESE FACTORS COULD DELAY INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE SEABREEZE WILL
BE PINNED TO THE COAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD ACTUALLY BE THE RESULT OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION PROGRESSING INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN AMPLIFYING INLAND SURFACE TROUGH SLIPPING
TOWARD THE COAST. HAVE THUS INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS THAT
COULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHERE UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS
ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A 5 PERCENT RISK ZONE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SMALL POTENTIAL. WARM WEST FLOW AND THE PINNED SEABREEZE WILL
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
LINGER OVER THE COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SLIP DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...PROVIDING THE ENERGY AND
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LIGHTER WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS INLAND...AND BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR
GENERALLY ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES WITH ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIRECTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. CONSIDERING THICKER
CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS
GENERALLY LOWER THAN THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER WIND FIELDS.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DISSIPATING BY THE
WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES NORTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND DE-AMPLIFIES THE EAST COAST TROUGH ALOFT. BOTH 12Z GFS
AND 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE POSSIBLY
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND FOCUSED ON THE SEABREEZE LATER IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER
SLOWLY INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND MORE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. THERE WAS SOME DECENT RAINS AT KCHS
BUT SYNOPTIC SW FLOW OVERNIGHT DOES NOT FAVOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
FOG.

A SURFACE TROUGH AND THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE
SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PROBABLY MORE COVERAGE
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL CORRIDOR THAN TODAY. WE BROAD-BRUSHED A
VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS BUT ADMIT FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND COVERAGE AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL
ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...PRODUCING SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT OVER
OUTER PORTIONS WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS MORE LIKELY CLOSE IN.

THE MARINE ZONES WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THERE WILL BE
SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND A
MODERATELY ENHANCED GRADIENT WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH. HOWEVER...
OVERALL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE DUE TO THE LIMITED OFFSHORE FETCH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO
THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN
PLACE. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...WINDS COULD CERTAINLY PEAK AT 15 OR 20 KT
AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 240133
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
933 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
RADAR COVERAGE BECOMING ISOLATED...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS LOW-LEVELS STABILIZE. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. CAN NOT
RULE OUT PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH 04Z. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF THE WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED THIS AT OGB/AGS...WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AT THIS HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCTS IN THE TAFS BY 20Z
THURSDAY DUE TO TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE ISSUES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 232337
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN LA COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BACK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE TROUGH HAS FORMED  ACROSS NORTHERN GA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN GA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDER HAS BEEN MORE ISOLATED...BUT
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND
APPROACH NORTH GA BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA TOMORROW...BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA. FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS WITH RATHER STRONG FROPA FOR LATE JULY. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE DECENT SHEAR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING...THOUGH TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM MAY STILL VARY
THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST AND COULD INFLUENCE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE TRENDED A BIT COOLER TEMPS IN POST FRONTAL
REGIME TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH SEVERAL FEATURES IMPACTING THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING RELATIVELY QUIET PERIODS IN
BETWEEN. HAVE ACTUALLY DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL MODELS
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA. AS A RESULT...HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND LONGWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. CHANCE POPS SUNDAY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY WEEK AND THEN EXIT QUICKLY LATE MONDAY AS SECOND FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. LONGWAVE TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS POSITION OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID WEEK...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
SECOND FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. MODELS ARE NOT PROGGING IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT...BUT DO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME SCT MVFR CEILINGS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE VICINITY OF NORTH GA ON THURSDAY...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION. WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST THEN
INCREASING TO 8 TO 10KT WITH A FEW GUSTS AFTER 14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  87  71  90 /  20  60  30  10
ATLANTA         72  85  70  87 /  20  60  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     67  78  63  83 /  30  60  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    71  84  68  87 /  30  60  20  10
COLUMBUS        73  90  73  90 /  20  60  30  20
GAINESVILLE     70  84  68  86 /  20  60  20  10
MACON           73  91  72  90 /  20  60  30  30
ROME            71  84  67  88 /  30  60  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  71  87  69  88 /  20  60  30  20
VIDALIA         76  94  75  92 /  20  60  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....31/BAKER
AVIATION...41








000
FXUS62 KFFC 232337
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN LA COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BACK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE TROUGH HAS FORMED  ACROSS NORTHERN GA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN GA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDER HAS BEEN MORE ISOLATED...BUT
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND
APPROACH NORTH GA BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA TOMORROW...BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA. FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS WITH RATHER STRONG FROPA FOR LATE JULY. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE DECENT SHEAR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING...THOUGH TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM MAY STILL VARY
THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST AND COULD INFLUENCE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE TRENDED A BIT COOLER TEMPS IN POST FRONTAL
REGIME TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH SEVERAL FEATURES IMPACTING THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING RELATIVELY QUIET PERIODS IN
BETWEEN. HAVE ACTUALLY DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL MODELS
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA. AS A RESULT...HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND LONGWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. CHANCE POPS SUNDAY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY WEEK AND THEN EXIT QUICKLY LATE MONDAY AS SECOND FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. LONGWAVE TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS POSITION OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID WEEK...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
SECOND FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. MODELS ARE NOT PROGGING IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT...BUT DO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME SCT MVFR CEILINGS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE VICINITY OF NORTH GA ON THURSDAY...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION. WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST THEN
INCREASING TO 8 TO 10KT WITH A FEW GUSTS AFTER 14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  87  71  90 /  20  60  30  10
ATLANTA         72  85  70  87 /  20  60  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     67  78  63  83 /  30  60  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    71  84  68  87 /  30  60  20  10
COLUMBUS        73  90  73  90 /  20  60  30  20
GAINESVILLE     70  84  68  86 /  20  60  20  10
MACON           73  91  72  90 /  20  60  30  30
ROME            71  84  67  88 /  30  60  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  71  87  69  88 /  20  60  30  20
VIDALIA         76  94  75  92 /  20  60  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....31/BAKER
AVIATION...41









000
FXUS62 KCHS 232328
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
728 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE WEEKEND..BEFORE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND STALLS
NEAR THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CHARLESTON AREA FIZZLED QUICKLY PRIOR TO
SUNSET THIS EVENING AND ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS
EVENING PER LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.

OVERNIGHT WE EXPECT A FEW KNOTS OF WIND TO CONTINUE AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO NC. MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC
RIDGING AND AN UPPER TROUGH STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE STRONGEST BAND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOLID WEST FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AND A
CAPPING INVERSION THAT PERSISTS INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
THESE FACTORS COULD DELAY INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE SEABREEZE WILL
BE PINNED TO THE COAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD ACTUALLY BE THE RESULT OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION PROGRESSING INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN AMPLIFYING INLAND SURFACE TROUGH SLIPPING
TOWARD THE COAST. HAVE THUS INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS THAT
COULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHERE UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS
ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A 5 PERCENT RISK ZONE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SMALL POTENTIAL. WARM WEST FLOW AND THE PINNED SEABREEZE WILL
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
LINGER OVER THE COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SLIP DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...PROVIDING THE ENERGY AND
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LIGHTER WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS INLAND...AND BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR
GENERALLY ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES WITH ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIRECTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. CONSIDERING THICKER
CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS
GENERALLY LOWER THAN THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER WIND FIELDS.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DISSIPATING BY THE
WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES NORTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND DE-AMPLIFIES THE EAST COAST TROUGH ALOFT. BOTH 12Z GFS
AND 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE POSSIBLY
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND FOCUSED ON THE SEABREEZE LATER IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER
SLOWLY INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND MORE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. THERE WAS SOME DECENT RAINS AT KCHS
BUT SYNOPTIC SW FLOW OVERNIGHT DOES NOT FAVOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
FOG.

A SURFACE TROUGH AND THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE
SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PROBABLY MORE COVERAGE
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL CORRIDOR THAN TODAY. WE BROAD-BRUSHED A
VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS BUT ADMIT FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND COVERAGE AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL
ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...PRODUCING SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT OVER OUTER
PORTIONS.

THE MARINE ZONES WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THERE WILL BE
SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND A
MODERATELY ENHANCED GRADIENT WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH. HOWEVER...
OVERALL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE DUE TO THE LIMITED OFFSHORE FETCH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO
THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN
PLACE. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...WINDS COULD CERTAINLY PEAK AT 15 OR 20 KT
AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL/WMS







000
FXUS62 KCHS 232328
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
728 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE WEEKEND..BEFORE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND STALLS
NEAR THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CHARLESTON AREA FIZZLED QUICKLY PRIOR TO
SUNSET THIS EVENING AND ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS
EVENING PER LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.

OVERNIGHT WE EXPECT A FEW KNOTS OF WIND TO CONTINUE AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO NC. MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC
RIDGING AND AN UPPER TROUGH STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE STRONGEST BAND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOLID WEST FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AND A
CAPPING INVERSION THAT PERSISTS INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
THESE FACTORS COULD DELAY INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE SEABREEZE WILL
BE PINNED TO THE COAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD ACTUALLY BE THE RESULT OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION PROGRESSING INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN AMPLIFYING INLAND SURFACE TROUGH SLIPPING
TOWARD THE COAST. HAVE THUS INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS THAT
COULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHERE UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS
ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A 5 PERCENT RISK ZONE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SMALL POTENTIAL. WARM WEST FLOW AND THE PINNED SEABREEZE WILL
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
LINGER OVER THE COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SLIP DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...PROVIDING THE ENERGY AND
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LIGHTER WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS INLAND...AND BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR
GENERALLY ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES WITH ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIRECTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. CONSIDERING THICKER
CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS
GENERALLY LOWER THAN THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER WIND FIELDS.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DISSIPATING BY THE
WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES NORTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND DE-AMPLIFIES THE EAST COAST TROUGH ALOFT. BOTH 12Z GFS
AND 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE POSSIBLY
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND FOCUSED ON THE SEABREEZE LATER IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER
SLOWLY INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND MORE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. THERE WAS SOME DECENT RAINS AT KCHS
BUT SYNOPTIC SW FLOW OVERNIGHT DOES NOT FAVOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
FOG.

A SURFACE TROUGH AND THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE
SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PROBABLY MORE COVERAGE
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL CORRIDOR THAN TODAY. WE BROAD-BRUSHED A
VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS BUT ADMIT FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND COVERAGE AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL
ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...PRODUCING SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT OVER OUTER
PORTIONS.

THE MARINE ZONES WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THERE WILL BE
SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND A
MODERATELY ENHANCED GRADIENT WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH. HOWEVER...
OVERALL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE DUE TO THE LIMITED OFFSHORE FETCH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO
THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN
PLACE. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...WINDS COULD CERTAINLY PEAK AT 15 OR 20 KT
AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL/WMS






000
FXUS62 KCAE 232226
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
626 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS BACK TO THE
WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND ERN/CNRL TN CLOSER TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA. WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ALONG/EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. MODELS SHOW
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH
DIMINISHING POPS DURING THE EARLY/LATE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S...WITH THIS BEING CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH AT AGS AND DNL
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF
THE WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
THIS AT OGB/AGS...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED VCTS IN THE TAFS BY 20Z THURSDAY DUE TO TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ISSUES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 232226
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
626 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS BACK TO THE
WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND ERN/CNRL TN CLOSER TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA. WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ALONG/EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. MODELS SHOW
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH
DIMINISHING POPS DURING THE EARLY/LATE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S...WITH THIS BEING CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH AT AGS AND DNL
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF
THE WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
THIS AT OGB/AGS...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED VCTS IN THE TAFS BY 20Z THURSDAY DUE TO TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ISSUES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 232226
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
626 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS BACK TO THE
WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND ERN/CNRL TN CLOSER TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA. WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ALONG/EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. MODELS SHOW
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH
DIMINISHING POPS DURING THE EARLY/LATE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S...WITH THIS BEING CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH AT AGS AND DNL
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF
THE WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
THIS AT OGB/AGS...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED VCTS IN THE TAFS BY 20Z THURSDAY DUE TO TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ISSUES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 232226
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
626 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS BACK TO THE
WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND ERN/CNRL TN CLOSER TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA. WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ALONG/EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. MODELS SHOW
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH
DIMINISHING POPS DURING THE EARLY/LATE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S...WITH THIS BEING CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH AT AGS AND DNL
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF
THE WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
THIS AT OGB/AGS...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED VCTS IN THE TAFS BY 20Z THURSDAY DUE TO TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ISSUES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 232005
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE WEEKEND..BEFORE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND STALLS
NEAR THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE IN THE LEE TROUGH
AND NOW ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE IS ALLOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY IN SOUTHERN SC. THE BEST
CONVERGENCE THROUGH EARLY EVENING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN SOUTHERN SC
POSSIBLY SHIFTING INLAND WITH TIME AS THE SEA BREEZE PROGRESSES
NORTHWEST AND INTERACTS WITH BOUNDARIES FROM INLAND ACTIVITY. MORE
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA...DIMINISHING
QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

OVERNIGHT WE EXPECT A FEW KNOTS OF WIND TO CONTINUE AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO NC. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC
RIDGING AND AN UPPER TROUGH STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE STRONGEST BAND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOLID WEST FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AND A
CAPPING INVERSION THAT PERSISTS INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
THESE FACTORS COULD DELAY INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE SEABREEZE WILL
BE PINNED TO THE COAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD ACTUALLY BE THE RESULT OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION PROGRESSING INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN AMPLIFYING INLAND SURFACE TROUGH SLIPPING
TOWARD THE COAST. HAVE THUS INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS THAT
COULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHERE UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS
ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A 5 PERCENT RISK ZONE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SMALL POTENTIAL. WARM WEST FLOW AND THE PINNED SEABREEZE WILL
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
LINGER OVER THE COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SLIP DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...PROVIDING THE ENERGY AND
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LIGHTER WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS INLAND...AND BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR
GENERALLY ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES WITH ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIRECTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. CONSIDERING THICKER
CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS
GENERALLY LOWER THAN THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER WIND FIELDS.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DISSIPATING BY THE
WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES NORTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND DE-AMPLIFIES THE EAST COAST TROUGH ALOFT. BOTH 12Z GFS
AND 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE POSSIBLY
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND FOCUSED ON THE SEABREEZE LATER IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER
SLOWLY INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND MORE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS TODAY IS
THE SEA BREEZE OR SOME ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT KCHS DUE
TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE INLAND TROUGH. WE MAINTAINED A VFR
FORECAST FREE OF CONVECTION AT KSAV BUT MAINTAINED VICINITY
THUNDER AT KCHS THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
HAS BEEN MARGINAL AND FARTHER TO THE NORTH SO WE DID NOT FEEL
INCLINED TO PREVAIL ANY CONVECTION UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME MORE
CLEAR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL
ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...PRODUCING SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT OVER OUTER
PORTIONS.

THE MARINE ZONES WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THERE WILL BE
SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND A
MODERATELY ENHANCED GRADIENT WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH. HOWEVER...
OVERALL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE DUE TO THE LIMITED OFFSHORE FETCH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO
THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN
PLACE. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...WINDS COULD CERTAINLY PEAK AT 15 OR 20 KT
AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL/WMS
MARINE...JRL/WMS







000
FXUS62 KCHS 232005
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE WEEKEND..BEFORE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND STALLS
NEAR THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE IN THE LEE TROUGH
AND NOW ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE IS ALLOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY IN SOUTHERN SC. THE BEST
CONVERGENCE THROUGH EARLY EVENING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN SOUTHERN SC
POSSIBLY SHIFTING INLAND WITH TIME AS THE SEA BREEZE PROGRESSES
NORTHWEST AND INTERACTS WITH BOUNDARIES FROM INLAND ACTIVITY. MORE
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA...DIMINISHING
QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

OVERNIGHT WE EXPECT A FEW KNOTS OF WIND TO CONTINUE AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO NC. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC
RIDGING AND AN UPPER TROUGH STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE STRONGEST BAND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOLID WEST FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AND A
CAPPING INVERSION THAT PERSISTS INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
THESE FACTORS COULD DELAY INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE SEABREEZE WILL
BE PINNED TO THE COAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD ACTUALLY BE THE RESULT OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION PROGRESSING INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN AMPLIFYING INLAND SURFACE TROUGH SLIPPING
TOWARD THE COAST. HAVE THUS INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS THAT
COULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHERE UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS
ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A 5 PERCENT RISK ZONE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SMALL POTENTIAL. WARM WEST FLOW AND THE PINNED SEABREEZE WILL
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
LINGER OVER THE COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SLIP DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...PROVIDING THE ENERGY AND
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LIGHTER WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS INLAND...AND BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR
GENERALLY ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES WITH ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIRECTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. CONSIDERING THICKER
CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS
GENERALLY LOWER THAN THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER WIND FIELDS.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DISSIPATING BY THE
WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES NORTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND DE-AMPLIFIES THE EAST COAST TROUGH ALOFT. BOTH 12Z GFS
AND 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE POSSIBLY
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND FOCUSED ON THE SEABREEZE LATER IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER
SLOWLY INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND MORE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS TODAY IS
THE SEA BREEZE OR SOME ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT KCHS DUE
TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE INLAND TROUGH. WE MAINTAINED A VFR
FORECAST FREE OF CONVECTION AT KSAV BUT MAINTAINED VICINITY
THUNDER AT KCHS THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
HAS BEEN MARGINAL AND FARTHER TO THE NORTH SO WE DID NOT FEEL
INCLINED TO PREVAIL ANY CONVECTION UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME MORE
CLEAR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL
ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...PRODUCING SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT OVER OUTER
PORTIONS.

THE MARINE ZONES WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THERE WILL BE
SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND A
MODERATELY ENHANCED GRADIENT WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH. HOWEVER...
OVERALL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE DUE TO THE LIMITED OFFSHORE FETCH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO
THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN
PLACE. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...WINDS COULD CERTAINLY PEAK AT 15 OR 20 KT
AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL/WMS
MARINE...JRL/WMS







000
FXUS62 KCHS 232005
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE WEEKEND..BEFORE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND STALLS
NEAR THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE IN THE LEE TROUGH
AND NOW ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE IS ALLOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY IN SOUTHERN SC. THE BEST
CONVERGENCE THROUGH EARLY EVENING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN SOUTHERN SC
POSSIBLY SHIFTING INLAND WITH TIME AS THE SEA BREEZE PROGRESSES
NORTHWEST AND INTERACTS WITH BOUNDARIES FROM INLAND ACTIVITY. MORE
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA...DIMINISHING
QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

OVERNIGHT WE EXPECT A FEW KNOTS OF WIND TO CONTINUE AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO NC. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC
RIDGING AND AN UPPER TROUGH STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE STRONGEST BAND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOLID WEST FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AND A
CAPPING INVERSION THAT PERSISTS INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
THESE FACTORS COULD DELAY INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE SEABREEZE WILL
BE PINNED TO THE COAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD ACTUALLY BE THE RESULT OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION PROGRESSING INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN AMPLIFYING INLAND SURFACE TROUGH SLIPPING
TOWARD THE COAST. HAVE THUS INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS THAT
COULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHERE UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS
ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A 5 PERCENT RISK ZONE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SMALL POTENTIAL. WARM WEST FLOW AND THE PINNED SEABREEZE WILL
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
LINGER OVER THE COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SLIP DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...PROVIDING THE ENERGY AND
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LIGHTER WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS INLAND...AND BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR
GENERALLY ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES WITH ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIRECTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. CONSIDERING THICKER
CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS
GENERALLY LOWER THAN THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER WIND FIELDS.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DISSIPATING BY THE
WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES NORTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND DE-AMPLIFIES THE EAST COAST TROUGH ALOFT. BOTH 12Z GFS
AND 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE POSSIBLY
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND FOCUSED ON THE SEABREEZE LATER IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER
SLOWLY INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND MORE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS TODAY IS
THE SEA BREEZE OR SOME ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT KCHS DUE
TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE INLAND TROUGH. WE MAINTAINED A VFR
FORECAST FREE OF CONVECTION AT KSAV BUT MAINTAINED VICINITY
THUNDER AT KCHS THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
HAS BEEN MARGINAL AND FARTHER TO THE NORTH SO WE DID NOT FEEL
INCLINED TO PREVAIL ANY CONVECTION UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME MORE
CLEAR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL
ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...PRODUCING SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT OVER OUTER
PORTIONS.

THE MARINE ZONES WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THERE WILL BE
SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND A
MODERATELY ENHANCED GRADIENT WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH. HOWEVER...
OVERALL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE DUE TO THE LIMITED OFFSHORE FETCH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO
THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN
PLACE. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...WINDS COULD CERTAINLY PEAK AT 15 OR 20 KT
AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL/WMS
MARINE...JRL/WMS







000
FXUS62 KCHS 232005
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE WEEKEND..BEFORE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND STALLS
NEAR THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE IN THE LEE TROUGH
AND NOW ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE IS ALLOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY IN SOUTHERN SC. THE BEST
CONVERGENCE THROUGH EARLY EVENING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN SOUTHERN SC
POSSIBLY SHIFTING INLAND WITH TIME AS THE SEA BREEZE PROGRESSES
NORTHWEST AND INTERACTS WITH BOUNDARIES FROM INLAND ACTIVITY. MORE
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA...DIMINISHING
QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

OVERNIGHT WE EXPECT A FEW KNOTS OF WIND TO CONTINUE AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO NC. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC
RIDGING AND AN UPPER TROUGH STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE STRONGEST BAND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOLID WEST FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AND A
CAPPING INVERSION THAT PERSISTS INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.
THESE FACTORS COULD DELAY INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE SEABREEZE WILL
BE PINNED TO THE COAST. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD ACTUALLY BE THE RESULT OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION PROGRESSING INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN AMPLIFYING INLAND SURFACE TROUGH SLIPPING
TOWARD THE COAST. HAVE THUS INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS FOLLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS THAT
COULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHERE UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS
ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED THE FORECAST AREA IN A 5 PERCENT RISK ZONE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SMALL POTENTIAL. WARM WEST FLOW AND THE PINNED SEABREEZE WILL
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
LINGER OVER THE COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SLIP DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...PROVIDING THE ENERGY AND
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LIGHTER WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS INLAND...AND BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR
GENERALLY ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES WITH ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIRECTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. CONSIDERING THICKER
CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS
GENERALLY LOWER THAN THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER WIND FIELDS.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DISSIPATING BY THE
WEEKEND...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES NORTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND DE-AMPLIFIES THE EAST COAST TROUGH ALOFT. BOTH 12Z GFS
AND 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE POSSIBLY
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND FOCUSED ON THE SEABREEZE LATER IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER
SLOWLY INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND MORE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS TODAY IS
THE SEA BREEZE OR SOME ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT KCHS DUE
TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE INLAND TROUGH. WE MAINTAINED A VFR
FORECAST FREE OF CONVECTION AT KSAV BUT MAINTAINED VICINITY
THUNDER AT KCHS THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
HAS BEEN MARGINAL AND FARTHER TO THE NORTH SO WE DID NOT FEEL
INCLINED TO PREVAIL ANY CONVECTION UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME MORE
CLEAR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL
ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...PRODUCING SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT OVER OUTER
PORTIONS.

THE MARINE ZONES WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THERE WILL BE
SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND A
MODERATELY ENHANCED GRADIENT WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH. HOWEVER...
OVERALL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE DUE TO THE LIMITED OFFSHORE FETCH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO
THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN
PLACE. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY IN REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...WINDS COULD CERTAINLY PEAK AT 15 OR 20 KT
AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL/WMS
MARINE...JRL/WMS







000
FXUS62 KFFC 231938
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
338 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN LA COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BACK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE TROUGH HAS FORMED  ACROSS NORTHERN GA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN GA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDER HAS BEEN MORE ISOLATED...BUT
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND
APPROACH NORTH GA BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA TOMORROW...BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA. FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS WITH RATHER STRONG FROPA FOR LATE JULY. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE DECENT SHEAR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING...THOUGH TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM MAY STILL VARY
THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST AND COULD INFLUENCE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE TRENDED A BIT COOLER TEMPS IN POST FRONTAL
REGIME TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH SEVERAL FEATURES IMPACTING THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING RELATIVELY QUIET PERIODS IN
BETWEEN. HAVE ACTUALLY DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL MODELS
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA. AS A RESULT...HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND LONGWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. CHANCE POPS SUNDAY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY WEEK AND THEN EXIT QUICKLY LATE MONDAY AS SECOND FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. LONGWAVE TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS POSITION OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID WEEK...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
SECOND FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN GA THIS
AFTERNOON. BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD BE UP TO THE NORTH...BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CELLS IN THE VICINITY OF ATL.
MODELS ARE NOT PROGGING IFR/LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. DO THINK THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME SCT MVFR CIGS
THO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY...WITH BETTER
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  87  71  90 /  20  60  30  10
ATLANTA         72  85  70  87 /  20  60  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     67  78  63  83 /  30  60  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    71  84  68  87 /  30  60  20  10
COLUMBUS        73  90  73  90 /  20  60  30  20
GAINESVILLE     70  84  68  86 /  20  60  20  10
MACON           73  91  72  90 /  20  60  30  30
ROME            71  84  67  88 /  30  60  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  71  87  69  88 /  20  60  30  20
VIDALIA         76  94  75  92 /  20  60  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....31/BAKER
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA






000
FXUS62 KFFC 231938
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
338 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN LA COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BACK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE TROUGH HAS FORMED  ACROSS NORTHERN GA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN GA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDER HAS BEEN MORE ISOLATED...BUT
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND
APPROACH NORTH GA BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA TOMORROW...BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA. FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS WITH RATHER STRONG FROPA FOR LATE JULY. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE DECENT SHEAR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING...THOUGH TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM MAY STILL VARY
THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST AND COULD INFLUENCE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE TRENDED A BIT COOLER TEMPS IN POST FRONTAL
REGIME TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH SEVERAL FEATURES IMPACTING THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING RELATIVELY QUIET PERIODS IN
BETWEEN. HAVE ACTUALLY DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL MODELS
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA. AS A RESULT...HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND LONGWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. CHANCE POPS SUNDAY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY WEEK AND THEN EXIT QUICKLY LATE MONDAY AS SECOND FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. LONGWAVE TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS POSITION OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID WEEK...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
SECOND FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN GA THIS
AFTERNOON. BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD BE UP TO THE NORTH...BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CELLS IN THE VICINITY OF ATL.
MODELS ARE NOT PROGGING IFR/LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. DO THINK THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME SCT MVFR CIGS
THO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY...WITH BETTER
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  87  71  90 /  20  60  30  10
ATLANTA         72  85  70  87 /  20  60  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     67  78  63  83 /  30  60  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    71  84  68  87 /  30  60  20  10
COLUMBUS        73  90  73  90 /  20  60  30  20
GAINESVILLE     70  84  68  86 /  20  60  20  10
MACON           73  91  72  90 /  20  60  30  30
ROME            71  84  67  88 /  30  60  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  71  87  69  88 /  20  60  30  20
VIDALIA         76  94  75  92 /  20  60  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....31/BAKER
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA





000
FXUS62 KCAE 231857
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
257 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS..MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE AND LONG THE COAST. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS BACK TO THE
WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND ERN/CNRL TN CLOSER TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA. WV LOOP SHOWS REIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ALONG/EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. MODELS SHOW
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH
DIMINISHING POPS DURING THE EARLY/LATE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S...WITH THIS BEING CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INT HE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70...DAYTIME HEATING HAS PRODUCED WIDELY SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER MOST AREAS.
HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH AT OGB WHICH APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE
ACTIVITY..BUT AN ISOLATE SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT EITHER
CUB/CAE. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF THE WIDESPREAD
FOG/STRATUS FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED THIS AT
OGB/AGS...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 231857
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
257 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS..MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE AND LONG THE COAST. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS BACK TO THE
WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND ERN/CNRL TN CLOSER TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA. WV LOOP SHOWS REIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ALONG/EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. MODELS SHOW
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH
DIMINISHING POPS DURING THE EARLY/LATE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S...WITH THIS BEING CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INT HE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70...DAYTIME HEATING HAS PRODUCED WIDELY SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER MOST AREAS.
HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH AT OGB WHICH APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE
ACTIVITY..BUT AN ISOLATE SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT EITHER
CUB/CAE. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF THE WIDESPREAD
FOG/STRATUS FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED THIS AT
OGB/AGS...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 231857
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
257 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS..MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE AND LONG THE COAST. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS BACK TO THE
WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND ERN/CNRL TN CLOSER TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA. WV LOOP SHOWS REIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ALONG/EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. MODELS SHOW
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH
DIMINISHING POPS DURING THE EARLY/LATE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S...WITH THIS BEING CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INT HE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70...DAYTIME HEATING HAS PRODUCED WIDELY SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER MOST AREAS.
HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH AT OGB WHICH APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE
ACTIVITY..BUT AN ISOLATE SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT EITHER
CUB/CAE. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF THE WIDESPREAD
FOG/STRATUS FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED THIS AT
OGB/AGS...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 231857
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
257 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS..MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE AND LONG THE COAST. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS BACK TO THE
WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND ERN/CNRL TN CLOSER TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA. WV LOOP SHOWS REIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ALONG/EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. MODELS SHOW
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH
DIMINISHING POPS DURING THE EARLY/LATE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S...WITH THIS BEING CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INT HE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70...DAYTIME HEATING HAS PRODUCED WIDELY SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER MOST AREAS.
HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH AT OGB WHICH APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE
ACTIVITY..BUT AN ISOLATE SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT EITHER
CUB/CAE. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF THE WIDESPREAD
FOG/STRATUS FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED THIS AT
OGB/AGS...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCHS 231801
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
201 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST
FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL THEN STALL OUT
OVER OR NEAR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT OVER LOUISIANA WHILE AN
ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EAST. A PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH
EXISTS ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND SC MIDLANDS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND STRONG DIABATIC HEATING THE CUMULUS
FIELD HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED IN ITS VICINITY. INITIALLY THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS INLAND AREAS
CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH CONVERGENCE. A BIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
THE SEA BREEZE COULD COME INTO PLAY. WE ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW
INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME
SHOWERS COULD SKIRT FAR INLAND AREAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT
BETTER CHANCES WILL COME OVER THE MORE UNSTABLE ATLANTIC...SOME OF
WHICH COULD SKIRT THE CENTRAL SC COAST. LOWS LIKELY A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL GIVEN THE SLIGHT SW BREEZE...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S
INLAND AND CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED AND ROBUST 594-596
DAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND SW STATES...WITH ANOTHER BUT SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND MORE COMPACT ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA. IN BETWEEN WE/LL FIND A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SE PART OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL
DAMPEN OUT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WELL
PRONOUNCED NE-SW ALIGNED TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED INLAND FROM THE
LOCAL REGION THURSDAY...IT BECOMES NUDGED A LITTLE CLOSER TO US ON
FRIDAY...THEN IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED INLAND ON
SATURDAY. MEANTIME...THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC ALONG
28-30N.

FOR THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS...
THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IN THE LOWER
MS VALLEY FROM TODAY WILL LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
DAY...IN SYNC WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH.
THAT ALONG WITH 25-35 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WHERE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS ENHANCED WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.
HOWEVER...WITH A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE AND POOR
LAPSE RATES THIS IS A LOW END PROBABILITY. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON T-STORM
INITIATION UNTIL THE CAP BREAKS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...SHOWING
POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST NW TIER. THE DEEP
WESTERLIES WILL HOLD THE SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE AND WILL
EASILY BOOST TEMPS TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS IN OVER A WEEK...WITH
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE WITHIN THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA A
SOLID 30-50 POPS WILL BE FORECAST. THERE IS MORE INLAND PENETRATION
TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH A LITTLE LESS OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
VERTICAL...AND THAT ALONG WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. POOR LAPSE
RATES...LESS WIND FIELDS AND A LOWER AMOUNT OF INSOLATION POINTS
TOWARD VERY LOW...BUT NOT QUITE ZERO RISK...OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WHAT/S LEFT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
OR DIFFUSE STATE...BUT WE STILL MIGHT SEE ONE MORE WEAK PERTURBATION
ALOFT. THAT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED POPS YET AGAIN. AN
EXPANSION OF THICKNESS...A SUBTLE RISE TO HEIGHTS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM
THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS TODAY IS
THE SEA BREEZE OR SOME ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT KCHS DUE
TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE INLAND TROUGH. WE MAINTAINED A VFR
FORECAST FREE OF CONVECTION AT KSAV BUT MAINTAINED VICINITY
THUNDER AT KCHS THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
HAS BEEN MARGINAL AND FARTHER TO THE NORTH SO WE DID NOT FEEL
INCLINED TO PREVAIL ANY CONVECTION UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME MORE
CLEAR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME WIND SURGING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND THEN TONIGHT DUE TO
NOCTURNAL SURGING BUT WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS MAINLY 3 FT OR LESS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A
WEST/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND
SOUTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND OVER THE SE STATES.
THERE WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND MODEST PINCHING WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH...BUT OVERALL NOTHING
HIGHER THAN 10 OR 15 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR...AND MAYBE UP TO 15 OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY 20 KT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO THE LIMITED
OFFSHORE FETCH...PEAKING AT 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO THE
NE...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH HOLDS IN PLACE. PRETTY TOUGH TO
GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
CERTAINLY COULD SEE WINDS UP NEAR 15 OR 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 231801
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
201 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST
FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL THEN STALL OUT
OVER OR NEAR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT OVER LOUISIANA WHILE AN
ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EAST. A PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH
EXISTS ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND SC MIDLANDS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND STRONG DIABATIC HEATING THE CUMULUS
FIELD HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED IN ITS VICINITY. INITIALLY THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS INLAND AREAS
CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH CONVERGENCE. A BIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
THE SEA BREEZE COULD COME INTO PLAY. WE ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW
INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME
SHOWERS COULD SKIRT FAR INLAND AREAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT
BETTER CHANCES WILL COME OVER THE MORE UNSTABLE ATLANTIC...SOME OF
WHICH COULD SKIRT THE CENTRAL SC COAST. LOWS LIKELY A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL GIVEN THE SLIGHT SW BREEZE...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S
INLAND AND CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED AND ROBUST 594-596
DAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND SW STATES...WITH ANOTHER BUT SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND MORE COMPACT ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA. IN BETWEEN WE/LL FIND A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SE PART OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL
DAMPEN OUT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WELL
PRONOUNCED NE-SW ALIGNED TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED INLAND FROM THE
LOCAL REGION THURSDAY...IT BECOMES NUDGED A LITTLE CLOSER TO US ON
FRIDAY...THEN IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED INLAND ON
SATURDAY. MEANTIME...THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC ALONG
28-30N.

FOR THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS...
THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IN THE LOWER
MS VALLEY FROM TODAY WILL LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
DAY...IN SYNC WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH.
THAT ALONG WITH 25-35 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WHERE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS ENHANCED WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.
HOWEVER...WITH A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE AND POOR
LAPSE RATES THIS IS A LOW END PROBABILITY. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON T-STORM
INITIATION UNTIL THE CAP BREAKS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...SHOWING
POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST NW TIER. THE DEEP
WESTERLIES WILL HOLD THE SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE AND WILL
EASILY BOOST TEMPS TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS IN OVER A WEEK...WITH
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE WITHIN THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA A
SOLID 30-50 POPS WILL BE FORECAST. THERE IS MORE INLAND PENETRATION
TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH A LITTLE LESS OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
VERTICAL...AND THAT ALONG WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. POOR LAPSE
RATES...LESS WIND FIELDS AND A LOWER AMOUNT OF INSOLATION POINTS
TOWARD VERY LOW...BUT NOT QUITE ZERO RISK...OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WHAT/S LEFT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
OR DIFFUSE STATE...BUT WE STILL MIGHT SEE ONE MORE WEAK PERTURBATION
ALOFT. THAT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED POPS YET AGAIN. AN
EXPANSION OF THICKNESS...A SUBTLE RISE TO HEIGHTS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM
THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS TODAY IS
THE SEA BREEZE OR SOME ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AT KCHS DUE
TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE INLAND TROUGH. WE MAINTAINED A VFR
FORECAST FREE OF CONVECTION AT KSAV BUT MAINTAINED VICINITY
THUNDER AT KCHS THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
HAS BEEN MARGINAL AND FARTHER TO THE NORTH SO WE DID NOT FEEL
INCLINED TO PREVAIL ANY CONVECTION UNTIL THE TRENDS BECOME MORE
CLEAR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME WIND SURGING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND THEN TONIGHT DUE TO
NOCTURNAL SURGING BUT WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS MAINLY 3 FT OR LESS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A
WEST/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND
SOUTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND OVER THE SE STATES.
THERE WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND MODEST PINCHING WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH...BUT OVERALL NOTHING
HIGHER THAN 10 OR 15 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR...AND MAYBE UP TO 15 OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY 20 KT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO THE LIMITED
OFFSHORE FETCH...PEAKING AT 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO THE
NE...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH HOLDS IN PLACE. PRETTY TOUGH TO
GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
CERTAINLY COULD SEE WINDS UP NEAR 15 OR 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KFFC 231738
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE LA COAST THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN METRO AREA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR LOOK PRETTY GOOD WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE OF STORMS REMAINING ISOLD TO SCT. 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWS HIGH PWATS AND BL WINDS BELOW 15KT...SO ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WHILE THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GA. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA
THURSDAY ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
INCREASE CHANCES OF TSTORMS TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
CWA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WE DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE.

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH SEVERAL FEATURES IMPACTING THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING RELATIVELY QUIET PERIODS IN
BETWEEN. HAVE ACTUALLY DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL MODELS
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA. AS A RESULT...HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND LONGWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. CHANCE POPS SUNDAY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY WEEK AND THEN EXIT QUICKLY LATE MONDAY AS SECOND FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. LONGWAVE TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS POSITION OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID WEEK...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
SECOND FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

31


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN GA THIS
AFTERNOON. BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD BE UP TO THE NORTH...BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CELLS IN THE VICINITY OF ATL.
MODELS ARE NOT PROGGING IFR/LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. DO THINK THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME SCT MVFR CIGS
THO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY...WITH BETTER
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  70  89  70 /  30  20  60  30
ATLANTA         88  71  87  71 /  30  20  60  30
BLAIRSVILLE     80  66  82  64 /  40  30  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    87  69  87  68 /  40  30  60  20
COLUMBUS        91  72  90  73 /  30  20  60  30
GAINESVILLE     86  70  87  69 /  40  20  60  20
MACON           91  72  91  72 /  30  20  60  30
ROME            87  70  87  68 /  50  30  60  20
PEACHTREE CITY  89  70  87  69 /  30  20  60  30
VIDALIA         93  74  94  74 /  30  20  60  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 231738
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE LA COAST THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN METRO AREA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR LOOK PRETTY GOOD WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE OF STORMS REMAINING ISOLD TO SCT. 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWS HIGH PWATS AND BL WINDS BELOW 15KT...SO ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WHILE THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GA. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA
THURSDAY ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
INCREASE CHANCES OF TSTORMS TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
CWA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WE DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE.

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH SEVERAL FEATURES IMPACTING THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING RELATIVELY QUIET PERIODS IN
BETWEEN. HAVE ACTUALLY DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL MODELS
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA. AS A RESULT...HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND LONGWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. CHANCE POPS SUNDAY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY WEEK AND THEN EXIT QUICKLY LATE MONDAY AS SECOND FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. LONGWAVE TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS POSITION OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID WEEK...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
SECOND FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

31


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN GA THIS
AFTERNOON. BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD BE UP TO THE NORTH...BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CELLS IN THE VICINITY OF ATL.
MODELS ARE NOT PROGGING IFR/LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. DO THINK THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME SCT MVFR CIGS
THO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY...WITH BETTER
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  70  89  70 /  30  20  60  30
ATLANTA         88  71  87  71 /  30  20  60  30
BLAIRSVILLE     80  66  82  64 /  40  30  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    87  69  87  68 /  40  30  60  20
COLUMBUS        91  72  90  73 /  30  20  60  30
GAINESVILLE     86  70  87  69 /  40  20  60  20
MACON           91  72  91  72 /  30  20  60  30
ROME            87  70  87  68 /  50  30  60  20
PEACHTREE CITY  89  70  87  69 /  30  20  60  30
VIDALIA         93  74  94  74 /  30  20  60  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 231738
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE LA COAST THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN METRO AREA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR LOOK PRETTY GOOD WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE OF STORMS REMAINING ISOLD TO SCT. 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWS HIGH PWATS AND BL WINDS BELOW 15KT...SO ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WHILE THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GA. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA
THURSDAY ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
INCREASE CHANCES OF TSTORMS TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
CWA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WE DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE.

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH SEVERAL FEATURES IMPACTING THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING RELATIVELY QUIET PERIODS IN
BETWEEN. HAVE ACTUALLY DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL MODELS
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA. AS A RESULT...HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND LONGWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. CHANCE POPS SUNDAY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY WEEK AND THEN EXIT QUICKLY LATE MONDAY AS SECOND FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. LONGWAVE TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS POSITION OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID WEEK...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
SECOND FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

31


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN GA THIS
AFTERNOON. BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD BE UP TO THE NORTH...BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CELLS IN THE VICINITY OF ATL.
MODELS ARE NOT PROGGING IFR/LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. DO THINK THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME SCT MVFR CIGS
THO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY...WITH BETTER
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  70  89  70 /  30  20  60  30
ATLANTA         88  71  87  71 /  30  20  60  30
BLAIRSVILLE     80  66  82  64 /  40  30  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    87  69  87  68 /  40  30  60  20
COLUMBUS        91  72  90  73 /  30  20  60  30
GAINESVILLE     86  70  87  69 /  40  20  60  20
MACON           91  72  91  72 /  30  20  60  30
ROME            87  70  87  68 /  50  30  60  20
PEACHTREE CITY  89  70  87  69 /  30  20  60  30
VIDALIA         93  74  94  74 /  30  20  60  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 231738
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE LA COAST THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN METRO AREA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR LOOK PRETTY GOOD WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE OF STORMS REMAINING ISOLD TO SCT. 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWS HIGH PWATS AND BL WINDS BELOW 15KT...SO ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WHILE THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GA. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA
THURSDAY ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
INCREASE CHANCES OF TSTORMS TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
CWA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WE DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE.

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH SEVERAL FEATURES IMPACTING THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING RELATIVELY QUIET PERIODS IN
BETWEEN. HAVE ACTUALLY DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL MODELS
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA. AS A RESULT...HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND LONGWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. CHANCE POPS SUNDAY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY WEEK AND THEN EXIT QUICKLY LATE MONDAY AS SECOND FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. LONGWAVE TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS POSITION OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID WEEK...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
SECOND FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

31


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN GA THIS
AFTERNOON. BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD BE UP TO THE NORTH...BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CELLS IN THE VICINITY OF ATL.
MODELS ARE NOT PROGGING IFR/LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. DO THINK THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME SCT MVFR CIGS
THO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY...WITH BETTER
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  70  89  70 /  30  20  60  30
ATLANTA         88  71  87  71 /  30  20  60  30
BLAIRSVILLE     80  66  82  64 /  40  30  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    87  69  87  68 /  40  30  60  20
COLUMBUS        91  72  90  73 /  30  20  60  30
GAINESVILLE     86  70  87  69 /  40  20  60  20
MACON           91  72  91  72 /  30  20  60  30
ROME            87  70  87  68 /  50  30  60  20
PEACHTREE CITY  89  70  87  69 /  30  20  60  30
VIDALIA         93  74  94  74 /  30  20  60  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 231515
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1115 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST
FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL THEN STALL OUT
OVER OR NEAR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT OVER LOUISIANA WHILE AN
ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EAST. A PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH
EXISTS ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND SC MIDLANDS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND STRONG DIABATIC HEATING THE CUMULUS
FIELD HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED IN ITS VICINITY. INITIALLY THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS INLAND AREAS
CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH CONVERGENCE. A BIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
THE SEA BREEZE COULD COME INTO PLAY. WE ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW
INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME
SHOWERS COULD SKIRT FAR INLAND AREAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT
BETTER CHANCES WILL COME OVER THE MORE UNSTABLE ATLANTIC...SOME OF
WHICH COULD SKIRT THE CENTRAL SC COAST. LOWS LIKELY A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL GIVEN THE SLIGHT SW BREEZE...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S
INLAND AND CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED AND ROBUST 594-596
DAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND SW STATES...WITH ANOTHER BUT SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND MORE COMPACT ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA. IN BETWEEN WE/LL FIND A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SE PART OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL
DAMPEN OUT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WELL
PRONOUNCED NE-SW ALIGNED TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED INLAND FROM THE
LOCAL REGION THURSDAY...IT BECOMES NUDGED A LITTLE CLOSER TO US ON
FRIDAY...THEN IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED INLAND ON
SATURDAY. MEANTIME...THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC ALONG
28-30N.

FOR THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS...
THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IN THE LOWER
MS VALLEY FROM TODAY WILL LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
DAY...IN SYNC WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH.
THAT ALONG WITH 25-35 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WHERE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS ENHANCED WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.
HOWEVER...WITH A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE AND POOR
LAPSE RATES THIS IS A LOW END PROBABILITY. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON T-STORM
INITIATION UNTIL THE CAP BREAKS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...SHOWING
POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST NW TIER. THE DEEP
WESTERLIES WILL HOLD THE SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE AND WILL
EASILY BOOST TEMPS TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS IN OVER A WEEK...WITH
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE WITHIN THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA A
SOLID 30-50 POPS WILL BE FORECAST. THERE IS MORE INLAND PENETRATION
TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH A LITTLE LESS OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
VERTICAL...AND THAT ALONG WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. POOR LAPSE
RATES...LESS WIND FIELDS AND A LOWER AMOUNT OF INSOLATION POINTS
TOWARD VERY LOW...BUT NOT QUITE ZERO RISK...OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WHAT/S LEFT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
OR DIFFUSE STATE...BUT WE STILL MIGHT SEE ONE MORE WEAK PERTURBATION
ALOFT. THAT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED POPS YET AGAIN. AN
EXPANSION OF THICKNESS...A SUBTLE RISE TO HEIGHTS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM
THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS TODAY IS
THE SEA BREEZE...THUS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RULE. SHOULD ANY DIRECT IMPACTS OCCUR FROM SHRA OR
TSRA THEN BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAN OCCUR...MAINLY FROM ABOUT
18-23Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME WIND SURGING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND THEN TONIGHT DUE TO
NOCTURNAL SURGING BUT WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS MAINLY 3 FT OR LESS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A
WEST/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND
SOUTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND OVER THE SE STATES.
THERE WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND MODEST PINCHING WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH...BUT OVERALL NOTHING
HIGHER THAN 10 OR 15 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR...AND MAYBE UP TO 15 OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY 20 KT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO THE LIMITED
OFFSHORE FETCH...PEAKING AT 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO THE
NE...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH HOLDS IN PLACE. PRETTY TOUGH TO
GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
CERTAINLY COULD SEE WINDS UP NEAR 15 OR 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 231515
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1115 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST
FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL THEN STALL OUT
OVER OR NEAR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT OVER LOUISIANA WHILE AN
ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EAST. A PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH
EXISTS ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND SC MIDLANDS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND STRONG DIABATIC HEATING THE CUMULUS
FIELD HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED IN ITS VICINITY. INITIALLY THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS INLAND AREAS
CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH CONVERGENCE. A BIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
THE SEA BREEZE COULD COME INTO PLAY. WE ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW
INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME
SHOWERS COULD SKIRT FAR INLAND AREAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT
BETTER CHANCES WILL COME OVER THE MORE UNSTABLE ATLANTIC...SOME OF
WHICH COULD SKIRT THE CENTRAL SC COAST. LOWS LIKELY A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL GIVEN THE SLIGHT SW BREEZE...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S
INLAND AND CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED AND ROBUST 594-596
DAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND SW STATES...WITH ANOTHER BUT SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND MORE COMPACT ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA. IN BETWEEN WE/LL FIND A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SE PART OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL
DAMPEN OUT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WELL
PRONOUNCED NE-SW ALIGNED TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED INLAND FROM THE
LOCAL REGION THURSDAY...IT BECOMES NUDGED A LITTLE CLOSER TO US ON
FRIDAY...THEN IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED INLAND ON
SATURDAY. MEANTIME...THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC ALONG
28-30N.

FOR THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS...
THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IN THE LOWER
MS VALLEY FROM TODAY WILL LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
DAY...IN SYNC WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH.
THAT ALONG WITH 25-35 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WHERE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS ENHANCED WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.
HOWEVER...WITH A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE AND POOR
LAPSE RATES THIS IS A LOW END PROBABILITY. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON T-STORM
INITIATION UNTIL THE CAP BREAKS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...SHOWING
POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST NW TIER. THE DEEP
WESTERLIES WILL HOLD THE SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE AND WILL
EASILY BOOST TEMPS TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS IN OVER A WEEK...WITH
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE WITHIN THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA A
SOLID 30-50 POPS WILL BE FORECAST. THERE IS MORE INLAND PENETRATION
TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH A LITTLE LESS OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
VERTICAL...AND THAT ALONG WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. POOR LAPSE
RATES...LESS WIND FIELDS AND A LOWER AMOUNT OF INSOLATION POINTS
TOWARD VERY LOW...BUT NOT QUITE ZERO RISK...OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WHAT/S LEFT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
OR DIFFUSE STATE...BUT WE STILL MIGHT SEE ONE MORE WEAK PERTURBATION
ALOFT. THAT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED POPS YET AGAIN. AN
EXPANSION OF THICKNESS...A SUBTLE RISE TO HEIGHTS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM
THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS TODAY IS
THE SEA BREEZE...THUS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RULE. SHOULD ANY DIRECT IMPACTS OCCUR FROM SHRA OR
TSRA THEN BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAN OCCUR...MAINLY FROM ABOUT
18-23Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME WIND SURGING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND THEN TONIGHT DUE TO
NOCTURNAL SURGING BUT WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS MAINLY 3 FT OR LESS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A
WEST/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND
SOUTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND OVER THE SE STATES.
THERE WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND MODEST PINCHING WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH...BUT OVERALL NOTHING
HIGHER THAN 10 OR 15 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR...AND MAYBE UP TO 15 OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY 20 KT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO THE LIMITED
OFFSHORE FETCH...PEAKING AT 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO THE
NE...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH HOLDS IN PLACE. PRETTY TOUGH TO
GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
CERTAINLY COULD SEE WINDS UP NEAR 15 OR 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 231515
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1115 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST
FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL THEN STALL OUT
OVER OR NEAR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT OVER LOUISIANA WHILE AN
ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EAST. A PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH
EXISTS ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND SC MIDLANDS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND STRONG DIABATIC HEATING THE CUMULUS
FIELD HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED IN ITS VICINITY. INITIALLY THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS INLAND AREAS
CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH CONVERGENCE. A BIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
THE SEA BREEZE COULD COME INTO PLAY. WE ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW
INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME
SHOWERS COULD SKIRT FAR INLAND AREAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT
BETTER CHANCES WILL COME OVER THE MORE UNSTABLE ATLANTIC...SOME OF
WHICH COULD SKIRT THE CENTRAL SC COAST. LOWS LIKELY A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL GIVEN THE SLIGHT SW BREEZE...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S
INLAND AND CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED AND ROBUST 594-596
DAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND SW STATES...WITH ANOTHER BUT SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND MORE COMPACT ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA. IN BETWEEN WE/LL FIND A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SE PART OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL
DAMPEN OUT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WELL
PRONOUNCED NE-SW ALIGNED TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED INLAND FROM THE
LOCAL REGION THURSDAY...IT BECOMES NUDGED A LITTLE CLOSER TO US ON
FRIDAY...THEN IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED INLAND ON
SATURDAY. MEANTIME...THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC ALONG
28-30N.

FOR THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS...
THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IN THE LOWER
MS VALLEY FROM TODAY WILL LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
DAY...IN SYNC WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH.
THAT ALONG WITH 25-35 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WHERE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS ENHANCED WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.
HOWEVER...WITH A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE AND POOR
LAPSE RATES THIS IS A LOW END PROBABILITY. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON T-STORM
INITIATION UNTIL THE CAP BREAKS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...SHOWING
POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST NW TIER. THE DEEP
WESTERLIES WILL HOLD THE SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE AND WILL
EASILY BOOST TEMPS TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS IN OVER A WEEK...WITH
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE WITHIN THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA A
SOLID 30-50 POPS WILL BE FORECAST. THERE IS MORE INLAND PENETRATION
TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH A LITTLE LESS OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
VERTICAL...AND THAT ALONG WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. POOR LAPSE
RATES...LESS WIND FIELDS AND A LOWER AMOUNT OF INSOLATION POINTS
TOWARD VERY LOW...BUT NOT QUITE ZERO RISK...OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WHAT/S LEFT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
OR DIFFUSE STATE...BUT WE STILL MIGHT SEE ONE MORE WEAK PERTURBATION
ALOFT. THAT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED POPS YET AGAIN. AN
EXPANSION OF THICKNESS...A SUBTLE RISE TO HEIGHTS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM
THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS TODAY IS
THE SEA BREEZE...THUS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RULE. SHOULD ANY DIRECT IMPACTS OCCUR FROM SHRA OR
TSRA THEN BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAN OCCUR...MAINLY FROM ABOUT
18-23Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME WIND SURGING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND THEN TONIGHT DUE TO
NOCTURNAL SURGING BUT WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS MAINLY 3 FT OR LESS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A
WEST/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND
SOUTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND OVER THE SE STATES.
THERE WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND MODEST PINCHING WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH...BUT OVERALL NOTHING
HIGHER THAN 10 OR 15 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR...AND MAYBE UP TO 15 OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY 20 KT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO THE LIMITED
OFFSHORE FETCH...PEAKING AT 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO THE
NE...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH HOLDS IN PLACE. PRETTY TOUGH TO
GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
CERTAINLY COULD SEE WINDS UP NEAR 15 OR 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 231515
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1115 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST
FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL THEN STALL OUT
OVER OR NEAR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT OVER LOUISIANA WHILE AN
ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EAST. A PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH
EXISTS ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND SC MIDLANDS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND STRONG DIABATIC HEATING THE CUMULUS
FIELD HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED IN ITS VICINITY. INITIALLY THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS INLAND AREAS
CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH CONVERGENCE. A BIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
THE SEA BREEZE COULD COME INTO PLAY. WE ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW
INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME
SHOWERS COULD SKIRT FAR INLAND AREAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT
BETTER CHANCES WILL COME OVER THE MORE UNSTABLE ATLANTIC...SOME OF
WHICH COULD SKIRT THE CENTRAL SC COAST. LOWS LIKELY A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL GIVEN THE SLIGHT SW BREEZE...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S
INLAND AND CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED AND ROBUST 594-596
DAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND SW STATES...WITH ANOTHER BUT SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND MORE COMPACT ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA. IN BETWEEN WE/LL FIND A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SE PART OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL
DAMPEN OUT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WELL
PRONOUNCED NE-SW ALIGNED TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED INLAND FROM THE
LOCAL REGION THURSDAY...IT BECOMES NUDGED A LITTLE CLOSER TO US ON
FRIDAY...THEN IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED INLAND ON
SATURDAY. MEANTIME...THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC ALONG
28-30N.

FOR THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS...
THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IN THE LOWER
MS VALLEY FROM TODAY WILL LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
DAY...IN SYNC WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH.
THAT ALONG WITH 25-35 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WHERE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS ENHANCED WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.
HOWEVER...WITH A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE AND POOR
LAPSE RATES THIS IS A LOW END PROBABILITY. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON T-STORM
INITIATION UNTIL THE CAP BREAKS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...SHOWING
POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST NW TIER. THE DEEP
WESTERLIES WILL HOLD THE SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE AND WILL
EASILY BOOST TEMPS TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS IN OVER A WEEK...WITH
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE WITHIN THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA A
SOLID 30-50 POPS WILL BE FORECAST. THERE IS MORE INLAND PENETRATION
TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH A LITTLE LESS OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
VERTICAL...AND THAT ALONG WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. POOR LAPSE
RATES...LESS WIND FIELDS AND A LOWER AMOUNT OF INSOLATION POINTS
TOWARD VERY LOW...BUT NOT QUITE ZERO RISK...OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WHAT/S LEFT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
OR DIFFUSE STATE...BUT WE STILL MIGHT SEE ONE MORE WEAK PERTURBATION
ALOFT. THAT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED POPS YET AGAIN. AN
EXPANSION OF THICKNESS...A SUBTLE RISE TO HEIGHTS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM
THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS TODAY IS
THE SEA BREEZE...THUS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RULE. SHOULD ANY DIRECT IMPACTS OCCUR FROM SHRA OR
TSRA THEN BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAN OCCUR...MAINLY FROM ABOUT
18-23Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME WIND SURGING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND THEN TONIGHT DUE TO
NOCTURNAL SURGING BUT WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS MAINLY 3 FT OR LESS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A
WEST/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND
SOUTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND OVER THE SE STATES.
THERE WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND MODEST PINCHING WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH...BUT OVERALL NOTHING
HIGHER THAN 10 OR 15 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR...AND MAYBE UP TO 15 OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY 20 KT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO THE LIMITED
OFFSHORE FETCH...PEAKING AT 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO THE
NE...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH HOLDS IN PLACE. PRETTY TOUGH TO
GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
CERTAINLY COULD SEE WINDS UP NEAR 15 OR 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KFFC 231452
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1052 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014



.UPDATE...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE LA COAST THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN METRO AREA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR LOOK PRETTY GOOD WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE OF STORMS REMAINING ISOLD TO SCT. 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWS HIGH PWATS AND BL WINDS BELOW 15KT...SO ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WHILE THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GA. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA
THURSDAY ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
INCREASE CHANCES OF TSTORMS TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
CWA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WE DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE.

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH SEVERAL FEATURES IMPACTING THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING RELATIVELY QUIET PERIODS IN
BETWEEN. HAVE ACTUALLY DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL MODELS
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA. AS A RESULT...HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND LONGWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. CHANCE POPS SUNDAY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY WEEK AND THEN EXIT QUICKLY LATE MONDAY AS SECOND FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. LONGWAVE TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS POSITION OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID WEEK...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
SECOND FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

31

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GA. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
THUNDER DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
GA. THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. VFR SKIES
CURRENTLY OVER THE TAF SITES AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT
WITH MIXING THEY WILL COME AROUND TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN LIGHT IN
SPEED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  70  89  70 /  30  30  60  40
ATLANTA         88  71  87  71 /  30  30  60  20
BLAIRSVILLE     80  66  82  64 /  40  40  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    87  69  87  68 /  40  40  60  20
COLUMBUS        91  72  90  73 /  30  20  60  30
GAINESVILLE     86  70  87  69 /  40  30  60  30
MACON           91  72  91  72 /  30  20  60  40
ROME            87  70  87  68 /  50  40  60  10
PEACHTREE CITY  89  70  87  69 /  30  20  60  30
VIDALIA         93  74  94  74 /  30  20  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KFFC 231452
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1052 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014



.UPDATE...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE LA COAST THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN METRO AREA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR LOOK PRETTY GOOD WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE OF STORMS REMAINING ISOLD TO SCT. 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWS HIGH PWATS AND BL WINDS BELOW 15KT...SO ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WHILE THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GA. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA
THURSDAY ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
INCREASE CHANCES OF TSTORMS TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
CWA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WE DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE.

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH SEVERAL FEATURES IMPACTING THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING RELATIVELY QUIET PERIODS IN
BETWEEN. HAVE ACTUALLY DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL MODELS
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA. AS A RESULT...HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND LONGWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. CHANCE POPS SUNDAY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY WEEK AND THEN EXIT QUICKLY LATE MONDAY AS SECOND FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. LONGWAVE TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS POSITION OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID WEEK...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
SECOND FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

31

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GA. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
THUNDER DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
GA. THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. VFR SKIES
CURRENTLY OVER THE TAF SITES AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT
WITH MIXING THEY WILL COME AROUND TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN LIGHT IN
SPEED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  70  89  70 /  30  30  60  40
ATLANTA         88  71  87  71 /  30  30  60  20
BLAIRSVILLE     80  66  82  64 /  40  40  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    87  69  87  68 /  40  40  60  20
COLUMBUS        91  72  90  73 /  30  20  60  30
GAINESVILLE     86  70  87  69 /  40  30  60  30
MACON           91  72  91  72 /  30  20  60  40
ROME            87  70  87  68 /  50  40  60  10
PEACHTREE CITY  89  70  87  69 /  30  20  60  30
VIDALIA         93  74  94  74 /  30  20  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KFFC 231452
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1052 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014



.UPDATE...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE LA COAST THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN METRO AREA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR LOOK PRETTY GOOD WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE OF STORMS REMAINING ISOLD TO SCT. 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWS HIGH PWATS AND BL WINDS BELOW 15KT...SO ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WHILE THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GA. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA
THURSDAY ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
INCREASE CHANCES OF TSTORMS TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
CWA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WE DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE.

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH SEVERAL FEATURES IMPACTING THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING RELATIVELY QUIET PERIODS IN
BETWEEN. HAVE ACTUALLY DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL MODELS
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA. AS A RESULT...HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND LONGWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. CHANCE POPS SUNDAY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY WEEK AND THEN EXIT QUICKLY LATE MONDAY AS SECOND FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. LONGWAVE TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS POSITION OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID WEEK...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
SECOND FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

31

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GA. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
THUNDER DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
GA. THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. VFR SKIES
CURRENTLY OVER THE TAF SITES AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT
WITH MIXING THEY WILL COME AROUND TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN LIGHT IN
SPEED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  70  89  70 /  30  30  60  40
ATLANTA         88  71  87  71 /  30  30  60  20
BLAIRSVILLE     80  66  82  64 /  40  40  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    87  69  87  68 /  40  40  60  20
COLUMBUS        91  72  90  73 /  30  20  60  30
GAINESVILLE     86  70  87  69 /  40  30  60  30
MACON           91  72  91  72 /  30  20  60  40
ROME            87  70  87  68 /  50  40  60  10
PEACHTREE CITY  89  70  87  69 /  30  20  60  30
VIDALIA         93  74  94  74 /  30  20  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KFFC 231452
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1052 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014



.UPDATE...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE LA COAST THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN METRO AREA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR LOOK PRETTY GOOD WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE OF STORMS REMAINING ISOLD TO SCT. 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWS HIGH PWATS AND BL WINDS BELOW 15KT...SO ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WHILE THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GA. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA
THURSDAY ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
INCREASE CHANCES OF TSTORMS TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
CWA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WE DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE.

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH SEVERAL FEATURES IMPACTING THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING RELATIVELY QUIET PERIODS IN
BETWEEN. HAVE ACTUALLY DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL MODELS
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA. AS A RESULT...HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND LONGWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. CHANCE POPS SUNDAY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY WEEK AND THEN EXIT QUICKLY LATE MONDAY AS SECOND FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. LONGWAVE TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS POSITION OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID WEEK...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
SECOND FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

31

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GA. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
THUNDER DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
GA. THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. VFR SKIES
CURRENTLY OVER THE TAF SITES AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT
WITH MIXING THEY WILL COME AROUND TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN LIGHT IN
SPEED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  70  89  70 /  30  30  60  40
ATLANTA         88  71  87  71 /  30  30  60  20
BLAIRSVILLE     80  66  82  64 /  40  40  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    87  69  87  68 /  40  40  60  20
COLUMBUS        91  72  90  73 /  30  20  60  30
GAINESVILLE     86  70  87  69 /  40  30  60  30
MACON           91  72  91  72 /  30  20  60  40
ROME            87  70  87  68 /  50  40  60  10
PEACHTREE CITY  89  70  87  69 /  30  20  60  30
VIDALIA         93  74  94  74 /  30  20  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 231437
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1037 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST AREA NEAR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES...BUT SOME DRYING EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER GEORGIA ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. AIR MASS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS WEAK. LOW CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE/WEAK WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0
INCHES AT TIMES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOW TO MODERATE. KEPT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
TO THE EAST. AIR MASS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE STRONGER. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAVE LIFTED AND ONLY SCATTERED LOWER
CLOUDS REMAIN. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES INT HE LOWER/MIDDLE 70 AND DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT CUT
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE FROM INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN ONCE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG AND SOME STRATUS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION REMAINS INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT
AT/NEAR THE TAF SITES REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 231437
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1037 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST AREA NEAR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES...BUT SOME DRYING EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER GEORGIA ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. AIR MASS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS WEAK. LOW CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE/WEAK WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0
INCHES AT TIMES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOW TO MODERATE. KEPT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
TO THE EAST. AIR MASS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE STRONGER. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAVE LIFTED AND ONLY SCATTERED LOWER
CLOUDS REMAIN. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES INT HE LOWER/MIDDLE 70 AND DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT CUT
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE FROM INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN ONCE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG AND SOME STRATUS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION REMAINS INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT
AT/NEAR THE TAF SITES REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KFFC 231127
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
727 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WHILE THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GA. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA
THURSDAY ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
INCREASE CHANCES OF TSTORMS TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
CWA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WE DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE.

17


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH SEVERAL FEATURES IMPACTING THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING RELATIVELY QUIET PERIODS IN
BETWEEN. HAVE ACTUALLY DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL MODELS
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA. AS A RESULT...HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND LONGWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. CHANCE POPS SUNDAY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY WEEK AND THEN EXIT QUICKLY LATE MONDAY AS SECOND FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. LONGWAVE TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS POSITION OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID WEEK...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
SECOND FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

31


&&


.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GA. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
THUNDER DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
GA. THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. VFR SKIES
CURRENTLY OVER THE TAF SITES AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT
WITH MIXING THEY WILL COME AROUND TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN LIGHT IN
SPEED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  70  89  70 /  30  30  60  40
ATLANTA         88  71  87  71 /  30  30  60  20
BLAIRSVILLE     80  66  82  64 /  40  40  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    87  69  87  68 /  40  40  60  20
COLUMBUS        91  72  90  73 /  30  20  60  30
GAINESVILLE     86  70  87  69 /  40  30  60  30
MACON           91  72  91  72 /  30  20  60  40
ROME            87  70  87  68 /  50  40  60  10
PEACHTREE CITY  89  70  87  69 /  30  20  60  30
VIDALIA         93  74  94  74 /  30  20  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...17









000
FXUS62 KCHS 231118
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
718 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST
FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL THEN STALL OUT OVER
OR NEAR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING...THE WET GROUNDS FROM RECENT RAINS AND POOLING OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE INLAND...AND IT/S
THERE WHERE THE FOG WILL OCCUR. WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS/T-STORMS SKIRTING THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS...AS THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS TO WESTERLY THE BULK OF THE MARITIME
CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE.

TODAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ORLEANS WILL WEAKEN BUT THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS INLAND SC/GA. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD LIMIT
COVERAGE. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES /30 PERCENT/ SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE
COAST THIS MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING INLAND AS THE SEA BREEZE
KICKS IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND STORM MOTIONS WEAK THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL...IN THE
LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 90S INLAND...WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME
SHOWERS COULD SKIRT FAR INLAND AREAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT
BETTER CHANCES WILL COME OVER THE MORE UNSTABLE ATLANTIC...SOME OF
WHICH COULD SKIRT THE CENTRAL SC COAST. LOWS LIKELY A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL GIVEN THE SLIGHT SW BREEZE...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S
INLAND AND CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED AND ROBUST 594-596
DAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND SW STATES...WITH ANOTHER BUT SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND MORE COMPACT ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA. IN BETWEEN WE/LL FIND A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SE PART OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL
DAMPEN OUT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WELL
PRONOUNCED NE-SW ALIGNED TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED INLAND FROM THE
LOCAL REGION THURSDAY...IT BECOMES NUDGED A LITTLE CLOSER TO US ON
FRIDAY...THEN IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED INLAND ON
SATURDAY. MEANTIME...THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC ALONG
28-30N.

FOR THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS...
THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IN THE LOWER
MS VALLEY FROM TODAY WILL LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
DAY...IN SYNC WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH.
THAT ALONG WITH 25-35 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WHERE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS ENHANCED WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.
HOWEVER...WITH A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE AND POOR
LAPSE RATES THIS IS A LOW END PROBABILITY. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON T-STORM
INITIATION UNTIL THE CAP BREAKS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...SHOWING
POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST NW TIER. THE DEEP
WESTERLIES WILL HOLD THE SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE AND WILL
EASILY BOOST TEMPS TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS IN OVER A WEEK...WITH
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE WITHIN THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA A
SOLID 30-50 POPS WILL BE FORECAST. THERE IS MORE INLAND PENETRATION
TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH A LITTLE LESS OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
VERTICAL...AND THAT ALONG WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. POOR LAPSE
RATES...LESS WIND FIELDS AND A LOWER AMOUNT OF INSOLATION POINTS
TOWARD VERY LOW...BUT NOT QUITE ZERO RISK...OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WHAT/S LEFT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
OR DIFFUSE STATE...BUT WE STILL MIGHT SEE ONE MORE WEAK PERTURBATION
ALOFT. THAT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED POPS YET AGAIN. AN
EXPANSION OF THICKNESS...A SUBTLE RISE TO HEIGHTS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM
THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS TODAY IS
THE SEA BREEZE...THUS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RULE. SHOULD ANY DIRECT IMPACTS OCCUR FROM SHRA OR
TSRA THEN BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAN OCCUR...MAINLY FROM ABOUT
18-23Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME WIND SURGING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND THEN TONIGHT DUE TO
NOCTURNAL SURGING BUT WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS MAINLY 3 FT OR LESS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.
GIVEN LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND VARIOUS BOUNDARIES...CONDITIONS WILL
FAVOR SOME WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING. THUS WE HAVE ISSUED A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT. LET US KNOW IF ANY ARE SIGHTED
AS SPOUTS ARE DIFFICULT TO OBSERVE ON RADAR SINCE THEY ARE SHORT-
LIVED AND SMALL IN SCOPE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A
WEST/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND
SOUTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND OVER THE SE STATES.
THERE WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND MODEST PINCHING WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH...BUT OVERALL NOTHING
HIGHER THAN 10 OR 15 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR...AND MAYBE UP TO 15 OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY 20 KT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO THE LIMITED
OFFSHORE FETCH...PEAKING AT 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO THE
NE...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH HOLDS IN PLACE. PRETTY TOUGH TO
GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
CERTAINLY COULD SEE WINDS UP NEAR 15 OR 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 231118
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
718 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST
FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL THEN STALL OUT OVER
OR NEAR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING...THE WET GROUNDS FROM RECENT RAINS AND POOLING OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE INLAND...AND IT/S
THERE WHERE THE FOG WILL OCCUR. WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS/T-STORMS SKIRTING THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS...AS THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS TO WESTERLY THE BULK OF THE MARITIME
CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE.

TODAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ORLEANS WILL WEAKEN BUT THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS INLAND SC/GA. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD LIMIT
COVERAGE. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES /30 PERCENT/ SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE
COAST THIS MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING INLAND AS THE SEA BREEZE
KICKS IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND STORM MOTIONS WEAK THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL...IN THE
LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 90S INLAND...WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME
SHOWERS COULD SKIRT FAR INLAND AREAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT
BETTER CHANCES WILL COME OVER THE MORE UNSTABLE ATLANTIC...SOME OF
WHICH COULD SKIRT THE CENTRAL SC COAST. LOWS LIKELY A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL GIVEN THE SLIGHT SW BREEZE...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S
INLAND AND CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED AND ROBUST 594-596
DAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND SW STATES...WITH ANOTHER BUT SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND MORE COMPACT ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA. IN BETWEEN WE/LL FIND A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SE PART OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL
DAMPEN OUT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WELL
PRONOUNCED NE-SW ALIGNED TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED INLAND FROM THE
LOCAL REGION THURSDAY...IT BECOMES NUDGED A LITTLE CLOSER TO US ON
FRIDAY...THEN IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED INLAND ON
SATURDAY. MEANTIME...THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC ALONG
28-30N.

FOR THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS...
THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IN THE LOWER
MS VALLEY FROM TODAY WILL LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
DAY...IN SYNC WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH.
THAT ALONG WITH 25-35 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WHERE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS ENHANCED WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.
HOWEVER...WITH A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE AND POOR
LAPSE RATES THIS IS A LOW END PROBABILITY. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON T-STORM
INITIATION UNTIL THE CAP BREAKS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...SHOWING
POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST NW TIER. THE DEEP
WESTERLIES WILL HOLD THE SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE AND WILL
EASILY BOOST TEMPS TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS IN OVER A WEEK...WITH
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE WITHIN THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA A
SOLID 30-50 POPS WILL BE FORECAST. THERE IS MORE INLAND PENETRATION
TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH A LITTLE LESS OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
VERTICAL...AND THAT ALONG WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. POOR LAPSE
RATES...LESS WIND FIELDS AND A LOWER AMOUNT OF INSOLATION POINTS
TOWARD VERY LOW...BUT NOT QUITE ZERO RISK...OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WHAT/S LEFT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
OR DIFFUSE STATE...BUT WE STILL MIGHT SEE ONE MORE WEAK PERTURBATION
ALOFT. THAT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED POPS YET AGAIN. AN
EXPANSION OF THICKNESS...A SUBTLE RISE TO HEIGHTS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM
THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS TODAY IS
THE SEA BREEZE...THUS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RULE. SHOULD ANY DIRECT IMPACTS OCCUR FROM SHRA OR
TSRA THEN BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAN OCCUR...MAINLY FROM ABOUT
18-23Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME WIND SURGING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND THEN TONIGHT DUE TO
NOCTURNAL SURGING BUT WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS MAINLY 3 FT OR LESS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.
GIVEN LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND VARIOUS BOUNDARIES...CONDITIONS WILL
FAVOR SOME WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING. THUS WE HAVE ISSUED A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT. LET US KNOW IF ANY ARE SIGHTED
AS SPOUTS ARE DIFFICULT TO OBSERVE ON RADAR SINCE THEY ARE SHORT-
LIVED AND SMALL IN SCOPE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A
WEST/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND
SOUTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND OVER THE SE STATES.
THERE WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND MODEST PINCHING WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH...BUT OVERALL NOTHING
HIGHER THAN 10 OR 15 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR...AND MAYBE UP TO 15 OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY 20 KT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO THE LIMITED
OFFSHORE FETCH...PEAKING AT 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO THE
NE...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH HOLDS IN PLACE. PRETTY TOUGH TO
GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
CERTAINLY COULD SEE WINDS UP NEAR 15 OR 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 231051
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST AREA NEAR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES...BUT SOME DRYING EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER GEORGIA ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. AIR MASS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS WEAK. LOW CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE/WEAK WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0
INCHES AT TIMES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOW TO MODERATE. KEPT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
TO THE EAST. AIR MASS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE STRONGER. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAIN IMPACTS
CURRENTLY AT CAE/CUB/OGB. FOG LAYER IS MOSTLY THIN AND IS EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH ALL SITES
RETURNING TO VFR BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FROM THE MID
MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION REMAINS INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT REMAINS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 231051
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST AREA NEAR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES...BUT SOME DRYING EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER GEORGIA ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. AIR MASS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS WEAK. LOW CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE/WEAK WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0
INCHES AT TIMES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOW TO MODERATE. KEPT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
TO THE EAST. AIR MASS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE STRONGER. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAIN IMPACTS
CURRENTLY AT CAE/CUB/OGB. FOG LAYER IS MOSTLY THIN AND IS EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH ALL SITES
RETURNING TO VFR BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FROM THE MID
MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION REMAINS INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT REMAINS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 231051
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST AREA NEAR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES...BUT SOME DRYING EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER GEORGIA ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. AIR MASS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS WEAK. LOW CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE/WEAK WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0
INCHES AT TIMES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOW TO MODERATE. KEPT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
TO THE EAST. AIR MASS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE STRONGER. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAIN IMPACTS
CURRENTLY AT CAE/CUB/OGB. FOG LAYER IS MOSTLY THIN AND IS EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH ALL SITES
RETURNING TO VFR BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FROM THE MID
MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION REMAINS INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT REMAINS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 231051
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST AREA NEAR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES...BUT SOME DRYING EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER GEORGIA ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. AIR MASS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS WEAK. LOW CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE/WEAK WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0
INCHES AT TIMES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOW TO MODERATE. KEPT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
TO THE EAST. AIR MASS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE STRONGER. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAIN IMPACTS
CURRENTLY AT CAE/CUB/OGB. FOG LAYER IS MOSTLY THIN AND IS EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH ALL SITES
RETURNING TO VFR BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FROM THE MID
MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION REMAINS INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT REMAINS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCHS 231019
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
619 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST
FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL THEN STALL OUT OVER
OR NEAR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING...THE WET GROUNDS FROM RECENT RAINS AND POOLING OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE INLAND...AND IT/S
THERE WHERE THE FOG WILL OCCUR. WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS/T-STORMS SKIRTING THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS...AS THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS TO WESTERLY THE BULK OF THE MARITIME
CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE.

TODAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ORLEANS WILL WEAKEN BUT THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS INLAND SC/GA. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD LIMIT
COVERAGE. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES /30 PERCENT/ SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE
COAST THIS MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING INLAND AS THE SEA BREEZE
KICKS IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND STORM MOTIONS WEAK THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL...IN THE
LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 90S INLAND...WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME
SHOWERS COULD SKIRT FAR INLAND AREAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT
BETTER CHANCES WILL COME OVER THE MORE UNSTABLE ATLANTIC...SOME OF
WHICH COULD SKIRT THE CENTRAL SC COAST. LOWS LIKELY A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL GIVEN THE SLIGHT SW BREEZE...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S
INLAND AND CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED AND ROBUST 594-596
DAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND SW STATES...WITH ANOTHER BUT SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND MORE COMPACT ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA. IN BETWEEN WE/LL FIND A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SE PART OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL
DAMPEN OUT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WELL
PRONOUNCED NE-SW ALIGNED TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED INLAND FROM THE
LOCAL REGION THURSDAY...IT BECOMES NUDGED A LITTLE CLOSER TO US ON
FRIDAY...THEN IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED INLAND ON
SATURDAY. MEANTIME...THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC ALONG
28-30N.

FOR THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS...
THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IN THE LOWER
MS VALLEY FROM TODAY WILL LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
DAY...IN SYNC WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH.
THAT ALONG WITH 25-35 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WHERE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS ENHANCED WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.
HOWEVER...WITH A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE AND POOR
LAPSE RATES THIS IS A LOW END PROBABILITY. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON T-STORM
INITIATION UNTIL THE CAP BREAKS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...SHOWING
POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST NW TIER. THE DEEP
WESTERLIES WILL HOLD THE SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE AND WILL
EASILY BOOST TEMPS TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS IN OVER A WEEK...WITH
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE WITHIN THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA A
SOLID 30-50 POPS WILL BE FORECAST. THERE IS MORE INLAND PENETRATION
TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH A LITTLE LESS OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
VERTICAL...AND THAT ALONG WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. POOR LAPSE
RATES...LESS WIND FIELDS AND A LOWER AMOUNT OF INSOLATION POINTS
TOWARD VERY LOW...BUT NOT QUITE ZERO RISK...OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WHAT/S LEFT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
OR DIFFUSE STATE...BUT WE STILL MIGHT SEE ONE MORE WEAK PERTURBATION
ALOFT. THAT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED POPS YET AGAIN. AN
EXPANSION OF THICKNESS...A SUBTLE RISE TO HEIGHTS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM
THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR. OVERNIGHT...VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD IMPACT THE TERMS...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME WIND SURGING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND THEN TONIGHT DUE TO
NOCTURNAL SURGING BUT WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS MAINLY 3 FT OR LESS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.
GIVEN LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND VARIOUS BOUNDARIES...CONDITIONS WILL
FAVOR SOME WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING. THUS WE HAVE ISSUED A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT. LET US KNOW IF ANY ARE SIGHTED
AS SPOUTS ARE DIFFICULT TO OBSERVE ON RADAR SINCE THEY ARE SHORT-
LIVED AND SMALL IN SCOPE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A
WEST/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND
SOUTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND OVER THE SE STATES.
THERE WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND MODEST PINCHING WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH...BUT OVERALL NOTHING
HIGHER THAN 10 OR 15 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR...AND MAYBE UP TO 15 OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY 20 KT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO THE LIMITED
OFFSHORE FETCH...PEAKING AT 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO THE
NE...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH HOLDS IN PLACE. PRETTY TOUGH TO
GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
CERTAINLY COULD SEE WINDS UP NEAR 15 OR 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KFFC 230903
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WHILE THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GA. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA
THURSDAY ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
INCREASE CHANCES OF TSTORMS TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
CWA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WE DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE.

17


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH SEVERAL FEATURES IMPACTING THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING RELATIVELY QUIET PERIODS IN
BETWEEN. HAVE ACTUALLY DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL MODELS
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA. AS A RESULT...HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND LONGWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. CHANCE POPS SUNDAY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY WEEK AND THEN EXIT QUICKLY LATE MONDAY AS SECOND FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. LONGWAVE TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS POSITION OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID WEEK...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
SECOND FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

31


&&


.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GA.
THESE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH GA. THESE WILL ALSO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. VFR
SKIES CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA. SCT-BKN IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  70  89  70 /  30  30  60  40
ATLANTA         88  71  87  71 /  30  30  60  20
BLAIRSVILLE     80  66  82  64 /  40  40  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    87  69  87  68 /  40  40  60  20
COLUMBUS        91  72  90  73 /  30  20  60  30
GAINESVILLE     86  70  87  69 /  40  30  60  30
MACON           91  72  91  72 /  30  20  60  40
ROME            87  70  87  68 /  50  40  60  10
PEACHTREE CITY  89  70  87  69 /  30  20  60  30
VIDALIA         93  74  94  74 /  30  20  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...17





000
FXUS62 KCHS 230758
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
358 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST
FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL THEN STALL OUT OVER
OR NEAR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ORLEANS WILL WEAKEN BUT THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS INLAND SC/GA. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD LIMIT
COVERAGE. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES /30 PERCENT/ SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE
COAST THIS MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING INLAND AS THE SEA BREEZE
KICKS IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND STORM MOTIONS WEAK THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL...IN THE
LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 90S INLAND...WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME
SHOWERS COULD SKIRT FAR INLAND AREAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT
BETTER CHANCES WILL COME OVER THE MORE UNSTABLE ATLANTIC...SOME OF
WHICH COULD SKIRT THE CENTRAL SC COAST. LOWS LIKELY A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL GIVEN THE SLIGHT SW BREEZE...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S
INLAND AND CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED AND ROBUST 594-596
DAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND SW STATES...WITH ANOTHER BUT SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND MORE COMPACT ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA. IN BETWEEN WE/LL FIND A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SE PART OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL
DAMPEN OUT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WELL
PRONOUNCED NE-SW ALIGNED TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED INLAND FROM THE
LOCAL REGION THURSDAY...IT BECOMES NUDGED A LITTLE CLOSER TO US ON
FRIDAY...THEN IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED INLAND ON
SATURDAY. MEANTIME...THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC ALONG
28-30N.

FOR THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS...
THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IN THE LOWER
MS VALLEY FROM TODAY WILL LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
DAY...IN SYNC WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH.
THAT ALONG WITH 25-35 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WHERE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS ENHANCED WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.
HOWEVER...WITH A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE AND POOR
LAPSE RATES THIS IS A LOW END PROBABILITY. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON T-STORM
INITIATION UNTIL THE CAP BREAKS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...SHOWING
POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST NW TIER. THE DEEP
WESTERLIES WILL HOLD THE SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE AND WILL
EASILY BOOST TEMPS TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS IN OVER A WEEK...WITH
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE WITHIN THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA A
SOLID 30-50 POPS WILL BE FORECAST. THERE IS MORE INLAND PENETRATION
TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH A LITTLE LESS OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
VERTICAL...AND THAT ALONG WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. POOR LAPSE
RATES...LESS WIND FIELDS AND A LOWER AMOUNT OF INSOLATION POINTS
TOWARD A LITTLE RISK /BUT NOT QUITE ZERO/ OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WHAT/S LEFT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
OR DIFFUSE STATE...BUT WE STILL MIGHT SEE ONE MORE WEAK PERTURBATION
ALOFT. THAT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED POPS YET AGAIN. AN
EXPANSION OF THICKNESS...A SUBTLE RISE TO HEIGHTS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM
THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR. OVERNIGHT...VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD IMPACT THE TERMS...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME WIND SURGING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND THEN TONIGHT DUE TO
NOCTURNAL SURGING BUT WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS MAINLY 3 FT OR LESS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR SOME WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING SO WE HAVE
ISSUED A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A
WEST/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND
SOUTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND OVER THE SE STATES.
THERE WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND MODEST PINCHING WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH...BUT OVERALL NOTHING
HIGHER THAN 10 OR 15 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR...AND MAYBE UP TO 15 OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY 20 KT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO THE LIMITED
OFFSHORE FETCH...PEAKING AT 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO THE
NE...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH HOLDS IN PLACE. PRETTY TOUGH TO
GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
CERTAINLY COULD SEE WINDS UP NEAR 15 OR 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...33/RJB
MARINE...33/RJB







000
FXUS62 KCHS 230758
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
358 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...WHILE
AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST
FRIDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL THEN STALL OUT OVER
OR NEAR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ORLEANS WILL WEAKEN BUT THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS INLAND SC/GA. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD LIMIT
COVERAGE. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES /30 PERCENT/ SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE
COAST THIS MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING INLAND AS THE SEA BREEZE
KICKS IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND STORM MOTIONS WEAK THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL...IN THE
LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 90S INLAND...WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME
SHOWERS COULD SKIRT FAR INLAND AREAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT
BETTER CHANCES WILL COME OVER THE MORE UNSTABLE ATLANTIC...SOME OF
WHICH COULD SKIRT THE CENTRAL SC COAST. LOWS LIKELY A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL GIVEN THE SLIGHT SW BREEZE...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S
INLAND AND CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN ELONGATED AND ROBUST 594-596
DAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND SW STATES...WITH ANOTHER BUT SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND MORE COMPACT ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA. IN BETWEEN WE/LL FIND A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SE PART OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL
DAMPEN OUT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WELL
PRONOUNCED NE-SW ALIGNED TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED INLAND FROM THE
LOCAL REGION THURSDAY...IT BECOMES NUDGED A LITTLE CLOSER TO US ON
FRIDAY...THEN IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED INLAND ON
SATURDAY. MEANTIME...THE BERMUDA RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC ALONG
28-30N.

FOR THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS...
THURSDAY...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IN THE LOWER
MS VALLEY FROM TODAY WILL LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
DAY...IN SYNC WITH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH.
THAT ALONG WITH 25-35 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WHERE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS ENHANCED WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.
HOWEVER...WITH A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE AND POOR
LAPSE RATES THIS IS A LOW END PROBABILITY. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON T-STORM
INITIATION UNTIL THE CAP BREAKS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...SHOWING
POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST NW TIER. THE DEEP
WESTERLIES WILL HOLD THE SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE AND WILL
EASILY BOOST TEMPS TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS IN OVER A WEEK...WITH
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE WITHIN THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA A
SOLID 30-50 POPS WILL BE FORECAST. THERE IS MORE INLAND PENETRATION
TO THE SEA BREEZE WITH A LITTLE LESS OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
VERTICAL...AND THAT ALONG WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. POOR LAPSE
RATES...LESS WIND FIELDS AND A LOWER AMOUNT OF INSOLATION POINTS
TOWARD A LITTLE RISK /BUT NOT QUITE ZERO/ OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SATURDAY...WHAT/S LEFT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
OR DIFFUSE STATE...BUT WE STILL MIGHT SEE ONE MORE WEAK PERTURBATION
ALOFT. THAT ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED POPS YET AGAIN. AN
EXPANSION OF THICKNESS...A SUBTLE RISE TO HEIGHTS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM
THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FLAT LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE POKES NORTHWARD
AND A DIGGING TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SENDS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT YET SURE HOW MUCH PUSH THERE IS BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS TO HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEARBY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE THERE IS NO TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. WE/LL THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
DOWN BELOW LATE JULY NORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR. OVERNIGHT...VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD IMPACT THE TERMS...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME WIND SURGING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND THEN TONIGHT DUE TO
NOCTURNAL SURGING BUT WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS MAINLY 3 FT OR LESS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR SOME WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING SO WE HAVE
ISSUED A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A
WEST/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND
SOUTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND OVER THE SE STATES.
THERE WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND MODEST PINCHING WITH THE NEARBY TROUGH...BUT OVERALL NOTHING
HIGHER THAN 10 OR 15 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR...AND MAYBE UP TO 15 OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY 20 KT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO THE LIMITED
OFFSHORE FETCH...PEAKING AT 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKING INTO THE
NE...WHILE THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH HOLDS IN PLACE. PRETTY TOUGH TO
GET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
CERTAINLY COULD SEE WINDS UP NEAR 15 OR 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 3 OR 4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...33/RJB
MARINE...33/RJB






000
FXUS62 KCAE 230737
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
337 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST AREA NEAR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES...BUT SOME DRYING EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER GEORGIA ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. AIR MASS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS WEAK. LOW CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE/WEAK WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0
INCHES AT TIMES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOW TO MODERATE. KEPT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
TO THE EAST. AIR MASS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE STRONGER. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SURFACE OBS INDICATING MUCH OF THE CLOUDINESS IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AND STRATUS THROUGH DAYBREAK AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN
08 AND 13Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR AROUND SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR AROUND 13Z WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN TAFS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 230612
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. MUGGY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SURFACE OBS INDICATING MUCH OF THE CLOUDINESS IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AND STRATUS THROUGH DAYBREAK AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN
08 AND 13Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR AROUND SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR AROUND 13Z WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN TAFS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KFFC 230526
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
126 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SHOWERS SHOULD STAY MAINLY ISOLATED AND
POPS LOOK OKAY.

41


.PREVIOUS...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS MENTIONED IN PREV UPDATED DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LOW PRIMARY
FEATURE WITH SUBTLE/WEAKER VORTICITY CENTER IN SC GA SOUTH OF MACON.
CONVECTION COULD EXPAND A LITTLE MORE IN COVERAGE ESP IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE INSTABILITY HIGHER AND NORTH OF WEAK VORT
CENTER...BUT NOT MUCH. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH A LITTLE WEST WEDNESDAY WHILE FILLING BUT WILL
BE PICKED UP BY WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT. EXPECT SIMILAR COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF STORMS WED AFT/EVENING. PW REMAINS HIGH SO HEAVY RAIN
PRIMARY THREAT. THURSDAY...LARGER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH DIGS WELL
INTO THE STATE SO COULD SEE LARGER PRECIP AREAS AND WITH SOME MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP CLOSER TO GUIDANCE BUT
LIFT AHEAD OF FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS WANES LATER THURSDAY. GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURS MORNING IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BASED ON MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 10-15KTS...DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS
WILL OCCUR BUT MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAN LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF A FRONT. STILL DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ON THE
STRENGTH/PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONT
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. HAVE THEREFORE NOT CHANGED MUCH OF FORECAST...BUT
ADJUSTED SOME POPS AND TEMPS NEAR NEXT TUESDAY WHERE BETTER MODEL
CONSENSUS IS REACHED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL KEEP AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS OR HIGHER THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWEST RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REPRIEVE IS SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INFLUENCES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LONG TERM
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS
EACH AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

MODELED INSTABILITIES STILL LOOK TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
BRIEF SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT ON THE WHOLE STILL EXPECT
THE MAJORITY TO BE SUB-SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS WHERE STORMS
HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT...OR WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION.

IN GENERAL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LONGWAVE TROUGH.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GA.
THESE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH GA. THESE WILL ALSO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. VFR
SKIES CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA. SCT-BKN IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  71  91 /  30  30  30  50
ATLANTA         71  87  72  87 /  30  30  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     66  82  65  81 /  30  40  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    70  88  70  86 /  30  40  40  50
COLUMBUS        71  89  73  90 /  20  30  20  50
GAINESVILLE     70  86  70  86 /  30  40  30  50
MACON           69  90  71  90 /  30  30  20  40
ROME            70  87  70  87 /  30  40  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  69  88  70  89 /  30  30  20  50
VIDALIA         72  92  73  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....31/BAKER
AVIATION...41
















000
FXUS62 KFFC 230526
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
126 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SHOWERS SHOULD STAY MAINLY ISOLATED AND
POPS LOOK OKAY.

41


.PREVIOUS...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS MENTIONED IN PREV UPDATED DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LOW PRIMARY
FEATURE WITH SUBTLE/WEAKER VORTICITY CENTER IN SC GA SOUTH OF MACON.
CONVECTION COULD EXPAND A LITTLE MORE IN COVERAGE ESP IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE INSTABILITY HIGHER AND NORTH OF WEAK VORT
CENTER...BUT NOT MUCH. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH A LITTLE WEST WEDNESDAY WHILE FILLING BUT WILL
BE PICKED UP BY WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT. EXPECT SIMILAR COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF STORMS WED AFT/EVENING. PW REMAINS HIGH SO HEAVY RAIN
PRIMARY THREAT. THURSDAY...LARGER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH DIGS WELL
INTO THE STATE SO COULD SEE LARGER PRECIP AREAS AND WITH SOME MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP CLOSER TO GUIDANCE BUT
LIFT AHEAD OF FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS WANES LATER THURSDAY. GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURS MORNING IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BASED ON MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 10-15KTS...DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS
WILL OCCUR BUT MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAN LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF A FRONT. STILL DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ON THE
STRENGTH/PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONT
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. HAVE THEREFORE NOT CHANGED MUCH OF FORECAST...BUT
ADJUSTED SOME POPS AND TEMPS NEAR NEXT TUESDAY WHERE BETTER MODEL
CONSENSUS IS REACHED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL KEEP AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS OR HIGHER THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWEST RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REPRIEVE IS SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INFLUENCES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LONG TERM
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS
EACH AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

MODELED INSTABILITIES STILL LOOK TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
BRIEF SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT ON THE WHOLE STILL EXPECT
THE MAJORITY TO BE SUB-SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS WHERE STORMS
HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT...OR WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION.

IN GENERAL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LONGWAVE TROUGH.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GA.
THESE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH GA. THESE WILL ALSO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. VFR
SKIES CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA. SCT-BKN IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  71  91 /  30  30  30  50
ATLANTA         71  87  72  87 /  30  30  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     66  82  65  81 /  30  40  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    70  88  70  86 /  30  40  40  50
COLUMBUS        71  89  73  90 /  20  30  20  50
GAINESVILLE     70  86  70  86 /  30  40  30  50
MACON           69  90  71  90 /  30  30  20  40
ROME            70  87  70  87 /  30  40  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  69  88  70  89 /  30  30  20  50
VIDALIA         72  92  73  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....31/BAKER
AVIATION...41
















000
FXUS62 KFFC 230526
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
126 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SHOWERS SHOULD STAY MAINLY ISOLATED AND
POPS LOOK OKAY.

41


.PREVIOUS...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS MENTIONED IN PREV UPDATED DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LOW PRIMARY
FEATURE WITH SUBTLE/WEAKER VORTICITY CENTER IN SC GA SOUTH OF MACON.
CONVECTION COULD EXPAND A LITTLE MORE IN COVERAGE ESP IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE INSTABILITY HIGHER AND NORTH OF WEAK VORT
CENTER...BUT NOT MUCH. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH A LITTLE WEST WEDNESDAY WHILE FILLING BUT WILL
BE PICKED UP BY WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT. EXPECT SIMILAR COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF STORMS WED AFT/EVENING. PW REMAINS HIGH SO HEAVY RAIN
PRIMARY THREAT. THURSDAY...LARGER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH DIGS WELL
INTO THE STATE SO COULD SEE LARGER PRECIP AREAS AND WITH SOME MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP CLOSER TO GUIDANCE BUT
LIFT AHEAD OF FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS WANES LATER THURSDAY. GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURS MORNING IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BASED ON MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 10-15KTS...DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS
WILL OCCUR BUT MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAN LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF A FRONT. STILL DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ON THE
STRENGTH/PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONT
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. HAVE THEREFORE NOT CHANGED MUCH OF FORECAST...BUT
ADJUSTED SOME POPS AND TEMPS NEAR NEXT TUESDAY WHERE BETTER MODEL
CONSENSUS IS REACHED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL KEEP AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS OR HIGHER THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWEST RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REPRIEVE IS SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INFLUENCES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LONG TERM
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS
EACH AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

MODELED INSTABILITIES STILL LOOK TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
BRIEF SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT ON THE WHOLE STILL EXPECT
THE MAJORITY TO BE SUB-SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS WHERE STORMS
HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT...OR WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION.

IN GENERAL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LONGWAVE TROUGH.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GA.
THESE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH GA. THESE WILL ALSO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. VFR
SKIES CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA. SCT-BKN IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  71  91 /  30  30  30  50
ATLANTA         71  87  72  87 /  30  30  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     66  82  65  81 /  30  40  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    70  88  70  86 /  30  40  40  50
COLUMBUS        71  89  73  90 /  20  30  20  50
GAINESVILLE     70  86  70  86 /  30  40  30  50
MACON           69  90  71  90 /  30  30  20  40
ROME            70  87  70  87 /  30  40  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  69  88  70  89 /  30  30  20  50
VIDALIA         72  92  73  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....31/BAKER
AVIATION...41
















000
FXUS62 KFFC 230526
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
126 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SHOWERS SHOULD STAY MAINLY ISOLATED AND
POPS LOOK OKAY.

41


.PREVIOUS...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS MENTIONED IN PREV UPDATED DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LOW PRIMARY
FEATURE WITH SUBTLE/WEAKER VORTICITY CENTER IN SC GA SOUTH OF MACON.
CONVECTION COULD EXPAND A LITTLE MORE IN COVERAGE ESP IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE INSTABILITY HIGHER AND NORTH OF WEAK VORT
CENTER...BUT NOT MUCH. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH A LITTLE WEST WEDNESDAY WHILE FILLING BUT WILL
BE PICKED UP BY WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT. EXPECT SIMILAR COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF STORMS WED AFT/EVENING. PW REMAINS HIGH SO HEAVY RAIN
PRIMARY THREAT. THURSDAY...LARGER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH DIGS WELL
INTO THE STATE SO COULD SEE LARGER PRECIP AREAS AND WITH SOME MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP CLOSER TO GUIDANCE BUT
LIFT AHEAD OF FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS WANES LATER THURSDAY. GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURS MORNING IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BASED ON MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 10-15KTS...DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS
WILL OCCUR BUT MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAN LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF A FRONT. STILL DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ON THE
STRENGTH/PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONT
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. HAVE THEREFORE NOT CHANGED MUCH OF FORECAST...BUT
ADJUSTED SOME POPS AND TEMPS NEAR NEXT TUESDAY WHERE BETTER MODEL
CONSENSUS IS REACHED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL KEEP AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS OR HIGHER THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWEST RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REPRIEVE IS SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INFLUENCES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LONG TERM
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS
EACH AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

MODELED INSTABILITIES STILL LOOK TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
BRIEF SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT ON THE WHOLE STILL EXPECT
THE MAJORITY TO BE SUB-SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS WHERE STORMS
HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT...OR WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION.

IN GENERAL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LONGWAVE TROUGH.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GA.
THESE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH GA. THESE WILL ALSO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. VFR
SKIES CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA. SCT-BKN IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  71  91 /  30  30  30  50
ATLANTA         71  87  72  87 /  30  30  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     66  82  65  81 /  30  40  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    70  88  70  86 /  30  40  40  50
COLUMBUS        71  89  73  90 /  20  30  20  50
GAINESVILLE     70  86  70  86 /  30  40  30  50
MACON           69  90  71  90 /  30  30  20  40
ROME            70  87  70  87 /  30  40  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  69  88  70  89 /  30  30  20  50
VIDALIA         72  92  73  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....31/BAKER
AVIATION...41
















000
FXUS62 KCHS 230445
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1245 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...
WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COASTLINE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR THE MOST PART
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY/LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOUND. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT/PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND CLOUD COVER
THINS THE MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
AND DISSIPATE...ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO
PUSH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
SET UP INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRUGGLES
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS BEYOND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS
SHIFTING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A MORE SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL QUITE HIGH NEAR
2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD...SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SLOW STORM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...SO OVERALL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LOWER. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVER LAND
BY THE EVENING TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY/TUESDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND.

THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION...ALLOWING THE INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACCORDINGLY. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING
TO 1.75 INCHES OR LESS AND A CAPPING INVERSION PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE MORE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BEFORE INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. HAVE INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAKING IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...HIGHEST CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AREA...WHILE ADVERTISING LOWER POPS IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FARTHER AWAY FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD REMAIN PINNED.

FRIDAY...THE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIP TOWARD THE
COASTLINE...AND EXPECT DECENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A RESULT.
HAVE INDICATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR. OVERNIGHT...VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD IMPACT THE TERMS...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
INLAND AND SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING TAKES PLACE. WINDS WILL RUN
10-15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 4 FT OVER OUTER WATERS
CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS. WINDS COULD
PEAK IN THE 15 TO 20 KT DURING THESE NIGHTTIME INCREASES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 230445
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1245 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...
WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COASTLINE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR THE MOST PART
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY/LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOUND. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT/PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND CLOUD COVER
THINS THE MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
AND DISSIPATE...ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO
PUSH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
SET UP INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRUGGLES
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS BEYOND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS
SHIFTING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A MORE SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL QUITE HIGH NEAR
2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD...SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SLOW STORM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...SO OVERALL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LOWER. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVER LAND
BY THE EVENING TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY/TUESDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND.

THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION...ALLOWING THE INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACCORDINGLY. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING
TO 1.75 INCHES OR LESS AND A CAPPING INVERSION PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE MORE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BEFORE INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. HAVE INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAKING IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...HIGHEST CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AREA...WHILE ADVERTISING LOWER POPS IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FARTHER AWAY FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD REMAIN PINNED.

FRIDAY...THE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIP TOWARD THE
COASTLINE...AND EXPECT DECENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A RESULT.
HAVE INDICATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR. OVERNIGHT...VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD IMPACT THE TERMS...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
INLAND AND SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING TAKES PLACE. WINDS WILL RUN
10-15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 4 FT OVER OUTER WATERS
CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS. WINDS COULD
PEAK IN THE 15 TO 20 KT DURING THESE NIGHTTIME INCREASES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 230225
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1025 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. MUGGY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CSRA.  WILL KEEP
MENTION OF VCSH AT CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL INTO THE EARLY MORNING GIVEN
LATER RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS THE CURRENT MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A
STALLED FRONT IN THE VICINITY.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY EASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES.
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 230225
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1025 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. MUGGY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CSRA.  WILL KEEP
MENTION OF VCSH AT CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL INTO THE EARLY MORNING GIVEN
LATER RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS THE CURRENT MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A
STALLED FRONT IN THE VICINITY.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY EASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES.
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KFFC 230148
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
940 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SHOWERS SHOULD STAY MAINLY ISOLATED AND
POPS LOOK OKAY.

41


.PREVIOUS...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS MENTIONED IN PREV UPDATED DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LOW PRIMARY
FEATURE WITH SUBTLE/WEAKER VORTICITY CENTER IN SC GA SOUTH OF MACON.
CONVECTION COULD EXPAND A LITTLE MORE IN COVERAGE ESP IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE INSTABILITY HIGHER AND NORTH OF WEAK VORT
CENTER...BUT NOT MUCH. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH A LITTLE WEST WEDNESDAY WHILE FILLING BUT WILL
BE PICKED UP BY WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT. EXPECT SIMILAR COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF STORMS WED AFT/EVENING. PW REMAINS HIGH SO HEAVY RAIN
PRIMARY THREAT. THURSDAY...LARGER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH DIGS WELL
INTO THE STATE SO COULD SEE LARGER PRECIP AREAS AND WITH SOME MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP CLOSER TO GUIDANCE BUT
LIFT AHEAD OF FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS WANES LATER THURSDAY. GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURS MORNING IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BASED ON MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 10-15KTS...DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS
WILL OCCUR BUT MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAN LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF A FRONT. STILL DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ON THE
STRENGTH/PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONT
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. HAVE THEREFORE NOT CHANGED MUCH OF FORECAST...BUT
ADJUSTED SOME POPS AND TEMPS NEAR NEXT TUESDAY WHERE BETTER MODEL
CONSENSUS IS REACHED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL KEEP AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS OR HIGHER THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWEST RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REPRIEVE IS SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INFLUENCES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LONG TERM
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS
EACH AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

MODELED INSTABILITIES STILL LOOK TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
BRIEF SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT ON THE WHOLE STILL EXPECT
THE MAJORITY TO BE SUB-SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS WHERE STORMS
HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT...OR WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION.

IN GENERAL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LONGWAVE TROUGH.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...BUT A FEW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS AGAIN LIKELY TO
FORM AROUND 07Z AND PERSIST THRU 14Z...WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALSO AT THIS TIME. UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF US WEDNESDAY AND STILL EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  71  91 /  30  30  30  50
ATLANTA         71  87  72  87 /  30  30  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     66  82  65  81 /  30  40  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    70  88  70  86 /  30  40  40  50
COLUMBUS        71  89  73  90 /  20  30  20  50
GAINESVILLE     70  86  70  86 /  30  40  30  50
MACON           69  90  71  90 /  30  30  20  40
ROME            70  87  70  87 /  30  40  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  69  88  70  89 /  30  30  20  50
VIDALIA         72  92  73  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....31/BAKER
AVIATION...41












000
FXUS62 KFFC 230148
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
940 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SHOWERS SHOULD STAY MAINLY ISOLATED AND
POPS LOOK OKAY.

41


.PREVIOUS...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS MENTIONED IN PREV UPDATED DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LOW PRIMARY
FEATURE WITH SUBTLE/WEAKER VORTICITY CENTER IN SC GA SOUTH OF MACON.
CONVECTION COULD EXPAND A LITTLE MORE IN COVERAGE ESP IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE INSTABILITY HIGHER AND NORTH OF WEAK VORT
CENTER...BUT NOT MUCH. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH A LITTLE WEST WEDNESDAY WHILE FILLING BUT WILL
BE PICKED UP BY WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT. EXPECT SIMILAR COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF STORMS WED AFT/EVENING. PW REMAINS HIGH SO HEAVY RAIN
PRIMARY THREAT. THURSDAY...LARGER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH DIGS WELL
INTO THE STATE SO COULD SEE LARGER PRECIP AREAS AND WITH SOME MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP CLOSER TO GUIDANCE BUT
LIFT AHEAD OF FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS WANES LATER THURSDAY. GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURS MORNING IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BASED ON MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 10-15KTS...DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS
WILL OCCUR BUT MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAN LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF A FRONT. STILL DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ON THE
STRENGTH/PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONT
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. HAVE THEREFORE NOT CHANGED MUCH OF FORECAST...BUT
ADJUSTED SOME POPS AND TEMPS NEAR NEXT TUESDAY WHERE BETTER MODEL
CONSENSUS IS REACHED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL KEEP AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS OR HIGHER THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWEST RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REPRIEVE IS SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INFLUENCES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LONG TERM
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS
EACH AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

MODELED INSTABILITIES STILL LOOK TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
BRIEF SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT ON THE WHOLE STILL EXPECT
THE MAJORITY TO BE SUB-SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS WHERE STORMS
HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT...OR WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION.

IN GENERAL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LONGWAVE TROUGH.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...BUT A FEW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS AGAIN LIKELY TO
FORM AROUND 07Z AND PERSIST THRU 14Z...WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALSO AT THIS TIME. UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF US WEDNESDAY AND STILL EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  71  91 /  30  30  30  50
ATLANTA         71  87  72  87 /  30  30  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     66  82  65  81 /  30  40  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    70  88  70  86 /  30  40  40  50
COLUMBUS        71  89  73  90 /  20  30  20  50
GAINESVILLE     70  86  70  86 /  30  40  30  50
MACON           69  90  71  90 /  30  30  20  40
ROME            70  87  70  87 /  30  40  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  69  88  70  89 /  30  30  20  50
VIDALIA         72  92  73  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....31/BAKER
AVIATION...41













000
FXUS62 KCHS 230131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
931 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...
WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COASTLINE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE WAS NUDGING WESTWARD THIS EVENING WHILE
AN UPPER LOW RETROGRADES ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE RAINS FROM SYLVANIA TO REIDSVILLE WERE GRADUALLY DECREASING
IN INTENSITY WITH DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS ALONG EAST OF I-95 THIS
EVENING. THE 00Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING INDICATED 2 INCH PWATS WITH
WEAK DEEP LAYERED INSTABILITY...TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON. OVERNIGHT...
RAINS WELL INLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH AN UPTICK IN
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OFFSHORE AS BOUNDARY LAYER SPEED CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS STAND A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST
SPOTTY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH
THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR IN CHARLESTON COUNTY LATE AS THE LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPS...CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH. OVERALL..,MINOR TWEAKS TO
OUR FORECAST WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYERED CLOUDS...MAINLY
20-30 POPS AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG LATE BUT NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THIS MORNING AS SYNOPTIC FLOW
NOW MORE SE TO S WITH THE ALIGNMENT OF THE OFFSHORE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
AND DISSIPATE...ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO
PUSH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
SET UP INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRUGGLES
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS BEYOND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS
SHIFTING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A MORE SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL QUITE HIGH NEAR
2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD...SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SLOW STORM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...SO OVERALL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LOWER. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVER LAND
BY THE EVENING TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY/TUESDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND.

THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION...ALLOWING THE INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACCORDINGLY. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING
TO 1.75 INCHES OR LESS AND A CAPPING INVERSION PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE MORE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BEFORE INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. HAVE INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAKING IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...HIGHEST CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AREA...WHILE ADVERTISING LOWER POPS IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FARTHER AWAY FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD REMAIN PINNED.

FRIDAY...THE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIP TOWARD THE
COASTLINE...AND EXPECT DECENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A RESULT.
HAVE INDICATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN SUGGESTS MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF SAVANNAH AS LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE
KCHS TERMINAL LASTING GREATER THAN AN HOUR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT FOG OR LOW CLOUDS AT EITHER TERMINAL. ON WED...MODELS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ALONG BY AFTERNOON
WITH LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE GEORGIA SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
INLAND AND SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING TAKES PLACE. WINDS WILL RUN
10-15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 4 FT OVER OUTER WATERS
CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS. WINDS COULD
PEAK IN THE 15 TO 20 KT DURING THESE NIGHTTIME INCREASES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 230131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
931 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...
WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COASTLINE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE WAS NUDGING WESTWARD THIS EVENING WHILE
AN UPPER LOW RETROGRADES ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE RAINS FROM SYLVANIA TO REIDSVILLE WERE GRADUALLY DECREASING
IN INTENSITY WITH DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS ALONG EAST OF I-95 THIS
EVENING. THE 00Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING INDICATED 2 INCH PWATS WITH
WEAK DEEP LAYERED INSTABILITY...TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON. OVERNIGHT...
RAINS WELL INLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH AN UPTICK IN
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OFFSHORE AS BOUNDARY LAYER SPEED CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS STAND A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST
SPOTTY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH
THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR IN CHARLESTON COUNTY LATE AS THE LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPS...CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH. OVERALL..,MINOR TWEAKS TO
OUR FORECAST WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYERED CLOUDS...MAINLY
20-30 POPS AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG LATE BUT NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THIS MORNING AS SYNOPTIC FLOW
NOW MORE SE TO S WITH THE ALIGNMENT OF THE OFFSHORE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
AND DISSIPATE...ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO
PUSH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
SET UP INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRUGGLES
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS BEYOND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS
SHIFTING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A MORE SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL QUITE HIGH NEAR
2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD...SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SLOW STORM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...SO OVERALL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LOWER. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVER LAND
BY THE EVENING TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY/TUESDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND.

THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION...ALLOWING THE INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACCORDINGLY. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING
TO 1.75 INCHES OR LESS AND A CAPPING INVERSION PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE MORE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BEFORE INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. HAVE INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAKING IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...HIGHEST CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AREA...WHILE ADVERTISING LOWER POPS IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FARTHER AWAY FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD REMAIN PINNED.

FRIDAY...THE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIP TOWARD THE
COASTLINE...AND EXPECT DECENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A RESULT.
HAVE INDICATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN SUGGESTS MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF SAVANNAH AS LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE
KCHS TERMINAL LASTING GREATER THAN AN HOUR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT FOG OR LOW CLOUDS AT EITHER TERMINAL. ON WED...MODELS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ALONG BY AFTERNOON
WITH LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE GEORGIA SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
INLAND AND SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING TAKES PLACE. WINDS WILL RUN
10-15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 4 FT OVER OUTER WATERS
CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS. WINDS COULD
PEAK IN THE 15 TO 20 KT DURING THESE NIGHTTIME INCREASES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 230131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
931 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...
WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COASTLINE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE WAS NUDGING WESTWARD THIS EVENING WHILE
AN UPPER LOW RETROGRADES ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE RAINS FROM SYLVANIA TO REIDSVILLE WERE GRADUALLY DECREASING
IN INTENSITY WITH DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS ALONG EAST OF I-95 THIS
EVENING. THE 00Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING INDICATED 2 INCH PWATS WITH
WEAK DEEP LAYERED INSTABILITY...TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON. OVERNIGHT...
RAINS WELL INLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH AN UPTICK IN
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OFFSHORE AS BOUNDARY LAYER SPEED CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS STAND A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST
SPOTTY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH
THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR IN CHARLESTON COUNTY LATE AS THE LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPS...CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH. OVERALL..,MINOR TWEAKS TO
OUR FORECAST WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYERED CLOUDS...MAINLY
20-30 POPS AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG LATE BUT NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THIS MORNING AS SYNOPTIC FLOW
NOW MORE SE TO S WITH THE ALIGNMENT OF THE OFFSHORE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
AND DISSIPATE...ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO
PUSH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
SET UP INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRUGGLES
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS BEYOND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS
SHIFTING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A MORE SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL QUITE HIGH NEAR
2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD...SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SLOW STORM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...SO OVERALL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LOWER. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVER LAND
BY THE EVENING TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY/TUESDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND.

THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION...ALLOWING THE INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACCORDINGLY. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING
TO 1.75 INCHES OR LESS AND A CAPPING INVERSION PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE MORE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BEFORE INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. HAVE INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAKING IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...HIGHEST CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AREA...WHILE ADVERTISING LOWER POPS IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FARTHER AWAY FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD REMAIN PINNED.

FRIDAY...THE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIP TOWARD THE
COASTLINE...AND EXPECT DECENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A RESULT.
HAVE INDICATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN SUGGESTS MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF SAVANNAH AS LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE
KCHS TERMINAL LASTING GREATER THAN AN HOUR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT FOG OR LOW CLOUDS AT EITHER TERMINAL. ON WED...MODELS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ALONG BY AFTERNOON
WITH LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE GEORGIA SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
INLAND AND SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING TAKES PLACE. WINDS WILL RUN
10-15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 4 FT OVER OUTER WATERS
CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS. WINDS COULD
PEAK IN THE 15 TO 20 KT DURING THESE NIGHTTIME INCREASES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 230131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
931 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...
WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COASTLINE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE WAS NUDGING WESTWARD THIS EVENING WHILE
AN UPPER LOW RETROGRADES ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE RAINS FROM SYLVANIA TO REIDSVILLE WERE GRADUALLY DECREASING
IN INTENSITY WITH DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS ALONG EAST OF I-95 THIS
EVENING. THE 00Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING INDICATED 2 INCH PWATS WITH
WEAK DEEP LAYERED INSTABILITY...TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON. OVERNIGHT...
RAINS WELL INLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH AN UPTICK IN
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OFFSHORE AS BOUNDARY LAYER SPEED CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS STAND A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST
SPOTTY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH
THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR IN CHARLESTON COUNTY LATE AS THE LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPS...CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH. OVERALL..,MINOR TWEAKS TO
OUR FORECAST WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYERED CLOUDS...MAINLY
20-30 POPS AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG LATE BUT NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THIS MORNING AS SYNOPTIC FLOW
NOW MORE SE TO S WITH THE ALIGNMENT OF THE OFFSHORE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
AND DISSIPATE...ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO
PUSH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
SET UP INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRUGGLES
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS BEYOND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS
SHIFTING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A MORE SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL QUITE HIGH NEAR
2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD...SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SLOW STORM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...SO OVERALL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LOWER. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVER LAND
BY THE EVENING TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY/TUESDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND.

THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION...ALLOWING THE INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACCORDINGLY. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING
TO 1.75 INCHES OR LESS AND A CAPPING INVERSION PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE MORE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BEFORE INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. HAVE INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAKING IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...HIGHEST CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AREA...WHILE ADVERTISING LOWER POPS IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FARTHER AWAY FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD REMAIN PINNED.

FRIDAY...THE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIP TOWARD THE
COASTLINE...AND EXPECT DECENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A RESULT.
HAVE INDICATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN SUGGESTS MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF SAVANNAH AS LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE
KCHS TERMINAL LASTING GREATER THAN AN HOUR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT FOG OR LOW CLOUDS AT EITHER TERMINAL. ON WED...MODELS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ALONG BY AFTERNOON
WITH LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE GEORGIA SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
INLAND AND SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING TAKES PLACE. WINDS WILL RUN
10-15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 4 FT OVER OUTER WATERS
CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS. WINDS COULD
PEAK IN THE 15 TO 20 KT DURING THESE NIGHTTIME INCREASES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 222348
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
748 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...
WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COASTLINE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING...SLOWLY RETROGRADING TO THE WEST. MEANWHILE A MESOSCALE
LOW SPINS OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WITH BANDS OF CONVERGENCE
SPURRING SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR INLAND GEORGIA COUNTIES TO THE WEST OF
SAVANNAH ALONG THE I-16 CORRIDOR. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY LATE EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS WHILE CONVECTION RE-FIRES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS BRUSHING SOME OF BEACHES OF SOUTH CAROLINA
DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE LAND BREEZE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
AND DISSIPATE...ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO
PUSH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
SET UP INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRUGGLES
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS BEYOND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS
SHIFTING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A MORE SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL QUITE HIGH NEAR
2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD...SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SLOW STORM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...SO OVERALL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LOWER. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVER LAND
BY THE EVENING TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY/TUESDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND.

THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION...ALLOWING THE INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACCORDINGLY. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING
TO 1.75 INCHES OR LESS AND A CAPPING INVERSION PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE MORE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BEFORE INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. HAVE INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAKING IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...HIGHEST CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AREA...WHILE ADVERTISING LOWER POPS IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FARTHER AWAY FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD REMAIN PINNED.

FRIDAY...THE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIP TOWARD THE
COASTLINE...AND EXPECT DECENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A RESULT.
HAVE INDICATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN SUGGESTS MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF SAVANNAH AS LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE
KCHS TERMINAL LASTING GREATER THAN AN HOUR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT FOG OR LOW CLOUDS AT EITHER TERMINAL. ON WED...MODELS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ALONG BY AFTERNOON
WITH LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE GEORGIA SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
INLAND AND SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING TAKES PLACE. WINDS WILL RUN
10-15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 4 FT OVER OUTER WATERS.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS. WINDS COULD
PEAK IN THE 15 TO 20 KT DURING THESE NIGHTTIME INCREASES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 222348
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
748 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...
WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COASTLINE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING...SLOWLY RETROGRADING TO THE WEST. MEANWHILE A MESOSCALE
LOW SPINS OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WITH BANDS OF CONVERGENCE
SPURRING SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR INLAND GEORGIA COUNTIES TO THE WEST OF
SAVANNAH ALONG THE I-16 CORRIDOR. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY LATE EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS WHILE CONVECTION RE-FIRES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS BRUSHING SOME OF BEACHES OF SOUTH CAROLINA
DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE LAND BREEZE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
AND DISSIPATE...ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO
PUSH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
SET UP INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRUGGLES
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS BEYOND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS
SHIFTING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A MORE SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL QUITE HIGH NEAR
2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD...SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SLOW STORM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...SO OVERALL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LOWER. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVER LAND
BY THE EVENING TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY/TUESDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND.

THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION...ALLOWING THE INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACCORDINGLY. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING
TO 1.75 INCHES OR LESS AND A CAPPING INVERSION PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE MORE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BEFORE INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. HAVE INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAKING IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...HIGHEST CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AREA...WHILE ADVERTISING LOWER POPS IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FARTHER AWAY FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD REMAIN PINNED.

FRIDAY...THE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIP TOWARD THE
COASTLINE...AND EXPECT DECENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A RESULT.
HAVE INDICATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN SUGGESTS MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF SAVANNAH AS LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE
KCHS TERMINAL LASTING GREATER THAN AN HOUR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT FOG OR LOW CLOUDS AT EITHER TERMINAL. ON WED...MODELS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ALONG BY AFTERNOON
WITH LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE GEORGIA SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
INLAND AND SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING TAKES PLACE. WINDS WILL RUN
10-15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 4 FT OVER OUTER WATERS.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS. WINDS COULD
PEAK IN THE 15 TO 20 KT DURING THESE NIGHTTIME INCREASES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 222348
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
748 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...
WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COASTLINE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING...SLOWLY RETROGRADING TO THE WEST. MEANWHILE A MESOSCALE
LOW SPINS OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WITH BANDS OF CONVERGENCE
SPURRING SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR INLAND GEORGIA COUNTIES TO THE WEST OF
SAVANNAH ALONG THE I-16 CORRIDOR. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY LATE EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS WHILE CONVECTION RE-FIRES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS BRUSHING SOME OF BEACHES OF SOUTH CAROLINA
DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE LAND BREEZE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
AND DISSIPATE...ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO
PUSH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
SET UP INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRUGGLES
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS BEYOND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS
SHIFTING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A MORE SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL QUITE HIGH NEAR
2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD...SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SLOW STORM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...SO OVERALL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LOWER. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVER LAND
BY THE EVENING TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY/TUESDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND.

THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION...ALLOWING THE INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACCORDINGLY. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING
TO 1.75 INCHES OR LESS AND A CAPPING INVERSION PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE MORE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BEFORE INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. HAVE INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAKING IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...HIGHEST CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AREA...WHILE ADVERTISING LOWER POPS IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FARTHER AWAY FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD REMAIN PINNED.

FRIDAY...THE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIP TOWARD THE
COASTLINE...AND EXPECT DECENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A RESULT.
HAVE INDICATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN SUGGESTS MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF SAVANNAH AS LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE
KCHS TERMINAL LASTING GREATER THAN AN HOUR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT FOG OR LOW CLOUDS AT EITHER TERMINAL. ON WED...MODELS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ALONG BY AFTERNOON
WITH LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE GEORGIA SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
INLAND AND SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING TAKES PLACE. WINDS WILL RUN
10-15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 4 FT OVER OUTER WATERS.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS. WINDS COULD
PEAK IN THE 15 TO 20 KT DURING THESE NIGHTTIME INCREASES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 222348
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
748 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...
WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COASTLINE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING...SLOWLY RETROGRADING TO THE WEST. MEANWHILE A MESOSCALE
LOW SPINS OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WITH BANDS OF CONVERGENCE
SPURRING SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR INLAND GEORGIA COUNTIES TO THE WEST OF
SAVANNAH ALONG THE I-16 CORRIDOR. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY LATE EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS WHILE CONVECTION RE-FIRES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS BRUSHING SOME OF BEACHES OF SOUTH CAROLINA
DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE LAND BREEZE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
AND DISSIPATE...ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO
PUSH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
SET UP INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRUGGLES
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS BEYOND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS
SHIFTING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A MORE SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL QUITE HIGH NEAR
2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD...SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SLOW STORM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...SO OVERALL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LOWER. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVER LAND
BY THE EVENING TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY/TUESDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND.

THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION...ALLOWING THE INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACCORDINGLY. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING
TO 1.75 INCHES OR LESS AND A CAPPING INVERSION PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE MORE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BEFORE INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. HAVE INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAKING IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...HIGHEST CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AREA...WHILE ADVERTISING LOWER POPS IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FARTHER AWAY FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD REMAIN PINNED.

FRIDAY...THE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIP TOWARD THE
COASTLINE...AND EXPECT DECENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A RESULT.
HAVE INDICATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN SUGGESTS MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF SAVANNAH AS LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE
KCHS TERMINAL LASTING GREATER THAN AN HOUR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT FOG OR LOW CLOUDS AT EITHER TERMINAL. ON WED...MODELS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ALONG BY AFTERNOON
WITH LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE GEORGIA SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
INLAND AND SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING TAKES PLACE. WINDS WILL RUN
10-15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 4 FT OVER OUTER WATERS.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS. WINDS COULD
PEAK IN THE 15 TO 20 KT DURING THESE NIGHTTIME INCREASES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KFFC 222344
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS MENTIONED IN PREV UPDATED DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LOW PRIMARY
FEATURE WITH SUBTLE/WEAKER VORTICITY CENTER IN SC GA SOUTH OF MACON.
CONVECTION COULD EXPAND A LITTLE MORE IN COVERAGE ESP IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE INSTABILITY HIGHER AND NORTH OF WEAK VORT
CENTER...BUT NOT MUCH. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH A LITTLE WEST WEDNESDAY WHILE FILLING BUT WILL
BE PICKED UP BY WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT. EXPECT SIMILAR COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF STORMS WED AFT/EVENING. PW REMAINS HIGH SO HEAVY RAIN
PRIMARY THREAT. THURSDAY...LARGER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH DIGS WELL
INTO THE STATE SO COULD SEE LARGER PRECIP AREAS AND WITH SOME MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP CLOSER TO GUIDANCE BUT
LIFT AHEAD OF FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS WANES LATER THURSDAY. GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURS MORNING IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BASED ON MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 10-15KTS...DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS
WILL OCCUR BUT MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAN LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF A FRONT. STILL DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ON THE
STRENGTH/PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONT
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. HAVE THEREFORE NOT CHANGED MUCH OF FORECAST...BUT
ADJUSTED SOME POPS AND TEMPS NEAR NEXT TUESDAY WHERE BETTER MODEL
CONSENSUS IS REACHED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL KEEP AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS OR HIGHER THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWEST RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REPRIEVE IS SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INFLUENCES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LONG TERM
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS
EACH AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

MODELED INSTABILITIES STILL LOOK TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
BRIEF SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT ON THE WHOLE STILL EXPECT
THE MAJORITY TO BE SUB-SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS WHERE STORMS
HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT...OR WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION.

IN GENERAL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LONGWAVE TROUGH.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...BUT A FEW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS AGAIN LIKELY TO
FORM AROUND 07Z AND PERSIST THRU 14Z...WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALSO AT THIS TIME. UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF US WEDNESDAY AND STILL EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  71  91 /  30  30  30  50
ATLANTA         71  87  72  87 /  30  30  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     66  82  65  81 /  30  40  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    70  88  70  86 /  30  40  40  50
COLUMBUS        71  89  73  90 /  20  30  20  50
GAINESVILLE     70  86  70  86 /  30  40  30  50
MACON           69  90  71  90 /  30  30  20  40
ROME            70  87  70  87 /  30  40  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  69  88  70  89 /  30  30  20  50
VIDALIA         72  92  73  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....31/BAKER
AVIATION...41










000
FXUS62 KFFC 222344
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS MENTIONED IN PREV UPDATED DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LOW PRIMARY
FEATURE WITH SUBTLE/WEAKER VORTICITY CENTER IN SC GA SOUTH OF MACON.
CONVECTION COULD EXPAND A LITTLE MORE IN COVERAGE ESP IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE INSTABILITY HIGHER AND NORTH OF WEAK VORT
CENTER...BUT NOT MUCH. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH A LITTLE WEST WEDNESDAY WHILE FILLING BUT WILL
BE PICKED UP BY WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT. EXPECT SIMILAR COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF STORMS WED AFT/EVENING. PW REMAINS HIGH SO HEAVY RAIN
PRIMARY THREAT. THURSDAY...LARGER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH DIGS WELL
INTO THE STATE SO COULD SEE LARGER PRECIP AREAS AND WITH SOME MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP CLOSER TO GUIDANCE BUT
LIFT AHEAD OF FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS WANES LATER THURSDAY. GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURS MORNING IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BASED ON MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 10-15KTS...DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS
WILL OCCUR BUT MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAN LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF A FRONT. STILL DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ON THE
STRENGTH/PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONT
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. HAVE THEREFORE NOT CHANGED MUCH OF FORECAST...BUT
ADJUSTED SOME POPS AND TEMPS NEAR NEXT TUESDAY WHERE BETTER MODEL
CONSENSUS IS REACHED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL KEEP AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS OR HIGHER THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWEST RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REPRIEVE IS SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INFLUENCES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LONG TERM
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS
EACH AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

MODELED INSTABILITIES STILL LOOK TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
BRIEF SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT ON THE WHOLE STILL EXPECT
THE MAJORITY TO BE SUB-SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS WHERE STORMS
HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT...OR WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION.

IN GENERAL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LONGWAVE TROUGH.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...BUT A FEW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS AGAIN LIKELY TO
FORM AROUND 07Z AND PERSIST THRU 14Z...WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALSO AT THIS TIME. UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF US WEDNESDAY AND STILL EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  71  91 /  30  30  30  50
ATLANTA         71  87  72  87 /  30  30  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     66  82  65  81 /  30  40  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    70  88  70  86 /  30  40  40  50
COLUMBUS        71  89  73  90 /  20  30  20  50
GAINESVILLE     70  86  70  86 /  30  40  30  50
MACON           69  90  71  90 /  30  30  20  40
ROME            70  87  70  87 /  30  40  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  69  88  70  89 /  30  30  20  50
VIDALIA         72  92  73  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....31/BAKER
AVIATION...41










000
FXUS62 KFFC 222344
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS MENTIONED IN PREV UPDATED DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LOW PRIMARY
FEATURE WITH SUBTLE/WEAKER VORTICITY CENTER IN SC GA SOUTH OF MACON.
CONVECTION COULD EXPAND A LITTLE MORE IN COVERAGE ESP IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE INSTABILITY HIGHER AND NORTH OF WEAK VORT
CENTER...BUT NOT MUCH. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH A LITTLE WEST WEDNESDAY WHILE FILLING BUT WILL
BE PICKED UP BY WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT. EXPECT SIMILAR COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF STORMS WED AFT/EVENING. PW REMAINS HIGH SO HEAVY RAIN
PRIMARY THREAT. THURSDAY...LARGER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH DIGS WELL
INTO THE STATE SO COULD SEE LARGER PRECIP AREAS AND WITH SOME MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP CLOSER TO GUIDANCE BUT
LIFT AHEAD OF FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS WANES LATER THURSDAY. GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURS MORNING IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BASED ON MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 10-15KTS...DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS
WILL OCCUR BUT MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAN LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF A FRONT. STILL DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ON THE
STRENGTH/PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONT
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. HAVE THEREFORE NOT CHANGED MUCH OF FORECAST...BUT
ADJUSTED SOME POPS AND TEMPS NEAR NEXT TUESDAY WHERE BETTER MODEL
CONSENSUS IS REACHED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL KEEP AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS OR HIGHER THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWEST RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REPRIEVE IS SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INFLUENCES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LONG TERM
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS
EACH AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

MODELED INSTABILITIES STILL LOOK TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
BRIEF SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT ON THE WHOLE STILL EXPECT
THE MAJORITY TO BE SUB-SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS WHERE STORMS
HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT...OR WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION.

IN GENERAL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LONGWAVE TROUGH.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...BUT A FEW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS AGAIN LIKELY TO
FORM AROUND 07Z AND PERSIST THRU 14Z...WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALSO AT THIS TIME. UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF US WEDNESDAY AND STILL EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  71  91 /  30  30  30  50
ATLANTA         71  87  72  87 /  30  30  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     66  82  65  81 /  30  40  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    70  88  70  86 /  30  40  40  50
COLUMBUS        71  89  73  90 /  20  30  20  50
GAINESVILLE     70  86  70  86 /  30  40  30  50
MACON           69  90  71  90 /  30  30  20  40
ROME            70  87  70  87 /  30  40  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  69  88  70  89 /  30  30  20  50
VIDALIA         72  92  73  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....31/BAKER
AVIATION...41










000
FXUS62 KFFC 222344
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS MENTIONED IN PREV UPDATED DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LOW PRIMARY
FEATURE WITH SUBTLE/WEAKER VORTICITY CENTER IN SC GA SOUTH OF MACON.
CONVECTION COULD EXPAND A LITTLE MORE IN COVERAGE ESP IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE INSTABILITY HIGHER AND NORTH OF WEAK VORT
CENTER...BUT NOT MUCH. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH A LITTLE WEST WEDNESDAY WHILE FILLING BUT WILL
BE PICKED UP BY WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT. EXPECT SIMILAR COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF STORMS WED AFT/EVENING. PW REMAINS HIGH SO HEAVY RAIN
PRIMARY THREAT. THURSDAY...LARGER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH DIGS WELL
INTO THE STATE SO COULD SEE LARGER PRECIP AREAS AND WITH SOME MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP CLOSER TO GUIDANCE BUT
LIFT AHEAD OF FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS WANES LATER THURSDAY. GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURS MORNING IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BASED ON MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 10-15KTS...DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS
WILL OCCUR BUT MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAN LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF A FRONT. STILL DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ON THE
STRENGTH/PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONT
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. HAVE THEREFORE NOT CHANGED MUCH OF FORECAST...BUT
ADJUSTED SOME POPS AND TEMPS NEAR NEXT TUESDAY WHERE BETTER MODEL
CONSENSUS IS REACHED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL KEEP AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS OR HIGHER THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWEST RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REPRIEVE IS SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INFLUENCES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LONG TERM
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS
EACH AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

MODELED INSTABILITIES STILL LOOK TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
BRIEF SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT ON THE WHOLE STILL EXPECT
THE MAJORITY TO BE SUB-SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS WHERE STORMS
HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT...OR WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION.

IN GENERAL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LONGWAVE TROUGH.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...BUT A FEW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS AGAIN LIKELY TO
FORM AROUND 07Z AND PERSIST THRU 14Z...WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALSO AT THIS TIME. UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF US WEDNESDAY AND STILL EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  71  91 /  30  30  30  50
ATLANTA         71  87  72  87 /  30  30  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     66  82  65  81 /  30  40  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    70  88  70  86 /  30  40  40  50
COLUMBUS        71  89  73  90 /  20  30  20  50
GAINESVILLE     70  86  70  86 /  30  40  30  50
MACON           69  90  71  90 /  30  30  20  40
ROME            70  87  70  87 /  30  40  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  69  88  70  89 /  30  30  20  50
VIDALIA         72  92  73  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....31/BAKER
AVIATION...41










000
FXUS62 KCAE 222311
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
711 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. MUGGY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA. NO PRECIPITATION APPROACHING ANY OF THE
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING GIVEN
THE CURRENT MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A STALLED FRONT IN THE VICINITY.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE
AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES. MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS62 KCAE 222311
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
711 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. MUGGY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA. NO PRECIPITATION APPROACHING ANY OF THE
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING GIVEN
THE CURRENT MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A STALLED FRONT IN THE VICINITY.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE
AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES. MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KCAE 222257
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
657 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS PW VALUES GREATEST TOWARD THE COAST...BUT
VALUES GREAT THAN 2 INCHES ARE COVERING ALL OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH INSOLATION AND LOSS OF EARLIER LOW CLOUDS THE
ATMOSPHERE AS BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND EXPECT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PW VALUES AND STORM
MOTION ONLY AROUND 10 MPH. BOUNDARIES AND MERGING CELLS WILL BE
NEEDED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH NEARLY STATIONARY/SLOW MOVING STORMS. WV LOOP SHOWS
CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA. NO PRECIPITATION APPROACHING ANY OF THE
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING GIVEN
THE CURRENT MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A STALLED FRONT IN THE VICINITY.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE
AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES. MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 222257
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
657 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS PW VALUES GREATEST TOWARD THE COAST...BUT
VALUES GREAT THAN 2 INCHES ARE COVERING ALL OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH INSOLATION AND LOSS OF EARLIER LOW CLOUDS THE
ATMOSPHERE AS BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND EXPECT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PW VALUES AND STORM
MOTION ONLY AROUND 10 MPH. BOUNDARIES AND MERGING CELLS WILL BE
NEEDED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH NEARLY STATIONARY/SLOW MOVING STORMS. WV LOOP SHOWS
CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA. NO PRECIPITATION APPROACHING ANY OF THE
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING GIVEN
THE CURRENT MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A STALLED FRONT IN THE VICINITY.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE
AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES. MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 222257
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
657 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS PW VALUES GREATEST TOWARD THE COAST...BUT
VALUES GREAT THAN 2 INCHES ARE COVERING ALL OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH INSOLATION AND LOSS OF EARLIER LOW CLOUDS THE
ATMOSPHERE AS BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND EXPECT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PW VALUES AND STORM
MOTION ONLY AROUND 10 MPH. BOUNDARIES AND MERGING CELLS WILL BE
NEEDED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH NEARLY STATIONARY/SLOW MOVING STORMS. WV LOOP SHOWS
CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA. NO PRECIPITATION APPROACHING ANY OF THE
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING GIVEN
THE CURRENT MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A STALLED FRONT IN THE VICINITY.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE
AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES. MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 222257
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
657 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS PW VALUES GREATEST TOWARD THE COAST...BUT
VALUES GREAT THAN 2 INCHES ARE COVERING ALL OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH INSOLATION AND LOSS OF EARLIER LOW CLOUDS THE
ATMOSPHERE AS BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND EXPECT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PW VALUES AND STORM
MOTION ONLY AROUND 10 MPH. BOUNDARIES AND MERGING CELLS WILL BE
NEEDED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH NEARLY STATIONARY/SLOW MOVING STORMS. WV LOOP SHOWS
CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA. NO PRECIPITATION APPROACHING ANY OF THE
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING GIVEN
THE CURRENT MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A STALLED FRONT IN THE VICINITY.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE
AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES. MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCHS 222012
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
412 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...
WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COASTLINE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
AFTERNOON...SLOWLY RETROGRADING TO THE WEST. MEANWHILE A MESOSCALE
LOW SPINS OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WITH BANDS OF CONVERGENCE
SPURRING SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR INLAND GA COUNTIES. THE MAIN
CONVERGENCE AXIS HAS BEEN ACROSS CENTRAL SC ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INLAND MOVING SURFACE TROUGH. MORNING CLOUD COVER LIMITED
INSOLATION AND THUS DESTABILIZATION...SO WE HAVE NOT HAD AS MUCH
ENERGY TO WORK WITH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA SO EVEN WEAK BOUNDARIES
ARE GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN SOUTHERN
SC. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
CENTER ACROSS OUR INLAND AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY
MID TO LATE EVENING ACROSS INLAND AREAS WHILE CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO FIRE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
AND DISSIPATE...ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO
PUSH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
SET UP INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRUGGLES
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS BEYOND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS
SHIFTING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A MORE SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL QUITE HIGH NEAR
2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD...SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SLOW STORM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...SO OVERALL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LOWER. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVER LAND
BY THE EVENING TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY/TUESDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND.

THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION...ALLOWING THE INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACCORDINGLY. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING
TO 1.75 INCHES OR LESS AND A CAPPING INVERSION PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE MORE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BEFORE INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. HAVE INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAKING IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...HIGHEST CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AREA...WHILE ADVERTISING LOWER POPS IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FARTHER AWAY FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD REMAIN PINNED.

FRIDAY...THE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIP TOWARD THE
COASTLINE...AND EXPECT DECENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A RESULT.
HAVE INDICATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. MAIN CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCHS DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA. WE ONLY WENT WITH A VICINITY TSRA DUE TO
THE BEST COVERAGE BEING INLAND FROM THE TERMINAL. MAY NEED TO
BRIEFLY AMEND TO ADD SLIGHTLY LOWER VSBY/CIG FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED TSTM. OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ALTHOUGH WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND DIMINISHING WINDS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS OR MVFR FOG. MOST GUIDANCE DOES
NOT SHOW ANY RESTRICTIONS SO WE ONLY HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
A REDUCTION BUT MAINTAINED VFR WITH THE 18Z TAFS. LESSER SHOWER/TSTM
COVERAGE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY SO NO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
INLAND AND SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING TAKES PLACE. WINDS WILL RUN
10-15 KTS WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 4 FT OVER OUTER WATERS.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS. WINDS COULD
PEAK IN THE 15 TO 20 KT DURING THESE NIGHTTIME INCREASES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JRL/WMS
MARINE...JRL/WMS







000
FXUS62 KCHS 222012
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
412 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE WEEK...
WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COASTLINE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
AFTERNOON...SLOWLY RETROGRADING TO THE WEST. MEANWHILE A MESOSCALE
LOW SPINS OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WITH BANDS OF CONVERGENCE
SPURRING SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR INLAND GA COUNTIES. THE MAIN
CONVERGENCE AXIS HAS BEEN ACROSS CENTRAL SC ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INLAND MOVING SURFACE TROUGH. MORNING CLOUD COVER LIMITED
INSOLATION AND THUS DESTABILIZATION...SO WE HAVE NOT HAD AS MUCH
ENERGY TO WORK WITH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA SO EVEN WEAK BOUNDARIES
ARE GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN SOUTHERN
SC. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
CENTER ACROSS OUR INLAND AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY
MID TO LATE EVENING ACROSS INLAND AREAS WHILE CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO FIRE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD
AND DISSIPATE...ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO
PUSH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
SET UP INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE STRUGGLES
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS BEYOND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS
SHIFTING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A MORE SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO...WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL QUITE HIGH NEAR
2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD...SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SLOW STORM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER...STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...SO OVERALL
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LOWER. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVER LAND
BY THE EVENING TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY/TUESDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND.

THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION...ALLOWING THE INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACCORDINGLY. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING
TO 1.75 INCHES OR LESS AND A CAPPING INVERSION PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD BE MORE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BEFORE INCREASING LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES. HAVE INDICATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAKING IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...HIGHEST CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AREA...WHILE ADVERTISING LOWER POPS IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FARTHER AWAY FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES...
WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD REMAIN PINNED.

FRIDAY...THE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIP TOWARD THE
COASTLINE...AND EXPECT DECENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A RESULT.
HAVE INDICATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. MAIN CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCHS DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA. WE ONLY WENT WITH A VICINITY TSRA DUE TO
THE BEST COVERAGE BEING INLAND FROM THE TERMINAL. MAY NEED TO
BRIEFLY AMEND TO ADD SLIGHTLY LOWER VSBY/CIG FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED TSTM. OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ALTHOUGH WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND DIMINISHING WINDS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS OR MVFR FOG. MOST GUIDANCE DOES
NOT SHOW ANY RESTRICTIONS SO WE ONLY HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
A REDUCTION BUT MAINTAINED VFR WITH THE 18Z TAFS. LESSER SHOWER/TSTM
COVERAGE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY SO NO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
INLAND AND SOME NOCTURNAL JETTING TAKES PLACE. WINDS WILL RUN
10-15 KTS WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 4 FT OVER OUTER WATERS.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS. WINDS COULD
PEAK IN THE 15 TO 20 KT DURING THESE NIGHTTIME INCREASES...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JRL/WMS
MARINE...JRL/WMS






000
FXUS62 KFFC 222005
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
405 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS MENTIONED IN PREV UPDATED DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LOW PRIMARY
FEATURE WITH SUBTLE/WEAKER VORTICITY CENTER IN SC GA SOUTH OF MACON.
CONVECTION COULD EXPAND A LITTLE MORE IN COVERAGE ESP IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE INSTABILITY HIGHER AND NORTH OF WEAK VORT
CENTER...BUT NOT MUCH. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH A LITTLE WEST WEDNESDAY WHILE FILLING BUT WILL
BE PICKED UP BY WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT. EXPECT SIMILAR COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF STORMS WED AFT/EVENING. PW REMAINS HIGH SO HEAVY RAIN
PRIMARY THREAT. THURSDAY...LARGER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH DIGS WELL
INTO THE STATE SO COULD SEE LARGER PRECIP AREAS AND WITH SOME MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP CLOSER TO GUIDANCE BUT
LIFT AHEAD OF FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS WANES LATER THURSDAY. GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURS MORNING IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BASED ON MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 10-15KTS...DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS
WILL OCCUR BUT MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAN LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF A FRONT. STILL DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ON THE
STRENGTH/PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONT
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. HAVE THEREFORE NOT CHANGED MUCH OF FORECAST...BUT
ADJUSTED SOME POPS AND TEMPS NEAR NEXT TUESDAY WHERE BETTER MODEL
CONSENSUS IS REACHED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL KEEP AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS OR HIGHER THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWEST RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REPRIEVE IS SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INFLUENCES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LONG TERM
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS
EACH AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

MODELED INSTABILITIES STILL LOOK TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
BRIEF SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT ON THE WHOLE STILL EXPECT
THE MAJORITY TO BE SUB-SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS WHERE STORMS
HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT...OR WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION.

IN GENERAL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LONGWAVE TROUGH.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
FEW TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS BECOME MORE
SCT. IFR CIGS AGAIN LIKELY TO FORM AROUND 09Z AND PERSIST THRU
14Z...WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM LIGHT SE TO SW-W ALSO AT THIS
TIME. UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF US WEDNESDAY
AND STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA/TSRA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONF ON TSRA LIKELIHOOD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HIGH CONF ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  71  91 /  30  30  30  50
ATLANTA         71  87  72  87 /  30  30  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     66  82  65  81 /  30  40  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    70  88  70  86 /  30  40  40  50
COLUMBUS        71  89  73  90 /  20  30  20  50
GAINESVILLE     70  86  70  86 /  30  40  30  50
MACON           69  90  71  90 /  30  30  20  40
ROME            70  87  70  87 /  30  40  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  69  88  70  89 /  30  30  20  50
VIDALIA         72  92  73  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....31/BAKER
AVIATION...SNELSON





000
FXUS62 KFFC 222005
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
405 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS MENTIONED IN PREV UPDATED DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LOW PRIMARY
FEATURE WITH SUBTLE/WEAKER VORTICITY CENTER IN SC GA SOUTH OF MACON.
CONVECTION COULD EXPAND A LITTLE MORE IN COVERAGE ESP IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE INSTABILITY HIGHER AND NORTH OF WEAK VORT
CENTER...BUT NOT MUCH. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH A LITTLE WEST WEDNESDAY WHILE FILLING BUT WILL
BE PICKED UP BY WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT. EXPECT SIMILAR COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF STORMS WED AFT/EVENING. PW REMAINS HIGH SO HEAVY RAIN
PRIMARY THREAT. THURSDAY...LARGER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH DIGS WELL
INTO THE STATE SO COULD SEE LARGER PRECIP AREAS AND WITH SOME MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP CLOSER TO GUIDANCE BUT
LIFT AHEAD OF FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS WANES LATER THURSDAY. GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURS MORNING IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BASED ON MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 10-15KTS...DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS
WILL OCCUR BUT MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAN LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF A FRONT. STILL DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ON THE
STRENGTH/PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONT
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. HAVE THEREFORE NOT CHANGED MUCH OF FORECAST...BUT
ADJUSTED SOME POPS AND TEMPS NEAR NEXT TUESDAY WHERE BETTER MODEL
CONSENSUS IS REACHED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL KEEP AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS OR HIGHER THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWEST RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REPRIEVE IS SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INFLUENCES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LONG TERM
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS
EACH AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

MODELED INSTABILITIES STILL LOOK TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
BRIEF SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT ON THE WHOLE STILL EXPECT
THE MAJORITY TO BE SUB-SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS WHERE STORMS
HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT...OR WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION.

IN GENERAL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LONGWAVE TROUGH.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
FEW TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS BECOME MORE
SCT. IFR CIGS AGAIN LIKELY TO FORM AROUND 09Z AND PERSIST THRU
14Z...WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM LIGHT SE TO SW-W ALSO AT THIS
TIME. UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF US WEDNESDAY
AND STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA/TSRA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONF ON TSRA LIKELIHOOD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HIGH CONF ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  71  91 /  30  30  30  50
ATLANTA         71  87  72  87 /  30  30  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     66  82  65  81 /  30  40  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    70  88  70  86 /  30  40  40  50
COLUMBUS        71  89  73  90 /  20  30  20  50
GAINESVILLE     70  86  70  86 /  30  40  30  50
MACON           69  90  71  90 /  30  30  20  40
ROME            70  87  70  87 /  30  40  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  69  88  70  89 /  30  30  20  50
VIDALIA         72  92  73  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....31/BAKER
AVIATION...SNELSON






000
FXUS62 KCAE 221855
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS PW VALUES GREATEST TOWARD THE COAST...BUT
VALUES GREAT THAN 2 INCHES ARE COVERING ALL OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH INSOLATION AND LOSS OF EARLIER LOW CLOUDS THE
ATMOSPHERE AS BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND EXPECT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PW VALUES AND STORM
MOTION ONLY AROUND 10 MPH. BOUNDARIES AND MERGING CELLS WILL BE
NEEDED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH NEARLY STATIONARY/SLOW MOVING STORMS. WV LOOP SHOWS
CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN A BAND FROM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AS
THEY MOVE NORTHWEST. SATELLITE SHOWS THE LEAST AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS
ALONG THE CSRA AND SRN MIDLANDS REGION. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXPECT A CONTINUED TREND OF DEVELOPING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH INITIALLY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAT SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA WILL MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT
5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77








000
FXUS62 KCAE 221855
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS PW VALUES GREATEST TOWARD THE COAST...BUT
VALUES GREAT THAN 2 INCHES ARE COVERING ALL OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH INSOLATION AND LOSS OF EARLIER LOW CLOUDS THE
ATMOSPHERE AS BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND EXPECT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PW VALUES AND STORM
MOTION ONLY AROUND 10 MPH. BOUNDARIES AND MERGING CELLS WILL BE
NEEDED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH NEARLY STATIONARY/SLOW MOVING STORMS. WV LOOP SHOWS
CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN A BAND FROM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AS
THEY MOVE NORTHWEST. SATELLITE SHOWS THE LEAST AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS
ALONG THE CSRA AND SRN MIDLANDS REGION. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXPECT A CONTINUED TREND OF DEVELOPING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH INITIALLY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAT SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA WILL MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT
5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCHS 221821
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
221 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HAS THUS FAR LIMITED INSOLATION...WITH
TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. PARTIAL BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THOUGH WE DID LOWER HIGH
TEMPS BY ABOUT TWO DEGREES BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT MOSTLY
CLOUDY WILL BE THE RULE. THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY
RETROGRADE TODAY THOUGH DEEP...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. 12Z RAOB SHOWED A SHALLOW WEDGE OF NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE THOUGH THIS SHOULD MIX OUT AS THE SEA BREEZE GETS GOING
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONGOING SHOWERS ACROSS CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY
COUNTIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...THEN THE BEST COVERAGE SHIFTS INTO
INLAND SC AS THE 850-700 MB CONVERGENCE AXIS LIFTS NORTH. SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROTATE INTO INLAND SOUTHEAST GA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE BRING IN SOME MODERATE POPS IN THAT
REGION LATER IN THE DAY. GIVEN PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES...FAIRLY SLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD AGAIN BE A CONCERN TODAY. FORTUNATELY...MANY OF
THE AREAS THAT PICKED UP SUBSTANTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL ON MONDAY MAY
BE ON THE DRY SIDE TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY WEST TOWARD
NEW ORLEANS WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA DISSIPATING. ANY EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY WITH CONVECTION
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER 70S AT
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE DELTA OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL OPEN AS IT SLOWLY
RETROGRADES...ALLOWING RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC TO EXPAND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL WHILE A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND. THIS IS A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE REGION...THUS EXPECT MAINLY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SLIGHT VEERING OF THE FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS AT NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING THE INLAND TROUGH TO
STRENGTHEN WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION. A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRIER
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LATER IN THE DAY IN VICINITY OF THE INLAND TROUGH
AND CHANNELED VORTICITY ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THUS...THE
FORECAST INDICATES A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CHARLESTON QUAD-COUNTY AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN PINNED. LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE INLAND TROUGH WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE
COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WITH THE FORECAST
INDICATING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. MAIN CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCHS DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA. WE ONLY WENT WITH A VICINITY TSRA DUE TO
THE BEST COVERAGE BEING INLAND FROM THE TERMINAL. MAY NEED TO
BRIEFLY AMEND TO ADD SLIGHTLY LOWER VSBY/CIG FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED TSTM. OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ALTHOUGH WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND DIMINISHING WINDS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS OR MVFR FOG. MOST GUIDANCE DOES
NOT SHOW ANY RESTRICTIONS SO WE ONLY HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
A REDUCTION BUT MAINTAINED VFR WITH THE 18Z TAFS. LESSER SHOWER/TSTM
COVERAGE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY SO NO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST THIS
MORNING WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS...GENERALLY PEAKING NEAR
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE...AND POSSIBLY ALONG
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS MOSTLY 3 FT OR
LESS BUT POSSIBLY REACHING 4 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE THE SEA BREEZE...AND
AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS...PUSHING WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...JAQ/RJB







000
FXUS62 KCHS 221821
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
221 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HAS THUS FAR LIMITED INSOLATION...WITH
TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. PARTIAL BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THOUGH WE DID LOWER HIGH
TEMPS BY ABOUT TWO DEGREES BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT MOSTLY
CLOUDY WILL BE THE RULE. THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY
RETROGRADE TODAY THOUGH DEEP...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. 12Z RAOB SHOWED A SHALLOW WEDGE OF NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE THOUGH THIS SHOULD MIX OUT AS THE SEA BREEZE GETS GOING
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONGOING SHOWERS ACROSS CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY
COUNTIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...THEN THE BEST COVERAGE SHIFTS INTO
INLAND SC AS THE 850-700 MB CONVERGENCE AXIS LIFTS NORTH. SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROTATE INTO INLAND SOUTHEAST GA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE BRING IN SOME MODERATE POPS IN THAT
REGION LATER IN THE DAY. GIVEN PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES...FAIRLY SLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD AGAIN BE A CONCERN TODAY. FORTUNATELY...MANY OF
THE AREAS THAT PICKED UP SUBSTANTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL ON MONDAY MAY
BE ON THE DRY SIDE TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY WEST TOWARD
NEW ORLEANS WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA DISSIPATING. ANY EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY WITH CONVECTION
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER 70S AT
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE DELTA OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL OPEN AS IT SLOWLY
RETROGRADES...ALLOWING RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC TO EXPAND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL WHILE A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND. THIS IS A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE REGION...THUS EXPECT MAINLY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SLIGHT VEERING OF THE FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS AT NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING THE INLAND TROUGH TO
STRENGTHEN WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION. A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRIER
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LATER IN THE DAY IN VICINITY OF THE INLAND TROUGH
AND CHANNELED VORTICITY ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THUS...THE
FORECAST INDICATES A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CHARLESTON QUAD-COUNTY AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN PINNED. LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE INLAND TROUGH WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE
COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WITH THE FORECAST
INDICATING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. MAIN CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCHS DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA. WE ONLY WENT WITH A VICINITY TSRA DUE TO
THE BEST COVERAGE BEING INLAND FROM THE TERMINAL. MAY NEED TO
BRIEFLY AMEND TO ADD SLIGHTLY LOWER VSBY/CIG FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED TSTM. OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ALTHOUGH WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND DIMINISHING WINDS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS OR MVFR FOG. MOST GUIDANCE DOES
NOT SHOW ANY RESTRICTIONS SO WE ONLY HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
A REDUCTION BUT MAINTAINED VFR WITH THE 18Z TAFS. LESSER SHOWER/TSTM
COVERAGE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY SO NO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST THIS
MORNING WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS...GENERALLY PEAKING NEAR
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE...AND POSSIBLY ALONG
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS MOSTLY 3 FT OR
LESS BUT POSSIBLY REACHING 4 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE THE SEA BREEZE...AND
AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS...PUSHING WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...JAQ/RJB






000
FXUS62 KCAE 221815
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
215 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS VERY MOIST. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS ABOVE 2 INCHES...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES RISE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS. SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EAST MIDLANDS AND NUMEROUS OTHER
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE CONVERGENCE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY LIFT NORTH INTO EASTERN GEORGIA/WESTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA ENHANCING LIFT BUT OVERALL...LIFT APPEARS WEAKER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AGAIN DUE
TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOW MOVING STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND
GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE
DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER WITH LESS CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW/WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WARMER THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK...A LITTLE STRONGER TO THE EAST...AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. CHANCE POPS WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MED RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO PERSIST WITH A CLOSED
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
TROUGHING CONTINUING IN BETWEEN...MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SERIES OF S/W TO RE-DEVELOP/DEEPEN
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT NEAR THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN STALLING NEAR THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN A BAND FROM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AS
THEY MOVE NORTHWEST. SATELLITE SHOWS THE LEAST AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS
ALONG THE CSRA AND SRN MIDLANDS REGION. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXPECT A CONTINUED TREND OF DEVELOPING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH INITIALLY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAT SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA WILL MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT
5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KFFC 221801 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
201 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FORECAST MOSTLY ON TRACK. A LITTLE COOLER START THEN
FORECAST BUT WITH BREAKS IN CLOUDS...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BACK TOWARD
ORIGINAL MAX TEMPS. CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE ON PERIPHERY OF
THICK MORNING CLOUDS WHICH COVERED ALL BUT FAR NORTH AND SOUTH
PARTS OF CWA EARLIER. EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS
YESTERDAY AND MAINLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. PW ON MORNING SOUNDING
JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AND QUITE HIGH BUT BELOW 90TH PERCENTILE. ALSO
NOTICING WEAK VORTICITY CENTER IN SW GA IN SAT IMAGERY. NOT SURE
IT WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT BUT WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF STRONG STORMS
DEVELOP OVER MIDDLE GA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD NOT SEE ANY SEVERE
BUT A COUPLE COULD APPROACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS. MORE ON REST OF
FCST LATER.

SNELSON


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE CWA WILL SHIFT
WESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
SHIFT INTO NORTH GEORGIA TODAY AND TONIGHT DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WET DAY FOR PARTS OF THE CWA
TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...BUT THE RISK OF RAIN WILL
DECREASE SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLOWLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

17

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL KEEP AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS OR HIGHER THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWEST RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REPRIEVE IS SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INFLUENCES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LONG TERM
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS
EACH AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

MODELED INSTABILITIES STILL LOOK TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
BRIEF SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT ON THE WHOLE STILL EXPECT
THE MAJORITY TO BE SUB-SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS WHERE STORMS
HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT...OR WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION.

IN GENERAL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LONGWAVE TROUGH.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
FEW TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS BECOME MORE
SCT. IFR CIGS AGAIN LIKELY TO FORM AROUND 09Z AND PERSIST THRU
14Z...WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM LIGHT SE TO SW-W ALSO AT THIS
TIME. UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF US WEDNESDAY
AND STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA/TSRA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONF ON TSRA LIKELIHOOD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HIGH CONF ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  71  91  71 /  60  50  30  30
ATLANTA         82  72  88  72 /  50  40  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     79  67  84  66 /  60  50  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    83  69  88  70 /  60  50  40  40
COLUMBUS        85  72  92  73 /  60  40  30  20
GAINESVILLE     82  71  86  71 /  60  50  40  30
MACON           84  70  91  72 /  50  40  30  20
ROME            84  70  89  71 /  60  50  40  40
PEACHTREE CITY  82  70  89  70 /  50  40  30  20
VIDALIA         89  73  94  74 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...SNELSON





000
FXUS62 KFFC 221801 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
201 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FORECAST MOSTLY ON TRACK. A LITTLE COOLER START THEN
FORECAST BUT WITH BREAKS IN CLOUDS...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BACK TOWARD
ORIGINAL MAX TEMPS. CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE ON PERIPHERY OF
THICK MORNING CLOUDS WHICH COVERED ALL BUT FAR NORTH AND SOUTH
PARTS OF CWA EARLIER. EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS
YESTERDAY AND MAINLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. PW ON MORNING SOUNDING
JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AND QUITE HIGH BUT BELOW 90TH PERCENTILE. ALSO
NOTICING WEAK VORTICITY CENTER IN SW GA IN SAT IMAGERY. NOT SURE
IT WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT BUT WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF STRONG STORMS
DEVELOP OVER MIDDLE GA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD NOT SEE ANY SEVERE
BUT A COUPLE COULD APPROACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS. MORE ON REST OF
FCST LATER.

SNELSON


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE CWA WILL SHIFT
WESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
SHIFT INTO NORTH GEORGIA TODAY AND TONIGHT DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WET DAY FOR PARTS OF THE CWA
TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...BUT THE RISK OF RAIN WILL
DECREASE SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLOWLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

17

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL KEEP AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS OR HIGHER THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWEST RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REPRIEVE IS SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INFLUENCES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LONG TERM
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS
EACH AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

MODELED INSTABILITIES STILL LOOK TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
BRIEF SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT ON THE WHOLE STILL EXPECT
THE MAJORITY TO BE SUB-SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS WHERE STORMS
HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT...OR WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION.

IN GENERAL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LONGWAVE TROUGH.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
FEW TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS BECOME MORE
SCT. IFR CIGS AGAIN LIKELY TO FORM AROUND 09Z AND PERSIST THRU
14Z...WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM LIGHT SE TO SW-W ALSO AT THIS
TIME. UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF US WEDNESDAY
AND STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA/TSRA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONF ON TSRA LIKELIHOOD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HIGH CONF ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  71  91  71 /  60  50  30  30
ATLANTA         82  72  88  72 /  50  40  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     79  67  84  66 /  60  50  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    83  69  88  70 /  60  50  40  40
COLUMBUS        85  72  92  73 /  60  40  30  20
GAINESVILLE     82  71  86  71 /  60  50  40  30
MACON           84  70  91  72 /  50  40  30  20
ROME            84  70  89  71 /  60  50  40  40
PEACHTREE CITY  82  70  89  70 /  50  40  30  20
VIDALIA         89  73  94  74 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...SNELSON





000
FXUS62 KFFC 221801 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
201 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FORECAST MOSTLY ON TRACK. A LITTLE COOLER START THEN
FORECAST BUT WITH BREAKS IN CLOUDS...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BACK TOWARD
ORIGINAL MAX TEMPS. CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE ON PERIPHERY OF
THICK MORNING CLOUDS WHICH COVERED ALL BUT FAR NORTH AND SOUTH
PARTS OF CWA EARLIER. EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS
YESTERDAY AND MAINLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. PW ON MORNING SOUNDING
JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AND QUITE HIGH BUT BELOW 90TH PERCENTILE. ALSO
NOTICING WEAK VORTICITY CENTER IN SW GA IN SAT IMAGERY. NOT SURE
IT WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT BUT WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF STRONG STORMS
DEVELOP OVER MIDDLE GA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD NOT SEE ANY SEVERE
BUT A COUPLE COULD APPROACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS. MORE ON REST OF
FCST LATER.

SNELSON


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE CWA WILL SHIFT
WESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
SHIFT INTO NORTH GEORGIA TODAY AND TONIGHT DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WET DAY FOR PARTS OF THE CWA
TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...BUT THE RISK OF RAIN WILL
DECREASE SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLOWLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

17

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL KEEP AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS OR HIGHER THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWEST RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REPRIEVE IS SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INFLUENCES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LONG TERM
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS
EACH AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

MODELED INSTABILITIES STILL LOOK TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
BRIEF SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT ON THE WHOLE STILL EXPECT
THE MAJORITY TO BE SUB-SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS WHERE STORMS
HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT...OR WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION.

IN GENERAL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LONGWAVE TROUGH.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
FEW TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS BECOME MORE
SCT. IFR CIGS AGAIN LIKELY TO FORM AROUND 09Z AND PERSIST THRU
14Z...WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM LIGHT SE TO SW-W ALSO AT THIS
TIME. UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF US WEDNESDAY
AND STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA/TSRA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONF ON TSRA LIKELIHOOD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HIGH CONF ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  71  91  71 /  60  50  30  30
ATLANTA         82  72  88  72 /  50  40  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     79  67  84  66 /  60  50  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    83  69  88  70 /  60  50  40  40
COLUMBUS        85  72  92  73 /  60  40  30  20
GAINESVILLE     82  71  86  71 /  60  50  40  30
MACON           84  70  91  72 /  50  40  30  20
ROME            84  70  89  71 /  60  50  40  40
PEACHTREE CITY  82  70  89  70 /  50  40  30  20
VIDALIA         89  73  94  74 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...SNELSON





000
FXUS62 KFFC 221801 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
201 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FORECAST MOSTLY ON TRACK. A LITTLE COOLER START THEN
FORECAST BUT WITH BREAKS IN CLOUDS...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BACK TOWARD
ORIGINAL MAX TEMPS. CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE ON PERIPHERY OF
THICK MORNING CLOUDS WHICH COVERED ALL BUT FAR NORTH AND SOUTH
PARTS OF CWA EARLIER. EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS
YESTERDAY AND MAINLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. PW ON MORNING SOUNDING
JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AND QUITE HIGH BUT BELOW 90TH PERCENTILE. ALSO
NOTICING WEAK VORTICITY CENTER IN SW GA IN SAT IMAGERY. NOT SURE
IT WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT BUT WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF STRONG STORMS
DEVELOP OVER MIDDLE GA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD NOT SEE ANY SEVERE
BUT A COUPLE COULD APPROACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS. MORE ON REST OF
FCST LATER.

SNELSON


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE CWA WILL SHIFT
WESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
SHIFT INTO NORTH GEORGIA TODAY AND TONIGHT DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WET DAY FOR PARTS OF THE CWA
TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...BUT THE RISK OF RAIN WILL
DECREASE SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLOWLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

17

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL KEEP AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS OR HIGHER THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWEST RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REPRIEVE IS SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INFLUENCES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LONG TERM
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS
EACH AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

MODELED INSTABILITIES STILL LOOK TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
BRIEF SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT ON THE WHOLE STILL EXPECT
THE MAJORITY TO BE SUB-SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS WHERE STORMS
HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT...OR WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION.

IN GENERAL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LONGWAVE TROUGH.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
FEW TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS BECOME MORE
SCT. IFR CIGS AGAIN LIKELY TO FORM AROUND 09Z AND PERSIST THRU
14Z...WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM LIGHT SE TO SW-W ALSO AT THIS
TIME. UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF US WEDNESDAY
AND STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA/TSRA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONF ON TSRA LIKELIHOOD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HIGH CONF ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  71  91  71 /  60  50  30  30
ATLANTA         82  72  88  72 /  50  40  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     79  67  84  66 /  60  50  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    83  69  88  70 /  60  50  40  40
COLUMBUS        85  72  92  73 /  60  40  30  20
GAINESVILLE     82  71  86  71 /  60  50  40  30
MACON           84  70  91  72 /  50  40  30  20
ROME            84  70  89  71 /  60  50  40  40
PEACHTREE CITY  82  70  89  70 /  50  40  30  20
VIDALIA         89  73  94  74 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...SNELSON





000
FXUS62 KCHS 221522
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1122 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HAS THUS FAR LIMITED INSOLATION...WITH
TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. PARTIAL BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THOUGH WE DID LOWER HIGH
TEMPS BY ABOUT TWO DEGREES BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT MOSTLY
CLOUDY WILL BE THE RULE. THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY
RETROGRADE TODAY THOUGH DEEP...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. 12Z RAOB SHOWED A SHALLOW WEDGE OF NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE THOUGH THIS SHOULD MIX OUT AS THE SEA BREEZE GETS GOING
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONGOING SHOWERS ACROSS CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY
COUNTIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...THEN THE BEST COVERAGE SHIFTS INTO
INLAND SC AS THE 850-700 MB CONVERGENCE AXIS LIFTS NORTH. SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROTATE INTO INLAND SOUTHEAST GA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE BRING IN SOME MODERATE POPS IN THAT
REGION LATER IN THE DAY. GIVEN PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES...FAIRLY SLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD AGAIN BE A CONCERN TODAY. FORTUNATELY...MANY OF
THE AREAS THAT PICKED UP SUBSTANTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL ON MONDAY MAY
BE ON THE DRY SIDE TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY WEST TOWARD
NEW ORLEANS WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA DISSIPATING. ANY EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY WITH CONVECTION
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER 70S AT
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE DELTA OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL OPEN AS IT SLOWLY
RETROGRADES...ALLOWING RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC TO EXPAND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL WHILE A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND. THIS IS A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE REGION...THUS EXPECT MAINLY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SLIGHT VEERING OF THE FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS AT NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING THE INLAND TROUGH TO
STRENGTHEN WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION. A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRIER
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LATER IN THE DAY IN VICINITY OF THE INLAND TROUGH
AND CHANNELED VORTICITY ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THUS...THE
FORECAST INDICATES A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CHARLESTON QUAD-COUNTY AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN PINNED. LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE INLAND TROUGH WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE
COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WITH THE FORECAST
INDICATING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN LOW CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 17Z. GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL...HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS WITH SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH 17Z. THEN...HAVE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FROM 17-21Z AS CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/TIMING IS SOMEWHAT REDUCED.
THE GREATEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD THEN SHIFT INLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY BRINGING AND END TO CONVECTION AT THE
TERMINAL.

KSAV...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN LOW CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 15Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE OF ANY DIRECT IMPACT AT
THE TERMINAL IS LOW AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST
UNTIL TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST THIS
MORNING WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS...GENERALLY PEAKING NEAR
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE...AND POSSIBLY ALONG
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS MOSTLY 3 FT OR
LESS BUT POSSIBLY REACHING 4 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE THE SEA BREEZE...AND
AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS...PUSHING WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JAQ/RJB






000
FXUS62 KCHS 221156
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
756 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA THIS MORNING SHOULD
SHIFT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA
SHIFTS WEST. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA THIS
MORNING AND THEN INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN.
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 2.25 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CAROLINA. IN ADDITION...WEAK LOW- MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING STORMS AND THUS HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 90
AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY WEST TOWARD
NEW ORLEANS WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA DISSIPATING. ANY EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY WITH CONVECTION
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER 70S
AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE DELTA OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL OPEN AS IT SLOWLY
RETROGRADES...ALLOWING RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC TO EXPAND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL WHILE A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND. THIS IS A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE REGION...THUS EXPECT MAINLY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SLIGHT VEERING OF THE FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS AT NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING THE INLAND TROUGH TO
STRENGTHEN WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION. A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRIER
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LATER IN THE DAY IN VICINITY OF THE INLAND TROUGH
AND CHANNELED VORTICITY ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THUS...THE
FORECAST INDICATES A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CHARLESTON QUAD-COUNTY AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN PINNED. LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE INLAND TROUGH WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE
COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WITH THE FORECAST
INDICATING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN LOW CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 17Z. GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL...HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS WITH SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH 17Z. THEN...HAVE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FROM 17-21Z AS CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/TIMING IS SOMEWHAT REDUCED.
THE GREATEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD THEN SHIFT INLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY BRINGING AND END TO CONVECTION AT THE
TERMINAL.

KSAV...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN LOW CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 15Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE OF ANY DIRECT IMPACT AT
THE TERMINAL IS LOW AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST
UNTIL TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST THIS
MORNING WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS...GENERALLY PEAKING NEAR
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE...AND POSSIBLY ALONG
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS MOSTLY 3 FT OR
LESS BUT POSSIBLY REACHING 4 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE THE SEA BREEZE...AND
AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS...PUSHING WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...RJB/JAQ







000
FXUS62 KCHS 221156
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
756 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA THIS MORNING SHOULD
SHIFT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA
SHIFTS WEST. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA THIS
MORNING AND THEN INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN.
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 2.25 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CAROLINA. IN ADDITION...WEAK LOW- MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING STORMS AND THUS HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 90
AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY WEST TOWARD
NEW ORLEANS WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA DISSIPATING. ANY EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY WITH CONVECTION
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER 70S
AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE DELTA OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL OPEN AS IT SLOWLY
RETROGRADES...ALLOWING RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC TO EXPAND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL WHILE A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND. THIS IS A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE REGION...THUS EXPECT MAINLY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SLIGHT VEERING OF THE FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS AT NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING THE INLAND TROUGH TO
STRENGTHEN WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION. A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRIER
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LATER IN THE DAY IN VICINITY OF THE INLAND TROUGH
AND CHANNELED VORTICITY ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THUS...THE
FORECAST INDICATES A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CHARLESTON QUAD-COUNTY AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN PINNED. LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE INLAND TROUGH WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE
COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WITH THE FORECAST
INDICATING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN LOW CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 17Z. GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL...HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS WITH SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH 17Z. THEN...HAVE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FROM 17-21Z AS CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/TIMING IS SOMEWHAT REDUCED.
THE GREATEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD THEN SHIFT INLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY BRINGING AND END TO CONVECTION AT THE
TERMINAL.

KSAV...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN LOW CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 15Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE OF ANY DIRECT IMPACT AT
THE TERMINAL IS LOW AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST
UNTIL TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST THIS
MORNING WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS...GENERALLY PEAKING NEAR
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE...AND POSSIBLY ALONG
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS MOSTLY 3 FT OR
LESS BUT POSSIBLY REACHING 4 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE THE SEA BREEZE...AND
AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS...PUSHING WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...RJB/JAQ







000
FXUS62 KCHS 221156
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
756 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA THIS MORNING SHOULD
SHIFT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA
SHIFTS WEST. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA THIS
MORNING AND THEN INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN.
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 2.25 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CAROLINA. IN ADDITION...WEAK LOW- MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING STORMS AND THUS HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 90
AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY WEST TOWARD
NEW ORLEANS WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA DISSIPATING. ANY EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY WITH CONVECTION
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER 70S
AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE DELTA OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL OPEN AS IT SLOWLY
RETROGRADES...ALLOWING RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC TO EXPAND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL WHILE A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND. THIS IS A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE REGION...THUS EXPECT MAINLY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SLIGHT VEERING OF THE FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS AT NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING THE INLAND TROUGH TO
STRENGTHEN WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION. A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRIER
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LATER IN THE DAY IN VICINITY OF THE INLAND TROUGH
AND CHANNELED VORTICITY ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THUS...THE
FORECAST INDICATES A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CHARLESTON QUAD-COUNTY AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN PINNED. LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE INLAND TROUGH WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE
COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WITH THE FORECAST
INDICATING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN LOW CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 17Z. GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL...HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS WITH SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH 17Z. THEN...HAVE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FROM 17-21Z AS CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/TIMING IS SOMEWHAT REDUCED.
THE GREATEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD THEN SHIFT INLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY BRINGING AND END TO CONVECTION AT THE
TERMINAL.

KSAV...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN LOW CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 15Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE OF ANY DIRECT IMPACT AT
THE TERMINAL IS LOW AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST
UNTIL TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST THIS
MORNING WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS...GENERALLY PEAKING NEAR
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE...AND POSSIBLY ALONG
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS MOSTLY 3 FT OR
LESS BUT POSSIBLY REACHING 4 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE THE SEA BREEZE...AND
AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS...PUSHING WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...RJB/JAQ







000
FXUS62 KCHS 221156
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
756 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA THIS MORNING SHOULD
SHIFT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA
SHIFTS WEST. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA THIS
MORNING AND THEN INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN.
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 2.25 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CAROLINA. IN ADDITION...WEAK LOW- MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING STORMS AND THUS HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 90
AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY WEST TOWARD
NEW ORLEANS WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA DISSIPATING. ANY EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY WITH CONVECTION
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER 70S
AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE DELTA OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL OPEN AS IT SLOWLY
RETROGRADES...ALLOWING RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC TO EXPAND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL WHILE A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND. THIS IS A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE REGION...THUS EXPECT MAINLY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SLIGHT VEERING OF THE FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS AT NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DIG INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING THE INLAND TROUGH TO
STRENGTHEN WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION. A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRIER
CONDITIONS...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LATER IN THE DAY IN VICINITY OF THE INLAND TROUGH
AND CHANNELED VORTICITY ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THUS...THE
FORECAST INDICATES A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CHARLESTON QUAD-COUNTY AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN PINNED. LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE INLAND TROUGH WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE
COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WITH THE FORECAST
INDICATING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...AS RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT NEARS AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN LOW CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 17Z. GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL...HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS WITH SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH 17Z. THEN...HAVE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FROM 17-21Z AS CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/TIMING IS SOMEWHAT REDUCED.
THE GREATEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD THEN SHIFT INLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY BRINGING AND END TO CONVECTION AT THE
TERMINAL.

KSAV...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN LOW CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 15Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE OF ANY DIRECT IMPACT AT
THE TERMINAL IS LOW AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST
UNTIL TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST THIS
MORNING WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS...GENERALLY PEAKING NEAR
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE...AND POSSIBLY ALONG
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS MOSTLY 3 FT OR
LESS BUT POSSIBLY REACHING 4 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
INLAND. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE DUE THE SEA BREEZE...AND
AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS...PUSHING WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4
FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...RJB/JAQ







000
FXUS62 KFFC 221127
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
727 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE CWA WILL SHIFT
WESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
SHIFT INTO NORTH GEORGIA TODAY AND TONIGHT DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WET DAY FOR PARTS OF THE CWA
TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...BUT THE RISK OF RAIN WILL
DECREASE SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLOWLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

17

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL KEEP AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS OR HIGHER THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWEST RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REPRIEVE IS SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INFLUENCES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LONG TERM
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS
EACH AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

MODELED INSTABILITIES STILL LOOK TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
BRIEF SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT ON THE WHOLE STILL EXPECT
THE MAJORITY TO BE SUB-SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS WHERE STORMS
HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT...OR WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION.

IN GENERAL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LONGWAVE TROUGH.

31


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL GA TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE BEST CHANCES BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO
NEAR CALM THROUGH THE FORECAST. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER
09Z TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND PRECIP TIMING
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  71  91  71 /  60  50  30  30
ATLANTA         84  72  88  72 /  50  40  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     81  67  84  66 /  60  50  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    84  69  88  70 /  60  50  40  40
COLUMBUS        85  72  92  73 /  50  40  30  20
GAINESVILLE     83  71  86  71 /  60  50  40  30
MACON           85  70  91  72 /  50  40  30  20
ROME            85  70  89  71 /  60  50  40  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  70  89  70 /  50  40  30  20
VIDALIA         90  73  94  74 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...17








000
FXUS62 KFFC 221127
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
727 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE CWA WILL SHIFT
WESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
SHIFT INTO NORTH GEORGIA TODAY AND TONIGHT DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WET DAY FOR PARTS OF THE CWA
TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...BUT THE RISK OF RAIN WILL
DECREASE SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLOWLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

17

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL KEEP AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS OR HIGHER THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWEST RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REPRIEVE IS SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INFLUENCES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LONG TERM
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS
EACH AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

MODELED INSTABILITIES STILL LOOK TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
BRIEF SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT ON THE WHOLE STILL EXPECT
THE MAJORITY TO BE SUB-SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS WHERE STORMS
HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT...OR WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION.

IN GENERAL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LONGWAVE TROUGH.

31


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL GA TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE BEST CHANCES BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO
NEAR CALM THROUGH THE FORECAST. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER
09Z TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND PRECIP TIMING
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  71  91  71 /  60  50  30  30
ATLANTA         84  72  88  72 /  50  40  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     81  67  84  66 /  60  50  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    84  69  88  70 /  60  50  40  40
COLUMBUS        85  72  92  73 /  50  40  30  20
GAINESVILLE     83  71  86  71 /  60  50  40  30
MACON           85  70  91  72 /  50  40  30  20
ROME            85  70  89  71 /  60  50  40  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  70  89  70 /  50  40  30  20
VIDALIA         90  73  94  74 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...17








000
FXUS62 KFFC 221127
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
727 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE CWA WILL SHIFT
WESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
SHIFT INTO NORTH GEORGIA TODAY AND TONIGHT DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WET DAY FOR PARTS OF THE CWA
TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...BUT THE RISK OF RAIN WILL
DECREASE SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLOWLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

17

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL KEEP AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS OR HIGHER THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWEST RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REPRIEVE IS SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INFLUENCES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LONG TERM
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS
EACH AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

MODELED INSTABILITIES STILL LOOK TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
BRIEF SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT ON THE WHOLE STILL EXPECT
THE MAJORITY TO BE SUB-SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS WHERE STORMS
HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT...OR WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION.

IN GENERAL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LONGWAVE TROUGH.

31


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL GA TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE BEST CHANCES BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO
NEAR CALM THROUGH THE FORECAST. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER
09Z TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND PRECIP TIMING
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  71  91  71 /  60  50  30  30
ATLANTA         84  72  88  72 /  50  40  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     81  67  84  66 /  60  50  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    84  69  88  70 /  60  50  40  40
COLUMBUS        85  72  92  73 /  50  40  30  20
GAINESVILLE     83  71  86  71 /  60  50  40  30
MACON           85  70  91  72 /  50  40  30  20
ROME            85  70  89  71 /  60  50  40  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  70  89  70 /  50  40  30  20
VIDALIA         90  73  94  74 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...17








000
FXUS62 KFFC 221127
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
727 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE CWA WILL SHIFT
WESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
SHIFT INTO NORTH GEORGIA TODAY AND TONIGHT DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WET DAY FOR PARTS OF THE CWA
TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...BUT THE RISK OF RAIN WILL
DECREASE SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLOWLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

17

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL KEEP AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS OR HIGHER THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWEST RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REPRIEVE IS SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INFLUENCES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LONG TERM
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS
EACH AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

MODELED INSTABILITIES STILL LOOK TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
BRIEF SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT ON THE WHOLE STILL EXPECT
THE MAJORITY TO BE SUB-SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS WHERE STORMS
HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT...OR WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION.

IN GENERAL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LONGWAVE TROUGH.

31


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL GA TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE BEST CHANCES BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO
NEAR CALM THROUGH THE FORECAST. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER
09Z TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND PRECIP TIMING
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  71  91  71 /  60  50  30  30
ATLANTA         84  72  88  72 /  50  40  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     81  67  84  66 /  60  50  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    84  69  88  70 /  60  50  40  40
COLUMBUS        85  72  92  73 /  50  40  30  20
GAINESVILLE     83  71  86  71 /  60  50  40  30
MACON           85  70  91  72 /  50  40  30  20
ROME            85  70  89  71 /  60  50  40  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  70  89  70 /  50  40  30  20
VIDALIA         90  73  94  74 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...17








000
FXUS62 KCAE 221054
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
654 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS VERY MOIST. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS ABOVE 2 INCHES...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AGAIN TODAY AS TEMPERATURES
RISE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY MOST LOCATIONS. SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS EAST MIDLANDS AND NUMEROUS OTHER SURFACE BOUNDARIES
WILL PROVIDE CONVERGENCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
LATER TODAY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY LIFT NORTH INTO
EASTERN GEORGIA/WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA ENHANCING LIFT BUT
OVERALL...LIFT APPEARS WEAKER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING AGAIN DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOW
MOVING STORMS. PREFER HIGHER THAN MOS CONSENSUS POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND
GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE
DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER WITH LESS CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW/WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WARMER THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK...A LITTLE STRONGER TO THE EAST...AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. CHANCE POPS WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MED RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO PERSIST WITH A CLOSED
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
TROUGHING CONTINUING IN BETWEEN...MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SERIES OF S/W TO RE-DEVELOP/DEEPEN
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT NEAR THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN STALLING NEAR THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO CROSS THE TAF SITES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS
BLANKETING THE REGION WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING PREDOMINATELY LIFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING...HOWEVER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES. HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAINS LOW AND WILL ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS
TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 221054
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
654 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS VERY MOIST. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS ABOVE 2 INCHES...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AGAIN TODAY AS TEMPERATURES
RISE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY MOST LOCATIONS. SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS EAST MIDLANDS AND NUMEROUS OTHER SURFACE BOUNDARIES
WILL PROVIDE CONVERGENCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
LATER TODAY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY LIFT NORTH INTO
EASTERN GEORGIA/WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA ENHANCING LIFT BUT
OVERALL...LIFT APPEARS WEAKER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING AGAIN DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOW
MOVING STORMS. PREFER HIGHER THAN MOS CONSENSUS POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND
GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE
DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER WITH LESS CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW/WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WARMER THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK...A LITTLE STRONGER TO THE EAST...AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. CHANCE POPS WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MED RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO PERSIST WITH A CLOSED
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
TROUGHING CONTINUING IN BETWEEN...MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SERIES OF S/W TO RE-DEVELOP/DEEPEN
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT NEAR THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN STALLING NEAR THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO CROSS THE TAF SITES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS
BLANKETING THE REGION WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING PREDOMINATELY LIFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING...HOWEVER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES. HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAINS LOW AND WILL ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS
TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 220852
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER LOW
THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE CWA WILL SHIFT
WESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
SHIFT INTO NORTH GEORGIA TODAY AND TONIGHT DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WET DAY FOR PARTS OF THE CWA
TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...BUT THE RISK OF RAIN WILL
DECREASE SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLOWLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

17

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL KEEP AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS OR HIGHER THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWEST RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REPRIEVE IS SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INFLUENCES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LONG TERM
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS
EACH AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

MODELED INSTABILITIES STILL LOOK TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
BRIEF SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT ON THE WHOLE STILL EXPECT
THE MAJORITY TO BE SUB-SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS WHERE STORMS
HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT...OR WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION.

IN GENERAL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LONGWAVE TROUGH.

31


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS TO COVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN LIFT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL GA TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCES BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO NEAR
CALM THROUGH THE FORECAST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND PRECIP TIMING
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  71  91  71 /  60  50  30  30
ATLANTA         84  72  88  72 /  50  40  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     81  67  84  66 /  60  50  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    84  69  88  70 /  60  50  40  40
COLUMBUS        85  72  92  73 /  50  40  30  20
GAINESVILLE     83  71  86  71 /  60  50  40  30
MACON           85  70  91  72 /  50  40  30  20
ROME            85  70  89  71 /  60  50  40  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  70  89  70 /  50  40  30  20
VIDALIA         90  73  94  74 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...17






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