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000
FXUS62 KCAE 030635
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
235 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER FLORIDA WILL SHIFT
WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE UPPER TROUGH SETS UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST. UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER E NC...ALONG WITH
REMANTS OF FORMER TS ERIKA OFFSHORE SE GA...WILL BOTH SHIFT SE
OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER ENERGY TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST INTO OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. UPPER ENERGY
AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...GENERALLY FAVORING THE S AND E FA WHERE A LITTLE
BETTER MOISTURE EXISTS. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO OUR
WEST EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR REGION. THIS COULD KEEP MAX
TEMPS BELOW THE WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST NE TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. UPPER TROUGH ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO GENERALLY REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PROVIDE MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY APPEARING TO FAVOR THE
EAST AND SOUTH AGAIN. UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO
OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO A TREND TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION...WITH APPEARANCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO
RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX
TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK. CONFIDENCE LOW ON SPECIFICS LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS UPPER LOW MAY REMAIN CUT OFF OR GRADUALLY
OPEN...WITH SURFACE FEATURES POSSIBLY BECOMING LESS DISTINCT.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE
CAROLINAS. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY
PROVIDE A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB DURING THE 09Z-12Z TIME
FRAME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 13Z AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A PREVAILING WESTERLY DIRECTION...AND BROKEN CLOUD COVER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 030635
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
235 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER FLORIDA WILL SHIFT
WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE UPPER TROUGH SETS UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST. UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER E NC...ALONG WITH
REMANTS OF FORMER TS ERIKA OFFSHORE SE GA...WILL BOTH SHIFT SE
OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER ENERGY TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST INTO OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. UPPER ENERGY
AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...GENERALLY FAVORING THE S AND E FA WHERE A LITTLE
BETTER MOISTURE EXISTS. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO OUR
WEST EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR REGION. THIS COULD KEEP MAX
TEMPS BELOW THE WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST NE TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. UPPER TROUGH ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO GENERALLY REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PROVIDE MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY APPEARING TO FAVOR THE
EAST AND SOUTH AGAIN. UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO
OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO A TREND TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION...WITH APPEARANCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO
RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX
TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK. CONFIDENCE LOW ON SPECIFICS LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS UPPER LOW MAY REMAIN CUT OFF OR GRADUALLY
OPEN...WITH SURFACE FEATURES POSSIBLY BECOMING LESS DISTINCT.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE
CAROLINAS. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY
PROVIDE A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB DURING THE 09Z-12Z TIME
FRAME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 13Z AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A PREVAILING WESTERLY DIRECTION...AND BROKEN CLOUD COVER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 030635
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
235 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER FLORIDA WILL SHIFT
WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE UPPER TROUGH SETS UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST. UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER E NC...ALONG WITH
REMANTS OF FORMER TS ERIKA OFFSHORE SE GA...WILL BOTH SHIFT SE
OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER ENERGY TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST INTO OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. UPPER ENERGY
AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...GENERALLY FAVORING THE S AND E FA WHERE A LITTLE
BETTER MOISTURE EXISTS. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO OUR
WEST EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR REGION. THIS COULD KEEP MAX
TEMPS BELOW THE WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST NE TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. UPPER TROUGH ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO GENERALLY REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PROVIDE MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY APPEARING TO FAVOR THE
EAST AND SOUTH AGAIN. UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO
OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO A TREND TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION...WITH APPEARANCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO
RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX
TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK. CONFIDENCE LOW ON SPECIFICS LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS UPPER LOW MAY REMAIN CUT OFF OR GRADUALLY
OPEN...WITH SURFACE FEATURES POSSIBLY BECOMING LESS DISTINCT.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE
CAROLINAS. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY
PROVIDE A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB DURING THE 09Z-12Z TIME
FRAME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 13Z AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A PREVAILING WESTERLY DIRECTION...AND BROKEN CLOUD COVER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 030635
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
235 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER
TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER FLORIDA WILL SHIFT
WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE UPPER TROUGH SETS UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST. UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER E NC...ALONG WITH
REMANTS OF FORMER TS ERIKA OFFSHORE SE GA...WILL BOTH SHIFT SE
OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER ENERGY TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST INTO OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. UPPER ENERGY
AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...GENERALLY FAVORING THE S AND E FA WHERE A LITTLE
BETTER MOISTURE EXISTS. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO OUR
WEST EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR REGION. THIS COULD KEEP MAX
TEMPS BELOW THE WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST NE TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. UPPER TROUGH ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO GENERALLY REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PROVIDE MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY APPEARING TO FAVOR THE
EAST AND SOUTH AGAIN. UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT SW TOWARDS OUR REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BACK DOOR BOUNDARY SW INTO
OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO A TREND TOWARDS INCREASING POPS AND LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF OVER OUR REGION...WITH APPEARANCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO
RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE POPS...ALONG WITH BELOW CLIMO MAX
TEMPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK. CONFIDENCE LOW ON SPECIFICS LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS UPPER LOW MAY REMAIN CUT OFF OR GRADUALLY
OPEN...WITH SURFACE FEATURES POSSIBLY BECOMING LESS DISTINCT.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND...TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY BY MID WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE
CAROLINAS. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY
PROVIDE A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB DURING THE 09Z-12Z TIME
FRAME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 13Z AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A PREVAILING WESTERLY DIRECTION...AND BROKEN CLOUD COVER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



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000
FXUS62 KCHS 030537
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
137 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL THEN STEER
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT MOST PRECIP
TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST WHERE DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. FURTHER NORTH...THE
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CIRCULATION
PUSHING OFFSHORE...LIKELY RESULTING IN A MUCH DRYER SCENARIO
OVERNIGHT NIGHT. THE FOCUS OF MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE IN THE MID 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH WILL ALIGN ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ERIKA. MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION BEING
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AREN/T VERY
NOTEWORTHY WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. SO THE
THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE...WITH A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THANKS
TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE OVERNIGHT
WILL LARGELY BE DRY FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH VALUES REACHING THE 91-93 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE CAUGHT WITHIN A WEST/EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY WILL STILL SEE THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH LINGER ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THEN
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
SURPRISINGLY WELL DEFINED INLAND WEDGE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AS A COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM WILL HELP
TO DRIVE IMPROVING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S...THEN SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A  CHANCE OF MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AT THE KSAV TERMINAL. THERE
COULD BE A FEW AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING TSTMS NOT TOO FAR WEST
OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW AT
THIS POINT FOR ANY VCTS/CB MENTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS AT
OR BELOW 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LESS THAN 10-15 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT. THEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL. THIS SETUP
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4
FT BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 030537
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
137 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL THEN STEER
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT MOST PRECIP
TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST WHERE DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. FURTHER NORTH...THE
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CIRCULATION
PUSHING OFFSHORE...LIKELY RESULTING IN A MUCH DRYER SCENARIO
OVERNIGHT NIGHT. THE FOCUS OF MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE IN THE MID 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH WILL ALIGN ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ERIKA. MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION BEING
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AREN/T VERY
NOTEWORTHY WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. SO THE
THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE...WITH A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THANKS
TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE OVERNIGHT
WILL LARGELY BE DRY FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH VALUES REACHING THE 91-93 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE CAUGHT WITHIN A WEST/EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY WILL STILL SEE THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH LINGER ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THEN
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
SURPRISINGLY WELL DEFINED INLAND WEDGE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AS A COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM WILL HELP
TO DRIVE IMPROVING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S...THEN SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A  CHANCE OF MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AT THE KSAV TERMINAL. THERE
COULD BE A FEW AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING TSTMS NOT TOO FAR WEST
OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW AT
THIS POINT FOR ANY VCTS/CB MENTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS AT
OR BELOW 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LESS THAN 10-15 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT. THEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL. THIS SETUP
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4
FT BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 030537
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
137 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL THEN STEER
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT MOST PRECIP
TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST WHERE DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. FURTHER NORTH...THE
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CIRCULATION
PUSHING OFFSHORE...LIKELY RESULTING IN A MUCH DRYER SCENARIO
OVERNIGHT NIGHT. THE FOCUS OF MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE IN THE MID 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH WILL ALIGN ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ERIKA. MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION BEING
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AREN/T VERY
NOTEWORTHY WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. SO THE
THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE...WITH A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THANKS
TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE OVERNIGHT
WILL LARGELY BE DRY FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH VALUES REACHING THE 91-93 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE CAUGHT WITHIN A WEST/EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY WILL STILL SEE THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH LINGER ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THEN
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
SURPRISINGLY WELL DEFINED INLAND WEDGE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AS A COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM WILL HELP
TO DRIVE IMPROVING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S...THEN SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A  CHANCE OF MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AT THE KSAV TERMINAL. THERE
COULD BE A FEW AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING TSTMS NOT TOO FAR WEST
OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW AT
THIS POINT FOR ANY VCTS/CB MENTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS AT
OR BELOW 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LESS THAN 10-15 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT. THEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL. THIS SETUP
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4
FT BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 030537
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
137 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL THEN STEER
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT MOST PRECIP
TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST WHERE DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. FURTHER NORTH...THE
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CIRCULATION
PUSHING OFFSHORE...LIKELY RESULTING IN A MUCH DRYER SCENARIO
OVERNIGHT NIGHT. THE FOCUS OF MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE IN THE MID 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH WILL ALIGN ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ERIKA. MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION BEING
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AREN/T VERY
NOTEWORTHY WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. SO THE
THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE...WITH A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THANKS
TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE OVERNIGHT
WILL LARGELY BE DRY FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH VALUES REACHING THE 91-93 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE CAUGHT WITHIN A WEST/EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY WILL STILL SEE THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH LINGER ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THEN
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
SURPRISINGLY WELL DEFINED INLAND WEDGE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AS A COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM WILL HELP
TO DRIVE IMPROVING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S...THEN SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A  CHANCE OF MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AT THE KSAV TERMINAL. THERE
COULD BE A FEW AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING TSTMS NOT TOO FAR WEST
OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW AT
THIS POINT FOR ANY VCTS/CB MENTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS AT
OR BELOW 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LESS THAN 10-15 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT. THEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL. THIS SETUP
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4
FT BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCAE 030536
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
136 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST
TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST...THROUGH FRIDAY. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER ENERGY EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A
TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE. UPPER ENERGY AND REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF FORMER TS ERIKA...AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH STILL APPEARS WILL BE SHUNTED TO
THE EAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS MIDWEST UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LIFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING...APPEARS TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON SPECIFICS AND
TIMING...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO OR THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC LEADING TO INCREASING
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND POPS...AND TREND TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS.
WILL MAINTAIN BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE
CAROLINAS. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY
PROVIDE A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB DURING THE 09Z-12Z TIME
FRAME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 13Z AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A PREVAILING WESTERLY DIRECTION...AND BROKEN CLOUD COVER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 030536
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
136 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST
TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST...THROUGH FRIDAY. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER ENERGY EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A
TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE. UPPER ENERGY AND REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF FORMER TS ERIKA...AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH STILL APPEARS WILL BE SHUNTED TO
THE EAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS MIDWEST UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LIFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING...APPEARS TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON SPECIFICS AND
TIMING...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO OR THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC LEADING TO INCREASING
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND POPS...AND TREND TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS.
WILL MAINTAIN BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE
CAROLINAS. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY
PROVIDE A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB DURING THE 09Z-12Z TIME
FRAME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 13Z AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A PREVAILING WESTERLY DIRECTION...AND BROKEN CLOUD COVER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KFFC 030514 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
114 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...
DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS WANED AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
CIRRUS. HAVE ADJUSTED A BIT HIGHER POPS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH GA
TOMORROW BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATING A WEAK DISTURBANCE
FROM THE NW INFLUENCING THE AREA AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. SOME
HI-RES SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOW BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THAN
RECENT DAYS. OTHERWISE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TRENDS TONIGHT
AND INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FOG MENTION PRIOR TO SUNRISE GIVEN
PROGGED DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND CALM WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER
SOUTHEAST GA. WE CURRENTLY HAVE JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING CLOSE TO THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE LACKING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADILY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FL BUT
IT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES
ITS PLACE BY FRI MORNING. ALL IN ALL HAVE INCREASED POPS THU ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND THE RIDGE WEAKENING. HIGH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THU
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

01

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/
THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU PERIOD. PATCHY MVFR FOG 08-12Z.
VARYING HIGH CLOUDS WITH 4500-10000 SCT CLOUDS AND SOME
5000-7000 BKN CEILINGS DURING THE DAY. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE
AFTER 18Z SO CONTINUING WITH PROB30 FOR -SHRA FOR NOW. CALM WINDS
BECOMING WNW LESS THAN 10 KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ANY LOWER CEILINGS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR ANY IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS OR STORMS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VSBYS AND WINDS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  71  90  70 /  20  20  30  20
ATLANTA         90  73  90  71 /  30  20  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     85  64  85  65 /  40  20  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    90  68  91  69 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        91  73  91  73 /  30  20  30  20
GAINESVILLE     89  71  88  70 /  30  20  40  20
MACON           90  72  92  71 /  30  20  30  20
ROME            91  69  91  69 /  30  20  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  90  70  90  69 /  30  20  30  20
VIDALIA         91  73  93  72 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BDL



000
FXUS62 KFFC 030514 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
114 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...
DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS WANED AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
CIRRUS. HAVE ADJUSTED A BIT HIGHER POPS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH GA
TOMORROW BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATING A WEAK DISTURBANCE
FROM THE NW INFLUENCING THE AREA AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. SOME
HI-RES SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOW BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THAN
RECENT DAYS. OTHERWISE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TRENDS TONIGHT
AND INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FOG MENTION PRIOR TO SUNRISE GIVEN
PROGGED DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND CALM WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER
SOUTHEAST GA. WE CURRENTLY HAVE JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING CLOSE TO THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE LACKING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADILY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FL BUT
IT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES
ITS PLACE BY FRI MORNING. ALL IN ALL HAVE INCREASED POPS THU ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND THE RIDGE WEAKENING. HIGH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THU
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

01

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/
THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU PERIOD. PATCHY MVFR FOG 08-12Z.
VARYING HIGH CLOUDS WITH 4500-10000 SCT CLOUDS AND SOME
5000-7000 BKN CEILINGS DURING THE DAY. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE
AFTER 18Z SO CONTINUING WITH PROB30 FOR -SHRA FOR NOW. CALM WINDS
BECOMING WNW LESS THAN 10 KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ANY LOWER CEILINGS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR ANY IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS OR STORMS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VSBYS AND WINDS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  71  90  70 /  20  20  30  20
ATLANTA         90  73  90  71 /  30  20  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     85  64  85  65 /  40  20  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    90  68  91  69 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        91  73  91  73 /  30  20  30  20
GAINESVILLE     89  71  88  70 /  30  20  40  20
MACON           90  72  92  71 /  30  20  30  20
ROME            91  69  91  69 /  30  20  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  90  70  90  69 /  30  20  30  20
VIDALIA         91  73  93  72 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BDL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 030514 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
114 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...
DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS WANED AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
CIRRUS. HAVE ADJUSTED A BIT HIGHER POPS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH GA
TOMORROW BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATING A WEAK DISTURBANCE
FROM THE NW INFLUENCING THE AREA AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. SOME
HI-RES SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOW BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THAN
RECENT DAYS. OTHERWISE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TRENDS TONIGHT
AND INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FOG MENTION PRIOR TO SUNRISE GIVEN
PROGGED DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND CALM WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER
SOUTHEAST GA. WE CURRENTLY HAVE JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING CLOSE TO THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE LACKING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADILY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FL BUT
IT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES
ITS PLACE BY FRI MORNING. ALL IN ALL HAVE INCREASED POPS THU ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND THE RIDGE WEAKENING. HIGH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THU
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

01

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/
THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU PERIOD. PATCHY MVFR FOG 08-12Z.
VARYING HIGH CLOUDS WITH 4500-10000 SCT CLOUDS AND SOME
5000-7000 BKN CEILINGS DURING THE DAY. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE
AFTER 18Z SO CONTINUING WITH PROB30 FOR -SHRA FOR NOW. CALM WINDS
BECOMING WNW LESS THAN 10 KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ANY LOWER CEILINGS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR ANY IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS OR STORMS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VSBYS AND WINDS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  71  90  70 /  20  20  30  20
ATLANTA         90  73  90  71 /  30  20  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     85  64  85  65 /  40  20  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    90  68  91  69 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        91  73  91  73 /  30  20  30  20
GAINESVILLE     89  71  88  70 /  30  20  40  20
MACON           90  72  92  71 /  30  20  30  20
ROME            91  69  91  69 /  30  20  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  90  70  90  69 /  30  20  30  20
VIDALIA         91  73  93  72 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BDL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 030514 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
114 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...
DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS WANED AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
CIRRUS. HAVE ADJUSTED A BIT HIGHER POPS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH GA
TOMORROW BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATING A WEAK DISTURBANCE
FROM THE NW INFLUENCING THE AREA AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. SOME
HI-RES SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOW BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THAN
RECENT DAYS. OTHERWISE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TRENDS TONIGHT
AND INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FOG MENTION PRIOR TO SUNRISE GIVEN
PROGGED DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND CALM WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER
SOUTHEAST GA. WE CURRENTLY HAVE JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING CLOSE TO THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE LACKING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADILY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FL BUT
IT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES
ITS PLACE BY FRI MORNING. ALL IN ALL HAVE INCREASED POPS THU ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND THE RIDGE WEAKENING. HIGH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THU
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

01

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/
THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU PERIOD. PATCHY MVFR FOG 08-12Z.
VARYING HIGH CLOUDS WITH 4500-10000 SCT CLOUDS AND SOME
5000-7000 BKN CEILINGS DURING THE DAY. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE
AFTER 18Z SO CONTINUING WITH PROB30 FOR -SHRA FOR NOW. CALM WINDS
BECOMING WNW LESS THAN 10 KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ANY LOWER CEILINGS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR ANY IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS OR STORMS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VSBYS AND WINDS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  71  90  70 /  20  20  30  20
ATLANTA         90  73  90  71 /  30  20  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     85  64  85  65 /  40  20  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    90  68  91  69 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        91  73  91  73 /  30  20  30  20
GAINESVILLE     89  71  88  70 /  30  20  40  20
MACON           90  72  92  71 /  30  20  30  20
ROME            91  69  91  69 /  30  20  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  90  70  90  69 /  30  20  30  20
VIDALIA         91  73  93  72 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BDL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 030222
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1022 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL THEN STEER
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT MOST PRECIP
TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST WHERE DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. FURTHER NORTH...THE
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CIRCULATION
PUSHING OFFSHORE...LIKELY RESULTING IN A MUCH DRYER SCENARIO
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE FOCUS OF MOST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH WILL ALIGN ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ERIKA. MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION BEING
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AREN/T VERY
NOTEWORTHY WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. SO THE
THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE...WITH A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THANKS
TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE OVERNIGHT
WILL LARGELY BE DRY FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH VALUES REACHING THE 91-93 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE CAUGHT WITHIN A WEST/EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY WILL STILL SEE THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH LINGER ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THEN
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
SURPRISINGLY WELL DEFINED INLAND WEDGE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AS A COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM WILL HELP
TO DRIVE IMPROVING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S...THEN SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AT THE SAV TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10
KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LESS THAN 10-15 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT. THEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL. THIS SETUP
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4
FT BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 030222
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1022 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL THEN STEER
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT MOST PRECIP
TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST WHERE DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. FURTHER NORTH...THE
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CIRCULATION
PUSHING OFFSHORE...LIKELY RESULTING IN A MUCH DRYER SCENARIO
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE FOCUS OF MOST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH WILL ALIGN ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ERIKA. MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION BEING
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AREN/T VERY
NOTEWORTHY WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. SO THE
THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE...WITH A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THANKS
TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE OVERNIGHT
WILL LARGELY BE DRY FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH VALUES REACHING THE 91-93 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE CAUGHT WITHIN A WEST/EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY WILL STILL SEE THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH LINGER ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THEN
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
SURPRISINGLY WELL DEFINED INLAND WEDGE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AS A COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM WILL HELP
TO DRIVE IMPROVING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S...THEN SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AT THE SAV TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10
KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LESS THAN 10-15 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT. THEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL. THIS SETUP
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4
FT BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 030222
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1022 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL THEN STEER
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT MOST PRECIP
TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST WHERE DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. FURTHER NORTH...THE
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CIRCULATION
PUSHING OFFSHORE...LIKELY RESULTING IN A MUCH DRYER SCENARIO
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE FOCUS OF MOST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH WILL ALIGN ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ERIKA. MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION BEING
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AREN/T VERY
NOTEWORTHY WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. SO THE
THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE...WITH A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THANKS
TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE OVERNIGHT
WILL LARGELY BE DRY FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH VALUES REACHING THE 91-93 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE CAUGHT WITHIN A WEST/EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY WILL STILL SEE THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH LINGER ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THEN
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
SURPRISINGLY WELL DEFINED INLAND WEDGE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AS A COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM WILL HELP
TO DRIVE IMPROVING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S...THEN SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AT THE SAV TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10
KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LESS THAN 10-15 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT. THEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL. THIS SETUP
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4
FT BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 030222
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1022 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL THEN STEER
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT MOST PRECIP
TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST WHERE DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. FURTHER NORTH...THE
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CIRCULATION
PUSHING OFFSHORE...LIKELY RESULTING IN A MUCH DRYER SCENARIO
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE FOCUS OF MOST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH WILL ALIGN ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ERIKA. MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION BEING
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AREN/T VERY
NOTEWORTHY WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. SO THE
THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE...WITH A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THANKS
TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE OVERNIGHT
WILL LARGELY BE DRY FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH VALUES REACHING THE 91-93 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE CAUGHT WITHIN A WEST/EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY WILL STILL SEE THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH LINGER ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THEN
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
SURPRISINGLY WELL DEFINED INLAND WEDGE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AS A COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM WILL HELP
TO DRIVE IMPROVING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S...THEN SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AT THE SAV TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10
KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LESS THAN 10-15 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT. THEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL. THIS SETUP
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4
FT BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 030222
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1022 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL THEN STEER
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT MOST PRECIP
TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST WHERE DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. FURTHER NORTH...THE
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CIRCULATION
PUSHING OFFSHORE...LIKELY RESULTING IN A MUCH DRYER SCENARIO
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE FOCUS OF MOST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH WILL ALIGN ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ERIKA. MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION BEING
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AREN/T VERY
NOTEWORTHY WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. SO THE
THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE...WITH A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THANKS
TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE OVERNIGHT
WILL LARGELY BE DRY FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH VALUES REACHING THE 91-93 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE CAUGHT WITHIN A WEST/EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY WILL STILL SEE THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH LINGER ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THEN
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
SURPRISINGLY WELL DEFINED INLAND WEDGE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AS A COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM WILL HELP
TO DRIVE IMPROVING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S...THEN SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AT THE SAV TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10
KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LESS THAN 10-15 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT. THEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL. THIS SETUP
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4
FT BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB



000
FXUS62 KCAE 030220
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1020 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST
TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST...THROUGH FRIDAY. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER ENERGY EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A
TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE. UPPER ENERGY AND REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF FORMER TS ERIKA...AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH STILL APPEARS WILL BE SHUNTED TO
THE EAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS MIDWEST UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LIFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING...APPEARS TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON SPECIFICS AND
TIMING...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO OR THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC LEADING TO INCREASING
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND POPS...AND TREND TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS.
WILL MAINTAIN BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGE ALOFT...ALONG WITH A
GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE TAF PERIOD. NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD HELP PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
MVFR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY AT THE RIVER VALLEY
TERMINALS OF AGS AND OGB. BY 14Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
ALL SITES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND BKN/OVC HIGH CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 030220
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1020 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST
TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST...THROUGH FRIDAY. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER ENERGY EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A
TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE. UPPER ENERGY AND REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF FORMER TS ERIKA...AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH STILL APPEARS WILL BE SHUNTED TO
THE EAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS MIDWEST UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LIFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING...APPEARS TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON SPECIFICS AND
TIMING...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO OR THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC LEADING TO INCREASING
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND POPS...AND TREND TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS.
WILL MAINTAIN BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGE ALOFT...ALONG WITH A
GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE TAF PERIOD. NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD HELP PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
MVFR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY AT THE RIVER VALLEY
TERMINALS OF AGS AND OGB. BY 14Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
ALL SITES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND BKN/OVC HIGH CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KFFC 030137
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
937 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS WANED AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
CIRRUS. HAVE ADJUSTED A BIT HIGHER POPS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH GA
TOMORROW BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATING A WEAK DISTURBANCE
FROM THE NW INFLUENCING THE AREA AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. SOME
HI-RES SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOW BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THAN
RECENT DAYS. OTHERWISE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TRENDS TONIGHT
AND INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FOG MENTION PRIOR TO SUNRISE GIVEN
PROGGED DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND CALM WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER
SOUTHEAST GA. WE CURRENTLY HAVE JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING CLOSE TO THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE LACKING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADILY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FL BUT
IT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES
ITS PLACE BY FRI MORNING. ALL IN ALL HAVE INCREASED POPS THU ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND THE RIDGE WEAKENING. HIGH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THU
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/
THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU PERIOD. SOME LINGERING SCT CLOUDS IN 5-7 KFT
RANGE OVERNIGHT AND SOME CIRRUS...OTHERWISE CU TO STRATOCU AGAIN
FOR THURSDAY NEAR 5 KFT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z SO
INCLUDED PROB30 FOR -SHRA. WINDS LIGHT NW TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND
STAYING UNDER 7 KTS THURSDAY OUT OF NW. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR
VSBYS NEAR SUNRISE...THOUGH MCN MIGHT HAVE BEST CHANCE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  91  71  90 /   5  20  20  30
ATLANTA         72  90  73  90 /   5  30  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  64  85 /  10  40  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    69  90  68  91 /   5  30  20  30
COLUMBUS        73  91  73  91 /  10  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     71  89  71  88 /   5  30  20  40
MACON           71  90  72  92 /  10  30  20  30
ROME            69  91  69  91 /   5  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  70  90  70  90 /   5  30  20  30
VIDALIA         73  91  73  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01/BAKER
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS62 KFFC 030137
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
937 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS WANED AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
CIRRUS. HAVE ADJUSTED A BIT HIGHER POPS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH GA
TOMORROW BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATING A WEAK DISTURBANCE
FROM THE NW INFLUENCING THE AREA AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. SOME
HI-RES SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOW BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THAN
RECENT DAYS. OTHERWISE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TRENDS TONIGHT
AND INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FOG MENTION PRIOR TO SUNRISE GIVEN
PROGGED DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND CALM WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER
SOUTHEAST GA. WE CURRENTLY HAVE JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING CLOSE TO THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE LACKING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADILY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FL BUT
IT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES
ITS PLACE BY FRI MORNING. ALL IN ALL HAVE INCREASED POPS THU ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND THE RIDGE WEAKENING. HIGH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THU
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/
THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU PERIOD. SOME LINGERING SCT CLOUDS IN 5-7 KFT
RANGE OVERNIGHT AND SOME CIRRUS...OTHERWISE CU TO STRATOCU AGAIN
FOR THURSDAY NEAR 5 KFT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z SO
INCLUDED PROB30 FOR -SHRA. WINDS LIGHT NW TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND
STAYING UNDER 7 KTS THURSDAY OUT OF NW. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR
VSBYS NEAR SUNRISE...THOUGH MCN MIGHT HAVE BEST CHANCE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  91  71  90 /   5  20  20  30
ATLANTA         72  90  73  90 /   5  30  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  64  85 /  10  40  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    69  90  68  91 /   5  30  20  30
COLUMBUS        73  91  73  91 /  10  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     71  89  71  88 /   5  30  20  40
MACON           71  90  72  92 /  10  30  20  30
ROME            69  91  69  91 /   5  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  70  90  70  90 /   5  30  20  30
VIDALIA         73  91  73  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01/BAKER
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS62 KFFC 030137
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
937 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS WANED AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
CIRRUS. HAVE ADJUSTED A BIT HIGHER POPS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH GA
TOMORROW BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATING A WEAK DISTURBANCE
FROM THE NW INFLUENCING THE AREA AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. SOME
HI-RES SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOW BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THAN
RECENT DAYS. OTHERWISE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TRENDS TONIGHT
AND INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FOG MENTION PRIOR TO SUNRISE GIVEN
PROGGED DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND CALM WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER
SOUTHEAST GA. WE CURRENTLY HAVE JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING CLOSE TO THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE LACKING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADILY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FL BUT
IT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES
ITS PLACE BY FRI MORNING. ALL IN ALL HAVE INCREASED POPS THU ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND THE RIDGE WEAKENING. HIGH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THU
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/
THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU PERIOD. SOME LINGERING SCT CLOUDS IN 5-7 KFT
RANGE OVERNIGHT AND SOME CIRRUS...OTHERWISE CU TO STRATOCU AGAIN
FOR THURSDAY NEAR 5 KFT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z SO
INCLUDED PROB30 FOR -SHRA. WINDS LIGHT NW TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND
STAYING UNDER 7 KTS THURSDAY OUT OF NW. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR
VSBYS NEAR SUNRISE...THOUGH MCN MIGHT HAVE BEST CHANCE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  91  71  90 /   5  20  20  30
ATLANTA         72  90  73  90 /   5  30  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  64  85 /  10  40  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    69  90  68  91 /   5  30  20  30
COLUMBUS        73  91  73  91 /  10  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     71  89  71  88 /   5  30  20  40
MACON           71  90  72  92 /  10  30  20  30
ROME            69  91  69  91 /   5  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  70  90  70  90 /   5  30  20  30
VIDALIA         73  91  73  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01/BAKER
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS62 KFFC 030137
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
937 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS WANED AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
CIRRUS. HAVE ADJUSTED A BIT HIGHER POPS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH GA
TOMORROW BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATING A WEAK DISTURBANCE
FROM THE NW INFLUENCING THE AREA AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. SOME
HI-RES SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOW BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THAN
RECENT DAYS. OTHERWISE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TRENDS TONIGHT
AND INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FOG MENTION PRIOR TO SUNRISE GIVEN
PROGGED DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND CALM WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER
SOUTHEAST GA. WE CURRENTLY HAVE JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING CLOSE TO THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE LACKING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADILY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FL BUT
IT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES
ITS PLACE BY FRI MORNING. ALL IN ALL HAVE INCREASED POPS THU ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND THE RIDGE WEAKENING. HIGH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THU
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/
THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU PERIOD. SOME LINGERING SCT CLOUDS IN 5-7 KFT
RANGE OVERNIGHT AND SOME CIRRUS...OTHERWISE CU TO STRATOCU AGAIN
FOR THURSDAY NEAR 5 KFT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z SO
INCLUDED PROB30 FOR -SHRA. WINDS LIGHT NW TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND
STAYING UNDER 7 KTS THURSDAY OUT OF NW. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR
VSBYS NEAR SUNRISE...THOUGH MCN MIGHT HAVE BEST CHANCE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  91  71  90 /   5  20  20  30
ATLANTA         72  90  73  90 /   5  30  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  64  85 /  10  40  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    69  90  68  91 /   5  30  20  30
COLUMBUS        73  91  73  91 /  10  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     71  89  71  88 /   5  30  20  40
MACON           71  90  72  92 /  10  30  20  30
ROME            69  91  69  91 /   5  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  70  90  70  90 /   5  30  20  30
VIDALIA         73  91  73  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01/BAKER
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS62 KFFC 030137
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
937 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS WANED AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
CIRRUS. HAVE ADJUSTED A BIT HIGHER POPS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH GA
TOMORROW BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATING A WEAK DISTURBANCE
FROM THE NW INFLUENCING THE AREA AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. SOME
HI-RES SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOW BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THAN
RECENT DAYS. OTHERWISE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TRENDS TONIGHT
AND INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FOG MENTION PRIOR TO SUNRISE GIVEN
PROGGED DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND CALM WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER
SOUTHEAST GA. WE CURRENTLY HAVE JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING CLOSE TO THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE LACKING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADILY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FL BUT
IT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES
ITS PLACE BY FRI MORNING. ALL IN ALL HAVE INCREASED POPS THU ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND THE RIDGE WEAKENING. HIGH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THU
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/
THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU PERIOD. SOME LINGERING SCT CLOUDS IN 5-7 KFT
RANGE OVERNIGHT AND SOME CIRRUS...OTHERWISE CU TO STRATOCU AGAIN
FOR THURSDAY NEAR 5 KFT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z SO
INCLUDED PROB30 FOR -SHRA. WINDS LIGHT NW TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND
STAYING UNDER 7 KTS THURSDAY OUT OF NW. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR
VSBYS NEAR SUNRISE...THOUGH MCN MIGHT HAVE BEST CHANCE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  91  71  90 /   5  20  20  30
ATLANTA         72  90  73  90 /   5  30  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  64  85 /  10  40  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    69  90  68  91 /   5  30  20  30
COLUMBUS        73  91  73  91 /  10  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     71  89  71  88 /   5  30  20  40
MACON           71  90  72  92 /  10  30  20  30
ROME            69  91  69  91 /   5  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  70  90  70  90 /   5  30  20  30
VIDALIA         73  91  73  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01/BAKER
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS62 KFFC 030137
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
937 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS WANED AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
CIRRUS. HAVE ADJUSTED A BIT HIGHER POPS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH GA
TOMORROW BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATING A WEAK DISTURBANCE
FROM THE NW INFLUENCING THE AREA AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. SOME
HI-RES SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOW BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THAN
RECENT DAYS. OTHERWISE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TRENDS TONIGHT
AND INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FOG MENTION PRIOR TO SUNRISE GIVEN
PROGGED DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND CALM WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER
SOUTHEAST GA. WE CURRENTLY HAVE JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING CLOSE TO THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE LACKING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADILY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FL BUT
IT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES
ITS PLACE BY FRI MORNING. ALL IN ALL HAVE INCREASED POPS THU ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND THE RIDGE WEAKENING. HIGH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THU
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/
THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU PERIOD. SOME LINGERING SCT CLOUDS IN 5-7 KFT
RANGE OVERNIGHT AND SOME CIRRUS...OTHERWISE CU TO STRATOCU AGAIN
FOR THURSDAY NEAR 5 KFT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z SO
INCLUDED PROB30 FOR -SHRA. WINDS LIGHT NW TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND
STAYING UNDER 7 KTS THURSDAY OUT OF NW. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR
VSBYS NEAR SUNRISE...THOUGH MCN MIGHT HAVE BEST CHANCE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  91  71  90 /   5  20  20  30
ATLANTA         72  90  73  90 /   5  30  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  64  85 /  10  40  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    69  90  68  91 /   5  30  20  30
COLUMBUS        73  91  73  91 /  10  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     71  89  71  88 /   5  30  20  40
MACON           71  90  72  92 /  10  30  20  30
ROME            69  91  69  91 /   5  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  70  90  70  90 /   5  30  20  30
VIDALIA         73  91  73  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01/BAKER
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS62 KFFC 030016
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
816 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER
SOUTHEAST GA. WE CURRENTLY HAVE JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING CLOSE TO THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE LACKING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADILY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FL BUT
IT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES
ITS PLACE BY FRI MORNING. ALL IN ALL HAVE INCREASED POPS THU ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND THE RIDGE WEAKENING. HIGH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THU
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/
THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU PERIOD. SOME LINGERING SCT CLOUDS IN 5-7 KFT
RANGE OVERNIGHT AND SOME CIRRUS...OTHERWISE CU TO STRATOCU AGAIN
FOR THURSDAY NEAR 5 KFT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z SO
INCLUDED PROB30 FOR -SHRA. WINDS LIGHT NW TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND
STAYING UNDER 7 KTS THURSDAY OUT OF NW. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR
VSBYS NEAR SUNRISE...THOUGH MCN MIGHT HAVE BEST CHANCE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  91  71  90 /   5  20  20  30
ATLANTA         72  90  73  90 /   5  30  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  64  85 /  10  40  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    69  90  68  91 /   5  30  20  30
COLUMBUS        73  91  73  91 /  10  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     71  89  71  88 /   5  30  20  40
MACON           71  90  72  92 /  10  30  20  30
ROME            69  91  69  91 /   5  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  70  90  70  90 /   5  30  20  30
VIDALIA         73  91  73  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS62 KFFC 030016
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
816 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER
SOUTHEAST GA. WE CURRENTLY HAVE JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING CLOSE TO THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE LACKING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADILY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FL BUT
IT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES
ITS PLACE BY FRI MORNING. ALL IN ALL HAVE INCREASED POPS THU ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND THE RIDGE WEAKENING. HIGH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THU
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/
THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU PERIOD. SOME LINGERING SCT CLOUDS IN 5-7 KFT
RANGE OVERNIGHT AND SOME CIRRUS...OTHERWISE CU TO STRATOCU AGAIN
FOR THURSDAY NEAR 5 KFT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z SO
INCLUDED PROB30 FOR -SHRA. WINDS LIGHT NW TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND
STAYING UNDER 7 KTS THURSDAY OUT OF NW. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR
VSBYS NEAR SUNRISE...THOUGH MCN MIGHT HAVE BEST CHANCE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  91  71  90 /   5  20  20  30
ATLANTA         72  90  73  90 /   5  30  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  64  85 /  10  40  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    69  90  68  91 /   5  30  20  30
COLUMBUS        73  91  73  91 /  10  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     71  89  71  88 /   5  30  20  40
MACON           71  90  72  92 /  10  30  20  30
ROME            69  91  69  91 /   5  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  70  90  70  90 /   5  30  20  30
VIDALIA         73  91  73  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS62 KFFC 030016
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
816 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER
SOUTHEAST GA. WE CURRENTLY HAVE JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING CLOSE TO THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE LACKING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADILY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FL BUT
IT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES
ITS PLACE BY FRI MORNING. ALL IN ALL HAVE INCREASED POPS THU ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND THE RIDGE WEAKENING. HIGH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THU
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/
THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU PERIOD. SOME LINGERING SCT CLOUDS IN 5-7 KFT
RANGE OVERNIGHT AND SOME CIRRUS...OTHERWISE CU TO STRATOCU AGAIN
FOR THURSDAY NEAR 5 KFT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z SO
INCLUDED PROB30 FOR -SHRA. WINDS LIGHT NW TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND
STAYING UNDER 7 KTS THURSDAY OUT OF NW. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR
VSBYS NEAR SUNRISE...THOUGH MCN MIGHT HAVE BEST CHANCE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  91  71  90 /   5  20  20  30
ATLANTA         72  90  73  90 /   5  30  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  64  85 /  10  40  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    69  90  68  91 /   5  30  20  30
COLUMBUS        73  91  73  91 /  10  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     71  89  71  88 /   5  30  20  40
MACON           71  90  72  92 /  10  30  20  30
ROME            69  91  69  91 /   5  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  70  90  70  90 /   5  30  20  30
VIDALIA         73  91  73  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS62 KFFC 030016
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
816 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER
SOUTHEAST GA. WE CURRENTLY HAVE JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING CLOSE TO THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE LACKING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADILY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FL BUT
IT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES
ITS PLACE BY FRI MORNING. ALL IN ALL HAVE INCREASED POPS THU ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND THE RIDGE WEAKENING. HIGH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THU
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/
THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU PERIOD. SOME LINGERING SCT CLOUDS IN 5-7 KFT
RANGE OVERNIGHT AND SOME CIRRUS...OTHERWISE CU TO STRATOCU AGAIN
FOR THURSDAY NEAR 5 KFT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z SO
INCLUDED PROB30 FOR -SHRA. WINDS LIGHT NW TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND
STAYING UNDER 7 KTS THURSDAY OUT OF NW. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR
VSBYS NEAR SUNRISE...THOUGH MCN MIGHT HAVE BEST CHANCE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  91  71  90 /   5  20  20  30
ATLANTA         72  90  73  90 /   5  30  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  64  85 /  10  40  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    69  90  68  91 /   5  30  20  30
COLUMBUS        73  91  73  91 /  10  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     71  89  71  88 /   5  30  20  40
MACON           71  90  72  92 /  10  30  20  30
ROME            69  91  69  91 /   5  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  70  90  70  90 /   5  30  20  30
VIDALIA         73  91  73  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS62 KCHS 022350
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
750 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT EAST-
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A H5 SHORTWAVE WILL
THEN SHIFT OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...STEERING THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COAST WHERE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED. FURTHER NORTH...THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE CIRCULATION PUSHING OFFSHORE...LIKELY RESULTING IN
A MUCH DRYER SCENARIO THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE
FOCUS OF MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. IN GENERAL..OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH WILL ALIGN ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ERIKA. MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION BEING
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AREN/T VERY
NOTEWORTHY WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. SO THE
THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE...WITH A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THANKS
TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE OVERNIGHT
WILL LARGELY BE DRY FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH VALUES REACHING THE 91-93 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE CAUGHT WITHIN A WEST/EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY WILL STILL SEE THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH LINGER ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THEN
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
SURPRISINGLY WELL DEFINED INLAND WEDGE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AS A COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM WILL HELP
TO DRIVE IMPROVING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S...THEN SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KSAV...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY
PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT THE TERMINAL EARLY TONIGHT. ACTIVITY
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINAL EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10
KTS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LESS THAN 10-15 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT. THEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL. THIS SETUP
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4
FT BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 022350
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
750 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT EAST-
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A H5 SHORTWAVE WILL
THEN SHIFT OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...STEERING THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COAST WHERE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED. FURTHER NORTH...THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE CIRCULATION PUSHING OFFSHORE...LIKELY RESULTING IN
A MUCH DRYER SCENARIO THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE
FOCUS OF MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. IN GENERAL..OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH WILL ALIGN ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ERIKA. MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION BEING
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AREN/T VERY
NOTEWORTHY WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. SO THE
THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE...WITH A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THANKS
TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE OVERNIGHT
WILL LARGELY BE DRY FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH VALUES REACHING THE 91-93 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE CAUGHT WITHIN A WEST/EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY WILL STILL SEE THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH LINGER ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THEN
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
SURPRISINGLY WELL DEFINED INLAND WEDGE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AS A COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM WILL HELP
TO DRIVE IMPROVING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S...THEN SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KSAV...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY
PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT THE TERMINAL EARLY TONIGHT. ACTIVITY
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINAL EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10
KTS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LESS THAN 10-15 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT. THEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL. THIS SETUP
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4
FT BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 022350
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
750 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT EAST-
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A H5 SHORTWAVE WILL
THEN SHIFT OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...STEERING THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COAST WHERE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED. FURTHER NORTH...THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE CIRCULATION PUSHING OFFSHORE...LIKELY RESULTING IN
A MUCH DRYER SCENARIO THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE
FOCUS OF MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. IN GENERAL..OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH WILL ALIGN ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ERIKA. MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION BEING
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AREN/T VERY
NOTEWORTHY WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. SO THE
THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE...WITH A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THANKS
TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE OVERNIGHT
WILL LARGELY BE DRY FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH VALUES REACHING THE 91-93 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE CAUGHT WITHIN A WEST/EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY WILL STILL SEE THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH LINGER ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THEN
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
SURPRISINGLY WELL DEFINED INLAND WEDGE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AS A COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM WILL HELP
TO DRIVE IMPROVING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S...THEN SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KSAV...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY
PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT THE TERMINAL EARLY TONIGHT. ACTIVITY
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINAL EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10
KTS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LESS THAN 10-15 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT. THEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL. THIS SETUP
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4
FT BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 022350
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
750 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT EAST-
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A H5 SHORTWAVE WILL
THEN SHIFT OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...STEERING THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COAST WHERE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED. FURTHER NORTH...THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE CIRCULATION PUSHING OFFSHORE...LIKELY RESULTING IN
A MUCH DRYER SCENARIO THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE
FOCUS OF MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. IN GENERAL..OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH WILL ALIGN ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ERIKA. MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION BEING
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AREN/T VERY
NOTEWORTHY WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. SO THE
THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE...WITH A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THANKS
TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE OVERNIGHT
WILL LARGELY BE DRY FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH VALUES REACHING THE 91-93 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE CAUGHT WITHIN A WEST/EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY WILL STILL SEE THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH LINGER ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THEN
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
SURPRISINGLY WELL DEFINED INLAND WEDGE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AS A COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM WILL HELP
TO DRIVE IMPROVING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S...THEN SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KSAV...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY
PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT THE TERMINAL EARLY TONIGHT. ACTIVITY
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINAL EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10
KTS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LESS THAN 10-15 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT. THEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL. THIS SETUP
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4
FT BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 022350
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
750 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT EAST-
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A H5 SHORTWAVE WILL
THEN SHIFT OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...STEERING THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COAST WHERE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED. FURTHER NORTH...THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE CIRCULATION PUSHING OFFSHORE...LIKELY RESULTING IN
A MUCH DRYER SCENARIO THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE
FOCUS OF MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. IN GENERAL..OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH WILL ALIGN ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ERIKA. MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION BEING
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AREN/T VERY
NOTEWORTHY WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. SO THE
THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE...WITH A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THANKS
TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE OVERNIGHT
WILL LARGELY BE DRY FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH VALUES REACHING THE 91-93 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE CAUGHT WITHIN A WEST/EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY WILL STILL SEE THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH LINGER ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THEN
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
SURPRISINGLY WELL DEFINED INLAND WEDGE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AS A COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM WILL HELP
TO DRIVE IMPROVING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S...THEN SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KSAV...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY
PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT THE TERMINAL EARLY TONIGHT. ACTIVITY
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINAL EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10
KTS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LESS THAN 10-15 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT. THEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL. THIS SETUP
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4
FT BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 022350
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
750 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT EAST-
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A H5 SHORTWAVE WILL
THEN SHIFT OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...STEERING THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COAST WHERE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED. FURTHER NORTH...THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE CIRCULATION PUSHING OFFSHORE...LIKELY RESULTING IN
A MUCH DRYER SCENARIO THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE
FOCUS OF MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. IN GENERAL..OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH WILL ALIGN ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ERIKA. MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION BEING
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AREN/T VERY
NOTEWORTHY WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. SO THE
THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE...WITH A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THANKS
TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE OVERNIGHT
WILL LARGELY BE DRY FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH VALUES REACHING THE 91-93 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE CAUGHT WITHIN A WEST/EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY WILL STILL SEE THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH LINGER ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THEN
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
SURPRISINGLY WELL DEFINED INLAND WEDGE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AS A COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM WILL HELP
TO DRIVE IMPROVING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S...THEN SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KSAV...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY
PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT THE TERMINAL EARLY TONIGHT. ACTIVITY
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINAL EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHIFT OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10
KTS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LESS THAN 10-15 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT. THEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL. THIS SETUP
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4
FT BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB



000
FXUS62 KCAE 022341
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
741 PM EDT WED SEP  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST
TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST...THROUGH FRIDAY. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER ENERGY EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A
TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE. UPPER ENERGY AND REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF FORMER TS ERIKA...AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH STILL APPEARS WILL BE SHUNTED TO
THE EAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS MIDWEST UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LIFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING...APPEARS TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON SPECIFICS AND
TIMING...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO OR THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC LEADING TO INCREASING
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND POPS...AND TREND TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS.
WILL MAINTAIN BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGE ALOFT...ALONG WITH A
GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE TAF PERIOD. NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD HELP PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
MVFR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY AT THE RIVER VALLEY
TERMINALS OF AGS AND OGB. BY 14Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
ALL SITES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND BKN/OVC HIGH CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 022341
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
741 PM EDT WED SEP  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST
TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST...THROUGH FRIDAY. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER ENERGY EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A
TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE. UPPER ENERGY AND REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF FORMER TS ERIKA...AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH STILL APPEARS WILL BE SHUNTED TO
THE EAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS MIDWEST UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LIFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING...APPEARS TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON SPECIFICS AND
TIMING...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO OR THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC LEADING TO INCREASING
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND POPS...AND TREND TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS.
WILL MAINTAIN BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGE ALOFT...ALONG WITH A
GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE TAF PERIOD. NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD HELP PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
MVFR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY AT THE RIVER VALLEY
TERMINALS OF AGS AND OGB. BY 14Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
ALL SITES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND BKN/OVC HIGH CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 022341
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
741 PM EDT WED SEP  2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST
TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST...THROUGH FRIDAY. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER ENERGY EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A
TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE. UPPER ENERGY AND REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF FORMER TS ERIKA...AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH STILL APPEARS WILL BE SHUNTED TO
THE EAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS MIDWEST UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LIFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING...APPEARS TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON SPECIFICS AND
TIMING...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO OR THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC LEADING TO INCREASING
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND POPS...AND TREND TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS.
WILL MAINTAIN BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGE ALOFT...ALONG WITH A
GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE TAF PERIOD. NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD HELP PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
MVFR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY AT THE RIVER VALLEY
TERMINALS OF AGS AND OGB. BY 14Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
ALL SITES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND BKN/OVC HIGH CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 022214
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
614 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST
TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST...THROUGH FRIDAY. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER ENERGY EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A
TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE. UPPER ENERGY AND REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF FORMER TS ERIKA...AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH STILL APPEARS WILL BE SHUNTED TO
THE EAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS MIDWEST UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LIFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING...APPEARS TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON SPECIFICS AND
TIMING...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO OR THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC LEADING TO INCREASING
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND POPS...AND TREND TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS.
WILL MAINTAIN BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGE ALOFT...ALONG WITH A
GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE TAF PERIOD. NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD HELP CAUSE FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY AT THE RIVER VALLEY TERMINALS OF AGS
AND OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 022214
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
614 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST
TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST...THROUGH FRIDAY. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER ENERGY EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A
TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE. UPPER ENERGY AND REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF FORMER TS ERIKA...AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH STILL APPEARS WILL BE SHUNTED TO
THE EAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS MIDWEST UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LIFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING...APPEARS TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON SPECIFICS AND
TIMING...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO OR THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC LEADING TO INCREASING
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND POPS...AND TREND TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS.
WILL MAINTAIN BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGE ALOFT...ALONG WITH A
GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE TAF PERIOD. NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD HELP CAUSE FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY AT THE RIVER VALLEY TERMINALS OF AGS
AND OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 022214
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
614 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST
TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST...THROUGH FRIDAY. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER ENERGY EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A
TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE. UPPER ENERGY AND REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF FORMER TS ERIKA...AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH STILL APPEARS WILL BE SHUNTED TO
THE EAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS MIDWEST UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LIFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING...APPEARS TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON SPECIFICS AND
TIMING...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO OR THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC LEADING TO INCREASING
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND POPS...AND TREND TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS.
WILL MAINTAIN BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGE ALOFT...ALONG WITH A
GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE TAF PERIOD. NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD HELP CAUSE FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY AT THE RIVER VALLEY TERMINALS OF AGS
AND OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 022214
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
614 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST
TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST...THROUGH FRIDAY. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER ENERGY EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR
FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A
TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE. UPPER ENERGY AND REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF FORMER TS ERIKA...AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH STILL APPEARS WILL BE SHUNTED TO
THE EAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS MIDWEST UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LIFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING...APPEARS TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON SPECIFICS AND
TIMING...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO OR THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC LEADING TO INCREASING
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND POPS...AND TREND TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS.
WILL MAINTAIN BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGE ALOFT...ALONG WITH A
GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE TAF PERIOD. NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD HELP CAUSE FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY AT THE RIVER VALLEY TERMINALS OF AGS
AND OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 022010
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
410 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA. A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL HELP STEER THE
ERIKA REMNANTS MORE EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GEORGIA COAST BY
LATE TONIGHT...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA ALONG ITS NORTHERN
PERIPHERY.

DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL RESULT IN THE GREATEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
COVERAGE DIMINISHING FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE
ONGOING CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN ALONG
VARIOUS BOUNDARIES. THEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT OUT OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS...BUT SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS AS WELL. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA...BENEATH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH WILL ALIGN ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ERIKA. MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION BEING
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AREN/T VERY
NOTEWORTHY WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. SO THE
THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE...WITH A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THANKS
TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE OVERNIGHT
WILL LARGELY BE DRY FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH VALUES REACHING THE 91-93 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE CAUGHT WITHIN A WEST/EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY WILL STILL SEE THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH LINGER ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THEN
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
SURPRISINGLY WELL DEFINED INLAND WEDGE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AS A COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM WILL HELP
TO DRIVE IMPROVING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S...THEN SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KSAV...SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. AS A RESULT
HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH 00Z
WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH 22Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
18Z WEDNESDAY.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE
WATERS...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE
1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS ALL WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LESS THAN 10-15 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT. THEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL. THIS SETUP
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4
FT BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...JAQ/BSH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 022010
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
410 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA. A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL HELP STEER THE
ERIKA REMNANTS MORE EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GEORGIA COAST BY
LATE TONIGHT...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA ALONG ITS NORTHERN
PERIPHERY.

DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL RESULT IN THE GREATEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
COVERAGE DIMINISHING FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE
ONGOING CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN ALONG
VARIOUS BOUNDARIES. THEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT OUT OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS...BUT SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS AS WELL. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA...BENEATH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH WILL ALIGN ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ERIKA. MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION BEING
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AREN/T VERY
NOTEWORTHY WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. SO THE
THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE...WITH A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS THANKS
TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE OVERNIGHT
WILL LARGELY BE DRY FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH VALUES REACHING THE 91-93 DEGREE RANGE AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE CAUGHT WITHIN A WEST/EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY WILL STILL SEE THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH LINGER ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THEN
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
SURPRISINGLY WELL DEFINED INLAND WEDGE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE AS A COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM WILL HELP
TO DRIVE IMPROVING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S...THEN SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KSAV...SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. AS A RESULT
HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH 00Z
WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH 22Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
18Z WEDNESDAY.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH BE DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE
WATERS...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE
1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS ALL WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LESS THAN 10-15 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT. THEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL. THIS SETUP
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4
FT BEYOND 20 NM. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR NEEDING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...JAQ/BSH



000
FXUS62 KFFC 021926
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
326 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER
SOUTHEAST GA. WE CURRENTLY HAVE JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING CLOSE TO THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE LACKING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADILY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FL BUT
IT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES
ITS PLACE BY FRI MORNING. ALL IN ALL HAVE INCREASED POPS THU ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND THE RIDGE WEAKENING. HIGH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THU
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

01


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

17
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/
THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT THEY SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES. WINDS SHOULD STAY W TO NW THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10KT OR
LESS. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  71  91  71 /  10   5  20  20
ATLANTA         89  72  90  73 /  10   5  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     85  64  85  64 /  20   5  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    89  69  90  68 /  10   5  20  20
COLUMBUS        90  73  91  73 /  20  10  30  20
GAINESVILLE     88  71  89  71 /  10   5  20  20
MACON           89  71  90  72 /  20  10  30  20
ROME            89  69  91  69 /  10   5  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  89  70  90  70 /  10   5  20  20
VIDALIA         89  73  91  73 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 021926
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
326 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER
SOUTHEAST GA. WE CURRENTLY HAVE JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING CLOSE TO THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE LACKING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADILY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FL BUT
IT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES
ITS PLACE BY FRI MORNING. ALL IN ALL HAVE INCREASED POPS THU ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND THE RIDGE WEAKENING. HIGH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THU
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

01


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

17
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/
THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT THEY SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES. WINDS SHOULD STAY W TO NW THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10KT OR
LESS. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  71  91  71 /  10   5  20  20
ATLANTA         89  72  90  73 /  10   5  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     85  64  85  64 /  20   5  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    89  69  90  68 /  10   5  20  20
COLUMBUS        90  73  91  73 /  20  10  30  20
GAINESVILLE     88  71  89  71 /  10   5  20  20
MACON           89  71  90  72 /  20  10  30  20
ROME            89  69  91  69 /  10   5  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  89  70  90  70 /  10   5  20  20
VIDALIA         89  73  91  73 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 021926
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
326 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER
SOUTHEAST GA. WE CURRENTLY HAVE JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING CLOSE TO THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE LACKING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADILY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FL BUT
IT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES
ITS PLACE BY FRI MORNING. ALL IN ALL HAVE INCREASED POPS THU ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND THE RIDGE WEAKENING. HIGH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THU
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

01


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

17
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/
THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT THEY SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES. WINDS SHOULD STAY W TO NW THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10KT OR
LESS. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  71  91  71 /  10   5  20  20
ATLANTA         89  72  90  73 /  10   5  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     85  64  85  64 /  20   5  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    89  69  90  68 /  10   5  20  20
COLUMBUS        90  73  91  73 /  20  10  30  20
GAINESVILLE     88  71  89  71 /  10   5  20  20
MACON           89  71  90  72 /  20  10  30  20
ROME            89  69  91  69 /  10   5  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  89  70  90  70 /  10   5  20  20
VIDALIA         89  73  91  73 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 021926
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
326 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER
SOUTHEAST GA. WE CURRENTLY HAVE JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING CLOSE TO THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE LACKING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADILY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FL BUT
IT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES
ITS PLACE BY FRI MORNING. ALL IN ALL HAVE INCREASED POPS THU ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND THE RIDGE WEAKENING. HIGH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THU
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

01


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

17
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/
THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT THEY SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES. WINDS SHOULD STAY W TO NW THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10KT OR
LESS. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  71  91  71 /  10   5  20  20
ATLANTA         89  72  90  73 /  10   5  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     85  64  85  64 /  20   5  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    89  69  90  68 /  10   5  20  20
COLUMBUS        90  73  91  73 /  20  10  30  20
GAINESVILLE     88  71  89  71 /  10   5  20  20
MACON           89  71  90  72 /  20  10  30  20
ROME            89  69  91  69 /  10   5  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  89  70  90  70 /  10   5  20  20
VIDALIA         89  73  91  73 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 021926
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
326 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OVER
SOUTHEAST GA. WE CURRENTLY HAVE JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STAYING CLOSE TO THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE LACKING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STEADILY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FL BUT
IT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES
ITS PLACE BY FRI MORNING. ALL IN ALL HAVE INCREASED POPS THU ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND THE RIDGE WEAKENING. HIGH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THU
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

01


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

17
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/
THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT THEY SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES. WINDS SHOULD STAY W TO NW THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10KT OR
LESS. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  71  91  71 /  10   5  20  20
ATLANTA         89  72  90  73 /  10   5  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     85  64  85  64 /  20   5  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    89  69  90  68 /  10   5  20  20
COLUMBUS        90  73  91  73 /  20  10  30  20
GAINESVILLE     88  71  89  71 /  10   5  20  20
MACON           89  71  90  72 /  20  10  30  20
ROME            89  69  91  69 /  10   5  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  89  70  90  70 /  10   5  20  20
VIDALIA         89  73  91  73 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 021830
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
230 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE MOVING
OVER SE GA TODAY BRINGING A SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS
WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF CENTRAL GA...S OF CSG AND MCN. SOME ENHANCED INSTABILITY
OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS COULD LEAD TO A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THERE
THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS WELL. S OF THE NE MOUNTAINS
AND N OF CENTRAL GA...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE JUST TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SOME INCREASED
MOISTURE MOVE TO THE AREA...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SOME
FOR N GA. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK SO POP CHANCES ARE
RUNNING 20-40 PERCENT...HIGHEST OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND THURSDAY. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

BDL

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT THEY SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES. WINDS SHOULD STAY W TO NW THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10KT OR
LESS. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  71  91  71 /  10   5  20  20
ATLANTA         89  72  90  73 /  10   5  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     85  64  85  64 /  20   5  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    89  69  90  68 /  10   5  20  20
COLUMBUS        90  73  91  73 /  20  10  30  20
GAINESVILLE     88  71  89  71 /  10   5  20  20
MACON           89  71  90  72 /  20  10  30  20
ROME            89  69  91  69 /  10   5  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  89  70  90  70 /  10   5  20  20
VIDALIA         89  73  91  73 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 021830
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
230 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE MOVING
OVER SE GA TODAY BRINGING A SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS
WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF CENTRAL GA...S OF CSG AND MCN. SOME ENHANCED INSTABILITY
OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS COULD LEAD TO A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THERE
THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS WELL. S OF THE NE MOUNTAINS
AND N OF CENTRAL GA...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE JUST TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SOME INCREASED
MOISTURE MOVE TO THE AREA...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SOME
FOR N GA. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK SO POP CHANCES ARE
RUNNING 20-40 PERCENT...HIGHEST OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND THURSDAY. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

BDL

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT THEY SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES. WINDS SHOULD STAY W TO NW THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10KT OR
LESS. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  71  91  71 /  10   5  20  20
ATLANTA         89  72  90  73 /  10   5  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     85  64  85  64 /  20   5  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    89  69  90  68 /  10   5  20  20
COLUMBUS        90  73  91  73 /  20  10  30  20
GAINESVILLE     88  71  89  71 /  10   5  20  20
MACON           89  71  90  72 /  20  10  30  20
ROME            89  69  91  69 /  10   5  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  89  70  90  70 /  10   5  20  20
VIDALIA         89  73  91  73 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 021830
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
230 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE MOVING
OVER SE GA TODAY BRINGING A SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS
WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF CENTRAL GA...S OF CSG AND MCN. SOME ENHANCED INSTABILITY
OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS COULD LEAD TO A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THERE
THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS WELL. S OF THE NE MOUNTAINS
AND N OF CENTRAL GA...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE JUST TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SOME INCREASED
MOISTURE MOVE TO THE AREA...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SOME
FOR N GA. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK SO POP CHANCES ARE
RUNNING 20-40 PERCENT...HIGHEST OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND THURSDAY. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

BDL

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT THEY SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES. WINDS SHOULD STAY W TO NW THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10KT OR
LESS. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  71  91  71 /  10   5  20  20
ATLANTA         89  72  90  73 /  10   5  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     85  64  85  64 /  20   5  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    89  69  90  68 /  10   5  20  20
COLUMBUS        90  73  91  73 /  20  10  30  20
GAINESVILLE     88  71  89  71 /  10   5  20  20
MACON           89  71  90  72 /  20  10  30  20
ROME            89  69  91  69 /  10   5  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  89  70  90  70 /  10   5  20  20
VIDALIA         89  73  91  73 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 021830
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
230 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE MOVING
OVER SE GA TODAY BRINGING A SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS
WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF CENTRAL GA...S OF CSG AND MCN. SOME ENHANCED INSTABILITY
OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS COULD LEAD TO A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THERE
THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS WELL. S OF THE NE MOUNTAINS
AND N OF CENTRAL GA...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE JUST TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SOME INCREASED
MOISTURE MOVE TO THE AREA...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SOME
FOR N GA. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK SO POP CHANCES ARE
RUNNING 20-40 PERCENT...HIGHEST OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND THURSDAY. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

BDL

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT THEY SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES. WINDS SHOULD STAY W TO NW THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10KT OR
LESS. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  71  91  71 /  10   5  20  20
ATLANTA         89  72  90  73 /  10   5  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     85  64  85  64 /  20   5  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    89  69  90  68 /  10   5  20  20
COLUMBUS        90  73  91  73 /  20  10  30  20
GAINESVILLE     88  71  89  71 /  10   5  20  20
MACON           89  71  90  72 /  20  10  30  20
ROME            89  69  91  69 /  10   5  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  89  70  90  70 /  10   5  20  20
VIDALIA         89  73  91  73 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 021830
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
230 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE MOVING
OVER SE GA TODAY BRINGING A SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS
WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF CENTRAL GA...S OF CSG AND MCN. SOME ENHANCED INSTABILITY
OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS COULD LEAD TO A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THERE
THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS WELL. S OF THE NE MOUNTAINS
AND N OF CENTRAL GA...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE JUST TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SOME INCREASED
MOISTURE MOVE TO THE AREA...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SOME
FOR N GA. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK SO POP CHANCES ARE
RUNNING 20-40 PERCENT...HIGHEST OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND THURSDAY. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

BDL

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT THEY SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES. WINDS SHOULD STAY W TO NW THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10KT OR
LESS. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  71  91  71 /  10   5  20  20
ATLANTA         89  72  90  73 /  10   5  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     85  64  85  64 /  20   5  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    89  69  90  68 /  10   5  20  20
COLUMBUS        90  73  91  73 /  20  10  30  20
GAINESVILLE     88  71  89  71 /  10   5  20  20
MACON           89  71  90  72 /  20  10  30  20
ROME            89  69  91  69 /  10   5  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  89  70  90  70 /  10   5  20  20
VIDALIA         89  73  91  73 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 021830
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
230 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE MOVING
OVER SE GA TODAY BRINGING A SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS
WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF CENTRAL GA...S OF CSG AND MCN. SOME ENHANCED INSTABILITY
OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS COULD LEAD TO A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THERE
THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS WELL. S OF THE NE MOUNTAINS
AND N OF CENTRAL GA...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE JUST TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SOME INCREASED
MOISTURE MOVE TO THE AREA...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SOME
FOR N GA. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK SO POP CHANCES ARE
RUNNING 20-40 PERCENT...HIGHEST OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND THURSDAY. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

BDL

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT THEY SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES. WINDS SHOULD STAY W TO NW THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10KT OR
LESS. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  71  91  71 /  10   5  20  20
ATLANTA         89  72  90  73 /  10   5  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     85  64  85  64 /  20   5  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    89  69  90  68 /  10   5  20  20
COLUMBUS        90  73  91  73 /  20  10  30  20
GAINESVILLE     88  71  89  71 /  10   5  20  20
MACON           89  71  90  72 /  20  10  30  20
ROME            89  69  91  69 /  10   5  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  89  70  90  70 /  10   5  20  20
VIDALIA         89  73  91  73 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KCHS 021741
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
141 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...BUT ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESS WILL BE LIMITED BY A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE...EXPECT
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE MORE OF A GRADUAL EASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE
GEORGIA COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY...KEEPING MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY.

THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...WHERE THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST. THE
FORECAST WILL THEREFORE INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
IN SOME AREAS SOUTH OF I-16...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE BEAUFORT AREA...WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UP INTO THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MOST EXTENSIVE SOUTH OF I-16 WHERE SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FARTHER NORTH.
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WHERE CLOUDS ARE MOST PREVALENT...WITH THE FORECAST NOW
SHOWING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES
AND AREAS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 AS
THE POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THERE
IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR UPPER DIFLUENCE TO HANG OUR
HATS ON THUS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE POP SCHEME. IT CERTAINLY COULD
BE WET AROUND THE DARIEN AREA BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ACROSS MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION. BENEATH THIS FEATURE...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE
WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 02/00Z NAM/EURO DEPICTION OF INSTABILITY
DEPICTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. ALSO...WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED. ALSO OF
NOTE...HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F COULD BECOME COMMON OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AT MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS/WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS REGIME SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS LESS THAN EXPECTED QPF DUE IN PART TO DRIER AIR WEDGING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THUS...CAPPED MAXIMUM/AFTERNOON POPS
AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT. MEANWHILE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND A CATEGORY
LOWER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KSAV...SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. AS A RESULT
HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH 00Z
WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH 22Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
18Z WEDNESDAY.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT THE WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH WINDS
MAINLY SW TO S LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS INCREASE AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY
THE PM SEA BREEZE AND AM LAND BREEZE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTH. THUS...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE HOLDS WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE CAPPED AT 15
TO 20 KT/3 TO 4 FT. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. WILL ADJUST FORECASTS
AS NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 021741
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
141 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...BUT ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESS WILL BE LIMITED BY A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE...EXPECT
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE MORE OF A GRADUAL EASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE
GEORGIA COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY...KEEPING MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY.

THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...WHERE THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST. THE
FORECAST WILL THEREFORE INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
IN SOME AREAS SOUTH OF I-16...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE BEAUFORT AREA...WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UP INTO THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MOST EXTENSIVE SOUTH OF I-16 WHERE SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FARTHER NORTH.
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WHERE CLOUDS ARE MOST PREVALENT...WITH THE FORECAST NOW
SHOWING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES
AND AREAS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 AS
THE POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THERE
IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR UPPER DIFLUENCE TO HANG OUR
HATS ON THUS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE POP SCHEME. IT CERTAINLY COULD
BE WET AROUND THE DARIEN AREA BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ACROSS MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION. BENEATH THIS FEATURE...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE
WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 02/00Z NAM/EURO DEPICTION OF INSTABILITY
DEPICTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. ALSO...WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED. ALSO OF
NOTE...HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F COULD BECOME COMMON OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AT MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS/WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS REGIME SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS LESS THAN EXPECTED QPF DUE IN PART TO DRIER AIR WEDGING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THUS...CAPPED MAXIMUM/AFTERNOON POPS
AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT. MEANWHILE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND A CATEGORY
LOWER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KSAV...SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. AS A RESULT
HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH 00Z
WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH 22Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
18Z WEDNESDAY.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT THE WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH WINDS
MAINLY SW TO S LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS INCREASE AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY
THE PM SEA BREEZE AND AM LAND BREEZE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTH. THUS...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE HOLDS WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE CAPPED AT 15
TO 20 KT/3 TO 4 FT. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. WILL ADJUST FORECASTS
AS NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 021741
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
141 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...BUT ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESS WILL BE LIMITED BY A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE...EXPECT
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE MORE OF A GRADUAL EASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE
GEORGIA COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY...KEEPING MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY.

THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...WHERE THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST. THE
FORECAST WILL THEREFORE INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
IN SOME AREAS SOUTH OF I-16...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE BEAUFORT AREA...WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UP INTO THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MOST EXTENSIVE SOUTH OF I-16 WHERE SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FARTHER NORTH.
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WHERE CLOUDS ARE MOST PREVALENT...WITH THE FORECAST NOW
SHOWING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES
AND AREAS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 AS
THE POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THERE
IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR UPPER DIFLUENCE TO HANG OUR
HATS ON THUS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE POP SCHEME. IT CERTAINLY COULD
BE WET AROUND THE DARIEN AREA BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ACROSS MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION. BENEATH THIS FEATURE...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE
WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 02/00Z NAM/EURO DEPICTION OF INSTABILITY
DEPICTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. ALSO...WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED. ALSO OF
NOTE...HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F COULD BECOME COMMON OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AT MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS/WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS REGIME SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS LESS THAN EXPECTED QPF DUE IN PART TO DRIER AIR WEDGING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THUS...CAPPED MAXIMUM/AFTERNOON POPS
AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT. MEANWHILE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND A CATEGORY
LOWER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KSAV...SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. AS A RESULT
HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH 00Z
WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH 22Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
18Z WEDNESDAY.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT THE WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH WINDS
MAINLY SW TO S LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS INCREASE AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY
THE PM SEA BREEZE AND AM LAND BREEZE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTH. THUS...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE HOLDS WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE CAPPED AT 15
TO 20 KT/3 TO 4 FT. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. WILL ADJUST FORECASTS
AS NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 021503
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1103 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA TODAY...BUT ITS NORTHWARD
PROGRESS WILL BE LIMITED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO TAKE MORE OF A
GRADUAL EASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE GEORGIA COAST BY LATE IN THE
DAY...KEEPING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG ITS NORTHERN
PERIPHERY.

THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...WHERE THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST. THE
FORECAST WILL THEREFORE INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
IN SOME AREAS SOUTH OF I-16...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE BEAUFORT AREA...WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UP INTO THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MOST EXTENSIVE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
WHERE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FARTHER NORTH. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ALREADY TAKE THIS CLOUD
COVER INTO ACCOUNT AND DON/T SEE ANY REASON FOR CHANGES AT THIS
POINT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES
AND AREAS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 AS
THE POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THERE
IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR UPPER DIFLUENCE TO HANG OUR
HATS ON THUS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE POP SCHEME. IT CERTAINLY COULD
BE WET AROUND THE DARIEN AREA BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ACROSS MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION. BENEATH THIS FEATURE...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE
WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 02/00Z NAM/EURO DEPICTION OF INSTABILITY
DEPICTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. ALSO...WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED. ALSO OF
NOTE...HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F COULD BECOME COMMON OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AT MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS/WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS REGIME SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS LESS THAN EXPECTED QPF DUE IN PART TO DRIER AIR WEDGING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THUS...CAPPED MAXIMUM/AFTERNOON POPS
AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT. MEANWHILE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND A CATEGORY
LOWER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY. RAINS WILL NOT BE TOO
FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TONIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT MORE
LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS BUT TOO EARLY FOR ANY INTRODUCTIONS ON THE
12Z CYCLE.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT THE WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH WINDS
MAINLY SW TO S LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS INCREASE AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY
THE PM SEA BREEZE AND AM LAND BREEZE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTH. THUS...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE HOLDS WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE CAPPED AT 15
TO 20 KT/3 TO 4 FT. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. WILL ADJUST FORECASTS
AS NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE.../SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 021503
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1103 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA TODAY...BUT ITS NORTHWARD
PROGRESS WILL BE LIMITED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO TAKE MORE OF A
GRADUAL EASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE GEORGIA COAST BY LATE IN THE
DAY...KEEPING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG ITS NORTHERN
PERIPHERY.

THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...WHERE THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST. THE
FORECAST WILL THEREFORE INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
IN SOME AREAS SOUTH OF I-16...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE BEAUFORT AREA...WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UP INTO THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MOST EXTENSIVE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
WHERE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FARTHER NORTH. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ALREADY TAKE THIS CLOUD
COVER INTO ACCOUNT AND DON/T SEE ANY REASON FOR CHANGES AT THIS
POINT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES
AND AREAS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 AS
THE POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THERE
IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR UPPER DIFLUENCE TO HANG OUR
HATS ON THUS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE POP SCHEME. IT CERTAINLY COULD
BE WET AROUND THE DARIEN AREA BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ACROSS MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION. BENEATH THIS FEATURE...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE
WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 02/00Z NAM/EURO DEPICTION OF INSTABILITY
DEPICTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. ALSO...WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED. ALSO OF
NOTE...HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F COULD BECOME COMMON OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AT MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS/WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS REGIME SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS LESS THAN EXPECTED QPF DUE IN PART TO DRIER AIR WEDGING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THUS...CAPPED MAXIMUM/AFTERNOON POPS
AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT. MEANWHILE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND A CATEGORY
LOWER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY. RAINS WILL NOT BE TOO
FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TONIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT MORE
LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS BUT TOO EARLY FOR ANY INTRODUCTIONS ON THE
12Z CYCLE.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT THE WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH WINDS
MAINLY SW TO S LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS INCREASE AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY
THE PM SEA BREEZE AND AM LAND BREEZE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTH. THUS...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE HOLDS WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE CAPPED AT 15
TO 20 KT/3 TO 4 FT. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. WILL ADJUST FORECASTS
AS NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE.../SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 021503
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1103 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA TODAY...BUT ITS NORTHWARD
PROGRESS WILL BE LIMITED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO TAKE MORE OF A
GRADUAL EASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE GEORGIA COAST BY LATE IN THE
DAY...KEEPING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG ITS NORTHERN
PERIPHERY.

THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...WHERE THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST. THE
FORECAST WILL THEREFORE INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
IN SOME AREAS SOUTH OF I-16...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE BEAUFORT AREA...WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UP INTO THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MOST EXTENSIVE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
WHERE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FARTHER NORTH. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ALREADY TAKE THIS CLOUD
COVER INTO ACCOUNT AND DON/T SEE ANY REASON FOR CHANGES AT THIS
POINT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES
AND AREAS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 AS
THE POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THERE
IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR UPPER DIFLUENCE TO HANG OUR
HATS ON THUS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE POP SCHEME. IT CERTAINLY COULD
BE WET AROUND THE DARIEN AREA BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ACROSS MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION. BENEATH THIS FEATURE...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE
WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 02/00Z NAM/EURO DEPICTION OF INSTABILITY
DEPICTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. ALSO...WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED. ALSO OF
NOTE...HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F COULD BECOME COMMON OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AT MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS/WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS REGIME SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS LESS THAN EXPECTED QPF DUE IN PART TO DRIER AIR WEDGING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THUS...CAPPED MAXIMUM/AFTERNOON POPS
AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT. MEANWHILE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND A CATEGORY
LOWER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY. RAINS WILL NOT BE TOO
FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TONIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT MORE
LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS BUT TOO EARLY FOR ANY INTRODUCTIONS ON THE
12Z CYCLE.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT THE WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH WINDS
MAINLY SW TO S LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS INCREASE AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY
THE PM SEA BREEZE AND AM LAND BREEZE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTH. THUS...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE HOLDS WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE CAPPED AT 15
TO 20 KT/3 TO 4 FT. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. WILL ADJUST FORECASTS
AS NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE.../SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 021503
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1103 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA TODAY...BUT ITS NORTHWARD
PROGRESS WILL BE LIMITED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO TAKE MORE OF A
GRADUAL EASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE GEORGIA COAST BY LATE IN THE
DAY...KEEPING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG ITS NORTHERN
PERIPHERY.

THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...WHERE THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST. THE
FORECAST WILL THEREFORE INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
IN SOME AREAS SOUTH OF I-16...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE BEAUFORT AREA...WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UP INTO THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MOST EXTENSIVE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
WHERE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FARTHER NORTH. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ALREADY TAKE THIS CLOUD
COVER INTO ACCOUNT AND DON/T SEE ANY REASON FOR CHANGES AT THIS
POINT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES
AND AREAS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 AS
THE POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THERE
IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR UPPER DIFLUENCE TO HANG OUR
HATS ON THUS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE POP SCHEME. IT CERTAINLY COULD
BE WET AROUND THE DARIEN AREA BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ACROSS MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION. BENEATH THIS FEATURE...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE
WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 02/00Z NAM/EURO DEPICTION OF INSTABILITY
DEPICTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. ALSO...WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED. ALSO OF
NOTE...HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F COULD BECOME COMMON OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AT MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS/WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS REGIME SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS LESS THAN EXPECTED QPF DUE IN PART TO DRIER AIR WEDGING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THUS...CAPPED MAXIMUM/AFTERNOON POPS
AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT. MEANWHILE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND A CATEGORY
LOWER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY. RAINS WILL NOT BE TOO
FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TONIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT MORE
LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS BUT TOO EARLY FOR ANY INTRODUCTIONS ON THE
12Z CYCLE.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT THE WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH WINDS
MAINLY SW TO S LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS INCREASE AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY
THE PM SEA BREEZE AND AM LAND BREEZE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTH. THUS...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE HOLDS WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE CAPPED AT 15
TO 20 KT/3 TO 4 FT. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. WILL ADJUST FORECASTS
AS NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE.../SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 021503
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1103 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA TODAY...BUT ITS NORTHWARD
PROGRESS WILL BE LIMITED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO TAKE MORE OF A
GRADUAL EASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE GEORGIA COAST BY LATE IN THE
DAY...KEEPING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG ITS NORTHERN
PERIPHERY.

THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...WHERE THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST. THE
FORECAST WILL THEREFORE INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
IN SOME AREAS SOUTH OF I-16...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE BEAUFORT AREA...WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UP INTO THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MOST EXTENSIVE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
WHERE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FARTHER NORTH. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ALREADY TAKE THIS CLOUD
COVER INTO ACCOUNT AND DON/T SEE ANY REASON FOR CHANGES AT THIS
POINT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES
AND AREAS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 AS
THE POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THERE
IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR UPPER DIFLUENCE TO HANG OUR
HATS ON THUS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE POP SCHEME. IT CERTAINLY COULD
BE WET AROUND THE DARIEN AREA BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ACROSS MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION. BENEATH THIS FEATURE...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE
WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 02/00Z NAM/EURO DEPICTION OF INSTABILITY
DEPICTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. ALSO...WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED. ALSO OF
NOTE...HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F COULD BECOME COMMON OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AT MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS/WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS REGIME SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS LESS THAN EXPECTED QPF DUE IN PART TO DRIER AIR WEDGING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THUS...CAPPED MAXIMUM/AFTERNOON POPS
AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT. MEANWHILE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND A CATEGORY
LOWER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY. RAINS WILL NOT BE TOO
FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TONIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT MORE
LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS BUT TOO EARLY FOR ANY INTRODUCTIONS ON THE
12Z CYCLE.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT THE WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH WINDS
MAINLY SW TO S LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS INCREASE AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY
THE PM SEA BREEZE AND AM LAND BREEZE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTH. THUS...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE HOLDS WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE CAPPED AT 15
TO 20 KT/3 TO 4 FT. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. WILL ADJUST FORECASTS
AS NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE.../SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 021503
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1103 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA TODAY...BUT ITS NORTHWARD
PROGRESS WILL BE LIMITED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO TAKE MORE OF A
GRADUAL EASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE GEORGIA COAST BY LATE IN THE
DAY...KEEPING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG ITS NORTHERN
PERIPHERY.

THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...WHERE THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST. THE
FORECAST WILL THEREFORE INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
IN SOME AREAS SOUTH OF I-16...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE BEAUFORT AREA...WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UP INTO THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MOST EXTENSIVE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
WHERE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FARTHER NORTH. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ALREADY TAKE THIS CLOUD
COVER INTO ACCOUNT AND DON/T SEE ANY REASON FOR CHANGES AT THIS
POINT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES
AND AREAS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 AS
THE POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THERE
IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR UPPER DIFLUENCE TO HANG OUR
HATS ON THUS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE POP SCHEME. IT CERTAINLY COULD
BE WET AROUND THE DARIEN AREA BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ACROSS MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION. BENEATH THIS FEATURE...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE
WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 02/00Z NAM/EURO DEPICTION OF INSTABILITY
DEPICTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. ALSO...WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED. ALSO OF
NOTE...HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F COULD BECOME COMMON OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AT MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS/WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS REGIME SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS LESS THAN EXPECTED QPF DUE IN PART TO DRIER AIR WEDGING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THUS...CAPPED MAXIMUM/AFTERNOON POPS
AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT. MEANWHILE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND A CATEGORY
LOWER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY. RAINS WILL NOT BE TOO
FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TONIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT MORE
LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS BUT TOO EARLY FOR ANY INTRODUCTIONS ON THE
12Z CYCLE.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT THE WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH WINDS
MAINLY SW TO S LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS INCREASE AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY
THE PM SEA BREEZE AND AM LAND BREEZE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTH. THUS...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE HOLDS WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE CAPPED AT 15
TO 20 KT/3 TO 4 FT. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. WILL ADJUST FORECASTS
AS NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE.../SPR



000
FXUS62 KCAE 021411
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1011 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST
TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST...THROUGH FRIDAY. A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY...ENSURING FAIR WEATHER WITH A TREND TOWARDS WARMER MAX
TEMPS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER ENERGY
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS
OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA) WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE...ENSURING FAIR
WEATHER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY AND CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHALLOW DIURNAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
GUIDANCE TRENDING A LITTLE HIGHER ON MAX TEMPS. UPPER ENERGY AND
REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TS ERIKA...AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH STILL APPEARS WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS
MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LIFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING...APPEARS TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON SPECIFICS AND
TIMING...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO OR THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC LEADING TO INCREASING
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND POPS...AND TREND TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS.
WILL MAINTAIN BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT...ALONG WITH A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO AN
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER DAY. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND LACK OF
UPPER FORCING SUGGESTS CONVECTION PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND WILL
NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 021411
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1011 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST
TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST...THROUGH FRIDAY. A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY...ENSURING FAIR WEATHER WITH A TREND TOWARDS WARMER MAX
TEMPS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER ENERGY
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS
OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA) WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE...ENSURING FAIR
WEATHER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY AND CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHALLOW DIURNAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
GUIDANCE TRENDING A LITTLE HIGHER ON MAX TEMPS. UPPER ENERGY AND
REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TS ERIKA...AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH STILL APPEARS WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS
MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LIFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING...APPEARS TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON SPECIFICS AND
TIMING...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO OR THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC LEADING TO INCREASING
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND POPS...AND TREND TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS.
WILL MAINTAIN BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT...ALONG WITH A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO AN
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER DAY. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND LACK OF
UPPER FORCING SUGGESTS CONVECTION PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND WILL
NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 021411
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1011 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST
TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST...THROUGH FRIDAY. A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY...ENSURING FAIR WEATHER WITH A TREND TOWARDS WARMER MAX
TEMPS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER ENERGY
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS
OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA) WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE...ENSURING FAIR
WEATHER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY AND CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHALLOW DIURNAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
GUIDANCE TRENDING A LITTLE HIGHER ON MAX TEMPS. UPPER ENERGY AND
REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TS ERIKA...AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH STILL APPEARS WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS
MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LIFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING...APPEARS TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON SPECIFICS AND
TIMING...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO OR THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC LEADING TO INCREASING
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND POPS...AND TREND TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS.
WILL MAINTAIN BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT...ALONG WITH A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO AN
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER DAY. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND LACK OF
UPPER FORCING SUGGESTS CONVECTION PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND WILL
NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCHS 021142
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
742 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY THE SMALL KNOT OF VORTICITY AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE POOL
MAXIMA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO LIFT N TO NE
INTO SOUTH GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA LATER THIS
MORNING ONCE WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES
SET UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS WEAK
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO STRETCH MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT NUDGED ALONG A BIT BY THE SHORT WAVE MOVING SE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLC COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR
TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL AIR TO THE SOUTH THE MOISTURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS THE REGION MAKE POPS AND RAINFALL COVERAGE THE MOST
DEMANDING CHALLENGE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS SHOULD FALL OVER/NEAR THE OKEFENOKEE OR
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LUDOWICI AND VALDOSTA. CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN
ORDER ALONG AND S OF I-16 TODAY WITH SOME DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE ALTAMAHA AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW THE REMNANT OF
ERIKA BEHAVES...WE COULD SEE RAIN COVERAGE TRENDS GO EITHER WAY IN
OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. WE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN
THIS REGION GIVEN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LAYERED CLOUDS PER CMC/NAM
CLOUD FORECAST PROGS.

ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...DIMINISHING RETURNS FOR RAIN CHANCES FROM
S TO N. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT POPS
BELOW 20 PERCENT ARE BEST SERVED AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA. WARM
AND HUMID WEATHER WITH A MIX OF SUN AND MAINLY HIGHER CLOUDS...
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S NW ZONES...CLOSE TO THE MID 90S BORDERING
THE SE MIDLANDS.

TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 AS
THE POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THERE
IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR UPPER DIFLUENCE TO HANG OUR
HATS ON THUS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE POP SCHEME. IT CERTAINLY COULD
BE WET AROUND THE DARIEN AREA BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ACROSS MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION. BENEATH THIS FEATURE...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE
WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 02/00Z NAM/EURO DEPICTION OF INSTABILITY
DEPICTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. ALSO...WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED. ALSO OF
NOTE...HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F COULD BECOME COMMON OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AT MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS/WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS REGIME SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS LESS THAN EXPECTED QPF DUE IN PART TO DRIER AIR WEDGING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THUS...CAPPED MAXIMUM/AFTERNOON POPS
AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT. MEANWHILE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND A CATEGORY
LOWER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KSAV...AFTER A BOUT OF SHALLOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
CONDITIONS WERE ALREADY IMPROVING AT THE TERMINAL AROUND DAWN AND
WHILE THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR LOWER CIGS THROUGH 13Z...WE
THINK VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. RAINS WILL NOT BE TOO
FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TONIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT MORE
LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS BUT TOO EARLY FOR ANY INTRODUCTIONS ON THE
12Z CYCLE.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT THE WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH WINDS
MAINLY SW TO S LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS INCREASE AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY
THE PM SEA BREEZE AND AM LAND BREEZE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTH. THUS...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE HOLDS WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE CAPPED AT 15
TO 20 KT/3 TO 4 FT. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. WILL ADJUST FORECASTS
AS NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 021142
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
742 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY THE SMALL KNOT OF VORTICITY AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE POOL
MAXIMA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO LIFT N TO NE
INTO SOUTH GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA LATER THIS
MORNING ONCE WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES
SET UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS WEAK
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO STRETCH MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT NUDGED ALONG A BIT BY THE SHORT WAVE MOVING SE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLC COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR
TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL AIR TO THE SOUTH THE MOISTURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS THE REGION MAKE POPS AND RAINFALL COVERAGE THE MOST
DEMANDING CHALLENGE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS SHOULD FALL OVER/NEAR THE OKEFENOKEE OR
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LUDOWICI AND VALDOSTA. CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN
ORDER ALONG AND S OF I-16 TODAY WITH SOME DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE ALTAMAHA AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW THE REMNANT OF
ERIKA BEHAVES...WE COULD SEE RAIN COVERAGE TRENDS GO EITHER WAY IN
OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. WE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN
THIS REGION GIVEN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LAYERED CLOUDS PER CMC/NAM
CLOUD FORECAST PROGS.

ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...DIMINISHING RETURNS FOR RAIN CHANCES FROM
S TO N. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT POPS
BELOW 20 PERCENT ARE BEST SERVED AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA. WARM
AND HUMID WEATHER WITH A MIX OF SUN AND MAINLY HIGHER CLOUDS...
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S NW ZONES...CLOSE TO THE MID 90S BORDERING
THE SE MIDLANDS.

TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 AS
THE POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THERE
IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR UPPER DIFLUENCE TO HANG OUR
HATS ON THUS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE POP SCHEME. IT CERTAINLY COULD
BE WET AROUND THE DARIEN AREA BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ACROSS MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION. BENEATH THIS FEATURE...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE
WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 02/00Z NAM/EURO DEPICTION OF INSTABILITY
DEPICTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. ALSO...WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED. ALSO OF
NOTE...HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F COULD BECOME COMMON OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AT MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS/WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS REGIME SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS LESS THAN EXPECTED QPF DUE IN PART TO DRIER AIR WEDGING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THUS...CAPPED MAXIMUM/AFTERNOON POPS
AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT. MEANWHILE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND A CATEGORY
LOWER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KSAV...AFTER A BOUT OF SHALLOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
CONDITIONS WERE ALREADY IMPROVING AT THE TERMINAL AROUND DAWN AND
WHILE THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR LOWER CIGS THROUGH 13Z...WE
THINK VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. RAINS WILL NOT BE TOO
FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TONIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT MORE
LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS BUT TOO EARLY FOR ANY INTRODUCTIONS ON THE
12Z CYCLE.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT THE WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH WINDS
MAINLY SW TO S LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS INCREASE AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY
THE PM SEA BREEZE AND AM LAND BREEZE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTH. THUS...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE HOLDS WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE CAPPED AT 15
TO 20 KT/3 TO 4 FT. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. WILL ADJUST FORECASTS
AS NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 021142
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
742 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY THE SMALL KNOT OF VORTICITY AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE POOL
MAXIMA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO LIFT N TO NE
INTO SOUTH GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA LATER THIS
MORNING ONCE WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES
SET UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS WEAK
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO STRETCH MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT NUDGED ALONG A BIT BY THE SHORT WAVE MOVING SE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLC COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR
TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL AIR TO THE SOUTH THE MOISTURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS THE REGION MAKE POPS AND RAINFALL COVERAGE THE MOST
DEMANDING CHALLENGE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS SHOULD FALL OVER/NEAR THE OKEFENOKEE OR
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LUDOWICI AND VALDOSTA. CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN
ORDER ALONG AND S OF I-16 TODAY WITH SOME DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE ALTAMAHA AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW THE REMNANT OF
ERIKA BEHAVES...WE COULD SEE RAIN COVERAGE TRENDS GO EITHER WAY IN
OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. WE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN
THIS REGION GIVEN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LAYERED CLOUDS PER CMC/NAM
CLOUD FORECAST PROGS.

ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...DIMINISHING RETURNS FOR RAIN CHANCES FROM
S TO N. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT POPS
BELOW 20 PERCENT ARE BEST SERVED AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA. WARM
AND HUMID WEATHER WITH A MIX OF SUN AND MAINLY HIGHER CLOUDS...
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S NW ZONES...CLOSE TO THE MID 90S BORDERING
THE SE MIDLANDS.

TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 AS
THE POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THERE
IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR UPPER DIFLUENCE TO HANG OUR
HATS ON THUS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE POP SCHEME. IT CERTAINLY COULD
BE WET AROUND THE DARIEN AREA BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ACROSS MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION. BENEATH THIS FEATURE...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE
WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 02/00Z NAM/EURO DEPICTION OF INSTABILITY
DEPICTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. ALSO...WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED. ALSO OF
NOTE...HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F COULD BECOME COMMON OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AT MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS/WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS REGIME SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS LESS THAN EXPECTED QPF DUE IN PART TO DRIER AIR WEDGING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THUS...CAPPED MAXIMUM/AFTERNOON POPS
AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT. MEANWHILE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND A CATEGORY
LOWER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KSAV...AFTER A BOUT OF SHALLOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
CONDITIONS WERE ALREADY IMPROVING AT THE TERMINAL AROUND DAWN AND
WHILE THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR LOWER CIGS THROUGH 13Z...WE
THINK VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. RAINS WILL NOT BE TOO
FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TONIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT MORE
LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS BUT TOO EARLY FOR ANY INTRODUCTIONS ON THE
12Z CYCLE.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT THE WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH WINDS
MAINLY SW TO S LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS INCREASE AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY
THE PM SEA BREEZE AND AM LAND BREEZE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTH. THUS...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE HOLDS WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE CAPPED AT 15
TO 20 KT/3 TO 4 FT. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. WILL ADJUST FORECASTS
AS NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR



000
FXUS62 KFFC 021104 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
704 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE MOVING
OVER SE GA TODAY BRINGING A SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS
WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF CENTRAL GA...S OF CSG AND MCN. SOME ENHANCED INSTABILITY
OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS COULD LEAD TO A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THERE
THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS WELL. S OF THE NE MOUNTAINS
AND N OF CENTRAL GA...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE JUST TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SOME INCREASED
MOISTURE MOVE TO THE AREA...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SOME
FOR N GA. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK SO POP CHANCES ARE
RUNNING 20-40 PERCENT...HIGHEST OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND THURSDAY. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

BDL

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF MVFR FOG
TIL 13Z. SCT-BKN 3500-7000 FT SC/CU EXPECTED WITH VARYING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS VARIABLE OR WNW TO ENE AROUND 5
KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ANY LOWER CEILINGS AND WIND DIRECTION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  72  91  71 /  10   5  20  10
ATLANTA         89  73  90  73 /  10   5  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     85  65  85  64 /  30   5  40  10
CARTERSVILLE    89  70  90  68 /  10   5  20  10
COLUMBUS        90  74  91  74 /  20  10  30  10
GAINESVILLE     88  72  89  71 /  10   5  20  10
MACON           89  72  90  72 /  20  10  30  10
ROME            89  70  91  69 /  10   5  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  89  71  90  70 /  10   5  20  10
VIDALIA         89  73  91  73 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BDL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 021104 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
704 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE MOVING
OVER SE GA TODAY BRINGING A SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS
WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF CENTRAL GA...S OF CSG AND MCN. SOME ENHANCED INSTABILITY
OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS COULD LEAD TO A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THERE
THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS WELL. S OF THE NE MOUNTAINS
AND N OF CENTRAL GA...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE JUST TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SOME INCREASED
MOISTURE MOVE TO THE AREA...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SOME
FOR N GA. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK SO POP CHANCES ARE
RUNNING 20-40 PERCENT...HIGHEST OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND THURSDAY. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

BDL

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF MVFR FOG
TIL 13Z. SCT-BKN 3500-7000 FT SC/CU EXPECTED WITH VARYING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS VARIABLE OR WNW TO ENE AROUND 5
KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ANY LOWER CEILINGS AND WIND DIRECTION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  72  91  71 /  10   5  20  10
ATLANTA         89  73  90  73 /  10   5  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     85  65  85  64 /  30   5  40  10
CARTERSVILLE    89  70  90  68 /  10   5  20  10
COLUMBUS        90  74  91  74 /  20  10  30  10
GAINESVILLE     88  72  89  71 /  10   5  20  10
MACON           89  72  90  72 /  20  10  30  10
ROME            89  70  91  69 /  10   5  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  89  71  90  70 /  10   5  20  10
VIDALIA         89  73  91  73 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BDL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 021104 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
704 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE MOVING
OVER SE GA TODAY BRINGING A SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS
WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF CENTRAL GA...S OF CSG AND MCN. SOME ENHANCED INSTABILITY
OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS COULD LEAD TO A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THERE
THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS WELL. S OF THE NE MOUNTAINS
AND N OF CENTRAL GA...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE JUST TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SOME INCREASED
MOISTURE MOVE TO THE AREA...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SOME
FOR N GA. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK SO POP CHANCES ARE
RUNNING 20-40 PERCENT...HIGHEST OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND THURSDAY. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

BDL

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF MVFR FOG
TIL 13Z. SCT-BKN 3500-7000 FT SC/CU EXPECTED WITH VARYING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS VARIABLE OR WNW TO ENE AROUND 5
KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ANY LOWER CEILINGS AND WIND DIRECTION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  72  91  71 /  10   5  20  10
ATLANTA         89  73  90  73 /  10   5  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     85  65  85  64 /  30   5  40  10
CARTERSVILLE    89  70  90  68 /  10   5  20  10
COLUMBUS        90  74  91  74 /  20  10  30  10
GAINESVILLE     88  72  89  71 /  10   5  20  10
MACON           89  72  90  72 /  20  10  30  10
ROME            89  70  91  69 /  10   5  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  89  71  90  70 /  10   5  20  10
VIDALIA         89  73  91  73 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BDL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 021104 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
704 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE MOVING
OVER SE GA TODAY BRINGING A SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS
WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF CENTRAL GA...S OF CSG AND MCN. SOME ENHANCED INSTABILITY
OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS COULD LEAD TO A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THERE
THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS WELL. S OF THE NE MOUNTAINS
AND N OF CENTRAL GA...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE JUST TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SOME INCREASED
MOISTURE MOVE TO THE AREA...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SOME
FOR N GA. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK SO POP CHANCES ARE
RUNNING 20-40 PERCENT...HIGHEST OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND THURSDAY. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

BDL

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF MVFR FOG
TIL 13Z. SCT-BKN 3500-7000 FT SC/CU EXPECTED WITH VARYING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS VARIABLE OR WNW TO ENE AROUND 5
KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ANY LOWER CEILINGS AND WIND DIRECTION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  72  91  71 /  10   5  20  10
ATLANTA         89  73  90  73 /  10   5  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     85  65  85  64 /  30   5  40  10
CARTERSVILLE    89  70  90  68 /  10   5  20  10
COLUMBUS        90  74  91  74 /  20  10  30  10
GAINESVILLE     88  72  89  71 /  10   5  20  10
MACON           89  72  90  72 /  20  10  30  10
ROME            89  70  91  69 /  10   5  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  89  71  90  70 /  10   5  20  10
VIDALIA         89  73  91  73 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BDL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 021104 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
704 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE MOVING
OVER SE GA TODAY BRINGING A SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS
WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF CENTRAL GA...S OF CSG AND MCN. SOME ENHANCED INSTABILITY
OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS COULD LEAD TO A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THERE
THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS WELL. S OF THE NE MOUNTAINS
AND N OF CENTRAL GA...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE JUST TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SOME INCREASED
MOISTURE MOVE TO THE AREA...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SOME
FOR N GA. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK SO POP CHANCES ARE
RUNNING 20-40 PERCENT...HIGHEST OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND THURSDAY. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

BDL

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF MVFR FOG
TIL 13Z. SCT-BKN 3500-7000 FT SC/CU EXPECTED WITH VARYING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS VARIABLE OR WNW TO ENE AROUND 5
KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ANY LOWER CEILINGS AND WIND DIRECTION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  72  91  71 /  10   5  20  10
ATLANTA         89  73  90  73 /  10   5  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     85  65  85  64 /  30   5  40  10
CARTERSVILLE    89  70  90  68 /  10   5  20  10
COLUMBUS        90  74  91  74 /  20  10  30  10
GAINESVILLE     88  72  89  71 /  10   5  20  10
MACON           89  72  90  72 /  20  10  30  10
ROME            89  70  91  69 /  10   5  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  89  71  90  70 /  10   5  20  10
VIDALIA         89  73  91  73 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BDL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 021104 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
704 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE MOVING
OVER SE GA TODAY BRINGING A SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS
WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF CENTRAL GA...S OF CSG AND MCN. SOME ENHANCED INSTABILITY
OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS COULD LEAD TO A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THERE
THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS WELL. S OF THE NE MOUNTAINS
AND N OF CENTRAL GA...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE JUST TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SOME INCREASED
MOISTURE MOVE TO THE AREA...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SOME
FOR N GA. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK SO POP CHANCES ARE
RUNNING 20-40 PERCENT...HIGHEST OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND THURSDAY. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

BDL

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF MVFR FOG
TIL 13Z. SCT-BKN 3500-7000 FT SC/CU EXPECTED WITH VARYING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS VARIABLE OR WNW TO ENE AROUND 5
KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ANY LOWER CEILINGS AND WIND DIRECTION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  72  91  71 /  10   5  20  10
ATLANTA         89  73  90  73 /  10   5  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     85  65  85  64 /  30   5  40  10
CARTERSVILLE    89  70  90  68 /  10   5  20  10
COLUMBUS        90  74  91  74 /  20  10  30  10
GAINESVILLE     88  72  89  71 /  10   5  20  10
MACON           89  72  90  72 /  20  10  30  10
ROME            89  70  91  69 /  10   5  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  89  71  90  70 /  10   5  20  10
VIDALIA         89  73  91  73 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BDL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 020928
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
528 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...WATCHING PATCHES OF LIGHT RAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER EASING NORTHWARD BUT YOU STILL HAVE TO GO DOWN
TO THE BIG BEND AREA OF NORTH FLORIDA BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINS ARE OCCURRING. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IN THAT REGION WERE
DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH THIS MORNING. A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS
RESIDES ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AREA AND WE CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR DAYBREAK TO THE SOUTH OF
I-16. OTHERWISE...VARIOUS LAYERS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. PATCHY FOG HAD DEVELOPED AT QUITE
A FEW INLAND AREAS AND HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

TODAY THE SMALL KNOT OF VORTICITY AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE POOL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO LIFT N TO NE INTO SOUTH
GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA LATER THIS MORNING ONCE
WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES SET UP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO STRETCH MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH TONIGHT NUDGED ALONG
A BIT BY THE SHORT WAVE MOVING SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLC COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL
AIR TO THE SOUTH THE MOISTURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION MAKE
POPS AND RAINFALL COVERAGE THE MOST DEMANDING CHALLENGE THROUGH
TONIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS SHOULD
FALL OVER/NEAR THE OKEFENOKEE OR SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LUDOWICI AND
VALDOSTA. CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN ORDER ALONG AND S OF I-16 TODAY
WITH SOME DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ALTAMAHA
AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW THE REMNANT OF ERIKA BEHAVES...WE COULD SEE
RAIN COVERAGE TRENDS GO EITHER WAY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. WE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THIS REGION GIVEN FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE LAYERED CLOUDS PER CMC/NAM CLOUD FORECAST PROGS.

ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...DIMINISHING RETURNS FOR RAIN CHANCES FROM
S TO N. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT POPS
BELOW 20 PERCENT ARE BEST SERVED AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA. WARM
AND HUMID WEATHER WITH A MIX OF SUN AND MAINLY HIGHER CLOUDS...
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S NW ZONES...CLOSE TO THE MID 90S BORDERING
THE SE MIDLANDS.

TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 AS
THE POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THERE
IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR UPPER DIFLUENCE TO HANG OUR
HATS ON THUS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE POP SCHEME. IT CERTAINLY COULD
BE WET AROUND THE DARIEN AREA BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ACROSS MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION. BENEATH THIS FEATURE...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE
WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 02/00Z NAM/EURO DEPICTION OF INSTABILITY
DEPICTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. ALSO...WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED. ALSO OF
NOTE...HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F COULD BECOME COMMON OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AT MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS/WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS REGIME SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS LESS THAN EXPECTED QPF DUE IN PART TO DRIER AIR WEDGING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THUS...CAPPED MAXIMUM/AFTERNOON POPS
AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT. MEANWHILE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND A CATEGORY
LOWER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR KSAV BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA. SMALL CHANCES
FOR MVFR CIGS AT KSAV LATER TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT THE WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH WINDS
MAINLY SW TO S LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS INCREASE AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY
THE PM SEA BREEZE AND AM LAND BREEZE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTH. THUS...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE HOLDS WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE CAPPED AT 15
TO 20 KT/3 TO 4 FT. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. WILL ADJUST FORECASTS
AS NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 020928
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
528 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...WATCHING PATCHES OF LIGHT RAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER EASING NORTHWARD BUT YOU STILL HAVE TO GO DOWN
TO THE BIG BEND AREA OF NORTH FLORIDA BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINS ARE OCCURRING. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IN THAT REGION WERE
DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH THIS MORNING. A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS
RESIDES ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AREA AND WE CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR DAYBREAK TO THE SOUTH OF
I-16. OTHERWISE...VARIOUS LAYERS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. PATCHY FOG HAD DEVELOPED AT QUITE
A FEW INLAND AREAS AND HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

TODAY THE SMALL KNOT OF VORTICITY AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE POOL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO LIFT N TO NE INTO SOUTH
GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA LATER THIS MORNING ONCE
WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES SET UP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO STRETCH MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH TONIGHT NUDGED ALONG
A BIT BY THE SHORT WAVE MOVING SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLC COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL
AIR TO THE SOUTH THE MOISTURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION MAKE
POPS AND RAINFALL COVERAGE THE MOST DEMANDING CHALLENGE THROUGH
TONIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS SHOULD
FALL OVER/NEAR THE OKEFENOKEE OR SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LUDOWICI AND
VALDOSTA. CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN ORDER ALONG AND S OF I-16 TODAY
WITH SOME DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ALTAMAHA
AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW THE REMNANT OF ERIKA BEHAVES...WE COULD SEE
RAIN COVERAGE TRENDS GO EITHER WAY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. WE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THIS REGION GIVEN FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE LAYERED CLOUDS PER CMC/NAM CLOUD FORECAST PROGS.

ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...DIMINISHING RETURNS FOR RAIN CHANCES FROM
S TO N. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT POPS
BELOW 20 PERCENT ARE BEST SERVED AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA. WARM
AND HUMID WEATHER WITH A MIX OF SUN AND MAINLY HIGHER CLOUDS...
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S NW ZONES...CLOSE TO THE MID 90S BORDERING
THE SE MIDLANDS.

TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 AS
THE POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THERE
IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR UPPER DIFLUENCE TO HANG OUR
HATS ON THUS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE POP SCHEME. IT CERTAINLY COULD
BE WET AROUND THE DARIEN AREA BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ACROSS MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION. BENEATH THIS FEATURE...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE
WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 02/00Z NAM/EURO DEPICTION OF INSTABILITY
DEPICTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. ALSO...WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED. ALSO OF
NOTE...HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F COULD BECOME COMMON OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AT MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS/WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS REGIME SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS LESS THAN EXPECTED QPF DUE IN PART TO DRIER AIR WEDGING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THUS...CAPPED MAXIMUM/AFTERNOON POPS
AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT. MEANWHILE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND A CATEGORY
LOWER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR KSAV BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA. SMALL CHANCES
FOR MVFR CIGS AT KSAV LATER TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT THE WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH WINDS
MAINLY SW TO S LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS INCREASE AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY
THE PM SEA BREEZE AND AM LAND BREEZE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTH. THUS...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE HOLDS WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE CAPPED AT 15
TO 20 KT/3 TO 4 FT. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. WILL ADJUST FORECASTS
AS NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 020928
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
528 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...WATCHING PATCHES OF LIGHT RAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER EASING NORTHWARD BUT YOU STILL HAVE TO GO DOWN
TO THE BIG BEND AREA OF NORTH FLORIDA BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINS ARE OCCURRING. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IN THAT REGION WERE
DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH THIS MORNING. A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS
RESIDES ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AREA AND WE CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR DAYBREAK TO THE SOUTH OF
I-16. OTHERWISE...VARIOUS LAYERS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. PATCHY FOG HAD DEVELOPED AT QUITE
A FEW INLAND AREAS AND HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

TODAY THE SMALL KNOT OF VORTICITY AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE POOL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO LIFT N TO NE INTO SOUTH
GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA LATER THIS MORNING ONCE
WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES SET UP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO STRETCH MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH TONIGHT NUDGED ALONG
A BIT BY THE SHORT WAVE MOVING SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLC COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL
AIR TO THE SOUTH THE MOISTURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION MAKE
POPS AND RAINFALL COVERAGE THE MOST DEMANDING CHALLENGE THROUGH
TONIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS SHOULD
FALL OVER/NEAR THE OKEFENOKEE OR SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LUDOWICI AND
VALDOSTA. CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN ORDER ALONG AND S OF I-16 TODAY
WITH SOME DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ALTAMAHA
AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW THE REMNANT OF ERIKA BEHAVES...WE COULD SEE
RAIN COVERAGE TRENDS GO EITHER WAY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. WE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THIS REGION GIVEN FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE LAYERED CLOUDS PER CMC/NAM CLOUD FORECAST PROGS.

ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...DIMINISHING RETURNS FOR RAIN CHANCES FROM
S TO N. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT POPS
BELOW 20 PERCENT ARE BEST SERVED AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA. WARM
AND HUMID WEATHER WITH A MIX OF SUN AND MAINLY HIGHER CLOUDS...
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S NW ZONES...CLOSE TO THE MID 90S BORDERING
THE SE MIDLANDS.

TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 AS
THE POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THERE
IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR UPPER DIFLUENCE TO HANG OUR
HATS ON THUS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE POP SCHEME. IT CERTAINLY COULD
BE WET AROUND THE DARIEN AREA BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ACROSS MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION. BENEATH THIS FEATURE...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE
WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 02/00Z NAM/EURO DEPICTION OF INSTABILITY
DEPICTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. ALSO...WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED. ALSO OF
NOTE...HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F COULD BECOME COMMON OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AT MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS/WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS REGIME SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS LESS THAN EXPECTED QPF DUE IN PART TO DRIER AIR WEDGING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THUS...CAPPED MAXIMUM/AFTERNOON POPS
AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT. MEANWHILE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND A CATEGORY
LOWER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR KSAV BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA. SMALL CHANCES
FOR MVFR CIGS AT KSAV LATER TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT THE WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH WINDS
MAINLY SW TO S LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS INCREASE AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY
THE PM SEA BREEZE AND AM LAND BREEZE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTH. THUS...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE HOLDS WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE CAPPED AT 15
TO 20 KT/3 TO 4 FT. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. WILL ADJUST FORECASTS
AS NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 020928
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
528 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...WATCHING PATCHES OF LIGHT RAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER EASING NORTHWARD BUT YOU STILL HAVE TO GO DOWN
TO THE BIG BEND AREA OF NORTH FLORIDA BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINS ARE OCCURRING. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IN THAT REGION WERE
DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH THIS MORNING. A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS
RESIDES ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AREA AND WE CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR DAYBREAK TO THE SOUTH OF
I-16. OTHERWISE...VARIOUS LAYERS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. PATCHY FOG HAD DEVELOPED AT QUITE
A FEW INLAND AREAS AND HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

TODAY THE SMALL KNOT OF VORTICITY AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE POOL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO LIFT N TO NE INTO SOUTH
GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA LATER THIS MORNING ONCE
WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES SET UP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO STRETCH MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH TONIGHT NUDGED ALONG
A BIT BY THE SHORT WAVE MOVING SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLC COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL
AIR TO THE SOUTH THE MOISTURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION MAKE
POPS AND RAINFALL COVERAGE THE MOST DEMANDING CHALLENGE THROUGH
TONIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS SHOULD
FALL OVER/NEAR THE OKEFENOKEE OR SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LUDOWICI AND
VALDOSTA. CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN ORDER ALONG AND S OF I-16 TODAY
WITH SOME DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ALTAMAHA
AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW THE REMNANT OF ERIKA BEHAVES...WE COULD SEE
RAIN COVERAGE TRENDS GO EITHER WAY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. WE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THIS REGION GIVEN FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE LAYERED CLOUDS PER CMC/NAM CLOUD FORECAST PROGS.

ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...DIMINISHING RETURNS FOR RAIN CHANCES FROM
S TO N. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT POPS
BELOW 20 PERCENT ARE BEST SERVED AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA. WARM
AND HUMID WEATHER WITH A MIX OF SUN AND MAINLY HIGHER CLOUDS...
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S NW ZONES...CLOSE TO THE MID 90S BORDERING
THE SE MIDLANDS.

TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 AS
THE POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THERE
IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR UPPER DIFLUENCE TO HANG OUR
HATS ON THUS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE POP SCHEME. IT CERTAINLY COULD
BE WET AROUND THE DARIEN AREA BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ACROSS MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION. BENEATH THIS FEATURE...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE
WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 02/00Z NAM/EURO DEPICTION OF INSTABILITY
DEPICTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. ALSO...WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED. ALSO OF
NOTE...HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F COULD BECOME COMMON OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AT MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS/WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS REGIME SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS LESS THAN EXPECTED QPF DUE IN PART TO DRIER AIR WEDGING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THUS...CAPPED MAXIMUM/AFTERNOON POPS
AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT. MEANWHILE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND A CATEGORY
LOWER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR KSAV BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA. SMALL CHANCES
FOR MVFR CIGS AT KSAV LATER TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT THE WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH WINDS
MAINLY SW TO S LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS INCREASE AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY
THE PM SEA BREEZE AND AM LAND BREEZE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTH. THUS...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE HOLDS WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE CAPPED AT 15
TO 20 KT/3 TO 4 FT. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. WILL ADJUST FORECASTS
AS NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 020928
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
528 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...WATCHING PATCHES OF LIGHT RAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER EASING NORTHWARD BUT YOU STILL HAVE TO GO DOWN
TO THE BIG BEND AREA OF NORTH FLORIDA BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINS ARE OCCURRING. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IN THAT REGION WERE
DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH THIS MORNING. A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS
RESIDES ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AREA AND WE CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR DAYBREAK TO THE SOUTH OF
I-16. OTHERWISE...VARIOUS LAYERS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. PATCHY FOG HAD DEVELOPED AT QUITE
A FEW INLAND AREAS AND HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

TODAY THE SMALL KNOT OF VORTICITY AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE POOL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO LIFT N TO NE INTO SOUTH
GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA LATER THIS MORNING ONCE
WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES SET UP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO STRETCH MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH TONIGHT NUDGED ALONG
A BIT BY THE SHORT WAVE MOVING SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLC COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL
AIR TO THE SOUTH THE MOISTURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION MAKE
POPS AND RAINFALL COVERAGE THE MOST DEMANDING CHALLENGE THROUGH
TONIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS SHOULD
FALL OVER/NEAR THE OKEFENOKEE OR SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LUDOWICI AND
VALDOSTA. CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN ORDER ALONG AND S OF I-16 TODAY
WITH SOME DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ALTAMAHA
AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW THE REMNANT OF ERIKA BEHAVES...WE COULD SEE
RAIN COVERAGE TRENDS GO EITHER WAY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. WE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THIS REGION GIVEN FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE LAYERED CLOUDS PER CMC/NAM CLOUD FORECAST PROGS.

ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...DIMINISHING RETURNS FOR RAIN CHANCES FROM
S TO N. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT POPS
BELOW 20 PERCENT ARE BEST SERVED AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA. WARM
AND HUMID WEATHER WITH A MIX OF SUN AND MAINLY HIGHER CLOUDS...
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S NW ZONES...CLOSE TO THE MID 90S BORDERING
THE SE MIDLANDS.

TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 AS
THE POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THERE
IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR UPPER DIFLUENCE TO HANG OUR
HATS ON THUS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE POP SCHEME. IT CERTAINLY COULD
BE WET AROUND THE DARIEN AREA BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ACROSS MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION. BENEATH THIS FEATURE...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE
WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 02/00Z NAM/EURO DEPICTION OF INSTABILITY
DEPICTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. ALSO...WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED. ALSO OF
NOTE...HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F COULD BECOME COMMON OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AT MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS/WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS REGIME SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS LESS THAN EXPECTED QPF DUE IN PART TO DRIER AIR WEDGING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THUS...CAPPED MAXIMUM/AFTERNOON POPS
AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT. MEANWHILE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND A CATEGORY
LOWER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR KSAV BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA. SMALL CHANCES
FOR MVFR CIGS AT KSAV LATER TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT THE WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH WINDS
MAINLY SW TO S LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS INCREASE AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY
THE PM SEA BREEZE AND AM LAND BREEZE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTH. THUS...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE HOLDS WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE CAPPED AT 15
TO 20 KT/3 TO 4 FT. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. WILL ADJUST FORECASTS
AS NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 020928
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
528 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...WATCHING PATCHES OF LIGHT RAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER EASING NORTHWARD BUT YOU STILL HAVE TO GO DOWN
TO THE BIG BEND AREA OF NORTH FLORIDA BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINS ARE OCCURRING. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IN THAT REGION WERE
DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH THIS MORNING. A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS
RESIDES ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AREA AND WE CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR DAYBREAK TO THE SOUTH OF
I-16. OTHERWISE...VARIOUS LAYERS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. PATCHY FOG HAD DEVELOPED AT QUITE
A FEW INLAND AREAS AND HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

TODAY THE SMALL KNOT OF VORTICITY AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE POOL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO LIFT N TO NE INTO SOUTH
GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA LATER THIS MORNING ONCE
WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES SET UP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO STRETCH MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH TONIGHT NUDGED ALONG
A BIT BY THE SHORT WAVE MOVING SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLC COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL
AIR TO THE SOUTH THE MOISTURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION MAKE
POPS AND RAINFALL COVERAGE THE MOST DEMANDING CHALLENGE THROUGH
TONIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS SHOULD
FALL OVER/NEAR THE OKEFENOKEE OR SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LUDOWICI AND
VALDOSTA. CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN ORDER ALONG AND S OF I-16 TODAY
WITH SOME DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ALTAMAHA
AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW THE REMNANT OF ERIKA BEHAVES...WE COULD SEE
RAIN COVERAGE TRENDS GO EITHER WAY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. WE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THIS REGION GIVEN FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE LAYERED CLOUDS PER CMC/NAM CLOUD FORECAST PROGS.

ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...DIMINISHING RETURNS FOR RAIN CHANCES FROM
S TO N. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT POPS
BELOW 20 PERCENT ARE BEST SERVED AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA. WARM
AND HUMID WEATHER WITH A MIX OF SUN AND MAINLY HIGHER CLOUDS...
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S NW ZONES...CLOSE TO THE MID 90S BORDERING
THE SE MIDLANDS.

TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 AS
THE POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THERE
IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR UPPER DIFLUENCE TO HANG OUR
HATS ON THUS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE POP SCHEME. IT CERTAINLY COULD
BE WET AROUND THE DARIEN AREA BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ACROSS MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION. BENEATH THIS FEATURE...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE
WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 02/00Z NAM/EURO DEPICTION OF INSTABILITY
DEPICTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. ALSO...WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED. ALSO OF
NOTE...HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F COULD BECOME COMMON OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AT MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS/WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS REGIME SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS LESS THAN EXPECTED QPF DUE IN PART TO DRIER AIR WEDGING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THUS...CAPPED MAXIMUM/AFTERNOON POPS
AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT. MEANWHILE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND A CATEGORY
LOWER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR KSAV BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA. SMALL CHANCES
FOR MVFR CIGS AT KSAV LATER TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT THE WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH WINDS
MAINLY SW TO S LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS INCREASE AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY
THE PM SEA BREEZE AND AM LAND BREEZE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTH. THUS...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE HOLDS WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE CAPPED AT 15
TO 20 KT/3 TO 4 FT. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. WILL ADJUST FORECASTS
AS NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 020808
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
408 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...WATCHING PATCHES OF LIGHT RAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER EASING NORTHWARD BUT YOU STILL HAVE TO GO DOWN
TO THE BIG BEND AREA OF NORTH FLORIDA BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINS ARE OCCURRING. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IN THAT REGION WERE
DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH THIS MORNING. A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS
RESIDES ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AREA AND WE CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR DAYBREAK TO THE SOUTH OF
I-16. OTHERWISE...VARIOUS LAYERS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S.

TODAY THE SMALL KNOT OF VORTICITY AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE POOL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO LIFT N TO NE INTO SOUTH
GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA LATER THIS MORNING ONCE
WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES SET UP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO STRETCH MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH TONIGHT NUDGED ALONG
A BIT BY THE SHORT WAVE MOVING SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLC COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL
AIR TO THE SOUTH THE MOISTURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION MAKE
POPS AND RAINFALL COVERAGE THE MOST DEMANDING CHALLENGE THROUGH
TONIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS SHOULD
FALL OVER/NEAR THE OKEFENOKEE OR SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LUDOWICI AND
VALDOSTA. CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN ORDER ALONG AND S OF I-16 TODAY
WITH SOME DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ALTAMAHA
AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW THE REMNANT OF ERIKA BEHAVES...WE COULD SEE
RAIN COVERAGE TRENDS GO EITHER WAY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. WE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THIS REGION GIVEN FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE LAYERED CLOUDS PER CMC/NAM CLOUD FORECAST PROGS.

ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...DIMINISHING RETURNS FOR RAIN CHANCES FROM
S TO N. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT POPS
BELOW 20 PERCENT ARE BEST SERVED AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA. WARM
AND HUMID WEATHER WITH A MIX OF SUN AND MAINLY HIGHER CLOUDS...
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S NW ZONES...CLOSE TO THE MID 90S BORDERING
THE SE MIDLANDS.

TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 AS
THE POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THERE
IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR UPPER DIFLUENCE TO HANG OUR
HATS ON THUS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE POP SCHEME. IT CERTAINLY COULD
BE WET AROUND THE DARIEN AREA BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ACROSS MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION. BENEATH THIS FEATURE...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE
WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 02/00Z NAM/EURO DEPICTION OF INSTABILITY
DEPICTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. ALSO...WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED. ALSO OF
NOTE...HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F COULD BECOME COMMON OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AT MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS/WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS REGIME SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS LESS THAN EXPECTED QPF DUE IN PART TO DRIER AIR WEDGING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THUS...CAPPED MAXIMUM/AFTERNOON POPS
AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT. MEANWHILE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND A CATEGORY
LOWER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR KSAV BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA. SMALL CHANCES
FOR MVFR CIGS AT KSAV LATER TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT THE WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH WINDS
MAINLY SW TO S LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS INCREASE AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY
THE PM SEA BREEZE AND AM LAND BREEZE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTH. THUS...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE HOLDS WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE CAPPED AT 15
TO 20 KT/3 TO 4 FT. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. WILL ADJUST FORECASTS
AS NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 020808
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
408 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...WATCHING PATCHES OF LIGHT RAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER EASING NORTHWARD BUT YOU STILL HAVE TO GO DOWN
TO THE BIG BEND AREA OF NORTH FLORIDA BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINS ARE OCCURRING. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IN THAT REGION WERE
DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH THIS MORNING. A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS
RESIDES ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AREA AND WE CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR DAYBREAK TO THE SOUTH OF
I-16. OTHERWISE...VARIOUS LAYERS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S.

TODAY THE SMALL KNOT OF VORTICITY AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE POOL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO LIFT N TO NE INTO SOUTH
GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA LATER THIS MORNING ONCE
WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES SET UP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO STRETCH MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH TONIGHT NUDGED ALONG
A BIT BY THE SHORT WAVE MOVING SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLC COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL
AIR TO THE SOUTH THE MOISTURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION MAKE
POPS AND RAINFALL COVERAGE THE MOST DEMANDING CHALLENGE THROUGH
TONIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS SHOULD
FALL OVER/NEAR THE OKEFENOKEE OR SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LUDOWICI AND
VALDOSTA. CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN ORDER ALONG AND S OF I-16 TODAY
WITH SOME DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ALTAMAHA
AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW THE REMNANT OF ERIKA BEHAVES...WE COULD SEE
RAIN COVERAGE TRENDS GO EITHER WAY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. WE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THIS REGION GIVEN FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE LAYERED CLOUDS PER CMC/NAM CLOUD FORECAST PROGS.

ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...DIMINISHING RETURNS FOR RAIN CHANCES FROM
S TO N. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT POPS
BELOW 20 PERCENT ARE BEST SERVED AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA. WARM
AND HUMID WEATHER WITH A MIX OF SUN AND MAINLY HIGHER CLOUDS...
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S NW ZONES...CLOSE TO THE MID 90S BORDERING
THE SE MIDLANDS.

TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 AS
THE POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THERE
IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR UPPER DIFLUENCE TO HANG OUR
HATS ON THUS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE POP SCHEME. IT CERTAINLY COULD
BE WET AROUND THE DARIEN AREA BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ACROSS MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION. BENEATH THIS FEATURE...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE
WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 02/00Z NAM/EURO DEPICTION OF INSTABILITY
DEPICTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. ALSO...WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED. ALSO OF
NOTE...HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F COULD BECOME COMMON OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AT MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS/WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS REGIME SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS LESS THAN EXPECTED QPF DUE IN PART TO DRIER AIR WEDGING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THUS...CAPPED MAXIMUM/AFTERNOON POPS
AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT. MEANWHILE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND A CATEGORY
LOWER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR KSAV BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA. SMALL CHANCES
FOR MVFR CIGS AT KSAV LATER TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT THE WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH WINDS
MAINLY SW TO S LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS INCREASE AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY
THE PM SEA BREEZE AND AM LAND BREEZE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTH. THUS...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE HOLDS WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE CAPPED AT 15
TO 20 KT/3 TO 4 FT. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. WILL ADJUST FORECASTS
AS NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 020808
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
408 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...WATCHING PATCHES OF LIGHT RAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER EASING NORTHWARD BUT YOU STILL HAVE TO GO DOWN
TO THE BIG BEND AREA OF NORTH FLORIDA BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINS ARE OCCURRING. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IN THAT REGION WERE
DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH THIS MORNING. A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS
RESIDES ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AREA AND WE CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR DAYBREAK TO THE SOUTH OF
I-16. OTHERWISE...VARIOUS LAYERS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S.

TODAY THE SMALL KNOT OF VORTICITY AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE POOL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO LIFT N TO NE INTO SOUTH
GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA LATER THIS MORNING ONCE
WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES SET UP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO STRETCH MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH TONIGHT NUDGED ALONG
A BIT BY THE SHORT WAVE MOVING SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLC COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL
AIR TO THE SOUTH THE MOISTURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION MAKE
POPS AND RAINFALL COVERAGE THE MOST DEMANDING CHALLENGE THROUGH
TONIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS SHOULD
FALL OVER/NEAR THE OKEFENOKEE OR SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LUDOWICI AND
VALDOSTA. CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN ORDER ALONG AND S OF I-16 TODAY
WITH SOME DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ALTAMAHA
AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW THE REMNANT OF ERIKA BEHAVES...WE COULD SEE
RAIN COVERAGE TRENDS GO EITHER WAY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. WE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THIS REGION GIVEN FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE LAYERED CLOUDS PER CMC/NAM CLOUD FORECAST PROGS.

ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...DIMINISHING RETURNS FOR RAIN CHANCES FROM
S TO N. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT POPS
BELOW 20 PERCENT ARE BEST SERVED AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA. WARM
AND HUMID WEATHER WITH A MIX OF SUN AND MAINLY HIGHER CLOUDS...
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S NW ZONES...CLOSE TO THE MID 90S BORDERING
THE SE MIDLANDS.

TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 AS
THE POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THERE
IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR UPPER DIFLUENCE TO HANG OUR
HATS ON THUS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE POP SCHEME. IT CERTAINLY COULD
BE WET AROUND THE DARIEN AREA BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ACROSS MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION. BENEATH THIS FEATURE...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE
WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 02/00Z NAM/EURO DEPICTION OF INSTABILITY
DEPICTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. ALSO...WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED. ALSO OF
NOTE...HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F COULD BECOME COMMON OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AT MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS/WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS REGIME SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS LESS THAN EXPECTED QPF DUE IN PART TO DRIER AIR WEDGING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THUS...CAPPED MAXIMUM/AFTERNOON POPS
AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT. MEANWHILE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND A CATEGORY
LOWER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR KSAV BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA. SMALL CHANCES
FOR MVFR CIGS AT KSAV LATER TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT THE WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH WINDS
MAINLY SW TO S LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS INCREASE AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY
THE PM SEA BREEZE AND AM LAND BREEZE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTH. THUS...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE HOLDS WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE CAPPED AT 15
TO 20 KT/3 TO 4 FT. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. WILL ADJUST FORECASTS
AS NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 020808
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
408 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...WATCHING PATCHES OF LIGHT RAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER EASING NORTHWARD BUT YOU STILL HAVE TO GO DOWN
TO THE BIG BEND AREA OF NORTH FLORIDA BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINS ARE OCCURRING. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IN THAT REGION WERE
DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH THIS MORNING. A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS
RESIDES ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AREA AND WE CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR DAYBREAK TO THE SOUTH OF
I-16. OTHERWISE...VARIOUS LAYERS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S.

TODAY THE SMALL KNOT OF VORTICITY AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE POOL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO LIFT N TO NE INTO SOUTH
GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA LATER THIS MORNING ONCE
WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES SET UP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO STRETCH MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH TONIGHT NUDGED ALONG
A BIT BY THE SHORT WAVE MOVING SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLC COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL
AIR TO THE SOUTH THE MOISTURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION MAKE
POPS AND RAINFALL COVERAGE THE MOST DEMANDING CHALLENGE THROUGH
TONIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS SHOULD
FALL OVER/NEAR THE OKEFENOKEE OR SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LUDOWICI AND
VALDOSTA. CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN ORDER ALONG AND S OF I-16 TODAY
WITH SOME DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ALTAMAHA
AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW THE REMNANT OF ERIKA BEHAVES...WE COULD SEE
RAIN COVERAGE TRENDS GO EITHER WAY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. WE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN THIS REGION GIVEN FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE LAYERED CLOUDS PER CMC/NAM CLOUD FORECAST PROGS.

ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...DIMINISHING RETURNS FOR RAIN CHANCES FROM
S TO N. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT POPS
BELOW 20 PERCENT ARE BEST SERVED AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA. WARM
AND HUMID WEATHER WITH A MIX OF SUN AND MAINLY HIGHER CLOUDS...
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S NW ZONES...CLOSE TO THE MID 90S BORDERING
THE SE MIDLANDS.

TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 AS
THE POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THERE
IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR UPPER DIFLUENCE TO HANG OUR
HATS ON THUS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE POP SCHEME. IT CERTAINLY COULD
BE WET AROUND THE DARIEN AREA BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ACROSS MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION. BENEATH THIS FEATURE...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE
WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 02/00Z NAM/EURO DEPICTION OF INSTABILITY
DEPICTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. ALSO...WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED. ALSO OF
NOTE...HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F COULD BECOME COMMON OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AT MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS/WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS REGIME SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS LESS THAN EXPECTED QPF DUE IN PART TO DRIER AIR WEDGING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THUS...CAPPED MAXIMUM/AFTERNOON POPS
AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT. MEANWHILE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND A CATEGORY
LOWER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR KSAV BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA. SMALL CHANCES
FOR MVFR CIGS AT KSAV LATER TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT THE WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH WINDS
MAINLY SW TO S LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS INCREASE AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY
THE PM SEA BREEZE AND AM LAND BREEZE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTH. THUS...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE HOLDS WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE CAPPED AT 15
TO 20 KT/3 TO 4 FT. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. WILL ADJUST FORECASTS
AS NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR




000
FXUS62 KFFC 020742
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE MOVING
OVER SE GA TODAY BRINGING A SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS
WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF CENTRAL GA...S OF CSG AND MCN. SOME ENHANCED INSTABILITY
OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS COULD LEAD TO A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THERE
THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS WELL. S OF THE NE MOUNTAINS
AND N OF CENTRAL GA...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE JUST TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SOME INCREASED
MOISTURE MOVE TO THE AREA...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SOME
FOR N GA. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK SO POP CHANCES ARE
RUNNING 20-40 PERCENT...HIGHEST OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND THURSDAY. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

BDL


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF MVFR FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING TIL 13Z. SCT-BKN 3500-6000 FT CU EXPECTED
WITH VARYING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS
CALM OVERNIGHT BECOMING VARIABLE OR NW AROUND 5 KTS DURING THE
DAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ANY CEILINGS AND WIND DIRECTION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  72  91  71 /  10   5  20  10
ATLANTA         89  73  90  73 /  10   5  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     85  65  85  64 /  30   5  40  10
CARTERSVILLE    89  70  90  68 /  10   5  20  10
COLUMBUS        90  74  91  74 /  20  10  30  10
GAINESVILLE     88  72  89  71 /  10   5  20  10
MACON           89  72  90  72 /  20  10  30  10
ROME            89  70  91  69 /  10   5  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  89  71  90  70 /  10   5  20  10
VIDALIA         89  73  91  73 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BDL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 020742
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE MOVING
OVER SE GA TODAY BRINGING A SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS
WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF CENTRAL GA...S OF CSG AND MCN. SOME ENHANCED INSTABILITY
OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS COULD LEAD TO A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THERE
THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS WELL. S OF THE NE MOUNTAINS
AND N OF CENTRAL GA...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE JUST TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SOME INCREASED
MOISTURE MOVE TO THE AREA...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SOME
FOR N GA. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK SO POP CHANCES ARE
RUNNING 20-40 PERCENT...HIGHEST OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND THURSDAY. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

BDL


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE EXTENDED WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WILL
RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THE COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS MORE ENTRENCHED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND LINGER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THIS REASON HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

RW


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF MVFR FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING TIL 13Z. SCT-BKN 3500-6000 FT CU EXPECTED
WITH VARYING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS
CALM OVERNIGHT BECOMING VARIABLE OR NW AROUND 5 KTS DURING THE
DAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ANY CEILINGS AND WIND DIRECTION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  72  91  71 /  10   5  20  10
ATLANTA         89  73  90  73 /  10   5  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     85  65  85  64 /  30   5  40  10
CARTERSVILLE    89  70  90  68 /  10   5  20  10
COLUMBUS        90  74  91  74 /  20  10  30  10
GAINESVILLE     88  72  89  71 /  10   5  20  10
MACON           89  72  90  72 /  20  10  30  10
ROME            89  70  91  69 /  10   5  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  89  71  90  70 /  10   5  20  10
VIDALIA         89  73  91  73 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BDL



000
FXUS62 KCAE 020628
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
228 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST
TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST...THROUGH FRIDAY. A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY...ENSURING FAIR WEATHER WITH A TREND TOWARDS WARMER MAX
TEMPS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER ENERGY
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS
OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA) WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE...ENSURING FAIR
WEATHER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY AND CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHALLOW DIURNAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
GUIDANCE TRENDING A LITTLE HIGHER ON MAX TEMPS. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER ENERGY AND REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF FORMER TS ERIKA...AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH STILL APPEARS WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS
MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LIFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING...APPEARS TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON SPECIFICS AND
TIMING...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO OR THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC LEADING TO INCREASING
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND POPS...AND TREND TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS.
WILL MAINTAIN BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT...ALONG WITH A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO AN
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER DAY. HOWEVER...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY
THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN MVFR VSBYS AT AGS AND EXPECT
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT AGS AND EVENTUALLY LATER AT OGB. HRRR CEILING
FORECAST INDICATES SOME POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS MOVING INTO OGB AROUND
10-11Z BUT NO OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND LACK OF
UPPER FORCING SUGGESTS CONVECTION PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND WILL
NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 020628
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
228 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST
TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST...THROUGH FRIDAY. A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY...ENSURING FAIR WEATHER WITH A TREND TOWARDS WARMER MAX
TEMPS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER ENERGY
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS
OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA) WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE...ENSURING FAIR
WEATHER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY AND CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHALLOW DIURNAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
GUIDANCE TRENDING A LITTLE HIGHER ON MAX TEMPS. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER ENERGY AND REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF FORMER TS ERIKA...AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH STILL APPEARS WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS
MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LIFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING...APPEARS TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON SPECIFICS AND
TIMING...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO OR THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC LEADING TO INCREASING
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND POPS...AND TREND TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS.
WILL MAINTAIN BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT...ALONG WITH A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO AN
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER DAY. HOWEVER...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY
THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN MVFR VSBYS AT AGS AND EXPECT
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT AGS AND EVENTUALLY LATER AT OGB. HRRR CEILING
FORECAST INDICATES SOME POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS MOVING INTO OGB AROUND
10-11Z BUT NO OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND LACK OF
UPPER FORCING SUGGESTS CONVECTION PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND WILL
NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 020628
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
228 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WEST
TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST COAST...THROUGH FRIDAY. A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY...ENSURING FAIR WEATHER WITH A TREND TOWARDS WARMER MAX
TEMPS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER ENERGY
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INDICATIONS
OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA) WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE...ENSURING FAIR
WEATHER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY AND CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHALLOW DIURNAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
GUIDANCE TRENDING A LITTLE HIGHER ON MAX TEMPS. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER ENERGY AND REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF FORMER TS ERIKA...AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH STILL APPEARS WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS
MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LIFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING...APPEARS TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON SPECIFICS AND
TIMING...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO OR THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC LEADING TO INCREASING
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND POPS...AND TREND TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS.
WILL MAINTAIN BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT...ALONG WITH A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO AN
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER DAY. HOWEVER...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY
THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN MVFR VSBYS AT AGS AND EXPECT
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT AGS AND EVENTUALLY LATER AT OGB. HRRR CEILING
FORECAST INDICATES SOME POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS MOVING INTO OGB AROUND
10-11Z BUT NO OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND LACK OF
UPPER FORCING SUGGESTS CONVECTION PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND WILL
NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 020549
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
149 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS FLORIDA...
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS. INDICATIONS
OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT HIGH CLOUDINESS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG SHOULD OCCUR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY...CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA MOVING NORTHEAST...AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...ALONG COASTAL
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR FA.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR
FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT CHANCE
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK. TEMPERATURES WARMING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS INTO THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z GFS SIMILAR WITH 00Z ECMWF WITH SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES/CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS DEVELOPING
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST BY MONDAY BUT ECMWF
WEAKER AND MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES. TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT...ALONG WITH A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO AN
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER DAY. HOWEVER...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY
THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN MVFR VSBYS AT AGS AND EXPECT
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT AGS AND EVENTUALLY LATER AT OGB. HRRR CEILING
FORECAST INDICATES SOME POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS MOVING INTO OGB AROUND
10-11Z BUT NO OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND LACK OF
UPPER FORCING SUGGESTS CONVECTION PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND WILL
NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 020549
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
149 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS FLORIDA...
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS. INDICATIONS
OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT HIGH CLOUDINESS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG SHOULD OCCUR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY...CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA MOVING NORTHEAST...AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...ALONG COASTAL
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR FA.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR
FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT CHANCE
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK. TEMPERATURES WARMING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS INTO THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z GFS SIMILAR WITH 00Z ECMWF WITH SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES/CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS DEVELOPING
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST BY MONDAY BUT ECMWF
WEAKER AND MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES. TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT...ALONG WITH A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO AN
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER DAY. HOWEVER...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY
THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN MVFR VSBYS AT AGS AND EXPECT
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT AGS AND EVENTUALLY LATER AT OGB. HRRR CEILING
FORECAST INDICATES SOME POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS MOVING INTO OGB AROUND
10-11Z BUT NO OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND LACK OF
UPPER FORCING SUGGESTS CONVECTION PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND WILL
NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 020549
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
149 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS FLORIDA...
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS. INDICATIONS
OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT HIGH CLOUDINESS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG SHOULD OCCUR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY...CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA MOVING NORTHEAST...AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...ALONG COASTAL
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR FA.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR
FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT CHANCE
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK. TEMPERATURES WARMING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS INTO THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z GFS SIMILAR WITH 00Z ECMWF WITH SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES/CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS DEVELOPING
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST BY MONDAY BUT ECMWF
WEAKER AND MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES. TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT...ALONG WITH A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO AN
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER DAY. HOWEVER...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY
THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN MVFR VSBYS AT AGS AND EXPECT
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT AGS AND EVENTUALLY LATER AT OGB. HRRR CEILING
FORECAST INDICATES SOME POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS MOVING INTO OGB AROUND
10-11Z BUT NO OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND LACK OF
UPPER FORCING SUGGESTS CONVECTION PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND WILL
NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 020549
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
149 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS FLORIDA...
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS. INDICATIONS
OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT HIGH CLOUDINESS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG SHOULD OCCUR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY...CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA MOVING NORTHEAST...AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...ALONG COASTAL
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR FA.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR
FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT CHANCE
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK. TEMPERATURES WARMING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS INTO THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z GFS SIMILAR WITH 00Z ECMWF WITH SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES/CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS DEVELOPING
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST BY MONDAY BUT ECMWF
WEAKER AND MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES. TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT...ALONG WITH A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO AN
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER DAY. HOWEVER...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY
THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN MVFR VSBYS AT AGS AND EXPECT
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT AGS AND EVENTUALLY LATER AT OGB. HRRR CEILING
FORECAST INDICATES SOME POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS MOVING INTO OGB AROUND
10-11Z BUT NO OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND LACK OF
UPPER FORCING SUGGESTS CONVECTION PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND WILL
NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 020549
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
149 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS FLORIDA...
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS. INDICATIONS
OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT HIGH CLOUDINESS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG SHOULD OCCUR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY...CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA MOVING NORTHEAST...AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...ALONG COASTAL
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR FA.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR
FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT CHANCE
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK. TEMPERATURES WARMING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS INTO THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z GFS SIMILAR WITH 00Z ECMWF WITH SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES/CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS DEVELOPING
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST BY MONDAY BUT ECMWF
WEAKER AND MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES. TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT...ALONG WITH A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO AN
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER DAY. HOWEVER...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY
THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN MVFR VSBYS AT AGS AND EXPECT
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT AGS AND EVENTUALLY LATER AT OGB. HRRR CEILING
FORECAST INDICATES SOME POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS MOVING INTO OGB AROUND
10-11Z BUT NO OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND LACK OF
UPPER FORCING SUGGESTS CONVECTION PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND WILL
NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCHS 020538
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
138 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE FL PANHANDLE. THE LOW WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE NORTHWARD PROGRESS
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON...THOUGH FORCING FOR PRECIP OVER LAND IS QUITE LIMITED.
LOWERED POPS A BIT ALONG THE ALTAMAHA INITIALLY...KEEPING LOWER
CHANCES LATE. LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 70S MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXTENDING FROM A UPPER ANTICYCLONE
POSITIONED NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY AS
TROUGHING FROM THE WEST PUSHES IN. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS A SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH
ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THE PATTERN IS RATHER BENIGN WITH NO PROMINENT FEATURES TO
SPEAK OF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY COVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A LARGER AND BETTER DEFINED HIGH STARTING TO BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME PERIOD DISPLAY A GOOD DEAL OF INCONSISTENCY REGARDING THE
COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL
CONSENSUS IS TO FAVOR THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. THEN
BY FRIDAY CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH BEING INTRODUCED ALOFT. POPS ARE ALONG
THE SAME LINES AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SUCH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR KSAV LATE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST GA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW FAVORING
A MAINLY SSE TO SSW COMPONENT UNTIL ROUGHLY 10Z WHEN A LAND BREEZE
BEGINS TO TAKE OVER WITH PRIMARILY W TO NW FLOW FIRMLY INGRAINED
BY DAYBREAK AS THE LAND BREEZE WINDS DOWN. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK A
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS...WITH SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS ALONG
THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. DURING THIS
TIME...SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. THEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE TIGHTER NORTHEAST GRADIENT AND SEAS WILL TICK UPWARD
AS WELL.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 020538
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
138 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE FL PANHANDLE. THE LOW WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE NORTHWARD PROGRESS
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON...THOUGH FORCING FOR PRECIP OVER LAND IS QUITE LIMITED.
LOWERED POPS A BIT ALONG THE ALTAMAHA INITIALLY...KEEPING LOWER
CHANCES LATE. LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 70S MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXTENDING FROM A UPPER ANTICYCLONE
POSITIONED NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY AS
TROUGHING FROM THE WEST PUSHES IN. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS A SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH
ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THE PATTERN IS RATHER BENIGN WITH NO PROMINENT FEATURES TO
SPEAK OF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY COVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A LARGER AND BETTER DEFINED HIGH STARTING TO BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME PERIOD DISPLAY A GOOD DEAL OF INCONSISTENCY REGARDING THE
COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL
CONSENSUS IS TO FAVOR THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. THEN
BY FRIDAY CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH BEING INTRODUCED ALOFT. POPS ARE ALONG
THE SAME LINES AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SUCH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR KSAV LATE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST GA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW FAVORING
A MAINLY SSE TO SSW COMPONENT UNTIL ROUGHLY 10Z WHEN A LAND BREEZE
BEGINS TO TAKE OVER WITH PRIMARILY W TO NW FLOW FIRMLY INGRAINED
BY DAYBREAK AS THE LAND BREEZE WINDS DOWN. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK A
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS...WITH SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS ALONG
THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. DURING THIS
TIME...SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. THEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE TIGHTER NORTHEAST GRADIENT AND SEAS WILL TICK UPWARD
AS WELL.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KFFC 020505 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
105 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

UPDATE...
AS WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO LOSE INFLUENCE AND A WEAK GULF LOW WITH
ENHANCED MOISTURE CREEPS NORTHWARD FROM NORTH FL...THERE SHOULD
BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ADVECTING INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA. ANY PRECIP CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS. SOME PROGGED DEWPT DEPRESSIONS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH CALM WINDS SUGGEST POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG SLIGHTLY
BEFORE SUNRISE SO HAVE INCLUDED IN WEATHER ELEMENTS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
GA AND FLORIDA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS JUST OFF THE GULF
COAST OF FL. WE CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP IN OUR CWA BUT
MOISTURE IS INCREASING SO WILL BE INCREASING POPS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY. MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED
JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL AND IS STILL HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIP TO A MINIMUM AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS STILL A
DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING. THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS ALSO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND IS KIND OF SETTING UP LIKE A WEAK
WEDGE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALL DAY ACROSS
THE STATE ARE CLASSIC SIGNS OF A WEDGE. HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND 70S.

01

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TSTMS ON THU AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE
IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL

BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LINGER INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE HELD
DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF MVFR FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING TIL 13Z. SCT-BKN 3500-6000 FT CU EXPECTED
WITH VARYING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS
CALM OVERNIGHT BECOMING VARIABLE OR NW AROUND 5 KTS DURING THE
DAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ANY CEILINGS AND WIND DIRECTION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  71  91  71 /  10  10  20  10
ATLANTA         90  73  90  72 /  10  10  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     85  65  85  64 /  30  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    90  69  90  69 /  10  10  20  10
COLUMBUS        91  73  92  74 /  20  10  20  10
GAINESVILLE     89  71  89  71 /  10  10  20  20
MACON           91  72  91  72 /  20  10  20  10
ROME            90  69  90  69 /  10  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  90  70  90  70 /  10  10  20  10
VIDALIA         91  73  93  73 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BDL



000
FXUS62 KFFC 020505 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
105 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

UPDATE...
AS WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO LOSE INFLUENCE AND A WEAK GULF LOW WITH
ENHANCED MOISTURE CREEPS NORTHWARD FROM NORTH FL...THERE SHOULD
BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ADVECTING INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA. ANY PRECIP CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS. SOME PROGGED DEWPT DEPRESSIONS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH CALM WINDS SUGGEST POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG SLIGHTLY
BEFORE SUNRISE SO HAVE INCLUDED IN WEATHER ELEMENTS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
GA AND FLORIDA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS JUST OFF THE GULF
COAST OF FL. WE CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP IN OUR CWA BUT
MOISTURE IS INCREASING SO WILL BE INCREASING POPS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY. MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED
JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL AND IS STILL HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIP TO A MINIMUM AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS STILL A
DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING. THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS ALSO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND IS KIND OF SETTING UP LIKE A WEAK
WEDGE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALL DAY ACROSS
THE STATE ARE CLASSIC SIGNS OF A WEDGE. HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND 70S.

01

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TSTMS ON THU AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE
IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL

BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LINGER INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE HELD
DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF MVFR FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING TIL 13Z. SCT-BKN 3500-6000 FT CU EXPECTED
WITH VARYING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS
CALM OVERNIGHT BECOMING VARIABLE OR NW AROUND 5 KTS DURING THE
DAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ANY CEILINGS AND WIND DIRECTION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  71  91  71 /  10  10  20  10
ATLANTA         90  73  90  72 /  10  10  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     85  65  85  64 /  30  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    90  69  90  69 /  10  10  20  10
COLUMBUS        91  73  92  74 /  20  10  20  10
GAINESVILLE     89  71  89  71 /  10  10  20  20
MACON           91  72  91  72 /  20  10  20  10
ROME            90  69  90  69 /  10  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  90  70  90  70 /  10  10  20  10
VIDALIA         91  73  93  73 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BDL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 020505 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
105 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

UPDATE...
AS WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO LOSE INFLUENCE AND A WEAK GULF LOW WITH
ENHANCED MOISTURE CREEPS NORTHWARD FROM NORTH FL...THERE SHOULD
BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ADVECTING INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA. ANY PRECIP CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS. SOME PROGGED DEWPT DEPRESSIONS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH CALM WINDS SUGGEST POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG SLIGHTLY
BEFORE SUNRISE SO HAVE INCLUDED IN WEATHER ELEMENTS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
GA AND FLORIDA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS JUST OFF THE GULF
COAST OF FL. WE CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP IN OUR CWA BUT
MOISTURE IS INCREASING SO WILL BE INCREASING POPS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY. MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED
JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL AND IS STILL HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIP TO A MINIMUM AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS STILL A
DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING. THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS ALSO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND IS KIND OF SETTING UP LIKE A WEAK
WEDGE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALL DAY ACROSS
THE STATE ARE CLASSIC SIGNS OF A WEDGE. HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND 70S.

01

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TSTMS ON THU AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE
IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL

BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LINGER INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE HELD
DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF MVFR FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING TIL 13Z. SCT-BKN 3500-6000 FT CU EXPECTED
WITH VARYING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS
CALM OVERNIGHT BECOMING VARIABLE OR NW AROUND 5 KTS DURING THE
DAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ANY CEILINGS AND WIND DIRECTION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  71  91  71 /  10  10  20  10
ATLANTA         90  73  90  72 /  10  10  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     85  65  85  64 /  30  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    90  69  90  69 /  10  10  20  10
COLUMBUS        91  73  92  74 /  20  10  20  10
GAINESVILLE     89  71  89  71 /  10  10  20  20
MACON           91  72  91  72 /  20  10  20  10
ROME            90  69  90  69 /  10  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  90  70  90  70 /  10  10  20  10
VIDALIA         91  73  93  73 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BDL



000
FXUS62 KFFC 020505 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
105 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

UPDATE...
AS WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO LOSE INFLUENCE AND A WEAK GULF LOW WITH
ENHANCED MOISTURE CREEPS NORTHWARD FROM NORTH FL...THERE SHOULD
BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ADVECTING INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA. ANY PRECIP CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS. SOME PROGGED DEWPT DEPRESSIONS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH CALM WINDS SUGGEST POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG SLIGHTLY
BEFORE SUNRISE SO HAVE INCLUDED IN WEATHER ELEMENTS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
GA AND FLORIDA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS JUST OFF THE GULF
COAST OF FL. WE CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP IN OUR CWA BUT
MOISTURE IS INCREASING SO WILL BE INCREASING POPS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY. MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED
JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL AND IS STILL HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIP TO A MINIMUM AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS STILL A
DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING. THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS ALSO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND IS KIND OF SETTING UP LIKE A WEAK
WEDGE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALL DAY ACROSS
THE STATE ARE CLASSIC SIGNS OF A WEDGE. HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND 70S.

01

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TSTMS ON THU AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE
IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL

BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LINGER INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE HELD
DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF MVFR FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING TIL 13Z. SCT-BKN 3500-6000 FT CU EXPECTED
WITH VARYING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS
CALM OVERNIGHT BECOMING VARIABLE OR NW AROUND 5 KTS DURING THE
DAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ANY CEILINGS AND WIND DIRECTION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  71  91  71 /  10  10  20  10
ATLANTA         90  73  90  72 /  10  10  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     85  65  85  64 /  30  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    90  69  90  69 /  10  10  20  10
COLUMBUS        91  73  92  74 /  20  10  20  10
GAINESVILLE     89  71  89  71 /  10  10  20  20
MACON           91  72  91  72 /  20  10  20  10
ROME            90  69  90  69 /  10  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  90  70  90  70 /  10  10  20  10
VIDALIA         91  73  93  73 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BDL




000
FXUS62 KCAE 020152
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
952 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS FLORIDA...
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS. INDICATIONS
OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT HIGH CLOUDINESS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG SHOULD OCCUR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY...CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA MOVING NORTHEAST...AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...ALONG COASTAL
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR FA.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR
FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT CHANCE
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK. TEMPERATURES WARMING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS INTO THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z GFS SIMILAR WITH 00Z ECMWF WITH SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES/CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS DEVELOPING
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST BY MONDAY BUT ECMWF
WEAKER AND MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES. TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A RELATIVE DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB FROM ABOUT 09Z THROUGH 14Z.
BEYOND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 020152
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
952 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS FLORIDA...
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS. INDICATIONS
OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT HIGH CLOUDINESS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG SHOULD OCCUR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY...CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA MOVING NORTHEAST...AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...ALONG COASTAL
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR FA.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR
FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT CHANCE
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK. TEMPERATURES WARMING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS INTO THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z GFS SIMILAR WITH 00Z ECMWF WITH SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES/CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS DEVELOPING
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST BY MONDAY BUT ECMWF
WEAKER AND MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES. TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A RELATIVE DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB FROM ABOUT 09Z THROUGH 14Z.
BEYOND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KFFC 020151
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
951 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
AS WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO LOSE INFLUENCE AND A WEAK GULF LOW WITH
ENHANCED MOISTURE CREEPS NORTHWARD FROM NORTH FL...THERE SHOULD
BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ADVECTING INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA. ANY PRECIP CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO TEMP/DWPT TRENDS. SOME PROGGED DWPT DEPRESSIONS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH CALM WINDS SUGGEST POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG SLIGHTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE SO HAVE INCLUDED IN WEATHER ELEMENTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
GA AND FLORIDA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS JUST OFF THE GULF
COAST OF FL. WE CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP IN OUR CWA BUT
MOISTURE IS INCREASING SO WILL BE INCREASING POPS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY. MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED
JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL AND IS STILL HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIP TO A MINIMUM AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS STILL A
DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING. THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS ALSO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND IS KIND OF SETTING UP LIKE A WEAK
WEDGE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALL DAY ACROSS
THE STATE ARE CLASSIC SIGNS OF A WEDGE. HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND 70S.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TSTMS ON THU AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE
IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL

BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LINGER INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE HELD
DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM TO
LIGHT AND VRB CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A BIT GREATER MOISTURE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY BUT GENERALLY SCT TO BKN CU
FIELD IN 3500-4500 FT RANGE. AFTER 15Z WINDS LIGHT NW FOR NEAR
KATL AND COULD BE VRB ELSEWHERE. PRECIP CHANCES STAY TOO LOW AND
FAR SOUTH TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WINDS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  71  91 /   5  10  10  20
ATLANTA         72  90  73  90 /   5  10  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  65  85 /  20  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  90  69  90 /   5  10  10  20
COLUMBUS        73  91  73  92 /   5  20  10  20
GAINESVILLE     70  89  71  89 /   5  10  10  20
MACON           71  91  72  91 /   5  20  10  20
ROME            68  90  69  90 /   5  10  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  69  90  70  90 /   5  10  10  20
VIDALIA         73  91  73  93 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01/BAKER
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS62 KFFC 020151
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
951 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
AS WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO LOSE INFLUENCE AND A WEAK GULF LOW WITH
ENHANCED MOISTURE CREEPS NORTHWARD FROM NORTH FL...THERE SHOULD
BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ADVECTING INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA. ANY PRECIP CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO TEMP/DWPT TRENDS. SOME PROGGED DWPT DEPRESSIONS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH CALM WINDS SUGGEST POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG SLIGHTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE SO HAVE INCLUDED IN WEATHER ELEMENTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
GA AND FLORIDA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS JUST OFF THE GULF
COAST OF FL. WE CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP IN OUR CWA BUT
MOISTURE IS INCREASING SO WILL BE INCREASING POPS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY. MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED
JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL AND IS STILL HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIP TO A MINIMUM AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS STILL A
DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING. THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS ALSO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND IS KIND OF SETTING UP LIKE A WEAK
WEDGE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALL DAY ACROSS
THE STATE ARE CLASSIC SIGNS OF A WEDGE. HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND 70S.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TSTMS ON THU AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE
IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL

BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LINGER INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE HELD
DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM TO
LIGHT AND VRB CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A BIT GREATER MOISTURE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY BUT GENERALLY SCT TO BKN CU
FIELD IN 3500-4500 FT RANGE. AFTER 15Z WINDS LIGHT NW FOR NEAR
KATL AND COULD BE VRB ELSEWHERE. PRECIP CHANCES STAY TOO LOW AND
FAR SOUTH TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WINDS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  71  91 /   5  10  10  20
ATLANTA         72  90  73  90 /   5  10  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  65  85 /  20  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  90  69  90 /   5  10  10  20
COLUMBUS        73  91  73  92 /   5  20  10  20
GAINESVILLE     70  89  71  89 /   5  10  10  20
MACON           71  91  72  91 /   5  20  10  20
ROME            68  90  69  90 /   5  10  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  69  90  70  90 /   5  10  10  20
VIDALIA         73  91  73  93 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01/BAKER
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS62 KFFC 020151
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
951 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
AS WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO LOSE INFLUENCE AND A WEAK GULF LOW WITH
ENHANCED MOISTURE CREEPS NORTHWARD FROM NORTH FL...THERE SHOULD
BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ADVECTING INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA. ANY PRECIP CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO TEMP/DWPT TRENDS. SOME PROGGED DWPT DEPRESSIONS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH CALM WINDS SUGGEST POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG SLIGHTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE SO HAVE INCLUDED IN WEATHER ELEMENTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
GA AND FLORIDA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS JUST OFF THE GULF
COAST OF FL. WE CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP IN OUR CWA BUT
MOISTURE IS INCREASING SO WILL BE INCREASING POPS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY. MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED
JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL AND IS STILL HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIP TO A MINIMUM AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS STILL A
DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING. THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS ALSO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND IS KIND OF SETTING UP LIKE A WEAK
WEDGE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALL DAY ACROSS
THE STATE ARE CLASSIC SIGNS OF A WEDGE. HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND 70S.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TSTMS ON THU AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE
IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL

BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LINGER INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE HELD
DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM TO
LIGHT AND VRB CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A BIT GREATER MOISTURE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY BUT GENERALLY SCT TO BKN CU
FIELD IN 3500-4500 FT RANGE. AFTER 15Z WINDS LIGHT NW FOR NEAR
KATL AND COULD BE VRB ELSEWHERE. PRECIP CHANCES STAY TOO LOW AND
FAR SOUTH TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WINDS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  71  91 /   5  10  10  20
ATLANTA         72  90  73  90 /   5  10  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  65  85 /  20  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  90  69  90 /   5  10  10  20
COLUMBUS        73  91  73  92 /   5  20  10  20
GAINESVILLE     70  89  71  89 /   5  10  10  20
MACON           71  91  72  91 /   5  20  10  20
ROME            68  90  69  90 /   5  10  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  69  90  70  90 /   5  10  10  20
VIDALIA         73  91  73  93 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01/BAKER
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS62 KFFC 020151
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
951 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
AS WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO LOSE INFLUENCE AND A WEAK GULF LOW WITH
ENHANCED MOISTURE CREEPS NORTHWARD FROM NORTH FL...THERE SHOULD
BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ADVECTING INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA. ANY PRECIP CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO TEMP/DWPT TRENDS. SOME PROGGED DWPT DEPRESSIONS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH CALM WINDS SUGGEST POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG SLIGHTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE SO HAVE INCLUDED IN WEATHER ELEMENTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
GA AND FLORIDA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS JUST OFF THE GULF
COAST OF FL. WE CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP IN OUR CWA BUT
MOISTURE IS INCREASING SO WILL BE INCREASING POPS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY. MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED
JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL AND IS STILL HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIP TO A MINIMUM AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS STILL A
DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING. THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS ALSO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND IS KIND OF SETTING UP LIKE A WEAK
WEDGE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALL DAY ACROSS
THE STATE ARE CLASSIC SIGNS OF A WEDGE. HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND 70S.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TSTMS ON THU AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE
IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL

BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LINGER INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE HELD
DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM TO
LIGHT AND VRB CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A BIT GREATER MOISTURE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY BUT GENERALLY SCT TO BKN CU
FIELD IN 3500-4500 FT RANGE. AFTER 15Z WINDS LIGHT NW FOR NEAR
KATL AND COULD BE VRB ELSEWHERE. PRECIP CHANCES STAY TOO LOW AND
FAR SOUTH TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WINDS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  71  91 /   5  10  10  20
ATLANTA         72  90  73  90 /   5  10  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  65  85 /  20  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  90  69  90 /   5  10  10  20
COLUMBUS        73  91  73  92 /   5  20  10  20
GAINESVILLE     70  89  71  89 /   5  10  10  20
MACON           71  91  72  91 /   5  20  10  20
ROME            68  90  69  90 /   5  10  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  69  90  70  90 /   5  10  10  20
VIDALIA         73  91  73  93 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01/BAKER
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS62 KCHS 020106
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
906 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE FL PANHANDLE. THE LOW WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE NORTHWARD PROGRESS
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...THOUGH FORCING FOR PRECIP OVER LAND IS QUITE LIMITED. LOW
TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXTENDING FROM A UPPER ANTICYCLONE
POSITIONED NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY AS
TROUGHING FROM THE WEST PUSHES IN. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS A SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH
ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THE PATTERN IS RATHER BENIGN WITH NO PROMINENT FEATURES TO
SPEAK OF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY COVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A LARGER AND BETTER DEFINED HIGH STARTING TO BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME PERIOD DISPLAY A GOOD DEAL OF INCONSISTENCY REGARDING THE
COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL
CONSENSUS IS TO FAVOR THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. THEN
BY FRIDAY CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH BEING INTRODUCED ALOFT. POPS ARE ALONG
THE SAME LINES AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SUCH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR KSAV LATE WED
AFTERNOON DUE TO MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST GA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA. ADDED VICINITY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW FAVORING
A MAINLY SSE TO SSW COMPONENT UNTIL ROUGHLY 10Z WHEN A LAND BREEZE
BEGINS TO TAKE OVER WITH PRIMARILY W TO NW FLOW FIRMLY INGRAINED
BY 11Z. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK A
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS...WITH SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS ALONG
THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. DURING THIS
TIME...SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. THEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE TIGHTER NORTHEAST GRADIENT AND SEAS WILL TICK UPWARD
AS WELL.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...BSH/JMC



000
FXUS62 KCHS 020106
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
906 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE FL PANHANDLE. THE LOW WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE NORTHWARD PROGRESS
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...THOUGH FORCING FOR PRECIP OVER LAND IS QUITE LIMITED. LOW
TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXTENDING FROM A UPPER ANTICYCLONE
POSITIONED NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY AS
TROUGHING FROM THE WEST PUSHES IN. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS A SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH
ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THE PATTERN IS RATHER BENIGN WITH NO PROMINENT FEATURES TO
SPEAK OF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY COVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A LARGER AND BETTER DEFINED HIGH STARTING TO BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME PERIOD DISPLAY A GOOD DEAL OF INCONSISTENCY REGARDING THE
COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL
CONSENSUS IS TO FAVOR THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. THEN
BY FRIDAY CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH BEING INTRODUCED ALOFT. POPS ARE ALONG
THE SAME LINES AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SUCH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR KSAV LATE WED
AFTERNOON DUE TO MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST GA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA. ADDED VICINITY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW FAVORING
A MAINLY SSE TO SSW COMPONENT UNTIL ROUGHLY 10Z WHEN A LAND BREEZE
BEGINS TO TAKE OVER WITH PRIMARILY W TO NW FLOW FIRMLY INGRAINED
BY 11Z. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK A
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS...WITH SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS ALONG
THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. DURING THIS
TIME...SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. THEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE TIGHTER NORTHEAST GRADIENT AND SEAS WILL TICK UPWARD
AS WELL.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...BSH/JMC




000
FXUS62 KCHS 020106
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
906 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE FL PANHANDLE. THE LOW WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE NORTHWARD PROGRESS
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...THOUGH FORCING FOR PRECIP OVER LAND IS QUITE LIMITED. LOW
TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXTENDING FROM A UPPER ANTICYCLONE
POSITIONED NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY AS
TROUGHING FROM THE WEST PUSHES IN. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS A SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH
ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THE PATTERN IS RATHER BENIGN WITH NO PROMINENT FEATURES TO
SPEAK OF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY COVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A LARGER AND BETTER DEFINED HIGH STARTING TO BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME PERIOD DISPLAY A GOOD DEAL OF INCONSISTENCY REGARDING THE
COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL
CONSENSUS IS TO FAVOR THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. THEN
BY FRIDAY CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH BEING INTRODUCED ALOFT. POPS ARE ALONG
THE SAME LINES AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SUCH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR KSAV LATE WED
AFTERNOON DUE TO MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST GA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA. ADDED VICINITY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW FAVORING
A MAINLY SSE TO SSW COMPONENT UNTIL ROUGHLY 10Z WHEN A LAND BREEZE
BEGINS TO TAKE OVER WITH PRIMARILY W TO NW FLOW FIRMLY INGRAINED
BY 11Z. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK A
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS...WITH SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS ALONG
THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. DURING THIS
TIME...SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. THEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE TIGHTER NORTHEAST GRADIENT AND SEAS WILL TICK UPWARD
AS WELL.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...BSH/JMC



000
FXUS62 KCHS 020106
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
906 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE FL PANHANDLE. THE LOW WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE NORTHWARD PROGRESS
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...THOUGH FORCING FOR PRECIP OVER LAND IS QUITE LIMITED. LOW
TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXTENDING FROM A UPPER ANTICYCLONE
POSITIONED NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY AS
TROUGHING FROM THE WEST PUSHES IN. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS A SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH
ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THE PATTERN IS RATHER BENIGN WITH NO PROMINENT FEATURES TO
SPEAK OF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY COVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A LARGER AND BETTER DEFINED HIGH STARTING TO BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME PERIOD DISPLAY A GOOD DEAL OF INCONSISTENCY REGARDING THE
COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL
CONSENSUS IS TO FAVOR THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. THEN
BY FRIDAY CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH BEING INTRODUCED ALOFT. POPS ARE ALONG
THE SAME LINES AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SUCH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR KSAV LATE WED
AFTERNOON DUE TO MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST GA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA. ADDED VICINITY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW FAVORING
A MAINLY SSE TO SSW COMPONENT UNTIL ROUGHLY 10Z WHEN A LAND BREEZE
BEGINS TO TAKE OVER WITH PRIMARILY W TO NW FLOW FIRMLY INGRAINED
BY 11Z. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK A
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS...WITH SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS ALONG
THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. DURING THIS
TIME...SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. THEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE TIGHTER NORTHEAST GRADIENT AND SEAS WILL TICK UPWARD
AS WELL.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...BSH/JMC



000
FXUS62 KCHS 020106
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
906 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE FL PANHANDLE. THE LOW WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE NORTHWARD PROGRESS
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...THOUGH FORCING FOR PRECIP OVER LAND IS QUITE LIMITED. LOW
TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXTENDING FROM A UPPER ANTICYCLONE
POSITIONED NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY AS
TROUGHING FROM THE WEST PUSHES IN. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS A SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH
ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THE PATTERN IS RATHER BENIGN WITH NO PROMINENT FEATURES TO
SPEAK OF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY COVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A LARGER AND BETTER DEFINED HIGH STARTING TO BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME PERIOD DISPLAY A GOOD DEAL OF INCONSISTENCY REGARDING THE
COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL
CONSENSUS IS TO FAVOR THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. THEN
BY FRIDAY CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH BEING INTRODUCED ALOFT. POPS ARE ALONG
THE SAME LINES AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SUCH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR KSAV LATE WED
AFTERNOON DUE TO MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST GA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA. ADDED VICINITY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW FAVORING
A MAINLY SSE TO SSW COMPONENT UNTIL ROUGHLY 10Z WHEN A LAND BREEZE
BEGINS TO TAKE OVER WITH PRIMARILY W TO NW FLOW FIRMLY INGRAINED
BY 11Z. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK A
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS...WITH SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS ALONG
THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. DURING THIS
TIME...SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. THEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE TIGHTER NORTHEAST GRADIENT AND SEAS WILL TICK UPWARD
AS WELL.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...BSH/JMC



000
FXUS62 KCHS 020106
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
906 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE FL PANHANDLE. THE LOW WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE NORTHWARD PROGRESS
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...THOUGH FORCING FOR PRECIP OVER LAND IS QUITE LIMITED. LOW
TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXTENDING FROM A UPPER ANTICYCLONE
POSITIONED NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY AS
TROUGHING FROM THE WEST PUSHES IN. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS A SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH
ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THE PATTERN IS RATHER BENIGN WITH NO PROMINENT FEATURES TO
SPEAK OF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY COVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A LARGER AND BETTER DEFINED HIGH STARTING TO BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME PERIOD DISPLAY A GOOD DEAL OF INCONSISTENCY REGARDING THE
COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL
CONSENSUS IS TO FAVOR THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. THEN
BY FRIDAY CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH BEING INTRODUCED ALOFT. POPS ARE ALONG
THE SAME LINES AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SUCH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR KSAV LATE WED
AFTERNOON DUE TO MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST GA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA. ADDED VICINITY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW FAVORING
A MAINLY SSE TO SSW COMPONENT UNTIL ROUGHLY 10Z WHEN A LAND BREEZE
BEGINS TO TAKE OVER WITH PRIMARILY W TO NW FLOW FIRMLY INGRAINED
BY 11Z. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK A
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS...WITH SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS ALONG
THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. DURING THIS
TIME...SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. THEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE TIGHTER NORTHEAST GRADIENT AND SEAS WILL TICK UPWARD
AS WELL.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...BSH/JMC



000
FXUS62 KFFC 020014
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
814 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
GA AND FLORIDA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS JUST OFF THE GULF
COAST OF FL. WE CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP IN OUR CWA BUT
MOISTURE IS INCREASING SO WILL BE INCREASING POPS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY. MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED
JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL AND IS STILL HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIP TO A MINIMUM AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS STILL A
DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING. THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS ALSO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND IS KIND OF SETTING UP LIKE A WEAK
WEDGE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALL DAY ACROSS
THE STATE ARE CLASSIC SIGNS OF A WEDGE. HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND 70S.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TSTMS ON THU AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE
IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL

BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LINGER INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE HELD
DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM TO
LIGHT AND VRB CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A BIT GREATER MOISTURE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY BUT GENERALLY SCT TO BKN CU
FIELD IN 3500-4500 FT RANGE. AFTER 15Z WINDS LIGHT NW FOR NEAR
KATL AND COULD BE VRB ELSEWHERE. PRECIP CHANCES STAY TOO LOW AND
FAR SOUTH TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WINDS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  71  91 /   5  10  10  20
ATLANTA         72  90  73  90 /   5  10  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  65  85 /  20  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  90  69  90 /   5  10  10  20
COLUMBUS        73  91  73  92 /   5  20  10  20
GAINESVILLE     70  89  71  89 /   5  10  10  20
MACON           71  91  72  91 /   5  20  10  20
ROME            68  90  69  90 /   5  10  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  69  90  70  90 /   5  10  10  20
VIDALIA         73  91  73  93 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS62 KFFC 020014
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
814 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
GA AND FLORIDA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS JUST OFF THE GULF
COAST OF FL. WE CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP IN OUR CWA BUT
MOISTURE IS INCREASING SO WILL BE INCREASING POPS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY. MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED
JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL AND IS STILL HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIP TO A MINIMUM AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS STILL A
DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING. THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS ALSO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND IS KIND OF SETTING UP LIKE A WEAK
WEDGE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALL DAY ACROSS
THE STATE ARE CLASSIC SIGNS OF A WEDGE. HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND 70S.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TSTMS ON THU AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE
IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL

BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LINGER INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE HELD
DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM TO
LIGHT AND VRB CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A BIT GREATER MOISTURE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY BUT GENERALLY SCT TO BKN CU
FIELD IN 3500-4500 FT RANGE. AFTER 15Z WINDS LIGHT NW FOR NEAR
KATL AND COULD BE VRB ELSEWHERE. PRECIP CHANCES STAY TOO LOW AND
FAR SOUTH TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WINDS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  71  91 /   5  10  10  20
ATLANTA         72  90  73  90 /   5  10  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  65  85 /  20  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  90  69  90 /   5  10  10  20
COLUMBUS        73  91  73  92 /   5  20  10  20
GAINESVILLE     70  89  71  89 /   5  10  10  20
MACON           71  91  72  91 /   5  20  10  20
ROME            68  90  69  90 /   5  10  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  69  90  70  90 /   5  10  10  20
VIDALIA         73  91  73  93 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS62 KFFC 020014
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
814 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
GA AND FLORIDA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS JUST OFF THE GULF
COAST OF FL. WE CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP IN OUR CWA BUT
MOISTURE IS INCREASING SO WILL BE INCREASING POPS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY. MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED
JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL AND IS STILL HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIP TO A MINIMUM AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS STILL A
DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING. THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS ALSO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND IS KIND OF SETTING UP LIKE A WEAK
WEDGE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALL DAY ACROSS
THE STATE ARE CLASSIC SIGNS OF A WEDGE. HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND 70S.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TSTMS ON THU AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE
IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL

BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LINGER INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE HELD
DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM TO
LIGHT AND VRB CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A BIT GREATER MOISTURE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY BUT GENERALLY SCT TO BKN CU
FIELD IN 3500-4500 FT RANGE. AFTER 15Z WINDS LIGHT NW FOR NEAR
KATL AND COULD BE VRB ELSEWHERE. PRECIP CHANCES STAY TOO LOW AND
FAR SOUTH TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WINDS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  71  91 /   5  10  10  20
ATLANTA         72  90  73  90 /   5  10  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  65  85 /  20  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  90  69  90 /   5  10  10  20
COLUMBUS        73  91  73  92 /   5  20  10  20
GAINESVILLE     70  89  71  89 /   5  10  10  20
MACON           71  91  72  91 /   5  20  10  20
ROME            68  90  69  90 /   5  10  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  69  90  70  90 /   5  10  10  20
VIDALIA         73  91  73  93 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS62 KFFC 020014
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
814 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
GA AND FLORIDA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS JUST OFF THE GULF
COAST OF FL. WE CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP IN OUR CWA BUT
MOISTURE IS INCREASING SO WILL BE INCREASING POPS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY. MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED
JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL AND IS STILL HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIP TO A MINIMUM AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS STILL A
DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING. THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS ALSO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND IS KIND OF SETTING UP LIKE A WEAK
WEDGE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALL DAY ACROSS
THE STATE ARE CLASSIC SIGNS OF A WEDGE. HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND 70S.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TSTMS ON THU AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE
IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL

BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LINGER INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE HELD
DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM TO
LIGHT AND VRB CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A BIT GREATER MOISTURE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY BUT GENERALLY SCT TO BKN CU
FIELD IN 3500-4500 FT RANGE. AFTER 15Z WINDS LIGHT NW FOR NEAR
KATL AND COULD BE VRB ELSEWHERE. PRECIP CHANCES STAY TOO LOW AND
FAR SOUTH TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WINDS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  71  91 /   5  10  10  20
ATLANTA         72  90  73  90 /   5  10  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  65  85 /  20  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  90  69  90 /   5  10  10  20
COLUMBUS        73  91  73  92 /   5  20  10  20
GAINESVILLE     70  89  71  89 /   5  10  10  20
MACON           71  91  72  91 /   5  20  10  20
ROME            68  90  69  90 /   5  10  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  69  90  70  90 /   5  10  10  20
VIDALIA         73  91  73  93 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS62 KCAE 012330
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
730 PM EDT TUE SEP  1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS. INDICATIONS
OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY...CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA MOVING NORTHEAST...AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...ALONG COASTAL
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR FA.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR
FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT CHANCE
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK. TEMPERATURES WARMING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS INTO THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z GFS SIMILAR WITH 00Z ECMWF WITH SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES/CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS DEVELOPING
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST BY MONDAY BUT ECMWF
WEAKER AND MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES. TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A RELATIVE DRY ARMS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB FROM ABOUT 09Z THROUGH 14Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEYOND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE
CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AGAIN
EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 012251
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS. INDICATIONS
OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY...CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA MOVING NORTHEAST...AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...ALONG COASTAL
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR FA.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR
FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT CHANCE
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK. TEMPERATURES WARMING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS INTO THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z GFS SIMILAR WITH 00Z ECMWF WITH SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES/CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS DEVELOPING
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST BY MONDAY BUT ECMWF
WEAKER AND MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES. TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A RELATIVE DRY ARMS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB FROM ABOUT 09Z THROUGH 14Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY
16Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 012251
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS. INDICATIONS
OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY...CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA MOVING NORTHEAST...AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...ALONG COASTAL
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR FA.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR
FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT CHANCE
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK. TEMPERATURES WARMING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS INTO THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z GFS SIMILAR WITH 00Z ECMWF WITH SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES/CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS DEVELOPING
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST BY MONDAY BUT ECMWF
WEAKER AND MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES. TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A RELATIVE DRY ARMS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB FROM ABOUT 09Z THROUGH 14Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY
16Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 012251
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS. INDICATIONS
OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY...CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA MOVING NORTHEAST...AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...ALONG COASTAL
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR FA.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR
FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT CHANCE
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK. TEMPERATURES WARMING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS INTO THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z GFS SIMILAR WITH 00Z ECMWF WITH SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES/CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS DEVELOPING
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST BY MONDAY BUT ECMWF
WEAKER AND MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES. TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A RELATIVE DRY ARMS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB FROM ABOUT 09Z THROUGH 14Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY
16Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 012020
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
420 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FIRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SEABREEZE AND
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-16 AND EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
INSOLATION THIS EVENING. THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY THEN SWITCHES OVER
PRIMARILY TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY N LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SO GREATEST POPS REMAIN IN AN AREA ENCOMPASSING
PRIMARILY OUR SOUTHERNMOST LAND ZONES AND COASTAL WATERS. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOW 70S INLAND TO MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXTENDING FROM A UPPER ANTICYCLONE
POSITIONED NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY AS
TROUGHING FROM THE WEST PUSHES IN. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS A SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH
ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THE PATTERN IS RATHER BENIGN WITH NO PROMINENT FEATURES TO
SPEAK OF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY COVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A LARGER AND BETTER DEFINED HIGH STARTING TO BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME PERIOD DISPLAY A GOOD DEAL OF INCONSISTENCY REGARDING THE
COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL
CONSENSUS IS TO FAVOR THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. THEN
BY FRIDAY CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH BEING INTRODUCED ALOFT. POPS ARE ALONG
THE SAME LINES AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SUCH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
18Z WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...PARTICULARLY NEAR KSAV
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL DUE TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR DIRECT IMPACTS IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THERE ARE ONLY A FEW INDICATIONS
THAT OVERNIGHT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VSBYS
COULD OCCUR...AND THANKS TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS...MVFR CIGS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT
KSAV ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW FAVORING
A MAINLY SSE TO SSW COMPONENT UNTIL ROUGHLY 10Z WHEN A LAND BREEZE
BEGINS TO TAKE OVER WITH PRIMARILY W TO NW FLOW FIRMLY INGRAINED
BY 11Z. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK A
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS...WITH SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS ALONG
THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. DURING THIS
TIME...SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. THEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE TIGHTER NORTHEAST GRADIENT AND SEAS WILL TICK UPWARD
AS WELL.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/JMC
MARINE...BSH/JMC



000
FXUS62 KCHS 012020
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
420 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FIRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SEABREEZE AND
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-16 AND EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
INSOLATION THIS EVENING. THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY THEN SWITCHES OVER
PRIMARILY TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY N LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SO GREATEST POPS REMAIN IN AN AREA ENCOMPASSING
PRIMARILY OUR SOUTHERNMOST LAND ZONES AND COASTAL WATERS. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOW 70S INLAND TO MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXTENDING FROM A UPPER ANTICYCLONE
POSITIONED NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY AS
TROUGHING FROM THE WEST PUSHES IN. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS A SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH
ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THE PATTERN IS RATHER BENIGN WITH NO PROMINENT FEATURES TO
SPEAK OF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY COVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A LARGER AND BETTER DEFINED HIGH STARTING TO BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME PERIOD DISPLAY A GOOD DEAL OF INCONSISTENCY REGARDING THE
COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL
CONSENSUS IS TO FAVOR THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. THEN
BY FRIDAY CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH BEING INTRODUCED ALOFT. POPS ARE ALONG
THE SAME LINES AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SUCH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
18Z WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...PARTICULARLY NEAR KSAV
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL DUE TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR DIRECT IMPACTS IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THERE ARE ONLY A FEW INDICATIONS
THAT OVERNIGHT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VSBYS
COULD OCCUR...AND THANKS TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS...MVFR CIGS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT
KSAV ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW FAVORING
A MAINLY SSE TO SSW COMPONENT UNTIL ROUGHLY 10Z WHEN A LAND BREEZE
BEGINS TO TAKE OVER WITH PRIMARILY W TO NW FLOW FIRMLY INGRAINED
BY 11Z. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK A
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS...WITH SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS ALONG
THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. DURING THIS
TIME...SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. THEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE TIGHTER NORTHEAST GRADIENT AND SEAS WILL TICK UPWARD
AS WELL.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/JMC
MARINE...BSH/JMC




000
FXUS62 KFFC 011932
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
332 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
GA AND FLORIDA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS JUST OFF THE GULF
COAST OF FL. WE CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP IN OUR CWA BUT
MOISTURE IS INCREASING SO WILL BE INCREASING POPS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY. MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED
JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL AND IS STILL HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIP TO A MINIMUM AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS STILL A
DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING. THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS ALSO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND IS KIND OF SETTING UP LIKE A WEAK
WEDGE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALL DAY ACROSS
THE STATE ARE CLASSIC SIGNS OF A WEDGE. HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND 70S.

01

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TSTMS ON THU AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE
IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL
BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LINGER INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE HELD
DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

16

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NO
PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE THE
CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT
AND THE DIRECTION IS ALL OVER THE PLACE. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE ARE NE AND HAVE SEEN MAINLY E TO NE WINDS. WINDS SHOULD
STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT PICK UP A BIT BY
16-18Z WED OUT OF THE NW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  71  91 /   5  10  10  20
ATLANTA         72  90  73  90 /   5  10  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  65  85 /   5  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  90  69  90 /   5  10  10  20
COLUMBUS        73  91  73  92 /   5  20  10  20
GAINESVILLE     70  89  71  89 /   5  10  10  20
MACON           71  91  72  91 /   5  20  10  20
ROME            68  90  69  90 /   5  10  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  69  90  70  90 /   5  10  10  20
VIDALIA         73  91  73  93 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 011932
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
332 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
GA AND FLORIDA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS JUST OFF THE GULF
COAST OF FL. WE CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP IN OUR CWA BUT
MOISTURE IS INCREASING SO WILL BE INCREASING POPS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY. MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED
JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL AND IS STILL HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIP TO A MINIMUM AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS STILL A
DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING. THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS ALSO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND IS KIND OF SETTING UP LIKE A WEAK
WEDGE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALL DAY ACROSS
THE STATE ARE CLASSIC SIGNS OF A WEDGE. HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND 70S.

01

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TSTMS ON THU AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE
IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL
BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LINGER INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE HELD
DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

16

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NO
PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE THE
CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT
AND THE DIRECTION IS ALL OVER THE PLACE. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE ARE NE AND HAVE SEEN MAINLY E TO NE WINDS. WINDS SHOULD
STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT PICK UP A BIT BY
16-18Z WED OUT OF THE NW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  71  91 /   5  10  10  20
ATLANTA         72  90  73  90 /   5  10  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  65  85 /   5  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  90  69  90 /   5  10  10  20
COLUMBUS        73  91  73  92 /   5  20  10  20
GAINESVILLE     70  89  71  89 /   5  10  10  20
MACON           71  91  72  91 /   5  20  10  20
ROME            68  90  69  90 /   5  10  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  69  90  70  90 /   5  10  10  20
VIDALIA         73  91  73  93 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 011932
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
332 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
GA AND FLORIDA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS JUST OFF THE GULF
COAST OF FL. WE CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP IN OUR CWA BUT
MOISTURE IS INCREASING SO WILL BE INCREASING POPS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY. MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED
JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL AND IS STILL HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIP TO A MINIMUM AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS STILL A
DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING. THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS ALSO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND IS KIND OF SETTING UP LIKE A WEAK
WEDGE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALL DAY ACROSS
THE STATE ARE CLASSIC SIGNS OF A WEDGE. HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND 70S.

01

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TSTMS ON THU AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE
IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL
BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LINGER INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE HELD
DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

16

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NO
PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE THE
CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT
AND THE DIRECTION IS ALL OVER THE PLACE. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE ARE NE AND HAVE SEEN MAINLY E TO NE WINDS. WINDS SHOULD
STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT PICK UP A BIT BY
16-18Z WED OUT OF THE NW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  71  91 /   5  10  10  20
ATLANTA         72  90  73  90 /   5  10  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  65  85 /   5  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  90  69  90 /   5  10  10  20
COLUMBUS        73  91  73  92 /   5  20  10  20
GAINESVILLE     70  89  71  89 /   5  10  10  20
MACON           71  91  72  91 /   5  20  10  20
ROME            68  90  69  90 /   5  10  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  69  90  70  90 /   5  10  10  20
VIDALIA         73  91  73  93 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 011932
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
332 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
GA AND FLORIDA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS JUST OFF THE GULF
COAST OF FL. WE CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP IN OUR CWA BUT
MOISTURE IS INCREASING SO WILL BE INCREASING POPS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY. MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED
JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL AND IS STILL HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIP TO A MINIMUM AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS STILL A
DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING. THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS ALSO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND IS KIND OF SETTING UP LIKE A WEAK
WEDGE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALL DAY ACROSS
THE STATE ARE CLASSIC SIGNS OF A WEDGE. HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND 70S.

01

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TSTMS ON THU AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE
IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL
BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LINGER INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE HELD
DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

16

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NO
PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE THE
CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT
AND THE DIRECTION IS ALL OVER THE PLACE. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE ARE NE AND HAVE SEEN MAINLY E TO NE WINDS. WINDS SHOULD
STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT PICK UP A BIT BY
16-18Z WED OUT OF THE NW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  71  91 /   5  10  10  20
ATLANTA         72  90  73  90 /   5  10  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  65  85 /   5  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  90  69  90 /   5  10  10  20
COLUMBUS        73  91  73  92 /   5  20  10  20
GAINESVILLE     70  89  71  89 /   5  10  10  20
MACON           71  91  72  91 /   5  20  10  20
ROME            68  90  69  90 /   5  10  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  69  90  70  90 /   5  10  10  20
VIDALIA         73  91  73  93 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 011932
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
332 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
GA AND FLORIDA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS JUST OFF THE GULF
COAST OF FL. WE CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP IN OUR CWA BUT
MOISTURE IS INCREASING SO WILL BE INCREASING POPS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY. MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED
JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL AND IS STILL HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIP TO A MINIMUM AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS STILL A
DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING. THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS ALSO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND IS KIND OF SETTING UP LIKE A WEAK
WEDGE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALL DAY ACROSS
THE STATE ARE CLASSIC SIGNS OF A WEDGE. HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND 70S.

01

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TSTMS ON THU AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE
IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL
BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LINGER INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE HELD
DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

16

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NO
PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE THE
CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT
AND THE DIRECTION IS ALL OVER THE PLACE. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE ARE NE AND HAVE SEEN MAINLY E TO NE WINDS. WINDS SHOULD
STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT PICK UP A BIT BY
16-18Z WED OUT OF THE NW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  71  91 /   5  10  10  20
ATLANTA         72  90  73  90 /   5  10  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  65  85 /   5  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  90  69  90 /   5  10  10  20
COLUMBUS        73  91  73  92 /   5  20  10  20
GAINESVILLE     70  89  71  89 /   5  10  10  20
MACON           71  91  72  91 /   5  20  10  20
ROME            68  90  69  90 /   5  10  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  69  90  70  90 /   5  10  10  20
VIDALIA         73  91  73  93 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 011932
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
332 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
GA AND FLORIDA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS JUST OFF THE GULF
COAST OF FL. WE CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP IN OUR CWA BUT
MOISTURE IS INCREASING SO WILL BE INCREASING POPS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY. MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED
JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FL AND IS STILL HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIP TO A MINIMUM AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS STILL A
DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING. THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS ALSO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND IS KIND OF SETTING UP LIKE A WEAK
WEDGE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALL DAY ACROSS
THE STATE ARE CLASSIC SIGNS OF A WEDGE. HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND 70S.

01

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TSTMS ON THU AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE
IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL
BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH LINGER INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE HELD
DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

16

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NO
PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE THE
CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT
AND THE DIRECTION IS ALL OVER THE PLACE. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE ARE NE AND HAVE SEEN MAINLY E TO NE WINDS. WINDS SHOULD
STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT PICK UP A BIT BY
16-18Z WED OUT OF THE NW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  71  91 /   5  10  10  20
ATLANTA         72  90  73  90 /   5  10  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  65  85 /   5  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  90  69  90 /   5  10  10  20
COLUMBUS        73  91  73  92 /   5  20  10  20
GAINESVILLE     70  89  71  89 /   5  10  10  20
MACON           71  91  72  91 /   5  20  10  20
ROME            68  90  69  90 /   5  10  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  69  90  70  90 /   5  10  10  20
VIDALIA         73  91  73  93 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 011753
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
153 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RATHER QUIET WEATHER ALL IN ALL.
THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BUILT SOME OVER THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OVER SE GA AND GETS CLOSE
TO SOME OF THE COUNTIES SE OF MCN WHERE 20-30 PERCENT POPS WILL
BE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
AND SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME INCREASED
INSTABILITY OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS AS WELL GIVING THE POSSIBILITY
FOR AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR STORM. AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AS OVERALL INSTABILITY IS
WEAK.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS SOME. THE SE
SURFACE TROUGH IS CLOSER TO CENTRAL GA SO POPS ARE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER
AND OVER A LARGER PORTION OF CENTRAL GA...AND ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NE
MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND NORMAL TODAY AND
NEAR TO 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

BDL

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE LONG TERM BEGINS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFULLY. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS TO OUR
WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE BIGGEST INFLUENCE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL
PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN
WITH LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE
PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NO
PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE THE
CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT
AND THE DIRECTION IS ALL OVER THE PLACE. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE ARE NE AND HAVE SEEN MAINLY E TO NE WINDS. WINDS SHOULD
STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT PICK UP A BIT BY
16-18Z WED OUT OF THE NW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  90  71 /  10   5  10  10
ATLANTA         88  72  90  73 /  10   5  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     84  64  85  65 /  30   5  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    88  68  90  69 /  10   5  10  10
COLUMBUS        90  73  91  73 /  10   5  20  10
GAINESVILLE     87  70  89  71 /  10   5  10  10
MACON           89  71  91  72 /  10   5  20  10
ROME            88  68  90  69 /  10   5  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  88  69  90  70 /  10   5  10  10
VIDALIA         90  73  91  73 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 011753
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
153 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RATHER QUIET WEATHER ALL IN ALL.
THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BUILT SOME OVER THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OVER SE GA AND GETS CLOSE
TO SOME OF THE COUNTIES SE OF MCN WHERE 20-30 PERCENT POPS WILL
BE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
AND SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME INCREASED
INSTABILITY OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS AS WELL GIVING THE POSSIBILITY
FOR AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR STORM. AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AS OVERALL INSTABILITY IS
WEAK.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS SOME. THE SE
SURFACE TROUGH IS CLOSER TO CENTRAL GA SO POPS ARE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER
AND OVER A LARGER PORTION OF CENTRAL GA...AND ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NE
MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND NORMAL TODAY AND
NEAR TO 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

BDL

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE LONG TERM BEGINS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFULLY. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS TO OUR
WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE BIGGEST INFLUENCE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL
PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN
WITH LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE
PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NO
PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE THE
CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT
AND THE DIRECTION IS ALL OVER THE PLACE. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE ARE NE AND HAVE SEEN MAINLY E TO NE WINDS. WINDS SHOULD
STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT PICK UP A BIT BY
16-18Z WED OUT OF THE NW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  90  71 /  10   5  10  10
ATLANTA         88  72  90  73 /  10   5  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     84  64  85  65 /  30   5  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    88  68  90  69 /  10   5  10  10
COLUMBUS        90  73  91  73 /  10   5  20  10
GAINESVILLE     87  70  89  71 /  10   5  10  10
MACON           89  71  91  72 /  10   5  20  10
ROME            88  68  90  69 /  10   5  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  88  69  90  70 /  10   5  10  10
VIDALIA         90  73  91  73 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KCHS 011740
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON
UPDATE...MAINLY ACCOUNTING FOR SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN OBSERVED
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS...BUT THINKING REMAINS THE SAME.
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE COAST SHOW WINDS BEGINNING TO VEER...SHORTLY
BECOMING ONSHORE. ONCE THE SEABREEZE GETS GOING...SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16 AND OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS SO GREATEST POPS REMAIN IN THIS AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH INTO THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. ACROSS MUCH
OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA...MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY AS PWATS ARE LOWER
BUT MAINTAINED A SLIGHT AFTERNOON CHANCE FOR MOSTLY SPOTTY AND
SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SHOWERS INITIATED BY THE
SEABREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
INSOLATION THIS EVENING.THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
THE ASSOCIATED STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT ON IT/S NORTH FLANK ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY N
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE DECREASING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS
INTO SE GEORGIA ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS
ACROSS SE GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
MODELS INDICATE PWATS WILL SURGE ABOVE 2.3 INCHES THUS WE
BUMPED POPS UP A BIT SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT REGARDING
ORIENTATION/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...IN GENERAL THE SCENARIO FAVORS
A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT OF POPS...WITH A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 50
PERCENT SOUTH OF I-16. PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AND WEAK LOW/MID
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS THIS AREA...AND LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER80S/LOWER 90S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE REGARDING THIS SCENARIO. THE 01/00Z EURO
MAINTAINS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AND PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WHILE THE
01/00Z GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM DEPICT AN ELONGATED AXIS
OF VORTICITY WHICH PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE
LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS DECREASING POPS WITH TIME...WITH OVERNIGHT
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE MID/UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL POPS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAX HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 98-102F WILL BE COMMON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. POPS ARE
LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT EVEN THESE POPS COULD PROVE TO BE A
BIT HIGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...POPS ARE LIMITED TO COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST...EVEN AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND/OR WEST...DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. POPS SHOULD
INCREASE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WILL BE
COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
18Z WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...PARTICULARLY NEAR KSAV
LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL DUE TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR DIRECT IMPACTS IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THERE ARE ONLY A FEW INDICATIONS
THAT OVERNIGHT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VSBYS
COULD OCCUR...AND THANKS TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS...MVFR CIGS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT
KSAV ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW
FAVORING A MAINLY SSE TO SSW COMPONENT. IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS A
LAND BREEZE WILL SHORTLY GIVE WAY TO A COMBINATION OF THIS
SYNOPTIC FLOW WITH A SEABREEZE LATER. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

THROUGH LATE WEEK...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE
TO WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY THE SEA AND LAND BREEZES. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE INCREASING NE WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 011740
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON
UPDATE...MAINLY ACCOUNTING FOR SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN OBSERVED
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS...BUT THINKING REMAINS THE SAME.
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE COAST SHOW WINDS BEGINNING TO VEER...SHORTLY
BECOMING ONSHORE. ONCE THE SEABREEZE GETS GOING...SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16 AND OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS SO GREATEST POPS REMAIN IN THIS AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH INTO THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. ACROSS MUCH
OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA...MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY AS PWATS ARE LOWER
BUT MAINTAINED A SLIGHT AFTERNOON CHANCE FOR MOSTLY SPOTTY AND
SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SHOWERS INITIATED BY THE
SEABREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
INSOLATION THIS EVENING.THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
THE ASSOCIATED STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT ON IT/S NORTH FLANK ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY N
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE DECREASING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS
INTO SE GEORGIA ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS
ACROSS SE GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
MODELS INDICATE PWATS WILL SURGE ABOVE 2.3 INCHES THUS WE
BUMPED POPS UP A BIT SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT REGARDING
ORIENTATION/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...IN GENERAL THE SCENARIO FAVORS
A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT OF POPS...WITH A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 50
PERCENT SOUTH OF I-16. PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AND WEAK LOW/MID
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS THIS AREA...AND LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER80S/LOWER 90S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE REGARDING THIS SCENARIO. THE 01/00Z EURO
MAINTAINS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AND PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WHILE THE
01/00Z GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM DEPICT AN ELONGATED AXIS
OF VORTICITY WHICH PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE
LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS DECREASING POPS WITH TIME...WITH OVERNIGHT
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE MID/UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL POPS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAX HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 98-102F WILL BE COMMON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. POPS ARE
LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT EVEN THESE POPS COULD PROVE TO BE A
BIT HIGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...POPS ARE LIMITED TO COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST...EVEN AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND/OR WEST...DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. POPS SHOULD
INCREASE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WILL BE
COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
18Z WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...PARTICULARLY NEAR KSAV
LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL DUE TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR DIRECT IMPACTS IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THERE ARE ONLY A FEW INDICATIONS
THAT OVERNIGHT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VSBYS
COULD OCCUR...AND THANKS TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS...MVFR CIGS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT
KSAV ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW
FAVORING A MAINLY SSE TO SSW COMPONENT. IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS A
LAND BREEZE WILL SHORTLY GIVE WAY TO A COMBINATION OF THIS
SYNOPTIC FLOW WITH A SEABREEZE LATER. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

THROUGH LATE WEEK...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE
TO WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY THE SEA AND LAND BREEZES. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE INCREASING NE WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 011740
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON
UPDATE...MAINLY ACCOUNTING FOR SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN OBSERVED
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS...BUT THINKING REMAINS THE SAME.
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE COAST SHOW WINDS BEGINNING TO VEER...SHORTLY
BECOMING ONSHORE. ONCE THE SEABREEZE GETS GOING...SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16 AND OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS SO GREATEST POPS REMAIN IN THIS AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH INTO THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. ACROSS MUCH
OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA...MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY AS PWATS ARE LOWER
BUT MAINTAINED A SLIGHT AFTERNOON CHANCE FOR MOSTLY SPOTTY AND
SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SHOWERS INITIATED BY THE
SEABREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
INSOLATION THIS EVENING.THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
THE ASSOCIATED STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT ON IT/S NORTH FLANK ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY N
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE DECREASING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS
INTO SE GEORGIA ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS
ACROSS SE GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
MODELS INDICATE PWATS WILL SURGE ABOVE 2.3 INCHES THUS WE
BUMPED POPS UP A BIT SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT REGARDING
ORIENTATION/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...IN GENERAL THE SCENARIO FAVORS
A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT OF POPS...WITH A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 50
PERCENT SOUTH OF I-16. PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AND WEAK LOW/MID
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS THIS AREA...AND LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER80S/LOWER 90S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE REGARDING THIS SCENARIO. THE 01/00Z EURO
MAINTAINS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AND PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WHILE THE
01/00Z GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM DEPICT AN ELONGATED AXIS
OF VORTICITY WHICH PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE
LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS DECREASING POPS WITH TIME...WITH OVERNIGHT
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE MID/UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL POPS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAX HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 98-102F WILL BE COMMON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. POPS ARE
LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT EVEN THESE POPS COULD PROVE TO BE A
BIT HIGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...POPS ARE LIMITED TO COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST...EVEN AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND/OR WEST...DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. POPS SHOULD
INCREASE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WILL BE
COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
18Z WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...PARTICULARLY NEAR KSAV
LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL DUE TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR DIRECT IMPACTS IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THERE ARE ONLY A FEW INDICATIONS
THAT OVERNIGHT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VSBYS
COULD OCCUR...AND THANKS TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS...MVFR CIGS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT
KSAV ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW
FAVORING A MAINLY SSE TO SSW COMPONENT. IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS A
LAND BREEZE WILL SHORTLY GIVE WAY TO A COMBINATION OF THIS
SYNOPTIC FLOW WITH A SEABREEZE LATER. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

THROUGH LATE WEEK...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE
TO WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY THE SEA AND LAND BREEZES. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE INCREASING NE WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 011740
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON
UPDATE...MAINLY ACCOUNTING FOR SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN OBSERVED
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS...BUT THINKING REMAINS THE SAME.
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE COAST SHOW WINDS BEGINNING TO VEER...SHORTLY
BECOMING ONSHORE. ONCE THE SEABREEZE GETS GOING...SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16 AND OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS SO GREATEST POPS REMAIN IN THIS AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH INTO THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. ACROSS MUCH
OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA...MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY AS PWATS ARE LOWER
BUT MAINTAINED A SLIGHT AFTERNOON CHANCE FOR MOSTLY SPOTTY AND
SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SHOWERS INITIATED BY THE
SEABREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
INSOLATION THIS EVENING.THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
THE ASSOCIATED STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT ON IT/S NORTH FLANK ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY N
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE DECREASING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS
INTO SE GEORGIA ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS
ACROSS SE GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
MODELS INDICATE PWATS WILL SURGE ABOVE 2.3 INCHES THUS WE
BUMPED POPS UP A BIT SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT REGARDING
ORIENTATION/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...IN GENERAL THE SCENARIO FAVORS
A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT OF POPS...WITH A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 50
PERCENT SOUTH OF I-16. PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AND WEAK LOW/MID
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS THIS AREA...AND LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER80S/LOWER 90S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE REGARDING THIS SCENARIO. THE 01/00Z EURO
MAINTAINS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AND PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WHILE THE
01/00Z GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM DEPICT AN ELONGATED AXIS
OF VORTICITY WHICH PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE
LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS DECREASING POPS WITH TIME...WITH OVERNIGHT
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE MID/UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL POPS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAX HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 98-102F WILL BE COMMON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. POPS ARE
LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT EVEN THESE POPS COULD PROVE TO BE A
BIT HIGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...POPS ARE LIMITED TO COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST...EVEN AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND/OR WEST...DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. POPS SHOULD
INCREASE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WILL BE
COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
18Z WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...PARTICULARLY NEAR KSAV
LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL DUE TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR DIRECT IMPACTS IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THERE ARE ONLY A FEW INDICATIONS
THAT OVERNIGHT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VSBYS
COULD OCCUR...AND THANKS TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS...MVFR CIGS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT
KSAV ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW
FAVORING A MAINLY SSE TO SSW COMPONENT. IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS A
LAND BREEZE WILL SHORTLY GIVE WAY TO A COMBINATION OF THIS
SYNOPTIC FLOW WITH A SEABREEZE LATER. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

THROUGH LATE WEEK...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE
TO WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY THE SEA AND LAND BREEZES. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE INCREASING NE WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 011740
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON
UPDATE...MAINLY ACCOUNTING FOR SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN OBSERVED
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS...BUT THINKING REMAINS THE SAME.
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE COAST SHOW WINDS BEGINNING TO VEER...SHORTLY
BECOMING ONSHORE. ONCE THE SEABREEZE GETS GOING...SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16 AND OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS SO GREATEST POPS REMAIN IN THIS AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH INTO THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. ACROSS MUCH
OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA...MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY AS PWATS ARE LOWER
BUT MAINTAINED A SLIGHT AFTERNOON CHANCE FOR MOSTLY SPOTTY AND
SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SHOWERS INITIATED BY THE
SEABREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
INSOLATION THIS EVENING.THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
THE ASSOCIATED STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT ON IT/S NORTH FLANK ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY N
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE DECREASING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS
INTO SE GEORGIA ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS
ACROSS SE GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
MODELS INDICATE PWATS WILL SURGE ABOVE 2.3 INCHES THUS WE
BUMPED POPS UP A BIT SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT REGARDING
ORIENTATION/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...IN GENERAL THE SCENARIO FAVORS
A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT OF POPS...WITH A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 50
PERCENT SOUTH OF I-16. PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AND WEAK LOW/MID
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS THIS AREA...AND LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER80S/LOWER 90S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE REGARDING THIS SCENARIO. THE 01/00Z EURO
MAINTAINS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AND PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WHILE THE
01/00Z GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM DEPICT AN ELONGATED AXIS
OF VORTICITY WHICH PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE
LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS DECREASING POPS WITH TIME...WITH OVERNIGHT
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE MID/UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL POPS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAX HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 98-102F WILL BE COMMON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. POPS ARE
LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT EVEN THESE POPS COULD PROVE TO BE A
BIT HIGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...POPS ARE LIMITED TO COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST...EVEN AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND/OR WEST...DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. POPS SHOULD
INCREASE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WILL BE
COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
18Z WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...PARTICULARLY NEAR KSAV
LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL DUE TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR DIRECT IMPACTS IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THERE ARE ONLY A FEW INDICATIONS
THAT OVERNIGHT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VSBYS
COULD OCCUR...AND THANKS TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS...MVFR CIGS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT
KSAV ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW
FAVORING A MAINLY SSE TO SSW COMPONENT. IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS A
LAND BREEZE WILL SHORTLY GIVE WAY TO A COMBINATION OF THIS
SYNOPTIC FLOW WITH A SEABREEZE LATER. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

THROUGH LATE WEEK...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE
TO WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY THE SEA AND LAND BREEZES. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE INCREASING NE WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 011740
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON
UPDATE...MAINLY ACCOUNTING FOR SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN OBSERVED
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS...BUT THINKING REMAINS THE SAME.
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE COAST SHOW WINDS BEGINNING TO VEER...SHORTLY
BECOMING ONSHORE. ONCE THE SEABREEZE GETS GOING...SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16 AND OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS SO GREATEST POPS REMAIN IN THIS AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH INTO THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. ACROSS MUCH
OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA...MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY AS PWATS ARE LOWER
BUT MAINTAINED A SLIGHT AFTERNOON CHANCE FOR MOSTLY SPOTTY AND
SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SHOWERS INITIATED BY THE
SEABREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
INSOLATION THIS EVENING.THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
THE ASSOCIATED STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT ON IT/S NORTH FLANK ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY N
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE DECREASING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS
INTO SE GEORGIA ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS
ACROSS SE GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
MODELS INDICATE PWATS WILL SURGE ABOVE 2.3 INCHES THUS WE
BUMPED POPS UP A BIT SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT REGARDING
ORIENTATION/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...IN GENERAL THE SCENARIO FAVORS
A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT OF POPS...WITH A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 50
PERCENT SOUTH OF I-16. PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AND WEAK LOW/MID
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS THIS AREA...AND LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER80S/LOWER 90S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE REGARDING THIS SCENARIO. THE 01/00Z EURO
MAINTAINS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AND PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WHILE THE
01/00Z GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM DEPICT AN ELONGATED AXIS
OF VORTICITY WHICH PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE
LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS DECREASING POPS WITH TIME...WITH OVERNIGHT
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE MID/UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL POPS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAX HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 98-102F WILL BE COMMON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. POPS ARE
LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT EVEN THESE POPS COULD PROVE TO BE A
BIT HIGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...POPS ARE LIMITED TO COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST...EVEN AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND/OR WEST...DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. POPS SHOULD
INCREASE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WILL BE
COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
18Z WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...PARTICULARLY NEAR KSAV
LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL DUE TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR DIRECT IMPACTS IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THERE ARE ONLY A FEW INDICATIONS
THAT OVERNIGHT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VSBYS
COULD OCCUR...AND THANKS TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS...MVFR CIGS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT
KSAV ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW
FAVORING A MAINLY SSE TO SSW COMPONENT. IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS A
LAND BREEZE WILL SHORTLY GIVE WAY TO A COMBINATION OF THIS
SYNOPTIC FLOW WITH A SEABREEZE LATER. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

THROUGH LATE WEEK...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE
TO WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY THE SEA AND LAND BREEZES. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE INCREASING NE WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 011740
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON
UPDATE...MAINLY ACCOUNTING FOR SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN OBSERVED
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS...BUT THINKING REMAINS THE SAME.
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE COAST SHOW WINDS BEGINNING TO VEER...SHORTLY
BECOMING ONSHORE. ONCE THE SEABREEZE GETS GOING...SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16 AND OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS SO GREATEST POPS REMAIN IN THIS AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH INTO THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. ACROSS MUCH
OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA...MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY AS PWATS ARE LOWER
BUT MAINTAINED A SLIGHT AFTERNOON CHANCE FOR MOSTLY SPOTTY AND
SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SHOWERS INITIATED BY THE
SEABREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
INSOLATION THIS EVENING.THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
THE ASSOCIATED STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT ON IT/S NORTH FLANK ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY N
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE DECREASING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS
INTO SE GEORGIA ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS
ACROSS SE GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
MODELS INDICATE PWATS WILL SURGE ABOVE 2.3 INCHES THUS WE
BUMPED POPS UP A BIT SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT REGARDING
ORIENTATION/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...IN GENERAL THE SCENARIO FAVORS
A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT OF POPS...WITH A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 50
PERCENT SOUTH OF I-16. PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AND WEAK LOW/MID
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS THIS AREA...AND LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER80S/LOWER 90S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE REGARDING THIS SCENARIO. THE 01/00Z EURO
MAINTAINS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AND PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WHILE THE
01/00Z GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM DEPICT AN ELONGATED AXIS
OF VORTICITY WHICH PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE
LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS DECREASING POPS WITH TIME...WITH OVERNIGHT
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE MID/UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL POPS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAX HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 98-102F WILL BE COMMON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. POPS ARE
LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT EVEN THESE POPS COULD PROVE TO BE A
BIT HIGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...POPS ARE LIMITED TO COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST...EVEN AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND/OR WEST...DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. POPS SHOULD
INCREASE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WILL BE
COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
18Z WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...PARTICULARLY NEAR KSAV
LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL DUE TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR DIRECT IMPACTS IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THERE ARE ONLY A FEW INDICATIONS
THAT OVERNIGHT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VSBYS
COULD OCCUR...AND THANKS TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS...MVFR CIGS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT
KSAV ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW
FAVORING A MAINLY SSE TO SSW COMPONENT. IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS A
LAND BREEZE WILL SHORTLY GIVE WAY TO A COMBINATION OF THIS
SYNOPTIC FLOW WITH A SEABREEZE LATER. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

THROUGH LATE WEEK...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE
TO WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY THE SEA AND LAND BREEZES. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE INCREASING NE WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 011740
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON
UPDATE...MAINLY ACCOUNTING FOR SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN OBSERVED
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS...BUT THINKING REMAINS THE SAME.
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE COAST SHOW WINDS BEGINNING TO VEER...SHORTLY
BECOMING ONSHORE. ONCE THE SEABREEZE GETS GOING...SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16 AND OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS SO GREATEST POPS REMAIN IN THIS AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH INTO THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. ACROSS MUCH
OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA...MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY AS PWATS ARE LOWER
BUT MAINTAINED A SLIGHT AFTERNOON CHANCE FOR MOSTLY SPOTTY AND
SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SHOWERS INITIATED BY THE
SEABREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
INSOLATION THIS EVENING.THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
THE ASSOCIATED STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT ON IT/S NORTH FLANK ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY N
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE DECREASING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS
INTO SE GEORGIA ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS
ACROSS SE GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
MODELS INDICATE PWATS WILL SURGE ABOVE 2.3 INCHES THUS WE
BUMPED POPS UP A BIT SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT REGARDING
ORIENTATION/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...IN GENERAL THE SCENARIO FAVORS
A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT OF POPS...WITH A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 50
PERCENT SOUTH OF I-16. PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AND WEAK LOW/MID
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS THIS AREA...AND LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER80S/LOWER 90S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE REGARDING THIS SCENARIO. THE 01/00Z EURO
MAINTAINS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AND PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WHILE THE
01/00Z GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM DEPICT AN ELONGATED AXIS
OF VORTICITY WHICH PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE
LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS DECREASING POPS WITH TIME...WITH OVERNIGHT
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE MID/UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL POPS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAX HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 98-102F WILL BE COMMON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. POPS ARE
LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT EVEN THESE POPS COULD PROVE TO BE A
BIT HIGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...POPS ARE LIMITED TO COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST...EVEN AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND/OR WEST...DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. POPS SHOULD
INCREASE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WILL BE
COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
18Z WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...PARTICULARLY NEAR KSAV
LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL DUE TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR DIRECT IMPACTS IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THERE ARE ONLY A FEW INDICATIONS
THAT OVERNIGHT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VSBYS
COULD OCCUR...AND THANKS TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS...MVFR CIGS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT
KSAV ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW
FAVORING A MAINLY SSE TO SSW COMPONENT. IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS A
LAND BREEZE WILL SHORTLY GIVE WAY TO A COMBINATION OF THIS
SYNOPTIC FLOW WITH A SEABREEZE LATER. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

THROUGH LATE WEEK...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE
TO WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY THE SEA AND LAND BREEZES. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE INCREASING NE WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 011740
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON
UPDATE...MAINLY ACCOUNTING FOR SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN OBSERVED
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS...BUT THINKING REMAINS THE SAME.
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE COAST SHOW WINDS BEGINNING TO VEER...SHORTLY
BECOMING ONSHORE. ONCE THE SEABREEZE GETS GOING...SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16 AND OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS SO GREATEST POPS REMAIN IN THIS AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH INTO THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. ACROSS MUCH
OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA...MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY AS PWATS ARE LOWER
BUT MAINTAINED A SLIGHT AFTERNOON CHANCE FOR MOSTLY SPOTTY AND
SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SHOWERS INITIATED BY THE
SEABREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
INSOLATION THIS EVENING.THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
THE ASSOCIATED STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT ON IT/S NORTH FLANK ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY N
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE DECREASING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS
INTO SE GEORGIA ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS
ACROSS SE GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
MODELS INDICATE PWATS WILL SURGE ABOVE 2.3 INCHES THUS WE
BUMPED POPS UP A BIT SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT REGARDING
ORIENTATION/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...IN GENERAL THE SCENARIO FAVORS
A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT OF POPS...WITH A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 50
PERCENT SOUTH OF I-16. PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AND WEAK LOW/MID
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS THIS AREA...AND LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER80S/LOWER 90S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE REGARDING THIS SCENARIO. THE 01/00Z EURO
MAINTAINS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AND PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WHILE THE
01/00Z GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM DEPICT AN ELONGATED AXIS
OF VORTICITY WHICH PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE
LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS DECREASING POPS WITH TIME...WITH OVERNIGHT
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE MID/UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL POPS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAX HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 98-102F WILL BE COMMON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. POPS ARE
LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT EVEN THESE POPS COULD PROVE TO BE A
BIT HIGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...POPS ARE LIMITED TO COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST...EVEN AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND/OR WEST...DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. POPS SHOULD
INCREASE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WILL BE
COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
18Z WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...PARTICULARLY NEAR KSAV
LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL DUE TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR DIRECT IMPACTS IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THERE ARE ONLY A FEW INDICATIONS
THAT OVERNIGHT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VSBYS
COULD OCCUR...AND THANKS TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS...MVFR CIGS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT
KSAV ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW
FAVORING A MAINLY SSE TO SSW COMPONENT. IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS A
LAND BREEZE WILL SHORTLY GIVE WAY TO A COMBINATION OF THIS
SYNOPTIC FLOW WITH A SEABREEZE LATER. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

THROUGH LATE WEEK...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE
TO WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY THE SEA AND LAND BREEZES. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE INCREASING NE WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 011740
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON
UPDATE...MAINLY ACCOUNTING FOR SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN OBSERVED
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS...BUT THINKING REMAINS THE SAME.
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE COAST SHOW WINDS BEGINNING TO VEER...SHORTLY
BECOMING ONSHORE. ONCE THE SEABREEZE GETS GOING...SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16 AND OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS SO GREATEST POPS REMAIN IN THIS AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH INTO THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. ACROSS MUCH
OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA...MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY AS PWATS ARE LOWER
BUT MAINTAINED A SLIGHT AFTERNOON CHANCE FOR MOSTLY SPOTTY AND
SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SHOWERS INITIATED BY THE
SEABREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
INSOLATION THIS EVENING.THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
THE ASSOCIATED STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT ON IT/S NORTH FLANK ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY N
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE DECREASING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS
INTO SE GEORGIA ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS
ACROSS SE GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
MODELS INDICATE PWATS WILL SURGE ABOVE 2.3 INCHES THUS WE
BUMPED POPS UP A BIT SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT REGARDING
ORIENTATION/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...IN GENERAL THE SCENARIO FAVORS
A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT OF POPS...WITH A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 50
PERCENT SOUTH OF I-16. PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AND WEAK LOW/MID
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS THIS AREA...AND LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER80S/LOWER 90S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE REGARDING THIS SCENARIO. THE 01/00Z EURO
MAINTAINS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AND PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WHILE THE
01/00Z GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM DEPICT AN ELONGATED AXIS
OF VORTICITY WHICH PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE
LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS DECREASING POPS WITH TIME...WITH OVERNIGHT
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE MID/UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL POPS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAX HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 98-102F WILL BE COMMON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. POPS ARE
LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT EVEN THESE POPS COULD PROVE TO BE A
BIT HIGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...POPS ARE LIMITED TO COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST...EVEN AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND/OR WEST...DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. POPS SHOULD
INCREASE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WILL BE
COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
18Z WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...PARTICULARLY NEAR KSAV
LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL DUE TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SEABREEZE BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR DIRECT IMPACTS IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THERE ARE ONLY A FEW INDICATIONS
THAT OVERNIGHT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VSBYS
COULD OCCUR...AND THANKS TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS...MVFR CIGS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT
KSAV ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW
FAVORING A MAINLY SSE TO SSW COMPONENT. IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS A
LAND BREEZE WILL SHORTLY GIVE WAY TO A COMBINATION OF THIS
SYNOPTIC FLOW WITH A SEABREEZE LATER. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

THROUGH LATE WEEK...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE
TO WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY THE SEA AND LAND BREEZES. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE INCREASING NE WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR




000
FXUS62 KCAE 011732
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
132 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.
INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MID
LEVEL CAP WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS/CSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
MOS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...AROUND 70...APPEAR ON TARGET AND
ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY...CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA MOVING NORTHEAST...AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...ALONG COASTAL
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR FA.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR
FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT CHANCE
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK. TEMPERATURES WARMING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS INTO THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z GFS SIMILAR WITH 00Z ECMWF WITH SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES/CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS DEVELOPING
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST BY MONDAY BUT ECMWF
WEAKER AND MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES. TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A RELATIVE DRY ARMS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB FROM ABOUT 09Z THROUGH 14Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY
16Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 011732
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
132 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.
INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MID
LEVEL CAP WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS/CSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
MOS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...AROUND 70...APPEAR ON TARGET AND
ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY...CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA MOVING NORTHEAST...AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...ALONG COASTAL
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR FA.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR
FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT CHANCE
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK. TEMPERATURES WARMING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS INTO THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z GFS SIMILAR WITH 00Z ECMWF WITH SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES/CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS DEVELOPING
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST BY MONDAY BUT ECMWF
WEAKER AND MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES. TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A RELATIVE DRY ARMS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB FROM ABOUT 09Z THROUGH 14Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY
16Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 011732
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
132 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.
INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MID
LEVEL CAP WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS/CSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
MOS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...AROUND 70...APPEAR ON TARGET AND
ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY...CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA MOVING NORTHEAST...AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...ALONG COASTAL
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR FA.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR
FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT CHANCE
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK. TEMPERATURES WARMING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS INTO THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z GFS SIMILAR WITH 00Z ECMWF WITH SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES/CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS DEVELOPING
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST BY MONDAY BUT ECMWF
WEAKER AND MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES. TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A RELATIVE DRY ARMS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB FROM ABOUT 09Z THROUGH 14Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY
16Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 011447
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1047 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.
INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A PATCH OF STRATOCU DEVELOPED UNDERNEATH THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...BUT THAT HAS SINCE
STARTED TO MIX OUT...WHILE OTHER STRATOCU HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA. STILL THINK THE INVERSION WILL
INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP UNDERNEATH IT...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA CLOSER TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN. THIS IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...THE EXCEPTION BEING THE 00Z RUN OF
THE WRF-NMM. TEMPS LOOK OK.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPPER AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST FURTHER OFFSHORE THE NC COAST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SE
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...WHILE CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER
THE MIDWEST. UPPER ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH
OVER FLORIDA PROGGED TO CONTINUE ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA). MODELS PROG A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED SOUTH.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY AND CAPPED
CONDITIONS FOR OUR FA...APPEARING TO SUPPRESS THUNDER...THOUGH
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT INDICATING PREMISE FOR SOME
SHALLOW DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...REMAINING SOUTH
OF OUR FA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT
CHANCE MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
31/12Z ECMWF SHIFTS UPPER CLOSED LOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST
EAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE 01/00Z GFS KEEPS THAT UPPER LOW TO
OUR WEST BUT INDICATES UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CUTTING OFF AND SHIFTING WEST INTO OUR REGION. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING INTO OUR REGION WITH AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ACCEPT BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING FORECAST WHICH
GENERALLY INDICATES CHANCE POPS...AND MAX TEMPS TRENDING DOWN
SOME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A RELATIVE DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY.

STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR FOG AT AGS/OGB THROUGH 14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY 14Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 011447
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1047 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.
INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A PATCH OF STRATOCU DEVELOPED UNDERNEATH THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...BUT THAT HAS SINCE
STARTED TO MIX OUT...WHILE OTHER STRATOCU HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA. STILL THINK THE INVERSION WILL
INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP UNDERNEATH IT...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA CLOSER TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN. THIS IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...THE EXCEPTION BEING THE 00Z RUN OF
THE WRF-NMM. TEMPS LOOK OK.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPPER AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST FURTHER OFFSHORE THE NC COAST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SE
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...WHILE CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER
THE MIDWEST. UPPER ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH
OVER FLORIDA PROGGED TO CONTINUE ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA). MODELS PROG A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED SOUTH.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY AND CAPPED
CONDITIONS FOR OUR FA...APPEARING TO SUPPRESS THUNDER...THOUGH
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT INDICATING PREMISE FOR SOME
SHALLOW DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...REMAINING SOUTH
OF OUR FA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT
CHANCE MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
31/12Z ECMWF SHIFTS UPPER CLOSED LOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST
EAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE 01/00Z GFS KEEPS THAT UPPER LOW TO
OUR WEST BUT INDICATES UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CUTTING OFF AND SHIFTING WEST INTO OUR REGION. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING INTO OUR REGION WITH AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ACCEPT BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING FORECAST WHICH
GENERALLY INDICATES CHANCE POPS...AND MAX TEMPS TRENDING DOWN
SOME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A RELATIVE DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY.

STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR FOG AT AGS/OGB THROUGH 14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY 14Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 011447
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1047 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.
INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A PATCH OF STRATOCU DEVELOPED UNDERNEATH THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...BUT THAT HAS SINCE
STARTED TO MIX OUT...WHILE OTHER STRATOCU HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA. STILL THINK THE INVERSION WILL
INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP UNDERNEATH IT...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA CLOSER TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN. THIS IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...THE EXCEPTION BEING THE 00Z RUN OF
THE WRF-NMM. TEMPS LOOK OK.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPPER AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST FURTHER OFFSHORE THE NC COAST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SE
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...WHILE CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER
THE MIDWEST. UPPER ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH
OVER FLORIDA PROGGED TO CONTINUE ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA). MODELS PROG A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED SOUTH.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY AND CAPPED
CONDITIONS FOR OUR FA...APPEARING TO SUPPRESS THUNDER...THOUGH
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT INDICATING PREMISE FOR SOME
SHALLOW DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...REMAINING SOUTH
OF OUR FA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT
CHANCE MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
31/12Z ECMWF SHIFTS UPPER CLOSED LOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST
EAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE 01/00Z GFS KEEPS THAT UPPER LOW TO
OUR WEST BUT INDICATES UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CUTTING OFF AND SHIFTING WEST INTO OUR REGION. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING INTO OUR REGION WITH AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ACCEPT BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING FORECAST WHICH
GENERALLY INDICATES CHANCE POPS...AND MAX TEMPS TRENDING DOWN
SOME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A RELATIVE DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY.

STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR FOG AT AGS/OGB THROUGH 14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY 14Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 011447
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1047 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.
INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A PATCH OF STRATOCU DEVELOPED UNDERNEATH THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...BUT THAT HAS SINCE
STARTED TO MIX OUT...WHILE OTHER STRATOCU HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA. STILL THINK THE INVERSION WILL
INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP UNDERNEATH IT...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA CLOSER TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN. THIS IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...THE EXCEPTION BEING THE 00Z RUN OF
THE WRF-NMM. TEMPS LOOK OK.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPPER AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST FURTHER OFFSHORE THE NC COAST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SE
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...WHILE CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER
THE MIDWEST. UPPER ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH
OVER FLORIDA PROGGED TO CONTINUE ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA). MODELS PROG A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED SOUTH.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY AND CAPPED
CONDITIONS FOR OUR FA...APPEARING TO SUPPRESS THUNDER...THOUGH
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT INDICATING PREMISE FOR SOME
SHALLOW DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...REMAINING SOUTH
OF OUR FA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT
CHANCE MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
31/12Z ECMWF SHIFTS UPPER CLOSED LOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST
EAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE 01/00Z GFS KEEPS THAT UPPER LOW TO
OUR WEST BUT INDICATES UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CUTTING OFF AND SHIFTING WEST INTO OUR REGION. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING INTO OUR REGION WITH AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ACCEPT BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING FORECAST WHICH
GENERALLY INDICATES CHANCE POPS...AND MAX TEMPS TRENDING DOWN
SOME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A RELATIVE DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY.

STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR FOG AT AGS/OGB THROUGH 14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY 14Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 011442
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1042 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR THE LATE MORNING UPDATE THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED EXCEPT FOR VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...PRIMARILY TO
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS...BUT MAXIMUM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WE HAVE MODIFIED THE WINDS TO
SHOW A SLIGHTLY LATER ONSET OF THE SEABREEZE AND TO DEPICT WINDS
VEERING INTO THE SEABREEZE BASED ON A STRONG CONSENSUS OF THE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG
MOISTURE GRADIENT ON IT/S NORTH FLANK ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY N LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. IN COMBINATION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THIS PATTERN
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASES IN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS SE GEORGIA ALONG THE COAST AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16
TODAY...AND RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS CURRENTLY DEPICT THIS WELL.
LATER...THERE MAY BE A FEW DOWNPOURS CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON DRIVEN MAINLY BY THE SEABREEZE BUT
OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MEAGER TO THE SOUTH AND ANY SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION THIS
EVENING.

ACROSS MUCH OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY
TODAY AS PWATS ARE LOWER BUT MAINTAINED A SLIGHT AFTERNOON CHANCE
FOR MOSTLY SPOTTY AND SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
GIVEN A SLOWLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS ADJACENT
WATERS.

TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE DECREASING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS
INTO SE GEORGIA ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS
ACROSS SE GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
MODELS INDICATE PWATS WILL SURGE ABOVE 2.3 INCHES THUS WE
BUMPED POPS UP A BIT SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT REGARDING
ORIENTATION/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...IN GENERAL THE SCENARIO FAVORS
A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT OF POPS...WITH A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 50
PERCENT SOUTH OF I-16. PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AND WEAK LOW/MID
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS THIS AREA...AND LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER80S/LOWER 90S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE REGARDING THIS SCENARIO. THE 01/00Z EURO
MAINTAINS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AND PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WHILE THE
01/00Z GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM DEPICT AN ELONGATED AXIS
OF VORTICITY WHICH PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE
LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS DECREASING POPS WITH TIME...WITH OVERNIGHT
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE MID/UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL POPS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAX HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 98-102F WILL BE COMMON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. POPS ARE
LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT EVEN THESE POPS COULD PROVE TO BE A
BIT HIGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...POPS ARE LIMITED TO COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST...EVEN AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND/OR WEST...DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. POPS SHOULD
INCREASE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WILL BE
COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BECOME A DEEPER AT KSAV LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AT KSAV ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITIES ARE RATHER LOW
AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW
FAVORING A MAINLY SSE TO SSW COMPONENT. IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS A
LAND BREEZE WILL SHORTLY GIVE WAY TO A COMBINATION OF THIS
SYNOPTIC FLOW WITH A SEABREEZE LATER. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

THROUGH LATE WEEK...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE
TO WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY THE SEA AND LAND BREEZES. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE INCREASING NE WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 011442
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1042 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR THE LATE MORNING UPDATE THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED EXCEPT FOR VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...PRIMARILY TO
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS...BUT MAXIMUM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WE HAVE MODIFIED THE WINDS TO
SHOW A SLIGHTLY LATER ONSET OF THE SEABREEZE AND TO DEPICT WINDS
VEERING INTO THE SEABREEZE BASED ON A STRONG CONSENSUS OF THE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG
MOISTURE GRADIENT ON IT/S NORTH FLANK ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY N LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. IN COMBINATION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THIS PATTERN
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASES IN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS SE GEORGIA ALONG THE COAST AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16
TODAY...AND RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS CURRENTLY DEPICT THIS WELL.
LATER...THERE MAY BE A FEW DOWNPOURS CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON DRIVEN MAINLY BY THE SEABREEZE BUT
OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MEAGER TO THE SOUTH AND ANY SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION THIS
EVENING.

ACROSS MUCH OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY
TODAY AS PWATS ARE LOWER BUT MAINTAINED A SLIGHT AFTERNOON CHANCE
FOR MOSTLY SPOTTY AND SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
GIVEN A SLOWLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS ADJACENT
WATERS.

TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE DECREASING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS
INTO SE GEORGIA ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS
ACROSS SE GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
MODELS INDICATE PWATS WILL SURGE ABOVE 2.3 INCHES THUS WE
BUMPED POPS UP A BIT SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT REGARDING
ORIENTATION/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...IN GENERAL THE SCENARIO FAVORS
A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT OF POPS...WITH A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 50
PERCENT SOUTH OF I-16. PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AND WEAK LOW/MID
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS THIS AREA...AND LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER80S/LOWER 90S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE REGARDING THIS SCENARIO. THE 01/00Z EURO
MAINTAINS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AND PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WHILE THE
01/00Z GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM DEPICT AN ELONGATED AXIS
OF VORTICITY WHICH PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE
LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS DECREASING POPS WITH TIME...WITH OVERNIGHT
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE MID/UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL POPS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAX HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 98-102F WILL BE COMMON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. POPS ARE
LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT EVEN THESE POPS COULD PROVE TO BE A
BIT HIGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...POPS ARE LIMITED TO COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST...EVEN AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND/OR WEST...DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. POPS SHOULD
INCREASE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WILL BE
COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BECOME A DEEPER AT KSAV LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AT KSAV ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITIES ARE RATHER LOW
AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW
FAVORING A MAINLY SSE TO SSW COMPONENT. IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS A
LAND BREEZE WILL SHORTLY GIVE WAY TO A COMBINATION OF THIS
SYNOPTIC FLOW WITH A SEABREEZE LATER. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

THROUGH LATE WEEK...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE
TO WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY THE SEA AND LAND BREEZES. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE INCREASING NE WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 011131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG
MOISTURE GRADIENT ON IT/S NORTH FLANK ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY N LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SINCE THIS MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...A SERIES OF MOSTLY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS MOVING ACROSS WILL PROBABLY NOT BUCKLE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THE PATTERN SHOULD INTRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SE GEORGIA ALONG
AND THE COAST AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16 TODAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW
DOWNPOURS CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WITH CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MEAGER TO THE SOUTH.

ACROSS MUCH OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY
TODAY AS PWATS ARE LOWER BUT MAINTAINED A SLIGHT AFTERNOON CHANCE
FOR MOSTLY SPOTTY AND SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
GIVEN A SLOWLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS ADJACENT
WATERS.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S NW ZONES TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S ACROSS MCINTOSH COUNTY.

TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE DECREASING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS
INTO SE GEORGIA ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS
ACROSS SE GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
MODELS INDICATE PWATS WILL SURGE ABOVE 2.3 INCHES THUS WE
BUMPED POPS UP A BIT SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT REGARDING
ORIENTATION/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...IN GENERAL THE SCENARIO FAVORS
A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT OF POPS...WITH A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 50
PERCENT SOUTH OF I-16. PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AND WEAK LOW/MID
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS THIS AREA...AND LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER80S/LOWER 90S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE REGARDING THIS SCENARIO. THE 01/00Z EURO
MAINTAINS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AND PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WHILE THE
01/00Z GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM DEPICT AN ELONGATED AXIS
OF VORTICITY WHICH PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE
LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS DECREASING POPS WITH TIME...WITH OVERNIGHT
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE MID/UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL POPS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAX HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 98-102F WILL BE COMMON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. POPS ARE
LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT EVEN THESE POPS COULD PROVE TO BE A
BIT HIGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...POPS ARE LIMITED TO COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST...EVEN AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND/OR WEST...DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. POPS SHOULD
INCREASE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WILL BE
COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BECOME A DEEPER AT KSAV LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AT KSAV ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITIES ARE RATHER LOW
AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW
FAVORING A MAINLY SSE TO SSW COMPONENT AFTER A FAIRLY VARIABLE
EARLY MORNING REGIME. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 3
FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

THROUGH LATE WEEK...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE
TO WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY THE SEA AND LAND BREEZES. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE INCREASING NE WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 011131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG
MOISTURE GRADIENT ON IT/S NORTH FLANK ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY N LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SINCE THIS MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...A SERIES OF MOSTLY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS MOVING ACROSS WILL PROBABLY NOT BUCKLE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THE PATTERN SHOULD INTRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SE GEORGIA ALONG
AND THE COAST AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16 TODAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW
DOWNPOURS CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WITH CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MEAGER TO THE SOUTH.

ACROSS MUCH OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY
TODAY AS PWATS ARE LOWER BUT MAINTAINED A SLIGHT AFTERNOON CHANCE
FOR MOSTLY SPOTTY AND SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
GIVEN A SLOWLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS ADJACENT
WATERS.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S NW ZONES TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S ACROSS MCINTOSH COUNTY.

TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE DECREASING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS
INTO SE GEORGIA ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS
ACROSS SE GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
MODELS INDICATE PWATS WILL SURGE ABOVE 2.3 INCHES THUS WE
BUMPED POPS UP A BIT SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT REGARDING
ORIENTATION/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...IN GENERAL THE SCENARIO FAVORS
A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT OF POPS...WITH A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 50
PERCENT SOUTH OF I-16. PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AND WEAK LOW/MID
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS THIS AREA...AND LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER80S/LOWER 90S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE REGARDING THIS SCENARIO. THE 01/00Z EURO
MAINTAINS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AND PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WHILE THE
01/00Z GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM DEPICT AN ELONGATED AXIS
OF VORTICITY WHICH PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE
LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS DECREASING POPS WITH TIME...WITH OVERNIGHT
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE MID/UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL POPS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAX HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 98-102F WILL BE COMMON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. POPS ARE
LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT EVEN THESE POPS COULD PROVE TO BE A
BIT HIGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...POPS ARE LIMITED TO COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST...EVEN AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND/OR WEST...DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. POPS SHOULD
INCREASE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WILL BE
COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BECOME A DEEPER AT KSAV LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AT KSAV ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITIES ARE RATHER LOW
AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW
FAVORING A MAINLY SSE TO SSW COMPONENT AFTER A FAIRLY VARIABLE
EARLY MORNING REGIME. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 3
FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

THROUGH LATE WEEK...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE
TO WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY THE SEA AND LAND BREEZES. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE INCREASING NE WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 011131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG
MOISTURE GRADIENT ON IT/S NORTH FLANK ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY N LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SINCE THIS MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...A SERIES OF MOSTLY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS MOVING ACROSS WILL PROBABLY NOT BUCKLE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THE PATTERN SHOULD INTRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SE GEORGIA ALONG
AND THE COAST AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16 TODAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW
DOWNPOURS CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WITH CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MEAGER TO THE SOUTH.

ACROSS MUCH OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY
TODAY AS PWATS ARE LOWER BUT MAINTAINED A SLIGHT AFTERNOON CHANCE
FOR MOSTLY SPOTTY AND SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
GIVEN A SLOWLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS ADJACENT
WATERS.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S NW ZONES TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S ACROSS MCINTOSH COUNTY.

TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE DECREASING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS
INTO SE GEORGIA ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS
ACROSS SE GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
MODELS INDICATE PWATS WILL SURGE ABOVE 2.3 INCHES THUS WE
BUMPED POPS UP A BIT SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT REGARDING
ORIENTATION/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...IN GENERAL THE SCENARIO FAVORS
A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT OF POPS...WITH A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 50
PERCENT SOUTH OF I-16. PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AND WEAK LOW/MID
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS THIS AREA...AND LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER80S/LOWER 90S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE REGARDING THIS SCENARIO. THE 01/00Z EURO
MAINTAINS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AND PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WHILE THE
01/00Z GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM DEPICT AN ELONGATED AXIS
OF VORTICITY WHICH PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE
LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS DECREASING POPS WITH TIME...WITH OVERNIGHT
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE MID/UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL POPS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAX HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 98-102F WILL BE COMMON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. POPS ARE
LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT EVEN THESE POPS COULD PROVE TO BE A
BIT HIGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...POPS ARE LIMITED TO COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST...EVEN AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND/OR WEST...DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. POPS SHOULD
INCREASE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WILL BE
COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BECOME A DEEPER AT KSAV LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AT KSAV ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITIES ARE RATHER LOW
AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW
FAVORING A MAINLY SSE TO SSW COMPONENT AFTER A FAIRLY VARIABLE
EARLY MORNING REGIME. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 3
FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

THROUGH LATE WEEK...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE
TO WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY THE SEA AND LAND BREEZES. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE INCREASING NE WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 011131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG
MOISTURE GRADIENT ON IT/S NORTH FLANK ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY N LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SINCE THIS MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...A SERIES OF MOSTLY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS MOVING ACROSS WILL PROBABLY NOT BUCKLE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THE PATTERN SHOULD INTRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SE GEORGIA ALONG
AND THE COAST AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16 TODAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW
DOWNPOURS CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WITH CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MEAGER TO THE SOUTH.

ACROSS MUCH OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY
TODAY AS PWATS ARE LOWER BUT MAINTAINED A SLIGHT AFTERNOON CHANCE
FOR MOSTLY SPOTTY AND SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
GIVEN A SLOWLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS ADJACENT
WATERS.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S NW ZONES TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S ACROSS MCINTOSH COUNTY.

TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE DECREASING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS
INTO SE GEORGIA ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS
ACROSS SE GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
MODELS INDICATE PWATS WILL SURGE ABOVE 2.3 INCHES THUS WE
BUMPED POPS UP A BIT SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT REGARDING
ORIENTATION/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...IN GENERAL THE SCENARIO FAVORS
A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT OF POPS...WITH A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 50
PERCENT SOUTH OF I-16. PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AND WEAK LOW/MID
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS THIS AREA...AND LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER80S/LOWER 90S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE REGARDING THIS SCENARIO. THE 01/00Z EURO
MAINTAINS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AND PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WHILE THE
01/00Z GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM DEPICT AN ELONGATED AXIS
OF VORTICITY WHICH PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE
LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS DECREASING POPS WITH TIME...WITH OVERNIGHT
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE MID/UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL POPS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAX HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 98-102F WILL BE COMMON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. POPS ARE
LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT EVEN THESE POPS COULD PROVE TO BE A
BIT HIGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...POPS ARE LIMITED TO COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST...EVEN AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND/OR WEST...DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. POPS SHOULD
INCREASE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WILL BE
COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BECOME A DEEPER AT KSAV LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AT KSAV ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITIES ARE RATHER LOW
AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW
FAVORING A MAINLY SSE TO SSW COMPONENT AFTER A FAIRLY VARIABLE
EARLY MORNING REGIME. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 3
FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

THROUGH LATE WEEK...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE
TO WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY THE SEA AND LAND BREEZES. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE INCREASING NE WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KFFC 011105 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
705 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RATHER QUIET WEATHER ALL IN ALL.
THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BUILT SOME OVER THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OVER SE GA AND GETS CLOSE
TO SOME OF THE COUNTIES SE OF MCN WHERE 20-30 PERCENT POPS WILL
BE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
AND SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME INCREASED
INSTABILITY OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS AS WELL GIVING THE POSSIBILITY
FOR AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR STORM. AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AS OVERALL INSTABILITY IS
WEAK.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS SOME. THE SE
SURFACE TROUGH IS CLOSER TO CENTRAL GA SO POPS ARE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER
AND OVER A LARGER PORTION OF CENTRAL GA...AND ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NE
MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND NORMAL TODAY AND
NEAR TO 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

BDL

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE LONG TERM BEGINS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFULLY. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS TO OUR
WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE BIGGEST INFLUENCE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL
PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN
WITH LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE
PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY IFR-MVFR VSBYS UNTIL
12-14Z. SCT-BKN 4000-5000 CU DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
VARIABLE 6 KTS OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR WIND DIRECTION.
LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR ANY AFTERNOON CEILINGS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OTHER ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  90  71 /  10   5  10  10
ATLANTA         88  72  90  73 /  10   5  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     84  64  85  65 /  30   5  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    88  68  90  69 /  10   5  10  10
COLUMBUS        90  73  91  74 /  10   5  20  10
GAINESVILLE     87  70  89  71 /  10   5  10  10
MACON           89  71  91  72 /  10   5  20  10
ROME            88  68  90  69 /  10   5  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  88  69  90  70 /  10   5  10  10
VIDALIA         90  73  90  73 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BDL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 011105 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
705 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RATHER QUIET WEATHER ALL IN ALL.
THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BUILT SOME OVER THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OVER SE GA AND GETS CLOSE
TO SOME OF THE COUNTIES SE OF MCN WHERE 20-30 PERCENT POPS WILL
BE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
AND SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME INCREASED
INSTABILITY OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS AS WELL GIVING THE POSSIBILITY
FOR AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR STORM. AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AS OVERALL INSTABILITY IS
WEAK.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS SOME. THE SE
SURFACE TROUGH IS CLOSER TO CENTRAL GA SO POPS ARE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER
AND OVER A LARGER PORTION OF CENTRAL GA...AND ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NE
MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND NORMAL TODAY AND
NEAR TO 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

BDL

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE LONG TERM BEGINS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFULLY. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS TO OUR
WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE BIGGEST INFLUENCE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL
PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN
WITH LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE
PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY IFR-MVFR VSBYS UNTIL
12-14Z. SCT-BKN 4000-5000 CU DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
VARIABLE 6 KTS OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR WIND DIRECTION.
LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR ANY AFTERNOON CEILINGS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OTHER ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  90  71 /  10   5  10  10
ATLANTA         88  72  90  73 /  10   5  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     84  64  85  65 /  30   5  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    88  68  90  69 /  10   5  10  10
COLUMBUS        90  73  91  74 /  10   5  20  10
GAINESVILLE     87  70  89  71 /  10   5  10  10
MACON           89  71  91  72 /  10   5  20  10
ROME            88  68  90  69 /  10   5  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  88  69  90  70 /  10   5  10  10
VIDALIA         90  73  90  73 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BDL



000
FXUS62 KFFC 011105 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
705 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RATHER QUIET WEATHER ALL IN ALL.
THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BUILT SOME OVER THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OVER SE GA AND GETS CLOSE
TO SOME OF THE COUNTIES SE OF MCN WHERE 20-30 PERCENT POPS WILL
BE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
AND SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME INCREASED
INSTABILITY OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS AS WELL GIVING THE POSSIBILITY
FOR AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR STORM. AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AS OVERALL INSTABILITY IS
WEAK.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS SOME. THE SE
SURFACE TROUGH IS CLOSER TO CENTRAL GA SO POPS ARE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER
AND OVER A LARGER PORTION OF CENTRAL GA...AND ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NE
MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND NORMAL TODAY AND
NEAR TO 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

BDL

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE LONG TERM BEGINS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFULLY. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS TO OUR
WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE BIGGEST INFLUENCE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL
PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN
WITH LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE
PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY IFR-MVFR VSBYS UNTIL
12-14Z. SCT-BKN 4000-5000 CU DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
VARIABLE 6 KTS OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR WIND DIRECTION.
LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR ANY AFTERNOON CEILINGS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OTHER ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  90  71 /  10   5  10  10
ATLANTA         88  72  90  73 /  10   5  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     84  64  85  65 /  30   5  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    88  68  90  69 /  10   5  10  10
COLUMBUS        90  73  91  74 /  10   5  20  10
GAINESVILLE     87  70  89  71 /  10   5  10  10
MACON           89  71  91  72 /  10   5  20  10
ROME            88  68  90  69 /  10   5  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  88  69  90  70 /  10   5  10  10
VIDALIA         90  73  90  73 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BDL



000
FXUS62 KFFC 011105 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
705 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RATHER QUIET WEATHER ALL IN ALL.
THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BUILT SOME OVER THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OVER SE GA AND GETS CLOSE
TO SOME OF THE COUNTIES SE OF MCN WHERE 20-30 PERCENT POPS WILL
BE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
AND SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME INCREASED
INSTABILITY OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS AS WELL GIVING THE POSSIBILITY
FOR AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR STORM. AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AS OVERALL INSTABILITY IS
WEAK.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS SOME. THE SE
SURFACE TROUGH IS CLOSER TO CENTRAL GA SO POPS ARE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER
AND OVER A LARGER PORTION OF CENTRAL GA...AND ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NE
MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND NORMAL TODAY AND
NEAR TO 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

BDL

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE LONG TERM BEGINS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFULLY. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS TO OUR
WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE BIGGEST INFLUENCE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL
PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN
WITH LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE
PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY IFR-MVFR VSBYS UNTIL
12-14Z. SCT-BKN 4000-5000 CU DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
VARIABLE 6 KTS OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR WIND DIRECTION.
LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR ANY AFTERNOON CEILINGS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OTHER ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  90  71 /  10   5  10  10
ATLANTA         88  72  90  73 /  10   5  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     84  64  85  65 /  30   5  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    88  68  90  69 /  10   5  10  10
COLUMBUS        90  73  91  74 /  10   5  20  10
GAINESVILLE     87  70  89  71 /  10   5  10  10
MACON           89  71  91  72 /  10   5  20  10
ROME            88  68  90  69 /  10   5  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  88  69  90  70 /  10   5  10  10
VIDALIA         90  73  90  73 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BDL




000
FXUS62 KCAE 010903
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
503 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.
INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPPER AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST FURTHER OFFSHORE THE NC COAST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR
SE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...WHILE CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER
THE MIDWEST. UPPER ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH
OVER FLORIDA PROGGED TO CONTINUE ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA). MODELS PROG A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED SOUTH.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY AND CAPPED
CONDITIONS FOR OUR FA...APPEARING TO SUPPRESS THUNDER...THOUGH
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT INDICATING PREMISE FOR SOME
SHALLOW DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...REMAINING SOUTH
OF OUR FA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT
CHANCE MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
31/12Z ECMWF SHIFTS UPPER CLOSED LOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST
EAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE 01/00Z GFS KEEPS THAT UPPER LOW TO
OUR WEST BUT INDICATES UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CUTTING OFF AND SHIFTING WEST INTO OUR REGION. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING INTO OUR REGION WITH AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ACCEPT BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING FORECAST WHICH
GENERALLY INDICATES CHANCE POPS...AND MAX TEMPS TRENDING DOWN
SOME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A RELATIVE DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY.

STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR FOG AT AGS/OGB THROUGH 14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY 14Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 010903
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
503 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.
INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPPER AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST FURTHER OFFSHORE THE NC COAST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR
SE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...WHILE CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER
THE MIDWEST. UPPER ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH
OVER FLORIDA PROGGED TO CONTINUE ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA). MODELS PROG A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED SOUTH.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY AND CAPPED
CONDITIONS FOR OUR FA...APPEARING TO SUPPRESS THUNDER...THOUGH
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT INDICATING PREMISE FOR SOME
SHALLOW DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...REMAINING SOUTH
OF OUR FA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT
CHANCE MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
31/12Z ECMWF SHIFTS UPPER CLOSED LOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST
EAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE 01/00Z GFS KEEPS THAT UPPER LOW TO
OUR WEST BUT INDICATES UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CUTTING OFF AND SHIFTING WEST INTO OUR REGION. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING INTO OUR REGION WITH AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ACCEPT BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING FORECAST WHICH
GENERALLY INDICATES CHANCE POPS...AND MAX TEMPS TRENDING DOWN
SOME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A RELATIVE DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY.

STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR FOG AT AGS/OGB THROUGH 14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY 14Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 010903
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
503 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.
INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPPER AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST FURTHER OFFSHORE THE NC COAST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR
SE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...WHILE CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER
THE MIDWEST. UPPER ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH
OVER FLORIDA PROGGED TO CONTINUE ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA). MODELS PROG A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED SOUTH.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY AND CAPPED
CONDITIONS FOR OUR FA...APPEARING TO SUPPRESS THUNDER...THOUGH
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT INDICATING PREMISE FOR SOME
SHALLOW DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...REMAINING SOUTH
OF OUR FA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT
CHANCE MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
31/12Z ECMWF SHIFTS UPPER CLOSED LOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST
EAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE 01/00Z GFS KEEPS THAT UPPER LOW TO
OUR WEST BUT INDICATES UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CUTTING OFF AND SHIFTING WEST INTO OUR REGION. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING INTO OUR REGION WITH AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ACCEPT BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING FORECAST WHICH
GENERALLY INDICATES CHANCE POPS...AND MAX TEMPS TRENDING DOWN
SOME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A RELATIVE DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY.

STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR FOG AT AGS/OGB THROUGH 14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY 14Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 010903
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
503 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.
INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPPER AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST FURTHER OFFSHORE THE NC COAST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR
SE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...WHILE CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER
THE MIDWEST. UPPER ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH
OVER FLORIDA PROGGED TO CONTINUE ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA). MODELS PROG A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED SOUTH.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY AND CAPPED
CONDITIONS FOR OUR FA...APPEARING TO SUPPRESS THUNDER...THOUGH
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT INDICATING PREMISE FOR SOME
SHALLOW DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...REMAINING SOUTH
OF OUR FA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT
CHANCE MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
31/12Z ECMWF SHIFTS UPPER CLOSED LOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST
EAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE 01/00Z GFS KEEPS THAT UPPER LOW TO
OUR WEST BUT INDICATES UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CUTTING OFF AND SHIFTING WEST INTO OUR REGION. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING INTO OUR REGION WITH AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ACCEPT BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING FORECAST WHICH
GENERALLY INDICATES CHANCE POPS...AND MAX TEMPS TRENDING DOWN
SOME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A RELATIVE DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY.

STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR FOG AT AGS/OGB THROUGH 14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY 14Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 010825
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
425 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA EARLY
THIS MORNING. A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS HAD SETTLED ACROSS MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA ALONG TO THE NORTH OF I-16 IN GEORGIA. TEMPS HAD
COOLED DOWN QUITE A BIT OVER INLAND AREAS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND WE SUSPECT WE WILL SEE AREAS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG COASTAL GEORGIA
TO THE SOUTH OF SAVANNAH AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS AROUND DARIEN.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ADVANCING A BIT FURTHER BY
DAYBREAK...FAVORING NEAR COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF TYBEE ISLAND.

THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG
MOISTURE GRADIENT ON IT/S NORTH FLANK ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SINCE THIS MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...A SERIES OF MOSTLY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS MOVING ACROSS WILL PROBABLY NOT BUCKLE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THE PATTERN SHOULD INTRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SE GEORGIA ALONG
AND THE COAST AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16 TODAY. THERE MAY BE A
FEW DOWNPOURS CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WITH CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MEAGER TO THE SOUTH.

ACROSS MUCH OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY
TODAY AS PWATS ARE LOWER BUT MAINTAINED A SLIGHT AFTERNOON CHANCE
FOR MOSTLY SPOTTY AND SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
GIVEN A SLOWLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS ADJACENT
WATERS.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S NW ZONES TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S ACROSS MCINTOSH COUNTY.

TONIGHT...MODEL INDICATE DECREASING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS
INTO SE GEORGIA ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS
ACROSS SE GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
MODELS INDICATE PWATS WILL SURGE ABOVE 2.3 INCHES THUS WE
BUMPED POPS UP A BIT SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT REGARDING
ORIENTATION/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...IN GENERAL THE SCENARIO FAVORS
A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT OF POPS...WITH A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 50
PERCENT SOUTH OF I-16. PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AND WEAK LOW/MID
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS THIS AREA...AND LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER80S/LOWER 90S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE REGARDING THIS SCENARIO. THE 01/00Z EURO
MAINTAINS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AND PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WHILE THE
01/00Z GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM DEPICT AN ELONGATED AXIS
OF VORTICITY WHICH PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE
LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS DECREASING POPS WITH TIME...WITH OVERNIGHT
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE MID/UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL POPS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAX HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 98-102F WILL BE COMMON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. POPS ARE
LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT EVEN THESE POPS COULD PROVE TO BE A
BIT HIGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...POPS ARE LIMITED TO COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST...EVEN AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND/OR WEST...DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. POPS SHOULD
INCREASE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WILL BE
COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS MAINTAINED FOR NEXT 24 HRS AT BOTH TERMINALS.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR STRATUS OR FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS. ALREADY MIFG AROUND THE
KCHS TERMINAL HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...SYNOPTIC SIGNALS DO NOT FAVOR
DENSE FOG BY DAWN. WE DID MAINTAIN 6 MILES VSBY AT BOTH SITES
OVERNIGHT AND HINTED AT SOME LOWER CEILINGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW
FAVORING A MAINLY SE TO SW COMPONENT AFTER A FAIRLY VARIABLE EARLY
MORNING REGIME. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

THROUGH LATE WEEK...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE
TO WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY THE SEA AND LAND BREEZES. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE INCREASING NE WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 010825
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
425 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA EARLY
THIS MORNING. A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS HAD SETTLED ACROSS MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA ALONG TO THE NORTH OF I-16 IN GEORGIA. TEMPS HAD
COOLED DOWN QUITE A BIT OVER INLAND AREAS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND WE SUSPECT WE WILL SEE AREAS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG COASTAL GEORGIA
TO THE SOUTH OF SAVANNAH AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS AROUND DARIEN.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ADVANCING A BIT FURTHER BY
DAYBREAK...FAVORING NEAR COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF TYBEE ISLAND.

THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG
MOISTURE GRADIENT ON IT/S NORTH FLANK ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SINCE THIS MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...A SERIES OF MOSTLY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS MOVING ACROSS WILL PROBABLY NOT BUCKLE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THE PATTERN SHOULD INTRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SE GEORGIA ALONG
AND THE COAST AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16 TODAY. THERE MAY BE A
FEW DOWNPOURS CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WITH CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MEAGER TO THE SOUTH.

ACROSS MUCH OF SE SOUTH CAROLINA...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY
TODAY AS PWATS ARE LOWER BUT MAINTAINED A SLIGHT AFTERNOON CHANCE
FOR MOSTLY SPOTTY AND SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
GIVEN A SLOWLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS ADJACENT
WATERS.

HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S NW ZONES TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S ACROSS MCINTOSH COUNTY.

TONIGHT...MODEL INDICATE DECREASING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS
INTO SE GEORGIA ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS
ACROSS SE GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
MODELS INDICATE PWATS WILL SURGE ABOVE 2.3 INCHES THUS WE
BUMPED POPS UP A BIT SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT REGARDING
ORIENTATION/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...IN GENERAL THE SCENARIO FAVORS
A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT OF POPS...WITH A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 50
PERCENT SOUTH OF I-16. PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AND WEAK LOW/MID
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS THIS AREA...AND LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER80S/LOWER 90S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE REGARDING THIS SCENARIO. THE 01/00Z EURO
MAINTAINS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AND PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WHILE THE
01/00Z GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM DEPICT AN ELONGATED AXIS
OF VORTICITY WHICH PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE
LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS DECREASING POPS WITH TIME...WITH OVERNIGHT
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE MID/UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL POPS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAX HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 98-102F WILL BE COMMON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. POPS ARE
LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE...MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT EVEN THESE POPS COULD PROVE TO BE A
BIT HIGH.

THURSDAY NIGHT...POPS ARE LIMITED TO COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST...EVEN AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND/OR WEST...DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. POPS SHOULD
INCREASE INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WILL BE
COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL BUILD SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A
COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP. ALOFT...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP...AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE RELATIVE POSITIONS/STRENGTHS OF
CRITICAL FEATURES INCLUDING THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE PATTERNS. THUS...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...HIGHEST SOUTH AND OVER COASTAL
WATERS...AND NIGHTTIME POPS ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY AS DETAILS EMERGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS MAINTAINED FOR NEXT 24 HRS AT BOTH TERMINALS.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR STRATUS OR FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS. ALREADY MIFG AROUND THE
KCHS TERMINAL HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...SYNOPTIC SIGNALS DO NOT FAVOR
DENSE FOG BY DAWN. WE DID MAINTAIN 6 MILES VSBY AT BOTH SITES
OVERNIGHT AND HINTED AT SOME LOWER CEILINGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW
FAVORING A MAINLY SE TO SW COMPONENT AFTER A FAIRLY VARIABLE EARLY
MORNING REGIME. SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

THROUGH LATE WEEK...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE
TO WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY THE SEA AND LAND BREEZES. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE INCREASING NE WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KFFC 010748
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
348 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RATHER QUIET WEATHER ALL IN ALL.
THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BUILT SOME OVER THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OVER SE GA AND GETS CLOSE
TO SOME OF THE COUNTIES SE OF MCN WHERE 20-30 PERCENT POPS WILL
BE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
AND SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME INCREASED
INSTABILITY OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS AS WELL GIVING THE POSSIBILITY
FOR AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR STORM. AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AS OVERALL INSTABILITY IS
WEAK.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS SOME. THE SE
SURFACE TROUGH IS CLOSER TO CENTRAL GA SO POPS ARE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER
AND OVER A LARGER PORTION OF CENTRAL GA...AND ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NE
MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND NORMAL TODAY AND
NEAR TO 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

BDL


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE LONG TERM BEGINS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFULLY. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS TO OUR
WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE BIGGEST INFLUENCE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL
PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN
WITH LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE
PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

RW


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR VSBYS UNTIL
12-14Z. SCT-BKN 4000-5000 CU DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
HIGHLY VARIABLE 6 KTS OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR WIND DIRECTION.
LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR AFTERNOON CEILINGS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OTHER ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  90  71 /  10  10  30  20
ATLANTA         88  72  90  73 /  10  10  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     84  64  85  65 /  20  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    88  68  90  69 /  10  10  20  20
COLUMBUS        90  73  91  74 /  10  20  20  20
GAINESVILLE     87  70  89  71 /  10  10  30  20
MACON           89  71  91  72 /  20  20  30  20
ROME            88  68  90  69 /  10  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  88  69  90  70 /  10  10  30  20
VIDALIA         90  73  90  73 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BDL



000
FXUS62 KFFC 010748
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
348 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RATHER QUIET WEATHER ALL IN ALL.
THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BUILT SOME OVER THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OVER SE GA AND GETS CLOSE
TO SOME OF THE COUNTIES SE OF MCN WHERE 20-30 PERCENT POPS WILL
BE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
AND SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME INCREASED
INSTABILITY OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS AS WELL GIVING THE POSSIBILITY
FOR AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR STORM. AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AS OVERALL INSTABILITY IS
WEAK.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS SOME. THE SE
SURFACE TROUGH IS CLOSER TO CENTRAL GA SO POPS ARE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER
AND OVER A LARGER PORTION OF CENTRAL GA...AND ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NE
MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND NORMAL TODAY AND
NEAR TO 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

BDL


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE LONG TERM BEGINS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFULLY. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS TO OUR
WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE BIGGEST INFLUENCE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL
PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN
WITH LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE
PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

RW


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR VSBYS UNTIL
12-14Z. SCT-BKN 4000-5000 CU DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
HIGHLY VARIABLE 6 KTS OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR WIND DIRECTION.
LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR AFTERNOON CEILINGS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OTHER ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  90  71 /  10  10  30  20
ATLANTA         88  72  90  73 /  10  10  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     84  64  85  65 /  20  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    88  68  90  69 /  10  10  20  20
COLUMBUS        90  73  91  74 /  10  20  20  20
GAINESVILLE     87  70  89  71 /  10  10  30  20
MACON           89  71  91  72 /  20  20  30  20
ROME            88  68  90  69 /  10  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  88  69  90  70 /  10  10  30  20
VIDALIA         90  73  90  73 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BDL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 010748
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
348 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RATHER QUIET WEATHER ALL IN ALL.
THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BUILT SOME OVER THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OVER SE GA AND GETS CLOSE
TO SOME OF THE COUNTIES SE OF MCN WHERE 20-30 PERCENT POPS WILL
BE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
AND SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME INCREASED
INSTABILITY OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS AS WELL GIVING THE POSSIBILITY
FOR AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR STORM. AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AS OVERALL INSTABILITY IS
WEAK.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS SOME. THE SE
SURFACE TROUGH IS CLOSER TO CENTRAL GA SO POPS ARE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER
AND OVER A LARGER PORTION OF CENTRAL GA...AND ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NE
MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND NORMAL TODAY AND
NEAR TO 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

BDL


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE LONG TERM BEGINS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFULLY. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS TO OUR
WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE BIGGEST INFLUENCE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL
PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN
WITH LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE
PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

RW


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR VSBYS UNTIL
12-14Z. SCT-BKN 4000-5000 CU DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
HIGHLY VARIABLE 6 KTS OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR WIND DIRECTION.
LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR AFTERNOON CEILINGS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OTHER ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  90  71 /  10  10  30  20
ATLANTA         88  72  90  73 /  10  10  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     84  64  85  65 /  20  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    88  68  90  69 /  10  10  20  20
COLUMBUS        90  73  91  74 /  10  20  20  20
GAINESVILLE     87  70  89  71 /  10  10  30  20
MACON           89  71  91  72 /  20  20  30  20
ROME            88  68  90  69 /  10  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  88  69  90  70 /  10  10  30  20
VIDALIA         90  73  90  73 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BDL



000
FXUS62 KFFC 010748
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
348 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RATHER QUIET WEATHER ALL IN ALL.
THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BUILT SOME OVER THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OVER SE GA AND GETS CLOSE
TO SOME OF THE COUNTIES SE OF MCN WHERE 20-30 PERCENT POPS WILL
BE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
AND SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME INCREASED
INSTABILITY OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS AS WELL GIVING THE POSSIBILITY
FOR AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR STORM. AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AS OVERALL INSTABILITY IS
WEAK.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS SOME. THE SE
SURFACE TROUGH IS CLOSER TO CENTRAL GA SO POPS ARE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER
AND OVER A LARGER PORTION OF CENTRAL GA...AND ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NE
MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND NORMAL TODAY AND
NEAR TO 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

BDL


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE LONG TERM BEGINS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFULLY. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. A BIT MORE COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS TO OUR
WEST...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE BIGGEST INFLUENCE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE WEDGE THAT WILL
PUSH DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO OUR AREA FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN
WITH LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MORE
PRECIP COVERAGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

RW


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR VSBYS UNTIL
12-14Z. SCT-BKN 4000-5000 CU DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
HIGHLY VARIABLE 6 KTS OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR WIND DIRECTION.
LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR AFTERNOON CEILINGS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OTHER ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  90  71 /  10  10  30  20
ATLANTA         88  72  90  73 /  10  10  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     84  64  85  65 /  20  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    88  68  90  69 /  10  10  20  20
COLUMBUS        90  73  91  74 /  10  20  20  20
GAINESVILLE     87  70  89  71 /  10  10  30  20
MACON           89  71  91  72 /  20  20  30  20
ROME            88  68  90  69 /  10  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  88  69  90  70 /  10  10  30  20
VIDALIA         90  73  90  73 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BDL




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