Home > Products > State Listing > Georgia Data
Latest:
 AFDFFC |  AFDCHS |  AFDCAE |
  [top]

000
FXUS62 KFFC 300128
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
928 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...

HAS BEEN A NIGHT OF A SERIES OF UPDATES TO THE GRIDS AS HI RES
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. ALL
YOU REALLY NEED TO DO IS FOLLOW THE CAPE GRADIENT TO NIGHT AS
STORMS HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE BULLS EYE. WE STILL HAVE AN
INCREDIBLE AMOUNT OF ENERGY JUST TO OUR WEST BUT A SHARP GRADIENT
TO MINIMAL VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. SO THE BIG
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH STAYING POWER DOES THIS COMPLEX HAVE AND HOW
FAR WILL IT EXTEND INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA. FEELING AT THIS
POINT IS WE WILL INDEED HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY FROM TROUP THROUGH
MUSCOGEE AND A COUNTY OR TWO EASTWARD AND HAVE LIKELY POPS THERE.
OTHERWISE...WILL RAMP DOWN POPS QUICKLY AFTER 05Z WITH JUST A
PERSISTENT HIGH CLOUD SHIELD FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT.

&&

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW BUT THINGS WILL
CHANGE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWS WAVE MOVING ACROSS LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW BACK ACROSS TX.
THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES ACROSS AL AND INTO NW
GA LATER THIS EVENING. THE HIGH-RES MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO W GA TONIGHT
THEN DIMINISHING. THINGS PICK BACK UP SAT AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO NW GA WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
EXPECTING MAINLY SHRA/TSRA SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND HAIL. WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER BUT COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS NORTH GA WERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT BUT
DIMINISH A BIT IN INTENSITY AS WE LOOS THE DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS SAT
IN THE 870S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. SEE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

17

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... GREATEST PRECIP
CHANCES STILL LOOKING TO BE SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS DYNAMIC SETUP PUSHES SEVERAL DISTURBANCES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...FORECAST CHALLENGE
CONTINUES TO BE THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ENVIRONMENTAL
INSTABILITY... WITH SHEAR PARAMETERS STILL LOOKING LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH DECENT LAPSE RATES ARE POSSIBLE. WILL STILL
NEED TO MONITOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST TO
DETERMINE IF INTERACTION WILL BE A MAIN PLAYER ON ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE STATE...AND WHETHER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP INSTABILITY LEVELS
LOW. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGENT IN HANDLING SHORTWAVE IMPACTING THE REGION.
FOR NOW...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS /CHANCE POPS/ AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE LARGE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS
FORECAST CHANCE WAS WE GET CLOSER.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IN THE SHORT TERM.

31

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH ALABAMA WITH THE FUEL NECESSARY FOR MAINTENANCE OF THESE
STORMS IN PLACE FOR WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA. SUCH IS NOT THE CASE
HOWEVER FOR THE ATL TERMINALS AND STILL EXPECT ALL ACTIVITY TO
DISSIPATE PRIOR TO ARRIVAL ALTHOUGH IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. OTHERWISE...A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA ON SAT
REQUIRING A PROB30 FOR ALL BUT MCN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          61  87  64  81 /  10  30  60  60
ATLANTA         66  84  66  79 /  20  30  60  60
BLAIRSVILLE     57  81  61  76 /  20  50  70  70
CARTERSVILLE    62  84  64  80 /  30  30  60  70
COLUMBUS        66  87  67  84 /  50  20  40  50
GAINESVILLE     62  83  64  78 /  10  30  60  60
MACON           64  88  66  84 /  20  20  40  50
ROME            60  83  64  80 /  30  40  70  70
PEACHTREE CITY  61  85  63  81 /  30  30  50  60
VIDALIA         67  89  68  85 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...KOVACIK



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCAE 300007
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
807 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY ALLOWING A MOISTURE
INCREASE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION PREVENTING
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE WEST
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE THERE MAY BE LESS
CLOUD COVERAGE AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
HOWEVER CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE HRRR MAY BE UNDERDONE WHICH WOULD
LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION A 20 KT LLJ WILL PROMOTE SOME
LOWER LEVEL MIXING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
REINFORCING A BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WARM
ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASED MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE UPSTATE. A NUMBER OF
HI RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE UPSTATE AS WELL AS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
NC. THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE NORTHERN AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION WOULD TEND TO MOVE E/NE IN THE
STEERING FLOW BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FURTHER INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE
REMNANTS OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN THE
LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION WHICH INCREASES UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S MOST
EVERYWHERE...POSSIBLY A LITTLE COOLER FAR NORTH AS THE MORNING
HEATING WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MEAN FLOW AT MID LEVELS BEING WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY...THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD DRIFT OVER THE CWA
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS/TSTORMS A THREAT ALL
NIGHT. PWS WILL BE INCREASING TO >1.5 INCHES...BUT THE MAIN JET AT
UPPER LEVELS REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAINLY INDUCED BE EARLIER CONVECTION...SO I
HAVE NOT GONE AS HIGH AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST FOR POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 60S WITH
CLOUDS SUPPRESSING THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

.SUNDAY...SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...A CLEAR
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LACKING OVER THE CWA...AND
THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN
SATURDAY...LIMITING THE INSTABILITY. I HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT AGAIN AM LEANING TOWARD LOWER GUIDANCE
VALUES.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PATTERN. THERE
MAYBE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS ANOTHER FRONT
TRIES TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY. PWS MAY ALSO DROP A BIT...BUT THAT MEANS A
LITTLE BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN...PRODUCING SOME MODEST LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS
APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
JET WHICH WILL BE HELD OFF TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
FINALLY STARTS TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
DEVELOPS IN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THERE IS SOME GLOBAL MODEL TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH HOW FAST THE UPPER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS A SURFACE
LOW WHICH DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. THE 12Z GFS QUICKLY
RACES THE SYSTEM THROUGH AND BRINGS COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN FOR
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE POLAR AIR
MASS IN UNTIL THURSDAY. THEREFORE...I HAVE KEPT SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN DEFERENCE TO THE ECMWF. IN
EITHER CASE...A MODIFIED POLAR AIR MASS SHOULD MOVE IN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVERSPREADING THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING.

GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES
IN PATCHY FOG AT THE TERMINALS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT IMPACT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON FOG
FORMATION. HAVE INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG AT KAGS/KOGB
FROM 09-14Z...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM DOING SO AT THE OTHER TERMINALS
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
COULD CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MONDAY. EARLY
MORNING LOW CIGS LOOK POSSIBLE AT ALL THE TERMINALS SUNDAY/MONDAY
MORNING WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAINING
LIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
SEEM TO BE IN LINE FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY IT BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN
DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 292356
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
756 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW BUT THINGS WILL
CHANGE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWS WAVE MOVING ACROSS LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW BACK ACROSS TX.
THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES ACROSS AL AND INTO NW
GA LATER THIS EVENING. THE HIGH-RES MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO W GA TONIGHT
THEN DIMINISHING. THINGS PICK BACK UP SAT AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO NW GA WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
EXPECTING MAINLY SHRA/TSRA SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND HAIL. WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER BUT COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS NORTH GA WERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT BUT
DIMINISH A BIT IN INTENSITY AS WE LOOS THE DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS SAT
IN THE 870S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. SEE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

17

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... GREATEST PRECIP
CHANCES STILL LOOKING TO BE SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS DYNAMIC SETUP PUSHES SEVERAL DISTURBANCES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...FORECAST CHALLENGE
CONTINUES TO BE THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ENVIRONMENTAL
INSTABILITY... WITH SHEAR PARAMETERS STILL LOOKING LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH DECENT LAPSE RATES ARE POSSIBLE. WILL STILL
NEED TO MONITOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST TO
DETERMINE IF INTERACTION WILL BE A MAIN PLAYER ON ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE STATE...AND WHETHER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP INSTABILITY LEVELS
LOW. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGENT IN HANDLING SHORTWAVE IMPACTING THE REGION.
FOR NOW...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS /CHANCE POPS/ AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE LARGE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS
FORECAST CHANCE WAS WE GET CLOSER.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IN THE SHORT TERM.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH ALABAMA WITH THE FUEL NECESSARY FOR MAINTENANCE OF THESE
STORMS IN PLACE FOR WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA. SUCH IS NOT THE CASE
HOWEVER FOR THE ATL TERMINALS AND STILL EXPECT ALL ACTIVITY TO
DISSIPATE PRIOR TO ARRIVAL ALTHOUGH IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. OTHERWISE...A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA ON SAT
REQUIRING A PROB30 FOR ALL BUT MCN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          61  87  64  81 /  10  30  60  60
ATLANTA         66  84  66  79 /  20  30  60  60
BLAIRSVILLE     57  81  61  76 /  20  50  70  70
CARTERSVILLE    62  84  64  80 /  30  30  60  70
COLUMBUS        66  87  67  84 /  20  20  40  50
GAINESVILLE     62  83  64  78 /  10  30  60  60
MACON           64  88  66  84 /  10  20  40  50
ROME            60  83  64  80 /  30  40  70  70
PEACHTREE CITY  61  85  63  81 /  20  30  50  60
VIDALIA         67  89  68  85 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCHS 292238
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
638 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY...
THEN WILL PULL FARTHER NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE DISTANT NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A
DEVELOPING LOW WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK. ADJUSTED
HOURLY TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS MAINLY TO UPDATE
PROGRESS/IMPACTS OF THE SEAS BREEZE WHICH WAS PROGRESSING
STEADILY INLAND/TOWARD THE NW.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT. EXPECT ONLY HIGH CLOUDS/CIRRUS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. GIVEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE THERE COULD BE SOME GROUND FOG LATER TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...A WEDGE-TYPE FRONT WILL LIE IN NORTHERN SC AND DIPS A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND
AND BRIDGES ACROSS THE FRONT TO NEAR THE BAHAMAS. RETURN FLOW FROM
THE SE AND SOUTH AROUND THE HIGH WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY WITH FAR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SINCE WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT HOW MUCH CIRRUS
OUTFLOW THERE WILL BE FROM THE HUGE COMPLEX OF CONVECTION THAT WAS
ONGOING TODAY IN TN/MS VALLEY WE HAVEN/T GONE AS WARM AS THE LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS FORECAST. WE/LL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE AND
SHOW MAX TEMPS UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S INLAND FROM US-17...AND WITH AN
ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW AND AN EARLIER START TO THE SEA BREEZE THE
COASTAL REGIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AT BEST.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE LACK OF ANY FOCUSING
MECHANISM OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE...AND LIMITED MOISTURE. PLUS
THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND AT LEAST SOME CAP TO
REMAIN IN PLACE. OUR FORECAST THUS SHOWS NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY FAR WEST/NW ZONES.

ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO THE NIGHT FAR INLAND AS THE
MEAN FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST COULD ALLOW FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO
SLIDE IN DURING THE NIGHT. DEBRIS CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE A VERY WARM NIGHT...WITH LOWS AT BEST 65-70
OR ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THE SECOND DAY OF THE
WEEKEND...THEN BECOMES ABSORBED BY NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY BY
MONDAY.THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH/NW
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GENERALLY A ZONAL FLOW TO PREVAIL LOCALLY. AT
THE SURFACE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...THEN PASSES OFF THE DELMARVA AND TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY WILL BE FORCED EAST AS THIS OCCURS...BUT IT/S
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ATTEMPTS TO HOLD ON LOCALLY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THE LOW WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST SUNDAY...MAKING IT TO NEAR
THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDS ON. BOTH DAYS
WILL EXPERIENCE A CONTINUATION OF UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SOME 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER HOW WARM WE
DO GET IS GEARED TOWARD THE INITIATION OF DIURNAL CONVECTION...SO
FOR NOW WE HAVE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID AND UPPER 60S
FOR LOWS.

WHILE THERE ARE SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES THAT TRAVERSE THE
REGION...OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT IS MISSING OUTSIDE OF THE SEA
BREEZE AND MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES THAT ARE ABLE TO FORM. AN INCREASE
IN INSTABILITY AND CAPE...MODEST UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES AND
ADEQUATE LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED RISK FOR MAINLY
DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. WE/LL CAP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE BUT WITH PWATS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN
NORMAL THERE COULD BE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RISK.

THE SEVERE CHANCES ARE VERY LOW BUT NON-ZERO WITH DCAPES OF 1000-
1200 J/KG SUGGESTING A STRONG WIND THREAT. PLUS 500 MB TEMPS ARE AS
COLD AS -11/-12C AND CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE IS ALSO FAVORABLE
FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE LOW
ENOUGH WHERE THERE IS NO NEED TO INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK AT THIS STAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS HAS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW
DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL PASS OVER OR
NEAR US WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THE
00Z ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...INSTEAD IT HAS UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER OUR
AREA...ORIGINATING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTH TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR US TUESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLY ANOTHER LOW ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON THURSDAY. THE 00Z CANADIAN HAS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY...PASSING TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THAT. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...OPTED TO GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY CHANCE POPS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WE START DRYING OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN GROUND FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT INCLUDED
WITHIN 00Z TAFS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
IN SHRA/TSRA AT THE LOCAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN S/SE WINDS MAINLY 10 KT
OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-2 FT TONIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN LARGE
SCALE FEATURE THAT PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE COULD IMPACT THE WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THERE ARE NO REAL CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO WINDS
AND SEAS...WITH NO ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. EVEN WITH SOME
BOOST OF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 12-18
KT AND SEAS WON/T GET ANY HIGHER THAN 3 OR 4 FT.

HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
WILL BE ON THE RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK...PEAKING IN THE CHANCE RANGE
LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. REMEMBER TO HAVE A SAFE
BOATING PLAN IN PLACE BEFORE YOU SET OUT JUST IN CASE YOU DO
ENCOUNTER STORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KSAV TIED 29 APRIL RECORD OF 93F...LAST SET IN 2002

RECORD HIGHS FOR 30 APRIL...
KCHS 91/1990 AND PREVIOUS...
KCXM 88/1987 AND PREVIOUS...
KSAV 93/1990 AND PREVIOUS...

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE. AN ESTIMATED TIME FOR DATA
RESTORATION IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL/SPR
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...33/JRL/SPR
MARINE...33/JRL/SPR
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 292001
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
401 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY...
THEN PULL FARTHER NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE DISTANT NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A
DEVELOPING LOW WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT. A WEAK SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED WITH DEWPOINTS BEGINNING
TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S AT COASTAL LOCALES. OTHER THAN SOME
THIN CIRRUS WE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET. GIVEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THERE
COULD BE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATER TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...A WEDGE-TYPE FRONT WILL LIE IN NORTHERN SC AND DIPS A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND
AND BRIDGES ACROSS THE FRONT TO NEAR THE BAHAMAS. RETURN FLOW FROM
THE SE AND SOUTH AROUND THE HIGH WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY WITH FAR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SINCE WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT HOW MUCH CIRRUS
OUTFLOW THERE WILL BE FROM THE HUGE COMPLEX OF CONVECTION THAT WAS
ONGOING TODAY IN TN/MS VALLEY WE HAVEN/T GONE AS WARM AS THE LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS FORECAST. WE/LL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE AND
SHOW MAX TEMPS UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S INLAND FROM US-17...AND WITH AN
ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW AND AN EARLIER START TO THE SEA BREEZE THE
COASTAL REGIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AT BEST.

CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE LACK OF ANY FOCUSING
MECHANISM OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE...AND LIMITED MOISTURE. PLUS
THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND AT LEAST SOME CAP TO
REMAIN IN PLACE. OUR FORECAST THUS SHOWS NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY FAR WEST/NW ZONES.

ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO THE NIGHT FAR INLAND AS THE
MEAN FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST COULD ALLOW FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO
SLIDE IN DURING THE NIGHT. DEBRIS CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE A VERY WARM NIGHT...WITH LOWS AT BEST 65-70
OR ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THE SECOND DAY OF THE
WEEKEND...THEN BECOMES ABSORBED BY NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY BY
MONDAY.THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH/NW
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GENERALLY A ZONAL FLOW TO PREVAIL LOCALLY. AT
THE SURFACE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...THEN PASSES OFF THE DELMARVA AND TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY WILL BE FORCED EAST AS THIS OCCURS...BUT IT/S
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ATTEMPTS TO HOLD ON LOCALLY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THE LOW WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST SUNDAY...MAKING IT TO NEAR
THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDS ON. BOTH DAYS
WILL EXPERIENCE A CONTINUATION OF UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SOME 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER HOW WARM WE
DO GET IS GEARED TOWARD THE INITIATION OF DIURNAL CONVECTION...SO
FOR NOW WE HAVE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID AND UPPER 60S
FOR LOWS.

WHILE THERE ARE SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES THAT TRAVERSE THE
REGION...OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT IS MISSING OUTSIDE OF THE SEA
BREEZE AND MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES THAT ARE ABLE TO FORM. AN INCREASE
IN INSTABILITY AND CAPE...MODEST UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES AND
ADEQUATE LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED RISK FOR MAINLY
DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. WE/LL CAP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE BUT WITH PWATS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS GREATER THAN
NORMAL THERE COULD BE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RISK.

THE SEVERE CHANCES ARE VERY LOW BUT NON-ZERO WITH DCAPES OF 1000-
1200 J/KG SUGGESTING A STRONG WIND THREAT. PLUS 500 MB TEMPS ARE AS
COLD AS -11/-12C AND CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE IS ALSO FAVORABLE
FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE LOW
ENOUGH WHERE THERE IS NO NEED TO INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK AT THIS STAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS HAS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW
DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL PASS OVER OR
NEAR US WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THE
00Z ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...INSTEAD IT HAS UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER OUR
AREA...ORIGINATING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTH TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR US TUESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLY ANOTHER LOW ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON THURSDAY. THE 00Z CANADIAN HAS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY...PASSING TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THAT. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...OPTED TO GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY CHANCE POPS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WE START DRYING OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT DO NOT
EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
IN SHRA/TSRA AT THE LOCAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT WITH
SEAS 1-2 FT TONIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN LARGE
SCALE FEATURE THAT PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE COULD IMPACT THE WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THERE ARE NO REAL CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO WINDS
AND SEAS...WITH NO ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. EVEN WITH SOME
BOOST OF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 12-18
KT AND SEAS WON/T GET ANY HIGHER THAN 3 OR 4 FT.

HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
WILL BE ON THE RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK...PEAKING IN THE CHANCE RANGE
LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. REMEMBER TO HAVE A SAFE
BOATING PLAN IN PLACE BEFORE YOU SET OUT JUST IN CASE YOU DO
ENCOUNTER STORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 29 APRIL...
KCHS 92/2002...
KCXM 92/2002...
KSAV 93/2002...

RECORD HIGHS FOR 30 APRIL...
KCHS 91/1990 AND PREVIOUS...
KCXM 88/1987 AND PREVIOUS...
KSAV 93/1990 AND PREVIOUS...

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE. AN ESTIMATED TIME FOR DATA
RESTORATION IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...33/JRL
MARINE...33/JRL
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291851
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
251 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW BUT THINGS WILL
CHANGE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWS WAVE MOVING ACROSS LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW BACK ACROSS TX.
THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES ACROSS AL AND INTO NW
GA LATER THIS EVENING. THE HIGH-RES MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO W GA TONIGHT
THEN DIMINISHING. THINGS PICK BACK UP SAT AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO NW GA WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
EXPECTING MAINLY SHRA/TSRA SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND HAIL. WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER BUT COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS NORTH GA WERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT BUT
DIMINISH A BIT IN INTENSITY AS WE LOOS THE DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS SAT
IN THE 870S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S.

01


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. SEE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

17

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... GREATEST PRECIP
CHANCES STILL LOOKING TO BE SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS DYNAMIC SETUP PUSHES SEVERAL DISTURBANCES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...FORECAST CHALLENGE
CONTINUES TO BE THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ENVIRONMENTAL
INSTABILITY... WITH SHEAR PARAMETERS STILL LOOKING LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH DECENT LAPSE RATES ARE POSSIBLE. WILL STILL
NEED TO MONITOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST TO
DETERMINE IF INTERACTION WILL BE A MAIN PLAYER ON ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE STATE...AND WHETHER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP INSTABILITY LEVELS
LOW. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGENT IN HANDLING SHORTWAVE IMPACTING THE REGION.
FOR NOW...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS /CHANCE POPS/ AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE LARGE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS
FORECAST CHANCE WAS WE GET CLOSER.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IN THE SHORT TERM.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CROSS THE AREA WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE AREA SAT. WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD BUT WILL SEE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY SOME PRECIP
BETWEEN 18Z AND 24Z SAT. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE RIGHT NOW
BUT THEY ARE BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE NW/W. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN TO THE SW THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH WIND SPEEDS
STAYING 10KT OR LESS. NOT EXPECTING ANY ISSUES WITH VSBYS EXCEPT
IN AND AROUND SHRA/TSRA AFTER 18Z SAT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          61  87  64  81 /   5  30  60  60
ATLANTA         66  84  66  79 /  10  30  60  60
BLAIRSVILLE     57  81  61  76 /  10  50  70  70
CARTERSVILLE    62  84  64  80 /  10  30  60  70
COLUMBUS        66  87  67  84 /  10  20  40  50
GAINESVILLE     62  83  64  78 /  10  30  60  60
MACON           64  88  66  84 /   5  20  40  50
ROME            60  83  64  80 /  20  40  70  70
PEACHTREE CITY  61  85  63  81 /  10  30  50  60
VIDALIA         67  89  68  85 /   5  20  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291836
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
236 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY ALLOWING A MOISTURE
INCREASE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK/DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA INITIALLY...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK MESO-
HIGH. MEANWHILE...A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING IT WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SO WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...DO THINK THAT THE UPSTREAM HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE/THICKEN OVER
THE AREA. SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT ADD MENTION TO THE FORECAST DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT ROLE THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL PLAY IN HINDERING
ITS FORMATION AND THE RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT IT WILL POSE IF IT
DOES FORM. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
.SATURDAY...THE DAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH THE WEDGE FRONT STALLED
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AND VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE FRONT NORTH OF A BISHOPVILLE TO
WINNSBORO LINE...BUT THEY SHOULD THIN OUT DURING THE MORNING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. DESPITE THE LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAPPENING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
INSISTENT THAT THICK CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD THIN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES
EAST OVERNIGHT. I AM NOT BETTING THE FARM ON THAT...SO I KEEP DECENT
CLOUD COVER IN THE GRIDS FOR THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING
THE MORNING.

BY AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S
MOST EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT MAYBE A LITTLE COOLER FAR NORTH AS THE
MORNING HEATING WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
HOWEVER...THE WEDGE FRONT SHOULD RETREAT NORTHWARD BY
AFTERNOON...PLACING THE ENTIRE CWA IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. DEW
POINTS WILL ALSO BE RISING INTO THE 60S...SO INSTABILITY WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE WITH CAPES RISING ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN CWA. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
SPC PUT THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA INTO A MARGINAL RISK
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED AS THERE IS NO DISTINCT FOCUSING MECHANISM IN PLAY TO
PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL LIFT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MEAN FLOW AT MID LEVELS BEING WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY...THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD DRIFT OVER THE CWA
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS/TSTORMS A THREAT ALL
NIGHT. PWS WILL BE INCREASING TO >1.5 INCHES...BUT THE MAIN JET AT
UPPER LEVELS REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAINLY INDUCED BE EARLIER CONVECTION...SO I
HAVE NOT GONE AS HIGH AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST FOR POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 60S WITH
CLOUDS SUPPRESSING THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

.SUNDAY...SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...A CLEAR
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LACKING OVER THE CWA...AND
THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN
SATURDAY...LIMITING THE INSTABILITY. I HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT AGAIN AM LEANING TOWARD LOWER GUIDANCE
VALUES.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PATTERN. THERE
MAYBE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS ANOTHER FRONT
TRIES TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY. PWS MAY ALSO DROP A BIT...BUT THAT MEANS A
LITTLE BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN...PRODUCING SOME MODEST LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS
APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
JET WHICH WILL BE HELD OFF TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
FINALLY STARTS TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
DEVELOPS IN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THERE IS SOME GLOBAL MODEL TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH HOW FAST THE UPPER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS A SURFACE
LOW WHICH DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. THE 12Z GFS QUICKLY
RACES THE SYSTEM THROUGH AND BRINGS COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN FOR
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE POLAR AIR
MASS IN UNTIL THURSDAY. THEREFORE...I HAVE KEPT SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN DEFERENCE TO THE ECMWF. IN
EITHER CASE...A MODIFIED POLAR AIR MASS SHOULD MOVE IN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND/THICKEN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES
IN PATCHY FOG AT THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT IMPACT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
HAVE ON FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS IN
PATCHY FOG AT KAGS/KOGB FROM 09-14Z...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM DOING
SO AT THE OTHER TERMINALS UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND CONVECTION COULD
CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY ISSUES AT THE TERMINALS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY. EARLY MORNING LOW CIGS LOOK POSSIBLE AT ALL THE
TERMINALS SUNDAY/MONDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAINING LIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE IN LINE FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY IT
BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...FWA
LONG TERM...FWA
AVIATION...JAQ/FWA




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291836
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
236 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY ALLOWING A MOISTURE
INCREASE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK/DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA INITIALLY...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK MESO-
HIGH. MEANWHILE...A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING IT WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SO WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...DO THINK THAT THE UPSTREAM HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE/THICKEN OVER
THE AREA. SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT ADD MENTION TO THE FORECAST DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT ROLE THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL PLAY IN HINDERING
ITS FORMATION AND THE RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT IT WILL POSE IF IT
DOES FORM. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
.SATURDAY...THE DAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH THE WEDGE FRONT STALLED
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AND VERY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE FRONT NORTH OF A BISHOPVILLE TO
WINNSBORO LINE...BUT THEY SHOULD THIN OUT DURING THE MORNING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. DESPITE THE LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAPPENING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
INSISTENT THAT THICK CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD THIN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES
EAST OVERNIGHT. I AM NOT BETTING THE FARM ON THAT...SO I KEEP DECENT
CLOUD COVER IN THE GRIDS FOR THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING
THE MORNING.

BY AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S
MOST EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT MAYBE A LITTLE COOLER FAR NORTH AS THE
MORNING HEATING WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
HOWEVER...THE WEDGE FRONT SHOULD RETREAT NORTHWARD BY
AFTERNOON...PLACING THE ENTIRE CWA IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. DEW
POINTS WILL ALSO BE RISING INTO THE 60S...SO INSTABILITY WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE WITH CAPES RISING ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN CWA. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
SPC PUT THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA INTO A MARGINAL RISK
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED AS THERE IS NO DISTINCT FOCUSING MECHANISM IN PLAY TO
PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL LIFT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MEAN FLOW AT MID LEVELS BEING WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY...THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD DRIFT OVER THE CWA
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS/TSTORMS A THREAT ALL
NIGHT. PWS WILL BE INCREASING TO >1.5 INCHES...BUT THE MAIN JET AT
UPPER LEVELS REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAINLY INDUCED BE EARLIER CONVECTION...SO I
HAVE NOT GONE AS HIGH AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST FOR POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 60S WITH
CLOUDS SUPPRESSING THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

.SUNDAY...SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...A CLEAR
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LACKING OVER THE CWA...AND
THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN
SATURDAY...LIMITING THE INSTABILITY. I HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT AGAIN AM LEANING TOWARD LOWER GUIDANCE
VALUES.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PATTERN. THERE
MAYBE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS ANOTHER FRONT
TRIES TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY. PWS MAY ALSO DROP A BIT...BUT THAT MEANS A
LITTLE BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN...PRODUCING SOME MODEST LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS
APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
JET WHICH WILL BE HELD OFF TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
FINALLY STARTS TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
DEVELOPS IN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THERE IS SOME GLOBAL MODEL TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH HOW FAST THE UPPER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS A SURFACE
LOW WHICH DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. THE 12Z GFS QUICKLY
RACES THE SYSTEM THROUGH AND BRINGS COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN FOR
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE POLAR AIR
MASS IN UNTIL THURSDAY. THEREFORE...I HAVE KEPT SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN DEFERENCE TO THE ECMWF. IN
EITHER CASE...A MODIFIED POLAR AIR MASS SHOULD MOVE IN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND/THICKEN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES
IN PATCHY FOG AT THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT IMPACT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
HAVE ON FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS IN
PATCHY FOG AT KAGS/KOGB FROM 09-14Z...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM DOING
SO AT THE OTHER TERMINALS UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND CONVECTION COULD
CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY ISSUES AT THE TERMINALS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY. EARLY MORNING LOW CIGS LOOK POSSIBLE AT ALL THE
TERMINALS SUNDAY/MONDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAINING LIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE IN LINE FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY IT
BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...FWA
LONG TERM...FWA
AVIATION...JAQ/FWA




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291751
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
151 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
TODAY. THE RIDGING SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION TODAY...SO NO POPS
IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE WARM TODAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND NEAR
RECORD VALUES FOR SEVERAL OF THE CLIMATE SITES.

RIDING ALOFT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA. THE WEAK PERTURBATIONS COMBINED
WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS...MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY INTO SATURDAY.

ONCE AGAIN...THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING/COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIP ON SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS LOOK TO BE
ENHANCING PRECIP COVERAGE WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST IN THE
FLOW...AND THESE FEATURES ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO TIME. AT THE
SURFACE...A NEARLY DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY ALSO...PROVIDING SOME FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/EVE STORMS. HAVE
LEFT POPS IN THE ISOLD/SCT RANGE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANITICIPATED.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOKING TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DYNAMIC SETUP
PUSHES SEVERAL DISTURBANCES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. FOR THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM...FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY... WITH SHEAR
PARAMETERS STILL LOOKING LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH DECENT
LAPSE RATES ARE POSSIBLE. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST TO DETERMINE IF INTERACTION WILL
BE A MAIN PLAYER ON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE STATE...AND WHETHER CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP INSTABILITY LEVELS LOW. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE GOOD
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGENT IN HANDLING SHORTWAVE IMPACTING THE REGION.
FOR NOW...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS /CHANCE POPS/ AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE LARGE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS
FORECAST CHANCE WAS WE GET CLOSER.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IN THE SHORT TERM.

31

FIRE WEATHER...
A DRIER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. RH VALUES
WILL DIP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES SHOULD BE AT THEIR LOWEST BETWEEN 2PM AND
6PM. WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT AND GENERALLY AVERAGE LESS THAN 10
MPH.

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 04-29...FRIDAY.

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1915     50 1999     66 1975     38 1973
                                        1970        1928
   KATL      88 1894     47 1934     67 2014     39 1992
                                        1989
                                        1970
   KMCN      92 2012     50 1934     68 1970     37 1992
                                        1914
                                        1912
   KCSG      91 2012     59 1999     71 1970     41 1973

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WINDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...PARTLY BECAUSE
SPEEDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 6KT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NE WINDS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD GO BACK TO THE W/NW WHEN MIXING
BEGINS. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO NEARLY DUE
SOUTH. BRIEF SE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO SW DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
TOMORROW. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CROSS THE AREA WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE AREA SAT. WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD BUT WILL SEE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY SOME PRECIP
BETWEEN 18Z AND 24Z SAT. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE RIGHT NOW
BUT THEY ARE BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE NW/W. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN TO THE SW THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH WIND SPEEDS
STAYING 10KT OR LESS. NOT EXPECTING ANY ISSUES WITH VSBYS EXCEPT
IN AND AROUND SHRA/TSRA AFTER 18Z SAT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  61  86  63 /   0   5  30  60
ATLANTA         88  66  83  65 /   5  10  30  60
BLAIRSVILLE     84  57  80  60 /   0  10  50  70
CARTERSVILLE    87  62  83  63 /   5  10  30  60
COLUMBUS        89  66  86  66 /   5  10  20  40
GAINESVILLE     86  62  82  63 /   0  10  30  60
MACON           90  64  87  65 /   5   5  20  40
ROME            87  60  82  63 /   5  20  40  70
PEACHTREE CITY  88  61  84  62 /   5  10  30  50
VIDALIA         91  67  88  67 /   5   5  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291751
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
151 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
TODAY. THE RIDGING SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION TODAY...SO NO POPS
IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE WARM TODAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND NEAR
RECORD VALUES FOR SEVERAL OF THE CLIMATE SITES.

RIDING ALOFT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA. THE WEAK PERTURBATIONS COMBINED
WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS...MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY INTO SATURDAY.

ONCE AGAIN...THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING/COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIP ON SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS LOOK TO BE
ENHANCING PRECIP COVERAGE WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST IN THE
FLOW...AND THESE FEATURES ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO TIME. AT THE
SURFACE...A NEARLY DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY ALSO...PROVIDING SOME FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/EVE STORMS. HAVE
LEFT POPS IN THE ISOLD/SCT RANGE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANITICIPATED.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOKING TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DYNAMIC SETUP
PUSHES SEVERAL DISTURBANCES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. FOR THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM...FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY... WITH SHEAR
PARAMETERS STILL LOOKING LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH DECENT
LAPSE RATES ARE POSSIBLE. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST TO DETERMINE IF INTERACTION WILL
BE A MAIN PLAYER ON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE STATE...AND WHETHER CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP INSTABILITY LEVELS LOW. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE GOOD
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGENT IN HANDLING SHORTWAVE IMPACTING THE REGION.
FOR NOW...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS /CHANCE POPS/ AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE LARGE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS
FORECAST CHANCE WAS WE GET CLOSER.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IN THE SHORT TERM.

31

FIRE WEATHER...
A DRIER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. RH VALUES
WILL DIP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES SHOULD BE AT THEIR LOWEST BETWEEN 2PM AND
6PM. WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT AND GENERALLY AVERAGE LESS THAN 10
MPH.

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 04-29...FRIDAY.

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1915     50 1999     66 1975     38 1973
                                        1970        1928
   KATL      88 1894     47 1934     67 2014     39 1992
                                        1989
                                        1970
   KMCN      92 2012     50 1934     68 1970     37 1992
                                        1914
                                        1912
   KCSG      91 2012     59 1999     71 1970     41 1973

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WINDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...PARTLY BECAUSE
SPEEDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 6KT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NE WINDS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD GO BACK TO THE W/NW WHEN MIXING
BEGINS. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO NEARLY DUE
SOUTH. BRIEF SE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO SW DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
TOMORROW. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CROSS THE AREA WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE AREA SAT. WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD BUT WILL SEE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY SOME PRECIP
BETWEEN 18Z AND 24Z SAT. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE RIGHT NOW
BUT THEY ARE BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE NW/W. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN TO THE SW THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH WIND SPEEDS
STAYING 10KT OR LESS. NOT EXPECTING ANY ISSUES WITH VSBYS EXCEPT
IN AND AROUND SHRA/TSRA AFTER 18Z SAT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  61  86  63 /   0   5  30  60
ATLANTA         88  66  83  65 /   5  10  30  60
BLAIRSVILLE     84  57  80  60 /   0  10  50  70
CARTERSVILLE    87  62  83  63 /   5  10  30  60
COLUMBUS        89  66  86  66 /   5  10  20  40
GAINESVILLE     86  62  82  63 /   0  10  30  60
MACON           90  64  87  65 /   5   5  20  40
ROME            87  60  82  63 /   5  20  40  70
PEACHTREE CITY  88  61  84  62 /   5  10  30  50
VIDALIA         91  67  88  67 /   5   5  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291743
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
143 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. A DEVELOPING LOW WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A DISSIPATING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN THE WIND SHIFT
TO N OR NW. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RISE TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES COMBINED
WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL YIELD A WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 90S INLAND. GIVEN THE NNW SURFACE
FLOW THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE LATE AND WEAK BUT WILL NONETHELESS
KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER NEAR THE COAST. WE MAY COME CLOSE
TO THE EXISTING RECORD HIGH TEMPS AT KCHS AND KSAV TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK WARM FRONTAL FEATURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF OF COAST
COINCIDENT WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET, BUT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL
TO THE WEST. COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE SATURDAY, BUT SUSPECT STRONG DRYING TODAY WILL LIKELY
LIMIT ITS POTENTIAL DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS POOLING BACK INTO
THE LOWER 60S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO THE
UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 AT THE BEACHES--WARMEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST.

SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS A STRENGTHENING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND FORCING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF I-95. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...EXCEPT
COOLER AT THE COAST DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW VEERING TO A RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. MODELS STILL
SHOW SOME WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. BUT THE
LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND LOSS OF HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
LATE. LOWS ARE AGAIN MILD...IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...POSSIBLY 70
ALONG THE SE GEORGIA COAST.

SUNDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE MOST UNSETTLED DAY OF THE PERIOD.
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY...SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN...NO STRONG
UPPER FORCING...THUS FEEL BEST CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY AFTERNOON
COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMUM HEATING/INSTABILITY. HIGHS A TAD COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO CLOUD COVER...IN THE MID 80S MOST AREAS.

MONDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WHILE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IS TO OUR NORTH. AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INLAND...COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS HAS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW
DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL PASS OVER OR
NEAR US WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THE
00Z ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...INSTEAD IT HAS UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER OUR
AREA...ORIGINATING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTH TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR US TUESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLY ANOTHER LOW ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON THURSDAY. THE 00Z CANADIAN HAS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY...PASSING TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THAT. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...OPTED TO GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY CHANCE POPS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WE START DRYING OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT DO NOT
EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY NEXT WEEK...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH THE AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT WEAKENS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL
MARINE AREA WITH WINDS REMAINING 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY.
SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT.

TONIGHT...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 1-2 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS...WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WHILE SEAS ARE 3 FEET OR
LESS. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN BECOMES
UNSETTLED AS A TROUGH MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 29 APRIL...
KCHS 92/2002...
KCXM 92/2002...
KSAV 93/2002...

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE. AN ESTIMATED TIME FOR DATA
RESTORATION IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291739
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
139 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY ALLOWING A MOISTURE
INCREASE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND OVER THE REGION
TODAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS TODAY.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH A FEW THIN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. GIVEN THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT ALOFT...EXPECT A WARM DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND LOWER 90S
ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS KEEP WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH H85
NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW TODAY AND H5 RIDGING THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL
OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS PLUS SREF MEAN HAVE A POP LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR SATURDAY WITH A LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION. THIS MOISTURE AND HEATING PLUS CONVERGENCE INTO A
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH SUPPORTS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE THE CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUPPORTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE CHANCE MAY INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED MOISTURE INCREASE AND POSSIBLE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AGAIN USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND
FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. IT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS HOT SATURDAY
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH THE LOSS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
MORE CLOUDINESS. MIXING AND CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HELP
HOLD UP TEMPERATURES. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT DEPICTING HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PLUS AN UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 50 TO 70 PERCENT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED THE
FRONT IN THE AREA MONDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. THERE WAS
INCONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE GULF COAST REGION DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
THE ECMWF WAS FASTER DEVELOPING DEEP MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAD TEMPERATURES MAINLY
ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND NEAR NORMAL DURING THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND/THICKEN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES
IN PATCHY FOG AT THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT IMPACT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
HAVE ON FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS IN
PATCHY FOG AT KAGS/KOGB FROM 09-14Z...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM DOING
SO AT THE OTHER TERMINALS UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES EARLY SUNDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291406
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1006 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY ALLOWING A MOISTURE
INCREASE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND OVER THE REGION
TODAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/TROUGH BISECTS THE AREA AS OF LATE
MORNING...WITH A NOTABLE CHANGE IN DEWPOINTS AS THEY GO FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH
INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND A LACK OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TODAY. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH
A FEW THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. GIVEN THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT ALOFT...EXPECT A
WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS KEEP WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH H85
NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW TODAY AND H5 RIDGING THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL
OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS PLUS SREF MEAN HAVE A POP LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR SATURDAY WITH A LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION. THIS MOISTURE AND HEATING PLUS CONVERGENCE INTO A
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH SUPPORTS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE THE CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUPPORTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE CHANCE MAY INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED MOISTURE INCREASE AND POSSIBLE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AGAIN USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND
FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. IT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS HOT SATURDAY
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH THE LOSS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
MORE CLOUDINESS. MIXING AND CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HELP
HOLD UP TEMPERATURES. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT DEPICTING HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PLUS AN UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 50 TO 70 PERCENT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED THE
FRONT IN THE AREA MONDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. THERE WAS
INCONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE GULF COAST REGION DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
THE ECMWF WAS FASTER DEVELOPING DEEP MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAD TEMPERATURES MAINLY
ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND NEAR NORMAL DURING THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. SOME INTERMITTENT FOG AT AGS/OGB UNTIL AROUND 13Z
THIS MORNING. WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EXPECTED TODAY.
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291406
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1006 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. A DEVELOPING LOW WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A DISSIPATING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN THE WIND SHIFT
TO N OR NW. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RISE TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES COMBINED
WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL YIELD A WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 90S INLAND. GIVEN THE NNW SURFACE
FLOW THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE LATE AND WEAK BUT WILL NONETHELESS
KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER NEAR THE COAST. WE MAY COME CLOSE
TO THE EXISTING RECORD HIGH TEMPS AT KCHS AND KSAV TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK WARM FRONTAL FEATURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF OF COAST
COINCIDENT WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET, BUT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL
TO THE WEST. COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE SATURDAY, BUT SUSPECT STRONG DRYING TODAY WILL LIKELY
LIMIT ITS POTENTIAL DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS POOLING BACK INTO
THE LOWER 60S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO THE
UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 AT THE BEACHES--WARMEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST.

SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS A STRENGTHENING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND FORCING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF I-95. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...EXCEPT
COOLER AT THE COAST DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW VEERING TO A RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. MODELS STILL
SHOW SOME WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. BUT THE
LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND LOSS OF HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
LATE. LOWS ARE AGAIN MILD...IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...POSSIBLY 70
ALONG THE SE GEORGIA COAST.

SUNDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE MOST UNSETTLED DAY OF THE PERIOD.
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY...SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN...NO STRONG
UPPER FORCING...THUS FEEL BEST CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY AFTERNOON
COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMUM HEATING/INSTABILITY. HIGHS A TAD COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO CLOUD COVER...IN THE MID 80S MOST AREAS.

MONDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WHILE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IS TO OUR NORTH. AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INLAND...COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS HAS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW
DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL PASS OVER OR
NEAR US WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THE
00Z ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...INSTEAD IT HAS UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER OUR
AREA...ORIGINATING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTH TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR US TUESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLY ANOTHER LOW ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON THURSDAY. THE 00Z CANADIAN HAS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY...PASSING TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THAT. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...OPTED TO GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY CHANCE POPS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WE START DRYING OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY NEXT WEEK...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH THE AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT WEAKENS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL
MARINE AREA WITH WINDS REMAINING 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY.
SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT.

TONIGHT...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 1-2 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS...WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WHILE SEAS ARE 3 FEET OR
LESS. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN BECOMES
UNSETTLED AS A TROUGH MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 29 APRIL...
KCHS 92/2002...
KCXM 92/2002...
KSAV 93/2002...

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE. AN ESTIMATED TIME FOR DATA
RESTORATION IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291126
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
726 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
TODAY. THE RIDGING SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION TODAY...SO NO POPS
IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE WARM TODAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND NEAR
RECORD VALUES FOR SEVERAL OF THE CLIMATE SITES.

RIDING ALOFT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA. THE WEAK PERTURBATIONS COMBINED
WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS...MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY INTO SATURDAY.

ONCE AGAIN...THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING/COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIP ON SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS LOOK TO BE
ENHANCING PRECIP COVERAGE WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST IN THE
FLOW...AND THESE FEATURES ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO TIME. AT THE
SURFACE...A NEARLY DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY ALSO...PROVIDING SOME FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/EVE STORMS. HAVE
LEFT POPS IN THE ISOLD/SCT RANGE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANITICIPATED.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOKING TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DYNAMIC SETUP
PUSHES SEVERAL DISTURBANCES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. FOR THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM...FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY... WITH SHEAR
PARAMETERS STILL LOOKING LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH DECENT
LAPSE RATES ARE POSSIBLE. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST TO DETERMINE IF INTERACTION WILL
BE A MAIN PLAYER ON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE STATE...AND WHETHER CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP INSTABILITY LEVELS LOW. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE GOOD
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGENT IN HANDLING SHORTWAVE IMPACTING THE REGION.
FOR NOW...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS /CHANCE POPS/ AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE LARGE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS
FORECAST CHANCE WAS WE GET CLOSER.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IN THE SHORT TERM.

31

FIRE WEATHER...
A DRIER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. RH VALUES
WILL DIP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES SHOULD BE AT THEIR LOWEST BETWEEN 2PM AND
6PM. WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT AND GENERALLY AVERAGE LESS THAN 10
MPH.

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 04-29...FRIDAY.

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1915     50 1999     66 1975     38 1973
                                        1970        1928
   KATL      88 1894     47 1934     67 2014     39 1992
                                        1989
                                        1970
   KMCN      92 2012     50 1934     68 1970     37 1992
                                        1914
                                        1912
   KCSG      91 2012     59 1999     71 1970     41 1973





&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WINDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...PARTLY BECAUSE
SPEEDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 6KT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NE WINDS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD GO BACK TO THE W/NW WHEN MIXING
BEGINS. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO NEARLY DUE
SOUTH. BRIEF SE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO SW DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
TOMORROW. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  61  86  63 /   0   5  30  40
ATLANTA         88  66  83  65 /   5  10  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     84  57  80  60 /   0  10  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    87  62  83  63 /   5  10  30  50
COLUMBUS        89  66  86  66 /   5  10  20  30
GAINESVILLE     86  62  82  63 /   0  10  30  50
MACON           90  64  87  65 /   5   5  20  30
ROME            87  60  82  63 /   5  20  40  60
PEACHTREE CITY  88  61  84  62 /   5  10  30  40
VIDALIA         91  67  88  67 /   5   5  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291126
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
726 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
TODAY. THE RIDGING SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION TODAY...SO NO POPS
IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE WARM TODAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND NEAR
RECORD VALUES FOR SEVERAL OF THE CLIMATE SITES.

RIDING ALOFT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA. THE WEAK PERTURBATIONS COMBINED
WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS...MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY INTO SATURDAY.

ONCE AGAIN...THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING/COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIP ON SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS LOOK TO BE
ENHANCING PRECIP COVERAGE WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST IN THE
FLOW...AND THESE FEATURES ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO TIME. AT THE
SURFACE...A NEARLY DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY ALSO...PROVIDING SOME FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/EVE STORMS. HAVE
LEFT POPS IN THE ISOLD/SCT RANGE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANITICIPATED.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOKING TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DYNAMIC SETUP
PUSHES SEVERAL DISTURBANCES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. FOR THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM...FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY... WITH SHEAR
PARAMETERS STILL LOOKING LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH DECENT
LAPSE RATES ARE POSSIBLE. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST TO DETERMINE IF INTERACTION WILL
BE A MAIN PLAYER ON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE STATE...AND WHETHER CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP INSTABILITY LEVELS LOW. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE GOOD
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGENT IN HANDLING SHORTWAVE IMPACTING THE REGION.
FOR NOW...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS /CHANCE POPS/ AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE LARGE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS
FORECAST CHANCE WAS WE GET CLOSER.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IN THE SHORT TERM.

31

FIRE WEATHER...
A DRIER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. RH VALUES
WILL DIP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES SHOULD BE AT THEIR LOWEST BETWEEN 2PM AND
6PM. WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT AND GENERALLY AVERAGE LESS THAN 10
MPH.

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 04-29...FRIDAY.

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1915     50 1999     66 1975     38 1973
                                        1970        1928
   KATL      88 1894     47 1934     67 2014     39 1992
                                        1989
                                        1970
   KMCN      92 2012     50 1934     68 1970     37 1992
                                        1914
                                        1912
   KCSG      91 2012     59 1999     71 1970     41 1973





&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WINDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...PARTLY BECAUSE
SPEEDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 6KT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NE WINDS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD GO BACK TO THE W/NW WHEN MIXING
BEGINS. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO NEARLY DUE
SOUTH. BRIEF SE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO SW DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
TOMORROW. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  61  86  63 /   0   5  30  40
ATLANTA         88  66  83  65 /   5  10  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     84  57  80  60 /   0  10  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    87  62  83  63 /   5  10  30  50
COLUMBUS        89  66  86  66 /   5  10  20  30
GAINESVILLE     86  62  82  63 /   0  10  30  50
MACON           90  64  87  65 /   5   5  20  30
ROME            87  60  82  63 /   5  20  40  60
PEACHTREE CITY  88  61  84  62 /   5  10  30  40
VIDALIA         91  67  88  67 /   5   5  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291111
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
711 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. A DEVELOPING LOW WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
29/11Z MESOANALYSIS PLACED THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS INTO THE PEE DEE REGION. THE FRONT IS ON TARGET
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE AS IT BECOMES ENTANGLED WITHIN THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. INCREASING HEIGHT ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING 850-500 HPA RIDGE COUPLED WITH FULL
INSOLATION AND A WEAK 925-700 HPA DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL SUPPORT
A DOWNRIGHT HOT DAY FOR LATE APRIL WITH HIGHS POISED TO REACH THE
LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. GENERALLY FAVORED THE HIGHER END
OF THE 29/00Z GUIDANCE, BUT ADDED AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 DEGREES TO
TAKE WEAK DOWNSLOPE PROCESSES INTO ACCOUNT. RECORD HIGHS AT BOTH
THE CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH AIRPORTS COULD BE CHALLENGED WHILE THE
RECORD IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON LOOKS SAFE FOR NOW. THE 925-850 HPA
FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG-- GENERALLY 8-15 KT--SO THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION SHOULD MAKE SOME INLAND PROGRESSION, ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE LIKELY GO NO FURTHER THAN THE HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND I-95 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK WARM FRONTAL FEATURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF OF COAST
COINCIDENT WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET, BUT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL
TO THE WEST. COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE SATURDAY, BUT SUSPECT STRONG DRYING TODAY WILL LIKELY
LIMIT ITS POTENTIAL DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS POOLING BACK INTO
THE LOWER 60S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO THE
UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 AT THE BEACHES--WARMEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST.

SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS A STRENGTHENING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND FORCING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF I-95. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...EXCEPT
COOLER AT THE COAST DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW VEERING TO A RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. MODELS STILL
SHOW SOME WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. BUT THE
LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND LOSS OF HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
LATE. LOWS ARE AGAIN MILD...IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...POSSIBLY 70
ALONG THE SE GEORGIA COAST.

SUNDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE MOST UNSETTLED DAY OF THE PERIOD.
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY...SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN...NO STRONG
UPPER FORCING...THUS FEEL BEST CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY AFTERNOON
COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMUM HEATING/INSTABILITY. HIGHS A TAD COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO CLOUD COVER...IN THE MID 80S MOST AREAS.

MONDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WHILE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IS TO OUR NORTH. AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INLAND...COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS HAS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW
DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL PASS OVER OR
NEAR US WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THE
00Z ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...INSTEAD IT HAS UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER OUR
AREA...ORIGINATING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTH TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR US TUESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLY ANOTHER LOW ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON THURSDAY. THE 00Z CANADIAN HAS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY...PASSING TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THAT. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...OPTED TO GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY CHANCE POPS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WE START DRYING OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY NEXT WEEK...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH THE AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT WEAKENS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL
MARINE AREA WITH WINDS REMAINING 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY.
SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT.

TONIGHT...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 1-2 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS...WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WHILE SEAS ARE 3 FEET OR
LESS. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN BECOMES
UNSETTLED AS A TROUGH MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 29 APRIL...
KCHS 92/2002...
KCXM 92/2002...
KSAV 93/2002...

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE. AN ESTIMATED TIME FOR DATA
RESTORATION IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/MS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291111
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
711 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. A DEVELOPING LOW WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
29/11Z MESOANALYSIS PLACED THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS INTO THE PEE DEE REGION. THE FRONT IS ON TARGET
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE AS IT BECOMES ENTANGLED WITHIN THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. INCREASING HEIGHT ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING 850-500 HPA RIDGE COUPLED WITH FULL
INSOLATION AND A WEAK 925-700 HPA DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL SUPPORT
A DOWNRIGHT HOT DAY FOR LATE APRIL WITH HIGHS POISED TO REACH THE
LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. GENERALLY FAVORED THE HIGHER END
OF THE 29/00Z GUIDANCE, BUT ADDED AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 DEGREES TO
TAKE WEAK DOWNSLOPE PROCESSES INTO ACCOUNT. RECORD HIGHS AT BOTH
THE CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH AIRPORTS COULD BE CHALLENGED WHILE THE
RECORD IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON LOOKS SAFE FOR NOW. THE 925-850 HPA
FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG-- GENERALLY 8-15 KT--SO THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION SHOULD MAKE SOME INLAND PROGRESSION, ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE LIKELY GO NO FURTHER THAN THE HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND I-95 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK WARM FRONTAL FEATURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF OF COAST
COINCIDENT WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET, BUT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL
TO THE WEST. COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE SATURDAY, BUT SUSPECT STRONG DRYING TODAY WILL LIKELY
LIMIT ITS POTENTIAL DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS POOLING BACK INTO
THE LOWER 60S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO THE
UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 AT THE BEACHES--WARMEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST.

SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS A STRENGTHENING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND FORCING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF I-95. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...EXCEPT
COOLER AT THE COAST DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW VEERING TO A RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. MODELS STILL
SHOW SOME WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. BUT THE
LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND LOSS OF HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
LATE. LOWS ARE AGAIN MILD...IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...POSSIBLY 70
ALONG THE SE GEORGIA COAST.

SUNDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE MOST UNSETTLED DAY OF THE PERIOD.
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY...SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN...NO STRONG
UPPER FORCING...THUS FEEL BEST CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY AFTERNOON
COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMUM HEATING/INSTABILITY. HIGHS A TAD COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO CLOUD COVER...IN THE MID 80S MOST AREAS.

MONDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WHILE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IS TO OUR NORTH. AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INLAND...COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS HAS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW
DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL PASS OVER OR
NEAR US WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THE
00Z ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...INSTEAD IT HAS UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER OUR
AREA...ORIGINATING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTH TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR US TUESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLY ANOTHER LOW ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON THURSDAY. THE 00Z CANADIAN HAS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY...PASSING TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THAT. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...OPTED TO GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY CHANCE POPS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WE START DRYING OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY NEXT WEEK...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH THE AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT WEAKENS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL
MARINE AREA WITH WINDS REMAINING 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY.
SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT.

TONIGHT...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 1-2 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS...WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WHILE SEAS ARE 3 FEET OR
LESS. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN BECOMES
UNSETTLED AS A TROUGH MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 29 APRIL...
KCHS 92/2002...
KCXM 92/2002...
KSAV 93/2002...

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE. AN ESTIMATED TIME FOR DATA
RESTORATION IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/MS




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291027
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
627 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY ALLOWING A MOISTURE
INCREASE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MODELS KEEP WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH H85 NORTHWEST
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TODAY AND H5 RIDGING THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL OF THE
NAM AND GFS MOS PLUS SREF MEAN HAVE A POP LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
FORECASTED A HIGH TEMPERATURE ABOVE THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BASED
ON THE RECENT COOL BIAS AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND
THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURE NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER.
FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR SATURDAY WITH A LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION. THIS MOISTURE AND HEATING PLUS CONVERGENCE INTO A
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH SUPPORTS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE THE CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUPPORTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE CHANCE MAY INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED MOISTURE INCREASE AND POSSIBLE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AGAIN USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND
FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. IT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS HOT SATURDAY
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH THE LOSS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
MORE CLOUDINESS. MIXING AND CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HELP
HOLD UP TEMPERATURES. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT DEPICTING HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PLUS AN UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 50 TO 70 PERCENT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED THE
FRONT IN THE AREA MONDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. THERE WAS
INCONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE GULF COAST REGION DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
THE ECMWF WAS FASTER DEVELOPING DEEP MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAD TEMPERATURES MAINLY
ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND NEAR NORMAL DURING THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. SOME INTERMITTENT FOG AT AGS/OGB UNTIL AROUND 13Z
THIS MORNING. WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EXPECTED TODAY.
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291016
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
616 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY ALLOWING A MOISTURE
INCREASE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MODELS KEEP WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH H85 NORTHWEST
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TODAY AND H5 RIDGING THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL OF THE
NAM AND GFS MOS PLUS SREF MEAN HAVE A POP LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
FORECASTED A HIGH TEMPERATURE ABOVE THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BASED
ON THE RECENT COOL BIAS AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND
THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURE NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER.
FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR SATURDAY WITH A LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION. THIS MOISTURE AND HEATING PLUS CONVERGENCE INTO A
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH SUPPORTS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE THE CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUPPORTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE CHANCE MAY INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED MOISTURE INCREASE AND POSSIBLE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AGAIN USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND
FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. IT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS HOT SATURDAY
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH THE LOSS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
MORE CLOUDINESS. MIXING AND CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HELP
HOLD UP TEMPERATURES. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT DEPICTING HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PLUS AN UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 50 TO 70 PERCENT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED THE
FRONT IN THE AREA MONDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. THERE WAS
INCONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE GULF COAST REGION DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
THE ECMWF WAS FASTER DEVELOPING DEEP MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAD TEMPERATURES MAINLY
ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND NEAR NORMAL DURING THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. MAINLY CLEAR
SKY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. COULD SEE INTERMITTENT FOG AT AGS DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AS WINDS DIMINISH. WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290938
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
538 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. A DEVELOPING LOW WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRATUS
AND FOG STEADILY EXPANDING NORTH TOWARDS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
REPORTS FROM WFO JACKSONVILLE INDICATE THE FOG REMAINS FAIRLY
SHALLOW...ALTHOUGH THE GOES-EAST FOG CHANNEL SUGGESTS THE FOG IS
THICKENING WITH TIME. HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE TO INCLUDE AREAS OF
FOG FOR THE ZONES ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WITH A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG AS FAR NORTH AS A CLAXTON-RICHMOND HILL LINE. RIGHT
NOW...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT IN THE SAVANNAH METRO
AREA FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. THERE IS A CHANCE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

TODAY...29/07Z MESOANALYSIS PLACED THE COLD FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG
THE NORTH CAROLINA-SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. THE FRONT IS ON TARGET
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE AS IT BECOMES ENTANGLED WITHIN THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. INCREASING HEIGHT ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING 850-500 HPA RIDGE COUPLED WITH FULL
INSOLATION AND A WEAK 925-700 HPA DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL SUPPORT
A DOWNRIGHT HOT DAY FOR LATE APRIL WITH HIGHS POISED TO REACH THE
LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. GENERALLY FAVORED THE HIGHER END
OF THE 29/00Z GUIDANCE, BUT ADDED AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 DEGREES TO
TAKE WEAK DOWNSLOPE PROCESSES INTO ACCOUNT. RECORD HIGHS AT BOTH
THE CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH AIRPORTS COULD BE CHALLENGED WHILE THE
RECORD IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON LOOKS SAFE FOR NOW. THE 925-850 HPA
FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG--GENERALLY 8-15 KT--SO THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION SHOULD MAKE SOME INLAND PROGRESSION, ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE LIKELY GO NO FURTHER THAN THE HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND I-95 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK WARM FRONTAL FEATURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF OF COAST
COINCIDENT WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET, BUT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL
TO THE WEST. COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE SATURDAY, BUT SUSPECT STRONG DRYING TODAY WILL LIKELY
LIMIT ITS POTENTIAL DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS POOLING BACK INTO
THE LOWER 60S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO THE
UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 AT THE BEACHES--WARMEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST.

SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS A STRENGTHENING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND FORCING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF I-95. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...EXCEPT
COOLER AT THE COAST DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW VEERING TO A RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. MODELS STILL
SHOW SOME WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. BUT THE
LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND LOSS OF HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
LATE. LOWS ARE AGAIN MILD...IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...POSSIBLY 70
ALONG THE SE GEORGIA COAST.

SUNDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE MOST UNSETTLED DAY OF THE PERIOD.
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY...SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN...NO STRONG
UPPER FORCING...THUS FEEL BEST CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY AFTERNOON
COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMUM HEATING/INSTABILITY. HIGHS A TAD COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO CLOUD COVER...IN THE MID 80S MOST AREAS.

MONDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WHILE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IS TO OUR NORTH. AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INLAND...COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS HAS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW
DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL PASS OVER OR
NEAR US WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THE
00Z ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...INSTEAD IT HAS UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER OUR
AREA...ORIGINATING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTH TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR US TUESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLY ANOTHER LOW ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON THURSDAY. THE 00Z CANADIAN HAS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY...PASSING TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THAT. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...OPTED TO GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY CHANCE POPS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WE START DRYING OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR. COULD SEE SHALLOW GROUND FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY
KCHS WHERE RAINS FELL EARLIER. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS UNLESS WINDS GO CALM PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY NEXT WEEK...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH THE AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT WEAKENS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL
MARINE AREA WITH WINDS REMAINING 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY.
SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT.

TONIGHT...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 1-2 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS...WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WHILE SEAS ARE 3 FEET OR
LESS. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN BECOMES
UNSETTLED AS A TROUGH MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 29 APRIL...
KCHS 92/2002...
KCXM 92/2002...
KSAV 93/2002...

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE. AN ESTIMATED TIME FOR DATA
RESTORATION IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/MS




000
FXUS62 KFFC 290811
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
411 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
TODAY. THE RIDGING SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION TODAY...SO NO POPS
IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE WARM TODAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND NEAR
RECORD VALUES FOR SEVERAL OF THE CLIMATE SITES.

RIDING ALOFT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA. THE WEAK PERTURBATIONS COMBINED
WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS...MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY INTO SATURDAY.

ONCE AGAIN...THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING/COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIP ON SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS LOOK TO BE
ENHANCING PRECIP COVERAGE WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST IN THE
FLOW...AND THESE FEATURES ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO TIME. AT THE
SURFACE...A NEARLY DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY ALSO...PROVIDING SOME FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/EVE STORMS. HAVE
LEFT POPS IN THE ISOLD/SCT RANGE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANITICIPATED.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOKING TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DYNAMIC SETUP
PUSHES SEVERAL DISTURBANCES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. FOR THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM...FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY... WITH SHEAR
PARAMETERS STILL LOOKING LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH DECENT
LAPSE RATES ARE POSSIBLE. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST TO DETERMINE IF INTERACTION WILL
BE A MAIN PLAYER ON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE STATE...AND WHETHER CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP INSTABILITY LEVELS LOW. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE GOOD
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGENT IN HANDLING SHORTWAVE IMPACTING THE REGION.
FOR NOW...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS /CHANCE POPS/ AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE LARGE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS
FORECAST CHANCE WAS WE GET CLOSER.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IN THE SHORT TERM.

31


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRIER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. RH VALUES
WILL DIP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES SHOULD BE AT THEIR LOWEST BETWEEN 2PM AND
6PM. WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT AND GENERALLY AVERAGE LESS THAN 10
MPH.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 04-29...FRIDAY.

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1915     50 1999     66 1975     38 1973
                                        1970        1928
   KATL      88 1894     47 1934     67 2014     39 1992
                                        1989
                                        1970
   KMCN      92 2012     50 1934     68 1970     37 1992
                                        1914
                                        1912
   KCSG      91 2012     59 1999     71 1970     41 1973

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE TAFS WILL BE THE WINDS. SPEEDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND GENERALLY AVERAGE 6 KT OR LESS. WINDS MAY TRY TO GO N/NE
FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SPEEDS LOOK TO BE VERY
LIGHT AND AVERAGE LESS THAN 5KT. NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL
ACTUALLY OCCUR...SO WILL KEEP THEM ON THE WEST SIDE. MODELS ARE
ALSO PROGGING A SWITCH TO THE SE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT
AGAIN...SPEEDS ARE 5KT OR LESS. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS
SUNRISE BOTH THIS MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW-MED CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  61  86  63 /   0   5  30  40
ATLANTA         88  66  83  65 /   5  10  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     84  57  80  60 /   0  10  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    87  62  83  63 /   5  10  30  50
COLUMBUS        89  66  86  66 /   5  10  20  30
GAINESVILLE     86  62  82  63 /   0  10  30  50
MACON           90  64  87  65 /   5   5  20  30
ROME            87  60  82  63 /   5  20  40  60
PEACHTREE CITY  88  61  84  62 /   5  10  30  40
VIDALIA         91  67  88  67 /   5   5  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA




000
FXUS62 KFFC 290811
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
411 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
TODAY. THE RIDGING SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION TODAY...SO NO POPS
IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE WARM TODAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND NEAR
RECORD VALUES FOR SEVERAL OF THE CLIMATE SITES.

RIDING ALOFT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA. THE WEAK PERTURBATIONS COMBINED
WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS...MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY INTO SATURDAY.

ONCE AGAIN...THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING/COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIP ON SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS LOOK TO BE
ENHANCING PRECIP COVERAGE WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST IN THE
FLOW...AND THESE FEATURES ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO TIME. AT THE
SURFACE...A NEARLY DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY ALSO...PROVIDING SOME FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/EVE STORMS. HAVE
LEFT POPS IN THE ISOLD/SCT RANGE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANITICIPATED.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOKING TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DYNAMIC SETUP
PUSHES SEVERAL DISTURBANCES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. FOR THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM...FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY... WITH SHEAR
PARAMETERS STILL LOOKING LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH DECENT
LAPSE RATES ARE POSSIBLE. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST TO DETERMINE IF INTERACTION WILL
BE A MAIN PLAYER ON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE STATE...AND WHETHER CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP INSTABILITY LEVELS LOW. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE GOOD
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGENT IN HANDLING SHORTWAVE IMPACTING THE REGION.
FOR NOW...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS /CHANCE POPS/ AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE LARGE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS
FORECAST CHANCE WAS WE GET CLOSER.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IN THE SHORT TERM.

31


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRIER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. RH VALUES
WILL DIP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES SHOULD BE AT THEIR LOWEST BETWEEN 2PM AND
6PM. WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT AND GENERALLY AVERAGE LESS THAN 10
MPH.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 04-29...FRIDAY.

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1915     50 1999     66 1975     38 1973
                                        1970        1928
   KATL      88 1894     47 1934     67 2014     39 1992
                                        1989
                                        1970
   KMCN      92 2012     50 1934     68 1970     37 1992
                                        1914
                                        1912
   KCSG      91 2012     59 1999     71 1970     41 1973

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE TAFS WILL BE THE WINDS. SPEEDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND GENERALLY AVERAGE 6 KT OR LESS. WINDS MAY TRY TO GO N/NE
FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SPEEDS LOOK TO BE VERY
LIGHT AND AVERAGE LESS THAN 5KT. NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL
ACTUALLY OCCUR...SO WILL KEEP THEM ON THE WEST SIDE. MODELS ARE
ALSO PROGGING A SWITCH TO THE SE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT
AGAIN...SPEEDS ARE 5KT OR LESS. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS
SUNRISE BOTH THIS MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW-MED CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  61  86  63 /   0   5  30  40
ATLANTA         88  66  83  65 /   5  10  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     84  57  80  60 /   0  10  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    87  62  83  63 /   5  10  30  50
COLUMBUS        89  66  86  66 /   5  10  20  30
GAINESVILLE     86  62  82  63 /   0  10  30  50
MACON           90  64  87  65 /   5   5  20  30
ROME            87  60  82  63 /   5  20  40  60
PEACHTREE CITY  88  61  84  62 /   5  10  30  40
VIDALIA         91  67  88  67 /   5   5  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290809
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. A DEVELOPING LOW WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...CONDITIONS ARE STILL BEING MONITORED FOR
SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT RELAXES, SO CLEARING SKIES
AND WET GROUNDS COULD PROMOTE SOME SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DO
NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, BUT
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE COMING HOURS TO
HIGHLIGHT LOCALLY DENSE FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE.

TODAY...29/07Z MESOANALYSIS PLACED THE COLD FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG
THE NORTH CAROLINA-SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. THE FRONT IS ON TARGET
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE AS IT BECOMES ENTANGLED WITHIN THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. INCREASING HEIGHT ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING 850-500 HPA RIDGE COUPLED WITH FULL
INSOLATION AND A WEAK 925-700 HPA DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL SUPPORT
A DOWNRIGHT HOT DAY FOR LATE APRIL WITH HIGHS POISED TO REACH THE
LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. GENERALLY FAVORED THE HIGHER END
OF THE 29/00Z GUIDANCE, BUT ADDED AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 DEGREES TO
TAKE WEAK DOWNSLOPE PROCESSES INTO ACCOUNT. RECORD HIGHS AT BOTH
THE CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH AIRPORTS COULD BE CHALLENGED WHILE THE
RECORD IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON LOOKS SAFE FOR NOW. THE 925-850 HPA
FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG--GENERALLY 8-15 KT--SO THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION SHOULD MAKE SOME INLAND PROGRESSION, ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE LIKELY GO NO FURTHER THAN THE HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND I-95 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK WARM FRONTAL FEATURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF OF COAST
COINCIDENT WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET, BUT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL
TO THE WEST. COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE SATURDAY, BUT SUSPECT STRONG DRYING TODAY WILL LIKELY
LIMIT ITS POTENTIAL DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS POOLING BACK INTO
THE LOWER 60S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO THE
UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 AT THE BEACHES--WARMEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST.

SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS A STRENGTHENING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND FORCING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF I-95. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...EXCEPT
COOLER AT THE COAST DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW VEERING TO A RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. MODELS STILL
SHOW SOME WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. BUT THE
LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND LOSS OF HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
LATE. LOWS ARE AGAIN MILD...IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...POSSIBLY 70
ALONG THE SE GEORGIA COAST.

SUNDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE MOST UNSETTLED DAY OF THE PERIOD.
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY...SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN...NO STRONG
UPPER FORCING...THUS FEEL BEST CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY AFTERNOON
COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMUM HEATING/INSTABILITY. HIGHS A TAD COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO CLOUD COVER...IN THE MID 80S MOST AREAS.

MONDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WHILE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IS TO OUR NORTH. AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INLAND...COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS HAS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW
DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL PASS OVER OR
NEAR US WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THE
00Z ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...INSTEAD IT HAS UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER OUR
AREA...ORIGINATING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTH TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR US TUESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLY ANOTHER LOW ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON THURSDAY. THE 00Z CANADIAN HAS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY...PASSING TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THAT. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...OPTED TO GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY CHANCE POPS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WE START DRYING OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR. COULD SEE SHALLOW GROUND FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY
KCHS WHERE RAINS FELL EARLIER. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS UNLESS WINDS GO CALM PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY NEXT WEEK...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH THE AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT WEAKENS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL
MARINE AREA WITH WINDS REMAINING 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY.
SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT.

TONIGHT...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 1-2 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS...WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WHILE SEAS ARE 3 FEET OR
LESS. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN BECOMES
UNSETTLED AS A TROUGH MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 29 APRIL...
KCHS 92/2002...
KCXM 92/2002...
KSAV 93/2002...

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NOS TIDE GAUGE HAS STOPPED REPORTING ALL
METEOROLOGICAL AND TIDE DATA. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS
INVESTIGATING THE CAUSE OF THE OUTAGE. AN ESTIMATED TIME FOR DATA
RESTORATION IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/MS




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290758
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
358 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING A MOISTURE
INCREASE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MODELS KEEP WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH H85 NORTHWEST
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TODAY AND H5 RIDGING THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL OF THE
NAM AND GFS MOS PLUS SREF MEAN HAVE A POP LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
FORECASTED A HIGH TEMPERATURE ABOVE THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BASED
ON THE RECENT COOL BIAS AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND
THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURE NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER.
FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR SATURDAY WITH A LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION. THIS MOISTURE AND HEATING PLUS CONVERGENCE INTO A
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH SUPPORTS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE THE CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUPPORTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE CHANCE MAY INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED MOISTURE INCREASE AND POSSIBLE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AGAIN USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND
FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. IT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS HOT SATURDAY
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH THE LOSS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
MORE CLOUDINESS. MIXING AND CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HELP
HOLD UP TEMPERATURES. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT DEPICTING HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PLUS AN UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 50 TO 70 PERCENT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED THE
FRONT IN THE AREA MONDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. THERE WAS
INCONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE GULF COAST REGION DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
THE ECMWF WAS FASTER DEVELOPING DEEP MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAD TEMPERATURES MAINLY
ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND NEAR NORMAL DURING THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. MAINLY CLEAR
SKY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. COULD SEE INTERMITTENT FOG AT AGS DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AS WINDS DIMINISH. WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KFFC 290529
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
129 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED. SUNSET HASTENED THE
DEMISE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT REMAINED IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
EARLIER THIS EVENING. WHILE AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON ON
FRIDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

RW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

DRIER AIR IS SPREADING OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN END TO THE PRECIP ACROSS NORTH GA AND
IT WILL RAPIDLY END THE PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS EVENING.
THE DRY AND STABLE AIR WILL HOLD OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO MAINLY NORTH GEORGIA.
WITH A DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FEW CLOUDS...TEMPS
WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE REGION.

17

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED...AND ALSO A BIT
UNCERTAIN. LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SYSTEM STILL LOOKS LIKE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN RAMPING UP SATURDAY...PEAK SUNDAY AND
DIMINISH BY MONDAY. ALL-IN-ALL I HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS CYCLE...BUT HAVE LEFT THE
BASIC TRENDS UNCHANGED.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

20

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FCST PERIOD STARTS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE NORTHERN GULF
AND RETURN OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE FOCUSED NEAR A LINGERING WEDGE FRONT
OR OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN THE NORTH AND THERE IS SOME DECENT
PROGGED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS MIGHT BE
WARRANTED IN FUTURE UPDATES. STILL LOOKING TO HAVE GREATEST PRECIP
CHANCE/COVERAGE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD AS THE
UPPER FORCING/JET DYNAMICS PUSH A BIT CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. NOT QUITE AS MUCH AMPLITUDE TO THIS SYSTEM AS SEEN IN
PREVIOUS SUITES OF GUIDANCE AND THE SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS BEFORE...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH HOW
UNSTABLE THE ENVIRONMENT CAN GET WHILE DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE POSSIBLE. THE COMMON FLIES IN THE OINTMENT THAT COULD
BUST PRECIP FCST WOULD BE IF ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION DISRUPTS
MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE NORTHERN GULF OR WEAK PERTURBATIONS AND
REMNANT CLOUD COVERAGE MUDDLES THE SENSITIVE ATMOSPHERE.

FORECAST ACTUALLY GETS TRICKIER MONDAY AND BEYOND GIVEN LARGE
DISCREPANCY AND INCONSISTENCY AMONG LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW
END CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS ACCORDINGLY...THOUGH IF ANY PERIOD LOOKS
TO HAVE SOME TYPE OF CONSENSUS FOR SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL IT WOULD
BE LATE TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...THOUGH STILL BIG DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND SHORTWAVE
POTENTIAL.

TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD TREND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN NEAR NORMS BEYOND...THOUGH EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS
MADE PER AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES.

BAKER


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE TAFS WILL BE THE WINDS. SPEEDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND GENERALLY AVERAGE 6 KT OR LESS. WINDS MAY TRY TO GO N/NE
FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SPEEDS LOOK TO BE VERY
LIGHT AND AVERAGE LESS THAN 5KT. NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL
ACTUALLY OCCUR...SO WILL KEEP THEM ON THE WEST SIDE. MODELS ARE
ALSO PROGGING A SWITCH TO THE SE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT
AGAIN...SPEEDS ARE 5KT OR LESS. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS
SUNRISE BOTH THIS MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW-MED CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  59  84  63 /   0   5  30  40
ATLANTA         87  66  82  65 /   5  10  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     83  55  78  60 /   0  10  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    88  62  81  64 /   5  10  40  60
COLUMBUS        90  66  85  66 /   5  10  20  30
GAINESVILLE     87  62  80  63 /   0  10  40  50
MACON           90  62  87  65 /   5   5  20  30
ROME            89  61  81  63 /   5  20  40  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  61  82  63 /   5  10  30  40
VIDALIA         91  67  89  66 /   5   5  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290507
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
107 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WILL
CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS ON TARGET TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
AFTER SUNRISE. WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK
WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING A FEW MORE DEGREES. OPTED TO NUDGE
MORNING LOWS UP 1-3 DEGREES PER GOING TRENDS. THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS HAS GENERALLY ENDED...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS AS THE COLD
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. AS HIGH CLOUDS THIN AND WINDS DIMINISH AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING TO
SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG. THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE IN PLACES. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
MOVE IN WITH NO PRECIPITATION MOST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECTED. A WEAK
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
VERY WARM AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...EXCEPT
SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COAST AS LIGHT WINDS TURN TO ONSHORE BY
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
BY LATE IN THE DAY THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK
UPPER FORCING ON THE EAST OF THE ADVANCING TROUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTION. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THAT REGION. HIGHS AGAIN VERY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90...EXCEPT COOLER AT THE COAST DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
VEERING TO A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING
MOISTURE/CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD...BUT REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME
WEAK UPPER IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW...BUT WITH LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND LOSS OF
HEATING/INSTABILITY...HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWS AGAIN
MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE MOST UNSETTLED DAY OF THE PERIOD.
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY...SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN...NO STRONG
UPPER FORCING...THUS FEEL BEST CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY AFTERNOON
COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMUM HEATING/INSTABILITY. HIGHS A TAD COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO CLOUD COVER...IN THE MID 80S MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FILTER INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AND TRACKS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MID WEEK UNTIL SFC LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
THEN EXPECTED HEADING INTO LATE WEEK WHILE A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR. COULD SEE SHALLOW GROUND FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY
KCHS WHERE RAINS FELL EARLIER. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS UNLESS WINDS GO CALM PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECT TO PREVAIL.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
RETURNS WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A PERSISTENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
A LOW PRESSURE/A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N/NW AND OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SW WINDS 10-15 KT MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE W LATE AND COULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE/HIGHEST ACROSS
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND OUTER GA WATERS. THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY AND LIKELY INTO MONDAY...BECOMING A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE IS
MODEL UNCERTAINTY BY LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTH...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290507
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
107 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WILL
CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS ON TARGET TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
AFTER SUNRISE. WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK
WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING A FEW MORE DEGREES. OPTED TO NUDGE
MORNING LOWS UP 1-3 DEGREES PER GOING TRENDS. THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS HAS GENERALLY ENDED...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS AS THE COLD
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. AS HIGH CLOUDS THIN AND WINDS DIMINISH AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING TO
SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG. THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE IN PLACES. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
MOVE IN WITH NO PRECIPITATION MOST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECTED. A WEAK
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
VERY WARM AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...EXCEPT
SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COAST AS LIGHT WINDS TURN TO ONSHORE BY
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
BY LATE IN THE DAY THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK
UPPER FORCING ON THE EAST OF THE ADVANCING TROUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTION. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THAT REGION. HIGHS AGAIN VERY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90...EXCEPT COOLER AT THE COAST DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
VEERING TO A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING
MOISTURE/CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD...BUT REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME
WEAK UPPER IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW...BUT WITH LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND LOSS OF
HEATING/INSTABILITY...HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWS AGAIN
MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE MOST UNSETTLED DAY OF THE PERIOD.
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY...SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN...NO STRONG
UPPER FORCING...THUS FEEL BEST CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY AFTERNOON
COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMUM HEATING/INSTABILITY. HIGHS A TAD COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO CLOUD COVER...IN THE MID 80S MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FILTER INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AND TRACKS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MID WEEK UNTIL SFC LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
THEN EXPECTED HEADING INTO LATE WEEK WHILE A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR. COULD SEE SHALLOW GROUND FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY
KCHS WHERE RAINS FELL EARLIER. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS UNLESS WINDS GO CALM PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECT TO PREVAIL.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
RETURNS WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A PERSISTENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
A LOW PRESSURE/A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N/NW AND OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SW WINDS 10-15 KT MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE W LATE AND COULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE/HIGHEST ACROSS
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND OUTER GA WATERS. THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY AND LIKELY INTO MONDAY...BECOMING A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE IS
MODEL UNCERTAINTY BY LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTH...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290248
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1048 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WILL
CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATE THURSDAY EVENING...SHOWERS HAD DISSIPATED OVER/UPSTREAM OF
THE REGION. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...ONGOING RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED FOR
TONIGHT. THUS...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...GROUND FOG WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT
A PERSISTENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ELEVATED W/SW WINDS
JUST OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD MITIGATE THE COVERAGE/IMPACT OF ANY
FOG. HOWEVER...IF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND/OR
LOW-LEVEL WINDS SLACKEN LATER ON...MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG COULD
DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S AT MANY LOCATIONS...PERHAPS HOLDING AROUND 70F
ON THE BEACHES....ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN
OCCURRED COULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
MOVE IN WITH NO PRECIPITATION MOST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECTED. A WEAK
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
VERY WARM AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...EXCEPT
SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COAST AS LIGHT WINDS TURN TO ONSHORE BY
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
BY LATE IN THE DAY THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK
UPPER FORCING ON THE EAST OF THE ADVANCING TROUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTION. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THAT REGION. HIGHS AGAIN VERY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90...EXCEPT COOLER AT THE COAST DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
VEERING TO A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING
MOISTURE/CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD...BUT REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME
WEAK UPPER IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW...BUT WITH LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND LOSS OF
HEATING/INSTABILITY...HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWS AGAIN
MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE MOST UNSETTLED DAY OF THE PERIOD.
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY...SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN...NO STRONG
UPPER FORCING...THUS FEEL BEST CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY AFTERNOON
COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMUM HEATING/INSTABILITY. HIGHS A TAD COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO CLOUD COVER...IN THE MID 80S MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FILTER INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AND TRACKS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MID WEEK UNTIL SFC LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
THEN EXPECTED HEADING INTO LATE WEEK WHILE A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAINLY IN GROUND
FOG LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH
FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECT TO PREVAIL.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
RETURNS WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A PERSISTENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
A LOW PRESSURE/A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N/NW AND OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SW WINDS 10-15 KT MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...AND A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD
VEER TOWARD THE W LATE AND COULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE/HIGHEST ACROSS
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND OUTER GA WATERS. THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY AND LIKELY INTO MONDAY...BECOMING A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE IS
MODEL UNCERTAINTY BY LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTH...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
DATA FROM THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE STATION REMAINS UNAVAILABLE
THURSDAY EVENING. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS WORKING TO
RESTORE SERVICE. AN ESTIMATED TIME FOR RESTORATION OF DATA IS
UNKNOWN.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT/SPR
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ECT/SPR
MARINE...ECT/RFM/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290248
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1048 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WILL
CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATE THURSDAY EVENING...SHOWERS HAD DISSIPATED OVER/UPSTREAM OF
THE REGION. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...ONGOING RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED FOR
TONIGHT. THUS...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...GROUND FOG WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT
A PERSISTENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ELEVATED W/SW WINDS
JUST OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD MITIGATE THE COVERAGE/IMPACT OF ANY
FOG. HOWEVER...IF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND/OR
LOW-LEVEL WINDS SLACKEN LATER ON...MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG COULD
DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S AT MANY LOCATIONS...PERHAPS HOLDING AROUND 70F
ON THE BEACHES....ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN
OCCURRED COULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
MOVE IN WITH NO PRECIPITATION MOST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECTED. A WEAK
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
VERY WARM AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...EXCEPT
SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COAST AS LIGHT WINDS TURN TO ONSHORE BY
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
BY LATE IN THE DAY THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK
UPPER FORCING ON THE EAST OF THE ADVANCING TROUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTION. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THAT REGION. HIGHS AGAIN VERY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90...EXCEPT COOLER AT THE COAST DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
VEERING TO A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING
MOISTURE/CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD...BUT REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME
WEAK UPPER IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW...BUT WITH LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND LOSS OF
HEATING/INSTABILITY...HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWS AGAIN
MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE MOST UNSETTLED DAY OF THE PERIOD.
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY...SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN...NO STRONG
UPPER FORCING...THUS FEEL BEST CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY AFTERNOON
COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMUM HEATING/INSTABILITY. HIGHS A TAD COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO CLOUD COVER...IN THE MID 80S MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FILTER INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AND TRACKS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MID WEEK UNTIL SFC LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
THEN EXPECTED HEADING INTO LATE WEEK WHILE A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAINLY IN GROUND
FOG LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH
FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECT TO PREVAIL.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
RETURNS WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A PERSISTENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
A LOW PRESSURE/A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N/NW AND OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SW WINDS 10-15 KT MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...AND A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD
VEER TOWARD THE W LATE AND COULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE/HIGHEST ACROSS
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND OUTER GA WATERS. THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY AND LIKELY INTO MONDAY...BECOMING A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE IS
MODEL UNCERTAINTY BY LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTH...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
DATA FROM THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE STATION REMAINS UNAVAILABLE
THURSDAY EVENING. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE IS WORKING TO
RESTORE SERVICE. AN ESTIMATED TIME FOR RESTORATION OF DATA IS
UNKNOWN.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT/SPR
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ECT/SPR
MARINE...ECT/RFM/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290240
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1040 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIER BETWEEN UPPER SYSTEMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME CELLS
REMAINING IN CENTRAL NC AS WELL AS SOUTHERN GA. OVERNIGHT A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND REMAIN ON TRACK FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
IS STILL WEST OF THE AREA. WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW PATTERN DO
NOT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL FRIDAY. PWAT VALUES REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW
0.75 INCHES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
WINDS...AND STILL EXPECTING AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE
LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S.

SATURDAY...SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS SOUTH FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN
FURTHER OFF TO THE WEST IN THE UPSTATE. LOSS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM AT THIS TIME. MODELS REMAIN IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN START TO DIVERGE SOLUTIONS
AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST BEGINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY WENT WITH A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. COULD SEE INTERMITTENT FOG AT AGS 09Z-12Z AS
WINDS DIMINISH. WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EXPECTED FRIDAY
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 290223
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1023 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016


.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED. SUNSET HASTENED THE
DEMISE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT REMAINED IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
EARLIER THIS EVENING. WHILE AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON ON
FRIDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

RW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

DRIER AIR IS SPREADING OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN END TO THE PRECIP ACROSS NORTH GA AND
IT WILL RAPIDLY END THE PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS EVENING.
THE DRY AND STABLE AIR WILL HOLD OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO MAINLY NORTH GEORGIA.
WITH A DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FEW CLOUDS...TEMPS
WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE REGION.

17

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED...AND ALSO A BIT
UNCERTAIN. LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SYSTEM STILL LOOKS LIKE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN RAMPING UP SATURDAY...PEAK SUNDAY AND
DIMINISH BY MONDAY. ALL-IN-ALL I HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS CYCLE...BUT HAVE LEFT THE
BASIC TRENDS UNCHANGED.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

20

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FCST PERIOD STARTS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE NORTHERN GULF
AND RETURN OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE FOCUSED NEAR A LINGERING WEDGE FRONT
OR OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN THE NORTH AND THERE IS SOME DECENT
PROGGED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS MIGHT BE
WARRANTED IN FUTURE UPDATES. STILL LOOKING TO HAVE GREATEST PRECIP
CHANCE/COVERAGE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD AS THE
UPPER FORCING/JET DYNAMICS PUSH A BIT CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. NOT QUITE AS MUCH AMPLITUDE TO THIS SYSTEM AS SEEN IN
PREVIOUS SUITES OF GUIDANCE AND THE SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS BEFORE...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH HOW
UNSTABLE THE ENVIRONMENT CAN GET WHILE DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE POSSIBLE. THE COMMON FLIES IN THE OINTMENT THAT COULD
BUST PRECIP FCST WOULD BE IF ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION DISRUPTS
MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE NORTHERN GULF OR WEAK PERTURBATIONS AND
REMNANT CLOUD COVERAGE MUDDLES THE SENSITIVE ATMOSPHERE.

FORECAST ACTUALLY GETS TRICKIER MONDAY AND BEYOND GIVEN LARGE
DISCREPANCY AND INCONSISTENCY AMONG LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW
END CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS ACCORDINGLY...THOUGH IF ANY PERIOD LOOKS
TO HAVE SOME TYPE OF CONSENSUS FOR SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL IT WOULD
BE LATE TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...THOUGH STILL BIG DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND SHORTWAVE
POTENTIAL.

TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD TREND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN NEAR NORMS BEYOND...THOUGH EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS
MADE PER AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPMENT...OTHERWISE ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
AFTER SUNSET AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          60  89  59  84 /  10   5  10  30
ATLANTA         63  87  66  82 /   5   5  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     56  83  55  78 /   5   5  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    58  88  62  81 /   5   5  20  30
COLUMBUS        64  90  66  85 /  20  10  10  20
GAINESVILLE     61  87  62  80 /   5   5  20  30
MACON           62  90  62  87 /  20  10  10  20
ROME            57  89  61  81 /   5   5  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  57  87  61  82 /  10  10  10  20
VIDALIA         66  91  67  89 /  20   5   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290004
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
804 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THEN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THURSDAY EVENING...UPDATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING/EXPECTED
TRENDS. SPECIFICALLY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I-16 THIS EVENING...AND MANY
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE N/NW OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT A
ADDITIONAL/ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE...AND MANY
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
TO ASSESS OVERNIGHT POPS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AT MANY LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRED COULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE EDISTO RIVER. ALSO OF NOTE...
A DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER/LIGHT WINDS COULD PROMOTE SOME FOG
LATER TONIGHT...BUT ELEVATED WEST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD MITIGATE THE COVERAGE/IMPACT OF ANY FOG.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
MOVE IN WITH NO PRECIPITATION MOST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECTED. A WEAK
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
VERY WARM AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...EXCEPT
SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COAST AS LIGHT WINDS TURN TO ONSHORE BY
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
BY LATE IN THE DAY THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK
UPPER FORCING ON THE EAST OF THE ADVANCING TROUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTION. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THAT REGION. HIGHS AGAIN VERY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90...EXCEPT COOLER AT THE COAST DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
VEERING TO A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING
MOISTURE/CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD...BUT REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME
WEAK UPPER IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW...BUT WITH LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND LOSS OF
HEATING/INSTABILITY...HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWS AGAIN
MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE MOST UNSETTLED DAY OF THE PERIOD.
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY...SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN...NO STRONG
UPPER FORCING...THUS FEEL BEST CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY AFTERNOON
COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMUM HEATING/INSTABILITY. HIGHS A TAD COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO CLOUD COVER...IN THE MID 80S MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FILTER INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AND TRACKS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MID WEEK UNTIL SFC LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
THEN EXPECTED HEADING INTO LATE WEEK WHILE A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAINLY IN GROUND
FOG LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH
FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECT TO PREVAIL.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
RETURNS WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE INFLUENCE AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
THE AREA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER MORE TOWARD THE WEST
LATE. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE/HIGHEST
ACROSS CHARLESTON COUNTY AND OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE
2-4 FT...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND BEYOND.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR
LESS. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND LIKELY INTO MONDAY...BECOMING A BIT MORE
UNSETTLED AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THERE IS MODEL UNCERTAINTY BY LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTH...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND WILL LET THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT/SPR
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ECT/SPR
MARINE...ECT/RFM/SPR




000
FXUS62 KFFC 282348
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
748 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

DRIER AIR IS SPREADING OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN END TO THE PRECIP ACROSS NORTH GA AND
IT WILL RAPIDLY END THE PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS EVENING.
THE DRY AND STABLE AIR WILL HOLD OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO MAINLY NORTH GEORGIA.
WITH A DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FEW CLOUDS...TEMPS
WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE REGION.

17

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED...AND ALSO A BIT
UNCERTAIN. LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SYSTEM STILL LOOKS LIKE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN RAMPING UP SATURDAY...PEAK SUNDAY AND
DIMINISH BY MONDAY. ALL-IN-ALL I HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS CYCLE...BUT HAVE LEFT THE
BASIC TRENDS UNCHANGED.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

20

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FCST PERIOD STARTS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE NORTHERN GULF
AND RETURN OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE FOCUSED NEAR A LINGERING WEDGE FRONT
OR OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN THE NORTH AND THERE IS SOME DECENT
PROGGED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS MIGHT BE
WARRANTED IN FUTURE UPDATES. STILL LOOKING TO HAVE GREATEST PRECIP
CHANCE/COVERAGE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD AS THE
UPPER FORCING/JET DYNAMICS PUSH A BIT CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. NOT QUITE AS MUCH AMPLITUDE TO THIS SYSTEM AS SEEN IN
PREVIOUS SUITES OF GUIDANCE AND THE SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS BEFORE...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH HOW
UNSTABLE THE ENVIRONMENT CAN GET WHILE DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE POSSIBLE. THE COMMON FLIES IN THE OINTMENT THAT COULD
BUST PRECIP FCST WOULD BE IF ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION DISRUPTS
MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE NORTHERN GULF OR WEAK PERTURBATIONS AND
REMNANT CLOUD COVERAGE MUDDLES THE SENSITIVE ATMOSPHERE.

FORECAST ACTUALLY GETS TRICKIER MONDAY AND BEYOND GIVEN LARGE
DISCREPANCY AND INCONSISTENCY AMONG LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW
END CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS ACCORDINGLY...THOUGH IF ANY PERIOD LOOKS
TO HAVE SOME TYPE OF CONSENSUS FOR SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL IT WOULD
BE LATE TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...THOUGH STILL BIG DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND SHORTWAVE
POTENTIAL.

TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD TREND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN NEAR NORMS BEYOND...THOUGH EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS
MADE PER AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPMENT...OTHERWISE ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
AFTER SUNSET AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          60  89  59  84 /  10   5  10  30
ATLANTA         63  87  66  82 /   5   5  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     56  83  55  78 /   5   5  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    58  88  62  81 /   5   5  20  30
COLUMBUS        64  90  66  85 /  20  10  10  20
GAINESVILLE     61  87  62  80 /   5   5  20  30
MACON           62  90  62  87 /  20  10  10  20
ROME            57  89  61  81 /   5   5  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  57  87  61  82 /  10  10  10  20
VIDALIA         66  91  67  89 /  20   5   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KCAE 282339
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
739 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIER BETWEEN UPPER SYSTEMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LINGERING CONVECTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AND
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS CLEARING TAKES
PLACE. THE HRRR KEEPS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN NORTH CAROLINA
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
IS STILL WEST OF THE AREA. WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW PATTERN DO
NOT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL FRIDAY. PWAT VALUES REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW
0.75 INCHES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
WINDS...AND STILL EXPECTING AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE
LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S.

SATURDAY...SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS SOUTH FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN
FURTHER OFF TO THE WEST IN THE UPSTATE. LOSS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM AT THIS TIME. MODELS REMAIN IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN START TO DIVERGE SOLUTIONS
AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST BEGINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY WENT WITH A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR THE EVENING.
CLOUDS CLEARING THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MAINLY CLEAR SKY
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
COULD SEE INTERMITTENT FOG AT AGS 09Z-12Z AS WINDS DIMINISH. WIND
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 282339
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
739 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIER BETWEEN UPPER SYSTEMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LINGERING CONVECTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AND
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS CLEARING TAKES
PLACE. THE HRRR KEEPS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN NORTH CAROLINA
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
IS STILL WEST OF THE AREA. WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW PATTERN DO
NOT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL FRIDAY. PWAT VALUES REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW
0.75 INCHES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
WINDS...AND STILL EXPECTING AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE
LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S.

SATURDAY...SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS SOUTH FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN
FURTHER OFF TO THE WEST IN THE UPSTATE. LOSS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM AT THIS TIME. MODELS REMAIN IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN START TO DIVERGE SOLUTIONS
AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST BEGINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY WENT WITH A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR THE EVENING.
CLOUDS CLEARING THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MAINLY CLEAR SKY
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
COULD SEE INTERMITTENT FOG AT AGS 09Z-12Z AS WINDS DIMINISH. WIND
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 282318
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
718 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIER BETWEEN UPPER SYSTEMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LINGERING CONVECTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AND
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS CLEARING TAKES
PLACE. THE HRRR KEEPS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN NORTH CAROLINA
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS STILL
WEST OF THE AREA. WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW PATTERN DO NOT EXPECT
ANY RAINFALL FRIDAY. PWAT VALUES REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW 0.75 INCHES. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WARM DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS...AND STILL EXPECTING
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ONLY FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

SATURDAY...SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS SOUTH FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN
FURTHER OFF TO THE WEST IN THE UPSTATE. LOSS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM AT THIS TIME. MODELS REMAIN IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN START TO DIVERGE SOLUTIONS
AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST BEGINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY WENT WITH A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE OGB VCNTY THROUGH
00Z...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES. CLOUDS CLEARING THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MAINLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 282156
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
556 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FIRED UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE AND VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAINLY ACROSS THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA. FOR THE MOST PART...MUCH OF THE AREA
HAS BEEN WORKED OVER AND THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING LOOKS FAIRLY LOW. REMAINDER OF PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE TONIGHT PERIOD SHOULD
BE QUIET GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS IN PLAY. ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE COAST.

MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE WERE ON POPS
TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AS CONVECTION DISTURBED THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
MOVE IN WITH NO PRECIPITATION MOST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECTED. A WEAK
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
VERY WARM AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...EXCEPT
SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COAST AS LIGHT WINDS TURN TO ONSHORE BY
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
BY LATE IN THE DAY THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK
UPPER FORCING ON THE EAST OF THE ADVANCING TROUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTION. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THAT REGION. HIGHS AGAIN VERY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90...EXCEPT COOLER AT THE COAST DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
VEERING TO A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING
MOISTURE/CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD...BUT REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME
WEAK UPPER IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW...BUT WITH LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND LOSS OF
HEATING/INSTABILITY...HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWS AGAIN
MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE MOST UNSETTLED DAY OF THE PERIOD.
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY...SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN...NO STRONG
UPPER FORCING...THUS FEEL BEST CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY AFTERNOON
COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMUM HEATING/INSTABILITY. HIGHS A TAD COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO CLOUD COVER...IN THE MID 80S MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FILTER INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AND TRACKS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MID WEEK UNTIL SFC LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
THEN EXPECTED HEADING INTO LATE WEEK WHILE A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING AND
COVERAGE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT SO AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED SHOULD CONVECTION AFFECT THE TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECT TO PREVAIL.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
RETURNS WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE INFLUENCE AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER MORE TOWARD THE WEST LATE AS THIS
OCCURS WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR
LESS. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND LIKELY INTO MONDAY...BECOMING A BIT MORE
UNSETTLED AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THERE IS MODEL UNCERTAINTY BY LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTH...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND WILL LET THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...ECT/RFM




000
FXUS62 KCAE 282127
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
527 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL HELP BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE TODAY AND SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIER BETWEEN UPPER SYSTEMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SEEMS TO BE LIMITING THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY
SHOWERS THAT HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CSRA AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS WHERE MOISTURE PROFILES AND INSTABILITY ARE MOST
FAVORABLE.

DIURNAL HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
80S COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE UPWARDS OF 1500-1750 J/KG
IN THE MOST UNSTABLE AREAS. THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH IMPROVING
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...GIVEN ALL OF THE DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE
CSRA AND EASTERN MIDLANDS.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND A DRIER WESTERLY
FLOW. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CLEARING TAKES PLACE. THEN...A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE EXITS THE AREA AS SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS
STILL WEST OF THE AREA. WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW PATTERN DO NOT
EXPECT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WARM DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS...AND STILL EXPECTING AFTERNOON
HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT ONLY FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM AT THIS TIME. MODELS REMAIN IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN START TO DIVERGE SOLUTIONS
AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AND
CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS SATURDAY...BUT BEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN FURTHER OFF TO
THE WEST IN THE UPSTATE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST BEGINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY WENT WITH A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE OGB VCNTY THROUGH
00Z...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES. CLOUDS CLEARING THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MAINLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281954
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
354 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE IS STILL FAIRLY ISOLATED. GIVEN
LACK OF ANY NOTABLE FORCING MECHANISMS...0-6 KM SHEAR OF LESS THAN
20 KT AND MLCAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG...THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LOW. BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS WOULD
BE ALONG BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...SUCH AS THE SEA BREEZE OR OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. DCAPE OF 1000 J/KG WOULD SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITHIN ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. HI RES
MODELS INDICATE THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY WANE WITH
LOSS OF INSOLATION LATE THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH CLEARING SKIES. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
EXPECTED WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO
UPPER 60S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
MOVE IN WITH NO PRECIPITATION MOST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECTED. A WEAK
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
VERY WARM AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...EXCEPT
SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COAST AS LIGHT WINDS TURN TO ONSHORE BY
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
BY LATE IN THE DAY THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK
UPPER FORCING ON THE EAST OF THE ADVANCING TROUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTION. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THAT REGION. HIGHS AGAIN VERY WARM IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90...EXCEPT COOLER AT THE COAST DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
VEERING TO A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING
MOISTURE/CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD...BUT REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME
WEAK UPPER IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW...BUT WITH LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND LOSS OF
HEATING/INSTABILITY...HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOWS AGAIN
MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE MOST UNSETTLED DAY OF THE PERIOD.
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY...SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN...NO STRONG
UPPER FORCING...THUS FEEL BEST CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY AFTERNOON
COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMUM HEATING/INSTABILITY. HIGHS A TAD COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO CLOUD COVER...IN THE MID 80S MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FILTER INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AND TRACKS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MID WEEK UNTIL SFC LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
THEN EXPECTED HEADING INTO LATE WEEK WHILE A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING AND
COVERAGE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT SO AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED SHOULD CONVECTION AFFECT THE TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECT TO PREVAIL.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
RETURNS WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE INFLUENCE AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER MORE TOWARD THE WEST LATE AS THIS
OCCURS WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR
LESS. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND LIKELY INTO MONDAY...BECOMING A BIT MORE
UNSETTLED AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THERE IS MODEL UNCERTAINTY BY LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTH...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND WILL LET THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE.


&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...ECT/RFM




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281844
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
244 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL HELP BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE TODAY AND SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIER BETWEEN UPPER SYSTEMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SEEMS TO BE LIMITING THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY
SHOWERS THAT HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CSRA AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS WHERE MOISTURE PROFILES AND INSTABILITY ARE MOST
FAVORABLE.

DIURNAL HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
80S COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE UPWARDS OF 1500-1750 J/KG
IN THE MOST UNSTABLE AREAS. THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH IMPROVING
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...GIVEN ALL OF THE DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE
CSRA AND EASTERN MIDLANDS.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND A DRIER WESTERLY
FLOW. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CLEARING TAKES PLACE. THEN...A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE EXITS THE AREA AS SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS
STILL WEST OF THE AREA. WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW PATTERN DO NOT
EXPECT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WARM DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS...AND STILL EXPECTING AFTERNOON
HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT ONLY FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM AT THIS TIME. MODELS REMAIN IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN START TO DIVERGE SOLUTIONS
AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AND
CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS SATURDAY...BUT BEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN FURTHER OFF TO
THE WEST IN THE UPSTATE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST BEGINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY WENT WITH A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CSRA AND EASTERN MIDLANDS. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KAGS/KDNL/KOGB...WITH JUST VICINITY SHOWERS AT KCAE/KCUB WHERE THE COVERAGE
OF STORMS SHOULD BE LESS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281844
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
244 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL HELP BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE TODAY AND SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIER BETWEEN UPPER SYSTEMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SEEMS TO BE LIMITING THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY
SHOWERS THAT HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CSRA AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS WHERE MOISTURE PROFILES AND INSTABILITY ARE MOST
FAVORABLE.

DIURNAL HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
80S COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE UPWARDS OF 1500-1750 J/KG
IN THE MOST UNSTABLE AREAS. THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH IMPROVING
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...GIVEN ALL OF THE DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE
CSRA AND EASTERN MIDLANDS.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND A DRIER WESTERLY
FLOW. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CLEARING TAKES PLACE. THEN...A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE EXITS THE AREA AS SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS
STILL WEST OF THE AREA. WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW PATTERN DO NOT
EXPECT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WARM DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS...AND STILL EXPECTING AFTERNOON
HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT ONLY FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM AT THIS TIME. MODELS REMAIN IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN START TO DIVERGE SOLUTIONS
AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AND
CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS SATURDAY...BUT BEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN FURTHER OFF TO
THE WEST IN THE UPSTATE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST BEGINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY WENT WITH A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CSRA AND EASTERN MIDLANDS. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KAGS/KDNL/KOGB...WITH JUST VICINITY SHOWERS AT KCAE/KCUB WHERE THE COVERAGE
OF STORMS SHOULD BE LESS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 281840
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
240 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

DRIER AIR IS SPREADING OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN END TO THE PRECIP ACROSS NORTH GA AND
IT WILL RAPIDLY END THE PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS EVENING.
THE DRY AND STABLE AIR WILL HOLD OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO MAINLY NORTH GEORGIA.
WITH A DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FEW CLOUDS...TEMPS
WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE REGION.

17


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED...AND ALSO A BIT
UNCERTAIN. LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SYSTEM STILL LOOKS LIKE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN RAMPING UP SATURDAY...PEAK SUNDAY AND
DIMINISH BY MONDAY. ALL-IN-ALL I HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS CYCLE...BUT HAVE LEFT THE
BASIC TRENDS UNCHANGED.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

20

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FCST PERIOD STARTS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE NORTHERN GULF
AND RETURN OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE FOCUSED NEAR A LINGERING WEDGE FRONT
OR OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN THE NORTH AND THERE IS SOME DECENT
PROGGED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS MIGHT BE
WARRANTED IN FUTURE UPDATES. STILL LOOKING TO HAVE GREATEST PRECIP
CHANCE/COVERAGE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD AS THE
UPPER FORCING/JET DYNAMICS PUSH A BIT CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. NOT QUITE AS MUCH AMPLITUDE TO THIS SYSTEM AS SEEN IN
PREVIOUS SUITES OF GUIDANCE AND THE SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS BEFORE...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH HOW
UNSTABLE THE ENVIRONMENT CAN GET WHILE DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE POSSIBLE. THE COMMON FLIES IN THE OINTMENT THAT COULD
BUST PRECIP FCST WOULD BE IF ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION DISRUPTS
MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE NORTHERN GULF OR WEAK PERTURBATIONS AND
REMNANT CLOUD COVERAGE MUDDLES THE SENSITIVE ATMOSPHERE.

FORECAST ACTUALLY GETS TRICKIER MONDAY AND BEYOND GIVEN LARGE
DISCREPANCY AND INCONSISTENCY AMONG LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW
END CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS ACCORDINGLY...THOUGH IF ANY PERIOD LOOKS
TO HAVE SOME TYPE OF CONSENSUS FOR SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL IT WOULD
BE LATE TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...THOUGH STILL BIG DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND SHORTWAVE
POTENTIAL.

TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD TREND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN NEAR NORMS BEYOND...THOUGH EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS
MADE PER AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES.

BAKER

&&


AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY SCT ACROSS ATL/AHN AND SCT-BKN ACROSS CSG/MCN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ALL AREAS GOING MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. A CU FIELD
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG IN THE CSG/MCN AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GA WITH THE WHOLE
AREA SINKING INTO SOUTH GA BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST
TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT
WESTERLY TO CALM TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          60  89  59  84 /  10   5  10  30
ATLANTA         63  87  66  82 /  10   5  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     56  83  55  78 /  10   5  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    58  88  62  81 /  10   5  20  30
COLUMBUS        64  90  66  85 /  20  10  10  20
GAINESVILLE     61  87  62  80 /  10   5  20  30
MACON           62  90  62  87 /  20  10  10  20
ROME            57  89  61  81 /  10   5  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  57  87  61  82 /  10  10  10  20
VIDALIA         66  91  67  89 /  40   5   5  20

&&


.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...17




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281729
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
129 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS A WEAK FRONT/AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SAGS SOUTHWARD TO NC/SC BORDER. EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY TODAY AS THERE REALLY IS NOT ANY NOTABLE
SYNOPTIC FORCING FEATURES AND MODELS ARE EVEN SHOWING HEIGHTS
RISING ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY. HI RESOLUTION MODELS VARY ON
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...AND NONE OF THEM
WERE DOING ESPECIALLY WELL COMPARED TO RADAR TRENDS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST CONSISTENT SCENARIO WOULD BE CONVECTION MOVING
INTO THE GEORGIA ZONES FROM UPSTREAM AND SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MAINTAINED CURRENT POP
SCHEME FEATURING ONLY CHANCE POPS. SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT LOOK
THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 15 KT AND LATEST SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DEPICTS MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG...HOWEVER IT IS
CERTAINLY NONZERO. DCAPE OF 1000 J/KG WOULD SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS
WITHIN ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE WERE TO POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY T/TDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
COAST THIS EVENING AND OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE SOME
CLEARING OCCUR AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THINS WITH TIME. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 AT THE
COAST.

FRIDAY...WHAT IS LEFT OF A WEAK FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY
WITH DRYER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WARM TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
WEST/NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPING WIND ALONG WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE
AREA WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD FALL 1-2
DEGREES SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS IN CHARLESTON SC AND SAVANNAH GA...BUT
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED SHOULD TRENDS INDICATE SLIGHTLY
WARMER CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...IN THE MID/UPPER
60S.

SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT TRENDS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS WELL
INLAND SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
WARM...PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS AND POSSIBLY AROUND
90 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD...IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT...PWATS WILL APPROACH 1.5
INCHES FOR MOST AREAS WHILE TEMPS PEAK IN THE MID 80S. H5 SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO THE NORTH
WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FILTER INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AND TRACKS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MID WEEK UNTIL SFC LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
THEN EXPECTED HEADING INTO LATE WEEK WHILE A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES
FOR IMPACTS LOOK TO OCCUR AT KSAV LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP WITH BEST TIMING. ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED AS TRENDS BECOME BETTER DEFINED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
PUSH INTO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY AS THE REGION REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS LOOK TO MAX OUT AT
10-15 KT TODAY...EXCEPT CLOSER TO 15 KT IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
AND ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS A ROBUST SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO PINCH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FOR ALL BUT THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG AS WELL AS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COASTAL WATERS. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THE GUST FREQUENCY TO 25 KT
WILL BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, BUT THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE
REEVALUATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW 10
KT TO BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT BECOME ONSHORE IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD UP TO 2-
4 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LEVELS...PEAKING AROUND 15 KT DURING FROPA. SEAS
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KFFC 281727
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
127 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016/

UPDATE...
DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS NORTH GA. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH GA. THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE ALSO
CAUGHT ON TO THIS AND ARE NO LONGER SHOWING ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS
OVER NORTH GA FOR THE REST OF TODAY. HOWEVER CAPES REMAIN HIGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR THIS REASON WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH GA...GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE FALL LINE. SOUTH OF THE FALL LINE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES.
BY THIS EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA EXCEPT
FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE COLD FRONT TO THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TODAYS FORECAST IS
LOW...AS MODELS...SYNOPTIC AND HI-RES DON`T HAVE A REALLY GOOD
HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

WV LOOP SHOWS DRY AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS
MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...EVEN NORTH OF 20 DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S SO THE
AIRMASS IS STILL QUITE MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GA THIS MORNING...BUT
RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE ARE
SOME VERY MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW...BUT NOTHING VERY STRONG.
MODELS ARE NOT PROGGING A STRONG PIECE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY TO
TRAVERSE THE FLOW EITHER.

LOW PRESSURE WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THIS WILL STRETCH THE COLD
FRONT/STALLED BOUNDARY OUT ALMOST EAST TO WEST. THE LOW PRESSURE
WAVE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT NEARS THE CAROLINA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

HI RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH CONVECTIVE PATTERNS THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SEE VERY LITTLE REASON TODAY WILL BE ANY
DIFFERENT. THE LOCAL WRF...ARW AND HRRR ALL HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY. THE HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWFA...WHILE THE LOCAL WRF/ARW DEVELOPS THE
CONVECTION A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH CWFA.
HOWEVER...THE ARW AND WRF CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN COVERAGE.
(THE ARW PERFORMED A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE-WISE FOR WEDNESDAY.) THE
ONE UNIVERSAL MESSAGE WITHIN THE HI-RES MODELS IS THAT THE BULK OF
ANY PRECIP TODAY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...SO HAVE
GONE WITH THIS TREND. SINCE THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DIFFERS
BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS...AM KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY BUT
THE HIGHEST NUMBERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE
CWFA.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FCST PERIOD STARTS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE NORTHERN GULF
AND RETURN OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE FOCUSED NEAR A LINGERING WEDGE FRONT
OR OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN THE NORTH AND THERE IS SOME DECENT
PROGGED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS MIGHT BE
WARRANTED IN FUTURE UPDATES. STILL LOOKING TO HAVE GREATEST PRECIP
CHANCE/COVERAGE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD AS THE
UPPER FORCING/JET DYNAMICS PUSH A BIT CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. NOT QUITE AS MUCH AMPLITUDE TO THIS SYSTEM AS SEEN IN
PREVIOUS SUITES OF GUIDANCE AND THE SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS BEFORE...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH HOW
UNSTABLE THE ENVIRONMENT CAN GET WHILE DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE POSSIBLE. THE COMMON FLIES IN THE OINTMENT THAT COULD
BUST PRECIP FCST WOULD BE IF ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION DISRUPTS
MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE NORTHERN GULF OR WEAK PERTURBATIONS AND
REMNANT CLOUD COVERAGE MUDDLES THE SENSITIVE ATMOSPHERE.

FORECAST ACTUALLY GETS TRICKIER MONDAY AND BEYOND GIVEN LARGE
DISCREPANCY AND INCONSISTENCY AMONG LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW
END CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS ACCORDINGLY...THOUGH IF ANY PERIOD LOOKS
TO HAVE SOME TYPE OF CONSENSUS FOR SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL IT WOULD
BE LATE TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...THOUGH STILL BIG DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND SHORTWAVE
POTENTIAL.

TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD TREND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN NEAR NORMS BEYOND...THOUGH EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS
MADE PER AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES.

BAKER


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY SCT ACROSS ATL/AHN AND SCT-BKN ACROSS CSG/MCN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ALL AREAS GOING MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. A CU FIELD
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG IN THE CSG/MCN AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GA WITH THE WHOLE
AREA SINKING INTO SOUTH GA BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST
TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT
WESTERLY TO CALM TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  61  89  61 /  20  10   5  10
ATLANTA         81  62  86  65 /  20  10   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     79  55  82  57 /  20  10   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    81  58  85  61 /  20  10   5  20
COLUMBUS        83  64  88  66 /  50  20  10  10
GAINESVILLE     81  61  85  62 /  20  10   5  20
MACON           84  63  88  63 /  30  20  10  10
ROME            83  57  86  59 /  20  10   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  81  58  86  60 /  20  10  10  10
VIDALIA         87  67  89  66 /  50  40   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...17




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281723
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
123 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL HELP BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE TODAY AND SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIER BETWEEN UPPER SYSTEMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BE MAINLY ZONAL
TODAY...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA...WHILE A LEE-SIDE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS.

SOME DESTABILIZATION HAS TAKEN PLACE GIVEN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLIER TODAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED NICELY AND SHOULD REACH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST AREAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN MIDLANDS. COVERAGE
SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SOME OF THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS
SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS IN VICINITY OF THE LEE-
SIDE TROUGH. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO
SHOW ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG ANOTHER SURFACE
BOUNDARY...THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...SO HAVE KEPT THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AROUND 30-40 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS
THE CSRA...AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN MIDLANDS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING GIVEN SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
RISING TO 1500-1750 J/KG OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
ARE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT AS WELL. THE AREA REMAINS
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS DISPLAYED A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING TONIGHT
WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEARING THE NORTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS INDICATED A LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH A
FLAT FLOW AND LITTLE MOISTURE. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE LOW.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE EXITS THE AREA AS SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS
STILL WEST OF THE AREA. WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW PATTERN DO NOT
EXPECT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WARM DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS...AND STILL EXPECTING AFTERNOON
HIGHS AROUND 90. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ONLY FALLING
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM AT THIS TIME. MODELS REMAIN IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN START TO DIVERGE SOLUTIONS
AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AND
CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS SATURDAY...BUT BEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN FURTHER OFF TO
THE WEST IN THE UPSTATE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST BEGINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY WENT WITH A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CSRA AND EASTERN MIDLANDS. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KAGS/KDNL/KOGB...WITH JUST VICINITY SHOWERS AT KCAE/KCUB WHERE THE COVERAGE
OF STORMS SHOULD BE LESS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 281543
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1143 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS NORTH GA. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH GA. THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE ALSO
CAUGHT ON TO THIS AND ARE NO LONGER SHOWING ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS
OVER NORTH GA FOR THE REST OF TODAY. HOWEVER CAPES REMAIN HIGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR THIS REASON WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH GA...GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE FALL LINE. SOUTH OF THE FALL LINE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES.
BY THIS EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA EXCEPT
FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE COLD FRONT TO THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TODAYS FORECAST IS
LOW...AS MODELS...SYNOPTIC AND HI-RES DON`T HAVE A REALLY GOOD
HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

WV LOOP SHOWS DRY AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS
MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...EVEN NORTH OF 20 DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S SO THE
AIRMASS IS STILL QUITE MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GA THIS MORNING...BUT
RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE ARE
SOME VERY MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW...BUT NOTHING VERY STRONG.
MODELS ARE NOT PROGGING A STRONG PIECE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY TO
TRAVERSE THE FLOW EITHER.

LOW PRESSURE WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THIS WILL STRETCH THE COLD
FRONT/STALLED BOUNDARY OUT ALMOST EAST TO WEST. THE LOW PRESSURE
WAVE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT NEARS THE CAROLINA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

HI RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH CONVECTIVE PATTERNS THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SEE VERY LITTLE REASON TODAY WILL BE ANY
DIFFERENT. THE LOCAL WRF...ARW AND HRRR ALL HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY. THE HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWFA...WHILE THE LOCAL WRF/ARW DEVELOPS THE
CONVECTION A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH CWFA.
HOWEVER...THE ARW AND WRF CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN COVERAGE.
(THE ARW PERFORMED A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE-WISE FOR WEDNESDAY.) THE
ONE UNIVERSAL MESSAGE WITHIN THE HI-RES MODELS IS THAT THE BULK OF
ANY PRECIP TODAY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...SO HAVE
GONE WITH THIS TREND. SINCE THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DIFFERS
BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS...AM KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY BUT
THE HIGHEST NUMBERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE
CWFA.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FCST PERIOD STARTS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE NORTHERN GULF
AND RETURN OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE FOCUSED NEAR A LINGERING WEDGE FRONT
OR OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN THE NORTH AND THERE IS SOME DECENT
PROGGED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS MIGHT BE
WARRANTED IN FUTURE UPDATES. STILL LOOKING TO HAVE GREATEST PRECIP
CHANCE/COVERAGE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD AS THE
UPPER FORCING/JET DYNAMICS PUSH A BIT CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. NOT QUITE AS MUCH AMPLITUDE TO THIS SYSTEM AS SEEN IN
PREVIOUS SUITES OF GUIDANCE AND THE SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS BEFORE...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH HOW
UNSTABLE THE ENVIRONMENT CAN GET WHILE DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE POSSIBLE. THE COMMON FLIES IN THE OINTMENT THAT COULD
BUST PRECIP FCST WOULD BE IF ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION DISRUPTS
MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE NORTHERN GULF OR WEAK PERTURBATIONS AND
REMNANT CLOUD COVERAGE MUDDLES THE SENSITIVE ATMOSPHERE.

FORECAST ACTUALLY GETS TRICKIER MONDAY AND BEYOND GIVEN LARGE
DISCREPANCY AND INCONSISTENCY AMONG LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW
END CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS ACCORDINGLY...THOUGH IF ANY PERIOD LOOKS
TO HAVE SOME TYPE OF CONSENSUS FOR SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL IT WOULD
BE LATE TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...THOUGH STILL BIG DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND SHORTWAVE
POTENTIAL.

TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD TREND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN NEAR NORMS BEYOND...THOUGH EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS
MADE PER AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES.

BAKER

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD TO ATL. CIGS MAY BOUNCE LIFR/IFR FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT SHOULD GO MVFR BY 15Z.HI RES MODELS HAVE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIP TO THE SOUTH TODAY...BUT ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE...BUT A SHIFT TO THE NW WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW BEHIND A FRONT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  61  89  61 /  20  10   5   5
ATLANTA         81  62  86  65 /  20  10   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     79  55  82  57 /  20  10   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    81  58  85  61 /  20  10   5  10
COLUMBUS        83  64  88  66 /  50  20  10  10
GAINESVILLE     81  61  85  62 /  20  10   5  10
MACON           84  63  88  63 /  30  20   5  10
ROME            83  57  86  59 /  20  10   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  81  58  86  60 /  20  10  10  10
VIDALIA         87  67  89  66 /  50  40  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...17




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281525
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1125 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL HELP BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE TODAY AND SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIER BETWEEN UPPER SYSTEMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BE MAINLY ZONAL
TODAY...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DISTURBANCE WITHIN
THAT ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION /NVA/ AND A DRIER
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SURFACE...A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA...WHILE A LEE-SIDE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS
THIS MORNING...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE WITH
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME
DESTABILIZATION AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST AREAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS IN VICINITY OF THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY...THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE
IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS...SO HAVE KEPT THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AROUND
30-40 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE CSRA...AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN
MIDLANDS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING GIVEN SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
RISING TO 1500-1750 J/KG OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
ARE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT AS WELL. THE AREA REMAINS
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS DISPLAYED A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING TONIGHT
WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEARING THE NORTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS INDICATED A LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH A
FLAT FLOW AND LITTLE MOISTURE. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE LOW.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE EXITS THE AREA AS SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS
STILL WEST OF THE AREA. WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW PATTERN DO NOT
EXPECT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WARM DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS...AND STILL EXPECTING AFTERNOON
HIGHS AROUND 90. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ONLY FALLING
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM AT THIS TIME. MODELS REMAIN IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN START TO DIVERGE SOLUTIONS
AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AND
CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS SATURDAY...BUT BEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN FURTHER OFF TO
THE WEST IN THE UPSTATE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST BEGINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY WENT WITH A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR
IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

LATER TODAY...ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD END DURING THE
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281427
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1027 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS A WEAK FRONT/AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SAGS SOUTHWARD TO NC/SC BORDER. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE THAT HAS
GENERATED SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND OFF THE COAST. BEHIND
THAT...MODELS ARE SHOWING HEIGHTS RISING ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY.
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION WILL BE QUITE TRICKY TODAY. THERE REALLY
IS NOT NOTABLE SYNOPTIC FORCING FEATURES AND WITH PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GLOBAL AND HI
RESOLUTION MODELS VARY ON COVERAGE AND TIMING OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING LATER. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MAINTAINED CURRENT POP
SCHEME FEATURING ONLY CHANCE POPS. AS NEW MODEL DATA COMES IN AND
TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED...THE FORECAST WILL BE REFINED.
CERTAINLY COULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS. MOISTURE HAS CERTAINLY INCREASED FROM
YESTERDAY WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES. MODIFYING THE 12Z KCHS
RAOB...CAPE IS AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -6C.
0-6 KM SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ONLY AROUND 15-20 KT ON
AVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

MAIN CHANGES WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE WERE TO POPS TO REFLECT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND WITH SKY COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
COAST THIS EVENING AND OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE SOME
CLEARING OCCUR AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THINS WITH TIME. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 AT THE
COAST.

FRIDAY...WHAT IS LEFT OF A WEAK FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY
WITH DRYER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WARM TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
WEST/NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPING WIND ALONG WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE
AREA WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD FALL 1-2
DEGREES SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS IN CHARLESTON SC AND SAVANNAH GA...BUT
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED SHOULD TRENDS INDICATE SLIGHTLY
WARMER CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...IN THE MID/UPPER
60S.

SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT TRENDS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS WELL
INLAND SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
WARM...PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS AND POSSIBLY AROUND
90 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD...IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT...PWATS WILL APPROACH 1.5
INCHES FOR MOST AREAS WHILE TEMPS PEAK IN THE MID 80S. H5 SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO THE NORTH
WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FILTER INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AND TRACKS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MID WEEK UNTIL SFC LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
THEN EXPECTED HEADING INTO LATE WEEK WHILE A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES
FOR IMPACTS LOOK TO OCCUR AT KSAV...ROUGHLY 20-23Z. INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THAT TIME.
CONFIDENCE IN TSTMS IMPACTING KCHS REMAINS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A
MENTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
PUSH INTO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY AS THE REGION REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS LOOK TO MAX OUT AT
10-15 KT TODAY...EXCEPT CLOSER TO 15 KT IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
AND ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS A ROBUST SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO PINCH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FOR ALL BUT THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG AS WELL AS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COASTAL WATERS. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THE GUST FREQUENCY TO 25 KT
WILL BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, BUT THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE
REEVALUATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW 10
KT TO BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT BECOME ONSHORE IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD UP TO 2-
4 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LEVELS...PEAKING AROUND 15 KT DURING FROPA. SEAS
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281412
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1012 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL HELP BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE TODAY AND SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIER BETWEEN UPPER SYSTEMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BE MAINLY ZONAL
TODAY...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DISTURBANCE WITHIN
THAT ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION /NVA/ AND A DRIER
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SURFACE...A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA...WHILE A LEE-SIDE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS
THIS MORNING...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE WITH
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME
DESTABILIZATION AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST AREAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS IN VICINITY OF THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY...THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE
IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS...SO HAVE KEPT THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AROUND
30-40 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE CSRA...AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN
MIDLANDS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING GIVEN SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
RISING TO 1500-1750 J/KG OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
ARE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT AS WELL. THE AREA REMAINS
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.

TONIGHT...THE MODELS DISPLAYED A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING TONIGHT
WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEARING THE NORTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS INDICATED A LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH A
FLAT FLOW AND LITTLE MOISTURE. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE LOW.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAYED A SURFACE TROUGH OR FRONT LINGERING IN THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INDICATED H85 NORTHWEST
FLOW AND H5 RIDGING. THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT HAVING LITTLE
MOISTURE. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW. IT WILL BE
HOT FRIDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTED
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S. ALSO FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS FOR THE
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW. THE MODELS DISPLAY GREATER MOISTURE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
DRYING AND RIDGING IS DEPICTED FOR TUESDAY. MOISTURE MAY RETURN
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE MOS DISPLAYS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR
IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

LATER TODAY...ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD END DURING THE
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 281134
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
734 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE COLD FRONT TO THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TODAYS FORECAST IS
LOW...AS MODELS...SYNOPTIC AND HI-RES DON`T HAVE A REALLY GOOD
HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

WV LOOP SHOWS DRY AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS
MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...EVEN NORTH OF 20 DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S SO THE
AIRMASS IS STILL QUITE MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GA THIS MORNING...BUT
RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE ARE
SOME VERY MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW...BUT NOTHING VERY STRONG.
MODELS ARE NOT PROGGING A STRONG PIECE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY TO
TRAVERSE THE FLOW EITHER.

LOW PRESSURE WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THIS WILL STRETCH THE COLD
FRONT/STALLED BOUNDARY OUT ALMOST EAST TO WEST. THE LOW PRESSURE
WAVE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT NEARS THE CAROLINA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

HI RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH CONVECTIVE PATTERNS THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SEE VERY LITTLE REASON TODAY WILL BE ANY
DIFFERENT. THE LOCAL WRF...ARW AND HRRR ALL HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY. THE HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWFA...WHILE THE LOCAL WRF/ARW DEVELOPS THE
CONVECTION A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH CWFA.
HOWEVER...THE ARW AND WRF CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN COVERAGE.
(THE ARW PERFORMED A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE-WISE FOR WEDNESDAY.) THE
ONE UNIVERSAL MESSAGE WITHIN THE HI-RES MODELS IS THAT THE BULK OF
ANY PRECIP TODAY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...SO HAVE
GONE WITH THIS TREND. SINCE THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DIFFERS
BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS...AM KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY BUT
THE HIGHEST NUMBERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE
CWFA.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FCST PERIOD STARTS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE NORTHERN GULF
AND RETURN OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE FOCUSED NEAR A LINGERING WEDGE FRONT
OR OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN THE NORTH AND THERE IS SOME DECENT
PROGGED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS MIGHT BE
WARRANTED IN FUTURE UPDATES. STILL LOOKING TO HAVE GREATEST PRECIP
CHANCE/COVERAGE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD AS THE
UPPER FORCING/JET DYNAMICS PUSH A BIT CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. NOT QUITE AS MUCH AMPLITUDE TO THIS SYSTEM AS SEEN IN
PREVIOUS SUITES OF GUIDANCE AND THE SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS BEFORE...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH HOW
UNSTABLE THE ENVIRONMENT CAN GET WHILE DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE POSSIBLE. THE COMMON FLIES IN THE OINTMENT THAT COULD
BUST PRECIP FCST WOULD BE IF ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION DISRUPTS
MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE NORTHERN GULF OR WEAK PERTURBATIONS AND
REMNANT CLOUD COVERAGE MUDDLES THE SENSITIVE ATMOSPHERE.

FORECAST ACTUALLY GETS TRICKIER MONDAY AND BEYOND GIVEN LARGE
DISCREPANCY AND INCONSISTENCY AMONG LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW
END CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS ACCORDINGLY...THOUGH IF ANY PERIOD LOOKS
TO HAVE SOME TYPE OF CONSENSUS FOR SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL IT WOULD
BE LATE TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...THOUGH STILL BIG DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND SHORTWAVE
POTENTIAL.

TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD TREND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN NEAR NORMS BEYOND...THOUGH EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS
MADE PER AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES.

BAKER



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD TO ATL. CIGS MAY BOUNCE LIFR/IFR FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT SHOULD GO MVFR BY 15Z.HI RES MODELS HAVE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIP TO THE SOUTH TODAY...BUT ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE...BUT A SHIFT TO THE NW WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW BEHIND A FRONT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  61  89  61 /  40  20   5   5
ATLANTA         81  62  86  65 /  40  20   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     79  55  82  57 /  40  10   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    81  58  85  61 /  40  10   5  10
COLUMBUS        83  64  88  66 /  50  20  10  10
GAINESVILLE     81  61  85  62 /  40  10   5  10
MACON           84  63  88  63 /  50  30   5  10
ROME            83  57  86  59 /  30  10   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  81  58  86  60 /  50  20  10  10
VIDALIA         87  67  89  66 /  50  40  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 281134
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
734 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE COLD FRONT TO THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TODAYS FORECAST IS
LOW...AS MODELS...SYNOPTIC AND HI-RES DON`T HAVE A REALLY GOOD
HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

WV LOOP SHOWS DRY AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS
MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...EVEN NORTH OF 20 DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S SO THE
AIRMASS IS STILL QUITE MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GA THIS MORNING...BUT
RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE ARE
SOME VERY MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW...BUT NOTHING VERY STRONG.
MODELS ARE NOT PROGGING A STRONG PIECE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY TO
TRAVERSE THE FLOW EITHER.

LOW PRESSURE WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THIS WILL STRETCH THE COLD
FRONT/STALLED BOUNDARY OUT ALMOST EAST TO WEST. THE LOW PRESSURE
WAVE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT NEARS THE CAROLINA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

HI RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH CONVECTIVE PATTERNS THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SEE VERY LITTLE REASON TODAY WILL BE ANY
DIFFERENT. THE LOCAL WRF...ARW AND HRRR ALL HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY. THE HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWFA...WHILE THE LOCAL WRF/ARW DEVELOPS THE
CONVECTION A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH CWFA.
HOWEVER...THE ARW AND WRF CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN COVERAGE.
(THE ARW PERFORMED A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE-WISE FOR WEDNESDAY.) THE
ONE UNIVERSAL MESSAGE WITHIN THE HI-RES MODELS IS THAT THE BULK OF
ANY PRECIP TODAY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...SO HAVE
GONE WITH THIS TREND. SINCE THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DIFFERS
BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS...AM KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY BUT
THE HIGHEST NUMBERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE
CWFA.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FCST PERIOD STARTS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE NORTHERN GULF
AND RETURN OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE FOCUSED NEAR A LINGERING WEDGE FRONT
OR OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN THE NORTH AND THERE IS SOME DECENT
PROGGED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS MIGHT BE
WARRANTED IN FUTURE UPDATES. STILL LOOKING TO HAVE GREATEST PRECIP
CHANCE/COVERAGE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD AS THE
UPPER FORCING/JET DYNAMICS PUSH A BIT CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. NOT QUITE AS MUCH AMPLITUDE TO THIS SYSTEM AS SEEN IN
PREVIOUS SUITES OF GUIDANCE AND THE SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS BEFORE...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH HOW
UNSTABLE THE ENVIRONMENT CAN GET WHILE DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE POSSIBLE. THE COMMON FLIES IN THE OINTMENT THAT COULD
BUST PRECIP FCST WOULD BE IF ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION DISRUPTS
MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE NORTHERN GULF OR WEAK PERTURBATIONS AND
REMNANT CLOUD COVERAGE MUDDLES THE SENSITIVE ATMOSPHERE.

FORECAST ACTUALLY GETS TRICKIER MONDAY AND BEYOND GIVEN LARGE
DISCREPANCY AND INCONSISTENCY AMONG LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW
END CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS ACCORDINGLY...THOUGH IF ANY PERIOD LOOKS
TO HAVE SOME TYPE OF CONSENSUS FOR SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL IT WOULD
BE LATE TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...THOUGH STILL BIG DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND SHORTWAVE
POTENTIAL.

TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD TREND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN NEAR NORMS BEYOND...THOUGH EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS
MADE PER AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES.

BAKER



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD TO ATL. CIGS MAY BOUNCE LIFR/IFR FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT SHOULD GO MVFR BY 15Z.HI RES MODELS HAVE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIP TO THE SOUTH TODAY...BUT ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE...BUT A SHIFT TO THE NW WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW BEHIND A FRONT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  61  89  61 /  40  20   5   5
ATLANTA         81  62  86  65 /  40  20   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     79  55  82  57 /  40  10   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    81  58  85  61 /  40  10   5  10
COLUMBUS        83  64  88  66 /  50  20  10  10
GAINESVILLE     81  61  85  62 /  40  10   5  10
MACON           84  63  88  63 /  50  30   5  10
ROME            83  57  86  59 /  30  10   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  81  58  86  60 /  50  20  10  10
VIDALIA         87  67  89  66 /  50  40  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281050
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
650 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER IS GENERATING SOME VERY
LIGHT/BRIEF SPRINKLES THIS MORNING. NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS
BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR. THIS AREA OF SPRINKLES WILL MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES THROUGH 9 AM TO COVER.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING OUT A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED.
RAISED INLAND HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

AN IMPRESSIVE STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS DRAWING MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO, ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA, THEN
GRADUALLY ARCS BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE SPINNING OVER
NORTHWEST IOWA. THIS MOISTURE CHANNEL WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
WITH A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT POISED TO CROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATER IN THE DAY. THE APPROACHING
BAND OF CIRROSTRATUS AND ALTOSTRATUS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING
AS THE MOISTURE CHANNEL MOVES EAST AND THE UPPER LOW PROPAGATES
FARTHER TO THE NORTH, SO EXPECT QUITE A NUMBER OF BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER TO OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE. WARMER 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
COUPLED WITH MODEST LEVELS OF INSOLATION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN POISED TO
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 FOR MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
COAST. THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER ROBUST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL
KEEP THE BEACHES HIGHS LIMITED TO THE LOWER-MID 70S.

THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST IS LESS THAN CLEAR AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE AT BEST. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY (SBCAPE 1700-2100
J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES -4 TO -6C) AS DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE MID
60S AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 80S. HOWEVER, LOW-
LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH MODIFIED
RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING MEAGER 0-3KM CAPE VALUES OF 50-80 J/KG.
THIS SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME BEING
SUSTAINED WITHOUT THE AID OF SOME SORT OF SYNOPTIC OR MESOSCALE
FORCING MECHANISM HELPING TO AUGMENT PARCEL LIFT TO THE AREA WHERE
A GREATER AMOUNT OF CAPE WILL BE MORE READILY AVAILABLE.
SYNOPTICALLY, MODEL VERTICAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL VELOCITIES TODAY WITH THE AREA STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT, YET WEAKENING, RIDGE OF ALOFT.
HOWEVER, AT LEAST ONE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION
YESTERDAY EVENING WAS OBSERVED OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA SEVERAL HOURS AGO BEFORE IT WAS MASKED BY THE WEAK LOW-
LEVEL WIND FIELD. SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE CAMS SUGGEST CONVECTION
COULD FOCUS ALONG THIS MESOSCALE BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOULD CONVECTION FIRE HERE AND PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS, THEN A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS VIA MESOSCALE BOUNDARY PROCESSES.
THIS IS OBVIOUSLY A HIGHLY CONDITIONAL FORECAST AS MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN INITIATES. WILL MAINTAIN A
FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE POP FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH GRIDDED POPS ONLY
MAXING OUT IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THERE IS A NON-ZERO RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY ISOLATED GIVEN WEAK SHEAR PROFILES
AND MEAGER 0-3KM CAPE. EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING DRY SLOT WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
WITH MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOWING DCAPE RISING TO 1200-1400 J/KG.
HOWEVER, THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO
WHETHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS CAN PUSH PARCELS TO THE
AREA WHERE HIGHER CAPE WILL BE MORE READILY AVAILABLE FOR
MORE INTENSE PRECIPITATION LOADING. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL
BE MORE OF A SECONDARY HAZARD TODAY WITH CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C
LAYER ONLY AVERAGING 500-650 J/KG. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
COAST THIS EVENING AND OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE SOME
CLEARING OCCUR AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THINS WITH TIME. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 AT THE
COAST.

FRIDAY...WHAT IS LEFT OF A WEAK FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY
WITH DRYER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WARM TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
WEST/NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPING WIND ALONG WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE
AREA WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD FALL 1-2
DEGREES SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS IN CHARLESTON SC AND SAVANNAH GA...BUT
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED SHOULD TRENDS INDICATE SLIGHTLY
WARMER CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...IN THE MID/UPPER
60S.

SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT TRENDS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS WELL
INLAND SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
WARM...PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS AND POSSIBLY AROUND
90 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD...IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT...PWATS WILL APPROACH 1.5
INCHES FOR MOST AREAS WHILE TEMPS PEAK IN THE MID 80S. H5 SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO THE NORTH
WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FILTER INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AND TRACKS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MID WEEK UNTIL SFC LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
THEN EXPECTED HEADING INTO LATE WEEK WHILE A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES
FOR IMPACTS LOOK TO OCCUR AT KSAV...ROUGHLY 20-23Z. INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THAT TIME.
CONFIDENCE IN TSTMS IMPACTING KCHS REMAINS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A
MENTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
PUSH INTO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY AS THE REGION REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS LOOK TO MAX OUT AT
10-15 KT TODAY...EXCEPT CLOSER TO 15 KT IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
AND ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS A ROBUST SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO PINCH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FOR ALL BUT THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG AS WELL AS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COASTAL WATERS. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THE GUST FREQUENCY TO 25 KT
WILL BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, BUT THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE
REEVALUATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW 10
KT TO BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT BECOME ONSHORE IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD UP TO 2-
4 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LEVELS...PEAKING AROUND 15 KT DURING FROPA. SEAS
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/DPB




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281029
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
629 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL HELP BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE TODAY AND SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIER BETWEEN UPPER SYSTEMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
MODELS SHOW A LEE-SIDE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH HEATING TODAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THE LEAD MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS SUPPORT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAKER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN THE FLAT FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS
INDICATE MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW DURING MUCH OF TODAY BEHIND THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED. THE GFS AND NAM MOS POPS HAVE TRENDED LOWER. THE HRRR
SUGGESTED SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TODAY. THE NAM DISPLAYED SURFACE-BASED LI/S
NEAR -8. THIS INSTABILITY PLUS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AIDING DOWNDRAFTS
SUGGESTED DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO FAVORED HAIL. IT SHOULD BE BREEZY WITH STRONG
MIXING TODAY. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL AND GFS LAMP
INDICATED GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

THE MODELS DISPLAYED A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING TONIGHT WITH THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEARING THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MODELS INDICATED A LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH A FLAT FLOW AND
LITTLE MOISTURE. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE LOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAYED A SURFACE TROUGH OR FRONT LINGERING IN THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INDICATED H85 NORTHWEST
FLOW AND H5 RIDGING. THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT HAVING LITTLE
MOISTURE. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW. IT WILL BE
HOT FRIDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTED
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S. ALSO FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS FOR THE
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW. THE MODELS DISPLAY GREATER MOISTURE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
DRYING AND RIDGING IS DEPICTED FOR TUESDAY. MOISTURE MAY RETURN
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE MOS DISPLAYS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
BRIEF MVFR IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

LATEST REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM NEAR CLT TO SAV MOVING EASTWARD. THESE SHOWERS MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT SOME OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. LATER
TODAY...ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY
MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD DURING THE EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281002
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
602 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL HELP BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE TODAY AND SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIER BETWEEN UPPER SYSTEMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
MODELS SHOW A LEE-SIDE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH HEATING TODAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THE LEAD MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS SUPPORT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAKER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN THE FLAT FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS
INDICATE MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW DURING MUCH OF TODAY BEHIND THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED. THE GFS AND NAM MOS POPS HAVE TRENDED LOWER. THE HRRR
SUGGESTED SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TODAY. THE NAM DISPLAYED SURFACE-BASED LI/S
NEAR -8. THIS INSTABILITY PLUS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AIDING DOWNDRAFTS
SUGGESTED DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO FAVORED HAIL. IT SHOULD BE BREEZY WITH STRONG
MIXING TODAY. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL AND GFS LAMP
INDICATED GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

THE MODELS DISPLAYED A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING TONIGHT WITH THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEARING THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MODELS INDICATED A LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH A FLAT FLOW AND
LITTLE MOISTURE. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE LOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAYED A SURFACE TROUGH OR FRONT LINGERING IN THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INDICATED H85 NORTHWEST
FLOW AND H5 RIDGING. THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT HAVING LITTLE
MOISTURE. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW. IT WILL BE
HOT FRIDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTED
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S. ALSO FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS FOR THE
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW. THE MODELS DISPLAY GREATER MOISTURE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
DRYING AND RIDGING IS DEPICTED FOR TUESDAY. MOISTURE MAY RETURN
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE MOS DISPLAYS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z.

HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. LATEST REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWING SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE INDICATED MVFR CIGS WITH VCSH
ACROSS THE CSRA AFTER 09Z. HRRR SHOWING SHOWERS SLOWLY FALLING
APART OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATER TODAY...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 280948
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
548 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL HELP BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE TODAY AND SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIER BETWEEN UPPER SYSTEMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
MODELS SHOW A LEE-SIDE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH HEATING TODAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THE LEAD MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS SUPPORT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAKER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN THE FLAT FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS
INDICATE MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW DURING MUCH OF TODAY BEHIND THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED. THE GFS AND NAM MOS POPS HAVE TRENDED LOWER. THE HRRR
SUGGESTED SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TODAY. THE NAM DISPLAYED SURFACE-BASED LI/S
NEAR -8. THIS INSTABILITY PLUS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AIDING DOWNDRAFTS
SUGGESTED DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO FAVORED HAIL. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE.

THE MODELS DISPLAYED A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING TONIGHT WITH THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEARING THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MODELS INDICATED A LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH A FLAT FLOW AND
LITTLE MOISTURE. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE LOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAYED A SURFACE TROUGH OR FRONT LINGERING IN THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INDICATED H85 NORTHWEST
FLOW AND H5 RIDGING. THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT HAVING LITTLE
MOISTURE. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW. IT WILL BE
HOT FRIDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTED
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S. ALSO FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS FOR THE
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW. THE MODELS DISPLAY GREATER MOISTURE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
DRYING AND RIDGING IS DEPICTED FOR TUESDAY. MOISTURE MAY RETURN
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE MOS DISPLAYS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z.

HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. LATEST REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWING SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE INDICATED MVFR CIGS WITH VCSH
ACROSS THE CSRA AFTER 09Z. HRRR SHOWING SHOWERS SLOWLY FALLING
APART OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATER TODAY...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 280757
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
357 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL HELP BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE TODAY AND ON SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIER BETWEEN UPPER
SYSTEMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
MODELS SHOW A LEE-SIDE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH HEATING TODAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THE LEAD MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAKER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN THE FLAT FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS
INDICATE MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW DURING MUCH OF TODAY BEHIND THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED. THE GFS AND NAM MOS POPS HAVE TRENDED LOWER. THE HRRR
SUGGESTED SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TODAY. THE NAM DISPLAYED SURFACE-BASED LI/S
NEAR -8. THIS INSTABILITY PLUS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AIDING DOWNDRAFTS
SUGGESTED DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO FAVORED HAIL. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE.

THE MODELS DISPLAYED A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING TONIGHT WITH THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEARING THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MODELS INDICATED A LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH A FLAT FLOW AND
LITTLE MOISTURE. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE LOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAYED A SURFACE TROUGH OR FRONT LINGERING IN THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INDICATED H85 NORTHWEST
FLOW AND H5 RIDGING. THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT HAVING LITTLE
MOISTURE. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW. IT WILL BE
HOT FRIDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTED
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S. ALSO FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS FOR THE
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW. THE MODELS DISPLAY GREATER MOISTURE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
DRYING AND RIDGING IS DEPICTED FOR TUESDAY. MOISTURE MAY RETURN
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE MOS DISPLAYS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z.

HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. LATEST REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWING SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE INDICATED MVFR CIGS WITH VCSH
ACROSS THE CSRA AFTER 09Z. HRRR SHOWING SHOWERS SLOWLY FALLING
APART OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATER TODAY...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280754
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
354 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN IMPRESSIVE STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS DRAWING MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO, ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA, THEN
GRADUALLY ARCS BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE SPINNING OVER
NORTHWEST IOWA. THIS MOISTURE CHANNEL WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
WITH A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT POISED TO CROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATER IN THE DAY. THE APPROACHING
BAND OF CIRROSTRATUS AND ALTOSTRATUS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING
AS THE MOISTURE CHANNEL MOVES EAST AND THE UPPER LOW PROPAGATES
FARTHER TO THE NORTH, SO EXPECT QUITE A NUMBER OF BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER TO OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE. WARMER 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
COUPLED WITH MODEST LEVELS OF INSOLATION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN POISED TO
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 FOR MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
COAST. THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER ROBUST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL
KEEP THE BEACHES HIGHS LIMITED TO THE LOWER-MID 70S.

THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST IS LESS THAN CLEAR AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE AT BEST. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY (SBCAPE 1700-2100
J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES -4 TO -6C) AS DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE MID
60S AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 80S. HOWEVER, LOW-
LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH MODIFIED
RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING MEAGER 0-3KM CAPE VALUES OF 50-80 J/KG.
THIS SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME BEING
SUSTAINED WITHOUT THE AID OF SOME SORT OF SYNOPTIC OR MESOSCALE
FORCING MECHANISM HELPING TO AUGMENT PARCEL LIFT TO THE AREA WHERE
A GREATER AMOUNT OF CAPE WILL BE MORE READILY AVAILABLE.
SYNOPTICALLY, MODEL VERTICAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL VELOCITIES TODAY WITH THE AREA STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT, YET WEAKENING, RIDGE OF ALOFT.
HOWEVER, AT LEAST ONE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION
YESTERDAY EVENING WAS OBSERVED OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA SEVERAL HOURS AGO BEFORE IT WAS MASKED BY THE WEAK LOW-
LEVEL WIND FIELD. SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE CAMS SUGGEST CONVECTION
COULD FOCUS ALONG THIS MESOSCALE BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOULD CONVECTION FIRE HERE AND PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS, THEN A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS VIA MESOSCALE BOUNDARY PROCESSES.
THIS IS OBVIOUSLY A HIGHLY CONDITIONAL FORECAST AS MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN INITIATES. WILL MAINTAIN A
FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE POP FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH GRIDDED POPS ONLY
MAXING OUT IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THERE IS A NON-ZERO RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY ISOLATED GIVEN WEAK SHEAR PROFILES
AND MEAGER 0-3KM CAPE. EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING DRY SLOT WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
WITH MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOWING DCAPE RISING TO 1200-1400 J/KG.
HOWEVER, THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO
WHETHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS CAN PUSH PARCELS TO THE
AREA WHERE HIGHER CAPE WILL BE MORE READILY AVAILABLE FOR
MORE INTENSE PRECIPITATION LOADING. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL
BE MORE OF A SECONDARY HAZARD TODAY WITH CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C
LAYER ONLY AVERAGING 500-650 J/KG. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
COAST THIS EVENING AND OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE SOME
CLEARING OCCUR AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THINS WITH TIME. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 AT THE
COAST.

FRIDAY...WHAT IS LEFT OF A WEAK FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY
WITH DRYER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WARM TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
WEST/NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPING WIND ALONG WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE
AREA WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD FALL 1-2
DEGREES SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS IN CHARLESTON SC AND SAVANNAH GA...BUT
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED SHOULD TRENDS INDICATE SLIGHTLY
WARMER CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...IN THE MID/UPPER
60S.

SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT TRENDS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS WELL
INLAND SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
WARM...PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS AND POSSIBLY AROUND
90 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD...IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT...PWATS WILL APPROACH 1.5
INCHES FOR MOST AREAS WHILE TEMPS PEAK IN THE MID 80S. H5 SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO THE NORTH
WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FILTER INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AND TRACKS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MID WEEK UNTIL SFC LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
THEN EXPECTED HEADING INTO LATE WEEK WHILE A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING/COVERAGE IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN SO NO
MENTION OF TSRA WILL BE INCLUDED AT EITHER TERMINAL FOR THE 06Z
TAF CYCLE. THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED WITH THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
PUSH INTO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY AS THE REGION REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS LOOK TO MAX OUT AT
10-15 KT TODAY...EXCEPT CLOSER TO 15 KT IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
AND ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS A ROBUST SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO PINCH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FOR ALL BUT THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG AS WELL AS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COASTAL WATERS. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THE GUST FREQUENCY TO 25 KT
WILL BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, BUT THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE
REEVALUATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW 10
KT TO BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT BECOME ONSHORE IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD UP TO 2-
4 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LEVELS...PEAKING AROUND 15 KT DURING FROPA. SEAS
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280754
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
354 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN IMPRESSIVE STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS DRAWING MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO, ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA, THEN
GRADUALLY ARCS BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE SPINNING OVER
NORTHWEST IOWA. THIS MOISTURE CHANNEL WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
WITH A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT POISED TO CROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATER IN THE DAY. THE APPROACHING
BAND OF CIRROSTRATUS AND ALTOSTRATUS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING
AS THE MOISTURE CHANNEL MOVES EAST AND THE UPPER LOW PROPAGATES
FARTHER TO THE NORTH, SO EXPECT QUITE A NUMBER OF BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER TO OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE. WARMER 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
COUPLED WITH MODEST LEVELS OF INSOLATION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN POISED TO
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 FOR MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
COAST. THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER ROBUST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL
KEEP THE BEACHES HIGHS LIMITED TO THE LOWER-MID 70S.

THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST IS LESS THAN CLEAR AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE AT BEST. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY (SBCAPE 1700-2100
J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES -4 TO -6C) AS DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE MID
60S AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 80S. HOWEVER, LOW-
LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH MODIFIED
RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING MEAGER 0-3KM CAPE VALUES OF 50-80 J/KG.
THIS SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME BEING
SUSTAINED WITHOUT THE AID OF SOME SORT OF SYNOPTIC OR MESOSCALE
FORCING MECHANISM HELPING TO AUGMENT PARCEL LIFT TO THE AREA WHERE
A GREATER AMOUNT OF CAPE WILL BE MORE READILY AVAILABLE.
SYNOPTICALLY, MODEL VERTICAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL VELOCITIES TODAY WITH THE AREA STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT, YET WEAKENING, RIDGE OF ALOFT.
HOWEVER, AT LEAST ONE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION
YESTERDAY EVENING WAS OBSERVED OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA SEVERAL HOURS AGO BEFORE IT WAS MASKED BY THE WEAK LOW-
LEVEL WIND FIELD. SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE CAMS SUGGEST CONVECTION
COULD FOCUS ALONG THIS MESOSCALE BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOULD CONVECTION FIRE HERE AND PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS, THEN A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS VIA MESOSCALE BOUNDARY PROCESSES.
THIS IS OBVIOUSLY A HIGHLY CONDITIONAL FORECAST AS MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN INITIATES. WILL MAINTAIN A
FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE POP FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH GRIDDED POPS ONLY
MAXING OUT IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THERE IS A NON-ZERO RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY ISOLATED GIVEN WEAK SHEAR PROFILES
AND MEAGER 0-3KM CAPE. EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING DRY SLOT WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
WITH MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOWING DCAPE RISING TO 1200-1400 J/KG.
HOWEVER, THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO
WHETHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS CAN PUSH PARCELS TO THE
AREA WHERE HIGHER CAPE WILL BE MORE READILY AVAILABLE FOR
MORE INTENSE PRECIPITATION LOADING. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL
BE MORE OF A SECONDARY HAZARD TODAY WITH CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C
LAYER ONLY AVERAGING 500-650 J/KG. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
COAST THIS EVENING AND OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE SOME
CLEARING OCCUR AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THINS WITH TIME. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 AT THE
COAST.

FRIDAY...WHAT IS LEFT OF A WEAK FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY
WITH DRYER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WARM TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
WEST/NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPING WIND ALONG WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE
AREA WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD FALL 1-2
DEGREES SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS IN CHARLESTON SC AND SAVANNAH GA...BUT
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED SHOULD TRENDS INDICATE SLIGHTLY
WARMER CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...IN THE MID/UPPER
60S.

SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT TRENDS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS WELL
INLAND SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
WARM...PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS AND POSSIBLY AROUND
90 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD...IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT...PWATS WILL APPROACH 1.5
INCHES FOR MOST AREAS WHILE TEMPS PEAK IN THE MID 80S. H5 SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO THE NORTH
WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FILTER INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AND TRACKS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MID WEEK UNTIL SFC LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
THEN EXPECTED HEADING INTO LATE WEEK WHILE A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING/COVERAGE IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN SO NO
MENTION OF TSRA WILL BE INCLUDED AT EITHER TERMINAL FOR THE 06Z
TAF CYCLE. THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED WITH THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
PUSH INTO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY AS THE REGION REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS LOOK TO MAX OUT AT
10-15 KT TODAY...EXCEPT CLOSER TO 15 KT IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
AND ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS A ROBUST SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO PINCH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FOR ALL BUT THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG AS WELL AS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COASTAL WATERS. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THE GUST FREQUENCY TO 25 KT
WILL BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, BUT THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE
REEVALUATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW 10
KT TO BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT BECOME ONSHORE IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD UP TO 2-
4 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LEVELS...PEAKING AROUND 15 KT DURING FROPA. SEAS
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/DPB




000
FXUS62 KFFC 280744
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
344 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE COLD FRONT TO THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TODAYS FORECAST IS
LOW...AS MODELS...SYNOPTIC AND HI-RES DON`T HAVE A REALLY GOOD
HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

WV LOOP SHOWS DRY AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS
MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...EVEN NORTH OF 20 DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S SO THE
AIRMASS IS STILL QUITE MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS GA THIS MORNING...BUT
RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE ARE
SOME VERY MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW...BUT NOTHING VERY STRONG.
MODELS ARE NOT PROGGING A STRONG PIECE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY TO
TRAVERSE THE FLOW EITHER.

LOW PRESSURE WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THIS WILL STRETCH THE COLD
FRONT/STALLED BOUNDARY OUT ALMOST EAST TO WEST. THE LOW PRESSURE
WAVE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT NEARS THE CAROLINA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

HI RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH CONVECTIVE PATTERNS THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SEE VERY LITTLE REASON TODAY WILL BE ANY
DIFFERENT. THE LOCAL WRF...ARW AND HRRR ALL HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY. THE HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWFA...WHILE THE LOCAL WRF/ARW DEVELOPS THE
CONVECTION A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH CWFA.
HOWEVER...THE ARW AND WRF CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN COVERAGE.
(THE ARW PERFORMED A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE-WISE FOR WEDNESDAY.) THE
ONE UNIVERSAL MESSAGE WITHIN THE HI-RES MODELS IS THAT THE BULK OF
ANY PRECIP TODAY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...SO HAVE
GONE WITH THIS TREND. SINCE THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DIFFERS
BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS...AM KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY BUT
THE HIGHEST NUMBERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE
CWFA.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FCST PERIOD STARTS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE NORTHERN GULF
AND RETURN OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE FOCUSED NEAR A LINGERING WEDGE FRONT
OR OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN THE NORTH AND THERE IS SOME DECENT
PROGGED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS MIGHT BE
WARRANTED IN FUTURE UPDATES. STILL LOOKING TO HAVE GREATEST PRECIP
CHANCE/COVERAGE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD AS THE
UPPER FORCING/JET DYNAMICS PUSH A BIT CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. NOT QUITE AS MUCH AMPLITUDE TO THIS SYSTEM AS SEEN IN
PREVIOUS SUITES OF GUIDANCE AND THE SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS BEFORE...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH HOW
UNSTABLE THE ENVIRONMENT CAN GET WHILE DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE POSSIBLE. THE COMMON FLIES IN THE OINTMENT THAT COULD
BUST PRECIP FCST WOULD BE IF ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION DISRUPTS
MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE NORTHERN GULF OR WEAK PERTURBATIONS AND
REMNANT CLOUD COVERAGE MUDDLES THE SENSITIVE ATMOSPHERE.

FORECAST ACTUALLY GETS TRICKIER MONDAY AND BEYOND GIVEN LARGE
DISCREPANCY AND INCONSISTENCY AMONG LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW
END CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS ACCORDINGLY...THOUGH IF ANY PERIOD LOOKS
TO HAVE SOME TYPE OF CONSENSUS FOR SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL IT WOULD
BE LATE TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...THOUGH STILL BIG DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND SHORTWAVE
POTENTIAL.

TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD TREND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN NEAR NORMS BEYOND...THOUGH EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS
MADE PER AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AL THIS MORNING. DO
THINK ONCE THE HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR OUT PATCHY IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL GA...AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT ATL. HI RES MODELS HAVE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIP TO THE SOUTH TODAY...BUT ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE...BUT A SHIFT TO THE NW WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW BEHIND A FRONT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  61  89  61 /  40  20   5   5
ATLANTA         81  62  86  65 /  40  20   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     79  55  82  57 /  40  10   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    81  58  85  61 /  40  10   5  10
COLUMBUS        83  64  88  66 /  50  20  10  10
GAINESVILLE     81  61  85  62 /  40  10   5  10
MACON           84  63  88  63 /  50  30   5  10
ROME            83  57  86  59 /  30  10   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  81  58  86  60 /  50  20  10  10
VIDALIA         87  67  89  66 /  50  40  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA




000
FXUS62 KCAE 280707
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
307 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL HELP BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE TODAY AND ON SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIER BETWEEN UPPER
SYSTEMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
MODELS SHOW A LEE-SIDE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH HEATING TODAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THE LEAD MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAKER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN THE FLAT FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS
INDICATE MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW DURING MUCH OF TODAY BEHIND THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED. THE GFS AND NAM MOS POPS HAVE TRENDED LOWER. THE HRRR
SUGGESTED SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TODAY. THE NAM DISPLAYED SURFACE-BASED LI/S
NEAR -8. THIS INSTABILITY PLUS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AIDING DOWNDRAFTS
SUGGESTED DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO FAVORED HAIL. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE.

THE MODELS DISPLAYED A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING TONIGHT WITH THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEARING THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MODELS INDICATED A LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH A FLAT FLOW AND
LITTLE MOISTURE. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE LOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAYED A SURFACE TROUGH OR FRONT LINGERING IN THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INDICATED H85 NORTHWEST
FLOW AND H5 RIDGING. THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT HAVING LITTLE
MOISTURE. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW. IT WILL BE
HOT FRIDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTED
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S. ALSO FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS FOR THE
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW. THE MODELS DISPLAY GREATER MOISTURE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
DRYING AND RIDGING IS DEPICTED FOR TUESDAY. MOISTURE MAY RETURN
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE MOS DISPLAYS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z.

HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING AFTER 08Z. SOME MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ACROSS
AGS/DNL TOWARDS SUNRISE. HAVE INDICATED MVFR CIGS WITH VCSH ACROSS
THE CSRA AFTER 09Z. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MOVING EAST INTO THE
MIDLANDS AFTER SUNRISE...THOUGH MODELS HINT AT THE ACTIVITY
FALLING APART.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS
HEATS UP AND BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 280707
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
307 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL HELP BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE TODAY AND ON SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIER BETWEEN UPPER
SYSTEMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
MODELS SHOW A LEE-SIDE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH HEATING TODAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THE LEAD MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAKER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN THE FLAT FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS
INDICATE MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW DURING MUCH OF TODAY BEHIND THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED. THE GFS AND NAM MOS POPS HAVE TRENDED LOWER. THE HRRR
SUGGESTED SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY TODAY. THE NAM DISPLAYED SURFACE-BASED LI/S
NEAR -8. THIS INSTABILITY PLUS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AIDING DOWNDRAFTS
SUGGESTED DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO FAVORED HAIL. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE.

THE MODELS DISPLAYED A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING TONIGHT WITH THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEARING THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MODELS INDICATED A LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH A FLAT FLOW AND
LITTLE MOISTURE. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE LOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAYED A SURFACE TROUGH OR FRONT LINGERING IN THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INDICATED H85 NORTHWEST
FLOW AND H5 RIDGING. THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT HAVING LITTLE
MOISTURE. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW. IT WILL BE
HOT FRIDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTED
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S. ALSO FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS FOR THE
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW. THE MODELS DISPLAY GREATER MOISTURE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
DRYING AND RIDGING IS DEPICTED FOR TUESDAY. MOISTURE MAY RETURN
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE MOS DISPLAYS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z.

HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING AFTER 08Z. SOME MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ACROSS
AGS/DNL TOWARDS SUNRISE. HAVE INDICATED MVFR CIGS WITH VCSH ACROSS
THE CSRA AFTER 09Z. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MOVING EAST INTO THE
MIDLANDS AFTER SUNRISE...THOUGH MODELS HINT AT THE ACTIVITY
FALLING APART.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS
HEATS UP AND BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KFFC 280517
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
117 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
ALOFT CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH PRIMARILY CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS
EVENING. OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED AS
INSTABILITY HAS WANED...BUT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN CENTRAL GEORGIA AS DAYTIME
HEATING COMMENCES. FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAY TO LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. POPS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA.

RW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 858 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

NOT A REAL CLEAR CUT FORECAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HI RES MODELS
CANNOT SEEM TO AGREE ON A SOLUTION AND ARE QUITE DIVERGENT IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS. THERE IS ONE COMMON THEME AND THAT IS MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EXITING THURSDAY. WITH EACH RUN OF
THE HI-RES MODELS THEY ARE FOCUSING ON A COUPLE WAVES OF CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. WITH TSRA OVER SERN AL AND FL
PANHANDLE MOVING NORTH...THIS SHOULD SPREAD INTO WEST CENTRAL GA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTH GA TONIGHT AS WILL THE
CONVECTION OVER MISSISSIPPI. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER
THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REST OF
NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL GA. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL
GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST RISK OF THUNDER WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WELL AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA. HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT TSRA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO NORTH GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

17

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO NOTICEABLY BETTER AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL INDICATING THE GENERAL
TREND WILL BE FOR AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND CULMINATING LATE SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT
MONDAY/TUESDAY. ALL OF THIS WAS REPRESENTED QUITE WELL IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS AND I HAVE ELECTED TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

20

PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY/...

GUIDANCE IN BETTER OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH MAIN INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC
FEATURES OF THE MAJORITY OF FCST PERIOD. WE START OUT WITH
DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE THURSDAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM OF THE SHORT TERM. QUICK TRANSITION TO
UPPER RIDGING AND DRY/WARM CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY. LOOKING
TO HAVE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH MANY AREAS REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS /A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS/.

WHILE UPPER TROUGH DIGS/AMPLIFIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...STRONG
GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL KICK IN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF A WAVE OF ENERGY SET TO BREAK AWAY FROM THE CORE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT EJECTS NEWD INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY NORTH GA SATURDAY...THEN
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND RAISED TO LIKELY FOR
THE NORTH. SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO
LINE UP BEST FOR SUNDAY IF ANY PERIOD WAS TO BE FAVORED FOR MORE OF
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. MORE QUESTION EXISTS TO CLOUD
COVERAGE AND DESTABILIZATION POSSIBILITY THIS FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST SO WILL NEED TO KEEP MONITOR ON THREATS.

OTHERWISE A FEW WEAKER DISTURBANCES COULD INFLUENCE THE AREA MONDAY
AND LATE TUESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS IN FCST
BUT UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS MODEL SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE.

BAKER



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AL THIS MORNING. DO
THINK ONCE THE HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR OUT PATCHY IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL GA...AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT ATL. HI RES MODELS HAVE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIP TO THE SOUTH TODAY...BUT ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE...BUT A SHIFT TO THE NW WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW BEHIND A FRONT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  61  87  61 /  40  20   5   5
ATLANTA         81  63  84  63 /  40  20   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     81  54  80  56 /  40  10   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    83  60  85  60 /  40  10   5  10
COLUMBUS        81  65  87  63 /  50  20  10   5
GAINESVILLE     82  61  84  61 /  40  10   5  10
MACON           82  63  88  63 /  50  30   5   5
ROME            83  58  85  59 /  30  10   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  82  60  85  60 /  50  20  10   5
VIDALIA         84  66  88  65 /  50  40  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS62 KFFC 280517
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
117 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
ALOFT CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH PRIMARILY CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS
EVENING. OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED AS
INSTABILITY HAS WANED...BUT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN CENTRAL GEORGIA AS DAYTIME
HEATING COMMENCES. FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAY TO LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. POPS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA.

RW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 858 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

NOT A REAL CLEAR CUT FORECAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HI RES MODELS
CANNOT SEEM TO AGREE ON A SOLUTION AND ARE QUITE DIVERGENT IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS. THERE IS ONE COMMON THEME AND THAT IS MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EXITING THURSDAY. WITH EACH RUN OF
THE HI-RES MODELS THEY ARE FOCUSING ON A COUPLE WAVES OF CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. WITH TSRA OVER SERN AL AND FL
PANHANDLE MOVING NORTH...THIS SHOULD SPREAD INTO WEST CENTRAL GA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTH GA TONIGHT AS WILL THE
CONVECTION OVER MISSISSIPPI. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER
THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REST OF
NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL GA. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL
GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST RISK OF THUNDER WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WELL AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA. HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT TSRA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO NORTH GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

17

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO NOTICEABLY BETTER AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL INDICATING THE GENERAL
TREND WILL BE FOR AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND CULMINATING LATE SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT
MONDAY/TUESDAY. ALL OF THIS WAS REPRESENTED QUITE WELL IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS AND I HAVE ELECTED TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

20

PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY/...

GUIDANCE IN BETTER OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH MAIN INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC
FEATURES OF THE MAJORITY OF FCST PERIOD. WE START OUT WITH
DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE THURSDAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM OF THE SHORT TERM. QUICK TRANSITION TO
UPPER RIDGING AND DRY/WARM CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY. LOOKING
TO HAVE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH MANY AREAS REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS /A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS/.

WHILE UPPER TROUGH DIGS/AMPLIFIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...STRONG
GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL KICK IN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF A WAVE OF ENERGY SET TO BREAK AWAY FROM THE CORE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT EJECTS NEWD INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY NORTH GA SATURDAY...THEN
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND RAISED TO LIKELY FOR
THE NORTH. SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO
LINE UP BEST FOR SUNDAY IF ANY PERIOD WAS TO BE FAVORED FOR MORE OF
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. MORE QUESTION EXISTS TO CLOUD
COVERAGE AND DESTABILIZATION POSSIBILITY THIS FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST SO WILL NEED TO KEEP MONITOR ON THREATS.

OTHERWISE A FEW WEAKER DISTURBANCES COULD INFLUENCE THE AREA MONDAY
AND LATE TUESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS IN FCST
BUT UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS MODEL SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE.

BAKER



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AL THIS MORNING. DO
THINK ONCE THE HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR OUT PATCHY IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL GA...AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT ATL. HI RES MODELS HAVE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIP TO THE SOUTH TODAY...BUT ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE...BUT A SHIFT TO THE NW WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW BEHIND A FRONT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  61  87  61 /  40  20   5   5
ATLANTA         81  63  84  63 /  40  20   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     81  54  80  56 /  40  10   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    83  60  85  60 /  40  10   5  10
COLUMBUS        81  65  87  63 /  50  20  10   5
GAINESVILLE     82  61  84  61 /  40  10   5  10
MACON           82  63  88  63 /  50  30   5   5
ROME            83  58  85  59 /  30  10   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  82  60  85  60 /  50  20  10   5
VIDALIA         84  66  88  65 /  50  40  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280506
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
106 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THEN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES LATER SUNDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND WILL PREVAIL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE CYCLE.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR INTERIOR...
ROUGHLY FROM MILLEN TO ALLENDALE. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATING
SIMILAR INSTABILITY/CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO EVEN 3000 J/KG...BUT
UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. IN FACT...THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE BEST UPPER FORCING IN THE FORM OF A N-S ORIENTED
VORT LOBE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...WITH WEAK
UPPER FORCING AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS MAKES
IT VERY DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. THE
FORCING WOULD INDICATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER
INSTABILITY/HEATING WOULD GO MORE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...HAVE SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE AND RAISED POPS FOR THE MORNING...THE KEPT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN REASONABLY HIGH CAPES AND
DOWNDRAFTS CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WINDS
AND POSSIBLY HAIL. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. POPS
EXPECTED TO TAPPER OFF AFTER 00Z FRIDAY AS THE MAIN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE. HAVE LOW END CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FIRST
PART OF NIGHT...THEN DECREASE BELOW 15% BY SUNRISE. LOWS IN THE MID
60S.

FRIDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND LOWER MEAN RH VALUES WORK IN FROM
THE WEST WITH NO PRECIP MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BELOW
90. A PREVIOUS RUN OF THE MEX HAD LOWER 90S...BUT RECENT RUNS A BIT
LOWER. HAVE GONE WITH 90 MOST AREAS EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COAST. SURFACE
DEW POINTS WILL BE AROUND 60...SO THE HUMIDITY WILL BE
NOTICEABLE...BUT NOT TOO UNCOMFORTABLE. DEEP LAYER RIDGING HOLDS ON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MILD...IN THE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGING BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE NEXT
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.. LOOKS LIKE ANY
FORCING AND AND BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF
THE REGION FOR THE DAY. THUS...HAVE KEPT OUT POPS MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE EXTREME WEST...MAINLY FOR LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S
NORTH...MID TO UPPER 80S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE
RETREATS SOUTH AND EAST IN RESPONSE TO A H5 SHORTWAVE THAT QUICKLY
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD
OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING/COVERAGE IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN SO NO
MENTION OF TSRA WILL BE INCLUDED AT EITHER TERMINAL FOR THE 06Z
TAF CYCLE. THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED WITH THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THURSDAY NIGHT. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND FIRST PART OF MONDAY...CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION RETURNS WITH BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN S/SW WINDS 10-15
KT WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-3
FT...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4 FT BEYOND 20 NM. FORECAST WINDS/SEAS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4
FEET OR LESS AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
WITH A WEAK FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KFFC 280243
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1043 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
ALOFT CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH PRIMARILY CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS
EVENING. OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED AS
INSTABILITY HAS WANED...BUT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN CENTRAL GEORGIA AS DAYTIME
HEATING COMMENCES. FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAY TO LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. POPS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA.

RW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 858 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

NOT A REAL CLEAR CUT FORECAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HI RES MODELS
CANNOT SEEM TO AGREE ON A SOLUTION AND ARE QUITE DIVERGENT IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS. THERE IS ONE COMMON THEME AND THAT IS MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EXITING THURSDAY. WITH EACH RUN OF
THE HI-RES MODELS THEY ARE FOCUSING ON A COUPLE WAVES OF CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. WITH TSRA OVER SERN AL AND FL
PANHANDLE MOVING NORTH...THIS SHOULD SPREAD INTO WEST CENTRAL GA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTH GA TONIGHT AS WILL THE
CONVECTION OVER MISSISSIPPI. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER
THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REST OF
NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL GA. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL
GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST RISK OF THUNDER WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WELL AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA. HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT TSRA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO NORTH GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

17

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO NOTICEABLY BETTER AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL INDICATING THE GENERAL
TREND WILL BE FOR AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND CULMINATING LATE SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT
MONDAY/TUESDAY. ALL OF THIS WAS REPRESENTED QUITE WELL IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS AND I HAVE ELECTED TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

20

PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY/...

GUIDANCE IN BETTER OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH MAIN INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC
FEATURES OF THE MAJORITY OF FCST PERIOD. WE START OUT WITH
DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE THURSDAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM OF THE SHORT TERM. QUICK TRANSITION TO
UPPER RIDGING AND DRY/WARM CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY. LOOKING
TO HAVE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH MANY AREAS REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS /A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS/.

WHILE UPPER TROUGH DIGS/AMPLIFIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...STRONG
GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL KICK IN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF A WAVE OF ENERGY SET TO BREAK AWAY FROM THE CORE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT EJECTS NEWD INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY NORTH GA SATURDAY...THEN
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND RAISED TO LIKELY FOR
THE NORTH. SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO
LINE UP BEST FOR SUNDAY IF ANY PERIOD WAS TO BE FAVORED FOR MORE OF
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. MORE QUESTION EXISTS TO CLOUD
COVERAGE AND DESTABILIZATION POSSIBILITY THIS FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST SO WILL NEED TO KEEP MONITOR ON THREATS.

OTHERWISE A FEW WEAKER DISTURBANCES COULD INFLUENCE THE AREA MONDAY
AND LATE TUESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS IN FCST
BUT UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS MODEL SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO WESTERN GEORGIA THIS
EVENING. WHILE A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED...A TEMPO
GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED TO ADDRESS THE HIGHEST TSRA POTENTIAL
THROUGH 05Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING BY TOMORROW EVENING. IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

//ATL
CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ALL ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  83  61  87 /  40  60  20   5
ATLANTA         66  81  63  84 /  60  50  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     61  81  54  80 /  40  50  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    65  83  60  85 /  50  50  10   5
COLUMBUS        66  81  65  87 /  70  60  30  10
GAINESVILLE     65  82  61  84 /  40  50  20   5
MACON           66  82  63  88 /  50  60  40  10
ROME            64  83  58  85 /  40  40  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  65  82  60  85 /  60  50  20  10
VIDALIA         67  84  66  88 /  30  60  60  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KCAE 280235
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1035 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT TIMES
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
COLUMBIA AREA. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING CHANCES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. HAVE REMAINED WITH HIGHEST POPS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE
CSRA WITH LITTLE CHANCE ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SURFACE LOW
MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES NEAR ZONAL THURSDAY ALTHOUGH DIFFLUENT
PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. THE MODELS DISPLAY A
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THURSDAY. ONE SHORT
WAVE APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING. ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA MOUNTAINS IN
THE AFTERNOON MAY BE A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION. THINK WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING MOVING EAST FROM NORTH
GEORGIA...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH PEAK HEATING. THINK BEST CHANCE POSSIBLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS
OR COASTAL PLAINS WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
HIGHEST/CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE FRONT/STRONGEST
INSTABILITY. BUT OVERALL OMEGA FIELDS NOT STRONG. WEST MIDLANDS
MAY SEE SOME DRIER AIR IN THE AFTERNOON LIMITING CONVECTION. MOS
GUIDANCE POPS CONSENSUS MAINTAINS CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY SO WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ALTHOUGH
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA IN
THE CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND UPSTATE.

FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 06Z...CUT POPS BACK FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE 06Z- 12Z PERIOD AS DRIER AIR SPREADS
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND AIR MASS
APPEARS DRY. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR 90 DEGREES. GUIDANCE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
FORECAST CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW UPPER
RIDGING CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW.
THE MODELS DISPLAY GREATER MOISTURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. DRYING AND RIDGING ON
TUESDAY. MOISTURE MAY RETURN INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ADVECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAD THE HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE MOS DISPLAYED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z.

HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING AFTER 08Z. SOME MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ACROSS
AGS/DNL TOWARDS SUNRISE. HAVE INDICATED MVFR CIGS WITH VCSH ACROSS
THE CSRA AFTER 09Z. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MOVING EAST INTO THE
MIDLANDS AFTER SUNRISE...THOUGH MODELS HINT AT THE ACTIVITY
FALLING APART.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS
HEATS UP AND BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280157
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
957 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THEN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES LATER SUNDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND WILL PREVAIL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE CONFINED TO AREAS
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. AS OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHES INTO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF I-95 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
ADDITIONAL/ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THIS
AREA. THUS...EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A FEW HOURS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COUNTIES SOUTH/WEST OF
SAVANNAH. THEN...DUE TO CONTINUED STABILIZATION AND THE ASSOCIATED
DISSIPATION OF CONVECTION...MAINTAINED A FEW HOURS OF RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THEN...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RETURN
INLAND LATE TONIGHT AS ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND/OR
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MILD NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATING
SIMILAR INSTABILITY/CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO EVEN 3000 J/KG...BUT
UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. IN FACT...THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE BEST UPPER FORCING IN THE FORM OF A N-S ORIENTED
VORT LOBE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...WITH WEAK
UPPER FORCING AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS MAKES
IT VERY DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION. THE
FORCING WOULD INDICATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER
INSTABILITY/HEATING WOULD GO MORE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...HAVE SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE AND RAISED POPS FOR THE MORNING...THE KEPT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN REASONABLY HIGH CAPES AND
DOWNDRAFTS CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WINDS
AND POSSIBLY HAIL. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. POPS
EXPECTED TO TAPPER OFF AFTER 00Z FRIDAY AS THE MAIN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE. HAVE LOW END CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FIRST
PART OF NIGHT...THEN DECREASE BELOW 15% BY SUNRISE. LOWS IN THE MID
60S.

FRIDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND LOWER MEAN RH VALUES WORK IN FROM
THE WEST WITH NO PRECIP MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BELOW
90. A PREVIOUS RUN OF THE MEX HAD LOWER 90S...BUT RECENT RUNS A BIT
LOWER. HAVE GONE WITH 90 MOST AREAS EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COAST. SURFACE
DEW POINTS WILL BE AROUND 60...SO THE HUMIDITY WILL BE
NOTICEABLE...BUT NOT TOO UNCOMFORTABLE. DEEP LAYER RIDGING HOLDS ON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MILD...IN THE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGING BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE NEXT
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.. LOOKS LIKE ANY
FORCING AND AND BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF
THE REGION FOR THE DAY. THUS...HAVE KEPT OUT POPS MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE EXTREME WEST...MAINLY FOR LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S
NORTH...MID TO UPPER 80S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE
RETREATS SOUTH AND EAST IN RESPONSE TO A H5 SHORTWAVE THAT QUICKLY
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD
OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z TAFS INDICATE VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ALSO...THERE EXISTS A
LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PUSH INTO THE VICINITY
OF THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT...AND BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT TERMINALS THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
TIMING/COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION REMAINS TOO UNCERTAIN TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION OF VCTS/CBS WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THURSDAY NIGHT. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND FIRST PART OF MONDAY...CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION RETURNS WITH BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN S/SW WINDS 10-15
KT WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-3
FT...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 4 FT BEYOND 20 NM. FORECAST WINDS/SEAS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4
FEET OR LESS AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
WITH A WEAK FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...ECT/RFM/SPR




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities