Home > Products > State Listing > Georgia Data
Latest:
 AFDFFC |  AFDCHS |  AFDCAE |
  [top]

000
FXUS62 KFFC 130024
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
724 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NO MAJOR FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HARD TO BELIEVE
WE HAD SNOW EVENT THIS MORNING IN FAR NE GA WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES DURING THIS PERIOD...
QUITE A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER...ESP SATURDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR POSSIBLE FIRE DANGER ISSUES. OTHERWISE USED BIAS-
CORRECTED BLEND FOR TEMPS AND WIND.

SNELSON

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST IN THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM. HAVING
SAID THAT...WITH THE NAM NOW EXTENDING INTO MONDAY...IT IS BRINGING
THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF ATL/AHN KEEPING NORTH GA IN THE COLD AIR
WEDGE. 950/925 TEMPS ACROSS NORTHEAST GA STAY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON MONDAY THEN WARMING ABOVE FREEZING. THE H8
ZERO DEGREE LINE IS ACROSS NORTH GA MONDAY MORNING THEN QUICKLY
RISING WELL NORTH OF THE CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT IS LENDING TO
A HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THIS SCENARIO HAPPENING IS THE 12Z GFS IS NOW
MUCH COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS BRINGING THE SURFACE LOW IN A
SIMILAR FASHION TO THE NAM. THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS ALSO A
LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THIS SHOULD AID IN KEEPING THE
WEDGE OVER MUCH OF NORTH GA. SCATTERED/ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD MOVE INTO EXTREME NORTH GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. BASED ON PARTIAL THICKNESS OF THE
GFS/NAM...THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND
A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH GA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO ALL
RAIN BY NOON FROM NORTHWEST GA TO ATL TO AHN...WITH NORTHEAST GA
TRANSITIONING FROM SNOW TO A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX. AS THE SURFACE
LOW PULLS OFF TO OUR EAST...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY CHANGING THE PRECIP TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST
OF NORTH GA. THERE REMAINS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA.

IN ADDITIONAL TO WINTER WEATHER...HPC QPF GUIDANCE IS BRINGING OVER
1 INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP TO NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GA. THIS COULD
BE ENOUGH TO PUSH A FEW CREEKS AND RIVERS TO BANKFULL OR NEAR
FLOOD. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...AN H5 RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING AND THIS WILL
BRING A RAPID WARM UP TO THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

17

FIRE WEATHER...

SMALL CHANCE FOR FIRE DANGER CRITERIA SATURDAY AS RH DROPS TO 20-25
PCT OVER ALL BUT FAR NORTH GA AND FUELS MAY REACH 8PCT OR LOWER. NW
WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH SPEEDS OF 12-18MPH AND GUSTS TO
25MPH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NO PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO
VSBYS. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL STAY IN THE 1-14KT RANGER GUSTING TO 22-23KT THROUGH
SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN SLOW DOWN AFTER 18Z SAT FINALLY
GETTING DOWN TO 10KT OR LESS BY 00Z SUN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          29  43  22  40 /   0   0   0  10
ATLANTA         28  39  24  42 /   0   0   0  10
BLAIRSVILLE     21  31  17  36 /   5   0   0  20
CARTERSVILLE    26  37  21  42 /   0   0   0  10
COLUMBUS        34  48  26  49 /   0   0   0  10
GAINESVILLE     27  37  22  38 /   0   0   0  10
MACON           34  48  25  46 /   0   0   0  10
ROME            26  37  20  43 /   0   0   0  10
PEACHTREE CITY  29  41  23  44 /   0   0   0  10
VIDALIA         38  52  29  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...01



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCAE 122341
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING REINFORCING COLD AIR
TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING TO OUR
E/NE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL STAY UP
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A 30 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET. LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE AS COLD
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
ALONG WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FINALLY EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP COLD AND DRY AIR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 40 IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO AROUND 50
IN THE CSRA WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW SURROUNDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL SURROUND THE SUNRISE AND
MORNING HOURS MONDAY WHEN A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA. ALL PARAMETERS CONSIDERED THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY FOR
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP IS
INCREASING. CURRENTLY THE WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE BETWEEN SUNRISE
AND LATE MORNING MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BY LATE MORNING
AND TURNING ALL PRECIP TO RAIN. SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES INCREASES
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG 850MB JET OVER THE
AREA AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY. THIS WILL KEEP ALL
PRECIP FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD AS RAIN. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK INTO THE REGION. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S
FOR THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING MID 50S FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL WITH ALL OVERNIGHT PERIODS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE PATTERN INDICATE POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION EARLY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG H85 SOUTHERLY JET MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. IT WILL LIKELY BE
DRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 50 TO 90 PERCENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS EVENING
THEN CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT DUE
TO A LOW LEVEL JET.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 122341
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING REINFORCING COLD AIR
TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING TO OUR
E/NE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL STAY UP
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A 30 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET. LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE AS COLD
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
ALONG WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FINALLY EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP COLD AND DRY AIR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 40 IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO AROUND 50
IN THE CSRA WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW SURROUNDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL SURROUND THE SUNRISE AND
MORNING HOURS MONDAY WHEN A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA. ALL PARAMETERS CONSIDERED THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY FOR
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP IS
INCREASING. CURRENTLY THE WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE BETWEEN SUNRISE
AND LATE MORNING MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BY LATE MORNING
AND TURNING ALL PRECIP TO RAIN. SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES INCREASES
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG 850MB JET OVER THE
AREA AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY. THIS WILL KEEP ALL
PRECIP FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD AS RAIN. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK INTO THE REGION. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S
FOR THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING MID 50S FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL WITH ALL OVERNIGHT PERIODS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE PATTERN INDICATE POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION EARLY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG H85 SOUTHERLY JET MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. IT WILL LIKELY BE
DRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 50 TO 90 PERCENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS EVENING
THEN CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT DUE
TO A LOW LEVEL JET.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 122341
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING REINFORCING COLD AIR
TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING TO OUR
E/NE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL STAY UP
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A 30 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET. LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE AS COLD
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
ALONG WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FINALLY EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP COLD AND DRY AIR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 40 IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO AROUND 50
IN THE CSRA WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW SURROUNDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL SURROUND THE SUNRISE AND
MORNING HOURS MONDAY WHEN A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA. ALL PARAMETERS CONSIDERED THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY FOR
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP IS
INCREASING. CURRENTLY THE WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE BETWEEN SUNRISE
AND LATE MORNING MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BY LATE MORNING
AND TURNING ALL PRECIP TO RAIN. SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES INCREASES
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG 850MB JET OVER THE
AREA AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY. THIS WILL KEEP ALL
PRECIP FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD AS RAIN. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK INTO THE REGION. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S
FOR THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING MID 50S FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL WITH ALL OVERNIGHT PERIODS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE PATTERN INDICATE POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION EARLY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG H85 SOUTHERLY JET MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. IT WILL LIKELY BE
DRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 50 TO 90 PERCENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS EVENING
THEN CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT DUE
TO A LOW LEVEL JET.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCHS 122337
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
637 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
REMAIN IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN AND PERSIST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE IS NOW EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WITH ITS TRAILING
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IS FORECAST TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES. SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND THE GRIDDED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
TO REFLECT THIS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
NORTHERN REACHES OF DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES TO THE LOWER
40S ACROSS FAR SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...COASTAL GEORGIA AND
INLAND PORTIONS OF LONG...LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES.

FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
* SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO CAPTURE
  WARMER TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
* SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO HOURLY SKY COVER TO REFLECT
  QUICKER THAN EXPECTED CLEARING.
* MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND DIRECTIONS TO BETTER CAPTURE THE
  EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THE STATIONARY FRONT LATER THIS EVENING.
* ZEROED OUT ALL GRIDDED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. DESPITE PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE...NORTHWEST FLOW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
DOMINATE. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S
(ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY) AND THE LOWERS 50S (ACROSS THE SAVANNAH
METRO AREA). TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES DUE TO
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY,
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN THE COOLING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE BEACHES. THE SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES WILL BE
NEAR 30 DEGREES WHILE THE GEORGIA BEACHES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S.
WINDS WILL BE 5-10 MPH. THIS WILL EQUATE TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS MOST OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES
AND THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES. THIS
IS AN INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE GEORGIA COUNTIES
BECAUSE MODELS TRENDED SLIGHTLY "WARMER" WITH THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH THE WINDS. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THE MOST LIKELY PLACES BEING THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL
ZONES.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND COLD DAY IS EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BARELY REACH
THE LOWER 40S (ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY) AND THE MID 40S (ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH METRO AREA). OUR SOUTHERNMOST GEORGIA COUNTIES MIGHT
REACH 50 DEGREES. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFF OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER DUE TO MORE OF AN ONSHORE WIND. IN
GENERAL...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S...COLDEST FAR
INLAND.

MONDAY...THE DAY WILL START OFF CHILLY AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN
REGARDING FROZEN PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK. MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST NEAR THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AND THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM QUICKLY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FOR NOW...KEPT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING FORECAST. THOUGH...THE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. POPS INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL TROUGH THAT SKIRTS
THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S.

LAKE WINDS...STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE MOULTRIE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO RAIN/SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...THUS THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A 50 TO
60 KT LOW LVL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...LIKELY LEADING TO
GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE
LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BEHIND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN TO
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT..LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
WATERS EARLY SATURDAY. INCREASING N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR OVER THE WATERS...ENHANCING MIXING PROFILES OVER
THE WARMER OFFSHORE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS FOR
THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A SECONDARY
SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS
A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT WILL
QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG LOW LVL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS AND POTENTIALLY GALE CONDITIONS OVER
WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 122337
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
637 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
REMAIN IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN AND PERSIST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE IS NOW EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WITH ITS TRAILING
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IS FORECAST TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES. SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND THE GRIDDED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
TO REFLECT THIS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
NORTHERN REACHES OF DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES TO THE LOWER
40S ACROSS FAR SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...COASTAL GEORGIA AND
INLAND PORTIONS OF LONG...LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES.

FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
* SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO CAPTURE
  WARMER TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
* SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO HOURLY SKY COVER TO REFLECT
  QUICKER THAN EXPECTED CLEARING.
* MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND DIRECTIONS TO BETTER CAPTURE THE
  EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THE STATIONARY FRONT LATER THIS EVENING.
* ZEROED OUT ALL GRIDDED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. DESPITE PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE...NORTHWEST FLOW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
DOMINATE. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S
(ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY) AND THE LOWERS 50S (ACROSS THE SAVANNAH
METRO AREA). TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES DUE TO
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY,
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN THE COOLING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE BEACHES. THE SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES WILL BE
NEAR 30 DEGREES WHILE THE GEORGIA BEACHES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S.
WINDS WILL BE 5-10 MPH. THIS WILL EQUATE TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS MOST OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES
AND THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES. THIS
IS AN INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE GEORGIA COUNTIES
BECAUSE MODELS TRENDED SLIGHTLY "WARMER" WITH THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH THE WINDS. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THE MOST LIKELY PLACES BEING THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL
ZONES.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND COLD DAY IS EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BARELY REACH
THE LOWER 40S (ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY) AND THE MID 40S (ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH METRO AREA). OUR SOUTHERNMOST GEORGIA COUNTIES MIGHT
REACH 50 DEGREES. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFF OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER DUE TO MORE OF AN ONSHORE WIND. IN
GENERAL...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S...COLDEST FAR
INLAND.

MONDAY...THE DAY WILL START OFF CHILLY AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN
REGARDING FROZEN PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK. MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST NEAR THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AND THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM QUICKLY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FOR NOW...KEPT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING FORECAST. THOUGH...THE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. POPS INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL TROUGH THAT SKIRTS
THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S.

LAKE WINDS...STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE MOULTRIE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO RAIN/SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...THUS THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A 50 TO
60 KT LOW LVL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...LIKELY LEADING TO
GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE
LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BEHIND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN TO
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT..LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
WATERS EARLY SATURDAY. INCREASING N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR OVER THE WATERS...ENHANCING MIXING PROFILES OVER
THE WARMER OFFSHORE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS FOR
THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A SECONDARY
SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS
A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT WILL
QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG LOW LVL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS AND POTENTIALLY GALE CONDITIONS OVER
WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 122337
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
637 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
REMAIN IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN AND PERSIST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE IS NOW EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WITH ITS TRAILING
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IS FORECAST TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES. SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND THE GRIDDED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
TO REFLECT THIS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
NORTHERN REACHES OF DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES TO THE LOWER
40S ACROSS FAR SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...COASTAL GEORGIA AND
INLAND PORTIONS OF LONG...LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES.

FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
* SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO CAPTURE
  WARMER TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
* SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO HOURLY SKY COVER TO REFLECT
  QUICKER THAN EXPECTED CLEARING.
* MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND DIRECTIONS TO BETTER CAPTURE THE
  EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THE STATIONARY FRONT LATER THIS EVENING.
* ZEROED OUT ALL GRIDDED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. DESPITE PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE...NORTHWEST FLOW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
DOMINATE. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S
(ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY) AND THE LOWERS 50S (ACROSS THE SAVANNAH
METRO AREA). TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES DUE TO
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY,
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN THE COOLING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE BEACHES. THE SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES WILL BE
NEAR 30 DEGREES WHILE THE GEORGIA BEACHES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S.
WINDS WILL BE 5-10 MPH. THIS WILL EQUATE TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS MOST OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES
AND THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES. THIS
IS AN INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE GEORGIA COUNTIES
BECAUSE MODELS TRENDED SLIGHTLY "WARMER" WITH THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH THE WINDS. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THE MOST LIKELY PLACES BEING THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL
ZONES.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND COLD DAY IS EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BARELY REACH
THE LOWER 40S (ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY) AND THE MID 40S (ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH METRO AREA). OUR SOUTHERNMOST GEORGIA COUNTIES MIGHT
REACH 50 DEGREES. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFF OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER DUE TO MORE OF AN ONSHORE WIND. IN
GENERAL...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S...COLDEST FAR
INLAND.

MONDAY...THE DAY WILL START OFF CHILLY AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN
REGARDING FROZEN PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK. MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST NEAR THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AND THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM QUICKLY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FOR NOW...KEPT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING FORECAST. THOUGH...THE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. POPS INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL TROUGH THAT SKIRTS
THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S.

LAKE WINDS...STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE MOULTRIE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO RAIN/SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...THUS THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A 50 TO
60 KT LOW LVL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...LIKELY LEADING TO
GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE
LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BEHIND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN TO
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT..LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
WATERS EARLY SATURDAY. INCREASING N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR OVER THE WATERS...ENHANCING MIXING PROFILES OVER
THE WARMER OFFSHORE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS FOR
THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A SECONDARY
SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS
A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT WILL
QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG LOW LVL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS AND POTENTIALLY GALE CONDITIONS OVER
WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCAE 122314
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
614 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING REINFORCING COLD AIR
TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING TO OUR
E/NE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL STAY UP
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A 30 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET. LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE AS COLD
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
ALONG WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FINALLY EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP COLD AND DRY AIR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 40 IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO AROUND 50
IN THE CSRA WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW SURROUNDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL SURROUND THE SUNRISE AND
MORNING HOURS MONDAY WHEN A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA. ALL PARAMETERS CONSIDERED THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY FOR
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP IS
INCREASING. CURRENTLY THE WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE BETWEEN SUNRISE
AND LATE MORNING MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BY LATE MORNING
AND TURNING ALL PRECIP TO RAIN. SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES INCREASES
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG 850MB JET OVER THE
AREA AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY. THIS WILL KEEP ALL
PRECIP FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD AS RAIN. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK INTO THE REGION. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S
FOR THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING MID 50S FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL WITH ALL OVERNIGHT PERIODS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE PATTERN INDICATE POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION EARLY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG H85 SOUTHERLY JET MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. IT WILL LIKELY BE
DRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 50 TO 90 PERCENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE OFFSHORE LOW DEPARTS AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 02Z DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 122314
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
614 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING REINFORCING COLD AIR
TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING TO OUR
E/NE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL STAY UP
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A 30 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET. LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE AS COLD
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
ALONG WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FINALLY EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP COLD AND DRY AIR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 40 IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO AROUND 50
IN THE CSRA WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW SURROUNDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL SURROUND THE SUNRISE AND
MORNING HOURS MONDAY WHEN A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA. ALL PARAMETERS CONSIDERED THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY FOR
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP IS
INCREASING. CURRENTLY THE WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE BETWEEN SUNRISE
AND LATE MORNING MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BY LATE MORNING
AND TURNING ALL PRECIP TO RAIN. SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES INCREASES
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG 850MB JET OVER THE
AREA AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY. THIS WILL KEEP ALL
PRECIP FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD AS RAIN. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK INTO THE REGION. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S
FOR THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING MID 50S FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL WITH ALL OVERNIGHT PERIODS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE PATTERN INDICATE POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION EARLY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG H85 SOUTHERLY JET MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. IT WILL LIKELY BE
DRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 50 TO 90 PERCENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE OFFSHORE LOW DEPARTS AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 02Z DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 122314
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
614 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING REINFORCING COLD AIR
TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING TO OUR
E/NE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL STAY UP
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A 30 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET. LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE AS COLD
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
ALONG WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FINALLY EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP COLD AND DRY AIR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 40 IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO AROUND 50
IN THE CSRA WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW SURROUNDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL SURROUND THE SUNRISE AND
MORNING HOURS MONDAY WHEN A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA. ALL PARAMETERS CONSIDERED THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY FOR
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP IS
INCREASING. CURRENTLY THE WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE BETWEEN SUNRISE
AND LATE MORNING MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BY LATE MORNING
AND TURNING ALL PRECIP TO RAIN. SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES INCREASES
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG 850MB JET OVER THE
AREA AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY. THIS WILL KEEP ALL
PRECIP FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD AS RAIN. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK INTO THE REGION. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S
FOR THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING MID 50S FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL WITH ALL OVERNIGHT PERIODS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE PATTERN INDICATE POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION EARLY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG H85 SOUTHERLY JET MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. IT WILL LIKELY BE
DRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 50 TO 90 PERCENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE OFFSHORE LOW DEPARTS AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 02Z DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 122104
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
404 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
REMAIN IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN AND PERSIST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF OVER SC ZONES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE FAR EASTERN SC COAST SHIFTS FARTHER
OFFSHORE. A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND INCREASING WINDS FROM
THE NW. ONCE THE COLD ADVECTION INITIATES LATER TONIGHT...TEMPS
WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. DESPITE PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE...NORTHWEST FLOW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
DOMINATE. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S
(ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY) AND THE LOWERS 50S (ACROSS THE SAVANNAH
METRO AREA). TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES DUE TO
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY,
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN THE COOLING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE BEACHES. THE SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES WILL BE
NEAR 30 DEGREES WHILE THE GEORGIA BEACHES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S.
WINDS WILL BE 5-10 MPH. THIS WILL EQUATE TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS MOST OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES
AND THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES. THIS
IS AN INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE GEORGIA COUNTIES
BECAUSE MODELS TRENDED SLIGHTLY "WARMER" WITH THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH THE WINDS. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THE MOST LIKELY PLACES BEING THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL
ZONES.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND COLD DAY IS EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BARELY REACH
THE LOWER 40S (ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY) AND THE MID 40S (ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH METRO AREA). OUR SOUTHERNMOST GEORGIA COUNTIES MIGHT
REACH 50 DEGREES. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFF OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER DUE TO MORE OF AN ONSHORE WIND. IN
GENERAL...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S...COLDEST FAR
INLAND.

MONDAY...THE DAY WILL START OFF CHILLY AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN
REGARDING FROZEN PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK. MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST NEAR THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AND THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM QUICKLY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FOR NOW...KEPT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING FORECAST. THOUGH...THE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. POPS INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL TROUGH THAT SKIRTS
THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S.

LAKE WINDS...STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE MOULTRIE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO RAIN/SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...THUS THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A 50 TO
60 KT LOW LVL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...LIKELY LEADING TO
GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE
LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH TAF SITES WILL LIFT TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN TO
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC/NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING COLDER
AIR OVER THE WATERS...ENHANCING MIXING PROFILES OVER THE WARMER
OFFSHORE WATERS. WE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS AND LATE TONIGHT FOR THE CHARLESTON
NEARSHORE WATERS MAINLY DUE TO 25 KT GUSTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A SECONDARY
SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS
A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT WILL
QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG LOW LVL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS AND POTENTIALLY GALE CONDITIONS OVER
WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JRL/MS
MARINE...JRL/MS




000
FXUS62 KCAE 121958
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
258 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING REINFORCING COLD AIR
TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW/SLEET TO THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS TODAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NC THIS AFTERNOON
AND OFF THE COAST BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LAST OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SKIES CLEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL STAY UP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A 30 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET. LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE AS COLD
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
ALONG WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FINALLY EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP COLD AND DRY AIR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 40 IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO AROUND 50
IN THE CSRA WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW SURROUNDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL SURROUND THE SUNRISE AND
MORNING HOURS MONDAY WHEN A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA. ALL PARAMETERS CONSIDERED THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY FOR
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP IS
INCREASING. CURRENTLY THE WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE BETWEEN SUNRISE
AND LATE MORNING MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BY LATE MORNING
AND TURNING ALL PRECIP TO RAIN. SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES INCREASES
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG 850MB JET OVER THE
AREA AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY. THIS WILL KEEP ALL
PRECIP FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD AS RAIN. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK INTO THE REGION. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S
FOR THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING MID 50S FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL WITH ALL OVERNIGHT PERIODS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE PATTERN INDICATE POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION EARLY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG H85 SOUTHERLY JET MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. IT WILL LIKELY BE
DRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 50 TO 90 PERCENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE OFFSHORE LOW DEPARTS AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 02Z DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 121958
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
258 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING REINFORCING COLD AIR
TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW/SLEET TO THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS TODAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NC THIS AFTERNOON
AND OFF THE COAST BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LAST OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SKIES CLEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL STAY UP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A 30 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET. LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE AS COLD
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
ALONG WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FINALLY EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP COLD AND DRY AIR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 40 IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO AROUND 50
IN THE CSRA WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW SURROUNDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL SURROUND THE SUNRISE AND
MORNING HOURS MONDAY WHEN A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA. ALL PARAMETERS CONSIDERED THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY FOR
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP IS
INCREASING. CURRENTLY THE WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE BETWEEN SUNRISE
AND LATE MORNING MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BY LATE MORNING
AND TURNING ALL PRECIP TO RAIN. SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES INCREASES
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG 850MB JET OVER THE
AREA AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY. THIS WILL KEEP ALL
PRECIP FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD AS RAIN. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK INTO THE REGION. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S
FOR THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING MID 50S FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL WITH ALL OVERNIGHT PERIODS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE PATTERN INDICATE POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION EARLY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG H85 SOUTHERLY JET MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. IT WILL LIKELY BE
DRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 50 TO 90 PERCENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE OFFSHORE LOW DEPARTS AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 02Z DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 121958
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
258 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING REINFORCING COLD AIR
TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW/SLEET TO THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS TODAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NC THIS AFTERNOON
AND OFF THE COAST BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LAST OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SKIES CLEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL STAY UP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A 30 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET. LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE AS COLD
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
ALONG WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FINALLY EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP COLD AND DRY AIR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 40 IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO AROUND 50
IN THE CSRA WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW SURROUNDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL SURROUND THE SUNRISE AND
MORNING HOURS MONDAY WHEN A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA. ALL PARAMETERS CONSIDERED THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY FOR
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP IS
INCREASING. CURRENTLY THE WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE BETWEEN SUNRISE
AND LATE MORNING MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BY LATE MORNING
AND TURNING ALL PRECIP TO RAIN. SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES INCREASES
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG 850MB JET OVER THE
AREA AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY. THIS WILL KEEP ALL
PRECIP FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD AS RAIN. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK INTO THE REGION. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S
FOR THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING MID 50S FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL WITH ALL OVERNIGHT PERIODS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE PATTERN INDICATE POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION EARLY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG H85 SOUTHERLY JET MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. IT WILL LIKELY BE
DRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 50 TO 90 PERCENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE OFFSHORE LOW DEPARTS AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 02Z DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 121958
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
258 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING REINFORCING COLD AIR
TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW/SLEET TO THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS TODAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NC THIS AFTERNOON
AND OFF THE COAST BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LAST OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SKIES CLEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL STAY UP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A 30 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET. LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE AS COLD
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
ALONG WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FINALLY EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP COLD AND DRY AIR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 40 IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO AROUND 50
IN THE CSRA WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW SURROUNDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL SURROUND THE SUNRISE AND
MORNING HOURS MONDAY WHEN A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA. ALL PARAMETERS CONSIDERED THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY FOR
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP IS
INCREASING. CURRENTLY THE WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE BETWEEN SUNRISE
AND LATE MORNING MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BY LATE MORNING
AND TURNING ALL PRECIP TO RAIN. SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES INCREASES
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG 850MB JET OVER THE
AREA AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY. THIS WILL KEEP ALL
PRECIP FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD AS RAIN. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK INTO THE REGION. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S
FOR THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING MID 50S FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL WITH ALL OVERNIGHT PERIODS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE PATTERN INDICATE POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION EARLY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG H85 SOUTHERLY JET MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. IT WILL LIKELY BE
DRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 50 TO 90 PERCENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE OFFSHORE LOW DEPARTS AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 02Z DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 121958
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
258 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING REINFORCING COLD AIR
TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW/SLEET TO THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS TODAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NC THIS AFTERNOON
AND OFF THE COAST BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LAST OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SKIES CLEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL STAY UP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A 30 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET. LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE AS COLD
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
ALONG WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FINALLY EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP COLD AND DRY AIR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 40 IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO AROUND 50
IN THE CSRA WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW SURROUNDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL SURROUND THE SUNRISE AND
MORNING HOURS MONDAY WHEN A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA. ALL PARAMETERS CONSIDERED THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY FOR
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP IS
INCREASING. CURRENTLY THE WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE BETWEEN SUNRISE
AND LATE MORNING MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BY LATE MORNING
AND TURNING ALL PRECIP TO RAIN. SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES INCREASES
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG 850MB JET OVER THE
AREA AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY. THIS WILL KEEP ALL
PRECIP FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ONWARD AS RAIN. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK INTO THE REGION. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S
FOR THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING MID 50S FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TOWARD NORMAL WITH ALL OVERNIGHT PERIODS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE PATTERN INDICATE POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION EARLY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG H85 SOUTHERLY JET MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. IT WILL LIKELY BE
DRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 50 TO 90 PERCENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE OFFSHORE LOW DEPARTS AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 02Z DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 121947
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
247 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NO MAJOR FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HARD TO BELIEVE
WE HAD SNOW EVENT THIS MORNING IN FAR NE GA WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES DURING THIS PERIOD...
QUITE A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER...ESP SATURDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR POSSIBLE FIRE DANGER ISSUES. OTHERWISE USED BIAS-
CORRECTED BLEND FOR TEMPS AND WIND.

SNELSON


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST IN THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM. HAVING
SAID THAT...WITH THE NAM NOW EXTENDING INTO MONDAY...IT IS BRINGING
THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF ATL/AHN KEEPING NORTH GA IN THE COLD AIR
WEDGE. 950/925 TEMPS ACROSS NORTHEAST GA STAY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON MONDAY THEN WARMING ABOVE FREEZING. THE H8
ZERO DEGREE LINE IS ACROSS NORTH GA MONDAY MORNING THEN QUICKLY
RISING WELL NORTH OF THE CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT IS LENDING TO
A HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THIS SCENARIO HAPPENING IS THE 12Z GFS IS NOW
MUCH COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS BRINGING THE SURFACE LOW IN A
SIMILAR FASHION TO THE NAM. THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS ALSO A
LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THIS SHOULD AID IN KEEPING THE
WEDGE OVER MUCH OF NORTH GA. SCATTERED/ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD MOVE INTO EXTREME NORTH GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. BASED ON PARTIAL THICKNESS OF THE
GFS/NAM...THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND
A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH GA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO ALL
RAIN BY NOON FROM NORTHWEST GA TO ATL TO AHN...WITH NORTHEAST GA
TRANSITIONING FROM SNOW TO A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX. AS THE SURFACE
LOW PULLS OFF TO OUR EAST...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY CHANGING THE PRECIP TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST
OF NORTH GA. THERE REMAINS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST GA.

IN ADDITIONAL TO WINTER WEATHER...HPC QPF GUIDANCE IS BRINGING OVER
1 INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP TO NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GA. THIS COULD
BE ENOUGH TO PUSH A FEW CREEKS AND RIVERS TO BANKFULL OR NEAR
FLOOD. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...AN H5 RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING AND THIS WILL
BRING A RAPID WARM UP TO THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

17


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SMALL CHANCE FOR FIRE DANGER CRITERIA SATURDAY AS RH DROPS TO 20-25
PCT OVER ALL BUT FAR NORTH GA AND FUELS MAY REACH 8PCT OR LOWER. NW
WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH SPEEDS OF 12-18MPH AND GUSTS TO
25MPH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 00Z SUN. WIND SHIFT TO WEST IN
PROGRESS OR ALREADY COMPLETED AND SHOULD REMAIN WEST THRU FCST.
WIND GUSTS TO 20-23KTS LIKELY AFTER 00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          29  43  22  40 /   0   0   0  10
ATLANTA         28  39  24  42 /   0   0   0  10
BLAIRSVILLE     21  31  17  36 /   5   0   0  20
CARTERSVILLE    26  37  21  42 /   0   0   0  10
COLUMBUS        34  48  26  49 /   0   0   0  10
GAINESVILLE     27  37  22  38 /   0   0   0  10
MACON           34  48  25  46 /   0   0   0  10
ROME            26  37  20  43 /   0   0   0  10
PEACHTREE CITY  29  41  23  44 /   0   0   0  10
VIDALIA         38  52  29  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...SNELSON




000
FXUS62 KCAE 121830
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
130 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING REINFORCING COLD AIR
TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW/SLEET TO THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS TODAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NC THIS AFTERNOON
AND OFF THE COAST BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LAST OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SKIES CLEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL STAY UP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A 30 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET. LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE AS COLD
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD AND DRY PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE PATTERN INDICATE POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION EARLY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG H85 SOUTHERLY JET MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. IT WILL LIKELY BE
DRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 50 TO 90 PERCENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE OFFSHORE LOW DEPARTS AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 02Z DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC




000
FXUS62 KFFC 121800 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
100 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
HAVE SENT OUT A COUPLE GRID AND PRODUCT UPDATES TO CLEAR OUT
CLOUDS AND ANY PRECIP. WINDS STARTING TO GUST IN W AND NW GA.
WATCHING 12Z MODELS CLOSELY AND APPEARS GFS AND NAM ARE BACK TO
KEEPING COLD AIR IN NE GA A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREV RUNS. 12Z
CANADIAN SLOWER THAN PREV RUN NOW MATCHING OTHER MODEL TIMING BUT
CAME IN A TOUCH WARMER THAN 00Z RUN. STILL MESSAGING THAT
SIGNIFICANT ICE EVENT POSSIBLE MONDAY IN WEDGE PRONE AREAS OF NE
GA.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST PORTION OF FCST PERIOD STARTS WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND
LIMITED ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD FLIRTING WITH THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA THRU THIS MORNING. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESP FOR THE FAR NE
REACH OF THE AREA THOUGH CHANCE REMAINS SLIGHT AT BEST WITH NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. ASIDE FROM THIS FEATURE WE SHOULD BE
DOMINATED BY DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG 1040-MB HIGH SLIDING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. THIS CANADIAN AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE
THE COLDEST YET OF THE SEASON AS RESULTANT TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN
DIPPING ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO NORMS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL
BRING SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
ALSO REACH CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME AS
WELL. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ISSUANCES SINCE CONDITIONS ARE
SOMEWHAT BORDERLINE AND THE DAYTIME SUITE OF GUIDANCE MAY LEAN
MORESO IN ANOTHER DIRECTION. ALSO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON SINCE RH VALUES LOOK TO REACH
CRITERIA WITH SOME DRYING FUELS.

BAKER

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEDGE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. CURRENT MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON STRENGTH OF
WEDGE AND EXTENT OF COLD AIR...GENERALLY WARMER OVERALL. THIS
WOULD AFFECT TYPE AND LOCATION OF ANY PRECIP MIX. HAVE TRIED TO
COMPROMISE BY STAYING A BIT COOLER THAN LATEST MODELS ESPECIALLY
ON MONDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH SOME
FREEZING RAIN OVER A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH GA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. TOO EARLY TO ADVERTISE AMOUNTS. ALSO...THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS GA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BREAKING
DOWN THE WEDGE SOONER. IF THIS IS THE CASE...TUESDAY LOOKS ALL
LIQUID AND ONLY A PORTION OF NORTHEAST GA WOULD HAVE A CHANCE FOR
FROZEN PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IS DRY AND WARMER.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 00Z SUN. WIND SHIFT TO WEST IN
PROGRESS OR ALREADY COMPLETED AND SHOULD REMAIN WEST THRU FCST.
WIND GUSTS TO 20-23KTS LIKELY AFTER 00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  29  43  22 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         57  28  39  24 /   5   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     46  21  31  17 /  30   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    55  26  37  21 /   5   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        64  34  48  26 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     51  27  37  22 /  10   0   0   0
MACON           63  34  48  25 /   5   0   0   0
ROME            56  26  37  20 /   5   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  29  41  23 /   5   0   0   0
VIDALIA         65  38  52  29 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...SNELSON




000
FXUS62 KFFC 121800 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
100 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
HAVE SENT OUT A COUPLE GRID AND PRODUCT UPDATES TO CLEAR OUT
CLOUDS AND ANY PRECIP. WINDS STARTING TO GUST IN W AND NW GA.
WATCHING 12Z MODELS CLOSELY AND APPEARS GFS AND NAM ARE BACK TO
KEEPING COLD AIR IN NE GA A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREV RUNS. 12Z
CANADIAN SLOWER THAN PREV RUN NOW MATCHING OTHER MODEL TIMING BUT
CAME IN A TOUCH WARMER THAN 00Z RUN. STILL MESSAGING THAT
SIGNIFICANT ICE EVENT POSSIBLE MONDAY IN WEDGE PRONE AREAS OF NE
GA.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST PORTION OF FCST PERIOD STARTS WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND
LIMITED ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD FLIRTING WITH THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA THRU THIS MORNING. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESP FOR THE FAR NE
REACH OF THE AREA THOUGH CHANCE REMAINS SLIGHT AT BEST WITH NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. ASIDE FROM THIS FEATURE WE SHOULD BE
DOMINATED BY DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG 1040-MB HIGH SLIDING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. THIS CANADIAN AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE
THE COLDEST YET OF THE SEASON AS RESULTANT TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN
DIPPING ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO NORMS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL
BRING SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
ALSO REACH CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME AS
WELL. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ISSUANCES SINCE CONDITIONS ARE
SOMEWHAT BORDERLINE AND THE DAYTIME SUITE OF GUIDANCE MAY LEAN
MORESO IN ANOTHER DIRECTION. ALSO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON SINCE RH VALUES LOOK TO REACH
CRITERIA WITH SOME DRYING FUELS.

BAKER

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEDGE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. CURRENT MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON STRENGTH OF
WEDGE AND EXTENT OF COLD AIR...GENERALLY WARMER OVERALL. THIS
WOULD AFFECT TYPE AND LOCATION OF ANY PRECIP MIX. HAVE TRIED TO
COMPROMISE BY STAYING A BIT COOLER THAN LATEST MODELS ESPECIALLY
ON MONDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH SOME
FREEZING RAIN OVER A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH GA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. TOO EARLY TO ADVERTISE AMOUNTS. ALSO...THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS GA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BREAKING
DOWN THE WEDGE SOONER. IF THIS IS THE CASE...TUESDAY LOOKS ALL
LIQUID AND ONLY A PORTION OF NORTHEAST GA WOULD HAVE A CHANCE FOR
FROZEN PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IS DRY AND WARMER.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 00Z SUN. WIND SHIFT TO WEST IN
PROGRESS OR ALREADY COMPLETED AND SHOULD REMAIN WEST THRU FCST.
WIND GUSTS TO 20-23KTS LIKELY AFTER 00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  29  43  22 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         57  28  39  24 /   5   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     46  21  31  17 /  30   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    55  26  37  21 /   5   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        64  34  48  26 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     51  27  37  22 /  10   0   0   0
MACON           63  34  48  25 /   5   0   0   0
ROME            56  26  37  20 /   5   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  29  41  23 /   5   0   0   0
VIDALIA         65  38  52  29 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...SNELSON




000
FXUS62 KCHS 121750
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1250 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY WHILE A
STALLED FRONT LINGERS TO THE NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE A SECONDARY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN AND PERSIST MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WHILE A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF
MYRTLE BEACH. THUS FAR THE PRECIP HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED AND ONLY
OVER THE SC MIDLANDS THOUGH SKY COVER HAS BEEN EXTENSIVE SINCE
EARLY THIS MORNING. WE LOWERED POPS THIS MORNING BUT MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SOUTHERN SC AND THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
BETTER ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENS.

TEMPS ARE A CHALLENGE DUE TO THE FRONT IN PLACE AND POSSIBILITY OF
PARTIAL CLEARING OVER INLAND AREAS LATE. FAR NORTHERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER BUT MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH TONIGHT AFTER SKIES
CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WHILE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY...REINFORCING A COLD AIR MASS ALREADY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EARLY...THEN BEGIN A COOLING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DOMINATES ANY DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO
CLOUD COVER ALOFT. TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 20S IN COMBINATION WITH 5-10
MPH WINDS WILL SUPPORT WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 15 DEGREES OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER DRY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED AS PREVAILING NORTHEAST
WINDS OCCUR ALONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ANCHORED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONLY PEAK AROUND 40 DEGREES IN
NORTHERN AREAS...AND MID 40S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A TRANSITION IN
THE PATTERN SHOULD THEN BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT AS A MORE ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S...COLDEST INLAND.

MONDAY...THE DAY WILL START OFF CHILLY AND THERE IS A SOME CONCERN
OF FROZEN PRECIP BEFORE DAYBREAK SHOULD DRIZZLE DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEPICT
PRECIP ACCUMULATION OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
QUICKLY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
THAT SKIRTS THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD APPROACH THE MID/UPPER
50S OVER MOST AREAS. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO RAIN/SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...THUS THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A 50 TO
60 KT LOW LVL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...LIKELY LEADING TO
GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE
LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH TAF SITES WILL LIFT TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITHIN RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING
AND MOVE WELL TO THE NE TODAY WHILE A TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERS THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE WATERS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM LIGHT ONSHORE OFF CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS
MORNING TO VARIABLE OFF THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TO SW OVER GEORGIA WATERS. WE MAINTAINED A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WATERS 40-60 NM OFFSHORE OF GEORGIA TODAY BUT EXPECT
LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE CHILLY SHELF WATERS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
BEYOND 20 NM OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
STRONG PRES RISES COULD INCITE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF
THE NEAR WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED JETTING AREAS SUCH AS
GRAYS REEF AND SEAWARD FROM TYBEE ISLAND. SEAS WILL BUILD LATE
TONIGHT TO 4-6 FT OFFSHORE WITH A CHOPPY 2-3 FT ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A SECONDARY
SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH AND THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG
LOW LVL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS AND POTENTIALLY GALE CONDITIONS OVER
WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 121750
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1250 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY WHILE A
STALLED FRONT LINGERS TO THE NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE A SECONDARY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN AND PERSIST MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WHILE A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF
MYRTLE BEACH. THUS FAR THE PRECIP HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED AND ONLY
OVER THE SC MIDLANDS THOUGH SKY COVER HAS BEEN EXTENSIVE SINCE
EARLY THIS MORNING. WE LOWERED POPS THIS MORNING BUT MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SOUTHERN SC AND THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
BETTER ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENS.

TEMPS ARE A CHALLENGE DUE TO THE FRONT IN PLACE AND POSSIBILITY OF
PARTIAL CLEARING OVER INLAND AREAS LATE. FAR NORTHERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER BUT MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH TONIGHT AFTER SKIES
CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WHILE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY...REINFORCING A COLD AIR MASS ALREADY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EARLY...THEN BEGIN A COOLING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DOMINATES ANY DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO
CLOUD COVER ALOFT. TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 20S IN COMBINATION WITH 5-10
MPH WINDS WILL SUPPORT WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 15 DEGREES OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER DRY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED AS PREVAILING NORTHEAST
WINDS OCCUR ALONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ANCHORED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONLY PEAK AROUND 40 DEGREES IN
NORTHERN AREAS...AND MID 40S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A TRANSITION IN
THE PATTERN SHOULD THEN BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT AS A MORE ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S...COLDEST INLAND.

MONDAY...THE DAY WILL START OFF CHILLY AND THERE IS A SOME CONCERN
OF FROZEN PRECIP BEFORE DAYBREAK SHOULD DRIZZLE DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEPICT
PRECIP ACCUMULATION OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
QUICKLY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
THAT SKIRTS THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD APPROACH THE MID/UPPER
50S OVER MOST AREAS. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO RAIN/SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...THUS THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A 50 TO
60 KT LOW LVL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...LIKELY LEADING TO
GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE
LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH TAF SITES WILL LIFT TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITHIN RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING
AND MOVE WELL TO THE NE TODAY WHILE A TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERS THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE WATERS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM LIGHT ONSHORE OFF CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS
MORNING TO VARIABLE OFF THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TO SW OVER GEORGIA WATERS. WE MAINTAINED A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WATERS 40-60 NM OFFSHORE OF GEORGIA TODAY BUT EXPECT
LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE CHILLY SHELF WATERS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
BEYOND 20 NM OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
STRONG PRES RISES COULD INCITE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF
THE NEAR WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED JETTING AREAS SUCH AS
GRAYS REEF AND SEAWARD FROM TYBEE ISLAND. SEAS WILL BUILD LATE
TONIGHT TO 4-6 FT OFFSHORE WITH A CHOPPY 2-3 FT ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A SECONDARY
SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH AND THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG
LOW LVL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS AND POTENTIALLY GALE CONDITIONS OVER
WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...DPB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 121750
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1250 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY WHILE A
STALLED FRONT LINGERS TO THE NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE A SECONDARY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN AND PERSIST MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WHILE A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF
MYRTLE BEACH. THUS FAR THE PRECIP HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED AND ONLY
OVER THE SC MIDLANDS THOUGH SKY COVER HAS BEEN EXTENSIVE SINCE
EARLY THIS MORNING. WE LOWERED POPS THIS MORNING BUT MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SOUTHERN SC AND THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
BETTER ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENS.

TEMPS ARE A CHALLENGE DUE TO THE FRONT IN PLACE AND POSSIBILITY OF
PARTIAL CLEARING OVER INLAND AREAS LATE. FAR NORTHERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER BUT MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH TONIGHT AFTER SKIES
CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WHILE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY...REINFORCING A COLD AIR MASS ALREADY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EARLY...THEN BEGIN A COOLING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DOMINATES ANY DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO
CLOUD COVER ALOFT. TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 20S IN COMBINATION WITH 5-10
MPH WINDS WILL SUPPORT WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 15 DEGREES OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER DRY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED AS PREVAILING NORTHEAST
WINDS OCCUR ALONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ANCHORED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONLY PEAK AROUND 40 DEGREES IN
NORTHERN AREAS...AND MID 40S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A TRANSITION IN
THE PATTERN SHOULD THEN BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT AS A MORE ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S...COLDEST INLAND.

MONDAY...THE DAY WILL START OFF CHILLY AND THERE IS A SOME CONCERN
OF FROZEN PRECIP BEFORE DAYBREAK SHOULD DRIZZLE DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEPICT
PRECIP ACCUMULATION OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
QUICKLY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
THAT SKIRTS THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD APPROACH THE MID/UPPER
50S OVER MOST AREAS. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO RAIN/SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...THUS THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A 50 TO
60 KT LOW LVL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...LIKELY LEADING TO
GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE
LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH TAF SITES WILL LIFT TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITHIN RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING
AND MOVE WELL TO THE NE TODAY WHILE A TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERS THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE WATERS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM LIGHT ONSHORE OFF CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS
MORNING TO VARIABLE OFF THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TO SW OVER GEORGIA WATERS. WE MAINTAINED A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WATERS 40-60 NM OFFSHORE OF GEORGIA TODAY BUT EXPECT
LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE CHILLY SHELF WATERS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
BEYOND 20 NM OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
STRONG PRES RISES COULD INCITE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF
THE NEAR WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED JETTING AREAS SUCH AS
GRAYS REEF AND SEAWARD FROM TYBEE ISLAND. SEAS WILL BUILD LATE
TONIGHT TO 4-6 FT OFFSHORE WITH A CHOPPY 2-3 FT ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A SECONDARY
SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH AND THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG
LOW LVL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS AND POTENTIALLY GALE CONDITIONS OVER
WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 121559
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1059 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY WHILE A
STALLED FRONT LINGERS TO THE NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE A SECONDARY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN AND PERSIST MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WHILE A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF
MYRTLE BEACH. THUS FAR THE PRECIP HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED AND ONLY
OVER THE SC MIDLANDS THOUGH SKY COVER HAS BEEN EXTENSIVE SINCE
EARLY THIS MORNING. WE LOWERED POPS THIS MORNING BUT MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SOUTHERN SC AND THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
BETTER ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENS.

TEMPS ARE A CHALLENGE DUE TO THE FRONT IN PLACE AND POSSIBILITY OF
PARTIAL CLEARING OVER INLAND AREAS LATE. FAR NORTHERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER BUT MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH TONIGHT AFTER SKIES
CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WHILE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY...REINFORCING A COLD AIR MASS ALREADY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EARLY...THEN BEGIN A COOLING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DOMINATES ANY DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO
CLOUD COVER ALOFT. TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 20S IN COMBINATION WITH 5-10
MPH WINDS WILL SUPPORT WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 15 DEGREES OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER DRY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED AS PREVAILING NORTHEAST
WINDS OCCUR ALONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ANCHORED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONLY PEAK AROUND 40 DEGREES IN
NORTHERN AREAS...AND MID 40S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A TRANSITION IN
THE PATTERN SHOULD THEN BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT AS A MORE ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S...COLDEST INLAND.

MONDAY...THE DAY WILL START OFF CHILLY AND THERE IS A SOME CONCERN
OF FROZEN PRECIP BEFORE DAYBREAK SHOULD DRIZZLE DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEPICT
PRECIP ACCUMULATION OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
QUICKLY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
THAT SKIRTS THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD APPROACH THE MID/UPPER
50S OVER MOST AREAS. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO RAIN/SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...THUS THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A 50 TO
60 KT LOW LVL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...LIKELY LEADING TO
GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE
LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ACROSS SE GEORGIA INCLUDING KSAV ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NE TODAY ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT WITH KCHS LIKELY TO BECOME MVFR
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON PER 06Z VERTICAL MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL INVERSION PROFILES. SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN
THE COASTAL CORRIDOR BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINS ARE SLIM. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED SCATTERED OUT FROM SW TO NE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AFTER 00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITHIN RAIN/SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WITH A PASSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING
AND MOVE WELL TO THE NE TODAY WHILE A TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERS THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE WATERS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM LIGHT ONSHORE OFF CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS
MORNING TO VARIABLE OFF THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TO SW OVER GEORGIA WATERS. WE MAINTAINED A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WATERS 40-60 NM OFFSHORE OF GEORGIA TODAY BUT EXPECT
LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE CHILLY SHELF WATERS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
BEYOND 20 NM OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
STRONG PRES RISES COULD INCITE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF
THE NEAR WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED JETTING AREAS SUCH AS
GRAYS REEF AND SEAWARD FROM TYBEE ISLAND. SEAS WILL BUILD LATE
TONIGHT TO 4-6 FT OFFSHORE WITH A CHOPPY 2-3 FT ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A SECONDARY
SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH AND THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG
LOW LVL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS AND POTENTIALLY GALE CONDITIONS OVER
WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB




000
FXUS62 KCAE 121436
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
936 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS TENNESSEE THIS MORNING IS
RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN MIDLANDS THIS MORNING. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO BE VERY
LOW IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WHICH WILL SUPPORT DIABATIC COOLING
EFFECTS AS PRECIP FALLS THROUGH THE DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 30S AND WILL LIKELY NOT RISE MUCH
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH THE PRECIP FALLING. GETTING SOME
REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW/SLEET MIX IN NEWBERRY COUNTY AND
EXPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE
PRECIPITATION SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE PRECIPITATION IS VERY LIGHT AND
NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE OR HAVE ANY IMPACTS. HAVE UPDATED POPS
AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BUT AGAIN LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD AND DRY PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE PATTERN INDICATE POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION EARLY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG H85 SOUTHERLY JET MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. IT WILL LIKELY BE
DRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 50 TO 90 PERCENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA COAST
ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AT TAF SITES...BUT BULK
OF PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT
ANY OF THE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO
SEA AND DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. SFC
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE NORTHEAST BUT WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FURTHER AWAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC



000
FXUS62 KCAE 121436
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
936 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS TENNESSEE THIS MORNING IS
RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN MIDLANDS THIS MORNING. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO BE VERY
LOW IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WHICH WILL SUPPORT DIABATIC COOLING
EFFECTS AS PRECIP FALLS THROUGH THE DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 30S AND WILL LIKELY NOT RISE MUCH
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH THE PRECIP FALLING. GETTING SOME
REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW/SLEET MIX IN NEWBERRY COUNTY AND
EXPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE
PRECIPITATION SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE PRECIPITATION IS VERY LIGHT AND
NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE OR HAVE ANY IMPACTS. HAVE UPDATED POPS
AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BUT AGAIN LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD AND DRY PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE PATTERN INDICATE POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION EARLY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG H85 SOUTHERLY JET MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. IT WILL LIKELY BE
DRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 50 TO 90 PERCENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA COAST
ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AT TAF SITES...BUT BULK
OF PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT
ANY OF THE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO
SEA AND DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. SFC
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE NORTHEAST BUT WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FURTHER AWAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC




000
FXUS62 KCHS 121210
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
710 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY WHILE A
STALLED FRONT LINGERS TO THE NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE A SECONDARY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN AND PERSIST MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A CONSOLIDATING WAVE OF LOW PRES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT ALIGNED
JUST NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN
OFFSHORE TODAY MOVING WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER
TODAY. THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A RIBBON OF CHANNELED VORTICITY ZIPS
OVER NORTH GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF UPPER DIFLUENCE AND 850 MB TO 500 OMEGA ACROSS THE AREA BUT
TODAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A CANDIDATE FOR JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE BOARD. WE DID EXTEND SOME LOWER POPS ACROSS MOST
OF SE GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT WHILE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST THERE WILL MAY A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE.

TEMPS WILL BE A CHALLENGE TODAY AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR READINGS
GOING WARMER ONCE AGAIN IN GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND WE
HAVE BUMPED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH OF I-16. WE
ALSO TRENDED A BIT HIGHER AT CHARLESTON BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN
COOLER UP AROUND THE SANTEE COOPER LAKES WHERE THE PATTERN STAYS
MORE WEDGED. MODELS INDICATE CLEARING SHOULD BE AFTER SUNSET MANY
AREAS ALONG AND E OF I-95...PERHAPS LATE AFTERNOON OVER INLAND
GEORGIA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH TONIGHT AFTER
SKIES CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WHILE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY...REINFORCING A COLD AIR MASS ALREADY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EARLY...THEN BEGIN A COOLING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DOMINATES ANY DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO
CLOUD COVER ALOFT. TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 20S IN COMBINATION WITH 5-10
MPH WINDS WILL SUPPORT WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 15 DEGREES OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER DRY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED AS PREVAILING NORTHEAST
WINDS OCCUR ALONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ANCHORED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONLY PEAK AROUND 40 DEGREES IN
NORTHERN AREAS...AND MID 40S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A TRANSITION IN
THE PATTERN SHOULD THEN BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT AS A MORE ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S...COLDEST INLAND.

MONDAY...THE DAY WILL START OFF CHILLY AND THERE IS A SOME CONCERN
OF FROZEN PRECIP BEFORE DAYBREAK SHOULD DRIZZLE DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEPICT
PRECIP ACCUMULATION OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
QUICKLY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
THAT SKIRTS THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD APPROACH THE MID/UPPER
50S OVER MOST AREAS. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO RAIN/SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...THUS THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A 50 TO
60 KT LOW LVL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...LIKELY LEADING TO
GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE
LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ACROSS SE GEORGIA INCLUDING KSAV ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NE TODAY ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT WITH KCHS LIKELY TO BECOME MVFR
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON PER 06Z VERTICAL MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL INVERSION PROFILES. SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN
THE COASTAL CORRIDOR BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINS ARE SLIM. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED SCATTERED OUT FROM SW TO NE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AFTER 00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITHIN RAIN/SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WITH A PASSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING
AND MOVE WELL TO THE NE TODAY WHILE A TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERS THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE WATERS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM LIGHT ONSHORE OFF CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS
MORNING TO VARIABLE OFF THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TO SW OVER GEORGIA WATERS. WE MAINTAINED A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WATERS 40-60 NM OFFSHORE OF GEORGIA TODAY BUT EXPECT
LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE CHILLY SHELF WATERS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
BEYOND 20 NM OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
STRONG PRES RISES COULD INCITE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF
THE NEAR WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED JETTING AREAS SUCH AS
GRAYS REEF AND SEAWARD FROM TYBEE ISLAND. SEAS WILL BUILD LATE
TONIGHT TO 4-6 FT OFFSHORE WITH A CHOPPY 2-3 FT ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A SECONDARY
SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH AND THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG
LOW LVL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS AND POTENTIALLY GALE CONDITIONS OVER
WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB




000
FXUS62 KFFC 121150
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
650 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST PORTION OF FCST PERIOD STARTS WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND
LIMITED ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD FLIRTING WITH THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA THRU THIS MORNING. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESP FOR THE FAR NE
REACH OF THE AREA THOUGH CHANCE REMAINS SLIGHT AT BEST WITH NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. ASIDE FROM THIS FEATURE WE SHOULD BE
DOMINATED BY DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG 1040-MB HIGH SLIDING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. THIS CANADIAN AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE
THE COLDEST YET OF THE SEASON AS RESULTANT TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN
DIPPING ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO NORMS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL
BRING SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
ALSO REACH CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME AS
WELL. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ISSUANCES SINCE CONDITIONS ARE
SOMEWHAT BORDERLINE AND THE DAYTIME SUITE OF GUIDANCE MAY LEAN
MORESO IN ANOTHER DIRECTION. ALSO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON SINCE RH VALUES LOOK TO REACH
CRITERIA WITH SOME DRYING FUELS.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEDGE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. CURRENT MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON STRENGTH OF
WEDGE AND EXTENT OF COLD AIR...GENERALLY WARMER OVERALL. THIS
WOULD AFFECT TYPE AND LOCATION OF ANY PRECIP MIX. HAVE TRIED TO
COMPROMISE BY STAYING A BIT COOLER THAN LATEST MODELS ESPECIALLY
ON MONDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH SOME
FREEZING RAIN OVER A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH GA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. TOO EARLY TO ADVERTISE AMOUNTS. ALSO...THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS GA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BREAKING
DOWN THE WEDGE SOONER. IF THIS IS THE CASE...TUESDAY LOOKS ALL
LIQUID AND ONLY A PORTION OF NORTHEAST GA WOULD HAVE A CHANCE FOR
FROZEN PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IS DRY AND WARMER.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
NORTHERN CIGS HAVE BEEN STAYING MORE IN VFR RANGE POSSIBLY DOWN TO
5 KFT OTHERWISE ALTO DECK...THOUGH COULD STILL SEE SOME LOWER END
VFR WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. SOUTHERN SITES INITIALLY HAVE
BETTER CHANCE AT MVFR THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER
OUT BY ABOUT 18-21Z. INITIAL LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS FOR KATL AND
CALM ELSEWHERE SHOULD BECOME WNW NEAR 7 KTS AFTER 18Z AND INCREASE
WITH SOME 18-22 KT GUSTS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  29  43  21 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         56  28  39  23 /   5   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     46  21  31  16 /  20   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    54  26  37  19 /   5   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        64  34  47  26 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     50  27  37  21 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           63  33  47  24 /   5   0   0   0
ROME            55  26  37  19 /   5   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  29  41  22 /   5   0   0   0
VIDALIA         65  38  51  28 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS62 KFFC 121150
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
650 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST PORTION OF FCST PERIOD STARTS WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND
LIMITED ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD FLIRTING WITH THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA THRU THIS MORNING. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESP FOR THE FAR NE
REACH OF THE AREA THOUGH CHANCE REMAINS SLIGHT AT BEST WITH NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. ASIDE FROM THIS FEATURE WE SHOULD BE
DOMINATED BY DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG 1040-MB HIGH SLIDING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. THIS CANADIAN AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE
THE COLDEST YET OF THE SEASON AS RESULTANT TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN
DIPPING ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO NORMS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL
BRING SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
ALSO REACH CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME AS
WELL. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ISSUANCES SINCE CONDITIONS ARE
SOMEWHAT BORDERLINE AND THE DAYTIME SUITE OF GUIDANCE MAY LEAN
MORESO IN ANOTHER DIRECTION. ALSO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON SINCE RH VALUES LOOK TO REACH
CRITERIA WITH SOME DRYING FUELS.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEDGE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. CURRENT MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON STRENGTH OF
WEDGE AND EXTENT OF COLD AIR...GENERALLY WARMER OVERALL. THIS
WOULD AFFECT TYPE AND LOCATION OF ANY PRECIP MIX. HAVE TRIED TO
COMPROMISE BY STAYING A BIT COOLER THAN LATEST MODELS ESPECIALLY
ON MONDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH SOME
FREEZING RAIN OVER A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH GA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. TOO EARLY TO ADVERTISE AMOUNTS. ALSO...THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS GA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BREAKING
DOWN THE WEDGE SOONER. IF THIS IS THE CASE...TUESDAY LOOKS ALL
LIQUID AND ONLY A PORTION OF NORTHEAST GA WOULD HAVE A CHANCE FOR
FROZEN PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IS DRY AND WARMER.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
NORTHERN CIGS HAVE BEEN STAYING MORE IN VFR RANGE POSSIBLY DOWN TO
5 KFT OTHERWISE ALTO DECK...THOUGH COULD STILL SEE SOME LOWER END
VFR WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. SOUTHERN SITES INITIALLY HAVE
BETTER CHANCE AT MVFR THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER
OUT BY ABOUT 18-21Z. INITIAL LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS FOR KATL AND
CALM ELSEWHERE SHOULD BECOME WNW NEAR 7 KTS AFTER 18Z AND INCREASE
WITH SOME 18-22 KT GUSTS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  29  43  21 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         56  28  39  23 /   5   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     46  21  31  16 /  20   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    54  26  37  19 /   5   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        64  34  47  26 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     50  27  37  21 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           63  33  47  24 /   5   0   0   0
ROME            55  26  37  19 /   5   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  29  41  22 /   5   0   0   0
VIDALIA         65  38  51  28 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS62 KFFC 121150
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
650 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST PORTION OF FCST PERIOD STARTS WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND
LIMITED ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD FLIRTING WITH THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA THRU THIS MORNING. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESP FOR THE FAR NE
REACH OF THE AREA THOUGH CHANCE REMAINS SLIGHT AT BEST WITH NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. ASIDE FROM THIS FEATURE WE SHOULD BE
DOMINATED BY DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG 1040-MB HIGH SLIDING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. THIS CANADIAN AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE
THE COLDEST YET OF THE SEASON AS RESULTANT TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN
DIPPING ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO NORMS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL
BRING SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
ALSO REACH CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME AS
WELL. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ISSUANCES SINCE CONDITIONS ARE
SOMEWHAT BORDERLINE AND THE DAYTIME SUITE OF GUIDANCE MAY LEAN
MORESO IN ANOTHER DIRECTION. ALSO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON SINCE RH VALUES LOOK TO REACH
CRITERIA WITH SOME DRYING FUELS.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEDGE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. CURRENT MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON STRENGTH OF
WEDGE AND EXTENT OF COLD AIR...GENERALLY WARMER OVERALL. THIS
WOULD AFFECT TYPE AND LOCATION OF ANY PRECIP MIX. HAVE TRIED TO
COMPROMISE BY STAYING A BIT COOLER THAN LATEST MODELS ESPECIALLY
ON MONDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH SOME
FREEZING RAIN OVER A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH GA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. TOO EARLY TO ADVERTISE AMOUNTS. ALSO...THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS GA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BREAKING
DOWN THE WEDGE SOONER. IF THIS IS THE CASE...TUESDAY LOOKS ALL
LIQUID AND ONLY A PORTION OF NORTHEAST GA WOULD HAVE A CHANCE FOR
FROZEN PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IS DRY AND WARMER.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
NORTHERN CIGS HAVE BEEN STAYING MORE IN VFR RANGE POSSIBLY DOWN TO
5 KFT OTHERWISE ALTO DECK...THOUGH COULD STILL SEE SOME LOWER END
VFR WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. SOUTHERN SITES INITIALLY HAVE
BETTER CHANCE AT MVFR THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER
OUT BY ABOUT 18-21Z. INITIAL LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS FOR KATL AND
CALM ELSEWHERE SHOULD BECOME WNW NEAR 7 KTS AFTER 18Z AND INCREASE
WITH SOME 18-22 KT GUSTS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  29  43  21 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         56  28  39  23 /   5   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     46  21  31  16 /  20   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    54  26  37  19 /   5   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        64  34  47  26 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     50  27  37  21 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           63  33  47  24 /   5   0   0   0
ROME            55  26  37  19 /   5   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  29  41  22 /   5   0   0   0
VIDALIA         65  38  51  28 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS62 KCAE 121119
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
619 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA WAS HELPING
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWED MUCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS OFF THE NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE PATTERN WAS
PROGRESSIVE AND THERE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE
TO DEVELOP IN THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
SUGGESTED SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTING MAINLY
THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW MAY OCCUR. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN DISPLAYED
QPF LESS THAN 0.01 OF AN INCH. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAD 0.02 OF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION. IF WINTRY PRECIPITATION DOES
DEVELOP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT BECAUSE OF THE FAST SYSTEM
MOVEMENT...LIMITED MOISTURE AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE WILL
DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD AND DRY PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE PATTERN INDICATE POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION EARLY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG H85 SOUTHERLY JET MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. IT WILL LIKELY BE
DRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 50 TO 90 PERCENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA
COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AT TAF SITES...
...BUT BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM
THE NORTHEAST BUT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 121119
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
619 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA WAS HELPING
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWED MUCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS OFF THE NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE PATTERN WAS
PROGRESSIVE AND THERE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE
TO DEVELOP IN THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
SUGGESTED SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTING MAINLY
THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW MAY OCCUR. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN DISPLAYED
QPF LESS THAN 0.01 OF AN INCH. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAD 0.02 OF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION. IF WINTRY PRECIPITATION DOES
DEVELOP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT BECAUSE OF THE FAST SYSTEM
MOVEMENT...LIMITED MOISTURE AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE WILL
DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD AND DRY PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE PATTERN INDICATE POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION EARLY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG H85 SOUTHERLY JET MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. IT WILL LIKELY BE
DRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 50 TO 90 PERCENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA
COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AT TAF SITES...
...BUT BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM
THE NORTHEAST BUT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 121119
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
619 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA WAS HELPING
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWED MUCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS OFF THE NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE PATTERN WAS
PROGRESSIVE AND THERE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE
TO DEVELOP IN THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
SUGGESTED SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTING MAINLY
THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW MAY OCCUR. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN DISPLAYED
QPF LESS THAN 0.01 OF AN INCH. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAD 0.02 OF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION. IF WINTRY PRECIPITATION DOES
DEVELOP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT BECAUSE OF THE FAST SYSTEM
MOVEMENT...LIMITED MOISTURE AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE WILL
DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD AND DRY PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE PATTERN INDICATE POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION EARLY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG H85 SOUTHERLY JET MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. IT WILL LIKELY BE
DRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 50 TO 90 PERCENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA
COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AT TAF SITES...
...BUT BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM
THE NORTHEAST BUT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 121058
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
558 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA WAS HELPING
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWED MUCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS OFF THE NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE PATTERN WAS
PROGRESSIVE AND THERE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE
TO DEVELOP IN THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
SUGGESTED SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTING MAINLY
THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW MAY OCCUR. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN DISPLAYED
QPF LESS THAN 0.01 OF AN INCH. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAD 0.02 OF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION. IF WINTRY PRECIPITATION DOES
DEVELOP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT BECAUSE OF THE FAST SYSTEM
MOVEMENT...LIMITED MOISTURE AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE WILL
DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD AND DRY PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE PATTERN INDICATE POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION EARLY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG H85 SOUTHERLY JET MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. IT WILL LIKELY BE
DRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 50 TO 90 PERCENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z.

WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA
COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE INDICATING CIGS
LOWERING TO MVFR 12Z-15Z AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE SATURATED.
FORECASTED MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS AT CAE/CUB.

CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AT TAF SITES...
ESPECIALLY KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL
SITES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS. SHOULD SEE
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
CLEARING SKIES AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO
SEA AND DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 121058
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
558 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA WAS HELPING
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWED MUCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS OFF THE NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE PATTERN WAS
PROGRESSIVE AND THERE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE
TO DEVELOP IN THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
SUGGESTED SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTING MAINLY
THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW MAY OCCUR. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN DISPLAYED
QPF LESS THAN 0.01 OF AN INCH. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAD 0.02 OF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION. IF WINTRY PRECIPITATION DOES
DEVELOP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT BECAUSE OF THE FAST SYSTEM
MOVEMENT...LIMITED MOISTURE AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE WILL
DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD AND DRY PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE PATTERN INDICATE POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION EARLY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG H85 SOUTHERLY JET MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. IT WILL LIKELY BE
DRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 50 TO 90 PERCENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z.

WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA
COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE INDICATING CIGS
LOWERING TO MVFR 12Z-15Z AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE SATURATED.
FORECASTED MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS AT CAE/CUB.

CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AT TAF SITES...
ESPECIALLY KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL
SITES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS. SHOULD SEE
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
CLEARING SKIES AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO
SEA AND DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 121058
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
558 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA WAS HELPING
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWED MUCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS OFF THE NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE PATTERN WAS
PROGRESSIVE AND THERE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE
TO DEVELOP IN THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
SUGGESTED SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTING MAINLY
THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW MAY OCCUR. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN DISPLAYED
QPF LESS THAN 0.01 OF AN INCH. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAD 0.02 OF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION. IF WINTRY PRECIPITATION DOES
DEVELOP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT BECAUSE OF THE FAST SYSTEM
MOVEMENT...LIMITED MOISTURE AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE WILL
DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD AND DRY PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE PATTERN INDICATE POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION EARLY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG H85 SOUTHERLY JET MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. IT WILL LIKELY BE
DRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 50 TO 90 PERCENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z.

WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA
COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE INDICATING CIGS
LOWERING TO MVFR 12Z-15Z AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE SATURATED.
FORECASTED MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS AT CAE/CUB.

CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AT TAF SITES...
ESPECIALLY KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL
SITES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS. SHOULD SEE
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
CLEARING SKIES AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO
SEA AND DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 121058
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
558 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA WAS HELPING
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWED MUCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS OFF THE NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE PATTERN WAS
PROGRESSIVE AND THERE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE
TO DEVELOP IN THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
SUGGESTED SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTING MAINLY
THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW MAY OCCUR. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN DISPLAYED
QPF LESS THAN 0.01 OF AN INCH. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAD 0.02 OF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION. IF WINTRY PRECIPITATION DOES
DEVELOP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT BECAUSE OF THE FAST SYSTEM
MOVEMENT...LIMITED MOISTURE AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE WILL
DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD AND DRY PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE PATTERN INDICATE POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION EARLY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG H85 SOUTHERLY JET MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. IT WILL LIKELY BE
DRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 50 TO 90 PERCENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z.

WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA
COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE INDICATING CIGS
LOWERING TO MVFR 12Z-15Z AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE SATURATED.
FORECASTED MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS AT CAE/CUB.

CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AT TAF SITES...
ESPECIALLY KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL
SITES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS. SHOULD SEE
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
CLEARING SKIES AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO
SEA AND DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 121058
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
558 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA WAS HELPING
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWED MUCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS OFF THE NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE PATTERN WAS
PROGRESSIVE AND THERE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE
TO DEVELOP IN THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
SUGGESTED SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTING MAINLY
THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW MAY OCCUR. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN DISPLAYED
QPF LESS THAN 0.01 OF AN INCH. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAD 0.02 OF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION. IF WINTRY PRECIPITATION DOES
DEVELOP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT BECAUSE OF THE FAST SYSTEM
MOVEMENT...LIMITED MOISTURE AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE WILL
DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD AND DRY PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE PATTERN INDICATE POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION EARLY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG H85 SOUTHERLY JET MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. IT WILL LIKELY BE
DRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 50 TO 90 PERCENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z.

WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA
COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE INDICATING CIGS
LOWERING TO MVFR 12Z-15Z AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE SATURATED.
FORECASTED MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS AT CAE/CUB.

CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AT TAF SITES...
ESPECIALLY KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL
SITES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS. SHOULD SEE
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
CLEARING SKIES AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO
SEA AND DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 121057
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
557 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA WAS HELPING
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWED MUCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS OFF THE NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE PATTERN WAS
PROGRESSIVE AND THERE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE
TO DEVELOP IN THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
SUGGESTED SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTING MAINLY
THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW MAY
OCCUR. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN DISPLAYED QPF LESS THAN 0.01 OF AN
INCH. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAD 0.02 OF AN INCH IN THE NORTHEAST
SECTION. IF WINTRY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT BECAUSE OF THE FAST SYSTEM MOVEMENT...LIMITED MOISTURE AND
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. WE LEANED TOWARD THE
LOWER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD AND DRY PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE PATTERN INDICATE POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION EARLY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG H85 SOUTHERLY JET MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. IT WILL LIKELY BE
DRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 50 TO 90 PERCENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z.

WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA
COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE INDICATING CIGS
LOWERING TO MVFR 12Z-15Z AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE SATURATED.
FORECASTED MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS AT CAE/CUB.

CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AT TAF SITES...
ESPECIALLY KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL
SITES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS. SHOULD SEE
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
CLEARING SKIES AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO
SEA AND DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 121057
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
557 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA WAS HELPING
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWED MUCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS OFF THE NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE PATTERN WAS
PROGRESSIVE AND THERE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE
TO DEVELOP IN THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
SUGGESTED SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTING MAINLY
THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW MAY
OCCUR. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN DISPLAYED QPF LESS THAN 0.01 OF AN
INCH. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAD 0.02 OF AN INCH IN THE NORTHEAST
SECTION. IF WINTRY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT BECAUSE OF THE FAST SYSTEM MOVEMENT...LIMITED MOISTURE AND
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. WE LEANED TOWARD THE
LOWER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD AND DRY PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE PATTERN INDICATE POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION EARLY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG H85 SOUTHERLY JET MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. IT WILL LIKELY BE
DRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 50 TO 90 PERCENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z.

WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA
COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE INDICATING CIGS
LOWERING TO MVFR 12Z-15Z AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE SATURATED.
FORECASTED MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS AT CAE/CUB.

CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AT TAF SITES...
ESPECIALLY KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL
SITES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS. SHOULD SEE
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
CLEARING SKIES AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO
SEA AND DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS62 KCHS 120948
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
448 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY WHILE A
STALLED FRONT LINGERS TO THE NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE A SECONDARY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN AND PERSIST MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...OVERNIGHT CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY VARIABLE AND
TRANSIENT PROVIDING FLUCTUATING SURFACE TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. IN NORTHERN ZONES...TEMPS THAT FELL TO THE MID AND UPPER
30S LAST EVENING HAVE WARMED UNDER CLOUDINESS TO THE MID 40S BUT
MAY FALL BACK A BIT BY DAYBREAK AS CLOUDS ARE IN AND OUT. DRY
WEATHER ON TAP THROUGH 6 AM AS MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PCPN.

A CONSOLIDATING WAVE OF LOW PRES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT ALIGNED
JUST NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN
OFFSHORE TODAY MOVING WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER
TODAY. THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A RIBBON OF CHANNELED VORTICITY ZIPS
OVER NORTH GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE WILL BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UPPER DIFLUENCE AND 850 MB TO 500 OMEGA ACROSS THE AREA
BUT TODAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A CANDIDATE FOR JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD. WE DID EXTEND SOME LOWER POPS
ACROSS MOST OF SE GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT WHILE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL MAY A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SPARSE.

TEMPS WILL BE A CHALLENGE TODAY AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR READINGS
GOING WARMER ONCE AGAIN IN GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND WE
HAVE BUMPED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH OF I-16. WE
ALSO TRENDED A BIT HIGHER AT CHARLESTON BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN
COOLER UP AROUND THE SANTEE COOPER LAKES WHERE THE PATTERN STAYS
MORE WEDGED. MODELS INDICATE CLEARING SHOULD BE AFTER SUNSET MANY
AREAS ALONG AND E OF I-95...PERHAPS LATE AFTERNOON OVER INLAND
GEORGIA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH TONIGHT AFTER
SKIES CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WHILE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY...REINFORCING A COLD AIR MASS ALREADY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EARLY...THEN BEGIN A COOLING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DOMINATES ANY DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO
CLOUD COVER ALOFT. TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 20S IN COMBINATION WITH 5-10
MPH WINDS WILL SUPPORT WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 15 DEGREES OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER DRY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED AS PREVAILING NORTHEAST
WINDS OCCUR ALONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ANCHORED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONLY PEAK AROUND 40 DEGREES IN
NORTHERN AREAS...AND MID 40S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A TRANSITION IN
THE PATTERN SHOULD THEN BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT AS A MORE ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S...COLDEST INLAND.

MONDAY...THE DAY WILL START OFF CHILLY AND THERE IS A SOME CONCERN
OF FROZEN PRECIP BEFORE DAYBREAK SHOULD DRIZZLE DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEPICT
PRECIP ACCUMULATION OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
QUICKLY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
THAT SKIRTS THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD APPROACH THE MID/UPPER
50S OVER MOST AREAS. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO RAIN/SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...THUS THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A 50 TO
60 KT LOW LVL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...LIKELY LEADING TO
GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE
LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. CURRENT DATA
SUPPORT CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS AFTER SUNRISE AT KCHS
WHILE AT KSAV...MVFR CIGS LOOK TO SETTLE IN BY 10Z. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS STILL LOOK TO OCCUR AT KSAV THIS MORNING...BUT
PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY AN INCLUSION. PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR KCHS LATE TONIGHT...BUT NO
MEANINGFUL VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER. VFR WILL RETURN TO BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITHIN RAIN/SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WITH A PASSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING
AND MOVE WELL TO THE NE TODAY WHILE A TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERS THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE WATERS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM LIGHT ONSHORE OFF CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS
MORNING TO VARIABLE OFF THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TO SW OVER GEORGIA WATERS. WE MAINTAINED A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WATERS 40-60 NM OFFSHORE OF GEORGIA TODAY BUT EXPECT
LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE CHILLY SHELF WATERS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
BEYOND 20 NM OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
STRONG PRES RISES COULD INCITE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF
THE NEAR WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED JETTING AREAS SUCH AS
GRAYS REEF AND SEAWARD FROM TYBEE ISLAND. SEAS WILL BUILD LATE
TONIGHT TO 4-6 FT OFFSHORE WITH A CHOPPY 2-3 FT ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A SECONDARY
SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH AND THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG
LOW LVL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS AND POTENTIALLY GALE CONDITIONS OVER
WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 120948
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
448 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY WHILE A
STALLED FRONT LINGERS TO THE NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE A SECONDARY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN AND PERSIST MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...OVERNIGHT CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY VARIABLE AND
TRANSIENT PROVIDING FLUCTUATING SURFACE TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. IN NORTHERN ZONES...TEMPS THAT FELL TO THE MID AND UPPER
30S LAST EVENING HAVE WARMED UNDER CLOUDINESS TO THE MID 40S BUT
MAY FALL BACK A BIT BY DAYBREAK AS CLOUDS ARE IN AND OUT. DRY
WEATHER ON TAP THROUGH 6 AM AS MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PCPN.

A CONSOLIDATING WAVE OF LOW PRES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT ALIGNED
JUST NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN
OFFSHORE TODAY MOVING WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER
TODAY. THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A RIBBON OF CHANNELED VORTICITY ZIPS
OVER NORTH GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE WILL BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UPPER DIFLUENCE AND 850 MB TO 500 OMEGA ACROSS THE AREA
BUT TODAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A CANDIDATE FOR JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD. WE DID EXTEND SOME LOWER POPS
ACROSS MOST OF SE GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT WHILE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL MAY A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SPARSE.

TEMPS WILL BE A CHALLENGE TODAY AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR READINGS
GOING WARMER ONCE AGAIN IN GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND WE
HAVE BUMPED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH OF I-16. WE
ALSO TRENDED A BIT HIGHER AT CHARLESTON BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN
COOLER UP AROUND THE SANTEE COOPER LAKES WHERE THE PATTERN STAYS
MORE WEDGED. MODELS INDICATE CLEARING SHOULD BE AFTER SUNSET MANY
AREAS ALONG AND E OF I-95...PERHAPS LATE AFTERNOON OVER INLAND
GEORGIA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH TONIGHT AFTER
SKIES CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WHILE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY...REINFORCING A COLD AIR MASS ALREADY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EARLY...THEN BEGIN A COOLING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DOMINATES ANY DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO
CLOUD COVER ALOFT. TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 20S IN COMBINATION WITH 5-10
MPH WINDS WILL SUPPORT WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 15 DEGREES OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER DRY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED AS PREVAILING NORTHEAST
WINDS OCCUR ALONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ANCHORED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONLY PEAK AROUND 40 DEGREES IN
NORTHERN AREAS...AND MID 40S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A TRANSITION IN
THE PATTERN SHOULD THEN BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT AS A MORE ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S...COLDEST INLAND.

MONDAY...THE DAY WILL START OFF CHILLY AND THERE IS A SOME CONCERN
OF FROZEN PRECIP BEFORE DAYBREAK SHOULD DRIZZLE DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEPICT
PRECIP ACCUMULATION OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
QUICKLY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
THAT SKIRTS THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD APPROACH THE MID/UPPER
50S OVER MOST AREAS. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO RAIN/SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...THUS THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A 50 TO
60 KT LOW LVL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...LIKELY LEADING TO
GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE
LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. CURRENT DATA
SUPPORT CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS AFTER SUNRISE AT KCHS
WHILE AT KSAV...MVFR CIGS LOOK TO SETTLE IN BY 10Z. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS STILL LOOK TO OCCUR AT KSAV THIS MORNING...BUT
PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY AN INCLUSION. PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR KCHS LATE TONIGHT...BUT NO
MEANINGFUL VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER. VFR WILL RETURN TO BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITHIN RAIN/SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WITH A PASSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING
AND MOVE WELL TO THE NE TODAY WHILE A TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERS THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE WATERS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM LIGHT ONSHORE OFF CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS
MORNING TO VARIABLE OFF THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TO SW OVER GEORGIA WATERS. WE MAINTAINED A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WATERS 40-60 NM OFFSHORE OF GEORGIA TODAY BUT EXPECT
LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE CHILLY SHELF WATERS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
BEYOND 20 NM OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
STRONG PRES RISES COULD INCITE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF
THE NEAR WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED JETTING AREAS SUCH AS
GRAYS REEF AND SEAWARD FROM TYBEE ISLAND. SEAS WILL BUILD LATE
TONIGHT TO 4-6 FT OFFSHORE WITH A CHOPPY 2-3 FT ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A SECONDARY
SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH AND THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG
LOW LVL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS AND POTENTIALLY GALE CONDITIONS OVER
WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB




000
FXUS62 KCAE 120929
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
429 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST
WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA WAS HELPING
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWED MUCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS OFF THE NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE PATTERN WAS
PROGRESSIVE AND THERE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE
TO DEVELOP IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR...ARW...AND SPC WRF DID
NOT DISPLAY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA AND SUPPORTS OUR
FORECAST OF JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST
SECTION CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW MAY OCCUR IF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND SREF
MEAN DISPLAYED QPF LESS THAN 0.01 OF AN INCH. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAD 0.02 OF AN INCH IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION. IF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT BECAUSE OF THE
FAST SYSTEM MOVEMENT...LIMITED MOISTURE AND MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD AND DRY PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE PATTERN INDICATE POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION EARLY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG H85 SOUTHERLY JET MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. IT WILL LIKELY BE
DRY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 50 TO 90 PERCENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z.

WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA
COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE INDICATING CIGS
LOWERING TO MVFR 12Z-15Z AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE SATURATED.
FORECASTED MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS AT CAE/CUB.

CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AT TAF SITES...
ESPECIALLY KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL
SITES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS. SHOULD SEE
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
CLEARING SKIES AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO
SEA AND DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KFFC 120859
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
359 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST PORTION OF FCST PERIOD STARTS WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND
LIMITED ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD FLIRTING WITH THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA THRU THIS MORNING. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESP FOR THE FAR NE
REACH OF THE AREA THOUGH CHANCE REMAINS SLIGHT AT BEST WITH NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. ASIDE FROM THIS FEATURE WE SHOULD BE
DOMINATED BY DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG 1040-MB HIGH SLIDING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. THIS CANADIAN AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE
THE COLDEST YET OF THE SEASON AS RESULTANT TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN
DIPPING ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO NORMS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL
BRING SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
ALSO REACH CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME AS
WELL. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ISSUANCES SINCE CONDITIONS ARE
SOMEWHAT BORDERLINE AND THE DAYTIME SUITE OF GUIDANCE MAY LEAN
MORESO IN ANOTHER DIRECTION. ALSO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON SINCE RH VALUES LOOK TO REACH
CRITERIA WITH SOME DRYING FUELS.

BAKER


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEDGE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. CURRENT MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON STRENGTH OF
WEDGE AND EXTENT OF COLD AIR...GENERALLY WARMER OVERALL. THIS
WOULD AFFECT TYPE AND LOCATION OF ANY PRECIP MIX. HAVE TRIED TO
COMPROMISE BY STAYING A BIT COOLER THAN LATEST MODELS ESPECIALLY
ON MONDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH SOME
FREEZING RAIN OVER A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH GA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. TOO EARLY TO ADVERTISE AMOUNTS. ALSO...THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS GA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BREAKING
DOWN THE WEDGE SOONER. IF THIS IS THE CASE...TUESDAY LOOKS ALL
LIQUID AND ONLY A PORTION OF NORTHEAST GA WOULD HAVE A CHANCE FOR
FROZEN PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IS DRY AND WARMER.


41


&&


AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
EXPECTING LOW END VFR TO POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS INTO FRIDAY MID
MORNING FOR MOST SITES /SLIGHTLY SOONER FOR SOUTHERN SITES/. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE SHOULD KEEP SOME OF THE CIGS LINGERING MORE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES INTO FRIDAY THOUGH ALL AREAS SHOULD LIFT
AND SCATTER OUT BY ABOUT 18-21Z. INITIAL LIGHT NE WINDS FOR KATL
AND CALM ELSEWHERE SHOULD BECOME WNW NEAR 7 KTS AFTER 18Z AND
INCREASE WITH SOME 18-22 KT GUSTS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  29  43  21 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         56  28  39  23 /   5   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     46  21  31  16 /  20   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    54  26  37  19 /   5   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        64  34  47  26 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     50  27  37  21 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           63  33  47  24 /   5   0   0   0
ROME            55  26  37  19 /   5   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  29  41  22 /   5   0   0   0
VIDALIA         65  38  51  28 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS62 KFFC 120635
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
135 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE
FAST UPPER FLOW THAT COULD CAUSED SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINS COUNTIES. FLURRIES MEAN LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
THE DISTURBANCE IS FAST MOVING AND THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR FLURRIES
IS ABOUT 09-15Z.

OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND DECREASE LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE GRADIENT FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID U.S. MOVES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT AT CSG AND MCN
AND 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT ATL AND AHN. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 4-9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AT
CSG/MCN AND NEAR TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT ATL/AHN.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

BDL

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUR COLD AND DRY AS A COLD DOME OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION ON
SATURDAY AND DRIFTS EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND SEA BOARD BY LATE
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY EVENING AND ESTABLISH A STRONG WEDGE OF COLD AIR
NOSING INTO NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GA BY SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY
MORNING. AT THIS SAME TIME... MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE KICKING EAST OF THE PLAINS AND SPREADING
GULF MOISTURE OVER THE COLD WEDGE NEAR THE SURFACE... AND SETTING
THE STAGE FOR WINTRY PRECIP EVENT THAT BEGINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WINTRY PRECIP AMOUNTS... THE SCENARIO DOES
SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN... SNOW... SLEET AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF CENTRAL
GA FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING.

ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST
AND UPDATES FOR THIS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WINTRY WEATHER EVENT
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

39

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. HAVE ADDED A FEW FLURRIES TO TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE MONDAY/TUESDAY SYSTEM.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FLURRIES. H5 TROUGH SHIFTS
RAPIDLY EAST PUTTING THE CWA IN A DRY AND WESTNORTHWEST FLOW WITH
A RAPID REBOUND IN AFTERNOON TEMPS BY MID WEEK WITH TEMPS GOING
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
EXPECTING LOW END VFR TO POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS INTO FRIDAY MID
MORNING FOR MOST SITES /SLIGHTLY SOONER FOR SOUTHERN SITES/. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE SHOULD KEEP SOME OF THE CIGS LINGERING MORE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES INTO FRIDAY THOUGH ALL AREAS SHOULD LIFT
AND SCATTER OUT BY ABOUT 18-21Z. INITIAL LIGHT NE WINDS FOR KATL
AND CALM ELSEWHERE SHOULD BECOME WNW NEAR 7 KTS AFTER 18Z AND
INCREASE WITH SOME 18-22 KT GUSTS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  28  43  22 /  10   0   0   5
ATLANTA         56  29  40  23 /   5   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     47  21  31  15 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    54  26  37  20 /   5   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        64  35  47  26 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     50  27  37  21 /  10   0   0   5
MACON           63  33  47  24 /   5   0   0   0
ROME            55  26  37  20 /   5   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  59  29  41  22 /   5   0   0   0
VIDALIA         65  38  51  28 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS62 KFFC 120635
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
135 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE
FAST UPPER FLOW THAT COULD CAUSED SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINS COUNTIES. FLURRIES MEAN LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
THE DISTURBANCE IS FAST MOVING AND THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR FLURRIES
IS ABOUT 09-15Z.

OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND DECREASE LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE GRADIENT FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID U.S. MOVES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT AT CSG AND MCN
AND 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT ATL AND AHN. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 4-9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AT
CSG/MCN AND NEAR TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT ATL/AHN.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

BDL

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUR COLD AND DRY AS A COLD DOME OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION ON
SATURDAY AND DRIFTS EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND SEA BOARD BY LATE
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY EVENING AND ESTABLISH A STRONG WEDGE OF COLD AIR
NOSING INTO NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GA BY SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY
MORNING. AT THIS SAME TIME... MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE KICKING EAST OF THE PLAINS AND SPREADING
GULF MOISTURE OVER THE COLD WEDGE NEAR THE SURFACE... AND SETTING
THE STAGE FOR WINTRY PRECIP EVENT THAT BEGINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WINTRY PRECIP AMOUNTS... THE SCENARIO DOES
SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN... SNOW... SLEET AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF CENTRAL
GA FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING.

ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST
AND UPDATES FOR THIS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WINTRY WEATHER EVENT
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

39

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. HAVE ADDED A FEW FLURRIES TO TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE MONDAY/TUESDAY SYSTEM.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FLURRIES. H5 TROUGH SHIFTS
RAPIDLY EAST PUTTING THE CWA IN A DRY AND WESTNORTHWEST FLOW WITH
A RAPID REBOUND IN AFTERNOON TEMPS BY MID WEEK WITH TEMPS GOING
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
EXPECTING LOW END VFR TO POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS INTO FRIDAY MID
MORNING FOR MOST SITES /SLIGHTLY SOONER FOR SOUTHERN SITES/. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE SHOULD KEEP SOME OF THE CIGS LINGERING MORE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES INTO FRIDAY THOUGH ALL AREAS SHOULD LIFT
AND SCATTER OUT BY ABOUT 18-21Z. INITIAL LIGHT NE WINDS FOR KATL
AND CALM ELSEWHERE SHOULD BECOME WNW NEAR 7 KTS AFTER 18Z AND
INCREASE WITH SOME 18-22 KT GUSTS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  28  43  22 /  10   0   0   5
ATLANTA         56  29  40  23 /   5   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     47  21  31  15 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    54  26  37  20 /   5   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        64  35  47  26 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     50  27  37  21 /  10   0   0   5
MACON           63  33  47  24 /   5   0   0   0
ROME            55  26  37  20 /   5   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  59  29  41  22 /   5   0   0   0
VIDALIA         65  38  51  28 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS62 KCHS 120617
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
117 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL TRANSLATE EAST ALONG
A WEST-EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT AND REDEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY MORNING. GOES-EAST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO QUICKLY FILL IN AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT INTENSIFIES
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE
STRENGTHEN OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
KEEP A VERY DRY 5000 FT SUB-CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS HOLDING IN EXCESS OF 50
MB ALONG THE 285-295K SURFACES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS AS VIRGA AND THUS NON-MEASURABLE.

TEMPERATURES HAVE LEVELED OFF AND HAD RISEN IN SOME AREAS. THERE
REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AS ANY
CHANGE IN EXTENT OF THE CLOUD CANOPY WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE BISECTED BY A WEST TO EAST COLD
FRONT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT JUST OFF THE SC
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN SC AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
TIGHTENS UP AND THE LOW STRENGTHENS. WE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER OUR SC AND FAR EASTERN GA ZONES DURING FRIDAY
DAYTIME. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY WITH UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH TO UPPER 40S FAR NORTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING NNE WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL ONLY SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW/MID 40S.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN
THE LONG TERM WHICH IS A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INLAND THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS
THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. CURRENT
DATA SUPPORT CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY...WHILE AT KSAV MVFR CIGS LOOK TO SETTLE IN BY 10Z-11Z
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS STILL LOOK TO OCCUR AT
KSAV FRIDAY MORNING...BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY
AN INCLUSION. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR
KCHS LATE TONIGHT...BUT NO MEANINGFUL VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. VFR WILL RETURN TO BOTH TERMINALS
BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FAIRLY POTENT LOW PRES AREA IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AS IT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
SAVANNAH RIVER WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS FROM THE WEST BY DAWN.
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BACK TO MORE EASTERLY
ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WATERS EXCEPT
CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR
25 KT TOWARD THE GULF STREAM LATE BUT DO NOT EXPECT AN ADVISORY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS TO BUILD A BIT...UP TO 4 FT NEAR
THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS WITHIN 20 NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MARINE AREA DUE TO LOW-LEVEL JETTING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN 8 TO 10 HOUR WINDOW OF 25 KT GUSTS IS
EXPECTED OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SO WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT ZONE DURING FRIDAY DAYTIME.

ONCE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MONDAY
WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 120617
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
117 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL TRANSLATE EAST ALONG
A WEST-EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT AND REDEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY MORNING. GOES-EAST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO QUICKLY FILL IN AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT INTENSIFIES
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE
STRENGTHEN OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
KEEP A VERY DRY 5000 FT SUB-CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS HOLDING IN EXCESS OF 50
MB ALONG THE 285-295K SURFACES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS AS VIRGA AND THUS NON-MEASURABLE.

TEMPERATURES HAVE LEVELED OFF AND HAD RISEN IN SOME AREAS. THERE
REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AS ANY
CHANGE IN EXTENT OF THE CLOUD CANOPY WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE BISECTED BY A WEST TO EAST COLD
FRONT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT JUST OFF THE SC
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN SC AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
TIGHTENS UP AND THE LOW STRENGTHENS. WE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER OUR SC AND FAR EASTERN GA ZONES DURING FRIDAY
DAYTIME. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY WITH UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH TO UPPER 40S FAR NORTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING NNE WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL ONLY SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW/MID 40S.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN
THE LONG TERM WHICH IS A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INLAND THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS
THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. CURRENT
DATA SUPPORT CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY...WHILE AT KSAV MVFR CIGS LOOK TO SETTLE IN BY 10Z-11Z
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS STILL LOOK TO OCCUR AT
KSAV FRIDAY MORNING...BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY
AN INCLUSION. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR
KCHS LATE TONIGHT...BUT NO MEANINGFUL VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. VFR WILL RETURN TO BOTH TERMINALS
BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FAIRLY POTENT LOW PRES AREA IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AS IT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
SAVANNAH RIVER WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS FROM THE WEST BY DAWN.
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BACK TO MORE EASTERLY
ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WATERS EXCEPT
CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR
25 KT TOWARD THE GULF STREAM LATE BUT DO NOT EXPECT AN ADVISORY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS TO BUILD A BIT...UP TO 4 FT NEAR
THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS WITHIN 20 NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MARINE AREA DUE TO LOW-LEVEL JETTING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN 8 TO 10 HOUR WINDOW OF 25 KT GUSTS IS
EXPECTED OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SO WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT ZONE DURING FRIDAY DAYTIME.

ONCE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MONDAY
WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 120617
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
117 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL TRANSLATE EAST ALONG
A WEST-EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT AND REDEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY MORNING. GOES-EAST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO QUICKLY FILL IN AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT INTENSIFIES
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE
STRENGTHEN OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
KEEP A VERY DRY 5000 FT SUB-CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS HOLDING IN EXCESS OF 50
MB ALONG THE 285-295K SURFACES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS AS VIRGA AND THUS NON-MEASURABLE.

TEMPERATURES HAVE LEVELED OFF AND HAD RISEN IN SOME AREAS. THERE
REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AS ANY
CHANGE IN EXTENT OF THE CLOUD CANOPY WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE BISECTED BY A WEST TO EAST COLD
FRONT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT JUST OFF THE SC
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN SC AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
TIGHTENS UP AND THE LOW STRENGTHENS. WE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER OUR SC AND FAR EASTERN GA ZONES DURING FRIDAY
DAYTIME. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY WITH UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH TO UPPER 40S FAR NORTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING NNE WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL ONLY SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW/MID 40S.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN
THE LONG TERM WHICH IS A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INLAND THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS
THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. CURRENT
DATA SUPPORT CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY...WHILE AT KSAV MVFR CIGS LOOK TO SETTLE IN BY 10Z-11Z
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS STILL LOOK TO OCCUR AT
KSAV FRIDAY MORNING...BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY
AN INCLUSION. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR
KCHS LATE TONIGHT...BUT NO MEANINGFUL VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. VFR WILL RETURN TO BOTH TERMINALS
BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FAIRLY POTENT LOW PRES AREA IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AS IT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
SAVANNAH RIVER WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS FROM THE WEST BY DAWN.
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BACK TO MORE EASTERLY
ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WATERS EXCEPT
CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR
25 KT TOWARD THE GULF STREAM LATE BUT DO NOT EXPECT AN ADVISORY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS TO BUILD A BIT...UP TO 4 FT NEAR
THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS WITHIN 20 NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MARINE AREA DUE TO LOW-LEVEL JETTING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN 8 TO 10 HOUR WINDOW OF 25 KT GUSTS IS
EXPECTED OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SO WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT ZONE DURING FRIDAY DAYTIME.

ONCE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MONDAY
WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 120617
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
117 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL TRANSLATE EAST ALONG
A WEST-EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT AND REDEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY MORNING. GOES-EAST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO QUICKLY FILL IN AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT INTENSIFIES
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE
STRENGTHEN OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
KEEP A VERY DRY 5000 FT SUB-CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS HOLDING IN EXCESS OF 50
MB ALONG THE 285-295K SURFACES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS AS VIRGA AND THUS NON-MEASURABLE.

TEMPERATURES HAVE LEVELED OFF AND HAD RISEN IN SOME AREAS. THERE
REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AS ANY
CHANGE IN EXTENT OF THE CLOUD CANOPY WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE BISECTED BY A WEST TO EAST COLD
FRONT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT JUST OFF THE SC
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN SC AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
TIGHTENS UP AND THE LOW STRENGTHENS. WE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER OUR SC AND FAR EASTERN GA ZONES DURING FRIDAY
DAYTIME. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY WITH UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH TO UPPER 40S FAR NORTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING NNE WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL ONLY SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW/MID 40S.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN
THE LONG TERM WHICH IS A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INLAND THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS
THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. CURRENT
DATA SUPPORT CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY...WHILE AT KSAV MVFR CIGS LOOK TO SETTLE IN BY 10Z-11Z
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS STILL LOOK TO OCCUR AT
KSAV FRIDAY MORNING...BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY
AN INCLUSION. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR
KCHS LATE TONIGHT...BUT NO MEANINGFUL VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. VFR WILL RETURN TO BOTH TERMINALS
BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FAIRLY POTENT LOW PRES AREA IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AS IT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
SAVANNAH RIVER WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS FROM THE WEST BY DAWN.
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BACK TO MORE EASTERLY
ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WATERS EXCEPT
CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR
25 KT TOWARD THE GULF STREAM LATE BUT DO NOT EXPECT AN ADVISORY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS TO BUILD A BIT...UP TO 4 FT NEAR
THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS WITHIN 20 NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MARINE AREA DUE TO LOW-LEVEL JETTING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN 8 TO 10 HOUR WINDOW OF 25 KT GUSTS IS
EXPECTED OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SO WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT ZONE DURING FRIDAY DAYTIME.

ONCE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MONDAY
WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 120617
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
117 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL TRANSLATE EAST ALONG
A WEST-EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT AND REDEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY MORNING. GOES-EAST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO QUICKLY FILL IN AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT INTENSIFIES
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE
STRENGTHEN OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
KEEP A VERY DRY 5000 FT SUB-CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS HOLDING IN EXCESS OF 50
MB ALONG THE 285-295K SURFACES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS AS VIRGA AND THUS NON-MEASURABLE.

TEMPERATURES HAVE LEVELED OFF AND HAD RISEN IN SOME AREAS. THERE
REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AS ANY
CHANGE IN EXTENT OF THE CLOUD CANOPY WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE BISECTED BY A WEST TO EAST COLD
FRONT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT JUST OFF THE SC
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN SC AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
TIGHTENS UP AND THE LOW STRENGTHENS. WE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER OUR SC AND FAR EASTERN GA ZONES DURING FRIDAY
DAYTIME. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY WITH UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH TO UPPER 40S FAR NORTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING NNE WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL ONLY SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW/MID 40S.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN
THE LONG TERM WHICH IS A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INLAND THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS
THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. CURRENT
DATA SUPPORT CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY...WHILE AT KSAV MVFR CIGS LOOK TO SETTLE IN BY 10Z-11Z
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS STILL LOOK TO OCCUR AT
KSAV FRIDAY MORNING...BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY
AN INCLUSION. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR
KCHS LATE TONIGHT...BUT NO MEANINGFUL VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. VFR WILL RETURN TO BOTH TERMINALS
BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FAIRLY POTENT LOW PRES AREA IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AS IT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
SAVANNAH RIVER WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS FROM THE WEST BY DAWN.
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BACK TO MORE EASTERLY
ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WATERS EXCEPT
CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR
25 KT TOWARD THE GULF STREAM LATE BUT DO NOT EXPECT AN ADVISORY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS TO BUILD A BIT...UP TO 4 FT NEAR
THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS WITHIN 20 NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MARINE AREA DUE TO LOW-LEVEL JETTING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN 8 TO 10 HOUR WINDOW OF 25 KT GUSTS IS
EXPECTED OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SO WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT ZONE DURING FRIDAY DAYTIME.

ONCE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MONDAY
WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 120512
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1212 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY THEN MOVE
FARTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY
FRIDAY WHILE DEEPENING. MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR DAYBREAK. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 8 MPH TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT SUNRISE WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. USING THE TOP DOWN
METHOD...MODELS DO BRING IN A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW/ICE
PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 17Z. THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...WITH
POPS OF ONLY 20-30 PERCENT...AND EVEN IF THE PRECIP DOES FALL THE
QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MODELS STILL
SHOWING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MOST INDICATING QPF OF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. DRYING WILL BEGIN BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PUSHES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...AROUND 50 CENTRAL...AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX...HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S AND WARM
TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN THE LONG TERM AS THE MODELS HAVE MADE
SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE AREA SUNDAY
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER
NORTHERN MS/AL MONDAY...ACROSS NORTHERN GA AND THE SC UPSTATE
MONDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BECAUSE OF RUN TO RUN
CHANGES THE MODELS HAVE MADE. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND
KEEP ANY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN MIDLANDS. AS SUCH HAVE REMAINED WITH HIGH CHANCE
AND LIKELY POPS...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED AS
MODEL CONSISTENCY INCREASES. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL
AGAIN BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THEN WARM
EACH TO BECOMING NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS BASES AROUND 6000 FEET INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
GUIDANCE KEEPS CIGS VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THEN INDICATING
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR 12Z-15Z AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES MORE SATURATED.
WE FORECASTED MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS AT CAE/CUB.

CAN NOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY MORNING AT TAF SITES...
ESPECIALLY KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL SITES.
HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS. SHOULD SEE A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEARING
SKIES AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 120512
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1212 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY THEN MOVE
FARTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY
FRIDAY WHILE DEEPENING. MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR DAYBREAK. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 8 MPH TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT SUNRISE WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. USING THE TOP DOWN
METHOD...MODELS DO BRING IN A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW/ICE
PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 17Z. THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...WITH
POPS OF ONLY 20-30 PERCENT...AND EVEN IF THE PRECIP DOES FALL THE
QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MODELS STILL
SHOWING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MOST INDICATING QPF OF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. DRYING WILL BEGIN BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PUSHES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...AROUND 50 CENTRAL...AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX...HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S AND WARM
TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN THE LONG TERM AS THE MODELS HAVE MADE
SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE AREA SUNDAY
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER
NORTHERN MS/AL MONDAY...ACROSS NORTHERN GA AND THE SC UPSTATE
MONDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BECAUSE OF RUN TO RUN
CHANGES THE MODELS HAVE MADE. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND
KEEP ANY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN MIDLANDS. AS SUCH HAVE REMAINED WITH HIGH CHANCE
AND LIKELY POPS...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED AS
MODEL CONSISTENCY INCREASES. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL
AGAIN BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THEN WARM
EACH TO BECOMING NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS BASES AROUND 6000 FEET INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
GUIDANCE KEEPS CIGS VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THEN INDICATING
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR 12Z-15Z AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES MORE SATURATED.
WE FORECASTED MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS AT CAE/CUB.

CAN NOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY MORNING AT TAF SITES...
ESPECIALLY KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL SITES.
HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS. SHOULD SEE A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEARING
SKIES AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 120512
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1212 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY THEN MOVE
FARTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY
FRIDAY WHILE DEEPENING. MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR DAYBREAK. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 8 MPH TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT SUNRISE WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. USING THE TOP DOWN
METHOD...MODELS DO BRING IN A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW/ICE
PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 17Z. THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...WITH
POPS OF ONLY 20-30 PERCENT...AND EVEN IF THE PRECIP DOES FALL THE
QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MODELS STILL
SHOWING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MOST INDICATING QPF OF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. DRYING WILL BEGIN BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PUSHES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...AROUND 50 CENTRAL...AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX...HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S AND WARM
TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN THE LONG TERM AS THE MODELS HAVE MADE
SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE AREA SUNDAY
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER
NORTHERN MS/AL MONDAY...ACROSS NORTHERN GA AND THE SC UPSTATE
MONDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BECAUSE OF RUN TO RUN
CHANGES THE MODELS HAVE MADE. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND
KEEP ANY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN MIDLANDS. AS SUCH HAVE REMAINED WITH HIGH CHANCE
AND LIKELY POPS...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED AS
MODEL CONSISTENCY INCREASES. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL
AGAIN BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THEN WARM
EACH TO BECOMING NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS BASES AROUND 6000 FEET INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
GUIDANCE KEEPS CIGS VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THEN INDICATING
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR 12Z-15Z AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES MORE SATURATED.
WE FORECASTED MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS AT CAE/CUB.

CAN NOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY MORNING AT TAF SITES...
ESPECIALLY KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL SITES.
HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS. SHOULD SEE A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEARING
SKIES AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 120338
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1038 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY THEN MOVE
FARTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY
FRIDAY WHILE DEEPENING. MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN DRY AS WELL AS MOST
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR DAYBREAK. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING WILL FILL IN WITH LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 8 MPH TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT SUNRISE WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. USING THE TOP DOWN
METHOD...MODELS DO BRING IN A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW/ICE
PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 17Z. THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...WITH
POPS OF ONLY 20-30 PERCENT...AND EVEN IF THE PRECIP DOES FALL THE
QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MODELS STILL
SHOWING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MOST INDICATING QPF OF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. DRYING WILL BEGIN BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PUSHES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...AROUND 50 CENTRAL...AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX...HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH
INTO THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S AND WARM
TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S
SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS HAVE MADE
SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM FRO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER
NORTHERN MS/AL ON MONDAY...ACROSS NORTHERN GA AND THE SC UPSTATE
MONDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE RUN TO RUN
CHANGES THE MODELS HAVE MADE. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND
KEEP ANY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN MIDLANDS. AS SUCH HAVE REMAINED WITH HIGH CHANCE
AND LIKELY POPS...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED AS
MODEL CONSISTENCY INCREASES. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL
AGAIN BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THEN WARM
EACH TO BECOMING NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS BASES AROUND 6000 FEET INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
GUIDANCE KEEPS CIGS VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THEN INDICATING
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR 12Z-15Z AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES MORE SATURATED.
WE FORECASTED MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS AT CAE/CUB.

CAN NOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY MORNING AT TAF SITES...
ESPECIALLY KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL SITES.
HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS. SHOULD SEE A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEARING
SKIES AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 120338
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1038 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY THEN MOVE
FARTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY
FRIDAY WHILE DEEPENING. MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN DRY AS WELL AS MOST
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR DAYBREAK. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING WILL FILL IN WITH LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 8 MPH TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT SUNRISE WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. USING THE TOP DOWN
METHOD...MODELS DO BRING IN A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW/ICE
PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 17Z. THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...WITH
POPS OF ONLY 20-30 PERCENT...AND EVEN IF THE PRECIP DOES FALL THE
QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MODELS STILL
SHOWING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MOST INDICATING QPF OF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. DRYING WILL BEGIN BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PUSHES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...AROUND 50 CENTRAL...AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX...HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH
INTO THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S AND WARM
TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S
SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS HAVE MADE
SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM FRO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER
NORTHERN MS/AL ON MONDAY...ACROSS NORTHERN GA AND THE SC UPSTATE
MONDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE RUN TO RUN
CHANGES THE MODELS HAVE MADE. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND
KEEP ANY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN MIDLANDS. AS SUCH HAVE REMAINED WITH HIGH CHANCE
AND LIKELY POPS...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED AS
MODEL CONSISTENCY INCREASES. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL
AGAIN BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THEN WARM
EACH TO BECOMING NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS BASES AROUND 6000 FEET INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
GUIDANCE KEEPS CIGS VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THEN INDICATING
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR 12Z-15Z AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES MORE SATURATED.
WE FORECASTED MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS AT CAE/CUB.

CAN NOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY MORNING AT TAF SITES...
ESPECIALLY KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL SITES.
HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS. SHOULD SEE A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEARING
SKIES AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 120338
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1038 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY THEN MOVE
FARTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY
FRIDAY WHILE DEEPENING. MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN DRY AS WELL AS MOST
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR DAYBREAK. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING WILL FILL IN WITH LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 8 MPH TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT SUNRISE WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. USING THE TOP DOWN
METHOD...MODELS DO BRING IN A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW/ICE
PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 17Z. THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...WITH
POPS OF ONLY 20-30 PERCENT...AND EVEN IF THE PRECIP DOES FALL THE
QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MODELS STILL
SHOWING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MOST INDICATING QPF OF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. DRYING WILL BEGIN BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PUSHES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...AROUND 50 CENTRAL...AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX...HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH
INTO THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S AND WARM
TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S
SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS HAVE MADE
SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM FRO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER
NORTHERN MS/AL ON MONDAY...ACROSS NORTHERN GA AND THE SC UPSTATE
MONDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE RUN TO RUN
CHANGES THE MODELS HAVE MADE. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND
KEEP ANY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN MIDLANDS. AS SUCH HAVE REMAINED WITH HIGH CHANCE
AND LIKELY POPS...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED AS
MODEL CONSISTENCY INCREASES. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL
AGAIN BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THEN WARM
EACH TO BECOMING NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS BASES AROUND 6000 FEET INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
GUIDANCE KEEPS CIGS VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THEN INDICATING
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR 12Z-15Z AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES MORE SATURATED.
WE FORECASTED MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS AT CAE/CUB.

CAN NOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY MORNING AT TAF SITES...
ESPECIALLY KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL SITES.
HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS. SHOULD SEE A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEARING
SKIES AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 120230
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
930 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL TRANSLATE EAST ALONG
A WEST-EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT AND REDEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY MORNING. GOES-EAST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO QUICKLY FILL IN AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT INTENSIFIES
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE
STRENGTHEN OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
KEEP A VERY DRY 5000 FT SUB-CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS HOLDING IN EXCESS OF 50
MB ALONG THE 285-295K SURFACES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS AS VIRGA AND THUS NON-MEASURABLE.

PINNING DOWN OVERNIGHT LOWS IS PROVING EXTREMELY TRICKY AS STRONG
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING WITHIN A LIGHT
WIND/CLEAR SKY REGIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OFF AND
POSSIBLY RISE IN SOME AREAS SOON AS CLOUD EXPAND AND THICKEN. HAVE
ALREADY OBSERVED STATIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA EXHIBIT AS
MUCH AS A 3-5 DEG RISE AS CLOUDS FORM. THE UPDATED LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SHOWS LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS
OF DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF
LIBERTY...LONG AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOW TEMPERATURE AND HOURLY TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS AS ANY CHANGE IN THE TIMING AND/OR EXTENT OF THE
EXPECTED CLOUD CANOPY WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE BISECTED BY A WEST TO EAST COLD
FRONT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT JUST OFF THE SC
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN SC AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
TIGHTENS UP AND THE LOW STRENGTHENS. WE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER OUR SC AND FAR EASTERN GA ZONES DURING FRIDAY
DAYTIME. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY WITH UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH TO UPPER 40S FAR NORTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING NNE WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL ONLY SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW/MID 40S.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN
THE LONG TERM WHICH IS A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INLAND THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS
THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
CEILINGS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND THEN LOWERING BY LATE EVENING.
CURRENT DATA SUPPORT CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY...WHILE AT KSAV MVFR CIGS LOOK TO SETTLE IN BY 09Z
TONIGHT. ATTM THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS LOOK TO OCCUR AT
KSAV FRIDAY MORNING...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW THIS FAR OUT
TO JUSTIFY AN INCLUSION. WILL LIMIT CIGS TO BKN012 WITH SCT008 TO
TREND. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR KCHS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT NO MEANINGFUL VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. VFR WILL RETURN TO BOTH TERMINALS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
SAVANNAH RIVER WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS FROM THE WEST BY
DAWN. MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BACK TO MORE
EASTERLY ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WATERS EXCEPT
CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR
25 KT TOWARD THE GULF STREAM LATE BUT DO NOT EXPECT AN ADVISORY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS TO BUILD A BIT...UP TO 4 FT NEAR
THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS WITHIN 20 NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MARINE AREA DUE TO LOW-LEVEL JETTING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN 8 TO 10 HOUR WINDOW OF 25 KT GUSTS IS
EXPECTED OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SO WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT ZONE DURING FRIDAY DAYTIME.

ONCE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MONDAY
WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCAE 120032
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
732 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY THEN MOVE
FARTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY
FRIDAY WHILE DEEPENING. MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN DRY AS WELL AS MOST
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR DAYBREAK. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING WILL FILL IN WITH LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 8 MPH TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT SUNRISE WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. USING THE TOP DOWN
METHOD...MODELS DO BRING IN A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW/ICE
PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 17Z. THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...WITH
POPS OF ONLY 20-30 PERCENT...AND EVEN IF THE PRECIP DOES FALL THE
QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MODELS STILL
SHOWING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MOST INDICATING QPF OF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. DRYING WILL BEGIN BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PUSHES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...AROUND 50 CENTRAL...AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX...HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH
INTO THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S AND WARM
TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S
SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS HAVE MADE
SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM FRO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER
NORTHERN MS/AL ON MONDAY...ACROSS NORTHERN GA AND THE SC UPSTATE
MONDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE RUN TO RUN
CHANGES THE MODELS HAVE MADE. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND
KEEP ANY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN MIDLANDS. AS SUCH HAVE REMAINED WITH HIGH CHANCE
AND LIKELY POPS...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED AS
MODEL CONSISTENCY INCREASES. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL
AGAIN BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THEN WARM
EACH TO BECOMING NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH 12Z. SMOKE AFFECTING KAGS/KDNL WITH VSBYS
AROUND 5SM THIS EVENING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEVELOPS. THE GUIDANCE KEEPS
CEILINGS VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THEN INDICATING CIGS LOWERING
TO MVFR AFTER 12Z AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES MORE SATURATED. WE
FORECASTED MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS AT CAE/CUB.

CAN NOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY MORNING AT TAF SITES...
ESPECIALLY KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL SITES.
HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS. SHOULD SEE A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEARING
SKIES AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 120032
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
732 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY THEN MOVE
FARTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY
FRIDAY WHILE DEEPENING. MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN DRY AS WELL AS MOST
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR DAYBREAK. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING WILL FILL IN WITH LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 8 MPH TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT SUNRISE WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. USING THE TOP DOWN
METHOD...MODELS DO BRING IN A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW/ICE
PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 17Z. THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...WITH
POPS OF ONLY 20-30 PERCENT...AND EVEN IF THE PRECIP DOES FALL THE
QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MODELS STILL
SHOWING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MOST INDICATING QPF OF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. DRYING WILL BEGIN BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PUSHES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...AROUND 50 CENTRAL...AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX...HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH
INTO THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S AND WARM
TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S
SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS HAVE MADE
SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM FRO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER
NORTHERN MS/AL ON MONDAY...ACROSS NORTHERN GA AND THE SC UPSTATE
MONDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE RUN TO RUN
CHANGES THE MODELS HAVE MADE. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND
KEEP ANY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN MIDLANDS. AS SUCH HAVE REMAINED WITH HIGH CHANCE
AND LIKELY POPS...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED AS
MODEL CONSISTENCY INCREASES. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL
AGAIN BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THEN WARM
EACH TO BECOMING NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH 12Z. SMOKE AFFECTING KAGS/KDNL WITH VSBYS
AROUND 5SM THIS EVENING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEVELOPS. THE GUIDANCE KEEPS
CEILINGS VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THEN INDICATING CIGS LOWERING
TO MVFR AFTER 12Z AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES MORE SATURATED. WE
FORECASTED MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS AT CAE/CUB.

CAN NOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY MORNING AT TAF SITES...
ESPECIALLY KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL SITES.
HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS. SHOULD SEE A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEARING
SKIES AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 120032
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
732 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY THEN MOVE
FARTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY
FRIDAY WHILE DEEPENING. MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN DRY AS WELL AS MOST
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR DAYBREAK. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING WILL FILL IN WITH LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 8 MPH TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT SUNRISE WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. USING THE TOP DOWN
METHOD...MODELS DO BRING IN A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW/ICE
PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 17Z. THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...WITH
POPS OF ONLY 20-30 PERCENT...AND EVEN IF THE PRECIP DOES FALL THE
QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MODELS STILL
SHOWING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MOST INDICATING QPF OF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. DRYING WILL BEGIN BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PUSHES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...AROUND 50 CENTRAL...AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX...HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH
INTO THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S AND WARM
TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S
SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS HAVE MADE
SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM FRO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER
NORTHERN MS/AL ON MONDAY...ACROSS NORTHERN GA AND THE SC UPSTATE
MONDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE RUN TO RUN
CHANGES THE MODELS HAVE MADE. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND
KEEP ANY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN MIDLANDS. AS SUCH HAVE REMAINED WITH HIGH CHANCE
AND LIKELY POPS...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED AS
MODEL CONSISTENCY INCREASES. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL
AGAIN BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THEN WARM
EACH TO BECOMING NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH 12Z. SMOKE AFFECTING KAGS/KDNL WITH VSBYS
AROUND 5SM THIS EVENING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEVELOPS. THE GUIDANCE KEEPS
CEILINGS VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THEN INDICATING CIGS LOWERING
TO MVFR AFTER 12Z AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES MORE SATURATED. WE
FORECASTED MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS AT CAE/CUB.

CAN NOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY MORNING AT TAF SITES...
ESPECIALLY KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL SITES.
HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS. SHOULD SEE A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEARING
SKIES AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 120029
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
729 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE
FAST UPPER FLOW THAT COULD CAUSED SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINS COUNTIES. FLURRIES MEAN LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
THE DISTURBANCE IS FAST MOVING AND THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR FLURRIES
IS ABOUT 09-15Z.

OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND DECREASE LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE GRADIENT FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID U.S. MOVES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT AT CSG AND MCN
AND 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT ATL AND AHN. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 4-9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AT
CSG/MCN AND NEAR TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT ATL/AHN.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

BDL

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUR COLD AND DRY AS A COLD DOME OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION ON
SATURDAY AND DRIFTS EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND SEA BOARD BY LATE
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY EVENING AND ESTABLISH A STRONG WEDGE OF COLD AIR
NOSING INTO NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GA BY SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY
MORNING. AT THIS SAME TIME... MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE KICKING EAST OF THE PLAINS AND SPREADING
GULF MOISTURE OVER THE COLD WEDGE NEAR THE SURFACE... AND SETTING
THE STAGE FOR WINTRY PRECIP EVENT THAT BEGINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WINTRY PRECIP AMOUNTS... THE SCENARIO DOES
SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN... SNOW... SLEET AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF CENTRAL
GA FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING.

ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST
AND UPDATES FOR THIS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WINTRY WEATHER EVENT
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

39

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. HAVE ADDED A FEW FLURRIES TO TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE MONDAY/TUESDAY SYSTEM.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FLURRIES. H5 TROUGH SHIFTS
RAPIDLY EAST PUTTING THE CWA IN A DRY AND WESTNORTHWEST FLOW WITH
A RAPID REBOUND IN AFTERNOON TEMPS BY MID WEEK WITH TEMPS GOING
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO START THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUE OVER TO ALMOST DUE EAST BY 14-15Z. THE WIND ARE EXPECTED
TO GO BACK TO THE NW BY 18Z AND TO THE WEST BY 21Z. WINDS SPEEDS
WILL STAY 10KT OR LESS THROUGH 18Z FRI THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD TO 12KT GUSTING TO 22KT. WILL SEE SOME
CLOUDS MOVE IN OVER NIGHT WITH BKN030 EXPECTED JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. WILL SEE SOME BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
13Z-17Z BUT THINGS SHOULD GET BACK UP TO VFR READING BY 18Z.  NO
PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  53  28  43 /   5  10   0   0
ATLANTA         35  56  29  40 /   5   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     27  47  21  31 /  10  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    29  54  26  37 /   5   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        40  64  35  47 /   5   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     31  50  27  37 /   5  10   0   0
MACON           38  63  33  47 /   5   5   0   0
ROME            29  55  26  37 /   5   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  32  59  29  41 /   5   5   0   0
VIDALIA         43  65  38  51 /   5  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 120029
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
729 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE
FAST UPPER FLOW THAT COULD CAUSED SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINS COUNTIES. FLURRIES MEAN LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
THE DISTURBANCE IS FAST MOVING AND THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR FLURRIES
IS ABOUT 09-15Z.

OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND DECREASE LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE GRADIENT FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID U.S. MOVES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT AT CSG AND MCN
AND 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT ATL AND AHN. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 4-9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AT
CSG/MCN AND NEAR TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT ATL/AHN.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

BDL

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUR COLD AND DRY AS A COLD DOME OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION ON
SATURDAY AND DRIFTS EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND SEA BOARD BY LATE
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY EVENING AND ESTABLISH A STRONG WEDGE OF COLD AIR
NOSING INTO NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GA BY SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY
MORNING. AT THIS SAME TIME... MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE KICKING EAST OF THE PLAINS AND SPREADING
GULF MOISTURE OVER THE COLD WEDGE NEAR THE SURFACE... AND SETTING
THE STAGE FOR WINTRY PRECIP EVENT THAT BEGINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WINTRY PRECIP AMOUNTS... THE SCENARIO DOES
SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN... SNOW... SLEET AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF CENTRAL
GA FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING.

ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST
AND UPDATES FOR THIS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WINTRY WEATHER EVENT
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

39

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. HAVE ADDED A FEW FLURRIES TO TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE MONDAY/TUESDAY SYSTEM.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FLURRIES. H5 TROUGH SHIFTS
RAPIDLY EAST PUTTING THE CWA IN A DRY AND WESTNORTHWEST FLOW WITH
A RAPID REBOUND IN AFTERNOON TEMPS BY MID WEEK WITH TEMPS GOING
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO START THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUE OVER TO ALMOST DUE EAST BY 14-15Z. THE WIND ARE EXPECTED
TO GO BACK TO THE NW BY 18Z AND TO THE WEST BY 21Z. WINDS SPEEDS
WILL STAY 10KT OR LESS THROUGH 18Z FRI THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD TO 12KT GUSTING TO 22KT. WILL SEE SOME
CLOUDS MOVE IN OVER NIGHT WITH BKN030 EXPECTED JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. WILL SEE SOME BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
13Z-17Z BUT THINGS SHOULD GET BACK UP TO VFR READING BY 18Z.  NO
PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  53  28  43 /   5  10   0   0
ATLANTA         35  56  29  40 /   5   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     27  47  21  31 /  10  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    29  54  26  37 /   5   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        40  64  35  47 /   5   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     31  50  27  37 /   5  10   0   0
MACON           38  63  33  47 /   5   5   0   0
ROME            29  55  26  37 /   5   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  32  59  29  41 /   5   5   0   0
VIDALIA         43  65  38  51 /   5  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 120029
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
729 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE
FAST UPPER FLOW THAT COULD CAUSED SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINS COUNTIES. FLURRIES MEAN LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
THE DISTURBANCE IS FAST MOVING AND THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR FLURRIES
IS ABOUT 09-15Z.

OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND DECREASE LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE GRADIENT FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID U.S. MOVES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT AT CSG AND MCN
AND 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT ATL AND AHN. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 4-9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AT
CSG/MCN AND NEAR TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT ATL/AHN.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

BDL

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUR COLD AND DRY AS A COLD DOME OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION ON
SATURDAY AND DRIFTS EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND SEA BOARD BY LATE
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY EVENING AND ESTABLISH A STRONG WEDGE OF COLD AIR
NOSING INTO NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GA BY SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY
MORNING. AT THIS SAME TIME... MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE KICKING EAST OF THE PLAINS AND SPREADING
GULF MOISTURE OVER THE COLD WEDGE NEAR THE SURFACE... AND SETTING
THE STAGE FOR WINTRY PRECIP EVENT THAT BEGINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WINTRY PRECIP AMOUNTS... THE SCENARIO DOES
SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN... SNOW... SLEET AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF CENTRAL
GA FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING.

ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST
AND UPDATES FOR THIS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WINTRY WEATHER EVENT
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

39

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. HAVE ADDED A FEW FLURRIES TO TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE MONDAY/TUESDAY SYSTEM.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FLURRIES. H5 TROUGH SHIFTS
RAPIDLY EAST PUTTING THE CWA IN A DRY AND WESTNORTHWEST FLOW WITH
A RAPID REBOUND IN AFTERNOON TEMPS BY MID WEEK WITH TEMPS GOING
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO START THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUE OVER TO ALMOST DUE EAST BY 14-15Z. THE WIND ARE EXPECTED
TO GO BACK TO THE NW BY 18Z AND TO THE WEST BY 21Z. WINDS SPEEDS
WILL STAY 10KT OR LESS THROUGH 18Z FRI THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD TO 12KT GUSTING TO 22KT. WILL SEE SOME
CLOUDS MOVE IN OVER NIGHT WITH BKN030 EXPECTED JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. WILL SEE SOME BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
13Z-17Z BUT THINGS SHOULD GET BACK UP TO VFR READING BY 18Z.  NO
PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  53  28  43 /   5  10   0   0
ATLANTA         35  56  29  40 /   5   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     27  47  21  31 /  10  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    29  54  26  37 /   5   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        40  64  35  47 /   5   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     31  50  27  37 /   5  10   0   0
MACON           38  63  33  47 /   5   5   0   0
ROME            29  55  26  37 /   5   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  32  59  29  41 /   5   5   0   0
VIDALIA         43  65  38  51 /   5  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KCAE 112358
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
658 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY THEN MOVE
FARTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN DRY AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL
ALSO REMAIN DRY. MODELS DO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE GA/SC COAST ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
TOWARDS MORNING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BY
MORNING...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY SUNRISE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD DROP TO
JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. NO PRECIP EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT SUNRISE WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. USING THE TOP DOWN
METHOD...MODELS DO BRING IN A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW/ICE
PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 17Z. THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...WITH
POPS OF ONLY 20-30 PERCENT...AND EVEN IF THE PRECIP DOES FALL THE
QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MODELS STILL
SHOWING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MOST INDICATING QPF OF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. DRYING WILL BEGIN BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PUSHES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...AROUND 50 CENTRAL...AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX...HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH
INTO THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S AND WARM
TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S
SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS HAVE MADE
SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM FRO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER
NORTHERN MS/AL ON MONDAY...ACROSS NORTHERN GA AND THE SC UPSTATE
MONDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE RUN TO RUN
CHANGES THE MODELS HAVE MADE. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND
KEEP ANY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN MIDLANDS. AS SUCH HAVE REMAINED WITH HIGH CHANCE
AND LIKELY POPS...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED AS
MODEL CONSISTENCY INCREASES. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL
AGAIN BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THEN WARM
EACH TO BECOMING NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH 12Z. SMOKE AFFECTING KAGS/KDNL WITH VSBYS
AROUND 5SM THIS EVENING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEVELOPS. THE GUIDANCE KEEPS
CEILINGS VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THEN INDICATING CIGS LOWERING
TO MVFR AFTER 12Z AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES MORE SATURATED. WE
FORECASTED MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS AT CAE/CUB.

CAN NOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY MORNING AT TAF SITES...
ESPECIALLY KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL SITES.
HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS. SHOULD SEE A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEARING
SKIES AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 112358
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
658 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY THEN MOVE
FARTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN DRY AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL
ALSO REMAIN DRY. MODELS DO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE GA/SC COAST ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
TOWARDS MORNING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BY
MORNING...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY SUNRISE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD DROP TO
JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. NO PRECIP EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT SUNRISE WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. USING THE TOP DOWN
METHOD...MODELS DO BRING IN A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW/ICE
PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 17Z. THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...WITH
POPS OF ONLY 20-30 PERCENT...AND EVEN IF THE PRECIP DOES FALL THE
QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MODELS STILL
SHOWING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MOST INDICATING QPF OF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. DRYING WILL BEGIN BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PUSHES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...AROUND 50 CENTRAL...AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX...HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH
INTO THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S AND WARM
TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S
SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS HAVE MADE
SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM FRO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER
NORTHERN MS/AL ON MONDAY...ACROSS NORTHERN GA AND THE SC UPSTATE
MONDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE RUN TO RUN
CHANGES THE MODELS HAVE MADE. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND
KEEP ANY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN MIDLANDS. AS SUCH HAVE REMAINED WITH HIGH CHANCE
AND LIKELY POPS...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED AS
MODEL CONSISTENCY INCREASES. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL
AGAIN BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THEN WARM
EACH TO BECOMING NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH 12Z. SMOKE AFFECTING KAGS/KDNL WITH VSBYS
AROUND 5SM THIS EVENING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEVELOPS. THE GUIDANCE KEEPS
CEILINGS VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THEN INDICATING CIGS LOWERING
TO MVFR AFTER 12Z AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES MORE SATURATED. WE
FORECASTED MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS AT CAE/CUB.

CAN NOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY MORNING AT TAF SITES...
ESPECIALLY KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL SITES.
HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS. SHOULD SEE A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEARING
SKIES AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 112358
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
658 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY THEN MOVE
FARTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN DRY AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL
ALSO REMAIN DRY. MODELS DO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE GA/SC COAST ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
TOWARDS MORNING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BY
MORNING...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY SUNRISE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD DROP TO
JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. NO PRECIP EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT SUNRISE WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. USING THE TOP DOWN
METHOD...MODELS DO BRING IN A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW/ICE
PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 17Z. THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...WITH
POPS OF ONLY 20-30 PERCENT...AND EVEN IF THE PRECIP DOES FALL THE
QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MODELS STILL
SHOWING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MOST INDICATING QPF OF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. DRYING WILL BEGIN BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PUSHES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...AROUND 50 CENTRAL...AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX...HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH
INTO THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S AND WARM
TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S
SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS HAVE MADE
SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM FRO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER
NORTHERN MS/AL ON MONDAY...ACROSS NORTHERN GA AND THE SC UPSTATE
MONDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE RUN TO RUN
CHANGES THE MODELS HAVE MADE. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND
KEEP ANY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN MIDLANDS. AS SUCH HAVE REMAINED WITH HIGH CHANCE
AND LIKELY POPS...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED AS
MODEL CONSISTENCY INCREASES. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL
AGAIN BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THEN WARM
EACH TO BECOMING NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH 12Z. SMOKE AFFECTING KAGS/KDNL WITH VSBYS
AROUND 5SM THIS EVENING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEVELOPS. THE GUIDANCE KEEPS
CEILINGS VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THEN INDICATING CIGS LOWERING
TO MVFR AFTER 12Z AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES MORE SATURATED. WE
FORECASTED MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS AT CAE/CUB.

CAN NOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY MORNING AT TAF SITES...
ESPECIALLY KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL SITES.
HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS. SHOULD SEE A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEARING
SKIES AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCHS 112322
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
622 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA WILL TRANSLATE EAST
TONIGHT ALONG A WEST-EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT AND REDEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES THAT ARE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDY SKIES LATER
THIS EVENING AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE STRENGTHEN OF THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP A VERY DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE THAT IS ROUGHLY 5000 FT DEEP WITH
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS HOLDING IN EXCESS OF 50 MB ALONG
THE 290-295K SURFACES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS AS VIRGA AND THUS NON-MEASURABLE...
BUT WILL WATCH THIS CAREFULLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
MENTION OF SPRINKLES FOR SOME AREAS MAY BE CONSIDERED WITH THE
LATE EVENING UPDATE.

PINNING DOWN OVERNIGHT LOWS IS PROVING EXTREMELY TRICKY AS STRONG
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING WITHIN A
LIGHT WIND/CLEAR SKY REGIME BEFORE THE ONSET OF THICKENING CLOUD
COVER. ONCE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY RISE IN SOME AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
OPTED TO NUDGE OVERNIGHT LOWS UP 1-2 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS GIVEN
THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY A
BIG BUST POTENTIAL HERE AS ANY CHANGE IN THE TIMING AND/OR EXTENT
OF THE EXPECTED CLOUD CANOPY WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE BISECTED BY A WEST TO EAST COLD
FRONT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT JUST OFF THE SC
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN SC AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
TIGHTENS UP AND THE LOW STRENGTHENS. WE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER OUR SC AND FAR EASTERN GA ZONES DURING FRIDAY
DAYTIME. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY WITH UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH TO UPPER 40S FAR NORTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING NNE WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL ONLY SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW/MID 40S.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN
THE LONG TERM WHICH IS A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INLAND THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS
THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
CEILINGS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND THEN LOWERING BY LATE EVENING.
CURRENT DATA SUPPORT CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY...WHILE AT KSAV MVFR CIGS LOOK TO SETTLE IN BY 09Z
TONIGHT. ATTM THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS LOOK TO OCCUR AT
KSAV FRIDAY MORNING...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW THIS FAR OUT
TO JUSTIFY AN INCLUSION. WILL LIMIT CIGS TO BKN012 WITH SCT008 TO
TREND. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR KCHS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT NO MEANINGFUL VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. VFR WILL RETURN TO BOTH TERMINALS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
SAVANNAH RIVER WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS FROM THE WEST BY
DAWN. MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BACK TO MORE
EASTERLY ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WATERS EXCEPT
CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR
25 KT TOWARD THE GULF STREAM LATE BUT DO NOT EXPECT AN ADVISORY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS TO BUILD A BIT...UP TO 4 FT NEAR
THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS WITHIN 20 NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MARINE AREA DUE TO LOW-LEVEL JETTING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN 8 TO 10 HOUR WINDOW OF 25 KT GUSTS IS
EXPECTED OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SO WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT ZONE DURING FRIDAY DAYTIME.

ONCE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MONDAY
WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 112322
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
622 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA WILL TRANSLATE EAST
TONIGHT ALONG A WEST-EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT AND REDEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES THAT ARE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDY SKIES LATER
THIS EVENING AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE STRENGTHEN OF THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP A VERY DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE THAT IS ROUGHLY 5000 FT DEEP WITH
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS HOLDING IN EXCESS OF 50 MB ALONG
THE 290-295K SURFACES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS AS VIRGA AND THUS NON-MEASURABLE...
BUT WILL WATCH THIS CAREFULLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
MENTION OF SPRINKLES FOR SOME AREAS MAY BE CONSIDERED WITH THE
LATE EVENING UPDATE.

PINNING DOWN OVERNIGHT LOWS IS PROVING EXTREMELY TRICKY AS STRONG
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING WITHIN A
LIGHT WIND/CLEAR SKY REGIME BEFORE THE ONSET OF THICKENING CLOUD
COVER. ONCE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY RISE IN SOME AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
OPTED TO NUDGE OVERNIGHT LOWS UP 1-2 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS GIVEN
THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY A
BIG BUST POTENTIAL HERE AS ANY CHANGE IN THE TIMING AND/OR EXTENT
OF THE EXPECTED CLOUD CANOPY WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE BISECTED BY A WEST TO EAST COLD
FRONT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT JUST OFF THE SC
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN SC AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
TIGHTENS UP AND THE LOW STRENGTHENS. WE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER OUR SC AND FAR EASTERN GA ZONES DURING FRIDAY
DAYTIME. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY WITH UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH TO UPPER 40S FAR NORTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING NNE WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL ONLY SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW/MID 40S.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN
THE LONG TERM WHICH IS A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INLAND THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS
THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
CEILINGS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND THEN LOWERING BY LATE EVENING.
CURRENT DATA SUPPORT CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY...WHILE AT KSAV MVFR CIGS LOOK TO SETTLE IN BY 09Z
TONIGHT. ATTM THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS LOOK TO OCCUR AT
KSAV FRIDAY MORNING...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW THIS FAR OUT
TO JUSTIFY AN INCLUSION. WILL LIMIT CIGS TO BKN012 WITH SCT008 TO
TREND. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR KCHS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT NO MEANINGFUL VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. VFR WILL RETURN TO BOTH TERMINALS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
SAVANNAH RIVER WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS FROM THE WEST BY
DAWN. MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BACK TO MORE
EASTERLY ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WATERS EXCEPT
CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR
25 KT TOWARD THE GULF STREAM LATE BUT DO NOT EXPECT AN ADVISORY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS TO BUILD A BIT...UP TO 4 FT NEAR
THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS WITHIN 20 NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MARINE AREA DUE TO LOW-LEVEL JETTING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN 8 TO 10 HOUR WINDOW OF 25 KT GUSTS IS
EXPECTED OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SO WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT ZONE DURING FRIDAY DAYTIME.

ONCE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MONDAY
WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCHS 112322
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
622 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA WILL TRANSLATE EAST
TONIGHT ALONG A WEST-EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT AND REDEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES THAT ARE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDY SKIES LATER
THIS EVENING AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE STRENGTHEN OF THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP A VERY DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE THAT IS ROUGHLY 5000 FT DEEP WITH
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS HOLDING IN EXCESS OF 50 MB ALONG
THE 290-295K SURFACES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS AS VIRGA AND THUS NON-MEASURABLE...
BUT WILL WATCH THIS CAREFULLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
MENTION OF SPRINKLES FOR SOME AREAS MAY BE CONSIDERED WITH THE
LATE EVENING UPDATE.

PINNING DOWN OVERNIGHT LOWS IS PROVING EXTREMELY TRICKY AS STRONG
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING WITHIN A
LIGHT WIND/CLEAR SKY REGIME BEFORE THE ONSET OF THICKENING CLOUD
COVER. ONCE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY RISE IN SOME AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
OPTED TO NUDGE OVERNIGHT LOWS UP 1-2 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS GIVEN
THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY A
BIG BUST POTENTIAL HERE AS ANY CHANGE IN THE TIMING AND/OR EXTENT
OF THE EXPECTED CLOUD CANOPY WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE BISECTED BY A WEST TO EAST COLD
FRONT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT JUST OFF THE SC
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN SC AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
TIGHTENS UP AND THE LOW STRENGTHENS. WE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER OUR SC AND FAR EASTERN GA ZONES DURING FRIDAY
DAYTIME. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY WITH UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH TO UPPER 40S FAR NORTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING NNE WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL ONLY SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW/MID 40S.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN
THE LONG TERM WHICH IS A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INLAND THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS
THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
CEILINGS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND THEN LOWERING BY LATE EVENING.
CURRENT DATA SUPPORT CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY...WHILE AT KSAV MVFR CIGS LOOK TO SETTLE IN BY 09Z
TONIGHT. ATTM THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS LOOK TO OCCUR AT
KSAV FRIDAY MORNING...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW THIS FAR OUT
TO JUSTIFY AN INCLUSION. WILL LIMIT CIGS TO BKN012 WITH SCT008 TO
TREND. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR KCHS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT NO MEANINGFUL VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. VFR WILL RETURN TO BOTH TERMINALS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
SAVANNAH RIVER WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS FROM THE WEST BY
DAWN. MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BACK TO MORE
EASTERLY ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WATERS EXCEPT
CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR
25 KT TOWARD THE GULF STREAM LATE BUT DO NOT EXPECT AN ADVISORY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS TO BUILD A BIT...UP TO 4 FT NEAR
THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS WITHIN 20 NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MARINE AREA DUE TO LOW-LEVEL JETTING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN 8 TO 10 HOUR WINDOW OF 25 KT GUSTS IS
EXPECTED OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SO WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT ZONE DURING FRIDAY DAYTIME.

ONCE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MONDAY
WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 112253
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
553 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY THEN MOVE
FARTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN DRY AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL
ALSO REMAIN DRY. MODELS DO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE GA/SC COAST ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
TOWARDS MORNING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BY
MORNING...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY SUNRISE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD DROP TO
JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. NO PRECIP EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT SUNRISE WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. USING THE TOP DOWN
METHOD...MODELS DO BRING IN A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW/ICE
PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 17Z. THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...WITH
POPS OF ONLY 20-30 PERCENT...AND EVEN IF THE PRECIP DOES FALL THE
QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MODELS STILL
SHOWING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MOST INDICATING QPF OF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. DRYING WILL BEGIN BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PUSHES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...AROUND 50 CENTRAL...AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX...HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH
INTO THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S AND WARM
TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S
SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS HAVE MADE
SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM FRO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER
NORTHERN MS/AL ON MONDAY...ACROSS NORTHERN GA AND THE SC UPSTATE
MONDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE RUN TO RUN
CHANGES THE MODELS HAVE MADE. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND
KEEP ANY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN MIDLANDS. AS SUCH HAVE REMAINED WITH HIGH CHANCE
AND LIKELY POPS...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED AS
MODEL CONSISTENCY INCREASES. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL
AGAIN BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THEN WARM
EACH TO BECOMING NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SMOKE AFFECTING KAGS WITH VSBYS 3SM TO 5SM THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA COAST.

CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEVELOPS.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS CEILINGS VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE
LEANED THAT DIRECTION WITH LATEST TAFS. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT A PERIOD OF UPPER END MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AT
KOGB DURING THE LATE MORNING FRIDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A LIGHT
SPRINKLE AT SOME POINT FRIDAY MORNING AT TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY AT
KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL SITES. HAVE NOT
MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 112107
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
407 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY THEN MOVE
FARTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY. MODELS
DO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GA/SC COAST
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARDS MORNING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BY MORNING...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY SUNRISE. CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...AND SHOULD DROP TO JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF. NO PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT SUNRISE WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. USING THE TOP DOWN
METHOD...MODELS DO BRING IN A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW/ICE
PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 17Z. THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...WITH
POPS OF ONLY 20-30 PERCENT...AND EVEN IF THE PRECIP DOES FALL THE
QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MODELS STILL
SHOWING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MOST INDICATING QPF OF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. DRYING WILL BEGIN BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PUSHES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...AROUND 50 CENTRAL...AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX...HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH
INTO THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S AND WARM
TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S
SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS HAVE MADE
SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM FRO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER
NORTHERN MS/AL ON MONDAY...ACROSS NORTHERN GA AND THE SC UPSTATE
MONDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE RUN TO RUN
CHANGES THE MODELS HAVE MADE. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND
KEEP ANY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN MIDLANDS. AS SUCH HAVE REMAINED WITH HIGH CHANCE
AND LIKELY POPS...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED AS
MODEL CONSISTENCY INCREASES. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL
AGAIN BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THEN WARM
EACH TO BECOMING NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SMOKE AFFECTING KAGS WITH VSBYS 3SM TO 5SM THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA COAST.

CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEVELOPS.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS CEILINGS VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE
LEANED THAT DIRECTION WITH LATEST TAFS. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT A PERIOD OF UPPER END MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AT
KOGB DURING THE LATE MORNING FRIDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A LIGHT
SPRINKLE AT SOME POINT FRIDAY MORNING AT TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY AT
KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL SITES. HAVE NOT
MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 112059
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
359 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS AL/MS IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT RUNS THROUGH SOUTHEAST
GA AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO THE TN
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES...WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING TOWARD DAYBREAK. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT WE THINK MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH MEASURABLE RAIN UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AS MUCH DEPENDS ON THE CLOUD COVER BUT
THINK THAT TEMPS WILL FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SC WHERE THE AIR MASS IS DRIER. THEN TEMPERATURES COULD
STABILIZE OR EVEN RISE A BIT...MAINLY IN COASTAL AREAS AND ACROSS
GA...AS CLOUDS THICKEN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
INTERIOR SC WITH LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT MID 40S GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE BISECTED BY A WEST TO EAST COLD
FRONT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT JUST OFF THE SC
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN SC AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
TIGHTENS UP AND THE LOW STRENGTHENS. WE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER OUR SC AND FAR EASTERN GA ZONES DURING FRIDAY
DAYTIME. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY WITH UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH TO UPPER 40S FAR NORTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING NNE WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL ONLY SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW/MID 40S.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN
THE LONG TERM WHICH IS A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INLAND THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS
THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH ABOUT 09Z FRIDAY BEFORE VFR CIGS LOWER TO
AT LEAST MVFR BY ABOUT 10Z AT KSAV AND BY ABOUT 12Z AT KCHS. CIGS
WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY REACH IFR/LIFR LEVELS. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME LIGHT RAIN BUT DUE TO LOW CHANCES/IMPACTS WE ARE NOT
INCLUDING IN THE TAFS YET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
SAVANNAH RIVER WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS FROM THE WEST BY
DAWN. MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BACK TO MORE
EASTERLY ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WATERS EXCEPT
CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR
25 KT TOWARD THE GULF STREAM LATE BUT DO NOT EXPECT AN ADVISORY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS TO BUILD A BIT...UP TO 4 FT NEAR
THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS WITHIN 20 NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MARINE AREA DUE TO LOW-LEVEL JETTING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN 8 TO 10 HOUR WINDOW OF 25 KT GUSTS IS
EXPECTED OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SO WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT ZONE DURING FRIDAY DAYTIME.

ONCE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MONDAY
WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 112059
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
359 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS AL/MS IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT RUNS THROUGH SOUTHEAST
GA AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO THE TN
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES...WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING TOWARD DAYBREAK. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT WE THINK MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH MEASURABLE RAIN UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AS MUCH DEPENDS ON THE CLOUD COVER BUT
THINK THAT TEMPS WILL FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SC WHERE THE AIR MASS IS DRIER. THEN TEMPERATURES COULD
STABILIZE OR EVEN RISE A BIT...MAINLY IN COASTAL AREAS AND ACROSS
GA...AS CLOUDS THICKEN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
INTERIOR SC WITH LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT MID 40S GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE BISECTED BY A WEST TO EAST COLD
FRONT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT JUST OFF THE SC
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN SC AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
TIGHTENS UP AND THE LOW STRENGTHENS. WE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER OUR SC AND FAR EASTERN GA ZONES DURING FRIDAY
DAYTIME. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY WITH UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH TO UPPER 40S FAR NORTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING NNE WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL ONLY SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW/MID 40S.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN
THE LONG TERM WHICH IS A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INLAND THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS
THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH ABOUT 09Z FRIDAY BEFORE VFR CIGS LOWER TO
AT LEAST MVFR BY ABOUT 10Z AT KSAV AND BY ABOUT 12Z AT KCHS. CIGS
WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY REACH IFR/LIFR LEVELS. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME LIGHT RAIN BUT DUE TO LOW CHANCES/IMPACTS WE ARE NOT
INCLUDING IN THE TAFS YET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
SAVANNAH RIVER WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS FROM THE WEST BY
DAWN. MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BACK TO MORE
EASTERLY ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WATERS EXCEPT
CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR
25 KT TOWARD THE GULF STREAM LATE BUT DO NOT EXPECT AN ADVISORY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS TO BUILD A BIT...UP TO 4 FT NEAR
THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS WITHIN 20 NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MARINE AREA DUE TO LOW-LEVEL JETTING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN 8 TO 10 HOUR WINDOW OF 25 KT GUSTS IS
EXPECTED OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SO WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT ZONE DURING FRIDAY DAYTIME.

ONCE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MONDAY
WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 112059
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
359 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS AL/MS IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT RUNS THROUGH SOUTHEAST
GA AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO THE TN
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES...WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING TOWARD DAYBREAK. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT WE THINK MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH MEASURABLE RAIN UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AS MUCH DEPENDS ON THE CLOUD COVER BUT
THINK THAT TEMPS WILL FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SC WHERE THE AIR MASS IS DRIER. THEN TEMPERATURES COULD
STABILIZE OR EVEN RISE A BIT...MAINLY IN COASTAL AREAS AND ACROSS
GA...AS CLOUDS THICKEN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
INTERIOR SC WITH LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT MID 40S GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE BISECTED BY A WEST TO EAST COLD
FRONT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT JUST OFF THE SC
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN SC AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
TIGHTENS UP AND THE LOW STRENGTHENS. WE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER OUR SC AND FAR EASTERN GA ZONES DURING FRIDAY
DAYTIME. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY WITH UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH TO UPPER 40S FAR NORTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING NNE WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL ONLY SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW/MID 40S.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN
THE LONG TERM WHICH IS A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INLAND THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS
THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH ABOUT 09Z FRIDAY BEFORE VFR CIGS LOWER TO
AT LEAST MVFR BY ABOUT 10Z AT KSAV AND BY ABOUT 12Z AT KCHS. CIGS
WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY REACH IFR/LIFR LEVELS. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME LIGHT RAIN BUT DUE TO LOW CHANCES/IMPACTS WE ARE NOT
INCLUDING IN THE TAFS YET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
SAVANNAH RIVER WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS FROM THE WEST BY
DAWN. MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BACK TO MORE
EASTERLY ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WATERS EXCEPT
CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR
25 KT TOWARD THE GULF STREAM LATE BUT DO NOT EXPECT AN ADVISORY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS TO BUILD A BIT...UP TO 4 FT NEAR
THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS WITHIN 20 NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MARINE AREA DUE TO LOW-LEVEL JETTING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN 8 TO 10 HOUR WINDOW OF 25 KT GUSTS IS
EXPECTED OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SO WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT ZONE DURING FRIDAY DAYTIME.

ONCE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MONDAY
WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB



000
FXUS62 KCAE 111949
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
249 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY AND FARTHER
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY.
MODELS DO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GA/SC
COAST ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARDS MORNING. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BY MORNING...BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY SUNRISE.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD DROP TO JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF. NO PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT SUNRISE WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. USING THE TOP DOWN
METHOD...MODELS DO BRING IN A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW/ICE
PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 17Z. THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...WITH
POPS OF ONLY 20-30 PERCENT...AND EVEN IF THE PRECIP DOES FALL THE
QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MODELS STILL
SHOWING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MOST INDICATING QPF OF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. DRYING WILL BEGIN BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PUSHES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...AROUND 50 CENTRAL...AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX...HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH
INTO THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S AND WARM
TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S
SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS HAVE MADE
SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM FRO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER
NORTHERN MS/AL ON MONDAY...ACROSS NORTHERN GA AND THE SC UPSTATE
MONDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE RUN TO RUN
CHANGES THE MODELS HAVE MADE. WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND
KEEP ANY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN MIDLANDS. AS SUCH HAVE REMAINED WITH HIGH CHANCE
AND LIKELY POPS...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED AS
MODEL CONSISTENCY INCREASES. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL
AGAIN BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THEN WARM
EACH TO BECOMING NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNSET. LATER TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA COAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY...REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS...BUT MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS CEILINGS VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HAVE LEANED THAT DIRECTION WITH LATEST TAFS. THE REMAINS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A PERIOD OF UPPER END MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP
AT KOGB DURING THE LATE MORNING FRIDAY.  CAN NOT RULE OUT A LIGHT
SPRINKLE AT SOME POINT FRIDAY MORNING AT TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY AT
KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL SITES. HAVE NOT
MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 111949
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
249 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE
FAST UPPER FLOW THAT COULD CAUSED SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINS COUNTIES. FLURRIES MEAN LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
THE DISTURBANCE IS FAST MOVING AND THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR FLURRIES
IS ABOUT 09-15Z.

OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND DECREASE LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE GRADIENT FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID U.S. MOVES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT AT CSG AND MCN
AND 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT ATL AND AHN. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 4-9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AT
CSG/MCN AND NEAR TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT ATL/AHN.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

BDL


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUR COLD AND DRY AS A COLD DOME OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION ON
SATURDAY AND DRIFTS EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND SEA BOARD BY LATE
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY EVENING AND ESTABLISH A STRONG WEDGE OF COLD AIR
NOSING INTO NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GA BY SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY
MORNING. AT THIS SAME TIME... MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE KICKING EAST OF THE PLAINS AND SPREADING
GULF MOISTURE OVER THE COLD WEDGE NEAR THE SURFACE... AND SETTING
THE STAGE FOR WINTRY PRECIP EVENT THAT BEGINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND WINTRY PRECIP AMOUNTS... THE SCENARIO DOES
SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN... SNOW... SLEET AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF CENTRAL
GA FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING.

ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST
AND UPDATES FOR THIS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WINTRY WEATHER EVENT
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

39

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. HAVE ADDED A FEW FLURRIES TO TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE MONDAY/TUESDAY SYSTEM.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FLURRIES. H5 TROUGH SHIFTS
RAPIDLY EAST PUTTING THE CWA IN A DRY AND WESTNORTHWEST FLOW WITH
A RAPID REBOUND IN AFTERNOON TEMPS BY MID WEEK WITH TEMPS GOING
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH NOT MANY CLOUDS TO START. THE PROBLEM THEN
BECOMES THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT RANGING 2500 TO 4000 FT. SURFACE WINDS MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING AND HEIGHT OF CEILINGS.
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR WIND DIRECTION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VSBYS AND WIND SPEEDS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  53  28  43 /   5  10   0   0
ATLANTA         35  56  29  40 /   5   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     27  47  21  31 /  10  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    29  54  26  37 /   5   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        40  64  35  47 /   5   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     31  50  27  37 /   5  10   0   0
MACON           38  63  33  47 /   5   5   0   0
ROME            29  55  26  37 /   5   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  32  59  29  41 /   5   5   0   0
VIDALIA         43  65  38  51 /   5  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...BDL




000
FXUS62 KCAE 111848
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
148 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY AND FARTHER
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY.
MODELS DO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GA/SC
COAST ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARDS MORNING. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BY MORNING...BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY SUNRISE.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD DROP TO JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF. NO PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT SUNRISE WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. USING THE TOP DOWN
METHOD...MODELS DO BRING IN A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW/ICE
PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 17Z. THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...WITH
POPS OF ONLY 20-30 PERCENT...AND EVEN IF THE PRECIP DOES FALL THE
QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MODELS STILL
SHOWING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MOST INDICATING QPF OF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. DRYING WILL BEGIN BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PUSHES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...AROUND 50 CENTRAL...AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL
TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION. IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...30 TO 70
PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNSET. LATER TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA COAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY...REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS...BUT MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS CEILINGS VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HAVE LEANED THAT DIRECTION WITH LATEST TAFS. THE REMAINS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A PERIOD OF UPPER END MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP
AT KOGB DURING THE LATE MORNING FRIDAY.  CAN NOT RULE OUT A LIGHT
SPRINKLE AT SOME POINT FRIDAY MORNING AT TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY AT
KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL SITES. HAVE NOT
MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 111848
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
148 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY AND FARTHER
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY.
MODELS DO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GA/SC
COAST ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARDS MORNING. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BY MORNING...BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY SUNRISE.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD DROP TO JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF. NO PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT SUNRISE WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. USING THE TOP DOWN
METHOD...MODELS DO BRING IN A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW/ICE
PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 17Z. THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...WITH
POPS OF ONLY 20-30 PERCENT...AND EVEN IF THE PRECIP DOES FALL THE
QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MODELS STILL
SHOWING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MOST INDICATING QPF OF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. DRYING WILL BEGIN BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PUSHES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...AROUND 50 CENTRAL...AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL
TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION. IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...30 TO 70
PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNSET. LATER TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA COAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY...REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS...BUT MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS CEILINGS VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HAVE LEANED THAT DIRECTION WITH LATEST TAFS. THE REMAINS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A PERIOD OF UPPER END MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP
AT KOGB DURING THE LATE MORNING FRIDAY.  CAN NOT RULE OUT A LIGHT
SPRINKLE AT SOME POINT FRIDAY MORNING AT TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY AT
KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL SITES. HAVE NOT
MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 111848
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
148 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY AND FARTHER
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY.
MODELS DO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GA/SC
COAST ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARDS MORNING. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BY MORNING...BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY SUNRISE.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD DROP TO JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF. NO PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT SUNRISE WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. USING THE TOP DOWN
METHOD...MODELS DO BRING IN A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW/ICE
PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 17Z. THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...WITH
POPS OF ONLY 20-30 PERCENT...AND EVEN IF THE PRECIP DOES FALL THE
QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MODELS STILL
SHOWING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MOST INDICATING QPF OF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. DRYING WILL BEGIN BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PUSHES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...AROUND 50 CENTRAL...AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL
TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION. IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...30 TO 70
PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNSET. LATER TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA COAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY...REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS...BUT MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS CEILINGS VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HAVE LEANED THAT DIRECTION WITH LATEST TAFS. THE REMAINS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A PERIOD OF UPPER END MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP
AT KOGB DURING THE LATE MORNING FRIDAY.  CAN NOT RULE OUT A LIGHT
SPRINKLE AT SOME POINT FRIDAY MORNING AT TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY AT
KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL SITES. HAVE NOT
MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 111848
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
148 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY AND FARTHER
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY.
MODELS DO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GA/SC
COAST ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARDS MORNING. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BY MORNING...BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY SUNRISE.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD DROP TO JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF. NO PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT SUNRISE WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. USING THE TOP DOWN
METHOD...MODELS DO BRING IN A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW/ICE
PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 17Z. THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...WITH
POPS OF ONLY 20-30 PERCENT...AND EVEN IF THE PRECIP DOES FALL THE
QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MODELS STILL
SHOWING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MOST INDICATING QPF OF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. DRYING WILL BEGIN BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PUSHES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...AROUND 50 CENTRAL...AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL
TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION. IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...30 TO 70
PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNSET. LATER TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA COAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY...REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS...BUT MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS CEILINGS VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HAVE LEANED THAT DIRECTION WITH LATEST TAFS. THE REMAINS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A PERIOD OF UPPER END MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP
AT KOGB DURING THE LATE MORNING FRIDAY.  CAN NOT RULE OUT A LIGHT
SPRINKLE AT SOME POINT FRIDAY MORNING AT TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY AT
KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL SITES. HAVE NOT
MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 111848
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
148 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY AND FARTHER
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY.
MODELS DO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GA/SC
COAST ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARDS MORNING. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BY MORNING...BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY SUNRISE.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD DROP TO JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF. NO PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT SUNRISE WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. USING THE TOP DOWN
METHOD...MODELS DO BRING IN A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW/ICE
PELLETS/FREEZING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 17Z. THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...WITH
POPS OF ONLY 20-30 PERCENT...AND EVEN IF THE PRECIP DOES FALL THE
QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MODELS STILL
SHOWING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...WITH MOST INDICATING QPF OF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. DRYING WILL BEGIN BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PUSHES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S
NORTH...AROUND 50 CENTRAL...AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL
TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION. IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...30 TO 70
PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNSET. LATER TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SC/GA COAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY...REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS...BUT MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS CEILINGS VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HAVE LEANED THAT DIRECTION WITH LATEST TAFS. THE REMAINS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A PERIOD OF UPPER END MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP
AT KOGB DURING THE LATE MORNING FRIDAY.  CAN NOT RULE OUT A LIGHT
SPRINKLE AT SOME POINT FRIDAY MORNING AT TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY AT
KOGB...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF ALL SITES. HAVE NOT
MENTIONED ANY PRECIP WITH LATEST TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 111829
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
129 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE...ALTHOUGH WE DID RAISE HIGH TEMPS A TAD FOR MOST AREAS WITH
LOWER 60S NOW EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-16. PROBABLY SEEING SOME
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS LATE. LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NEAR THE
SANTEE RIVER TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. LIGHT WEST
WINDS EARLY WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SPUR A
SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES THAT WILL TRAVERSE A POORLY DEFINED
BAROCLINIC REGION ACROSS THE SE STATES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
BELOW 10K FT RESULTING IN AN EXPANSION OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BUT WITH 00Z MODELS PAINTING HIGH 850 MB TO 500
MB CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS...WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES LATE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS SHOULD SPELL OUT A
MILDER OVERNIGHT...TEMPS THIS EVENING MAY BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
WHAT TIME CLOUDS INCREASE. WE GRADUATED LOWS FROM THE MID 30S N TO
THE LOWER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT. THE MORNING WILL START OFF WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED JUST OFF THE COAST AND POISED TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE CLEARING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ALMOST ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL STAY JUST OFFSHORE...THOUGH THERE IS
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF IN THE MORNING. THE FORECAST MAINTAINS THE FEW
HOURS OF SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS EASTERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON
COUNTIES...BUT LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS ERODE AND
INSOLATION CAN BEGIN. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON IN THE EAST THE
LONGEST SO WE MAY END UP WITH QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. THE
FORECAST FEATURES HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE ALTAMAHA TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND...WITH LOW 40S AT THE
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BE DEFINED BY A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
A VERY COLD WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
LOW 20S IN MANY AREAS...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S COMMON. WITH ELEVATED
WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO AT LEAST THE
LOW TO MID TEENS NORTH OF I-16 WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FURTHER
SOUTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FINALLY FOR SUNDAY...HIGHS
WILL BE 20 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40 AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA...WITH MID 40S AROUND
SAVANNAH AND POINTS SOUTH.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST IN THE LONG
TERM WHICH IS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A SHARPENING COASTAL
TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD
FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT
SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE
WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH ABOUT 09Z FRIDAY BEFORE VFR CIGS LOWER TO
AT LEAST MVFR BY ABOUT 10Z AT KSAV AND BY ABOUT 12Z AT KCHS. CIGS
WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY REACH IFR/LIFR LEVELS. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME LIGHT RAIN BUT DUE TO LOW CHANCES/IMPACTS WE ARE NOT
INCLUDING IN THE TAFS YET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE WATERS RELAXING THE PRES GRADIENTS. W FLOW
WILL FALL BELOW 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING THEN THE FLOW SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2 FT
OR LESS OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEAK LOW PRES WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS BY DAWN ON FRIDAY...THE
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND CHAOTIC AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RE-ESTABLISH A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL INVERSION TONIGHT BUT AN INCREASING SW JET
OVER WARMER OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM SHOULD
INCITE AN UPTICK IN SW FLOW BEYOND 40 NM OFFSHORE BUT WINDS AND
SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY AND COULD LEAD TO A SHORT PERIOD OF
NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE
SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE INTO MONDAY WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND
EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH




000
FXUS62 KFFC 111710 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1210 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING NEAR NORMAL AT CSG TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT AHN.

BDL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LIGHT FLURRY ACTIVITY WE SAW OVERNIGHT IN THE
FAR NORTH HAS DISSIPATED. ITS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A FEW FLAKES WILL
FLY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THROUGH OR A LITTLE PAST DAYBREAK...
BUT I DO NOT ANTICIPATE ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE MENTION OF FLURRIES IN
THIS NEW FORECAST PACKAGE.

AFTER ONE LAST BITTER COLD NIGHT...WE WARM UP NICELY UNDER WEAKENING
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
SHOT OF ENERGY SWEEPS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...HOWEVER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOT GENERATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THESE FEATURES. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...HOWEVER A COUPLE OF THE HI-RES MODELS
ARE TRYING TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY SO THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED. PRECIPITATION GENERATED IS LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES IN
THAT AREA REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ISSUES WOULD BE ANTICIPATED IF
THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE HIGH HAS WEDGED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE STATE AHEAD OF AN UPPER SHORT
WAVE DROPPING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK.
HAVE INTRODUCED POPS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ENDING FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL HAVE THE SURFACE WAVE MOVING ACROSS GA
AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH WEDGE IN PLACE AND THICKNESS VALUES
LOWERING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THIS IS ANOTHER POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER SYSTEM MOSTLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. FOR NOW
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE ALL SNOW AND THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET. THIS WILL BE MODIFIED AS THE TIME GETS CLOSER.
OTHERWISE...DRY AFTER TUESDAY WITH SOME TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH NOT MANY CLOUDS TO START. THE PROBLEM THEN
BECOMES THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT RANGING 2500 TO 4000 FT. SURFACE WINDS MAINLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING AND HEIGHT OF CEILINGS.
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR WIND DIRECTION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VSBYS AND WIND SPEEDS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          49  31  52  29 /   0  10  10   0
ATLANTA         50  34  53  30 /   0   5  10   0
BLAIRSVILLE     43  25  46  22 /   5   5  10   0
CARTERSVILLE    49  29  51  27 /   0   5  10   0
COLUMBUS        60  39  60  36 /   0   5  10   0
GAINESVILLE     46  31  50  28 /   0   5  10   0
MACON           57  37  60  34 /   0  10  10   0
ROME            48  28  51  26 /   0   5  10   0
PEACHTREE CITY  53  32  56  30 /   0   5  10   0
VIDALIA         59  43  63  40 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BDL




000
FXUS62 KCAE 111528
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1028 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY AND FARTHER
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A DRY FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTH TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS RELAXED AND MUCH LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACKING EASTWARD WITH A MOISTURE
INCREASE IN THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
SHOULD OCCUR BUT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR
PRECIPITATION AS INDICATED BY MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS.
ALSO...THERE WILL BE H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND JUST WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS KEEP POPS LESS THAN 20
PERCENT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM SHIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH
WESTERLY H85 FLOW. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER GUIDANCE POPS WITH A
FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHEAST
SECTION. THE TOP-DOWN METHOD USING THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORTED A
MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL
INDICATED QPF OF 0.01 OF AN INCH OR LESS. FURTHER DRYING WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION. IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...30 TO 70
PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 7-10 KTS BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASING LATER TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 111506
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1006 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
MOST OF THE DAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS LATE. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS
SUGGEST HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER TO
AROUND 60 NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. LIGHT WEST WINDS EARLY WILL
SHIFT MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SPUR A
SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES THAT WILL TRAVERSE A POORLY DEFINED
BAROCLINIC REGION ACROSS THE SE STATES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
BELOW 10K FT RESULTING IN AN EXPANSION OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BUT WITH 00Z MODELS PAINTING HIGH 850 MB TO 500
MB CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS...WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES LATE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS SHOULD SPELL OUT A
MILDER OVERNIGHT...TEMPS THIS EVENING MAY BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
WHAT TIME CLOUDS INCREASE. WE GRADUATED LOWS FROM THE MID 30S N TO
THE LOWER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT. THE MORNING WILL START OFF WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED JUST OFF THE COAST AND POISED TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE CLEARING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ALMOST ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL STAY JUST OFFSHORE...THOUGH THERE IS
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF IN THE MORNING. THE FORECAST MAINTAINS THE FEW
HOURS OF SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS EASTERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON
COUNTIES...BUT LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS ERODE AND
INSOLATION CAN BEGIN. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON IN THE EAST THE
LONGEST SO WE MAY END UP WITH QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. THE
FORECAST FEATURES HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE ALTAMAHA TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND...WITH LOW 40S AT THE
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BE DEFINED BY A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
A VERY COLD WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
LOW 20S IN MANY AREAS...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S COMMON. WITH ELEVATED
WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO AT LEAST THE
LOW TO MID TEENS NORTH OF I-16 WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FURTHER
SOUTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FINALLY FOR SUNDAY...HIGHS
WILL BE 20 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40 AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA...WITH MID 40S AROUND
SAVANNAH AND POINTS SOUTH.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST IN THE LONG
TERM WHICH IS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A SHARPENING COASTAL
TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD
FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT
SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE
WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS
AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOWERING STRATOCUMULUS POTENTIAL IN A WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS MORNING...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS RELAXING THE PRES GRADIENTS.
W FLOW WILL FALL BELOW 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING THEN THE FLOW
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL FALL
TO 2 FT OR LESS OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEAK LOW PRES WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS BY DAWN ON FRIDAY...THE
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND CHAOTIC AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RE-ESTABLISH A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL INVERSION TONIGHT BUT AN INCREASING SW JET
OVER WARMER OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM SHOULD
INCITE AN UPTICK IN SW FLOW BEYOND 40 NM OFFSHORE BUT WINDS AND
SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY AND COULD LEAD TO A SHORT PERIOD OF
NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE
SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE INTO MONDAY WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND
EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH




000
FXUS62 KFFC 111440 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
940 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING NEAR NORMAL AT CSG TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT AHN.

BDL

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LIGHT FLURRY ACTIVITY WE SAW OVERNIGHT IN THE
FAR NORTH HAS DISSIPATED. ITS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A FEW FLAKES WILL
FLY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THROUGH OR A LITTLE PAST DAYBREAK...
BUT I DO NOT ANTICIPATE ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE MENTION OF FLURRIES IN
THIS NEW FORECAST PACKAGE.

AFTER ONE LAST BITTER COLD NIGHT...WE WARM UP NICELY UNDER WEAKENING
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
SHOT OF ENERGY SWEEPS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...HOWEVER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOT GENERATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THESE FEATURES. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...HOWEVER A COUPLE OF THE HI-RES MODELS
ARE TRYING TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY SO THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED. PRECIPITATION GENERATED IS LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES IN
THAT AREA REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ISSUES WOULD BE ANTICIPATED IF
THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE HIGH HAS WEDGED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE STATE AHEAD OF AN UPPER SHORT
WAVE DROPPING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK.
HAVE INTRODUCED POPS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ENDING FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL HAVE THE SURFACE WAVE MOVING ACROSS GA
AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH WEDGE IN PLACE AND THICKNESS VALUES
LOWERING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THIS IS ANOTHER POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER SYSTEM MOSTLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. FOR NOW
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE ALL SNOW AND THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET. THIS WILL BE MODIFIED AS THE TIME GETS CLOSER.
OTHERWISE...DRY AFTER TUESDAY WITH SOME TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION.

41

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WINDS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION BUT LIGHT. I EXPECT WESTERLY
WIND DIRECTION TO DOMINATE THROUGH AROUND 00-04Z WHEN LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 06KT OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION...HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          49  31  52  29 /   0  10  10   0
ATLANTA         50  34  53  30 /   0   5  10   0
BLAIRSVILLE     43  25  46  22 /   5   5  10   0
CARTERSVILLE    49  29  51  27 /   0   5  10   0
COLUMBUS        60  39  60  36 /   0   5  10   0
GAINESVILLE     46  31  50  28 /   0   5  10   0
MACON           57  37  60  34 /   0  10  10   0
ROME            48  28  51  26 /   0   5  10   0
PEACHTREE CITY  53  32  56  30 /   0   5  10   0
VIDALIA         59  43  63  40 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 111219
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
719 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE WEAKENING LATE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE FROM THE
COLD READINGS ON WEDNESDAY THAT WERE STUCK IN THE LOWER 40S DURING
THE AFTERNOON MANY AREAS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST HIGHS
WILL WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 IN
GEORGIA TO AROUND 50 DEGREES AROUND THE SANTEE COOPER LAKES
REGION. A WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY PUSH HIGHS AT CHARLESTON TO
52-53 DEGREES WHILE SAVANNAH LIKELY REACHES THE MID 50S. THE
BIGGER FACTOR WILL BE MUCH LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY WITH SPEEDS
AVERAGING ONLY AROUND 10 MPH. SUNSHINE MAY BE PUNCTUATED BY A FEW
MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ALTER A MAINLY
SUNNY FORECAST.

TONIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SPUR A
SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES THAT WILL TRAVERSE A POORLY DEFINED
BAROCLINIC REGION ACROSS THE SE STATES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
BELOW 10K FT RESULTING IN AN EXPANSION OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BUT WITH 00Z MODELS PAINTING HIGH 850 MB TO 500
MB CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS...WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES LATE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS SHOULD SPELL OUT A
MILDER OVERNIGHT...TEMPS THIS EVENING MAY BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
WHAT TIME CLOUDS INCREASE. WE GRADUATED LOWS FROM THE MID 30S N TO
THE LOWER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT. THE MORNING WILL START OFF WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED JUST OFF THE COAST AND POISED TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE CLEARING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ALMOST ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL STAY JUST OFFSHORE...THOUGH THERE IS
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF IN THE MORNING. THE FORECAST MAINTAINS THE FEW
HOURS OF SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS EASTERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON
COUNTIES...BUT LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS ERODE AND
INSOLATION CAN BEGIN. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON IN THE EAST THE
LONGEST SO WE MAY END UP WITH QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. THE
FORECAST FEATURES HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE ALTAMAHA TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND...WITH LOW 40S AT THE
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BE DEFINED BY A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
A VERY COLD WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
LOW 20S IN MANY AREAS...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S COMMON. WITH ELEVATED
WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO AT LEAST THE
LOW TO MID TEENS NORTH OF I-16 WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FURTHER
SOUTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FINALLY FOR SUNDAY...HIGHS
WILL BE 20 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40 AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA...WITH MID 40S AROUND
SAVANNAH AND POINTS SOUTH.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST IN THE LONG
TERM WHICH IS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A SHARPENING COASTAL
TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD
FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT
SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE
WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS
AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOWERING STRATOCUMULUS POTENTIAL IN A WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 700 AM EST WE LOWERED ALL REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. THIS MORNING...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
RELAXING THE PRES GRADIENTS. W FLOW WILL FALL BELOW 10 KT LATER
THIS MORNING THEN THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2 FT OR LESS OVER THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEAK LOW PRES WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS BY DAWN ON FRIDAY...THE
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND CHAOTIC AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RE-ESTABLISH A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL INVERSION TONIGHT BUT AN INCREASING SW JET
OVER WARMER OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM SHOULD
INCITE AN UPTICK IN SW FLOW BEYOND 40 NM OFFSHORE BUT WINDS AND
SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY AND COULD LEAD TO A SHORT PERIOD OF
NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE
SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE INTO MONDAY WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND
EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 111219
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
719 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE WEAKENING LATE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE FROM THE
COLD READINGS ON WEDNESDAY THAT WERE STUCK IN THE LOWER 40S DURING
THE AFTERNOON MANY AREAS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST HIGHS
WILL WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 IN
GEORGIA TO AROUND 50 DEGREES AROUND THE SANTEE COOPER LAKES
REGION. A WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY PUSH HIGHS AT CHARLESTON TO
52-53 DEGREES WHILE SAVANNAH LIKELY REACHES THE MID 50S. THE
BIGGER FACTOR WILL BE MUCH LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY WITH SPEEDS
AVERAGING ONLY AROUND 10 MPH. SUNSHINE MAY BE PUNCTUATED BY A FEW
MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ALTER A MAINLY
SUNNY FORECAST.

TONIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SPUR A
SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES THAT WILL TRAVERSE A POORLY DEFINED
BAROCLINIC REGION ACROSS THE SE STATES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
BELOW 10K FT RESULTING IN AN EXPANSION OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BUT WITH 00Z MODELS PAINTING HIGH 850 MB TO 500
MB CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS...WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES LATE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS SHOULD SPELL OUT A
MILDER OVERNIGHT...TEMPS THIS EVENING MAY BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
WHAT TIME CLOUDS INCREASE. WE GRADUATED LOWS FROM THE MID 30S N TO
THE LOWER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT. THE MORNING WILL START OFF WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED JUST OFF THE COAST AND POISED TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE CLEARING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ALMOST ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL STAY JUST OFFSHORE...THOUGH THERE IS
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF IN THE MORNING. THE FORECAST MAINTAINS THE FEW
HOURS OF SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS EASTERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON
COUNTIES...BUT LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS ERODE AND
INSOLATION CAN BEGIN. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON IN THE EAST THE
LONGEST SO WE MAY END UP WITH QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. THE
FORECAST FEATURES HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE ALTAMAHA TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND...WITH LOW 40S AT THE
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BE DEFINED BY A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
A VERY COLD WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
LOW 20S IN MANY AREAS...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S COMMON. WITH ELEVATED
WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO AT LEAST THE
LOW TO MID TEENS NORTH OF I-16 WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FURTHER
SOUTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FINALLY FOR SUNDAY...HIGHS
WILL BE 20 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40 AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA...WITH MID 40S AROUND
SAVANNAH AND POINTS SOUTH.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST IN THE LONG
TERM WHICH IS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A SHARPENING COASTAL
TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD
FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT
SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE
WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS
AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOWERING STRATOCUMULUS POTENTIAL IN A WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 700 AM EST WE LOWERED ALL REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. THIS MORNING...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
RELAXING THE PRES GRADIENTS. W FLOW WILL FALL BELOW 10 KT LATER
THIS MORNING THEN THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2 FT OR LESS OVER THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEAK LOW PRES WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS BY DAWN ON FRIDAY...THE
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND CHAOTIC AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RE-ESTABLISH A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL INVERSION TONIGHT BUT AN INCREASING SW JET
OVER WARMER OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM SHOULD
INCITE AN UPTICK IN SW FLOW BEYOND 40 NM OFFSHORE BUT WINDS AND
SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY AND COULD LEAD TO A SHORT PERIOD OF
NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE
SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE INTO MONDAY WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND
EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH



000
FXUS62 KCHS 111219
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
719 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE WEAKENING LATE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE FROM THE
COLD READINGS ON WEDNESDAY THAT WERE STUCK IN THE LOWER 40S DURING
THE AFTERNOON MANY AREAS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST HIGHS
WILL WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 IN
GEORGIA TO AROUND 50 DEGREES AROUND THE SANTEE COOPER LAKES
REGION. A WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY PUSH HIGHS AT CHARLESTON TO
52-53 DEGREES WHILE SAVANNAH LIKELY REACHES THE MID 50S. THE
BIGGER FACTOR WILL BE MUCH LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY WITH SPEEDS
AVERAGING ONLY AROUND 10 MPH. SUNSHINE MAY BE PUNCTUATED BY A FEW
MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ALTER A MAINLY
SUNNY FORECAST.

TONIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SPUR A
SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES THAT WILL TRAVERSE A POORLY DEFINED
BAROCLINIC REGION ACROSS THE SE STATES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
BELOW 10K FT RESULTING IN AN EXPANSION OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BUT WITH 00Z MODELS PAINTING HIGH 850 MB TO 500
MB CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS...WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES LATE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS SHOULD SPELL OUT A
MILDER OVERNIGHT...TEMPS THIS EVENING MAY BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
WHAT TIME CLOUDS INCREASE. WE GRADUATED LOWS FROM THE MID 30S N TO
THE LOWER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT. THE MORNING WILL START OFF WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED JUST OFF THE COAST AND POISED TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE CLEARING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ALMOST ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL STAY JUST OFFSHORE...THOUGH THERE IS
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF IN THE MORNING. THE FORECAST MAINTAINS THE FEW
HOURS OF SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS EASTERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON
COUNTIES...BUT LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS ERODE AND
INSOLATION CAN BEGIN. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON IN THE EAST THE
LONGEST SO WE MAY END UP WITH QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. THE
FORECAST FEATURES HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE ALTAMAHA TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND...WITH LOW 40S AT THE
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BE DEFINED BY A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
A VERY COLD WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
LOW 20S IN MANY AREAS...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S COMMON. WITH ELEVATED
WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO AT LEAST THE
LOW TO MID TEENS NORTH OF I-16 WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FURTHER
SOUTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FINALLY FOR SUNDAY...HIGHS
WILL BE 20 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40 AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA...WITH MID 40S AROUND
SAVANNAH AND POINTS SOUTH.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST IN THE LONG
TERM WHICH IS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A SHARPENING COASTAL
TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD
FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT
SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE
WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS
AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOWERING STRATOCUMULUS POTENTIAL IN A WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 700 AM EST WE LOWERED ALL REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. THIS MORNING...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
RELAXING THE PRES GRADIENTS. W FLOW WILL FALL BELOW 10 KT LATER
THIS MORNING THEN THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2 FT OR LESS OVER THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEAK LOW PRES WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS BY DAWN ON FRIDAY...THE
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND CHAOTIC AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RE-ESTABLISH A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL INVERSION TONIGHT BUT AN INCREASING SW JET
OVER WARMER OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM SHOULD
INCITE AN UPTICK IN SW FLOW BEYOND 40 NM OFFSHORE BUT WINDS AND
SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY AND COULD LEAD TO A SHORT PERIOD OF
NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE
SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE INTO MONDAY WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND
EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH




000
FXUS62 KCAE 111141
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY AND FARTHER
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A DRY FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTH TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS RELAXED AND MUCH LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACKING EASTWARD WITH A MOISTURE
INCREASE IN THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
SHOULD OCCUR BUT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR
PRECIPITATION AS INDICATED BY MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS.
ALSO...THERE WILL BE H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND JUST WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS KEEP POPS LESS THAN 20
PERCENT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM SHIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH
WESTERLY H85 FLOW. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER GUIDANCE POPS WITH A
FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHEAST
SECTION. THE TOP-DOWN METHOD USING THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORTED A
MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL
INDICATED QPF OF 0.01 OF AN INCH OR LESS. FURTHER DRYING WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION. IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...30 TO 70
PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASING TO AROUND 7-10
KTS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASING LATER TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 111141
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY AND FARTHER
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A DRY FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTH TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS RELAXED AND MUCH LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACKING EASTWARD WITH A MOISTURE
INCREASE IN THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
SHOULD OCCUR BUT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR
PRECIPITATION AS INDICATED BY MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS.
ALSO...THERE WILL BE H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND JUST WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS KEEP POPS LESS THAN 20
PERCENT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM SHIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH
WESTERLY H85 FLOW. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER GUIDANCE POPS WITH A
FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHEAST
SECTION. THE TOP-DOWN METHOD USING THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORTED A
MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL
INDICATED QPF OF 0.01 OF AN INCH OR LESS. FURTHER DRYING WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION. IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...30 TO 70
PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASING TO AROUND 7-10
KTS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASING LATER TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 111141
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY AND FARTHER
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A DRY FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTH TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS RELAXED AND MUCH LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACKING EASTWARD WITH A MOISTURE
INCREASE IN THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
SHOULD OCCUR BUT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR
PRECIPITATION AS INDICATED BY MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS.
ALSO...THERE WILL BE H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND JUST WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS KEEP POPS LESS THAN 20
PERCENT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM SHIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH
WESTERLY H85 FLOW. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER GUIDANCE POPS WITH A
FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHEAST
SECTION. THE TOP-DOWN METHOD USING THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORTED A
MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL
INDICATED QPF OF 0.01 OF AN INCH OR LESS. FURTHER DRYING WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION. IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...30 TO 70
PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASING TO AROUND 7-10
KTS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASING LATER TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KFFC 111121 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
620 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LIGHT FLURRY ACTIVITY WE SAW OVERNIGHT IN THE
FAR NORTH HAS DISSIPATED. ITS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A FEW FLAKES WILL
FLY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THROUGH OR A LITTLE PAST DAYBREAK...
BUT I DO NOT ANTICIPATE ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE MENTION OF FLURRIES IN
THIS NEW FORECAST PACKAGE.

AFTER ONE LAST BITTER COLD NIGHT...WE WARM UP NICELY UNDER WEAKENING
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
SHOT OF ENERGY SWEEPS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...HOWEVER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOT GENERATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THESE FEATURES. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...HOWEVER A COUPLE OF THE HI-RES MODELS
ARE TRYING TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY SO THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED. PRECIPITATION GENERATED IS LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES IN
THAT AREA REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ISSUES WOULD BE ANTICIPATED IF
THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT.


20


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE HIGH HAS WEDGED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE STATE AHEAD OF AN UPPER SHORT
WAVE DROPPING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK.
HAVE INTRODUCED POPS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ENDING FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL HAVE THE SURFACE WAVE MOVING ACROSS GA
AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH WEDGE IN PLACE AND THICKNESS VALUES
LOWERING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THIS IS ANOTHER POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER SYSTEM MOSTLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. FOR NOW
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE ALL SNOW AND THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET. THIS WILL BE MODIFIED AS THE TIME GETS CLOSER.
OTHERWISE...DRY AFTER TUESDAY WITH SOME TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION.


41


&&


AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WINDS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION BUT LIGHT. I EXPECT WESTERLY
WIND DIRECTION TO DOMINATE THROUGH AROUND 00-04Z WHEN LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 06KT OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION...HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          49  31  52  29 /   0  10  10   0
ATLANTA         50  34  53  30 /   0   5  10   0
BLAIRSVILLE     43  25  46  22 /   5   5  10   0
CARTERSVILLE    49  29  51  27 /   0   5  10   0
COLUMBUS        60  39  60  36 /   0   5  10   0
GAINESVILLE     46  31  50  28 /   0   5  10   0
MACON           57  37  60  34 /   0  10  10   0
ROME            48  28  51  26 /   0   5  10   0
PEACHTREE CITY  53  32  56  30 /   0   5  10   0
VIDALIA         59  43  63  40 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...
PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KCHS 110911
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
411 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAD NESTLED OVER SOUTH GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING WHILE A LINGERING LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT HAS KEPT LIGHT
BREEZES STIRRING FROM AREAS NORTH OF I-16 INCLUDING MOST OF SE
SOUTH CAROLINA. SHELTERED TEMPS IN RURAL AREAS TENDING TO RUN
QUITE A BIT COLDER WHILE MORE URBAN AND EXPOSED SITES HAD BEEN
BOUNCING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND A
LIGHT WEST BREEZE FOR COASTAL AREAS NEARING DAWN...SOUTHERN AND
INLAND ZONES SHOULD DECOUPLE JUST ENOUGH TO SEE LOW TEMPS OCCUR
DURING THE DAYBREAK HOUR...MANY AREAS SHOULD BE DOWN TO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S.

TODAY A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE WEAKENING LATE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE FROM THE COLD
READINGS ON WEDNESDAY THAT WERE STUCK IN THE LOWER 40S DURING THE
AFTERNOON MANY AREAS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST HIGHS WILL
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 IN GEORGIA TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES AROUND THE SANTEE COOPER LAKES REGION. A WEAK
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY PUSH HIGHS AT CHARLESTON TO 52-53 DEGREES
WHILE SAVANNAH LIKELY REACHES THE MID 50S. THE BIGGER FACTOR
WILL BE MUCH LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING ONLY
AROUND 10 MPH. SUNSHINE MAY BE PUNCTUATED BY A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS
LATER IN THE DAY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ALTER A MAINLY SUNNY FORECAST.

TONIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SPUR A
SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES THAT WILL TRAVERSE A POORLY DEFINED
BAROCLINIC REGION ACROSS THE SE STATES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
BELOW 10K FT RESULTING IN AN EXPANSION OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BUT WITH 00Z MODELS PAINTING HIGH 850 MB TO 500
MB CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS...WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES LATE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS SHOULD SPELL OUT A
MILDER OVERNIGHT...TEMPS THIS EVENING MAY BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
WHAT TIME CLOUDS INCREASE. WE GRADUATED LOWS FROM THE MID 30S N TO
THE LOWER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT. THE MORNING WILL START OFF WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED JUST OFF THE COAST AND POISED TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE CLEARING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ALMOST ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL STAY JUST OFFSHORE...THOUGH THERE IS
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF IN THE MORNING. THE FORECAST MAINTAINS THE FEW
HOURS OF SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS EASTERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON
COUNTIES...BUT LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS ERODE AND
INSOLATION CAN BEGIN. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON IN THE EAST THE
LONGEST SO WE MAY END UP WITH QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. THE
FORECAST FEATURES HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE ALTAMAHA TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND...WITH LOW 40S AT THE
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BE DEFINED BY A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
A VERY COLD WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
LOW 20S IN MANY AREAS...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S COMMON. WITH ELEVATED
WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO AT LEAST THE
LOW TO MID TEENS NORTH OF I-16 WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FURTHER
SOUTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FINALLY FOR SUNDAY...HIGHS
WILL BE 20 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40 AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA...WITH MID 40S AROUND
SAVANNAH AND POINTS SOUTH.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST IN THE LONG
TERM WHICH IS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A SHARPENING COASTAL
TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD
FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT
SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE
WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 330 AM EST WE LOWERED ADVISORIES FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS SOUTH
OF EDISTO BEACH AND EXPECT THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE NEAR SHORE
CHARLESTON WATERS WILL BE READY TO COME DOWN BY DAYBREAK AS WILL
THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

THIS MORNING...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS RELAXING THE PRES GRADIENTS. W FLOW
WILL FALL BELOW 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING THEN THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2 FT OR LESS
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEAK LOW PRES WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS BY DAWN ON FRIDAY...THE
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND CHAOTIC AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RE-ESTABLISH A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL INVERSION TONIGHT BUT AN INCREASING SW JET
OVER WARMER OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM SHOULD
INCITE AN UPTICK IN SW FLOW BEYOND 40 NM OFFSHORE BUT WINDS AND
SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY AND COULD LEAD TO A SHORT PERIOD OF
NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE
SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE INTO MONDAY WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND
EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-
     374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 110911
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
411 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAD NESTLED OVER SOUTH GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING WHILE A LINGERING LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT HAS KEPT LIGHT
BREEZES STIRRING FROM AREAS NORTH OF I-16 INCLUDING MOST OF SE
SOUTH CAROLINA. SHELTERED TEMPS IN RURAL AREAS TENDING TO RUN
QUITE A BIT COLDER WHILE MORE URBAN AND EXPOSED SITES HAD BEEN
BOUNCING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND A
LIGHT WEST BREEZE FOR COASTAL AREAS NEARING DAWN...SOUTHERN AND
INLAND ZONES SHOULD DECOUPLE JUST ENOUGH TO SEE LOW TEMPS OCCUR
DURING THE DAYBREAK HOUR...MANY AREAS SHOULD BE DOWN TO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S.

TODAY A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE WEAKENING LATE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE FROM THE COLD
READINGS ON WEDNESDAY THAT WERE STUCK IN THE LOWER 40S DURING THE
AFTERNOON MANY AREAS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST HIGHS WILL
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 IN GEORGIA TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES AROUND THE SANTEE COOPER LAKES REGION. A WEAK
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY PUSH HIGHS AT CHARLESTON TO 52-53 DEGREES
WHILE SAVANNAH LIKELY REACHES THE MID 50S. THE BIGGER FACTOR
WILL BE MUCH LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING ONLY
AROUND 10 MPH. SUNSHINE MAY BE PUNCTUATED BY A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS
LATER IN THE DAY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ALTER A MAINLY SUNNY FORECAST.

TONIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SPUR A
SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES THAT WILL TRAVERSE A POORLY DEFINED
BAROCLINIC REGION ACROSS THE SE STATES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
BELOW 10K FT RESULTING IN AN EXPANSION OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BUT WITH 00Z MODELS PAINTING HIGH 850 MB TO 500
MB CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS...WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES LATE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS SHOULD SPELL OUT A
MILDER OVERNIGHT...TEMPS THIS EVENING MAY BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
WHAT TIME CLOUDS INCREASE. WE GRADUATED LOWS FROM THE MID 30S N TO
THE LOWER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT. THE MORNING WILL START OFF WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED JUST OFF THE COAST AND POISED TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE CLEARING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ALMOST ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL STAY JUST OFFSHORE...THOUGH THERE IS
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF IN THE MORNING. THE FORECAST MAINTAINS THE FEW
HOURS OF SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS EASTERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON
COUNTIES...BUT LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS ERODE AND
INSOLATION CAN BEGIN. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON IN THE EAST THE
LONGEST SO WE MAY END UP WITH QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. THE
FORECAST FEATURES HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE ALTAMAHA TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND...WITH LOW 40S AT THE
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BE DEFINED BY A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
A VERY COLD WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
LOW 20S IN MANY AREAS...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S COMMON. WITH ELEVATED
WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO AT LEAST THE
LOW TO MID TEENS NORTH OF I-16 WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FURTHER
SOUTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FINALLY FOR SUNDAY...HIGHS
WILL BE 20 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40 AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA...WITH MID 40S AROUND
SAVANNAH AND POINTS SOUTH.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST IN THE LONG
TERM WHICH IS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A SHARPENING COASTAL
TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD
FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT
SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE
WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 330 AM EST WE LOWERED ADVISORIES FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS SOUTH
OF EDISTO BEACH AND EXPECT THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE NEAR SHORE
CHARLESTON WATERS WILL BE READY TO COME DOWN BY DAYBREAK AS WILL
THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

THIS MORNING...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS RELAXING THE PRES GRADIENTS. W FLOW
WILL FALL BELOW 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING THEN THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2 FT OR LESS
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEAK LOW PRES WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS BY DAWN ON FRIDAY...THE
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND CHAOTIC AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RE-ESTABLISH A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL INVERSION TONIGHT BUT AN INCREASING SW JET
OVER WARMER OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM SHOULD
INCITE AN UPTICK IN SW FLOW BEYOND 40 NM OFFSHORE BUT WINDS AND
SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY AND COULD LEAD TO A SHORT PERIOD OF
NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE
SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE INTO MONDAY WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND
EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-
     374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH




000
FXUS62 KCAE 110900
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
400 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY AND FARTHER
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A DRY FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTH TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS RELAXED AND MUCH LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACKING EASTWARD WITH A MOISTURE
INCREASE IN THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
SHOULD OCCUR BUT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR
PRECIPITATION AS INDICATED BY MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS.
ALSO...THERE WILL BE H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND JUST WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS KEEP POPS LESS THAN 20
PERCENT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM SHIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH
WESTERLY H85 FLOW. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER GUIDANCE POPS WITH A
FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHEAST
SECTION. THE TOP-DOWN METHOD USING THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORTED A MIX
OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL INDICATED
QPF OF 0.01 OF AN INCH OR LESS. FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION. IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...30 TO 70
PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASING TO AROUND 7-10
KTS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASING LATER TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KFFC 110831
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
331 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LIGHT FLURRY ACTIVITY WE SAW OVERNIGHT IN THE
FAR NORTH HAS DISSIPATED. ITS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A FEW FLAKES WILL
FLY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THROUGH OR A LITTLE PAST DAYBREAK...
BUT I DO NOT ANTICIPATE ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE MENTION OF FLURRIES IN
THIS NEW FORECAST PACKAGE.

AFTER ONE LAST BITTER COLD NIGHT...WE WARM UP NICELY UNDER WEAKENING
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
SHOT OF ENERGY SWEEPS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...HOWEVER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOT GENERATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THESE FEATURES. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...HOWEVER A COUPLE OF THE HI-RES MODELS
ARE TRYING TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY SO THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED. PRECIPITATION GENERATED IS LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES IN
THAT AREA REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ISSUES WOULD BE ANTICIPATED IF
THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT.


20


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE HIGH HAS WEDGED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE STATE AHEAD OF AN UPPER SHORT
WAVE DROPPING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK.
HAVE INTRODUCED POPS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ENDING FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL HAVE THE SURFACE WAVE MOVING ACROSS GA
AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH WEDGE IN PLACE AND THICKNESS VALUES
LOWERING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THIS IS ANOTHER POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER SYSTEM MOSTLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. FOR NOW
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE ALL SNOW AND THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET. THIS WILL BE MODIFIED AS THE TIME GETS CLOSER.
OTHERWISE...DRY AFTER TUESDAY WITH SOME TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION.


41


&&


AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
BEFORE 15Z AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AFTER 03Z...HOWEVER I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY IMPACTS AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION BUT LIGHT. I EXPECT WESTERLY WIND DIRECTION TO DOMINATE
THROUGH AROUND 00-04Z WHEN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 06KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION...HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          49  31  52  29 /   0  10  10   0
ATLANTA         50  34  53  30 /   0   5  10   0
BLAIRSVILLE     43  25  46  22 /   5   5  10   0
CARTERSVILLE    49  29  51  27 /   0   5  10   0
COLUMBUS        60  39  60  36 /   0   5  10   0
GAINESVILLE     46  31  50  28 /   0   5  10   0
MACON           57  37  60  34 /   0  10  10   0
ROME            48  28  51  26 /   0   5  10   0
PEACHTREE CITY  53  32  56  30 /   0   5  10   0
VIDALIA         59  43  63  40 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...
PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 110559 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
100 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE IS HEADED THIS WAY IN THE FAST NW FLOW
ALOFT THAT COULD CAUSE SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER PORTIONS OF N GA
TONIGHT...AS FAR S AS THE NORTHERN METRO AREA. FLURRIES MEANS
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.

THE BEST MOISTURE SUBSIDES FOR THURSDAY BUT THE EUROPEAN IS INDICATING
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BUT
THE GFS AND NAM KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE N AND E OF THE AREA. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT DRY AND WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF THE MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE COLD WINDIER AREAS OF THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT
AND NEAR TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 3-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

BDL

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PER THE MONDAY SYSTEM...CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS
TO LIKELY FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE CWA. THE BIG QUESTION
IS P-TYPE. PARTIAL THICKNESS IS LEANING TO A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS
THE WARMER OF THE MODELS. WHAT WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT WITH IS
THAT SOME TYPE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THE QUESTION IS WHAT AND HOW MUCH. AT THIS TIME WILL
LEAVE IT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE SCENARIO
WE CAN GET MORE DETAILED WITH P-TYPE...WE ARE STILL 5 DAYS OUT AND
A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
ARE PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
BEFORE 15Z AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AFTER 03Z...HOWEVER I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY IMPACTS AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION BUT LIGHT. I EXPECT WESTERLY WIND DIRECTION TO DOMINATE
THROUGH AROUND 00-04Z WHEN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 06KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION...HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          25  49  30  53 /   0   0  10  10
ATLANTA         27  50  34  54 /   0   0  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     20  42  26  45 /  10   0  10  10
CARTERSVILLE    23  48  29  52 /  10   0  10  10
COLUMBUS        29  58  38  62 /   0   0   5  10
GAINESVILLE     25  45  30  49 /  10   0  10  10
MACON           27  55  36  61 /   0   0  10  10
ROME            23  48  28  52 /  10   0  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  24  52  31  56 /   0   0   5  10
VIDALIA         29  57  42  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...
TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 110559 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
100 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE IS HEADED THIS WAY IN THE FAST NW FLOW
ALOFT THAT COULD CAUSE SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER PORTIONS OF N GA
TONIGHT...AS FAR S AS THE NORTHERN METRO AREA. FLURRIES MEANS
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.

THE BEST MOISTURE SUBSIDES FOR THURSDAY BUT THE EUROPEAN IS INDICATING
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BUT
THE GFS AND NAM KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE N AND E OF THE AREA. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT DRY AND WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF THE MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE COLD WINDIER AREAS OF THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT
AND NEAR TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 3-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

BDL

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PER THE MONDAY SYSTEM...CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS
TO LIKELY FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE CWA. THE BIG QUESTION
IS P-TYPE. PARTIAL THICKNESS IS LEANING TO A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS
THE WARMER OF THE MODELS. WHAT WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT WITH IS
THAT SOME TYPE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THE QUESTION IS WHAT AND HOW MUCH. AT THIS TIME WILL
LEAVE IT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE SCENARIO
WE CAN GET MORE DETAILED WITH P-TYPE...WE ARE STILL 5 DAYS OUT AND
A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
ARE PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
BEFORE 15Z AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AFTER 03Z...HOWEVER I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY IMPACTS AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION BUT LIGHT. I EXPECT WESTERLY WIND DIRECTION TO DOMINATE
THROUGH AROUND 00-04Z WHEN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 06KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION...HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          25  49  30  53 /   0   0  10  10
ATLANTA         27  50  34  54 /   0   0  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     20  42  26  45 /  10   0  10  10
CARTERSVILLE    23  48  29  52 /  10   0  10  10
COLUMBUS        29  58  38  62 /   0   0   5  10
GAINESVILLE     25  45  30  49 /  10   0  10  10
MACON           27  55  36  61 /   0   0  10  10
ROME            23  48  28  52 /  10   0  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  24  52  31  56 /   0   0   5  10
VIDALIA         29  57  42  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...
TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 110559 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
100 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE IS HEADED THIS WAY IN THE FAST NW FLOW
ALOFT THAT COULD CAUSE SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER PORTIONS OF N GA
TONIGHT...AS FAR S AS THE NORTHERN METRO AREA. FLURRIES MEANS
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.

THE BEST MOISTURE SUBSIDES FOR THURSDAY BUT THE EUROPEAN IS INDICATING
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BUT
THE GFS AND NAM KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE N AND E OF THE AREA. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT DRY AND WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF THE MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE COLD WINDIER AREAS OF THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT
AND NEAR TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 3-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

BDL

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PER THE MONDAY SYSTEM...CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS
TO LIKELY FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE CWA. THE BIG QUESTION
IS P-TYPE. PARTIAL THICKNESS IS LEANING TO A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS
THE WARMER OF THE MODELS. WHAT WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT WITH IS
THAT SOME TYPE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THE QUESTION IS WHAT AND HOW MUCH. AT THIS TIME WILL
LEAVE IT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE SCENARIO
WE CAN GET MORE DETAILED WITH P-TYPE...WE ARE STILL 5 DAYS OUT AND
A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
ARE PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
BEFORE 15Z AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AFTER 03Z...HOWEVER I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY IMPACTS AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION BUT LIGHT. I EXPECT WESTERLY WIND DIRECTION TO DOMINATE
THROUGH AROUND 00-04Z WHEN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 06KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION...HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          25  49  30  53 /   0   0  10  10
ATLANTA         27  50  34  54 /   0   0  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     20  42  26  45 /  10   0  10  10
CARTERSVILLE    23  48  29  52 /  10   0  10  10
COLUMBUS        29  58  38  62 /   0   0   5  10
GAINESVILLE     25  45  30  49 /  10   0  10  10
MACON           27  55  36  61 /   0   0  10  10
ROME            23  48  28  52 /  10   0  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  24  52  31  56 /   0   0   5  10
VIDALIA         29  57  42  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...
TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KCHS 110553
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1253 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
PROPAGATE EAST OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S WITH LOWER
30S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LONGWAVE FLATTENS OUT WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL DROP TOWARD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE MOST
AREAS WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY WITH
REBOUNDING TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
SPUR A WEAK SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SC COAST ALONG THE
TRAVERSING FRONT. SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING SKY COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GA WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S THOUGH COLD
ADVECTION IN NORTHERN AREAS WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
THE ONLY APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND FAR EASTERN LAND AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN.

THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE A
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
START THE DAY BUT WE EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND SOME LATE
AFTERNOON SUN SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
ELSEWHERE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

AN EXPANSIVE 1044 MB HIGH WILL BUILD FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...PUSHING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS REASONABLY GOOD AND
THE FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THINGS
START OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S...AND ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. INCLUDED MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL CHANCES WILL IMPACT
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND PUSHES A DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...WITH A MODERATING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A NORTHWARD
EXTENSION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL NECESSITATE
KEEPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
FOR ALL MARINE LEGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHARLESTON HARBOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTLINE FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE
GA WATERS. OTHERWISE THE NEXT MAIN SURGE WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOW OUT TIDES AROUND LOW TIDE EARLY
THURSDAY REACHING NEAR -1.0 FT MLLW IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND -1.5
FT MLLW AT FORT PULASKI.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ350-352-354-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 110553
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1253 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
PROPAGATE EAST OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S WITH LOWER
30S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LONGWAVE FLATTENS OUT WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL DROP TOWARD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE MOST
AREAS WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY WITH
REBOUNDING TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
SPUR A WEAK SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SC COAST ALONG THE
TRAVERSING FRONT. SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING SKY COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GA WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S THOUGH COLD
ADVECTION IN NORTHERN AREAS WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
THE ONLY APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND FAR EASTERN LAND AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN.

THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE A
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
START THE DAY BUT WE EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND SOME LATE
AFTERNOON SUN SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
ELSEWHERE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

AN EXPANSIVE 1044 MB HIGH WILL BUILD FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...PUSHING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS REASONABLY GOOD AND
THE FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THINGS
START OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S...AND ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. INCLUDED MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL CHANCES WILL IMPACT
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND PUSHES A DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...WITH A MODERATING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A NORTHWARD
EXTENSION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL NECESSITATE
KEEPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
FOR ALL MARINE LEGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHARLESTON HARBOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTLINE FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE
GA WATERS. OTHERWISE THE NEXT MAIN SURGE WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOW OUT TIDES AROUND LOW TIDE EARLY
THURSDAY REACHING NEAR -1.0 FT MLLW IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND -1.5
FT MLLW AT FORT PULASKI.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ350-352-354-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 110553
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1253 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
PROPAGATE EAST OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S WITH LOWER
30S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LONGWAVE FLATTENS OUT WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL DROP TOWARD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE MOST
AREAS WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY WITH
REBOUNDING TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
SPUR A WEAK SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SC COAST ALONG THE
TRAVERSING FRONT. SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING SKY COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GA WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S THOUGH COLD
ADVECTION IN NORTHERN AREAS WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
THE ONLY APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND FAR EASTERN LAND AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN.

THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE A
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
START THE DAY BUT WE EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND SOME LATE
AFTERNOON SUN SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
ELSEWHERE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

AN EXPANSIVE 1044 MB HIGH WILL BUILD FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...PUSHING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS REASONABLY GOOD AND
THE FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THINGS
START OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S...AND ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. INCLUDED MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL CHANCES WILL IMPACT
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND PUSHES A DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...WITH A MODERATING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A NORTHWARD
EXTENSION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL NECESSITATE
KEEPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
FOR ALL MARINE LEGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHARLESTON HARBOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTLINE FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE
GA WATERS. OTHERWISE THE NEXT MAIN SURGE WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOW OUT TIDES AROUND LOW TIDE EARLY
THURSDAY REACHING NEAR -1.0 FT MLLW IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND -1.5
FT MLLW AT FORT PULASKI.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ350-352-354-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 110320
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1020 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK FRONT
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL
BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY AND FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. LESS WIND
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE RIDGE GETS CLOSER TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS SHOW BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH LIGHTER WIND AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD
TROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS DEVELOP WEAK LOW
PRESSURE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN DRIER WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT FAVOR FROZEN PRECIP WITH MOST OF
THE MODELS PRODUCING THE BEST MOISTURE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER THE NAM IS A LITTLE QUICKER TO DEVELOP THE LOW WHICH MAY
BRING PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES ALONG THE EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS
IF VERIFIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AIRMASS MOVES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW
THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL LINGER AS WARM ADVECTION OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE
MAY ALLOW FOR WEDGE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
TYPE MAY BE A CONCERN DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE COLD AIR STAYS
IN. THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS THE COLDEST SURFACE WETBULB TEMPS DUE
TO MUCH DRIER LOW LEVELS. SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HOWEVER WITH MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
VARYING GREATLY THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. WILL SEE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 110320
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1020 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK FRONT
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL
BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY AND FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. LESS WIND
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE RIDGE GETS CLOSER TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS SHOW BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH LIGHTER WIND AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD
TROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS DEVELOP WEAK LOW
PRESSURE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN DRIER WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT FAVOR FROZEN PRECIP WITH MOST OF
THE MODELS PRODUCING THE BEST MOISTURE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER THE NAM IS A LITTLE QUICKER TO DEVELOP THE LOW WHICH MAY
BRING PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES ALONG THE EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS
IF VERIFIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AIRMASS MOVES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW
THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL LINGER AS WARM ADVECTION OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE
MAY ALLOW FOR WEDGE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
TYPE MAY BE A CONCERN DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE COLD AIR STAYS
IN. THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS THE COLDEST SURFACE WETBULB TEMPS DUE
TO MUCH DRIER LOW LEVELS. SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HOWEVER WITH MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
VARYING GREATLY THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. WILL SEE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities