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000
FXUS62 KCHS 230234
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1034 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A DRY
AIRMASS AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN FEW IF
ANY CLOUDS...AND EXPECT RATHER COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA GIVEN A SYNOPTIC NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WHILE WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS...THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN A MORE
MIXED/COUPLED ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND WHERE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT LIKELY ONLY FALL TO LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
WILL STEADILY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK/SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH FEATURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTS, WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
BEACHES BY SUNDAY. THE 22/12Z NAM/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND PUSHING ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT THIS LOOKS A BIT BULLISH WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SREF MEMBERS AND THE 22/00Z ECMWF SHOWING MUCH DRIER SOLUTIONS.
PREFER TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE DRIER ECMWF/SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH
IS ALSO SIMILAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS KEEPS MENTIONABLE POPS
OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE ADJACENT
GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. IF THE 22/12Z ECMWF AND 22/21Z SREF TREND
WETTER...THAN THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS MAY BE NEEDED
WITH THE FULL FORECAST PACKAGE SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER-MID 80S BOTH DAY, POSSIBLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
WELL INLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50/NEAR 60 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES SUNDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC, HELPING TO ADVECT
HIGHER MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER-700 HPA THETA-E INTO THE REGION. THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL WITH 500 HPA HEIGHTS REACHING 593 DM AND THE CENTER OF
THE 850 HPA ANTICYCLONE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO
LIMIT THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH FAIRLY WARM
MID-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S; COOLER
AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING
AND MOVE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS WHICH WILL
SUPPORT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL
INCREASE BACK INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT
THE MAIN WIND DRIVER IS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATED AND NOT
MIXING...FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
LOW 20 KT RANGE AT TIME AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE
NEEDED. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 FT OUT AROUND 20 NM MAINLY OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST...AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN LESS THAN
IDEAL CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO SATURDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL KEEP THE SEA STATE RATHER CHOPPY WITH SEA
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND 4-5 FT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 5-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...MAINLY FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG WHERE SEA BREACH THE 6 FT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
A BIT IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15
KT OR SO. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AN
5-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JAQ/BSH/ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 230234
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1034 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A DRY
AIRMASS AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN FEW IF
ANY CLOUDS...AND EXPECT RATHER COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA GIVEN A SYNOPTIC NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WHILE WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS...THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN A MORE
MIXED/COUPLED ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND WHERE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT LIKELY ONLY FALL TO LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
WILL STEADILY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK/SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH FEATURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTS, WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
BEACHES BY SUNDAY. THE 22/12Z NAM/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND PUSHING ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT THIS LOOKS A BIT BULLISH WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SREF MEMBERS AND THE 22/00Z ECMWF SHOWING MUCH DRIER SOLUTIONS.
PREFER TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE DRIER ECMWF/SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH
IS ALSO SIMILAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS KEEPS MENTIONABLE POPS
OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE ADJACENT
GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. IF THE 22/12Z ECMWF AND 22/21Z SREF TREND
WETTER...THAN THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS MAY BE NEEDED
WITH THE FULL FORECAST PACKAGE SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER-MID 80S BOTH DAY, POSSIBLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
WELL INLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50/NEAR 60 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES SUNDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC, HELPING TO ADVECT
HIGHER MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER-700 HPA THETA-E INTO THE REGION. THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL WITH 500 HPA HEIGHTS REACHING 593 DM AND THE CENTER OF
THE 850 HPA ANTICYCLONE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO
LIMIT THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH FAIRLY WARM
MID-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S; COOLER
AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING
AND MOVE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS WHICH WILL
SUPPORT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL
INCREASE BACK INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT
THE MAIN WIND DRIVER IS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATED AND NOT
MIXING...FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
LOW 20 KT RANGE AT TIME AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE
NEEDED. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 FT OUT AROUND 20 NM MAINLY OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST...AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN LESS THAN
IDEAL CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO SATURDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL KEEP THE SEA STATE RATHER CHOPPY WITH SEA
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND 4-5 FT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 5-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...MAINLY FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG WHERE SEA BREACH THE 6 FT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
A BIT IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15
KT OR SO. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AN
5-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JAQ/BSH/ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 230234
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1034 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A DRY
AIRMASS AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN FEW IF
ANY CLOUDS...AND EXPECT RATHER COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA GIVEN A SYNOPTIC NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WHILE WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS...THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN A MORE
MIXED/COUPLED ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND WHERE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT LIKELY ONLY FALL TO LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
WILL STEADILY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK/SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH FEATURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTS, WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
BEACHES BY SUNDAY. THE 22/12Z NAM/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND PUSHING ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT THIS LOOKS A BIT BULLISH WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SREF MEMBERS AND THE 22/00Z ECMWF SHOWING MUCH DRIER SOLUTIONS.
PREFER TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE DRIER ECMWF/SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH
IS ALSO SIMILAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS KEEPS MENTIONABLE POPS
OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE ADJACENT
GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. IF THE 22/12Z ECMWF AND 22/21Z SREF TREND
WETTER...THAN THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS MAY BE NEEDED
WITH THE FULL FORECAST PACKAGE SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER-MID 80S BOTH DAY, POSSIBLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
WELL INLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50/NEAR 60 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES SUNDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC, HELPING TO ADVECT
HIGHER MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER-700 HPA THETA-E INTO THE REGION. THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL WITH 500 HPA HEIGHTS REACHING 593 DM AND THE CENTER OF
THE 850 HPA ANTICYCLONE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO
LIMIT THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH FAIRLY WARM
MID-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S; COOLER
AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING
AND MOVE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS WHICH WILL
SUPPORT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL
INCREASE BACK INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT
THE MAIN WIND DRIVER IS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATED AND NOT
MIXING...FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
LOW 20 KT RANGE AT TIME AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE
NEEDED. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 FT OUT AROUND 20 NM MAINLY OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST...AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN LESS THAN
IDEAL CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO SATURDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL KEEP THE SEA STATE RATHER CHOPPY WITH SEA
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND 4-5 FT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 5-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...MAINLY FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG WHERE SEA BREACH THE 6 FT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
A BIT IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15
KT OR SO. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AN
5-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JAQ/BSH/ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 230234
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1034 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A DRY
AIRMASS AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN FEW IF
ANY CLOUDS...AND EXPECT RATHER COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA GIVEN A SYNOPTIC NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WHILE WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS...THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN A MORE
MIXED/COUPLED ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND WHERE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT LIKELY ONLY FALL TO LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
WILL STEADILY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK/SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH FEATURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTS, WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
BEACHES BY SUNDAY. THE 22/12Z NAM/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND PUSHING ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT THIS LOOKS A BIT BULLISH WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SREF MEMBERS AND THE 22/00Z ECMWF SHOWING MUCH DRIER SOLUTIONS.
PREFER TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE DRIER ECMWF/SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH
IS ALSO SIMILAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS KEEPS MENTIONABLE POPS
OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE ADJACENT
GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. IF THE 22/12Z ECMWF AND 22/21Z SREF TREND
WETTER...THAN THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS MAY BE NEEDED
WITH THE FULL FORECAST PACKAGE SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER-MID 80S BOTH DAY, POSSIBLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
WELL INLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50/NEAR 60 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES SUNDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC, HELPING TO ADVECT
HIGHER MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER-700 HPA THETA-E INTO THE REGION. THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL WITH 500 HPA HEIGHTS REACHING 593 DM AND THE CENTER OF
THE 850 HPA ANTICYCLONE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO
LIMIT THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH FAIRLY WARM
MID-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S; COOLER
AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING
AND MOVE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS WHICH WILL
SUPPORT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL
INCREASE BACK INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT
THE MAIN WIND DRIVER IS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATED AND NOT
MIXING...FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
LOW 20 KT RANGE AT TIME AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE
NEEDED. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 FT OUT AROUND 20 NM MAINLY OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST...AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN LESS THAN
IDEAL CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO SATURDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL KEEP THE SEA STATE RATHER CHOPPY WITH SEA
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND 4-5 FT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 5-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...MAINLY FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG WHERE SEA BREACH THE 6 FT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
A BIT IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15
KT OR SO. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AN
5-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JAQ/BSH/ST


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KFFC 230231
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1031 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...

CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET AND PLEASANT FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SFC HIGH
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TOMORROW RESULTING
IN A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH...THOUGH THERMAL PROFILES STAY
DRY ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU. TEMPS WILL
INITIALLY BE COOL AGAIN TONIGHT /ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM/ THEN
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ENHANCED MOISTURE STAYS WEST OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
THIS ATYPICALLY NICE LATE MAY PERIOD.

BAKER

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER FL SUNDAY AM COMBINED WITH SURFACE
RIDGE OFF THE NC COAST WILL KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY.
TEMPS STILL RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

MEMORIAL DAY THRU TUESDAY.
BY EARLY MONDAY...BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFT
FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FETCH OFF OF THE
GULF BY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD IN TERMS OF POP CHANCES
BY MONDAY AS A RESULT. GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS
COVERAGE VS THE ECMWF FOR MONDAY EVEN THOUGH THE GENERAL PATTERN
IS SIMILAR BUT BOTH REMAIN IN THE HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW. DONT BELIEVE IT WILL BE A RAIN OUT BUT FOLKS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE RADAR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE OF THE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH LOOKS TO PERSIST EACH DAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

WED THRU FRIDAY.
FOR NOW...BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON COVERAGE BUT HEIGHT RISES ENSUE WED THROUGH
FRIDAY THUS REDUCING OVERALL COVERAGE BACK TO NEAR CLIMO. TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE VERY NEAR CLIMO WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEXT WEEK CREEPING SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.

30

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ONLY SOME AFTERNOON CU FIELD OF FEW 4-5
KFT. WINDS HAVE BEEN PROBLEMATIC WITH NW TO NE FLOW BUT SHOULD
SETTLE OUT PREDOMINATELY EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THAT
WAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  83  56  83 /   0   0  10   5
ATLANTA         58  81  62  82 /   0   0  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     50  77  55  77 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  83  59  83 /   0   0  10   5
COLUMBUS        57  85  64  86 /   0   0  10  10
GAINESVILLE     55  80  57  80 /   0   0  10   5
MACON           55  85  60  86 /   0   0   5  10
ROME            51  83  57  83 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  82  57  83 /   0   0  10   5
VIDALIA         59  86  63  86 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KCHS 230010
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
810 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A DRY
AIRMASS AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN FEW IF
ANY CLOUDS...AND EXPECT RATHER COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA GIVEN A SYNOPTIC NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WHILE WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS...THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN A MORE
MIXED/COUPLED ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND WHERE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT LIKELY ONLY FALL TO LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
WILL STEADILY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK/SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH FEATURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTS, WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
BEACHES BY SUNDAY. THE 22/12Z NAM/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND PUSHING ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT THIS LOOKS A BIT BULLISH WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SREF MEMBERS AND THE 22/00Z ECMWF SHOWING MUCH DRIER SOLUTIONS.
PREFER TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE DRIER ECMWF/SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH
IS ALSO SIMILAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS KEEPS MENTIONABLE POPS
OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE ADJACENT
GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. IF THE 22/12Z ECMWF AND 22/21Z SREF TREND
WETTER...THAN THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS MAY BE NEEDED
WITH THE FULL FORECAST PACKAGE SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER-MID 80S BOTH DAY, POSSIBLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
WELL INLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50/NEAR 60 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES SUNDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC, HELPING TO ADVECT
HIGHER MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER-700 HPA THETA-E INTO THE REGION. THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL WITH 500 HPA HEIGHTS REACHING 593 DM AND THE CENTER OF
THE 850 HPA ANTICYCLONE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO
LIMIT THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH FAIRLY WARM
MID-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S; COOLER
AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING
AND MOVE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING MODESTLY PINCHED GRADIENT ALONG THE
COAST AND CONTINUE TO FEED ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW. WINDS ALONG
THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE MAY BRIEFLY TURN MORE EASTERLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS WHICH WILL
SUPPORT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY DIMINISH
BACK TO 10-15 KT THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING BACK INTO THE
15-20 KT RANGE LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE MAIN WIND DRIVER IS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATED AND NOT MIXING...FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
THAT GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE AT TIME AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NEEDED. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 FT
OUT AROUND 20 NM MAINLY OFF THE GEORGIA COAST...AND 4-5 FT BEYOND
20 NM.

SATURDAY...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN LESS THAN
IDEAL CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO SATURDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL KEEP THE SEA STATE RATHER CHOPPY WITH SEA
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND 4-5 FT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 5-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...MAINLY FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG WHERE SEA BREACH THE 6 FT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
A BIT IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15
KT OR SO. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AN
5-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...BSH/ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 230010
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
810 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A DRY
AIRMASS AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN FEW IF
ANY CLOUDS...AND EXPECT RATHER COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA GIVEN A SYNOPTIC NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WHILE WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS...THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN A MORE
MIXED/COUPLED ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND WHERE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT LIKELY ONLY FALL TO LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
WILL STEADILY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK/SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH FEATURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTS, WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
BEACHES BY SUNDAY. THE 22/12Z NAM/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND PUSHING ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT THIS LOOKS A BIT BULLISH WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SREF MEMBERS AND THE 22/00Z ECMWF SHOWING MUCH DRIER SOLUTIONS.
PREFER TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE DRIER ECMWF/SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH
IS ALSO SIMILAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS KEEPS MENTIONABLE POPS
OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE ADJACENT
GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. IF THE 22/12Z ECMWF AND 22/21Z SREF TREND
WETTER...THAN THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS MAY BE NEEDED
WITH THE FULL FORECAST PACKAGE SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER-MID 80S BOTH DAY, POSSIBLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
WELL INLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50/NEAR 60 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES SUNDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC, HELPING TO ADVECT
HIGHER MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER-700 HPA THETA-E INTO THE REGION. THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL WITH 500 HPA HEIGHTS REACHING 593 DM AND THE CENTER OF
THE 850 HPA ANTICYCLONE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO
LIMIT THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH FAIRLY WARM
MID-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S; COOLER
AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING
AND MOVE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING MODESTLY PINCHED GRADIENT ALONG THE
COAST AND CONTINUE TO FEED ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW. WINDS ALONG
THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE MAY BRIEFLY TURN MORE EASTERLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS WHICH WILL
SUPPORT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY DIMINISH
BACK TO 10-15 KT THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING BACK INTO THE
15-20 KT RANGE LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE MAIN WIND DRIVER IS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATED AND NOT MIXING...FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
THAT GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE AT TIME AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NEEDED. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 FT
OUT AROUND 20 NM MAINLY OFF THE GEORGIA COAST...AND 4-5 FT BEYOND
20 NM.

SATURDAY...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN LESS THAN
IDEAL CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO SATURDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL KEEP THE SEA STATE RATHER CHOPPY WITH SEA
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND 4-5 FT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 5-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...MAINLY FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG WHERE SEA BREACH THE 6 FT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
A BIT IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15
KT OR SO. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AN
5-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...BSH/ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 230010
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
810 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A DRY
AIRMASS AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN FEW IF
ANY CLOUDS...AND EXPECT RATHER COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA GIVEN A SYNOPTIC NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WHILE WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS...THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN A MORE
MIXED/COUPLED ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND WHERE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT LIKELY ONLY FALL TO LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
WILL STEADILY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK/SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH FEATURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTS, WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
BEACHES BY SUNDAY. THE 22/12Z NAM/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND PUSHING ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT THIS LOOKS A BIT BULLISH WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SREF MEMBERS AND THE 22/00Z ECMWF SHOWING MUCH DRIER SOLUTIONS.
PREFER TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE DRIER ECMWF/SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH
IS ALSO SIMILAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS KEEPS MENTIONABLE POPS
OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE ADJACENT
GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. IF THE 22/12Z ECMWF AND 22/21Z SREF TREND
WETTER...THAN THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS MAY BE NEEDED
WITH THE FULL FORECAST PACKAGE SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER-MID 80S BOTH DAY, POSSIBLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
WELL INLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50/NEAR 60 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES SUNDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC, HELPING TO ADVECT
HIGHER MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER-700 HPA THETA-E INTO THE REGION. THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL WITH 500 HPA HEIGHTS REACHING 593 DM AND THE CENTER OF
THE 850 HPA ANTICYCLONE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO
LIMIT THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH FAIRLY WARM
MID-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S; COOLER
AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING
AND MOVE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING MODESTLY PINCHED GRADIENT ALONG THE
COAST AND CONTINUE TO FEED ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW. WINDS ALONG
THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE MAY BRIEFLY TURN MORE EASTERLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS WHICH WILL
SUPPORT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY DIMINISH
BACK TO 10-15 KT THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING BACK INTO THE
15-20 KT RANGE LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE MAIN WIND DRIVER IS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATED AND NOT MIXING...FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
THAT GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE AT TIME AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NEEDED. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 FT
OUT AROUND 20 NM MAINLY OFF THE GEORGIA COAST...AND 4-5 FT BEYOND
20 NM.

SATURDAY...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN LESS THAN
IDEAL CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO SATURDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL KEEP THE SEA STATE RATHER CHOPPY WITH SEA
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND 4-5 FT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 5-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...MAINLY FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG WHERE SEA BREACH THE 6 FT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
A BIT IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15
KT OR SO. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AN
5-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...BSH/ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 230010
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
810 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A DRY
AIRMASS AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN FEW IF
ANY CLOUDS...AND EXPECT RATHER COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA GIVEN A SYNOPTIC NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WHILE WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS...THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN A MORE
MIXED/COUPLED ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND WHERE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT LIKELY ONLY FALL TO LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
WILL STEADILY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK/SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH FEATURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTS, WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
BEACHES BY SUNDAY. THE 22/12Z NAM/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND PUSHING ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT THIS LOOKS A BIT BULLISH WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SREF MEMBERS AND THE 22/00Z ECMWF SHOWING MUCH DRIER SOLUTIONS.
PREFER TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE DRIER ECMWF/SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH
IS ALSO SIMILAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS KEEPS MENTIONABLE POPS
OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE ADJACENT
GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. IF THE 22/12Z ECMWF AND 22/21Z SREF TREND
WETTER...THAN THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS MAY BE NEEDED
WITH THE FULL FORECAST PACKAGE SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER-MID 80S BOTH DAY, POSSIBLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
WELL INLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50/NEAR 60 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES SUNDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC, HELPING TO ADVECT
HIGHER MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER-700 HPA THETA-E INTO THE REGION. THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL WITH 500 HPA HEIGHTS REACHING 593 DM AND THE CENTER OF
THE 850 HPA ANTICYCLONE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO
LIMIT THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH FAIRLY WARM
MID-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S; COOLER
AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING
AND MOVE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING MODESTLY PINCHED GRADIENT ALONG THE
COAST AND CONTINUE TO FEED ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW. WINDS ALONG
THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE MAY BRIEFLY TURN MORE EASTERLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS WHICH WILL
SUPPORT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY DIMINISH
BACK TO 10-15 KT THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING BACK INTO THE
15-20 KT RANGE LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE MAIN WIND DRIVER IS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATED AND NOT MIXING...FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
THAT GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE AT TIME AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NEEDED. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 FT
OUT AROUND 20 NM MAINLY OFF THE GEORGIA COAST...AND 4-5 FT BEYOND
20 NM.

SATURDAY...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN LESS THAN
IDEAL CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO SATURDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL KEEP THE SEA STATE RATHER CHOPPY WITH SEA
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND 4-5 FT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 5-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...MAINLY FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG WHERE SEA BREACH THE 6 FT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
A BIT IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15
KT OR SO. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AN
5-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...BSH/ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 230010
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
810 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A DRY
AIRMASS AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN FEW IF
ANY CLOUDS...AND EXPECT RATHER COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA GIVEN A SYNOPTIC NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WHILE WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS...THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN A MORE
MIXED/COUPLED ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND WHERE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT LIKELY ONLY FALL TO LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
WILL STEADILY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK/SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH FEATURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTS, WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
BEACHES BY SUNDAY. THE 22/12Z NAM/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND PUSHING ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT THIS LOOKS A BIT BULLISH WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SREF MEMBERS AND THE 22/00Z ECMWF SHOWING MUCH DRIER SOLUTIONS.
PREFER TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE DRIER ECMWF/SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH
IS ALSO SIMILAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS KEEPS MENTIONABLE POPS
OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE ADJACENT
GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. IF THE 22/12Z ECMWF AND 22/21Z SREF TREND
WETTER...THAN THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS MAY BE NEEDED
WITH THE FULL FORECAST PACKAGE SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER-MID 80S BOTH DAY, POSSIBLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
WELL INLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50/NEAR 60 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES SUNDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC, HELPING TO ADVECT
HIGHER MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER-700 HPA THETA-E INTO THE REGION. THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL WITH 500 HPA HEIGHTS REACHING 593 DM AND THE CENTER OF
THE 850 HPA ANTICYCLONE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO
LIMIT THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH FAIRLY WARM
MID-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S; COOLER
AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING
AND MOVE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING MODESTLY PINCHED GRADIENT ALONG THE
COAST AND CONTINUE TO FEED ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW. WINDS ALONG
THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE MAY BRIEFLY TURN MORE EASTERLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS WHICH WILL
SUPPORT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY DIMINISH
BACK TO 10-15 KT THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING BACK INTO THE
15-20 KT RANGE LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE MAIN WIND DRIVER IS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATED AND NOT MIXING...FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
THAT GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE AT TIME AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NEEDED. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 FT
OUT AROUND 20 NM MAINLY OFF THE GEORGIA COAST...AND 4-5 FT BEYOND
20 NM.

SATURDAY...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN LESS THAN
IDEAL CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO SATURDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL KEEP THE SEA STATE RATHER CHOPPY WITH SEA
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND 4-5 FT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 5-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...MAINLY FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG WHERE SEA BREACH THE 6 FT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
A BIT IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15
KT OR SO. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AN
5-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...BSH/ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 230010
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
810 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A DRY
AIRMASS AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN FEW IF
ANY CLOUDS...AND EXPECT RATHER COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA GIVEN A SYNOPTIC NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WHILE WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS...THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN A MORE
MIXED/COUPLED ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND WHERE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT LIKELY ONLY FALL TO LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
WILL STEADILY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK/SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH FEATURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTS, WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
BEACHES BY SUNDAY. THE 22/12Z NAM/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND PUSHING ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT THIS LOOKS A BIT BULLISH WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SREF MEMBERS AND THE 22/00Z ECMWF SHOWING MUCH DRIER SOLUTIONS.
PREFER TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE DRIER ECMWF/SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH
IS ALSO SIMILAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS KEEPS MENTIONABLE POPS
OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE ADJACENT
GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. IF THE 22/12Z ECMWF AND 22/21Z SREF TREND
WETTER...THAN THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS MAY BE NEEDED
WITH THE FULL FORECAST PACKAGE SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER-MID 80S BOTH DAY, POSSIBLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
WELL INLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50/NEAR 60 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES SUNDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC, HELPING TO ADVECT
HIGHER MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER-700 HPA THETA-E INTO THE REGION. THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL WITH 500 HPA HEIGHTS REACHING 593 DM AND THE CENTER OF
THE 850 HPA ANTICYCLONE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO
LIMIT THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH FAIRLY WARM
MID-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S; COOLER
AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING
AND MOVE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING MODESTLY PINCHED GRADIENT ALONG THE
COAST AND CONTINUE TO FEED ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW. WINDS ALONG
THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE MAY BRIEFLY TURN MORE EASTERLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS WHICH WILL
SUPPORT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY DIMINISH
BACK TO 10-15 KT THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING BACK INTO THE
15-20 KT RANGE LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE MAIN WIND DRIVER IS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATED AND NOT MIXING...FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
THAT GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE AT TIME AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NEEDED. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 FT
OUT AROUND 20 NM MAINLY OFF THE GEORGIA COAST...AND 4-5 FT BEYOND
20 NM.

SATURDAY...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN LESS THAN
IDEAL CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO SATURDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL KEEP THE SEA STATE RATHER CHOPPY WITH SEA
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND 4-5 FT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 5-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...MAINLY FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG WHERE SEA BREACH THE 6 FT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
A BIT IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15
KT OR SO. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AN
5-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...BSH/ST



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCAE 222345
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
745 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE OVER DELMARVA
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT PROVIDING DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN
STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING. RADIATION SCHEME SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW MOS CONSENSUS...UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. THE MODELS MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA
ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. ALL OF THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST..BUT NOTICED THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE PAST RUN OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BUILD THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKLY SLIGHTLY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OFFSHORE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE CIRCULATING AN
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN
SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A
LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
INHIBIT FOG FORMATION AT ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE E/NE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON RANGING FROM 7 TO 12 KTS. POSSIBLY A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77



000
FXUS62 KCAE 222345
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
745 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE OVER DELMARVA
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT PROVIDING DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN
STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING. RADIATION SCHEME SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW MOS CONSENSUS...UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. THE MODELS MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA
ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. ALL OF THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST..BUT NOTICED THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE PAST RUN OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BUILD THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKLY SLIGHTLY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OFFSHORE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE CIRCULATING AN
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN
SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A
LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
INHIBIT FOG FORMATION AT ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE E/NE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON RANGING FROM 7 TO 12 KTS. POSSIBLY A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77



000
FXUS62 KCAE 222345
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
745 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE OVER DELMARVA
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT PROVIDING DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN
STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING. RADIATION SCHEME SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW MOS CONSENSUS...UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. THE MODELS MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA
ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. ALL OF THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST..BUT NOTICED THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE PAST RUN OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BUILD THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKLY SLIGHTLY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OFFSHORE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE CIRCULATING AN
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN
SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A
LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
INHIBIT FOG FORMATION AT ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE E/NE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON RANGING FROM 7 TO 12 KTS. POSSIBLY A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 222345
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
745 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE OVER DELMARVA
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT PROVIDING DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN
STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING. RADIATION SCHEME SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW MOS CONSENSUS...UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. THE MODELS MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA
ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. ALL OF THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST..BUT NOTICED THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE PAST RUN OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BUILD THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKLY SLIGHTLY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OFFSHORE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE CIRCULATING AN
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN
SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A
LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
INHIBIT FOG FORMATION AT ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE E/NE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON RANGING FROM 7 TO 12 KTS. POSSIBLY A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KFFC 222337
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
737 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET AND PLEASANT FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SFC HIGH
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TOMORROW RESULTING
IN A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH...THOUGH THERMAL PROFILES STAY
DRY ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU. TEMPS WILL
INITIALLY BE COOL AGAIN TONIGHT /ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM/ THEN
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ENHANCED MOISTURE STAYS WEST OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
THIS ATYPICALLY NICE LATE MAY PERIOD.

BAKER

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER FL SUNDAY AM COMBINED WITH SURFACE
RIDGE OFF THE NC COAST WILL KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY.
TEMPS STILL RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

MEMORIAL DAY THRU TUESDAY.
BY EARLY MONDAY...BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFT
FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FETCH OFF OF THE
GULF BY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD IN TERMS OF POP CHANCES
BY MONDAY AS A RESULT. GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS
COVERAGE VS THE ECMWF FOR MONDAY EVEN THOUGH THE GENERAL PATTERN
IS SIMILAR BUT BOTH REMAIN IN THE HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW. DONT BELIEVE IT WILL BE A RAIN OUT BUT FOLKS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE RADAR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE OF THE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH LOOKS TO PERSIST EACH DAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

WED THRU FRIDAY.
FOR NOW...BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON COVERAGE BUT HEIGHT RISES ENSUE WED THROUGH
FRIDAY THUS REDUCING OVERALL COVERAGE BACK TO NEAR CLIMO. TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE VERY NEAR CLIMO WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEXT WEEK CREEPING SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ONLY SOME AFTERNOON CU FIELD OF FEW 4-5
KFT. WINDS HAVE BEEN PROBLEMATIC WITH NW TO NE FLOW BUT SHOULD
SETTLE OUT PREDOMINATELY EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THAT
WAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  83  56  83 /   0   0  10   5
ATLANTA         58  81  62  82 /   0   0  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     50  77  55  77 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  83  59  83 /   0   0  10   5
COLUMBUS        57  85  64  86 /   0   0  10  10
GAINESVILLE     55  80  57  80 /   0   0  10   5
MACON           55  85  60  86 /   0   0   5  10
ROME            51  83  57  83 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  82  57  83 /   0   0  10   5
VIDALIA         59  86  63  86 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DEESE



000
FXUS62 KFFC 222337
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
737 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET AND PLEASANT FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SFC HIGH
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TOMORROW RESULTING
IN A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH...THOUGH THERMAL PROFILES STAY
DRY ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU. TEMPS WILL
INITIALLY BE COOL AGAIN TONIGHT /ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM/ THEN
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ENHANCED MOISTURE STAYS WEST OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
THIS ATYPICALLY NICE LATE MAY PERIOD.

BAKER

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER FL SUNDAY AM COMBINED WITH SURFACE
RIDGE OFF THE NC COAST WILL KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY.
TEMPS STILL RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

MEMORIAL DAY THRU TUESDAY.
BY EARLY MONDAY...BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFT
FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FETCH OFF OF THE
GULF BY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD IN TERMS OF POP CHANCES
BY MONDAY AS A RESULT. GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS
COVERAGE VS THE ECMWF FOR MONDAY EVEN THOUGH THE GENERAL PATTERN
IS SIMILAR BUT BOTH REMAIN IN THE HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW. DONT BELIEVE IT WILL BE A RAIN OUT BUT FOLKS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE RADAR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE OF THE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH LOOKS TO PERSIST EACH DAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

WED THRU FRIDAY.
FOR NOW...BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON COVERAGE BUT HEIGHT RISES ENSUE WED THROUGH
FRIDAY THUS REDUCING OVERALL COVERAGE BACK TO NEAR CLIMO. TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE VERY NEAR CLIMO WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEXT WEEK CREEPING SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ONLY SOME AFTERNOON CU FIELD OF FEW 4-5
KFT. WINDS HAVE BEEN PROBLEMATIC WITH NW TO NE FLOW BUT SHOULD
SETTLE OUT PREDOMINATELY EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THAT
WAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  83  56  83 /   0   0  10   5
ATLANTA         58  81  62  82 /   0   0  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     50  77  55  77 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  83  59  83 /   0   0  10   5
COLUMBUS        57  85  64  86 /   0   0  10  10
GAINESVILLE     55  80  57  80 /   0   0  10   5
MACON           55  85  60  86 /   0   0   5  10
ROME            51  83  57  83 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  82  57  83 /   0   0  10   5
VIDALIA         59  86  63  86 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 222337
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
737 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET AND PLEASANT FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SFC HIGH
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TOMORROW RESULTING
IN A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH...THOUGH THERMAL PROFILES STAY
DRY ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU. TEMPS WILL
INITIALLY BE COOL AGAIN TONIGHT /ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM/ THEN
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ENHANCED MOISTURE STAYS WEST OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
THIS ATYPICALLY NICE LATE MAY PERIOD.

BAKER

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER FL SUNDAY AM COMBINED WITH SURFACE
RIDGE OFF THE NC COAST WILL KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY.
TEMPS STILL RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

MEMORIAL DAY THRU TUESDAY.
BY EARLY MONDAY...BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFT
FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FETCH OFF OF THE
GULF BY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD IN TERMS OF POP CHANCES
BY MONDAY AS A RESULT. GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS
COVERAGE VS THE ECMWF FOR MONDAY EVEN THOUGH THE GENERAL PATTERN
IS SIMILAR BUT BOTH REMAIN IN THE HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW. DONT BELIEVE IT WILL BE A RAIN OUT BUT FOLKS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE RADAR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE OF THE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH LOOKS TO PERSIST EACH DAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

WED THRU FRIDAY.
FOR NOW...BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON COVERAGE BUT HEIGHT RISES ENSUE WED THROUGH
FRIDAY THUS REDUCING OVERALL COVERAGE BACK TO NEAR CLIMO. TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE VERY NEAR CLIMO WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEXT WEEK CREEPING SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ONLY SOME AFTERNOON CU FIELD OF FEW 4-5
KFT. WINDS HAVE BEEN PROBLEMATIC WITH NW TO NE FLOW BUT SHOULD
SETTLE OUT PREDOMINATELY EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THAT
WAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  83  56  83 /   0   0  10   5
ATLANTA         58  81  62  82 /   0   0  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     50  77  55  77 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  83  59  83 /   0   0  10   5
COLUMBUS        57  85  64  86 /   0   0  10  10
GAINESVILLE     55  80  57  80 /   0   0  10   5
MACON           55  85  60  86 /   0   0   5  10
ROME            51  83  57  83 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  82  57  83 /   0   0  10   5
VIDALIA         59  86  63  86 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 222337
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
737 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET AND PLEASANT FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SFC HIGH
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TOMORROW RESULTING
IN A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH...THOUGH THERMAL PROFILES STAY
DRY ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU. TEMPS WILL
INITIALLY BE COOL AGAIN TONIGHT /ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM/ THEN
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ENHANCED MOISTURE STAYS WEST OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
THIS ATYPICALLY NICE LATE MAY PERIOD.

BAKER

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER FL SUNDAY AM COMBINED WITH SURFACE
RIDGE OFF THE NC COAST WILL KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY.
TEMPS STILL RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

MEMORIAL DAY THRU TUESDAY.
BY EARLY MONDAY...BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFT
FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FETCH OFF OF THE
GULF BY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD IN TERMS OF POP CHANCES
BY MONDAY AS A RESULT. GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS
COVERAGE VS THE ECMWF FOR MONDAY EVEN THOUGH THE GENERAL PATTERN
IS SIMILAR BUT BOTH REMAIN IN THE HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW. DONT BELIEVE IT WILL BE A RAIN OUT BUT FOLKS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE RADAR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE OF THE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH LOOKS TO PERSIST EACH DAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

WED THRU FRIDAY.
FOR NOW...BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON COVERAGE BUT HEIGHT RISES ENSUE WED THROUGH
FRIDAY THUS REDUCING OVERALL COVERAGE BACK TO NEAR CLIMO. TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE VERY NEAR CLIMO WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEXT WEEK CREEPING SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ONLY SOME AFTERNOON CU FIELD OF FEW 4-5
KFT. WINDS HAVE BEEN PROBLEMATIC WITH NW TO NE FLOW BUT SHOULD
SETTLE OUT PREDOMINATELY EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THAT
WAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  83  56  83 /   0   0  10   5
ATLANTA         58  81  62  82 /   0   0  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     50  77  55  77 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  83  59  83 /   0   0  10   5
COLUMBUS        57  85  64  86 /   0   0  10  10
GAINESVILLE     55  80  57  80 /   0   0  10   5
MACON           55  85  60  86 /   0   0   5  10
ROME            51  83  57  83 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  82  57  83 /   0   0  10   5
VIDALIA         59  86  63  86 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 222337
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
737 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET AND PLEASANT FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SFC HIGH
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TOMORROW RESULTING
IN A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH...THOUGH THERMAL PROFILES STAY
DRY ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU. TEMPS WILL
INITIALLY BE COOL AGAIN TONIGHT /ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM/ THEN
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ENHANCED MOISTURE STAYS WEST OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
THIS ATYPICALLY NICE LATE MAY PERIOD.

BAKER

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER FL SUNDAY AM COMBINED WITH SURFACE
RIDGE OFF THE NC COAST WILL KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY.
TEMPS STILL RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

MEMORIAL DAY THRU TUESDAY.
BY EARLY MONDAY...BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFT
FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FETCH OFF OF THE
GULF BY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD IN TERMS OF POP CHANCES
BY MONDAY AS A RESULT. GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS
COVERAGE VS THE ECMWF FOR MONDAY EVEN THOUGH THE GENERAL PATTERN
IS SIMILAR BUT BOTH REMAIN IN THE HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW. DONT BELIEVE IT WILL BE A RAIN OUT BUT FOLKS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE RADAR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE OF THE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH LOOKS TO PERSIST EACH DAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

WED THRU FRIDAY.
FOR NOW...BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON COVERAGE BUT HEIGHT RISES ENSUE WED THROUGH
FRIDAY THUS REDUCING OVERALL COVERAGE BACK TO NEAR CLIMO. TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE VERY NEAR CLIMO WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEXT WEEK CREEPING SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ONLY SOME AFTERNOON CU FIELD OF FEW 4-5
KFT. WINDS HAVE BEEN PROBLEMATIC WITH NW TO NE FLOW BUT SHOULD
SETTLE OUT PREDOMINATELY EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THAT
WAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  83  56  83 /   0   0  10   5
ATLANTA         58  81  62  82 /   0   0  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     50  77  55  77 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  83  59  83 /   0   0  10   5
COLUMBUS        57  85  64  86 /   0   0  10  10
GAINESVILLE     55  80  57  80 /   0   0  10   5
MACON           55  85  60  86 /   0   0   5  10
ROME            51  83  57  83 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  82  57  83 /   0   0  10   5
VIDALIA         59  86  63  86 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 222337
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
737 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET AND PLEASANT FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SFC HIGH
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TOMORROW RESULTING
IN A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH...THOUGH THERMAL PROFILES STAY
DRY ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU. TEMPS WILL
INITIALLY BE COOL AGAIN TONIGHT /ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM/ THEN
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ENHANCED MOISTURE STAYS WEST OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
THIS ATYPICALLY NICE LATE MAY PERIOD.

BAKER

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER FL SUNDAY AM COMBINED WITH SURFACE
RIDGE OFF THE NC COAST WILL KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY.
TEMPS STILL RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

MEMORIAL DAY THRU TUESDAY.
BY EARLY MONDAY...BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFT
FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FETCH OFF OF THE
GULF BY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD IN TERMS OF POP CHANCES
BY MONDAY AS A RESULT. GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS
COVERAGE VS THE ECMWF FOR MONDAY EVEN THOUGH THE GENERAL PATTERN
IS SIMILAR BUT BOTH REMAIN IN THE HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW. DONT BELIEVE IT WILL BE A RAIN OUT BUT FOLKS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE RADAR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE OF THE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH LOOKS TO PERSIST EACH DAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

WED THRU FRIDAY.
FOR NOW...BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON COVERAGE BUT HEIGHT RISES ENSUE WED THROUGH
FRIDAY THUS REDUCING OVERALL COVERAGE BACK TO NEAR CLIMO. TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE VERY NEAR CLIMO WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEXT WEEK CREEPING SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ONLY SOME AFTERNOON CU FIELD OF FEW 4-5
KFT. WINDS HAVE BEEN PROBLEMATIC WITH NW TO NE FLOW BUT SHOULD
SETTLE OUT PREDOMINATELY EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THAT
WAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  83  56  83 /   0   0  10   5
ATLANTA         58  81  62  82 /   0   0  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     50  77  55  77 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  83  59  83 /   0   0  10   5
COLUMBUS        57  85  64  86 /   0   0  10  10
GAINESVILLE     55  80  57  80 /   0   0  10   5
MACON           55  85  60  86 /   0   0   5  10
ROME            51  83  57  83 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  82  57  83 /   0   0  10   5
VIDALIA         59  86  63  86 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 221938
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
338 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015



.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET AND PLEASANT FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SFC HIGH
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TOMORROW RESULTING
IN A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH...THOUGH THERMAL PROFILES STAY
DRY ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU. TEMPS WILL
INITIALLY BE COOL AGAIN TONIGHT /ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM/ THEN
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ENHANCED MOISTURE STAYS WEST OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
THIS ATYPICALLY NICE LATE MAY PERIOD.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER FL SUNDAY AM COMBINED WITH SURFACE
RIDGE OFF THE NC COAST WILL KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY.
TEMPS STILL RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

MEMORIAL DAY THRU TUESDAY.
BY EARLY MONDAY...BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFT
FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FETCH OFF OF THE
GULF BY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD IN TERMS OF POP CHANCES
BY MONDAY AS A RESULT. GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS
COVERAGE VS THE ECMWF FOR MONDAY EVEN THOUGH THE GENERAL PATTERN
IS SIMILAR BUT BOTH REMAIN IN THE HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW. DONT BELIEVE IT WILL BE A RAIN OUT BUT FOLKS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE RADAR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE OF THE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH LOOKS TO PERSIST EACH DAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

WED THRU FRIDAY.
FOR NOW...BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON COVERAGE BUT HEIGHT RISES ENSUE WED THROUGH
FRIDAY THUS REDUCING OVERALL COVERAGE BACK TO NEAR CLIMO. TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE VERY NEAR CLIMO WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEXT WEEK CREEPING SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ONLY SOME AFTERNOON CU FIELD OF FEW 4-5
KFT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS ARE INITIALLY
TRICKY WITH MAINLY NE TO EAST 5-7 KTS WITH SOME INTERMITTENT
WAVERING TO NORTH OR NW NEAR NORTHERN SITES. SHOULD BECOME CALM
TO LIGHT EAST OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 7-10 KTS SATURDAY OUT OF
THE EAST/SE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE INITIAL WINDS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  83  56  83 /   0   0  10   5
ATLANTA         58  81  62  82 /   0   0  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     50  77  55  77 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  83  59  83 /   0   0  10   5
COLUMBUS        57  85  64  86 /   0   0  10  10
GAINESVILLE     55  80  57  80 /   0   0  10   5
MACON           55  85  60  86 /   0   0   5  10
ROME            51  83  57  83 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  82  57  83 /   0   0  10   5
VIDALIA         59  86  63  86 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS62 KFFC 221938
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
338 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015



.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET AND PLEASANT FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SFC HIGH
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TOMORROW RESULTING
IN A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH...THOUGH THERMAL PROFILES STAY
DRY ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU. TEMPS WILL
INITIALLY BE COOL AGAIN TONIGHT /ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM/ THEN
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ENHANCED MOISTURE STAYS WEST OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
THIS ATYPICALLY NICE LATE MAY PERIOD.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER FL SUNDAY AM COMBINED WITH SURFACE
RIDGE OFF THE NC COAST WILL KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY.
TEMPS STILL RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

MEMORIAL DAY THRU TUESDAY.
BY EARLY MONDAY...BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFT
FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FETCH OFF OF THE
GULF BY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD IN TERMS OF POP CHANCES
BY MONDAY AS A RESULT. GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS
COVERAGE VS THE ECMWF FOR MONDAY EVEN THOUGH THE GENERAL PATTERN
IS SIMILAR BUT BOTH REMAIN IN THE HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW. DONT BELIEVE IT WILL BE A RAIN OUT BUT FOLKS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE RADAR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE OF THE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH LOOKS TO PERSIST EACH DAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

WED THRU FRIDAY.
FOR NOW...BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON COVERAGE BUT HEIGHT RISES ENSUE WED THROUGH
FRIDAY THUS REDUCING OVERALL COVERAGE BACK TO NEAR CLIMO. TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE VERY NEAR CLIMO WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEXT WEEK CREEPING SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ONLY SOME AFTERNOON CU FIELD OF FEW 4-5
KFT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS ARE INITIALLY
TRICKY WITH MAINLY NE TO EAST 5-7 KTS WITH SOME INTERMITTENT
WAVERING TO NORTH OR NW NEAR NORTHERN SITES. SHOULD BECOME CALM
TO LIGHT EAST OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 7-10 KTS SATURDAY OUT OF
THE EAST/SE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE INITIAL WINDS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  83  56  83 /   0   0  10   5
ATLANTA         58  81  62  82 /   0   0  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     50  77  55  77 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  83  59  83 /   0   0  10   5
COLUMBUS        57  85  64  86 /   0   0  10  10
GAINESVILLE     55  80  57  80 /   0   0  10   5
MACON           55  85  60  86 /   0   0   5  10
ROME            51  83  57  83 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  82  57  83 /   0   0  10   5
VIDALIA         59  86  63  86 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS62 KCHS 221912
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
312 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL
HELP MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE
FORECAST IS DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP DRY AIR AND A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. GIVEN THE WAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALIGNS...AREAS WELL INLAND HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF COMPLETE
DECOUPLING WHILE LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST MAY STAY A BIT MIXED.
THE RESULT WILL BE OUR COOLEST NIGHT IN ABOUT A WEEK WITH SOME MID
50S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND...RANGING TO LOW TO MID 60S RIGHT AT THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
WILL STEADILY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK/SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH FEATURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTS, WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
BEACHES BY SUNDAY. THE 22/12Z NAM/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND PUSHING ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT THIS LOOKS A BIT BULLISH WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SREF MEMBERS AND THE 22/00Z ECMWF SHOWING MUCH DRIER SOLUTIONS.
PREFER TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE DRIER ECMWF/SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH
IS ALSO SIMILAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS KEEPS MENTIONABLE POPS
OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE ADJACENT
GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. IF THE 22/12Z ECMWF AND 22/21Z SREF TREND
WETTER...THAN THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS MAY BE NEEDED
WITH THE FULL FORECAST PACKAGE SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER-MID 80S BOTH DAY, POSSIBLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
WELL INLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50/NEAR 60 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES SUNDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC, HELPING TO ADVECT
HIGHER MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER-700 HPA THETA-E INTO THE REGION. THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL WITH 500 HPA HEIGHTS REACHING 593 DM AND THE CENTER OF
THE 850 HPA ANTICYCLONE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO
LIMIT THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH FAIRLY WARM
MID-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S; COOLER
AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THIS EVENING AND MOVE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING MODESTLY PINCHED
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST AND CONTINUE TO FEED ELEVATED NORTHEAST
FLOW. WINDS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE MAY BRIEFLY TURN MORE
EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE GEORGIA
WATERS WHICH WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY DIMINISH BACK TO 10-15 KT THIS EVENING BEFORE
INCREASING BACK INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE
MAIN WIND DRIVER IS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATED AND NOT MIXING...FEEL
PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE
AT TIME AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NEEDED. SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 4 FT OUT AROUND 20 NM MAINLY OFF THE GEORGIA COAST...AND 4-5
FT BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN LESS THAN
IDEAL CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO SATURDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL KEEP THE SEA STATE RATHER CHOPPY WITH SEA
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND 4-5 FT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 5-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...MAINLY FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG WHERE SEA BREACH THE 6 FT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
A BIT IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15
KT OR SO. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AN
5-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 221912
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
312 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL
HELP MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE
FORECAST IS DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP DRY AIR AND A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. GIVEN THE WAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALIGNS...AREAS WELL INLAND HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF COMPLETE
DECOUPLING WHILE LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST MAY STAY A BIT MIXED.
THE RESULT WILL BE OUR COOLEST NIGHT IN ABOUT A WEEK WITH SOME MID
50S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND...RANGING TO LOW TO MID 60S RIGHT AT THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
WILL STEADILY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK/SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH FEATURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTS, WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
BEACHES BY SUNDAY. THE 22/12Z NAM/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND PUSHING ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT THIS LOOKS A BIT BULLISH WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SREF MEMBERS AND THE 22/00Z ECMWF SHOWING MUCH DRIER SOLUTIONS.
PREFER TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE DRIER ECMWF/SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH
IS ALSO SIMILAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS KEEPS MENTIONABLE POPS
OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE ADJACENT
GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. IF THE 22/12Z ECMWF AND 22/21Z SREF TREND
WETTER...THAN THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS MAY BE NEEDED
WITH THE FULL FORECAST PACKAGE SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER-MID 80S BOTH DAY, POSSIBLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
WELL INLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50/NEAR 60 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES SUNDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC, HELPING TO ADVECT
HIGHER MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER-700 HPA THETA-E INTO THE REGION. THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL WITH 500 HPA HEIGHTS REACHING 593 DM AND THE CENTER OF
THE 850 HPA ANTICYCLONE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO
LIMIT THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH FAIRLY WARM
MID-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S; COOLER
AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THIS EVENING AND MOVE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING MODESTLY PINCHED
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST AND CONTINUE TO FEED ELEVATED NORTHEAST
FLOW. WINDS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE MAY BRIEFLY TURN MORE
EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE GEORGIA
WATERS WHICH WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY DIMINISH BACK TO 10-15 KT THIS EVENING BEFORE
INCREASING BACK INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE
MAIN WIND DRIVER IS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATED AND NOT MIXING...FEEL
PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE
AT TIME AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NEEDED. SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 4 FT OUT AROUND 20 NM MAINLY OFF THE GEORGIA COAST...AND 4-5
FT BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN LESS THAN
IDEAL CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO SATURDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL KEEP THE SEA STATE RATHER CHOPPY WITH SEA
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND 4-5 FT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 5-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...MAINLY FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG WHERE SEA BREACH THE 6 FT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
A BIT IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15
KT OR SO. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AN
5-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 221912
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
312 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL
HELP MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE
FORECAST IS DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP DRY AIR AND A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. GIVEN THE WAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALIGNS...AREAS WELL INLAND HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF COMPLETE
DECOUPLING WHILE LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST MAY STAY A BIT MIXED.
THE RESULT WILL BE OUR COOLEST NIGHT IN ABOUT A WEEK WITH SOME MID
50S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND...RANGING TO LOW TO MID 60S RIGHT AT THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
WILL STEADILY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK/SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH FEATURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTS, WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
BEACHES BY SUNDAY. THE 22/12Z NAM/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND PUSHING ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT THIS LOOKS A BIT BULLISH WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SREF MEMBERS AND THE 22/00Z ECMWF SHOWING MUCH DRIER SOLUTIONS.
PREFER TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE DRIER ECMWF/SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH
IS ALSO SIMILAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS KEEPS MENTIONABLE POPS
OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE ADJACENT
GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. IF THE 22/12Z ECMWF AND 22/21Z SREF TREND
WETTER...THAN THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS MAY BE NEEDED
WITH THE FULL FORECAST PACKAGE SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER-MID 80S BOTH DAY, POSSIBLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
WELL INLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50/NEAR 60 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES SUNDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC, HELPING TO ADVECT
HIGHER MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER-700 HPA THETA-E INTO THE REGION. THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL WITH 500 HPA HEIGHTS REACHING 593 DM AND THE CENTER OF
THE 850 HPA ANTICYCLONE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO
LIMIT THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH FAIRLY WARM
MID-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S; COOLER
AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THIS EVENING AND MOVE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING MODESTLY PINCHED
GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST AND CONTINUE TO FEED ELEVATED NORTHEAST
FLOW. WINDS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE MAY BRIEFLY TURN MORE
EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE GEORGIA
WATERS WHICH WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY DIMINISH BACK TO 10-15 KT THIS EVENING BEFORE
INCREASING BACK INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE
MAIN WIND DRIVER IS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATED AND NOT MIXING...FEEL
PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE
AT TIME AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NEEDED. SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 4 FT OUT AROUND 20 NM MAINLY OFF THE GEORGIA COAST...AND 4-5
FT BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN LESS THAN
IDEAL CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO SATURDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL KEEP THE SEA STATE RATHER CHOPPY WITH SEA
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND 4-5 FT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 5-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...MAINLY FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG WHERE SEA BREACH THE 6 FT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
A BIT IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15
KT OR SO. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AN
5-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/ST




000
FXUS62 KCAE 221832
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
232 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TODAY WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS AND ALTO-CUMULUS
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
SKY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING/TONIGHT.
RADIATION SCHEME SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW
MOS CONSENSUS...UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. THE MODELS MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA
ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. ALL OF THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST..BUT NOTICED THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE PAST RUN OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BUILD THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKLY SLIGHTLY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OFFSHORE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE CIRCULATING AN
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN
SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A
LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SKY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EAST WINDS ON SATURDAY
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 221832
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
232 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TODAY WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS AND ALTO-CUMULUS
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
SKY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING/TONIGHT.
RADIATION SCHEME SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW
MOS CONSENSUS...UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. THE MODELS MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA
ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. ALL OF THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST..BUT NOTICED THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE PAST RUN OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BUILD THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKLY SLIGHTLY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OFFSHORE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE CIRCULATING AN
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN
SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A
LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SKY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EAST WINDS ON SATURDAY
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77



000
FXUS62 KCAE 221832
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
232 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TODAY WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS AND ALTO-CUMULUS
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
SKY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING/TONIGHT.
RADIATION SCHEME SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW
MOS CONSENSUS...UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. THE MODELS MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA
ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. ALL OF THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST..BUT NOTICED THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE PAST RUN OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BUILD THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKLY SLIGHTLY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OFFSHORE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE CIRCULATING AN
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN
SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A
LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SKY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EAST WINDS ON SATURDAY
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77



000
FXUS62 KCAE 221832
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
232 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TODAY WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS AND ALTO-CUMULUS
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
SKY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING/TONIGHT.
RADIATION SCHEME SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW
MOS CONSENSUS...UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
REGION. THE MODELS MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA
ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. ALL OF THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST..BUT NOTICED THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE PAST RUN OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BUILD THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKLY SLIGHTLY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OFFSHORE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE CIRCULATING AN
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN
SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A
LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SKY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EAST WINDS ON SATURDAY
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCHS 221755
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
155 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE COMING THROUGH THE SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS.
THIS STRATOCU HAS STARTED TO BREAK UP AND DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET
OF SURFACE HEATING IN THE LATE MAY SUNSHINE...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TODAY...THE NORTHEAST SURGE HAS PEAKED AND NOW ENCOMPASSES
ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS. BUOY 41008 IS SITTING WELL WITHIN THE
15-20 KT RANGE AS ARE OTHER OBSERVATION POINTS ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NEEDED AS A
RESULT. NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT OUT TO 20 NM AND 3-5 FT BEYOND.

TONIGHT...THE TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS SHOULD WAVER
FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/JRL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 221755
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
155 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE COMING THROUGH THE SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS.
THIS STRATOCU HAS STARTED TO BREAK UP AND DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET
OF SURFACE HEATING IN THE LATE MAY SUNSHINE...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TODAY...THE NORTHEAST SURGE HAS PEAKED AND NOW ENCOMPASSES
ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS. BUOY 41008 IS SITTING WELL WITHIN THE
15-20 KT RANGE AS ARE OTHER OBSERVATION POINTS ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NEEDED AS A
RESULT. NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT OUT TO 20 NM AND 3-5 FT BEYOND.

TONIGHT...THE TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS SHOULD WAVER
FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 221755
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
155 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE COMING THROUGH THE SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS.
THIS STRATOCU HAS STARTED TO BREAK UP AND DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET
OF SURFACE HEATING IN THE LATE MAY SUNSHINE...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TODAY...THE NORTHEAST SURGE HAS PEAKED AND NOW ENCOMPASSES
ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS. BUOY 41008 IS SITTING WELL WITHIN THE
15-20 KT RANGE AS ARE OTHER OBSERVATION POINTS ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NEEDED AS A
RESULT. NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT OUT TO 20 NM AND 3-5 FT BEYOND.

TONIGHT...THE TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS SHOULD WAVER
FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 221755
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
155 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE COMING THROUGH THE SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS.
THIS STRATOCU HAS STARTED TO BREAK UP AND DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET
OF SURFACE HEATING IN THE LATE MAY SUNSHINE...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TODAY...THE NORTHEAST SURGE HAS PEAKED AND NOW ENCOMPASSES
ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS. BUOY 41008 IS SITTING WELL WITHIN THE
15-20 KT RANGE AS ARE OTHER OBSERVATION POINTS ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NEEDED AS A
RESULT. NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT OUT TO 20 NM AND 3-5 FT BEYOND.

TONIGHT...THE TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS SHOULD WAVER
FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 221755
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
155 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE COMING THROUGH THE SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS.
THIS STRATOCU HAS STARTED TO BREAK UP AND DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET
OF SURFACE HEATING IN THE LATE MAY SUNSHINE...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TODAY...THE NORTHEAST SURGE HAS PEAKED AND NOW ENCOMPASSES
ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS. BUOY 41008 IS SITTING WELL WITHIN THE
15-20 KT RANGE AS ARE OTHER OBSERVATION POINTS ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NEEDED AS A
RESULT. NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT OUT TO 20 NM AND 3-5 FT BEYOND.

TONIGHT...THE TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS SHOULD WAVER
FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 221755
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
155 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE COMING THROUGH THE SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS.
THIS STRATOCU HAS STARTED TO BREAK UP AND DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET
OF SURFACE HEATING IN THE LATE MAY SUNSHINE...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TODAY...THE NORTHEAST SURGE HAS PEAKED AND NOW ENCOMPASSES
ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS. BUOY 41008 IS SITTING WELL WITHIN THE
15-20 KT RANGE AS ARE OTHER OBSERVATION POINTS ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NEEDED AS A
RESULT. NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT OUT TO 20 NM AND 3-5 FT BEYOND.

TONIGHT...THE TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS SHOULD WAVER
FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/JRL




000
FXUS62 KCAE 221741
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
141 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TODAY WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS AND ALTO-CUMULUS
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
SKY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING/TONIGHT.
RADIATION SCHEME SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW
MOS CONSENSUS...UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION SATURDAY WILL BE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. THE MODELS MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY H5 RIDGING BUILDING
SUNDAY. ALL OF THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER
RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING.
THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SKY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EAST WINDS ON SATURDAY
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 221741
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
141 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TODAY WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS AND ALTO-CUMULUS
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
SKY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING/TONIGHT.
RADIATION SCHEME SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW
MOS CONSENSUS...UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION SATURDAY WILL BE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. THE MODELS MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY H5 RIDGING BUILDING
SUNDAY. ALL OF THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER
RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING.
THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SKY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EAST WINDS ON SATURDAY
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 221741
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
141 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TODAY WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS AND ALTO-CUMULUS
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
SKY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING/TONIGHT.
RADIATION SCHEME SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW
MOS CONSENSUS...UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION SATURDAY WILL BE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. THE MODELS MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY H5 RIDGING BUILDING
SUNDAY. ALL OF THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER
RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING.
THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SKY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EAST WINDS ON SATURDAY
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 221741
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
141 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TODAY WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS AND ALTO-CUMULUS
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
SKY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING/TONIGHT.
RADIATION SCHEME SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW
MOS CONSENSUS...UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION SATURDAY WILL BE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. THE MODELS MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY H5 RIDGING BUILDING
SUNDAY. ALL OF THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER
RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING.
THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SKY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EAST WINDS ON SATURDAY
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 221741
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
141 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TODAY WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS AND ALTO-CUMULUS
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
SKY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING/TONIGHT.
RADIATION SCHEME SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW
MOS CONSENSUS...UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION SATURDAY WILL BE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. THE MODELS MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY H5 RIDGING BUILDING
SUNDAY. ALL OF THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER
RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING.
THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SKY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EAST WINDS ON SATURDAY
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 221741
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
141 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TODAY WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS AND ALTO-CUMULUS
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
SKY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING/TONIGHT.
RADIATION SCHEME SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW
MOS CONSENSUS...UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION SATURDAY WILL BE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. THE MODELS MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY H5 RIDGING BUILDING
SUNDAY. ALL OF THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER
RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING.
THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SKY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EAST WINDS ON SATURDAY
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 221453
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1053 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO BRIDGE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MAIN
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE AND AIRMASS CHANGE HAS NOW PUSHED FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO REACH SAVANNAH AND WILL REACH THE ALTAMAHA IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL WE CAN GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING
TO HELP SCATTER IT OUT. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...AND LOW 80S FOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KSAV...AN AREA OF MVFR LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
LAST HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL PERSIST AS THE PREVAILING CONDITION
THROUGH ABOUT NOON...THEN WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT
THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTHEAST SURGE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THE SURGE HAS BEEN A BIT
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE 25-27 KT RANGE
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE...AND THE GEORGIA WATERS
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THIS STRONG PUNCH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...ON THE ORDER OF 2 HOURS...AND NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE RAISED. INSTEAD...HAVE GONE WITH A SOLID
20 KT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL ZONES OTHER THAN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WITH SEAS UP TO
4 OUT TO 20 NM...AND UP TO 5 FT BEYOND INTO THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS.

TONIGHT...THE TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS SHOULD WAVER
FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 221453
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1053 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO BRIDGE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MAIN
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE AND AIRMASS CHANGE HAS NOW PUSHED FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO REACH SAVANNAH AND WILL REACH THE ALTAMAHA IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL WE CAN GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING
TO HELP SCATTER IT OUT. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...AND LOW 80S FOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KSAV...AN AREA OF MVFR LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
LAST HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL PERSIST AS THE PREVAILING CONDITION
THROUGH ABOUT NOON...THEN WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT
THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTHEAST SURGE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THE SURGE HAS BEEN A BIT
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE 25-27 KT RANGE
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE...AND THE GEORGIA WATERS
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THIS STRONG PUNCH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...ON THE ORDER OF 2 HOURS...AND NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE RAISED. INSTEAD...HAVE GONE WITH A SOLID
20 KT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL ZONES OTHER THAN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WITH SEAS UP TO
4 OUT TO 20 NM...AND UP TO 5 FT BEYOND INTO THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS.

TONIGHT...THE TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS SHOULD WAVER
FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 221453
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1053 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO BRIDGE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MAIN
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE AND AIRMASS CHANGE HAS NOW PUSHED FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO REACH SAVANNAH AND WILL REACH THE ALTAMAHA IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL WE CAN GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING
TO HELP SCATTER IT OUT. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...AND LOW 80S FOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KSAV...AN AREA OF MVFR LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
LAST HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL PERSIST AS THE PREVAILING CONDITION
THROUGH ABOUT NOON...THEN WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT
THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTHEAST SURGE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THE SURGE HAS BEEN A BIT
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE 25-27 KT RANGE
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE...AND THE GEORGIA WATERS
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THIS STRONG PUNCH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...ON THE ORDER OF 2 HOURS...AND NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE RAISED. INSTEAD...HAVE GONE WITH A SOLID
20 KT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL ZONES OTHER THAN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WITH SEAS UP TO
4 OUT TO 20 NM...AND UP TO 5 FT BEYOND INTO THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS.

TONIGHT...THE TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS SHOULD WAVER
FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 221453
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1053 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO BRIDGE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MAIN
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE AND AIRMASS CHANGE HAS NOW PUSHED FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO REACH SAVANNAH AND WILL REACH THE ALTAMAHA IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL WE CAN GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING
TO HELP SCATTER IT OUT. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...AND LOW 80S FOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KSAV...AN AREA OF MVFR LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
LAST HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL PERSIST AS THE PREVAILING CONDITION
THROUGH ABOUT NOON...THEN WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT
THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTHEAST SURGE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THE SURGE HAS BEEN A BIT
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE 25-27 KT RANGE
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE...AND THE GEORGIA WATERS
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THIS STRONG PUNCH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...ON THE ORDER OF 2 HOURS...AND NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE RAISED. INSTEAD...HAVE GONE WITH A SOLID
20 KT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL ZONES OTHER THAN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WITH SEAS UP TO
4 OUT TO 20 NM...AND UP TO 5 FT BEYOND INTO THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS.

TONIGHT...THE TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS SHOULD WAVER
FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/JRL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 221447
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1047 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO NEAR TERM AS FORECAST LARGELY ON
TRACK AND VERY PLEASANT DAY ON TAP. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING. 07-08Z /3-4AM EDT/ TEMPS
RANGED FROM AROUND 50F OVER EXTREME NRN/NW GA TO THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE EXTREME SE AREA OF THE CWA /NEAR VIDALIA/. A BAND OF
BKN TO OVC MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND
SHOULD THIN OUT AND EXIT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NW WINDS
WERE STILL UP A BIT /NEAR 10KTS/ IN SPOTS IN RESPONSE TO GRADIENT
BETWEEN SFC HIGH OVER NE ARKANSAS/WRN TN AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
S CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH CENTER IS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN
AR. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MIN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 4 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NE/E AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD
BY THIS EVENING.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
BY MEMORIAL DAY /MONDAY/...A MORE PREVAILING RETURN /SOUTHEAST/
FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPR RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES JUST OFF THE GA/FL COAST. AN UPR LVL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH THE LWR MS VLY BY TUES/WED BUT THE UPR RIDGE APPEARS TO
HOLD STRONG ENOUGH TO DEFLECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE/ENERGY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS NW
GEORGIA MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH LOWER CHANCES SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL FOR LATE MAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPS FROM
THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S IN THE NORTH GA MTNS TO AROUND 90F ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AREAS FROM DUBLIN TO VIDALIA. AS MOISTURE/HIGHER HUMIDITY
RETURNS...MORNING LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 60-70F.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE
TODAY. A PERIOD OF NE WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
DAY...BEFORE GOING BACK TO NW IN THE MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. SINCE
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10KT...AT PERIODS WINDS COULD
FLIP FLOP BACK AND FORTH A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 360
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  55  81  58 /   0   5   5   5
ATLANTA         77  58  81  62 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     73  49  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    77  52  82  59 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        81  59  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     76  56  79  59 /   0   0   5   0
MACON           81  56  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            76  51  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  78  53  82  57 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         82  59  84  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA/BAKER
LONG TERM....DJN.83
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA




000
FXUS62 KCAE 221146
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
746 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TODAY WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR. THERE
WILL BE LESS WIND TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WIND WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT WITH STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION SATURDAY WILL BE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. THE MODELS MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY H5 RIDGING BUILDING
SUNDAY. ALL OF THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER
RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING.
THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONSIDERABLE STRATO-CUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION IN COLD ADVECTION
PATTERN. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...MIXING OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS NORTH-NORTHEAST AND GUSTY TO 20 KTS THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. SKY CLEAR AFTER 00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 221146
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
746 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TODAY WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR. THERE
WILL BE LESS WIND TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WIND WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT WITH STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION SATURDAY WILL BE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. THE MODELS MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY H5 RIDGING BUILDING
SUNDAY. ALL OF THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER
RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING.
THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONSIDERABLE STRATO-CUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION IN COLD ADVECTION
PATTERN. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...MIXING OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS NORTH-NORTHEAST AND GUSTY TO 20 KTS THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. SKY CLEAR AFTER 00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 221146
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
746 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TODAY WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR. THERE
WILL BE LESS WIND TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WIND WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT WITH STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION SATURDAY WILL BE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. THE MODELS MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY H5 RIDGING BUILDING
SUNDAY. ALL OF THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER
RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING.
THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONSIDERABLE STRATO-CUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION IN COLD ADVECTION
PATTERN. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...MIXING OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS NORTH-NORTHEAST AND GUSTY TO 20 KTS THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. SKY CLEAR AFTER 00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 221146
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
746 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TODAY WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR. THERE
WILL BE LESS WIND TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WIND WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT WITH STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION SATURDAY WILL BE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. THE MODELS MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY H5 RIDGING BUILDING
SUNDAY. ALL OF THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER
RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING.
THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONSIDERABLE STRATO-CUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION IN COLD ADVECTION
PATTERN. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...MIXING OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS NORTH-NORTHEAST AND GUSTY TO 20 KTS THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. SKY CLEAR AFTER 00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCHS 221131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WILL RAPIDLY BUILD EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND OFFSHORE LOW. THE HIGH WILL
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLC REGION TONIGHT...GENERALLY BLANKETING
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

925 MB TEMPS THAT WERE RUNNING IN THE MID 70S YESTERDAY ARE PROGGED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY. THE PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL COOLER
AIR WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION BETWEEN 3 AND 7 KFT. MOST OF THE
00Z MODELS INDICATE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL RESIDE UNDER THIS
INVERSION THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS NORTH OF I-
16. THESE MORNING STRATOCU AND HIGH CLOUDS THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
COULD BE FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING 80 DEGREES IN
SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-16 TODAY. OVERALL WE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS HIGH TEMP TRENDS BUT LOWERED A FEW NORTHERN ZONES DOWN JUST
A TAD AS SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AT KCHS/KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SIGNIFICANT BUT BRIEF SURGE FROM THE NNE IS ON TAP THIS MORNING
AS STRONG SURFACE PRES RISES BUILD OVER THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS REACHING 20 KT
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AS THE SURGE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE
WATERS OFF CHARLESTON SHORTLY AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER THIS MORNING TO 15-20 KT. WE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST
CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW GIVEN THE
BREVITY OF THE BEST SURGING CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL
COOLER AIR ADVECTION. CHOPPY CONDITIONS OVER THE INTRA- COASTAL
WATERS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH OF SAVANNAH AND 15-20
KT IN THE CHS HARBOR WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON THE OUTSIDE DURING THE
MAX SURGE AROUND MID MORNING.

THE TIGHTER GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS BY TONIGHT AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS
SHOULD WAVER FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 221131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WILL RAPIDLY BUILD EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND OFFSHORE LOW. THE HIGH WILL
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLC REGION TONIGHT...GENERALLY BLANKETING
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

925 MB TEMPS THAT WERE RUNNING IN THE MID 70S YESTERDAY ARE PROGGED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY. THE PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL COOLER
AIR WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION BETWEEN 3 AND 7 KFT. MOST OF THE
00Z MODELS INDICATE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL RESIDE UNDER THIS
INVERSION THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS NORTH OF I-
16. THESE MORNING STRATOCU AND HIGH CLOUDS THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
COULD BE FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING 80 DEGREES IN
SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-16 TODAY. OVERALL WE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS HIGH TEMP TRENDS BUT LOWERED A FEW NORTHERN ZONES DOWN JUST
A TAD AS SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AT KCHS/KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SIGNIFICANT BUT BRIEF SURGE FROM THE NNE IS ON TAP THIS MORNING
AS STRONG SURFACE PRES RISES BUILD OVER THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS REACHING 20 KT
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AS THE SURGE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE
WATERS OFF CHARLESTON SHORTLY AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER THIS MORNING TO 15-20 KT. WE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST
CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW GIVEN THE
BREVITY OF THE BEST SURGING CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL
COOLER AIR ADVECTION. CHOPPY CONDITIONS OVER THE INTRA- COASTAL
WATERS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH OF SAVANNAH AND 15-20
KT IN THE CHS HARBOR WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON THE OUTSIDE DURING THE
MAX SURGE AROUND MID MORNING.

THE TIGHTER GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS BY TONIGHT AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS
SHOULD WAVER FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 221131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WILL RAPIDLY BUILD EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND OFFSHORE LOW. THE HIGH WILL
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLC REGION TONIGHT...GENERALLY BLANKETING
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

925 MB TEMPS THAT WERE RUNNING IN THE MID 70S YESTERDAY ARE PROGGED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY. THE PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL COOLER
AIR WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION BETWEEN 3 AND 7 KFT. MOST OF THE
00Z MODELS INDICATE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL RESIDE UNDER THIS
INVERSION THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS NORTH OF I-
16. THESE MORNING STRATOCU AND HIGH CLOUDS THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
COULD BE FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING 80 DEGREES IN
SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-16 TODAY. OVERALL WE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS HIGH TEMP TRENDS BUT LOWERED A FEW NORTHERN ZONES DOWN JUST
A TAD AS SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AT KCHS/KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SIGNIFICANT BUT BRIEF SURGE FROM THE NNE IS ON TAP THIS MORNING
AS STRONG SURFACE PRES RISES BUILD OVER THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS REACHING 20 KT
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AS THE SURGE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE
WATERS OFF CHARLESTON SHORTLY AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER THIS MORNING TO 15-20 KT. WE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST
CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW GIVEN THE
BREVITY OF THE BEST SURGING CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL
COOLER AIR ADVECTION. CHOPPY CONDITIONS OVER THE INTRA- COASTAL
WATERS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH OF SAVANNAH AND 15-20
KT IN THE CHS HARBOR WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON THE OUTSIDE DURING THE
MAX SURGE AROUND MID MORNING.

THE TIGHTER GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS BY TONIGHT AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS
SHOULD WAVER FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 221131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WILL RAPIDLY BUILD EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND OFFSHORE LOW. THE HIGH WILL
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLC REGION TONIGHT...GENERALLY BLANKETING
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

925 MB TEMPS THAT WERE RUNNING IN THE MID 70S YESTERDAY ARE PROGGED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY. THE PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL COOLER
AIR WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION BETWEEN 3 AND 7 KFT. MOST OF THE
00Z MODELS INDICATE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL RESIDE UNDER THIS
INVERSION THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS NORTH OF I-
16. THESE MORNING STRATOCU AND HIGH CLOUDS THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
COULD BE FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING 80 DEGREES IN
SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-16 TODAY. OVERALL WE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS HIGH TEMP TRENDS BUT LOWERED A FEW NORTHERN ZONES DOWN JUST
A TAD AS SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AT KCHS/KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SIGNIFICANT BUT BRIEF SURGE FROM THE NNE IS ON TAP THIS MORNING
AS STRONG SURFACE PRES RISES BUILD OVER THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS REACHING 20 KT
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AS THE SURGE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE
WATERS OFF CHARLESTON SHORTLY AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER THIS MORNING TO 15-20 KT. WE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST
CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW GIVEN THE
BREVITY OF THE BEST SURGING CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL
COOLER AIR ADVECTION. CHOPPY CONDITIONS OVER THE INTRA- COASTAL
WATERS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH OF SAVANNAH AND 15-20
KT IN THE CHS HARBOR WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON THE OUTSIDE DURING THE
MAX SURGE AROUND MID MORNING.

THE TIGHTER GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS BY TONIGHT AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS
SHOULD WAVER FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 221131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WILL RAPIDLY BUILD EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND OFFSHORE LOW. THE HIGH WILL
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLC REGION TONIGHT...GENERALLY BLANKETING
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

925 MB TEMPS THAT WERE RUNNING IN THE MID 70S YESTERDAY ARE PROGGED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY. THE PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL COOLER
AIR WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION BETWEEN 3 AND 7 KFT. MOST OF THE
00Z MODELS INDICATE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL RESIDE UNDER THIS
INVERSION THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS NORTH OF I-
16. THESE MORNING STRATOCU AND HIGH CLOUDS THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
COULD BE FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING 80 DEGREES IN
SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-16 TODAY. OVERALL WE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS HIGH TEMP TRENDS BUT LOWERED A FEW NORTHERN ZONES DOWN JUST
A TAD AS SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AT KCHS/KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SIGNIFICANT BUT BRIEF SURGE FROM THE NNE IS ON TAP THIS MORNING
AS STRONG SURFACE PRES RISES BUILD OVER THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS REACHING 20 KT
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AS THE SURGE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE
WATERS OFF CHARLESTON SHORTLY AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER THIS MORNING TO 15-20 KT. WE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST
CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW GIVEN THE
BREVITY OF THE BEST SURGING CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL
COOLER AIR ADVECTION. CHOPPY CONDITIONS OVER THE INTRA- COASTAL
WATERS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH OF SAVANNAH AND 15-20
KT IN THE CHS HARBOR WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON THE OUTSIDE DURING THE
MAX SURGE AROUND MID MORNING.

THE TIGHTER GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS BY TONIGHT AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS
SHOULD WAVER FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 221131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WILL RAPIDLY BUILD EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND OFFSHORE LOW. THE HIGH WILL
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLC REGION TONIGHT...GENERALLY BLANKETING
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

925 MB TEMPS THAT WERE RUNNING IN THE MID 70S YESTERDAY ARE PROGGED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY. THE PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL COOLER
AIR WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION BETWEEN 3 AND 7 KFT. MOST OF THE
00Z MODELS INDICATE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL RESIDE UNDER THIS
INVERSION THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS NORTH OF I-
16. THESE MORNING STRATOCU AND HIGH CLOUDS THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
COULD BE FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING 80 DEGREES IN
SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-16 TODAY. OVERALL WE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS HIGH TEMP TRENDS BUT LOWERED A FEW NORTHERN ZONES DOWN JUST
A TAD AS SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AT KCHS/KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SIGNIFICANT BUT BRIEF SURGE FROM THE NNE IS ON TAP THIS MORNING
AS STRONG SURFACE PRES RISES BUILD OVER THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS REACHING 20 KT
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AS THE SURGE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE
WATERS OFF CHARLESTON SHORTLY AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER THIS MORNING TO 15-20 KT. WE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST
CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW GIVEN THE
BREVITY OF THE BEST SURGING CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL
COOLER AIR ADVECTION. CHOPPY CONDITIONS OVER THE INTRA- COASTAL
WATERS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH OF SAVANNAH AND 15-20
KT IN THE CHS HARBOR WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON THE OUTSIDE DURING THE
MAX SURGE AROUND MID MORNING.

THE TIGHTER GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS BY TONIGHT AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS
SHOULD WAVER FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL



000
FXUS62 KFFC 221127
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
727 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING. 07-08Z /3-4AM EDT/ TEMPS
RANGED FROM AROUND 50F OVER EXTREME NRN/NW GA TO THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE EXTREME SE AREA OF THE CWA /NEAR VIDALIA/. A BAND OF
BKN TO OVC MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND
SHOULD THIN OUT AND EXIT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NW WINDS
WERE STILL UP A BIT /NEAR 10KTS/ IN SPOTS IN RESPONSE TO GRADIENT
BETWEEN SFC HIGH OVER NE ARKANSAS/WRN TN AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
S CAROLINA COAST.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH CENTER IS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN
AR. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MIN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 4 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NE/E AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD
BY THIS EVENING.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
BY MEMORIAL DAY /MONDAY/...A MORE PREVAILING RETURN /SOUTHEAST/
FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPR RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES JUST OFF THE GA/FL COAST. AN UPR LVL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH THE LWR MS VLY BY TUES/WED BUT THE UPR RIDGE APPEARS TO
HOLD STRONG ENOUGH TO DEFLECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE/ENERGY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS NW
GEORGIA MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH LOWER CHANCES SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL FOR LATE MAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPS FROM
THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S IN THE NORTH GA MTNS TO AROUND 90F ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AREAS FROM DUBLIN TO VIDALIA. AS MOISTURE/HIGHER HUMIDITY
RETURNS...MORNING LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 60-70F.

DJN.83


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE
TODAY. A PERIOD OF NE WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
DAY...BEFORE GOING BACK TO NW IN THE MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. SINCE
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10KT...AT PERIODS WINDS COULD
FLIP FLOP BACK AND FORTH A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 360
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  55  81  58 /   0   5   5   5
ATLANTA         77  58  81  62 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     73  49  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    77  52  82  59 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        81  59  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     76  56  79  59 /   0   0   5   0
MACON           81  56  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            76  51  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  78  53  82  57 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         82  59  84  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 221127
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
727 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING. 07-08Z /3-4AM EDT/ TEMPS
RANGED FROM AROUND 50F OVER EXTREME NRN/NW GA TO THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE EXTREME SE AREA OF THE CWA /NEAR VIDALIA/. A BAND OF
BKN TO OVC MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND
SHOULD THIN OUT AND EXIT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NW WINDS
WERE STILL UP A BIT /NEAR 10KTS/ IN SPOTS IN RESPONSE TO GRADIENT
BETWEEN SFC HIGH OVER NE ARKANSAS/WRN TN AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
S CAROLINA COAST.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH CENTER IS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN
AR. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MIN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 4 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NE/E AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD
BY THIS EVENING.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
BY MEMORIAL DAY /MONDAY/...A MORE PREVAILING RETURN /SOUTHEAST/
FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPR RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES JUST OFF THE GA/FL COAST. AN UPR LVL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH THE LWR MS VLY BY TUES/WED BUT THE UPR RIDGE APPEARS TO
HOLD STRONG ENOUGH TO DEFLECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE/ENERGY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS NW
GEORGIA MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH LOWER CHANCES SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL FOR LATE MAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPS FROM
THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S IN THE NORTH GA MTNS TO AROUND 90F ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AREAS FROM DUBLIN TO VIDALIA. AS MOISTURE/HIGHER HUMIDITY
RETURNS...MORNING LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 60-70F.

DJN.83


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE
TODAY. A PERIOD OF NE WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
DAY...BEFORE GOING BACK TO NW IN THE MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. SINCE
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10KT...AT PERIODS WINDS COULD
FLIP FLOP BACK AND FORTH A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 360
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  55  81  58 /   0   5   5   5
ATLANTA         77  58  81  62 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     73  49  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    77  52  82  59 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        81  59  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     76  56  79  59 /   0   0   5   0
MACON           81  56  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            76  51  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  78  53  82  57 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         82  59  84  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 221127
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
727 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING. 07-08Z /3-4AM EDT/ TEMPS
RANGED FROM AROUND 50F OVER EXTREME NRN/NW GA TO THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE EXTREME SE AREA OF THE CWA /NEAR VIDALIA/. A BAND OF
BKN TO OVC MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND
SHOULD THIN OUT AND EXIT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NW WINDS
WERE STILL UP A BIT /NEAR 10KTS/ IN SPOTS IN RESPONSE TO GRADIENT
BETWEEN SFC HIGH OVER NE ARKANSAS/WRN TN AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
S CAROLINA COAST.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH CENTER IS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN
AR. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MIN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 4 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NE/E AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD
BY THIS EVENING.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
BY MEMORIAL DAY /MONDAY/...A MORE PREVAILING RETURN /SOUTHEAST/
FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPR RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES JUST OFF THE GA/FL COAST. AN UPR LVL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH THE LWR MS VLY BY TUES/WED BUT THE UPR RIDGE APPEARS TO
HOLD STRONG ENOUGH TO DEFLECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE/ENERGY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS NW
GEORGIA MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH LOWER CHANCES SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL FOR LATE MAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPS FROM
THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S IN THE NORTH GA MTNS TO AROUND 90F ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AREAS FROM DUBLIN TO VIDALIA. AS MOISTURE/HIGHER HUMIDITY
RETURNS...MORNING LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 60-70F.

DJN.83


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE
TODAY. A PERIOD OF NE WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
DAY...BEFORE GOING BACK TO NW IN THE MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. SINCE
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10KT...AT PERIODS WINDS COULD
FLIP FLOP BACK AND FORTH A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 360
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  55  81  58 /   0   5   5   5
ATLANTA         77  58  81  62 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     73  49  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    77  52  82  59 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        81  59  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     76  56  79  59 /   0   0   5   0
MACON           81  56  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            76  51  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  78  53  82  57 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         82  59  84  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 221127
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
727 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING. 07-08Z /3-4AM EDT/ TEMPS
RANGED FROM AROUND 50F OVER EXTREME NRN/NW GA TO THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE EXTREME SE AREA OF THE CWA /NEAR VIDALIA/. A BAND OF
BKN TO OVC MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND
SHOULD THIN OUT AND EXIT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NW WINDS
WERE STILL UP A BIT /NEAR 10KTS/ IN SPOTS IN RESPONSE TO GRADIENT
BETWEEN SFC HIGH OVER NE ARKANSAS/WRN TN AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
S CAROLINA COAST.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH CENTER IS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN
AR. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MIN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 4 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NE/E AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD
BY THIS EVENING.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
BY MEMORIAL DAY /MONDAY/...A MORE PREVAILING RETURN /SOUTHEAST/
FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPR RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES JUST OFF THE GA/FL COAST. AN UPR LVL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH THE LWR MS VLY BY TUES/WED BUT THE UPR RIDGE APPEARS TO
HOLD STRONG ENOUGH TO DEFLECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE/ENERGY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS NW
GEORGIA MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH LOWER CHANCES SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL FOR LATE MAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPS FROM
THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S IN THE NORTH GA MTNS TO AROUND 90F ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AREAS FROM DUBLIN TO VIDALIA. AS MOISTURE/HIGHER HUMIDITY
RETURNS...MORNING LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 60-70F.

DJN.83


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE
TODAY. A PERIOD OF NE WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
DAY...BEFORE GOING BACK TO NW IN THE MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. SINCE
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10KT...AT PERIODS WINDS COULD
FLIP FLOP BACK AND FORTH A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 360
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  55  81  58 /   0   5   5   5
ATLANTA         77  58  81  62 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     73  49  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    77  52  82  59 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        81  59  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     76  56  79  59 /   0   0   5   0
MACON           81  56  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            76  51  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  78  53  82  57 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         82  59  84  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 221127
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
727 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING. 07-08Z /3-4AM EDT/ TEMPS
RANGED FROM AROUND 50F OVER EXTREME NRN/NW GA TO THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE EXTREME SE AREA OF THE CWA /NEAR VIDALIA/. A BAND OF
BKN TO OVC MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND
SHOULD THIN OUT AND EXIT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NW WINDS
WERE STILL UP A BIT /NEAR 10KTS/ IN SPOTS IN RESPONSE TO GRADIENT
BETWEEN SFC HIGH OVER NE ARKANSAS/WRN TN AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
S CAROLINA COAST.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH CENTER IS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN
AR. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MIN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 4 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NE/E AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD
BY THIS EVENING.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
BY MEMORIAL DAY /MONDAY/...A MORE PREVAILING RETURN /SOUTHEAST/
FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPR RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES JUST OFF THE GA/FL COAST. AN UPR LVL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH THE LWR MS VLY BY TUES/WED BUT THE UPR RIDGE APPEARS TO
HOLD STRONG ENOUGH TO DEFLECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE/ENERGY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS NW
GEORGIA MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH LOWER CHANCES SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL FOR LATE MAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPS FROM
THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S IN THE NORTH GA MTNS TO AROUND 90F ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AREAS FROM DUBLIN TO VIDALIA. AS MOISTURE/HIGHER HUMIDITY
RETURNS...MORNING LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 60-70F.

DJN.83


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE
TODAY. A PERIOD OF NE WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
DAY...BEFORE GOING BACK TO NW IN THE MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. SINCE
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10KT...AT PERIODS WINDS COULD
FLIP FLOP BACK AND FORTH A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 360
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  55  81  58 /   0   5   5   5
ATLANTA         77  58  81  62 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     73  49  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    77  52  82  59 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        81  59  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     76  56  79  59 /   0   0   5   0
MACON           81  56  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            76  51  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  78  53  82  57 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         82  59  84  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 221127
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
727 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING. 07-08Z /3-4AM EDT/ TEMPS
RANGED FROM AROUND 50F OVER EXTREME NRN/NW GA TO THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE EXTREME SE AREA OF THE CWA /NEAR VIDALIA/. A BAND OF
BKN TO OVC MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND
SHOULD THIN OUT AND EXIT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NW WINDS
WERE STILL UP A BIT /NEAR 10KTS/ IN SPOTS IN RESPONSE TO GRADIENT
BETWEEN SFC HIGH OVER NE ARKANSAS/WRN TN AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
S CAROLINA COAST.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH CENTER IS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN
AR. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MIN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 4 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NE/E AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD
BY THIS EVENING.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
BY MEMORIAL DAY /MONDAY/...A MORE PREVAILING RETURN /SOUTHEAST/
FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPR RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES JUST OFF THE GA/FL COAST. AN UPR LVL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH THE LWR MS VLY BY TUES/WED BUT THE UPR RIDGE APPEARS TO
HOLD STRONG ENOUGH TO DEFLECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE/ENERGY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS NW
GEORGIA MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH LOWER CHANCES SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL FOR LATE MAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPS FROM
THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S IN THE NORTH GA MTNS TO AROUND 90F ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AREAS FROM DUBLIN TO VIDALIA. AS MOISTURE/HIGHER HUMIDITY
RETURNS...MORNING LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 60-70F.

DJN.83


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE
TODAY. A PERIOD OF NE WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
DAY...BEFORE GOING BACK TO NW IN THE MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. SINCE
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10KT...AT PERIODS WINDS COULD
FLIP FLOP BACK AND FORTH A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 360
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  55  81  58 /   0   5   5   5
ATLANTA         77  58  81  62 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     73  49  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    77  52  82  59 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        81  59  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     76  56  79  59 /   0   0   5   0
MACON           81  56  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            76  51  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  78  53  82  57 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         82  59  84  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 221016
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
616 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TODAY WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR. THERE
WILL BE LESS WIND TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WIND WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT WITH STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION SATURDAY WILL BE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. THE MODELS MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY H5 RIDGING BUILDING
SUNDAY. ALL OF THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER
RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING.
THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH. SOME SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH BASES 4KFT TO 6KFT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 221016
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
616 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TODAY WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR. THERE
WILL BE LESS WIND TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WIND WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT WITH STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION SATURDAY WILL BE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. THE MODELS MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY H5 RIDGING BUILDING
SUNDAY. ALL OF THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER
RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING.
THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH. SOME SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH BASES 4KFT TO 6KFT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 221016
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
616 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TODAY WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR. THERE
WILL BE LESS WIND TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WIND WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT WITH STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION SATURDAY WILL BE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. THE MODELS MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY H5 RIDGING BUILDING
SUNDAY. ALL OF THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER
RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING.
THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH. SOME SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH BASES 4KFT TO 6KFT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 221016
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
616 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TODAY WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR. THERE
WILL BE LESS WIND TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WIND WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT WITH STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION SATURDAY WILL BE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. THE MODELS MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY H5 RIDGING BUILDING
SUNDAY. ALL OF THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER
RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING.
THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH. SOME SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH BASES 4KFT TO 6KFT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCHS 220806
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
406 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...HIGH MAINLY THIN CLOUDS WERE INCREASING OVER THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET SEGMENT TRAVERSING GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH...INITIALLY OVER SE SOUTH CAROLINA PRIOR
TO 6 AM. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INCREASE IN STRATOCU OVER THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S MOST AREAS SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN.

TODAY...HIGH PRES WILL RAPIDLY BUILD EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND OFFSHORE LOW. THE HIGH WILL
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLC REGION TONIGHT...GENERALLY BLANKETING JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

925 MB TEMPS THAT WERE RUNNING IN THE MID 70S YESTERDAY ARE PROGGED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY. THE PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL COOLER
AIR WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION BETWEEN 3 AND 7 KFT. MOST OF THE
00Z MODELS INDICATE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL RESIDE UNDER THIS
INVERSION THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS NORTH OF I-
16. THESE MORNING STRATOCU AND HIGH CLOUDS THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
COULD BE FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING 80 DEGREES IN
SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-16 TODAY. OVERALL WE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS HIGH TEMP TRENDS BUT LOWERED A FEW NORTHERN ZONES DOWN JUST
A TAD AS SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SIGNIFICANT BUT BRIEF SURGE FROM THE NNE IS ON TAP THIS MORNING
AS STRONG SURFACE PRES RISES BUILD OVER THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH NEAR 20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AS THE SURGE BUILDS
SOUTH FROM THE WATERS OFF CHARLESTON SHORTLY JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
WE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR NOW GIVEN THE BREVITY OF THE BEST SURGING CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL COOLER AIR ADVECTION. CHOPPY CONDITIONS
OVER THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING TO THE
NORTH OF SAVANNAH AND 15-20 KT IN THE CHS HARBOR WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ON THE OUTSIDE DURING THE MAX SURGE AROUND MID MORNING.

THE TIGHTER GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS BY TONIGHT AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS
SHOULD WAVER FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 220806
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
406 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...HIGH MAINLY THIN CLOUDS WERE INCREASING OVER THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET SEGMENT TRAVERSING GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH...INITIALLY OVER SE SOUTH CAROLINA PRIOR
TO 6 AM. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INCREASE IN STRATOCU OVER THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S MOST AREAS SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN.

TODAY...HIGH PRES WILL RAPIDLY BUILD EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND OFFSHORE LOW. THE HIGH WILL
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLC REGION TONIGHT...GENERALLY BLANKETING JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

925 MB TEMPS THAT WERE RUNNING IN THE MID 70S YESTERDAY ARE PROGGED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY. THE PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL COOLER
AIR WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION BETWEEN 3 AND 7 KFT. MOST OF THE
00Z MODELS INDICATE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL RESIDE UNDER THIS
INVERSION THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS NORTH OF I-
16. THESE MORNING STRATOCU AND HIGH CLOUDS THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
COULD BE FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING 80 DEGREES IN
SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-16 TODAY. OVERALL WE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS HIGH TEMP TRENDS BUT LOWERED A FEW NORTHERN ZONES DOWN JUST
A TAD AS SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SIGNIFICANT BUT BRIEF SURGE FROM THE NNE IS ON TAP THIS MORNING
AS STRONG SURFACE PRES RISES BUILD OVER THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH NEAR 20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AS THE SURGE BUILDS
SOUTH FROM THE WATERS OFF CHARLESTON SHORTLY JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
WE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR NOW GIVEN THE BREVITY OF THE BEST SURGING CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL COOLER AIR ADVECTION. CHOPPY CONDITIONS
OVER THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING TO THE
NORTH OF SAVANNAH AND 15-20 KT IN THE CHS HARBOR WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ON THE OUTSIDE DURING THE MAX SURGE AROUND MID MORNING.

THE TIGHTER GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS BY TONIGHT AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS
SHOULD WAVER FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 220806
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
406 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...HIGH MAINLY THIN CLOUDS WERE INCREASING OVER THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET SEGMENT TRAVERSING GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH...INITIALLY OVER SE SOUTH CAROLINA PRIOR
TO 6 AM. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INCREASE IN STRATOCU OVER THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S MOST AREAS SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN.

TODAY...HIGH PRES WILL RAPIDLY BUILD EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND OFFSHORE LOW. THE HIGH WILL
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLC REGION TONIGHT...GENERALLY BLANKETING JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

925 MB TEMPS THAT WERE RUNNING IN THE MID 70S YESTERDAY ARE PROGGED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY. THE PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL COOLER
AIR WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION BETWEEN 3 AND 7 KFT. MOST OF THE
00Z MODELS INDICATE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL RESIDE UNDER THIS
INVERSION THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS NORTH OF I-
16. THESE MORNING STRATOCU AND HIGH CLOUDS THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
COULD BE FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING 80 DEGREES IN
SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-16 TODAY. OVERALL WE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS HIGH TEMP TRENDS BUT LOWERED A FEW NORTHERN ZONES DOWN JUST
A TAD AS SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SIGNIFICANT BUT BRIEF SURGE FROM THE NNE IS ON TAP THIS MORNING
AS STRONG SURFACE PRES RISES BUILD OVER THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH NEAR 20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AS THE SURGE BUILDS
SOUTH FROM THE WATERS OFF CHARLESTON SHORTLY JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
WE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR NOW GIVEN THE BREVITY OF THE BEST SURGING CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL COOLER AIR ADVECTION. CHOPPY CONDITIONS
OVER THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING TO THE
NORTH OF SAVANNAH AND 15-20 KT IN THE CHS HARBOR WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ON THE OUTSIDE DURING THE MAX SURGE AROUND MID MORNING.

THE TIGHTER GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS BY TONIGHT AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS
SHOULD WAVER FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 220806
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
406 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...HIGH MAINLY THIN CLOUDS WERE INCREASING OVER THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET SEGMENT TRAVERSING GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH...INITIALLY OVER SE SOUTH CAROLINA PRIOR
TO 6 AM. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INCREASE IN STRATOCU OVER THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S MOST AREAS SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN.

TODAY...HIGH PRES WILL RAPIDLY BUILD EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND OFFSHORE LOW. THE HIGH WILL
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLC REGION TONIGHT...GENERALLY BLANKETING JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

925 MB TEMPS THAT WERE RUNNING IN THE MID 70S YESTERDAY ARE PROGGED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY. THE PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL COOLER
AIR WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION BETWEEN 3 AND 7 KFT. MOST OF THE
00Z MODELS INDICATE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL RESIDE UNDER THIS
INVERSION THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS NORTH OF I-
16. THESE MORNING STRATOCU AND HIGH CLOUDS THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
COULD BE FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING 80 DEGREES IN
SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-16 TODAY. OVERALL WE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS HIGH TEMP TRENDS BUT LOWERED A FEW NORTHERN ZONES DOWN JUST
A TAD AS SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SIGNIFICANT BUT BRIEF SURGE FROM THE NNE IS ON TAP THIS MORNING
AS STRONG SURFACE PRES RISES BUILD OVER THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH NEAR 20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AS THE SURGE BUILDS
SOUTH FROM THE WATERS OFF CHARLESTON SHORTLY JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
WE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR NOW GIVEN THE BREVITY OF THE BEST SURGING CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL COOLER AIR ADVECTION. CHOPPY CONDITIONS
OVER THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING TO THE
NORTH OF SAVANNAH AND 15-20 KT IN THE CHS HARBOR WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ON THE OUTSIDE DURING THE MAX SURGE AROUND MID MORNING.

THE TIGHTER GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS BY TONIGHT AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS
SHOULD WAVER FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 220806
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
406 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...HIGH MAINLY THIN CLOUDS WERE INCREASING OVER THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET SEGMENT TRAVERSING GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH...INITIALLY OVER SE SOUTH CAROLINA PRIOR
TO 6 AM. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INCREASE IN STRATOCU OVER THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S MOST AREAS SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN.

TODAY...HIGH PRES WILL RAPIDLY BUILD EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND OFFSHORE LOW. THE HIGH WILL
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLC REGION TONIGHT...GENERALLY BLANKETING JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

925 MB TEMPS THAT WERE RUNNING IN THE MID 70S YESTERDAY ARE PROGGED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY. THE PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL COOLER
AIR WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION BETWEEN 3 AND 7 KFT. MOST OF THE
00Z MODELS INDICATE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL RESIDE UNDER THIS
INVERSION THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS NORTH OF I-
16. THESE MORNING STRATOCU AND HIGH CLOUDS THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
COULD BE FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING 80 DEGREES IN
SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-16 TODAY. OVERALL WE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS HIGH TEMP TRENDS BUT LOWERED A FEW NORTHERN ZONES DOWN JUST
A TAD AS SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SIGNIFICANT BUT BRIEF SURGE FROM THE NNE IS ON TAP THIS MORNING
AS STRONG SURFACE PRES RISES BUILD OVER THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH NEAR 20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AS THE SURGE BUILDS
SOUTH FROM THE WATERS OFF CHARLESTON SHORTLY JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
WE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR NOW GIVEN THE BREVITY OF THE BEST SURGING CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL COOLER AIR ADVECTION. CHOPPY CONDITIONS
OVER THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING TO THE
NORTH OF SAVANNAH AND 15-20 KT IN THE CHS HARBOR WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ON THE OUTSIDE DURING THE MAX SURGE AROUND MID MORNING.

THE TIGHTER GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS BY TONIGHT AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS
SHOULD WAVER FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 220806
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
406 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...HIGH MAINLY THIN CLOUDS WERE INCREASING OVER THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET SEGMENT TRAVERSING GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH...INITIALLY OVER SE SOUTH CAROLINA PRIOR
TO 6 AM. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INCREASE IN STRATOCU OVER THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S MOST AREAS SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN.

TODAY...HIGH PRES WILL RAPIDLY BUILD EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND OFFSHORE LOW. THE HIGH WILL
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLC REGION TONIGHT...GENERALLY BLANKETING JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

925 MB TEMPS THAT WERE RUNNING IN THE MID 70S YESTERDAY ARE PROGGED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY. THE PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL COOLER
AIR WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION BETWEEN 3 AND 7 KFT. MOST OF THE
00Z MODELS INDICATE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL RESIDE UNDER THIS
INVERSION THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS NORTH OF I-
16. THESE MORNING STRATOCU AND HIGH CLOUDS THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
COULD BE FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING 80 DEGREES IN
SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-16 TODAY. OVERALL WE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS HIGH TEMP TRENDS BUT LOWERED A FEW NORTHERN ZONES DOWN JUST
A TAD AS SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SIGNIFICANT BUT BRIEF SURGE FROM THE NNE IS ON TAP THIS MORNING
AS STRONG SURFACE PRES RISES BUILD OVER THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH NEAR 20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AS THE SURGE BUILDS
SOUTH FROM THE WATERS OFF CHARLESTON SHORTLY JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
WE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR NOW GIVEN THE BREVITY OF THE BEST SURGING CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL COOLER AIR ADVECTION. CHOPPY CONDITIONS
OVER THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING TO THE
NORTH OF SAVANNAH AND 15-20 KT IN THE CHS HARBOR WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ON THE OUTSIDE DURING THE MAX SURGE AROUND MID MORNING.

THE TIGHTER GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS BY TONIGHT AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS
SHOULD WAVER FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL



000
FXUS62 KFFC 220752
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
352 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING. 07-08Z /3-4AM EDT/ TEMPS
RANGED FROM AROUND 50F OVER EXTREME NRN/NW GA TO THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE EXTREME SE AREA OF THE CWA /NEAR VIDALIA/. A BAND OF
BKN TO OVC MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND
SHOULD THIN OUT AND EXIT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NW WINDS
WERE STILL UP A BIT /NEAR 10KTS/ IN SPOTS IN RESPONSE TO GRADIENT
BETWEEN SFC HIGH OVER NE ARKANSAS/WRN TN AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
S CAROLINA COAST.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH CENTER IS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN
AR. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MIN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 4 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NE/E AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD
BY THIS EVENING.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
BY MEMORIAL DAY /MONDAY/...A MORE PREVAILING RETURN /SOUTHEAST/
FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPR RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES JUST OFF THE GA/FL COAST. AN UPR LVL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH THE LWR MS VLY BY TUES/WED BUT THE UPR RIDGE APPEARS TO
HOLD STRONG ENOUGH TO DEFLECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE/ENERGY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS NW
GEORGIA MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH LOWER CHANCES SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL FOR LATE MAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPS FROM
THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S IN THE NORTH GA MTNS TO AROUND 90F ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AREAS FROM DUBLIN TO VIDALIA. AS MOISTURE/HIGHER HUMIDITY
RETURNS...MORNING LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 60-70F.

DJN.83

&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR STRATO CU HAS BEGUN TO ERODE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINAL
SITES BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY DURING
PEAK HEATING...WITH CIGS REMAINING VFR. WINDS WILL BE TRICKY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 6KT OR LESS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MAY FLIRT A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 360
DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE GOING EAST AFTER DARK.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  55  81  58 /   0   5   5   5
ATLANTA         77  58  81  62 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     73  49  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    77  52  82  59 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        81  59  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     76  56  79  59 /   0   0   5   0
MACON           81  56  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            76  51  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  78  53  82  57 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         82  59  84  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....DJN.83
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA




000
FXUS62 KFFC 220752
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
352 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING. 07-08Z /3-4AM EDT/ TEMPS
RANGED FROM AROUND 50F OVER EXTREME NRN/NW GA TO THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE EXTREME SE AREA OF THE CWA /NEAR VIDALIA/. A BAND OF
BKN TO OVC MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND
SHOULD THIN OUT AND EXIT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NW WINDS
WERE STILL UP A BIT /NEAR 10KTS/ IN SPOTS IN RESPONSE TO GRADIENT
BETWEEN SFC HIGH OVER NE ARKANSAS/WRN TN AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
S CAROLINA COAST.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH CENTER IS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN
AR. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MIN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 4 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NE/E AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD
BY THIS EVENING.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
BY MEMORIAL DAY /MONDAY/...A MORE PREVAILING RETURN /SOUTHEAST/
FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPR RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES JUST OFF THE GA/FL COAST. AN UPR LVL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH THE LWR MS VLY BY TUES/WED BUT THE UPR RIDGE APPEARS TO
HOLD STRONG ENOUGH TO DEFLECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE/ENERGY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS NW
GEORGIA MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH LOWER CHANCES SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL FOR LATE MAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPS FROM
THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S IN THE NORTH GA MTNS TO AROUND 90F ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AREAS FROM DUBLIN TO VIDALIA. AS MOISTURE/HIGHER HUMIDITY
RETURNS...MORNING LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 60-70F.

DJN.83

&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR STRATO CU HAS BEGUN TO ERODE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINAL
SITES BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY DURING
PEAK HEATING...WITH CIGS REMAINING VFR. WINDS WILL BE TRICKY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 6KT OR LESS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MAY FLIRT A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 360
DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE GOING EAST AFTER DARK.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  55  81  58 /   0   5   5   5
ATLANTA         77  58  81  62 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     73  49  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    77  52  82  59 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        81  59  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     76  56  79  59 /   0   0   5   0
MACON           81  56  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            76  51  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  78  53  82  57 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         82  59  84  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....DJN.83
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA




000
FXUS62 KCAE 220657
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
257 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TODAY WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR. THERE
WILL BE LESS WIND TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WIND WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT WITH STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION SATURDAY WILL BE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. THE MODELS MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY H5 RIDGING BUILDING
SUNDAY. ALL OF THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER
RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING.
THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH. COULD SEE SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH
BASES 4KFT TO 6KFT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 220657
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
257 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TODAY WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR. THERE
WILL BE LESS WIND TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WIND WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT WITH STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION SATURDAY WILL BE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. THE MODELS MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY H5 RIDGING BUILDING
SUNDAY. ALL OF THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER
RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING.
THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH. COULD SEE SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH
BASES 4KFT TO 6KFT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 220657
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
257 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TODAY WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR. THERE
WILL BE LESS WIND TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WIND WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT WITH STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION SATURDAY WILL BE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. THE MODELS MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY H5 RIDGING BUILDING
SUNDAY. ALL OF THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER
RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING.
THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH. COULD SEE SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH
BASES 4KFT TO 6KFT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 220657
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
257 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TODAY WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR. THERE
WILL BE LESS WIND TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WIND WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT WITH STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION SATURDAY WILL BE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. THE MODELS MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY H5 RIDGING BUILDING
SUNDAY. ALL OF THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER
RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING.
THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH. COULD SEE SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH
BASES 4KFT TO 6KFT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 220657
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
257 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TODAY WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR. THERE
WILL BE LESS WIND TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WIND WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT WITH STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION SATURDAY WILL BE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. THE MODELS MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY H5 RIDGING BUILDING
SUNDAY. ALL OF THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER
RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING.
THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH. COULD SEE SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH
BASES 4KFT TO 6KFT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 220657
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
257 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TODAY WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR. THERE
WILL BE LESS WIND TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WIND WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT WITH STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION SATURDAY WILL BE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. THE MODELS MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH MORE OF AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY H5 RIDGING BUILDING
SUNDAY. ALL OF THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE RIDGE CIRCULATING AN ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SHALLOW WITH STRONG UPPER
RIDGING EARLY LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE WEAKER UPPER RIDGING.
THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH. COULD SEE SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH
BASES 4KFT TO 6KFT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 220526
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
126 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT
MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN
WIND SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY. RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 220526
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
126 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT
MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN
WIND SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY. RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 220526
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
126 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT
MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN
WIND SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY. RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 220526
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
126 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT
MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN
WIND SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY. RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KFFC 220526
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
126 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH GA ARE SLOWLY
RETREATING NORTHWARD... BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTH GA THROUGH
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NW GA. MAY HAVE TO
TWEAK SKY COVER A BIT IN NORTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE... THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. /39

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
WHILE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE
OF THE LAST COLD FRONT...SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW A STRONG 850
INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING STRATOCU MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO TONIGHT AND TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE
CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST. RESULTANT GRADIENT WINDS BETWEEN THE
PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT THOUGH HAVE
SUPPORTED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ISSUANCE THRU THIS EVENING /SEE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS/.

OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES AND SOME LOWER RH AIR IS ON TAP FOR ENDING
OUT THE WORK WEEK TOMORROW. RH SHOULD STILL STAY OUTSIDE LEVELS FOR
FIRE DANGER CONCERN.

TEMPS RATHER COOL TONIGHT...RANGING GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM
/MAYBE EVEN SOME UPPER 40S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTH
GA/... THEN HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORM. WILL BE A VERY
PLEASANT DAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING SOME AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT.

BAKER

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
PATTERN IN FIRST HALF OF LONG TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY UPPER
RIDGE OVER SE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MEAN RH
WITH LIMITED CHANCE FOR PRECIP EXPECTED THRU MONDAY MORNING. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN SC/NC WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT IMPINGING INTO AL/MS/WRN GA AND ASSOCD INCREASE IN
DEEP MOISTURE. SHOULD SEE SCT SHRA/TSRA BEGIN IN EARNEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PERSIST THRU REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THOUGH FLOW WEAKENS GRADUALLY AND BECOMES QUITE WEAK BY THURS.
ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MED RANGE MODELS NOT APPARENT UNTIL WED
WHEN 12Z EC PROGS SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
LOWER MS VALLEY THAN GFS. NOTICED THAT WPC GENERALLY PREFERRING EC
GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE SO MAY BE GFS MORE OF THE OUTLYING SOLUTION.
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER BETWEEN BLEND MEMBERS SO BLEND
GENERALLY ACCEPTED. SCT DIURNAL AFT/EVENING CONVECTION WITH LESS
DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS LIKELY MON THRU THURS.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA
COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR
WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEEKS
END. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR STRATO CU HAS BEGUN TO ERODE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINAL
SITES BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY DURING
PEAK HEATING...WITH CIGS REMAINING VFR. WINDS WILL BE TRICKY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 6KT OR LESS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MAY FLIRT A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 360
DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE GOING EAST AFTER DARK.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  57  82  60 /   0   5   5   5
ATLANTA         77  60  81  63 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     74  51  75  54 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    77  52  81  60 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        82  61  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     76  58  79  60 /   0   0   5   0
MACON           82  57  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            77  53  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  79  54  82  60 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         84  62  85  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 220526
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
126 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH GA ARE SLOWLY
RETREATING NORTHWARD... BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTH GA THROUGH
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NW GA. MAY HAVE TO
TWEAK SKY COVER A BIT IN NORTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE... THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. /39

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
WHILE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE
OF THE LAST COLD FRONT...SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW A STRONG 850
INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING STRATOCU MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO TONIGHT AND TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE
CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST. RESULTANT GRADIENT WINDS BETWEEN THE
PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT THOUGH HAVE
SUPPORTED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ISSUANCE THRU THIS EVENING /SEE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS/.

OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES AND SOME LOWER RH AIR IS ON TAP FOR ENDING
OUT THE WORK WEEK TOMORROW. RH SHOULD STILL STAY OUTSIDE LEVELS FOR
FIRE DANGER CONCERN.

TEMPS RATHER COOL TONIGHT...RANGING GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM
/MAYBE EVEN SOME UPPER 40S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTH
GA/... THEN HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORM. WILL BE A VERY
PLEASANT DAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING SOME AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT.

BAKER

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
PATTERN IN FIRST HALF OF LONG TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY UPPER
RIDGE OVER SE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MEAN RH
WITH LIMITED CHANCE FOR PRECIP EXPECTED THRU MONDAY MORNING. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN SC/NC WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT IMPINGING INTO AL/MS/WRN GA AND ASSOCD INCREASE IN
DEEP MOISTURE. SHOULD SEE SCT SHRA/TSRA BEGIN IN EARNEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PERSIST THRU REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THOUGH FLOW WEAKENS GRADUALLY AND BECOMES QUITE WEAK BY THURS.
ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MED RANGE MODELS NOT APPARENT UNTIL WED
WHEN 12Z EC PROGS SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
LOWER MS VALLEY THAN GFS. NOTICED THAT WPC GENERALLY PREFERRING EC
GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE SO MAY BE GFS MORE OF THE OUTLYING SOLUTION.
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER BETWEEN BLEND MEMBERS SO BLEND
GENERALLY ACCEPTED. SCT DIURNAL AFT/EVENING CONVECTION WITH LESS
DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS LIKELY MON THRU THURS.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA
COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR
WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEEKS
END. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR STRATO CU HAS BEGUN TO ERODE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINAL
SITES BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY DURING
PEAK HEATING...WITH CIGS REMAINING VFR. WINDS WILL BE TRICKY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 6KT OR LESS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MAY FLIRT A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 360
DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE GOING EAST AFTER DARK.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  57  82  60 /   0   5   5   5
ATLANTA         77  60  81  63 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     74  51  75  54 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    77  52  81  60 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        82  61  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     76  58  79  60 /   0   0   5   0
MACON           82  57  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            77  53  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  79  54  82  60 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         84  62  85  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 220526
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
126 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH GA ARE SLOWLY
RETREATING NORTHWARD... BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTH GA THROUGH
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NW GA. MAY HAVE TO
TWEAK SKY COVER A BIT IN NORTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE... THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. /39

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
WHILE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE
OF THE LAST COLD FRONT...SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW A STRONG 850
INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING STRATOCU MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO TONIGHT AND TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE
CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST. RESULTANT GRADIENT WINDS BETWEEN THE
PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT THOUGH HAVE
SUPPORTED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ISSUANCE THRU THIS EVENING /SEE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS/.

OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES AND SOME LOWER RH AIR IS ON TAP FOR ENDING
OUT THE WORK WEEK TOMORROW. RH SHOULD STILL STAY OUTSIDE LEVELS FOR
FIRE DANGER CONCERN.

TEMPS RATHER COOL TONIGHT...RANGING GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM
/MAYBE EVEN SOME UPPER 40S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTH
GA/... THEN HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORM. WILL BE A VERY
PLEASANT DAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING SOME AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT.

BAKER

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
PATTERN IN FIRST HALF OF LONG TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY UPPER
RIDGE OVER SE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MEAN RH
WITH LIMITED CHANCE FOR PRECIP EXPECTED THRU MONDAY MORNING. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN SC/NC WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT IMPINGING INTO AL/MS/WRN GA AND ASSOCD INCREASE IN
DEEP MOISTURE. SHOULD SEE SCT SHRA/TSRA BEGIN IN EARNEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PERSIST THRU REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THOUGH FLOW WEAKENS GRADUALLY AND BECOMES QUITE WEAK BY THURS.
ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MED RANGE MODELS NOT APPARENT UNTIL WED
WHEN 12Z EC PROGS SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
LOWER MS VALLEY THAN GFS. NOTICED THAT WPC GENERALLY PREFERRING EC
GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE SO MAY BE GFS MORE OF THE OUTLYING SOLUTION.
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER BETWEEN BLEND MEMBERS SO BLEND
GENERALLY ACCEPTED. SCT DIURNAL AFT/EVENING CONVECTION WITH LESS
DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS LIKELY MON THRU THURS.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA
COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR
WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEEKS
END. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR STRATO CU HAS BEGUN TO ERODE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINAL
SITES BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY DURING
PEAK HEATING...WITH CIGS REMAINING VFR. WINDS WILL BE TRICKY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 6KT OR LESS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MAY FLIRT A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 360
DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE GOING EAST AFTER DARK.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  57  82  60 /   0   5   5   5
ATLANTA         77  60  81  63 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     74  51  75  54 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    77  52  81  60 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        82  61  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     76  58  79  60 /   0   0   5   0
MACON           82  57  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            77  53  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  79  54  82  60 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         84  62  85  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCHS 220526
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
126 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT
MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN
WIND SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY. RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 220239
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1039 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT
MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS EVENING...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
THERE IS A NOTABLE AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG
PRESSURE RISES...NORTHERLY WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS UPWARDS OF
8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...33/BSH



000
FXUS62 KCHS 220239
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1039 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT
MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS EVENING...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
THERE IS A NOTABLE AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG
PRESSURE RISES...NORTHERLY WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS UPWARDS OF
8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...33/BSH



000
FXUS62 KCHS 220239
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1039 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT
MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS EVENING...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
THERE IS A NOTABLE AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG
PRESSURE RISES...NORTHERLY WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS UPWARDS OF
8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...33/BSH



000
FXUS62 KCHS 220239
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1039 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT
MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS EVENING...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
THERE IS A NOTABLE AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG
PRESSURE RISES...NORTHERLY WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS UPWARDS OF
8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...33/BSH



000
FXUS62 KCHS 220239
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1039 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT
MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS EVENING...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
THERE IS A NOTABLE AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG
PRESSURE RISES...NORTHERLY WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS UPWARDS OF
8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...33/BSH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 220239
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1039 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT
MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS EVENING...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
THERE IS A NOTABLE AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG
PRESSURE RISES...NORTHERLY WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS UPWARDS OF
8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...33/BSH



000
FXUS62 KCHS 220237
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1037 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS EVENING...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
THERE IS A NOTABLE AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG
PRESSURE RISES...NORTHERLY WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS UPWARDS OF
8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...BSH/JAQ/33



000
FXUS62 KCHS 220237
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1037 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS EVENING...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
THERE IS A NOTABLE AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG
PRESSURE RISES...NORTHERLY WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS UPWARDS OF
8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...BSH/JAQ/33




000
FXUS62 KCAE 220232
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1032 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST AND IS DEEPENING AS IT HEADS TOWARD DELMARVA. SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE PEE DEE REGION ALONG THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY AND
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
WHERE MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. HI-RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO PICK
UP ON THIS ACTIVITY BUT EXPECT IT TO END BY 09Z AS CAA INCREASES.
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND ROTATE
FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE A NICE START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S SATURDAY NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S/LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG/OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND SLIDING OFFSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE...THIS
WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN
RETURNING TO THE AREA. ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
TUESDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH. COULD SEE SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH
BASES 4KFT TO 6KFT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 220232
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1032 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST AND IS DEEPENING AS IT HEADS TOWARD DELMARVA. SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE PEE DEE REGION ALONG THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY AND
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
WHERE MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. HI-RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO PICK
UP ON THIS ACTIVITY BUT EXPECT IT TO END BY 09Z AS CAA INCREASES.
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND ROTATE
FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE A NICE START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S SATURDAY NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S/LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG/OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND SLIDING OFFSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE...THIS
WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN
RETURNING TO THE AREA. ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
TUESDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH. COULD SEE SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH
BASES 4KFT TO 6KFT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 220134
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
934 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST AND IS DEEPENING AS IT HEADS TOWARD DELMARVA. SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE PEE DEE REGION ALONG THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY AND
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
WHERE MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. HI-RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO PICK
UP ON THIS ACTIVITY BUT EXPECT IT TO END BY 09Z AS CAA INCREASES.
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND ROTATE
FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE A NICE START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S SATURDAY NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S/LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG/OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND SLIDING OFFSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE...THIS
WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN
RETURNING TO THE AREA. ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
TUESDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING. REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION TROUGH 06Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AROUND 10
KNOTS. COULD SEE SCT/BKN STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND
5KFT AS THE FRONT MOVES THOUGH. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77



000
FXUS62 KCAE 220134
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
934 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST AND IS DEEPENING AS IT HEADS TOWARD DELMARVA. SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE PEE DEE REGION ALONG THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY AND
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
WHERE MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. HI-RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO PICK
UP ON THIS ACTIVITY BUT EXPECT IT TO END BY 09Z AS CAA INCREASES.
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND ROTATE
FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE A NICE START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S SATURDAY NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S/LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG/OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND SLIDING OFFSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE...THIS
WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN
RETURNING TO THE AREA. ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
TUESDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING. REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION TROUGH 06Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AROUND 10
KNOTS. COULD SEE SCT/BKN STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND
5KFT AS THE FRONT MOVES THOUGH. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCHS 220004
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
804 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EARLY THIS EVENING...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE IS A NOTABLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES...NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN WIND
SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY.
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN
LIMITED MOISTURE. GIVEN THE UPSTREAM AIR MASS...HAVE ADJUSTED
LOWS DOWNWARD A BIT WITH THE FORECAST NOW REFLECTING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...BSH/33



000
FXUS62 KCHS 220004
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
804 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EARLY THIS EVENING...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE IS A NOTABLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES...NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN WIND
SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY.
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN
LIMITED MOISTURE. GIVEN THE UPSTREAM AIR MASS...HAVE ADJUSTED
LOWS DOWNWARD A BIT WITH THE FORECAST NOW REFLECTING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...BSH/33




000
FXUS62 KCHS 220004
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
804 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EARLY THIS EVENING...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE IS A NOTABLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES...NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN WIND
SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY.
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN
LIMITED MOISTURE. GIVEN THE UPSTREAM AIR MASS...HAVE ADJUSTED
LOWS DOWNWARD A BIT WITH THE FORECAST NOW REFLECTING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...BSH/33




000
FXUS62 KCHS 220004
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
804 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EARLY THIS EVENING...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE IS A NOTABLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES...NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN WIND
SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY.
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN
LIMITED MOISTURE. GIVEN THE UPSTREAM AIR MASS...HAVE ADJUSTED
LOWS DOWNWARD A BIT WITH THE FORECAST NOW REFLECTING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...BSH/33



000
FXUS62 KCAE 212338
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
738 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST AND THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AND SKIES HAVE BECOME
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY OVERNIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND ROTATE FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE A NICE START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S SATURDAY NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S/LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG/OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND SLIDING OFFSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE...THIS
WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN
RETURNING TO THE AREA. ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
TUESDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING. REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION TROUGH 06Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AROUND 10
KNOTS. COULD SEE SCT/BKN STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND
5KFT AS THE FRONT MOVES THOUGH. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77



000
FXUS62 KCAE 212338
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
738 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST AND THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AND SKIES HAVE BECOME
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY OVERNIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND ROTATE FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE A NICE START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S SATURDAY NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S/LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG/OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND SLIDING OFFSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE...THIS
WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN
RETURNING TO THE AREA. ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
TUESDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING. REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION TROUGH 06Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AROUND 10
KNOTS. COULD SEE SCT/BKN STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND
5KFT AS THE FRONT MOVES THOUGH. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77



000
FXUS62 KCAE 212338
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
738 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST AND THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AND SKIES HAVE BECOME
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY OVERNIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND ROTATE FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE A NICE START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S SATURDAY NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S/LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG/OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND SLIDING OFFSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE...THIS
WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN
RETURNING TO THE AREA. ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
TUESDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING. REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION TROUGH 06Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AROUND 10
KNOTS. COULD SEE SCT/BKN STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND
5KFT AS THE FRONT MOVES THOUGH. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 212338
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
738 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST AND THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AND SKIES HAVE BECOME
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY OVERNIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND ROTATE FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE A NICE START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S SATURDAY NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S/LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG/OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND SLIDING OFFSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE...THIS
WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN
RETURNING TO THE AREA. ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
TUESDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING. REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION TROUGH 06Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AROUND 10
KNOTS. COULD SEE SCT/BKN STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND
5KFT AS THE FRONT MOVES THOUGH. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KFFC 212336
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH GA ARE SLOWLY
RETREATING NORTHWARD... BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTH GA THROUGH
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NW GA. MAY HAVE TO
TWEAK SKY COVER A BIT IN NORTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE... THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. /39


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
WHILE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE
OF THE LAST COLD FRONT...SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW A STRONG 850
INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING STRATOCU MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO TONIGHT AND TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE
CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST. RESULTANT GRADIENT WINDS BETWEEN THE
PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT THOUGH HAVE
SUPPORTED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ISSUANCE THRU THIS EVENING /SEE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS/.

OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES AND SOME LOWER RH AIR IS ON TAP FOR ENDING
OUT THE WORK WEEK TOMORROW. RH SHOULD STILL STAY OUTSIDE LEVELS FOR
FIRE DANGER CONCERN.

TEMPS RATHER COOL TONIGHT...RANGING GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM
/MAYBE EVEN SOME UPPER 40S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTH
GA/... THEN HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORM. WILL BE A VERY
PLEASANT DAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING SOME AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT.

BAKER

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
PATTERN IN FIRST HALF OF LONG TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY UPPER
RIDGE OVER SE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MEAN RH
WITH LIMITED CHANCE FOR PRECIP EXPECTED THRU MONDAY MORNING. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN SC/NC WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT IMPINGING INTO AL/MS/WRN GA AND ASSOCD INCREASE IN
DEEP MOISTURE. SHOULD SEE SCT SHRA/TSRA BEGIN IN EARNEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PERSIST THRU REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THOUGH FLOW WEAKENS GRADUALLY AND BECOMES QUITE WEAK BY THURS.
ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MED RANGE MODELS NOT APPARENT UNTIL WED
WHEN 12Z EC PROGS SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
LOWER MS VALLEY THAN GFS. NOTICED THAT WPC GENERALLY PREFERRING EC
GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE SO MAY BE GFS MORE OF THE OUTLYING SOLUTION.
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER BETWEEN BLEND MEMBERS SO BLEND
GENERALLY ACCEPTED. SCT DIURNAL AFT/EVENING CONVECTION WITH LESS
DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS LIKELY MON THRU THURS.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA
COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR
WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEEKS
END. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT MVFR AND
LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS NORTH GA SHOULD CONTINUE TO RETREAT NORTH. HAVE
SOME CONCERN THESE CLOUDS MAY TRY TO SPREAD BACK SOUTH INTO ATLANTA
AREA LATER THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN... BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST SHOW FEW035 THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE... MAINLY A WIND
FORECAST AS CURRENT NW WINDS AROUND 10-14 KTS WITH 18-22KT GUSTS
SHOULD LOOSE THE GUSTS BY 03Z AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 6-8 KTS BY 08Z.
EXPECT A NE SHIFT NEAR 15Z FRI...THEN BACK NW FOR KATL AFTER 20Z
FRI. COULD SEE FEW040 FRI AFTERNOON WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF WINDS SHIFTING NE. HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  79  57  82 /   5   5   5   5
ATLANTA         56  77  60  81 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     47  74  51  75 /   5   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    50  77  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        58  82  61  85 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     53  76  58  79 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           56  82  57  86 /   0   0   5   0
ROME            50  77  53  82 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  79  54  82 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         62  84  62  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER/39
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...39




000
FXUS62 KFFC 212336
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH GA ARE SLOWLY
RETREATING NORTHWARD... BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTH GA THROUGH
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NW GA. MAY HAVE TO
TWEAK SKY COVER A BIT IN NORTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE... THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. /39


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
WHILE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE
OF THE LAST COLD FRONT...SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW A STRONG 850
INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING STRATOCU MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO TONIGHT AND TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE
CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST. RESULTANT GRADIENT WINDS BETWEEN THE
PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT THOUGH HAVE
SUPPORTED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ISSUANCE THRU THIS EVENING /SEE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS/.

OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES AND SOME LOWER RH AIR IS ON TAP FOR ENDING
OUT THE WORK WEEK TOMORROW. RH SHOULD STILL STAY OUTSIDE LEVELS FOR
FIRE DANGER CONCERN.

TEMPS RATHER COOL TONIGHT...RANGING GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM
/MAYBE EVEN SOME UPPER 40S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTH
GA/... THEN HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORM. WILL BE A VERY
PLEASANT DAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING SOME AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT.

BAKER

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
PATTERN IN FIRST HALF OF LONG TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY UPPER
RIDGE OVER SE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MEAN RH
WITH LIMITED CHANCE FOR PRECIP EXPECTED THRU MONDAY MORNING. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN SC/NC WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT IMPINGING INTO AL/MS/WRN GA AND ASSOCD INCREASE IN
DEEP MOISTURE. SHOULD SEE SCT SHRA/TSRA BEGIN IN EARNEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PERSIST THRU REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THOUGH FLOW WEAKENS GRADUALLY AND BECOMES QUITE WEAK BY THURS.
ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MED RANGE MODELS NOT APPARENT UNTIL WED
WHEN 12Z EC PROGS SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
LOWER MS VALLEY THAN GFS. NOTICED THAT WPC GENERALLY PREFERRING EC
GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE SO MAY BE GFS MORE OF THE OUTLYING SOLUTION.
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER BETWEEN BLEND MEMBERS SO BLEND
GENERALLY ACCEPTED. SCT DIURNAL AFT/EVENING CONVECTION WITH LESS
DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS LIKELY MON THRU THURS.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA
COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR
WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEEKS
END. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT MVFR AND
LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS NORTH GA SHOULD CONTINUE TO RETREAT NORTH. HAVE
SOME CONCERN THESE CLOUDS MAY TRY TO SPREAD BACK SOUTH INTO ATLANTA
AREA LATER THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN... BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST SHOW FEW035 THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE... MAINLY A WIND
FORECAST AS CURRENT NW WINDS AROUND 10-14 KTS WITH 18-22KT GUSTS
SHOULD LOOSE THE GUSTS BY 03Z AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 6-8 KTS BY 08Z.
EXPECT A NE SHIFT NEAR 15Z FRI...THEN BACK NW FOR KATL AFTER 20Z
FRI. COULD SEE FEW040 FRI AFTERNOON WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF WINDS SHIFTING NE. HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  79  57  82 /   5   5   5   5
ATLANTA         56  77  60  81 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     47  74  51  75 /   5   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    50  77  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        58  82  61  85 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     53  76  58  79 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           56  82  57  86 /   0   0   5   0
ROME            50  77  53  82 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  79  54  82 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         62  84  62  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER/39
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...39




000
FXUS62 KFFC 212336
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH GA ARE SLOWLY
RETREATING NORTHWARD... BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTH GA THROUGH
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NW GA. MAY HAVE TO
TWEAK SKY COVER A BIT IN NORTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE... THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. /39


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
WHILE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE
OF THE LAST COLD FRONT...SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW A STRONG 850
INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING STRATOCU MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO TONIGHT AND TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE
CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST. RESULTANT GRADIENT WINDS BETWEEN THE
PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT THOUGH HAVE
SUPPORTED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ISSUANCE THRU THIS EVENING /SEE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS/.

OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES AND SOME LOWER RH AIR IS ON TAP FOR ENDING
OUT THE WORK WEEK TOMORROW. RH SHOULD STILL STAY OUTSIDE LEVELS FOR
FIRE DANGER CONCERN.

TEMPS RATHER COOL TONIGHT...RANGING GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM
/MAYBE EVEN SOME UPPER 40S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTH
GA/... THEN HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORM. WILL BE A VERY
PLEASANT DAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING SOME AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT.

BAKER

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
PATTERN IN FIRST HALF OF LONG TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY UPPER
RIDGE OVER SE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MEAN RH
WITH LIMITED CHANCE FOR PRECIP EXPECTED THRU MONDAY MORNING. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN SC/NC WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT IMPINGING INTO AL/MS/WRN GA AND ASSOCD INCREASE IN
DEEP MOISTURE. SHOULD SEE SCT SHRA/TSRA BEGIN IN EARNEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PERSIST THRU REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THOUGH FLOW WEAKENS GRADUALLY AND BECOMES QUITE WEAK BY THURS.
ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MED RANGE MODELS NOT APPARENT UNTIL WED
WHEN 12Z EC PROGS SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
LOWER MS VALLEY THAN GFS. NOTICED THAT WPC GENERALLY PREFERRING EC
GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE SO MAY BE GFS MORE OF THE OUTLYING SOLUTION.
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER BETWEEN BLEND MEMBERS SO BLEND
GENERALLY ACCEPTED. SCT DIURNAL AFT/EVENING CONVECTION WITH LESS
DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS LIKELY MON THRU THURS.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA
COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR
WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEEKS
END. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT MVFR AND
LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS NORTH GA SHOULD CONTINUE TO RETREAT NORTH. HAVE
SOME CONCERN THESE CLOUDS MAY TRY TO SPREAD BACK SOUTH INTO ATLANTA
AREA LATER THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN... BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST SHOW FEW035 THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE... MAINLY A WIND
FORECAST AS CURRENT NW WINDS AROUND 10-14 KTS WITH 18-22KT GUSTS
SHOULD LOOSE THE GUSTS BY 03Z AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 6-8 KTS BY 08Z.
EXPECT A NE SHIFT NEAR 15Z FRI...THEN BACK NW FOR KATL AFTER 20Z
FRI. COULD SEE FEW040 FRI AFTERNOON WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF WINDS SHIFTING NE. HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  79  57  82 /   5   5   5   5
ATLANTA         56  77  60  81 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     47  74  51  75 /   5   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    50  77  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        58  82  61  85 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     53  76  58  79 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           56  82  57  86 /   0   0   5   0
ROME            50  77  53  82 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  79  54  82 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         62  84  62  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER/39
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...39




000
FXUS62 KFFC 212336
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH GA ARE SLOWLY
RETREATING NORTHWARD... BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTH GA THROUGH
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NW GA. MAY HAVE TO
TWEAK SKY COVER A BIT IN NORTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE... THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. /39


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
WHILE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE
OF THE LAST COLD FRONT...SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW A STRONG 850
INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING STRATOCU MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO TONIGHT AND TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE
CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST. RESULTANT GRADIENT WINDS BETWEEN THE
PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT THOUGH HAVE
SUPPORTED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ISSUANCE THRU THIS EVENING /SEE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS/.

OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES AND SOME LOWER RH AIR IS ON TAP FOR ENDING
OUT THE WORK WEEK TOMORROW. RH SHOULD STILL STAY OUTSIDE LEVELS FOR
FIRE DANGER CONCERN.

TEMPS RATHER COOL TONIGHT...RANGING GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM
/MAYBE EVEN SOME UPPER 40S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTH
GA/... THEN HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORM. WILL BE A VERY
PLEASANT DAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING SOME AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT.

BAKER

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
PATTERN IN FIRST HALF OF LONG TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY UPPER
RIDGE OVER SE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MEAN RH
WITH LIMITED CHANCE FOR PRECIP EXPECTED THRU MONDAY MORNING. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN SC/NC WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT IMPINGING INTO AL/MS/WRN GA AND ASSOCD INCREASE IN
DEEP MOISTURE. SHOULD SEE SCT SHRA/TSRA BEGIN IN EARNEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PERSIST THRU REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THOUGH FLOW WEAKENS GRADUALLY AND BECOMES QUITE WEAK BY THURS.
ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MED RANGE MODELS NOT APPARENT UNTIL WED
WHEN 12Z EC PROGS SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
LOWER MS VALLEY THAN GFS. NOTICED THAT WPC GENERALLY PREFERRING EC
GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE SO MAY BE GFS MORE OF THE OUTLYING SOLUTION.
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER BETWEEN BLEND MEMBERS SO BLEND
GENERALLY ACCEPTED. SCT DIURNAL AFT/EVENING CONVECTION WITH LESS
DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS LIKELY MON THRU THURS.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA
COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR
WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEEKS
END. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT MVFR AND
LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS NORTH GA SHOULD CONTINUE TO RETREAT NORTH. HAVE
SOME CONCERN THESE CLOUDS MAY TRY TO SPREAD BACK SOUTH INTO ATLANTA
AREA LATER THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN... BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST SHOW FEW035 THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE... MAINLY A WIND
FORECAST AS CURRENT NW WINDS AROUND 10-14 KTS WITH 18-22KT GUSTS
SHOULD LOOSE THE GUSTS BY 03Z AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 6-8 KTS BY 08Z.
EXPECT A NE SHIFT NEAR 15Z FRI...THEN BACK NW FOR KATL AFTER 20Z
FRI. COULD SEE FEW040 FRI AFTERNOON WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF WINDS SHIFTING NE. HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  79  57  82 /   5   5   5   5
ATLANTA         56  77  60  81 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     47  74  51  75 /   5   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    50  77  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        58  82  61  85 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     53  76  58  79 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           56  82  57  86 /   0   0   5   0
ROME            50  77  53  82 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  79  54  82 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         62  84  62  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER/39
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...39




000
FXUS62 KFFC 212336
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH GA ARE SLOWLY
RETREATING NORTHWARD... BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTH GA THROUGH
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NW GA. MAY HAVE TO
TWEAK SKY COVER A BIT IN NORTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE... THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. /39


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
WHILE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE
OF THE LAST COLD FRONT...SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW A STRONG 850
INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING STRATOCU MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO TONIGHT AND TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE
CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST. RESULTANT GRADIENT WINDS BETWEEN THE
PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT THOUGH HAVE
SUPPORTED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ISSUANCE THRU THIS EVENING /SEE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS/.

OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES AND SOME LOWER RH AIR IS ON TAP FOR ENDING
OUT THE WORK WEEK TOMORROW. RH SHOULD STILL STAY OUTSIDE LEVELS FOR
FIRE DANGER CONCERN.

TEMPS RATHER COOL TONIGHT...RANGING GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM
/MAYBE EVEN SOME UPPER 40S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTH
GA/... THEN HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORM. WILL BE A VERY
PLEASANT DAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING SOME AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT.

BAKER

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
PATTERN IN FIRST HALF OF LONG TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY UPPER
RIDGE OVER SE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MEAN RH
WITH LIMITED CHANCE FOR PRECIP EXPECTED THRU MONDAY MORNING. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN SC/NC WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT IMPINGING INTO AL/MS/WRN GA AND ASSOCD INCREASE IN
DEEP MOISTURE. SHOULD SEE SCT SHRA/TSRA BEGIN IN EARNEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PERSIST THRU REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THOUGH FLOW WEAKENS GRADUALLY AND BECOMES QUITE WEAK BY THURS.
ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MED RANGE MODELS NOT APPARENT UNTIL WED
WHEN 12Z EC PROGS SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
LOWER MS VALLEY THAN GFS. NOTICED THAT WPC GENERALLY PREFERRING EC
GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE SO MAY BE GFS MORE OF THE OUTLYING SOLUTION.
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER BETWEEN BLEND MEMBERS SO BLEND
GENERALLY ACCEPTED. SCT DIURNAL AFT/EVENING CONVECTION WITH LESS
DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS LIKELY MON THRU THURS.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA
COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR
WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEEKS
END. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT MVFR AND
LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS NORTH GA SHOULD CONTINUE TO RETREAT NORTH. HAVE
SOME CONCERN THESE CLOUDS MAY TRY TO SPREAD BACK SOUTH INTO ATLANTA
AREA LATER THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN... BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST SHOW FEW035 THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE... MAINLY A WIND
FORECAST AS CURRENT NW WINDS AROUND 10-14 KTS WITH 18-22KT GUSTS
SHOULD LOOSE THE GUSTS BY 03Z AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 6-8 KTS BY 08Z.
EXPECT A NE SHIFT NEAR 15Z FRI...THEN BACK NW FOR KATL AFTER 20Z
FRI. COULD SEE FEW040 FRI AFTERNOON WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF WINDS SHIFTING NE. HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  79  57  82 /   5   5   5   5
ATLANTA         56  77  60  81 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     47  74  51  75 /   5   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    50  77  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        58  82  61  85 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     53  76  58  79 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           56  82  57  86 /   0   0   5   0
ROME            50  77  53  82 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  79  54  82 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         62  84  62  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER/39
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...39




000
FXUS62 KFFC 212336
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH GA ARE SLOWLY
RETREATING NORTHWARD... BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTH GA THROUGH
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NW GA. MAY HAVE TO
TWEAK SKY COVER A BIT IN NORTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE... THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. /39


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
WHILE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE
OF THE LAST COLD FRONT...SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW A STRONG 850
INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING STRATOCU MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO TONIGHT AND TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE
CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST. RESULTANT GRADIENT WINDS BETWEEN THE
PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT THOUGH HAVE
SUPPORTED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ISSUANCE THRU THIS EVENING /SEE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS/.

OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES AND SOME LOWER RH AIR IS ON TAP FOR ENDING
OUT THE WORK WEEK TOMORROW. RH SHOULD STILL STAY OUTSIDE LEVELS FOR
FIRE DANGER CONCERN.

TEMPS RATHER COOL TONIGHT...RANGING GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM
/MAYBE EVEN SOME UPPER 40S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTH
GA/... THEN HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORM. WILL BE A VERY
PLEASANT DAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING SOME AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT.

BAKER

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
PATTERN IN FIRST HALF OF LONG TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY UPPER
RIDGE OVER SE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MEAN RH
WITH LIMITED CHANCE FOR PRECIP EXPECTED THRU MONDAY MORNING. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN SC/NC WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT IMPINGING INTO AL/MS/WRN GA AND ASSOCD INCREASE IN
DEEP MOISTURE. SHOULD SEE SCT SHRA/TSRA BEGIN IN EARNEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PERSIST THRU REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THOUGH FLOW WEAKENS GRADUALLY AND BECOMES QUITE WEAK BY THURS.
ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MED RANGE MODELS NOT APPARENT UNTIL WED
WHEN 12Z EC PROGS SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
LOWER MS VALLEY THAN GFS. NOTICED THAT WPC GENERALLY PREFERRING EC
GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE SO MAY BE GFS MORE OF THE OUTLYING SOLUTION.
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER BETWEEN BLEND MEMBERS SO BLEND
GENERALLY ACCEPTED. SCT DIURNAL AFT/EVENING CONVECTION WITH LESS
DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS LIKELY MON THRU THURS.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA
COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR
WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEEKS
END. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT MVFR AND
LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS NORTH GA SHOULD CONTINUE TO RETREAT NORTH. HAVE
SOME CONCERN THESE CLOUDS MAY TRY TO SPREAD BACK SOUTH INTO ATLANTA
AREA LATER THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN... BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST SHOW FEW035 THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE... MAINLY A WIND
FORECAST AS CURRENT NW WINDS AROUND 10-14 KTS WITH 18-22KT GUSTS
SHOULD LOOSE THE GUSTS BY 03Z AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 6-8 KTS BY 08Z.
EXPECT A NE SHIFT NEAR 15Z FRI...THEN BACK NW FOR KATL AFTER 20Z
FRI. COULD SEE FEW040 FRI AFTERNOON WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF WINDS SHIFTING NE. HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  79  57  82 /   5   5   5   5
ATLANTA         56  77  60  81 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     47  74  51  75 /   5   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    50  77  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        58  82  61  85 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     53  76  58  79 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           56  82  57  86 /   0   0   5   0
ROME            50  77  53  82 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  79  54  82 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         62  84  62  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER/39
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...39




000
FXUS62 KFFC 212336
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH GA ARE SLOWLY
RETREATING NORTHWARD... BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTH GA THROUGH
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NW GA. MAY HAVE TO
TWEAK SKY COVER A BIT IN NORTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE... THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. /39


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
WHILE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE
OF THE LAST COLD FRONT...SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW A STRONG 850
INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING STRATOCU MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO TONIGHT AND TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE
CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST. RESULTANT GRADIENT WINDS BETWEEN THE
PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT THOUGH HAVE
SUPPORTED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ISSUANCE THRU THIS EVENING /SEE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS/.

OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES AND SOME LOWER RH AIR IS ON TAP FOR ENDING
OUT THE WORK WEEK TOMORROW. RH SHOULD STILL STAY OUTSIDE LEVELS FOR
FIRE DANGER CONCERN.

TEMPS RATHER COOL TONIGHT...RANGING GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM
/MAYBE EVEN SOME UPPER 40S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTH
GA/... THEN HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORM. WILL BE A VERY
PLEASANT DAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING SOME AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT.

BAKER

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
PATTERN IN FIRST HALF OF LONG TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY UPPER
RIDGE OVER SE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MEAN RH
WITH LIMITED CHANCE FOR PRECIP EXPECTED THRU MONDAY MORNING. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN SC/NC WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT IMPINGING INTO AL/MS/WRN GA AND ASSOCD INCREASE IN
DEEP MOISTURE. SHOULD SEE SCT SHRA/TSRA BEGIN IN EARNEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PERSIST THRU REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THOUGH FLOW WEAKENS GRADUALLY AND BECOMES QUITE WEAK BY THURS.
ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MED RANGE MODELS NOT APPARENT UNTIL WED
WHEN 12Z EC PROGS SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
LOWER MS VALLEY THAN GFS. NOTICED THAT WPC GENERALLY PREFERRING EC
GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE SO MAY BE GFS MORE OF THE OUTLYING SOLUTION.
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER BETWEEN BLEND MEMBERS SO BLEND
GENERALLY ACCEPTED. SCT DIURNAL AFT/EVENING CONVECTION WITH LESS
DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS LIKELY MON THRU THURS.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA
COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR
WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEEKS
END. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT MVFR AND
LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS NORTH GA SHOULD CONTINUE TO RETREAT NORTH. HAVE
SOME CONCERN THESE CLOUDS MAY TRY TO SPREAD BACK SOUTH INTO ATLANTA
AREA LATER THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN... BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST SHOW FEW035 THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE... MAINLY A WIND
FORECAST AS CURRENT NW WINDS AROUND 10-14 KTS WITH 18-22KT GUSTS
SHOULD LOOSE THE GUSTS BY 03Z AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 6-8 KTS BY 08Z.
EXPECT A NE SHIFT NEAR 15Z FRI...THEN BACK NW FOR KATL AFTER 20Z
FRI. COULD SEE FEW040 FRI AFTERNOON WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF WINDS SHIFTING NE. HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  79  57  82 /   5   5   5   5
ATLANTA         56  77  60  81 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     47  74  51  75 /   5   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    50  77  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        58  82  61  85 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     53  76  58  79 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           56  82  57  86 /   0   0   5   0
ROME            50  77  53  82 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  79  54  82 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         62  84  62  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER/39
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...39




000
FXUS62 KFFC 212336
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH GA ARE SLOWLY
RETREATING NORTHWARD... BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTH GA THROUGH
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NW GA. MAY HAVE TO
TWEAK SKY COVER A BIT IN NORTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE... THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. /39


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
WHILE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE
OF THE LAST COLD FRONT...SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW A STRONG 850
INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING STRATOCU MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO TONIGHT AND TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE
CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST. RESULTANT GRADIENT WINDS BETWEEN THE
PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT THOUGH HAVE
SUPPORTED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ISSUANCE THRU THIS EVENING /SEE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS/.

OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES AND SOME LOWER RH AIR IS ON TAP FOR ENDING
OUT THE WORK WEEK TOMORROW. RH SHOULD STILL STAY OUTSIDE LEVELS FOR
FIRE DANGER CONCERN.

TEMPS RATHER COOL TONIGHT...RANGING GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM
/MAYBE EVEN SOME UPPER 40S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTH
GA/... THEN HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORM. WILL BE A VERY
PLEASANT DAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING SOME AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT.

BAKER

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
PATTERN IN FIRST HALF OF LONG TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY UPPER
RIDGE OVER SE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MEAN RH
WITH LIMITED CHANCE FOR PRECIP EXPECTED THRU MONDAY MORNING. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN SC/NC WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT IMPINGING INTO AL/MS/WRN GA AND ASSOCD INCREASE IN
DEEP MOISTURE. SHOULD SEE SCT SHRA/TSRA BEGIN IN EARNEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PERSIST THRU REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THOUGH FLOW WEAKENS GRADUALLY AND BECOMES QUITE WEAK BY THURS.
ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MED RANGE MODELS NOT APPARENT UNTIL WED
WHEN 12Z EC PROGS SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
LOWER MS VALLEY THAN GFS. NOTICED THAT WPC GENERALLY PREFERRING EC
GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE SO MAY BE GFS MORE OF THE OUTLYING SOLUTION.
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER BETWEEN BLEND MEMBERS SO BLEND
GENERALLY ACCEPTED. SCT DIURNAL AFT/EVENING CONVECTION WITH LESS
DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS LIKELY MON THRU THURS.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA
COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR
WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEEKS
END. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT MVFR AND
LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS NORTH GA SHOULD CONTINUE TO RETREAT NORTH. HAVE
SOME CONCERN THESE CLOUDS MAY TRY TO SPREAD BACK SOUTH INTO ATLANTA
AREA LATER THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN... BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST SHOW FEW035 THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE... MAINLY A WIND
FORECAST AS CURRENT NW WINDS AROUND 10-14 KTS WITH 18-22KT GUSTS
SHOULD LOOSE THE GUSTS BY 03Z AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 6-8 KTS BY 08Z.
EXPECT A NE SHIFT NEAR 15Z FRI...THEN BACK NW FOR KATL AFTER 20Z
FRI. COULD SEE FEW040 FRI AFTERNOON WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF WINDS SHIFTING NE. HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  79  57  82 /   5   5   5   5
ATLANTA         56  77  60  81 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     47  74  51  75 /   5   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    50  77  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        58  82  61  85 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     53  76  58  79 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           56  82  57  86 /   0   0   5   0
ROME            50  77  53  82 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  79  54  82 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         62  84  62  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER/39
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...39




000
FXUS62 KCAE 212058
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
458 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS MADE IT TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AND SKIES
HAVE BECOME CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY
OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND ROTATE FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE A NICE START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S SATURDAY NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S/LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG/OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND SLIDING OFFSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE...THIS
WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN
RETURNING TO THE AREA. ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
TUESDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MIDLANDS THIS EVENING AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. COLD/DRY ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL CLEAR
THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFTING NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 212058
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
458 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS MADE IT TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AND SKIES
HAVE BECOME CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY
OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND ROTATE FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE A NICE START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S SATURDAY NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S/LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG/OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND SLIDING OFFSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE...THIS
WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN
RETURNING TO THE AREA. ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
TUESDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MIDLANDS THIS EVENING AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. COLD/DRY ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL CLEAR
THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFTING NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 212058
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
458 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS MADE IT TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AND SKIES
HAVE BECOME CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY
OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND ROTATE FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE A NICE START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S SATURDAY NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S/LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG/OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND SLIDING OFFSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE...THIS
WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN
RETURNING TO THE AREA. ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
TUESDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MIDLANDS THIS EVENING AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. COLD/DRY ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL CLEAR
THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFTING NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 212058
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
458 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS MADE IT TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AND SKIES
HAVE BECOME CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY
OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND ROTATE FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE A NICE START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S SATURDAY NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S/LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG/OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND SLIDING OFFSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE...THIS
WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN
RETURNING TO THE AREA. ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
TUESDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MIDLANDS THIS EVENING AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. COLD/DRY ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL CLEAR
THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFTING NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCHS 211944
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
344 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...SKIES ARE TOTALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY
REGION. EVEN THESE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT EVEN FURTHER. DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT
NICELY AND CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE MID TO LOW 60S. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL FINALLY DRAG ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NOTABLE AIRMASS CHANGE AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE FORECAST IS DRY WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 60S
INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN THE 8-12 MPH RANGE...SHIFTING
AROUND BE MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND MORE
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL PUSH OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL
TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL
MARINE ZONES VERY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25
KT POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2-
3 FT WITHIN 20 NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES
OF NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/33



000
FXUS62 KCHS 211944
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
344 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...SKIES ARE TOTALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY
REGION. EVEN THESE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT EVEN FURTHER. DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT
NICELY AND CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE MID TO LOW 60S. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL FINALLY DRAG ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NOTABLE AIRMASS CHANGE AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE FORECAST IS DRY WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 60S
INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN THE 8-12 MPH RANGE...SHIFTING
AROUND BE MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND MORE
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL PUSH OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL
TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL
MARINE ZONES VERY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25
KT POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2-
3 FT WITHIN 20 NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES
OF NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/33




000
FXUS62 KCHS 211944
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
344 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...SKIES ARE TOTALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY
REGION. EVEN THESE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT EVEN FURTHER. DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT
NICELY AND CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE MID TO LOW 60S. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL FINALLY DRAG ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NOTABLE AIRMASS CHANGE AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE FORECAST IS DRY WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 60S
INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN THE 8-12 MPH RANGE...SHIFTING
AROUND BE MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND MORE
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL PUSH OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL
TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL
MARINE ZONES VERY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25
KT POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2-
3 FT WITHIN 20 NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES
OF NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/33



000
FXUS62 KCHS 211944
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
344 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...SKIES ARE TOTALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY
REGION. EVEN THESE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT EVEN FURTHER. DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT
NICELY AND CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE MID TO LOW 60S. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL FINALLY DRAG ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NOTABLE AIRMASS CHANGE AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE FORECAST IS DRY WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 60S
INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN THE 8-12 MPH RANGE...SHIFTING
AROUND BE MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND MORE
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL PUSH OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL
TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL
MARINE ZONES VERY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25
KT POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2-
3 FT WITHIN 20 NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES
OF NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/33




000
FXUS62 KFFC 211919
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE
OF THE LAST COLD FRONT...SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW A STRONG 850
INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING STRATOCU MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO TONIGHT AND TYPICAL
DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST. RESULTANT GRADIENT WINDS
BETWEEN THE PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT
THOUGH HAVE SUPPORTED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ISSUANCE THRU THIS
EVENING /SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS/.

OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES AND SOME LOWER RH AIR IS ON TAP FOR ENDING
OUT THE WORK WEEK TOMORROW. RH SHOULD STILL STAY OUTSIDE LEVELS FOR
FIRE DANGER CONCERN.

TEMPS RATHER COOL TONIGHT...RANGING GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM
/MAYBE EVEN SOME UPPER 40S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTH
GA/... THEN HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORM. WILL BE A VERY
PLEASANT DAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING SOME AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT.

BAKER

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATTERN IN FIRST HALF OF LONG TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY UPPER
RIDGE OVER SE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MEAN RH
WITH LIMITED CHANCE FOR PRECIP EXPECTED THRU MONDAY MORNING. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN SC/NC WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT IMPINGING INTO AL/MS/WRN GA AND ASSOCD INCREASE IN
DEEP MOISTURE. SHOULD SEE SCT SHRA/TSRA BEGIN IN EARNEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PERSIST THRU REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THOUGH FLOW WEAKENS GRADUALLY AND BECOMES QUITE WEAK BY THURS.
ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MED RANGE MODELS NOT APPARENT UNTIL WED
WHEN 12Z EC PROGS SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
LOWER MS VALLEY THAN GFS. NOTICED THAT WPC GENERALLY PREFERRING EC
GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE SO MAY BE GFS MORE OF THE OUTLYING SOLUTION.
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER BETWEEN BLEND MEMBERS SO BLEND
GENERALLY ACCEPTED. SCT DIURNAL AFT/EVENING CONVECTION WITH LESS
DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS LIKELY MON THRU THURS.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA
COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR
WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEEKS
END. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STRATOCU SHOULD REMAIN IN 3500-4500 FT
RANGE ACROSS KCSG...KATL AND NEARBY SITES INTO THIS EVENING WITH
GRADUAL SCATTERING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO LINGER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING OTHERWISE SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO FEW 4 KFT.
INITIAL NW WINDS AT 10-14 KTS GUSTING 18-24 KTS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO NEAR 7 KTS BY 08Z. EXPECT A NE SHIFT NEAR
13-15Z THEN BACK NW FOR KATL AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CLEARING.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  79  57  82 /   5   5   5   5
ATLANTA         56  77  60  81 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     47  74  51  75 /   5   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    50  77  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        58  82  61  85 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     53  76  58  79 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           56  82  57  86 /   0   0   5   0
ROME            50  77  53  82 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  79  54  82 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         62  84  62  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS62 KFFC 211919
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE
OF THE LAST COLD FRONT...SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW A STRONG 850
INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING STRATOCU MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO TONIGHT AND TYPICAL
DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST. RESULTANT GRADIENT WINDS
BETWEEN THE PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT
THOUGH HAVE SUPPORTED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ISSUANCE THRU THIS
EVENING /SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS/.

OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES AND SOME LOWER RH AIR IS ON TAP FOR ENDING
OUT THE WORK WEEK TOMORROW. RH SHOULD STILL STAY OUTSIDE LEVELS FOR
FIRE DANGER CONCERN.

TEMPS RATHER COOL TONIGHT...RANGING GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM
/MAYBE EVEN SOME UPPER 40S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTH
GA/... THEN HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORM. WILL BE A VERY
PLEASANT DAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING SOME AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT.

BAKER

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATTERN IN FIRST HALF OF LONG TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY UPPER
RIDGE OVER SE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MEAN RH
WITH LIMITED CHANCE FOR PRECIP EXPECTED THRU MONDAY MORNING. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN SC/NC WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT IMPINGING INTO AL/MS/WRN GA AND ASSOCD INCREASE IN
DEEP MOISTURE. SHOULD SEE SCT SHRA/TSRA BEGIN IN EARNEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PERSIST THRU REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THOUGH FLOW WEAKENS GRADUALLY AND BECOMES QUITE WEAK BY THURS.
ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MED RANGE MODELS NOT APPARENT UNTIL WED
WHEN 12Z EC PROGS SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
LOWER MS VALLEY THAN GFS. NOTICED THAT WPC GENERALLY PREFERRING EC
GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE SO MAY BE GFS MORE OF THE OUTLYING SOLUTION.
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER BETWEEN BLEND MEMBERS SO BLEND
GENERALLY ACCEPTED. SCT DIURNAL AFT/EVENING CONVECTION WITH LESS
DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS LIKELY MON THRU THURS.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA
COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR
WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEEKS
END. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STRATOCU SHOULD REMAIN IN 3500-4500 FT
RANGE ACROSS KCSG...KATL AND NEARBY SITES INTO THIS EVENING WITH
GRADUAL SCATTERING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO LINGER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING OTHERWISE SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO FEW 4 KFT.
INITIAL NW WINDS AT 10-14 KTS GUSTING 18-24 KTS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO NEAR 7 KTS BY 08Z. EXPECT A NE SHIFT NEAR
13-15Z THEN BACK NW FOR KATL AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CLEARING.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  79  57  82 /   5   5   5   5
ATLANTA         56  77  60  81 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     47  74  51  75 /   5   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    50  77  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        58  82  61  85 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     53  76  58  79 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           56  82  57  86 /   0   0   5   0
ROME            50  77  53  82 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  79  54  82 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         62  84  62  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS62 KFFC 211919
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE
OF THE LAST COLD FRONT...SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW A STRONG 850
INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING STRATOCU MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO TONIGHT AND TYPICAL
DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST. RESULTANT GRADIENT WINDS
BETWEEN THE PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT
THOUGH HAVE SUPPORTED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ISSUANCE THRU THIS
EVENING /SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS/.

OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES AND SOME LOWER RH AIR IS ON TAP FOR ENDING
OUT THE WORK WEEK TOMORROW. RH SHOULD STILL STAY OUTSIDE LEVELS FOR
FIRE DANGER CONCERN.

TEMPS RATHER COOL TONIGHT...RANGING GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM
/MAYBE EVEN SOME UPPER 40S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTH
GA/... THEN HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORM. WILL BE A VERY
PLEASANT DAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING SOME AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT.

BAKER

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATTERN IN FIRST HALF OF LONG TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY UPPER
RIDGE OVER SE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MEAN RH
WITH LIMITED CHANCE FOR PRECIP EXPECTED THRU MONDAY MORNING. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN SC/NC WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT IMPINGING INTO AL/MS/WRN GA AND ASSOCD INCREASE IN
DEEP MOISTURE. SHOULD SEE SCT SHRA/TSRA BEGIN IN EARNEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PERSIST THRU REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THOUGH FLOW WEAKENS GRADUALLY AND BECOMES QUITE WEAK BY THURS.
ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MED RANGE MODELS NOT APPARENT UNTIL WED
WHEN 12Z EC PROGS SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
LOWER MS VALLEY THAN GFS. NOTICED THAT WPC GENERALLY PREFERRING EC
GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE SO MAY BE GFS MORE OF THE OUTLYING SOLUTION.
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER BETWEEN BLEND MEMBERS SO BLEND
GENERALLY ACCEPTED. SCT DIURNAL AFT/EVENING CONVECTION WITH LESS
DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS LIKELY MON THRU THURS.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA
COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR
WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEEKS
END. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STRATOCU SHOULD REMAIN IN 3500-4500 FT
RANGE ACROSS KCSG...KATL AND NEARBY SITES INTO THIS EVENING WITH
GRADUAL SCATTERING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO LINGER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING OTHERWISE SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO FEW 4 KFT.
INITIAL NW WINDS AT 10-14 KTS GUSTING 18-24 KTS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO NEAR 7 KTS BY 08Z. EXPECT A NE SHIFT NEAR
13-15Z THEN BACK NW FOR KATL AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CLEARING.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  79  57  82 /   5   5   5   5
ATLANTA         56  77  60  81 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     47  74  51  75 /   5   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    50  77  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        58  82  61  85 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     53  76  58  79 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           56  82  57  86 /   0   0   5   0
ROME            50  77  53  82 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  79  54  82 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         62  84  62  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS62 KFFC 211919
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE
OF THE LAST COLD FRONT...SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW A STRONG 850
INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING STRATOCU MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO TONIGHT AND TYPICAL
DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST. RESULTANT GRADIENT WINDS
BETWEEN THE PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT
THOUGH HAVE SUPPORTED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ISSUANCE THRU THIS
EVENING /SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS/.

OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES AND SOME LOWER RH AIR IS ON TAP FOR ENDING
OUT THE WORK WEEK TOMORROW. RH SHOULD STILL STAY OUTSIDE LEVELS FOR
FIRE DANGER CONCERN.

TEMPS RATHER COOL TONIGHT...RANGING GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM
/MAYBE EVEN SOME UPPER 40S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTH
GA/... THEN HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORM. WILL BE A VERY
PLEASANT DAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING SOME AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT.

BAKER

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATTERN IN FIRST HALF OF LONG TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY UPPER
RIDGE OVER SE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MEAN RH
WITH LIMITED CHANCE FOR PRECIP EXPECTED THRU MONDAY MORNING. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN SC/NC WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT IMPINGING INTO AL/MS/WRN GA AND ASSOCD INCREASE IN
DEEP MOISTURE. SHOULD SEE SCT SHRA/TSRA BEGIN IN EARNEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PERSIST THRU REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THOUGH FLOW WEAKENS GRADUALLY AND BECOMES QUITE WEAK BY THURS.
ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MED RANGE MODELS NOT APPARENT UNTIL WED
WHEN 12Z EC PROGS SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
LOWER MS VALLEY THAN GFS. NOTICED THAT WPC GENERALLY PREFERRING EC
GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE SO MAY BE GFS MORE OF THE OUTLYING SOLUTION.
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER BETWEEN BLEND MEMBERS SO BLEND
GENERALLY ACCEPTED. SCT DIURNAL AFT/EVENING CONVECTION WITH LESS
DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS LIKELY MON THRU THURS.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA
COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR
WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEEKS
END. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STRATOCU SHOULD REMAIN IN 3500-4500 FT
RANGE ACROSS KCSG...KATL AND NEARBY SITES INTO THIS EVENING WITH
GRADUAL SCATTERING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO LINGER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING OTHERWISE SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO FEW 4 KFT.
INITIAL NW WINDS AT 10-14 KTS GUSTING 18-24 KTS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO NEAR 7 KTS BY 08Z. EXPECT A NE SHIFT NEAR
13-15Z THEN BACK NW FOR KATL AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CLEARING.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  79  57  82 /   5   5   5   5
ATLANTA         56  77  60  81 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     47  74  51  75 /   5   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    50  77  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        58  82  61  85 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     53  76  58  79 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           56  82  57  86 /   0   0   5   0
ROME            50  77  53  82 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  79  54  82 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         62  84  62  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS62 KFFC 211919
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE
OF THE LAST COLD FRONT...SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW A STRONG 850
INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING STRATOCU MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO TONIGHT AND TYPICAL
DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST. RESULTANT GRADIENT WINDS
BETWEEN THE PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT
THOUGH HAVE SUPPORTED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ISSUANCE THRU THIS
EVENING /SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS/.

OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES AND SOME LOWER RH AIR IS ON TAP FOR ENDING
OUT THE WORK WEEK TOMORROW. RH SHOULD STILL STAY OUTSIDE LEVELS FOR
FIRE DANGER CONCERN.

TEMPS RATHER COOL TONIGHT...RANGING GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM
/MAYBE EVEN SOME UPPER 40S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTH
GA/... THEN HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORM. WILL BE A VERY
PLEASANT DAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING SOME AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT.

BAKER

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATTERN IN FIRST HALF OF LONG TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY UPPER
RIDGE OVER SE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MEAN RH
WITH LIMITED CHANCE FOR PRECIP EXPECTED THRU MONDAY MORNING. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN SC/NC WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT IMPINGING INTO AL/MS/WRN GA AND ASSOCD INCREASE IN
DEEP MOISTURE. SHOULD SEE SCT SHRA/TSRA BEGIN IN EARNEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PERSIST THRU REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THOUGH FLOW WEAKENS GRADUALLY AND BECOMES QUITE WEAK BY THURS.
ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MED RANGE MODELS NOT APPARENT UNTIL WED
WHEN 12Z EC PROGS SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
LOWER MS VALLEY THAN GFS. NOTICED THAT WPC GENERALLY PREFERRING EC
GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE SO MAY BE GFS MORE OF THE OUTLYING SOLUTION.
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER BETWEEN BLEND MEMBERS SO BLEND
GENERALLY ACCEPTED. SCT DIURNAL AFT/EVENING CONVECTION WITH LESS
DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS LIKELY MON THRU THURS.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA
COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR
WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEEKS
END. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STRATOCU SHOULD REMAIN IN 3500-4500 FT
RANGE ACROSS KCSG...KATL AND NEARBY SITES INTO THIS EVENING WITH
GRADUAL SCATTERING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO LINGER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING OTHERWISE SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO FEW 4 KFT.
INITIAL NW WINDS AT 10-14 KTS GUSTING 18-24 KTS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO NEAR 7 KTS BY 08Z. EXPECT A NE SHIFT NEAR
13-15Z THEN BACK NW FOR KATL AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CLEARING.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  79  57  82 /   5   5   5   5
ATLANTA         56  77  60  81 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     47  74  51  75 /   5   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    50  77  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        58  82  61  85 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     53  76  58  79 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           56  82  57  86 /   0   0   5   0
ROME            50  77  53  82 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  79  54  82 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         62  84  62  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS62 KFFC 211919
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
319 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE
OF THE LAST COLD FRONT...SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW A STRONG 850
INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING STRATOCU MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO TONIGHT AND TYPICAL
DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST. RESULTANT GRADIENT WINDS
BETWEEN THE PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT
THOUGH HAVE SUPPORTED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ISSUANCE THRU THIS
EVENING /SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS/.

OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES AND SOME LOWER RH AIR IS ON TAP FOR ENDING
OUT THE WORK WEEK TOMORROW. RH SHOULD STILL STAY OUTSIDE LEVELS FOR
FIRE DANGER CONCERN.

TEMPS RATHER COOL TONIGHT...RANGING GENERALLY 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM
/MAYBE EVEN SOME UPPER 40S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTH
GA/... THEN HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORM. WILL BE A VERY
PLEASANT DAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING SOME AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT.

BAKER

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATTERN IN FIRST HALF OF LONG TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY UPPER
RIDGE OVER SE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL MEAN RH
WITH LIMITED CHANCE FOR PRECIP EXPECTED THRU MONDAY MORNING. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN SC/NC WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT IMPINGING INTO AL/MS/WRN GA AND ASSOCD INCREASE IN
DEEP MOISTURE. SHOULD SEE SCT SHRA/TSRA BEGIN IN EARNEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PERSIST THRU REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THOUGH FLOW WEAKENS GRADUALLY AND BECOMES QUITE WEAK BY THURS.
ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MED RANGE MODELS NOT APPARENT UNTIL WED
WHEN 12Z EC PROGS SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
LOWER MS VALLEY THAN GFS. NOTICED THAT WPC GENERALLY PREFERRING EC
GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE SO MAY BE GFS MORE OF THE OUTLYING SOLUTION.
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER BETWEEN BLEND MEMBERS SO BLEND
GENERALLY ACCEPTED. SCT DIURNAL AFT/EVENING CONVECTION WITH LESS
DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS LIKELY MON THRU THURS.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA
COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR
WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEEKS
END. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STRATOCU SHOULD REMAIN IN 3500-4500 FT
RANGE ACROSS KCSG...KATL AND NEARBY SITES INTO THIS EVENING WITH
GRADUAL SCATTERING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO LINGER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING OTHERWISE SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO FEW 4 KFT.
INITIAL NW WINDS AT 10-14 KTS GUSTING 18-24 KTS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO NEAR 7 KTS BY 08Z. EXPECT A NE SHIFT NEAR
13-15Z THEN BACK NW FOR KATL AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CLEARING.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  79  57  82 /   5   5   5   5
ATLANTA         56  77  60  81 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     47  74  51  75 /   5   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    50  77  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        58  82  61  85 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     53  76  58  79 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           56  82  57  86 /   0   0   5   0
ROME            50  77  53  82 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  79  54  82 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         62  84  62  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS62 KFFC 211827
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
227 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

.UPDATE...
ENHANCED GRADIENT WINDS HAVE STARTED EARLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE RAISED MAGNITUDES BASED ON OBSERVED
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NEAR 20 KTS AND SUPPORTIVE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE OF SFC MAGS 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THIS ALSO HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE
OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN GA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY.

HI-RES MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS DRY...EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TODAY. PWATS WILL REMAIN AOB 1 INCH TODAY...WITH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE
HAVING BEEN SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE PROGGING A
SEABREEZE ALONG THE GULF COAST...BUT THE FEATURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TODAY
AND TOMORROW.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY
AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES
IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER
RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEEKS END.  GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.
ENHANCED GRADIENT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK TO RESULT IN NORTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DRY FUELS HAS WARRANTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. RH VALUES SHOULD STAY
OUTSIDE CRITICAL LEVELS GENERALLY 35 TO 45 PERCENT TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD WEAKEN FOR FRIDAY AND RH VALUES LOOK TO BE 30 TO 35 PERCENT
THEREFORE NO FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEN.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STRATOCU SHOULD REMAIN IN 3500-4500 FT
RANGE ACROSS KCSG...KATL AND NEARBY SITES INTO THIS EVENING WITH
GRADUAL SCATTERING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO LINGER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING OTHERWISE SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO FEW 4 KFT.
INITIAL NW WINDS AT 10-14 KTS GUSTING 18-24 KTS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO NEAR 7 KTS BY 08Z. EXPECT A NE SHIFT NEAR
13-15Z THEN BACK NW FOR KATL AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CLEARING.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  55  79  57 /  10   5   5   5
ATLANTA         79  56  79  60 /  10   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     72  47  74  50 /  10   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    76  51  77  52 /  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        85  59  83  61 /  10   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     79  55  77  58 /  10   5   5   5
MACON           87  57  82  58 /  10   0   0   5
ROME            76  52  77  52 /  10   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  81  53  79  55 /  10   0   0   5
VIDALIA         91  63  84  61 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA/BAKER
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS62 KFFC 211827
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
227 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

.UPDATE...
ENHANCED GRADIENT WINDS HAVE STARTED EARLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE RAISED MAGNITUDES BASED ON OBSERVED
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NEAR 20 KTS AND SUPPORTIVE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE OF SFC MAGS 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THIS ALSO HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE
OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN GA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY.

HI-RES MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS DRY...EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TODAY. PWATS WILL REMAIN AOB 1 INCH TODAY...WITH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE
HAVING BEEN SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE PROGGING A
SEABREEZE ALONG THE GULF COAST...BUT THE FEATURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TODAY
AND TOMORROW.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY
AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES
IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER
RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEEKS END.  GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.
ENHANCED GRADIENT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK TO RESULT IN NORTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DRY FUELS HAS WARRANTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. RH VALUES SHOULD STAY
OUTSIDE CRITICAL LEVELS GENERALLY 35 TO 45 PERCENT TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD WEAKEN FOR FRIDAY AND RH VALUES LOOK TO BE 30 TO 35 PERCENT
THEREFORE NO FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEN.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STRATOCU SHOULD REMAIN IN 3500-4500 FT
RANGE ACROSS KCSG...KATL AND NEARBY SITES INTO THIS EVENING WITH
GRADUAL SCATTERING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO LINGER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING OTHERWISE SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO FEW 4 KFT.
INITIAL NW WINDS AT 10-14 KTS GUSTING 18-24 KTS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO NEAR 7 KTS BY 08Z. EXPECT A NE SHIFT NEAR
13-15Z THEN BACK NW FOR KATL AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CLEARING.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  55  79  57 /  10   5   5   5
ATLANTA         79  56  79  60 /  10   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     72  47  74  50 /  10   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    76  51  77  52 /  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        85  59  83  61 /  10   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     79  55  77  58 /  10   5   5   5
MACON           87  57  82  58 /  10   0   0   5
ROME            76  52  77  52 /  10   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  81  53  79  55 /  10   0   0   5
VIDALIA         91  63  84  61 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA/BAKER
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS62 KFFC 211827
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
227 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

.UPDATE...
ENHANCED GRADIENT WINDS HAVE STARTED EARLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE RAISED MAGNITUDES BASED ON OBSERVED
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NEAR 20 KTS AND SUPPORTIVE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE OF SFC MAGS 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THIS ALSO HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE
OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN GA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY.

HI-RES MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS DRY...EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TODAY. PWATS WILL REMAIN AOB 1 INCH TODAY...WITH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE
HAVING BEEN SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE PROGGING A
SEABREEZE ALONG THE GULF COAST...BUT THE FEATURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TODAY
AND TOMORROW.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY
AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES
IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER
RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEEKS END.  GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.
ENHANCED GRADIENT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK TO RESULT IN NORTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DRY FUELS HAS WARRANTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. RH VALUES SHOULD STAY
OUTSIDE CRITICAL LEVELS GENERALLY 35 TO 45 PERCENT TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD WEAKEN FOR FRIDAY AND RH VALUES LOOK TO BE 30 TO 35 PERCENT
THEREFORE NO FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEN.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STRATOCU SHOULD REMAIN IN 3500-4500 FT
RANGE ACROSS KCSG...KATL AND NEARBY SITES INTO THIS EVENING WITH
GRADUAL SCATTERING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO LINGER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING OTHERWISE SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO FEW 4 KFT.
INITIAL NW WINDS AT 10-14 KTS GUSTING 18-24 KTS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO NEAR 7 KTS BY 08Z. EXPECT A NE SHIFT NEAR
13-15Z THEN BACK NW FOR KATL AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CLEARING.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  55  79  57 /  10   5   5   5
ATLANTA         79  56  79  60 /  10   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     72  47  74  50 /  10   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    76  51  77  52 /  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        85  59  83  61 /  10   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     79  55  77  58 /  10   5   5   5
MACON           87  57  82  58 /  10   0   0   5
ROME            76  52  77  52 /  10   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  81  53  79  55 /  10   0   0   5
VIDALIA         91  63  84  61 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA/BAKER
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS62 KFFC 211827
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
227 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

.UPDATE...
ENHANCED GRADIENT WINDS HAVE STARTED EARLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE RAISED MAGNITUDES BASED ON OBSERVED
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NEAR 20 KTS AND SUPPORTIVE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE OF SFC MAGS 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THIS ALSO HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE
OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN GA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY.

HI-RES MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS DRY...EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TODAY. PWATS WILL REMAIN AOB 1 INCH TODAY...WITH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE
HAVING BEEN SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE PROGGING A
SEABREEZE ALONG THE GULF COAST...BUT THE FEATURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TODAY
AND TOMORROW.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY
AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES
IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER
RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEEKS END.  GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.
ENHANCED GRADIENT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK TO RESULT IN NORTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DRY FUELS HAS WARRANTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. RH VALUES SHOULD STAY
OUTSIDE CRITICAL LEVELS GENERALLY 35 TO 45 PERCENT TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD WEAKEN FOR FRIDAY AND RH VALUES LOOK TO BE 30 TO 35 PERCENT
THEREFORE NO FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEN.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STRATOCU SHOULD REMAIN IN 3500-4500 FT
RANGE ACROSS KCSG...KATL AND NEARBY SITES INTO THIS EVENING WITH
GRADUAL SCATTERING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO LINGER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING OTHERWISE SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO FEW 4 KFT.
INITIAL NW WINDS AT 10-14 KTS GUSTING 18-24 KTS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO NEAR 7 KTS BY 08Z. EXPECT A NE SHIFT NEAR
13-15Z THEN BACK NW FOR KATL AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CLEARING.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  55  79  57 /  10   5   5   5
ATLANTA         79  56  79  60 /  10   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     72  47  74  50 /  10   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    76  51  77  52 /  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        85  59  83  61 /  10   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     79  55  77  58 /  10   5   5   5
MACON           87  57  82  58 /  10   0   0   5
ROME            76  52  77  52 /  10   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  81  53  79  55 /  10   0   0   5
VIDALIA         91  63  84  61 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA/BAKER
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS62 KCAE 211821
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
221 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AT 18Z. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PEE DEE REGION WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING. BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OF THE
PEE DEE INTO EASTERN NORTH CARLOLINA. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...A FEW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT BUT MOSTLY CLEAR. COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WINDS MAY STAY UP OVERNIGHT BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION WILL
STAY NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE A NICE START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S SATURDAY NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S/LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG/OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND SLIDING OFFSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE...THIS
WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN
RETURNING TO THE AREA. ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
TUESDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. COLD/DRY
ADVECTION DEVELOPING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...MAINLY CLEAR BY
06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77



000
FXUS62 KCAE 211821
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
221 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AT 18Z. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PEE DEE REGION WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING. BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OF THE
PEE DEE INTO EASTERN NORTH CARLOLINA. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...A FEW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT BUT MOSTLY CLEAR. COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WINDS MAY STAY UP OVERNIGHT BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION WILL
STAY NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE A NICE START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S SATURDAY NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S/LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG/OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND SLIDING OFFSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE...THIS
WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN
RETURNING TO THE AREA. ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
TUESDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. COLD/DRY
ADVECTION DEVELOPING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...MAINLY CLEAR BY
06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 211821
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
221 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AT 18Z. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PEE DEE REGION WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING. BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OF THE
PEE DEE INTO EASTERN NORTH CARLOLINA. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...A FEW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT BUT MOSTLY CLEAR. COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WINDS MAY STAY UP OVERNIGHT BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION WILL
STAY NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE A NICE START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S SATURDAY NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S/LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG/OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND SLIDING OFFSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE...THIS
WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN
RETURNING TO THE AREA. ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
TUESDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. COLD/DRY
ADVECTION DEVELOPING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...MAINLY CLEAR BY
06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77



000
FXUS62 KCAE 211821
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
221 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AT 18Z. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PEE DEE REGION WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING. BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OF THE
PEE DEE INTO EASTERN NORTH CARLOLINA. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...A FEW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT BUT MOSTLY CLEAR. COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WINDS MAY STAY UP OVERNIGHT BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION WILL
STAY NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE A NICE START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S SATURDAY NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S/LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG/OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND SLIDING OFFSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE...THIS
WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE TO BEGIN
RETURNING TO THE AREA. ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
TUESDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. COLD/DRY
ADVECTION DEVELOPING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...MAINLY CLEAR BY
06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 211752
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
152 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AT 17Z. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PEE DEE REGION WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING. BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OF
THE PEE DEE INTO EASTERN NORTH CARLOLINA. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...A FEW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT MOSTLY CLEAR. COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS MAY STAY UP OVERNIGHT BUT WITH COLD
ADVECTION WILL STAY NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF
MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA. HAVE DECREASED POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY AS CURRENT MODEL TENDENCY HAS BEEN
OVERDONE IN REGARD TO POPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. COLD/DRY
ADVECTION DEVELOPING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...MAINLY CLEAR BY
06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 211752
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
152 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AT 17Z. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PEE DEE REGION WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING. BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OF
THE PEE DEE INTO EASTERN NORTH CARLOLINA. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...A FEW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT MOSTLY CLEAR. COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS MAY STAY UP OVERNIGHT BUT WITH COLD
ADVECTION WILL STAY NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF
MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA. HAVE DECREASED POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY AS CURRENT MODEL TENDENCY HAS BEEN
OVERDONE IN REGARD TO POPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. COLD/DRY
ADVECTION DEVELOPING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...MAINLY CLEAR BY
06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 211752
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
152 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AT 17Z. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PEE DEE REGION WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING. BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OF
THE PEE DEE INTO EASTERN NORTH CARLOLINA. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...A FEW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT MOSTLY CLEAR. COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS MAY STAY UP OVERNIGHT BUT WITH COLD
ADVECTION WILL STAY NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF
MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA. HAVE DECREASED POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY AS CURRENT MODEL TENDENCY HAS BEEN
OVERDONE IN REGARD TO POPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. COLD/DRY
ADVECTION DEVELOPING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...MAINLY CLEAR BY
06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 211752
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
152 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AT 17Z. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PEE DEE REGION WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING. BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OF
THE PEE DEE INTO EASTERN NORTH CARLOLINA. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...A FEW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT MOSTLY CLEAR. COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS MAY STAY UP OVERNIGHT BUT WITH COLD
ADVECTION WILL STAY NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF
MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA. HAVE DECREASED POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY AS CURRENT MODEL TENDENCY HAS BEEN
OVERDONE IN REGARD TO POPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. COLD/DRY
ADVECTION DEVELOPING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...MAINLY CLEAR BY
06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 211752
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
152 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AT 17Z. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PEE DEE REGION WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING. BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OF
THE PEE DEE INTO EASTERN NORTH CARLOLINA. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...A FEW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT MOSTLY CLEAR. COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS MAY STAY UP OVERNIGHT BUT WITH COLD
ADVECTION WILL STAY NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF
MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA. HAVE DECREASED POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY AS CURRENT MODEL TENDENCY HAS BEEN
OVERDONE IN REGARD TO POPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. COLD/DRY
ADVECTION DEVELOPING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...MAINLY CLEAR BY
06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 211752
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
152 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AT 17Z. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PEE DEE REGION WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING. BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OF
THE PEE DEE INTO EASTERN NORTH CARLOLINA. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...A FEW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT MOSTLY CLEAR. COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS MAY STAY UP OVERNIGHT BUT WITH COLD
ADVECTION WILL STAY NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF
MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA. HAVE DECREASED POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY AS CURRENT MODEL TENDENCY HAS BEEN
OVERDONE IN REGARD TO POPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. COLD/DRY
ADVECTION DEVELOPING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...MAINLY CLEAR BY
06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCHS 211751
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
151 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DIURNAL CUMULUS BEING LIMITED TO
COLLETON COUNTY AND THE TRI-COUNTY REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE FURTHER SOUTH. STILL A VERY MINUTE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING...BUT THE OVERALL LIKELIHOOD IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST. INSTEAD...CONVECTION IS FIRING CLOSER TO
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL REACH CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES WELL
INLAND AND THE MID 60S ALONG THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...AT DAYBREAK THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. A PRONOUNCED CAP NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PWATS UNDER AN
INCH WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND MORE
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
W TO SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BACK TO PURE SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY ALONG A PINNED
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IN COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE MENTIONED SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MEAN LOW LEVEL MIXING/JETTING
ENVIRONMENT AND GUIDANCE WAS NOW PAINTING 20 KT JETTING FLOW AT
GRAYS REEF AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF A LATE NIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. WE TRENDED A BIT HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 2 TO
3 FT RANGE...INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FT BEYOND 10-15 NM OFF THE COAST
LATE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WATERS WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE IN THE MORNING AS THE HIGH PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER
AWAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST. A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS...HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...ECT




000
FXUS62 KCHS 211751
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
151 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DIURNAL CUMULUS BEING LIMITED TO
COLLETON COUNTY AND THE TRI-COUNTY REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE FURTHER SOUTH. STILL A VERY MINUTE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING...BUT THE OVERALL LIKELIHOOD IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST. INSTEAD...CONVECTION IS FIRING CLOSER TO
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL REACH CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES WELL
INLAND AND THE MID 60S ALONG THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...AT DAYBREAK THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. A PRONOUNCED CAP NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PWATS UNDER AN
INCH WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND MORE
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
W TO SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BACK TO PURE SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY ALONG A PINNED
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IN COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE MENTIONED SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MEAN LOW LEVEL MIXING/JETTING
ENVIRONMENT AND GUIDANCE WAS NOW PAINTING 20 KT JETTING FLOW AT
GRAYS REEF AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF A LATE NIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. WE TRENDED A BIT HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 2 TO
3 FT RANGE...INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FT BEYOND 10-15 NM OFF THE COAST
LATE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WATERS WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE IN THE MORNING AS THE HIGH PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER
AWAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST. A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS...HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...ECT



000
FXUS62 KCHS 211751
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
151 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DIURNAL CUMULUS BEING LIMITED TO
COLLETON COUNTY AND THE TRI-COUNTY REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE FURTHER SOUTH. STILL A VERY MINUTE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING...BUT THE OVERALL LIKELIHOOD IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST. INSTEAD...CONVECTION IS FIRING CLOSER TO
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL REACH CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES WELL
INLAND AND THE MID 60S ALONG THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...AT DAYBREAK THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. A PRONOUNCED CAP NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PWATS UNDER AN
INCH WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND MORE
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
W TO SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BACK TO PURE SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY ALONG A PINNED
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IN COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE MENTIONED SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MEAN LOW LEVEL MIXING/JETTING
ENVIRONMENT AND GUIDANCE WAS NOW PAINTING 20 KT JETTING FLOW AT
GRAYS REEF AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF A LATE NIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. WE TRENDED A BIT HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 2 TO
3 FT RANGE...INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FT BEYOND 10-15 NM OFF THE COAST
LATE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WATERS WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE IN THE MORNING AS THE HIGH PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER
AWAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST. A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS...HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...ECT




000
FXUS62 KCHS 211426
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1026 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST OR
FORECAST REASONING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH IN THE FAST WEST FLOW WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS NOW PUSHING INTO THE SOUTH
CAROLINA UPSTATE AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE OBS SHOW
THE CENTER OF A SURFACE LOW SITTING UP AROUND THE SPARTANBURG AREA
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD TODAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FOCUSING
OF FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE SANTEE
RIVER...BASICALLY FROM AROUND NOW THROUGH ABOUT 1 PM.
THEREAFTER...SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING RAPIDLY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 800 MB. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY MODEL DATA OUTPUT. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WARM
TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY AND KEEP THE SEA
BREEZE PINNED ALONG THE COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
HIGHS AROUND 95/96 THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...HIGHS HAVE BEEN
WARMED A DEGREE OR TWO AND SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S EVERYWHERE.
RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE 98/99 DEGREE RANGE SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR
WE WILL THREATEN THOSE VALUES.

OVERNIGHT...THE DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL REACH CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES WELL
INLAND AND THE MID 60S ALONG THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...AT DAYBREAK THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. A PRONOUNCED CAP NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PWATS UNDER AN
INCH WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS
UPWARDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING
DEVELOPS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
W TO SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BACK TO PURE SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY ALONG A PINNED
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IN COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE MENTIONED SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MEAN LOW LEVEL MIXING/JETTING
ENVIRONMENT AND GUIDANCE WAS NOW PAINTING 20 KT JETTING FLOW AT
GRAYS REEF AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF A LATE NIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. WE TRENDED A BIT HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 2 TO
3 FT RANGE...INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FT BEYOND 10-15 NM OFF THE COAST
LATE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WATERS WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE IN THE MORNING AS THE HIGH PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER
AWAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST. A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS...HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...ECT



000
FXUS62 KCHS 211426
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1026 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST OR
FORECAST REASONING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH IN THE FAST WEST FLOW WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS NOW PUSHING INTO THE SOUTH
CAROLINA UPSTATE AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE OBS SHOW
THE CENTER OF A SURFACE LOW SITTING UP AROUND THE SPARTANBURG AREA
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD TODAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FOCUSING
OF FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE SANTEE
RIVER...BASICALLY FROM AROUND NOW THROUGH ABOUT 1 PM.
THEREAFTER...SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING RAPIDLY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 800 MB. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY MODEL DATA OUTPUT. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WARM
TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY AND KEEP THE SEA
BREEZE PINNED ALONG THE COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
HIGHS AROUND 95/96 THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...HIGHS HAVE BEEN
WARMED A DEGREE OR TWO AND SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S EVERYWHERE.
RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE 98/99 DEGREE RANGE SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR
WE WILL THREATEN THOSE VALUES.

OVERNIGHT...THE DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL REACH CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES WELL
INLAND AND THE MID 60S ALONG THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...AT DAYBREAK THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. A PRONOUNCED CAP NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PWATS UNDER AN
INCH WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS
UPWARDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING
DEVELOPS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
W TO SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BACK TO PURE SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY ALONG A PINNED
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IN COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE MENTIONED SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MEAN LOW LEVEL MIXING/JETTING
ENVIRONMENT AND GUIDANCE WAS NOW PAINTING 20 KT JETTING FLOW AT
GRAYS REEF AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF A LATE NIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. WE TRENDED A BIT HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 2 TO
3 FT RANGE...INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FT BEYOND 10-15 NM OFF THE COAST
LATE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WATERS WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE IN THE MORNING AS THE HIGH PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER
AWAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST. A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS...HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...ECT




000
FXUS62 KCHS 211426
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1026 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST OR
FORECAST REASONING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH IN THE FAST WEST FLOW WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS NOW PUSHING INTO THE SOUTH
CAROLINA UPSTATE AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE OBS SHOW
THE CENTER OF A SURFACE LOW SITTING UP AROUND THE SPARTANBURG AREA
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD TODAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FOCUSING
OF FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE SANTEE
RIVER...BASICALLY FROM AROUND NOW THROUGH ABOUT 1 PM.
THEREAFTER...SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING RAPIDLY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 800 MB. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY MODEL DATA OUTPUT. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WARM
TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY AND KEEP THE SEA
BREEZE PINNED ALONG THE COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
HIGHS AROUND 95/96 THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...HIGHS HAVE BEEN
WARMED A DEGREE OR TWO AND SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S EVERYWHERE.
RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE 98/99 DEGREE RANGE SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR
WE WILL THREATEN THOSE VALUES.

OVERNIGHT...THE DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL REACH CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES WELL
INLAND AND THE MID 60S ALONG THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...AT DAYBREAK THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. A PRONOUNCED CAP NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PWATS UNDER AN
INCH WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS
UPWARDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING
DEVELOPS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
W TO SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BACK TO PURE SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY ALONG A PINNED
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IN COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE MENTIONED SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MEAN LOW LEVEL MIXING/JETTING
ENVIRONMENT AND GUIDANCE WAS NOW PAINTING 20 KT JETTING FLOW AT
GRAYS REEF AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF A LATE NIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. WE TRENDED A BIT HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 2 TO
3 FT RANGE...INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FT BEYOND 10-15 NM OFF THE COAST
LATE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WATERS WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE IN THE MORNING AS THE HIGH PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER
AWAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST. A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS...HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...ECT




000
FXUS62 KCHS 211426
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1026 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST OR
FORECAST REASONING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH IN THE FAST WEST FLOW WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS NOW PUSHING INTO THE SOUTH
CAROLINA UPSTATE AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE OBS SHOW
THE CENTER OF A SURFACE LOW SITTING UP AROUND THE SPARTANBURG AREA
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD TODAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FOCUSING
OF FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE SANTEE
RIVER...BASICALLY FROM AROUND NOW THROUGH ABOUT 1 PM.
THEREAFTER...SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING RAPIDLY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 800 MB. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY MODEL DATA OUTPUT. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WARM
TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY AND KEEP THE SEA
BREEZE PINNED ALONG THE COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
HIGHS AROUND 95/96 THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...HIGHS HAVE BEEN
WARMED A DEGREE OR TWO AND SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S EVERYWHERE.
RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE 98/99 DEGREE RANGE SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR
WE WILL THREATEN THOSE VALUES.

OVERNIGHT...THE DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL REACH CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES WELL
INLAND AND THE MID 60S ALONG THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...AT DAYBREAK THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. A PRONOUNCED CAP NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PWATS UNDER AN
INCH WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS
UPWARDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING
DEVELOPS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
W TO SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BACK TO PURE SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY ALONG A PINNED
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IN COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE MENTIONED SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MEAN LOW LEVEL MIXING/JETTING
ENVIRONMENT AND GUIDANCE WAS NOW PAINTING 20 KT JETTING FLOW AT
GRAYS REEF AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF A LATE NIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. WE TRENDED A BIT HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 2 TO
3 FT RANGE...INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FT BEYOND 10-15 NM OFF THE COAST
LATE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WATERS WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE IN THE MORNING AS THE HIGH PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER
AWAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST. A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS...HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...ECT




000
FXUS62 KCHS 211426
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1026 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST OR
FORECAST REASONING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH IN THE FAST WEST FLOW WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS NOW PUSHING INTO THE SOUTH
CAROLINA UPSTATE AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE OBS SHOW
THE CENTER OF A SURFACE LOW SITTING UP AROUND THE SPARTANBURG AREA
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD TODAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FOCUSING
OF FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE SANTEE
RIVER...BASICALLY FROM AROUND NOW THROUGH ABOUT 1 PM.
THEREAFTER...SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING RAPIDLY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 800 MB. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY MODEL DATA OUTPUT. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WARM
TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY AND KEEP THE SEA
BREEZE PINNED ALONG THE COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
HIGHS AROUND 95/96 THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...HIGHS HAVE BEEN
WARMED A DEGREE OR TWO AND SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S EVERYWHERE.
RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE 98/99 DEGREE RANGE SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR
WE WILL THREATEN THOSE VALUES.

OVERNIGHT...THE DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL REACH CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES WELL
INLAND AND THE MID 60S ALONG THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...AT DAYBREAK THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. A PRONOUNCED CAP NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PWATS UNDER AN
INCH WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS
UPWARDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING
DEVELOPS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
W TO SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BACK TO PURE SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY ALONG A PINNED
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IN COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE MENTIONED SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MEAN LOW LEVEL MIXING/JETTING
ENVIRONMENT AND GUIDANCE WAS NOW PAINTING 20 KT JETTING FLOW AT
GRAYS REEF AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF A LATE NIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. WE TRENDED A BIT HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 2 TO
3 FT RANGE...INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FT BEYOND 10-15 NM OFF THE COAST
LATE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WATERS WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE IN THE MORNING AS THE HIGH PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER
AWAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST. A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS...HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...ECT




000
FXUS62 KCHS 211426
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1026 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST OR
FORECAST REASONING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH IN THE FAST WEST FLOW WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS NOW PUSHING INTO THE SOUTH
CAROLINA UPSTATE AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE OBS SHOW
THE CENTER OF A SURFACE LOW SITTING UP AROUND THE SPARTANBURG AREA
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD TODAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FOCUSING
OF FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE SANTEE
RIVER...BASICALLY FROM AROUND NOW THROUGH ABOUT 1 PM.
THEREAFTER...SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING RAPIDLY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 800 MB. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY MODEL DATA OUTPUT. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WARM
TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY AND KEEP THE SEA
BREEZE PINNED ALONG THE COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
HIGHS AROUND 95/96 THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...HIGHS HAVE BEEN
WARMED A DEGREE OR TWO AND SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S EVERYWHERE.
RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE 98/99 DEGREE RANGE SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR
WE WILL THREATEN THOSE VALUES.

OVERNIGHT...THE DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL REACH CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES WELL
INLAND AND THE MID 60S ALONG THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...AT DAYBREAK THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. A PRONOUNCED CAP NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PWATS UNDER AN
INCH WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS
UPWARDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING
DEVELOPS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
W TO SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BACK TO PURE SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY ALONG A PINNED
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IN COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE MENTIONED SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MEAN LOW LEVEL MIXING/JETTING
ENVIRONMENT AND GUIDANCE WAS NOW PAINTING 20 KT JETTING FLOW AT
GRAYS REEF AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF A LATE NIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. WE TRENDED A BIT HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 2 TO
3 FT RANGE...INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FT BEYOND 10-15 NM OFF THE COAST
LATE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WATERS WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE IN THE MORNING AS THE HIGH PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER
AWAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST. A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS...HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...ECT




000
FXUS62 KFFC 211424
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1024 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ENHANCED GRADIENT WINDS HAVE STARTED EARLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE RAISED MAGNITUDES BASED ON OBSERVED
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NEAR 20 KTS AND SUPPORTIVE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE OF SFC MAGS 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THIS ALSO HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE
OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN GA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY.

HI-RES MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS DRY...EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TODAY. PWATS WILL REMAIN AOB 1 INCH TODAY...WITH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE
HAVING BEEN SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE PROGGING A
SEABREEZE ALONG THE GULF COAST...BUT THE FEATURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TODAY
AND TOMORROW.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY
AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES
IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER
RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEEKS END.  GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.
ENHANCED GRADIENT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK TO RESULT IN NORTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DRY FUELS HAS WARRANTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. RH VALUES SHOULD STAY
OUTSIDE CRITICAL LEVELS GENERALLY 35 TO 45 PERCENT TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD WEAKEN FOR FRIDAY AND RH VALUES LOOK TO BE 30 TO 35 PERCENT
THEREFORE NO FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEN.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO SCT VFR CU BY MID MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY. NW WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO AROUND 20KT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  55  79  57 /  10   5   0   5
ATLANTA         79  56  79  60 /  10   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     72  47  74  50 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    76  51  77  52 /  10   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        85  59  83  61 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     79  55  77  58 /  10   0   0   0
MACON           87  57  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            76  52  77  52 /  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  81  53  79  55 /  10   0   0   0
VIDALIA         91  63  84  61 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA/BAKER
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA




000
FXUS62 KFFC 211424
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1024 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ENHANCED GRADIENT WINDS HAVE STARTED EARLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE RAISED MAGNITUDES BASED ON OBSERVED
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NEAR 20 KTS AND SUPPORTIVE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE OF SFC MAGS 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THIS ALSO HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE
OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN GA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY.

HI-RES MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS DRY...EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TODAY. PWATS WILL REMAIN AOB 1 INCH TODAY...WITH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE
HAVING BEEN SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE PROGGING A
SEABREEZE ALONG THE GULF COAST...BUT THE FEATURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TODAY
AND TOMORROW.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY
AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES
IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER
RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEEKS END.  GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.
ENHANCED GRADIENT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK TO RESULT IN NORTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DRY FUELS HAS WARRANTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. RH VALUES SHOULD STAY
OUTSIDE CRITICAL LEVELS GENERALLY 35 TO 45 PERCENT TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD WEAKEN FOR FRIDAY AND RH VALUES LOOK TO BE 30 TO 35 PERCENT
THEREFORE NO FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEN.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO SCT VFR CU BY MID MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY. NW WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO AROUND 20KT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  55  79  57 /  10   5   0   5
ATLANTA         79  56  79  60 /  10   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     72  47  74  50 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    76  51  77  52 /  10   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        85  59  83  61 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     79  55  77  58 /  10   0   0   0
MACON           87  57  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            76  52  77  52 /  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  81  53  79  55 /  10   0   0   0
VIDALIA         91  63  84  61 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA/BAKER
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA




000
FXUS62 KFFC 211424
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1024 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ENHANCED GRADIENT WINDS HAVE STARTED EARLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE RAISED MAGNITUDES BASED ON OBSERVED
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NEAR 20 KTS AND SUPPORTIVE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE OF SFC MAGS 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THIS ALSO HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE
OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN GA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY.

HI-RES MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS DRY...EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TODAY. PWATS WILL REMAIN AOB 1 INCH TODAY...WITH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE
HAVING BEEN SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE PROGGING A
SEABREEZE ALONG THE GULF COAST...BUT THE FEATURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TODAY
AND TOMORROW.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY
AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES
IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER
RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEEKS END.  GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.
ENHANCED GRADIENT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK TO RESULT IN NORTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DRY FUELS HAS WARRANTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. RH VALUES SHOULD STAY
OUTSIDE CRITICAL LEVELS GENERALLY 35 TO 45 PERCENT TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD WEAKEN FOR FRIDAY AND RH VALUES LOOK TO BE 30 TO 35 PERCENT
THEREFORE NO FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEN.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO SCT VFR CU BY MID MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY. NW WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO AROUND 20KT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  55  79  57 /  10   5   0   5
ATLANTA         79  56  79  60 /  10   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     72  47  74  50 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    76  51  77  52 /  10   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        85  59  83  61 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     79  55  77  58 /  10   0   0   0
MACON           87  57  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            76  52  77  52 /  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  81  53  79  55 /  10   0   0   0
VIDALIA         91  63  84  61 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA/BAKER
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA



000
FXUS62 KCAE 211346
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
946 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS
MORNING AND OFFSHORE OF NC THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL MOVE EAST AND
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING. ANY RAINFALL EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE SC/NC BORDER. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. AS
THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET RESULTING IN PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL BE TRYING TO OVERTAKE THE REGION THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP WINDS BETWEEN 8 AND 10 MPH RESULTING IN GOOD...BUT NOT
OPTIMAL...RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF
MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA. HAVE DECREASED POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY AS CURRENT MODEL TENDENCY HAS BEEN
OVERDONE IN REGARD TO POPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER
THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING QUICKLY WITHIN THE 500MB WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...FROM 06Z-15Z OR SO. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
DURING THE 16Z-00Z TIME FRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING SHIFTING WINDS MORE TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 211346
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
946 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS
MORNING AND OFFSHORE OF NC THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL MOVE EAST AND
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING. ANY RAINFALL EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE SC/NC BORDER. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. AS
THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET RESULTING IN PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL BE TRYING TO OVERTAKE THE REGION THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP WINDS BETWEEN 8 AND 10 MPH RESULTING IN GOOD...BUT NOT
OPTIMAL...RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF
MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA. HAVE DECREASED POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY AS CURRENT MODEL TENDENCY HAS BEEN
OVERDONE IN REGARD TO POPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER
THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING QUICKLY WITHIN THE 500MB WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...FROM 06Z-15Z OR SO. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
DURING THE 16Z-00Z TIME FRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING SHIFTING WINDS MORE TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 211346
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
946 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS
MORNING AND OFFSHORE OF NC THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL MOVE EAST AND
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING. ANY RAINFALL EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE SC/NC BORDER. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. AS
THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET RESULTING IN PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL BE TRYING TO OVERTAKE THE REGION THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP WINDS BETWEEN 8 AND 10 MPH RESULTING IN GOOD...BUT NOT
OPTIMAL...RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF
MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA. HAVE DECREASED POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY AS CURRENT MODEL TENDENCY HAS BEEN
OVERDONE IN REGARD TO POPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER
THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING QUICKLY WITHIN THE 500MB WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...FROM 06Z-15Z OR SO. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
DURING THE 16Z-00Z TIME FRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING SHIFTING WINDS MORE TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 211346
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
946 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS
MORNING AND OFFSHORE OF NC THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL MOVE EAST AND
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING. ANY RAINFALL EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE SC/NC BORDER. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. AS
THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET RESULTING IN PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL BE TRYING TO OVERTAKE THE REGION THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP WINDS BETWEEN 8 AND 10 MPH RESULTING IN GOOD...BUT NOT
OPTIMAL...RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF
MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA. HAVE DECREASED POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY AS CURRENT MODEL TENDENCY HAS BEEN
OVERDONE IN REGARD TO POPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER
THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING QUICKLY WITHIN THE 500MB WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...FROM 06Z-15Z OR SO. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
DURING THE 16Z-00Z TIME FRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING SHIFTING WINDS MORE TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 211138
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
738 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO EXIT
INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN
BEGINNING LATE MORNING WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING AND
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. IT APPEARS IF THERE IS GOING TO BE ANY SPOTTY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IT WILL BE BEFORE THESE FEATURES TAKE HOLD...
MAINLY PRIOR TO 15Z. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES AS THE MIXED
LAYER DEEPENS. PWATS WILL BE FALLING BELOW 1.2 INCHES AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS WILL BE FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER 50S BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PIN THE SEA BREEZE TO THE COAST AND THIS
SPELLS SOARING TEMPS INTO THE 90S ONCE AGAIN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CUMULUS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. WE BUMPED TEMPS UP MORE SOLIDLY TO THE MID
90S ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. RECORDS AT KCHS/KCHL/KSAV CLOSER TO
100 DEGREES...SO RECORD HIGH TEMPS TODAY UNLIKELY.

OVERNIGHT...THE DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL REACH CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES WELL
INLAND AND THE MID 60S ALONG THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...AT DAYBREAK THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. A PRONOUNCED CAP NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PWATS UNDER AN
INCH WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS
UPWARDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING
DEVELOPS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
W TO SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BACK TO PURE SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY ALONG A PINNED
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IN COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE MENTIONED SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MEAN LOW LEVEL MIXING/JETTING
ENVIRONMENT AND GUIDANCE WAS NOW PAINTING 20 KT JETTING FLOW AT
GRAYS REEF AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF A LATE NIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. WE TRENDED A BIT HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 2 TO
3 FT RANGE...INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FT BEYOND 10-15 NM OFF THE COAST
LATE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WATERS WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE IN THE MORNING AS THE HIGH PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER
AWAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST. A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS...HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...ECT




000
FXUS62 KCAE 211134
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
734 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS
MORNING AND OFFSHORE OF NC THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE UPSTATE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS MORNING AND OFF THE NC COAST THIS
EVENING. CURRENT WSR-88D RETURNS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS BEING
GENERATED BY THE LOW IN THE UPSTATE ALONG WITH LANCASTER AND
CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL
CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
BE TRYING TO OVERTAKE THE REGION THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS BETWEEN 8 AND 10 MPH RESULTING IN GOOD...BUT NOT
OPTIMAL...RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF
MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA. HAVE DECREASED POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY AS CURRENT MODEL TENDENCY HAS BEEN
OVERDONE IN REGARD TO POPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER
THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING QUICKLY WITHIN THE 500MB WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...FROM 06Z-15Z OR SO. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
DURING THE 16Z-00Z TIME FRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING SHIFTING WINDS MORE TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 211134
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
734 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS
MORNING AND OFFSHORE OF NC THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE UPSTATE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS MORNING AND OFF THE NC COAST THIS
EVENING. CURRENT WSR-88D RETURNS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS BEING
GENERATED BY THE LOW IN THE UPSTATE ALONG WITH LANCASTER AND
CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL
CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
BE TRYING TO OVERTAKE THE REGION THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS BETWEEN 8 AND 10 MPH RESULTING IN GOOD...BUT NOT
OPTIMAL...RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF
MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA. HAVE DECREASED POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY AS CURRENT MODEL TENDENCY HAS BEEN
OVERDONE IN REGARD TO POPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER
THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING QUICKLY WITHIN THE 500MB WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...FROM 06Z-15Z OR SO. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
DURING THE 16Z-00Z TIME FRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING SHIFTING WINDS MORE TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 211134
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
734 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS
MORNING AND OFFSHORE OF NC THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE UPSTATE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS MORNING AND OFF THE NC COAST THIS
EVENING. CURRENT WSR-88D RETURNS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS BEING
GENERATED BY THE LOW IN THE UPSTATE ALONG WITH LANCASTER AND
CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL
CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
BE TRYING TO OVERTAKE THE REGION THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS BETWEEN 8 AND 10 MPH RESULTING IN GOOD...BUT NOT
OPTIMAL...RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF
MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA. HAVE DECREASED POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY AS CURRENT MODEL TENDENCY HAS BEEN
OVERDONE IN REGARD TO POPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER
THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING QUICKLY WITHIN THE 500MB WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...FROM 06Z-15Z OR SO. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
DURING THE 16Z-00Z TIME FRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING SHIFTING WINDS MORE TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KFFC 211123
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
723 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN GA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY.

HI-RES MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS DRY...EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TODAY. PWATS WILL REMAIN AOB 1 INCH TODAY...WITH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE
HAVING BEEN SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE PROGGING A
SEABREEZE ALONG THE GULF COAST...BUT THE FEATURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TODAY
AND TOMORROW.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY
AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES
IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER
RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEEKS END.  GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO SCT VFR CU BY MID MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY. NW WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO AROUND 20KT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  55  79  57 /  10   5   0   5
ATLANTA         79  56  79  60 /  10   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     72  47  74  50 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    76  51  77  52 /  10   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        85  59  83  61 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     79  55  77  58 /  10   0   0   0
MACON           87  57  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            76  52  77  52 /  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  81  53  79  55 /  10   0   0   0
VIDALIA         91  63  84  61 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS62 KFFC 211123
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
723 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN GA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY.

HI-RES MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS DRY...EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TODAY. PWATS WILL REMAIN AOB 1 INCH TODAY...WITH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE
HAVING BEEN SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE PROGGING A
SEABREEZE ALONG THE GULF COAST...BUT THE FEATURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TODAY
AND TOMORROW.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY
AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES
IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER
RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEEKS END.  GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO SCT VFR CU BY MID MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY. NW WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO AROUND 20KT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  55  79  57 /  10   5   0   5
ATLANTA         79  56  79  60 /  10   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     72  47  74  50 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    76  51  77  52 /  10   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        85  59  83  61 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     79  55  77  58 /  10   0   0   0
MACON           87  57  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            76  52  77  52 /  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  81  53  79  55 /  10   0   0   0
VIDALIA         91  63  84  61 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS62 KFFC 211123
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
723 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN GA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY.

HI-RES MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS DRY...EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TODAY. PWATS WILL REMAIN AOB 1 INCH TODAY...WITH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE
HAVING BEEN SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE PROGGING A
SEABREEZE ALONG THE GULF COAST...BUT THE FEATURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TODAY
AND TOMORROW.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY
AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES
IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER
RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEEKS END.  GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO SCT VFR CU BY MID MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY. NW WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO AROUND 20KT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  55  79  57 /  10   5   0   5
ATLANTA         79  56  79  60 /  10   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     72  47  74  50 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    76  51  77  52 /  10   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        85  59  83  61 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     79  55  77  58 /  10   0   0   0
MACON           87  57  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            76  52  77  52 /  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  81  53  79  55 /  10   0   0   0
VIDALIA         91  63  84  61 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS62 KFFC 211123
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
723 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN GA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY.

HI-RES MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS DRY...EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TODAY. PWATS WILL REMAIN AOB 1 INCH TODAY...WITH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE
HAVING BEEN SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE PROGGING A
SEABREEZE ALONG THE GULF COAST...BUT THE FEATURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TODAY
AND TOMORROW.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY
AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES
IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER
RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEEKS END.  GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO SCT VFR CU BY MID MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY. NW WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO AROUND 20KT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  55  79  57 /  10   5   0   5
ATLANTA         79  56  79  60 /  10   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     72  47  74  50 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    76  51  77  52 /  10   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        85  59  83  61 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     79  55  77  58 /  10   0   0   0
MACON           87  57  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            76  52  77  52 /  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  81  53  79  55 /  10   0   0   0
VIDALIA         91  63  84  61 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS62 KFFC 211123
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
723 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN GA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY.

HI-RES MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS DRY...EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TODAY. PWATS WILL REMAIN AOB 1 INCH TODAY...WITH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE
HAVING BEEN SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE PROGGING A
SEABREEZE ALONG THE GULF COAST...BUT THE FEATURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TODAY
AND TOMORROW.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY
AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES
IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER
RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEEKS END.  GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO SCT VFR CU BY MID MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY. NW WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO AROUND 20KT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  55  79  57 /  10   5   0   5
ATLANTA         79  56  79  60 /  10   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     72  47  74  50 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    76  51  77  52 /  10   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        85  59  83  61 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     79  55  77  58 /  10   0   0   0
MACON           87  57  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            76  52  77  52 /  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  81  53  79  55 /  10   0   0   0
VIDALIA         91  63  84  61 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS62 KFFC 211123
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
723 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN GA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY.

HI-RES MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS DRY...EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TODAY. PWATS WILL REMAIN AOB 1 INCH TODAY...WITH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE
HAVING BEEN SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE PROGGING A
SEABREEZE ALONG THE GULF COAST...BUT THE FEATURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TODAY
AND TOMORROW.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY
AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES
IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER
RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEEKS END.  GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO SCT VFR CU BY MID MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY. NW WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO AROUND 20KT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  55  79  57 /  10   5   0   5
ATLANTA         79  56  79  60 /  10   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     72  47  74  50 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    76  51  77  52 /  10   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        85  59  83  61 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     79  55  77  58 /  10   0   0   0
MACON           87  57  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            76  52  77  52 /  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  81  53  79  55 /  10   0   0   0
VIDALIA         91  63  84  61 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 210816
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
416 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...SURFACE LOW PRES ANALYZED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE TO NEAR CHARLOTTE BY DAYBREAK. A
BAND OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER 850MB-500MB RH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY DAWN BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LIFT OR MID LEVEL OMEGA. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD CROP UP
ACROSS THE REGION BUT KEEPING POPS SILENT UNTIL RADAR TRENDS SHOW
SOMETHING DIFFERENT. MOST AREAS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH DAWN
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO EXIT
INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN
BEGINNING LATE MORNING WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING AND
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. IT APPEARS IF THERE IS GOING TO BE ANY SPOTTY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IT WILL BE BEFORE THESE FEATURES TAKE HOLD...
MAINLY PRIOR TO 15Z. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES AS THE MIXED
LAYER DEEPENS. PWATS WILL BE FALLING BELOW 1.2 INCHES AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS WILL BE FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER 50S BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PIN THE SEA BREEZE TO THE COAST AND THIS
SPELLS SOARING TEMPS INTO THE 90S ONCE AGAIN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CUMULUS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. WE BUMPED TEMPS UP MORE SOLIDLY TO THE MID
90S ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. RECORDS AT KCHS/KCHL/KSAV CLOSER TO
100 DEGREES...SO RECORD HIGH TEMPS TODAY UNLIKELY.

OVERNIGHT...THE DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL REACH CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES WELL
INLAND AND THE MID 60S ALONG THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...AT DAYBREAK THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. A PRONOUNCED CAP NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PWATS UNDER AN
INCH WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS
OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
W TO SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BACK TO PURE SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY ALONG A PINNED
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IN COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE MENTIONED SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MEAN LOW LEVEL MIXING/JETTING
ENVIRONMENT AND GUIDANCE WAS NOW PAINTING 20 KT JETTING FLOW AT
GRAYS REEF AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF A LATE NIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. WE TRENDED A BIT HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 2 TO
3 FT RANGE...INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FT BEYOND 10-15 NM OFF THE COAST
LATE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WATERS WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE IN THE MORNING AS THE HIGH PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER
AWAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST. A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS...HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...ECT



000
FXUS62 KCHS 210816
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
416 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...SURFACE LOW PRES ANALYZED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE TO NEAR CHARLOTTE BY DAYBREAK. A
BAND OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER 850MB-500MB RH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY DAWN BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LIFT OR MID LEVEL OMEGA. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD CROP UP
ACROSS THE REGION BUT KEEPING POPS SILENT UNTIL RADAR TRENDS SHOW
SOMETHING DIFFERENT. MOST AREAS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH DAWN
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO EXIT
INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN
BEGINNING LATE MORNING WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING AND
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. IT APPEARS IF THERE IS GOING TO BE ANY SPOTTY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IT WILL BE BEFORE THESE FEATURES TAKE HOLD...
MAINLY PRIOR TO 15Z. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES AS THE MIXED
LAYER DEEPENS. PWATS WILL BE FALLING BELOW 1.2 INCHES AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS WILL BE FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER 50S BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PIN THE SEA BREEZE TO THE COAST AND THIS
SPELLS SOARING TEMPS INTO THE 90S ONCE AGAIN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CUMULUS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. WE BUMPED TEMPS UP MORE SOLIDLY TO THE MID
90S ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. RECORDS AT KCHS/KCHL/KSAV CLOSER TO
100 DEGREES...SO RECORD HIGH TEMPS TODAY UNLIKELY.

OVERNIGHT...THE DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL REACH CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES WELL
INLAND AND THE MID 60S ALONG THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...AT DAYBREAK THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. A PRONOUNCED CAP NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PWATS UNDER AN
INCH WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS
OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
W TO SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BACK TO PURE SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY ALONG A PINNED
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IN COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE MENTIONED SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MEAN LOW LEVEL MIXING/JETTING
ENVIRONMENT AND GUIDANCE WAS NOW PAINTING 20 KT JETTING FLOW AT
GRAYS REEF AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF A LATE NIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. WE TRENDED A BIT HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 2 TO
3 FT RANGE...INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FT BEYOND 10-15 NM OFF THE COAST
LATE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WATERS WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE IN THE MORNING AS THE HIGH PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER
AWAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST. A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS...HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...ECT



000
FXUS62 KCAE 210801
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
401 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS
MORNING AND OFFSHORE OF NC THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE UPSTATE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS MORNING AND OFF THE NC COAST THIS
EVENING. CURRENT WSR-88D RETURNS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS BEING
GENERATED BY THE LOW IN THE UPSTATE ALONG WITH LANCASTER AND
CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL
CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
BE TRYING TO OVERTAKE THE REGION THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS BETWEEN 8 AND 10 MPH RESULTING IN GOOD...BUT NOT
OPTIMAL...RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING OFFSHORE OF DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESULTING IN A
DRY FORECAST. WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH GULF
MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA. HAVE DECREASED POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY AS CURRENT MODEL TENDENCY HAS BEEN
OVERDONE IN REGARD TO POPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER
THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING QUICKLY WITHIN THE 500MB WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...FROM 06Z-15Z OR SO. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT OGB WITH NEAR CALM WIND MAY
RESULT IN PATCHY MVFR FOG SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF FOG
THERE...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE WEST AROUND 10Z-12Z AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE
16Z-00Z TIME FRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING SHIFTING WINDS MORE TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KFFC 210738
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN GA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY.

HI-RES MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS DRY...EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TODAY. PWATS WILL REMAIN AOB 1 INCH TODAY...WITH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE
HAVING BEEN SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE PROGGING A
SEABREEZE ALONG THE GULF COAST...BUT THE FEATURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TODAY
AND TOMORROW.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY
AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES
IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER
RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEEKS END.  GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO ADD SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARDS DAWN. ANY
CIGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  55  79  57 /  10   5   0   5
ATLANTA         79  56  79  60 /  10   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     72  47  74  50 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    76  51  77  52 /  10   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        85  59  83  61 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     79  55  77  58 /  10   0   0   0
MACON           87  57  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            76  52  77  52 /  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  81  53  79  55 /  10   0   0   0
VIDALIA         91  63  84  61 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA




000
FXUS62 KFFC 210738
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN GA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY.

HI-RES MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS DRY...EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TODAY. PWATS WILL REMAIN AOB 1 INCH TODAY...WITH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE
HAVING BEEN SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE PROGGING A
SEABREEZE ALONG THE GULF COAST...BUT THE FEATURE LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE CWFA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TODAY
AND TOMORROW.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN US...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY
AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND RIPPLES
IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS ANCHORING THE UPPER
RIDGE JUST OFF THE GA COAST...WHICH MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST...HOWEVER WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEEKS END.  GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ATWELL


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO ADD SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARDS DAWN. ANY
CIGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  55  79  57 /  10   5   0   5
ATLANTA         79  56  79  60 /  10   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     72  47  74  50 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    76  51  77  52 /  10   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        85  59  83  61 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     79  55  77  58 /  10   0   0   0
MACON           87  57  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            76  52  77  52 /  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  81  53  79  55 /  10   0   0   0
VIDALIA         91  63  84  61 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA



000
FXUS62 KFFC 210540
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO NW AL IS SPARKING CONVECTION THERE...
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION STILL NOTED ACROSS EAST AND SE AL. THESE
STORMS MAY PUSH INTO THE COLUMBUS AREA BY 9 PM... BUT EXPECT SOME
WEAKENING... SO MAY BE MOSTLY SHOWERS. THE GREATER CONCERN IS THE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH WHERE HAS BETTER UPPER SHORT WAVE SUPPORT.
THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY STILL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO NW GA BETWEEN 9-10 PM... THEN SPREAD
ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH GA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND COULD PERSIST UNTIL
AROUND 2-3 AM THU MORNING. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED... WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
WIND GUSTS TO 35-40MPH OR SO. WILL UP POPS OVER THE NW ZONES AS GET
MORE CONFIDENT THE CONVECTION WILL HOLD TOGETHER... BUT OTHERWISE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK. 39

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015/
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE APPROACHES
THE CWA FROM THE WEST. CURRENTLY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
PUSHING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WITH A WEAK
TRANSLATED SFC LOW. WHILE SOME HI-RES SOLUTIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO
SUPPORT THIS HOLDING TOGETHER AND PUSHING INTO WEST GA...SOME
PREVIOUS RAP SOLUTIONS SUPPORTED IT AND WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED ESPECIALLY IF SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR OTHER MESOSCALE
FORCING COMES TO AID. THIS MAY RESULT IN UPPING POPS IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. STILL SOME MLCAPE NEAR 1000
J/KG AND DECENT DCAPE IN PLACE. IF ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT CAN
MUSTER...THERE COULD STILL BE STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS EVEN THOUGH IT
IS A SHEAR DEPRIVED ENVIRONMENT. KEEPING BEST CHANCE POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF I-20 CORRIDOR INTO THE EARLY MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE
INFLUENCE.

PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE GOOD DRYING OF THE COLUMN FOR
THURSDAY AND NOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A NOTABLE CAPPING INVERSION
ABOVE 850 MB. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS NOW TO ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER FOR THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
LOOKING TO STAY TOO DRY AND STABLE. WINDS LOOK TO BE KICKING IN WITH
THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AFTERNOON MIXING. WHILE
CURRENTLY LOOKING TO STAY A BIT BELOW CRITERIA...WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON TRENDS FOR ANY FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WITH ALREADY DRY FUELS
/THOUGH MAY BE ALTERED WITH AFOREMENTIONED PRECIP CHANCES/. TEMPS
THURSDAY LOOK TO HAVE A STRONG GRADIENT WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE NW TO THE LOW 90S SE.

BAKER

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015/
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LATEST LONG TERM MODELS HINT AT A MORE PROMINENT SURFACE
HIGH KEEPING MOISTURE TO THE WEST LARGELY AT BAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH ONLY PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN GEORGIA AT
RISK FOR AN ISOLATED STORM. HAVE SCALED POPS BACK SOMEWHAT AS A
RESULT.

31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015/
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS A BIT DRIER AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID WESTERN STATES BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYS THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE
CONTINUES TO ROTATE AND KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS IN THE FORECAST DAYS 3-5. BY
TUESDAY THE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND TRANSITION INTO MORE
OF A BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
LOOKING AT INSTABILITIES INCREASING A BIT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH PWS SO WILL INCREASE TO CHANCE POPS DAYS 6 AND 7.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO ADD SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARDS DAWN. ANY
CIGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  56  81  59 /  10   5   0   5
ATLANTA         80  58  80  63 /  10   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     74  48  74  54 /  30   5   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    79  53  79  56 /  10   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        88  61  84  65 /  10   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     80  55  78  59 /  10   0   0   5
MACON           89  59  85  63 /  10   0   0   5
ROME            77  52  79  55 /  10   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  83  54  81  60 /  10   0   0   5
VIDALIA         92  65  86  66 /  20   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 210540
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO NW AL IS SPARKING CONVECTION THERE...
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION STILL NOTED ACROSS EAST AND SE AL. THESE
STORMS MAY PUSH INTO THE COLUMBUS AREA BY 9 PM... BUT EXPECT SOME
WEAKENING... SO MAY BE MOSTLY SHOWERS. THE GREATER CONCERN IS THE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH WHERE HAS BETTER UPPER SHORT WAVE SUPPORT.
THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY STILL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO NW GA BETWEEN 9-10 PM... THEN SPREAD
ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH GA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND COULD PERSIST UNTIL
AROUND 2-3 AM THU MORNING. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED... WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
WIND GUSTS TO 35-40MPH OR SO. WILL UP POPS OVER THE NW ZONES AS GET
MORE CONFIDENT THE CONVECTION WILL HOLD TOGETHER... BUT OTHERWISE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK. 39

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015/
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE APPROACHES
THE CWA FROM THE WEST. CURRENTLY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
PUSHING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WITH A WEAK
TRANSLATED SFC LOW. WHILE SOME HI-RES SOLUTIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO
SUPPORT THIS HOLDING TOGETHER AND PUSHING INTO WEST GA...SOME
PREVIOUS RAP SOLUTIONS SUPPORTED IT AND WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED ESPECIALLY IF SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR OTHER MESOSCALE
FORCING COMES TO AID. THIS MAY RESULT IN UPPING POPS IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. STILL SOME MLCAPE NEAR 1000
J/KG AND DECENT DCAPE IN PLACE. IF ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT CAN
MUSTER...THERE COULD STILL BE STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS EVEN THOUGH IT
IS A SHEAR DEPRIVED ENVIRONMENT. KEEPING BEST CHANCE POPS MAINLY
NORTH OF I-20 CORRIDOR INTO THE EARLY MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE
INFLUENCE.

PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE GOOD DRYING OF THE COLUMN FOR
THURSDAY AND NOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A NOTABLE CAPPING INVERSION
ABOVE 850 MB. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS NOW TO ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER FOR THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
LOOKING TO STAY TOO DRY AND STABLE. WINDS LOOK TO BE KICKING IN WITH
THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AFTERNOON MIXING. WHILE
CURRENTLY LOOKING TO STAY A BIT BELOW CRITERIA...WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON TRENDS FOR ANY FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WITH ALREADY DRY FUELS
/THOUGH MAY BE ALTERED WITH AFOREMENTIONED PRECIP CHANCES/. TEMPS
THURSDAY LOOK TO HAVE A STRONG GRADIENT WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE NW TO THE LOW 90S SE.

BAKER

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015/
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LATEST LONG TERM MODELS HINT AT A MORE PROMINENT SURFACE
HIGH KEEPING MOISTURE TO THE WEST LARGELY AT BAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH ONLY PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN GEORGIA AT
RISK FOR AN ISOLATED STORM. HAVE SCALED POPS BACK SOMEWHAT AS A
RESULT.

31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015/
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS A BIT DRIER AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID WESTERN STATES BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYS THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE
CONTINUES TO ROTATE AND KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS IN THE FORECAST DAYS 3-5. BY
TUESDAY THE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND TRANSITION INTO MORE
OF A BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
LOOKING AT INSTABILITIES INCREASING A BIT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH PWS SO WILL INCREASE TO CHANCE POPS DAYS 6 AND 7.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO ADD SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARDS DAWN. ANY
CIGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE NW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  56  81  59 /  10   5   0   5
ATLANTA         80  58  80  63 /  10   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     74  48  74  54 /  30   5   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    79  53  79  56 /  10   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        88  61  84  65 /  10   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     80  55  78  59 /  10   0   0   5
MACON           89  59  85  63 /  10   0   0   5
ROME            77  52  79  55 /  10   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  83  54  81  60 /  10   0   0   5
VIDALIA         92  65  86  66 /  20   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCHS 210529
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
129 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRES OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OVER COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IS SLOWLY SHIFTING ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SOMEWHAT FLATTENED
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
NORTH OF I-16 OVERNIGHT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SWAY SILENT POPS AS
MOST WILL REMAIN DRY. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EXCEPT
ALONG THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY THIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE CENTER OF THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA STATE LINE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOWING UP
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. IT APPEARS IF THERE IS GOING TO BE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IT WILL BE BEFORE THESE FEATURES TAKE
HOLD...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. MODELS ARE QUITE DRY...AND THE
CONSENSUS FAVORS A DRY FORECAST. HAVE HELD ONTO A SMALL AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...THEN DRY
EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR TO POPS WILL BE
THE PREVAILING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP RESULT
IN A RATHER WARM DAY WITH NICE MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW
90S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...THE
DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS WILL REACH
THE LOW 60S WELL INLAND...RANGING TOT HE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF NVA ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS UP THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROTATE NORTH OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SATURDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOLER...WITH A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN AREA SOUNDINGS. SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME HINTS OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST IS DRY AND HIGHS EACH DAY WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS
OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS INLAND AND NORTH OF THE WATERS. IN GENERAL...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WHILE SEAS ARE NO HIGHER
THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF INLAND LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN ON FRIDAY AND WILL SURGE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME...WITH SOME PERIODS OF STRONGER FLOW PERHAPS UP
TO 15-20 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH
THEY CAN/T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT EITHER. THIS GENERAL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH SITS TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE ASSOCIATED
WINDS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 4 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AT
TIMES...UP TO 5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 210529
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
129 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRES OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OVER COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IS SLOWLY SHIFTING ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SOMEWHAT FLATTENED
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
NORTH OF I-16 OVERNIGHT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SWAY SILENT POPS AS
MOST WILL REMAIN DRY. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EXCEPT
ALONG THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY THIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE CENTER OF THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA STATE LINE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOWING UP
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. IT APPEARS IF THERE IS GOING TO BE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IT WILL BE BEFORE THESE FEATURES TAKE
HOLD...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. MODELS ARE QUITE DRY...AND THE
CONSENSUS FAVORS A DRY FORECAST. HAVE HELD ONTO A SMALL AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...THEN DRY
EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR TO POPS WILL BE
THE PREVAILING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP RESULT
IN A RATHER WARM DAY WITH NICE MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW
90S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...THE
DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS WILL REACH
THE LOW 60S WELL INLAND...RANGING TOT HE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF NVA ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS UP THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROTATE NORTH OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SATURDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOLER...WITH A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN AREA SOUNDINGS. SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME HINTS OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST IS DRY AND HIGHS EACH DAY WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS
OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS INLAND AND NORTH OF THE WATERS. IN GENERAL...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WHILE SEAS ARE NO HIGHER
THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF INLAND LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN ON FRIDAY AND WILL SURGE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME...WITH SOME PERIODS OF STRONGER FLOW PERHAPS UP
TO 15-20 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH
THEY CAN/T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT EITHER. THIS GENERAL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH SITS TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE ASSOCIATED
WINDS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 4 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AT
TIMES...UP TO 5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 210529
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
129 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRES OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OVER COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IS SLOWLY SHIFTING ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SOMEWHAT FLATTENED
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
NORTH OF I-16 OVERNIGHT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SWAY SILENT POPS AS
MOST WILL REMAIN DRY. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EXCEPT
ALONG THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY THIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE CENTER OF THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA STATE LINE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOWING UP
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. IT APPEARS IF THERE IS GOING TO BE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IT WILL BE BEFORE THESE FEATURES TAKE
HOLD...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. MODELS ARE QUITE DRY...AND THE
CONSENSUS FAVORS A DRY FORECAST. HAVE HELD ONTO A SMALL AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...THEN DRY
EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR TO POPS WILL BE
THE PREVAILING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP RESULT
IN A RATHER WARM DAY WITH NICE MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW
90S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...THE
DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS WILL REACH
THE LOW 60S WELL INLAND...RANGING TOT HE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF NVA ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS UP THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROTATE NORTH OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SATURDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOLER...WITH A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN AREA SOUNDINGS. SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME HINTS OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST IS DRY AND HIGHS EACH DAY WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS
OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS INLAND AND NORTH OF THE WATERS. IN GENERAL...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WHILE SEAS ARE NO HIGHER
THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF INLAND LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN ON FRIDAY AND WILL SURGE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME...WITH SOME PERIODS OF STRONGER FLOW PERHAPS UP
TO 15-20 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH
THEY CAN/T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT EITHER. THIS GENERAL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH SITS TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE ASSOCIATED
WINDS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 4 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AT
TIMES...UP TO 5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 210520
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
120 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS. DRIER AIR EXPECTED THURSDAY BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
WHILE A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED STORMS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE MORE FAVORABLE. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. MODELS SHOW THE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRENGTHENING ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FA WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SURFACE WAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. TIMING WILL PLACE BEST
INSTABILITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA AND POINTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL FAVOR POPS ACROSS THAT
AREA...AND SPC HAS E CWA IN A MRGL RISK WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
EXTREME ERN NC. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...ENSURING
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE
TRENDING LOWER ON TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FRI. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST
IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL BY LOWERING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 1 TO 2
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST PART OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. FROM MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH MID WEEK THE GFS
IS THE MORE MOIST WITH THE ECMWF THE DRIEST WITH STRONGER
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NESTLE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...ENSURING FAIR
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE ACROSS THE CWA FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF RIDGING THAT HANGS
IN ACROSS THE AREA WILL DETERMINE EXTENT OF OF THE COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES WARMER AND
EXPECT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER
THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING QUICKLY WITHIN THE 500MB WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...FROM 06Z-15Z OR SO. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT OGB WITH NEAR CALM WIND MAY
RESULT IN PATCHY MVFR FOG SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF FOG
THERE...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE WEST AROUND 10Z-12Z AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE
16Z-00Z TIME FRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING SHIFTING WINDS MORE TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 210520
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
120 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS. DRIER AIR EXPECTED THURSDAY BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
WHILE A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED STORMS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE MORE FAVORABLE. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. MODELS SHOW THE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRENGTHENING ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FA WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SURFACE WAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. TIMING WILL PLACE BEST
INSTABILITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA AND POINTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL FAVOR POPS ACROSS THAT
AREA...AND SPC HAS E CWA IN A MRGL RISK WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
EXTREME ERN NC. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...ENSURING
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE
TRENDING LOWER ON TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FRI. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST
IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL BY LOWERING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 1 TO 2
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST PART OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. FROM MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH MID WEEK THE GFS
IS THE MORE MOIST WITH THE ECMWF THE DRIEST WITH STRONGER
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NESTLE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...ENSURING FAIR
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE ACROSS THE CWA FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF RIDGING THAT HANGS
IN ACROSS THE AREA WILL DETERMINE EXTENT OF OF THE COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES WARMER AND
EXPECT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER
THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING QUICKLY WITHIN THE 500MB WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...FROM 06Z-15Z OR SO. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT OGB WITH NEAR CALM WIND MAY
RESULT IN PATCHY MVFR FOG SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF FOG
THERE...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE WEST AROUND 10Z-12Z AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE
16Z-00Z TIME FRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING SHIFTING WINDS MORE TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 210520
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
120 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS. DRIER AIR EXPECTED THURSDAY BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
WHILE A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED STORMS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE MORE FAVORABLE. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. MODELS SHOW THE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRENGTHENING ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FA WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SURFACE WAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. TIMING WILL PLACE BEST
INSTABILITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA AND POINTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL FAVOR POPS ACROSS THAT
AREA...AND SPC HAS E CWA IN A MRGL RISK WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
EXTREME ERN NC. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...ENSURING
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE
TRENDING LOWER ON TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FRI. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST
IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL BY LOWERING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 1 TO 2
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST PART OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. FROM MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH MID WEEK THE GFS
IS THE MORE MOIST WITH THE ECMWF THE DRIEST WITH STRONGER
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NESTLE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...ENSURING FAIR
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE ACROSS THE CWA FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF RIDGING THAT HANGS
IN ACROSS THE AREA WILL DETERMINE EXTENT OF OF THE COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES WARMER AND
EXPECT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER
THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING QUICKLY WITHIN THE 500MB WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...FROM 06Z-15Z OR SO. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT OGB WITH NEAR CALM WIND MAY
RESULT IN PATCHY MVFR FOG SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF FOG
THERE...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE WEST AROUND 10Z-12Z AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE
16Z-00Z TIME FRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING SHIFTING WINDS MORE TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 210520
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
120 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS. DRIER AIR EXPECTED THURSDAY BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
WHILE A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED STORMS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE MORE FAVORABLE. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. MODELS SHOW THE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRENGTHENING ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FA WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SURFACE WAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. TIMING WILL PLACE BEST
INSTABILITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA AND POINTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL FAVOR POPS ACROSS THAT
AREA...AND SPC HAS E CWA IN A MRGL RISK WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
EXTREME ERN NC. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...ENSURING
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE
TRENDING LOWER ON TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FRI. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST
IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL BY LOWERING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 1 TO 2
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST PART OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. FROM MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH MID WEEK THE GFS
IS THE MORE MOIST WITH THE ECMWF THE DRIEST WITH STRONGER
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NESTLE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...ENSURING FAIR
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE ACROSS THE CWA FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF RIDGING THAT HANGS
IN ACROSS THE AREA WILL DETERMINE EXTENT OF OF THE COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES WARMER AND
EXPECT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER
THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING QUICKLY WITHIN THE 500MB WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...FROM 06Z-15Z OR SO. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED CLOUDS THIS
MORNING. LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT OGB WITH NEAR CALM WIND MAY
RESULT IN PATCHY MVFR FOG SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF FOG
THERE...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE WEST AROUND 10Z-12Z AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE
16Z-00Z TIME FRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING SHIFTING WINDS MORE TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 210248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1048 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS. DRIER AIR EXPECTED THURSDAY BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
WHILE A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED STORMS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE MORE FAVORABLE. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. MODELS SHOW THE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRENGTHENING ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FA WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SURFACE WAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. TIMING WILL PLACE BEST
INSTABILITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA AND POINTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL FAVOR POPS ACROSS THAT
AREA...AND SPC HAS E CWA IN A MRGL RISK WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
EXTREME ERN NC. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...ENSURING
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE
TRENDING LOWER ON TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FRI. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST
IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL BY LOWERING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 1 TO 2
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST PART OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. FROM MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH MID WEEK THE GFS
IS THE MORE MOIST WITH THE ECMWF THE DRIEST WITH STRONGER
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NESTLE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...ENSURING FAIR
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE ACROSS THE CWA FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF RIDGING THAT HANGS
IN ACROSS THE AREA WILL DETERMINE EXTENT OF OF THE COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES WARMER AND
EXPECT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

BROAD LOW PRESSURE TO CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST
ANOTHER THREAT OF SHOWERS AFTER 06Z-12Z ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED AND THREAT LIKELY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL WINDS TOWARDS MORNING SHOULD LIMIT FOG. WINDS INCREASING
FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND TROUGH AROUND LATE MORNING...GUSTING
TO NEAR 20 KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 210248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1048 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS. DRIER AIR EXPECTED THURSDAY BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
WHILE A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED STORMS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE MORE FAVORABLE. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. MODELS SHOW THE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRENGTHENING ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FA WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SURFACE WAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. TIMING WILL PLACE BEST
INSTABILITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA AND POINTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL FAVOR POPS ACROSS THAT
AREA...AND SPC HAS E CWA IN A MRGL RISK WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
EXTREME ERN NC. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...ENSURING
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE
TRENDING LOWER ON TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FRI. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST
IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL BY LOWERING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 1 TO 2
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST PART OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. FROM MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH MID WEEK THE GFS
IS THE MORE MOIST WITH THE ECMWF THE DRIEST WITH STRONGER
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NESTLE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...ENSURING FAIR
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE ACROSS THE CWA FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF RIDGING THAT HANGS
IN ACROSS THE AREA WILL DETERMINE EXTENT OF OF THE COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES WARMER AND
EXPECT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

BROAD LOW PRESSURE TO CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST
ANOTHER THREAT OF SHOWERS AFTER 06Z-12Z ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED AND THREAT LIKELY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL WINDS TOWARDS MORNING SHOULD LIMIT FOG. WINDS INCREASING
FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND TROUGH AROUND LATE MORNING...GUSTING
TO NEAR 20 KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 210248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1048 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS. DRIER AIR EXPECTED THURSDAY BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
WHILE A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED STORMS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE MORE FAVORABLE. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. MODELS SHOW THE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRENGTHENING ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FA WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SURFACE WAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. TIMING WILL PLACE BEST
INSTABILITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA AND POINTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL FAVOR POPS ACROSS THAT
AREA...AND SPC HAS E CWA IN A MRGL RISK WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
EXTREME ERN NC. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...ENSURING
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE
TRENDING LOWER ON TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FRI. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST
IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL BY LOWERING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 1 TO 2
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST PART OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. FROM MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH MID WEEK THE GFS
IS THE MORE MOIST WITH THE ECMWF THE DRIEST WITH STRONGER
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NESTLE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...ENSURING FAIR
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE ACROSS THE CWA FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF RIDGING THAT HANGS
IN ACROSS THE AREA WILL DETERMINE EXTENT OF OF THE COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES WARMER AND
EXPECT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

BROAD LOW PRESSURE TO CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST
ANOTHER THREAT OF SHOWERS AFTER 06Z-12Z ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED AND THREAT LIKELY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL WINDS TOWARDS MORNING SHOULD LIMIT FOG. WINDS INCREASING
FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND TROUGH AROUND LATE MORNING...GUSTING
TO NEAR 20 KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 210248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1048 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
A FEW SHOWERS. DRIER AIR EXPECTED THURSDAY BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY...WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
WHILE A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED STORMS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE MORE FAVORABLE. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. MODELS SHOW THE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRENGTHENING ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FA WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SURFACE WAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. TIMING WILL PLACE BEST
INSTABILITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA AND POINTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL FAVOR POPS ACROSS THAT
AREA...AND SPC HAS E CWA IN A MRGL RISK WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
EXTREME ERN NC. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...ENSURING
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE
TRENDING LOWER ON TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FRI. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST
IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL BY LOWERING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 1 TO 2
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST PART OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. FROM MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH MID WEEK THE GFS
IS THE MORE MOIST WITH THE ECMWF THE DRIEST WITH STRONGER
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NESTLE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...ENSURING FAIR
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE ACROSS THE CWA FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF RIDGING THAT HANGS
IN ACROSS THE AREA WILL DETERMINE EXTENT OF OF THE COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES WARMER AND
EXPECT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

BROAD LOW PRESSURE TO CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST
ANOTHER THREAT OF SHOWERS AFTER 06Z-12Z ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED AND THREAT LIKELY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL WINDS TOWARDS MORNING SHOULD LIMIT FOG. WINDS INCREASING
FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND TROUGH AROUND LATE MORNING...GUSTING
TO NEAR 20 KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




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