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000
FXUS62 KCAE 181757
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
157 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWING LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE CSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS
SHOW MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AT THE MOMENT BUT HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.
USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE DETAILS. TEMPERATURES NEAR
STEADY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
LOW...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS GFS SUGGEST POSSIBLE
DRY SLOT BY AFTERNOON. RAISED THE POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND USED AN AVERAGE MOS POP FOR SATURDAY. RAIN
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FLUX SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. CLOUDINESS AND NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL
AND SHOWS TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 NEAR THE CORE. BUT
LATEST TRENDS SUGGESTS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH GEORGIA.
THIS WILL REDUCE LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUNDERSTORMS
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. SO ALTHOUGH ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY CSRA WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW. MODEL AVERAGE QPF IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.
CURRENT THINKING 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND 1 TO 2
INCHES TO THE NORTHWEST. FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS.

CEILINGS MAINLY VFR AT THE MOMENT BUT LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST GEORGIA WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING.
MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BY AROUND
03Z WITH SUPPORT FROM LAMP AND HRRR. IFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN
AT TIMES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 181757
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
157 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWING LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE CSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS
SHOW MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AT THE MOMENT BUT HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.
USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE DETAILS. TEMPERATURES NEAR
STEADY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
LOW...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS GFS SUGGEST POSSIBLE
DRY SLOT BY AFTERNOON. RAISED THE POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND USED AN AVERAGE MOS POP FOR SATURDAY. RAIN
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FLUX SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. CLOUDINESS AND NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL
AND SHOWS TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 NEAR THE CORE. BUT
LATEST TRENDS SUGGESTS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH GEORGIA.
THIS WILL REDUCE LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUNDERSTORMS
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. SO ALTHOUGH ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY CSRA WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW. MODEL AVERAGE QPF IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.
CURRENT THINKING 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND 1 TO 2
INCHES TO THE NORTHWEST. FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS.

CEILINGS MAINLY VFR AT THE MOMENT BUT LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST GEORGIA WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING.
MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BY AROUND
03Z WITH SUPPORT FROM LAMP AND HRRR. IFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN
AT TIMES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 181757
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
157 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWING LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE CSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS
SHOW MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AT THE MOMENT BUT HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.
USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE DETAILS. TEMPERATURES NEAR
STEADY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
LOW...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS GFS SUGGEST POSSIBLE
DRY SLOT BY AFTERNOON. RAISED THE POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND USED AN AVERAGE MOS POP FOR SATURDAY. RAIN
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FLUX SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. CLOUDINESS AND NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL
AND SHOWS TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 NEAR THE CORE. BUT
LATEST TRENDS SUGGESTS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH GEORGIA.
THIS WILL REDUCE LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUNDERSTORMS
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. SO ALTHOUGH ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY CSRA WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW. MODEL AVERAGE QPF IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.
CURRENT THINKING 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND 1 TO 2
INCHES TO THE NORTHWEST. FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS.

CEILINGS MAINLY VFR AT THE MOMENT BUT LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST GEORGIA WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING.
MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BY AROUND
03Z WITH SUPPORT FROM LAMP AND HRRR. IFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN
AT TIMES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 181757
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
157 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWING LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE CSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS
SHOW MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AT THE MOMENT BUT HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.
USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE DETAILS. TEMPERATURES NEAR
STEADY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
LOW...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS GFS SUGGEST POSSIBLE
DRY SLOT BY AFTERNOON. RAISED THE POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND USED AN AVERAGE MOS POP FOR SATURDAY. RAIN
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FLUX SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. CLOUDINESS AND NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL
AND SHOWS TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 NEAR THE CORE. BUT
LATEST TRENDS SUGGESTS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH GEORGIA.
THIS WILL REDUCE LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUNDERSTORMS
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. SO ALTHOUGH ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY CSRA WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW. MODEL AVERAGE QPF IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.
CURRENT THINKING 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND 1 TO 2
INCHES TO THE NORTHWEST. FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS.

CEILINGS MAINLY VFR AT THE MOMENT BUT LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST GEORGIA WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING.
MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BY AROUND
03Z WITH SUPPORT FROM LAMP AND HRRR. IFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN
AT TIMES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCHS 181745
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
145 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY TO A POSITION
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST LATE SATURDAY THEN WILL ADVANCE OFFSHORE SUNDAY.
THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONGOING FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. WE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS TO INCREASE CHANCES LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS DEVELOPING QUICKLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH
PRECIP DEVELOPING AS A RESULT. WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE
WIDESPREAD RAIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OTHER PRODUCTS LOOK
GOOD AND WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY TIMING ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE LATE
MORNING UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE SYNOPTIC PLAYERS IN PLACE THIS MORNING INCLUDE THE SURFACE
WEDGE SOLIDLY ANCHORED IN AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP CONVECTION HAD ERUPTED OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO WITH IR SATELLITE TOPS COOLING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
COAST REGION AS DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS MINGLE
TO THE SW OF OUR REGION. CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF REGION WITH EXCELLENT MODEL CONSENSUS THAT MERGING MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CUT-OFF A MID LEVEL LOW OVER/NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING.

RAINS WILL INCREASE TODAY FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA THIS MORNING INTO
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MID AFTERNOON AND INTO THE CHARLESTON
AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE
IMPRESSIVE UPPER DIFFLUENCE...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP
OMEGA TAKING SHAPE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE PWATS RISE OVER
1.75 INCHES. THE FORECAST NEEDED ONLY SLIGHT TIMING ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE ONSET OF THE PCPN TODAY OTHERWISE...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES
SPREADING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH CATEGORICAL POPS.

THE DECISION TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WAS A
DIFFICULT ONE AND DRIVEN NOT SO MUCH ON CONCERNS FOR RAINS EXCEEDING
4 INCHES IN TOO MANY AREAS...BUT MORE-SO DUE TO THE COINCIDENCE OF
THE HEAVY RAINS WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE CYCLE COMING UP
THIS EVENING. AREAS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AROUND LUDOWICI ALSO
RECEIVED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE LAST EVENT. THE GFS HAS
BEEN SHOWING SOME OF THE DEEPEST OMEGA IN RECENT MEMORY ON
TIME/HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND THE FORCING AND
DEEP MOISTURE TANDEM REMAINS EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE.

LATE TONIGHT...RAINS COULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW TAKES BETTER DEFINITION AND A DRY SLOT
BEGINS TO PUNCH IN FORM THE SW. THE COASTAL FRONT MAY NUDGE CLOSE
TO THE COAST LATE AND WE RAISED LOW TEMPS AT BIT ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95 TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE EAST/NORTHEAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE 18/00 UTC NAM...GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MARKED DRY SLOT PUNCHING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE ONSET OF DEEP LAYER
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS A
TEMPORARY LULL IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
EVENTUAL EXTENT OF WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. GIVEN
THE MOST LIKELY JUXTAPOSITION OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND
DEFORMATION ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LOW JUSTIFIES LIKELY POPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES...TAPERED TO
HIGH-END CHANCE POPS SOUTH/WEST. ALSO OF NOTE...DUE TO STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ELEVATED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY REMAIN UNCERTAIN...IN THE 60S MOST
LOCATIONS BUT PERHAPS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND PROGRESS OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN COMMA FEATURE
OVER FORECAST AREA WILL GRADUALLY RELAX WITH TIME AS THE UPPER LOW
ADVANCES OFFSHORE. THUS...POPS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF LOWERING POPS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST
TRANSITIONS FROM CHANCE/LIKELY POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...SUNDAY WILL BE A
BREEZY/WINDY DAY AS THE N/NW GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE AND INLAND HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR
MID-APRIL.

EXPECT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS MONDAY...INCLUDING MORE SUNSHINE AND
DIMINISHING WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S...CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

LAKE WINDS...GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY PROMPT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED. THEN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. SUSPECT MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL OVERDOING THE CIGS...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS. AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND CIG
HEIGHTS WILL DROP AT KCHS. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH RAIN COVERING
BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIFR AT KSAV IN THE EARLY
MORNING. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE EAST UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS INTO SUNDAY. VFR
THEREAFTER. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN PINCHED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME RELAXATION
OF THE GRADIENT LATER TONIGHT AS THE COASTAL FRONT NUDGES FURTHER
TOWARD THE COAST. A SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR NE FLOW 20 TO
25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT LOCALLY. SEAS 5-7 FT NEAR SHORE AND 7 TO
10 FT WELL OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COMMON SATURDAY...THEN
GALES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...AND WIND/SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE TO HIGH RISK TODAY...HIGHEST ALONG THE
GEORGIA COAST. AN ENHANCED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MAINLY COASTAL AREAS COINCIDENT WITH THE HIGH TIDE
THIS EVENING BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING FURTHER INLAND IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE AS STORM TOTAL RAINFALL LIKELY BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES.

MAIN STEM RIVERS AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES WILL LIKELY SEE
SIGNIFICANT RISES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING DEPENDING
ON OBSERVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE COAST FOR THE LATE
EVENING HIGH TIDE BASED ON CURRENT DEPARTURES OF 1-2 FT AND THE
FACT THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN NE OR ENE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ114>119-137>141.
     HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GAZ117-119-139-141.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SCZ048>051.
     HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048-049-051.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ330-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BDC
MARINE...SPR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JRL






  [top]

000
FXUS62 KFFC 181738 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...

HAVE MADE SEVERAL MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS. INCREASED POPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH
DEFORMATION AXIS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. SO FAR...TEMPS
ARE DOING OKAY AND SO NO UPDATE THERE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A BIT LOWER ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
GEORGIA WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR RAIN STILL NOT QUITE REACHING THE
GROUND UP THERE BUT THE COLUMN SHOULD SATURATE SHORTLY. STILL DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH UP THERE OVERALL. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

RAINY AND WINDY TO END THE WEEK AND KICK OFF THE WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US SHOWS STRONG LATE
SEASON HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST SEABOARD WITH WEDGING ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. ALONG THE
GULF COAST...A BROAD TROUGH EXISTS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OF
FLORIDA. SOUTH FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TRANSITIONING TO
SOUTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SETUP WITH
RAPID EXPANSION OF RAIN SHIELD INTO MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AT
THIS HOUR. MEANWHILE...ALOFT...UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE PROVIDING ADDED SUPPORT TO DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD. THUNDER
CONTINUES TO BE PREVALENT FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA BUT DECREASES RAPIDLY TOWARD THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
AND NO PLANS FOR IMMEDIATE INCLUSION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM AS GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK OF LOW WHILE THE EURO IS
FURTHER SOUTH. BASED ON TRENDS SEEN THIS MORNING AND RECENT TRACK
RECORD IN THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...ACTUALLY PREFER A MORE NORTHERN
TRANSLATION OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS SOLUTION HAS SOME
BACKING FROM LOCAL WRF AND HRRR SOLUTIONS AS WELL AND WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES PRIMARILY. AS FAR A
AMOUNTS...I DO INCREASE THESE AS WELL TO THE NORTH BUT CERTAINLY
WILL SEE SOME CUTOFF OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM GULF CONVECTION SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED IN THAT REGARD.

AS FAR AS LOCAL THUNDER POTENTIAL...SREF NOW INDICATING SOME
MUCAPE EASING INTO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AND STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
BY THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TIER. GIVEN LIGHTNING IS
ALREADY APPROACHING SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...THIS
PORTION OF FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES LATER THIS MORNING.

WINDS LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE AS WELL AND PROBLEMATIC IN FORECASTING
GIVEN HIGH ADVERTISED VALUES AND PLACEMENT OF WEDGE. BY THIS
EVENING...NAM12 ACTUALLY INDICATES 52 KNOTS AT 925MB OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS WHICH IS DISTURBING BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE GIVEN WEDGE AND INVERSION IN PLACE.
MODELS INDICATING SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 KT
SUSTAINED OVER SOUTHERN TIER BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NORTH GA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. WILL THEREFORE HOIST
A SEGMENTED WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL GO
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SUN
WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SUN MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.

00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES ARE INCREASING MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S...MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU.

01

HYDROLOGY...
STILL LEANING TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN
MORE LOCAL FLAVOR ADDED THEREAFTER AS I KEEP POPS IN A LITTLE
LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST ON SATURDAY. THIS INCREASES ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL TOTALS TO IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE MORE LIKELY. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...2 INCH CONTOUR IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND WILL ADJUST
FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO
EXTENDED FLOOD WATCH IN TIME GIVEN SLOWER RETREAT OF RAIN ON SATURDAY.

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR FRIDAY APRIL 18...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1942     54 1902     64 1969     32 1936
                1927
   KATL      87 2002     50 1983     69 1927     33 1997
                1937
                1896
   KCSG      91 2002     62 1983     69 2006     37 1962
                                                    1956
   KMCN      90 1967     55 1921     66 1922     33 2001
                1955

RECORDS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 19...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      91 1917     51 1984     64 1927     30 1983
   KATL      88 1941     50 1983     66 1927     30 1983
   KCSG      91 2002     59 1983     68 1995     33 1983
                            1953
   KMCN      91 2002     59 1910     66 1927     31 1983
                1976
                1968

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO IFR ALREADY MOVED IN SOUTH...EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
SPREADING NORTH WITH EVERYONE MVFR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
IFR AND SHRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR VSBY WIDESPREAD AS WELL. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY MORNING AS SHRA MOVES OUT BUT STAYING MVFR
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. E TO ENE WINDS GENERALLY 12-18KT
WITH GUSTS 10KT ABOVE THAT...AND AS IS TYPICAL EXPECT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AT ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON OCCURRENCE OF EVENTS.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON TIMING.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  46  62  51 / 100 100  80  20
ATLANTA         56  47  62  53 / 100 100  60  20
BLAIRSVILLE     57  45  63  50 /  80  80  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    59  47  65  53 /  90 100  50  20
COLUMBUS        57  49  65  56 / 100 100  40  10
GAINESVILLE     54  47  61  51 / 100 100  70  20
MACON           55  50  64  53 / 100 100  50  20
ROME            61  47  67  54 /  60  60  30  10
PEACHTREE CITY  56  47  63  52 / 100 100  50  10
VIDALIA         61  55  67  58 / 100 100  60  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HARRIS...HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...
TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...
MADISON...MERIWETHER...MORGAN...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TROUP...
WALTON...WHITE...WILKES.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 181600 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1200 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...

HAVE MADE SEVERAL MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS. INCREASED POPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH
DEFORMATION AXIS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. SO FAR...TEMPS
ARE DOING OKAY AND SO NO UPDATE THERE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A BIT LOWER ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
GEORGIA WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR RAIN STILL NOT QUITE REACHING THE
GROUND UP THERE BUT THE COLUMN SHOULD SATURATE SHORTLY. STILL DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH UP THERE OVERALL. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

.RAINY AND WINDY TO END THE WEEK AND KICK OFF THE WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US SHOWS STRONG LATE
SEASON HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST SEABOARD WITH WEDGING ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. ALONG THE
GULF COAST...A BROAD TROUGH EXISTS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OF
FLORIDA. SOUTH FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TRANSITIONING TO
SOUTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SETUP WITH
RAPID EXPANSION OF RAIN SHIELD INTO MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AT
THIS HOUR. MEANWHILE...ALOFT...UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE PROVIDING ADDED SUPPORT TO DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD. THUNDER
CONTINUES TO BE PREVALENT FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA BUT DECREASES RAPIDLY TOWARD THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
AND NO PLANS FOR IMMEDIATE INCLUSION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM AS GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK OF LOW WHILE THE EURO IS
FURTHER SOUTH. BASED ON TRENDS SEEN THIS MORNING AND RECENT TRACK
RECORD IN THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...ACTUALLY PREFER A MORE NORTHERN
TRANSLATION OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS SOLUTION HAS SOME
BACKING FROM LOCAL WRF AND HRRR SOLUTIONS AS WELL AND WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES PRIMARILY. AS FAR A
AMOUNTS...I DO INCREASE THESE AS WELL TO THE NORTH BUT CERTAINLY
WILL SEE SOME CUTOFF OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM GULF CONVECTION SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED IN THAT REGARD.

AS FAR AS LOCAL THUNDER POTENTIAL...SREF NOW INDICATING SOME
MUCAPE EASING INTO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AND STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
BY THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TIER. GIVEN LIGHTNING IS
ALREADY APPROACHING SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...THIS
PORTION OF FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES LATER THIS MORNING.

WINDS LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE AS WELL AND PROBLEMATIC IN FORECASTING
GIVEN HIGH ADVERTISED VALUES AND PLACEMENT OF WEDGE. BY THIS
EVENING...NAM12 ACTUALLY INDICATES 52 KNOTS AT 925MB OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS WHICH IS DISTURBING BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE GIVEN WEDGE AND INVERSION IN PLACE.
MODELS INDICATING SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 KT
SUSTAINED OVER SOUTHERN TIER BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NORTH GA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. WILL THEREFORE HOIST
A SEGMENTED WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL GO
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SUN
WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SUN MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.

00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES ARE INCREASING MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S...MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU.

01

HYDROLOGY...
STILL LEANING TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN
MORE LOCAL FLAVOR ADDED THEREAFTER AS I KEEP POPS IN A LITTLE
LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST ON SATURDAY. THIS INCREASES ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL TOTALS TO IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE MORE LIKELY. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...2 INCH CONTOUR IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND WILL ADJUST
FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO
EXTENDED FLOOD WATCH IN TIME GIVEN SLOWER RETREAT OF RAIN ON SATURDAY.

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR FRIDAY APRIL 18...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1942     54 1902     64 1969     32 1936
                1927
   KATL      87 2002     50 1983     69 1927     33 1997
                1937
                1896
   KCSG      91 2002     62 1983     69 2006     37 1962
                                                    1956
   KMCN      90 1967     55 1921     66 1922     33 2001
                1955

RECORDS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 19...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      91 1917     51 1984     64 1927     30 1983
   KATL      88 1941     50 1983     66 1927     30 1983
   KCSG      91 2002     59 1983     68 1995     33 1983
                            1953
   KMCN      91 2002     59 1910     66 1927     31 1983
                1976
                1968

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE... SHRA CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF COAST NOW IMPACTING CSG AND MCN TERMINALS FOLLOWED SOON BY ATL
AREA TERMINALS. CIGS FOLLOWING SUIT THUS FAR WITH MAINLY VFR OVER
THE LOCAL AREA BUT MVFR QUICKLY DEVELOPING WITHIN RAIN SHIELD AND
LIFTING NORTH. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION TO MVFR FOR ALL TERMINALS
LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN IFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ADVERTISING A LATER CLEARING TREND THAN MODELS INDICATE AND KEEP
IFR THROUGHOUT ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. AS FAR AS WINDS...BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...COULD
SEE SOME HIGH GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 30 KTS. WITHING HEAVIER
SHRA...THESE VALUES COULD BE EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER AND WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR TIMING AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  46  62  51 / 100 100  60  10
ATLANTA         56  47  62  53 / 100 100  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  45  63  50 /  70  70  60  10
CARTERSVILLE    59  47  65  53 /  80  80  40  10
COLUMBUS        57  49  65  56 / 100 100  30  10
GAINESVILLE     54  47  61  51 / 100 100  60  10
MACON           55  50  64  53 / 100 100  30  20
ROME            61  47  67  54 /  70  70  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  56  47  63  52 / 100 100  30  10
VIDALIA         61  55  67  58 / 100 100  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HARRIS...HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...
TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...
MADISON...MERIWETHER...MORGAN...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TROUP...
WALTON...WHITE...WILKES.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCHS 181515
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1115 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY TO A POSITION
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST LATE SATURDAY THEN WILL ADVANCE OFFSHORE SUNDAY.
THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ONGOING FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. WE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS TO INCREASE CHANCES LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS DEVELOPING QUICKLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH
PRECIP DEVELOPING AS A RESULT. WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE
WIDESPREAD RAIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OTHER PRODUCTS LOOK
GOOD AND WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY TIMING ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE LATE
MORNING UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE SYNOPTIC PLAYERS IN PLACE THIS MORNING INCLUDE THE SURFACE
WEDGE SOLIDLY ANCHORED IN AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP CONVECTION HAD ERUPTED OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO WITH IR SATELLITE TOPS COOLING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
COAST REGION AS DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS MINGLE
TO THE SW OF OUR REGION. CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF REGION WITH EXCELLENT MODEL CONSENSUS THAT MERGING MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CUT-OFF A MID LEVEL LOW OVER/NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING.

RAINS WILL INCREASE TODAY FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA THIS MORNING INTO
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MID AFTERNOON AND INTO THE CHARLESTON
AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE
IMPRESSIVE UPPER DIFFLUENCE...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP
OMEGA TAKING SHAPE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE PWATS RISE OVER
1.75 INCHES. THE FORECAST NEEDED ONLY SLIGHT TIMING ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE ONSET OF THE PCPN TODAY OTHERWISE...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES
SPREADING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH CATEGORICAL POPS.

THE DECISION TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WAS A
DIFFICULT ONE AND DRIVEN NOT SO MUCH ON CONCERNS FOR RAINS EXCEEDING
4 INCHES IN TOO MANY AREAS...BUT MORE-SO DUE TO THE COINCIDENCE OF
THE HEAVY RAINS WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE CYCLE COMING UP
THIS EVENING. AREAS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AROUND LUDOWICI ALSO
RECEIVED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE LAST EVENT. THE GFS HAS
BEEN SHOWING SOME OF THE DEEPEST OMEGA IN RECENT MEMORY ON
TIME/HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND THE FORCING AND
DEEP MOISTURE TANDEM REMAINS EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE.

LATE TONIGHT...RAINS COULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW TAKES BETTER DEFINITION AND A DRY SLOT
BEGINS TO PUNCH IN FORM THE SW. THE COASTAL FRONT MAY NUDGE CLOSE
TO THE COAST LATE AND WE RAISED LOW TEMPS AT BIT ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95 TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE EAST/NORTHEAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE 18/00 UTC NAM...GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MARKED DRY SLOT PUNCHING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE ONSET OF DEEP LAYER
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS A
TEMPORARY LULL IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
EVENTUAL EXTENT OF WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. GIVEN
THE MOST LIKELY JUXTAPOSITION OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND
DEFORMATION ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LOW JUSTIFIES LIKELY POPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES...TAPERED TO
HIGH-END CHANCE POPS SOUTH/WEST. ALSO OF NOTE...DUE TO STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ELEVATED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY REMAIN UNCERTAIN...IN THE 60S MOST
LOCATIONS BUT PERHAPS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND PROGRESS OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN COMMA FEATURE
OVER FORECAST AREA WILL GRADUALLY RELAX WITH TIME AS THE UPPER LOW
ADVANCES OFFSHORE. THUS...POPS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF LOWERING POPS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST
TRANSITIONS FROM CHANCE/LIKELY POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...SUNDAY WILL BE A
BREEZY/WINDY DAY AS THE N/NW GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE AND INLAND HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR
MID-APRIL.

EXPECT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS MONDAY...INCLUDING MORE SUNSHINE AND
DIMINISHING WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S...CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

LAKE WINDS...GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY PROMPT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED. THEN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. SUSPECT MODEL
GUIDANCE IS TOO QUICK IN BRINGING MVFR CIGS INTO BOTH TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS. MAINTAINED A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION WITH MVFR CIGS REACHING KSAV PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. KEPT KCHS JUST
ABOVE MVFR FOR NOW. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE SOUTH-
NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING RAINS TO REACH KSAV
BY MID AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 18Z-19Z WITH PREVAILING RAINFALL NOT
REACHING KCHS UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME SATURDAY...BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS
IN RAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS INTO SUNDAY. VFR
THEREAFTER. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN PINCHED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME RELAXATION
OF THE GRADIENT LATER TONIGHT AS THE COASTAL FRONT NUDGES FURTHER
TOWARD THE COAST. A SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR NE FLOW 20 TO
25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT LOCALLY. SEAS 5-7 FT NEAR SHORE AND 7 TO
10 FT WELL OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COMMON SATURDAY...THEN
GALES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...AND WIND/SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE TO HIGH RISK TODAY...HIGHEST ALONG THE
GEORGIA COAST. AN ENHANCED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MAINLY COASTAL AREAS COINCIDENT WITH THE HIGH TIDE
THIS EVENING BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING FURTHER INLAND IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE AS STORM TOTAL RAINFALL LIKELY BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES.

MAIN STEM RIVERS AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES WILL LIKELY SEE
SIGNIFICANT RISES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING DEPENDING
ON OBSERVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES. GIVEN THE TIDE DEPARTURES THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS AND
THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE GFS EXTRATROPICAL PREDICTIONS...IT IS
LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED TONIGHT ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND PERHAPS AT FORT PULASKI.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ114>119-137>141.
     HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SCZ048>051.
     HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048-049-051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ330-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KFFC 181136
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

..RAINY AND WINDY TO END THE WEEK AND KICK OFF THE WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US SHOWS STRONG LATE
SEASON HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST SEABOARD WITH WEDGING ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. ALONG THE
GULF COAST...A BROAD TROUGH EXISTS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OF
FLORIDA. SOUTH FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TRANSITIONING TO
SOUTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SETUP WITH
RAPID EXPANSION OF RAIN SHIELD INTO MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AT
THIS HOUR. MEANWHILE...ALOFT...UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE PROVIDING ADDED SUPPORT TO DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD. THUNDER
CONTINUES TO BE PREVALENT FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA BUT DECREASES RAPIDLY TOWARD THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
AND NO PLANS FOR IMMEDIATE INCLUSION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM AS GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK OF LOW WHILE THE EURO IS
FURTHER SOUTH. BASED ON TRENDS SEEN THIS MORNING AND RECENT TRACK
RECORD IN THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...ACTUALLY PREFER A MORE NORTHERN
TRANSLATION OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS SOLUTION HAS SOME
BACKING FROM LOCAL WRF AND HRRR SOLUTIONS AS WELL AND WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES PRIMARILY. AS FAR A
AMOUNTS...I DO INCREASE THESE AS WELL TO THE NORTH BUT CERTAINLY
WILL SEE SOME CUTOFF OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM GULF CONVECTION SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED IN THAT REGARD.

AS FAR AS LOCAL THUNDER POTENTIAL...SREF NOW INDICATING SOME
MUCAPE EASING INTO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AND STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
BY THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TIER. GIVEN LIGHTNING IS
ALREADY APPROACHING SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...THIS
PORTION OF FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES LATER THIS MORNING.

WINDS LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE AS WELL AND PROBLEMATIC IN FORECASTING
GIVEN HIGH ADVERTISED VALUES AND PLACEMENT OF WEDGE. BY THIS
EVENING...NAM12 ACTUALLY INDICATES 52 KNOTS AT 925MB OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS WHICH IS DISTURBING BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE GIVEN WEDGE AND INVERSION IN PLACE.
MODELS INDICATING SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 KT
SUSTAINED OVER SOUTHERN TIER BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NORTH GA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. WILL THEREFORE HOIST
A SEGMENTED WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL GO
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SUN
WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SUN MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.

00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES ARE INCREASING MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S...MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU.

01

HYDROLOGY...
STILL LEANING TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN
MORE LOCAL FLAVOR ADDED THEREAFTER AS I KEEP POPS IN A LITTLE
LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST ON SATURDAY. THIS INCREASES ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL TOTALS TO IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE MORE LIKELY. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...2 INCH CONTOUR IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND WILL ADJUST
FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO
EXTENDED FLOOD WATCH IN TIME GIVEN SLOWER RETREAT OF RAIN ON SATURDAY.

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR FRIDAY APRIL 18...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1942     54 1902     64 1969     32 1936
                1927
   KATL      87 2002     50 1983     69 1927     33 1997
                1937
                1896
   KCSG      91 2002     62 1983     69 2006     37 1962
                                                    1956
   KMCN      90 1967     55 1921     66 1922     33 2001
                1955

RECORDS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 19...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      91 1917     51 1984     64 1927     30 1983
   KATL      88 1941     50 1983     66 1927     30 1983
   KCSG      91 2002     59 1983     68 1995     33 1983
                            1953
   KMCN      91 2002     59 1910     66 1927     31 1983
                1976
                1968

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE... SHRA CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF COAST NOW IMPACTING CSG AND MCN TERMINALS FOLLOWED SOON BY ATL
AREA TERMINALS. CIGS FOLLOWING SUIT THUS FAR WITH MAINLY VFR OVER
THE LOCAL AREA BUT MVFR QUICKLY DEVELOPING WITHIN RAIN SHIELD AND
LIFTING NORTH. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION TO MVFR FOR ALL TERMINALS
LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN IFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ADVERTISING A LATER CLEARING TREND THAN MODELS INDICATE AND KEEP
IFR THROUGHOUT ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. AS FAR AS WINDS...BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...COULD
SEE SOME HIGH GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 30 KTS. WITHING HEAVIER
SHRA...THESE VALUES COULD BE EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER AND WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR TIMING AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  46  62  51 / 100 100  60  10
ATLANTA         56  47  62  53 /  90  80  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  45  63  50 /  70  80  60  10
CARTERSVILLE    59  47  65  53 /  70  70  40  10
COLUMBUS        57  49  65  56 / 100  70  30  10
GAINESVILLE     54  47  61  51 /  80  80  60  10
MACON           55  50  64  53 / 100  90  30  20
ROME            61  47  67  54 /  60  70  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  56  47  63  52 / 100  80  30  10
VIDALIA         61  55  67  58 / 100  90  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HARRIS...HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...
HANCOCK...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...
PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...
MADISON...MERIWETHER...MORGAN...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TROUP...
WALTON...WHITE...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE






000
FXUS62 KCAE 181131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
731 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION TODAY. BELIEVE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BUT WILL BE DELAYED ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF
THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE
START TIME OF THE RAIN. BELIEVE IT WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTH PART
THIS MORNING...THE CENTRAL SECTION ABOUT MIDDAY AND THE NORTH PART
LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDINESS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY. THE NAM IS
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD AND MAY BE CORRECT SINCE THE
H5 CUT-OFF LOW MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE POPS
WERE CLOSE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR POP FORECAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GFS
WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL AND SHOWS
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED LAPSE RATES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM KEPT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HELD OFF
INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM AND GFS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORT A SOAKING
RAIN WITH TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES. IF THESE AMOUNTS OCCUR HERE AND
IN THE HEADWATERS...FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF MVFR
CIGS IN AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY SPREAD WEST INTO
THE FA. CURRENT RADAR INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS SPREADING
UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS N FL/S AL/S GA. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL BY AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 181131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
731 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION TODAY. BELIEVE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BUT WILL BE DELAYED ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF
THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE
START TIME OF THE RAIN. BELIEVE IT WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTH PART
THIS MORNING...THE CENTRAL SECTION ABOUT MIDDAY AND THE NORTH PART
LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDINESS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY. THE NAM IS
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD AND MAY BE CORRECT SINCE THE
H5 CUT-OFF LOW MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE POPS
WERE CLOSE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR POP FORECAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GFS
WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL AND SHOWS
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED LAPSE RATES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM KEPT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HELD OFF
INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM AND GFS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORT A SOAKING
RAIN WITH TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES. IF THESE AMOUNTS OCCUR HERE AND
IN THE HEADWATERS...FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF MVFR
CIGS IN AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY SPREAD WEST INTO
THE FA. CURRENT RADAR INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS SPREADING
UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS N FL/S AL/S GA. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL BY AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180943
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
543 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION TODAY. BELIEVE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BUT WILL BE DELAYED ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF
THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE
START TIME OF THE RAIN. BELIEVE IT WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTH PART
THIS MORNING...THE CENTRAL SECTION ABOUT MIDDAY AND THE NORTH PART
LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDINESS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY. THE NAM IS
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD AND MAY BE CORRECT SINCE THE
H5 CUT-OFF LOW MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE POPS
WERE CLOSE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR POP FORECAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GFS
WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL AND SHOWS
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED LAPSE RATES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM KEPT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HELD OFF
INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM AND GFS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORT A SOAKING
RAIN WITH TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES. IF THESE AMOUNTS OCCUR HERE AND
IN THE HEADWATERS...FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF MVFR
CIGS IN AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY SPREAD WEST INTO
THE FA. CURRENT RADAR INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS SPREADING
UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS N FL/S AL/S GA. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL BY AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180943
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
543 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION TODAY. BELIEVE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BUT WILL BE DELAYED ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF
THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE
START TIME OF THE RAIN. BELIEVE IT WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTH PART
THIS MORNING...THE CENTRAL SECTION ABOUT MIDDAY AND THE NORTH PART
LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDINESS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY. THE NAM IS
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD AND MAY BE CORRECT SINCE THE
H5 CUT-OFF LOW MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE POPS
WERE CLOSE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR POP FORECAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GFS
WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL AND SHOWS
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED LAPSE RATES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM KEPT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HELD OFF
INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM AND GFS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORT A SOAKING
RAIN WITH TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES. IF THESE AMOUNTS OCCUR HERE AND
IN THE HEADWATERS...FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF MVFR
CIGS IN AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY SPREAD WEST INTO
THE FA. CURRENT RADAR INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS SPREADING
UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS N FL/S AL/S GA. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL BY AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 180839
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
439 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY TO A POSITION
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST LATE SATURDAY THEN WILL ADVANCE OFFSHORE SUNDAY.
THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THICKENING OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUD
COVERAGE AND STEADY ONSHORE FLUX IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS LEVELED
TEMPS OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MANY AREAS...QUITE A BIT MILDER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO. DEEP MOISTURE WAS INVADING FLORIDA AND SW GEORGIA
AS MID/UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENING AND BACKING IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
AND ELONGATED SHORT WAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX EARLY THIS
MORNING. WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF
I-16 TOWARD DAYBREAK OTHERWISE MOST WILL SEE DRY WEATHER TO START
THE DAY.

THE SYNOPTIC PLAYERS IN PLACE THIS MORNING INCLUDE THE SURFACE
WEDGE SOLIDLY ANCHORED IN AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP CONVECTION HAD ERUPTED OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO WITH IR SATELLITE TOPS COOLING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
COAST REGION AS DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS MINGLE
TO THE SW OF OUR REGION. CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF REGION WITH EXCELLENT MODEL CONSENSUS THAT MERGING MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CUT-OFF A MID LEVEL LOW OVER/NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING.

RAINS WILL INCREASE TODAY FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA THIS MORNING INTO
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MID AFTERNOON AND INTO THE CHARLESTON
AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE
IMPRESSIVE UPPER DIFLUENCE...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP
OMEGA TAKING SHAPE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE PWATS RISE OVER
1.75 INCHES. THE FORECAST NEEDED ONLY SLIGHT TIMING ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE ONSET OF THE PCPN TODAY OTHERWISE...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES
SPREADING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH CATEGORICAL POPS.

THE DECISION TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WAS A
DIFFICULT ONE AND DRIVEN NOT SO MUCH ON CONCERNS FOR RAINS EXCEEDING
4 INCHES IN TOO MANY AREAS...BUT MORE-SO DUE TO THE COINCIDENCE OF
THE HEAVY RAINS WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE CYCLE COMING UP
THIS EVENING. AREAS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AROUND LUDOWICI ALSO
RECEIVED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE LAST EVENT. THE GFS HAS
BEEN SHOWING SOME OF THE DEEPEST OMEGA IN RECENT MEMORY ON
TIME/HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND THE FORCING AND
DEEP MOISTURE TANDEM REMAINS EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE.

LATE TONIGHT...RAINS COULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW TAKES BETTER DEFINITION AND A DRY SLOT
BEGINS TO PUNCH IN FORM THE SW. THE COASTAL FRONT MAY NUDGE CLOSE
TO THE COAST LATE AND WE RAISED LOW TEMPS AT BIT ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95 TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE EAST/NORTHEAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE 18/00 UTC NAM...GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MARKED DRY SLOT PUNCHING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE ONSET OF DEEP LAYER
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS A
TEMPORARY LULL IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
EVENTUAL EXTENT OF WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. GIVEN
THE MOST LIKELY JUXTAPOSITION OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND
DEFORMATION ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LOW JUSTIFIES LIKELY POPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES...TAPERED TO
HIGH-END CHANCE POPS SOUTH/WEST. ALSO OF NOTE...DUE TO STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ELEVATED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY REMAIN UNCERTAIN...IN THE 60S MOST
LOCATIONS BUT PERHAPS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND PROGRESS OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN COMMA FEATURE
OVER FORECAST AREA WILL GRADUALLY RELAX WITH TIME AS THE UPPER LOW
ADVANCES OFFSHORE. THUS...POPS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF LOWERING POPS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST
TRANSITIONS FROM CHANCE/LIKELY POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...SUNDAY WILL BE A
BREEZY/WINDY DAY AS THE N/NW GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE AND INLAND HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR
MID-APRIL.

EXPECT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS MONDAY...INCLUDING MORE SUNSHINE AND
DIMINISHING WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S...CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

LAKE WINDS...GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY PROMPT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED. THEN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. SUSPECT MODEL
GUIDANCE IS TOO QUICK IN BRINGING MVFR CIGS INTO BOTH TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS. MAINTAINED A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION WITH MVFR CIGS REACHING KSAV PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. KEPT KCHS JUST
ABOVE MVFR FOR NOW. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE SOUTH-
NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING RAINS TO REACH KSAV
BY MID AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 18Z-19Z WITH PREVAILING RAINFALL NOT
REACHING KCHS UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME SATURDAY...BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS
IN RAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS INTO SUNDAY. VFR
THEREAFTER. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN PINCHED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME RELAXATION
OF THE GRADIENT LATER TONIGHT AS THE COASTAL FRONT NUDGES FURTHER
TOWARD THE COAST. A SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR NE FLOW 20 TO
25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT LOCALLY. SEAS 5-7 FT NEAR SHORE AND 7 TO
10 FT WELL OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COMMON SATURDAY...THEN
GALES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...AND WIND/SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE TO HIGH RISK TODAY...HIGHEST ALONG THE
GEORGIA COAST. AN ENHANCED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MAINLY COASTAL AREAS COINCIDENT WITH THE HIGH TIDE
THIS EVENING BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING FURTHER INLAND IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE AS STORM TOTAL RAINFALL LIKELY BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES
MAINLY AREAS.

MAIN STEM RIVERS AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES WILL LIKELY SEE
SIGNIFICANT RISES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING DEPENDING
ON OBSERVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES. GIVEN THE TIDE DEPARTURES THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS AND
THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE GFS EXTRATROPICAL PREDICTIONS...IT IS
LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED TONIGHT ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND PERHAPS AT FORT PULASKI.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR GAZ114>119-137>141.
     HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-
     139-141.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR SCZ048>051.
     HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048-049-
     051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ330-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180830
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
430 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION TODAY. BELIEVE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BUT WILL BE DELAYED ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF
THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE
START TIME OF THE RAIN. BELIEVE IT WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTH PART
THIS MORNING...THE CENTRAL SECTION ABOUT MIDDAY AND THE NORTH PART
LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDINESS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY. THE NAM IS
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD AND MAY BE CORRECT SINCE THE
H5 CUT-OFF LOW MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE POPS
WERE CLOSE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR POP FORECAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GFS
WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL AND SHOWS
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED LAPSE RATES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM KEPT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HELD OFF
INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM AND GFS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORT A SOAKING
RAIN WITH TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES. IF THESE AMOUNTS OCCUR HERE AND
IN THE HEADWATERS...FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT 05Z...EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR IN THE NEAR TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY
PROVIDE SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE
OTHER TERMINALS BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180830
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
430 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION TODAY. BELIEVE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BUT WILL BE DELAYED ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF
THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE
START TIME OF THE RAIN. BELIEVE IT WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTH PART
THIS MORNING...THE CENTRAL SECTION ABOUT MIDDAY AND THE NORTH PART
LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDINESS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY. THE NAM IS
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD AND MAY BE CORRECT SINCE THE
H5 CUT-OFF LOW MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE POPS
WERE CLOSE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR POP FORECAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GFS
WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL AND SHOWS
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED LAPSE RATES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM KEPT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HELD OFF
INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM AND GFS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORT A SOAKING
RAIN WITH TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES. IF THESE AMOUNTS OCCUR HERE AND
IN THE HEADWATERS...FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT 05Z...EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR IN THE NEAR TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY
PROVIDE SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE
OTHER TERMINALS BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 180806
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
406 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...RAINY AND WINDY TO END THE WEEK AND KICK OFF THE WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US SHOWS STRONG LATE
SEASON HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST SEABOARD WITH WEDGING ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. ALONG THE
GULF COAST...A BROAD TROUGH EXISTS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OF
FLORIDA. SOUTH FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TRANSITIONING TO
SOUTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SETUP WITH
RAPID EXPANSION OF RAIN SHIELD INTO MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AT
THIS HOUR. MEANWHILE...ALOFT...UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE PROVIDING ADDED SUPPORT TO DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD. THUNDER
CONTINUES TO BE PREVALENT FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA BUT DECREASES RAPIDLY TOWARD THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
AND NO PLANS FOR IMMEDIATE INCLUSION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM AS GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK OF LOW WHILE THE EURO IS
FURTHER SOUTH. BASED ON TRENDS SEEN THIS MORNING AND RECENT TRACK
RECORD IN THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...ACTUALLY PREFER A MORE NORTHERN
TRANSLATION OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS SOLUTION HAS SOME
BACKING FROM LOCAL WRF AND HRRR SOLUTIONS AS WELL AND WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES PRIMARILY. AS FAR A
AMOUNTS...I DO INCREASE THESE AS WELL TO THE NORTH BUT CERTAINLY
WILL SEE SOME CUTOFF OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM GULF CONVECTION SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED IN THAT REGARD.

AS FAR AS LOCAL THUNDER POTENTIAL...SREF NOW INDICATING SOME
MUCAPE EASING INTO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AND STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
BY THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TIER. GIVEN LIGHTNING IS
ALREADY APPROACHING SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...THIS
PORTION OF FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES LATER THIS MORNING.

WINDS LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE AS WELL AND PROBLEMATIC IN FORECASTING
GIVEN HIGH ADVERTISED VALUES AND PLACEMENT OF WEDGE. BY THIS
EVENING...NAM12 ACTUALLY INDICATES 52 KNOTS AT 925MB OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS WHICH IS DISTURBING BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE GIVEN WEDGE AND INVERSION IN PLACE.
MODELS INDICATING SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 KT
SUSTAINED OVER SOUTHERN TIER BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NORTH GA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. WILL THEREFORE HOIST
A SEGMENTED WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL GO
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEESE


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SUN
WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SUN MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.

00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES ARE INCREASING MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S...MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU.

01


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STILL LEANING TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN
MORE LOCAL FLAVOR ADDED THEREAFTER AS I KEEP POPS IN A LITTLE
LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST ON SATURDAY. THIS INCREASES ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL TOTALS TO IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE MORE LIKELY. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...2 INCH CONTOUR IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND WILL ADJUST
FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO
EXTENDED FLOOD WATCH IN TIME GIVEN SLOWER RETREAT OF RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR FRIDAY APRIL 18...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1942     54 1902     64 1969     32 1936
                1927
   KATL      87 2002     50 1983     69 1927     33 1997
                1937
                1896
   KCSG      91 2002     62 1983     69 2006     37 1962
                                                    1956
   KMCN      90 1967     55 1921     66 1922     33 2001
                1955

RECORDS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 19...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      91 1917     51 1984     64 1927     30 1983
   KATL      88 1941     50 1983     66 1927     30 1983
   KCSG      91 2002     59 1983     68 1995     33 1983
                            1953
   KMCN      91 2002     59 1910     66 1927     31 1983
                1976
                1968

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SHRA CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST AND
WILL IMPACT CSG TERMINAL FIRST FOLLOWED BY MCN AND THEN THE
ATL AREA TERMINALS. CIGS FOLLOWING SUIT THUS FAR WITH MAINLY VFR
OVER THE LOCAL AREA BUT MVFR QUICKLY DEVELOPING WITHIN RAIN
SHIELD JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION TO MVFR
FOR ALL TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN IFR BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ADVERTISING A LATER CLEARING TREND THAN MODELS INDICATE
AND KEEP IFR THROUGHOUT ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. AS FAR AS WINDS...BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE SOME HIGH GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 30 KTS.
WITHING HEAVIER SHRA...THESE VALUES COULD BE EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER
AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR TIMING AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  46  62  51 / 100 100  60  10
ATLANTA         56  47  62  53 /  90  80  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  45  63  50 /  70  80  60  10
CARTERSVILLE    59  47  65  53 /  70  70  40  10
COLUMBUS        57  49  65  56 / 100  70  30  10
GAINESVILLE     54  47  61  51 /  80  80  60  10
MACON           55  50  64  53 / 100  90  30  20
ROME            61  47  67  54 /  60  70  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  56  47  63  52 / 100  80  30  10
VIDALIA         61  55  67  58 / 100  90  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...
GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...
UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...
HANCOCK...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...
PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...
MADISON...MERIWETHER...MORGAN...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TROUP...
WALTON...WHITE...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE






000
FXUS62 KFFC 180656
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
256 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN IS WITH QPF AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR
OVERRUNNING GULF MOISTURE AGAINST A STRONG CLASSICAL CAD WEDGE FROM
A PARENT 1040+MB SFC HIGH SLIDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MODELS
ARE AT LEAST IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVELS CLOSING OFF A
LOW AND ENHANCING THE FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP MAINLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME DECENT DISCREPANCIES
WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE LAST 2
RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN FARTHER NORTH AND QUITE ROBUST ON
QPF...WHILE THE NAM HAS BEEN FARTHER SOUTH AND DRIER...WITH THE
ECMWF A BIT OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE ON QPF AND INCREASING FLOOD THREAT.

FOR POPS AND WEATHER...HAVE TRENDED ONSET OF LIKELY POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA SOONER THAN GUIDANCE AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TYPICALLY
ALLOWS FOR PRECIP BEFORE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HAVE RAMPED UP AFTER
06Z TONIGHT AND SPREAD INTO DEFINITE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL DURING
DAYTIME FRIDAY WITH LIKELY TO CHANCE INTO NORTH GA. WEDGE SHOULD
KEEP ENVIRONMENT STABLE SO LEFT OUT THUNDER MENTION. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS NEAR MEDIUM AS SOME MODELS
ARE INDICATING A DRY SLOT NOSING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE INCREASED IN
PARTS OF NORTH GA WITH ANY BANDING THAT OCCURS IN THE DEFORMATION
ZONE OF THE LOW AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. HAVE TRENDED
LIKELY AND CHANCE POPS TO EASTERN PORTIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE KEEPING SOME CHANCE POPS LINGERING INTO THE
START OF THE LONG TERM.

FOR TEMPS...TRICKY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH INFLUENCE OF WEDGE AND
MOISTURE OVERRUN. HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM MOS AND TRENDED COOLER
THOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS RAW GFS. LOOKING AT MANY AREAS STAYING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR HIGHS...AND NEAR RECORD LOW MAX VALUES FOR
COLUMBUS AND MACON /POSSIBLY ATHENS/.

BAKER

HYDROLOGY...
HPC GUIDANCE LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE FROM THE VAST
SPECTRUM OF OTHER MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS 2 TO 2.5 INCHES
PROGGED IN A 24-HR PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA AND IS CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF AND SREF...WHILE THE GFS IS ROBUST WITH UP TO 4 INCHES IN
THE SW...AND THE NAM IS ANOMALOUSLY DRY. HAVE GONE WITH A FLOOD
WATCH BASED ON THESE RAISED UPDATED AMOUNTS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A HAMILTON TO FORSYTH TO WARRENTON LINE. ONE COULD ARGUE
THE BETTER THREAT IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WHERE RECENT RAINFALL HAS
BROUGHT AMOUNTS TO 100-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND ABOVE NORMAL 7 DAY
STREAM FLOWS...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER AMOUNTS
FARTHER NORTH WEIGHED INTO THE CURRENT WATCH EXTENT. THIS WILL BE IN
AFFECT FROM 12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY.

BAKER

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF
REGION SAT AND EVEN EARLY SUN. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON H5/SFC
HEIGHT AND WIND FIELDS THOUGH LESS AGREEMENT WITH QPF. UPPER LOW
FCST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GA 12Z SAT WITH 12Z GFS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
MEDIAN OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND 12Z ECMWF FURTHEST SOUTH. BY 12Z SUN
UPPER LOW PROGGED ONLY TO MOVE 500NM OFF GA COAST. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER LATE SAT AND EVEN THRU EARLY SUN IN ERN COUNTIES. COULD
ALSO SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN THRU SAT AS WELL. WITH THE
CLOUDS AND LOW THICKNESS VALUES...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
SATURDAY WITH A QUICK REBOUND NEXT WEEK.

NEXT SYSTEM STILL LOOKING INTERESTING WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE IN WNWLY
FLOW ALOFT PROGGED TO AFFECT AREA ON TUES. UNUSUAL TO SEE THIS
KIND OF PATTERN IN LATE APRIL. WITH MORE MOISTURE AND STRONGER
LIFT...MIGHT SEE A LINE OF STORMS OR MCS. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S...MLCAPE
VALUES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SNELSON

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR FRIDAY APRIL 18...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1942     54 1902     64 1969     32 1936
                1927
   KATL      87 2002     50 1983     69 1927     33 1997
                1937
                1896
   KCSG      91 2002     62 1983     69 2006     37 1962
                                                    1956
   KMCN      90 1967     55 1921     66 1922     33 2001
                1955

RECORDS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 19...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      91 1917     51 1984     64 1927     30 1983
   KATL      88 1941     50 1983     66 1927     30 1983
   KCSG      91 2002     59 1983     68 1995     33 1983
                            1953
   KMCN      91 2002     59 1910     66 1927     31 1983
                1976
                1968


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SHRA CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST AND
WILL IMPACT CSG TERMINAL FIRST FOLLOWED BY MCN AND THEN THE
ATL AREA TERMINALS. CIGS FOLLOWING SUIT THUS FAR WITH MAINLY VFR
OVER THE LOCAL AREA BUT MVFR QUICKLY DEVELOPING WITHIN RAIN
SHIELD JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION TO MVFR
FOR ALL TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN IFR BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ADVERTISING A LATER CLEARING TREND THAN MODELS INDICATE
AND KEEP IFR THROUGHOUT ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. AS FAR AS WINDS...BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE SOME HIGH GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 30 KTS.
WITHING HEAVIER SHRA...THESE VALUES COULD BE EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER
AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR TIMING AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  46  62  46 /  60  70  30   5
ATLANTA         55  47  62  49 /  60  60  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     55  44  65  45 /  40  60  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    58  48  66  46 /  50  50  20   5
COLUMBUS        56  49  65  50 / 100  70  30   5
GAINESVILLE     54  47  61  47 /  60  60  30   5
MACON           55  48  63  46 / 100  80  40  10
ROME            60  47  68  47 /  40  40  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  55  46  63  45 /  70  60  30   5
VIDALIA         59  53  67  52 /  90  80  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...
GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...
JONES...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...
TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE






000
FXUS62 KCAE 180633
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
233 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION TODAY. BELIEVE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BUT WILL BE DELAYED ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF
THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. LEADED TOWARD THE SPC WRF FOR THE
START TIME OF THE RAIN. BELIEVE IT WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTH PART
THIS MORNING...THE CENTRAL SECTION ABOUT MIDDAY AND THE NORTH PART
LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDINESS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY. THE NAM IS
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD AND MAY BE CORRECT SINCE THE
H5 CUT-OFF LOW MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE POPS
WERE CLOSE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR POP FORECAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GFS
WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL AND SHOWS
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED LAPSE RATES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM KEPT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HELD OFF
INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM AND GFS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORT A SOAKING
RAIN WITH TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES. IF THESE AMOUNTS OCCUR HERE AND
IN THE HEADWATERS...FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT 05Z...EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR IN THE NEAR TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY
PROVIDE SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE
OTHER TERMINALS BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 180633
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
233 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION TODAY. BELIEVE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BUT WILL BE DELAYED ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF
THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. LEADED TOWARD THE SPC WRF FOR THE
START TIME OF THE RAIN. BELIEVE IT WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTH PART
THIS MORNING...THE CENTRAL SECTION ABOUT MIDDAY AND THE NORTH PART
LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDINESS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY. THE NAM IS
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD AND MAY BE CORRECT SINCE THE
H5 CUT-OFF LOW MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE POPS
WERE CLOSE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR POP FORECAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GFS
WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL AND SHOWS
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED LAPSE RATES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM KEPT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HELD OFF
INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM AND GFS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORT A SOAKING
RAIN WITH TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES. IF THESE AMOUNTS OCCUR HERE AND
IN THE HEADWATERS...FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT 05Z...EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR IN THE NEAR TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY
PROVIDE SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE
OTHER TERMINALS BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 180519
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
119 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS ON THE MIDNIGHT
UPDATE PACKAGE. HIGH CLOUDS WERE THICKENING AND SPREADING NE OVER
COASTAL CAROLINA PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...IN LINE WITH GENERAL
SKY COVER TRENDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. VERY
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING A DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND
6 KFT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
ISENTROPIC ASSENT SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD NORTH...
BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN ABOVE 50
BM UNTIL LATE. THEREFORE...MOST OF THE ASSENT WILL GO TOWARDS
CLOUD GENERATION VERSUS LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
DOMINATE ALL AREAS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS MAY BE
A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING LOW CLOUDS INTO AREAS NORTH OF
HAMPTON-BEAUFORT LINE BY LATE EVENING. ADJUST SKY COVER TO MATCH
EXPECTED TRENDS. CUT BACK ON GRIDDED POPS JUST A BIT ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE MEASURABLE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT DID MAINTAIN 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THE GEORGIA
COASTAL COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POWERFUL UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION ON FRIDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA.
MEANWHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE AREA...
ALBEIT GRADUALLY RETREATING TO THE NNE. AS THE DEEP LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST WHILE MID-LEVELS BECOME SOUTHERLY. THE COLUMN WILL
RAPIDLY MOISTEN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A 100 KT JET SHIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN GULF WILL SPREAD UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE MORNING AND THEN
INTO SOUTHERN SC DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR FRIDAY...HIGHEST TO THE SOUTH.

WE HAVE BEEN LEANING TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM
THOUGH THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE LOW TRACK. THE
STRONGEST QC FORCING LOOKS TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING OUT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY AMPLE FORCING AND A JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCHES FORECAST BY
WPC. MORE DETAILS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY...BECOMING NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT PRECIP WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY DUE
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT CAUSED BY MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE LOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SOME
POSSIBLE LATE DAY CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS QUIET FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. A WEAK TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH BY THE MID WEEK
TIME PERIOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO CROSS BY WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN
LIMITED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FEATURE A WARMING
TREND...REACHING AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. SUSPECT MODEL
GUIDANCE IS TOO QUICK IN BRINGING MVFR CIGS INTO BOTH TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS. MAINTAINED A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION WITH MVFR CIGS REACHING KSAV PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. KEPT KCHS JUST
ABOVE MVFR FOR NOW. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE SOUTH-
NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING RAINS TO REACH KSAV
BY MID AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 18Z-19Z WITH PREVAILING RAINFALL NOT
REACHING KCHS UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME SATURDAY...BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS
IN RAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF SUB-MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NASTY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
WITH WINDS NE 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 5-7
FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 7-9 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. OPTED TO EXTEND
FLAGS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT LIKELY TO PERSIST.

FAIRLY STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING BEFORE TEMPORARILY DIMINISHING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE WATERS AND THE STRONGEST GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTH
AND WEST. THEN A STRONG NORTHEAST GRADIENT REDEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD TO THE
WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BUT DISCUSS GALE POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RIP CURRENTS...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SWELL ON
FRIDAY BUT WE MAINTAINED SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY WITH 3 FT 10
SEC SWELL. THIS MAINTAINS A MODERATE RISK FOR CHARLESTON AND HIGH
RISK FARTHER SOUTH. AN ENHANCED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST WPC GUIDANCE
SHOWS 2-3 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF 3-4
INCHES. THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS 6 HR VALUES GREATER
THAN 4 INCHES. SINCE WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RECENT TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL EVENTS MOST AREAS SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE COASTAL AREAS DUE TO
THE TIDES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL. THE FRIDAY LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE
COULD BE AT OR NEAR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA IN CHARLESTON
AND/OR SAVANNAH DUE TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS. THUS ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE TIDE COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
ISSUES IN URBAN COASTAL LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WE WILL DISCUSS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

MAIN STEM RIVERS AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES WILL LIKELY SEE RISES
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING DEPENDING ON OBSERVED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-
     139-141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048-049-
     051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ330-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180517
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
117 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INT HE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
AND AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY WITH DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND HRRR HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN
A HALF INCH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT POPS TO
LOWER THEM THROUGH 12Z. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
THIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS AT 05Z...EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR IN THE NEAR TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY
PROVIDE SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE
OTHER TERMINALS BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180517
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
117 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INT HE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
AND AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY WITH DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND HRRR HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN
A HALF INCH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT POPS TO
LOWER THEM THROUGH 12Z. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
THIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS AT 05Z...EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR IN THE NEAR TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY
PROVIDE SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE
OTHER TERMINALS BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 180233
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1033 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INT HE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
AND AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY WITH DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND HRRR HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN
A HALF INCH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT POPS TO
LOWER THEM THROUGH 12Z. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
THIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY ENTERING THE TAF SITES. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH EASTERLY
WINDS PUSHING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
ENTER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHOWERS BEGINNING AT THE TAF SITES NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS BETWEEN 16Z AND THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180233
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1033 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INT HE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
AND AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY WITH DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND HRRR HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN
A HALF INCH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT POPS TO
LOWER THEM THROUGH 12Z. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
THIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY ENTERING THE TAF SITES. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH EASTERLY
WINDS PUSHING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
ENTER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHOWERS BEGINNING AT THE TAF SITES NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS BETWEEN 16Z AND THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180233
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1033 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INT HE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
AND AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY WITH DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND HRRR HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN
A HALF INCH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT POPS TO
LOWER THEM THROUGH 12Z. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
THIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY ENTERING THE TAF SITES. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH EASTERLY
WINDS PUSHING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
ENTER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHOWERS BEGINNING AT THE TAF SITES NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS BETWEEN 16Z AND THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180233
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1033 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INT HE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
AND AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY WITH DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND HRRR HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN
A HALF INCH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT POPS TO
LOWER THEM THROUGH 12Z. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
THIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY ENTERING THE TAF SITES. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH EASTERLY
WINDS PUSHING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
ENTER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHOWERS BEGINNING AT THE TAF SITES NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS BETWEEN 16Z AND THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180128 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
928 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INT HE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
AND AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY WITH DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND HRRR HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN
A HALF INCH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT POPS TO
LOWER THEM THROUGH 12Z. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
THIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS AND TRACKS EASTWARD. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP FROM 06Z
ONWARD. RAIN CHANCES WILL ENTER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHOWERS BEGINNING AT
THE TAF SITES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS
BETWEEN 16Z AND THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 180128 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
928 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INT HE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
AND AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY WITH DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND HRRR HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN
A HALF INCH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT POPS TO
LOWER THEM THROUGH 12Z. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
THIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS AND TRACKS EASTWARD. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP FROM 06Z
ONWARD. RAIN CHANCES WILL ENTER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHOWERS BEGINNING AT
THE TAF SITES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS
BETWEEN 16Z AND THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 180114
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
914 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE ONLY CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE IS TO RAISE
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY ABOUT A CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT DECOUPLE WITH A LINGERING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE. BEACH LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER
60S THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...WHILE
INLAND LOCATIONS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S WITH UPPER
40S-LOWER 50S ALONG THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. VERY
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING A DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND
6 KFT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
ISENTROPIC ASSENT SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD NORTH...
BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN ABOVE 50
BM UNTIL LATE. THEREFORE...MOST OF THE ASSENT WILL GO TOWARDS
CLOUD GENERATION VERSUS LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
DOMINATE ALL AREAS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS MAY BE
A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING LOW CLOUDS INTO AREAS NORTH OF
HAMPTON-BEAUFORT LINE BY LATE EVENING. ADJUST SKY COVER TO MATCH
EXPECTED TRENDS. CUT BACK ON GRIDDED POPS JUST A BIT ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE MEASURABLE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT DID MAINTAIN 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THE GEORGIA
COASTAL COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POWERFUL UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION ON FRIDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA.
MEANWHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE AREA...
ALBEIT GRADUALLY RETREATING TO THE NNE. AS THE DEEP LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST WHILE MID-LEVELS BECOME SOUTHERLY. THE COLUMN WILL
RAPIDLY MOISTEN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A 100 KT JET SHIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN GULF WILL SPREAD UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE MORNING AND THEN
INTO SOUTHERN SC DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR FRIDAY...HIGHEST TO THE SOUTH.

WE HAVE BEEN LEANING TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM
THOUGH THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE LOW TRACK. THE
STRONGEST QC FORCING LOOKS TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING OUT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY AMPLE FORCING AND A JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCHES FORECAST BY
WPC. MORE DETAILS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY...BECOMING NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT PRECIP WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY DUE
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT CAUSED BY MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE LOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SOME
POSSIBLE LATE DAY CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS QUIET FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. A WEAK TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH BY THE MID WEEK
TIME PERIOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO CROSS BY WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN
LIMITED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FEATURE A WARMING
TREND...REACHING AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. SUSPECT MODEL
GUIDANCE IS TOO QUICK IN BRINGING MVFR CIGS INTO BOTH TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS. OPTED FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION WITH MVFR CIGS REACHING KSAV BY 10Z. KEPT KCHS JUST ABOVE
MVFR FOR NOW. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE SOUTH-NORTH
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN TO REACH KSAV
BY MID AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 20Z WITH RAIN LIKELY NOT REACHING KCHS
UNTIL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT 4SM -RA AT KSAV FOR NOW
WITH NO MENTION OF RAIN AT KCHS JUST YET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF SUB-MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NASTY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
WITH WINDS NE 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 4-7
FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 7-9 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. OPTED TO EXTEND
FLAGS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT LIKELY TO PERSIST.

FAIRLY STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING BEFORE TEMPORARILY DIMINISHING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE WATERS AND THE STRONGEST GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTH
AND WEST. THEN A STRONG NORTHEAST GRADIENT REDEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD TO THE
WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BUT DISCUSS GALE POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RIP CURRENTS...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SWELL ON
FRIDAY BUT WE MAINTAINED SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY WITH 3 FT 10
SEC SWELL. THIS MAINTAINS A MODERATE RISK FOR CHARLESTON AND HIGH
RISK FARTHER SOUTH. AN ENHANCED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST WPC GUIDANCE
SHOWS 2-3 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF 3-4
INCHES. THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS 6 HR VALUES GREATER
THAN 4 INCHES. SINCE WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RECENT TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL EVENTS MOST AREAS SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE COASTAL AREAS DUE TO
THE TIDES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL. THE FRIDAY LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE
COULD BE AT OR NEAR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA IN CHARLESTON
AND/OR SAVANNAH DUE TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS. THUS ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE TIDE COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
ISSUES IN URBAN COASTAL LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WE WILL DISCUSS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

MAIN STEM RIVERS AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES WILL LIKELY SEE RISES
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING DEPENDING ON OBSERVED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR IS POISED TO PEAK 6.8 TO 6.95 FT
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF TIDAL LOADING THAT HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE STEADY EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND...
SUSPECT THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
IN PARTS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED
TO ADDRESS THIS. THE NEED FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE REEVALUATED THROUGH HIGH TIDE.

TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GAZ117-
     119-139-141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR SCZ048-
     049-051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ330-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST








000
FXUS62 KCAE 180002
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
802 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS AND TRACKS EASTWARD. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP FROM 06Z
ONWARD. RAIN CHANCES WILL ENTER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHOWERS BEGINNING AT
THE TAF SITES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS
BETWEEN 16Z AND THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180002
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
802 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS AND TRACKS EASTWARD. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP FROM 06Z
ONWARD. RAIN CHANCES WILL ENTER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHOWERS BEGINNING AT
THE TAF SITES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS
BETWEEN 16Z AND THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180002
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
802 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS AND TRACKS EASTWARD. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP FROM 06Z
ONWARD. RAIN CHANCES WILL ENTER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHOWERS BEGINNING AT
THE TAF SITES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS
BETWEEN 16Z AND THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180002
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
802 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS AND TRACKS EASTWARD. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP FROM 06Z
ONWARD. RAIN CHANCES WILL ENTER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHOWERS BEGINNING AT
THE TAF SITES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS
BETWEEN 16Z AND THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 172328 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN IS WITH QPF AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR
OVERRUNNING GULF MOISTURE AGAINST A STRONG CLASSICAL CAD WEDGE FROM
A PARENT 1040+MB SFC HIGH SLIDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MODELS
ARE AT LEAST IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVELS CLOSING OFF A
LOW AND ENHANCING THE FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP MAINLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME DECENT DISCREPANCIES
WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE LAST 2
RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN FARTHER NORTH AND QUITE ROBUST ON
QPF...WHILE THE NAM HAS BEEN FARTHER SOUTH AND DRIER...WITH THE
ECMWF A BIT OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE ON QPF AND INCREASING FLOOD THREAT.

FOR POPS AND WEATHER...HAVE TRENDED ONSET OF LIKELY POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA SOONER THAN GUIDANCE AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TYPICALLY
ALLOWS FOR PRECIP BEFORE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HAVE RAMPED UP AFTER
06Z TONIGHT AND SPREAD INTO DEFINITE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL DURING
DAYTIME FRIDAY WITH LIKELY TO CHANCE INTO NORTH GA. WEDGE SHOULD
KEEP ENVIRONMENT STABLE SO LEFT OUT THUNDER MENTION. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS NEAR MEDIUM AS SOME MODELS
ARE INDICATING A DRY SLOT NOSING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE INCREASED IN
PARTS OF NORTH GA WITH ANY BANDING THAT OCCURS IN THE DEFORMATION
ZONE OF THE LOW AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. HAVE TRENDED
LIKELY AND CHANCE POPS TO EASTERN PORTIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE KEEPING SOME CHANCE POPS LINGERING INTO THE
START OF THE LONG TERM.

FOR TEMPS...TRICKY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH INFLUENCE OF WEDGE AND
MOISTURE OVERRUN. HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM MOS AND TRENDED COOLER
THOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS RAW GFS. LOOKING AT MANY AREAS STAYING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR HIGHS...AND NEAR RECORD LOW MAX VALUES FOR
COLUMBUS AND MACON /POSSIBLY ATHENS/.

BAKER

.HYDROLOGY...
HPC GUIDANCE LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE FROM THE VAST
SPECTRUM OF OTHER MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS 2 TO 2.5 INCHES
PROGGED IN A 24-HR PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA AND IS CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF AND SREF...WHILE THE GFS IS ROBUST WITH UP TO 4 INCHES IN
THE SW...AND THE NAM IS ANOMALOUSLY DRY. HAVE GONE WITH A FLOOD
WATCH BASED ON THESE RAISED UPDATED AMOUNTS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A HAMILTON TO FORSYTH TO WARRENTON LINE. ONE COULD ARGUE
THE BETTER THREAT IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WHERE RECENT RAINFALL HAS
BROUGHT AMOUNTS TO 100-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND ABOVE NORMAL 7 DAY
STREAM FLOWS...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER AMOUNTS
FARTHER NORTH WEIGHED INTO THE CURRENT WATCH EXTENT. THIS WILL BE IN
AFFECT FROM 12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY.

BAKER


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF
REGION SAT AND EVEN EARLY SUN. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON H5/SFC
HEIGHT AND WIND FIELDS THOUGH LESS AGREEMENT WITH QPF. UPPER LOW
FCST OVER SOUTHCENTRAL GA 12Z SAT WITH 12Z GFS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
MEDIAN OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND 12Z ECMWF FURTHEST SOUTH. BY 12Z SUN
UPPER LOW PROGGED ONLY TO MOVE 500NM OFF GA COAST. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER LATE SAT AND EVEN THRU EARLY SUN IN ERN COUNTIES. COULD
ALSO SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN THRU SAT AS WELL. WITH THE
CLOUDS AND LOW THICKNESS VALUES...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
SATURDAY WITH A QUICK REBOUND NEXT WEEK.

NEXT SYSTEM STILL LOOKING INTERESTING WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE IN WNWLY
FLOW ALOFT PROGGED TO AFFECT AREA ON TUES. UNUSUAL TO SEE THIS
KIND OF PATTERN IN LATE APRIL. WITH MORE MOISTURE AND STRONGER
LIFT...MIGHT SEE A LINE OF STORMS OR MCS. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S...MLCAPE
VALUES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SNELSON


&&


CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR FRIDAY APRIL 18...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1942     54 1902     64 1969     32 1936
                1927
   KATL      87 2002     50 1983     69 1927     33 1997
                1937
                1896
   KCSG      91 2002     62 1983     69 2006     37 1962
                                                    1956
   KMCN      90 1967     55 1921     66 1922     33 2001
                1955

RECORDS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 19...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      91 1917     51 1984     64 1927     30 1983
   KATL      88 1941     50 1983     66 1927     30 1983
   KCSG      91 2002     59 1983     68 1995     33 1983
                            1953
   KMCN      91 2002     59 1910     66 1927     31 1983
                1976
                1968


&&

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH 06Z WITH MVFR
CEILINGS SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE BY 12-15Z
AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. LOCAL IFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AFTER
18Z...HOWEVER CHANCES NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES YET. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...GENERALLY 6-10KT THROUGH
08Z...INCREASING TO 10-14KT WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT BY 18Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING FOR ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION...HIGH
CONFIDENCE OTHERWISE.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          47  56  46  62 /  20  60  70  30
ATLANTA         50  55  47  62 /  30  60  60  20
BLAIRSVILLE     41  55  44  65 /  10  50  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    47  58  48  66 /  20  50  50  20
COLUMBUS        53  56  49  65 /  90 100  60  30
GAINESVILLE     47  54  47  61 /  20  60  60  30
MACON           52  55  48  63 /  50 100  80  40
ROME            46  60  47  68 /  20  40  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  48  55  46  63 /  50  70  60  30
VIDALIA         53  59  53  67 /  50  90  90  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...
HANCOCK...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...
PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...BAKER









000
FXUS62 KCHS 172231
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
631 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. VERY
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING A DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND
6 KFT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
ISENTROPIC ASSENT SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD NORTH...
BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN ABOVE 50
BM UNTIL LATE. THEREFORE...MOST OF THE ASSENT WILL GO TOWARDS
CLOUD GENERATION VERSUS LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
DOMINATE ALL AREAS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS MAY BE
A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING LOW CLOUDS INTO AREAS NORTH OF
HAMPTON-BEAUFORT LINE BY LATE EVENING. ADJUST SKY COVER TO MATCH
EXPECTED TRENDS. CUT BACK ON GRIDDED POPS JUST A BIT ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE MEASURABLE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT DID MAINTAIN 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THE GEORGIA
COASTAL COUNTIES. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S IMMEDIATE COAST LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POWERFUL UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION ON FRIDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA.
MEANWHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE AREA...
ALBEIT GRADUALLY RETREATING TO THE NNE. AS THE DEEP LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST WHILE MID-LEVELS BECOME SOUTHERLY. THE COLUMN WILL
RAPIDLY MOISTEN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A 100 KT JET SHIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN GULF WILL SPREAD UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE MORNING AND THEN
INTO SOUTHERN SC DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR FRIDAY...HIGHEST TO THE SOUTH.

WE HAVE BEEN LEANING TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM
THOUGH THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE LOW TRACK. THE
STRONGEST QC FORCING LOOKS TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING OUT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY AMPLE FORCING AND A JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCHES FORECAST BY
WPC. MORE DETAILS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY...BECOMING NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT PRECIP WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY DUE
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT CAUSED BY MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE LOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SOME
POSSIBLE LATE DAY CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS QUIET FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. A WEAK TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH BY THE MID WEEK
TIME PERIOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO CROSS BY WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN
LIMITED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FEATURE A WARMING
TREND...REACHING AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. SUSPECT MODEL
GUIDANCE IS TOO QUICK IN BRINGING MVFR CIGS INTO BOTH TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS. OPTED FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION WITH MVFR CIGS REACHING KSAV BY 10Z. KEPT KCHS JUST ABOVE
MVFR FOR NOW. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE SOUTH-NORTH
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN TO REACH KSAV
BY MID AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 20Z WITH RAIN LIKELY NOT REACHING KCHS
UNTIL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT 4SM -RA AT KSAV FOR NOW
WITH NO MENTION OF RAIN AT KCHS JUST YET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF SUB-MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS ARE STILL BLOWING PRETTY GOOD IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE VARIOUS WEATHERFLOW SENSORS IN THE
HARBOR INDICATION WINDS NEAR A SOLID 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HAVE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM TO COVER. NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE MADE.

SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL
WATERS OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS NEAR THE MOUTH OF
CHARLESTON HARBOR COULD SEE 25 KT GUSTS AT TIMES BUT DID NOT THINK
IT WOULD COVER ENOUGH OF THE HARBOR TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE WITHIN 20 NM AND
UP TO 10 FT OFFSHORE CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM.

FAIRLY STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING BEFORE TEMPORARILY DIMINISHING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE WATERS AND THE STRONGEST GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTH
AND WEST. THEN A STRONG NORTHEAST GRADIENT REDEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD TO THE
WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BUT DISCUSS GALE POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RIP CURRENTS...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SWELL ON
FRIDAY BUT WE MAINTAINED SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY WITH 3 FT 10
SEC SWELL. THIS MAINTAINS A MODERATE RISK FOR CHARLESTON AND HIGH
RISK FARTHER SOUTH. AN ENHANCED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST WPC GUIDANCE
SHOWS 2-3 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF 3-4
INCHES. THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS 6 HR VALUES GREATER
THAN 4 INCHES. SINCE WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RECENT TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL EVENTS MOST AREAS SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE COASTAL AREAS DUE TO
THE TIDES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL. THE FRIDAY LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE
COULD BE AT OR NEAR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA IN CHARLESTON
AND/OR SAVANNAH DUE TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS. THUS ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE TIDE COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
ISSUES IN URBAN COASTAL LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WE WILL DISCUSS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

MAIN STEM RIVERS AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES WILL LIKELY SEE RISES
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING DEPENDING ON OBSERVED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GAZ117-
     119-139-141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR SCZ048-
     049-051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     AMZ330.

&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCHS 172109
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
509 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
ORGANIZE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP MOISTURE IN ADVANCE
OF THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE. LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE WHICH MEANS INCREASING
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEFORE LIKELY LEVEL LING OFF
AND/OR EVEN RISING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING EARLIEST. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO MID TO UPPER 50S AT THE COAST...WARMEST
ACROSS GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POWERFUL UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION ON FRIDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA.
MEANWHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE AREA...
ALBEIT GRADUALLY RETREATING TO THE NNE. AS THE DEEP LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST WHILE MID-LEVELS BECOME SOUTHERLY. THE COLUMN WILL
RAPIDLY MOISTEN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A 100 KT JET SHIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN GULF WILL SPREAD UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE MORNING AND THEN
INTO SOUTHERN SC DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR FRIDAY...HIGHEST TO THE SOUTH.

WE HAVE BEEN LEANING TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM
THOUGH THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE LOW TRACK. THE
STRONGEST QC FORCING LOOKS TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING OUT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY AMPLE FORCING AND A JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCHES FORECAST BY
WPC. MORE DETAILS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY...BECOMING NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT PRECIP WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY DUE
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT CAUSED BY MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE LOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SOME
POSSIBLE LATE DAY CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS QUIET FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. A WEAK TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH BY THE MID WEEK
TIME PERIOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO CROSS BY WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN
LIMITED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FEATURE A WARMING
TREND...REACHING AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z...THEN MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR CIGS. SHOWERS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH...LIKELY IMPACTING KSAV INITIALLY. THE RAIN
COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WHICH COULD REDUCE VSBY AS
WELL. NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES ...LIKELY THE STRONGEST
AFTER DAYBREAK FRI AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS MORE AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS ARE STILL BLOWING PRETTY GOOD IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE VARIOUS WEATHERFLOW SENSORS IN THE
HARBOR INDICATION WINDS NEAR A SOLID 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HAVE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM TO COVER. NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE MADE.

SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL
WATERS OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS NEAR THE MOUTH OF
CHARLESTON HARBOR COULD SEE 25 KT GUSTS AT TIMES BUT DID NOT THINK
IT WOULD COVER ENOUGH OF THE HARBOR TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE WITHIN 20 NM AND
UP TO 10 FT OFFSHORE CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM.

FAIRLY STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING BEFORE TEMPORARILY DIMINISHING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE WATERS AND THE STRONGEST GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTH
AND WEST. THEN A STRONG NORTHEAST GRADIENT REDEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD TO THE
WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BUT DISCUSS GALE POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RIP CURRENTS...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SWELL ON
FRIDAY BUT WE MAINTAINED SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY WITH 3 FT 10
SEC SWELL. THIS MAINTAINS A MODERATE RISK FOR CHARLESTON AND HIGH
RISK FARTHER SOUTH. AN ENHANCED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST WPC GUIDANCE
SHOWS 2-3 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF 3-4
INCHES. THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS 6 HR VALUES GREATER
THAN 4 INCHES. SINCE WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RECENT TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL EVENTS MOST AREAS SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE COASTAL AREAS DUE TO
THE TIDES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL. THE FRIDAY LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE
COULD BE AT OR NEAR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA IN CHARLESTON
AND/OR SAVANNAH DUE TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS. THUS ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE TIDE COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
ISSUES IN URBAN COASTAL LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WE WILL DISCUSS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

MAIN STEM RIVERS AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES WILL LIKELY SEE RISES
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING DEPENDING ON OBSERVED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GAZ117-
     119-139-141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR SCZ048-
     049-051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST







000
FXUS62 KCHS 172004
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
404 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
ORGANIZE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP MOISTURE IN ADVANCE
OF THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE. LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE WHICH MEANS INCREASING
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEFORE LIKELY LEVEL LING OFF
AND/OR EVEN RISING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING EARLIEST. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO MID TO UPPER 50S AT THE COAST...WARMEST
ACROSS GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POWERFUL UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION ON FRIDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA.
MEANWHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE AREA...
ALBEIT GRADUALLY RETREATING TO THE NNE. AS THE DEEP LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST WHILE MID-LEVELS BECOME SOUTHERLY. THE COLUMN WILL
RAPIDLY MOISTEN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A 100 KT JET SHIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN GULF WILL SPREAD UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE MORNING AND THEN
INTO SOUTHERN SC DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR FRIDAY...HIGHEST TO THE SOUTH.

WE HAVE BEEN LEANING TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM
THOUGH THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE LOW TRACK. THE
STRONGEST QC FORCING LOOKS TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING OUT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY AMPLE FORCING AND A JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCHES FORECAST BY
WPC. MORE DETAILS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY...BECOMING NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT PRECIP WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY DUE
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT CAUSED BY MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE LOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SOME
POSSIBLE LATE DAY CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS QUIET FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. A WEAK TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH BY THE MID WEEK
TIME PERIOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO CROSS BY WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN
LIMITED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FEATURE A WARMING
TREND...REACHING AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z...THEN MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR CIGS. SHOWERS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH...LIKELY IMPACTING KSAV INITIALLY. THE RAIN
COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WHICH COULD REDUCE VSBY AS
WELL. NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES ...LIKELY THE STRONGEST
AFTER DAYBREAK FRI AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS MORE AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL
WATERS OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS NEAR THE MOUTH OF
CHARLESTON HARBOR COULD SEE 25 KT GUSTS AT TIMES BUT DIDN/T THINK
IT WOULD COVER ENOUGH OF THE HARBOR TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE WITHIN 20 NM AND UP TO 10 FT
OFFSHORE CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM.

FAIRLY STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING BEFORE TEMPORARILY DIMINISHING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE WATERS AND THE STRONGEST GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTH
AND WEST. THEN A STRONG NORTHEAST GRADIENT REDEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD TO THE
WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BUT DISCUSS GALE POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RIP CURRENTS...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SWELL ON
FRIDAY BUT WE MAINTAINED SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY WITH 3 FT 10
SEC SWELL. THIS MAINTAINS A MODERATE RISK FOR CHARLESTON AND HIGH
RISK FARTHER SOUTH. AN ENHANCED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST WPC GUIDANCE
SHOWS 2-3 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
SHOWS 6 HR VALUES GREATER THAN 4 INCHES. SINCE WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
RECENT TORRENTIAL RAINFALL EVENTS MOST AREAS SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE
TO HANDLE THE EXPECTED RAINFALL. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE COASTAL
AREAS DUE TO THE TIDES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL. THE FRIDAY LATE EVENING
HIGH TIDE COULD BE AT OR NEAR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
CHARLESTON AND/OR SAVANNAH DUE TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS. THUS ANY
HEAVY RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE TIDE COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN COASTAL LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WE WILL DISCUSS
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

MAIN STEM RIVERS AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES WILL LIKELY SEE RISES
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING DEPENDING ON OBSERVED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GAZ117-
     119-139-141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR SCZ048-
     051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     AMZ330.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...RJB/JRL
MARINE...RJB/JRL
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KFFC 172001
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
401 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN IS WITH QPF AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR
OVERRUNNING GULF MOISTURE AGAINST A STRONG CLASSICAL CAD WEDGE FROM
A PARENT 1040+MB SFC HIGH SLIDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MODELS
ARE AT LEAST IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVELS CLOSING OFF A
LOW AND ENHANCING THE FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP MAINLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME DECENT DISCREPANCIES
WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE LAST 2
RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN FARTHER NORTH AND QUITE ROBUST ON
QPF...WHILE THE NAM HAS BEEN FARTHER SOUTH AND DRIER...WITH THE
ECMWF A BIT OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE ON QPF AND INCREASING FLOOD THREAT.

FOR POPS AND WEATHER...HAVE TRENDED ONSET OF LIKELY POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA SOONER THAN GUIDANCE AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TYPICALLY
ALLOWS FOR PRECIP BEFORE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HAVE RAMPED UP AFTER
06Z TONIGHT AND SPREAD INTO DEFINITE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL DURING
DAYTIME FRIDAY WITH LIKELY TO CHANCE INTO NORTH GA. WEDGE SHOULD
KEEP ENVIRONMENT STABLE SO LEFT OUT THUNDER MENTION. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS NEAR MEDIUM AS SOME MODELS
ARE INDICATING A DRY SLOT NOSING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE INCREASED IN
PARTS OF NORTH GA WITH ANY BANDING THAT OCCURS IN THE DEFORMATION
ZONE OF THE LOW AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. HAVE TRENDED
LIKELY AND CHANCE POPS TO EASTERN PORTIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE KEEPING SOME CHANCE POPS LINGERING INTO THE
START OF THE LONG TERM.

FOR TEMPS...TRICKY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH INFLUENCE OF WEDGE AND
MOISTURE OVERRUN. HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM MOS AND TRENDED COOLER
THOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS RAW GFS. LOOKING AT MANY AREAS STAYING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR HIGHS...AND NEAR RECORD LOW MAX VALUES FOR
COLUMBUS AND MACON /POSSIBLY ATHENS/.

BAKER

.HYDROLOGY...
HPC GUIDANCE LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE FROM THE VAST
SPECTRUM OF OTHER MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS 2 TO 2.5 INCHES
PROGGED IN A 24-HR PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA AND IS CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF AND SREF...WHILE THE GFS IS ROBUST WITH UP TO 4 INCHES IN
THE SW...AND THE NAM IS ANOMALOUSLY DRY. HAVE GONE WITH A FLOOD
WATCH BASED ON THESE RAISED UPDATED AMOUNTS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A HAMILTON TO FORSYTH TO WARRENTON LINE. ONE COULD ARGUE
THE BETTER THREAT IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WHERE RECENT RAINFALL HAS
BROUGHT AMOUNTS TO 100-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND ABOVE NORMAL 7 DAY
STREAM FLOWS...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER AMOUNTS
FARTHER NORTH WEIGHED INTO THE CURRENT WATCH EXTENT. THIS WILL BE IN
AFFECT FROM 12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY.

BAKER


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF
REGION SAT AND EVEN EARLY SUN. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON H5/SFC
HEIGHT AND WIND FIELDS THOUGH LESS AGREEMENT WITH QPF. UPPER LOW
FCST OVER SOUTHCENTRAL GA 12Z SAT WITH 12Z GFS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
MEDIAN OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND 12Z ECMWF FURTHEST SOUTH. BY 12Z SUN
UPPER LOW PROGGED ONLY TO MOVE 500NM OFF GA COAST. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER LATE SAT AND EVEN THRU EARLY SUN IN ERN COUNTIES. COULD
ALSO SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN THRU SAT AS WELL. WITH THE
CLOUDS AND LOW THICKNESS VALUES...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
SATURDAY WITH A QUICK REBOUND NEXT WEEK.

NEXT SYSTEM STILL LOOKING INTERESTING WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE IN WNWLY
FLOW ALOFT PROGGED TO AFFECT AREA ON TUES. UNUSUAL TO SEE THIS
KIND OF PATTERN IN LATE APRIL. WITH MORE MOISTURE AND STRONGER
LIFT...MIGHT SEE A LINE OF STORMS OR MCS. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S...MLCAPE
VALUES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SNELSON


&&


CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR FRIDAY APRIL 18...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1942     54 1902     64 1969     32 1936
                1927
   KATL      87 2002     50 1983     69 1927     33 1997
                1937
                1896
   KCSG      91 2002     62 1983     69 2006     37 1962
                                                    1956
   KMCN      90 1967     55 1921     66 1922     33 2001
                1955

RECORDS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 19...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      91 1917     51 1984     64 1927     30 1983
   KATL      88 1941     50 1983     66 1927     30 1983
   KCSG      91 2002     59 1983     68 1995     33 1983
                            1953
   KMCN      91 2002     59 1910     66 1927     31 1983
                1976
                1968


&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SOME LOW END VFR CIGS WORKING FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD STAY IN 3-4 KFT RANGE...GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR AFTER
ABOUT 10-14Z FRIDAY AS PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WITH APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERN SITES LOOK TO
HAVE A BIT LOWER CIGS AND POSSIBLY IFR FOR KCSG AFTER 14Z FRIDAY
WITH QUICKER START TO SHRA...OTHERWISE EXPECT SHRA AFTER ABOUT 15Z
FOR NORTHERN SITES NEAR KATL. WINDS MAINLY EAST 10-12 KTS WITH
GUSTS 16-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST AT 7-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOME LOW END GUSTS AGAIN FOR FRIDAY.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR VSBYS WITH PRECIP BUT WILL KEEP VFR FOR
NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          47  56  46  62 /  20  60  70  30
ATLANTA         50  55  47  62 /  30  60  60  20
BLAIRSVILLE     41  55  44  65 /  10  50  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    47  58  48  66 /  20  50  50  20
COLUMBUS        53  56  49  65 /  90 100  60  30
GAINESVILLE     47  54  47  61 /  20  60  60  30
MACON           52  55  48  63 /  50 100  80  40
ROME            46  60  47  68 /  20  40  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  48  55  46  63 /  50  70  60  30
VIDALIA         53  59  53  67 /  50  90  90  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...
HANCOCK...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...
PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KCAE 171919
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
319 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 171919
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
319 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 171803
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
203 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL BE SLOWLY WEAKENING WITH TIME. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ON
FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY
MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA BUT REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...WHICH SHOULD BE THE TREND THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER
IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS COULD TOUCH 70. IT
WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AT TIMES WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH...MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING GULF COAST SYSTEM. INCREASING DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO OUR SW WILL SPREAD RAINS INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND SW GEORGIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE RISK FOR WET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS AND LINGERING NE WINDS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILDER OVERNIGHT...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NW
TIER TO LOWER/MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
AN ACTIVE AND VERY WET SCENARIO FOR THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN
THE NAM...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE SUITE OF FORECAST MODELS HAVE
CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION THAT FAVORS A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENT STRETCHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND UP THE
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE. ON FRIDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTENSIFY INTO
A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. AN IMPRESSIVE DEGREE OF FORCING
WILL TAKE SHAPE WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET
DYNAMICS...STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND DEEP MOIST
CONVERGENCE ALL ALIGNING ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
FURTHERMORE...PWATS WILL SURGE TO IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES WHICH
WOULD EXCEED THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID APRIL. PRECIPITATION WILL
INVADE FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY...BECOMING MOST WIDESPREAD FRIDAY
NIGHT. POPS HAVE BEEN ALTERED DRAMATICALLY AND NOW FEATURE NEAR 100
PERCENT CHANCES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
STRONG FORCING AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. BY
SATURDAY MORNING...SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 OR MORE INCHES. POPS THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE FORCING
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW DRIFTS OFF THE
FLORIDA COASTLINE. OF LESSER IMPACT...THE MODELS INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A SLOT OF STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NEGATIVE
SHOWALTER INDICES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT FOR NOW THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE
OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THUNDER MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO INLAND AREAS. THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE DAY 2
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FROM WPC...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED SO NOTHING WILL BE ADDED
TO THE HWO. THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED WITH FUTURE
FORECAST PACKAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SO FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE KEPT IN THE LOW
60S...AND SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE AS THE COLUMN DRIES OUT AND THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. IN FACT LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE DRY WITH JUST LOW END CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WE MAY
HAVE TO DEAL WITH CONSIDERABLE WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY
NEGATIVELY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST FEATURES LOW
70S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS QUIET FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. A WEAK TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH BY THE MID WEEK
TIME PERIOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO CROSS BY WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN
LIMITED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FEATURE A WARMING
TREND...REACHING AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z...THEN MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR CIGS. SHOWERS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH...LIKELY IMPACTING KSAV INITIALLY. THE RAIN
COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WHICH COULD REDUCE VSBY AS
WELL. NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES ...LIKELY THE STRONGEST
AFTER DAYBREAK FRI AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS MORE AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRES WEDGED DOWN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES BY TONIGHT OVER
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS SUGGEST THE ONGOING SURGE IN THE
20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT MAY EBB ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING TO MORE OF A 15-20 KT FLOW
BUT THEN SURGE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY MORNING. OVER GEORGIA
WATERS...NOT MUCH OF A LULL WITH THE STEADY NE FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR PINCHING TO PERSIST RIGHT ALONG COASTAL
BEAUFORT AND CHATHAM COUNTIES GIVEN THE ALIGNMENT OF THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE GRADIENTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE WITHIN
20 NM AND UP TO 10 FT OFFSHORE CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM INTO
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASES FRIDAY
NIGHT ONWARD AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS FLORIDA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
FLUCTUATED TO FAVORING A SURFACE LOW TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
TO THE LOCAL WATERS. IF THIS OCCURS...THE GRADIENT MAY ACTUALLY
RELAX AND RESULT IN WEAKER FLOW. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW REMAINS
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE GRADIENT MAY ACTUALLY BE ENHANCED AND
RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE EVENT AND HIGH SURF FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO SAY WHICH
SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN LEFT INTACT...AND SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
UPDATES WILL HAVE TO READDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE HAZARDS.
THERE IS BETTER CERTAINTY FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY WEEK TIME
PERIOD WHEN THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ENHANCED GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. STRONG WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS APPEAR LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...A BIT OF AN UNDERLYING LONGER PERIOD SWELL NOTED FROM
FRYING PAN SHOALS TO GRAYS REEF OVERNIGHT WAS ENOUGH TO TIP OUR
MODERATE RISK TO A HIGH RISK FROM BEAUFORT COUNTY SOUTHWARD. A
MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR CHARLESTON BEACHES
TODAY WITH AN ENHANCED LONGSHORE CURRENT. AN ENHANCED RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT IS
INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY...AND TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST...WITH SOME LOCALLY
GREATER TOTALS POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH...AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ALSO...MAIN STEM
RIVERS AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES WILL LIKELY SEE RISES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING DEPENDING ON OBSERVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048-051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...BSH/RJB
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KFFC 171756
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
156 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

.UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST TODAY INCLUDING BUMPING UP
DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BASED
ON MORNING TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST LARGELY ON TRACK AND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION CONTINUES.

BAKER

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT DROPPED AS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
EXPECTED DUE TO SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THAT PREVENTED RADIATIONAL
COOLING. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR FAR NORTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL DROP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. PATCHY AREAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...COULD STILL SEE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS WAS NOSING INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN A WEDGE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY...TRACKING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO
SOUTH GEORGIA. HAVE QUICKLY INCREASING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...SPREADING CHANCE TO CATEGORICAL RAIN NORTHWARD AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...KEEPING BEST CHANCES IN THE FAR SOUTHERN TIERS OF COUNTIES.
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE HAD SOME DIFFICULTY AGREEING WITH THE NORTHERN
EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF THE PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA...AND HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE AREA WITHIN THE STABLE AIRMASS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...SO HAVE NO MENTION OF THUNDER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON TO
LOUISVILLE. AT THIS TIME...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A
CONCERN...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH. A WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY IF LATER MODEL RUNS ADVERTISE A MORE NORTH POSITION OF THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS.

DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE WEDGE...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...AND
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES SEEM A LITTLE TOO
FAR FETCHED...KEEPING HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. ON THE
OTHER HAND...MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO WARM FOR THE
SITUATION/ENVIRONMENT. HAVE TRIED TO FIND THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN
THE TWO...TRENDING A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE RAW MODELS TO FINALLY LAND
ON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST GEORGIA...ALONG THE PERIPHERY OR OUTSIDE OF
THE WEDGE AND EXPECTING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. IF THESE TEMPERATURES PAN
OUT...WOULD SEE A RECORD MINIMUM HIGH AT CSG...AND WOULD COME WITHIN
TWO DEGREES FOR AHN AND MCN. HAVE ADDED RECORD INFORMATION IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR REFERENCE.

31

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

LONG TERM PORTION BEGINS WITH LOW PRESSURE TRANSITIONING FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE GFS SOME 6 HRS FASTER
WITH THIS TRANSITION THAN THE ECMWF. OVERALL...AGREEMENT IS BETTER
AMONG THE MODELS INITIALLY THAN LAST NIGHTS RUNS AND NOW ALL
INDICATE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LONG TERM MODELS ALL HAVE A CLOSED
UPPER LOW NOW BUT DIFFERENCES NOW EXIST AS TO HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS
FEATURE MIGHT BE. TRENDS IN MODELS ARE THAT PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW
THOUGH WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF LOW PROVIDING
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS AT A MINIMUM AND CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY AT WORST. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NW TO SE AND LET DAY SHIFT SEE ANOTHER
MODEL RUN BEFORE DECLARING SATURDAY A TOTAL WASHOUT.

ONCE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT...MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO ZONAL ALOFT MAKING TIMING OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES
CHALLENGING. LOOKS LIKE SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MOST IMPRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE BEST POPS OVER NW ZONES AND
THEN TRANSITIONING LOWER OVER SE PORTION AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
LOWER. INSTABILITY STILL INDICATED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH CAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. SHEAR VALUES NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AS PREVIOUS RUNS BUT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH THAT CONDITIONS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

DEESE

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 04-18...FRIDAY

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1942     54 1902     64 1969     32 1936
                1927
   KATL      87 2002     50 1983     69 1927     33 1997
                1937
                1896
   KCSG      91 2002     62 1983     69 2006     37 1962
                                                    1956
   KMCN      90 1967     55 1921     66 1922     33 2001
                1955

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SOME LOW END VFR CIGS WORKING FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD STAY IN 3-4 KFT RANGE...GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR AFTER
ABOUT 10-14Z FRIDAY AS PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WITH APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERN SITES LOOK TO
HAVE A BIT LOWER CIGS AND POSSIBLY IFR FOR KCSG AFTER 14Z FRIDAY
WITH QUICKER START TO SHRA...OTHERWISE EXPECT SHRA AFTER ABOUT 15Z
FOR NORTHERN SITES NEAR KATL. WINDS MAINLY EAST 10-12 KTS WITH
GUSTS 16-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST AT 7-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOME LOW END GUSTS AGAIN FOR FRIDAY.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR VSBYS WITH PRECIP BUT WILL KEEP VFR FOR
NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  46  57  45 /   5  20  60  70
ATLANTA         62  48  57  46 /   5  30  60  60
BLAIRSVILLE     62  40  55  44 /   5  10  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    67  46  60  46 /   5  20  50  50
COLUMBUS        67  51  57  48 /   5  90 100  60
GAINESVILLE     62  46  54  46 /   5  20  60  70
MACON           66  50  56  47 /   5  50 100  80
ROME            68  45  63  45 /   5  20  40  40
PEACHTREE CITY  68  47  58  44 /   5  50  70  60
VIDALIA         69  53  61  53 /   5  50  90  90

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31/BAKER
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KCAE 171754
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.


CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE ARE THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY MORNING SO I
WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH UNTIL THAT TIME.
STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH NORTH AND WEST
PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST. THE GRADIENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN THE TRACK WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME EXPECT IT TO
CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY
DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY
PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 171754
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.


CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE ARE THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY MORNING SO I
WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH UNTIL THAT TIME.
STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH NORTH AND WEST
PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST. THE GRADIENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN THE TRACK WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME EXPECT IT TO
CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY
DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY
PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 171653 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1253 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 171653 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1253 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 171653 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1253 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 171653 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1253 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 171651
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1251 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 171651
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1251 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCHS 171457
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1057 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL BE SLOWLY WEAKENING WITH TIME. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ON
FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY
MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS. ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
LOCATED. HIGHS WILL BE A WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY MID TO UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER
IMMEDIATE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL HANG ON GIVEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES. SKIES WILL
AVERAGE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING GULF COAST SYSTEM. INCREASING DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO OUR SW WILL SPREAD RAINS INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND SW GEORGIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE RISK FOR WET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS AND LINGERING NE WINDS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILDER OVERNIGHT...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NW
TIER TO LOWER/MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
AN ACTIVE AND VERY WET SCENARIO FOR THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN
THE NAM...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE SUITE OF FORECAST MODELS HAVE
CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION THAT FAVORS A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENT STRETCHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND UP THE
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE. ON FRIDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTENSIFY INTO
A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. AN IMPRESSIVE DEGREE OF FORCING
WILL TAKE SHAPE WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET
DYNAMICS...STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND DEEP MOIST
CONVERGENCE ALL ALIGNING ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
FURTHERMORE...PWATS WILL SURGE TO IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES WHICH
WOULD EXCEED THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID APRIL. PRECIPITATION WILL
INVADE FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY...BECOMING MOST WIDESPREAD FRIDAY
NIGHT. POPS HAVE BEEN ALTERED DRAMATICALLY AND NOW FEATURE NEAR 100
PERCENT CHANCES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
STRONG FORCING AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. BY
SATURDAY MORNING...SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 OR MORE INCHES. POPS THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE FORCING
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW DRIFTS OFF THE
FLORIDA COASTLINE. OF LESSER IMPACT...THE MODELS INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A SLOT OF STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NEGATIVE
SHOWALTER INDICES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT FOR NOW THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE
OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THUNDER MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO INLAND AREAS. THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE DAY 2
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FROM WPC...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED SO NOTHING WILL BE ADDED
TO THE HWO. THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED WITH FUTURE
FORECAST PACKAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SO FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE KEPT IN THE LOW
60S...AND SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE AS THE COLUMN DRIES OUT AND THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. IN FACT LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE DRY WITH JUST LOW END CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WE MAY
HAVE TO DEAL WITH CONSIDERABLE WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY
NEGATIVELY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST FEATURES LOW
70S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS QUIET FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. A WEAK TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH BY THE MID WEEK
TIME PERIOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO CROSS BY WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN
LIMITED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FEATURE A WARMING
TREND...REACHING AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST TODAY. STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT BUT A BIT TOO EARLY TO
COMMIT TO ANY CIGS TO MVFR AT THIS STAGE. NE SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY AT TIMES AGAIN TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT.
ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT LIKELY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

KSAV...BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING THEN MAINLY
VFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY BUT WILL ALLOW LATER CYCLES A CHANCE TO
PIN DOWN MVFR TIMING. NE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
AGAIN TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. ELEVATED
SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT LIKELY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRES WEDGED DOWN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES BY TONIGHT OVER
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS SUGGEST THE ONGOING SURGE IN THE
20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT MAY EBB ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING TO MORE OF A 15-20 KT FLOW
BUT THEN SURGE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY MORNING. OVER GEORGIA
WATERS...NOT MUCH OF A LULL WITH THE STEADY NE FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR PINCHING TO PERSIST RIGHT ALONG COASTAL
BEAUFORT AND CHATHAM COUNTIES GIVEN THE ALIGNMENT OF THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE GRADIENTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE WITHIN
20 NM AND UP TO 10 FT OFFSHORE CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM INTO
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASES FRIDAY
NIGHT ONWARD AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS FLORIDA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
FLUCTUATED TO FAVORING A SURFACE LOW TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
TO THE LOCAL WATERS. IF THIS OCCURS...THE GRADIENT MAY ACTUALLY
RELAX AND RESULT IN WEAKER FLOW. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW REMAINS
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE GRADIENT MAY ACTUALLY BE ENHANCED AND
RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE EVENT AND HIGH SURF FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO SAY WHICH
SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN LEFT INTACT...AND SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
UPDATES WILL HAVE TO READDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE HAZARDS.
THERE IS BETTER CERTAINTY FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY WEEK TIME
PERIOD WHEN THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ENHANCED GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. STRONG WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS APPEAR LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...A BIT OF AN UNDERLYING LONGER PERIOD SWELL NOTED FROM
FRYING PAN SHOALS TO GRAYS REEF OVERNIGHT WAS ENOUGH TO TIP OUR
MODERATE RISK TO A HIGH RISK FROM BEAUFORT COUNTY SOUTHWARD. A
MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR CHARLESTON BEACHES
TODAY WITH AN ENHANCED LONGSHORE CURRENT. AN ENHANCED RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT IS
INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY...AND TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST...WITH SOME LOCALLY
GREATER TOTALS POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH...AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ALSO...MAIN STEM
RIVERS AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES WILL LIKELY SEE RISES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING DEPENDING ON OBSERVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048-051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...RJB/BSH
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KFFC 171438
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1038 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST TODAY INCLUDING BUMPING UP
DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BASED
ON MORNING TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST LARGELY ON TRACK AND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION CONTINUES.

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT DROPPED AS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
EXPECTED DUE TO SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THAT PREVENTED RADIATIONAL
COOLING. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR FAR NORTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL DROP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. PATCHY AREAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...COULD STILL SEE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS WAS NOSING INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN A WEDGE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY...TRACKING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO
SOUTH GEORGIA. HAVE QUICKLY INCREASING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...SPREADING CHANCE TO CATEGORICAL RAIN NORTHWARD AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...KEEPING BEST CHANCES IN THE FAR SOUTHERN TIERS OF COUNTIES.
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE HAD SOME DIFFICULTY AGREEING WITH THE NORTHERN
EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF THE PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA...AND HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE AREA WITHIN THE STABLE AIRMASS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...SO HAVE NO MENTION OF THUNDER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON TO
LOUISVILLE. AT THIS TIME...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A
CONCERN...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH. A WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY IF LATER MODEL RUNS ADVERTISE A MORE NORTH POSITION OF THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS.

DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE WEDGE...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...AND
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES SEEM A LITTLE TOO
FAR FETCHED...KEEPING HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. ON THE
OTHER HAND...MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO WARM FOR THE
SITUATION/ENVIRONMENT. HAVE TRIED TO FIND THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN
THE TWO...TRENDING A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE RAW MODELS TO FINALLY LAND
ON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST GEORGIA...ALONG THE PERIPHERY OR OUTSIDE OF
THE WEDGE AND EXPECTING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. IF THESE TEMPERATURES PAN
OUT...WOULD SEE A RECORD MINIMUM HIGH AT CSG...AND WOULD COME WITHIN
TWO DEGREES FOR AHN AND MCN. HAVE ADDED RECORD INFORMATION IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR REFERENCE.

31

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

LONG TERM PORTION BEGINS WITH LOW PRESSURE TRANSITIONING FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE GFS SOME 6 HRS FASTER
WITH THIS TRANSITION THAN THE ECMWF. OVERALL...AGREEMENT IS BETTER
AMONG THE MODELS INITIALLY THAN LAST NIGHTS RUNS AND NOW ALL
INDICATE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LONG TERM MODELS ALL HAVE A CLOSED
UPPER LOW NOW BUT DIFFERENCES NOW EXIST AS TO HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS
FEATURE MIGHT BE. TRENDS IN MODELS ARE THAT PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW
THOUGH WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF LOW PROVIDING
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS AT A MINIMUM AND CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY AT WORST. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NW TO SE AND LET DAY SHIFT SEE ANOTHER
MODEL RUN BEFORE DECLARING SATURDAY A TOTAL WASHOUT.

ONCE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT...MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO ZONAL ALOFT MAKING TIMING OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES
CHALLENGING. LOOKS LIKE SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MOST IMPRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE BEST POPS OVER NW ZONES AND
THEN TRANSITIONING LOWER OVER SE PORTION AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
LOWER. INSTABILITY STILL INDICATED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH CAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. SHEAR VALUES NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AS PREVIOUS RUNS BUT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH THAT CONDITIONS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

DEESE

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 04-18...FRIDAY

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1942     54 1902     64 1969     32 1936
                1927
   KATL      87 2002     50 1983     69 1927     33 1997
                1937
                1896
   KCSG      91 2002     62 1983     69 2006     37 1962
                                                    1956
   KMCN      90 1967     55 1921     66 1922     33 2001
                1955

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-13KT WITH GUSTS TO
15-20KT BY LATE MORNING. AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
TONIGHT...RAIN WILL BEGIN 9-12Z NEAR CSG...AND AROUND 15Z TO THE
MCN AND ATL AREAS. MVFR TO HIGH IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT
CSG...MCN...AND AHN AFTER 09Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON CIGS AND
WEATHER AFTER 10Z FRIDAY.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  46  57  45 /   5  10  60  20
ATLANTA         62  48  57  46 /   5  10  60  20
BLAIRSVILLE     62  40  55  44 /   5   5  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    67  46  60  46 /   5  10  40  10
COLUMBUS        67  51  57  48 /   5  40 100  30
GAINESVILLE     62  46  54  46 /   5   5  40  20
MACON           66  50  56  47 /   5  30  80  60
ROME            68  45  63  45 /   5   5  30  10
PEACHTREE CITY  68  47  58  44 /   5  20  60  20
VIDALIA         69  53  61  53 /   5  30  90  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31/BAKER
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31






000
FXUS62 KCHS 171138
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
738 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS FLORIDA AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE
TO WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS ONLY A NARROW LAYER OF ATLC MOISTURE IS
NOTED UNDER A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN 4-7 KFT. BONE DRY
AIR NOTED IN THE MID LAYERS AND PWATS BELOW .7 INCHES. ALONG THE
GEORGIA BARRIER ISLANDS CLOSE TO THE ALTAMAHA...CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A SPRINKLE BUT MEASURABLE PCPN CHANCES LOOK MINUTE. HIGHS
TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...STILL WELL BELOW CLIMO. THE
BREEZES NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AND DEEPER AFTERNOON MIXING PROFILES. SKY COVERAGE IS
QUITE CHALLENGING TODAY BUT GEORGIA ZONES APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO
SEE PERIODS OF CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES.

TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING GULF COAST SYSTEM. INCREASING DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO OUR SW WILL SPREAD RAINS INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND SW GEORGIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE RISK FOR WET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS AND LINGERING NE WINDS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILDER OVERNIGHT...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NW
TIER TO LOWER/MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
AN ACTIVE AND VERY WET SCENARIO FOR THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN
THE NAM...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE SUITE OF FORECAST MODELS HAVE
CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION THAT FAVORS A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENT STRETCHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND UP THE
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE. ON FRIDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTENSIFY INTO
A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. AN IMPRESSIVE DEGREE OF FORCING
WILL TAKE SHAPE WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET
DYNAMICS...STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND DEEP MOIST
CONVERGENCE ALL ALIGNING ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
FURTHERMORE...PWATS WILL SURGE TO IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES WHICH
WOULD EXCEED THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID APRIL. PRECIPITATION WILL
INVADE FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY...BECOMING MOST WIDESPREAD FRIDAY
NIGHT. POPS HAVE BEEN ALTERED DRAMATICALLY AND NOW FEATURE NEAR 100
PERCENT CHANCES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
STRONG FORCING AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. BY
SATURDAY MORNING...SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 OR MORE INCHES. POPS THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE FORCING
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW DRIFTS OFF THE
FLORIDA COASTLINE. OF LESSER IMPACT...THE MODELS INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A SLOT OF STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NEGATIVE
SHOWALTER INDICES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT FOR NOW THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE
OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THUNDER MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO INLAND AREAS. THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE DAY 2
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FROM WPC...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED SO NOTHING WILL BE ADDED
TO THE HWO. THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED WITH FUTURE
FORECAST PACKAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SO FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE KEPT IN THE LOW
60S...AND SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE AS THE COLUMN DRIES OUT AND THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. IN FACT LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE DRY WITH JUST LOW END CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WE MAY
HAVE TO DEAL WITH CONSIDERABLE WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY
NEGATIVELY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST FEATURES LOW
70S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS QUIET FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. A WEAK TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH BY THE MID WEEK
TIME PERIOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO CROSS BY WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN
LIMITED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FEATURE A WARMING
TREND...REACHING AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST TODAY. STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT BUT A BIT TOO EARLY TO
COMMIT TO ANY CIGS TO MVFR AT THIS STAGE. NE SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY AT TIMES AGAIN TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 20 KT.
ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT LIKELY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

KSAV...BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING THEN MAINLY
VFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY BUT WILL ALLOW LATER CYCLES A CHANCE TO
PIN DOWN MVFR TIMING. NE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
AGAIN TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. ELEVATED
SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT LIKELY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRES WEDGED DOWN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES BY TONIGHT OVER
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS SUGGEST THE ONGOING SURGE IN THE
20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT MAY EBB ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING TO MORE OF A 15-20 KT FLOW
BUT THEN SURGE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY MORNING. OVER GEORGIA
WATERS...NOT MUCH OF A LULL WITH THE STEADY NE FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR PINCHING TO PERSIST RIGHT ALONG COASTAL
BEAUFORT AND CHATHAM COUNTIES GIVEN THE ALIGNMENT OF THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE GRADIENTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE WITHIN
20 NM AND UP TO 10 FT OFFSHORE CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM INTO
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASES FRIDAY
NIGHT ONWARD AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS FLORIDA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
FLUCTUATED TO FAVORING A SURFACE LOW TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
TO THE LOCAL WATERS. IF THIS OCCURS...THE GRADIENT MAY ACTUALLY
RELAX AND RESULT IN WEAKER FLOW. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW REMAINS
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE GRADIENT MAY ACTUALLY BE ENHANCED AND
RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE EVENT AND HIGH SURF FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO SAY WHICH
SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN LEFT INTACT...AND SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
UPDATES WILL HAVE TO READDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE HAZARDS.
THERE IS BETTER CERTAINTY FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY WEEK TIME
PERIOD WHEN THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ENHANCED GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. STRONG WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS APPEAR LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...A BIT OF AN UNDERLYING LONGER PERIOD SWELL NOTED FROM
FRYING PAN SHOALS TO GRAYS REEF OVERNIGHT WAS ENOUGH TO TIP OUR
MODERATE RISK TO A HIGH RISK FROM BEAUFORT COUNTY SOUTHWARD. A
MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR CHARLESTON BEACHES
TODAY WITH AN ENHANCED LONGSHORE CURRENT. AN ENHANCED RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT IS
INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY...AND TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST...WITH SOME LOCALLY
GREATER TOTALS POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH...AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ALSO...MAIN STEM
RIVERS AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES WILL LIKELY SEE RISES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING DEPENDING ON OBSERVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KFFC 171130
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT DROPPED AS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
EXPECTED DUE TO SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THAT PREVENTED RADIATIONAL
COOLING. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR FAR NORTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL DROP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. PATCHY AREAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...COULD STILL SEE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS WAS NOSING INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN A WEDGE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY...TRACKING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO
SOUTH GEORGIA. HAVE QUICKLY INCREASING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...SPREADING CHANCE TO CATEGORICAL RAIN NORTHWARD AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...KEEPING BEST CHANCES IN THE FAR SOUTHERN TIERS OF COUNTIES.
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE HAD SOME DIFFICULTY AGREEING WITH THE NORTHERN
EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF THE PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA...AND HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE AREA WITHIN THE STABLE AIRMASS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...SO HAVE NO MENTION OF THUNDER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON TO
LOUISVILLE. AT THIS TIME...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A
CONCERN...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH. A WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY IF LATER MODEL RUNS ADVERTISE A MORE NORTH POSITION OF THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS.

DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE WEDGE...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...AND
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES SEEM A LITTLE TOO
FAR FETCHED...KEEPING HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. ON THE
OTHER HAND...MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO WARM FOR THE
SITUATION/ENVIRONMENT. HAVE TRIED TO FIND THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN
THE TWO...TRENDING A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE RAW MODELS TO FINALLY LAND
ON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST GEORGIA...ALONG THE PERIPHERY OR OUTSIDE OF
THE WEDGE AND EXPECTING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. IF THESE TEMPERATURES PAN
OUT...WOULD SEE A RECORD MINIMUM HIGH AT CSG...AND WOULD COME WITHIN
TWO DEGREES FOR AHN AND MCN. HAVE ADDED RECORD INFORMATION IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR REFERENCE.

31

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

LONG TERM PORTION BEGINS WITH LOW PRESSURE TRANSITIONING FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE GFS SOME 6 HRS FASTER
WITH THIS TRANSITION THAN THE ECMWF. OVERALL...AGREEMENT IS BETTER
AMONG THE MODELS INITIALLY THAN LAST NIGHTS RUNS AND NOW ALL
INDICATE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LONG TERM MODELS ALL HAVE A CLOSED
UPPER LOW NOW BUT DIFFERENCES NOW EXIST AS TO HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS
FEATURE MIGHT BE. TRENDS IN MODELS ARE THAT PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW
THOUGH WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF LOW PROVIDING
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS AT A MINIMUM AND CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY AT WORST. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NW TO SE AND LET DAY SHIFT SEE ANOTHER
MODEL RUN BEFORE DECLARING SATURDAY A TOTAL WASHOUT.

ONCE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT...MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO ZONAL ALOFT MAKING TIMING OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES
CHALLENGING. LOOKS LIKE SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MOST IMPRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE BEST POPS OVER NW ZONES AND
THEN TRANSITIONING LOWER OVER SE PORTION AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
LOWER. INSTABILITY STILL INDICATED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH CAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. SHEAR VALUES NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AS PREVIOUS RUNS BUT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH THAT CONDITIONS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

DEESE

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 04-18...FRIDAY

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1942     54 1902     64 1969     32 1936
                1927
   KATL      87 2002     50 1983     69 1927     33 1997
                1937
                1896
   KCSG      91 2002     62 1983     69 2006     37 1962
                                                    1956
   KMCN      90 1967     55 1921     66 1922     33 2001
                1955

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-13KT WITH GUSTS TO
15-20KT BY LATE MORNING. AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
TONIGHT...RAIN WILL BEGIN 9-12Z NEAR CSG...AND AROUND 15Z TO THE
MCN AND ATL AREAS. MVFR TO HIGH IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT
CSG...MCN...AND AHN AFTER 09Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON CIGS AND
WEATHER AFTER 10Z FRIDAY.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  46  57  45 /   5  10  60  20
ATLANTA         62  48  57  46 /   5  10  60  20
BLAIRSVILLE     62  40  55  44 /   5   5  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    65  46  60  46 /   5  10  40  10
COLUMBUS        67  51  57  48 /   5  40 100  30
GAINESVILLE     62  46  54  46 /   5   5  40  20
MACON           66  50  56  47 /   5  30  80  60
ROME            66  45  63  45 /   5   5  30  10
PEACHTREE CITY  66  47  58  44 /   5  20  60  20
VIDALIA         69  53  61  53 /   5  30  90  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: FANNIN...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31






000
FXUS62 KCAE 171033
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
633 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY RESULT IN
SOME STRATOCUMULUS. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE A PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH A GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. SCT TO BKN
STRATOCU WITH VFR BASES EXPECTED TODAY. ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH LOWER BASES LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-020-
     021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 171019
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
619 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY RESULT IN
SOME STRATOCUMULUS. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE A PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH A GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE SOME CLOUDINESS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL DISCREPANCY
REDUCES CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT AND TIMING. WILL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-020-
     021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 171019
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
619 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY RESULT IN
SOME STRATOCUMULUS. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE A PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH A GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE SOME CLOUDINESS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL DISCREPANCY
REDUCES CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT AND TIMING. WILL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-020-
     021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 170908
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
508 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT DROPPED AS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
EXPECTED DUE TO SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THAT PREVENTED RADIATIONAL
COOLING. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR FAR NORTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL DROP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. PATCHY AREAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...COULD STILL SEE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS WAS NOSING INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN A WEDGE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY...TRACKING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO
SOUTH GEORGIA. HAVE QUICKLY INCREASING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...SPREADING CHANCE TO CATEGORICAL RAIN NORTHWARD AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...KEEPING BEST CHANCES IN THE FAR SOUTHERN TIERS OF COUNTIES.
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE HAD SOME DIFFICULTY AGREEING WITH THE NORTHERN
EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF THE PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA...AND HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE AREA WITHIN THE STABLE AIRMASS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...SO HAVE NO MENTION OF THUNDER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON TO
LOUISVILLE. AT THIS TIME...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A
CONCERN...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH. A WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY IF LATER MODEL RUNS ADVERTISE A MORE NORTH POSITION OF THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS.

DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE WEDGE...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...AND
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES SEEM A LITTLE TOO
FAR FETCHED...KEEPING HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. ON THE
OTHER HAND...MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO WARM FOR THE
SITUATION/ENVIRONMENT. HAVE TRIED TO FIND THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN
THE TWO...TRENDING A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE RAW MODELS TO FINALLY LAND
ON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST GEORGIA...ALONG THE PERIPHERY OR OUTSIDE OF
THE WEDGE AND EXPECTING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. IF THESE TEMPERATURES PAN
OUT...WOULD SEE A RECORD MINIMUM HIGH AT CSG...AND WOULD COME WITHIN
TWO DEGREES FOR AHN AND MCN. HAVE ADDED RECORD INFORMATION IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR REFERENCE.

31


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

LONG TERM PORTION BEGINS WITH LOW PRESSURE TRANSITIONING FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE GFS SOME 6 HRS FASTER
WITH THIS TRANSITION THAN THE ECMWF. OVERALL...AGREEMENT IS BETTER
AMONG THE MODELS INITIALLY THAN LAST NIGHTS RUNS AND NOW ALL
INDICATE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LONG TERM MODELS ALL HAVE A CLOSED
UPPER LOW NOW BUT DIFFERENCES NOW EXIST AS TO HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS
FEATURE MIGHT BE. TRENDS IN MODELS ARE THAT PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW
THOUGH WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF LOW PROVIDING
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS AT A MINIMUM AND CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY AT WORST. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NW TO SE AND LET DAY SHIFT SEE ANOTHER
MODEL RUN BEFORE DECLARING SATURDAY A TOTAL WASHOUT.

ONCE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT...MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO ZONAL ALOFT MAKING TIMING OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES
CHALLENGING. LOOKS LIKE SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MOST IMPRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE BEST POPS OVER NW ZONES AND
THEN TRANSITIONING LOWER OVER SE PORTION AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
LOWER. INSTABILITY STILL INDICATED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH CAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. SHEAR VALUES NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AS PREVIOUS RUNS BUT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH THAT CONDITIONS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

DEESE


&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 04-18...FRIDAY

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1942     54 1902     64 1969     32 1936
                1927
   KATL      87 2002     50 1983     69 1927     33 1997
                1937
                1896
   KCSG      91 2002     62 1983     69 2006     37 1962
                                                    1956
   KMCN      90 1967     55 1921     66 1922     33 2001
                1955

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA 09-16Z. EXPECT 3-6KFT
CIGS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY 18-20Z.
EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-13KT AFTER 12Z WITH GUSTS 15-25KT
BEGINNING MID MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  46  57  45 /   5  10  60  20
ATLANTA         62  48  57  46 /   5  10  60  20
BLAIRSVILLE     62  40  55  44 /   5   5  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    65  46  60  46 /   5  10  40  10
COLUMBUS        67  51  57  48 /   5  40 100  30
GAINESVILLE     62  46  54  46 /   5   5  40  20
MACON           66  50  56  47 /   5  30  80  60
ROME            66  45  63  45 /   5   5  30  10
PEACHTREE CITY  66  47  58  44 /   5  20  60  20
VIDALIA         69  53  61  53 /   5  30  90  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: FANNIN...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31






000
FXUS62 KFFC 170839
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
439 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT DROPPED AS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
EXPECTED DUE TO SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THAT PREVENTED RADIATIONAL
COOLING. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR FAR NORTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL DROP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. PATCHY AREAS...PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...COULD STILL SEE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS WAS NOSING INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN A WEDGE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY...TRACKING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO
SOUTH GEORGIA. HAVE QUICKLY INCREASING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...SPREADING CHANCE TO CATEGORICAL RAIN NORTHWARD AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...KEEPING BEST CHANCES IN THE FAR SOUTHERN TIERS OF COUNTIES.
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE HAD SOME DIFFICULTY AGREEING WITH THE NORTHERN
EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF THE PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA...AND HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE AREA WITHIN THE STABLE AIRMASS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...SO HAVE NO MENTION OF THUNDER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON TO
LOUISVILLE. AT THIS TIME...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A
CONCERN...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH. A WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY IF LATER MODEL RUNS ADVERTISE A MORE NORTH POSITION OF THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS.

DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE WEDGE...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...AND
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES SEEM A LITTLE TOO
FAR FETCHED...KEEPING HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. ON THE
OTHER HAND...MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO WARM FOR THE
SITUATION/ENVIRONMENT. HAVE TRIED TO FIND THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN
THE TWO...TRENDING A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE RAW MODELS TO FINALLY LAND
ON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST GEORGIA...ALONG THE PERIPHERY OR OUTSIDE OF
THE WEDGE AND EXPECTING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. IF THESE TEMPERATURES PAN
OUT...WOULD SEE A RECORD MINIMUM HIGH AT CSG...AND WOULD COME WITHIN
TWO DEGREES FOR AHN AND MCN. HAVE ADDED RECORD INFORMATION IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR REFERENCE.

31


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

LONG TERM PORTION BEGINS WITH LOW PRESSURE TRANSITIONING FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE GFS SOME 6 HRS FASTER
WITH THIS TRANSITION THAN THE ECMWF. OVERALL...AGREEMENT IS BETTER
AMONG THE MODELS INITIALLY THAN LAST NIGHTS RUNS AND NOW ALL
INDICATE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LONG TERM MODELS ALL HAVE A CLOSED
UPPER LOW NOW BUT DIFFERENCES NOW EXIST AS TO HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS
FEATURE MIGHT BE. TRENDS IN MODELS ARE THAT PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW
THOUGH WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF LOW PROVIDING
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS AT A MINIMUM AND CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY AT WORST. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NW TO SE AND LET DAY SHIFT SEE ANOTHER
MODEL RUN BEFORE DECLARING SATURDAY A TOTAL WASHOUT.

ONCE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT...MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO ZONAL ALOFT MAKING TIMING OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES
CHALLENGING. LOOKS LIKE SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MOST IMPRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE BEST POPS OVER NW ZONES AND
THEN TRANSITIONING LOWER OVER SE PORTION AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
LOWER. INSTABILITY STILL INDICATED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH CAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. SHEAR VALUES NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AS PREVIOUS RUNS BUT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH THAT CONDITIONS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

DEESE


&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 04-18...FRIDAY

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1942     54 1902     64 1969     32 1936
                1927
   KATL      87 2002     50 1983     69 1927     33 1997
                1937
                1896
   KCSG      91 2002     62 1983     69 2006     37 1962
                                                    1956
   KMCN      90 1967     55 1921     66 1922     33 2001
                1955

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA BETWEEN 09-16Z. OTHERWISE CEILINGS BETWEEN 3-6KFT
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY 18Z. EAST WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
FORECAST...GENERALLY 5-10KT THROUGH 12Z...INCREASING TO 10-14KT WITH
GUSTS 15-25KT AFTER.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON CEILINGS FOR
TOMORROW.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  46  57  45 /   5  10  60  20
ATLANTA         62  48  57  46 /   5  10  60  20
BLAIRSVILLE     62  40  55  44 /   5   5  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    65  46  60  46 /   5  10  40  10
COLUMBUS        67  51  57  48 /   5  40 100  30
GAINESVILLE     62  46  54  46 /   5   5  40  20
MACON           66  50  56  47 /   5  30  80  60
ROME            66  45  63  45 /   5   5  30  10
PEACHTREE CITY  66  47  58  44 /   5  20  60  20
VIDALIA         69  53  61  53 /   5  30  90  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: FANNIN...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31






000
FXUS62 KCHS 170837
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
437 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS FLORIDA AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT WITH MOST
INLAND OB SITES REPORTING 4-5 KT OF NE FLOW. ACROSS SE GEORGIA...
MILDER CONDITIONS TO THE WEST OF I-95 WITH EXPANSION OF STRATOCUMULUS
FIELDS NOTED ON OVERNIGHT 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE
TO WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS ONLY A NARROW LAYER OF ATLC MOISTURE IS
NOTED UNDER A LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN 4-7 KFT. BONE DRY
AIR NOTED IN THE MID LAYERS AND PWATS BELOW .7 INCHES. ALONG THE
GEORGIA BARRIER ISLANDS CLOSE TO THE ALTAMAHA...CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A SPRINKLE BUT MEASURABLE PCPN CHANCES LOOK MINUTE. HIGHS
TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...STILL WELL BELOW CLIMO. THE BREEZES
NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AND DEEPER AFTERNOON MIXING PROFILES. SKY COVERAGE IS QUITE
CHALLENGING TODAY BUT SOUTHERN ZONES APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO SEE
PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES.

TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING GULF COAST SYSTEM. INCREASING DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO OUR SW WILL SPREAD RAINS INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND SW GEORGIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE RISK FOR WET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS AND LINGERING NE WINDS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILDER OVERNIGHT...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NW
TIER TO LOWER/MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
AN ACTIVE AND VERY WET SCENARIO FOR THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN
THE NAM...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE SUITE OF FORECAST MODELS HAVE
CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION THAT FAVORS A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENT STRETCHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND UP THE
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE. ON FRIDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTENSIFY INTO
A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. AN IMPRESSIVE DEGREE OF FORCING
WILL TAKE SHAPE WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET
DYNAMICS...STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND DEEP MOIST
CONVERGENCE ALL ALIGNING ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
FURTHERMORE...PWATS WILL SURGE TO IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES WHICH
WOULD EXCEED THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID APRIL. PRECIPITATION WILL
INVADE FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY...BECOMING MOST WIDESPREAD FRIDAY
NIGHT. POPS HAVE BEEN ALTERED DRAMATICALLY AND NOW FEATURE NEAR 100
PERCENT CHANCES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
STRONG FORCING AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. BY
SATURDAY MORNING...SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 OR MORE INCHES. POPS THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE FORCING
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW DRIFTS OFF THE
FLORIDA COASTLINE. OF LESSER IMPACT...THE MODELS INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A SLOT OF STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NEGATIVE
SHOWALTER INDICES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT FOR NOW THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE
OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THUNDER MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO INLAND AREAS. THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE DAY 2
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FROM WPC...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED SO NOTHING WILL BE ADDED
TO THE HWO. THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED WITH FUTURE
FORECAST PACKAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SO FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE KEPT IN THE LOW
60S...AND SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE AS THE COLUMN DRIES OUT AND THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. IN FACT LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE DRY WITH JUST LOW END CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WE MAY
HAVE TO DEAL WITH CONSIDERABLE WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY
NEGATIVELY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST FEATURES LOW
70S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS QUIET FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. A WEAK TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH BY THE MID WEEK
TIME PERIOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO CROSS BY WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN
LIMITED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FEATURE A WARMING
TREND...REACHING AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCHS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. KSAV HAS SEEN SOME
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND PATCHY CIGS 2500-3000 FT POSSIBLE
INTO MID MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AS A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT RESIDES ALONG THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. AREAS OF STRATOCU CIGS EXPECTED TO BE TRANSIENT RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD TODAY. THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRES WEDGED DOWN THE
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES BY TONIGHT OVER
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS SUGGEST THE ONGOING SURGE IN THE
20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT MAY EBB ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING TO MORE OF A 15-20 KT FLOW
BUT THEN SURGE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY MORNING. OVER GEORGIA
WATERS...NOT MUCH OF A LULL WITH THE STEADY NE FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR PINCHING TO PERSIST RIGHT ALONG COASTAL
BEAUFORT AND CHATHAM COUNTIES GIVEN THE ALIGNMENT OF THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE GRADIENTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE WITHIN
20 NM AND UP TO 10 FT OFFSHORE CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM INTO
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A STRONG NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASES FRIDAY
NIGHT ONWARD AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS FLORIDA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
FLUCTUATED TO FAVORING A SURFACE LOW TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
TO THE LOCAL WATERS. IF THIS OCCURS...THE GRADIENT MAY ACTUALLY
RELAX AND RESULT IN WEAKER FLOW. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW REMAINS
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE GRADIENT MAY ACTUALLY BE ENHANCED AND
RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE EVENT AND HIGH SURF FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO SAY WHICH
SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN LEFT INTACT...AND SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
UPDATES WILL HAVE TO READDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE HAZARDS.
THERE IS BETTER CERTAINTY FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY WEEK TIME
PERIOD WHEN THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ENHANCED GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. STRONG WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS APPEAR LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...A BIT OF AN UNDERLYING LONGER PERIOD SWELL NOTED FROM
FRYING PAN SHOALS TO GRAYS REEF OVERNIGHT WAS ENOUGH TO TIP OUR
MODERATE RISK TO A HIGH RISK FROM BEAUFORT COUNTY SOUTHWARD. A
MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR CHARLESTON BEACHES
TODAY WITH AN ENHANCED LONGSHORE CURRENT. AN ENHANCED RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT IS
INCREASING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY...AND TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST...WITH SOME LOCALLY
GREATER TOTALS POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH...AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER ELSEWHERE
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ALSO...MAIN STEM
RIVERS AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES WILL LIKELY SEE RISES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING DEPENDING ON OBSERVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HYDROLOGY...BSH






000
FXUS62 KFFC 170808
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
408 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK. STILL LOOKS TO BE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
INCREASING LATE FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FREEZE WARNING
STILL LOOKS GOOD...THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING AND FROST CHANCES ARE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS SUFFICIENTLY MIXED.

20

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO THE CWA SETTING UP
A WEDGE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN
THE NORTHEAST GULF SHOULD BRING SHOWERS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GA AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL GA BEGINNING 00Z FRIDAY. AIR MASS REMAINS STABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD SO NO THUNDER HAS BEEN MENTIONED. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE LOOKS CLOSE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE TO EAST WINDS...HAVE
GENERALLY STAYED A BIT ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE MINS AND TOWARD THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE MAXES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE NE CORNER. HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER
FREEZE WARNING FOR THAT AREA. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A BIT OVERNIGHT
SO NOT EXPECTING FROST TO BE AN ISSUE. THINK CLOUDS SHOULD STAY OUT
OF THE CWA TONIGHT...BUT EASTERLY WINDS MAY BRING THEM WESTWARD
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW.

41

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO MERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE
THE NEXT SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING PRECIP FURTHER NORTH BUT INDICATIONS IN THE 12Z RUNS HAVE
BEEN FOR THE GFS TO TREND TOWARD A MORE NORTHWARD SOLUTION AS
WELL. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS NORTH TO LIKELY POPS SOUTH ON
FRIDAY...TRANSITIONING TO EASTERN SECTIONS LATE FRIDAY.
INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY THE EXTREME
SOUTH SHOULD SEE THUNDER CHANCES AND IT WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST.

MORE DISCREPANCIES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE TRANSITION TO MORE
ZONAL FLOW AND ISSUE BECOMES TRYING TO TIME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS FIRST SYSTEM THROUGH ON
MONDAY FOR THE NORTH. BOTH EVENTUALLY BRING A MAIN IMPULSE THROUGH
BUT THE GFS INDICATES IT WILL BE EARLY TU WHILE THE ECMWF IS
HINTING MORE TUE NIGHT. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW BUT IF
TRENDS CONTINUE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...WILL LIKELY NEED TO
INCREASE POP CHANCES. INSTABILITY CERTAINLY LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE
THAN OTHER SYSTEMS THIS YEAR AND WITH MODEST SHEAR WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.

DEESE/16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA 09-16Z. EXPECT 3-6KFT
CIGS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY 18-20Z.
EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-13KT AFTER 12Z WITH GUSTS 15-25KT
BEGINNING MID MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  46  57  45 /   5  10  60  20
ATLANTA         62  48  57  46 /   5  10  60  20
BLAIRSVILLE     62  40  55  44 /   5   5  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    65  46  60  46 /   5  10  40  10
COLUMBUS        67  51  57  48 /   5  40 100  30
GAINESVILLE     62  46  54  46 /   5   5  40  20
MACON           66  50  56  47 /   5  30  80  60
ROME            66  45  63  45 /   5   5  30  10
PEACHTREE CITY  66  47  58  44 /   5  20  60  20
VIDALIA         69  53  61  53 /   5  30  90  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: FANNIN...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31






000
FXUS62 KCAE 170742
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
342 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY RESULT IN
SOME STRATOCUMULUS. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...EXPECT GENERALLY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH A GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE SOME CLOUDINESS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL DISCREPANCY
REDUCES CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT AND TIMING. WILL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-020-
     021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 170531
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
131 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH A 25 TO 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. CURRENT SATELLITE TREND SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST GA COAST HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING WEST/NORTHWEST.
OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE AS
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH A GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE SOME CLOUDINESS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL DISCREPANCY
REDUCES CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT AND TIMING. WILL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-020-
     021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170531
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
131 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH A 25 TO 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. CURRENT SATELLITE TREND SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST GA COAST HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING WEST/NORTHWEST.
OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE AS
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH A GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE SOME CLOUDINESS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL DISCREPANCY
REDUCES CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT AND TIMING. WILL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-020-
     021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 170530
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
130 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS IT PASSES BY TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. MODELS SHOW
MEAGER 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING FROM MIDNIGHT ON. DESPITE
THE UPTICK IN ASSENT...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 100 MB UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WHERE VALUES
DROP BELOW 50 NM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY CREEPING INLAND FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ROUGHLY BETWEEN 3 AM AND SUNRISE. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE GRIDDED SKY FORECASTS TO MATCH EXPECTED
TRENDS...DEPICTING MOSTLY CLEAR WELL INLAND THROUGH 12Z WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN SOME AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16.

FULL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS DOUBTFUL TONIGHT GIVEN
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP DESPITE THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE ON THE RECENT PRODUCT
UPDATES TO LOW TEMPS AND HOURLY TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEDGED DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL BE GRADUALLY RETREATING IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL IN THE
MORNING...BEFORE CIRRUS STARTS TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES WARM...TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND BY RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.

UPPER VORT ENERGY DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE
LOW FORMING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S FRIDAY.

THERE REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO
BE THE DRY OUTLIERS WHILE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF REMAIN QUITE WET
WITH A MORE WESTERN LOW TRACK. WE MAINTAINED SIMILAR POPS TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT INCREASED VALUES A BIT...MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST PASS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION WOULD CERTAINLY BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS BUT THE
INLAND EXTENT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL REALLY DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AND WHETHER PRECIPITATION LINGERS AS THE ECMWF CURRENTLY SHOWS. FOR
NOW WE ARE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S...A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY IN THE PERIOD THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THE DEEPER MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE LOW LINGERING AROUND WITH RAIN STILL ONGOING
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. BY MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT MAY ATTEMPT TO SAG IN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD
WITH SOME MODEST INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMO...ESPECIALLY BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CIGS AT BOTH TERMINALS
09-12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS JUNCTURE TO
INCLUDE A MENTION. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT RESIDES ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR. AREAS
OF STRATOCU CIGS EXPECTED TO BE TRANSIENT RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD
TODAY. THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR PERIODIC SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS MARINE STRATOCUMULUS
ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE. BETTER CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT....HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH TONIGHT
PRODUCING AN ENHANCED GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS MEANS
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS MOSTLY 5 TO 7 FT NEAR
SHORE AND UP TO 9 FT CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A GULF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TAKING SHAPE TO THE SOUTH. THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW...BUT IT WILL AT LEAST INDIRECTLY AFFECT OUR WATERS AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
FETCH WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS INTO MIDDAY MONDAY DUE
TO LINGERING SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT SWELL...LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES
AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS. AN ENHANCED RISK MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170358
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1158 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH A 25 TO 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. CURRENT SATELLITE TREND SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST GA COAST HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING WEST/NORTHWEST.
OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE AS
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE AFTER 08Z BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PREVENTING ANY FOG
ISSUES. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AGAIN
AFTER 09Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE VFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 170358
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1158 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH A 25 TO 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. CURRENT SATELLITE TREND SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST GA COAST HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING WEST/NORTHWEST.
OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE AS
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE AFTER 08Z BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PREVENTING ANY FOG
ISSUES. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AGAIN
AFTER 09Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE VFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 170358
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1158 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH A 25 TO 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. CURRENT SATELLITE TREND SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST GA COAST HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING WEST/NORTHWEST.
OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE AS
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE AFTER 08Z BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PREVENTING ANY FOG
ISSUES. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AGAIN
AFTER 09Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE VFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 170358
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1158 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH A 25 TO 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. CURRENT SATELLITE TREND SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST GA COAST HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING WEST/NORTHWEST.
OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE AS
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE AFTER 08Z BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PREVENTING ANY FOG
ISSUES. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AGAIN
AFTER 09Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE VFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 170249
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1049 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH A 25
TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. CURRENT SATELLITE TREND SHOWS LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST AND HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING
WEST/NORTHWEST. OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS
CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND OBS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE WITH A FREEZE
WARNING FOR THE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT
DIFFER ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLING WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...STAY CLOSE FOR ANY CHANGES OR UPDATES FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AFTER
THE CHILLY WEATHER THAT ENDS THE WEEK AND EXPECT THEM TO RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE AFTER 08Z BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PREVENTING ANY FOG
ISSUES. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AGAIN
AFTER 09Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE VFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 170249
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1049 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH A 25
TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. CURRENT SATELLITE TREND SHOWS LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST AND HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING
WEST/NORTHWEST. OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS
CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND OBS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE WITH A FREEZE
WARNING FOR THE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT
DIFFER ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLING WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...STAY CLOSE FOR ANY CHANGES OR UPDATES FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AFTER
THE CHILLY WEATHER THAT ENDS THE WEEK AND EXPECT THEM TO RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE AFTER 08Z BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PREVENTING ANY FOG
ISSUES. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AGAIN
AFTER 09Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE VFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 170249
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1049 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH A 25
TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. CURRENT SATELLITE TREND SHOWS LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST AND HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING
WEST/NORTHWEST. OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS
CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND OBS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE WITH A FREEZE
WARNING FOR THE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT
DIFFER ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLING WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...STAY CLOSE FOR ANY CHANGES OR UPDATES FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AFTER
THE CHILLY WEATHER THAT ENDS THE WEEK AND EXPECT THEM TO RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE AFTER 08Z BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PREVENTING ANY FOG
ISSUES. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AGAIN
AFTER 09Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE VFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 170249
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1049 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH A 25
TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. CURRENT SATELLITE TREND SHOWS LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST AND HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING
WEST/NORTHWEST. OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS
CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND OBS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE WITH A FREEZE
WARNING FOR THE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT
DIFFER ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLING WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...STAY CLOSE FOR ANY CHANGES OR UPDATES FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AFTER
THE CHILLY WEATHER THAT ENDS THE WEEK AND EXPECT THEM TO RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE AFTER 08Z BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PREVENTING ANY FOG
ISSUES. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AGAIN
AFTER 09Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE VFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KFFC 170141 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
940 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK. STILL LOOKS TO BE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
INCREASING LATE FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FREEZE WARNING
STILL LOOKS GOOD...THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING AND FROST CHANCES ARE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS SUFFICIENTLY MIXED.

20

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO THE CWA SETTING UP
A WEDGE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN
THE NORTHEAST GULF SHOULD BRING SHOWERS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GA AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL GA BEGINNING 00Z FRIDAY. AIR MASS REMAINS STABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD SO NO THUNDER HAS BEEN MENTIONED. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE LOOKS CLOSE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE TO EAST WINDS...HAVE
GENERALLY STAYED A BIT ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE MINS AND TOWARD THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE MAXES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE NE CORNER. HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER
FREEZE WARNING FOR THAT AREA. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A BIT OVERNIGHT
SO NOT EXPECTING FROST TO BE AN ISSUE. THINK CLOUDS SHOULD STAY OUT
OF THE CWA TONIGHT...BUT EASTERLY WINDS MAY BRING THEM WESTWARD
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW.

41

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO MERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE
THE NEXT SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING PRECIP FURTHER NORTH BUT INDICATIONS IN THE 12Z RUNS HAVE
BEEN FOR THE GFS TO TREND TOWARD A MORE NORTHWARD SOLUTION AS
WELL. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS NORTH TO LIKELY POPS SOUTH ON
FRIDAY...TRANSITIONING TO EASTERN SECTIONS LATE FRIDAY.
INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY THE EXTREME
SOUTH SHOULD SEE THUNDER CHANCES AND IT WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST.

MORE DISCREPANCIES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE TRANSITION TO MORE
ZONAL FLOW AND ISSUE BECOMES TRYING TO TIME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS FIRST SYSTEM THROUGH ON
MONDAY FOR THE NORTH. BOTH EVENTUALLY BRING A MAIN IMPULSE THROUGH
BUT THE GFS INDICATES IT WILL BE EARLY TU WHILE THE ECMWF IS
HINTING MORE TUE NIGHT. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW BUT IF
TRENDS CONTINUE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...WILL LIKELY NEED TO
INCREASE POP CHANCES. INSTABILITY CERTAINLY LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE
THAN OTHER SYSTEMS THIS YEAR AND WITH MODEST SHEAR WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.

DEESE/16


AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA BETWEEN 09-16Z. OTHERWISE CEILINGS BETWEEN 3-6KFT
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY 18Z. EAST WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
FORECAST...GENERALLY 5-10KT THROUGH 12Z...INCREASING TO 10-14KT WITH
GUSTS 15-25KT AFTER.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON CEILINGS FOR
TOMORROW.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          36  63  47  64 /   0   5  10  40
ATLANTA         41  60  52  64 /   0   5  10  40
BLAIRSVILLE     31  61  42  65 /   0   5  10  40
CARTERSVILLE    36  62  47  67 /   0   5  10  40
COLUMBUS        42  66  53  69 /   0  10  30  40
GAINESVILLE     38  59  47  63 /   0   5  10  40
MACON           40  65  52  67 /   0   5  20  40
ROME            35  62  47  67 /   0   5  10  40
PEACHTREE CITY  36  63  50  67 /   0   5  10  40
VIDALIA         44  67  55  69 /   0  10  30  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: FANNIN...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...41












000
FXUS62 KCHS 170124
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
924 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS IT PASSES BY TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
PARAMETERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WERE MADE.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. MODELS SHOW
MEAGER 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING FROM MIDNIGHT ON. DESPITE
THE UPTICK IN ASSENT...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 100 MB UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WHERE VALUES
DROP BELOW 50 NM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY CREEPING INLAND FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ROUGHLY BETWEEN 3 AM AND SUNRISE. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE GRIDDED SKY FORECASTS TO MATCH EXPECTED
TRENDS...DEPICTING MOSTLY CLEAR WELL INLAND THROUGH 12Z WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16.

FULL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS DOUBTFUL TONIGHT GIVEN
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP DESPITE THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. OPTED TO NUDGE OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS PER 18Z GUIDANCE AND PATTERN RECOGNITION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEDGED DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL BE GRADUALLY RETREATING IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL IN THE
MORNING...BEFORE CIRRUS STARTS TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES WARM...TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND BY RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.

UPPER VORT ENERGY DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE
LOW FORMING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S FRIDAY.

THERE REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO
BE THE DRY OUTLIERS WHILE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF REMAIN QUITE WET
WITH A MORE WESTERN LOW TRACK. WE MAINTAINED SIMILAR POPS TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT INCREASED VALUES A BIT...MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST PASS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION WOULD CERTAINLY BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS BUT THE
INLAND EXTENT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL REALLY DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AND WHETHER PRECIPITATION LINGERS AS THE ECMWF CURRENTLY SHOWS. FOR
NOW WE ARE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S...A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY IN THE PERIOD THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THE DEEPER MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE LOW LINGERING AROUND WITH RAIN STILL ONGOING
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. BY MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT MAY ATTEMPT TO SAG IN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD
WITH SOME MODEST INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMO...ESPECIALLY BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CIGS AT BOTH
TERMINALS 09-12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
JUNCTURE TO INCLUDE A MENTION. CAPPED CIGS AT BKN040-050 AT KSAV
AND OPTED NOT TO ESTABLISH CIGS AT KCHS DURING THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR PERIODIC SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS MARINE STRATOCUMULUS
ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE. BETTER CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT....HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH TONIGHT
PRODUCING AN ENHANCED GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS MEANS
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS MOSTLY 5 TO 7 FT NEAR
SHORE AND UP TO 9 FT CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A GULF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TAKING SHAPE TO THE SOUTH. THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW...BUT IT WILL AT LEAST INDIRECTLY AFFECT OUR WATERS AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
FETCH WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS INTO MIDDAY MONDAY DUE
TO LINGERING SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT SWELL...LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES
AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS. AN ENHANCED RISK MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT TIDE TRENDS SUGGEST TIDE LEVELS WILL PEAK JUST UNDER 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...STEADY AND PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE A
FEW PROBLEMS IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON DUE TO ONGOING TIDAL LOADING...
DESPITE TIDES OF 6.7-6.9 FT MLLW. WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT FOR CHARLESTON COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT MINOR IMPACTS IN
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...MAINLY IN THE NORMAL FLOOD PRONE AREAS. TIDE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
THE NEED FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST HAS NOT BEEN COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCAE 162351
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
751 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH A 25
TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS COULD HELP KEEP
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
WITH A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN MIDLANDS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT
DIFFER ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLING WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...STAY CLOSE FOR ANY CHANGES OR UPDATES FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AFTER
THE CHILLY WEATHER THAT ENDS THE WEEK AND EXPECT THEM TO RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE AFTER 08Z BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PREVENTING ANY FOG
ISSUES. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AGAIN
AFTER 09Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE VFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 162351
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
751 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH A 25
TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS COULD HELP KEEP
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
WITH A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN MIDLANDS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT
DIFFER ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLING WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...STAY CLOSE FOR ANY CHANGES OR UPDATES FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AFTER
THE CHILLY WEATHER THAT ENDS THE WEEK AND EXPECT THEM TO RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE AFTER 08Z BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PREVENTING ANY FOG
ISSUES. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AGAIN
AFTER 09Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE VFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 162351
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
751 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH A 25
TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS COULD HELP KEEP
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
WITH A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN MIDLANDS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT
DIFFER ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLING WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...STAY CLOSE FOR ANY CHANGES OR UPDATES FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AFTER
THE CHILLY WEATHER THAT ENDS THE WEEK AND EXPECT THEM TO RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE AFTER 08Z BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PREVENTING ANY FOG
ISSUES. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AGAIN
AFTER 09Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE VFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 162351
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
751 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH A 25
TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS COULD HELP KEEP
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
WITH A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN MIDLANDS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT
DIFFER ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLING WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...STAY CLOSE FOR ANY CHANGES OR UPDATES FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AFTER
THE CHILLY WEATHER THAT ENDS THE WEEK AND EXPECT THEM TO RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE AFTER 08Z BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PREVENTING ANY FOG
ISSUES. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AGAIN
AFTER 09Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE VFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 162348 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
745 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO THE CWA SETTING UP
A WEDGE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN
THE NORTHEAST GULF SHOULD BRING SHOWERS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GA AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL GA BEGINNING 00Z FRIDAY. AIR MASS REMAINS STABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD SO NO THUNDER HAS BEEN MENTIONED. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE LOOKS CLOSE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE TO EAST WINDS...HAVE
GENERALLY STAYED A BIT ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE MINS AND TOWARD THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE MAXES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE NE CORNER. HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER
FREEZE WARNING FOR THAT AREA. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A BIT OVERNIGHT
SO NOT EXPECTING FROST TO BE AN ISSUE. THINK CLOUDS SHOULD STAY OUT
OF THE CWA TONIGHT...BUT EASTERLY WINDS MAY BRING THEM WESTWARD
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW.

41

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO MERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE
THE NEXT SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING PRECIP FURTHER NORTH BUT INDICATIONS IN THE 12Z RUNS HAVE
BEEN FOR THE GFS TO TREND TOWARD A MORE NORTHWARD SOLUTION AS
WELL. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS NORTH TO LIKELY POPS SOUTH ON
FRIDAY...TRANSITIONING TO EASTERN SECTIONS LATE FRIDAY.
INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY THE EXTREME
SOUTH SHOULD SEE THUNDER CHANCES AND IT WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST.

MORE DISCREPANCIES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE TRANSITION TO MORE
ZONAL FLOW AND ISSUE BECOMES TRYING TO TIME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS FIRST SYSTEM THROUGH ON
MONDAY FOR THE NORTH. BOTH EVENTUALLY BRING A MAIN IMPULSE THROUGH
BUT THE GFS INDICATES IT WILL BE EARLY TU WHILE THE ECMWF IS
HINTING MORE TUE NIGHT. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW BUT IF
TRENDS CONTINUE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...WILL LIKELY NEED TO
INCREASE POP CHANCES. INSTABILITY CERTAINLY LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE
THAN OTHER SYSTEMS THIS YEAR AND WITH MODEST SHEAR WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.

DEESE/16


AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA BETWEEN 09-16Z. OTHERWISE CEILINGS BETWEEN 3-6KFT
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY 18Z. EAST WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
FORECAST...GENERALLY 5-10KT THROUGH 12Z...INCREASING TO 10-14KT WITH
GUSTS 15-25KT AFTER.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON CEILINGS FOR
TOMORROW.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          36  63  47  64 /   0   5  10  40
ATLANTA         41  60  52  64 /   0   5  10  40
BLAIRSVILLE     31  61  42  65 /   0   5  10  40
CARTERSVILLE    36  62  47  67 /   0   5  10  40
COLUMBUS        42  66  53  69 /   0  10  30  40
GAINESVILLE     38  59  47  63 /   0   5  10  40
MACON           40  65  52  67 /   0   5  20  40
ROME            35  62  47  67 /   0   5  10  40
PEACHTREE CITY  36  63  50  67 /   0   5  10  40
VIDALIA         44  67  55  69 /   0  10  30  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: FANNIN...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...41









000
FXUS62 KCHS 162237
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
637 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS IT PASSES BY TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. MODELS SHOW
MEAGER 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING FROM MIDNIGHT ON. DESPITE
THE UPTICK IN ASSENT...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 100 MB UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WHERE VALUES
DROP BELOW 50 NM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY CREEPING INLAND FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ROUGHLY BETWEEN 3 AM AND SUNRISE. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE GRIDDED SKY FORECASTS TO MATCH EXPECTED
TRENDS...DEPICTING MOSTLY CLEAR WELL INLAND THROUGH 12Z WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16.

FULL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS DOUBTFUL TONIGHT GIVEN
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP DESPITE THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. OPTED TO NUDGE OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS PER 18Z GUIDANCE AND PATTERN RECOGNITION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEDGED DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL BE GRADUALLY RETREATING IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL IN THE
MORNING...BEFORE CIRRUS STARTS TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES WARM...TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND BY RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.

UPPER VORT ENERGY DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE
LOW FORMING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S FRIDAY.

THERE REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO
BE THE DRY OUTLIERS WHILE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF REMAIN QUITE WET
WITH A MORE WESTERN LOW TRACK. WE MAINTAINED SIMILAR POPS TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT INCREASED VALUES A BIT...MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST PASS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION WOULD CERTAINLY BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS BUT THE
INLAND EXTENT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL REALLY DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AND WHETHER PRECIPITATION LINGERS AS THE ECMWF CURRENTLY SHOWS. FOR
NOW WE ARE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S...A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY IN THE PERIOD THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THE DEEPER MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE LOW LINGERING AROUND WITH RAIN STILL ONGOING
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. BY MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT MAY ATTEMPT TO SAG IN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD
WITH SOME MODEST INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMO...ESPECIALLY BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CIGS AT BOTH
TERMINALS 09-12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
JUNCTURE TO INCLUDE A MENTION. CAPPED CIGS AT BKN040-050 AT KSAV
AND OPTED NOT TO ESTABLISH CIGS AT KCHS DURING THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR PERIODIC SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS MARINE STRATOCUMULUS
ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE. BETTER CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT....HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH TONIGHT
PRODUCING AN ENHANCED GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS MEANS
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS MOSTLY 5 TO 7 FT NEAR
SHORE AND UP TO 9 FT CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A GULF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TAKING SHAPE TO THE SOUTH. THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW...BUT IT WILL AT LEAST INDIRECTLY AFFECT OUR WATERS AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
FETCH WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS INTO MIDDAY MONDAY DUE
TO LINGERING SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT SWELL...LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES
AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS. AN ENHANCED RISK MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT TIDE TRENDS SUGGEST TIDE LEVELS WILL PEAK JUST UNDER 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...STEADY AND PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE A
FEW PROBLEMS IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON DUE TO ONGOING TIDAL LOADING...
DESPITE TIDES OF 6.8-6.9 FT MLLW. WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT FOR CHARLESTON COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT MINOR IMPACTS IN
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...MAINLY IN THE NORMAL FLOOD PRONE AREAS. TIDE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
THE NEED FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST HAS NOT BEEN COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON REACHED 59 DEGREES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 58
DEGREES SET IN 1962 WILL STAND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCAE 162229
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
629 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH A 25
TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS COULD HELP KEEP
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
WITH A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN MIDLANDS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT
DIFFER ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLING WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...STAY CLOSE FOR ANY CHANGES OR UPDATES FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AFTER
THE CHILLY WEATHER THAT ENDS THE WEEK AND EXPECT THEM TO RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. SKIES WILL CLEAR INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA MAINLY AFTER
AROUND 08Z THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP AROUND
5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY PREVENTING ANY
FOG ISSUES. NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 162229
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
629 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH A 25
TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS COULD HELP KEEP
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
WITH A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN MIDLANDS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT
DIFFER ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLING WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...STAY CLOSE FOR ANY CHANGES OR UPDATES FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AFTER
THE CHILLY WEATHER THAT ENDS THE WEEK AND EXPECT THEM TO RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. SKIES WILL CLEAR INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA MAINLY AFTER
AROUND 08Z THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP AROUND
5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY PREVENTING ANY
FOG ISSUES. NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCHS 162001
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
401 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS IT PASSES BY TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND/MID-
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
LOCAL AREA WHICH MEANS WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT LATE
COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME STRATOCUMULUS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. OF COURSE CLOUD
COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW COLD TEMPS GET. FOR NOW WE LEANED
TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE WHICH MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS MEANS MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND WITH LOWER
TO MID 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AROUND 50 OR EVEN LOWER 50S AT
THE BEACHES...WARMEST ALONG THE GA COAST. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH FROST FORMATION BUT
COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE MORE ISOLATED RURAL
LOCALES IF THEY GET INTO THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEDGED DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL BE GRADUALLY RETREATING IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL IN THE
MORNING...BEFORE CIRRUS STARTS TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES WARM...TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND BY RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.

UPPER VORT ENERGY DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE
LOW FORMING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S FRIDAY.

THERE REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO
BE THE DRY OUTLIERS WHILE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF REMAIN QUITE WET
WITH A MORE WESTERN LOW TRACK. WE MAINTAINED SIMILAR POPS TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT INCREASED VALUES A BIT...MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST PASS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION WOULD CERTAINLY BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS BUT THE
INLAND EXTENT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL REALLY DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AND WHETHER PRECIPITATION LINGERS AS THE ECMWF CURRENTLY SHOWS. FOR
NOW WE ARE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S...A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY IN THE PERIOD THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THE DEEPER MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE LOW LINGERING AROUND WITH RAIN STILL ONGOING
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. BY MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT MAY ATTEMPT TO SAG IN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD
WITH SOME MODEST INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMO...ESPECIALLY BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...THEN
THERE WILL BE A LOW RISK FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMS AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE ELEVATED/GUSTY N TO NE WINDS...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...  LOW CHANCES FOR PERIODIC SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS MARINE STRATOCUMULUS
ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE. BETTER CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT....HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH TONIGHT
PRODUCING AN ENHANCED GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS MEANS
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS MOSTLY 5 TO 7
FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 9 FT CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A GULF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TAKING SHAPE TO THE SOUTH. THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW...BUT IT WILL AT LEAST INDIRECTLY AFFECT OUR WATERS AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
FETCH WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS INTO MIDDAY MONDAY DUE
TO LINGERING SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT SWELL...LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES
AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS. AN ENHANCED RISK MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING ABOVE WHAT THEY SHOULD BE GIVEN THE STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS AND THIS COULD PUSH LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SOME SHALLOW INUNDATION OF SALTWATER NEAR THE COAST DURING THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY AROUND CHARLESTON. THUS...A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON MAY TIE OR BREAK THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY. THE CURRENT RECORD IS 58 DEGREES SET IN 1962.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KFFC 161946
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
346 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO THE CWA SETTING UP
A WEDGE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN
THE NORTHEAST GULF SHOULD BRING SHOWERS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GA AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL GA BEGINNING 00Z FRIDAY. AIR MASS REMAINS STABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD SO NO THUNDER HAS BEEN MENTIONED. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE LOOKS CLOSE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE TO EAST WINDS...HAVE
GENERALLY STAYED A BIT ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE MINS AND TOWARD THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE MAXES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE NE CORNER. HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER
FREEZE WARNING FOR THAT AREA. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A BIT OVERNIGHT
SO NOT EXPECTING FROST TO BE AN ISSUE. THINK CLOUDS SHOULD STAY OUT
OF THE CWA TONIGHT...BUT EASTERLY WINDS MAY BRING THEM WESTWARD
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW.

41

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO MERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE
THE NEXT SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING PRECIP FURTHER NORTH BUT INDICATIONS IN THE 12Z RUNS HAVE
BEEN FOR THE GFS TO TREND TOWARD A MORE NORTHWARD SOLUTION AS
WELL. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS NORTH TO LIKELY POPS SOUTH ON
FRIDAY...TRANSITIONING TO EASTERN SECTIONS LATE FRIDAY.
INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY THE EXTREME
SOUTH SHOULD SEE THUNDER CHANCES AND IT WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST.

MORE DISCREPANCIES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE TRANSITION TO MORE
ZONAL FLOW AND ISSUE BECOMES TRYING TO TIME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS FIRST SYSTEM THROUGH ON
MONDAY FOR THE NORTH. BOTH EVENTUALLY BRING A MAIN IMPULSE THROUGH
BUT THE GFS INDICATES IT WILL BE EARLY TU WHILE THE ECMWF IS
HINTING MORE TUE NIGHT. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW BUT IF
TRENDS CONTINUE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...WILL LIKELY NEED TO
INCREASE POP CHANCES. INSTABILITY CERTAINLY LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE
THAN OTHER SYSTEMS THIS YEAR AND WITH MODEST SHEAR WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.

DEESE/16


AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE 10 TO 12KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20KT.
WINDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT BUT SHOULD RANGE 8 TO 10KT. EAST WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN AFTER 12Z THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN
THE NORTHERN GULF. SOME STRATO CU DEVELOPING AROUND 030 TO 035 AFTER
14Z THURSDAY...BUT POSSIBLY MAY DEVELOP EARLIER.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON CEILINGS FOR
TOMORROW MORNING.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          36  63  47  64 /   0   5  10  40
ATLANTA         41  60  52  64 /   0   5  10  40
BLAIRSVILLE     31  61  42  65 /   0   5  10  40
CARTERSVILLE    36  62  47  67 /   0   5  10  40
COLUMBUS        42  66  53  69 /   0  10  30  40
GAINESVILLE     38  59  47  63 /   0   5  10  40
MACON           40  65  52  67 /   0   5  20  40
ROME            35  62  47  67 /   0   5  10  40
PEACHTREE CITY  36  63  50  67 /   0   5  10  40
VIDALIA         44  67  55  69 /   0  10  30  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: FANNIN...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...41






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