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000
FXUS62 KCHS 291950
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
350 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION UNTIL A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY RETURNING BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BASED ON CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LINING UP
ACROSS AN AREA WELL WEST OF I-95 AS ANTICIPATED. THE CUMULUS FIELD
TO THE EAST IS QUITE MUTED AND THIS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY LI FIELDS
ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS WHICH RANGE FROM AROUND -7 C ACROSS SOUTH
GEORGIA TO ONLY -2 OR -3 C ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY REGION. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE WEAK AND DCAPE VALUES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST.
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW FOR EVEN THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER TILL JUST
AFTER SUNSET BUT THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY AND POP-FREE.
THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE LOW RESULTING IN A TRANQUIL NIGHT. THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ISN/T EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO CARRY IN THE
FORECAST. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST
WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. BEST RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO BE INLAND CLOSER TO THE FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY OF THE PULSE
VARIETY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN HAZARDS. HIGHS
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 90S INLAND AWAY FROM THE
COOLER COASTAL AREAS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST SC/GA.

FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE NEAR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST SC/GA TO START THE DAY BEFORE DISSIPATING AS DAYTIME
HEATING COMMENCES. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY EVENING. LIGHT LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND DEEP
MOISTURE COULD YIELD A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING. HIGHS LOOK TO BE HELD DOWN A BIT GIVEN
THE INCREASED CLOUD/RAIN COVERAGE BUT SHOULD STILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN
THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT POSSIBLY NOT COMPLETELY AS THE WEAK
FRONT/TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY...THE FORECAST IS A BIT LESS CONFIDENT THIS DAY AS THERE
ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE. THE 12Z/29 NAM12/GFS DO NOT SHOW MUCH
RAIN ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF STILL DOES. FOR NOW WE PREFER TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT...ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH...WEAK
STEERING WINDS AND RESERVOIR OF ABOVE-NORMAL PWATS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED POPS AND A CONTINUING THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/SHORT FUSE FLOODING. LIKELY POPS APPEAR
REASONABLE FOR SATURDAY. THEN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES REGARDING
THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUNDAY-MONDAY. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ALLOWS THE TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STRONGER
AND HOLDS THE TROUGH AXIS AND RICH MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS
DEPICTED BY THE 29/00Z EUROPEAN...ELEVATED POPS/THE ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OR WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES/POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. IF THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A SITE TO BE
IMPACTED...IT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY AT KSAV. THEN OVERNIGHT...SOME
LOW END POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY PREVAILING CEILING/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...ALBEIT A BIT MORESO AT KSAV. INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY...POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS A FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ONSHORE BUT DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FEET...EXCEPT
UP TO 3 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALL OVER
THE REGION...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS... THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND PERIODIC
NOCTURNAL SURGES COULD PUSH WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3
FEET WILL REMAIN COMMON... ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF 4 FT SEAS COULD OCCUR
ESPECIALLY AT 20 NM AND BEYOND. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT
ANY TIME LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY
ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS AND WILL CREATE LOCALIZED HAZARDS...PERHAPS
INCLUDING WATERSPOUTS PARTICULARLY THU/FRI/SAT MORNINGS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
FOR THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE PREDICTED TIDE IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR IS 6.3 FEET AND TIDAL DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN
RUNNING SOLIDLY AROUND 1 FOOT TODAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A HIGH
TIDE IN THE 7.1-7.3 FEET MLLW RANGE. AT FORT PULASKI...THE
PREDICTED TIDE IS 8.0 FEET AND TIDAL DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN LESS
THAN 1 FOOT FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HIGH TIDE AT FORT PULASKI WILL
LIKELY PEAK AT OR JUST ABOVE 9 FEET...JUST BELOW THE 9.2 FEET MLLW
THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING. ONSHORE WINDS HAVE ALSO
BEEN STRONGER...IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE...ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE AND FULL MOON
CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT AT
TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BSH/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291950
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
350 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION UNTIL A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY RETURNING BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BASED ON CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LINING UP
ACROSS AN AREA WELL WEST OF I-95 AS ANTICIPATED. THE CUMULUS FIELD
TO THE EAST IS QUITE MUTED AND THIS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY LI FIELDS
ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS WHICH RANGE FROM AROUND -7 C ACROSS SOUTH
GEORGIA TO ONLY -2 OR -3 C ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY REGION. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE WEAK AND DCAPE VALUES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST.
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW FOR EVEN THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER TILL JUST
AFTER SUNSET BUT THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY AND POP-FREE.
THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE LOW RESULTING IN A TRANQUIL NIGHT. THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ISN/T EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO CARRY IN THE
FORECAST. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST
WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. BEST RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO BE INLAND CLOSER TO THE FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY OF THE PULSE
VARIETY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN HAZARDS. HIGHS
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 90S INLAND AWAY FROM THE
COOLER COASTAL AREAS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST SC/GA.

FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE NEAR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST SC/GA TO START THE DAY BEFORE DISSIPATING AS DAYTIME
HEATING COMMENCES. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY EVENING. LIGHT LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND DEEP
MOISTURE COULD YIELD A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING. HIGHS LOOK TO BE HELD DOWN A BIT GIVEN
THE INCREASED CLOUD/RAIN COVERAGE BUT SHOULD STILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN
THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT POSSIBLY NOT COMPLETELY AS THE WEAK
FRONT/TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY...THE FORECAST IS A BIT LESS CONFIDENT THIS DAY AS THERE
ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE. THE 12Z/29 NAM12/GFS DO NOT SHOW MUCH
RAIN ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF STILL DOES. FOR NOW WE PREFER TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT...ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH...WEAK
STEERING WINDS AND RESERVOIR OF ABOVE-NORMAL PWATS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED POPS AND A CONTINUING THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/SHORT FUSE FLOODING. LIKELY POPS APPEAR
REASONABLE FOR SATURDAY. THEN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES REGARDING
THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUNDAY-MONDAY. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ALLOWS THE TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STRONGER
AND HOLDS THE TROUGH AXIS AND RICH MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS
DEPICTED BY THE 29/00Z EUROPEAN...ELEVATED POPS/THE ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OR WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES/POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. IF THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A SITE TO BE
IMPACTED...IT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY AT KSAV. THEN OVERNIGHT...SOME
LOW END POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY PREVAILING CEILING/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...ALBEIT A BIT MORESO AT KSAV. INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY...POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS A FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ONSHORE BUT DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FEET...EXCEPT
UP TO 3 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALL OVER
THE REGION...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS... THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND PERIODIC
NOCTURNAL SURGES COULD PUSH WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3
FEET WILL REMAIN COMMON... ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF 4 FT SEAS COULD OCCUR
ESPECIALLY AT 20 NM AND BEYOND. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT
ANY TIME LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY
ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS AND WILL CREATE LOCALIZED HAZARDS...PERHAPS
INCLUDING WATERSPOUTS PARTICULARLY THU/FRI/SAT MORNINGS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
FOR THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE PREDICTED TIDE IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR IS 6.3 FEET AND TIDAL DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN
RUNNING SOLIDLY AROUND 1 FOOT TODAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A HIGH
TIDE IN THE 7.1-7.3 FEET MLLW RANGE. AT FORT PULASKI...THE
PREDICTED TIDE IS 8.0 FEET AND TIDAL DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN LESS
THAN 1 FOOT FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HIGH TIDE AT FORT PULASKI WILL
LIKELY PEAK AT OR JUST ABOVE 9 FEET...JUST BELOW THE 9.2 FEET MLLW
THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING. ONSHORE WINDS HAVE ALSO
BEEN STRONGER...IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE...ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE AND FULL MOON
CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT AT
TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BSH/RJB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291950
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
350 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION UNTIL A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY RETURNING BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BASED ON CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LINING UP
ACROSS AN AREA WELL WEST OF I-95 AS ANTICIPATED. THE CUMULUS FIELD
TO THE EAST IS QUITE MUTED AND THIS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY LI FIELDS
ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS WHICH RANGE FROM AROUND -7 C ACROSS SOUTH
GEORGIA TO ONLY -2 OR -3 C ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY REGION. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE WEAK AND DCAPE VALUES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST.
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW FOR EVEN THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER TILL JUST
AFTER SUNSET BUT THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY AND POP-FREE.
THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE LOW RESULTING IN A TRANQUIL NIGHT. THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ISN/T EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO CARRY IN THE
FORECAST. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST
WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. BEST RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO BE INLAND CLOSER TO THE FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY OF THE PULSE
VARIETY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN HAZARDS. HIGHS
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 90S INLAND AWAY FROM THE
COOLER COASTAL AREAS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST SC/GA.

FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE NEAR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST SC/GA TO START THE DAY BEFORE DISSIPATING AS DAYTIME
HEATING COMMENCES. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY EVENING. LIGHT LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND DEEP
MOISTURE COULD YIELD A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING. HIGHS LOOK TO BE HELD DOWN A BIT GIVEN
THE INCREASED CLOUD/RAIN COVERAGE BUT SHOULD STILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN
THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT POSSIBLY NOT COMPLETELY AS THE WEAK
FRONT/TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY...THE FORECAST IS A BIT LESS CONFIDENT THIS DAY AS THERE
ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE. THE 12Z/29 NAM12/GFS DO NOT SHOW MUCH
RAIN ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF STILL DOES. FOR NOW WE PREFER TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT...ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH...WEAK
STEERING WINDS AND RESERVOIR OF ABOVE-NORMAL PWATS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED POPS AND A CONTINUING THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/SHORT FUSE FLOODING. LIKELY POPS APPEAR
REASONABLE FOR SATURDAY. THEN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES REGARDING
THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUNDAY-MONDAY. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ALLOWS THE TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STRONGER
AND HOLDS THE TROUGH AXIS AND RICH MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS
DEPICTED BY THE 29/00Z EUROPEAN...ELEVATED POPS/THE ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OR WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES/POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. IF THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A SITE TO BE
IMPACTED...IT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY AT KSAV. THEN OVERNIGHT...SOME
LOW END POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY PREVAILING CEILING/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...ALBEIT A BIT MORESO AT KSAV. INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY...POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS A FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ONSHORE BUT DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FEET...EXCEPT
UP TO 3 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALL OVER
THE REGION...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS... THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND PERIODIC
NOCTURNAL SURGES COULD PUSH WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3
FEET WILL REMAIN COMMON... ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF 4 FT SEAS COULD OCCUR
ESPECIALLY AT 20 NM AND BEYOND. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT
ANY TIME LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY
ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS AND WILL CREATE LOCALIZED HAZARDS...PERHAPS
INCLUDING WATERSPOUTS PARTICULARLY THU/FRI/SAT MORNINGS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
FOR THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE PREDICTED TIDE IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR IS 6.3 FEET AND TIDAL DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN
RUNNING SOLIDLY AROUND 1 FOOT TODAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A HIGH
TIDE IN THE 7.1-7.3 FEET MLLW RANGE. AT FORT PULASKI...THE
PREDICTED TIDE IS 8.0 FEET AND TIDAL DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN LESS
THAN 1 FOOT FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HIGH TIDE AT FORT PULASKI WILL
LIKELY PEAK AT OR JUST ABOVE 9 FEET...JUST BELOW THE 9.2 FEET MLLW
THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING. ONSHORE WINDS HAVE ALSO
BEEN STRONGER...IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE...ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE AND FULL MOON
CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT AT
TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BSH/RJB



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KFFC 291941
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
341 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA STILL REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON HAS
AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTION SO FAR HAS REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT WITH CAPE
VALUES UP TO 2500 J/KG ANALYZED IN PARTS OF THE AREA CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE EVENING.

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY AND
PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GENERALLY FROM THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AND SOUTHWARD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS BEHIND THIS FRONT BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

ADDITIONALLY...A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM THIS
EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO
SWAINSBORO LINE FOR HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105 TO 108 DEGREES. AT
THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
TOMORROW AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER RESULTING FROM CONVECTION WILL
HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW 105...EVEN IN CENTRAL GEORGIA.

RW

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT STALLING OVER SOUTH GA ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND IN CENTRAL GA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS SUGGESTS
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GREATER RAIN
CHANCES FOR CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA...AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39/16

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE AIRFIELD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT AND FAVOR A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT
EXCEPT NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY TURN NORTHEAST BY
TOMORROW MORNING BUT LOOK TO RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THURS
AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON WINDS AND HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          75  94  73  92 /  30  40  30  30
ATLANTA         77  93  74  90 /  30  40  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     68  87  64  87 /  30  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    74  92  69  90 /  30  40  20  20
COLUMBUS        77  95  76  93 /  30  50  40  40
GAINESVILLE     75  91  72  89 /  30  40  20  20
MACON           75  94  75  94 /  30  50  40  40
ROME            74  93  69  91 /  30  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  74  93  72  91 /  30  40  30  30
VIDALIA         74  94  76  93 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291941
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
341 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA STILL REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON HAS
AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTION SO FAR HAS REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT WITH CAPE
VALUES UP TO 2500 J/KG ANALYZED IN PARTS OF THE AREA CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE EVENING.

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY AND
PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GENERALLY FROM THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AND SOUTHWARD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS BEHIND THIS FRONT BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

ADDITIONALLY...A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM THIS
EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO
SWAINSBORO LINE FOR HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105 TO 108 DEGREES. AT
THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
TOMORROW AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER RESULTING FROM CONVECTION WILL
HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW 105...EVEN IN CENTRAL GEORGIA.

RW

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT STALLING OVER SOUTH GA ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND IN CENTRAL GA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS SUGGESTS
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GREATER RAIN
CHANCES FOR CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA...AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39/16

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE AIRFIELD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT AND FAVOR A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT
EXCEPT NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY TURN NORTHEAST BY
TOMORROW MORNING BUT LOOK TO RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THURS
AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON WINDS AND HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          75  94  73  92 /  30  40  30  30
ATLANTA         77  93  74  90 /  30  40  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     68  87  64  87 /  30  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    74  92  69  90 /  30  40  20  20
COLUMBUS        77  95  76  93 /  30  50  40  40
GAINESVILLE     75  91  72  89 /  30  40  20  20
MACON           75  94  75  94 /  30  50  40  40
ROME            74  93  69  91 /  30  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  74  93  72  91 /  30  40  30  30
VIDALIA         74  94  76  93 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291941
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
341 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA STILL REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON HAS
AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTION SO FAR HAS REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT WITH CAPE
VALUES UP TO 2500 J/KG ANALYZED IN PARTS OF THE AREA CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE EVENING.

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY AND
PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GENERALLY FROM THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AND SOUTHWARD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS BEHIND THIS FRONT BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

ADDITIONALLY...A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM THIS
EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO
SWAINSBORO LINE FOR HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105 TO 108 DEGREES. AT
THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
TOMORROW AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER RESULTING FROM CONVECTION WILL
HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW 105...EVEN IN CENTRAL GEORGIA.

RW

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT STALLING OVER SOUTH GA ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND IN CENTRAL GA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS SUGGESTS
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GREATER RAIN
CHANCES FOR CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA...AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39/16

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE AIRFIELD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT AND FAVOR A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT
EXCEPT NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY TURN NORTHEAST BY
TOMORROW MORNING BUT LOOK TO RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THURS
AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON WINDS AND HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          75  94  73  92 /  30  40  30  30
ATLANTA         77  93  74  90 /  30  40  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     68  87  64  87 /  30  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    74  92  69  90 /  30  40  20  20
COLUMBUS        77  95  76  93 /  30  50  40  40
GAINESVILLE     75  91  72  89 /  30  40  20  20
MACON           75  94  75  94 /  30  50  40  40
ROME            74  93  69  91 /  30  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  74  93  72  91 /  30  40  30  30
VIDALIA         74  94  76  93 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291941
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
341 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA STILL REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON HAS
AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTION SO FAR HAS REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT WITH CAPE
VALUES UP TO 2500 J/KG ANALYZED IN PARTS OF THE AREA CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE EVENING.

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY AND
PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GENERALLY FROM THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AND SOUTHWARD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS BEHIND THIS FRONT BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

ADDITIONALLY...A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM THIS
EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO
SWAINSBORO LINE FOR HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105 TO 108 DEGREES. AT
THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
TOMORROW AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER RESULTING FROM CONVECTION WILL
HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW 105...EVEN IN CENTRAL GEORGIA.

RW

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT STALLING OVER SOUTH GA ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND IN CENTRAL GA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS SUGGESTS
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GREATER RAIN
CHANCES FOR CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA...AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39/16

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE AIRFIELD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT AND FAVOR A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT
EXCEPT NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY TURN NORTHEAST BY
TOMORROW MORNING BUT LOOK TO RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THURS
AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON WINDS AND HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          75  94  73  92 /  30  40  30  30
ATLANTA         77  93  74  90 /  30  40  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     68  87  64  87 /  30  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    74  92  69  90 /  30  40  20  20
COLUMBUS        77  95  76  93 /  30  50  40  40
GAINESVILLE     75  91  72  89 /  30  40  20  20
MACON           75  94  75  94 /  30  50  40  40
ROME            74  93  69  91 /  30  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  74  93  72  91 /  30  40  30  30
VIDALIA         74  94  76  93 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...RW



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCAE 291823
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
223 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA WITH RESULTING WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
REGIONAL RADAR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY ALONG THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS. HI-RESOLUTION MODELS
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS
KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE WEST AND SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR EAST. PWAT
VALUES SOUTH AND WEST ARE JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES THUS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. AIR MASS IS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -2 TO -6. HAVE
CONTINUED MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PULL A LITTLE
FARTHER EASTWARD ALLOWING THE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. ECMWF IS ABOUT
6HRS SLOWER THEN THE NAM OR GFS. HAVE TRENDED WITH THE NAM/GFS IN
LOWERING POPS THIS PERIOD. NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
90-95 AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL AN ISSUE AS THE
GFS MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT
TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF STALLS THE
FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OF OUR FA. GULF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. TOOK A BLEND OF MOS
OUTPUT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTIES
SO WILL KEEP DAY TIME TEMPS IN THE MID 90...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
70S WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

18Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MAINLY
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCLUDE VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20/02Z AND HAVE ADDED
TEMPO GROUPS AT AGS/DNL TO HANDLE THE STORMS CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THOSE SITES. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
30/06Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
RESTRICTIONS IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291823
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
223 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA WITH RESULTING WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
REGIONAL RADAR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY ALONG THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS. HI-RESOLUTION MODELS
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS
KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE WEST AND SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR EAST. PWAT
VALUES SOUTH AND WEST ARE JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES THUS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. AIR MASS IS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -2 TO -6. HAVE
CONTINUED MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PULL A LITTLE
FARTHER EASTWARD ALLOWING THE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. ECMWF IS ABOUT
6HRS SLOWER THEN THE NAM OR GFS. HAVE TRENDED WITH THE NAM/GFS IN
LOWERING POPS THIS PERIOD. NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
90-95 AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL AN ISSUE AS THE
GFS MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT
TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF STALLS THE
FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OF OUR FA. GULF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. TOOK A BLEND OF MOS
OUTPUT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTIES
SO WILL KEEP DAY TIME TEMPS IN THE MID 90...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
70S WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

18Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MAINLY
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCLUDE VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20/02Z AND HAVE ADDED
TEMPO GROUPS AT AGS/DNL TO HANDLE THE STORMS CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THOSE SITES. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
30/06Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
RESTRICTIONS IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291823
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
223 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA WITH RESULTING WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
REGIONAL RADAR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY ALONG THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS. HI-RESOLUTION MODELS
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS
KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE WEST AND SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR EAST. PWAT
VALUES SOUTH AND WEST ARE JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES THUS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. AIR MASS IS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -2 TO -6. HAVE
CONTINUED MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PULL A LITTLE
FARTHER EASTWARD ALLOWING THE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. ECMWF IS ABOUT
6HRS SLOWER THEN THE NAM OR GFS. HAVE TRENDED WITH THE NAM/GFS IN
LOWERING POPS THIS PERIOD. NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
90-95 AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL AN ISSUE AS THE
GFS MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT
TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF STALLS THE
FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OF OUR FA. GULF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. TOOK A BLEND OF MOS
OUTPUT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTIES
SO WILL KEEP DAY TIME TEMPS IN THE MID 90...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
70S WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

18Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MAINLY
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCLUDE VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20/02Z AND HAVE ADDED
TEMPO GROUPS AT AGS/DNL TO HANDLE THE STORMS CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THOSE SITES. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
30/06Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
RESTRICTIONS IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291823
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
223 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA WITH RESULTING WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
REGIONAL RADAR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY ALONG THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS. HI-RESOLUTION MODELS
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS
KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE WEST AND SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR EAST. PWAT
VALUES SOUTH AND WEST ARE JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES THUS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. AIR MASS IS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -2 TO -6. HAVE
CONTINUED MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PULL A LITTLE
FARTHER EASTWARD ALLOWING THE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. ECMWF IS ABOUT
6HRS SLOWER THEN THE NAM OR GFS. HAVE TRENDED WITH THE NAM/GFS IN
LOWERING POPS THIS PERIOD. NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
90-95 AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL AN ISSUE AS THE
GFS MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT
TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF STALLS THE
FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OF OUR FA. GULF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. TOOK A BLEND OF MOS
OUTPUT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTIES
SO WILL KEEP DAY TIME TEMPS IN THE MID 90...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
70S WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

18Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MAINLY
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCLUDE VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20/02Z AND HAVE ADDED
TEMPO GROUPS AT AGS/DNL TO HANDLE THE STORMS CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THOSE SITES. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
30/06Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
RESTRICTIONS IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291823
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
223 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA WITH RESULTING WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
REGIONAL RADAR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY ALONG THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS. HI-RESOLUTION MODELS
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS
KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE WEST AND SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR EAST. PWAT
VALUES SOUTH AND WEST ARE JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES THUS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. AIR MASS IS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -2 TO -6. HAVE
CONTINUED MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PULL A LITTLE
FARTHER EASTWARD ALLOWING THE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. ECMWF IS ABOUT
6HRS SLOWER THEN THE NAM OR GFS. HAVE TRENDED WITH THE NAM/GFS IN
LOWERING POPS THIS PERIOD. NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
90-95 AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL AN ISSUE AS THE
GFS MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT
TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF STALLS THE
FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OF OUR FA. GULF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. TOOK A BLEND OF MOS
OUTPUT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTIES
SO WILL KEEP DAY TIME TEMPS IN THE MID 90...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
70S WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

18Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MAINLY
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCLUDE VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20/02Z AND HAVE ADDED
TEMPO GROUPS AT AGS/DNL TO HANDLE THE STORMS CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THOSE SITES. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
30/06Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
RESTRICTIONS IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291809
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
209 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA WITH RESULTING WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
REGIONAL RADAR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY ALONG THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS. HI-RESOLUTION MODELS
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS
KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE WEST AND SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR EAST. PWAT
VALUES SOUTH AND WEST ARE JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES THUS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. AIR MASS IS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -2 TO -6. HAVE
CONTINUED MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS
WITH GFS/NAM FOCUS CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE PIEDMONT. ECMWF/SREF SUGGEST FRONT BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSER TO THE MIDLANDS. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST AND LOWER POPS WEST
FRIDAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS APPEARS TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY
STALLING IT TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO
STALL THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE
ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

18Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MAINLY
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCLUDE VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20/02Z AND HAVE ADDED
TEMPO GROUPS AT AGS/DNL TO HANDLE THE STORMS CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THOSE SITES. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
30/06Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
RESTRICTIONS IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KFFC 291743
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
143 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WELL AS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH EASTERN ALABAMA. FORECAST GRIDS ALREADY REFLECT THIS
ACTIVITY WELL...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM MIDDAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...HEAT ADVISORY STILL WILL
BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT 1300 EDT GENERALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING AN
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO ALL SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA. NOT SURE HOW STRONG OR EFFECTIVE THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...SO ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105
ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE.

20

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT
HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GA OR NORTH FL BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS SUGGEST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY... THEN MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA... AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE AIRFIELD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT AND FAVOR A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT
EXCEPT NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY TURN NORTHEAST BY
TOMORROW MORNING BUT LOOK TO RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THURS
AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON WINDS AND HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  92  75 /  40  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     87  69  89  66 /  40  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  76  95  76 /  40  30  50  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           95  74  94  76 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  92  74 /  40  30  50  30
VIDALIA         95  75  96  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291743
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
143 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WELL AS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH EASTERN ALABAMA. FORECAST GRIDS ALREADY REFLECT THIS
ACTIVITY WELL...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM MIDDAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...HEAT ADVISORY STILL WILL
BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT 1300 EDT GENERALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING AN
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO ALL SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA. NOT SURE HOW STRONG OR EFFECTIVE THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...SO ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105
ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE.

20

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT
HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GA OR NORTH FL BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS SUGGEST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY... THEN MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA... AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE AIRFIELD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT AND FAVOR A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT
EXCEPT NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY TURN NORTHEAST BY
TOMORROW MORNING BUT LOOK TO RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THURS
AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON WINDS AND HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  92  75 /  40  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     87  69  89  66 /  40  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  76  95  76 /  40  30  50  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           95  74  94  76 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  92  74 /  40  30  50  30
VIDALIA         95  75  96  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...RW



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291731
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
131 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND
WILL STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS DIMINISHED BUT WE SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY FIRE UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ALBEIT WEAK. THE
CUMULUS FIELD IS QUITE MUTED THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO...LENDING
MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST OF NO SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO MID EVENING
INLAND ZONES WEST OF I-95 BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND
STRATUS...MAINLY OVER INLAND ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN EAST-WEST MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION. THUS...AFTERNOON POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR
THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND...HIGHEST ALONG/WEST OF I-95. MODELS
DEPICT LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INLAND INSTABILITY. THUS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...UNLESS A STRONGER
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WHICH DEVELOPS INLAND CLIPS FAR
INLAND COUNTIES. OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS/BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S SHOULD BECOME COMMON AWAY FROM
THE COAST...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD PEAK IN THE 100-105F RANGE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...INLAND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE. HOWEVER...TO VARYING DEGREES GUIDANCE DEPICTS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THUS...MAINTAINED ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION AND
WILL STALL. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND WILL FOCUS A POOL OF PWATS EXCEEDING 2
INCHES...1-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...OVER THE AREA. THIS
REGIME WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION FEATURING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED.

THE POTENTIAL FOR PULSE SEVERE WEATHER COULD ACTUALLY BE GREATEST AS
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OF
GREATER CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL
SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND ERRATIC STORM PROPAGATION...AND THE
PROBABILITY FOR LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL INCREASE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES COULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY. THEN...HELD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90F
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 80S AT MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT...ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH...WEAK
STEERING WINDS AND RESERVOIR OF ABOVE-NORMAL PWATS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED POPS AND A CONTINUING THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/SHORT FUSE FLOODING. LIKELY POPS APPEAR
REASONABLE FOR SATURDAY. THEN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES REGARDING
THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUNDAY-MONDAY. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ALLOWS THE TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STRONGER
AND HOLDS THE TROUGH AXIS AND RICH MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS
DEPICTED BY THE 29/00Z EUROPEAN...ELEVATED POPS/THE ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OR WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES/POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. IF THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A SITE TO BE
IMPACTED...IT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY AT KSAV. THEN OVERNIGHT...SOME
LOW END POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY PREVAILING CEILING/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY PERSIST WITH SPEEDS MAINLY
IN THE 10 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENTS OF
10-15 KT ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM
OFFSHORE.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALL OVER THE REGION...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND PERIODIC NOCTURNAL SURGES COULD PUSH
WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET WILL REMAIN COMMON...
ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF 4 FT SEAS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT ANY TIME LATE WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS
AND WILL CREATE LOCALIZED HAZARDS...PERHAPS INCLUDING WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
AND FULL MOON CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED AROUND HIGH
TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291731
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
131 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND
WILL STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS DIMINISHED BUT WE SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY FIRE UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ALBEIT WEAK. THE
CUMULUS FIELD IS QUITE MUTED THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO...LENDING
MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST OF NO SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO MID EVENING
INLAND ZONES WEST OF I-95 BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND
STRATUS...MAINLY OVER INLAND ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN EAST-WEST MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION. THUS...AFTERNOON POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR
THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND...HIGHEST ALONG/WEST OF I-95. MODELS
DEPICT LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INLAND INSTABILITY. THUS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...UNLESS A STRONGER
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WHICH DEVELOPS INLAND CLIPS FAR
INLAND COUNTIES. OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS/BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S SHOULD BECOME COMMON AWAY FROM
THE COAST...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD PEAK IN THE 100-105F RANGE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...INLAND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE. HOWEVER...TO VARYING DEGREES GUIDANCE DEPICTS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THUS...MAINTAINED ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION AND
WILL STALL. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND WILL FOCUS A POOL OF PWATS EXCEEDING 2
INCHES...1-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...OVER THE AREA. THIS
REGIME WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION FEATURING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED.

THE POTENTIAL FOR PULSE SEVERE WEATHER COULD ACTUALLY BE GREATEST AS
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OF
GREATER CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL
SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND ERRATIC STORM PROPAGATION...AND THE
PROBABILITY FOR LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL INCREASE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES COULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY. THEN...HELD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90F
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 80S AT MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT...ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH...WEAK
STEERING WINDS AND RESERVOIR OF ABOVE-NORMAL PWATS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED POPS AND A CONTINUING THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/SHORT FUSE FLOODING. LIKELY POPS APPEAR
REASONABLE FOR SATURDAY. THEN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES REGARDING
THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUNDAY-MONDAY. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ALLOWS THE TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STRONGER
AND HOLDS THE TROUGH AXIS AND RICH MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS
DEPICTED BY THE 29/00Z EUROPEAN...ELEVATED POPS/THE ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OR WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES/POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. IF THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A SITE TO BE
IMPACTED...IT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY AT KSAV. THEN OVERNIGHT...SOME
LOW END POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY PREVAILING CEILING/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY PERSIST WITH SPEEDS MAINLY
IN THE 10 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENTS OF
10-15 KT ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM
OFFSHORE.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALL OVER THE REGION...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND PERIODIC NOCTURNAL SURGES COULD PUSH
WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET WILL REMAIN COMMON...
ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF 4 FT SEAS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT ANY TIME LATE WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS
AND WILL CREATE LOCALIZED HAZARDS...PERHAPS INCLUDING WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
AND FULL MOON CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED AROUND HIGH
TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291731
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
131 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND
WILL STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS DIMINISHED BUT WE SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY FIRE UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ALBEIT WEAK. THE
CUMULUS FIELD IS QUITE MUTED THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO...LENDING
MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST OF NO SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO MID EVENING
INLAND ZONES WEST OF I-95 BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND
STRATUS...MAINLY OVER INLAND ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN EAST-WEST MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION. THUS...AFTERNOON POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR
THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND...HIGHEST ALONG/WEST OF I-95. MODELS
DEPICT LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INLAND INSTABILITY. THUS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...UNLESS A STRONGER
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WHICH DEVELOPS INLAND CLIPS FAR
INLAND COUNTIES. OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS/BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S SHOULD BECOME COMMON AWAY FROM
THE COAST...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD PEAK IN THE 100-105F RANGE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...INLAND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE. HOWEVER...TO VARYING DEGREES GUIDANCE DEPICTS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THUS...MAINTAINED ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION AND
WILL STALL. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND WILL FOCUS A POOL OF PWATS EXCEEDING 2
INCHES...1-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...OVER THE AREA. THIS
REGIME WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION FEATURING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED.

THE POTENTIAL FOR PULSE SEVERE WEATHER COULD ACTUALLY BE GREATEST AS
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OF
GREATER CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL
SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND ERRATIC STORM PROPAGATION...AND THE
PROBABILITY FOR LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL INCREASE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES COULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY. THEN...HELD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90F
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 80S AT MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT...ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH...WEAK
STEERING WINDS AND RESERVOIR OF ABOVE-NORMAL PWATS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED POPS AND A CONTINUING THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/SHORT FUSE FLOODING. LIKELY POPS APPEAR
REASONABLE FOR SATURDAY. THEN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES REGARDING
THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUNDAY-MONDAY. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ALLOWS THE TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STRONGER
AND HOLDS THE TROUGH AXIS AND RICH MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS
DEPICTED BY THE 29/00Z EUROPEAN...ELEVATED POPS/THE ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OR WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES/POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. IF THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A SITE TO BE
IMPACTED...IT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY AT KSAV. THEN OVERNIGHT...SOME
LOW END POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY PREVAILING CEILING/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY PERSIST WITH SPEEDS MAINLY
IN THE 10 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENTS OF
10-15 KT ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM
OFFSHORE.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALL OVER THE REGION...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND PERIODIC NOCTURNAL SURGES COULD PUSH
WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET WILL REMAIN COMMON...
ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF 4 FT SEAS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT ANY TIME LATE WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS
AND WILL CREATE LOCALIZED HAZARDS...PERHAPS INCLUDING WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
AND FULL MOON CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED AROUND HIGH
TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291731
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
131 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND
WILL STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS DIMINISHED BUT WE SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY FIRE UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ALBEIT WEAK. THE
CUMULUS FIELD IS QUITE MUTED THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO...LENDING
MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST OF NO SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO MID EVENING
INLAND ZONES WEST OF I-95 BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND
STRATUS...MAINLY OVER INLAND ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN EAST-WEST MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION. THUS...AFTERNOON POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR
THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND...HIGHEST ALONG/WEST OF I-95. MODELS
DEPICT LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INLAND INSTABILITY. THUS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...UNLESS A STRONGER
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WHICH DEVELOPS INLAND CLIPS FAR
INLAND COUNTIES. OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS/BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S SHOULD BECOME COMMON AWAY FROM
THE COAST...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD PEAK IN THE 100-105F RANGE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...INLAND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE. HOWEVER...TO VARYING DEGREES GUIDANCE DEPICTS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THUS...MAINTAINED ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION AND
WILL STALL. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND WILL FOCUS A POOL OF PWATS EXCEEDING 2
INCHES...1-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...OVER THE AREA. THIS
REGIME WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION FEATURING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED.

THE POTENTIAL FOR PULSE SEVERE WEATHER COULD ACTUALLY BE GREATEST AS
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OF
GREATER CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL
SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND ERRATIC STORM PROPAGATION...AND THE
PROBABILITY FOR LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL INCREASE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES COULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY. THEN...HELD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90F
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 80S AT MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT...ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH...WEAK
STEERING WINDS AND RESERVOIR OF ABOVE-NORMAL PWATS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED POPS AND A CONTINUING THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/SHORT FUSE FLOODING. LIKELY POPS APPEAR
REASONABLE FOR SATURDAY. THEN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES REGARDING
THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUNDAY-MONDAY. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ALLOWS THE TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STRONGER
AND HOLDS THE TROUGH AXIS AND RICH MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS
DEPICTED BY THE 29/00Z EUROPEAN...ELEVATED POPS/THE ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OR WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES/POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. IF THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A SITE TO BE
IMPACTED...IT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY AT KSAV. THEN OVERNIGHT...SOME
LOW END POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY PREVAILING CEILING/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY PERSIST WITH SPEEDS MAINLY
IN THE 10 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENTS OF
10-15 KT ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM
OFFSHORE.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALL OVER THE REGION...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND PERIODIC NOCTURNAL SURGES COULD PUSH
WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET WILL REMAIN COMMON...
ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF 4 FT SEAS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT ANY TIME LATE WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS
AND WILL CREATE LOCALIZED HAZARDS...PERHAPS INCLUDING WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
AND FULL MOON CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED AROUND HIGH
TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291450
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1050 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND
WILL STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...ALOFT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED
IN THE NORTHERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW BETWEEN THE EXPANSIVE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A BROAD UPPER LOW WELL TO THE EAST. THE
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK WITHIN A RATHER ILL-
DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE MAIN SURFACE LOWS ARE WELL
OFFSHORE...AS SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER WEAK LOW INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
ONGOING WELL TO THE WEST MAINLY IMPACTING JENKINS COUNTY AT THE
MOMENT. BASED ON THE SPREAD OF MODEL RUNS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TAKE
PLACE WELL WEST OF I-95 TODAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE CAP
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY...AND THAT SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE MINIMAL AT BEST. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS QUITE
MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGHS LOOK ON TRACK
FOR THE LOW TO MID 90S EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO MID EVENING
INLAND ZONES WEST OF I-95 BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND
STRATUS...MAINLY OVER INLAND ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN EAST-WEST MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION. THUS...AFTERNOON POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR
THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND...HIGHEST ALONG/WEST OF I-95. MODELS
DEPICT LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INLAND INSTABILITY. THUS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...UNLESS A STRONGER
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WHICH DEVELOPS INLAND CLIPS FAR
INLAND COUNTIES. OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS/BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S SHOULD BECOME COMMON AWAY FROM
THE COAST...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD PEAK IN THE 100-105F RANGE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...INLAND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE. HOWEVER...TO VARYING DEGREES GUIDANCE DEPICTS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THUS...MAINTAINED ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION AND
WILL STALL. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND WILL FOCUS A POOL OF PWATS EXCEEDING 2
INCHES...1-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...OVER THE AREA. THIS
REGIME WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION FEATURING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED.

THE POTENTIAL FOR PULSE SEVERE WEATHER COULD ACTUALLY BE GREATEST AS
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OF
GREATER CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL
SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND ERRATIC STORM PROPAGATION...AND THE
PROBABILITY FOR LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL INCREASE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES COULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY. THEN...HELD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90F
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 80S AT MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT...ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH...WEAK
STEERING WINDS AND RESERVOIR OF ABOVE-NORMAL PWATS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED POPS AND A CONTINUING THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/SHORT FUSE FLOODING. LIKELY POPS APPEAR
REASONABLE FOR SATURDAY. THEN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES REGARDING
THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUNDAY-MONDAY. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ALLOWS THE TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STRONGER
AND HOLDS THE TROUGH AXIS AND RICH MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS
DEPICTED BY THE 29/00Z EUROPEAN...ELEVATED POPS/THE ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OR WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES/POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT AT
BOTH KSAV/KCHS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE
TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT FOG IS FAIRLY UNLIKELY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY PERSIST WITH SPEEDS MAINLY
IN THE 10 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENTS OF
10-15 KT ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM
OFFSHORE.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALL OVER THE REGION...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND PERIODIC NOCTURNAL SURGES COULD PUSH
WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET WILL REMAIN COMMON...
ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF 4 FT SEAS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT ANY TIME LATE WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS
AND WILL CREATE LOCALIZED HAZARDS...PERHAPS INCLUDING WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
AND FULL MOON CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED AROUND HIGH
TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291450
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1050 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND
WILL STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...ALOFT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED
IN THE NORTHERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW BETWEEN THE EXPANSIVE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A BROAD UPPER LOW WELL TO THE EAST. THE
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK WITHIN A RATHER ILL-
DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE MAIN SURFACE LOWS ARE WELL
OFFSHORE...AS SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER WEAK LOW INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
ONGOING WELL TO THE WEST MAINLY IMPACTING JENKINS COUNTY AT THE
MOMENT. BASED ON THE SPREAD OF MODEL RUNS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TAKE
PLACE WELL WEST OF I-95 TODAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE CAP
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY...AND THAT SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE MINIMAL AT BEST. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS QUITE
MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGHS LOOK ON TRACK
FOR THE LOW TO MID 90S EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO MID EVENING
INLAND ZONES WEST OF I-95 BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND
STRATUS...MAINLY OVER INLAND ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN EAST-WEST MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION. THUS...AFTERNOON POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR
THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND...HIGHEST ALONG/WEST OF I-95. MODELS
DEPICT LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INLAND INSTABILITY. THUS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...UNLESS A STRONGER
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WHICH DEVELOPS INLAND CLIPS FAR
INLAND COUNTIES. OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS/BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S SHOULD BECOME COMMON AWAY FROM
THE COAST...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD PEAK IN THE 100-105F RANGE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...INLAND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE. HOWEVER...TO VARYING DEGREES GUIDANCE DEPICTS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THUS...MAINTAINED ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION AND
WILL STALL. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND WILL FOCUS A POOL OF PWATS EXCEEDING 2
INCHES...1-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...OVER THE AREA. THIS
REGIME WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION FEATURING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED.

THE POTENTIAL FOR PULSE SEVERE WEATHER COULD ACTUALLY BE GREATEST AS
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OF
GREATER CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL
SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND ERRATIC STORM PROPAGATION...AND THE
PROBABILITY FOR LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL INCREASE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES COULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY. THEN...HELD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90F
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 80S AT MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT...ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH...WEAK
STEERING WINDS AND RESERVOIR OF ABOVE-NORMAL PWATS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED POPS AND A CONTINUING THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/SHORT FUSE FLOODING. LIKELY POPS APPEAR
REASONABLE FOR SATURDAY. THEN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES REGARDING
THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUNDAY-MONDAY. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ALLOWS THE TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STRONGER
AND HOLDS THE TROUGH AXIS AND RICH MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS
DEPICTED BY THE 29/00Z EUROPEAN...ELEVATED POPS/THE ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OR WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES/POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT AT
BOTH KSAV/KCHS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE
TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT FOG IS FAIRLY UNLIKELY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY PERSIST WITH SPEEDS MAINLY
IN THE 10 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENTS OF
10-15 KT ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM
OFFSHORE.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALL OVER THE REGION...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND PERIODIC NOCTURNAL SURGES COULD PUSH
WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET WILL REMAIN COMMON...
ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF 4 FT SEAS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT ANY TIME LATE WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS
AND WILL CREATE LOCALIZED HAZARDS...PERHAPS INCLUDING WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
AND FULL MOON CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED AROUND HIGH
TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291450
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1050 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND
WILL STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...ALOFT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED
IN THE NORTHERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW BETWEEN THE EXPANSIVE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A BROAD UPPER LOW WELL TO THE EAST. THE
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK WITHIN A RATHER ILL-
DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE MAIN SURFACE LOWS ARE WELL
OFFSHORE...AS SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER WEAK LOW INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
ONGOING WELL TO THE WEST MAINLY IMPACTING JENKINS COUNTY AT THE
MOMENT. BASED ON THE SPREAD OF MODEL RUNS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TAKE
PLACE WELL WEST OF I-95 TODAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE CAP
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY...AND THAT SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE MINIMAL AT BEST. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS QUITE
MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGHS LOOK ON TRACK
FOR THE LOW TO MID 90S EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO MID EVENING
INLAND ZONES WEST OF I-95 BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND
STRATUS...MAINLY OVER INLAND ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN EAST-WEST MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION. THUS...AFTERNOON POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR
THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND...HIGHEST ALONG/WEST OF I-95. MODELS
DEPICT LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INLAND INSTABILITY. THUS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...UNLESS A STRONGER
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WHICH DEVELOPS INLAND CLIPS FAR
INLAND COUNTIES. OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS/BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S SHOULD BECOME COMMON AWAY FROM
THE COAST...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD PEAK IN THE 100-105F RANGE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...INLAND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE. HOWEVER...TO VARYING DEGREES GUIDANCE DEPICTS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THUS...MAINTAINED ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION AND
WILL STALL. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND WILL FOCUS A POOL OF PWATS EXCEEDING 2
INCHES...1-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...OVER THE AREA. THIS
REGIME WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION FEATURING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED.

THE POTENTIAL FOR PULSE SEVERE WEATHER COULD ACTUALLY BE GREATEST AS
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OF
GREATER CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL
SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND ERRATIC STORM PROPAGATION...AND THE
PROBABILITY FOR LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL INCREASE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES COULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY. THEN...HELD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90F
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 80S AT MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT...ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH...WEAK
STEERING WINDS AND RESERVOIR OF ABOVE-NORMAL PWATS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED POPS AND A CONTINUING THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/SHORT FUSE FLOODING. LIKELY POPS APPEAR
REASONABLE FOR SATURDAY. THEN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES REGARDING
THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUNDAY-MONDAY. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ALLOWS THE TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STRONGER
AND HOLDS THE TROUGH AXIS AND RICH MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS
DEPICTED BY THE 29/00Z EUROPEAN...ELEVATED POPS/THE ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OR WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES/POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT AT
BOTH KSAV/KCHS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE
TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT FOG IS FAIRLY UNLIKELY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY PERSIST WITH SPEEDS MAINLY
IN THE 10 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENTS OF
10-15 KT ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM
OFFSHORE.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALL OVER THE REGION...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND PERIODIC NOCTURNAL SURGES COULD PUSH
WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET WILL REMAIN COMMON...
ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF 4 FT SEAS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT ANY TIME LATE WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS
AND WILL CREATE LOCALIZED HAZARDS...PERHAPS INCLUDING WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
AND FULL MOON CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED AROUND HIGH
TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291450
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1050 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND
WILL STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...ALOFT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED
IN THE NORTHERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW BETWEEN THE EXPANSIVE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A BROAD UPPER LOW WELL TO THE EAST. THE
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK WITHIN A RATHER ILL-
DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE MAIN SURFACE LOWS ARE WELL
OFFSHORE...AS SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER WEAK LOW INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
ONGOING WELL TO THE WEST MAINLY IMPACTING JENKINS COUNTY AT THE
MOMENT. BASED ON THE SPREAD OF MODEL RUNS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TAKE
PLACE WELL WEST OF I-95 TODAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE CAP
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY...AND THAT SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE MINIMAL AT BEST. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS QUITE
MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGHS LOOK ON TRACK
FOR THE LOW TO MID 90S EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO MID EVENING
INLAND ZONES WEST OF I-95 BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND
STRATUS...MAINLY OVER INLAND ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN EAST-WEST MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION. THUS...AFTERNOON POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR
THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND...HIGHEST ALONG/WEST OF I-95. MODELS
DEPICT LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INLAND INSTABILITY. THUS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...UNLESS A STRONGER
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WHICH DEVELOPS INLAND CLIPS FAR
INLAND COUNTIES. OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS/BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S SHOULD BECOME COMMON AWAY FROM
THE COAST...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD PEAK IN THE 100-105F RANGE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...INLAND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE. HOWEVER...TO VARYING DEGREES GUIDANCE DEPICTS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THUS...MAINTAINED ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION AND
WILL STALL. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND WILL FOCUS A POOL OF PWATS EXCEEDING 2
INCHES...1-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...OVER THE AREA. THIS
REGIME WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION FEATURING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED.

THE POTENTIAL FOR PULSE SEVERE WEATHER COULD ACTUALLY BE GREATEST AS
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OF
GREATER CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL
SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND ERRATIC STORM PROPAGATION...AND THE
PROBABILITY FOR LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL INCREASE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES COULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY. THEN...HELD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90F
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 80S AT MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT...ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH...WEAK
STEERING WINDS AND RESERVOIR OF ABOVE-NORMAL PWATS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED POPS AND A CONTINUING THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/SHORT FUSE FLOODING. LIKELY POPS APPEAR
REASONABLE FOR SATURDAY. THEN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES REGARDING
THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUNDAY-MONDAY. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ALLOWS THE TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STRONGER
AND HOLDS THE TROUGH AXIS AND RICH MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS
DEPICTED BY THE 29/00Z EUROPEAN...ELEVATED POPS/THE ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OR WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES/POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT AT
BOTH KSAV/KCHS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE
TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT FOG IS FAIRLY UNLIKELY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY PERSIST WITH SPEEDS MAINLY
IN THE 10 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENTS OF
10-15 KT ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM
OFFSHORE.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALL OVER THE REGION...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND PERIODIC NOCTURNAL SURGES COULD PUSH
WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET WILL REMAIN COMMON...
ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF 4 FT SEAS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT ANY TIME LATE WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS
AND WILL CREATE LOCALIZED HAZARDS...PERHAPS INCLUDING WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
AND FULL MOON CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED AROUND HIGH
TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KFFC 291432
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1032 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015


.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WELL AS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH EASTERN ALABAMA. FORECAST GRIDS ALREADY REFLECT THIS
ACTIVITY WELL...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM MIDDAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...HEAT ADVISORY STILL WILL
BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT 1300 EDT GENERALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING AN
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO ALL SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA. NOT SURE HOW STRONG OR EFFECTIVE THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...SO ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105
ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE.

20

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT
HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GA OR NORTH FL BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS SUGGEST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY... THEN MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA... AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL
TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY
HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CARRY
TEMPO THUNDER DURING THE 20Z-23Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  92  75 /  40  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     87  69  89  66 /  40  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  76  95  76 /  40  30  50  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           95  74  94  76 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  92  74 /  40  30  50  30
VIDALIA         95  75  96  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291432
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1032 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015


.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WELL AS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH EASTERN ALABAMA. FORECAST GRIDS ALREADY REFLECT THIS
ACTIVITY WELL...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM MIDDAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...HEAT ADVISORY STILL WILL
BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT 1300 EDT GENERALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING AN
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO ALL SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA. NOT SURE HOW STRONG OR EFFECTIVE THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...SO ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105
ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE.

20

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT
HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GA OR NORTH FL BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS SUGGEST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY... THEN MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA... AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL
TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY
HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CARRY
TEMPO THUNDER DURING THE 20Z-23Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  92  75 /  40  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     87  69  89  66 /  40  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  76  95  76 /  40  30  50  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           95  74  94  76 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  92  74 /  40  30  50  30
VIDALIA         95  75  96  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291432
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1032 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015


.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WELL AS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH EASTERN ALABAMA. FORECAST GRIDS ALREADY REFLECT THIS
ACTIVITY WELL...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM MIDDAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...HEAT ADVISORY STILL WILL
BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT 1300 EDT GENERALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING AN
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO ALL SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA. NOT SURE HOW STRONG OR EFFECTIVE THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...SO ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105
ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE.

20

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT
HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GA OR NORTH FL BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS SUGGEST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY... THEN MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA... AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL
TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY
HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CARRY
TEMPO THUNDER DURING THE 20Z-23Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  92  75 /  40  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     87  69  89  66 /  40  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  76  95  76 /  40  30  50  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           95  74  94  76 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  92  74 /  40  30  50  30
VIDALIA         95  75  96  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...RW



000
FXUS62 KFFC 291432
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1032 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015


.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WELL AS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH EASTERN ALABAMA. FORECAST GRIDS ALREADY REFLECT THIS
ACTIVITY WELL...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM MIDDAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...HEAT ADVISORY STILL WILL
BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT 1300 EDT GENERALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING AN
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO ALL SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA. NOT SURE HOW STRONG OR EFFECTIVE THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...SO ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105
ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE.

20

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT
HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GA OR NORTH FL BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS SUGGEST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY... THEN MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA... AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL
TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY
HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CARRY
TEMPO THUNDER DURING THE 20Z-23Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  92  75 /  40  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     87  69  89  66 /  40  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  76  95  76 /  40  30  50  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           95  74  94  76 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  92  74 /  40  30  50  30
VIDALIA         95  75  96  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...RW



000
FXUS62 KCAE 291152
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
752 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA TODAY WITH RESULTING WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE DEE.
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH REGION LATER TODAY ALTHOUGH LIFT APPEARS WEAK. WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE WEST SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS
WITH GFS/NAM FOCUS CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE PIEDMONT. ECMWF/SREF SUGGEST FRONT BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSER TO THE MIDLANDS. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST AND LOWER POPS WEST
FRIDAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS APPEARS TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY
STALLING IT TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO
STALL THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE
ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS FOR ALL TAF
SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20/02Z. SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 30/06Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291152
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
752 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA TODAY WITH RESULTING WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE DEE.
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH REGION LATER TODAY ALTHOUGH LIFT APPEARS WEAK. WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE WEST SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS
WITH GFS/NAM FOCUS CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE PIEDMONT. ECMWF/SREF SUGGEST FRONT BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSER TO THE MIDLANDS. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST AND LOWER POPS WEST
FRIDAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS APPEARS TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY
STALLING IT TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO
STALL THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE
ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS FOR ALL TAF
SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20/02Z. SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 30/06Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291152
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
752 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA TODAY WITH RESULTING WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE DEE.
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH REGION LATER TODAY ALTHOUGH LIFT APPEARS WEAK. WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE WEST SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS
WITH GFS/NAM FOCUS CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE PIEDMONT. ECMWF/SREF SUGGEST FRONT BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSER TO THE MIDLANDS. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST AND LOWER POPS WEST
FRIDAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS APPEARS TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY
STALLING IT TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO
STALL THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE
ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS FOR ALL TAF
SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20/02Z. SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 30/06Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291152
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
752 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA TODAY WITH RESULTING WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE DEE.
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH REGION LATER TODAY ALTHOUGH LIFT APPEARS WEAK. WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE WEST SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS
WITH GFS/NAM FOCUS CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE PIEDMONT. ECMWF/SREF SUGGEST FRONT BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSER TO THE MIDLANDS. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST AND LOWER POPS WEST
FRIDAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS APPEARS TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY
STALLING IT TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO
STALL THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE
ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS FOR ALL TAF
SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20/02Z. SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 30/06Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291145
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
745 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND
WILL STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DISORGANIZED LOW PRES WILL RESIDE OFF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT
AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY ENE OR NE. DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES
ARE MOSTLY SW THROUGH SE OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BUT OUR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA ZONES DO BRUSH THE REGION OF HIGHER
PWATS AND ENHANCED 850 MB TO 500 MB MOISTURE. SINCE THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE EASTERN FLANKS OF AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE...HOT
AND HUMID WEATHER IS ON TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE MID 90S
MANY AREAS WITH HEAT INDICES INLAND GEORGIA ZONES REACHING 105-108
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. POPS CAPPED AT 20/30 PERCENT ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON...ALIGNED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE
GRADIENT. SEASONABLY STRONG THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE COUPLED WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WARM MID LEVELS TO PRODUCE MOSTLY SPOTTY
PULSE CONVECTION UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPS JUST TO OUR W AND SW. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS
COULD CROP UP FROM EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE OKEFENOKEE...A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD BRUSH LOCATIONS SUCH AS METTER AND
REIDSVILLE BUT OVERALL WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF A RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS INLAND GEORGIA.

A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO MID EVENING INLAND ZONES
WEST OF I-95 BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND STRATUS...MAINLY
OVER INLAND ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN EAST-WEST MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION. THUS...AFTERNOON POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR
THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND...HIGHEST ALONG/WEST OF I-95. MODELS
DEPICT LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INLAND INSTABILITY. THUS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...UNLESS A STRONGER
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WHICH DEVELOPS INLAND CLIPS FAR
INLAND COUNTIES. OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS/BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S SHOULD BECOME COMMON AWAY FROM
THE COAST...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD PEAK IN THE 100-105F RANGE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...INLAND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE. HOWEVER...TO VARYING DEGREES GUIDANCE DEPICTS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THUS...MAINTAINED ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION AND
WILL STALL. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND WILL FOCUS A POOL OF PWATS EXCEEDING 2
INCHES...1-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...OVER THE AREA. THIS
REGIME WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION FEATURING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED.

THE POTENTIAL FOR PULSE SEVERE WEATHER COULD ACTUALLY BE GREATEST AS
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OF
GREATER CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL
SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND ERRATIC STORM PROPAGATION...AND THE
PROBABILITY FOR LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL INCREASE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES COULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY. THEN...HELD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90F
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 80S AT MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT...ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH...WEAK
STEERING WINDS AND RESERVOIR OF ABOVE-NORMAL PWATS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED POPS AND A CONTINUING THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/SHORT FUSE FLOODING. LIKELY POPS APPEAR
REASONABLE FOR SATURDAY. THEN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES REGARDING
THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUNDAY-MONDAY. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ALLOWS THE TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STRONGER
AND HOLDS THE TROUGH AXIS AND RICH MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS
DEPICTED BY THE 29/00Z EUROPEAN...ELEVATED POPS/THE ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OR WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES/POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT AT
BOTH KSAV/KCHS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE
TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT FOG IS FAIRLY UNLIKELY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCAL WATERSPOUT CHECKLIST GAVE A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR
WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING. WEB CAMS FROM THE BEACHES INDICATE
FAVORABLE CU LINES/TOWERS. WE HAVE ISSUED A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT ADDRESSING POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING.

WITH THE WEAK LOW PRES WELL OFFSHORE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY
PERSIST WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 10 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
DIURNAL ENHANCEMENTS OF 10-15 KT ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...
HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALL OVER THE REGION...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND PERIODIC NOCTURNAL SURGES COULD PUSH
WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET WILL REMAIN COMMON...
ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF 4 FT SEAS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT ANY TIME LATE WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS
AND WILL CREATE LOCALIZED HAZARDS...PERHAPS INCLUDING WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
AND FULL MOON CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED AROUND HIGH
TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291145
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
745 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND
WILL STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DISORGANIZED LOW PRES WILL RESIDE OFF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT
AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY ENE OR NE. DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES
ARE MOSTLY SW THROUGH SE OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BUT OUR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA ZONES DO BRUSH THE REGION OF HIGHER
PWATS AND ENHANCED 850 MB TO 500 MB MOISTURE. SINCE THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE EASTERN FLANKS OF AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE...HOT
AND HUMID WEATHER IS ON TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE MID 90S
MANY AREAS WITH HEAT INDICES INLAND GEORGIA ZONES REACHING 105-108
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. POPS CAPPED AT 20/30 PERCENT ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON...ALIGNED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE
GRADIENT. SEASONABLY STRONG THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE COUPLED WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WARM MID LEVELS TO PRODUCE MOSTLY SPOTTY
PULSE CONVECTION UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPS JUST TO OUR W AND SW. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS
COULD CROP UP FROM EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE OKEFENOKEE...A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD BRUSH LOCATIONS SUCH AS METTER AND
REIDSVILLE BUT OVERALL WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF A RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS INLAND GEORGIA.

A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO MID EVENING INLAND ZONES
WEST OF I-95 BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND STRATUS...MAINLY
OVER INLAND ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN EAST-WEST MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION. THUS...AFTERNOON POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR
THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND...HIGHEST ALONG/WEST OF I-95. MODELS
DEPICT LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INLAND INSTABILITY. THUS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...UNLESS A STRONGER
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WHICH DEVELOPS INLAND CLIPS FAR
INLAND COUNTIES. OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS/BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S SHOULD BECOME COMMON AWAY FROM
THE COAST...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD PEAK IN THE 100-105F RANGE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...INLAND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE. HOWEVER...TO VARYING DEGREES GUIDANCE DEPICTS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THUS...MAINTAINED ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION AND
WILL STALL. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND WILL FOCUS A POOL OF PWATS EXCEEDING 2
INCHES...1-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...OVER THE AREA. THIS
REGIME WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION FEATURING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED.

THE POTENTIAL FOR PULSE SEVERE WEATHER COULD ACTUALLY BE GREATEST AS
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OF
GREATER CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL
SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND ERRATIC STORM PROPAGATION...AND THE
PROBABILITY FOR LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL INCREASE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES COULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY. THEN...HELD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90F
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 80S AT MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT...ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH...WEAK
STEERING WINDS AND RESERVOIR OF ABOVE-NORMAL PWATS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED POPS AND A CONTINUING THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/SHORT FUSE FLOODING. LIKELY POPS APPEAR
REASONABLE FOR SATURDAY. THEN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES REGARDING
THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUNDAY-MONDAY. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ALLOWS THE TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STRONGER
AND HOLDS THE TROUGH AXIS AND RICH MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS
DEPICTED BY THE 29/00Z EUROPEAN...ELEVATED POPS/THE ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OR WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES/POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT AT
BOTH KSAV/KCHS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE
TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT FOG IS FAIRLY UNLIKELY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCAL WATERSPOUT CHECKLIST GAVE A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR
WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING. WEB CAMS FROM THE BEACHES INDICATE
FAVORABLE CU LINES/TOWERS. WE HAVE ISSUED A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT ADDRESSING POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING.

WITH THE WEAK LOW PRES WELL OFFSHORE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY
PERSIST WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 10 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
DIURNAL ENHANCEMENTS OF 10-15 KT ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...
HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALL OVER THE REGION...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND PERIODIC NOCTURNAL SURGES COULD PUSH
WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET WILL REMAIN COMMON...
ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF 4 FT SEAS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT ANY TIME LATE WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS
AND WILL CREATE LOCALIZED HAZARDS...PERHAPS INCLUDING WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
AND FULL MOON CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED AROUND HIGH
TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291145
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
745 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND
WILL STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DISORGANIZED LOW PRES WILL RESIDE OFF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT
AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY ENE OR NE. DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES
ARE MOSTLY SW THROUGH SE OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BUT OUR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA ZONES DO BRUSH THE REGION OF HIGHER
PWATS AND ENHANCED 850 MB TO 500 MB MOISTURE. SINCE THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE EASTERN FLANKS OF AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE...HOT
AND HUMID WEATHER IS ON TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE MID 90S
MANY AREAS WITH HEAT INDICES INLAND GEORGIA ZONES REACHING 105-108
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. POPS CAPPED AT 20/30 PERCENT ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON...ALIGNED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE
GRADIENT. SEASONABLY STRONG THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE COUPLED WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WARM MID LEVELS TO PRODUCE MOSTLY SPOTTY
PULSE CONVECTION UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPS JUST TO OUR W AND SW. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS
COULD CROP UP FROM EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE OKEFENOKEE...A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD BRUSH LOCATIONS SUCH AS METTER AND
REIDSVILLE BUT OVERALL WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF A RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS INLAND GEORGIA.

A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO MID EVENING INLAND ZONES
WEST OF I-95 BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND STRATUS...MAINLY
OVER INLAND ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN EAST-WEST MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION. THUS...AFTERNOON POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR
THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND...HIGHEST ALONG/WEST OF I-95. MODELS
DEPICT LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INLAND INSTABILITY. THUS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...UNLESS A STRONGER
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WHICH DEVELOPS INLAND CLIPS FAR
INLAND COUNTIES. OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS/BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S SHOULD BECOME COMMON AWAY FROM
THE COAST...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD PEAK IN THE 100-105F RANGE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...INLAND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE. HOWEVER...TO VARYING DEGREES GUIDANCE DEPICTS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THUS...MAINTAINED ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION AND
WILL STALL. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND WILL FOCUS A POOL OF PWATS EXCEEDING 2
INCHES...1-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...OVER THE AREA. THIS
REGIME WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION FEATURING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED.

THE POTENTIAL FOR PULSE SEVERE WEATHER COULD ACTUALLY BE GREATEST AS
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OF
GREATER CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL
SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND ERRATIC STORM PROPAGATION...AND THE
PROBABILITY FOR LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL INCREASE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES COULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY. THEN...HELD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90F
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 80S AT MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT...ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH...WEAK
STEERING WINDS AND RESERVOIR OF ABOVE-NORMAL PWATS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED POPS AND A CONTINUING THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/SHORT FUSE FLOODING. LIKELY POPS APPEAR
REASONABLE FOR SATURDAY. THEN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES REGARDING
THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUNDAY-MONDAY. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ALLOWS THE TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STRONGER
AND HOLDS THE TROUGH AXIS AND RICH MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS
DEPICTED BY THE 29/00Z EUROPEAN...ELEVATED POPS/THE ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OR WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES/POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT AT
BOTH KSAV/KCHS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE
TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT FOG IS FAIRLY UNLIKELY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCAL WATERSPOUT CHECKLIST GAVE A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR
WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING. WEB CAMS FROM THE BEACHES INDICATE
FAVORABLE CU LINES/TOWERS. WE HAVE ISSUED A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT ADDRESSING POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING.

WITH THE WEAK LOW PRES WELL OFFSHORE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY
PERSIST WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 10 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
DIURNAL ENHANCEMENTS OF 10-15 KT ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...
HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALL OVER THE REGION...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND PERIODIC NOCTURNAL SURGES COULD PUSH
WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET WILL REMAIN COMMON...
ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF 4 FT SEAS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT ANY TIME LATE WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS
AND WILL CREATE LOCALIZED HAZARDS...PERHAPS INCLUDING WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
AND FULL MOON CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED AROUND HIGH
TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291145
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
745 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND
WILL STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DISORGANIZED LOW PRES WILL RESIDE OFF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT
AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY ENE OR NE. DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES
ARE MOSTLY SW THROUGH SE OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BUT OUR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA ZONES DO BRUSH THE REGION OF HIGHER
PWATS AND ENHANCED 850 MB TO 500 MB MOISTURE. SINCE THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE EASTERN FLANKS OF AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE...HOT
AND HUMID WEATHER IS ON TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE MID 90S
MANY AREAS WITH HEAT INDICES INLAND GEORGIA ZONES REACHING 105-108
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. POPS CAPPED AT 20/30 PERCENT ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON...ALIGNED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE
GRADIENT. SEASONABLY STRONG THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE COUPLED WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WARM MID LEVELS TO PRODUCE MOSTLY SPOTTY
PULSE CONVECTION UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPS JUST TO OUR W AND SW. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS
COULD CROP UP FROM EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE OKEFENOKEE...A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD BRUSH LOCATIONS SUCH AS METTER AND
REIDSVILLE BUT OVERALL WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF A RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS INLAND GEORGIA.

A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO MID EVENING INLAND ZONES
WEST OF I-95 BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND STRATUS...MAINLY
OVER INLAND ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN EAST-WEST MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION. THUS...AFTERNOON POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR
THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND...HIGHEST ALONG/WEST OF I-95. MODELS
DEPICT LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INLAND INSTABILITY. THUS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...UNLESS A STRONGER
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WHICH DEVELOPS INLAND CLIPS FAR
INLAND COUNTIES. OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS/BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S SHOULD BECOME COMMON AWAY FROM
THE COAST...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD PEAK IN THE 100-105F RANGE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...INLAND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE. HOWEVER...TO VARYING DEGREES GUIDANCE DEPICTS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THUS...MAINTAINED ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION AND
WILL STALL. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND WILL FOCUS A POOL OF PWATS EXCEEDING 2
INCHES...1-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...OVER THE AREA. THIS
REGIME WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION FEATURING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED.

THE POTENTIAL FOR PULSE SEVERE WEATHER COULD ACTUALLY BE GREATEST AS
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OF
GREATER CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL
SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND ERRATIC STORM PROPAGATION...AND THE
PROBABILITY FOR LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL INCREASE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES COULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY. THEN...HELD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90F
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 80S AT MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT...ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH...WEAK
STEERING WINDS AND RESERVOIR OF ABOVE-NORMAL PWATS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED POPS AND A CONTINUING THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/SHORT FUSE FLOODING. LIKELY POPS APPEAR
REASONABLE FOR SATURDAY. THEN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES REGARDING
THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUNDAY-MONDAY. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ALLOWS THE TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STRONGER
AND HOLDS THE TROUGH AXIS AND RICH MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS
DEPICTED BY THE 29/00Z EUROPEAN...ELEVATED POPS/THE ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OR WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES/POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT AT
BOTH KSAV/KCHS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE
TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT FOG IS FAIRLY UNLIKELY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCAL WATERSPOUT CHECKLIST GAVE A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR
WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING. WEB CAMS FROM THE BEACHES INDICATE
FAVORABLE CU LINES/TOWERS. WE HAVE ISSUED A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT ADDRESSING POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING.

WITH THE WEAK LOW PRES WELL OFFSHORE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY
PERSIST WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 10 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
DIURNAL ENHANCEMENTS OF 10-15 KT ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...
HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALL OVER THE REGION...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND PERIODIC NOCTURNAL SURGES COULD PUSH
WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET WILL REMAIN COMMON...
ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF 4 FT SEAS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT ANY TIME LATE WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS
AND WILL CREATE LOCALIZED HAZARDS...PERHAPS INCLUDING WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
AND FULL MOON CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED AROUND HIGH
TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291145
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
745 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND
WILL STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DISORGANIZED LOW PRES WILL RESIDE OFF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT
AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY ENE OR NE. DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES
ARE MOSTLY SW THROUGH SE OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BUT OUR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA ZONES DO BRUSH THE REGION OF HIGHER
PWATS AND ENHANCED 850 MB TO 500 MB MOISTURE. SINCE THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE EASTERN FLANKS OF AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE...HOT
AND HUMID WEATHER IS ON TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE MID 90S
MANY AREAS WITH HEAT INDICES INLAND GEORGIA ZONES REACHING 105-108
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. POPS CAPPED AT 20/30 PERCENT ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON...ALIGNED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE
GRADIENT. SEASONABLY STRONG THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE COUPLED WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WARM MID LEVELS TO PRODUCE MOSTLY SPOTTY
PULSE CONVECTION UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPS JUST TO OUR W AND SW. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS
COULD CROP UP FROM EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE OKEFENOKEE...A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD BRUSH LOCATIONS SUCH AS METTER AND
REIDSVILLE BUT OVERALL WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF A RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS INLAND GEORGIA.

A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO MID EVENING INLAND ZONES
WEST OF I-95 BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND STRATUS...MAINLY
OVER INLAND ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN EAST-WEST MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION. THUS...AFTERNOON POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR
THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND...HIGHEST ALONG/WEST OF I-95. MODELS
DEPICT LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INLAND INSTABILITY. THUS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...UNLESS A STRONGER
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WHICH DEVELOPS INLAND CLIPS FAR
INLAND COUNTIES. OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS/BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S SHOULD BECOME COMMON AWAY FROM
THE COAST...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD PEAK IN THE 100-105F RANGE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...INLAND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE. HOWEVER...TO VARYING DEGREES GUIDANCE DEPICTS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THUS...MAINTAINED ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION AND
WILL STALL. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND WILL FOCUS A POOL OF PWATS EXCEEDING 2
INCHES...1-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...OVER THE AREA. THIS
REGIME WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION FEATURING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED.

THE POTENTIAL FOR PULSE SEVERE WEATHER COULD ACTUALLY BE GREATEST AS
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OF
GREATER CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL
SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND ERRATIC STORM PROPAGATION...AND THE
PROBABILITY FOR LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL INCREASE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES COULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY. THEN...HELD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90F
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 80S AT MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT...ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH...WEAK
STEERING WINDS AND RESERVOIR OF ABOVE-NORMAL PWATS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED POPS AND A CONTINUING THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/SHORT FUSE FLOODING. LIKELY POPS APPEAR
REASONABLE FOR SATURDAY. THEN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES REGARDING
THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUNDAY-MONDAY. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ALLOWS THE TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STRONGER
AND HOLDS THE TROUGH AXIS AND RICH MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS
DEPICTED BY THE 29/00Z EUROPEAN...ELEVATED POPS/THE ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OR WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES/POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT AT
BOTH KSAV/KCHS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE
TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT FOG IS FAIRLY UNLIKELY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCAL WATERSPOUT CHECKLIST GAVE A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR
WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING. WEB CAMS FROM THE BEACHES INDICATE
FAVORABLE CU LINES/TOWERS. WE HAVE ISSUED A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT ADDRESSING POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING.

WITH THE WEAK LOW PRES WELL OFFSHORE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY
PERSIST WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 10 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
DIURNAL ENHANCEMENTS OF 10-15 KT ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...
HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALL OVER THE REGION...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND PERIODIC NOCTURNAL SURGES COULD PUSH
WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET WILL REMAIN COMMON...
ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF 4 FT SEAS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT ANY TIME LATE WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS
AND WILL CREATE LOCALIZED HAZARDS...PERHAPS INCLUDING WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
AND FULL MOON CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED AROUND HIGH
TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291125 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
725 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING AN
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO ALL SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA. NOT SURE HOW STRONG OR EFFECTIVE THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...SO ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105
ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE.

20


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT
HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GA OR NORTH FL BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS SUGGEST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY... THEN MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA... AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL
TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY
HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CARRY
TEMPO THUNDER DURING THE 20Z-23Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  92  75 /  40  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     87  69  89  66 /  40  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  76  95  76 /  40  30  50  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           95  74  94  76 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  92  74 /  40  30  50  30
VIDALIA         95  75  96  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...
PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20



000
FXUS62 KFFC 291125 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
725 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING AN
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO ALL SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA. NOT SURE HOW STRONG OR EFFECTIVE THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...SO ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105
ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE.

20


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT
HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GA OR NORTH FL BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS SUGGEST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY... THEN MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA... AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL
TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY
HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CARRY
TEMPO THUNDER DURING THE 20Z-23Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  92  75 /  40  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     87  69  89  66 /  40  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  76  95  76 /  40  30  50  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           95  74  94  76 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  92  74 /  40  30  50  30
VIDALIA         95  75  96  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...
PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20



000
FXUS62 KFFC 291125 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
725 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING AN
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO ALL SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA. NOT SURE HOW STRONG OR EFFECTIVE THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...SO ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105
ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE.

20


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT
HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GA OR NORTH FL BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS SUGGEST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY... THEN MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA... AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL
TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY
HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CARRY
TEMPO THUNDER DURING THE 20Z-23Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  92  75 /  40  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     87  69  89  66 /  40  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  76  95  76 /  40  30  50  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           95  74  94  76 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  92  74 /  40  30  50  30
VIDALIA         95  75  96  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...
PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20



000
FXUS62 KFFC 291125 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
725 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING AN
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO ALL SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA. NOT SURE HOW STRONG OR EFFECTIVE THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...SO ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105
ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE.

20


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT
HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GA OR NORTH FL BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS SUGGEST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY... THEN MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA... AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL
TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY
HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CARRY
TEMPO THUNDER DURING THE 20Z-23Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  92  75 /  40  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     87  69  89  66 /  40  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  76  95  76 /  40  30  50  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           95  74  94  76 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  92  74 /  40  30  50  30
VIDALIA         95  75  96  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...
PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20



000
FXUS62 KFFC 291125 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
725 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING AN
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO ALL SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA. NOT SURE HOW STRONG OR EFFECTIVE THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...SO ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105
ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE.

20


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT
HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GA OR NORTH FL BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS SUGGEST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY... THEN MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA... AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL
TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY
HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CARRY
TEMPO THUNDER DURING THE 20Z-23Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  92  75 /  40  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     87  69  89  66 /  40  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  76  95  76 /  40  30  50  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           95  74  94  76 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  92  74 /  40  30  50  30
VIDALIA         95  75  96  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...
PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20



000
FXUS62 KCAE 291048
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA TODAY WITH RESULTING WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE DEE.
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH REGION LATER TODAY ALTHOUGH LIFT APPEARS WEAK. WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE WEST SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS
WITH GFS/NAM FOCUS CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE PIEDMONT. ECMWF/SREF SUGGEST FRONT BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSER TO THE MIDLANDS. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST AND LOWER POPS WEST
FRIDAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS APPEARS TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY
STALLING IT TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO
STALL THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE
ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT HAS REMAINED OUT OF THE TAF SITES AND HAVE
REMOVED MENTION FROM TAFS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION...WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY SHOWERS FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20/02Z. SHOWERS
WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 30/06Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291048
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA TODAY WITH RESULTING WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE DEE.
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH REGION LATER TODAY ALTHOUGH LIFT APPEARS WEAK. WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE WEST SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS
WITH GFS/NAM FOCUS CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE PIEDMONT. ECMWF/SREF SUGGEST FRONT BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSER TO THE MIDLANDS. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST AND LOWER POPS WEST
FRIDAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS APPEARS TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY
STALLING IT TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO
STALL THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE
ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT HAS REMAINED OUT OF THE TAF SITES AND HAVE
REMOVED MENTION FROM TAFS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION...WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY SHOWERS FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20/02Z. SHOWERS
WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 30/06Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291048
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA TODAY WITH RESULTING WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE DEE.
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH REGION LATER TODAY ALTHOUGH LIFT APPEARS WEAK. WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE WEST SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS
WITH GFS/NAM FOCUS CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE PIEDMONT. ECMWF/SREF SUGGEST FRONT BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSER TO THE MIDLANDS. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST AND LOWER POPS WEST
FRIDAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS APPEARS TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY
STALLING IT TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO
STALL THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE
ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT HAS REMAINED OUT OF THE TAF SITES AND HAVE
REMOVED MENTION FROM TAFS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION...WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY SHOWERS FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20/02Z. SHOWERS
WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 30/06Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291048
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA TODAY WITH RESULTING WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE DEE.
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH REGION LATER TODAY ALTHOUGH LIFT APPEARS WEAK. WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE WEST SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS
WITH GFS/NAM FOCUS CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE PIEDMONT. ECMWF/SREF SUGGEST FRONT BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSER TO THE MIDLANDS. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST AND LOWER POPS WEST
FRIDAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS APPEARS TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY
STALLING IT TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO
STALL THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE
ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT HAS REMAINED OUT OF THE TAF SITES AND HAVE
REMOVED MENTION FROM TAFS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION...WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY SHOWERS FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20/02Z. SHOWERS
WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 30/06Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291048
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA TODAY WITH RESULTING WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE DEE.
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH REGION LATER TODAY ALTHOUGH LIFT APPEARS WEAK. WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE WEST SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS
WITH GFS/NAM FOCUS CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE PIEDMONT. ECMWF/SREF SUGGEST FRONT BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSER TO THE MIDLANDS. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST AND LOWER POPS WEST
FRIDAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS APPEARS TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY
STALLING IT TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO
STALL THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE
ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT HAS REMAINED OUT OF THE TAF SITES AND HAVE
REMOVED MENTION FROM TAFS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION...WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY SHOWERS FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20/02Z. SHOWERS
WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 30/06Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290754
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
354 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND
WILL STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...A WEAK PRES PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING TYPICAL FOR THE
SEASON. INLAND HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
LOW WAS OVER THE ATLC TO THE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION BETWEEN 1 KFT AND 2 KFT
ACROSS THE AREA AND SUSPECT WE WILL SEE STRATUS AND LOWER STRATOCU
EXPAND THROUGH SUNRISE BUT NOT CONVINCED WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND WE
MAINTAINED SOME AREAS OF FOG ACROSS INLAND SE GEORGIA.

DISORGANIZED LOW PRES WILL RESIDE OFF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY ENE OR NE. DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
MOSTLY SW THROUGH SE OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BUT OUR WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA ZONES DO BRUSH THE REGION OF HIGHER PWATS AND
ENHANCED 850 MB TO 500 MB MOISTURE. SINCE THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE EASTERN FLANKS OF AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE...HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER IS ON TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE MID 90S MANY AREAS
WITH HEAT INDICES INLAND GEORGIA ZONES REACHING 105-108 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON. POPS CAPPED AT 20/30 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 THIS AFTERNOON...ALIGNED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT.
SEASONABLY STRONG THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE COUPLED WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND WARM MID LEVELS TO PRODUCE MOSTLY SPOTTY PULSE
CONVECTION UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPS JUST TO OUR W AND SW. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS COULD CROP
UP FROM EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE OKEFENOKEE...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BRUSH LOCATIONS SUCH AS METTER AND REIDSVILLE BUT
OVERALL WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS INLAND GEORGIA.

A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO MID EVENING INLAND ZONES
WEST OF I-95 BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND STRATUS...MAINLY
OVER INLAND ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN EAST-WEST MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION. THUS...AFTERNOON POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR
THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND...HIGHEST ALONG/WEST OF I-95. MODELS
DEPICT LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INLAND INSTABILITY. THUS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...UNLESS A STRONGER
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WHICH DEVELOPS INLAND CLIPS FAR
INLAND COUNTIES. OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS/BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S SHOULD BECOME COMMON AWAY FROM
THE COAST...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD PEAK IN THE 100-105F RANGE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...INLAND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE. HOWEVER...TO VARYING DEGREES GUIDANCE DEPICTS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THUS...MAINTAINED ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION AND
WILL STALL. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND WILL FOCUS A POOL OF PWATS EXCEEDING 2
INCHES...1-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...OVER THE AREA. THIS
REGIME WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION FEATURING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED.

THE POTENTIAL FOR PULSE SEVERE WEATHER COULD ACTUALLY BE GREATEST AS
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OF
GREATER CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL
SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND ERRATIC STORM PROPAGATION...AND THE
PROBABILITY FOR LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL INCREASE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES COULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY. THEN...HELD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90F
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 80S AT MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT...ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH...WEAK
STEERING WINDS AND RESERVOIR OF ABOVE-NORMAL PWATS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED POPS AND A CONTINUING THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/SHORT FUSE FLOODING. LIKELY POPS APPEAR
REASONABLE FOR SATURDAY. THEN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES REGARDING
THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUNDAY-MONDAY. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ALLOWS THE TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STRONGER
AND HOLDS THE TROUGH AXIS AND RICH MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS
DEPICTED BY THE 29/00Z EUROPEAN...ELEVATED POPS/THE ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OR WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES/POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT KSAV AND KCHS SUGGEST LESS IMPRESSIVE
FOG STABILITY INDICES/PARAMETERS BUT STILL A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CLOUDS IN THE 600 FT TO 1200 FT RANGE NEARING DAYBREAK. WE
MAINTAINED CLOUD TRENDS FROM MVFR TO IFR FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF
CYCLE BUT PLAYED VSBYS A BIT MORE TO THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE. AFTER
MID MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE WEAK LOW PRES WELL OFFSHORE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY
PERSIST WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 10 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
DIURNAL ENHANCEMENTS OF 10-15 KT ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...
HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALL OVER THE REGION...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND PERIODIC NOCTURNAL SURGES COULD PUSH
WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET WILL REMAIN COMMON...
ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF 4 FT SEAS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT ANY TIME LATE WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS
AND WILL CREATE LOCALIZED HAZARDS...PERHAPS INCLUDING WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
AND FULL MOON CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED AROUND HIGH
TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 290754
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
354 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND
WILL STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...A WEAK PRES PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING TYPICAL FOR THE
SEASON. INLAND HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
LOW WAS OVER THE ATLC TO THE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION BETWEEN 1 KFT AND 2 KFT
ACROSS THE AREA AND SUSPECT WE WILL SEE STRATUS AND LOWER STRATOCU
EXPAND THROUGH SUNRISE BUT NOT CONVINCED WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND WE
MAINTAINED SOME AREAS OF FOG ACROSS INLAND SE GEORGIA.

DISORGANIZED LOW PRES WILL RESIDE OFF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY ENE OR NE. DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
MOSTLY SW THROUGH SE OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BUT OUR WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA ZONES DO BRUSH THE REGION OF HIGHER PWATS AND
ENHANCED 850 MB TO 500 MB MOISTURE. SINCE THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE EASTERN FLANKS OF AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE...HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER IS ON TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE MID 90S MANY AREAS
WITH HEAT INDICES INLAND GEORGIA ZONES REACHING 105-108 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON. POPS CAPPED AT 20/30 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 THIS AFTERNOON...ALIGNED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT.
SEASONABLY STRONG THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE COUPLED WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND WARM MID LEVELS TO PRODUCE MOSTLY SPOTTY PULSE
CONVECTION UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPS JUST TO OUR W AND SW. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS COULD CROP
UP FROM EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE OKEFENOKEE...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BRUSH LOCATIONS SUCH AS METTER AND REIDSVILLE BUT
OVERALL WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS INLAND GEORGIA.

A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO MID EVENING INLAND ZONES
WEST OF I-95 BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND STRATUS...MAINLY
OVER INLAND ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN EAST-WEST MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION. THUS...AFTERNOON POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR
THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND...HIGHEST ALONG/WEST OF I-95. MODELS
DEPICT LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INLAND INSTABILITY. THUS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...UNLESS A STRONGER
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WHICH DEVELOPS INLAND CLIPS FAR
INLAND COUNTIES. OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS/BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S SHOULD BECOME COMMON AWAY FROM
THE COAST...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD PEAK IN THE 100-105F RANGE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...INLAND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE. HOWEVER...TO VARYING DEGREES GUIDANCE DEPICTS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THUS...MAINTAINED ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION AND
WILL STALL. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND WILL FOCUS A POOL OF PWATS EXCEEDING 2
INCHES...1-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...OVER THE AREA. THIS
REGIME WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION FEATURING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED.

THE POTENTIAL FOR PULSE SEVERE WEATHER COULD ACTUALLY BE GREATEST AS
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OF
GREATER CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL
SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND ERRATIC STORM PROPAGATION...AND THE
PROBABILITY FOR LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL INCREASE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES COULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY. THEN...HELD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90F
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 80S AT MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT...ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH...WEAK
STEERING WINDS AND RESERVOIR OF ABOVE-NORMAL PWATS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED POPS AND A CONTINUING THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/SHORT FUSE FLOODING. LIKELY POPS APPEAR
REASONABLE FOR SATURDAY. THEN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES REGARDING
THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUNDAY-MONDAY. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ALLOWS THE TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STRONGER
AND HOLDS THE TROUGH AXIS AND RICH MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS
DEPICTED BY THE 29/00Z EUROPEAN...ELEVATED POPS/THE ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OR WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES/POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT KSAV AND KCHS SUGGEST LESS IMPRESSIVE
FOG STABILITY INDICES/PARAMETERS BUT STILL A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CLOUDS IN THE 600 FT TO 1200 FT RANGE NEARING DAYBREAK. WE
MAINTAINED CLOUD TRENDS FROM MVFR TO IFR FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF
CYCLE BUT PLAYED VSBYS A BIT MORE TO THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE. AFTER
MID MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE WEAK LOW PRES WELL OFFSHORE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY
PERSIST WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 10 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
DIURNAL ENHANCEMENTS OF 10-15 KT ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...
HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALL OVER THE REGION...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND PERIODIC NOCTURNAL SURGES COULD PUSH
WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET WILL REMAIN COMMON...
ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF 4 FT SEAS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT ANY TIME LATE WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS
AND WILL CREATE LOCALIZED HAZARDS...PERHAPS INCLUDING WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
AND FULL MOON CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED AROUND HIGH
TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 290754
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
354 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND
WILL STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...A WEAK PRES PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING TYPICAL FOR THE
SEASON. INLAND HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
LOW WAS OVER THE ATLC TO THE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION BETWEEN 1 KFT AND 2 KFT
ACROSS THE AREA AND SUSPECT WE WILL SEE STRATUS AND LOWER STRATOCU
EXPAND THROUGH SUNRISE BUT NOT CONVINCED WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND WE
MAINTAINED SOME AREAS OF FOG ACROSS INLAND SE GEORGIA.

DISORGANIZED LOW PRES WILL RESIDE OFF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY ENE OR NE. DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
MOSTLY SW THROUGH SE OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BUT OUR WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA ZONES DO BRUSH THE REGION OF HIGHER PWATS AND
ENHANCED 850 MB TO 500 MB MOISTURE. SINCE THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE EASTERN FLANKS OF AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE...HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER IS ON TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE MID 90S MANY AREAS
WITH HEAT INDICES INLAND GEORGIA ZONES REACHING 105-108 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON. POPS CAPPED AT 20/30 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 THIS AFTERNOON...ALIGNED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT.
SEASONABLY STRONG THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE COUPLED WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND WARM MID LEVELS TO PRODUCE MOSTLY SPOTTY PULSE
CONVECTION UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPS JUST TO OUR W AND SW. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS COULD CROP
UP FROM EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE OKEFENOKEE...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BRUSH LOCATIONS SUCH AS METTER AND REIDSVILLE BUT
OVERALL WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS INLAND GEORGIA.

A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO MID EVENING INLAND ZONES
WEST OF I-95 BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND STRATUS...MAINLY
OVER INLAND ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN EAST-WEST MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION. THUS...AFTERNOON POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR
THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND...HIGHEST ALONG/WEST OF I-95. MODELS
DEPICT LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INLAND INSTABILITY. THUS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...UNLESS A STRONGER
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WHICH DEVELOPS INLAND CLIPS FAR
INLAND COUNTIES. OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS/BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S SHOULD BECOME COMMON AWAY FROM
THE COAST...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD PEAK IN THE 100-105F RANGE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...INLAND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE. HOWEVER...TO VARYING DEGREES GUIDANCE DEPICTS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THUS...MAINTAINED ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION AND
WILL STALL. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND WILL FOCUS A POOL OF PWATS EXCEEDING 2
INCHES...1-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...OVER THE AREA. THIS
REGIME WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION FEATURING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED.

THE POTENTIAL FOR PULSE SEVERE WEATHER COULD ACTUALLY BE GREATEST AS
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OF
GREATER CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL
SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND ERRATIC STORM PROPAGATION...AND THE
PROBABILITY FOR LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL INCREASE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES COULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY. THEN...HELD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90F
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 80S AT MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT...ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH...WEAK
STEERING WINDS AND RESERVOIR OF ABOVE-NORMAL PWATS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED POPS AND A CONTINUING THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/SHORT FUSE FLOODING. LIKELY POPS APPEAR
REASONABLE FOR SATURDAY. THEN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES REGARDING
THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUNDAY-MONDAY. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ALLOWS THE TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STRONGER
AND HOLDS THE TROUGH AXIS AND RICH MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS
DEPICTED BY THE 29/00Z EUROPEAN...ELEVATED POPS/THE ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OR WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES/POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT KSAV AND KCHS SUGGEST LESS IMPRESSIVE
FOG STABILITY INDICES/PARAMETERS BUT STILL A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CLOUDS IN THE 600 FT TO 1200 FT RANGE NEARING DAYBREAK. WE
MAINTAINED CLOUD TRENDS FROM MVFR TO IFR FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF
CYCLE BUT PLAYED VSBYS A BIT MORE TO THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE. AFTER
MID MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE WEAK LOW PRES WELL OFFSHORE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY
PERSIST WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 10 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
DIURNAL ENHANCEMENTS OF 10-15 KT ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...
HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALL OVER THE REGION...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND PERIODIC NOCTURNAL SURGES COULD PUSH
WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET WILL REMAIN COMMON...
ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF 4 FT SEAS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT ANY TIME LATE WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS
AND WILL CREATE LOCALIZED HAZARDS...PERHAPS INCLUDING WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
AND FULL MOON CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED AROUND HIGH
TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 290754
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
354 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND
WILL STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...A WEAK PRES PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING TYPICAL FOR THE
SEASON. INLAND HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
LOW WAS OVER THE ATLC TO THE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION BETWEEN 1 KFT AND 2 KFT
ACROSS THE AREA AND SUSPECT WE WILL SEE STRATUS AND LOWER STRATOCU
EXPAND THROUGH SUNRISE BUT NOT CONVINCED WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND WE
MAINTAINED SOME AREAS OF FOG ACROSS INLAND SE GEORGIA.

DISORGANIZED LOW PRES WILL RESIDE OFF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY ENE OR NE. DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
MOSTLY SW THROUGH SE OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BUT OUR WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA ZONES DO BRUSH THE REGION OF HIGHER PWATS AND
ENHANCED 850 MB TO 500 MB MOISTURE. SINCE THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE EASTERN FLANKS OF AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE...HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER IS ON TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE MID 90S MANY AREAS
WITH HEAT INDICES INLAND GEORGIA ZONES REACHING 105-108 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON. POPS CAPPED AT 20/30 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 THIS AFTERNOON...ALIGNED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT.
SEASONABLY STRONG THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE COUPLED WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND WARM MID LEVELS TO PRODUCE MOSTLY SPOTTY PULSE
CONVECTION UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPS JUST TO OUR W AND SW. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS COULD CROP
UP FROM EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE OKEFENOKEE...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BRUSH LOCATIONS SUCH AS METTER AND REIDSVILLE BUT
OVERALL WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS INLAND GEORGIA.

A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO MID EVENING INLAND ZONES
WEST OF I-95 BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND STRATUS...MAINLY
OVER INLAND ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN EAST-WEST MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION. THUS...AFTERNOON POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR
THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND...HIGHEST ALONG/WEST OF I-95. MODELS
DEPICT LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INLAND INSTABILITY. THUS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...UNLESS A STRONGER
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WHICH DEVELOPS INLAND CLIPS FAR
INLAND COUNTIES. OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS/BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S SHOULD BECOME COMMON AWAY FROM
THE COAST...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD PEAK IN THE 100-105F RANGE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...INLAND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE. HOWEVER...TO VARYING DEGREES GUIDANCE DEPICTS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THUS...MAINTAINED ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION AND
WILL STALL. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND WILL FOCUS A POOL OF PWATS EXCEEDING 2
INCHES...1-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...OVER THE AREA. THIS
REGIME WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION FEATURING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED.

THE POTENTIAL FOR PULSE SEVERE WEATHER COULD ACTUALLY BE GREATEST AS
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OF
GREATER CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL
SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND ERRATIC STORM PROPAGATION...AND THE
PROBABILITY FOR LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL INCREASE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES COULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY. THEN...HELD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90F
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 80S AT MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT...ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH...WEAK
STEERING WINDS AND RESERVOIR OF ABOVE-NORMAL PWATS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED POPS AND A CONTINUING THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/SHORT FUSE FLOODING. LIKELY POPS APPEAR
REASONABLE FOR SATURDAY. THEN...MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES REGARDING
THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUNDAY-MONDAY. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ALLOWS THE TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STRONGER
AND HOLDS THE TROUGH AXIS AND RICH MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS
DEPICTED BY THE 29/00Z EUROPEAN...ELEVATED POPS/THE ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OR WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES/POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT KSAV AND KCHS SUGGEST LESS IMPRESSIVE
FOG STABILITY INDICES/PARAMETERS BUT STILL A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CLOUDS IN THE 600 FT TO 1200 FT RANGE NEARING DAYBREAK. WE
MAINTAINED CLOUD TRENDS FROM MVFR TO IFR FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF
CYCLE BUT PLAYED VSBYS A BIT MORE TO THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE. AFTER
MID MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE WEAK LOW PRES WELL OFFSHORE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY
PERSIST WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 10 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
DIURNAL ENHANCEMENTS OF 10-15 KT ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...
HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALL OVER THE REGION...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND PERIODIC NOCTURNAL SURGES COULD PUSH
WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET WILL REMAIN COMMON...
ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF 4 FT SEAS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT ANY TIME LATE WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS
AND WILL CREATE LOCALIZED HAZARDS...PERHAPS INCLUDING WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
AND FULL MOON CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED AROUND HIGH
TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KFFC 290743
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
343 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING AN
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO ALL SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA. NOT SURE HOW STRONG OR EFFECTIVE THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...SO ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105
ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE.

20


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT
HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GA OR NORTH FL BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS SUGGEST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY... THEN MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA... AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL
TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY
HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE PROB30 DURING
THE 20Z-00Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  92  75 /  40  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     87  69  89  66 /  40  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  76  95  76 /  40  30  50  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           95  74  94  76 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  92  74 /  40  30  50  30
VIDALIA         95  75  96  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...
PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20



000
FXUS62 KFFC 290743
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
343 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING AN
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO ALL SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA. NOT SURE HOW STRONG OR EFFECTIVE THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...SO ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105
ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE.

20


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT
HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GA OR NORTH FL BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS SUGGEST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY... THEN MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA... AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL
TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY
HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE PROB30 DURING
THE 20Z-00Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  92  75 /  40  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     87  69  89  66 /  40  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  76  95  76 /  40  30  50  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           95  74  94  76 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  92  74 /  40  30  50  30
VIDALIA         95  75  96  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...
PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20



000
FXUS62 KFFC 290743
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
343 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING AN
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO ALL SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA. NOT SURE HOW STRONG OR EFFECTIVE THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...SO ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105
ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE.

20


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT
HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GA OR NORTH FL BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS SUGGEST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY... THEN MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA... AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL
TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY
HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE PROB30 DURING
THE 20Z-00Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  92  75 /  40  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     87  69  89  66 /  40  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  76  95  76 /  40  30  50  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           95  74  94  76 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  92  74 /  40  30  50  30
VIDALIA         95  75  96  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...
PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290717
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
317 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA TODAY WITH RESULTING WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE DEE.
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH REGION LATER TODAY ALTHOUGH LIFT APPEARS WEAK. WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE WEST SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS
WITH GFS/NAM FOCUS CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE PIEDMONT. ECMWF/SREF SUGGEST FRONT BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSER TO THE MIDLANDS. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST AND LOWER POPS WEST
FRIDAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS APPEARS TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY
STALLING IT TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO
STALL THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE
ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FROM 13Z ONWARD.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE CROSSING THE REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS NOTED AT A FEW SITES. WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT
FOG TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND IMPACT
ALL TAF SITES FROM EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS. FOG
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290717
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
317 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA TODAY WITH RESULTING WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE DEE.
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH REGION LATER TODAY ALTHOUGH LIFT APPEARS WEAK. WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE WEST SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS
WITH GFS/NAM FOCUS CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE PIEDMONT. ECMWF/SREF SUGGEST FRONT BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSER TO THE MIDLANDS. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST AND LOWER POPS WEST
FRIDAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS APPEARS TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY
STALLING IT TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO
STALL THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE
ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FROM 13Z ONWARD.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE CROSSING THE REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS NOTED AT A FEW SITES. WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT
FOG TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND IMPACT
ALL TAF SITES FROM EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS. FOG
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 290611
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
211 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SC/NC BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LINGERING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT MAY HELP KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FROM 13Z ONWARD.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE CROSSING THE REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS NOTED AT A FEW SITES. WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT
FOG TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND IMPACT
ALL TAF SITES FROM EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS. FOG
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 290611
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
211 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SC/NC BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LINGERING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT MAY HELP KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FROM 13Z ONWARD.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE CROSSING THE REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS NOTED AT A FEW SITES. WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT
FOG TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND IMPACT
ALL TAF SITES FROM EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS. FOG
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 290611
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
211 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SC/NC BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LINGERING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT MAY HELP KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FROM 13Z ONWARD.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE CROSSING THE REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS NOTED AT A FEW SITES. WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT
FOG TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND IMPACT
ALL TAF SITES FROM EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS. FOG
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 290611
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
211 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SC/NC BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LINGERING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT MAY HELP KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FROM 13Z ONWARD.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE CROSSING THE REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS NOTED AT A FEW SITES. WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT
FOG TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND IMPACT
ALL TAF SITES FROM EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS. FOG
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 290611
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
211 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SC/NC BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LINGERING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT MAY HELP KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FROM 13Z ONWARD.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE CROSSING THE REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS NOTED AT A FEW SITES. WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT
FOG TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND IMPACT
ALL TAF SITES FROM EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS. FOG
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 290611
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
211 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SC/NC BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LINGERING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT MAY HELP KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FROM 13Z ONWARD.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE CROSSING THE REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS NOTED AT A FEW SITES. WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT
FOG TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND IMPACT
ALL TAF SITES FROM EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS. FOG
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 290611
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
211 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SC/NC BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LINGERING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT MAY HELP KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FROM 13Z ONWARD.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE CROSSING THE REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS NOTED AT A FEW SITES. WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT
FOG TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND IMPACT
ALL TAF SITES FROM EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS. FOG
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 290611
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
211 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SC/NC BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LINGERING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT MAY HELP KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FROM 13Z ONWARD.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE CROSSING THE REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS NOTED AT A FEW SITES. WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT
FOG TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND IMPACT
ALL TAF SITES FROM EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS. FOG
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 290611
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
211 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SC/NC BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LINGERING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT MAY HELP KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FROM 13Z ONWARD.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE CROSSING THE REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS NOTED AT A FEW SITES. WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT
FOG TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND IMPACT
ALL TAF SITES FROM EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS. FOG
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 290611
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
211 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SC/NC BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LINGERING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT MAY HELP KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FROM 13Z ONWARD.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE CROSSING THE REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS NOTED AT A FEW SITES. WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT
FOG TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND IMPACT
ALL TAF SITES FROM EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS. FOG
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KFFC 290542 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY
THAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS INCREASED MOISTURE HAS PUSHED
INTO THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BENIGN AND BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE
MODERATE AND MID-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES AROUND OR JUST OVER 100 DEGREES. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
REASON NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

RW

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA.

CWFA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 500MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS BACK EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CWFA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...EACH ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

ONE OF THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS TO RAISE POPS
IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY HAVE
BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE PROB30 DURING THE 20Z-00Z
TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  40
ATLANTA         75  91  75  92 /  20  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     67  87  66  89 /  30  40  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  92  73  93 /  20  30  20  40
COLUMBUS        77  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40
GAINESVILLE     74  90  74  91 /  30  30  30  40
MACON           73  95  73  93 /  20  30  30  40
ROME            73  93  74  93 /  20  30  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  73  92  73  92 /  20  30  30  40
VIDALIA         75  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 290542 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY
THAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS INCREASED MOISTURE HAS PUSHED
INTO THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BENIGN AND BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE
MODERATE AND MID-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES AROUND OR JUST OVER 100 DEGREES. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
REASON NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

RW

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA.

CWFA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 500MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS BACK EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CWFA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...EACH ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

ONE OF THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS TO RAISE POPS
IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY HAVE
BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE PROB30 DURING THE 20Z-00Z
TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  40
ATLANTA         75  91  75  92 /  20  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     67  87  66  89 /  30  40  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  92  73  93 /  20  30  20  40
COLUMBUS        77  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40
GAINESVILLE     74  90  74  91 /  30  30  30  40
MACON           73  95  73  93 /  20  30  30  40
ROME            73  93  74  93 /  20  30  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  73  92  73  92 /  20  30  30  40
VIDALIA         75  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 290542 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY
THAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS INCREASED MOISTURE HAS PUSHED
INTO THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BENIGN AND BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE
MODERATE AND MID-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES AROUND OR JUST OVER 100 DEGREES. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
REASON NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

RW

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA.

CWFA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 500MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS BACK EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CWFA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...EACH ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

ONE OF THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS TO RAISE POPS
IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY HAVE
BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE PROB30 DURING THE 20Z-00Z
TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  40
ATLANTA         75  91  75  92 /  20  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     67  87  66  89 /  30  40  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  92  73  93 /  20  30  20  40
COLUMBUS        77  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40
GAINESVILLE     74  90  74  91 /  30  30  30  40
MACON           73  95  73  93 /  20  30  30  40
ROME            73  93  74  93 /  20  30  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  73  92  73  92 /  20  30  30  40
VIDALIA         75  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 290542 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY
THAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS INCREASED MOISTURE HAS PUSHED
INTO THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BENIGN AND BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE
MODERATE AND MID-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES AROUND OR JUST OVER 100 DEGREES. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
REASON NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

RW

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA.

CWFA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 500MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS BACK EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CWFA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...EACH ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

ONE OF THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS TO RAISE POPS
IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY HAVE
BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE PROB30 DURING THE 20Z-00Z
TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  40
ATLANTA         75  91  75  92 /  20  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     67  87  66  89 /  30  40  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  92  73  93 /  20  30  20  40
COLUMBUS        77  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40
GAINESVILLE     74  90  74  91 /  30  30  30  40
MACON           73  95  73  93 /  20  30  30  40
ROME            73  93  74  93 /  20  30  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  73  92  73  92 /  20  30  30  40
VIDALIA         75  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290500
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
100 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL THEN LINGER ALONG OR
NEAR THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHILE A MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A
BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR
A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND...WHICH WILL HELP BUILD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT...AREAS OF LOW
STRATOCU AND STRATUS AND WELL AS SOME FOG MAY FORM. LOW TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
POSITIONED BETWEEN THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND A BROAD TUTT-LIKE
FEATURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW WILL
SIT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MAY EVEN EXTEND BACK INLAND ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA AT TIMES. OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE A RATHER
LACKLUSTER PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF AN INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL CAP
AROUND 800 MB. THE FURTHER INLAND AND WEST YOU GO...THE CAP IS
WEAKER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE COVERAGE ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO POPS
WITH CHANCES WEST OF I-95 AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS VERY UNIMPRESSIVE SO THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS QUITE MINIMAL. OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION AS THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE PUSHES BACK TO THE WEST AND THE OFFSHORE
TROUGH/TUTT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS EVIDENCED
BY PWATS RISING TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WOULD BE AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE. FRIDAY WILL CERTAINLY BE THE
MORE ACTIVE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. LIKELY POPS ARE IN PLACE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE FOCUSED ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. 1000-500 MB MEAN
FLOW WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SO SLOW AND MINIMAL STORM MOVEMENT
COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE PRESENCE OF
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE WARMING/DRYING
TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY... PERIODS
OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT KSAV AND KCHS SUGGEST LESS
IMPRESSIVE FOG STABILITY INDICES/PARAMETERS BUT STILL A DECENT
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS IN THE 600 FT TO 1200 FT RANGE NEARING
DAYBREAK. WE MAINTAINED CLOUD TRENDS FROM MVFR TO IFR FROM THE
PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE BUT PLAYED VSBYS A BIT MORE TO THE OPTIMISTIC
SIDE. AFTER MID MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. IN GENERAL...EAST
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 15 KT. SEAS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...WITH PERIODIC INCREASES INTO
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE WITHIN NOCTURNAL SURGES AND ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE WITH THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK...THEN 2-4 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
AND FULL MOON CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 290500
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
100 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL THEN LINGER ALONG OR
NEAR THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHILE A MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A
BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR
A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND...WHICH WILL HELP BUILD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT...AREAS OF LOW
STRATOCU AND STRATUS AND WELL AS SOME FOG MAY FORM. LOW TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
POSITIONED BETWEEN THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND A BROAD TUTT-LIKE
FEATURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW WILL
SIT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MAY EVEN EXTEND BACK INLAND ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA AT TIMES. OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE A RATHER
LACKLUSTER PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF AN INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL CAP
AROUND 800 MB. THE FURTHER INLAND AND WEST YOU GO...THE CAP IS
WEAKER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE COVERAGE ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO POPS
WITH CHANCES WEST OF I-95 AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS VERY UNIMPRESSIVE SO THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS QUITE MINIMAL. OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION AS THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE PUSHES BACK TO THE WEST AND THE OFFSHORE
TROUGH/TUTT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS EVIDENCED
BY PWATS RISING TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WOULD BE AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE. FRIDAY WILL CERTAINLY BE THE
MORE ACTIVE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. LIKELY POPS ARE IN PLACE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE FOCUSED ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. 1000-500 MB MEAN
FLOW WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SO SLOW AND MINIMAL STORM MOVEMENT
COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE PRESENCE OF
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE WARMING/DRYING
TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY... PERIODS
OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT KSAV AND KCHS SUGGEST LESS
IMPRESSIVE FOG STABILITY INDICES/PARAMETERS BUT STILL A DECENT
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS IN THE 600 FT TO 1200 FT RANGE NEARING
DAYBREAK. WE MAINTAINED CLOUD TRENDS FROM MVFR TO IFR FROM THE
PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE BUT PLAYED VSBYS A BIT MORE TO THE OPTIMISTIC
SIDE. AFTER MID MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. IN GENERAL...EAST
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 15 KT. SEAS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...WITH PERIODIC INCREASES INTO
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE WITHIN NOCTURNAL SURGES AND ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE WITH THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK...THEN 2-4 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
AND FULL MOON CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290500
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
100 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL THEN LINGER ALONG OR
NEAR THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHILE A MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A
BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR
A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND...WHICH WILL HELP BUILD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT...AREAS OF LOW
STRATOCU AND STRATUS AND WELL AS SOME FOG MAY FORM. LOW TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
POSITIONED BETWEEN THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND A BROAD TUTT-LIKE
FEATURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW WILL
SIT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MAY EVEN EXTEND BACK INLAND ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA AT TIMES. OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE A RATHER
LACKLUSTER PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF AN INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL CAP
AROUND 800 MB. THE FURTHER INLAND AND WEST YOU GO...THE CAP IS
WEAKER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE COVERAGE ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO POPS
WITH CHANCES WEST OF I-95 AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS VERY UNIMPRESSIVE SO THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS QUITE MINIMAL. OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION AS THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE PUSHES BACK TO THE WEST AND THE OFFSHORE
TROUGH/TUTT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS EVIDENCED
BY PWATS RISING TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WOULD BE AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE. FRIDAY WILL CERTAINLY BE THE
MORE ACTIVE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. LIKELY POPS ARE IN PLACE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE FOCUSED ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. 1000-500 MB MEAN
FLOW WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SO SLOW AND MINIMAL STORM MOVEMENT
COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE PRESENCE OF
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE WARMING/DRYING
TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY... PERIODS
OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT KSAV AND KCHS SUGGEST LESS
IMPRESSIVE FOG STABILITY INDICES/PARAMETERS BUT STILL A DECENT
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS IN THE 600 FT TO 1200 FT RANGE NEARING
DAYBREAK. WE MAINTAINED CLOUD TRENDS FROM MVFR TO IFR FROM THE
PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE BUT PLAYED VSBYS A BIT MORE TO THE OPTIMISTIC
SIDE. AFTER MID MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. IN GENERAL...EAST
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 15 KT. SEAS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...WITH PERIODIC INCREASES INTO
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE WITHIN NOCTURNAL SURGES AND ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE WITH THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK...THEN 2-4 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
AND FULL MOON CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 290500
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
100 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL THEN LINGER ALONG OR
NEAR THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHILE A MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A
BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR
A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND...WHICH WILL HELP BUILD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT...AREAS OF LOW
STRATOCU AND STRATUS AND WELL AS SOME FOG MAY FORM. LOW TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
POSITIONED BETWEEN THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND A BROAD TUTT-LIKE
FEATURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW WILL
SIT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MAY EVEN EXTEND BACK INLAND ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA AT TIMES. OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE A RATHER
LACKLUSTER PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF AN INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL CAP
AROUND 800 MB. THE FURTHER INLAND AND WEST YOU GO...THE CAP IS
WEAKER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE COVERAGE ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO POPS
WITH CHANCES WEST OF I-95 AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS VERY UNIMPRESSIVE SO THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS QUITE MINIMAL. OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION AS THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE PUSHES BACK TO THE WEST AND THE OFFSHORE
TROUGH/TUTT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS EVIDENCED
BY PWATS RISING TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WOULD BE AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE. FRIDAY WILL CERTAINLY BE THE
MORE ACTIVE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. LIKELY POPS ARE IN PLACE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE FOCUSED ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. 1000-500 MB MEAN
FLOW WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SO SLOW AND MINIMAL STORM MOVEMENT
COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE PRESENCE OF
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE WARMING/DRYING
TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY... PERIODS
OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT KSAV AND KCHS SUGGEST LESS
IMPRESSIVE FOG STABILITY INDICES/PARAMETERS BUT STILL A DECENT
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS IN THE 600 FT TO 1200 FT RANGE NEARING
DAYBREAK. WE MAINTAINED CLOUD TRENDS FROM MVFR TO IFR FROM THE
PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE BUT PLAYED VSBYS A BIT MORE TO THE OPTIMISTIC
SIDE. AFTER MID MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. IN GENERAL...EAST
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 15 KT. SEAS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...WITH PERIODIC INCREASES INTO
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE WITHIN NOCTURNAL SURGES AND ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE WITH THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK...THEN 2-4 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
AND FULL MOON CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290236 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1036 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SC/NC BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LINGERING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT MAY HELP KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT AGS AND
OGB.

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY AT AGS AND OGB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS MVFR VSBYS AT AGS/OGB BEFORE DAWN
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION
LOW CIGS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TAF
SITES BY 14Z. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND 20Z
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ACTUAL TIMING
AND AREAL COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 290236 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1036 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SC/NC BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LINGERING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT MAY HELP KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT AGS AND
OGB.

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY AT AGS AND OGB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS MVFR VSBYS AT AGS/OGB BEFORE DAWN
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION
LOW CIGS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TAF
SITES BY 14Z. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND 20Z
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ACTUAL TIMING
AND AREAL COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290236 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1036 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SC/NC BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LINGERING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT MAY HELP KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT AGS AND
OGB.

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY AT AGS AND OGB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS MVFR VSBYS AT AGS/OGB BEFORE DAWN
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION
LOW CIGS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TAF
SITES BY 14Z. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND 20Z
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ACTUAL TIMING
AND AREAL COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCHS 290126
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
926 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL THEN LINGER ALONG OR
NEAR THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS EVENING...UPSTREAM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
AREA GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING.

TONIGHT...A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHILE A MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG A BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE.
THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND...WHICH WILL HELP
BUILD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. BY LATE
TONIGHT...STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY FORM...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING GREATER COVERAGE OF FOG OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE
THE HIGHEST DEW POINT POOLING WILL OCCUR. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE
MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG OVER ALL LAND ZONES...WITH AREAS OF FOG OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HOWEVER...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COULD LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
POSITIONED BETWEEN THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND A BROAD TUTT-LIKE
FEATURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW WILL
SIT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MAY EVEN EXTEND BACK INLAND ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA AT TIMES. OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE A RATHER
LACKLUSTER PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF AN INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL CAP
AROUND 800 MB. THE FURTHER INLAND AND WEST YOU GO...THE CAP IS
WEAKER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE COVERAGE ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO POPS
WITH CHANCES WEST OF I-95 AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS VERY UNIMPRESSIVE SO THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS QUITE MINIMAL. OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION AS THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE PUSHES BACK TO THE WEST AND THE OFFSHORE
TROUGH/TUTT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS EVIDENCED
BY PWATS RISING TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WOULD BE AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE. FRIDAY WILL CERTAINLY BE THE
MORE ACTIVE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. LIKELY POPS ARE IN PLACE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE FOCUSED ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. 1000-500 MB MEAN
FLOW WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SO SLOW AND MINIMAL STORM MOVEMENT
COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE PRESENCE OF
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE WARMING/DRYING
TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY... PERIODS
OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN...AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF FOG AND STRATUS AT THE
TERMINALS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
VISIBILITIES AT KSAV. THE FORECAST INDICATES IN THE 09-13Z TIME
FRAME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS...WITH PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAV ALONG WITH TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. IN GENERAL...EAST WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 15 KT. SEAS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...WITH PERIODIC INCREASES INTO
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE WITHIN NOCTURNAL SURGES AND ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE WITH THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK...THEN 2-4 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
AND FULL MOON CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ/DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...DPB/BSH



000
FXUS62 KCHS 290126
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
926 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL THEN LINGER ALONG OR
NEAR THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS EVENING...UPSTREAM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
AREA GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING.

TONIGHT...A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHILE A MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG A BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE.
THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND...WHICH WILL HELP
BUILD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. BY LATE
TONIGHT...STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY FORM...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING GREATER COVERAGE OF FOG OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE
THE HIGHEST DEW POINT POOLING WILL OCCUR. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE
MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG OVER ALL LAND ZONES...WITH AREAS OF FOG OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HOWEVER...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COULD LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
POSITIONED BETWEEN THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND A BROAD TUTT-LIKE
FEATURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW WILL
SIT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MAY EVEN EXTEND BACK INLAND ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA AT TIMES. OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE A RATHER
LACKLUSTER PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF AN INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL CAP
AROUND 800 MB. THE FURTHER INLAND AND WEST YOU GO...THE CAP IS
WEAKER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE COVERAGE ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO POPS
WITH CHANCES WEST OF I-95 AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS VERY UNIMPRESSIVE SO THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS QUITE MINIMAL. OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION AS THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE PUSHES BACK TO THE WEST AND THE OFFSHORE
TROUGH/TUTT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS EVIDENCED
BY PWATS RISING TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WOULD BE AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE. FRIDAY WILL CERTAINLY BE THE
MORE ACTIVE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. LIKELY POPS ARE IN PLACE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE FOCUSED ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. 1000-500 MB MEAN
FLOW WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SO SLOW AND MINIMAL STORM MOVEMENT
COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE PRESENCE OF
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE WARMING/DRYING
TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY... PERIODS
OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN...AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF FOG AND STRATUS AT THE
TERMINALS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
VISIBILITIES AT KSAV. THE FORECAST INDICATES IN THE 09-13Z TIME
FRAME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS...WITH PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAV ALONG WITH TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. IN GENERAL...EAST WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 15 KT. SEAS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...WITH PERIODIC INCREASES INTO
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE WITHIN NOCTURNAL SURGES AND ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE WITH THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK...THEN 2-4 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
AND FULL MOON CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ/DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...DPB/BSH




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290001 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
801 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING
NEARLY 2 INCH PER HOUR RAIN RATES AND SOME FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO BUT THERE
REMAINS SOME INSTABILITY AND MANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD
HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING
ENDS. LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES AND
IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA EARLY THIS EVENING. HRRR INDICATING CONVECTION WILL END LATER
THIS EVENING.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THE MIDLANDS AND THE EASTERN FA. THE MODELS
ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290001 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
801 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING
NEARLY 2 INCH PER HOUR RAIN RATES AND SOME FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO BUT THERE
REMAINS SOME INSTABILITY AND MANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD
HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING
ENDS. LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES AND
IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA EARLY THIS EVENING. HRRR INDICATING CONVECTION WILL END LATER
THIS EVENING.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THE MIDLANDS AND THE EASTERN FA. THE MODELS
ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290001 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
801 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING
NEARLY 2 INCH PER HOUR RAIN RATES AND SOME FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO BUT THERE
REMAINS SOME INSTABILITY AND MANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD
HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING
ENDS. LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES AND
IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA EARLY THIS EVENING. HRRR INDICATING CONVECTION WILL END LATER
THIS EVENING.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THE MIDLANDS AND THE EASTERN FA. THE MODELS
ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290001 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
801 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING
NEARLY 2 INCH PER HOUR RAIN RATES AND SOME FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO BUT THERE
REMAINS SOME INSTABILITY AND MANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD
HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING
ENDS. LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES AND
IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA EARLY THIS EVENING. HRRR INDICATING CONVECTION WILL END LATER
THIS EVENING.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THE MIDLANDS AND THE EASTERN FA. THE MODELS
ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290000
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL THEN LINGER ALONG OR
NEAR THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PERSIST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OR DISSIPATE DUE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING. A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHILE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA
AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND...WHICH WILL
HELP BUILD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. BY
LATE TONIGHT...STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY FORM...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING GREATER COVERAGE OF FOG OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE THE HIGHEST DEW POINT POOLING WILL OCCUR. FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG OVER ALL LAND ZONES...WITH AREAS
OF FOG OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
POSITIONED BETWEEN THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND A BROAD TUTT-LIKE
FEATURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW WILL
SIT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MAY EVEN EXTEND BACK INLAND ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA AT TIMES. OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE A RATHER
LACKLUSTER PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF AN INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL CAP
AROUND 800 MB. THE FURTHER INLAND AND WEST YOU GO...THE CAP IS
WEAKER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE COVERAGE ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO POPS
WITH CHANCES WEST OF I-95 AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS VERY UNIMPRESSIVE SO THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS QUITE MINIMAL. OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION AS THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE PUSHES BACK TO THE WEST AND THE OFFSHORE
TROUGH/TUTT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS EVIDENCED
BY PWATS RISING TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WOULD BE AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE. FRIDAY WILL CERTAINLY BE THE
MORE ACTIVE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. LIKELY POPS ARE IN PLACE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE FOCUSED ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. 1000-500 MB MEAN
FLOW WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SO SLOW AND MINIMAL STORM MOVEMENT
COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE PRESENCE OF
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE WARMING/DRYING
TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY... PERIODS
OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN...AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF FOG AND STRATUS AT THE
TERMINALS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
VISIBILITIES AT KSAV. THE FORECAST INDICATES IN THE 09-13Z TIME
FRAME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS...WITH PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAV ALONG WITH TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. IN GENERAL...EAST WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 15 KT. SEAS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...WITH PERIODIC INCREASES INTO
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE WITHIN NOCTURNAL SURGES AND ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE WITH THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK...THEN 2-4 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
AND FULL MOON CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ/DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...DPB/BSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 290000
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL THEN LINGER ALONG OR
NEAR THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PERSIST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OR DISSIPATE DUE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING. A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHILE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA
AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND...WHICH WILL
HELP BUILD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. BY
LATE TONIGHT...STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY FORM...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING GREATER COVERAGE OF FOG OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE THE HIGHEST DEW POINT POOLING WILL OCCUR. FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG OVER ALL LAND ZONES...WITH AREAS
OF FOG OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
POSITIONED BETWEEN THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND A BROAD TUTT-LIKE
FEATURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW WILL
SIT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MAY EVEN EXTEND BACK INLAND ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA AT TIMES. OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE A RATHER
LACKLUSTER PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF AN INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL CAP
AROUND 800 MB. THE FURTHER INLAND AND WEST YOU GO...THE CAP IS
WEAKER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE COVERAGE ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO POPS
WITH CHANCES WEST OF I-95 AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS VERY UNIMPRESSIVE SO THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS QUITE MINIMAL. OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION AS THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE PUSHES BACK TO THE WEST AND THE OFFSHORE
TROUGH/TUTT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS EVIDENCED
BY PWATS RISING TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WOULD BE AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE. FRIDAY WILL CERTAINLY BE THE
MORE ACTIVE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. LIKELY POPS ARE IN PLACE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE FOCUSED ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. 1000-500 MB MEAN
FLOW WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SO SLOW AND MINIMAL STORM MOVEMENT
COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE PRESENCE OF
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE WARMING/DRYING
TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY... PERIODS
OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN...AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF FOG AND STRATUS AT THE
TERMINALS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
VISIBILITIES AT KSAV. THE FORECAST INDICATES IN THE 09-13Z TIME
FRAME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS...WITH PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAV ALONG WITH TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. IN GENERAL...EAST WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 15 KT. SEAS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...WITH PERIODIC INCREASES INTO
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE WITHIN NOCTURNAL SURGES AND ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE WITH THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK...THEN 2-4 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
AND FULL MOON CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ/DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...DPB/BSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290000
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL THEN LINGER ALONG OR
NEAR THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PERSIST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OR DISSIPATE DUE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING. A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHILE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA
AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND...WHICH WILL
HELP BUILD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. BY
LATE TONIGHT...STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY FORM...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING GREATER COVERAGE OF FOG OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE THE HIGHEST DEW POINT POOLING WILL OCCUR. FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG OVER ALL LAND ZONES...WITH AREAS
OF FOG OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
POSITIONED BETWEEN THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND A BROAD TUTT-LIKE
FEATURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW WILL
SIT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MAY EVEN EXTEND BACK INLAND ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA AT TIMES. OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE A RATHER
LACKLUSTER PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF AN INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL CAP
AROUND 800 MB. THE FURTHER INLAND AND WEST YOU GO...THE CAP IS
WEAKER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE COVERAGE ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO POPS
WITH CHANCES WEST OF I-95 AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS VERY UNIMPRESSIVE SO THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS QUITE MINIMAL. OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION AS THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE PUSHES BACK TO THE WEST AND THE OFFSHORE
TROUGH/TUTT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS EVIDENCED
BY PWATS RISING TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WOULD BE AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE. FRIDAY WILL CERTAINLY BE THE
MORE ACTIVE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. LIKELY POPS ARE IN PLACE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE FOCUSED ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. 1000-500 MB MEAN
FLOW WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SO SLOW AND MINIMAL STORM MOVEMENT
COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE PRESENCE OF
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE WARMING/DRYING
TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY... PERIODS
OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN...AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF FOG AND STRATUS AT THE
TERMINALS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
VISIBILITIES AT KSAV. THE FORECAST INDICATES IN THE 09-13Z TIME
FRAME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS...WITH PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAV ALONG WITH TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. IN GENERAL...EAST WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 15 KT. SEAS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...WITH PERIODIC INCREASES INTO
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE WITHIN NOCTURNAL SURGES AND ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE WITH THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK...THEN 2-4 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
AND FULL MOON CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ/DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...DPB/BSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 290000
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL THEN LINGER ALONG OR
NEAR THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PERSIST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OR DISSIPATE DUE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING. A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHILE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA
AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND...WHICH WILL
HELP BUILD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. BY
LATE TONIGHT...STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY FORM...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING GREATER COVERAGE OF FOG OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE THE HIGHEST DEW POINT POOLING WILL OCCUR. FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG OVER ALL LAND ZONES...WITH AREAS
OF FOG OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
POSITIONED BETWEEN THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND A BROAD TUTT-LIKE
FEATURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW WILL
SIT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MAY EVEN EXTEND BACK INLAND ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA AT TIMES. OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE A RATHER
LACKLUSTER PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF AN INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL CAP
AROUND 800 MB. THE FURTHER INLAND AND WEST YOU GO...THE CAP IS
WEAKER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE COVERAGE ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO POPS
WITH CHANCES WEST OF I-95 AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS VERY UNIMPRESSIVE SO THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS QUITE MINIMAL. OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION AS THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE PUSHES BACK TO THE WEST AND THE OFFSHORE
TROUGH/TUTT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS EVIDENCED
BY PWATS RISING TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WOULD BE AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE. FRIDAY WILL CERTAINLY BE THE
MORE ACTIVE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. LIKELY POPS ARE IN PLACE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE FOCUSED ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. 1000-500 MB MEAN
FLOW WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SO SLOW AND MINIMAL STORM MOVEMENT
COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE PRESENCE OF
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE WARMING/DRYING
TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY... PERIODS
OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN...AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF FOG AND STRATUS AT THE
TERMINALS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
VISIBILITIES AT KSAV. THE FORECAST INDICATES IN THE 09-13Z TIME
FRAME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS...WITH PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAV ALONG WITH TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. IN GENERAL...EAST WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 15 KT. SEAS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...WITH PERIODIC INCREASES INTO
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE WITHIN NOCTURNAL SURGES AND ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE WITH THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK...THEN 2-4 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
AND FULL MOON CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ENHANCEMENT AT TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ/DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...DPB/BSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KFFC 282358
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
758 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY
THAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS INCREASED MOISTURE HAS PUSHED
INTO THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BENIGN AND BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE
MODERATE AND MID-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES AROUND OR JUST OVER 100 DEGREES. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
REASON NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

RW

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA.

CWFA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 500MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS BACK EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CWFA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...EACH ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

ONE OF THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS TO RAISE POPS
IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AS THE SUN IS SETTING. THERE
AREA A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING AROUND THE ATL AREA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ANY CONVECTIVE POP UPS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT WED
AFTERNOON. WINDS NW AT 10KT OR LESS AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE SEEN SOME HIGHER GUST IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOULD BE THE SAME WED AFTERNOON. VSBYS SHOULD
STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  40
ATLANTA         75  91  75  92 /  20  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     67  87  66  89 /  30  40  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  92  73  93 /  20  30  20  40
COLUMBUS        77  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40
GAINESVILLE     74  90  74  91 /  30  30  30  40
MACON           73  95  73  93 /  20  30  30  40
ROME            73  93  74  93 /  20  30  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  73  92  73  92 /  20  30  30  40
VIDALIA         75  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 282358
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
758 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY
THAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS INCREASED MOISTURE HAS PUSHED
INTO THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BENIGN AND BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE
MODERATE AND MID-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES AROUND OR JUST OVER 100 DEGREES. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
REASON NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

RW

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA.

CWFA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 500MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS BACK EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CWFA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...EACH ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

ONE OF THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS TO RAISE POPS
IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AS THE SUN IS SETTING. THERE
AREA A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING AROUND THE ATL AREA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ANY CONVECTIVE POP UPS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT WED
AFTERNOON. WINDS NW AT 10KT OR LESS AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE SEEN SOME HIGHER GUST IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOULD BE THE SAME WED AFTERNOON. VSBYS SHOULD
STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  40
ATLANTA         75  91  75  92 /  20  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     67  87  66  89 /  30  40  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  92  73  93 /  20  30  20  40
COLUMBUS        77  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40
GAINESVILLE     74  90  74  91 /  30  30  30  40
MACON           73  95  73  93 /  20  30  30  40
ROME            73  93  74  93 /  20  30  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  73  92  73  92 /  20  30  30  40
VIDALIA         75  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 282358
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
758 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY
THAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS INCREASED MOISTURE HAS PUSHED
INTO THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BENIGN AND BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE
MODERATE AND MID-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES AROUND OR JUST OVER 100 DEGREES. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
REASON NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

RW

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA.

CWFA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 500MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS BACK EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CWFA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...EACH ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

ONE OF THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS TO RAISE POPS
IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AS THE SUN IS SETTING. THERE
AREA A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING AROUND THE ATL AREA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ANY CONVECTIVE POP UPS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT WED
AFTERNOON. WINDS NW AT 10KT OR LESS AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE SEEN SOME HIGHER GUST IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOULD BE THE SAME WED AFTERNOON. VSBYS SHOULD
STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  40
ATLANTA         75  91  75  92 /  20  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     67  87  66  89 /  30  40  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  92  73  93 /  20  30  20  40
COLUMBUS        77  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40
GAINESVILLE     74  90  74  91 /  30  30  30  40
MACON           73  95  73  93 /  20  30  30  40
ROME            73  93  74  93 /  20  30  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  73  92  73  92 /  20  30  30  40
VIDALIA         75  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 282358
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
758 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY
THAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS INCREASED MOISTURE HAS PUSHED
INTO THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BENIGN AND BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE
MODERATE AND MID-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES AROUND OR JUST OVER 100 DEGREES. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
REASON NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

RW

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA.

CWFA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 500MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS BACK EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CWFA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...EACH ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

ONE OF THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS TO RAISE POPS
IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AS THE SUN IS SETTING. THERE
AREA A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING AROUND THE ATL AREA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ANY CONVECTIVE POP UPS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT WED
AFTERNOON. WINDS NW AT 10KT OR LESS AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE SEEN SOME HIGHER GUST IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOULD BE THE SAME WED AFTERNOON. VSBYS SHOULD
STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  40
ATLANTA         75  91  75  92 /  20  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     67  87  66  89 /  30  40  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  92  73  93 /  20  30  20  40
COLUMBUS        77  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40
GAINESVILLE     74  90  74  91 /  30  30  30  40
MACON           73  95  73  93 /  20  30  30  40
ROME            73  93  74  93 /  20  30  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  73  92  73  92 /  20  30  30  40
VIDALIA         75  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KCAE 282248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM THE CSRA INTO THE CATAWBA
REGION HAS ALLOWED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND 17Z. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2
INCHES. STORM MOTION WILL BE WEAK WITH LITTLE WIND IN THE CLOUD
LAYER. SLOW MOVING CONVECTION WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES MAY RAISE A
FLOODING CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING CUTS OFF.
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES AND
IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA EARLY THIS EVENING. HRRR INDICATING CONVECTION WILL END LATER
THIS EVENING.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THE MIDLANDS AND THE EASTERN FA. THE MODELS
ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 282248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM THE CSRA INTO THE CATAWBA
REGION HAS ALLOWED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND 17Z. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2
INCHES. STORM MOTION WILL BE WEAK WITH LITTLE WIND IN THE CLOUD
LAYER. SLOW MOVING CONVECTION WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES MAY RAISE A
FLOODING CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING CUTS OFF.
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES AND
IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA EARLY THIS EVENING. HRRR INDICATING CONVECTION WILL END LATER
THIS EVENING.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THE MIDLANDS AND THE EASTERN FA. THE MODELS
ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 282248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM THE CSRA INTO THE CATAWBA
REGION HAS ALLOWED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND 17Z. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2
INCHES. STORM MOTION WILL BE WEAK WITH LITTLE WIND IN THE CLOUD
LAYER. SLOW MOVING CONVECTION WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES MAY RAISE A
FLOODING CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING CUTS OFF.
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES AND
IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA EARLY THIS EVENING. HRRR INDICATING CONVECTION WILL END LATER
THIS EVENING.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THE MIDLANDS AND THE EASTERN FA. THE MODELS
ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 282248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM THE CSRA INTO THE CATAWBA
REGION HAS ALLOWED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND 17Z. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2
INCHES. STORM MOTION WILL BE WEAK WITH LITTLE WIND IN THE CLOUD
LAYER. SLOW MOVING CONVECTION WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES MAY RAISE A
FLOODING CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING CUTS OFF.
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES AND
IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA EARLY THIS EVENING. HRRR INDICATING CONVECTION WILL END LATER
THIS EVENING.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THE MIDLANDS AND THE EASTERN FA. THE MODELS
ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCHS 281952
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
352 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL THEN LINGER ALONG OR
NEAR THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PERSIST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OR DISSIPATE DUE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING. A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHILE A MID LVL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...WEAK AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THE
PATTERN WILL FAVOR A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND...WHICH WILL HELP BUILD
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT...STRATUS
AND FOG WILL LIKELY FORM...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING GREATER
COVERAGE OF FOG OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE
MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG OVER ALL LAND ZONES...AND INTRODUCED AREAS
OF FOG OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
POSITIONED BETWEEN THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND A BROAD TUTT-LIKE
FEATURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW WILL
SIT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MAY EVEN EXTEND BACK INLAND ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA AT TIMES. OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE A RATHER
LACKLUSTER PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF AN INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL CAP
AROUND 800 MB. THE FURTHER INLAND AND WEST YOU GO...THE CAP IS
WEAKER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE COVERAGE ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO POPS
WITH CHANCES WEST OF I-95 AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS VERY UNIMPRESSIVE SO THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS QUITE MINIMAL. OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION AS THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE PUSHES BACK TO THE WEST AND THE OFFSHORE
TROUGH/TUTT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS EVIDENCED
BY PWATS RISING TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WOULD BE AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE. FRIDAY WILL CERTAINLY BE THE
MORE ACTIVE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. LIKELY POPS ARE IN PLACE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE FOCUSED ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. 1000-500 MB MEAN
FLOW WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SO SLOW AND MINIMAL STORM MOVEMENT
COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE PRESENCE OF
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE WARMING/DRYING
TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY... PERIODS
OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT BOTH TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY DUE TO FOG. HAVE
MAINTAINED 4SM BR BETWEEN 08Z- 13Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. THERE IS
ALSO A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING
BETWEEN 09Z-13Z...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OCCURRING AT THE SAV
TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN AT BOTH TERMINALS
BETWEEN 13-14Z WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. IN GENERAL...EAST WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. SEAS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...WITH PERIODIC INCREASES INTO
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE WITHIN NOCTURNAL SURGES AND ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE WITH THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK...THEN 2-4 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKES TIDE LEVELS NEAR 7.0 FT
MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING...WHICH
OCCURS AT 628 PM. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR PARTS
OF THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...BUT
THE EVENT LOOKS VERY MARGINAL AT BEST. IF TIDE LEVELS DO NOT REACH
7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION FOR SOME OF THE NORMALLY FLOOD
PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE AND FULL
MOON CYCLE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT
AT TIMES...AND SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN
THE MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KFFC 281930
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
330 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY
THAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS INCREASED MOISTURE HAS PUSHED
INTO THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BENIGN AND BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE
MODERATE AND MID-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES AROUND OR JUST OVER 100 DEGREES. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
REASON NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

RW

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA.

CWFA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 500MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS BACK EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CWFA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...EACH ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

ONE OF THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS TO RAISE POPS
IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NLISTEMAA


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE... DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
BY MIDDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  40
ATLANTA         75  91  75  92 /  20  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     67  87  66  89 /  30  40  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  92  73  93 /  20  30  20  40
COLUMBUS        77  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40
GAINESVILLE     74  90  74  91 /  30  30  30  40
MACON           73  95  73  93 /  20  30  30  40
ROME            73  93  74  93 /  20  30  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  73  92  73  92 /  20  30  30  40
VIDALIA         75  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 281930
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
330 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY
THAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS INCREASED MOISTURE HAS PUSHED
INTO THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BENIGN AND BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE
MODERATE AND MID-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES AROUND OR JUST OVER 100 DEGREES. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
REASON NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

RW

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA.

CWFA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 500MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS BACK EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CWFA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...EACH ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

ONE OF THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS TO RAISE POPS
IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NLISTEMAA


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE... DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
BY MIDDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  40
ATLANTA         75  91  75  92 /  20  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     67  87  66  89 /  30  40  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  92  73  93 /  20  30  20  40
COLUMBUS        77  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40
GAINESVILLE     74  90  74  91 /  30  30  30  40
MACON           73  95  73  93 /  20  30  30  40
ROME            73  93  74  93 /  20  30  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  73  92  73  92 /  20  30  30  40
VIDALIA         75  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 281930
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
330 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY
THAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS INCREASED MOISTURE HAS PUSHED
INTO THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BENIGN AND BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE
MODERATE AND MID-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES AROUND OR JUST OVER 100 DEGREES. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
REASON NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

RW

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA.

CWFA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 500MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS BACK EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CWFA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...EACH ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

ONE OF THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS TO RAISE POPS
IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NLISTEMAA


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE... DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
BY MIDDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  40
ATLANTA         75  91  75  92 /  20  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     67  87  66  89 /  30  40  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  92  73  93 /  20  30  20  40
COLUMBUS        77  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40
GAINESVILLE     74  90  74  91 /  30  30  30  40
MACON           73  95  73  93 /  20  30  30  40
ROME            73  93  74  93 /  20  30  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  73  92  73  92 /  20  30  30  40
VIDALIA         75  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 281930
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
330 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY
THAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS INCREASED MOISTURE HAS PUSHED
INTO THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BENIGN AND BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE
MODERATE AND MID-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES AROUND OR JUST OVER 100 DEGREES. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
REASON NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

RW

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA.

CWFA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 500MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS BACK EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CWFA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...EACH ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

ONE OF THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS TO RAISE POPS
IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NLISTEMAA


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE... DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
BY MIDDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  40
ATLANTA         75  91  75  92 /  20  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     67  87  66  89 /  30  40  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  92  73  93 /  20  30  20  40
COLUMBUS        77  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40
GAINESVILLE     74  90  74  91 /  30  30  30  40
MACON           73  95  73  93 /  20  30  30  40
ROME            73  93  74  93 /  20  30  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  73  92  73  92 /  20  30  30  40
VIDALIA         75  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 281930
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
330 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY
THAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS INCREASED MOISTURE HAS PUSHED
INTO THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BENIGN AND BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE
MODERATE AND MID-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES AROUND OR JUST OVER 100 DEGREES. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
REASON NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

RW

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA.

CWFA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 500MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS BACK EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CWFA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...EACH ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

ONE OF THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS TO RAISE POPS
IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NLISTEMAA


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE... DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
BY MIDDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  40
ATLANTA         75  91  75  92 /  20  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     67  87  66  89 /  30  40  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  92  73  93 /  20  30  20  40
COLUMBUS        77  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40
GAINESVILLE     74  90  74  91 /  30  30  30  40
MACON           73  95  73  93 /  20  30  30  40
ROME            73  93  74  93 /  20  30  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  73  92  73  92 /  20  30  30  40
VIDALIA         75  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...RW



000
FXUS62 KFFC 281930
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
330 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY
THAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS INCREASED MOISTURE HAS PUSHED
INTO THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BENIGN AND BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE
MODERATE AND MID-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES AROUND OR JUST OVER 100 DEGREES. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
REASON NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

RW

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA.

CWFA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 500MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS BACK EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CWFA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...EACH ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

ONE OF THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS TO RAISE POPS
IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NLISTEMAA


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE... DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
BY MIDDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  40
ATLANTA         75  91  75  92 /  20  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     67  87  66  89 /  30  40  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  92  73  93 /  20  30  20  40
COLUMBUS        77  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40
GAINESVILLE     74  90  74  91 /  30  30  30  40
MACON           73  95  73  93 /  20  30  30  40
ROME            73  93  74  93 /  20  30  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  73  92  73  92 /  20  30  30  40
VIDALIA         75  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...RW



000
FXUS62 KCAE 281812
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM THE CSRA INTO THE CATAWBA
REGION HAS ALLOWED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND 17Z. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2
INCHES. STORM MOTION WILL BE WEAK WITH LITTLE WIND IN THE CLOUD
LAYER. SLOW MOVING CONVECTION WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES MAY RAISE A
FLOODING CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING CUTS OFF.
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES AND
IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A LINE OF CONVERGENCE FROM
THE CSRA TO THE CATAWBA REGION. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THE MIDLANDS AND THE EASTERN FA. THE MODELS
ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281812
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM THE CSRA INTO THE CATAWBA
REGION HAS ALLOWED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND 17Z. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2
INCHES. STORM MOTION WILL BE WEAK WITH LITTLE WIND IN THE CLOUD
LAYER. SLOW MOVING CONVECTION WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES MAY RAISE A
FLOODING CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING CUTS OFF.
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES AND
IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A LINE OF CONVERGENCE FROM
THE CSRA TO THE CATAWBA REGION. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THE MIDLANDS AND THE EASTERN FA. THE MODELS
ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281812
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM THE CSRA INTO THE CATAWBA
REGION HAS ALLOWED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND 17Z. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2
INCHES. STORM MOTION WILL BE WEAK WITH LITTLE WIND IN THE CLOUD
LAYER. SLOW MOVING CONVECTION WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES MAY RAISE A
FLOODING CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING CUTS OFF.
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES AND
IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A LINE OF CONVERGENCE FROM
THE CSRA TO THE CATAWBA REGION. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THE MIDLANDS AND THE EASTERN FA. THE MODELS
ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281812
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM THE CSRA INTO THE CATAWBA
REGION HAS ALLOWED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND 17Z. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2
INCHES. STORM MOTION WILL BE WEAK WITH LITTLE WIND IN THE CLOUD
LAYER. SLOW MOVING CONVECTION WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES MAY RAISE A
FLOODING CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING CUTS OFF.
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES AND
IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A LINE OF CONVERGENCE FROM
THE CSRA TO THE CATAWBA REGION. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THE MIDLANDS AND THE EASTERN FA. THE MODELS
ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281812
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM THE CSRA INTO THE CATAWBA
REGION HAS ALLOWED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND 17Z. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2
INCHES. STORM MOTION WILL BE WEAK WITH LITTLE WIND IN THE CLOUD
LAYER. SLOW MOVING CONVECTION WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES MAY RAISE A
FLOODING CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING CUTS OFF.
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES AND
IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A LINE OF CONVERGENCE FROM
THE CSRA TO THE CATAWBA REGION. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THE MIDLANDS AND THE EASTERN FA. THE MODELS
ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KFFC 281811
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
211 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...HEAT INDICES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE HOT BUT STILL LOOK TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INFLUENCE IS NOT
QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WITH SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WE SHOULD SEE...
MAINLY DIURNAL...CONVECTION INCREASING SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS THE NORTH AND
ISOLATED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY AND SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL TO MODERATE AT BEST
AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY...BUT MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER
FORECAST CYCLES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

20

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN SAGGING
INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THEN POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO SOUTH GA ON SUNDAY... PROBABLY IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THAT
CAUSES A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. EITHER WAY...
IT APPEARS A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS ON TAP FOR
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE
REGION... SUPPORTING SCATTERED... TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS AT TIMES...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE GREATER
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA WHERE THE FRONT REMAINS A FOCUS. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST AND ALONG THE GA AND SC
COASTS ON MONDAY... SUGGESTING THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT EAST. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES
SUGGEST MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE
TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREATS OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED.

EXPECT WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL GA EACH
DAY. HOWEVER... BEHIND THE FRONT... A NORTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF NORTH GA BY FRIDAY THAT
COULD PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND.  39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  93  73 /  30  30  30  30
ATLANTA         92  75  93  76 /  30  20  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  88  70 /  30  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  72  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        96  75  95  76 /  20  20  30  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  74 /  30  30  30  30
MACON           96  73  95  73 /  30  20  30  30
ROME            93  71  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  93  70 /  30  20  30  30
VIDALIA         96  75  96  75 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...RW



000
FXUS62 KFFC 281811
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
211 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...HEAT INDICES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE HOT BUT STILL LOOK TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INFLUENCE IS NOT
QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WITH SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WE SHOULD SEE...
MAINLY DIURNAL...CONVECTION INCREASING SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS THE NORTH AND
ISOLATED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY AND SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL TO MODERATE AT BEST
AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY...BUT MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER
FORECAST CYCLES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

20

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN SAGGING
INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THEN POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO SOUTH GA ON SUNDAY... PROBABLY IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THAT
CAUSES A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. EITHER WAY...
IT APPEARS A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS ON TAP FOR
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE
REGION... SUPPORTING SCATTERED... TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS AT TIMES...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE GREATER
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA WHERE THE FRONT REMAINS A FOCUS. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST AND ALONG THE GA AND SC
COASTS ON MONDAY... SUGGESTING THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT EAST. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES
SUGGEST MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE
TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREATS OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED.

EXPECT WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL GA EACH
DAY. HOWEVER... BEHIND THE FRONT... A NORTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF NORTH GA BY FRIDAY THAT
COULD PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND.  39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  93  73 /  30  30  30  30
ATLANTA         92  75  93  76 /  30  20  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  88  70 /  30  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  72  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        96  75  95  76 /  20  20  30  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  74 /  30  30  30  30
MACON           96  73  95  73 /  30  20  30  30
ROME            93  71  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  93  70 /  30  20  30  30
VIDALIA         96  75  96  75 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...RW



000
FXUS62 KFFC 281811
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
211 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...HEAT INDICES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE HOT BUT STILL LOOK TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INFLUENCE IS NOT
QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WITH SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WE SHOULD SEE...
MAINLY DIURNAL...CONVECTION INCREASING SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS THE NORTH AND
ISOLATED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY AND SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL TO MODERATE AT BEST
AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY...BUT MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER
FORECAST CYCLES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

20

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN SAGGING
INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THEN POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO SOUTH GA ON SUNDAY... PROBABLY IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THAT
CAUSES A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. EITHER WAY...
IT APPEARS A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS ON TAP FOR
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE
REGION... SUPPORTING SCATTERED... TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS AT TIMES...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE GREATER
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA WHERE THE FRONT REMAINS A FOCUS. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST AND ALONG THE GA AND SC
COASTS ON MONDAY... SUGGESTING THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT EAST. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES
SUGGEST MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE
TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREATS OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED.

EXPECT WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL GA EACH
DAY. HOWEVER... BEHIND THE FRONT... A NORTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF NORTH GA BY FRIDAY THAT
COULD PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND.  39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  93  73 /  30  30  30  30
ATLANTA         92  75  93  76 /  30  20  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  88  70 /  30  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  72  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        96  75  95  76 /  20  20  30  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  74 /  30  30  30  30
MACON           96  73  95  73 /  30  20  30  30
ROME            93  71  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  93  70 /  30  20  30  30
VIDALIA         96  75  96  75 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...RW



000
FXUS62 KFFC 281811
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
211 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...HEAT INDICES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE HOT BUT STILL LOOK TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INFLUENCE IS NOT
QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WITH SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WE SHOULD SEE...
MAINLY DIURNAL...CONVECTION INCREASING SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS THE NORTH AND
ISOLATED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY AND SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL TO MODERATE AT BEST
AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY...BUT MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER
FORECAST CYCLES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

20

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN SAGGING
INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THEN POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO SOUTH GA ON SUNDAY... PROBABLY IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THAT
CAUSES A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. EITHER WAY...
IT APPEARS A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS ON TAP FOR
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE
REGION... SUPPORTING SCATTERED... TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS AT TIMES...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE GREATER
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA WHERE THE FRONT REMAINS A FOCUS. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST AND ALONG THE GA AND SC
COASTS ON MONDAY... SUGGESTING THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT EAST. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES
SUGGEST MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE
TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREATS OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED.

EXPECT WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL GA EACH
DAY. HOWEVER... BEHIND THE FRONT... A NORTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF NORTH GA BY FRIDAY THAT
COULD PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND.  39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  93  73 /  30  30  30  30
ATLANTA         92  75  93  76 /  30  20  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  88  70 /  30  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  72  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        96  75  95  76 /  20  20  30  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  74 /  30  30  30  30
MACON           96  73  95  73 /  30  20  30  30
ROME            93  71  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  93  70 /  30  20  30  30
VIDALIA         96  75  96  75 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...RW



000
FXUS62 KCHS 281747
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
147 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS AFTERNOON...A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHILE A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. AT
THE SFC...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW OCCURRING ALONG COASTAL AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER
INLAND...MOISTURE LEVELS CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 1.8 TO 2.0
INCHES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING AHEAD OF A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE THAT BEGINS TO ROUND THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST. LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOP REMAIN ON TRACK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF H5
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN UPSTREAM THROUGH TONIGHT...THUS
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN CAPPED AT 20 PERCENT WITH COVERAGE MAINLY
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE
LIMITED A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO CIRRUS CLOUDS ALOFT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS AND MID/UPPER
90S INLAND. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT BOTH
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY DUE
TO FOG. HAVE MAINTAINED 4SM BR BETWEEN 08Z-13Z AT BOTH TERMINALS.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS
OCCURRING BETWEEN 09Z-13Z...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OCCURRING AT
THE SAV TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN AT BOTH
TERMINALS BETWEEN 13-14Z WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE AND A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS. SEAS
SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKES TIDE LEVELS NEAR
7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING FOR
THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST. EVEN IF TIDE
LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...SOME
VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN SOME OF THE
NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...ASSUMING
LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS EVENING/S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 281747
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
147 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS AFTERNOON...A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHILE A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. AT
THE SFC...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW OCCURRING ALONG COASTAL AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER
INLAND...MOISTURE LEVELS CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 1.8 TO 2.0
INCHES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING AHEAD OF A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE THAT BEGINS TO ROUND THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST. LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOP REMAIN ON TRACK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF H5
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN UPSTREAM THROUGH TONIGHT...THUS
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN CAPPED AT 20 PERCENT WITH COVERAGE MAINLY
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE
LIMITED A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO CIRRUS CLOUDS ALOFT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS AND MID/UPPER
90S INLAND. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT BOTH
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY DUE
TO FOG. HAVE MAINTAINED 4SM BR BETWEEN 08Z-13Z AT BOTH TERMINALS.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS
OCCURRING BETWEEN 09Z-13Z...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OCCURRING AT
THE SAV TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN AT BOTH
TERMINALS BETWEEN 13-14Z WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE AND A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS. SEAS
SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKES TIDE LEVELS NEAR
7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING FOR
THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST. EVEN IF TIDE
LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...SOME
VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN SOME OF THE
NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...ASSUMING
LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS EVENING/S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 281747
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
147 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS AFTERNOON...A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHILE A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. AT
THE SFC...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW OCCURRING ALONG COASTAL AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER
INLAND...MOISTURE LEVELS CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 1.8 TO 2.0
INCHES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING AHEAD OF A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE THAT BEGINS TO ROUND THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST. LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOP REMAIN ON TRACK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF H5
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN UPSTREAM THROUGH TONIGHT...THUS
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN CAPPED AT 20 PERCENT WITH COVERAGE MAINLY
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE
LIMITED A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO CIRRUS CLOUDS ALOFT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS AND MID/UPPER
90S INLAND. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT BOTH
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY DUE
TO FOG. HAVE MAINTAINED 4SM BR BETWEEN 08Z-13Z AT BOTH TERMINALS.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS
OCCURRING BETWEEN 09Z-13Z...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OCCURRING AT
THE SAV TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN AT BOTH
TERMINALS BETWEEN 13-14Z WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE AND A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS. SEAS
SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKES TIDE LEVELS NEAR
7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING FOR
THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST. EVEN IF TIDE
LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...SOME
VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN SOME OF THE
NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...ASSUMING
LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS EVENING/S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281747
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
147 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS AFTERNOON...A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHILE A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. AT
THE SFC...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW OCCURRING ALONG COASTAL AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER
INLAND...MOISTURE LEVELS CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 1.8 TO 2.0
INCHES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING AHEAD OF A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE THAT BEGINS TO ROUND THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST. LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOP REMAIN ON TRACK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF H5
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN UPSTREAM THROUGH TONIGHT...THUS
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN CAPPED AT 20 PERCENT WITH COVERAGE MAINLY
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE
LIMITED A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO CIRRUS CLOUDS ALOFT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS AND MID/UPPER
90S INLAND. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT BOTH
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY DUE
TO FOG. HAVE MAINTAINED 4SM BR BETWEEN 08Z-13Z AT BOTH TERMINALS.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS
OCCURRING BETWEEN 09Z-13Z...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OCCURRING AT
THE SAV TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN AT BOTH
TERMINALS BETWEEN 13-14Z WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE AND A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS. SEAS
SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKES TIDE LEVELS NEAR
7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING FOR
THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST. EVEN IF TIDE
LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...SOME
VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN SOME OF THE
NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...ASSUMING
LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS EVENING/S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281719
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
119 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS AFTERNOON...A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHILE A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. AT
THE SFC...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW OCCURRING ALONG COASTAL AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER
INLAND...MOISTURE LEVELS CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 1.8 TO 2.0
INCHES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING AHEAD OF A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE THAT BEGINS TO ROUND THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST. LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOP REMAIN ON TRACK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF H5
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN UPSTREAM THROUGH TONIGHT...THUS
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN CAPPED AT 20 PERCENT WITH COVERAGE MAINLY
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE
LIMITED A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO CIRRUS CLOUDS ALOFT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS AND MID/UPPER
90S INLAND. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
EITHER TERMINAL DUE TO FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE AND A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS. SEAS
SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKES TIDE LEVELS NEAR
7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING FOR
THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST. EVEN IF TIDE
LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...SOME
VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN SOME OF THE
NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...ASSUMING
LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS EVENING/S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 281719
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
119 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS AFTERNOON...A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHILE A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. AT
THE SFC...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW OCCURRING ALONG COASTAL AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER
INLAND...MOISTURE LEVELS CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 1.8 TO 2.0
INCHES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING AHEAD OF A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE THAT BEGINS TO ROUND THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST. LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOP REMAIN ON TRACK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF H5
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN UPSTREAM THROUGH TONIGHT...THUS
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN CAPPED AT 20 PERCENT WITH COVERAGE MAINLY
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE
LIMITED A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO CIRRUS CLOUDS ALOFT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS AND MID/UPPER
90S INLAND. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
EITHER TERMINAL DUE TO FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE AND A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS. SEAS
SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKES TIDE LEVELS NEAR
7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING FOR
THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST. EVEN IF TIDE
LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...SOME
VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN SOME OF THE
NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...ASSUMING
LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS EVENING/S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281702
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
102 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST COAST. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING OVER RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLE
FORCING FROM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE LARGEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR
LESS. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING. HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY BE
TOO WIDELY SCATTERED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. IF CONVECTION INITIATES
IT IS MOSTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA.

EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. THE MODELS ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN
RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 281702
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
102 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST COAST. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING OVER RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLE
FORCING FROM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE LARGEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR
LESS. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING. HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY BE
TOO WIDELY SCATTERED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. IF CONVECTION INITIATES
IT IS MOSTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA.

EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. THE MODELS ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN
RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281702
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
102 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST COAST. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING OVER RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLE
FORCING FROM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE LARGEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR
LESS. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING. HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY BE
TOO WIDELY SCATTERED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. IF CONVECTION INITIATES
IT IS MOSTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA.

EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. THE MODELS ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN
RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 281702
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
102 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST COAST. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING OVER RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLE
FORCING FROM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE LARGEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR
LESS. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING. HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY BE
TOO WIDELY SCATTERED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. IF CONVECTION INITIATES
IT IS MOSTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA.

EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. THE MODELS ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN
RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281515
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1115 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST COAST. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING OVER RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLE
FORCING FROM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE LARGEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING TONIGHT.
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR
LESS. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING. HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY BE
TOO WIDELY SCATTERED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. IF CONVECTION INITIATES
IT IS MOSTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA.

EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. THE MODELS ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN
RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281515
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1115 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST COAST. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING OVER RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLE
FORCING FROM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE LARGEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING TONIGHT.
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR
LESS. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING. HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY BE
TOO WIDELY SCATTERED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. IF CONVECTION INITIATES
IT IS MOSTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA.

EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. THE MODELS ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN
RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 281515
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1115 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST COAST. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING OVER RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLE
FORCING FROM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE LARGEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING TONIGHT.
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR
LESS. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING. HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY BE
TOO WIDELY SCATTERED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. IF CONVECTION INITIATES
IT IS MOSTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA.

EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. THE MODELS ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN
RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281445
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1045 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHILE A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A
BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW
OCCURRING ALONG COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER INLAND...MOISTURE
LEVELS CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES SHOULD SUPPORT
A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING AHEAD OF A
WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE THAT BEGINS TO ROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE BULK OF H5 SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN UPSTREAM THROUGH TONIGHT...THUS PRECIP CHANCES HAVE
BEEN CAPPED AT 20 PERCENT WITH COVERAGE MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
95.

OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE
LIMITED A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO CIRRUS CLOUDS ALOFT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS AND MID/UPPER
90S INLAND. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
EITHER TERMINAL DUE TO FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE AND A SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. SEAS SHOULD
BE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKES TIDE LEVELS NEAR
7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING FOR
THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST. EVEN IF TIDE
LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...SOME
VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN SOME OF THE
NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...ASSUMING
LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS EVENING/S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281445
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1045 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHILE A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A
BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW
OCCURRING ALONG COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER INLAND...MOISTURE
LEVELS CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES SHOULD SUPPORT
A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING AHEAD OF A
WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE THAT BEGINS TO ROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE BULK OF H5 SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN UPSTREAM THROUGH TONIGHT...THUS PRECIP CHANCES HAVE
BEEN CAPPED AT 20 PERCENT WITH COVERAGE MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
95.

OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE
LIMITED A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO CIRRUS CLOUDS ALOFT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS AND MID/UPPER
90S INLAND. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
EITHER TERMINAL DUE TO FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE AND A SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. SEAS SHOULD
BE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKES TIDE LEVELS NEAR
7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING FOR
THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST. EVEN IF TIDE
LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...SOME
VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN SOME OF THE
NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...ASSUMING
LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS EVENING/S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KFFC 281420
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1020 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015


.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...HEAT INDICES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE HOT BUT STILL LOOK TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INFLUENCE IS NOT
QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WITH SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WE SHOULD SEE...
MAINLY DIURNAL...CONVECTION INCREASING SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS THE NORTH AND
ISOLATED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY AND SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL TO MODERATE AT BEST
AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY...BUT MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER
FORECAST CYCLES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

20

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN SAGGING
INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THEN POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO SOUTH GA ON SUNDAY... PROBABLY IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THAT
CAUSES A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. EITHER WAY...
IT APPEARS A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS ON TAP FOR
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE
REGION... SUPPORTING SCATTERED... TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS AT TIMES...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE GREATER
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA WHERE THE FRONT REMAINS A FOCUS. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST AND ALONG THE GA AND SC
COASTS ON MONDAY... SUGGESTING THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT EAST. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES
SUGGEST MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE
TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREATS OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED.

EXPECT WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL GA EACH
DAY. HOWEVER... BEHIND THE FRONT... A NORTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF NORTH GA BY FRIDAY THAT
COULD PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND.  39

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...HOWEVER
ONLY TAF SITES I EXPECT ANY BRIEF IMPACTS ARE KAHN/KPDK...KFTY AND
KMCN MAY SEE BRIEF 6SM VISIBILITIES THROUGH 14Z AS WELL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL MOST LIKELY FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY AT MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON/
EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT IN THE KAHN VICINITY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  93  73 /  30  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  93  76 /  30  20  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  88  70 /  30  30  40  30
CARTERSVILLE    93  72  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        96  75  95  76 /  20  20  40  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  74 /  30  30  40  30
MACON           96  73  95  73 /  20  20  40  30
ROME            93  71  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  93  70 /  30  20  30  30
VIDALIA         96  75  96  75 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 281420
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1020 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015


.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...HEAT INDICES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE HOT BUT STILL LOOK TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INFLUENCE IS NOT
QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WITH SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WE SHOULD SEE...
MAINLY DIURNAL...CONVECTION INCREASING SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS THE NORTH AND
ISOLATED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY AND SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL TO MODERATE AT BEST
AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY...BUT MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER
FORECAST CYCLES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

20

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN SAGGING
INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THEN POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO SOUTH GA ON SUNDAY... PROBABLY IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THAT
CAUSES A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. EITHER WAY...
IT APPEARS A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS ON TAP FOR
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE
REGION... SUPPORTING SCATTERED... TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS AT TIMES...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE GREATER
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA WHERE THE FRONT REMAINS A FOCUS. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST AND ALONG THE GA AND SC
COASTS ON MONDAY... SUGGESTING THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT EAST. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES
SUGGEST MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE
TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREATS OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED.

EXPECT WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL GA EACH
DAY. HOWEVER... BEHIND THE FRONT... A NORTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF NORTH GA BY FRIDAY THAT
COULD PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND.  39

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...HOWEVER
ONLY TAF SITES I EXPECT ANY BRIEF IMPACTS ARE KAHN/KPDK...KFTY AND
KMCN MAY SEE BRIEF 6SM VISIBILITIES THROUGH 14Z AS WELL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL MOST LIKELY FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY AT MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON/
EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT IN THE KAHN VICINITY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  93  73 /  30  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  93  76 /  30  20  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  88  70 /  30  30  40  30
CARTERSVILLE    93  72  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        96  75  95  76 /  20  20  40  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  74 /  30  30  40  30
MACON           96  73  95  73 /  20  20  40  30
ROME            93  71  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  93  70 /  30  20  30  30
VIDALIA         96  75  96  75 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 281420
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1020 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015


.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...HEAT INDICES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE HOT BUT STILL LOOK TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INFLUENCE IS NOT
QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WITH SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WE SHOULD SEE...
MAINLY DIURNAL...CONVECTION INCREASING SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS THE NORTH AND
ISOLATED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY AND SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL TO MODERATE AT BEST
AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY...BUT MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER
FORECAST CYCLES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

20

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN SAGGING
INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THEN POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO SOUTH GA ON SUNDAY... PROBABLY IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THAT
CAUSES A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. EITHER WAY...
IT APPEARS A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS ON TAP FOR
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE
REGION... SUPPORTING SCATTERED... TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS AT TIMES...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE GREATER
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA WHERE THE FRONT REMAINS A FOCUS. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST AND ALONG THE GA AND SC
COASTS ON MONDAY... SUGGESTING THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT EAST. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES
SUGGEST MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE
TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREATS OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED.

EXPECT WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL GA EACH
DAY. HOWEVER... BEHIND THE FRONT... A NORTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF NORTH GA BY FRIDAY THAT
COULD PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND.  39

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...HOWEVER
ONLY TAF SITES I EXPECT ANY BRIEF IMPACTS ARE KAHN/KPDK...KFTY AND
KMCN MAY SEE BRIEF 6SM VISIBILITIES THROUGH 14Z AS WELL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL MOST LIKELY FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY AT MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON/
EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT IN THE KAHN VICINITY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  93  73 /  30  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  93  76 /  30  20  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  88  70 /  30  30  40  30
CARTERSVILLE    93  72  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        96  75  95  76 /  20  20  40  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  74 /  30  30  40  30
MACON           96  73  95  73 /  20  20  40  30
ROME            93  71  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  93  70 /  30  20  30  30
VIDALIA         96  75  96  75 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 281420
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1020 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015


.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...HEAT INDICES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE HOT BUT STILL LOOK TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INFLUENCE IS NOT
QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WITH SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WE SHOULD SEE...
MAINLY DIURNAL...CONVECTION INCREASING SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS THE NORTH AND
ISOLATED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY AND SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL TO MODERATE AT BEST
AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY...BUT MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER
FORECAST CYCLES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

20

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN SAGGING
INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THEN POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO SOUTH GA ON SUNDAY... PROBABLY IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THAT
CAUSES A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. EITHER WAY...
IT APPEARS A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS ON TAP FOR
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE
REGION... SUPPORTING SCATTERED... TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS AT TIMES...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE GREATER
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA WHERE THE FRONT REMAINS A FOCUS. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST AND ALONG THE GA AND SC
COASTS ON MONDAY... SUGGESTING THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT EAST. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES
SUGGEST MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE
TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREATS OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED.

EXPECT WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL GA EACH
DAY. HOWEVER... BEHIND THE FRONT... A NORTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF NORTH GA BY FRIDAY THAT
COULD PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND.  39

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...HOWEVER
ONLY TAF SITES I EXPECT ANY BRIEF IMPACTS ARE KAHN/KPDK...KFTY AND
KMCN MAY SEE BRIEF 6SM VISIBILITIES THROUGH 14Z AS WELL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL MOST LIKELY FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY AT MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON/
EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT IN THE KAHN VICINITY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  93  73 /  30  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  93  76 /  30  20  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  88  70 /  30  30  40  30
CARTERSVILLE    93  72  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        96  75  95  76 /  20  20  40  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  74 /  30  30  40  30
MACON           96  73  95  73 /  20  20  40  30
ROME            93  71  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  93  70 /  30  20  30  30
VIDALIA         96  75  96  75 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 281420
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1020 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015


.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...HEAT INDICES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE HOT BUT STILL LOOK TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INFLUENCE IS NOT
QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WITH SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WE SHOULD SEE...
MAINLY DIURNAL...CONVECTION INCREASING SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS THE NORTH AND
ISOLATED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY AND SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL TO MODERATE AT BEST
AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY...BUT MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER
FORECAST CYCLES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

20

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN SAGGING
INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THEN POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO SOUTH GA ON SUNDAY... PROBABLY IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THAT
CAUSES A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. EITHER WAY...
IT APPEARS A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS ON TAP FOR
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE
REGION... SUPPORTING SCATTERED... TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS AT TIMES...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE GREATER
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA WHERE THE FRONT REMAINS A FOCUS. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST AND ALONG THE GA AND SC
COASTS ON MONDAY... SUGGESTING THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT EAST. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES
SUGGEST MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE
TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREATS OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED.

EXPECT WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL GA EACH
DAY. HOWEVER... BEHIND THE FRONT... A NORTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF NORTH GA BY FRIDAY THAT
COULD PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND.  39

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...HOWEVER
ONLY TAF SITES I EXPECT ANY BRIEF IMPACTS ARE KAHN/KPDK...KFTY AND
KMCN MAY SEE BRIEF 6SM VISIBILITIES THROUGH 14Z AS WELL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL MOST LIKELY FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY AT MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON/
EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT IN THE KAHN VICINITY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  93  73 /  30  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  93  76 /  30  20  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  88  70 /  30  30  40  30
CARTERSVILLE    93  72  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        96  75  95  76 /  20  20  40  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  74 /  30  30  40  30
MACON           96  73  95  73 /  20  20  40  30
ROME            93  71  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  93  70 /  30  20  30  30
VIDALIA         96  75  96  75 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...RW



000
FXUS62 KFFC 281420
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1020 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015


.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...HEAT INDICES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE HOT BUT STILL LOOK TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INFLUENCE IS NOT
QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WITH SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WE SHOULD SEE...
MAINLY DIURNAL...CONVECTION INCREASING SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS THE NORTH AND
ISOLATED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY AND SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL TO MODERATE AT BEST
AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY...BUT MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER
FORECAST CYCLES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

20

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN SAGGING
INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THEN POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO SOUTH GA ON SUNDAY... PROBABLY IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THAT
CAUSES A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. EITHER WAY...
IT APPEARS A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS ON TAP FOR
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE
REGION... SUPPORTING SCATTERED... TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS AT TIMES...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE GREATER
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA WHERE THE FRONT REMAINS A FOCUS. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST AND ALONG THE GA AND SC
COASTS ON MONDAY... SUGGESTING THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT EAST. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES
SUGGEST MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE
TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREATS OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED.

EXPECT WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL GA EACH
DAY. HOWEVER... BEHIND THE FRONT... A NORTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF NORTH GA BY FRIDAY THAT
COULD PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND.  39

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...HOWEVER
ONLY TAF SITES I EXPECT ANY BRIEF IMPACTS ARE KAHN/KPDK...KFTY AND
KMCN MAY SEE BRIEF 6SM VISIBILITIES THROUGH 14Z AS WELL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL MOST LIKELY FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY AT MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON/
EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT IN THE KAHN VICINITY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  93  73 /  30  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  93  76 /  30  20  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  88  70 /  30  30  40  30
CARTERSVILLE    93  72  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        96  75  95  76 /  20  20  40  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  74 /  30  30  40  30
MACON           96  73  95  73 /  20  20  40  30
ROME            93  71  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  93  70 /  30  20  30  30
VIDALIA         96  75  96  75 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281307
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
907 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
ADJACENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS THE SURFACE...DUAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE
NOTED ALONG A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF STREAM
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTS. THE LOW CENTERS WILL REMAIN
ILL-DEFINED TODAY AND LIKELY DISSIPATE AT SOME POINT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT AND MUGGY DAY FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE RATHER WEAK SO ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. TWENTY PERCENT POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SYNOPTIC
REGIME AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH RAPID
IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. VFR FOR BOTH KCHS/KSAV FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A MORE UNIFORM EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS
AVERAGING 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKE TIDE
LEVELS VERY NEAR 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING FOR THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.
EVEN IF TIDE LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...SOME VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
ASSUMING LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...SPR/ST
MARINE...SPR/ST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 281307
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
907 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
ADJACENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS THE SURFACE...DUAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE
NOTED ALONG A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF STREAM
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTS. THE LOW CENTERS WILL REMAIN
ILL-DEFINED TODAY AND LIKELY DISSIPATE AT SOME POINT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT AND MUGGY DAY FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE RATHER WEAK SO ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. TWENTY PERCENT POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SYNOPTIC
REGIME AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH RAPID
IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. VFR FOR BOTH KCHS/KSAV FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A MORE UNIFORM EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS
AVERAGING 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKE TIDE
LEVELS VERY NEAR 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING FOR THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.
EVEN IF TIDE LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...SOME VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
ASSUMING LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...SPR/ST
MARINE...SPR/ST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 281307
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
907 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
ADJACENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS THE SURFACE...DUAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE
NOTED ALONG A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF STREAM
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTS. THE LOW CENTERS WILL REMAIN
ILL-DEFINED TODAY AND LIKELY DISSIPATE AT SOME POINT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT AND MUGGY DAY FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE RATHER WEAK SO ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. TWENTY PERCENT POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SYNOPTIC
REGIME AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH RAPID
IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. VFR FOR BOTH KCHS/KSAV FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A MORE UNIFORM EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS
AVERAGING 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKE TIDE
LEVELS VERY NEAR 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING FOR THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.
EVEN IF TIDE LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...SOME VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
ASSUMING LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...SPR/ST
MARINE...SPR/ST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 281307
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
907 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
ADJACENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS THE SURFACE...DUAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE
NOTED ALONG A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF STREAM
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTS. THE LOW CENTERS WILL REMAIN
ILL-DEFINED TODAY AND LIKELY DISSIPATE AT SOME POINT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT AND MUGGY DAY FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE RATHER WEAK SO ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. TWENTY PERCENT POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SYNOPTIC
REGIME AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH RAPID
IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. VFR FOR BOTH KCHS/KSAV FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A MORE UNIFORM EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS
AVERAGING 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKE TIDE
LEVELS VERY NEAR 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING FOR THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.
EVEN IF TIDE LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...SOME VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
ASSUMING LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...SPR/ST
MARINE...SPR/ST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 281307
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
907 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
ADJACENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS THE SURFACE...DUAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE
NOTED ALONG A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF STREAM
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTS. THE LOW CENTERS WILL REMAIN
ILL-DEFINED TODAY AND LIKELY DISSIPATE AT SOME POINT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT AND MUGGY DAY FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE RATHER WEAK SO ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. TWENTY PERCENT POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SYNOPTIC
REGIME AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH RAPID
IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. VFR FOR BOTH KCHS/KSAV FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A MORE UNIFORM EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS
AVERAGING 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKE TIDE
LEVELS VERY NEAR 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING FOR THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.
EVEN IF TIDE LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...SOME VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
ASSUMING LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...SPR/ST
MARINE...SPR/ST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281307
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
907 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
ADJACENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS THE SURFACE...DUAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE
NOTED ALONG A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF STREAM
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTS. THE LOW CENTERS WILL REMAIN
ILL-DEFINED TODAY AND LIKELY DISSIPATE AT SOME POINT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT AND MUGGY DAY FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE RATHER WEAK SO ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. TWENTY PERCENT POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SYNOPTIC
REGIME AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH RAPID
IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. VFR FOR BOTH KCHS/KSAV FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A MORE UNIFORM EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS
AVERAGING 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKE TIDE
LEVELS VERY NEAR 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING FOR THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.
EVEN IF TIDE LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...SOME VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
ASSUMING LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...SPR/ST
MARINE...SPR/ST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KFFC 281134 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
735 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INFLUENCE IS NOT
QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WITH SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WE SHOULD SEE...
MAINLY DIURNAL...CONVECTION INCREASING SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS THE NORTH AND
ISOLATED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY AND SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL TO MODERATE AT BEST
AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY...BUT MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER
FORECAST CYCLES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

20


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN SAGGING
INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THEN POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO SOUTH GA ON SUNDAY... PROBABLY IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THAT
CAUSES A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. EITHER WAY...
IT APPEARS A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS ON TAP FOR
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE
REGION... SUPPORTING SCATTERED... TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS AT TIMES...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE GREATER
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA WHERE THE FRONT REMAINS A FOCUS. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST AND ALONG THE GA AND SC
COASTS ON MONDAY... SUGGESTING THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT EAST. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES
SUGGEST MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE
TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREATS OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED.

EXPECT WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL GA EACH
DAY. HOWEVER... BEHIND THE FRONT... A NORTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF NORTH GA BY FRIDAY THAT
COULD PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND.  39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...HOWEVER
ONLY TAF SITES I EXPECT ANY BRIEF IMPACTS ARE KAHN/KPDK...KFTY AND
KMCN MAY SEE BRIEF 6SM VISIBILITIES THROUGH 14Z AS WELL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL MOST LIKELY FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY AT MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON/
EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT IN THE KAHN VICINITY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  93  73 /  30  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  93  76 /  30  20  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  88  70 /  30  30  40  30
CARTERSVILLE    93  72  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        96  75  95  76 /  20  20  40  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  74 /  30  30  40  30
MACON           96  73  95  73 /  20  20  40  30
ROME            93  71  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  93  70 /  30  20  30  30
VIDALIA         96  75  96  75 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20



000
FXUS62 KFFC 281134 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
735 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INFLUENCE IS NOT
QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WITH SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WE SHOULD SEE...
MAINLY DIURNAL...CONVECTION INCREASING SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS THE NORTH AND
ISOLATED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY AND SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL TO MODERATE AT BEST
AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY...BUT MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER
FORECAST CYCLES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

20


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN SAGGING
INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THEN POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO SOUTH GA ON SUNDAY... PROBABLY IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THAT
CAUSES A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. EITHER WAY...
IT APPEARS A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS ON TAP FOR
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE
REGION... SUPPORTING SCATTERED... TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS AT TIMES...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE GREATER
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA WHERE THE FRONT REMAINS A FOCUS. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST AND ALONG THE GA AND SC
COASTS ON MONDAY... SUGGESTING THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT EAST. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES
SUGGEST MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE
TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREATS OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED.

EXPECT WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL GA EACH
DAY. HOWEVER... BEHIND THE FRONT... A NORTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF NORTH GA BY FRIDAY THAT
COULD PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND.  39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...HOWEVER
ONLY TAF SITES I EXPECT ANY BRIEF IMPACTS ARE KAHN/KPDK...KFTY AND
KMCN MAY SEE BRIEF 6SM VISIBILITIES THROUGH 14Z AS WELL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL MOST LIKELY FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY AT MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON/
EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT IN THE KAHN VICINITY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  93  73 /  30  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  93  76 /  30  20  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  88  70 /  30  30  40  30
CARTERSVILLE    93  72  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        96  75  95  76 /  20  20  40  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  74 /  30  30  40  30
MACON           96  73  95  73 /  20  20  40  30
ROME            93  71  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  93  70 /  30  20  30  30
VIDALIA         96  75  96  75 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 281134 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
735 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INFLUENCE IS NOT
QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WITH SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WE SHOULD SEE...
MAINLY DIURNAL...CONVECTION INCREASING SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS THE NORTH AND
ISOLATED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY AND SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL TO MODERATE AT BEST
AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY...BUT MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER
FORECAST CYCLES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

20


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN SAGGING
INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THEN POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO SOUTH GA ON SUNDAY... PROBABLY IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THAT
CAUSES A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. EITHER WAY...
IT APPEARS A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS ON TAP FOR
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE
REGION... SUPPORTING SCATTERED... TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS AT TIMES...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE GREATER
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA WHERE THE FRONT REMAINS A FOCUS. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST AND ALONG THE GA AND SC
COASTS ON MONDAY... SUGGESTING THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT EAST. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES
SUGGEST MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE
TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREATS OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED.

EXPECT WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL GA EACH
DAY. HOWEVER... BEHIND THE FRONT... A NORTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF NORTH GA BY FRIDAY THAT
COULD PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND.  39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...HOWEVER
ONLY TAF SITES I EXPECT ANY BRIEF IMPACTS ARE KAHN/KPDK...KFTY AND
KMCN MAY SEE BRIEF 6SM VISIBILITIES THROUGH 14Z AS WELL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL MOST LIKELY FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY AT MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON/
EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT IN THE KAHN VICINITY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  93  73 /  30  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  93  76 /  30  20  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  88  70 /  30  30  40  30
CARTERSVILLE    93  72  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        96  75  95  76 /  20  20  40  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  74 /  30  30  40  30
MACON           96  73  95  73 /  20  20  40  30
ROME            93  71  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  93  70 /  30  20  30  30
VIDALIA         96  75  96  75 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 281134 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
735 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INFLUENCE IS NOT
QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WITH SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WE SHOULD SEE...
MAINLY DIURNAL...CONVECTION INCREASING SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS THE NORTH AND
ISOLATED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY AND SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL TO MODERATE AT BEST
AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY...BUT MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER
FORECAST CYCLES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

20


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN SAGGING
INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THEN POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO SOUTH GA ON SUNDAY... PROBABLY IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THAT
CAUSES A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. EITHER WAY...
IT APPEARS A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS ON TAP FOR
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE
REGION... SUPPORTING SCATTERED... TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS AT TIMES...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE GREATER
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA WHERE THE FRONT REMAINS A FOCUS. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST AND ALONG THE GA AND SC
COASTS ON MONDAY... SUGGESTING THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT EAST. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES
SUGGEST MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE
TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREATS OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED.

EXPECT WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL GA EACH
DAY. HOWEVER... BEHIND THE FRONT... A NORTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF NORTH GA BY FRIDAY THAT
COULD PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND.  39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...HOWEVER
ONLY TAF SITES I EXPECT ANY BRIEF IMPACTS ARE KAHN/KPDK...KFTY AND
KMCN MAY SEE BRIEF 6SM VISIBILITIES THROUGH 14Z AS WELL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL MOST LIKELY FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY AT MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON/
EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT IN THE KAHN VICINITY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  93  73 /  30  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  93  76 /  30  20  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  88  70 /  30  30  40  30
CARTERSVILLE    93  72  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        96  75  95  76 /  20  20  40  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  74 /  30  30  40  30
MACON           96  73  95  73 /  20  20  40  30
ROME            93  71  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  93  70 /  30  20  30  30
VIDALIA         96  75  96  75 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 281134 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
735 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INFLUENCE IS NOT
QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WITH SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WE SHOULD SEE...
MAINLY DIURNAL...CONVECTION INCREASING SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS THE NORTH AND
ISOLATED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY AND SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL TO MODERATE AT BEST
AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY...BUT MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER
FORECAST CYCLES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

20


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN SAGGING
INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THEN POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO SOUTH GA ON SUNDAY... PROBABLY IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THAT
CAUSES A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. EITHER WAY...
IT APPEARS A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS ON TAP FOR
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE
REGION... SUPPORTING SCATTERED... TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS AT TIMES...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE GREATER
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA WHERE THE FRONT REMAINS A FOCUS. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST AND ALONG THE GA AND SC
COASTS ON MONDAY... SUGGESTING THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT EAST. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES
SUGGEST MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE
TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREATS OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED.

EXPECT WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL GA EACH
DAY. HOWEVER... BEHIND THE FRONT... A NORTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF NORTH GA BY FRIDAY THAT
COULD PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND.  39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...HOWEVER
ONLY TAF SITES I EXPECT ANY BRIEF IMPACTS ARE KAHN/KPDK...KFTY AND
KMCN MAY SEE BRIEF 6SM VISIBILITIES THROUGH 14Z AS WELL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL MOST LIKELY FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY AT MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON/
EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT IN THE KAHN VICINITY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  93  73 /  30  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  93  76 /  30  20  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  88  70 /  30  30  40  30
CARTERSVILLE    93  72  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        96  75  95  76 /  20  20  40  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  74 /  30  30  40  30
MACON           96  73  95  73 /  20  20  40  30
ROME            93  71  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  93  70 /  30  20  30  30
VIDALIA         96  75  96  75 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 281134 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
735 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INFLUENCE IS NOT
QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WITH SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WE SHOULD SEE...
MAINLY DIURNAL...CONVECTION INCREASING SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS THE NORTH AND
ISOLATED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY AND SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL TO MODERATE AT BEST
AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY...BUT MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER
FORECAST CYCLES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

20


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN SAGGING
INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THEN POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO SOUTH GA ON SUNDAY... PROBABLY IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THAT
CAUSES A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. EITHER WAY...
IT APPEARS A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS ON TAP FOR
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE
REGION... SUPPORTING SCATTERED... TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS AT TIMES...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE GREATER
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA WHERE THE FRONT REMAINS A FOCUS. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST AND ALONG THE GA AND SC
COASTS ON MONDAY... SUGGESTING THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT EAST. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES
SUGGEST MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE
TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREATS OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED.

EXPECT WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL GA EACH
DAY. HOWEVER... BEHIND THE FRONT... A NORTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF NORTH GA BY FRIDAY THAT
COULD PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND.  39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...HOWEVER
ONLY TAF SITES I EXPECT ANY BRIEF IMPACTS ARE KAHN/KPDK...KFTY AND
KMCN MAY SEE BRIEF 6SM VISIBILITIES THROUGH 14Z AS WELL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL MOST LIKELY FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY AT MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON/
EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT IN THE KAHN VICINITY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  93  73 /  30  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  93  76 /  30  20  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  88  70 /  30  30  40  30
CARTERSVILLE    93  72  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        96  75  95  76 /  20  20  40  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  74 /  30  30  40  30
MACON           96  73  95  73 /  20  20  40  30
ROME            93  71  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  93  70 /  30  20  30  30
VIDALIA         96  75  96  75 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281047
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
647 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AT 08Z...BUT TREND DECREASING RAPIDLY GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/INSTABILITY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST
WITH TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING OVER
RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLE FORCING FROM SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING TONIGHT.
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW MID CLOUDS
REMAINING AROUND THE TAF SITES. EXPECT THE MID CLOUDS TO DEPART
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION ATTM. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCHS 281026
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
626 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-16 IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WEBCAMS AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THE
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH SOUTH OF I-16 TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH NOT ALL AREAS ARE OBSERVING DENSE FOG
ATTM...CEILINGS AROUND 100 FT SUGGEST VISIBILITIES WILL DROP
QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM.

TODAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
ADJACENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS THE SURFACE...DUAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE
NOTED ALONG A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF STREAM
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTS. THE LOW CENTERS WILL REMAIN
ILL-DEFINED TODAY AND LIKELY DISSIPATE AT SOME POINT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT AND MUGGY DAY FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE RATHER WEAK SO ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. TWENTY PERCENT POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SYNOPTIC
REGIME AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST AT KSAV UNTIL ABOUT 13Z WITH RAPID
IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. VFR FOR BOTH KCHS/KSAV FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A MORE UNIFORM EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS
AVERAGING 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKE TIDE
LEVELS VERY NEAR 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING FOR THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.
EVEN IF TIDE LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...SOME VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
ASSUMING LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 281026
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
626 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-16 IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WEBCAMS AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THE
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH SOUTH OF I-16 TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH NOT ALL AREAS ARE OBSERVING DENSE FOG
ATTM...CEILINGS AROUND 100 FT SUGGEST VISIBILITIES WILL DROP
QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM.

TODAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
ADJACENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS THE SURFACE...DUAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE
NOTED ALONG A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF STREAM
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTS. THE LOW CENTERS WILL REMAIN
ILL-DEFINED TODAY AND LIKELY DISSIPATE AT SOME POINT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT AND MUGGY DAY FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE RATHER WEAK SO ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. TWENTY PERCENT POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SYNOPTIC
REGIME AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST AT KSAV UNTIL ABOUT 13Z WITH RAPID
IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. VFR FOR BOTH KCHS/KSAV FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A MORE UNIFORM EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS
AVERAGING 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKE TIDE
LEVELS VERY NEAR 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING FOR THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.
EVEN IF TIDE LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...SOME VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
ASSUMING LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCAE 280814
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
414 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AT 08Z...BUT TREND DECREASING RAPIDLY GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/INSTABILITY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST
WITH TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING OVER
RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLE FORCING FROM SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING TONIGHT.
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SHOWERS
CURRENTLY CROSSING AREA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR CAE/CUB/OGB THROUGH 09Z WITH FOG AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE ARE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF CONVECTION.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 280814
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
414 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AT 08Z...BUT TREND DECREASING RAPIDLY GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/INSTABILITY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST
WITH TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING OVER
RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLE FORCING FROM SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING TONIGHT.
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SHOWERS
CURRENTLY CROSSING AREA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR CAE/CUB/OGB THROUGH 09Z WITH FOG AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE ARE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF CONVECTION.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCHS 280719
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
319 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...CONDITIONS APPEAR SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING
WHERE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AFFECTED MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. SATELLITE DATA SHOW HIGH CLOUDS POISED TO CLEAR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA VERY SOON...WHILE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF NORTH
CAROLINA IS BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
AREA. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM12 1000MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICIT PROGS SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG TO
FORM WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-16
CORRIDOR. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND
THERE ARE ALREADY SIGNALS OF LOW STRATUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
WHILE SOME FOG IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...INCOMING
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS COULD TEMPER THE COVERAGE THERE SOMEWHAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDDED AND TEXT
FORECASTS THROUGH SUNRISE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY VERY WELL BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA OVER THE COMING HOURS.

THE KCLX RADAR IS PINNING LIGHT RETURNS OFF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY MILITARY CHAFF AND NOT
HYDROMETEORS PER DUAL-POL MULTI-LAYER CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
PRODUCTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST NEAR WEAK LOW PRESSURE.

TODAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
ADJACENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS THE SURFACE...DUAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE
NOTED ALONG A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF STREAM
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTS. THE LOW CENTERS WILL REMAIN
ILL-DEFINED TODAY AND LIKELY DISSIPATE AT SOME POINT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT AND MUGGY DAY FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE RATHER WEAK SO ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. TWENTY PERCENT POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SYNOPTIC
REGIME AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOG/STRATUS THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS
APPEAR SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING WHERE DENSE FOG WAS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FAVORS KSAV FOR THE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...ASSUMING A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE KCHS
AREA AS EXPECTED. WILL GO AHEAD AND SHOW PREVAILING LOW-END MVFR
VSBYS 09-1330Z WITH TEMPO IFR FROM 10-12Z...BUT WILL NOT ESTABLISH
CIGS ATTM. AT KCHS...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS LOW-END MVFR. AMENDMENTS
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING AS
TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. VFR WILL PREVAIL ONCE ANY FOG/STRATUS
MIXES OUT BY 13-14Z. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE
00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS
MORNING. APPROACHING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG IN
CHECK...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. A MORE UNIFORM EAST FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS LOOK
TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AVERAGING 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKE TIDE
LEVELS VERY NEAR 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING FOR THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.
EVEN IF TIDE LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...SOME VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
ASSUMING LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 280719
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
319 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...CONDITIONS APPEAR SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING
WHERE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AFFECTED MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. SATELLITE DATA SHOW HIGH CLOUDS POISED TO CLEAR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA VERY SOON...WHILE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF NORTH
CAROLINA IS BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
AREA. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM12 1000MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICIT PROGS SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG TO
FORM WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-16
CORRIDOR. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND
THERE ARE ALREADY SIGNALS OF LOW STRATUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
WHILE SOME FOG IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...INCOMING
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS COULD TEMPER THE COVERAGE THERE SOMEWHAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDDED AND TEXT
FORECASTS THROUGH SUNRISE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY VERY WELL BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA OVER THE COMING HOURS.

THE KCLX RADAR IS PINNING LIGHT RETURNS OFF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY MILITARY CHAFF AND NOT
HYDROMETEORS PER DUAL-POL MULTI-LAYER CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
PRODUCTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST NEAR WEAK LOW PRESSURE.

TODAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
ADJACENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS THE SURFACE...DUAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE
NOTED ALONG A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF STREAM
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTS. THE LOW CENTERS WILL REMAIN
ILL-DEFINED TODAY AND LIKELY DISSIPATE AT SOME POINT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT AND MUGGY DAY FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE RATHER WEAK SO ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. TWENTY PERCENT POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SYNOPTIC
REGIME AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOG/STRATUS THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS
APPEAR SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING WHERE DENSE FOG WAS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FAVORS KSAV FOR THE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...ASSUMING A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE KCHS
AREA AS EXPECTED. WILL GO AHEAD AND SHOW PREVAILING LOW-END MVFR
VSBYS 09-1330Z WITH TEMPO IFR FROM 10-12Z...BUT WILL NOT ESTABLISH
CIGS ATTM. AT KCHS...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS LOW-END MVFR. AMENDMENTS
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING AS
TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. VFR WILL PREVAIL ONCE ANY FOG/STRATUS
MIXES OUT BY 13-14Z. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE
00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS
MORNING. APPROACHING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG IN
CHECK...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. A MORE UNIFORM EAST FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS LOOK
TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AVERAGING 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKE TIDE
LEVELS VERY NEAR 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING FOR THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.
EVEN IF TIDE LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...SOME VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
ASSUMING LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280719
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
319 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...CONDITIONS APPEAR SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING
WHERE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AFFECTED MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. SATELLITE DATA SHOW HIGH CLOUDS POISED TO CLEAR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA VERY SOON...WHILE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF NORTH
CAROLINA IS BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
AREA. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM12 1000MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICIT PROGS SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG TO
FORM WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-16
CORRIDOR. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND
THERE ARE ALREADY SIGNALS OF LOW STRATUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
WHILE SOME FOG IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...INCOMING
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS COULD TEMPER THE COVERAGE THERE SOMEWHAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDDED AND TEXT
FORECASTS THROUGH SUNRISE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY VERY WELL BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA OVER THE COMING HOURS.

THE KCLX RADAR IS PINNING LIGHT RETURNS OFF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY MILITARY CHAFF AND NOT
HYDROMETEORS PER DUAL-POL MULTI-LAYER CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
PRODUCTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST NEAR WEAK LOW PRESSURE.

TODAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
ADJACENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS THE SURFACE...DUAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE
NOTED ALONG A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF STREAM
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTS. THE LOW CENTERS WILL REMAIN
ILL-DEFINED TODAY AND LIKELY DISSIPATE AT SOME POINT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT AND MUGGY DAY FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE RATHER WEAK SO ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. TWENTY PERCENT POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SYNOPTIC
REGIME AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOG/STRATUS THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS
APPEAR SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING WHERE DENSE FOG WAS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FAVORS KSAV FOR THE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...ASSUMING A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE KCHS
AREA AS EXPECTED. WILL GO AHEAD AND SHOW PREVAILING LOW-END MVFR
VSBYS 09-1330Z WITH TEMPO IFR FROM 10-12Z...BUT WILL NOT ESTABLISH
CIGS ATTM. AT KCHS...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS LOW-END MVFR. AMENDMENTS
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING AS
TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. VFR WILL PREVAIL ONCE ANY FOG/STRATUS
MIXES OUT BY 13-14Z. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE
00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS
MORNING. APPROACHING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG IN
CHECK...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. A MORE UNIFORM EAST FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS LOOK
TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AVERAGING 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKE TIDE
LEVELS VERY NEAR 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING FOR THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.
EVEN IF TIDE LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...SOME VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
ASSUMING LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 280719
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
319 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...CONDITIONS APPEAR SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING
WHERE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AFFECTED MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. SATELLITE DATA SHOW HIGH CLOUDS POISED TO CLEAR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA VERY SOON...WHILE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF NORTH
CAROLINA IS BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
AREA. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM12 1000MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICIT PROGS SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG TO
FORM WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-16
CORRIDOR. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND
THERE ARE ALREADY SIGNALS OF LOW STRATUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
WHILE SOME FOG IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...INCOMING
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS COULD TEMPER THE COVERAGE THERE SOMEWHAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDDED AND TEXT
FORECASTS THROUGH SUNRISE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY VERY WELL BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA OVER THE COMING HOURS.

THE KCLX RADAR IS PINNING LIGHT RETURNS OFF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY MILITARY CHAFF AND NOT
HYDROMETEORS PER DUAL-POL MULTI-LAYER CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
PRODUCTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST NEAR WEAK LOW PRESSURE.

TODAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
ADJACENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS THE SURFACE...DUAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE
NOTED ALONG A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF STREAM
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTS. THE LOW CENTERS WILL REMAIN
ILL-DEFINED TODAY AND LIKELY DISSIPATE AT SOME POINT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT AND MUGGY DAY FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE RATHER WEAK SO ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. TWENTY PERCENT POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SYNOPTIC
REGIME AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOG/STRATUS THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS
APPEAR SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING WHERE DENSE FOG WAS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FAVORS KSAV FOR THE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...ASSUMING A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE KCHS
AREA AS EXPECTED. WILL GO AHEAD AND SHOW PREVAILING LOW-END MVFR
VSBYS 09-1330Z WITH TEMPO IFR FROM 10-12Z...BUT WILL NOT ESTABLISH
CIGS ATTM. AT KCHS...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS LOW-END MVFR. AMENDMENTS
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING AS
TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. VFR WILL PREVAIL ONCE ANY FOG/STRATUS
MIXES OUT BY 13-14Z. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE
00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS
MORNING. APPROACHING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG IN
CHECK...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. A MORE UNIFORM EAST FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS LOOK
TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AVERAGING 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKE TIDE
LEVELS VERY NEAR 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING FOR THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.
EVEN IF TIDE LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...SOME VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
ASSUMING LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR




000
FXUS62 KFFC 280710
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
310 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INFLUENCE IS NOT
QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WITH SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WE SHOULD SEE...
MAINLY DIURNAL...CONVECTION INCREASING SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS THE NORTH AND
ISOLATED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY AND SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL TO MODERATE AT BEST
AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY...BUT MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER
FORECAST CYCLES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

20


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN SAGGING
INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THEN POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO SOUTH GA ON SUNDAY... PROBABLY IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THAT
CAUSES A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. EITHER WAY...
IT APPEARS A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS ON TAP FOR
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE
REGION... SUPPORTING SCATTERED... TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS AT TIMES...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE GREATER
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA WHERE THE FRONT REMAINS A FOCUS. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST AND ALONG THE GA AND SC
COASTS ON MONDAY... SUGGESTING THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT EAST. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES
SUGGEST MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE
TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREATS OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED.

EXPECT WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL GA EACH
DAY. HOWEVER... BEHIND THE FRONT... A NORTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF NORTH GA BY FRIDAY THAT
COULD PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND.  39

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...HOWEVER
ONLY TAF SITES I EXPECT ANY BRIEF IMPACTS ARE KAHN/KMCN...AND
POSSIBLY KFTY AND KPDK. WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY FAVOR
NORTHEASTERLY BEFORE BECOMING MORE PREDOMINATELY NORTHWESTERLY BY
12Z. AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH
NOT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT IN THE KAHN VICINITY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  93  73 /  30  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  93  76 /  30  20  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  88  70 /  30  30  40  30
CARTERSVILLE    93  72  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        96  75  95  76 /  20  20  40  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  74 /  30  30  40  30
MACON           96  73  95  73 /  20  20  40  30
ROME            93  71  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  93  70 /  30  20  30  30
VIDALIA         96  75  96  75 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20



000
FXUS62 KFFC 280710
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
310 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INFLUENCE IS NOT
QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WITH SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WE SHOULD SEE...
MAINLY DIURNAL...CONVECTION INCREASING SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS THE NORTH AND
ISOLATED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY AND SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL TO MODERATE AT BEST
AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY...BUT MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER
FORECAST CYCLES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

20


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN SAGGING
INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THEN POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO SOUTH GA ON SUNDAY... PROBABLY IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THAT
CAUSES A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. EITHER WAY...
IT APPEARS A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS ON TAP FOR
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE
REGION... SUPPORTING SCATTERED... TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS AT TIMES...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE GREATER
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA WHERE THE FRONT REMAINS A FOCUS. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST AND ALONG THE GA AND SC
COASTS ON MONDAY... SUGGESTING THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
SHIFT EAST. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES
SUGGEST MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE
TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREATS OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED.

EXPECT WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL GA EACH
DAY. HOWEVER... BEHIND THE FRONT... A NORTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF NORTH GA BY FRIDAY THAT
COULD PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND.  39

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...HOWEVER
ONLY TAF SITES I EXPECT ANY BRIEF IMPACTS ARE KAHN/KMCN...AND
POSSIBLY KFTY AND KPDK. WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY FAVOR
NORTHEASTERLY BEFORE BECOMING MORE PREDOMINATELY NORTHWESTERLY BY
12Z. AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH
NOT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT IN THE KAHN VICINITY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  93  73 /  30  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  93  76 /  30  20  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  88  70 /  30  30  40  30
CARTERSVILLE    93  72  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        96  75  95  76 /  20  20  40  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  74 /  30  30  40  30
MACON           96  73  95  73 /  20  20  40  30
ROME            93  71  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  93  70 /  30  20  30  30
VIDALIA         96  75  96  75 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KCAE 280626
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATE EVENING REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEAR THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA
AND EASTWARD AS WELL AS DIMINISHING SHOWERS IN PARTS OF THE
WESTERN SC MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT. THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
TIED TO WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT 925MB AND 850MB WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND COULD DRIFT INTO
OUR NORTHERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES SO WILL INCREASE POPS IN THAT AREA
FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH 06Z-07Z AND DIMINISH POPS AFTER THAT TIME.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE AS STORM MOTION IS VERY
SLOW AND HAVE NOTICED SOME BACK BUILDING OF THE STORMS IN NC.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATUS CLOUDS THAT MAY FORM AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND A WEAK
LOW LEVEL JET. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE E CONUS. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED
FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.

FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SHOWERS
CURRENTLY CROSSING AREA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR CAE/CUB/OGB THROUGH 09Z WITH FOG AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE ARE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF CONVECTION.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 280626
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATE EVENING REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEAR THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA
AND EASTWARD AS WELL AS DIMINISHING SHOWERS IN PARTS OF THE
WESTERN SC MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT. THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
TIED TO WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT 925MB AND 850MB WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND COULD DRIFT INTO
OUR NORTHERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES SO WILL INCREASE POPS IN THAT AREA
FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH 06Z-07Z AND DIMINISH POPS AFTER THAT TIME.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE AS STORM MOTION IS VERY
SLOW AND HAVE NOTICED SOME BACK BUILDING OF THE STORMS IN NC.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATUS CLOUDS THAT MAY FORM AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND A WEAK
LOW LEVEL JET. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE E CONUS. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED
FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.

FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SHOWERS
CURRENTLY CROSSING AREA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR CAE/CUB/OGB THROUGH 09Z WITH FOG AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE ARE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF CONVECTION.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 280626
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATE EVENING REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEAR THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA
AND EASTWARD AS WELL AS DIMINISHING SHOWERS IN PARTS OF THE
WESTERN SC MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT. THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
TIED TO WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT 925MB AND 850MB WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND COULD DRIFT INTO
OUR NORTHERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES SO WILL INCREASE POPS IN THAT AREA
FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH 06Z-07Z AND DIMINISH POPS AFTER THAT TIME.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE AS STORM MOTION IS VERY
SLOW AND HAVE NOTICED SOME BACK BUILDING OF THE STORMS IN NC.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATUS CLOUDS THAT MAY FORM AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND A WEAK
LOW LEVEL JET. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE E CONUS. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED
FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.

FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SHOWERS
CURRENTLY CROSSING AREA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR CAE/CUB/OGB THROUGH 09Z WITH FOG AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE ARE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF CONVECTION.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 280626
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATE EVENING REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEAR THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA
AND EASTWARD AS WELL AS DIMINISHING SHOWERS IN PARTS OF THE
WESTERN SC MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT. THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
TIED TO WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT 925MB AND 850MB WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND COULD DRIFT INTO
OUR NORTHERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES SO WILL INCREASE POPS IN THAT AREA
FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH 06Z-07Z AND DIMINISH POPS AFTER THAT TIME.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE AS STORM MOTION IS VERY
SLOW AND HAVE NOTICED SOME BACK BUILDING OF THE STORMS IN NC.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATUS CLOUDS THAT MAY FORM AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND A WEAK
LOW LEVEL JET. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE E CONUS. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED
FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.

FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SHOWERS
CURRENTLY CROSSING AREA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR CAE/CUB/OGB THROUGH 09Z WITH FOG AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE ARE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF CONVECTION.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KFFC 280602 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015


.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...INCLUDING MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
COOLING TRENDS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...AND TO DIMINISH POPS
A TAD FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND. ASIDE FROM THESE
CHANGES...NO ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON HAS SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF
GEORGIA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY NORTH OF
I-20 IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LVL
MOISTURE. LIGHTNING IS VERY LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF FORCING AND
WEAK LOW-MID LVL WIND SHEAR. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPR 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA TO THE MID TO UPR
90S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GA. SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF RAIN AND PERHAPS A WIND GUST TO 20-25MPH...
OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM THROUGH SUNSET THIS
EVENING.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CWA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A
TROUGH TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EASTWARD IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE CWA. ONCE AGAIN TODAY THE CONVECTION IS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WITH BETTER
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SLIGHTLY MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY. HI-RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS BOTH NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AND
THUS HAVE SPREAD THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH
MAINLY CHANCE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.

WITH BETTER MOISTURE TOMORROW...HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW
100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA HOWEVER THEY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA /105/.

11

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT LONGWAVE PATTERN ADJUSTS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS UPR LVL HIGH BUILDS BACK WEST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. A LOW LVL TROUGH AXIS/BOUNDARY WILL EXIST
SOMEWHERE ACROSS GEORGIA DURING THIS TIME AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE MUCH AS THE FEATURE GETS CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO UPR LVL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT THIS TIME WITH RESPECT
TO SEVERE THREATS/IMPACTS. TYPICAL BURSTS OF HEAVY RAIN...BRIEF
WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARY THREATS.

WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EACH DAY BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES AS UPR LVL HEIGHTS FALL.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...HOWEVER
ONLY TAF SITES I EXPECT ANY BRIEF IMPACTS ARE KAHN/KMCN...AND
POSSIBLY KFTY AND KPDK. WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY FAVOR
NORTHEASTERLY BEFORE BECOMING MORE PREDOMINATELY NORTHWESTERLY BY
12Z. AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH
NOT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT IN THE KAHN VICINITY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  94  73  94 /  20  30  30  30
ATLANTA         76  93  75  92 /  10  20  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     67  88  66  87 /  20  30  30  40
CARTERSVILLE    70  93  72  92 /  20  30  20  30
COLUMBUS        76  97  76  97 /   5  20  20  40
GAINESVILLE     74  91  74  90 /  20  30  30  30
MACON           70  97  74  97 /   5  20  20  30
ROME            71  94  72  94 /  20  30  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  71  94  73  94 /  10  20  20  30
VIDALIA         73  96  75  95 /   5  20  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31



000
FXUS62 KFFC 280602 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015


.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...INCLUDING MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
COOLING TRENDS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...AND TO DIMINISH POPS
A TAD FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND. ASIDE FROM THESE
CHANGES...NO ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON HAS SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF
GEORGIA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY NORTH OF
I-20 IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LVL
MOISTURE. LIGHTNING IS VERY LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF FORCING AND
WEAK LOW-MID LVL WIND SHEAR. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPR 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA TO THE MID TO UPR
90S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GA. SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF RAIN AND PERHAPS A WIND GUST TO 20-25MPH...
OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM THROUGH SUNSET THIS
EVENING.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CWA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A
TROUGH TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EASTWARD IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE CWA. ONCE AGAIN TODAY THE CONVECTION IS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WITH BETTER
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SLIGHTLY MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY. HI-RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS BOTH NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AND
THUS HAVE SPREAD THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH
MAINLY CHANCE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.

WITH BETTER MOISTURE TOMORROW...HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW
100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA HOWEVER THEY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA /105/.

11

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT LONGWAVE PATTERN ADJUSTS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS UPR LVL HIGH BUILDS BACK WEST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. A LOW LVL TROUGH AXIS/BOUNDARY WILL EXIST
SOMEWHERE ACROSS GEORGIA DURING THIS TIME AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE MUCH AS THE FEATURE GETS CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO UPR LVL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT THIS TIME WITH RESPECT
TO SEVERE THREATS/IMPACTS. TYPICAL BURSTS OF HEAVY RAIN...BRIEF
WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARY THREATS.

WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EACH DAY BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES AS UPR LVL HEIGHTS FALL.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...HOWEVER
ONLY TAF SITES I EXPECT ANY BRIEF IMPACTS ARE KAHN/KMCN...AND
POSSIBLY KFTY AND KPDK. WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY FAVOR
NORTHEASTERLY BEFORE BECOMING MORE PREDOMINATELY NORTHWESTERLY BY
12Z. AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH
NOT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT IN THE KAHN VICINITY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  94  73  94 /  20  30  30  30
ATLANTA         76  93  75  92 /  10  20  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     67  88  66  87 /  20  30  30  40
CARTERSVILLE    70  93  72  92 /  20  30  20  30
COLUMBUS        76  97  76  97 /   5  20  20  40
GAINESVILLE     74  91  74  90 /  20  30  30  30
MACON           70  97  74  97 /   5  20  20  30
ROME            71  94  72  94 /  20  30  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  71  94  73  94 /  10  20  20  30
VIDALIA         73  96  75  95 /   5  20  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280456
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1256 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CAREFULLY MONITORING TRENDS FOR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. CIRRUS IS
STEADILY THINNING WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.
CONDITIONS APPEAR SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. LATEST NAM12 1000 HPA
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS FAVOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG...MOST LIKELY AS SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
OVERALL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND
ENCOUNTERS AMPLE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES OF PRECIP
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SET
UP ON THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR
THE COAST AND MID 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOG/STRATUS THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS
APPEAR SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING WHERE DENSE FOG WAS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FAVORS KSAV FOR THE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...ASSUMING A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE KCHS
AREA AS EXPECTED. WILL GO AHEAD AND SHOW PREVAILING LOW-END MVFR
VSBYS 09-1330Z WITH TEMPO IFR FROM 10-12Z...BUT WILL NOT ESTABLISH
CIGS ATTM. AT KCHS...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS LOW-END MVFR. AMENDMENTS
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING AS
TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. VFR WILL PREVAIL ONCE ANY FOG/STRATUS
MIXES OUT BY 13-14Z.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF DIRECTION FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KNOTS FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET IN
MANY AREAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT UP INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN
GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF EVENING HIGH TIDES
STARTING TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS
SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2
PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE
GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC
COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280456
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1256 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CAREFULLY MONITORING TRENDS FOR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. CIRRUS IS
STEADILY THINNING WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.
CONDITIONS APPEAR SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. LATEST NAM12 1000 HPA
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS FAVOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG...MOST LIKELY AS SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
OVERALL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND
ENCOUNTERS AMPLE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES OF PRECIP
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SET
UP ON THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR
THE COAST AND MID 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOG/STRATUS THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS
APPEAR SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING WHERE DENSE FOG WAS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FAVORS KSAV FOR THE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...ASSUMING A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE KCHS
AREA AS EXPECTED. WILL GO AHEAD AND SHOW PREVAILING LOW-END MVFR
VSBYS 09-1330Z WITH TEMPO IFR FROM 10-12Z...BUT WILL NOT ESTABLISH
CIGS ATTM. AT KCHS...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS LOW-END MVFR. AMENDMENTS
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING AS
TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. VFR WILL PREVAIL ONCE ANY FOG/STRATUS
MIXES OUT BY 13-14Z.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF DIRECTION FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KNOTS FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET IN
MANY AREAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT UP INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN
GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF EVENING HIGH TIDES
STARTING TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS
SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2
PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE
GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC
COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 280456
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1256 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CAREFULLY MONITORING TRENDS FOR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. CIRRUS IS
STEADILY THINNING WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.
CONDITIONS APPEAR SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. LATEST NAM12 1000 HPA
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS FAVOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG...MOST LIKELY AS SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
OVERALL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND
ENCOUNTERS AMPLE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES OF PRECIP
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SET
UP ON THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR
THE COAST AND MID 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOG/STRATUS THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS
APPEAR SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING WHERE DENSE FOG WAS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FAVORS KSAV FOR THE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...ASSUMING A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE KCHS
AREA AS EXPECTED. WILL GO AHEAD AND SHOW PREVAILING LOW-END MVFR
VSBYS 09-1330Z WITH TEMPO IFR FROM 10-12Z...BUT WILL NOT ESTABLISH
CIGS ATTM. AT KCHS...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS LOW-END MVFR. AMENDMENTS
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING AS
TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. VFR WILL PREVAIL ONCE ANY FOG/STRATUS
MIXES OUT BY 13-14Z.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF DIRECTION FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KNOTS FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET IN
MANY AREAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT UP INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN
GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF EVENING HIGH TIDES
STARTING TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS
SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2
PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE
GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC
COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 280456
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1256 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CAREFULLY MONITORING TRENDS FOR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. CIRRUS IS
STEADILY THINNING WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.
CONDITIONS APPEAR SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. LATEST NAM12 1000 HPA
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS FAVOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG...MOST LIKELY AS SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
OVERALL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND
ENCOUNTERS AMPLE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES OF PRECIP
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SET
UP ON THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR
THE COAST AND MID 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOG/STRATUS THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS
APPEAR SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING WHERE DENSE FOG WAS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FAVORS KSAV FOR THE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...ASSUMING A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE KCHS
AREA AS EXPECTED. WILL GO AHEAD AND SHOW PREVAILING LOW-END MVFR
VSBYS 09-1330Z WITH TEMPO IFR FROM 10-12Z...BUT WILL NOT ESTABLISH
CIGS ATTM. AT KCHS...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS LOW-END MVFR. AMENDMENTS
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING AS
TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. VFR WILL PREVAIL ONCE ANY FOG/STRATUS
MIXES OUT BY 13-14Z.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF DIRECTION FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KNOTS FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET IN
MANY AREAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT UP INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN
GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF EVENING HIGH TIDES
STARTING TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS
SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2
PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE
GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC
COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCAE 280231 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1031 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEAR THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA
AND EASTWARD AS WELL AS DIMINISHING SHOWERS IN PARTS OF THE
WESTERN SC MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT. THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
TIED TO WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT 925MB AND 850MB WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND COULD DRIFT INTO
OUR NORTHERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES SO WILL INCREASE POPS IN THAT AREA
FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH 06Z-07Z AND DIMINISH POPS AFTER THAT TIME.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE AS STORM MOTION IS VERY
SLOW AND HAVE NOTICED SOME BACK BUILDING OF THE STORMS IN NC.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATUS CLOUDS THAT MAY FORM AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND A WEAK
LOW LEVEL JET. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE E CONUS. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED
FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.

FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR AT AGS/OGB FOR TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WHILE AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL KEEP THE GENERAL WIND FLOW OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT. NAM AND GFS BUFKIT
TIME SECTIONS SHOWING A WEAK OVERNIGHT LOW-LEVEL JET.  MODELS
INDICATING SOME POOLING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...WHICH MAY
SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE AT
AGS/OGB. THE MODELS DO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SOME OF THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO LESS DRY AIR ALOFT TO WORK WITH...WHICH MAY LIMIT FOG
AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR STRATUS. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...BC



000
FXUS62 KCAE 280231 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1031 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEAR THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA
AND EASTWARD AS WELL AS DIMINISHING SHOWERS IN PARTS OF THE
WESTERN SC MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT. THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
TIED TO WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT 925MB AND 850MB WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND COULD DRIFT INTO
OUR NORTHERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES SO WILL INCREASE POPS IN THAT AREA
FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH 06Z-07Z AND DIMINISH POPS AFTER THAT TIME.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE AS STORM MOTION IS VERY
SLOW AND HAVE NOTICED SOME BACK BUILDING OF THE STORMS IN NC.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATUS CLOUDS THAT MAY FORM AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND A WEAK
LOW LEVEL JET. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE E CONUS. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED
FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.

FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR AT AGS/OGB FOR TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WHILE AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL KEEP THE GENERAL WIND FLOW OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT. NAM AND GFS BUFKIT
TIME SECTIONS SHOWING A WEAK OVERNIGHT LOW-LEVEL JET.  MODELS
INDICATING SOME POOLING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...WHICH MAY
SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE AT
AGS/OGB. THE MODELS DO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SOME OF THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO LESS DRY AIR ALOFT TO WORK WITH...WHICH MAY LIMIT FOG
AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR STRATUS. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...BC



000
FXUS62 KCAE 280231 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1031 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEAR THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA
AND EASTWARD AS WELL AS DIMINISHING SHOWERS IN PARTS OF THE
WESTERN SC MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT. THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
TIED TO WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT 925MB AND 850MB WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND COULD DRIFT INTO
OUR NORTHERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES SO WILL INCREASE POPS IN THAT AREA
FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH 06Z-07Z AND DIMINISH POPS AFTER THAT TIME.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE AS STORM MOTION IS VERY
SLOW AND HAVE NOTICED SOME BACK BUILDING OF THE STORMS IN NC.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATUS CLOUDS THAT MAY FORM AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND A WEAK
LOW LEVEL JET. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE E CONUS. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED
FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.

FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR AT AGS/OGB FOR TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WHILE AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL KEEP THE GENERAL WIND FLOW OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT. NAM AND GFS BUFKIT
TIME SECTIONS SHOWING A WEAK OVERNIGHT LOW-LEVEL JET.  MODELS
INDICATING SOME POOLING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...WHICH MAY
SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE AT
AGS/OGB. THE MODELS DO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SOME OF THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO LESS DRY AIR ALOFT TO WORK WITH...WHICH MAY LIMIT FOG
AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR STRATUS. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...BC



000
FXUS62 KCAE 280231 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1031 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEAR THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA
AND EASTWARD AS WELL AS DIMINISHING SHOWERS IN PARTS OF THE
WESTERN SC MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT. THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
TIED TO WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT 925MB AND 850MB WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND COULD DRIFT INTO
OUR NORTHERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES SO WILL INCREASE POPS IN THAT AREA
FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH 06Z-07Z AND DIMINISH POPS AFTER THAT TIME.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE AS STORM MOTION IS VERY
SLOW AND HAVE NOTICED SOME BACK BUILDING OF THE STORMS IN NC.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATUS CLOUDS THAT MAY FORM AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND A WEAK
LOW LEVEL JET. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE E CONUS. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED
FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.

FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR AT AGS/OGB FOR TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WHILE AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL KEEP THE GENERAL WIND FLOW OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT. NAM AND GFS BUFKIT
TIME SECTIONS SHOWING A WEAK OVERNIGHT LOW-LEVEL JET.  MODELS
INDICATING SOME POOLING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...WHICH MAY
SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE AT
AGS/OGB. THE MODELS DO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SOME OF THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO LESS DRY AIR ALOFT TO WORK WITH...WHICH MAY LIMIT FOG
AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR STRATUS. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...BC



000
FXUS62 KCHS 280218
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1018 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES OCCURRED AROUND SUNSET...HOWEVER WE
ARE NOW SEEING HIGH CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH ALONG WITH
SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH SOUTHERN SC AND OFF THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OVER LAND SHOULD DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WE DO ANTICIPATE
A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT IS THE FOG POTENTIAL. INLAND WINDS
HAVE DROPPED OFF THOUGH CLOSER TO THE COAST WE ARE STILL SEEING
5-7 KT OF FLOW. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER COASTAL AREAS BY
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SEA BREEZE SUBSIDES AND GEOSTROPHIC
FLOW DROPS TO 5 KT OR LESS. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
ABUNDANT...THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY END UP PREVENTING A REPEAT
OF LAST NIGHT`S DENSE FOG. SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE SLOWER TO COOL
DUE TO WEAKENING RADIATIONAL COOLING. AT 02Z THE TEMPS WERE 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HRS PRIOR AND THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS
DEWPOINTS SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER AS WELL. A MORE GRADUAL COOLING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT
THE CHANCES FOR DENSE FOG LOOK LOWER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
OVERALL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND
ENCOUNTERS AMPLE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES OF PRECIP
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SET
UP ON THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR
THE COAST AND MID 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT LATER TONIGHT. THE WEAK
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE FAVOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING
INLAND AND PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS
VERY CONSERVATIVE REGARDING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...THUS FAR NO
WORSE THAN MVFR LATE TONIGHT. THE SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE IS ALSO
SHOWING PRACTICALLY NO REDUCTIONS IN CATEGORY. QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS IS HEADING FOR THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...POTENTIALLY
THROTTLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING ENOUGH TO PREVENT A
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT. AT THIS POINT...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT SOME FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE UNTIL SOME TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. THUS WE
MAINTAINED VERY SIMILAR FORECAST FROM THE 18Z TAFS...MVFR VSBY AT
BOTH TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID TUESDAY MORNING.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF DIRECTION FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KNOTS FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET IN
MANY AREAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT UP INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN
GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF EVENING HIGH TIDES
STARTING TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS
SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2
PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE
GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC
COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DPB/MTE
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/JRL
MARINE...DPB/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 280218
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1018 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES OCCURRED AROUND SUNSET...HOWEVER WE
ARE NOW SEEING HIGH CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH ALONG WITH
SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH SOUTHERN SC AND OFF THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OVER LAND SHOULD DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WE DO ANTICIPATE
A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT IS THE FOG POTENTIAL. INLAND WINDS
HAVE DROPPED OFF THOUGH CLOSER TO THE COAST WE ARE STILL SEEING
5-7 KT OF FLOW. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER COASTAL AREAS BY
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SEA BREEZE SUBSIDES AND GEOSTROPHIC
FLOW DROPS TO 5 KT OR LESS. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
ABUNDANT...THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY END UP PREVENTING A REPEAT
OF LAST NIGHT`S DENSE FOG. SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE SLOWER TO COOL
DUE TO WEAKENING RADIATIONAL COOLING. AT 02Z THE TEMPS WERE 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HRS PRIOR AND THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS
DEWPOINTS SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER AS WELL. A MORE GRADUAL COOLING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT
THE CHANCES FOR DENSE FOG LOOK LOWER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
OVERALL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND
ENCOUNTERS AMPLE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES OF PRECIP
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SET
UP ON THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR
THE COAST AND MID 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT LATER TONIGHT. THE WEAK
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE FAVOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING
INLAND AND PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS
VERY CONSERVATIVE REGARDING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...THUS FAR NO
WORSE THAN MVFR LATE TONIGHT. THE SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE IS ALSO
SHOWING PRACTICALLY NO REDUCTIONS IN CATEGORY. QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS IS HEADING FOR THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...POTENTIALLY
THROTTLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING ENOUGH TO PREVENT A
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT. AT THIS POINT...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT SOME FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE UNTIL SOME TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. THUS WE
MAINTAINED VERY SIMILAR FORECAST FROM THE 18Z TAFS...MVFR VSBY AT
BOTH TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID TUESDAY MORNING.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF DIRECTION FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KNOTS FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET IN
MANY AREAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT UP INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN
GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF EVENING HIGH TIDES
STARTING TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS
SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2
PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE
GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC
COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DPB/MTE
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/JRL
MARINE...DPB/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KFFC 280057
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
857 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015


.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...INCLUDING MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
COOLING TRENDS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...AND TO DIMINISH POPS
A TAD FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND. ASIDE FROM THESE
CHANGES...NO ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON HAS SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF
GEORGIA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY NORTH OF
I-20 IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LVL
MOISTURE. LIGHTNING IS VERY LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF FORCING AND
WEAK LOW-MID LVL WIND SHEAR. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPR 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA TO THE MID TO UPR
90S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GA. SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF RAIN AND PERHAPS A WIND GUST TO 20-25MPH...
OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM THROUGH SUNSET THIS
EVENING.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CWA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A
TROUGH TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EASTWARD IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE CWA. ONCE AGAIN TODAY THE CONVECTION IS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WITH BETTER
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SLIGHTLY MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY. HI-RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS BOTH NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AND
THUS HAVE SPREAD THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH
MAINLY CHANCE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.

WITH BETTER MOISTURE TOMORROW...HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW
100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA HOWEVER THEY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA /105/.

11

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT LONGWAVE PATTERN ADJUSTS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS UPR LVL HIGH BUILDS BACK WEST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. A LOW LVL TROUGH AXIS/BOUNDARY WILL EXIST
SOMEWHERE ACROSS GEORGIA DURING THIS TIME AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE MUCH AS THE FEATURE GETS CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO UPR LVL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT THIS TIME WITH RESPECT
TO SEVERE THREATS/IMPACTS. TYPICAL BURSTS OF HEAVY RAIN...BRIEF
WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARY THREATS.

WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EACH DAY BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES AS UPR LVL HEIGHTS FALL.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT/NEARLY CALM
WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BE VARYING BETWEEN NNE AND NNW.
BY TUESDAY MORNING NW WINDS AT 3-5KT WILL INCREASE TO 5-8KT BY THE
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON CONVECTION ISOLATED ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE AT
MAJORITY OF TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 -SHRA
FOR KAHN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  94  73  94 /  20  30  30  30
ATLANTA         76  93  75  92 /  10  20  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     67  88  66  87 /  20  30  30  40
CARTERSVILLE    70  93  72  92 /  20  30  20  30
COLUMBUS        76  97  76  97 /   5  20  20  40
GAINESVILLE     74  91  74  90 /  20  30  30  30
MACON           70  97  74  97 /   5  20  20  30
ROME            71  94  72  94 /  20  30  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  71  94  73  94 /  10  20  20  30
VIDALIA         73  96  75  95 /   5  20  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 280057
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
857 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015


.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...INCLUDING MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
COOLING TRENDS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...AND TO DIMINISH POPS
A TAD FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND. ASIDE FROM THESE
CHANGES...NO ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON HAS SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF
GEORGIA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY NORTH OF
I-20 IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LVL
MOISTURE. LIGHTNING IS VERY LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF FORCING AND
WEAK LOW-MID LVL WIND SHEAR. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPR 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA TO THE MID TO UPR
90S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GA. SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF RAIN AND PERHAPS A WIND GUST TO 20-25MPH...
OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM THROUGH SUNSET THIS
EVENING.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CWA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A
TROUGH TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EASTWARD IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE CWA. ONCE AGAIN TODAY THE CONVECTION IS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WITH BETTER
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SLIGHTLY MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY. HI-RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS BOTH NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AND
THUS HAVE SPREAD THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH
MAINLY CHANCE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.

WITH BETTER MOISTURE TOMORROW...HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW
100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA HOWEVER THEY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA /105/.

11

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT LONGWAVE PATTERN ADJUSTS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS UPR LVL HIGH BUILDS BACK WEST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. A LOW LVL TROUGH AXIS/BOUNDARY WILL EXIST
SOMEWHERE ACROSS GEORGIA DURING THIS TIME AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE MUCH AS THE FEATURE GETS CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO UPR LVL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT THIS TIME WITH RESPECT
TO SEVERE THREATS/IMPACTS. TYPICAL BURSTS OF HEAVY RAIN...BRIEF
WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARY THREATS.

WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EACH DAY BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES AS UPR LVL HEIGHTS FALL.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT/NEARLY CALM
WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BE VARYING BETWEEN NNE AND NNW.
BY TUESDAY MORNING NW WINDS AT 3-5KT WILL INCREASE TO 5-8KT BY THE
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON CONVECTION ISOLATED ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE AT
MAJORITY OF TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 -SHRA
FOR KAHN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  94  73  94 /  20  30  30  30
ATLANTA         76  93  75  92 /  10  20  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     67  88  66  87 /  20  30  30  40
CARTERSVILLE    70  93  72  92 /  20  30  20  30
COLUMBUS        76  97  76  97 /   5  20  20  40
GAINESVILLE     74  91  74  90 /  20  30  30  30
MACON           70  97  74  97 /   5  20  20  30
ROME            71  94  72  94 /  20  30  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  71  94  73  94 /  10  20  20  30
VIDALIA         73  96  75  95 /   5  20  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31



000
FXUS62 KCHS 272349
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
749 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT BY MORNING IN MOST
AREAS. FOR NOW INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT BASED
ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED LIGHTER
WINDS TONIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOP. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ADD SOME DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT FOR SOME AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
MAINLY BE FROM THE LOWER 70S FAR INLAND TO THE MID TO EVEN UPPER
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
OVERALL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND
ENCOUNTERS AMPLE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES OF PRECIP
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SET
UP ON THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR
THE COAST AND MID 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT LATER TONIGHT. THE WEAK
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE FAVOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING
INLAND AND PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS
VERY CONSERVATIVE REGARDING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...THUS FAR NO
WORSE THAN MVFR LATE TONIGHT. THE SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE IS ALSO
SHOWING PRACTICALLY NO REDUCTIONS IN CATEGORY. QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS IS HEADING FOR THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...POTENTIALLY
THROTTLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING ENOUGH TO PREVENT A
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT. AT THIS POINT...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT SOME FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE UNTIL SOME TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. THUS WE
MAINTAINED VERY SIMILAR FORECAST FROM THE 18Z TAFS...MVFR VSBY AT
BOTH TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID TUESDAY MORNING.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF DIRECTION FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KNOTS FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET IN
MANY AREAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT UP INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN
GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE LEVELS THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA

PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF EVENING HIGH TIDES
STARTING TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS
SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2
PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE
GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC
COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DPB/MTE
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/JRL
MARINE...DPB/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 272349
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
749 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT BY MORNING IN MOST
AREAS. FOR NOW INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT BASED
ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED LIGHTER
WINDS TONIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOP. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ADD SOME DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT FOR SOME AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
MAINLY BE FROM THE LOWER 70S FAR INLAND TO THE MID TO EVEN UPPER
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
OVERALL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND
ENCOUNTERS AMPLE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES OF PRECIP
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SET
UP ON THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR
THE COAST AND MID 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT LATER TONIGHT. THE WEAK
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE FAVOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING
INLAND AND PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS
VERY CONSERVATIVE REGARDING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...THUS FAR NO
WORSE THAN MVFR LATE TONIGHT. THE SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE IS ALSO
SHOWING PRACTICALLY NO REDUCTIONS IN CATEGORY. QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS IS HEADING FOR THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...POTENTIALLY
THROTTLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING ENOUGH TO PREVENT A
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT. AT THIS POINT...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT SOME FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE UNTIL SOME TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. THUS WE
MAINTAINED VERY SIMILAR FORECAST FROM THE 18Z TAFS...MVFR VSBY AT
BOTH TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID TUESDAY MORNING.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF DIRECTION FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KNOTS FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET IN
MANY AREAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT UP INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN
GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE LEVELS THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA

PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF EVENING HIGH TIDES
STARTING TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS
SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2
PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE
GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC
COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DPB/MTE
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/JRL
MARINE...DPB/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 272349
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
749 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT BY MORNING IN MOST
AREAS. FOR NOW INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT BASED
ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED LIGHTER
WINDS TONIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOP. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ADD SOME DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT FOR SOME AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
MAINLY BE FROM THE LOWER 70S FAR INLAND TO THE MID TO EVEN UPPER
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
OVERALL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND
ENCOUNTERS AMPLE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES OF PRECIP
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SET
UP ON THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR
THE COAST AND MID 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT LATER TONIGHT. THE WEAK
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE FAVOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING
INLAND AND PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS
VERY CONSERVATIVE REGARDING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...THUS FAR NO
WORSE THAN MVFR LATE TONIGHT. THE SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE IS ALSO
SHOWING PRACTICALLY NO REDUCTIONS IN CATEGORY. QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS IS HEADING FOR THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...POTENTIALLY
THROTTLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING ENOUGH TO PREVENT A
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT. AT THIS POINT...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT SOME FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE UNTIL SOME TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. THUS WE
MAINTAINED VERY SIMILAR FORECAST FROM THE 18Z TAFS...MVFR VSBY AT
BOTH TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID TUESDAY MORNING.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF DIRECTION FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KNOTS FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET IN
MANY AREAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT UP INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN
GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE LEVELS THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA

PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF EVENING HIGH TIDES
STARTING TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS
SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2
PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE
GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC
COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DPB/MTE
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/JRL
MARINE...DPB/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 272349
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
749 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT BY MORNING IN MOST
AREAS. FOR NOW INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT BASED
ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED LIGHTER
WINDS TONIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOP. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ADD SOME DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT FOR SOME AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
MAINLY BE FROM THE LOWER 70S FAR INLAND TO THE MID TO EVEN UPPER
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
OVERALL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND
ENCOUNTERS AMPLE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES OF PRECIP
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SET
UP ON THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR
THE COAST AND MID 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT LATER TONIGHT. THE WEAK
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE FAVOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING
INLAND AND PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS
VERY CONSERVATIVE REGARDING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...THUS FAR NO
WORSE THAN MVFR LATE TONIGHT. THE SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE IS ALSO
SHOWING PRACTICALLY NO REDUCTIONS IN CATEGORY. QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS IS HEADING FOR THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...POTENTIALLY
THROTTLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING ENOUGH TO PREVENT A
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT. AT THIS POINT...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT SOME FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE UNTIL SOME TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. THUS WE
MAINTAINED VERY SIMILAR FORECAST FROM THE 18Z TAFS...MVFR VSBY AT
BOTH TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID TUESDAY MORNING.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF DIRECTION FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KNOTS FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET IN
MANY AREAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT UP INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN
GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE LEVELS THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA

PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF EVENING HIGH TIDES
STARTING TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS
SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2
PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE
GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC
COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DPB/MTE
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/JRL
MARINE...DPB/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 272349
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
749 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT BY MORNING IN MOST
AREAS. FOR NOW INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT BASED
ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED LIGHTER
WINDS TONIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOP. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ADD SOME DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT FOR SOME AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
MAINLY BE FROM THE LOWER 70S FAR INLAND TO THE MID TO EVEN UPPER
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
OVERALL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND
ENCOUNTERS AMPLE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES OF PRECIP
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SET
UP ON THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR
THE COAST AND MID 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT LATER TONIGHT. THE WEAK
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE FAVOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING
INLAND AND PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS
VERY CONSERVATIVE REGARDING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...THUS FAR NO
WORSE THAN MVFR LATE TONIGHT. THE SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE IS ALSO
SHOWING PRACTICALLY NO REDUCTIONS IN CATEGORY. QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS IS HEADING FOR THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...POTENTIALLY
THROTTLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING ENOUGH TO PREVENT A
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT. AT THIS POINT...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT SOME FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE UNTIL SOME TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. THUS WE
MAINTAINED VERY SIMILAR FORECAST FROM THE 18Z TAFS...MVFR VSBY AT
BOTH TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID TUESDAY MORNING.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF DIRECTION FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KNOTS FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET IN
MANY AREAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT UP INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN
GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE LEVELS THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA

PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF EVENING HIGH TIDES
STARTING TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS
SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2
PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE
GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC
COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DPB/MTE
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/JRL
MARINE...DPB/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 272349
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
749 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT BY MORNING IN MOST
AREAS. FOR NOW INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT BASED
ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED LIGHTER
WINDS TONIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOP. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ADD SOME DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT FOR SOME AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
MAINLY BE FROM THE LOWER 70S FAR INLAND TO THE MID TO EVEN UPPER
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
OVERALL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND
ENCOUNTERS AMPLE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES OF PRECIP
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SET
UP ON THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR
THE COAST AND MID 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT LATER TONIGHT. THE WEAK
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE FAVOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING
INLAND AND PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS
VERY CONSERVATIVE REGARDING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...THUS FAR NO
WORSE THAN MVFR LATE TONIGHT. THE SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE IS ALSO
SHOWING PRACTICALLY NO REDUCTIONS IN CATEGORY. QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS IS HEADING FOR THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...POTENTIALLY
THROTTLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING ENOUGH TO PREVENT A
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT. AT THIS POINT...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT SOME FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE UNTIL SOME TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. THUS WE
MAINTAINED VERY SIMILAR FORECAST FROM THE 18Z TAFS...MVFR VSBY AT
BOTH TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID TUESDAY MORNING.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF DIRECTION FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KNOTS FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET IN
MANY AREAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT UP INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN
GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE LEVELS THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA

PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF EVENING HIGH TIDES
STARTING TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS
SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2
PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE
GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC
COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DPB/MTE
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/JRL
MARINE...DPB/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 272349
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
749 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT BY MORNING IN MOST
AREAS. FOR NOW INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT BASED
ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED LIGHTER
WINDS TONIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOP. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ADD SOME DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT FOR SOME AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
MAINLY BE FROM THE LOWER 70S FAR INLAND TO THE MID TO EVEN UPPER
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
OVERALL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND
ENCOUNTERS AMPLE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES OF PRECIP
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SET
UP ON THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR
THE COAST AND MID 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT LATER TONIGHT. THE WEAK
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE FAVOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING
INLAND AND PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS
VERY CONSERVATIVE REGARDING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...THUS FAR NO
WORSE THAN MVFR LATE TONIGHT. THE SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE IS ALSO
SHOWING PRACTICALLY NO REDUCTIONS IN CATEGORY. QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS IS HEADING FOR THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...POTENTIALLY
THROTTLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING ENOUGH TO PREVENT A
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT. AT THIS POINT...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT SOME FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE UNTIL SOME TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. THUS WE
MAINTAINED VERY SIMILAR FORECAST FROM THE 18Z TAFS...MVFR VSBY AT
BOTH TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID TUESDAY MORNING.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF DIRECTION FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KNOTS FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET IN
MANY AREAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT UP INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN
GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE LEVELS THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA

PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF EVENING HIGH TIDES
STARTING TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS
SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2
PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE
GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC
COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DPB/MTE
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/JRL
MARINE...DPB/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 272349
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
749 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT BY MORNING IN MOST
AREAS. FOR NOW INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT BASED
ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED LIGHTER
WINDS TONIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOP. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ADD SOME DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT FOR SOME AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
MAINLY BE FROM THE LOWER 70S FAR INLAND TO THE MID TO EVEN UPPER
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
OVERALL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND
ENCOUNTERS AMPLE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES OF PRECIP
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SET
UP ON THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR
THE COAST AND MID 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT LATER TONIGHT. THE WEAK
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE FAVOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING
INLAND AND PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS
VERY CONSERVATIVE REGARDING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...THUS FAR NO
WORSE THAN MVFR LATE TONIGHT. THE SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE IS ALSO
SHOWING PRACTICALLY NO REDUCTIONS IN CATEGORY. QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS IS HEADING FOR THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...POTENTIALLY
THROTTLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING ENOUGH TO PREVENT A
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT. AT THIS POINT...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT SOME FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE UNTIL SOME TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. THUS WE
MAINTAINED VERY SIMILAR FORECAST FROM THE 18Z TAFS...MVFR VSBY AT
BOTH TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID TUESDAY MORNING.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF DIRECTION FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KNOTS FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET IN
MANY AREAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT UP INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN
GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE LEVELS THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA

PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF EVENING HIGH TIDES
STARTING TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS
SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2
PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE
GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC
COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DPB/MTE
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/JRL
MARINE...DPB/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




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