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000
FXUS62 KFFC 061054
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
554 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015



.UPDATE...
GETTING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN GA. CANT FIND
MANY RETURNS ON THE FFC RADAR...BUT THE COMPOSITE IMAGE IS LENDING
A FEW CLUES WITH SOME RETURNS OVER FAR NE GA. IN ADDITION...THE
500MB RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A SHEAR AXIS IN THE SAME VICINITY OF
THE RETURNS. SUSPECT MID LEVEL ENERGY IS FORCING LIGHT PRECIP OUT
OF ANY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM THE NORTH
INDICATE THAT SNOW IS STICKING...BUT AMOUNTS ARE LOW...AND LIMITED
TO A QUICK COATING. HRRR DOESN`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT IS PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SPECKLES IN THE
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. ALSO...GETTING SOME SPOTTY REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS COVERING THE LIGHT SNOW AND ANY SLICK
SPOTS ATTRIBUTED TO BLACK ICE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE
EARLY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS MAY TRY TO GO NE
BRIEFLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NW AFTER THE 500MB
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

MAX AND MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE GOOD NEW IS THAT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NORMAL
VALUES ON SATURDAY.

NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN RETURN FOR THE
WORK WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND THOUGH...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW AND
RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
GFS SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SE PART OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS VERY MINIMAL SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A SLIGHT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF CONTINUES THE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ ECMWF RUN.

LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE EXTENDED AND BECOME MORE MILD
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE KEPT ALL LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.

11

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. A BAND OF COLD AIR STRATOCU IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES SHORTLY. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
330-010 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  29  61  35 /  30   0   0   0
ATLANTA         47  31  59  37 /  30   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     42  25  55  30 /  10   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    45  27  58  31 /  30   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        51  32  64  36 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  30  58  37 /  30   0   0   0
MACON           49  30  62  34 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            45  26  58  29 /  20   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  48  28  61  31 /  30   0   0   0
VIDALIA         49  34  62  40 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

NLISTEMAA



000
FXUS62 KFFC 061054
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
554 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015



.UPDATE...
GETTING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN GA. CANT FIND
MANY RETURNS ON THE FFC RADAR...BUT THE COMPOSITE IMAGE IS LENDING
A FEW CLUES WITH SOME RETURNS OVER FAR NE GA. IN ADDITION...THE
500MB RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A SHEAR AXIS IN THE SAME VICINITY OF
THE RETURNS. SUSPECT MID LEVEL ENERGY IS FORCING LIGHT PRECIP OUT
OF ANY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM THE NORTH
INDICATE THAT SNOW IS STICKING...BUT AMOUNTS ARE LOW...AND LIMITED
TO A QUICK COATING. HRRR DOESN`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT IS PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SPECKLES IN THE
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. ALSO...GETTING SOME SPOTTY REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS COVERING THE LIGHT SNOW AND ANY SLICK
SPOTS ATTRIBUTED TO BLACK ICE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE
EARLY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS MAY TRY TO GO NE
BRIEFLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NW AFTER THE 500MB
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

MAX AND MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE GOOD NEW IS THAT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NORMAL
VALUES ON SATURDAY.

NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN RETURN FOR THE
WORK WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND THOUGH...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW AND
RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
GFS SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SE PART OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS VERY MINIMAL SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A SLIGHT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF CONTINUES THE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ ECMWF RUN.

LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE EXTENDED AND BECOME MORE MILD
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE KEPT ALL LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.

11

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. A BAND OF COLD AIR STRATOCU IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES SHORTLY. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
330-010 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  29  61  35 /  30   0   0   0
ATLANTA         47  31  59  37 /  30   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     42  25  55  30 /  10   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    45  27  58  31 /  30   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        51  32  64  36 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  30  58  37 /  30   0   0   0
MACON           49  30  62  34 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            45  26  58  29 /  20   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  48  28  61  31 /  30   0   0   0
VIDALIA         49  34  62  40 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

NLISTEMAA



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000
FXUS62 KCAE 061048
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
548 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
RELAX AS THE RIDGE GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF THE COLD AIR
MASS WITH SNOW COVER UPSTREAM. STRONG NET RADIATION COOLING
SUPPORTS THE COLDER GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WITH HIGHS NEAR 70
SATURDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WIND SUPPORTS THE
COLD GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH THE RIDGE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST COAST DURING MUCH OF THE REMAINING
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO 40
PERCENT EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDGE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF AGS/DNL AT 07Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF IFR THROUGH
07Z WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER 15Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

MVFR CIGS REMAINING THROUGH 14Z-16Z. VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 061048
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
548 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
RELAX AS THE RIDGE GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF THE COLD AIR
MASS WITH SNOW COVER UPSTREAM. STRONG NET RADIATION COOLING
SUPPORTS THE COLDER GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WITH HIGHS NEAR 70
SATURDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WIND SUPPORTS THE
COLD GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH THE RIDGE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST COAST DURING MUCH OF THE REMAINING
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO 40
PERCENT EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDGE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF AGS/DNL AT 07Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF IFR THROUGH
07Z WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER 15Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

MVFR CIGS REMAINING THROUGH 14Z-16Z. VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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000
FXUS62 KCHS 060906
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
406 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

...HIGHS 35 TO 40 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS STEADILY PUSHING
SOUTH THIS MORNING AND IS DEPICTED ON RADAR AS A SOUTHWARD MOVING
FINE LINE. THE BOUNDARY IS ON TARGET TO CLEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BY 4-5 AM. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY WITH
ITS PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE STEADILY FILLING
IN ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WEAK 295-300K ISENTROPIC ASSENT INTENSIFIES. TEMPERATURES ARE
STEADILY FALLING WITHIN A STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AND ARE POISED TO DROP FURTHER INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES COULD FALL TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY AS WET-BULB TEMPERATURES
DROP TO THE 30-32 DEGREE RANGE. SOME PATCHES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR EVEN FREEZING RAIN STILL CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS A
RESULT...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN REACHES OF BERKELEY...
UPPER CHARLESTON AND POSSIBLY UPPER DORCHESTER COUNTIES. EVEN IF
VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPS...ANY IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL
AT BEST AND CONFINED TO TREES AND ELEVATED SURFACE AS GROUND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM COURTESY OF HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR
THE PAST TWO DAYS.

TODAY...CONSIDERABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF STRONG COLD FRONT. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES WITH MID-UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE...BUT STIFF NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THESE HIGHS ARE ABOUT 35-40 DEGREES COOLER
THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY WHERE LOWER-MID 80S WERE COMMON
AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT HIGHS MAY NOT
BREACH 40 DEGREES IN THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA IF DRIZZLE AND
RESULTING DIABATIC COOLING LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. BECAUSE OF MIDNIGHT HIGHS...THE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR THE DATE AT ALL THREE CLIMATE SITES ARE
SAFE. WEAK 295-300K ISENTROPIC ASSENT WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
MORNING...BUT THIS RISK WILL END LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
WORKS SOUTH AND ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE ENSUES. CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG
TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...POSSIBLY BREAKING BY LATE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.

LAKE WINDS...GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON LAKE MOULTRIE
THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WANES. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN FORCE THROUGH LATE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WELL TO
THE NORTH. THERE COULD BE A BAND OF JET ENHANCED CIRRUS THAT
LINGERS THE REGION THROUGH LATE EVENING...BUT MODEL DERIVED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CIRRUS WILL BE QUITE THIN. HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LOOKS
TO BUILD FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT FULL DECOUPLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIKELY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM/LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE SOLID RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS SO GENERALLY FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOP TO CONSTRUCT OVERNIGHT LOWS.

EXPECT MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
WITH MID 30S ALONG THE MID-UPPER GEORGIA COAST. THE FREEZE WATCH
WILL THEREFORE BE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL ZONES
EXCEPT THE GEORGIA COASTAL ZONES WHERE A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE
RAISED. FREEZE DURATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 9-12 HOURS WELL
INLAND...4-8 HOURS LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND CENTRAL
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ZONES WITH 2-4 HOURS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-16
CORRIDOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND...AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND THEN SLIPS OFF THE EAST COAST. A STEADY WARMING
TREND WILL OCCUR...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S
NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH SATURDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY DOWNSTREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING UP FROM
THE GULF COAST/SOUTHERN PLAINS...HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR
ZERO THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...RIDING WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW BETWEEN A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN STATES AND RIDGING FAR IN
THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP JUST
OFF OR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND STRETCH BACK THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WHEN COMBINED
WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DEVELOPING FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...WILL SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE REMAINS NOTABLE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN A FEW OF THE
FORECAST MODELS REGARDING THE SPEED WITH WHICH DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS
TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND THUS THERE ARE SOME DISTINCT DRY
VERSUS WET SCENARIOS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD
PERSISTENCE AND THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION BY INDICATING RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...PEAKING IN THE
30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY. THICK CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S INLAND...WHILE A RENEWED NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THICKENING
CLOUDS COMBINE TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAIN RATHER LOW
CONSIDERING PERSISTENT MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITHIN A RELATIVELY
CHANGEABLE PATTERN. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCATION OF A
LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT AND ANY WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE....AS WELL
AS A RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE ENHANCED BY CONTINUAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE HELD JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS INLAND AND NORTHERN ZONES AS A
RESULT. HAVE INCLUDED RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
WEEK...HIGHEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...PREFER TO
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GENERIC AND FLEXIBLE REGARDING THE FORECAST...AS
RAIN POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS MODELS HOPEFULLY COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE 60S EACH
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR LOW 70S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ZONES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL...MAINLY A
RESULT OF THE INSULATING EFFECTS OF CLOUD COVER THAT IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS WILL TEETER BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...LIKELY SETTING IN TO IFR AFTER 09Z. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST. WILL
MAINTAIN MENTION OF IFR CIGS AT BOTH KCHS/KSAV WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MVFR 13-14Z. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 18Z AT BOTH
TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
-DZ.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...BUOY AND PILOT BOAT REPORTS INDICATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ARE IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
GALES LOOK ON TARGET FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS WHERE WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35
KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING. OVER THE REMAINING MARINE
LEGS...20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT LOOK GOOD WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. SEAS WILL PEAK SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH 4-7 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 7-9 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. THE GALE WARNINGS ARE
SET TO EXPIRE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY BE
REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT THAT TIME. EXPECT ALL
HEADLINES TO BE DROPPED FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH
A BIT OF PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST TO HOLD UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ELEVATED NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NO MARINE
CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A
FLUCTUATING STATIONARY FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG THE FEATURE. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS...HOWEVER ANY CHANGES TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT
AND/OR THE STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES COULD SUPPORT STRONGER
WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR GAZ099>101.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GAZ114>116-
     118-137-138-140.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GAZ117-119-
     139-141.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR SCZ047>052.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     SCZ040-042>045.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ352-
     354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 060906
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
406 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

...HIGHS 35 TO 40 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS STEADILY PUSHING
SOUTH THIS MORNING AND IS DEPICTED ON RADAR AS A SOUTHWARD MOVING
FINE LINE. THE BOUNDARY IS ON TARGET TO CLEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BY 4-5 AM. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY WITH
ITS PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE STEADILY FILLING
IN ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WEAK 295-300K ISENTROPIC ASSENT INTENSIFIES. TEMPERATURES ARE
STEADILY FALLING WITHIN A STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AND ARE POISED TO DROP FURTHER INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES COULD FALL TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY AS WET-BULB TEMPERATURES
DROP TO THE 30-32 DEGREE RANGE. SOME PATCHES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR EVEN FREEZING RAIN STILL CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS A
RESULT...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN REACHES OF BERKELEY...
UPPER CHARLESTON AND POSSIBLY UPPER DORCHESTER COUNTIES. EVEN IF
VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPS...ANY IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL
AT BEST AND CONFINED TO TREES AND ELEVATED SURFACE AS GROUND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM COURTESY OF HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR
THE PAST TWO DAYS.

TODAY...CONSIDERABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF STRONG COLD FRONT. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES WITH MID-UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE...BUT STIFF NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THESE HIGHS ARE ABOUT 35-40 DEGREES COOLER
THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY WHERE LOWER-MID 80S WERE COMMON
AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT HIGHS MAY NOT
BREACH 40 DEGREES IN THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA IF DRIZZLE AND
RESULTING DIABATIC COOLING LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. BECAUSE OF MIDNIGHT HIGHS...THE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR THE DATE AT ALL THREE CLIMATE SITES ARE
SAFE. WEAK 295-300K ISENTROPIC ASSENT WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
MORNING...BUT THIS RISK WILL END LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
WORKS SOUTH AND ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE ENSUES. CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG
TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...POSSIBLY BREAKING BY LATE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.

LAKE WINDS...GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON LAKE MOULTRIE
THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WANES. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN FORCE THROUGH LATE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WELL TO
THE NORTH. THERE COULD BE A BAND OF JET ENHANCED CIRRUS THAT
LINGERS THE REGION THROUGH LATE EVENING...BUT MODEL DERIVED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CIRRUS WILL BE QUITE THIN. HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LOOKS
TO BUILD FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT FULL DECOUPLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIKELY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM/LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE SOLID RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS SO GENERALLY FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOP TO CONSTRUCT OVERNIGHT LOWS.

EXPECT MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
WITH MID 30S ALONG THE MID-UPPER GEORGIA COAST. THE FREEZE WATCH
WILL THEREFORE BE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL ZONES
EXCEPT THE GEORGIA COASTAL ZONES WHERE A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE
RAISED. FREEZE DURATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 9-12 HOURS WELL
INLAND...4-8 HOURS LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND CENTRAL
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ZONES WITH 2-4 HOURS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-16
CORRIDOR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND...AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND THEN SLIPS OFF THE EAST COAST. A STEADY WARMING
TREND WILL OCCUR...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S
NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH SATURDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY DOWNSTREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING UP FROM
THE GULF COAST/SOUTHERN PLAINS...HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR
ZERO THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...RIDING WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW BETWEEN A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN STATES AND RIDGING FAR IN
THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP JUST
OFF OR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND STRETCH BACK THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WHEN COMBINED
WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DEVELOPING FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...WILL SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE REMAINS NOTABLE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN A FEW OF THE
FORECAST MODELS REGARDING THE SPEED WITH WHICH DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS
TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND THUS THERE ARE SOME DISTINCT DRY
VERSUS WET SCENARIOS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD
PERSISTENCE AND THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION BY INDICATING RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...PEAKING IN THE
30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY. THICK CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S INLAND...WHILE A RENEWED NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THICKENING
CLOUDS COMBINE TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAIN RATHER LOW
CONSIDERING PERSISTENT MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITHIN A RELATIVELY
CHANGEABLE PATTERN. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCATION OF A
LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT AND ANY WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE....AS WELL
AS A RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE ENHANCED BY CONTINUAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE HELD JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS INLAND AND NORTHERN ZONES AS A
RESULT. HAVE INCLUDED RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
WEEK...HIGHEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...PREFER TO
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GENERIC AND FLEXIBLE REGARDING THE FORECAST...AS
RAIN POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS MODELS HOPEFULLY COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE 60S EACH
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR LOW 70S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ZONES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL...MAINLY A
RESULT OF THE INSULATING EFFECTS OF CLOUD COVER THAT IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS WILL TEETER BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...LIKELY SETTING IN TO IFR AFTER 09Z. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST. WILL
MAINTAIN MENTION OF IFR CIGS AT BOTH KCHS/KSAV WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MVFR 13-14Z. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 18Z AT BOTH
TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
-DZ.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...BUOY AND PILOT BOAT REPORTS INDICATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ARE IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
GALES LOOK ON TARGET FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS WHERE WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35
KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING. OVER THE REMAINING MARINE
LEGS...20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT LOOK GOOD WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. SEAS WILL PEAK SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH 4-7 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 7-9 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. THE GALE WARNINGS ARE
SET TO EXPIRE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY BE
REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT THAT TIME. EXPECT ALL
HEADLINES TO BE DROPPED FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH
A BIT OF PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST TO HOLD UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-6 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ELEVATED NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NO MARINE
CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A
FLUCTUATING STATIONARY FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG THE FEATURE. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS...HOWEVER ANY CHANGES TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT
AND/OR THE STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES COULD SUPPORT STRONGER
WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR GAZ099>101.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GAZ114>116-
     118-137-138-140.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GAZ117-119-
     139-141.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR SCZ047>052.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     SCZ040-042>045.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ352-
     354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST/WMS



000
FXUS62 KFFC 060817
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
317 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE
EARLY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS MAY TRY TO GO NE
BRIEFLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NW AFTER THE 500MB
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

MAX AND MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE GOOD NEW IS THAT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NORMAL
VALUES ON SATURDAY.

NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN RETURN FOR THE
WORK WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND THOUGH...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW AND
RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
GFS SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SE PART OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS VERY MINIMAL SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A SLIGHT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF CONTINUES THE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ ECMWF RUN.

LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE EXTENDED AND BECOME MORE MILD
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE KEPT ALL LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. A BAND OF COLD AIR STRATOCU IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES SHORTLY. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
330-010 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  29  61  35 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         47  31  59  37 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     42  25  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    45  27  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        51  32  64  36 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  30  58  37 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           49  30  62  34 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            45  26  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  48  28  61  31 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         49  34  62  40 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA



000
FXUS62 KFFC 060817
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
317 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE
EARLY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS MAY TRY TO GO NE
BRIEFLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NW AFTER THE 500MB
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

MAX AND MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE GOOD NEW IS THAT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NORMAL
VALUES ON SATURDAY.

NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN RETURN FOR THE
WORK WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND THOUGH...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW AND
RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
GFS SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SE PART OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS VERY MINIMAL SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A SLIGHT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF CONTINUES THE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ ECMWF RUN.

LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE EXTENDED AND BECOME MORE MILD
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE KEPT ALL LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. A BAND OF COLD AIR STRATOCU IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES SHORTLY. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
330-010 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  29  61  35 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         47  31  59  37 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     42  25  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    45  27  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        51  32  64  36 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  30  58  37 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           49  30  62  34 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            45  26  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  48  28  61  31 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         49  34  62  40 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA




000
FXUS62 KCAE 060725
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
225 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
RELAX AS THE RIDGE GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF THE COLD AIR
MASS WITH SNOW COVER UPSTREAM. STRONG NET RADIATION COOLING
SUPPORTS THE COLDER GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WITH HIGHS NEAR 70
SATURDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WIND SUPPORTS THE
COLD GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH THE RIDGE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST COAST DURING MUCH OF THE REMAINING
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO 40
PERCENT EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDGE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF AGS/DNL AT 07Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF IFR THROUGH
07Z WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER 15Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

MVFR CIGS REMAINING THROUGH 14Z-16Z. VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 060725
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
225 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
RELAX AS THE RIDGE GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF THE COLD AIR
MASS WITH SNOW COVER UPSTREAM. STRONG NET RADIATION COOLING
SUPPORTS THE COLDER GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WITH HIGHS NEAR 70
SATURDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WIND SUPPORTS THE
COLD GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH THE RIDGE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST COAST DURING MUCH OF THE REMAINING
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO 40
PERCENT EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDGE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF AGS/DNL AT 07Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF IFR THROUGH
07Z WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER 15Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

MVFR CIGS REMAINING THROUGH 14Z-16Z. VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 060650
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
150 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
RELAX AS THE RIDGE GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF THE COLD AIR
MASS WITH SNOW COVER UPSTREAM. STRONG NET RADIATION COOLING
SUPPORTS THE COLDER GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WITH HIGHS NEAR 70
SATURDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WIND SUPPORTS THE
COLD GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH THE RIDGE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST COAST DURING MUCH OF THE REMAINING
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO 40
PERCENT EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDGE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF AGS/DNL AT 07Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF IFR THROUGH
07Z WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER 15Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

MVFR CIGS REMAINING THROUGH 14Z-16Z. VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 060650
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
150 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
RELAX AS THE RIDGE GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF THE COLD AIR
MASS WITH SNOW COVER UPSTREAM. STRONG NET RADIATION COOLING
SUPPORTS THE COLDER GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WITH HIGHS NEAR 70
SATURDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WIND SUPPORTS THE
COLD GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH THE RIDGE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST COAST DURING MUCH OF THE REMAINING
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO 40
PERCENT EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDGE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF AGS/DNL AT 07Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF IFR THROUGH
07Z WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER 15Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

MVFR CIGS REMAINING THROUGH 14Z-16Z. VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 060542
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1242 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...

IT HAS BEEN QUITE THE CLOSE CALL FOR NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING
WITH COLDEST OF THE AIR RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. REPORTS OF SLEET AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW
MIXING IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER BEFORE PRECIP PULLED OUT
BUT BY AND LARGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...IT HAS BEEN A
RAIN EVENT. THIS IS SHOWN IN 00Z FFC SOUNDING WHICH CAME IN WITH A
VERY STRONG WARM NOSE AT 750 MB OF OVER 6C. THIS WENT BACK BELOW
FREEZING AT 890MB WHICH IS WHY WE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET
MIXING IN AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

REGARDLESS OF WHO SAW WHAT WITH THIS EVENT...ROADS LIKELY REMAIN
WET OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS TEMPS PLUNGE INTO THE MID 20S. WINDS
ARE HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS COMMON PLACE.
IMPRESSIVE 70KT AT 8K FT ON SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL STILL THERE
FOR CONTINUED SURFACE GUSTS WHICH SHOULD FURTHER AID IN DRYING
THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS TO MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE
OVERNIGHT AND SPS LOOKS GOOD TO KEEP IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

DEESE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. A BAND OF COLD AIR STRATOCU IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES SHORTLY. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
330-010 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  29  59  36 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         46  33  58  38 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     43  26  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    45  26  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        49  32  61  37 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  33  57  37 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           50  28  61  33 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            43  25  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  47  26  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         51  33  61  40 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS62 KFFC 060542
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1242 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...

IT HAS BEEN QUITE THE CLOSE CALL FOR NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING
WITH COLDEST OF THE AIR RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. REPORTS OF SLEET AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW
MIXING IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER BEFORE PRECIP PULLED OUT
BUT BY AND LARGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...IT HAS BEEN A
RAIN EVENT. THIS IS SHOWN IN 00Z FFC SOUNDING WHICH CAME IN WITH A
VERY STRONG WARM NOSE AT 750 MB OF OVER 6C. THIS WENT BACK BELOW
FREEZING AT 890MB WHICH IS WHY WE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET
MIXING IN AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

REGARDLESS OF WHO SAW WHAT WITH THIS EVENT...ROADS LIKELY REMAIN
WET OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS TEMPS PLUNGE INTO THE MID 20S. WINDS
ARE HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS COMMON PLACE.
IMPRESSIVE 70KT AT 8K FT ON SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL STILL THERE
FOR CONTINUED SURFACE GUSTS WHICH SHOULD FURTHER AID IN DRYING
THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS TO MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE
OVERNIGHT AND SPS LOOKS GOOD TO KEEP IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

DEESE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. A BAND OF COLD AIR STRATOCU IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES SHORTLY. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
330-010 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  29  59  36 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         46  33  58  38 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     43  26  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    45  26  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        49  32  61  37 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  33  57  37 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           50  28  61  33 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            43  25  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  47  26  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         51  33  61  40 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS62 KFFC 060542
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1242 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...

IT HAS BEEN QUITE THE CLOSE CALL FOR NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING
WITH COLDEST OF THE AIR RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. REPORTS OF SLEET AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW
MIXING IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER BEFORE PRECIP PULLED OUT
BUT BY AND LARGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...IT HAS BEEN A
RAIN EVENT. THIS IS SHOWN IN 00Z FFC SOUNDING WHICH CAME IN WITH A
VERY STRONG WARM NOSE AT 750 MB OF OVER 6C. THIS WENT BACK BELOW
FREEZING AT 890MB WHICH IS WHY WE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET
MIXING IN AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

REGARDLESS OF WHO SAW WHAT WITH THIS EVENT...ROADS LIKELY REMAIN
WET OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS TEMPS PLUNGE INTO THE MID 20S. WINDS
ARE HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS COMMON PLACE.
IMPRESSIVE 70KT AT 8K FT ON SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL STILL THERE
FOR CONTINUED SURFACE GUSTS WHICH SHOULD FURTHER AID IN DRYING
THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS TO MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE
OVERNIGHT AND SPS LOOKS GOOD TO KEEP IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

DEESE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. A BAND OF COLD AIR STRATOCU IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES SHORTLY. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
330-010 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  29  59  36 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         46  33  58  38 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     43  26  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    45  26  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        49  32  61  37 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  33  57  37 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           50  28  61  33 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            43  25  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  47  26  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         51  33  61  40 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS62 KFFC 060542
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1242 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...

IT HAS BEEN QUITE THE CLOSE CALL FOR NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING
WITH COLDEST OF THE AIR RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. REPORTS OF SLEET AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW
MIXING IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER BEFORE PRECIP PULLED OUT
BUT BY AND LARGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...IT HAS BEEN A
RAIN EVENT. THIS IS SHOWN IN 00Z FFC SOUNDING WHICH CAME IN WITH A
VERY STRONG WARM NOSE AT 750 MB OF OVER 6C. THIS WENT BACK BELOW
FREEZING AT 890MB WHICH IS WHY WE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET
MIXING IN AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

REGARDLESS OF WHO SAW WHAT WITH THIS EVENT...ROADS LIKELY REMAIN
WET OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS TEMPS PLUNGE INTO THE MID 20S. WINDS
ARE HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS COMMON PLACE.
IMPRESSIVE 70KT AT 8K FT ON SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL STILL THERE
FOR CONTINUED SURFACE GUSTS WHICH SHOULD FURTHER AID IN DRYING
THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS TO MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE
OVERNIGHT AND SPS LOOKS GOOD TO KEEP IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

DEESE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. A BAND OF COLD AIR STRATOCU IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES SHORTLY. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
330-010 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  29  59  36 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         46  33  58  38 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     43  26  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    45  26  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        49  32  61  37 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  33  57  37 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           50  28  61  33 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            43  25  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  47  26  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         51  33  61  40 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS62 KFFC 060542
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1242 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...

IT HAS BEEN QUITE THE CLOSE CALL FOR NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING
WITH COLDEST OF THE AIR RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. REPORTS OF SLEET AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW
MIXING IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER BEFORE PRECIP PULLED OUT
BUT BY AND LARGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...IT HAS BEEN A
RAIN EVENT. THIS IS SHOWN IN 00Z FFC SOUNDING WHICH CAME IN WITH A
VERY STRONG WARM NOSE AT 750 MB OF OVER 6C. THIS WENT BACK BELOW
FREEZING AT 890MB WHICH IS WHY WE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET
MIXING IN AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

REGARDLESS OF WHO SAW WHAT WITH THIS EVENT...ROADS LIKELY REMAIN
WET OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS TEMPS PLUNGE INTO THE MID 20S. WINDS
ARE HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS COMMON PLACE.
IMPRESSIVE 70KT AT 8K FT ON SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL STILL THERE
FOR CONTINUED SURFACE GUSTS WHICH SHOULD FURTHER AID IN DRYING
THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS TO MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE
OVERNIGHT AND SPS LOOKS GOOD TO KEEP IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

DEESE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. A BAND OF COLD AIR STRATOCU IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES SHORTLY. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
330-010 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  29  59  36 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         46  33  58  38 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     43  26  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    45  26  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        49  32  61  37 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  33  57  37 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           50  28  61  33 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            43  25  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  47  26  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         51  33  61  40 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS62 KFFC 060542
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1242 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...

IT HAS BEEN QUITE THE CLOSE CALL FOR NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING
WITH COLDEST OF THE AIR RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. REPORTS OF SLEET AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW
MIXING IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER BEFORE PRECIP PULLED OUT
BUT BY AND LARGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...IT HAS BEEN A
RAIN EVENT. THIS IS SHOWN IN 00Z FFC SOUNDING WHICH CAME IN WITH A
VERY STRONG WARM NOSE AT 750 MB OF OVER 6C. THIS WENT BACK BELOW
FREEZING AT 890MB WHICH IS WHY WE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET
MIXING IN AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

REGARDLESS OF WHO SAW WHAT WITH THIS EVENT...ROADS LIKELY REMAIN
WET OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS TEMPS PLUNGE INTO THE MID 20S. WINDS
ARE HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS COMMON PLACE.
IMPRESSIVE 70KT AT 8K FT ON SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL STILL THERE
FOR CONTINUED SURFACE GUSTS WHICH SHOULD FURTHER AID IN DRYING
THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS TO MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE
OVERNIGHT AND SPS LOOKS GOOD TO KEEP IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

DEESE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. A BAND OF COLD AIR STRATOCU IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES SHORTLY. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
330-010 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  29  59  36 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         46  33  58  38 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     43  26  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    45  26  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        49  32  61  37 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  33  57  37 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           50  28  61  33 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            43  25  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  47  26  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         51  33  61  40 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 060526
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1226 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR IS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH AND IS MARKED
BY A FINE LINE ON KCLX 0.5 DEG REFLECTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY 4 AM BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. RAIN IS
QUICKLY ENDING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE FILLING IN BEHIND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE. H3R AND RAP WET-BULB FREEZING LINE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF BERKELEY COUNTY AFTER 4 AM WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -FZDZ IN
THE GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WILL INCREASE
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KT RANGE...AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LINGER INTO MID
TO LATE MORNING. THIS COULD SPUR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL FACILITATE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE GA COASTAL ZONES AND IMMEDIATE SC COAST.
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES MINUS THE GA COASTAL AREAS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY TEMPS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS WILL TEETER BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...LIKELY SETTING IN TO IFR AFTER 09Z. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST. WILL
MAINTAIN MENTION OF IFR CIGS AT BOTH KCHS/KSAV WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MVFR 13-14Z. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 18Z AT BOTH
TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
-DZ.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LOOK WELL PLACED.

TONIGHT...A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO RAPID DETERIORATION AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT USHERS AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AND QUICKLY INCREASING WINDS AS COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS. THE ONGOING GALE
WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AND REMAINS IN EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT AN OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ352-
     354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 060526
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1226 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR IS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH AND IS MARKED
BY A FINE LINE ON KCLX 0.5 DEG REFLECTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY 4 AM BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. RAIN IS
QUICKLY ENDING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE FILLING IN BEHIND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE. H3R AND RAP WET-BULB FREEZING LINE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF BERKELEY COUNTY AFTER 4 AM WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -FZDZ IN
THE GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WILL INCREASE
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KT RANGE...AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LINGER INTO MID
TO LATE MORNING. THIS COULD SPUR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL FACILITATE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE GA COASTAL ZONES AND IMMEDIATE SC COAST.
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES MINUS THE GA COASTAL AREAS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY TEMPS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS WILL TEETER BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...LIKELY SETTING IN TO IFR AFTER 09Z. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST. WILL
MAINTAIN MENTION OF IFR CIGS AT BOTH KCHS/KSAV WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MVFR 13-14Z. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 18Z AT BOTH
TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
-DZ.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LOOK WELL PLACED.

TONIGHT...A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO RAPID DETERIORATION AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT USHERS AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AND QUICKLY INCREASING WINDS AS COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS. THE ONGOING GALE
WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AND REMAINS IN EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT AN OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ352-
     354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 060526
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1226 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR IS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH AND IS MARKED
BY A FINE LINE ON KCLX 0.5 DEG REFLECTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY 4 AM BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. RAIN IS
QUICKLY ENDING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE FILLING IN BEHIND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE. H3R AND RAP WET-BULB FREEZING LINE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF BERKELEY COUNTY AFTER 4 AM WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -FZDZ IN
THE GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WILL INCREASE
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KT RANGE...AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LINGER INTO MID
TO LATE MORNING. THIS COULD SPUR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL FACILITATE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE GA COASTAL ZONES AND IMMEDIATE SC COAST.
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES MINUS THE GA COASTAL AREAS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY TEMPS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS WILL TEETER BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...LIKELY SETTING IN TO IFR AFTER 09Z. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST. WILL
MAINTAIN MENTION OF IFR CIGS AT BOTH KCHS/KSAV WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MVFR 13-14Z. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 18Z AT BOTH
TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
-DZ.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LOOK WELL PLACED.

TONIGHT...A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO RAPID DETERIORATION AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT USHERS AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AND QUICKLY INCREASING WINDS AS COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS. THE ONGOING GALE
WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AND REMAINS IN EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT AN OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ352-
     354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 060526
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1226 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR IS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH AND IS MARKED
BY A FINE LINE ON KCLX 0.5 DEG REFLECTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY 4 AM BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. RAIN IS
QUICKLY ENDING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE FILLING IN BEHIND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE. H3R AND RAP WET-BULB FREEZING LINE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF BERKELEY COUNTY AFTER 4 AM WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -FZDZ IN
THE GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WILL INCREASE
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KT RANGE...AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LINGER INTO MID
TO LATE MORNING. THIS COULD SPUR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL FACILITATE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE GA COASTAL ZONES AND IMMEDIATE SC COAST.
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES MINUS THE GA COASTAL AREAS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY TEMPS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS WILL TEETER BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...LIKELY SETTING IN TO IFR AFTER 09Z. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST. WILL
MAINTAIN MENTION OF IFR CIGS AT BOTH KCHS/KSAV WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO MVFR 13-14Z. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 18Z AT BOTH
TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
-DZ.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LOOK WELL PLACED.

TONIGHT...A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO RAPID DETERIORATION AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT USHERS AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AND QUICKLY INCREASING WINDS AS COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS. THE ONGOING GALE
WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AND REMAINS IN EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT AN OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ352-
     354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 060349
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1049 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATE THURSDAY EVENING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK.
CONTINUED TO ADJUST HOURLY FORECAST PARAMETERS...INCLUDING
POPS...WINDS AND TEMPS...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND PROGRESS OF
THE COLD FRONT.

THE INITIAL COLD FROPA FOLLOWED BY RAIN HAD PUSHED TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 50S/60S. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MARKED BY AN ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND SHARPLY COLDER FEATURING
TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S WAS SURGING THROUGH
SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES...AND THIS MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL DRIVE
SOUTH PAST THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. BY
DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S/NEAR 40 WILL BE COMMON NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER COULD
APPROACH FREEZING.

LATE THURSDAY EVENING...BEST COVERAGE OF RAIN WAS PUSHING
OFFSHORE...AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY
THAT LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD BEGIN TO FREEZE ON SOME ELEVATED SURFACES
SUCH AS TREES AND METAL OBJECTS ACROSS INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION/ASSOCIATED
IMPACTS REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WILL INCREASE
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KT RANGE...AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LINGER INTO MID
TO LATE MORNING. THIS COULD SPUR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL FACILITATE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE GA COASTAL ZONES AND IMMEDIATE SC COAST.
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES MINUS THE GA COASTAL AREAS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY TEMPS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
THE PROSPECTS FOR IMPROVEMENT REMAIN LIMITED FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PERSISTS BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THUS...MAINTAINED MVFR CEILINGS AT KCHS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
INDICATED A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS AT KSAV AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THURSDAY EVENING...UPDATED FORECASTS AND ISSUED A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT TO ADDRESS PERSISTENT/PATCHY SEA FOG REPORTED OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TONIGHT...A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO RAPID DETERIORATION AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT USHERS AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AND QUICKLY INCREASING WINDS AS COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS. THE ONGOING GALE
WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AND REMAINS IN EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT AN OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JRL/SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 060349
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1049 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATE THURSDAY EVENING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK.
CONTINUED TO ADJUST HOURLY FORECAST PARAMETERS...INCLUDING
POPS...WINDS AND TEMPS...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND PROGRESS OF
THE COLD FRONT.

THE INITIAL COLD FROPA FOLLOWED BY RAIN HAD PUSHED TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 50S/60S. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MARKED BY AN ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND SHARPLY COLDER FEATURING
TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S WAS SURGING THROUGH
SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES...AND THIS MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL DRIVE
SOUTH PAST THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. BY
DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S/NEAR 40 WILL BE COMMON NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER COULD
APPROACH FREEZING.

LATE THURSDAY EVENING...BEST COVERAGE OF RAIN WAS PUSHING
OFFSHORE...AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY
THAT LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD BEGIN TO FREEZE ON SOME ELEVATED SURFACES
SUCH AS TREES AND METAL OBJECTS ACROSS INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION/ASSOCIATED
IMPACTS REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WILL INCREASE
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KT RANGE...AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LINGER INTO MID
TO LATE MORNING. THIS COULD SPUR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL FACILITATE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE GA COASTAL ZONES AND IMMEDIATE SC COAST.
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES MINUS THE GA COASTAL AREAS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY TEMPS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
THE PROSPECTS FOR IMPROVEMENT REMAIN LIMITED FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PERSISTS BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THUS...MAINTAINED MVFR CEILINGS AT KCHS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
INDICATED A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS AT KSAV AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THURSDAY EVENING...UPDATED FORECASTS AND ISSUED A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT TO ADDRESS PERSISTENT/PATCHY SEA FOG REPORTED OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TONIGHT...A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO RAPID DETERIORATION AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT USHERS AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AND QUICKLY INCREASING WINDS AS COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS. THE ONGOING GALE
WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AND REMAINS IN EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT AN OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JRL/SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCAE 060338
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1038 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET UP LATE SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA TONIGHT WITH A COLD AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. LINGERING MOISTURE IS CONTINUING TO
SUPPORT A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ALTHOUGH RADAR TRENDS
SUPPORT PRECIP DIMINISHING BY 07Z. STILL CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA DROP TO FREEZING OR BELOW. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OFF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE COAST
EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRY...AND COLD. THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE
HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
BY SUNDAY. FORECAST IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COLDEST DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR TRIES TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. SOME
MODIFICATION MAY BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN BY
SUNDAY...READING WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD
GENERALLY AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REENTER THE
REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM WITH POPS.
HOWEVER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...ALONG WITH
THE ADDED MOISTURE...CAN NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANGE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  GENERALLY KEPT A
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDGE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF AGS/DNL AT 03Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF IFR THROUGH
07Z WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER
15Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

MVFR CIGS REMAINING THROUGH 14Z-16Z. VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 060338
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1038 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET UP LATE SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA TONIGHT WITH A COLD AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. LINGERING MOISTURE IS CONTINUING TO
SUPPORT A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ALTHOUGH RADAR TRENDS
SUPPORT PRECIP DIMINISHING BY 07Z. STILL CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA DROP TO FREEZING OR BELOW. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OFF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE COAST
EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRY...AND COLD. THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE
HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
BY SUNDAY. FORECAST IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COLDEST DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR TRIES TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. SOME
MODIFICATION MAY BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN BY
SUNDAY...READING WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD
GENERALLY AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REENTER THE
REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM WITH POPS.
HOWEVER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...ALONG WITH
THE ADDED MOISTURE...CAN NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANGE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  GENERALLY KEPT A
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDGE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF AGS/DNL AT 03Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF IFR THROUGH
07Z WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER
15Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

MVFR CIGS REMAINING THROUGH 14Z-16Z. VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 060338
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1038 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET UP LATE SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA TONIGHT WITH A COLD AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. LINGERING MOISTURE IS CONTINUING TO
SUPPORT A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ALTHOUGH RADAR TRENDS
SUPPORT PRECIP DIMINISHING BY 07Z. STILL CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA DROP TO FREEZING OR BELOW. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OFF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE COAST
EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRY...AND COLD. THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE
HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
BY SUNDAY. FORECAST IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COLDEST DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR TRIES TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. SOME
MODIFICATION MAY BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN BY
SUNDAY...READING WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD
GENERALLY AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REENTER THE
REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM WITH POPS.
HOWEVER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...ALONG WITH
THE ADDED MOISTURE...CAN NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANGE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  GENERALLY KEPT A
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDGE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF AGS/DNL AT 03Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF IFR THROUGH
07Z WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER
15Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

MVFR CIGS REMAINING THROUGH 14Z-16Z. VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 060219
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
919 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THURSDAY EVENING...ADJUSTED HOURLY FORECAST PARAMETERS...INCLUDING
POPS...WINDS AND TEMPS...BASED ON ONGOING/EXPECTED TRENDS.

THE INITIAL COLD FROPA FOLLOWED BY RAIN HAD PUSHED TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 50S/60S. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MARKED BY AN ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND SHARPLY COLDER FEATURING
TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S WAS ADVANCING INTO
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS WILL DRIVE DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH TIME
TONIGHT. BY DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S/NEAR 40 WILL BE
COMMON NORTH OF INTERSTATE 16...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SANTEE
RIVER COULD APPROACH FREEZING.

CATEGORICAL POPS SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYERED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
A PLUME OF PWATS AROUND 1.50 INCHES WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE/DECREASING
COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE RAIN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY LATE
TONIGHT...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD
BEGIN TO FREEZE ON SOME ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND METAL
OBJECTS ACROSS INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY
FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION/ASSOCIATED IMPACTS REMAINS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WILL INCREASE
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KT RANGE...AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LINGER INTO MID
TO LATE MORNING. THIS COULD SPUR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL FACILITATE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE GA COASTAL ZONES AND IMMEDIATE SC COAST.
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES MINUS THE GA COASTAL AREAS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY TEMPS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
THE PROSPECTS FOR IMPROVEMENT REMAIN LIMITED FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PERSISTS BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THUS...MAINTAINED MVFR CEILINGS AT KCHS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
INDICATED A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS AT KSAV AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THURSDAY EVENING...UPDATED FORECASTS AND ISSUED A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT TO ADDRESS PERSISTENT/PATCHY SEA FOG REPORTED OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT PASSES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TONIGHT...A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO RAPID DETERIORATION AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT USHERS AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AND QUICKLY INCREASING WINDS AS COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS. THE ONGOING GALE
WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AND REMAINS IN EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT AN OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JRL/SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 060219
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
919 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THURSDAY EVENING...ADJUSTED HOURLY FORECAST PARAMETERS...INCLUDING
POPS...WINDS AND TEMPS...BASED ON ONGOING/EXPECTED TRENDS.

THE INITIAL COLD FROPA FOLLOWED BY RAIN HAD PUSHED TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 50S/60S. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MARKED BY AN ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND SHARPLY COLDER FEATURING
TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S WAS ADVANCING INTO
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS WILL DRIVE DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH TIME
TONIGHT. BY DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S/NEAR 40 WILL BE
COMMON NORTH OF INTERSTATE 16...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SANTEE
RIVER COULD APPROACH FREEZING.

CATEGORICAL POPS SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYERED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
A PLUME OF PWATS AROUND 1.50 INCHES WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE/DECREASING
COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE RAIN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY LATE
TONIGHT...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD
BEGIN TO FREEZE ON SOME ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND METAL
OBJECTS ACROSS INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY
FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION/ASSOCIATED IMPACTS REMAINS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WILL INCREASE
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KT RANGE...AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LINGER INTO MID
TO LATE MORNING. THIS COULD SPUR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL FACILITATE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE GA COASTAL ZONES AND IMMEDIATE SC COAST.
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES MINUS THE GA COASTAL AREAS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY TEMPS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
THE PROSPECTS FOR IMPROVEMENT REMAIN LIMITED FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PERSISTS BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THUS...MAINTAINED MVFR CEILINGS AT KCHS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
INDICATED A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS AT KSAV AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THURSDAY EVENING...UPDATED FORECASTS AND ISSUED A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT TO ADDRESS PERSISTENT/PATCHY SEA FOG REPORTED OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT PASSES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TONIGHT...A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO RAPID DETERIORATION AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT USHERS AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AND QUICKLY INCREASING WINDS AS COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS. THE ONGOING GALE
WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AND REMAINS IN EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT AN OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JRL/SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 060219
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
919 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THURSDAY EVENING...ADJUSTED HOURLY FORECAST PARAMETERS...INCLUDING
POPS...WINDS AND TEMPS...BASED ON ONGOING/EXPECTED TRENDS.

THE INITIAL COLD FROPA FOLLOWED BY RAIN HAD PUSHED TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 50S/60S. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MARKED BY AN ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND SHARPLY COLDER FEATURING
TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S WAS ADVANCING INTO
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS WILL DRIVE DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH TIME
TONIGHT. BY DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S/NEAR 40 WILL BE
COMMON NORTH OF INTERSTATE 16...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SANTEE
RIVER COULD APPROACH FREEZING.

CATEGORICAL POPS SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYERED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
A PLUME OF PWATS AROUND 1.50 INCHES WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE/DECREASING
COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE RAIN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY LATE
TONIGHT...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD
BEGIN TO FREEZE ON SOME ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND METAL
OBJECTS ACROSS INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY
FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION/ASSOCIATED IMPACTS REMAINS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WILL INCREASE
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KT RANGE...AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LINGER INTO MID
TO LATE MORNING. THIS COULD SPUR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL FACILITATE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE GA COASTAL ZONES AND IMMEDIATE SC COAST.
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES MINUS THE GA COASTAL AREAS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY TEMPS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
THE PROSPECTS FOR IMPROVEMENT REMAIN LIMITED FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PERSISTS BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THUS...MAINTAINED MVFR CEILINGS AT KCHS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
INDICATED A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS AT KSAV AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THURSDAY EVENING...UPDATED FORECASTS AND ISSUED A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT TO ADDRESS PERSISTENT/PATCHY SEA FOG REPORTED OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT PASSES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TONIGHT...A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO RAPID DETERIORATION AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT USHERS AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AND QUICKLY INCREASING WINDS AS COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS. THE ONGOING GALE
WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AND REMAINS IN EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT AN OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JRL/SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 060219
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
919 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THURSDAY EVENING...ADJUSTED HOURLY FORECAST PARAMETERS...INCLUDING
POPS...WINDS AND TEMPS...BASED ON ONGOING/EXPECTED TRENDS.

THE INITIAL COLD FROPA FOLLOWED BY RAIN HAD PUSHED TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 50S/60S. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MARKED BY AN ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND SHARPLY COLDER FEATURING
TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S WAS ADVANCING INTO
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS WILL DRIVE DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH TIME
TONIGHT. BY DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S/NEAR 40 WILL BE
COMMON NORTH OF INTERSTATE 16...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SANTEE
RIVER COULD APPROACH FREEZING.

CATEGORICAL POPS SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYERED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
A PLUME OF PWATS AROUND 1.50 INCHES WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE/DECREASING
COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE RAIN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY LATE
TONIGHT...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD
BEGIN TO FREEZE ON SOME ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND METAL
OBJECTS ACROSS INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY
FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION/ASSOCIATED IMPACTS REMAINS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WILL INCREASE
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KT RANGE...AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LINGER INTO MID
TO LATE MORNING. THIS COULD SPUR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL FACILITATE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE GA COASTAL ZONES AND IMMEDIATE SC COAST.
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES MINUS THE GA COASTAL AREAS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY TEMPS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
THE PROSPECTS FOR IMPROVEMENT REMAIN LIMITED FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PERSISTS BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THUS...MAINTAINED MVFR CEILINGS AT KCHS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
INDICATED A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS AT KSAV AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THURSDAY EVENING...UPDATED FORECASTS AND ISSUED A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT TO ADDRESS PERSISTENT/PATCHY SEA FOG REPORTED OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT PASSES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TONIGHT...A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO RAPID DETERIORATION AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT USHERS AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AND QUICKLY INCREASING WINDS AS COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS. THE ONGOING GALE
WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AND REMAINS IN EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT AN OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JRL/SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR



000
FXUS62 KFFC 060201
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
901 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...

IT HAS BEEN QUITE THE CLOSE CALL FOR NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING
WITH COLDEST OF THE AIR RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. REPORTS OF SLEET AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW
MIXING IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER BEFORE PRECIP PULLED OUT
BUT BY AND LARGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...IT HAS BEEN A
RAIN EVENT. THIS IS SHOWN IN 00Z FFC SOUNDING WHICH CAME IN WITH A
VERY STRONG WARM NOSE AT 750 MB OF OVER 6C. THIS WENT BACK BELOW
FREEZING AT 890MB WHICH IS WHY WE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET
MIXING IN AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

REGARDLESS OF WHO SAW WHAT WITH THIS EVENT...ROADS LIKELY REMAIN
WET OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS TEMPS PLUNGE INTO THE MID 20S. WINDS
ARE HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS COMMON PLACE.
IMPRESSIVE 70KT AT 8K FT ON SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL STILL THERE
FOR CONTINUED SURFACE GUSTS WHICH SHOULD FURTHER AID IN DRYING
THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS TO MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE
OVERNIGHT AND SPS LOOKS GOOD TO KEEP IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
STILL DEALING WITH ONE FINAL ROUND OF -RA FOR ATL SO INCLUDED A
SHORT TERM TEMPO WITH THIS TAF SET. ALSO OF NOT IS THE IFR AT RYY
AND SURROUNDING SITES SO THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME IFR
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE 00Z ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE...WIND BECOMING THE BIG STORY WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KTS
AT TIMES. EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THESE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
CERTAINLY HAVE INCREASED THE GUST POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM.
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT AFT 16Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT AND MVFR DURATION.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  46  29  59 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         28  46  33  58 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     23  43  26  54 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    24  45  26  56 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        32  49  32  61 /  30   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     27  45  33  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           32  50  28  61 /  40   5   0   0
ROME            25  43  25  55 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  27  47  26  59 /  20   5   0   0
VIDALIA         42  51  33  61 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE



000
FXUS62 KFFC 060201
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
901 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...

IT HAS BEEN QUITE THE CLOSE CALL FOR NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING
WITH COLDEST OF THE AIR RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. REPORTS OF SLEET AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW
MIXING IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER BEFORE PRECIP PULLED OUT
BUT BY AND LARGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...IT HAS BEEN A
RAIN EVENT. THIS IS SHOWN IN 00Z FFC SOUNDING WHICH CAME IN WITH A
VERY STRONG WARM NOSE AT 750 MB OF OVER 6C. THIS WENT BACK BELOW
FREEZING AT 890MB WHICH IS WHY WE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET
MIXING IN AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

REGARDLESS OF WHO SAW WHAT WITH THIS EVENT...ROADS LIKELY REMAIN
WET OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS TEMPS PLUNGE INTO THE MID 20S. WINDS
ARE HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS COMMON PLACE.
IMPRESSIVE 70KT AT 8K FT ON SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL STILL THERE
FOR CONTINUED SURFACE GUSTS WHICH SHOULD FURTHER AID IN DRYING
THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS TO MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE
OVERNIGHT AND SPS LOOKS GOOD TO KEEP IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
STILL DEALING WITH ONE FINAL ROUND OF -RA FOR ATL SO INCLUDED A
SHORT TERM TEMPO WITH THIS TAF SET. ALSO OF NOT IS THE IFR AT RYY
AND SURROUNDING SITES SO THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME IFR
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE 00Z ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE...WIND BECOMING THE BIG STORY WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KTS
AT TIMES. EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THESE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
CERTAINLY HAVE INCREASED THE GUST POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM.
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT AFT 16Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT AND MVFR DURATION.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  46  29  59 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         28  46  33  58 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     23  43  26  54 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    24  45  26  56 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        32  49  32  61 /  30   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     27  45  33  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           32  50  28  61 /  40   5   0   0
ROME            25  43  25  55 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  27  47  26  59 /  20   5   0   0
VIDALIA         42  51  33  61 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 060201
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
901 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...

IT HAS BEEN QUITE THE CLOSE CALL FOR NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING
WITH COLDEST OF THE AIR RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. REPORTS OF SLEET AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW
MIXING IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER BEFORE PRECIP PULLED OUT
BUT BY AND LARGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...IT HAS BEEN A
RAIN EVENT. THIS IS SHOWN IN 00Z FFC SOUNDING WHICH CAME IN WITH A
VERY STRONG WARM NOSE AT 750 MB OF OVER 6C. THIS WENT BACK BELOW
FREEZING AT 890MB WHICH IS WHY WE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET
MIXING IN AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

REGARDLESS OF WHO SAW WHAT WITH THIS EVENT...ROADS LIKELY REMAIN
WET OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS TEMPS PLUNGE INTO THE MID 20S. WINDS
ARE HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS COMMON PLACE.
IMPRESSIVE 70KT AT 8K FT ON SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL STILL THERE
FOR CONTINUED SURFACE GUSTS WHICH SHOULD FURTHER AID IN DRYING
THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS TO MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE
OVERNIGHT AND SPS LOOKS GOOD TO KEEP IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
STILL DEALING WITH ONE FINAL ROUND OF -RA FOR ATL SO INCLUDED A
SHORT TERM TEMPO WITH THIS TAF SET. ALSO OF NOT IS THE IFR AT RYY
AND SURROUNDING SITES SO THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME IFR
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE 00Z ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE...WIND BECOMING THE BIG STORY WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KTS
AT TIMES. EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THESE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
CERTAINLY HAVE INCREASED THE GUST POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM.
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT AFT 16Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT AND MVFR DURATION.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  46  29  59 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         28  46  33  58 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     23  43  26  54 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    24  45  26  56 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        32  49  32  61 /  30   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     27  45  33  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           32  50  28  61 /  40   5   0   0
ROME            25  43  25  55 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  27  47  26  59 /  20   5   0   0
VIDALIA         42  51  33  61 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 060201
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
901 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...

IT HAS BEEN QUITE THE CLOSE CALL FOR NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING
WITH COLDEST OF THE AIR RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. REPORTS OF SLEET AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW
MIXING IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER BEFORE PRECIP PULLED OUT
BUT BY AND LARGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...IT HAS BEEN A
RAIN EVENT. THIS IS SHOWN IN 00Z FFC SOUNDING WHICH CAME IN WITH A
VERY STRONG WARM NOSE AT 750 MB OF OVER 6C. THIS WENT BACK BELOW
FREEZING AT 890MB WHICH IS WHY WE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET
MIXING IN AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

REGARDLESS OF WHO SAW WHAT WITH THIS EVENT...ROADS LIKELY REMAIN
WET OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS TEMPS PLUNGE INTO THE MID 20S. WINDS
ARE HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS COMMON PLACE.
IMPRESSIVE 70KT AT 8K FT ON SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL STILL THERE
FOR CONTINUED SURFACE GUSTS WHICH SHOULD FURTHER AID IN DRYING
THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS TO MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE
OVERNIGHT AND SPS LOOKS GOOD TO KEEP IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
STILL DEALING WITH ONE FINAL ROUND OF -RA FOR ATL SO INCLUDED A
SHORT TERM TEMPO WITH THIS TAF SET. ALSO OF NOT IS THE IFR AT RYY
AND SURROUNDING SITES SO THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME IFR
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE 00Z ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE...WIND BECOMING THE BIG STORY WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KTS
AT TIMES. EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THESE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
CERTAINLY HAVE INCREASED THE GUST POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM.
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT AFT 16Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT AND MVFR DURATION.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  46  29  59 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         28  46  33  58 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     23  43  26  54 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    24  45  26  56 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        32  49  32  61 /  30   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     27  45  33  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           32  50  28  61 /  40   5   0   0
ROME            25  43  25  55 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  27  47  26  59 /  20   5   0   0
VIDALIA         42  51  33  61 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 060201
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
901 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...

IT HAS BEEN QUITE THE CLOSE CALL FOR NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING
WITH COLDEST OF THE AIR RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. REPORTS OF SLEET AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW
MIXING IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER BEFORE PRECIP PULLED OUT
BUT BY AND LARGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...IT HAS BEEN A
RAIN EVENT. THIS IS SHOWN IN 00Z FFC SOUNDING WHICH CAME IN WITH A
VERY STRONG WARM NOSE AT 750 MB OF OVER 6C. THIS WENT BACK BELOW
FREEZING AT 890MB WHICH IS WHY WE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET
MIXING IN AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

REGARDLESS OF WHO SAW WHAT WITH THIS EVENT...ROADS LIKELY REMAIN
WET OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS TEMPS PLUNGE INTO THE MID 20S. WINDS
ARE HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS COMMON PLACE.
IMPRESSIVE 70KT AT 8K FT ON SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL STILL THERE
FOR CONTINUED SURFACE GUSTS WHICH SHOULD FURTHER AID IN DRYING
THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS TO MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE
OVERNIGHT AND SPS LOOKS GOOD TO KEEP IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
STILL DEALING WITH ONE FINAL ROUND OF -RA FOR ATL SO INCLUDED A
SHORT TERM TEMPO WITH THIS TAF SET. ALSO OF NOT IS THE IFR AT RYY
AND SURROUNDING SITES SO THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME IFR
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE 00Z ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE...WIND BECOMING THE BIG STORY WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KTS
AT TIMES. EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THESE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
CERTAINLY HAVE INCREASED THE GUST POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM.
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT AFT 16Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT AND MVFR DURATION.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  46  29  59 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         28  46  33  58 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     23  43  26  54 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    24  45  26  56 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        32  49  32  61 /  30   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     27  45  33  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           32  50  28  61 /  40   5   0   0
ROME            25  43  25  55 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  27  47  26  59 /  20   5   0   0
VIDALIA         42  51  33  61 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 060201
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
901 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...

IT HAS BEEN QUITE THE CLOSE CALL FOR NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING
WITH COLDEST OF THE AIR RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. REPORTS OF SLEET AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW
MIXING IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER BEFORE PRECIP PULLED OUT
BUT BY AND LARGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...IT HAS BEEN A
RAIN EVENT. THIS IS SHOWN IN 00Z FFC SOUNDING WHICH CAME IN WITH A
VERY STRONG WARM NOSE AT 750 MB OF OVER 6C. THIS WENT BACK BELOW
FREEZING AT 890MB WHICH IS WHY WE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET
MIXING IN AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

REGARDLESS OF WHO SAW WHAT WITH THIS EVENT...ROADS LIKELY REMAIN
WET OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS TEMPS PLUNGE INTO THE MID 20S. WINDS
ARE HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS COMMON PLACE.
IMPRESSIVE 70KT AT 8K FT ON SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL STILL THERE
FOR CONTINUED SURFACE GUSTS WHICH SHOULD FURTHER AID IN DRYING
THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS TO MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE
OVERNIGHT AND SPS LOOKS GOOD TO KEEP IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
STILL DEALING WITH ONE FINAL ROUND OF -RA FOR ATL SO INCLUDED A
SHORT TERM TEMPO WITH THIS TAF SET. ALSO OF NOT IS THE IFR AT RYY
AND SURROUNDING SITES SO THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME IFR
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE 00Z ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE...WIND BECOMING THE BIG STORY WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KTS
AT TIMES. EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THESE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
CERTAINLY HAVE INCREASED THE GUST POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM.
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT AFT 16Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT AND MVFR DURATION.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  46  29  59 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         28  46  33  58 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     23  43  26  54 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    24  45  26  56 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        32  49  32  61 /  30   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     27  45  33  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           32  50  28  61 /  40   5   0   0
ROME            25  43  25  55 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  27  47  26  59 /  20   5   0   0
VIDALIA         42  51  33  61 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KCHS 060041
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
741 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THURSDAY EVENING...THE INITIAL COLD FROPA FOLLOWED BY RAIN HAD
PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT MARKED BY AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND
SHARPLY COLDER FEATURING TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S
WAS POISED TO ENTER NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
THIS MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL DRIVE DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH TIME TONIGHT. BY DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S/NEAR 40
WILL BE COMMON NORTH OF INTERSTATE 16...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SANTEE RIVER COULD APPROACH FREEZING.

CATEGORICAL POPS SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYERED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
A PLUME OF PWATS AROUND 1.50 INCHES WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE/DECREASING
COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE RAIN OVERNIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT...THERE IS
A LOW PROBABILITY THAT LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD BEGIN TO FREEZE ON
SOME ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND METAL OBJECTS ACROSS
INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR FREEZING
PRECIPITATION/ASSOCIATED IMPACTS REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WILL INCREASE
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KT RANGE...AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LINGER INTO MID
TO LATE MORNING. THIS COULD SPUR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL FACILITATE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE GA COASTAL ZONES AND IMMEDIATE SC COAST.
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES MINUS THE GA COASTAL AREAS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY TEMPS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
THE PROSPECTS FOR IMPROVEMENT REMAIN LIMITED FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PERSISTS BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THUS...MAINTAINED MVFR CEILINGS AT KCHS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
INDICATED A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS AT KSAV AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO RAPID DETERIORATION AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT USHERS AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AND QUICKLY INCREASING WINDS AS COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS. THE ONGOING GALE
WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AND REMAINS IN EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT AN OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH/SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JRL/SPR
MARINE...BSH/JRL/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 060041
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
741 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THURSDAY EVENING...THE INITIAL COLD FROPA FOLLOWED BY RAIN HAD
PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT MARKED BY AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND
SHARPLY COLDER FEATURING TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S
WAS POISED TO ENTER NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
THIS MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL DRIVE DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH TIME TONIGHT. BY DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S/NEAR 40
WILL BE COMMON NORTH OF INTERSTATE 16...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SANTEE RIVER COULD APPROACH FREEZING.

CATEGORICAL POPS SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYERED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
A PLUME OF PWATS AROUND 1.50 INCHES WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE/DECREASING
COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE RAIN OVERNIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT...THERE IS
A LOW PROBABILITY THAT LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD BEGIN TO FREEZE ON
SOME ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND METAL OBJECTS ACROSS
INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR FREEZING
PRECIPITATION/ASSOCIATED IMPACTS REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WILL INCREASE
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KT RANGE...AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LINGER INTO MID
TO LATE MORNING. THIS COULD SPUR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL FACILITATE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE GA COASTAL ZONES AND IMMEDIATE SC COAST.
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES MINUS THE GA COASTAL AREAS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY TEMPS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
THE PROSPECTS FOR IMPROVEMENT REMAIN LIMITED FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PERSISTS BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THUS...MAINTAINED MVFR CEILINGS AT KCHS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
INDICATED A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS AT KSAV AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO RAPID DETERIORATION AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT USHERS AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AND QUICKLY INCREASING WINDS AS COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS. THE ONGOING GALE
WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AND REMAINS IN EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT AN OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH/SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JRL/SPR
MARINE...BSH/JRL/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 060041
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
741 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THURSDAY EVENING...THE INITIAL COLD FROPA FOLLOWED BY RAIN HAD
PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT MARKED BY AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND
SHARPLY COLDER FEATURING TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S
WAS POISED TO ENTER NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
THIS MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL DRIVE DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH TIME TONIGHT. BY DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S/NEAR 40
WILL BE COMMON NORTH OF INTERSTATE 16...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SANTEE RIVER COULD APPROACH FREEZING.

CATEGORICAL POPS SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYERED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
A PLUME OF PWATS AROUND 1.50 INCHES WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE/DECREASING
COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE RAIN OVERNIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT...THERE IS
A LOW PROBABILITY THAT LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD BEGIN TO FREEZE ON
SOME ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND METAL OBJECTS ACROSS
INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR FREEZING
PRECIPITATION/ASSOCIATED IMPACTS REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WILL INCREASE
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KT RANGE...AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LINGER INTO MID
TO LATE MORNING. THIS COULD SPUR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL FACILITATE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE GA COASTAL ZONES AND IMMEDIATE SC COAST.
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES MINUS THE GA COASTAL AREAS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY TEMPS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
THE PROSPECTS FOR IMPROVEMENT REMAIN LIMITED FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PERSISTS BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THUS...MAINTAINED MVFR CEILINGS AT KCHS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
INDICATED A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS AT KSAV AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO RAPID DETERIORATION AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT USHERS AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AND QUICKLY INCREASING WINDS AS COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS. THE ONGOING GALE
WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AND REMAINS IN EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT AN OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH/SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JRL/SPR
MARINE...BSH/JRL/SPR




000
FXUS62 KFFC 060030
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
STILL DEALING WITH ONE FINAL ROUND OF -RA FOR ATL SO INCLUDED A
SHORT TERM TEMPO WITH THIS TAF SET. ALSO OF NOT IS THE IFR AT RYY
AND SURROUNDING SITES SO THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME IFR
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE 00Z ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE...WIND BECOMING THE BIG STORY WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KTS
AT TIMES. EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THESE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
CERTAINLY HAVE INCREASED THE GUST POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM.
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT AFT 16Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT AND MVFR DURATION.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  46  29  59 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         28  46  33  58 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     23  43  26  54 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    24  45  26  56 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        32  49  32  61 /  30   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     27  45  33  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           32  50  28  61 /  40   5   0   0
ROME            25  43  25  55 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  27  47  26  59 /  20   5   0   0
VIDALIA         42  51  33  61 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 060030
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
STILL DEALING WITH ONE FINAL ROUND OF -RA FOR ATL SO INCLUDED A
SHORT TERM TEMPO WITH THIS TAF SET. ALSO OF NOT IS THE IFR AT RYY
AND SURROUNDING SITES SO THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME IFR
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE 00Z ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE...WIND BECOMING THE BIG STORY WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KTS
AT TIMES. EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THESE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
CERTAINLY HAVE INCREASED THE GUST POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM.
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT AFT 16Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT AND MVFR DURATION.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  46  29  59 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         28  46  33  58 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     23  43  26  54 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    24  45  26  56 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        32  49  32  61 /  30   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     27  45  33  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           32  50  28  61 /  40   5   0   0
ROME            25  43  25  55 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  27  47  26  59 /  20   5   0   0
VIDALIA         42  51  33  61 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE



000
FXUS62 KFFC 060030
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
STILL DEALING WITH ONE FINAL ROUND OF -RA FOR ATL SO INCLUDED A
SHORT TERM TEMPO WITH THIS TAF SET. ALSO OF NOT IS THE IFR AT RYY
AND SURROUNDING SITES SO THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME IFR
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE 00Z ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE...WIND BECOMING THE BIG STORY WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KTS
AT TIMES. EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THESE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
CERTAINLY HAVE INCREASED THE GUST POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM.
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT AFT 16Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT AND MVFR DURATION.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  46  29  59 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         28  46  33  58 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     23  43  26  54 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    24  45  26  56 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        32  49  32  61 /  30   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     27  45  33  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           32  50  28  61 /  40   5   0   0
ROME            25  43  25  55 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  27  47  26  59 /  20   5   0   0
VIDALIA         42  51  33  61 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE



000
FXUS62 KFFC 060030
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
STILL DEALING WITH ONE FINAL ROUND OF -RA FOR ATL SO INCLUDED A
SHORT TERM TEMPO WITH THIS TAF SET. ALSO OF NOT IS THE IFR AT RYY
AND SURROUNDING SITES SO THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME IFR
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE 00Z ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE...WIND BECOMING THE BIG STORY WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KTS
AT TIMES. EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THESE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
CERTAINLY HAVE INCREASED THE GUST POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM.
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT AFT 16Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT AND MVFR DURATION.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  46  29  59 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         28  46  33  58 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     23  43  26  54 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    24  45  26  56 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        32  49  32  61 /  30   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     27  45  33  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           32  50  28  61 /  40   5   0   0
ROME            25  43  25  55 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  27  47  26  59 /  20   5   0   0
VIDALIA         42  51  33  61 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE



000
FXUS62 KFFC 060030
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
STILL DEALING WITH ONE FINAL ROUND OF -RA FOR ATL SO INCLUDED A
SHORT TERM TEMPO WITH THIS TAF SET. ALSO OF NOT IS THE IFR AT RYY
AND SURROUNDING SITES SO THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME IFR
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE 00Z ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE...WIND BECOMING THE BIG STORY WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KTS
AT TIMES. EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THESE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
CERTAINLY HAVE INCREASED THE GUST POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM.
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT AFT 16Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT AND MVFR DURATION.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  46  29  59 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         28  46  33  58 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     23  43  26  54 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    24  45  26  56 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        32  49  32  61 /  30   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     27  45  33  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           32  50  28  61 /  40   5   0   0
ROME            25  43  25  55 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  27  47  26  59 /  20   5   0   0
VIDALIA         42  51  33  61 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE



000
FXUS62 KFFC 060030
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
STILL DEALING WITH ONE FINAL ROUND OF -RA FOR ATL SO INCLUDED A
SHORT TERM TEMPO WITH THIS TAF SET. ALSO OF NOT IS THE IFR AT RYY
AND SURROUNDING SITES SO THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME IFR
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE 00Z ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE...WIND BECOMING THE BIG STORY WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KTS
AT TIMES. EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THESE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
CERTAINLY HAVE INCREASED THE GUST POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM.
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT AFT 16Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT AND MVFR DURATION.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  46  29  59 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         28  46  33  58 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     23  43  26  54 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    24  45  26  56 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        32  49  32  61 /  30   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     27  45  33  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           32  50  28  61 /  40   5   0   0
ROME            25  43  25  55 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  27  47  26  59 /  20   5   0   0
VIDALIA         42  51  33  61 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE



000
FXUS62 KCAE 052347
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
647 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. RADAR TRENDS
SUPPORT MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY 02Z
WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE REMAINING THROUGH AROUND 07 TO 09Z.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED DRASTICALLY AND QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT LEAVING A SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME- HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING.  THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE COAST
EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY...AND COLD.  THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OF THE THE WEST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE HIGH WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY SUNDAY.
FORECAST IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COLDEST DAY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
ARCTIC AIR TRIES TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. SOME MODIFICATION MAY
BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN BY SUNDAY...READING
WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REENTER THE
REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM WITH POPS.
HOWEVER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...ALONG WITH
THE ADDED MOISTURE...CAN NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANGE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  GENERALLY KEPT A
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDGE FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS AT 00Z WITH NORTHERLY WIND AND
IFR CLOUDS AT CAE/CUB. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THIS
EVENING REACHING OGB BY 01Z AND AGS/DNL BY 04Z...WITH CIGS BECOMING
MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS SHIFTING NORTHERLY. BUFKIT INDICATING A PERIOD
OF IFR CIGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH 05Z.

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL BE EAST OF THE TAFS SITES AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING.

ALL OF THE MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 06Z WITH
CLOUD BASES ABOVE 3000 FEET. OUR FORECAST LOOKS MORE LIKE THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE MVFR CIGS LINGERING THROUGH
14Z-16Z.  VFR FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUST TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 052347
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
647 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. RADAR TRENDS
SUPPORT MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY 02Z
WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE REMAINING THROUGH AROUND 07 TO 09Z.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED DRASTICALLY AND QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT LEAVING A SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME- HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING.  THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE COAST
EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY...AND COLD.  THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OF THE THE WEST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE HIGH WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY SUNDAY.
FORECAST IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COLDEST DAY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
ARCTIC AIR TRIES TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. SOME MODIFICATION MAY
BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN BY SUNDAY...READING
WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REENTER THE
REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM WITH POPS.
HOWEVER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...ALONG WITH
THE ADDED MOISTURE...CAN NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANGE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  GENERALLY KEPT A
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDGE FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS AT 00Z WITH NORTHERLY WIND AND
IFR CLOUDS AT CAE/CUB. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THIS
EVENING REACHING OGB BY 01Z AND AGS/DNL BY 04Z...WITH CIGS BECOMING
MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS SHIFTING NORTHERLY. BUFKIT INDICATING A PERIOD
OF IFR CIGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH 05Z.

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL BE EAST OF THE TAFS SITES AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING.

ALL OF THE MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 06Z WITH
CLOUD BASES ABOVE 3000 FEET. OUR FORECAST LOOKS MORE LIKE THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE MVFR CIGS LINGERING THROUGH
14Z-16Z.  VFR FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUST TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 052347
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
647 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. RADAR TRENDS
SUPPORT MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY 02Z
WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE REMAINING THROUGH AROUND 07 TO 09Z.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED DRASTICALLY AND QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT LEAVING A SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME- HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING.  THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE COAST
EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY...AND COLD.  THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OF THE THE WEST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE HIGH WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY SUNDAY.
FORECAST IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COLDEST DAY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
ARCTIC AIR TRIES TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. SOME MODIFICATION MAY
BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN BY SUNDAY...READING
WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REENTER THE
REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM WITH POPS.
HOWEVER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...ALONG WITH
THE ADDED MOISTURE...CAN NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANGE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  GENERALLY KEPT A
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDGE FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS AT 00Z WITH NORTHERLY WIND AND
IFR CLOUDS AT CAE/CUB. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THIS
EVENING REACHING OGB BY 01Z AND AGS/DNL BY 04Z...WITH CIGS BECOMING
MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS SHIFTING NORTHERLY. BUFKIT INDICATING A PERIOD
OF IFR CIGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH 05Z.

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL BE EAST OF THE TAFS SITES AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING.

ALL OF THE MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 06Z WITH
CLOUD BASES ABOVE 3000 FEET. OUR FORECAST LOOKS MORE LIKE THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE MVFR CIGS LINGERING THROUGH
14Z-16Z.  VFR FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUST TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 052347
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
647 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. RADAR TRENDS
SUPPORT MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY 02Z
WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE REMAINING THROUGH AROUND 07 TO 09Z.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED DRASTICALLY AND QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT LEAVING A SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME- HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING.  THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE COAST
EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY...AND COLD.  THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OF THE THE WEST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE HIGH WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY SUNDAY.
FORECAST IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COLDEST DAY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
ARCTIC AIR TRIES TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. SOME MODIFICATION MAY
BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN BY SUNDAY...READING
WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REENTER THE
REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM WITH POPS.
HOWEVER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...ALONG WITH
THE ADDED MOISTURE...CAN NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANGE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  GENERALLY KEPT A
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDGE FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS AT 00Z WITH NORTHERLY WIND AND
IFR CLOUDS AT CAE/CUB. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THIS
EVENING REACHING OGB BY 01Z AND AGS/DNL BY 04Z...WITH CIGS BECOMING
MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS SHIFTING NORTHERLY. BUFKIT INDICATING A PERIOD
OF IFR CIGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH 05Z.

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL BE EAST OF THE TAFS SITES AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING.

ALL OF THE MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 06Z WITH
CLOUD BASES ABOVE 3000 FEET. OUR FORECAST LOOKS MORE LIKE THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE MVFR CIGS LINGERING THROUGH
14Z-16Z.  VFR FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUST TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCHS 052153
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
453 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...LINE OF SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOLLOWING THE TIMING OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE. NO THUNDER IS
EXPECTED AND A PERUSAL OF RADAR DATA SUPPORTS THIS AS THE SHOWERS
ARE SHALLOW. ALSO...SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER AROUND 700 MB THAT
IS INHIBITING CONVECTION FROM GETTING TOO DEEP. SOME ENHANCED
GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM COLUMBIA EAST TO FLORENCE...AND
THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE TAPPING INTO BETTER LOW LEVEL JETTING. WE
MAY SEE SOME GUSTS INTO THE 35-40 MPH RANGE AS THE SHOWERS PUSH
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP QUICKLY.

TONIGHT...THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING...REACHING THE
ALTAMAHA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...DECREASING FROM THE WEST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WE WILL THEN LIKELY SEE AREAS OF DRIZZLE
TAKE HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. POPS ARE CLOSELY TIED TO THE
PRESENT PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE REFINEMENTS
THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAPTURE ONGOING TRENDS. COLD AIR WILL RUSH
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADILY FALL. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY REGION WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE 34-35 DEGREE RANGE...MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE MOULTRIE IN AND
AROUND THE SAINT STEPHEN AREA. GIVEN THESE TEMPERATURES AND THE
WARMTH FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE REMAINS ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE AROUND DAY BREAK. IF IT WERE TO
OCCUR...THERE WILL BE NO SURFACE ACCRETION AND THE HWO WORDING
WILL BE TRIMMED BACK TO INCLUDING ONLY INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH...TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH NEAR THE ALTAMAHA.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KT
RANGE...FIRST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND THEN OUT OF THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LINGER INTO MID
TO LATE MORNING. THIS COULD SPUR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL FACILITATE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE GA COASTAL ZONES AND IMMEDIATE SC COAST.
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES MINUS THE GA COASTAL AREAS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY TEMPS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT REACHES THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING...THEN IFR
LATE. PREVAILING IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNRISE
BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY PM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE AFTERNOON UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED FOR THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS. ANY LINGERING PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS SHOWERS MOVE IN AND THE COLD FRONT
STARTS TO STIR THINGS UP OVER THE COOL SHELF WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY.
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE WATERS AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS. THE ONGOING GALE
WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AND REMAINS IN EFFECT. GIVEN THE GUSTY
CONDITIONS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STARTS NOW AND RUNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN
SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT AN OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...BSH/JRL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 052153
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
453 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...LINE OF SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOLLOWING THE TIMING OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE. NO THUNDER IS
EXPECTED AND A PERUSAL OF RADAR DATA SUPPORTS THIS AS THE SHOWERS
ARE SHALLOW. ALSO...SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER AROUND 700 MB THAT
IS INHIBITING CONVECTION FROM GETTING TOO DEEP. SOME ENHANCED
GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM COLUMBIA EAST TO FLORENCE...AND
THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE TAPPING INTO BETTER LOW LEVEL JETTING. WE
MAY SEE SOME GUSTS INTO THE 35-40 MPH RANGE AS THE SHOWERS PUSH
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP QUICKLY.

TONIGHT...THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING...REACHING THE
ALTAMAHA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...DECREASING FROM THE WEST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WE WILL THEN LIKELY SEE AREAS OF DRIZZLE
TAKE HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. POPS ARE CLOSELY TIED TO THE
PRESENT PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE REFINEMENTS
THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAPTURE ONGOING TRENDS. COLD AIR WILL RUSH
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADILY FALL. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY REGION WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE 34-35 DEGREE RANGE...MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE MOULTRIE IN AND
AROUND THE SAINT STEPHEN AREA. GIVEN THESE TEMPERATURES AND THE
WARMTH FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE REMAINS ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE AROUND DAY BREAK. IF IT WERE TO
OCCUR...THERE WILL BE NO SURFACE ACCRETION AND THE HWO WORDING
WILL BE TRIMMED BACK TO INCLUDING ONLY INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH...TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH NEAR THE ALTAMAHA.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KT
RANGE...FIRST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND THEN OUT OF THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LINGER INTO MID
TO LATE MORNING. THIS COULD SPUR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL FACILITATE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE GA COASTAL ZONES AND IMMEDIATE SC COAST.
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES MINUS THE GA COASTAL AREAS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY TEMPS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT REACHES THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING...THEN IFR
LATE. PREVAILING IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNRISE
BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY PM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE AFTERNOON UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED FOR THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS. ANY LINGERING PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS SHOWERS MOVE IN AND THE COLD FRONT
STARTS TO STIR THINGS UP OVER THE COOL SHELF WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY.
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE WATERS AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS. THE ONGOING GALE
WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AND REMAINS IN EFFECT. GIVEN THE GUSTY
CONDITIONS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STARTS NOW AND RUNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN
SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT AN OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...BSH/JRL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 052153
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
453 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...LINE OF SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOLLOWING THE TIMING OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE. NO THUNDER IS
EXPECTED AND A PERUSAL OF RADAR DATA SUPPORTS THIS AS THE SHOWERS
ARE SHALLOW. ALSO...SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER AROUND 700 MB THAT
IS INHIBITING CONVECTION FROM GETTING TOO DEEP. SOME ENHANCED
GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM COLUMBIA EAST TO FLORENCE...AND
THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE TAPPING INTO BETTER LOW LEVEL JETTING. WE
MAY SEE SOME GUSTS INTO THE 35-40 MPH RANGE AS THE SHOWERS PUSH
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP QUICKLY.

TONIGHT...THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING...REACHING THE
ALTAMAHA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...DECREASING FROM THE WEST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WE WILL THEN LIKELY SEE AREAS OF DRIZZLE
TAKE HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. POPS ARE CLOSELY TIED TO THE
PRESENT PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE REFINEMENTS
THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAPTURE ONGOING TRENDS. COLD AIR WILL RUSH
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADILY FALL. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY REGION WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE 34-35 DEGREE RANGE...MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE MOULTRIE IN AND
AROUND THE SAINT STEPHEN AREA. GIVEN THESE TEMPERATURES AND THE
WARMTH FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE REMAINS ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE AROUND DAY BREAK. IF IT WERE TO
OCCUR...THERE WILL BE NO SURFACE ACCRETION AND THE HWO WORDING
WILL BE TRIMMED BACK TO INCLUDING ONLY INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH...TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH NEAR THE ALTAMAHA.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KT
RANGE...FIRST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND THEN OUT OF THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LINGER INTO MID
TO LATE MORNING. THIS COULD SPUR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL FACILITATE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE GA COASTAL ZONES AND IMMEDIATE SC COAST.
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES MINUS THE GA COASTAL AREAS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY TEMPS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT REACHES THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING...THEN IFR
LATE. PREVAILING IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNRISE
BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY PM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE AFTERNOON UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED FOR THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS. ANY LINGERING PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS SHOWERS MOVE IN AND THE COLD FRONT
STARTS TO STIR THINGS UP OVER THE COOL SHELF WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY.
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE WATERS AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS. THE ONGOING GALE
WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AND REMAINS IN EFFECT. GIVEN THE GUSTY
CONDITIONS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STARTS NOW AND RUNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN
SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT AN OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...BSH/JRL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 052153
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
453 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...LINE OF SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOLLOWING THE TIMING OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE. NO THUNDER IS
EXPECTED AND A PERUSAL OF RADAR DATA SUPPORTS THIS AS THE SHOWERS
ARE SHALLOW. ALSO...SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER AROUND 700 MB THAT
IS INHIBITING CONVECTION FROM GETTING TOO DEEP. SOME ENHANCED
GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM COLUMBIA EAST TO FLORENCE...AND
THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE TAPPING INTO BETTER LOW LEVEL JETTING. WE
MAY SEE SOME GUSTS INTO THE 35-40 MPH RANGE AS THE SHOWERS PUSH
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP QUICKLY.

TONIGHT...THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING...REACHING THE
ALTAMAHA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...DECREASING FROM THE WEST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WE WILL THEN LIKELY SEE AREAS OF DRIZZLE
TAKE HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. POPS ARE CLOSELY TIED TO THE
PRESENT PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE REFINEMENTS
THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAPTURE ONGOING TRENDS. COLD AIR WILL RUSH
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADILY FALL. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY REGION WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE 34-35 DEGREE RANGE...MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE MOULTRIE IN AND
AROUND THE SAINT STEPHEN AREA. GIVEN THESE TEMPERATURES AND THE
WARMTH FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE REMAINS ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE AROUND DAY BREAK. IF IT WERE TO
OCCUR...THERE WILL BE NO SURFACE ACCRETION AND THE HWO WORDING
WILL BE TRIMMED BACK TO INCLUDING ONLY INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH...TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH NEAR THE ALTAMAHA.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KT
RANGE...FIRST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND THEN OUT OF THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LINGER INTO MID
TO LATE MORNING. THIS COULD SPUR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL FACILITATE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE GA COASTAL ZONES AND IMMEDIATE SC COAST.
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES MINUS THE GA COASTAL AREAS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY TEMPS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT REACHES THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING...THEN IFR
LATE. PREVAILING IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNRISE
BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY PM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE AFTERNOON UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED FOR THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS. ANY LINGERING PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS SHOWERS MOVE IN AND THE COLD FRONT
STARTS TO STIR THINGS UP OVER THE COOL SHELF WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY.
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE WATERS AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS. THE ONGOING GALE
WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AND REMAINS IN EFFECT. GIVEN THE GUSTY
CONDITIONS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STARTS NOW AND RUNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN
SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT AN OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...BSH/JRL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 052153
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
453 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...LINE OF SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOLLOWING THE TIMING OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE. NO THUNDER IS
EXPECTED AND A PERUSAL OF RADAR DATA SUPPORTS THIS AS THE SHOWERS
ARE SHALLOW. ALSO...SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER AROUND 700 MB THAT
IS INHIBITING CONVECTION FROM GETTING TOO DEEP. SOME ENHANCED
GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM COLUMBIA EAST TO FLORENCE...AND
THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE TAPPING INTO BETTER LOW LEVEL JETTING. WE
MAY SEE SOME GUSTS INTO THE 35-40 MPH RANGE AS THE SHOWERS PUSH
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP QUICKLY.

TONIGHT...THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING...REACHING THE
ALTAMAHA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...DECREASING FROM THE WEST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WE WILL THEN LIKELY SEE AREAS OF DRIZZLE
TAKE HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. POPS ARE CLOSELY TIED TO THE
PRESENT PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE REFINEMENTS
THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAPTURE ONGOING TRENDS. COLD AIR WILL RUSH
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADILY FALL. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY REGION WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE 34-35 DEGREE RANGE...MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE MOULTRIE IN AND
AROUND THE SAINT STEPHEN AREA. GIVEN THESE TEMPERATURES AND THE
WARMTH FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE REMAINS ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE AROUND DAY BREAK. IF IT WERE TO
OCCUR...THERE WILL BE NO SURFACE ACCRETION AND THE HWO WORDING
WILL BE TRIMMED BACK TO INCLUDING ONLY INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH...TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH NEAR THE ALTAMAHA.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KT
RANGE...FIRST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND THEN OUT OF THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LINGER INTO MID
TO LATE MORNING. THIS COULD SPUR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL FACILITATE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE GA COASTAL ZONES AND IMMEDIATE SC COAST.
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES MINUS THE GA COASTAL AREAS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY TEMPS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT REACHES THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING...THEN IFR
LATE. PREVAILING IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNRISE
BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY PM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE AFTERNOON UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED FOR THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS. ANY LINGERING PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS SHOWERS MOVE IN AND THE COLD FRONT
STARTS TO STIR THINGS UP OVER THE COOL SHELF WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY.
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE WATERS AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS. THE ONGOING GALE
WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AND REMAINS IN EFFECT. GIVEN THE GUSTY
CONDITIONS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STARTS NOW AND RUNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN
SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT AN OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...BSH/JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 052153
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
453 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...LINE OF SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOLLOWING THE TIMING OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE. NO THUNDER IS
EXPECTED AND A PERUSAL OF RADAR DATA SUPPORTS THIS AS THE SHOWERS
ARE SHALLOW. ALSO...SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER AROUND 700 MB THAT
IS INHIBITING CONVECTION FROM GETTING TOO DEEP. SOME ENHANCED
GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM COLUMBIA EAST TO FLORENCE...AND
THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE TAPPING INTO BETTER LOW LEVEL JETTING. WE
MAY SEE SOME GUSTS INTO THE 35-40 MPH RANGE AS THE SHOWERS PUSH
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP QUICKLY.

TONIGHT...THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING...REACHING THE
ALTAMAHA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...DECREASING FROM THE WEST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WE WILL THEN LIKELY SEE AREAS OF DRIZZLE
TAKE HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. POPS ARE CLOSELY TIED TO THE
PRESENT PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE REFINEMENTS
THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAPTURE ONGOING TRENDS. COLD AIR WILL RUSH
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADILY FALL. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY REGION WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE 34-35 DEGREE RANGE...MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE MOULTRIE IN AND
AROUND THE SAINT STEPHEN AREA. GIVEN THESE TEMPERATURES AND THE
WARMTH FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE REMAINS ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE AROUND DAY BREAK. IF IT WERE TO
OCCUR...THERE WILL BE NO SURFACE ACCRETION AND THE HWO WORDING
WILL BE TRIMMED BACK TO INCLUDING ONLY INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH...TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH NEAR THE ALTAMAHA.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KT
RANGE...FIRST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND THEN OUT OF THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LINGER INTO MID
TO LATE MORNING. THIS COULD SPUR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL FACILITATE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE GA COASTAL ZONES AND IMMEDIATE SC COAST.
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES MINUS THE GA COASTAL AREAS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY TEMPS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT REACHES THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING...THEN IFR
LATE. PREVAILING IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNRISE
BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY PM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE AFTERNOON UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED FOR THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS. ANY LINGERING PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS SHOWERS MOVE IN AND THE COLD FRONT
STARTS TO STIR THINGS UP OVER THE COOL SHELF WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY.
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE WATERS AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS. THE ONGOING GALE
WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AND REMAINS IN EFFECT. GIVEN THE GUSTY
CONDITIONS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STARTS NOW AND RUNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN
SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT AN OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...BSH/JRL



000
FXUS62 KCAE 052148
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
448 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA BY TONIGHT. THE MAIN LINE OF STRONG WINDS AND SHOWERS HAS
SHIFTED TOWARD THE COAST. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED DRASTICALLY AND QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
CHESTERFIELD DROPPED 28 DEGREES IN ONE HOUR BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND SREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW FREEZING. BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL. GOOD COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING.  THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE COAST
EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY...AND COLD.  THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OF THE THE WEST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE HIGH WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY SUNDAY.
FORECAST IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COLDEST DAY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
ARCTIC AIR TRIES TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. SOME MODIFICATION MAY
BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN BY SUNDAY...READING
WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REENTER THE
REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM WITH POPS.
HOWEVER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...ALONG WITH
THE ADDED MOISTURE...CAN NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANGE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  GENERALLY KEPT A
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST NORTH OF MYR A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE COASTAL
PLAINS. WILL SEE A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS WITH A SHOWERS AFFECTING
AGS/DNL/OGB.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE THRU CAE/CUB
BY 23Z...REACHING OGB BY 02Z AND AGS/DNL BY 04Z. WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND THIS SECOND
FRONT WITH CIGS BECOMING MVFR OR LOWER.

THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH VFR CLOUD
BASES BY 06/12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 052148
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
448 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA BY TONIGHT. THE MAIN LINE OF STRONG WINDS AND SHOWERS HAS
SHIFTED TOWARD THE COAST. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED DRASTICALLY AND QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
CHESTERFIELD DROPPED 28 DEGREES IN ONE HOUR BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND SREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW FREEZING. BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL. GOOD COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING.  THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE COAST
EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY...AND COLD.  THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OF THE THE WEST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE HIGH WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY SUNDAY.
FORECAST IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COLDEST DAY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
ARCTIC AIR TRIES TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. SOME MODIFICATION MAY
BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN BY SUNDAY...READING
WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REENTER THE
REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM WITH POPS.
HOWEVER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...ALONG WITH
THE ADDED MOISTURE...CAN NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANGE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  GENERALLY KEPT A
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST NORTH OF MYR A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE COASTAL
PLAINS. WILL SEE A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS WITH A SHOWERS AFFECTING
AGS/DNL/OGB.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE THRU CAE/CUB
BY 23Z...REACHING OGB BY 02Z AND AGS/DNL BY 04Z. WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND THIS SECOND
FRONT WITH CIGS BECOMING MVFR OR LOWER.

THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH VFR CLOUD
BASES BY 06/12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 052110
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
410 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...LINE OF SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOLLOWING THE TIMING OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE. NO THUNDER IS
EXPECTED AND A PERUSAL OF RADAR DATA SUPPORTS THIS AS THE SHOWERS
ARE SHALLOW. ALSO...SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER AROUND 700 MB THAT
IS INHIBITING CONVECTION FROM GETTING TOO DEEP. SOME ENHANCED
GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM COLUMBIA EAST TO FLORENCE...AND
THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE TAPPING INTO BETTER LOW LEVEL JETTING. WE
MAY SEE SOME GUSTS INTO THE 35-40 MPH RANGE AS THE SHOWERS PUSH
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP QUICKLY.

TONIGHT...THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING...REACHING THE
ALTAMAHA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...DECREASING FROM THE WEST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WE WILL THEN LIKELY SEE AREAS OF DRIZZLE
TAKE HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. POPS ARE CLOSELY TIED TO THE
PRESENT PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE REFINEMENTS
THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAPTURE ONGOING TRENDS. COLD AIR WILL RUSH
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADILY FALL. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY REGION WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE 34-35 DEGREE RANGE...MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE MOULTRIE IN AND
AROUND THE SAINT STEPHEN AREA. GIVEN THESE TEMPERATURES AND THE
WARMTH FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE REMAINS ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE AROUND DAY BREAK. IF IT WERE TO
OCCUR...THERE WILL BE NO SURFACE ACCRETION AND THE HWO WORDING
WILL BE TRIMMED BACK TO INCLUDING ONLY INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH...TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH NEAR THE ALTAMAHA.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KT
RANGE...FIRST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND THEN OUT OF THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LINGER INTO MID
TO LATE MORNING. THIS COULD SPUR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL FACILITATE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE GA COASTAL ZONES AND IMMEDIATE SC COAST.
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES MINUS THE GA COASTAL AREAS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY TEMPS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT REACHES THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING...THEN IFR
LATE. PREVAILING IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNRISE
BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY PM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SEA FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE
LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
THEN OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY. COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE WATERS AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS. THE ONGOING
GALE WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AND REMAINS IN EFFECT. GIVEN
THE GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STARTS NOW AND RUNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT AN OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...BSH/JRL
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 052110
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
410 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...LINE OF SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOLLOWING THE TIMING OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE. NO THUNDER IS
EXPECTED AND A PERUSAL OF RADAR DATA SUPPORTS THIS AS THE SHOWERS
ARE SHALLOW. ALSO...SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER AROUND 700 MB THAT
IS INHIBITING CONVECTION FROM GETTING TOO DEEP. SOME ENHANCED
GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM COLUMBIA EAST TO FLORENCE...AND
THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE TAPPING INTO BETTER LOW LEVEL JETTING. WE
MAY SEE SOME GUSTS INTO THE 35-40 MPH RANGE AS THE SHOWERS PUSH
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP QUICKLY.

TONIGHT...THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING...REACHING THE
ALTAMAHA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...DECREASING FROM THE WEST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WE WILL THEN LIKELY SEE AREAS OF DRIZZLE
TAKE HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. POPS ARE CLOSELY TIED TO THE
PRESENT PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE REFINEMENTS
THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAPTURE ONGOING TRENDS. COLD AIR WILL RUSH
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADILY FALL. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY REGION WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE 34-35 DEGREE RANGE...MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE MOULTRIE IN AND
AROUND THE SAINT STEPHEN AREA. GIVEN THESE TEMPERATURES AND THE
WARMTH FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE REMAINS ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE AROUND DAY BREAK. IF IT WERE TO
OCCUR...THERE WILL BE NO SURFACE ACCRETION AND THE HWO WORDING
WILL BE TRIMMED BACK TO INCLUDING ONLY INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH...TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH NEAR THE ALTAMAHA.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KT
RANGE...FIRST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND THEN OUT OF THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LINGER INTO MID
TO LATE MORNING. THIS COULD SPUR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL FACILITATE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE GA COASTAL ZONES AND IMMEDIATE SC COAST.
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES MINUS THE GA COASTAL AREAS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY TEMPS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT REACHES THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING...THEN IFR
LATE. PREVAILING IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNRISE
BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY PM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SEA FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE
LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
THEN OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY. COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE WATERS AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS. THE ONGOING
GALE WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AND REMAINS IN EFFECT. GIVEN
THE GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STARTS NOW AND RUNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT AN OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...BSH/JRL
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 052110
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
410 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...LINE OF SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOLLOWING THE TIMING OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE. NO THUNDER IS
EXPECTED AND A PERUSAL OF RADAR DATA SUPPORTS THIS AS THE SHOWERS
ARE SHALLOW. ALSO...SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER AROUND 700 MB THAT
IS INHIBITING CONVECTION FROM GETTING TOO DEEP. SOME ENHANCED
GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM COLUMBIA EAST TO FLORENCE...AND
THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE TAPPING INTO BETTER LOW LEVEL JETTING. WE
MAY SEE SOME GUSTS INTO THE 35-40 MPH RANGE AS THE SHOWERS PUSH
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP QUICKLY.

TONIGHT...THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING...REACHING THE
ALTAMAHA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...DECREASING FROM THE WEST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WE WILL THEN LIKELY SEE AREAS OF DRIZZLE
TAKE HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. POPS ARE CLOSELY TIED TO THE
PRESENT PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE REFINEMENTS
THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAPTURE ONGOING TRENDS. COLD AIR WILL RUSH
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADILY FALL. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY REGION WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE 34-35 DEGREE RANGE...MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE MOULTRIE IN AND
AROUND THE SAINT STEPHEN AREA. GIVEN THESE TEMPERATURES AND THE
WARMTH FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE REMAINS ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE AROUND DAY BREAK. IF IT WERE TO
OCCUR...THERE WILL BE NO SURFACE ACCRETION AND THE HWO WORDING
WILL BE TRIMMED BACK TO INCLUDING ONLY INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH...TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH NEAR THE ALTAMAHA.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KT
RANGE...FIRST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND THEN OUT OF THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LINGER INTO MID
TO LATE MORNING. THIS COULD SPUR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL FACILITATE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE GA COASTAL ZONES AND IMMEDIATE SC COAST.
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES MINUS THE GA COASTAL AREAS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY TEMPS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT REACHES THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING...THEN IFR
LATE. PREVAILING IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNRISE
BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY PM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SEA FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE
LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
THEN OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY. COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE WATERS AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS. THE ONGOING
GALE WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AND REMAINS IN EFFECT. GIVEN
THE GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STARTS NOW AND RUNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT AN OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...BSH/JRL
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 052110
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
410 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT THEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...LINE OF SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOLLOWING THE TIMING OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE. NO THUNDER IS
EXPECTED AND A PERUSAL OF RADAR DATA SUPPORTS THIS AS THE SHOWERS
ARE SHALLOW. ALSO...SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER AROUND 700 MB THAT
IS INHIBITING CONVECTION FROM GETTING TOO DEEP. SOME ENHANCED
GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM COLUMBIA EAST TO FLORENCE...AND
THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE TAPPING INTO BETTER LOW LEVEL JETTING. WE
MAY SEE SOME GUSTS INTO THE 35-40 MPH RANGE AS THE SHOWERS PUSH
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP QUICKLY.

TONIGHT...THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND THE MAIN COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING...REACHING THE
ALTAMAHA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...DECREASING FROM THE WEST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WE WILL THEN LIKELY SEE AREAS OF DRIZZLE
TAKE HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. POPS ARE CLOSELY TIED TO THE
PRESENT PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE REFINEMENTS
THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAPTURE ONGOING TRENDS. COLD AIR WILL RUSH
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADILY FALL. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY REGION WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE 34-35 DEGREE RANGE...MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE MOULTRIE IN AND
AROUND THE SAINT STEPHEN AREA. GIVEN THESE TEMPERATURES AND THE
WARMTH FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE REMAINS ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE AROUND DAY BREAK. IF IT WERE TO
OCCUR...THERE WILL BE NO SURFACE ACCRETION AND THE HWO WORDING
WILL BE TRIMMED BACK TO INCLUDING ONLY INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH...TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH NEAR THE ALTAMAHA.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KT
RANGE...FIRST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND THEN OUT OF THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LINGER INTO MID
TO LATE MORNING. THIS COULD SPUR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL FACILITATE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE GA COASTAL ZONES AND IMMEDIATE SC COAST.
WE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES MINUS THE GA COASTAL AREAS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY TEMPS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT REACHES THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING...THEN IFR
LATE. PREVAILING IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNRISE
BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY PM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SEA FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE
LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
THEN OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY. COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE WATERS AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS. THE ONGOING
GALE WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AND REMAINS IN EFFECT. GIVEN
THE GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STARTS NOW AND RUNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT AN OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...BSH/JRL
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 051952
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
252 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TWILL DROP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. 88D SHOWS A
LINE OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. EXPECT
THE TREND OF TEMPERATURES FALLING BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES BEHIND
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. VWP SHOWS 30 KTS AT 1K FT
AND 45 KTS AT 3K FT. WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL LAKES...WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...SHOULD LIMIT MIXING...BUT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS STILL SUPPORT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO PICK UP THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT HELPING TO KEEP WINDS UP OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARMER LAKES.

HERE ARE A FEW WIND GUSTS AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHED THROUGH THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 230 PM:

ATOP WILLIAMS BRICE (RCWINDS).68 MPH
COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT........51 MPH
AIKEN COUNTY AIRPORT..........51 MPH
LAKE THURMOND DAM.............48 MPH
GILLS CREEK...................48 MPH
AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD............46 MPH
MCENTIRE ANG..................45 MPH
LAKE MURRAY DAM (RCWINDS).....44 MPH
IRMO (RCWINDS)................43 MPH
ST. ANDREWS (RCWINDS).........42 MPH
LANDFILL (RCWIDNS)............42 MPH
FLOTILLA ISLAND LAKE MURRAY...40 MPH
COLUMBIA HAMILTON OWENS.......40 MPH
CHREAW MUNICIPAL AIRPORT......38 MPH
TOWERS LAKE MURRAY............37 MPH
LAKE WATEREE..................37 MPH


THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL.
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUST TO 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING.  THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE COAST
EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY...AND COLD.  THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OF THE THE WEST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE HIGH WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY SUNDAY.
FORECAST IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COLDEST DAY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
ARCTIC AIR TRIES TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. SOME MODIFICATION MAY
BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN BY SUNDAY...READING
WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REENTER THE
REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM WITH POPS.
HOWEVER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...ALONG WITH
THE ADDED MOISTURE...CAN NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANGE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  GENERALLY KEPT A
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BECOME WESTERLY
BEHIND THE COAS COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING WITH
INITIAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN STRONG WINDS FROM THE WEST THEN
NORTHWEST/NORTH. OBSERVATIONS HAVE SUPPORTED WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO
50 MPH ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BULK OF
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/ERN TAF SITES 20Z- 23Z
TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE
19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN
NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE EVENING WITH GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY 04Z FRIDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY WITH BKN VFR CLOUDS BECOMING SCATTERED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 051952
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
252 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TWILL DROP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. 88D SHOWS A
LINE OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. EXPECT
THE TREND OF TEMPERATURES FALLING BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES BEHIND
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. VWP SHOWS 30 KTS AT 1K FT
AND 45 KTS AT 3K FT. WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL LAKES...WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...SHOULD LIMIT MIXING...BUT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS STILL SUPPORT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO PICK UP THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT HELPING TO KEEP WINDS UP OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARMER LAKES.

HERE ARE A FEW WIND GUSTS AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHED THROUGH THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 230 PM:

ATOP WILLIAMS BRICE (RCWINDS).68 MPH
COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT........51 MPH
AIKEN COUNTY AIRPORT..........51 MPH
LAKE THURMOND DAM.............48 MPH
GILLS CREEK...................48 MPH
AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD............46 MPH
MCENTIRE ANG..................45 MPH
LAKE MURRAY DAM (RCWINDS).....44 MPH
IRMO (RCWINDS)................43 MPH
ST. ANDREWS (RCWINDS).........42 MPH
LANDFILL (RCWIDNS)............42 MPH
FLOTILLA ISLAND LAKE MURRAY...40 MPH
COLUMBIA HAMILTON OWENS.......40 MPH
CHREAW MUNICIPAL AIRPORT......38 MPH
TOWERS LAKE MURRAY............37 MPH
LAKE WATEREE..................37 MPH


THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL.
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUST TO 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING.  THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE COAST
EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY...AND COLD.  THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OF THE THE WEST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE HIGH WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY SUNDAY.
FORECAST IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COLDEST DAY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
ARCTIC AIR TRIES TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. SOME MODIFICATION MAY
BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN BY SUNDAY...READING
WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REENTER THE
REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM WITH POPS.
HOWEVER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...ALONG WITH
THE ADDED MOISTURE...CAN NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANGE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  GENERALLY KEPT A
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BECOME WESTERLY
BEHIND THE COAS COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING WITH
INITIAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN STRONG WINDS FROM THE WEST THEN
NORTHWEST/NORTH. OBSERVATIONS HAVE SUPPORTED WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO
50 MPH ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BULK OF
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/ERN TAF SITES 20Z- 23Z
TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE
19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN
NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE EVENING WITH GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY 04Z FRIDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY WITH BKN VFR CLOUDS BECOMING SCATTERED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 051952
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
252 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TWILL DROP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. 88D SHOWS A
LINE OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. EXPECT
THE TREND OF TEMPERATURES FALLING BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES BEHIND
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. VWP SHOWS 30 KTS AT 1K FT
AND 45 KTS AT 3K FT. WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL LAKES...WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...SHOULD LIMIT MIXING...BUT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS STILL SUPPORT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO PICK UP THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT HELPING TO KEEP WINDS UP OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARMER LAKES.

HERE ARE A FEW WIND GUSTS AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHED THROUGH THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 230 PM:

ATOP WILLIAMS BRICE (RCWINDS).68 MPH
COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT........51 MPH
AIKEN COUNTY AIRPORT..........51 MPH
LAKE THURMOND DAM.............48 MPH
GILLS CREEK...................48 MPH
AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD............46 MPH
MCENTIRE ANG..................45 MPH
LAKE MURRAY DAM (RCWINDS).....44 MPH
IRMO (RCWINDS)................43 MPH
ST. ANDREWS (RCWINDS).........42 MPH
LANDFILL (RCWIDNS)............42 MPH
FLOTILLA ISLAND LAKE MURRAY...40 MPH
COLUMBIA HAMILTON OWENS.......40 MPH
CHREAW MUNICIPAL AIRPORT......38 MPH
TOWERS LAKE MURRAY............37 MPH
LAKE WATEREE..................37 MPH


THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL.
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUST TO 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING.  THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE COAST
EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY...AND COLD.  THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OF THE THE WEST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE HIGH WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY SUNDAY.
FORECAST IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COLDEST DAY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
ARCTIC AIR TRIES TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. SOME MODIFICATION MAY
BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN BY SUNDAY...READING
WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REENTER THE
REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM WITH POPS.
HOWEVER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...ALONG WITH
THE ADDED MOISTURE...CAN NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANGE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  GENERALLY KEPT A
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BECOME WESTERLY
BEHIND THE COAS COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING WITH
INITIAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN STRONG WINDS FROM THE WEST THEN
NORTHWEST/NORTH. OBSERVATIONS HAVE SUPPORTED WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO
50 MPH ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BULK OF
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/ERN TAF SITES 20Z- 23Z
TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE
19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN
NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE EVENING WITH GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY 04Z FRIDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY WITH BKN VFR CLOUDS BECOMING SCATTERED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 051952
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
252 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TWILL DROP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. 88D SHOWS A
LINE OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. EXPECT
THE TREND OF TEMPERATURES FALLING BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES BEHIND
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. VWP SHOWS 30 KTS AT 1K FT
AND 45 KTS AT 3K FT. WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL LAKES...WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...SHOULD LIMIT MIXING...BUT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS STILL SUPPORT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO PICK UP THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT HELPING TO KEEP WINDS UP OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARMER LAKES.

HERE ARE A FEW WIND GUSTS AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHED THROUGH THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 230 PM:

ATOP WILLIAMS BRICE (RCWINDS).68 MPH
COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT........51 MPH
AIKEN COUNTY AIRPORT..........51 MPH
LAKE THURMOND DAM.............48 MPH
GILLS CREEK...................48 MPH
AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD............46 MPH
MCENTIRE ANG..................45 MPH
LAKE MURRAY DAM (RCWINDS).....44 MPH
IRMO (RCWINDS)................43 MPH
ST. ANDREWS (RCWINDS).........42 MPH
LANDFILL (RCWIDNS)............42 MPH
FLOTILLA ISLAND LAKE MURRAY...40 MPH
COLUMBIA HAMILTON OWENS.......40 MPH
CHREAW MUNICIPAL AIRPORT......38 MPH
TOWERS LAKE MURRAY............37 MPH
LAKE WATEREE..................37 MPH


THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL.
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUST TO 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING.  THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE COAST
EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY...AND COLD.  THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OF THE THE WEST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE HIGH WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY SUNDAY.
FORECAST IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COLDEST DAY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
ARCTIC AIR TRIES TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. SOME MODIFICATION MAY
BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN BY SUNDAY...READING
WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REENTER THE
REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM WITH POPS.
HOWEVER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...ALONG WITH
THE ADDED MOISTURE...CAN NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANGE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  GENERALLY KEPT A
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BECOME WESTERLY
BEHIND THE COAS COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING WITH
INITIAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN STRONG WINDS FROM THE WEST THEN
NORTHWEST/NORTH. OBSERVATIONS HAVE SUPPORTED WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO
50 MPH ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BULK OF
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/ERN TAF SITES 20Z- 23Z
TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE
19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN
NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE EVENING WITH GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY 04Z FRIDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY WITH BKN VFR CLOUDS BECOMING SCATTERED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KFFC 051949
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE ATLANTA TAFS SITES AND SHOULD
PUSH SOUTH OF MCN BY 18-19Z TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT... GUSTY NW
WINDS AND MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL... WITH OCNL IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 21-22Z TODAY. EXPECT MVFR
COLD AIR SC CLOUDS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH LATE FRI
MORNING. THEN NW WINDS SWING NE BY LATE FRI MORNING AND CLOUDS BEGIN
TO SCT AROUND THAT TIME. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FRI AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT ENE WINDS AROUND 5-7KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
ON ELEMENTS AFTER MID-LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  46  29  59 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         28  46  33  58 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     23  43  26  54 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    24  45  26  56 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        32  49  32  61 /  30   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     27  45  33  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           32  50  28  61 /  40   5   0   0
ROME            25  43  25  55 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  27  47  26  59 /  20   5   0   0
VIDALIA         42  51  33  61 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...
UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...39



000
FXUS62 KFFC 051949
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE ATLANTA TAFS SITES AND SHOULD
PUSH SOUTH OF MCN BY 18-19Z TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT... GUSTY NW
WINDS AND MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL... WITH OCNL IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 21-22Z TODAY. EXPECT MVFR
COLD AIR SC CLOUDS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH LATE FRI
MORNING. THEN NW WINDS SWING NE BY LATE FRI MORNING AND CLOUDS BEGIN
TO SCT AROUND THAT TIME. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FRI AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT ENE WINDS AROUND 5-7KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
ON ELEMENTS AFTER MID-LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  46  29  59 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         28  46  33  58 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     23  43  26  54 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    24  45  26  56 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        32  49  32  61 /  30   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     27  45  33  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           32  50  28  61 /  40   5   0   0
ROME            25  43  25  55 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  27  47  26  59 /  20   5   0   0
VIDALIA         42  51  33  61 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...
UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...39




000
FXUS62 KFFC 051949
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE ATLANTA TAFS SITES AND SHOULD
PUSH SOUTH OF MCN BY 18-19Z TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT... GUSTY NW
WINDS AND MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL... WITH OCNL IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 21-22Z TODAY. EXPECT MVFR
COLD AIR SC CLOUDS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH LATE FRI
MORNING. THEN NW WINDS SWING NE BY LATE FRI MORNING AND CLOUDS BEGIN
TO SCT AROUND THAT TIME. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FRI AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT ENE WINDS AROUND 5-7KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
ON ELEMENTS AFTER MID-LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  46  29  59 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         28  46  33  58 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     23  43  26  54 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    24  45  26  56 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        32  49  32  61 /  30   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     27  45  33  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           32  50  28  61 /  40   5   0   0
ROME            25  43  25  55 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  27  47  26  59 /  20   5   0   0
VIDALIA         42  51  33  61 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...
UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...39



000
FXUS62 KFFC 051949
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE ATLANTA TAFS SITES AND SHOULD
PUSH SOUTH OF MCN BY 18-19Z TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT... GUSTY NW
WINDS AND MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL... WITH OCNL IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 21-22Z TODAY. EXPECT MVFR
COLD AIR SC CLOUDS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH LATE FRI
MORNING. THEN NW WINDS SWING NE BY LATE FRI MORNING AND CLOUDS BEGIN
TO SCT AROUND THAT TIME. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FRI AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT ENE WINDS AROUND 5-7KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
ON ELEMENTS AFTER MID-LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  46  29  59 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         28  46  33  58 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     23  43  26  54 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    24  45  26  56 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        32  49  32  61 /  30   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     27  45  33  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           32  50  28  61 /  40   5   0   0
ROME            25  43  25  55 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  27  47  26  59 /  20   5   0   0
VIDALIA         42  51  33  61 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...
UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...39




000
FXUS62 KCHS 051909
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
209 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE GENERAL THINKING FOR THE FORECAST
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND THE COASTAL MARINE FOG
HAS DISSIPATED AND LARGELY DRIFTED BACK OUT OVER THE WATERS OR
RIGHT AT THE CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT ARE KNOCKING ON
THE JENKINS COUNTY LINE AND THE RAP/HRRR CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE
TIMING WELL. ONLY MINOR FORECAST TWEAKS WERE MADE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST-EAST THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE BULK OF THE
MEASURABLE RAINS WILL BE OFFSHORE 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY RAIN BAND...LOW CEILINGS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL FILL IN AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF
DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES AFTER 4-5 AM. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS
SHOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SCOURING OUT BY THIS TIME...DEEP
MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE. THIS OPENS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF SAINT GEORGE-
RIDGEVILLE-HUGER-SHULERVILLE LINE. WITH ONLY MARGINALLY COLD
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING RIGHT AT FREEZING...
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM. HOWEVER...A VERY LIGHT
GLACE ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES...METAL OBJECTS AS WELL
AS SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GROUND CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OTHERWISE...WHICH INCLUDES NON-ELEVATED ROADWAYS. GIVEN THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS EVENT...THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. THE RISK FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL SURGE SOUTH AFTER
SUNRISE AS SUBFREEZING WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ADVECT SOUTH.

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER-MID
40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ONE COULD ARGUE
THAT A FREEZE WARNING IS NEEDED FOR PARTS OF DORCHESTER AND
BERKELEY COUNTIES NOW THAT ITS BEYOND 1 MARCH AND THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE
FREEZING LINE AND CONSIDERING A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND
WIDESPREAD FREEZE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...A FREEZE WARNING WILL
NOT BE ISSUED.

FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS COMPARED
WITH RECENT RUNS. THUS...EVEN AS THE COLDEST AIR FEATURING TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING AND WET BULB TEMPS JUST BELOW FREEZING SPREADS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS BETWEEN THE EDISTO RIVER/INTERSTATE 26 AND THE
SANTEE RIVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW APPEARS BARELY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN DRIZZLE. THUS...THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL JUSTIFIED ACROSS
NORTHERN/INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY A FAR
SOUTH AS A WALTERBORO-NORTH CHARLESTON-MCCLELLANVILLE LINE. EVEN
IF A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS ANY TRACE AMOUNTS OF GLAZE
SHOULD ONLY OCCUR ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND STREET
SIGNS...GREATLY LIMITING ANY IMPACTS.

FARTHER SOUTH/EAST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. IN GENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLOW BUT STEADY DRYING TREND...SO POPS DECREASE
WITH TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FALL TO NEAR ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ASIDE FROM ANY PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS...FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE
TEMPERATURES SOME 35-40F COLDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY...ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST SOUTH CAROLINA LOCATIONS AND ACROSS SE
GEORGIA LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95...AND A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX...WILL DEFER DECISIONS
REGARDING FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS TO SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

DESPITE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-16 TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GA COAST.

SUNDAY...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN AHEAD OF A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 60S SUNDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.

LAKE WINDS...FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR INTENSIFIES. EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 20 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WAVES ON THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WILL BUILD TO 1-2 FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT REACHES THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING...THEN IFR
LATE. PREVAILING IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNRISE
BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY PM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SEA FOG CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AND DRIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE GEORGIA WATERS AND THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS. WEB CAMS SHOWS THAT DENSE FOG CONTINUES FOR THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE ADVISORY THERE HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH 5 PM. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 KT OR
LESS WILL PERSIST WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT
OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
ENSUES. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURES RISES WILL SUPPORT GALES FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES
WILL OCCUR. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS...ROUGHLY BEYOND 40 NM...WHERE CONTRAFLOW ALONG THE
WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST. THE GALE
WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THESE WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR THE OTHER NEARSHORE
ZONES...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW GALE FORCE...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE
WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FRIDAY...AND ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS
WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE
LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS...BUT AN
OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ352-354.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...SPR
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCAE 051823
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
123 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TWILL DROP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY AS IT WILL
BE VERY TRICK WITH PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND
TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA AND COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...WE DID GET
OFF TO A WARM START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MIDDLE 60S WEST TO THE MIDDLE 70S EAST. THE MODELS ARE
TYPICALLY TOO FAST MOVING THE VERY DENSE COLDER AIR OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NAM INDICATED WEAK
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -2 IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON MIXING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH H85 WINDS 40 TO
50 KNOTS BELIEVE GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. VWP SHOWS 25 KTS AT 1K
FT AND 45 KTS AT 3K FT. WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL LAKES...WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
MIXING...BUT STILL BELIEVE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR
AREAS SURROUNDING THE LAKES. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL AND GFS LAMP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT...BUT AN
ISOLATE RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE.

THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE RISK OF BLACK ICE ALSO APPEARS LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING.  THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE COAST
EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY...AND COLD.  THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OF THE THE WEST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE HIGH WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY SUNDAY.
FORECAST IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COLDEST DAY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
ARCTIC AIR TRIES TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. SOME MODIFICATION MAY
BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN BY SUNDAY...READING
WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REENTER THE
REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM WITH POPS.
HOWEVER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...ALONG WITH
THE ADDED MOISTURE...CAN NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANGE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  GENERALLY KEPT A
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GOOD MIXING WITH INITIAL HEATING AND
INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
THE AFTERNOON. VCSH LATER THIS MORNING. BULK OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES 18Z-23Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE EVENING
WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY 04Z FRIDAY
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 051823
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
123 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TWILL DROP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY AS IT WILL
BE VERY TRICK WITH PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND
TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA AND COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...WE DID GET
OFF TO A WARM START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MIDDLE 60S WEST TO THE MIDDLE 70S EAST. THE MODELS ARE
TYPICALLY TOO FAST MOVING THE VERY DENSE COLDER AIR OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NAM INDICATED WEAK
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -2 IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON MIXING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH H85 WINDS 40 TO
50 KNOTS BELIEVE GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. VWP SHOWS 25 KTS AT 1K
FT AND 45 KTS AT 3K FT. WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL LAKES...WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
MIXING...BUT STILL BELIEVE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR
AREAS SURROUNDING THE LAKES. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL AND GFS LAMP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT...BUT AN
ISOLATE RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE.

THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE RISK OF BLACK ICE ALSO APPEARS LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING.  THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE COAST
EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY...AND COLD.  THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OF THE THE WEST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE HIGH WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY SUNDAY.
FORECAST IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COLDEST DAY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
ARCTIC AIR TRIES TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA. SOME MODIFICATION MAY
BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN BY SUNDAY...READING
WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REENTER THE
REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM WITH POPS.
HOWEVER WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...ALONG WITH
THE ADDED MOISTURE...CAN NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANGE POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  GENERALLY KEPT A
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GOOD MIXING WITH INITIAL HEATING AND
INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
THE AFTERNOON. VCSH LATER THIS MORNING. BULK OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES 18Z-23Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE EVENING
WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY 04Z FRIDAY
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KFFC 051739
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1239 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1102 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/
REGIONAL OBS SHOW THE SHALLOW COLD AIR TO THE NW BEING BLOCKED BY A
RIDGELINE THAT RUNS FROM NE ALABAMA INTO EAST CENTRAL TN... WITH
TEMPS WEST OF THE RIDGELINE AT OR BELOW FREEZING... AND TEMPS EAST
ABOVE FREEZING... WITH CHA...DNN... AND RMG STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. STILL EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO EVENTUALLY SPILL OVER THE
RIDGELINE AND POSSIBLY GIVE NW GA A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING TEMPS
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO... BEFORE THE RAIN FIELD CAN PUSH
EAST OF NW GA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON... A MIX OF SLEET/SNOW IS STILL
POSSIBLE. ALL THIS THREAT SPREADS INTO NE GA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD TEMPS FINALLY SPREAD EAST BEFORE THE RAIN FIELD CAN PUSH
EAST OF NE GA. ALTHOUGH WARM GROUND TEMPS AND HELP FROM DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP HOLD ANY WINTRY PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO MAYBE
A DUSTING OF SLEET/SNOW OR A BRIEF GLAZE OF ICE AT BEST... WILL HAVE
TO PLAY IT SAFE AND HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY HAS POSTED FOR NOW.
SURFACE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR MOST OF NORTH GA...EVEN SOUTH OF ATLANTA BY EARLY
EVENING... SO THE BLACK ICE THREAT BEGINS EARLY ACROSS NORTH GA AND
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. IF WE DO CLEAR THE ADVISORY AREA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE... WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THIS BLACK ICE THREAT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. STAY TUNED. /39


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO THE
NW CORNER OF GEORGIA TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THE FRONT HAS MADE
SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAVE SEEN A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN...BUT
THAT WILL CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE NAM
BRINGS IN THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE
00Z RUN LAST NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE
NW CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT DOESN`T
LOOK TO COME IN ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE /PREDOMINATE/ PTYPES WILL BE RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 00Z...SO HAVE ADDED SOME FRIZZLE (FREEZING DRIZZLE) TO
THE FORECAST.THE HIGHEST SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL CLOCKING IN
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT MOST LOCALES WILL BE BELOW THIS
VALUE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE AMOUNTS FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICING ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
IN ADDITION...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
ROADWAYS TO TURN INTO PATCHY BLACK ICE. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WW
ADVSY LONGER IN TIME AND FURTHER EAST.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE A SOGGY DAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT WILL EVEN EXTEND INTO THE
METRO AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA...WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRASELTON TO LAGRANGE...SO
EVEN IF THE KIDDOS DON`T NEED A JACKET THIS MORNING AT THE BUS
STOP...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ONE BY THE TIME SCHOOL LETS OUT.

SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME TWENTY OR MORE DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE ATLANTA TAFS SITES AND SHOULD
PUSH SOUTH OF MCN BY 18-19Z TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT... GUSTY NW
WINDS AND MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL... WITH OCNL IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 21-22Z TODAY. EXPECT MVFR
COLD AIR SC CLOUDS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH LATE FRI
MORNING. THEN NW WINDS SWING NE BY LATE FRI MORNING AND CLOUDS BEGIN
TO SCT AROUND THAT TIME. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FRI AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT ENE WINDS AROUND 5-7KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
ON ELEMENTS AFTER MID-LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

39
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  31  48  30 / 100  30   0   0
ATLANTA         58  29  47  31 / 100  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  24  43  26 / 100  20   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  25  46  28 / 100  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        66  33  53  33 / 100  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     57  29  46  30 / 100  20   0   0
MACON           68  36  52  31 /  90  40  10   0
ROME            45  24  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  29  49  28 / 100  10   0   0
VIDALIA         78  39  49  33 /  60  60  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...PICKENS...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...
WHITE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 051739
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1239 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1102 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/
REGIONAL OBS SHOW THE SHALLOW COLD AIR TO THE NW BEING BLOCKED BY A
RIDGELINE THAT RUNS FROM NE ALABAMA INTO EAST CENTRAL TN... WITH
TEMPS WEST OF THE RIDGELINE AT OR BELOW FREEZING... AND TEMPS EAST
ABOVE FREEZING... WITH CHA...DNN... AND RMG STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. STILL EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO EVENTUALLY SPILL OVER THE
RIDGELINE AND POSSIBLY GIVE NW GA A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING TEMPS
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO... BEFORE THE RAIN FIELD CAN PUSH
EAST OF NW GA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON... A MIX OF SLEET/SNOW IS STILL
POSSIBLE. ALL THIS THREAT SPREADS INTO NE GA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD TEMPS FINALLY SPREAD EAST BEFORE THE RAIN FIELD CAN PUSH
EAST OF NE GA. ALTHOUGH WARM GROUND TEMPS AND HELP FROM DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP HOLD ANY WINTRY PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO MAYBE
A DUSTING OF SLEET/SNOW OR A BRIEF GLAZE OF ICE AT BEST... WILL HAVE
TO PLAY IT SAFE AND HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY HAS POSTED FOR NOW.
SURFACE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR MOST OF NORTH GA...EVEN SOUTH OF ATLANTA BY EARLY
EVENING... SO THE BLACK ICE THREAT BEGINS EARLY ACROSS NORTH GA AND
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. IF WE DO CLEAR THE ADVISORY AREA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE... WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THIS BLACK ICE THREAT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. STAY TUNED. /39


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO THE
NW CORNER OF GEORGIA TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THE FRONT HAS MADE
SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAVE SEEN A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN...BUT
THAT WILL CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE NAM
BRINGS IN THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE
00Z RUN LAST NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE
NW CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT DOESN`T
LOOK TO COME IN ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE /PREDOMINATE/ PTYPES WILL BE RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 00Z...SO HAVE ADDED SOME FRIZZLE (FREEZING DRIZZLE) TO
THE FORECAST.THE HIGHEST SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL CLOCKING IN
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT MOST LOCALES WILL BE BELOW THIS
VALUE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE AMOUNTS FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICING ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
IN ADDITION...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
ROADWAYS TO TURN INTO PATCHY BLACK ICE. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WW
ADVSY LONGER IN TIME AND FURTHER EAST.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE A SOGGY DAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT WILL EVEN EXTEND INTO THE
METRO AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA...WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRASELTON TO LAGRANGE...SO
EVEN IF THE KIDDOS DON`T NEED A JACKET THIS MORNING AT THE BUS
STOP...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ONE BY THE TIME SCHOOL LETS OUT.

SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME TWENTY OR MORE DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE ATLANTA TAFS SITES AND SHOULD
PUSH SOUTH OF MCN BY 18-19Z TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT... GUSTY NW
WINDS AND MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL... WITH OCNL IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 21-22Z TODAY. EXPECT MVFR
COLD AIR SC CLOUDS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH LATE FRI
MORNING. THEN NW WINDS SWING NE BY LATE FRI MORNING AND CLOUDS BEGIN
TO SCT AROUND THAT TIME. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FRI AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT ENE WINDS AROUND 5-7KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
ON ELEMENTS AFTER MID-LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

39
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  31  48  30 / 100  30   0   0
ATLANTA         58  29  47  31 / 100  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  24  43  26 / 100  20   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  25  46  28 / 100  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        66  33  53  33 / 100  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     57  29  46  30 / 100  20   0   0
MACON           68  36  52  31 /  90  40  10   0
ROME            45  24  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  29  49  28 / 100  10   0   0
VIDALIA         78  39  49  33 /  60  60  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...PICKENS...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...
WHITE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 051602
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
REGIONAL OBS SHOW THE SHALLOW COLD AIR TO THE NW BEING BLOCKED BY A
RIDGELINE THAT RUNS FROM NE ALABAMA INTO EAST CENTRAL TN... WITH
TEMPS WEST OF THE RIDGELINE AT OR BELOW FREEZING... AND TEMPS EAST
ABOVE FREEZING... WITH CHA...DNN... AND RMG STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. STILL EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO EVENTUALLY SPILL OVER THE
RIDGELINE AND POSSIBLY GIVE NW GA A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING TEMPS
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO... BEFORE THE RAIN FIELD CAN PUSH
EAST OF NW GA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON... A MIX OF SLEET/SNOW IS STILL
POSSIBLE. ALL THIS THREAT SPREADS INTO NE GA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD TEMPS FINALLY SPREAD EAST BEFORE THE RAIN FIELD CAN PUSH
EAST OF NE GA. ALTHOUGH WARM GROUND TEMPS AND HELP FROM DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP HOLD ANY WINTRY PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO MAYBE
A DUSTING OF SLEET/SNOW OR A BRIEF GLAZE OF ICE AT BEST... WILL HAVE
TO PLAY IT SAFE AND HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY HAS POSTED FOR NOW.
SURFACE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR MOST OF NORTH GA...EVEN SOUTH OF ATLANTA BY EARLY
EVENING... SO THE BLACK ICE THREAT BEGINS EARLY ACROSS NORTH GA AND
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. IF WE DO CLEAR THE ADVISORY AREA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE... WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THIS BLACK ICE THREAT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. STAY TUNED. /39


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO THE
NW CORNER OF GEORGIA TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THE FRONT HAS MADE
SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAVE SEEN A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN...BUT
THAT WILL CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE NAM
BRINGS IN THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE
00Z RUN LAST NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE
NW CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT DOESN`T
LOOK TO COME IN ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE /PREDOMINATE/ PTYPES WILL BE RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 00Z...SO HAVE ADDED SOME FRIZZLE (FREEZING DRIZZLE) TO
THE FORECAST.THE HIGHEST SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL CLOCKING IN
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT MOST LOCALES WILL BE BELOW THIS
VALUE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE AMOUNTS FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICING ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
IN ADDITION...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
ROADWAYS TO TURN INTO PATCHY BLACK ICE. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WW
ADVSY LONGER IN TIME AND FURTHER EAST.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE A SOGGY DAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT WILL EVEN EXTEND INTO THE
METRO AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA...WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRASELTON TO LAGRANGE...SO
EVEN IF THE KIDDOS DON`T NEED A JACKET THIS MORNING AT THE BUS
STOP...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ONE BY THE TIME SCHOOL LETS OUT.

SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME TWENTY OR MORE DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 632 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/
12Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NW GA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD LAST
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. OBS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY IFR VSBYS WITH
THE RAIN...BUT CIGS ARE DROPPING TO IFR. WILL KEEP THE IFR CIGS
UNTIL THE RAIN BEGINS DIMINISHING. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO LAST
MUCH OF THE DAY ALSO...AND SWITCH AROUND TO THE NW BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  31  48  30 / 100  30   0   0
ATLANTA         58  29  47  31 / 100  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  24  43  26 / 100  20   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  25  46  28 / 100  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        66  33  53  33 / 100  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     57  29  46  30 / 100  20   0   0
MACON           68  36  52  31 /  90  40  10   0
ROME            45  24  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  29  49  28 / 100  10   0   0
VIDALIA         78  39  49  33 /  60  60  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...PICKENS...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...
WHITE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 051602
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
REGIONAL OBS SHOW THE SHALLOW COLD AIR TO THE NW BEING BLOCKED BY A
RIDGELINE THAT RUNS FROM NE ALABAMA INTO EAST CENTRAL TN... WITH
TEMPS WEST OF THE RIDGELINE AT OR BELOW FREEZING... AND TEMPS EAST
ABOVE FREEZING... WITH CHA...DNN... AND RMG STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. STILL EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO EVENTUALLY SPILL OVER THE
RIDGELINE AND POSSIBLY GIVE NW GA A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING TEMPS
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO... BEFORE THE RAIN FIELD CAN PUSH
EAST OF NW GA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON... A MIX OF SLEET/SNOW IS STILL
POSSIBLE. ALL THIS THREAT SPREADS INTO NE GA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD TEMPS FINALLY SPREAD EAST BEFORE THE RAIN FIELD CAN PUSH
EAST OF NE GA. ALTHOUGH WARM GROUND TEMPS AND HELP FROM DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP HOLD ANY WINTRY PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO MAYBE
A DUSTING OF SLEET/SNOW OR A BRIEF GLAZE OF ICE AT BEST... WILL HAVE
TO PLAY IT SAFE AND HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY HAS POSTED FOR NOW.
SURFACE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR MOST OF NORTH GA...EVEN SOUTH OF ATLANTA BY EARLY
EVENING... SO THE BLACK ICE THREAT BEGINS EARLY ACROSS NORTH GA AND
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. IF WE DO CLEAR THE ADVISORY AREA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE... WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THIS BLACK ICE THREAT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. STAY TUNED. /39


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO THE
NW CORNER OF GEORGIA TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THE FRONT HAS MADE
SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAVE SEEN A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN...BUT
THAT WILL CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE NAM
BRINGS IN THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE
00Z RUN LAST NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE
NW CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT DOESN`T
LOOK TO COME IN ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE /PREDOMINATE/ PTYPES WILL BE RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 00Z...SO HAVE ADDED SOME FRIZZLE (FREEZING DRIZZLE) TO
THE FORECAST.THE HIGHEST SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL CLOCKING IN
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT MOST LOCALES WILL BE BELOW THIS
VALUE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE AMOUNTS FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICING ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
IN ADDITION...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
ROADWAYS TO TURN INTO PATCHY BLACK ICE. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WW
ADVSY LONGER IN TIME AND FURTHER EAST.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE A SOGGY DAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT WILL EVEN EXTEND INTO THE
METRO AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA...WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRASELTON TO LAGRANGE...SO
EVEN IF THE KIDDOS DON`T NEED A JACKET THIS MORNING AT THE BUS
STOP...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ONE BY THE TIME SCHOOL LETS OUT.

SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME TWENTY OR MORE DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 632 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/
12Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NW GA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD LAST
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. OBS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY IFR VSBYS WITH
THE RAIN...BUT CIGS ARE DROPPING TO IFR. WILL KEEP THE IFR CIGS
UNTIL THE RAIN BEGINS DIMINISHING. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO LAST
MUCH OF THE DAY ALSO...AND SWITCH AROUND TO THE NW BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  31  48  30 / 100  30   0   0
ATLANTA         58  29  47  31 / 100  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  24  43  26 / 100  20   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  25  46  28 / 100  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        66  33  53  33 / 100  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     57  29  46  30 / 100  20   0   0
MACON           68  36  52  31 /  90  40  10   0
ROME            45  24  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  29  49  28 / 100  10   0   0
VIDALIA         78  39  49  33 /  60  60  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...PICKENS...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...
WHITE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 051602
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
REGIONAL OBS SHOW THE SHALLOW COLD AIR TO THE NW BEING BLOCKED BY A
RIDGELINE THAT RUNS FROM NE ALABAMA INTO EAST CENTRAL TN... WITH
TEMPS WEST OF THE RIDGELINE AT OR BELOW FREEZING... AND TEMPS EAST
ABOVE FREEZING... WITH CHA...DNN... AND RMG STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. STILL EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO EVENTUALLY SPILL OVER THE
RIDGELINE AND POSSIBLY GIVE NW GA A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING TEMPS
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO... BEFORE THE RAIN FIELD CAN PUSH
EAST OF NW GA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON... A MIX OF SLEET/SNOW IS STILL
POSSIBLE. ALL THIS THREAT SPREADS INTO NE GA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD TEMPS FINALLY SPREAD EAST BEFORE THE RAIN FIELD CAN PUSH
EAST OF NE GA. ALTHOUGH WARM GROUND TEMPS AND HELP FROM DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP HOLD ANY WINTRY PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO MAYBE
A DUSTING OF SLEET/SNOW OR A BRIEF GLAZE OF ICE AT BEST... WILL HAVE
TO PLAY IT SAFE AND HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY HAS POSTED FOR NOW.
SURFACE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR MOST OF NORTH GA...EVEN SOUTH OF ATLANTA BY EARLY
EVENING... SO THE BLACK ICE THREAT BEGINS EARLY ACROSS NORTH GA AND
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. IF WE DO CLEAR THE ADVISORY AREA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE... WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THIS BLACK ICE THREAT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. STAY TUNED. /39


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO THE
NW CORNER OF GEORGIA TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THE FRONT HAS MADE
SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAVE SEEN A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN...BUT
THAT WILL CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE NAM
BRINGS IN THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE
00Z RUN LAST NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE
NW CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT DOESN`T
LOOK TO COME IN ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE /PREDOMINATE/ PTYPES WILL BE RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 00Z...SO HAVE ADDED SOME FRIZZLE (FREEZING DRIZZLE) TO
THE FORECAST.THE HIGHEST SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL CLOCKING IN
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT MOST LOCALES WILL BE BELOW THIS
VALUE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE AMOUNTS FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICING ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
IN ADDITION...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
ROADWAYS TO TURN INTO PATCHY BLACK ICE. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WW
ADVSY LONGER IN TIME AND FURTHER EAST.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE A SOGGY DAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT WILL EVEN EXTEND INTO THE
METRO AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA...WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRASELTON TO LAGRANGE...SO
EVEN IF THE KIDDOS DON`T NEED A JACKET THIS MORNING AT THE BUS
STOP...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ONE BY THE TIME SCHOOL LETS OUT.

SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME TWENTY OR MORE DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 632 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/
12Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NW GA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD LAST
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. OBS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY IFR VSBYS WITH
THE RAIN...BUT CIGS ARE DROPPING TO IFR. WILL KEEP THE IFR CIGS
UNTIL THE RAIN BEGINS DIMINISHING. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO LAST
MUCH OF THE DAY ALSO...AND SWITCH AROUND TO THE NW BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  31  48  30 / 100  30   0   0
ATLANTA         58  29  47  31 / 100  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  24  43  26 / 100  20   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  25  46  28 / 100  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        66  33  53  33 / 100  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     57  29  46  30 / 100  20   0   0
MACON           68  36  52  31 /  90  40  10   0
ROME            45  24  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  29  49  28 / 100  10   0   0
VIDALIA         78  39  49  33 /  60  60  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...PICKENS...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...
WHITE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 051602
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
REGIONAL OBS SHOW THE SHALLOW COLD AIR TO THE NW BEING BLOCKED BY A
RIDGELINE THAT RUNS FROM NE ALABAMA INTO EAST CENTRAL TN... WITH
TEMPS WEST OF THE RIDGELINE AT OR BELOW FREEZING... AND TEMPS EAST
ABOVE FREEZING... WITH CHA...DNN... AND RMG STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. STILL EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO EVENTUALLY SPILL OVER THE
RIDGELINE AND POSSIBLY GIVE NW GA A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING TEMPS
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO... BEFORE THE RAIN FIELD CAN PUSH
EAST OF NW GA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON... A MIX OF SLEET/SNOW IS STILL
POSSIBLE. ALL THIS THREAT SPREADS INTO NE GA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD TEMPS FINALLY SPREAD EAST BEFORE THE RAIN FIELD CAN PUSH
EAST OF NE GA. ALTHOUGH WARM GROUND TEMPS AND HELP FROM DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP HOLD ANY WINTRY PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO MAYBE
A DUSTING OF SLEET/SNOW OR A BRIEF GLAZE OF ICE AT BEST... WILL HAVE
TO PLAY IT SAFE AND HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY HAS POSTED FOR NOW.
SURFACE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR MOST OF NORTH GA...EVEN SOUTH OF ATLANTA BY EARLY
EVENING... SO THE BLACK ICE THREAT BEGINS EARLY ACROSS NORTH GA AND
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. IF WE DO CLEAR THE ADVISORY AREA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE... WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THIS BLACK ICE THREAT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. STAY TUNED. /39


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO THE
NW CORNER OF GEORGIA TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THE FRONT HAS MADE
SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAVE SEEN A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN...BUT
THAT WILL CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE NAM
BRINGS IN THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE
00Z RUN LAST NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE
NW CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT DOESN`T
LOOK TO COME IN ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE /PREDOMINATE/ PTYPES WILL BE RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 00Z...SO HAVE ADDED SOME FRIZZLE (FREEZING DRIZZLE) TO
THE FORECAST.THE HIGHEST SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL CLOCKING IN
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT MOST LOCALES WILL BE BELOW THIS
VALUE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE AMOUNTS FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICING ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
IN ADDITION...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
ROADWAYS TO TURN INTO PATCHY BLACK ICE. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WW
ADVSY LONGER IN TIME AND FURTHER EAST.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE A SOGGY DAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT WILL EVEN EXTEND INTO THE
METRO AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA...WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRASELTON TO LAGRANGE...SO
EVEN IF THE KIDDOS DON`T NEED A JACKET THIS MORNING AT THE BUS
STOP...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ONE BY THE TIME SCHOOL LETS OUT.

SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME TWENTY OR MORE DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 632 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/
12Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NW GA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD LAST
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. OBS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY IFR VSBYS WITH
THE RAIN...BUT CIGS ARE DROPPING TO IFR. WILL KEEP THE IFR CIGS
UNTIL THE RAIN BEGINS DIMINISHING. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO LAST
MUCH OF THE DAY ALSO...AND SWITCH AROUND TO THE NW BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  31  48  30 / 100  30   0   0
ATLANTA         58  29  47  31 / 100  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  24  43  26 / 100  20   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  25  46  28 / 100  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        66  33  53  33 / 100  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     57  29  46  30 / 100  20   0   0
MACON           68  36  52  31 /  90  40  10   0
ROME            45  24  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  29  49  28 / 100  10   0   0
VIDALIA         78  39  49  33 /  60  60  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...PICKENS...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...
WHITE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 051554
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1054 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TWILL DROP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY AS IT WILL
BE VERY TRICK WITH PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND
TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA AND COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...WE DID GET
OFF TO A WARM START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MIDDLE 60S WEST TO THE MIDDLE 70S EAST. THE MODELS ARE
TYPICALLY TOO FAST MOVING THE VERY DENSE COLDER AIR OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NAM INDICATED WEAK
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -2 IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON MIXING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH H85 WINDS 40 TO
50 KNOTS BELIEVE GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. VWP SHOWS 25 KTS AT 1K
FT AND 45 KTS AT 3K FT. WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL LAKES...WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
MIXING...BUT STILL BELIEVE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR
AREAS SURROUNDING THE LAKES. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL AND GFS LAMP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT...BUT AN
ISOLATE RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE.

THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE RISK OF BLACK ICE ALSO APPEARS LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AND COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM COLD AIR MASS
WE USED THE COLDER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GOOD MIXING WITH INITIAL HEATING AND
INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
THE AFTERNOON. VCSH LATER THIS MORNING. BULK OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES 18Z-23Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME- FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE EVENING
WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY 04Z FRIDAY
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 051554
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1054 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TWILL DROP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY AS IT WILL
BE VERY TRICK WITH PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND
TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA AND COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...WE DID GET
OFF TO A WARM START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MIDDLE 60S WEST TO THE MIDDLE 70S EAST. THE MODELS ARE
TYPICALLY TOO FAST MOVING THE VERY DENSE COLDER AIR OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NAM INDICATED WEAK
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -2 IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON MIXING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH H85 WINDS 40 TO
50 KNOTS BELIEVE GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. VWP SHOWS 25 KTS AT 1K
FT AND 45 KTS AT 3K FT. WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL LAKES...WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
MIXING...BUT STILL BELIEVE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR
AREAS SURROUNDING THE LAKES. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL AND GFS LAMP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT...BUT AN
ISOLATE RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE.

THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE RISK OF BLACK ICE ALSO APPEARS LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AND COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM COLD AIR MASS
WE USED THE COLDER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GOOD MIXING WITH INITIAL HEATING AND
INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
THE AFTERNOON. VCSH LATER THIS MORNING. BULK OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES 18Z-23Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME- FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE EVENING
WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY 04Z FRIDAY
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 051554
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1054 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TWILL DROP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY AS IT WILL
BE VERY TRICK WITH PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND
TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA AND COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...WE DID GET
OFF TO A WARM START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MIDDLE 60S WEST TO THE MIDDLE 70S EAST. THE MODELS ARE
TYPICALLY TOO FAST MOVING THE VERY DENSE COLDER AIR OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NAM INDICATED WEAK
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -2 IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON MIXING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH H85 WINDS 40 TO
50 KNOTS BELIEVE GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. VWP SHOWS 25 KTS AT 1K
FT AND 45 KTS AT 3K FT. WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL LAKES...WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
MIXING...BUT STILL BELIEVE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR
AREAS SURROUNDING THE LAKES. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL AND GFS LAMP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT...BUT AN
ISOLATE RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE.

THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE RISK OF BLACK ICE ALSO APPEARS LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AND COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM COLD AIR MASS
WE USED THE COLDER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GOOD MIXING WITH INITIAL HEATING AND
INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
THE AFTERNOON. VCSH LATER THIS MORNING. BULK OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES 18Z-23Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME- FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE EVENING
WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY 04Z FRIDAY
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 051554
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1054 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TWILL DROP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY AS IT WILL
BE VERY TRICK WITH PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND
TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA AND COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...WE DID GET
OFF TO A WARM START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MIDDLE 60S WEST TO THE MIDDLE 70S EAST. THE MODELS ARE
TYPICALLY TOO FAST MOVING THE VERY DENSE COLDER AIR OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NAM INDICATED WEAK
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -2 IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON MIXING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH H85 WINDS 40 TO
50 KNOTS BELIEVE GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. VWP SHOWS 25 KTS AT 1K
FT AND 45 KTS AT 3K FT. WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL LAKES...WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
MIXING...BUT STILL BELIEVE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR
AREAS SURROUNDING THE LAKES. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL AND GFS LAMP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT...BUT AN
ISOLATE RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE.

THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE RISK OF BLACK ICE ALSO APPEARS LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AND COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM COLD AIR MASS
WE USED THE COLDER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GOOD MIXING WITH INITIAL HEATING AND
INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
THE AFTERNOON. VCSH LATER THIS MORNING. BULK OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES 18Z-23Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME- FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE EVENING
WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY 04Z FRIDAY
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCHS 051542
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1042 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE THIS MORNING...THE FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED WELL WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR AND WARM SUN IS SPILL ACROSS MOST OF IT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AREA OF SEA FOG ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST...AND ANY FOG THAT HAD ADVECTED ONSHORE EARLIER
HAS DISSIPATED WITH STRONG INSOLATION AND RETREATED BACK OVER THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR TODAY REVOLVES
AROUND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SLIPPING INTO THE LEE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA.
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
FRONT AS WELL AS THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...AND THEY
HAVE BEEN USED EXTENSIVELY FOR FORECAST UPDATES. MOST OF THE DAY
WILL BE DRY UNTIL THE FRONT BEGINS ENTERING FROM THE WEST AROUND 2
PM. THE DAMPENING UPPER WAVE ALOFT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND THE FRONT WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME
DISPLACED FROM ANY PVA ALOFT. THERE IS A POWERFUL 180 KT JET ALOFT
AND THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
IT...SO THAT WILL HELP PROVIDE BROAD ASCENT. BY THE TIME THE FRONT
REACHES THE FORECAST AREA IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE MAINLY A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS JUST BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY
WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO AS HIGH AS 35 MPH AT TIMES. FINALLY...IT WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN
FACT...WE WILL LIKELY COME CLOSE TO RECORDS AT KCHS AND KSAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST-EAST THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE BULK OF THE
MEASURABLE RAINS WILL BE OFFSHORE 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY RAIN BAND...LOW CEILINGS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL FILL IN AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF
DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES AFTER 4-5 AM. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS
SHOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SCOURING OUT BY THIS TIME...DEEP
MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE. THIS OPENS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF SAINT GEORGE-
RIDGEVILLE-HUGER-SHULERVILLE LINE. WITH ONLY MARGINALLY COLD
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING RIGHT AT FREEZING...
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM. HOWEVER...A VERY LIGHT
GLACE ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES...METAL OBJECTS AS WELL
AS SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GROUND CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OTHERWISE...WHICH INCLUDES NON-ELEVATED ROADWAYS. GIVEN THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS EVENT...THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. THE RISK FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL SURGE SOUTH AFTER
SUNRISE AS SUBFREEZING WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ADVECT SOUTH.

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER-MID
40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ONE COULD ARGUE
THAT A FREEZE WARNING IS NEEDED FOR PARTS OF DORCHESTER AND
BERKELEY COUNTIES NOW THAT ITS BEYOND 1 MARCH AND THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE
FREEZING LINE AND CONSIDERING A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND
WIDESPREAD FREEZE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...A FREEZE WARNING WILL
NOT BE ISSUED.

FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS COMPARED
WITH RECENT RUNS. THUS...EVEN AS THE COLDEST AIR FEATURING TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING AND WET BULB TEMPS JUST BELOW FREEZING SPREADS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS BETWEEN THE EDISTO RIVER/INTERSTATE 26 AND THE
SANTEE RIVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW APPEARS BARELY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN DRIZZLE. THUS...THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL JUSTIFIED ACROSS
NORTHERN/INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY A FAR
SOUTH AS A WALTERBORO-NORTH CHARLESTON-MCCLELLANVILLE LINE. EVEN
IF A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS ANY TRACE AMOUNTS OF GLAZE
SHOULD ONLY OCCUR ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND STREET
SIGNS...GREATLY LIMITING ANY IMPACTS.

FARTHER SOUTH/EAST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. IN GENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLOW BUT STEADY DRYING TREND...SO POPS DECREASE
WITH TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FALL TO NEAR ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ASIDE FROM ANY PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS...FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE
TEMPERATURES SOME 35-40F COLDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY...ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST SOUTH CAROLINA LOCATIONS AND ACROSS SE
GEORGIA LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95...AND A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX...WILL DEFER DECISIONS
REGARDING FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS TO SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

DESPITE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-16 TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GA COAST.

SUNDAY...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN AHEAD OF A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 60S SUNDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.

LAKE WINDS...FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR INTENSIFIES. EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 20 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WAVES ON THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WILL BUILD TO 1-2 FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT THE SITES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CRASH
RAPIDLY TO SUB-IFR BY 22-00Z AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAINS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH THE FRONT WITH
LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE TO FILLING IN BEHIND THE MAIN RAIN BAND HAS IT
PUSHES OFFSHORE. LIFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY AT KCHS. GUSTY WINDS
WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BOTH IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND IN THE POST-FRONTAL COLD SECTOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY PM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...DENSE SEA FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
HAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE
ADVISORY THERE HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD/DENSE SEA FOG WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA
NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PROVIDE LONGER PARCEL
RESIDENCE TIMES OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS. WILL EXTEND THE MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 2 PM...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE
GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE REMOVED PRIOR TO THAT GIVEN THE
LESS THAN IDEAL TRAJECTORY STRUCTURE THAT FAR SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS WILL PERSIST
WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OVER THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
ENSUES. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURES RISES WILL SUPPORT GALES FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES
WILL OCCUR. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS...ROUGHLY BEYOND 40 NM...WHERE CONTRAFLOW ALONG THE
WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST. THE GALE
WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THESE WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR THE OTHER NEARSHORE
ZONES...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW GALE FORCE...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE
WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FRIDAY...AND ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS
WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE
LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS...BUT AN
OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 051204
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
704 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...WINDS HAVE UNEXPECTEDLY BACKED SLIGHTLY ALONG
THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...WHICH IS HELPING TO DRIVE SEA FOG
INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. VSBYS EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 HAVE
DROPPED TO 1/2 NM OR LESS AT TIMES. IF CONDITIONS LOWER ANYMORE...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS WILL
RAPIDLY IMPROVE ONCE THE SUN GETS UP AND MIXING BEGINS. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE FOG FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE GOING TO BE QUITE DRAMATIC...WHICH IS LIKELY
UNDERSTATING WHAT THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WILL
EXPERIENCE AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MIX OUT
BY MID-MORNING AS VERTICAL MIXING INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSION...PERIODS OF INSOLATION AND A 1-2C INCREASE IN 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY...IF NOT A
BIT WARMER IF CLOUDS MIX OUT QUICK ENOUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID
80S LOOK REASONABLE FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE INFLUENCES FROM THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL NOT BE FACTOR.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD SUPPRESS OR AT LEAST
SEVERELY DELAY THE INLAND PENETRATION OF THE RESULT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE CHILLY SHELF
WATERS.

MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODELS AND CURRENT RADAR DATA SUGGEST THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE
IS ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE...SO VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRE-
FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ITSELF. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES BY MID-AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST TO
THE COAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. POPS
WILL GENERALLY BE CAPPED AT 50-70 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS THE FRONT MOVES IN AND RAIN BEGINS TO
FALL SO HAVE TRIED TO TIME THESE THERMAL FALLS TO REFLECT THE
EXPECTED TIMING OF THE BOTH THE FRONT AND ONSET OF RAIN.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT
ITSELF...SO A CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL AREAS.
THERE IS NO RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GUSTS
COULD APPROACH 25-30 MPH AT TIMES...SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...BUT
MIXING PROFILES OVER LAKE MOULTRIE WILL BE POOR AS WARM AIR FLOWS
OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS. THIS WILL YIELD ABSOLUTELY STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED WITHIN THE THICK MARINE LAYER. THE
DEGREE OF GUSTINESS WILL EVEN BE SUBDUED ALONG THE LAKESHORE AS A
ROBUST LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY...WHICH WILL TEND TO
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST-EAST THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE BULK OF THE
MEASURABLE RAINS WILL BE OFFSHORE 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY RAIN BAND...LOW CEILINGS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL FILL IN AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF
DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES AFTER 4-5 AM. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS
SHOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SCOURING OUT BY THIS TIME...DEEP
MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE. THIS OPENS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF SAINT GEORGE-
RIDGEVILLE-HUGER-SHULERVILLE LINE. WITH ONLY MARGINALLY COLD
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING RIGHT AT FREEZING...
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM. HOWEVER...A VERY LIGHT
GLACE ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES...METAL OBJECTS AS WELL
AS SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GROUND CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OTHERWISE...WHICH INCLUDES NON-ELEVATED ROADWAYS. GIVEN THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS EVENT...THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. THE RISK FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL SURGE SOUTH AFTER
SUNRISE AS SUBFREEZING WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ADVECT SOUTH.

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER-MID
40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ONE COULD ARGUE
THAT A FREEZE WARNING IS NEEDED FOR PARTS OF DORCHESTER AND
BERKELEY COUNTIES NOW THAT ITS BEYOND 1 MARCH AND THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE
FREEZING LINE AND CONSIDERING A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND
WIDESPREAD FREEZE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...A FREEZE WARNING WILL
NOT BE ISSUED.

FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS COMPARED
WITH RECENT RUNS. THUS...EVEN AS THE COLDEST AIR FEATURING TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING AND WET BULB TEMPS JUST BELOW FREEZING SPREADS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS BETWEEN THE EDISTO RIVER/INTERSTATE 26 AND THE
SANTEE RIVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW APPEARS BARELY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN DRIZZLE. THUS...THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL JUSTIFIED ACROSS
NORTHERN/INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY A FAR
SOUTH AS A WALTERBORO-NORTH CHARLESTON-MCCLELLANVILLE LINE. EVEN
IF A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS ANY TRACE AMOUNTS OF GLAZE
SHOULD ONLY OCCUR ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND STREET
SIGNS...GREATLY LIMITING ANY IMPACTS.

FARTHER SOUTH/EAST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. IN GENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLOW BUT STEADY DRYING TREND...SO POPS DECREASE
WITH TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FALL TO NEAR ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ASIDE FROM ANY PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS...FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE
TEMPERATURES SOME 35-40F COLDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY...ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST SOUTH CAROLINA LOCATIONS AND ACROSS SE
GEORGIA LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95...AND A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX...WILL DEFER DECISIONS
REGARDING FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS TO SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

DESPITE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-16 TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GA COAST.

SUNDAY...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN AHEAD OF A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 60S SUNDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.

LAKE WINDS...FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR INTENSIFIES. EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 20 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WAVES ON THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WILL BUILD TO 1-2 FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT KCHS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. OTHERWISE
VFR AT THE SITES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CRASH
RAPIDLY TO SUB-IFR BY 22-00Z AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH THE FRONT
WITH LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE TO FILLING IN BEHIND THE MAIN RAIN BAND
HAS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE. LIFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY AT KCHS. GUSTY
WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BOTH IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND IN THE POST-FRONTAL COLD SECTOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY PM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPANDED THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR. HARBOR CONTROL REPORTED ZERO VSBYS IN THE HARBOR.

TODAY...NASTY SEA FOG WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE CHILLY
SHELF WATERS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD/DENSE SEA FOG WILL OCCUR OVER
THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROVIDE LONGER PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS.
WILL EXTEND THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 2 PM...ALTHOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE REMOVED PRIOR
TO THAT GIVEN THE LESS THAN IDEAL TRAJECTORY STRUCTURE THAT FAR
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS WILL
PERSIST WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
ENSUES. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURES RISES WILL SUPPORT GALES FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES
WILL OCCUR. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS...ROUGHLY BEYOND 40 NM...WHERE CONTRAFLOW ALONG THE
WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST. THE GALE
WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THESE WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR THE OTHER NEARSHORE
ZONES...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW GALE FORCE...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE
WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FRIDAY...AND ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS
WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE
LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS...BUT AN
OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ374.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 051204
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
704 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...WINDS HAVE UNEXPECTEDLY BACKED SLIGHTLY ALONG
THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...WHICH IS HELPING TO DRIVE SEA FOG
INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. VSBYS EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 HAVE
DROPPED TO 1/2 NM OR LESS AT TIMES. IF CONDITIONS LOWER ANYMORE...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS WILL
RAPIDLY IMPROVE ONCE THE SUN GETS UP AND MIXING BEGINS. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE FOG FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE GOING TO BE QUITE DRAMATIC...WHICH IS LIKELY
UNDERSTATING WHAT THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WILL
EXPERIENCE AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MIX OUT
BY MID-MORNING AS VERTICAL MIXING INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSION...PERIODS OF INSOLATION AND A 1-2C INCREASE IN 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY...IF NOT A
BIT WARMER IF CLOUDS MIX OUT QUICK ENOUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID
80S LOOK REASONABLE FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE INFLUENCES FROM THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL NOT BE FACTOR.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD SUPPRESS OR AT LEAST
SEVERELY DELAY THE INLAND PENETRATION OF THE RESULT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE CHILLY SHELF
WATERS.

MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODELS AND CURRENT RADAR DATA SUGGEST THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE
IS ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE...SO VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRE-
FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ITSELF. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES BY MID-AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST TO
THE COAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. POPS
WILL GENERALLY BE CAPPED AT 50-70 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS THE FRONT MOVES IN AND RAIN BEGINS TO
FALL SO HAVE TRIED TO TIME THESE THERMAL FALLS TO REFLECT THE
EXPECTED TIMING OF THE BOTH THE FRONT AND ONSET OF RAIN.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT
ITSELF...SO A CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL AREAS.
THERE IS NO RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GUSTS
COULD APPROACH 25-30 MPH AT TIMES...SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...BUT
MIXING PROFILES OVER LAKE MOULTRIE WILL BE POOR AS WARM AIR FLOWS
OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS. THIS WILL YIELD ABSOLUTELY STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED WITHIN THE THICK MARINE LAYER. THE
DEGREE OF GUSTINESS WILL EVEN BE SUBDUED ALONG THE LAKESHORE AS A
ROBUST LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY...WHICH WILL TEND TO
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST-EAST THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE BULK OF THE
MEASURABLE RAINS WILL BE OFFSHORE 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY RAIN BAND...LOW CEILINGS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL FILL IN AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF
DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES AFTER 4-5 AM. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS
SHOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SCOURING OUT BY THIS TIME...DEEP
MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE. THIS OPENS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF SAINT GEORGE-
RIDGEVILLE-HUGER-SHULERVILLE LINE. WITH ONLY MARGINALLY COLD
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING RIGHT AT FREEZING...
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM. HOWEVER...A VERY LIGHT
GLACE ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES...METAL OBJECTS AS WELL
AS SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GROUND CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OTHERWISE...WHICH INCLUDES NON-ELEVATED ROADWAYS. GIVEN THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS EVENT...THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. THE RISK FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL SURGE SOUTH AFTER
SUNRISE AS SUBFREEZING WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ADVECT SOUTH.

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER-MID
40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ONE COULD ARGUE
THAT A FREEZE WARNING IS NEEDED FOR PARTS OF DORCHESTER AND
BERKELEY COUNTIES NOW THAT ITS BEYOND 1 MARCH AND THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE
FREEZING LINE AND CONSIDERING A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND
WIDESPREAD FREEZE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...A FREEZE WARNING WILL
NOT BE ISSUED.

FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS COMPARED
WITH RECENT RUNS. THUS...EVEN AS THE COLDEST AIR FEATURING TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING AND WET BULB TEMPS JUST BELOW FREEZING SPREADS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS BETWEEN THE EDISTO RIVER/INTERSTATE 26 AND THE
SANTEE RIVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW APPEARS BARELY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN DRIZZLE. THUS...THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL JUSTIFIED ACROSS
NORTHERN/INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY A FAR
SOUTH AS A WALTERBORO-NORTH CHARLESTON-MCCLELLANVILLE LINE. EVEN
IF A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS ANY TRACE AMOUNTS OF GLAZE
SHOULD ONLY OCCUR ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND STREET
SIGNS...GREATLY LIMITING ANY IMPACTS.

FARTHER SOUTH/EAST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. IN GENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLOW BUT STEADY DRYING TREND...SO POPS DECREASE
WITH TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FALL TO NEAR ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ASIDE FROM ANY PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS...FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE
TEMPERATURES SOME 35-40F COLDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY...ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST SOUTH CAROLINA LOCATIONS AND ACROSS SE
GEORGIA LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95...AND A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX...WILL DEFER DECISIONS
REGARDING FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS TO SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

DESPITE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-16 TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GA COAST.

SUNDAY...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN AHEAD OF A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 60S SUNDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.

LAKE WINDS...FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR INTENSIFIES. EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 20 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WAVES ON THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WILL BUILD TO 1-2 FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT KCHS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. OTHERWISE
VFR AT THE SITES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CRASH
RAPIDLY TO SUB-IFR BY 22-00Z AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH THE FRONT
WITH LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE TO FILLING IN BEHIND THE MAIN RAIN BAND
HAS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE. LIFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY AT KCHS. GUSTY
WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BOTH IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND IN THE POST-FRONTAL COLD SECTOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY PM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPANDED THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR. HARBOR CONTROL REPORTED ZERO VSBYS IN THE HARBOR.

TODAY...NASTY SEA FOG WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE CHILLY
SHELF WATERS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD/DENSE SEA FOG WILL OCCUR OVER
THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROVIDE LONGER PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS.
WILL EXTEND THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 2 PM...ALTHOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE REMOVED PRIOR
TO THAT GIVEN THE LESS THAN IDEAL TRAJECTORY STRUCTURE THAT FAR
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS WILL
PERSIST WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
ENSUES. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURES RISES WILL SUPPORT GALES FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES
WILL OCCUR. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS...ROUGHLY BEYOND 40 NM...WHERE CONTRAFLOW ALONG THE
WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST. THE GALE
WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THESE WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR THE OTHER NEARSHORE
ZONES...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW GALE FORCE...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE
WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FRIDAY...AND ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS
WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE
LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS...BUT AN
OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ374.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 051204
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
704 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...WINDS HAVE UNEXPECTEDLY BACKED SLIGHTLY ALONG
THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...WHICH IS HELPING TO DRIVE SEA FOG
INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. VSBYS EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 HAVE
DROPPED TO 1/2 NM OR LESS AT TIMES. IF CONDITIONS LOWER ANYMORE...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS WILL
RAPIDLY IMPROVE ONCE THE SUN GETS UP AND MIXING BEGINS. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE FOG FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE GOING TO BE QUITE DRAMATIC...WHICH IS LIKELY
UNDERSTATING WHAT THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WILL
EXPERIENCE AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MIX OUT
BY MID-MORNING AS VERTICAL MIXING INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSION...PERIODS OF INSOLATION AND A 1-2C INCREASE IN 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY...IF NOT A
BIT WARMER IF CLOUDS MIX OUT QUICK ENOUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID
80S LOOK REASONABLE FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE INFLUENCES FROM THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL NOT BE FACTOR.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD SUPPRESS OR AT LEAST
SEVERELY DELAY THE INLAND PENETRATION OF THE RESULT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE CHILLY SHELF
WATERS.

MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODELS AND CURRENT RADAR DATA SUGGEST THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE
IS ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE...SO VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRE-
FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ITSELF. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES BY MID-AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST TO
THE COAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. POPS
WILL GENERALLY BE CAPPED AT 50-70 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS THE FRONT MOVES IN AND RAIN BEGINS TO
FALL SO HAVE TRIED TO TIME THESE THERMAL FALLS TO REFLECT THE
EXPECTED TIMING OF THE BOTH THE FRONT AND ONSET OF RAIN.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT
ITSELF...SO A CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL AREAS.
THERE IS NO RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GUSTS
COULD APPROACH 25-30 MPH AT TIMES...SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...BUT
MIXING PROFILES OVER LAKE MOULTRIE WILL BE POOR AS WARM AIR FLOWS
OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS. THIS WILL YIELD ABSOLUTELY STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED WITHIN THE THICK MARINE LAYER. THE
DEGREE OF GUSTINESS WILL EVEN BE SUBDUED ALONG THE LAKESHORE AS A
ROBUST LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY...WHICH WILL TEND TO
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST-EAST THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE BULK OF THE
MEASURABLE RAINS WILL BE OFFSHORE 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY RAIN BAND...LOW CEILINGS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL FILL IN AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF
DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES AFTER 4-5 AM. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS
SHOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SCOURING OUT BY THIS TIME...DEEP
MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE. THIS OPENS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF SAINT GEORGE-
RIDGEVILLE-HUGER-SHULERVILLE LINE. WITH ONLY MARGINALLY COLD
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING RIGHT AT FREEZING...
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM. HOWEVER...A VERY LIGHT
GLACE ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES...METAL OBJECTS AS WELL
AS SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GROUND CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OTHERWISE...WHICH INCLUDES NON-ELEVATED ROADWAYS. GIVEN THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS EVENT...THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. THE RISK FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL SURGE SOUTH AFTER
SUNRISE AS SUBFREEZING WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ADVECT SOUTH.

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER-MID
40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ONE COULD ARGUE
THAT A FREEZE WARNING IS NEEDED FOR PARTS OF DORCHESTER AND
BERKELEY COUNTIES NOW THAT ITS BEYOND 1 MARCH AND THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE
FREEZING LINE AND CONSIDERING A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND
WIDESPREAD FREEZE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...A FREEZE WARNING WILL
NOT BE ISSUED.

FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS COMPARED
WITH RECENT RUNS. THUS...EVEN AS THE COLDEST AIR FEATURING TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING AND WET BULB TEMPS JUST BELOW FREEZING SPREADS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS BETWEEN THE EDISTO RIVER/INTERSTATE 26 AND THE
SANTEE RIVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW APPEARS BARELY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN DRIZZLE. THUS...THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL JUSTIFIED ACROSS
NORTHERN/INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY A FAR
SOUTH AS A WALTERBORO-NORTH CHARLESTON-MCCLELLANVILLE LINE. EVEN
IF A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS ANY TRACE AMOUNTS OF GLAZE
SHOULD ONLY OCCUR ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND STREET
SIGNS...GREATLY LIMITING ANY IMPACTS.

FARTHER SOUTH/EAST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. IN GENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLOW BUT STEADY DRYING TREND...SO POPS DECREASE
WITH TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FALL TO NEAR ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ASIDE FROM ANY PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS...FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE
TEMPERATURES SOME 35-40F COLDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY...ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST SOUTH CAROLINA LOCATIONS AND ACROSS SE
GEORGIA LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95...AND A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX...WILL DEFER DECISIONS
REGARDING FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS TO SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

DESPITE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-16 TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GA COAST.

SUNDAY...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN AHEAD OF A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 60S SUNDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.

LAKE WINDS...FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR INTENSIFIES. EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 20 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WAVES ON THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WILL BUILD TO 1-2 FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT KCHS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. OTHERWISE
VFR AT THE SITES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CRASH
RAPIDLY TO SUB-IFR BY 22-00Z AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH THE FRONT
WITH LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE TO FILLING IN BEHIND THE MAIN RAIN BAND
HAS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE. LIFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY AT KCHS. GUSTY
WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BOTH IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND IN THE POST-FRONTAL COLD SECTOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY PM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPANDED THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR. HARBOR CONTROL REPORTED ZERO VSBYS IN THE HARBOR.

TODAY...NASTY SEA FOG WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE CHILLY
SHELF WATERS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD/DENSE SEA FOG WILL OCCUR OVER
THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROVIDE LONGER PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS.
WILL EXTEND THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 2 PM...ALTHOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE REMOVED PRIOR
TO THAT GIVEN THE LESS THAN IDEAL TRAJECTORY STRUCTURE THAT FAR
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS WILL
PERSIST WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
ENSUES. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURES RISES WILL SUPPORT GALES FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES
WILL OCCUR. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS...ROUGHLY BEYOND 40 NM...WHERE CONTRAFLOW ALONG THE
WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST. THE GALE
WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THESE WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR THE OTHER NEARSHORE
ZONES...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW GALE FORCE...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE
WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FRIDAY...AND ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS
WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE
LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS...BUT AN
OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ374.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 051204
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
704 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...WINDS HAVE UNEXPECTEDLY BACKED SLIGHTLY ALONG
THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...WHICH IS HELPING TO DRIVE SEA FOG
INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. VSBYS EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 HAVE
DROPPED TO 1/2 NM OR LESS AT TIMES. IF CONDITIONS LOWER ANYMORE...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS WILL
RAPIDLY IMPROVE ONCE THE SUN GETS UP AND MIXING BEGINS. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE FOG FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE GOING TO BE QUITE DRAMATIC...WHICH IS LIKELY
UNDERSTATING WHAT THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WILL
EXPERIENCE AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MIX OUT
BY MID-MORNING AS VERTICAL MIXING INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSION...PERIODS OF INSOLATION AND A 1-2C INCREASE IN 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY...IF NOT A
BIT WARMER IF CLOUDS MIX OUT QUICK ENOUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID
80S LOOK REASONABLE FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE INFLUENCES FROM THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL NOT BE FACTOR.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD SUPPRESS OR AT LEAST
SEVERELY DELAY THE INLAND PENETRATION OF THE RESULT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE CHILLY SHELF
WATERS.

MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODELS AND CURRENT RADAR DATA SUGGEST THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE
IS ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE...SO VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRE-
FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ITSELF. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES BY MID-AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST TO
THE COAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. POPS
WILL GENERALLY BE CAPPED AT 50-70 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS THE FRONT MOVES IN AND RAIN BEGINS TO
FALL SO HAVE TRIED TO TIME THESE THERMAL FALLS TO REFLECT THE
EXPECTED TIMING OF THE BOTH THE FRONT AND ONSET OF RAIN.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT
ITSELF...SO A CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL AREAS.
THERE IS NO RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GUSTS
COULD APPROACH 25-30 MPH AT TIMES...SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...BUT
MIXING PROFILES OVER LAKE MOULTRIE WILL BE POOR AS WARM AIR FLOWS
OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS. THIS WILL YIELD ABSOLUTELY STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED WITHIN THE THICK MARINE LAYER. THE
DEGREE OF GUSTINESS WILL EVEN BE SUBDUED ALONG THE LAKESHORE AS A
ROBUST LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY...WHICH WILL TEND TO
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST-EAST THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE BULK OF THE
MEASURABLE RAINS WILL BE OFFSHORE 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY RAIN BAND...LOW CEILINGS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL FILL IN AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF
DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES AFTER 4-5 AM. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS
SHOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SCOURING OUT BY THIS TIME...DEEP
MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE. THIS OPENS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF SAINT GEORGE-
RIDGEVILLE-HUGER-SHULERVILLE LINE. WITH ONLY MARGINALLY COLD
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING RIGHT AT FREEZING...
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM. HOWEVER...A VERY LIGHT
GLACE ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES...METAL OBJECTS AS WELL
AS SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GROUND CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OTHERWISE...WHICH INCLUDES NON-ELEVATED ROADWAYS. GIVEN THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS EVENT...THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. THE RISK FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL SURGE SOUTH AFTER
SUNRISE AS SUBFREEZING WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ADVECT SOUTH.

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER-MID
40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ONE COULD ARGUE
THAT A FREEZE WARNING IS NEEDED FOR PARTS OF DORCHESTER AND
BERKELEY COUNTIES NOW THAT ITS BEYOND 1 MARCH AND THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE
FREEZING LINE AND CONSIDERING A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND
WIDESPREAD FREEZE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...A FREEZE WARNING WILL
NOT BE ISSUED.

FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS COMPARED
WITH RECENT RUNS. THUS...EVEN AS THE COLDEST AIR FEATURING TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING AND WET BULB TEMPS JUST BELOW FREEZING SPREADS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS BETWEEN THE EDISTO RIVER/INTERSTATE 26 AND THE
SANTEE RIVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW APPEARS BARELY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN DRIZZLE. THUS...THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL JUSTIFIED ACROSS
NORTHERN/INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY A FAR
SOUTH AS A WALTERBORO-NORTH CHARLESTON-MCCLELLANVILLE LINE. EVEN
IF A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS ANY TRACE AMOUNTS OF GLAZE
SHOULD ONLY OCCUR ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND STREET
SIGNS...GREATLY LIMITING ANY IMPACTS.

FARTHER SOUTH/EAST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. IN GENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLOW BUT STEADY DRYING TREND...SO POPS DECREASE
WITH TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FALL TO NEAR ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ASIDE FROM ANY PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS...FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE
TEMPERATURES SOME 35-40F COLDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY...ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST SOUTH CAROLINA LOCATIONS AND ACROSS SE
GEORGIA LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95...AND A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX...WILL DEFER DECISIONS
REGARDING FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS TO SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

DESPITE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-16 TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GA COAST.

SUNDAY...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN AHEAD OF A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 60S SUNDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.

LAKE WINDS...FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR INTENSIFIES. EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 20 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WAVES ON THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WILL BUILD TO 1-2 FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT KCHS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. OTHERWISE
VFR AT THE SITES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CRASH
RAPIDLY TO SUB-IFR BY 22-00Z AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH THE FRONT
WITH LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE TO FILLING IN BEHIND THE MAIN RAIN BAND
HAS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE. LIFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY AT KCHS. GUSTY
WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BOTH IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND IN THE POST-FRONTAL COLD SECTOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY PM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPANDED THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR. HARBOR CONTROL REPORTED ZERO VSBYS IN THE HARBOR.

TODAY...NASTY SEA FOG WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE CHILLY
SHELF WATERS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD/DENSE SEA FOG WILL OCCUR OVER
THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROVIDE LONGER PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS.
WILL EXTEND THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 2 PM...ALTHOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE REMOVED PRIOR
TO THAT GIVEN THE LESS THAN IDEAL TRAJECTORY STRUCTURE THAT FAR
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS WILL
PERSIST WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
ENSUES. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURES RISES WILL SUPPORT GALES FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES
WILL OCCUR. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS...ROUGHLY BEYOND 40 NM...WHERE CONTRAFLOW ALONG THE
WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST. THE GALE
WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THESE WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR THE OTHER NEARSHORE
ZONES...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW GALE FORCE...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE
WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FRIDAY...AND ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS
WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE
LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS...BUT AN
OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ374.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST/SPR



000
FXUS62 KFFC 051132
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
632 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO THE
NW CORNER OF GEORGIA TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THE FRONT HAS MADE
SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAVE SEEN A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN...BUT
THAT WILL CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE NAM
BRINGS IN THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE
00Z RUN LAST NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE
NW CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT DOESN`T
LOOK TO COME IN ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE /PREDOMINATE/ PTYPES WILL BE RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 00Z...SO HAVE ADDED SOME FRIZZLE (FREEZING DRIZZLE) TO
THE FORECAST.THE HIGHEST SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL CLOCKING IN
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT MOST LOCALES WILL BE BELOW THIS
VALUE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE AMOUNTS FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICING ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
IN ADDITION...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
ROADWAYS TO TURN INTO PATCHY BLACK ICE. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WW
ADVSY LONGER IN TIME AND FURTHER EAST.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE A SOGGY DAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT WILL EVEN EXTEND INTO THE
METRO AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA...WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRASELTON TO LAGRANGE...SO
EVEN IF THE KIDDOS DON`T NEED A JACKET THIS MORNING AT THE BUS
STOP...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ONE BY THE TIME SCHOOL LETS OUT.

SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME TWENTY OR MORE DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NW GA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD LAST
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. OBS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY IFR VSBYS WITH
THE RAIN...BUT CIGS ARE DROPPING TO IFR. WILL KEEP THE IFR CIGS
UNTIL THE RAIN BEGINS DIMINISHING. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO LAST
MUCH OF THE DAY ALSO...AND SWITCH AROUND TO THE NW BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  31  48  30 / 100  30   0   0
ATLANTA         58  29  47  31 / 100  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  24  43  26 / 100  20   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  25  46  28 / 100  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        66  33  53  33 / 100  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     57  29  46  30 / 100  20   0   0
MACON           68  36  52  31 /  90  40  10   0
ROME            45  24  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  29  49  28 / 100  10   0   0
VIDALIA         78  39  49  33 /  60  60  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...PICKENS...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...
WHITE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 051132
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
632 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO THE
NW CORNER OF GEORGIA TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THE FRONT HAS MADE
SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAVE SEEN A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN...BUT
THAT WILL CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE NAM
BRINGS IN THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE
00Z RUN LAST NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE
NW CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT DOESN`T
LOOK TO COME IN ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE /PREDOMINATE/ PTYPES WILL BE RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 00Z...SO HAVE ADDED SOME FRIZZLE (FREEZING DRIZZLE) TO
THE FORECAST.THE HIGHEST SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL CLOCKING IN
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT MOST LOCALES WILL BE BELOW THIS
VALUE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE AMOUNTS FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICING ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
IN ADDITION...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
ROADWAYS TO TURN INTO PATCHY BLACK ICE. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WW
ADVSY LONGER IN TIME AND FURTHER EAST.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE A SOGGY DAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT WILL EVEN EXTEND INTO THE
METRO AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA...WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRASELTON TO LAGRANGE...SO
EVEN IF THE KIDDOS DON`T NEED A JACKET THIS MORNING AT THE BUS
STOP...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ONE BY THE TIME SCHOOL LETS OUT.

SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME TWENTY OR MORE DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NW GA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD LAST
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. OBS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY IFR VSBYS WITH
THE RAIN...BUT CIGS ARE DROPPING TO IFR. WILL KEEP THE IFR CIGS
UNTIL THE RAIN BEGINS DIMINISHING. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO LAST
MUCH OF THE DAY ALSO...AND SWITCH AROUND TO THE NW BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  31  48  30 / 100  30   0   0
ATLANTA         58  29  47  31 / 100  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  24  43  26 / 100  20   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  25  46  28 / 100  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        66  33  53  33 / 100  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     57  29  46  30 / 100  20   0   0
MACON           68  36  52  31 /  90  40  10   0
ROME            45  24  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  29  49  28 / 100  10   0   0
VIDALIA         78  39  49  33 /  60  60  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...PICKENS...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...
WHITE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 051132
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
632 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO THE
NW CORNER OF GEORGIA TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THE FRONT HAS MADE
SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAVE SEEN A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN...BUT
THAT WILL CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE NAM
BRINGS IN THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE
00Z RUN LAST NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE
NW CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT DOESN`T
LOOK TO COME IN ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE /PREDOMINATE/ PTYPES WILL BE RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 00Z...SO HAVE ADDED SOME FRIZZLE (FREEZING DRIZZLE) TO
THE FORECAST.THE HIGHEST SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL CLOCKING IN
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT MOST LOCALES WILL BE BELOW THIS
VALUE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE AMOUNTS FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICING ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
IN ADDITION...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
ROADWAYS TO TURN INTO PATCHY BLACK ICE. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WW
ADVSY LONGER IN TIME AND FURTHER EAST.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE A SOGGY DAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT WILL EVEN EXTEND INTO THE
METRO AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA...WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRASELTON TO LAGRANGE...SO
EVEN IF THE KIDDOS DON`T NEED A JACKET THIS MORNING AT THE BUS
STOP...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ONE BY THE TIME SCHOOL LETS OUT.

SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME TWENTY OR MORE DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NW GA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD LAST
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. OBS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY IFR VSBYS WITH
THE RAIN...BUT CIGS ARE DROPPING TO IFR. WILL KEEP THE IFR CIGS
UNTIL THE RAIN BEGINS DIMINISHING. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO LAST
MUCH OF THE DAY ALSO...AND SWITCH AROUND TO THE NW BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  31  48  30 / 100  30   0   0
ATLANTA         58  29  47  31 / 100  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  24  43  26 / 100  20   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  25  46  28 / 100  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        66  33  53  33 / 100  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     57  29  46  30 / 100  20   0   0
MACON           68  36  52  31 /  90  40  10   0
ROME            45  24  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  29  49  28 / 100  10   0   0
VIDALIA         78  39  49  33 /  60  60  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...PICKENS...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...
WHITE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 051132
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
632 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO THE
NW CORNER OF GEORGIA TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THE FRONT HAS MADE
SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAVE SEEN A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN...BUT
THAT WILL CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE NAM
BRINGS IN THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE
00Z RUN LAST NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE
NW CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT DOESN`T
LOOK TO COME IN ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE /PREDOMINATE/ PTYPES WILL BE RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 00Z...SO HAVE ADDED SOME FRIZZLE (FREEZING DRIZZLE) TO
THE FORECAST.THE HIGHEST SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL CLOCKING IN
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT MOST LOCALES WILL BE BELOW THIS
VALUE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE AMOUNTS FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICING ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
IN ADDITION...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
ROADWAYS TO TURN INTO PATCHY BLACK ICE. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WW
ADVSY LONGER IN TIME AND FURTHER EAST.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE A SOGGY DAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT WILL EVEN EXTEND INTO THE
METRO AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA...WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRASELTON TO LAGRANGE...SO
EVEN IF THE KIDDOS DON`T NEED A JACKET THIS MORNING AT THE BUS
STOP...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ONE BY THE TIME SCHOOL LETS OUT.

SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME TWENTY OR MORE DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NW GA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD LAST
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. OBS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY IFR VSBYS WITH
THE RAIN...BUT CIGS ARE DROPPING TO IFR. WILL KEEP THE IFR CIGS
UNTIL THE RAIN BEGINS DIMINISHING. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO LAST
MUCH OF THE DAY ALSO...AND SWITCH AROUND TO THE NW BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  31  48  30 / 100  30   0   0
ATLANTA         58  29  47  31 / 100  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  24  43  26 / 100  20   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  25  46  28 / 100  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        66  33  53  33 / 100  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     57  29  46  30 / 100  20   0   0
MACON           68  36  52  31 /  90  40  10   0
ROME            45  24  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  29  49  28 / 100  10   0   0
VIDALIA         78  39  49  33 /  60  60  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...PICKENS...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...
WHITE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 051132
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
632 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO THE
NW CORNER OF GEORGIA TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THE FRONT HAS MADE
SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAVE SEEN A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN...BUT
THAT WILL CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE NAM
BRINGS IN THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE
00Z RUN LAST NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE
NW CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT DOESN`T
LOOK TO COME IN ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE /PREDOMINATE/ PTYPES WILL BE RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 00Z...SO HAVE ADDED SOME FRIZZLE (FREEZING DRIZZLE) TO
THE FORECAST.THE HIGHEST SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL CLOCKING IN
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT MOST LOCALES WILL BE BELOW THIS
VALUE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE AMOUNTS FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICING ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
IN ADDITION...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
ROADWAYS TO TURN INTO PATCHY BLACK ICE. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WW
ADVSY LONGER IN TIME AND FURTHER EAST.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE A SOGGY DAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT WILL EVEN EXTEND INTO THE
METRO AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA...WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRASELTON TO LAGRANGE...SO
EVEN IF THE KIDDOS DON`T NEED A JACKET THIS MORNING AT THE BUS
STOP...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ONE BY THE TIME SCHOOL LETS OUT.

SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME TWENTY OR MORE DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NW GA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD LAST
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. OBS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY IFR VSBYS WITH
THE RAIN...BUT CIGS ARE DROPPING TO IFR. WILL KEEP THE IFR CIGS
UNTIL THE RAIN BEGINS DIMINISHING. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO LAST
MUCH OF THE DAY ALSO...AND SWITCH AROUND TO THE NW BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  31  48  30 / 100  30   0   0
ATLANTA         58  29  47  31 / 100  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  24  43  26 / 100  20   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  25  46  28 / 100  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        66  33  53  33 / 100  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     57  29  46  30 / 100  20   0   0
MACON           68  36  52  31 /  90  40  10   0
ROME            45  24  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  29  49  28 / 100  10   0   0
VIDALIA         78  39  49  33 /  60  60  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...PICKENS...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...
WHITE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 051132
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
632 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO THE
NW CORNER OF GEORGIA TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THE FRONT HAS MADE
SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAVE SEEN A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN...BUT
THAT WILL CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE NAM
BRINGS IN THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE
00Z RUN LAST NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE
NW CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT DOESN`T
LOOK TO COME IN ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE /PREDOMINATE/ PTYPES WILL BE RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 00Z...SO HAVE ADDED SOME FRIZZLE (FREEZING DRIZZLE) TO
THE FORECAST.THE HIGHEST SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL CLOCKING IN
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT MOST LOCALES WILL BE BELOW THIS
VALUE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE AMOUNTS FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICING ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
IN ADDITION...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
ROADWAYS TO TURN INTO PATCHY BLACK ICE. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WW
ADVSY LONGER IN TIME AND FURTHER EAST.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE A SOGGY DAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT WILL EVEN EXTEND INTO THE
METRO AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA...WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRASELTON TO LAGRANGE...SO
EVEN IF THE KIDDOS DON`T NEED A JACKET THIS MORNING AT THE BUS
STOP...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ONE BY THE TIME SCHOOL LETS OUT.

SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME TWENTY OR MORE DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NW GA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD LAST
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. OBS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY IFR VSBYS WITH
THE RAIN...BUT CIGS ARE DROPPING TO IFR. WILL KEEP THE IFR CIGS
UNTIL THE RAIN BEGINS DIMINISHING. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO LAST
MUCH OF THE DAY ALSO...AND SWITCH AROUND TO THE NW BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  31  48  30 / 100  30   0   0
ATLANTA         58  29  47  31 / 100  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  24  43  26 / 100  20   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  25  46  28 / 100  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        66  33  53  33 / 100  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     57  29  46  30 / 100  20   0   0
MACON           68  36  52  31 /  90  40  10   0
ROME            45  24  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  29  49  28 / 100  10   0   0
VIDALIA         78  39  49  33 /  60  60  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...PICKENS...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...
WHITE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 051130
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
630 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE. HOWEVER...WE WILL GET OFF TO A WARM
START AND THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST MOVING THE COLDER AIR
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE. THE NAM
INDICATED WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE-BASED
LI/S NEAR -2 IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION EARLY. BASED ON MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH H85
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BELIEVE GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. THE
RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT MIXING...BUT STILL BELIEVE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL AND GFS LAMP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY BUT BASED ON THE FORECAST OF
WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM BELIEVE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW.

THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE RISK OF BLACK ICE ALSO APPEARS LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AND COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM COLD AIR MASS
WE USED THE COLDER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO COULD SEE WIND
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. VCSH
LATER THIS MORNING. BULK OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN
THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN
NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE EVENING WITH GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY 04Z FRIDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 051130
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
630 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE. HOWEVER...WE WILL GET OFF TO A WARM
START AND THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST MOVING THE COLDER AIR
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE. THE NAM
INDICATED WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE-BASED
LI/S NEAR -2 IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION EARLY. BASED ON MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH H85
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BELIEVE GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. THE
RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT MIXING...BUT STILL BELIEVE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL AND GFS LAMP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY BUT BASED ON THE FORECAST OF
WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM BELIEVE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW.

THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE RISK OF BLACK ICE ALSO APPEARS LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AND COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM COLD AIR MASS
WE USED THE COLDER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO COULD SEE WIND
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. VCSH
LATER THIS MORNING. BULK OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN
THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN
NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE EVENING WITH GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY 04Z FRIDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 051130
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
630 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE. HOWEVER...WE WILL GET OFF TO A WARM
START AND THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST MOVING THE COLDER AIR
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE. THE NAM
INDICATED WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE-BASED
LI/S NEAR -2 IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION EARLY. BASED ON MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH H85
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BELIEVE GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. THE
RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT MIXING...BUT STILL BELIEVE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL AND GFS LAMP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY BUT BASED ON THE FORECAST OF
WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM BELIEVE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW.

THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE RISK OF BLACK ICE ALSO APPEARS LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AND COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM COLD AIR MASS
WE USED THE COLDER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO COULD SEE WIND
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. VCSH
LATER THIS MORNING. BULK OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN
THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN
NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE EVENING WITH GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY 04Z FRIDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 051130
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
630 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE. HOWEVER...WE WILL GET OFF TO A WARM
START AND THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST MOVING THE COLDER AIR
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE. THE NAM
INDICATED WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE-BASED
LI/S NEAR -2 IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION EARLY. BASED ON MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH H85
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BELIEVE GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. THE
RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT MIXING...BUT STILL BELIEVE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL AND GFS LAMP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY BUT BASED ON THE FORECAST OF
WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM BELIEVE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW.

THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE RISK OF BLACK ICE ALSO APPEARS LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AND COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM COLD AIR MASS
WE USED THE COLDER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO COULD SEE WIND
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. VCSH
LATER THIS MORNING. BULK OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN
THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN
NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE EVENING WITH GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY 04Z FRIDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 051130
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
630 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE. HOWEVER...WE WILL GET OFF TO A WARM
START AND THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST MOVING THE COLDER AIR
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE. THE NAM
INDICATED WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE-BASED
LI/S NEAR -2 IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION EARLY. BASED ON MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH H85
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BELIEVE GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. THE
RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT MIXING...BUT STILL BELIEVE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL AND GFS LAMP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY BUT BASED ON THE FORECAST OF
WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM BELIEVE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW.

THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE RISK OF BLACK ICE ALSO APPEARS LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AND COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM COLD AIR MASS
WE USED THE COLDER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO COULD SEE WIND
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. VCSH
LATER THIS MORNING. BULK OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN
THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN
NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE EVENING WITH GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY 04Z FRIDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 051130
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
630 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE. HOWEVER...WE WILL GET OFF TO A WARM
START AND THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST MOVING THE COLDER AIR
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE. THE NAM
INDICATED WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE-BASED
LI/S NEAR -2 IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION EARLY. BASED ON MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH H85
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BELIEVE GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. THE
RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT MIXING...BUT STILL BELIEVE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL AND GFS LAMP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY BUT BASED ON THE FORECAST OF
WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM BELIEVE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW.

THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE RISK OF BLACK ICE ALSO APPEARS LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AND COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM COLD AIR MASS
WE USED THE COLDER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO COULD SEE WIND
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. VCSH
LATER THIS MORNING. BULK OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN
THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN
NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE EVENING WITH GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY 04Z FRIDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 051128
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
628 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE SUNRISE UPDATE...INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR MUCH
OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE GOING TO BE QUITE DRAMATIC...WHICH IS LIKELY
UNDERSTATING WHAT THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WILL
EXPERIENCE AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MIX OUT
BY MID-MORNING AS VERTICAL MIXING INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSION...PERIODS OF INSOLATION AND A 1-2C INCREASE IN 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY...IF NOT A
BIT WARMER IF CLOUDS MIX OUT QUICK ENOUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID
80S LOOK REASONABLE FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE INFLUENCES FROM THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL NOT BE FACTOR.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD SUPPRESS OR AT LEAST
SEVERELY DELAY THE INLAND PENETRATION OF THE RESULT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE CHILLY SHELF
WATERS.

MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODELS AND CURRENT RADAR DATA SUGGEST THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE
IS ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE...SO VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRE-
FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ITSELF. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES BY MID-AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST TO
THE COAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. POPS
WILL GENERALLY BE CAPPED AT 50-70 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS THE FRONT MOVES IN AND RAIN BEGINS TO
FALL SO HAVE TRIED TO TIME THESE THERMAL FALLS TO REFLECT THE
EXPECTED TIMING OF THE BOTH THE FRONT AND ONSET OF RAIN.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT
ITSELF...SO A CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL AREAS.
THERE IS NO RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GUSTS
COULD APPROACH 25-30 MPH AT TIMES...SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...BUT
MIXING PROFILES OVER LAKE MOULTRIE WILL BE POOR AS WARM AIR FLOWS
OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS. THIS WILL YIELD ABSOLUTELY STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED WITHIN THE THICK MARINE LAYER. THE
DEGREE OF GUSTINESS WILL EVEN BE SUBDUED ALONG THE LAKESHORE AS A
ROBUST LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY...WHICH WILL TEND TO
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST-EAST THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE BULK OF THE
MEASURABLE RAINS WILL BE OFFSHORE 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY RAIN BAND...LOW CEILINGS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL FILL IN AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF
DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES AFTER 4-5 AM. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS
SHOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SCOURING OUT BY THIS TIME...DEEP
MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE. THIS OPENS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF SAINT GEORGE-
RIDGEVILLE-HUGER-SHULERVILLE LINE. WITH ONLY MARGINALLY COLD
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING RIGHT AT FREEZING...
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM. HOWEVER...A VERY LIGHT
GLACE ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES...METAL OBJECTS AS WELL
AS SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GROUND CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OTHERWISE...WHICH INCLUDES NON-ELEVATED ROADWAYS. GIVEN THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS EVENT...THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. THE RISK FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL SURGE SOUTH AFTER
SUNRISE AS SUBFREEZING WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ADVECT SOUTH.

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER-MID
40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ONE COULD ARGUE
THAT A FREEZE WARNING IS NEEDED FOR PARTS OF DORCHESTER AND
BERKELEY COUNTIES NOW THAT ITS BEYOND 1 MARCH AND THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE
FREEZING LINE AND CONSIDERING A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND
WIDESPREAD FREEZE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...A FREEZE WARNING WILL
NOT BE ISSUED.

FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS COMPARED
WITH RECENT RUNS. THUS...EVEN AS THE COLDEST AIR FEATURING TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING AND WET BULB TEMPS JUST BELOW FREEZING SPREADS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS BETWEEN THE EDISTO RIVER/INTERSTATE 26 AND THE
SANTEE RIVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW APPEARS BARELY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN DRIZZLE. THUS...THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL JUSTIFIED ACROSS
NORTHERN/INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY A FAR
SOUTH AS A WALTERBORO-NORTH CHARLESTON-MCCLELLANVILLE LINE. EVEN
IF A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS ANY TRACE AMOUNTS OF GLAZE
SHOULD ONLY OCCUR ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND STREET
SIGNS...GREATLY LIMITING ANY IMPACTS.

FARTHER SOUTH/EAST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. IN GENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLOW BUT STEADY DRYING TREND...SO POPS DECREASE
WITH TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FALL TO NEAR ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ASIDE FROM ANY PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS...FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE
TEMPERATURES SOME 35-40F COLDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY...ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST SOUTH CAROLINA LOCATIONS AND ACROSS SE
GEORGIA LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95...AND A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX...WILL DEFER DECISIONS
REGARDING FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS TO SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

DESPITE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-16 TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GA COAST.

SUNDAY...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN AHEAD OF A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 60S SUNDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.

LAKE WINDS...FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR INTENSIFIES. EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 20 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WAVES ON THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WILL BUILD TO 1-2 FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT KCHS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. OTHERWISE
VFR AT THE SITES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CRASH
RAPIDLY TO SUB-IFR BY 22-00Z AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH THE FRONT
WITH LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE TO FILLING IN BEHIND THE MAIN RAIN BAND
HAS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE. LIFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY AT KCHS. GUSTY
WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BOTH IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND IN THE POST-FRONTAL COLD SECTOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY PM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...NASTY SEA FOG WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE CHILLY
SHELF WATERS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD/DENSE SEA FOG WILL OCCUR OVER
THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROVIDE LONGER PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS.
WILL EXTEND THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 2 PM...ALTHOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE REMOVED PRIOR
TO THAT GIVEN THE LESS THAN IDEAL TRAJECTORY STRUCTURE THAT FAR
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS WILL
PERSIST WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
ENSUES. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURES RISES WILL SUPPORT GALES FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES
WILL OCCUR. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS...ROUGHLY BEYOND 40 NM...WHERE CONTRAFLOW ALONG THE
WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST. THE GALE
WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THESE WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR THE OTHER NEARSHORE
ZONES...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW GALE FORCE...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE
WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FRIDAY...AND ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS
WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE
LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS...BUT AN
OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 051128
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
628 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE SUNRISE UPDATE...INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR MUCH
OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE GOING TO BE QUITE DRAMATIC...WHICH IS LIKELY
UNDERSTATING WHAT THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WILL
EXPERIENCE AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MIX OUT
BY MID-MORNING AS VERTICAL MIXING INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSION...PERIODS OF INSOLATION AND A 1-2C INCREASE IN 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY...IF NOT A
BIT WARMER IF CLOUDS MIX OUT QUICK ENOUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID
80S LOOK REASONABLE FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE INFLUENCES FROM THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL NOT BE FACTOR.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD SUPPRESS OR AT LEAST
SEVERELY DELAY THE INLAND PENETRATION OF THE RESULT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE CHILLY SHELF
WATERS.

MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODELS AND CURRENT RADAR DATA SUGGEST THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE
IS ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE...SO VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRE-
FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ITSELF. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES BY MID-AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST TO
THE COAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. POPS
WILL GENERALLY BE CAPPED AT 50-70 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS THE FRONT MOVES IN AND RAIN BEGINS TO
FALL SO HAVE TRIED TO TIME THESE THERMAL FALLS TO REFLECT THE
EXPECTED TIMING OF THE BOTH THE FRONT AND ONSET OF RAIN.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT
ITSELF...SO A CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL AREAS.
THERE IS NO RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GUSTS
COULD APPROACH 25-30 MPH AT TIMES...SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...BUT
MIXING PROFILES OVER LAKE MOULTRIE WILL BE POOR AS WARM AIR FLOWS
OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS. THIS WILL YIELD ABSOLUTELY STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED WITHIN THE THICK MARINE LAYER. THE
DEGREE OF GUSTINESS WILL EVEN BE SUBDUED ALONG THE LAKESHORE AS A
ROBUST LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY...WHICH WILL TEND TO
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST-EAST THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE BULK OF THE
MEASURABLE RAINS WILL BE OFFSHORE 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY RAIN BAND...LOW CEILINGS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL FILL IN AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF
DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES AFTER 4-5 AM. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS
SHOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SCOURING OUT BY THIS TIME...DEEP
MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE. THIS OPENS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF SAINT GEORGE-
RIDGEVILLE-HUGER-SHULERVILLE LINE. WITH ONLY MARGINALLY COLD
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING RIGHT AT FREEZING...
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM. HOWEVER...A VERY LIGHT
GLACE ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES...METAL OBJECTS AS WELL
AS SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GROUND CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OTHERWISE...WHICH INCLUDES NON-ELEVATED ROADWAYS. GIVEN THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS EVENT...THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. THE RISK FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL SURGE SOUTH AFTER
SUNRISE AS SUBFREEZING WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ADVECT SOUTH.

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER-MID
40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ONE COULD ARGUE
THAT A FREEZE WARNING IS NEEDED FOR PARTS OF DORCHESTER AND
BERKELEY COUNTIES NOW THAT ITS BEYOND 1 MARCH AND THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE
FREEZING LINE AND CONSIDERING A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND
WIDESPREAD FREEZE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...A FREEZE WARNING WILL
NOT BE ISSUED.

FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS COMPARED
WITH RECENT RUNS. THUS...EVEN AS THE COLDEST AIR FEATURING TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING AND WET BULB TEMPS JUST BELOW FREEZING SPREADS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS BETWEEN THE EDISTO RIVER/INTERSTATE 26 AND THE
SANTEE RIVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW APPEARS BARELY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN DRIZZLE. THUS...THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL JUSTIFIED ACROSS
NORTHERN/INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY A FAR
SOUTH AS A WALTERBORO-NORTH CHARLESTON-MCCLELLANVILLE LINE. EVEN
IF A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS ANY TRACE AMOUNTS OF GLAZE
SHOULD ONLY OCCUR ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND STREET
SIGNS...GREATLY LIMITING ANY IMPACTS.

FARTHER SOUTH/EAST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. IN GENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLOW BUT STEADY DRYING TREND...SO POPS DECREASE
WITH TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FALL TO NEAR ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ASIDE FROM ANY PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS...FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE
TEMPERATURES SOME 35-40F COLDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY...ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST SOUTH CAROLINA LOCATIONS AND ACROSS SE
GEORGIA LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95...AND A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX...WILL DEFER DECISIONS
REGARDING FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS TO SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

DESPITE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-16 TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GA COAST.

SUNDAY...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN AHEAD OF A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 60S SUNDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.

LAKE WINDS...FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR INTENSIFIES. EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 20 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WAVES ON THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WILL BUILD TO 1-2 FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT KCHS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. OTHERWISE
VFR AT THE SITES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CRASH
RAPIDLY TO SUB-IFR BY 22-00Z AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH THE FRONT
WITH LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE TO FILLING IN BEHIND THE MAIN RAIN BAND
HAS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE. LIFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY AT KCHS. GUSTY
WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BOTH IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND IN THE POST-FRONTAL COLD SECTOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY PM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...NASTY SEA FOG WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE CHILLY
SHELF WATERS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD/DENSE SEA FOG WILL OCCUR OVER
THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROVIDE LONGER PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS.
WILL EXTEND THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 2 PM...ALTHOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE REMOVED PRIOR
TO THAT GIVEN THE LESS THAN IDEAL TRAJECTORY STRUCTURE THAT FAR
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS WILL
PERSIST WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
ENSUES. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURES RISES WILL SUPPORT GALES FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES
WILL OCCUR. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS...ROUGHLY BEYOND 40 NM...WHERE CONTRAFLOW ALONG THE
WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST. THE GALE
WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THESE WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR THE OTHER NEARSHORE
ZONES...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW GALE FORCE...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE
WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FRIDAY...AND ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS
WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE
LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS...BUT AN
OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 051128
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
628 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE SUNRISE UPDATE...INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR MUCH
OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE GOING TO BE QUITE DRAMATIC...WHICH IS LIKELY
UNDERSTATING WHAT THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WILL
EXPERIENCE AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MIX OUT
BY MID-MORNING AS VERTICAL MIXING INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSION...PERIODS OF INSOLATION AND A 1-2C INCREASE IN 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY...IF NOT A
BIT WARMER IF CLOUDS MIX OUT QUICK ENOUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID
80S LOOK REASONABLE FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE INFLUENCES FROM THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL NOT BE FACTOR.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD SUPPRESS OR AT LEAST
SEVERELY DELAY THE INLAND PENETRATION OF THE RESULT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE CHILLY SHELF
WATERS.

MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODELS AND CURRENT RADAR DATA SUGGEST THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE
IS ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE...SO VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRE-
FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ITSELF. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES BY MID-AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST TO
THE COAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. POPS
WILL GENERALLY BE CAPPED AT 50-70 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS THE FRONT MOVES IN AND RAIN BEGINS TO
FALL SO HAVE TRIED TO TIME THESE THERMAL FALLS TO REFLECT THE
EXPECTED TIMING OF THE BOTH THE FRONT AND ONSET OF RAIN.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT
ITSELF...SO A CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL AREAS.
THERE IS NO RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GUSTS
COULD APPROACH 25-30 MPH AT TIMES...SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...BUT
MIXING PROFILES OVER LAKE MOULTRIE WILL BE POOR AS WARM AIR FLOWS
OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS. THIS WILL YIELD ABSOLUTELY STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED WITHIN THE THICK MARINE LAYER. THE
DEGREE OF GUSTINESS WILL EVEN BE SUBDUED ALONG THE LAKESHORE AS A
ROBUST LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY...WHICH WILL TEND TO
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST-EAST THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE BULK OF THE
MEASURABLE RAINS WILL BE OFFSHORE 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY RAIN BAND...LOW CEILINGS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL FILL IN AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF
DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES AFTER 4-5 AM. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS
SHOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SCOURING OUT BY THIS TIME...DEEP
MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE. THIS OPENS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF SAINT GEORGE-
RIDGEVILLE-HUGER-SHULERVILLE LINE. WITH ONLY MARGINALLY COLD
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING RIGHT AT FREEZING...
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM. HOWEVER...A VERY LIGHT
GLACE ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES...METAL OBJECTS AS WELL
AS SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GROUND CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OTHERWISE...WHICH INCLUDES NON-ELEVATED ROADWAYS. GIVEN THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS EVENT...THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. THE RISK FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL SURGE SOUTH AFTER
SUNRISE AS SUBFREEZING WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ADVECT SOUTH.

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER-MID
40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ONE COULD ARGUE
THAT A FREEZE WARNING IS NEEDED FOR PARTS OF DORCHESTER AND
BERKELEY COUNTIES NOW THAT ITS BEYOND 1 MARCH AND THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE
FREEZING LINE AND CONSIDERING A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND
WIDESPREAD FREEZE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...A FREEZE WARNING WILL
NOT BE ISSUED.

FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS COMPARED
WITH RECENT RUNS. THUS...EVEN AS THE COLDEST AIR FEATURING TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING AND WET BULB TEMPS JUST BELOW FREEZING SPREADS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS BETWEEN THE EDISTO RIVER/INTERSTATE 26 AND THE
SANTEE RIVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW APPEARS BARELY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN DRIZZLE. THUS...THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL JUSTIFIED ACROSS
NORTHERN/INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY A FAR
SOUTH AS A WALTERBORO-NORTH CHARLESTON-MCCLELLANVILLE LINE. EVEN
IF A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS ANY TRACE AMOUNTS OF GLAZE
SHOULD ONLY OCCUR ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND STREET
SIGNS...GREATLY LIMITING ANY IMPACTS.

FARTHER SOUTH/EAST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. IN GENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLOW BUT STEADY DRYING TREND...SO POPS DECREASE
WITH TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FALL TO NEAR ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ASIDE FROM ANY PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS...FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE
TEMPERATURES SOME 35-40F COLDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY...ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST SOUTH CAROLINA LOCATIONS AND ACROSS SE
GEORGIA LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95...AND A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX...WILL DEFER DECISIONS
REGARDING FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS TO SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

DESPITE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-16 TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GA COAST.

SUNDAY...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN AHEAD OF A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 60S SUNDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.

LAKE WINDS...FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR INTENSIFIES. EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 20 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WAVES ON THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WILL BUILD TO 1-2 FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT KCHS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. OTHERWISE
VFR AT THE SITES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CRASH
RAPIDLY TO SUB-IFR BY 22-00Z AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH THE FRONT
WITH LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE TO FILLING IN BEHIND THE MAIN RAIN BAND
HAS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE. LIFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY AT KCHS. GUSTY
WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BOTH IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND IN THE POST-FRONTAL COLD SECTOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY PM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...NASTY SEA FOG WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE CHILLY
SHELF WATERS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD/DENSE SEA FOG WILL OCCUR OVER
THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROVIDE LONGER PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS.
WILL EXTEND THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 2 PM...ALTHOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE REMOVED PRIOR
TO THAT GIVEN THE LESS THAN IDEAL TRAJECTORY STRUCTURE THAT FAR
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS WILL
PERSIST WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
ENSUES. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURES RISES WILL SUPPORT GALES FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES
WILL OCCUR. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS...ROUGHLY BEYOND 40 NM...WHERE CONTRAFLOW ALONG THE
WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST. THE GALE
WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THESE WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR THE OTHER NEARSHORE
ZONES...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW GALE FORCE...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE
WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FRIDAY...AND ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS
WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE
LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS...BUT AN
OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 051128
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
628 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE SUNRISE UPDATE...INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR MUCH
OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE GOING TO BE QUITE DRAMATIC...WHICH IS LIKELY
UNDERSTATING WHAT THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WILL
EXPERIENCE AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MIX OUT
BY MID-MORNING AS VERTICAL MIXING INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSION...PERIODS OF INSOLATION AND A 1-2C INCREASE IN 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY...IF NOT A
BIT WARMER IF CLOUDS MIX OUT QUICK ENOUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID
80S LOOK REASONABLE FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE INFLUENCES FROM THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL NOT BE FACTOR.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD SUPPRESS OR AT LEAST
SEVERELY DELAY THE INLAND PENETRATION OF THE RESULT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE CHILLY SHELF
WATERS.

MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODELS AND CURRENT RADAR DATA SUGGEST THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE
IS ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE...SO VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRE-
FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ITSELF. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES BY MID-AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST TO
THE COAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. POPS
WILL GENERALLY BE CAPPED AT 50-70 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS THE FRONT MOVES IN AND RAIN BEGINS TO
FALL SO HAVE TRIED TO TIME THESE THERMAL FALLS TO REFLECT THE
EXPECTED TIMING OF THE BOTH THE FRONT AND ONSET OF RAIN.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT
ITSELF...SO A CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL AREAS.
THERE IS NO RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GUSTS
COULD APPROACH 25-30 MPH AT TIMES...SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...BUT
MIXING PROFILES OVER LAKE MOULTRIE WILL BE POOR AS WARM AIR FLOWS
OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS. THIS WILL YIELD ABSOLUTELY STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED WITHIN THE THICK MARINE LAYER. THE
DEGREE OF GUSTINESS WILL EVEN BE SUBDUED ALONG THE LAKESHORE AS A
ROBUST LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY...WHICH WILL TEND TO
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST-EAST THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE BULK OF THE
MEASURABLE RAINS WILL BE OFFSHORE 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY RAIN BAND...LOW CEILINGS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL FILL IN AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF
DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES AFTER 4-5 AM. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS
SHOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SCOURING OUT BY THIS TIME...DEEP
MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE. THIS OPENS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF SAINT GEORGE-
RIDGEVILLE-HUGER-SHULERVILLE LINE. WITH ONLY MARGINALLY COLD
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING RIGHT AT FREEZING...
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM. HOWEVER...A VERY LIGHT
GLACE ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES...METAL OBJECTS AS WELL
AS SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GROUND CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OTHERWISE...WHICH INCLUDES NON-ELEVATED ROADWAYS. GIVEN THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS EVENT...THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. THE RISK FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL SURGE SOUTH AFTER
SUNRISE AS SUBFREEZING WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ADVECT SOUTH.

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER-MID
40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ONE COULD ARGUE
THAT A FREEZE WARNING IS NEEDED FOR PARTS OF DORCHESTER AND
BERKELEY COUNTIES NOW THAT ITS BEYOND 1 MARCH AND THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE
FREEZING LINE AND CONSIDERING A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND
WIDESPREAD FREEZE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...A FREEZE WARNING WILL
NOT BE ISSUED.

FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS COMPARED
WITH RECENT RUNS. THUS...EVEN AS THE COLDEST AIR FEATURING TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING AND WET BULB TEMPS JUST BELOW FREEZING SPREADS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS BETWEEN THE EDISTO RIVER/INTERSTATE 26 AND THE
SANTEE RIVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW APPEARS BARELY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN DRIZZLE. THUS...THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL JUSTIFIED ACROSS
NORTHERN/INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY A FAR
SOUTH AS A WALTERBORO-NORTH CHARLESTON-MCCLELLANVILLE LINE. EVEN
IF A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS ANY TRACE AMOUNTS OF GLAZE
SHOULD ONLY OCCUR ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND STREET
SIGNS...GREATLY LIMITING ANY IMPACTS.

FARTHER SOUTH/EAST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. IN GENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLOW BUT STEADY DRYING TREND...SO POPS DECREASE
WITH TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FALL TO NEAR ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ASIDE FROM ANY PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS...FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE
TEMPERATURES SOME 35-40F COLDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY...ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST SOUTH CAROLINA LOCATIONS AND ACROSS SE
GEORGIA LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95...AND A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX...WILL DEFER DECISIONS
REGARDING FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS TO SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

DESPITE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-16 TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GA COAST.

SUNDAY...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN AHEAD OF A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 60S SUNDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.

LAKE WINDS...FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR INTENSIFIES. EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 20 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WAVES ON THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WILL BUILD TO 1-2 FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT KCHS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. OTHERWISE
VFR AT THE SITES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CRASH
RAPIDLY TO SUB-IFR BY 22-00Z AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH THE FRONT
WITH LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE TO FILLING IN BEHIND THE MAIN RAIN BAND
HAS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE. LIFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY AT KCHS. GUSTY
WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BOTH IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND IN THE POST-FRONTAL COLD SECTOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY PM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...NASTY SEA FOG WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE CHILLY
SHELF WATERS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD/DENSE SEA FOG WILL OCCUR OVER
THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROVIDE LONGER PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS.
WILL EXTEND THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 2 PM...ALTHOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE REMOVED PRIOR
TO THAT GIVEN THE LESS THAN IDEAL TRAJECTORY STRUCTURE THAT FAR
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS WILL
PERSIST WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
ENSUES. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURES RISES WILL SUPPORT GALES FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES
WILL OCCUR. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS...ROUGHLY BEYOND 40 NM...WHERE CONTRAFLOW ALONG THE
WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST. THE GALE
WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THESE WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR THE OTHER NEARSHORE
ZONES...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW GALE FORCE...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE
WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FRIDAY...AND ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS
WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE
LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS...BUT AN
OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 051128
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
628 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE SUNRISE UPDATE...INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR MUCH
OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE GOING TO BE QUITE DRAMATIC...WHICH IS LIKELY
UNDERSTATING WHAT THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WILL
EXPERIENCE AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MIX OUT
BY MID-MORNING AS VERTICAL MIXING INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSION...PERIODS OF INSOLATION AND A 1-2C INCREASE IN 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY...IF NOT A
BIT WARMER IF CLOUDS MIX OUT QUICK ENOUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID
80S LOOK REASONABLE FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE INFLUENCES FROM THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL NOT BE FACTOR.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD SUPPRESS OR AT LEAST
SEVERELY DELAY THE INLAND PENETRATION OF THE RESULT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE CHILLY SHELF
WATERS.

MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODELS AND CURRENT RADAR DATA SUGGEST THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE
IS ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE...SO VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRE-
FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ITSELF. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES BY MID-AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST TO
THE COAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. POPS
WILL GENERALLY BE CAPPED AT 50-70 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS THE FRONT MOVES IN AND RAIN BEGINS TO
FALL SO HAVE TRIED TO TIME THESE THERMAL FALLS TO REFLECT THE
EXPECTED TIMING OF THE BOTH THE FRONT AND ONSET OF RAIN.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT
ITSELF...SO A CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL AREAS.
THERE IS NO RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GUSTS
COULD APPROACH 25-30 MPH AT TIMES...SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...BUT
MIXING PROFILES OVER LAKE MOULTRIE WILL BE POOR AS WARM AIR FLOWS
OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS. THIS WILL YIELD ABSOLUTELY STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED WITHIN THE THICK MARINE LAYER. THE
DEGREE OF GUSTINESS WILL EVEN BE SUBDUED ALONG THE LAKESHORE AS A
ROBUST LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY...WHICH WILL TEND TO
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST-EAST THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE BULK OF THE
MEASURABLE RAINS WILL BE OFFSHORE 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY RAIN BAND...LOW CEILINGS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL FILL IN AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF
DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES AFTER 4-5 AM. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS
SHOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SCOURING OUT BY THIS TIME...DEEP
MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE. THIS OPENS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF SAINT GEORGE-
RIDGEVILLE-HUGER-SHULERVILLE LINE. WITH ONLY MARGINALLY COLD
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING RIGHT AT FREEZING...
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM. HOWEVER...A VERY LIGHT
GLACE ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES...METAL OBJECTS AS WELL
AS SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GROUND CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OTHERWISE...WHICH INCLUDES NON-ELEVATED ROADWAYS. GIVEN THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS EVENT...THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. THE RISK FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL SURGE SOUTH AFTER
SUNRISE AS SUBFREEZING WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ADVECT SOUTH.

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER-MID
40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ONE COULD ARGUE
THAT A FREEZE WARNING IS NEEDED FOR PARTS OF DORCHESTER AND
BERKELEY COUNTIES NOW THAT ITS BEYOND 1 MARCH AND THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE
FREEZING LINE AND CONSIDERING A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND
WIDESPREAD FREEZE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...A FREEZE WARNING WILL
NOT BE ISSUED.

FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS COMPARED
WITH RECENT RUNS. THUS...EVEN AS THE COLDEST AIR FEATURING TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING AND WET BULB TEMPS JUST BELOW FREEZING SPREADS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS BETWEEN THE EDISTO RIVER/INTERSTATE 26 AND THE
SANTEE RIVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW APPEARS BARELY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN DRIZZLE. THUS...THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL JUSTIFIED ACROSS
NORTHERN/INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY A FAR
SOUTH AS A WALTERBORO-NORTH CHARLESTON-MCCLELLANVILLE LINE. EVEN
IF A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS ANY TRACE AMOUNTS OF GLAZE
SHOULD ONLY OCCUR ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND STREET
SIGNS...GREATLY LIMITING ANY IMPACTS.

FARTHER SOUTH/EAST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. IN GENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLOW BUT STEADY DRYING TREND...SO POPS DECREASE
WITH TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FALL TO NEAR ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ASIDE FROM ANY PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS...FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE
TEMPERATURES SOME 35-40F COLDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY...ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST SOUTH CAROLINA LOCATIONS AND ACROSS SE
GEORGIA LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95...AND A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX...WILL DEFER DECISIONS
REGARDING FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS TO SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

DESPITE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-16 TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GA COAST.

SUNDAY...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN AHEAD OF A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 60S SUNDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.

LAKE WINDS...FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR INTENSIFIES. EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 20 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WAVES ON THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WILL BUILD TO 1-2 FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT KCHS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. OTHERWISE
VFR AT THE SITES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CRASH
RAPIDLY TO SUB-IFR BY 22-00Z AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH THE FRONT
WITH LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE TO FILLING IN BEHIND THE MAIN RAIN BAND
HAS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE. LIFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY AT KCHS. GUSTY
WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BOTH IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND IN THE POST-FRONTAL COLD SECTOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY PM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...NASTY SEA FOG WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE CHILLY
SHELF WATERS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD/DENSE SEA FOG WILL OCCUR OVER
THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROVIDE LONGER PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS.
WILL EXTEND THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 2 PM...ALTHOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE REMOVED PRIOR
TO THAT GIVEN THE LESS THAN IDEAL TRAJECTORY STRUCTURE THAT FAR
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS WILL
PERSIST WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
ENSUES. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURES RISES WILL SUPPORT GALES FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES
WILL OCCUR. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS...ROUGHLY BEYOND 40 NM...WHERE CONTRAFLOW ALONG THE
WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST. THE GALE
WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THESE WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR THE OTHER NEARSHORE
ZONES...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW GALE FORCE...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE
WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FRIDAY...AND ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS
WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE
LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS...BUT AN
OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 051128
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
628 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE SUNRISE UPDATE...INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR MUCH
OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE GOING TO BE QUITE DRAMATIC...WHICH IS LIKELY
UNDERSTATING WHAT THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WILL
EXPERIENCE AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MIX OUT
BY MID-MORNING AS VERTICAL MIXING INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSION...PERIODS OF INSOLATION AND A 1-2C INCREASE IN 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY...IF NOT A
BIT WARMER IF CLOUDS MIX OUT QUICK ENOUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID
80S LOOK REASONABLE FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE INFLUENCES FROM THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL NOT BE FACTOR.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD SUPPRESS OR AT LEAST
SEVERELY DELAY THE INLAND PENETRATION OF THE RESULT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE CHILLY SHELF
WATERS.

MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODELS AND CURRENT RADAR DATA SUGGEST THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE
IS ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE...SO VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRE-
FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ITSELF. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES BY MID-AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST TO
THE COAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. POPS
WILL GENERALLY BE CAPPED AT 50-70 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS THE FRONT MOVES IN AND RAIN BEGINS TO
FALL SO HAVE TRIED TO TIME THESE THERMAL FALLS TO REFLECT THE
EXPECTED TIMING OF THE BOTH THE FRONT AND ONSET OF RAIN.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT
ITSELF...SO A CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL AREAS.
THERE IS NO RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GUSTS
COULD APPROACH 25-30 MPH AT TIMES...SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...BUT
MIXING PROFILES OVER LAKE MOULTRIE WILL BE POOR AS WARM AIR FLOWS
OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS. THIS WILL YIELD ABSOLUTELY STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED WITHIN THE THICK MARINE LAYER. THE
DEGREE OF GUSTINESS WILL EVEN BE SUBDUED ALONG THE LAKESHORE AS A
ROBUST LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY...WHICH WILL TEND TO
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST-EAST THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE BULK OF THE
MEASURABLE RAINS WILL BE OFFSHORE 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY RAIN BAND...LOW CEILINGS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL FILL IN AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF
DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES AFTER 4-5 AM. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS
SHOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SCOURING OUT BY THIS TIME...DEEP
MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE. THIS OPENS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF SAINT GEORGE-
RIDGEVILLE-HUGER-SHULERVILLE LINE. WITH ONLY MARGINALLY COLD
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING RIGHT AT FREEZING...
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM. HOWEVER...A VERY LIGHT
GLACE ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES...METAL OBJECTS AS WELL
AS SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GROUND CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OTHERWISE...WHICH INCLUDES NON-ELEVATED ROADWAYS. GIVEN THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS EVENT...THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. THE RISK FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL SURGE SOUTH AFTER
SUNRISE AS SUBFREEZING WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ADVECT SOUTH.

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER-MID
40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ONE COULD ARGUE
THAT A FREEZE WARNING IS NEEDED FOR PARTS OF DORCHESTER AND
BERKELEY COUNTIES NOW THAT ITS BEYOND 1 MARCH AND THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE
FREEZING LINE AND CONSIDERING A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND
WIDESPREAD FREEZE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...A FREEZE WARNING WILL
NOT BE ISSUED.

FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS COMPARED
WITH RECENT RUNS. THUS...EVEN AS THE COLDEST AIR FEATURING TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING AND WET BULB TEMPS JUST BELOW FREEZING SPREADS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS BETWEEN THE EDISTO RIVER/INTERSTATE 26 AND THE
SANTEE RIVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW APPEARS BARELY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN DRIZZLE. THUS...THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL JUSTIFIED ACROSS
NORTHERN/INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY A FAR
SOUTH AS A WALTERBORO-NORTH CHARLESTON-MCCLELLANVILLE LINE. EVEN
IF A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS ANY TRACE AMOUNTS OF GLAZE
SHOULD ONLY OCCUR ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND STREET
SIGNS...GREATLY LIMITING ANY IMPACTS.

FARTHER SOUTH/EAST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. IN GENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLOW BUT STEADY DRYING TREND...SO POPS DECREASE
WITH TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FALL TO NEAR ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ASIDE FROM ANY PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS...FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE
TEMPERATURES SOME 35-40F COLDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY...ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST SOUTH CAROLINA LOCATIONS AND ACROSS SE
GEORGIA LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95...AND A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX...WILL DEFER DECISIONS
REGARDING FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS TO SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

DESPITE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-16 TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GA COAST.

SUNDAY...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN AHEAD OF A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 60S SUNDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.

LAKE WINDS...FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR INTENSIFIES. EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 20 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WAVES ON THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WILL BUILD TO 1-2 FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT KCHS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. OTHERWISE
VFR AT THE SITES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CRASH
RAPIDLY TO SUB-IFR BY 22-00Z AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH THE FRONT
WITH LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE TO FILLING IN BEHIND THE MAIN RAIN BAND
HAS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE. LIFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY AT KCHS. GUSTY
WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BOTH IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND IN THE POST-FRONTAL COLD SECTOR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY PM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...NASTY SEA FOG WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE CHILLY
SHELF WATERS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD/DENSE SEA FOG WILL OCCUR OVER
THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROVIDE LONGER PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS.
WILL EXTEND THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 2 PM...ALTHOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE REMOVED PRIOR
TO THAT GIVEN THE LESS THAN IDEAL TRAJECTORY STRUCTURE THAT FAR
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS WILL
PERSIST WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
ENSUES. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURES RISES WILL SUPPORT GALES FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES
WILL OCCUR. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS...ROUGHLY BEYOND 40 NM...WHERE CONTRAFLOW ALONG THE
WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST. THE GALE
WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THESE WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR THE OTHER NEARSHORE
ZONES...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW GALE FORCE...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE
WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FRIDAY...AND ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS
WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE
LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS...BUT AN
OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCAE 051119
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
619 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE. HOWEVER...WE WILL GET OFF TO A WARM
START AND THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST MOVING THE COLDER AIR
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE. THE NAM
INDICATED WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE-BASED
LI/S NEAR -2 IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION EARLY. BASED ON MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH H85
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BELIEVE GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. THE
RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT MIXING...BUT STILL BELIEVE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL AND GFS LAMP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY BUT BASED ON THE FORECAST OF
WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM BELIEVE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW.

THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE RISK OF BLACK ICE ALSO APPEARS LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AND COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM COLD AIR MASS
WE USED THE COLDER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO COULD SEE WIND
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE
EVENING WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY 04Z
FRIDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 051119
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
619 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE. HOWEVER...WE WILL GET OFF TO A WARM
START AND THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST MOVING THE COLDER AIR
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE. THE NAM
INDICATED WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE-BASED
LI/S NEAR -2 IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION EARLY. BASED ON MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH H85
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BELIEVE GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. THE
RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT MIXING...BUT STILL BELIEVE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL AND GFS LAMP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY BUT BASED ON THE FORECAST OF
WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM BELIEVE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW.

THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE RISK OF BLACK ICE ALSO APPEARS LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AND COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM COLD AIR MASS
WE USED THE COLDER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO COULD SEE WIND
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE
EVENING WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY 04Z
FRIDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 051119
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
619 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE. HOWEVER...WE WILL GET OFF TO A WARM
START AND THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST MOVING THE COLDER AIR
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE. THE NAM
INDICATED WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE-BASED
LI/S NEAR -2 IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION EARLY. BASED ON MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH H85
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BELIEVE GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. THE
RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT MIXING...BUT STILL BELIEVE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL AND GFS LAMP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY BUT BASED ON THE FORECAST OF
WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM BELIEVE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW.

THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE RISK OF BLACK ICE ALSO APPEARS LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AND COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM COLD AIR MASS
WE USED THE COLDER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO COULD SEE WIND
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE
EVENING WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY 04Z
FRIDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 051119
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
619 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE. HOWEVER...WE WILL GET OFF TO A WARM
START AND THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST MOVING THE COLDER AIR
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE. THE NAM
INDICATED WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE-BASED
LI/S NEAR -2 IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION EARLY. BASED ON MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH H85
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BELIEVE GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. THE
RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT MIXING...BUT STILL BELIEVE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL AND GFS LAMP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY BUT BASED ON THE FORECAST OF
WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM BELIEVE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW.

THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE RISK OF BLACK ICE ALSO APPEARS LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AND COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM COLD AIR MASS
WE USED THE COLDER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO COULD SEE WIND
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE
EVENING WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY 04Z
FRIDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 050933
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
433 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE. HOWEVER...WE WILL GET OFF TO A WARM
START AND THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST MOVING THE COLDER AIR
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE. THE NAM
INDICATED WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE-BASED
LI/S NEAR -2 IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION EARLY. BASED ON MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH H85
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BELIEVE GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. THE
RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT MIXING...BUT STILL BELIEVE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL AND GFS LAMP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY BUT BASED ON THE FORECAST OF
WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM BELIEVE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW.

THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE RISK OF BLACK ICE ALSO APPEARS LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AND COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM COLD AIR MASS
WE USED THE COLDER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. LATEST CAE VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATING 60 KTS AT 4
KFT...AND 35 KTS AT 1 KFT...SO COULD SEE A WIND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS
AROUND SUNRISE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 050933
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
433 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE. HOWEVER...WE WILL GET OFF TO A WARM
START AND THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST MOVING THE COLDER AIR
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE. THE NAM
INDICATED WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE-BASED
LI/S NEAR -2 IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION EARLY. BASED ON MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH H85
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BELIEVE GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. THE
RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT MIXING...BUT STILL BELIEVE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL AND GFS LAMP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY BUT BASED ON THE FORECAST OF
WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM BELIEVE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW.

THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE RISK OF BLACK ICE ALSO APPEARS LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AND COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM COLD AIR MASS
WE USED THE COLDER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. LATEST CAE VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATING 60 KTS AT 4
KFT...AND 35 KTS AT 1 KFT...SO COULD SEE A WIND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS
AROUND SUNRISE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 050933
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
433 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE. HOWEVER...WE WILL GET OFF TO A WARM
START AND THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST MOVING THE COLDER AIR
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE. THE NAM
INDICATED WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE-BASED
LI/S NEAR -2 IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION EARLY. BASED ON MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH H85
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BELIEVE GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. THE
RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT MIXING...BUT STILL BELIEVE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL AND GFS LAMP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY BUT BASED ON THE FORECAST OF
WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM BELIEVE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW.

THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE RISK OF BLACK ICE ALSO APPEARS LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AND COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM COLD AIR MASS
WE USED THE COLDER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. LATEST CAE VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATING 60 KTS AT 4
KFT...AND 35 KTS AT 1 KFT...SO COULD SEE A WIND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS
AROUND SUNRISE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 050933
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
433 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE. HOWEVER...WE WILL GET OFF TO A WARM
START AND THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST MOVING THE COLDER AIR
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE. THE NAM
INDICATED WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE-BASED
LI/S NEAR -2 IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION EARLY. BASED ON MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH H85
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BELIEVE GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. THE
RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT MIXING...BUT STILL BELIEVE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL AND GFS LAMP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY BUT BASED ON THE FORECAST OF
WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM BELIEVE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW.

THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE RISK OF BLACK ICE ALSO APPEARS LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AND COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM COLD AIR MASS
WE USED THE COLDER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. LATEST CAE VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATING 60 KTS AT 4
KFT...AND 35 KTS AT 1 KFT...SO COULD SEE A WIND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS
AROUND SUNRISE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 050933
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
433 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE. HOWEVER...WE WILL GET OFF TO A WARM
START AND THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST MOVING THE COLDER AIR
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE. THE NAM
INDICATED WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE-BASED
LI/S NEAR -2 IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION EARLY. BASED ON MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH H85
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BELIEVE GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. THE
RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT MIXING...BUT STILL BELIEVE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL AND GFS LAMP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY BUT BASED ON THE FORECAST OF
WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM BELIEVE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW.

THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE RISK OF BLACK ICE ALSO APPEARS LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AND COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM COLD AIR MASS
WE USED THE COLDER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. LATEST CAE VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATING 60 KTS AT 4
KFT...AND 35 KTS AT 1 KFT...SO COULD SEE A WIND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS
AROUND SUNRISE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 050933
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
433 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE. HOWEVER...WE WILL GET OFF TO A WARM
START AND THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST MOVING THE COLDER AIR
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE. THE NAM
INDICATED WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE-BASED
LI/S NEAR -2 IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION EARLY. BASED ON MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH H85
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BELIEVE GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. THE
RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT MIXING...BUT STILL BELIEVE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL AND GFS LAMP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY BUT BASED ON THE FORECAST OF
WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM BELIEVE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW.

THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE RISK OF BLACK ICE ALSO APPEARS LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AND COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM COLD AIR MASS
WE USED THE COLDER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. LATEST CAE VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATING 60 KTS AT 4
KFT...AND 35 KTS AT 1 KFT...SO COULD SEE A WIND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS
AROUND SUNRISE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 050903
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
403 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE GOING TO BE QUITE DRAMATIC...WHICH IS LIKELY
UNDERSTATING WHAT THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WILL
EXPERIENCE AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING.

THROUGH SUNRISE...UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE. COASTAL
WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE WIDESPREAD SEA FOG CONTINUES
TO PLAGUE THE COASTAL WATERS...SOME OF WHICH IS OCCASIONALLY
BRUSHING COASTAL COMMUNITIES...MAINLY ACROSS CHARLESTON COUNTY
WHERE LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG
TO PUSH TO THE COAST. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN BOTH THE H3R
AND RAP FOG FIELDS THAT THE SEA FOG COULD REACH AS FAR INLAND AS
HIGHWAY 17 IN CHARLESTON COUNTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS QUITE
LOW GIVEN THE PROJECTED CONTINUATION OF SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
SUNRISE. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...HOWEVER. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE REISSUED TO
ADDRESS THE SEA FOG LOWERING VSBYS TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

FOR TODAY...MORNING LOW CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING AS VERTICAL MIXING INTENSIFIES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSION...PERIODS OF INSOLATION AND A 1-2C INCREASE IN 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY...IF NOT A
BIT WARMER IF CLOUDS MIX OUT QUICK ENOUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID
80S LOOK REASONABLE FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE INFLUENCES FROM THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL NOT BE FACTOR.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD SUPPRESS OR AT LEAST
SEVERELY DELAY THE INLAND PENETRATION OF THE RESULT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE CHILLY SHELF
WATERS.

MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODELS AND CURRENT RADAR DATA SUGGEST THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE
IS ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE...SO VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRE-
FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ITSELF. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES BY MID-AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST TO
THE COAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. POPS
WILL GENERALLY BE CAPPED AT 50-70 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS THE FRONT MOVES IN AND RAIN BEGINS TO
FALL SO HAVE TRIED TO TIME THESE THERMAL FALLS TO REFLECT THE
EXPECTED TIMING OF THE BOTH THE FRONT AND ONSET OF RAIN.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT
ITSELF...SO A CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL AREAS.
THERE IS NO RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GUSTS
COULD APPROACH 25-30 MPH AT TIMES...SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...BUT
MIXING PROFILES OVER LAKE MOULTRIE WILL BE POOR AS WARM AIR FLOWS
OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS. THIS WILL YIELD ABSOLUTELY STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED WITHIN THE THICK MARINE LAYER. THE
DEGREE OF GUSTINESS WILL EVEN BE SUBDUED ALONG THE LAKESHORE AS A
ROBUST LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY...WHICH WILL TEND TO
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST-EAST THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE BULK OF THE
MEASURABLE RAINS WILL BE OFFSHORE 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY RAIN BAND...LOW CEILINGS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL FILL IN AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF
DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES AFTER 4-5 AM. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS
SHOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SCOURING OUT BY THIS TIME...DEEP
MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE. THIS OPENS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF SAINT GEORGE-
RIDGEVILLE-HUGER-SHULERVILLE LINE. WITH ONLY MARGINALLY COLD
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING RIGHT AT FREEZING...
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM. HOWEVER...A VERY LIGHT
GLACE ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES...METAL OBJECTS AS WELL
AS SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GROUND CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OTHERWISE...WHICH INCLUDES NON-ELEVATED ROADWAYS. GIVEN THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS EVENT...THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. THE RISK FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL SURGE SOUTH AFTER
SUNRISE AS SUBFREEZING WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ADVECT SOUTH.

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER-MID
40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ONE COULD ARGUE
THAT A FREEZE WARNING IS NEEDED FOR PARTS OF DORCHESTER AND
BERKELEY COUNTIES NOW THAT ITS BEYOND 1 MARCH AND THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE
FREEZING LINE AND CONSIDERING A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND
WIDESPREAD FREEZE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...A FREEZE WARNING WILL
NOT BE ISSUED.

FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS COMPARED
WITH RECENT RUNS. THUS...EVEN AS THE COLDEST AIR FEATURING TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING AND WET BULB TEMPS JUST BELOW FREEZING SPREADS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS BETWEEN THE EDISTO RIVER/INTERSTATE 26 AND THE
SANTEE RIVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW APPEARS BARELY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN DRIZZLE. THUS...THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL JUSTIFIED ACROSS
NORTHERN/INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY A FAR
SOUTH AS A WALTERBORO-NORTH CHARLESTON-MCCLELLANVILLE LINE. EVEN
IF A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS ANY TRACE AMOUNTS OF GLAZE
SHOULD ONLY OCCUR ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND STREET
SIGNS...GREATLY LIMITING ANY IMPACTS.

FARTHER SOUTH/EAST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. IN GENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLOW BUT STEADY DRYING TREND...SO POPS DECREASE
WITH TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FALL TO NEAR ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ASIDE FROM ANY PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS...FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE
TEMPERATURES SOME 35-40F COLDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY...ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST SOUTH CAROLINA LOCATIONS AND ACROSS SE
GEORGIA LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95...AND A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX...WILL DEFER DECISIONS
REGARDING FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS TO SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

DESPITE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-16 TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GA COAST.

SUNDAY...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN AHEAD OF A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 60S SUNDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.

LAKE WINDS...FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR INTENSIFIES. EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 20 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WAVES ON THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WILL BUILD TO 1-2 FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WATCHING LOW CLOUDS SPREADING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THESE ARE ON TARGET TO IMPACT KSAV 08-9Z WITH CIGS DROPPING TO
LOW-END MVFR AND POSSIBLY HIGH END IFR. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL NOT REACH KCHS ATTM AND WILL TREND THE 06Z TAFS IN
THAT DIRECTION. AT KSAV WILL SHOW OVC012 TEMPO OVC008 08-12Z TO
COVER. VFR AT KCHS. FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER THAT IS IN PLACE. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ WILL
BE AN ISSUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE WITH AS MUCH AS 40
KT OF WIND AT 1500 FT OFF THE DECK. VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
CIGS/VSBYS CRASH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AND WILL TREND THE TAFS IN THAT DIRECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY PM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...NASTY SEA FOG WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE CHILLY
SHELF WATERS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD/DENSE SEA FOG WILL OCCUR OVER
THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROVIDE LONGER PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS.
WILL EXTEND THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 2 PM...ALTHOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE REMOVED PRIOR
TO THAT GIVEN THE LESS THAN IDEAL TRAJECTORY STRUCTURE THAT FAR
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS WILL
PERSIST WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
ENSUES. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURES RISES WILL SUPPORT GALES FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES
WILL OCCUR. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS...ROUGHLY BEYOND 40 NM...WHERE CONTRAFLOW ALONG THE
WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST. THE GALE
WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THESE WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR THE OTHER NEARSHORE
ZONES...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW GALE FORCE...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE
WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FRIDAY...AND ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS
WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE
LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS...BUT AN
OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 050903
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
403 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE GOING TO BE QUITE DRAMATIC...WHICH IS LIKELY
UNDERSTATING WHAT THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WILL
EXPERIENCE AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING.

THROUGH SUNRISE...UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE. COASTAL
WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE WIDESPREAD SEA FOG CONTINUES
TO PLAGUE THE COASTAL WATERS...SOME OF WHICH IS OCCASIONALLY
BRUSHING COASTAL COMMUNITIES...MAINLY ACROSS CHARLESTON COUNTY
WHERE LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG
TO PUSH TO THE COAST. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN BOTH THE H3R
AND RAP FOG FIELDS THAT THE SEA FOG COULD REACH AS FAR INLAND AS
HIGHWAY 17 IN CHARLESTON COUNTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS QUITE
LOW GIVEN THE PROJECTED CONTINUATION OF SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
SUNRISE. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...HOWEVER. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE REISSUED TO
ADDRESS THE SEA FOG LOWERING VSBYS TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

FOR TODAY...MORNING LOW CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING AS VERTICAL MIXING INTENSIFIES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSION...PERIODS OF INSOLATION AND A 1-2C INCREASE IN 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY...IF NOT A
BIT WARMER IF CLOUDS MIX OUT QUICK ENOUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID
80S LOOK REASONABLE FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE INFLUENCES FROM THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL NOT BE FACTOR.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD SUPPRESS OR AT LEAST
SEVERELY DELAY THE INLAND PENETRATION OF THE RESULT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE CHILLY SHELF
WATERS.

MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODELS AND CURRENT RADAR DATA SUGGEST THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE
IS ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE...SO VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRE-
FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ITSELF. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES BY MID-AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST TO
THE COAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. POPS
WILL GENERALLY BE CAPPED AT 50-70 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS THE FRONT MOVES IN AND RAIN BEGINS TO
FALL SO HAVE TRIED TO TIME THESE THERMAL FALLS TO REFLECT THE
EXPECTED TIMING OF THE BOTH THE FRONT AND ONSET OF RAIN.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT
ITSELF...SO A CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL AREAS.
THERE IS NO RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GUSTS
COULD APPROACH 25-30 MPH AT TIMES...SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...BUT
MIXING PROFILES OVER LAKE MOULTRIE WILL BE POOR AS WARM AIR FLOWS
OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS. THIS WILL YIELD ABSOLUTELY STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED WITHIN THE THICK MARINE LAYER. THE
DEGREE OF GUSTINESS WILL EVEN BE SUBDUED ALONG THE LAKESHORE AS A
ROBUST LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY...WHICH WILL TEND TO
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST-EAST THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE BULK OF THE
MEASURABLE RAINS WILL BE OFFSHORE 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY RAIN BAND...LOW CEILINGS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL FILL IN AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF
DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES AFTER 4-5 AM. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS
SHOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SCOURING OUT BY THIS TIME...DEEP
MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE. THIS OPENS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF SAINT GEORGE-
RIDGEVILLE-HUGER-SHULERVILLE LINE. WITH ONLY MARGINALLY COLD
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING RIGHT AT FREEZING...
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM. HOWEVER...A VERY LIGHT
GLACE ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES...METAL OBJECTS AS WELL
AS SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GROUND CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OTHERWISE...WHICH INCLUDES NON-ELEVATED ROADWAYS. GIVEN THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS EVENT...THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. THE RISK FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL SURGE SOUTH AFTER
SUNRISE AS SUBFREEZING WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ADVECT SOUTH.

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER-MID
40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ONE COULD ARGUE
THAT A FREEZE WARNING IS NEEDED FOR PARTS OF DORCHESTER AND
BERKELEY COUNTIES NOW THAT ITS BEYOND 1 MARCH AND THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE
FREEZING LINE AND CONSIDERING A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND
WIDESPREAD FREEZE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...A FREEZE WARNING WILL
NOT BE ISSUED.

FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS COMPARED
WITH RECENT RUNS. THUS...EVEN AS THE COLDEST AIR FEATURING TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING AND WET BULB TEMPS JUST BELOW FREEZING SPREADS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS BETWEEN THE EDISTO RIVER/INTERSTATE 26 AND THE
SANTEE RIVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW APPEARS BARELY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN DRIZZLE. THUS...THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL JUSTIFIED ACROSS
NORTHERN/INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY A FAR
SOUTH AS A WALTERBORO-NORTH CHARLESTON-MCCLELLANVILLE LINE. EVEN
IF A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS ANY TRACE AMOUNTS OF GLAZE
SHOULD ONLY OCCUR ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND STREET
SIGNS...GREATLY LIMITING ANY IMPACTS.

FARTHER SOUTH/EAST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. IN GENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLOW BUT STEADY DRYING TREND...SO POPS DECREASE
WITH TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FALL TO NEAR ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ASIDE FROM ANY PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS...FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE
TEMPERATURES SOME 35-40F COLDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY...ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST SOUTH CAROLINA LOCATIONS AND ACROSS SE
GEORGIA LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95...AND A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX...WILL DEFER DECISIONS
REGARDING FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS TO SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

DESPITE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-16 TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GA COAST.

SUNDAY...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN AHEAD OF A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 60S SUNDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.

LAKE WINDS...FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR INTENSIFIES. EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 20 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WAVES ON THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WILL BUILD TO 1-2 FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WATCHING LOW CLOUDS SPREADING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THESE ARE ON TARGET TO IMPACT KSAV 08-9Z WITH CIGS DROPPING TO
LOW-END MVFR AND POSSIBLY HIGH END IFR. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL NOT REACH KCHS ATTM AND WILL TREND THE 06Z TAFS IN
THAT DIRECTION. AT KSAV WILL SHOW OVC012 TEMPO OVC008 08-12Z TO
COVER. VFR AT KCHS. FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER THAT IS IN PLACE. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ WILL
BE AN ISSUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE WITH AS MUCH AS 40
KT OF WIND AT 1500 FT OFF THE DECK. VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
CIGS/VSBYS CRASH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AND WILL TREND THE TAFS IN THAT DIRECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY PM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...NASTY SEA FOG WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE CHILLY
SHELF WATERS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD/DENSE SEA FOG WILL OCCUR OVER
THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROVIDE LONGER PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS.
WILL EXTEND THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 2 PM...ALTHOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE REMOVED PRIOR
TO THAT GIVEN THE LESS THAN IDEAL TRAJECTORY STRUCTURE THAT FAR
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS WILL
PERSIST WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
ENSUES. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURES RISES WILL SUPPORT GALES FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES
WILL OCCUR. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS...ROUGHLY BEYOND 40 NM...WHERE CONTRAFLOW ALONG THE
WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST. THE GALE
WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THESE WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR THE OTHER NEARSHORE
ZONES...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW GALE FORCE...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE
WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FRIDAY...AND ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS
WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE
LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS...BUT AN
OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 050903
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
403 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE GOING TO BE QUITE DRAMATIC...WHICH IS LIKELY
UNDERSTATING WHAT THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WILL
EXPERIENCE AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING.

THROUGH SUNRISE...UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE. COASTAL
WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE WIDESPREAD SEA FOG CONTINUES
TO PLAGUE THE COASTAL WATERS...SOME OF WHICH IS OCCASIONALLY
BRUSHING COASTAL COMMUNITIES...MAINLY ACROSS CHARLESTON COUNTY
WHERE LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG
TO PUSH TO THE COAST. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN BOTH THE H3R
AND RAP FOG FIELDS THAT THE SEA FOG COULD REACH AS FAR INLAND AS
HIGHWAY 17 IN CHARLESTON COUNTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS QUITE
LOW GIVEN THE PROJECTED CONTINUATION OF SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
SUNRISE. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...HOWEVER. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE REISSUED TO
ADDRESS THE SEA FOG LOWERING VSBYS TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

FOR TODAY...MORNING LOW CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING AS VERTICAL MIXING INTENSIFIES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSION...PERIODS OF INSOLATION AND A 1-2C INCREASE IN 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY...IF NOT A
BIT WARMER IF CLOUDS MIX OUT QUICK ENOUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID
80S LOOK REASONABLE FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE INFLUENCES FROM THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL NOT BE FACTOR.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD SUPPRESS OR AT LEAST
SEVERELY DELAY THE INLAND PENETRATION OF THE RESULT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE CHILLY SHELF
WATERS.

MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODELS AND CURRENT RADAR DATA SUGGEST THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE
IS ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE...SO VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRE-
FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ITSELF. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES BY MID-AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST TO
THE COAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. POPS
WILL GENERALLY BE CAPPED AT 50-70 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS THE FRONT MOVES IN AND RAIN BEGINS TO
FALL SO HAVE TRIED TO TIME THESE THERMAL FALLS TO REFLECT THE
EXPECTED TIMING OF THE BOTH THE FRONT AND ONSET OF RAIN.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT
ITSELF...SO A CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL AREAS.
THERE IS NO RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GUSTS
COULD APPROACH 25-30 MPH AT TIMES...SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...BUT
MIXING PROFILES OVER LAKE MOULTRIE WILL BE POOR AS WARM AIR FLOWS
OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS. THIS WILL YIELD ABSOLUTELY STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED WITHIN THE THICK MARINE LAYER. THE
DEGREE OF GUSTINESS WILL EVEN BE SUBDUED ALONG THE LAKESHORE AS A
ROBUST LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY...WHICH WILL TEND TO
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST-EAST THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE BULK OF THE
MEASURABLE RAINS WILL BE OFFSHORE 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY RAIN BAND...LOW CEILINGS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL FILL IN AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF
DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES AFTER 4-5 AM. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS
SHOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SCOURING OUT BY THIS TIME...DEEP
MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE. THIS OPENS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF SAINT GEORGE-
RIDGEVILLE-HUGER-SHULERVILLE LINE. WITH ONLY MARGINALLY COLD
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING RIGHT AT FREEZING...
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM. HOWEVER...A VERY LIGHT
GLACE ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES...METAL OBJECTS AS WELL
AS SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GROUND CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OTHERWISE...WHICH INCLUDES NON-ELEVATED ROADWAYS. GIVEN THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS EVENT...THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. THE RISK FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL SURGE SOUTH AFTER
SUNRISE AS SUBFREEZING WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ADVECT SOUTH.

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER-MID
40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ONE COULD ARGUE
THAT A FREEZE WARNING IS NEEDED FOR PARTS OF DORCHESTER AND
BERKELEY COUNTIES NOW THAT ITS BEYOND 1 MARCH AND THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE
FREEZING LINE AND CONSIDERING A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND
WIDESPREAD FREEZE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...A FREEZE WARNING WILL
NOT BE ISSUED.

FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS COMPARED
WITH RECENT RUNS. THUS...EVEN AS THE COLDEST AIR FEATURING TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING AND WET BULB TEMPS JUST BELOW FREEZING SPREADS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS BETWEEN THE EDISTO RIVER/INTERSTATE 26 AND THE
SANTEE RIVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW APPEARS BARELY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN DRIZZLE. THUS...THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL JUSTIFIED ACROSS
NORTHERN/INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY A FAR
SOUTH AS A WALTERBORO-NORTH CHARLESTON-MCCLELLANVILLE LINE. EVEN
IF A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS ANY TRACE AMOUNTS OF GLAZE
SHOULD ONLY OCCUR ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND STREET
SIGNS...GREATLY LIMITING ANY IMPACTS.

FARTHER SOUTH/EAST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. IN GENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLOW BUT STEADY DRYING TREND...SO POPS DECREASE
WITH TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FALL TO NEAR ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ASIDE FROM ANY PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS...FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE
TEMPERATURES SOME 35-40F COLDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY...ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST SOUTH CAROLINA LOCATIONS AND ACROSS SE
GEORGIA LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95...AND A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX...WILL DEFER DECISIONS
REGARDING FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS TO SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

DESPITE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-16 TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GA COAST.

SUNDAY...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN AHEAD OF A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 60S SUNDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.

LAKE WINDS...FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR INTENSIFIES. EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 20 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WAVES ON THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WILL BUILD TO 1-2 FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WATCHING LOW CLOUDS SPREADING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THESE ARE ON TARGET TO IMPACT KSAV 08-9Z WITH CIGS DROPPING TO
LOW-END MVFR AND POSSIBLY HIGH END IFR. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL NOT REACH KCHS ATTM AND WILL TREND THE 06Z TAFS IN
THAT DIRECTION. AT KSAV WILL SHOW OVC012 TEMPO OVC008 08-12Z TO
COVER. VFR AT KCHS. FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER THAT IS IN PLACE. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ WILL
BE AN ISSUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE WITH AS MUCH AS 40
KT OF WIND AT 1500 FT OFF THE DECK. VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
CIGS/VSBYS CRASH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AND WILL TREND THE TAFS IN THAT DIRECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY PM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...NASTY SEA FOG WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE CHILLY
SHELF WATERS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD/DENSE SEA FOG WILL OCCUR OVER
THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROVIDE LONGER PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS.
WILL EXTEND THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 2 PM...ALTHOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE REMOVED PRIOR
TO THAT GIVEN THE LESS THAN IDEAL TRAJECTORY STRUCTURE THAT FAR
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS WILL
PERSIST WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
ENSUES. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURES RISES WILL SUPPORT GALES FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES
WILL OCCUR. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS...ROUGHLY BEYOND 40 NM...WHERE CONTRAFLOW ALONG THE
WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST. THE GALE
WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THESE WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR THE OTHER NEARSHORE
ZONES...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW GALE FORCE...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE
WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FRIDAY...AND ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS
WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE
LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS...BUT AN
OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 050903
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
403 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE GOING TO BE QUITE DRAMATIC...WHICH IS LIKELY
UNDERSTATING WHAT THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WILL
EXPERIENCE AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING.

THROUGH SUNRISE...UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE. COASTAL
WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE WIDESPREAD SEA FOG CONTINUES
TO PLAGUE THE COASTAL WATERS...SOME OF WHICH IS OCCASIONALLY
BRUSHING COASTAL COMMUNITIES...MAINLY ACROSS CHARLESTON COUNTY
WHERE LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG
TO PUSH TO THE COAST. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN BOTH THE H3R
AND RAP FOG FIELDS THAT THE SEA FOG COULD REACH AS FAR INLAND AS
HIGHWAY 17 IN CHARLESTON COUNTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS QUITE
LOW GIVEN THE PROJECTED CONTINUATION OF SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
SUNRISE. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...HOWEVER. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE REISSUED TO
ADDRESS THE SEA FOG LOWERING VSBYS TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

FOR TODAY...MORNING LOW CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING AS VERTICAL MIXING INTENSIFIES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSION...PERIODS OF INSOLATION AND A 1-2C INCREASE IN 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY...IF NOT A
BIT WARMER IF CLOUDS MIX OUT QUICK ENOUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID
80S LOOK REASONABLE FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHERE INFLUENCES FROM THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL NOT BE FACTOR.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD SUPPRESS OR AT LEAST
SEVERELY DELAY THE INLAND PENETRATION OF THE RESULT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE CHILLY SHELF
WATERS.

MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODELS AND CURRENT RADAR DATA SUGGEST THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE
IS ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE...SO VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRE-
FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ITSELF. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES BY MID-AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST TO
THE COAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. POPS
WILL GENERALLY BE CAPPED AT 50-70 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS THE FRONT MOVES IN AND RAIN BEGINS TO
FALL SO HAVE TRIED TO TIME THESE THERMAL FALLS TO REFLECT THE
EXPECTED TIMING OF THE BOTH THE FRONT AND ONSET OF RAIN.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT
ITSELF...SO A CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL AREAS.
THERE IS NO RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GUSTS
COULD APPROACH 25-30 MPH AT TIMES...SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...BUT
MIXING PROFILES OVER LAKE MOULTRIE WILL BE POOR AS WARM AIR FLOWS
OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS. THIS WILL YIELD ABSOLUTELY STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED WITHIN THE THICK MARINE LAYER. THE
DEGREE OF GUSTINESS WILL EVEN BE SUBDUED ALONG THE LAKESHORE AS A
ROBUST LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY...WHICH WILL TEND TO
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST-EAST THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE BULK OF THE
MEASURABLE RAINS WILL BE OFFSHORE 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY RAIN BAND...LOW CEILINGS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL FILL IN AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF
DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES AFTER 4-5 AM. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS
SHOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SCOURING OUT BY THIS TIME...DEEP
MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE. THIS OPENS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF SAINT GEORGE-
RIDGEVILLE-HUGER-SHULERVILLE LINE. WITH ONLY MARGINALLY COLD
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING RIGHT AT FREEZING...
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM. HOWEVER...A VERY LIGHT
GLACE ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES...METAL OBJECTS AS WELL
AS SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GROUND CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OTHERWISE...WHICH INCLUDES NON-ELEVATED ROADWAYS. GIVEN THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS EVENT...THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. THE RISK FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL SURGE SOUTH AFTER
SUNRISE AS SUBFREEZING WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ADVECT SOUTH.

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER-MID
40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ONE COULD ARGUE
THAT A FREEZE WARNING IS NEEDED FOR PARTS OF DORCHESTER AND
BERKELEY COUNTIES NOW THAT ITS BEYOND 1 MARCH AND THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE
FREEZING LINE AND CONSIDERING A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND
WIDESPREAD FREEZE WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...A FREEZE WARNING WILL
NOT BE ISSUED.

FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS COMPARED
WITH RECENT RUNS. THUS...EVEN AS THE COLDEST AIR FEATURING TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING AND WET BULB TEMPS JUST BELOW FREEZING SPREADS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS BETWEEN THE EDISTO RIVER/INTERSTATE 26 AND THE
SANTEE RIVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW APPEARS BARELY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN DRIZZLE. THUS...THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL JUSTIFIED ACROSS
NORTHERN/INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY A FAR
SOUTH AS A WALTERBORO-NORTH CHARLESTON-MCCLELLANVILLE LINE. EVEN
IF A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS ANY TRACE AMOUNTS OF GLAZE
SHOULD ONLY OCCUR ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND STREET
SIGNS...GREATLY LIMITING ANY IMPACTS.

FARTHER SOUTH/EAST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. IN GENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLOW BUT STEADY DRYING TREND...SO POPS DECREASE
WITH TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FALL TO NEAR ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ASIDE FROM ANY PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS...FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE
TEMPERATURES SOME 35-40F COLDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY...ONLY
RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST SOUTH CAROLINA LOCATIONS AND ACROSS SE
GEORGIA LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95...AND A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX...WILL DEFER DECISIONS
REGARDING FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS TO SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

DESPITE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-16 TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GA COAST.

SUNDAY...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN AHEAD OF A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 60S SUNDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.

LAKE WINDS...FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR INTENSIFIES. EXPECT
NORTH WINDS OF 20 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WAVES ON THE OPEN LAKE WATERS WILL BUILD TO 1-2 FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL WAVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MOSTLY CLOUDY REGIME
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY DEVOID OF ANY
COLD AIR APPEARS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING COMPLEX FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. FOR INSTANCE...WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DETAILS
REGARDING INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WATCHING LOW CLOUDS SPREADING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THESE ARE ON TARGET TO IMPACT KSAV 08-9Z WITH CIGS DROPPING TO
LOW-END MVFR AND POSSIBLY HIGH END IFR. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL NOT REACH KCHS ATTM AND WILL TREND THE 06Z TAFS IN
THAT DIRECTION. AT KSAV WILL SHOW OVC012 TEMPO OVC008 08-12Z TO
COVER. VFR AT KCHS. FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER THAT IS IN PLACE. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ WILL
BE AN ISSUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE WITH AS MUCH AS 40
KT OF WIND AT 1500 FT OFF THE DECK. VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
CIGS/VSBYS CRASH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AND WILL TREND THE TAFS IN THAT DIRECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY FRIDAY PM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...NASTY SEA FOG WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE CHILLY
SHELF WATERS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD/DENSE SEA FOG WILL OCCUR OVER
THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROVIDE LONGER PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS.
WILL EXTEND THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 2 PM...ALTHOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS CAN BE REMOVED PRIOR
TO THAT GIVEN THE LESS THAN IDEAL TRAJECTORY STRUCTURE THAT FAR
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS WILL
PERSIST WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
ENSUES. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURES RISES WILL SUPPORT GALES FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES
WILL OCCUR. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS...ROUGHLY BEYOND 40 NM...WHERE CONTRAFLOW ALONG THE
WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST. THE GALE
WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THESE WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR THE OTHER NEARSHORE
ZONES...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW GALE FORCE...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE
WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GALES WILL TRANSITION TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FRIDAY...AND ELEVATED N/NE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. A MORE TRANQUIL REGIME IS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES NEXT WEEK AS
WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN STORM TRACK. THE
LATEST FORECAST HOLDS WINDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS...BUT AN
OFFSHORE TRACK FOLLOWED BY DEEPER AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ352-354.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST/SPR



000
FXUS62 KFFC 050851
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
351 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO THE
NW CORNER OF GEORGIA TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THE FRONT HAS MADE
SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAVE SEEN A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN...BUT
THAT WILL CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE NAM
BRINGS IN THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE
00Z RUN LAST NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE
NW CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT DOESN`T
LOOK TO COME IN ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE /PREDOMINATE/ PTYPES WILL BE RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 00Z...SO HAVE ADDED SOME FRIZZLE (FREEZING DRIZZLE) TO
THE FORECAST.THE HIGHEST SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL CLOCKING IN
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT MOST LOCALES WILL BE BELOW THIS
VALUE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE AMOUNTS FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICING ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
IN ADDITION...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
ROADWAYS TO TURN INTO PATCHY BLACK ICE. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WW
ADVSY LONGER IN TIME AND FURTHER EAST.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE A SOGGY DAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT WILL EVEN EXTEND INTO THE
METRO AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA...WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRASELTON TO LAGRANGE...SO
EVEN IF THE KIDDOS DON`T NEED A JACKET THIS MORNING AT THE BUS
STOP...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ONE BY THE TIME SCHOOL LETS OUT.

SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME TWENTY OR MORE DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20


&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS EXTREME NW GA THIS MORNING. A FEW
PATCHES OF RAINFALL HAVE DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART....PRECIP WILL BE ANAFRONTAL. NOT REAL CONFIDENT
THAT CIGS WILL GO IFR OR LOWER UNTIL AFTER 12Z TODAY...SO HELD OFF
UNTIL THE HEAVIER RAINFALL APPROACHES THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. HRRR
SHOWS A HEAVIER LINE ALONG THE FRONT COMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THIS
ACCORDINGLY IN THE TAFS. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER. MOST
OF THE DAY DAY WILL BE WET...BUT VSBY SHOULD BE AT THEIR WORST
WHILE THE HEAVIER PRECIP MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING...AND CIGS WILL PROBABLY CRASH TO IFR
AFTER 06Z. GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A SHIFT TO THE
NW EXPECTED AROUND 20Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  31  48  30 / 100  30   0   0
ATLANTA         58  29  47  31 / 100  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  24  43  26 / 100  20   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  25  46  28 / 100  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        66  33  53  33 / 100  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     57  29  46  30 / 100  20   0   0
MACON           68  36  52  31 /  90  40  10   0
ROME            45  24  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  29  49  28 / 100  10   0   0
VIDALIA         78  39  49  33 /  60  60  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...PICKENS...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...
WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA



000
FXUS62 KCAE 050730
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
230 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE. HOWEVER...WE WILL GET OFF TO A WARM
START AND THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST MOVING THE COLDER AIR
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE. THE NAM
INDICATED WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE-BASED
LI/S NEAR -2 IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION EARLY. BASED ON MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH H85
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BELIEVE GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. THE
RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT MIXING...BUT STILL BELIEVE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL AND GFS LAMP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY BUT BASED ON THE FORECAST OF
WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM BELIEVE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW.

THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE RISK OF BLACK ICE ALSO APPEARS LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AND COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM COLD AIR MASS
WE USED THE COLDER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AFTER 09Z.
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...SO COULD SEE
WIND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS TOWARD DAWN.

WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH CIGS BECOMING IFR/LIFR
08Z-11Z FOR ALL TAF SITES. VSBYS SHOULD ONLY LOWER TO MVFR DUE TO
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP. SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 050730
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
230 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE. HOWEVER...WE WILL GET OFF TO A WARM
START AND THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST MOVING THE COLDER AIR
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE. THE NAM
INDICATED WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE-BASED
LI/S NEAR -2 IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION EARLY. BASED ON MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH H85
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BELIEVE GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. THE
RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT MIXING...BUT STILL BELIEVE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL AND GFS LAMP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY BUT BASED ON THE FORECAST OF
WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM BELIEVE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW.

THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE RISK OF BLACK ICE ALSO APPEARS LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AND COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM COLD AIR MASS
WE USED THE COLDER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AFTER 09Z.
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...SO COULD SEE
WIND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS TOWARD DAWN.

WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH CIGS BECOMING IFR/LIFR
08Z-11Z FOR ALL TAF SITES. VSBYS SHOULD ONLY LOWER TO MVFR DUE TO
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP. SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 050730
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
230 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE. HOWEVER...WE WILL GET OFF TO A WARM
START AND THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST MOVING THE COLDER AIR
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE. THE NAM
INDICATED WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE-BASED
LI/S NEAR -2 IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION EARLY. BASED ON MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH H85
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BELIEVE GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. THE
RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT MIXING...BUT STILL BELIEVE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL AND GFS LAMP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY BUT BASED ON THE FORECAST OF
WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM BELIEVE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW.

THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE RISK OF BLACK ICE ALSO APPEARS LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AND COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM COLD AIR MASS
WE USED THE COLDER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AFTER 09Z.
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...SO COULD SEE
WIND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS TOWARD DAWN.

WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH CIGS BECOMING IFR/LIFR
08Z-11Z FOR ALL TAF SITES. VSBYS SHOULD ONLY LOWER TO MVFR DUE TO
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP. SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 050730
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
230 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE. HOWEVER...WE WILL GET OFF TO A WARM
START AND THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST MOVING THE COLDER AIR
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE. THE NAM
INDICATED WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE-BASED
LI/S NEAR -2 IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION EARLY. BASED ON MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH H85
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BELIEVE GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. THE
RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT MIXING...BUT STILL BELIEVE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL AND GFS LAMP SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY BUT BASED ON THE FORECAST OF
WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM BELIEVE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW.

THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. LINGERING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE...BUT WE
BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE RISK OF BLACK ICE ALSO APPEARS LOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP DRY WET ROADS PLUS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AND COLD PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM COLD AIR MASS
WE USED THE COLDER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AFTER 09Z.
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...SO COULD SEE
WIND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS TOWARD DAWN.

WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH CIGS BECOMING IFR/LIFR
08Z-11Z FOR ALL TAF SITES. VSBYS SHOULD ONLY LOWER TO MVFR DUE TO
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP. SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 050535
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1235 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND
WILL PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A STORM
SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WITH ORIGINS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL REACH THE SAVANNAH RIVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT
GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON HOW FAR NORTH IT GOES FROM THERE. ADJUSTED
SKY COVER GRIDS TO BE A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA ZONES. WIDESPREAD SEA FOG CONTINUES JUST OFF THE BEACHES
AND HAS SHOW SIGNS OF BUFFETING COASTAL COMMUNITIES OVER THE PAST
HOUR...MAINLY ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES ARE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR FOG TO REACH LAND. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE SMALL AREA
THAT WILL BE IMPACTED. IT WILL BE WARM NIGHT WITH A WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. NUDGED OVERNIGHT
LOWS UP A DEGREE OR SO MOST AREAS AND ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES
TO MATCH. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER-MID 60S WITH UPPER 50S
AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY PASSES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO AROUND 25 MPH.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. HIGHS WILL
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WITH CURRENT RECORDS EXPECTED TO
STAY SAFE. GIVEN UPPER FORCING AND INCREASING
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY
AND UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THUNDER TO A
MINIMUM...HOWEVER COULD NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE RUMBLES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP USHER
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE
MID 30S/LOW 40S. FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WINDS OVER LAKE MOULTRIE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE
FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN
FORECAST AREA IS SITUATED IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER JET AND FORCING FROM WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE P-TYPE AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
IN INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY AND PERHAPS SPREADING INTO THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WET BULB PROGS SHOW THE FREEZING LINE NUDGING DOWN INTO
OUR NORTHERN SC ZONES. MOISTURE WILL BE ONE OF THE BIGGER
QUESTIONS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT A WINDOW WHERE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 30-40 DEGREES COLDER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY START TO
DRY OUT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND FREEZING. A
FREEZE WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AT
THE SURFACE...WHILE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ALOFT. LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATE A BIT ALTHOUGH STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE REMAINS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO WAVER FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION AND FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND TO
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS DURING EARLY TO MID WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
SE STATES DURING THIS TIME. WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WATCHING LOW CLOUDS SPREADING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THESE ARE ON TARGET TO IMPACT KSAV 08-9Z WITH CIGS DROPPING TO
LOW-END MVFR AND POSSIBLY HIGH END IFR. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL NOT REACH KCHS ATTM AND WILL TREND THE 06Z TAFS IN
THAT DIRECTION. AT KSAV WILL SHOW OVC012 TEMPO OVC008 08-12Z TO
COVER. VFR AT KCHS. FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER THAT IS IN PLACE. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ WILL
BE AN ISSUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE WITH AS MUCH AS 40
KT OF WIND AT 1500 FT OFF THE DECK. VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
CIGS/VSBYS CRASH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AND WILL TREND THE TAFS IN THAT DIRECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY N TO NE SURFACE WINDS. A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL EXIST
AT KCHS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRES AND VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AS S/SW WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S OVER THE CHILLY ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER NEAR SHORE
WATERS OVERNIGHT. MAINTAINED THE ONGOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
ALL NEAR SHORE ZONES OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WHILE FOG COULD
OCCASIONALLY PUSH INTO CHARLESTON HARBOR...SW WINDS SHOULD HOLD
THE MOST PERSISTENT DENSE FOG OVER AMZ350...THUS NO DFA HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR AMZ330. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS. SEAS OVERNIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
PASSES THROUGH THE WATER THURSDAY EVENING. WARM MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT... THUS HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE FORECAST. AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
WATERS...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE PROVIDING FAVORABLE MIXING
PROFILES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO BE MIXED TO
THE SURFACE. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR NEARSHORE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND OUTER GA WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINING COASTAL
WATERS INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KSAV TIED THE RECORD HIGH OF 84 DEGREES FOR MARCH 4.

RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-352-
     354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ352.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 050535
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1235 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND
WILL PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A STORM
SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WITH ORIGINS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL REACH THE SAVANNAH RIVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT
GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON HOW FAR NORTH IT GOES FROM THERE. ADJUSTED
SKY COVER GRIDS TO BE A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA ZONES. WIDESPREAD SEA FOG CONTINUES JUST OFF THE BEACHES
AND HAS SHOW SIGNS OF BUFFETING COASTAL COMMUNITIES OVER THE PAST
HOUR...MAINLY ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES ARE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR FOG TO REACH LAND. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE SMALL AREA
THAT WILL BE IMPACTED. IT WILL BE WARM NIGHT WITH A WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. NUDGED OVERNIGHT
LOWS UP A DEGREE OR SO MOST AREAS AND ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES
TO MATCH. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER-MID 60S WITH UPPER 50S
AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY PASSES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO AROUND 25 MPH.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. HIGHS WILL
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WITH CURRENT RECORDS EXPECTED TO
STAY SAFE. GIVEN UPPER FORCING AND INCREASING
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY
AND UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THUNDER TO A
MINIMUM...HOWEVER COULD NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE RUMBLES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP USHER
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE
MID 30S/LOW 40S. FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WINDS OVER LAKE MOULTRIE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE
FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN
FORECAST AREA IS SITUATED IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER JET AND FORCING FROM WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE P-TYPE AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
IN INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY AND PERHAPS SPREADING INTO THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WET BULB PROGS SHOW THE FREEZING LINE NUDGING DOWN INTO
OUR NORTHERN SC ZONES. MOISTURE WILL BE ONE OF THE BIGGER
QUESTIONS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT A WINDOW WHERE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 30-40 DEGREES COLDER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY START TO
DRY OUT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND FREEZING. A
FREEZE WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AT
THE SURFACE...WHILE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ALOFT. LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATE A BIT ALTHOUGH STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE REMAINS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO WAVER FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION AND FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND TO
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS DURING EARLY TO MID WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
SE STATES DURING THIS TIME. WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WATCHING LOW CLOUDS SPREADING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THESE ARE ON TARGET TO IMPACT KSAV 08-9Z WITH CIGS DROPPING TO
LOW-END MVFR AND POSSIBLY HIGH END IFR. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL NOT REACH KCHS ATTM AND WILL TREND THE 06Z TAFS IN
THAT DIRECTION. AT KSAV WILL SHOW OVC012 TEMPO OVC008 08-12Z TO
COVER. VFR AT KCHS. FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER THAT IS IN PLACE. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ WILL
BE AN ISSUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE WITH AS MUCH AS 40
KT OF WIND AT 1500 FT OFF THE DECK. VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
CIGS/VSBYS CRASH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AND WILL TREND THE TAFS IN THAT DIRECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY N TO NE SURFACE WINDS. A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL EXIST
AT KCHS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRES AND VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AS S/SW WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S OVER THE CHILLY ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER NEAR SHORE
WATERS OVERNIGHT. MAINTAINED THE ONGOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
ALL NEAR SHORE ZONES OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WHILE FOG COULD
OCCASIONALLY PUSH INTO CHARLESTON HARBOR...SW WINDS SHOULD HOLD
THE MOST PERSISTENT DENSE FOG OVER AMZ350...THUS NO DFA HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR AMZ330. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS. SEAS OVERNIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
PASSES THROUGH THE WATER THURSDAY EVENING. WARM MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT... THUS HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE FORECAST. AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
WATERS...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE PROVIDING FAVORABLE MIXING
PROFILES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO BE MIXED TO
THE SURFACE. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR NEARSHORE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND OUTER GA WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINING COASTAL
WATERS INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KSAV TIED THE RECORD HIGH OF 84 DEGREES FOR MARCH 4.

RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-352-
     354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ352.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 050535
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1235 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND
WILL PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A STORM
SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WITH ORIGINS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL REACH THE SAVANNAH RIVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT
GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON HOW FAR NORTH IT GOES FROM THERE. ADJUSTED
SKY COVER GRIDS TO BE A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA ZONES. WIDESPREAD SEA FOG CONTINUES JUST OFF THE BEACHES
AND HAS SHOW SIGNS OF BUFFETING COASTAL COMMUNITIES OVER THE PAST
HOUR...MAINLY ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES ARE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR FOG TO REACH LAND. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE SMALL AREA
THAT WILL BE IMPACTED. IT WILL BE WARM NIGHT WITH A WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. NUDGED OVERNIGHT
LOWS UP A DEGREE OR SO MOST AREAS AND ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES
TO MATCH. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER-MID 60S WITH UPPER 50S
AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY PASSES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO AROUND 25 MPH.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. HIGHS WILL
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WITH CURRENT RECORDS EXPECTED TO
STAY SAFE. GIVEN UPPER FORCING AND INCREASING
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY
AND UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THUNDER TO A
MINIMUM...HOWEVER COULD NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE RUMBLES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP USHER
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE
MID 30S/LOW 40S. FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WINDS OVER LAKE MOULTRIE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE
FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN
FORECAST AREA IS SITUATED IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER JET AND FORCING FROM WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE P-TYPE AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
IN INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY AND PERHAPS SPREADING INTO THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WET BULB PROGS SHOW THE FREEZING LINE NUDGING DOWN INTO
OUR NORTHERN SC ZONES. MOISTURE WILL BE ONE OF THE BIGGER
QUESTIONS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT A WINDOW WHERE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 30-40 DEGREES COLDER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY START TO
DRY OUT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND FREEZING. A
FREEZE WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AT
THE SURFACE...WHILE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ALOFT. LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATE A BIT ALTHOUGH STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE REMAINS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO WAVER FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION AND FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND TO
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS DURING EARLY TO MID WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
SE STATES DURING THIS TIME. WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WATCHING LOW CLOUDS SPREADING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THESE ARE ON TARGET TO IMPACT KSAV 08-9Z WITH CIGS DROPPING TO
LOW-END MVFR AND POSSIBLY HIGH END IFR. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL NOT REACH KCHS ATTM AND WILL TREND THE 06Z TAFS IN
THAT DIRECTION. AT KSAV WILL SHOW OVC012 TEMPO OVC008 08-12Z TO
COVER. VFR AT KCHS. FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER THAT IS IN PLACE. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ WILL
BE AN ISSUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE WITH AS MUCH AS 40
KT OF WIND AT 1500 FT OFF THE DECK. VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
CIGS/VSBYS CRASH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AND WILL TREND THE TAFS IN THAT DIRECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY N TO NE SURFACE WINDS. A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL EXIST
AT KCHS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRES AND VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AS S/SW WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S OVER THE CHILLY ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER NEAR SHORE
WATERS OVERNIGHT. MAINTAINED THE ONGOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
ALL NEAR SHORE ZONES OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WHILE FOG COULD
OCCASIONALLY PUSH INTO CHARLESTON HARBOR...SW WINDS SHOULD HOLD
THE MOST PERSISTENT DENSE FOG OVER AMZ350...THUS NO DFA HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR AMZ330. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS. SEAS OVERNIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
PASSES THROUGH THE WATER THURSDAY EVENING. WARM MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT... THUS HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE FORECAST. AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
WATERS...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE PROVIDING FAVORABLE MIXING
PROFILES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO BE MIXED TO
THE SURFACE. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR NEARSHORE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND OUTER GA WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINING COASTAL
WATERS INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KSAV TIED THE RECORD HIGH OF 84 DEGREES FOR MARCH 4.

RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-352-
     354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ352.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 050535
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1235 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND
WILL PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A STORM
SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WITH ORIGINS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL REACH THE SAVANNAH RIVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT
GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON HOW FAR NORTH IT GOES FROM THERE. ADJUSTED
SKY COVER GRIDS TO BE A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA ZONES. WIDESPREAD SEA FOG CONTINUES JUST OFF THE BEACHES
AND HAS SHOW SIGNS OF BUFFETING COASTAL COMMUNITIES OVER THE PAST
HOUR...MAINLY ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES ARE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR FOG TO REACH LAND. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE SMALL AREA
THAT WILL BE IMPACTED. IT WILL BE WARM NIGHT WITH A WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. NUDGED OVERNIGHT
LOWS UP A DEGREE OR SO MOST AREAS AND ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES
TO MATCH. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER-MID 60S WITH UPPER 50S
AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY PASSES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO AROUND 25 MPH.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. HIGHS WILL
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WITH CURRENT RECORDS EXPECTED TO
STAY SAFE. GIVEN UPPER FORCING AND INCREASING
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY
AND UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THUNDER TO A
MINIMUM...HOWEVER COULD NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE RUMBLES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP USHER
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE
MID 30S/LOW 40S. FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WINDS OVER LAKE MOULTRIE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE
FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN
FORECAST AREA IS SITUATED IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER JET AND FORCING FROM WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE P-TYPE AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
IN INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY AND PERHAPS SPREADING INTO THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WET BULB PROGS SHOW THE FREEZING LINE NUDGING DOWN INTO
OUR NORTHERN SC ZONES. MOISTURE WILL BE ONE OF THE BIGGER
QUESTIONS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT A WINDOW WHERE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 30-40 DEGREES COLDER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY START TO
DRY OUT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND FREEZING. A
FREEZE WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AT
THE SURFACE...WHILE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ALOFT. LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATE A BIT ALTHOUGH STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE REMAINS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO WAVER FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION AND FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND TO
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS DURING EARLY TO MID WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
SE STATES DURING THIS TIME. WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WATCHING LOW CLOUDS SPREADING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THESE ARE ON TARGET TO IMPACT KSAV 08-9Z WITH CIGS DROPPING TO
LOW-END MVFR AND POSSIBLY HIGH END IFR. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL NOT REACH KCHS ATTM AND WILL TREND THE 06Z TAFS IN
THAT DIRECTION. AT KSAV WILL SHOW OVC012 TEMPO OVC008 08-12Z TO
COVER. VFR AT KCHS. FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER THAT IS IN PLACE. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ WILL
BE AN ISSUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE WITH AS MUCH AS 40
KT OF WIND AT 1500 FT OFF THE DECK. VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
CIGS/VSBYS CRASH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AND WILL TREND THE TAFS IN THAT DIRECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY N TO NE SURFACE WINDS. A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL EXIST
AT KCHS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRES AND VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AS S/SW WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S OVER THE CHILLY ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER NEAR SHORE
WATERS OVERNIGHT. MAINTAINED THE ONGOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
ALL NEAR SHORE ZONES OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WHILE FOG COULD
OCCASIONALLY PUSH INTO CHARLESTON HARBOR...SW WINDS SHOULD HOLD
THE MOST PERSISTENT DENSE FOG OVER AMZ350...THUS NO DFA HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR AMZ330. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS. SEAS OVERNIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
PASSES THROUGH THE WATER THURSDAY EVENING. WARM MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT... THUS HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE FORECAST. AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
WATERS...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE PROVIDING FAVORABLE MIXING
PROFILES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO BE MIXED TO
THE SURFACE. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR NEARSHORE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND OUTER GA WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINING COASTAL
WATERS INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KSAV TIED THE RECORD HIGH OF 84 DEGREES FOR MARCH 4.

RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ330.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-352-
     354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ352.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCAE 050522
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1222 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BACK TO THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NW STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST GA NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN NC WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ACROSS WEST/CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND EASTERN TENNESSEE. EXPECT BY 12Z THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THE UPSTATE. THIS TIMING IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 35 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND MILD SW WINDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY MILD OVERNIGHT. ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OVERNIGHT. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...POPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NW. HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POP BY LATE TONIGHT TOWARD
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA TO START OFF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 60S BEFORE FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...HIGH WILL OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S...THEN BEGINNING TO FALL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE PEAK HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALONG WITH THE
FRONT...THE REGION CAN EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
GUSTY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA.
DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS IF THE PRECIP WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE CWA BY THE TIME ANY TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING.
HOWEVER IF THE TIMING IS OFF ON EITHER THE PRECIP OR TEMPERATURES...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

FRIDAY MORNING WILL START OFF COLD...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST. AREAS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGH THE
DAY...WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH
COLDER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF SHORE.
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DO
EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AFTER 09Z.
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...SO COULD SEE
WIND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS TOWARD DAWN.

WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH CIGS BECOMING IFR/LIFR
08Z-11Z FOR ALL TAF SITES. VSBYS SHOULD ONLY LOWER TO MVFR DUE TO
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP. SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 050522
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1222 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BACK TO THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NW STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST GA NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN NC WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ACROSS WEST/CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND EASTERN TENNESSEE. EXPECT BY 12Z THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THE UPSTATE. THIS TIMING IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 35 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND MILD SW WINDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY MILD OVERNIGHT. ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OVERNIGHT. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...POPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NW. HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POP BY LATE TONIGHT TOWARD
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA TO START OFF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 60S BEFORE FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...HIGH WILL OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S...THEN BEGINNING TO FALL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE PEAK HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALONG WITH THE
FRONT...THE REGION CAN EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
GUSTY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA.
DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS IF THE PRECIP WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE CWA BY THE TIME ANY TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING.
HOWEVER IF THE TIMING IS OFF ON EITHER THE PRECIP OR TEMPERATURES...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

FRIDAY MORNING WILL START OFF COLD...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST. AREAS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGH THE
DAY...WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH
COLDER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF SHORE.
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DO
EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AFTER 09Z.
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...SO COULD SEE
WIND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS TOWARD DAWN.

WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH CIGS BECOMING IFR/LIFR
08Z-11Z FOR ALL TAF SITES. VSBYS SHOULD ONLY LOWER TO MVFR DUE TO
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP. SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 050521
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1221 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR. THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT IS APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF GA AND
SHOULD BE JUST ON ATL AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS OKAY.

41

PREVIOUS...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HOPEFULLY THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP THIS
SEASON...BUT UNFORTUNATELY FOR FOLKS IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA THERE
DEFINITELY IS A CHANCE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION WITH DEEP SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SHORTWAVE DAMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BEST DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE PUSH MORE INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
GEORGIA.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE SOIL AND ROAD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN ON AND OFF
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
DEFINITELY FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH 12Z HIGHS AT SOME
LOCATIONS. UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT QUITE A BIT AND
BUFR PROFILES AT KCHA REALLY TELL THE STORY WELL...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BETWEEN 02-05Z THURSDAY AND THE LOW LEVEL
COLD LAYER DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MORE LIKE 09-10Z. EXPECT THAT
RAIN WILL START MIXING WITH SLEET CLOSE TO 12Z...AND AS THE COLD
NOSE STRENGTHENS AND THE WARM NOSE /AN IMPRESSIVE +10C/ REMAINS
STRONG...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. BEST CHANCES OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN
12-18Z THURSDAY BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP AS LATE AS 21Z.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON QPF AND FINAL P-TYPE...
BUT THINKING NOW IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD BEFORE WITH LESS
THAN 1/4 INCH SLEET AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ICE.

WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A LOW-END /AND FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE/ WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A HANDFUL OF NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. WILL EXPAND THE SPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE METRO...
NOT NECESSARILY FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BRIEF MIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND MORE SO FOR THE BLACK
ICE POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
MOISTURE ON THE ROADS TO DRY BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR BLACK ICE IS DEFINITELY THE WARM GROUND/ROAD TEMPERATURES
OUT THERE TODAY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO GENERALLY MOVE OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAYBE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT...AS ALWAYS...FORECASTS MAY CHANGE. THE FRONT MAY
SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN...AND PRECIP MAY LINGER OR MOVE OUT FASTER.
ANY CHANGES MAY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT PRODUCTS SO AS ALWAYS
IT IS IMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.

TDP

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20

BDL



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS EXTREME NW GA THIS MORNING. A FEW
PATCHES OF RAINFALL HAVE DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART....PRECIP WILL BE ANAFRONTAL. NOT REAL CONFIDENT
THAT CIGS WILL GO IFR OR LOWER UNTIL AFTER 12Z TODAY...SO HELD OFF
UNTIL THE HEAVIER RAINFALL APPROACHES THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. HRRR
SHOWS A HEAVIER LINE ALONG THE FRONT COMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THIS
ACCORDINGLY IN THE TAFS. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER. MOST
OF THE DAY DAY WILL BE WET...BUT VSBY SHOULD BE AT THEIR WORST
WHILE THE HEAVIER PRECIP MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING...AND CIGS WILL PROBABLY CRASH TO IFR
AFTER 06Z. GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A SHIFT TO THE
NW EXPECTED AROUND 20Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          60  31  45  29 /  90  30   5   0
ATLANTA         49  30  45  33 / 100  20   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     45  26  43  26 / 100  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    42  26  44  27 / 100  10   5   0
COLUMBUS        62  35  48  32 /  80  20  10   0
GAINESVILLE     52  29  43  32 / 100  20   5   0
MACON           65  37  48  30 /  70  30  10   0
ROME            41  24  43  25 / 100  10   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  55  30  46  28 /  90  20   5   0
VIDALIA         75  41  44  35 /  60  30  30   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...
FANNIN...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 050521
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1221 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR. THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT IS APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF GA AND
SHOULD BE JUST ON ATL AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS OKAY.

41

PREVIOUS...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HOPEFULLY THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP THIS
SEASON...BUT UNFORTUNATELY FOR FOLKS IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA THERE
DEFINITELY IS A CHANCE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION WITH DEEP SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SHORTWAVE DAMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BEST DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE PUSH MORE INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
GEORGIA.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE SOIL AND ROAD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN ON AND OFF
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
DEFINITELY FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH 12Z HIGHS AT SOME
LOCATIONS. UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT QUITE A BIT AND
BUFR PROFILES AT KCHA REALLY TELL THE STORY WELL...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BETWEEN 02-05Z THURSDAY AND THE LOW LEVEL
COLD LAYER DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MORE LIKE 09-10Z. EXPECT THAT
RAIN WILL START MIXING WITH SLEET CLOSE TO 12Z...AND AS THE COLD
NOSE STRENGTHENS AND THE WARM NOSE /AN IMPRESSIVE +10C/ REMAINS
STRONG...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. BEST CHANCES OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN
12-18Z THURSDAY BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP AS LATE AS 21Z.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON QPF AND FINAL P-TYPE...
BUT THINKING NOW IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD BEFORE WITH LESS
THAN 1/4 INCH SLEET AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ICE.

WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A LOW-END /AND FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE/ WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A HANDFUL OF NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. WILL EXPAND THE SPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE METRO...
NOT NECESSARILY FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BRIEF MIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND MORE SO FOR THE BLACK
ICE POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
MOISTURE ON THE ROADS TO DRY BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR BLACK ICE IS DEFINITELY THE WARM GROUND/ROAD TEMPERATURES
OUT THERE TODAY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO GENERALLY MOVE OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAYBE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT...AS ALWAYS...FORECASTS MAY CHANGE. THE FRONT MAY
SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN...AND PRECIP MAY LINGER OR MOVE OUT FASTER.
ANY CHANGES MAY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT PRODUCTS SO AS ALWAYS
IT IS IMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.

TDP

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20

BDL



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS EXTREME NW GA THIS MORNING. A FEW
PATCHES OF RAINFALL HAVE DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART....PRECIP WILL BE ANAFRONTAL. NOT REAL CONFIDENT
THAT CIGS WILL GO IFR OR LOWER UNTIL AFTER 12Z TODAY...SO HELD OFF
UNTIL THE HEAVIER RAINFALL APPROACHES THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. HRRR
SHOWS A HEAVIER LINE ALONG THE FRONT COMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THIS
ACCORDINGLY IN THE TAFS. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER. MOST
OF THE DAY DAY WILL BE WET...BUT VSBY SHOULD BE AT THEIR WORST
WHILE THE HEAVIER PRECIP MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING...AND CIGS WILL PROBABLY CRASH TO IFR
AFTER 06Z. GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A SHIFT TO THE
NW EXPECTED AROUND 20Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          60  31  45  29 /  90  30   5   0
ATLANTA         49  30  45  33 / 100  20   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     45  26  43  26 / 100  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    42  26  44  27 / 100  10   5   0
COLUMBUS        62  35  48  32 /  80  20  10   0
GAINESVILLE     52  29  43  32 / 100  20   5   0
MACON           65  37  48  30 /  70  30  10   0
ROME            41  24  43  25 / 100  10   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  55  30  46  28 /  90  20   5   0
VIDALIA         75  41  44  35 /  60  30  30   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...
FANNIN...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 050332
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1032 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BACK TO THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NW STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST GA NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN NC WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ACROSS WEST/CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND EASTERN TENNESSEE. EXPECT BY 12Z THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THE UPSTATE. THIS TIMING IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 35 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND MILD SW WINDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY MILD OVERNIGHT. ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OVERNIGHT. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...POPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NW. HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POP BY LATE TONIGHT TOWARD
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA TO START OFF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 60S BEFORE FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...HIGH WILL OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S...THEN BEGINNING TO FALL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE PEAK HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALONG WITH THE
FRONT...THE REGION CAN EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
GUSTY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA.
DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS IF THE PRECIP WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE CWA BY THE TIME ANY TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING.
HOWEVER IF THE TIMING IS OFF ON EITHER THE PRECIP OR TEMPERATURES...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

FRIDAY MORNING WILL START OFF COLD...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST. AREAS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGH THE
DAY...WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH
COLDER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF SHORE.
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DO
EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AFTER 06Z.
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...SO COULD SEE
WIND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS TOWARD DAWN.

WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH CIGS BECOMING IFR/LIFR
06Z-08Z FOR AGS/DNL AND 07Z-09Z AT CAE/CUB/OGB. VSBYS SHOULD ONLY
LOWER TO MVFR DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 050332
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1032 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BACK TO THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NW STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST GA NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN NC WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ACROSS WEST/CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND EASTERN TENNESSEE. EXPECT BY 12Z THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THE UPSTATE. THIS TIMING IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 35 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND MILD SW WINDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY MILD OVERNIGHT. ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OVERNIGHT. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...POPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NW. HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POP BY LATE TONIGHT TOWARD
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA TO START OFF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 60S BEFORE FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...HIGH WILL OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S...THEN BEGINNING TO FALL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE PEAK HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALONG WITH THE
FRONT...THE REGION CAN EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
GUSTY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA.
DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS IF THE PRECIP WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE CWA BY THE TIME ANY TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING.
HOWEVER IF THE TIMING IS OFF ON EITHER THE PRECIP OR TEMPERATURES...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

FRIDAY MORNING WILL START OFF COLD...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST. AREAS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGH THE
DAY...WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH
COLDER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF SHORE.
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DO
EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AFTER 06Z.
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...SO COULD SEE
WIND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS TOWARD DAWN.

WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH CIGS BECOMING IFR/LIFR
06Z-08Z FOR AGS/DNL AND 07Z-09Z AT CAE/CUB/OGB. VSBYS SHOULD ONLY
LOWER TO MVFR DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 050332
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1032 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BACK TO THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NW STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST GA NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN NC WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ACROSS WEST/CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND EASTERN TENNESSEE. EXPECT BY 12Z THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THE UPSTATE. THIS TIMING IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 35 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND MILD SW WINDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY MILD OVERNIGHT. ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OVERNIGHT. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...POPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NW. HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POP BY LATE TONIGHT TOWARD
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA TO START OFF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 60S BEFORE FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...HIGH WILL OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S...THEN BEGINNING TO FALL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE PEAK HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALONG WITH THE
FRONT...THE REGION CAN EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
GUSTY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA.
DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS IF THE PRECIP WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE CWA BY THE TIME ANY TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING.
HOWEVER IF THE TIMING IS OFF ON EITHER THE PRECIP OR TEMPERATURES...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

FRIDAY MORNING WILL START OFF COLD...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST. AREAS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGH THE
DAY...WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH
COLDER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF SHORE.
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DO
EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AFTER 06Z.
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...SO COULD SEE
WIND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS TOWARD DAWN.

WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH CIGS BECOMING IFR/LIFR
06Z-08Z FOR AGS/DNL AND 07Z-09Z AT CAE/CUB/OGB. VSBYS SHOULD ONLY
LOWER TO MVFR DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 050332
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1032 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BACK TO THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NW STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST GA NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN NC WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ACROSS WEST/CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND EASTERN TENNESSEE. EXPECT BY 12Z THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THE UPSTATE. THIS TIMING IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 35 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND MILD SW WINDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY MILD OVERNIGHT. ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OVERNIGHT. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...POPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NW. HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POP BY LATE TONIGHT TOWARD
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA TO START OFF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 60S BEFORE FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...HIGH WILL OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S...THEN BEGINNING TO FALL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE PEAK HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALONG WITH THE
FRONT...THE REGION CAN EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
GUSTY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA.
DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS IF THE PRECIP WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE CWA BY THE TIME ANY TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING.
HOWEVER IF THE TIMING IS OFF ON EITHER THE PRECIP OR TEMPERATURES...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

FRIDAY MORNING WILL START OFF COLD...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST. AREAS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGH THE
DAY...WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH
COLDER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF SHORE.
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DO
EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AFTER 06Z.
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...SO COULD SEE
WIND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS TOWARD DAWN.

WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH CIGS BECOMING IFR/LIFR
06Z-08Z FOR AGS/DNL AND 07Z-09Z AT CAE/CUB/OGB. VSBYS SHOULD ONLY
LOWER TO MVFR DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 050332
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1032 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BACK TO THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NW STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST GA NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN NC WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ACROSS WEST/CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND EASTERN TENNESSEE. EXPECT BY 12Z THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THE UPSTATE. THIS TIMING IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 35 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND MILD SW WINDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY MILD OVERNIGHT. ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OVERNIGHT. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...POPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NW. HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POP BY LATE TONIGHT TOWARD
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA TO START OFF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 60S BEFORE FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...HIGH WILL OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S...THEN BEGINNING TO FALL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE PEAK HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALONG WITH THE
FRONT...THE REGION CAN EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
GUSTY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA.
DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS IF THE PRECIP WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE CWA BY THE TIME ANY TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING.
HOWEVER IF THE TIMING IS OFF ON EITHER THE PRECIP OR TEMPERATURES...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

FRIDAY MORNING WILL START OFF COLD...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST. AREAS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGH THE
DAY...WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH
COLDER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF SHORE.
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DO
EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AFTER 06Z.
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...SO COULD SEE
WIND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS TOWARD DAWN.

WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH CIGS BECOMING IFR/LIFR
06Z-08Z FOR AGS/DNL AND 07Z-09Z AT CAE/CUB/OGB. VSBYS SHOULD ONLY
LOWER TO MVFR DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 050332
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1032 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BACK TO THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NW STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST GA NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN NC WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ACROSS WEST/CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND EASTERN TENNESSEE. EXPECT BY 12Z THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THE UPSTATE. THIS TIMING IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 35 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND MILD SW WINDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY MILD OVERNIGHT. ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OVERNIGHT. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...POPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NW. HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POP BY LATE TONIGHT TOWARD
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA TO START OFF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 60S BEFORE FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...HIGH WILL OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S...THEN BEGINNING TO FALL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE PEAK HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALONG WITH THE
FRONT...THE REGION CAN EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
GUSTY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA.
DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS IF THE PRECIP WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE CWA BY THE TIME ANY TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING.
HOWEVER IF THE TIMING IS OFF ON EITHER THE PRECIP OR TEMPERATURES...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

FRIDAY MORNING WILL START OFF COLD...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST. AREAS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGH THE
DAY...WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH
COLDER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF SHORE.
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DO
EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AFTER 06Z.
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...SO COULD SEE
WIND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS TOWARD DAWN.

WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH CIGS BECOMING IFR/LIFR
06Z-08Z FOR AGS/DNL AND 07Z-09Z AT CAE/CUB/OGB. VSBYS SHOULD ONLY
LOWER TO MVFR DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 050332
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1032 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BACK TO THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NW STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST GA NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN NC WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ACROSS WEST/CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND EASTERN TENNESSEE. EXPECT BY 12Z THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THE UPSTATE. THIS TIMING IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 35 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND MILD SW WINDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY MILD OVERNIGHT. ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OVERNIGHT. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...POPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NW. HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POP BY LATE TONIGHT TOWARD
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA TO START OFF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 60S BEFORE FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...HIGH WILL OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S...THEN BEGINNING TO FALL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE PEAK HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALONG WITH THE
FRONT...THE REGION CAN EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
GUSTY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA.
DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS IF THE PRECIP WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE CWA BY THE TIME ANY TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING.
HOWEVER IF THE TIMING IS OFF ON EITHER THE PRECIP OR TEMPERATURES...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

FRIDAY MORNING WILL START OFF COLD...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST. AREAS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGH THE
DAY...WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH
COLDER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF SHORE.
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DO
EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AFTER 06Z.
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...SO COULD SEE
WIND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS TOWARD DAWN.

WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH CIGS BECOMING IFR/LIFR
06Z-08Z FOR AGS/DNL AND 07Z-09Z AT CAE/CUB/OGB. VSBYS SHOULD ONLY
LOWER TO MVFR DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 050332
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1032 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BACK TO THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NW STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST GA NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN NC WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ACROSS WEST/CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND EASTERN TENNESSEE. EXPECT BY 12Z THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THE UPSTATE. THIS TIMING IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 35 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND MILD SW WINDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY MILD OVERNIGHT. ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OVERNIGHT. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...POPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NW. HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POP BY LATE TONIGHT TOWARD
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA TO START OFF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 60S BEFORE FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...HIGH WILL OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S...THEN BEGINNING TO FALL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE PEAK HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALONG WITH THE
FRONT...THE REGION CAN EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
GUSTY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA.
DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS IF THE PRECIP WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE CWA BY THE TIME ANY TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING.
HOWEVER IF THE TIMING IS OFF ON EITHER THE PRECIP OR TEMPERATURES...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

FRIDAY MORNING WILL START OFF COLD...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST. AREAS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGH THE
DAY...WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH
COLDER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF SHORE.
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DO
EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AFTER 06Z.
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...SO COULD SEE
WIND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS TOWARD DAWN.

WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH CIGS BECOMING IFR/LIFR
06Z-08Z FOR AGS/DNL AND 07Z-09Z AT CAE/CUB/OGB. VSBYS SHOULD ONLY
LOWER TO MVFR DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 050312
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1012 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND
WILL PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A STORM
SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND REQUIRED FEW/MINOR TWEAKS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND EVEN BY
DAYBREAK ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S.

LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTHERN GA WILL SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG COULD ACCOMPANY THESE LOW
CLOUDS...BUT ODDS ARE GREATER THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT.

NO RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY PASSES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO AROUND 25 MPH.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. HIGHS WILL
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WITH CURRENT RECORDS EXPECTED TO
STAY SAFE. GIVEN UPPER FORCING AND INCREASING
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY
AND UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THUNDER TO A
MINIMUM...HOWEVER COULD NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE RUMBLES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP USHER
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE
MID 30S/LOW 40S. FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WINDS OVER LAKE MOULTRIE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE
FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN
FORECAST AREA IS SITUATED IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER JET AND FORCING FROM WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PTYPE AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN
INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY AND PERHAPS SPREADING INTO THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY REGION FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WET BULB PROGS SHOW THE FREEZING LINE NUDGING DOWN INTO OUR
NORTHERN SC ZONES. MOISTURE WILL BE ONE OF THE BIGGER
QUESTIONS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT A WINDOW WHERE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 30-40 DEGREES COLDER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY START TO
DRY OUT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND FREEZING. A
FREEZE WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AT
THE SURFACE...WHILE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ALOFT. LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATE A BIT ALTHOUGH STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE REMAINS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO WAVER FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION AND FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND TO
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS DURING EARLY TO MID WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
SE STATES DURING THIS TIME. WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR UNTIL AFTER 06Z...THEN IFR/LIFR CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER THE TERMINALS AND/OR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD THEN RETURN 15Z-18Z THURSDAY.
ALSO...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS IN TAFS FOR TONIGHT...THEN
MIXING WILL PROMOTE SW GUSTS 20-25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THURSDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY CROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE
23Z-02Z TIME FRAME...ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP WIND SHIFT AND SURGE
OF NE WINDS...AS WELL AS MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS. SINCE THE
POTENTIAL COLD FROPA STRADDLES THE END OF THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD...THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT YET ADDRESSED WITHIN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY N TO NE SURFACE WINDS. A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL EXIST
AT KCHS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRES AND VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AS S/SW WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S OVER THE CHILLY ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER NEAR SHORE
WATERS OVERNIGHT. MAINTAINED THE ONGOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
ALL NEAR SHORE ZONES OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WHILE FOG COULD
OCCASIONALLY PUSH INTO CHARLESTON HARBOR...SW WINDS SHOULD HOLD
THE MOST PERSISTENT DENSE FOG OVER AMZ350...THUS NO DFA HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR AMZ330. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS. SEAS OVERNIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
PASSES THROUGH THE WATER THURSDAY EVENING. WARM MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT... THUS HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE FORECAST. AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
WATERS...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE PROVIDING FAVORABLE MIXING
PROFILES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO BE MIXED TO
THE SURFACE. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR NEARSHORE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND OUTER GA WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINING COASTAL
WATERS INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KSAV TIED THE RECORD HIGH OF 84 DEGREES FOR MARCH 4.

RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ330.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ352.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ350.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ECT/SPR
MARINE...ECT/SPR
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 050312
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1012 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND
WILL PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A STORM
SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND REQUIRED FEW/MINOR TWEAKS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND EVEN BY
DAYBREAK ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S.

LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTHERN GA WILL SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG COULD ACCOMPANY THESE LOW
CLOUDS...BUT ODDS ARE GREATER THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT.

NO RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY PASSES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO AROUND 25 MPH.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. HIGHS WILL
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WITH CURRENT RECORDS EXPECTED TO
STAY SAFE. GIVEN UPPER FORCING AND INCREASING
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY
AND UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THUNDER TO A
MINIMUM...HOWEVER COULD NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE RUMBLES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP USHER
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE
MID 30S/LOW 40S. FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WINDS OVER LAKE MOULTRIE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE
FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN
FORECAST AREA IS SITUATED IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER JET AND FORCING FROM WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PTYPE AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN
INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY AND PERHAPS SPREADING INTO THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY REGION FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WET BULB PROGS SHOW THE FREEZING LINE NUDGING DOWN INTO OUR
NORTHERN SC ZONES. MOISTURE WILL BE ONE OF THE BIGGER
QUESTIONS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT A WINDOW WHERE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 30-40 DEGREES COLDER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY START TO
DRY OUT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND FREEZING. A
FREEZE WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AT
THE SURFACE...WHILE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ALOFT. LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATE A BIT ALTHOUGH STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE REMAINS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO WAVER FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION AND FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND TO
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS DURING EARLY TO MID WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
SE STATES DURING THIS TIME. WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR UNTIL AFTER 06Z...THEN IFR/LIFR CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER THE TERMINALS AND/OR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD THEN RETURN 15Z-18Z THURSDAY.
ALSO...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS IN TAFS FOR TONIGHT...THEN
MIXING WILL PROMOTE SW GUSTS 20-25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THURSDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY CROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE
23Z-02Z TIME FRAME...ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP WIND SHIFT AND SURGE
OF NE WINDS...AS WELL AS MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS. SINCE THE
POTENTIAL COLD FROPA STRADDLES THE END OF THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD...THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT YET ADDRESSED WITHIN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY N TO NE SURFACE WINDS. A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL EXIST
AT KCHS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRES AND VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AS S/SW WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S OVER THE CHILLY ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER NEAR SHORE
WATERS OVERNIGHT. MAINTAINED THE ONGOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
ALL NEAR SHORE ZONES OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WHILE FOG COULD
OCCASIONALLY PUSH INTO CHARLESTON HARBOR...SW WINDS SHOULD HOLD
THE MOST PERSISTENT DENSE FOG OVER AMZ350...THUS NO DFA HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR AMZ330. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS. SEAS OVERNIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
PASSES THROUGH THE WATER THURSDAY EVENING. WARM MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT... THUS HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE FORECAST. AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
WATERS...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE PROVIDING FAVORABLE MIXING
PROFILES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO BE MIXED TO
THE SURFACE. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR NEARSHORE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND OUTER GA WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINING COASTAL
WATERS INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KSAV TIED THE RECORD HIGH OF 84 DEGREES FOR MARCH 4.

RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ330.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ352.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ350.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ECT/SPR
MARINE...ECT/SPR
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KFFC 050257
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
955 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR. THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT IS APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF GA AND
SHOULD BE JUST ON ATL AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS OKAY.

41

.PREVIOUS...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HOPEFULLY THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP THIS
SEASON...BUT UNFORTUNATELY FOR FOLKS IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA THERE
DEFINITELY IS A CHANCE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION WITH DEEP SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SHORTWAVE DAMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BEST DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE PUSH MORE INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
GEORGIA.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE SOIL AND ROAD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN ON AND OFF
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
DEFINITELY FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH 12Z HIGHS AT SOME
LOCATIONS. UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT QUITE A BIT AND
BUFR PROFILES AT KCHA REALLY TELL THE STORY WELL...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BETWEEN 02-05Z THURSDAY AND THE LOW LEVEL
COLD LAYER DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MORE LIKE 09-10Z. EXPECT THAT
RAIN WILL START MIXING WITH SLEET CLOSE TO 12Z...AND AS THE COLD
NOSE STRENGTHENS AND THE WARM NOSE /AN IMPRESSIVE +10C/ REMAINS
STRONG...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. BEST CHANCES OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN
12-18Z THURSDAY BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP AS LATE AS 21Z.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON QPF AND FINAL P-TYPE...
BUT THINKING NOW IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD BEFORE WITH LESS
THAN 1/4 INCH SLEET AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ICE.

WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A LOW-END /AND FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE/ WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A HANDFUL OF NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. WILL EXPAND THE SPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE METRO...
NOT NECESSARILY FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BRIEF MIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND MORE SO FOR THE BLACK
ICE POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
MOISTURE ON THE ROADS TO DRY BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR BLACK ICE IS DEFINITELY THE WARM GROUND/ROAD TEMPERATURES
OUT THERE TODAY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO GENERALLY MOVE OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAYBE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT...AS ALWAYS...FORECASTS MAY CHANGE. THE FRONT MAY
SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN...AND PRECIP MAY LINGER OR MOVE OUT FASTER.
ANY CHANGES MAY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT PRODUCTS SO AS ALWAYS
IT IS IMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.


TDP

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO IFR AFTER 06Z ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITN RAIN AND
FOG TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING WITH PROBABLY SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO
15KT WITH SOME GUSTS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AFTER 02Z. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z THURSDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON CIG/VSBY TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL VALUES.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  60  31  45 /  60  90  30   5
ATLANTA         47  49  30  45 /  90 100  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     42  45  26  43 / 100 100  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    40  42  26  44 / 100 100  10   5
COLUMBUS        61  62  35  48 /  70  80  20  10
GAINESVILLE     50  52  29  43 /  90 100  20   5
MACON           64  65  37  48 /  40  70  30  10
ROME            39  41  24  43 / 100 100  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  55  30  46 /  80  90  20   5
VIDALIA         64  75  41  44 /  10  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...FANNIN...FLOYD...
GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KFFC 050257
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
955 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR. THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT IS APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF GA AND
SHOULD BE JUST ON ATL AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS OKAY.

41

.PREVIOUS...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HOPEFULLY THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP THIS
SEASON...BUT UNFORTUNATELY FOR FOLKS IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA THERE
DEFINITELY IS A CHANCE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION WITH DEEP SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SHORTWAVE DAMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BEST DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE PUSH MORE INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
GEORGIA.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE SOIL AND ROAD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN ON AND OFF
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
DEFINITELY FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH 12Z HIGHS AT SOME
LOCATIONS. UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT QUITE A BIT AND
BUFR PROFILES AT KCHA REALLY TELL THE STORY WELL...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BETWEEN 02-05Z THURSDAY AND THE LOW LEVEL
COLD LAYER DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MORE LIKE 09-10Z. EXPECT THAT
RAIN WILL START MIXING WITH SLEET CLOSE TO 12Z...AND AS THE COLD
NOSE STRENGTHENS AND THE WARM NOSE /AN IMPRESSIVE +10C/ REMAINS
STRONG...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. BEST CHANCES OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN
12-18Z THURSDAY BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP AS LATE AS 21Z.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON QPF AND FINAL P-TYPE...
BUT THINKING NOW IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD BEFORE WITH LESS
THAN 1/4 INCH SLEET AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ICE.

WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A LOW-END /AND FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE/ WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A HANDFUL OF NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. WILL EXPAND THE SPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE METRO...
NOT NECESSARILY FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BRIEF MIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND MORE SO FOR THE BLACK
ICE POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
MOISTURE ON THE ROADS TO DRY BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR BLACK ICE IS DEFINITELY THE WARM GROUND/ROAD TEMPERATURES
OUT THERE TODAY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO GENERALLY MOVE OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAYBE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT...AS ALWAYS...FORECASTS MAY CHANGE. THE FRONT MAY
SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN...AND PRECIP MAY LINGER OR MOVE OUT FASTER.
ANY CHANGES MAY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT PRODUCTS SO AS ALWAYS
IT IS IMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.


TDP

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO IFR AFTER 06Z ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITN RAIN AND
FOG TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING WITH PROBABLY SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO
15KT WITH SOME GUSTS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AFTER 02Z. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z THURSDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON CIG/VSBY TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL VALUES.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  60  31  45 /  60  90  30   5
ATLANTA         47  49  30  45 /  90 100  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     42  45  26  43 / 100 100  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    40  42  26  44 / 100 100  10   5
COLUMBUS        61  62  35  48 /  70  80  20  10
GAINESVILLE     50  52  29  43 /  90 100  20   5
MACON           64  65  37  48 /  40  70  30  10
ROME            39  41  24  43 / 100 100  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  55  30  46 /  80  90  20   5
VIDALIA         64  75  41  44 /  10  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...FANNIN...FLOYD...
GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KFFC 050257
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
955 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR. THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT IS APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF GA AND
SHOULD BE JUST ON ATL AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS OKAY.

41

.PREVIOUS...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HOPEFULLY THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP THIS
SEASON...BUT UNFORTUNATELY FOR FOLKS IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA THERE
DEFINITELY IS A CHANCE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION WITH DEEP SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SHORTWAVE DAMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BEST DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE PUSH MORE INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
GEORGIA.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE SOIL AND ROAD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN ON AND OFF
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
DEFINITELY FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH 12Z HIGHS AT SOME
LOCATIONS. UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT QUITE A BIT AND
BUFR PROFILES AT KCHA REALLY TELL THE STORY WELL...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BETWEEN 02-05Z THURSDAY AND THE LOW LEVEL
COLD LAYER DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MORE LIKE 09-10Z. EXPECT THAT
RAIN WILL START MIXING WITH SLEET CLOSE TO 12Z...AND AS THE COLD
NOSE STRENGTHENS AND THE WARM NOSE /AN IMPRESSIVE +10C/ REMAINS
STRONG...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. BEST CHANCES OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN
12-18Z THURSDAY BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP AS LATE AS 21Z.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON QPF AND FINAL P-TYPE...
BUT THINKING NOW IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD BEFORE WITH LESS
THAN 1/4 INCH SLEET AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ICE.

WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A LOW-END /AND FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE/ WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A HANDFUL OF NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. WILL EXPAND THE SPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE METRO...
NOT NECESSARILY FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BRIEF MIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND MORE SO FOR THE BLACK
ICE POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
MOISTURE ON THE ROADS TO DRY BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR BLACK ICE IS DEFINITELY THE WARM GROUND/ROAD TEMPERATURES
OUT THERE TODAY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO GENERALLY MOVE OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAYBE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT...AS ALWAYS...FORECASTS MAY CHANGE. THE FRONT MAY
SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN...AND PRECIP MAY LINGER OR MOVE OUT FASTER.
ANY CHANGES MAY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT PRODUCTS SO AS ALWAYS
IT IS IMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.


TDP

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO IFR AFTER 06Z ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITN RAIN AND
FOG TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING WITH PROBABLY SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO
15KT WITH SOME GUSTS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AFTER 02Z. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z THURSDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON CIG/VSBY TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL VALUES.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  60  31  45 /  60  90  30   5
ATLANTA         47  49  30  45 /  90 100  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     42  45  26  43 / 100 100  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    40  42  26  44 / 100 100  10   5
COLUMBUS        61  62  35  48 /  70  80  20  10
GAINESVILLE     50  52  29  43 /  90 100  20   5
MACON           64  65  37  48 /  40  70  30  10
ROME            39  41  24  43 / 100 100  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  55  30  46 /  80  90  20   5
VIDALIA         64  75  41  44 /  10  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...FANNIN...FLOYD...
GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41



000
FXUS62 KCHS 050019
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
719 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND
WILL PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM COULD
IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND
REQUIRED ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THE EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL MIXED GIVEN THE PRE-FRONTAL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE FOG TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM OTHER THAN SEA
FOG NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS FOR LOWS
WE WENT ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE...MAINLY LOWER TO MID
60S MOST LOCALES.

NOTE...SAVANNAH AIRPORT REACHED 84 DEGREES SO FAR TODAY WHICH TIES
THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY PASSES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO AROUND 25 MPH.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. HIGHS WILL
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WITH CURRENT RECORDS EXPECTED TO
STAY SAFE. GIVEN UPPER FORCING AND INCREASING
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY
AND UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THUNDER TO A
MINIMUM...HOWEVER COULD NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE RUMBLES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP USHER
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE
MID 30S/LOW 40S. FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WINDS OVER LAKE MOULTRIE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE
FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN
FORECAST AREA IS SITUATED IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER JET AND FORCING FROM WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PTYPE AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN
INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY AND PERHAPS SPREADING INTO THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY REGION FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WET BULB PROGS SHOW THE FREEZING LINE NUDGING DOWN INTO OUR
NORTHERN SC ZONES. MOISTURE WILL BE ONE OF THE BIGGER
QUESTIONS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT A WINDOW WHERE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 30-40 DEGREES COLDER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY START TO
DRY OUT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND FREEZING. A
FREEZE WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AT
THE SURFACE...WHILE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ALOFT. LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATE A BIT ALTHOUGH STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE REMAINS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO WAVER FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION AND FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND TO
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS DURING EARLY TO MID WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
SE STATES DURING THIS TIME. WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR UNTIL AFTER 06Z...THEN IFR/LIFR CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER THE TERMINALS OR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD THEN RETURN 15Z-18Z THURSDAY.
ALSO...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS IN TAFS FOR TONIGHT...THEN
MIXING WILL PROMOTE SW GUSTS 20-25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THURSDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY CROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE
23Z-02Z TIME FRAME...ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP WIND SHIFT AND SURGE
OF NE WINDS...AS WELL AS MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS. SINCE THE
POTENTIAL COLD FROPA STRADDLES THE END OF THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD...THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT YET ADDRESSED WITHIN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY N TO NE SURFACE WINDS. A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL EXIST
AT KCHS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRES AND VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT/LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY DUE TO
THE LIMITED MIXING OVER THE COOL NEARSHORE WATERS. MAIN CONCERN IS
SEA FOG WHICH HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT ALONG
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. SINCE WE EXPECT MORE LOW CLOUDS/FOG
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN WE
CONTINUED WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
THE BEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
PASSES THROUGH THE WATER THURSDAY EVENING. WARM MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT... THUS HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE FORECAST. AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
WATERS...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE PROVIDING FAVORABLE MIXING
PROFILES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO BE MIXED TO
THE SURFACE. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR NEARSHORE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND OUTER GA WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINING COASTAL
WATERS INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ330.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ352.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ350.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB/SPR
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ECT/SPR
MARINE...ECT/RJB/SPR
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 050019
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
719 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND
WILL PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM COULD
IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND
REQUIRED ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THE EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL MIXED GIVEN THE PRE-FRONTAL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE FOG TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM OTHER THAN SEA
FOG NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS FOR LOWS
WE WENT ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE...MAINLY LOWER TO MID
60S MOST LOCALES.

NOTE...SAVANNAH AIRPORT REACHED 84 DEGREES SO FAR TODAY WHICH TIES
THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY PASSES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO AROUND 25 MPH.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. HIGHS WILL
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WITH CURRENT RECORDS EXPECTED TO
STAY SAFE. GIVEN UPPER FORCING AND INCREASING
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY
AND UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THUNDER TO A
MINIMUM...HOWEVER COULD NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE RUMBLES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP USHER
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE
MID 30S/LOW 40S. FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WINDS OVER LAKE MOULTRIE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE
FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN
FORECAST AREA IS SITUATED IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER JET AND FORCING FROM WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PTYPE AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN
INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY AND PERHAPS SPREADING INTO THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY REGION FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WET BULB PROGS SHOW THE FREEZING LINE NUDGING DOWN INTO OUR
NORTHERN SC ZONES. MOISTURE WILL BE ONE OF THE BIGGER
QUESTIONS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT A WINDOW WHERE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 30-40 DEGREES COLDER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY START TO
DRY OUT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND FREEZING. A
FREEZE WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AT
THE SURFACE...WHILE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ALOFT. LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATE A BIT ALTHOUGH STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE REMAINS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO WAVER FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION AND FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND TO
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS DURING EARLY TO MID WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
SE STATES DURING THIS TIME. WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR UNTIL AFTER 06Z...THEN IFR/LIFR CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER THE TERMINALS OR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD THEN RETURN 15Z-18Z THURSDAY.
ALSO...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS IN TAFS FOR TONIGHT...THEN
MIXING WILL PROMOTE SW GUSTS 20-25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THURSDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY CROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE
23Z-02Z TIME FRAME...ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP WIND SHIFT AND SURGE
OF NE WINDS...AS WELL AS MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS. SINCE THE
POTENTIAL COLD FROPA STRADDLES THE END OF THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD...THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT YET ADDRESSED WITHIN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY N TO NE SURFACE WINDS. A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL EXIST
AT KCHS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRES AND VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT/LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY DUE TO
THE LIMITED MIXING OVER THE COOL NEARSHORE WATERS. MAIN CONCERN IS
SEA FOG WHICH HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT ALONG
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. SINCE WE EXPECT MORE LOW CLOUDS/FOG
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN WE
CONTINUED WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
THE BEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
PASSES THROUGH THE WATER THURSDAY EVENING. WARM MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT... THUS HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE FORECAST. AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
WATERS...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE PROVIDING FAVORABLE MIXING
PROFILES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO BE MIXED TO
THE SURFACE. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR NEARSHORE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND OUTER GA WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINING COASTAL
WATERS INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ330.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ352.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ350.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB/SPR
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ECT/SPR
MARINE...ECT/RJB/SPR
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 050019
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
719 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND
WILL PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM COULD
IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND
REQUIRED ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THE EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL MIXED GIVEN THE PRE-FRONTAL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE FOG TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM OTHER THAN SEA
FOG NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS FOR LOWS
WE WENT ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE...MAINLY LOWER TO MID
60S MOST LOCALES.

NOTE...SAVANNAH AIRPORT REACHED 84 DEGREES SO FAR TODAY WHICH TIES
THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY PASSES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO AROUND 25 MPH.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. HIGHS WILL
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WITH CURRENT RECORDS EXPECTED TO
STAY SAFE. GIVEN UPPER FORCING AND INCREASING
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY
AND UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THUNDER TO A
MINIMUM...HOWEVER COULD NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE RUMBLES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP USHER
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE
MID 30S/LOW 40S. FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WINDS OVER LAKE MOULTRIE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE
FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN
FORECAST AREA IS SITUATED IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER JET AND FORCING FROM WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PTYPE AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN
INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY AND PERHAPS SPREADING INTO THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY REGION FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WET BULB PROGS SHOW THE FREEZING LINE NUDGING DOWN INTO OUR
NORTHERN SC ZONES. MOISTURE WILL BE ONE OF THE BIGGER
QUESTIONS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT A WINDOW WHERE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 30-40 DEGREES COLDER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY START TO
DRY OUT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND FREEZING. A
FREEZE WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AT
THE SURFACE...WHILE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ALOFT. LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATE A BIT ALTHOUGH STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE REMAINS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO WAVER FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION AND FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND TO
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS DURING EARLY TO MID WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
SE STATES DURING THIS TIME. WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR UNTIL AFTER 06Z...THEN IFR/LIFR CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER THE TERMINALS OR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD THEN RETURN 15Z-18Z THURSDAY.
ALSO...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS IN TAFS FOR TONIGHT...THEN
MIXING WILL PROMOTE SW GUSTS 20-25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THURSDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY CROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE
23Z-02Z TIME FRAME...ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP WIND SHIFT AND SURGE
OF NE WINDS...AS WELL AS MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS. SINCE THE
POTENTIAL COLD FROPA STRADDLES THE END OF THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD...THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT YET ADDRESSED WITHIN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY N TO NE SURFACE WINDS. A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL EXIST
AT KCHS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRES AND VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT/LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY DUE TO
THE LIMITED MIXING OVER THE COOL NEARSHORE WATERS. MAIN CONCERN IS
SEA FOG WHICH HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT ALONG
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. SINCE WE EXPECT MORE LOW CLOUDS/FOG
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN WE
CONTINUED WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
THE BEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
PASSES THROUGH THE WATER THURSDAY EVENING. WARM MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT... THUS HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE FORECAST. AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
WATERS...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE PROVIDING FAVORABLE MIXING
PROFILES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO BE MIXED TO
THE SURFACE. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR NEARSHORE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND OUTER GA WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINING COASTAL
WATERS INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ330.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ352.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ350.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB/SPR
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ECT/SPR
MARINE...ECT/RJB/SPR
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 050019
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
719 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND
WILL PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM COULD
IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND
REQUIRED ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THE EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL MIXED GIVEN THE PRE-FRONTAL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE FOG TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM OTHER THAN SEA
FOG NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS FOR LOWS
WE WENT ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE...MAINLY LOWER TO MID
60S MOST LOCALES.

NOTE...SAVANNAH AIRPORT REACHED 84 DEGREES SO FAR TODAY WHICH TIES
THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY PASSES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO AROUND 25 MPH.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. HIGHS WILL
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WITH CURRENT RECORDS EXPECTED TO
STAY SAFE. GIVEN UPPER FORCING AND INCREASING
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY
AND UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THUNDER TO A
MINIMUM...HOWEVER COULD NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE RUMBLES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP USHER
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE
MID 30S/LOW 40S. FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WINDS OVER LAKE MOULTRIE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE
FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN
FORECAST AREA IS SITUATED IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER JET AND FORCING FROM WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PTYPE AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN
INLAND BERKELEY COUNTY AND PERHAPS SPREADING INTO THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY REGION FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WET BULB PROGS SHOW THE FREEZING LINE NUDGING DOWN INTO OUR
NORTHERN SC ZONES. MOISTURE WILL BE ONE OF THE BIGGER
QUESTIONS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT A WINDOW WHERE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 30-40 DEGREES COLDER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY START TO
DRY OUT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND FREEZING. A
FREEZE WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AT
THE SURFACE...WHILE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ALOFT. LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATE A BIT ALTHOUGH STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE REMAINS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO WAVER FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION AND FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND TO
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS DURING EARLY TO MID WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
SE STATES DURING THIS TIME. WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR UNTIL AFTER 06Z...THEN IFR/LIFR CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER THE TERMINALS OR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD THEN RETURN 15Z-18Z THURSDAY.
ALSO...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS IN TAFS FOR TONIGHT...THEN
MIXING WILL PROMOTE SW GUSTS 20-25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THURSDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY CROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE
23Z-02Z TIME FRAME...ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP WIND SHIFT AND SURGE
OF NE WINDS...AS WELL AS MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS. SINCE THE
POTENTIAL COLD FROPA STRADDLES THE END OF THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD...THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT YET ADDRESSED WITHIN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY N TO NE SURFACE WINDS. A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL EXIST
AT KCHS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRES AND VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT/LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY DUE TO
THE LIMITED MIXING OVER THE COOL NEARSHORE WATERS. MAIN CONCERN IS
SEA FOG WHICH HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT ALONG
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. SINCE WE EXPECT MORE LOW CLOUDS/FOG
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN WE
CONTINUED WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
THE BEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
PASSES THROUGH THE WATER THURSDAY EVENING. WARM MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT... THUS HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE FORECAST. AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
WATERS...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE PROVIDING FAVORABLE MIXING
PROFILES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO BE MIXED TO
THE SURFACE. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR NEARSHORE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND OUTER GA WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINING COASTAL
WATERS INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ330.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ352.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ350.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB/SPR
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ECT/SPR
MARINE...ECT/RJB/SPR
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 050009
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
709 PM EST WED MAR  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BACK TO THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NW STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MS NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN VA WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT BY 12Z THAT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
UPSTATE. THIS TIMING IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND MILD SW
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD OVERNIGHT.
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY
MARCH. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS IN THE LOWER 60S AND WILL STAY
CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NW. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE POP BY LATE TONIGHT TOWARD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA TO START OFF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 60S BEFORE FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...HIGH WILL OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S...THEN BEGINNING TO FALL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE PEAK HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALONG WITH THE
FRONT...THE REGION CAN EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
GUSTY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA.
DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS IF THE PRECIP WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE CWA BY THE TIME ANY TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING.
HOWEVER IF THE TIMING IS OFF ON EITHER THE PRECIP OR TEMPERATURES...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

FRIDAY MORNING WILL START OFF COLD...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST. AREAS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGH THE
DAY...WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH
COLDER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF SHORE.
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DO
EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP
TONIGHT...SO COULD SEE WIND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH CIGS BECOMING LIFR AROUND
06Z FOR AGS/DNL AND 07Z-09Z AT CAE/CUB/OGB. VSBYS SHOULD ONLY LOWER
TO MVFR DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 15Z WITH RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME-FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 050009
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
709 PM EST WED MAR  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BACK TO THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NW STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MS NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN VA WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT BY 12Z THAT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
UPSTATE. THIS TIMING IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND MILD SW
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD OVERNIGHT.
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY
MARCH. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS IN THE LOWER 60S AND WILL STAY
CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NW. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE POP BY LATE TONIGHT TOWARD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA TO START OFF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 60S BEFORE FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...HIGH WILL OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S...THEN BEGINNING TO FALL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE PEAK HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALONG WITH THE
FRONT...THE REGION CAN EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
GUSTY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA.
DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS IF THE PRECIP WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE CWA BY THE TIME ANY TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING.
HOWEVER IF THE TIMING IS OFF ON EITHER THE PRECIP OR TEMPERATURES...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

FRIDAY MORNING WILL START OFF COLD...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST. AREAS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGH THE
DAY...WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH
COLDER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF SHORE.
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DO
EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP
TONIGHT...SO COULD SEE WIND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH CIGS BECOMING LIFR AROUND
06Z FOR AGS/DNL AND 07Z-09Z AT CAE/CUB/OGB. VSBYS SHOULD ONLY LOWER
TO MVFR DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 15Z WITH RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME-FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 050009
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
709 PM EST WED MAR  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BACK TO THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NW STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MS NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN VA WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT BY 12Z THAT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
UPSTATE. THIS TIMING IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND MILD SW
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD OVERNIGHT.
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY
MARCH. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS IN THE LOWER 60S AND WILL STAY
CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NW. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE POP BY LATE TONIGHT TOWARD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA TO START OFF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 60S BEFORE FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...HIGH WILL OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S...THEN BEGINNING TO FALL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE PEAK HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALONG WITH THE
FRONT...THE REGION CAN EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
GUSTY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA.
DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS IF THE PRECIP WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE CWA BY THE TIME ANY TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING.
HOWEVER IF THE TIMING IS OFF ON EITHER THE PRECIP OR TEMPERATURES...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

FRIDAY MORNING WILL START OFF COLD...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST. AREAS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGH THE
DAY...WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH
COLDER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF SHORE.
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DO
EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP
TONIGHT...SO COULD SEE WIND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH CIGS BECOMING LIFR AROUND
06Z FOR AGS/DNL AND 07Z-09Z AT CAE/CUB/OGB. VSBYS SHOULD ONLY LOWER
TO MVFR DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 15Z WITH RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME-FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 050009
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
709 PM EST WED MAR  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BACK TO THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NW STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MS NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN VA WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT BY 12Z THAT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
UPSTATE. THIS TIMING IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND MILD SW
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD OVERNIGHT.
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY
MARCH. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS IN THE LOWER 60S AND WILL STAY
CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NW. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE POP BY LATE TONIGHT TOWARD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA TO START OFF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 60S BEFORE FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...HIGH WILL OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S...THEN BEGINNING TO FALL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE PEAK HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALONG WITH THE
FRONT...THE REGION CAN EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
GUSTY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA.
DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS IF THE PRECIP WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE CWA BY THE TIME ANY TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING.
HOWEVER IF THE TIMING IS OFF ON EITHER THE PRECIP OR TEMPERATURES...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

FRIDAY MORNING WILL START OFF COLD...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST. AREAS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGH THE
DAY...WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH
COLDER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF SHORE.
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DO
EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP
TONIGHT...SO COULD SEE WIND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH CIGS BECOMING LIFR AROUND
06Z FOR AGS/DNL AND 07Z-09Z AT CAE/CUB/OGB. VSBYS SHOULD ONLY LOWER
TO MVFR DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 15Z WITH RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME-FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 042355
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
649 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HOPEFULLY THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP THIS
SEASON...BUT UNFORTUNATELY FOR FOLKS IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA THERE
DEFINITELY IS A CHANCE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION WITH DEEP SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SHORTWAVE DAMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BEST DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE PUSH MORE INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
GEORGIA.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE SOIL AND ROAD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN ON AND OFF
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
DEFINITELY FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH 12Z HIGHS AT SOME
LOCATIONS. UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT QUITE A BIT AND
BUFR PROFILES AT KCHA REALLY TELL THE STORY WELL...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BETWEEN 02-05Z THURSDAY AND THE LOW LEVEL
COLD LAYER DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MORE LIKE 09-10Z. EXPECT THAT
RAIN WILL START MIXING WITH SLEET CLOSE TO 12Z...AND AS THE COLD
NOSE STRENGTHENS AND THE WARM NOSE /AN IMPRESSIVE +10C/ REMAINS
STRONG...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. BEST CHANCES OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN
12-18Z THURSDAY BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP AS LATE AS 21Z.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON QPF AND FINAL P-TYPE...
BUT THINKING NOW IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD BEFORE WITH LESS
THAN 1/4 INCH SLEET AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ICE.

WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A LOW-END /AND FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE/ WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A HANDFUL OF NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. WILL EXPAND THE SPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE METRO...
NOT NECESSARILY FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BRIEF MIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND MORE SO FOR THE BLACK
ICE POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
MOISTURE ON THE ROADS TO DRY BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR BLACK ICE IS DEFINITELY THE WARM GROUND/ROAD TEMPERATURES
OUT THERE TODAY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO GENERALLY MOVE OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAYBE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT...AS ALWAYS...FORECASTS MAY CHANGE. THE FRONT MAY
SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN...AND PRECIP MAY LINGER OR MOVE OUT FASTER.
ANY CHANGES MAY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT PRODUCTS SO AS ALWAYS
IT IS IMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.


TDP

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO IFR AFTER 06Z ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITN RAIN AND
FOG TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING WITH PROBABLY SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO
15KT WITH SOME GUSTS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AFTER 02Z. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z THURSDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON CIG/VSBY TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL VALUES.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  60  31  45 /  60  90  30   5
ATLANTA         47  49  30  45 /  90 100  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     42  45  26  43 / 100 100  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    40  42  26  44 / 100 100  10   5
COLUMBUS        61  62  35  48 /  70  80  20  10
GAINESVILLE     50  52  29  43 /  90 100  20   5
MACON           64  65  37  48 /  40  70  30  10
ROME            39  41  24  43 / 100 100  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  55  30  46 /  80  90  20   5
VIDALIA         64  75  41  44 /  10  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...FANNIN...FLOYD...
GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41



000
FXUS62 KFFC 042355
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
649 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HOPEFULLY THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP THIS
SEASON...BUT UNFORTUNATELY FOR FOLKS IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA THERE
DEFINITELY IS A CHANCE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION WITH DEEP SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SHORTWAVE DAMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BEST DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE PUSH MORE INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
GEORGIA.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE SOIL AND ROAD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN ON AND OFF
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
DEFINITELY FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH 12Z HIGHS AT SOME
LOCATIONS. UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT QUITE A BIT AND
BUFR PROFILES AT KCHA REALLY TELL THE STORY WELL...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BETWEEN 02-05Z THURSDAY AND THE LOW LEVEL
COLD LAYER DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MORE LIKE 09-10Z. EXPECT THAT
RAIN WILL START MIXING WITH SLEET CLOSE TO 12Z...AND AS THE COLD
NOSE STRENGTHENS AND THE WARM NOSE /AN IMPRESSIVE +10C/ REMAINS
STRONG...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. BEST CHANCES OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN
12-18Z THURSDAY BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP AS LATE AS 21Z.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON QPF AND FINAL P-TYPE...
BUT THINKING NOW IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD BEFORE WITH LESS
THAN 1/4 INCH SLEET AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ICE.

WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A LOW-END /AND FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE/ WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A HANDFUL OF NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. WILL EXPAND THE SPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE METRO...
NOT NECESSARILY FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BRIEF MIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND MORE SO FOR THE BLACK
ICE POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
MOISTURE ON THE ROADS TO DRY BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR BLACK ICE IS DEFINITELY THE WARM GROUND/ROAD TEMPERATURES
OUT THERE TODAY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO GENERALLY MOVE OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAYBE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT...AS ALWAYS...FORECASTS MAY CHANGE. THE FRONT MAY
SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN...AND PRECIP MAY LINGER OR MOVE OUT FASTER.
ANY CHANGES MAY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT PRODUCTS SO AS ALWAYS
IT IS IMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.


TDP

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO IFR AFTER 06Z ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITN RAIN AND
FOG TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING WITH PROBABLY SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO
15KT WITH SOME GUSTS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AFTER 02Z. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z THURSDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON CIG/VSBY TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL VALUES.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  60  31  45 /  60  90  30   5
ATLANTA         47  49  30  45 /  90 100  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     42  45  26  43 / 100 100  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    40  42  26  44 / 100 100  10   5
COLUMBUS        61  62  35  48 /  70  80  20  10
GAINESVILLE     50  52  29  43 /  90 100  20   5
MACON           64  65  37  48 /  40  70  30  10
ROME            39  41  24  43 / 100 100  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  55  30  46 /  80  90  20   5
VIDALIA         64  75  41  44 /  10  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...FANNIN...FLOYD...
GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KFFC 042355
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
649 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HOPEFULLY THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP THIS
SEASON...BUT UNFORTUNATELY FOR FOLKS IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA THERE
DEFINITELY IS A CHANCE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION WITH DEEP SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SHORTWAVE DAMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BEST DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE PUSH MORE INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
GEORGIA.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE SOIL AND ROAD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN ON AND OFF
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
DEFINITELY FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH 12Z HIGHS AT SOME
LOCATIONS. UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT QUITE A BIT AND
BUFR PROFILES AT KCHA REALLY TELL THE STORY WELL...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BETWEEN 02-05Z THURSDAY AND THE LOW LEVEL
COLD LAYER DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MORE LIKE 09-10Z. EXPECT THAT
RAIN WILL START MIXING WITH SLEET CLOSE TO 12Z...AND AS THE COLD
NOSE STRENGTHENS AND THE WARM NOSE /AN IMPRESSIVE +10C/ REMAINS
STRONG...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. BEST CHANCES OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN
12-18Z THURSDAY BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP AS LATE AS 21Z.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON QPF AND FINAL P-TYPE...
BUT THINKING NOW IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD BEFORE WITH LESS
THAN 1/4 INCH SLEET AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ICE.

WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A LOW-END /AND FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE/ WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A HANDFUL OF NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. WILL EXPAND THE SPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE METRO...
NOT NECESSARILY FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BRIEF MIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND MORE SO FOR THE BLACK
ICE POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
MOISTURE ON THE ROADS TO DRY BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR BLACK ICE IS DEFINITELY THE WARM GROUND/ROAD TEMPERATURES
OUT THERE TODAY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO GENERALLY MOVE OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAYBE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT...AS ALWAYS...FORECASTS MAY CHANGE. THE FRONT MAY
SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN...AND PRECIP MAY LINGER OR MOVE OUT FASTER.
ANY CHANGES MAY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT PRODUCTS SO AS ALWAYS
IT IS IMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.


TDP

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO IFR AFTER 06Z ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITN RAIN AND
FOG TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING WITH PROBABLY SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO
15KT WITH SOME GUSTS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AFTER 02Z. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z THURSDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON CIG/VSBY TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL VALUES.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  60  31  45 /  60  90  30   5
ATLANTA         47  49  30  45 /  90 100  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     42  45  26  43 / 100 100  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    40  42  26  44 / 100 100  10   5
COLUMBUS        61  62  35  48 /  70  80  20  10
GAINESVILLE     50  52  29  43 /  90 100  20   5
MACON           64  65  37  48 /  40  70  30  10
ROME            39  41  24  43 / 100 100  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  55  30  46 /  80  90  20   5
VIDALIA         64  75  41  44 /  10  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...FANNIN...FLOYD...
GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41



000
FXUS62 KFFC 042355
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
649 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HOPEFULLY THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP THIS
SEASON...BUT UNFORTUNATELY FOR FOLKS IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA THERE
DEFINITELY IS A CHANCE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION WITH DEEP SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SHORTWAVE DAMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BEST DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE PUSH MORE INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
GEORGIA.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE SOIL AND ROAD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN ON AND OFF
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
DEFINITELY FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH 12Z HIGHS AT SOME
LOCATIONS. UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT QUITE A BIT AND
BUFR PROFILES AT KCHA REALLY TELL THE STORY WELL...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BETWEEN 02-05Z THURSDAY AND THE LOW LEVEL
COLD LAYER DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MORE LIKE 09-10Z. EXPECT THAT
RAIN WILL START MIXING WITH SLEET CLOSE TO 12Z...AND AS THE COLD
NOSE STRENGTHENS AND THE WARM NOSE /AN IMPRESSIVE +10C/ REMAINS
STRONG...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. BEST CHANCES OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN
12-18Z THURSDAY BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP AS LATE AS 21Z.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON QPF AND FINAL P-TYPE...
BUT THINKING NOW IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD BEFORE WITH LESS
THAN 1/4 INCH SLEET AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ICE.

WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A LOW-END /AND FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE/ WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A HANDFUL OF NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. WILL EXPAND THE SPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE METRO...
NOT NECESSARILY FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BRIEF MIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND MORE SO FOR THE BLACK
ICE POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
MOISTURE ON THE ROADS TO DRY BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR BLACK ICE IS DEFINITELY THE WARM GROUND/ROAD TEMPERATURES
OUT THERE TODAY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO GENERALLY MOVE OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAYBE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT...AS ALWAYS...FORECASTS MAY CHANGE. THE FRONT MAY
SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN...AND PRECIP MAY LINGER OR MOVE OUT FASTER.
ANY CHANGES MAY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT PRODUCTS SO AS ALWAYS
IT IS IMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.


TDP

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO IFR AFTER 06Z ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITN RAIN AND
FOG TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING WITH PROBABLY SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO
15KT WITH SOME GUSTS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AFTER 02Z. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z THURSDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON CIG/VSBY TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL VALUES.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  60  31  45 /  60  90  30   5
ATLANTA         47  49  30  45 /  90 100  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     42  45  26  43 / 100 100  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    40  42  26  44 / 100 100  10   5
COLUMBUS        61  62  35  48 /  70  80  20  10
GAINESVILLE     50  52  29  43 /  90 100  20   5
MACON           64  65  37  48 /  40  70  30  10
ROME            39  41  24  43 / 100 100  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  55  30  46 /  80  90  20   5
VIDALIA         64  75  41  44 /  10  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...FANNIN...FLOYD...
GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KCAE 042215
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
515 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BACK TO THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NW STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MS NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN VA WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT BY 12Z THAT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
UPSTATE. THIS TIMING IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND MILD SW
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD OVERNIGHT.
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY
MARCH. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS IN THE LOWER 60S AND WILL STAY
CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NW. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE POP BY LATE TONIGHT TOWARD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA TO START OFF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 60S BEFORE FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...HIGH WILL OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S...THEN BEGINNING TO FALL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE PEAK HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALONG WITH THE
FRONT...THE REGION CAN EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
GUSTY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA.
DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS IF THE PRECIP WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE CWA BY THE TIME ANY TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING.
HOWEVER IF THE TIMING IS OFF ON EITHER THE PRECIP OR TEMPERATURES...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

FRIDAY MORNING WILL START OFF COLD...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST. AREAS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGH THE
DAY...WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH
COLDER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF SHORE.
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DO
EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AFTER
SUNSET. HOWEVER...A LOW LEVEL JET 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL KEEP WINDS UP
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH CIGS BECOMING LIFR AFTER 03Z AGS/DNL
AND BY 07Z CAE/CUB/OGB. VSBYS SHOULD ONLY LOWER TO MVFR DUE TO
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP. BY 13Z...AS COLD
FRONT MOVES CLOSER EXPECT WIND TO INCREASE ONCE MORE. AFTER 18Z
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. ALSO EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 042215
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
515 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BACK TO THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NW STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MS NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN VA WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT BY 12Z THAT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
UPSTATE. THIS TIMING IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND MILD SW
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD OVERNIGHT.
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY
MARCH. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS IN THE LOWER 60S AND WILL STAY
CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NW. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE POP BY LATE TONIGHT TOWARD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA TO START OFF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 60S BEFORE FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...HIGH WILL OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S...THEN BEGINNING TO FALL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE PEAK HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALONG WITH THE
FRONT...THE REGION CAN EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
GUSTY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA.
DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS IF THE PRECIP WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE CWA BY THE TIME ANY TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING.
HOWEVER IF THE TIMING IS OFF ON EITHER THE PRECIP OR TEMPERATURES...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

FRIDAY MORNING WILL START OFF COLD...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST. AREAS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGH THE
DAY...WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH
COLDER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF SHORE.
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DO
EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AFTER
SUNSET. HOWEVER...A LOW LEVEL JET 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL KEEP WINDS UP
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH CIGS BECOMING LIFR AFTER 03Z AGS/DNL
AND BY 07Z CAE/CUB/OGB. VSBYS SHOULD ONLY LOWER TO MVFR DUE TO
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP. BY 13Z...AS COLD
FRONT MOVES CLOSER EXPECT WIND TO INCREASE ONCE MORE. AFTER 18Z
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. ALSO EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 042121
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
421 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND
PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO
DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LOOKS LIKE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED
GIVEN THE PRE-FRONTAL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FOG TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM OTHER THAN SEA FOG NEAR
THE COAST. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE FOG MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS FOR LOWS WE WENT ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 60S MOST
LOCALES.

NOTE...SAVANNAH AIRPORT REACHED 84 DEGREES SO FAR TODAY WHICH TIES
THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY PASSES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO AROUND 25 MPH.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. HIGHS WILL
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WITH CURRENT RECORDS EXPECTED TO
STAY SAFE. GIVEN UPPER FORCING AND INCREASING
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY
AND UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THUNDER TO A
MINIMUM...HOWEVER COULD NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE RUMBLES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP USHER
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE
MID 30S/LOW 40S. FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WINDS OVER LAKE MOULTRIE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE
FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN
FORECAST AREA IS SITUATED IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER JET AND FORCING FROM WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PTYPE FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WET BULB PROGS SHOW THE FREEZING LINE NUDGING DOWN INTO OUR
NORTHERN SC ZONES. MOISTURE WILL BE ONE OF THE BIGGER
QUESTIONS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT A WINDOW WHERE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 30-40 DEGREES COLDER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY START TO
DRY OUT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND FREEZING. A FREEZE
WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AT
THE SURFACE...WHILE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ALOFT. LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATE A BIT ALTHOUGH STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE REMAINS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO WAVER FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION AND FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND TO
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS DURING EARLY TO MID WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
SE STATES DURING THIS TIME. WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 08Z WHEN LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP
AND/OR ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME SEA FOG COULD ALSO
IMPACT THE TERMS...ESPECIALLY KCHS. WE KEPT CONDS NO WORSE THAN
MVFR FOR NOW BUT THEY COULD GO LIFR TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY
CIGS. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...DUE TO THE STRONG LOW- LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TONIGHT AS SFC WINDS SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 10 KT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY N TO NE
SURFACE WINDS. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGH PRES AND VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT/LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY DUE TO
THE LIMITED MIXING OVER THE COOL NEARSHORE WATERS. MAIN CONCERN IS
SEA FOG WHICH HAS ALL BUT DISIPATED THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT ALONG
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. SINCE WE EXPECT MORE LOW CLOUDS/FOG
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN WE
CONTINUED WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
THE BEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
PASSES THROUGH THE WATER THURSDAY EVENING. WARM MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT... THUS HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE FORECAST. AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
WATERS...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE PROVIDING FAVORABLE MIXING
PROFILES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO BE MIXED TO
THE SURFACE. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR NEARSHORE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND OUTER GA WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINING COASTAL
WATERS INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 4 MARCH...
KCHS... 83/2004
KCXM... 80/1899
KSAV... 84/1955 /RECORD TIED TODAY/

RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ330.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ352.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ350.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ECT/RJB
MARINE...ECT/RJB
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 042121
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
421 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND
PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO
DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LOOKS LIKE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED
GIVEN THE PRE-FRONTAL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FOG TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM OTHER THAN SEA FOG NEAR
THE COAST. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE FOG MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS FOR LOWS WE WENT ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 60S MOST
LOCALES.

NOTE...SAVANNAH AIRPORT REACHED 84 DEGREES SO FAR TODAY WHICH TIES
THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY PASSES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO AROUND 25 MPH.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. HIGHS WILL
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WITH CURRENT RECORDS EXPECTED TO
STAY SAFE. GIVEN UPPER FORCING AND INCREASING
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY
AND UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THUNDER TO A
MINIMUM...HOWEVER COULD NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE RUMBLES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP USHER
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE
MID 30S/LOW 40S. FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WINDS OVER LAKE MOULTRIE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE
FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN
FORECAST AREA IS SITUATED IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER JET AND FORCING FROM WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PTYPE FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WET BULB PROGS SHOW THE FREEZING LINE NUDGING DOWN INTO OUR
NORTHERN SC ZONES. MOISTURE WILL BE ONE OF THE BIGGER
QUESTIONS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT A WINDOW WHERE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 30-40 DEGREES COLDER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY START TO
DRY OUT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND FREEZING. A FREEZE
WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AT
THE SURFACE...WHILE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ALOFT. LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATE A BIT ALTHOUGH STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE REMAINS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO WAVER FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION AND FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND TO
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS DURING EARLY TO MID WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
SE STATES DURING THIS TIME. WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 08Z WHEN LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP
AND/OR ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME SEA FOG COULD ALSO
IMPACT THE TERMS...ESPECIALLY KCHS. WE KEPT CONDS NO WORSE THAN
MVFR FOR NOW BUT THEY COULD GO LIFR TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY
CIGS. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...DUE TO THE STRONG LOW- LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TONIGHT AS SFC WINDS SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 10 KT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY N TO NE
SURFACE WINDS. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGH PRES AND VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT/LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY DUE TO
THE LIMITED MIXING OVER THE COOL NEARSHORE WATERS. MAIN CONCERN IS
SEA FOG WHICH HAS ALL BUT DISIPATED THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT ALONG
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. SINCE WE EXPECT MORE LOW CLOUDS/FOG
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN WE
CONTINUED WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
THE BEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
PASSES THROUGH THE WATER THURSDAY EVENING. WARM MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT... THUS HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE FORECAST. AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
WATERS...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE PROVIDING FAVORABLE MIXING
PROFILES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO BE MIXED TO
THE SURFACE. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR NEARSHORE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND OUTER GA WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINING COASTAL
WATERS INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 4 MARCH...
KCHS... 83/2004
KCXM... 80/1899
KSAV... 84/1955 /RECORD TIED TODAY/

RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ330.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ352.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ350.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ECT/RJB
MARINE...ECT/RJB
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 042121
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
421 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND
PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO
DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LOOKS LIKE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED
GIVEN THE PRE-FRONTAL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FOG TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM OTHER THAN SEA FOG NEAR
THE COAST. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE FOG MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS FOR LOWS WE WENT ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 60S MOST
LOCALES.

NOTE...SAVANNAH AIRPORT REACHED 84 DEGREES SO FAR TODAY WHICH TIES
THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY PASSES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO AROUND 25 MPH.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. HIGHS WILL
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WITH CURRENT RECORDS EXPECTED TO
STAY SAFE. GIVEN UPPER FORCING AND INCREASING
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY
AND UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THUNDER TO A
MINIMUM...HOWEVER COULD NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE RUMBLES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP USHER
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE
MID 30S/LOW 40S. FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WINDS OVER LAKE MOULTRIE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE
FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN
FORECAST AREA IS SITUATED IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER JET AND FORCING FROM WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PTYPE FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WET BULB PROGS SHOW THE FREEZING LINE NUDGING DOWN INTO OUR
NORTHERN SC ZONES. MOISTURE WILL BE ONE OF THE BIGGER
QUESTIONS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT A WINDOW WHERE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 30-40 DEGREES COLDER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY START TO
DRY OUT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND FREEZING. A FREEZE
WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AT
THE SURFACE...WHILE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ALOFT. LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATE A BIT ALTHOUGH STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE REMAINS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO WAVER FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION AND FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND TO
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS DURING EARLY TO MID WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
SE STATES DURING THIS TIME. WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 08Z WHEN LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP
AND/OR ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME SEA FOG COULD ALSO
IMPACT THE TERMS...ESPECIALLY KCHS. WE KEPT CONDS NO WORSE THAN
MVFR FOR NOW BUT THEY COULD GO LIFR TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY
CIGS. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...DUE TO THE STRONG LOW- LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TONIGHT AS SFC WINDS SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 10 KT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY N TO NE
SURFACE WINDS. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGH PRES AND VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT/LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY DUE TO
THE LIMITED MIXING OVER THE COOL NEARSHORE WATERS. MAIN CONCERN IS
SEA FOG WHICH HAS ALL BUT DISIPATED THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT ALONG
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. SINCE WE EXPECT MORE LOW CLOUDS/FOG
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN WE
CONTINUED WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
THE BEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
PASSES THROUGH THE WATER THURSDAY EVENING. WARM MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT... THUS HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE FORECAST. AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
WATERS...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE PROVIDING FAVORABLE MIXING
PROFILES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO BE MIXED TO
THE SURFACE. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR NEARSHORE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND OUTER GA WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINING COASTAL
WATERS INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 4 MARCH...
KCHS... 83/2004
KCXM... 80/1899
KSAV... 84/1955 /RECORD TIED TODAY/

RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ330.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ352.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ350.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ECT/RJB
MARINE...ECT/RJB
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 042121
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
421 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND
PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO
DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD
IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LOOKS LIKE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED
GIVEN THE PRE-FRONTAL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FOG TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM OTHER THAN SEA FOG NEAR
THE COAST. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE FOG MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS FOR LOWS WE WENT ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 60S MOST
LOCALES.

NOTE...SAVANNAH AIRPORT REACHED 84 DEGREES SO FAR TODAY WHICH TIES
THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY PASSES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO AROUND 25 MPH.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. HIGHS WILL
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WITH CURRENT RECORDS EXPECTED TO
STAY SAFE. GIVEN UPPER FORCING AND INCREASING
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY
AND UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THUNDER TO A
MINIMUM...HOWEVER COULD NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE RUMBLES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP USHER
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE
MID 30S/LOW 40S. FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY
WINDS OVER LAKE MOULTRIE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE
FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN
FORECAST AREA IS SITUATED IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER JET AND FORCING FROM WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PTYPE FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WET BULB PROGS SHOW THE FREEZING LINE NUDGING DOWN INTO OUR
NORTHERN SC ZONES. MOISTURE WILL BE ONE OF THE BIGGER
QUESTIONS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT A WINDOW WHERE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 30-40 DEGREES COLDER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY START TO
DRY OUT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND FREEZING. A FREEZE
WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AT
THE SURFACE...WHILE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ALOFT. LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATE A BIT ALTHOUGH STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE REMAINS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO WAVER FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION AND FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND TO
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS DURING EARLY TO MID WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
SE STATES DURING THIS TIME. WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 08Z WHEN LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP
AND/OR ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME SEA FOG COULD ALSO
IMPACT THE TERMS...ESPECIALLY KCHS. WE KEPT CONDS NO WORSE THAN
MVFR FOR NOW BUT THEY COULD GO LIFR TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY
CIGS. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...DUE TO THE STRONG LOW- LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TONIGHT AS SFC WINDS SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 10 KT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY N TO NE
SURFACE WINDS. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGH PRES AND VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT/LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY DUE TO
THE LIMITED MIXING OVER THE COOL NEARSHORE WATERS. MAIN CONCERN IS
SEA FOG WHICH HAS ALL BUT DISIPATED THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT ALONG
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. SINCE WE EXPECT MORE LOW CLOUDS/FOG
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN WE
CONTINUED WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
THE BEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
PASSES THROUGH THE WATER THURSDAY EVENING. WARM MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT... THUS HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE FORECAST. AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
WATERS...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE PROVIDING FAVORABLE MIXING
PROFILES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO BE MIXED TO
THE SURFACE. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR NEARSHORE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND OUTER GA WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINING COASTAL
WATERS INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 4 MARCH...
KCHS... 83/2004
KCXM... 80/1899
KSAV... 84/1955 /RECORD TIED TODAY/

RECORD HIGHS FOR 5 MARCH...
KCHS... 85/1997
KCXM... 84/1923
KSAV... 86/1955

RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS FOR 6 MARCH...
KCHS... 43/1960
KCXM... 43/1960
KSAV... 42/1901

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ330.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ352.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ350.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ECT/RJB
MARINE...ECT/RJB
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 042104
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
404 PM EST WED MAR  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BACK TO THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE WEDGE HAS FINALLY BROKEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA. SOME LOWER CUMULUS CLOUDS HANGING ON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
IN THE WARMER AIRMASS. STRONG SW WINDS HAVE MIXED DOWN AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE LATE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S
NORTH...AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. SOME RC WINDS
MESONET SITES HAVE REPORTED GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. HELD OFF ON LAKE
WIND ADVISORY DUE TO LESS MIXING OVER THE COOLER LAKE
WATERS...LAKE MURRAY WATER TEMP 47. CRITERIA FOR A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS AT LEAST 21 KTS SUSTAINED AN/OR FREQUENT GUSTS GREATER
THAN 25 KTS. THINK WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE AREA LAKES WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT STILL
WILL BE BREEZY ON THE AREA LAKES AND OVER THE LAND AREAS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NW STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MS
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN VA WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION. EXPECT BY 12Z THAT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
UPSTATE. THIS TIMING IS IN PRETTY AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS.
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND MILD SW
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD OVERNIGHT.
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY
MARCH. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS IN THE LOWER 60S AND WILL STAY
CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NW. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE POP BY LATE TONIGHT TOWARD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA TO START OFF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 60S BEFORE FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...HIGH WILL OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S...THEN BEGINNING TO FALL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE PEAK HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALONG WITH THE
FRONT...THE REGION CAN EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
GUSTY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA.
DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS IF THE PRECIP WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE CWA BY THE TIME ANY TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING.
HOWEVER IF THE TIMING IS OFF ON EITHER THE PRECIP OR TEMPERATURES...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

FRIDAY MORNING WILL START OFF COLD...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST. AREAS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGH THE
DAY...WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH
COLDER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF SHORE.
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DO
EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.


&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AFTER
SUNSET. HOWEVER...A LOW LEVEL JET 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL KEEP WINDS UP
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH CIGS BECOMING LIFR AFTER 03Z AGS/DNL
AND BY 07Z CAE/CUB/OGB. VSBYS SHOULD ONLY LOWER TO MVFR DUE TO
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP. BY 13Z...AS COLD
FRONT MOVES CLOSER EXPECT WIND TO INCREASE ONCE MORE. AFTER 18Z
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. ALSO EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 042104
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
404 PM EST WED MAR  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BACK TO THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE WEDGE HAS FINALLY BROKEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA. SOME LOWER CUMULUS CLOUDS HANGING ON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
IN THE WARMER AIRMASS. STRONG SW WINDS HAVE MIXED DOWN AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE LATE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S
NORTH...AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. SOME RC WINDS
MESONET SITES HAVE REPORTED GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. HELD OFF ON LAKE
WIND ADVISORY DUE TO LESS MIXING OVER THE COOLER LAKE
WATERS...LAKE MURRAY WATER TEMP 47. CRITERIA FOR A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS AT LEAST 21 KTS SUSTAINED AN/OR FREQUENT GUSTS GREATER
THAN 25 KTS. THINK WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE AREA LAKES WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT STILL
WILL BE BREEZY ON THE AREA LAKES AND OVER THE LAND AREAS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NW STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MS
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN VA WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION. EXPECT BY 12Z THAT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
UPSTATE. THIS TIMING IS IN PRETTY AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS.
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND MILD SW
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD OVERNIGHT.
ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY
MARCH. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS IN THE LOWER 60S AND WILL STAY
CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...POPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NW. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE POP BY LATE TONIGHT TOWARD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA TO START OFF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 60S BEFORE FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...HIGH WILL OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S...THEN BEGINNING TO FALL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE PEAK HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALONG WITH THE
FRONT...THE REGION CAN EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
GUSTY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA.
DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS IF THE PRECIP WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE CWA BY THE TIME ANY TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING.
HOWEVER IF THE TIMING IS OFF ON EITHER THE PRECIP OR TEMPERATURES...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

FRIDAY MORNING WILL START OFF COLD...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST. AREAS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGH THE
DAY...WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH
COLDER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF SHORE.
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DO
EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.


&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AFTER
SUNSET. HOWEVER...A LOW LEVEL JET 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL KEEP WINDS UP
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH CIGS BECOMING LIFR AFTER 03Z AGS/DNL
AND BY 07Z CAE/CUB/OGB. VSBYS SHOULD ONLY LOWER TO MVFR DUE TO
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP. BY 13Z...AS COLD
FRONT MOVES CLOSER EXPECT WIND TO INCREASE ONCE MORE. AFTER 18Z
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. ALSO EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 042104
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
404 PM EST WED MAR  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BACK TO THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR TH