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000
FXUS62 KFFC 282355 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
755 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN INTO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...A SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF ATLANTA TO
ATHENS WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS NORTH GA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS WERE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN AREA
OF VERY HIGH CAPE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. SPC HAS
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR AREA JUST SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS
TO MACON LINE. THIS AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY STABILIZE BY EARLY EVENING
AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. DEW POINTS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH LOW DEW POINTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY APPROACH RECORD MIN TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING A DRY DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY.

41


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM MID SHIFT WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION
THRU MID WEEK BEFORE THE DEEP WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. NW WILL TRANSITION TO SW FLOW WILL INCREASE
ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SCHC OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WEEKEND A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO STALL OUT OVER
THE REGION. THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEFS BOTH HOLD THE TROUGH AND SW IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
WEEKEND WE SHOULD HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ARG


&&

.CLIMATE...


RECORDS FOR 07-28

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     75 1977     77 1936     59 1911
                            1926
   KATL     101 1952     69 1977     77 1981     62 1911
   KCSG     100 1993     81 1977     77 2010     67 1954
                1952
   KMCN     101 1993     76 1977     77 1958     62 1911
                1952                    1936



RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952



RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958




&&

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA THROUGH
04Z...BUT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
NORTHWEST 8-12KT WITH GUSTS 14-18KT THROUGH 04Z...DIMINISHING TO
4-8KT AFTER. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH GUSTS 14-18KT
AFTER 14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  87  64  86 /  10   5   5   5
ATLANTA         66  85  65  84 /  10   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     60  79  55  78 /  10  10   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    62  84  61  84 /   5   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        67  89  66  86 /  20   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     65  84  64  81 /  10   5   5   5
MACON           65  90  63  86 /  20   5   5   5
ROME            62  85  61  84 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  63  85  60  85 /  10   5   5   5
VIDALIA         71  91  67  91 /  60   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....ARG
AVIATION...41









000
FXUS62 KFFC 282355 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
755 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN INTO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...A SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF ATLANTA TO
ATHENS WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS NORTH GA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS WERE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN AREA
OF VERY HIGH CAPE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. SPC HAS
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR AREA JUST SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS
TO MACON LINE. THIS AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY STABILIZE BY EARLY EVENING
AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. DEW POINTS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH LOW DEW POINTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY APPROACH RECORD MIN TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING A DRY DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY.

41


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM MID SHIFT WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION
THRU MID WEEK BEFORE THE DEEP WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. NW WILL TRANSITION TO SW FLOW WILL INCREASE
ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SCHC OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WEEKEND A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO STALL OUT OVER
THE REGION. THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEFS BOTH HOLD THE TROUGH AND SW IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
WEEKEND WE SHOULD HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ARG


&&

.CLIMATE...


RECORDS FOR 07-28

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     75 1977     77 1936     59 1911
                            1926
   KATL     101 1952     69 1977     77 1981     62 1911
   KCSG     100 1993     81 1977     77 2010     67 1954
                1952
   KMCN     101 1993     76 1977     77 1958     62 1911
                1952                    1936



RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952



RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958




&&

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA THROUGH
04Z...BUT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
NORTHWEST 8-12KT WITH GUSTS 14-18KT THROUGH 04Z...DIMINISHING TO
4-8KT AFTER. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH GUSTS 14-18KT
AFTER 14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  87  64  86 /  10   5   5   5
ATLANTA         66  85  65  84 /  10   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     60  79  55  78 /  10  10   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    62  84  61  84 /   5   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        67  89  66  86 /  20   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     65  84  64  81 /  10   5   5   5
MACON           65  90  63  86 /  20   5   5   5
ROME            62  85  61  84 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  63  85  60  85 /  10   5   5   5
VIDALIA         71  91  67  91 /  60   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....ARG
AVIATION...41







  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCAE 282354
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
754 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TODAY. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL ENTER OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE MIDLANDS WITH AREA WSR-
88D NETWORK SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOW COUNTRY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOW
DRIER AIR BLANKETING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 WITH DEWPOINTS
AROUND 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE DRIER
AIR TO CONTINUE FLOWING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING STEADILY WITH SUNSET AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER. FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS WILL DIRECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS WE ENTER INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...ALONG WITH ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN AS WE ENTER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR. SCATTERED DIURNAL HIGH BASED
CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH LATE EVENING BUT SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NORTHERLY BY 06Z AND REMAIN
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AROUND 5
TO 7 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A COMBINATION OF WIND AND HIGH CLOUDINESS PROVIDED WARM MIN TEMPS
THIS MORNING...82 AT CAE AND 80 AT AGS.

RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JUL 28TH AT COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES LAST SET IN 1936.

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 28TH IS
82...ALSO SET IN 1936.

LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED AT
MIDNIGHT EST..OR 100 AM EDT...TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SO...SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THE DAILY HIGH MIN TEMP RECORD FOR THE CALENDAR DAY OF JULY 28TH WILL
BE TIED OR BROKEN AT CAE. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT CAE BY 100 AM EDT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 282354
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
754 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TODAY. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL ENTER OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE MIDLANDS WITH AREA WSR-
88D NETWORK SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOW COUNTRY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOW
DRIER AIR BLANKETING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 WITH DEWPOINTS
AROUND 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE DRIER
AIR TO CONTINUE FLOWING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING STEADILY WITH SUNSET AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER. FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS WILL DIRECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS WE ENTER INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...ALONG WITH ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN AS WE ENTER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR. SCATTERED DIURNAL HIGH BASED
CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH LATE EVENING BUT SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NORTHERLY BY 06Z AND REMAIN
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AROUND 5
TO 7 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A COMBINATION OF WIND AND HIGH CLOUDINESS PROVIDED WARM MIN TEMPS
THIS MORNING...82 AT CAE AND 80 AT AGS.

RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JUL 28TH AT COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES LAST SET IN 1936.

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 28TH IS
82...ALSO SET IN 1936.

LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED AT
MIDNIGHT EST..OR 100 AM EDT...TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SO...SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THE DAILY HIGH MIN TEMP RECORD FOR THE CALENDAR DAY OF JULY 28TH WILL
BE TIED OR BROKEN AT CAE. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT CAE BY 100 AM EDT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCHS 282343
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
743 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE ALLOWED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM EDT
AS SCHEDULED.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE THE
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
UNSEASONABLY ROBUST COLD FRONT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
IMPRESSIVE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 4000 K/JG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INDICATIVE OF THE EXTREME
DESTABILIZATION THAT HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE HOT AND
HUMID AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KT WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL CREATE AMPLE SHEAR TO
SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITHIN STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE
HAIL IS ALSO A POTENTIAL HAZARD WITHIN DEEP UPDRAFTS. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL 9 PM EDT TO ACCOUNT FOR ORGANIZED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG
AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT JUST TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
OF THE INLAND ZONES. THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF BOTH EXISTING
STORMS AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. OVERALL CONSENSUS IS THAT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD MIDNIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR ALL LAND AREAS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

WIND DIRECTIONS WILL STEADILY VEER TO NORTHWEST/NORTH BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT LATE TONIGHT...AND EXPECT NOTABLY COOLER
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM AROUND 69 TO 70 DEGREES FAR INLAND TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT BECOMES STATIONARY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. ALOFT...A
BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FOR MID SUMMER
WILL SET UP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR
COOLER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS NORTH OF WHAT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RETURN
OVER THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A
SHOWER AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS ALONG A
SEABREEZE.

THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE TRANSITIONING INTO A COASTAL TROUGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES IN
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST NEAR THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST.
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS DURING PEAK HEATING...OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BIGGEST IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DIRECT IMPACT
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. SO FAR...COVERAGE HAS BEEN QUITE ISOLATED AND
BASED ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM OF THE TERMINALS...THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT NEITHER WILL TAKE A DIRECT HIT. THEREFORE...I
HAVE KEPT VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS. THEREAFTER...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY WITH TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR INTO WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ACROSS
THE MARINE ZONES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4
FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT BEYOND. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES
BY LATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEED DIMINISH.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY
VEERING AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW AND REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 TO
12 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS SURFACE FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME
EASTERLY COMPONENT AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...DPB/WMS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 282343
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
743 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE ALLOWED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM EDT
AS SCHEDULED.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE THE
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
UNSEASONABLY ROBUST COLD FRONT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
IMPRESSIVE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 4000 K/JG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INDICATIVE OF THE EXTREME
DESTABILIZATION THAT HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE HOT AND
HUMID AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KT WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL CREATE AMPLE SHEAR TO
SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITHIN STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE
HAIL IS ALSO A POTENTIAL HAZARD WITHIN DEEP UPDRAFTS. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL 9 PM EDT TO ACCOUNT FOR ORGANIZED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG
AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT JUST TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
OF THE INLAND ZONES. THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF BOTH EXISTING
STORMS AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. OVERALL CONSENSUS IS THAT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD MIDNIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR ALL LAND AREAS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

WIND DIRECTIONS WILL STEADILY VEER TO NORTHWEST/NORTH BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT LATE TONIGHT...AND EXPECT NOTABLY COOLER
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM AROUND 69 TO 70 DEGREES FAR INLAND TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT BECOMES STATIONARY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. ALOFT...A
BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FOR MID SUMMER
WILL SET UP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR
COOLER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS NORTH OF WHAT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RETURN
OVER THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A
SHOWER AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS ALONG A
SEABREEZE.

THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE TRANSITIONING INTO A COASTAL TROUGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES IN
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST NEAR THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST.
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS DURING PEAK HEATING...OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BIGGEST IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DIRECT IMPACT
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. SO FAR...COVERAGE HAS BEEN QUITE ISOLATED AND
BASED ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM OF THE TERMINALS...THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT NEITHER WILL TAKE A DIRECT HIT. THEREFORE...I
HAVE KEPT VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS. THEREAFTER...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY WITH TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR INTO WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ACROSS
THE MARINE ZONES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4
FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT BEYOND. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES
BY LATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEED DIMINISH.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY
VEERING AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW AND REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 TO
12 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS SURFACE FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME
EASTERLY COMPONENT AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...DPB/WMS
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS62 KCAE 282308
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
708 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TODAY. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL ENTER OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE MIDLANDS WITH AREA WSR-
88D NETWORK SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOW COUNTRY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOW
DRIER AIR BLANKETING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 WITH DEWPOINTS
AROUND 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE DRIER
AIR TO CONTINUE FLOWING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING STEADILY WITH SUNSET AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER. FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS WILL DIRECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS WE ENTER INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...ALONG WITH ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN AS WE ENTER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING 18Z-24Z AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
TAF SITES.

AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH FRONTAL LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD INTENSIFY EAST OF CAE/CUB...AND MAYBE JUST EAST OF
DNL/AGS. HAVE INDICATED VCTS FOR OGB 21Z-24Z GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF
TIMING AND COVERAGE. WESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 5
TO 10 KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A COMBINATION OF WIND AND HIGH CLOUDINESS PROVIDED WARM MIN TEMPS
THIS MORNING...82 AT CAE AND 80 AT AGS.

RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JUL 28TH AT COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES LAST SET IN 1936.

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 28TH IS
82...ALSO SET IN 1936.

LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED AT
MIDNIGHT EST..OR 100 AM EDT...TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SO...SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THE DAILY HIGH MIN TEMP RECORD FOR THE CALENDAR DAY OF JULY 28TH WILL
BE TIED OR BROKEN AT CAE. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT CAE BY 100 AM EDT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 282308
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
708 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TODAY. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL ENTER OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE MIDLANDS WITH AREA WSR-
88D NETWORK SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOW COUNTRY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOW
DRIER AIR BLANKETING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 WITH DEWPOINTS
AROUND 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE DRIER
AIR TO CONTINUE FLOWING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING STEADILY WITH SUNSET AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER. FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS WILL DIRECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS WE ENTER INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...ALONG WITH ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN AS WE ENTER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING 18Z-24Z AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
TAF SITES.

AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH FRONTAL LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD INTENSIFY EAST OF CAE/CUB...AND MAYBE JUST EAST OF
DNL/AGS. HAVE INDICATED VCTS FOR OGB 21Z-24Z GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF
TIMING AND COVERAGE. WESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 5
TO 10 KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A COMBINATION OF WIND AND HIGH CLOUDINESS PROVIDED WARM MIN TEMPS
THIS MORNING...82 AT CAE AND 80 AT AGS.

RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JUL 28TH AT COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES LAST SET IN 1936.

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 28TH IS
82...ALSO SET IN 1936.

LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED AT
MIDNIGHT EST..OR 100 AM EDT...TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SO...SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THE DAILY HIGH MIN TEMP RECORD FOR THE CALENDAR DAY OF JULY 28TH WILL
BE TIED OR BROKEN AT CAE. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT CAE BY 100 AM EDT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCHS 282303
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
703 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE ALLOWED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM EDT
AS SCHEDULED.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE THE
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
UNSEASONABLY ROBUST COLD FRONT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
IMPRESSIVE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 4000 K/JG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INDICATIVE OF THE EXTREME
DESTABILIZATION THAT HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE HOT AND
HUMID AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KT WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL CREATE AMPLE SHEAR TO
SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITHIN STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE
HAIL IS ALSO A POTENTIAL HAZARD WITHIN DEEP UPDRAFTS. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL 9 PM EDT TO ACCOUNT FOR ORGANIZED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG
AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT JUST TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
OF THE INLAND ZONES. THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF BOTH EXISTING
STORMS AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. OVERALL CONSENSUS IS THAT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD MIDNIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR ALL LAND AREAS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

WIND DIRECTIONS WILL STEADILY VEER TO NORTHWEST/NORTH BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT LATE TONIGHT...AND EXPECT NOTABLY COOLER
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM AROUND 69 TO 70 DEGREES FAR INLAND TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT BECOMES STATIONARY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. ALOFT...A
BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FOR MID SUMMER
WILL SET UP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR
COOLER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS NORTH OF WHAT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RETURN
OVER THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A
SHOWER AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS ALONG A
SEABREEZE.

THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE TRANSITIONING INTO A COASTAL TROUGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES IN
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST NEAR THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST.
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS DURING PEAK HEATING...OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT BOTH TAF
SITES OUTSIDE OF LATE DAY AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INDICATED
VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM ABOUT 20Z THROUGH 04Z...WITH EARLIER
IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT KCHS. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO GROUPS TO NARROW
DOWN PERIODS OF TSRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO JUST TWO TO THREE
HOURS...HOWEVER ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACCORDING TO
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE NOTABLY STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WITH VFR
WEATHER AND STEADILY VEERING WINDS AFTER 03Z TO 04Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ACROSS
THE MARINE ZONES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4
FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT BEYOND. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES
BY LATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEED DIMINISH.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY
VEERING AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW AND REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 TO
12 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS SURFACE FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME
EASTERLY COMPONENT AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WMS/DPB
MARINE...WMS/DPB
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 282029
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
429 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE CAPPING INVERSION THAT HAD BEEN MITIGATING THE STRENGTH OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME HAS EFFECTIVELY BEEN BROKEN...AND CONVECTION HAS
QUICKLY INTENSIFIED ACCORDINGLY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
IMPRESSIVE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF 5000 K/JG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...INDICATIVE OF THE EXTREME DESTABILIZATION
THAT HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON
HOURS. MID LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KT WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL CREATE AMPLE SHEAR TO SUPPORT DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITHIN STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL HAZARD WITHIN DEEP UPDRAFTS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 9 PM EDT TO
ACCOUNT FOR ORGANIZED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT JUST TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE INLAND
ZONES. EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO PEAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...GENERALLY SHIFTING
EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD
MIDNIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR ALL LAND AREAS
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE HEAT INDICES STILL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE BY 4 PM EDT. ANY AREAS IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL EXPERIENCE RAPID COOLING. OUTSIDE
OF THESE LOCATIONS...THE ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 7 PM EDT. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL STEADILY VEER TO
NORTHWEST/NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT LATE TONIGHT...AND
EXPECT NOTABLY COOLER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM AROUND 69 TO 70 DEGREES
FAR INLAND TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT BECOMES STATIONARY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. ALOFT...A
BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FOR MID SUMMER
WILL SET UP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR
COOLER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS NORTH OF WHAT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RETURN
OVER THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A
SHOWER AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS ALONG A
SEABREEZE.

THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE TRANSITIONING INTO A COASTAL TROUGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES IN
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST NEAR THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST.
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS DURING PEAK HEATING...OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT BOTH TAF
SITES OUTSIDE OF LATE DAY AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
HAVE INDICATED VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM ABOUT 20Z THROUGH
04Z...WITH EARLIER IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT KCHS. HAVE MAINTAINED
TEMPO GROUPS TO NARROW DOWN PERIODS OF TSRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO
JUST TWO TO THREE HOURS...HOWEVER ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED ACCORDING TO CONVECTIVE TRENDS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE NOTABLY
STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. CONVECTION WILL EXIT
THE AREA TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...WITH VFR WEATHER AND STEADILY VEERING WINDS AFTER 03Z TO
04Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ACROSS
THE MARINE ZONES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4
FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT BEYOND. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES
BY LATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEED DIMINISH.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY
VEERING AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW AND REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 TO
12 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS SURFACE FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME
EASTERLY COMPONENT AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WMS/DPB
MARINE...WMS/DPB
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 282029
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
429 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE CAPPING INVERSION THAT HAD BEEN MITIGATING THE STRENGTH OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME HAS EFFECTIVELY BEEN BROKEN...AND CONVECTION HAS
QUICKLY INTENSIFIED ACCORDINGLY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
IMPRESSIVE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF 5000 K/JG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...INDICATIVE OF THE EXTREME DESTABILIZATION
THAT HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON
HOURS. MID LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KT WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL CREATE AMPLE SHEAR TO SUPPORT DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITHIN STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL HAZARD WITHIN DEEP UPDRAFTS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 9 PM EDT TO
ACCOUNT FOR ORGANIZED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT JUST TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE INLAND
ZONES. EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO PEAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...GENERALLY SHIFTING
EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD
MIDNIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR ALL LAND AREAS
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE HEAT INDICES STILL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE BY 4 PM EDT. ANY AREAS IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL EXPERIENCE RAPID COOLING. OUTSIDE
OF THESE LOCATIONS...THE ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 7 PM EDT. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL STEADILY VEER TO
NORTHWEST/NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT LATE TONIGHT...AND
EXPECT NOTABLY COOLER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM AROUND 69 TO 70 DEGREES
FAR INLAND TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT BECOMES STATIONARY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. ALOFT...A
BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FOR MID SUMMER
WILL SET UP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR
COOLER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS NORTH OF WHAT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RETURN
OVER THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A
SHOWER AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS ALONG A
SEABREEZE.

THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE TRANSITIONING INTO A COASTAL TROUGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES IN
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST NEAR THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST.
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS DURING PEAK HEATING...OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT BOTH TAF
SITES OUTSIDE OF LATE DAY AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
HAVE INDICATED VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM ABOUT 20Z THROUGH
04Z...WITH EARLIER IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT KCHS. HAVE MAINTAINED
TEMPO GROUPS TO NARROW DOWN PERIODS OF TSRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO
JUST TWO TO THREE HOURS...HOWEVER ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED ACCORDING TO CONVECTIVE TRENDS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE NOTABLY
STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. CONVECTION WILL EXIT
THE AREA TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...WITH VFR WEATHER AND STEADILY VEERING WINDS AFTER 03Z TO
04Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ACROSS
THE MARINE ZONES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4
FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT BEYOND. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES
BY LATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEED DIMINISH.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY
VEERING AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW AND REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 TO
12 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS SURFACE FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME
EASTERLY COMPONENT AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WMS/DPB
MARINE...WMS/DPB
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KFFC 281942
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN INTO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...A SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF ATLANTA TO
ATHENS WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS NORTH GA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS WERE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN AREA
OF VERY HIGH CAPE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. SPC HAS
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR AREA JUST SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS
TO MACON LINE. THIS AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY STABILIZE BY EARLY EVENING
AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. DEW POINTS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH LOW DEW POINTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY APPROACH RECORD MIN TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING A DRY DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY.

41


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM MID SHIFT WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION
THRU MID WEEK BEFORE THE DEEP WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. NW WILL TRANSITION TO SW FLOW WILL INCREASE
ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SCHC OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WEEKEND A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO STALL OUT OVER
THE REGION. THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEFS BOTH HOLD THE TROUGH AND SW IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
WEEKEND WE SHOULD HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ARG


&&

.CLIMATE...


RECORDS FOR 07-28

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     75 1977     77 1936     59 1911
                            1926
   KATL     101 1952     69 1977     77 1981     62 1911
   KCSG     100 1993     81 1977     77 2010     67 1954
                1952
   KMCN     101 1993     76 1977     77 1958     62 1911
                1952                    1936



RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952



RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SURFACE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF ATL TO AHN. ACROSS CENTRAL GA SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG.
CONVECTION ENDING EARLY EVENING. NORTH GA TAF SITES VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SC TATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z. VFR ON
TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10KT OCCASIONALLY GUSTY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING CONVECTION... HIGH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  87  64  86 /  10   5   5   5
ATLANTA         66  85  65  84 /  10   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     60  79  55  78 /  10  10   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    62  84  61  84 /   5   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        67  89  66  86 /  20   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     65  84  64  81 /  10   5   5   5
MACON           65  90  63  86 /  20   5   5   5
ROME            62  85  61  84 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  63  85  60  85 /  10   5   5   5
VIDALIA         71  91  67  91 /  60   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....ARG
AVIATION...41





000
FXUS62 KFFC 281942
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN INTO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...A SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF ATLANTA TO
ATHENS WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS NORTH GA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS WERE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN AREA
OF VERY HIGH CAPE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. SPC HAS
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR AREA JUST SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS
TO MACON LINE. THIS AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY STABILIZE BY EARLY EVENING
AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. DEW POINTS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH LOW DEW POINTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY APPROACH RECORD MIN TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING A DRY DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY.

41


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM MID SHIFT WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION
THRU MID WEEK BEFORE THE DEEP WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. NW WILL TRANSITION TO SW FLOW WILL INCREASE
ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SCHC OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WEEKEND A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO STALL OUT OVER
THE REGION. THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEFS BOTH HOLD THE TROUGH AND SW IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
WEEKEND WE SHOULD HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ARG


&&

.CLIMATE...


RECORDS FOR 07-28

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     75 1977     77 1936     59 1911
                            1926
   KATL     101 1952     69 1977     77 1981     62 1911
   KCSG     100 1993     81 1977     77 2010     67 1954
                1952
   KMCN     101 1993     76 1977     77 1958     62 1911
                1952                    1936



RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952



RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SURFACE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF ATL TO AHN. ACROSS CENTRAL GA SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG.
CONVECTION ENDING EARLY EVENING. NORTH GA TAF SITES VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SC TATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z. VFR ON
TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10KT OCCASIONALLY GUSTY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING CONVECTION... HIGH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  87  64  86 /  10   5   5   5
ATLANTA         66  85  65  84 /  10   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     60  79  55  78 /  10  10   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    62  84  61  84 /   5   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        67  89  66  86 /  20   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     65  84  64  81 /  10   5   5   5
MACON           65  90  63  86 /  20   5   5   5
ROME            62  85  61  84 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  63  85  60  85 /  10   5   5   5
VIDALIA         71  91  67  91 /  60   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....ARG
AVIATION...41





000
FXUS62 KFFC 281942
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN INTO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...A SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF ATLANTA TO
ATHENS WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS NORTH GA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS WERE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN AREA
OF VERY HIGH CAPE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. SPC HAS
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR AREA JUST SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS
TO MACON LINE. THIS AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY STABILIZE BY EARLY EVENING
AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. DEW POINTS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH LOW DEW POINTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY APPROACH RECORD MIN TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING A DRY DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY.

41


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM MID SHIFT WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION
THRU MID WEEK BEFORE THE DEEP WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. NW WILL TRANSITION TO SW FLOW WILL INCREASE
ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SCHC OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WEEKEND A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO STALL OUT OVER
THE REGION. THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEFS BOTH HOLD THE TROUGH AND SW IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
WEEKEND WE SHOULD HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ARG


&&

.CLIMATE...


RECORDS FOR 07-28

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     75 1977     77 1936     59 1911
                            1926
   KATL     101 1952     69 1977     77 1981     62 1911
   KCSG     100 1993     81 1977     77 2010     67 1954
                1952
   KMCN     101 1993     76 1977     77 1958     62 1911
                1952                    1936



RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952



RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SURFACE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF ATL TO AHN. ACROSS CENTRAL GA SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG.
CONVECTION ENDING EARLY EVENING. NORTH GA TAF SITES VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SC TATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z. VFR ON
TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10KT OCCASIONALLY GUSTY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING CONVECTION... HIGH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  87  64  86 /  10   5   5   5
ATLANTA         66  85  65  84 /  10   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     60  79  55  78 /  10  10   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    62  84  61  84 /   5   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        67  89  66  86 /  20   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     65  84  64  81 /  10   5   5   5
MACON           65  90  63  86 /  20   5   5   5
ROME            62  85  61  84 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  63  85  60  85 /  10   5   5   5
VIDALIA         71  91  67  91 /  60   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....ARG
AVIATION...41





000
FXUS62 KFFC 281942
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN INTO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...A SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF ATLANTA TO
ATHENS WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS NORTH GA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS WERE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN AREA
OF VERY HIGH CAPE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. SPC HAS
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR AREA JUST SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS
TO MACON LINE. THIS AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY STABILIZE BY EARLY EVENING
AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. DEW POINTS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH LOW DEW POINTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY APPROACH RECORD MIN TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING A DRY DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY.

41


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM MID SHIFT WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION
THRU MID WEEK BEFORE THE DEEP WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. NW WILL TRANSITION TO SW FLOW WILL INCREASE
ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SCHC OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WEEKEND A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO STALL OUT OVER
THE REGION. THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEFS BOTH HOLD THE TROUGH AND SW IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
WEEKEND WE SHOULD HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ARG


&&

.CLIMATE...


RECORDS FOR 07-28

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     75 1977     77 1936     59 1911
                            1926
   KATL     101 1952     69 1977     77 1981     62 1911
   KCSG     100 1993     81 1977     77 2010     67 1954
                1952
   KMCN     101 1993     76 1977     77 1958     62 1911
                1952                    1936



RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952



RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SURFACE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF ATL TO AHN. ACROSS CENTRAL GA SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG.
CONVECTION ENDING EARLY EVENING. NORTH GA TAF SITES VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SC TATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z. VFR ON
TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10KT OCCASIONALLY GUSTY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING CONVECTION... HIGH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  87  64  86 /  10   5   5   5
ATLANTA         66  85  65  84 /  10   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     60  79  55  78 /  10  10   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    62  84  61  84 /   5   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        67  89  66  86 /  20   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     65  84  64  81 /  10   5   5   5
MACON           65  90  63  86 /  20   5   5   5
ROME            62  85  61  84 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  63  85  60  85 /  10   5   5   5
VIDALIA         71  91  67  91 /  60   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....ARG
AVIATION...41





000
FXUS62 KCHS 281818
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
218 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AND BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. A ROBUST LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE NORTH WILL STEADILY LIFT
THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ENTIRE EAST COAST.
THESE STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES ARE QUITE ANOMALOUS FOR
MID/LATE SUMMER...AND THUS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INDEED
HAVE THE ENERGY TO EVENTUALLY PROGRESS INTO AND SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

SOLID WEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN DRY MID LAYER AIR AND SUPPORT A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES INLAND AND LOW 90S NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO THE WARM WEST FLOW...A PINNED SEABREEZE...AND EVEN
SOME PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION EFFECTS. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S DURING PEAK HEATING...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AT 110
DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THUS THE ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS ON TRACK.

THE NEXT MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE STEADILY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION
WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE BEFORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INITIATES. THESE SOUNDINGS ARE OFTEN
DESCRIBED AS HAVING A LOADED GUN SIGNATURE...WITH NOTABLE
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION...THAT ONCE BROKEN WILL
ALLOW ACCESS TO A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND CONVECTIVELY CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT. INITIAL CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE INLAND AREAS
WITHIN BRISK WEST FLOW HAS STRUGGLED TO STRENGTHEN...EVIDENCE THAT
THE CAP IS STILL IN PLACE BY 2 PM EDT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AFTER 4 OR 5 PM...WHEN
STRONGER DYNAMICS CAN EFFECTIVELY BREAK THE CAPPING INVERSION.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG FORCING AND DYNAMICS ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE
CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL JETS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA...YET CONSIDERING 40 TO 45 KT MID LEVEL WINDS SPREADING
ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO A POTENTIAL HAZARD...AS HAIL CAPE VALUES REACH OR EXCEED 1000
J/KG BY 5 PM EDT. THIS COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL LEAD TO A MULTICELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AND SPREADS IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL CONTINUE AS STORMS PROGRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND EVENTUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BECOME ENHANCED NEAR THE
COASTLINE TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE
PINNED SEABREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT ITS PEAK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. RAIN
CHANCES DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
A DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE BY LATE TONIGHT. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S FAR INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.

A BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH FOR MID SUMMER WILL SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ONE THAT IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THIS SENDS THE COLD FRONT OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IT STALLS OUT ROUGHLY FROM BERMUDA TO
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY...INITIALLY THERE IS A BREAK FROM OUR HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OF LATE WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 8-10K FT WITH PWATS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TO AROUND 1 INCH...OR EVEN MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY THERE IS NO RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...QUITE A BIT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 14-16C. THIS EQUATES TO TEMPS
SOME 6-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES INLAND FROM US-17.

WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THERE IS A SUBTLE RISE IN MOISTURE FROM OFF THE OCEAN. THIS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO POP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT
SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE CAP IN PLACE
THIS SUPPORTS POPS NO MORE THAN A SILENT 14 PERCENT. SIMILAR 850 MB
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...SO LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS.

THURSDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SW ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT A LITTLE BACK TOWARD THE SE STATES AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH. THERE IS A FURTHER INFLUX OF MARITIME
MOISTURE WITHIN AN EAST-SE SYNOPTIC FLOW...BOOSTING PWATS BACK UP TO
WHAT IS MORE TYPICAL. FORCING FROM THIS NEARBY SURFACE FEATURE AND
THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
REALIZED. AN INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT BOTH TAF
SITES OUTSIDE OF LATE DAY AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WEST WINDS AT
KCHS AND KSAV HAVE BEEN BREEZY TO GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE APPALACHIAN REGION. EXPECT GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE INDICATED
VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM ABOUT 20Z THROUGH 04Z...WITH EARLIER
IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT KCHS. HAVE ALSO NARROWED DOWN THE ONGOING
TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO JUST TWO
HOURS...HOWEVER ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS CONVECTIVE
TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE NOTABLY STRONGER
WINDS AND LOWER FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE
AREA TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...WITH VFR WEATHER AND STEADILY VEERING WINDS AFTER 03Z TO
04Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND DURATION ARE TOO LOW TO RAISE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT
BEYOND. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS
FROM THE LAND TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS TO EVENTUALLY VEER
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 OR 12 KT
AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH /ALSO KNOWN AS A
COASTAL TROUGH/ WILL HAVE DEVELOPED NEARBY EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE/LL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE
HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL HAVE
RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND
THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 281818
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
218 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AND BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. A ROBUST LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE NORTH WILL STEADILY LIFT
THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ENTIRE EAST COAST.
THESE STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES ARE QUITE ANOMALOUS FOR
MID/LATE SUMMER...AND THUS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INDEED
HAVE THE ENERGY TO EVENTUALLY PROGRESS INTO AND SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

SOLID WEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN DRY MID LAYER AIR AND SUPPORT A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES INLAND AND LOW 90S NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO THE WARM WEST FLOW...A PINNED SEABREEZE...AND EVEN
SOME PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION EFFECTS. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S DURING PEAK HEATING...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AT 110
DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THUS THE ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS ON TRACK.

THE NEXT MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE STEADILY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION
WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE BEFORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INITIATES. THESE SOUNDINGS ARE OFTEN
DESCRIBED AS HAVING A LOADED GUN SIGNATURE...WITH NOTABLE
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION...THAT ONCE BROKEN WILL
ALLOW ACCESS TO A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND CONVECTIVELY CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT. INITIAL CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE INLAND AREAS
WITHIN BRISK WEST FLOW HAS STRUGGLED TO STRENGTHEN...EVIDENCE THAT
THE CAP IS STILL IN PLACE BY 2 PM EDT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AFTER 4 OR 5 PM...WHEN
STRONGER DYNAMICS CAN EFFECTIVELY BREAK THE CAPPING INVERSION.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG FORCING AND DYNAMICS ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE
CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL JETS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA...YET CONSIDERING 40 TO 45 KT MID LEVEL WINDS SPREADING
ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO A POTENTIAL HAZARD...AS HAIL CAPE VALUES REACH OR EXCEED 1000
J/KG BY 5 PM EDT. THIS COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL LEAD TO A MULTICELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AND SPREADS IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL CONTINUE AS STORMS PROGRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND EVENTUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BECOME ENHANCED NEAR THE
COASTLINE TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE
PINNED SEABREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT ITS PEAK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. RAIN
CHANCES DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
A DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE BY LATE TONIGHT. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S FAR INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.

A BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH FOR MID SUMMER WILL SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ONE THAT IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THIS SENDS THE COLD FRONT OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IT STALLS OUT ROUGHLY FROM BERMUDA TO
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY...INITIALLY THERE IS A BREAK FROM OUR HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OF LATE WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 8-10K FT WITH PWATS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TO AROUND 1 INCH...OR EVEN MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY THERE IS NO RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...QUITE A BIT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 14-16C. THIS EQUATES TO TEMPS
SOME 6-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES INLAND FROM US-17.

WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THERE IS A SUBTLE RISE IN MOISTURE FROM OFF THE OCEAN. THIS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO POP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT
SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE CAP IN PLACE
THIS SUPPORTS POPS NO MORE THAN A SILENT 14 PERCENT. SIMILAR 850 MB
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...SO LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS.

THURSDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SW ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT A LITTLE BACK TOWARD THE SE STATES AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH. THERE IS A FURTHER INFLUX OF MARITIME
MOISTURE WITHIN AN EAST-SE SYNOPTIC FLOW...BOOSTING PWATS BACK UP TO
WHAT IS MORE TYPICAL. FORCING FROM THIS NEARBY SURFACE FEATURE AND
THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
REALIZED. AN INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT BOTH TAF
SITES OUTSIDE OF LATE DAY AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WEST WINDS AT
KCHS AND KSAV HAVE BEEN BREEZY TO GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE APPALACHIAN REGION. EXPECT GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE INDICATED
VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM ABOUT 20Z THROUGH 04Z...WITH EARLIER
IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT KCHS. HAVE ALSO NARROWED DOWN THE ONGOING
TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO JUST TWO
HOURS...HOWEVER ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS CONVECTIVE
TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE NOTABLY STRONGER
WINDS AND LOWER FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE
AREA TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...WITH VFR WEATHER AND STEADILY VEERING WINDS AFTER 03Z TO
04Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND DURATION ARE TOO LOW TO RAISE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT
BEYOND. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS
FROM THE LAND TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS TO EVENTUALLY VEER
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 OR 12 KT
AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH /ALSO KNOWN AS A
COASTAL TROUGH/ WILL HAVE DEVELOPED NEARBY EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE/LL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE
HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL HAVE
RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND
THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 281818
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
218 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AND BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. A ROBUST LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE NORTH WILL STEADILY LIFT
THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ENTIRE EAST COAST.
THESE STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES ARE QUITE ANOMALOUS FOR
MID/LATE SUMMER...AND THUS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INDEED
HAVE THE ENERGY TO EVENTUALLY PROGRESS INTO AND SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

SOLID WEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN DRY MID LAYER AIR AND SUPPORT A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES INLAND AND LOW 90S NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO THE WARM WEST FLOW...A PINNED SEABREEZE...AND EVEN
SOME PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION EFFECTS. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S DURING PEAK HEATING...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AT 110
DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THUS THE ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS ON TRACK.

THE NEXT MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE STEADILY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION
WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE BEFORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INITIATES. THESE SOUNDINGS ARE OFTEN
DESCRIBED AS HAVING A LOADED GUN SIGNATURE...WITH NOTABLE
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION...THAT ONCE BROKEN WILL
ALLOW ACCESS TO A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND CONVECTIVELY CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT. INITIAL CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE INLAND AREAS
WITHIN BRISK WEST FLOW HAS STRUGGLED TO STRENGTHEN...EVIDENCE THAT
THE CAP IS STILL IN PLACE BY 2 PM EDT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AFTER 4 OR 5 PM...WHEN
STRONGER DYNAMICS CAN EFFECTIVELY BREAK THE CAPPING INVERSION.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG FORCING AND DYNAMICS ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE
CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL JETS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA...YET CONSIDERING 40 TO 45 KT MID LEVEL WINDS SPREADING
ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO A POTENTIAL HAZARD...AS HAIL CAPE VALUES REACH OR EXCEED 1000
J/KG BY 5 PM EDT. THIS COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL LEAD TO A MULTICELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AND SPREADS IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL CONTINUE AS STORMS PROGRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND EVENTUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BECOME ENHANCED NEAR THE
COASTLINE TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE
PINNED SEABREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT ITS PEAK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. RAIN
CHANCES DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
A DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE BY LATE TONIGHT. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S FAR INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.

A BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH FOR MID SUMMER WILL SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ONE THAT IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THIS SENDS THE COLD FRONT OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IT STALLS OUT ROUGHLY FROM BERMUDA TO
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY...INITIALLY THERE IS A BREAK FROM OUR HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OF LATE WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 8-10K FT WITH PWATS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TO AROUND 1 INCH...OR EVEN MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY THERE IS NO RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...QUITE A BIT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 14-16C. THIS EQUATES TO TEMPS
SOME 6-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES INLAND FROM US-17.

WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THERE IS A SUBTLE RISE IN MOISTURE FROM OFF THE OCEAN. THIS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO POP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT
SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE CAP IN PLACE
THIS SUPPORTS POPS NO MORE THAN A SILENT 14 PERCENT. SIMILAR 850 MB
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...SO LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS.

THURSDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SW ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT A LITTLE BACK TOWARD THE SE STATES AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH. THERE IS A FURTHER INFLUX OF MARITIME
MOISTURE WITHIN AN EAST-SE SYNOPTIC FLOW...BOOSTING PWATS BACK UP TO
WHAT IS MORE TYPICAL. FORCING FROM THIS NEARBY SURFACE FEATURE AND
THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
REALIZED. AN INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT BOTH TAF
SITES OUTSIDE OF LATE DAY AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WEST WINDS AT
KCHS AND KSAV HAVE BEEN BREEZY TO GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE APPALACHIAN REGION. EXPECT GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE INDICATED
VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM ABOUT 20Z THROUGH 04Z...WITH EARLIER
IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT KCHS. HAVE ALSO NARROWED DOWN THE ONGOING
TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO JUST TWO
HOURS...HOWEVER ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS CONVECTIVE
TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE NOTABLY STRONGER
WINDS AND LOWER FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE
AREA TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...WITH VFR WEATHER AND STEADILY VEERING WINDS AFTER 03Z TO
04Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND DURATION ARE TOO LOW TO RAISE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT
BEYOND. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS
FROM THE LAND TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS TO EVENTUALLY VEER
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 OR 12 KT
AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH /ALSO KNOWN AS A
COASTAL TROUGH/ WILL HAVE DEVELOPED NEARBY EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE/LL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE
HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL HAVE
RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND
THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 281818
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
218 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AND BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. A ROBUST LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE NORTH WILL STEADILY LIFT
THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ENTIRE EAST COAST.
THESE STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES ARE QUITE ANOMALOUS FOR
MID/LATE SUMMER...AND THUS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INDEED
HAVE THE ENERGY TO EVENTUALLY PROGRESS INTO AND SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

SOLID WEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN DRY MID LAYER AIR AND SUPPORT A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES INLAND AND LOW 90S NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO THE WARM WEST FLOW...A PINNED SEABREEZE...AND EVEN
SOME PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION EFFECTS. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S DURING PEAK HEATING...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AT 110
DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THUS THE ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS ON TRACK.

THE NEXT MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE STEADILY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION
WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE BEFORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INITIATES. THESE SOUNDINGS ARE OFTEN
DESCRIBED AS HAVING A LOADED GUN SIGNATURE...WITH NOTABLE
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION...THAT ONCE BROKEN WILL
ALLOW ACCESS TO A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND CONVECTIVELY CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT. INITIAL CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE INLAND AREAS
WITHIN BRISK WEST FLOW HAS STRUGGLED TO STRENGTHEN...EVIDENCE THAT
THE CAP IS STILL IN PLACE BY 2 PM EDT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AFTER 4 OR 5 PM...WHEN
STRONGER DYNAMICS CAN EFFECTIVELY BREAK THE CAPPING INVERSION.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG FORCING AND DYNAMICS ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE
CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL JETS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA...YET CONSIDERING 40 TO 45 KT MID LEVEL WINDS SPREADING
ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO A POTENTIAL HAZARD...AS HAIL CAPE VALUES REACH OR EXCEED 1000
J/KG BY 5 PM EDT. THIS COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL LEAD TO A MULTICELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AND SPREADS IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL CONTINUE AS STORMS PROGRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND EVENTUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BECOME ENHANCED NEAR THE
COASTLINE TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE
PINNED SEABREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT ITS PEAK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. RAIN
CHANCES DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
A DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE BY LATE TONIGHT. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S FAR INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.

A BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH FOR MID SUMMER WILL SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ONE THAT IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THIS SENDS THE COLD FRONT OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IT STALLS OUT ROUGHLY FROM BERMUDA TO
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY...INITIALLY THERE IS A BREAK FROM OUR HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OF LATE WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 8-10K FT WITH PWATS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TO AROUND 1 INCH...OR EVEN MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY THERE IS NO RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...QUITE A BIT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 14-16C. THIS EQUATES TO TEMPS
SOME 6-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES INLAND FROM US-17.

WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THERE IS A SUBTLE RISE IN MOISTURE FROM OFF THE OCEAN. THIS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO POP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT
SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE CAP IN PLACE
THIS SUPPORTS POPS NO MORE THAN A SILENT 14 PERCENT. SIMILAR 850 MB
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...SO LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS.

THURSDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SW ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT A LITTLE BACK TOWARD THE SE STATES AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH. THERE IS A FURTHER INFLUX OF MARITIME
MOISTURE WITHIN AN EAST-SE SYNOPTIC FLOW...BOOSTING PWATS BACK UP TO
WHAT IS MORE TYPICAL. FORCING FROM THIS NEARBY SURFACE FEATURE AND
THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
REALIZED. AN INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT BOTH TAF
SITES OUTSIDE OF LATE DAY AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WEST WINDS AT
KCHS AND KSAV HAVE BEEN BREEZY TO GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE APPALACHIAN REGION. EXPECT GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE INDICATED
VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM ABOUT 20Z THROUGH 04Z...WITH EARLIER
IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT KCHS. HAVE ALSO NARROWED DOWN THE ONGOING
TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO JUST TWO
HOURS...HOWEVER ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS CONVECTIVE
TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE NOTABLY STRONGER
WINDS AND LOWER FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE
AREA TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...WITH VFR WEATHER AND STEADILY VEERING WINDS AFTER 03Z TO
04Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND DURATION ARE TOO LOW TO RAISE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT
BEYOND. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS
FROM THE LAND TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS TO EVENTUALLY VEER
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 OR 12 KT
AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH /ALSO KNOWN AS A
COASTAL TROUGH/ WILL HAVE DEVELOPED NEARBY EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE/LL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE
HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL HAVE
RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND
THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KFFC 281753
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...

SURFACE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF ATLANTA TO ATHENS. HAVE TWEAKED THE POPS
ONLY SLIGHT. STILL HAVE BEST CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON.

41


.PREVIOUS...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS NORTH GA THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS NORTH GA WEAKENING EARLY THIS MORNING TO MAINLY JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE ATLANTA METRO
AREA BY 6 AM TO 8 AM THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND IS
NOTED AND EXPECTED... MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 20-30KT
WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE NOTED ACROSS NORTH GA THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD
OF THE CONVECTION. THIS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST AS THE CONVECTION PUSHES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER... SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE GREATEST STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS
CENTRAL GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO A MUCH MORE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES TOWARD A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BETWEEN 4-6 PM THIS
AFTERNOON... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONGER STORMS FIRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG...
COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT MID LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT RISK AREA
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD PUSH
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 8-10 PM THIS EVENING... WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

A MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS... AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY STRUGGLE TO
GET INTO THE MID 80S FOR NORTH GA... UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S LOOK
REASONABLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL GA ON TUESDAY.

39


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES IN OVER
THE REGION AND SETTLES IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH
PULLS IN SOME DRIER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUE/WED. BY THU MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYS 6 AND 7.

01


&&


.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SURFACE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF ATL TO AHN. ACROSS CENTRAL GA SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG.
CONVECTION ENDING EARLY EVENING. NORTH GA TAF SITES VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SCTATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z. VFR ON
TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10KT OCCASIONALLY GUSTY.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING CONVECTION... HIGH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.


41


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  64  87  64 /  50  10   5   5
ATLANTA         89  66  85  65 /  50  10   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     82  60  79  55 /  30  10  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    88  62  84  61 /  50   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        95  67  89  66 /  50  20   5   5
GAINESVILLE     89  65  84  64 /  50  10   5   5
MACON           97  65  90  63 /  60  20   5   5
ROME            88  62  85  61 /  40   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  90  63  85  60 /  50  10   5   5
VIDALIA         98  71  91  67 /  70  60   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...41















000
FXUS62 KFFC 281753
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...

SURFACE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF ATLANTA TO ATHENS. HAVE TWEAKED THE POPS
ONLY SLIGHT. STILL HAVE BEST CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON.

41


.PREVIOUS...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS NORTH GA THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS NORTH GA WEAKENING EARLY THIS MORNING TO MAINLY JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE ATLANTA METRO
AREA BY 6 AM TO 8 AM THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND IS
NOTED AND EXPECTED... MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 20-30KT
WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE NOTED ACROSS NORTH GA THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD
OF THE CONVECTION. THIS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST AS THE CONVECTION PUSHES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER... SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE GREATEST STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS
CENTRAL GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO A MUCH MORE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES TOWARD A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BETWEEN 4-6 PM THIS
AFTERNOON... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONGER STORMS FIRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG...
COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT MID LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT RISK AREA
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD PUSH
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 8-10 PM THIS EVENING... WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

A MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS... AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY STRUGGLE TO
GET INTO THE MID 80S FOR NORTH GA... UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S LOOK
REASONABLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL GA ON TUESDAY.

39


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES IN OVER
THE REGION AND SETTLES IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH
PULLS IN SOME DRIER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUE/WED. BY THU MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYS 6 AND 7.

01


&&


.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SURFACE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF ATL TO AHN. ACROSS CENTRAL GA SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG.
CONVECTION ENDING EARLY EVENING. NORTH GA TAF SITES VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SCTATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z. VFR ON
TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10KT OCCASIONALLY GUSTY.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING CONVECTION... HIGH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.


41


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  64  87  64 /  50  10   5   5
ATLANTA         89  66  85  65 /  50  10   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     82  60  79  55 /  30  10  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    88  62  84  61 /  50   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        95  67  89  66 /  50  20   5   5
GAINESVILLE     89  65  84  64 /  50  10   5   5
MACON           97  65  90  63 /  60  20   5   5
ROME            88  62  85  61 /  40   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  90  63  85  60 /  50  10   5   5
VIDALIA         98  71  91  67 /  70  60   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...41














000
FXUS62 KCAE 281729 CCA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
129 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TODAY. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL ENTER OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
17Z RADAR QUIET WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW IN UPSTATE SC.  HRRR/CAE
LOCAL WRF MODELS SHOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEGINNING BY MID AFTERNOON
IN THE MIDLANDS...SPREADING EAST TOWARD THE COAST AND INTENSIFYING
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON.  MAV/MET GUIDANCE GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON...LITTLE HIGHER SOUTHEASTERN THIRD. ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND 30+ KNOT 850 WIND.  SPC INCLUDES EASTERN
CLARENDON...ORANGEBURG AND BAMBERG COUNTIES IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREAS...THIS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION FAR EAST...GENERAL THUNDER ELSEWHERE. PRECIP SHUTS OFF
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONT MOVING OFF SHORE AROUND 06Z.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MIDDLE 90S...LOWS OVERNIGHT
MID TO UPPER 60S...MODEL BLEND REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER. FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS WILL DIRECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS WE ENTER INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...ALONG WITH ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN AS WE ENTER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING 18Z-24Z AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
TAF SITES.

AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH FRONTAL LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD INTENSIFY EAST OF CAE/CUB...AND MAYBE JUST EAST OF
DNL/AGS. HAVE INDICATED VCTS FOR OGB 21Z-24Z GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF
TIMING AND COVERAGE. WESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 5
TO 10 KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A COMBINATION OF WIND AND HIGH CLOUDINESS PROVIDED WARM MIN TEMPS
THIS MORNING...82 AT CAE AND 80 AT AGS.

RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JUL 28TH AT COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES LAST SET IN 1936.

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 28TH IS
82...ALSO SET IN 1936.

LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED AT
MIDNIGHT EST..OR 100 AM EDT...TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SO...SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THE DAILY HIGH MIN TEMP RECORD FOR THE CALENDAR DAY OF JULY 28TH WILL
BE TIED OR BROKEN AT CAE. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT CAE BY 100 AM EDT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 281716
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
116 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TODAY. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL ENTER OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
17Z RADAR QUIET WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW IN UPSTATE SC.  HRRR/CAE
LOCAL WRF MODELS SHOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEGINNING BY MID AFTERNOON
IN THE MIDLANDS...SPREADING EAST TOWARD THE COAST AND INTENSIFYING
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON.  MAV/MET GUIDANCE GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON...LITTLE HIGHER SOUTHEASTERN THIRD. ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND 30+ KNOT 850 WIND.  SPC INCLUDES EASTERN
CLARENDON...ORANGEBURG AND BAMBERG COUNTIES IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREAS...THIS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION FAR EAST...GENERAL THUNDER ELSEWHERE. PRECIP SHUTS OFF
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONT MOVING OFF SHORE AROUND 06Z.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MIDDLE 90S...LOWS OVERNIGHT
IN THE LOWER 70S...MODEL BLEND REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER. FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS WILL DIRECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS WE ENTER INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...ALONG WITH ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN AS WE ENTER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING 18Z-24Z AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
TAF SITES.

AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH FRONTAL LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD INTENSIFY EAST OF CAE/CUB...AND MAYBE JUST EAST OF
DNL/AGS. HAVE INDICATED VCTS FOR OGB 21Z-24Z GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF
TIMING AND COVERAGE. WESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 5
TO 10 KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A COMBINATION OF WIND AND HIGH CLOUDINESS PROVIDED WARM MIN TEMPS
THIS MORNING...82 AT CAE AND 80 AT AGS.

RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JUL 28TH AT COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES LAST SET IN 1936.

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 28TH IS
82...ALSO SET IN 1936.

LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED AT
MIDNIGHT EST..OR 100 AM EDT...TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SO...SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THE DAILY HIGH MIN TEMP RECORD FOR THE CALENDAR DAY OF JULY 28TH WILL
BE TIED OR BROKEN AT CAE. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT CAE BY 100 AM EDT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 281716
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
116 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TODAY. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL ENTER OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
17Z RADAR QUIET WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW IN UPSTATE SC.  HRRR/CAE
LOCAL WRF MODELS SHOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEGINNING BY MID AFTERNOON
IN THE MIDLANDS...SPREADING EAST TOWARD THE COAST AND INTENSIFYING
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON.  MAV/MET GUIDANCE GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON...LITTLE HIGHER SOUTHEASTERN THIRD. ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND 30+ KNOT 850 WIND.  SPC INCLUDES EASTERN
CLARENDON...ORANGEBURG AND BAMBERG COUNTIES IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREAS...THIS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION FAR EAST...GENERAL THUNDER ELSEWHERE. PRECIP SHUTS OFF
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONT MOVING OFF SHORE AROUND 06Z.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MIDDLE 90S...LOWS OVERNIGHT
IN THE LOWER 70S...MODEL BLEND REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER. FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS WILL DIRECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS WE ENTER INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...ALONG WITH ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN AS WE ENTER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING 18Z-24Z AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
TAF SITES.

AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH FRONTAL LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD INTENSIFY EAST OF CAE/CUB...AND MAYBE JUST EAST OF
DNL/AGS. HAVE INDICATED VCTS FOR OGB 21Z-24Z GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF
TIMING AND COVERAGE. WESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 5
TO 10 KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A COMBINATION OF WIND AND HIGH CLOUDINESS PROVIDED WARM MIN TEMPS
THIS MORNING...82 AT CAE AND 80 AT AGS.

RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JUL 28TH AT COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES LAST SET IN 1936.

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 28TH IS
82...ALSO SET IN 1936.

LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED AT
MIDNIGHT EST..OR 100 AM EDT...TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SO...SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THE DAILY HIGH MIN TEMP RECORD FOR THE CALENDAR DAY OF JULY 28TH WILL
BE TIED OR BROKEN AT CAE. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT CAE BY 100 AM EDT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 281523
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1123 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AND BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION BY LATE THIS MORNING...WITH A
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. A ROBUST LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE NORTH WILL STEADILY LIFT
THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ENTIRE EAST COAST. THESE STRONG
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES ARE QUITE ANOMALOUS FOR MID/LATE
SUMMER...AND THUS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INDEED HAVE THE
ENERGY TO EVENTUALLY PROGRESS INTO AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SOLID WEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN DRY MID LAYER AIR AND SUPPORT A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES INLAND AND LOW 90S NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO THE WARM WEST FLOW...A PINNED SEABREEZE...AND EVEN
SOME PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION EFFECTS. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S DURING PEAK HEATING...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AT 110
DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS LATER TODAY. DESPITE LINGERING DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN TENNESSEE
VALLEY...HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE UNAFFECTED AT THIS TIME. THUS THE
ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY IS ON TRACK.

THE NEXT MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE STEADILY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION
WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE BEFORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INITIATES. THESE SOUNDINGS ARE OFTEN
DESCRIBED AS HAVING A LOADED GUN SIGNATURE...WITH NOTABLE
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION...THAT ONCE BROKEN WILL
ALLOW ACCESS TO A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND CONVECTIVELY CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AFTER 4 OR 5 PM...WHEN STRONGER DYNAMICS CAN
EFFECTIVELY BREAK THE CAPPING INVERSION.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG FORCING AND DYNAMICS ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE
CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL JETS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA...YET CONSIDERING 40 TO 45 KT MID LEVEL WINDS SPREADING
ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO A POTENTIAL HAZARD...AS HAIL CAPE VALUES REACH OR EXCEED 1000
J/KG BY 5 PM EDT. THIS COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL LEAD TO A MULTICELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AND SPREADS IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL CONTINUE AS STORMS PROGRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND EVENTUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BECOME ENHANCED NEAR THE
COASTLINE TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE
PINNED SEABREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT ITS PEAK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. RAIN
CHANCES DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
A DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE BY LATE TONIGHT. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S FAR INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.

A BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH FOR MID SUMMER WILL SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ONE THAT IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THIS SENDS THE COLD FRONT OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IT STALLS OUT ROUGHLY FROM BERMUDA TO
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY...INITIALLY THERE IS A BREAK FROM OUR HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OF LATE WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 8-10K FT WITH PWATS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TO AROUND 1 INCH...OR EVEN MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY THERE IS NO RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...QUITE A BIT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 14-16C. THIS EQUATES TO TEMPS
SOME 6-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES INLAND FROM US-17.

WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THERE IS A SUBTLE RISE IN MOISTURE FROM OFF THE OCEAN. THIS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO POP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT
SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE CAP IN PLACE
THIS SUPPORTS POPS NO MORE THAN A SILENT 14 PERCENT. SIMILAR 850 MB
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...SO LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS.

THURSDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SW ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT A LITTLE BACK TOWARD THE SE STATES AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH. THERE IS A FURTHER INFLUX OF MARITIME
MOISTURE WITHIN AN EAST-SE SYNOPTIC FLOW...BOOSTING PWATS BACK UP TO
WHAT IS MORE TYPICAL. FORCING FROM THIS NEARBY SURFACE FEATURE AND
THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
REALIZED. AN INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WITH
SURFACE WINDS TO QUICKLY INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY THROUGH
THE DAY. WINDS WILL PEAK AT AROUND 20 OR 25 KT LATER TODAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE
DAY AND PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL
PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...SOME OF WHICH COULD IMPACT BOTH
KCHS AND KSAV. CONFIDENCE AND PROBABILITIES ARE THUS HIGH ENOUGH
TO SHOW VCTS FROM ABOUT 21Z TO 22Z THROUGH 03Z TO 04Z...WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH AT BOTH
SITES. DEPENDING UPON FUTURE TRENDS...CONDITIONS COULD BE WORSE
THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED...INCLUDING STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM ANY
DIRECT IMPACTS DUE TO THE SHRA/TSRA.

CONDITIONS FOR THE LATER PART OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD HAVE BEEN
AVERAGED FOR BREVITY...AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD MORE CLARITY AS
NEEDED. ESSENTIALLY VFR WEATHER WILL AGAIN PREVAIL AFTER 03-04Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN FACT...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUST TO NEAR 25 KT
AT TIMES...BUT PREFER NOT TO RAISE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT
BEYOND. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS
FROM THE LAND TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS TO EVENTUALLY VEER
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 OR 12 KT
AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH /ALSO KNOWN AS A
COASTAL TROUGH/ WILL HAVE DEVELOPED NEARBY EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE/LL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE
HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL HAVE
RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND
THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS/
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 281523
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1123 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AND BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION BY LATE THIS MORNING...WITH A
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. A ROBUST LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE NORTH WILL STEADILY LIFT
THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ENTIRE EAST COAST. THESE STRONG
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES ARE QUITE ANOMALOUS FOR MID/LATE
SUMMER...AND THUS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INDEED HAVE THE
ENERGY TO EVENTUALLY PROGRESS INTO AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SOLID WEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN DRY MID LAYER AIR AND SUPPORT A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES INLAND AND LOW 90S NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO THE WARM WEST FLOW...A PINNED SEABREEZE...AND EVEN
SOME PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION EFFECTS. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S DURING PEAK HEATING...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AT 110
DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS LATER TODAY. DESPITE LINGERING DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN TENNESSEE
VALLEY...HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE UNAFFECTED AT THIS TIME. THUS THE
ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY IS ON TRACK.

THE NEXT MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE STEADILY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION
WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE BEFORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INITIATES. THESE SOUNDINGS ARE OFTEN
DESCRIBED AS HAVING A LOADED GUN SIGNATURE...WITH NOTABLE
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION...THAT ONCE BROKEN WILL
ALLOW ACCESS TO A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND CONVECTIVELY CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AFTER 4 OR 5 PM...WHEN STRONGER DYNAMICS CAN
EFFECTIVELY BREAK THE CAPPING INVERSION.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG FORCING AND DYNAMICS ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE
CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL JETS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA...YET CONSIDERING 40 TO 45 KT MID LEVEL WINDS SPREADING
ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO A POTENTIAL HAZARD...AS HAIL CAPE VALUES REACH OR EXCEED 1000
J/KG BY 5 PM EDT. THIS COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL LEAD TO A MULTICELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AND SPREADS IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL CONTINUE AS STORMS PROGRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND EVENTUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BECOME ENHANCED NEAR THE
COASTLINE TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE
PINNED SEABREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT ITS PEAK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. RAIN
CHANCES DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
A DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE BY LATE TONIGHT. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S FAR INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.

A BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH FOR MID SUMMER WILL SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ONE THAT IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THIS SENDS THE COLD FRONT OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IT STALLS OUT ROUGHLY FROM BERMUDA TO
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY...INITIALLY THERE IS A BREAK FROM OUR HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OF LATE WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 8-10K FT WITH PWATS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TO AROUND 1 INCH...OR EVEN MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY THERE IS NO RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...QUITE A BIT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 14-16C. THIS EQUATES TO TEMPS
SOME 6-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES INLAND FROM US-17.

WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THERE IS A SUBTLE RISE IN MOISTURE FROM OFF THE OCEAN. THIS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO POP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT
SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE CAP IN PLACE
THIS SUPPORTS POPS NO MORE THAN A SILENT 14 PERCENT. SIMILAR 850 MB
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...SO LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS.

THURSDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SW ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT A LITTLE BACK TOWARD THE SE STATES AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH. THERE IS A FURTHER INFLUX OF MARITIME
MOISTURE WITHIN AN EAST-SE SYNOPTIC FLOW...BOOSTING PWATS BACK UP TO
WHAT IS MORE TYPICAL. FORCING FROM THIS NEARBY SURFACE FEATURE AND
THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
REALIZED. AN INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WITH
SURFACE WINDS TO QUICKLY INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY THROUGH
THE DAY. WINDS WILL PEAK AT AROUND 20 OR 25 KT LATER TODAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE
DAY AND PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL
PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...SOME OF WHICH COULD IMPACT BOTH
KCHS AND KSAV. CONFIDENCE AND PROBABILITIES ARE THUS HIGH ENOUGH
TO SHOW VCTS FROM ABOUT 21Z TO 22Z THROUGH 03Z TO 04Z...WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH AT BOTH
SITES. DEPENDING UPON FUTURE TRENDS...CONDITIONS COULD BE WORSE
THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED...INCLUDING STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM ANY
DIRECT IMPACTS DUE TO THE SHRA/TSRA.

CONDITIONS FOR THE LATER PART OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD HAVE BEEN
AVERAGED FOR BREVITY...AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD MORE CLARITY AS
NEEDED. ESSENTIALLY VFR WEATHER WILL AGAIN PREVAIL AFTER 03-04Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN FACT...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUST TO NEAR 25 KT
AT TIMES...BUT PREFER NOT TO RAISE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT
BEYOND. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS
FROM THE LAND TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS TO EVENTUALLY VEER
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 OR 12 KT
AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH /ALSO KNOWN AS A
COASTAL TROUGH/ WILL HAVE DEVELOPED NEARBY EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE/LL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE
HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL HAVE
RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND
THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS/
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KFFC 281501
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1100 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...

SURFACE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF ATLANTA TO ATHENS. HAVE TWEAKED THE POPS
ONLY SLIGHT. STILL HAVE BEST CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON.

41


.PREVIOUS...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS NORTH GA THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS NORTH GA WEAKENING EARLY THIS MORNING TO MAINLY JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE ATLANTA METRO
AREA BY 6 AM TO 8 AM THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND IS
NOTED AND EXPECTED... MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 20-30KT
WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE NOTED ACROSS NORTH GA THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD
OF THE CONVECTION. THIS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST AS THE CONVECTION PUSHES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER... SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE GREATEST STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS
CENTRAL GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO A MUCH MORE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES TOWARD A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BETWEEN 4-6 PM THIS
AFTERNOON... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONGER STORMS FIRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG...
COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT MID LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT RISK AREA
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD PUSH
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 8-10 PM THIS EVENING... WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

A MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS... AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY STRUGGLE TO
GET INTO THE MID 80S FOR NORTH GA... UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S LOOK
REASONABLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL GA ON TUESDAY.

39


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES IN OVER
THE REGION AND SETTLES IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH
PULLS IN SOME DRIER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUE/WED. BY THU MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYS 6 AND 7.

01


&&


.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 14-16Z
THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY SPOTTY SHOWERS
THAT MIGHT DEVELOP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT... SW WINDS SHIFT NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12-14KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE A CLEARING OF
CLOUDS BY 17-18Z. NW WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 10KTS BY 01-03Z THIS
EVENING... BUT REMAIN AROUND 7-9KTS OVERNIGHT. SKC AND NW WINDS
AROUND 7-9KTS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING CONVECTION... HIGH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  64  87  64 /  50  10   5   5
ATLANTA         89  66  85  65 /  50  10   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     82  60  79  55 /  30  10  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    88  62  84  61 /  50   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        95  67  89  66 /  50  20   5   5
GAINESVILLE     89  65  84  64 /  50  10   5   5
MACON           97  65  90  63 /  60  20   5   5
ROME            88  62  85  61 /  40   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  90  63  85  60 /  50  10   5   5
VIDALIA         98  71  91  67 /  70  60   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...41












000
FXUS62 KFFC 281501
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1100 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...

SURFACE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF ATLANTA TO ATHENS. HAVE TWEAKED THE POPS
ONLY SLIGHT. STILL HAVE BEST CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON.

41


.PREVIOUS...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS NORTH GA THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS NORTH GA WEAKENING EARLY THIS MORNING TO MAINLY JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE ATLANTA METRO
AREA BY 6 AM TO 8 AM THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND IS
NOTED AND EXPECTED... MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 20-30KT
WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE NOTED ACROSS NORTH GA THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD
OF THE CONVECTION. THIS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST AS THE CONVECTION PUSHES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER... SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE GREATEST STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS
CENTRAL GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO A MUCH MORE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES TOWARD A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BETWEEN 4-6 PM THIS
AFTERNOON... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONGER STORMS FIRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG...
COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT MID LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT RISK AREA
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD PUSH
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 8-10 PM THIS EVENING... WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

A MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS... AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY STRUGGLE TO
GET INTO THE MID 80S FOR NORTH GA... UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S LOOK
REASONABLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL GA ON TUESDAY.

39


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES IN OVER
THE REGION AND SETTLES IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH
PULLS IN SOME DRIER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUE/WED. BY THU MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYS 6 AND 7.

01


&&


.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 14-16Z
THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY SPOTTY SHOWERS
THAT MIGHT DEVELOP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT... SW WINDS SHIFT NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12-14KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE A CLEARING OF
CLOUDS BY 17-18Z. NW WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 10KTS BY 01-03Z THIS
EVENING... BUT REMAIN AROUND 7-9KTS OVERNIGHT. SKC AND NW WINDS
AROUND 7-9KTS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING CONVECTION... HIGH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  64  87  64 /  50  10   5   5
ATLANTA         89  66  85  65 /  50  10   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     82  60  79  55 /  30  10  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    88  62  84  61 /  50   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        95  67  89  66 /  50  20   5   5
GAINESVILLE     89  65  84  64 /  50  10   5   5
MACON           97  65  90  63 /  60  20   5   5
ROME            88  62  85  61 /  40   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  90  63  85  60 /  50  10   5   5
VIDALIA         98  71  91  67 /  70  60   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...41











000
FXUS62 KCAE 281356
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
956 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST TOWARD THE COAST INTO THE
EVENING. GOING FORECAST ON TRACK WITH TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND PRECIP CHANCES. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO RE DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BEGINNING AROUND MID DAY IN THE
MIDLANDS...LIKELY INTENSIFYING IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SPC INCLUDES EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. PRECIP
SHUTS OFF EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONT MOVING OFF SHORE
AROUND 06Z.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE RAINFALL. FOR NOW WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND WHICH GIVES HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA AND OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY IN THE EVENING
AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
PRIOR NIGHTS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SET UP OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL
LEAD TO A MORE REFRESHING PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 65 TO 70
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WE ENTER INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...ALONG WITH ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN AS WE ENTER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
18Z-24Z AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TAF SITES.

CONVECTION CROSSING THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. COULD SEE PATCHES OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH POSSIBLY LIGHT SHOWERS AT AGS/DNL.
MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THIS CONVECTION DIMINISHING...SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED PRECIP THIS MORNING IN TAFS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA IN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD INTENSIFY EAST OF
CAE/CUB...AND MAYBE JUST EAST OF DNL/AGS. HAVE INDICATED VCTS FOR
OGB 21Z-24Z GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND COVERAGE.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE COLD FRONT BE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES BY 29/00Z WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 281356
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
956 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST TOWARD THE COAST INTO THE
EVENING. GOING FORECAST ON TRACK WITH TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND PRECIP CHANCES. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO RE DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BEGINNING AROUND MID DAY IN THE
MIDLANDS...LIKELY INTENSIFYING IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SPC INCLUDES EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. PRECIP
SHUTS OFF EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONT MOVING OFF SHORE
AROUND 06Z.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE RAINFALL. FOR NOW WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND WHICH GIVES HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA AND OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY IN THE EVENING
AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
PRIOR NIGHTS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SET UP OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL
LEAD TO A MORE REFRESHING PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 65 TO 70
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WE ENTER INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...ALONG WITH ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN AS WE ENTER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
18Z-24Z AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TAF SITES.

CONVECTION CROSSING THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. COULD SEE PATCHES OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH POSSIBLY LIGHT SHOWERS AT AGS/DNL.
MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THIS CONVECTION DIMINISHING...SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED PRECIP THIS MORNING IN TAFS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA IN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD INTENSIFY EAST OF
CAE/CUB...AND MAYBE JUST EAST OF DNL/AGS. HAVE INDICATED VCTS FOR
OGB 21Z-24Z GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND COVERAGE.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE COLD FRONT BE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES BY 29/00Z WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 281127
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
726 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS NORTH GA THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS NORTH GA WEAKENING EARLY THIS MORNING TO MAINLY JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE ATLANTA METRO
AREA BY 6 AM TO 8 AM THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND IS
NOTED AND EXPECTED... MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 20-30KT
WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE NOTED ACROSS NORTH GA THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD
OF THE CONVECTION. THIS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST AS THE CONVECTION PUSHES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER... SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE GREATEST STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS
CENTRAL GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO A MUCH MORE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES TOWARD A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BETWEEN 4-6 PM THIS
AFTERNOON... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONGER STORMS FIRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG...
COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT MID LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT RISK AREA
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD PUSH
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 8-10 PM THIS EVENING... WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

A MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS... AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY STRUGGLE TO
GET INTO THE MID 80S FOR NORTH GA... UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S LOOK
REASONABLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL GA ON TUESDAY.

39


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES IN OVER
THE REGION AND SETTLES IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH
PULLS IN SOME DRIER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUE/WED. BY THU MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYS 6 AND 7.

01


&&


.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 14-16Z
THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY SPOTTY SHOWERS
THAT MIGHT DEVELOP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT... SW WINDS SHIFT NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12-14KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE A CLEARING OF
CLOUDS BY 17-18Z. NW WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 10KTS BY 01-03Z THIS
EVENING... BUT REMAIN AROUND 7-9KTS OVERNIGHT. SKC AND NW WINDS
AROUND 7-9KTS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING CONVECTION... HIGH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  64  87  64 /  50  10   5   5
ATLANTA         89  66  85  65 /  50  10   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     82  60  79  55 /  30  10  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    88  62  84  61 /  50   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        95  67  89  66 /  50  20   5   5
GAINESVILLE     89  65  84  64 /  50  10   5   5
MACON           97  65  90  63 /  60  20   5   5
ROME            88  62  85  61 /  40   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  90  63  85  60 /  50  10   5   5
VIDALIA         98  71  91  67 /  70  60   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39








000
FXUS62 KFFC 281127
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
726 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS NORTH GA THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS NORTH GA WEAKENING EARLY THIS MORNING TO MAINLY JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE ATLANTA METRO
AREA BY 6 AM TO 8 AM THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND IS
NOTED AND EXPECTED... MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 20-30KT
WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE NOTED ACROSS NORTH GA THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD
OF THE CONVECTION. THIS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST AS THE CONVECTION PUSHES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER... SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE GREATEST STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS
CENTRAL GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO A MUCH MORE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES TOWARD A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BETWEEN 4-6 PM THIS
AFTERNOON... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONGER STORMS FIRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG...
COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT MID LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT RISK AREA
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD PUSH
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 8-10 PM THIS EVENING... WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

A MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS... AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY STRUGGLE TO
GET INTO THE MID 80S FOR NORTH GA... UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S LOOK
REASONABLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL GA ON TUESDAY.

39


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES IN OVER
THE REGION AND SETTLES IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH
PULLS IN SOME DRIER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUE/WED. BY THU MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYS 6 AND 7.

01


&&


.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 14-16Z
THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY SPOTTY SHOWERS
THAT MIGHT DEVELOP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT... SW WINDS SHIFT NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12-14KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE A CLEARING OF
CLOUDS BY 17-18Z. NW WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 10KTS BY 01-03Z THIS
EVENING... BUT REMAIN AROUND 7-9KTS OVERNIGHT. SKC AND NW WINDS
AROUND 7-9KTS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING CONVECTION... HIGH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  64  87  64 /  50  10   5   5
ATLANTA         89  66  85  65 /  50  10   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     82  60  79  55 /  30  10  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    88  62  84  61 /  50   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        95  67  89  66 /  50  20   5   5
GAINESVILLE     89  65  84  64 /  50  10   5   5
MACON           97  65  90  63 /  60  20   5   5
ROME            88  62  85  61 /  40   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  90  63  85  60 /  50  10   5   5
VIDALIA         98  71  91  67 /  70  60   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39








000
FXUS62 KFFC 281127
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
726 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS NORTH GA THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS NORTH GA WEAKENING EARLY THIS MORNING TO MAINLY JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE ATLANTA METRO
AREA BY 6 AM TO 8 AM THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND IS
NOTED AND EXPECTED... MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 20-30KT
WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE NOTED ACROSS NORTH GA THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD
OF THE CONVECTION. THIS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST AS THE CONVECTION PUSHES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER... SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE GREATEST STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS
CENTRAL GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO A MUCH MORE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES TOWARD A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BETWEEN 4-6 PM THIS
AFTERNOON... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONGER STORMS FIRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG...
COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT MID LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT RISK AREA
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD PUSH
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 8-10 PM THIS EVENING... WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

A MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS... AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY STRUGGLE TO
GET INTO THE MID 80S FOR NORTH GA... UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S LOOK
REASONABLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL GA ON TUESDAY.

39


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES IN OVER
THE REGION AND SETTLES IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH
PULLS IN SOME DRIER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUE/WED. BY THU MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYS 6 AND 7.

01


&&


.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 14-16Z
THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY SPOTTY SHOWERS
THAT MIGHT DEVELOP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT... SW WINDS SHIFT NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12-14KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE A CLEARING OF
CLOUDS BY 17-18Z. NW WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 10KTS BY 01-03Z THIS
EVENING... BUT REMAIN AROUND 7-9KTS OVERNIGHT. SKC AND NW WINDS
AROUND 7-9KTS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING CONVECTION... HIGH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  64  87  64 /  50  10   5   5
ATLANTA         89  66  85  65 /  50  10   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     82  60  79  55 /  30  10  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    88  62  84  61 /  50   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        95  67  89  66 /  50  20   5   5
GAINESVILLE     89  65  84  64 /  50  10   5   5
MACON           97  65  90  63 /  60  20   5   5
ROME            88  62  85  61 /  40   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  90  63  85  60 /  50  10   5   5
VIDALIA         98  71  91  67 /  70  60   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39








000
FXUS62 KFFC 281127
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
726 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS NORTH GA THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS NORTH GA WEAKENING EARLY THIS MORNING TO MAINLY JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE ATLANTA METRO
AREA BY 6 AM TO 8 AM THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND IS
NOTED AND EXPECTED... MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 20-30KT
WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE NOTED ACROSS NORTH GA THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD
OF THE CONVECTION. THIS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST AS THE CONVECTION PUSHES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER... SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE GREATEST STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS
CENTRAL GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO A MUCH MORE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES TOWARD A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BETWEEN 4-6 PM THIS
AFTERNOON... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONGER STORMS FIRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG...
COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT MID LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT RISK AREA
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD PUSH
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 8-10 PM THIS EVENING... WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

A MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS... AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY STRUGGLE TO
GET INTO THE MID 80S FOR NORTH GA... UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S LOOK
REASONABLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL GA ON TUESDAY.

39


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES IN OVER
THE REGION AND SETTLES IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH
PULLS IN SOME DRIER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUE/WED. BY THU MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYS 6 AND 7.

01


&&


.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 14-16Z
THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY SPOTTY SHOWERS
THAT MIGHT DEVELOP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT... SW WINDS SHIFT NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12-14KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE A CLEARING OF
CLOUDS BY 17-18Z. NW WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 10KTS BY 01-03Z THIS
EVENING... BUT REMAIN AROUND 7-9KTS OVERNIGHT. SKC AND NW WINDS
AROUND 7-9KTS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING CONVECTION... HIGH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  64  87  64 /  50  10   5   5
ATLANTA         89  66  85  65 /  50  10   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     82  60  79  55 /  30  10  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    88  62  84  61 /  50   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        95  67  89  66 /  50  20   5   5
GAINESVILLE     89  65  84  64 /  50  10   5   5
MACON           97  65  90  63 /  60  20   5   5
ROME            88  62  85  61 /  40   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  90  63  85  60 /  50  10   5   5
VIDALIA         98  71  91  67 /  70  60   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39








000
FXUS62 KCHS 281125
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
725 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES AS THE OVERALL LONGWAVE DIGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD. A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AS ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
SLIDES INTO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND BEGINS TO
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
FOCUSES ON TWO MAIN IMPACTS...WARM TEMPERATURES AND A RESULTING
HEAT ADVISORY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
FIRST REGARDING THE HEAT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES TO FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100
IN SOME AREAS. WE WILL GET A WARM START AS MANY AREAS WILL HAVE
FAILED TO FALL BELOW 80 THIS MORNING. THESE FORECAST HIGHS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES AT 110 FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT
ADVISORY AND ITS VALID TIME IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE ONLY THING TO
WATCH IS THE CHANCE THAT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE OVERNIGHT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY LIMIT INSOLATION JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS IT WILL STILL
BE VERY HOT AND HUMID.

FINALLY...THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON
TRACK. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT.
THE SUITE OF MODELS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND ALSO
SEEMS TO AGREE ON A CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIME AROUND 21Z. WHEN
CONVECTION DOES BEGIN TO DEVELOP IT WILL LIKELY START RIGHT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OR PERHAPS ALONG THE BORDER WITH THE MIDLANDS. WHEN
THESE STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP...THE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE JULY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER. CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE
WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -9. HAIL CAPES AND DCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 1000...LEADING TO THE THREAT FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. FURTHERMORE...A 40-45 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX COINCIDENT
WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL RESULT IN 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 25-30 KNOTS. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
LEAD TO THE FAVORED CONVECTIVE MODE BEING MULTICELLS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ONCE STORM STORMS DEVELOP
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THESE STORMS MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOLIDLY WITHIN THE
DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC WITH INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BOTH A
WIND AND HAIL THREAT. A FEW ROTATING STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS GET CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INTERACT WITH
THE PINNED SEA BREEZE...BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR THE SEVERE RISK REVOLVES
AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LINGERING DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS. THIS COULD
POSSIBLY REDUCE THE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND LOWER THE COVERAGE
AND STRENGTH OF STORMS. THE THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THE LINGERING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING PRIOR TO PEAK
HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT ITS PEAK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IN THE EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. POPS
DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A DRY
FORECAST IS IN PLACE BY LATE TONIGHT. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S FAR INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.

A BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH FOR MID SUMMER WILL SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ONE THAT IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THIS SENDS THE COLD FRONT OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IT STALLS OUT ROUGHLY FROM BERMUDA TO
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY...INITIALLY THERE IS A BREAK FROM OUR HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OF LATE WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 8-10K FT WITH PWATS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TO AROUND 1 INCH...OR EVEN MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY THERE IS NO RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...QUITE A BIT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 14-16C. THIS EQUATES TO TEMPS
SOME 6-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES INLAND FROM US-17.

WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THERE IS A SUBTLE RISE IN MOISTURE FROM OFF THE OCEAN. THIS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO POP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT
SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE CAP IN PLACE
THIS SUPPORTS POPS NO MORE THAN A SILENT 14 PERCENT. SIMILAR 850 MB
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...SO LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS.

THURSDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SW ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT A LITTLE BACK TOWARD THE SE STATES AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH. THERE IS A FURTHER INFLUX OF MARITIME
MOISTURE WITHIN AN EAST-SE SYNOPTIC FLOW...BOOSTING PWATS BACK UP TO
WHAT IS MORE TYPICAL. FORCING FROM THIS NEARBY SURFACE FEATURE AND
THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
REALIZED. AN INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE START THE 12Z TAF CYCLE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS TO QUICKLY CLIMB AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
BE TRIGGERED BY STRONG HEATING AND DEEP MIXING. WINDS WILL PEAK
DURING THE AFTERNOON AT AROUND 20 OR 25 KT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE
DAY AND PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL
PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...SOME OF WHICH LOOK TO IMPACT
BOTH KCHS AND KSAV. CONFIDENCE AND PROBABILITIES ARE THUS HIGH
ENOUGH TO SHOW VCTS FROM ABOUT 21-22Z THROUGH 03-04Z...WITH EVEN A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES ON THROUGH AT
BOTH SITES. DEPENDING UPON FUTURE TRENDS THERE EVEN MIGHT BE WORSE
CONDITIONS THAN NOW IN THE FORECAST...INCLUDING STRONGER WIND
GUSTS FROM ANY DIRECT IMPACTS DUE TO THE SHRA/TSRA.

CONDITIONS FOR THE LATER PART OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD ARE AN
AVERAGE FOR THE SAKE OF BREVITY...AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD MORE
CLARITY AS NEEDED. BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT VFR WEATHER WILL
AGAIN PREVAIL AFTER 03-04Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN FACT...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AT
TIMES...BUT WILL NOT HOIST ANY ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT BEYOND. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS FROM THE LAND
TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS TO EVENTUALLY VEER
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 OR 12 KT
AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH /ALSO KNOWN AS A
COASTAL TROUGH/ WILL HAVE DEVELOPED NEARBY EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE/LL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE
HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL HAVE
RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND
THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 281125
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
725 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES AS THE OVERALL LONGWAVE DIGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD. A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AS ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
SLIDES INTO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND BEGINS TO
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
FOCUSES ON TWO MAIN IMPACTS...WARM TEMPERATURES AND A RESULTING
HEAT ADVISORY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
FIRST REGARDING THE HEAT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES TO FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100
IN SOME AREAS. WE WILL GET A WARM START AS MANY AREAS WILL HAVE
FAILED TO FALL BELOW 80 THIS MORNING. THESE FORECAST HIGHS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES AT 110 FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT
ADVISORY AND ITS VALID TIME IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE ONLY THING TO
WATCH IS THE CHANCE THAT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE OVERNIGHT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY LIMIT INSOLATION JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS IT WILL STILL
BE VERY HOT AND HUMID.

FINALLY...THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON
TRACK. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT.
THE SUITE OF MODELS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND ALSO
SEEMS TO AGREE ON A CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIME AROUND 21Z. WHEN
CONVECTION DOES BEGIN TO DEVELOP IT WILL LIKELY START RIGHT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OR PERHAPS ALONG THE BORDER WITH THE MIDLANDS. WHEN
THESE STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP...THE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE JULY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER. CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE
WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -9. HAIL CAPES AND DCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 1000...LEADING TO THE THREAT FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. FURTHERMORE...A 40-45 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX COINCIDENT
WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL RESULT IN 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 25-30 KNOTS. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
LEAD TO THE FAVORED CONVECTIVE MODE BEING MULTICELLS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ONCE STORM STORMS DEVELOP
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THESE STORMS MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOLIDLY WITHIN THE
DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC WITH INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BOTH A
WIND AND HAIL THREAT. A FEW ROTATING STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS GET CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INTERACT WITH
THE PINNED SEA BREEZE...BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR THE SEVERE RISK REVOLVES
AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LINGERING DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS. THIS COULD
POSSIBLY REDUCE THE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND LOWER THE COVERAGE
AND STRENGTH OF STORMS. THE THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THE LINGERING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING PRIOR TO PEAK
HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT ITS PEAK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IN THE EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. POPS
DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A DRY
FORECAST IS IN PLACE BY LATE TONIGHT. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S FAR INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.

A BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH FOR MID SUMMER WILL SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ONE THAT IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THIS SENDS THE COLD FRONT OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IT STALLS OUT ROUGHLY FROM BERMUDA TO
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY...INITIALLY THERE IS A BREAK FROM OUR HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OF LATE WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 8-10K FT WITH PWATS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TO AROUND 1 INCH...OR EVEN MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY THERE IS NO RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...QUITE A BIT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 14-16C. THIS EQUATES TO TEMPS
SOME 6-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES INLAND FROM US-17.

WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THERE IS A SUBTLE RISE IN MOISTURE FROM OFF THE OCEAN. THIS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO POP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT
SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE CAP IN PLACE
THIS SUPPORTS POPS NO MORE THAN A SILENT 14 PERCENT. SIMILAR 850 MB
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...SO LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS.

THURSDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SW ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT A LITTLE BACK TOWARD THE SE STATES AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH. THERE IS A FURTHER INFLUX OF MARITIME
MOISTURE WITHIN AN EAST-SE SYNOPTIC FLOW...BOOSTING PWATS BACK UP TO
WHAT IS MORE TYPICAL. FORCING FROM THIS NEARBY SURFACE FEATURE AND
THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
REALIZED. AN INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE START THE 12Z TAF CYCLE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS TO QUICKLY CLIMB AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
BE TRIGGERED BY STRONG HEATING AND DEEP MIXING. WINDS WILL PEAK
DURING THE AFTERNOON AT AROUND 20 OR 25 KT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE
DAY AND PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL
PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...SOME OF WHICH LOOK TO IMPACT
BOTH KCHS AND KSAV. CONFIDENCE AND PROBABILITIES ARE THUS HIGH
ENOUGH TO SHOW VCTS FROM ABOUT 21-22Z THROUGH 03-04Z...WITH EVEN A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES ON THROUGH AT
BOTH SITES. DEPENDING UPON FUTURE TRENDS THERE EVEN MIGHT BE WORSE
CONDITIONS THAN NOW IN THE FORECAST...INCLUDING STRONGER WIND
GUSTS FROM ANY DIRECT IMPACTS DUE TO THE SHRA/TSRA.

CONDITIONS FOR THE LATER PART OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD ARE AN
AVERAGE FOR THE SAKE OF BREVITY...AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD MORE
CLARITY AS NEEDED. BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT VFR WEATHER WILL
AGAIN PREVAIL AFTER 03-04Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN FACT...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AT
TIMES...BUT WILL NOT HOIST ANY ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT BEYOND. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS FROM THE LAND
TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS TO EVENTUALLY VEER
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 OR 12 KT
AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH /ALSO KNOWN AS A
COASTAL TROUGH/ WILL HAVE DEVELOPED NEARBY EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE/LL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE
HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL HAVE
RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND
THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 281125
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
725 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES AS THE OVERALL LONGWAVE DIGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD. A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AS ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
SLIDES INTO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND BEGINS TO
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
FOCUSES ON TWO MAIN IMPACTS...WARM TEMPERATURES AND A RESULTING
HEAT ADVISORY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
FIRST REGARDING THE HEAT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES TO FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100
IN SOME AREAS. WE WILL GET A WARM START AS MANY AREAS WILL HAVE
FAILED TO FALL BELOW 80 THIS MORNING. THESE FORECAST HIGHS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES AT 110 FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT
ADVISORY AND ITS VALID TIME IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE ONLY THING TO
WATCH IS THE CHANCE THAT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE OVERNIGHT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY LIMIT INSOLATION JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS IT WILL STILL
BE VERY HOT AND HUMID.

FINALLY...THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON
TRACK. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT.
THE SUITE OF MODELS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND ALSO
SEEMS TO AGREE ON A CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIME AROUND 21Z. WHEN
CONVECTION DOES BEGIN TO DEVELOP IT WILL LIKELY START RIGHT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OR PERHAPS ALONG THE BORDER WITH THE MIDLANDS. WHEN
THESE STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP...THE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE JULY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER. CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE
WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -9. HAIL CAPES AND DCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 1000...LEADING TO THE THREAT FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. FURTHERMORE...A 40-45 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX COINCIDENT
WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL RESULT IN 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 25-30 KNOTS. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
LEAD TO THE FAVORED CONVECTIVE MODE BEING MULTICELLS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ONCE STORM STORMS DEVELOP
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THESE STORMS MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOLIDLY WITHIN THE
DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC WITH INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BOTH A
WIND AND HAIL THREAT. A FEW ROTATING STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS GET CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INTERACT WITH
THE PINNED SEA BREEZE...BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR THE SEVERE RISK REVOLVES
AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LINGERING DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS. THIS COULD
POSSIBLY REDUCE THE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND LOWER THE COVERAGE
AND STRENGTH OF STORMS. THE THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THE LINGERING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING PRIOR TO PEAK
HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT ITS PEAK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IN THE EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. POPS
DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A DRY
FORECAST IS IN PLACE BY LATE TONIGHT. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S FAR INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.

A BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH FOR MID SUMMER WILL SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ONE THAT IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THIS SENDS THE COLD FRONT OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IT STALLS OUT ROUGHLY FROM BERMUDA TO
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY...INITIALLY THERE IS A BREAK FROM OUR HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OF LATE WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 8-10K FT WITH PWATS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TO AROUND 1 INCH...OR EVEN MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY THERE IS NO RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...QUITE A BIT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 14-16C. THIS EQUATES TO TEMPS
SOME 6-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES INLAND FROM US-17.

WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THERE IS A SUBTLE RISE IN MOISTURE FROM OFF THE OCEAN. THIS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO POP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT
SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE CAP IN PLACE
THIS SUPPORTS POPS NO MORE THAN A SILENT 14 PERCENT. SIMILAR 850 MB
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...SO LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS.

THURSDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SW ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT A LITTLE BACK TOWARD THE SE STATES AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH. THERE IS A FURTHER INFLUX OF MARITIME
MOISTURE WITHIN AN EAST-SE SYNOPTIC FLOW...BOOSTING PWATS BACK UP TO
WHAT IS MORE TYPICAL. FORCING FROM THIS NEARBY SURFACE FEATURE AND
THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
REALIZED. AN INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE START THE 12Z TAF CYCLE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS TO QUICKLY CLIMB AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
BE TRIGGERED BY STRONG HEATING AND DEEP MIXING. WINDS WILL PEAK
DURING THE AFTERNOON AT AROUND 20 OR 25 KT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE
DAY AND PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL
PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...SOME OF WHICH LOOK TO IMPACT
BOTH KCHS AND KSAV. CONFIDENCE AND PROBABILITIES ARE THUS HIGH
ENOUGH TO SHOW VCTS FROM ABOUT 21-22Z THROUGH 03-04Z...WITH EVEN A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES ON THROUGH AT
BOTH SITES. DEPENDING UPON FUTURE TRENDS THERE EVEN MIGHT BE WORSE
CONDITIONS THAN NOW IN THE FORECAST...INCLUDING STRONGER WIND
GUSTS FROM ANY DIRECT IMPACTS DUE TO THE SHRA/TSRA.

CONDITIONS FOR THE LATER PART OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD ARE AN
AVERAGE FOR THE SAKE OF BREVITY...AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD MORE
CLARITY AS NEEDED. BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT VFR WEATHER WILL
AGAIN PREVAIL AFTER 03-04Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN FACT...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AT
TIMES...BUT WILL NOT HOIST ANY ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT BEYOND. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS FROM THE LAND
TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS TO EVENTUALLY VEER
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 OR 12 KT
AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH /ALSO KNOWN AS A
COASTAL TROUGH/ WILL HAVE DEVELOPED NEARBY EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE/LL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE
HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL HAVE
RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND
THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 281125
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
725 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES AS THE OVERALL LONGWAVE DIGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD. A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AS ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
SLIDES INTO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND BEGINS TO
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
FOCUSES ON TWO MAIN IMPACTS...WARM TEMPERATURES AND A RESULTING
HEAT ADVISORY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
FIRST REGARDING THE HEAT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES TO FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100
IN SOME AREAS. WE WILL GET A WARM START AS MANY AREAS WILL HAVE
FAILED TO FALL BELOW 80 THIS MORNING. THESE FORECAST HIGHS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES AT 110 FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT
ADVISORY AND ITS VALID TIME IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE ONLY THING TO
WATCH IS THE CHANCE THAT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE OVERNIGHT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY LIMIT INSOLATION JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS IT WILL STILL
BE VERY HOT AND HUMID.

FINALLY...THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON
TRACK. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT.
THE SUITE OF MODELS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND ALSO
SEEMS TO AGREE ON A CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIME AROUND 21Z. WHEN
CONVECTION DOES BEGIN TO DEVELOP IT WILL LIKELY START RIGHT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OR PERHAPS ALONG THE BORDER WITH THE MIDLANDS. WHEN
THESE STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP...THE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE JULY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER. CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE
WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -9. HAIL CAPES AND DCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 1000...LEADING TO THE THREAT FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. FURTHERMORE...A 40-45 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX COINCIDENT
WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL RESULT IN 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 25-30 KNOTS. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
LEAD TO THE FAVORED CONVECTIVE MODE BEING MULTICELLS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ONCE STORM STORMS DEVELOP
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THESE STORMS MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOLIDLY WITHIN THE
DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC WITH INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BOTH A
WIND AND HAIL THREAT. A FEW ROTATING STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS GET CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INTERACT WITH
THE PINNED SEA BREEZE...BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR THE SEVERE RISK REVOLVES
AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LINGERING DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS. THIS COULD
POSSIBLY REDUCE THE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND LOWER THE COVERAGE
AND STRENGTH OF STORMS. THE THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THE LINGERING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING PRIOR TO PEAK
HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT ITS PEAK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IN THE EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. POPS
DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A DRY
FORECAST IS IN PLACE BY LATE TONIGHT. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S FAR INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.

A BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH FOR MID SUMMER WILL SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ONE THAT IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THIS SENDS THE COLD FRONT OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IT STALLS OUT ROUGHLY FROM BERMUDA TO
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY...INITIALLY THERE IS A BREAK FROM OUR HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OF LATE WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 8-10K FT WITH PWATS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TO AROUND 1 INCH...OR EVEN MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY THERE IS NO RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...QUITE A BIT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 14-16C. THIS EQUATES TO TEMPS
SOME 6-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES INLAND FROM US-17.

WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THERE IS A SUBTLE RISE IN MOISTURE FROM OFF THE OCEAN. THIS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO POP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT
SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE CAP IN PLACE
THIS SUPPORTS POPS NO MORE THAN A SILENT 14 PERCENT. SIMILAR 850 MB
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...SO LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS.

THURSDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SW ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT A LITTLE BACK TOWARD THE SE STATES AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH. THERE IS A FURTHER INFLUX OF MARITIME
MOISTURE WITHIN AN EAST-SE SYNOPTIC FLOW...BOOSTING PWATS BACK UP TO
WHAT IS MORE TYPICAL. FORCING FROM THIS NEARBY SURFACE FEATURE AND
THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
REALIZED. AN INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE START THE 12Z TAF CYCLE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS TO QUICKLY CLIMB AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
BE TRIGGERED BY STRONG HEATING AND DEEP MIXING. WINDS WILL PEAK
DURING THE AFTERNOON AT AROUND 20 OR 25 KT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE
DAY AND PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL
PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...SOME OF WHICH LOOK TO IMPACT
BOTH KCHS AND KSAV. CONFIDENCE AND PROBABILITIES ARE THUS HIGH
ENOUGH TO SHOW VCTS FROM ABOUT 21-22Z THROUGH 03-04Z...WITH EVEN A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES ON THROUGH AT
BOTH SITES. DEPENDING UPON FUTURE TRENDS THERE EVEN MIGHT BE WORSE
CONDITIONS THAN NOW IN THE FORECAST...INCLUDING STRONGER WIND
GUSTS FROM ANY DIRECT IMPACTS DUE TO THE SHRA/TSRA.

CONDITIONS FOR THE LATER PART OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD ARE AN
AVERAGE FOR THE SAKE OF BREVITY...AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD MORE
CLARITY AS NEEDED. BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT VFR WEATHER WILL
AGAIN PREVAIL AFTER 03-04Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN FACT...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AT
TIMES...BUT WILL NOT HOIST ANY ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT BEYOND. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS FROM THE LAND
TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS TO EVENTUALLY VEER
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 OR 12 KT
AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH /ALSO KNOWN AS A
COASTAL TROUGH/ WILL HAVE DEVELOPED NEARBY EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE/LL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE
HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL HAVE
RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND
THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 281048
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
648 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES AS THE OVERALL LONGWAVE DIGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD. A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AS ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
SLIDES INTO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND BEGINS TO
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
FOCUSES ON TWO MAIN IMPACTS...WARM TEMPERATURES AND A RESULTING
HEAT ADVISORY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
FIRST REGARDING THE HEAT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES TO FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100
IN SOME AREAS. WE WILL GET A WARM START AS MANY AREAS WILL HAVE
FAILED TO FALL BELOW 80 THIS MORNING. THESE FORECAST HIGHS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES AT 110 FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT
ADVISORY AND ITS VALID TIME IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE ONLY THING TO
WATCH IS THE CHANCE THAT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE OVERNIGHT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY LIMIT INSOLATION JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS IT WILL STILL
BE VERY HOT AND HUMID.

FINALLY...THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON
TRACK. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT.
THE SUITE OF MODELS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND ALSO
SEEMS TO AGREE ON A CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIME AROUND 21Z. WHEN
CONVECTION DOES BEGIN TO DEVELOP IT WILL LIKELY START RIGHT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OR PERHAPS ALONG THE BORDER WITH THE MIDLANDS. WHEN
THESE STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP...THE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE JULY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER. CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE
WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -9. HAIL CAPES AND DCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 1000...LEADING TO THE THREAT FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. FURTHERMORE...A 40-45 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX COINCIDENT
WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL RESULT IN 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 25-30 KNOTS. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
LEAD TO THE FAVORED CONVECTIVE MODE BEING MULTICELLS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ONCE STORM STORMS DEVELOP
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THESE STORMS MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOLIDLY WITHIN THE
DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC WITH INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BOTH A
WIND AND HAIL THREAT. A FEW ROTATING STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS GET CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INTERACT WITH
THE PINNED SEA BREEZE...BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR THE SEVERE RISK REVOLVES
AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LINGERING DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS. THIS COULD
POSSIBLY REDUCE THE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND LOWER THE COVERAGE
AND STRENGTH OF STORMS. THE THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THE LINGERING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING PRIOR TO PEAK
HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT ITS PEAK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IN THE EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. POPS
DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A DRY
FORECAST IS IN PLACE BY LATE TONIGHT. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S FAR INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.

A BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH FOR MID SUMMER WILL SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ONE THAT IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THIS SENDS THE COLD FRONT OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IT STALLS OUT ROUGHLY FROM BERMUDA TO
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY...INITIALLY THERE IS A BREAK FROM OUR HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OF LATE WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 8-10K FT WITH PWATS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TO AROUND 1 INCH...OR EVEN MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY THERE IS NO RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...QUITE A BIT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 14-16C. THIS EQUATES TO TEMPS
SOME 6-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES INLAND FROM US-17.

WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THERE IS A SUBTLE RISE IN MOISTURE FROM OFF THE OCEAN. THIS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO POP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT
SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE CAP IN PLACE
THIS SUPPORTS POPS NO MORE THAN A SILENT 14 PERCENT. SIMILAR 850 MB
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...SO LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS.

THURSDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SW ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT A LITTLE BACK TOWARD THE SE STATES AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH. THERE IS A FURTHER INFLUX OF MARITIME
MOISTURE WITHIN AN EAST-SE SYNOPTIC FLOW...BOOSTING PWATS BACK UP TO
WHAT IS MORE TYPICAL. FORCING FROM THIS NEARBY SURFACE FEATURE AND
THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
REALIZED. AN INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN WITH THIS SET OF TAFS IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS FROM THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. I HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE
FROM THE 00Z TAFS...AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. I STILL HAVE VCTS
STARTING AROUND 21Z-22Z...AND THEN ENDING AROUND 02Z-03Z. GIVEN
THAT THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED...DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE ADDING TEMPO GROUPS FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN FACT...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AT
TIMES...BUT WILL NOT HOIST ANY ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT BEYOND. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS FROM THE LAND
TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS TO EVENTUALLY VEER
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 OR 12 KT
AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH /ALSO KNOWN AS A
COASTAL TROUGH/ WILL HAVE DEVELOPED NEARBY EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE/LL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE
HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL HAVE
RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND
THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 281048
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
648 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES AS THE OVERALL LONGWAVE DIGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD. A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AS ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
SLIDES INTO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND BEGINS TO
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
FOCUSES ON TWO MAIN IMPACTS...WARM TEMPERATURES AND A RESULTING
HEAT ADVISORY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
FIRST REGARDING THE HEAT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES TO FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100
IN SOME AREAS. WE WILL GET A WARM START AS MANY AREAS WILL HAVE
FAILED TO FALL BELOW 80 THIS MORNING. THESE FORECAST HIGHS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES AT 110 FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT
ADVISORY AND ITS VALID TIME IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE ONLY THING TO
WATCH IS THE CHANCE THAT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE OVERNIGHT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY LIMIT INSOLATION JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS IT WILL STILL
BE VERY HOT AND HUMID.

FINALLY...THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON
TRACK. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT.
THE SUITE OF MODELS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND ALSO
SEEMS TO AGREE ON A CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIME AROUND 21Z. WHEN
CONVECTION DOES BEGIN TO DEVELOP IT WILL LIKELY START RIGHT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OR PERHAPS ALONG THE BORDER WITH THE MIDLANDS. WHEN
THESE STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP...THE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE JULY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER. CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE
WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -9. HAIL CAPES AND DCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 1000...LEADING TO THE THREAT FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. FURTHERMORE...A 40-45 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX COINCIDENT
WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL RESULT IN 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 25-30 KNOTS. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
LEAD TO THE FAVORED CONVECTIVE MODE BEING MULTICELLS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ONCE STORM STORMS DEVELOP
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THESE STORMS MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOLIDLY WITHIN THE
DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC WITH INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BOTH A
WIND AND HAIL THREAT. A FEW ROTATING STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS GET CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INTERACT WITH
THE PINNED SEA BREEZE...BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR THE SEVERE RISK REVOLVES
AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LINGERING DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS. THIS COULD
POSSIBLY REDUCE THE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND LOWER THE COVERAGE
AND STRENGTH OF STORMS. THE THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THE LINGERING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING PRIOR TO PEAK
HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT ITS PEAK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IN THE EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. POPS
DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A DRY
FORECAST IS IN PLACE BY LATE TONIGHT. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S FAR INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.

A BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH FOR MID SUMMER WILL SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ONE THAT IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THIS SENDS THE COLD FRONT OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IT STALLS OUT ROUGHLY FROM BERMUDA TO
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY...INITIALLY THERE IS A BREAK FROM OUR HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OF LATE WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 8-10K FT WITH PWATS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TO AROUND 1 INCH...OR EVEN MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY THERE IS NO RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...QUITE A BIT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 14-16C. THIS EQUATES TO TEMPS
SOME 6-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES INLAND FROM US-17.

WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THERE IS A SUBTLE RISE IN MOISTURE FROM OFF THE OCEAN. THIS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO POP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT
SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE CAP IN PLACE
THIS SUPPORTS POPS NO MORE THAN A SILENT 14 PERCENT. SIMILAR 850 MB
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...SO LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS.

THURSDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SW ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT A LITTLE BACK TOWARD THE SE STATES AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH. THERE IS A FURTHER INFLUX OF MARITIME
MOISTURE WITHIN AN EAST-SE SYNOPTIC FLOW...BOOSTING PWATS BACK UP TO
WHAT IS MORE TYPICAL. FORCING FROM THIS NEARBY SURFACE FEATURE AND
THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
REALIZED. AN INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN WITH THIS SET OF TAFS IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS FROM THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. I HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE
FROM THE 00Z TAFS...AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. I STILL HAVE VCTS
STARTING AROUND 21Z-22Z...AND THEN ENDING AROUND 02Z-03Z. GIVEN
THAT THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED...DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE ADDING TEMPO GROUPS FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN FACT...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AT
TIMES...BUT WILL NOT HOIST ANY ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT BEYOND. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS FROM THE LAND
TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS TO EVENTUALLY VEER
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 OR 12 KT
AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH /ALSO KNOWN AS A
COASTAL TROUGH/ WILL HAVE DEVELOPED NEARBY EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE/LL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE
HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL HAVE
RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND
THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 281048
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
648 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES AS THE OVERALL LONGWAVE DIGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD. A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AS ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
SLIDES INTO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND BEGINS TO
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
FOCUSES ON TWO MAIN IMPACTS...WARM TEMPERATURES AND A RESULTING
HEAT ADVISORY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
FIRST REGARDING THE HEAT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES TO FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100
IN SOME AREAS. WE WILL GET A WARM START AS MANY AREAS WILL HAVE
FAILED TO FALL BELOW 80 THIS MORNING. THESE FORECAST HIGHS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES AT 110 FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT
ADVISORY AND ITS VALID TIME IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE ONLY THING TO
WATCH IS THE CHANCE THAT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE OVERNIGHT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY LIMIT INSOLATION JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS IT WILL STILL
BE VERY HOT AND HUMID.

FINALLY...THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON
TRACK. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT.
THE SUITE OF MODELS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND ALSO
SEEMS TO AGREE ON A CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIME AROUND 21Z. WHEN
CONVECTION DOES BEGIN TO DEVELOP IT WILL LIKELY START RIGHT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OR PERHAPS ALONG THE BORDER WITH THE MIDLANDS. WHEN
THESE STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP...THE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE JULY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER. CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE
WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -9. HAIL CAPES AND DCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 1000...LEADING TO THE THREAT FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. FURTHERMORE...A 40-45 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX COINCIDENT
WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL RESULT IN 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 25-30 KNOTS. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
LEAD TO THE FAVORED CONVECTIVE MODE BEING MULTICELLS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ONCE STORM STORMS DEVELOP
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THESE STORMS MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOLIDLY WITHIN THE
DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC WITH INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BOTH A
WIND AND HAIL THREAT. A FEW ROTATING STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS GET CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INTERACT WITH
THE PINNED SEA BREEZE...BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR THE SEVERE RISK REVOLVES
AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LINGERING DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS. THIS COULD
POSSIBLY REDUCE THE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND LOWER THE COVERAGE
AND STRENGTH OF STORMS. THE THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THE LINGERING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING PRIOR TO PEAK
HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT ITS PEAK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IN THE EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. POPS
DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A DRY
FORECAST IS IN PLACE BY LATE TONIGHT. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S FAR INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.

A BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH FOR MID SUMMER WILL SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ONE THAT IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THIS SENDS THE COLD FRONT OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IT STALLS OUT ROUGHLY FROM BERMUDA TO
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY...INITIALLY THERE IS A BREAK FROM OUR HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OF LATE WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 8-10K FT WITH PWATS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TO AROUND 1 INCH...OR EVEN MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY THERE IS NO RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...QUITE A BIT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 14-16C. THIS EQUATES TO TEMPS
SOME 6-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES INLAND FROM US-17.

WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THERE IS A SUBTLE RISE IN MOISTURE FROM OFF THE OCEAN. THIS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO POP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT
SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE CAP IN PLACE
THIS SUPPORTS POPS NO MORE THAN A SILENT 14 PERCENT. SIMILAR 850 MB
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...SO LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS.

THURSDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SW ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT A LITTLE BACK TOWARD THE SE STATES AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH. THERE IS A FURTHER INFLUX OF MARITIME
MOISTURE WITHIN AN EAST-SE SYNOPTIC FLOW...BOOSTING PWATS BACK UP TO
WHAT IS MORE TYPICAL. FORCING FROM THIS NEARBY SURFACE FEATURE AND
THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
REALIZED. AN INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN WITH THIS SET OF TAFS IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS FROM THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. I HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE
FROM THE 00Z TAFS...AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. I STILL HAVE VCTS
STARTING AROUND 21Z-22Z...AND THEN ENDING AROUND 02Z-03Z. GIVEN
THAT THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED...DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE ADDING TEMPO GROUPS FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN FACT...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AT
TIMES...BUT WILL NOT HOIST ANY ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT BEYOND. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS FROM THE LAND
TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS TO EVENTUALLY VEER
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 OR 12 KT
AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH /ALSO KNOWN AS A
COASTAL TROUGH/ WILL HAVE DEVELOPED NEARBY EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE/LL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE
HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL HAVE
RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND
THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 281048
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
648 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES AS THE OVERALL LONGWAVE DIGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD. A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AS ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
SLIDES INTO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND BEGINS TO
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
FOCUSES ON TWO MAIN IMPACTS...WARM TEMPERATURES AND A RESULTING
HEAT ADVISORY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
FIRST REGARDING THE HEAT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES TO FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100
IN SOME AREAS. WE WILL GET A WARM START AS MANY AREAS WILL HAVE
FAILED TO FALL BELOW 80 THIS MORNING. THESE FORECAST HIGHS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES AT 110 FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT
ADVISORY AND ITS VALID TIME IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE ONLY THING TO
WATCH IS THE CHANCE THAT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE OVERNIGHT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY LIMIT INSOLATION JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS IT WILL STILL
BE VERY HOT AND HUMID.

FINALLY...THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON
TRACK. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT.
THE SUITE OF MODELS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND ALSO
SEEMS TO AGREE ON A CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIME AROUND 21Z. WHEN
CONVECTION DOES BEGIN TO DEVELOP IT WILL LIKELY START RIGHT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OR PERHAPS ALONG THE BORDER WITH THE MIDLANDS. WHEN
THESE STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP...THE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE JULY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER. CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE
WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -9. HAIL CAPES AND DCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 1000...LEADING TO THE THREAT FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. FURTHERMORE...A 40-45 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX COINCIDENT
WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL RESULT IN 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 25-30 KNOTS. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
LEAD TO THE FAVORED CONVECTIVE MODE BEING MULTICELLS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ONCE STORM STORMS DEVELOP
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THESE STORMS MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOLIDLY WITHIN THE
DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC WITH INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BOTH A
WIND AND HAIL THREAT. A FEW ROTATING STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS GET CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INTERACT WITH
THE PINNED SEA BREEZE...BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR THE SEVERE RISK REVOLVES
AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LINGERING DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS. THIS COULD
POSSIBLY REDUCE THE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND LOWER THE COVERAGE
AND STRENGTH OF STORMS. THE THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THE LINGERING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING PRIOR TO PEAK
HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT ITS PEAK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IN THE EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. POPS
DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A DRY
FORECAST IS IN PLACE BY LATE TONIGHT. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S FAR INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.

A BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH FOR MID SUMMER WILL SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ONE THAT IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THIS SENDS THE COLD FRONT OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IT STALLS OUT ROUGHLY FROM BERMUDA TO
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY...INITIALLY THERE IS A BREAK FROM OUR HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OF LATE WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 8-10K FT WITH PWATS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TO AROUND 1 INCH...OR EVEN MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY THERE IS NO RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...QUITE A BIT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 14-16C. THIS EQUATES TO TEMPS
SOME 6-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES INLAND FROM US-17.

WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THERE IS A SUBTLE RISE IN MOISTURE FROM OFF THE OCEAN. THIS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO POP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT
SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE CAP IN PLACE
THIS SUPPORTS POPS NO MORE THAN A SILENT 14 PERCENT. SIMILAR 850 MB
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...SO LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS.

THURSDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SW ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT A LITTLE BACK TOWARD THE SE STATES AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH. THERE IS A FURTHER INFLUX OF MARITIME
MOISTURE WITHIN AN EAST-SE SYNOPTIC FLOW...BOOSTING PWATS BACK UP TO
WHAT IS MORE TYPICAL. FORCING FROM THIS NEARBY SURFACE FEATURE AND
THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
REALIZED. AN INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN WITH THIS SET OF TAFS IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS FROM THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. I HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE
FROM THE 00Z TAFS...AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. I STILL HAVE VCTS
STARTING AROUND 21Z-22Z...AND THEN ENDING AROUND 02Z-03Z. GIVEN
THAT THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED...DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE ADDING TEMPO GROUPS FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN FACT...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AT
TIMES...BUT WILL NOT HOIST ANY ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT BEYOND. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS FROM THE LAND
TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS TO EVENTUALLY VEER
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 OR 12 KT
AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH /ALSO KNOWN AS A
COASTAL TROUGH/ WILL HAVE DEVELOPED NEARBY EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE/LL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE
HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL HAVE
RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND
THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 280857
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
456 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MAY STILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES TO START OFF THE DAY. THEN A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE CWA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. QUESTION
REMAINS IN REGARDS TO OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT THE HIGH
RES MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO TRIGGER ACTIVITY ALONG AN
AUGUSTA TO COLUMBIA TO SUMTER LINE SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME...THEN
RAPIDLY PUSHING ALL THE ACTIVITY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST WHERE
IT MAY BE ABLE TO INTENSIFY EVEN MORE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
DUE TO STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODELS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MAIN
ISSUES WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REVOLVE AROUND STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH A HAIL THREAT. THE LATEST SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK STILL SHOWS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE RAINFALL. FOR NOW WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND WHICH GIVES HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA AND OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY IN THE EVENING
AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
PRIOR NIGHTS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SET UP OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL
LEAD TO A MORE REFRESHING PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 65 TO 70
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WE ENTER INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...ALONG WITH ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN AS WE ENTER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
18Z-24Z AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TAF SITES.

CONVECTION CROSSING THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. COULD SEE PATCHES OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH POSSIBLY LIGHT SHOWERS AT AGS/DNL.
MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THIS CONVECTION DIMINISHING...SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED PRECIP THIS MORNING IN TAFS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA IN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD INTENSIFY EAST OF
CAE/CUB...AND MAYBE JUST EAST OF DNL/AGS. HAVE INDICATED VCTS FOR
OGB 21Z-24Z GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND COVERAGE.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE COLD FRONT BE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES BY 29/00Z WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 280857
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
456 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MAY STILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES TO START OFF THE DAY. THEN A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE CWA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. QUESTION
REMAINS IN REGARDS TO OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT THE HIGH
RES MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO TRIGGER ACTIVITY ALONG AN
AUGUSTA TO COLUMBIA TO SUMTER LINE SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME...THEN
RAPIDLY PUSHING ALL THE ACTIVITY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST WHERE
IT MAY BE ABLE TO INTENSIFY EVEN MORE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
DUE TO STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODELS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MAIN
ISSUES WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REVOLVE AROUND STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH A HAIL THREAT. THE LATEST SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK STILL SHOWS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE RAINFALL. FOR NOW WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND WHICH GIVES HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA AND OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY IN THE EVENING
AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
PRIOR NIGHTS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SET UP OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL
LEAD TO A MORE REFRESHING PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 65 TO 70
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WE ENTER INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...ALONG WITH ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN AS WE ENTER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
18Z-24Z AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TAF SITES.

CONVECTION CROSSING THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. COULD SEE PATCHES OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH POSSIBLY LIGHT SHOWERS AT AGS/DNL.
MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THIS CONVECTION DIMINISHING...SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED PRECIP THIS MORNING IN TAFS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA IN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD INTENSIFY EAST OF
CAE/CUB...AND MAYBE JUST EAST OF DNL/AGS. HAVE INDICATED VCTS FOR
OGB 21Z-24Z GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND COVERAGE.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE COLD FRONT BE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES BY 29/00Z WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 280811
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
411 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS
NORTH GA THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
NORTH GA WEAKENING EARLY THIS MORNING TO MAINLY JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BY 6 AM
TO 8 AM THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND IS NOTED AND
EXPECTED... MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 20-30KT WIND SHEAR
VALUES ARE NOTED ACROSS NORTH GA THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION. THIS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST AS THE CONVECTION PUSHES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER... SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE GREATEST STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS
CENTRAL GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO A MUCH MORE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES TOWARD A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BETWEEN 4-6 PM THIS
AFTERNOON... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONGER STORMS FIRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG...
COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT MID LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT RISK AREA
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD PUSH
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 8-10 PM THIS EVENING... WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

A MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS... AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY STRUGGLE TO
GET INTO THE MID 80S FOR NORTH GA... UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S LOOK
REASONABLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL GA ON TUESDAY.

39


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES IN OVER
THE REGION AND SETTLES IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH
PULLS IN SOME DRIER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUE/WED. BY THU MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYS 6 AND 7.

01


&&


.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z TODAY AROUND THE ATLANTA TAF SITES AS CONVECTION
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WILL SHOW
PREVAILING LOW VFR CIGS WITH A TEMPO 11-15Z -TSRA AND MVFR CIGS WITH
THE CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS ATLANTA TAF SITES
BETWEEN 15-18Z TODAY... WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW AND GRADUAL CLEARING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN WSW AROUND 10KTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT... THEN SHIFT NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT. NW WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 10KTS BY 01-03Z
TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING TIMING OF CONVECTION...HIGH FOR ALL OTHER
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  64  87  64 /  50  10   5   5
ATLANTA         89  66  85  65 /  50  10   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     82  60  79  55 /  30  10  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    88  62  84  61 /  50   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        95  67  89  66 /  50  20   5   5
GAINESVILLE     89  65  84  64 /  50  10   5   5
MACON           97  65  90  63 /  60  20   5   5
ROME            88  62  85  61 /  40   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  90  63  85  60 /  50  10   5   5
VIDALIA         98  71  91  67 /  70  60   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39





000
FXUS62 KFFC 280811
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
411 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS
NORTH GA THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
NORTH GA WEAKENING EARLY THIS MORNING TO MAINLY JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BY 6 AM
TO 8 AM THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND IS NOTED AND
EXPECTED... MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 20-30KT WIND SHEAR
VALUES ARE NOTED ACROSS NORTH GA THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION. THIS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST AS THE CONVECTION PUSHES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER... SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE GREATEST STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS
CENTRAL GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO A MUCH MORE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES TOWARD A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BETWEEN 4-6 PM THIS
AFTERNOON... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONGER STORMS FIRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG...
COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT MID LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT RISK AREA
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD PUSH
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 8-10 PM THIS EVENING... WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

A MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS... AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY STRUGGLE TO
GET INTO THE MID 80S FOR NORTH GA... UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S LOOK
REASONABLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL GA ON TUESDAY.

39


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES IN OVER
THE REGION AND SETTLES IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH
PULLS IN SOME DRIER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUE/WED. BY THU MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYS 6 AND 7.

01


&&


.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z TODAY AROUND THE ATLANTA TAF SITES AS CONVECTION
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WILL SHOW
PREVAILING LOW VFR CIGS WITH A TEMPO 11-15Z -TSRA AND MVFR CIGS WITH
THE CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS ATLANTA TAF SITES
BETWEEN 15-18Z TODAY... WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW AND GRADUAL CLEARING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN WSW AROUND 10KTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT... THEN SHIFT NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT. NW WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 10KTS BY 01-03Z
TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING TIMING OF CONVECTION...HIGH FOR ALL OTHER
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  64  87  64 /  50  10   5   5
ATLANTA         89  66  85  65 /  50  10   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     82  60  79  55 /  30  10  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    88  62  84  61 /  50   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        95  67  89  66 /  50  20   5   5
GAINESVILLE     89  65  84  64 /  50  10   5   5
MACON           97  65  90  63 /  60  20   5   5
ROME            88  62  85  61 /  40   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  90  63  85  60 /  50  10   5   5
VIDALIA         98  71  91  67 /  70  60   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39





000
FXUS62 KFFC 280811
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
411 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS
NORTH GA THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
NORTH GA WEAKENING EARLY THIS MORNING TO MAINLY JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BY 6 AM
TO 8 AM THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND IS NOTED AND
EXPECTED... MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 20-30KT WIND SHEAR
VALUES ARE NOTED ACROSS NORTH GA THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION. THIS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST AS THE CONVECTION PUSHES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER... SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE GREATEST STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS
CENTRAL GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO A MUCH MORE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES TOWARD A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BETWEEN 4-6 PM THIS
AFTERNOON... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONGER STORMS FIRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG...
COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT MID LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT RISK AREA
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD PUSH
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 8-10 PM THIS EVENING... WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

A MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS... AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY STRUGGLE TO
GET INTO THE MID 80S FOR NORTH GA... UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S LOOK
REASONABLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL GA ON TUESDAY.

39


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES IN OVER
THE REGION AND SETTLES IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH
PULLS IN SOME DRIER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUE/WED. BY THU MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYS 6 AND 7.

01


&&


.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z TODAY AROUND THE ATLANTA TAF SITES AS CONVECTION
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WILL SHOW
PREVAILING LOW VFR CIGS WITH A TEMPO 11-15Z -TSRA AND MVFR CIGS WITH
THE CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS ATLANTA TAF SITES
BETWEEN 15-18Z TODAY... WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW AND GRADUAL CLEARING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN WSW AROUND 10KTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT... THEN SHIFT NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT. NW WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 10KTS BY 01-03Z
TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING TIMING OF CONVECTION...HIGH FOR ALL OTHER
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  64  87  64 /  50  10   5   5
ATLANTA         89  66  85  65 /  50  10   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     82  60  79  55 /  30  10  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    88  62  84  61 /  50   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        95  67  89  66 /  50  20   5   5
GAINESVILLE     89  65  84  64 /  50  10   5   5
MACON           97  65  90  63 /  60  20   5   5
ROME            88  62  85  61 /  40   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  90  63  85  60 /  50  10   5   5
VIDALIA         98  71  91  67 /  70  60   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39





000
FXUS62 KFFC 280811
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
411 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS
NORTH GA THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
NORTH GA WEAKENING EARLY THIS MORNING TO MAINLY JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BY 6 AM
TO 8 AM THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND IS NOTED AND
EXPECTED... MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 20-30KT WIND SHEAR
VALUES ARE NOTED ACROSS NORTH GA THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION. THIS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST AS THE CONVECTION PUSHES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER... SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE GREATEST STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS
CENTRAL GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO A MUCH MORE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES TOWARD A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BETWEEN 4-6 PM THIS
AFTERNOON... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONGER STORMS FIRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG...
COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT MID LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT RISK AREA
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD PUSH
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 8-10 PM THIS EVENING... WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

A MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT... BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS... AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY STRUGGLE TO
GET INTO THE MID 80S FOR NORTH GA... UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S LOOK
REASONABLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL GA ON TUESDAY.

39


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES IN OVER
THE REGION AND SETTLES IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH
PULLS IN SOME DRIER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUE/WED. BY THU MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYS 6 AND 7.

01


&&


.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z TODAY AROUND THE ATLANTA TAF SITES AS CONVECTION
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WILL SHOW
PREVAILING LOW VFR CIGS WITH A TEMPO 11-15Z -TSRA AND MVFR CIGS WITH
THE CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS ATLANTA TAF SITES
BETWEEN 15-18Z TODAY... WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW AND GRADUAL CLEARING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN WSW AROUND 10KTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT... THEN SHIFT NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT. NW WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 10KTS BY 01-03Z
TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING TIMING OF CONVECTION...HIGH FOR ALL OTHER
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  64  87  64 /  50  10   5   5
ATLANTA         89  66  85  65 /  50  10   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     82  60  79  55 /  30  10  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    88  62  84  61 /  50   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        95  67  89  66 /  50  20   5   5
GAINESVILLE     89  65  84  64 /  50  10   5   5
MACON           97  65  90  63 /  60  20   5   5
ROME            88  62  85  61 /  40   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  90  63  85  60 /  50  10   5   5
VIDALIA         98  71  91  67 /  70  60   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39





000
FXUS62 KCHS 280745
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
345 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IR SATELLITE
CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY DIMINISHES. MODELS ALL
SHOW ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPSTREAM
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNRISE AS A RESULT. THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THIS
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY IS INCREASING DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS WHICH MAY
EVENTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.

TODAY...THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
AS THE OVERALL LONGWAVE DIGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD. A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AS ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SLIDES
INTO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND BEGINS TO CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY FOCUSES ON TWO
MAIN IMPACTS...WARM TEMPERATURES AND A RESULTING HEAT ADVISORY...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. FIRST REGARDING THE HEAT...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES TO
FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100 IN SOME AREAS. WE WILL GET A
WARM START AS MANY AREAS WILL FAIL TO FALL BELOW 80 BEFORE SUNRISE.
THESE FORECAST HIGHS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES AT 110 FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HEAT ADVISORY AND ITS VALID TIME IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
THE ONLY THING TO WATCH IS THE CHANCE THAT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE OVERNIGHT UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY LIMIT INSOLATION JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW THE FORECAST.
REGARDLESS IT WILL STILL BE VERY HOT AND HUMID.

FINALLY...THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON
TRACK. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT.
THE SUITE OF MODELS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND ALSO
SEEMS TO AGREE ON A CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIME AROUND 21Z. WHEN
CONVECTION DOES BEGIN TO DEVELOP IT WILL LIKELY START RIGHT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OR PERHAPS ALONG THE BORDER WITH THE MIDLANDS. WHEN
THESE STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP...THE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE JULY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER. CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE
WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -9. HAIL CAPES AND DCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 1000...LEADING TO THE THREAT FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. FURTHERMORE...A 40-45 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX COINCIDENT
WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL RESULT IN 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 25-30 KNOTS. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
LEAD TO THE FAVORED CONVECTIVE MODE BEING MULTICELLS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ONCE STORM STORMS DEVELOP
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THESE STORMS MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOLIDLY WITHIN THE
DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC WITH INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BOTH A
WIND AND HAIL THREAT. A FEW ROTATING STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS GET CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INTERACT WITH
THE PINNED SEA BREEZE...BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR THE SEVERE RISK REVOLVES
AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LINGERING DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS. THIS COULD
POSSIBLY REDUCE THE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND LOWER THE COVERAGE
AND STRENGTH OF STORMS. THE THINKING THOUGH IS THAT ANY LINGERING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY IN THE MORNING PRIOR TO PEAK
HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT ITS PEAK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IN THE EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. POPS
DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A DRY
FORECAST IS IN PLACE BY LATE TONIGHT. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S FAR INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.

A BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH FOR MID SUMMER WILL SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ONE THAT IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THIS SENDS THE COLD FRONT OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IT STALLS OUT ROUGHLY FROM BERMUDA TO
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY...INITIALLY THERE IS A BREAK FROM OUR HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OF LATE WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 8-10K FT WITH PWATS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TO AROUND 1 INCH...OR EVEN MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY THERE IS NO RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...QUITE A BIT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 14-16C. THIS EQUATES TO TEMPS
SOME 6-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES INLAND FROM US-17.

WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THERE IS A SUBTLE RISE IN MOISTURE FROM OFF THE OCEAN. THIS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO POP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT
SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE CAP IN PLACE
THIS SUPPORTS POPS NO MORE THAN A SILENT 14 PERCENT. SIMILAR 850 MB
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...SO LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS.

THURSDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SW ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT A LITTLE BACK TOWARD THE SE STATES AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH. THERE IS A FURTHER INFLUX OF MARITIME
MOISTURE WITHIN AN EAST-SE SYNOPTIC FLOW...BOOSTING PWATS BACK UP TO
WHAT IS MORE TYPICAL. FORCING FROM THIS NEARBY SURFACE FEATURE AND
THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
REALIZED. AN INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN WITH THIS SET OF TAFS IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS FROM THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. I HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE
FROM THE 00Z TAFS...AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. I STILL HAVE VCTS
STARTING AROUND 21Z-22Z...AND THEN ENDING AROUND 02Z-03Z. GIVEN
THAT THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED...DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE ADDING TEMPO GROUPS FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN FACT...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AT
TIMES...BUT WILL NOT HOIST ANY ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT BEYOND. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS FROM THE LAND
TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS TO EVENTUALLY VEER
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 OR 12 KT
AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH /ALSO KNOWN AS A
COASTAL TROUGH/ WILL HAVE DEVELOPED NEARBY EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE/LL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE
HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL HAVE
RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND
THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...33/BSH
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 280553
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
153 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...ALL IS QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NO
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON RADAR. THE ONLY THING OF REAL NOTE IS
THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE CONVECTION ITSELF HAS BEEN ON A DISSIPATING
TREND AS NOTED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND DECREASING LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY. THIS DIMINISHING TREND IS SUPPORTING BY THE MODELS AND
NONE OF IT IS EXPECTED TO SURVIVE AND IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE MILD OUT EVEN FOR LATE JULY. RIGHT
NOW MANY AREAS ARE STILL REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S
WHICH IS STILL GIVING US HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL AHEAD
OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. STRONG SFC HEATING UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
ADDITIONAL TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS YEAR...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES WHILE
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER A MODERATELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
THIS AMOUNT OF HEATING ALONG WITH SFC DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID
70S UNDER THE CAP SUPPORTS HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL THEREFORE BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BETWEEN 11 AM TO 7 PM. ONCE WE GET INTO MID
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST
WILL SWITCH OVER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AS WE HEAD INTO MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP BREAKS
OVER THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
NEAR -10 C...FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS HAIL
CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY MONDAY
EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED INITIALLY...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS APPARENT AS A LARGE MID LVL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A H25
JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE DIGGING
TROUGH WILL FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SUNSET...THEN INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...THE LARGEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE RISK LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES
ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE
FROPA OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS
BY TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST. BY WEDNESDAY...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN WITH THIS SET OF TAFS IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS FROM THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. I HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE
FROM THE 00Z TAFS...AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. I STILL HAVE VCTS
STARTING AROUND 21Z-22Z...AND THEN ENDING AROUND 02Z-03Z. GIVEN
THAT THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED...DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE ADDING TEMPO GROUPS FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS...WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY...HOWEVER EXPECT ONLY A PORTION OF THESE WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE
THUS INDICATED SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
ZONES...CONFIDENCE IN THE FREQUENCY OF THESE WINDS IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS OVER THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...DPB/WMS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280553
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
153 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...ALL IS QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NO
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON RADAR. THE ONLY THING OF REAL NOTE IS
THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE CONVECTION ITSELF HAS BEEN ON A DISSIPATING
TREND AS NOTED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND DECREASING LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY. THIS DIMINISHING TREND IS SUPPORTING BY THE MODELS AND
NONE OF IT IS EXPECTED TO SURVIVE AND IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE MILD OUT EVEN FOR LATE JULY. RIGHT
NOW MANY AREAS ARE STILL REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S
WHICH IS STILL GIVING US HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL AHEAD
OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. STRONG SFC HEATING UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
ADDITIONAL TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS YEAR...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES WHILE
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER A MODERATELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
THIS AMOUNT OF HEATING ALONG WITH SFC DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID
70S UNDER THE CAP SUPPORTS HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL THEREFORE BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BETWEEN 11 AM TO 7 PM. ONCE WE GET INTO MID
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST
WILL SWITCH OVER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AS WE HEAD INTO MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP BREAKS
OVER THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
NEAR -10 C...FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS HAIL
CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY MONDAY
EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED INITIALLY...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS APPARENT AS A LARGE MID LVL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A H25
JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE DIGGING
TROUGH WILL FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SUNSET...THEN INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...THE LARGEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE RISK LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES
ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE
FROPA OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS
BY TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST. BY WEDNESDAY...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN WITH THIS SET OF TAFS IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS FROM THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. I HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE
FROM THE 00Z TAFS...AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. I STILL HAVE VCTS
STARTING AROUND 21Z-22Z...AND THEN ENDING AROUND 02Z-03Z. GIVEN
THAT THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED...DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE ADDING TEMPO GROUPS FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS...WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY...HOWEVER EXPECT ONLY A PORTION OF THESE WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE
THUS INDICATED SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
ZONES...CONFIDENCE IN THE FREQUENCY OF THESE WINDS IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS OVER THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...DPB/WMS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280553
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
153 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...ALL IS QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NO
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON RADAR. THE ONLY THING OF REAL NOTE IS
THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE CONVECTION ITSELF HAS BEEN ON A DISSIPATING
TREND AS NOTED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND DECREASING LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY. THIS DIMINISHING TREND IS SUPPORTING BY THE MODELS AND
NONE OF IT IS EXPECTED TO SURVIVE AND IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE MILD OUT EVEN FOR LATE JULY. RIGHT
NOW MANY AREAS ARE STILL REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S
WHICH IS STILL GIVING US HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL AHEAD
OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. STRONG SFC HEATING UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
ADDITIONAL TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS YEAR...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES WHILE
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER A MODERATELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
THIS AMOUNT OF HEATING ALONG WITH SFC DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID
70S UNDER THE CAP SUPPORTS HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL THEREFORE BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BETWEEN 11 AM TO 7 PM. ONCE WE GET INTO MID
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST
WILL SWITCH OVER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AS WE HEAD INTO MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP BREAKS
OVER THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
NEAR -10 C...FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS HAIL
CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY MONDAY
EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED INITIALLY...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS APPARENT AS A LARGE MID LVL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A H25
JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE DIGGING
TROUGH WILL FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SUNSET...THEN INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...THE LARGEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE RISK LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES
ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE
FROPA OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS
BY TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST. BY WEDNESDAY...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN WITH THIS SET OF TAFS IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS FROM THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. I HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE
FROM THE 00Z TAFS...AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. I STILL HAVE VCTS
STARTING AROUND 21Z-22Z...AND THEN ENDING AROUND 02Z-03Z. GIVEN
THAT THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED...DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE ADDING TEMPO GROUPS FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS...WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY...HOWEVER EXPECT ONLY A PORTION OF THESE WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE
THUS INDICATED SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
ZONES...CONFIDENCE IN THE FREQUENCY OF THESE WINDS IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS OVER THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...DPB/WMS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280553
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
153 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...ALL IS QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NO
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON RADAR. THE ONLY THING OF REAL NOTE IS
THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE CONVECTION ITSELF HAS BEEN ON A DISSIPATING
TREND AS NOTED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND DECREASING LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY. THIS DIMINISHING TREND IS SUPPORTING BY THE MODELS AND
NONE OF IT IS EXPECTED TO SURVIVE AND IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE MILD OUT EVEN FOR LATE JULY. RIGHT
NOW MANY AREAS ARE STILL REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S
WHICH IS STILL GIVING US HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL AHEAD
OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. STRONG SFC HEATING UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
ADDITIONAL TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS YEAR...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES WHILE
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER A MODERATELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
THIS AMOUNT OF HEATING ALONG WITH SFC DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID
70S UNDER THE CAP SUPPORTS HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL THEREFORE BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BETWEEN 11 AM TO 7 PM. ONCE WE GET INTO MID
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST
WILL SWITCH OVER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AS WE HEAD INTO MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP BREAKS
OVER THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
NEAR -10 C...FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS HAIL
CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY MONDAY
EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED INITIALLY...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS APPARENT AS A LARGE MID LVL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A H25
JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE DIGGING
TROUGH WILL FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SUNSET...THEN INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...THE LARGEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE RISK LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES
ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE
FROPA OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS
BY TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST. BY WEDNESDAY...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN WITH THIS SET OF TAFS IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS FROM THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. I HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE
FROM THE 00Z TAFS...AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. I STILL HAVE VCTS
STARTING AROUND 21Z-22Z...AND THEN ENDING AROUND 02Z-03Z. GIVEN
THAT THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED...DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE ADDING TEMPO GROUPS FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS...WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY...HOWEVER EXPECT ONLY A PORTION OF THESE WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE
THUS INDICATED SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
ZONES...CONFIDENCE IN THE FREQUENCY OF THESE WINDS IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS OVER THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...DPB/WMS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 280553
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
153 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING UPSTREAM CONVECTION
MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN TN AND WESTERN NC...PREPARING TO
MOVE INTO THE UPSTATE OF SC. CONVECTION DOES LOOK QUITE IMPRESSIVE
ON THE REGIONAL RADAR...BUT THE LATEST HRRR MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LINE TO DIMINISH AND FALL APART BY 09Z-
10Z...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA AT
THAT TIME BEFORE DIMINISHING EVEN MORE. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THAT SOLUTION SINCE IT SEEMS TO BE ONE OF THE FEW MODELS RIGHT NOW
THAT HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION AREA.

TODAY...MAY STILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES TO START OFF THE DAY. THEN A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE CWA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. QUESTION
REMAINS IN REGARDS TO OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT THE HIGH
RES MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO TRIGGER ACTIVITY ALONG AN
AUGUSTA TO COLUMBIA TO SUMTER LINE SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME...THEN
RAPIDLY PUSHING ALL THE ACTIVITY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST WHERE
IT MAY BE ABLE TO INTENSIFY EVEN MORE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
DUE TO STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODELS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MAIN
ISSUES WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REVOLVE AROUND STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH A HAIL THREAT. THE LATEST SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK STILL SHOWS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE RAINFALL. FOR NOW WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND WHICH GIVES HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA AND OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY IN THE EVENING
AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
PRIOR NIGHTS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SET UP OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL
LEAD TO A MORE REFRESHING PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 65 TO 70
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WE ENTER INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...ALONG WITH ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN AS WE ENTER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STAY UP.

STRONG CONVECTION MOVING OVER WESTERN NC AND MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND
MOVE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN GA THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE
MODELS INDICATE THIS CONVECTION DIMINISHING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
CONVECTION THIS MORNING IN TAFS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF CAE/CUB...AND MAY BE JUST
EAST OF DNL/AGS. HAVE INDICATED VCTS FOR OGB 21Z-24Z GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND COVERAGE.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF THE TAF
SITES BY 29/00Z WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KCAE 280553
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
153 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING UPSTREAM CONVECTION
MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN TN AND WESTERN NC...PREPARING TO
MOVE INTO THE UPSTATE OF SC. CONVECTION DOES LOOK QUITE IMPRESSIVE
ON THE REGIONAL RADAR...BUT THE LATEST HRRR MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LINE TO DIMINISH AND FALL APART BY 09Z-
10Z...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA AT
THAT TIME BEFORE DIMINISHING EVEN MORE. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THAT SOLUTION SINCE IT SEEMS TO BE ONE OF THE FEW MODELS RIGHT NOW
THAT HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION AREA.

TODAY...MAY STILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES TO START OFF THE DAY. THEN A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE CWA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. QUESTION
REMAINS IN REGARDS TO OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT THE HIGH
RES MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO TRIGGER ACTIVITY ALONG AN
AUGUSTA TO COLUMBIA TO SUMTER LINE SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME...THEN
RAPIDLY PUSHING ALL THE ACTIVITY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST WHERE
IT MAY BE ABLE TO INTENSIFY EVEN MORE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
DUE TO STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODELS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MAIN
ISSUES WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REVOLVE AROUND STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH A HAIL THREAT. THE LATEST SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK STILL SHOWS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE RAINFALL. FOR NOW WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND WHICH GIVES HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA AND OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY IN THE EVENING
AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
PRIOR NIGHTS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SET UP OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL
LEAD TO A MORE REFRESHING PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 65 TO 70
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WE ENTER INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...ALONG WITH ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN AS WE ENTER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STAY UP.

STRONG CONVECTION MOVING OVER WESTERN NC AND MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND
MOVE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN GA THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE
MODELS INDICATE THIS CONVECTION DIMINISHING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
CONVECTION THIS MORNING IN TAFS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF CAE/CUB...AND MAY BE JUST
EAST OF DNL/AGS. HAVE INDICATED VCTS FOR OGB 21Z-24Z GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND COVERAGE.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF THE TAF
SITES BY 29/00Z WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KCAE 280553
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
153 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING UPSTREAM CONVECTION
MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN TN AND WESTERN NC...PREPARING TO
MOVE INTO THE UPSTATE OF SC. CONVECTION DOES LOOK QUITE IMPRESSIVE
ON THE REGIONAL RADAR...BUT THE LATEST HRRR MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LINE TO DIMINISH AND FALL APART BY 09Z-
10Z...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA AT
THAT TIME BEFORE DIMINISHING EVEN MORE. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THAT SOLUTION SINCE IT SEEMS TO BE ONE OF THE FEW MODELS RIGHT NOW
THAT HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION AREA.

TODAY...MAY STILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES TO START OFF THE DAY. THEN A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE CWA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. QUESTION
REMAINS IN REGARDS TO OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT THE HIGH
RES MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO TRIGGER ACTIVITY ALONG AN
AUGUSTA TO COLUMBIA TO SUMTER LINE SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME...THEN
RAPIDLY PUSHING ALL THE ACTIVITY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST WHERE
IT MAY BE ABLE TO INTENSIFY EVEN MORE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
DUE TO STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODELS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MAIN
ISSUES WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REVOLVE AROUND STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH A HAIL THREAT. THE LATEST SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK STILL SHOWS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE RAINFALL. FOR NOW WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND WHICH GIVES HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA AND OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY IN THE EVENING
AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
PRIOR NIGHTS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SET UP OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL
LEAD TO A MORE REFRESHING PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 65 TO 70
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WE ENTER INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...ALONG WITH ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN AS WE ENTER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STAY UP.

STRONG CONVECTION MOVING OVER WESTERN NC AND MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND
MOVE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN GA THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE
MODELS INDICATE THIS CONVECTION DIMINISHING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
CONVECTION THIS MORNING IN TAFS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF CAE/CUB...AND MAY BE JUST
EAST OF DNL/AGS. HAVE INDICATED VCTS FOR OGB 21Z-24Z GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND COVERAGE.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF THE TAF
SITES BY 29/00Z WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KCAE 280553
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
153 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING UPSTREAM CONVECTION
MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN TN AND WESTERN NC...PREPARING TO
MOVE INTO THE UPSTATE OF SC. CONVECTION DOES LOOK QUITE IMPRESSIVE
ON THE REGIONAL RADAR...BUT THE LATEST HRRR MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LINE TO DIMINISH AND FALL APART BY 09Z-
10Z...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA AT
THAT TIME BEFORE DIMINISHING EVEN MORE. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THAT SOLUTION SINCE IT SEEMS TO BE ONE OF THE FEW MODELS RIGHT NOW
THAT HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION AREA.

TODAY...MAY STILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES TO START OFF THE DAY. THEN A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE CWA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. QUESTION
REMAINS IN REGARDS TO OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT THE HIGH
RES MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO TRIGGER ACTIVITY ALONG AN
AUGUSTA TO COLUMBIA TO SUMTER LINE SHORTLY AFTER NOONTIME...THEN
RAPIDLY PUSHING ALL THE ACTIVITY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST WHERE
IT MAY BE ABLE TO INTENSIFY EVEN MORE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
DUE TO STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODELS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MAIN
ISSUES WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REVOLVE AROUND STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH A HAIL THREAT. THE LATEST SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK STILL SHOWS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE RAINFALL. FOR NOW WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND WHICH GIVES HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA AND OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY IN THE EVENING
AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
PRIOR NIGHTS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SET UP OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL
LEAD TO A MORE REFRESHING PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 65 TO 70
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WE ENTER INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...ALONG WITH ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN AS WE ENTER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STAY UP.

STRONG CONVECTION MOVING OVER WESTERN NC AND MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND
MOVE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN GA THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE
MODELS INDICATE THIS CONVECTION DIMINISHING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
CONVECTION THIS MORNING IN TAFS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF CAE/CUB...AND MAY BE JUST
EAST OF DNL/AGS. HAVE INDICATED VCTS FOR OGB 21Z-24Z GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND COVERAGE.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF THE TAF
SITES BY 29/00Z WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KFFC 280533
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
133 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
REALLY HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST GRIDS THIS EVENING. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING OF
CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TN RIGHT NOW AS THE ACTIVITY
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS FROM EASTERN TN INTO
WESTERN NC SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALL INDICATION
ARE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES NORTH GA
SOMETIME IN THE 02-04AM TIME FRAME...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY
THROUGH THE EVENING FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT HOLDING ON INTO THE STATE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD RIGHT NOW SO NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWFA BY SUNRISE
MONDAY.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PRODUCING CONVECTION ALONG THE
TN/GA BORDER OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS ANY LEFT OVER
CONVECTION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS TN. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN GA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. THE
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY GET AWAY FROM THE BEST MID LEVEL
FORCING AND DYNAMICS.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION. IF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PRODUCES ENOUGH
BLOW OFF TO LIMIT HEATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWFA...THUNDERSTORM SEVERITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...IF GOOD HEATING IS REALIZED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THE DRY AIR IN BEHIND
THE FRONT RATHER QUICKLY. SO...RAPID CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECTED DRY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT...SOME LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WITH BE THREATENED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY AT CSG THURSDAY MORNING. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WITH BE
WITHIN 3-5 DEGREES OF THE RECORD LOWS FOR THAT DAY. LEANED HARD ON
WPC HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER LEVEL
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL
KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA
DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW 80S
ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY THU/FRI WITH
NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z TODAY AROUND THE ATLANTA TAF SITES AS CONVECTION
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WILL SHOW
PREVAILING LOW VFR CIGS WITH A TEMPO 11-15Z -TSRA AND MVFR CIGS WITH
THE CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS ATLANTA TAF SITES
BETWEEN 15-18Z TODAY... WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW AND GRADUAL CLEARING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN WSW AROUND 10KTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT... THEN SHIFT NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT. NW WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 10KTS BY 01-03Z
TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING TIMING OF CONVECTION...HIGH FOR ALL OTHER
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  91  65  86 /  20  30  10   0
ATLANTA         77  88  66  84 /  30  30  10   0
BLAIRSVILLE     68  79  58  78 /  40  30  10  10
CARTERSVILLE    74  87  63  84 /  30  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        77  92  68  88 /  20  60  20   0
GAINESVILLE     74  87  64  83 /  30  30  10   0
MACON           77  94  68  89 /  10  60  20   0
ROME            74  87  63  84 /  30  30   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  75  89  63  85 /  20  40  10   0
VIDALIA         78  95  72  91 /  10  60  60   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20/39
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...39









000
FXUS62 KCHS 280217
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1017 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS FLAT UPPER RIDGING
EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE REGION FROM A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION/SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THIS WILL
AMPLIFY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES LATER TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...WHILE ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.

HIGHER RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODES INDICATE THAT THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION CROSSING INTO THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE
00Z KCHS SOUNDING AND THE SOLID WEST/NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER FLOW IN
PLACE. AS A RESULT WILL MAINTAIN A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...BUT WILL
SHOW A NON-ZERO PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.
CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

A VERY MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP...ESPECIALLY NOW WITH SO MUCH IN THE
WAY OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. THE FORECAST SHOWS TEMPERATURES
ONLY FALLING TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH LOWER 80S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH
MINIMUMS FOR JULY 28TH. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL AHEAD
OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. STRONG SFC HEATING UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
ADDITIONAL TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS YEAR...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES WHILE
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER A MODERATELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
THIS AMOUNT OF HEATING ALONG WITH SFC DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID
70S UNDER THE CAP SUPPORTS HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL THEREFORE BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BETWEEN 11 AM TO 7 PM. ONCE WE GET INTO MID
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST
WILL SWITCH OVER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AS WE HEAD INTO MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP BREAKS
OVER THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
NEAR -10 C...FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS HAIL
CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY MONDAY
EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED INITIALLY...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS APPARENT AS A LARGE MID LVL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A H25
JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE DIGGING
TROUGH WILL FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SUNSET...THEN INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...THE LARGEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE RISK LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES
ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE
FROPA OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS
BY TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST. BY WEDNESDAY...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUPPORT WINDS
UPWARDS OF 30-35 KT AT 2 KFT BY 06Z. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS APPEAR
TO FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA FOR INCLUDING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IN THE FORECAST SINCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL NOT DECOUPLE.
THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE
FORM OF HIGHER GUSTS UPWARDS OF 18-23 KT WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...GENERALLY AFTER 14Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...AND HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH
TERMINALS AFTER 21Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS...WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY...HOWEVER EXPECT ONLY A PORTION OF THESE WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE
THUS INDICATED SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
ZONES...CONFIDENCE IN THE FREQUENCY OF THESE WINDS IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS OVER THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/DPB
MARINE...WMS/DPB
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 280217
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1017 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS FLAT UPPER RIDGING
EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE REGION FROM A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION/SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THIS WILL
AMPLIFY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES LATER TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...WHILE ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.

HIGHER RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODES INDICATE THAT THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION CROSSING INTO THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE
00Z KCHS SOUNDING AND THE SOLID WEST/NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER FLOW IN
PLACE. AS A RESULT WILL MAINTAIN A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...BUT WILL
SHOW A NON-ZERO PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.
CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

A VERY MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP...ESPECIALLY NOW WITH SO MUCH IN THE
WAY OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. THE FORECAST SHOWS TEMPERATURES
ONLY FALLING TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH LOWER 80S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH
MINIMUMS FOR JULY 28TH. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL AHEAD
OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. STRONG SFC HEATING UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
ADDITIONAL TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS YEAR...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES WHILE
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER A MODERATELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
THIS AMOUNT OF HEATING ALONG WITH SFC DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID
70S UNDER THE CAP SUPPORTS HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL THEREFORE BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BETWEEN 11 AM TO 7 PM. ONCE WE GET INTO MID
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST
WILL SWITCH OVER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AS WE HEAD INTO MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP BREAKS
OVER THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
NEAR -10 C...FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS HAIL
CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY MONDAY
EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED INITIALLY...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS APPARENT AS A LARGE MID LVL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A H25
JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE DIGGING
TROUGH WILL FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SUNSET...THEN INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...THE LARGEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE RISK LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES
ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE
FROPA OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS
BY TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST. BY WEDNESDAY...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUPPORT WINDS
UPWARDS OF 30-35 KT AT 2 KFT BY 06Z. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS APPEAR
TO FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA FOR INCLUDING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IN THE FORECAST SINCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL NOT DECOUPLE.
THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE
FORM OF HIGHER GUSTS UPWARDS OF 18-23 KT WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...GENERALLY AFTER 14Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...AND HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH
TERMINALS AFTER 21Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS...WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY...HOWEVER EXPECT ONLY A PORTION OF THESE WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE
THUS INDICATED SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
ZONES...CONFIDENCE IN THE FREQUENCY OF THESE WINDS IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS OVER THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/DPB
MARINE...WMS/DPB
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 280217
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1017 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS FLAT UPPER RIDGING
EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE REGION FROM A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION/SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THIS WILL
AMPLIFY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES LATER TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...WHILE ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.

HIGHER RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODES INDICATE THAT THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION CROSSING INTO THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE
00Z KCHS SOUNDING AND THE SOLID WEST/NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER FLOW IN
PLACE. AS A RESULT WILL MAINTAIN A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...BUT WILL
SHOW A NON-ZERO PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.
CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

A VERY MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP...ESPECIALLY NOW WITH SO MUCH IN THE
WAY OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. THE FORECAST SHOWS TEMPERATURES
ONLY FALLING TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH LOWER 80S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH
MINIMUMS FOR JULY 28TH. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL AHEAD
OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. STRONG SFC HEATING UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
ADDITIONAL TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS YEAR...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES WHILE
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER A MODERATELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
THIS AMOUNT OF HEATING ALONG WITH SFC DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID
70S UNDER THE CAP SUPPORTS HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL THEREFORE BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BETWEEN 11 AM TO 7 PM. ONCE WE GET INTO MID
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST
WILL SWITCH OVER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AS WE HEAD INTO MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP BREAKS
OVER THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
NEAR -10 C...FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS HAIL
CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY MONDAY
EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED INITIALLY...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS APPARENT AS A LARGE MID LVL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A H25
JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE DIGGING
TROUGH WILL FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SUNSET...THEN INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...THE LARGEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE RISK LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES
ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE
FROPA OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS
BY TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST. BY WEDNESDAY...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUPPORT WINDS
UPWARDS OF 30-35 KT AT 2 KFT BY 06Z. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS APPEAR
TO FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA FOR INCLUDING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IN THE FORECAST SINCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL NOT DECOUPLE.
THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE
FORM OF HIGHER GUSTS UPWARDS OF 18-23 KT WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...GENERALLY AFTER 14Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...AND HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH
TERMINALS AFTER 21Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS...WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY...HOWEVER EXPECT ONLY A PORTION OF THESE WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE
THUS INDICATED SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
ZONES...CONFIDENCE IN THE FREQUENCY OF THESE WINDS IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS OVER THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/DPB
MARINE...WMS/DPB
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 280217
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1017 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS FLAT UPPER RIDGING
EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE REGION FROM A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION/SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THIS WILL
AMPLIFY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES LATER TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...WHILE ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.

HIGHER RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODES INDICATE THAT THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION CROSSING INTO THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE
00Z KCHS SOUNDING AND THE SOLID WEST/NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER FLOW IN
PLACE. AS A RESULT WILL MAINTAIN A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...BUT WILL
SHOW A NON-ZERO PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.
CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

A VERY MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP...ESPECIALLY NOW WITH SO MUCH IN THE
WAY OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. THE FORECAST SHOWS TEMPERATURES
ONLY FALLING TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH LOWER 80S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH
MINIMUMS FOR JULY 28TH. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL AHEAD
OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. STRONG SFC HEATING UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
ADDITIONAL TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS YEAR...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES WHILE
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER A MODERATELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
THIS AMOUNT OF HEATING ALONG WITH SFC DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID
70S UNDER THE CAP SUPPORTS HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL THEREFORE BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BETWEEN 11 AM TO 7 PM. ONCE WE GET INTO MID
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST
WILL SWITCH OVER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AS WE HEAD INTO MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP BREAKS
OVER THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
NEAR -10 C...FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS HAIL
CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY MONDAY
EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED INITIALLY...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS APPARENT AS A LARGE MID LVL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A H25
JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE DIGGING
TROUGH WILL FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SUNSET...THEN INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...THE LARGEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE RISK LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES
ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE
FROPA OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS
BY TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST. BY WEDNESDAY...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUPPORT WINDS
UPWARDS OF 30-35 KT AT 2 KFT BY 06Z. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS APPEAR
TO FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA FOR INCLUDING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IN THE FORECAST SINCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL NOT DECOUPLE.
THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE
FORM OF HIGHER GUSTS UPWARDS OF 18-23 KT WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...GENERALLY AFTER 14Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...AND HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH
TERMINALS AFTER 21Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS...WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY...HOWEVER EXPECT ONLY A PORTION OF THESE WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE
THUS INDICATED SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
ZONES...CONFIDENCE IN THE FREQUENCY OF THESE WINDS IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS OVER THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/DPB
MARINE...WMS/DPB
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 280215 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1015 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
LATE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MTNS AND FOOTHILLS
CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER AND CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE I-85
CORRIDOR HEADING TOWARDS LANCASTER AND FAIRFIELD COUNTIES. DESPITE
HI-RES MODELS AND LATEST RUNS OF NAM/GFS INDICATING THIS
CONVECTION WILL NOT REACH THE FORECAST AREA...DO NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE WITHOUT POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN MIDLANDS SO HAVE
INCLUDED A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LIKELY POPS WITH A STRONG GRADIENT
TO BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THINK THE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO OUR AREA DESPITE LINGERING INSTABILITY WITH CONTINUED
LOSS OF HEATING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A FORECAST 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR COLUMBIA ON JULY 28 IS 78 COULD BE IN JEOPARDY OF
FALLING...THAT IS IF THE TEMPERATURE MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
DOES NOT FALL BELOW 78 DEGREES BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL AMPLIFY
DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...PROBABLY IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING,. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE DUE TO STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WITH WEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT 850MB...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK. UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY PATTERN
APPEARS CHANNELED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA IN THE AFTERNOON AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ALSO STRONGER TO THE NORTH. 850MB SPEED MAX NEAR THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THINK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT...INVERTED V SOUNDING. SPC
HAS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS/CSRA IN SLIGHT RISK. RAIN CHANCES
RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

EXPECT COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT...WHICH AS A RESULT OF DOWNSLOPE WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
90S. BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD
10 DEGREES COOLER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SURFACE
TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE IN TO KEEP MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WEAK WEDGE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY. CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH AS SHORT WAVES DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. SOME STRONG CONVECTION MOVING OVER WESTERN NC AND MAY
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. AT THIS TIME DO NOT THINK CONVECTION WILL AFFECT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT...SO NO FOG ISSUES EXPECTED. SOME CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 20Z MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS
TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
TUE/WED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE COULD TIE OR BREAK A RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT
COLUMBIA. THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT FOR COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES. RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JUL 28TH AT COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES LAST SET IN 1936.

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 28TH IS
82...ALSO SET IN 1936.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 280215 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1015 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
LATE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MTNS AND FOOTHILLS
CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER AND CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE I-85
CORRIDOR HEADING TOWARDS LANCASTER AND FAIRFIELD COUNTIES. DESPITE
HI-RES MODELS AND LATEST RUNS OF NAM/GFS INDICATING THIS
CONVECTION WILL NOT REACH THE FORECAST AREA...DO NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE WITHOUT POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN MIDLANDS SO HAVE
INCLUDED A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LIKELY POPS WITH A STRONG GRADIENT
TO BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THINK THE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO OUR AREA DESPITE LINGERING INSTABILITY WITH CONTINUED
LOSS OF HEATING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A FORECAST 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR COLUMBIA ON JULY 28 IS 78 COULD BE IN JEOPARDY OF
FALLING...THAT IS IF THE TEMPERATURE MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
DOES NOT FALL BELOW 78 DEGREES BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL AMPLIFY
DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...PROBABLY IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING,. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE DUE TO STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WITH WEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT 850MB...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK. UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY PATTERN
APPEARS CHANNELED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA IN THE AFTERNOON AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ALSO STRONGER TO THE NORTH. 850MB SPEED MAX NEAR THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THINK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT...INVERTED V SOUNDING. SPC
HAS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS/CSRA IN SLIGHT RISK. RAIN CHANCES
RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

EXPECT COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT...WHICH AS A RESULT OF DOWNSLOPE WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
90S. BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD
10 DEGREES COOLER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SURFACE
TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE IN TO KEEP MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WEAK WEDGE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY. CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH AS SHORT WAVES DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. SOME STRONG CONVECTION MOVING OVER WESTERN NC AND MAY
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. AT THIS TIME DO NOT THINK CONVECTION WILL AFFECT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT...SO NO FOG ISSUES EXPECTED. SOME CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 20Z MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS
TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
TUE/WED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE COULD TIE OR BREAK A RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT
COLUMBIA. THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT FOR COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES. RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JUL 28TH AT COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES LAST SET IN 1936.

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 28TH IS
82...ALSO SET IN 1936.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 280150
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
950 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
REALLY HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST GRIDS THIS EVENING. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING OF
CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TN RIGHT NOW AS THE ACTIVITY
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS FROM EASTERN TN INTO
WESTERN NC SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALL INDICATION
ARE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES NORTH GA
SOMETIME IN THE 02-04AM TIME FRAME...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY
THROUGH THE EVENING FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT HOLDING ON INTO THE STATE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD RIGHT NOW SO NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWFA BY SUNRISE
MONDAY.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PRODUCING CONVECTION ALONG THE
TN/GA BORDER OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS ANY LEFT OVER
CONVECTION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS TN. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN GA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. THE
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY GET AWAY FROM THE BEST MID LEVEL
FORCING AND DYNAMICS.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION. IF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PRODUCES ENOUGH
BLOW OFF TO LIMIT HEATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWFA...THUNDERSTORM SEVERITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...IF GOOD HEATING IS REALIZED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THE DRY AIR IN BEHIND
THE FRONT RATHER QUICKLY. SO...RAPID CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECTED DRY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT...SOME LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WITH BE THREATENED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY AT CSG THURSDAY MORNING. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WITH BE
WITHIN 3-5 DEGREES OF THE RECORD LOWS FOR THAT DAY. LEANED HARD ON
WPC HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER LEVEL
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL
KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA
DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW 80S
ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY THU/FRI WITH
NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR...WITH SOME ISOLATED
LOWER...VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 04Z AND 14Z...BUT ONLY TAF
SITE WHERE WE ARE CARRYING ANY RESTRICTIONS IS KAHN. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME CEILINGS IN THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE BY 08Z ACROSS THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10KT THROUGH
08Z...INCREASING TO 8-12KT BY 12-14Z WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS BY 17Z.
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 06Z WILL SLOWLY SINK
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAIRLY SCATTERED BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO WIDESPREAD BY
18-24Z ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...HIGH OTHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  91  65  86 /  20  30  10   0
ATLANTA         77  88  66  84 /  30  30  10   0
BLAIRSVILLE     68  79  58  78 /  40  30  10  10
CARTERSVILLE    74  87  63  84 /  30  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        77  92  68  88 /  20  60  20   0
GAINESVILLE     74  87  64  83 /  30  30  10   0
MACON           77  94  68  89 /  10  60  20   0
ROME            74  87  63  84 /  30  30   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  75  89  63  85 /  20  40  10   0
VIDALIA         78  95  72  91 /  10  60  60   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS62 KFFC 280150
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
950 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
REALLY HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST GRIDS THIS EVENING. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING OF
CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TN RIGHT NOW AS THE ACTIVITY
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS FROM EASTERN TN INTO
WESTERN NC SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALL INDICATION
ARE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES NORTH GA
SOMETIME IN THE 02-04AM TIME FRAME...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY
THROUGH THE EVENING FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT HOLDING ON INTO THE STATE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD RIGHT NOW SO NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWFA BY SUNRISE
MONDAY.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PRODUCING CONVECTION ALONG THE
TN/GA BORDER OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS ANY LEFT OVER
CONVECTION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS TN. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN GA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. THE
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY GET AWAY FROM THE BEST MID LEVEL
FORCING AND DYNAMICS.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION. IF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PRODUCES ENOUGH
BLOW OFF TO LIMIT HEATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWFA...THUNDERSTORM SEVERITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...IF GOOD HEATING IS REALIZED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THE DRY AIR IN BEHIND
THE FRONT RATHER QUICKLY. SO...RAPID CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECTED DRY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT...SOME LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WITH BE THREATENED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY AT CSG THURSDAY MORNING. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WITH BE
WITHIN 3-5 DEGREES OF THE RECORD LOWS FOR THAT DAY. LEANED HARD ON
WPC HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER LEVEL
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL
KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA
DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW 80S
ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY THU/FRI WITH
NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR...WITH SOME ISOLATED
LOWER...VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 04Z AND 14Z...BUT ONLY TAF
SITE WHERE WE ARE CARRYING ANY RESTRICTIONS IS KAHN. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME CEILINGS IN THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE BY 08Z ACROSS THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10KT THROUGH
08Z...INCREASING TO 8-12KT BY 12-14Z WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS BY 17Z.
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 06Z WILL SLOWLY SINK
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAIRLY SCATTERED BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO WIDESPREAD BY
18-24Z ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...HIGH OTHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  91  65  86 /  20  30  10   0
ATLANTA         77  88  66  84 /  30  30  10   0
BLAIRSVILLE     68  79  58  78 /  40  30  10  10
CARTERSVILLE    74  87  63  84 /  30  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        77  92  68  88 /  20  60  20   0
GAINESVILLE     74  87  64  83 /  30  30  10   0
MACON           77  94  68  89 /  10  60  20   0
ROME            74  87  63  84 /  30  30   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  75  89  63  85 /  20  40  10   0
VIDALIA         78  95  72  91 /  10  60  60   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS62 KFFC 280150
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
950 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
REALLY HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST GRIDS THIS EVENING. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING OF
CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TN RIGHT NOW AS THE ACTIVITY
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS FROM EASTERN TN INTO
WESTERN NC SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALL INDICATION
ARE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES NORTH GA
SOMETIME IN THE 02-04AM TIME FRAME...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY
THROUGH THE EVENING FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT HOLDING ON INTO THE STATE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD RIGHT NOW SO NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWFA BY SUNRISE
MONDAY.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PRODUCING CONVECTION ALONG THE
TN/GA BORDER OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS ANY LEFT OVER
CONVECTION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS TN. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN GA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. THE
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY GET AWAY FROM THE BEST MID LEVEL
FORCING AND DYNAMICS.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION. IF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PRODUCES ENOUGH
BLOW OFF TO LIMIT HEATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWFA...THUNDERSTORM SEVERITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...IF GOOD HEATING IS REALIZED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THE DRY AIR IN BEHIND
THE FRONT RATHER QUICKLY. SO...RAPID CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECTED DRY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT...SOME LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WITH BE THREATENED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY AT CSG THURSDAY MORNING. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WITH BE
WITHIN 3-5 DEGREES OF THE RECORD LOWS FOR THAT DAY. LEANED HARD ON
WPC HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER LEVEL
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL
KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA
DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW 80S
ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY THU/FRI WITH
NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR...WITH SOME ISOLATED
LOWER...VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 04Z AND 14Z...BUT ONLY TAF
SITE WHERE WE ARE CARRYING ANY RESTRICTIONS IS KAHN. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME CEILINGS IN THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE BY 08Z ACROSS THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10KT THROUGH
08Z...INCREASING TO 8-12KT BY 12-14Z WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS BY 17Z.
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 06Z WILL SLOWLY SINK
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAIRLY SCATTERED BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO WIDESPREAD BY
18-24Z ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...HIGH OTHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  91  65  86 /  20  30  10   0
ATLANTA         77  88  66  84 /  30  30  10   0
BLAIRSVILLE     68  79  58  78 /  40  30  10  10
CARTERSVILLE    74  87  63  84 /  30  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        77  92  68  88 /  20  60  20   0
GAINESVILLE     74  87  64  83 /  30  30  10   0
MACON           77  94  68  89 /  10  60  20   0
ROME            74  87  63  84 /  30  30   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  75  89  63  85 /  20  40  10   0
VIDALIA         78  95  72  91 /  10  60  60   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS62 KFFC 280150
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
950 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
REALLY HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST GRIDS THIS EVENING. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING OF
CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TN RIGHT NOW AS THE ACTIVITY
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS FROM EASTERN TN INTO
WESTERN NC SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALL INDICATION
ARE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES NORTH GA
SOMETIME IN THE 02-04AM TIME FRAME...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY
THROUGH THE EVENING FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT HOLDING ON INTO THE STATE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD RIGHT NOW SO NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWFA BY SUNRISE
MONDAY.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PRODUCING CONVECTION ALONG THE
TN/GA BORDER OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS ANY LEFT OVER
CONVECTION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS TN. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN GA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. THE
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY GET AWAY FROM THE BEST MID LEVEL
FORCING AND DYNAMICS.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION. IF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PRODUCES ENOUGH
BLOW OFF TO LIMIT HEATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWFA...THUNDERSTORM SEVERITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...IF GOOD HEATING IS REALIZED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THE DRY AIR IN BEHIND
THE FRONT RATHER QUICKLY. SO...RAPID CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECTED DRY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT...SOME LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WITH BE THREATENED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY AT CSG THURSDAY MORNING. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WITH BE
WITHIN 3-5 DEGREES OF THE RECORD LOWS FOR THAT DAY. LEANED HARD ON
WPC HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER LEVEL
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL
KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA
DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW 80S
ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY THU/FRI WITH
NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR...WITH SOME ISOLATED
LOWER...VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 04Z AND 14Z...BUT ONLY TAF
SITE WHERE WE ARE CARRYING ANY RESTRICTIONS IS KAHN. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME CEILINGS IN THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE BY 08Z ACROSS THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10KT THROUGH
08Z...INCREASING TO 8-12KT BY 12-14Z WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS BY 17Z.
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 06Z WILL SLOWLY SINK
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAIRLY SCATTERED BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO WIDESPREAD BY
18-24Z ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...HIGH OTHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  91  65  86 /  20  30  10   0
ATLANTA         77  88  66  84 /  30  30  10   0
BLAIRSVILLE     68  79  58  78 /  40  30  10  10
CARTERSVILLE    74  87  63  84 /  30  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        77  92  68  88 /  20  60  20   0
GAINESVILLE     74  87  64  83 /  30  30  10   0
MACON           77  94  68  89 /  10  60  20   0
ROME            74  87  63  84 /  30  30   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  75  89  63  85 /  20  40  10   0
VIDALIA         78  95  72  91 /  10  60  60   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS62 KCHS 280018
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
818 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS FLAT UPPER RIDGING
EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE REGION FROM A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION/SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THIS WILL
AMPLIFY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES LATER TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...WHILE ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.

HIGHER RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODES INDICATE THAT THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE
REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...GIVEN THE SOLID
WEST/NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER FLOW IN PLACE...WILL MAINTAIN A RAIN-
FREE FORECAST. HOWEVER DO EXPECT HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM
THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S INLAND TO THE
LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR JULY 28TH. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL AHEAD
OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. STRONG SFC HEATING UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
ADDITIONAL TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS YEAR...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES WHILE
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER A MODERATELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
THIS AMOUNT OF HEATING ALONG WITH SFC DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID
70S UNDER THE CAP SUPPORTS HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL THEREFORE BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BETWEEN 11 AM TO 7 PM. ONCE WE GET INTO MID
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST
WILL SWITCH OVER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AS WE HEAD INTO MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP BREAKS
OVER THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
NEAR -10 C...FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS HAIL
CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY MONDAY
EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED INITIALLY...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS APPARENT AS A LARGE MID LVL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A H25
JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE DIGGING
TROUGH WILL FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SUNSET...THEN INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...THE LARGEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE RISK LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES
ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE
FROPA OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS
BY TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST. BY WEDNESDAY...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUPPORT WINDS
UPWARDS OF 30-35 KT AT 2 KFT BY 06Z. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS APPEAR
TO FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA FOR INCLUDING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IN THE FORECAST SINCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL NOT DECOUPLE.
THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE
FORM OF HIGHER GUSTS UPWARDS OF 18-23 KT WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...GENERALLY AFTER 14Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...AND HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH
TERMINALS AFTER 21Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS...WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY...HOWEVER EXPECT ONLY A PORTION OF THESE WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE
THUS INDICATED SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
ZONES...CONFIDENCE IN THE FREQUENCY OF THESE WINDS IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS OVER THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/DPB
MARINE...WMS/DPB
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 280018
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
818 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS FLAT UPPER RIDGING
EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE REGION FROM A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION/SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THIS WILL
AMPLIFY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES LATER TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...WHILE ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.

HIGHER RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODES INDICATE THAT THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE
REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...GIVEN THE SOLID
WEST/NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER FLOW IN PLACE...WILL MAINTAIN A RAIN-
FREE FORECAST. HOWEVER DO EXPECT HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM
THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S INLAND TO THE
LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR JULY 28TH. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL AHEAD
OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. STRONG SFC HEATING UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
ADDITIONAL TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS YEAR...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES WHILE
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER A MODERATELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
THIS AMOUNT OF HEATING ALONG WITH SFC DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID
70S UNDER THE CAP SUPPORTS HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL THEREFORE BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BETWEEN 11 AM TO 7 PM. ONCE WE GET INTO MID
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST
WILL SWITCH OVER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AS WE HEAD INTO MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP BREAKS
OVER THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
NEAR -10 C...FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS HAIL
CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY MONDAY
EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED INITIALLY...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS APPARENT AS A LARGE MID LVL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A H25
JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE DIGGING
TROUGH WILL FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SUNSET...THEN INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...THE LARGEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE RISK LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES
ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE
FROPA OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS
BY TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST. BY WEDNESDAY...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUPPORT WINDS
UPWARDS OF 30-35 KT AT 2 KFT BY 06Z. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS APPEAR
TO FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA FOR INCLUDING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IN THE FORECAST SINCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL NOT DECOUPLE.
THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE
FORM OF HIGHER GUSTS UPWARDS OF 18-23 KT WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...GENERALLY AFTER 14Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...AND HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH
TERMINALS AFTER 21Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS...WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY...HOWEVER EXPECT ONLY A PORTION OF THESE WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE
THUS INDICATED SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
ZONES...CONFIDENCE IN THE FREQUENCY OF THESE WINDS IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS OVER THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/DPB
MARINE...WMS/DPB
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KFFC 272341 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWFA BY SUNRISE
MONDAY.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PRODUCING CONVECTION ALONG THE
TN/GA BORDER OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS ANY LEFT OVER
CONVECTION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS TN. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN GA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. THE
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY GET AWAY FROM THE BEST MID LEVEL
FORCING AND DYNAMICS.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION. IF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PRODUCES ENOUGH
BLOW OFF TO LIMIT HEATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWFA...THUNDERSTORM SEVERITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...IF GOOD HEATING IS REALIZED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THE DRY AIR IN BEHIND
THE FRONT RATHER QUICKLY. SO...RAPID CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECTED DRY.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT...SOME LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WITH BE THREATENED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY AT CSG THURSDAY MORNING. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WITH BE
WITHIN 3-5 DEGREES OF THE RECORD LOWS FOR THAT DAY. LEANED HARD ON
WPC HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER LEVEL
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL
KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA
DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW 80S
ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY THU/FRI WITH
NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.

01

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952



RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958



RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR...WITH SOME ISOLATED
LOWER...VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 04Z AND 14Z...BUT ONLY TAF
SITE WHERE WE ARE CARRYING ANY RESTRICTIONS IS KAHN. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME CEILINGS IN THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE BY 08Z ACROSS THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10KT THROUGH
08Z...INCREASING TO 8-12KT BY 12-14Z WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS BY 17Z.
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 06Z WILL SLOWLY SINK
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAIRLY SCATTERED BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO WIDESPREAD BY
18-24Z ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...HIGH OTHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  91  65  86 /  20  30  10   0
ATLANTA         77  88  66  84 /  20  30  10   0
BLAIRSVILLE     68  79  58  78 /  40  30   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    74  87  63  84 /  30  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        77  92  68  88 /  10  60  20   0
GAINESVILLE     74  87  64  83 /  30  30  10   0
MACON           77  94  68  89 /  10  60  40   0
ROME            74  87  63  84 /  30  20   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  75  89  63  85 /  20  30  10   0
VIDALIA         78  95  72  91 /  10  60  60   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA









000
FXUS62 KFFC 272341 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWFA BY SUNRISE
MONDAY.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PRODUCING CONVECTION ALONG THE
TN/GA BORDER OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS ANY LEFT OVER
CONVECTION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS TN. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN GA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. THE
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY GET AWAY FROM THE BEST MID LEVEL
FORCING AND DYNAMICS.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION. IF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PRODUCES ENOUGH
BLOW OFF TO LIMIT HEATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWFA...THUNDERSTORM SEVERITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...IF GOOD HEATING IS REALIZED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THE DRY AIR IN BEHIND
THE FRONT RATHER QUICKLY. SO...RAPID CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECTED DRY.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT...SOME LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WITH BE THREATENED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY AT CSG THURSDAY MORNING. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WITH BE
WITHIN 3-5 DEGREES OF THE RECORD LOWS FOR THAT DAY. LEANED HARD ON
WPC HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER LEVEL
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL
KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA
DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW 80S
ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY THU/FRI WITH
NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.

01

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952



RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958



RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR...WITH SOME ISOLATED
LOWER...VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 04Z AND 14Z...BUT ONLY TAF
SITE WHERE WE ARE CARRYING ANY RESTRICTIONS IS KAHN. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME CEILINGS IN THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE BY 08Z ACROSS THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10KT THROUGH
08Z...INCREASING TO 8-12KT BY 12-14Z WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS BY 17Z.
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 06Z WILL SLOWLY SINK
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAIRLY SCATTERED BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO WIDESPREAD BY
18-24Z ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONCERNING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...HIGH OTHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  91  65  86 /  20  30  10   0
ATLANTA         77  88  66  84 /  20  30  10   0
BLAIRSVILLE     68  79  58  78 /  40  30   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    74  87  63  84 /  30  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        77  92  68  88 /  10  60  20   0
GAINESVILLE     74  87  64  83 /  30  30  10   0
MACON           77  94  68  89 /  10  60  40   0
ROME            74  87  63  84 /  30  20   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  75  89  63  85 /  20  30  10   0
VIDALIA         78  95  72  91 /  10  60  60   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA








000
FXUS62 KCAE 272339
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
739 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
LATE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
IT WAS A VERY WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MIDLANDS TODAY
WITH COLUMBIA METRO REACHING 100 DEGREES AND MOST OTHER LOCATIONS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5-1.7 INCHES AND WEAK DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW PREVENTED ANY CONVECTION IN OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS
OCCURRED OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ARE ONGOING INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA LATER
THIS EVENING BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ITS PROGRESS AND ADD
SOME POPS TO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS IF NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT WITH
INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A FORECAST 35 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THE RECORD
HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR COLUMBIA ON JULY 28 IS 78 COULD BE IN
JEOPARDY OF FALLING...THAT IS IF THE TEMPERATURE MONDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT DOES NOT FALL BELOW 78 DEGREES BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL AMPLIFY
DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...PROBABLY IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING,. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE DUE TO STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WITH WEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT 850MB...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK. UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY PATTERN
APPEARS CHANNELED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA IN THE AFTERNOON AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ALSO STRONGER TO THE NORTH. 850MB SPEED MAX NEAR THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THINK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT...INVERTED V SOUNDING. SPC
HAS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS/CSRA IN SLIGHT RISK. RAIN CHANCES
RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

EXPECT COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT...WHICH AS A RESULT OF DOWNSLOPE WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
90S. BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD
10 DEGREES COOLER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SURFACE
TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE IN TO KEEP MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WEAK WEDGE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY. CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH AS SHORT WAVES DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. SOME STRONG CONVECTION MOVING OVER THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME DO NOT THINK CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
ANY OF THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UP TONIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT...SO NO FOG ISSUES EXPECTED. SOME
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AFTER 20Z MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES
AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
TUE/WED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE COULD TIE OR BREAK A RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT
COLUMBIA. THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT FOR COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES. RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JUL 28TH AT COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES LAST SET IN 1936.

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 28TH IS
82...ALSO SET IN 1936.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...BC




000
FXUS62 KCAE 272339
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
739 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
LATE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
IT WAS A VERY WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MIDLANDS TODAY
WITH COLUMBIA METRO REACHING 100 DEGREES AND MOST OTHER LOCATIONS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5-1.7 INCHES AND WEAK DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW PREVENTED ANY CONVECTION IN OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS
OCCURRED OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ARE ONGOING INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA LATER
THIS EVENING BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ITS PROGRESS AND ADD
SOME POPS TO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS IF NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT WITH
INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A FORECAST 35 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THE RECORD
HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR COLUMBIA ON JULY 28 IS 78 COULD BE IN
JEOPARDY OF FALLING...THAT IS IF THE TEMPERATURE MONDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT DOES NOT FALL BELOW 78 DEGREES BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL AMPLIFY
DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...PROBABLY IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING,. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE DUE TO STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WITH WEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT 850MB...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK. UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY PATTERN
APPEARS CHANNELED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA IN THE AFTERNOON AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ALSO STRONGER TO THE NORTH. 850MB SPEED MAX NEAR THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THINK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT...INVERTED V SOUNDING. SPC
HAS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS/CSRA IN SLIGHT RISK. RAIN CHANCES
RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

EXPECT COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT...WHICH AS A RESULT OF DOWNSLOPE WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
90S. BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD
10 DEGREES COOLER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SURFACE
TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE IN TO KEEP MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WEAK WEDGE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY. CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH AS SHORT WAVES DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. SOME STRONG CONVECTION MOVING OVER THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME DO NOT THINK CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
ANY OF THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UP TONIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT...SO NO FOG ISSUES EXPECTED. SOME
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AFTER 20Z MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES
AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
TUE/WED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE COULD TIE OR BREAK A RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT
COLUMBIA. THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT FOR COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES. RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JUL 28TH AT COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES LAST SET IN 1936.

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 28TH IS
82...ALSO SET IN 1936.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...BC





000
FXUS62 KCHS 272043
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
443 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A FLAT UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A ROBUST LOW SYSTEM
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/NEW ENGLAND REGIONS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE INLAND TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE EAST COAST
AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT FAR UPSTREAM.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOLID WESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW PERSISTING
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD...MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE THUS INDICATED RAIN CHANCES AT ZERO
PERCENT AND ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO THE
NORTH. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE AFTER SUNSET...YET TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 70S INLAND TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR JULY 28TH. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL AHEAD
OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. STRONG SFC HEATING UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
ADDITIONAL TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS YEAR...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES WHILE
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER A MODERATELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
THIS AMOUNT OF HEATING ALONG WITH SFC DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID
70S UNDER THE CAP SUPPORTS HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL THEREFORE BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BETWEEN 11 AM TO 7 PM. ONCE WE GET INTO MID
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST
WILL SWITCH OVER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AS WE HEAD INTO MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP BREAKS
OVER THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
NEAR -10 C...FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS HAIL
CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY MONDAY
EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED INITIALLY...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS APPARENT AS A LARGE MID LVL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A H25
JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE DIGGING
TROUGH WILL FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SUNSET...THEN INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...THE LARGEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE RISK LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES
ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE
FROPA OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS
BY TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST. BY WEDNESDAY...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUPPORT 25 TO 30 KT WINDS AT 2 KFT BY
06Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT
DECOUPLE TONIGHT...WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA
FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS...WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY...HOWEVER EXPECT ONLY A PORTION OF THESE WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE
THUS INDICATED SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
ZONES...CONFIDENCE IN THE FREQUENCY OF THESE WINDS IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS OVER THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 272043
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
443 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A FLAT UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A ROBUST LOW SYSTEM
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/NEW ENGLAND REGIONS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE INLAND TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE EAST COAST
AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT FAR UPSTREAM.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOLID WESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW PERSISTING
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD...MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE THUS INDICATED RAIN CHANCES AT ZERO
PERCENT AND ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO THE
NORTH. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE AFTER SUNSET...YET TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 70S INLAND TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR JULY 28TH. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL AHEAD
OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. STRONG SFC HEATING UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
ADDITIONAL TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS YEAR...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES WHILE
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER A MODERATELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
THIS AMOUNT OF HEATING ALONG WITH SFC DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID
70S UNDER THE CAP SUPPORTS HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL THEREFORE BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BETWEEN 11 AM TO 7 PM. ONCE WE GET INTO MID
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST
WILL SWITCH OVER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AS WE HEAD INTO MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP BREAKS
OVER THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
NEAR -10 C...FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS HAIL
CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY MONDAY
EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED INITIALLY...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS APPARENT AS A LARGE MID LVL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A H25
JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE DIGGING
TROUGH WILL FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SUNSET...THEN INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...THE LARGEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE RISK LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES
ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE
FROPA OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS
BY TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST. BY WEDNESDAY...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUPPORT 25 TO 30 KT WINDS AT 2 KFT BY
06Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT
DECOUPLE TONIGHT...WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA
FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS...WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY...HOWEVER EXPECT ONLY A PORTION OF THESE WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE
THUS INDICATED SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
ZONES...CONFIDENCE IN THE FREQUENCY OF THESE WINDS IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS OVER THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 272028
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
428 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY
MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A FLAT UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A ROBUST LOW SYSTEM
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/NEW ENGLAND REGIONS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE INLAND TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE EAST COAST
AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT FAR UPSTREAM.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOLID WESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW PERSISTING
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD...MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE THUS INDICATED RAIN CHANCES AT ZERO
PERCENT AND ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO THE
NORTH. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE AFTER SUNSET...YET TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 70S INLAND TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR JULY 28TH. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL AHEAD
OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. STRONG SFC HEATING UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
ADDITIONAL TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS YEAR...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES WHILE
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER A MODERATELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
THIS AMOUNT OF HEATING ALONG WITH SFC DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID
70S UNDER THE CAP SUPPORTS HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL THEREFORE BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BETWEEN 11 AM TO 7 PM. ONCE WE GET INTO MID
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST
WILL SWITCH OVER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AS WE HEAD INTO MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP BREAKS
OVER THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
NEAR -10 C...FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS HAIL
CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY MONDAY
EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED INITIALLY...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS APPARENT AS A LARGE MID LVL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A H25
JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE DIGGING
TROUGH WILL FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SUNSET...THEN INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...THE LARGEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE RISK LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES
ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE
FROPA OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS
BY TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST. BY WEDNESDAY...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUPPORT 25 TO 30 KT WINDS AT 2 KFT BY
06Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT
DECOUPLE TONIGHT...WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA
FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS...WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY...HOWEVER EXPECT ONLY A PORTION OF THESE WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE
THUS INDICATED SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
ZONES...CONFIDENCE IN THE FREQUENCY OF THESE WINDS IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS OVER THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 272028
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
428 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY
MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A FLAT UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A ROBUST LOW SYSTEM
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/NEW ENGLAND REGIONS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE INLAND TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE EAST COAST
AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT FAR UPSTREAM.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOLID WESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW PERSISTING
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD...MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE THUS INDICATED RAIN CHANCES AT ZERO
PERCENT AND ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO THE
NORTH. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE AFTER SUNSET...YET TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 70S INLAND TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR JULY 28TH. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL AHEAD
OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. STRONG SFC HEATING UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
ADDITIONAL TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS YEAR...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES WHILE
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER A MODERATELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
THIS AMOUNT OF HEATING ALONG WITH SFC DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID
70S UNDER THE CAP SUPPORTS HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL THEREFORE BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BETWEEN 11 AM TO 7 PM. ONCE WE GET INTO MID
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST
WILL SWITCH OVER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AS WE HEAD INTO MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP BREAKS
OVER THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
NEAR -10 C...FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS HAIL
CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY MONDAY
EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED INITIALLY...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS APPARENT AS A LARGE MID LVL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A H25
JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE DIGGING
TROUGH WILL FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SUNSET...THEN INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...THE LARGEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE RISK LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES
ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE
FROPA OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS
BY TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST. BY WEDNESDAY...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUPPORT 25 TO 30 KT WINDS AT 2 KFT BY
06Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT
DECOUPLE TONIGHT...WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA
FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS...WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY...HOWEVER EXPECT ONLY A PORTION OF THESE WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE
THUS INDICATED SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
ZONES...CONFIDENCE IN THE FREQUENCY OF THESE WINDS IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS OVER THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KFFC 271921
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
321 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWFA BY SUNRISE
MONDAY.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PRODUCING CONVECTION ALONG THE
TN/GA BORDER OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS ANY LEFT OVER
CONVECTION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS TN. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN GA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. THE
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY GET AWAY FROM THE BEST MID LEVEL
FORCING AND DYNAMICS.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION. IF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PRODUCES ENOUGH
BLOW OFF TO LIMIT HEATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWFA...THUNDERSTORM SEVERITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...IF GOOD HEATING IS REALIZED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THE DRY AIR IN BEHIND
THE FRONT RATHER QUICKLY. SO...RAPID CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECTED DRY.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT...SOME LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WITH BE THREATENED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY
AT CSG THURSDAY MORNING. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WITH BE WITHIN 3-5
DEGREES OF THE RECORD LOWS FOR THAT DAY. LEANED HARD ON WPC HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER LEVEL
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL
KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA
DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW 80S
ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY THU/FRI WITH
NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.

01

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952



RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958



RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES. SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KAHN RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIP COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR CSG AND MCN...AFTER 18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  91  65  86 /  20  30  10   0
ATLANTA         77  88  66  84 /  20  30  10   0
BLAIRSVILLE     68  79  58  78 /  40  30   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    74  87  63  84 /  30  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        77  92  68  88 /  10  60  20   0
GAINESVILLE     74  87  64  83 /  30  30  10   0
MACON           77  94  68  89 /  10  60  40   0
ROME            74  87  63  84 /  30  20   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  75  89  63  85 /  20  30  10   0
VIDALIA         78  95  72  91 /  10  60  60   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA






000
FXUS62 KFFC 271921
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
321 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWFA BY SUNRISE
MONDAY.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PRODUCING CONVECTION ALONG THE
TN/GA BORDER OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS ANY LEFT OVER
CONVECTION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS TN. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN GA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. THE
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY GET AWAY FROM THE BEST MID LEVEL
FORCING AND DYNAMICS.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION. IF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PRODUCES ENOUGH
BLOW OFF TO LIMIT HEATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWFA...THUNDERSTORM SEVERITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...IF GOOD HEATING IS REALIZED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THE DRY AIR IN BEHIND
THE FRONT RATHER QUICKLY. SO...RAPID CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECTED DRY.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT...SOME LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WITH BE THREATENED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY
AT CSG THURSDAY MORNING. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WITH BE WITHIN 3-5
DEGREES OF THE RECORD LOWS FOR THAT DAY. LEANED HARD ON WPC HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER LEVEL
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL
KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA
DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW 80S
ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY THU/FRI WITH
NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.

01

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952



RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958



RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES. SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KAHN RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIP COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR CSG AND MCN...AFTER 18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  91  65  86 /  20  30  10   0
ATLANTA         77  88  66  84 /  20  30  10   0
BLAIRSVILLE     68  79  58  78 /  40  30   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    74  87  63  84 /  30  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        77  92  68  88 /  10  60  20   0
GAINESVILLE     74  87  64  83 /  30  30  10   0
MACON           77  94  68  89 /  10  60  40   0
ROME            74  87  63  84 /  30  20   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  75  89  63  85 /  20  30  10   0
VIDALIA         78  95  72  91 /  10  60  60   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA






000
FXUS62 KFFC 271921
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
321 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWFA BY SUNRISE
MONDAY.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PRODUCING CONVECTION ALONG THE
TN/GA BORDER OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS ANY LEFT OVER
CONVECTION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS TN. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN GA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. THE
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY GET AWAY FROM THE BEST MID LEVEL
FORCING AND DYNAMICS.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION. IF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PRODUCES ENOUGH
BLOW OFF TO LIMIT HEATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWFA...THUNDERSTORM SEVERITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...IF GOOD HEATING IS REALIZED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THE DRY AIR IN BEHIND
THE FRONT RATHER QUICKLY. SO...RAPID CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECTED DRY.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT...SOME LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WITH BE THREATENED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY
AT CSG THURSDAY MORNING. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WITH BE WITHIN 3-5
DEGREES OF THE RECORD LOWS FOR THAT DAY. LEANED HARD ON WPC HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER LEVEL
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL
KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA
DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW 80S
ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY THU/FRI WITH
NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.

01

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952



RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958



RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES. SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KAHN RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIP COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR CSG AND MCN...AFTER 18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  91  65  86 /  20  30  10   0
ATLANTA         77  88  66  84 /  20  30  10   0
BLAIRSVILLE     68  79  58  78 /  40  30   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    74  87  63  84 /  30  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        77  92  68  88 /  10  60  20   0
GAINESVILLE     74  87  64  83 /  30  30  10   0
MACON           77  94  68  89 /  10  60  40   0
ROME            74  87  63  84 /  30  20   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  75  89  63  85 /  20  30  10   0
VIDALIA         78  95  72  91 /  10  60  60   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA






000
FXUS62 KFFC 271921
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
321 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWFA BY SUNRISE
MONDAY.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PRODUCING CONVECTION ALONG THE
TN/GA BORDER OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS ANY LEFT OVER
CONVECTION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS TN. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN GA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. THE
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY GET AWAY FROM THE BEST MID LEVEL
FORCING AND DYNAMICS.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION. IF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PRODUCES ENOUGH
BLOW OFF TO LIMIT HEATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWFA...THUNDERSTORM SEVERITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...IF GOOD HEATING IS REALIZED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THE DRY AIR IN BEHIND
THE FRONT RATHER QUICKLY. SO...RAPID CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECTED DRY.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT...SOME LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WITH BE THREATENED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY
AT CSG THURSDAY MORNING. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WITH BE WITHIN 3-5
DEGREES OF THE RECORD LOWS FOR THAT DAY. LEANED HARD ON WPC HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER LEVEL
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL
KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA
DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW 80S
ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY THU/FRI WITH
NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.

01

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952



RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958



RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES. SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KAHN RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIP COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR CSG AND MCN...AFTER 18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  91  65  86 /  20  30  10   0
ATLANTA         77  88  66  84 /  20  30  10   0
BLAIRSVILLE     68  79  58  78 /  40  30   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    74  87  63  84 /  30  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        77  92  68  88 /  10  60  20   0
GAINESVILLE     74  87  64  83 /  30  30  10   0
MACON           77  94  68  89 /  10  60  40   0
ROME            74  87  63  84 /  30  20   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  75  89  63  85 /  20  30  10   0
VIDALIA         78  95  72  91 /  10  60  60   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA






000
FXUS62 KCAE 271832
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
232 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
LATE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER IMPULSE AND SURFACE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...HAS PUSHED WELL EAST
OF OUR FA. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS OUR ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL AMPLIFY
DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...PROBABLY IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING,. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE DUE TO STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WITH WEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT 850MB...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK. UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY PATTERN
APPEARS CHANNELED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA IN THE AFTERNOON AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ALSO STRONGER TO THE NORTH. 850MB SPEED MAX NEAR THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THINK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT...INVERTED V SOUNDING. SPC
HAS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS/CSRA IN SLIGHT RISK. RAIN CHANCES
RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

EXPECT COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT...WHICH AS A RESULT OF DOWNSLOPE WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
90S. BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD
10 DEGREES COOLER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SURFACE
TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE IN TO KEEP MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WEAK WEDGE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY. CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH AS SHORT WAVES DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORT MAX/MCS WILL
REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS. ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR FA TODAY STILL
GENERALLY DRY...SO EXPECTING MINIMAL IF ANY CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...SO NO FOG ISSUES EXPECTED. ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY EXPECTED TO BY MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUE/WED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE COULD TIE OR BREAK A RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT
COLUMBIA. THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT FOR COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES. RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JUL 28TH AT COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES LAST SET IN 1936.

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 28TH IS
82...ALSO SET IN 1936.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 271832
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
232 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
LATE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER IMPULSE AND SURFACE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...HAS PUSHED WELL EAST
OF OUR FA. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS OUR ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL AMPLIFY
DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...PROBABLY IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING,. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE DUE TO STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WITH WEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT 850MB...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK. UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY PATTERN
APPEARS CHANNELED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA IN THE AFTERNOON AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ALSO STRONGER TO THE NORTH. 850MB SPEED MAX NEAR THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THINK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT...INVERTED V SOUNDING. SPC
HAS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS/CSRA IN SLIGHT RISK. RAIN CHANCES
RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

EXPECT COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT...WHICH AS A RESULT OF DOWNSLOPE WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
90S. BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD
10 DEGREES COOLER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SURFACE
TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE IN TO KEEP MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WEAK WEDGE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY. CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH AS SHORT WAVES DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORT MAX/MCS WILL
REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS. ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR FA TODAY STILL
GENERALLY DRY...SO EXPECTING MINIMAL IF ANY CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...SO NO FOG ISSUES EXPECTED. ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY EXPECTED TO BY MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUE/WED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE COULD TIE OR BREAK A RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT
COLUMBIA. THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT FOR COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES. RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JUL 28TH AT COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES LAST SET IN 1936.

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 28TH IS
82...ALSO SET IN 1936.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 271757
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
157 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY
MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLAT UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE ALOFT FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA TODAY...CONFINING ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOLID
WEST FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
WILL ADDITIONALLY SUPPRESS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 1.5
INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
BOTH CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH...LENDING FURTHER CONFIDENCE IN THE
ONGOING RAIN-FREE FORECAST.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER
THE DEEP OFFSHORE FLOW AND RISING THICKNESS VALUES. WILL INDICATE
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND TO UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MIXING WITHIN OFFSHORE FLOW TO ALLOW
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...HEAT
INDICES OF 105 TO 108 DEGREES WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF THE LOCAL
LATE-SEASON HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110 DEGREES. TRENDS WILL
STILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS ANY
SLIGHT VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES OR DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY IF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE...COULD BRING CONDITIONS INTO HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
EITHER WAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY HOT AND HUMID TO
WARRANT EXTRA CAUTION WHEN OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...A BROAD AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL START TO CARVE OUT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...CAUSING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEAR THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE.
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND ALONG WITH A
SPARSE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS. CONSIDERING A BUILD UP OF THE EXTREME DAYTIME
HEAT...ALONG WITH AND THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER NEVER FULLY
DECOUPLING...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY FALL INTO THE MID OR
UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS COULD BE MORE ABUNDANT...FURTHER EVIDENCE OF A VERY WARM
NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE NIGHT REMAINING ABOVE 80
DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINS FOR
JULY 28TH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AS
THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT CAP
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LACK OF
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION
AND WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE WESTERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN MANY AREAS.
WITH THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT...THE TREMENDOUS SURFACE HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE NEAR
STORM ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND
THERMODYNAMICS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING WITH IT
30-40 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATIONS OF THE
PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HAIL CAPES ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY THERE...AS WELL AS
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED...BUT WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
STRONG. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF SHEAR...THE
MODE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND SOME COMBINATION OF
MULTICELLS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE TIME PERIOD OF
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE SAME...AS EARLY AS 4-5 PM
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
FOR BOTH THE HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT MORE THAN ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD REDUCE HEAT INDICES AND FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING WITH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS. WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY AND
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HWO MENTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MUCH COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. DECENT MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH
SUNSET. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL FURTHER INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
SUPPORT 25 TO 30 KT WINDS AT 2 KFT BY 06Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
CONSIDERING THAT WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE TONIGHT...WIND SHEAR
VALUES WILL FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME LOCATED WITHIN A FAIRLY
TIGHT GRADIENT BY JULY STANDARDS...SITUATED BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL
ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 12 TO 17
KT...WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM FROM 2 TO
4 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AND PARTS OF
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS.

TONIGHT...THERE IS A FURTHER PACKING OF THE ISOBARS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERN STATES LOW INTENSIFYING AND A COLD FRONT HEADING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. IN FACT THERE IS AS MUCH AS A 3 MB SPREAD
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES.
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TOP OUT AT 25-30 KT...BUT GIVEN THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ONLY A PORTION OF THIS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE OF THE WATER. WHAT IS ANTICIPATED IS FOR SW WINDS TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE NIGHT...UP TO SOME 17-22 KT. GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH AROUND 25 KT...BUT FOR THE MOMENT THEIR FREQUENCY AND
SPATIAL COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY HOISTING THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FLAGS. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS WILL RE- ADDRESS THIS
SITUATION TO SEE IF ANY ADVISORIES WOULD BE NECESSARY. SEAS WILL
CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR SO FROM TODAY...CAPPED AT 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 271757
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
157 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY
MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLAT UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE ALOFT FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA TODAY...CONFINING ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOLID
WEST FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
WILL ADDITIONALLY SUPPRESS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 1.5
INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
BOTH CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH...LENDING FURTHER CONFIDENCE IN THE
ONGOING RAIN-FREE FORECAST.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER
THE DEEP OFFSHORE FLOW AND RISING THICKNESS VALUES. WILL INDICATE
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND TO UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MIXING WITHIN OFFSHORE FLOW TO ALLOW
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...HEAT
INDICES OF 105 TO 108 DEGREES WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF THE LOCAL
LATE-SEASON HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110 DEGREES. TRENDS WILL
STILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS ANY
SLIGHT VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES OR DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY IF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE...COULD BRING CONDITIONS INTO HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
EITHER WAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY HOT AND HUMID TO
WARRANT EXTRA CAUTION WHEN OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...A BROAD AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL START TO CARVE OUT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...CAUSING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEAR THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE.
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND ALONG WITH A
SPARSE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS. CONSIDERING A BUILD UP OF THE EXTREME DAYTIME
HEAT...ALONG WITH AND THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER NEVER FULLY
DECOUPLING...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY FALL INTO THE MID OR
UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS COULD BE MORE ABUNDANT...FURTHER EVIDENCE OF A VERY WARM
NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE NIGHT REMAINING ABOVE 80
DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINS FOR
JULY 28TH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AS
THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT CAP
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LACK OF
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION
AND WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE WESTERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN MANY AREAS.
WITH THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT...THE TREMENDOUS SURFACE HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE NEAR
STORM ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND
THERMODYNAMICS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING WITH IT
30-40 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATIONS OF THE
PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HAIL CAPES ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY THERE...AS WELL AS
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED...BUT WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
STRONG. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF SHEAR...THE
MODE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND SOME COMBINATION OF
MULTICELLS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE TIME PERIOD OF
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE SAME...AS EARLY AS 4-5 PM
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
FOR BOTH THE HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT MORE THAN ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD REDUCE HEAT INDICES AND FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING WITH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS. WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY AND
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HWO MENTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MUCH COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. DECENT MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH
SUNSET. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL FURTHER INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
SUPPORT 25 TO 30 KT WINDS AT 2 KFT BY 06Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
CONSIDERING THAT WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE TONIGHT...WIND SHEAR
VALUES WILL FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME LOCATED WITHIN A FAIRLY
TIGHT GRADIENT BY JULY STANDARDS...SITUATED BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL
ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 12 TO 17
KT...WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM FROM 2 TO
4 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AND PARTS OF
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS.

TONIGHT...THERE IS A FURTHER PACKING OF THE ISOBARS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERN STATES LOW INTENSIFYING AND A COLD FRONT HEADING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. IN FACT THERE IS AS MUCH AS A 3 MB SPREAD
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES.
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TOP OUT AT 25-30 KT...BUT GIVEN THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ONLY A PORTION OF THIS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE OF THE WATER. WHAT IS ANTICIPATED IS FOR SW WINDS TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE NIGHT...UP TO SOME 17-22 KT. GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH AROUND 25 KT...BUT FOR THE MOMENT THEIR FREQUENCY AND
SPATIAL COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY HOISTING THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FLAGS. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS WILL RE- ADDRESS THIS
SITUATION TO SEE IF ANY ADVISORIES WOULD BE NECESSARY. SEAS WILL
CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR SO FROM TODAY...CAPPED AT 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 271757
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
157 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY
MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLAT UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE ALOFT FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA TODAY...CONFINING ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOLID
WEST FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
WILL ADDITIONALLY SUPPRESS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 1.5
INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
BOTH CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH...LENDING FURTHER CONFIDENCE IN THE
ONGOING RAIN-FREE FORECAST.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER
THE DEEP OFFSHORE FLOW AND RISING THICKNESS VALUES. WILL INDICATE
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND TO UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MIXING WITHIN OFFSHORE FLOW TO ALLOW
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...HEAT
INDICES OF 105 TO 108 DEGREES WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF THE LOCAL
LATE-SEASON HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110 DEGREES. TRENDS WILL
STILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS ANY
SLIGHT VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES OR DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY IF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE...COULD BRING CONDITIONS INTO HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
EITHER WAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY HOT AND HUMID TO
WARRANT EXTRA CAUTION WHEN OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...A BROAD AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL START TO CARVE OUT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...CAUSING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEAR THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE.
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND ALONG WITH A
SPARSE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS. CONSIDERING A BUILD UP OF THE EXTREME DAYTIME
HEAT...ALONG WITH AND THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER NEVER FULLY
DECOUPLING...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY FALL INTO THE MID OR
UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS COULD BE MORE ABUNDANT...FURTHER EVIDENCE OF A VERY WARM
NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE NIGHT REMAINING ABOVE 80
DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINS FOR
JULY 28TH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AS
THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT CAP
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LACK OF
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION
AND WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE WESTERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN MANY AREAS.
WITH THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT...THE TREMENDOUS SURFACE HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE NEAR
STORM ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND
THERMODYNAMICS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING WITH IT
30-40 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATIONS OF THE
PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HAIL CAPES ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY THERE...AS WELL AS
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED...BUT WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
STRONG. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF SHEAR...THE
MODE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND SOME COMBINATION OF
MULTICELLS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE TIME PERIOD OF
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE SAME...AS EARLY AS 4-5 PM
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
FOR BOTH THE HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT MORE THAN ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD REDUCE HEAT INDICES AND FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING WITH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS. WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY AND
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HWO MENTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MUCH COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. DECENT MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH
SUNSET. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL FURTHER INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
SUPPORT 25 TO 30 KT WINDS AT 2 KFT BY 06Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
CONSIDERING THAT WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE TONIGHT...WIND SHEAR
VALUES WILL FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME LOCATED WITHIN A FAIRLY
TIGHT GRADIENT BY JULY STANDARDS...SITUATED BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL
ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 12 TO 17
KT...WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM FROM 2 TO
4 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AND PARTS OF
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS.

TONIGHT...THERE IS A FURTHER PACKING OF THE ISOBARS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERN STATES LOW INTENSIFYING AND A COLD FRONT HEADING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. IN FACT THERE IS AS MUCH AS A 3 MB SPREAD
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES.
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TOP OUT AT 25-30 KT...BUT GIVEN THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ONLY A PORTION OF THIS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE OF THE WATER. WHAT IS ANTICIPATED IS FOR SW WINDS TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE NIGHT...UP TO SOME 17-22 KT. GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH AROUND 25 KT...BUT FOR THE MOMENT THEIR FREQUENCY AND
SPATIAL COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY HOISTING THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FLAGS. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS WILL RE- ADDRESS THIS
SITUATION TO SEE IF ANY ADVISORIES WOULD BE NECESSARY. SEAS WILL
CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR SO FROM TODAY...CAPPED AT 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 271757
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
157 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY
MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLAT UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE ALOFT FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA TODAY...CONFINING ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOLID
WEST FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
WILL ADDITIONALLY SUPPRESS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 1.5
INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
BOTH CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH...LENDING FURTHER CONFIDENCE IN THE
ONGOING RAIN-FREE FORECAST.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER
THE DEEP OFFSHORE FLOW AND RISING THICKNESS VALUES. WILL INDICATE
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND TO UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MIXING WITHIN OFFSHORE FLOW TO ALLOW
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...HEAT
INDICES OF 105 TO 108 DEGREES WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF THE LOCAL
LATE-SEASON HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110 DEGREES. TRENDS WILL
STILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS ANY
SLIGHT VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES OR DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY IF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE...COULD BRING CONDITIONS INTO HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
EITHER WAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY HOT AND HUMID TO
WARRANT EXTRA CAUTION WHEN OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...A BROAD AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL START TO CARVE OUT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...CAUSING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEAR THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE.
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND ALONG WITH A
SPARSE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS. CONSIDERING A BUILD UP OF THE EXTREME DAYTIME
HEAT...ALONG WITH AND THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER NEVER FULLY
DECOUPLING...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY FALL INTO THE MID OR
UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS COULD BE MORE ABUNDANT...FURTHER EVIDENCE OF A VERY WARM
NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE NIGHT REMAINING ABOVE 80
DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINS FOR
JULY 28TH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AS
THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT CAP
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LACK OF
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION
AND WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE WESTERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN MANY AREAS.
WITH THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT...THE TREMENDOUS SURFACE HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE NEAR
STORM ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND
THERMODYNAMICS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING WITH IT
30-40 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATIONS OF THE
PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HAIL CAPES ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY THERE...AS WELL AS
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED...BUT WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
STRONG. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF SHEAR...THE
MODE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND SOME COMBINATION OF
MULTICELLS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE TIME PERIOD OF
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE SAME...AS EARLY AS 4-5 PM
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
FOR BOTH THE HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT MORE THAN ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD REDUCE HEAT INDICES AND FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING WITH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS. WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY AND
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HWO MENTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MUCH COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. DECENT MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH
SUNSET. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL FURTHER INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
SUPPORT 25 TO 30 KT WINDS AT 2 KFT BY 06Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
CONSIDERING THAT WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE TONIGHT...WIND SHEAR
VALUES WILL FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME LOCATED WITHIN A FAIRLY
TIGHT GRADIENT BY JULY STANDARDS...SITUATED BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL
ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 12 TO 17
KT...WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM FROM 2 TO
4 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AND PARTS OF
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS.

TONIGHT...THERE IS A FURTHER PACKING OF THE ISOBARS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERN STATES LOW INTENSIFYING AND A COLD FRONT HEADING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. IN FACT THERE IS AS MUCH AS A 3 MB SPREAD
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES.
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TOP OUT AT 25-30 KT...BUT GIVEN THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ONLY A PORTION OF THIS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE OF THE WATER. WHAT IS ANTICIPATED IS FOR SW WINDS TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE NIGHT...UP TO SOME 17-22 KT. GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH AROUND 25 KT...BUT FOR THE MOMENT THEIR FREQUENCY AND
SPATIAL COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY HOISTING THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FLAGS. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS WILL RE- ADDRESS THIS
SITUATION TO SEE IF ANY ADVISORIES WOULD BE NECESSARY. SEAS WILL
CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR SO FROM TODAY...CAPPED AT 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KFFC 271734
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
134 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF GA TODAY. ONLY SOME
CLOUDS EXPECTED...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES.

HAVE ONLY MADE SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS AND SKY
GRIDS. THE ISOLD POPS UP NORTH LATE STILL LOOK GOOD. ANY COMPLEX
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE OHIO/TN VALLEY AND DROPS SE MAY BRUSH
EXTREME NORTHERN GA BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE HRRR CURRENTLY KEEPS
PRECIP NORTH OF THE STATE LINE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
EXPECT A RATHER QUIET...BUT HOT WEATHER DAY TODAY AS MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST... RESULTING IN A
WARM/DRY WESTERLY FLOW. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER... THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IS A MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT
THAT PUSHES INTO NORTH GA BETWEEN 5-7 AM MONDAY MORNING... ACROSS
THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN TO NEAR A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BETWEEN 4-6 PM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS AGREE ON THE GREATER
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT WHILE IT
PUSHES THROUGH A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT... WITH
EXPECTED MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE DURING THE HOT
MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME... IT APPEARS A 40-50 KT MID
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT... SPC HAS POSTED A SLIGHT RISK AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. EXPECT THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 9-10 PM MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE FRONT... EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS AS A COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS
SPREADS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS... HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST AND A HOT/DRY
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS TODAY WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MOST
AREAS... BUT NO RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN. THE WARM
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL HAVE TROUBLE COOLING OVERNIGHT... WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW MAX LOW TEMPS BEING BROKEN TONIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL HELP HOLD HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GA ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER... DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL GA WILL BE ALLOWED
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 90S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

39

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER
LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
IN ACROSS THE AREA DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND
LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY
THU/FRI WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-28

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     75 1977     77 1936     59 1911
                            1926
   KATL     101 1952     69 1977     77 1981     62 1911
   KCSG     100 1993     81 1977     77 2010     67 1954
                1952
   KMCN     101 1993     76 1977     77 1958     62 1911
                1952                    1936

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES. SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KAHN RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIP COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR CSG AND MCN...AFTER 18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW BEHIND TH BOUDNARY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          96  74  92  66 /  10  20  30  10
ATLANTA         93  76  90  67 /  10  20  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  82  58 /  20  40  30   5
CARTERSVILLE    93  73  89  64 /  10  30  30   5
COLUMBUS        96  77  94  69 /   5  10  60  20
GAINESVILLE     92  74  88  66 /  10  30  30  10
MACON           96  75  95  67 /   5  10  60  40
ROME            93  73  89  65 /  10  30  20   5
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  91  65 /  10  20  30  10
VIDALIA         97  78  96  72 /   5  10  60  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KFFC 271734
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
134 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF GA TODAY. ONLY SOME
CLOUDS EXPECTED...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES.

HAVE ONLY MADE SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS AND SKY
GRIDS. THE ISOLD POPS UP NORTH LATE STILL LOOK GOOD. ANY COMPLEX
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE OHIO/TN VALLEY AND DROPS SE MAY BRUSH
EXTREME NORTHERN GA BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE HRRR CURRENTLY KEEPS
PRECIP NORTH OF THE STATE LINE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
EXPECT A RATHER QUIET...BUT HOT WEATHER DAY TODAY AS MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST... RESULTING IN A
WARM/DRY WESTERLY FLOW. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER... THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IS A MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT
THAT PUSHES INTO NORTH GA BETWEEN 5-7 AM MONDAY MORNING... ACROSS
THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN TO NEAR A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BETWEEN 4-6 PM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS AGREE ON THE GREATER
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT WHILE IT
PUSHES THROUGH A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT... WITH
EXPECTED MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE DURING THE HOT
MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME... IT APPEARS A 40-50 KT MID
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT... SPC HAS POSTED A SLIGHT RISK AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. EXPECT THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 9-10 PM MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE FRONT... EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS AS A COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS
SPREADS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS... HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST AND A HOT/DRY
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS TODAY WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MOST
AREAS... BUT NO RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN. THE WARM
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL HAVE TROUBLE COOLING OVERNIGHT... WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW MAX LOW TEMPS BEING BROKEN TONIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL HELP HOLD HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GA ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER... DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL GA WILL BE ALLOWED
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 90S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

39

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER
LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
IN ACROSS THE AREA DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND
LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY
THU/FRI WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-28

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     75 1977     77 1936     59 1911
                            1926
   KATL     101 1952     69 1977     77 1981     62 1911
   KCSG     100 1993     81 1977     77 2010     67 1954
                1952
   KMCN     101 1993     76 1977     77 1958     62 1911
                1952                    1936

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES. SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KAHN RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIP COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR CSG AND MCN...AFTER 18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW BEHIND TH BOUDNARY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          96  74  92  66 /  10  20  30  10
ATLANTA         93  76  90  67 /  10  20  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  82  58 /  20  40  30   5
CARTERSVILLE    93  73  89  64 /  10  30  30   5
COLUMBUS        96  77  94  69 /   5  10  60  20
GAINESVILLE     92  74  88  66 /  10  30  30  10
MACON           96  75  95  67 /   5  10  60  40
ROME            93  73  89  65 /  10  30  20   5
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  91  65 /  10  20  30  10
VIDALIA         97  78  96  72 /   5  10  60  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KFFC 271734
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
134 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF GA TODAY. ONLY SOME
CLOUDS EXPECTED...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES.

HAVE ONLY MADE SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS AND SKY
GRIDS. THE ISOLD POPS UP NORTH LATE STILL LOOK GOOD. ANY COMPLEX
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE OHIO/TN VALLEY AND DROPS SE MAY BRUSH
EXTREME NORTHERN GA BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE HRRR CURRENTLY KEEPS
PRECIP NORTH OF THE STATE LINE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
EXPECT A RATHER QUIET...BUT HOT WEATHER DAY TODAY AS MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST... RESULTING IN A
WARM/DRY WESTERLY FLOW. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER... THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IS A MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT
THAT PUSHES INTO NORTH GA BETWEEN 5-7 AM MONDAY MORNING... ACROSS
THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN TO NEAR A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BETWEEN 4-6 PM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS AGREE ON THE GREATER
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT WHILE IT
PUSHES THROUGH A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT... WITH
EXPECTED MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE DURING THE HOT
MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME... IT APPEARS A 40-50 KT MID
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT... SPC HAS POSTED A SLIGHT RISK AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. EXPECT THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 9-10 PM MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE FRONT... EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS AS A COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS
SPREADS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS... HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST AND A HOT/DRY
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS TODAY WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MOST
AREAS... BUT NO RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN. THE WARM
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL HAVE TROUBLE COOLING OVERNIGHT... WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW MAX LOW TEMPS BEING BROKEN TONIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL HELP HOLD HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GA ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER... DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL GA WILL BE ALLOWED
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 90S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

39

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER
LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
IN ACROSS THE AREA DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND
LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY
THU/FRI WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-28

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     75 1977     77 1936     59 1911
                            1926
   KATL     101 1952     69 1977     77 1981     62 1911
   KCSG     100 1993     81 1977     77 2010     67 1954
                1952
   KMCN     101 1993     76 1977     77 1958     62 1911
                1952                    1936

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES. SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KAHN RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIP COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR CSG AND MCN...AFTER 18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW BEHIND TH BOUDNARY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          96  74  92  66 /  10  20  30  10
ATLANTA         93  76  90  67 /  10  20  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  82  58 /  20  40  30   5
CARTERSVILLE    93  73  89  64 /  10  30  30   5
COLUMBUS        96  77  94  69 /   5  10  60  20
GAINESVILLE     92  74  88  66 /  10  30  30  10
MACON           96  75  95  67 /   5  10  60  40
ROME            93  73  89  65 /  10  30  20   5
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  91  65 /  10  20  30  10
VIDALIA         97  78  96  72 /   5  10  60  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KFFC 271734
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
134 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF GA TODAY. ONLY SOME
CLOUDS EXPECTED...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES.

HAVE ONLY MADE SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS AND SKY
GRIDS. THE ISOLD POPS UP NORTH LATE STILL LOOK GOOD. ANY COMPLEX
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE OHIO/TN VALLEY AND DROPS SE MAY BRUSH
EXTREME NORTHERN GA BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE HRRR CURRENTLY KEEPS
PRECIP NORTH OF THE STATE LINE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
EXPECT A RATHER QUIET...BUT HOT WEATHER DAY TODAY AS MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST... RESULTING IN A
WARM/DRY WESTERLY FLOW. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER... THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IS A MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT
THAT PUSHES INTO NORTH GA BETWEEN 5-7 AM MONDAY MORNING... ACROSS
THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN TO NEAR A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BETWEEN 4-6 PM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS AGREE ON THE GREATER
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT WHILE IT
PUSHES THROUGH A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT... WITH
EXPECTED MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE DURING THE HOT
MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME... IT APPEARS A 40-50 KT MID
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT... SPC HAS POSTED A SLIGHT RISK AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. EXPECT THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 9-10 PM MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE FRONT... EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS AS A COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS
SPREADS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS... HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST AND A HOT/DRY
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS TODAY WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MOST
AREAS... BUT NO RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN. THE WARM
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL HAVE TROUBLE COOLING OVERNIGHT... WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW MAX LOW TEMPS BEING BROKEN TONIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL HELP HOLD HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GA ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER... DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL GA WILL BE ALLOWED
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 90S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

39

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER
LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
IN ACROSS THE AREA DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND
LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY
THU/FRI WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-28

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     75 1977     77 1936     59 1911
                            1926
   KATL     101 1952     69 1977     77 1981     62 1911
   KCSG     100 1993     81 1977     77 2010     67 1954
                1952
   KMCN     101 1993     76 1977     77 1958     62 1911
                1952                    1936

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES. SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KAHN RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIP COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR CSG AND MCN...AFTER 18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW BEHIND TH BOUDNARY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          96  74  92  66 /  10  20  30  10
ATLANTA         93  76  90  67 /  10  20  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  82  58 /  20  40  30   5
CARTERSVILLE    93  73  89  64 /  10  30  30   5
COLUMBUS        96  77  94  69 /   5  10  60  20
GAINESVILLE     92  74  88  66 /  10  30  30  10
MACON           96  75  95  67 /   5  10  60  40
ROME            93  73  89  65 /  10  30  20   5
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  91  65 /  10  20  30  10
VIDALIA         97  78  96  72 /   5  10  60  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 271511
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1111 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER IMPULSE AND SURFACE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...PUSHING OUT OF OUR EASTERN
FORECAST AREA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS BECOMING LESS
PRONOUNCED. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...AS
OUR ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST
RUNS ALSO INDICATING THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH DRIER THAT
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE
COAST...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL GENERALLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXTREMELY MILD READINGS FORECAST TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL
EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. FOR MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW
EXPECT PASSAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 90S. BEHIND
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM THINKING AND FORECAST.  THE
MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SURFACE
TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE IN TO KEEP MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORT MAX/MCS WILL
REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS. ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR FA TODAY STILL
GENERALLY DRY...SO EXPECTING MINIMAL IF ANY CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...SO NO FOG ISSUES EXPECTED. ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY EXPECTED TO BY MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUE/WED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE COULD TIE OR BREAK A RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT
COLUMBIA. THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT FOR COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES. RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JUL 28TH AT COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES LAST SET IN 1936.

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 28TH IS
82...ALSO SET IN 1936.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 271511
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1111 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER IMPULSE AND SURFACE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...PUSHING OUT OF OUR EASTERN
FORECAST AREA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS BECOMING LESS
PRONOUNCED. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...AS
OUR ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST
RUNS ALSO INDICATING THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH DRIER THAT
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE
COAST...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL GENERALLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXTREMELY MILD READINGS FORECAST TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL
EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. FOR MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW
EXPECT PASSAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 90S. BEHIND
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM THINKING AND FORECAST.  THE
MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SURFACE
TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE IN TO KEEP MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORT MAX/MCS WILL
REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS. ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR FA TODAY STILL
GENERALLY DRY...SO EXPECTING MINIMAL IF ANY CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...SO NO FOG ISSUES EXPECTED. ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY EXPECTED TO BY MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUE/WED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE COULD TIE OR BREAK A RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT
COLUMBIA. THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT FOR COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES. RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JUL 28TH AT COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES LAST SET IN 1936.

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 28TH IS
82...ALSO SET IN 1936.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 271511
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1111 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER IMPULSE AND SURFACE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...PUSHING OUT OF OUR EASTERN
FORECAST AREA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS BECOMING LESS
PRONOUNCED. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...AS
OUR ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST
RUNS ALSO INDICATING THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH DRIER THAT
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE
COAST...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL GENERALLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXTREMELY MILD READINGS FORECAST TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL
EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. FOR MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW
EXPECT PASSAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 90S. BEHIND
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM THINKING AND FORECAST.  THE
MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SURFACE
TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE IN TO KEEP MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORT MAX/MCS WILL
REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS. ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR FA TODAY STILL
GENERALLY DRY...SO EXPECTING MINIMAL IF ANY CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...SO NO FOG ISSUES EXPECTED. ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY EXPECTED TO BY MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUE/WED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE COULD TIE OR BREAK A RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT
COLUMBIA. THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT FOR COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES. RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JUL 28TH AT COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES LAST SET IN 1936.

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 28TH IS
82...ALSO SET IN 1936.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 271511
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1111 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER IMPULSE AND SURFACE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...PUSHING OUT OF OUR EASTERN
FORECAST AREA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS BECOMING LESS
PRONOUNCED. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...AS
OUR ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST
RUNS ALSO INDICATING THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH DRIER THAT
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE
COAST...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL GENERALLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXTREMELY MILD READINGS FORECAST TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL
EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. FOR MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW
EXPECT PASSAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 90S. BEHIND
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM THINKING AND FORECAST.  THE
MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SURFACE
TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE IN TO KEEP MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORT MAX/MCS WILL
REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS. ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR FA TODAY STILL
GENERALLY DRY...SO EXPECTING MINIMAL IF ANY CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...SO NO FOG ISSUES EXPECTED. ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY EXPECTED TO BY MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUE/WED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE COULD TIE OR BREAK A RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT
COLUMBIA. THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT FOR COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES. RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JUL 28TH AT COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES LAST SET IN 1936.

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 28TH IS
82...ALSO SET IN 1936.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 271501
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1101 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY
MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE MORNING RADAR TRENDS SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION JUST TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST STRETCHING DOWN TOWARD LAKE MARION...INITIATED BY
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RAPIDLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. FLAT UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN CONTROL OF MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA TODAY...LIKELY CONFINING THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. ALTHOUGH
AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD SHIFT INTO NORTHERN BERKELEY COUNTY
DURING THE NEXT HOUR...COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15
PERCENT. SOLID WEST FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION WILL OTHERWISE SUPPRESS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
FALL BELOW 1.5 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT BOTH CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH...LENDING
FURTHER CONFIDENCE IN THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE FORECAST.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER
THE DEEP OFFSHORE FLOW AND RISING THICKNESS VALUES. HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY ON TRACK WITH THE
FORECAST...AND THUS PREFER TO MAKE NO CHANGES WITH THE LATE
MORNING UPDATE. WILL INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES. NEARLY
ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MIXING
WITHIN OFFSHORE FLOW TO ALLOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS...HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 108 DEGREES WILL FALL
JUST SHORT OF THE LOCAL LATE-SEASON HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110
DEGREES. TRENDS WILL STILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...AS ANY SLIGHT VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES OR
DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE...COULD BRING CONDITIONS INTO HEAT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. EITHER WAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY
HOT AND HUMID TO WARRANT EXTRA CAUTION WHEN OUTSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...A BROAD AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL START TO CARVE OUT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...CAUSING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEAR THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE.
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND ALONG WITH A
SPARSE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS. CONSIDERING A BUILD UP OF THE EXTREME DAYTIME
HEAT...ALONG WITH AND THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER NEVER FULLY
DECOUPLING...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY FALL INTO THE MID OR
UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS COULD BE MORE ABUNDANT...FURTHER EVIDENCE OF A VERY WARM
NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE NIGHT REMAINING ABOVE 80
DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINS FOR
JULY 28TH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AS
THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT CAP
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LACK OF
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION
AND WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE WESTERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN MANY AREAS.
WITH THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT...THE TREMENDOUS SURFACE HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE NEAR
STORM ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND
THERMODYNAMICS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING WITH IT
30-40 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATIONS OF THE
PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HAIL CAPES ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY THERE...AS WELL AS
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED...BUT WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
STRONG. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF SHEAR...THE
MODE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND SOME COMBINATION OF
MULTICELLS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE TIME PERIOD OF
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE SAME...AS EARLY AS 4-5 PM
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
FOR BOTH THE HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT MORE THAN ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD REDUCE HEAT INDICES AND FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING WITH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS. WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY AND
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HWO MENTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MUCH COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z MONDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV DUE
TO THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MIXING TAPPING INTO 15 TO 20 KT WINDS
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AND ALTHOUGH NOT TECHNICALLY WIND
SHEAR...WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT WILL BE OBSERVED DOWN NEAR 1 TO 2 KFT
AFTER 05Z TO 06Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME LOCATED WITHIN A FAIRLY
TIGHT GRADIENT BY JULY STANDARDS...SITUATED BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL
ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 12 TO 17
KT...WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP AT 2 TO 4
FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AND PARTS OF
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS.

TONIGHT...THERE IS A FURTHER PACKING OF THE ISOBARS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERN STATES LOW INTENSIFYING AND A COLD FRONT HEADING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. IN FACT THERE IS AS MUCH AS A 3 MB SPREAD
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES.
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TOP OUT AT 25-30 KT...BUT GIVEN THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ONLY A PORTION OF THIS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE OF THE WATER. WHAT IS ANTICIPATED IS FOR SW WINDS TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE NIGHT...UP TO SOME 17-22 KT. GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH AROUND 25 KT...BUT FOR THE MOMENT THEIR FREQUENCY AND
SPATIAL COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY HOISTING THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FLAGS. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS WILL RE- ADDRESS THIS
SITUATION TO SEE IF ANY ADVISORIES WOULD BE NECESSARY. SEAS WILL
CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR SO FROM TODAY...CAPPED AT 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 271501
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1101 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY
MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE MORNING RADAR TRENDS SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION JUST TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST STRETCHING DOWN TOWARD LAKE MARION...INITIATED BY
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RAPIDLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. FLAT UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN CONTROL OF MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA TODAY...LIKELY CONFINING THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. ALTHOUGH
AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD SHIFT INTO NORTHERN BERKELEY COUNTY
DURING THE NEXT HOUR...COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15
PERCENT. SOLID WEST FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION WILL OTHERWISE SUPPRESS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
FALL BELOW 1.5 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT BOTH CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH...LENDING
FURTHER CONFIDENCE IN THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE FORECAST.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER
THE DEEP OFFSHORE FLOW AND RISING THICKNESS VALUES. HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY ON TRACK WITH THE
FORECAST...AND THUS PREFER TO MAKE NO CHANGES WITH THE LATE
MORNING UPDATE. WILL INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES. NEARLY
ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MIXING
WITHIN OFFSHORE FLOW TO ALLOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS...HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 108 DEGREES WILL FALL
JUST SHORT OF THE LOCAL LATE-SEASON HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110
DEGREES. TRENDS WILL STILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...AS ANY SLIGHT VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES OR
DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE...COULD BRING CONDITIONS INTO HEAT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. EITHER WAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY
HOT AND HUMID TO WARRANT EXTRA CAUTION WHEN OUTSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...A BROAD AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL START TO CARVE OUT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...CAUSING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEAR THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE.
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND ALONG WITH A
SPARSE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS. CONSIDERING A BUILD UP OF THE EXTREME DAYTIME
HEAT...ALONG WITH AND THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER NEVER FULLY
DECOUPLING...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY FALL INTO THE MID OR
UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS COULD BE MORE ABUNDANT...FURTHER EVIDENCE OF A VERY WARM
NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE NIGHT REMAINING ABOVE 80
DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINS FOR
JULY 28TH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AS
THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT CAP
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LACK OF
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION
AND WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE WESTERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN MANY AREAS.
WITH THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT...THE TREMENDOUS SURFACE HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE NEAR
STORM ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND
THERMODYNAMICS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING WITH IT
30-40 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATIONS OF THE
PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HAIL CAPES ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY THERE...AS WELL AS
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED...BUT WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
STRONG. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF SHEAR...THE
MODE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND SOME COMBINATION OF
MULTICELLS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE TIME PERIOD OF
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE SAME...AS EARLY AS 4-5 PM
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
FOR BOTH THE HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT MORE THAN ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD REDUCE HEAT INDICES AND FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING WITH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS. WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY AND
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HWO MENTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MUCH COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z MONDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV DUE
TO THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MIXING TAPPING INTO 15 TO 20 KT WINDS
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AND ALTHOUGH NOT TECHNICALLY WIND
SHEAR...WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT WILL BE OBSERVED DOWN NEAR 1 TO 2 KFT
AFTER 05Z TO 06Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME LOCATED WITHIN A FAIRLY
TIGHT GRADIENT BY JULY STANDARDS...SITUATED BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL
ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 12 TO 17
KT...WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP AT 2 TO 4
FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AND PARTS OF
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS.

TONIGHT...THERE IS A FURTHER PACKING OF THE ISOBARS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERN STATES LOW INTENSIFYING AND A COLD FRONT HEADING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. IN FACT THERE IS AS MUCH AS A 3 MB SPREAD
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES.
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TOP OUT AT 25-30 KT...BUT GIVEN THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ONLY A PORTION OF THIS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE OF THE WATER. WHAT IS ANTICIPATED IS FOR SW WINDS TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE NIGHT...UP TO SOME 17-22 KT. GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH AROUND 25 KT...BUT FOR THE MOMENT THEIR FREQUENCY AND
SPATIAL COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY HOISTING THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FLAGS. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS WILL RE- ADDRESS THIS
SITUATION TO SEE IF ANY ADVISORIES WOULD BE NECESSARY. SEAS WILL
CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR SO FROM TODAY...CAPPED AT 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KFFC 271412
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1012 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014



.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF GA TODAY. ONLY SOME
CLOUDS EXPECTED...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES.

HAVE ONLY MADE SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS AND SKY
GRIDS. THE ISOLD POPS UP NORTH LATE STILL LOOK GOOD. ANY COMPLEX
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE OHIO/TN VALLEY AND DROPS SE MAY BRUSH
EXTREME NORTHERN GA BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE HRRR CURRENTLY KEEPS
PRECIP NORTH OF THE STATE LINE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
EXPECT A RATHER QUIET...BUT HOT WEATHER DAY TODAY AS MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST... RESULTING IN A
WARM/DRY WESTERLY FLOW. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER... THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IS A MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT
THAT PUSHES INTO NORTH GA BETWEEN 5-7 AM MONDAY MORNING... ACROSS
THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN TO NEAR A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BETWEEN 4-6 PM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS AGREE ON THE GREATER
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT WHILE IT
PUSHES THROUGH A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT... WITH
EXPECTED MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE DURING THE HOT
MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME... IT APPEARS A 40-50 KT MID
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT... SPC HAS POSTED A SLIGHT RISK AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. EXPECT THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 9-10 PM MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE FRONT... EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS AS A COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS
SPREADS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS... HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST AND A HOT/DRY
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS TODAY WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MOST
AREAS... BUT NO RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN. THE WARM
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL HAVE TROUBLE COOLING OVERNIGHT... WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW MAX LOW TEMPS BEING BROKEN TONIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL HELP HOLD HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GA ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER... DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL GA WILL BE ALLOWED
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 90S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

39

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER
LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
IN ACROSS THE AREA DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND
LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY
THU/FRI WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-28

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     75 1977     77 1936     59 1911
                            1926
   KATL     101 1952     69 1977     77 1981     62 1911
   KCSG     100 1993     81 1977     77 2010     67 1954
                1952
   KMCN     101 1993     76 1977     77 1958     62 1911
                1952                    1936

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT MID LEVEL CU
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST WILL HINDER ANY CONVECTIVE
THREAT TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH GA TONIGHT... THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 15-17Z MONDAY. ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL CIGS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 09-12Z
MONDAY...WITH SCT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WARRANTING A PROB30 -SHRA
15Z-18Z MONDAY... WITH LITTLE TSRA THREAT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12KTS BY MID-LATE THIS MORNING
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THRU THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WSW WINDS 6-8KTS
TONIGHT...THEN WINDS SHIFT NW AROUND 10-12KTS BETWEEN 15-17Z MONDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FROPA ON MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          96  74  92  66 /  10  20  30   5
ATLANTA         93  76  90  67 /  10  20  30   5
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  82  58 /  20  30  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    93  73  89  64 /  10  30  20   5
COLUMBUS        96  77  94  69 /  10  10  40  10
GAINESVILLE     92  74  88  66 /  10  20  30  10
MACON           96  75  95  67 /  10  10  30  10
ROME            93  73  89  65 /  10  30  20   5
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  91  65 /  10  10  30   5
VIDALIA         97  78  96  72 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 271207
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
807 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. UPDATED TO RAISE POPS FOR THAT AREA IN THE NEAR
TERM. ALSO...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ASSOCIATED WITH
UPSTREAM MCS NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL SPREAD DOWN INTO OUR
REGION THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS...AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS
TODAY SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST
RUNS ALSO INDICATING THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH DRIER THAT
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE
COAST...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL GENERALLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXTREMELY MILD READINGS FORECAST TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL
EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. FOR MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW
EXPECT PASSAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 90S. BEHIND
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM THINKING AND FORECAST.  THE
MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SURFACE
TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE IN TO KEEP MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORT MAX/MCS WILL
REMAIN WELL NE OF THE TERMINALS. ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR FA TODAY
STILL GENERALLY DRY...SO EXPECTING MINIMAL IF ANY CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...SO NO FOG ISSUES EXPECTED. ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY EXPECTED TO BY MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUE/WED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE COULD TIE OR BREAK A RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT
COLUMBIA. THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT FOR COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES. RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JUL 28TH AT COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES LAST SET IN 1936.

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 28TH IS
82...ALSO SET IN 1936.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 271207
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
807 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. UPDATED TO RAISE POPS FOR THAT AREA IN THE NEAR
TERM. ALSO...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ASSOCIATED WITH
UPSTREAM MCS NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL SPREAD DOWN INTO OUR
REGION THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS...AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS
TODAY SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST
RUNS ALSO INDICATING THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH DRIER THAT
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE
COAST...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL GENERALLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXTREMELY MILD READINGS FORECAST TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL
EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. FOR MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW
EXPECT PASSAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 90S. BEHIND
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM THINKING AND FORECAST.  THE
MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SURFACE
TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE IN TO KEEP MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORT MAX/MCS WILL
REMAIN WELL NE OF THE TERMINALS. ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR FA TODAY
STILL GENERALLY DRY...SO EXPECTING MINIMAL IF ANY CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...SO NO FOG ISSUES EXPECTED. ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY EXPECTED TO BY MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUE/WED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE COULD TIE OR BREAK A RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT
COLUMBIA. THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT FOR COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES. RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JUL 28TH AT COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES LAST SET IN 1936.

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 28TH IS
82...ALSO SET IN 1936.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 271207
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
807 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. UPDATED TO RAISE POPS FOR THAT AREA IN THE NEAR
TERM. ALSO...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ASSOCIATED WITH
UPSTREAM MCS NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL SPREAD DOWN INTO OUR
REGION THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS...AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS
TODAY SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST
RUNS ALSO INDICATING THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH DRIER THAT
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE
COAST...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL GENERALLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXTREMELY MILD READINGS FORECAST TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL
EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. FOR MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW
EXPECT PASSAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 90S. BEHIND
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM THINKING AND FORECAST.  THE
MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SURFACE
TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE IN TO KEEP MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORT MAX/MCS WILL
REMAIN WELL NE OF THE TERMINALS. ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR FA TODAY
STILL GENERALLY DRY...SO EXPECTING MINIMAL IF ANY CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...SO NO FOG ISSUES EXPECTED. ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY EXPECTED TO BY MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUE/WED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE COULD TIE OR BREAK A RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT
COLUMBIA. THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT FOR COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES. RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JUL 28TH AT COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES LAST SET IN 1936.

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 28TH IS
82...ALSO SET IN 1936.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 271207
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
807 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. UPDATED TO RAISE POPS FOR THAT AREA IN THE NEAR
TERM. ALSO...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ASSOCIATED WITH
UPSTREAM MCS NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL SPREAD DOWN INTO OUR
REGION THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS...AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS
TODAY SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST
RUNS ALSO INDICATING THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH DRIER THAT
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE
COAST...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL GENERALLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXTREMELY MILD READINGS FORECAST TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL
EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. FOR MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW
EXPECT PASSAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 90S. BEHIND
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM THINKING AND FORECAST.  THE
MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SURFACE
TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE IN TO KEEP MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORT MAX/MCS WILL
REMAIN WELL NE OF THE TERMINALS. ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR FA TODAY
STILL GENERALLY DRY...SO EXPECTING MINIMAL IF ANY CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...SO NO FOG ISSUES EXPECTED. ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY EXPECTED TO BY MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUE/WED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE COULD TIE OR BREAK A RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT
COLUMBIA. THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT FOR COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES. RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JUL 28TH AT COLUMBIA IS 78
DEGREES LAST SET IN 1936.

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 28TH IS
82...ALSO SET IN 1936.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 271138
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
737 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
EXPECT A RATHER QUIET...BUT HOT WEATHER DAY TODAY AS MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST... RESULTING IN A
WARM/DRY WESTERLY FLOW. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER... THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IS A MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT
THAT PUSHES INTO NORTH GA BETWEEN 5-7 AM MONDAY MORNING... ACROSS
THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN TO NEAR A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BETWEEN 4-6 PM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS AGREE ON THE GREATER
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT WHILE IT
PUSHES THROUGH A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT... WITH
EXPECTED MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE DURING THE HOT
MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME... IT APPEARS A 40-50 KT MID
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT... SPC HAS POSTED A SLIGHT RISK AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. EXPECT THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 9-10 PM MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE FRONT... EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS AS A COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS
SPREADS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS... HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST AND A HOT/DRY
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS TODAY WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MOST
AREAS... BUT NO RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN. THE WARM
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL HAVE TROUBLE COOLING OVERNIGHT... WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW MAX LOW TEMPS BEING BROKEN TONIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL HELP HOLD HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GA ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER... DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL GA WILL BE ALLOWED
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 90S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

39


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER
LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
IN ACROSS THE AREA DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND
LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY
THU/FRI WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.

01


&&

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-28

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     75 1977     77 1936     59 1911
                            1926
   KATL     101 1952     69 1977     77 1981     62 1911
   KCSG     100 1993     81 1977     77 2010     67 1954
                1952
   KMCN     101 1993     76 1977     77 1958     62 1911
                1952                    1936

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT MID LEVEL CU
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST WILL HINDER ANY CONVECTIVE
THREAT TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH GA TONIGHT... THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 15-17Z MONDAY. ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL CIGS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 09-12Z
MONDAY...WITH SCT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WARRANTING A PROB30 -SHRA
15Z-18Z MONDAY... WITH LITTLE TSRA THREAT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12KTS BY MID-LATE THIS MORNING
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THRU THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WSW WINDS 6-8KTS
TONIGHT...THEN WINDS SHIFT NW AROUND 10-12KTS BETWEEN 15-17Z MONDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FROPA ON MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          96  74  92  66 /  10  20  30   5
ATLANTA         93  76  90  67 /  10  20  30   5
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  82  58 /  20  30  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    93  73  89  64 /  10  30  20   5
COLUMBUS        96  77  94  69 /  10  10  40  10
GAINESVILLE     92  74  88  66 /  10  20  30  10
MACON           96  75  95  67 /  10  10  30  10
ROME            93  73  89  65 /  10  30  20   5
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  91  65 /  10  10  30   5
VIDALIA         97  78  96  72 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39









000
FXUS62 KFFC 271138
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
737 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
EXPECT A RATHER QUIET...BUT HOT WEATHER DAY TODAY AS MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST... RESULTING IN A
WARM/DRY WESTERLY FLOW. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER... THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IS A MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT
THAT PUSHES INTO NORTH GA BETWEEN 5-7 AM MONDAY MORNING... ACROSS
THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN TO NEAR A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BETWEEN 4-6 PM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS AGREE ON THE GREATER
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT WHILE IT
PUSHES THROUGH A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT... WITH
EXPECTED MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE DURING THE HOT
MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME... IT APPEARS A 40-50 KT MID
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT... SPC HAS POSTED A SLIGHT RISK AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. EXPECT THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 9-10 PM MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE FRONT... EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS AS A COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS
SPREADS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS... HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST AND A HOT/DRY
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS TODAY WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MOST
AREAS... BUT NO RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN. THE WARM
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL HAVE TROUBLE COOLING OVERNIGHT... WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW MAX LOW TEMPS BEING BROKEN TONIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL HELP HOLD HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GA ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER... DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL GA WILL BE ALLOWED
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 90S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

39


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER
LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
IN ACROSS THE AREA DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND
LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY
THU/FRI WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.

01


&&

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-28

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     75 1977     77 1936     59 1911
                            1926
   KATL     101 1952     69 1977     77 1981     62 1911
   KCSG     100 1993     81 1977     77 2010     67 1954
                1952
   KMCN     101 1993     76 1977     77 1958     62 1911
                1952                    1936

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT MID LEVEL CU
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST WILL HINDER ANY CONVECTIVE
THREAT TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH GA TONIGHT... THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 15-17Z MONDAY. ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL CIGS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 09-12Z
MONDAY...WITH SCT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WARRANTING A PROB30 -SHRA
15Z-18Z MONDAY... WITH LITTLE TSRA THREAT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12KTS BY MID-LATE THIS MORNING
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THRU THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WSW WINDS 6-8KTS
TONIGHT...THEN WINDS SHIFT NW AROUND 10-12KTS BETWEEN 15-17Z MONDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FROPA ON MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          96  74  92  66 /  10  20  30   5
ATLANTA         93  76  90  67 /  10  20  30   5
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  82  58 /  20  30  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    93  73  89  64 /  10  30  20   5
COLUMBUS        96  77  94  69 /  10  10  40  10
GAINESVILLE     92  74  88  66 /  10  20  30  10
MACON           96  75  95  67 /  10  10  30  10
ROME            93  73  89  65 /  10  30  20   5
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  91  65 /  10  10  30   5
VIDALIA         97  78  96  72 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39









000
FXUS62 KFFC 271138
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
737 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
EXPECT A RATHER QUIET...BUT HOT WEATHER DAY TODAY AS MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST... RESULTING IN A
WARM/DRY WESTERLY FLOW. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER... THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IS A MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT
THAT PUSHES INTO NORTH GA BETWEEN 5-7 AM MONDAY MORNING... ACROSS
THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN TO NEAR A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BETWEEN 4-6 PM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS AGREE ON THE GREATER
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT WHILE IT
PUSHES THROUGH A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT... WITH
EXPECTED MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE DURING THE HOT
MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME... IT APPEARS A 40-50 KT MID
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT... SPC HAS POSTED A SLIGHT RISK AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. EXPECT THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 9-10 PM MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE FRONT... EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS AS A COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS
SPREADS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS... HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST AND A HOT/DRY
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS TODAY WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MOST
AREAS... BUT NO RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN. THE WARM
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL HAVE TROUBLE COOLING OVERNIGHT... WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW MAX LOW TEMPS BEING BROKEN TONIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL HELP HOLD HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GA ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER... DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL GA WILL BE ALLOWED
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 90S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

39


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER
LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
IN ACROSS THE AREA DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND
LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY
THU/FRI WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.

01


&&

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-28

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     75 1977     77 1936     59 1911
                            1926
   KATL     101 1952     69 1977     77 1981     62 1911
   KCSG     100 1993     81 1977     77 2010     67 1954
                1952
   KMCN     101 1993     76 1977     77 1958     62 1911
                1952                    1936

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT MID LEVEL CU
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST WILL HINDER ANY CONVECTIVE
THREAT TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH GA TONIGHT... THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 15-17Z MONDAY. ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL CIGS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 09-12Z
MONDAY...WITH SCT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WARRANTING A PROB30 -SHRA
15Z-18Z MONDAY... WITH LITTLE TSRA THREAT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12KTS BY MID-LATE THIS MORNING
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THRU THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WSW WINDS 6-8KTS
TONIGHT...THEN WINDS SHIFT NW AROUND 10-12KTS BETWEEN 15-17Z MONDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FROPA ON MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          96  74  92  66 /  10  20  30   5
ATLANTA         93  76  90  67 /  10  20  30   5
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  82  58 /  20  30  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    93  73  89  64 /  10  30  20   5
COLUMBUS        96  77  94  69 /  10  10  40  10
GAINESVILLE     92  74  88  66 /  10  20  30  10
MACON           96  75  95  67 /  10  10  30  10
ROME            93  73  89  65 /  10  30  20   5
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  91  65 /  10  10  30   5
VIDALIA         97  78  96  72 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39









000
FXUS62 KFFC 271138
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
737 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
EXPECT A RATHER QUIET...BUT HOT WEATHER DAY TODAY AS MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST... RESULTING IN A
WARM/DRY WESTERLY FLOW. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER... THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IS A MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT
THAT PUSHES INTO NORTH GA BETWEEN 5-7 AM MONDAY MORNING... ACROSS
THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN TO NEAR A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BETWEEN 4-6 PM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS AGREE ON THE GREATER
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT WHILE IT
PUSHES THROUGH A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT... WITH
EXPECTED MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE DURING THE HOT
MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME... IT APPEARS A 40-50 KT MID
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT... SPC HAS POSTED A SLIGHT RISK AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. EXPECT THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 9-10 PM MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE FRONT... EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS AS A COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS
SPREADS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS... HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST AND A HOT/DRY
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS TODAY WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MOST
AREAS... BUT NO RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN. THE WARM
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL HAVE TROUBLE COOLING OVERNIGHT... WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW MAX LOW TEMPS BEING BROKEN TONIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL HELP HOLD HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GA ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER... DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL GA WILL BE ALLOWED
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 90S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

39


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER
LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
IN ACROSS THE AREA DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND
LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY
THU/FRI WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.

01


&&

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-28

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     75 1977     77 1936     59 1911
                            1926
   KATL     101 1952     69 1977     77 1981     62 1911
   KCSG     100 1993     81 1977     77 2010     67 1954
                1952
   KMCN     101 1993     76 1977     77 1958     62 1911
                1952                    1936

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT MID LEVEL CU
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST WILL HINDER ANY CONVECTIVE
THREAT TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH GA TONIGHT... THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 15-17Z MONDAY. ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL CIGS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 09-12Z
MONDAY...WITH SCT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WARRANTING A PROB30 -SHRA
15Z-18Z MONDAY... WITH LITTLE TSRA THREAT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12KTS BY MID-LATE THIS MORNING
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THRU THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WSW WINDS 6-8KTS
TONIGHT...THEN WINDS SHIFT NW AROUND 10-12KTS BETWEEN 15-17Z MONDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FROPA ON MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          96  74  92  66 /  10  20  30   5
ATLANTA         93  76  90  67 /  10  20  30   5
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  82  58 /  20  30  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    93  73  89  64 /  10  30  20   5
COLUMBUS        96  77  94  69 /  10  10  40  10
GAINESVILLE     92  74  88  66 /  10  20  30  10
MACON           96  75  95  67 /  10  10  30  10
ROME            93  73  89  65 /  10  30  20   5
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  91  65 /  10  10  30   5
VIDALIA         97  78  96  72 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39









000
FXUS62 KCHS 271131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A
COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...WE/LL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FLAT RIDGING ALOFT AS A
CLOSED LOW DIGS SE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A LEE SIDE TROUGH IS PREVALENT...WHILE THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS YET AGAIN FAR TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

A CROSS-SECTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FINDS AN OFFSHORE WEST/NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE VERTICAL RESULTING IN A STRONG DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OFF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS ALONG WITH AN EXPANSION OF LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPS THAT LOOK TO PEAK AROUND 22-23C
SUPPORTS AN EXTREMELY HOT DAY...MAYBE EVEN OUR HOTTEST DAY OF THE
SUMMER SO FAR FOR MANY OF US. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SYSTEMS IN THE VIRGINIA/S AND OHIO VALLEY WOULD
BE THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR TO PREVENT THE FORECAST AREA FROM
ACHIEVING MAX TEMPS SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEME.
THUS WE ARE SHOWING MID AND UPPER 90S INLAND FROM THE BARRIER
ISLANDS...WITH EVEN UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW
SPOTS OF THE SW INTERIOR OF THE CWFA COULD HIT THE CENTURY MARK!
DEW POINTS WILL MIX OUT ENOUGH INLAND WITH THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORIES...DOWN IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DURING PEAK
HEATING. THIS EQUATES TO MAX HEAT INDICES OF 105-108 DEGREES...NOT
QUITE TO OUR CRITERIA OF 110 DEGREES THIS LATE INTO THE SUMMER
SEASON FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. SHOULD TEMPS CLIMB EVEN HIGHER AND/OR
DEW POINTS NOT FALL AS LOW...ESPECIALLY IF THEY POOL IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE...THEN A HEAT ADVISORY
WOULD BECOME NECESSARY. EITHER WAY IT/LL BE HOT AND HUMID ENOUGH
WHERE OUTDOOR CAUTION IS EXTREMELY ADVISED.

A CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AROUND 5-7K FT...THERE IS EVEN LESS
MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY /WHEN WE ONLY HAD ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION/ AND A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE LFC AND LCL. THIS LOOKS
TO EASILY PREVENT SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM DEVELOPING TODAY...A RARE
OCCURRENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT...A BROAD AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL START TO CARVE OUT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...CAUSING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
INTO THE NE STATES. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE NEAR THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND THAT ALONG WITH A SPARSE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT WE/LL REMAIN RAINFREE. A BUILD
UP OF THE EXTREME DAYTIME HEAT AND THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER
NEVER FULLY DECOUPLING WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM GETTING ANY LOWER
THAN THE MID OR UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.
PLUS THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
COULD BE IN GREATER SUPPLY THAN NOW FORECAST...ANOTHER REASON FOR
IT TO BE A VERY WARM NIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO REMAIN
ABOVE 80 DEGREES! THESE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINS
FOR THE JULY 28TH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AS
THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT CAP
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LACK OF
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION
AND WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE WESTERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN MANY AREAS.
WITH THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT...THE TREMENDOUS SURFACE HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE NEAR
STORM ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND
THERMODYNAMICS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING WITH IT
30-40 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATIONS OF THE
PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HAIL CAPES ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY THERE...AS WELL AS
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED...BUT WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
STRONG. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF SHEAR...THE
MODE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND SOME COMBINATION OF
MULTICELLS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE TIME PERIOD OF
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE SAME...AS EARLY AS 4-5 PM
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
FOR BOTH THE HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT MORE THAN ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD REDUCE HEAT INDICES AND FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING WITH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS. WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY AND
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HWO MENTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MUCH COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OTHER THAN A LITTLE GROUND FOG AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 13Z...VFR
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z MONDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV DUE TO
THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MIXING TO TAP INTO 15-20 KT WINDS WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. ALTHOUGH NOT TECHNICALLY WIND SHEAR...WINDS OF
30-35 KT WILL BE OBSERVED DOWN NEAR 1-2K FT AFTER 05-06Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
BY JULY STANDARDS...SITUATED BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO THE SE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SW WINDS AVERAGING A GOOD 12-17 KT...WITH EVEN
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP SEAS UP AT 2-4
FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS AND PARTS OF AMZ350.

TONIGHT...THERE IS A FURTHER PACKING OF THE ISOBARS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERN STATES LOW INTENSIFYING AND A COLD FRONT HEADING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. IN FACT THERE IS AS MUCH AS A 3 MB SPREAD
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES.
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TOP OUT AT 25-30 KT...BUT GIVEN THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ONLY A PORTION OF THIS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE OF THE WATER. WHAT WE ANTICIPATE IS FOR SW WINDS TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE NIGHT...UP TO SOME 17-22 KT. GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH AROUND 25 KT...BUT FOR THE MOMENT THEIR FREQUENCY AND
SPATIAL COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY HOISTING THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FLAGS. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS WILL RE-ADDRESS THIS
SITUATION TO SEE IF ANY ADVISORIES WOULD BE NECESSARY. SEAS WILL
CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR SO FROM TODAY...CAPPED AT 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 271131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A
COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...WE/LL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FLAT RIDGING ALOFT AS A
CLOSED LOW DIGS SE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A LEE SIDE TROUGH IS PREVALENT...WHILE THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS YET AGAIN FAR TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

A CROSS-SECTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FINDS AN OFFSHORE WEST/NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE VERTICAL RESULTING IN A STRONG DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OFF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS ALONG WITH AN EXPANSION OF LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPS THAT LOOK TO PEAK AROUND 22-23C
SUPPORTS AN EXTREMELY HOT DAY...MAYBE EVEN OUR HOTTEST DAY OF THE
SUMMER SO FAR FOR MANY OF US. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SYSTEMS IN THE VIRGINIA/S AND OHIO VALLEY WOULD
BE THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR TO PREVENT THE FORECAST AREA FROM
ACHIEVING MAX TEMPS SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEME.
THUS WE ARE SHOWING MID AND UPPER 90S INLAND FROM THE BARRIER
ISLANDS...WITH EVEN UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW
SPOTS OF THE SW INTERIOR OF THE CWFA COULD HIT THE CENTURY MARK!
DEW POINTS WILL MIX OUT ENOUGH INLAND WITH THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORIES...DOWN IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DURING PEAK
HEATING. THIS EQUATES TO MAX HEAT INDICES OF 105-108 DEGREES...NOT
QUITE TO OUR CRITERIA OF 110 DEGREES THIS LATE INTO THE SUMMER
SEASON FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. SHOULD TEMPS CLIMB EVEN HIGHER AND/OR
DEW POINTS NOT FALL AS LOW...ESPECIALLY IF THEY POOL IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE...THEN A HEAT ADVISORY
WOULD BECOME NECESSARY. EITHER WAY IT/LL BE HOT AND HUMID ENOUGH
WHERE OUTDOOR CAUTION IS EXTREMELY ADVISED.

A CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AROUND 5-7K FT...THERE IS EVEN LESS
MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY /WHEN WE ONLY HAD ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION/ AND A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE LFC AND LCL. THIS LOOKS
TO EASILY PREVENT SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM DEVELOPING TODAY...A RARE
OCCURRENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT...A BROAD AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL START TO CARVE OUT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...CAUSING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
INTO THE NE STATES. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE NEAR THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND THAT ALONG WITH A SPARSE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT WE/LL REMAIN RAINFREE. A BUILD
UP OF THE EXTREME DAYTIME HEAT AND THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER
NEVER FULLY DECOUPLING WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM GETTING ANY LOWER
THAN THE MID OR UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.
PLUS THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
COULD BE IN GREATER SUPPLY THAN NOW FORECAST...ANOTHER REASON FOR
IT TO BE A VERY WARM NIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO REMAIN
ABOVE 80 DEGREES! THESE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINS
FOR THE JULY 28TH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AS
THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT CAP
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LACK OF
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION
AND WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE WESTERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN MANY AREAS.
WITH THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT...THE TREMENDOUS SURFACE HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE NEAR
STORM ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND
THERMODYNAMICS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING WITH IT
30-40 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATIONS OF THE
PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HAIL CAPES ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY THERE...AS WELL AS
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED...BUT WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
STRONG. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF SHEAR...THE
MODE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND SOME COMBINATION OF
MULTICELLS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE TIME PERIOD OF
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE SAME...AS EARLY AS 4-5 PM
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
FOR BOTH THE HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT MORE THAN ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD REDUCE HEAT INDICES AND FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING WITH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS. WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY AND
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HWO MENTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MUCH COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OTHER THAN A LITTLE GROUND FOG AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 13Z...VFR
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z MONDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV DUE TO
THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MIXING TO TAP INTO 15-20 KT WINDS WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. ALTHOUGH NOT TECHNICALLY WIND SHEAR...WINDS OF
30-35 KT WILL BE OBSERVED DOWN NEAR 1-2K FT AFTER 05-06Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
BY JULY STANDARDS...SITUATED BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO THE SE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SW WINDS AVERAGING A GOOD 12-17 KT...WITH EVEN
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP SEAS UP AT 2-4
FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS AND PARTS OF AMZ350.

TONIGHT...THERE IS A FURTHER PACKING OF THE ISOBARS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERN STATES LOW INTENSIFYING AND A COLD FRONT HEADING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. IN FACT THERE IS AS MUCH AS A 3 MB SPREAD
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES.
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TOP OUT AT 25-30 KT...BUT GIVEN THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ONLY A PORTION OF THIS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE OF THE WATER. WHAT WE ANTICIPATE IS FOR SW WINDS TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE NIGHT...UP TO SOME 17-22 KT. GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH AROUND 25 KT...BUT FOR THE MOMENT THEIR FREQUENCY AND
SPATIAL COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY HOISTING THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FLAGS. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS WILL RE-ADDRESS THIS
SITUATION TO SEE IF ANY ADVISORIES WOULD BE NECESSARY. SEAS WILL
CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR SO FROM TODAY...CAPPED AT 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 271056
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
656 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A
COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...WE/LL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FLAT RIDGING ALOFT AS A
CLOSED LOW DIGS SE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A LEE SIDE TROUGH IS PREVALENT...WHILE THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS YET AGAIN FAR TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

A CROSS-SECTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FINDS AN OFFSHORE WEST/NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE VERTICAL RESULTING IN A STRONG DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OFF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS ALONG WITH AN EXPANSION OF LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPS THAT LOOK TO PEAK AROUND 22-23C
SUPPORTS AN EXTREMELY HOT DAY...MAYBE EVEN OUR HOTTEST DAY OF THE
SUMMER SO FAR FOR MANY OF US. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SYSTEMS IN THE VIRGINIA/S AND OHIO VALLEY WOULD
BE THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR TO PREVENT THE FORECAST AREA FROM
ACHIEVING MAX TEMPS SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEME.
THUS WE ARE SHOWING MID AND UPPER 90S INLAND FROM THE BARRIER
ISLANDS...WITH EVEN UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW
SPOTS OF THE SW INTERIOR OF THE CWFA COULD HIT THE CENTURY MARK!
DEW POINTS WILL MIX OUT ENOUGH INLAND WITH THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORIES...DOWN IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DURING PEAK
HEATING. THIS EQUATES TO MAX HEAT INDICES OF 105-108 DEGREES...NOT
QUITE TO OUR CRITERIA OF 110 DEGREES THIS LATE INTO THE SUMMER
SEASON FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. SHOULD TEMPS CLIMB EVEN HIGHER AND/OR
DEW POINTS NOT FALL AS LOW...ESPECIALLY IF THEY POOL IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE...THEN A HEAT ADVISORY
WOULD BECOME NECESSARY. EITHER WAY IT/LL BE HOT AND HUMID ENOUGH
WHERE OUTDOOR CAUTION IS EXTREMELY ADVISED.

A CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AROUND 5-7K FT...THERE IS EVEN LESS
MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY /WHEN WE ONLY HAD ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION/ AND A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE LFC AND LCL. THIS LOOKS
TO EASILY PREVENT SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM DEVELOPING TODAY...A RARE
OCCURRENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT...A BROAD AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL START TO CARVE OUT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...CAUSING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
INTO THE NE STATES. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE NEAR THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND THAT ALONG WITH A SPARSE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT WE/LL REMAIN RAINFREE. A BUILD
UP OF THE EXTREME DAYTIME HEAT AND THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER
NEVER FULLY DECOUPLING WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM GETTING ANY LOWER
THAN THE MID OR UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.
PLUS THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
COULD BE IN GREATER SUPPLY THAN NOW FORECAST...ANOTHER REASON FOR
IT TO BE A VERY WARM NIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO REMAIN
ABOVE 80 DEGREES! THESE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINS
FOR THE JULY 28TH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AS
THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT CAP
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LACK OF
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION
AND WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE WESTERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN MANY AREAS.
WITH THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT...THE TREMENDOUS SURFACE HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE NEAR
STORM ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND
THERMODYNAMICS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING WITH IT
30-40 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATIONS OF THE
PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HAIL CAPES ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY THERE...AS WELL AS
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED...BUT WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
STRONG. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF SHEAR...THE
MODE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND SOME COMBINATION OF
MULTICELLS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE TIME PERIOD OF
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE SAME...AS EARLY AS 4-5 PM
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
FOR BOTH THE HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT MORE THAN ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD REDUCE HEAT INDICES AND FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING WITH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS. WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY AND
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HWO MENTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MUCH COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OTHER THAN A LITTLE GROUND FOG AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 13Z...VFR
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z MONDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV DUE TO
THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES
HELP TO ENHANCE SPEEDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
BY JULY STANDARDS...SITUATED BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO THE SE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SW WINDS AVERAGING A GOOD 12-17 KT...WITH EVEN
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP SEAS UP AT 2-4
FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS AND PARTS OF AMZ350.

TONIGHT...THERE IS A FURTHER PACKING OF THE ISOBARS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERN STATES LOW INTENSIFYING AND A COLD FRONT HEADING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. IN FACT THERE IS AS MUCH AS A 3 MB SPREAD
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SW WINDS TO CLIMB EVEN HIGHER...UP TO SOME 16-21 KT.
GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH AROUND 25 KT...BUT FOR THE MOMENT
THEIR FREQUENCY AND SPATIAL COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
HOISTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS. SEAS WILL CLIMB ANOTHER
FOOT OR SO FROM TODAY...CAPPED AT 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 271056
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
656 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A
COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...WE/LL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FLAT RIDGING ALOFT AS A
CLOSED LOW DIGS SE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A LEE SIDE TROUGH IS PREVALENT...WHILE THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS YET AGAIN FAR TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

A CROSS-SECTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FINDS AN OFFSHORE WEST/NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE VERTICAL RESULTING IN A STRONG DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OFF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS ALONG WITH AN EXPANSION OF LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPS THAT LOOK TO PEAK AROUND 22-23C
SUPPORTS AN EXTREMELY HOT DAY...MAYBE EVEN OUR HOTTEST DAY OF THE
SUMMER SO FAR FOR MANY OF US. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SYSTEMS IN THE VIRGINIA/S AND OHIO VALLEY WOULD
BE THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR TO PREVENT THE FORECAST AREA FROM
ACHIEVING MAX TEMPS SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEME.
THUS WE ARE SHOWING MID AND UPPER 90S INLAND FROM THE BARRIER
ISLANDS...WITH EVEN UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW
SPOTS OF THE SW INTERIOR OF THE CWFA COULD HIT THE CENTURY MARK!
DEW POINTS WILL MIX OUT ENOUGH INLAND WITH THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORIES...DOWN IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DURING PEAK
HEATING. THIS EQUATES TO MAX HEAT INDICES OF 105-108 DEGREES...NOT
QUITE TO OUR CRITERIA OF 110 DEGREES THIS LATE INTO THE SUMMER
SEASON FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. SHOULD TEMPS CLIMB EVEN HIGHER AND/OR
DEW POINTS NOT FALL AS LOW...ESPECIALLY IF THEY POOL IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE...THEN A HEAT ADVISORY
WOULD BECOME NECESSARY. EITHER WAY IT/LL BE HOT AND HUMID ENOUGH
WHERE OUTDOOR CAUTION IS EXTREMELY ADVISED.

A CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AROUND 5-7K FT...THERE IS EVEN LESS
MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY /WHEN WE ONLY HAD ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION/ AND A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE LFC AND LCL. THIS LOOKS
TO EASILY PREVENT SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM DEVELOPING TODAY...A RARE
OCCURRENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT...A BROAD AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL START TO CARVE OUT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...CAUSING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
INTO THE NE STATES. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE NEAR THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND THAT ALONG WITH A SPARSE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT WE/LL REMAIN RAINFREE. A BUILD
UP OF THE EXTREME DAYTIME HEAT AND THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER
NEVER FULLY DECOUPLING WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM GETTING ANY LOWER
THAN THE MID OR UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.
PLUS THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
COULD BE IN GREATER SUPPLY THAN NOW FORECAST...ANOTHER REASON FOR
IT TO BE A VERY WARM NIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO REMAIN
ABOVE 80 DEGREES! THESE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINS
FOR THE JULY 28TH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AS
THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT CAP
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LACK OF
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION
AND WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE WESTERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN MANY AREAS.
WITH THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT...THE TREMENDOUS SURFACE HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE NEAR
STORM ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND
THERMODYNAMICS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING WITH IT
30-40 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATIONS OF THE
PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HAIL CAPES ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY THERE...AS WELL AS
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED...BUT WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
STRONG. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF SHEAR...THE
MODE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND SOME COMBINATION OF
MULTICELLS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE TIME PERIOD OF
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE SAME...AS EARLY AS 4-5 PM
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
FOR BOTH THE HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT MORE THAN ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD REDUCE HEAT INDICES AND FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING WITH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS. WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY AND
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HWO MENTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MUCH COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OTHER THAN A LITTLE GROUND FOG AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 13Z...VFR
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z MONDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV DUE TO
THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES
HELP TO ENHANCE SPEEDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
BY JULY STANDARDS...SITUATED BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO THE SE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SW WINDS AVERAGING A GOOD 12-17 KT...WITH EVEN
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP SEAS UP AT 2-4
FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS AND PARTS OF AMZ350.

TONIGHT...THERE IS A FURTHER PACKING OF THE ISOBARS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERN STATES LOW INTENSIFYING AND A COLD FRONT HEADING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. IN FACT THERE IS AS MUCH AS A 3 MB SPREAD
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SW WINDS TO CLIMB EVEN HIGHER...UP TO SOME 16-21 KT.
GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH AROUND 25 KT...BUT FOR THE MOMENT
THEIR FREQUENCY AND SPATIAL COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
HOISTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS. SEAS WILL CLIMB ANOTHER
FOOT OR SO FROM TODAY...CAPPED AT 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 271056
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
656 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A
COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...WE/LL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FLAT RIDGING ALOFT AS A
CLOSED LOW DIGS SE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A LEE SIDE TROUGH IS PREVALENT...WHILE THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS YET AGAIN FAR TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

A CROSS-SECTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FINDS AN OFFSHORE WEST/NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE VERTICAL RESULTING IN A STRONG DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OFF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS ALONG WITH AN EXPANSION OF LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPS THAT LOOK TO PEAK AROUND 22-23C
SUPPORTS AN EXTREMELY HOT DAY...MAYBE EVEN OUR HOTTEST DAY OF THE
SUMMER SO FAR FOR MANY OF US. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SYSTEMS IN THE VIRGINIA/S AND OHIO VALLEY WOULD
BE THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR TO PREVENT THE FORECAST AREA FROM
ACHIEVING MAX TEMPS SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEME.
THUS WE ARE SHOWING MID AND UPPER 90S INLAND FROM THE BARRIER
ISLANDS...WITH EVEN UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW
SPOTS OF THE SW INTERIOR OF THE CWFA COULD HIT THE CENTURY MARK!
DEW POINTS WILL MIX OUT ENOUGH INLAND WITH THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORIES...DOWN IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DURING PEAK
HEATING. THIS EQUATES TO MAX HEAT INDICES OF 105-108 DEGREES...NOT
QUITE TO OUR CRITERIA OF 110 DEGREES THIS LATE INTO THE SUMMER
SEASON FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. SHOULD TEMPS CLIMB EVEN HIGHER AND/OR
DEW POINTS NOT FALL AS LOW...ESPECIALLY IF THEY POOL IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE...THEN A HEAT ADVISORY
WOULD BECOME NECESSARY. EITHER WAY IT/LL BE HOT AND HUMID ENOUGH
WHERE OUTDOOR CAUTION IS EXTREMELY ADVISED.

A CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AROUND 5-7K FT...THERE IS EVEN LESS
MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY /WHEN WE ONLY HAD ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION/ AND A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE LFC AND LCL. THIS LOOKS
TO EASILY PREVENT SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM DEVELOPING TODAY...A RARE
OCCURRENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT...A BROAD AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL START TO CARVE OUT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...CAUSING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
INTO THE NE STATES. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE NEAR THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND THAT ALONG WITH A SPARSE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT WE/LL REMAIN RAINFREE. A BUILD
UP OF THE EXTREME DAYTIME HEAT AND THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER
NEVER FULLY DECOUPLING WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM GETTING ANY LOWER
THAN THE MID OR UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.
PLUS THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
COULD BE IN GREATER SUPPLY THAN NOW FORECAST...ANOTHER REASON FOR
IT TO BE A VERY WARM NIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO REMAIN
ABOVE 80 DEGREES! THESE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINS
FOR THE JULY 28TH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AS
THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT CAP
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LACK OF
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION
AND WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE WESTERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN MANY AREAS.
WITH THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT...THE TREMENDOUS SURFACE HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE NEAR
STORM ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND
THERMODYNAMICS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING WITH IT
30-40 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATIONS OF THE
PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HAIL CAPES ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY THERE...AS WELL AS
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED...BUT WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
STRONG. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF SHEAR...THE
MODE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND SOME COMBINATION OF
MULTICELLS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE TIME PERIOD OF
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE SAME...AS EARLY AS 4-5 PM
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
FOR BOTH THE HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT MORE THAN ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD REDUCE HEAT INDICES AND FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING WITH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS. WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY AND
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HWO MENTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MUCH COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OTHER THAN A LITTLE GROUND FOG AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 13Z...VFR
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z MONDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV DUE TO
THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES
HELP TO ENHANCE SPEEDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
BY JULY STANDARDS...SITUATED BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO THE SE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SW WINDS AVERAGING A GOOD 12-17 KT...WITH EVEN
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP SEAS UP AT 2-4
FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS AND PARTS OF AMZ350.

TONIGHT...THERE IS A FURTHER PACKING OF THE ISOBARS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERN STATES LOW INTENSIFYING AND A COLD FRONT HEADING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. IN FACT THERE IS AS MUCH AS A 3 MB SPREAD
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SW WINDS TO CLIMB EVEN HIGHER...UP TO SOME 16-21 KT.
GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH AROUND 25 KT...BUT FOR THE MOMENT
THEIR FREQUENCY AND SPATIAL COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
HOISTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS. SEAS WILL CLIMB ANOTHER
FOOT OR SO FROM TODAY...CAPPED AT 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 271056
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
656 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A
COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...WE/LL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FLAT RIDGING ALOFT AS A
CLOSED LOW DIGS SE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A LEE SIDE TROUGH IS PREVALENT...WHILE THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS YET AGAIN FAR TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

A CROSS-SECTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FINDS AN OFFSHORE WEST/NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE VERTICAL RESULTING IN A STRONG DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OFF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS ALONG WITH AN EXPANSION OF LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPS THAT LOOK TO PEAK AROUND 22-23C
SUPPORTS AN EXTREMELY HOT DAY...MAYBE EVEN OUR HOTTEST DAY OF THE
SUMMER SO FAR FOR MANY OF US. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SYSTEMS IN THE VIRGINIA/S AND OHIO VALLEY WOULD
BE THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR TO PREVENT THE FORECAST AREA FROM
ACHIEVING MAX TEMPS SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEME.
THUS WE ARE SHOWING MID AND UPPER 90S INLAND FROM THE BARRIER
ISLANDS...WITH EVEN UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW
SPOTS OF THE SW INTERIOR OF THE CWFA COULD HIT THE CENTURY MARK!
DEW POINTS WILL MIX OUT ENOUGH INLAND WITH THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORIES...DOWN IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DURING PEAK
HEATING. THIS EQUATES TO MAX HEAT INDICES OF 105-108 DEGREES...NOT
QUITE TO OUR CRITERIA OF 110 DEGREES THIS LATE INTO THE SUMMER
SEASON FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. SHOULD TEMPS CLIMB EVEN HIGHER AND/OR
DEW POINTS NOT FALL AS LOW...ESPECIALLY IF THEY POOL IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE...THEN A HEAT ADVISORY
WOULD BECOME NECESSARY. EITHER WAY IT/LL BE HOT AND HUMID ENOUGH
WHERE OUTDOOR CAUTION IS EXTREMELY ADVISED.

A CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AROUND 5-7K FT...THERE IS EVEN LESS
MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY /WHEN WE ONLY HAD ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION/ AND A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE LFC AND LCL. THIS LOOKS
TO EASILY PREVENT SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM DEVELOPING TODAY...A RARE
OCCURRENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT...A BROAD AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL START TO CARVE OUT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...CAUSING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
INTO THE NE STATES. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE NEAR THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND THAT ALONG WITH A SPARSE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT WE/LL REMAIN RAINFREE. A BUILD
UP OF THE EXTREME DAYTIME HEAT AND THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER
NEVER FULLY DECOUPLING WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM GETTING ANY LOWER
THAN THE MID OR UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.
PLUS THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
COULD BE IN GREATER SUPPLY THAN NOW FORECAST...ANOTHER REASON FOR
IT TO BE A VERY WARM NIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO REMAIN
ABOVE 80 DEGREES! THESE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINS
FOR THE JULY 28TH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AS
THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT CAP
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LACK OF
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION
AND WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE WESTERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN MANY AREAS.
WITH THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT...THE TREMENDOUS SURFACE HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE NEAR
STORM ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND
THERMODYNAMICS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING WITH IT
30-40 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATIONS OF THE
PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HAIL CAPES ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY THERE...AS WELL AS
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED...BUT WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
STRONG. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF SHEAR...THE
MODE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND SOME COMBINATION OF
MULTICELLS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE TIME PERIOD OF
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE SAME...AS EARLY AS 4-5 PM
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
FOR BOTH THE HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT MORE THAN ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD REDUCE HEAT INDICES AND FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING WITH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS. WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY AND
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HWO MENTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MUCH COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OTHER THAN A LITTLE GROUND FOG AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 13Z...VFR
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z MONDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV DUE TO
THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES
HELP TO ENHANCE SPEEDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
BY JULY STANDARDS...SITUATED BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO THE SE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SW WINDS AVERAGING A GOOD 12-17 KT...WITH EVEN
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP SEAS UP AT 2-4
FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS AND PARTS OF AMZ350.

TONIGHT...THERE IS A FURTHER PACKING OF THE ISOBARS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERN STATES LOW INTENSIFYING AND A COLD FRONT HEADING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. IN FACT THERE IS AS MUCH AS A 3 MB SPREAD
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SW WINDS TO CLIMB EVEN HIGHER...UP TO SOME 16-21 KT.
GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH AROUND 25 KT...BUT FOR THE MOMENT
THEIR FREQUENCY AND SPATIAL COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
HOISTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS. SEAS WILL CLIMB ANOTHER
FOOT OR SO FROM TODAY...CAPPED AT 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 271034
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
634 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTMAX MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IS MOVING EAST OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. BULK OF THIS ENERGY WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IT
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE SC MOUNTAINS AND
DOWNSLOPES. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS
THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING.

TODAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL COME UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AS A STRONG DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES TOWARDS
THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...BUT WITH MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON...SOME OF THE
GUSTY DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALOFT SHOULD REACH THE SURFACE. THIS WILL
HELP WARM TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 90S...OR AROUND 100...BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...RH VALUES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON TO KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES FROM RISING ABOVE 105.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST
RUNS ALSO INDICATING THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH DRIER THAT
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE
COAST...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL GENERALLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXTREMELY MILD READINGS FORECAST TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL
EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. FOR MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW
EXPECT PASSAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 90S. BEHIND
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM THINKING AND FORECAST.  THE
MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SURFACE
TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE IN TO KEEP MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP A MENTION OF A TEMPO GROUP FOR FOG AT BOTH AGS/OGB FOR THIS
MORNING. VFR SUNDAY...CONTINUED GENERALLY DRY. IT WILL BE LITTLE
MORE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS. TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING
A 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MINIMAL IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED
SUNDAY. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY WITH APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
AT COLUMBIA...103 IN 1949
AT AUGUSTA...102 IN 1936

WE COULD TIE OR BREAK A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT COLUMBIA.
THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT FOR COLUMBIA IS 78 DEGREES.
RECORD HIGH LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT COLUMBIA IS 78 DEGREES LAST SET
IN 1936 (WHEN OBSERVATIONS WERE TAKEN IN DOWNTOWN COLUMBIA)

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH LOW TEMPERATURE IS 82 IN 1936 (WHEN
OBSERVATIONS WERE TAKEN IN DOWNTOWN AUGUSTA)

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 271034
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
634 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTMAX MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IS MOVING EAST OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. BULK OF THIS ENERGY WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IT
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE SC MOUNTAINS AND
DOWNSLOPES. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS
THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING.

TODAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL COME UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AS A STRONG DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES TOWARDS
THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...BUT WITH MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON...SOME OF THE
GUSTY DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALOFT SHOULD REACH THE SURFACE. THIS WILL
HELP WARM TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 90S...OR AROUND 100...BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...RH VALUES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON TO KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES FROM RISING ABOVE 105.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST
RUNS ALSO INDICATING THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH DRIER THAT
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE
COAST...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL GENERALLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXTREMELY MILD READINGS FORECAST TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL
EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. FOR MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW
EXPECT PASSAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 90S. BEHIND
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM THINKING AND FORECAST.  THE
MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SURFACE
TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE IN TO KEEP MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP A MENTION OF A TEMPO GROUP FOR FOG AT BOTH AGS/OGB FOR THIS
MORNING. VFR SUNDAY...CONTINUED GENERALLY DRY. IT WILL BE LITTLE
MORE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS. TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING
A 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MINIMAL IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED
SUNDAY. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY WITH APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
AT COLUMBIA...103 IN 1949
AT AUGUSTA...102 IN 1936

WE COULD TIE OR BREAK A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT COLUMBIA.
THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT FOR COLUMBIA IS 78 DEGREES.
RECORD HIGH LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT COLUMBIA IS 78 DEGREES LAST SET
IN 1936 (WHEN OBSERVATIONS WERE TAKEN IN DOWNTOWN COLUMBIA)

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH LOW TEMPERATURE IS 82 IN 1936 (WHEN
OBSERVATIONS WERE TAKEN IN DOWNTOWN AUGUSTA)

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KFFC 270814
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
414 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT A RATHER QUIET...BUT HOT WEATHER DAY TODAY AS MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST... RESULTING IN A
WARM/DRY WESTERLY FLOW. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER... THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IS A MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT
THAT PUSHES INTO NORTH GA BETWEEN 5-7 AM MONDAY MORNING... ACROSS
THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN TO NEAR A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BETWEEN 4-6 PM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS AGREE ON THE GREATER
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT WHILE IT
PUSHES THROUGH A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT... WITH
EXPECTED MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE DURING THE HOT
MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME... IT APPEARS A 40-50 KT MID
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT... SPC HAS POSTED A SLIGHT RISK AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. EXPECT THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 9-10 PM MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE FRONT... EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS AS A COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS
SPREADS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS... HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST AND A HOT/DRY
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS TODAY WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MOST
AREAS... BUT NO RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN. THE WARM
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL HAVE TROUBLE COOLING OVERNIGHT... WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW MAX LOW TEMPS BEING BROKEN TONIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL HELP HOLD HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GA ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER... DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL GA WILL BE ALLOWED
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 90S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

39


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER
LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
IN ACROSS THE AREA DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND
LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY
THU/FRI WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.

01


&&

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-28

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     75 1977     77 1936     59 1911
                            1926
   KATL     101 1952     69 1977     77 1981     62 1911
   KCSG     100 1993     81 1977     77 2010     67 1954
                1952
   KMCN     101 1993     76 1977     77 1958     62 1911
                1952                    1936

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD... DESPITE A FEW
BRIEF PATCHES OF 4-6SM BR AROUND THIS MORNING. SCT MID LEVEL CU WILL
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCE AND A DRIER AIR MASS WILL GREATLY HINDER ANY
CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTH GA LATE
TONIGHT... SO COULD SEE SOME MID LEVEL CIGS SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND
OVER THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 09-12Z MON. LIGHT WEST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12KTS BY LATE MORNING WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THRU THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WSW WINDS 6-8KTS TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          96  74  92  66 /  10  20  30   5
ATLANTA         93  76  90  67 /  10  20  30   5
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  82  58 /  20  30  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    93  73  89  64 /  10  30  20   5
COLUMBUS        96  77  94  69 /  10  10  40  10
GAINESVILLE     92  74  88  66 /  10  20  30  10
MACON           96  75  95  67 /  10  10  30  10
ROME            93  73  89  65 /  10  30  20   5
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  91  65 /  10  10  30   5
VIDALIA         97  78  96  72 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39






000
FXUS62 KFFC 270814
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
414 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT A RATHER QUIET...BUT HOT WEATHER DAY TODAY AS MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST... RESULTING IN A
WARM/DRY WESTERLY FLOW. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER... THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IS A MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT
THAT PUSHES INTO NORTH GA BETWEEN 5-7 AM MONDAY MORNING... ACROSS
THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN TO NEAR A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BETWEEN 4-6 PM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS AGREE ON THE GREATER
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT WHILE IT
PUSHES THROUGH A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT... WITH
EXPECTED MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE DURING THE HOT
MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME... IT APPEARS A 40-50 KT MID
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT... SPC HAS POSTED A SLIGHT RISK AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. EXPECT THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 9-10 PM MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. BEHIND
THE FRONT... EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS AS A COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS
SPREADS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS... HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST AND A HOT/DRY
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS TODAY WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MOST
AREAS... BUT NO RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN. THE WARM
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL HAVE TROUBLE COOLING OVERNIGHT... WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW MAX LOW TEMPS BEING BROKEN TONIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL HELP HOLD HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GA ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER... DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL GA WILL BE ALLOWED
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 90S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

39


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AFFECTS THE STATE MONDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE USHERS IN A AN UPPER
LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WED/THU. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
IN ACROSS THE AREA DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND
LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY
THU/FRI WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THEN.

01


&&

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-28

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     75 1977     77 1936     59 1911
                            1926
   KATL     101 1952     69 1977     77 1981     62 1911
   KCSG     100 1993     81 1977     77 2010     67 1954
                1952
   KMCN     101 1993     76 1977     77 1958     62 1911
                1952                    1936

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD... DESPITE A FEW
BRIEF PATCHES OF 4-6SM BR AROUND THIS MORNING. SCT MID LEVEL CU WILL
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCE AND A DRIER AIR MASS WILL GREATLY HINDER ANY
CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTH GA LATE
TONIGHT... SO COULD SEE SOME MID LEVEL CIGS SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND
OVER THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 09-12Z MON. LIGHT WEST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12KTS BY LATE MORNING WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THRU THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WSW WINDS 6-8KTS TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          96  74  92  66 /  10  20  30   5
ATLANTA         93  76  90  67 /  10  20  30   5
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  82  58 /  20  30  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    93  73  89  64 /  10  30  20   5
COLUMBUS        96  77  94  69 /  10  10  40  10
GAINESVILLE     92  74  88  66 /  10  20  30  10
MACON           96  75  95  67 /  10  10  30  10
ROME            93  73  89  65 /  10  30  20   5
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  91  65 /  10  10  30   5
VIDALIA         97  78  96  72 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39





000
FXUS62 KCHS 270803
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
403 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A
COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...IT/S AN EXTREMELY WARM AND MUGGY START TO
THE DAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID OR UPPER 70S IF NOT HIGHER...AND
SIMILAR DEW POINT VALUES. LIGHT FOG WILL BE AROUND...BUT WITH
VISIBILITIES NO LOWER THAN 2-3 MILES THIS DOES NOT WARRANT ADDING
TO THE FORECAST. WE COULD FLIRT WITH THE RECORD HIGH MINS AT
CHARLESTON /79 SET IN 2005/ AND IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON /82 SET IN
2005/.

TODAY...WE/LL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FLAT RIDGING ALOFT AS A
CLOSED LOW DIGS SE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A LEE SIDE TROUGH IS PREVALENT...WHILE THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS YET AGAIN FAR TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

A CROSS-SECTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FINDS AN OFFSHORE WEST/NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE VERTICAL RESULTING IN A STRONG DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OFF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS ALONG WITH AN EXPANSION OF LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPS THAT LOOK TO PEAK AROUND 22-23C
SUPPORTS AN EXTREMELY HOT DAY...MAYBE EVEN OUR HOTTEST DAY OF THE
SUMMER SO FAR FOR MANY OF US. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN THE VIRGINIA/S AND KENTUCKY EARLY THIS
MORNING WOULD BE THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR FROM THE FORECAST AREA
ACHIEVING MAX TEMPS SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEME.
THUS WE ARE SHOWING 95-100 INLAND FROM THE BARRIER ISLANDS...WITH
EVEN UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES. DEW POINTS WILL MIX
OUT ENOUGH INLAND WITH THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORIES...DOWN IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS EQUATES TO MAX
HEAT INDICES OF 105-108 DEGREES...NOT QUITE TO OUR CRITERIA OF 110
DEGREES THIS LATE INTO THE SUMMER SEASON FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.
SHOULD TEMPS CLIMB EVEN HIGHER AND/OR DEW POINTS NOT FALL AS
LOW...ESPECIALLY IF THEY POOL IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RESULTANT
SEA BREEZE...THEN A HEAT ADVISORY WOULD BECOME NECESSARY. EITHER
WAY IT/LL BE HOT AND HUMID ENOUGH WHERE OUTDOOR CAUTION IS
EXTREMELY ADVISED.

A CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AROUND 5-7K FT...THERE IS EVEN LESS
MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY /WHEN WE ONLY HAD ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION/ AND A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE LFC AND LCL. THIS LOOKS
TO EASILY PREVENT SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM DEVELOPING TODAY...A RARE
OCCURRENCES THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT...A BROAD AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL START TO CARVE OUT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...CAUSING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
INTO THE NE STATES. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE NEAR THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND THAT ALONG WITH A SPARSE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT WE/LL REMAIN RAINFREE. A BUILD
UP OF DAYTIME HEAT AND THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER NEVER FULLY
DECOUPLING WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM GETTING ANY LOWER THAN THE MID
OR UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. WE/LL BE CLOSE
TO RECORD HIGH MINS WITH READINGS SUCH AS THIS...CHARLESTON
AIRPORT OF 79 SET IN 1981...DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WITH 83 SET IN
1999 AND THE SAVANNAH AIRPORT WITH 81 SET IN 1878. PLUS THERE IS
THE CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD BE IN
GREATER SUPPLY THAN NOW FORECAST...ANOTHER REASON FOR IT TO BE A
VERY WARM NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AS
THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT CAP
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LACK OF
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION
AND WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE WESTERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN MANY AREAS.
WITH THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT...THE TREMENDOUS SURFACE HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE NEAR
STORM ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND
THERMODYNAMICS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING WITH IT
30-40 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATIONS OF THE
PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HAIL CAPES ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY THERE...AS WELL AS
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED...BUT WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
STRONG. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF SHEAR...THE
MODE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND SOME COMBINATION OF
MULTICELLS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE TIME PERIOD OF
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE SAME...AS EARLY AS 4-5 PM
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
FOR BOTH THE HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT MORE THAN ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD REDUCE HEAT INDICES AND FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING WITH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS. WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY AND
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HWO MENTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MUCH COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE GROUND FOG AT THE TERMINALS FROM ABOUT
09-13Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF
CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...MOST
ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES HELP TO ENHANCE
SPEEDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
BY JULY STANDARDS...SITUATED BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO THE SE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SW WINDS AVERAGING A GOOD 12-17 KT...WITH EVEN
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP SEAS UP AT 2-4
FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS AND PARTS OF AMZ350.

TONIGHT...THERE IS A FURTHER PACKING OF THE ISOBARS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERN STATES LOW INTENSIFYING AND A COLD FRONT HEADING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. IN FACT THERE IS AS MUCH AS A 3 MB SPREAD
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SW WINDS TO CLIMB EVEN HIGHER...UP TO SOME 16-21 KT.
GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH AROUND 25 KT...BUT FOR THE MOMENT
THEIR FREQUENCY AND SPATIAL COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
HOISTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS. SEAS WILL CLIMB ANOTHER
FOOT OR SO FROM TODAY...CAPPED AT 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 270803
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
403 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A
COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...IT/S AN EXTREMELY WARM AND MUGGY START TO
THE DAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID OR UPPER 70S IF NOT HIGHER...AND
SIMILAR DEW POINT VALUES. LIGHT FOG WILL BE AROUND...BUT WITH
VISIBILITIES NO LOWER THAN 2-3 MILES THIS DOES NOT WARRANT ADDING
TO THE FORECAST. WE COULD FLIRT WITH THE RECORD HIGH MINS AT
CHARLESTON /79 SET IN 2005/ AND IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON /82 SET IN
2005/.

TODAY...WE/LL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FLAT RIDGING ALOFT AS A
CLOSED LOW DIGS SE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A LEE SIDE TROUGH IS PREVALENT...WHILE THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS YET AGAIN FAR TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

A CROSS-SECTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FINDS AN OFFSHORE WEST/NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE VERTICAL RESULTING IN A STRONG DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OFF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS ALONG WITH AN EXPANSION OF LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPS THAT LOOK TO PEAK AROUND 22-23C
SUPPORTS AN EXTREMELY HOT DAY...MAYBE EVEN OUR HOTTEST DAY OF THE
SUMMER SO FAR FOR MANY OF US. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN THE VIRGINIA/S AND KENTUCKY EARLY THIS
MORNING WOULD BE THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR FROM THE FORECAST AREA
ACHIEVING MAX TEMPS SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEME.
THUS WE ARE SHOWING 95-100 INLAND FROM THE BARRIER ISLANDS...WITH
EVEN UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES. DEW POINTS WILL MIX
OUT ENOUGH INLAND WITH THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORIES...DOWN IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS EQUATES TO MAX
HEAT INDICES OF 105-108 DEGREES...NOT QUITE TO OUR CRITERIA OF 110
DEGREES THIS LATE INTO THE SUMMER SEASON FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.
SHOULD TEMPS CLIMB EVEN HIGHER AND/OR DEW POINTS NOT FALL AS
LOW...ESPECIALLY IF THEY POOL IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RESULTANT
SEA BREEZE...THEN A HEAT ADVISORY WOULD BECOME NECESSARY. EITHER
WAY IT/LL BE HOT AND HUMID ENOUGH WHERE OUTDOOR CAUTION IS
EXTREMELY ADVISED.

A CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AROUND 5-7K FT...THERE IS EVEN LESS
MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY /WHEN WE ONLY HAD ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION/ AND A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE LFC AND LCL. THIS LOOKS
TO EASILY PREVENT SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM DEVELOPING TODAY...A RARE
OCCURRENCES THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT...A BROAD AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL START TO CARVE OUT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...CAUSING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
INTO THE NE STATES. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE NEAR THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND THAT ALONG WITH A SPARSE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT WE/LL REMAIN RAINFREE. A BUILD
UP OF DAYTIME HEAT AND THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER NEVER FULLY
DECOUPLING WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM GETTING ANY LOWER THAN THE MID
OR UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. WE/LL BE CLOSE
TO RECORD HIGH MINS WITH READINGS SUCH AS THIS...CHARLESTON
AIRPORT OF 79 SET IN 1981...DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WITH 83 SET IN
1999 AND THE SAVANNAH AIRPORT WITH 81 SET IN 1878. PLUS THERE IS
THE CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD BE IN
GREATER SUPPLY THAN NOW FORECAST...ANOTHER REASON FOR IT TO BE A
VERY WARM NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AS
THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT CAP
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LACK OF
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION
AND WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE WESTERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN MANY AREAS.
WITH THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT...THE TREMENDOUS SURFACE HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE NEAR
STORM ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND
THERMODYNAMICS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING WITH IT
30-40 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATIONS OF THE
PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HAIL CAPES ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY THERE...AS WELL AS
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED...BUT WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
STRONG. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF SHEAR...THE
MODE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND SOME COMBINATION OF
MULTICELLS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE TIME PERIOD OF
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE SAME...AS EARLY AS 4-5 PM
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
FOR BOTH THE HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT MORE THAN ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD REDUCE HEAT INDICES AND FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING WITH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS. WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY AND
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HWO MENTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MUCH COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE GROUND FOG AT THE TERMINALS FROM ABOUT
09-13Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF
CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...MOST
ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES HELP TO ENHANCE
SPEEDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
BY JULY STANDARDS...SITUATED BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO THE SE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SW WINDS AVERAGING A GOOD 12-17 KT...WITH EVEN
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP SEAS UP AT 2-4
FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS AND PARTS OF AMZ350.

TONIGHT...THERE IS A FURTHER PACKING OF THE ISOBARS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERN STATES LOW INTENSIFYING AND A COLD FRONT HEADING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. IN FACT THERE IS AS MUCH AS A 3 MB SPREAD
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SW WINDS TO CLIMB EVEN HIGHER...UP TO SOME 16-21 KT.
GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH AROUND 25 KT...BUT FOR THE MOMENT
THEIR FREQUENCY AND SPATIAL COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
HOISTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS. SEAS WILL CLIMB ANOTHER
FOOT OR SO FROM TODAY...CAPPED AT 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 270803
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
403 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A
COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...IT/S AN EXTREMELY WARM AND MUGGY START TO
THE DAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID OR UPPER 70S IF NOT HIGHER...AND
SIMILAR DEW POINT VALUES. LIGHT FOG WILL BE AROUND...BUT WITH
VISIBILITIES NO LOWER THAN 2-3 MILES THIS DOES NOT WARRANT ADDING
TO THE FORECAST. WE COULD FLIRT WITH THE RECORD HIGH MINS AT
CHARLESTON /79 SET IN 2005/ AND IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON /82 SET IN
2005/.

TODAY...WE/LL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FLAT RIDGING ALOFT AS A
CLOSED LOW DIGS SE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A LEE SIDE TROUGH IS PREVALENT...WHILE THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS YET AGAIN FAR TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

A CROSS-SECTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FINDS AN OFFSHORE WEST/NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE VERTICAL RESULTING IN A STRONG DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OFF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS ALONG WITH AN EXPANSION OF LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPS THAT LOOK TO PEAK AROUND 22-23C
SUPPORTS AN EXTREMELY HOT DAY...MAYBE EVEN OUR HOTTEST DAY OF THE
SUMMER SO FAR FOR MANY OF US. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN THE VIRGINIA/S AND KENTUCKY EARLY THIS
MORNING WOULD BE THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR FROM THE FORECAST AREA
ACHIEVING MAX TEMPS SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEME.
THUS WE ARE SHOWING 95-100 INLAND FROM THE BARRIER ISLANDS...WITH
EVEN UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES. DEW POINTS WILL MIX
OUT ENOUGH INLAND WITH THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORIES...DOWN IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS EQUATES TO MAX
HEAT INDICES OF 105-108 DEGREES...NOT QUITE TO OUR CRITERIA OF 110
DEGREES THIS LATE INTO THE SUMMER SEASON FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.
SHOULD TEMPS CLIMB EVEN HIGHER AND/OR DEW POINTS NOT FALL AS
LOW...ESPECIALLY IF THEY POOL IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RESULTANT
SEA BREEZE...THEN A HEAT ADVISORY WOULD BECOME NECESSARY. EITHER
WAY IT/LL BE HOT AND HUMID ENOUGH WHERE OUTDOOR CAUTION IS
EXTREMELY ADVISED.

A CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AROUND 5-7K FT...THERE IS EVEN LESS
MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY /WHEN WE ONLY HAD ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION/ AND A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE LFC AND LCL. THIS LOOKS
TO EASILY PREVENT SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM DEVELOPING TODAY...A RARE
OCCURRENCES THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT...A BROAD AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL START TO CARVE OUT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...CAUSING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
INTO THE NE STATES. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE NEAR THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND THAT ALONG WITH A SPARSE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT WE/LL REMAIN RAINFREE. A BUILD
UP OF DAYTIME HEAT AND THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER NEVER FULLY
DECOUPLING WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM GETTING ANY LOWER THAN THE MID
OR UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. WE/LL BE CLOSE
TO RECORD HIGH MINS WITH READINGS SUCH AS THIS...CHARLESTON
AIRPORT OF 79 SET IN 1981...DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WITH 83 SET IN
1999 AND THE SAVANNAH AIRPORT WITH 81 SET IN 1878. PLUS THERE IS
THE CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD BE IN
GREATER SUPPLY THAN NOW FORECAST...ANOTHER REASON FOR IT TO BE A
VERY WARM NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AS
THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT CAP
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LACK OF
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION
AND WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE WESTERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN MANY AREAS.
WITH THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT...THE TREMENDOUS SURFACE HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE NEAR
STORM ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND
THERMODYNAMICS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING WITH IT
30-40 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATIONS OF THE
PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HAIL CAPES ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY THERE...AS WELL AS
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED...BUT WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
STRONG. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF SHEAR...THE
MODE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND SOME COMBINATION OF
MULTICELLS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE TIME PERIOD OF
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE SAME...AS EARLY AS 4-5 PM
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
FOR BOTH THE HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT MORE THAN ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD REDUCE HEAT INDICES AND FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING WITH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS. WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY AND
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HWO MENTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MUCH COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE GROUND FOG AT THE TERMINALS FROM ABOUT
09-13Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF
CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...MOST
ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES HELP TO ENHANCE
SPEEDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
BY JULY STANDARDS...SITUATED BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO THE SE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SW WINDS AVERAGING A GOOD 12-17 KT...WITH EVEN
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP SEAS UP AT 2-4
FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS AND PARTS OF AMZ350.

TONIGHT...THERE IS A FURTHER PACKING OF THE ISOBARS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERN STATES LOW INTENSIFYING AND A COLD FRONT HEADING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. IN FACT THERE IS AS MUCH AS A 3 MB SPREAD
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SW WINDS TO CLIMB EVEN HIGHER...UP TO SOME 16-21 KT.
GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH AROUND 25 KT...BUT FOR THE MOMENT
THEIR FREQUENCY AND SPATIAL COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
HOISTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS. SEAS WILL CLIMB ANOTHER
FOOT OR SO FROM TODAY...CAPPED AT 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 270803
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
403 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A
COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...IT/S AN EXTREMELY WARM AND MUGGY START TO
THE DAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID OR UPPER 70S IF NOT HIGHER...AND
SIMILAR DEW POINT VALUES. LIGHT FOG WILL BE AROUND...BUT WITH
VISIBILITIES NO LOWER THAN 2-3 MILES THIS DOES NOT WARRANT ADDING
TO THE FORECAST. WE COULD FLIRT WITH THE RECORD HIGH MINS AT
CHARLESTON /79 SET IN 2005/ AND IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON /82 SET IN
2005/.

TODAY...WE/LL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FLAT RIDGING ALOFT AS A
CLOSED LOW DIGS SE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A LEE SIDE TROUGH IS PREVALENT...WHILE THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS YET AGAIN FAR TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

A CROSS-SECTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FINDS AN OFFSHORE WEST/NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE VERTICAL RESULTING IN A STRONG DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OFF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS ALONG WITH AN EXPANSION OF LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPS THAT LOOK TO PEAK AROUND 22-23C
SUPPORTS AN EXTREMELY HOT DAY...MAYBE EVEN OUR HOTTEST DAY OF THE
SUMMER SO FAR FOR MANY OF US. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN THE VIRGINIA/S AND KENTUCKY EARLY THIS
MORNING WOULD BE THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR FROM THE FORECAST AREA
ACHIEVING MAX TEMPS SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEME.
THUS WE ARE SHOWING 95-100 INLAND FROM THE BARRIER ISLANDS...WITH
EVEN UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES. DEW POINTS WILL MIX
OUT ENOUGH INLAND WITH THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORIES...DOWN IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS EQUATES TO MAX
HEAT INDICES OF 105-108 DEGREES...NOT QUITE TO OUR CRITERIA OF 110
DEGREES THIS LATE INTO THE SUMMER SEASON FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.
SHOULD TEMPS CLIMB EVEN HIGHER AND/OR DEW POINTS NOT FALL AS
LOW...ESPECIALLY IF THEY POOL IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RESULTANT
SEA BREEZE...THEN A HEAT ADVISORY WOULD BECOME NECESSARY. EITHER
WAY IT/LL BE HOT AND HUMID ENOUGH WHERE OUTDOOR CAUTION IS
EXTREMELY ADVISED.

A CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AROUND 5-7K FT...THERE IS EVEN LESS
MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY /WHEN WE ONLY HAD ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION/ AND A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE LFC AND LCL. THIS LOOKS
TO EASILY PREVENT SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM DEVELOPING TODAY...A RARE
OCCURRENCES THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT...A BROAD AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL START TO CARVE OUT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...CAUSING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
INTO THE NE STATES. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE NEAR THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND THAT ALONG WITH A SPARSE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT WE/LL REMAIN RAINFREE. A BUILD
UP OF DAYTIME HEAT AND THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER NEVER FULLY
DECOUPLING WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM GETTING ANY LOWER THAN THE MID
OR UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. WE/LL BE CLOSE
TO RECORD HIGH MINS WITH READINGS SUCH AS THIS...CHARLESTON
AIRPORT OF 79 SET IN 1981...DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WITH 83 SET IN
1999 AND THE SAVANNAH AIRPORT WITH 81 SET IN 1878. PLUS THERE IS
THE CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD BE IN
GREATER SUPPLY THAN NOW FORECAST...ANOTHER REASON FOR IT TO BE A
VERY WARM NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AS
THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT CAP
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LACK OF
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION
AND WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE WESTERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN MANY AREAS.
WITH THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT...THE TREMENDOUS SURFACE HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE NEAR
STORM ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND
THERMODYNAMICS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING WITH IT
30-40 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATIONS OF THE
PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HAIL CAPES ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY THERE...AS WELL AS
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED...BUT WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
STRONG. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF SHEAR...THE
MODE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND SOME COMBINATION OF
MULTICELLS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE TIME PERIOD OF
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE SAME...AS EARLY AS 4-5 PM
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
FOR BOTH THE HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT MORE THAN ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD REDUCE HEAT INDICES AND FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING WITH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS. WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY AND
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HWO MENTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MUCH COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE GROUND FOG AT THE TERMINALS FROM ABOUT
09-13Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF
CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...MOST
ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES HELP TO ENHANCE
SPEEDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
BY JULY STANDARDS...SITUATED BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO THE SE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SW WINDS AVERAGING A GOOD 12-17 KT...WITH EVEN
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP SEAS UP AT 2-4
FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS AND PARTS OF AMZ350.

TONIGHT...THERE IS A FURTHER PACKING OF THE ISOBARS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERN STATES LOW INTENSIFYING AND A COLD FRONT HEADING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. IN FACT THERE IS AS MUCH AS A 3 MB SPREAD
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SW WINDS TO CLIMB EVEN HIGHER...UP TO SOME 16-21 KT.
GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH AROUND 25 KT...BUT FOR THE MOMENT
THEIR FREQUENCY AND SPATIAL COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
HOISTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS. SEAS WILL CLIMB ANOTHER
FOOT OR SO FROM TODAY...CAPPED AT 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCAE 270707
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
307 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW RAINFALL TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING EASTWARD. THIS ENERGY WILL REMAIN OFF
TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH IT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
DOWNSLOPES.

TODAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AS
A STRONG DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES TOWARDS THE
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...BUT WITH MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON...SOME OF THE
GUSTY DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALOFT SHOULD REACH THE SURFACE. THIS WILL
HELP WARM TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 90S...OR AROUND 100...BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...RH VALUES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON TO KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES FROM RISING ABOVE 105.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST
RUNS ALSO INDICATING THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH DRIER THAT
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE
COAST...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL GENERALLY HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXTREMELY MILD READINGS FORECAST TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL
EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. FOR MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW
EXPECT PASSAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 90S. BEHIND
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM THINKING AND FORECAST.  THE
MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SURFACE
TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE IN TO KEEP MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP A MENTION OF A TEMPO GROUP FOR FOG AT BOTH AGS/OGB FOR THIS
MORNING. VFR SUNDAY...CONTINUED GENERALLY DRY. IT WILL BE LITTLE
MORE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS. TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING
A 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MINIMAL IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED
SUNDAY. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY WITH APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
AT COLUMBIA...103 IN 1949
AT AUGUSTA...102 IN 1936

WE COULD TIE OR BREAK A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT COLUMBIA.
THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT FOR COLUMBIA IS 78 DEGREES.
RECORD HIGH LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT COLUMBIA IS 78 DEGREES LAST SET
IN 1936 (WHEN OBSERVATIONS WERE TAKEN IN DOWNTOWN COLUMBIA)

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH LOW TEMPERATURE IS 82 IN 1936 (WHEN
OBSERVATIONS WERE TAKEN IN DOWNTOWN AUGUSTA)

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 270707
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
307 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW RAINFALL TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING EASTWARD. THIS ENERGY WILL REMAIN OFF
TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH IT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
DOWNSLOPES.

TODAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AS
A STRONG DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES TOWARDS THE
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...BUT WITH MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON...SOME OF THE
GUSTY DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALOFT SHOULD REACH THE SURFACE. THIS WILL
HELP WARM TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 90S...OR AROUND 100...BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...RH VALUES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON TO KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES FROM RISING ABOVE 105.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST
RUNS ALSO INDICATING THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH DRIER THAT
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE
COAST...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL GENERALLY HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXTREMELY MILD READINGS FORECAST TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL
EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. FOR MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW
EXPECT PASSAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 90S. BEHIND
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM THINKING AND FORECAST.  THE
MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SURFACE
TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE IN TO KEEP MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP A MENTION OF A TEMPO GROUP FOR FOG AT BOTH AGS/OGB FOR THIS
MORNING. VFR SUNDAY...CONTINUED GENERALLY DRY. IT WILL BE LITTLE
MORE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS. TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING
A 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MINIMAL IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED
SUNDAY. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY WITH APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
AT COLUMBIA...103 IN 1949
AT AUGUSTA...102 IN 1936

WE COULD TIE OR BREAK A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT COLUMBIA.
THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT FOR COLUMBIA IS 78 DEGREES.
RECORD HIGH LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT COLUMBIA IS 78 DEGREES LAST SET
IN 1936 (WHEN OBSERVATIONS WERE TAKEN IN DOWNTOWN COLUMBIA)

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH LOW TEMPERATURE IS 82 IN 1936 (WHEN
OBSERVATIONS WERE TAKEN IN DOWNTOWN AUGUSTA)

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 270707
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
307 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW RAINFALL TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING EASTWARD. THIS ENERGY WILL REMAIN OFF
TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH IT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
DOWNSLOPES.

TODAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AS
A STRONG DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES TOWARDS THE
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...BUT WITH MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON...SOME OF THE
GUSTY DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALOFT SHOULD REACH THE SURFACE. THIS WILL
HELP WARM TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 90S...OR AROUND 100...BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...RH VALUES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON TO KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES FROM RISING ABOVE 105.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST
RUNS ALSO INDICATING THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH DRIER THAT
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE
COAST...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL GENERALLY HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXTREMELY MILD READINGS FORECAST TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL
EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. FOR MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW
EXPECT PASSAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 90S. BEHIND
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM THINKING AND FORECAST.  THE
MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SURFACE
TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE IN TO KEEP MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP A MENTION OF A TEMPO GROUP FOR FOG AT BOTH AGS/OGB FOR THIS
MORNING. VFR SUNDAY...CONTINUED GENERALLY DRY. IT WILL BE LITTLE
MORE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS. TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING
A 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MINIMAL IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED
SUNDAY. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY WITH APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
AT COLUMBIA...103 IN 1949
AT AUGUSTA...102 IN 1936

WE COULD TIE OR BREAK A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT COLUMBIA.
THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT FOR COLUMBIA IS 78 DEGREES.
RECORD HIGH LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT COLUMBIA IS 78 DEGREES LAST SET
IN 1936 (WHEN OBSERVATIONS WERE TAKEN IN DOWNTOWN COLUMBIA)

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH LOW TEMPERATURE IS 82 IN 1936 (WHEN
OBSERVATIONS WERE TAKEN IN DOWNTOWN AUGUSTA)

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 270707
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
307 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW RAINFALL TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING EASTWARD. THIS ENERGY WILL REMAIN OFF
TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH IT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
DOWNSLOPES.

TODAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AS
A STRONG DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES TOWARDS THE
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...BUT WITH MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON...SOME OF THE
GUSTY DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALOFT SHOULD REACH THE SURFACE. THIS WILL
HELP WARM TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 90S...OR AROUND 100...BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...RH VALUES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON TO KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES FROM RISING ABOVE 105.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST
RUNS ALSO INDICATING THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH DRIER THAT
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE
COAST...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL GENERALLY HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH POSSIBLE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXTREMELY MILD READINGS FORECAST TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL
EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. FOR MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW
EXPECT PASSAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 90S. BEHIND
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM THINKING AND FORECAST.  THE
MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SURFACE
TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE IN TO KEEP MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP A MENTION OF A TEMPO GROUP FOR FOG AT BOTH AGS/OGB FOR THIS
MORNING. VFR SUNDAY...CONTINUED GENERALLY DRY. IT WILL BE LITTLE
MORE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS. TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING
A 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MINIMAL IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED
SUNDAY. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY WITH APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
AT COLUMBIA...103 IN 1949
AT AUGUSTA...102 IN 1936

WE COULD TIE OR BREAK A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT COLUMBIA.
THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT FOR COLUMBIA IS 78 DEGREES.
RECORD HIGH LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT AT COLUMBIA IS 78 DEGREES LAST SET
IN 1936 (WHEN OBSERVATIONS WERE TAKEN IN DOWNTOWN COLUMBIA)

AT AUGUSTA...THE RECORD HIGH LOW TEMPERATURE IS 82 IN 1936 (WHEN
OBSERVATIONS WERE TAKEN IN DOWNTOWN AUGUSTA)

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KFFC 270535
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
135 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON. WV/500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK
SHEAR AXIS AND SHORTWAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONT. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CWFA. THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR DO HAVE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF ZONES LATE THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THAT REGION...ALONG WITH THE WEAK/STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. MODELS ARE PROGGING AN MCS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH OF
THE CWFA...BUT THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CLIP
THE NORTHERN ZONES. POPS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30 TO 40
PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG ANY MCS TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE CWFA
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT. MOST OF THE MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL SKATE BY TO THE NORTH. EVEN SO...DO THINK
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW STRONG...COULD APPROACH THE NORTHERN ZONES BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT...SOME LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE THREATENED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS. LEANED HARD ON WPC MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF TN SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO N GA
MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO NW GA BY 06Z-12Z MON AND PUSH SOUTH TO THE FL BORDER BY 12Z
TUE. AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS GA INSTABILITIES INCREASE WITH
CAPES EXPECTED AROUND 1000 TO 3000 J/KG AND LIS RANGING FROM -3
TO -7. SHEAR VALUES DO NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT THEY DO
INCREASE A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE DAY
2 SLIGHT RISK AREA COMING SOUTH OUT OF TN RIGHT TO OUR NORTHERN
BORDER BY 12Z MON. SPC AS GA ON DAY 3 IN JUST A SEE TEXT AREA.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THAT EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AN UPPER
LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH TUE/WED. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
IN ACROSS THE AREA DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND
LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

01

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958



RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD... DESPITE A FEW
BRIEF PATCHES OF 4-6SM BR AROUND THIS MORNING. SCT MID LEVEL CU WILL
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCE AND A DRIER AIR MASS WILL GREATLY HINDER ANY
CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTH GA LATE
TONIGHT... SO COULD SEE SOME MID LEVEL CIGS SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND
OVER THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 09-12Z MON. LIGHT WEST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12KTS BY LATE MORNING WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THRU THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WSW WINDS 6-8KTS TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  95  76  91 /   5  10  20  20
ATLANTA         74  93  76  87 /   5  10  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     67  88  68  80 /   0  20  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    71  93  74  87 /   5  10  30  20
COLUMBUS        76  95  76  92 /  10  10  10  50
GAINESVILLE     73  93  74  87 /   5  10  30  20
MACON           74  95  77  93 /  10  10  10  50
ROME            71  94  74  87 /   0  20  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  72  93  75  89 /   5  10  20  30
VIDALIA         77  95  78  94 /  10  20  10  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA/39
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...39











000
FXUS62 KFFC 270535
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
135 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON. WV/500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK
SHEAR AXIS AND SHORTWAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONT. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CWFA. THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR DO HAVE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF ZONES LATE THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THAT REGION...ALONG WITH THE WEAK/STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. MODELS ARE PROGGING AN MCS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH OF
THE CWFA...BUT THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CLIP
THE NORTHERN ZONES. POPS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30 TO 40
PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG ANY MCS TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE CWFA
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT. MOST OF THE MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL SKATE BY TO THE NORTH. EVEN SO...DO THINK
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW STRONG...COULD APPROACH THE NORTHERN ZONES BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT...SOME LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE THREATENED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS. LEANED HARD ON WPC MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF TN SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO N GA
MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO NW GA BY 06Z-12Z MON AND PUSH SOUTH TO THE FL BORDER BY 12Z
TUE. AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS GA INSTABILITIES INCREASE WITH
CAPES EXPECTED AROUND 1000 TO 3000 J/KG AND LIS RANGING FROM -3
TO -7. SHEAR VALUES DO NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT THEY DO
INCREASE A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE DAY
2 SLIGHT RISK AREA COMING SOUTH OUT OF TN RIGHT TO OUR NORTHERN
BORDER BY 12Z MON. SPC AS GA ON DAY 3 IN JUST A SEE TEXT AREA.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THAT EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AN UPPER
LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH TUE/WED. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION
OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
IN ACROSS THE AREA DAYS 6 AND 7. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND
LOW 80S ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

01

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958



RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     76 1931     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     66 1997
                            1981        2010
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD... DESPITE A FEW
BRIEF PATCHES OF 4-6SM BR AROUND THIS MORNING. SCT MID LEVEL CU WILL
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCE AND A DRIER AIR MASS WILL GREATLY HINDER ANY
CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTH GA LATE
TONIGHT... SO COULD SEE SOME MID LEVEL CIGS SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND
OVER THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 09-12Z MON. LIGHT WEST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12KTS BY LATE MORNING WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THRU THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WSW WINDS 6-8KTS TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  95  76  91 /   5  10  20  20
ATLANTA         74  93  76  87 /   5  10  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     67  88  68  80 /   0  20  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    71  93  74  87 /   5  10  30  20
COLUMBUS        76  95  76  92 /  10  10  10  50
GAINESVILLE     73  93  74  87 /   5  10  30  20
MACON           74  95  77  93 /  10  10  10  50
ROME            71  94  74  87 /   0  20  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  72  93  75  89 /   5  10  20  30
VIDALIA         77  95  78  94 /  10  20  10  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA/39
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...39












000
FXUS62 KCHS 270514
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
114 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PREVAILING
INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AND BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE...WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A SWATH OF DRY AIR ALOFT SPREADING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN ITS WAKE. OTHER THAN SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS FROM DISTANT UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN THE OHIO VALLEY...SKIES WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE RATHER WARM...NO LOWER THAN 75-80
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WARMEST ALONG THE COAST. COULD BE CLOSE TO
THE RECORD HIGH MIN AT KCHS FOR JULY 27TH WHICH IS 79 SET IN 2005.
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT VISIBILITIES
ARE NOT EXPECTED ANY LOWER THAN ABOUT 2 OR 3 MILES...THUS NO NEED
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE WEEK AS THE
AREA REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OFF THE SFC...RESULTING IN A DOWNSLOPING WIND
COMPONENT DURING STRONG SFC HEATING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES
SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S...WARMEST INLAND.
THESE TEMPS IN COMBINATION WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORT
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-108 DEGREES FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST...WHICH FALLS JUST SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. SHOULD
SFC TEMPS OR DEWPTS INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO...HEAT ADVISORIES COULD
BE NEEDED DURING PEAK HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DESPITE
STRONG SFC HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON...A CAPPING INVERSION WILL
LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. A DRY FORECAST WILL
THEREFORE REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WELL AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHWEST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING AS H25 WINDS AND A SERIES OF H5
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND CAUSE IT TO DIG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE DIGGING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT TO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...BRINGING EVEN HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING FRONT...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS AS LIFTED
INDEX VALUES APPROACH -9.0 C AND SBCAPES RANGE BETWEEN 3000-4000
J/KG. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
MOST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DESPITE A LATER ARRIVAL...CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WARM AND MOIST UNTIL COLD FROPA...AND
STRONGER/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY EVENING UNTIL MIDNIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
INLAND GEORGIA...WITH A LINGERING RISK OVER COASTAL GEORGIA BEFORE
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES ALONG WITH THE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND EVENT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS PWATS
APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE FROPA
OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS BY
TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...HIGHEST AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER PERIOD
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL RESULT
IN AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL START OFF LOWER WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH IN
THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE GROUND AT THE TERMINALS FROM ABOUT
09-13Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF
CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES HELP TO
ENHANCE SPEEDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE MARINE ZONES WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN AN INLAND
TROUGH AND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SE. SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 12-18 KT SUSTAINED WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC...AND AROUND 10 KT IN CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT 4 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EARLY IN THE PERIOD THE SETUP WILL
FEATURE A TIGHTENING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THIS SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD...THE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT TIMES.
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PERIODICALLY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 270514
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
114 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PREVAILING
INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AND BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE...WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A SWATH OF DRY AIR ALOFT SPREADING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN ITS WAKE. OTHER THAN SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS FROM DISTANT UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN THE OHIO VALLEY...SKIES WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE RATHER WARM...NO LOWER THAN 75-80
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WARMEST ALONG THE COAST. COULD BE CLOSE TO
THE RECORD HIGH MIN AT KCHS FOR JULY 27TH WHICH IS 79 SET IN 2005.
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT VISIBILITIES
ARE NOT EXPECTED ANY LOWER THAN ABOUT 2 OR 3 MILES...THUS NO NEED
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE WEEK AS THE
AREA REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OFF THE SFC...RESULTING IN A DOWNSLOPING WIND
COMPONENT DURING STRONG SFC HEATING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES
SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S...WARMEST INLAND.
THESE TEMPS IN COMBINATION WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORT
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-108 DEGREES FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST...WHICH FALLS JUST SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. SHOULD
SFC TEMPS OR DEWPTS INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO...HEAT ADVISORIES COULD
BE NEEDED DURING PEAK HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DESPITE
STRONG SFC HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON...A CAPPING INVERSION WILL
LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. A DRY FORECAST WILL
THEREFORE REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WELL AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHWEST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING AS H25 WINDS AND A SERIES OF H5
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND CAUSE IT TO DIG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE DIGGING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT TO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...BRINGING EVEN HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING FRONT...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS AS LIFTED
INDEX VALUES APPROACH -9.0 C AND SBCAPES RANGE BETWEEN 3000-4000
J/KG. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
MOST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DESPITE A LATER ARRIVAL...CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WARM AND MOIST UNTIL COLD FROPA...AND
STRONGER/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY EVENING UNTIL MIDNIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
INLAND GEORGIA...WITH A LINGERING RISK OVER COASTAL GEORGIA BEFORE
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES ALONG WITH THE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND EVENT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS PWATS
APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE FROPA
OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS BY
TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...HIGHEST AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER PERIOD
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL RESULT
IN AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL START OFF LOWER WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH IN
THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE GROUND AT THE TERMINALS FROM ABOUT
09-13Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF
CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES HELP TO
ENHANCE SPEEDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE MARINE ZONES WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN AN INLAND
TROUGH AND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SE. SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 12-18 KT SUSTAINED WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC...AND AROUND 10 KT IN CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT 4 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EARLY IN THE PERIOD THE SETUP WILL
FEATURE A TIGHTENING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THIS SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD...THE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT TIMES.
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PERIODICALLY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 270455
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1255 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PREVAILING
INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AND BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE...WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A SWATH OF DRY AIR ALOFT SPREADING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN ITS WAKE. OTHER THAN SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS FROM DISTANT UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN THE OHIO VALLEY...SKIES WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE RATHER WARM...NO LOWER THAN 75-80
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WARMEST ALONG THE COAST. COULD BE CLOSE TO
THE RECORD HIGH MIN AT KCHS FOR JULY 27TH WHICH IS 79 SET IN 2005.
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT VISIBILITIES
ARE NOT EXPECTED ANY LOWER THAN ABOUT 2 OR 3 MILES...THUS NO NEED
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE WEEK AS THE
AREA REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OFF THE SFC...RESULTING IN A DOWNSLOPING WIND
COMPONENT DURING STRONG SFC HEATING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES
SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S...WARMEST INLAND.
THESE TEMPS IN COMBINATION WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORT
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-108 DEGREES FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST...WHICH FALLS JUST SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. SHOULD
SFC TEMPS OR DEWPTS INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO...HEAT ADVISORIES COULD
BE NEEDED DURING PEAK HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DESPITE
STRONG SFC HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON...A CAPPING INVERSION WILL
LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. A DRY FORECAST WILL
THEREFORE REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WELL AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHWEST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING AS H25 WINDS AND A SERIES OF H5
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND CAUSE IT TO DIG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE DIGGING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT TO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...BRINGING EVEN HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING FRONT...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS AS LIFTED
INDEX VALUES APPROACH -9.0 C AND SBCAPES RANGE BETWEEN 3000-4000
J/KG. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
MOST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DESPITE A LATER ARRIVAL...CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WARM AND MOIST UNTIL COLD FROPA...AND
STRONGER/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY EVENING UNTIL MIDNIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
INLAND GEORGIA...WITH A LINGERING RISK OVER COASTAL GEORGIA BEFORE
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES ALONG WITH THE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND EVENT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS PWATS
APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE FROPA
OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS BY
TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...HIGHEST AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER PERIOD
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL RESULT
IN AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL START OFF LOWER WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH IN
THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE MARINE ZONES WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN AN INLAND
TROUGH AND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SE. SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 12-18 KT SUSTAINED WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC...AND AROUND 10 KT IN CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT 4 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EARLY IN THE PERIOD THE SETUP WILL
FEATURE A TIGHTENING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THIS SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD...THE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT TIMES.
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PERIODICALLY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...DPB/JAQ
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 270455
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1255 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PREVAILING
INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AND BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE...WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A SWATH OF DRY AIR ALOFT SPREADING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN ITS WAKE. OTHER THAN SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS FROM DISTANT UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN THE OHIO VALLEY...SKIES WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE RATHER WARM...NO LOWER THAN 75-80
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WARMEST ALONG THE COAST. COULD BE CLOSE TO
THE RECORD HIGH MIN AT KCHS FOR JULY 27TH WHICH IS 79 SET IN 2005.
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT VISIBILITIES
ARE NOT EXPECTED ANY LOWER THAN ABOUT 2 OR 3 MILES...THUS NO NEED
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE WEEK AS THE
AREA REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OFF THE SFC...RESULTING IN A DOWNSLOPING WIND
COMPONENT DURING STRONG SFC HEATING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES
SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S...WARMEST INLAND.
THESE TEMPS IN COMBINATION WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORT
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-108 DEGREES FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST...WHICH FALLS JUST SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. SHOULD
SFC TEMPS OR DEWPTS INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO...HEAT ADVISORIES COULD
BE NEEDED DURING PEAK HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DESPITE
STRONG SFC HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON...A CAPPING INVERSION WILL
LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. A DRY FORECAST WILL
THEREFORE REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WELL AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHWEST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING AS H25 WINDS AND A SERIES OF H5
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND CAUSE IT TO DIG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE DIGGING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT TO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...BRINGING EVEN HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING FRONT...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS AS LIFTED
INDEX VALUES APPROACH -9.0 C AND SBCAPES RANGE BETWEEN 3000-4000
J/KG. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
MOST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DESPITE A LATER ARRIVAL...CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WARM AND MOIST UNTIL COLD FROPA...AND
STRONGER/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY EVENING UNTIL MIDNIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
INLAND GEORGIA...WITH A LINGERING RISK OVER COASTAL GEORGIA BEFORE
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES ALONG WITH THE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND EVENT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS PWATS
APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE FROPA
OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS BY
TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...HIGHEST AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER PERIOD
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL RESULT
IN AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL START OFF LOWER WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH IN
THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE MARINE ZONES WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN AN INLAND
TROUGH AND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SE. SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 12-18 KT SUSTAINED WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC...AND AROUND 10 KT IN CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT 4 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EARLY IN THE PERIOD THE SETUP WILL
FEATURE A TIGHTENING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THIS SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD...THE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT TIMES.
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PERIODICALLY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...DPB/JAQ
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 270213
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1013 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PREVAILING
INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AND BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE...WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A SWATH OF DRY AIR ALOFT SPREADING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN ITS WAKE THIS EVENING. THIS DRY AIR
ALOFT COMBINED WITH LESS DIURNAL HEATING HAS GENERALLY BROUGHT
AN END TO THE ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER. WHILE A
VERY ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH MID-EVENING...EXPECT
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. OTHER THAN
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
BE RATHER MILD...WITH MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE WEEK AS THE
AREA REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OFF THE SFC...RESULTING IN A DOWNSLOPING WIND
COMPONENT DURING STRONG SFC HEATING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES
SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S...WARMEST INLAND.
THESE TEMPS IN COMBINATION WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORT
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-108 DEGREES FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST...WHICH FALLS JUST SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. SHOULD
SFC TEMPS OR DEWPTS INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO...HEAT ADVISORIES COULD
BE NEEDED DURING PEAK HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DESPITE
STRONG SFC HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON...A CAPPING INVERSION WILL
LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. A DRY FORECAST WILL
THEREFORE REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WELL AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHWEST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING AS H25 WINDS AND A SERIES OF H5
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND CAUSE IT TO DIG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE DIGGING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT TO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...BRINGING EVEN HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING FRONT...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS AS LIFTED
INDEX VALUES APPROACH -9.0 C AND SBCAPES RANGE BETWEEN 3000-4000
J/KG. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
MOST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DESPITE A LATER ARRIVAL...CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WARM AND MOIST UNTIL COLD FROPA...AND
STRONGER/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY EVENING UNTIL MIDNIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
INLAND GEORGIA...WITH A LINGERING RISK OVER COASTAL GEORGIA BEFORE
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES ALONG WITH THE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND EVENT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS PWATS
APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE FROPA
OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS BY
TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...HIGHEST AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER PERIOD
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL RESULT
IN AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL START OFF LOWER WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH IN
THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE MARINE ZONES WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN A FAIRLY WEAK
SURFACE PATTERN...WITH THE MAIN FEATURE A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL INLAND. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER MORE
WEST/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH PREVAILING WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY
15 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT 4 FT IN THE
FAR OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EARLY IN THE PERIOD THE SETUP WILL
FEATURE A TIGHTENING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THIS SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD...THE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT TIMES.
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PERIODICALLY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/DPB
MARINE...WMS/DPB






000
FXUS62 KCHS 270213
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1013 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PREVAILING
INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AND BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE...WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A SWATH OF DRY AIR ALOFT SPREADING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN ITS WAKE THIS EVENING. THIS DRY AIR
ALOFT COMBINED WITH LESS DIURNAL HEATING HAS GENERALLY BROUGHT
AN END TO THE ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER. WHILE A
VERY ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH MID-EVENING...EXPECT
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. OTHER THAN
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
BE RATHER MILD...WITH MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE WEEK AS THE
AREA REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OFF THE SFC...RESULTING IN A DOWNSLOPING WIND
COMPONENT DURING STRONG SFC HEATING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES
SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S...WARMEST INLAND.
THESE TEMPS IN COMBINATION WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORT
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-108 DEGREES FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST...WHICH FALLS JUST SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. SHOULD
SFC TEMPS OR DEWPTS INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO...HEAT ADVISORIES COULD
BE NEEDED DURING PEAK HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DESPITE
STRONG SFC HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON...A CAPPING INVERSION WILL
LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. A DRY FORECAST WILL
THEREFORE REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WELL AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHWEST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING AS H25 WINDS AND A SERIES OF H5
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND CAUSE IT TO DIG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE DIGGING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT TO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...BRINGING EVEN HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING FRONT...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS AS LIFTED
INDEX VALUES APPROACH -9.0 C AND SBCAPES RANGE BETWEEN 3000-4000
J/KG. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
MOST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DESPITE A LATER ARRIVAL...CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WARM AND MOIST UNTIL COLD FROPA...AND
STRONGER/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY EVENING UNTIL MIDNIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
INLAND GEORGIA...WITH A LINGERING RISK OVER COASTAL GEORGIA BEFORE
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES ALONG WITH THE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND EVENT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS PWATS
APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE FROPA
OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS BY
TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...HIGHEST AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER PERIOD
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL RESULT
IN AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL START OFF LOWER WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH IN
THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE MARINE ZONES WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN A FAIRLY WEAK
SURFACE PATTERN...WITH THE MAIN FEATURE A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL INLAND. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER MORE
WEST/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH PREVAILING WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY
15 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT 4 FT IN THE
FAR OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EARLY IN THE PERIOD THE SETUP WILL
FEATURE A TIGHTENING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THIS SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD...THE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT TIMES.
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PERIODICALLY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/DPB
MARINE...WMS/DPB







000
FXUS62 KCAE 270139 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
939 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME HIGHER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL WITH MOST LOCATIONS STILL IN
THE MID 80S. FLAT RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH A DRIER AIRMASS
SETTLING OVER THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS FORECASTED FOR SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/FRONT...MAINLY
DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALSO HELP
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S SUNDAY IN MANY AREAS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 75 TO 80-DEGREE RANGE.

A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS NEAR THE SEA-BREEZE. KEPT
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. ANOTHER HOT DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS
WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
SURFACE TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH
WOULD KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE IN TO KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE
TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. BETTER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE TERMINALS TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING SH/TSRA AT OUR TERMINALS.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY SINK SOUTH OR MIX DOWN...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEED TONIGHT...COULD WORK AGAINST
SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION LATE TON/EARLY SUN. LIMITED CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME. FOR NOW...WILL RESTRICT ANY FOG MENTION TO THE FOG PRONE
TERMINALS...AGS/OGB. VFR SUNDAY...CONTINUED GENERALLY DRY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MINIMAL IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED
SUNDAY. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY WITH APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 270139 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
939 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME HIGHER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL WITH MOST LOCATIONS STILL IN
THE MID 80S. FLAT RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH A DRIER AIRMASS
SETTLING OVER THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS FORECASTED FOR SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/FRONT...MAINLY
DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPING SHOULD ALSO HELP
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S SUNDAY IN MANY AREAS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 75 TO 80-DEGREE RANGE.

A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS NEAR THE SEA-BREEZE. KEPT
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. ANOTHER HOT DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS
WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
SURFACE TROUGH MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH
WOULD KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE IN TO KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE
TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. BETTER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE TERMINALS TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING SH/TSRA AT OUR TERMINALS.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY SINK SOUTH OR MIX DOWN...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEED TONIGHT...COULD WORK AGAINST
SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION LATE TON/EARLY SUN. LIMITED CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME. FOR NOW...WILL RESTRICT ANY FOG MENTION TO THE FOG PRONE
TERMINALS...AGS/OGB. VFR SUNDAY...CONTINUED GENERALLY DRY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MINIMAL IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED
SUNDAY. BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY WITH APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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