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000
FXUS62 KCHS 050824
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
424 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK BEFORE POSSIBLY
WEAKENING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
LINGER OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE THE ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE
TROUGH PERSISTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AN ADVANCE
TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE REGION WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WHILE A PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA.

A SYNOPTIC SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION...PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF AROUND 2
INCHES TODAY. THIS DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE FOCUSED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ONCE AGAIN...AT LEAST A FEW OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND FORM
LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THIS
POTENTIAL...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND MENTION WILL BE ADDED TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO AROUND 90 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSES
THROUGH. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH...THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD THEN
SHIFT OUT INTO THE NEARBY ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT WHERE INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATEST. LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD.

MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE AND LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. SEVERE RISK IS LOW GIVEN REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR. HIGHS
LIKELY IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.
CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE FOR THE MOST PART MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE INFLUENCE. WITH REDUCED CONVECTION
HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA
LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES MORE INTO THE MID 90S. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH GIVEN THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SEA BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...THEN THERE IS MORE
DISCREPANCY/FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN LATE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT LOW SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER THAN
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. THE COMBINATION OF
SUCH TEMPS AND THE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND HAVE INTRODUCED VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF/S
FROM 18-23Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
WATERS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS...BUT SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENT IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE SEA BREEZE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...AND A BIT FARTHER FROM THE
COAST LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT DUE TO NOCTURNAL
SURGING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-3 FT ACROSS THE WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS LATER IN
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY 15
KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 050824
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
424 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK BEFORE POSSIBLY
WEAKENING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
LINGER OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE THE ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE
TROUGH PERSISTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AN ADVANCE
TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE REGION WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WHILE A PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA.

A SYNOPTIC SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION...PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF AROUND 2
INCHES TODAY. THIS DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE FOCUSED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ONCE AGAIN...AT LEAST A FEW OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND FORM
LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THIS
POTENTIAL...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND MENTION WILL BE ADDED TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO AROUND 90 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSES
THROUGH. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH...THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD THEN
SHIFT OUT INTO THE NEARBY ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT WHERE INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATEST. LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD.

MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE AND LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. SEVERE RISK IS LOW GIVEN REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR. HIGHS
LIKELY IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.
CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE FOR THE MOST PART MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE INFLUENCE. WITH REDUCED CONVECTION
HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA
LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES MORE INTO THE MID 90S. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH GIVEN THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SEA BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...THEN THERE IS MORE
DISCREPANCY/FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN LATE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT LOW SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER THAN
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. THE COMBINATION OF
SUCH TEMPS AND THE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND HAVE INTRODUCED VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF/S
FROM 18-23Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
WATERS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS...BUT SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENT IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE SEA BREEZE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...AND A BIT FARTHER FROM THE
COAST LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT DUE TO NOCTURNAL
SURGING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-3 FT ACROSS THE WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS LATER IN
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY 15
KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 050824
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
424 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK BEFORE POSSIBLY
WEAKENING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
LINGER OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE THE ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE
TROUGH PERSISTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AN ADVANCE
TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE REGION WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WHILE A PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA.

A SYNOPTIC SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION...PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF AROUND 2
INCHES TODAY. THIS DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE FOCUSED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ONCE AGAIN...AT LEAST A FEW OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND FORM
LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THIS
POTENTIAL...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND MENTION WILL BE ADDED TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO AROUND 90 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSES
THROUGH. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH...THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD THEN
SHIFT OUT INTO THE NEARBY ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT WHERE INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATEST. LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD.

MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE AND LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. SEVERE RISK IS LOW GIVEN REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR. HIGHS
LIKELY IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.
CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE FOR THE MOST PART MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE INFLUENCE. WITH REDUCED CONVECTION
HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA
LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES MORE INTO THE MID 90S. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH GIVEN THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SEA BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...THEN THERE IS MORE
DISCREPANCY/FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN LATE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT LOW SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER THAN
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. THE COMBINATION OF
SUCH TEMPS AND THE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND HAVE INTRODUCED VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF/S
FROM 18-23Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
WATERS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS...BUT SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENT IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE SEA BREEZE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...AND A BIT FARTHER FROM THE
COAST LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT DUE TO NOCTURNAL
SURGING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-3 FT ACROSS THE WATERS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS LATER IN
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY 15
KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB



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000
FXUS62 KFFC 050809
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
409 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST AS
ITS CLOSED CENTER ROTATES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT THIS
HOUR. ANOTHER WAVE OF CONVECTION MOVED THROUGH LAST EVENING AND
HAS ROTATED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. SHORT TERM REFLECTIVITY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED ANOTHER BAND FORMING ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER BY
MID MORNING BUT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT BE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH ALABAMA. WILL
INITIALIZE GRIDS WITH A DEVELOPING BAND INTO COLUMBUS THROUGH 12Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

THEREAFTER...FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...THINKING WE WILL HAVE
TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE FIRST WILL BE ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED SPOKE OF VORTICITY COMING UP FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION TO AFFECT AREAS FROM CSG TO AHN AND SOUTHWARD. SECOND AREA
WILL BE TO THE NORTH AS LOW CLOUDS EVENTUALLY THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR SOME INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. UPPER
LOW THEN PROVIDES THE NECESSARY ENERGY FOR A DEVELOPING LINE OF
STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH GA AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
ATL METRO BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COLD POCKET
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO -10C AT 500MB WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED STRONG THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH WINDS AND
HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS.

DUE TO THIS SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIP FOR NORTH GA...WILL CONTINUE
THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

UPPER LOW IS EAST OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND HINTS OF SOME DRIER
AIR AT THE MID LEVELS WORKING IN SHOULD RESULT IN REDUCED POPS.
SOME GUIDANCE IS AS LOW AS 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MONDAY BUT WOULD
LIKE ATMOSPHERE TO PROVE IT TO ME FIRST BASED ON ACTIVE PATTERN
THIS SUMMER. HAVE THEREFORE GONE CLOSER TO 40 TO 50 POPS FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD.

DEESE


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN STILL LOOKS ON TAP FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIODS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH BY MID WEEK AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME... IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS WILL BE ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE STRONGER RIDGE
INFLUENCE BEGINS TO TAKE BETTER HOLD BY WEDNESDAY. INCREASING
RIDGE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BRING AMPLE SUNSHINE AND HELP PUSH DAYTIME
HIGHS INTO THE 90S FOR MOST AREAS. THIS HEAT WILL WARRANT HOLDING
ONTO A LOW CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY... AND
A FEW PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING MAX HEATING CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
06Z UPDATE...
A BRIEF BREAK FROM WHAT SEEMS HAS BEEN A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF SHRA
AND TSRA AFFECTING THE TERMINALS. IFR AND MVFR MOVING IN FROM
ALABAMA LOOKS TO MOVE IN PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AND INFLUENCE SITES
THROUGH 14Z. LOOKING FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO THE CSG
AREA BY MID MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSRA IN
ATL AND AREA SITES AS WELL AS AHN AND MCN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  68  86  70 /  60  60  30  20
ATLANTA         81  70  84  71 /  70  50  40  20
BLAIRSVILLE     75  63  81  64 /  80  60  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    81  67  84  69 /  70  50  40  20
COLUMBUS        83  70  87  72 /  60  30  40  20
GAINESVILLE     80  68  84  70 /  70  60  30  20
MACON           86  69  88  71 /  60  30  40  20
ROME            81  68  85  69 /  50  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  81  68  85  70 /  60  30  40  20
VIDALIA         90  71  88  72 /  60  50  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...DEESE



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCAE 050804
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
404 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND MONDAY. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE SO MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY
AND LATE TONIGHT. WV SHOWS A COUPLE OF S/WVS OVER AL/GA WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RRQ OF WEAK H5 JET
WILL ASSIST IN AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND HIGH PW`S AROUND
2.0 WILL CAUSE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY TSTMS. H85 JET NOT AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY SO ANY WINDS THAT MIX DOWN IN TSTMS SHOULD BE
BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND 90 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
A TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY AS THE LOW KICKS OUT. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS
TO FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOWING
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...PUSHING EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE COMBINATIONS OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ON TUESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH GOOD AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING GOOD
CHANCES OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MORE
DIURNAL. ON THE DOWNSIDE THOUGH...IT WILL BRING A RETURN OF HOTTER
TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THE SHORT WAVES IN AL AND GA MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH
GUSTS UP TO 16 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS OR FOG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY ONWARD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 050622
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
222 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND MONDAY. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IS AVAILALBE SO MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY
AND MONDAY. WV SHOWS A COUPLE OF S/WVS OVER AL/GA WHICH WILL SWING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RRQ OF WEAK H5 JET WILL
ASSIST IN AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND HIGH PW`S AROUND 2.0
WILL CUASE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY TSTMS. H85 JET NOT AS STRONG
AS YESTERDAY SO ANY WINDS THAT MIX DOWN IN TSTMS SHOULD BE BELOW
SEVERE CRITERA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND 90 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND
70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THE SHORT WAVES IN AL AND GA MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH
GUSTS UP TO 16 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS OR FOG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY ONWARD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 050622
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
222 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND MONDAY. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IS AVAILALBE SO MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY
AND MONDAY. WV SHOWS A COUPLE OF S/WVS OVER AL/GA WHICH WILL SWING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RRQ OF WEAK H5 JET WILL
ASSIST IN AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND HIGH PW`S AROUND 2.0
WILL CUASE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY TSTMS. H85 JET NOT AS STRONG
AS YESTERDAY SO ANY WINDS THAT MIX DOWN IN TSTMS SHOULD BE BELOW
SEVERE CRITERA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND 90 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND
70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THE SHORT WAVES IN AL AND GA MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH
GUSTS UP TO 16 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS OR FOG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY ONWARD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 050622
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
222 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND MONDAY. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IS AVAILALBE SO MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY
AND MONDAY. WV SHOWS A COUPLE OF S/WVS OVER AL/GA WHICH WILL SWING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RRQ OF WEAK H5 JET WILL
ASSIST IN AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND HIGH PW`S AROUND 2.0
WILL CUASE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY TSTMS. H85 JET NOT AS STRONG
AS YESTERDAY SO ANY WINDS THAT MIX DOWN IN TSTMS SHOULD BE BELOW
SEVERE CRITERA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND 90 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND
70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THE SHORT WAVES IN AL AND GA MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH
GUSTS UP TO 16 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS OR FOG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY ONWARD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 050622
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
222 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND MONDAY. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IS AVAILALBE SO MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY
AND MONDAY. WV SHOWS A COUPLE OF S/WVS OVER AL/GA WHICH WILL SWING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RRQ OF WEAK H5 JET WILL
ASSIST IN AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND HIGH PW`S AROUND 2.0
WILL CUASE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY TSTMS. H85 JET NOT AS STRONG
AS YESTERDAY SO ANY WINDS THAT MIX DOWN IN TSTMS SHOULD BE BELOW
SEVERE CRITERA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND 90 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND
70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THE SHORT WAVES IN AL AND GA MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH
GUSTS UP TO 16 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS OR FOG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY ONWARD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCHS 050547
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
147 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM COULD
WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP OVER THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC...BUT GENERALLY MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
OR ONLY FALL BY ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH LOWS
AROUND 70 OR IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...HIGHEST INLAND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CLOSER TO 90. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW GIVEN
REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE
INFLUENCE. HIGHS A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND HAVE INTRODUCED VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF/S
FROM 18-23Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20
NM.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 050547
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
147 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM COULD
WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP OVER THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC...BUT GENERALLY MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
OR ONLY FALL BY ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH LOWS
AROUND 70 OR IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...HIGHEST INLAND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CLOSER TO 90. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW GIVEN
REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE
INFLUENCE. HIGHS A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND HAVE INTRODUCED VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF/S
FROM 18-23Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15
KT OR LESS. SEAS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20
NM.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...DPB



000
FXUS62 KFFC 050547
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
147 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

..SOME NORTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARIES MAY FOCUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT ALONG WITH A LINE PUSHING
EASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED FOR HIGHER POPS AGAIN IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA WITH LATEST
CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING ALONG SOME LINGERING NORTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 828 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS WITH POP TRENDS GREATER IN WEST CENTRAL GA WITH
APPROACHING COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT SHOULD LOSE SOME STEAM BEFORE
MACON WITH LACK OF HEATING AND PREVIOUS COOL POOL FROM EARLIER
PRECIP. ALSO ADJUSTED SOME HIGHER POPS IN NORTH GA WITH APPROACH
OF UPPER LOW AND SOME MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP FILLING IN ACROSS
NORTH AL. THUNDER CHANCES GREATER IN THE SOUTH BUT ANY LOCATION
COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS
PVA INCREASES WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ALSO MADE LARGE ADJUSTMENTS
ON TEMP TRENDS THIS EVENING FROM THE LATE DAY SOLAR SHELTERING
KEEPING CENTRAL GA COOLER AND NORTH GA WARMER. HAVE ALSO UPDATED
THE QPF THRU TOMORROW GOING A BIT HIGHER THAN WPC GUIDANCE WITH
THE ENHANCED MOISTURE AND GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS IN PLACE...STILL
LOOKING AT SOME WIDESPREAD VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES THOUGH 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE AND HAVE KEPT CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOING FOR THE NORTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA HAS LED
TO A SOMEWHAT STABILIZED AIRMASS ACROSS THE METRO AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AND TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 80S.
FURTHER SOUTH...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
INTERACTING WITH ONGOING STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

FOR TONIGHT...NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION IS GETTING FIRED UP ACROSS
EASTERN MS AND WESTERN AL. THE HRRR AND THE WRF SHOW THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS APPROACHING THE AL/GA STATE LINE AROUND 00Z. BOTH THE HI-RES
MODELS WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE LINE...BUT THE
WRF HAS LESS COVERAGE THAN THE HRRR. NEITHER MODEL HAD A GREAT
HANDLE ON THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...UNTIL A FEW HOURS INTO IT.
SINCE THIS WOULD BE THE TIMING THAT THE UPPER LOW AND A LARGE AREA
OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSES THE CWFA...HAVE KEPT THE POPS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 85. THE MODELS DO PROG PRECIP
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE DECREASED THE
POPS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE FOR SUNDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THINK THE BEST TIMING FOR STORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
A BRIEF BREAK FROM WHAT SEEMS HAS BEEN A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF SHRA
AND TSRA AFFECTING THE TERMINALS. IFR AND MVFR MOVING IN FROM
ALABAMA LOOKS TO MOVE IN PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AND INFLUENCE SITES
THROUGH 14Z. LOOKING FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO THE CSG
AREA BY MID MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSRA IN
ATL AND AREA SITES AS WELL AS AHN AND MCN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  69  86  69 /  60  40  50  20
ATLANTA         81  69  84  71 /  60  40  50  20
BLAIRSVILLE     76  63  79  64 /  70  50  50  30
CARTERSVILLE    80  68  84  68 /  70  40  50  30
COLUMBUS        85  71  87  72 /  60  40  50  30
GAINESVILLE     80  68  83  70 /  60  50  50  20
MACON           88  70  88  71 /  60  40  50  20
ROME            81  68  85  68 /  70  40  50  30
PEACHTREE CITY  82  69  85  69 /  60  40  50  20
VIDALIA         92  72  89  72 /  60  40  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 050547
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
147 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

..SOME NORTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARIES MAY FOCUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT ALONG WITH A LINE PUSHING
EASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED FOR HIGHER POPS AGAIN IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA WITH LATEST
CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING ALONG SOME LINGERING NORTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 828 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS WITH POP TRENDS GREATER IN WEST CENTRAL GA WITH
APPROACHING COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT SHOULD LOSE SOME STEAM BEFORE
MACON WITH LACK OF HEATING AND PREVIOUS COOL POOL FROM EARLIER
PRECIP. ALSO ADJUSTED SOME HIGHER POPS IN NORTH GA WITH APPROACH
OF UPPER LOW AND SOME MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP FILLING IN ACROSS
NORTH AL. THUNDER CHANCES GREATER IN THE SOUTH BUT ANY LOCATION
COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS
PVA INCREASES WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ALSO MADE LARGE ADJUSTMENTS
ON TEMP TRENDS THIS EVENING FROM THE LATE DAY SOLAR SHELTERING
KEEPING CENTRAL GA COOLER AND NORTH GA WARMER. HAVE ALSO UPDATED
THE QPF THRU TOMORROW GOING A BIT HIGHER THAN WPC GUIDANCE WITH
THE ENHANCED MOISTURE AND GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS IN PLACE...STILL
LOOKING AT SOME WIDESPREAD VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES THOUGH 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE AND HAVE KEPT CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOING FOR THE NORTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA HAS LED
TO A SOMEWHAT STABILIZED AIRMASS ACROSS THE METRO AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AND TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 80S.
FURTHER SOUTH...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
INTERACTING WITH ONGOING STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

FOR TONIGHT...NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION IS GETTING FIRED UP ACROSS
EASTERN MS AND WESTERN AL. THE HRRR AND THE WRF SHOW THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS APPROACHING THE AL/GA STATE LINE AROUND 00Z. BOTH THE HI-RES
MODELS WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE LINE...BUT THE
WRF HAS LESS COVERAGE THAN THE HRRR. NEITHER MODEL HAD A GREAT
HANDLE ON THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...UNTIL A FEW HOURS INTO IT.
SINCE THIS WOULD BE THE TIMING THAT THE UPPER LOW AND A LARGE AREA
OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSES THE CWFA...HAVE KEPT THE POPS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 85. THE MODELS DO PROG PRECIP
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE DECREASED THE
POPS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE FOR SUNDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THINK THE BEST TIMING FOR STORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
A BRIEF BREAK FROM WHAT SEEMS HAS BEEN A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF SHRA
AND TSRA AFFECTING THE TERMINALS. IFR AND MVFR MOVING IN FROM
ALABAMA LOOKS TO MOVE IN PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AND INFLUENCE SITES
THROUGH 14Z. LOOKING FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO THE CSG
AREA BY MID MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSRA IN
ATL AND AREA SITES AS WELL AS AHN AND MCN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  69  86  69 /  60  40  50  20
ATLANTA         81  69  84  71 /  60  40  50  20
BLAIRSVILLE     76  63  79  64 /  70  50  50  30
CARTERSVILLE    80  68  84  68 /  70  40  50  30
COLUMBUS        85  71  87  72 /  60  40  50  30
GAINESVILLE     80  68  83  70 /  60  50  50  20
MACON           88  70  88  71 /  60  40  50  20
ROME            81  68  85  68 /  70  40  50  30
PEACHTREE CITY  82  69  85  69 /  60  40  50  20
VIDALIA         92  72  89  72 /  60  40  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 050547
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
147 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

..SOME NORTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARIES MAY FOCUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT ALONG WITH A LINE PUSHING
EASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED FOR HIGHER POPS AGAIN IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA WITH LATEST
CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING ALONG SOME LINGERING NORTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 828 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS WITH POP TRENDS GREATER IN WEST CENTRAL GA WITH
APPROACHING COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT SHOULD LOSE SOME STEAM BEFORE
MACON WITH LACK OF HEATING AND PREVIOUS COOL POOL FROM EARLIER
PRECIP. ALSO ADJUSTED SOME HIGHER POPS IN NORTH GA WITH APPROACH
OF UPPER LOW AND SOME MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP FILLING IN ACROSS
NORTH AL. THUNDER CHANCES GREATER IN THE SOUTH BUT ANY LOCATION
COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS
PVA INCREASES WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ALSO MADE LARGE ADJUSTMENTS
ON TEMP TRENDS THIS EVENING FROM THE LATE DAY SOLAR SHELTERING
KEEPING CENTRAL GA COOLER AND NORTH GA WARMER. HAVE ALSO UPDATED
THE QPF THRU TOMORROW GOING A BIT HIGHER THAN WPC GUIDANCE WITH
THE ENHANCED MOISTURE AND GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS IN PLACE...STILL
LOOKING AT SOME WIDESPREAD VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES THOUGH 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE AND HAVE KEPT CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOING FOR THE NORTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA HAS LED
TO A SOMEWHAT STABILIZED AIRMASS ACROSS THE METRO AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AND TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 80S.
FURTHER SOUTH...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
INTERACTING WITH ONGOING STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

FOR TONIGHT...NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION IS GETTING FIRED UP ACROSS
EASTERN MS AND WESTERN AL. THE HRRR AND THE WRF SHOW THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS APPROACHING THE AL/GA STATE LINE AROUND 00Z. BOTH THE HI-RES
MODELS WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE LINE...BUT THE
WRF HAS LESS COVERAGE THAN THE HRRR. NEITHER MODEL HAD A GREAT
HANDLE ON THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...UNTIL A FEW HOURS INTO IT.
SINCE THIS WOULD BE THE TIMING THAT THE UPPER LOW AND A LARGE AREA
OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSES THE CWFA...HAVE KEPT THE POPS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 85. THE MODELS DO PROG PRECIP
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE DECREASED THE
POPS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE FOR SUNDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THINK THE BEST TIMING FOR STORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
A BRIEF BREAK FROM WHAT SEEMS HAS BEEN A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF SHRA
AND TSRA AFFECTING THE TERMINALS. IFR AND MVFR MOVING IN FROM
ALABAMA LOOKS TO MOVE IN PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AND INFLUENCE SITES
THROUGH 14Z. LOOKING FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO THE CSG
AREA BY MID MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSRA IN
ATL AND AREA SITES AS WELL AS AHN AND MCN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  69  86  69 /  60  40  50  20
ATLANTA         81  69  84  71 /  60  40  50  20
BLAIRSVILLE     76  63  79  64 /  70  50  50  30
CARTERSVILLE    80  68  84  68 /  70  40  50  30
COLUMBUS        85  71  87  72 /  60  40  50  30
GAINESVILLE     80  68  83  70 /  60  50  50  20
MACON           88  70  88  71 /  60  40  50  20
ROME            81  68  85  68 /  70  40  50  30
PEACHTREE CITY  82  69  85  69 /  60  40  50  20
VIDALIA         92  72  89  72 /  60  40  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 050547
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
147 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

..SOME NORTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARIES MAY FOCUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT ALONG WITH A LINE PUSHING
EASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED FOR HIGHER POPS AGAIN IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA WITH LATEST
CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING ALONG SOME LINGERING NORTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 828 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS WITH POP TRENDS GREATER IN WEST CENTRAL GA WITH
APPROACHING COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT SHOULD LOSE SOME STEAM BEFORE
MACON WITH LACK OF HEATING AND PREVIOUS COOL POOL FROM EARLIER
PRECIP. ALSO ADJUSTED SOME HIGHER POPS IN NORTH GA WITH APPROACH
OF UPPER LOW AND SOME MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP FILLING IN ACROSS
NORTH AL. THUNDER CHANCES GREATER IN THE SOUTH BUT ANY LOCATION
COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS
PVA INCREASES WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ALSO MADE LARGE ADJUSTMENTS
ON TEMP TRENDS THIS EVENING FROM THE LATE DAY SOLAR SHELTERING
KEEPING CENTRAL GA COOLER AND NORTH GA WARMER. HAVE ALSO UPDATED
THE QPF THRU TOMORROW GOING A BIT HIGHER THAN WPC GUIDANCE WITH
THE ENHANCED MOISTURE AND GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS IN PLACE...STILL
LOOKING AT SOME WIDESPREAD VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES THOUGH 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE AND HAVE KEPT CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOING FOR THE NORTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA HAS LED
TO A SOMEWHAT STABILIZED AIRMASS ACROSS THE METRO AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AND TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 80S.
FURTHER SOUTH...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
INTERACTING WITH ONGOING STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

FOR TONIGHT...NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION IS GETTING FIRED UP ACROSS
EASTERN MS AND WESTERN AL. THE HRRR AND THE WRF SHOW THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS APPROACHING THE AL/GA STATE LINE AROUND 00Z. BOTH THE HI-RES
MODELS WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE LINE...BUT THE
WRF HAS LESS COVERAGE THAN THE HRRR. NEITHER MODEL HAD A GREAT
HANDLE ON THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...UNTIL A FEW HOURS INTO IT.
SINCE THIS WOULD BE THE TIMING THAT THE UPPER LOW AND A LARGE AREA
OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSES THE CWFA...HAVE KEPT THE POPS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 85. THE MODELS DO PROG PRECIP
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE DECREASED THE
POPS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE FOR SUNDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THINK THE BEST TIMING FOR STORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
A BRIEF BREAK FROM WHAT SEEMS HAS BEEN A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF SHRA
AND TSRA AFFECTING THE TERMINALS. IFR AND MVFR MOVING IN FROM
ALABAMA LOOKS TO MOVE IN PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AND INFLUENCE SITES
THROUGH 14Z. LOOKING FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO THE CSG
AREA BY MID MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSRA IN
ATL AND AREA SITES AS WELL AS AHN AND MCN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  69  86  69 /  60  40  50  20
ATLANTA         81  69  84  71 /  60  40  50  20
BLAIRSVILLE     76  63  79  64 /  70  50  50  30
CARTERSVILLE    80  68  84  68 /  70  40  50  30
COLUMBUS        85  71  87  72 /  60  40  50  30
GAINESVILLE     80  68  83  70 /  60  50  50  20
MACON           88  70  88  71 /  60  40  50  20
ROME            81  68  85  68 /  70  40  50  30
PEACHTREE CITY  82  69  85  69 /  60  40  50  20
VIDALIA         92  72  89  72 /  60  40  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KCAE 050248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1048 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING GENERALLY RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NEW CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH A WEAKENING CLUSTER
OF STORMS PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA. THINK THE
AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE FOR THE NIGHT BUT THE REMNANTS OF THE
CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA COULD IMPACT PARTS OF
THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/NAM INDICATE THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE AND LIFT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE. CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND PREVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES AND DISSIPATING.NEXT BATCH
OF CONVECTION REMAINS OVER WESTERN GA AND IS ALSO DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY. FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT REMAINS LOW DUE TO INSTABILITY
AND MIXING ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL
ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE SHORT WAVE IN
WESTERN GA MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF
SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD AND WILL ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 05Z...THEN BECOME SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 16 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOWER CHANCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 050248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1048 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING GENERALLY RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NEW CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH A WEAKENING CLUSTER
OF STORMS PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA. THINK THE
AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE FOR THE NIGHT BUT THE REMNANTS OF THE
CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA COULD IMPACT PARTS OF
THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/NAM INDICATE THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE AND LIFT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE. CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND PREVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES AND DISSIPATING.NEXT BATCH
OF CONVECTION REMAINS OVER WESTERN GA AND IS ALSO DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY. FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT REMAINS LOW DUE TO INSTABILITY
AND MIXING ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL
ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE SHORT WAVE IN
WESTERN GA MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF
SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD AND WILL ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 05Z...THEN BECOME SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 16 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOWER CHANCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 050248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1048 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING GENERALLY RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NEW CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH A WEAKENING CLUSTER
OF STORMS PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA. THINK THE
AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE FOR THE NIGHT BUT THE REMNANTS OF THE
CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA COULD IMPACT PARTS OF
THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/NAM INDICATE THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE AND LIFT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE. CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND PREVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES AND DISSIPATING.NEXT BATCH
OF CONVECTION REMAINS OVER WESTERN GA AND IS ALSO DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY. FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT REMAINS LOW DUE TO INSTABILITY
AND MIXING ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL
ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE SHORT WAVE IN
WESTERN GA MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF
SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD AND WILL ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 05Z...THEN BECOME SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 16 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOWER CHANCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 050248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1048 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING GENERALLY RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NEW CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH A WEAKENING CLUSTER
OF STORMS PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA. THINK THE
AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE FOR THE NIGHT BUT THE REMNANTS OF THE
CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA COULD IMPACT PARTS OF
THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/NAM INDICATE THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE AND LIFT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE. CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND PREVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES AND DISSIPATING.NEXT BATCH
OF CONVECTION REMAINS OVER WESTERN GA AND IS ALSO DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY. FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT REMAINS LOW DUE TO INSTABILITY
AND MIXING ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL
ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE SHORT WAVE IN
WESTERN GA MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF
SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD AND WILL ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 05Z...THEN BECOME SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 16 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOWER CHANCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 050225 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1025 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING GENERALLY RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NEW CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH A WEAKENING CLUSTER
OF STORMS PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA. THINK THE
AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE FOR THE NIGHT BUT THE REMNANTS OF THE
CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA COULD IMPACT PARTS OF
THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/NAM INDICATE THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE AND LIFT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE. CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND PREVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH A
FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF OGB. EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT REMAINING LOW
DUE TO INSTABILITY AND MIXING ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE NOT MENTIONED
SHRA/TSRA ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 01Z...THEN
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH GUSTS UP
TO 16 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOWER CHANCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC



000
FXUS62 KCAE 050225 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1025 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING GENERALLY RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NEW CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH A WEAKENING CLUSTER
OF STORMS PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA. THINK THE
AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE FOR THE NIGHT BUT THE REMNANTS OF THE
CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA COULD IMPACT PARTS OF
THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/NAM INDICATE THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE AND LIFT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE. CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND PREVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH A
FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF OGB. EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT REMAINING LOW
DUE TO INSTABILITY AND MIXING ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE NOT MENTIONED
SHRA/TSRA ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 01Z...THEN
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH GUSTS UP
TO 16 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOWER CHANCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC




000
FXUS62 KCAE 050225 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1025 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING GENERALLY RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NEW CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH A WEAKENING CLUSTER
OF STORMS PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA. THINK THE
AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE FOR THE NIGHT BUT THE REMNANTS OF THE
CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA COULD IMPACT PARTS OF
THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/NAM INDICATE THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE AND LIFT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE. CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND PREVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH A
FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF OGB. EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT REMAINING LOW
DUE TO INSTABILITY AND MIXING ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE NOT MENTIONED
SHRA/TSRA ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 01Z...THEN
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH GUSTS UP
TO 16 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOWER CHANCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC




000
FXUS62 KCHS 050154
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
954 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LINGERING BATCH OF SHOWERS AROUND THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ALSO NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST. COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION
OVER WESTERN GEORGIA TRIES TO PUSH INTO INLAND AREAS AND SOME
CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPS OVER THE NEARBY ATLANTIC IN THE MORE
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON/EVE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15
KT. SEAS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...RJB/ST
MARINE...RJB/ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 050154
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
954 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LINGERING BATCH OF SHOWERS AROUND THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ALSO NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST. COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION
OVER WESTERN GEORGIA TRIES TO PUSH INTO INLAND AREAS AND SOME
CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPS OVER THE NEARBY ATLANTIC IN THE MORE
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON/EVE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15
KT. SEAS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...RJB/ST
MARINE...RJB/ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 050154
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
954 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LINGERING BATCH OF SHOWERS AROUND THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ALSO NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST. COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION
OVER WESTERN GEORGIA TRIES TO PUSH INTO INLAND AREAS AND SOME
CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPS OVER THE NEARBY ATLANTIC IN THE MORE
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON/EVE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15
KT. SEAS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...RJB/ST
MARINE...RJB/ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 050154
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
954 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LINGERING BATCH OF SHOWERS AROUND THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ALSO NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST. COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION
OVER WESTERN GEORGIA TRIES TO PUSH INTO INLAND AREAS AND SOME
CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPS OVER THE NEARBY ATLANTIC IN THE MORE
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL SHOWERS
AND TSTMS LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON/EVE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15
KT. SEAS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...RJB/ST
MARINE...RJB/ST




000
FXUS62 KFFC 050135
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
935 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...SOME NORTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARIES MAY FOCUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT ALONG WITH A LINE PUSHING
EASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH SUNDAY...

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED FOR HIGHER POPS AGAIN IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA WITH LATEST
CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING ALONG SOME LINGERING NORTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 828 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS WITH POP TRENDS GREATER IN WEST CENTRAL GA WITH
APPROACHING COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT SHOULD LOSE SOME STEAM BEFORE
MACON WITH LACK OF HEATING AND PREVIOUS COOL POOL FROM EARLIER
PRECIP. ALSO ADJUSTED SOME HIGHER POPS IN NORTH GA WITH APPROACH
OF UPPER LOW AND SOME MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP FILLING IN ACROSS
NORTH AL. THUNDER CHANCES GREATER IN THE SOUTH BUT ANY LOCATION
COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS
PVA INCREASES WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ALSO MADE LARGE ADJUSTMENTS
ON TEMP TRENDS THIS EVENING FROM THE LATE DAY SOLAR SHELTERING
KEEPING CENTRAL GA COOLER AND NORTH GA WARMER. HAVE ALSO UPDATED
THE QPF THRU TOMORROW GOING A BIT HIGHER THAN WPC GUIDANCE WITH
THE ENHANCED MOISTURE AND GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS IN PLACE...STILL
LOOKING AT SOME WIDESPREAD VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES THOUGH 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE AND HAVE KEPT CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOING FOR THE NORTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA HAS LED
TO A SOMEWHAT STABILIZED AIRMASS ACROSS THE METRO AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AND TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 80S.
FURTHER SOUTH...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
INTERACTING WITH ONGOING STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

FOR TONIGHT...NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION IS GETTING FIRED UP ACROSS
EASTERN MS AND WESTERN AL. THE HRRR AND THE WRF SHOW THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS APPROACHING THE AL/GA STATE LINE AROUND 00Z. BOTH THE HI-RES
MODELS WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE LINE...BUT THE
WRF HAS LESS COVERAGE THAN THE HRRR. NEITHER MODEL HAD A GREAT
HANDLE ON THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...UNTIL A FEW HOURS INTO IT.
SINCE THIS WOULD BE THE TIMING THAT THE UPPER LOW AND A LARGE AREA
OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSES THE CWFA...HAVE KEPT THE POPS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 85. THE MODELS DO PROG PRECIP
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE DECREASED THE
POPS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE FOR SUNDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THINK THE BEST TIMING FOR STORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
INITIALLY LOW END VFR CIGS WITH LOWER POTENTIAL WITH ANY PRECIP.
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT CIGS SHOULD LOWER INTO MVFR RANGE ALONG WITH
SOME REDUCED VSBYS POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA LOOKS TO
BE NEAR KCSG INITIALLY THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOMETHING DEVELOPING
NEAR THE REST OF THE SITES. PRECIP CHANCES ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
FOR SUNDAY WITH APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH WITH
PROB30 FOR -TSRA AFTER 19Z. CIGS AROUND 4-5 KFT FOR SUNDAY WITH
LOWER POSSIBLE AGAIN IN PRECIP AREA. WINDS STAYING MAINLY SW TO
WEST 3-7 KTS OVERNIGHT AND LOW END GUSTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO LOW ON EARLY MORNING CIGS/VSBYS AND PRECIP TIMING.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  84  69  86 /  50  60  40  50
ATLANTA         71  81  69  84 /  60  60  40  50
BLAIRSVILLE     64  76  63  79 /  70  70  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    69  80  68  84 /  70  70  40  50
COLUMBUS        71  85  71  87 /  70  60  40  50
GAINESVILLE     69  80  68  83 /  60  60  50  50
MACON           70  88  70  88 /  50  60  40  50
ROME            69  81  68  85 /  70  70  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  70  82  69  85 /  70  60  40  50
VIDALIA         72  92  72  89 /  40  60  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA/BAKER
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...BAKER



000
FXUS62 KFFC 050135
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
935 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...SOME NORTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARIES MAY FOCUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT ALONG WITH A LINE PUSHING
EASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH SUNDAY...

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED FOR HIGHER POPS AGAIN IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA WITH LATEST
CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING ALONG SOME LINGERING NORTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 828 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS WITH POP TRENDS GREATER IN WEST CENTRAL GA WITH
APPROACHING COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT SHOULD LOSE SOME STEAM BEFORE
MACON WITH LACK OF HEATING AND PREVIOUS COOL POOL FROM EARLIER
PRECIP. ALSO ADJUSTED SOME HIGHER POPS IN NORTH GA WITH APPROACH
OF UPPER LOW AND SOME MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP FILLING IN ACROSS
NORTH AL. THUNDER CHANCES GREATER IN THE SOUTH BUT ANY LOCATION
COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS
PVA INCREASES WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ALSO MADE LARGE ADJUSTMENTS
ON TEMP TRENDS THIS EVENING FROM THE LATE DAY SOLAR SHELTERING
KEEPING CENTRAL GA COOLER AND NORTH GA WARMER. HAVE ALSO UPDATED
THE QPF THRU TOMORROW GOING A BIT HIGHER THAN WPC GUIDANCE WITH
THE ENHANCED MOISTURE AND GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS IN PLACE...STILL
LOOKING AT SOME WIDESPREAD VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES THOUGH 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE AND HAVE KEPT CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOING FOR THE NORTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA HAS LED
TO A SOMEWHAT STABILIZED AIRMASS ACROSS THE METRO AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AND TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 80S.
FURTHER SOUTH...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
INTERACTING WITH ONGOING STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

FOR TONIGHT...NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION IS GETTING FIRED UP ACROSS
EASTERN MS AND WESTERN AL. THE HRRR AND THE WRF SHOW THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS APPROACHING THE AL/GA STATE LINE AROUND 00Z. BOTH THE HI-RES
MODELS WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE LINE...BUT THE
WRF HAS LESS COVERAGE THAN THE HRRR. NEITHER MODEL HAD A GREAT
HANDLE ON THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...UNTIL A FEW HOURS INTO IT.
SINCE THIS WOULD BE THE TIMING THAT THE UPPER LOW AND A LARGE AREA
OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSES THE CWFA...HAVE KEPT THE POPS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 85. THE MODELS DO PROG PRECIP
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE DECREASED THE
POPS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE FOR SUNDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THINK THE BEST TIMING FOR STORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
INITIALLY LOW END VFR CIGS WITH LOWER POTENTIAL WITH ANY PRECIP.
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT CIGS SHOULD LOWER INTO MVFR RANGE ALONG WITH
SOME REDUCED VSBYS POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA LOOKS TO
BE NEAR KCSG INITIALLY THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOMETHING DEVELOPING
NEAR THE REST OF THE SITES. PRECIP CHANCES ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
FOR SUNDAY WITH APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH WITH
PROB30 FOR -TSRA AFTER 19Z. CIGS AROUND 4-5 KFT FOR SUNDAY WITH
LOWER POSSIBLE AGAIN IN PRECIP AREA. WINDS STAYING MAINLY SW TO
WEST 3-7 KTS OVERNIGHT AND LOW END GUSTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO LOW ON EARLY MORNING CIGS/VSBYS AND PRECIP TIMING.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  84  69  86 /  50  60  40  50
ATLANTA         71  81  69  84 /  60  60  40  50
BLAIRSVILLE     64  76  63  79 /  70  70  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    69  80  68  84 /  70  70  40  50
COLUMBUS        71  85  71  87 /  70  60  40  50
GAINESVILLE     69  80  68  83 /  60  60  50  50
MACON           70  88  70  88 /  50  60  40  50
ROME            69  81  68  85 /  70  70  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  70  82  69  85 /  70  60  40  50
VIDALIA         72  92  72  89 /  40  60  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA/BAKER
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS62 KFFC 050028
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
828 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...ALTHOUGH AN EVENING LULL IN PRECIP ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES LIKELY...

.UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS WITH POP TRENDS GREATER IN WEST CENTRAL GA WITH
APPROACHING COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT SHOULD LOSE SOME STEAM BEFORE
MACON WITH LACK OF HEATING AND PREVIOUS COOL POOL FROM EARLIER
PRECIP. ALSO ADJUSTED SOME HIGHER POPS IN NORTH GA WITH APPROACH
OF UPPER LOW AND SOME MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP FILLING IN ACROSS
NORTH AL. THUNDER CHANCES GREATER IN THE SOUTH BUT ANY LOCATION
COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS
PVA INCREASES WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ALSO MADE LARGE ADJUSTMENTS
ON TEMP TRENDS THIS EVENING FROM THE LATE DAY SOLAR SHELTERING
KEEPING CENTRAL GA COOLER AND NORTH GA WARMER. HAVE ALSO UPDATED
THE QPF THRU TOMORROW GOING A BIT HIGHER THAN WPC GUIDANCE WITH
THE ENHANCED MOISTURE AND GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS IN PLACE...STILL
LOOKING AT SOME WIDESPREAD VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES THOUGH 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE AND HAVE KEPT CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOING FOR THE NORTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA HAS LED
TO A SOMEWHAT STABILIZED AIRMASS ACROSS THE METRO AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AND TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 80S.
FURTHER SOUTH...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
INTERACTING WITH ONGOING STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

FOR TONIGHT...NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION IS GETTING FIRED UP ACROSS
EASTERN MS AND WESTERN AL. THE HRRR AND THE WRF SHOW THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS APPROACHING THE AL/GA STATE LINE AROUND 00Z. BOTH THE HI-RES
MODELS WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE LINE...BUT THE
WRF HAS LESS COVERAGE THAN THE HRRR. NEITHER MODEL HAD A GREAT
HANDLE ON THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...UNTIL A FEW HOURS INTO IT.
SINCE THIS WOULD BE THE TIMING THAT THE UPPER LOW AND A LARGE AREA
OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSES THE CWFA...HAVE KEPT THE POPS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 85. THE MODELS DO PROG PRECIP
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE DECREASED THE
POPS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE FOR SUNDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THINK THE BEST TIMING FOR STORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
INITIALLY LOW END VFR CIGS WITH LOWER POTENTIAL WITH ANY PRECIP.
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT CIGS SHOULD LOWER INTO MVFR RANGE ALONG WITH
SOME REDUCED VSBYS POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA LOOKS TO
BE NEAR KCSG INITIALLY THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOMETHING DEVELOPING
NEAR THE REST OF THE SITES. PRECIP CHANCES ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
FOR SUNDAY WITH APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH WITH
PROB30 FOR -TSRA AFTER 19Z. CIGS AROUND 4-5 KFT FOR SUNDAY WITH
LOWER POSSIBLE AGAIN IN PRECIP AREA. WINDS STAYING MAINLY SW TO
WEST 3-7 KTS OVERNIGHT AND LOW END GUSTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO LOW ON EARLY MORNING CIGS/VSBYS AND PRECIP TIMING.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  84  69  86 /  50  60  40  50
ATLANTA         71  81  69  84 /  60  60  40  50
BLAIRSVILLE     64  76  63  79 /  70  70  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    69  80  68  84 /  70  70  40  50
COLUMBUS        71  85  71  87 /  80  60  40  50
GAINESVILLE     69  80  68  83 /  60  60  50  50
MACON           70  88  70  88 /  50  60  40  50
ROME            69  81  68  85 /  70  70  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  70  82  69  85 /  70  60  40  50
VIDALIA         72  92  72  89 /  40  60  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA/BAKER
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS62 KCAE 042358
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
758 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HELPED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA
WITH CONVECTION INITIATING ON THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFTING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA JUST SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO REMOVE THEM FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LITTLE THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

THERE IS ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AT THIS TIME...DRIVEN MY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THAT WILL TRY TO MAKE A
RUN TOWARDS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 21Z
RUN OF THE HRRR KEEPS MUCH OF THAT ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST AND LIFTS
IT NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN GA AND INTO THE UPSTATE BUT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING ITS EVOLUTION THIS EVENING.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH A
FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF OGB. EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT REMAINING LOW
DUE TO INSTABILITY AND MIXING ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE NOT MENTIONED
SHRA/TSRA ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 01Z...THEN
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH GUSTS UP
TO 16 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOWER CHANCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 042358
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
758 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HELPED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA
WITH CONVECTION INITIATING ON THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFTING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA JUST SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO REMOVE THEM FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LITTLE THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

THERE IS ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AT THIS TIME...DRIVEN MY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THAT WILL TRY TO MAKE A
RUN TOWARDS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 21Z
RUN OF THE HRRR KEEPS MUCH OF THAT ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST AND LIFTS
IT NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN GA AND INTO THE UPSTATE BUT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING ITS EVOLUTION THIS EVENING.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH A
FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF OGB. EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT REMAINING LOW
DUE TO INSTABILITY AND MIXING ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE NOT MENTIONED
SHRA/TSRA ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 01Z...THEN
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH GUSTS UP
TO 16 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOWER CHANCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 042251 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HELPED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA
WITH CONVECTION INITIATING ON THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFTING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA JUST SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO REMOVE THEM FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LITTLE THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

THERE IS ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AT THIS TIME...DRIVEN MY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THAT WILL TRY TO MAKE A
RUN TOWARDS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 21Z
RUN OF THE HRRR KEEPS MUCH OF THAT ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST AND LIFTS
IT NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN GA AND INTO THE UPSTATE BUT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING ITS EVOLUTION THIS EVENING.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY
AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED THE
GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY SOUTH
AND NORTH OF THE TERMINALS IN THE SHORT TERM. DESPITE THE LOSS OF
HEATING THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. CONTINUED WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC




000
FXUS62 KCAE 042251 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HELPED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA
WITH CONVECTION INITIATING ON THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFTING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA JUST SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO REMOVE THEM FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LITTLE THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

THERE IS ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AT THIS TIME...DRIVEN MY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THAT WILL TRY TO MAKE A
RUN TOWARDS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 21Z
RUN OF THE HRRR KEEPS MUCH OF THAT ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST AND LIFTS
IT NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN GA AND INTO THE UPSTATE BUT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING ITS EVOLUTION THIS EVENING.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY
AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED THE
GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY SOUTH
AND NORTH OF THE TERMINALS IN THE SHORT TERM. DESPITE THE LOSS OF
HEATING THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. CONTINUED WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC




000
FXUS62 KCAE 042251 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HELPED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA
WITH CONVECTION INITIATING ON THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFTING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA JUST SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO REMOVE THEM FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LITTLE THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

THERE IS ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AT THIS TIME...DRIVEN MY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THAT WILL TRY TO MAKE A
RUN TOWARDS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 21Z
RUN OF THE HRRR KEEPS MUCH OF THAT ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST AND LIFTS
IT NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN GA AND INTO THE UPSTATE BUT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING ITS EVOLUTION THIS EVENING.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY
AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED THE
GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY SOUTH
AND NORTH OF THE TERMINALS IN THE SHORT TERM. DESPITE THE LOSS OF
HEATING THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. CONTINUED WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC



000
FXUS62 KCAE 042251 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HELPED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA
WITH CONVECTION INITIATING ON THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFTING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA JUST SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO REMOVE THEM FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LITTLE THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

THERE IS ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AT THIS TIME...DRIVEN MY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THAT WILL TRY TO MAKE A
RUN TOWARDS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 21Z
RUN OF THE HRRR KEEPS MUCH OF THAT ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST AND LIFTS
IT NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN GA AND INTO THE UPSTATE BUT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING ITS EVOLUTION THIS EVENING.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY
AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED THE
GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY SOUTH
AND NORTH OF THE TERMINALS IN THE SHORT TERM. DESPITE THE LOSS OF
HEATING THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. CONTINUED WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC



000
FXUS62 KCHS 042235
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
635 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A PERSISTENT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT CONTINUES TO
ROUND ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR DEEP MOISTURE WITHIN
A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS THAT APPROACH 2.0
INCHES.

THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT
WITH A SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. A
FEW OF THESE PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE
UNTIL SUNSET...MAINLY IN COASTAL COUNTIES. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 800-1000 J/KG. FURTHER NORTH...THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MORE
QUESTIONABLE...PARTICULARLY IN TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE LCL AND LFC
HEIGHTS HAVE BECOME HIGHER. HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AHEAD
OF BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TRI-COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE POSITION OF AN ENHANCED LOW-LVL WIND FIELD JUST TO OUR NORTH.

OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT OVER SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS
ALL AREAS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN AN HOUR OF SUNSET.
HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST GIVEN SOME ONGOING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
GREATEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR NEAR COASTAL
AREAS. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE...STARTING AT THE
SAV TERMINAL AROUND 20Z AND AT THE CHS TERMINAL AROUND 21-22Z.
TEMPO MVFR GROUPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AT BOTH TERMINALS...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20Z/21Z TO
00Z/01Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN EARLY
TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS...THEN PERSIST INTO AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY
MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE GENERALLY
BECOMING 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
A BIT AS WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE PERIOD...BUT OVERALL SHOULD RANGE
BETWEEN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/ST
MARINE...DPB/ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 042235
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
635 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A PERSISTENT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT CONTINUES TO
ROUND ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR DEEP MOISTURE WITHIN
A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS THAT APPROACH 2.0
INCHES.

THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT
WITH A SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. A
FEW OF THESE PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE
UNTIL SUNSET...MAINLY IN COASTAL COUNTIES. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 800-1000 J/KG. FURTHER NORTH...THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MORE
QUESTIONABLE...PARTICULARLY IN TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE LCL AND LFC
HEIGHTS HAVE BECOME HIGHER. HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AHEAD
OF BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TRI-COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE POSITION OF AN ENHANCED LOW-LVL WIND FIELD JUST TO OUR NORTH.

OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT OVER SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS
ALL AREAS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN AN HOUR OF SUNSET.
HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST GIVEN SOME ONGOING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
GREATEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR NEAR COASTAL
AREAS. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE...STARTING AT THE
SAV TERMINAL AROUND 20Z AND AT THE CHS TERMINAL AROUND 21-22Z.
TEMPO MVFR GROUPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AT BOTH TERMINALS...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20Z/21Z TO
00Z/01Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN EARLY
TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS...THEN PERSIST INTO AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY
MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE GENERALLY
BECOMING 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
A BIT AS WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE PERIOD...BUT OVERALL SHOULD RANGE
BETWEEN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/ST
MARINE...DPB/ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 042235
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
635 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A PERSISTENT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT CONTINUES TO
ROUND ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR DEEP MOISTURE WITHIN
A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS THAT APPROACH 2.0
INCHES.

THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT
WITH A SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. A
FEW OF THESE PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE
UNTIL SUNSET...MAINLY IN COASTAL COUNTIES. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 800-1000 J/KG. FURTHER NORTH...THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MORE
QUESTIONABLE...PARTICULARLY IN TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE LCL AND LFC
HEIGHTS HAVE BECOME HIGHER. HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AHEAD
OF BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TRI-COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE POSITION OF AN ENHANCED LOW-LVL WIND FIELD JUST TO OUR NORTH.

OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT OVER SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS
ALL AREAS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN AN HOUR OF SUNSET.
HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST GIVEN SOME ONGOING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
GREATEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR NEAR COASTAL
AREAS. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE...STARTING AT THE
SAV TERMINAL AROUND 20Z AND AT THE CHS TERMINAL AROUND 21-22Z.
TEMPO MVFR GROUPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AT BOTH TERMINALS...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20Z/21Z TO
00Z/01Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN EARLY
TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS...THEN PERSIST INTO AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY
MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE GENERALLY
BECOMING 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
A BIT AS WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE PERIOD...BUT OVERALL SHOULD RANGE
BETWEEN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/ST
MARINE...DPB/ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 042235
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
635 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A PERSISTENT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT CONTINUES TO
ROUND ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR DEEP MOISTURE WITHIN
A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS THAT APPROACH 2.0
INCHES.

THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT
WITH A SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. A
FEW OF THESE PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE
UNTIL SUNSET...MAINLY IN COASTAL COUNTIES. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 800-1000 J/KG. FURTHER NORTH...THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MORE
QUESTIONABLE...PARTICULARLY IN TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE LCL AND LFC
HEIGHTS HAVE BECOME HIGHER. HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AHEAD
OF BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TRI-COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE POSITION OF AN ENHANCED LOW-LVL WIND FIELD JUST TO OUR NORTH.

OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT OVER SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS
ALL AREAS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN AN HOUR OF SUNSET.
HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST GIVEN SOME ONGOING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
GREATEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR NEAR COASTAL
AREAS. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE...STARTING AT THE
SAV TERMINAL AROUND 20Z AND AT THE CHS TERMINAL AROUND 21-22Z.
TEMPO MVFR GROUPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AT BOTH TERMINALS...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20Z/21Z TO
00Z/01Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN EARLY
TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS...THEN PERSIST INTO AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY
MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE GENERALLY
BECOMING 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
A BIT AS WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE PERIOD...BUT OVERALL SHOULD RANGE
BETWEEN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/ST
MARINE...DPB/ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041947
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
347 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...A PERSISTENT MID LVL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT CONTINUES TO ROUND ITS SOUTHERN
BASE OVER PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
PATTERN WILL FAVOR DEEP MOISTURE WITHIN A WEST/SOUTHWEST
FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS THAT APPROACH 2.0 INCHES.

THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE SOUTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CREATED BY
PREVIOUS CONVECTION TO THE NORTH EARLIER TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND GRADUALLY TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST WITHIN A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. A
FEW OF THESE PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE
AS THEY CROSS OVER OR NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LATEST MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 3000 TO 3500 J/KG ACROSS
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS AMOUNT OF ENERGY ALONG WITH
DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000-1200 J/KG AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

FURTHER NORTH...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MORE QUESTIONABLE
GIVEN THE POSITION OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS NOW SLOWLY SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST INTO AREAS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THE TRI-COUNTY
AREA IN PARTICULAR REMAINS SOMEWHAT LESS UNSTABLE GIVEN PREVIOUS
CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
AHEAD OF A SEABREEZE CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
HIGHER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-40 KT LOW LVL JET.

OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT OVER SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS
ALL AREAS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN ONGOING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. GREATEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR NEAR COASTAL AREAS. LOW TEMPS
SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE...STARTING AT THE
SAV TERMINAL AROUND 20Z AND AT THE CHS TERMINAL AROUND 21-22Z.
TEMPO MVFR GROUPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AT BOTH TERMINALS...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20Z/21Z TO
00Z/01Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN EARLY
TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS...THEN PERSIST INTO AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY
MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE GENERALLY
BECOMING 10-15 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AS
WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE PERIOD...BUT OVERALL SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/ST
MARINE...DPB/ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 041947
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
347 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...A PERSISTENT MID LVL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT CONTINUES TO ROUND ITS SOUTHERN
BASE OVER PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
PATTERN WILL FAVOR DEEP MOISTURE WITHIN A WEST/SOUTHWEST
FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS THAT APPROACH 2.0 INCHES.

THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE SOUTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CREATED BY
PREVIOUS CONVECTION TO THE NORTH EARLIER TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND GRADUALLY TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST WITHIN A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. A
FEW OF THESE PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE
AS THEY CROSS OVER OR NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LATEST MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 3000 TO 3500 J/KG ACROSS
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS AMOUNT OF ENERGY ALONG WITH
DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000-1200 J/KG AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

FURTHER NORTH...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MORE QUESTIONABLE
GIVEN THE POSITION OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS NOW SLOWLY SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST INTO AREAS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THE TRI-COUNTY
AREA IN PARTICULAR REMAINS SOMEWHAT LESS UNSTABLE GIVEN PREVIOUS
CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
AHEAD OF A SEABREEZE CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
HIGHER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-40 KT LOW LVL JET.

OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT OVER SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS
ALL AREAS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN ONGOING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. GREATEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR NEAR COASTAL AREAS. LOW TEMPS
SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE...STARTING AT THE
SAV TERMINAL AROUND 20Z AND AT THE CHS TERMINAL AROUND 21-22Z.
TEMPO MVFR GROUPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AT BOTH TERMINALS...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20Z/21Z TO
00Z/01Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN EARLY
TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS...THEN PERSIST INTO AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY
MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE GENERALLY
BECOMING 10-15 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AS
WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE PERIOD...BUT OVERALL SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/ST
MARINE...DPB/ST




000
FXUS62 KFFC 041853
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
253 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA HAS LED
TO A SOMEWHAT STABILIZED AIRMASS ACROSS THE METRO AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AND TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 80S.
FURTHER SOUTH...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
INTERACTING WITH ONGOING STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

FOR TONIGHT...NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION IS GETTING FIRED UP ACROSS
EASTERN MS AND WESTERN AL. THE HRRR AND THE WRF SHOW THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS APPROACHING THE AL/GA STATE LINE AROUND 00Z. BOTH THE HI-RES
MODELS WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE LINE...BUT THE
WRF HAS LESS COVERAGE THAN THE HRRR. NEITHER MODEL HAD A GREAT
HANDLE ON THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...UNTIL A FEW HOURS INTO IT.
SINCE THIS WOULD BE THE TIMING THAT THE UPPER LOW AND A LARGE AREA
OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSES THE CWFA...HAVE KEPT THE POPS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 85. THE MODELS DO PROG PRECIP
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE DECREASED THE
POPS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE FOR SUNDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THINK THE BEST TIMING FOR STORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS ACROSS
NORTHERN GA. HI-RES MODELS ARE INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
AGAIN AFTER 00Z AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES EAST IN THE FLOW. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE. MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  84  69  86 /  50  60  40  50
ATLANTA         70  81  69  84 /  60  60  40  50
BLAIRSVILLE     63  76  63  79 /  60  60  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    68  80  68  84 /  70  60  40  50
COLUMBUS        72  85  71  87 /  60  60  40  50
GAINESVILLE     68  80  68  83 /  60  60  50  50
MACON           71  88  70  88 /  30  60  40  50
ROME            68  81  68  85 /  70  60  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  69  82  69  85 /  60  60  40  50
VIDALIA         73  92  72  89 /  30  60  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA



000
FXUS62 KFFC 041853
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
253 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA HAS LED
TO A SOMEWHAT STABILIZED AIRMASS ACROSS THE METRO AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AND TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 80S.
FURTHER SOUTH...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
INTERACTING WITH ONGOING STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

FOR TONIGHT...NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION IS GETTING FIRED UP ACROSS
EASTERN MS AND WESTERN AL. THE HRRR AND THE WRF SHOW THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS APPROACHING THE AL/GA STATE LINE AROUND 00Z. BOTH THE HI-RES
MODELS WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE LINE...BUT THE
WRF HAS LESS COVERAGE THAN THE HRRR. NEITHER MODEL HAD A GREAT
HANDLE ON THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...UNTIL A FEW HOURS INTO IT.
SINCE THIS WOULD BE THE TIMING THAT THE UPPER LOW AND A LARGE AREA
OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSES THE CWFA...HAVE KEPT THE POPS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 85. THE MODELS DO PROG PRECIP
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE DECREASED THE
POPS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE FOR SUNDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THINK THE BEST TIMING FOR STORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS ACROSS
NORTHERN GA. HI-RES MODELS ARE INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
AGAIN AFTER 00Z AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES EAST IN THE FLOW. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE. MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  84  69  86 /  50  60  40  50
ATLANTA         70  81  69  84 /  60  60  40  50
BLAIRSVILLE     63  76  63  79 /  60  60  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    68  80  68  84 /  70  60  40  50
COLUMBUS        72  85  71  87 /  60  60  40  50
GAINESVILLE     68  80  68  83 /  60  60  50  50
MACON           71  88  70  88 /  30  60  40  50
ROME            68  81  68  85 /  70  60  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  69  82  69  85 /  60  60  40  50
VIDALIA         73  92  72  89 /  30  60  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA



000
FXUS62 KFFC 041853
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
253 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA HAS LED
TO A SOMEWHAT STABILIZED AIRMASS ACROSS THE METRO AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AND TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 80S.
FURTHER SOUTH...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
INTERACTING WITH ONGOING STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

FOR TONIGHT...NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION IS GETTING FIRED UP ACROSS
EASTERN MS AND WESTERN AL. THE HRRR AND THE WRF SHOW THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS APPROACHING THE AL/GA STATE LINE AROUND 00Z. BOTH THE HI-RES
MODELS WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE LINE...BUT THE
WRF HAS LESS COVERAGE THAN THE HRRR. NEITHER MODEL HAD A GREAT
HANDLE ON THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...UNTIL A FEW HOURS INTO IT.
SINCE THIS WOULD BE THE TIMING THAT THE UPPER LOW AND A LARGE AREA
OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSES THE CWFA...HAVE KEPT THE POPS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 85. THE MODELS DO PROG PRECIP
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE DECREASED THE
POPS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE FOR SUNDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THINK THE BEST TIMING FOR STORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS ACROSS
NORTHERN GA. HI-RES MODELS ARE INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
AGAIN AFTER 00Z AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES EAST IN THE FLOW. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE. MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  84  69  86 /  50  60  40  50
ATLANTA         70  81  69  84 /  60  60  40  50
BLAIRSVILLE     63  76  63  79 /  60  60  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    68  80  68  84 /  70  60  40  50
COLUMBUS        72  85  71  87 /  60  60  40  50
GAINESVILLE     68  80  68  83 /  60  60  50  50
MACON           71  88  70  88 /  30  60  40  50
ROME            68  81  68  85 /  70  60  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  69  82  69  85 /  60  60  40  50
VIDALIA         73  92  72  89 /  30  60  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA



000
FXUS62 KFFC 041853
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
253 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA HAS LED
TO A SOMEWHAT STABILIZED AIRMASS ACROSS THE METRO AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AND TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 80S.
FURTHER SOUTH...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
INTERACTING WITH ONGOING STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

FOR TONIGHT...NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION IS GETTING FIRED UP ACROSS
EASTERN MS AND WESTERN AL. THE HRRR AND THE WRF SHOW THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS APPROACHING THE AL/GA STATE LINE AROUND 00Z. BOTH THE HI-RES
MODELS WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE LINE...BUT THE
WRF HAS LESS COVERAGE THAN THE HRRR. NEITHER MODEL HAD A GREAT
HANDLE ON THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...UNTIL A FEW HOURS INTO IT.
SINCE THIS WOULD BE THE TIMING THAT THE UPPER LOW AND A LARGE AREA
OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSES THE CWFA...HAVE KEPT THE POPS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 85. THE MODELS DO PROG PRECIP
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE DECREASED THE
POPS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE FOR SUNDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THINK THE BEST TIMING FOR STORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS ACROSS
NORTHERN GA. HI-RES MODELS ARE INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
AGAIN AFTER 00Z AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES EAST IN THE FLOW. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE. MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  84  69  86 /  50  60  40  50
ATLANTA         70  81  69  84 /  60  60  40  50
BLAIRSVILLE     63  76  63  79 /  60  60  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    68  80  68  84 /  70  60  40  50
COLUMBUS        72  85  71  87 /  60  60  40  50
GAINESVILLE     68  80  68  83 /  60  60  50  50
MACON           71  88  70  88 /  30  60  40  50
ROME            68  81  68  85 /  70  60  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  69  82  69  85 /  60  60  40  50
VIDALIA         73  92  72  89 /  30  60  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA



000
FXUS62 KFFC 041853
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
253 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA HAS LED
TO A SOMEWHAT STABILIZED AIRMASS ACROSS THE METRO AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AND TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 80S.
FURTHER SOUTH...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
INTERACTING WITH ONGOING STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

FOR TONIGHT...NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION IS GETTING FIRED UP ACROSS
EASTERN MS AND WESTERN AL. THE HRRR AND THE WRF SHOW THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS APPROACHING THE AL/GA STATE LINE AROUND 00Z. BOTH THE HI-RES
MODELS WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE LINE...BUT THE
WRF HAS LESS COVERAGE THAN THE HRRR. NEITHER MODEL HAD A GREAT
HANDLE ON THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...UNTIL A FEW HOURS INTO IT.
SINCE THIS WOULD BE THE TIMING THAT THE UPPER LOW AND A LARGE AREA
OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSES THE CWFA...HAVE KEPT THE POPS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 85. THE MODELS DO PROG PRECIP
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE DECREASED THE
POPS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE FOR SUNDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THINK THE BEST TIMING FOR STORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS ACROSS
NORTHERN GA. HI-RES MODELS ARE INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
AGAIN AFTER 00Z AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES EAST IN THE FLOW. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE. MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  84  69  86 /  50  60  40  50
ATLANTA         70  81  69  84 /  60  60  40  50
BLAIRSVILLE     63  76  63  79 /  60  60  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    68  80  68  84 /  70  60  40  50
COLUMBUS        72  85  71  87 /  60  60  40  50
GAINESVILLE     68  80  68  83 /  60  60  50  50
MACON           71  88  70  88 /  30  60  40  50
ROME            68  81  68  85 /  70  60  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  69  82  69  85 /  60  60  40  50
VIDALIA         73  92  72  89 /  30  60  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA



000
FXUS62 KFFC 041853
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
253 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA HAS LED
TO A SOMEWHAT STABILIZED AIRMASS ACROSS THE METRO AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AND TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 80S.
FURTHER SOUTH...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
INTERACTING WITH ONGOING STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

FOR TONIGHT...NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION IS GETTING FIRED UP ACROSS
EASTERN MS AND WESTERN AL. THE HRRR AND THE WRF SHOW THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS APPROACHING THE AL/GA STATE LINE AROUND 00Z. BOTH THE HI-RES
MODELS WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE LINE...BUT THE
WRF HAS LESS COVERAGE THAN THE HRRR. NEITHER MODEL HAD A GREAT
HANDLE ON THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...UNTIL A FEW HOURS INTO IT.
SINCE THIS WOULD BE THE TIMING THAT THE UPPER LOW AND A LARGE AREA
OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSES THE CWFA...HAVE KEPT THE POPS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 85. THE MODELS DO PROG PRECIP
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE DECREASED THE
POPS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE FOR SUNDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THINK THE BEST TIMING FOR STORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS ACROSS
NORTHERN GA. HI-RES MODELS ARE INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
AGAIN AFTER 00Z AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES EAST IN THE FLOW. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE. MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  84  69  86 /  50  60  40  50
ATLANTA         70  81  69  84 /  60  60  40  50
BLAIRSVILLE     63  76  63  79 /  60  60  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    68  80  68  84 /  70  60  40  50
COLUMBUS        72  85  71  87 /  60  60  40  50
GAINESVILLE     68  80  68  83 /  60  60  50  50
MACON           71  88  70  88 /  30  60  40  50
ROME            68  81  68  85 /  70  60  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  69  82  69  85 /  60  60  40  50
VIDALIA         73  92  72  89 /  30  60  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA




000
FXUS62 KCAE 041805
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF MODERATE
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
INSTABILITY WITH CLOUD COVER PREVENTING STRONG HEATING. THE MOST
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAINED CONFINED TO THE SOUTH SECTION
WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED WITH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDINESS. EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTH PART THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH...SHOWERS
WERE SCATTERED AND WEAK.

ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD AFFECT
THE AREA TONIGHT MAINTAINING A CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYED AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
MAINLY THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY
AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED THE
GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY SOUTH
AND NORTH OF THE TERMINALS IN THE SHORT TERM. DESPITE THE LOSS OF
HEATING THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. CONTINUED WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 041805
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF MODERATE
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
INSTABILITY WITH CLOUD COVER PREVENTING STRONG HEATING. THE MOST
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAINED CONFINED TO THE SOUTH SECTION
WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED WITH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDINESS. EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTH PART THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH...SHOWERS
WERE SCATTERED AND WEAK.

ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD AFFECT
THE AREA TONIGHT MAINTAINING A CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYED AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
MAINLY THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY
AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED THE
GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY SOUTH
AND NORTH OF THE TERMINALS IN THE SHORT TERM. DESPITE THE LOSS OF
HEATING THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. CONTINUED WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041754
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
154 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...A PERSISTENT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
CONTINUES TO ROUND ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR DEEP MOISTURE WITHIN A
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS THAT APPROACH 2.0
INCHES.

LATEST RADAR MOSAICS INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF SOUTH/CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
QUITE UNSTABLE SOUTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CREATED BY PREVIOUS
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH EARLIER TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA AND GRADUALLY
TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST WITHIN A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FEW OF THESE
PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE AS THEY CROSS
OVER OR NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THEM.

LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AHEAD OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 3500 TO
4000 J/KG ACROSS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS AMOUNT OF
ENERGY ALONG WITH DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. AS ACTIVITY
SLOWLY TRACKS EAST/NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THERE WILL BE STRONGER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-40 KT LOW
LVL JET. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OTHER THAN THE NOTED SCENARIO ABOVE...A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP ALONG A SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE BULK OF PRECIP ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AWAY FROM
THE COAST...HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE SFC HEATING IS
STRONGEST.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN A BIT...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SOME PASSING UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...HIGHEST INLAND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CLOSER TO 90. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW GIVEN
REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE
INFLUENCE. HIGHS A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE...STARTING AT THE
SAV TERMINAL AROUND 20Z AND THE CHS AROUND 21-22Z. TEMPO MVFR
GROUPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AT BOTH TERMINALS...MAINLY ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20Z/21Z TO 00Z/01Z. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN EARLY TONIGHT AT BOTH
TERMINALS...THEN PERSIST INTO AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SPEEDS UP TO 15 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AS
WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE PERIOD...BUT OVERALL SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES TODAY. IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM
SOUTH ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A
HIGH-END LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041754
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
154 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...A PERSISTENT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
CONTINUES TO ROUND ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR DEEP MOISTURE WITHIN A
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS THAT APPROACH 2.0
INCHES.

LATEST RADAR MOSAICS INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF SOUTH/CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
QUITE UNSTABLE SOUTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CREATED BY PREVIOUS
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH EARLIER TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA AND GRADUALLY
TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST WITHIN A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FEW OF THESE
PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE AS THEY CROSS
OVER OR NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THEM.

LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AHEAD OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 3500 TO
4000 J/KG ACROSS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS AMOUNT OF
ENERGY ALONG WITH DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. AS ACTIVITY
SLOWLY TRACKS EAST/NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THERE WILL BE STRONGER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-40 KT LOW
LVL JET. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OTHER THAN THE NOTED SCENARIO ABOVE...A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP ALONG A SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE BULK OF PRECIP ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AWAY FROM
THE COAST...HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE SFC HEATING IS
STRONGEST.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN A BIT...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SOME PASSING UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...HIGHEST INLAND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CLOSER TO 90. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW GIVEN
REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE
INFLUENCE. HIGHS A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE...STARTING AT THE
SAV TERMINAL AROUND 20Z AND THE CHS AROUND 21-22Z. TEMPO MVFR
GROUPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AT BOTH TERMINALS...MAINLY ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20Z/21Z TO 00Z/01Z. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN EARLY TONIGHT AT BOTH
TERMINALS...THEN PERSIST INTO AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SPEEDS UP TO 15 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AS
WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE PERIOD...BUT OVERALL SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES TODAY. IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM
SOUTH ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A
HIGH-END LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 041754
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
154 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...A PERSISTENT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
CONTINUES TO ROUND ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR DEEP MOISTURE WITHIN A
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS THAT APPROACH 2.0
INCHES.

LATEST RADAR MOSAICS INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF SOUTH/CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
QUITE UNSTABLE SOUTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CREATED BY PREVIOUS
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH EARLIER TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA AND GRADUALLY
TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST WITHIN A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FEW OF THESE
PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE AS THEY CROSS
OVER OR NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THEM.

LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AHEAD OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 3500 TO
4000 J/KG ACROSS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS AMOUNT OF
ENERGY ALONG WITH DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. AS ACTIVITY
SLOWLY TRACKS EAST/NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THERE WILL BE STRONGER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-40 KT LOW
LVL JET. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OTHER THAN THE NOTED SCENARIO ABOVE...A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP ALONG A SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE BULK OF PRECIP ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AWAY FROM
THE COAST...HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE SFC HEATING IS
STRONGEST.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN A BIT...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SOME PASSING UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...HIGHEST INLAND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CLOSER TO 90. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW GIVEN
REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE
INFLUENCE. HIGHS A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE...STARTING AT THE
SAV TERMINAL AROUND 20Z AND THE CHS AROUND 21-22Z. TEMPO MVFR
GROUPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AT BOTH TERMINALS...MAINLY ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20Z/21Z TO 00Z/01Z. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN EARLY TONIGHT AT BOTH
TERMINALS...THEN PERSIST INTO AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SPEEDS UP TO 15 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AS
WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE PERIOD...BUT OVERALL SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES TODAY. IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM
SOUTH ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A
HIGH-END LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041754
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
154 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...A PERSISTENT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
CONTINUES TO ROUND ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR DEEP MOISTURE WITHIN A
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS THAT APPROACH 2.0
INCHES.

LATEST RADAR MOSAICS INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF SOUTH/CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
QUITE UNSTABLE SOUTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CREATED BY PREVIOUS
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH EARLIER TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA AND GRADUALLY
TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST WITHIN A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FEW OF THESE
PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE AS THEY CROSS
OVER OR NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THEM.

LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AHEAD OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 3500 TO
4000 J/KG ACROSS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS AMOUNT OF
ENERGY ALONG WITH DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. AS ACTIVITY
SLOWLY TRACKS EAST/NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THERE WILL BE STRONGER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-40 KT LOW
LVL JET. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OTHER THAN THE NOTED SCENARIO ABOVE...A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP ALONG A SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE BULK OF PRECIP ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AWAY FROM
THE COAST...HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE SFC HEATING IS
STRONGEST.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN A BIT...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SOME PASSING UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...HIGHEST INLAND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CLOSER TO 90. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW GIVEN
REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE
INFLUENCE. HIGHS A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE...STARTING AT THE
SAV TERMINAL AROUND 20Z AND THE CHS AROUND 21-22Z. TEMPO MVFR
GROUPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AT BOTH TERMINALS...MAINLY ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20Z/21Z TO 00Z/01Z. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN EARLY TONIGHT AT BOTH
TERMINALS...THEN PERSIST INTO AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SPEEDS UP TO 15 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AS
WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE PERIOD...BUT OVERALL SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES TODAY. IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM
SOUTH ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A
HIGH-END LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041754
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
154 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...A PERSISTENT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
CONTINUES TO ROUND ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR DEEP MOISTURE WITHIN A
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS THAT APPROACH 2.0
INCHES.

LATEST RADAR MOSAICS INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF SOUTH/CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
QUITE UNSTABLE SOUTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CREATED BY PREVIOUS
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH EARLIER TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA AND GRADUALLY
TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST WITHIN A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FEW OF THESE
PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE AS THEY CROSS
OVER OR NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THEM.

LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AHEAD OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 3500 TO
4000 J/KG ACROSS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS AMOUNT OF
ENERGY ALONG WITH DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. AS ACTIVITY
SLOWLY TRACKS EAST/NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THERE WILL BE STRONGER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-40 KT LOW
LVL JET. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OTHER THAN THE NOTED SCENARIO ABOVE...A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP ALONG A SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE BULK OF PRECIP ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AWAY FROM
THE COAST...HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE SFC HEATING IS
STRONGEST.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN A BIT...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SOME PASSING UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...HIGHEST INLAND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CLOSER TO 90. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW GIVEN
REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE
INFLUENCE. HIGHS A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE...STARTING AT THE
SAV TERMINAL AROUND 20Z AND THE CHS AROUND 21-22Z. TEMPO MVFR
GROUPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AT BOTH TERMINALS...MAINLY ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20Z/21Z TO 00Z/01Z. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN EARLY TONIGHT AT BOTH
TERMINALS...THEN PERSIST INTO AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SPEEDS UP TO 15 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AS
WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE PERIOD...BUT OVERALL SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES TODAY. IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM
SOUTH ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A
HIGH-END LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041754
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
154 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...A PERSISTENT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
CONTINUES TO ROUND ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR DEEP MOISTURE WITHIN A
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS THAT APPROACH 2.0
INCHES.

LATEST RADAR MOSAICS INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF SOUTH/CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
QUITE UNSTABLE SOUTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CREATED BY PREVIOUS
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH EARLIER TODAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA AND GRADUALLY
TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST WITHIN A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FEW OF THESE
PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE AS THEY CROSS
OVER OR NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THEM.

LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AHEAD OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 3500 TO
4000 J/KG ACROSS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS AMOUNT OF
ENERGY ALONG WITH DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. AS ACTIVITY
SLOWLY TRACKS EAST/NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THERE WILL BE STRONGER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-40 KT LOW
LVL JET. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OTHER THAN THE NOTED SCENARIO ABOVE...A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP ALONG A SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE BULK OF PRECIP ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AWAY FROM
THE COAST...HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE SFC HEATING IS
STRONGEST.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN A BIT...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SOME PASSING UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...HIGHEST INLAND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CLOSER TO 90. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW GIVEN
REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE
INFLUENCE. HIGHS A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE...STARTING AT THE
SAV TERMINAL AROUND 20Z AND THE CHS AROUND 21-22Z. TEMPO MVFR
GROUPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AT BOTH TERMINALS...MAINLY ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20Z/21Z TO 00Z/01Z. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN EARLY TONIGHT AT BOTH
TERMINALS...THEN PERSIST INTO AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SPEEDS UP TO 15 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AS
WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE PERIOD...BUT OVERALL SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES TODAY. IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM
SOUTH ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A
HIGH-END LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB




000
FXUS62 KFFC 041739
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
139 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015



.UPDATE...
A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN GA SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD BE
MORE CELLULAR IN NATURE AND ISOLD/SCT IN COVERAGE. FURTHER
SOUTH...MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED GOOD HEATING UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL GA. OVER
THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...HAVE NOTICED A FEW HOLES DEVELOP IN THE
COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND CENTRAL MS. DO THINK THE FIRST
BREAK IN THE PRECIP MAY REACH US SOMETIME DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS.
THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS RAIN RE-DEVELOPING IN THE WEST BY 7-8PM. THIS
IS WHAT IS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS...SO SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THIS
NOW AND WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE.

HAVE ALSO BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN UNDER THE RAIN SHIELD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
THE START OF INDEPENDENCE DAY HAS BEEN PRETTY SOGGY FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES FAVORABLE
FOR TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...SO HAVE PULLED BACK ON THE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE FOR TODAY. THINK THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
DUE TO STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. WILL HAVE
TO TAKE A LOOK AT HIGH TEMPS AGAIN TOWARDS MID MORNING.

NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH MORE PRECIPITATION MOVING
IN FROM ALABAMA. ALL IN ALL WE ARE IN A VERY MOIST NEAR ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WHICH CONTINUES TO SEND ONE WAVE AFTER ANOTHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED OCCASIONAL TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TIMING AND INTENSITY OF EACH
WAVE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON. THIS IS A VERY RAPIDLY
CHANGING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE ONLY CONSTANT BEING NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA GETTING MORE AND MORE PRECIPITATION EVERY HOUR. THE
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVER ALL AGREEMENT BUT THEY ARE ALSO
SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. ONE GOOD THING
IS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON SO SHOULD MAINLY SEE JUST GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE LOW.
HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MOVING IN OUT
OF ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF WE SEE ANY THEY SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. THE SAME SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR SUNDAY
AS WELL. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING
FOR 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS ACROSS NORTH GA THROUGH SUNDAY.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS ACROSS
NORTHERN GA. HI-RES MODELS ARE INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
AGAIN AFTER 00Z AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES EAST IN THE FLOW. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE. MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          81  70  85  69 / 100  50  60  40
ATLANTA         80  71  84  70 / 100  60  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     74  64  78  63 /  90  70  70  50
CARTERSVILLE    80  68  83  67 / 100  70  70  40
COLUMBUS        87  72  87  71 /  50  60  60  40
GAINESVILLE     80  69  82  68 / 100  60  60  50
MACON           86  71  89  70 /  40  40  60  40
ROME            80  69  83  68 / 100  70  70  40
PEACHTREE CITY  81  70  84  69 / 100  60  60  40
VIDALIA         91  71  91  72 /  40  40  60  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 041739
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
139 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015



.UPDATE...
A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN GA SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD BE
MORE CELLULAR IN NATURE AND ISOLD/SCT IN COVERAGE. FURTHER
SOUTH...MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED GOOD HEATING UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL GA. OVER
THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...HAVE NOTICED A FEW HOLES DEVELOP IN THE
COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND CENTRAL MS. DO THINK THE FIRST
BREAK IN THE PRECIP MAY REACH US SOMETIME DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS.
THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS RAIN RE-DEVELOPING IN THE WEST BY 7-8PM. THIS
IS WHAT IS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS...SO SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THIS
NOW AND WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE.

HAVE ALSO BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN UNDER THE RAIN SHIELD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
THE START OF INDEPENDENCE DAY HAS BEEN PRETTY SOGGY FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES FAVORABLE
FOR TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...SO HAVE PULLED BACK ON THE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE FOR TODAY. THINK THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
DUE TO STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. WILL HAVE
TO TAKE A LOOK AT HIGH TEMPS AGAIN TOWARDS MID MORNING.

NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH MORE PRECIPITATION MOVING
IN FROM ALABAMA. ALL IN ALL WE ARE IN A VERY MOIST NEAR ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WHICH CONTINUES TO SEND ONE WAVE AFTER ANOTHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED OCCASIONAL TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TIMING AND INTENSITY OF EACH
WAVE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON. THIS IS A VERY RAPIDLY
CHANGING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE ONLY CONSTANT BEING NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA GETTING MORE AND MORE PRECIPITATION EVERY HOUR. THE
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVER ALL AGREEMENT BUT THEY ARE ALSO
SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. ONE GOOD THING
IS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON SO SHOULD MAINLY SEE JUST GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE LOW.
HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MOVING IN OUT
OF ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF WE SEE ANY THEY SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. THE SAME SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR SUNDAY
AS WELL. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING
FOR 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS ACROSS NORTH GA THROUGH SUNDAY.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS ACROSS
NORTHERN GA. HI-RES MODELS ARE INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
AGAIN AFTER 00Z AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES EAST IN THE FLOW. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE. MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          81  70  85  69 / 100  50  60  40
ATLANTA         80  71  84  70 / 100  60  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     74  64  78  63 /  90  70  70  50
CARTERSVILLE    80  68  83  67 / 100  70  70  40
COLUMBUS        87  72  87  71 /  50  60  60  40
GAINESVILLE     80  69  82  68 / 100  60  60  50
MACON           86  71  89  70 /  40  40  60  40
ROME            80  69  83  68 / 100  70  70  40
PEACHTREE CITY  81  70  84  69 / 100  60  60  40
VIDALIA         91  71  91  72 /  40  40  60  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 041642
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1242 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING. THE MOST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR TRENDS
INDICATED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND
CLOUD COVER PREVENTING STRONG HEATING.

CONTINUED WEAK INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 041642
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1242 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING. THE MOST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR TRENDS
INDICATED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND
CLOUD COVER PREVENTING STRONG HEATING.

CONTINUED WEAK INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 041642
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1242 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING. THE MOST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR TRENDS
INDICATED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND
CLOUD COVER PREVENTING STRONG HEATING.

CONTINUED WEAK INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 041642
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1242 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING. THE MOST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR TRENDS
INDICATED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND
CLOUD COVER PREVENTING STRONG HEATING.

CONTINUED WEAK INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 041518
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1118 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING. THE MOST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...REMAINING THERE
INTO MONDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING
CUTOFF LOW...AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CHANCE TO
LOW END LIKELY POPS APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
POPS FOR MONDAY SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES...BUT CLOUD COVER
COULD KEEP THOSE READINGS SLIGHTLY LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH FLATTENS
OUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER PATTERN
HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE
GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS
TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WENT WITH
DIURNAL GENERATED POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONGER TERM. FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR TRENDS
INDICATED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND
CLOUD COVER PREVENTING STRONG HEATING.

CONTINUED WEAK INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 041518
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1118 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING. THE MOST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...REMAINING THERE
INTO MONDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING
CUTOFF LOW...AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CHANCE TO
LOW END LIKELY POPS APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
POPS FOR MONDAY SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES...BUT CLOUD COVER
COULD KEEP THOSE READINGS SLIGHTLY LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH FLATTENS
OUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER PATTERN
HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE
GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS
TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WENT WITH
DIURNAL GENERATED POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONGER TERM. FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR TRENDS
INDICATED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND
CLOUD COVER PREVENTING STRONG HEATING.

CONTINUED WEAK INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 041518
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1118 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING. THE MOST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...REMAINING THERE
INTO MONDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING
CUTOFF LOW...AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CHANCE TO
LOW END LIKELY POPS APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
POPS FOR MONDAY SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES...BUT CLOUD COVER
COULD KEEP THOSE READINGS SLIGHTLY LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH FLATTENS
OUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER PATTERN
HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE
GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS
TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WENT WITH
DIURNAL GENERATED POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONGER TERM. FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR TRENDS
INDICATED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND
CLOUD COVER PREVENTING STRONG HEATING.

CONTINUED WEAK INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 041518
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1118 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING. THE MOST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...REMAINING THERE
INTO MONDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING
CUTOFF LOW...AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CHANCE TO
LOW END LIKELY POPS APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
POPS FOR MONDAY SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES...BUT CLOUD COVER
COULD KEEP THOSE READINGS SLIGHTLY LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH FLATTENS
OUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER PATTERN
HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE
GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS
TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WENT WITH
DIURNAL GENERATED POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONGER TERM. FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR TRENDS
INDICATED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND
CLOUD COVER PREVENTING STRONG HEATING.

CONTINUED WEAK INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KFFC 041503
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1103 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015



.UPDATE...
MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL GA. OVER
THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...HAVE NOTICED A FEW HOLES DEVELOP IN THE
COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND CENTRAL MS. DO THINK THE FIRST
BREAK IN THE PRECIP MAY REACH US SOMETIME DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS.
THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS RAIN RE-DEVELOPING IN THE WEST BY 7-8PM. THIS
IS WHAT IS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS...SO SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THIS
NOW AND WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE.

HAVE ALSO BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN UNDER THE RAIN SHIELD.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
THE START OF INDEPENDENCE DAY HAS BEEN PRETTY SOGGY FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES FAVORABLE
FOR TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...SO HAVE PULLED BACK ON THE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE FOR TODAY. THINK THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
DUE TO STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. WILL HAVE
TO TAKE A LOOK AT HIGH TEMPS AGAIN TOWARDS MID MORNING.

NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH MORE PRECIPITATION MOVING
IN FROM ALABAMA. ALL IN ALL WE ARE IN A VERY MOIST NEAR ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WHICH CONTINUES TO SEND ONE WAVE AFTER ANOTHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED OCCASIONAL TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TIMING AND INTENSITY OF EACH
WAVE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON. THIS IS A VERY RAPIDLY
CHANGING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE ONLY CONSTANT BEING NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA GETTING MORE AND MORE PRECIPITATION EVERY HOUR. THE
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVER ALL AGREEMENT BUT THEY ARE ALSO
SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. ONE GOOD THING
IS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON SO SHOULD MAINLY SEE JUST GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE LOW.
HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MOVING IN OUT
OF ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF WE SEE ANY THEY SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. THE SAME SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR SUNDAY
AS WELL. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING
FOR 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS ACROSS NORTH GA THROUGH SUNDAY.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS LINING UP ALL THE WAY BACK
THROUGH ARKANSAS. THERE ARE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES MOVING IN FROM
AL BUT ITS MAINLY SHOWERS FOR NOW. THE ATL AREA TAF SITES WILL
SEE PRECIP OFF AND ON THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST IN THE 6-16KT RANGE. WILL SEE HIGHER
GUST WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
BE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  70  85  69 / 100  60  60  40
ATLANTA         83  71  84  70 / 100  70  70  40
BLAIRSVILLE     75  64  78  63 / 100  70  70  50
CARTERSVILLE    81  68  83  67 / 100  70  70  40
COLUMBUS        87  72  87  71 /  60  60  70  40
GAINESVILLE     79  69  82  68 / 100  70  70  50
MACON           90  71  89  70 /  50  60  70  40
ROME            82  69  83  68 / 100  70  70  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  70  84  69 / 100  70  70  40
VIDALIA         93  71  91  72 /  40  40  70  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041501
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1101 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A PERSISTENT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
CONTINUES TO ROUND ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR DEEP MOISTURE WITHIN A
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS THAT APPROACH 2.0
INCHES.

SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL PRECIP POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING. LATEST RADAR MOSAICS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA...LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH H5 SHORTWAVES THAT
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE AREA. THESE COMPLEXES SHOULD
GENERALLY TRACK JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A SLIGHTLY BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT PUSH SOUTH OF THESE COMPLEXES
COULD BE A FOCAL POINT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MOST OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL TAKE ON A WEST-EAST
ORIENTATION BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY...WHICH IS PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW OFF THE SFC. THIS SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...THUS
NOT IMPACTING THE AREA UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SBCAPES
APPROACHING 2500 TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...DCAPE VALUES NEAR 800-1000 J/KG AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THUS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF BEING STRONG OF SEVERE WHILE MOVING OVER THE AREA. BEST
CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...MAINLY DUE TO STRONGER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-40 KT LOW LVL JET. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT THEM A FEW DEGREES IN SOME AREAS.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SOME PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...HIGHEST INLAND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CLOSER TO 90. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW GIVEN
REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE
INFLUENCE. HIGHS A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AND COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS. A TEMPO
GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV FROM 20-24Z TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE MOST
LIKELY TIMING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD
OCCUR NEAR KCHS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
IS MENTIONED IN THE TAF BEGINNING AT 16Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. LOOK FOR SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 KT
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL COULD SUBSIDE A BIT AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVER THE PERIOD...BUT OVERALL SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES TODAY. IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM
SOUTH ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A
HIGH-END LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 041501
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1101 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A PERSISTENT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
CONTINUES TO ROUND ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR DEEP MOISTURE WITHIN A
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS THAT APPROACH 2.0
INCHES.

SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL PRECIP POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING. LATEST RADAR MOSAICS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA...LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH H5 SHORTWAVES THAT
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE AREA. THESE COMPLEXES SHOULD
GENERALLY TRACK JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A SLIGHTLY BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT PUSH SOUTH OF THESE COMPLEXES
COULD BE A FOCAL POINT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MOST OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL TAKE ON A WEST-EAST
ORIENTATION BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY...WHICH IS PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW OFF THE SFC. THIS SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...THUS
NOT IMPACTING THE AREA UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SBCAPES
APPROACHING 2500 TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...DCAPE VALUES NEAR 800-1000 J/KG AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THUS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF BEING STRONG OF SEVERE WHILE MOVING OVER THE AREA. BEST
CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...MAINLY DUE TO STRONGER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-40 KT LOW LVL JET. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT THEM A FEW DEGREES IN SOME AREAS.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SOME PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...HIGHEST INLAND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CLOSER TO 90. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW GIVEN
REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE
INFLUENCE. HIGHS A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AND COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS. A TEMPO
GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV FROM 20-24Z TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE MOST
LIKELY TIMING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD
OCCUR NEAR KCHS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
IS MENTIONED IN THE TAF BEGINNING AT 16Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. LOOK FOR SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 KT
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL COULD SUBSIDE A BIT AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVER THE PERIOD...BUT OVERALL SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES TODAY. IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM
SOUTH ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A
HIGH-END LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 041501
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1101 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A PERSISTENT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
CONTINUES TO ROUND ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR DEEP MOISTURE WITHIN A
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS THAT APPROACH 2.0
INCHES.

SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL PRECIP POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING. LATEST RADAR MOSAICS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA...LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH H5 SHORTWAVES THAT
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE AREA. THESE COMPLEXES SHOULD
GENERALLY TRACK JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A SLIGHTLY BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT PUSH SOUTH OF THESE COMPLEXES
COULD BE A FOCAL POINT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MOST OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL TAKE ON A WEST-EAST
ORIENTATION BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY...WHICH IS PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW OFF THE SFC. THIS SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...THUS
NOT IMPACTING THE AREA UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SBCAPES
APPROACHING 2500 TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...DCAPE VALUES NEAR 800-1000 J/KG AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THUS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF BEING STRONG OF SEVERE WHILE MOVING OVER THE AREA. BEST
CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...MAINLY DUE TO STRONGER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-40 KT LOW LVL JET. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT THEM A FEW DEGREES IN SOME AREAS.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SOME PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...HIGHEST INLAND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CLOSER TO 90. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW GIVEN
REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE
INFLUENCE. HIGHS A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AND COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS. A TEMPO
GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV FROM 20-24Z TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE MOST
LIKELY TIMING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD
OCCUR NEAR KCHS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
IS MENTIONED IN THE TAF BEGINNING AT 16Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. LOOK FOR SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 KT
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL COULD SUBSIDE A BIT AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVER THE PERIOD...BUT OVERALL SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES TODAY. IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM
SOUTH ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A
HIGH-END LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 041501
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1101 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A PERSISTENT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
CONTINUES TO ROUND ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR DEEP MOISTURE WITHIN A
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS THAT APPROACH 2.0
INCHES.

SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL PRECIP POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING. LATEST RADAR MOSAICS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA...LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH H5 SHORTWAVES THAT
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE AREA. THESE COMPLEXES SHOULD
GENERALLY TRACK JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A SLIGHTLY BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT PUSH SOUTH OF THESE COMPLEXES
COULD BE A FOCAL POINT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MOST OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL TAKE ON A WEST-EAST
ORIENTATION BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY...WHICH IS PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW OFF THE SFC. THIS SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...THUS
NOT IMPACTING THE AREA UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SBCAPES
APPROACHING 2500 TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...DCAPE VALUES NEAR 800-1000 J/KG AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THUS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF BEING STRONG OF SEVERE WHILE MOVING OVER THE AREA. BEST
CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...MAINLY DUE TO STRONGER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-40 KT LOW LVL JET. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT THEM A FEW DEGREES IN SOME AREAS.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SOME PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...HIGHEST INLAND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CLOSER TO 90. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW GIVEN
REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE
INFLUENCE. HIGHS A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AND COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS. A TEMPO
GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV FROM 20-24Z TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE MOST
LIKELY TIMING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD
OCCUR NEAR KCHS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
IS MENTIONED IN THE TAF BEGINNING AT 16Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. LOOK FOR SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 KT
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL COULD SUBSIDE A BIT AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVER THE PERIOD...BUT OVERALL SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES TODAY. IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM
SOUTH ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A
HIGH-END LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 041501
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1101 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A PERSISTENT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
CONTINUES TO ROUND ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR DEEP MOISTURE WITHIN A
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS THAT APPROACH 2.0
INCHES.

SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL PRECIP POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING. LATEST RADAR MOSAICS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA...LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH H5 SHORTWAVES THAT
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE AREA. THESE COMPLEXES SHOULD
GENERALLY TRACK JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A SLIGHTLY BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT PUSH SOUTH OF THESE COMPLEXES
COULD BE A FOCAL POINT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MOST OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL TAKE ON A WEST-EAST
ORIENTATION BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY...WHICH IS PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW OFF THE SFC. THIS SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...THUS
NOT IMPACTING THE AREA UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SBCAPES
APPROACHING 2500 TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...DCAPE VALUES NEAR 800-1000 J/KG AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THUS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF BEING STRONG OF SEVERE WHILE MOVING OVER THE AREA. BEST
CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...MAINLY DUE TO STRONGER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-40 KT LOW LVL JET. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT THEM A FEW DEGREES IN SOME AREAS.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SOME PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...HIGHEST INLAND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CLOSER TO 90. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW GIVEN
REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE
INFLUENCE. HIGHS A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AND COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS. A TEMPO
GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV FROM 20-24Z TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE MOST
LIKELY TIMING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD
OCCUR NEAR KCHS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
IS MENTIONED IN THE TAF BEGINNING AT 16Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. LOOK FOR SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 KT
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL COULD SUBSIDE A BIT AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVER THE PERIOD...BUT OVERALL SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES TODAY. IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM
SOUTH ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A
HIGH-END LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 041501
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1101 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A PERSISTENT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
CONTINUES TO ROUND ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR DEEP MOISTURE WITHIN A
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS THAT APPROACH 2.0
INCHES.

SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL PRECIP POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING. LATEST RADAR MOSAICS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA...LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH H5 SHORTWAVES THAT
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE AREA. THESE COMPLEXES SHOULD
GENERALLY TRACK JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A SLIGHTLY BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT PUSH SOUTH OF THESE COMPLEXES
COULD BE A FOCAL POINT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MOST OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL TAKE ON A WEST-EAST
ORIENTATION BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY...WHICH IS PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW OFF THE SFC. THIS SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...THUS
NOT IMPACTING THE AREA UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SBCAPES
APPROACHING 2500 TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...DCAPE VALUES NEAR 800-1000 J/KG AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THUS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF BEING STRONG OF SEVERE WHILE MOVING OVER THE AREA. BEST
CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...MAINLY DUE TO STRONGER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-40 KT LOW LVL JET. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT THEM A FEW DEGREES IN SOME AREAS.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SOME PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...HIGHEST INLAND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CLOSER TO 90. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW GIVEN
REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE
INFLUENCE. HIGHS A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AND COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS. A TEMPO
GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV FROM 20-24Z TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE MOST
LIKELY TIMING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD
OCCUR NEAR KCHS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
IS MENTIONED IN THE TAF BEGINNING AT 16Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. LOOK FOR SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 KT
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL COULD SUBSIDE A BIT AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVER THE PERIOD...BUT OVERALL SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES TODAY. IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM
SOUTH ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A
HIGH-END LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB




000
FXUS62 KFFC 041250
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
850 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015



.UPDATE...
THE START OF INDEPENDENCE DAY HAS BEEN PRETTY SOGGY FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES FAVORABLE
FOR TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...SO HAVE PULLED BACK ON THE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE FOR TODAY. THINK THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
DUE TO STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. WILL HAVE
TO TAKE A LOOK AT HIGH TEMPS AGAIN TOWARDS MID MORNING.

NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH MORE PRECIPITATION MOVING
IN FROM ALABAMA. ALL IN ALL WE ARE IN A VERY MOIST NEAR ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WHICH CONTINUES TO SEND ONE WAVE AFTER ANOTHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED OCCASIONAL TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TIMING AND INTENSITY OF EACH
WAVE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON. THIS IS A VERY RAPIDLY
CHANGING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE ONLY CONSTANT BEING NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA GETTING MORE AND MORE PRECIPITATION EVERY HOUR. THE
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVER ALL AGREEMENT BUT THEY ARE ALSO
SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. ONE GOOD THING
IS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON SO SHOULD MAINLY SEE JUST GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE LOW.
HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MOVING IN OUT
OF ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF WE SEE ANY THEY SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. THE SAME SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR SUNDAY
AS WELL. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING
FOR 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS ACROSS NORTH GA THROUGH SUNDAY.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS LINING UP ALL THE WAY BACK
THROUGH ARKANSAS. THERE ARE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES MOVING IN FROM
AL BUT ITS MAINLY SHOWERS FOR NOW. THE ATL AREA TAF SITES WILL
SEE PRECIP OFF AND ON THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST IN THE 6-16KT RANGE. WILL SEE HIGHER
GUST WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
BE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  70  85  69 / 100  60  60  40
ATLANTA         83  71  84  70 / 100  70  70  40
BLAIRSVILLE     75  64  78  63 / 100  70  70  50
CARTERSVILLE    81  68  83  67 / 100  70  70  40
COLUMBUS        87  72  87  71 /  60  60  70  40
GAINESVILLE     79  69  82  68 / 100  70  70  50
MACON           90  71  89  70 /  50  60  70  40
ROME            82  69  83  68 / 100  70  70  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  70  84  69 / 100  70  70  40
VIDALIA         93  71  91  72 /  40  40  70  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...
TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 041250
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
850 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015



.UPDATE...
THE START OF INDEPENDENCE DAY HAS BEEN PRETTY SOGGY FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES FAVORABLE
FOR TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...SO HAVE PULLED BACK ON THE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE FOR TODAY. THINK THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
DUE TO STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. WILL HAVE
TO TAKE A LOOK AT HIGH TEMPS AGAIN TOWARDS MID MORNING.

NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH MORE PRECIPITATION MOVING
IN FROM ALABAMA. ALL IN ALL WE ARE IN A VERY MOIST NEAR ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WHICH CONTINUES TO SEND ONE WAVE AFTER ANOTHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED OCCASIONAL TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TIMING AND INTENSITY OF EACH
WAVE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON. THIS IS A VERY RAPIDLY
CHANGING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE ONLY CONSTANT BEING NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA GETTING MORE AND MORE PRECIPITATION EVERY HOUR. THE
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVER ALL AGREEMENT BUT THEY ARE ALSO
SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. ONE GOOD THING
IS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON SO SHOULD MAINLY SEE JUST GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE LOW.
HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MOVING IN OUT
OF ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF WE SEE ANY THEY SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. THE SAME SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR SUNDAY
AS WELL. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING
FOR 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS ACROSS NORTH GA THROUGH SUNDAY.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS LINING UP ALL THE WAY BACK
THROUGH ARKANSAS. THERE ARE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES MOVING IN FROM
AL BUT ITS MAINLY SHOWERS FOR NOW. THE ATL AREA TAF SITES WILL
SEE PRECIP OFF AND ON THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST IN THE 6-16KT RANGE. WILL SEE HIGHER
GUST WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
BE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  70  85  69 / 100  60  60  40
ATLANTA         83  71  84  70 / 100  70  70  40
BLAIRSVILLE     75  64  78  63 / 100  70  70  50
CARTERSVILLE    81  68  83  67 / 100  70  70  40
COLUMBUS        87  72  87  71 /  60  60  70  40
GAINESVILLE     79  69  82  68 / 100  70  70  50
MACON           90  71  89  70 /  50  60  70  40
ROME            82  69  83  68 / 100  70  70  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  70  84  69 / 100  70  70  40
VIDALIA         93  71  91  72 /  40  40  70  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...
TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 041250
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
850 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015



.UPDATE...
THE START OF INDEPENDENCE DAY HAS BEEN PRETTY SOGGY FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES FAVORABLE
FOR TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...SO HAVE PULLED BACK ON THE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE FOR TODAY. THINK THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
DUE TO STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. WILL HAVE
TO TAKE A LOOK AT HIGH TEMPS AGAIN TOWARDS MID MORNING.

NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH MORE PRECIPITATION MOVING
IN FROM ALABAMA. ALL IN ALL WE ARE IN A VERY MOIST NEAR ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WHICH CONTINUES TO SEND ONE WAVE AFTER ANOTHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED OCCASIONAL TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TIMING AND INTENSITY OF EACH
WAVE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON. THIS IS A VERY RAPIDLY
CHANGING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE ONLY CONSTANT BEING NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA GETTING MORE AND MORE PRECIPITATION EVERY HOUR. THE
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVER ALL AGREEMENT BUT THEY ARE ALSO
SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. ONE GOOD THING
IS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON SO SHOULD MAINLY SEE JUST GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE LOW.
HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MOVING IN OUT
OF ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF WE SEE ANY THEY SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. THE SAME SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR SUNDAY
AS WELL. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING
FOR 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS ACROSS NORTH GA THROUGH SUNDAY.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS LINING UP ALL THE WAY BACK
THROUGH ARKANSAS. THERE ARE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES MOVING IN FROM
AL BUT ITS MAINLY SHOWERS FOR NOW. THE ATL AREA TAF SITES WILL
SEE PRECIP OFF AND ON THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST IN THE 6-16KT RANGE. WILL SEE HIGHER
GUST WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
BE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  70  85  69 / 100  60  60  40
ATLANTA         83  71  84  70 / 100  70  70  40
BLAIRSVILLE     75  64  78  63 / 100  70  70  50
CARTERSVILLE    81  68  83  67 / 100  70  70  40
COLUMBUS        87  72  87  71 /  60  60  70  40
GAINESVILLE     79  69  82  68 / 100  70  70  50
MACON           90  71  89  70 /  50  60  70  40
ROME            82  69  83  68 / 100  70  70  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  70  84  69 / 100  70  70  40
VIDALIA         93  71  91  72 /  40  40  70  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...
TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 041157
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
757 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE HRRR DISPLAYED NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE 300 PM
TO 500 PM TIME FRAME. THE ARW AND SPC WRF HAD LESS COVERAGE.
UPSTREAM SHOWERS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING SUPPORTS THE HRRR. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BECAUSE
OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS SHOW THE JET WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. USED THE COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...REMAINING THERE
INTO MONDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING
CUTOFF LOW...AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CHANCE TO
LOW END LIKELY POPS APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
POPS FOR MONDAY SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES...BUT CLOUD COVER
COULD KEEP THOSE READINGS SLIGHTLY LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH FLATTENS
OUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER PATTERN
HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE
GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS
TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WENT WITH
DIURNAL GENERATED POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONGER TERM. FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
OBSERVATION TRENDS PLUS THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT THERE WILL BE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE HRRR DISPLAYED NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE 300 PM
TO 500 PM TIME FRAME. THE ARW AND SPC WRF HAD LESS COVERAGE.
UPSTREAM SHOWERS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING SUPPORTS THE HRRR. THE LOW-LEVEL JET SUGGESTS VERY
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS EXPLICITLY IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A
VICINITY MENTION DURING THE MOST LIKELY TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 041157
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
757 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE HRRR DISPLAYED NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE 300 PM
TO 500 PM TIME FRAME. THE ARW AND SPC WRF HAD LESS COVERAGE.
UPSTREAM SHOWERS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING SUPPORTS THE HRRR. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BECAUSE
OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS SHOW THE JET WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. USED THE COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...REMAINING THERE
INTO MONDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING
CUTOFF LOW...AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CHANCE TO
LOW END LIKELY POPS APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
POPS FOR MONDAY SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES...BUT CLOUD COVER
COULD KEEP THOSE READINGS SLIGHTLY LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH FLATTENS
OUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER PATTERN
HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE
GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS
TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WENT WITH
DIURNAL GENERATED POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONGER TERM. FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
OBSERVATION TRENDS PLUS THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT THERE WILL BE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE HRRR DISPLAYED NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE 300 PM
TO 500 PM TIME FRAME. THE ARW AND SPC WRF HAD LESS COVERAGE.
UPSTREAM SHOWERS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING SUPPORTS THE HRRR. THE LOW-LEVEL JET SUGGESTS VERY
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS EXPLICITLY IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A
VICINITY MENTION DURING THE MOST LIKELY TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 041157
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
757 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE HRRR DISPLAYED NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE 300 PM
TO 500 PM TIME FRAME. THE ARW AND SPC WRF HAD LESS COVERAGE.
UPSTREAM SHOWERS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING SUPPORTS THE HRRR. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BECAUSE
OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS SHOW THE JET WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. USED THE COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...REMAINING THERE
INTO MONDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING
CUTOFF LOW...AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CHANCE TO
LOW END LIKELY POPS APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
POPS FOR MONDAY SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES...BUT CLOUD COVER
COULD KEEP THOSE READINGS SLIGHTLY LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH FLATTENS
OUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER PATTERN
HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE
GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS
TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WENT WITH
DIURNAL GENERATED POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONGER TERM. FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
OBSERVATION TRENDS PLUS THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT THERE WILL BE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE HRRR DISPLAYED NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE 300 PM
TO 500 PM TIME FRAME. THE ARW AND SPC WRF HAD LESS COVERAGE.
UPSTREAM SHOWERS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING SUPPORTS THE HRRR. THE LOW-LEVEL JET SUGGESTS VERY
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS EXPLICITLY IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A
VICINITY MENTION DURING THE MOST LIKELY TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 041157
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
757 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE HRRR DISPLAYED NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE 300 PM
TO 500 PM TIME FRAME. THE ARW AND SPC WRF HAD LESS COVERAGE.
UPSTREAM SHOWERS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING SUPPORTS THE HRRR. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BECAUSE
OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS SHOW THE JET WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. USED THE COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...REMAINING THERE
INTO MONDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING
CUTOFF LOW...AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CHANCE TO
LOW END LIKELY POPS APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
POPS FOR MONDAY SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES...BUT CLOUD COVER
COULD KEEP THOSE READINGS SLIGHTLY LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH FLATTENS
OUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER PATTERN
HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE
GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS
TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WENT WITH
DIURNAL GENERATED POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONGER TERM. FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
OBSERVATION TRENDS PLUS THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT THERE WILL BE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE HRRR DISPLAYED NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE 300 PM
TO 500 PM TIME FRAME. THE ARW AND SPC WRF HAD LESS COVERAGE.
UPSTREAM SHOWERS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING SUPPORTS THE HRRR. THE LOW-LEVEL JET SUGGESTS VERY
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS EXPLICITLY IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A
VICINITY MENTION DURING THE MOST LIKELY TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 041157
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
757 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE HRRR DISPLAYED NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE 300 PM
TO 500 PM TIME FRAME. THE ARW AND SPC WRF HAD LESS COVERAGE.
UPSTREAM SHOWERS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING SUPPORTS THE HRRR. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BECAUSE
OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS SHOW THE JET WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. USED THE COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...REMAINING THERE
INTO MONDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING
CUTOFF LOW...AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CHANCE TO
LOW END LIKELY POPS APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
POPS FOR MONDAY SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES...BUT CLOUD COVER
COULD KEEP THOSE READINGS SLIGHTLY LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH FLATTENS
OUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER PATTERN
HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE
GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS
TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WENT WITH
DIURNAL GENERATED POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONGER TERM. FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
OBSERVATION TRENDS PLUS THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT THERE WILL BE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE HRRR DISPLAYED NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE 300 PM
TO 500 PM TIME FRAME. THE ARW AND SPC WRF HAD LESS COVERAGE.
UPSTREAM SHOWERS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING SUPPORTS THE HRRR. THE LOW-LEVEL JET SUGGESTS VERY
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS EXPLICITLY IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A
VICINITY MENTION DURING THE MOST LIKELY TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCHS 041144
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
744 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
ATLANTIC RIDGING MAY BE ABLE TO EXPAND A BIT WESTWARD INTO THE
REGION AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES/DEEPENS TO THE WEST. THIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE GREATEST FORCING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WITH EACH PASSING SHORT WAVE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WHILE A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

OVERALL...THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST IS NOT VERY CLEAR CUT IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. RADAR MOSAICS INDICATE A SERIES
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LINED UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE. WHILE
THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD GENERALLY STEER THESE COMPLEXES JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST DUE TO COLD POOLING.
THIS CONVECTION COULD ORGANIZE INTO MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AS IT
ADVANCES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION APPEARS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. ALL OF THIS SEEMS
TO SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
AND HAVE RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE FORECAST GENERALLY SHOWS
RAIN CHANCES AROUND 50 PERCENT...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED IN SOME AREAS AS TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES RISING TO 2500-3000 J/KG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF
750-1000 J/KG AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...WILL ADD MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER. THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES HIGHS OF 92-94 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 80S TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SOME PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...HIGHEST INLAND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CLOSER TO 90. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW GIVEN
REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE
INFLUENCE. HIGHS A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AND COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS. A TEMPO
GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV FROM 20-24Z TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE MOST
LIKELY TIMING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD
OCCUR NEAR KCHS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
IS MENTIONED IN THE TAF BEGINNING AT 16Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE FOUND BETWEEN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS OVER THE WATERS. LOOK
FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS UPWARDS OF
AROUND 15 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL MAY SUBSIDE A BIT AS WINDS
DIMINISH...BUT OVERALL SHOULD RANGE FROM 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES TODAY. IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM
SOUTH ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A
HIGH-END LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041144
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
744 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
ATLANTIC RIDGING MAY BE ABLE TO EXPAND A BIT WESTWARD INTO THE
REGION AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES/DEEPENS TO THE WEST. THIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE GREATEST FORCING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WITH EACH PASSING SHORT WAVE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WHILE A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

OVERALL...THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST IS NOT VERY CLEAR CUT IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. RADAR MOSAICS INDICATE A SERIES
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LINED UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE. WHILE
THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD GENERALLY STEER THESE COMPLEXES JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST DUE TO COLD POOLING.
THIS CONVECTION COULD ORGANIZE INTO MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AS IT
ADVANCES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION APPEARS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. ALL OF THIS SEEMS
TO SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
AND HAVE RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE FORECAST GENERALLY SHOWS
RAIN CHANCES AROUND 50 PERCENT...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED IN SOME AREAS AS TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES RISING TO 2500-3000 J/KG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF
750-1000 J/KG AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...WILL ADD MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER. THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES HIGHS OF 92-94 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 80S TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SOME PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...HIGHEST INLAND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CLOSER TO 90. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW GIVEN
REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE
INFLUENCE. HIGHS A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AND COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS. A TEMPO
GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV FROM 20-24Z TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE MOST
LIKELY TIMING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD
OCCUR NEAR KCHS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
IS MENTIONED IN THE TAF BEGINNING AT 16Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE FOUND BETWEEN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS OVER THE WATERS. LOOK
FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS UPWARDS OF
AROUND 15 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL MAY SUBSIDE A BIT AS WINDS
DIMINISH...BUT OVERALL SHOULD RANGE FROM 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES TODAY. IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM
SOUTH ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A
HIGH-END LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041144
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
744 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
ATLANTIC RIDGING MAY BE ABLE TO EXPAND A BIT WESTWARD INTO THE
REGION AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES/DEEPENS TO THE WEST. THIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE GREATEST FORCING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WITH EACH PASSING SHORT WAVE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WHILE A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

OVERALL...THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST IS NOT VERY CLEAR CUT IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. RADAR MOSAICS INDICATE A SERIES
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LINED UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE. WHILE
THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD GENERALLY STEER THESE COMPLEXES JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST DUE TO COLD POOLING.
THIS CONVECTION COULD ORGANIZE INTO MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AS IT
ADVANCES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION APPEARS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. ALL OF THIS SEEMS
TO SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
AND HAVE RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE FORECAST GENERALLY SHOWS
RAIN CHANCES AROUND 50 PERCENT...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED IN SOME AREAS AS TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES RISING TO 2500-3000 J/KG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF
750-1000 J/KG AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...WILL ADD MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER. THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES HIGHS OF 92-94 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 80S TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SOME PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...HIGHEST INLAND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CLOSER TO 90. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW GIVEN
REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE
INFLUENCE. HIGHS A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AND COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS. A TEMPO
GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV FROM 20-24Z TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE MOST
LIKELY TIMING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD
OCCUR NEAR KCHS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
IS MENTIONED IN THE TAF BEGINNING AT 16Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE FOUND BETWEEN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS OVER THE WATERS. LOOK
FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS UPWARDS OF
AROUND 15 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL MAY SUBSIDE A BIT AS WINDS
DIMINISH...BUT OVERALL SHOULD RANGE FROM 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES TODAY. IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM
SOUTH ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A
HIGH-END LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041144
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
744 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
ATLANTIC RIDGING MAY BE ABLE TO EXPAND A BIT WESTWARD INTO THE
REGION AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES/DEEPENS TO THE WEST. THIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE GREATEST FORCING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WITH EACH PASSING SHORT WAVE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WHILE A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

OVERALL...THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST IS NOT VERY CLEAR CUT IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. RADAR MOSAICS INDICATE A SERIES
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LINED UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE. WHILE
THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD GENERALLY STEER THESE COMPLEXES JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST DUE TO COLD POOLING.
THIS CONVECTION COULD ORGANIZE INTO MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AS IT
ADVANCES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION APPEARS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. ALL OF THIS SEEMS
TO SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
AND HAVE RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE FORECAST GENERALLY SHOWS
RAIN CHANCES AROUND 50 PERCENT...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED IN SOME AREAS AS TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES RISING TO 2500-3000 J/KG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF
750-1000 J/KG AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...WILL ADD MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER. THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES HIGHS OF 92-94 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 80S TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SOME PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...HIGHEST INLAND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CLOSER TO 90. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW GIVEN
REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE
INFLUENCE. HIGHS A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AND COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS. A TEMPO
GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV FROM 20-24Z TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE MOST
LIKELY TIMING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD
OCCUR NEAR KCHS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
IS MENTIONED IN THE TAF BEGINNING AT 16Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE FOUND BETWEEN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS OVER THE WATERS. LOOK
FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS UPWARDS OF
AROUND 15 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL MAY SUBSIDE A BIT AS WINDS
DIMINISH...BUT OVERALL SHOULD RANGE FROM 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES TODAY. IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM
SOUTH ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A
HIGH-END LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB




000
FXUS62 KFFC 041143
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
743 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH MORE PRECIPITATION MOVING
IN FROM ALABAMA. ALL IN ALL WE ARE IN A VERY MOIST NEAR ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WHICH CONTINUES TO SEND ONE WAVE AFTER ANOTHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED OCCASIONAL TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TIMING AND INTENSITY OF EACH
WAVE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON. THIS IS A VERY RAPIDLY
CHANGING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE ONLY CONSTANT BEING NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA GETTING MORE AND MORE PRECIPITATION EVERY HOUR. THE
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVER ALL AGREEMENT BUT THEY ARE ALSO
SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. ONE GOOD THING
IS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON SO SHOULD MAINLY SEE JUST GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE LOW.
HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MOVING IN OUT
OF ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF WE SEE ANY THEY SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. THE SAME SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR SUNDAY
AS WELL. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING
FOR 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS ACROSS NORTH GA THROUGH SUNDAY.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS LINING UP ALL THE WAY BACK
THROUGH ARKANSAS. THERE ARE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES MOVING IN FROM
AL BUT ITS MAINLY SHOWERS FOR NOW. THE ATL AREA TAF SITES WILL
SEE PRECIP OFF AND ON THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST IN THE 6-16KT RANGE. WILL SEE HIGHER
GUST WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
BE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  70  85  69 /  90  60  60  40
ATLANTA         83  71  84  70 /  90  70  70  40
BLAIRSVILLE     75  64  78  63 / 100  70  70  50
CARTERSVILLE    81  68  83  67 / 100  70  70  40
COLUMBUS        87  72  87  71 /  60  60  70  40
GAINESVILLE     79  69  82  68 / 100  70  70  50
MACON           90  71  89  70 /  50  60  70  40
ROME            82  69  83  68 / 100  70  70  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  70  84  69 /  90  70  70  40
VIDALIA         93  71  91  72 /  40  40  70  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...
TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 041143
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
743 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH MORE PRECIPITATION MOVING
IN FROM ALABAMA. ALL IN ALL WE ARE IN A VERY MOIST NEAR ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WHICH CONTINUES TO SEND ONE WAVE AFTER ANOTHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED OCCASIONAL TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TIMING AND INTENSITY OF EACH
WAVE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON. THIS IS A VERY RAPIDLY
CHANGING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE ONLY CONSTANT BEING NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA GETTING MORE AND MORE PRECIPITATION EVERY HOUR. THE
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVER ALL AGREEMENT BUT THEY ARE ALSO
SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. ONE GOOD THING
IS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON SO SHOULD MAINLY SEE JUST GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE LOW.
HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MOVING IN OUT
OF ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF WE SEE ANY THEY SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. THE SAME SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR SUNDAY
AS WELL. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING
FOR 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS ACROSS NORTH GA THROUGH SUNDAY.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS LINING UP ALL THE WAY BACK
THROUGH ARKANSAS. THERE ARE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES MOVING IN FROM
AL BUT ITS MAINLY SHOWERS FOR NOW. THE ATL AREA TAF SITES WILL
SEE PRECIP OFF AND ON THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST IN THE 6-16KT RANGE. WILL SEE HIGHER
GUST WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
BE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  70  85  69 /  90  60  60  40
ATLANTA         83  71  84  70 /  90  70  70  40
BLAIRSVILLE     75  64  78  63 / 100  70  70  50
CARTERSVILLE    81  68  83  67 / 100  70  70  40
COLUMBUS        87  72  87  71 /  60  60  70  40
GAINESVILLE     79  69  82  68 / 100  70  70  50
MACON           90  71  89  70 /  50  60  70  40
ROME            82  69  83  68 / 100  70  70  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  70  84  69 /  90  70  70  40
VIDALIA         93  71  91  72 /  40  40  70  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...
TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 041143
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
743 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH MORE PRECIPITATION MOVING
IN FROM ALABAMA. ALL IN ALL WE ARE IN A VERY MOIST NEAR ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WHICH CONTINUES TO SEND ONE WAVE AFTER ANOTHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED OCCASIONAL TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TIMING AND INTENSITY OF EACH
WAVE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON. THIS IS A VERY RAPIDLY
CHANGING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE ONLY CONSTANT BEING NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA GETTING MORE AND MORE PRECIPITATION EVERY HOUR. THE
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVER ALL AGREEMENT BUT THEY ARE ALSO
SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. ONE GOOD THING
IS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON SO SHOULD MAINLY SEE JUST GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE LOW.
HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MOVING IN OUT
OF ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF WE SEE ANY THEY SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. THE SAME SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR SUNDAY
AS WELL. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING
FOR 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS ACROSS NORTH GA THROUGH SUNDAY.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS LINING UP ALL THE WAY BACK
THROUGH ARKANSAS. THERE ARE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES MOVING IN FROM
AL BUT ITS MAINLY SHOWERS FOR NOW. THE ATL AREA TAF SITES WILL
SEE PRECIP OFF AND ON THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST IN THE 6-16KT RANGE. WILL SEE HIGHER
GUST WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
BE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  70  85  69 /  90  60  60  40
ATLANTA         83  71  84  70 /  90  70  70  40
BLAIRSVILLE     75  64  78  63 / 100  70  70  50
CARTERSVILLE    81  68  83  67 / 100  70  70  40
COLUMBUS        87  72  87  71 /  60  60  70  40
GAINESVILLE     79  69  82  68 / 100  70  70  50
MACON           90  71  89  70 /  50  60  70  40
ROME            82  69  83  68 / 100  70  70  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  70  84  69 /  90  70  70  40
VIDALIA         93  71  91  72 /  40  40  70  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...
TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 041143
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
743 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH MORE PRECIPITATION MOVING
IN FROM ALABAMA. ALL IN ALL WE ARE IN A VERY MOIST NEAR ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WHICH CONTINUES TO SEND ONE WAVE AFTER ANOTHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED OCCASIONAL TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TIMING AND INTENSITY OF EACH
WAVE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON. THIS IS A VERY RAPIDLY
CHANGING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE ONLY CONSTANT BEING NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA GETTING MORE AND MORE PRECIPITATION EVERY HOUR. THE
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVER ALL AGREEMENT BUT THEY ARE ALSO
SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. ONE GOOD THING
IS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON SO SHOULD MAINLY SEE JUST GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE LOW.
HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MOVING IN OUT
OF ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF WE SEE ANY THEY SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. THE SAME SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR SUNDAY
AS WELL. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING
FOR 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS ACROSS NORTH GA THROUGH SUNDAY.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS LINING UP ALL THE WAY BACK
THROUGH ARKANSAS. THERE ARE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES MOVING IN FROM
AL BUT ITS MAINLY SHOWERS FOR NOW. THE ATL AREA TAF SITES WILL
SEE PRECIP OFF AND ON THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST IN THE 6-16KT RANGE. WILL SEE HIGHER
GUST WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
BE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  70  85  69 /  90  60  60  40
ATLANTA         83  71  84  70 /  90  70  70  40
BLAIRSVILLE     75  64  78  63 / 100  70  70  50
CARTERSVILLE    81  68  83  67 / 100  70  70  40
COLUMBUS        87  72  87  71 /  60  60  70  40
GAINESVILLE     79  69  82  68 / 100  70  70  50
MACON           90  71  89  70 /  50  60  70  40
ROME            82  69  83  68 / 100  70  70  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  70  84  69 /  90  70  70  40
VIDALIA         93  71  91  72 /  40  40  70  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...
TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KCHS 040834
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
434 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
ATLANTIC RIDGING MAY BE ABLE TO EXPAND A BIT WESTWARD INTO THE
REGION AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES/DEEPENS TO THE WEST. THIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE GREATEST FORCING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WITH EACH PASSING SHORT WAVE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WHILE A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

OVERALL...THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST IS NOT VERY CLEAR CUT IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. RADAR MOSAICS INDICATE A SERIES
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LINED UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE. WHILE
THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD GENERALLY STEER THESE COMPLEXES JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST DUE TO COLD POOLING.
THIS CONVECTION COULD ORGANIZE INTO MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AS IT
ADVANCES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION APPEARS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. ALL OF THIS SEEMS
TO SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
AND HAVE RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE FORECAST GENERALLY SHOWS
RAIN CHANCES AROUND 40 PERCENT...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED AS TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES RISING TO 2500-3000 J/KG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF
750-1000 J/KG AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...WILL ADD MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER. THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES HIGHS OF 92-94 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 80S TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SOME PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...HIGHEST INLAND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CLOSER TO 90. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW GIVEN
REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE
INFLUENCE. HIGHS A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE FOUND BETWEEN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS OVER THE WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEAR
SHORE WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...BUT ARE SET TO EXPIRE
AT 7 AM AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE. LOOK FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO THEN PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 KT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL MAY SUBSIDE A BIT AS WINDS DIMINISH...BUT
OVERALL SHOULD RANGE FROM 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURDSAY...EXPECT A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES TODAY. IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM
SOUTH ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A
HIGH-END LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-
     374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 040834
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
434 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
ATLANTIC RIDGING MAY BE ABLE TO EXPAND A BIT WESTWARD INTO THE
REGION AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES/DEEPENS TO THE WEST. THIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE GREATEST FORCING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WITH EACH PASSING SHORT WAVE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WHILE A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

OVERALL...THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST IS NOT VERY CLEAR CUT IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. RADAR MOSAICS INDICATE A SERIES
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LINED UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE. WHILE
THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD GENERALLY STEER THESE COMPLEXES JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST DUE TO COLD POOLING.
THIS CONVECTION COULD ORGANIZE INTO MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AS IT
ADVANCES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION APPEARS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. ALL OF THIS SEEMS
TO SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
AND HAVE RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE FORECAST GENERALLY SHOWS
RAIN CHANCES AROUND 40 PERCENT...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED AS TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES RISING TO 2500-3000 J/KG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF
750-1000 J/KG AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...WILL ADD MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER. THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES HIGHS OF 92-94 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 80S TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SOME PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...HIGHEST INLAND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CLOSER TO 90. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW GIVEN
REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE
INFLUENCE. HIGHS A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE FOUND BETWEEN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS OVER THE WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEAR
SHORE WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...BUT ARE SET TO EXPIRE
AT 7 AM AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE. LOOK FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO THEN PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 KT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL MAY SUBSIDE A BIT AS WINDS DIMINISH...BUT
OVERALL SHOULD RANGE FROM 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURDSAY...EXPECT A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES TODAY. IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM
SOUTH ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A
HIGH-END LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-
     374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 040834
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
434 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
ATLANTIC RIDGING MAY BE ABLE TO EXPAND A BIT WESTWARD INTO THE
REGION AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES/DEEPENS TO THE WEST. THIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE GREATEST FORCING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WITH EACH PASSING SHORT WAVE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WHILE A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

OVERALL...THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST IS NOT VERY CLEAR CUT IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. RADAR MOSAICS INDICATE A SERIES
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LINED UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE. WHILE
THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD GENERALLY STEER THESE COMPLEXES JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST DUE TO COLD POOLING.
THIS CONVECTION COULD ORGANIZE INTO MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AS IT
ADVANCES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION APPEARS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. ALL OF THIS SEEMS
TO SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
AND HAVE RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE FORECAST GENERALLY SHOWS
RAIN CHANCES AROUND 40 PERCENT...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED AS TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES RISING TO 2500-3000 J/KG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF
750-1000 J/KG AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...WILL ADD MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER. THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES HIGHS OF 92-94 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 80S TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SOME PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...HIGHEST INLAND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CLOSER TO 90. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW GIVEN
REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE
INFLUENCE. HIGHS A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE FOUND BETWEEN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS OVER THE WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEAR
SHORE WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...BUT ARE SET TO EXPIRE
AT 7 AM AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE. LOOK FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO THEN PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 KT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL MAY SUBSIDE A BIT AS WINDS DIMINISH...BUT
OVERALL SHOULD RANGE FROM 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURDSAY...EXPECT A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES TODAY. IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM
SOUTH ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A
HIGH-END LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-
     374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 040834
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
434 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
ATLANTIC RIDGING MAY BE ABLE TO EXPAND A BIT WESTWARD INTO THE
REGION AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES/DEEPENS TO THE WEST. THIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE GREATEST FORCING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WITH EACH PASSING SHORT WAVE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WHILE A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

OVERALL...THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST IS NOT VERY CLEAR CUT IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. RADAR MOSAICS INDICATE A SERIES
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LINED UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE. WHILE
THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD GENERALLY STEER THESE COMPLEXES JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST DUE TO COLD POOLING.
THIS CONVECTION COULD ORGANIZE INTO MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AS IT
ADVANCES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION APPEARS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. ALL OF THIS SEEMS
TO SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
AND HAVE RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE FORECAST GENERALLY SHOWS
RAIN CHANCES AROUND 40 PERCENT...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED AS TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES RISING TO 2500-3000 J/KG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF
750-1000 J/KG AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...WILL ADD MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER. THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES HIGHS OF 92-94 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 80S TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SOME PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...HIGHEST INLAND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CLOSER TO 90. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW GIVEN
REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE
INFLUENCE. HIGHS A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE FOUND BETWEEN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS OVER THE WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEAR
SHORE WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...BUT ARE SET TO EXPIRE
AT 7 AM AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE. LOOK FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO THEN PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 KT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL MAY SUBSIDE A BIT AS WINDS DIMINISH...BUT
OVERALL SHOULD RANGE FROM 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURDSAY...EXPECT A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES TODAY. IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM
SOUTH ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A
HIGH-END LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-
     374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB



000
FXUS62 KFFC 040814
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
414 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH MORE PRECIPITATION MOVING
IN FROM ALABAMA. ALL IN ALL WE ARE IN A VERY MOIST NEAR ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WHICH CONTINUES TO SEND ONE WAVE AFTER ANOTHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED OCCASIONAL TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TIMING AND INTENSITY OF EACH
WAVE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON. THIS IS A VERY RAPIDLY
CHANGING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE ONLY CONSTANT BEING NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA GETTING MORE AND MORE PRECIPITATION EVERY HOUR. THE
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVER ALL AGREEMENT BUT THEY ARE ALSO
SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. ONE GOOD THING
IS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON SO SHOULD MAINLY SEE JUST GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE LOW.
HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MOVING IN OUT
OF ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF WE SEE ANY THEY SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. THE SAME SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR SUNDAY
AS WELL. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING
FOR 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS ACROSS NORTH GA THROUGH SUNDAY.

01


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
AS ANOTHER LINE MOVES IN FROM ALABAMA. THIS SECOND LINE IS STAYING
SOUTH OF THE ATL AREA TAF SITES BUT IT WILL AFFECT CSG AND MCN.
SEEING A LOT OF LIGHTNING AND VERY GUSTY WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE ATL AREA TAF SITES WILL SEE SOME PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BUT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE MAINLY SHOWERS. THE FORECAST
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE STAYING MAINLY OF GA
TODAY AND SUNDAY SO WILL SEE SHRA/TSRA THROUGH OUT THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST IN THE 6-16KT RANGE.
WILL SEE HIGHER GUT WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CEILINGS WILL BE UP
AND DOWN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  70  85  69 /  60  60  60  40
ATLANTA         83  71  84  70 /  60  70  70  40
BLAIRSVILLE     75  64  78  63 /  90  70  70  50
CARTERSVILLE    81  68  83  67 /  80  70  70  40
COLUMBUS        87  72  87  71 /  60  60  70  40
GAINESVILLE     79  69  82  68 /  70  70  70  50
MACON           90  71  89  70 /  50  60  70  40
ROME            82  69  83  68 /  90  70  70  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  70  84  69 /  60  70  70  40
VIDALIA         93  71  91  72 /  40  40  70  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...
TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 040814
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
414 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH MORE PRECIPITATION MOVING
IN FROM ALABAMA. ALL IN ALL WE ARE IN A VERY MOIST NEAR ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WHICH CONTINUES TO SEND ONE WAVE AFTER ANOTHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED OCCASIONAL TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TIMING AND INTENSITY OF EACH
WAVE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON. THIS IS A VERY RAPIDLY
CHANGING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE ONLY CONSTANT BEING NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA GETTING MORE AND MORE PRECIPITATION EVERY HOUR. THE
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVER ALL AGREEMENT BUT THEY ARE ALSO
SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. ONE GOOD THING
IS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON SO SHOULD MAINLY SEE JUST GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE LOW.
HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MOVING IN OUT
OF ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF WE SEE ANY THEY SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED. THE SAME SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR SUNDAY
AS WELL. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING
FOR 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS ACROSS NORTH GA THROUGH SUNDAY.

01


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
AS ANOTHER LINE MOVES IN FROM ALABAMA. THIS SECOND LINE IS STAYING
SOUTH OF THE ATL AREA TAF SITES BUT IT WILL AFFECT CSG AND MCN.
SEEING A LOT OF LIGHTNING AND VERY GUSTY WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE ATL AREA TAF SITES WILL SEE SOME PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BUT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE MAINLY SHOWERS. THE FORECAST
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE STAYING MAINLY OF GA
TODAY AND SUNDAY SO WILL SEE SHRA/TSRA THROUGH OUT THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST IN THE 6-16KT RANGE.
WILL SEE HIGHER GUT WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CEILINGS WILL BE UP
AND DOWN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  70  85  69 /  60  60  60  40
ATLANTA         83  71  84  70 /  60  70  70  40
BLAIRSVILLE     75  64  78  63 /  90  70  70  50
CARTERSVILLE    81  68  83  67 /  80  70  70  40
COLUMBUS        87  72  87  71 /  60  60  70  40
GAINESVILLE     79  69  82  68 /  70  70  70  50
MACON           90  71  89  70 /  50  60  70  40
ROME            82  69  83  68 /  90  70  70  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  70  84  69 /  60  70  70  40
VIDALIA         93  71  91  72 /  40  40  70  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...
TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KCAE 040719
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
319 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL 850MB JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...PW
VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
WITH YESTERDAYS STORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
H85 WINDS MIXING DOWN. HAVE CUT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO UPPER 80S
EXPECTING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FROM REMNANTS OF RW/TRW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...REMAINING THERE
INTO MONDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING
CUTOFF LOW...AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CHANCE TO
LOW END LIKELY POPS APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
POPS FOR MONDAY SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES...BUT CLOUD COVER
COULD KEEP THOSE READINGS SLIGHTLY LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH FLATTENS
OUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER PATTERN
HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE
GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS
TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WENT WITH
DIURNALY GENERATED POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONGER TERM. FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.

UPPER LEVEL TROF TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID MORNING FROM THE WEST
15 TO 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO LIFT NORTH BY
MIDWEEK DECREASING THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS AND POSSIBLE
EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 040719
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
319 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL 850MB JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...PW
VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
WITH YESTERDAYS STORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
H85 WINDS MIXING DOWN. HAVE CUT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO UPPER 80S
EXPECTING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FROM REMNANTS OF RW/TRW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...REMAINING THERE
INTO MONDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING
CUTOFF LOW...AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CHANCE TO
LOW END LIKELY POPS APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
POPS FOR MONDAY SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES...BUT CLOUD COVER
COULD KEEP THOSE READINGS SLIGHTLY LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH FLATTENS
OUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER PATTERN
HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE
GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS
TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WENT WITH
DIURNALY GENERATED POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONGER TERM. FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.

UPPER LEVEL TROF TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID MORNING FROM THE WEST
15 TO 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO LIFT NORTH BY
MIDWEEK DECREASING THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS AND POSSIBLE
EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCAE 040719
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
319 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL 850MB JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...PW
VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
WITH YESTERDAYS STORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
H85 WINDS MIXING DOWN. HAVE CUT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO UPPER 80S
EXPECTING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FROM REMNANTS OF RW/TRW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...REMAINING THERE
INTO MONDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING
CUTOFF LOW...AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CHANCE TO
LOW END LIKELY POPS APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
POPS FOR MONDAY SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES...BUT CLOUD COVER
COULD KEEP THOSE READINGS SLIGHTLY LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH FLATTENS
OUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER PATTERN
HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE
GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS
TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WENT WITH
DIURNALY GENERATED POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONGER TERM. FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.

UPPER LEVEL TROF TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID MORNING FROM THE WEST
15 TO 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO LIFT NORTH BY
MIDWEEK DECREASING THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS AND POSSIBLE
EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 040631
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
231 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL 850MB JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...PW
VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
WITH YESTERDAYS STORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
H85 WINDS MIXING DOWN. HAVE CUT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO UPPER 80S
EXPECTING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FROM REMNANTS OF RW/TRW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.

UPPER LEVEL TROF TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID MORNING FROM THE WEST
15 TO 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO LIFT NORTH BY
MIDWEEK DECREASING THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS AND POSSIBLE
EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 040631
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
231 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL 850MB JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...PW
VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
WITH YESTERDAYS STORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
H85 WINDS MIXING DOWN. HAVE CUT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO UPPER 80S
EXPECTING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FROM REMNANTS OF RW/TRW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.

UPPER LEVEL TROF TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID MORNING FROM THE WEST
15 TO 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO LIFT NORTH BY
MIDWEEK DECREASING THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS AND POSSIBLE
EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 040631
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
231 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL 850MB JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...PW
VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
WITH YESTERDAYS STORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
H85 WINDS MIXING DOWN. HAVE CUT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO UPPER 80S
EXPECTING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FROM REMNANTS OF RW/TRW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.

UPPER LEVEL TROF TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID MORNING FROM THE WEST
15 TO 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO LIFT NORTH BY
MIDWEEK DECREASING THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS AND POSSIBLE
EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 040631
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
231 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL 850MB JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...PW
VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
WITH YESTERDAYS STORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
H85 WINDS MIXING DOWN. HAVE CUT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO UPPER 80S
EXPECTING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FROM REMNANTS OF RW/TRW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.

UPPER LEVEL TROF TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID MORNING FROM THE WEST
15 TO 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO LIFT NORTH BY
MIDWEEK DECREASING THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS AND POSSIBLE
EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KFFC 040604
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
204 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UPDATE...
NEAR-TERM GRIDS UPDATED TO REFLECT OBSERVED TRENDS AND RECENT
GUIDANCE. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION IN CENTRAL AL TO MOVE EAST INTO
WESTCENTRAL GA AROUND 10PM THEN WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A LARGER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST GA AFTER
2AM SPREADING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST. THESE STORMS SHOULD NOT BE
SEVERE BUT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HVY RAIN...BASED ON THIS WILL
KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING. THIS WEAKENING AREA OF CONVECTION
SAT MORNING COULD AFFECT LOCAL ACTIVITIES IN THE ATL METRO
INCLUDING THE PEACHTREE ROAD RACE. WHATS LEFT OF THIS PRECIP
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION IN
THE AFTERNOON JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH PREFERENCE FOR AREAS NEAR
BOUNDARIES AND GRADIENTS BETWEEN THICK CLOUD COVER AND SUNSHINE.

SNELSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

.FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST AND RELATIVELY FAST (35-45KT) ZONAL LOW TO MID LVL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SEND ONE IMPULSE AFTER ANOTHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
REGION...SUPPORTING THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

TIMING/DURATION/INTENSITY OF EACH "ROUND" HAS BEEN CHALLENGING GIVEN
RAPID FLUCTUATIONS WITH MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. THE AREA IS IN A BIT
OF LULL THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THINGS TO PICK BACK UP LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS NEXT S/W APPROACHES. MODELS ACTUALLY IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS WAVE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE NAM BEING
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING A 1-3 INCH MAX OF 6-HOUR PRECIP FROM
CENTRAL AL TO NORTHEAST GA BTWN 06-12Z/SAT. TRACK OF S/W ENERGY AND
BEST LOW LVL CONVG SEEM TO SUPPORT THE HEAVIER RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTH GA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT.

ANY BREAK IN CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED ON SATURDAY AS UPR LVL
LOW STRENGTHENS OVER NRN MS/WRN TN AROUND 00Z/SUNDAY. FAVORABLE
MOISTURE/ENERGY ADVECTION WITHIN PRONOUNCED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
AL/GA BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS UPR LOW APPROACHES
EASTERN TENNESSEE BY 12Z/SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOOD PRONE AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GA...
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING THROUGH SUNDAY. EACH
ROUND OF RAIN /TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT/ COULD BRING AT
LEAST AN INCH WITH ISOLD AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES. ROUGH ESTIMATE OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTH/WEST OF A CARROLLTON TO MARIETTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE...BUT
CERTAINLY THIS IS NOT EXACT.

GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE LOW. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IF OUTFLOW-DRIVEN BROKEN LINE/WEAK QLCS ROLLS INTO MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH AND EAST OF ATL...EXPECT A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUING TO BE
PRIMARY THREAT.

DJN.83

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENTLY ADVERTISED
MID TO HIGH END CHANCE GRIDS. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY
BEFORE ERODING AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE
ATMOSPHERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH
REDUCED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK
SUFFICE FOR THE GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

DEESE

39

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
AS ANOTHER LINE MOVES IN FROM ALABAMA. THIS SECOND LINE IS STAYING
SOUTH OF THE ATL AREA TAF SITES BUT IT WILL AFFECT CSG AND MCN.
SEEING A LOT OF LIGHTNING AND VERY GUSTY WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE ATL AREA TAF SITES WILL SEE SOME PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BUT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE MAINLY SHOWERS. THE FORECAST
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE STAYING MAINLY OF GA
TODAY AND SUNDAY SO WILL SEE SHRA/TSRA THROUGH OUT THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST IN THE
6-16KT RANGE. WILL SEE HIGHER GUT WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
CEILINGS WILL BE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD RANGING FROM
VFR TO MVFR.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  68  86  69 /  40  30  50  40
ATLANTA         82  69  83  70 /  50  50  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     74  63  78  63 /  70  50  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    79  67  82  67 /  70  60  60  50
COLUMBUS        86  71  87  72 /  50  40  50  30
GAINESVILLE     79  68  81  69 /  50  40  60  50
MACON           89  70  88  71 /  40  20  50  30
ROME            80  68  83  68 /  60  60  60  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  69  84  69 /  50  40  60  30
VIDALIA         92  72  92  72 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...
TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 040604
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
204 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UPDATE...
NEAR-TERM GRIDS UPDATED TO REFLECT OBSERVED TRENDS AND RECENT
GUIDANCE. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION IN CENTRAL AL TO MOVE EAST INTO
WESTCENTRAL GA AROUND 10PM THEN WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A LARGER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST GA AFTER
2AM SPREADING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST. THESE STORMS SHOULD NOT BE
SEVERE BUT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HVY RAIN...BASED ON THIS WILL
KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING. THIS WEAKENING AREA OF CONVECTION
SAT MORNING COULD AFFECT LOCAL ACTIVITIES IN THE ATL METRO
INCLUDING THE PEACHTREE ROAD RACE. WHATS LEFT OF THIS PRECIP
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION IN
THE AFTERNOON JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH PREFERENCE FOR AREAS NEAR
BOUNDARIES AND GRADIENTS BETWEEN THICK CLOUD COVER AND SUNSHINE.

SNELSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

.FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST AND RELATIVELY FAST (35-45KT) ZONAL LOW TO MID LVL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SEND ONE IMPULSE AFTER ANOTHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
REGION...SUPPORTING THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

TIMING/DURATION/INTENSITY OF EACH "ROUND" HAS BEEN CHALLENGING GIVEN
RAPID FLUCTUATIONS WITH MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. THE AREA IS IN A BIT
OF LULL THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THINGS TO PICK BACK UP LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS NEXT S/W APPROACHES. MODELS ACTUALLY IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS WAVE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE NAM BEING
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING A 1-3 INCH MAX OF 6-HOUR PRECIP FROM
CENTRAL AL TO NORTHEAST GA BTWN 06-12Z/SAT. TRACK OF S/W ENERGY AND
BEST LOW LVL CONVG SEEM TO SUPPORT THE HEAVIER RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTH GA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT.

ANY BREAK IN CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED ON SATURDAY AS UPR LVL
LOW STRENGTHENS OVER NRN MS/WRN TN AROUND 00Z/SUNDAY. FAVORABLE
MOISTURE/ENERGY ADVECTION WITHIN PRONOUNCED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
AL/GA BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS UPR LOW APPROACHES
EASTERN TENNESSEE BY 12Z/SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOOD PRONE AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GA...
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING THROUGH SUNDAY. EACH
ROUND OF RAIN /TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT/ COULD BRING AT
LEAST AN INCH WITH ISOLD AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES. ROUGH ESTIMATE OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTH/WEST OF A CARROLLTON TO MARIETTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE...BUT
CERTAINLY THIS IS NOT EXACT.

GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE LOW. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IF OUTFLOW-DRIVEN BROKEN LINE/WEAK QLCS ROLLS INTO MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH AND EAST OF ATL...EXPECT A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUING TO BE
PRIMARY THREAT.

DJN.83

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENTLY ADVERTISED
MID TO HIGH END CHANCE GRIDS. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY
BEFORE ERODING AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE
ATMOSPHERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH
REDUCED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK
SUFFICE FOR THE GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

DEESE

39

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
AS ANOTHER LINE MOVES IN FROM ALABAMA. THIS SECOND LINE IS STAYING
SOUTH OF THE ATL AREA TAF SITES BUT IT WILL AFFECT CSG AND MCN.
SEEING A LOT OF LIGHTNING AND VERY GUSTY WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE ATL AREA TAF SITES WILL SEE SOME PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BUT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE MAINLY SHOWERS. THE FORECAST
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE STAYING MAINLY OF GA
TODAY AND SUNDAY SO WILL SEE SHRA/TSRA THROUGH OUT THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST IN THE
6-16KT RANGE. WILL SEE HIGHER GUT WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
CEILINGS WILL BE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD RANGING FROM
VFR TO MVFR.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  68  86  69 /  40  30  50  40
ATLANTA         82  69  83  70 /  50  50  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     74  63  78  63 /  70  50  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    79  67  82  67 /  70  60  60  50
COLUMBUS        86  71  87  72 /  50  40  50  30
GAINESVILLE     79  68  81  69 /  50  40  60  50
MACON           89  70  88  71 /  40  20  50  30
ROME            80  68  83  68 /  60  60  60  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  69  84  69 /  50  40  60  30
VIDALIA         92  72  92  72 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...
TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KCHS 040554
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
154 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...AIDED BY FORCING FOR
ASCENT FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS
CONVECTION COULD PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD A BIT ALONG NEW DEVELOPING
OUTFLOW/COLD POOLING...THUS HAVE RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
NORTH/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK.
INSTABILITY IS ALSO FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF
NIGHT...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND
DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF 800-900 J/KG...THUS THESE STORMS ARE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS OF 40-50 MPH WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 08Z FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS
AND SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. RADAR TRENDS MAY DICTATE EXTENDING
THE TEMPO GROUP THROUGH LATER IN THE MORNING DUE TO ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
06Z SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT S-SW WINDS OF
15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL DROP ABOUT 5 KT OR SO LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY
BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ350-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 040248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1048 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. RADAR TRENDS
CURRENTLY SHOW NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA AS AREA REMAINS
RATHER STABLE FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE
SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA FROM EASTERN AL INTO WEST-CENTRAL
GA. LOOKS AS THOUGH THEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. NOT SURE IF THEY WILL HOLD TOGETHER. THE LATEST HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE HAVE
FORECASTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...MAIN TROUGH
AXIS WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW S/W ACTIVITY MOVING CLOSER TO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE/MODEL
POPS RATHER LOW ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
DAYS. BIG DISCREPANCIES IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. HAVE TRENDED
CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM NUMBERS BASED ON LOW CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
AND LESS CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.

ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED FROM EARLIER STORMS AND RADAR IS
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS. THE UPPER
PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO PAST DAYS AS WE ARE LOCATED ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
NAM/HRRR SHOWING POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
AL/GA AND LIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO
HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF SHOWERS STARTED AT 05Z AGS/DNL AND 08Z
CAE/CUB BUT WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED...SUPPORTED BY VFR FORECASTS
FROM MOS GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID MORNING FROM THE
WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED STORMS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 040248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1048 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. RADAR TRENDS
CURRENTLY SHOW NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA AS AREA REMAINS
RATHER STABLE FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE
SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA FROM EASTERN AL INTO WEST-CENTRAL
GA. LOOKS AS THOUGH THEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. NOT SURE IF THEY WILL HOLD TOGETHER. THE LATEST HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE HAVE
FORECASTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...MAIN TROUGH
AXIS WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW S/W ACTIVITY MOVING CLOSER TO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE/MODEL
POPS RATHER LOW ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
DAYS. BIG DISCREPANCIES IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. HAVE TRENDED
CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM NUMBERS BASED ON LOW CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
AND LESS CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.

ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED FROM EARLIER STORMS AND RADAR IS
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS. THE UPPER
PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO PAST DAYS AS WE ARE LOCATED ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
NAM/HRRR SHOWING POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
AL/GA AND LIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO
HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF SHOWERS STARTED AT 05Z AGS/DNL AND 08Z
CAE/CUB BUT WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED...SUPPORTED BY VFR FORECASTS
FROM MOS GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID MORNING FROM THE
WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED STORMS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 040248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1048 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. RADAR TRENDS
CURRENTLY SHOW NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA AS AREA REMAINS
RATHER STABLE FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE
SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA FROM EASTERN AL INTO WEST-CENTRAL
GA. LOOKS AS THOUGH THEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. NOT SURE IF THEY WILL HOLD TOGETHER. THE LATEST HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE HAVE
FORECASTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...MAIN TROUGH
AXIS WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW S/W ACTIVITY MOVING CLOSER TO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE/MODEL
POPS RATHER LOW ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
DAYS. BIG DISCREPANCIES IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. HAVE TRENDED
CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM NUMBERS BASED ON LOW CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
AND LESS CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.

ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED FROM EARLIER STORMS AND RADAR IS
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS. THE UPPER
PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO PAST DAYS AS WE ARE LOCATED ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
NAM/HRRR SHOWING POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
AL/GA AND LIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO
HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF SHOWERS STARTED AT 05Z AGS/DNL AND 08Z
CAE/CUB BUT WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED...SUPPORTED BY VFR FORECASTS
FROM MOS GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID MORNING FROM THE
WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED STORMS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 040248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1048 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. RADAR TRENDS
CURRENTLY SHOW NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA AS AREA REMAINS
RATHER STABLE FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE
SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA FROM EASTERN AL INTO WEST-CENTRAL
GA. LOOKS AS THOUGH THEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. NOT SURE IF THEY WILL HOLD TOGETHER. THE LATEST HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE HAVE
FORECASTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...MAIN TROUGH
AXIS WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW S/W ACTIVITY MOVING CLOSER TO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE/MODEL
POPS RATHER LOW ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
DAYS. BIG DISCREPANCIES IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. HAVE TRENDED
CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM NUMBERS BASED ON LOW CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
AND LESS CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.

ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED FROM EARLIER STORMS AND RADAR IS
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS. THE UPPER
PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO PAST DAYS AS WE ARE LOCATED ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
NAM/HRRR SHOWING POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
AL/GA AND LIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO
HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF SHOWERS STARTED AT 05Z AGS/DNL AND 08Z
CAE/CUB BUT WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED...SUPPORTED BY VFR FORECASTS
FROM MOS GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID MORNING FROM THE
WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED STORMS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCHS 040159
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
959 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND STICKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
WITHIN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST THINKING IS THAT ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN GA AND EASTERN AL IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
SHORT WAVE WILL GENERALLY STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST ZONES. BUT WE
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NW TIER AFTER 3 OR 4 AM
JUST IN CASE SOME IS ABLE TO SURVIVE THIS FAR EAST.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY...GIVING WAY TO SOME
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM LATE. A LITTLE LATE NIGHT
STRATUS AND FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINS OCCURRED
IN SC ON FRIDAY. LOWEST TEMPS ON AVERAGE WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S...MAYBE A FEW UPPER 70S ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DISTANT UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM AL/GA IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
THE TERMINALS TONIGHT...AND THE RISK FOR ANY SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. THUS WE
ARE SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT S-SW WINDS OF
15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL DROP ABOUT 5 KT OR SO LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY
BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 040159
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
959 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND STICKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
WITHIN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST THINKING IS THAT ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN GA AND EASTERN AL IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
SHORT WAVE WILL GENERALLY STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST ZONES. BUT WE
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NW TIER AFTER 3 OR 4 AM
JUST IN CASE SOME IS ABLE TO SURVIVE THIS FAR EAST.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY...GIVING WAY TO SOME
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM LATE. A LITTLE LATE NIGHT
STRATUS AND FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINS OCCURRED
IN SC ON FRIDAY. LOWEST TEMPS ON AVERAGE WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S...MAYBE A FEW UPPER 70S ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DISTANT UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM AL/GA IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
THE TERMINALS TONIGHT...AND THE RISK FOR ANY SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. THUS WE
ARE SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT S-SW WINDS OF
15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL DROP ABOUT 5 KT OR SO LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY
BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 040159
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
959 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND STICKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
WITHIN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST THINKING IS THAT ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN GA AND EASTERN AL IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
SHORT WAVE WILL GENERALLY STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST ZONES. BUT WE
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NW TIER AFTER 3 OR 4 AM
JUST IN CASE SOME IS ABLE TO SURVIVE THIS FAR EAST.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY...GIVING WAY TO SOME
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM LATE. A LITTLE LATE NIGHT
STRATUS AND FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINS OCCURRED
IN SC ON FRIDAY. LOWEST TEMPS ON AVERAGE WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S...MAYBE A FEW UPPER 70S ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DISTANT UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM AL/GA IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
THE TERMINALS TONIGHT...AND THE RISK FOR ANY SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. THUS WE
ARE SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT S-SW WINDS OF
15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL DROP ABOUT 5 KT OR SO LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY
BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 040159
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
959 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND STICKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
WITHIN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST THINKING IS THAT ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN GA AND EASTERN AL IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
SHORT WAVE WILL GENERALLY STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST ZONES. BUT WE
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NW TIER AFTER 3 OR 4 AM
JUST IN CASE SOME IS ABLE TO SURVIVE THIS FAR EAST.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY...GIVING WAY TO SOME
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM LATE. A LITTLE LATE NIGHT
STRATUS AND FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINS OCCURRED
IN SC ON FRIDAY. LOWEST TEMPS ON AVERAGE WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S...MAYBE A FEW UPPER 70S ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DISTANT UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM AL/GA IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
THE TERMINALS TONIGHT...AND THE RISK FOR ANY SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. THUS WE
ARE SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT S-SW WINDS OF
15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL DROP ABOUT 5 KT OR SO LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY
BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 040014
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
814 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS CURRENTLY SHOW NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
CWA AS AREA REMAINS RATHER STABLE FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. THE
LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE HAVE
FORECASTED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...MAIN
TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHWEST
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW S/W ACTIVITY MOVING
CLOSER TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO
BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
GUIDANCE/MODEL POPS RATHER LOW ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. BIG DISCREPANCIES IN TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM NUMBERS BASED ON
LOW CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AND LESS CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.

ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED FROM EARLIER STORMS AND RADAR IS
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS. THE UPPER
PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO PAST DAYS AS WE ARE LOCATED ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
NAM/HRRR SHOWING POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
AL/GA AND LIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO
HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF SHOWERS STARTED AT 05Z AGS/DNL AND 08Z
CAE/CUB BUT WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED...SUPPORTED BY VFR FORECASTS
FROM MOS GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID MORNING FROM THE
WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED STORMS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 040013 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
813 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
NEAR-TERM GRIDS UPDATED TO REFLECT OBSERVED TRENDS AND RECENT
GUIDANCE. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION IN CENTRAL AL TO MOVE EAST INTO
WESTCENTRAL GA AROUND 10PM THEN WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A LARGER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST GA AFTER
2AM SPREADING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST. THESE STORMS SHOULD NOT BE
SEVERE BUT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HVY RAIN...BASED ON THIS WILL
KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING. THIS WEAKENING AREA OF CONVECTION
SAT MORNING COULD AFFECT LOCAL ACTIVITIES IN THE ATL METRO
INCLUDING THE PEACHTREE ROAD RACE. WHATS LEFT OF THIS PRECIP
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION IN
THE AFTERNOON JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH PREFERENCE FOR AREAS NEAR
BOUNDARIES AND GRADIENTS BETWEEN THICK CLOUD COVER AND SUNSHINE.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

..FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST AND RELATIVELY FAST (35-45KT) ZONAL LOW TO MID LVL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SEND ONE IMPULSE AFTER ANOTHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
REGION...SUPPORTING THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

TIMING/DURATION/INTENSITY OF EACH "ROUND" HAS BEEN CHALLENGING GIVEN
RAPID FLUCTUATIONS WITH MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. THE AREA IS IN A BIT
OF LULL THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THINGS TO PICK BACK UP LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS NEXT S/W APPROACHES. MODELS ACTUALLY IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS WAVE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE NAM BEING
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING A 1-3 INCH MAX OF 6-HOUR PRECIP FROM
CENTRAL AL TO NORTHEAST GA BTWN 06-12Z/SAT. TRACK OF S/W ENERGY AND
BEST LOW LVL CONVG SEEM TO SUPPORT THE HEAVIER RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTH GA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT.

ANY BREAK IN CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED ON SATURDAY AS UPR LVL
LOW STRENGTHENS OVER NRN MS/WRN TN AROUND 00Z/SUNDAY. FAVORABLE
MOISTURE/ENERGY ADVECTION WITHIN PRONOUNCED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
AL/GA BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS UPR LOW APPROACHES
EASTERN TENNESSEE BY 12Z/SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOOD PRONE AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GA...
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING THROUGH SUNDAY. EACH
ROUND OF RAIN /TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT/ COULD BRING AT
LEAST AN INCH WITH ISOLD AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES. ROUGH ESTIMATE OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTH/WEST OF A CARROLLTON TO MARIETTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE...BUT
CERTAINLY THIS IS NOT EXACT.

GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE LOW. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IF OUTFLOW-DRIVEN BROKEN LINE/WEAK QLCS ROLLS INTO MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH AND EAST OF ATL...EXPECT A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUING TO BE
PRIMARY THREAT.

DJN.83

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENTLY ADVERTISED
MID TO HIGH END CHANCE GRIDS. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY
BEFORE ERODING AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE
ATMOSPHERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH
REDUCED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK
SUFFICE FOR THE GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

DEESE

39

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
PRIMARY CONCERN IS THREAT FOR TSRA OVERNIGHT AND SAT AFTERNOON.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT OTHER THAN ISOLD TSRA IN WESTCENTRAL
GA 02Z-05Z...AREA OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY OVER NORTHWEST GA AFTER 05Z
SPREADING INTO ATL METRO AROUND 07Z. NOT SURE PRECIP WILL MAKE IT
THAT FAR SOUTH...BUT MOST LIKELY BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE. PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR ABOUT 2-4HRS AFTER ONSET. NO OTHER BIG CONCERNS. SFC
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON WEST COMPONENT. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DURING
SHRA/TSRA OTHERWISE VFR.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON LIKELIHOOD AND TIMING OF TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  84  68  86 /  40  40  30  50
ATLANTA         71  82  69  83 /  50  50  50  60
BLAIRSVILLE     64  74  63  78 /  70  70  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    69  79  67  82 /  70  70  60  60
COLUMBUS        73  86  71  87 /  60  50  40  50
GAINESVILLE     69  79  68  81 /  60  50  40  60
MACON           71  89  70  88 /  30  40  20  50
ROME            69  80  68  83 /  70  60  60  60
PEACHTREE CITY  70  84  69  84 /  50  50  40  60
VIDALIA         73  92  72  92 /  40  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...
TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...SNELSON




000
FXUS62 KFFC 040013 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
813 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
NEAR-TERM GRIDS UPDATED TO REFLECT OBSERVED TRENDS AND RECENT
GUIDANCE. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION IN CENTRAL AL TO MOVE EAST INTO
WESTCENTRAL GA AROUND 10PM THEN WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A LARGER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST GA AFTER
2AM SPREADING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST. THESE STORMS SHOULD NOT BE
SEVERE BUT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HVY RAIN...BASED ON THIS WILL
KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING. THIS WEAKENING AREA OF CONVECTION
SAT MORNING COULD AFFECT LOCAL ACTIVITIES IN THE ATL METRO
INCLUDING THE PEACHTREE ROAD RACE. WHATS LEFT OF THIS PRECIP
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION IN
THE AFTERNOON JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH PREFERENCE FOR AREAS NEAR
BOUNDARIES AND GRADIENTS BETWEEN THICK CLOUD COVER AND SUNSHINE.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

..FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST AND RELATIVELY FAST (35-45KT) ZONAL LOW TO MID LVL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SEND ONE IMPULSE AFTER ANOTHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
REGION...SUPPORTING THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

TIMING/DURATION/INTENSITY OF EACH "ROUND" HAS BEEN CHALLENGING GIVEN
RAPID FLUCTUATIONS WITH MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. THE AREA IS IN A BIT
OF LULL THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THINGS TO PICK BACK UP LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS NEXT S/W APPROACHES. MODELS ACTUALLY IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS WAVE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE NAM BEING
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING A 1-3 INCH MAX OF 6-HOUR PRECIP FROM
CENTRAL AL TO NORTHEAST GA BTWN 06-12Z/SAT. TRACK OF S/W ENERGY AND
BEST LOW LVL CONVG SEEM TO SUPPORT THE HEAVIER RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTH GA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT.

ANY BREAK IN CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED ON SATURDAY AS UPR LVL
LOW STRENGTHENS OVER NRN MS/WRN TN AROUND 00Z/SUNDAY. FAVORABLE
MOISTURE/ENERGY ADVECTION WITHIN PRONOUNCED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
AL/GA BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS UPR LOW APPROACHES
EASTERN TENNESSEE BY 12Z/SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOOD PRONE AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GA...
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING THROUGH SUNDAY. EACH
ROUND OF RAIN /TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT/ COULD BRING AT
LEAST AN INCH WITH ISOLD AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES. ROUGH ESTIMATE OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTH/WEST OF A CARROLLTON TO MARIETTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE...BUT
CERTAINLY THIS IS NOT EXACT.

GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE LOW. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IF OUTFLOW-DRIVEN BROKEN LINE/WEAK QLCS ROLLS INTO MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH AND EAST OF ATL...EXPECT A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUING TO BE
PRIMARY THREAT.

DJN.83

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENTLY ADVERTISED
MID TO HIGH END CHANCE GRIDS. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY
BEFORE ERODING AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE
ATMOSPHERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH
REDUCED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK
SUFFICE FOR THE GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

DEESE

39

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
PRIMARY CONCERN IS THREAT FOR TSRA OVERNIGHT AND SAT AFTERNOON.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT OTHER THAN ISOLD TSRA IN WESTCENTRAL
GA 02Z-05Z...AREA OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY OVER NORTHWEST GA AFTER 05Z
SPREADING INTO ATL METRO AROUND 07Z. NOT SURE PRECIP WILL MAKE IT
THAT FAR SOUTH...BUT MOST LIKELY BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE. PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR ABOUT 2-4HRS AFTER ONSET. NO OTHER BIG CONCERNS. SFC
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON WEST COMPONENT. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DURING
SHRA/TSRA OTHERWISE VFR.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON LIKELIHOOD AND TIMING OF TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  84  68  86 /  40  40  30  50
ATLANTA         71  82  69  83 /  50  50  50  60
BLAIRSVILLE     64  74  63  78 /  70  70  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    69  79  67  82 /  70  70  60  60
COLUMBUS        73  86  71  87 /  60  50  40  50
GAINESVILLE     69  79  68  81 /  60  50  40  60
MACON           71  89  70  88 /  30  40  20  50
ROME            69  80  68  83 /  70  60  60  60
PEACHTREE CITY  70  84  69  84 /  50  50  40  60
VIDALIA         73  92  72  92 /  40  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...
TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...SNELSON



000
FXUS62 KCHS 032316
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
716 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
KCLX REFLECTIVITY DATA CLEARLY SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LURKING
JUST SOUTH OF I-16. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM COULD DEVELOP
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TOO CAPPED TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION. ADJUSTED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY OVERTURNED TO KEEP
CONVECTION FROM REDEVELOPING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION COULD MOVE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT GREAT.
WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DISTANT UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM AL/GA IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
THE TERMINALS TONIGHT...AND THE RISK FOR ANY SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. THUS WE
ARE SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KT
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND PART OF
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY
BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 032316
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
716 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
KCLX REFLECTIVITY DATA CLEARLY SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LURKING
JUST SOUTH OF I-16. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM COULD DEVELOP
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TOO CAPPED TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION. ADJUSTED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY OVERTURNED TO KEEP
CONVECTION FROM REDEVELOPING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION COULD MOVE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT GREAT.
WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DISTANT UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM AL/GA IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
THE TERMINALS TONIGHT...AND THE RISK FOR ANY SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. THUS WE
ARE SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KT
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND PART OF
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY
BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 032158
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
558 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO TAKE CURRENT MESOSCALE TRENDS
INTO ACCOUNT. KCLX REFLECTIVITY DATA CLEARLY SHOW AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LURKING JUST SOUTH OF I-16. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM
COULD DEVELOP ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGEST THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TOO CAPPED TO SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION. ADJUSTED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. FARTHER NORTH...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY
OVERTURNED TO KEEP CONVECTION FROM REDEVELOPING. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION COULD MOVE ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
NOT GREAT. WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z
THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN
INCLUDED BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND 20-30 KT
WIND GUSTS THAT ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH A PART OF THE EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 23Z-01Z THIS EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO
OVERNIGHT AND LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18-19Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KT
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND PART OF
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY
BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 032158
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
558 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO TAKE CURRENT MESOSCALE TRENDS
INTO ACCOUNT. KCLX REFLECTIVITY DATA CLEARLY SHOW AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LURKING JUST SOUTH OF I-16. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM
COULD DEVELOP ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGEST THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TOO CAPPED TO SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION. ADJUSTED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. FARTHER NORTH...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY
OVERTURNED TO KEEP CONVECTION FROM REDEVELOPING. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION COULD MOVE ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
NOT GREAT. WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z
THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN
INCLUDED BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND 20-30 KT
WIND GUSTS THAT ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH A PART OF THE EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 23Z-01Z THIS EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO
OVERNIGHT AND LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18-19Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KT
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND PART OF
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY
BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 032158
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
558 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO TAKE CURRENT MESOSCALE TRENDS
INTO ACCOUNT. KCLX REFLECTIVITY DATA CLEARLY SHOW AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LURKING JUST SOUTH OF I-16. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM
COULD DEVELOP ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGEST THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TOO CAPPED TO SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION. ADJUSTED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. FARTHER NORTH...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY
OVERTURNED TO KEEP CONVECTION FROM REDEVELOPING. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION COULD MOVE ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
NOT GREAT. WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z
THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN
INCLUDED BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND 20-30 KT
WIND GUSTS THAT ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH A PART OF THE EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 23Z-01Z THIS EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO
OVERNIGHT AND LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18-19Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KT
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND PART OF
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY
BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 032158
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
558 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO TAKE CURRENT MESOSCALE TRENDS
INTO ACCOUNT. KCLX REFLECTIVITY DATA CLEARLY SHOW AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LURKING JUST SOUTH OF I-16. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM
COULD DEVELOP ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGEST THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TOO CAPPED TO SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION. ADJUSTED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. FARTHER NORTH...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY
OVERTURNED TO KEEP CONVECTION FROM REDEVELOPING. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION COULD MOVE ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
NOT GREAT. WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z
THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN
INCLUDED BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND 20-30 KT
WIND GUSTS THAT ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH A PART OF THE EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 23Z-01Z THIS EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO
OVERNIGHT AND LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18-19Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KT
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND PART OF
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY
BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 032111
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
511 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT
ROUNDS ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
SETUP COULD HELP PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER AREAS WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNTAPPED IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF A
WEST-EAST EXTENDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500 KT ALONG WITH DCAPES AT OR
ABOVE 1000 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD THEY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NOTED AREA.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO
EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z
THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN
INCLUDED BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND 20-30 KT
WIND GUSTS THAT ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH A PART OF THE EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 23Z-01Z THIS EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO
OVERNIGHT AND LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18-19Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KT
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND PART OF
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY
BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/ST
MARINE...DPB/ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 032111
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
511 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT
ROUNDS ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
SETUP COULD HELP PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER AREAS WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNTAPPED IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF A
WEST-EAST EXTENDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500 KT ALONG WITH DCAPES AT OR
ABOVE 1000 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD THEY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NOTED AREA.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO
EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z
THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN
INCLUDED BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND 20-30 KT
WIND GUSTS THAT ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH A PART OF THE EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 23Z-01Z THIS EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO
OVERNIGHT AND LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18-19Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KT
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND PART OF
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY
BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/ST
MARINE...DPB/ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031951
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
351 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL
WATERS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
FOR NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER AREAS WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNTAPPED IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES INDICATES AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500 KT ALONG WITH
DCAPES AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MAINLY SOUTH OF A WEST-
EAST EXTENDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL REMAIN IN A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO
EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z
THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN
INCLUDED BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND 20-30 KT
WIND GUSTS THAT ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH A PART OF THE EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 23Z-01Z THIS EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO
OVERNIGHT AND LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18-19Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KT
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...WATERS OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COAST...AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KTS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE CHS HARBOR LATER THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER REMAINING WATERS
LATER TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING LATE. WINDS/SEAS
COULD VARY WITHIN STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/ST
MARINE...DPB/ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031951
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
351 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL
WATERS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
FOR NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER AREAS WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNTAPPED IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES INDICATES AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500 KT ALONG WITH
DCAPES AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MAINLY SOUTH OF A WEST-
EAST EXTENDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL REMAIN IN A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO
EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z
THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN
INCLUDED BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND 20-30 KT
WIND GUSTS THAT ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH A PART OF THE EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 23Z-01Z THIS EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO
OVERNIGHT AND LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18-19Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KT
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...WATERS OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COAST...AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KTS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE CHS HARBOR LATER THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER REMAINING WATERS
LATER TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING LATE. WINDS/SEAS
COULD VARY WITHIN STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/ST
MARINE...DPB/ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031951
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
351 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL
WATERS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
FOR NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER AREAS WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNTAPPED IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES INDICATES AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500 KT ALONG WITH
DCAPES AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MAINLY SOUTH OF A WEST-
EAST EXTENDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL REMAIN IN A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO
EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z
THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN
INCLUDED BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND 20-30 KT
WIND GUSTS THAT ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH A PART OF THE EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 23Z-01Z THIS EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO
OVERNIGHT AND LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18-19Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KT
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...WATERS OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COAST...AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KTS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE CHS HARBOR LATER THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER REMAINING WATERS
LATER TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING LATE. WINDS/SEAS
COULD VARY WITHIN STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/ST
MARINE...DPB/ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031951
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
351 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL
WATERS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
FOR NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER AREAS WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNTAPPED IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES INDICATES AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500 KT ALONG WITH
DCAPES AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MAINLY SOUTH OF A WEST-
EAST EXTENDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL REMAIN IN A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO
EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z
THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN
INCLUDED BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND 20-30 KT
WIND GUSTS THAT ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH A PART OF THE EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 23Z-01Z THIS EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO
OVERNIGHT AND LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18-19Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KT
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...WATERS OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COAST...AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KTS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE CHS HARBOR LATER THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER REMAINING WATERS
LATER TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING LATE. WINDS/SEAS
COULD VARY WITHIN STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/ST
MARINE...DPB/ST




000
FXUS62 KFFC 031934
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
334 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST AND RELATIVELY FAST (35-45KT) ZONAL LOW TO MID LVL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SEND ONE IMPULSE AFTER ANOTHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
REGION...SUPPORTING THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

TIMING/DURATION/INTENSITY OF EACH "ROUND" HAS BEEN CHALLENGING GIVEN
RAPID FLUCTUATIONS WITH MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. THE AREA IS IN A BIT
OF LULL THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THINGS TO PICK BACK UP LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS NEXT S/W APPROACHES. MODELS ACTUALLY IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS WAVE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE NAM BEING
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING A 1-3 INCH MAX OF 6-HOUR PRECIP FROM
CENTRAL AL TO NORTHEAST GA BTWN 06-12Z/SAT. TRACK OF S/W ENERGY AND
BEST LOW LVL CONVG SEEM TO SUPPORT THE HEAVIER RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTH GA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT.

ANY BREAK IN CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED ON SATURDAY AS UPR LVL
LOW STRENGTHENS OVER NRN MS/WRN TN AROUND 00Z/SUNDAY. FAVORABLE
MOISTURE/ENERGY ADVECTION WITHIN PRONOUNCED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
AL/GA BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS UPR LOW APPROACHES
EASTERN TENNESSEE BY 12Z/SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOOD PRONE AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GA...
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING THROUGH SUNDAY. EACH
ROUND OF RAIN /TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT/ COULD BRING AT
LEAST AN INCH WITH ISOLD AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES. ROUGH ESTIMATE OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTH/WEST OF A CARROLLTON TO MARIETTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE...BUT
CERTAINLY THIS IS NOT EXACT.

GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE LOW. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IF OUTFLOW-DRIVEN BROKEN LINE/WEAK QLCS ROLLS INTO MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH AND EAST OF ATL...EXPECT A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUING TO BE
PRIMARY THREAT.

DJN.83


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENTLY ADVERTISED
MID TO HIGH END CHANCE GRIDS. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY
BEFORE ERODING AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE
ATMOSPHERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH
REDUCED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK
SUFFICE FOR THE GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

DEESE


&&

39

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION AT THIS TIME AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN I-16 AND I-20. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS
OVER ALABAMA MOVING EAST ALONG/NORTH OF I-20 SHOULD AFFECT ATL
METRO AREA BETWEEN 19-20Z. LOOK FOR JUST BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN...BEFORE SPOTTY -SHRA FOLLOW THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. EXPECT NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA TO IMPACT AREA/ATL
AFT 06Z TONIGHT. COULD SEE ONGOING SHOWERS BEHIND INITIAL PUSH OF
STORMS THAT LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
CAPABILITY OF <2SM VSBY WITH +RA AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS 20-30KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF ON ALL ELEMENTS

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  87  71  86 /  50  50  40  50
ATLANTA         70  85  72  83 /  50  50  50  60
BLAIRSVILLE     64  77  65  78 /  60  70  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    68  83  70  82 /  60  70  70  60
COLUMBUS        72  89  72  87 /  30  50  40  50
GAINESVILLE     68  82  70  81 /  60  60  50  60
MACON           71  92  71  88 /  30  50  30  50
ROME            69  83  70  83 /  70  70  60  60
PEACHTREE CITY  70  86  71  84 /  40  50  40  60
VIDALIA         73  93  73  92 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CRAWFORD...
DODGE...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...
JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...PEACH...PIKE...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...
UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...
TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...DJN.83



000
FXUS62 KFFC 031934
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
334 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST AND RELATIVELY FAST (35-45KT) ZONAL LOW TO MID LVL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SEND ONE IMPULSE AFTER ANOTHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
REGION...SUPPORTING THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

TIMING/DURATION/INTENSITY OF EACH "ROUND" HAS BEEN CHALLENGING GIVEN
RAPID FLUCTUATIONS WITH MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. THE AREA IS IN A BIT
OF LULL THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THINGS TO PICK BACK UP LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS NEXT S/W APPROACHES. MODELS ACTUALLY IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS WAVE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE NAM BEING
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING A 1-3 INCH MAX OF 6-HOUR PRECIP FROM
CENTRAL AL TO NORTHEAST GA BTWN 06-12Z/SAT. TRACK OF S/W ENERGY AND
BEST LOW LVL CONVG SEEM TO SUPPORT THE HEAVIER RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTH GA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT.

ANY BREAK IN CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED ON SATURDAY AS UPR LVL
LOW STRENGTHENS OVER NRN MS/WRN TN AROUND 00Z/SUNDAY. FAVORABLE
MOISTURE/ENERGY ADVECTION WITHIN PRONOUNCED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
AL/GA BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS UPR LOW APPROACHES
EASTERN TENNESSEE BY 12Z/SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOOD PRONE AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GA...
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING THROUGH SUNDAY. EACH
ROUND OF RAIN /TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT/ COULD BRING AT
LEAST AN INCH WITH ISOLD AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES. ROUGH ESTIMATE OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTH/WEST OF A CARROLLTON TO MARIETTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE...BUT
CERTAINLY THIS IS NOT EXACT.

GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE LOW. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IF OUTFLOW-DRIVEN BROKEN LINE/WEAK QLCS ROLLS INTO MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH AND EAST OF ATL...EXPECT A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUING TO BE
PRIMARY THREAT.

DJN.83


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENTLY ADVERTISED
MID TO HIGH END CHANCE GRIDS. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY
BEFORE ERODING AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE
ATMOSPHERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH
REDUCED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK
SUFFICE FOR THE GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

DEESE


&&

39

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION AT THIS TIME AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN I-16 AND I-20. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS
OVER ALABAMA MOVING EAST ALONG/NORTH OF I-20 SHOULD AFFECT ATL
METRO AREA BETWEEN 19-20Z. LOOK FOR JUST BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN...BEFORE SPOTTY -SHRA FOLLOW THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. EXPECT NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA TO IMPACT AREA/ATL
AFT 06Z TONIGHT. COULD SEE ONGOING SHOWERS BEHIND INITIAL PUSH OF
STORMS THAT LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
CAPABILITY OF <2SM VSBY WITH +RA AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS 20-30KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF ON ALL ELEMENTS

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  87  71  86 /  50  50  40  50
ATLANTA         70  85  72  83 /  50  50  50  60
BLAIRSVILLE     64  77  65  78 /  60  70  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    68  83  70  82 /  60  70  70  60
COLUMBUS        72  89  72  87 /  30  50  40  50
GAINESVILLE     68  82  70  81 /  60  60  50  60
MACON           71  92  71  88 /  30  50  30  50
ROME            69  83  70  83 /  70  70  60  60
PEACHTREE CITY  70  86  71  84 /  40  50  40  60
VIDALIA         73  93  73  92 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CRAWFORD...
DODGE...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...
JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...PEACH...PIKE...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...
UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...
TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...DJN.83



000
FXUS62 KFFC 031934
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
334 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST AND RELATIVELY FAST (35-45KT) ZONAL LOW TO MID LVL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SEND ONE IMPULSE AFTER ANOTHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
REGION...SUPPORTING THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

TIMING/DURATION/INTENSITY OF EACH "ROUND" HAS BEEN CHALLENGING GIVEN
RAPID FLUCTUATIONS WITH MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. THE AREA IS IN A BIT
OF LULL THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THINGS TO PICK BACK UP LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS NEXT S/W APPROACHES. MODELS ACTUALLY IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS WAVE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE NAM BEING
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING A 1-3 INCH MAX OF 6-HOUR PRECIP FROM
CENTRAL AL TO NORTHEAST GA BTWN 06-12Z/SAT. TRACK OF S/W ENERGY AND
BEST LOW LVL CONVG SEEM TO SUPPORT THE HEAVIER RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTH GA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT.

ANY BREAK IN CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED ON SATURDAY AS UPR LVL
LOW STRENGTHENS OVER NRN MS/WRN TN AROUND 00Z/SUNDAY. FAVORABLE
MOISTURE/ENERGY ADVECTION WITHIN PRONOUNCED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
AL/GA BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS UPR LOW APPROACHES
EASTERN TENNESSEE BY 12Z/SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOOD PRONE AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GA...
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING THROUGH SUNDAY. EACH
ROUND OF RAIN /TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT/ COULD BRING AT
LEAST AN INCH WITH ISOLD AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES. ROUGH ESTIMATE OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTH/WEST OF A CARROLLTON TO MARIETTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE...BUT
CERTAINLY THIS IS NOT EXACT.

GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE LOW. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IF OUTFLOW-DRIVEN BROKEN LINE/WEAK QLCS ROLLS INTO MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH AND EAST OF ATL...EXPECT A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUING TO BE
PRIMARY THREAT.

DJN.83


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENTLY ADVERTISED
MID TO HIGH END CHANCE GRIDS. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY
BEFORE ERODING AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE
ATMOSPHERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH
REDUCED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK
SUFFICE FOR THE GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

DEESE


&&

39

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION AT THIS TIME AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN I-16 AND I-20. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS
OVER ALABAMA MOVING EAST ALONG/NORTH OF I-20 SHOULD AFFECT ATL
METRO AREA BETWEEN 19-20Z. LOOK FOR JUST BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN...BEFORE SPOTTY -SHRA FOLLOW THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. EXPECT NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA TO IMPACT AREA/ATL
AFT 06Z TONIGHT. COULD SEE ONGOING SHOWERS BEHIND INITIAL PUSH OF
STORMS THAT LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
CAPABILITY OF <2SM VSBY WITH +RA AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS 20-30KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF ON ALL ELEMENTS

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  87  71  86 /  50  50  40  50
ATLANTA         70  85  72  83 /  50  50  50  60
BLAIRSVILLE     64  77  65  78 /  60  70  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    68  83  70  82 /  60  70  70  60
COLUMBUS        72  89  72  87 /  30  50  40  50
GAINESVILLE     68  82  70  81 /  60  60  50  60
MACON           71  92  71  88 /  30  50  30  50
ROME            69  83  70  83 /  70  70  60  60
PEACHTREE CITY  70  86  71  84 /  40  50  40  60
VIDALIA         73  93  73  92 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CRAWFORD...
DODGE...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...
JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...PEACH...PIKE...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...
UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...
TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...DJN.83




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031810
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
210 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY CONTINUE TO
HELP CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS
AND STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION SUPPORT
LIMITED COVERAGE. THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY
SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE TAF
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H85 JET. OBSERVATION
TRENDS AND MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME. INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031810
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
210 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY CONTINUE TO
HELP CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS
AND STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION SUPPORT
LIMITED COVERAGE. THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY
SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE TAF
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H85 JET. OBSERVATION
TRENDS AND MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME. INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031810
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
210 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY CONTINUE TO
HELP CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS
AND STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION SUPPORT
LIMITED COVERAGE. THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY
SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE TAF
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H85 JET. OBSERVATION
TRENDS AND MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME. INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031810
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
210 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY CONTINUE TO
HELP CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS
AND STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION SUPPORT
LIMITED COVERAGE. THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY
SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE TAF
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H85 JET. OBSERVATION
TRENDS AND MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME. INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031810
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
210 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY CONTINUE TO
HELP CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS
AND STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION SUPPORT
LIMITED COVERAGE. THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY
SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE TAF
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H85 JET. OBSERVATION
TRENDS AND MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME. INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031810
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
210 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY CONTINUE TO
HELP CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS
AND STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION SUPPORT
LIMITED COVERAGE. THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY
SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE TAF
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H85 JET. OBSERVATION
TRENDS AND MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME. INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031810
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
210 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY CONTINUE TO
HELP CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS
AND STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION SUPPORT
LIMITED COVERAGE. THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY
SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE TAF
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H85 JET. OBSERVATION
TRENDS AND MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME. INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031810
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
210 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY CONTINUE TO
HELP CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS
AND STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION SUPPORT
LIMITED COVERAGE. THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY
SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE TAF
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H85 JET. OBSERVATION
TRENDS AND MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME. INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031810
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
210 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY CONTINUE TO
HELP CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS
AND STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION SUPPORT
LIMITED COVERAGE. THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY
SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE TAF
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H85 JET. OBSERVATION
TRENDS AND MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME. INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KFFC 031753 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
153 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UDPATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTH HALF OF GEORGIA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL INCREASING SOUTH OF I-20.

DISCUSSION...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH
YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL PLUS THE 1 TO 3 INCHES THAT HAS FALLEN IN SPOTS
THIS MORNING...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

OTHER STORY IS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WHICH IS NOW FOCUSED SOUTH OF I-
20/I-85 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAD A PEAK WIND GUST OF 45 MPH
AT THE OFFICE /PEACHTREE CITY/ WHEN BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MOVED
THROUGH AROUND 10AM EDT. STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED (30-40KTS JUST OFF SFC)
ENVIRONMENT - PER FFC/ATL 12Z SOUNDING.

ADJUSTED QPF OVER NEXT 6-9 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR RAINFALL. NO OTHER
MAJOR CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH... CURRENTLY
CAUSING SO MUCH UNSETTLED WEATHER... WEAKENING AND SHEARING
EASTWARD BY LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... A FAIRLY ACTIVE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION
ON TUESDAY. ALL THIS WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY MID WEAK... AND POSSIBLE REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
DESPITE ANY WEAK RIDGE INFLUENCE... THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD STILL BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

39

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION AT THIS TIME AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN I-16 AND I-20. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS
OVER ALABAMA MOVING EAST ALONG/NORTH OF I-20 SHOULD AFFECT ATL
METRO AREA BETWEEN 19-20Z. LOOK FOR JUST BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN...BEFORE SPOTTY -SHRA FOLLOW THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. EXPECT NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA TO IMPACT AREA/ATL
AFT 06Z TONIGHT. COULD SEE ONGOING SHOWERS BEHIND INITIAL PUSH OF
STORMS THAT LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
CAPABILITY OF <2SM VSBY WITH +RA AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS 20-30KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF ON ALL ELEMENTS

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          80  69  87  71 /  80  50  50  40
ATLANTA         80  70  85  72 /  80  50  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     73  64  77  65 / 100  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    79  68  83  70 /  90  60  70  70
COLUMBUS        88  72  89  72 /  60  30  50  40
GAINESVILLE     78  68  82  70 /  90  60  60  50
MACON           89  71  92  71 /  70  30  50  30
ROME            79  69  83  70 / 100  70  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  81  70  86  71 /  80  40  50  40
VIDALIA         89  73  93  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CRAWFORD...
DODGE...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...
JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...PEACH...PIKE...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...
UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...
TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...DJN.83



000
FXUS62 KFFC 031753 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
153 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UDPATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTH HALF OF GEORGIA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL INCREASING SOUTH OF I-20.

DISCUSSION...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH
YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL PLUS THE 1 TO 3 INCHES THAT HAS FALLEN IN SPOTS
THIS MORNING...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

OTHER STORY IS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WHICH IS NOW FOCUSED SOUTH OF I-
20/I-85 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAD A PEAK WIND GUST OF 45 MPH
AT THE OFFICE /PEACHTREE CITY/ WHEN BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MOVED
THROUGH AROUND 10AM EDT. STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED (30-40KTS JUST OFF SFC)
ENVIRONMENT - PER FFC/ATL 12Z SOUNDING.

ADJUSTED QPF OVER NEXT 6-9 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR RAINFALL. NO OTHER
MAJOR CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH... CURRENTLY
CAUSING SO MUCH UNSETTLED WEATHER... WEAKENING AND SHEARING
EASTWARD BY LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... A FAIRLY ACTIVE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION
ON TUESDAY. ALL THIS WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY MID WEAK... AND POSSIBLE REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
DESPITE ANY WEAK RIDGE INFLUENCE... THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD STILL BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

39

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION AT THIS TIME AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN I-16 AND I-20. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS
OVER ALABAMA MOVING EAST ALONG/NORTH OF I-20 SHOULD AFFECT ATL
METRO AREA BETWEEN 19-20Z. LOOK FOR JUST BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN...BEFORE SPOTTY -SHRA FOLLOW THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. EXPECT NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA TO IMPACT AREA/ATL
AFT 06Z TONIGHT. COULD SEE ONGOING SHOWERS BEHIND INITIAL PUSH OF
STORMS THAT LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
CAPABILITY OF <2SM VSBY WITH +RA AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS 20-30KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF ON ALL ELEMENTS

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          80  69  87  71 /  80  50  50  40
ATLANTA         80  70  85  72 /  80  50  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     73  64  77  65 / 100  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    79  68  83  70 /  90  60  70  70
COLUMBUS        88  72  89  72 /  60  30  50  40
GAINESVILLE     78  68  82  70 /  90  60  60  50
MACON           89  71  92  71 /  70  30  50  30
ROME            79  69  83  70 / 100  70  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  81  70  86  71 /  80  40  50  40
VIDALIA         89  73  93  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CRAWFORD...
DODGE...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...
JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...PEACH...PIKE...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...
UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...
TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...DJN.83



000
FXUS62 KFFC 031753 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
153 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UDPATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTH HALF OF GEORGIA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL INCREASING SOUTH OF I-20.

DISCUSSION...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH
YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL PLUS THE 1 TO 3 INCHES THAT HAS FALLEN IN SPOTS
THIS MORNING...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

OTHER STORY IS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WHICH IS NOW FOCUSED SOUTH OF I-
20/I-85 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAD A PEAK WIND GUST OF 45 MPH
AT THE OFFICE /PEACHTREE CITY/ WHEN BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MOVED
THROUGH AROUND 10AM EDT. STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED (30-40KTS JUST OFF SFC)
ENVIRONMENT - PER FFC/ATL 12Z SOUNDING.

ADJUSTED QPF OVER NEXT 6-9 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR RAINFALL. NO OTHER
MAJOR CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH... CURRENTLY
CAUSING SO MUCH UNSETTLED WEATHER... WEAKENING AND SHEARING
EASTWARD BY LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... A FAIRLY ACTIVE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION
ON TUESDAY. ALL THIS WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY MID WEAK... AND POSSIBLE REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
DESPITE ANY WEAK RIDGE INFLUENCE... THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD STILL BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

39

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION AT THIS TIME AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN I-16 AND I-20. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS
OVER ALABAMA MOVING EAST ALONG/NORTH OF I-20 SHOULD AFFECT ATL
METRO AREA BETWEEN 19-20Z. LOOK FOR JUST BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN...BEFORE SPOTTY -SHRA FOLLOW THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. EXPECT NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA TO IMPACT AREA/ATL
AFT 06Z TONIGHT. COULD SEE ONGOING SHOWERS BEHIND INITIAL PUSH OF
STORMS THAT LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
CAPABILITY OF <2SM VSBY WITH +RA AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS 20-30KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF ON ALL ELEMENTS

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          80  69  87  71 /  80  50  50  40
ATLANTA         80  70  85  72 /  80  50  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     73  64  77  65 / 100  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    79  68  83  70 /  90  60  70  70
COLUMBUS        88  72  89  72 /  60  30  50  40
GAINESVILLE     78  68  82  70 /  90  60  60  50
MACON           89  71  92  71 /  70  30  50  30
ROME            79  69  83  70 / 100  70  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  81  70  86  71 /  80  40  50  40
VIDALIA         89  73  93  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CRAWFORD...
DODGE...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...
JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...PEACH...PIKE...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...
UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...
TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...DJN.83



000
FXUS62 KFFC 031753 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
153 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UDPATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTH HALF OF GEORGIA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL INCREASING SOUTH OF I-20.

DISCUSSION...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH
YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL PLUS THE 1 TO 3 INCHES THAT HAS FALLEN IN SPOTS
THIS MORNING...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

OTHER STORY IS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WHICH IS NOW FOCUSED SOUTH OF I-
20/I-85 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAD A PEAK WIND GUST OF 45 MPH
AT THE OFFICE /PEACHTREE CITY/ WHEN BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MOVED
THROUGH AROUND 10AM EDT. STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED (30-40KTS JUST OFF SFC)
ENVIRONMENT - PER FFC/ATL 12Z SOUNDING.

ADJUSTED QPF OVER NEXT 6-9 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR RAINFALL. NO OTHER
MAJOR CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH... CURRENTLY
CAUSING SO MUCH UNSETTLED WEATHER... WEAKENING AND SHEARING
EASTWARD BY LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... A FAIRLY ACTIVE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION
ON TUESDAY. ALL THIS WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY MID WEAK... AND POSSIBLE REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
DESPITE ANY WEAK RIDGE INFLUENCE... THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD STILL BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

39

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION AT THIS TIME AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN I-16 AND I-20. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS
OVER ALABAMA MOVING EAST ALONG/NORTH OF I-20 SHOULD AFFECT ATL
METRO AREA BETWEEN 19-20Z. LOOK FOR JUST BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN...BEFORE SPOTTY -SHRA FOLLOW THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. EXPECT NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA TO IMPACT AREA/ATL
AFT 06Z TONIGHT. COULD SEE ONGOING SHOWERS BEHIND INITIAL PUSH OF
STORMS THAT LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
CAPABILITY OF <2SM VSBY WITH +RA AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS 20-30KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF ON ALL ELEMENTS

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          80  69  87  71 /  80  50  50  40
ATLANTA         80  70  85  72 /  80  50  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     73  64  77  65 / 100  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    79  68  83  70 /  90  60  70  70
COLUMBUS        88  72  89  72 /  60  30  50  40
GAINESVILLE     78  68  82  70 /  90  60  60  50
MACON           89  71  92  71 /  70  30  50  30
ROME            79  69  83  70 / 100  70  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  81  70  86  71 /  80  40  50  40
VIDALIA         89  73  93  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CRAWFORD...
DODGE...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...
JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...PEACH...PIKE...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...
UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...
TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...DJN.83



000
FXUS62 KFFC 031753 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
153 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UDPATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTH HALF OF GEORGIA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL INCREASING SOUTH OF I-20.

DISCUSSION...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH
YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL PLUS THE 1 TO 3 INCHES THAT HAS FALLEN IN SPOTS
THIS MORNING...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

OTHER STORY IS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WHICH IS NOW FOCUSED SOUTH OF I-
20/I-85 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAD A PEAK WIND GUST OF 45 MPH
AT THE OFFICE /PEACHTREE CITY/ WHEN BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MOVED
THROUGH AROUND 10AM EDT. STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED (30-40KTS JUST OFF SFC)
ENVIRONMENT - PER FFC/ATL 12Z SOUNDING.

ADJUSTED QPF OVER NEXT 6-9 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR RAINFALL. NO OTHER
MAJOR CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH... CURRENTLY
CAUSING SO MUCH UNSETTLED WEATHER... WEAKENING AND SHEARING
EASTWARD BY LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... A FAIRLY ACTIVE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION
ON TUESDAY. ALL THIS WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY MID WEAK... AND POSSIBLE REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
DESPITE ANY WEAK RIDGE INFLUENCE... THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD STILL BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

39

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION AT THIS TIME AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN I-16 AND I-20. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS
OVER ALABAMA MOVING EAST ALONG/NORTH OF I-20 SHOULD AFFECT ATL
METRO AREA BETWEEN 19-20Z. LOOK FOR JUST BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN...BEFORE SPOTTY -SHRA FOLLOW THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. EXPECT NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA TO IMPACT AREA/ATL
AFT 06Z TONIGHT. COULD SEE ONGOING SHOWERS BEHIND INITIAL PUSH OF
STORMS THAT LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
CAPABILITY OF <2SM VSBY WITH +RA AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS 20-30KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF ON ALL ELEMENTS

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          80  69  87  71 /  80  50  50  40
ATLANTA         80  70  85  72 /  80  50  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     73  64  77  65 / 100  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    79  68  83  70 /  90  60  70  70
COLUMBUS        88  72  89  72 /  60  30  50  40
GAINESVILLE     78  68  82  70 /  90  60  60  50
MACON           89  71  92  71 /  70  30  50  30
ROME            79  69  83  70 / 100  70  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  81  70  86  71 /  80  40  50  40
VIDALIA         89  73  93  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CRAWFORD...
DODGE...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...
JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...PEACH...PIKE...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...
UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...
TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...DJN.83



000
FXUS62 KFFC 031753 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
153 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UDPATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTH HALF OF GEORGIA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL INCREASING SOUTH OF I-20.

DISCUSSION...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH
YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL PLUS THE 1 TO 3 INCHES THAT HAS FALLEN IN SPOTS
THIS MORNING...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

OTHER STORY IS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WHICH IS NOW FOCUSED SOUTH OF I-
20/I-85 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAD A PEAK WIND GUST OF 45 MPH
AT THE OFFICE /PEACHTREE CITY/ WHEN BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MOVED
THROUGH AROUND 10AM EDT. STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED (30-40KTS JUST OFF SFC)
ENVIRONMENT - PER FFC/ATL 12Z SOUNDING.

ADJUSTED QPF OVER NEXT 6-9 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR RAINFALL. NO OTHER
MAJOR CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH... CURRENTLY
CAUSING SO MUCH UNSETTLED WEATHER... WEAKENING AND SHEARING
EASTWARD BY LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... A FAIRLY ACTIVE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION
ON TUESDAY. ALL THIS WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY MID WEAK... AND POSSIBLE REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
DESPITE ANY WEAK RIDGE INFLUENCE... THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD STILL BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

39

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION AT THIS TIME AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN I-16 AND I-20. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS
OVER ALABAMA MOVING EAST ALONG/NORTH OF I-20 SHOULD AFFECT ATL
METRO AREA BETWEEN 19-20Z. LOOK FOR JUST BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN...BEFORE SPOTTY -SHRA FOLLOW THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. EXPECT NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA TO IMPACT AREA/ATL
AFT 06Z TONIGHT. COULD SEE ONGOING SHOWERS BEHIND INITIAL PUSH OF
STORMS THAT LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
CAPABILITY OF <2SM VSBY WITH +RA AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS 20-30KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF ON ALL ELEMENTS

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          80  69  87  71 /  80  50  50  40
ATLANTA         80  70  85  72 /  80  50  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     73  64  77  65 / 100  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    79  68  83  70 /  90  60  70  70
COLUMBUS        88  72  89  72 /  60  30  50  40
GAINESVILLE     78  68  82  70 /  90  60  60  50
MACON           89  71  92  71 /  70  30  50  30
ROME            79  69  83  70 / 100  70  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  81  70  86  71 /  80  40  50  40
VIDALIA         89  73  93  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CRAWFORD...
DODGE...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...
JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...PEACH...PIKE...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...
UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...
TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...DJN.83




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031746
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
146 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS
ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE...IN THE FORM
OF A LINE AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED
FROM EARLIER MORNING CONVECTION. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500
J/KG ALONG WITH FORCING FROM A 30-40 KT LOW LVL JET DEPICTED ON THE
LATEST CHS SPECIAL SOUNDING...SHOULD FAVOR A ROUND OF ENHANCED
CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF LINE...AS CURRENTLY SEEN VIA RADAR IMAGERY
OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD
THE COAST FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENTER NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR/HELICITY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG SFC HEATING
WILL CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS A RESULT...SBCAPES WILL
LIKELY APPROACH 3000-3500 J/KG. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE LOW LVL JET TO THE NORTH. GIVEN
THE SETUP...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS DCAPES
APPROACH AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK AROUND 90 FOR MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...BUT SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH APPROACHING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z
THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN
INCLUDED BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND 20-30 KT
WIND GUSTS THAT ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH A PART OF THE EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 23Z-01Z THIS EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO
OVERNIGHT AND LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18-19Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT BEGINNING MID-
AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5
FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS/SEAS COULD VARY
WITHIN STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031746
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
146 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS
ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE...IN THE FORM
OF A LINE AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED
FROM EARLIER MORNING CONVECTION. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500
J/KG ALONG WITH FORCING FROM A 30-40 KT LOW LVL JET DEPICTED ON THE
LATEST CHS SPECIAL SOUNDING...SHOULD FAVOR A ROUND OF ENHANCED
CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF LINE...AS CURRENTLY SEEN VIA RADAR IMAGERY
OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD
THE COAST FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENTER NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR/HELICITY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG SFC HEATING
WILL CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS A RESULT...SBCAPES WILL
LIKELY APPROACH 3000-3500 J/KG. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE LOW LVL JET TO THE NORTH. GIVEN
THE SETUP...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS DCAPES
APPROACH AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK AROUND 90 FOR MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...BUT SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH APPROACHING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z
THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN
INCLUDED BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND 20-30 KT
WIND GUSTS THAT ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH A PART OF THE EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 23Z-01Z THIS EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO
OVERNIGHT AND LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18-19Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT BEGINNING MID-
AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5
FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS/SEAS COULD VARY
WITHIN STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031746
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
146 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS
ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE...IN THE FORM
OF A LINE AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED
FROM EARLIER MORNING CONVECTION. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500
J/KG ALONG WITH FORCING FROM A 30-40 KT LOW LVL JET DEPICTED ON THE
LATEST CHS SPECIAL SOUNDING...SHOULD FAVOR A ROUND OF ENHANCED
CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF LINE...AS CURRENTLY SEEN VIA RADAR IMAGERY
OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD
THE COAST FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENTER NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR/HELICITY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG SFC HEATING
WILL CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS A RESULT...SBCAPES WILL
LIKELY APPROACH 3000-3500 J/KG. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE LOW LVL JET TO THE NORTH. GIVEN
THE SETUP...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS DCAPES
APPROACH AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK AROUND 90 FOR MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...BUT SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH APPROACHING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z
THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN
INCLUDED BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND 20-30 KT
WIND GUSTS THAT ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH A PART OF THE EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 23Z-01Z THIS EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO
OVERNIGHT AND LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18-19Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT BEGINNING MID-
AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5
FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS/SEAS COULD VARY
WITHIN STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031746
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
146 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS
ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE...IN THE FORM
OF A LINE AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED
FROM EARLIER MORNING CONVECTION. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500
J/KG ALONG WITH FORCING FROM A 30-40 KT LOW LVL JET DEPICTED ON THE
LATEST CHS SPECIAL SOUNDING...SHOULD FAVOR A ROUND OF ENHANCED
CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF LINE...AS CURRENTLY SEEN VIA RADAR IMAGERY
OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD
THE COAST FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENTER NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR/HELICITY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG SFC HEATING
WILL CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS A RESULT...SBCAPES WILL
LIKELY APPROACH 3000-3500 J/KG. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE LOW LVL JET TO THE NORTH. GIVEN
THE SETUP...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS DCAPES
APPROACH AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK AROUND 90 FOR MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...BUT SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH APPROACHING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z
THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN
INCLUDED BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND 20-30 KT
WIND GUSTS THAT ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH A PART OF THE EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 23Z-01Z THIS EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO
OVERNIGHT AND LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18-19Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT BEGINNING MID-
AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5
FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS/SEAS COULD VARY
WITHIN STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031746
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
146 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS
ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE...IN THE FORM
OF A LINE AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED
FROM EARLIER MORNING CONVECTION. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500
J/KG ALONG WITH FORCING FROM A 30-40 KT LOW LVL JET DEPICTED ON THE
LATEST CHS SPECIAL SOUNDING...SHOULD FAVOR A ROUND OF ENHANCED
CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF LINE...AS CURRENTLY SEEN VIA RADAR IMAGERY
OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD
THE COAST FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENTER NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR/HELICITY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG SFC HEATING
WILL CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS A RESULT...SBCAPES WILL
LIKELY APPROACH 3000-3500 J/KG. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE LOW LVL JET TO THE NORTH. GIVEN
THE SETUP...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS DCAPES
APPROACH AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK AROUND 90 FOR MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...BUT SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH APPROACHING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z
THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN
INCLUDED BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND 20-30 KT
WIND GUSTS THAT ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH A PART OF THE EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 23Z-01Z THIS EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO
OVERNIGHT AND LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18-19Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT BEGINNING MID-
AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5
FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS/SEAS COULD VARY
WITHIN STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031746
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
146 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS
ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE...IN THE FORM
OF A LINE AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED
FROM EARLIER MORNING CONVECTION. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500
J/KG ALONG WITH FORCING FROM A 30-40 KT LOW LVL JET DEPICTED ON THE
LATEST CHS SPECIAL SOUNDING...SHOULD FAVOR A ROUND OF ENHANCED
CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF LINE...AS CURRENTLY SEEN VIA RADAR IMAGERY
OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD
THE COAST FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENTER NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR/HELICITY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG SFC HEATING
WILL CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS A RESULT...SBCAPES WILL
LIKELY APPROACH 3000-3500 J/KG. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE LOW LVL JET TO THE NORTH. GIVEN
THE SETUP...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS DCAPES
APPROACH AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK AROUND 90 FOR MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...BUT SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH APPROACHING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z
THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN
INCLUDED BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND 20-30 KT
WIND GUSTS THAT ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH A PART OF THE EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 23Z-01Z THIS EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO
OVERNIGHT AND LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18-19Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT BEGINNING MID-
AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5
FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS/SEAS COULD VARY
WITHIN STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB



000
FXUS62 KCAE 031722
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
122 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE TRAINING HAS PROMPTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH SHEAR
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALSO SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND IN THE SOUTH PART. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED.

AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY CONTINUE
TO HELP CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR
TRENDS AND STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION
SUPPORT LIMITED COVERAGE. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE TAF
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H85 JET. OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. VERY STRONG
WIND MAY MIX DOWN DURING SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...MAINLY
DURING THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ018-025-
     030-035>037-041.
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 031722
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
122 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE TRAINING HAS PROMPTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH SHEAR
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALSO SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND IN THE SOUTH PART. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED.

AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY CONTINUE
TO HELP CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR
TRENDS AND STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION
SUPPORT LIMITED COVERAGE. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE TAF
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H85 JET. OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. VERY STRONG
WIND MAY MIX DOWN DURING SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...MAINLY
DURING THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ018-025-
     030-035>037-041.
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031722
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
122 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE TRAINING HAS PROMPTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH SHEAR
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALSO SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND IN THE SOUTH PART. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED.

AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY CONTINUE
TO HELP CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR
TRENDS AND STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION
SUPPORT LIMITED COVERAGE. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE TAF
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H85 JET. OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. VERY STRONG
WIND MAY MIX DOWN DURING SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...MAINLY
DURING THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ018-025-
     030-035>037-041.
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCHS 031717
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
117 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS
ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE...IN THE FORM
OF A LINE AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED
FROM EARLIER MORNING CONVECTION. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500
J/KG ALONG WITH FORCING FROM A 30-40 KT LOW LVL JET DEPICTED ON THE
LATEST CHS SPECIAL SOUNDING...SHOULD FAVOR A ROUND OF ENHANCED
CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF LINE...AS CURRENTLY SEEN VIA RADAR IMAGERY
OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD
THE COAST FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENTER NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR/HELICITY AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG SFC HEATING WILL
CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS A RESULT...SBCAPES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH 3000-3500 J/KG. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS STRONG GIVEN
THE POSITION OF THE LOW LVL JET TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE SETUP...THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS DCAPES APPROACH AT OR ABOVE 1000
J/KG.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK AROUND 90 FOR MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...BUT SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH APPROACHING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT STRONGER CONVECTION WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO
GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN INCLUDED FOR 19Z-23Z WITH
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO 18Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT BEGINNING MID-
AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5
FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS/SEAS COULD VARY
WITHIN STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031717
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
117 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS
ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE...IN THE FORM
OF A LINE AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED
FROM EARLIER MORNING CONVECTION. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500
J/KG ALONG WITH FORCING FROM A 30-40 KT LOW LVL JET DEPICTED ON THE
LATEST CHS SPECIAL SOUNDING...SHOULD FAVOR A ROUND OF ENHANCED
CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF LINE...AS CURRENTLY SEEN VIA RADAR IMAGERY
OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD
THE COAST FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENTER NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR/HELICITY AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG SFC HEATING WILL
CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS A RESULT...SBCAPES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH 3000-3500 J/KG. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS STRONG GIVEN
THE POSITION OF THE LOW LVL JET TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE SETUP...THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS DCAPES APPROACH AT OR ABOVE 1000
J/KG.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK AROUND 90 FOR MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...BUT SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH APPROACHING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT STRONGER CONVECTION WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO
GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN INCLUDED FOR 19Z-23Z WITH
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO 18Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT BEGINNING MID-
AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5
FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS/SEAS COULD VARY
WITHIN STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031717
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
117 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS
ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE...IN THE FORM
OF A LINE AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED
FROM EARLIER MORNING CONVECTION. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500
J/KG ALONG WITH FORCING FROM A 30-40 KT LOW LVL JET DEPICTED ON THE
LATEST CHS SPECIAL SOUNDING...SHOULD FAVOR A ROUND OF ENHANCED
CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF LINE...AS CURRENTLY SEEN VIA RADAR IMAGERY
OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD
THE COAST FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENTER NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR/HELICITY AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG SFC HEATING WILL
CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS A RESULT...SBCAPES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH 3000-3500 J/KG. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS STRONG GIVEN
THE POSITION OF THE LOW LVL JET TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE SETUP...THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS DCAPES APPROACH AT OR ABOVE 1000
J/KG.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK AROUND 90 FOR MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...BUT SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH APPROACHING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT STRONGER CONVECTION WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO
GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN INCLUDED FOR 19Z-23Z WITH
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO 18Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT BEGINNING MID-
AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5
FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS/SEAS COULD VARY
WITHIN STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 031717
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
117 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS
ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE...IN THE FORM
OF A LINE AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED
FROM EARLIER MORNING CONVECTION. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500
J/KG ALONG WITH FORCING FROM A 30-40 KT LOW LVL JET DEPICTED ON THE
LATEST CHS SPECIAL SOUNDING...SHOULD FAVOR A ROUND OF ENHANCED
CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF LINE...AS CURRENTLY SEEN VIA RADAR IMAGERY
OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD
THE COAST FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENTER NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR/HELICITY AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG SFC HEATING WILL
CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS A RESULT...SBCAPES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH 3000-3500 J/KG. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS STRONG GIVEN
THE POSITION OF THE LOW LVL JET TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE SETUP...THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS DCAPES APPROACH AT OR ABOVE 1000
J/KG.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK AROUND 90 FOR MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...BUT SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH APPROACHING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT STRONGER CONVECTION WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO
GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN INCLUDED FOR 19Z-23Z WITH
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO 18Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT BEGINNING MID-
AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5
FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS/SEAS COULD VARY
WITHIN STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 031521
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1121 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

TODAY...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
REMAIN MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS
ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE...IN THE FORM
OF A LINE CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON RADAR IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA.

SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN IN REGARDS TO HOW WELL NORTHERN AREAS IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WILL REBOUND FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION
EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT AT LEAST
PARTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A 30-40 KT LOW
LVL JET SHIFTING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE GIVEN POCKETS OF SUN NOW REACHING THE SFC IN THE TRI-
COUNTY AREA. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH
FORCING FROM THE LOW LVL JET AND H5 SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY POSITIONED
TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST...SHOULD FAVOR A ROUND OF ENHANCED CONVECTION
IN THE FORM OF LINE...AS CURRENTLY SEEN VIA RADAR IMAGERY TO OUR
WEST. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENTER
NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN
AMPLE SHEAR/HELICITY AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS
WELL. FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY TO CLEAR SKIES. AS A RESULT...SBCAPES WILL LIKELY APPROACH
2000-3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS STRONG GIVEN THE
POSITION OF THE LOW LVL JET TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE SETUP...THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS DCAPES APPROACH AT OR ABOVE 1000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
COULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 16Z...THUS HAVE ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME AS STORMS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH THE TERMINAL. THEN...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT STRONGER CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FORECAST HAS A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20-24Z WITH FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
PRIMARILY REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL SO HAVE NO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED WITH EACH FORECAST
UPDATE AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WERE
TO OCCUR...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE 20-24Z TIME FRAME AND
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT BEGINNING MID-AFTERNOON FOR
CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...THEN
FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE TONIGHT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST
OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 031521
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1121 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

TODAY...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
REMAIN MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS
ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE...IN THE FORM
OF A LINE CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON RADAR IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA.

SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN IN REGARDS TO HOW WELL NORTHERN AREAS IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WILL REBOUND FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION
EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT AT LEAST
PARTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A 30-40 KT LOW
LVL JET SHIFTING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE GIVEN POCKETS OF SUN NOW REACHING THE SFC IN THE TRI-
COUNTY AREA. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH
FORCING FROM THE LOW LVL JET AND H5 SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY POSITIONED
TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST...SHOULD FAVOR A ROUND OF ENHANCED CONVECTION
IN THE FORM OF LINE...AS CURRENTLY SEEN VIA RADAR IMAGERY TO OUR
WEST. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENTER
NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN
AMPLE SHEAR/HELICITY AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS
WELL. FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY TO CLEAR SKIES. AS A RESULT...SBCAPES WILL LIKELY APPROACH
2000-3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS STRONG GIVEN THE
POSITION OF THE LOW LVL JET TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE SETUP...THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS DCAPES APPROACH AT OR ABOVE 1000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
COULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 16Z...THUS HAVE ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME AS STORMS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH THE TERMINAL. THEN...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT STRONGER CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FORECAST HAS A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20-24Z WITH FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
PRIMARILY REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL SO HAVE NO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED WITH EACH FORECAST
UPDATE AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WERE
TO OCCUR...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE 20-24Z TIME FRAME AND
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT BEGINNING MID-AFTERNOON FOR
CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...THEN
FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE TONIGHT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST
OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB




000
FXUS62 KFFC 031444 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1044 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UDPATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTH HALF OF GEORGIA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL INCREASING SOUTH OF I-20.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH
YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL PLUS THE 1 TO 3 INCHES THAT HAS FALLEN IN SPOTS
THIS MORNING...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

OTHER STORY IS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WHICH IS NOW FOCUSED SOUTH OF I-
20/I-85 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAD A PEAK WIND GUST OF 45 MPH
AT THE OFFICE /PEACHTREE CITY/ WHEN BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MOVED
THROUGH AROUND 10AM EDT. STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED (30-40KTS JUST OFF SFC)
ENVIRONMENT - PER FFC/ATL 12Z SOUNDING.

ADJUSTED QPF OVER NEXT 6-9 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR RAINFALL. NO OTHER
MAJOR CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH AND EASTERN GA. LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LOOKS
LIKE A WEAK WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS HELPING TO SPARK
SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WE SEE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITIES ARE
ALSO A BIT HIGH ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS TIME OF DAY. WE HAVE NOT
SEEN ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING BUT THE STORMS ARE PRODUCING A
LOT OF RAIN AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS WE
ARE IN A VERY MOIST PATTERN THOUGH THE WEEKEND. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WE CAN EXPECT A VERY DIURNAL DRIVEN PATTERN WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH GA. WE WILL SEE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BUT THE AXIS OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE STAYS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EVERY DAY SOME OF THEM MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SPC HAS ALL OF NORTH AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA IN A LIGHT RISK AREA TODAY WITH THE REST OF
CENTRAL GA IN A MARGINAL RISK. CURRENTLY DAYS 2 AND 3 ARE ONLY IN A
GENERAL RISK BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM UPGRADED TO AT
LEAST A MARGINAL RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GREATEST THREATS FROM
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
..LIGHTNING...HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE ABUNDANT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH... CURRENTLY
CAUSING SO MUCH UNSETTLED WEATHER... WEAKENING AND SHEARING
EASTWARD BY LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... A FAIRLY ACTIVE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION
ON TUESDAY. ALL THIS WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY MID WEAK... AND POSSIBLE REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
DESPITE ANY WEAK RIDGE INFLUENCE... THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD STILL BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE.
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL NORTH OF THE ATL AREA
TAF SITES BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE PRECIP BY 14-15Z. AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THROUGH OUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE W TO SW IN
THE 6-12KT RANGE. WILL SEE SOME WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
15KT RANGE GUSTING TO 25KT. CEILINGS SHOULD ALSO STAY VFR EXCEPT
IN AND AROUND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          87  69  87  71 /  80  50  50  40
ATLANTA         86  70  85  72 /  80  50  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     76  64  77  65 / 100  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    83  68  83  70 /  90  60  70  70
COLUMBUS        91  72  89  72 /  40  30  50  40
GAINESVILLE     82  68  82  70 /  90  60  60  50
MACON           92  71  92  71 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            83  69  83  70 / 100  70  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  70  86  71 /  80  40  50  40
VIDALIA         92  73  93  73 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...83
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 031444 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1044 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UDPATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTH HALF OF GEORGIA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL INCREASING SOUTH OF I-20.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH
YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL PLUS THE 1 TO 3 INCHES THAT HAS FALLEN IN SPOTS
THIS MORNING...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

OTHER STORY IS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WHICH IS NOW FOCUSED SOUTH OF I-
20/I-85 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAD A PEAK WIND GUST OF 45 MPH
AT THE OFFICE /PEACHTREE CITY/ WHEN BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MOVED
THROUGH AROUND 10AM EDT. STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED (30-40KTS JUST OFF SFC)
ENVIRONMENT - PER FFC/ATL 12Z SOUNDING.

ADJUSTED QPF OVER NEXT 6-9 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR RAINFALL. NO OTHER
MAJOR CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH AND EASTERN GA. LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LOOKS
LIKE A WEAK WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS HELPING TO SPARK
SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WE SEE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITIES ARE
ALSO A BIT HIGH ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS TIME OF DAY. WE HAVE NOT
SEEN ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING BUT THE STORMS ARE PRODUCING A
LOT OF RAIN AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS WE
ARE IN A VERY MOIST PATTERN THOUGH THE WEEKEND. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WE CAN EXPECT A VERY DIURNAL DRIVEN PATTERN WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH GA. WE WILL SEE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BUT THE AXIS OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE STAYS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EVERY DAY SOME OF THEM MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SPC HAS ALL OF NORTH AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA IN A LIGHT RISK AREA TODAY WITH THE REST OF
CENTRAL GA IN A MARGINAL RISK. CURRENTLY DAYS 2 AND 3 ARE ONLY IN A
GENERAL RISK BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM UPGRADED TO AT
LEAST A MARGINAL RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GREATEST THREATS FROM
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
..LIGHTNING...HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE ABUNDANT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH... CURRENTLY
CAUSING SO MUCH UNSETTLED WEATHER... WEAKENING AND SHEARING
EASTWARD BY LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... A FAIRLY ACTIVE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION
ON TUESDAY. ALL THIS WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY MID WEAK... AND POSSIBLE REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
DESPITE ANY WEAK RIDGE INFLUENCE... THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD STILL BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE.
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL NORTH OF THE ATL AREA
TAF SITES BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE PRECIP BY 14-15Z. AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THROUGH OUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE W TO SW IN
THE 6-12KT RANGE. WILL SEE SOME WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
15KT RANGE GUSTING TO 25KT. CEILINGS SHOULD ALSO STAY VFR EXCEPT
IN AND AROUND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          87  69  87  71 /  80  50  50  40
ATLANTA         86  70  85  72 /  80  50  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     76  64  77  65 / 100  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    83  68  83  70 /  90  60  70  70
COLUMBUS        91  72  89  72 /  40  30  50  40
GAINESVILLE     82  68  82  70 /  90  60  60  50
MACON           92  71  92  71 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            83  69  83  70 / 100  70  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  70  86  71 /  80  40  50  40
VIDALIA         92  73  93  73 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...83
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 031444 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1044 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UDPATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTH HALF OF GEORGIA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL INCREASING SOUTH OF I-20.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH
YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL PLUS THE 1 TO 3 INCHES THAT HAS FALLEN IN SPOTS
THIS MORNING...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

OTHER STORY IS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WHICH IS NOW FOCUSED SOUTH OF I-
20/I-85 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAD A PEAK WIND GUST OF 45 MPH
AT THE OFFICE /PEACHTREE CITY/ WHEN BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MOVED
THROUGH AROUND 10AM EDT. STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED (30-40KTS JUST OFF SFC)
ENVIRONMENT - PER FFC/ATL 12Z SOUNDING.

ADJUSTED QPF OVER NEXT 6-9 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR RAINFALL. NO OTHER
MAJOR CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH AND EASTERN GA. LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LOOKS
LIKE A WEAK WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS HELPING TO SPARK
SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WE SEE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITIES ARE
ALSO A BIT HIGH ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS TIME OF DAY. WE HAVE NOT
SEEN ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING BUT THE STORMS ARE PRODUCING A
LOT OF RAIN AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS WE
ARE IN A VERY MOIST PATTERN THOUGH THE WEEKEND. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WE CAN EXPECT A VERY DIURNAL DRIVEN PATTERN WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH GA. WE WILL SEE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BUT THE AXIS OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE STAYS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EVERY DAY SOME OF THEM MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SPC HAS ALL OF NORTH AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA IN A LIGHT RISK AREA TODAY WITH THE REST OF
CENTRAL GA IN A MARGINAL RISK. CURRENTLY DAYS 2 AND 3 ARE ONLY IN A
GENERAL RISK BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM UPGRADED TO AT
LEAST A MARGINAL RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GREATEST THREATS FROM
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
..LIGHTNING...HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE ABUNDANT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH... CURRENTLY
CAUSING SO MUCH UNSETTLED WEATHER... WEAKENING AND SHEARING
EASTWARD BY LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... A FAIRLY ACTIVE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION
ON TUESDAY. ALL THIS WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY MID WEAK... AND POSSIBLE REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
DESPITE ANY WEAK RIDGE INFLUENCE... THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD STILL BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE.
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL NORTH OF THE ATL AREA
TAF SITES BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE PRECIP BY 14-15Z. AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THROUGH OUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE W TO SW IN
THE 6-12KT RANGE. WILL SEE SOME WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
15KT RANGE GUSTING TO 25KT. CEILINGS SHOULD ALSO STAY VFR EXCEPT
IN AND AROUND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          87  69  87  71 /  80  50  50  40
ATLANTA         86  70  85  72 /  80  50  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     76  64  77  65 / 100  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    83  68  83  70 /  90  60  70  70
COLUMBUS        91  72  89  72 /  40  30  50  40
GAINESVILLE     82  68  82  70 /  90  60  60  50
MACON           92  71  92  71 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            83  69  83  70 / 100  70  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  70  86  71 /  80  40  50  40
VIDALIA         92  73  93  73 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...83
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KCAE 031407
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1007 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT A TRAINING RADAR PATTERN WAS SETTING UP WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUSTAINED BY THE STRONG H85 JET. THE ANALYSIS
SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST OVER 2 INCHES. WE HAVE POSTED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR TODAY.

THE LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN APPROACHING THE CSRA AND SOUTH
MIDLANDS FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING INDICATES SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG. THE
ANALYSIS SHOWED H85 WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED ON THIS SHEAR COMBINED
WITH SURFACE- BASED LI/S LIKELY LOWERING TO -4 TO -6 IN THE SOUTH
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS TONIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND.  MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH
TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD
PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE TAF
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H85 JET. OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. VERY STRONG
WIND MAY MIX DOWN DURING SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ018-020-
     025>028-030-031-035>038-041.
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.

&&

$$
99



000
FXUS62 KCAE 031407
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1007 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT A TRAINING RADAR PATTERN WAS SETTING UP WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUSTAINED BY THE STRONG H85 JET. THE ANALYSIS
SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST OVER 2 INCHES. WE HAVE POSTED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR TODAY.

THE LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN APPROACHING THE CSRA AND SOUTH
MIDLANDS FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING INDICATES SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG. THE
ANALYSIS SHOWED H85 WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED ON THIS SHEAR COMBINED
WITH SURFACE- BASED LI/S LIKELY LOWERING TO -4 TO -6 IN THE SOUTH
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS TONIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND.  MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH
TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD
PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE TAF
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H85 JET. OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. VERY STRONG
WIND MAY MIX DOWN DURING SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ018-020-
     025>028-030-031-035>038-041.
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031153
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
753 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

THIS MORNING...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS GENERATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MAINLY SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CHANCE TO
LIKELY CATEGORY IN THE AFFECTED AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE STORMS
MOVING THROUGH. THESE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SEVERE
GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THE ATMOSPHERE HAVING BEEN
SUFFICIENTLY WORKED OVER WITH LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...SPARKING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAINLY
NORTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR. HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH
AS THE HRRR AND NSSL-WRF INDICATE THIS CONVECTION ORGANIZING INTO
ANOTHER MCS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THE FORECAST INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY FROM COLLETON COUNTY NORTH...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SOUTHWARD TO I-16...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH TO THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER.

MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING GIVEN SOME
DIURNAL HEATING...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES RISING
POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 2500-3000 J/KG. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN IMPRESSIVE
WIND FIELDS ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE ALSO EXPECTED. ANY BACKING
OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED TORNADO...BUT
THE TREAT IS VERY LOW. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN A SLIGHT RISK...WITH A MARGINAL RISK
DOWN TO I-16...WHICH SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THIS SETUP.

DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS BEFORE THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVES IN. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING RATHER GUSTY AT TIMES.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
COULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 16Z...THUS HAVE ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME AS STORMS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH THE TERMINAL. THEN...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT STRONGER CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FORECAST HAS A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20-24Z WITH FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
PRIMARILY REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL SO HAVE NO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED WITH EACH FORECAST
UPDATE AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WERE
TO OCCUR...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE 20-24Z TIME FRAME AND
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLANTIC. UNUSUALLY STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT COMBINED
WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED BEGINNING MID-AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN
THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 031153
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
753 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

THIS MORNING...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS GENERATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MAINLY SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CHANCE TO
LIKELY CATEGORY IN THE AFFECTED AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE STORMS
MOVING THROUGH. THESE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SEVERE
GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THE ATMOSPHERE HAVING BEEN
SUFFICIENTLY WORKED OVER WITH LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...SPARKING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAINLY
NORTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR. HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH
AS THE HRRR AND NSSL-WRF INDICATE THIS CONVECTION ORGANIZING INTO
ANOTHER MCS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THE FORECAST INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY FROM COLLETON COUNTY NORTH...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SOUTHWARD TO I-16...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH TO THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER.

MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING GIVEN SOME
DIURNAL HEATING...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES RISING
POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 2500-3000 J/KG. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN IMPRESSIVE
WIND FIELDS ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE ALSO EXPECTED. ANY BACKING
OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED TORNADO...BUT
THE TREAT IS VERY LOW. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN A SLIGHT RISK...WITH A MARGINAL RISK
DOWN TO I-16...WHICH SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THIS SETUP.

DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS BEFORE THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVES IN. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING RATHER GUSTY AT TIMES.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
COULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 16Z...THUS HAVE ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME AS STORMS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH THE TERMINAL. THEN...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT STRONGER CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FORECAST HAS A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20-24Z WITH FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
PRIMARILY REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL SO HAVE NO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED WITH EACH FORECAST
UPDATE AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WERE
TO OCCUR...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE 20-24Z TIME FRAME AND
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLANTIC. UNUSUALLY STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT COMBINED
WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED BEGINNING MID-AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN
THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 031153
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
753 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

THIS MORNING...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS GENERATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MAINLY SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CHANCE TO
LIKELY CATEGORY IN THE AFFECTED AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE STORMS
MOVING THROUGH. THESE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SEVERE
GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THE ATMOSPHERE HAVING BEEN
SUFFICIENTLY WORKED OVER WITH LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...SPARKING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAINLY
NORTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR. HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH
AS THE HRRR AND NSSL-WRF INDICATE THIS CONVECTION ORGANIZING INTO
ANOTHER MCS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THE FORECAST INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY FROM COLLETON COUNTY NORTH...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SOUTHWARD TO I-16...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH TO THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER.

MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING GIVEN SOME
DIURNAL HEATING...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES RISING
POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 2500-3000 J/KG. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN IMPRESSIVE
WIND FIELDS ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE ALSO EXPECTED. ANY BACKING
OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED TORNADO...BUT
THE TREAT IS VERY LOW. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN A SLIGHT RISK...WITH A MARGINAL RISK
DOWN TO I-16...WHICH SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THIS SETUP.

DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS BEFORE THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVES IN. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING RATHER GUSTY AT TIMES.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
COULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 16Z...THUS HAVE ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME AS STORMS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH THE TERMINAL. THEN...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT STRONGER CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FORECAST HAS A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20-24Z WITH FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
PRIMARILY REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL SO HAVE NO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED WITH EACH FORECAST
UPDATE AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WERE
TO OCCUR...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE 20-24Z TIME FRAME AND
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLANTIC. UNUSUALLY STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT COMBINED
WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED BEGINNING MID-AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN
THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB




000
FXUS62 KFFC 031147
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
747 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH AND EASTERN GA. LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LOOKS
LIKE A WEAK WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS HELPING TO SPARK
SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WE SEE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITIES ARE
ALSO A BIT HIGH ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS TIME OF DAY. WE HAVE NOT
SEEN ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING BUT THE STORMS ARE PRODUCING A
LOT OF RAIN AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS WE
ARE IN A VERY MOIST PATTERN THOUGH THE WEEKEND. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WE CAN EXPECT A VERY DIURNAL DRIVEN PATTERN WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH GA. WE WILL SEE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BUT THE AXIS OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE STAYS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EVERY DAY SOME OF THEM MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SPC HAS ALL OF NORTH AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA IN A LIGHT RISK AREA TODAY WITH THE REST OF
CENTRAL GA IN A MARGINAL RISK. CURRENTLY DAYS 2 AND 3 ARE ONLY IN A
GENERAL RISK BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM UPGRADED TO AT
LEAST A MARGINAL RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GREATEST THREATS FROM
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
..LIGHTNING...HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE ABUNDANT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH... CURRENTLY
CAUSING SO MUCH UNSETTLED WEATHER... WEAKENING AND SHEARING
EASTWARD BY LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... A FAIRLY ACTIVE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION
ON TUESDAY. ALL THIS WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY MID WEAK... AND POSSIBLE REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
DESPITE ANY WEAK RIDGE INFLUENCE... THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD STILL BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE.
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL NORTH OF THE ATL AREA
TAF SITES BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE PRECIP BY 14-15Z. AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THROUGH OUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE W TO SW IN
THE 6-12KT RANGE. WILL SEE SOME WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
15KT RANGE GUSTING TO 25KT. CEILINGS SHOULD ALSO STAY VFR EXCEPT
IN AND AROUND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          87  69  87  71 /  80  50  50  40
ATLANTA         86  70  85  72 /  80  50  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     76  64  77  65 / 100  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    83  68  83  70 /  90  60  70  70
COLUMBUS        91  72  89  72 /  40  30  50  40
GAINESVILLE     82  68  82  70 /  90  60  60  50
MACON           92  71  92  71 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            83  69  83  70 / 100  70  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  70  86  71 /  80  40  50  40
VIDALIA         92  73  93  73 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 031147
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
747 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH AND EASTERN GA. LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LOOKS
LIKE A WEAK WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS HELPING TO SPARK
SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WE SEE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITIES ARE
ALSO A BIT HIGH ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS TIME OF DAY. WE HAVE NOT
SEEN ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING BUT THE STORMS ARE PRODUCING A
LOT OF RAIN AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS WE
ARE IN A VERY MOIST PATTERN THOUGH THE WEEKEND. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WE CAN EXPECT A VERY DIURNAL DRIVEN PATTERN WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH GA. WE WILL SEE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BUT THE AXIS OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE STAYS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EVERY DAY SOME OF THEM MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SPC HAS ALL OF NORTH AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA IN A LIGHT RISK AREA TODAY WITH THE REST OF
CENTRAL GA IN A MARGINAL RISK. CURRENTLY DAYS 2 AND 3 ARE ONLY IN A
GENERAL RISK BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM UPGRADED TO AT
LEAST A MARGINAL RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GREATEST THREATS FROM
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
..LIGHTNING...HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE ABUNDANT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH... CURRENTLY
CAUSING SO MUCH UNSETTLED WEATHER... WEAKENING AND SHEARING
EASTWARD BY LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... A FAIRLY ACTIVE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION
ON TUESDAY. ALL THIS WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY MID WEAK... AND POSSIBLE REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
DESPITE ANY WEAK RIDGE INFLUENCE... THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD STILL BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE.
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL NORTH OF THE ATL AREA
TAF SITES BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE PRECIP BY 14-15Z. AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THROUGH OUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE W TO SW IN
THE 6-12KT RANGE. WILL SEE SOME WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
15KT RANGE GUSTING TO 25KT. CEILINGS SHOULD ALSO STAY VFR EXCEPT
IN AND AROUND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          87  69  87  71 /  80  50  50  40
ATLANTA         86  70  85  72 /  80  50  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     76  64  77  65 / 100  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    83  68  83  70 /  90  60  70  70
COLUMBUS        91  72  89  72 /  40  30  50  40
GAINESVILLE     82  68  82  70 /  90  60  60  50
MACON           92  71  92  71 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            83  69  83  70 / 100  70  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  70  86  71 /  80  40  50  40
VIDALIA         92  73  93  73 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 031147
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
747 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH AND EASTERN GA. LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LOOKS
LIKE A WEAK WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS HELPING TO SPARK
SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WE SEE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITIES ARE
ALSO A BIT HIGH ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS TIME OF DAY. WE HAVE NOT
SEEN ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING BUT THE STORMS ARE PRODUCING A
LOT OF RAIN AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS WE
ARE IN A VERY MOIST PATTERN THOUGH THE WEEKEND. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WE CAN EXPECT A VERY DIURNAL DRIVEN PATTERN WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH GA. WE WILL SEE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BUT THE AXIS OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE STAYS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EVERY DAY SOME OF THEM MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SPC HAS ALL OF NORTH AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA IN A LIGHT RISK AREA TODAY WITH THE REST OF
CENTRAL GA IN A MARGINAL RISK. CURRENTLY DAYS 2 AND 3 ARE ONLY IN A
GENERAL RISK BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM UPGRADED TO AT
LEAST A MARGINAL RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GREATEST THREATS FROM
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
..LIGHTNING...HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE ABUNDANT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH... CURRENTLY
CAUSING SO MUCH UNSETTLED WEATHER... WEAKENING AND SHEARING
EASTWARD BY LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... A FAIRLY ACTIVE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION
ON TUESDAY. ALL THIS WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY MID WEAK... AND POSSIBLE REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
DESPITE ANY WEAK RIDGE INFLUENCE... THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD STILL BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE.
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL NORTH OF THE ATL AREA
TAF SITES BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE PRECIP BY 14-15Z. AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THROUGH OUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE W TO SW IN
THE 6-12KT RANGE. WILL SEE SOME WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
15KT RANGE GUSTING TO 25KT. CEILINGS SHOULD ALSO STAY VFR EXCEPT
IN AND AROUND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          87  69  87  71 /  80  50  50  40
ATLANTA         86  70  85  72 /  80  50  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     76  64  77  65 / 100  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    83  68  83  70 /  90  60  70  70
COLUMBUS        91  72  89  72 /  40  30  50  40
GAINESVILLE     82  68  82  70 /  90  60  60  50
MACON           92  71  92  71 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            83  69  83  70 / 100  70  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  70  86  71 /  80  40  50  40
VIDALIA         92  73  93  73 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 031147
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
747 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH AND EASTERN GA. LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LOOKS
LIKE A WEAK WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS HELPING TO SPARK
SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WE SEE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITIES ARE
ALSO A BIT HIGH ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS TIME OF DAY. WE HAVE NOT
SEEN ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING BUT THE STORMS ARE PRODUCING A
LOT OF RAIN AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS WE
ARE IN A VERY MOIST PATTERN THOUGH THE WEEKEND. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WE CAN EXPECT A VERY DIURNAL DRIVEN PATTERN WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH GA. WE WILL SEE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BUT THE AXIS OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE STAYS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EVERY DAY SOME OF THEM MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SPC HAS ALL OF NORTH AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA IN A LIGHT RISK AREA TODAY WITH THE REST OF
CENTRAL GA IN A MARGINAL RISK. CURRENTLY DAYS 2 AND 3 ARE ONLY IN A
GENERAL RISK BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM UPGRADED TO AT
LEAST A MARGINAL RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GREATEST THREATS FROM
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
..LIGHTNING...HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE ABUNDANT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH... CURRENTLY
CAUSING SO MUCH UNSETTLED WEATHER... WEAKENING AND SHEARING
EASTWARD BY LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... A FAIRLY ACTIVE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION
ON TUESDAY. ALL THIS WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY MID WEAK... AND POSSIBLE REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
DESPITE ANY WEAK RIDGE INFLUENCE... THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD STILL BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE.
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL NORTH OF THE ATL AREA
TAF SITES BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE PRECIP BY 14-15Z. AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THROUGH OUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE W TO SW IN
THE 6-12KT RANGE. WILL SEE SOME WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
15KT RANGE GUSTING TO 25KT. CEILINGS SHOULD ALSO STAY VFR EXCEPT
IN AND AROUND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          87  69  87  71 /  80  50  50  40
ATLANTA         86  70  85  72 /  80  50  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     76  64  77  65 / 100  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    83  68  83  70 /  90  60  70  70
COLUMBUS        91  72  89  72 /  40  30  50  40
GAINESVILLE     82  68  82  70 /  90  60  60  50
MACON           92  71  92  71 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            83  69  83  70 / 100  70  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  70  86  71 /  80  40  50  40
VIDALIA         92  73  93  73 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KCAE 031031
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
631 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. SATPIX
SHOW WEAK S/WV MOVING THROUGH UPSTATE...CSRA...AND INTO MIDLANDS
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. EXPECT THESE TO PUSH TO THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS THROUGH THE MORNING.

ANOTHER S/WV AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BE SEVERE WITH MAINLY STRONG WINDS. EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTING 15 TO 25MPH BY LATE MORNING WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS TONIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND.  MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH
TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD
PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS
OUTSIDE OF RAIN ACTIVITY AT ALL SITES UNTIL AROUND 14Z THEN
BECOMING VFR. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSTMS EXPECTED MAINLY
BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z TODAY. SURFACE WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 25MPH LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND SHORT WAVE
MOVE THROUGH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD SEE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POSSIBILITY OF EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT ALL
FORECAST AREA TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



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