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000
FXUS62 KCHS 210947
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
447 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...DAMP AND COOL WEATHER OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS SE
GEORGIA SEEING LIGHT RAINS WITH ALL LOCATIONS UNDER FULL CLOUD COVER
AND SOME PERIODIC SPRINKLES. TEMPS HAVE BEEN IN THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE
OVERNIGHT. WEAK UPPER FORCING WAS NOTED ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE BROAD
ENTRANCE JET ENTRANCE REGION BELOW THE PATH OF A 135 KT UPPER JET
FROM UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE WESTERN ATLC EAST OF THE OUTER
BANKS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 295K PRES SURFACE WAS INCREASING
OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOW LIGHT RAIN INCREASING.
WE HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS GOING TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 WITH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE KEPT SOME PATCHY FOG
MENTIONS BUT STRATUS LAYERS COULD BUILD DOWN OVER INLAND GEORGIA
ZONES NEAR DAYBREAK. WITH THE BEHAVIOR OF THE STRATUS AT 4 AM...WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.

OUR DAMP AND COOL FORECAST ON TRACK THROUGH TONIGHT...THE CHANGES
WE MADE THIS MORNING WERE TO MAKE IT A BIT COOLER AND EVEN DAMPER
IN SOME LOCATIONS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AND
EXPAND OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING...THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS TODAY WHILE THE AXIS OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED FROM NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE GULF STREAM TO OUR
EAST. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE GRIPS OF AN ANCHORED
SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN WHICH WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN UNDER PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAINS AND A NOSE OF WARMING TEMPS AT 925 MB. WE LOWERED
TEMPS TODAY ACROSS THE BOARD GIVEN OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
AN EMPHATICALLY COOLER SURFACE TEMP TREND PROGGED BY MANY OF THE
00Z MODELS. SOME AREAS INLAND MAY STRUGGLE TO HIT 50 DEGREES TODAY
TO THE NORTH OF I-16...WHILE RAINS HOLD TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S IN AREAS SUCH AS DARIEN AND LUDOWICI GEORGIA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE MANY AREAS WILL
SEE MEASURABLE LIGHT RAINS TODAY WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE
SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO LOWER CONDENSATION
PRES DEFICITS AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELDS. POPS AVERAGE OUT IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY TODAY...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ONCE
AGAIN.

TONIGHT...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL EXPAND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER
SHORT WAVES RIDE NE ALONG THE COOL SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD NUDGE THE
COASTAL FRONT WELL OFFSHORE JUST A BIT CLOSER IN...BUT THE WEDGE
WILL REMAIN STRONG AND INTACT ALL AREAS. 1/2 INCH OR LOCALLY
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL SE GEORGIA...
OTHERWISE AMOUNTS MAINLY 1/4 INCH OR LESS TONIGHT. WE LOWERED LOW
TEMPS A BIT WITH THE COOL AIR TRAPPED BELOW THE WARM ADVECTION.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CONCERN FOR FOG TONIGHT AS STRATUS COULD
BUILD DOWN AND TANK LOCAL VSBYS. THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN IS
INLAND SE GEORGIA AND LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED SOME STRONGER FOG
MENTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START THE MORNING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. A
SOMEWHAT LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHILE GREATEST LIFTING SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TEMPORARILY AND A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS HOLD INLAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE DURING THE PERIOD...HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE...BUT SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND
TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE COAST IN
SOUTH CAROLINA.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON
POPS TO START OFF MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOW AND INCREASING TREND
THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE ADVECTS TO THE AREA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POSITIONED WELL THE OUR WEST. HAVE INTRODUCED
CATEGORICAL POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COASTAL FRONT STRUGGLES
TO LIFT NORTH AGAINST THE PERSISTENT WEDGE INLAND. FOR THIS
REASON...DID NOT EXPAND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR
INTERIOR COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SBCAPES NEAR 800 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST
MID LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS SEVERAL H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS DIGGING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE
COASTAL FRONT LIFTING NORTH. AT THIS TIME HAVE STAYED SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S INLAND TO MID AND
UPPER 60S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST TUESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR OFFSHORE...BUT DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY
PWATS NEAR 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES SHOULD MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE FORCING INCREASES FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY
NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITHIN A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH LOWS ONLY DIPPING INTO THE MID 50S
INLAND TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD/ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW
EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE DAY SHOULD BRING ABOUT AN INCH OF PRECIP ACCUMULATION OVER MOST
AREAS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. STRONG LOW LVL WINDS ALSO SUGGEST
THAT WINDS COULD BE GUSTY WITH SOME MIXING. MODELS INSIST ON WARMING
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL HEATING
POTENTIAL. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE...IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WIND
CONDITIONS FOR PART OF THE NIGHT BEFORE ENHANCED WIND FIELDS SLIDE
OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY DRY OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND
THE DEPARTING FRONT AND PERSISTS INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ON THURSDAY...IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S...BEFORE SLIGHTLY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER A SOMEWHAT
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH SMALL CHANCES OF LIFR
CIGS OR LOW END MVFR CIGS ON EITHER END. A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND EVEN SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE. LATEST SOUNDINGS AT KSAV SHOW
IFR CIGS MAY REMAIN LOCKED IN THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS RAINFALL
APPEARS LIKELY AND THE WEDGE INVERSION QUITE STRONG. AT KCHS...
MODELS SHOW A DECENT CHANCE THAT CIGS LIFT INTO LOW END MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING TO IFR AGAIN LATE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIMING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AT EITHER TERMINAL IS VERY DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LLWS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER
WIND FIELDS SHIFT OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NAM AND IT/S LOCAL VARIATION WERE USED TO HANDLE A VERY TRICKY
MARINE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS PINCHING GRADIENT INITIALLY EXTENDING
ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF OUR NEAR SHORE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS
SOUTH INTO THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. OVERNIGHT WE RAISED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GEORGIA WATERS 20-60 NM AS GRAYS REEF HAS BEEN
REPORTING A SOLID 19-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT.

AT SOME POINT TODAY WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY WITHIN 20
NM OF THE COAST BUT IT LOOKS FAIRLY MARGINAL WITH 15-20 KT NE WINDS
AND 4-5 FT COVERING THE SITUATION FOR THE MOST PART. TONIGHT AS
THE COASTAL FRONT TILTS NORTH WHILE A LOW PRES WAVE RIDES THE GULF
STREAM...THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN THIS EVENING ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COAST BUT EVENTUALLY WEAKEN ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT. MODEL PROGS
SUGGEST IF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED BY
THIS EVENING....CHANCES ARE DECENT FOR SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED WINDS
AND SEAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER VSBYS AT TIMES
TONIGHT IN RAIN AND FOG OVER THE WATERS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND WHILE
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. IN GENERAL...WINDS
SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 15-20 KT WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN
1-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER GEORGIA WATER.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE AS A COASTAL FRONT LIFTS NORTH WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MOST WATERS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WHILE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE/BUILD WITHIN A SOUTHERLY
FLOW. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH/WARNING COULD EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GUST TO
30-35 KT AWAY FROM THE COAST. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 5-8
FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING
LATE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY OVER ALL WATERS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD LOWER BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
WATERS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH
LATE WEEK.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES MONDAY...BUT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEA FOG COULD DEVELOP AS WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP
MID/UPPER 50 SHELF WATER TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY PRIOR TO WINDS
INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THIS MORNING/S HIGH TIDE AROUND 7 AM AT DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON MAY
APPROACH 7 FT MLLW BUT AN ADVISORY IS UNLIKELY AND ANY RAINFALL
AROUND AT THAT TIME WILL BE LIGHT OR JUST SPRINKLES.

GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY THIS WEEK...THERE IS AN
INCREASING RISK FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. THIS SITUATION MIGHT BE
FURTHER EXACERBATED DUE TO STEADY RAINS PRIOR TO AND DURING THE
HIGH TIDAL CYCLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 210947
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
447 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...DAMP AND COOL WEATHER OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS SE
GEORGIA SEEING LIGHT RAINS WITH ALL LOCATIONS UNDER FULL CLOUD COVER
AND SOME PERIODIC SPRINKLES. TEMPS HAVE BEEN IN THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE
OVERNIGHT. WEAK UPPER FORCING WAS NOTED ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE BROAD
ENTRANCE JET ENTRANCE REGION BELOW THE PATH OF A 135 KT UPPER JET
FROM UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE WESTERN ATLC EAST OF THE OUTER
BANKS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 295K PRES SURFACE WAS INCREASING
OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOW LIGHT RAIN INCREASING.
WE HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS GOING TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 WITH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE KEPT SOME PATCHY FOG
MENTIONS BUT STRATUS LAYERS COULD BUILD DOWN OVER INLAND GEORGIA
ZONES NEAR DAYBREAK. WITH THE BEHAVIOR OF THE STRATUS AT 4 AM...WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.

OUR DAMP AND COOL FORECAST ON TRACK THROUGH TONIGHT...THE CHANGES
WE MADE THIS MORNING WERE TO MAKE IT A BIT COOLER AND EVEN DAMPER
IN SOME LOCATIONS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AND
EXPAND OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING...THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS TODAY WHILE THE AXIS OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED FROM NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE GULF STREAM TO OUR
EAST. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE GRIPS OF AN ANCHORED
SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN WHICH WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN UNDER PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAINS AND A NOSE OF WARMING TEMPS AT 925 MB. WE LOWERED
TEMPS TODAY ACROSS THE BOARD GIVEN OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
AN EMPHATICALLY COOLER SURFACE TEMP TREND PROGGED BY MANY OF THE
00Z MODELS. SOME AREAS INLAND MAY STRUGGLE TO HIT 50 DEGREES TODAY
TO THE NORTH OF I-16...WHILE RAINS HOLD TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S IN AREAS SUCH AS DARIEN AND LUDOWICI GEORGIA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE MANY AREAS WILL
SEE MEASURABLE LIGHT RAINS TODAY WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE
SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO LOWER CONDENSATION
PRES DEFICITS AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELDS. POPS AVERAGE OUT IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY TODAY...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ONCE
AGAIN.

TONIGHT...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL EXPAND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER
SHORT WAVES RIDE NE ALONG THE COOL SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD NUDGE THE
COASTAL FRONT WELL OFFSHORE JUST A BIT CLOSER IN...BUT THE WEDGE
WILL REMAIN STRONG AND INTACT ALL AREAS. 1/2 INCH OR LOCALLY
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL SE GEORGIA...
OTHERWISE AMOUNTS MAINLY 1/4 INCH OR LESS TONIGHT. WE LOWERED LOW
TEMPS A BIT WITH THE COOL AIR TRAPPED BELOW THE WARM ADVECTION.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CONCERN FOR FOG TONIGHT AS STRATUS COULD
BUILD DOWN AND TANK LOCAL VSBYS. THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN IS
INLAND SE GEORGIA AND LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED SOME STRONGER FOG
MENTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START THE MORNING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. A
SOMEWHAT LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHILE GREATEST LIFTING SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TEMPORARILY AND A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS HOLD INLAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE DURING THE PERIOD...HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE...BUT SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND
TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE COAST IN
SOUTH CAROLINA.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON
POPS TO START OFF MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOW AND INCREASING TREND
THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE ADVECTS TO THE AREA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POSITIONED WELL THE OUR WEST. HAVE INTRODUCED
CATEGORICAL POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COASTAL FRONT STRUGGLES
TO LIFT NORTH AGAINST THE PERSISTENT WEDGE INLAND. FOR THIS
REASON...DID NOT EXPAND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR
INTERIOR COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SBCAPES NEAR 800 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST
MID LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS SEVERAL H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS DIGGING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE
COASTAL FRONT LIFTING NORTH. AT THIS TIME HAVE STAYED SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S INLAND TO MID AND
UPPER 60S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST TUESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR OFFSHORE...BUT DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY
PWATS NEAR 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES SHOULD MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE FORCING INCREASES FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY
NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITHIN A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH LOWS ONLY DIPPING INTO THE MID 50S
INLAND TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD/ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW
EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE DAY SHOULD BRING ABOUT AN INCH OF PRECIP ACCUMULATION OVER MOST
AREAS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. STRONG LOW LVL WINDS ALSO SUGGEST
THAT WINDS COULD BE GUSTY WITH SOME MIXING. MODELS INSIST ON WARMING
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL HEATING
POTENTIAL. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE...IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WIND
CONDITIONS FOR PART OF THE NIGHT BEFORE ENHANCED WIND FIELDS SLIDE
OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY DRY OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND
THE DEPARTING FRONT AND PERSISTS INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ON THURSDAY...IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S...BEFORE SLIGHTLY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER A SOMEWHAT
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH SMALL CHANCES OF LIFR
CIGS OR LOW END MVFR CIGS ON EITHER END. A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND EVEN SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE. LATEST SOUNDINGS AT KSAV SHOW
IFR CIGS MAY REMAIN LOCKED IN THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS RAINFALL
APPEARS LIKELY AND THE WEDGE INVERSION QUITE STRONG. AT KCHS...
MODELS SHOW A DECENT CHANCE THAT CIGS LIFT INTO LOW END MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING TO IFR AGAIN LATE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIMING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AT EITHER TERMINAL IS VERY DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LLWS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER
WIND FIELDS SHIFT OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NAM AND IT/S LOCAL VARIATION WERE USED TO HANDLE A VERY TRICKY
MARINE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS PINCHING GRADIENT INITIALLY EXTENDING
ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF OUR NEAR SHORE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS
SOUTH INTO THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. OVERNIGHT WE RAISED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GEORGIA WATERS 20-60 NM AS GRAYS REEF HAS BEEN
REPORTING A SOLID 19-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT.

AT SOME POINT TODAY WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY WITHIN 20
NM OF THE COAST BUT IT LOOKS FAIRLY MARGINAL WITH 15-20 KT NE WINDS
AND 4-5 FT COVERING THE SITUATION FOR THE MOST PART. TONIGHT AS
THE COASTAL FRONT TILTS NORTH WHILE A LOW PRES WAVE RIDES THE GULF
STREAM...THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN THIS EVENING ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COAST BUT EVENTUALLY WEAKEN ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT. MODEL PROGS
SUGGEST IF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED BY
THIS EVENING....CHANCES ARE DECENT FOR SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED WINDS
AND SEAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER VSBYS AT TIMES
TONIGHT IN RAIN AND FOG OVER THE WATERS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND WHILE
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. IN GENERAL...WINDS
SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 15-20 KT WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN
1-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER GEORGIA WATER.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE AS A COASTAL FRONT LIFTS NORTH WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MOST WATERS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WHILE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE/BUILD WITHIN A SOUTHERLY
FLOW. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH/WARNING COULD EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GUST TO
30-35 KT AWAY FROM THE COAST. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 5-8
FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING
LATE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY OVER ALL WATERS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD LOWER BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
WATERS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH
LATE WEEK.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES MONDAY...BUT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEA FOG COULD DEVELOP AS WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP
MID/UPPER 50 SHELF WATER TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY PRIOR TO WINDS
INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THIS MORNING/S HIGH TIDE AROUND 7 AM AT DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON MAY
APPROACH 7 FT MLLW BUT AN ADVISORY IS UNLIKELY AND ANY RAINFALL
AROUND AT THAT TIME WILL BE LIGHT OR JUST SPRINKLES.

GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY THIS WEEK...THERE IS AN
INCREASING RISK FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. THIS SITUATION MIGHT BE
FURTHER EXACERBATED DUE TO STEADY RAINS PRIOR TO AND DURING THE
HIGH TIDAL CYCLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 210947
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
447 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...DAMP AND COOL WEATHER OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS SE
GEORGIA SEEING LIGHT RAINS WITH ALL LOCATIONS UNDER FULL CLOUD COVER
AND SOME PERIODIC SPRINKLES. TEMPS HAVE BEEN IN THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE
OVERNIGHT. WEAK UPPER FORCING WAS NOTED ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE BROAD
ENTRANCE JET ENTRANCE REGION BELOW THE PATH OF A 135 KT UPPER JET
FROM UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE WESTERN ATLC EAST OF THE OUTER
BANKS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 295K PRES SURFACE WAS INCREASING
OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOW LIGHT RAIN INCREASING.
WE HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS GOING TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 WITH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE KEPT SOME PATCHY FOG
MENTIONS BUT STRATUS LAYERS COULD BUILD DOWN OVER INLAND GEORGIA
ZONES NEAR DAYBREAK. WITH THE BEHAVIOR OF THE STRATUS AT 4 AM...WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.

OUR DAMP AND COOL FORECAST ON TRACK THROUGH TONIGHT...THE CHANGES
WE MADE THIS MORNING WERE TO MAKE IT A BIT COOLER AND EVEN DAMPER
IN SOME LOCATIONS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AND
EXPAND OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING...THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS TODAY WHILE THE AXIS OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED FROM NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE GULF STREAM TO OUR
EAST. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE GRIPS OF AN ANCHORED
SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN WHICH WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN UNDER PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAINS AND A NOSE OF WARMING TEMPS AT 925 MB. WE LOWERED
TEMPS TODAY ACROSS THE BOARD GIVEN OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
AN EMPHATICALLY COOLER SURFACE TEMP TREND PROGGED BY MANY OF THE
00Z MODELS. SOME AREAS INLAND MAY STRUGGLE TO HIT 50 DEGREES TODAY
TO THE NORTH OF I-16...WHILE RAINS HOLD TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S IN AREAS SUCH AS DARIEN AND LUDOWICI GEORGIA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE MANY AREAS WILL
SEE MEASURABLE LIGHT RAINS TODAY WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE
SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO LOWER CONDENSATION
PRES DEFICITS AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELDS. POPS AVERAGE OUT IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY TODAY...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ONCE
AGAIN.

TONIGHT...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL EXPAND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER
SHORT WAVES RIDE NE ALONG THE COOL SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD NUDGE THE
COASTAL FRONT WELL OFFSHORE JUST A BIT CLOSER IN...BUT THE WEDGE
WILL REMAIN STRONG AND INTACT ALL AREAS. 1/2 INCH OR LOCALLY
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL SE GEORGIA...
OTHERWISE AMOUNTS MAINLY 1/4 INCH OR LESS TONIGHT. WE LOWERED LOW
TEMPS A BIT WITH THE COOL AIR TRAPPED BELOW THE WARM ADVECTION.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CONCERN FOR FOG TONIGHT AS STRATUS COULD
BUILD DOWN AND TANK LOCAL VSBYS. THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN IS
INLAND SE GEORGIA AND LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED SOME STRONGER FOG
MENTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START THE MORNING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. A
SOMEWHAT LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHILE GREATEST LIFTING SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TEMPORARILY AND A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS HOLD INLAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE DURING THE PERIOD...HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE...BUT SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND
TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE COAST IN
SOUTH CAROLINA.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON
POPS TO START OFF MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOW AND INCREASING TREND
THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE ADVECTS TO THE AREA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POSITIONED WELL THE OUR WEST. HAVE INTRODUCED
CATEGORICAL POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COASTAL FRONT STRUGGLES
TO LIFT NORTH AGAINST THE PERSISTENT WEDGE INLAND. FOR THIS
REASON...DID NOT EXPAND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR
INTERIOR COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SBCAPES NEAR 800 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST
MID LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS SEVERAL H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS DIGGING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE
COASTAL FRONT LIFTING NORTH. AT THIS TIME HAVE STAYED SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S INLAND TO MID AND
UPPER 60S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST TUESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR OFFSHORE...BUT DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY
PWATS NEAR 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES SHOULD MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE FORCING INCREASES FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY
NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITHIN A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH LOWS ONLY DIPPING INTO THE MID 50S
INLAND TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD/ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW
EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE DAY SHOULD BRING ABOUT AN INCH OF PRECIP ACCUMULATION OVER MOST
AREAS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. STRONG LOW LVL WINDS ALSO SUGGEST
THAT WINDS COULD BE GUSTY WITH SOME MIXING. MODELS INSIST ON WARMING
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL HEATING
POTENTIAL. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE...IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WIND
CONDITIONS FOR PART OF THE NIGHT BEFORE ENHANCED WIND FIELDS SLIDE
OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY DRY OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND
THE DEPARTING FRONT AND PERSISTS INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ON THURSDAY...IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S...BEFORE SLIGHTLY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER A SOMEWHAT
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH SMALL CHANCES OF LIFR
CIGS OR LOW END MVFR CIGS ON EITHER END. A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND EVEN SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE. LATEST SOUNDINGS AT KSAV SHOW
IFR CIGS MAY REMAIN LOCKED IN THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS RAINFALL
APPEARS LIKELY AND THE WEDGE INVERSION QUITE STRONG. AT KCHS...
MODELS SHOW A DECENT CHANCE THAT CIGS LIFT INTO LOW END MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING TO IFR AGAIN LATE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIMING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AT EITHER TERMINAL IS VERY DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LLWS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER
WIND FIELDS SHIFT OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NAM AND IT/S LOCAL VARIATION WERE USED TO HANDLE A VERY TRICKY
MARINE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS PINCHING GRADIENT INITIALLY EXTENDING
ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF OUR NEAR SHORE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS
SOUTH INTO THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. OVERNIGHT WE RAISED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GEORGIA WATERS 20-60 NM AS GRAYS REEF HAS BEEN
REPORTING A SOLID 19-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT.

AT SOME POINT TODAY WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY WITHIN 20
NM OF THE COAST BUT IT LOOKS FAIRLY MARGINAL WITH 15-20 KT NE WINDS
AND 4-5 FT COVERING THE SITUATION FOR THE MOST PART. TONIGHT AS
THE COASTAL FRONT TILTS NORTH WHILE A LOW PRES WAVE RIDES THE GULF
STREAM...THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN THIS EVENING ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COAST BUT EVENTUALLY WEAKEN ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT. MODEL PROGS
SUGGEST IF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED BY
THIS EVENING....CHANCES ARE DECENT FOR SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED WINDS
AND SEAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER VSBYS AT TIMES
TONIGHT IN RAIN AND FOG OVER THE WATERS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND WHILE
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. IN GENERAL...WINDS
SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 15-20 KT WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN
1-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER GEORGIA WATER.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE AS A COASTAL FRONT LIFTS NORTH WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MOST WATERS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WHILE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE/BUILD WITHIN A SOUTHERLY
FLOW. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH/WARNING COULD EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GUST TO
30-35 KT AWAY FROM THE COAST. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 5-8
FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING
LATE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY OVER ALL WATERS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD LOWER BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
WATERS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH
LATE WEEK.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES MONDAY...BUT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEA FOG COULD DEVELOP AS WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP
MID/UPPER 50 SHELF WATER TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY PRIOR TO WINDS
INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THIS MORNING/S HIGH TIDE AROUND 7 AM AT DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON MAY
APPROACH 7 FT MLLW BUT AN ADVISORY IS UNLIKELY AND ANY RAINFALL
AROUND AT THAT TIME WILL BE LIGHT OR JUST SPRINKLES.

GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY THIS WEEK...THERE IS AN
INCREASING RISK FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. THIS SITUATION MIGHT BE
FURTHER EXACERBATED DUE TO STEADY RAINS PRIOR TO AND DURING THE
HIGH TIDAL CYCLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 210947
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
447 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...DAMP AND COOL WEATHER OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS SE
GEORGIA SEEING LIGHT RAINS WITH ALL LOCATIONS UNDER FULL CLOUD COVER
AND SOME PERIODIC SPRINKLES. TEMPS HAVE BEEN IN THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE
OVERNIGHT. WEAK UPPER FORCING WAS NOTED ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE BROAD
ENTRANCE JET ENTRANCE REGION BELOW THE PATH OF A 135 KT UPPER JET
FROM UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE WESTERN ATLC EAST OF THE OUTER
BANKS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 295K PRES SURFACE WAS INCREASING
OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOW LIGHT RAIN INCREASING.
WE HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS GOING TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 WITH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE KEPT SOME PATCHY FOG
MENTIONS BUT STRATUS LAYERS COULD BUILD DOWN OVER INLAND GEORGIA
ZONES NEAR DAYBREAK. WITH THE BEHAVIOR OF THE STRATUS AT 4 AM...WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.

OUR DAMP AND COOL FORECAST ON TRACK THROUGH TONIGHT...THE CHANGES
WE MADE THIS MORNING WERE TO MAKE IT A BIT COOLER AND EVEN DAMPER
IN SOME LOCATIONS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AND
EXPAND OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING...THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS TODAY WHILE THE AXIS OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED FROM NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE GULF STREAM TO OUR
EAST. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE GRIPS OF AN ANCHORED
SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN WHICH WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN UNDER PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAINS AND A NOSE OF WARMING TEMPS AT 925 MB. WE LOWERED
TEMPS TODAY ACROSS THE BOARD GIVEN OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
AN EMPHATICALLY COOLER SURFACE TEMP TREND PROGGED BY MANY OF THE
00Z MODELS. SOME AREAS INLAND MAY STRUGGLE TO HIT 50 DEGREES TODAY
TO THE NORTH OF I-16...WHILE RAINS HOLD TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S IN AREAS SUCH AS DARIEN AND LUDOWICI GEORGIA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE MANY AREAS WILL
SEE MEASURABLE LIGHT RAINS TODAY WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE
SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO LOWER CONDENSATION
PRES DEFICITS AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELDS. POPS AVERAGE OUT IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY TODAY...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ONCE
AGAIN.

TONIGHT...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL EXPAND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER
SHORT WAVES RIDE NE ALONG THE COOL SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD NUDGE THE
COASTAL FRONT WELL OFFSHORE JUST A BIT CLOSER IN...BUT THE WEDGE
WILL REMAIN STRONG AND INTACT ALL AREAS. 1/2 INCH OR LOCALLY
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL SE GEORGIA...
OTHERWISE AMOUNTS MAINLY 1/4 INCH OR LESS TONIGHT. WE LOWERED LOW
TEMPS A BIT WITH THE COOL AIR TRAPPED BELOW THE WARM ADVECTION.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CONCERN FOR FOG TONIGHT AS STRATUS COULD
BUILD DOWN AND TANK LOCAL VSBYS. THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN IS
INLAND SE GEORGIA AND LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED SOME STRONGER FOG
MENTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START THE MORNING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. A
SOMEWHAT LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHILE GREATEST LIFTING SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TEMPORARILY AND A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS HOLD INLAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE DURING THE PERIOD...HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE...BUT SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND
TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE COAST IN
SOUTH CAROLINA.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON
POPS TO START OFF MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOW AND INCREASING TREND
THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE ADVECTS TO THE AREA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POSITIONED WELL THE OUR WEST. HAVE INTRODUCED
CATEGORICAL POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COASTAL FRONT STRUGGLES
TO LIFT NORTH AGAINST THE PERSISTENT WEDGE INLAND. FOR THIS
REASON...DID NOT EXPAND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR
INTERIOR COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SBCAPES NEAR 800 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST
MID LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS SEVERAL H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS DIGGING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE
COASTAL FRONT LIFTING NORTH. AT THIS TIME HAVE STAYED SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S INLAND TO MID AND
UPPER 60S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST TUESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR OFFSHORE...BUT DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY
PWATS NEAR 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES SHOULD MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE FORCING INCREASES FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY
NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITHIN A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH LOWS ONLY DIPPING INTO THE MID 50S
INLAND TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD/ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW
EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE DAY SHOULD BRING ABOUT AN INCH OF PRECIP ACCUMULATION OVER MOST
AREAS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. STRONG LOW LVL WINDS ALSO SUGGEST
THAT WINDS COULD BE GUSTY WITH SOME MIXING. MODELS INSIST ON WARMING
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL HEATING
POTENTIAL. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE...IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WIND
CONDITIONS FOR PART OF THE NIGHT BEFORE ENHANCED WIND FIELDS SLIDE
OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY DRY OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND
THE DEPARTING FRONT AND PERSISTS INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ON THURSDAY...IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S...BEFORE SLIGHTLY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER A SOMEWHAT
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH SMALL CHANCES OF LIFR
CIGS OR LOW END MVFR CIGS ON EITHER END. A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND EVEN SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE. LATEST SOUNDINGS AT KSAV SHOW
IFR CIGS MAY REMAIN LOCKED IN THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS RAINFALL
APPEARS LIKELY AND THE WEDGE INVERSION QUITE STRONG. AT KCHS...
MODELS SHOW A DECENT CHANCE THAT CIGS LIFT INTO LOW END MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING TO IFR AGAIN LATE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIMING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AT EITHER TERMINAL IS VERY DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LLWS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER
WIND FIELDS SHIFT OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NAM AND IT/S LOCAL VARIATION WERE USED TO HANDLE A VERY TRICKY
MARINE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS PINCHING GRADIENT INITIALLY EXTENDING
ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF OUR NEAR SHORE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS
SOUTH INTO THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. OVERNIGHT WE RAISED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GEORGIA WATERS 20-60 NM AS GRAYS REEF HAS BEEN
REPORTING A SOLID 19-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT.

AT SOME POINT TODAY WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY WITHIN 20
NM OF THE COAST BUT IT LOOKS FAIRLY MARGINAL WITH 15-20 KT NE WINDS
AND 4-5 FT COVERING THE SITUATION FOR THE MOST PART. TONIGHT AS
THE COASTAL FRONT TILTS NORTH WHILE A LOW PRES WAVE RIDES THE GULF
STREAM...THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN THIS EVENING ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COAST BUT EVENTUALLY WEAKEN ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT. MODEL PROGS
SUGGEST IF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED BY
THIS EVENING....CHANCES ARE DECENT FOR SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED WINDS
AND SEAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER VSBYS AT TIMES
TONIGHT IN RAIN AND FOG OVER THE WATERS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND WHILE
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. IN GENERAL...WINDS
SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 15-20 KT WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN
1-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER GEORGIA WATER.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE AS A COASTAL FRONT LIFTS NORTH WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MOST WATERS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WHILE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE/BUILD WITHIN A SOUTHERLY
FLOW. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH/WARNING COULD EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GUST TO
30-35 KT AWAY FROM THE COAST. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 5-8
FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING
LATE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY OVER ALL WATERS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD LOWER BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
WATERS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH
LATE WEEK.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES MONDAY...BUT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEA FOG COULD DEVELOP AS WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP
MID/UPPER 50 SHELF WATER TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY PRIOR TO WINDS
INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THIS MORNING/S HIGH TIDE AROUND 7 AM AT DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON MAY
APPROACH 7 FT MLLW BUT AN ADVISORY IS UNLIKELY AND ANY RAINFALL
AROUND AT THAT TIME WILL BE LIGHT OR JUST SPRINKLES.

GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY THIS WEEK...THERE IS AN
INCREASING RISK FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. THIS SITUATION MIGHT BE
FURTHER EXACERBATED DUE TO STEADY RAINS PRIOR TO AND DURING THE
HIGH TIDAL CYCLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 210947
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
447 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...DAMP AND COOL WEATHER OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS SE
GEORGIA SEEING LIGHT RAINS WITH ALL LOCATIONS UNDER FULL CLOUD COVER
AND SOME PERIODIC SPRINKLES. TEMPS HAVE BEEN IN THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE
OVERNIGHT. WEAK UPPER FORCING WAS NOTED ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE BROAD
ENTRANCE JET ENTRANCE REGION BELOW THE PATH OF A 135 KT UPPER JET
FROM UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE WESTERN ATLC EAST OF THE OUTER
BANKS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 295K PRES SURFACE WAS INCREASING
OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOW LIGHT RAIN INCREASING.
WE HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS GOING TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 WITH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE KEPT SOME PATCHY FOG
MENTIONS BUT STRATUS LAYERS COULD BUILD DOWN OVER INLAND GEORGIA
ZONES NEAR DAYBREAK. WITH THE BEHAVIOR OF THE STRATUS AT 4 AM...WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.

OUR DAMP AND COOL FORECAST ON TRACK THROUGH TONIGHT...THE CHANGES
WE MADE THIS MORNING WERE TO MAKE IT A BIT COOLER AND EVEN DAMPER
IN SOME LOCATIONS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AND
EXPAND OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING...THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS TODAY WHILE THE AXIS OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED FROM NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE GULF STREAM TO OUR
EAST. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE GRIPS OF AN ANCHORED
SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN WHICH WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN UNDER PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAINS AND A NOSE OF WARMING TEMPS AT 925 MB. WE LOWERED
TEMPS TODAY ACROSS THE BOARD GIVEN OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
AN EMPHATICALLY COOLER SURFACE TEMP TREND PROGGED BY MANY OF THE
00Z MODELS. SOME AREAS INLAND MAY STRUGGLE TO HIT 50 DEGREES TODAY
TO THE NORTH OF I-16...WHILE RAINS HOLD TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S IN AREAS SUCH AS DARIEN AND LUDOWICI GEORGIA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE MANY AREAS WILL
SEE MEASURABLE LIGHT RAINS TODAY WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE
SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO LOWER CONDENSATION
PRES DEFICITS AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELDS. POPS AVERAGE OUT IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY TODAY...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ONCE
AGAIN.

TONIGHT...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL EXPAND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER
SHORT WAVES RIDE NE ALONG THE COOL SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD NUDGE THE
COASTAL FRONT WELL OFFSHORE JUST A BIT CLOSER IN...BUT THE WEDGE
WILL REMAIN STRONG AND INTACT ALL AREAS. 1/2 INCH OR LOCALLY
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL SE GEORGIA...
OTHERWISE AMOUNTS MAINLY 1/4 INCH OR LESS TONIGHT. WE LOWERED LOW
TEMPS A BIT WITH THE COOL AIR TRAPPED BELOW THE WARM ADVECTION.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CONCERN FOR FOG TONIGHT AS STRATUS COULD
BUILD DOWN AND TANK LOCAL VSBYS. THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN IS
INLAND SE GEORGIA AND LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED SOME STRONGER FOG
MENTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START THE MORNING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. A
SOMEWHAT LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHILE GREATEST LIFTING SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TEMPORARILY AND A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS HOLD INLAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE DURING THE PERIOD...HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE...BUT SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND
TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE COAST IN
SOUTH CAROLINA.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON
POPS TO START OFF MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOW AND INCREASING TREND
THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE ADVECTS TO THE AREA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POSITIONED WELL THE OUR WEST. HAVE INTRODUCED
CATEGORICAL POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COASTAL FRONT STRUGGLES
TO LIFT NORTH AGAINST THE PERSISTENT WEDGE INLAND. FOR THIS
REASON...DID NOT EXPAND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR
INTERIOR COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SBCAPES NEAR 800 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST
MID LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS SEVERAL H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS DIGGING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE
COASTAL FRONT LIFTING NORTH. AT THIS TIME HAVE STAYED SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S INLAND TO MID AND
UPPER 60S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST TUESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR OFFSHORE...BUT DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY
PWATS NEAR 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES SHOULD MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE FORCING INCREASES FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY
NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITHIN A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH LOWS ONLY DIPPING INTO THE MID 50S
INLAND TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD/ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW
EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE DAY SHOULD BRING ABOUT AN INCH OF PRECIP ACCUMULATION OVER MOST
AREAS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. STRONG LOW LVL WINDS ALSO SUGGEST
THAT WINDS COULD BE GUSTY WITH SOME MIXING. MODELS INSIST ON WARMING
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL HEATING
POTENTIAL. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE...IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WIND
CONDITIONS FOR PART OF THE NIGHT BEFORE ENHANCED WIND FIELDS SLIDE
OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY DRY OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND
THE DEPARTING FRONT AND PERSISTS INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ON THURSDAY...IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S...BEFORE SLIGHTLY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER A SOMEWHAT
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH SMALL CHANCES OF LIFR
CIGS OR LOW END MVFR CIGS ON EITHER END. A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND EVEN SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE. LATEST SOUNDINGS AT KSAV SHOW
IFR CIGS MAY REMAIN LOCKED IN THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS RAINFALL
APPEARS LIKELY AND THE WEDGE INVERSION QUITE STRONG. AT KCHS...
MODELS SHOW A DECENT CHANCE THAT CIGS LIFT INTO LOW END MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING TO IFR AGAIN LATE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIMING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AT EITHER TERMINAL IS VERY DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LLWS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER
WIND FIELDS SHIFT OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NAM AND IT/S LOCAL VARIATION WERE USED TO HANDLE A VERY TRICKY
MARINE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS PINCHING GRADIENT INITIALLY EXTENDING
ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF OUR NEAR SHORE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS
SOUTH INTO THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. OVERNIGHT WE RAISED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GEORGIA WATERS 20-60 NM AS GRAYS REEF HAS BEEN
REPORTING A SOLID 19-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT.

AT SOME POINT TODAY WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY WITHIN 20
NM OF THE COAST BUT IT LOOKS FAIRLY MARGINAL WITH 15-20 KT NE WINDS
AND 4-5 FT COVERING THE SITUATION FOR THE MOST PART. TONIGHT AS
THE COASTAL FRONT TILTS NORTH WHILE A LOW PRES WAVE RIDES THE GULF
STREAM...THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN THIS EVENING ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COAST BUT EVENTUALLY WEAKEN ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT. MODEL PROGS
SUGGEST IF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED BY
THIS EVENING....CHANCES ARE DECENT FOR SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED WINDS
AND SEAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER VSBYS AT TIMES
TONIGHT IN RAIN AND FOG OVER THE WATERS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND WHILE
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. IN GENERAL...WINDS
SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 15-20 KT WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN
1-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER GEORGIA WATER.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE AS A COASTAL FRONT LIFTS NORTH WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MOST WATERS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WHILE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE/BUILD WITHIN A SOUTHERLY
FLOW. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH/WARNING COULD EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GUST TO
30-35 KT AWAY FROM THE COAST. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 5-8
FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING
LATE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY OVER ALL WATERS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD LOWER BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
WATERS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH
LATE WEEK.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES MONDAY...BUT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEA FOG COULD DEVELOP AS WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP
MID/UPPER 50 SHELF WATER TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY PRIOR TO WINDS
INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THIS MORNING/S HIGH TIDE AROUND 7 AM AT DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON MAY
APPROACH 7 FT MLLW BUT AN ADVISORY IS UNLIKELY AND ANY RAINFALL
AROUND AT THAT TIME WILL BE LIGHT OR JUST SPRINKLES.

GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY THIS WEEK...THERE IS AN
INCREASING RISK FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. THIS SITUATION MIGHT BE
FURTHER EXACERBATED DUE TO STEADY RAINS PRIOR TO AND DURING THE
HIGH TIDAL CYCLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 210947
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
447 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...DAMP AND COOL WEATHER OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS SE
GEORGIA SEEING LIGHT RAINS WITH ALL LOCATIONS UNDER FULL CLOUD COVER
AND SOME PERIODIC SPRINKLES. TEMPS HAVE BEEN IN THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE
OVERNIGHT. WEAK UPPER FORCING WAS NOTED ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE BROAD
ENTRANCE JET ENTRANCE REGION BELOW THE PATH OF A 135 KT UPPER JET
FROM UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE WESTERN ATLC EAST OF THE OUTER
BANKS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 295K PRES SURFACE WAS INCREASING
OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOW LIGHT RAIN INCREASING.
WE HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS GOING TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 WITH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE KEPT SOME PATCHY FOG
MENTIONS BUT STRATUS LAYERS COULD BUILD DOWN OVER INLAND GEORGIA
ZONES NEAR DAYBREAK. WITH THE BEHAVIOR OF THE STRATUS AT 4 AM...WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.

OUR DAMP AND COOL FORECAST ON TRACK THROUGH TONIGHT...THE CHANGES
WE MADE THIS MORNING WERE TO MAKE IT A BIT COOLER AND EVEN DAMPER
IN SOME LOCATIONS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AND
EXPAND OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING...THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS TODAY WHILE THE AXIS OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED FROM NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE GULF STREAM TO OUR
EAST. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE GRIPS OF AN ANCHORED
SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN WHICH WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN UNDER PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAINS AND A NOSE OF WARMING TEMPS AT 925 MB. WE LOWERED
TEMPS TODAY ACROSS THE BOARD GIVEN OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
AN EMPHATICALLY COOLER SURFACE TEMP TREND PROGGED BY MANY OF THE
00Z MODELS. SOME AREAS INLAND MAY STRUGGLE TO HIT 50 DEGREES TODAY
TO THE NORTH OF I-16...WHILE RAINS HOLD TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S IN AREAS SUCH AS DARIEN AND LUDOWICI GEORGIA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE MANY AREAS WILL
SEE MEASURABLE LIGHT RAINS TODAY WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE
SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO LOWER CONDENSATION
PRES DEFICITS AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELDS. POPS AVERAGE OUT IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY TODAY...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE ONCE
AGAIN.

TONIGHT...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL EXPAND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER
SHORT WAVES RIDE NE ALONG THE COOL SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD NUDGE THE
COASTAL FRONT WELL OFFSHORE JUST A BIT CLOSER IN...BUT THE WEDGE
WILL REMAIN STRONG AND INTACT ALL AREAS. 1/2 INCH OR LOCALLY
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL SE GEORGIA...
OTHERWISE AMOUNTS MAINLY 1/4 INCH OR LESS TONIGHT. WE LOWERED LOW
TEMPS A BIT WITH THE COOL AIR TRAPPED BELOW THE WARM ADVECTION.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CONCERN FOR FOG TONIGHT AS STRATUS COULD
BUILD DOWN AND TANK LOCAL VSBYS. THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN IS
INLAND SE GEORGIA AND LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED SOME STRONGER FOG
MENTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START THE MORNING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. A
SOMEWHAT LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHILE GREATEST LIFTING SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TEMPORARILY AND A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS HOLD INLAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE DURING THE PERIOD...HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE...BUT SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND
TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE COAST IN
SOUTH CAROLINA.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON
POPS TO START OFF MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOW AND INCREASING TREND
THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE ADVECTS TO THE AREA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POSITIONED WELL THE OUR WEST. HAVE INTRODUCED
CATEGORICAL POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COASTAL FRONT STRUGGLES
TO LIFT NORTH AGAINST THE PERSISTENT WEDGE INLAND. FOR THIS
REASON...DID NOT EXPAND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR
INTERIOR COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SBCAPES NEAR 800 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST
MID LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS SEVERAL H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS DIGGING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE
COASTAL FRONT LIFTING NORTH. AT THIS TIME HAVE STAYED SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S INLAND TO MID AND
UPPER 60S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST TUESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR OFFSHORE...BUT DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY
PWATS NEAR 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES SHOULD MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE FORCING INCREASES FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY
NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITHIN A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH LOWS ONLY DIPPING INTO THE MID 50S
INLAND TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD/ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW
EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE DAY SHOULD BRING ABOUT AN INCH OF PRECIP ACCUMULATION OVER MOST
AREAS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. STRONG LOW LVL WINDS ALSO SUGGEST
THAT WINDS COULD BE GUSTY WITH SOME MIXING. MODELS INSIST ON WARMING
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL HEATING
POTENTIAL. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE...IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WIND
CONDITIONS FOR PART OF THE NIGHT BEFORE ENHANCED WIND FIELDS SLIDE
OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY DRY OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND
THE DEPARTING FRONT AND PERSISTS INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ON THURSDAY...IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S...BEFORE SLIGHTLY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER A SOMEWHAT
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH SMALL CHANCES OF LIFR
CIGS OR LOW END MVFR CIGS ON EITHER END. A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND EVEN SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE. LATEST SOUNDINGS AT KSAV SHOW
IFR CIGS MAY REMAIN LOCKED IN THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS RAINFALL
APPEARS LIKELY AND THE WEDGE INVERSION QUITE STRONG. AT KCHS...
MODELS SHOW A DECENT CHANCE THAT CIGS LIFT INTO LOW END MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING TO IFR AGAIN LATE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIMING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AT EITHER TERMINAL IS VERY DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LLWS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER
WIND FIELDS SHIFT OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NAM AND IT/S LOCAL VARIATION WERE USED TO HANDLE A VERY TRICKY
MARINE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS PINCHING GRADIENT INITIALLY EXTENDING
ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF OUR NEAR SHORE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS
SOUTH INTO THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. OVERNIGHT WE RAISED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GEORGIA WATERS 20-60 NM AS GRAYS REEF HAS BEEN
REPORTING A SOLID 19-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT.

AT SOME POINT TODAY WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY WITHIN 20
NM OF THE COAST BUT IT LOOKS FAIRLY MARGINAL WITH 15-20 KT NE WINDS
AND 4-5 FT COVERING THE SITUATION FOR THE MOST PART. TONIGHT AS
THE COASTAL FRONT TILTS NORTH WHILE A LOW PRES WAVE RIDES THE GULF
STREAM...THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN THIS EVENING ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COAST BUT EVENTUALLY WEAKEN ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT. MODEL PROGS
SUGGEST IF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED BY
THIS EVENING....CHANCES ARE DECENT FOR SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED WINDS
AND SEAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER VSBYS AT TIMES
TONIGHT IN RAIN AND FOG OVER THE WATERS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND WHILE
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. IN GENERAL...WINDS
SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 15-20 KT WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN
1-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER GEORGIA WATER.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE AS A COASTAL FRONT LIFTS NORTH WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MOST WATERS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WHILE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE/BUILD WITHIN A SOUTHERLY
FLOW. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH/WARNING COULD EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GUST TO
30-35 KT AWAY FROM THE COAST. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 5-8
FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING
LATE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY OVER ALL WATERS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
WINDS/SEAS SHOULD LOWER BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
WATERS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH
LATE WEEK.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES MONDAY...BUT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEA FOG COULD DEVELOP AS WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP
MID/UPPER 50 SHELF WATER TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY PRIOR TO WINDS
INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THIS MORNING/S HIGH TIDE AROUND 7 AM AT DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON MAY
APPROACH 7 FT MLLW BUT AN ADVISORY IS UNLIKELY AND ANY RAINFALL
AROUND AT THAT TIME WILL BE LIGHT OR JUST SPRINKLES.

GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY THIS WEEK...THERE IS AN
INCREASING RISK FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. THIS SITUATION MIGHT BE
FURTHER EXACERBATED DUE TO STEADY RAINS PRIOR TO AND DURING THE
HIGH TIDAL CYCLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





  [top]

000
FXUS62 KFFC 210933
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
433 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE EAST COAST
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE. THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY SO THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM.  WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING NE ACROSS THE GULF IS PUSHING SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY
SPREADING PRECIP INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH GA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTH GA AS
WEDGE WILL BE FIRMLY INPLACE ACROSS N GA. WITH THIS WEDGE BUILDING
IN MAX TEMPS TO DAY WILL BE AN ISSUE. LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO CREEP
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT SURE IF THEY WILL GET THAT WARM
AS NOT SURE JUST HOW DEEP THE WEDGE IS YET.


01


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG UPPER
TROUGH STILL WEST OF THE MS RIVER. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
BRING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
WEDGE IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDER SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED
NORTH AND EAST. A FEW SEVERE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE WEDGE
BUILDS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE COLD FRONT BE JUST
INTO NRTHWEST GA AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. RAIN EXITING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE A MIX ON RAIN AND SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTS
EASTWARD. DRY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING
RAIN INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS.

41


&&



17

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR TO LIFR EXPECTED BY
DAY BREAK FOR ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP LOW CEILINGS AND EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
GET INTO THE VFR RANGE THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE
EAST AT 10KT OR LESS WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE FROM TIME TO
TIME ACROSS THE ATL AREA TAF SITES. MCN AND CSG WILL SEE RAIN BY
00Z MON AS DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO S GA TODAY. VSBYS WILL
BE UP AND DOWN ALL DAY BUT SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE VFR TO MVFR
RANGE. WILL SEE SOME IFR VSBYS BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  41  50  43 /  40  60  60  50
ATLANTA         52  43  52  47 /  30  50  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     51  39  48  42 /  20  60  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    52  42  52  45 /  30  30  40  50
COLUMBUS        55  46  59  52 /  40  50  50  50
GAINESVILLE     50  41  49  43 /  30  50  50  50
MACON           54  45  57  48 /  50  60  50  50
ROME            52  41  53  46 /  20  30  30  50
PEACHTREE CITY  52  42  55  47 /  40  50  50  50
VIDALIA         52  48  60  52 /  60  70  70  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...30



000
FXUS62 KFFC 210933
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
433 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE EAST COAST
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE. THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY SO THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM.  WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING NE ACROSS THE GULF IS PUSHING SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY
SPREADING PRECIP INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH GA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTH GA AS
WEDGE WILL BE FIRMLY INPLACE ACROSS N GA. WITH THIS WEDGE BUILDING
IN MAX TEMPS TO DAY WILL BE AN ISSUE. LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO CREEP
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT SURE IF THEY WILL GET THAT WARM
AS NOT SURE JUST HOW DEEP THE WEDGE IS YET.


01


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG UPPER
TROUGH STILL WEST OF THE MS RIVER. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
BRING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
WEDGE IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDER SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED
NORTH AND EAST. A FEW SEVERE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE WEDGE
BUILDS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE COLD FRONT BE JUST
INTO NRTHWEST GA AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. RAIN EXITING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE A MIX ON RAIN AND SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTS
EASTWARD. DRY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING
RAIN INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS.

41


&&



17

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR TO LIFR EXPECTED BY
DAY BREAK FOR ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP LOW CEILINGS AND EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
GET INTO THE VFR RANGE THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE
EAST AT 10KT OR LESS WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE FROM TIME TO
TIME ACROSS THE ATL AREA TAF SITES. MCN AND CSG WILL SEE RAIN BY
00Z MON AS DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO S GA TODAY. VSBYS WILL
BE UP AND DOWN ALL DAY BUT SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE VFR TO MVFR
RANGE. WILL SEE SOME IFR VSBYS BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  41  50  43 /  40  60  60  50
ATLANTA         52  43  52  47 /  30  50  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     51  39  48  42 /  20  60  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    52  42  52  45 /  30  30  40  50
COLUMBUS        55  46  59  52 /  40  50  50  50
GAINESVILLE     50  41  49  43 /  30  50  50  50
MACON           54  45  57  48 /  50  60  50  50
ROME            52  41  53  46 /  20  30  30  50
PEACHTREE CITY  52  42  55  47 /  40  50  50  50
VIDALIA         52  48  60  52 /  60  70  70  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...30



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCAE 210848
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
348 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WEDGE RIDGE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART TODAY
WITH SIGNIFICANT LIFT OVER ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE HRRR
DISPLAYS RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST PART EARLY TODAY. THE SPC WRF HAS
LITTLE RAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BUT HAS RAIN SPREADING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE MUCH OF THE
RAIN WILL STAY SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEAR
TERM. FORECASTED CHANCE POPS TODAY MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION
CLOSER TO THE GREATER LIFT AND MOISTURE. FORECASTED LIKELY POPS
TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE GUIDANCE CONSISTENCY OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE LIFT APPEARS WEAK WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THE NAM AND GFS HAVE AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH.
FOLLOWED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF THE
WEDGE PATTERN. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUING. MOISTURE
APPEARS TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW BEHIND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MONDAY BUT CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THE TYPE
MAY BE MAINLY DRIZZLE. FORECASTED THE MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCE
AROUND 50 PERCENT WHICH IS CLOSE TO AN ECMWF AND GFS MOS AVERAGE.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM BECAUSE OF THE
WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING DEEP UPPER TROUGHING
DEVELOPING WITH HIGH MOISTURE IN THE FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NAM SURFACE-BASED
LI PATTERN INDICATES THE WEDGE RIDGE PATTERN WILL HOLD TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE HIGH MOISTURE PLUS A SERIES
OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUPPORTS HIGH POPS. THE WARM FRONT
MAY LIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH
THE COLD FRONT TIMING AND NOW INDICATE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

IF THE FORECAST AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY H85 WINDS OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS.
THE SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INDICATES A
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE
RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE
FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN
HIGHER MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS A TENDENCY TO
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN PERIODS OF VFR OR IFR CIGS. SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHORT-TERM
SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...CONTINUING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MET/MAV GUIDANCE SHOWING POSSIBLE IFR
CIGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE MONITORING. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY BEGINS
TO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS
CROSS THE REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 210735
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
235 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND WEDGE LIKE CONDITIONS COVERING MUCH OF THE
REGION CURRENTLY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VLLY...WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF
WHICH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RECOMMENCE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
FA AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF S GA...WHICH LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING
NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH A LIGHT NE WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO  THE MS
VALLEY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. DURING THE PERIOD...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH AS THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG SUNDAY MORNING WITH
POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM S TO N EXPECT A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN POPS. POPS GO FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY TO CATEGORICAL
BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LITTLE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD JUST BELOW CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS AND JUST ABOVE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE VIGOROUS S/W WILL DIG A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY BY MID WEEK AS MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE
UPPER PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1.5
INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
A WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MODELS INDICATE
THIS FEATURE HOLDING INTO TUESDAY. HAVE TRENDED WITH LOWER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ECMWF/GFS/NAM INDICATE NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS LIFT THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY RISE SLOWLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS
FROM NE AND E TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF THE SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER ISENTROPIC LIFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
AN INCREASING WIND FIELD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
SHOWS A 50 TO 60 KT H8 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DELAY OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AREA BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BY WEDNESDAY HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO EXPECT INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE INCREASING SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF A SMALL
POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN
RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS A TENDENCY TO
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN PERIODS OF VFR OR IFR CIGS. SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHORT-TERM
SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...CONTINUING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MET/MAV GUIDANCE SHOWING POSSIBLE IFR
CIGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE MONITORING. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY BEGINS
TO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS
CROSS THE REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 210735
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
235 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND WEDGE LIKE CONDITIONS COVERING MUCH OF THE
REGION CURRENTLY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VLLY...WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF
WHICH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RECOMMENCE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
FA AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF S GA...WHICH LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING
NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH A LIGHT NE WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO  THE MS
VALLEY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. DURING THE PERIOD...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH AS THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG SUNDAY MORNING WITH
POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM S TO N EXPECT A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN POPS. POPS GO FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY TO CATEGORICAL
BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LITTLE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD JUST BELOW CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS AND JUST ABOVE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE VIGOROUS S/W WILL DIG A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY BY MID WEEK AS MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE
UPPER PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1.5
INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
A WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MODELS INDICATE
THIS FEATURE HOLDING INTO TUESDAY. HAVE TRENDED WITH LOWER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ECMWF/GFS/NAM INDICATE NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS LIFT THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY RISE SLOWLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS
FROM NE AND E TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF THE SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER ISENTROPIC LIFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
AN INCREASING WIND FIELD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
SHOWS A 50 TO 60 KT H8 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DELAY OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AREA BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BY WEDNESDAY HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO EXPECT INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE INCREASING SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF A SMALL
POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN
RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS A TENDENCY TO
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN PERIODS OF VFR OR IFR CIGS. SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHORT-TERM
SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...CONTINUING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MET/MAV GUIDANCE SHOWING POSSIBLE IFR
CIGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE MONITORING. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY BEGINS
TO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS
CROSS THE REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 210713
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
213 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND WEDGE LIKE CONDITIONS COVERING MUCH OF THE
REGION CURRENTLY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VLLY...WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF
WHICH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RECOMMENCE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
FA AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF S GA...WHICH LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING
NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH A LIGHT NE WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO  THE MS
VALLEY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. DURING THE PERIOD...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH AS THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG SUNDAY MORNING WITH
POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM S TO N EXPECT A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN POPS. POPS GO FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY TO CATEGORICAL
BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LITTLE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD JUST BELOW CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS AND JUST ABOVE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE VIGOROUS S/W WILL DIG A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY BY MID WEEK AS MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE
UPPER PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1.5
INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
A WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MODELS INDICATE
THIS FEATURE HOLDING INTO TUESDAY. HAVE TRENDED WITH LOWER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ECMWF/GFS/NAM INDICATE NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS LIFT THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY RISE SLOWLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS
FROM NE AND E TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF THE SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER ISENTROPIC LIFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
AN INCREASING WIND FIELD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
SHOWS A 50 TO 60 KT H8 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DELAY OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AREA BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BY WEDNESDAY HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO EXPECT INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE INCREASING SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF A SMALL
POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN
RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GENERALLY MVFR
CIGS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS A TENDENCY
TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN PERIODS OF VFR OR IFR CIGS. SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHORT-TERM
SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...CONTINUING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MET/MAV GUIDANCE SHOWING POSSIBLE IFR
CIGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE MONITORING. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY BEGINS
TO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS
CROSS THE REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 210713
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
213 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND WEDGE LIKE CONDITIONS COVERING MUCH OF THE
REGION CURRENTLY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VLLY...WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF
WHICH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RECOMMENCE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
FA AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF S GA...WHICH LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING
NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH A LIGHT NE WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO  THE MS
VALLEY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. DURING THE PERIOD...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH AS THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG SUNDAY MORNING WITH
POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM S TO N EXPECT A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN POPS. POPS GO FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY TO CATEGORICAL
BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LITTLE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD JUST BELOW CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS AND JUST ABOVE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE VIGOROUS S/W WILL DIG A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY BY MID WEEK AS MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE
UPPER PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1.5
INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
A WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MODELS INDICATE
THIS FEATURE HOLDING INTO TUESDAY. HAVE TRENDED WITH LOWER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ECMWF/GFS/NAM INDICATE NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS LIFT THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY RISE SLOWLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS
FROM NE AND E TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF THE SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER ISENTROPIC LIFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
AN INCREASING WIND FIELD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
SHOWS A 50 TO 60 KT H8 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DELAY OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AREA BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BY WEDNESDAY HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO EXPECT INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE INCREASING SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF A SMALL
POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN
RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GENERALLY MVFR
CIGS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS A TENDENCY
TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN PERIODS OF VFR OR IFR CIGS. SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHORT-TERM
SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...CONTINUING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MET/MAV GUIDANCE SHOWING POSSIBLE IFR
CIGS AT AGS/DNL/OGB LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE MONITORING. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY BEGINS
TO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS
CROSS THE REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 210620
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
120 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...

UPPED POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SOME FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON
INCREASING COVERAGE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS. PRECIPITATION IS VERY
LIGHT AND MUCH IS NOT REACHING THE SURFACE...HOWEVER OUR POPS WERE
VERY LOW FOR THE EVENING. MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS AND SKIES
AS WELL...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS LOOK GOOD.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH VERY WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT WITH
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT.

YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND BEGINS TO DAM DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN A DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL DAMMING SCENARIO. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEEPENING DOWN THE PLAINS PROGGED TO IMPACT
US MID-WEEK.

AS THE GULF SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT...WHILE ADDITIONAL AND MORE
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BUT AT BEST IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON HOW SOLIDLY THE CAD ENTRENCHES ITSELF THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE CAD REALLY SETS UP IN EARNEST. RIGHT NOW HAVE TEMPS AT OR JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES...LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER MAV VS MET
VALUES /00Z ECS COOLER STILL/.

MUCAPE VALUES NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER POTENTIAL
EVEN FOR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP
WORDING AT JUST RAIN FOR NOW. MORE INTERESTING WEATHER EVENT
FROM THE DEEPENING PLAINS TROUGH SETS UP INTO THE EXTENDED.

TDP

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE MADE SLIGHT CHANGES WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM DUE TO CONTINUED
TIMING SHIFTS OF THE MODELS. THE 06Z GFS RUN PUSHED THE TIMING BACK
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS RUN NOW HAS THE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
RUN IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER. THIS WOULD PUT THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO
CURRENT POPS MONDAY NIGHT, MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TUESDAY...AND
INCREASE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS THERE.
AT THIS TIME THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY WITH THE FROPA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND
PUSH THE TIMING BACK TO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR TO LIFR EXPECTED BY
DAY BREAK FOR ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP LOW CEILINGS AND EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
GET INTO THE VFR RANGE THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE
EAST AT 10KT OR LESS WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE FROM TIME TO
TIME ACROSS THE ATL AREA TAF SITES. MCN AND CSG WILL SEE RAIN BY
00Z MON AS DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO S GA TODAY. VSBYS WILL
BE UP AND DOWN ALL DAY BUT SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE VFR TO MVFR
RANGE. WILL SEE SOME IFR VSBYS BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  41  50  43 /  40  60  60  60
ATLANTA         52  43  52  47 /  30  50  30  60
BLAIRSVILLE     49  39  48  42 /  20  60  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    52  42  52  45 /  30  30  20  50
COLUMBUS        55  46  59  53 /  40  50  40  60
GAINESVILLE     50  41  49  43 /  30  50  50  60
MACON           54  45  57  51 /  50  60  50  60
ROME            52  41  52  46 /  20  30  20  50
PEACHTREE CITY  52  42  55  47 /  40  50  30  60
VIDALIA         53  48  60  55 /  60  70  70  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 210620
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
120 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...

UPPED POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SOME FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON
INCREASING COVERAGE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS. PRECIPITATION IS VERY
LIGHT AND MUCH IS NOT REACHING THE SURFACE...HOWEVER OUR POPS WERE
VERY LOW FOR THE EVENING. MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS AND SKIES
AS WELL...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS LOOK GOOD.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH VERY WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT WITH
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT.

YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND BEGINS TO DAM DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN A DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL DAMMING SCENARIO. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEEPENING DOWN THE PLAINS PROGGED TO IMPACT
US MID-WEEK.

AS THE GULF SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT...WHILE ADDITIONAL AND MORE
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BUT AT BEST IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON HOW SOLIDLY THE CAD ENTRENCHES ITSELF THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE CAD REALLY SETS UP IN EARNEST. RIGHT NOW HAVE TEMPS AT OR JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES...LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER MAV VS MET
VALUES /00Z ECS COOLER STILL/.

MUCAPE VALUES NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER POTENTIAL
EVEN FOR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP
WORDING AT JUST RAIN FOR NOW. MORE INTERESTING WEATHER EVENT
FROM THE DEEPENING PLAINS TROUGH SETS UP INTO THE EXTENDED.

TDP

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE MADE SLIGHT CHANGES WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM DUE TO CONTINUED
TIMING SHIFTS OF THE MODELS. THE 06Z GFS RUN PUSHED THE TIMING BACK
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS RUN NOW HAS THE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
RUN IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER. THIS WOULD PUT THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO
CURRENT POPS MONDAY NIGHT, MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TUESDAY...AND
INCREASE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS THERE.
AT THIS TIME THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY WITH THE FROPA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND
PUSH THE TIMING BACK TO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR TO LIFR EXPECTED BY
DAY BREAK FOR ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP LOW CEILINGS AND EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
GET INTO THE VFR RANGE THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE
EAST AT 10KT OR LESS WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE FROM TIME TO
TIME ACROSS THE ATL AREA TAF SITES. MCN AND CSG WILL SEE RAIN BY
00Z MON AS DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO S GA TODAY. VSBYS WILL
BE UP AND DOWN ALL DAY BUT SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE VFR TO MVFR
RANGE. WILL SEE SOME IFR VSBYS BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  41  50  43 /  40  60  60  60
ATLANTA         52  43  52  47 /  30  50  30  60
BLAIRSVILLE     49  39  48  42 /  20  60  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    52  42  52  45 /  30  30  20  50
COLUMBUS        55  46  59  53 /  40  50  40  60
GAINESVILLE     50  41  49  43 /  30  50  50  60
MACON           54  45  57  51 /  50  60  50  60
ROME            52  41  52  46 /  20  30  20  50
PEACHTREE CITY  52  42  55  47 /  40  50  30  60
VIDALIA         53  48  60  55 /  60  70  70  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 210620
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
120 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...

UPPED POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SOME FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON
INCREASING COVERAGE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS. PRECIPITATION IS VERY
LIGHT AND MUCH IS NOT REACHING THE SURFACE...HOWEVER OUR POPS WERE
VERY LOW FOR THE EVENING. MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS AND SKIES
AS WELL...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS LOOK GOOD.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH VERY WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT WITH
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT.

YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND BEGINS TO DAM DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN A DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL DAMMING SCENARIO. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEEPENING DOWN THE PLAINS PROGGED TO IMPACT
US MID-WEEK.

AS THE GULF SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT...WHILE ADDITIONAL AND MORE
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BUT AT BEST IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON HOW SOLIDLY THE CAD ENTRENCHES ITSELF THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE CAD REALLY SETS UP IN EARNEST. RIGHT NOW HAVE TEMPS AT OR JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES...LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER MAV VS MET
VALUES /00Z ECS COOLER STILL/.

MUCAPE VALUES NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER POTENTIAL
EVEN FOR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP
WORDING AT JUST RAIN FOR NOW. MORE INTERESTING WEATHER EVENT
FROM THE DEEPENING PLAINS TROUGH SETS UP INTO THE EXTENDED.

TDP

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE MADE SLIGHT CHANGES WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM DUE TO CONTINUED
TIMING SHIFTS OF THE MODELS. THE 06Z GFS RUN PUSHED THE TIMING BACK
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS RUN NOW HAS THE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
RUN IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER. THIS WOULD PUT THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO
CURRENT POPS MONDAY NIGHT, MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TUESDAY...AND
INCREASE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS THERE.
AT THIS TIME THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY WITH THE FROPA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND
PUSH THE TIMING BACK TO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR TO LIFR EXPECTED BY
DAY BREAK FOR ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP LOW CEILINGS AND EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
GET INTO THE VFR RANGE THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE
EAST AT 10KT OR LESS WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE FROM TIME TO
TIME ACROSS THE ATL AREA TAF SITES. MCN AND CSG WILL SEE RAIN BY
00Z MON AS DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO S GA TODAY. VSBYS WILL
BE UP AND DOWN ALL DAY BUT SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE VFR TO MVFR
RANGE. WILL SEE SOME IFR VSBYS BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  41  50  43 /  40  60  60  60
ATLANTA         52  43  52  47 /  30  50  30  60
BLAIRSVILLE     49  39  48  42 /  20  60  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    52  42  52  45 /  30  30  20  50
COLUMBUS        55  46  59  53 /  40  50  40  60
GAINESVILLE     50  41  49  43 /  30  50  50  60
MACON           54  45  57  51 /  50  60  50  60
ROME            52  41  52  46 /  20  30  20  50
PEACHTREE CITY  52  42  55  47 /  40  50  30  60
VIDALIA         53  48  60  55 /  60  70  70  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 210620
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
120 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...

UPPED POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SOME FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON
INCREASING COVERAGE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS. PRECIPITATION IS VERY
LIGHT AND MUCH IS NOT REACHING THE SURFACE...HOWEVER OUR POPS WERE
VERY LOW FOR THE EVENING. MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS AND SKIES
AS WELL...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS LOOK GOOD.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH VERY WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT WITH
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT.

YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND BEGINS TO DAM DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN A DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL DAMMING SCENARIO. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEEPENING DOWN THE PLAINS PROGGED TO IMPACT
US MID-WEEK.

AS THE GULF SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT...WHILE ADDITIONAL AND MORE
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BUT AT BEST IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON HOW SOLIDLY THE CAD ENTRENCHES ITSELF THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE CAD REALLY SETS UP IN EARNEST. RIGHT NOW HAVE TEMPS AT OR JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES...LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER MAV VS MET
VALUES /00Z ECS COOLER STILL/.

MUCAPE VALUES NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER POTENTIAL
EVEN FOR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP
WORDING AT JUST RAIN FOR NOW. MORE INTERESTING WEATHER EVENT
FROM THE DEEPENING PLAINS TROUGH SETS UP INTO THE EXTENDED.

TDP

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE MADE SLIGHT CHANGES WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM DUE TO CONTINUED
TIMING SHIFTS OF THE MODELS. THE 06Z GFS RUN PUSHED THE TIMING BACK
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS RUN NOW HAS THE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
RUN IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER. THIS WOULD PUT THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO
CURRENT POPS MONDAY NIGHT, MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TUESDAY...AND
INCREASE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS THERE.
AT THIS TIME THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY WITH THE FROPA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND
PUSH THE TIMING BACK TO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR TO LIFR EXPECTED BY
DAY BREAK FOR ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP LOW CEILINGS AND EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
GET INTO THE VFR RANGE THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE
EAST AT 10KT OR LESS WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE FROM TIME TO
TIME ACROSS THE ATL AREA TAF SITES. MCN AND CSG WILL SEE RAIN BY
00Z MON AS DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO S GA TODAY. VSBYS WILL
BE UP AND DOWN ALL DAY BUT SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE VFR TO MVFR
RANGE. WILL SEE SOME IFR VSBYS BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  41  50  43 /  40  60  60  60
ATLANTA         52  43  52  47 /  30  50  30  60
BLAIRSVILLE     49  39  48  42 /  20  60  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    52  42  52  45 /  30  30  20  50
COLUMBUS        55  46  59  53 /  40  50  40  60
GAINESVILLE     50  41  49  43 /  30  50  50  60
MACON           54  45  57  51 /  50  60  50  60
ROME            52  41  52  46 /  20  30  20  50
PEACHTREE CITY  52  42  55  47 /  40  50  30  60
VIDALIA         53  48  60  55 /  60  70  70  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KCHS 210619
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
119 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

THE WEDGE REGIME STRATUS COULD PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE AND COULD
LOWER TOWARD THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT FOG OVERNIGHT. NEAR THE
COAST...PERSISTENT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS COULD
OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITY. FARTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS COULD
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ONLY SLOWLY OVERNIGHT AND BY
DAYBREAK WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S SOUTH AND ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY FROM TONIGHT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AND REINFORCES THE PRE-EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE EAST/SE OF THE GULF STREAM. IT ALSO KEEPS
THE INLAND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT EXTENDS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE IMPULSE ALOFT ALSO TRIGGERS WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST SOME 250 NM EAST OF SAVANNAH AS IT
MOVES LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL AGAIN BE THE
MAIN FACTOR FOR GENERATING RAINFALL...AS IT INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND POPS ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. WE/LL
START THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG
BEFORE POPS CLIMB INTO THE 30-50 PERCENTILE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE OVER SE GA AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-16 DURING THAT TIME. OVERCAST SKIES AND A CONTINUED FEED OF AIR
FROM THE NORTH/NE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FORCES THE ATLANTIC WAVE TO
DEEPEN A FEW MILLIBARS AS IT LIFTS NE ROUGHLY ALONG THE GULF STREAM
TO A POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN
REINFORCES THE WEDGE INLAND...WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS FOR A FURTHER
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THAT ALONG WITH FORCING FROM THE
UPPER JET OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE COUNTRY AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY ATLANTIC LOW WILL CAUSE COVERAGE OF RAIN
TO EXPAND INTO AT LEAST THE 70-80 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE COVERAGE DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY. PWATS OF 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES AND THE FLOW
ALOFT OPENING MORE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS AT LEAST 1/4
TO 1/2 INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO COULD SUPPORT A
LITTLE ELEVATED CONVECTION. LOW STRATUS DECKS WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME
REDUCTION IN SURFACE VISIBILITIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AND WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
5-10 DEGREE TEMP SWING FROM DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY TO NIGHTTIME LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN A FAIRLY LARGE NORTH/NW TO SOUTH/SE TEMP GRADIENT
MONDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. FURTHER UPSTREAM A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE STARTS TO DIG
THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES...WHICH IN TURN AMPLIFIES THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS BACKS OUR FLOW ALOFT FURTHER TO THE
SW AND OPENS THE DOOR FOR A FEED OF EVEN DEEPER AND TROPICAL-LIKE
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN. PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES SO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE MONDAY NIGHT
THEN SHOULD PEAK IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL QPF
WILL BE AT LEAST 1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES...WITH POTENTIAL HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THIS PATTERN. THE SHORT WAVE IN THE PLAINS WILL ALSO TRIGGER
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION BY TUESDAY...WHICH IN TURN
ATTEMPTS TO LIFT OUR COASTAL WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. NOT SURE HOW THIS
PROGRESSION WILL ACTUAL PAN OUT GIVEN THAT THE INLAND WEDGE WILL BE
RELUCTANT TO GIVE UP ITS HOLD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM ADVECTION TO
BOOST TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 60S...PERHAPS EVEN
HIGHER NEAR THE ALTAMAHA. THIS IN TURN CREATES SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-800 J/KG IN SYNC WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES AND SOUTH OF I-16. IT/S IN
THESE AREAS WHERE WE HAVE ISOLATED T-STORMS MENTIONED IN THE LATEST
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST. WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND IT. A MUCH
QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS THEN ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON
FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH SMALL CHANCES OF LIFR
CIGS OR LOW END MVFR CIGS ON EITHER END. A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND EVEN SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE. LATEST SOUNDINGS AT KSAV SHOW
IFR CIGS MAY REMAIN LOCKED IN THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS RAINFALL
APPEARS LIKELY AND THE WEDGE INVERSION QUITE STRONG. AT KCHS...
MODELS SHOW A DECENT CHANCE THAT CIGS LIFT INTO LOW END MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING TO IFR AGAIN LATE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIMING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AT EITHER TERMINAL IS VERY DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...BASED ON THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND NEAR TERM PROGS
AS WELL AS THE OBSERVATION FROM GRAYS REEF...WE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE GEORGIA WATERS 20-60 NM OFFSHORE. WINDS ALL WATERS
15-20 KT OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER GUSTS 20 NM AND BEYOND WITH SEAS
3-5 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-6 FT OFFSHORE.

SUNDAY...A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE GA COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND A STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NE WINDS OF AT
LEAST 15-20 KT...WITH GUSTS AT TIMES TO NEAR 25 KT. THE SCA WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE GEORGIA OUTER WATERS AND MAY BE NEED OVER PARTS OF
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE ATLANTIC WAVE DEEPENS SOME AS IT
LIFTS NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE HOLDS
FIRM. THE GRADIENT THOUGH DOES SLACKEN SOME OF THE LOW SHIFTS
NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS AND
BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE INLAND WEDGE IS STILL IN PLACE DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT DOES ATTEMPT TO ERODE BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COASTAL WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH/NW. UNTIL THIS
TRANSITION THOUGH OUR WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO VEER AROUND...AS SPEEDS
HOLD NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS ARE LIMITED TO 3 OR 4 FT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FINALLY THE COASTAL WARM FRONT WILL
SHIFT NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND THE RESULTING
MARINE-LAYERING EFFECTS WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE FRONT THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG
ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES MAY SUPPORT GALES...OR AT THE LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT SOME STRONGER
T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER ALL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LOWER BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES AS COLD ADVECTION WANES AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

SEA FOG...LOW STRATUS DECKS COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
INTO TUESDAY. ACTUAL SEA FOG MAY HAVE A WINDOW TO DEVELOP AS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP MID/UPPER 50 SHELF WATER TEMPS
WITHIN A SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
PRIOR TO WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT SOMETIME ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...GIVEN
THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AN INCREASING
RISK FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME
OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. THIS SITUATION MIGHT BE FURTHER EXACERBATED
DUE TO STEADY RAINS PRIOR TO AND DURING THE HIGH TIDAL CYCLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 210619
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
119 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

THE WEDGE REGIME STRATUS COULD PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE AND COULD
LOWER TOWARD THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT FOG OVERNIGHT. NEAR THE
COAST...PERSISTENT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS COULD
OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITY. FARTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS COULD
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ONLY SLOWLY OVERNIGHT AND BY
DAYBREAK WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S SOUTH AND ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY FROM TONIGHT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AND REINFORCES THE PRE-EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE EAST/SE OF THE GULF STREAM. IT ALSO KEEPS
THE INLAND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT EXTENDS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE IMPULSE ALOFT ALSO TRIGGERS WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST SOME 250 NM EAST OF SAVANNAH AS IT
MOVES LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL AGAIN BE THE
MAIN FACTOR FOR GENERATING RAINFALL...AS IT INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND POPS ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. WE/LL
START THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG
BEFORE POPS CLIMB INTO THE 30-50 PERCENTILE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE OVER SE GA AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-16 DURING THAT TIME. OVERCAST SKIES AND A CONTINUED FEED OF AIR
FROM THE NORTH/NE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FORCES THE ATLANTIC WAVE TO
DEEPEN A FEW MILLIBARS AS IT LIFTS NE ROUGHLY ALONG THE GULF STREAM
TO A POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN
REINFORCES THE WEDGE INLAND...WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS FOR A FURTHER
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THAT ALONG WITH FORCING FROM THE
UPPER JET OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE COUNTRY AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY ATLANTIC LOW WILL CAUSE COVERAGE OF RAIN
TO EXPAND INTO AT LEAST THE 70-80 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE COVERAGE DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY. PWATS OF 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES AND THE FLOW
ALOFT OPENING MORE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS AT LEAST 1/4
TO 1/2 INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO COULD SUPPORT A
LITTLE ELEVATED CONVECTION. LOW STRATUS DECKS WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME
REDUCTION IN SURFACE VISIBILITIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AND WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
5-10 DEGREE TEMP SWING FROM DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY TO NIGHTTIME LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN A FAIRLY LARGE NORTH/NW TO SOUTH/SE TEMP GRADIENT
MONDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. FURTHER UPSTREAM A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE STARTS TO DIG
THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES...WHICH IN TURN AMPLIFIES THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS BACKS OUR FLOW ALOFT FURTHER TO THE
SW AND OPENS THE DOOR FOR A FEED OF EVEN DEEPER AND TROPICAL-LIKE
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN. PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES SO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE MONDAY NIGHT
THEN SHOULD PEAK IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL QPF
WILL BE AT LEAST 1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES...WITH POTENTIAL HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THIS PATTERN. THE SHORT WAVE IN THE PLAINS WILL ALSO TRIGGER
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION BY TUESDAY...WHICH IN TURN
ATTEMPTS TO LIFT OUR COASTAL WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. NOT SURE HOW THIS
PROGRESSION WILL ACTUAL PAN OUT GIVEN THAT THE INLAND WEDGE WILL BE
RELUCTANT TO GIVE UP ITS HOLD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM ADVECTION TO
BOOST TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 60S...PERHAPS EVEN
HIGHER NEAR THE ALTAMAHA. THIS IN TURN CREATES SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-800 J/KG IN SYNC WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES AND SOUTH OF I-16. IT/S IN
THESE AREAS WHERE WE HAVE ISOLATED T-STORMS MENTIONED IN THE LATEST
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST. WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND IT. A MUCH
QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS THEN ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON
FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH SMALL CHANCES OF LIFR
CIGS OR LOW END MVFR CIGS ON EITHER END. A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND EVEN SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE. LATEST SOUNDINGS AT KSAV SHOW
IFR CIGS MAY REMAIN LOCKED IN THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS RAINFALL
APPEARS LIKELY AND THE WEDGE INVERSION QUITE STRONG. AT KCHS...
MODELS SHOW A DECENT CHANCE THAT CIGS LIFT INTO LOW END MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING TO IFR AGAIN LATE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIMING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AT EITHER TERMINAL IS VERY DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...BASED ON THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND NEAR TERM PROGS
AS WELL AS THE OBSERVATION FROM GRAYS REEF...WE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE GEORGIA WATERS 20-60 NM OFFSHORE. WINDS ALL WATERS
15-20 KT OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER GUSTS 20 NM AND BEYOND WITH SEAS
3-5 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-6 FT OFFSHORE.

SUNDAY...A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE GA COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND A STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NE WINDS OF AT
LEAST 15-20 KT...WITH GUSTS AT TIMES TO NEAR 25 KT. THE SCA WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE GEORGIA OUTER WATERS AND MAY BE NEED OVER PARTS OF
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE ATLANTIC WAVE DEEPENS SOME AS IT
LIFTS NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE HOLDS
FIRM. THE GRADIENT THOUGH DOES SLACKEN SOME OF THE LOW SHIFTS
NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS AND
BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE INLAND WEDGE IS STILL IN PLACE DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT DOES ATTEMPT TO ERODE BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COASTAL WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH/NW. UNTIL THIS
TRANSITION THOUGH OUR WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO VEER AROUND...AS SPEEDS
HOLD NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS ARE LIMITED TO 3 OR 4 FT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FINALLY THE COASTAL WARM FRONT WILL
SHIFT NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND THE RESULTING
MARINE-LAYERING EFFECTS WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE FRONT THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG
ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES MAY SUPPORT GALES...OR AT THE LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT SOME STRONGER
T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER ALL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LOWER BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES AS COLD ADVECTION WANES AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

SEA FOG...LOW STRATUS DECKS COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
INTO TUESDAY. ACTUAL SEA FOG MAY HAVE A WINDOW TO DEVELOP AS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP MID/UPPER 50 SHELF WATER TEMPS
WITHIN A SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
PRIOR TO WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT SOMETIME ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...GIVEN
THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AN INCREASING
RISK FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME
OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. THIS SITUATION MIGHT BE FURTHER EXACERBATED
DUE TO STEADY RAINS PRIOR TO AND DURING THE HIGH TIDAL CYCLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 210619
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
119 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

THE WEDGE REGIME STRATUS COULD PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE AND COULD
LOWER TOWARD THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT FOG OVERNIGHT. NEAR THE
COAST...PERSISTENT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS COULD
OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITY. FARTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS COULD
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ONLY SLOWLY OVERNIGHT AND BY
DAYBREAK WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S SOUTH AND ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY FROM TONIGHT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AND REINFORCES THE PRE-EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE EAST/SE OF THE GULF STREAM. IT ALSO KEEPS
THE INLAND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT EXTENDS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE IMPULSE ALOFT ALSO TRIGGERS WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST SOME 250 NM EAST OF SAVANNAH AS IT
MOVES LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL AGAIN BE THE
MAIN FACTOR FOR GENERATING RAINFALL...AS IT INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND POPS ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. WE/LL
START THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG
BEFORE POPS CLIMB INTO THE 30-50 PERCENTILE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE OVER SE GA AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-16 DURING THAT TIME. OVERCAST SKIES AND A CONTINUED FEED OF AIR
FROM THE NORTH/NE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FORCES THE ATLANTIC WAVE TO
DEEPEN A FEW MILLIBARS AS IT LIFTS NE ROUGHLY ALONG THE GULF STREAM
TO A POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN
REINFORCES THE WEDGE INLAND...WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS FOR A FURTHER
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THAT ALONG WITH FORCING FROM THE
UPPER JET OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE COUNTRY AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY ATLANTIC LOW WILL CAUSE COVERAGE OF RAIN
TO EXPAND INTO AT LEAST THE 70-80 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE COVERAGE DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY. PWATS OF 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES AND THE FLOW
ALOFT OPENING MORE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS AT LEAST 1/4
TO 1/2 INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO COULD SUPPORT A
LITTLE ELEVATED CONVECTION. LOW STRATUS DECKS WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME
REDUCTION IN SURFACE VISIBILITIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AND WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
5-10 DEGREE TEMP SWING FROM DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY TO NIGHTTIME LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN A FAIRLY LARGE NORTH/NW TO SOUTH/SE TEMP GRADIENT
MONDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. FURTHER UPSTREAM A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE STARTS TO DIG
THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES...WHICH IN TURN AMPLIFIES THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS BACKS OUR FLOW ALOFT FURTHER TO THE
SW AND OPENS THE DOOR FOR A FEED OF EVEN DEEPER AND TROPICAL-LIKE
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN. PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES SO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE MONDAY NIGHT
THEN SHOULD PEAK IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL QPF
WILL BE AT LEAST 1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES...WITH POTENTIAL HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THIS PATTERN. THE SHORT WAVE IN THE PLAINS WILL ALSO TRIGGER
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION BY TUESDAY...WHICH IN TURN
ATTEMPTS TO LIFT OUR COASTAL WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. NOT SURE HOW THIS
PROGRESSION WILL ACTUAL PAN OUT GIVEN THAT THE INLAND WEDGE WILL BE
RELUCTANT TO GIVE UP ITS HOLD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM ADVECTION TO
BOOST TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 60S...PERHAPS EVEN
HIGHER NEAR THE ALTAMAHA. THIS IN TURN CREATES SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-800 J/KG IN SYNC WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES AND SOUTH OF I-16. IT/S IN
THESE AREAS WHERE WE HAVE ISOLATED T-STORMS MENTIONED IN THE LATEST
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST. WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND IT. A MUCH
QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS THEN ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON
FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH SMALL CHANCES OF LIFR
CIGS OR LOW END MVFR CIGS ON EITHER END. A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND EVEN SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE. LATEST SOUNDINGS AT KSAV SHOW
IFR CIGS MAY REMAIN LOCKED IN THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS RAINFALL
APPEARS LIKELY AND THE WEDGE INVERSION QUITE STRONG. AT KCHS...
MODELS SHOW A DECENT CHANCE THAT CIGS LIFT INTO LOW END MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING TO IFR AGAIN LATE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIMING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AT EITHER TERMINAL IS VERY DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...BASED ON THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND NEAR TERM PROGS
AS WELL AS THE OBSERVATION FROM GRAYS REEF...WE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE GEORGIA WATERS 20-60 NM OFFSHORE. WINDS ALL WATERS
15-20 KT OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER GUSTS 20 NM AND BEYOND WITH SEAS
3-5 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-6 FT OFFSHORE.

SUNDAY...A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE GA COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND A STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NE WINDS OF AT
LEAST 15-20 KT...WITH GUSTS AT TIMES TO NEAR 25 KT. THE SCA WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE GEORGIA OUTER WATERS AND MAY BE NEED OVER PARTS OF
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE ATLANTIC WAVE DEEPENS SOME AS IT
LIFTS NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE HOLDS
FIRM. THE GRADIENT THOUGH DOES SLACKEN SOME OF THE LOW SHIFTS
NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS AND
BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE INLAND WEDGE IS STILL IN PLACE DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT DOES ATTEMPT TO ERODE BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COASTAL WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH/NW. UNTIL THIS
TRANSITION THOUGH OUR WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO VEER AROUND...AS SPEEDS
HOLD NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS ARE LIMITED TO 3 OR 4 FT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FINALLY THE COASTAL WARM FRONT WILL
SHIFT NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND THE RESULTING
MARINE-LAYERING EFFECTS WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE FRONT THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG
ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES MAY SUPPORT GALES...OR AT THE LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT SOME STRONGER
T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER ALL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LOWER BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES AS COLD ADVECTION WANES AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

SEA FOG...LOW STRATUS DECKS COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
INTO TUESDAY. ACTUAL SEA FOG MAY HAVE A WINDOW TO DEVELOP AS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP MID/UPPER 50 SHELF WATER TEMPS
WITHIN A SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
PRIOR TO WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT SOMETIME ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...GIVEN
THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AN INCREASING
RISK FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME
OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. THIS SITUATION MIGHT BE FURTHER EXACERBATED
DUE TO STEADY RAINS PRIOR TO AND DURING THE HIGH TIDAL CYCLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 210619
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
119 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

THE WEDGE REGIME STRATUS COULD PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE AND COULD
LOWER TOWARD THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT FOG OVERNIGHT. NEAR THE
COAST...PERSISTENT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS COULD
OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITY. FARTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS COULD
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ONLY SLOWLY OVERNIGHT AND BY
DAYBREAK WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S SOUTH AND ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY FROM TONIGHT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AND REINFORCES THE PRE-EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE EAST/SE OF THE GULF STREAM. IT ALSO KEEPS
THE INLAND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT EXTENDS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE IMPULSE ALOFT ALSO TRIGGERS WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST SOME 250 NM EAST OF SAVANNAH AS IT
MOVES LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL AGAIN BE THE
MAIN FACTOR FOR GENERATING RAINFALL...AS IT INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND POPS ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. WE/LL
START THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG
BEFORE POPS CLIMB INTO THE 30-50 PERCENTILE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE OVER SE GA AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-16 DURING THAT TIME. OVERCAST SKIES AND A CONTINUED FEED OF AIR
FROM THE NORTH/NE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FORCES THE ATLANTIC WAVE TO
DEEPEN A FEW MILLIBARS AS IT LIFTS NE ROUGHLY ALONG THE GULF STREAM
TO A POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN
REINFORCES THE WEDGE INLAND...WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS FOR A FURTHER
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THAT ALONG WITH FORCING FROM THE
UPPER JET OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE COUNTRY AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY ATLANTIC LOW WILL CAUSE COVERAGE OF RAIN
TO EXPAND INTO AT LEAST THE 70-80 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE COVERAGE DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY. PWATS OF 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES AND THE FLOW
ALOFT OPENING MORE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS AT LEAST 1/4
TO 1/2 INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO COULD SUPPORT A
LITTLE ELEVATED CONVECTION. LOW STRATUS DECKS WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME
REDUCTION IN SURFACE VISIBILITIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AND WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
5-10 DEGREE TEMP SWING FROM DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY TO NIGHTTIME LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN A FAIRLY LARGE NORTH/NW TO SOUTH/SE TEMP GRADIENT
MONDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. FURTHER UPSTREAM A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE STARTS TO DIG
THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES...WHICH IN TURN AMPLIFIES THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS BACKS OUR FLOW ALOFT FURTHER TO THE
SW AND OPENS THE DOOR FOR A FEED OF EVEN DEEPER AND TROPICAL-LIKE
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN. PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES SO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE MONDAY NIGHT
THEN SHOULD PEAK IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL QPF
WILL BE AT LEAST 1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES...WITH POTENTIAL HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THIS PATTERN. THE SHORT WAVE IN THE PLAINS WILL ALSO TRIGGER
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION BY TUESDAY...WHICH IN TURN
ATTEMPTS TO LIFT OUR COASTAL WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. NOT SURE HOW THIS
PROGRESSION WILL ACTUAL PAN OUT GIVEN THAT THE INLAND WEDGE WILL BE
RELUCTANT TO GIVE UP ITS HOLD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM ADVECTION TO
BOOST TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 60S...PERHAPS EVEN
HIGHER NEAR THE ALTAMAHA. THIS IN TURN CREATES SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-800 J/KG IN SYNC WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES AND SOUTH OF I-16. IT/S IN
THESE AREAS WHERE WE HAVE ISOLATED T-STORMS MENTIONED IN THE LATEST
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST. WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND IT. A MUCH
QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS THEN ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON
FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH SMALL CHANCES OF LIFR
CIGS OR LOW END MVFR CIGS ON EITHER END. A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND EVEN SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE. LATEST SOUNDINGS AT KSAV SHOW
IFR CIGS MAY REMAIN LOCKED IN THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS RAINFALL
APPEARS LIKELY AND THE WEDGE INVERSION QUITE STRONG. AT KCHS...
MODELS SHOW A DECENT CHANCE THAT CIGS LIFT INTO LOW END MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING TO IFR AGAIN LATE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
TIMING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AT EITHER TERMINAL IS VERY DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...BASED ON THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND NEAR TERM PROGS
AS WELL AS THE OBSERVATION FROM GRAYS REEF...WE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE GEORGIA WATERS 20-60 NM OFFSHORE. WINDS ALL WATERS
15-20 KT OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER GUSTS 20 NM AND BEYOND WITH SEAS
3-5 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-6 FT OFFSHORE.

SUNDAY...A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE GA COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND A STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NE WINDS OF AT
LEAST 15-20 KT...WITH GUSTS AT TIMES TO NEAR 25 KT. THE SCA WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE GEORGIA OUTER WATERS AND MAY BE NEED OVER PARTS OF
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE ATLANTIC WAVE DEEPENS SOME AS IT
LIFTS NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE HOLDS
FIRM. THE GRADIENT THOUGH DOES SLACKEN SOME OF THE LOW SHIFTS
NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS AND
BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE INLAND WEDGE IS STILL IN PLACE DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT DOES ATTEMPT TO ERODE BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COASTAL WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH/NW. UNTIL THIS
TRANSITION THOUGH OUR WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO VEER AROUND...AS SPEEDS
HOLD NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS ARE LIMITED TO 3 OR 4 FT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FINALLY THE COASTAL WARM FRONT WILL
SHIFT NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND THE RESULTING
MARINE-LAYERING EFFECTS WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE FRONT THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG
ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES MAY SUPPORT GALES...OR AT THE LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT SOME STRONGER
T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER ALL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LOWER BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES AS COLD ADVECTION WANES AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

SEA FOG...LOW STRATUS DECKS COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
INTO TUESDAY. ACTUAL SEA FOG MAY HAVE A WINDOW TO DEVELOP AS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP MID/UPPER 50 SHELF WATER TEMPS
WITHIN A SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
PRIOR TO WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT SOMETIME ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...GIVEN
THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AN INCREASING
RISK FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME
OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. THIS SITUATION MIGHT BE FURTHER EXACERBATED
DUE TO STEADY RAINS PRIOR TO AND DURING THE HIGH TIDAL CYCLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 210331
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1031 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND WEDGE LIKE CONDITIONS COVERING MUCH OF THE
REGION CURRENTLY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VLLY...WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF
WHICH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RECOMMENCE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
FA AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF S GA...WHICH LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING
NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH A LIGHT NE WIND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO  THE MS
VALLEY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. DURING THE PERIOD...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH AS THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG SUNDAY MORNING WITH
POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM S TO N EXPECT A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN POPS. POPS GO FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY TO CATEGORICAL
BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LITTLE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD JUST BELOW CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS AND JUST ABOVE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE VIGOROUS S/W WILL DIG A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY BY MID WEEK AS MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE
UPPER PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1.5
INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
A WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MODELS INDICATE
THIS FEATURE HOLDING INTO TUESDAY. HAVE TRENDED WITH LOWER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ECMWF/GFS/NAM INDICATE NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS LIFT THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY RISE SLOWLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS
FROM NE AND E TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF THE SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER ISENTROPIC LIFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
AN INCREASING WIND FIELD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
SHOWS A 50 TO 60 KT H8 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DELAY OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AREA BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BY WEDNESDAY HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO EXPECT INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE INCREASING SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF A SMALL
POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN
RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SATELLITE AND AREA WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOW A COMPLEX SCENARIO
UNFOLDING ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR APPROACHING CAE/CUB
FROM THE NORTH...WHILE LOWER CIGS AND FOG SURROUND AGS/DNL. AS THE
MOISTURE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR AT AGS/DNL/OGB
WITH DRIER AIR KEEPING MVFR CIGS AT CAE/CUB. WITH IFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT AT AGS/DNL/OGB DENSE FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT ALL SITES AROUND 13Z WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AROUND 16Z AGS/DNL/OGB...20Z CAE/CUB...AS SHOWERS BEGIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS CROSS THE REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 210331
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1031 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND WEDGE LIKE CONDITIONS COVERING MUCH OF THE
REGION CURRENTLY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VLLY...WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF
WHICH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RECOMMENCE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
FA AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF S GA...WHICH LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING
NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH A LIGHT NE WIND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO  THE MS
VALLEY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. DURING THE PERIOD...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH AS THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG SUNDAY MORNING WITH
POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM S TO N EXPECT A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN POPS. POPS GO FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY TO CATEGORICAL
BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LITTLE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD JUST BELOW CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS AND JUST ABOVE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE VIGOROUS S/W WILL DIG A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY BY MID WEEK AS MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE
UPPER PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1.5
INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
A WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MODELS INDICATE
THIS FEATURE HOLDING INTO TUESDAY. HAVE TRENDED WITH LOWER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ECMWF/GFS/NAM INDICATE NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS LIFT THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY RISE SLOWLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS
FROM NE AND E TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF THE SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER ISENTROPIC LIFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
AN INCREASING WIND FIELD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
SHOWS A 50 TO 60 KT H8 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DELAY OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AREA BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BY WEDNESDAY HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO EXPECT INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE INCREASING SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF A SMALL
POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN
RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SATELLITE AND AREA WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOW A COMPLEX SCENARIO
UNFOLDING ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR APPROACHING CAE/CUB
FROM THE NORTH...WHILE LOWER CIGS AND FOG SURROUND AGS/DNL. AS THE
MOISTURE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR AT AGS/DNL/OGB
WITH DRIER AIR KEEPING MVFR CIGS AT CAE/CUB. WITH IFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT AT AGS/DNL/OGB DENSE FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT ALL SITES AROUND 13Z WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AROUND 16Z AGS/DNL/OGB...20Z CAE/CUB...AS SHOWERS BEGIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS CROSS THE REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 210331
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1031 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND WEDGE LIKE CONDITIONS COVERING MUCH OF THE
REGION CURRENTLY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VLLY...WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF
WHICH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RECOMMENCE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
FA AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF S GA...WHICH LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING
NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH A LIGHT NE WIND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO  THE MS
VALLEY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. DURING THE PERIOD...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH AS THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG SUNDAY MORNING WITH
POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM S TO N EXPECT A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN POPS. POPS GO FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY TO CATEGORICAL
BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LITTLE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD JUST BELOW CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS AND JUST ABOVE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE VIGOROUS S/W WILL DIG A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY BY MID WEEK AS MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE
UPPER PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1.5
INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
A WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MODELS INDICATE
THIS FEATURE HOLDING INTO TUESDAY. HAVE TRENDED WITH LOWER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ECMWF/GFS/NAM INDICATE NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS LIFT THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY RISE SLOWLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS
FROM NE AND E TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF THE SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER ISENTROPIC LIFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
AN INCREASING WIND FIELD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
SHOWS A 50 TO 60 KT H8 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DELAY OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AREA BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BY WEDNESDAY HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO EXPECT INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE INCREASING SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF A SMALL
POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN
RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SATELLITE AND AREA WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOW A COMPLEX SCENARIO
UNFOLDING ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR APPROACHING CAE/CUB
FROM THE NORTH...WHILE LOWER CIGS AND FOG SURROUND AGS/DNL. AS THE
MOISTURE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR AT AGS/DNL/OGB
WITH DRIER AIR KEEPING MVFR CIGS AT CAE/CUB. WITH IFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT AT AGS/DNL/OGB DENSE FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT ALL SITES AROUND 13Z WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AROUND 16Z AGS/DNL/OGB...20Z CAE/CUB...AS SHOWERS BEGIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS CROSS THE REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 210331
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1031 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND WEDGE LIKE CONDITIONS COVERING MUCH OF THE
REGION CURRENTLY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VLLY...WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF
WHICH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RECOMMENCE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
FA AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF S GA...WHICH LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING
NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH A LIGHT NE WIND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO  THE MS
VALLEY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. DURING THE PERIOD...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH AS THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG SUNDAY MORNING WITH
POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM S TO N EXPECT A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN POPS. POPS GO FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY TO CATEGORICAL
BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LITTLE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD JUST BELOW CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS AND JUST ABOVE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE VIGOROUS S/W WILL DIG A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY BY MID WEEK AS MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE
UPPER PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1.5
INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
A WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MODELS INDICATE
THIS FEATURE HOLDING INTO TUESDAY. HAVE TRENDED WITH LOWER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ECMWF/GFS/NAM INDICATE NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS LIFT THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY RISE SLOWLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS
FROM NE AND E TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF THE SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER ISENTROPIC LIFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
AN INCREASING WIND FIELD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
SHOWS A 50 TO 60 KT H8 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DELAY OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AREA BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BY WEDNESDAY HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO EXPECT INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE INCREASING SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF A SMALL
POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN
RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SATELLITE AND AREA WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOW A COMPLEX SCENARIO
UNFOLDING ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR APPROACHING CAE/CUB
FROM THE NORTH...WHILE LOWER CIGS AND FOG SURROUND AGS/DNL. AS THE
MOISTURE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR AT AGS/DNL/OGB
WITH DRIER AIR KEEPING MVFR CIGS AT CAE/CUB. WITH IFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT AT AGS/DNL/OGB DENSE FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT ALL SITES AROUND 13Z WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AROUND 16Z AGS/DNL/OGB...20Z CAE/CUB...AS SHOWERS BEGIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS CROSS THE REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 210331
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1031 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND WEDGE LIKE CONDITIONS COVERING MUCH OF THE
REGION CURRENTLY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VLLY...WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF
WHICH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RECOMMENCE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
FA AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF S GA...WHICH LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING
NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH A LIGHT NE WIND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO  THE MS
VALLEY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. DURING THE PERIOD...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH AS THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG SUNDAY MORNING WITH
POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM S TO N EXPECT A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN POPS. POPS GO FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY TO CATEGORICAL
BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LITTLE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD JUST BELOW CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS AND JUST ABOVE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE VIGOROUS S/W WILL DIG A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY BY MID WEEK AS MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE
UPPER PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1.5
INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
A WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MODELS INDICATE
THIS FEATURE HOLDING INTO TUESDAY. HAVE TRENDED WITH LOWER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ECMWF/GFS/NAM INDICATE NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS LIFT THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY RISE SLOWLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS
FROM NE AND E TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF THE SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER ISENTROPIC LIFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
AN INCREASING WIND FIELD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
SHOWS A 50 TO 60 KT H8 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DELAY OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AREA BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BY WEDNESDAY HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO EXPECT INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE INCREASING SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF A SMALL
POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN
RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SATELLITE AND AREA WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOW A COMPLEX SCENARIO
UNFOLDING ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR APPROACHING CAE/CUB
FROM THE NORTH...WHILE LOWER CIGS AND FOG SURROUND AGS/DNL. AS THE
MOISTURE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR AT AGS/DNL/OGB
WITH DRIER AIR KEEPING MVFR CIGS AT CAE/CUB. WITH IFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT AT AGS/DNL/OGB DENSE FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT ALL SITES AROUND 13Z WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AROUND 16Z AGS/DNL/OGB...20Z CAE/CUB...AS SHOWERS BEGIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS CROSS THE REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 210331
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1031 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND WEDGE LIKE CONDITIONS COVERING MUCH OF THE
REGION CURRENTLY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VLLY...WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF
WHICH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RECOMMENCE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
FA AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF S GA...WHICH LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING
NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH A LIGHT NE WIND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO  THE MS
VALLEY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. DURING THE PERIOD...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH AS THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG SUNDAY MORNING WITH
POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM S TO N EXPECT A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN POPS. POPS GO FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY TO CATEGORICAL
BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LITTLE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD JUST BELOW CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS AND JUST ABOVE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE VIGOROUS S/W WILL DIG A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY BY MID WEEK AS MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE
UPPER PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1.5
INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
A WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MODELS INDICATE
THIS FEATURE HOLDING INTO TUESDAY. HAVE TRENDED WITH LOWER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ECMWF/GFS/NAM INDICATE NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS LIFT THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY RISE SLOWLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS
FROM NE AND E TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF THE SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER ISENTROPIC LIFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
AN INCREASING WIND FIELD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
SHOWS A 50 TO 60 KT H8 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DELAY OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AREA BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BY WEDNESDAY HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO EXPECT INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE INCREASING SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF A SMALL
POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN
RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SATELLITE AND AREA WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOW A COMPLEX SCENARIO
UNFOLDING ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR APPROACHING CAE/CUB
FROM THE NORTH...WHILE LOWER CIGS AND FOG SURROUND AGS/DNL. AS THE
MOISTURE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR AT AGS/DNL/OGB
WITH DRIER AIR KEEPING MVFR CIGS AT CAE/CUB. WITH IFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT AT AGS/DNL/OGB DENSE FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT ALL SITES AROUND 13Z WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AROUND 16Z AGS/DNL/OGB...20Z CAE/CUB...AS SHOWERS BEGIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS CROSS THE REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 210331
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1031 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND WEDGE LIKE CONDITIONS COVERING MUCH OF THE
REGION CURRENTLY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VLLY...WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF
WHICH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RECOMMENCE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
FA AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF S GA...WHICH LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING
NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH A LIGHT NE WIND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO  THE MS
VALLEY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. DURING THE PERIOD...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH AS THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG SUNDAY MORNING WITH
POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM S TO N EXPECT A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN POPS. POPS GO FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY TO CATEGORICAL
BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LITTLE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD JUST BELOW CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS AND JUST ABOVE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE VIGOROUS S/W WILL DIG A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY BY MID WEEK AS MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE
UPPER PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1.5
INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
A WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MODELS INDICATE
THIS FEATURE HOLDING INTO TUESDAY. HAVE TRENDED WITH LOWER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ECMWF/GFS/NAM INDICATE NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS LIFT THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY RISE SLOWLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS
FROM NE AND E TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF THE SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER ISENTROPIC LIFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
AN INCREASING WIND FIELD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
SHOWS A 50 TO 60 KT H8 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DELAY OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AREA BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BY WEDNESDAY HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO EXPECT INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE INCREASING SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF A SMALL
POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN
RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SATELLITE AND AREA WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOW A COMPLEX SCENARIO
UNFOLDING ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR APPROACHING CAE/CUB
FROM THE NORTH...WHILE LOWER CIGS AND FOG SURROUND AGS/DNL. AS THE
MOISTURE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR AT AGS/DNL/OGB
WITH DRIER AIR KEEPING MVFR CIGS AT CAE/CUB. WITH IFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT AT AGS/DNL/OGB DENSE FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT ALL SITES AROUND 13Z WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AROUND 16Z AGS/DNL/OGB...20Z CAE/CUB...AS SHOWERS BEGIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS CROSS THE REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 210331
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1031 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND WEDGE LIKE CONDITIONS COVERING MUCH OF THE
REGION CURRENTLY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VLLY...WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF
WHICH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RECOMMENCE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
FA AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF S GA...WHICH LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING
NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH A LIGHT NE WIND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO  THE MS
VALLEY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. DURING THE PERIOD...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH AS THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG SUNDAY MORNING WITH
POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM S TO N EXPECT A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN POPS. POPS GO FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY TO CATEGORICAL
BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LITTLE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD JUST BELOW CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS AND JUST ABOVE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE VIGOROUS S/W WILL DIG A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY BY MID WEEK AS MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE
UPPER PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1.5
INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
A WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MODELS INDICATE
THIS FEATURE HOLDING INTO TUESDAY. HAVE TRENDED WITH LOWER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ECMWF/GFS/NAM INDICATE NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS LIFT THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY RISE SLOWLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS
FROM NE AND E TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF THE SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER ISENTROPIC LIFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
AN INCREASING WIND FIELD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
SHOWS A 50 TO 60 KT H8 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DELAY OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AREA BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BY WEDNESDAY HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO EXPECT INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE INCREASING SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF A SMALL
POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN
RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SATELLITE AND AREA WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOW A COMPLEX SCENARIO
UNFOLDING ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR APPROACHING CAE/CUB
FROM THE NORTH...WHILE LOWER CIGS AND FOG SURROUND AGS/DNL. AS THE
MOISTURE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR AT AGS/DNL/OGB
WITH DRIER AIR KEEPING MVFR CIGS AT CAE/CUB. WITH IFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT AT AGS/DNL/OGB DENSE FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT ALL SITES AROUND 13Z WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AROUND 16Z AGS/DNL/OGB...20Z CAE/CUB...AS SHOWERS BEGIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS CROSS THE REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCHS 210312
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1012 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATE SATURDAY EVENING...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA RADAR TRENDS
CONTINUED TO DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN EJECTING ENE TOWARD THE AREA. INITIALLY...
POPS GRADUATED FROM HIGH CHANCE ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 TO
BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL SUFFICE AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR HAS TEMPORARILY OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS
SHOWN BY THE 00Z KCHS SOUNDING AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ALSO...
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION THUS FAR
HAS REMAINED LIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MODEL
CONSENSUS INCLUDING RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL INCREASE. ACCORDINGLY...RAMPED UP POPS
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY TAPERED FROM LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL COUNTIES TO CHANCE INLAND. GIVEN THE MOST
RECENT RUC13 AND HRRR GUIDANCE...LIGHT RAIN YET BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN INDICATED WITHIN THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...AND
HIGHER POPS COULD BE REQUIRED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

MEANWHILE...WITHIN THE WEDGE REGIME STRATUS COULD PRODUCE SOME
DRIZZLE AND COULD LOWER TOWARD THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT FOG
OVERNIGHT. NEAR THE COAST...PERSISTENT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CEILINGS COULD OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITY.
FARTHER INLAND...SLIGHTLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS
COULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ONLY SLOWLY OVERNIGHT AND BY
DAYBREAK WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S SOUTH AND ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY FROM TONIGHT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AND REINFORCES THE PRE-EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE EAST/SE OF THE GULF STREAM. IT ALSO KEEPS
THE INLAND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT EXTENDS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE IMPULSE ALOFT ALSO TRIGGERS WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST SOME 250 NM EAST OF SAVANNAH AS IT
MOVES LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL AGAIN BE THE
MAIN FACTOR FOR GENERATING RAINFALL...AS IT INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND POPS ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. WE/LL
START THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG
BEFORE POPS CLIMB INTO THE 30-50 PERCENTILE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE OVER SE GA AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-16 DURING THAT TIME. OVERCAST SKIES AND A CONTINUED FEED OF AIR
FROM THE NORTH/NE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FORCES THE ATLANTIC WAVE TO
DEEPEN A FEW MILLIBARS AS IT LIFTS NE ROUGHLY ALONG THE GULF STREAM
TO A POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN
REINFORCES THE WEDGE INLAND...WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS FOR A FURTHER
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THAT ALONG WITH FORCING FROM THE
UPPER JET OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE COUNTRY AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY ATLANTIC LOW WILL CAUSE COVERAGE OF RAIN
TO EXPAND INTO AT LEAST THE 70-80 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE COVERAGE DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EST ON MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY. PWATS OF 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES AND THE FLOW
ALOFT OPENING MORE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS AT LEAST 1/4
TO 1/2 INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO COULD SUPPORT A
LITTLE ELEVATED CONVECTION. LOW STRATUS DECKS WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME
REDUCTION IN SURFACE VISIBILITIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AND WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
5-10 DEGREE TEMP SWING FROM DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY TO NIGHTTIME LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN A FAIRLY LARGE NORTH/NW TO SOUTH/SE TEMP GRADIENT
MONDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. FURTHER UPSTREAM A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE STARTS TO DIG
THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES...WHICH IN TURN AMPLIFIES THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS BACKS OUR FLOW ALOFT FURTHER TO THE
SW AND OPENS THE DOOR FOR A FEED OF EVEN DEEPER AND TROPICAL-LIKE
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN. PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES SO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE MONDAY NIGHT
THEN SHOULD PEAK IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL QPF
WILL BE AT LEAST 1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES...WITH POTENTIAL HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THIS PATTERN. THE SHORT WAVE IN THE PLAINS WILL ALSO TRIGGER
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION BY TUESDAY...WHICH IN TURN
ATTEMPTS TO LIFT OUR COASTAL WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. NOT SURE HOW THIS
PROGRESSION WILL ACTUAL PAN OUT GIVEN THAT THE INLAND WEDGE WILL BE
RELUCTANT TO GIVE UP ITS HOLD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM ADVECTION TO
BOOST TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 60S...PERHAPS EVEN
HIGHER NEAR THE ALTAMAHA. THIS IN TURN CREATES SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-800 J/KG IN SYNC WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES AND SOUTH OF I-16. IT/S IN
THESE AREAS WHERE WE HAVE ISOLATED T-STORMS MENTIONED IN THE LATEST
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST. WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND IT. A MUCH
QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS THEN ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON
FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DO NOT EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT BEYOND MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE TIME THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PREVALENCE OF LIGHT RAIN REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS ADDITIONAL WAVES PUSH E/NE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY. HIGHEST POPS SHOULD OCCUR AT KSAV
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH RAIN COULD EXPAND INTO THE KCHS AREA. EVEN IF A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOULD COMMENCE AT BOTH SITES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...MARINE LAYER MIXING AND A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED NORTHEAST
WINDS...AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT...AND ASSOCIATED SEAS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. OVERALL...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY...A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE GA COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND A STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NE WINDS OF AT
LEAST 15-20 KT...WITH GUSTS AT TIMES TO NEAR 25 KT. IF THE GUSTS
BECOME FREQUENT ENOUGH WE/D NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH
WE/LL DEFER TO FUTURE SHIFTS TO SEE IF WE INDEED SHOULD HOIST THE
ADVISORY HEADLINE. THE FETCH IS FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR SEAS TO BE AS
HIGH AS 3-5 FT...GREATEST OVER AMZ374 AND THE EASTERNMOST PARTS OF
AMZ350.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE ATLANTIC WAVE DEEPENS SOME AS IT LIFTS
NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE HOLDS FIRM. THE
GRADIENT THOUGH DOES SLACKEN SOME OF THE LOW SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS AND BELOW ANY
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE INLAND WEDGE IS STILL IN PLACE DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT DOES ATTEMPT TO ERODE BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COASTAL WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH/NW. UNTIL THIS
TRANSITION THOUGH OUR WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO VEER AROUND...AS SPEEDS
HOLD NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS ARE LIMITED TO 3 OR 4 FT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FINALLY THE COASTAL WARM FRONT WILL
SHIFT NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND THE RESULTING
MARINE-LAYERING EFFECTS WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE FRONT THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG
ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES MAY SUPPORT GALES...OR AT THE LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT SOME STRONGER
T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER ALL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LOWER BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES AS COLD ADVECTION WANES AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

SEA FOG...LOW STRATUS DECKS COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
INTO TUESDAY. ACTUAL SEA FOG MAY HAVE A WINDOW TO DEVELOP AS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP MID/UPPER 50 SHELF WATER TEMPS
WITHIN A SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
PRIOR TO WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT WEDNESDAY. NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...GIVEN
THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AN INCREASING
RISK FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME
OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. THIS SITUATION MIGHT BE FURTHER EXACERBATED
DUE TO STEADY RAINS PRIOR TO AND DURING THE HIGH TIDAL CYCLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...33/SPR
MARINE...33/SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 210312
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1012 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATE SATURDAY EVENING...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA RADAR TRENDS
CONTINUED TO DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN EJECTING ENE TOWARD THE AREA. INITIALLY...
POPS GRADUATED FROM HIGH CHANCE ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 TO
BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL SUFFICE AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR HAS TEMPORARILY OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS
SHOWN BY THE 00Z KCHS SOUNDING AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ALSO...
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION THUS FAR
HAS REMAINED LIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MODEL
CONSENSUS INCLUDING RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL INCREASE. ACCORDINGLY...RAMPED UP POPS
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY TAPERED FROM LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL COUNTIES TO CHANCE INLAND. GIVEN THE MOST
RECENT RUC13 AND HRRR GUIDANCE...LIGHT RAIN YET BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN INDICATED WITHIN THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...AND
HIGHER POPS COULD BE REQUIRED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

MEANWHILE...WITHIN THE WEDGE REGIME STRATUS COULD PRODUCE SOME
DRIZZLE AND COULD LOWER TOWARD THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT FOG
OVERNIGHT. NEAR THE COAST...PERSISTENT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CEILINGS COULD OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITY.
FARTHER INLAND...SLIGHTLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS
COULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ONLY SLOWLY OVERNIGHT AND BY
DAYBREAK WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S SOUTH AND ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY FROM TONIGHT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AND REINFORCES THE PRE-EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE EAST/SE OF THE GULF STREAM. IT ALSO KEEPS
THE INLAND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT EXTENDS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE IMPULSE ALOFT ALSO TRIGGERS WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST SOME 250 NM EAST OF SAVANNAH AS IT
MOVES LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL AGAIN BE THE
MAIN FACTOR FOR GENERATING RAINFALL...AS IT INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND POPS ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. WE/LL
START THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG
BEFORE POPS CLIMB INTO THE 30-50 PERCENTILE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE OVER SE GA AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-16 DURING THAT TIME. OVERCAST SKIES AND A CONTINUED FEED OF AIR
FROM THE NORTH/NE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FORCES THE ATLANTIC WAVE TO
DEEPEN A FEW MILLIBARS AS IT LIFTS NE ROUGHLY ALONG THE GULF STREAM
TO A POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN
REINFORCES THE WEDGE INLAND...WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS FOR A FURTHER
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THAT ALONG WITH FORCING FROM THE
UPPER JET OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE COUNTRY AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY ATLANTIC LOW WILL CAUSE COVERAGE OF RAIN
TO EXPAND INTO AT LEAST THE 70-80 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE COVERAGE DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EST ON MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY. PWATS OF 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES AND THE FLOW
ALOFT OPENING MORE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS AT LEAST 1/4
TO 1/2 INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO COULD SUPPORT A
LITTLE ELEVATED CONVECTION. LOW STRATUS DECKS WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME
REDUCTION IN SURFACE VISIBILITIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AND WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
5-10 DEGREE TEMP SWING FROM DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY TO NIGHTTIME LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN A FAIRLY LARGE NORTH/NW TO SOUTH/SE TEMP GRADIENT
MONDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. FURTHER UPSTREAM A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE STARTS TO DIG
THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES...WHICH IN TURN AMPLIFIES THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS BACKS OUR FLOW ALOFT FURTHER TO THE
SW AND OPENS THE DOOR FOR A FEED OF EVEN DEEPER AND TROPICAL-LIKE
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN. PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES SO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE MONDAY NIGHT
THEN SHOULD PEAK IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL QPF
WILL BE AT LEAST 1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES...WITH POTENTIAL HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THIS PATTERN. THE SHORT WAVE IN THE PLAINS WILL ALSO TRIGGER
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION BY TUESDAY...WHICH IN TURN
ATTEMPTS TO LIFT OUR COASTAL WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. NOT SURE HOW THIS
PROGRESSION WILL ACTUAL PAN OUT GIVEN THAT THE INLAND WEDGE WILL BE
RELUCTANT TO GIVE UP ITS HOLD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM ADVECTION TO
BOOST TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 60S...PERHAPS EVEN
HIGHER NEAR THE ALTAMAHA. THIS IN TURN CREATES SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-800 J/KG IN SYNC WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES AND SOUTH OF I-16. IT/S IN
THESE AREAS WHERE WE HAVE ISOLATED T-STORMS MENTIONED IN THE LATEST
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST. WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND IT. A MUCH
QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS THEN ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON
FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DO NOT EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT BEYOND MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE TIME THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PREVALENCE OF LIGHT RAIN REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS ADDITIONAL WAVES PUSH E/NE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY. HIGHEST POPS SHOULD OCCUR AT KSAV
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH RAIN COULD EXPAND INTO THE KCHS AREA. EVEN IF A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOULD COMMENCE AT BOTH SITES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...MARINE LAYER MIXING AND A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED NORTHEAST
WINDS...AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT...AND ASSOCIATED SEAS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. OVERALL...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY...A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE GA COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND A STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NE WINDS OF AT
LEAST 15-20 KT...WITH GUSTS AT TIMES TO NEAR 25 KT. IF THE GUSTS
BECOME FREQUENT ENOUGH WE/D NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH
WE/LL DEFER TO FUTURE SHIFTS TO SEE IF WE INDEED SHOULD HOIST THE
ADVISORY HEADLINE. THE FETCH IS FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR SEAS TO BE AS
HIGH AS 3-5 FT...GREATEST OVER AMZ374 AND THE EASTERNMOST PARTS OF
AMZ350.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE ATLANTIC WAVE DEEPENS SOME AS IT LIFTS
NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE HOLDS FIRM. THE
GRADIENT THOUGH DOES SLACKEN SOME OF THE LOW SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS AND BELOW ANY
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE INLAND WEDGE IS STILL IN PLACE DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT DOES ATTEMPT TO ERODE BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COASTAL WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH/NW. UNTIL THIS
TRANSITION THOUGH OUR WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO VEER AROUND...AS SPEEDS
HOLD NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS ARE LIMITED TO 3 OR 4 FT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FINALLY THE COASTAL WARM FRONT WILL
SHIFT NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND THE RESULTING
MARINE-LAYERING EFFECTS WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE FRONT THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG
ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES MAY SUPPORT GALES...OR AT THE LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT SOME STRONGER
T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER ALL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LOWER BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES AS COLD ADVECTION WANES AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

SEA FOG...LOW STRATUS DECKS COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
INTO TUESDAY. ACTUAL SEA FOG MAY HAVE A WINDOW TO DEVELOP AS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP MID/UPPER 50 SHELF WATER TEMPS
WITHIN A SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
PRIOR TO WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT WEDNESDAY. NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...GIVEN
THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AN INCREASING
RISK FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME
OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. THIS SITUATION MIGHT BE FURTHER EXACERBATED
DUE TO STEADY RAINS PRIOR TO AND DURING THE HIGH TIDAL CYCLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...33/SPR
MARINE...33/SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 210312
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1012 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATE SATURDAY EVENING...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA RADAR TRENDS
CONTINUED TO DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN EJECTING ENE TOWARD THE AREA. INITIALLY...
POPS GRADUATED FROM HIGH CHANCE ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 TO
BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL SUFFICE AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR HAS TEMPORARILY OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS
SHOWN BY THE 00Z KCHS SOUNDING AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ALSO...
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION THUS FAR
HAS REMAINED LIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MODEL
CONSENSUS INCLUDING RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL INCREASE. ACCORDINGLY...RAMPED UP POPS
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY TAPERED FROM LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL COUNTIES TO CHANCE INLAND. GIVEN THE MOST
RECENT RUC13 AND HRRR GUIDANCE...LIGHT RAIN YET BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN INDICATED WITHIN THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...AND
HIGHER POPS COULD BE REQUIRED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

MEANWHILE...WITHIN THE WEDGE REGIME STRATUS COULD PRODUCE SOME
DRIZZLE AND COULD LOWER TOWARD THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT FOG
OVERNIGHT. NEAR THE COAST...PERSISTENT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CEILINGS COULD OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITY.
FARTHER INLAND...SLIGHTLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS
COULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ONLY SLOWLY OVERNIGHT AND BY
DAYBREAK WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S SOUTH AND ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY FROM TONIGHT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AND REINFORCES THE PRE-EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE EAST/SE OF THE GULF STREAM. IT ALSO KEEPS
THE INLAND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT EXTENDS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE IMPULSE ALOFT ALSO TRIGGERS WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST SOME 250 NM EAST OF SAVANNAH AS IT
MOVES LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL AGAIN BE THE
MAIN FACTOR FOR GENERATING RAINFALL...AS IT INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND POPS ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. WE/LL
START THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG
BEFORE POPS CLIMB INTO THE 30-50 PERCENTILE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE OVER SE GA AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-16 DURING THAT TIME. OVERCAST SKIES AND A CONTINUED FEED OF AIR
FROM THE NORTH/NE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FORCES THE ATLANTIC WAVE TO
DEEPEN A FEW MILLIBARS AS IT LIFTS NE ROUGHLY ALONG THE GULF STREAM
TO A POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN
REINFORCES THE WEDGE INLAND...WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS FOR A FURTHER
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THAT ALONG WITH FORCING FROM THE
UPPER JET OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE COUNTRY AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY ATLANTIC LOW WILL CAUSE COVERAGE OF RAIN
TO EXPAND INTO AT LEAST THE 70-80 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE COVERAGE DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EST ON MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY. PWATS OF 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES AND THE FLOW
ALOFT OPENING MORE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS AT LEAST 1/4
TO 1/2 INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO COULD SUPPORT A
LITTLE ELEVATED CONVECTION. LOW STRATUS DECKS WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME
REDUCTION IN SURFACE VISIBILITIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AND WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
5-10 DEGREE TEMP SWING FROM DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY TO NIGHTTIME LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN A FAIRLY LARGE NORTH/NW TO SOUTH/SE TEMP GRADIENT
MONDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. FURTHER UPSTREAM A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE STARTS TO DIG
THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES...WHICH IN TURN AMPLIFIES THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS BACKS OUR FLOW ALOFT FURTHER TO THE
SW AND OPENS THE DOOR FOR A FEED OF EVEN DEEPER AND TROPICAL-LIKE
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN. PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES SO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE MONDAY NIGHT
THEN SHOULD PEAK IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL QPF
WILL BE AT LEAST 1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES...WITH POTENTIAL HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THIS PATTERN. THE SHORT WAVE IN THE PLAINS WILL ALSO TRIGGER
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION BY TUESDAY...WHICH IN TURN
ATTEMPTS TO LIFT OUR COASTAL WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. NOT SURE HOW THIS
PROGRESSION WILL ACTUAL PAN OUT GIVEN THAT THE INLAND WEDGE WILL BE
RELUCTANT TO GIVE UP ITS HOLD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM ADVECTION TO
BOOST TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 60S...PERHAPS EVEN
HIGHER NEAR THE ALTAMAHA. THIS IN TURN CREATES SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-800 J/KG IN SYNC WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES AND SOUTH OF I-16. IT/S IN
THESE AREAS WHERE WE HAVE ISOLATED T-STORMS MENTIONED IN THE LATEST
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST. WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND IT. A MUCH
QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS THEN ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON
FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DO NOT EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT BEYOND MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE TIME THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PREVALENCE OF LIGHT RAIN REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS ADDITIONAL WAVES PUSH E/NE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY. HIGHEST POPS SHOULD OCCUR AT KSAV
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH RAIN COULD EXPAND INTO THE KCHS AREA. EVEN IF A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOULD COMMENCE AT BOTH SITES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...MARINE LAYER MIXING AND A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED NORTHEAST
WINDS...AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT...AND ASSOCIATED SEAS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. OVERALL...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY...A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE GA COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND A STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NE WINDS OF AT
LEAST 15-20 KT...WITH GUSTS AT TIMES TO NEAR 25 KT. IF THE GUSTS
BECOME FREQUENT ENOUGH WE/D NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH
WE/LL DEFER TO FUTURE SHIFTS TO SEE IF WE INDEED SHOULD HOIST THE
ADVISORY HEADLINE. THE FETCH IS FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR SEAS TO BE AS
HIGH AS 3-5 FT...GREATEST OVER AMZ374 AND THE EASTERNMOST PARTS OF
AMZ350.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE ATLANTIC WAVE DEEPENS SOME AS IT LIFTS
NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE HOLDS FIRM. THE
GRADIENT THOUGH DOES SLACKEN SOME OF THE LOW SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS AND BELOW ANY
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE INLAND WEDGE IS STILL IN PLACE DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT DOES ATTEMPT TO ERODE BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COASTAL WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH/NW. UNTIL THIS
TRANSITION THOUGH OUR WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO VEER AROUND...AS SPEEDS
HOLD NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS ARE LIMITED TO 3 OR 4 FT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FINALLY THE COASTAL WARM FRONT WILL
SHIFT NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND THE RESULTING
MARINE-LAYERING EFFECTS WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE FRONT THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG
ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES MAY SUPPORT GALES...OR AT THE LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT SOME STRONGER
T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER ALL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LOWER BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES AS COLD ADVECTION WANES AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

SEA FOG...LOW STRATUS DECKS COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
INTO TUESDAY. ACTUAL SEA FOG MAY HAVE A WINDOW TO DEVELOP AS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP MID/UPPER 50 SHELF WATER TEMPS
WITHIN A SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
PRIOR TO WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT WEDNESDAY. NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...GIVEN
THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AN INCREASING
RISK FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME
OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. THIS SITUATION MIGHT BE FURTHER EXACERBATED
DUE TO STEADY RAINS PRIOR TO AND DURING THE HIGH TIDAL CYCLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...33/SPR
MARINE...33/SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 210312
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1012 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATE SATURDAY EVENING...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA RADAR TRENDS
CONTINUED TO DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN EJECTING ENE TOWARD THE AREA. INITIALLY...
POPS GRADUATED FROM HIGH CHANCE ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 TO
BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL SUFFICE AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR HAS TEMPORARILY OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS
SHOWN BY THE 00Z KCHS SOUNDING AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ALSO...
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION THUS FAR
HAS REMAINED LIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MODEL
CONSENSUS INCLUDING RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL INCREASE. ACCORDINGLY...RAMPED UP POPS
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY TAPERED FROM LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL COUNTIES TO CHANCE INLAND. GIVEN THE MOST
RECENT RUC13 AND HRRR GUIDANCE...LIGHT RAIN YET BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN INDICATED WITHIN THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...AND
HIGHER POPS COULD BE REQUIRED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

MEANWHILE...WITHIN THE WEDGE REGIME STRATUS COULD PRODUCE SOME
DRIZZLE AND COULD LOWER TOWARD THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT FOG
OVERNIGHT. NEAR THE COAST...PERSISTENT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CEILINGS COULD OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITY.
FARTHER INLAND...SLIGHTLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS
COULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ONLY SLOWLY OVERNIGHT AND BY
DAYBREAK WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S SOUTH AND ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY FROM TONIGHT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AND REINFORCES THE PRE-EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE EAST/SE OF THE GULF STREAM. IT ALSO KEEPS
THE INLAND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT EXTENDS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE IMPULSE ALOFT ALSO TRIGGERS WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST SOME 250 NM EAST OF SAVANNAH AS IT
MOVES LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL AGAIN BE THE
MAIN FACTOR FOR GENERATING RAINFALL...AS IT INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND POPS ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. WE/LL
START THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG
BEFORE POPS CLIMB INTO THE 30-50 PERCENTILE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE OVER SE GA AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-16 DURING THAT TIME. OVERCAST SKIES AND A CONTINUED FEED OF AIR
FROM THE NORTH/NE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FORCES THE ATLANTIC WAVE TO
DEEPEN A FEW MILLIBARS AS IT LIFTS NE ROUGHLY ALONG THE GULF STREAM
TO A POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN
REINFORCES THE WEDGE INLAND...WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS FOR A FURTHER
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THAT ALONG WITH FORCING FROM THE
UPPER JET OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE COUNTRY AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY ATLANTIC LOW WILL CAUSE COVERAGE OF RAIN
TO EXPAND INTO AT LEAST THE 70-80 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE COVERAGE DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EST ON MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY. PWATS OF 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES AND THE FLOW
ALOFT OPENING MORE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS AT LEAST 1/4
TO 1/2 INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO COULD SUPPORT A
LITTLE ELEVATED CONVECTION. LOW STRATUS DECKS WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME
REDUCTION IN SURFACE VISIBILITIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AND WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
5-10 DEGREE TEMP SWING FROM DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY TO NIGHTTIME LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN A FAIRLY LARGE NORTH/NW TO SOUTH/SE TEMP GRADIENT
MONDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. FURTHER UPSTREAM A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE STARTS TO DIG
THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES...WHICH IN TURN AMPLIFIES THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS BACKS OUR FLOW ALOFT FURTHER TO THE
SW AND OPENS THE DOOR FOR A FEED OF EVEN DEEPER AND TROPICAL-LIKE
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN. PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES SO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE MONDAY NIGHT
THEN SHOULD PEAK IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL QPF
WILL BE AT LEAST 1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES...WITH POTENTIAL HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THIS PATTERN. THE SHORT WAVE IN THE PLAINS WILL ALSO TRIGGER
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION BY TUESDAY...WHICH IN TURN
ATTEMPTS TO LIFT OUR COASTAL WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. NOT SURE HOW THIS
PROGRESSION WILL ACTUAL PAN OUT GIVEN THAT THE INLAND WEDGE WILL BE
RELUCTANT TO GIVE UP ITS HOLD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM ADVECTION TO
BOOST TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 60S...PERHAPS EVEN
HIGHER NEAR THE ALTAMAHA. THIS IN TURN CREATES SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-800 J/KG IN SYNC WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES AND SOUTH OF I-16. IT/S IN
THESE AREAS WHERE WE HAVE ISOLATED T-STORMS MENTIONED IN THE LATEST
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST. WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND IT. A MUCH
QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS THEN ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON
FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DO NOT EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT BEYOND MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE TIME THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PREVALENCE OF LIGHT RAIN REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS ADDITIONAL WAVES PUSH E/NE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY. HIGHEST POPS SHOULD OCCUR AT KSAV
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH RAIN COULD EXPAND INTO THE KCHS AREA. EVEN IF A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOULD COMMENCE AT BOTH SITES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...MARINE LAYER MIXING AND A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED NORTHEAST
WINDS...AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT...AND ASSOCIATED SEAS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. OVERALL...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY...A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE GA COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND A STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NE WINDS OF AT
LEAST 15-20 KT...WITH GUSTS AT TIMES TO NEAR 25 KT. IF THE GUSTS
BECOME FREQUENT ENOUGH WE/D NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH
WE/LL DEFER TO FUTURE SHIFTS TO SEE IF WE INDEED SHOULD HOIST THE
ADVISORY HEADLINE. THE FETCH IS FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR SEAS TO BE AS
HIGH AS 3-5 FT...GREATEST OVER AMZ374 AND THE EASTERNMOST PARTS OF
AMZ350.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE ATLANTIC WAVE DEEPENS SOME AS IT LIFTS
NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE HOLDS FIRM. THE
GRADIENT THOUGH DOES SLACKEN SOME OF THE LOW SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS AND BELOW ANY
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE INLAND WEDGE IS STILL IN PLACE DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT DOES ATTEMPT TO ERODE BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COASTAL WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH/NW. UNTIL THIS
TRANSITION THOUGH OUR WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO VEER AROUND...AS SPEEDS
HOLD NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS ARE LIMITED TO 3 OR 4 FT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FINALLY THE COASTAL WARM FRONT WILL
SHIFT NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND THE RESULTING
MARINE-LAYERING EFFECTS WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE FRONT THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG
ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES MAY SUPPORT GALES...OR AT THE LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT SOME STRONGER
T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER ALL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LOWER BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES AS COLD ADVECTION WANES AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

SEA FOG...LOW STRATUS DECKS COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
INTO TUESDAY. ACTUAL SEA FOG MAY HAVE A WINDOW TO DEVELOP AS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP MID/UPPER 50 SHELF WATER TEMPS
WITHIN A SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
PRIOR TO WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT WEDNESDAY. NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...GIVEN
THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AN INCREASING
RISK FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME
OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. THIS SITUATION MIGHT BE FURTHER EXACERBATED
DUE TO STEADY RAINS PRIOR TO AND DURING THE HIGH TIDAL CYCLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...33/SPR
MARINE...33/SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KFFC 210019 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
719 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

UPPED POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SOME FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON
INCREASING COVERAGE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS. PRECIPITATION IS VERY
LIGHT AND MUCH IS NOT REACHING THE SURFACE...HOWEVER OUR POPS WERE
VERY LOW FOR THE EVENING. MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS AND SKIES
AS WELL...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS LOOK GOOD.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH VERY WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT WITH
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT.

YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND BEGINS TO DAM DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN A DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL DAMMING SCENARIO. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEEPENING DOWN THE PLAINS PROGGED TO IMPACT
US MID-WEEK.

AS THE GULF SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT...WHILE ADDITIONAL AND MORE
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BUT AT BEST IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON HOW SOLIDLY THE CAD ENTRENCHES ITSELF THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE CAD REALLY SETS UP IN EARNEST. RIGHT NOW HAVE TEMPS AT OR JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES...LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER MAV VS MET
VALUES /00Z ECS COOLER STILL/.

MUCAPE VALUES NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER POTENTIAL
EVEN FOR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP
WORDING AT JUST RAIN FOR NOW. MORE INTERESTING WEATHER EVENT
FROM THE DEEPENING PLAINS TROUGH SETS UP INTO THE EXTENDED.

TDP

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE MADE SLIGHT CHANGES WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM DUE TO CONTINUED
TIMING SHIFTS OF THE MODELS. THE 06Z GFS RUN PUSHED THE TIMING BACK
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS RUN NOW HAS THE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
RUN IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER. THIS WOULD PUT THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO
CURRENT POPS MONDAY NIGHT, MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TUESDAY...AND
INCREASE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS THERE.
AT THIS TIME THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY WITH THE FROPA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND
PUSH THE TIMING BACK TO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

17

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

ALL AREAS MVFR OR LOWER CURRENTLY AND I EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE IFR
OR LOWER BY 06Z. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE PERIOD...SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 8KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF TRANSITIONS BETWEEN MVFR/IFR AND LIFR PERIODS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          39  51  41  50 /  10  40  60  60
ATLANTA         43  52  43  52 /  10  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     36  49  39  48 /  10  20  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    36  52  42  52 /  10  30  30  20
COLUMBUS        45  55  46  59 /  20  40  50  40
GAINESVILLE     38  50  41  49 /  10  30  50  50
MACON           44  54  45  57 /  30  50  60  50
ROME            34  52  41  52 /  10  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  39  52  42  55 /  10  40  50  30
VIDALIA         46  53  48  60 /  40  60  70  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...20



000
FXUS62 KFFC 210019 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
719 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

UPPED POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SOME FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON
INCREASING COVERAGE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS. PRECIPITATION IS VERY
LIGHT AND MUCH IS NOT REACHING THE SURFACE...HOWEVER OUR POPS WERE
VERY LOW FOR THE EVENING. MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS AND SKIES
AS WELL...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS LOOK GOOD.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH VERY WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT WITH
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT.

YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND BEGINS TO DAM DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN A DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL DAMMING SCENARIO. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEEPENING DOWN THE PLAINS PROGGED TO IMPACT
US MID-WEEK.

AS THE GULF SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT...WHILE ADDITIONAL AND MORE
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BUT AT BEST IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON HOW SOLIDLY THE CAD ENTRENCHES ITSELF THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE CAD REALLY SETS UP IN EARNEST. RIGHT NOW HAVE TEMPS AT OR JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES...LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER MAV VS MET
VALUES /00Z ECS COOLER STILL/.

MUCAPE VALUES NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER POTENTIAL
EVEN FOR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP
WORDING AT JUST RAIN FOR NOW. MORE INTERESTING WEATHER EVENT
FROM THE DEEPENING PLAINS TROUGH SETS UP INTO THE EXTENDED.

TDP

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE MADE SLIGHT CHANGES WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM DUE TO CONTINUED
TIMING SHIFTS OF THE MODELS. THE 06Z GFS RUN PUSHED THE TIMING BACK
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS RUN NOW HAS THE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
RUN IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER. THIS WOULD PUT THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO
CURRENT POPS MONDAY NIGHT, MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TUESDAY...AND
INCREASE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS THERE.
AT THIS TIME THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY WITH THE FROPA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND
PUSH THE TIMING BACK TO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

17

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

ALL AREAS MVFR OR LOWER CURRENTLY AND I EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE IFR
OR LOWER BY 06Z. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE PERIOD...SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 8KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF TRANSITIONS BETWEEN MVFR/IFR AND LIFR PERIODS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          39  51  41  50 /  10  40  60  60
ATLANTA         43  52  43  52 /  10  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     36  49  39  48 /  10  20  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    36  52  42  52 /  10  30  30  20
COLUMBUS        45  55  46  59 /  20  40  50  40
GAINESVILLE     38  50  41  49 /  10  30  50  50
MACON           44  54  45  57 /  30  50  60  50
ROME            34  52  41  52 /  10  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  39  52  42  55 /  10  40  50  30
VIDALIA         46  53  48  60 /  40  60  70  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KCAE 210002
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
702 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
RAIN CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLIER TODAY AS AN UPPER
SHORT WAVE DEPARTED TO OUR EAST...LEAVING BEHIND EXTENSIVE LOW
CLOUDINESS AND WEDGE LIKE CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT
UPPER DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS...WILL ROLL EAST
TONIGHT...AHEAD OF WHICH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
RECOMMENCE NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. LATEST
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF S GA...WHICH
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA
LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT NE WIND. GUIDANCE INDICATING
MIXED SIGNALS WITH REGARD TO THE EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE OF DENSE WORDING NOT SUFFICIENT TO PUT IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO  THE MS
VALLEY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. DURING THE PERIOD...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH AS THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG SUNDAY MORNING WITH
POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM S TO N EXPECT A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN POPS. POPS GO FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY TO CATEGORICAL
BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LITTLE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD JUST BELOW CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS AND JUST ABOVE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE VIGOROUS S/W WILL DIG A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY BY MID WEEK AS MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE
UPPER PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1.5
INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
A WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MODELS INDICATE
THIS FEATURE HOLDING INTO TUESDAY. HAVE TRENDED WITH LOWER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ECMWF/GFS/NAM INDICATE NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS LIFT THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY RISE SLOWLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS
FROM NE AND E TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF THE SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER ISENTROPIC LIFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
AN INCREASING WIND FIELD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
SHOWS A 50 TO 60 KT H8 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DELAY OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AREA BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BY WEDNESDAY HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO EXPECT INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE INCREASING SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF A SMALL
POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN
RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WITH
FOG DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS WELL AS CIGS
LOWERING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWEST CONDITIONS AT AGS/DNL/OGB WHERE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE LOW LEVELS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND 13Z WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND 16Z AGS/DNL/OGB...20Z CAE/CUB...AS
SHOWERS BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS CROSS THE REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KCHS 202359
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
659 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SATURDAY EVENING...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA RADAR TRENDS
DEPICTED ANOTHER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED EXPANDING COVERAGE OF LIGHT
RAIN EJECTING ENE TOWARD THE AREA. ACCORDINGLY...RAISED POPS TO
HIGH CHANCE ESPECIALLY ALONG/S OF I-16 AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...TAPERED TO CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER N/NW. RECENT HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR...SUGGESTS THAT LIGHT
RAIN COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD AND THAT HIGHER POPS COULD BE
REQUIRED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

OTHERWISE...PER ONGOING/EXPECTED TRENDS SLOWED THE RATE OF
TEMPERATURE DECREASE TONIGHT. WITHIN THE WEDGE REGIME...STRATUS
COULD PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE AND COULD LOWER TOWARD THE SURFACE TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. PERSISTENT SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY FROM TONIGHT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AND REINFORCES THE PRE-EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE EAST/SE OF THE GULF STREAM. IT ALSO KEEPS
THE INLAND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT EXTENDS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE IMPULSE ALOFT ALSO TRIGGERS WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST SOME 250 NM EAST OF SAVANNAH AS IT
MOVES LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL AGAIN BE THE
MAIN FACTOR FOR GENERATING RAINFALL...AS IT INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND POPS ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. WE/LL
START THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG
BEFORE POPS CLIMB INTO THE 30-50 PERCENTILE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE OVER SE GA AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-16 DURING THAT TIME. OVERCAST SKIES AND A CONTINUED FEED OF AIR
FROM THE NORTH/NE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FORCES THE ATLANTIC WAVE TO
DEEPEN A FEW MILLIBARS AS IT LIFTS NE ROUGHLY ALONG THE GULF STREAM
TO A POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN
REINFORCES THE WEDGE INLAND...WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS FOR A FURTHER
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THAT ALONG WITH FORCING FROM THE
UPPER JET OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE COUNTRY AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY ATLANTIC LOW WILL CAUSE COVERAGE OF RAIN
TO EXPAND INTO AT LEAST THE 70-80 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE COVERAGE DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EST ON MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY. PWATS OF 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES AND THE FLOW
ALOFT OPENING MORE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS AT LEAST 1/4
TO 1/2 INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO COULD SUPPORT A
LITTLE ELEVATED CONVECTION. LOW STRATUS DECKS WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME
REDUCTION IN SURFACE VISIBILITIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AND WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
5-10 DEGREE TEMP SWING FROM DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY TO NIGHTTIME LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN A FAIRLY LARGE NORTH/NW TO SOUTH/SE TEMP GRADIENT
MONDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. FURTHER UPSTREAM A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE STARTS TO DIG
THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES...WHICH IN TURN AMPLIFIES THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS BACKS OUR FLOW ALOFT FURTHER TO THE
SW AND OPENS THE DOOR FOR A FEED OF EVEN DEEPER AND TROPICAL-LIKE
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN. PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES SO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE MONDAY NIGHT
THEN SHOULD PEAK IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL QPF
WILL BE AT LEAST 1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES...WITH POTENTIAL HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THIS PATTERN. THE SHORT WAVE IN THE PLAINS WILL ALSO TRIGGER
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION BY TUESDAY...WHICH IN TURN
ATTEMPTS TO LIFT OUR COASTAL WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. NOT SURE HOW THIS
PROGRESSION WILL ACTUAL PAN OUT GIVEN THAT THE INLAND WEDGE WILL BE
RELUCTANT TO GIVE UP ITS HOLD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM ADVECTION TO
BOOST TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 60S...PERHAPS EVEN
HIGHER NEAR THE ALTAMAHA. THIS IN TURN CREATES SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-800 J/KG IN SYNC WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES AND SOUTH OF I-16. IT/S IN
THESE AREAS WHERE WE HAVE ISOLATED T-STORMS MENTIONED IN THE LATEST
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST. WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND IT. A MUCH
QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS THEN ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON
FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DO NOT EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT BEYOND MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE TIME THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PREVALENCE OF LIGHT RAIN REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS ADDITIONAL WAVES PUSH E/NE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY. HIGHEST POPS SHOULD OCCUR AT KSAV
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH RAIN COULD EXPAND INTO THE KCHS AREA. EVEN IF A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOULD COMMENCE AT BOTH SITES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE TIGHT NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOW
PRESSURE SPINS OFF THE SC COAST. A STEADY 15-20 KT WIND EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF THE MARINE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM.

SUNDAY...A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE GA COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND A STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NE WINDS OF AT
LEAST 15-20 KT...WITH GUSTS AT TIMES TO NEAR 25 KT. IF THE GUSTS
BECOME FREQUENT ENOUGH WE/D NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH
WE/LL DEFER TO FUTURE SHIFTS TO SEE IF WE INDEED SHOULD HOIST THE
ADVISORY HEADLINE. THE FETCH IS FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR SEAS TO BE AS
HIGH AS 3-5 FT...GREATEST OVER AMZ374 AND THE EASTERNMOST PARTS OF
AMZ350.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE ATLANTIC WAVE DEEPENS SOME AS IT LIFTS
NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE HOLDS FIRM. THE
GRADIENT THOUGH DOES SLACKEN SOME OF THE LOW SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS AND BELOW ANY
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE INLAND WEDGE IS STILL IN PLACE DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT DOES ATTEMPT TO ERODE BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COASTAL WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH/NW. UNTIL THIS
TRANSITION THOUGH OUR WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO VEER AROUND...AS SPEEDS
HOLD NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS ARE LIMITED TO 3 OR 4 FT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FINALLY THE COASTAL WARM FRONT WILL
SHIFT NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND THE RESULTING
MARINE-LAYERING EFFECTS WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE FRONT THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG
ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES MAY SUPPORT GALES...OR AT THE LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT SOME STRONGER
T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER ALL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LOWER BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES AS COLD ADVECTION WANES AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

SEA FOG...LOW STRATUS DECKS COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
INTO TUESDAY. ACTUAL SEA FOG MAY HAVE A WINDOW TO DEVELOP AS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP MID/UPPER 50 SHELF WATER TEMPS
WITHIN A SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
PRIOR TO WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT WEDNESDAY. NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...GIVEN
THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AN INCREASING
RISK FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME
OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. THIS SITUATION MIGHT BE FURTHER EXACERBATED
DUE TO STEADY RAINS PRIOR TO AND DURING THE HIGH TIDAL CYCLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL/SPR
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...33/JRL/SPR
MARINE...33/JRL/SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...33






000
FXUS62 KCHS 202359
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
659 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SATURDAY EVENING...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA RADAR TRENDS
DEPICTED ANOTHER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED EXPANDING COVERAGE OF LIGHT
RAIN EJECTING ENE TOWARD THE AREA. ACCORDINGLY...RAISED POPS TO
HIGH CHANCE ESPECIALLY ALONG/S OF I-16 AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...TAPERED TO CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER N/NW. RECENT HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR...SUGGESTS THAT LIGHT
RAIN COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD AND THAT HIGHER POPS COULD BE
REQUIRED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

OTHERWISE...PER ONGOING/EXPECTED TRENDS SLOWED THE RATE OF
TEMPERATURE DECREASE TONIGHT. WITHIN THE WEDGE REGIME...STRATUS
COULD PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE AND COULD LOWER TOWARD THE SURFACE TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. PERSISTENT SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY FROM TONIGHT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AND REINFORCES THE PRE-EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE EAST/SE OF THE GULF STREAM. IT ALSO KEEPS
THE INLAND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT EXTENDS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE IMPULSE ALOFT ALSO TRIGGERS WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST SOME 250 NM EAST OF SAVANNAH AS IT
MOVES LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL AGAIN BE THE
MAIN FACTOR FOR GENERATING RAINFALL...AS IT INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND POPS ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. WE/LL
START THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG
BEFORE POPS CLIMB INTO THE 30-50 PERCENTILE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE OVER SE GA AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-16 DURING THAT TIME. OVERCAST SKIES AND A CONTINUED FEED OF AIR
FROM THE NORTH/NE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FORCES THE ATLANTIC WAVE TO
DEEPEN A FEW MILLIBARS AS IT LIFTS NE ROUGHLY ALONG THE GULF STREAM
TO A POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN
REINFORCES THE WEDGE INLAND...WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS FOR A FURTHER
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THAT ALONG WITH FORCING FROM THE
UPPER JET OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE COUNTRY AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY ATLANTIC LOW WILL CAUSE COVERAGE OF RAIN
TO EXPAND INTO AT LEAST THE 70-80 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE COVERAGE DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EST ON MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY. PWATS OF 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES AND THE FLOW
ALOFT OPENING MORE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS AT LEAST 1/4
TO 1/2 INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO COULD SUPPORT A
LITTLE ELEVATED CONVECTION. LOW STRATUS DECKS WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME
REDUCTION IN SURFACE VISIBILITIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AND WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
5-10 DEGREE TEMP SWING FROM DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY TO NIGHTTIME LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN A FAIRLY LARGE NORTH/NW TO SOUTH/SE TEMP GRADIENT
MONDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. FURTHER UPSTREAM A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE STARTS TO DIG
THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES...WHICH IN TURN AMPLIFIES THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS BACKS OUR FLOW ALOFT FURTHER TO THE
SW AND OPENS THE DOOR FOR A FEED OF EVEN DEEPER AND TROPICAL-LIKE
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN. PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES SO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE MONDAY NIGHT
THEN SHOULD PEAK IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL QPF
WILL BE AT LEAST 1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES...WITH POTENTIAL HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THIS PATTERN. THE SHORT WAVE IN THE PLAINS WILL ALSO TRIGGER
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION BY TUESDAY...WHICH IN TURN
ATTEMPTS TO LIFT OUR COASTAL WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. NOT SURE HOW THIS
PROGRESSION WILL ACTUAL PAN OUT GIVEN THAT THE INLAND WEDGE WILL BE
RELUCTANT TO GIVE UP ITS HOLD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM ADVECTION TO
BOOST TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 60S...PERHAPS EVEN
HIGHER NEAR THE ALTAMAHA. THIS IN TURN CREATES SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-800 J/KG IN SYNC WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES AND SOUTH OF I-16. IT/S IN
THESE AREAS WHERE WE HAVE ISOLATED T-STORMS MENTIONED IN THE LATEST
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST. WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND IT. A MUCH
QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS THEN ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON
FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DO NOT EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT BEYOND MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE TIME THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PREVALENCE OF LIGHT RAIN REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS ADDITIONAL WAVES PUSH E/NE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY. HIGHEST POPS SHOULD OCCUR AT KSAV
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH RAIN COULD EXPAND INTO THE KCHS AREA. EVEN IF A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOULD COMMENCE AT BOTH SITES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE TIGHT NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOW
PRESSURE SPINS OFF THE SC COAST. A STEADY 15-20 KT WIND EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF THE MARINE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM.

SUNDAY...A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE GA COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND A STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NE WINDS OF AT
LEAST 15-20 KT...WITH GUSTS AT TIMES TO NEAR 25 KT. IF THE GUSTS
BECOME FREQUENT ENOUGH WE/D NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH
WE/LL DEFER TO FUTURE SHIFTS TO SEE IF WE INDEED SHOULD HOIST THE
ADVISORY HEADLINE. THE FETCH IS FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR SEAS TO BE AS
HIGH AS 3-5 FT...GREATEST OVER AMZ374 AND THE EASTERNMOST PARTS OF
AMZ350.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE ATLANTIC WAVE DEEPENS SOME AS IT LIFTS
NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE HOLDS FIRM. THE
GRADIENT THOUGH DOES SLACKEN SOME OF THE LOW SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS AND BELOW ANY
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE INLAND WEDGE IS STILL IN PLACE DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT DOES ATTEMPT TO ERODE BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COASTAL WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH/NW. UNTIL THIS
TRANSITION THOUGH OUR WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO VEER AROUND...AS SPEEDS
HOLD NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS ARE LIMITED TO 3 OR 4 FT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FINALLY THE COASTAL WARM FRONT WILL
SHIFT NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND THE RESULTING
MARINE-LAYERING EFFECTS WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE FRONT THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG
ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES MAY SUPPORT GALES...OR AT THE LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT SOME STRONGER
T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER ALL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LOWER BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES AS COLD ADVECTION WANES AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

SEA FOG...LOW STRATUS DECKS COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
INTO TUESDAY. ACTUAL SEA FOG MAY HAVE A WINDOW TO DEVELOP AS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP MID/UPPER 50 SHELF WATER TEMPS
WITHIN A SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
PRIOR TO WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT WEDNESDAY. NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...GIVEN
THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AN INCREASING
RISK FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME
OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. THIS SITUATION MIGHT BE FURTHER EXACERBATED
DUE TO STEADY RAINS PRIOR TO AND DURING THE HIGH TIDAL CYCLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL/SPR
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...33/JRL/SPR
MARINE...33/JRL/SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...33







000
FXUS62 KFFC 202344 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
645 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH VERY WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT WITH
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT.

YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND BEGINS TO DAM DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN A DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL DAMMING SCENARIO. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEEPENING DOWN THE PLAINS PROGGED TO IMPACT
US MID-WEEK.

AS THE GULF SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT...WHILE ADDITIONAL AND MORE
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BUT AT BEST IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON HOW SOLIDLY THE CAD ENTRENCHES ITSELF THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE CAD REALLY SETS UP IN EARNEST. RIGHT NOW HAVE TEMPS AT OR JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES...LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER MAV VS MET
VALUES /00Z ECS COOLER STILL/.

MUCAPE VALUES NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER POTENTIAL
EVEN FOR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP
WORDING AT JUST RAIN FOR NOW. MORE INTERESTING WEATHER EVENT
FROM THE DEEPENING PLAINS TROUGH SETS UP INTO THE EXTENDED.

TDP

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE MADE SLIGHT CHANGES WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM DUE TO CONTINUED
TIMING SHIFTS OF THE MODELS. THE 06Z GFS RUN PUSHED THE TIMING BACK
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS RUN NOW HAS THE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
RUN IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER. THIS WOULD PUT THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO
CURRENT POPS MONDAY NIGHT, MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TUESDAY...AND
INCREASE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS THERE.
AT THIS TIME THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY WITH THE FROPA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND
PUSH THE TIMING BACK TO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

ALL AREAS MVFR OR LOWER CURRENTLY AND I EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE IFR
OR LOWER BY 06Z. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE PERIOD...SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 8KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF TRANSITIONS BETWEEN MVFR/IFR AND LIFR PERIODS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          39  51  41  50 /   5  30  60  60
ATLANTA         43  52  43  52 /   5  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     36  49  39  48 /  10  20  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    36  52  42  52 /  10  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        45  55  46  59 /  20  40  50  40
GAINESVILLE     38  50  41  49 /   5  30  50  50
MACON           44  54  45  57 /  20  50  60  50
ROME            34  52  41  52 /   5  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  39  52  42  55 /   5  30  50  30
VIDALIA         46  53  48  60 /  20  60  80  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KFFC 202344 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
645 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH VERY WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT WITH
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT.

YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND BEGINS TO DAM DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN A DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL DAMMING SCENARIO. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEEPENING DOWN THE PLAINS PROGGED TO IMPACT
US MID-WEEK.

AS THE GULF SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT...WHILE ADDITIONAL AND MORE
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BUT AT BEST IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON HOW SOLIDLY THE CAD ENTRENCHES ITSELF THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE CAD REALLY SETS UP IN EARNEST. RIGHT NOW HAVE TEMPS AT OR JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES...LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER MAV VS MET
VALUES /00Z ECS COOLER STILL/.

MUCAPE VALUES NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER POTENTIAL
EVEN FOR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP
WORDING AT JUST RAIN FOR NOW. MORE INTERESTING WEATHER EVENT
FROM THE DEEPENING PLAINS TROUGH SETS UP INTO THE EXTENDED.

TDP

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE MADE SLIGHT CHANGES WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM DUE TO CONTINUED
TIMING SHIFTS OF THE MODELS. THE 06Z GFS RUN PUSHED THE TIMING BACK
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS RUN NOW HAS THE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
RUN IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER. THIS WOULD PUT THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO
CURRENT POPS MONDAY NIGHT, MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TUESDAY...AND
INCREASE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS THERE.
AT THIS TIME THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY WITH THE FROPA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND
PUSH THE TIMING BACK TO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

ALL AREAS MVFR OR LOWER CURRENTLY AND I EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE IFR
OR LOWER BY 06Z. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE PERIOD...SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 8KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF TRANSITIONS BETWEEN MVFR/IFR AND LIFR PERIODS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          39  51  41  50 /   5  30  60  60
ATLANTA         43  52  43  52 /   5  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     36  49  39  48 /  10  20  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    36  52  42  52 /  10  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        45  55  46  59 /  20  40  50  40
GAINESVILLE     38  50  41  49 /   5  30  50  50
MACON           44  54  45  57 /  20  50  60  50
ROME            34  52  41  52 /   5  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  39  52  42  55 /   5  30  50  30
VIDALIA         46  53  48  60 /  20  60  80  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KFFC 202344 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
645 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH VERY WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT WITH
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT.

YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND BEGINS TO DAM DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN A DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL DAMMING SCENARIO. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEEPENING DOWN THE PLAINS PROGGED TO IMPACT
US MID-WEEK.

AS THE GULF SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT...WHILE ADDITIONAL AND MORE
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BUT AT BEST IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON HOW SOLIDLY THE CAD ENTRENCHES ITSELF THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE CAD REALLY SETS UP IN EARNEST. RIGHT NOW HAVE TEMPS AT OR JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES...LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER MAV VS MET
VALUES /00Z ECS COOLER STILL/.

MUCAPE VALUES NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER POTENTIAL
EVEN FOR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP
WORDING AT JUST RAIN FOR NOW. MORE INTERESTING WEATHER EVENT
FROM THE DEEPENING PLAINS TROUGH SETS UP INTO THE EXTENDED.

TDP

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE MADE SLIGHT CHANGES WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM DUE TO CONTINUED
TIMING SHIFTS OF THE MODELS. THE 06Z GFS RUN PUSHED THE TIMING BACK
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS RUN NOW HAS THE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
RUN IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER. THIS WOULD PUT THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO
CURRENT POPS MONDAY NIGHT, MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TUESDAY...AND
INCREASE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS THERE.
AT THIS TIME THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY WITH THE FROPA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND
PUSH THE TIMING BACK TO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

ALL AREAS MVFR OR LOWER CURRENTLY AND I EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE IFR
OR LOWER BY 06Z. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE PERIOD...SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 8KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF TRANSITIONS BETWEEN MVFR/IFR AND LIFR PERIODS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          39  51  41  50 /   5  30  60  60
ATLANTA         43  52  43  52 /   5  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     36  49  39  48 /  10  20  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    36  52  42  52 /  10  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        45  55  46  59 /  20  40  50  40
GAINESVILLE     38  50  41  49 /   5  30  50  50
MACON           44  54  45  57 /  20  50  60  50
ROME            34  52  41  52 /   5  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  39  52  42  55 /   5  30  50  30
VIDALIA         46  53  48  60 /  20  60  80  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KFFC 202344 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
645 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH VERY WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT WITH
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT.

YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND BEGINS TO DAM DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN A DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL DAMMING SCENARIO. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEEPENING DOWN THE PLAINS PROGGED TO IMPACT
US MID-WEEK.

AS THE GULF SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT...WHILE ADDITIONAL AND MORE
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BUT AT BEST IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON HOW SOLIDLY THE CAD ENTRENCHES ITSELF THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE CAD REALLY SETS UP IN EARNEST. RIGHT NOW HAVE TEMPS AT OR JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES...LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER MAV VS MET
VALUES /00Z ECS COOLER STILL/.

MUCAPE VALUES NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER POTENTIAL
EVEN FOR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP
WORDING AT JUST RAIN FOR NOW. MORE INTERESTING WEATHER EVENT
FROM THE DEEPENING PLAINS TROUGH SETS UP INTO THE EXTENDED.

TDP

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE MADE SLIGHT CHANGES WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM DUE TO CONTINUED
TIMING SHIFTS OF THE MODELS. THE 06Z GFS RUN PUSHED THE TIMING BACK
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS RUN NOW HAS THE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
RUN IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER. THIS WOULD PUT THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO
CURRENT POPS MONDAY NIGHT, MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TUESDAY...AND
INCREASE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS THERE.
AT THIS TIME THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY WITH THE FROPA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND
PUSH THE TIMING BACK TO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

ALL AREAS MVFR OR LOWER CURRENTLY AND I EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE IFR
OR LOWER BY 06Z. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE PERIOD...SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 8KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF TRANSITIONS BETWEEN MVFR/IFR AND LIFR PERIODS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          39  51  41  50 /   5  30  60  60
ATLANTA         43  52  43  52 /   5  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     36  49  39  48 /  10  20  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    36  52  42  52 /  10  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        45  55  46  59 /  20  40  50  40
GAINESVILLE     38  50  41  49 /   5  30  50  50
MACON           44  54  45  57 /  20  50  60  50
ROME            34  52  41  52 /   5  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  39  52  42  55 /   5  30  50  30
VIDALIA         46  53  48  60 /  20  60  80  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KCHS 202054
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
354 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE PRIMARY UPPER VORT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTING
OFF THE SC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME DRIER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE RAIN TAPERED OFF OVER
MOST AREAS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY RESIDUAL PRECIP OVER
THE SC COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...MORE RECENTLY WE HAVE BEGUN TO
SEE SOME RADAR RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHERN GA MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD
OUR FAR SW ZONES. THE 18Z NAM IS PICKING UP ON A WEAK 700 MB
DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...PROGGED
TO LIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW LATE
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WE MAINTAINED 20-40 POPS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BECOME FURTHER ENTRENCHED TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE SC COAST. ABUNDANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT LOW OVERCAST SKIES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BUILD-DOWN FOG. GEOSTROPHIC FLOW EXPECTED TO BE
GREATER THAN 15 KT OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY PRECLUDE A DENSE FOG EVENT.
ADDITIONALLY...NONE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY INDICATING
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL. WE MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDY SKIES. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT
IN LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY FROM TONIGHT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AND REINFORCES THE PRE-EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE EAST/SE OF THE GULF STREAM. IT ALSO KEEPS
THE INLAND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT EXTENDS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE IMPULSE ALOFT ALSO TRIGGERS WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST SOME 250 NM EAST OF SAVANNAH AS IT
MOVES LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL AGAIN BE THE
MAIN FACTOR FOR GENERATING RAINFALL...AS IT INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND POPS ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. WE/LL
START THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG
BEFORE POPS CLIMB INTO THE 30-50 PERCENTILE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE OVER SE GA AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-16 DURING THAT TIME. OVERCAST SKIES AND A CONTINUED FEED OF AIR
FROM THE NORTH/NE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FORCES THE ATLANTIC WAVE TO
DEEPEN A FEW MILLIBARS AS IT LIFTS NE ROUGHLY ALONG THE GULF STREAM
TO A POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN
REINFORCES THE WEDGE INLAND...WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS FOR A FURTHER
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THAT ALONG WITH FORCING FROM THE
UPPER JET OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE COUNTRY AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY ATLANTIC LOW WILL CAUSE COVERAGE OF RAIN
TO EXPAND INTO AT LEAST THE 70-80 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE COVERAGE DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EST ON MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY. PWATS OF 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES AND THE FLOW
ALOFT OPENING MORE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS AT LEAST 1/4
TO 1/2 INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO COULD SUPPORT A
LITTLE ELEVATED CONVECTION. LOW STRATUS DECKS WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME
REDUCTION IN SURFACE VISIBILITIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AND WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
5-10 DEGREE TEMP SWING FROM DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY TO NIGHTTIME LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN A FAIRLY LARGE NORTH/NW TO SOUTH/SE TEMP GRADIENT
MONDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. FURTHER UPSTREAM A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE STARTS TO DIG
THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES...WHICH IN TURN AMPLIFIES THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS BACKS OUR FLOW ALOFT FURTHER TO THE
SW AND OPENS THE DOOR FOR A FEED OF EVEN DEEPER AND TROPICAL-LIKE
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN. PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES SO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE MONDAY NIGHT
THEN SHOULD PEAK IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL QPF
WILL BE AT LEAST 1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES...WITH POTENTIAL HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THIS PATTERN. THE SHORT WAVE IN THE PLAINS WILL ALSO TRIGGER
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION BY TUESDAY...WHICH IN TURN
ATTEMPTS TO LIFT OUR COASTAL WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. NOT SURE HOW THIS
PROGRESSION WILL ACTUAL PAN OUT GIVEN THAT THE INLAND WEDGE WILL BE
RELUCTANT TO GIVE UP ITS HOLD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM ADVECTION TO
BOOST TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 60S...PERHAPS EVEN
HIGHER NEAR THE ALTAMAHA. THIS IN TURN CREATES SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-800 J/KG IN SYNC WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES AND SOUTH OF I-16. IT/S IN
THESE AREAS WHERE WE HAVE ISOLATED T-STORMS MENTIONED IN THE LATEST
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST. WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND IT. A MUCH
QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS THEN ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON
FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE ALL OVER THE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
AS POCKETS OF DRY AIR INTERACT WITH AN OTHERWISE DEEP MOIST LAYER
IN PLACE. SPORADIC IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL
RETURN TO VFR FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AS DRIER MID AND HIGH LEVEL
AIR SHIFTS IN. OVERNIGHT...THE MODELS ARE SPLIT REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS AND BUILD-DOWN FOG. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGY BOTH SUPPORT PREVAILING IFR CEILINGS AND
3-4SM VSBYS FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AT
LEAST MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AFTER 18Z SO WE DID NOT
INCORPORATE INTO THE CURRENT TAF SET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE TIGHT NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOW
PRESSURE SPINS OFF THE SC COAST. A STEADY 15-20 KT WIND EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF THE MARINE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT
OVER OUTER PORTIONS BY LATE TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE GA COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND A STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NE WINDS OF AT
LEAST 15-20 KT...WITH GUSTS AT TIMES TO NEAR 25 KT. IF THE GUSTS
BECOME FREQUENT ENOUGH WE/D NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH
WE/LL DEFER TO FUTURE SHIFTS TO SEE IF WE INDEED SHOULD HOIST THE
ADVISORY HEADLINE. THE FETCH IS FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR SEAS TO BE AS
HIGH AS 3-5 FT...GREATEST OVER AMZ374 AND THE EASTERNMOST PARTS OF
AMZ350.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE ATLANTIC WAVE DEEPENS SOME AS IT LIFTS
NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE HOLDS FIRM. THE
GRADIENT THOUGH DOES SLACKEN SOME OF THE LOW SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS AND BELOW ANY
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE INLAND WEDGE IS STILL IN PLACE DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT DOES ATTEMPT TO ERODE BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COASTAL WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH/NW. UNTIL THIS
TRANSITION THOUGH OUR WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO VEER AROUND...AS SPEEDS
HOLD NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS ARE LIMITED TO 3 OR 4 FT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FINALLY THE COASTAL WARM FRONT WILL
SHIFT NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND THE RESULTING
MARINE-LAYERING EFFECTS WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE FRONT THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG
ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES MAY SUPPORT GALES...OR AT THE LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT SOME STRONGER
T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER ALL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LOWER BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES AS COLD ADVECTION WANES AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

SEA FOG...LOW STRATUS DECKS COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
INTO TUESDAY. ACTUAL SEA FOG MAY HAVE A WINDOW TO DEVELOP AS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP MID/UPPER 50 SHELF WATER TEMPS
WITHIN A SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
PRIOR TO WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT WEDNESDAY. NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...GIVEN
THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AN INCREASING
RISK FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME
OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. THIS SITUATION MIGHT BE FURTHER EXACERBATED
DUE TO STEADY RAINS PRIOR TO AND DURING THE HIGH TIDAL CYCLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...33/JRL
MARINE...33/JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...33






000
FXUS62 KCHS 202054
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
354 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE PRIMARY UPPER VORT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTING
OFF THE SC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME DRIER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE RAIN TAPERED OFF OVER
MOST AREAS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY RESIDUAL PRECIP OVER
THE SC COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...MORE RECENTLY WE HAVE BEGUN TO
SEE SOME RADAR RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHERN GA MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD
OUR FAR SW ZONES. THE 18Z NAM IS PICKING UP ON A WEAK 700 MB
DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...PROGGED
TO LIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW LATE
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WE MAINTAINED 20-40 POPS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BECOME FURTHER ENTRENCHED TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE SC COAST. ABUNDANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT LOW OVERCAST SKIES...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BUILD-DOWN FOG. GEOSTROPHIC FLOW EXPECTED TO BE
GREATER THAN 15 KT OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY PRECLUDE A DENSE FOG EVENT.
ADDITIONALLY...NONE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY INDICATING
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL. WE MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDY SKIES. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT
IN LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY FROM TONIGHT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AND REINFORCES THE PRE-EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE EAST/SE OF THE GULF STREAM. IT ALSO KEEPS
THE INLAND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ANCHORED IN PLACE AS IT EXTENDS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE IMPULSE ALOFT ALSO TRIGGERS WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST SOME 250 NM EAST OF SAVANNAH AS IT
MOVES LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL AGAIN BE THE
MAIN FACTOR FOR GENERATING RAINFALL...AS IT INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND POPS ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. WE/LL
START THE PERIOD WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG
BEFORE POPS CLIMB INTO THE 30-50 PERCENTILE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE OVER SE GA AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-16 DURING THAT TIME. OVERCAST SKIES AND A CONTINUED FEED OF AIR
FROM THE NORTH/NE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FORCES THE ATLANTIC WAVE TO
DEEPEN A FEW MILLIBARS AS IT LIFTS NE ROUGHLY ALONG THE GULF STREAM
TO A POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN
REINFORCES THE WEDGE INLAND...WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS FOR A FURTHER
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THAT ALONG WITH FORCING FROM THE
UPPER JET OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE COUNTRY AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY ATLANTIC LOW WILL CAUSE COVERAGE OF RAIN
TO EXPAND INTO AT LEAST THE 70-80 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE COVERAGE DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EST ON MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY. PWATS OF 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES AND THE FLOW
ALOFT OPENING MORE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS AT LEAST 1/4
TO 1/2 INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO COULD SUPPORT A
LITTLE ELEVATED CONVECTION. LOW STRATUS DECKS WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME
REDUCTION IN SURFACE VISIBILITIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AND WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
5-10 DEGREE TEMP SWING FROM DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY TO NIGHTTIME LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN A FAIRLY LARGE NORTH/NW TO SOUTH/SE TEMP GRADIENT
MONDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. FURTHER UPSTREAM A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE STARTS TO DIG
THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES...WHICH IN TURN AMPLIFIES THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS BACKS OUR FLOW ALOFT FURTHER TO THE
SW AND OPENS THE DOOR FOR A FEED OF EVEN DEEPER AND TROPICAL-LIKE
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN. PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES SO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE MONDAY NIGHT
THEN SHOULD PEAK IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL QPF
WILL BE AT LEAST 1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES...WITH POTENTIAL HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THIS PATTERN. THE SHORT WAVE IN THE PLAINS WILL ALSO TRIGGER
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION BY TUESDAY...WHICH IN TURN
ATTEMPTS TO LIFT OUR COASTAL WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. NOT SURE HOW THIS
PROGRESSION WILL ACTUAL PAN OUT GIVEN THAT THE INLAND WEDGE WILL BE
RELUCTANT TO GIVE UP ITS HOLD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM ADVECTION TO
BOOST TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 60S...PERHAPS EVEN
HIGHER NEAR THE ALTAMAHA. THIS IN TURN CREATES SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-800 J/KG IN SYNC WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES AND SOUTH OF I-16. IT/S IN
THESE AREAS WHERE WE HAVE ISOLATED T-STORMS MENTIONED IN THE LATEST
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST. WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND IT. A MUCH
QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS THEN ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON
FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE ALL OVER THE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
AS POCKETS OF DRY AIR INTERACT WITH AN OTHERWISE DEEP MOIST LAYER
IN PLACE. SPORADIC IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL
RETURN TO VFR FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AS DRIER MID AND HIGH LEVEL
AIR SHIFTS IN. OVERNIGHT...THE MODELS ARE SPLIT REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS AND BUILD-DOWN FOG. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGY BOTH SUPPORT PREVAILING IFR CEILINGS AND
3-4SM VSBYS FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AT
LEAST MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AFTER 18Z SO WE DID NOT
INCORPORATE INTO THE CURRENT TAF SET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE TIGHT NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOW
PRESSURE SPINS OFF THE SC COAST. A STEADY 15-20 KT WIND EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF THE MARINE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT
OVER OUTER PORTIONS BY LATE TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE GA COAST NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND A STRONG INLAND WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH/NE WINDS OF AT
LEAST 15-20 KT...WITH GUSTS AT TIMES TO NEAR 25 KT. IF THE GUSTS
BECOME FREQUENT ENOUGH WE/D NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH
WE/LL DEFER TO FUTURE SHIFTS TO SEE IF WE INDEED SHOULD HOIST THE
ADVISORY HEADLINE. THE FETCH IS FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR SEAS TO BE AS
HIGH AS 3-5 FT...GREATEST OVER AMZ374 AND THE EASTERNMOST PARTS OF
AMZ350.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE ATLANTIC WAVE DEEPENS SOME AS IT LIFTS
NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE HOLDS FIRM. THE
GRADIENT THOUGH DOES SLACKEN SOME OF THE LOW SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS AND BELOW ANY
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE INLAND WEDGE IS STILL IN PLACE DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT DOES ATTEMPT TO ERODE BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COASTAL WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH/NW. UNTIL THIS
TRANSITION THOUGH OUR WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO VEER AROUND...AS SPEEDS
HOLD NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS ARE LIMITED TO 3 OR 4 FT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FINALLY THE COASTAL WARM FRONT WILL
SHIFT NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND THE RESULTING
MARINE-LAYERING EFFECTS WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE FRONT THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG
ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES MAY SUPPORT GALES...OR AT THE LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT SOME STRONGER
T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER ALL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LOWER BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES AS COLD ADVECTION WANES AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

SEA FOG...LOW STRATUS DECKS COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
INTO TUESDAY. ACTUAL SEA FOG MAY HAVE A WINDOW TO DEVELOP AS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP MID/UPPER 50 SHELF WATER TEMPS
WITHIN A SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
PRIOR TO WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT WEDNESDAY. NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...GIVEN
THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AN INCREASING
RISK FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME
OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. THIS SITUATION MIGHT BE FURTHER EXACERBATED
DUE TO STEADY RAINS PRIOR TO AND DURING THE HIGH TIDAL CYCLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...33/JRL
MARINE...33/JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...33







000
FXUS62 KCAE 201944
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
244 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAIN HAS ALMOST CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN
OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BUT THIS TOO SHOULD SHIFT OUT BY 2 PM.
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT MOVED MUCH TODAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN BUT MAY RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET NOW THAT THE
RAIN HAS CLEARED. LOW CLOUDS EXTEND WELL BACK INTO ALABAMA AND
WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS DO NOT THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
BREAK OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THEREFORE LACK OF UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT
BUT DO THINK THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG THAT DEVELOPS AND POSSIBLY
SOME DENSE FOG IN TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO  THE MS
VALLEY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. DURING THE PERIOD...PRECIPIATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH AS THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG SUNDAY MORNING WITH
POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM S TO N EXPECT A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN POPS. POPS GO FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY TO CATEGORICAL
BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LITTLE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD JUST BELOW CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS AND JUST ABOVE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE VIGOROUS S/W WILL DIG A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY BY MID WEEK AS MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE
UPPER PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1.5
INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
A WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MODELS INDICATE
THIS FEATURE HOLDING INTO TUESDAY. HAVE TRENDED WITH LOWER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ECMWF/GFS/NAM INDICATE NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS LIFT THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY RISE SLOWLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS
FROM NE AND E TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF THE SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER ISENTROPIC LIFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
AN INCREASING WIND FIELD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
SHOWS A 50 TO 60 KT H8 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DELAY OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AREA BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BY WEDNESDAY HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO EXPECT INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE INCREASING SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF A SMALL
POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN
RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE HAS
STRENGTHENED THE INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW IT
SO AM EXPECTING THE MVFR/IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO OPTIMISTIC WITH CIGS THUS FAR
TODAY AND MET GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH THE LOW CIGS SO
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THAT GUIDANCE AND THE LAV GUIDANCE LOWERING
CIGS TO IFR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 04Z WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS
OGB/AGS/DNL. VSBYS ALSO LIKELY TO DROP INTO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
04Z-12Z TIME FRAME. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
GULF COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 201944
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
244 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAIN HAS ALMOST CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN
OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BUT THIS TOO SHOULD SHIFT OUT BY 2 PM.
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT MOVED MUCH TODAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN BUT MAY RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET NOW THAT THE
RAIN HAS CLEARED. LOW CLOUDS EXTEND WELL BACK INTO ALABAMA AND
WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS DO NOT THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
BREAK OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THEREFORE LACK OF UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT
BUT DO THINK THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG THAT DEVELOPS AND POSSIBLY
SOME DENSE FOG IN TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO  THE MS
VALLEY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. DURING THE PERIOD...PRECIPIATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH AS THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG SUNDAY MORNING WITH
POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM S TO N EXPECT A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN POPS. POPS GO FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY TO CATEGORICAL
BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LITTLE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD JUST BELOW CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS AND JUST ABOVE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE VIGOROUS S/W WILL DIG A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY BY MID WEEK AS MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE
UPPER PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1.5
INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
A WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MODELS INDICATE
THIS FEATURE HOLDING INTO TUESDAY. HAVE TRENDED WITH LOWER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ECMWF/GFS/NAM INDICATE NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS LIFT THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY RISE SLOWLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS
FROM NE AND E TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF THE SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER ISENTROPIC LIFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
AN INCREASING WIND FIELD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
SHOWS A 50 TO 60 KT H8 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DELAY OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AREA BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BY WEDNESDAY HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO EXPECT INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE INCREASING SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF A SMALL
POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN
RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE HAS
STRENGTHENED THE INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW IT
SO AM EXPECTING THE MVFR/IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO OPTIMISTIC WITH CIGS THUS FAR
TODAY AND MET GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH THE LOW CIGS SO
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THAT GUIDANCE AND THE LAV GUIDANCE LOWERING
CIGS TO IFR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 04Z WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS
OGB/AGS/DNL. VSBYS ALSO LIKELY TO DROP INTO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
04Z-12Z TIME FRAME. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
GULF COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 201944
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
244 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAIN HAS ALMOST CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN
OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BUT THIS TOO SHOULD SHIFT OUT BY 2 PM.
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT MOVED MUCH TODAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN BUT MAY RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET NOW THAT THE
RAIN HAS CLEARED. LOW CLOUDS EXTEND WELL BACK INTO ALABAMA AND
WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS DO NOT THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
BREAK OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THEREFORE LACK OF UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT
BUT DO THINK THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG THAT DEVELOPS AND POSSIBLY
SOME DENSE FOG IN TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO  THE MS
VALLEY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. DURING THE PERIOD...PRECIPIATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH AS THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG SUNDAY MORNING WITH
POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM S TO N EXPECT A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN POPS. POPS GO FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY TO CATEGORICAL
BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LITTLE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD JUST BELOW CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS AND JUST ABOVE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE VIGOROUS S/W WILL DIG A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY BY MID WEEK AS MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE
UPPER PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1.5
INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
A WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MODELS INDICATE
THIS FEATURE HOLDING INTO TUESDAY. HAVE TRENDED WITH LOWER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ECMWF/GFS/NAM INDICATE NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS LIFT THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY RISE SLOWLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS
FROM NE AND E TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF THE SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER ISENTROPIC LIFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
AN INCREASING WIND FIELD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
SHOWS A 50 TO 60 KT H8 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DELAY OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AREA BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BY WEDNESDAY HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO EXPECT INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE INCREASING SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF A SMALL
POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN
RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE HAS
STRENGTHENED THE INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW IT
SO AM EXPECTING THE MVFR/IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO OPTIMISTIC WITH CIGS THUS FAR
TODAY AND MET GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH THE LOW CIGS SO
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THAT GUIDANCE AND THE LAV GUIDANCE LOWERING
CIGS TO IFR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 04Z WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS
OGB/AGS/DNL. VSBYS ALSO LIKELY TO DROP INTO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
04Z-12Z TIME FRAME. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
GULF COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 201944
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
244 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAIN HAS ALMOST CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN
OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BUT THIS TOO SHOULD SHIFT OUT BY 2 PM.
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT MOVED MUCH TODAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN BUT MAY RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET NOW THAT THE
RAIN HAS CLEARED. LOW CLOUDS EXTEND WELL BACK INTO ALABAMA AND
WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS DO NOT THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
BREAK OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THEREFORE LACK OF UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT
BUT DO THINK THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG THAT DEVELOPS AND POSSIBLY
SOME DENSE FOG IN TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO  THE MS
VALLEY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. DURING THE PERIOD...PRECIPIATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH AS THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG SUNDAY MORNING WITH
POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM S TO N EXPECT A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN POPS. POPS GO FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY TO CATEGORICAL
BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LITTLE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD JUST BELOW CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS AND JUST ABOVE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE VIGOROUS S/W WILL DIG A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY BY MID WEEK AS MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE
UPPER PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1.5
INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
A WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MODELS INDICATE
THIS FEATURE HOLDING INTO TUESDAY. HAVE TRENDED WITH LOWER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ECMWF/GFS/NAM INDICATE NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND VERY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS LIFT THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY RISE SLOWLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS
FROM NE AND E TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE TREND OF THE SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER ISENTROPIC LIFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
AN INCREASING WIND FIELD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
SHOWS A 50 TO 60 KT H8 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DELAY OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AREA BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BY WEDNESDAY HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO EXPECT INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE INCREASING SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF A SMALL
POP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN
RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE HAS
STRENGTHENED THE INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW IT
SO AM EXPECTING THE MVFR/IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO OPTIMISTIC WITH CIGS THUS FAR
TODAY AND MET GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH THE LOW CIGS SO
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THAT GUIDANCE AND THE LAV GUIDANCE LOWERING
CIGS TO IFR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 04Z WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS
OGB/AGS/DNL. VSBYS ALSO LIKELY TO DROP INTO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
04Z-12Z TIME FRAME. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
GULF COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KFFC 201935
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
235 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH VERY WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT WITH
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT.

YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND BEGINS TO DAM DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN A DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL DAMMING SCENARIO. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEEPENING DOWN THE PLAINS PROGGED TO IMPACT
US MID-WEEK.

AS THE GULF SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT...WHILE ADDITIONAL AND MORE
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BUT AT BEST IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON HOW SOLIDLY THE CAD ENTRENCHES ITSELF THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE CAD REALLY SETS UP IN EARNEST. RIGHT NOW HAVE TEMPS AT OR JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES...LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER MAV VS MET
VALUES /00Z ECS COOLER STILL/.

MUCAPE VALUES NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER POTENTIAL
EVEN FOR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP
WORDING AT JUST RAIN FOR NOW. MORE INTERESTING WEATHER EVENT
FROM THE DEEPENING PLAINS TROUGH SETS UP INTO THE EXTENDED.

TDP

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE MADE SLIGHT CHANGES WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM DUE TO CONTINUED
TIMING SHIFTS OF THE MODELS. THE 06Z GFS RUN PUSHED THE TIMING BACK
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS RUN NOW HAS THE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
RUN IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER. THIS WOULD PUT THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO
CURRENT POPS MONDAY NIGHT, MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TUESDAY...AND
INCREASE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS THERE.
AT THIS TIME THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY WITH THE FROPA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND
PUSH THE TIMING BACK TO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH PATCHES OF IFR CIGS. WILL
CONTINUE TREND WITH ONLY MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE MVFR EVERYWHERE. CIGS DROP AGAIN OVERNIGHT
WITH HINTS AT LIFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS IFR FOG. SOME HINTS AT
LIFR FOG. ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW MVFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS FAVORING THE E SIDE
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF NNW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY ALL 5KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM-HIGH ON WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CIGS BUT HIGH ON GENERAL TRENDS.
MEDIUM ON VSBY REMAINING 2SM OR GREATER.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          39  51  41  50 /   5  30  60  60
ATLANTA         43  52  43  52 /   5  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     36  49  39  48 /  10  20  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    36  52  42  52 /  10  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        45  55  46  59 /  20  40  50  40
GAINESVILLE     38  50  41  49 /   5  30  50  50
MACON           44  54  45  57 /  20  50  60  50
ROME            34  52  41  52 /   5  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  39  52  42  55 /   5  30  50  30
VIDALIA         46  53  48  60 /  20  60  80  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KFFC 201935
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
235 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH VERY WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT WITH
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT.

YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND BEGINS TO DAM DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN A DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL DAMMING SCENARIO. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEEPENING DOWN THE PLAINS PROGGED TO IMPACT
US MID-WEEK.

AS THE GULF SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT...WHILE ADDITIONAL AND MORE
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BUT AT BEST IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON HOW SOLIDLY THE CAD ENTRENCHES ITSELF THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE CAD REALLY SETS UP IN EARNEST. RIGHT NOW HAVE TEMPS AT OR JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES...LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER MAV VS MET
VALUES /00Z ECS COOLER STILL/.

MUCAPE VALUES NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER POTENTIAL
EVEN FOR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP
WORDING AT JUST RAIN FOR NOW. MORE INTERESTING WEATHER EVENT
FROM THE DEEPENING PLAINS TROUGH SETS UP INTO THE EXTENDED.

TDP

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE MADE SLIGHT CHANGES WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM DUE TO CONTINUED
TIMING SHIFTS OF THE MODELS. THE 06Z GFS RUN PUSHED THE TIMING BACK
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS RUN NOW HAS THE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
RUN IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER. THIS WOULD PUT THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO
CURRENT POPS MONDAY NIGHT, MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TUESDAY...AND
INCREASE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS THERE.
AT THIS TIME THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY WITH THE FROPA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND
PUSH THE TIMING BACK TO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH PATCHES OF IFR CIGS. WILL
CONTINUE TREND WITH ONLY MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE MVFR EVERYWHERE. CIGS DROP AGAIN OVERNIGHT
WITH HINTS AT LIFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS IFR FOG. SOME HINTS AT
LIFR FOG. ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW MVFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS FAVORING THE E SIDE
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF NNW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY ALL 5KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM-HIGH ON WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CIGS BUT HIGH ON GENERAL TRENDS.
MEDIUM ON VSBY REMAINING 2SM OR GREATER.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          39  51  41  50 /   5  30  60  60
ATLANTA         43  52  43  52 /   5  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     36  49  39  48 /  10  20  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    36  52  42  52 /  10  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        45  55  46  59 /  20  40  50  40
GAINESVILLE     38  50  41  49 /   5  30  50  50
MACON           44  54  45  57 /  20  50  60  50
ROME            34  52  41  52 /   5  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  39  52  42  55 /   5  30  50  30
VIDALIA         46  53  48  60 /  20  60  80  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...TDP



000
FXUS62 KCHS 201847
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
147 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT...
THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGRESSING INTO NORTH GA AND THE SC
UPSTATE LATE THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM
HAS SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY NORTH...MOVING THE REGION OF DIVERGENCE
TO OUR NORTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. AT THE SURFACE WE HAVE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. WE EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE UPPER FORCING. BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...ONCE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OFF
THE COAST AND SOME DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN ALOFT...THE RAIN SHOULD
QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. CURRENT POP SCHEME LOOKS VERY
GOOD. CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. LATE IN THE DAY WE COULD SEE
A BRIEF REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES ONCE THE RAIN ENDS...BUT HIGHS
WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 50S.

TONIGHT WE LIKE THE SREF REPRESENTATION OF LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING
INLAND THIS EVENING WITH STRATUS PERHAPS BUILDING DOWN IN SOME
AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE ONLY ENOUGH TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN MORE CERTAIN AT THIS POINT. LACK OF
FORCING SUGGESTS ANY LIGHT RAINS AROUND TONIGHT WOULD BE PATCHY
WITH SOME DRIZZLE AROUND THE REGION. POPS ONLY IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE WERE MAINTAINED AND LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF SOMEWHAT DRY...BEFORE A PLUME OF
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT A GENERAL TREND OF RAMPING UP POPS
FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH POPS
APPROACHING 80-90 SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP STILL
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE LATEST TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOW TRACK...BUT
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK NEAR 60 ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM
THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ELEVATED
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER
50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COASTAL FRONT
LIFTS NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A
PERIOD OF WARMING SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST...WITH HIGH TEMPS APPROACHING THE
MID/UPPER 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPENING MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY
PWATS BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES ALONG WITH THE WARMER TEMPS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST
CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE SBCAPES APPROACH
800 J/KG AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR 7 C/KM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST. WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND IT. A MUCH
QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS THEN ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON
FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE ALL OVER THE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
AS POCKETS OF DRY AIR INTERACT WITH AN OTHERWISE DEEP MOIST LAYER
IN PLACE. SPORADIC IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL
RETURN TO VFR FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AS DRIER MID AND HIGH LEVEL
AIR SHIFTS IN. OVERNIGHT...THE MODELS ARE SPLIT REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS AND BUILD-DOWN FOG. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGY BOTH SUPPORT PREVAILING IFR CEILINGS AND
3-4SM VSBYS FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AT
LEAST MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AFTER 18Z SO WE DID NOT
INCORPORATE INTO THE CURRENT TAF SET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR
THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PINCHED NORTHEAST GRADIENT ONGOING DUE TO INLAND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF OUR COAST. THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT IS ACROSS THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE WATERS BUT WILL RIPPLE
DOWN THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
THIS AFTERNOON BUT ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS INLAND
WHILE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEVELOPS AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST. PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE COAST.
IN GENERAL...WINDS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 15-20 KT WITH SEAS UP TO
3-4 FT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY....CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS A
COASTAL FRONT LIFTS NORTH WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MOST WATERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHILE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE/BUILD WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD
FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT. A
GALE WATCH/WARNING COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-9 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING LATE.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY OVER ALL WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WINDS/SEAS
SHOULD LOWER BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL WATERS AROUND
DAYBREAK...THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH LATE WEEK.

SEA FOG...LOW STRATUS DECKS COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SEA FOG COULD DEVELOP AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR
ARRIVES ATOP MID/UPPER 50 SHELF WATER TEMPS WITHIN A SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY PRIOR TO WINDS INCREASING
ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...
GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AT
LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...DPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS62 KCAE 201837
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
137 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAIN HAS ALMOST CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN
OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BUT THIS TOO SHOULD SHIFT OUT BY 2 PM.
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT MOVED MUCH TODAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN BUT MAY RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET NOW THAT THE
RAIN HAS CLEARED. LOW CLOUDS EXTEND WELL BACK INTO ALABAMA AND
WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS DO NOT THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
BREAK OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THEREFORE LACK OF UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT
BUT DO THINK THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG THAT DEVELOPS AND POSSIBLY
SOME DENSE FOG IN TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY
BE AREAS OF FOG AS INDICATED BY THE GFS MOS. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE TONIGHT.

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS A RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY MAINLY LATE AS
MOISTURE BECOMES DEEPER AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DISPLAYING
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW LATE MONDAY BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE POP FORECAST. THE GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW. THE
GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURE WERE CLOSE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT AND NOW DISPLAY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. THE WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

IF THE FORECAST AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY H85 WINDS OF 40 TO
60 KNOTS. THE SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE
ECMWF KEEPS MUCH OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
POPS ARE JUST 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE HAS
STRENGTHENED THE INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW IT
SO AM EXPECTING THE MVFR/IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO OPTIMISTIC WITH CIGS THUS FAR
TODAY AND MET GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH THE LOW CIGS SO
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THAT GUIDANCE AND THE LAV GUIDANCE LOWERING
CIGS TO IFR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 04Z WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS
OGB/AGS/DNL. VSBYS ALSO LIKELY TO DROP INTO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
04Z-12Z TIME FRAME. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
GULF COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC





000
FXUS62 KCAE 201837
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
137 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAIN HAS ALMOST CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN
OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BUT THIS TOO SHOULD SHIFT OUT BY 2 PM.
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT MOVED MUCH TODAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN BUT MAY RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET NOW THAT THE
RAIN HAS CLEARED. LOW CLOUDS EXTEND WELL BACK INTO ALABAMA AND
WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS DO NOT THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
BREAK OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THEREFORE LACK OF UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT
BUT DO THINK THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG THAT DEVELOPS AND POSSIBLY
SOME DENSE FOG IN TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY
BE AREAS OF FOG AS INDICATED BY THE GFS MOS. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE TONIGHT.

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS A RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY MAINLY LATE AS
MOISTURE BECOMES DEEPER AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DISPLAYING
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW LATE MONDAY BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE POP FORECAST. THE GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW. THE
GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURE WERE CLOSE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT AND NOW DISPLAY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. THE WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

IF THE FORECAST AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY H85 WINDS OF 40 TO
60 KNOTS. THE SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE
ECMWF KEEPS MUCH OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
POPS ARE JUST 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE HAS
STRENGTHENED THE INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW IT
SO AM EXPECTING THE MVFR/IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO OPTIMISTIC WITH CIGS THUS FAR
TODAY AND MET GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH THE LOW CIGS SO
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THAT GUIDANCE AND THE LAV GUIDANCE LOWERING
CIGS TO IFR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 04Z WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS
OGB/AGS/DNL. VSBYS ALSO LIKELY TO DROP INTO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
04Z-12Z TIME FRAME. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
GULF COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC





000
FXUS62 KCAE 201837
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
137 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAIN HAS ALMOST CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN
OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BUT THIS TOO SHOULD SHIFT OUT BY 2 PM.
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT MOVED MUCH TODAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN BUT MAY RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET NOW THAT THE
RAIN HAS CLEARED. LOW CLOUDS EXTEND WELL BACK INTO ALABAMA AND
WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS DO NOT THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
BREAK OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THEREFORE LACK OF UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT
BUT DO THINK THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG THAT DEVELOPS AND POSSIBLY
SOME DENSE FOG IN TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY
BE AREAS OF FOG AS INDICATED BY THE GFS MOS. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE TONIGHT.

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS A RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY MAINLY LATE AS
MOISTURE BECOMES DEEPER AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DISPLAYING
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW LATE MONDAY BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE POP FORECAST. THE GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW. THE
GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURE WERE CLOSE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT AND NOW DISPLAY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. THE WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

IF THE FORECAST AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY H85 WINDS OF 40 TO
60 KNOTS. THE SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE
ECMWF KEEPS MUCH OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
POPS ARE JUST 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE HAS
STRENGTHENED THE INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW IT
SO AM EXPECTING THE MVFR/IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO OPTIMISTIC WITH CIGS THUS FAR
TODAY AND MET GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH THE LOW CIGS SO
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THAT GUIDANCE AND THE LAV GUIDANCE LOWERING
CIGS TO IFR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 04Z WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS
OGB/AGS/DNL. VSBYS ALSO LIKELY TO DROP INTO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
04Z-12Z TIME FRAME. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
GULF COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC





000
FXUS62 KCAE 201837
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
137 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAIN HAS ALMOST CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN
OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BUT THIS TOO SHOULD SHIFT OUT BY 2 PM.
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT MOVED MUCH TODAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN BUT MAY RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET NOW THAT THE
RAIN HAS CLEARED. LOW CLOUDS EXTEND WELL BACK INTO ALABAMA AND
WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS DO NOT THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
BREAK OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THEREFORE LACK OF UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT
BUT DO THINK THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG THAT DEVELOPS AND POSSIBLY
SOME DENSE FOG IN TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY
BE AREAS OF FOG AS INDICATED BY THE GFS MOS. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE TONIGHT.

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS A RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY MAINLY LATE AS
MOISTURE BECOMES DEEPER AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DISPLAYING
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW LATE MONDAY BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE POP FORECAST. THE GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW. THE
GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURE WERE CLOSE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT AND NOW DISPLAY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. THE WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

IF THE FORECAST AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY H85 WINDS OF 40 TO
60 KNOTS. THE SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE
ECMWF KEEPS MUCH OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
POPS ARE JUST 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE HAS
STRENGTHENED THE INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW IT
SO AM EXPECTING THE MVFR/IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO OPTIMISTIC WITH CIGS THUS FAR
TODAY AND MET GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOING WELL WITH THE LOW CIGS SO
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THAT GUIDANCE AND THE LAV GUIDANCE LOWERING
CIGS TO IFR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 04Z WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS
OGB/AGS/DNL. VSBYS ALSO LIKELY TO DROP INTO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
04Z-12Z TIME FRAME. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
GULF COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC





000
FXUS62 KFFC 201737 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1237 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...

MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING ARE WITH POPS...INCREASED POPS IN
AREAS WHERE RAIN CONTINUES AND IS EXPECTED BUT ALSO SPEEDED UP
THE EXIT ESPECIALLY FROM METRO ATLANTA AND OTHER NORTHERN ZONES
BASED ON TRENDS. TEMPERATURES LOOK OKAY UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE ANY BREAKS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE GRIDS LOOK GOOD...PRODUCTS WILL BE REFRESHED
SHORTLY.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITIES ARE VERY LOW THIS MORNING SO
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITH THESE SHOWERS. AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH NOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES SHIFTS EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA AND
BEGINS WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER GA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NEXT RAIN MAKER MOVES IN. NEXT SHORTWAVE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST AND WILL MOVE NE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING SUN
MORNING INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WEDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM INSTABILITIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM EITHER.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE LONG TERM.

A DAMMED AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR LIKELY TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WITH POPS DECREASING SOME FOR MONDAY.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT ARE RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE RUNNING NEAR
TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MAIN CONCERN THEN BECOMES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE
GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH THE GFS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER BUT WITH BOTH
MODELS SEEMING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A 40-50
KNOT 850MB JET WITH A STRONG UPPER JET. CAPES LOOK TO BE THE 200-800
RANGE WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS. THE CAPES DOES NOT A LINE
ALL THAT WELL WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.

DEPENDING ON TIMING SOME THREAT COULD LINGER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY N GA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY OVER N GA
WILL BECOME A CHANCE OF FLURRIES LATE NIGHT. IT LOOKS THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO NO MORE
THAN FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE EUROPEAN MUCH WETTER...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH PATCHES OF IFR CIGS. WILL
CONTINUE TREND WITH ONLY MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE MVFR EVERYWHERE. CIGS DROP AGAIN OVERNIGHT
WITH HINTS AT LIFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS IFR FOG. SOME HINTS AT
LIFR FOG. ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW MVFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS FAVORING THE E SIDE
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF NNW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY ALL 5KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM-HIGH ON WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CIGS BUT HIGH ON GENERAL TRENDS.
MEDIUM ON VSBY REMAINING 2SM OR GREATER.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  38  51  40 / 100   5  30  60
ATLANTA         53  42  52  43 / 100   5  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     49  36  50  39 /  30  10  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    53  37  52  40 /  50  10  20  30
COLUMBUS        55  45  55  46 / 100  20  40  50
GAINESVILLE     50  38  50  41 /  70   5  30  50
MACON           55  43  54  46 / 100  20  50  60
ROME            52  35  54  40 /  10   5  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  54  37  52  42 / 100   5  30  50
VIDALIA         56  45  56  49 / 100  20  60  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 201737 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1237 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...

MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING ARE WITH POPS...INCREASED POPS IN
AREAS WHERE RAIN CONTINUES AND IS EXPECTED BUT ALSO SPEEDED UP
THE EXIT ESPECIALLY FROM METRO ATLANTA AND OTHER NORTHERN ZONES
BASED ON TRENDS. TEMPERATURES LOOK OKAY UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE ANY BREAKS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE GRIDS LOOK GOOD...PRODUCTS WILL BE REFRESHED
SHORTLY.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITIES ARE VERY LOW THIS MORNING SO
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITH THESE SHOWERS. AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH NOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES SHIFTS EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA AND
BEGINS WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER GA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NEXT RAIN MAKER MOVES IN. NEXT SHORTWAVE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST AND WILL MOVE NE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING SUN
MORNING INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WEDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM INSTABILITIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM EITHER.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE LONG TERM.

A DAMMED AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR LIKELY TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WITH POPS DECREASING SOME FOR MONDAY.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT ARE RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE RUNNING NEAR
TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MAIN CONCERN THEN BECOMES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE
GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH THE GFS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER BUT WITH BOTH
MODELS SEEMING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A 40-50
KNOT 850MB JET WITH A STRONG UPPER JET. CAPES LOOK TO BE THE 200-800
RANGE WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS. THE CAPES DOES NOT A LINE
ALL THAT WELL WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.

DEPENDING ON TIMING SOME THREAT COULD LINGER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY N GA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY OVER N GA
WILL BECOME A CHANCE OF FLURRIES LATE NIGHT. IT LOOKS THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO NO MORE
THAN FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE EUROPEAN MUCH WETTER...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH PATCHES OF IFR CIGS. WILL
CONTINUE TREND WITH ONLY MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE MVFR EVERYWHERE. CIGS DROP AGAIN OVERNIGHT
WITH HINTS AT LIFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS IFR FOG. SOME HINTS AT
LIFR FOG. ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW MVFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS FAVORING THE E SIDE
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF NNW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY ALL 5KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM-HIGH ON WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CIGS BUT HIGH ON GENERAL TRENDS.
MEDIUM ON VSBY REMAINING 2SM OR GREATER.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  38  51  40 / 100   5  30  60
ATLANTA         53  42  52  43 / 100   5  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     49  36  50  39 /  30  10  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    53  37  52  40 /  50  10  20  30
COLUMBUS        55  45  55  46 / 100  20  40  50
GAINESVILLE     50  38  50  41 /  70   5  30  50
MACON           55  43  54  46 / 100  20  50  60
ROME            52  35  54  40 /  10   5  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  54  37  52  42 / 100   5  30  50
VIDALIA         56  45  56  49 / 100  20  60  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 201608 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1108 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OBSERVED ACROSS THE
REGION. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN PUSHING
INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AT THIS TIME AND RAIN SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST BY 2 PM. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS
EXTENDING BACK THROUGH ALABAMA SO DO NOT FORESEE MUCH SUNSHINE
TODAY AND THAT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE UPDATED POPS TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS THEN DRY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY
BE AREAS OF FOG AS INDICATED BY THE GFS MOS. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE TONIGHT.

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS A RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY MAINLY LATE AS
MOISTURE BECOMES DEEPER AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DISPLAYING
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW LATE MONDAY BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE POP FORECAST. THE GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW. THE
GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURE WERE CLOSE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT AND NOW DISPLAY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. THE WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

IF THE FORECAST AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY H85 WINDS OF 40 TO
60 KNOTS. THE SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE
ECMWF KEEPS MUCH OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
POPS ARE JUST 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT EARLY EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO MVFR/IFR
THIS EVENING.

SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND RAIN SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 12PM-2PM.
MVFR/IFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALL TERMINALS AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVEMENT
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOWER CIGS RETURN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A
PREVAILING EAST-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF COAST SYSTEM
CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 201608 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1108 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OBSERVED ACROSS THE
REGION. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN PUSHING
INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AT THIS TIME AND RAIN SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST BY 2 PM. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS
EXTENDING BACK THROUGH ALABAMA SO DO NOT FORESEE MUCH SUNSHINE
TODAY AND THAT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE UPDATED POPS TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS THEN DRY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY
BE AREAS OF FOG AS INDICATED BY THE GFS MOS. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE TONIGHT.

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS A RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY MAINLY LATE AS
MOISTURE BECOMES DEEPER AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DISPLAYING
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW LATE MONDAY BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE POP FORECAST. THE GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW. THE
GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURE WERE CLOSE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT AND NOW DISPLAY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. THE WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

IF THE FORECAST AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY H85 WINDS OF 40 TO
60 KNOTS. THE SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE
ECMWF KEEPS MUCH OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
POPS ARE JUST 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT EARLY EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO MVFR/IFR
THIS EVENING.

SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND RAIN SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 12PM-2PM.
MVFR/IFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALL TERMINALS AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVEMENT
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOWER CIGS RETURN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A
PREVAILING EAST-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF COAST SYSTEM
CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 201541
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1041 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT...
THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGRESSING INTO NORTH GA AND THE SC
UPSTATE LATE THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM
HAS SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY NORTH...MOVING THE REGION OF DIVERGENCE
TO OUR NORTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. AT THE SURFACE WE HAVE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. WE EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE UPPER FORCING. BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...ONCE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OFF
THE COAST AND SOME DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN ALOFT...THE RAIN SHOULD
QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. CURRENT POP SCHEME LOOKS VERY
GOOD. CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. LATE IN THE DAY WE COULD SEE
A BRIEF REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES ONCE THE RAIN ENDS...BUT HIGHS
WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 50S.

TONIGHT WE LIKE THE SREF REPRESENTATION OF LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING
INLAND THIS EVENING WITH STRATUS PERHAPS BUILDING DOWN IN SOME
AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE ONLY ENOUGH TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN MORE CERTAIN AT THIS POINT. LACK OF
FORCING SUGGESTS ANY LIGHT RAINS AROUND TONIGHT WOULD BE PATCHY
WITH SOME DRIZZLE AROUND THE REGION. POPS ONLY IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE WERE MAINTAINED AND LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF SOMEWHAT DRY...BEFORE A PLUME OF
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT A GENERAL TREND OF RAMPING UP POPS
FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH POPS
APPROACHING 80-90 SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP STILL
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE LATEST TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOW TRACK...BUT
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK NEAR 60 ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM
THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ELEVATED
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER
50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COASTAL FRONT
LIFTS NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A
PERIOD OF WARMING SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST...WITH HIGH TEMPS APPROACHING THE
MID/UPPER 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPENING MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY
PWATS BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES ALONG WITH THE WARMER TEMPS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST
CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE SBCAPES APPROACH
800 J/KG AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR 7 C/KM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST. WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND IT. A MUCH
QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS THEN ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON
FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CIGS ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING PER LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT KCHS/KSAV. AS MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING AND SOME INFLUX OF ATLC MOISTURE...
CIGS SHOULD FALL TO MVFR LEVELS BY MIDDAY WITH A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
THIS AFTERNOON AT EITHER TERMINAL. CONFIDENCE IN LOWER CIGS INCREASES
TONIGHT AS A WEDGE INVERSION STRENGTHENS AND STRATUS EXPANDS AND
LOWERS. FORECAST 06Z SOUNDINGS NOT CLEAR CUT HOWEVER AND VARY GREATER
FROM GFS SOUNDINGS AT THIS TIME. WE TRENDED INTO IFR RANGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON THIS TAF CYCLE AND INTRODUCED MVFR VSBYS IN FOG. RAIN
SHOULD TAPER OFF AT KCHS LATE TODAY AND BRUSH KSAV THROUGH EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF
FROPA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF
STREAM TODAY AND DRIFTING ENE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL WEDGE
IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW AND BEGIN TO PINCH THE
PRES GRADIENT OFF THE COAST. A 4-6 MILLIBAR PRES GRADIENT FROM THE
GULF STREAM TO THE LAND WILL LIKELY ANCHOR A NE FLOW IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE INTO TONIGHT. SEAS STARTING OFF ONLY 1-2 FT AT GRAYS
REEF EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT.
SLIGHT SURGING ALREADY NOTED AT DAYBREAK ALONG CHARLESTON COUNTY
AND MODEST PINCHING IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE
LIKELY SEAWARD FROM THE SAVANNAH AND CHARLESTON BUOYS LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS INLAND
WHILE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEVELOPS AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST. PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE COAST.
IN GENERAL...WINDS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 15-20 KT WITH SEAS UP TO
3-4 FT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY....CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS A
COASTAL FRONT LIFTS NORTH WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MOST WATERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHILE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE/BUILD WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD
FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT. A
GALE WATCH/WARNING COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-9 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING LATE.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY OVER ALL WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WINDS/SEAS
SHOULD LOWER BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL WATERS AROUND
DAYBREAK...THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH LATE WEEK.

SEA FOG...LOW STRATUS DECKS COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SEA FOG COULD DEVELOP AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR
ARRIVES ATOP MID/UPPER 50 SHELF WATER TEMPS WITHIN A SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY PRIOR TO WINDS INCREASING
ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...
GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AT
LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 201541
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1041 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT...
THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGRESSING INTO NORTH GA AND THE SC
UPSTATE LATE THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM
HAS SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY NORTH...MOVING THE REGION OF DIVERGENCE
TO OUR NORTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. AT THE SURFACE WE HAVE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. WE EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE UPPER FORCING. BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...ONCE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OFF
THE COAST AND SOME DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN ALOFT...THE RAIN SHOULD
QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. CURRENT POP SCHEME LOOKS VERY
GOOD. CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. LATE IN THE DAY WE COULD SEE
A BRIEF REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES ONCE THE RAIN ENDS...BUT HIGHS
WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 50S.

TONIGHT WE LIKE THE SREF REPRESENTATION OF LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING
INLAND THIS EVENING WITH STRATUS PERHAPS BUILDING DOWN IN SOME
AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE ONLY ENOUGH TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN MORE CERTAIN AT THIS POINT. LACK OF
FORCING SUGGESTS ANY LIGHT RAINS AROUND TONIGHT WOULD BE PATCHY
WITH SOME DRIZZLE AROUND THE REGION. POPS ONLY IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE WERE MAINTAINED AND LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF SOMEWHAT DRY...BEFORE A PLUME OF
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT A GENERAL TREND OF RAMPING UP POPS
FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH POPS
APPROACHING 80-90 SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP STILL
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE LATEST TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOW TRACK...BUT
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK NEAR 60 ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM
THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ELEVATED
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER
50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COASTAL FRONT
LIFTS NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A
PERIOD OF WARMING SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST...WITH HIGH TEMPS APPROACHING THE
MID/UPPER 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPENING MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY
PWATS BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES ALONG WITH THE WARMER TEMPS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST
CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE SBCAPES APPROACH
800 J/KG AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR 7 C/KM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST. WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND IT. A MUCH
QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS THEN ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON
FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CIGS ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING PER LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT KCHS/KSAV. AS MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING AND SOME INFLUX OF ATLC MOISTURE...
CIGS SHOULD FALL TO MVFR LEVELS BY MIDDAY WITH A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
THIS AFTERNOON AT EITHER TERMINAL. CONFIDENCE IN LOWER CIGS INCREASES
TONIGHT AS A WEDGE INVERSION STRENGTHENS AND STRATUS EXPANDS AND
LOWERS. FORECAST 06Z SOUNDINGS NOT CLEAR CUT HOWEVER AND VARY GREATER
FROM GFS SOUNDINGS AT THIS TIME. WE TRENDED INTO IFR RANGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON THIS TAF CYCLE AND INTRODUCED MVFR VSBYS IN FOG. RAIN
SHOULD TAPER OFF AT KCHS LATE TODAY AND BRUSH KSAV THROUGH EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF
FROPA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF
STREAM TODAY AND DRIFTING ENE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL WEDGE
IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW AND BEGIN TO PINCH THE
PRES GRADIENT OFF THE COAST. A 4-6 MILLIBAR PRES GRADIENT FROM THE
GULF STREAM TO THE LAND WILL LIKELY ANCHOR A NE FLOW IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE INTO TONIGHT. SEAS STARTING OFF ONLY 1-2 FT AT GRAYS
REEF EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT.
SLIGHT SURGING ALREADY NOTED AT DAYBREAK ALONG CHARLESTON COUNTY
AND MODEST PINCHING IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE
LIKELY SEAWARD FROM THE SAVANNAH AND CHARLESTON BUOYS LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS INLAND
WHILE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEVELOPS AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST. PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE COAST.
IN GENERAL...WINDS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 15-20 KT WITH SEAS UP TO
3-4 FT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY....CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS A
COASTAL FRONT LIFTS NORTH WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MOST WATERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHILE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE/BUILD WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD
FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT. A
GALE WATCH/WARNING COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-9 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING LATE.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY OVER ALL WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WINDS/SEAS
SHOULD LOWER BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL WATERS AROUND
DAYBREAK...THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH LATE WEEK.

SEA FOG...LOW STRATUS DECKS COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SEA FOG COULD DEVELOP AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR
ARRIVES ATOP MID/UPPER 50 SHELF WATER TEMPS WITHIN A SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY PRIOR TO WINDS INCREASING
ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...
GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AT
LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KFFC 201536 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1036 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING ARE WITH POPS...INCREASED POPS IN
AREAS WHERE RAIN CONTINUES AND IS EXPECTED BUT ALSO SPEEDED UP
THE EXIT ESPECIALLY FROM METRO ATLANTA AND OTHER NORTHERN ZONES
BASED ON TRENDS. TEMPERATURES LOOK OKAY UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE ANY BREAKS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE GRIDS LOOK GOOD...PRODUCTS WILL BE REFRESHED
SHORTLY.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITIES ARE VERY LOW THIS MORNING SO
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITH THESE SHOWERS. AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH NOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES SHIFTS EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA AND
BEGINS WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER GA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NEXT RAIN MAKER MOVES IN. NEXT SHORTWAVE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST AND WILL MOVE NE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING SUN
MORNING INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WEDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM INSTABILITIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM EITHER.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE LONG TERM.

A DAMMED AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR LIKELY TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WITH POPS DECREASING SOME FOR MONDAY.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT ARE RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE RUNNING NEAR
TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MAIN CONCERN THEN BECOMES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE
GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH THE GFS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER BUT WITH BOTH
MODELS SEEMING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A 40-50
KNOT 850MB JET WITH A STRONG UPPER JET. CAPES LOOK TO BE THE 200-800
RANGE WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS. THE CAPES DOES NOT A LINE
ALL THAT WELL WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.

DEPENDING ON TIMING SOME THREAT COULD LINGER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY N GA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY OVER N GA
WILL BECOME A CHANCE OF FLURRIES LATE NIGHT. IT LOOKS THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO NO MORE
THAN FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE EUROPEAN MUCH WETTER...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

BDL

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SEEING THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN JUST
EAST OF BHM. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AND THINKING THEY MAY NOT
GET AS LOW AS EARLIER EXPECTED. THINKING THEY MAY STAY VFR BUT AM
CONCERNED ABOUT THE ISOLATED AREAS OF LOWER CEILINGS OVER AL.
THINKING THE CEILINGS OVER THE ATL AREA WILL STAY VFR...BUT WILL
MONITOR THOSE LOWER CEILINGS OVER AL TO SEE WHERE THEY GO. VSBYS
SHOULD STAY VFR BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN
STRONGER SHOWERS. RAIN WILL BE ENDING ACROSS THE ATL AREA BY
14-16Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY NE AT 8KT OF LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  38  51  40 / 100  10  30  80
ATLANTA         53  42  52  43 / 100  10  30  70
BLAIRSVILLE     49  36  50  39 /  30  10  20  80
CARTERSVILLE    53  37  52  40 /  50  10  20  60
COLUMBUS        55  45  55  46 / 100  20  30  70
GAINESVILLE     50  38  50  41 /  70   5  30  80
MACON           55  43  54  46 / 100  20  30  80
ROME            52  35  54  40 /  10   5  20  60
PEACHTREE CITY  54  37  52  42 / 100  10  30  70
VIDALIA         56  45  56  49 / 100  20  40  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 201536 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1036 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING ARE WITH POPS...INCREASED POPS IN
AREAS WHERE RAIN CONTINUES AND IS EXPECTED BUT ALSO SPEEDED UP
THE EXIT ESPECIALLY FROM METRO ATLANTA AND OTHER NORTHERN ZONES
BASED ON TRENDS. TEMPERATURES LOOK OKAY UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE ANY BREAKS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE GRIDS LOOK GOOD...PRODUCTS WILL BE REFRESHED
SHORTLY.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITIES ARE VERY LOW THIS MORNING SO
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITH THESE SHOWERS. AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH NOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES SHIFTS EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA AND
BEGINS WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER GA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NEXT RAIN MAKER MOVES IN. NEXT SHORTWAVE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST AND WILL MOVE NE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING SUN
MORNING INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WEDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM INSTABILITIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM EITHER.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE LONG TERM.

A DAMMED AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR LIKELY TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WITH POPS DECREASING SOME FOR MONDAY.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT ARE RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE RUNNING NEAR
TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MAIN CONCERN THEN BECOMES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE
GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH THE GFS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER BUT WITH BOTH
MODELS SEEMING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A 40-50
KNOT 850MB JET WITH A STRONG UPPER JET. CAPES LOOK TO BE THE 200-800
RANGE WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS. THE CAPES DOES NOT A LINE
ALL THAT WELL WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.

DEPENDING ON TIMING SOME THREAT COULD LINGER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY N GA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY OVER N GA
WILL BECOME A CHANCE OF FLURRIES LATE NIGHT. IT LOOKS THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO NO MORE
THAN FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE EUROPEAN MUCH WETTER...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

BDL

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SEEING THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN JUST
EAST OF BHM. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AND THINKING THEY MAY NOT
GET AS LOW AS EARLIER EXPECTED. THINKING THEY MAY STAY VFR BUT AM
CONCERNED ABOUT THE ISOLATED AREAS OF LOWER CEILINGS OVER AL.
THINKING THE CEILINGS OVER THE ATL AREA WILL STAY VFR...BUT WILL
MONITOR THOSE LOWER CEILINGS OVER AL TO SEE WHERE THEY GO. VSBYS
SHOULD STAY VFR BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN
STRONGER SHOWERS. RAIN WILL BE ENDING ACROSS THE ATL AREA BY
14-16Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY NE AT 8KT OF LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  38  51  40 / 100  10  30  80
ATLANTA         53  42  52  43 / 100  10  30  70
BLAIRSVILLE     49  36  50  39 /  30  10  20  80
CARTERSVILLE    53  37  52  40 /  50  10  20  60
COLUMBUS        55  45  55  46 / 100  20  30  70
GAINESVILLE     50  38  50  41 /  70   5  30  80
MACON           55  43  54  46 / 100  20  30  80
ROME            52  35  54  40 /  10   5  20  60
PEACHTREE CITY  54  37  52  42 / 100  10  30  70
VIDALIA         56  45  56  49 / 100  20  40  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 201226
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
726 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT...
THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST
ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WAS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AS A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE SWINGS ENE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. SURFACE HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLC REGION TODAY
WHILE WEAK SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLONGENESIS TAKES FORM OFF OUR COAST.
COOLER N TO NE FLOW ENSUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINS START THE DAY. THIS IS A STRONG SIGNAL THAT
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE MUCH THIS MORNING. AS THE BACK EDGE OF
THE RAIN SHIELD SLIDES INTO THE PICTURE BY THIS AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL
FOR TEMP RECOVERY LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED AND LIMITED TO SOUTH GEORGIA.
A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF DRIER AIR ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO ABOUT
8 KFT WORKS IN FROM THE WSW AND EFFECTIVELY SHUTS DOWN THE RAINS
FOR ALL BUT PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE CHARLESTON AREA BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON. IT IS A BIT UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS DRIER AIR
ABOVE WILL TRAP A LOT OF LOWER CLOUDS INITIALLY BUT WITH PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING LATER IN THE DAY...CONFIDENCE
IS VERY GOOD THAT CLOUDS PREVAIL FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL
TRIM DOWNWARD INTO LIKELY RANGES TO THE N OF I-16 BY 18Z AND THEN
ONLY CHANCE POPS BY SUNSET ACROSS THE CHARLESTON AREA. QPF LIMITED
TO AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH NORTHERN ZONES WITH MANY AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-16 MANAGING TO MEASURE WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS.

TONIGHT WE LIKE THE SREF REPRESENTATION OF LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING
INLAND THIS EVENING WITH STRATUS PERHAPS BUILDING DOWN IN SOME
AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE ONLY ENOUGH TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN MORE CERTAIN AT THIS POINT. LACK OF
FORCING SUGGESTS ANY LIGHT RAINS AROUND TONIGHT WOULD BE PATCHY WITH
SOME DRIZZLE AROUND THE REGION. POPS ONLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WERE
MAINTAINED AND LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF SOMEWHAT DRY...BEFORE A PLUME OF
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT A GENERAL TREND OF RAMPING UP POPS
FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH POPS
APPROACHING 80-90 SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP STILL
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE LATEST TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOW TRACK...BUT
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK NEAR 60 ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM
THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ELEVATED
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER
50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COASTAL FRONT
LIFTS NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A
PERIOD OF WARMING SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST...WITH HIGH TEMPS APPROACHING THE
MID/UPPER 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPENING MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY
PWATS BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES ALONG WITH THE WARMER TEMPS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST
CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE SBCAPES APPROACH
800 J/KG AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR 7 C/KM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST. WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND IT. A MUCH
QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS THEN ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON
FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CIGS ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING PER LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT KCHS/KSAV. AS MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING AND SOME INFLUX OF ATLC MOISTURE...
CIGS SHOULD FALL TO MVFR LEVELS BY MIDDAY WITH A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
THIS AFTERNOON AT EITHER TERMINAL. CONFIDENCE IN LOWER CIGS INCREASES
TONIGHT AS A WEDGE INVERSION STRENGTHENS AND STRATUS EXPANDS AND
LOWERS. FORECAST 06Z SOUNDINGS NOT CLEAR CUT HOWEVER AND VARY GREATER
FROM GFS SOUNDINGS AT THIS TIME. WE TRENDED INTO IFR RANGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON THIS TAF CYCLE AND INTRODUCED MVFR VSBYS IN FOG. RAIN
SHOULD TAPER OFF AT KCHS LATE TODAY AND BRUSH KSAV THROUGH EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF
FROPA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF
STREAM TODAY AND DRIFTING ENE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL WEDGE
IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW AND BEGIN TO PINCH THE
PRES GRADIENT OFF THE COAST. A 4-6 MILLIBAR PRES GRADIENT FROM THE
GULF STREAM TO THE LAND WILL LIKELY ANCHOR A NE FLOW IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE INTO TONIGHT. SEAS STARTING OFF ONLY 1-2 FT AT GRAYS
REEF EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT.
SLIGHT SURGING ALREADY NOTED AT DAYBREAK ALONG CHARLESTON COUNTY
AND MODEST PINCHING IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE
LIKELY SEAWARD FROM THE SAVANNAH AND CHARLESTON BUOYS LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS INLAND
WHILE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEVELOPS AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST. PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE COAST.
IN GENERAL...WINDS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 15-20 KT WITH SEAS UP TO
3-4 FT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY....CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS A
COASTAL FRONT LIFTS NORTH WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MOST WATERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHILE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE/BUILD WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD
FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT. A
GALE WATCH/WARNING COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-9 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING LATE.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY OVER ALL WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WINDS/SEAS
SHOULD LOWER BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL WATERS AROUND
DAYBREAK...THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH LATE WEEK.

SEA FOG...LOW STRATUS DECKS COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SEA FOG COULD DEVELOP AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR
ARRIVES ATOP MID/UPPER 50 SHELF WATER TEMPS WITHIN A SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY PRIOR TO WINDS INCREASING
ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...
GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AT
LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KFFC 201127
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
627 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITIES ARE VERY LOW THIS MORNING SO
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITH THESE SHOWERS. AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH NOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES SHIFTS EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA AND
BEGINS WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER GA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NEXT RAIN MAKER MOVES IN. NEXT SHORTWAVE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST AND WILL MOVE NE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING SUN
MORNING INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WEDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM INSTABILITIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM EITHER.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE LONG TERM.

A DAMMED AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR LIKELY TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WITH POPS DECREASING SOME FOR MONDAY.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT ARE RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE RUNNING NEAR
TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MAIN CONCERN THEN BECOMES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE
GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH THE GFS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER BUT WITH BOTH
MODELS SEEMING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A 40-50
KNOT 850MB JET WITH A STRONG UPPER JET. CAPES LOOK TO BE THE 200-800
RANGE WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS. THE CAPES DOES NOT A LINE
ALL THAT WELL WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.

DEPENDING ON TIMING SOME THREAT COULD LINGER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY N GA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY OVER N GA
WILL BECOME A CHANCE OF FLURRIES LATE NIGHT. IT LOOKS THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO NO MORE
THAN FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE EUROPEAN MUCH WETTER...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SEEING THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN JUST
EAST OF BHM. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AND THINKING THEY MAY NOT
GET AS LOW AS EARLIER EXPECTED. THINKING THEY MAY STAY VFR BUT AM
CONCERNED ABOUT THE ISOLATED AREAS OF LOWER CEILINGS OVER AL.
THINKING THE CEILINGS OVER THE ATL AREA WILL STAY VFR...BUT WILL
MONITOR THOSE LOWER CEILINGS OVER AL TO SEE WHERE THEY GO. VSBYS
SHOULD STAY VFR BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN
STRONGER SHOWERS. RAIN WILL BE ENDING ACROSS THE ATL AREA BY
14-16Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY NE AT 8KT OF LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  38  51  40 /  70  10  30  80
ATLANTA         53  42  52  43 /  70  10  30  70
BLAIRSVILLE     49  36  50  39 /  50  10  20  80
CARTERSVILLE    53  37  52  40 /  60  10  20  60
COLUMBUS        55  45  55  46 /  90  20  30  70
GAINESVILLE     50  38  50  41 /  60   5  30  80
MACON           55  43  54  46 /  90  20  30  80
ROME            52  35  54  40 /  50   5  20  60
PEACHTREE CITY  54  37  52  42 /  80  10  30  70
VIDALIA         56  45  56  49 /  80  20  40  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 201127
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
627 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITIES ARE VERY LOW THIS MORNING SO
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITH THESE SHOWERS. AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH NOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES SHIFTS EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA AND
BEGINS WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER GA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NEXT RAIN MAKER MOVES IN. NEXT SHORTWAVE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST AND WILL MOVE NE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING SUN
MORNING INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WEDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM INSTABILITIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM EITHER.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE LONG TERM.

A DAMMED AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR LIKELY TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WITH POPS DECREASING SOME FOR MONDAY.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT ARE RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE RUNNING NEAR
TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MAIN CONCERN THEN BECOMES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE
GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH THE GFS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER BUT WITH BOTH
MODELS SEEMING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A 40-50
KNOT 850MB JET WITH A STRONG UPPER JET. CAPES LOOK TO BE THE 200-800
RANGE WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS. THE CAPES DOES NOT A LINE
ALL THAT WELL WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.

DEPENDING ON TIMING SOME THREAT COULD LINGER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY N GA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY OVER N GA
WILL BECOME A CHANCE OF FLURRIES LATE NIGHT. IT LOOKS THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO NO MORE
THAN FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE EUROPEAN MUCH WETTER...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SEEING THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN JUST
EAST OF BHM. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AND THINKING THEY MAY NOT
GET AS LOW AS EARLIER EXPECTED. THINKING THEY MAY STAY VFR BUT AM
CONCERNED ABOUT THE ISOLATED AREAS OF LOWER CEILINGS OVER AL.
THINKING THE CEILINGS OVER THE ATL AREA WILL STAY VFR...BUT WILL
MONITOR THOSE LOWER CEILINGS OVER AL TO SEE WHERE THEY GO. VSBYS
SHOULD STAY VFR BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN
STRONGER SHOWERS. RAIN WILL BE ENDING ACROSS THE ATL AREA BY
14-16Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY NE AT 8KT OF LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  38  51  40 /  70  10  30  80
ATLANTA         53  42  52  43 /  70  10  30  70
BLAIRSVILLE     49  36  50  39 /  50  10  20  80
CARTERSVILLE    53  37  52  40 /  60  10  20  60
COLUMBUS        55  45  55  46 /  90  20  30  70
GAINESVILLE     50  38  50  41 /  60   5  30  80
MACON           55  43  54  46 /  90  20  30  80
ROME            52  35  54  40 /  50   5  20  60
PEACHTREE CITY  54  37  52  42 /  80  10  30  70
VIDALIA         56  45  56  49 /  80  20  40  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KCAE 201044
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
544 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE MODELS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF TODAY. WE FORECASTED THE
HIGHEST POPS EARLY AND IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION CLOSER TO THE
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHALLOW MOISTURE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A DIMINISHED RAIN CHANCE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY
BE AREAS OF FOG AS INDICATED BY THE GFS MOS. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS A RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY MAINLY LATE AS
MOISTURE BECOMES DEEPER AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DISPLAYING
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW LATE MONDAY BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE POP FORECAST. THE GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW. THE
GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURE WERE CLOSE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT AND NOW DISPLAY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. THE WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

IF THE FORECAST AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY H85 WINDS OF 40 TO
60 KNOTS. THE SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE
ECMWF KEEPS MUCH OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
POPS ARE JUST 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 14Z...CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF
TODAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING IFR THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LATEST RADAR
COMPOSITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING LIGHT RAIN AFFECTING ALL TAF
SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z-13Z AS WEDGE
STRENGTHENS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE MVFR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS HOLD STEADY. HOWEVER...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO LATER
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 201044
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
544 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE MODELS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF TODAY. WE FORECASTED THE
HIGHEST POPS EARLY AND IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION CLOSER TO THE
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHALLOW MOISTURE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A DIMINISHED RAIN CHANCE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY
BE AREAS OF FOG AS INDICATED BY THE GFS MOS. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS A RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY MAINLY LATE AS
MOISTURE BECOMES DEEPER AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DISPLAYING
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW LATE MONDAY BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE POP FORECAST. THE GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW. THE
GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURE WERE CLOSE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT AND NOW DISPLAY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. THE WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

IF THE FORECAST AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY H85 WINDS OF 40 TO
60 KNOTS. THE SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE
ECMWF KEEPS MUCH OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
POPS ARE JUST 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 14Z...CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF
TODAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING IFR THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LATEST RADAR
COMPOSITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING LIGHT RAIN AFFECTING ALL TAF
SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z-13Z AS WEDGE
STRENGTHENS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE MVFR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS HOLD STEADY. HOWEVER...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO LATER
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 201044
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
544 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE MODELS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF TODAY. WE FORECASTED THE
HIGHEST POPS EARLY AND IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION CLOSER TO THE
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHALLOW MOISTURE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A DIMINISHED RAIN CHANCE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY
BE AREAS OF FOG AS INDICATED BY THE GFS MOS. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS A RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY MAINLY LATE AS
MOISTURE BECOMES DEEPER AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DISPLAYING
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW LATE MONDAY BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE POP FORECAST. THE GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW. THE
GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURE WERE CLOSE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT AND NOW DISPLAY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. THE WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

IF THE FORECAST AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY H85 WINDS OF 40 TO
60 KNOTS. THE SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE
ECMWF KEEPS MUCH OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
POPS ARE JUST 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 14Z...CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF
TODAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING IFR THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LATEST RADAR
COMPOSITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING LIGHT RAIN AFFECTING ALL TAF
SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z-13Z AS WEDGE
STRENGTHENS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE MVFR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS HOLD STEADY. HOWEVER...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO LATER
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 201044
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
544 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE MODELS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF TODAY. WE FORECASTED THE
HIGHEST POPS EARLY AND IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION CLOSER TO THE
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHALLOW MOISTURE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A DIMINISHED RAIN CHANCE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY
BE AREAS OF FOG AS INDICATED BY THE GFS MOS. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS A RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY MAINLY LATE AS
MOISTURE BECOMES DEEPER AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DISPLAYING
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW LATE MONDAY BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE POP FORECAST. THE GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW. THE
GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURE WERE CLOSE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT AND NOW DISPLAY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. THE WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

IF THE FORECAST AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY H85 WINDS OF 40 TO
60 KNOTS. THE SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE
ECMWF KEEPS MUCH OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
POPS ARE JUST 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 14Z...CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF
TODAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING IFR THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LATEST RADAR
COMPOSITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING LIGHT RAIN AFFECTING ALL TAF
SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z-13Z AS WEDGE
STRENGTHENS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE MVFR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS HOLD STEADY. HOWEVER...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO LATER
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 201005
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
505 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT...
THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL ECHOES ON RADAR HAVE NOT BEEN
TRANSLATING TO MEASURABLE RAINS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 3 AM. QUITE
A BIT OF VIRGA OUT THERE INITIALLY. LOWER LEVELS WERE GRADUALLY
SATURATING AND EXPECT MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SOME LIGHT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESPONSIBLE FOR A FAIRLY UNIFORM SURFACE THERMAL
FIELD WITH READINGS IN THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE.

EARLY THIS MORNING A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST
ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WAS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AS A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SWINGS ENE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. SURFACE
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLC REGION
TODAY WHILE WEAK SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLONGENESIS TAKES FORM OFF
OUR COAST. COOLER N TO NE FLOW ENSUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINS START THE DAY. THIS IS A STRONG
SIGNAL THAT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE MUCH THIS MORNING. AS THE BACK
EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD SLIDES INTO THE PICTURE BY THIS AFTERNOON...
POTENTIAL FOR TEMP RECOVERY LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED AND LIMITED TO SOUTH
GEORGIA. A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF DRIER AIR ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
ABOUT 8 KFT WORKS IN FROM THE WSW AND EFFECTIVELY SHUTS DOWN THE RAINS
FOR ALL BUT PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE CHARLESTON AREA BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON. IT IS A BIT UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS DRIER AIR ABOVE
WILL TRAP A LOT OF LOWER CLOUDS INITIALLY BUT WITH PLENTY OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING LATER IN THE DAY...CONFIDENCE IS VERY
GOOD THAT CLOUDS PREVAIL FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL TRIM DOWNWARD
INTO LIKELY RANGES TO THE N OF I-16 BY 18Z AND THEN ONLY CHANCE
POPS BY SUNSET ACROSS THE CHARLESTON AREA. QPF LIMITED TO AMOUNTS
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH NORTHERN ZONES WITH MANY AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-16 MANAGING TO MEASURE WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS.

TONIGHT WE LIKE THE SREF REPRESENTATION OF LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WITH STRATUS PERHAPS BUILDING DOWN IN SOME
AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE ONLY ENOUGH TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN MORE CERTAIN AT THIS POINT. LACK OF
FORCING SUGGESTS ANY LIGHT RAINS AROUND TONIGHT WOULD BE PATCHY WITH
SOME DRIZZLE AROUND THE REGION. POPS ONLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WERE
MAINTAINED AND LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF SOMEWHAT DRY...BEFORE A PLUME OF
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT A GENERAL TREND OF RAMPING UP POPS
FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH POPS
APPROACHING 80-90 SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP STILL
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE LATEST TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOW TRACK...BUT
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK NEAR 60 ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM
THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ELEVATED
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER
50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COASTAL FRONT
LIFTS NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A
PERIOD OF WARMING SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST...WITH HIGH TEMPS APPROACHING THE
MID/UPPER 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPENING MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY
PWATS BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES ALONG WITH THE WARMER TEMPS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST
CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE SBCAPES APPROACH
800 J/KG AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR 7 C/KM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST. WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND IT. A MUCH
QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS THEN ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON
FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHEN AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS FILL-IN AFTER
A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE OFFSHORE DEPARTS AND A WEDGE INVERSION
CAN SOLIDLY LOCK IN. GIVEN THE LATEST SREF PROGS AND 00Z NAM...IT
MAKE TAKE UNTIL LATER TODAY IN AT KCHS AND THIS EVENING AT KSAV.
WE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE BUT KEPT
PERSISTENCE OVERALL. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT KCHS BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND MVFR/IFR TONIGHT. AT KSAV...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE
THEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN MVFR GOING IFR TONIGHT AS THE INVERSION
STRENGTHENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF
FROPA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF
STREAM TODAY AND DRIFT ENE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL WEDGE IN
FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW AND BEGIN TO PINCH THE PRES
GRADIENT OFF THE COAST. A 4-6 MILLIBAR PRES GRADIENT FROM THE GULF
STREAM TO THE LAND WILL LIKELY ANCHOR A NE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE LATER THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT. SEAS STARTING OFF ONLY 1-2
FT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS
3-5 FT ARE LIKELY SEAWARD FROM THE SAVANNAH AND CHARLESTON BUOYS
TONIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS INLAND
WHILE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEVELOPS AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST. PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE COAST.
IN GENERAL...WINDS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 15-20 KT WITH SEAS UP TO
3-4 FT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY....CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS A
COASTAL FRONT LIFTS NORTH WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MOST WATERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHILE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE/BUILD WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD
FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT. A
GALE WATCH/WARNING COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-9 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING LATE.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY OVER ALL WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WINDS/SEAS
SHOULD LOWER BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL WATERS AROUND
DAYBREAK...THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH LATE WEEK.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS COULD EQUATE
TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SEA FOG COULD DEVELOP
AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP MID/UPPER 50 SHELF WATER TEMPS
WITHIN A SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY PRIOR
TO WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...
GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AT
LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 201005
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
505 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT...
THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL ECHOES ON RADAR HAVE NOT BEEN
TRANSLATING TO MEASURABLE RAINS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 3 AM. QUITE
A BIT OF VIRGA OUT THERE INITIALLY. LOWER LEVELS WERE GRADUALLY
SATURATING AND EXPECT MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SOME LIGHT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESPONSIBLE FOR A FAIRLY UNIFORM SURFACE THERMAL
FIELD WITH READINGS IN THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE.

EARLY THIS MORNING A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST
ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WAS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AS A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SWINGS ENE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. SURFACE
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLC REGION
TODAY WHILE WEAK SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLONGENESIS TAKES FORM OFF
OUR COAST. COOLER N TO NE FLOW ENSUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINS START THE DAY. THIS IS A STRONG
SIGNAL THAT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE MUCH THIS MORNING. AS THE BACK
EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD SLIDES INTO THE PICTURE BY THIS AFTERNOON...
POTENTIAL FOR TEMP RECOVERY LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED AND LIMITED TO SOUTH
GEORGIA. A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF DRIER AIR ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
ABOUT 8 KFT WORKS IN FROM THE WSW AND EFFECTIVELY SHUTS DOWN THE RAINS
FOR ALL BUT PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE CHARLESTON AREA BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON. IT IS A BIT UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS DRIER AIR ABOVE
WILL TRAP A LOT OF LOWER CLOUDS INITIALLY BUT WITH PLENTY OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING LATER IN THE DAY...CONFIDENCE IS VERY
GOOD THAT CLOUDS PREVAIL FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL TRIM DOWNWARD
INTO LIKELY RANGES TO THE N OF I-16 BY 18Z AND THEN ONLY CHANCE
POPS BY SUNSET ACROSS THE CHARLESTON AREA. QPF LIMITED TO AMOUNTS
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH NORTHERN ZONES WITH MANY AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-16 MANAGING TO MEASURE WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS.

TONIGHT WE LIKE THE SREF REPRESENTATION OF LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WITH STRATUS PERHAPS BUILDING DOWN IN SOME
AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE ONLY ENOUGH TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN MORE CERTAIN AT THIS POINT. LACK OF
FORCING SUGGESTS ANY LIGHT RAINS AROUND TONIGHT WOULD BE PATCHY WITH
SOME DRIZZLE AROUND THE REGION. POPS ONLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WERE
MAINTAINED AND LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF SOMEWHAT DRY...BEFORE A PLUME OF
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT A GENERAL TREND OF RAMPING UP POPS
FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH POPS
APPROACHING 80-90 SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP STILL
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE LATEST TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOW TRACK...BUT
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK NEAR 60 ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM
THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ELEVATED
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER
50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COASTAL FRONT
LIFTS NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A
PERIOD OF WARMING SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST...WITH HIGH TEMPS APPROACHING THE
MID/UPPER 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPENING MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY
PWATS BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES ALONG WITH THE WARMER TEMPS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST
CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE SBCAPES APPROACH
800 J/KG AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR 7 C/KM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST. WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND IT. A MUCH
QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS THEN ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON
FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHEN AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS FILL-IN AFTER
A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE OFFSHORE DEPARTS AND A WEDGE INVERSION
CAN SOLIDLY LOCK IN. GIVEN THE LATEST SREF PROGS AND 00Z NAM...IT
MAKE TAKE UNTIL LATER TODAY IN AT KCHS AND THIS EVENING AT KSAV.
WE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE BUT KEPT
PERSISTENCE OVERALL. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT KCHS BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND MVFR/IFR TONIGHT. AT KSAV...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE
THEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN MVFR GOING IFR TONIGHT AS THE INVERSION
STRENGTHENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF
FROPA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF
STREAM TODAY AND DRIFT ENE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL WEDGE IN
FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW AND BEGIN TO PINCH THE PRES
GRADIENT OFF THE COAST. A 4-6 MILLIBAR PRES GRADIENT FROM THE GULF
STREAM TO THE LAND WILL LIKELY ANCHOR A NE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE LATER THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT. SEAS STARTING OFF ONLY 1-2
FT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS
3-5 FT ARE LIKELY SEAWARD FROM THE SAVANNAH AND CHARLESTON BUOYS
TONIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS INLAND
WHILE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEVELOPS AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST. PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE COAST.
IN GENERAL...WINDS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 15-20 KT WITH SEAS UP TO
3-4 FT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY....CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS A
COASTAL FRONT LIFTS NORTH WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MOST WATERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHILE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE/BUILD WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD
FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT. A
GALE WATCH/WARNING COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-9 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING LATE.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY OVER ALL WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WINDS/SEAS
SHOULD LOWER BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL WATERS AROUND
DAYBREAK...THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH LATE WEEK.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS COULD EQUATE
TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SEA FOG COULD DEVELOP
AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP MID/UPPER 50 SHELF WATER TEMPS
WITHIN A SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY PRIOR
TO WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...
GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AT
LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 201005
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
505 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT...
THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL ECHOES ON RADAR HAVE NOT BEEN
TRANSLATING TO MEASURABLE RAINS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 3 AM. QUITE
A BIT OF VIRGA OUT THERE INITIALLY. LOWER LEVELS WERE GRADUALLY
SATURATING AND EXPECT MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SOME LIGHT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESPONSIBLE FOR A FAIRLY UNIFORM SURFACE THERMAL
FIELD WITH READINGS IN THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE.

EARLY THIS MORNING A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST
ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WAS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AS A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SWINGS ENE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. SURFACE
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLC REGION
TODAY WHILE WEAK SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLONGENESIS TAKES FORM OFF
OUR COAST. COOLER N TO NE FLOW ENSUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINS START THE DAY. THIS IS A STRONG
SIGNAL THAT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE MUCH THIS MORNING. AS THE BACK
EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD SLIDES INTO THE PICTURE BY THIS AFTERNOON...
POTENTIAL FOR TEMP RECOVERY LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED AND LIMITED TO SOUTH
GEORGIA. A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF DRIER AIR ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
ABOUT 8 KFT WORKS IN FROM THE WSW AND EFFECTIVELY SHUTS DOWN THE RAINS
FOR ALL BUT PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE CHARLESTON AREA BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON. IT IS A BIT UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS DRIER AIR ABOVE
WILL TRAP A LOT OF LOWER CLOUDS INITIALLY BUT WITH PLENTY OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING LATER IN THE DAY...CONFIDENCE IS VERY
GOOD THAT CLOUDS PREVAIL FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL TRIM DOWNWARD
INTO LIKELY RANGES TO THE N OF I-16 BY 18Z AND THEN ONLY CHANCE
POPS BY SUNSET ACROSS THE CHARLESTON AREA. QPF LIMITED TO AMOUNTS
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH NORTHERN ZONES WITH MANY AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-16 MANAGING TO MEASURE WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS.

TONIGHT WE LIKE THE SREF REPRESENTATION OF LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WITH STRATUS PERHAPS BUILDING DOWN IN SOME
AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE ONLY ENOUGH TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN MORE CERTAIN AT THIS POINT. LACK OF
FORCING SUGGESTS ANY LIGHT RAINS AROUND TONIGHT WOULD BE PATCHY WITH
SOME DRIZZLE AROUND THE REGION. POPS ONLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WERE
MAINTAINED AND LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF SOMEWHAT DRY...BEFORE A PLUME OF
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT A GENERAL TREND OF RAMPING UP POPS
FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH POPS
APPROACHING 80-90 SUNDAY NIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP STILL
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE LATEST TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOW TRACK...BUT
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK NEAR 60 ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM
THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ELEVATED
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER
50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COASTAL FRONT
LIFTS NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A
PERIOD OF WARMING SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST...WITH HIGH TEMPS APPROACHING THE
MID/UPPER 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPENING MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY
PWATS BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES ALONG WITH THE WARMER TEMPS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST
CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE SBCAPES APPROACH
800 J/KG AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR 7 C/KM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST. WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND IT. A MUCH
QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS THEN ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON
FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHEN AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS FILL-IN AFTER
A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE OFFSHORE DEPARTS AND A WEDGE INVERSION
CAN SOLIDLY LOCK IN. GIVEN THE LATEST SREF PROGS AND 00Z NAM...IT
MAKE TAKE UNTIL LATER TODAY IN AT KCHS AND THIS EVENING AT KSAV.
WE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE BUT KEPT
PERSISTENCE OVERALL. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT KCHS BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND MVFR/IFR TONIGHT. AT KSAV...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE
THEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN MVFR GOING IFR TONIGHT AS THE INVERSION
STRENGTHENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF
FROPA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF
STREAM TODAY AND DRIFT ENE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL WEDGE IN
FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW AND BEGIN TO PINCH THE PRES
GRADIENT OFF THE COAST. A 4-6 MILLIBAR PRES GRADIENT FROM THE GULF
STREAM TO THE LAND WILL LIKELY ANCHOR A NE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE LATER THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT. SEAS STARTING OFF ONLY 1-2
FT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS
3-5 FT ARE LIKELY SEAWARD FROM THE SAVANNAH AND CHARLESTON BUOYS
TONIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS INLAND
WHILE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEVELOPS AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST. PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE COAST.
IN GENERAL...WINDS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 15-20 KT WITH SEAS UP TO
3-4 FT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY....CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS A
COASTAL FRONT LIFTS NORTH WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MOST WATERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHILE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE/BUILD WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD
FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT. A
GALE WATCH/WARNING COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-9 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING LATE.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY OVER ALL WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WINDS/SEAS
SHOULD LOWER BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL WATERS AROUND
DAYBREAK...THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH LATE WEEK.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS COULD EQUATE
TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SEA FOG COULD DEVELOP
AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP MID/UPPER 50 SHELF WATER TEMPS
WITHIN A SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY PRIOR
TO WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...
GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AT
LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS62 KCAE 200846
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
346 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE MODELS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF TODAY. WE FORECASTED THE
HIGHEST POPS EARLY AND IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION CLOSER TO THE
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHALLOW MOISTURE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A DIMINISHED RAIN CHANCE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY
BE AREAS OF FOG AS INDICATED BY THE GFS MOS. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS A RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY MAINLY LATE AS
MOISTURE BECOMES DEEPER AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DISPLAYING
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW LATE MONDAY BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE POP FORECAST. THE GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW. THE
GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURE WERE CLOSE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT AND NOW DISPLAY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. THE WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

IF THE FORECAST AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY H85 WINDS OF 40 TO
60 KNOTS. THE SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE
ECMWF KEEPS MUCH OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
POPS ARE JUST 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THICKENING CLOUDS WHICH WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFTING BECOMES STRONGER. LATEST RADAR
COMPOSITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING LIGHT RAIN AFFECTING ALL TAF
SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS WEDGE
STRENGTHENS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WHILE
MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS HOLD STEADY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF
COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 200846
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
346 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE MODELS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATE DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF TODAY. WE FORECASTED THE
HIGHEST POPS EARLY AND IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION CLOSER TO THE
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHALLOW MOISTURE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A DIMINISHED RAIN CHANCE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAY
BE AREAS OF FOG AS INDICATED BY THE GFS MOS. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS A RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY MAINLY LATE AS
MOISTURE BECOMES DEEPER AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DISPLAYING
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW LATE MONDAY BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE POP FORECAST. THE GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND A LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW. THE
GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURE WERE CLOSE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT AND NOW DISPLAY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. THE WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

IF THE FORECAST AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY H85 WINDS OF 40 TO
60 KNOTS. THE SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING A DRY WEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BUT
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH
LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS LESS MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE
ECMWF KEEPS MUCH OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
POPS ARE JUST 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THICKENING CLOUDS WHICH WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFTING BECOMES STRONGER. LATEST RADAR
COMPOSITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING LIGHT RAIN AFFECTING ALL TAF
SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS WEDGE
STRENGTHENS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WHILE
MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS HOLD STEADY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF
COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 200810
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
310 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITIES ARE VERY LOW THIS MORNING SO
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITH THESE SHOWERS. AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH NOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES SHIFTS EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA AND
BEGINS WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER GA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NEXT RAIN MAKER MOVES IN. NEXT SHORTWAVE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST AND WILL MOVE NE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING SUN
MORNING INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WEDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM INSTABILITIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM EITHER.

01

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE LONG TERM.

A DAMMED AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR LIKELY TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WITH POPS DECREASING SOME FOR MONDAY.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT ARE RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE RUNNING NEAR
TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MAIN CONCERN THEN BECOMES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE
GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH THE GFS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER BUT WITH BOTH
MODELS SEEMING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A 40-50
KNOT 850MB JET WITH A STRONG UPPER JET. CAPES LOOK TO BE THE 200-800
RANGE WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS. THE CAPES DOES NOT A LINE
ALL THAT WELL WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.

DEPENDING ON TIMING SOME THREAT COULD LINGER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY N GA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY OVER N GA
WILL BECOME A CHANCE OF FLURRIES LATE NIGHT. IT LOOKS THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO NO MORE
THAN FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE EUROPEAN MUCH WETTER...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR BUT EXPECTING THEM TO GET DOWN
INTO MVFR RANGE BY 10-12Z. VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR BUT MAY SEE SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN STRONGER SHOWERS . RAIN WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS THE ATL AREA BY 14-16Z WITH CEILINGS LIFTING BACK
INTO THE VFR RANGE BY 18Z. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NW BUT WILL TURN
TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
8KTS OR LESS SO MAY SEE WIND DIRECTION GOING BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN NW AND NE THIS AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  38  51  40 /  70  10  30  80
ATLANTA         53  42  52  43 /  70  10  30  70
BLAIRSVILLE     49  36  50  39 /  50  10  20  80
CARTERSVILLE    53  37  52  40 /  60  10  20  60
COLUMBUS        55  45  55  46 /  90  20  30  70
GAINESVILLE     50  38  50  41 /  60   5  30  80
MACON           55  43  54  46 /  90  20  30  80
ROME            52  35  54  40 /  50   5  20  60
PEACHTREE CITY  54  37  52  42 /  80  10  30  70
VIDALIA         56  45  56  49 /  80  20  40  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 200810
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
310 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITIES ARE VERY LOW THIS MORNING SO
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITH THESE SHOWERS. AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH NOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES SHIFTS EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA AND
BEGINS WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER GA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NEXT RAIN MAKER MOVES IN. NEXT SHORTWAVE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST AND WILL MOVE NE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING SUN
MORNING INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WEDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM INSTABILITIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM EITHER.

01

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE LONG TERM.

A DAMMED AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR LIKELY TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WITH POPS DECREASING SOME FOR MONDAY.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT ARE RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE RUNNING NEAR
TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MAIN CONCERN THEN BECOMES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE
GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH THE GFS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER BUT WITH BOTH
MODELS SEEMING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A 40-50
KNOT 850MB JET WITH A STRONG UPPER JET. CAPES LOOK TO BE THE 200-800
RANGE WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS. THE CAPES DOES NOT A LINE
ALL THAT WELL WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.

DEPENDING ON TIMING SOME THREAT COULD LINGER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY N GA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY OVER N GA
WILL BECOME A CHANCE OF FLURRIES LATE NIGHT. IT LOOKS THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO NO MORE
THAN FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE EUROPEAN MUCH WETTER...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR BUT EXPECTING THEM TO GET DOWN
INTO MVFR RANGE BY 10-12Z. VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR BUT MAY SEE SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN STRONGER SHOWERS . RAIN WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS THE ATL AREA BY 14-16Z WITH CEILINGS LIFTING BACK
INTO THE VFR RANGE BY 18Z. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NW BUT WILL TURN
TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
8KTS OR LESS SO MAY SEE WIND DIRECTION GOING BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN NW AND NE THIS AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  38  51  40 /  70  10  30  80
ATLANTA         53  42  52  43 /  70  10  30  70
BLAIRSVILLE     49  36  50  39 /  50  10  20  80
CARTERSVILLE    53  37  52  40 /  60  10  20  60
COLUMBUS        55  45  55  46 /  90  20  30  70
GAINESVILLE     50  38  50  41 /  60   5  30  80
MACON           55  43  54  46 /  90  20  30  80
ROME            52  35  54  40 /  50   5  20  60
PEACHTREE CITY  54  37  52  42 /  80  10  30  70
VIDALIA         56  45  56  49 /  80  20  40  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 200646
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
146 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION SPREADING
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. CURRENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THESE TRENDS WELL AND
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CIRRUS HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER PUSHING IN. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO INCREASING IN ADVANCE
OF DEEPENING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BUT WITH THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT A SURFACE LOW
IS DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST GULF WITH MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...THOUGH 12Z MODELS DID INCREASE THE TOTALS
JUST A TAD...STILL UNDER 0.5 INCHES EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME AREAS
/ESPECIALLY NORTH GEORGIA/ HARDLY SEEING ANY. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WE
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WHICH MIGHT SERVE TO CUT OF DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION EVEN MORE. HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF CATEGORICAL POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA. PRETTY MUCH 0 INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO CONTINUED ALL RAIN WORDING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE
ABOVE NORMAL...WILL BE HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME BRIEF FLURRIES ESPECIALLY AT ONSET ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BUT
OVERALL JUST A COLD LIGHT RAIN.

AS THE SHORTWAVE DAMPS ON SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE HIGH
BEGINS DAMMING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE SHORT TERM AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE PULLS NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED.

WENT WITH A GENERAL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES BUT ESPECIALLY HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
PRECIPITATION AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES EVEN
LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AS IT IS...EXPECT HIGHS ABOUT NORMAL
AND LOWS HELD SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE.

TDP

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR SOMETHING OTHER THAN RAIN LOOKS TO BE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OVER FAR N GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM... WITH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER COOL WEDGE SETTING UP ON SUNDAY AND GETTING OVERRUN WITH A
MOIST MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS GETS ENHANCED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF MAINLY RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO HOLD STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE STATE AND WARRANT A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...
INSTABILITIES AND ANY THUNDER THREAT APPEARS TO REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THIS CHANGES TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS AGREE ON A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENING
OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY... THEN KICKING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT... ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING 200-600 MUCAPE NOSING UP ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COUPLED
WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL
WARRANT ADDING MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT SUSPECT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED UPPER FORCING. STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT AS INSTABILITIES AND DEEP
SHEAR REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST FOR NOW... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THIS POTENTIAL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA
WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITIES AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...  WRAP AROUND MOISTURE... STRONG UPPER FORCING AND
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING... BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH AIR AND GROUND TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE SNOW SHOWERS POTENTIAL RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY MORNING... BUT WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. OTHERWISE... EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS TO
DOMINATE MOSTLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR BUT EXPECTING THEM TO GET DOWN
INTO MVFR RANGE BY 10-12Z. VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR BUT MAY SEE SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN STRONGER SHOWERS . RAIN WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS THE ATL AREA BY 14-16Z WITH CEILINGS LIFTING BACK
INTO THE VFR RANGE BY 18Z. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NW BUT WILL TURN
TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
8KTS OR LESS SO MAY SEE WIND DIRECTION GOING BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN NW AND NE THIS AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  38  51  42 /  70  20  30  70
ATLANTA         53  42  52  44 /  70  10  30  70
BLAIRSVILLE     49  36  50  39 /  50  20  20  60
CARTERSVILLE    53  37  52  41 /  60  10  20  60
COLUMBUS        55  45  54  47 /  90  20  30  70
GAINESVILLE     50  38  50  42 /  60  20  30  70
MACON           55  43  54  47 /  90  20  30  80
ROME            52  35  53  41 /  50  10  20  60
PEACHTREE CITY  54  37  52  42 /  80  20  30  70
VIDALIA         56  45  56  51 /  80  20  40  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 200646
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
146 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION SPREADING
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. CURRENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THESE TRENDS WELL AND
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CIRRUS HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER PUSHING IN. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO INCREASING IN ADVANCE
OF DEEPENING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BUT WITH THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT A SURFACE LOW
IS DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST GULF WITH MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...THOUGH 12Z MODELS DID INCREASE THE TOTALS
JUST A TAD...STILL UNDER 0.5 INCHES EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME AREAS
/ESPECIALLY NORTH GEORGIA/ HARDLY SEEING ANY. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WE
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WHICH MIGHT SERVE TO CUT OF DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION EVEN MORE. HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF CATEGORICAL POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA. PRETTY MUCH 0 INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO CONTINUED ALL RAIN WORDING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE
ABOVE NORMAL...WILL BE HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME BRIEF FLURRIES ESPECIALLY AT ONSET ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BUT
OVERALL JUST A COLD LIGHT RAIN.

AS THE SHORTWAVE DAMPS ON SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE HIGH
BEGINS DAMMING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE SHORT TERM AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE PULLS NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED.

WENT WITH A GENERAL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES BUT ESPECIALLY HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
PRECIPITATION AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES EVEN
LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AS IT IS...EXPECT HIGHS ABOUT NORMAL
AND LOWS HELD SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE.

TDP

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR SOMETHING OTHER THAN RAIN LOOKS TO BE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OVER FAR N GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM... WITH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER COOL WEDGE SETTING UP ON SUNDAY AND GETTING OVERRUN WITH A
MOIST MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS GETS ENHANCED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF MAINLY RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO HOLD STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE STATE AND WARRANT A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...
INSTABILITIES AND ANY THUNDER THREAT APPEARS TO REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THIS CHANGES TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS AGREE ON A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENING
OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY... THEN KICKING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT... ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING 200-600 MUCAPE NOSING UP ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COUPLED
WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL
WARRANT ADDING MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT SUSPECT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED UPPER FORCING. STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT AS INSTABILITIES AND DEEP
SHEAR REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST FOR NOW... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THIS POTENTIAL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA
WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITIES AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...  WRAP AROUND MOISTURE... STRONG UPPER FORCING AND
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING... BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH AIR AND GROUND TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE SNOW SHOWERS POTENTIAL RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY MORNING... BUT WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. OTHERWISE... EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS TO
DOMINATE MOSTLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR BUT EXPECTING THEM TO GET DOWN
INTO MVFR RANGE BY 10-12Z. VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR BUT MAY SEE SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN STRONGER SHOWERS . RAIN WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS THE ATL AREA BY 14-16Z WITH CEILINGS LIFTING BACK
INTO THE VFR RANGE BY 18Z. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NW BUT WILL TURN
TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
8KTS OR LESS SO MAY SEE WIND DIRECTION GOING BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN NW AND NE THIS AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  38  51  42 /  70  20  30  70
ATLANTA         53  42  52  44 /  70  10  30  70
BLAIRSVILLE     49  36  50  39 /  50  20  20  60
CARTERSVILLE    53  37  52  41 /  60  10  20  60
COLUMBUS        55  45  54  47 /  90  20  30  70
GAINESVILLE     50  38  50  42 /  60  20  30  70
MACON           55  43  54  47 /  90  20  30  80
ROME            52  35  53  41 /  50  10  20  60
PEACHTREE CITY  54  37  52  42 /  80  20  30  70
VIDALIA         56  45  56  51 /  80  20  40  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KCHS 200622
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
122 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREAS OF SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AS THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN WITH TIME. OUR TRENDS
WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL STILL LOOKS TO WORK
OUT ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW-END MANY AREAS. MIDNIGHT
UPDATE INITIALIZED TEMPS MILDER IN SE GEORGIA AND RAISED LOW TEMPS
IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE BLANKET OF CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT THAT LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A SHALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND A STALLED FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE SE.
THAT ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FAST MOVING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND AN ELONGATED 125 KT UPPER JET THAT STRETCHES FROM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO TEXAS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT WON/T MATTER AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
BECOMES QUICKLY SATURATED INTO THE MID LEVELS. LIGHT RAINS WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...AND WILL
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DYNAMICS ALOFT. WE MIGHT FIND AN EVEN
SHARPER GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO PRECIP THAN WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING...BUT FIGURE ON NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS OVER MOST OF SC
AND IN MOST COMMUNITIES NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA. POPS THEN TAPER TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER MCINTOSH COUNTY. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BY LATE IN THE DAY OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE
FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE BY
NIGHTFALL. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...OUR QPF IS NO MORE
THAN ABOUT 1/10 TO 2/10 OF AN INCH. COOL AIR WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE
WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF I-16 IN
GA...WITH UPPER 50S TO MAYBE NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE
GULF STREAM. HE LACK OF FORCING UPSTAIRS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
RAIN TO HAVE ENDED...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP INVERSION OFF THE
DECK THAT WILL HOLD IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE. DEPENDING UPON HOW LONG THE BUILD
DOWN OF STRATUS TRANSPIRES WE COULD SEE SOME FOG CONCERNS. LIMITED
COOL ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A
DROP IN TEMPS...AT BEST ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SW LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
EAST/SE...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE. BUT AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS MORE SW IT PULLS THIS FEATURE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND ALSO OPENS UP THE GULF ALOFT FOR IT/S FEED OF
MOISTURE. WE DON/T HAVE TOO MUCH COVERAGE OF RAIN UNTIL THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWING MAINLY 20-30 POPS
SUNDAY...BUT RAMPING UP QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. WE DON/T YET HAVE 100 POPS GIVEN SOME MINOR
TIMING ISSUES...BUT FIGURE THAT EVERYONE WILL GET A STEADY RAIN
DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FORCING
FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET. WITH PWATS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES WE ANTICIPATE
HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY...THEN FALL ONLY ABOUT 6-10 DEGREES AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...WE/RE STILL STUCK WITHIN THE COOL AIR WEDGE REGIME WITH ANY
COASTAL WARM FRONT TO REMAIN OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH FORCING IN RESPONSE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE WARM
FRONT...THE TAIL OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND NEARBY UPPER
JET...PLUS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS. PWATS ACTUALLY MAKE A RUN
FOR ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...SO WE/RE STILL
SHOWING 80-90 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES. THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACHING ZERO. BUT CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY ADDING MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDDED ELEMENTS.
ADDITIONAL QPF OF 1/2 TO 2/3 INCHES. MY CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS NOT
THE GREATEST...BUT WITH COOL AIR DAMMING STILL IN PLACE WE
CONTINUE TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR
MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S
ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHEN AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS FILL-IN AFTER
A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE OFFSHORE DEPARTS AND A WEDGE INVERSION
CAN SOLIDLY LOCK IN. GIVEN THE LATEST SREF PROGS AND 00Z NAM...IT
MAKE TAKE UNTIL LATER TODAY IN AT KCHS AND THIS EVENING AT KSAV.
WE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE BUT KEPT
PERSISTENCE OVERALL. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT KCHS BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND MVFR/IFR TONIGHT. AT KSAV...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE
THEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN MVFR GOING IFR TONIGHT AS THE INVERSION
STRENGTHENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT NE ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY
SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. WINDY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MORE
UNIFORM N/NE WINDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. ACCORDINGLY...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 2-3 FT LATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
A STALLED OUT FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WHILE AN
INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN PLACE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
PINCHING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE NORTH OR NE WINDS AS
HIGH AS 15 OR 20 KT. THE RESULTING SEAS WILL PEAK AT 3 OR 4 FT. SO
FOR NOW WE DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY OR
DISSIPATES...BUT A SECOND WAVE OF WILL TAKE SHAPE IN SIMILAR
POSITION TO THE EAST/SE OF THE MARINE AREA. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS
TO THE SW WILL ATTEMPT TO DRAW THE SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT INLAND
WEDGE IS RELUCTANT TO RELAX ITS GRIP ACROSS THE SE...SO ANY VEERING
OF WINDS FROM THE NE AROUND TO THE SE OR SOUTH WILL TAKE SOME
TIME...IF AT ALL DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL AGAIN PEAK AT 15 OR
20 KT PENDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN...WITH SEAS AGAIN
NO MORE THAN 3 OR 4 FT. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL WARM FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY AND GIVES WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY
HOLD WINDS BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...BUT STEADY ISALLOBARIC
PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR MAYBE GALES. NOT YET SURE HOW THE
SITUATION WILL UNFOLD...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW END RISK OF SOME
STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THEN AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP THE MID AND UPPER
50S SHELF WATERS WITHIN A SOUTH AND SW FLOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG PRIOR TO
WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...
GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AT
LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 200622
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
122 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREAS OF SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AS THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN WITH TIME. OUR TRENDS
WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL STILL LOOKS TO WORK
OUT ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW-END MANY AREAS. MIDNIGHT
UPDATE INITIALIZED TEMPS MILDER IN SE GEORGIA AND RAISED LOW TEMPS
IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE BLANKET OF CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT THAT LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A SHALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND A STALLED FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE SE.
THAT ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FAST MOVING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND AN ELONGATED 125 KT UPPER JET THAT STRETCHES FROM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO TEXAS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT WON/T MATTER AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
BECOMES QUICKLY SATURATED INTO THE MID LEVELS. LIGHT RAINS WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...AND WILL
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DYNAMICS ALOFT. WE MIGHT FIND AN EVEN
SHARPER GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO PRECIP THAN WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING...BUT FIGURE ON NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS OVER MOST OF SC
AND IN MOST COMMUNITIES NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA. POPS THEN TAPER TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER MCINTOSH COUNTY. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BY LATE IN THE DAY OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE
FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE BY
NIGHTFALL. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...OUR QPF IS NO MORE
THAN ABOUT 1/10 TO 2/10 OF AN INCH. COOL AIR WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE
WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF I-16 IN
GA...WITH UPPER 50S TO MAYBE NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE
GULF STREAM. HE LACK OF FORCING UPSTAIRS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
RAIN TO HAVE ENDED...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP INVERSION OFF THE
DECK THAT WILL HOLD IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE. DEPENDING UPON HOW LONG THE BUILD
DOWN OF STRATUS TRANSPIRES WE COULD SEE SOME FOG CONCERNS. LIMITED
COOL ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A
DROP IN TEMPS...AT BEST ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SW LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
EAST/SE...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE. BUT AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS MORE SW IT PULLS THIS FEATURE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND ALSO OPENS UP THE GULF ALOFT FOR IT/S FEED OF
MOISTURE. WE DON/T HAVE TOO MUCH COVERAGE OF RAIN UNTIL THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWING MAINLY 20-30 POPS
SUNDAY...BUT RAMPING UP QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. WE DON/T YET HAVE 100 POPS GIVEN SOME MINOR
TIMING ISSUES...BUT FIGURE THAT EVERYONE WILL GET A STEADY RAIN
DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FORCING
FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET. WITH PWATS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES WE ANTICIPATE
HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY...THEN FALL ONLY ABOUT 6-10 DEGREES AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...WE/RE STILL STUCK WITHIN THE COOL AIR WEDGE REGIME WITH ANY
COASTAL WARM FRONT TO REMAIN OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH FORCING IN RESPONSE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE WARM
FRONT...THE TAIL OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND NEARBY UPPER
JET...PLUS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS. PWATS ACTUALLY MAKE A RUN
FOR ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...SO WE/RE STILL
SHOWING 80-90 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES. THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACHING ZERO. BUT CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY ADDING MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDDED ELEMENTS.
ADDITIONAL QPF OF 1/2 TO 2/3 INCHES. MY CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS NOT
THE GREATEST...BUT WITH COOL AIR DAMMING STILL IN PLACE WE
CONTINUE TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR
MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S
ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHEN AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS FILL-IN AFTER
A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE OFFSHORE DEPARTS AND A WEDGE INVERSION
CAN SOLIDLY LOCK IN. GIVEN THE LATEST SREF PROGS AND 00Z NAM...IT
MAKE TAKE UNTIL LATER TODAY IN AT KCHS AND THIS EVENING AT KSAV.
WE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE BUT KEPT
PERSISTENCE OVERALL. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT KCHS BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND MVFR/IFR TONIGHT. AT KSAV...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE
THEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN MVFR GOING IFR TONIGHT AS THE INVERSION
STRENGTHENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT NE ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY
SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. WINDY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MORE
UNIFORM N/NE WINDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. ACCORDINGLY...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 2-3 FT LATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
A STALLED OUT FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WHILE AN
INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN PLACE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
PINCHING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE NORTH OR NE WINDS AS
HIGH AS 15 OR 20 KT. THE RESULTING SEAS WILL PEAK AT 3 OR 4 FT. SO
FOR NOW WE DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY OR
DISSIPATES...BUT A SECOND WAVE OF WILL TAKE SHAPE IN SIMILAR
POSITION TO THE EAST/SE OF THE MARINE AREA. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS
TO THE SW WILL ATTEMPT TO DRAW THE SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT INLAND
WEDGE IS RELUCTANT TO RELAX ITS GRIP ACROSS THE SE...SO ANY VEERING
OF WINDS FROM THE NE AROUND TO THE SE OR SOUTH WILL TAKE SOME
TIME...IF AT ALL DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL AGAIN PEAK AT 15 OR
20 KT PENDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN...WITH SEAS AGAIN
NO MORE THAN 3 OR 4 FT. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL WARM FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY AND GIVES WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY
HOLD WINDS BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...BUT STEADY ISALLOBARIC
PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR MAYBE GALES. NOT YET SURE HOW THE
SITUATION WILL UNFOLD...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW END RISK OF SOME
STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THEN AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP THE MID AND UPPER
50S SHELF WATERS WITHIN A SOUTH AND SW FLOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG PRIOR TO
WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...
GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AT
LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 200622
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
122 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREAS OF SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AS THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN WITH TIME. OUR TRENDS
WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL STILL LOOKS TO WORK
OUT ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW-END MANY AREAS. MIDNIGHT
UPDATE INITIALIZED TEMPS MILDER IN SE GEORGIA AND RAISED LOW TEMPS
IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE BLANKET OF CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT THAT LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A SHALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND A STALLED FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE SE.
THAT ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FAST MOVING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND AN ELONGATED 125 KT UPPER JET THAT STRETCHES FROM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO TEXAS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT WON/T MATTER AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
BECOMES QUICKLY SATURATED INTO THE MID LEVELS. LIGHT RAINS WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...AND WILL
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DYNAMICS ALOFT. WE MIGHT FIND AN EVEN
SHARPER GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO PRECIP THAN WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING...BUT FIGURE ON NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS OVER MOST OF SC
AND IN MOST COMMUNITIES NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA. POPS THEN TAPER TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER MCINTOSH COUNTY. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BY LATE IN THE DAY OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE
FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE BY
NIGHTFALL. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...OUR QPF IS NO MORE
THAN ABOUT 1/10 TO 2/10 OF AN INCH. COOL AIR WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE
WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF I-16 IN
GA...WITH UPPER 50S TO MAYBE NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE
GULF STREAM. HE LACK OF FORCING UPSTAIRS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
RAIN TO HAVE ENDED...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP INVERSION OFF THE
DECK THAT WILL HOLD IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE. DEPENDING UPON HOW LONG THE BUILD
DOWN OF STRATUS TRANSPIRES WE COULD SEE SOME FOG CONCERNS. LIMITED
COOL ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A
DROP IN TEMPS...AT BEST ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SW LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
EAST/SE...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE. BUT AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS MORE SW IT PULLS THIS FEATURE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND ALSO OPENS UP THE GULF ALOFT FOR IT/S FEED OF
MOISTURE. WE DON/T HAVE TOO MUCH COVERAGE OF RAIN UNTIL THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWING MAINLY 20-30 POPS
SUNDAY...BUT RAMPING UP QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. WE DON/T YET HAVE 100 POPS GIVEN SOME MINOR
TIMING ISSUES...BUT FIGURE THAT EVERYONE WILL GET A STEADY RAIN
DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FORCING
FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET. WITH PWATS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES WE ANTICIPATE
HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY...THEN FALL ONLY ABOUT 6-10 DEGREES AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...WE/RE STILL STUCK WITHIN THE COOL AIR WEDGE REGIME WITH ANY
COASTAL WARM FRONT TO REMAIN OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH FORCING IN RESPONSE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE WARM
FRONT...THE TAIL OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND NEARBY UPPER
JET...PLUS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS. PWATS ACTUALLY MAKE A RUN
FOR ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...SO WE/RE STILL
SHOWING 80-90 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES. THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACHING ZERO. BUT CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY ADDING MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDDED ELEMENTS.
ADDITIONAL QPF OF 1/2 TO 2/3 INCHES. MY CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS NOT
THE GREATEST...BUT WITH COOL AIR DAMMING STILL IN PLACE WE
CONTINUE TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR
MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S
ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHEN AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS FILL-IN AFTER
A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE OFFSHORE DEPARTS AND A WEDGE INVERSION
CAN SOLIDLY LOCK IN. GIVEN THE LATEST SREF PROGS AND 00Z NAM...IT
MAKE TAKE UNTIL LATER TODAY IN AT KCHS AND THIS EVENING AT KSAV.
WE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE BUT KEPT
PERSISTENCE OVERALL. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT KCHS BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND MVFR/IFR TONIGHT. AT KSAV...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE
THEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN MVFR GOING IFR TONIGHT AS THE INVERSION
STRENGTHENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT NE ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY
SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. WINDY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MORE
UNIFORM N/NE WINDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. ACCORDINGLY...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 2-3 FT LATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
A STALLED OUT FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WHILE AN
INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN PLACE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
PINCHING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE NORTH OR NE WINDS AS
HIGH AS 15 OR 20 KT. THE RESULTING SEAS WILL PEAK AT 3 OR 4 FT. SO
FOR NOW WE DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY OR
DISSIPATES...BUT A SECOND WAVE OF WILL TAKE SHAPE IN SIMILAR
POSITION TO THE EAST/SE OF THE MARINE AREA. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS
TO THE SW WILL ATTEMPT TO DRAW THE SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT INLAND
WEDGE IS RELUCTANT TO RELAX ITS GRIP ACROSS THE SE...SO ANY VEERING
OF WINDS FROM THE NE AROUND TO THE SE OR SOUTH WILL TAKE SOME
TIME...IF AT ALL DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL AGAIN PEAK AT 15 OR
20 KT PENDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN...WITH SEAS AGAIN
NO MORE THAN 3 OR 4 FT. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL WARM FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY AND GIVES WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY
HOLD WINDS BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...BUT STEADY ISALLOBARIC
PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR MAYBE GALES. NOT YET SURE HOW THE
SITUATION WILL UNFOLD...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW END RISK OF SOME
STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THEN AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP THE MID AND UPPER
50S SHELF WATERS WITHIN A SOUTH AND SW FLOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG PRIOR TO
WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...
GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AT
LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 200622
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
122 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREAS OF SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AS THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN WITH TIME. OUR TRENDS
WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL STILL LOOKS TO WORK
OUT ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW-END MANY AREAS. MIDNIGHT
UPDATE INITIALIZED TEMPS MILDER IN SE GEORGIA AND RAISED LOW TEMPS
IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN THE BLANKET OF CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT THAT LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A SHALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND A STALLED FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE SE.
THAT ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FAST MOVING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND AN ELONGATED 125 KT UPPER JET THAT STRETCHES FROM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO TEXAS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT WON/T MATTER AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
BECOMES QUICKLY SATURATED INTO THE MID LEVELS. LIGHT RAINS WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...AND WILL
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DYNAMICS ALOFT. WE MIGHT FIND AN EVEN
SHARPER GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO PRECIP THAN WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING...BUT FIGURE ON NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS OVER MOST OF SC
AND IN MOST COMMUNITIES NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA. POPS THEN TAPER TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER MCINTOSH COUNTY. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BY LATE IN THE DAY OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE
FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE BY
NIGHTFALL. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...OUR QPF IS NO MORE
THAN ABOUT 1/10 TO 2/10 OF AN INCH. COOL AIR WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE
WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF I-16 IN
GA...WITH UPPER 50S TO MAYBE NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE
GULF STREAM. HE LACK OF FORCING UPSTAIRS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
RAIN TO HAVE ENDED...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP INVERSION OFF THE
DECK THAT WILL HOLD IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE. DEPENDING UPON HOW LONG THE BUILD
DOWN OF STRATUS TRANSPIRES WE COULD SEE SOME FOG CONCERNS. LIMITED
COOL ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A
DROP IN TEMPS...AT BEST ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SW LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
EAST/SE...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE. BUT AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS MORE SW IT PULLS THIS FEATURE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND ALSO OPENS UP THE GULF ALOFT FOR IT/S FEED OF
MOISTURE. WE DON/T HAVE TOO MUCH COVERAGE OF RAIN UNTIL THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWING MAINLY 20-30 POPS
SUNDAY...BUT RAMPING UP QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. WE DON/T YET HAVE 100 POPS GIVEN SOME MINOR
TIMING ISSUES...BUT FIGURE THAT EVERYONE WILL GET A STEADY RAIN
DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FORCING
FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET. WITH PWATS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES WE ANTICIPATE
HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY...THEN FALL ONLY ABOUT 6-10 DEGREES AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...WE/RE STILL STUCK WITHIN THE COOL AIR WEDGE REGIME WITH ANY
COASTAL WARM FRONT TO REMAIN OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH FORCING IN RESPONSE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE WARM
FRONT...THE TAIL OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND NEARBY UPPER
JET...PLUS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS. PWATS ACTUALLY MAKE A RUN
FOR ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...SO WE/RE STILL
SHOWING 80-90 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES. THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACHING ZERO. BUT CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY ADDING MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDDED ELEMENTS.
ADDITIONAL QPF OF 1/2 TO 2/3 INCHES. MY CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS NOT
THE GREATEST...BUT WITH COOL AIR DAMMING STILL IN PLACE WE
CONTINUE TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR
MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S
ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHEN AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS FILL-IN AFTER
A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE OFFSHORE DEPARTS AND A WEDGE INVERSION
CAN SOLIDLY LOCK IN. GIVEN THE LATEST SREF PROGS AND 00Z NAM...IT
MAKE TAKE UNTIL LATER TODAY IN AT KCHS AND THIS EVENING AT KSAV.
WE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE BUT KEPT
PERSISTENCE OVERALL. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT KCHS BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND MVFR/IFR TONIGHT. AT KSAV...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE
THEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN MVFR GOING IFR TONIGHT AS THE INVERSION
STRENGTHENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT NE ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY
SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. WINDY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MORE
UNIFORM N/NE WINDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. ACCORDINGLY...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 2-3 FT LATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
A STALLED OUT FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WHILE AN
INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN PLACE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
PINCHING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE NORTH OR NE WINDS AS
HIGH AS 15 OR 20 KT. THE RESULTING SEAS WILL PEAK AT 3 OR 4 FT. SO
FOR NOW WE DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY OR
DISSIPATES...BUT A SECOND WAVE OF WILL TAKE SHAPE IN SIMILAR
POSITION TO THE EAST/SE OF THE MARINE AREA. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS
TO THE SW WILL ATTEMPT TO DRAW THE SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT INLAND
WEDGE IS RELUCTANT TO RELAX ITS GRIP ACROSS THE SE...SO ANY VEERING
OF WINDS FROM THE NE AROUND TO THE SE OR SOUTH WILL TAKE SOME
TIME...IF AT ALL DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL AGAIN PEAK AT 15 OR
20 KT PENDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN...WITH SEAS AGAIN
NO MORE THAN 3 OR 4 FT. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL WARM FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY AND GIVES WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY
HOLD WINDS BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...BUT STEADY ISALLOBARIC
PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR MAYBE GALES. NOT YET SURE HOW THE
SITUATION WILL UNFOLD...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW END RISK OF SOME
STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THEN AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP THE MID AND UPPER
50S SHELF WATERS WITHIN A SOUTH AND SW FLOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG PRIOR TO
WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...
GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AT
LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 200458
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1158 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS ONGOING OFF THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST
THIS EVENING WITH SUPPORT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS. THESE FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST
TONIGHT WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS INITIATING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
IN THE VARIOUS MODEL MASS FIELDS WITH ONLY MODEST ISENTROPIC
ASSENT NOTED ALONG THE 290-305K SURFACES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT GULF MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT WITH MODEL PWAT
PROGS SHOWING PWAT VALUES REACHING AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.10 INCHES BY
MID-MORNING SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS NOSE OF
STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASSENT NUDGES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN.

HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF HIGHEST POPS ONCE AGAIN WITH THE LATE
EVENING UPDATE...MAINLY TO DELAY THE ONSET OF CATEGORICAL POPS
UNTIL AFTER 4 AM BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION DATA. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO A CORRIDOR ROUGHLY BOUNDED BY MILLEN-REIDSVILLE-NORTH
CHARLESTON-HARLEYVILLE BOX THROUGH SUNRISE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND FAR WEST TO THE MID- UPPER 40S
CENTRAL...SOUTH AND COASTAL AREAS.

CHANGE SUMMARY FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
* MODIFIED HOURLY POPS TO BETTER FIX THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
  RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS THROUGH 3 AM
  BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND A 50/50 BLEND OF GLAMP AND RAP
  DATA.
* LOWERED QPF THROUGH 20/12Z SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT THAT LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A SHALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND A STALLED FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE SE.
THAT ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FAST MOVING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND AN ELONGATED 125 KT UPPER JET THAT STRETCHES FROM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO TEXAS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT WON/T MATTER AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
BECOMES QUICKLY SATURATED INTO THE MID LEVELS. LIGHT RAINS WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...AND WILL
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DYNAMICS ALOFT. WE MIGHT FIND AN EVEN
SHARPER GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO PRECIP THAN WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING...BUT FIGURE ON NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS OVER MOST OF SC
AND IN MOST COMMUNITIES NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA. POPS THEN TAPER TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER MCINTOSH COUNTY. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BY LATE IN THE DAY OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE
FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE BY
NIGHTFALL. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...OUR QPF IS NO MORE
THAN ABOUT 1/10 TO 2/10 OF AN INCH. COOL AIR WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE
WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF I-16 IN
GA...WITH UPPER 50S TO MAYBE NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE
GULF STREAM. HE LACK OF FORCING UPSTAIRS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
RAIN TO HAVE ENDED...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP INVERSION OFF THE
DECK THAT WILL HOLD IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE. DEPENDING UPON HOW LONG THE BUILD
DOWN OF STRATUS TRANSPIRES WE COULD SEE SOME FOG CONCERNS. LIMITED
COOL ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A
DROP IN TEMPS...AT BEST ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SW LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
EAST/SE...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE. BUT AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS MORE SW IT PULLS THIS FEATURE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND ALSO OPENS UP THE GULF ALOFT FOR IT/S FEED OF
MOISTURE. WE DON/T HAVE TOO MUCH COVERAGE OF RAIN UNTIL THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWING MAINLY 20-30 POPS
SUNDAY...BUT RAMPING UP QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. WE DON/T YET HAVE 100 POPS GIVEN SOME MINOR
TIMING ISSUES...BUT FIGURE THAT EVERYONE WILL GET A STEADY RAIN
DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FORCING
FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET. WITH PWATS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES WE ANTICIPATE
HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY...THEN FALL ONLY ABOUT 6-10 DEGREES AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...WE/RE STILL STUCK WITHIN THE COOL AIR WEDGE REGIME WITH ANY
COASTAL WARM FRONT TO REMAIN OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH FORCING IN RESPONSE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE WARM
FRONT...THE TAIL OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND NEARBY UPPER
JET...PLUS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS. PWATS ACTUALLY MAKE A RUN
FOR ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...SO WE/RE STILL
SHOWING 80-90 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES. THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACHING ZERO. BUT CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY ADDING MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDDED ELEMENTS.
ADDITIONAL QPF OF 1/2 TO 2/3 INCHES. MY CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS NOT
THE GREATEST...BUT WITH COOL AIR DAMMING STILL IN PLACE WE
CONTINUE TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR
MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S
ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE ODDS FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE
AFTER AFTER 09Z. ONCE CEILINGS LOWER SATURDAY MORNING...MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KCHS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO LOW-END VFR AT KSAV. IFR VSBYS/CIGS CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WHERE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINS
OCCUR...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT NE ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY
SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. WINDY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MORE
UNIFORM N/NE WINDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. ACCORDINGLY...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 2-3 FT LATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
A STALLED OUT FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WHILE AN
INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN PLACE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
PINCHING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE NORTH OR NE WINDS AS
HIGH AS 15 OR 20 KT. THE RESULTING SEAS WILL PEAK AT 3 OR 4 FT. SO
FOR NOW WE DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY OR
DISSIPATES...BUT A SECOND WAVE OF WILL TAKE SHAPE IN SIMILAR
POSITION TO THE EAST/SE OF THE MARINE AREA. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS
TO THE SW WILL ATTEMPT TO DRAW THE SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT INLAND
WEDGE IS RELUCTANT TO RELAX ITS GRIP ACROSS THE SE...SO ANY VEERING
OF WINDS FROM THE NE AROUND TO THE SE OR SOUTH WILL TAKE SOME
TIME...IF AT ALL DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL AGAIN PEAK AT 15 OR
20 KT PENDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN...WITH SEAS AGAIN
NO MORE THAN 3 OR 4 FT. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL WARM FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY AND GIVES WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY
HOLD WINDS BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...BUT STEADY ISALLOBARIC
PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR MAYBE GALES. NOT YET SURE HOW THE
SITUATION WILL UNFOLD...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW END RISK OF SOME
STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THEN AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP THE MID AND UPPER
50S SHELF WATERS WITHIN A SOUTH AND SW FLOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG PRIOR TO
WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...
GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AT
LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCHS 200458
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1158 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS ONGOING OFF THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST
THIS EVENING WITH SUPPORT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS. THESE FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST
TONIGHT WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS INITIATING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
IN THE VARIOUS MODEL MASS FIELDS WITH ONLY MODEST ISENTROPIC
ASSENT NOTED ALONG THE 290-305K SURFACES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT GULF MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT WITH MODEL PWAT
PROGS SHOWING PWAT VALUES REACHING AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.10 INCHES BY
MID-MORNING SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS NOSE OF
STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASSENT NUDGES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN.

HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF HIGHEST POPS ONCE AGAIN WITH THE LATE
EVENING UPDATE...MAINLY TO DELAY THE ONSET OF CATEGORICAL POPS
UNTIL AFTER 4 AM BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION DATA. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO A CORRIDOR ROUGHLY BOUNDED BY MILLEN-REIDSVILLE-NORTH
CHARLESTON-HARLEYVILLE BOX THROUGH SUNRISE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND FAR WEST TO THE MID- UPPER 40S
CENTRAL...SOUTH AND COASTAL AREAS.

CHANGE SUMMARY FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
* MODIFIED HOURLY POPS TO BETTER FIX THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
  RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS THROUGH 3 AM
  BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND A 50/50 BLEND OF GLAMP AND RAP
  DATA.
* LOWERED QPF THROUGH 20/12Z SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT THAT LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A SHALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND A STALLED FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE SE.
THAT ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FAST MOVING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND AN ELONGATED 125 KT UPPER JET THAT STRETCHES FROM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO TEXAS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT WON/T MATTER AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
BECOMES QUICKLY SATURATED INTO THE MID LEVELS. LIGHT RAINS WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...AND WILL
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DYNAMICS ALOFT. WE MIGHT FIND AN EVEN
SHARPER GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO PRECIP THAN WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING...BUT FIGURE ON NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS OVER MOST OF SC
AND IN MOST COMMUNITIES NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA. POPS THEN TAPER TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER MCINTOSH COUNTY. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BY LATE IN THE DAY OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE
FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE BY
NIGHTFALL. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...OUR QPF IS NO MORE
THAN ABOUT 1/10 TO 2/10 OF AN INCH. COOL AIR WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE
WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF I-16 IN
GA...WITH UPPER 50S TO MAYBE NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE
GULF STREAM. HE LACK OF FORCING UPSTAIRS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
RAIN TO HAVE ENDED...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP INVERSION OFF THE
DECK THAT WILL HOLD IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE. DEPENDING UPON HOW LONG THE BUILD
DOWN OF STRATUS TRANSPIRES WE COULD SEE SOME FOG CONCERNS. LIMITED
COOL ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A
DROP IN TEMPS...AT BEST ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SW LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
EAST/SE...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE. BUT AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS MORE SW IT PULLS THIS FEATURE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND ALSO OPENS UP THE GULF ALOFT FOR IT/S FEED OF
MOISTURE. WE DON/T HAVE TOO MUCH COVERAGE OF RAIN UNTIL THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWING MAINLY 20-30 POPS
SUNDAY...BUT RAMPING UP QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. WE DON/T YET HAVE 100 POPS GIVEN SOME MINOR
TIMING ISSUES...BUT FIGURE THAT EVERYONE WILL GET A STEADY RAIN
DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FORCING
FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET. WITH PWATS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES WE ANTICIPATE
HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY...THEN FALL ONLY ABOUT 6-10 DEGREES AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...WE/RE STILL STUCK WITHIN THE COOL AIR WEDGE REGIME WITH ANY
COASTAL WARM FRONT TO REMAIN OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH FORCING IN RESPONSE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE WARM
FRONT...THE TAIL OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND NEARBY UPPER
JET...PLUS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS. PWATS ACTUALLY MAKE A RUN
FOR ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...SO WE/RE STILL
SHOWING 80-90 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES. THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACHING ZERO. BUT CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY ADDING MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDDED ELEMENTS.
ADDITIONAL QPF OF 1/2 TO 2/3 INCHES. MY CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS NOT
THE GREATEST...BUT WITH COOL AIR DAMMING STILL IN PLACE WE
CONTINUE TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR
MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S
ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE ODDS FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE
AFTER AFTER 09Z. ONCE CEILINGS LOWER SATURDAY MORNING...MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KCHS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO LOW-END VFR AT KSAV. IFR VSBYS/CIGS CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WHERE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINS
OCCUR...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT NE ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY
SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. WINDY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MORE
UNIFORM N/NE WINDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. ACCORDINGLY...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 2-3 FT LATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
A STALLED OUT FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WHILE AN
INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN PLACE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
PINCHING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE NORTH OR NE WINDS AS
HIGH AS 15 OR 20 KT. THE RESULTING SEAS WILL PEAK AT 3 OR 4 FT. SO
FOR NOW WE DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY OR
DISSIPATES...BUT A SECOND WAVE OF WILL TAKE SHAPE IN SIMILAR
POSITION TO THE EAST/SE OF THE MARINE AREA. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS
TO THE SW WILL ATTEMPT TO DRAW THE SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT INLAND
WEDGE IS RELUCTANT TO RELAX ITS GRIP ACROSS THE SE...SO ANY VEERING
OF WINDS FROM THE NE AROUND TO THE SE OR SOUTH WILL TAKE SOME
TIME...IF AT ALL DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL AGAIN PEAK AT 15 OR
20 KT PENDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN...WITH SEAS AGAIN
NO MORE THAN 3 OR 4 FT. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL WARM FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY AND GIVES WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY
HOLD WINDS BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...BUT STEADY ISALLOBARIC
PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR MAYBE GALES. NOT YET SURE HOW THE
SITUATION WILL UNFOLD...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW END RISK OF SOME
STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THEN AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP THE MID AND UPPER
50S SHELF WATERS WITHIN A SOUTH AND SW FLOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG PRIOR TO
WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...
GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AT
LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCHS 200458
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1158 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS ONGOING OFF THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST
THIS EVENING WITH SUPPORT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS. THESE FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST
TONIGHT WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS INITIATING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
IN THE VARIOUS MODEL MASS FIELDS WITH ONLY MODEST ISENTROPIC
ASSENT NOTED ALONG THE 290-305K SURFACES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT GULF MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT WITH MODEL PWAT
PROGS SHOWING PWAT VALUES REACHING AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.10 INCHES BY
MID-MORNING SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS NOSE OF
STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASSENT NUDGES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN.

HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF HIGHEST POPS ONCE AGAIN WITH THE LATE
EVENING UPDATE...MAINLY TO DELAY THE ONSET OF CATEGORICAL POPS
UNTIL AFTER 4 AM BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION DATA. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO A CORRIDOR ROUGHLY BOUNDED BY MILLEN-REIDSVILLE-NORTH
CHARLESTON-HARLEYVILLE BOX THROUGH SUNRISE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND FAR WEST TO THE MID- UPPER 40S
CENTRAL...SOUTH AND COASTAL AREAS.

CHANGE SUMMARY FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
* MODIFIED HOURLY POPS TO BETTER FIX THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
  RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS THROUGH 3 AM
  BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND A 50/50 BLEND OF GLAMP AND RAP
  DATA.
* LOWERED QPF THROUGH 20/12Z SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT THAT LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A SHALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND A STALLED FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE SE.
THAT ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FAST MOVING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND AN ELONGATED 125 KT UPPER JET THAT STRETCHES FROM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO TEXAS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT WON/T MATTER AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
BECOMES QUICKLY SATURATED INTO THE MID LEVELS. LIGHT RAINS WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...AND WILL
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DYNAMICS ALOFT. WE MIGHT FIND AN EVEN
SHARPER GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO PRECIP THAN WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING...BUT FIGURE ON NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS OVER MOST OF SC
AND IN MOST COMMUNITIES NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA. POPS THEN TAPER TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER MCINTOSH COUNTY. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BY LATE IN THE DAY OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE
FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE BY
NIGHTFALL. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...OUR QPF IS NO MORE
THAN ABOUT 1/10 TO 2/10 OF AN INCH. COOL AIR WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE
WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF I-16 IN
GA...WITH UPPER 50S TO MAYBE NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE
GULF STREAM. HE LACK OF FORCING UPSTAIRS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
RAIN TO HAVE ENDED...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP INVERSION OFF THE
DECK THAT WILL HOLD IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE. DEPENDING UPON HOW LONG THE BUILD
DOWN OF STRATUS TRANSPIRES WE COULD SEE SOME FOG CONCERNS. LIMITED
COOL ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A
DROP IN TEMPS...AT BEST ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SW LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
EAST/SE...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE. BUT AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS MORE SW IT PULLS THIS FEATURE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND ALSO OPENS UP THE GULF ALOFT FOR IT/S FEED OF
MOISTURE. WE DON/T HAVE TOO MUCH COVERAGE OF RAIN UNTIL THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWING MAINLY 20-30 POPS
SUNDAY...BUT RAMPING UP QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. WE DON/T YET HAVE 100 POPS GIVEN SOME MINOR
TIMING ISSUES...BUT FIGURE THAT EVERYONE WILL GET A STEADY RAIN
DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FORCING
FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET. WITH PWATS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES WE ANTICIPATE
HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY...THEN FALL ONLY ABOUT 6-10 DEGREES AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...WE/RE STILL STUCK WITHIN THE COOL AIR WEDGE REGIME WITH ANY
COASTAL WARM FRONT TO REMAIN OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH FORCING IN RESPONSE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE WARM
FRONT...THE TAIL OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND NEARBY UPPER
JET...PLUS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS. PWATS ACTUALLY MAKE A RUN
FOR ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...SO WE/RE STILL
SHOWING 80-90 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES. THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACHING ZERO. BUT CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY ADDING MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDDED ELEMENTS.
ADDITIONAL QPF OF 1/2 TO 2/3 INCHES. MY CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS NOT
THE GREATEST...BUT WITH COOL AIR DAMMING STILL IN PLACE WE
CONTINUE TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR
MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S
ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE ODDS FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE
AFTER AFTER 09Z. ONCE CEILINGS LOWER SATURDAY MORNING...MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KCHS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO LOW-END VFR AT KSAV. IFR VSBYS/CIGS CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WHERE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINS
OCCUR...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT NE ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY
SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. WINDY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MORE
UNIFORM N/NE WINDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. ACCORDINGLY...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 2-3 FT LATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
A STALLED OUT FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WHILE AN
INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN PLACE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
PINCHING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE NORTH OR NE WINDS AS
HIGH AS 15 OR 20 KT. THE RESULTING SEAS WILL PEAK AT 3 OR 4 FT. SO
FOR NOW WE DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY OR
DISSIPATES...BUT A SECOND WAVE OF WILL TAKE SHAPE IN SIMILAR
POSITION TO THE EAST/SE OF THE MARINE AREA. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS
TO THE SW WILL ATTEMPT TO DRAW THE SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT INLAND
WEDGE IS RELUCTANT TO RELAX ITS GRIP ACROSS THE SE...SO ANY VEERING
OF WINDS FROM THE NE AROUND TO THE SE OR SOUTH WILL TAKE SOME
TIME...IF AT ALL DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL AGAIN PEAK AT 15 OR
20 KT PENDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN...WITH SEAS AGAIN
NO MORE THAN 3 OR 4 FT. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL WARM FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY AND GIVES WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY
HOLD WINDS BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...BUT STEADY ISALLOBARIC
PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR MAYBE GALES. NOT YET SURE HOW THE
SITUATION WILL UNFOLD...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW END RISK OF SOME
STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THEN AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP THE MID AND UPPER
50S SHELF WATERS WITHIN A SOUTH AND SW FLOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG PRIOR TO
WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...
GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AT
LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCHS 200458
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1158 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS ONGOING OFF THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST
THIS EVENING WITH SUPPORT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS. THESE FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST
TONIGHT WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS INITIATING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
IN THE VARIOUS MODEL MASS FIELDS WITH ONLY MODEST ISENTROPIC
ASSENT NOTED ALONG THE 290-305K SURFACES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT GULF MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT WITH MODEL PWAT
PROGS SHOWING PWAT VALUES REACHING AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.10 INCHES BY
MID-MORNING SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS NOSE OF
STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASSENT NUDGES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN.

HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF HIGHEST POPS ONCE AGAIN WITH THE LATE
EVENING UPDATE...MAINLY TO DELAY THE ONSET OF CATEGORICAL POPS
UNTIL AFTER 4 AM BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION DATA. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO A CORRIDOR ROUGHLY BOUNDED BY MILLEN-REIDSVILLE-NORTH
CHARLESTON-HARLEYVILLE BOX THROUGH SUNRISE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND FAR WEST TO THE MID- UPPER 40S
CENTRAL...SOUTH AND COASTAL AREAS.

CHANGE SUMMARY FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
* MODIFIED HOURLY POPS TO BETTER FIX THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
  RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS THROUGH 3 AM
  BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND A 50/50 BLEND OF GLAMP AND RAP
  DATA.
* LOWERED QPF THROUGH 20/12Z SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT THAT LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A SHALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND A STALLED FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE SE.
THAT ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FAST MOVING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND AN ELONGATED 125 KT UPPER JET THAT STRETCHES FROM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO TEXAS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT WON/T MATTER AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
BECOMES QUICKLY SATURATED INTO THE MID LEVELS. LIGHT RAINS WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...AND WILL
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DYNAMICS ALOFT. WE MIGHT FIND AN EVEN
SHARPER GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO PRECIP THAN WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING...BUT FIGURE ON NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS OVER MOST OF SC
AND IN MOST COMMUNITIES NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA. POPS THEN TAPER TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER MCINTOSH COUNTY. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BY LATE IN THE DAY OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE
FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE BY
NIGHTFALL. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...OUR QPF IS NO MORE
THAN ABOUT 1/10 TO 2/10 OF AN INCH. COOL AIR WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE
WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF I-16 IN
GA...WITH UPPER 50S TO MAYBE NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE
GULF STREAM. HE LACK OF FORCING UPSTAIRS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
RAIN TO HAVE ENDED...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP INVERSION OFF THE
DECK THAT WILL HOLD IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE. DEPENDING UPON HOW LONG THE BUILD
DOWN OF STRATUS TRANSPIRES WE COULD SEE SOME FOG CONCERNS. LIMITED
COOL ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A
DROP IN TEMPS...AT BEST ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SW LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
EAST/SE...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE. BUT AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS MORE SW IT PULLS THIS FEATURE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND ALSO OPENS UP THE GULF ALOFT FOR IT/S FEED OF
MOISTURE. WE DON/T HAVE TOO MUCH COVERAGE OF RAIN UNTIL THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWING MAINLY 20-30 POPS
SUNDAY...BUT RAMPING UP QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. WE DON/T YET HAVE 100 POPS GIVEN SOME MINOR
TIMING ISSUES...BUT FIGURE THAT EVERYONE WILL GET A STEADY RAIN
DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FORCING
FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET. WITH PWATS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES WE ANTICIPATE
HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY...THEN FALL ONLY ABOUT 6-10 DEGREES AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...WE/RE STILL STUCK WITHIN THE COOL AIR WEDGE REGIME WITH ANY
COASTAL WARM FRONT TO REMAIN OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH FORCING IN RESPONSE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE WARM
FRONT...THE TAIL OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND NEARBY UPPER
JET...PLUS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS. PWATS ACTUALLY MAKE A RUN
FOR ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...SO WE/RE STILL
SHOWING 80-90 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES. THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACHING ZERO. BUT CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY ADDING MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDDED ELEMENTS.
ADDITIONAL QPF OF 1/2 TO 2/3 INCHES. MY CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS NOT
THE GREATEST...BUT WITH COOL AIR DAMMING STILL IN PLACE WE
CONTINUE TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR
MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S
ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE ODDS FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE
AFTER AFTER 09Z. ONCE CEILINGS LOWER SATURDAY MORNING...MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KCHS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO LOW-END VFR AT KSAV. IFR VSBYS/CIGS CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WHERE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINS
OCCUR...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT NE ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY
SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. WINDY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MORE
UNIFORM N/NE WINDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. ACCORDINGLY...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 2-3 FT LATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
A STALLED OUT FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WHILE AN
INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN PLACE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
PINCHING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE NORTH OR NE WINDS AS
HIGH AS 15 OR 20 KT. THE RESULTING SEAS WILL PEAK AT 3 OR 4 FT. SO
FOR NOW WE DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY OR
DISSIPATES...BUT A SECOND WAVE OF WILL TAKE SHAPE IN SIMILAR
POSITION TO THE EAST/SE OF THE MARINE AREA. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS
TO THE SW WILL ATTEMPT TO DRAW THE SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT INLAND
WEDGE IS RELUCTANT TO RELAX ITS GRIP ACROSS THE SE...SO ANY VEERING
OF WINDS FROM THE NE AROUND TO THE SE OR SOUTH WILL TAKE SOME
TIME...IF AT ALL DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL AGAIN PEAK AT 15 OR
20 KT PENDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN...WITH SEAS AGAIN
NO MORE THAN 3 OR 4 FT. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL WARM FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY AND GIVES WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY
HOLD WINDS BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...BUT STEADY ISALLOBARIC
PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR MAYBE GALES. NOT YET SURE HOW THE
SITUATION WILL UNFOLD...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW END RISK OF SOME
STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THEN AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP THE MID AND UPPER
50S SHELF WATERS WITHIN A SOUTH AND SW FLOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG PRIOR TO
WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...
GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AT
LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KFFC 200241 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
941 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION SPREADING
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. CURRENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THESE TRENDS WELL AND
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CIRRUS HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER PUSHING IN. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO INCREASING IN ADVANCE
OF DEEPENING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BUT WITH THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT A SURFACE LOW
IS DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST GULF WITH MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...THOUGH 12Z MODELS DID INCREASE THE TOTALS
JUST A TAD...STILL UNDER 0.5 INCHES EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME AREAS
/ESPECIALLY NORTH GEORGIA/ HARDLY SEEING ANY. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WE
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WHICH MIGHT SERVE TO CUT OF DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION EVEN MORE. HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF CATEGORICAL POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA. PRETTY MUCH 0 INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO CONTINUED ALL RAIN WORDING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE
ABOVE NORMAL...WILL BE HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME BRIEF FLURRIES ESPECIALLY AT ONSET ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BUT
OVERALL JUST A COLD LIGHT RAIN.

AS THE SHORTWAVE DAMPS ON SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE HIGH
BEGINS DAMMING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE SHORT TERM AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE PULLS NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED.

WENT WITH A GENERAL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES BUT ESPECIALLY HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
PRECIPITATION AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES EVEN
LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AS IT IS...EXPECT HIGHS ABOUT NORMAL
AND LOWS HELD SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE.

TDP

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR SOMETHING OTHER THAN RAIN LOOKS TO BE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OVER FAR N GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM... WITH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER COOL WEDGE SETTING UP ON SUNDAY AND GETTING OVERRUN WITH A
MOIST MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS GETS ENHANCED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF MAINLY RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO HOLD STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE STATE AND WARRANT A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...
INSTABILITIES AND ANY THUNDER THREAT APPEARS TO REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THIS CHANGES TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS AGREE ON A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENING
OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY... THEN KICKING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT... ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING 200-600 MUCAPE NOSING UP ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COUPLED
WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL
WARRANT ADDING MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT SUSPECT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED UPPER FORCING. STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT AS INSTABILITIES AND DEEP
SHEAR REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST FOR NOW... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THIS POTENTIAL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA
WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITIES AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...  WRAP AROUND MOISTURE... STRONG UPPER FORCING AND
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING... BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH AIR AND GROUND TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE SNOW SHOWERS POTENTIAL RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY MORNING... BUT WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. OTHERWISE... EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS TO
DOMINATE MOSTLY ON THURSDAY.

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WILL LOWER TO MVFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
6KT OR LESS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY 06Z AND NORTHEAST TO EAST
AFTER 12Z. A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT OT OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN
SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...AND ENDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          40  51  38  51 /  80  70  20  30
ATLANTA         42  53  42  52 /  80  70  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     37  49  36  50 /  80  50  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    37  53  37  52 /  80  60  10  20
COLUMBUS        45  55  45  54 / 100  90  20  30
GAINESVILLE     40  50  38  50 /  80  60  20  30
MACON           44  55  43  54 /  90  90  20  30
ROME            37  52  35  53 /  80  50  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  40  54  37  52 /  90  80  20  30
VIDALIA         47  56  45  56 /  80  80  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 200241 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
941 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION SPREADING
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. CURRENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THESE TRENDS WELL AND
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CIRRUS HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER PUSHING IN. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO INCREASING IN ADVANCE
OF DEEPENING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BUT WITH THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT A SURFACE LOW
IS DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST GULF WITH MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...THOUGH 12Z MODELS DID INCREASE THE TOTALS
JUST A TAD...STILL UNDER 0.5 INCHES EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME AREAS
/ESPECIALLY NORTH GEORGIA/ HARDLY SEEING ANY. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WE
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WHICH MIGHT SERVE TO CUT OF DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION EVEN MORE. HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF CATEGORICAL POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA. PRETTY MUCH 0 INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO CONTINUED ALL RAIN WORDING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE
ABOVE NORMAL...WILL BE HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME BRIEF FLURRIES ESPECIALLY AT ONSET ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BUT
OVERALL JUST A COLD LIGHT RAIN.

AS THE SHORTWAVE DAMPS ON SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE HIGH
BEGINS DAMMING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE SHORT TERM AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE PULLS NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED.

WENT WITH A GENERAL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES BUT ESPECIALLY HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
PRECIPITATION AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES EVEN
LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AS IT IS...EXPECT HIGHS ABOUT NORMAL
AND LOWS HELD SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE.

TDP

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR SOMETHING OTHER THAN RAIN LOOKS TO BE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OVER FAR N GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM... WITH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER COOL WEDGE SETTING UP ON SUNDAY AND GETTING OVERRUN WITH A
MOIST MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS GETS ENHANCED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF MAINLY RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO HOLD STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE STATE AND WARRANT A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...
INSTABILITIES AND ANY THUNDER THREAT APPEARS TO REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THIS CHANGES TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS AGREE ON A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENING
OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY... THEN KICKING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT... ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING 200-600 MUCAPE NOSING UP ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COUPLED
WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL
WARRANT ADDING MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT SUSPECT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED UPPER FORCING. STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT AS INSTABILITIES AND DEEP
SHEAR REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST FOR NOW... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THIS POTENTIAL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA
WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITIES AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...  WRAP AROUND MOISTURE... STRONG UPPER FORCING AND
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING... BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH AIR AND GROUND TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE SNOW SHOWERS POTENTIAL RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY MORNING... BUT WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. OTHERWISE... EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS TO
DOMINATE MOSTLY ON THURSDAY.

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WILL LOWER TO MVFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
6KT OR LESS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY 06Z AND NORTHEAST TO EAST
AFTER 12Z. A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT OT OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN
SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...AND ENDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          40  51  38  51 /  80  70  20  30
ATLANTA         42  53  42  52 /  80  70  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     37  49  36  50 /  80  50  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    37  53  37  52 /  80  60  10  20
COLUMBUS        45  55  45  54 / 100  90  20  30
GAINESVILLE     40  50  38  50 /  80  60  20  30
MACON           44  55  43  54 /  90  90  20  30
ROME            37  52  35  53 /  80  50  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  40  54  37  52 /  90  80  20  30
VIDALIA         47  56  45  56 /  80  80  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 200241 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
941 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION SPREADING
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. CURRENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THESE TRENDS WELL AND
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CIRRUS HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER PUSHING IN. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO INCREASING IN ADVANCE
OF DEEPENING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BUT WITH THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT A SURFACE LOW
IS DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST GULF WITH MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...THOUGH 12Z MODELS DID INCREASE THE TOTALS
JUST A TAD...STILL UNDER 0.5 INCHES EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME AREAS
/ESPECIALLY NORTH GEORGIA/ HARDLY SEEING ANY. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WE
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WHICH MIGHT SERVE TO CUT OF DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION EVEN MORE. HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF CATEGORICAL POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA. PRETTY MUCH 0 INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO CONTINUED ALL RAIN WORDING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE
ABOVE NORMAL...WILL BE HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME BRIEF FLURRIES ESPECIALLY AT ONSET ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BUT
OVERALL JUST A COLD LIGHT RAIN.

AS THE SHORTWAVE DAMPS ON SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE HIGH
BEGINS DAMMING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE SHORT TERM AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE PULLS NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED.

WENT WITH A GENERAL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES BUT ESPECIALLY HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
PRECIPITATION AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES EVEN
LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AS IT IS...EXPECT HIGHS ABOUT NORMAL
AND LOWS HELD SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE.

TDP

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR SOMETHING OTHER THAN RAIN LOOKS TO BE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OVER FAR N GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM... WITH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER COOL WEDGE SETTING UP ON SUNDAY AND GETTING OVERRUN WITH A
MOIST MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS GETS ENHANCED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF MAINLY RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO HOLD STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE STATE AND WARRANT A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...
INSTABILITIES AND ANY THUNDER THREAT APPEARS TO REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THIS CHANGES TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS AGREE ON A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENING
OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY... THEN KICKING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT... ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING 200-600 MUCAPE NOSING UP ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COUPLED
WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL
WARRANT ADDING MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT SUSPECT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED UPPER FORCING. STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT AS INSTABILITIES AND DEEP
SHEAR REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST FOR NOW... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THIS POTENTIAL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA
WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITIES AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...  WRAP AROUND MOISTURE... STRONG UPPER FORCING AND
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING... BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH AIR AND GROUND TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE SNOW SHOWERS POTENTIAL RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY MORNING... BUT WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. OTHERWISE... EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS TO
DOMINATE MOSTLY ON THURSDAY.

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WILL LOWER TO MVFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
6KT OR LESS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY 06Z AND NORTHEAST TO EAST
AFTER 12Z. A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT OT OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN
SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...AND ENDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          40  51  38  51 /  80  70  20  30
ATLANTA         42  53  42  52 /  80  70  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     37  49  36  50 /  80  50  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    37  53  37  52 /  80  60  10  20
COLUMBUS        45  55  45  54 / 100  90  20  30
GAINESVILLE     40  50  38  50 /  80  60  20  30
MACON           44  55  43  54 /  90  90  20  30
ROME            37  52  35  53 /  80  50  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  40  54  37  52 /  90  80  20  30
VIDALIA         47  56  45  56 /  80  80  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 200241 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
941 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION SPREADING
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. CURRENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THESE TRENDS WELL AND
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CIRRUS HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER PUSHING IN. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO INCREASING IN ADVANCE
OF DEEPENING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BUT WITH THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT A SURFACE LOW
IS DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST GULF WITH MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...THOUGH 12Z MODELS DID INCREASE THE TOTALS
JUST A TAD...STILL UNDER 0.5 INCHES EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME AREAS
/ESPECIALLY NORTH GEORGIA/ HARDLY SEEING ANY. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WE
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WHICH MIGHT SERVE TO CUT OF DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION EVEN MORE. HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF CATEGORICAL POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA. PRETTY MUCH 0 INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO CONTINUED ALL RAIN WORDING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE
ABOVE NORMAL...WILL BE HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME BRIEF FLURRIES ESPECIALLY AT ONSET ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BUT
OVERALL JUST A COLD LIGHT RAIN.

AS THE SHORTWAVE DAMPS ON SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE HIGH
BEGINS DAMMING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE SHORT TERM AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE PULLS NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED.

WENT WITH A GENERAL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES BUT ESPECIALLY HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
PRECIPITATION AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES EVEN
LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AS IT IS...EXPECT HIGHS ABOUT NORMAL
AND LOWS HELD SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE.

TDP

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR SOMETHING OTHER THAN RAIN LOOKS TO BE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OVER FAR N GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM... WITH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER COOL WEDGE SETTING UP ON SUNDAY AND GETTING OVERRUN WITH A
MOIST MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS GETS ENHANCED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF MAINLY RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO HOLD STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE STATE AND WARRANT A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...
INSTABILITIES AND ANY THUNDER THREAT APPEARS TO REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THIS CHANGES TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS AGREE ON A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENING
OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY... THEN KICKING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT... ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING 200-600 MUCAPE NOSING UP ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COUPLED
WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL
WARRANT ADDING MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT SUSPECT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED UPPER FORCING. STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT AS INSTABILITIES AND DEEP
SHEAR REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST FOR NOW... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THIS POTENTIAL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA
WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITIES AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...  WRAP AROUND MOISTURE... STRONG UPPER FORCING AND
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING... BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH AIR AND GROUND TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE SNOW SHOWERS POTENTIAL RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY MORNING... BUT WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. OTHERWISE... EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS TO
DOMINATE MOSTLY ON THURSDAY.

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WILL LOWER TO MVFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
6KT OR LESS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY 06Z AND NORTHEAST TO EAST
AFTER 12Z. A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT OT OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN
SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...AND ENDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          40  51  38  51 /  80  70  20  30
ATLANTA         42  53  42  52 /  80  70  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     37  49  36  50 /  80  50  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    37  53  37  52 /  80  60  10  20
COLUMBUS        45  55  45  54 / 100  90  20  30
GAINESVILLE     40  50  38  50 /  80  60  20  30
MACON           44  55  43  54 /  90  90  20  30
ROME            37  52  35  53 /  80  50  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  40  54  37  52 /  90  80  20  30
VIDALIA         47  56  45  56 /  80  80  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KCHS 200216
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
916 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS ONGOING OFF THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST
THIS EVENING WITH SUPPORT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS. THESE FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST
TONIGHT WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS INITIATING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
IN THE VARIOUS MODEL MASS FIELDS WITH ONLY MODEST ISENTROPIC
ASSENT NOTED ALONG THE 290-305K SURFACES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT GULF MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT WITH MODEL PWAT
PROGS SHOWING PWAT VALUES REACHING AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.10 INCHES BY
MID-MORNING SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS NOSE OF
STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASSENT NUDGES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN.

HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF HIGHEST POPS ONCE AGAIN WITH THE LATE
EVENING UPDATE...MAINLY TO DELAY THE ONSET OF CATEGORICAL POPS
UNTIL AFTER 4 AM BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION DATA. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO A CORRIDOR ROUGHLY BOUNDED BY MILLEN-REIDSVILLE-NORTH
CHARLESTON-HARLEYVILLE BOX THROUGH SUNRISE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND FAR WEST TO THE MID- UPPER 40S
CENTRAL...SOUTH AND COASTAL AREAS.

CHANGE SUMMARY FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
* MODIFIED HOURLY POPS TO BETTER FIX THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
  RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS THROUGH 3 AM
  BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND A 50/50 BLEND OF GLAMP AND RAP
  DATA.
* LOWERED QPF THROUGH 20/12Z SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT THAT LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A SHALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND A STALLED FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE SE.
THAT ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FAST MOVING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND AN ELONGATED 125 KT UPPER JET THAT STRETCHES FROM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO TEXAS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT WON/T MATTER AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
BECOMES QUICKLY SATURATED INTO THE MID LEVELS. LIGHT RAINS WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...AND WILL
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DYNAMICS ALOFT. WE MIGHT FIND AN EVEN
SHARPER GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO PRECIP THAN WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING...BUT FIGURE ON NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS OVER MOST OF SC
AND IN MOST COMMUNITIES NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA. POPS THEN TAPER TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER MCINTOSH COUNTY. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BY LATE IN THE DAY OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE
FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE BY
NIGHTFALL. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...OUR QPF IS NO MORE
THAN ABOUT 1/10 TO 2/10 OF AN INCH. COOL AIR WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE
WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF I-16 IN
GA...WITH UPPER 50S TO MAYBE NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE
GULF STREAM. HE LACK OF FORCING UPSTAIRS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
RAIN TO HAVE ENDED...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP INVERSION OFF THE
DECK THAT WILL HOLD IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE. DEPENDING UPON HOW LONG THE BUILD
DOWN OF STRATUS TRANSPIRES WE COULD SEE SOME FOG CONCERNS. LIMITED
COOL ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A
DROP IN TEMPS...AT BEST ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SW LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
EAST/SE...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE. BUT AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS MORE SW IT PULLS THIS FEATURE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE COST AND ALSO OPENS UP THE GULF ALOFT FOR IT/S FEED OF
MOISTURE. WE DON/T HAVE TOO MUCH COVERAGE OF RAIN UNTIL THE ARRIVAL
OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWING MAINLY 20-30 POPS SUNDAY...BUT RAMPING
UP QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. WE
DON/T YET HAVE 100 POPS GIVEN SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES...BUT FIGURE
THAT EVERYONE WILL GET A STEADY RAIN DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. WITH PWATS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.4
TO 1.5 INCHES WE ANTICIPATE HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE 1/2 TO 3/4
INCH RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY...THEN FALL
ONLY ABOUT 6-10 DEGREES AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...WE/RE STILL STUCK WITHIN THE COOL AIR WEDGE REGIME WITH ANY
COASTAL WARM FRONT TO REMAIN OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH FORCING IN RESPONSE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE WARM
FRONT...THE TAIL OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND NEARBY UPPER
JET...PLUS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS. PWATS ACTUALLY MAKE A RUN
FOR ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...SO WE/RE STILL
SHOWING 80-90 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES. THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACHING ZERO. BUT CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY ADDING MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDDED ELEMENTS.
ADDITIONAL QPF OF 1/2 TO 2/3 INCHES. MY CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS NOT
THE GREATEST...BUT WITH COOL AIR DAMMING STILL IN PLACE WE
CONTINUE TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE ODDS FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE
AFTER AFTER 09Z. ONCE CEILINGS LOWER SATURDAY MORNING...MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KCHS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO LOW-END VFR AT KSAV. IFR VSBYS/CIGS CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WHERE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINS
OCCUR...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT NE ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY
SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. WINDY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MORE
UNIFORM N/NE WINDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. ACCORDINGLY...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 2-3 FT LATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
A STALLED OUT FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WHILE AN
INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN PLACE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
PINCHING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE NORTH OR NE WINDS AS
HIGH AS 15 OR 20 KT. THE RESULTING SEAS WILL PEAK AT 3 OR 4 FT. SO
FOR NOW WE DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY OR
DISSIPATES...BUT A SECOND WAVE OF WILL TAKE SHAPE IN SIMILAR
POSITION TO THE EAST/SE OF THE MARINE AREA. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS
TO THE SW WILL ATTEMPT TO DRAW THE SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT INLAND
WEDGE IS RELUCTANT TO RELAX ITS GRIP ACROSS THE SE...SO ANY VEERING
OF WINDS FROM THE NE AROUND TO THE SE OR SOUTH WILL TAKE SOME
TIME...IF AT ALL DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL AGAIN PEAK AT 15 OR
20 KT PENDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN...WITH SEAS AGAIN
NO MORE THAN 3 OR 4 FT. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL WARM FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY AND GIVES WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY
HOLD WINDS BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...BUT STEADY ISALLOBARIC
PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR MAYBE GALES. NOT YET SURE HOW THE
SITUATION WILL UNFOLD...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW END RISK OF SOME
STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THEN AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP THE MID AND UPPER
50S SHELF WATERS WITHIN A SOUTH AND SW FLOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG PRIOR TO
WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...
GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AT
LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCHS 200216
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
916 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS ONGOING OFF THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST
THIS EVENING WITH SUPPORT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS. THESE FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST
TONIGHT WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS INITIATING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
IN THE VARIOUS MODEL MASS FIELDS WITH ONLY MODEST ISENTROPIC
ASSENT NOTED ALONG THE 290-305K SURFACES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT GULF MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT WITH MODEL PWAT
PROGS SHOWING PWAT VALUES REACHING AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.10 INCHES BY
MID-MORNING SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS NOSE OF
STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASSENT NUDGES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN.

HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF HIGHEST POPS ONCE AGAIN WITH THE LATE
EVENING UPDATE...MAINLY TO DELAY THE ONSET OF CATEGORICAL POPS
UNTIL AFTER 4 AM BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION DATA. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO A CORRIDOR ROUGHLY BOUNDED BY MILLEN-REIDSVILLE-NORTH
CHARLESTON-HARLEYVILLE BOX THROUGH SUNRISE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND FAR WEST TO THE MID- UPPER 40S
CENTRAL...SOUTH AND COASTAL AREAS.

CHANGE SUMMARY FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
* MODIFIED HOURLY POPS TO BETTER FIX THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
  RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS THROUGH 3 AM
  BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND A 50/50 BLEND OF GLAMP AND RAP
  DATA.
* LOWERED QPF THROUGH 20/12Z SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT THAT LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A SHALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND A STALLED FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE SE.
THAT ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FAST MOVING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND AN ELONGATED 125 KT UPPER JET THAT STRETCHES FROM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO TEXAS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT WON/T MATTER AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
BECOMES QUICKLY SATURATED INTO THE MID LEVELS. LIGHT RAINS WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...AND WILL
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DYNAMICS ALOFT. WE MIGHT FIND AN EVEN
SHARPER GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO PRECIP THAN WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING...BUT FIGURE ON NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS OVER MOST OF SC
AND IN MOST COMMUNITIES NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA. POPS THEN TAPER TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER MCINTOSH COUNTY. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BY LATE IN THE DAY OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE
FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE BY
NIGHTFALL. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...OUR QPF IS NO MORE
THAN ABOUT 1/10 TO 2/10 OF AN INCH. COOL AIR WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE
WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF I-16 IN
GA...WITH UPPER 50S TO MAYBE NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE
GULF STREAM. HE LACK OF FORCING UPSTAIRS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
RAIN TO HAVE ENDED...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP INVERSION OFF THE
DECK THAT WILL HOLD IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE. DEPENDING UPON HOW LONG THE BUILD
DOWN OF STRATUS TRANSPIRES WE COULD SEE SOME FOG CONCERNS. LIMITED
COOL ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A
DROP IN TEMPS...AT BEST ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SW LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
EAST/SE...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE. BUT AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS MORE SW IT PULLS THIS FEATURE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE COST AND ALSO OPENS UP THE GULF ALOFT FOR IT/S FEED OF
MOISTURE. WE DON/T HAVE TOO MUCH COVERAGE OF RAIN UNTIL THE ARRIVAL
OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWING MAINLY 20-30 POPS SUNDAY...BUT RAMPING
UP QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. WE
DON/T YET HAVE 100 POPS GIVEN SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES...BUT FIGURE
THAT EVERYONE WILL GET A STEADY RAIN DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. WITH PWATS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.4
TO 1.5 INCHES WE ANTICIPATE HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE 1/2 TO 3/4
INCH RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY...THEN FALL
ONLY ABOUT 6-10 DEGREES AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...WE/RE STILL STUCK WITHIN THE COOL AIR WEDGE REGIME WITH ANY
COASTAL WARM FRONT TO REMAIN OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH FORCING IN RESPONSE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE WARM
FRONT...THE TAIL OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND NEARBY UPPER
JET...PLUS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS. PWATS ACTUALLY MAKE A RUN
FOR ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...SO WE/RE STILL
SHOWING 80-90 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES. THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACHING ZERO. BUT CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY ADDING MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDDED ELEMENTS.
ADDITIONAL QPF OF 1/2 TO 2/3 INCHES. MY CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS NOT
THE GREATEST...BUT WITH COOL AIR DAMMING STILL IN PLACE WE
CONTINUE TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE ODDS FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE
AFTER AFTER 09Z. ONCE CEILINGS LOWER SATURDAY MORNING...MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KCHS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO LOW-END VFR AT KSAV. IFR VSBYS/CIGS CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WHERE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINS
OCCUR...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT NE ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY
SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. WINDY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MORE
UNIFORM N/NE WINDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. ACCORDINGLY...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 2-3 FT LATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
A STALLED OUT FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WHILE AN
INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN PLACE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
PINCHING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE NORTH OR NE WINDS AS
HIGH AS 15 OR 20 KT. THE RESULTING SEAS WILL PEAK AT 3 OR 4 FT. SO
FOR NOW WE DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY OR
DISSIPATES...BUT A SECOND WAVE OF WILL TAKE SHAPE IN SIMILAR
POSITION TO THE EAST/SE OF THE MARINE AREA. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS
TO THE SW WILL ATTEMPT TO DRAW THE SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT INLAND
WEDGE IS RELUCTANT TO RELAX ITS GRIP ACROSS THE SE...SO ANY VEERING
OF WINDS FROM THE NE AROUND TO THE SE OR SOUTH WILL TAKE SOME
TIME...IF AT ALL DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL AGAIN PEAK AT 15 OR
20 KT PENDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN...WITH SEAS AGAIN
NO MORE THAN 3 OR 4 FT. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL WARM FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY AND GIVES WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY
HOLD WINDS BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...BUT STEADY ISALLOBARIC
PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR MAYBE GALES. NOT YET SURE HOW THE
SITUATION WILL UNFOLD...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW END RISK OF SOME
STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THEN AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP THE MID AND UPPER
50S SHELF WATERS WITHIN A SOUTH AND SW FLOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG PRIOR TO
WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...
GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AT
LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCAE 200108
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
808 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE.
ISENTROPIC LIFTING BEGINS IN EARNEST AFTER AROUND 08Z AND
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE AREA AROUND 07Z-09Z. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE AN HOUR
OR SO OF MOISTENING IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE
RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE GIVING ONLY
CHANCE POPS THROUGH 12Z WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AS TIMING OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION USUALLY ARRIVES EARLIER THAN FORECAST BY
THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXPECTED. DESPITE SOME TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 30S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM/GFS/ENSEMBLES SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAINLY AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...NEAR BEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR
SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND COOL NE SURFACE FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM AND HAVE STAYED WITH
CURRENT TRENDS OF BELOW CONSENSUS.

THE MOISTURE REALLY THINS OUT AS THE S/W EXITS THE REGION TO THE
EAST. BELIEVE THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
POPS WERE NEAR 10 PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE BY LATE
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT LATE IN THE DAY. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH SUNDAY BECAUSE OF
EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL TO
LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LI
FIELD SHOWS DEPARTING WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA. LIS BETWEEN -1 AND -3
AND STRONG SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY NEED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GOOD
CAA AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THICKENING CLOUDS WHICH WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFTING BECOMES STRONGER. LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 07Z AGS/DNL AND
09Z CAE/CUB/OGB WITH LOWERING VSBYS IN RAIN AT AGS/DNL/OGB AFTER
12Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WHILE MVFR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS HOLD STEADY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF
COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 200108
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
808 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE.
ISENTROPIC LIFTING BEGINS IN EARNEST AFTER AROUND 08Z AND
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE AREA AROUND 07Z-09Z. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE AN HOUR
OR SO OF MOISTENING IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE
RAIN REACHES THE SURFACE. DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE GIVING ONLY
CHANCE POPS THROUGH 12Z WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AS TIMING OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION USUALLY ARRIVES EARLIER THAN FORECAST BY
THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXPECTED. DESPITE SOME TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 30S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM/GFS/ENSEMBLES SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAINLY AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...NEAR BEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR
SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND COOL NE SURFACE FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM AND HAVE STAYED WITH
CURRENT TRENDS OF BELOW CONSENSUS.

THE MOISTURE REALLY THINS OUT AS THE S/W EXITS THE REGION TO THE
EAST. BELIEVE THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
POPS WERE NEAR 10 PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE BY LATE
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT LATE IN THE DAY. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH SUNDAY BECAUSE OF
EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL TO
LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LI
FIELD SHOWS DEPARTING WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA. LIS BETWEEN -1 AND -3
AND STRONG SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY NEED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GOOD
CAA AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THICKENING CLOUDS WHICH WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFTING BECOMES STRONGER. LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 07Z AGS/DNL AND
09Z CAE/CUB/OGB WITH LOWERING VSBYS IN RAIN AT AGS/DNL/OGB AFTER
12Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WHILE MVFR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS HOLD STEADY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF
COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 192343
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE. ISENTROPIC
LIFTING BEGINS IN EARNEST AFTER AROUND 08Z AND CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
AREA AROUND 07Z-09Z. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE AN HOUR OR SO OF
MOISTENING IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE RAIN
REACHES THE SURFACE. DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE GIVING ONLY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH 12Z WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AS TIMING OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION USUALLY ARRIVES EARLIER THAN FORECAST BY
THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXPECTED. DESPITE SOME TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 30S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM/GFS/ENSEMBLES SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAINLY AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...NEAR BEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR
SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND COOL NE SURFACE FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM AND HAVE STAYED WITH
CURRENT TRENDS OF BELOW CONSENSUS.

THE MOISTURE REALLY THINS OUT AS THE S/W EXITS THE REGION TO THE
EAST. BELIEVE THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
POPS WERE NEAR 10 PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE BY LATE
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT LATE IN THE DAY. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH SUNDAY BECAUSE OF
EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL TO
LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LI
FIELD SHOWS DEPARTING WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA. LIS BETWEEN -1 AND -3
AND STRONG SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY NEED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GOOD
CAA AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THICKENING CLOUDS WHICH WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFTING BECOMES STRONGER. LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 07Z AGS/DNL AND
09Z CAE/CUB/OGB WITH LOWERING VSBYS IN RAIN AT AGS/DNL/OGB AFTER
12Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WHILE MVFR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS HOLD STEADY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF
COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 192338 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
640 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CIRRUS HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER PUSHING IN. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO INCREASING IN ADVANCE
OF DEEPENING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BUT WITH THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT A SURFACE LOW
IS DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST GULF WITH MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...THOUGH 12Z MODELS DID INCREASE THE TOTALS
JUST A TAD...STILL UNDER 0.5 INCHES EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME AREAS
/ESPECIALLY NORTH GEORGIA/ HARDLY SEEING ANY. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WE
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WHICH MIGHT SERVE TO CUT OF DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION EVEN MORE. HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF CATEGORICAL POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA. PRETTY MUCH 0 INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO CONTINUED ALL RAIN WORDING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE
ABOVE NORMAL...WILL BE HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME BRIEF FLURRIES ESPECIALLY AT ONSET ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BUT
OVERALL JUST A COLD LIGHT RAIN.

AS THE SHORTWAVE DAMPS ON SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE HIGH
BEGINS DAMMING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE SHORT TERM AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE PULLS NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED.

WENT WITH A GENERAL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES BUT ESPECIALLY HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
PRECIPITATION AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES EVEN
LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AS IT IS...EXPECT HIGHS ABOUT NORMAL
AND LOWS HELD SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE.

TDP

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR SOMETHING OTHER THAN RAIN LOOKS TO BE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OVER FAR N GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM... WITH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER COOL WEDGE SETTING UP ON SUNDAY AND GETTING OVERRUN WITH A
MOIST MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS GETS ENHANCED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF MAINLY RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO HOLD STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE STATE AND WARRANT A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...
INSTABILITIES AND ANY THUNDER THREAT APPEARS TO REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THIS CHANGES TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS AGREE ON A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENING
OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY... THEN KICKING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT... ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING 200-600 MUCAPE NOSING UP ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COUPLED
WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL
WARRANT ADDING MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT SUSPECT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED UPPER FORCING. STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT AS INSTABILITIES AND DEEP
SHEAR REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST FOR NOW... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THIS POTENTIAL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA
WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITIES AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...  WRAP AROUND MOISTURE... STRONG UPPER FORCING AND
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING... BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH AIR AND GROUND TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE SNOW SHOWERS POTENTIAL RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY MORNING... BUT WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. OTHERWISE... EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS TO
DOMINATE MOSTLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WILL LOWER TO MVFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
6KT OR LESS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY 06Z AND NORTHEAST TO EAST
AFTER 12Z. A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT OT OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN
SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...AND ENDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          41  51  38  51 /  80  70  20  30
ATLANTA         42  53  42  52 /  80  70  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     37  49  36  50 /  80  50  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    37  53  37  52 /  80  60  10  20
COLUMBUS        44  55  45  54 / 100  90  20  30
GAINESVILLE     40  50  38  50 /  80  60  20  30
MACON           44  55  43  54 /  90  90  20  30
ROME            36  52  35  53 /  80  50  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  39  54  37  52 /  90  80  20  30
VIDALIA         47  56  45  56 /  80  80  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KCHS 192316
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
616 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS ONGOING EARLY THIS EVENING SOUTH OFF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WITH SUPPORT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS. THESE FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST
TONIGHT WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS INITIATING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
IN THE VARIOUS MODEL MASS FIELDS WITH ONLY MODEST ISENTROPIC
ASSENT NOTED ALONG THE 290-305K SURFACES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT WITH
MODEL PWAT PROGS SHOWING PWAT VALUES REACHING AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.10
INCHES BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS THEREFORE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS NOSE OF
STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASSENT NUDGES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF HIGHEST POPS SLIGHTLY WITH THE EARLY
EVENING UPDATE...MAINLY TO DELAY THE ONSET OF CATEGORICAL POPS
UNTIL AFTER 3-4 AM BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION DATA. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO A CORRIDOR ROUGHLY BOUNDED BY A MILLEN-REIDSVILLE-HARLEYVILLE-
NORTH CHARLESTON BOX THROUGH SUNRISE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S NORTH AND FAR WEST TO THE MID-UPPER 40S CENTRAL...SOUTH
AND COASTAL AREAS.

CHANGE SUMMARY FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
* MODIFIED HOURLY POPS TO BETTER FIX THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
  RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
  BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND A 50/50 BLEND OF GLAMP AND RAP
  DATA.
* SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO WIND DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS BASED ON SHORT
  TERM GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT THAT LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A SHALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND A STALLED FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE SE.
THAT ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FAST MOVING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND AN ELONGATED 125 KT UPPER JET THAT STRETCHES FROM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO TEXAS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT WON/T MATTER AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
BECOMES QUICKLY SATURATED INTO THE MID LEVELS. LIGHT RAINS WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...AND WILL
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DYNAMICS ALOFT. WE MIGHT FIND AN EVEN
SHARPER GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO PRECIP THAN WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING...BUT FIGURE ON NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS OVER MOST OF SC
AND IN MOST COMMUNITIES NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA. POPS THEN TAPER TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER MCINTOSH COUNTY. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BY LATE IN THE DAY OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE
FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE BY
NIGHTFALL. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...OUR QPF IS NO MORE
THAN ABOUT 1/10 TO 2/10 OF AN INCH. COOL AIR WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE
WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF I-16 IN
GA...WITH UPPER 50S TO MAYBE NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE
GULF STREAM. HE LACK OF FORCING UPSTAIRS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
RAIN TO HAVE ENDED...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP INVERSION OFF THE
DECK THAT WILL HOLD IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE. DEPENDING UPON HOW LONG THE BUILD
DOWN OF STRATUS TRANSPIRES WE COULD SEE SOME FOG CONCERNS. LIMITED
COOL ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A
DROP IN TEMPS...AT BEST ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SW LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
EAST/SE...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE. BUT AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS MORE SW IT PULLS THIS FEATURE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE COST AND ALSO OPENS UP THE GULF ALOFT FOR IT/S FEED OF
MOISTURE. WE DON/T HAVE TOO MUCH COVERAGE OF RAIN UNTIL THE ARRIVAL
OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWING MAINLY 20-30 POPS SUNDAY...BUT RAMPING
UP QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. WE
DON/T YET HAVE 100 POPS GIVEN SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES...BUT FIGURE
THAT EVERYONE WILL GET A STEADY RAIN DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. WITH PWATS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.4
TO 1.5 INCHES WE ANTICIPATE HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE 1/2 TO 3/4
INCH RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY...THEN FALL
ONLY ABOUT 6-10 DEGREES AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...WE/RE STILL STUCK WITHIN THE COOL AIR WEDGE REGIME WITH ANY
COASTAL WARM FRONT TO REMAIN OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH FORCING IN RESPONSE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE WARM
FRONT...THE TAIL OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND NEARBY UPPER
JET...PLUS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS. PWATS ACTUALLY MAKE A RUN
FOR ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...SO WE/RE STILL
SHOWING 80-90 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES. THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACHING ZERO. BUT CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY ADDING MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDDED ELEMENTS.
ADDITIONAL QPF OF 1/2 TO 2/3 INCHES. MY CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS NOT
THE GREATEST...BUT WITH COOL AIR DAMMING STILL IN PLACE WE
CONTINUE TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE ODDS FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE
AFTER AFTER 09Z. ONCE CEILINGS LOWER SATURDAY MORNING...MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KCHS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO LOW-END VFR AT KSAV. IFR VSBYS/CIGS CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WHERE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINS
OCCUR...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT NE ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY
SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. WINDY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MORE
UNIFORM N/NE WINDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. ACCORDINGLY...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 2-3 FT LATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
A STALLED OUT FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WHILE AN
INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN PLACE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
PINCHING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE NORTH OR NE WINDS AS
HIGH AS 15 OR 20 KT. THE RESULTING SEAS WILL PEAK AT 3 OR 4 FT. SO
FOR NOW WE DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY OR
DISSIPATES...BUT A SECOND WAVE OF WILL TAKE SHAPE IN SIMILAR
POSITION TO THE EAST/SE OF THE MARINE AREA. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS
TO THE SW WILL ATTEMPT TO DRAW THE SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT INLAND
WEDGE IS RELUCTANT TO RELAX ITS GRIP ACROSS THE SE...SO ANY VEERING
OF WINDS FROM THE NE AROUND TO THE SE OR SOUTH WILL TAKE SOME
TIME...IF AT ALL DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL AGAIN PEAK AT 15 OR
20 KT PENDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN...WITH SEAS AGAIN
NO MORE THAN 3 OR 4 FT. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL WARM FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY AND GIVES WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY
HOLD WINDS BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...BUT STEADY ISALLOBARIC
PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR MAYBE GALES. NOT YET SURE HOW THE
SITUATION WILL UNFOLD...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW END RISK OF SOME
STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THEN AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP THE MID AND UPPER
50S SHELF WATERS WITHIN A SOUTH AND SW FLOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG PRIOR TO
WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...
GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AT
LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 192316
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
616 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS ONGOING EARLY THIS EVENING SOUTH OFF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WITH SUPPORT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS. THESE FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST
TONIGHT WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS INITIATING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
IN THE VARIOUS MODEL MASS FIELDS WITH ONLY MODEST ISENTROPIC
ASSENT NOTED ALONG THE 290-305K SURFACES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT WITH
MODEL PWAT PROGS SHOWING PWAT VALUES REACHING AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.10
INCHES BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS THEREFORE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS NOSE OF
STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASSENT NUDGES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF HIGHEST POPS SLIGHTLY WITH THE EARLY
EVENING UPDATE...MAINLY TO DELAY THE ONSET OF CATEGORICAL POPS
UNTIL AFTER 3-4 AM BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION DATA. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO A CORRIDOR ROUGHLY BOUNDED BY A MILLEN-REIDSVILLE-HARLEYVILLE-
NORTH CHARLESTON BOX THROUGH SUNRISE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S NORTH AND FAR WEST TO THE MID-UPPER 40S CENTRAL...SOUTH
AND COASTAL AREAS.

CHANGE SUMMARY FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
* MODIFIED HOURLY POPS TO BETTER FIX THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
  RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
  BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND A 50/50 BLEND OF GLAMP AND RAP
  DATA.
* SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO WIND DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS BASED ON SHORT
  TERM GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT THAT LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A SHALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND A STALLED FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE SE.
THAT ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FAST MOVING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND AN ELONGATED 125 KT UPPER JET THAT STRETCHES FROM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO TEXAS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT WON/T MATTER AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
BECOMES QUICKLY SATURATED INTO THE MID LEVELS. LIGHT RAINS WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...AND WILL
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DYNAMICS ALOFT. WE MIGHT FIND AN EVEN
SHARPER GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO PRECIP THAN WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING...BUT FIGURE ON NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS OVER MOST OF SC
AND IN MOST COMMUNITIES NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA. POPS THEN TAPER TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER MCINTOSH COUNTY. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BY LATE IN THE DAY OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE
FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE BY
NIGHTFALL. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...OUR QPF IS NO MORE
THAN ABOUT 1/10 TO 2/10 OF AN INCH. COOL AIR WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE
WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF I-16 IN
GA...WITH UPPER 50S TO MAYBE NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE
GULF STREAM. HE LACK OF FORCING UPSTAIRS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
RAIN TO HAVE ENDED...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP INVERSION OFF THE
DECK THAT WILL HOLD IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE. DEPENDING UPON HOW LONG THE BUILD
DOWN OF STRATUS TRANSPIRES WE COULD SEE SOME FOG CONCERNS. LIMITED
COOL ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A
DROP IN TEMPS...AT BEST ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SW LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
EAST/SE...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE. BUT AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS MORE SW IT PULLS THIS FEATURE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE COST AND ALSO OPENS UP THE GULF ALOFT FOR IT/S FEED OF
MOISTURE. WE DON/T HAVE TOO MUCH COVERAGE OF RAIN UNTIL THE ARRIVAL
OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWING MAINLY 20-30 POPS SUNDAY...BUT RAMPING
UP QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. WE
DON/T YET HAVE 100 POPS GIVEN SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES...BUT FIGURE
THAT EVERYONE WILL GET A STEADY RAIN DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. WITH PWATS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.4
TO 1.5 INCHES WE ANTICIPATE HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE 1/2 TO 3/4
INCH RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY...THEN FALL
ONLY ABOUT 6-10 DEGREES AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...WE/RE STILL STUCK WITHIN THE COOL AIR WEDGE REGIME WITH ANY
COASTAL WARM FRONT TO REMAIN OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH FORCING IN RESPONSE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE WARM
FRONT...THE TAIL OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND NEARBY UPPER
JET...PLUS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS. PWATS ACTUALLY MAKE A RUN
FOR ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...SO WE/RE STILL
SHOWING 80-90 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES. THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACHING ZERO. BUT CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY ADDING MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDDED ELEMENTS.
ADDITIONAL QPF OF 1/2 TO 2/3 INCHES. MY CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS NOT
THE GREATEST...BUT WITH COOL AIR DAMMING STILL IN PLACE WE
CONTINUE TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE ODDS FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE
AFTER AFTER 09Z. ONCE CEILINGS LOWER SATURDAY MORNING...MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KCHS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO LOW-END VFR AT KSAV. IFR VSBYS/CIGS CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WHERE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINS
OCCUR...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT NE ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY
SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. WINDY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MORE
UNIFORM N/NE WINDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. ACCORDINGLY...
SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 2-3 FT LATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
A STALLED OUT FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WHILE AN
INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN PLACE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
PINCHING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE NORTH OR NE WINDS AS
HIGH AS 15 OR 20 KT. THE RESULTING SEAS WILL PEAK AT 3 OR 4 FT. SO
FOR NOW WE DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY OR
DISSIPATES...BUT A SECOND WAVE OF WILL TAKE SHAPE IN SIMILAR
POSITION TO THE EAST/SE OF THE MARINE AREA. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS
TO THE SW WILL ATTEMPT TO DRAW THE SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT INLAND
WEDGE IS RELUCTANT TO RELAX ITS GRIP ACROSS THE SE...SO ANY VEERING
OF WINDS FROM THE NE AROUND TO THE SE OR SOUTH WILL TAKE SOME
TIME...IF AT ALL DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL AGAIN PEAK AT 15 OR
20 KT PENDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN...WITH SEAS AGAIN
NO MORE THAN 3 OR 4 FT. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL WARM FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY AND GIVES WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY
HOLD WINDS BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...BUT STEADY ISALLOBARIC
PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR MAYBE GALES. NOT YET SURE HOW THE
SITUATION WILL UNFOLD...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW END RISK OF SOME
STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THEN AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP THE MID AND UPPER
50S SHELF WATERS WITHIN A SOUTH AND SW FLOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG PRIOR TO
WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO TIDES...
GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS AT
LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 192052
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
352 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SUPPORT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY. THEN...CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE/THICKEN AS UPSTREAM MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL ADVANCE E/NE AND WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RAIN SUPPORTED BY
FOCUSED/DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS DEPICTED BY PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1 INCH...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM W/SW TO E/NE. PRIMARY
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CENTERS ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE ONSET
OF THE RAIN. DRY AIR IN PLACE COULD INITIALLY DELAY THE ONSET OF
RAIN UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT RAIN COULD INITIALLY SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16 AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BEFORE SPREADING
INTO AREAS FARTHER NORTH. GIVEN HIGH RES GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM
RADAR TRENDS INDICATED THE EARLIEST ONSET OF HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY
FOR THESE SOUTHERN AREAS LATE THIS EVENING. EVENTUALLY...WIDESPREAD
RAIN/CATEGORICAL POPS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BEST COVERAGE OF
RAIN COULD SHIFT FARTHER NORTH...THUS OVERNIGHT POPS ARE GRADUATED
FROM CATEGORICAL CENTRAL/NORTH TO CHANCE FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...HIGHER
POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED EVEN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN COULD FALL IN MANY AREAS...WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE NORTH AND LESSER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT THAT LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A SHALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND A STALLED FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE SE.
THAT ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FAST MOVING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND AN ELONGATED 125 KT UPPER JET THAT STRETCHES FROM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO TEXAS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT WON/T MATTER AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
BECOMES QUICKLY SATURATED INTO THE MID LEVELS. LIGHT RAINS WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...AND WILL
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DYNAMICS ALOFT. WE MIGHT FIND AN EVEN
SHARPER GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO PRECIP THAN WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING...BUT FIGURE ON NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS OVER MOST OF SC
AND IN MOST COMMUNITIES NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA. POPS THEN TAPER TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER MCINTOSH COUNTY. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BY LATE IN THE DAY OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE
FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE BY
NIGHTFALL. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...OUR QPF IS NO MORE
THAN ABOUT 1/10 TO 2/10 OF AN INCH. COOL AIR WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE
WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF I-16 IN
GA...WITH UPPER 50S TO MAYBE NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE
GULF STREAM. HE LACK OF FORCING UPSTAIRS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
RAIN TO HAVE ENDED...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP INVERSION OFF THE
DECK THAT WILL HOLD IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE. DEPENDING UPON HOW LONG THE BUILD
DOWN OF STRATUS TRANSPIRES WE COULD SEE SOME FOG CONCERNS. LIMITED
COOL ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A
DROP IN TEMPS...AT BEST ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SW LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
EAST/SE...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE. BUT AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS MORE SW IT PULLS THIS FEATURE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE COST AND ALSO OPENS UP THE GULF ALOFT FOR IT/S FEED OF
MOISTURE. WE DON/T HAVE TOO MUCH COVERAGE OF RAIN UNTIL THE ARRIVAL
OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWING MAINLY 20-30 POPS SUNDAY...BUT RAMPING
UP QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. WE
DON/T YET HAVE 100 POPS GIVEN SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES...BUT FIGURE
THAT EVERYONE WILL GET A STEADY RAIN DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. WITH PWATS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.4
TO 1.5 INCHES WE ANTICIPATE HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE 1/2 TO 3/4
INCH RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY...THEN FALL
ONLY ABOUT 6-10 DEGREES AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...WE/RE STILL STUCK WITHIN THE COOL AIR WEDGE REGIME WITH ANY
COASTAL WARM FRONT TO REMAIN OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH FORCING IN RESPONSE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE WARM
FRONT...THE TAIL OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND NEARBY UPPER
JET...PLUS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS. PWATS ACTUALLY MAKE A RUN
FOR ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...SO WE/RE STILL
SHOWING 80-90 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES. THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACHING ZERO. BUT CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY ADDING MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDDED ELEMENTS.
ADDITIONAL QPF OF 1/2 TO 2/3 INCHES. MY CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS ISN/T
THE GREATEST...BUT WITH COOL AIR DAMMING STILL IN PLACE WE CONTINUE
TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE ODDS FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE
AFTER 06Z- 09Z. ONCE CEILINGS LOWER SATURDAY MORNING...MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD...AND AT LEAST OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS/MVFR VISIBILITIES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT NE ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY
SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. WINDY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR
LESS INCLUDING AN EARLY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND SEAS AROUND 1
FOOT INTO THIS EVENING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO MORE UNIFORM N/NE WINDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT OVERNIGHT. ACCORDINGLY...SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 2-3 FT
LATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
A STALLED OUT FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WHILE AN
INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN PLACE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
PINCHING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE NORTH OR NE WINDS AS
HIGH AS 15 OR 20 KT. THE RESULTING SEAS WILL PEAK AT 3 OR 4 FT. SO
FOR NOW WE DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY OR
DISSIPATES...BUT A SECOND WAVE OF WILL TAKE SHAPE IN SIMILAR
POSITION TO THE EAST/SE OF THE MARINE AREA. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS
TO THE SW WILL ATTEMPT TO DRAW THE SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT INLAND
WEDGE IS RELUCTANT TO RELAX ITS GRIP ACROSS THE SE...SO ANY VEERING
OF WINDS FROM THE NE AROUND TO THE SE OR SOUTH WILL TAKE SOME
TIME...IF AT ALL DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL AGAIN PEAK AT 15 OR
20 KT PENDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN...WITH SEAS AGAIN
NO MORE THAN 3 OR 4 FT. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL WARM FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY AND GIVES WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY
HOLD WINDS BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...BUT STEADY ISALLOBARIC
PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR MAYBE GALES. NOT YET SURE HOW THE
SITUATION WILL UNFOLD...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW END RISK OF SOME
STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THEN AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP THE MID AND UPPER
50S SHELF WATERS WITHIN A SOUTH AND SW FLOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG PRIOR TO
WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO
TIDES...GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS
AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...33/SPR
MARINE...33/SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...33







000
FXUS62 KCHS 192052
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
352 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SUPPORT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY. THEN...CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE/THICKEN AS UPSTREAM MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL ADVANCE E/NE AND WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RAIN SUPPORTED BY
FOCUSED/DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS DEPICTED BY PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1 INCH...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM W/SW TO E/NE. PRIMARY
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CENTERS ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE ONSET
OF THE RAIN. DRY AIR IN PLACE COULD INITIALLY DELAY THE ONSET OF
RAIN UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT RAIN COULD INITIALLY SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16 AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BEFORE SPREADING
INTO AREAS FARTHER NORTH. GIVEN HIGH RES GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM
RADAR TRENDS INDICATED THE EARLIEST ONSET OF HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY
FOR THESE SOUTHERN AREAS LATE THIS EVENING. EVENTUALLY...WIDESPREAD
RAIN/CATEGORICAL POPS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BEST COVERAGE OF
RAIN COULD SHIFT FARTHER NORTH...THUS OVERNIGHT POPS ARE GRADUATED
FROM CATEGORICAL CENTRAL/NORTH TO CHANCE FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...HIGHER
POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED EVEN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN COULD FALL IN MANY AREAS...WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE NORTH AND LESSER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT THAT LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A SHALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND A STALLED FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE SE.
THAT ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FAST MOVING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND AN ELONGATED 125 KT UPPER JET THAT STRETCHES FROM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO TEXAS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT WON/T MATTER AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
BECOMES QUICKLY SATURATED INTO THE MID LEVELS. LIGHT RAINS WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK...AND WILL
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DYNAMICS ALOFT. WE MIGHT FIND AN EVEN
SHARPER GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO PRECIP THAN WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING...BUT FIGURE ON NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS OVER MOST OF SC
AND IN MOST COMMUNITIES NORTH OF I-16 IN SE GA. POPS THEN TAPER TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER MCINTOSH COUNTY. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BY LATE IN THE DAY OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE
FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE BY
NIGHTFALL. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...OUR QPF IS NO MORE
THAN ABOUT 1/10 TO 2/10 OF AN INCH. COOL AIR WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE
WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF I-16 IN
GA...WITH UPPER 50S TO MAYBE NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE
GULF STREAM. HE LACK OF FORCING UPSTAIRS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
RAIN TO HAVE ENDED...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP INVERSION OFF THE
DECK THAT WILL HOLD IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE. DEPENDING UPON HOW LONG THE BUILD
DOWN OF STRATUS TRANSPIRES WE COULD SEE SOME FOG CONCERNS. LIMITED
COOL ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A
DROP IN TEMPS...AT BEST ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SW LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR
EAST/SE...WHILE THE INLAND WEDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE. BUT AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS MORE SW IT PULLS THIS FEATURE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE COST AND ALSO OPENS UP THE GULF ALOFT FOR IT/S FEED OF
MOISTURE. WE DON/T HAVE TOO MUCH COVERAGE OF RAIN UNTIL THE ARRIVAL
OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWING MAINLY 20-30 POPS SUNDAY...BUT RAMPING
UP QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. WE
DON/T YET HAVE 100 POPS GIVEN SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES...BUT FIGURE
THAT EVERYONE WILL GET A STEADY RAIN DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. WITH PWATS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.4
TO 1.5 INCHES WE ANTICIPATE HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE 1/2 TO 3/4
INCH RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY...THEN FALL
ONLY ABOUT 6-10 DEGREES AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...WE/RE STILL STUCK WITHIN THE COOL AIR WEDGE REGIME WITH ANY
COASTAL WARM FRONT TO REMAIN OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH FORCING IN RESPONSE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE WARM
FRONT...THE TAIL OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND NEARBY UPPER
JET...PLUS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS. PWATS ACTUALLY MAKE A RUN
FOR ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...SO WE/RE STILL
SHOWING 80-90 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES. THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACHING ZERO. BUT CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY ADDING MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDDED ELEMENTS.
ADDITIONAL QPF OF 1/2 TO 2/3 INCHES. MY CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS ISN/T
THE GREATEST...BUT WITH COOL AIR DAMMING STILL IN PLACE WE CONTINUE
TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE ODDS FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE
AFTER 06Z- 09Z. ONCE CEILINGS LOWER SATURDAY MORNING...MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD...AND AT LEAST OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS/MVFR VISIBILITIES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT NE ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY
SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. WINDY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR
LESS INCLUDING AN EARLY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND SEAS AROUND 1
FOOT INTO THIS EVENING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO MORE UNIFORM N/NE WINDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT OVERNIGHT. ACCORDINGLY...SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 2-3 FT
LATE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
A STALLED OUT FRONT TO THE EAST/SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WHILE AN
INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN PLACE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
PINCHING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE NORTH OR NE WINDS AS
HIGH AS 15 OR 20 KT. THE RESULTING SEAS WILL PEAK AT 3 OR 4 FT. SO
FOR NOW WE DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY OR
DISSIPATES...BUT A SECOND WAVE OF WILL TAKE SHAPE IN SIMILAR
POSITION TO THE EAST/SE OF THE MARINE AREA. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS
TO THE SW WILL ATTEMPT TO DRAW THE SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT INLAND
WEDGE IS RELUCTANT TO RELAX ITS GRIP ACROSS THE SE...SO ANY VEERING
OF WINDS FROM THE NE AROUND TO THE SE OR SOUTH WILL TAKE SOME
TIME...IF AT ALL DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL AGAIN PEAK AT 15 OR
20 KT PENDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN...WITH SEAS AGAIN
NO MORE THAN 3 OR 4 FT. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL WARM FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY AND GIVES WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY
HOLD WINDS BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...BUT STEADY ISALLOBARIC
PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR MAYBE GALES. NOT YET SURE HOW THE
SITUATION WILL UNFOLD...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW END RISK OF SOME
STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

SEA FOG...MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD EQUATE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. THEN AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES ATOP THE MID AND UPPER
50S SHELF WATERS WITHIN A SOUTH AND SW FLOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG PRIOR TO
WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO SCOUR IT OUT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO
TIDES...GIVEN THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS
AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...33/SPR
MARINE...33/SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...33






000
FXUS62 KCAE 191955
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IT IS
FORECAST TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT.

CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE. ISENTROPIC
LIFTING BEGINS IN EARNEST AFTER AROUND 08Z AND CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
AREA AROUND 07Z-09Z. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE AN HOUR OR SO OF
MOISTENING IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE RAIN
REACHES THE SURFACE. DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE GIVING ONLY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH 12Z WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AS TIMING OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION USUALLY ARRIVES EARLIER THAN FORECAST BY
THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXPECTED. DESPITE SOME TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 30S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM/GFS/ENSEMBLES SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAINLY AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...NEAR BEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR
SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND COOL NE SURFACE FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM AND HAVE STAYED WITH
CURRENT TRENDS OF BELOW CONSENSUS.

THE MOISTURE REALLY THINS OUT AS THE S/W EXITS THE REGION TO THE
EAST. BELIEVE THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
POPS WERE NEAR 10 PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE BY LATE
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT LATE IN THE DAY. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH SUNDAY BECAUSE OF
EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL TO
LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LI
FIELD SHOWS DEPARTING WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA. LIS BETWEEN -1 AND -3
AND STRONG SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY NEED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GOOD
CAA AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THICKENING CLOUDS WHICH WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFTING BECOMES STRONGER. LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 07Z AGS/DNL AND
09Z CAE/CUB/OGB WITH LOWERING VSBYS IN RAIN AT AGS/DNL/OGB AFTER
12Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF
COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 191955
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IT IS
FORECAST TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT.

CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE. ISENTROPIC
LIFTING BEGINS IN EARNEST AFTER AROUND 08Z AND CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
AREA AROUND 07Z-09Z. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE AN HOUR OR SO OF
MOISTENING IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE RAIN
REACHES THE SURFACE. DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE GIVING ONLY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH 12Z WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AS TIMING OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION USUALLY ARRIVES EARLIER THAN FORECAST BY
THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXPECTED. DESPITE SOME TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 30S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM/GFS/ENSEMBLES SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAINLY AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...NEAR BEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR
SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND COOL NE SURFACE FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM AND HAVE STAYED WITH
CURRENT TRENDS OF BELOW CONSENSUS.

THE MOISTURE REALLY THINS OUT AS THE S/W EXITS THE REGION TO THE
EAST. BELIEVE THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
POPS WERE NEAR 10 PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE BY LATE
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT LATE IN THE DAY. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH SUNDAY BECAUSE OF
EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL TO
LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LI
FIELD SHOWS DEPARTING WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA. LIS BETWEEN -1 AND -3
AND STRONG SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY NEED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GOOD
CAA AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THICKENING CLOUDS WHICH WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFTING BECOMES STRONGER. LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 07Z AGS/DNL AND
09Z CAE/CUB/OGB WITH LOWERING VSBYS IN RAIN AT AGS/DNL/OGB AFTER
12Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF
COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 191955
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IT IS
FORECAST TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT.

CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE. ISENTROPIC
LIFTING BEGINS IN EARNEST AFTER AROUND 08Z AND CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
AREA AROUND 07Z-09Z. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE AN HOUR OR SO OF
MOISTENING IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE RAIN
REACHES THE SURFACE. DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE GIVING ONLY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH 12Z WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AS TIMING OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION USUALLY ARRIVES EARLIER THAN FORECAST BY
THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXPECTED. DESPITE SOME TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 30S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM/GFS/ENSEMBLES SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAINLY AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...NEAR BEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR
SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND COOL NE SURFACE FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM AND HAVE STAYED WITH
CURRENT TRENDS OF BELOW CONSENSUS.

THE MOISTURE REALLY THINS OUT AS THE S/W EXITS THE REGION TO THE
EAST. BELIEVE THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
POPS WERE NEAR 10 PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE BY LATE
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT LATE IN THE DAY. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH SUNDAY BECAUSE OF
EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL TO
LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LI
FIELD SHOWS DEPARTING WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA. LIS BETWEEN -1 AND -3
AND STRONG SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY NEED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GOOD
CAA AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THICKENING CLOUDS WHICH WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFTING BECOMES STRONGER. LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 07Z AGS/DNL AND
09Z CAE/CUB/OGB WITH LOWERING VSBYS IN RAIN AT AGS/DNL/OGB AFTER
12Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF
COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 191955
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IT IS
FORECAST TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT.

CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE. ISENTROPIC
LIFTING BEGINS IN EARNEST AFTER AROUND 08Z AND CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
AREA AROUND 07Z-09Z. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE AN HOUR OR SO OF
MOISTENING IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE RAIN
REACHES THE SURFACE. DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE GIVING ONLY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH 12Z WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AS TIMING OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION USUALLY ARRIVES EARLIER THAN FORECAST BY
THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXPECTED. DESPITE SOME TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 30S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM/GFS/ENSEMBLES SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAINLY AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...NEAR BEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR
SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND COOL NE SURFACE FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM AND HAVE STAYED WITH
CURRENT TRENDS OF BELOW CONSENSUS.

THE MOISTURE REALLY THINS OUT AS THE S/W EXITS THE REGION TO THE
EAST. BELIEVE THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
POPS WERE NEAR 10 PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE BY LATE
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT LATE IN THE DAY. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH SUNDAY BECAUSE OF
EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL TO
LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LI
FIELD SHOWS DEPARTING WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA. LIS BETWEEN -1 AND -3
AND STRONG SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY NEED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GOOD
CAA AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THICKENING CLOUDS WHICH WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFTING BECOMES STRONGER. LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 07Z AGS/DNL AND
09Z CAE/CUB/OGB WITH LOWERING VSBYS IN RAIN AT AGS/DNL/OGB AFTER
12Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF
COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 191955
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IT IS
FORECAST TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT.

CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE. ISENTROPIC
LIFTING BEGINS IN EARNEST AFTER AROUND 08Z AND CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
AREA AROUND 07Z-09Z. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE AN HOUR OR SO OF
MOISTENING IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE RAIN
REACHES THE SURFACE. DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE GIVING ONLY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH 12Z WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AS TIMING OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION USUALLY ARRIVES EARLIER THAN FORECAST BY
THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXPECTED. DESPITE SOME TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 30S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM/GFS/ENSEMBLES SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAINLY AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...NEAR BEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR
SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND COOL NE SURFACE FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM AND HAVE STAYED WITH
CURRENT TRENDS OF BELOW CONSENSUS.

THE MOISTURE REALLY THINS OUT AS THE S/W EXITS THE REGION TO THE
EAST. BELIEVE THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
POPS WERE NEAR 10 PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE BY LATE
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT LATE IN THE DAY. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH SUNDAY BECAUSE OF
EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL TO
LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LI
FIELD SHOWS DEPARTING WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA. LIS BETWEEN -1 AND -3
AND STRONG SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY NEED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GOOD
CAA AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THICKENING CLOUDS WHICH WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFTING BECOMES STRONGER. LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 07Z AGS/DNL AND
09Z CAE/CUB/OGB WITH LOWERING VSBYS IN RAIN AT AGS/DNL/OGB AFTER
12Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF
COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 191955
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IT IS
FORECAST TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT.

CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE. ISENTROPIC
LIFTING BEGINS IN EARNEST AFTER AROUND 08Z AND CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
AREA AROUND 07Z-09Z. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE AN HOUR OR SO OF
MOISTENING IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE RAIN
REACHES THE SURFACE. DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE GIVING ONLY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH 12Z WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AS TIMING OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION USUALLY ARRIVES EARLIER THAN FORECAST BY
THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXPECTED. DESPITE SOME TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 30S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM/GFS/ENSEMBLES SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAINLY AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...NEAR BEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR
SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND COOL NE SURFACE FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM AND HAVE STAYED WITH
CURRENT TRENDS OF BELOW CONSENSUS.

THE MOISTURE REALLY THINS OUT AS THE S/W EXITS THE REGION TO THE
EAST. BELIEVE THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
POPS WERE NEAR 10 PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE BY LATE
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT LATE IN THE DAY. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH SUNDAY BECAUSE OF
EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL TO
LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LI
FIELD SHOWS DEPARTING WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA. LIS BETWEEN -1 AND -3
AND STRONG SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY NEED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GOOD
CAA AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THICKENING CLOUDS WHICH WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFTING BECOMES STRONGER. LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 07Z AGS/DNL AND
09Z CAE/CUB/OGB WITH LOWERING VSBYS IN RAIN AT AGS/DNL/OGB AFTER
12Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF
COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KFFC 191929
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
229 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CIRRUS HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER PUSHING IN. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO INCREASING IN ADVANCE
OF DEEPENING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BUT WITH THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT A SURFACE LOW
IS DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST GULF WITH MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...THOUGH 12Z MODELS DID INCREASE THE TOTALS
JUST A TAD...STILL UNDER 0.5 INCHES EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME AREAS
/ESPECIALLY NORTH GEORGIA/ HARDLY SEEING ANY. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WE
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WHICH MIGHT SERVE TO CUT OF DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION EVEN MORE. HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF CATEGORICAL POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA. PRETTY MUCH 0 INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO CONTINUED ALL RAIN WORDING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE
ABOVE NORMAL...WILL BE HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME BRIEF FLURRIES ESPECIALLY AT ONSET ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BUT
OVERALL JUST A COLD LIGHT RAIN.

AS THE SHORTWAVE DAMPS ON SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE HIGH
BEGINS DAMMING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE SHORT TERM AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE PULLS NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED.

WENT WITH A GENERAL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES BUT ESPECIALLY HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
PRECIPITATION AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES EVEN
LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AS IT IS...EXPECT HIGHS ABOUT NORMAL
AND LOWS HELD SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE.

TDP

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR SOMETHING OTHER THAN RAIN LOOKS TO BE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OVER FAR N GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM... WITH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER COOL WEDGE SETTING UP ON SUNDAY AND GETTING OVERRUN WITH A
MOIST MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS GETS ENHANCED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF MAINLY RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO HOLD STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE STATE AND WARRANT A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...
INSTABILITIES AND ANY THUNDER THREAT APPEARS TO REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THIS CHANGES TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS AGREE ON A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENING
OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY... THEN KICKING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT... ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING 200-600 MUCAPE NOSING UP ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COUPLED
WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL
WARRANT ADDING MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT SUSPECT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED UPPER FORCING. STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT AS INSTABILITIES AND DEEP
SHEAR REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST FOR NOW... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THIS POTENTIAL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA
WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITIES AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...  WRAP AROUND MOISTURE... STRONG UPPER FORCING AND
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING... BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH AIR AND GROUND TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE SNOW SHOWERS POTENTIAL RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY MORNING... BUT WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. OTHERWISE... EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS TO
DOMINATE MOSTLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS WILL BEGIN DROPPING
GRADUALLY TONIGHT WITH LOW VFR EXPECTED BY JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
-RA MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL...WITH CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 12Z. -RA MOVES OUT BEFORE NOON FOR THE
NORTHERN TAFS...CLOSER TO NOON FOR MCN/CSG...AND MVFR CIGS LINGER
JUST ABOUT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL BUT ATL. NW WINDS
EARLY SHIFTING TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT /CURRENT TIMING IS 05Z/ AND
CONTINUING TO VEER TOWARD E BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM-HIGH ON TIMING OF ALL ELEMENTS...HIGH ON OCCURRENCE.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          41  51  38  51 /  80  70  20  30
ATLANTA         42  53  42  52 /  80  70  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     37  49  36  50 /  80  50  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    37  53  37  52 /  80  60  10  20
COLUMBUS        44  55  45  54 / 100  90  20  30
GAINESVILLE     40  50  38  50 /  80  60  20  30
MACON           44  55  43  54 /  90  90  20  30
ROME            36  52  35  53 /  80  50  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  39  54  37  52 /  90  80  20  30
VIDALIA         47  56  45  56 /  80  80  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...TDP



000
FXUS62 KFFC 191929
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
229 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CIRRUS HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER PUSHING IN. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO INCREASING IN ADVANCE
OF DEEPENING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BUT WITH THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT A SURFACE LOW
IS DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST GULF WITH MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...THOUGH 12Z MODELS DID INCREASE THE TOTALS
JUST A TAD...STILL UNDER 0.5 INCHES EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME AREAS
/ESPECIALLY NORTH GEORGIA/ HARDLY SEEING ANY. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WE
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WHICH MIGHT SERVE TO CUT OF DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION EVEN MORE. HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF CATEGORICAL POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA. PRETTY MUCH 0 INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO CONTINUED ALL RAIN WORDING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE
ABOVE NORMAL...WILL BE HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME BRIEF FLURRIES ESPECIALLY AT ONSET ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BUT
OVERALL JUST A COLD LIGHT RAIN.

AS THE SHORTWAVE DAMPS ON SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE HIGH
BEGINS DAMMING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE SHORT TERM AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE PULLS NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED.

WENT WITH A GENERAL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES BUT ESPECIALLY HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
PRECIPITATION AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES EVEN
LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AS IT IS...EXPECT HIGHS ABOUT NORMAL
AND LOWS HELD SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE.

TDP

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR SOMETHING OTHER THAN RAIN LOOKS TO BE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OVER FAR N GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM... WITH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER COOL WEDGE SETTING UP ON SUNDAY AND GETTING OVERRUN WITH A
MOIST MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS GETS ENHANCED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF MAINLY RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO HOLD STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE STATE AND WARRANT A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...
INSTABILITIES AND ANY THUNDER THREAT APPEARS TO REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THIS CHANGES TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS AGREE ON A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENING
OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY... THEN KICKING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT... ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING 200-600 MUCAPE NOSING UP ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COUPLED
WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL
WARRANT ADDING MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT SUSPECT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED UPPER FORCING. STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT AS INSTABILITIES AND DEEP
SHEAR REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST FOR NOW... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THIS POTENTIAL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA
WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITIES AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...  WRAP AROUND MOISTURE... STRONG UPPER FORCING AND
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING... BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH AIR AND GROUND TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE SNOW SHOWERS POTENTIAL RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY MORNING... BUT WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. OTHERWISE... EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS TO
DOMINATE MOSTLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS WILL BEGIN DROPPING
GRADUALLY TONIGHT WITH LOW VFR EXPECTED BY JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
-RA MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL...WITH CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 12Z. -RA MOVES OUT BEFORE NOON FOR THE
NORTHERN TAFS...CLOSER TO NOON FOR MCN/CSG...AND MVFR CIGS LINGER
JUST ABOUT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL BUT ATL. NW WINDS
EARLY SHIFTING TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT /CURRENT TIMING IS 05Z/ AND
CONTINUING TO VEER TOWARD E BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM-HIGH ON TIMING OF ALL ELEMENTS...HIGH ON OCCURRENCE.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          41  51  38  51 /  80  70  20  30
ATLANTA         42  53  42  52 /  80  70  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     37  49  36  50 /  80  50  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    37  53  37  52 /  80  60  10  20
COLUMBUS        44  55  45  54 / 100  90  20  30
GAINESVILLE     40  50  38  50 /  80  60  20  30
MACON           44  55  43  54 /  90  90  20  30
ROME            36  52  35  53 /  80  50  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  39  54  37  52 /  90  80  20  30
VIDALIA         47  56  45  56 /  80  80  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KFFC 191929
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
229 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CIRRUS HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER PUSHING IN. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO INCREASING IN ADVANCE
OF DEEPENING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BUT WITH THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT A SURFACE LOW
IS DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST GULF WITH MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...THOUGH 12Z MODELS DID INCREASE THE TOTALS
JUST A TAD...STILL UNDER 0.5 INCHES EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME AREAS
/ESPECIALLY NORTH GEORGIA/ HARDLY SEEING ANY. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WE
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WHICH MIGHT SERVE TO CUT OF DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION EVEN MORE. HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF CATEGORICAL POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA. PRETTY MUCH 0 INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO CONTINUED ALL RAIN WORDING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE
ABOVE NORMAL...WILL BE HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME BRIEF FLURRIES ESPECIALLY AT ONSET ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BUT
OVERALL JUST A COLD LIGHT RAIN.

AS THE SHORTWAVE DAMPS ON SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE HIGH
BEGINS DAMMING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE SHORT TERM AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE PULLS NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED.

WENT WITH A GENERAL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES BUT ESPECIALLY HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
PRECIPITATION AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES EVEN
LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AS IT IS...EXPECT HIGHS ABOUT NORMAL
AND LOWS HELD SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE.

TDP

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR SOMETHING OTHER THAN RAIN LOOKS TO BE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OVER FAR N GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM... WITH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER COOL WEDGE SETTING UP ON SUNDAY AND GETTING OVERRUN WITH A
MOIST MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS GETS ENHANCED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF MAINLY RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO HOLD STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE STATE AND WARRANT A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...
INSTABILITIES AND ANY THUNDER THREAT APPEARS TO REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THIS CHANGES TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS AGREE ON A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENING
OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY... THEN KICKING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT... ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING 200-600 MUCAPE NOSING UP ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COUPLED
WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL
WARRANT ADDING MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT SUSPECT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED UPPER FORCING. STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT AS INSTABILITIES AND DEEP
SHEAR REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST FOR NOW... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THIS POTENTIAL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA
WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITIES AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...  WRAP AROUND MOISTURE... STRONG UPPER FORCING AND
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING... BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH AIR AND GROUND TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE SNOW SHOWERS POTENTIAL RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY MORNING... BUT WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. OTHERWISE... EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS TO
DOMINATE MOSTLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS WILL BEGIN DROPPING
GRADUALLY TONIGHT WITH LOW VFR EXPECTED BY JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
-RA MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL...WITH CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 12Z. -RA MOVES OUT BEFORE NOON FOR THE
NORTHERN TAFS...CLOSER TO NOON FOR MCN/CSG...AND MVFR CIGS LINGER
JUST ABOUT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL BUT ATL. NW WINDS
EARLY SHIFTING TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT /CURRENT TIMING IS 05Z/ AND
CONTINUING TO VEER TOWARD E BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM-HIGH ON TIMING OF ALL ELEMENTS...HIGH ON OCCURRENCE.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          41  51  38  51 /  80  70  20  30
ATLANTA         42  53  42  52 /  80  70  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     37  49  36  50 /  80  50  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    37  53  37  52 /  80  60  10  20
COLUMBUS        44  55  45  54 / 100  90  20  30
GAINESVILLE     40  50  38  50 /  80  60  20  30
MACON           44  55  43  54 /  90  90  20  30
ROME            36  52  35  53 /  80  50  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  39  54  37  52 /  90  80  20  30
VIDALIA         47  56  45  56 /  80  80  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...TDP



000
FXUS62 KCAE 191839
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
139 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IT IS
FORECAST TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT.

CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE. ISENTROPIC
LIFTING BEGINS IN EARNEST AFTER AROUND 08Z AND CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
AREA AROUND 07Z-09Z. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE AN HOUR OR SO OF
MOISTENING IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE RAIN
REACHES THE SURFACE. DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE GIVING ONLY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH 12Z WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AS TIMING OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION USUALLY ARRIVES EARLIER THAN FORECAST BY
THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXPECTED. DESPITE SOME TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 30S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY
AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM.

THE MODELS SHOW HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BELIEVE
THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE NEAR 10
PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THICKENING CLOUDS WHICH WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFTING BECOMES STRONGER. LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 07Z AGS/DNL AND
09Z CAE/CUB/OGB WITH LOWERING VSBYS IN RAIN AT AGS/DNL/OGB AFTER
12Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF
COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 191839
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
139 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IT IS
FORECAST TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT.

CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.50 INCHES BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE. ISENTROPIC
LIFTING BEGINS IN EARNEST AFTER AROUND 08Z AND CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
AREA AROUND 07Z-09Z. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE AN HOUR OR SO OF
MOISTENING IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE RAIN
REACHES THE SURFACE. DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE GIVING ONLY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH 12Z WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AS TIMING OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION USUALLY ARRIVES EARLIER THAN FORECAST BY
THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXPECTED. DESPITE SOME TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 30S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY
AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM.

THE MODELS SHOW HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BELIEVE
THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE NEAR 10
PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THICKENING CLOUDS WHICH WILL LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFTING BECOMES STRONGER. LIGHT RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 07Z AGS/DNL AND
09Z CAE/CUB/OGB WITH LOWERING VSBYS IN RAIN AT AGS/DNL/OGB AFTER
12Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF
COAST SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 191745
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1245 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SHIFT OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH DRYER
CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING COVERAGE TREND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THE
AREA. THUS FAR...CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED TEMPERATURE RECOVERY...BUT A
GENERAL INCREASE IN INSOLATION SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PUSH
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FAST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST INTRODUCING POPS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS
MAINTAIN SIMILAR QPF TIMING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS... A SOMEWHAT QUICKER
PROGRESSION OF RAINS IS POSSIBLE AND WE HAD TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FROM OUR PREVIOUS THINKING GIVEN CONSENSUS OF CONDENSATION
DEFICIT PROGS AND INITIAL ARRIVAL OF UPPER FORCING. SPRINKLES AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAINS MAY BREAK OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS IN A FEW AREAS
TO THE WEST OF I-95 BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE RAINS EXPAND AFTER
06Z WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AS SUNRISE ARRIVES SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
QPF SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY MOISTENING
UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HELP TO
ANCHOR A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LOWS 40-45 NORTH
AND MID 40S S OF I-16.

SATURDAY...A WET DAY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE FORCING
PERSISTS FROM A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG
UPPER LVL JET POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A QUICKLY PACED EVENT THAT
OFFERS LESS PRECIP ACCUMULATION...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW TENTHS OF
INCH OVER MOST AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER WITHIN THE WEDGE AND UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID/UPPER 50S
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS REACH 60 IN OUR
MOST SOUTHERN ZONES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING/DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S...COOLEST OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY...BUT MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE INDICATED 20-30 POPS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN INCREASING UPWARDS
TO AROUND 70 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER
OR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK IN THE LOWER
60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S
ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE
INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z. AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z-09Z...BUT GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE OPTED TO DELAY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
UNTIL AFTER 12Z. ONCE CEILINGS LOWER SATURDAY MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...AND AT
LEAST OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS/MVFR VISIBILITIES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN N/NE WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 1
FOOT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN...A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KT OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS BUILDING TO 2-3 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS. A
GALE WATCH COULD BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-8 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR






000
FXUS62 KCHS 191745
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1245 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SHIFT OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH DRYER
CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING COVERAGE TREND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THE
AREA. THUS FAR...CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED TEMPERATURE RECOVERY...BUT A
GENERAL INCREASE IN INSOLATION SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PUSH
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FAST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST INTRODUCING POPS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS
MAINTAIN SIMILAR QPF TIMING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS... A SOMEWHAT QUICKER
PROGRESSION OF RAINS IS POSSIBLE AND WE HAD TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FROM OUR PREVIOUS THINKING GIVEN CONSENSUS OF CONDENSATION
DEFICIT PROGS AND INITIAL ARRIVAL OF UPPER FORCING. SPRINKLES AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAINS MAY BREAK OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS IN A FEW AREAS
TO THE WEST OF I-95 BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE RAINS EXPAND AFTER
06Z WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AS SUNRISE ARRIVES SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
QPF SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY MOISTENING
UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HELP TO
ANCHOR A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LOWS 40-45 NORTH
AND MID 40S S OF I-16.

SATURDAY...A WET DAY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE FORCING
PERSISTS FROM A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG
UPPER LVL JET POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A QUICKLY PACED EVENT THAT
OFFERS LESS PRECIP ACCUMULATION...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW TENTHS OF
INCH OVER MOST AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER WITHIN THE WEDGE AND UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID/UPPER 50S
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS REACH 60 IN OUR
MOST SOUTHERN ZONES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING/DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S...COOLEST OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY...BUT MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE INDICATED 20-30 POPS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN INCREASING UPWARDS
TO AROUND 70 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER
OR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK IN THE LOWER
60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S
ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE
INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z. AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z-09Z...BUT GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE OPTED TO DELAY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
UNTIL AFTER 12Z. ONCE CEILINGS LOWER SATURDAY MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...AND AT
LEAST OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS/MVFR VISIBILITIES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN N/NE WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 1
FOOT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN...A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KT OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS BUILDING TO 2-3 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS. A
GALE WATCH COULD BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-8 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR






000
FXUS62 KCHS 191745
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1245 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SHIFT OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH DRYER
CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING COVERAGE TREND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THE
AREA. THUS FAR...CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED TEMPERATURE RECOVERY...BUT A
GENERAL INCREASE IN INSOLATION SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PUSH
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FAST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST INTRODUCING POPS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS
MAINTAIN SIMILAR QPF TIMING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS... A SOMEWHAT QUICKER
PROGRESSION OF RAINS IS POSSIBLE AND WE HAD TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FROM OUR PREVIOUS THINKING GIVEN CONSENSUS OF CONDENSATION
DEFICIT PROGS AND INITIAL ARRIVAL OF UPPER FORCING. SPRINKLES AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAINS MAY BREAK OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS IN A FEW AREAS
TO THE WEST OF I-95 BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE RAINS EXPAND AFTER
06Z WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AS SUNRISE ARRIVES SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
QPF SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY MOISTENING
UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HELP TO
ANCHOR A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LOWS 40-45 NORTH
AND MID 40S S OF I-16.

SATURDAY...A WET DAY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE FORCING
PERSISTS FROM A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG
UPPER LVL JET POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A QUICKLY PACED EVENT THAT
OFFERS LESS PRECIP ACCUMULATION...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW TENTHS OF
INCH OVER MOST AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER WITHIN THE WEDGE AND UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID/UPPER 50S
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS REACH 60 IN OUR
MOST SOUTHERN ZONES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING/DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S...COOLEST OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY...BUT MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE INDICATED 20-30 POPS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN INCREASING UPWARDS
TO AROUND 70 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER
OR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK IN THE LOWER
60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S
ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE
INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z. AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z-09Z...BUT GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE OPTED TO DELAY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
UNTIL AFTER 12Z. ONCE CEILINGS LOWER SATURDAY MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...AND AT
LEAST OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS/MVFR VISIBILITIES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN N/NE WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 1
FOOT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN...A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KT OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS BUILDING TO 2-3 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS. A
GALE WATCH COULD BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-8 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR






000
FXUS62 KCHS 191745
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1245 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SHIFT OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH DRYER
CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING COVERAGE TREND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THE
AREA. THUS FAR...CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED TEMPERATURE RECOVERY...BUT A
GENERAL INCREASE IN INSOLATION SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PUSH
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FAST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST INTRODUCING POPS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS
MAINTAIN SIMILAR QPF TIMING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS... A SOMEWHAT QUICKER
PROGRESSION OF RAINS IS POSSIBLE AND WE HAD TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FROM OUR PREVIOUS THINKING GIVEN CONSENSUS OF CONDENSATION
DEFICIT PROGS AND INITIAL ARRIVAL OF UPPER FORCING. SPRINKLES AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAINS MAY BREAK OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS IN A FEW AREAS
TO THE WEST OF I-95 BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE RAINS EXPAND AFTER
06Z WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AS SUNRISE ARRIVES SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
QPF SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY MOISTENING
UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HELP TO
ANCHOR A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LOWS 40-45 NORTH
AND MID 40S S OF I-16.

SATURDAY...A WET DAY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE FORCING
PERSISTS FROM A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG
UPPER LVL JET POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A QUICKLY PACED EVENT THAT
OFFERS LESS PRECIP ACCUMULATION...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW TENTHS OF
INCH OVER MOST AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER WITHIN THE WEDGE AND UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID/UPPER 50S
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS REACH 60 IN OUR
MOST SOUTHERN ZONES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING/DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S...COOLEST OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY...BUT MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE INDICATED 20-30 POPS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN INCREASING UPWARDS
TO AROUND 70 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER
OR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK IN THE LOWER
60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S
ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE
INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z. AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z-09Z...BUT GIVEN
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE OPTED TO DELAY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
UNTIL AFTER 12Z. ONCE CEILINGS LOWER SATURDAY MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...AND AT
LEAST OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS/MVFR VISIBILITIES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN N/NE WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 1
FOOT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN...A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KT OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS BUILDING TO 2-3 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS. A
GALE WATCH COULD BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-8 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR






000
FXUS62 KFFC 191731 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1231 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...

FOR THE MOST PART GRIDS LOOK GOOD THIS MORNING. CONTINUED TREND OF
GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS GENERALLY AFTER 18Z BUT WILL EVALUATE
THAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRECIP INCREASES ACROSS ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES LOOK OKAY...PROBABLY A LITTLE MORE
DIFFUSE LIGHT COMING THROUGH THE CLOUDS THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED /AT LEAST TILL THE THICKER CIRRUS DECK ARRIVES/ SO
HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS UP JUST A TAD...MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO.
OTHERWISE BIG CHANGES ARE FOR WINDS AND THAT IS MAINLY AN AVIATION
CONCERN. WILL REFRESH WORDING OF PRODUCTS BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAIN LOW CENTER SPINNING JUST NORTH
OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE MOISTURE PLUME
EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...THROUGH MEXICO...AND
OUT INTO THE PACIFIC. YOU CAN ALSO SEE A DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG
THIS PLUME NOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TX WHICH WILL BECOME
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKE FOR GA. THIS DEVELOPING WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OUT OF TX AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY. THIS
WAVE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS GA BY 00-06Z SAT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...OVERSPREADING
MAJORITY OF AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS
INCREASING FROM THE SW BEGINNING AROUND 18Z TODAY MAXING OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN DIMINISHING
FROM THE NW SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. QPF VALUES STILL DO NOT
LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH STORM TOTALS GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF
INCH.

01

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM... WITH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING ANOTHER COOL WEDGE
SETTING UP ON SUNDAY AND GETTING OVERRUN WITH A MOIST MID LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS GETS ENHANCED BY A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF MAINLY RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO HOLD STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE STATE AND WARRANT A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME... INSTABILITIES AND ANY THUNDER THREAT APPEARS TO REMAIN
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THIS
CHANGES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS AGREE ON A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY... THEN KICKING EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT... ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING 200-600 MUCAPE
NOSING UP ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS COUPLED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT WILL WARRANT ADDING MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT
SUSPECT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NORTH
GEORGIA WITH LATER MODEL RUNS CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED UPPER
FORCING. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT AS
INSTABILITIES AND DEEP SHEAR REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST FOR NOW... BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITIES AND SHEAR
ARE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...  WRAP AROUND MOISTURE...
STRONG UPPER FORCING AND TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST
GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING... BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH AIR AND GROUND TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. THE SNOW
SHOWERS POTENTIAL RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING... BUT
WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS TO DOMINATE MOSTLY ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS WILL BEGIN DROPPING
GRADUALLY TONIGHT WITH LOW VFR EXPECTED BY JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
-RA MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL...WITH CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 12Z. -RA MOVES OUT BEFORE NOON FOR THE
NORTHERN TAFS...CLOSER TO NOON FOR MCN/CSG...AND MVFR CIGS LINGER
JUST ABOUT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL BUT ATL. NW WINDS
EARLY SHIFTING TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT /CURRENT TIMING IS 05Z/ AND
CONTINUING TO VEER TOWARD E BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM-HIGH ON TIMING OF ALL ELEMENTS...HIGH ON OCCURRENCE.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  41  47  39 /   5  80  70  20
ATLANTA         55  42  50  42 /  10  80  70  10
BLAIRSVILLE     52  38  46  37 /   5  80  50  10
CARTERSVILLE    52  38  49  38 /  10  80  60  10
COLUMBUS        59  45  56  44 /  30 100  90  20
GAINESVILLE     52  40  47  39 /   5  80  60  10
MACON           60  43  55  42 /  10  90  90  20
ROME            52  37  50  36 /  10  80  50   5
PEACHTREE CITY  55  40  51  37 /  20  90  80  20
VIDALIA         63  47  56  45 /   5  80  80  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 191731 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1231 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...

FOR THE MOST PART GRIDS LOOK GOOD THIS MORNING. CONTINUED TREND OF
GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS GENERALLY AFTER 18Z BUT WILL EVALUATE
THAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRECIP INCREASES ACROSS ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES LOOK OKAY...PROBABLY A LITTLE MORE
DIFFUSE LIGHT COMING THROUGH THE CLOUDS THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED /AT LEAST TILL THE THICKER CIRRUS DECK ARRIVES/ SO
HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS UP JUST A TAD...MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO.
OTHERWISE BIG CHANGES ARE FOR WINDS AND THAT IS MAINLY AN AVIATION
CONCERN. WILL REFRESH WORDING OF PRODUCTS BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAIN LOW CENTER SPINNING JUST NORTH
OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE MOISTURE PLUME
EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...THROUGH MEXICO...AND
OUT INTO THE PACIFIC. YOU CAN ALSO SEE A DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG
THIS PLUME NOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TX WHICH WILL BECOME
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKE FOR GA. THIS DEVELOPING WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OUT OF TX AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY. THIS
WAVE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS GA BY 00-06Z SAT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...OVERSPREADING
MAJORITY OF AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS
INCREASING FROM THE SW BEGINNING AROUND 18Z TODAY MAXING OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN DIMINISHING
FROM THE NW SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. QPF VALUES STILL DO NOT
LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH STORM TOTALS GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF
INCH.

01

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM... WITH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING ANOTHER COOL WEDGE
SETTING UP ON SUNDAY AND GETTING OVERRUN WITH A MOIST MID LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS GETS ENHANCED BY A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF MAINLY RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO HOLD STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE STATE AND WARRANT A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME... INSTABILITIES AND ANY THUNDER THREAT APPEARS TO REMAIN
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THIS
CHANGES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS AGREE ON A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY... THEN KICKING EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT... ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING 200-600 MUCAPE
NOSING UP ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS COUPLED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT WILL WARRANT ADDING MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT
SUSPECT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NORTH
GEORGIA WITH LATER MODEL RUNS CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED UPPER
FORCING. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT AS
INSTABILITIES AND DEEP SHEAR REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST FOR NOW... BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITIES AND SHEAR
ARE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...  WRAP AROUND MOISTURE...
STRONG UPPER FORCING AND TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST
GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING... BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH AIR AND GROUND TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. THE SNOW
SHOWERS POTENTIAL RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING... BUT
WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS TO DOMINATE MOSTLY ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS WILL BEGIN DROPPING
GRADUALLY TONIGHT WITH LOW VFR EXPECTED BY JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
-RA MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL...WITH CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 12Z. -RA MOVES OUT BEFORE NOON FOR THE
NORTHERN TAFS...CLOSER TO NOON FOR MCN/CSG...AND MVFR CIGS LINGER
JUST ABOUT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL BUT ATL. NW WINDS
EARLY SHIFTING TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT /CURRENT TIMING IS 05Z/ AND
CONTINUING TO VEER TOWARD E BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM-HIGH ON TIMING OF ALL ELEMENTS...HIGH ON OCCURRENCE.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  41  47  39 /   5  80  70  20
ATLANTA         55  42  50  42 /  10  80  70  10
BLAIRSVILLE     52  38  46  37 /   5  80  50  10
CARTERSVILLE    52  38  49  38 /  10  80  60  10
COLUMBUS        59  45  56  44 /  30 100  90  20
GAINESVILLE     52  40  47  39 /   5  80  60  10
MACON           60  43  55  42 /  10  90  90  20
ROME            52  37  50  36 /  10  80  50   5
PEACHTREE CITY  55  40  51  37 /  20  90  80  20
VIDALIA         63  47  56  45 /   5  80  80  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 191552 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1052 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
SOME CONFLUENCE OF THE 500MB FLOW SHOULD YIELD SOME THINNING OF
THE HIGHER CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN MORE DENSE CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING INTO THE
MID 50S ALREADY AND WILL BUMP UP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SUN BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE MODELS
DISPLAY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH. THE RAIN CHANCE
SHOULD INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE SPC WRF HAS RAIN
REACHING THE CSRA DURING THE 400 AM TO 700 AM TIME FRAME. THE SREF
POPS SUPPORT THIS TREND WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTION
BY 700 AM. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY
AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM.

THE MODELS SHOW HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BELIEVE
THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE NEAR 10
PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY LATER
TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 191552 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1052 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
SOME CONFLUENCE OF THE 500MB FLOW SHOULD YIELD SOME THINNING OF
THE HIGHER CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN MORE DENSE CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING INTO THE
MID 50S ALREADY AND WILL BUMP UP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SUN BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE MODELS
DISPLAY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH. THE RAIN CHANCE
SHOULD INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE SPC WRF HAS RAIN
REACHING THE CSRA DURING THE 400 AM TO 700 AM TIME FRAME. THE SREF
POPS SUPPORT THIS TREND WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTION
BY 700 AM. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY
AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM.

THE MODELS SHOW HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BELIEVE
THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE NEAR 10
PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY LATER
TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 191552 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1052 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
SOME CONFLUENCE OF THE 500MB FLOW SHOULD YIELD SOME THINNING OF
THE HIGHER CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN MORE DENSE CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING INTO THE
MID 50S ALREADY AND WILL BUMP UP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SUN BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE MODELS
DISPLAY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH. THE RAIN CHANCE
SHOULD INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE SPC WRF HAS RAIN
REACHING THE CSRA DURING THE 400 AM TO 700 AM TIME FRAME. THE SREF
POPS SUPPORT THIS TREND WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTION
BY 700 AM. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY
AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM.

THE MODELS SHOW HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BELIEVE
THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE NEAR 10
PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY LATER
TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 191552 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1052 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
SOME CONFLUENCE OF THE 500MB FLOW SHOULD YIELD SOME THINNING OF
THE HIGHER CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN MORE DENSE CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING INTO THE
MID 50S ALREADY AND WILL BUMP UP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SUN BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE MODELS
DISPLAY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH. THE RAIN CHANCE
SHOULD INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE SPC WRF HAS RAIN
REACHING THE CSRA DURING THE 400 AM TO 700 AM TIME FRAME. THE SREF
POPS SUPPORT THIS TREND WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTION
BY 700 AM. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY
AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM.

THE MODELS SHOW HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BELIEVE
THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE NEAR 10
PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY LATER
TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 191538 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1038 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

FOR THE MOST PART GRIDS LOOK GOOD THIS MORNING. CONTINUED TREND OF
GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS GENERALLY AFTER 18Z BUT WILL EVALUATE
THAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRECIP INCREASES ACROSS ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES LOOK OKAY...PROBABLY A LITTLE MORE
DIFFUSE LIGHT COMING THROUGH THE CLOUDS THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED /AT LEAST TILL THE THICKER CIRRUS DECK ARRIVES/ SO
HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS UP JUST A TAD...MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO.
OTHERWISE BIG CHANGES ARE FOR WINDS AND THAT IS MAINLY AN AVIATION
CONCERN. WILL REFRESH WORDING OF PRODUCTS BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAIN LOW CENTER SPINNING JUST NORTH
OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE MOISTURE PLUME
EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...THROUGH MEXICO...AND
OUT INTO THE PACIFIC. YOU CAN ALSO SEE A DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG
THIS PLUME NOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TX WHICH WILL BECOME
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKE FOR GA. THIS DEVELOPING WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OUT OF TX AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY. THIS
WAVE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS GA BY 00-06Z SAT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...OVERSPREADING
MAJORITY OF AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS
INCREASING FROM THE SW BEGINNING AROUND 18Z TODAY MAXING OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN DIMINISHING
FROM THE NW SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. QPF VALUES STILL DO NOT
LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH STORM TOTALS GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF
INCH.

01

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM... WITH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING ANOTHER COOL WEDGE
SETTING UP ON SUNDAY AND GETTING OVERRUN WITH A MOIST MID LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS GETS ENHANCED BY A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF MAINLY RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO HOLD STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE STATE AND WARRANT A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME... INSTABILITIES AND ANY THUNDER THREAT APPEARS TO REMAIN
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THIS
CHANGES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS AGREE ON A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY... THEN KICKING EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT... ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING 200-600 MUCAPE
NOSING UP ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS COUPLED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT WILL WARRANT ADDING MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT
SUSPECT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NORTH
GEORGIA WITH LATER MODEL RUNS CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED UPPER
FORCING. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT AS
INSTABILITIES AND DEEP SHEAR REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST FOR NOW... BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITIES AND SHEAR
ARE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...  WRAP AROUND MOISTURE...
STRONG UPPER FORCING AND TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST
GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING... BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH AIR AND GROUND TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. THE SNOW
SHOWERS POTENTIAL RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING... BUT
WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS TO DOMINATE MOSTLY ON
THURSDAY.

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 06Z TAF SET. VFR CONDITIONS TO START
THIS TAF PERIOD BUT CEILINGS WILL LOWER AS PRECIP MOVES IN AFTER
00Z SAT. CURRENTLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BUT CEILINGS WILL
INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. BY 06Z SAT LOOKING FOR
CEILINGS IN THE 3000-4000FT RANGE WITH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
TAF SITES. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT ENDING SAT
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NW BUT WILL TURN TO THE NE BY 00Z
AND TO THE EAST BY 06Z. WINDS SPEEDS EXPECTED TO STAY 10KT OR
LESS. VSBYS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE BUT COULD BRIEFLY SEE SOME
MVFR VSBYS IN AND AROUND ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OVER NIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  41  47  39 /  10 100 100  20
ATLANTA         55  42  50  42 /  20 100 100  10
BLAIRSVILLE     52  38  46  37 /   5  90  80   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  38  49  38 /  20 100 100  10
COLUMBUS        59  45  56  44 /  50 100 100  20
GAINESVILLE     52  40  47  39 /  10 100 100  10
MACON           60  43  55  42 /  40 100 100  20
ROME            52  37  50  36 /  10  90  80   5
PEACHTREE CITY  55  40  51  37 /  30 100 100  20
VIDALIA         63  47  56  45 /  20 100 100  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 191538 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1038 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

FOR THE MOST PART GRIDS LOOK GOOD THIS MORNING. CONTINUED TREND OF
GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS GENERALLY AFTER 18Z BUT WILL EVALUATE
THAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRECIP INCREASES ACROSS ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES LOOK OKAY...PROBABLY A LITTLE MORE
DIFFUSE LIGHT COMING THROUGH THE CLOUDS THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED /AT LEAST TILL THE THICKER CIRRUS DECK ARRIVES/ SO
HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS UP JUST A TAD...MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO.
OTHERWISE BIG CHANGES ARE FOR WINDS AND THAT IS MAINLY AN AVIATION
CONCERN. WILL REFRESH WORDING OF PRODUCTS BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAIN LOW CENTER SPINNING JUST NORTH
OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE MOISTURE PLUME
EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...THROUGH MEXICO...AND
OUT INTO THE PACIFIC. YOU CAN ALSO SEE A DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG
THIS PLUME NOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TX WHICH WILL BECOME
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKE FOR GA. THIS DEVELOPING WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OUT OF TX AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY. THIS
WAVE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS GA BY 00-06Z SAT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...OVERSPREADING
MAJORITY OF AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS
INCREASING FROM THE SW BEGINNING AROUND 18Z TODAY MAXING OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN DIMINISHING
FROM THE NW SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. QPF VALUES STILL DO NOT
LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH STORM TOTALS GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF
INCH.

01

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM... WITH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING ANOTHER COOL WEDGE
SETTING UP ON SUNDAY AND GETTING OVERRUN WITH A MOIST MID LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS GETS ENHANCED BY A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF MAINLY RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO HOLD STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE STATE AND WARRANT A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME... INSTABILITIES AND ANY THUNDER THREAT APPEARS TO REMAIN
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THIS
CHANGES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS AGREE ON A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY... THEN KICKING EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT... ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING 200-600 MUCAPE
NOSING UP ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS COUPLED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT WILL WARRANT ADDING MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT
SUSPECT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NORTH
GEORGIA WITH LATER MODEL RUNS CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED UPPER
FORCING. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT AS
INSTABILITIES AND DEEP SHEAR REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST FOR NOW... BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITIES AND SHEAR
ARE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...  WRAP AROUND MOISTURE...
STRONG UPPER FORCING AND TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST
GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING... BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH AIR AND GROUND TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. THE SNOW
SHOWERS POTENTIAL RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING... BUT
WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS TO DOMINATE MOSTLY ON
THURSDAY.

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 06Z TAF SET. VFR CONDITIONS TO START
THIS TAF PERIOD BUT CEILINGS WILL LOWER AS PRECIP MOVES IN AFTER
00Z SAT. CURRENTLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BUT CEILINGS WILL
INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. BY 06Z SAT LOOKING FOR
CEILINGS IN THE 3000-4000FT RANGE WITH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
TAF SITES. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT ENDING SAT
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NW BUT WILL TURN TO THE NE BY 00Z
AND TO THE EAST BY 06Z. WINDS SPEEDS EXPECTED TO STAY 10KT OR
LESS. VSBYS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE BUT COULD BRIEFLY SEE SOME
MVFR VSBYS IN AND AROUND ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OVER NIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  41  47  39 /  10 100 100  20
ATLANTA         55  42  50  42 /  20 100 100  10
BLAIRSVILLE     52  38  46  37 /   5  90  80   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  38  49  38 /  20 100 100  10
COLUMBUS        59  45  56  44 /  50 100 100  20
GAINESVILLE     52  40  47  39 /  10 100 100  10
MACON           60  43  55  42 /  40 100 100  20
ROME            52  37  50  36 /  10  90  80   5
PEACHTREE CITY  55  40  51  37 /  30 100 100  20
VIDALIA         63  47  56  45 /  20 100 100  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCHS 191442
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
942 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SHIFT
OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH DRYER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW
THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRIDAY MORNING...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS DEVELOPING WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME ENHANCED BY A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING TX WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION
FROM W/SW TO E/NE TODAY...PRODUCING PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. ADJUSTED SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY. CLOUD COVER COULD TRANSLATE
TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...BUT GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID/HIGH CLOUDS THINNING FOR AT LEAST BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE MAINTAINED HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WARMEST NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. OTHERWISE...FORECAST PARAMETERS REMAIN ON
TRACK AND REQUIRED LITTLE/NO ADJUSTMENT WITHIN THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FAST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST INTRODUCING POPS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS
MAINTAIN SIMILAR QPF TIMING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS... A SOMEWHAT QUICKER
PROGRESSION OF RAINS IS POSSIBLE AND WE HAD TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FROM OUR PREVIOUS THINKING GIVEN CONSENSUS OF CONDENSATION
DEFICIT PROGS AND INITIAL ARRIVAL OF UPPER FORCING. SPRINKLES AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAINS MAY BREAK OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS IN A FEW AREAS
TO THE WEST OF I-95 BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE RAINS EXPAND AFTER
06Z WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AS SUNRISE ARRIVES SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
QPF SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY MOISTENING
UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HELP TO
ANCHOR A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LOWS 40-45 NORTH
AND MID 40S S OF I-16.

SATURDAY...A WET DAY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE FORCING
PERSISTS FROM A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG
UPPER LVL JET POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A QUICKLY PACED EVENT THAT
OFFERS LESS PRECIP ACCUMULATION...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW TENTHS OF
INCH OVER MOST AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER WITHIN THE WEDGE AND UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID/UPPER 50S
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS REACH 60 IN OUR
MOST SOUTHERN ZONES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING/DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S...COOLEST OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY...BUT MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE INDICATED 20-30 POPS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN INCREASING UPWARDS
TO AROUND 70 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER
OR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK IN THE LOWER
60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S
ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE
INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT KSAV AND KCHS LIKELY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. CIGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CIGS REMAIN VFR UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER
CLOUDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF RAINS DEVELOP EVEN SOONER THAN
EXPECTED. AS OF THE 12Z CYCLE...THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL CORRIDOR BUT MAINLY REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS PRIOR TO SOME SLOWLY
BUILDING NE FLOW TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN WE
WILL SEE NE WINDS INCREASE CLOSER TO 15 KT BY 12Z SATURDAY OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BUT LESSER SPEEDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD GIVEN
THE ANGLE OF THE DEVELOPING PINCHING GRADIENTS. SEAS LESS THAN 2
FT SEAS MOST OF TODAY WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS. A
GALE WATCH COULD BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-8 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR






000
FXUS62 KCHS 191442
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
942 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SHIFT
OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH DRYER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW
THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRIDAY MORNING...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS DEVELOPING WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME ENHANCED BY A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING TX WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION
FROM W/SW TO E/NE TODAY...PRODUCING PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. ADJUSTED SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY. CLOUD COVER COULD TRANSLATE
TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...BUT GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID/HIGH CLOUDS THINNING FOR AT LEAST BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE MAINTAINED HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WARMEST NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. OTHERWISE...FORECAST PARAMETERS REMAIN ON
TRACK AND REQUIRED LITTLE/NO ADJUSTMENT WITHIN THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FAST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST INTRODUCING POPS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS
MAINTAIN SIMILAR QPF TIMING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS... A SOMEWHAT QUICKER
PROGRESSION OF RAINS IS POSSIBLE AND WE HAD TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FROM OUR PREVIOUS THINKING GIVEN CONSENSUS OF CONDENSATION
DEFICIT PROGS AND INITIAL ARRIVAL OF UPPER FORCING. SPRINKLES AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAINS MAY BREAK OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS IN A FEW AREAS
TO THE WEST OF I-95 BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE RAINS EXPAND AFTER
06Z WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AS SUNRISE ARRIVES SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
QPF SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY MOISTENING
UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HELP TO
ANCHOR A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LOWS 40-45 NORTH
AND MID 40S S OF I-16.

SATURDAY...A WET DAY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE FORCING
PERSISTS FROM A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG
UPPER LVL JET POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A QUICKLY PACED EVENT THAT
OFFERS LESS PRECIP ACCUMULATION...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW TENTHS OF
INCH OVER MOST AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER WITHIN THE WEDGE AND UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID/UPPER 50S
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS REACH 60 IN OUR
MOST SOUTHERN ZONES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING/DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S...COOLEST OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY...BUT MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE INDICATED 20-30 POPS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN INCREASING UPWARDS
TO AROUND 70 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER
OR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK IN THE LOWER
60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S
ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE
INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT KSAV AND KCHS LIKELY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. CIGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CIGS REMAIN VFR UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER
CLOUDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF RAINS DEVELOP EVEN SOONER THAN
EXPECTED. AS OF THE 12Z CYCLE...THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL CORRIDOR BUT MAINLY REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS PRIOR TO SOME SLOWLY
BUILDING NE FLOW TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN WE
WILL SEE NE WINDS INCREASE CLOSER TO 15 KT BY 12Z SATURDAY OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BUT LESSER SPEEDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD GIVEN
THE ANGLE OF THE DEVELOPING PINCHING GRADIENTS. SEAS LESS THAN 2
FT SEAS MOST OF TODAY WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS. A
GALE WATCH COULD BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-8 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 191212
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
712 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SHIFT OVER THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH DRYER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING AHEAD AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE IS ON TAP
TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THIS PRECEDES A
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WHICH WILL TAP SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SPREAD A
MIX OF CONVECTIVE AND STRATIFORM RAINS ACROSS THE LOWER GULF COAST
REGION. PERIODS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MILD
TEMPS IN THE 60S ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z H3R...NAM...AND GEM
CLOUD FIELD PROGS INDICATED THICKER HIGH CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK...
THINNING LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE EXPANDING LATER IN
THE DAY. WE MAINTAINED STRONG PERSISTENCE WITH OUR PREVIOUS MAX
TEMP FORECAST GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS AND MAINLY THIN
CLOUDS EXPECTED.

VERY FAST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST INTRODUCING POPS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS
MAINTAIN SIMILAR QPF TIMING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS... A SOMEWHAT QUICKER
PROGRESSION OF RAINS IS POSSIBLE AND WE HAD TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FROM OUR PREVIOUS THINKING GIVEN CONSENSUS OF CONDENSATION
DEFICIT PROGS AND INITIAL ARRIVAL OF UPPER FORCING. SPRINKLES AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAINS MAY BREAK OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS IN A FEW AREAS
TO THE WEST OF I-95 BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE RAINS EXPAND AFTER
06Z WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AS SUNRISE ARRIVES SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
QPF SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY MOISTENING
UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HELP TO
ANCHOR A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LOWS 40-45 NORTH
AND MID 40S S OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...A WET DAY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE FORCING
PERSISTS FROM A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG
UPPER LVL JET POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A QUICKLY PACED EVENT THAT
OFFERS LESS PRECIP ACCUMULATION...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW TENTHS OF
INCH OVER MOST AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER WITHIN THE WEDGE AND UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID/UPPER 50S
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS REACH 60 IN OUR
MOST SOUTHERN ZONES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING/DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S...COOLEST OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY...BUT MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE INDICATED 20-30 POPS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN INCREASING UPWARDS
TO AROUND 70 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER
OR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK IN THE LOWER
60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S
ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE
INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT KCHS AT DAWN...DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. VFR
AT KSAV AND KCHS LIKELY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN
TO LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS
REMAIN VFR UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IF RAINS DEVELOP EVEN SOONER THAN EXPECTED. AS OF THE 12Z
CYCLE...THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL CORRIDOR BUT MAINLY REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS PRIOR TO SOME SLOWLY
BUILDING NE FLOW TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WE
WILL SEE NE WINDS INCREASE CLOSER TO 15 KT BY 12Z SATURDAY OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BUT LESSER SPEEDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD GIVEN
THE ANGLE OF THE DEVELOPING PINCHING GRADIENTS. 1-2 FT SEAS MOST
OF TODAY WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS. A
GALE WATCH COULD BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-8 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB






000
FXUS62 KCHS 191212
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
712 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SHIFT OVER THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH DRYER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING AHEAD AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE IS ON TAP
TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THIS PRECEDES A
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WHICH WILL TAP SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SPREAD A
MIX OF CONVECTIVE AND STRATIFORM RAINS ACROSS THE LOWER GULF COAST
REGION. PERIODS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MILD
TEMPS IN THE 60S ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z H3R...NAM...AND GEM
CLOUD FIELD PROGS INDICATED THICKER HIGH CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK...
THINNING LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE EXPANDING LATER IN
THE DAY. WE MAINTAINED STRONG PERSISTENCE WITH OUR PREVIOUS MAX
TEMP FORECAST GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS AND MAINLY THIN
CLOUDS EXPECTED.

VERY FAST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST INTRODUCING POPS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS
MAINTAIN SIMILAR QPF TIMING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS... A SOMEWHAT QUICKER
PROGRESSION OF RAINS IS POSSIBLE AND WE HAD TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FROM OUR PREVIOUS THINKING GIVEN CONSENSUS OF CONDENSATION
DEFICIT PROGS AND INITIAL ARRIVAL OF UPPER FORCING. SPRINKLES AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAINS MAY BREAK OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS IN A FEW AREAS
TO THE WEST OF I-95 BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE RAINS EXPAND AFTER
06Z WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AS SUNRISE ARRIVES SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
QPF SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY MOISTENING
UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HELP TO
ANCHOR A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LOWS 40-45 NORTH
AND MID 40S S OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...A WET DAY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE FORCING
PERSISTS FROM A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG
UPPER LVL JET POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A QUICKLY PACED EVENT THAT
OFFERS LESS PRECIP ACCUMULATION...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW TENTHS OF
INCH OVER MOST AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER WITHIN THE WEDGE AND UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID/UPPER 50S
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS REACH 60 IN OUR
MOST SOUTHERN ZONES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING/DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S...COOLEST OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY...BUT MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE INDICATED 20-30 POPS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN INCREASING UPWARDS
TO AROUND 70 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER
OR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK IN THE LOWER
60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S
ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE
INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT KCHS AT DAWN...DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. VFR
AT KSAV AND KCHS LIKELY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN
TO LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS
REMAIN VFR UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IF RAINS DEVELOP EVEN SOONER THAN EXPECTED. AS OF THE 12Z
CYCLE...THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL CORRIDOR BUT MAINLY REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS PRIOR TO SOME SLOWLY
BUILDING NE FLOW TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WE
WILL SEE NE WINDS INCREASE CLOSER TO 15 KT BY 12Z SATURDAY OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BUT LESSER SPEEDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD GIVEN
THE ANGLE OF THE DEVELOPING PINCHING GRADIENTS. 1-2 FT SEAS MOST
OF TODAY WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS. A
GALE WATCH COULD BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-8 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB






000
FXUS62 KCHS 191212
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
712 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SHIFT OVER THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH DRYER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING AHEAD AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE IS ON TAP
TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THIS PRECEDES A
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WHICH WILL TAP SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SPREAD A
MIX OF CONVECTIVE AND STRATIFORM RAINS ACROSS THE LOWER GULF COAST
REGION. PERIODS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MILD
TEMPS IN THE 60S ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z H3R...NAM...AND GEM
CLOUD FIELD PROGS INDICATED THICKER HIGH CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK...
THINNING LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE EXPANDING LATER IN
THE DAY. WE MAINTAINED STRONG PERSISTENCE WITH OUR PREVIOUS MAX
TEMP FORECAST GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS AND MAINLY THIN
CLOUDS EXPECTED.

VERY FAST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST INTRODUCING POPS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS
MAINTAIN SIMILAR QPF TIMING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS... A SOMEWHAT QUICKER
PROGRESSION OF RAINS IS POSSIBLE AND WE HAD TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FROM OUR PREVIOUS THINKING GIVEN CONSENSUS OF CONDENSATION
DEFICIT PROGS AND INITIAL ARRIVAL OF UPPER FORCING. SPRINKLES AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAINS MAY BREAK OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS IN A FEW AREAS
TO THE WEST OF I-95 BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE RAINS EXPAND AFTER
06Z WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AS SUNRISE ARRIVES SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
QPF SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY MOISTENING
UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HELP TO
ANCHOR A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LOWS 40-45 NORTH
AND MID 40S S OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...A WET DAY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE FORCING
PERSISTS FROM A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG
UPPER LVL JET POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A QUICKLY PACED EVENT THAT
OFFERS LESS PRECIP ACCUMULATION...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW TENTHS OF
INCH OVER MOST AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER WITHIN THE WEDGE AND UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID/UPPER 50S
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS REACH 60 IN OUR
MOST SOUTHERN ZONES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING/DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S...COOLEST OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY...BUT MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE INDICATED 20-30 POPS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN INCREASING UPWARDS
TO AROUND 70 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER
OR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK IN THE LOWER
60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S
ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE
INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT KCHS AT DAWN...DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. VFR
AT KSAV AND KCHS LIKELY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN
TO LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS
REMAIN VFR UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IF RAINS DEVELOP EVEN SOONER THAN EXPECTED. AS OF THE 12Z
CYCLE...THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL CORRIDOR BUT MAINLY REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS PRIOR TO SOME SLOWLY
BUILDING NE FLOW TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WE
WILL SEE NE WINDS INCREASE CLOSER TO 15 KT BY 12Z SATURDAY OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BUT LESSER SPEEDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD GIVEN
THE ANGLE OF THE DEVELOPING PINCHING GRADIENTS. 1-2 FT SEAS MOST
OF TODAY WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS. A
GALE WATCH COULD BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-8 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB






000
FXUS62 KCHS 191212
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
712 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SHIFT OVER THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH DRYER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING AHEAD AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE IS ON TAP
TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THIS PRECEDES A
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WHICH WILL TAP SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SPREAD A
MIX OF CONVECTIVE AND STRATIFORM RAINS ACROSS THE LOWER GULF COAST
REGION. PERIODS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MILD
TEMPS IN THE 60S ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z H3R...NAM...AND GEM
CLOUD FIELD PROGS INDICATED THICKER HIGH CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK...
THINNING LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE EXPANDING LATER IN
THE DAY. WE MAINTAINED STRONG PERSISTENCE WITH OUR PREVIOUS MAX
TEMP FORECAST GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS AND MAINLY THIN
CLOUDS EXPECTED.

VERY FAST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY FORECAST INTRODUCING POPS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS
MAINTAIN SIMILAR QPF TIMING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS... A SOMEWHAT QUICKER
PROGRESSION OF RAINS IS POSSIBLE AND WE HAD TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FROM OUR PREVIOUS THINKING GIVEN CONSENSUS OF CONDENSATION
DEFICIT PROGS AND INITIAL ARRIVAL OF UPPER FORCING. SPRINKLES AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAINS MAY BREAK OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS IN A FEW AREAS
TO THE WEST OF I-95 BUT MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE RAINS EXPAND AFTER
06Z WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AS SUNRISE ARRIVES SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
QPF SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT WITH VERTICAL PROFILES ONLY MOISTENING
UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HELP TO
ANCHOR A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LOWS 40-45 NORTH
AND MID 40S S OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...A WET DAY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
LIFTS MOISTURE OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE FORCING
PERSISTS FROM A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG
UPPER LVL JET POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A QUICKLY PACED EVENT THAT
OFFERS LESS PRECIP ACCUMULATION...WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW TENTHS OF
INCH OVER MOST AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER WITHIN THE WEDGE AND UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID/UPPER 50S
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS REACH 60 IN OUR
MOST SOUTHERN ZONES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING/DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S...COOLEST OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY DRY...BUT MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE INDICATED 20-30 POPS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN INCREASING UPWARDS
TO AROUND 70 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER
OR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
APPEAR TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES SHIFT
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPS COULD PEAK IN THE LOWER
60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND IN THE LOW 50S
ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE DAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
WHILE ABUNDANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEDGE
INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH INTO A WEAKENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. A PERIOD
OF WARMING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS...RATHER THAN RAIN. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SHOULD
TRENDS PERSIST...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS ON TUESDAY...EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT. UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MUCH QUIETER/DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SHIFTING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT KCHS AT DAWN...DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. VFR
AT KSAV AND KCHS LIKELY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN
TO LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS
REMAIN VFR UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IF RAINS DEVELOP EVEN SOONER THAN EXPECTED. AS OF THE 12Z
CYCLE...THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL CORRIDOR BUT MAINLY REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH RAIN/SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS PRIOR TO SOME SLOWLY
BUILDING NE FLOW TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WE
WILL SEE NE WINDS INCREASE CLOSER TO 15 KT BY 12Z SATURDAY OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BUT LESSER SPEEDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD GIVEN
THE ANGLE OF THE DEVELOPING PINCHING GRADIENTS. 1-2 FT SEAS MOST
OF TODAY WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PERIODS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS. A
GALE WATCH COULD BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD UPWARDS TO 6-8 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB






000
FXUS62 KFFC 191141
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
641 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAIN LOW CENTER SPINNING JUST NORTH
OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE MOISTURE PLUME
EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...THROUGH MEXICO...AND
OUT INTO THE PACIFIC. YOU CAN ALSO SEE A DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG
THIS PLUME NOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TX WHICH WILL BECOME
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKE FOR GA. THIS DEVELOPING WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OUT OF TX AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY. THIS
WAVE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS GA BY 00-06Z SAT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...OVERSPREADING
MAJORITY OF AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH POPS
INCREASING FROM THE SW BEGINNING AROUND 18Z TODAY MAXING OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN DIMINISHING
FROM THE NW SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. QPF VALUES STILL DO NOT
LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH STORM TOTALS GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF
INCH.

01

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM... WITH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING ANOTHER COOL WEDGE
SETTING UP ON SUNDAY AND GETTING OVERRUN WITH A MOIST MID LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS GETS ENHANCED BY A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF MAINLY RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO HOLD STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE STATE AND WARRANT A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME... INSTABILITIES AND ANY THUNDER THREAT APPEARS TO REMAIN
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THIS
CHANGES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS AGREE ON A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY... THEN KICKING EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT... ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING 200-600 MUCAPE
NOSING UP ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS COUPLED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT WILL WARRANT ADDING MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT
SUSPECT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NORTH
GEORGIA WITH LATER MODEL RUNS CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED UPPER
FORCING. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT AS
INSTABILITIES AND DEEP SHEAR REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST FOR NOW... BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITIES AND SHEAR
ARE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...  WRAP AROUND MOISTURE...
STRONG UPPER FORCING AND TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST
GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING... BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH AIR AND GROUND TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. THE SNOW
SHOWERS POTENTIAL RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING... BUT
WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS TO DOMINATE MOSTLY ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 06Z TAF SET. VFR CONDITIONS TO START
THIS TAF PERIOD BUT CEILINGS WILL LOWER AS PRECIP MOVES IN AFTER
00Z SAT. CURRENTLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BUT CEILINGS WILL
INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. BY 06Z SAT LOOKING FOR
CEILINGS IN THE 3000-4000FT RANGE WITH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
TAF SITES. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT ENDING SAT
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NW BUT WILL TURN TO THE NE BY 00Z
AND TO THE EAST BY 06Z. WINDS SPEEDS EXPECTED TO STAY 10KT OR
LESS. VSBYS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE BUT COULD BRIEFLY SEE SOME
MVFR VSBYS IN AND AROUND ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OVER NIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  41  47  39 /  10 100 100  20
ATLANTA         54  42  50  42 /  20 100 100  10
BLAIRSVILLE     51  38  46  37 /   5  90  80   5
CARTERSVILLE    51  38  49  38 /  20 100 100  10
COLUMBUS        58  45  56  44 /  50 100 100  20
GAINESVILLE     51  40  47  39 /  10 100 100  10
MACON           59  43  55  42 /  40 100 100  20
ROME            51  37  50  36 /  10  90  80   5
PEACHTREE CITY  54  40  51  37 /  30 100 100  20
VIDALIA         62  47  56  45 /  20 100 100  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KCAE 191107
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
607 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BUT THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN GULF
COAST. MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEPER TONIGHT AS THE WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LOW WILL SHIFT
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY. THE LOW
MOVE MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WEAK AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST SURFACE
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SATELLITE DISPLAYS CONSIDERABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM. BELIEVE THE FLAT UPPER RIDGING
AND H5 CONFLUENT FLOW SHOWN BY THE MODELS WILL HELP KEEP THIS
CLOUDINESS GENERALLY THIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BASED ON
RECENT VERIFICATION.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE MODELS
DISPLAY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH. THE RAIN CHANCE
SHOULD INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE SPC WRF HAS RAIN
REACHING THE CSRA DURING THE 400 AM TO 700 AM TIME FRAME. THE SREF
POPS SUPPORT THIS TREND WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTION
BY 700 AM. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY
AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM.

THE MODELS SHOW HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BELIEVE
THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE NEAR 10
PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY LATER
TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIMITING EARLY MORNING FOG EXCEPT AT
AGS WHERE BRIEF IFR/LIFR VSBYS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED. VFR SHOULD
RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 13Z. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 191107
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
607 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BUT THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN GULF
COAST. MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEPER TONIGHT AS THE WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LOW WILL SHIFT
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY. THE LOW
MOVE MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WEAK AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST SURFACE
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SATELLITE DISPLAYS CONSIDERABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM. BELIEVE THE FLAT UPPER RIDGING
AND H5 CONFLUENT FLOW SHOWN BY THE MODELS WILL HELP KEEP THIS
CLOUDINESS GENERALLY THIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BASED ON
RECENT VERIFICATION.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE MODELS
DISPLAY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH. THE RAIN CHANCE
SHOULD INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE SPC WRF HAS RAIN
REACHING THE CSRA DURING THE 400 AM TO 700 AM TIME FRAME. THE SREF
POPS SUPPORT THIS TREND WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTION
BY 700 AM. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING ALL-LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SUPPORTS RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EARLY
AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY
AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM.

THE MODELS SHOW HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BELIEVE
THE RAIN CHANCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF LITTLE OR NO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS MOS POPS WERE NEAR 10
PERCENT. THE RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE SUNDAY BECAUSE OF AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ANOTHER APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH
SUNDAY BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. EXPECT A DIMINISHED SHOWER CHANCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND ECWMF DISPLAY A DRY
WEST FLOW BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY LATER
TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIMITING EARLY MORNING FOG EXCEPT AT
AGS WHERE BRIEF IFR/LIFR VSBYS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED. VFR SHOULD
RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 13Z. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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