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000
FXUS62 KCHS 241414
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1014 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRIDAY MORNING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND REQUIRED
ONLY MINOR HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS.

AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIG AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
HIGH CLOUDS OF VARYING THICKNESS WILL STEAM ACROSS THE REGION.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THICKER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
A LEAD SHORTWAVE...AT AND ABOVE 400 MB/25 KFT AGL PER THE 12Z KCHS
SOUNDING WHICH ALSO REVEALED VERY DRY AIR BELOW 400 MB...WILL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE ADVANCES OFFSHORE...THEN ADDITIONAL THICKER HIGH CLOUDS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE 12Z KCHS SOUNDING REVEALED VERY DRY AIR BELOW 400 MB.

THICKER CLOUDS COULD SLOW TEMPERATURE RECOVERY A BIT THIS MORNING
BUT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S ARE STILL EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS EVENING...POSITIVE 700 MB OMEGA AND ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME POCKETS OF MID LAYERED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA WITH BUILDING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
OVERNIGHT AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE
COULD BE A SLUGGISH DIURNAL CURVE TO TEMPS DURING THE EVENING BUT
READINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL AT A BETTER CLIP LATE.

AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES DURING THE PERIOD WHILE AT THE SURFACE DRY HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. AS THE 850 MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES ON SUNDAY...A WEAK...DRY FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL
YIELD A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 40S...THEN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST
WE WILL SEE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S LOWS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS MID-WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY SET UP
OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
REGARDING AN UPPER VORT DROPPING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE ARE HINTS AT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS DO NOT LOOK VERY MOIST SO WE CURRENTLY ONLY SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 10-15 KT WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHTER WINDS
INCLUDING A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING.
SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL PERSIST...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...A LATE NIGHT SURGE MAY
APPROACH 15 KT BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT FROM
THE NORTH NEAR SHORE NEARING DAYBREAK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 241414
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1014 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRIDAY MORNING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND REQUIRED
ONLY MINOR HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS.

AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIG AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
HIGH CLOUDS OF VARYING THICKNESS WILL STEAM ACROSS THE REGION.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THICKER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
A LEAD SHORTWAVE...AT AND ABOVE 400 MB/25 KFT AGL PER THE 12Z KCHS
SOUNDING WHICH ALSO REVEALED VERY DRY AIR BELOW 400 MB...WILL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE ADVANCES OFFSHORE...THEN ADDITIONAL THICKER HIGH CLOUDS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE 12Z KCHS SOUNDING REVEALED VERY DRY AIR BELOW 400 MB.

THICKER CLOUDS COULD SLOW TEMPERATURE RECOVERY A BIT THIS MORNING
BUT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S ARE STILL EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS EVENING...POSITIVE 700 MB OMEGA AND ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME POCKETS OF MID LAYERED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA WITH BUILDING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
OVERNIGHT AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE
COULD BE A SLUGGISH DIURNAL CURVE TO TEMPS DURING THE EVENING BUT
READINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL AT A BETTER CLIP LATE.

AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES DURING THE PERIOD WHILE AT THE SURFACE DRY HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. AS THE 850 MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES ON SUNDAY...A WEAK...DRY FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL
YIELD A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 40S...THEN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST
WE WILL SEE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S LOWS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS MID-WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY SET UP
OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
REGARDING AN UPPER VORT DROPPING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE ARE HINTS AT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS DO NOT LOOK VERY MOIST SO WE CURRENTLY ONLY SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 10-15 KT WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHTER WINDS
INCLUDING A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING.
SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL PERSIST...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...A LATE NIGHT SURGE MAY
APPROACH 15 KT BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT FROM
THE NORTH NEAR SHORE NEARING DAYBREAK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR






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000
FXUS62 KCAE 241346
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
946 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN DRY BUT HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL OCCUR. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. THIS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE BEST LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IT WILL REMAIN DRY. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV
MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE MAY AFFECT THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EARLY
AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. IFR/MVFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AT AGS AND OGB...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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000
FXUS62 KFFC 241135
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
735 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SHORTWAVE EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH LITTLE IMPACT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...WITH SUNNIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AS
CLOUDY CONDITIONS DIMINISH. WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

31

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
STILL PROGGING SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WITH THE FEATURE...SO HAVE
PRETTY MUCH GONE PERSISTENCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DID
ADD SOME SLIGHT POPS FOR EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE 500MB TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.

OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES. MIN AND MAX TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT
6 KT OR LESS. EXPECT NE WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING VRB AS THE
WINDS SWITCH BACK TO THE NW BY EARLY EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  47  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         72  53  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     70  41  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    72  45  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        75  52  78  53 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     71  50  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           76  45  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            72  46  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  73  43  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         76  52  78  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...31






000
FXUS62 KCHS 241110
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
710 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING
AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIG OUT UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF...FLORIDA/GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS BY LATE TONIGHT. DESPITE
THE PVA THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS BONE DRY THROUGH DEEP LAYERS WITH
PWATS 1/2 INCH OR LESS. BOUTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS FOR A SHORT WHILE
TONIGHT OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AS THE STRONGER OF THE VORTS
ROLLS THROUGH.

TODAY...DIFFICULT TO TELL IF HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL BE ENOUGH
TO TAKE A DEGREE OR SO OFF HIGH TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WE
MAINTAINED A FORECAST HIGH TEMP SCHEME OF MID 70S WITH SOME UPPER
70S POSSIBLE. A WEAK PRES PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THIS EVENING...POSITIVE 700 MB OMEGA AND ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME POCKETS OF MID LAYERED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA WITH BUILDING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
OVERNIGHT AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE
COULD BE A SLUGGISH DIURNAL CURVE TO TEMPS DURING THE EVENING BUT
READINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL AT A BETTER CLIP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES DURING THE PERIOD WHILE AT THE SURFACE DRY HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. AS THE 850 MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES ON SUNDAY...A WEAK...DRY FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL
YIELD A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 40S...THEN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST
WE WILL SEE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S LOWS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS MID-WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY SET UP
OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
REGARDING AN UPPER VORT DROPPING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE ARE HINTS AT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS DO NOT LOOK VERY MOIST SO WE CURRENTLY ONLY SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TODAY AS A WEAK PRES PATTERN RESIDES OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH WEAK
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...A LATE NIGHT SURGE MAY APPROACH 15
KT BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT FROM THE NORTH NEAR
SHORE NEARING DAYBREAK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL







000
FXUS62 KCAE 241043
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY BUT HIGH CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WILL OCCUR. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV
MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THIS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE BEST
LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IT WILL REMAIN DRY. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV
MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE MAY AFFECT THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EARLY
AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONLY AGS IS
HAVING ANY ISSUES WITH EARLY MORNING FOG THIS MORNING...WITH BRIEF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND 12Z-13Z. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER DAYBREAK.
IFR/MVFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AT AGS AND OGB...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 240952
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
552 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY BUT HIGH CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WILL OCCUR. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV
MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THIS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE BEST
LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IT WILL REMAIN DRY. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV
MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE MAY AFFECT THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EARLY
AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONLY AGS IS
HAVING ANY ISSUES WITH EARLY MORNING FOG THIS MORNING...WITH BRIEF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND 12Z-13Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER DAYBREAK.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 240903
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
503 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY BUT HIGH CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WILL OCCUR. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV
MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THIS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE BEST
LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IT WILL REMAIN DRY. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV
MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE MAY AFFECT THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EARLY
AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
SO FOG NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER DAYBREAK.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 240803
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
403 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SE INTO THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION.
PATCHES OF THICKER CIRROSTRATUS NOTED ON 3.9 MICRON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING ANY FURTHER EARLY
THIS MORNING AND IN A FEW INSTANCES...READINGS MAY RISE A DEGREE
OR TWO.

A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING
AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIG OUT UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF...FLORIDA/GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS BY LATE TONIGHT. DESPITE THE
PVA THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS BONE DRY THROUGH DEEP LAYERS WITH PWATS
1/2 INCH OR LESS. BOUTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST
COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS FOR A SHORT WHILE TONIGHT OVER
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AS THE STRONGER OF THE VORTS ROLLS THROUGH.

TODAY...DIFFICULT TO TELL IF HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL BE ENOUGH
TO TAKE A DEGREE OR SO OFF HIGH TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WE
MAINTAINED A FORECAST HIGH TEMP SCHEME OF MID 70S WITH SOME UPPER
70S POSSIBLE. A WEAK PRES PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THIS EVENING...POSITIVE 700 MB OMEGA AND ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME POCKETS OF MID LAYERED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA WITH BUILDING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
OVERNIGHT AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE
COULD BE A SLUGGISH DIURNAL CURVE TO TEMPS DURING THE EVENING BUT
READINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL AT A BETTER CLIP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES DURING THE PERIOD WHILE AT THE SURFACE DRY HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. AS THE 850 MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES ON SUNDAY...A WEAK...DRY FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL
YIELD A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 40S...THEN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST
WE WILL SEE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S LOWS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS MID-WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY SET UP
OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
REGARDING AN UPPER VORT DROPPING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE ARE HINTS AT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS DO NOT LOOK VERY MOIST SO WE CURRENTLY ONLY SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TODAY AS A WEAK PRES PATTERN RESIDES OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH WEAK
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...A LATE NIGHT SURGE MAY APPROACH 15
KT BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT FROM THE NORTH NEAR
SHORE NEARING DAYBREAK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL







000
FXUS62 KFFC 240734
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
334 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SHORTWAVE EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH LITTLE IMPACT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...WITH SUNNIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AS
CLOUDY CONDITIONS DIMINISH. WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

31


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
STILL PROGGING SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WITH THE FEATURE...SO HAVE
PRETTY MUCH GONE PERSISTENCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DID
ADD SOME SLIGHT POPS FOR EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE 500MB TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.

OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES. MIN AND MAX TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA


&&


AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALIZED
MVFR OR LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE...BUT OVERNIGHT HIGH CIRRUS SHOULD
PREVENT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY
NORTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS. BRIEF PERIODS OF VRB WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  47  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         72  53  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     70  41  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    72  45  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        75  52  78  53 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     71  50  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           76  45  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            72  46  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  73  43  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         76  52  78  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...31






000
FXUS62 KFFC 240654
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
254 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST GRIDS THIS EVENING...
MAINLY TO SKY COVER AS AMPLE CIRRUS CONTINUES SPILLING OVER THE
REGION. OVERALL SKY-COVER IS HIGH BUT STILL SOMEWHAT THIN AT TIMES.
ENOUGH CHANGES TO MERIT RE-RUNNING THE TEXT AND TABULAR FORECAST
PRODUCTS.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT LITTLE IMPACT.
MAIN CHANGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER THAT...CLOUDS SHOULD
DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS WE TRANSITION FROM THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER. AS A RESULT...NO FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CWA TONIGHT. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS ABOUT THREE TO FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL
PLEASANT WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

11

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 318 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE CWFA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT. QPF IS PROGGED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE ALSO PROGGING SOME
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF
THE MID-WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALIZED
MVFR OR LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE...BUT OVERNIGHT HIGH CIRRUS SHOULD
PREVENT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY
NORTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS. BRIEF PERIODS OF VRB WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  47  75  49 /   0   0   0   5
ATLANTA         72  52  75  53 /   0   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     69  41  70  47 /   0   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    72  43  75  49 /   0   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        75  50  78  50 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     71  50  73  49 /   0   0   0   5
MACON           76  45  76  48 /   0   0   0   5
ROME            72  45  76  48 /   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  72  43  76  47 /   0   0   0   5
VIDALIA         75  50  77  51 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...31






000
FXUS62 KCAE 240521
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
121 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY BUT HIGH CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WILL OCCUR. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV
MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THIS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE BEST
LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IT WILL REMAIN DRY. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV
MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE MAY AFFECT THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EARLY
AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
SO FOG NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER DAYBREAK.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 240457
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1257 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES FELL QUICKLY LAST EVENING UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THIS IS LIKELY TO END SOON AS FAIRLY THICK
CIRRUS IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. MINOR TWEAKS TO INITIAL TEMPS WITH SOME RURAL INLAND AREAS
RUNNING COLDER THAN FORECAST LOWS AT MIDNIGHT. READINGS SHOULD
LEVEL OUT AND PERHAPS RISE A BIT LATE AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POPS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY ZERO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE 23/12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
DEEPENING/ POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH...LOW/MID LEVELS REMAIN
VERY DRY. THUS...THE TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL.
EVEN SO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S WELL
INLAND TO MID 50S ON THE BEACHES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TYPICALLY COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S...WARMEST ON THE BEACHES. GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF LOW/MID
LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS HINTS AT A WEAKENING/DRY COLD FRONT SLIPPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THUS...THIS WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN THE VICINITY BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
N TO NW WINDS OF 5-10 KT WITH SEAS 1-2 FT WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
PRIMARILY MODULATED BY THE POSITION...STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS. NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BRIEFLY SURGE TO
10-15 KT SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE AND THE
SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY PM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS
10 KT OR LESS GIVING WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS NORTH
OF THE WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 240457
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1257 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES FELL QUICKLY LAST EVENING UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THIS IS LIKELY TO END SOON AS FAIRLY THICK
CIRRUS IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. MINOR TWEAKS TO INITIAL TEMPS WITH SOME RURAL INLAND AREAS
RUNNING COLDER THAN FORECAST LOWS AT MIDNIGHT. READINGS SHOULD
LEVEL OUT AND PERHAPS RISE A BIT LATE AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POPS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY ZERO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE 23/12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
DEEPENING/ POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH...LOW/MID LEVELS REMAIN
VERY DRY. THUS...THE TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL.
EVEN SO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S WELL
INLAND TO MID 50S ON THE BEACHES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TYPICALLY COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S...WARMEST ON THE BEACHES. GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF LOW/MID
LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS HINTS AT A WEAKENING/DRY COLD FRONT SLIPPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THUS...THIS WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN THE VICINITY BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
N TO NW WINDS OF 5-10 KT WITH SEAS 1-2 FT WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
PRIMARILY MODULATED BY THE POSITION...STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS. NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BRIEFLY SURGE TO
10-15 KT SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE AND THE
SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY PM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS
10 KT OR LESS GIVING WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS NORTH
OF THE WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 240139
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
939 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING QUICKLY UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THIS IS LIKELY TO END SOON AS FAIRLY THICK
CIRRUS IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WARMER
OVERNIGHT LOWS WHICH HAS BEEN A TREND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...SO
OUR LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. IT
WILL STILL BE A RATHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S
INLAND WITH LOWER-MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THESE VALUES ARE STILL ABOUT A FULL CATEGORY
LOWER THAN THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND H3R MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POPS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY ZERO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE 23/12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
DEEPENING/ POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH...LOW/MID LEVELS REMAIN
VERY DRY. THUS...THE TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL.
EVEN SO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S WELL
INLAND TO MID 50S ON THE BEACHES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TYPICALLY COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S...WARMEST ON THE BEACHES. GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF LOW/MID
LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS HINTS AT A WEAKENING/DRY COLD FRONT SLIPPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THUS...THIS WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN THE VICINITY BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AND DIMINISH OVER THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. N/NW WINDS OF 5-10 KT WITH SEAS 1-2 FT WILL PREVAIL.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
PRIMARILY MODULATED BY THE POSITION...STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS. NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BRIEFLY SURGE TO
10-15 KT SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE AND THE
SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY PM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS
10 KT OR LESS GIVING WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS NORTH
OF THE WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KFFC 240123 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
923 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST GRIDS THIS EVENING...
MAINLY TO SKY COVER AS AMPLE CIRRUS CONTINUES SPILLING OVER THE
REGION. OVERALL SKY-COVER IS HIGH BUT STILL SOMEWHAT THIN AT TIMES.
ENOUGH CHANGES TO MERIT RE-RUNNING THE TEXT AND TABULAR FORECAST
PRODUCTS.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT LITTLE IMPACT.
MAIN CHANGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER THAT...CLOUDS SHOULD
DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS WE TRANSITION FROM THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER. AS A RESULT...NO FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CWA TONIGHT. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS ABOUT THREE TO FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL
PLEASANT WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

11

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 318 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE CWFA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT. QPF IS PROGGED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE ALSO PROGGING SOME
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF
THE MID-WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NLISTEMAA

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
ONCE AGAIN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 04Z-14Z...
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS AT THE TAF
SITES. AMPLE HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION BUT
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR BELOW 12KFT OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF
FOG. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...GENERALLY 6KT
OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          43  73  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         48  72  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     40  69  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    41  72  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        47  75  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     46  71  50  73 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           41  76  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            42  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  39  72  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         48  75  50  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20






000
FXUS62 KCAE 232333
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
733 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CAROLINAS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DEW POINTS REMAIN LOW
AND POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ADVECT EAST TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. STAYED CLOSE TO MOS
TEMPERATURES BUT IT MAY BE COOLER ESPECIALLY IN SOME OUTLYING
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH NEUTRAL 850MB TEMPERATURE ADVECTION BUT
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
WARM UP. CONTINUED WARMING TREND SATURDAY AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. BUT
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS AIR MASS BECOMES
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
SO FOG NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH DAYBREAK.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 232324 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
725 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT LITTLE IMPACT.
MAIN CHANGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER THAT...CLOUDS SHOULD
DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS WE TRANSITION FROM THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER. AS A RESULT...NO FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CWA TONIGHT. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS ABOUT THREE TO FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL
PLEASANT WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

11


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 318 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE CWFA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT. QPF IS PROGGED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE ALSO PROGGING SOME
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF
THE MID-WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
ONCE AGAIN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 04Z-14Z...
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS AT THE TAF
SITES. AMPLE HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION BUT
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR BELOW 12KFT OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF
FOG. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...GENERALLY 6KT
OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          43  73  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         48  72  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     40  69  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    41  72  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        47  75  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     46  71  50  73 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           41  76  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            42  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  39  72  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         48  75  50  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11









000
FXUS62 KCHS 232257
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
657 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE PEAKED FOR THE AREA JUST BEFORE SUNSET
AND IT WAS SPECTACULAR. NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET...EXPECT A RAPID
DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY
THIS EVENING UNDER NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...BUT
THERE IS SOME CONCERN UPSTREAM CIRRUS WILL BE THICK ENOUGH TO
DISRUPT THE RADIATIVE PROCESS FROM MIDNIGHT ON AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SUPPORT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY FROM ROUGHLY 2 AM UNTIL
SUNRISE FRIDAY...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT TOO COOL
BASED ON THIS DATA. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST JUST YET...BUT LOWS MAY VERY WELL NEED TO BE
RAISED WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE AFTER A FEW MORE HIGH
RESOLUTION DATA SETS ARE RECEIVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POPS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY ZERO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE 23/12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
DEEPENING/ POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH...LOW/MID LEVELS REMAIN
VERY DRY. THUS...THE TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL.
EVEN SO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S WELL
INLAND TO MID 50S ON THE BEACHES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TYPICALLY COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S...WARMEST ON THE BEACHES. GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF LOW/MID
LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS HINTS AT A WEAKENING/DRY COLD FRONT SLIPPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THUS...THIS WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN THE VICINITY BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE
WATERS. NORTHWEST FLOW AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES
EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...RANGING BETWEEN 1-2 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
PRIMARILY MODULATED BY THE POSITION...STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS. NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BRIEFLY SURGE TO
10-15 KT SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE AND THE
SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY PM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS
10 KT OR LESS GIVING WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS NORTH
OF THE WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 231922
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
322 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION WHILE A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LVL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS FURTHER
OFF THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD. AS A RESULT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS
ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WILL DEAL WITH LOW TEMPS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COULD MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CLOUD-FREE SKY...WHICH LIKELY SUPPORTS DECOUPLING WINDS EARLY
TONIGHT AND FAIR TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE
LOW 40S INLAND WHERE DECOUPLING IS ANTICIPATED FIRST...AND INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POPS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY ZERO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE 23/12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
DEEPENING/ POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH...LOW/MID LEVELS REMAIN
VERY DRY. THUS...THE TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL.
EVEN SO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S WELL
INLAND TO MID 50S ON THE BEACHES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TYPICALLY COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S...WARMEST ON THE BEACHES. GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF LOW/MID
LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS HINTS AT A WEAKENING/DRY COLD FRONT SLIPPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THUS...THIS WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN THE VICINITY BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE
WATERS. NORTHWEST FLOW AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES
EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...RANGING BETWEEN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
PRIMARILY MODULATED BY THE POSITION...STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS. NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BRIEFLY SURGE TO
10-15 KT SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE AND THE
SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY PM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS
10 KT OR LESS GIVING WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS NORTH
OF THE WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...DPB/SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 231922
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
322 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION WHILE A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LVL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS FURTHER
OFF THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD. AS A RESULT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS
ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WILL DEAL WITH LOW TEMPS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COULD MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CLOUD-FREE SKY...WHICH LIKELY SUPPORTS DECOUPLING WINDS EARLY
TONIGHT AND FAIR TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE
LOW 40S INLAND WHERE DECOUPLING IS ANTICIPATED FIRST...AND INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POPS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY ZERO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE 23/12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
DEEPENING/ POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH...LOW/MID LEVELS REMAIN
VERY DRY. THUS...THE TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL.
EVEN SO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S WELL
INLAND TO MID 50S ON THE BEACHES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TYPICALLY COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S...WARMEST ON THE BEACHES. GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF LOW/MID
LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS HINTS AT A WEAKENING/DRY COLD FRONT SLIPPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THUS...THIS WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN THE VICINITY BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE
WATERS. NORTHWEST FLOW AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES
EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...RANGING BETWEEN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
PRIMARILY MODULATED BY THE POSITION...STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS. NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BRIEFLY SURGE TO
10-15 KT SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE AND THE
SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY PM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS
10 KT OR LESS GIVING WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS NORTH
OF THE WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...DPB/SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR







000
FXUS62 KFFC 231904
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
304 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT LITTLE IMPACT.
MAIN CHANGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER THAT...CLOUDS SHOULD
DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS WE TRANSITION FROM THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER. AS A RESULT...NO FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CWA TONIGHT. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS ABOUT THREE TO FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL
PLEASANT WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

11


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 318 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE CWFA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT. QPF IS PROGGED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE ALSO PROGGING SOME
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF
THE MID-WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN200-250. WINDS ARE ON THE
WEST SIDE AT ATL AND WILL BECOME NEAR ZERO OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT VRB BUT PREDOMINATELY
ON THE WEST SIDE AT ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          43  73  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         48  72  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     40  69  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    41  72  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        47  75  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     46  71  50  73 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           41  76  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            42  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  39  72  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         48  75  50  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11






000
FXUS62 KFFC 231904
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
304 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT LITTLE IMPACT.
MAIN CHANGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER THAT...CLOUDS SHOULD
DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS WE TRANSITION FROM THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER. AS A RESULT...NO FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CWA TONIGHT. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS ABOUT THREE TO FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL
PLEASANT WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

11


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 318 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE CWFA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT. QPF IS PROGGED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE ALSO PROGGING SOME
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF
THE MID-WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN200-250. WINDS ARE ON THE
WEST SIDE AT ATL AND WILL BECOME NEAR ZERO OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT VRB BUT PREDOMINATELY
ON THE WEST SIDE AT ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          43  73  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         48  72  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     40  69  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    41  72  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        47  75  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     46  71  50  73 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           41  76  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            42  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  39  72  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         48  75  50  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11






000
FXUS62 KCAE 231822
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
222 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CAROLINAS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DEW POINTS REMAIN LOW
AND POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ADVECT EAST TOWARD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
STAYED CLOSE TO MOS TEMPERATURES BUT IT MAY BE COOLER ESPECIALLY IN
SOME OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH NEUTRAL 850MB TEMPERATURE ADVECTION BUT
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
WARM UP. CONTINUED WARMING TREND SATURDAY AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. BUT
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS AIR MASS BECOMES
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED MAINLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WITH DRY AIR MASS SO FOG NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 231822
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
222 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CAROLINAS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DEW POINTS REMAIN LOW
AND POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ADVECT EAST TOWARD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
STAYED CLOSE TO MOS TEMPERATURES BUT IT MAY BE COOLER ESPECIALLY IN
SOME OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH NEUTRAL 850MB TEMPERATURE ADVECTION BUT
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
WARM UP. CONTINUED WARMING TREND SATURDAY AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. BUT
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS AIR MASS BECOMES
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED MAINLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WITH DRY AIR MASS SO FOG NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 231754 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
154 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1103 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/
A FEW SPOTS WITH LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR NE GEORGIA
BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON. IT WAS A CHILLY START TO
THE MORNING BUT WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTH TO
THE MID 70S ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR HOURLY TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHILLY START THIS MORNING AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST LIKELY WAKING UP TO PATCHY FROST AND MANY OTHERS IN NORTH
GEORGIA IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY TODAY
UNDER AGAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMS.

GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES OF SHORT TERM AS
RIDGING QUICKLY WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW
PUSHES FARTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. GRADIENT WINDS
SHOULD BE LESS TODAY AND FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A BRIEF ZONAL
PERIOD AHEAD OF A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT DRY FORECAST AS THERMAL PROFILES ONLY SHOWING
SOME UPPER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE SO HAVE
JUST ENHANCED SOME CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH.

THOUGH STILL LOOKING COOL TONIGHT...VALUES SHOULD BE A BIT TOO WARM
FOR FROST CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IF SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAKE IT IN FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. FRIDAY HIGHS
RETURNING BACK NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF AREA.

BAKER

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 318 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE CWFA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT. QPF IS PROGGED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE ALSO PROGGING SOME
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF
THE MID-WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN200-250. WINDS ARE ON THE
WEST SIDE AT ATL AND WILL BECOME NEAR ZERO OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT VRB BUT PREDOMINATELY
ON THE WEST SIDE AT ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  43  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         69  49  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     67  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    68  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        71  47  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     68  46  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           72  41  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            69  42  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  70  39  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         72  48  75  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11






000
FXUS62 KFFC 231754 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
154 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1103 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/
A FEW SPOTS WITH LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR NE GEORGIA
BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON. IT WAS A CHILLY START TO
THE MORNING BUT WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTH TO
THE MID 70S ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR HOURLY TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHILLY START THIS MORNING AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST LIKELY WAKING UP TO PATCHY FROST AND MANY OTHERS IN NORTH
GEORGIA IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY TODAY
UNDER AGAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMS.

GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES OF SHORT TERM AS
RIDGING QUICKLY WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW
PUSHES FARTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. GRADIENT WINDS
SHOULD BE LESS TODAY AND FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A BRIEF ZONAL
PERIOD AHEAD OF A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT DRY FORECAST AS THERMAL PROFILES ONLY SHOWING
SOME UPPER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE SO HAVE
JUST ENHANCED SOME CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH.

THOUGH STILL LOOKING COOL TONIGHT...VALUES SHOULD BE A BIT TOO WARM
FOR FROST CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IF SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAKE IT IN FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. FRIDAY HIGHS
RETURNING BACK NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF AREA.

BAKER

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 318 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE CWFA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT. QPF IS PROGGED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE ALSO PROGGING SOME
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF
THE MID-WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN200-250. WINDS ARE ON THE
WEST SIDE AT ATL AND WILL BECOME NEAR ZERO OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT VRB BUT PREDOMINATELY
ON THE WEST SIDE AT ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  43  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         69  49  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     67  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    68  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        71  47  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     68  46  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           72  41  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            69  42  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  70  39  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         72  48  75  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11






000
FXUS62 KCHS 231715
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
115 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
AS A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LVL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS FURTHER OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST. AS A RESULT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED
IN REGARDS TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN...BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BACK TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FULL SUN DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ALONG WITH A WEAK DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...INLAND AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS COULD KEEP GOING INTO THE
NIGHT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...INCLUDING BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST OF U.S. 17 WITH
SOME NORMALLY COLDER RURAL/INLAND AREAS NEARING 40 DEGREES BY DAWN
ON THURSDAY. LOW MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AWAY FROM THE
OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SHALLOW/WEAK RIDGE WILL START THE DAY...THEN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THE STRENGTH...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. EITHER WAY...EXPECT THIS UPPER TROUGH TO
COME THROUGH DRY DUE TO VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE PERFECT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE STILL GOING MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
WEST-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. CONTINUED DRY WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER
THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WHILE A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FIELD REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR A CUTOFF LOW POSITIONED OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX TONIGHT WITH
A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FT OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...DPB/RFM
MARINE...DPB/RFM







000
FXUS62 KCHS 231715
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
115 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
AS A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LVL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS FURTHER OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST. AS A RESULT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED
IN REGARDS TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN...BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BACK TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FULL SUN DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ALONG WITH A WEAK DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...INLAND AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS COULD KEEP GOING INTO THE
NIGHT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...INCLUDING BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST OF U.S. 17 WITH
SOME NORMALLY COLDER RURAL/INLAND AREAS NEARING 40 DEGREES BY DAWN
ON THURSDAY. LOW MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AWAY FROM THE
OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SHALLOW/WEAK RIDGE WILL START THE DAY...THEN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THE STRENGTH...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. EITHER WAY...EXPECT THIS UPPER TROUGH TO
COME THROUGH DRY DUE TO VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE PERFECT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE STILL GOING MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
WEST-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. CONTINUED DRY WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER
THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WHILE A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FIELD REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR A CUTOFF LOW POSITIONED OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX TONIGHT WITH
A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FT OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...DPB/RFM
MARINE...DPB/RFM







000
FXUS62 KFFC 231503 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1103 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
A FEW SPOTS WITH LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR NE GEORGIA
BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON. IT WAS A CHILLY START TO THE
MORNING BUT WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR HOURLY TRENDS.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHILLY START THIS MORNING AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST LIKELY WAKING UP TO PATCHY FROST AND MANY OTHERS IN NORTH
GEORGIA IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY TODAY
UNDER AGAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMS.

GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES OF SHORT TERM AS
RIDGING QUICKLY WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW
PUSHES FARTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. GRADIENT WINDS
SHOULD BE LESS TODAY AND FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A BRIEF ZONAL
PERIOD AHEAD OF A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT DRY FORECAST AS THERMAL PROFILES ONLY SHOWING
SOME UPPER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE SO HAVE
JUST ENHANCED SOME CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH.

THOUGH STILL LOOKING COOL TONIGHT...VALUES SHOULD BE A BIT TOO WARM
FOR FROST CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IF SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAKE IT IN FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. FRIDAY HIGHS
RETURNING BACK NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF AREA.

BAKER

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 318 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE CWFA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT. QPF IS PROGGED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE ALSO PROGGING SOME
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF
THE MID-WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NLISTEMAA

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 736 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY NW AT 7
KTS OR LESS TODAY THOUGH SOME WINDS MAY MIX DOWN STRONGER AND OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST NEAR MIDDAY FOR THE NORTHERN SITES. MAGNITUDES
DECREASING TO LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME
CIRRUS GRADUALLY FILTERING IN TODAY WITH GREATEST COVERAGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY THEN CLEARING AGAIN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MIDDAY WINDS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  43  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         69  49  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     67  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    68  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        71  47  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     68  46  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           72  41  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            69  42  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  70  39  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         72  48  75  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11






000
FXUS62 KCHS 231430
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1030 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER THE
REGION WHILE A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LVL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST. AS A RESULT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN
REGARDS TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN...BUT WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK
TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FULL SUN DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING WIND
COMPONENT SUPPORTS TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. LATEST
1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...INLAND AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS COULD KEEP GOING INTO THE
NIGHT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...INCLUDING BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST OF U.S. 17
WITH SOME NORMALLY COLDER RURAL/INLAND AREAS NEARING 40 DEGREES BY
DAWN ON THURSDAY. LOW MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AWAY FROM
THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SHALLOW/WEAK RIDGE WILL START THE DAY...THEN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THE STRENGTH...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. EITHER WAY...EXPECT THIS UPPER TROUGH TO
COME THROUGH DRY DUE TO VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE PERFECT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE STILL GOING MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
WEST-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. CONTINUED DRY WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE WATERS FROM
THE NORTHWEST. IN GENERAL...NORTH FLOW AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS AN ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT FIELD SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A CUTOFF LOW
THAT BECOMES POSITIONED FURTHER OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. SEAS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX TONIGHT WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN
IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FT OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB/RFM







000
FXUS62 KCHS 231430
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1030 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER THE
REGION WHILE A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LVL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST. AS A RESULT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN
REGARDS TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN...BUT WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK
TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FULL SUN DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING WIND
COMPONENT SUPPORTS TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. LATEST
1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...INLAND AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS COULD KEEP GOING INTO THE
NIGHT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...INCLUDING BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST OF U.S. 17
WITH SOME NORMALLY COLDER RURAL/INLAND AREAS NEARING 40 DEGREES BY
DAWN ON THURSDAY. LOW MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AWAY FROM
THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SHALLOW/WEAK RIDGE WILL START THE DAY...THEN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THE STRENGTH...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. EITHER WAY...EXPECT THIS UPPER TROUGH TO
COME THROUGH DRY DUE TO VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE PERFECT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE STILL GOING MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
WEST-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. CONTINUED DRY WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE WATERS FROM
THE NORTHWEST. IN GENERAL...NORTH FLOW AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS AN ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT FIELD SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A CUTOFF LOW
THAT BECOMES POSITIONED FURTHER OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. SEAS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX TONIGHT WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN
IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FT OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB/RFM







000
FXUS62 KFFC 231136
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHILLY START THIS MORNING AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST LIKELY WAKING UP TO PATCHY FROST AND MANY OTHERS IN NORTH
GEORGIA IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY TODAY
UNDER AGAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMS.

GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES OF SHORT TERM AS
RIDGING QUICKLY WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW
PUSHES FARTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. GRADIENT WINDS
SHOULD BE LESS TODAY AND FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A BRIEF ZONAL
PERIOD AHEAD OF A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT DRY FORECAST AS THERMAL PROFILES ONLY SHOWING
SOME UPPER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE SO HAVE
JUST ENHANCED SOME CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH.

THOUGH STILL LOOKING COOL TONIGHT...VALUES SHOULD BE A BIT TOO WARM
FOR FROST CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IF SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAKE IT IN FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. FRIDAY HIGHS
RETURNING BACK NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF AREA.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE CWFA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT. QPF IS PROGGED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE ALSO PROGGING SOME
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF
THE MID-WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY NW AT 7
KTS OR LESS TODAY THOUGH SOME WINDS MAY MIX DOWN STRONGER AND OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST NEAR MIDDAY FOR THE NORTHERN SITES. MAGNITUDES
DECREASING TO LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME
CIRRUS GRADUALLY FILTERING IN TODAY WITH GREATEST COVERAGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY THEN CLEARING AGAIN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MIDDAY WINDS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  43  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         69  49  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     67  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    68  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        71  47  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     68  46  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           72  41  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            69  42  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  70  39  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         72  48  75  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KCHS 231107
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
706 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY... FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO BE
DICTATED BY THE DEEP CUT-OFF LOW PRES OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...A FLATTENING
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OVER THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED
BY AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH LATE TONIGHT...REACHING THE
GULF COAST REGION BY DAYBREAK ON FRI. A DEEP LAYERED DRY
ATMOSPHERE IS ON TAP TODAY WITH A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
PRODUCING SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 70
DEGREES...REACHING MAX VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS COULD BE MOVING IN BY LATE DAY PERHAPS
PRODUCING SOME NICE SUNSETS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BUT WE THINK MOST OF THE CLOUDS COULD BE THIN.
RADIATIONAL COOLING PARAMETERS LOOK STRONG BUT WITH THE QUESTION
OF HIGH CLOUD COVER OPACITY...WE MADE FEW/MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR
LOW TEMP SCHEME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SHALLOW/WEAK RIDGE WILL START THE DAY...THEN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THE STRENGTH...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. EITHER WAY...EXPECT THIS UPPER TROUGH TO
COME THROUGH DRY DUE TO VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE PERFECT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE STILL GOING MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
WEST-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. CONTINUED DRY WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.

&&

.MARINE...
DECENT MIXING ONGOING OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH 15 KT OF
WIND FROM A GENERALLY NORTHERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING. N
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE
WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO RELAX INTO TONIGHT WITH A WEAKER PRES PATTERN
DEVELOPING AND SURFACE HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FT OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...
MARINE...RFM







000
FXUS62 KCAE 231031
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
631 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION...WHILE AT
THE SURFACE WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER COOL START TO THE MORNING IS ON TAP
AGAIN TODAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH...AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 70
DEGREES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING DRY. LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI
MORNING...BRINGING LOWS ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST...PROVIDING A
CONTINUED DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK DRY REINFORCING FRONT EXPECTED
TO COME LATE SAT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE
DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND CLEAR SKIES. MODERATE WINDS JUST OFF
THE DECK AS SHOWN IN THE KCAE WIND PROFILE. 2000FT WINDS AROUND
35-40 KT. WILL KEEP LLWS THROUGH AROUND 13Z AT KCAE. WINDS THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST UNDER
10KT WITH GOOD VFR. SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS MAY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS STATES...BUT HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE
OUT FOR NOW.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 231008
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
608 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION...WHILE AT
THE SURFACE WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER COOL START TO THE MORNING IS ON TAP
AGAIN TODAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH...AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 70
DEGREES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING DRY. LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI
MORNING...BRINGING LOWS ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST...PROVIDING A
CONTINUED DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK DRY REINFORCING FRONT EXPECTED
TO COME LATE SAT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE
DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND CLEAR SKIES. NO FOG WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK AS SHOWN IN THE KCAE WIND PROFILE.
2000FT WINDS AROUND 35-40 KT. HAVE INTRODUCED LLWS FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AT KCAE GIVEN LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND STRONG WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 231008
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
608 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION...WHILE AT
THE SURFACE WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER COOL START TO THE MORNING IS ON TAP
AGAIN TODAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH...AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 70
DEGREES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING DRY. LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI
MORNING...BRINGING LOWS ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST...PROVIDING A
CONTINUED DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK DRY REINFORCING FRONT EXPECTED
TO COME LATE SAT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE
DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND CLEAR SKIES. NO FOG WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK AS SHOWN IN THE KCAE WIND PROFILE.
2000FT WINDS AROUND 35-40 KT. HAVE INTRODUCED LLWS FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AT KCAE GIVEN LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND STRONG WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCHS 230808
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
408 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY... FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS.
THERE IS BIT A LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IN SOME AREAS...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND KEEPING TEMPS FROM
RADIATING LIKE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS. BY DAWN...MOST AREAS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH LOCALLY COLDER SPOTS NOTED WELL
INLAND.

THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO BE DICTATED
BY THE DEEP CUT-OFF LOW PRES OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OVER THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH LATE TONIGHT...REACHING THE GULF
COAST REGION BY DAYBREAK ON FRI. A DEEP LAYERED DRY ATMOSPHERE IS
ON TAP TODAY WITH A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR MASS PRODUCING
SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 70 DEGREES...REACHING
MAX VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW THIN HIGH
CLOUDS COULD BE MOVING IN BY LATE DAY PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME NICE
SUNSETS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BUT WE THINK MOST OF THE CLOUDS COULD BE THIN.
RADIATIONAL COOLING PARAMETERS LOOK STRONG BUT WITH THE QUESTION
OF HIGH CLOUD COVER OPACITY...WE MADE FEW/MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR
LOW TEMP SCHEME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SHALLOW/WEAK RIDGE WILL START THE DAY...THEN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THE STRENGTH...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. EITHER WAY...EXPECT THIS UPPER TROUGH TO
COME THROUGH DRY DUE TO VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE PERFECT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE STILL GOING MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
WEST-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. CONTINUED DRY WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.

&&

.MARINE...
DECENT MIXING ONGOING OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH CLOSE TO
15 KT OF WIND FROM A GENERALLY NORTHERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS
MORNING. N FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO RELAX INTO TONIGHT WITH A WEAKER PRES PATTERN DEVELOPING
AND SURFACE HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FT OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...
MARINE...RFM







000
FXUS62 KCHS 230808
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
408 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY... FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS.
THERE IS BIT A LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IN SOME AREAS...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND KEEPING TEMPS FROM
RADIATING LIKE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS. BY DAWN...MOST AREAS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH LOCALLY COLDER SPOTS NOTED WELL
INLAND.

THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO BE DICTATED
BY THE DEEP CUT-OFF LOW PRES OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OVER THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH LATE TONIGHT...REACHING THE GULF
COAST REGION BY DAYBREAK ON FRI. A DEEP LAYERED DRY ATMOSPHERE IS
ON TAP TODAY WITH A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR MASS PRODUCING
SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 70 DEGREES...REACHING
MAX VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW THIN HIGH
CLOUDS COULD BE MOVING IN BY LATE DAY PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME NICE
SUNSETS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BUT WE THINK MOST OF THE CLOUDS COULD BE THIN.
RADIATIONAL COOLING PARAMETERS LOOK STRONG BUT WITH THE QUESTION
OF HIGH CLOUD COVER OPACITY...WE MADE FEW/MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR
LOW TEMP SCHEME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SHALLOW/WEAK RIDGE WILL START THE DAY...THEN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THE STRENGTH...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. EITHER WAY...EXPECT THIS UPPER TROUGH TO
COME THROUGH DRY DUE TO VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE PERFECT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE STILL GOING MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
WEST-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. CONTINUED DRY WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.

&&

.MARINE...
DECENT MIXING ONGOING OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH CLOSE TO
15 KT OF WIND FROM A GENERALLY NORTHERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS
MORNING. N FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO RELAX INTO TONIGHT WITH A WEAKER PRES PATTERN DEVELOPING
AND SURFACE HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FT OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...
MARINE...RFM







000
FXUS62 KFFC 230718
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
318 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHILLY START THIS MORNING AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST LIKELY WAKING UP TO PATCHY FROST AND MANY OTHERS IN NORTH
GEORGIA IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY TODAY
UNDER AGAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMS.

GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES OF SHORT TERM AS
RIDGING QUICKLY WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW
PUSHES FARTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. GRADIENT WINDS
SHOULD BE LESS TODAY AND FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A BRIEF ZONAL
PERIOD AHEAD OF A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT DRY FORECAST AS THERMAL PROFILES ONLY SHOWING
SOME UPPER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE SO HAVE
JUST ENHANCED SOME CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH.

THOUGH STILL LOOKING COOL TONIGHT...VALUES SHOULD BE A BIT TOO WARM
FOR FROST CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IF SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAKE IT IN FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. FRIDAY HIGHS
RETURNING BACK NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF AREA.

BAKER


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE CWFA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT. QPF IS PROGGED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE ALSO PROGGING SOME
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF
THE MID-WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NLISTEMAA


&&



AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY FOR KMCN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
SOME CIRRUS BUILDING IN LATE IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE NW WINDS 7
KTS OR LESS FOR MOST SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  43  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         69  49  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     67  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    68  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        71  47  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     68  46  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           72  41  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            69  42  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  70  39  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         72  48  75  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KFFC 230630
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
230 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

.UPDATE...
DECIDED TO INCLUDE GILMER COUNTY IN THE FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT.
COVERAGE OF TEMPERATURES IS SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE ENOUGH AREAS THAT
MAY SEE SOME FROST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTY...TO INCLUDE IT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE CWA IS UNDER NW
FLOW INITIALLY WITH RIDGING OVER THE MS VALLEY AND A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. THESE CONDITIONS...ALONG
WITH NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE AREA IS MUCH DRIER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY IN
TERMS OF PW VALUES AND THE NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PERSIST...DID
NOT GO AS COLD AS THE LOWER GUIDANCE VALUES OR EVEN A
BLEND...TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE
THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT BIAS TOWARDS BEING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT.
THIS RESULTED IN VALUES DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS FAR NE
GEORGIA. WITH THE CALM WINDS AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...EXPECT
FROST ACROSS THAT AREA AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
FIVE COUNTIES ACROSS THE FAR NE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. COULD STILL SEE PATCHY FROST ACROSS OTHER ISOLATED AREAS IN
NORTH GEORGIA.

AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY SHIFTS EAST AND THE NW FLOW BEINGS
TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM A COUPLE DEGREES COMPARED
TO TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...LOWS ONLY DIP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S SO AT THIS POINT JUST A TAD TOO WARM FOR FROST
FRIDAY MORNING.

11

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...BUT TWO COLD
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT GA DURING THE PERIOD. AN EARLY WEEKEND
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS CURRENTLY HAVE THE COLDEST MIN TEMPS.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...IF TEMPS ARE COLDER THEN
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR THE NORTHEAST GA MTNS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY FOR KMCN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
SOME CIRRUS BUILDING IN LATE IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE NW WINDS 7
KTS OR LESS FOR MOST SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  43  71  47 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         70  48  70  48 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     67  40  67  42 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    68  39  70  46 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        72  46  74  48 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     69  46  70  49 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           72  41  75  45 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            69  41  71  45 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  70  39  72  44 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         72  48  75  50 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11/20
LONG TERM...NLISTEMAA/17
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KCAE 230623
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
223 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...WINDS GENERALLY BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE
NORTH. SHOULD SEE WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND DRY AIR MASS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL BE
COMMON BY SUNRISE.

TODAY...MAIN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WHILE AT THE SURFACE WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ONCE
AGAIN...BUT WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH...AFTERNOON
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 70 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING DRY. LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI
MORNING...BRINGING LOWS ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST...PROVIDING A
CONTINUED DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK DRY REINFORCING FRONT EXPECTED
TO COME LATE SAT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE
DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND CLEAR SKIES. NO FOG WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK AS SHOWN IN THE KCAE WIND PROFILE.
2000FT WINDS AROUND 35-40 KT. HAVE INTRODUCED LLWS FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AT KCAE GIVEN LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND STRONG WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCHS 230514
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
114 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY MORE
HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING
FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH DEEP DRY AIR SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR AND THE FORECAST IS VERY QUIET THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE LOW TEMPERATURES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 2 MB ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AIDED BY A WEAK NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW. LOWS HAVE BEEN
NUDGED DOWN IN SOME OF THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS BASED ON THE COOP
MOS. EXPECT LOWER 40S INLAND WITH MID TO UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S ON THU. LOWS WILL CONTINUE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...
FALLING INTO THE MID 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS
PWAT VALUES REMAIN BELOW 0.5 INCHES. UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON FRI
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY WITHIN THE CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS...NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. FRI WILL FEATURE MORE SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACQUIRES A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT...HIGHS ON SAT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S. LOWS ON FRI
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY THEN START TO
DIVERGE. A SPRAWLING DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AND THEN MOVES JUST OFF SHORE BY LATER MONDAY AS AN ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS NEXT TROUGH IS WHERE
THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE FULL LATITUDE IN
ITS EXTENT BY TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER...HOLDING
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WELL NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ODDLY...
MODELS COME BACK TO CLOSER AGREEMENT BY WEDNESDAY AS BOTH SHOW A
BROAD TROUGH/NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND A
DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEPARTING OVER THE ATLANTIC. THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH TD9...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE LARGELY DOMINATES. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO ADVECT BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE COASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME ORIENTED NORTH/SOUTH BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINLY BE IN THE 10-15 KT
RANGE...EXCEPT A SOLID 15 KT BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS 2-3 FT WITHIN 20
NM AND 3-4 FT BEYOND.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT MAINLY 2-3 FT SEAS ON THU WITH
NORTH WINDS 10-15 KT. COULD SEE SOME 3-4 FT SEAS IN THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THU. AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES FRI INTO SAT...
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MON. NO HEADLINES OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 230508
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
108 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY KEEPING LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. WIND
NEAR CALM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK. SHOULD SEE WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND DRY AIR MASS DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL BE COMMON BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TO OUR NE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE
WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL TAKE PLACE THU NT/EARLY FRI MORNING...WITH PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST...PROVIDING A
CONTINUED DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK DRY REINFORCING FRONT EXPECTED
TO COME LATE SAT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND CLEAR SKIES. NO FOG WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK AS SHOWN IN THE KCAE WIND PROFILE.
2000FT WINDS AROUND 35-40 KT. HAVE INTRODUCED LLWS FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AT KCAE GIVEN LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND STRONG WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 230508
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
108 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY KEEPING LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. WIND
NEAR CALM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK. SHOULD SEE WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND DRY AIR MASS DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL BE COMMON BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TO OUR NE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE
WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL TAKE PLACE THU NT/EARLY FRI MORNING...WITH PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST...PROVIDING A
CONTINUED DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK DRY REINFORCING FRONT EXPECTED
TO COME LATE SAT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND CLEAR SKIES. NO FOG WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK AS SHOWN IN THE KCAE WIND PROFILE.
2000FT WINDS AROUND 35-40 KT. HAVE INTRODUCED LLWS FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AT KCAE GIVEN LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND STRONG WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

MANNING

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 230239
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1039 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY MORE
HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS EVENING...NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING
FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH DEEP DRY AIR SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR AND THE FORECAST IS VERY QUIET THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE LOW TEMPERATURES. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 2 MB ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
AIDED BY A WEAK NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW. LOWS HAVE BEEN NUDGED
DOWN IN SOME OF THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS BASED ON THE COOP MOS. EXPECT
LOWER 40S INLAND WITH MID TO UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S ON THU. LOWS WILL CONTINUE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...
FALLING INTO THE MID 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS
PWAT VALUES REMAIN BELOW 0.5 INCHES. UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON FRI
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY WITHIN THE CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS...NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. FRI WILL FEATURE MORE SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACQUIRES A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT...HIGHS ON SAT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S. LOWS ON FRI
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY THEN START TO
DIVERGE. A SPRAWLING DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AND THEN MOVES JUST OFF SHORE BY LATER MONDAY AS AN ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS NEXT TROUGH IS WHERE
THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE FULL LATITUDE IN
ITS EXTENT BY TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER...HOLDING
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WELL NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ODDLY...
MODELS COME BACK TO CLOSER AGREEMENT BY WEDNESDAY AS BOTH SHOW A
BROAD TROUGH/NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND A
DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEPARTING OVER THE ATLANTIC. THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH TD9...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE LARGELY DOMINATES. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO ADVECT BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE COASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME ORIENTED NORTH/SOUTH BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINLY BE IN THE 10-15 KT
RANGE...EXCEPT A SOLID 15 KT BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS 2-3 FT WITHIN 20
NM AND 3-4 FT BEYOND.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT MAINLY 2-3 FT SEAS ON THU WITH
NORTH WINDS 10-15 KT. COULD SEE SOME 3-4 FT SEAS IN THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THU. AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES FRI INTO SAT...
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MON. NO HEADLINES OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/RFM





000
FXUS62 KCAE 230100
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
900 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY KEEPING LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. WIND
NEAR CALM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK. SHOULD SEE WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND DRY AIR MASS DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL BE COMMON BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TO OUR NE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE
WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL TAKE PLACE THU NT/EARLY FRI MORNING...WITH PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST...PROVIDING A
CONTINUED DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK DRY REINFORCING FRONT EXPECTED
TO COME LATE SAT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT AND WILL BACK TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AT AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS. NO EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT
ANTICIPATED DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND A 20
KNOT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AT AROUND 1000 FEET.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 230100
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
900 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY KEEPING LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. WIND
NEAR CALM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK. SHOULD SEE WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND DRY AIR MASS DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL BE COMMON BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TO OUR NE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE
WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL TAKE PLACE THU NT/EARLY FRI MORNING...WITH PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST...PROVIDING A
CONTINUED DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK DRY REINFORCING FRONT EXPECTED
TO COME LATE SAT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT AND WILL BACK TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AT AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS. NO EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT
ANTICIPATED DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND A 20
KNOT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AT AROUND 1000 FEET.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 222337
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
737 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A DRY AIR MASS...AND LIGHT
WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WHICH WILL
BRING SOME OF THE COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON.
READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL BE COMMON BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TO OUR NE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE
WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE INTO OUR REGION. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS APPEARS WILL TAKE PLACE THU NT/EARLY FRI
MORNING...WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST...PROVIDING A
CONTINUED DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK DRY REINFORCING FRONT EXPECTED
TO COME LATE SAT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT AND WILL BACK TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AT AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS. NO EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT
ANTICIPATED DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND A 20
KNOT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AT AROUND 1000 FEET.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 222331
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY MORE
HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EARLY THIS EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
POSITIONED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH DEEP DRY AIR SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND THE FORECAST IS VERY QUIET THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE LOW
TEMPERATURES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 2 MB ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AIDED BY A WEAK NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW. EXPECT
LOWER 40S INLAND WITH MID TO UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S ON THU. LOWS WILL CONTINUE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...
FALLING INTO THE MID 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS
PWAT VALUES REMAIN BELOW 0.5 INCHES. UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON FRI
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY WITHIN THE CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS...NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. FRI WILL FEATURE MORE SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACQUIRES A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT...HIGHS ON SAT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S. LOWS ON FRI
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY THEN START TO
DIVERGE. A SPRAWLING DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AND THEN MOVES JUST OFF SHORE BY LATER MONDAY AS AN ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS NEXT TROUGH IS WHERE
THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE FULL LATITUDE IN
ITS EXTENT BY TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER...HOLDING
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WELL NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ODDLY...
MODELS COME BACK TO CLOSER AGREEMENT BY WEDNESDAY AS BOTH SHOW A
BROAD TROUGH/NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND A
DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEPARTING OVER THE ATLANTIC. THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH TD9...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE LARGELY DOMINATES. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO ADVECT BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE COASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME ORIENTED NORTH/SOUTH BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINLY BE IN THE 10-15 KT
RANGE...EXCEPT A SOLID 15 KT BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS 2-3 FT WITHIN 20
NM AND 3-4 FT BEYOND.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT MAINLY 2-3 FT SEAS ON THU WITH
NORTH WINDS 10-15 KT. COULD SEE SOME 3-4 FT SEAS IN THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THU. AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES FRI INTO SAT...
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MON. NO HEADLINES OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/RFM





000
FXUS62 KFFC 222326 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
725 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
DECIDED TO INCLUDE GILMER COUNTY IN THE FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT.
COVERAGE OF TEMPERATURES IS SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE ENOUGH AREAS THAT
MAY SEE SOME FROST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTY...TO INCLUDE IT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE CWA IS UNDER NW
FLOW INITIALLY WITH RIDGING OVER THE MS VALLEY AND A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. THESE CONDITIONS...ALONG
WITH NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE AREA IS MUCH DRIER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY IN
TERMS OF PW VALUES AND THE NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PERSIST...DID
NOT GO AS COLD AS THE LOWER GUIDANCE VALUES OR EVEN A
BLEND...TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE
THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT BIAS TOWARDS BEING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT.
THIS RESULTED IN VALUES DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS FAR NE
GEORGIA. WITH THE CALM WINDS AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...EXPECT
FROST ACROSS THAT AREA AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
FIVE COUNTIES ACROSS THE FAR NE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. COULD STILL SEE PATCHY FROST ACROSS OTHER ISOLATED AREAS IN
NORTH GEORGIA.

AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY SHIFTS EAST AND THE NW FLOW BEINGS
TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM A COUPLE DEGREES COMPARED
TO TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...LOWS ONLY DIP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S SO AT THIS POINT JUST A TAD TOO WARM FOR FROST
FRIDAY MORNING.

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...BUT TWO COLD
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT GA DURING THE PERIOD. AN EARLY WEEKEND
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS CURRENTLY HAVE THE COLDEST MIN TEMPS.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...IF TEMPS ARE COLDER THEN
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR THE NORTHEAST GA MTNS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 04Z-14Z IN FOG...HOWEVER I DO NOT ANTICIPATED ANY
RESTRICTIONS AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AT 8KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          40  70  43  71 /   0   0   0   5
ATLANTA         44  70  48  70 /   0   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     34  67  40  67 /   0   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    37  68  39  70 /   0   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        44  72  46  74 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     44  69  46  70 /   0   0   0   5
MACON           39  72  41  75 /   0   0   0   5
ROME            39  69  41  71 /   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  38  70  39  72 /   0   0   0   5
VIDALIA         47  72  48  75 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20









000
FXUS62 KFFC 222213
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
613 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
DECIDED TO INCLUDE GILMER COUNTY IN THE FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT.
COVERAGE OF TEMPERATURES IS SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE ENOUGH AREAS THAT
MAY SEE SOME FROST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTY...TO INCLUDE IT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE CWA IS UNDER NW
FLOW INITIALLY WITH RIDGING OVER THE MS VALLEY AND A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. THESE CONDITIONS...ALONG
WITH NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE AREA IS MUCH DRIER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY IN
TERMS OF PW VALUES AND THE NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PERSIST...DID
NOT GO AS COLD AS THE LOWER GUIDANCE VALUES OR EVEN A
BLEND...TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE
THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT BIAS TOWARDS BEING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT.
THIS RESULTED IN VALUES DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS FAR NE
GEORGIA. WITH THE CALM WINDS AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...EXPECT
FROST ACROSS THAT AREA AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
FIVE COUNTIES ACROSS THE FAR NE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. COULD STILL SEE PATCHY FROST ACROSS OTHER ISOLATED AREAS IN
NORTH GEORGIA.

AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY SHIFTS EAST AND THE NW FLOW BEINGS
TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM A COUPLE DEGREES COMPARED
TO TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...LOWS ONLY DIP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S SO AT THIS POINT JUST A TAD TOO WARM FOR FROST
FRIDAY MORNING.

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...BUT TWO COLD
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT GA DURING THE PERIOD. AN EARLY WEEKEND
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS CURRENTLY HAVE THE COLDEST MIN TEMPS.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...IF TEMPS ARE COLDER THEN
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR THE NORTHEAST GA MTNS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON IS WIND DIRECTION. EXPECT THE WINDS
TO WAIVER BETWEEN NNE AND NNW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THUS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER THEY WILL REMAIN ON THE NNE OR NNW SIDE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND
DIRECTION DUE TO WIND DIRECTION WAVERING AROUND NORTH.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          40  70  43  71 /   0   0   0   5
ATLANTA         44  70  48  70 /   0   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     34  67  40  67 /   0   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    37  68  39  70 /   0   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        44  72  46  74 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     44  69  46  70 /   0   0   0   5
MACON           39  72  41  75 /   0   0   0   5
ROME            39  69  41  71 /   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  38  70  39  72 /   0   0   0   5
VIDALIA         47  72  48  75 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20






000
FXUS62 KFFC 222213
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
613 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
DECIDED TO INCLUDE GILMER COUNTY IN THE FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT.
COVERAGE OF TEMPERATURES IS SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE ENOUGH AREAS THAT
MAY SEE SOME FROST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTY...TO INCLUDE IT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE CWA IS UNDER NW
FLOW INITIALLY WITH RIDGING OVER THE MS VALLEY AND A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. THESE CONDITIONS...ALONG
WITH NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE AREA IS MUCH DRIER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY IN
TERMS OF PW VALUES AND THE NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PERSIST...DID
NOT GO AS COLD AS THE LOWER GUIDANCE VALUES OR EVEN A
BLEND...TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE
THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT BIAS TOWARDS BEING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT.
THIS RESULTED IN VALUES DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS FAR NE
GEORGIA. WITH THE CALM WINDS AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...EXPECT
FROST ACROSS THAT AREA AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
FIVE COUNTIES ACROSS THE FAR NE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. COULD STILL SEE PATCHY FROST ACROSS OTHER ISOLATED AREAS IN
NORTH GEORGIA.

AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY SHIFTS EAST AND THE NW FLOW BEINGS
TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM A COUPLE DEGREES COMPARED
TO TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...LOWS ONLY DIP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S SO AT THIS POINT JUST A TAD TOO WARM FOR FROST
FRIDAY MORNING.

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...BUT TWO COLD
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT GA DURING THE PERIOD. AN EARLY WEEKEND
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS CURRENTLY HAVE THE COLDEST MIN TEMPS.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...IF TEMPS ARE COLDER THEN
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR THE NORTHEAST GA MTNS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON IS WIND DIRECTION. EXPECT THE WINDS
TO WAIVER BETWEEN NNE AND NNW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THUS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER THEY WILL REMAIN ON THE NNE OR NNW SIDE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND
DIRECTION DUE TO WIND DIRECTION WAVERING AROUND NORTH.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          40  70  43  71 /   0   0   0   5
ATLANTA         44  70  48  70 /   0   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     34  67  40  67 /   0   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    37  68  39  70 /   0   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        44  72  46  74 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     44  69  46  70 /   0   0   0   5
MACON           39  72  41  75 /   0   0   0   5
ROME            39  69  41  71 /   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  38  70  39  72 /   0   0   0   5
VIDALIA         47  72  48  75 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20






000
FXUS62 KCHS 222146
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
546 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY MORE
HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EARLY THIS EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
POSITIONED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH DEEP DRY AIR SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND THE FORECAST IS VERY QUIET THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE LOW
TEMPERATURES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 2 MB ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AIDED BY A WEAK NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW. EXPECT
LOWER 40S INLAND WITH MID TO UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S ON THU. LOWS WILL CONTINUE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...
FALLING INTO THE MID 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS
PWAT VALUES REMAIN BELOW 0.5 INCHES. UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON FRI
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY WITHIN THE CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS...NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. FRI WILL FEATURE MORE SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACQUIRES A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT...HIGHS ON SAT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S. LOWS ON FRI
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY THEN START TO
DIVERGE. A SPRAWLING DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AND THEN MOVES JUST OFF SHORE BY LATER MONDAY AS AN ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS NEXT TROUGH IS WHERE
THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE FULL LATITUDE IN
ITS EXTENT BY TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER...HOLDING
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WELL NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ODDLY...
MODELS COME BACK TO CLOSER AGREEMENT BY WEDNESDAY AS BOTH SHOW A
BROAD TROUGH/NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND A
DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEPARTING OVER THE ATLANTIC. THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH TD9...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE LARGELY DOMINATES. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO ADVECT BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE COASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE AND A HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...EXPECT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BECOME MORE RELAXED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TO DECREASE
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. AS FOR SEAS...EXPECT 3 TO 5 FT WAVES.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT MAINLY 2-3 FT SEAS ON THU WITH
NORTH WINDS 10-15 KT. COULD SEE SOME 3-4 FT SEAS IN THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THU. AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES FRI INTO SAT...
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MON. NO HEADLINES OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...DPB/RFM





000
FXUS62 KCAE 222059
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
459 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A DRY AIR MASS...AND LIGHT
WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WHICH WILL
BRING SOME OF THE COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON.
READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL BE COMMON BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TO OUR NE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE
WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE INTO OUR REGION. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS APPEARS WILL TAKE PLACE THU NT/EARLY FRI
MORNING...WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST...PROVIDING A
CONTINUED DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK DRY REINFORCING FRONT EXPECTED
TO COME LATE SAT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND WILL DIMINISH
TO LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY SUNSET. NO EARLY MORNING FOG
DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
AND A 20 KNOT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AT AROUND 1000 FEET.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 222007
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
407 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A DRY AIR MASS...AND LIGHT
WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WHICH WILL
BRING SOME OF THE COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON.
READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL BE COMMON BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TO OUR NE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE
WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE INTO OUR REGION. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS APPEARS WILL TAKE PLACE THU NT/EARLY FRI
MORNING...WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST...PROVIDING A
CONTINUED DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK DRY REINFORCING FRONT EXPECTED
TO COME LATE SAT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
DIMINISH TO LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY SUNSET. VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 221916
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
316 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE CWA IS UNDER NW
FLOW INITIALLY WITH RIDGING OVER THE MS VALLEY AND A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. THESE CONDITIONS...ALONG
WITH NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE AREA IS MUCH DRIER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY IN
TERMS OF PW VALUES AND THE NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PERSIST...DID
NOT GO AS COLD AS THE LOWER GUIDANCE VALUES OR EVEN A
BLEND...TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE
THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT BIAS TOWARDS BEING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT.
THIS RESULTED IN VALUES DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS FAR NE
GEORGIA. WITH THE CALM WINDS AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...EXPECT
FROST ACROSS THAT AREA AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
FIVE COUNTIES ACROSS THE FAR NE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. COULD STILL SEE PATCHY FROST ACROSS OTHER ISOLATED AREAS IN
NORTH GEORGIA.

AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY SHIFTS EAST AND THE NW FLOW BEINGS
TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM A COUPLE DEGREES COMPARED
TO TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...LOWS ONLY DIP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S SO AT THIS POINT JUST A TAD TOO WARM FOR FROST
FRIDAY MORNING.

11


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...BUT TWO COLD
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT GA DURING THE PERIOD. AN EARLY WEEKEND
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS CURRENTLY HAVE THE COLDEST MIN TEMPS.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...IF TEMPS ARE COLDER THEN
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR THE NORTHEAST GA MTNS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON IS WIND DIRECTION. EXPECT THE WINDS
TO WAIVER BETWEEN NNE AND NNW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THUS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER THEY WILL REMAIN ON THE NNE OR NNW SIDE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND
DIRECTION DUE TO WIND DIRECTION WAVERING AROUND NORTH.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          40  70  43  71 /   0   0   0   5
ATLANTA         44  70  48  70 /   0   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     34  67  40  67 /   0   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    37  68  39  70 /   0   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        44  72  46  74 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     44  69  46  70 /   0   0   0   5
MACON           39  72  41  75 /   0   0   0   5
ROME            39  69  41  71 /   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  38  70  39  72 /   0   0   0   5
VIDALIA         47  72  48  75 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: FANNIN...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11






000
FXUS62 KCHS 221857
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
257 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY AND
THEN DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS WEDGED BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. AS A RESULT...COOL AND
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S WHILE A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE MANAGED TO REACH 70
DEGREES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ONLY A FEW MORE
DEGREES...OVERALL CRESTING IN THE LOWER 70S.

THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALONG THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL SEE NEARLY CALM WINDS. THIS COMBINED WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CREATE CONDITIONS IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO COOL QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWER 40S
INLAND...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AS YOU MOVE TOWARDS THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S ON THU. LOWS WILL CONTINUE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...
FALLING INTO THE MID 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS
PWAT VALUES REMAIN BELOW 0.5 INCHES. UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON FRI
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY WITHIN THE CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS...NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. FRI WILL FEATURE MORE SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACQUIRES A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT...HIGHS ON SAT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S. LOWS ON FRI
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY THEN START TO
DIVERGE. A SPRAWLING DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AND THEN MOVES JUST OFF SHORE BY LATER MONDAY AS AN ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS NEXT TROUGH IS WHERE
THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE FULL LATITUDE IN
ITS EXTENT BY TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER...HOLDING
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WELL NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ODDLY...
MODELS COME BACK TO CLOSER AGREEMENT BY WEDNESDAY AS BOTH SHOW A
BROAD TROUGH/NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND A
DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEPARTING OVER THE ATLANTIC. THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH TD9...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE LARGELY DOMINATES. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO ADVECT BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE COASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE ONLY
ISSUE WILL BE WINDS THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KT AND GUSTS AOA 20 KT.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO ABOUT 5 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE AND A HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...EXPECT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BECOME MORE RELAXED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TO DECREASE
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. AS FOR SEAS...EXPECT 3 TO 5 FT WAVES.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT MAINLY 2-3 FT SEAS ON THU WITH
NORTH WINDS 10-15 KT. COULD SEE SOME 3-4 FT SEAS IN THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THU. AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES FRI INTO SAT...
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MON. NO HEADLINES OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SGL.ILM
SHORT TERM...BJR.ILM
LONG TERM...RFM.CHS
AVIATION...RN.ILM
MARINE...SGL.ILM...BJR.ILM










000
FXUS62 KFFC 221742 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
142 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1056 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW AND A DRY
FORECAST...THERE WAS LITTLE TO ADJUST IN THE MORNING UPDATE. ONLY
CHANGES WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HOURLY TRENDS.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/
VERY DRY AND COOL FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE SHORT TERM AS STRONG
RIDGING CONTINUES INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF
A DEEPENING CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING NEW ENGLAND. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING
CONTINUED EXTREMELY DRY PROFILES AND ANY HIND OF MOISTURE IS ONLY BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WE MAY GET SOME CIRRUS.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH FROST POTENTIAL THURSDAY MORNING AS SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON LOOK TO BE REACHED WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING...AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS ALSO. MID
30S LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG WITH
LOW 30S POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST GA. HAVE
INCLUDED PATCHY FROST MENTION FOR NOW...THOUGH TRENDS IN GUIDANCE
LATER TODAY WILL BE MONITORED FOR EXTENT OF POTENTIAL FROST ADVISORY
ISSUANCE.

BAKER

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...BUT TWO COLD
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT GA DURING THE PERIOD. AN EARLY WEEKEND
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS CURRENTLY HAVE THE COLDEST MIN TEMPS.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...IF TEMPS ARE COLDER THEN
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR THE NORTHEAST GA MTNS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON IS WIND DIRECTION. EXPECT THE WINDS
TO WAIVER BETWEEN NNE AND NNW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THUS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER THEY WILL REMAIN ON THE NNE OR NNW SIDE.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND
DIRECTION DUE TO WIND DIRECTION WAVERING AROUND NORTH.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  40  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         67  45  70  50 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     61  33  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    67  36  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        72  44  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     66  42  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           72  38  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            67  38  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  69  36  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         71  46  73  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11






000
FXUS62 KFFC 221742 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
142 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1056 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW AND A DRY
FORECAST...THERE WAS LITTLE TO ADJUST IN THE MORNING UPDATE. ONLY
CHANGES WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HOURLY TRENDS.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/
VERY DRY AND COOL FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE SHORT TERM AS STRONG
RIDGING CONTINUES INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF
A DEEPENING CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING NEW ENGLAND. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING
CONTINUED EXTREMELY DRY PROFILES AND ANY HIND OF MOISTURE IS ONLY BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WE MAY GET SOME CIRRUS.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH FROST POTENTIAL THURSDAY MORNING AS SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON LOOK TO BE REACHED WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING...AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS ALSO. MID
30S LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG WITH
LOW 30S POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST GA. HAVE
INCLUDED PATCHY FROST MENTION FOR NOW...THOUGH TRENDS IN GUIDANCE
LATER TODAY WILL BE MONITORED FOR EXTENT OF POTENTIAL FROST ADVISORY
ISSUANCE.

BAKER

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...BUT TWO COLD
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT GA DURING THE PERIOD. AN EARLY WEEKEND
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS CURRENTLY HAVE THE COLDEST MIN TEMPS.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...IF TEMPS ARE COLDER THEN
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR THE NORTHEAST GA MTNS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON IS WIND DIRECTION. EXPECT THE WINDS
TO WAIVER BETWEEN NNE AND NNW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THUS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER THEY WILL REMAIN ON THE NNE OR NNW SIDE.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND
DIRECTION DUE TO WIND DIRECTION WAVERING AROUND NORTH.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  40  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         67  45  70  50 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     61  33  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    67  36  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        72  44  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     66  42  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           72  38  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            67  38  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  69  36  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         71  46  73  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11






000
FXUS62 KCAE 221652
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1252 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AS STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.

TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A DRY AIR MASS...AND
LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
WHICH WILL BRING SOME OF THE COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON. READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL BE COMMON BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TO OUR NE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE
WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE INTO OUR REGION. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS APPEARS WILL TAKE PLACE THU NT/EARLY FRI
MORNING...WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST...PROVIDING A
CONTINUED DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK DRY REINFORCING FRONT EXPECTED
TO COME LATE SAT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES TO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
DIMINISH TO LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY SUNSET. VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 221652
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1252 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AS STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.

TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A DRY AIR MASS...AND
LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
WHICH WILL BRING SOME OF THE COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON. READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL BE COMMON BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TO OUR NE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE
WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE INTO OUR REGION. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS APPEARS WILL TAKE PLACE THU NT/EARLY FRI
MORNING...WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST...PROVIDING A
CONTINUED DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK DRY REINFORCING FRONT EXPECTED
TO COME LATE SAT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES TO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
DIMINISH TO LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY SUNSET. VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 221644
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1244 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY AND
THEN DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE GOING
FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE...AS WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY
QUIET. WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS
WEDGED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ALLOWING FOR NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW TO
PERSIST. AS A RESULT...COOL AND DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO
INFILTRATE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES ATTM HAVE WARMED UP TO
THE LOWER 60S...WITH SOME AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON MAKING HIGHS FOR TODAY IN THE LOWER 70S.

INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ALONG THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL SEE NEARLY CALM WINDS. THIS
COMBINED WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWER 40S INLAND...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S AS YOU MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...CENTERED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD
TO THE GULF COAST...WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS.THERE COULD BE A WEAK SEA BREEZE RIGHT AT THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND
TO THE LOWER 50S AT THE COAST.

FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ALREADY HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES DOWN IN THE UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH
PRODUCING A MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT APPROACHES THE REGION BY
LATE DAY...WITH THE NAM AND THE GFS MUCH WEAKER/BROAD AND FURTHER NORTH.
HAVE GONE WITH THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS AND KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF
PRECIP. AGAIN...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT NORTHWEST...WITH A LATE
DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. NOTE: SEA BREEZES ARE
GETTING MORE DIFFICULT GIVEN TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
LAND AND WATER ARE BECOMING LESS...EVEN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPS TO
RADIATE DOWN TO THE MID 40S INLAND AND LOWER 50S COAST.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED BROAD NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE CENTERED WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPS
MODERATE SOME. THUS...EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY THEN START TO
DIVERGE. A SPRAWLING DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AND THEN MOVES JUST OFF SHORE BY LATER MONDAY AS AN ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS NEXT TROUGH IS WHERE
THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE FULL LATITUDE IN
ITS EXTENT BY TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER...HOLDING
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WELL NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ODDLY...
MODELS COME BACK TO CLOSER AGREEMENT BY WEDNESDAY AS BOTH SHOW A
BROAD TROUGH/NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND A
DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEPARTING OVER THE ATLANTIC. THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH TD9...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE LARGELY DOMINATES. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO ADVECT BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE COASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE ONLY
ISSUE WILL BE WINDS THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KT AND GUSTS AOA 20 KT.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO ABOUT 5 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE GOING
FORECAST...THUS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

TODAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED
THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS RANGING BETWEEN
15-20 KTS AND SEAS BETWEEN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL 25 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH LATE
MORNING...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY RELAXES OVER THE WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY THEN SHIFT TO NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
BY LATER MONDAY. NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SGL.ILM
SHORT TERM...RFM.CHS
LONG TERM...RFM.CHS
AVIATION...RN.ILM
MARINE...SGL.ILM...DPB/RFM.CHS







000
FXUS62 KCHS 221644
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1244 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY AND
THEN DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE GOING
FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE...AS WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY
QUIET. WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS
WEDGED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ALLOWING FOR NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW TO
PERSIST. AS A RESULT...COOL AND DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO
INFILTRATE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES ATTM HAVE WARMED UP TO
THE LOWER 60S...WITH SOME AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON MAKING HIGHS FOR TODAY IN THE LOWER 70S.

INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ALONG THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL SEE NEARLY CALM WINDS. THIS
COMBINED WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWER 40S INLAND...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S AS YOU MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...CENTERED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD
TO THE GULF COAST...WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS.THERE COULD BE A WEAK SEA BREEZE RIGHT AT THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND
TO THE LOWER 50S AT THE COAST.

FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ALREADY HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES DOWN IN THE UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH
PRODUCING A MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT APPROACHES THE REGION BY
LATE DAY...WITH THE NAM AND THE GFS MUCH WEAKER/BROAD AND FURTHER NORTH.
HAVE GONE WITH THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS AND KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF
PRECIP. AGAIN...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT NORTHWEST...WITH A LATE
DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. NOTE: SEA BREEZES ARE
GETTING MORE DIFFICULT GIVEN TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
LAND AND WATER ARE BECOMING LESS...EVEN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPS TO
RADIATE DOWN TO THE MID 40S INLAND AND LOWER 50S COAST.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED BROAD NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE CENTERED WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPS
MODERATE SOME. THUS...EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY THEN START TO
DIVERGE. A SPRAWLING DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AND THEN MOVES JUST OFF SHORE BY LATER MONDAY AS AN ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS NEXT TROUGH IS WHERE
THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE FULL LATITUDE IN
ITS EXTENT BY TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER...HOLDING
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WELL NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ODDLY...
MODELS COME BACK TO CLOSER AGREEMENT BY WEDNESDAY AS BOTH SHOW A
BROAD TROUGH/NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND A
DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEPARTING OVER THE ATLANTIC. THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH TD9...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE LARGELY DOMINATES. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO ADVECT BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE COASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE ONLY
ISSUE WILL BE WINDS THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KT AND GUSTS AOA 20 KT.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO ABOUT 5 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE GOING
FORECAST...THUS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

TODAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED
THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS RANGING BETWEEN
15-20 KTS AND SEAS BETWEEN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL 25 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH LATE
MORNING...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY RELAXES OVER THE WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY THEN SHIFT TO NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
BY LATER MONDAY. NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SGL.ILM
SHORT TERM...RFM.CHS
LONG TERM...RFM.CHS
AVIATION...RN.ILM
MARINE...SGL.ILM...DPB/RFM.CHS







000
FXUS62 KCAE 221555
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1155 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AS STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.

TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A DRY AIRMASS...AND
LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
WHICH WILL BRING SOME OF THE COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON. READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL BE COMMON BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TO OUR NE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE
WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE INTO OUR REGION. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS APPEARS WILL TAKE PLACE THU NT/EARLY FRI
MORNING...WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST...PROVIDING A
CONTINUED DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK DRY REINFORCING FRONT EXPECTED
TO COME LATE SAT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES TO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
DIMINISH TO LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY SUNSET. VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 221555
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1155 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AS STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.

TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A DRY AIRMASS...AND
LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
WHICH WILL BRING SOME OF THE COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON. READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL BE COMMON BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TO OUR NE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE
WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE INTO OUR REGION. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS APPEARS WILL TAKE PLACE THU NT/EARLY FRI
MORNING...WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHINESS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST...PROVIDING A
CONTINUED DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK DRY REINFORCING FRONT EXPECTED
TO COME LATE SAT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES TO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
DIMINISH TO LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY SUNSET. VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









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