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000
FXUS62 KCHS 240059
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
759 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL BE AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH
THIS EVENING TO THE LOCAL AREA. IT IS STARTING TO PIVOT MORE
NORTH/NE RATHER THAN EASTWARD...SO THE QLCS MAY START TO DWINDLE
SOME IN ITS INTENSITY WITH TIME BY 06Z AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A TRIPLE
POINT/OCCLUSION NEAR AN AREA OF CONFLUENCE NEAR THE SAVANNAH
RIVER.

CINH IS ATTEMPTING TO HOLD ON AND/OR DEVELOP OVER A WIDER
AREA...BUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THIS HAS BEEN A
DIFFICULT PROCESS AS INSTEAD WE/RE STARTING TO SEE SOME MORE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST ZONES WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS THAT ARE WELL INTO THE 60S OR EVEN NEAR 70!
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS IN AND NEAR OR OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE
MAIN QLCS. THIS WILL CONTINUE AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES TOWARD THE
COAST.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE
AND A STRONG 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG KINEMATICS WITH 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR OVER 50 KT...0-3KM HELICITY AS HIGH AS 250-300 M/SEC
AND A THIN SLIVER OF SHREBS3 VALUES GREATER THAN 1 UNIT AND VGP
VALUES NEAR OR GREATER THAN 0.2 SUGGESTS THAT THE QLCS THAT MOVES
INTO AND THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA COULD PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING
WINDS AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES. ANY SEVERE RISK WILL BE BY
MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM AT THE LATEST.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE ALIGNMENT OF THE POP SCHEME...BUT EVERYONE
SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WITH 70-80 POPS
ACROSS THE BOARD EARLY ON...WITH COVERAGE STARTING TO WANE
OVERNIGHT FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE AND DOWN TO 30-40 POPS LATE.

THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WILL SHOW THE WARM ADVECTION WE/RE IN WITH
VERY LITTLE DOWNWARD TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE/LL ACTUALLY BE
CLOSE TO WHAT NORMAL HIGHS SHOULD BE FOR THE DAYTIME.

FOG WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE FULLY SATURATED GROUNDS AND THE
BUILD-DOWN OF STRATUS. THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY STRONG WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK AND SOME MIXING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
CONVECTION THAT LIFTS CEILINGS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. BUT WE HAVE
AREAS OF FOG NONETHELESS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF A
LITTLE SEA FOG ALONG AND OFF THE COAST...AND AS THE FLOW VEERS TO
SOUTH AND SOUTH/SW SOME OF THIS WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS WELL. FOR
NOW THERE IS NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK DOES ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A HUMONGOUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD
MEXICO...WITH A STEADY BUT PROGRESSIVE MIGRATION EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DEEP AND VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INITIALLY THAT HEADS QUICKLY
NE INTO CANADA THEREAFTER. TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE IS A SOMEWHAT
DETACHED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BECOME BOGGED DOWN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING...HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER NIGHTFALL.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED IN RELATION TO THE LOCAL
ZONES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NEAR IF NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
AND SE GA. AND PWATS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NVA ALOFT AND WE/RE NOT
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS WE ARE
HESITANT TO SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS. THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING THOUGH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS CONSIDERING ITS LATE
NOVEMBER AND DECENT SHEAR...SO THERE MIGHT BE A VERY LOW END RISK OF
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER WE LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION TO FADE QUICKLY. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WE
STILL NEED TO SHOW SMALL POPS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS FAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF MORE
INSOLATION DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING TEMPS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 80 AWAY FROM THE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEACHES. AT PRESENT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE JUST SHY OF ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW MORE SPECIFIC RECORDS/. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES THAN THEY/LL BE TONIGHT AS SOME COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOG...SATURATED GROUNDS AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEA FOG IS THROWN INTO THE
MIX. ANY ANY SEA FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW REGION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL DIG THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HEADING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
OLD COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SE COAST...PROBABLY
OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. A POWERFUL UPPER JET ON
THE ORDER OF 150-175 KT OR GREATER WILL DRIVE THE SHORT WAVE...AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOME
FLUCTUATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST WILL
GENERATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND DRIER AIR
PENETRATES IN BY LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. A CONTINUE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGHER
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A PLETHORA OF WEATHER THROUGH
THE 00Z TAF CYCLE AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
AND GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST/NW LATE
MONDAY.

KCHS...THE FIRST BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE AIRFIELD IS BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING...BUT A SECOND BAND NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER 02Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.
WE ARE THEREFORE SHOWING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN TSRA AND LIGHT
FOG. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK
FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL
TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE
TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION YET AGAIN.

KSAV...THE APPROACHING SQUALL LINE IS MOVING STEADILY EAST AND WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINAL EARLY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN TSRA...GUSTY
WINDS AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO
FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL
POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF
STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR
INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT
LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE
SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION
STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO A BAND OF HIGHER
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION YET
AGAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MUCH GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
OFF THE SE COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.
BREEZY DURING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH A PACKED GRADIENT
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALL WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT...A FEW OF WHICH COULD STILL BE
STRONG OR SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADIC
WATERSPOUTS TO OCCUR. REMAIN IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH YOUR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR APPROPRIATE VHF CHANNELS.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AS A WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT
SOME POINT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 NM SO DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE
WATERS WHERE A HUGE TEMP SPREAD WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MID-UPPER
50S WATER TEMPS AND THE WARMER MID-UPPER 60S AIR MASS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WILL
FIGHT TO HOLD ON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT TRICKLES IN
FROM THE WEST/NW LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL DECENT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND ALSO
SOME MIXING OF 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
CONSIDERABLE WE LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AND/OR FOG FROM
OVER LAND AREAS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN A HUGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND THE OVER-RIDING AIR MASS WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM...AWAITING FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THAT LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WE/LL ENJOY CONDITIONS BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961. /BROKEN TODAY/
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942. /BROKEN TODAY/
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 240059
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
759 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL BE AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH
THIS EVENING TO THE LOCAL AREA. IT IS STARTING TO PIVOT MORE
NORTH/NE RATHER THAN EASTWARD...SO THE QLCS MAY START TO DWINDLE
SOME IN ITS INTENSITY WITH TIME BY 06Z AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A TRIPLE
POINT/OCCLUSION NEAR AN AREA OF CONFLUENCE NEAR THE SAVANNAH
RIVER.

CINH IS ATTEMPTING TO HOLD ON AND/OR DEVELOP OVER A WIDER
AREA...BUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THIS HAS BEEN A
DIFFICULT PROCESS AS INSTEAD WE/RE STARTING TO SEE SOME MORE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST ZONES WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS THAT ARE WELL INTO THE 60S OR EVEN NEAR 70!
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS IN AND NEAR OR OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE
MAIN QLCS. THIS WILL CONTINUE AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES TOWARD THE
COAST.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE
AND A STRONG 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG KINEMATICS WITH 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR OVER 50 KT...0-3KM HELICITY AS HIGH AS 250-300 M/SEC
AND A THIN SLIVER OF SHREBS3 VALUES GREATER THAN 1 UNIT AND VGP
VALUES NEAR OR GREATER THAN 0.2 SUGGESTS THAT THE QLCS THAT MOVES
INTO AND THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA COULD PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING
WINDS AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES. ANY SEVERE RISK WILL BE BY
MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM AT THE LATEST.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE ALIGNMENT OF THE POP SCHEME...BUT EVERYONE
SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WITH 70-80 POPS
ACROSS THE BOARD EARLY ON...WITH COVERAGE STARTING TO WANE
OVERNIGHT FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE AND DOWN TO 30-40 POPS LATE.

THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WILL SHOW THE WARM ADVECTION WE/RE IN WITH
VERY LITTLE DOWNWARD TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE/LL ACTUALLY BE
CLOSE TO WHAT NORMAL HIGHS SHOULD BE FOR THE DAYTIME.

FOG WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE FULLY SATURATED GROUNDS AND THE
BUILD-DOWN OF STRATUS. THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY STRONG WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK AND SOME MIXING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
CONVECTION THAT LIFTS CEILINGS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. BUT WE HAVE
AREAS OF FOG NONETHELESS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF A
LITTLE SEA FOG ALONG AND OFF THE COAST...AND AS THE FLOW VEERS TO
SOUTH AND SOUTH/SW SOME OF THIS WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS WELL. FOR
NOW THERE IS NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK DOES ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A HUMONGOUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD
MEXICO...WITH A STEADY BUT PROGRESSIVE MIGRATION EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DEEP AND VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INITIALLY THAT HEADS QUICKLY
NE INTO CANADA THEREAFTER. TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE IS A SOMEWHAT
DETACHED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BECOME BOGGED DOWN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING...HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER NIGHTFALL.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED IN RELATION TO THE LOCAL
ZONES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NEAR IF NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
AND SE GA. AND PWATS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NVA ALOFT AND WE/RE NOT
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS WE ARE
HESITANT TO SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS. THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING THOUGH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS CONSIDERING ITS LATE
NOVEMBER AND DECENT SHEAR...SO THERE MIGHT BE A VERY LOW END RISK OF
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER WE LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION TO FADE QUICKLY. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WE
STILL NEED TO SHOW SMALL POPS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS FAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF MORE
INSOLATION DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING TEMPS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 80 AWAY FROM THE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEACHES. AT PRESENT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE JUST SHY OF ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW MORE SPECIFIC RECORDS/. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES THAN THEY/LL BE TONIGHT AS SOME COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOG...SATURATED GROUNDS AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEA FOG IS THROWN INTO THE
MIX. ANY ANY SEA FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW REGION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL DIG THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HEADING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
OLD COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SE COAST...PROBABLY
OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. A POWERFUL UPPER JET ON
THE ORDER OF 150-175 KT OR GREATER WILL DRIVE THE SHORT WAVE...AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOME
FLUCTUATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST WILL
GENERATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND DRIER AIR
PENETRATES IN BY LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. A CONTINUE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGHER
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A PLETHORA OF WEATHER THROUGH
THE 00Z TAF CYCLE AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
AND GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST/NW LATE
MONDAY.

KCHS...THE FIRST BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE AIRFIELD IS BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING...BUT A SECOND BAND NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER 02Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.
WE ARE THEREFORE SHOWING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN TSRA AND LIGHT
FOG. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK
FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL
TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE
TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION YET AGAIN.

KSAV...THE APPROACHING SQUALL LINE IS MOVING STEADILY EAST AND WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINAL EARLY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN TSRA...GUSTY
WINDS AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO
FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL
POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF
STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR
INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT
LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE
SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION
STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO A BAND OF HIGHER
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION YET
AGAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MUCH GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
OFF THE SE COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.
BREEZY DURING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH A PACKED GRADIENT
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALL WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT...A FEW OF WHICH COULD STILL BE
STRONG OR SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADIC
WATERSPOUTS TO OCCUR. REMAIN IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH YOUR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR APPROPRIATE VHF CHANNELS.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AS A WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT
SOME POINT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 NM SO DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE
WATERS WHERE A HUGE TEMP SPREAD WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MID-UPPER
50S WATER TEMPS AND THE WARMER MID-UPPER 60S AIR MASS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WILL
FIGHT TO HOLD ON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT TRICKLES IN
FROM THE WEST/NW LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL DECENT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND ALSO
SOME MIXING OF 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
CONSIDERABLE WE LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AND/OR FOG FROM
OVER LAND AREAS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN A HUGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND THE OVER-RIDING AIR MASS WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM...AWAITING FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THAT LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WE/LL ENJOY CONDITIONS BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961. /BROKEN TODAY/
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942. /BROKEN TODAY/
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 240014
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
714 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL BE AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH
THIS EVENING TO THE LOCAL AREA. IT IS STARTING TO PIVOT MORE
NORTH/NE RATHER THAN EASTWARD...SO IT/LL GIVE US PRETTY MUCH A
GLANCING BLOW AS IT PASSES AWAY TO THE NORTH/NW BY 06Z. AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A TRIPLE POINT/OCCLUSION NEAR AN
AREA OF CONFLUENCE NEAR OUR FAR INTERIOR GA ZONES.

CINH IS ATTEMPTING TO HOLD ON AND/OR DEVELOP OVER A WIDER
AREA...BUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THIS HAS BEEN A
DIFFICULT PROCESS AS INSTEAD WE/RE STARTING TO SEE SOME MORE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST ZONES.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE
AND A STRONG 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG KINEMATICS WITH 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR OVER 50 KT AND A THIN SLIVER OF SHREBS3 VALUES
GREATER THAN 1 UNIT SUGGESTS THAT THE QLCS THAT MOVES INTO AND
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA COULD PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND
EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. IN FACT WE HAVE SEEN BROAD AND WEAK
CIRCULATION ON THE STORM HEADING TOWARD THE SYLVANIA AREA THIS
EVENING. ANY SEVERE RISK WILL BE BY 10-11 PM.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE ALIGNMENT OF THE POP SCHEME...BUT EVERYONE
SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WITH 70-80 POPS
ACROSS THE BOARD EARLY ON...WITH COVERAGE STARTING TO WANE
OVERNIGHT FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE AND DOWN TO 30-40 POPS LATE.

THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WILL SHOW THE WARM ADVECTION WE/RE IN WITH
VERY LITTLE DOWNWARD TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE/LL ACTUALLY BE
CLOSE TO WHAT NORMAL HIGHS SHOULD BE FOR THE DAYTIME.

FOG WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE FULLY SATURATED GROUNDS AND THE
BUILD-DOWN OF STRATUS. THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY STRONG WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK...BUT WE HAVE AREAS OF FOG NONETHELESS. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF A LITTLE SEA FOG ALONG AND OFF THE
COAST...AND AS THE FLOW VEERS TO SOUTH AND SOUTH/SW SOME OF THIS
WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS WELL. FOR NOW THERE IS NO DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...BUT THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DOES ADDRESS THIS
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A HUMONGOUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD
MEXICO...WITH A STEADY BUT PROGRESSIVE MIGRATION EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DEEP AND VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INITIALLY THAT HEADS QUICKLY
NE INTO CANADA THEREAFTER. TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE IS A SOMEWHAT
DETACHED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BECOME BOGGED DOWN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING...HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER NIGHTFALL.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED IN RELATION TO THE LOCAL
ZONES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NEAR IF NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
AND SE GA. AND PWATS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NVA ALOFT AND WE/RE NOT
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS WE ARE
HESITANT TO SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS. THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING THOUGH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS CONSIDERING ITS LATE
NOVEMBER AND DECENT SHEAR...SO THERE MIGHT BE A VERY LOW END RISK OF
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER WE LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION TO FADE QUICKLY. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WE
STILL NEED TO SHOW SMALL POPS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS FAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF MORE
INSOLATION DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING TEMPS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 80 AWAY FROM THE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEACHES. AT PRESENT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE JUST SHY OF ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW MORE SPECIFIC RECORDS/. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES THAN THEY/LL BE TONIGHT AS SOME COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOG...SATURATED GROUNDS AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEA FOG IS THROWN INTO THE
MIX. ANY ANY SEA FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW REGION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL DIG THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HEADING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
OLD COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SE COAST...PROBABLY
OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. A POWERFUL UPPER JET ON
THE ORDER OF 150-175 KT OR GREATER WILL DRIVE THE SHORT WAVE...AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOME
FLUCTUATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST WILL
GENERATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND DRIER AIR
PENETRATES IN BY LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. A CONTINUE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGHER
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A PLETHORA OF WEATHER THROUGH
THE 00Z TAF CYCLE AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
AND GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST/NW LATE
MONDAY.

KCHS...THE FIRST BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE AIRFIELD IS BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING...BUT A SECOND BAND NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER 02Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.
WE ARE THEREFORE SHOWING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN TSRA AND LIGHT
FOG. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK
FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL
TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE
TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION YET AGAIN.

KSAV...THE REMNANTS OF A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINAL EARLY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN TSRA AND IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 03Z. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK
FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL
TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE
TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION YET AGAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MUCH GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
OFF THE SE COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.
BREEZY DURING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH A PACKED GRADIENT
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALL WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AS A WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT
SOME POINT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 NM SO DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE
WATERS WHERE A HUGE TEMP SPREAD WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MID-UPPER
50S WATER TEMPS AND THE WARMER MID-UPPER 60S AIR MASS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WILL
FIGHT TO HOLD ON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT TRICKLES IN
FROM THE WEST/NW LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL DECENT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND ALSO
SOME MIXING OF 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
CONSIDERABLE WE LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AND/OR FOG FROM
OVER LAND AREAS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN A HUGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND THE OVER-RIDING AIR MASS WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM...AWAITING FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THAT LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WE/LL ENJOY CONDITIONS BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961. /BROKEN TODAY/
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942. /BROKEN TODAY/
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 240014
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
714 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL BE AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH
THIS EVENING TO THE LOCAL AREA. IT IS STARTING TO PIVOT MORE
NORTH/NE RATHER THAN EASTWARD...SO IT/LL GIVE US PRETTY MUCH A
GLANCING BLOW AS IT PASSES AWAY TO THE NORTH/NW BY 06Z. AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A TRIPLE POINT/OCCLUSION NEAR AN
AREA OF CONFLUENCE NEAR OUR FAR INTERIOR GA ZONES.

CINH IS ATTEMPTING TO HOLD ON AND/OR DEVELOP OVER A WIDER
AREA...BUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THIS HAS BEEN A
DIFFICULT PROCESS AS INSTEAD WE/RE STARTING TO SEE SOME MORE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST ZONES.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE
AND A STRONG 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG KINEMATICS WITH 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR OVER 50 KT AND A THIN SLIVER OF SHREBS3 VALUES
GREATER THAN 1 UNIT SUGGESTS THAT THE QLCS THAT MOVES INTO AND
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA COULD PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND
EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. IN FACT WE HAVE SEEN BROAD AND WEAK
CIRCULATION ON THE STORM HEADING TOWARD THE SYLVANIA AREA THIS
EVENING. ANY SEVERE RISK WILL BE BY 10-11 PM.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE ALIGNMENT OF THE POP SCHEME...BUT EVERYONE
SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WITH 70-80 POPS
ACROSS THE BOARD EARLY ON...WITH COVERAGE STARTING TO WANE
OVERNIGHT FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE AND DOWN TO 30-40 POPS LATE.

THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WILL SHOW THE WARM ADVECTION WE/RE IN WITH
VERY LITTLE DOWNWARD TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE/LL ACTUALLY BE
CLOSE TO WHAT NORMAL HIGHS SHOULD BE FOR THE DAYTIME.

FOG WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE FULLY SATURATED GROUNDS AND THE
BUILD-DOWN OF STRATUS. THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY STRONG WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK...BUT WE HAVE AREAS OF FOG NONETHELESS. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF A LITTLE SEA FOG ALONG AND OFF THE
COAST...AND AS THE FLOW VEERS TO SOUTH AND SOUTH/SW SOME OF THIS
WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS WELL. FOR NOW THERE IS NO DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...BUT THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DOES ADDRESS THIS
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A HUMONGOUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD
MEXICO...WITH A STEADY BUT PROGRESSIVE MIGRATION EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DEEP AND VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INITIALLY THAT HEADS QUICKLY
NE INTO CANADA THEREAFTER. TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE IS A SOMEWHAT
DETACHED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BECOME BOGGED DOWN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING...HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER NIGHTFALL.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED IN RELATION TO THE LOCAL
ZONES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NEAR IF NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
AND SE GA. AND PWATS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NVA ALOFT AND WE/RE NOT
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS WE ARE
HESITANT TO SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS. THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING THOUGH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS CONSIDERING ITS LATE
NOVEMBER AND DECENT SHEAR...SO THERE MIGHT BE A VERY LOW END RISK OF
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER WE LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION TO FADE QUICKLY. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WE
STILL NEED TO SHOW SMALL POPS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS FAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF MORE
INSOLATION DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING TEMPS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 80 AWAY FROM THE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEACHES. AT PRESENT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE JUST SHY OF ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW MORE SPECIFIC RECORDS/. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES THAN THEY/LL BE TONIGHT AS SOME COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOG...SATURATED GROUNDS AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEA FOG IS THROWN INTO THE
MIX. ANY ANY SEA FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW REGION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL DIG THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HEADING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
OLD COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SE COAST...PROBABLY
OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. A POWERFUL UPPER JET ON
THE ORDER OF 150-175 KT OR GREATER WILL DRIVE THE SHORT WAVE...AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOME
FLUCTUATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST WILL
GENERATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND DRIER AIR
PENETRATES IN BY LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. A CONTINUE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGHER
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A PLETHORA OF WEATHER THROUGH
THE 00Z TAF CYCLE AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
AND GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST/NW LATE
MONDAY.

KCHS...THE FIRST BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE AIRFIELD IS BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING...BUT A SECOND BAND NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER 02Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.
WE ARE THEREFORE SHOWING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN TSRA AND LIGHT
FOG. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK
FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL
TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE
TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION YET AGAIN.

KSAV...THE REMNANTS OF A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINAL EARLY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN TSRA AND IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 03Z. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK
FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL
TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE
TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION YET AGAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MUCH GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
OFF THE SE COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.
BREEZY DURING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH A PACKED GRADIENT
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALL WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AS A WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT
SOME POINT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 NM SO DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE
WATERS WHERE A HUGE TEMP SPREAD WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MID-UPPER
50S WATER TEMPS AND THE WARMER MID-UPPER 60S AIR MASS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WILL
FIGHT TO HOLD ON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT TRICKLES IN
FROM THE WEST/NW LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL DECENT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND ALSO
SOME MIXING OF 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
CONSIDERABLE WE LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AND/OR FOG FROM
OVER LAND AREAS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN A HUGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND THE OVER-RIDING AIR MASS WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM...AWAITING FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THAT LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WE/LL ENJOY CONDITIONS BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961. /BROKEN TODAY/
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942. /BROKEN TODAY/
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 240014
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
714 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL BE AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH
THIS EVENING TO THE LOCAL AREA. IT IS STARTING TO PIVOT MORE
NORTH/NE RATHER THAN EASTWARD...SO IT/LL GIVE US PRETTY MUCH A
GLANCING BLOW AS IT PASSES AWAY TO THE NORTH/NW BY 06Z. AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A TRIPLE POINT/OCCLUSION NEAR AN
AREA OF CONFLUENCE NEAR OUR FAR INTERIOR GA ZONES.

CINH IS ATTEMPTING TO HOLD ON AND/OR DEVELOP OVER A WIDER
AREA...BUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THIS HAS BEEN A
DIFFICULT PROCESS AS INSTEAD WE/RE STARTING TO SEE SOME MORE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST ZONES.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE
AND A STRONG 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG KINEMATICS WITH 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR OVER 50 KT AND A THIN SLIVER OF SHREBS3 VALUES
GREATER THAN 1 UNIT SUGGESTS THAT THE QLCS THAT MOVES INTO AND
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA COULD PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND
EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. IN FACT WE HAVE SEEN BROAD AND WEAK
CIRCULATION ON THE STORM HEADING TOWARD THE SYLVANIA AREA THIS
EVENING. ANY SEVERE RISK WILL BE BY 10-11 PM.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE ALIGNMENT OF THE POP SCHEME...BUT EVERYONE
SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WITH 70-80 POPS
ACROSS THE BOARD EARLY ON...WITH COVERAGE STARTING TO WANE
OVERNIGHT FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE AND DOWN TO 30-40 POPS LATE.

THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WILL SHOW THE WARM ADVECTION WE/RE IN WITH
VERY LITTLE DOWNWARD TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE/LL ACTUALLY BE
CLOSE TO WHAT NORMAL HIGHS SHOULD BE FOR THE DAYTIME.

FOG WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE FULLY SATURATED GROUNDS AND THE
BUILD-DOWN OF STRATUS. THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY STRONG WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK...BUT WE HAVE AREAS OF FOG NONETHELESS. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF A LITTLE SEA FOG ALONG AND OFF THE
COAST...AND AS THE FLOW VEERS TO SOUTH AND SOUTH/SW SOME OF THIS
WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS WELL. FOR NOW THERE IS NO DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...BUT THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DOES ADDRESS THIS
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A HUMONGOUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD
MEXICO...WITH A STEADY BUT PROGRESSIVE MIGRATION EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DEEP AND VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INITIALLY THAT HEADS QUICKLY
NE INTO CANADA THEREAFTER. TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE IS A SOMEWHAT
DETACHED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BECOME BOGGED DOWN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING...HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER NIGHTFALL.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED IN RELATION TO THE LOCAL
ZONES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NEAR IF NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
AND SE GA. AND PWATS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NVA ALOFT AND WE/RE NOT
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS WE ARE
HESITANT TO SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS. THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING THOUGH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS CONSIDERING ITS LATE
NOVEMBER AND DECENT SHEAR...SO THERE MIGHT BE A VERY LOW END RISK OF
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER WE LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION TO FADE QUICKLY. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WE
STILL NEED TO SHOW SMALL POPS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS FAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF MORE
INSOLATION DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING TEMPS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 80 AWAY FROM THE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEACHES. AT PRESENT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE JUST SHY OF ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW MORE SPECIFIC RECORDS/. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES THAN THEY/LL BE TONIGHT AS SOME COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOG...SATURATED GROUNDS AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEA FOG IS THROWN INTO THE
MIX. ANY ANY SEA FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW REGION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL DIG THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HEADING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
OLD COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SE COAST...PROBABLY
OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. A POWERFUL UPPER JET ON
THE ORDER OF 150-175 KT OR GREATER WILL DRIVE THE SHORT WAVE...AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOME
FLUCTUATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST WILL
GENERATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND DRIER AIR
PENETRATES IN BY LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. A CONTINUE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGHER
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A PLETHORA OF WEATHER THROUGH
THE 00Z TAF CYCLE AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
AND GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST/NW LATE
MONDAY.

KCHS...THE FIRST BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE AIRFIELD IS BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING...BUT A SECOND BAND NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER 02Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.
WE ARE THEREFORE SHOWING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN TSRA AND LIGHT
FOG. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK
FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL
TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE
TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION YET AGAIN.

KSAV...THE REMNANTS OF A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINAL EARLY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN TSRA AND IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 03Z. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK
FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL
TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE
TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION YET AGAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MUCH GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
OFF THE SE COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.
BREEZY DURING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH A PACKED GRADIENT
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALL WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AS A WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT
SOME POINT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 NM SO DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE
WATERS WHERE A HUGE TEMP SPREAD WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MID-UPPER
50S WATER TEMPS AND THE WARMER MID-UPPER 60S AIR MASS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WILL
FIGHT TO HOLD ON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT TRICKLES IN
FROM THE WEST/NW LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL DECENT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND ALSO
SOME MIXING OF 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
CONSIDERABLE WE LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AND/OR FOG FROM
OVER LAND AREAS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN A HUGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND THE OVER-RIDING AIR MASS WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM...AWAITING FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THAT LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WE/LL ENJOY CONDITIONS BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961. /BROKEN TODAY/
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942. /BROKEN TODAY/
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 240014
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
714 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL BE AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH
THIS EVENING TO THE LOCAL AREA. IT IS STARTING TO PIVOT MORE
NORTH/NE RATHER THAN EASTWARD...SO IT/LL GIVE US PRETTY MUCH A
GLANCING BLOW AS IT PASSES AWAY TO THE NORTH/NW BY 06Z. AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A TRIPLE POINT/OCCLUSION NEAR AN
AREA OF CONFLUENCE NEAR OUR FAR INTERIOR GA ZONES.

CINH IS ATTEMPTING TO HOLD ON AND/OR DEVELOP OVER A WIDER
AREA...BUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THIS HAS BEEN A
DIFFICULT PROCESS AS INSTEAD WE/RE STARTING TO SEE SOME MORE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST ZONES.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE
AND A STRONG 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG KINEMATICS WITH 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR OVER 50 KT AND A THIN SLIVER OF SHREBS3 VALUES
GREATER THAN 1 UNIT SUGGESTS THAT THE QLCS THAT MOVES INTO AND
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA COULD PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND
EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. IN FACT WE HAVE SEEN BROAD AND WEAK
CIRCULATION ON THE STORM HEADING TOWARD THE SYLVANIA AREA THIS
EVENING. ANY SEVERE RISK WILL BE BY 10-11 PM.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE ALIGNMENT OF THE POP SCHEME...BUT EVERYONE
SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WITH 70-80 POPS
ACROSS THE BOARD EARLY ON...WITH COVERAGE STARTING TO WANE
OVERNIGHT FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE AND DOWN TO 30-40 POPS LATE.

THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WILL SHOW THE WARM ADVECTION WE/RE IN WITH
VERY LITTLE DOWNWARD TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE/LL ACTUALLY BE
CLOSE TO WHAT NORMAL HIGHS SHOULD BE FOR THE DAYTIME.

FOG WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE FULLY SATURATED GROUNDS AND THE
BUILD-DOWN OF STRATUS. THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY STRONG WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK...BUT WE HAVE AREAS OF FOG NONETHELESS. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF A LITTLE SEA FOG ALONG AND OFF THE
COAST...AND AS THE FLOW VEERS TO SOUTH AND SOUTH/SW SOME OF THIS
WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS WELL. FOR NOW THERE IS NO DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...BUT THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DOES ADDRESS THIS
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A HUMONGOUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD
MEXICO...WITH A STEADY BUT PROGRESSIVE MIGRATION EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DEEP AND VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INITIALLY THAT HEADS QUICKLY
NE INTO CANADA THEREAFTER. TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE IS A SOMEWHAT
DETACHED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BECOME BOGGED DOWN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING...HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER NIGHTFALL.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED IN RELATION TO THE LOCAL
ZONES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NEAR IF NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
AND SE GA. AND PWATS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NVA ALOFT AND WE/RE NOT
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS WE ARE
HESITANT TO SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS. THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING THOUGH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS CONSIDERING ITS LATE
NOVEMBER AND DECENT SHEAR...SO THERE MIGHT BE A VERY LOW END RISK OF
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER WE LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION TO FADE QUICKLY. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WE
STILL NEED TO SHOW SMALL POPS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS FAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF MORE
INSOLATION DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING TEMPS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 80 AWAY FROM THE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEACHES. AT PRESENT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE JUST SHY OF ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW MORE SPECIFIC RECORDS/. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES THAN THEY/LL BE TONIGHT AS SOME COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOG...SATURATED GROUNDS AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEA FOG IS THROWN INTO THE
MIX. ANY ANY SEA FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW REGION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL DIG THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HEADING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
OLD COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SE COAST...PROBABLY
OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. A POWERFUL UPPER JET ON
THE ORDER OF 150-175 KT OR GREATER WILL DRIVE THE SHORT WAVE...AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOME
FLUCTUATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST WILL
GENERATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND DRIER AIR
PENETRATES IN BY LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. A CONTINUE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGHER
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A PLETHORA OF WEATHER THROUGH
THE 00Z TAF CYCLE AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
AND GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST/NW LATE
MONDAY.

KCHS...THE FIRST BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE AIRFIELD IS BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING...BUT A SECOND BAND NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER 02Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.
WE ARE THEREFORE SHOWING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN TSRA AND LIGHT
FOG. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK
FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL
TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE
TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION YET AGAIN.

KSAV...THE REMNANTS OF A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINAL EARLY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN TSRA AND IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 03Z. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK
FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL
TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE
TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION YET AGAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MUCH GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
OFF THE SE COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.
BREEZY DURING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH A PACKED GRADIENT
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALL WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AS A WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT
SOME POINT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 NM SO DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE
WATERS WHERE A HUGE TEMP SPREAD WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MID-UPPER
50S WATER TEMPS AND THE WARMER MID-UPPER 60S AIR MASS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WILL
FIGHT TO HOLD ON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT TRICKLES IN
FROM THE WEST/NW LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL DECENT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND ALSO
SOME MIXING OF 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
CONSIDERABLE WE LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AND/OR FOG FROM
OVER LAND AREAS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN A HUGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND THE OVER-RIDING AIR MASS WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM...AWAITING FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THAT LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WE/LL ENJOY CONDITIONS BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961. /BROKEN TODAY/
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942. /BROKEN TODAY/
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...






  [top]

000
FXUS62 KFFC 240000
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
700 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR TORNADO WATCH COUNTIES LISTED BELOW.

31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW EAST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA INDICATING
THE WEDGE IS STILL IN PLACE. DESPITE THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH THE WEDGE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STILL BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT
INTO NORTH GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS ARE SEEING A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL GA...ANOTHER ROUND IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP. THIS
NEXT ROUND WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN POPS DECREASING OVERNIGHT. HI-RES MODELS ARE
SIMILAR IN THAT THEY DO NOT CLEAR OUT ALL THE POPS OVERNIGHT AND
THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.

BETTER INSTABILITY IS BEGINNING TO CREEP ITS WAY NORTHWARD WITH 500
J/KG JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS. IN
ADDITION....THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LL WIND SHEAR WITH 40KTS
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA /CSG TO MCN TO LGR AREA/. WITH ENOUGH
CAPE COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES...THE SE PART OF THE CWA
IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES
REMAINS AND A TORNADO WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.
STILL THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND
EAST OF THE WATCH...WATCH AREA IS JUST MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE TONIGHT...WILL SEE WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT OF THE
WARMER TEMPS AS THEY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR TUESDAY
MORNING...AFTER THE SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. WILL START
THE DAY TOMORROW WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. THIS WILL SLOW THE WARMING TREND MONDAY
MORNING...BUT WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING AND THE CWA REMAINING IN SW
FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S.
FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA...THIS IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

11

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE CWA WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO REMAIN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH GA...ALTHOUGH AT THOSE PEAKS ABOVE
3500 COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING A FINGER OF MOISTURE SKIRTING THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE THE GFS IS KEEPING THE CWA DRY. AT
THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT ANY PRECIP FOR EXTREME NORTH GA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND AS
THE H5 FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A ZONAL FLOW.

17

HYDROLOGY...
HAVE ALREADY SEEN UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HAVE NOT HAD ANY FLOODING ISSUES SO FAR. WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...COULD SEE LOCALIZED
FLOODING AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
RAIN HAS LARGELY MOVED INTO SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING WITH
DEGRADING CIGS BEHIND IT. EXPECTING IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR
CONDITIONS BY 03-06Z. SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED MONDAY AND ANY
LINGERING RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF A CSG-MCN
LINE. VFR EXPECTED BY 16-18Z. HAVE GONE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON
WIND SPEEDS...WITH GENERALLY ALL SITES SW MONDAY
MORNING...INCREASING TO 8-12KT WITH GUSTS 15-20KT AND WSW BY THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  70  41  57 / 100  20  10  10
ATLANTA         55  69  41  55 /  10  10  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     50  64  36  52 / 100  30  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  67  37  54 /  10  10  10   5
COLUMBUS        60  74  44  57 /  10  10  10  10
GAINESVILLE     52  67  41  54 /  90  20  10   5
MACON           60  76  44  58 /  80  20  10  20
ROME            52  66  35  55 /  20  10  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  69  38  56 /  10  10  10  10
VIDALIA         66  77  52  60 / 100  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BLECKLEY...DODGE...LAURENS...PULASKI...TELFAIR...
WHEELER...WILCOX.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 240000
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
700 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR TORNADO WATCH COUNTIES LISTED BELOW.

31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW EAST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA INDICATING
THE WEDGE IS STILL IN PLACE. DESPITE THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH THE WEDGE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STILL BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT
INTO NORTH GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS ARE SEEING A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL GA...ANOTHER ROUND IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP. THIS
NEXT ROUND WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN POPS DECREASING OVERNIGHT. HI-RES MODELS ARE
SIMILAR IN THAT THEY DO NOT CLEAR OUT ALL THE POPS OVERNIGHT AND
THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.

BETTER INSTABILITY IS BEGINNING TO CREEP ITS WAY NORTHWARD WITH 500
J/KG JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS. IN
ADDITION....THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LL WIND SHEAR WITH 40KTS
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA /CSG TO MCN TO LGR AREA/. WITH ENOUGH
CAPE COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES...THE SE PART OF THE CWA
IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES
REMAINS AND A TORNADO WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.
STILL THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND
EAST OF THE WATCH...WATCH AREA IS JUST MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE TONIGHT...WILL SEE WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT OF THE
WARMER TEMPS AS THEY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR TUESDAY
MORNING...AFTER THE SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. WILL START
THE DAY TOMORROW WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. THIS WILL SLOW THE WARMING TREND MONDAY
MORNING...BUT WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING AND THE CWA REMAINING IN SW
FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S.
FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA...THIS IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

11

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE CWA WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO REMAIN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH GA...ALTHOUGH AT THOSE PEAKS ABOVE
3500 COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING A FINGER OF MOISTURE SKIRTING THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE THE GFS IS KEEPING THE CWA DRY. AT
THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT ANY PRECIP FOR EXTREME NORTH GA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND AS
THE H5 FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A ZONAL FLOW.

17

HYDROLOGY...
HAVE ALREADY SEEN UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HAVE NOT HAD ANY FLOODING ISSUES SO FAR. WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...COULD SEE LOCALIZED
FLOODING AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
RAIN HAS LARGELY MOVED INTO SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING WITH
DEGRADING CIGS BEHIND IT. EXPECTING IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR
CONDITIONS BY 03-06Z. SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED MONDAY AND ANY
LINGERING RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF A CSG-MCN
LINE. VFR EXPECTED BY 16-18Z. HAVE GONE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON
WIND SPEEDS...WITH GENERALLY ALL SITES SW MONDAY
MORNING...INCREASING TO 8-12KT WITH GUSTS 15-20KT AND WSW BY THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  70  41  57 / 100  20  10  10
ATLANTA         55  69  41  55 /  10  10  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     50  64  36  52 / 100  30  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  67  37  54 /  10  10  10   5
COLUMBUS        60  74  44  57 /  10  10  10  10
GAINESVILLE     52  67  41  54 /  90  20  10   5
MACON           60  76  44  58 /  80  20  10  20
ROME            52  66  35  55 /  20  10  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  69  38  56 /  10  10  10  10
VIDALIA         66  77  52  60 / 100  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BLECKLEY...DODGE...LAURENS...PULASKI...TELFAIR...
WHEELER...WILCOX.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 240000
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
700 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR TORNADO WATCH COUNTIES LISTED BELOW.

31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW EAST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA INDICATING
THE WEDGE IS STILL IN PLACE. DESPITE THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH THE WEDGE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STILL BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT
INTO NORTH GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS ARE SEEING A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL GA...ANOTHER ROUND IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP. THIS
NEXT ROUND WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN POPS DECREASING OVERNIGHT. HI-RES MODELS ARE
SIMILAR IN THAT THEY DO NOT CLEAR OUT ALL THE POPS OVERNIGHT AND
THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.

BETTER INSTABILITY IS BEGINNING TO CREEP ITS WAY NORTHWARD WITH 500
J/KG JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS. IN
ADDITION....THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LL WIND SHEAR WITH 40KTS
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA /CSG TO MCN TO LGR AREA/. WITH ENOUGH
CAPE COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES...THE SE PART OF THE CWA
IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES
REMAINS AND A TORNADO WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.
STILL THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND
EAST OF THE WATCH...WATCH AREA IS JUST MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE TONIGHT...WILL SEE WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT OF THE
WARMER TEMPS AS THEY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR TUESDAY
MORNING...AFTER THE SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. WILL START
THE DAY TOMORROW WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. THIS WILL SLOW THE WARMING TREND MONDAY
MORNING...BUT WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING AND THE CWA REMAINING IN SW
FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S.
FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA...THIS IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

11

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE CWA WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO REMAIN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH GA...ALTHOUGH AT THOSE PEAKS ABOVE
3500 COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING A FINGER OF MOISTURE SKIRTING THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE THE GFS IS KEEPING THE CWA DRY. AT
THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT ANY PRECIP FOR EXTREME NORTH GA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND AS
THE H5 FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A ZONAL FLOW.

17

HYDROLOGY...
HAVE ALREADY SEEN UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HAVE NOT HAD ANY FLOODING ISSUES SO FAR. WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...COULD SEE LOCALIZED
FLOODING AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
RAIN HAS LARGELY MOVED INTO SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING WITH
DEGRADING CIGS BEHIND IT. EXPECTING IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR
CONDITIONS BY 03-06Z. SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED MONDAY AND ANY
LINGERING RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF A CSG-MCN
LINE. VFR EXPECTED BY 16-18Z. HAVE GONE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON
WIND SPEEDS...WITH GENERALLY ALL SITES SW MONDAY
MORNING...INCREASING TO 8-12KT WITH GUSTS 15-20KT AND WSW BY THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  70  41  57 / 100  20  10  10
ATLANTA         55  69  41  55 /  10  10  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     50  64  36  52 / 100  30  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  67  37  54 /  10  10  10   5
COLUMBUS        60  74  44  57 /  10  10  10  10
GAINESVILLE     52  67  41  54 /  90  20  10   5
MACON           60  76  44  58 /  80  20  10  20
ROME            52  66  35  55 /  20  10  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  69  38  56 /  10  10  10  10
VIDALIA         66  77  52  60 / 100  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BLECKLEY...DODGE...LAURENS...PULASKI...TELFAIR...
WHEELER...WILCOX.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 240000
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
700 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR TORNADO WATCH COUNTIES LISTED BELOW.

31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW EAST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA INDICATING
THE WEDGE IS STILL IN PLACE. DESPITE THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH THE WEDGE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STILL BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT
INTO NORTH GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS ARE SEEING A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL GA...ANOTHER ROUND IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP. THIS
NEXT ROUND WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN POPS DECREASING OVERNIGHT. HI-RES MODELS ARE
SIMILAR IN THAT THEY DO NOT CLEAR OUT ALL THE POPS OVERNIGHT AND
THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.

BETTER INSTABILITY IS BEGINNING TO CREEP ITS WAY NORTHWARD WITH 500
J/KG JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS. IN
ADDITION....THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LL WIND SHEAR WITH 40KTS
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA /CSG TO MCN TO LGR AREA/. WITH ENOUGH
CAPE COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES...THE SE PART OF THE CWA
IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES
REMAINS AND A TORNADO WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.
STILL THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND
EAST OF THE WATCH...WATCH AREA IS JUST MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE TONIGHT...WILL SEE WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT OF THE
WARMER TEMPS AS THEY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR TUESDAY
MORNING...AFTER THE SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. WILL START
THE DAY TOMORROW WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. THIS WILL SLOW THE WARMING TREND MONDAY
MORNING...BUT WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING AND THE CWA REMAINING IN SW
FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S.
FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA...THIS IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

11

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE CWA WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO REMAIN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH GA...ALTHOUGH AT THOSE PEAKS ABOVE
3500 COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING A FINGER OF MOISTURE SKIRTING THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE THE GFS IS KEEPING THE CWA DRY. AT
THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT ANY PRECIP FOR EXTREME NORTH GA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND AS
THE H5 FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A ZONAL FLOW.

17

HYDROLOGY...
HAVE ALREADY SEEN UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HAVE NOT HAD ANY FLOODING ISSUES SO FAR. WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...COULD SEE LOCALIZED
FLOODING AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
RAIN HAS LARGELY MOVED INTO SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING WITH
DEGRADING CIGS BEHIND IT. EXPECTING IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR
CONDITIONS BY 03-06Z. SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED MONDAY AND ANY
LINGERING RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF A CSG-MCN
LINE. VFR EXPECTED BY 16-18Z. HAVE GONE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON
WIND SPEEDS...WITH GENERALLY ALL SITES SW MONDAY
MORNING...INCREASING TO 8-12KT WITH GUSTS 15-20KT AND WSW BY THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  70  41  57 / 100  20  10  10
ATLANTA         55  69  41  55 /  10  10  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     50  64  36  52 / 100  30  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  67  37  54 /  10  10  10   5
COLUMBUS        60  74  44  57 /  10  10  10  10
GAINESVILLE     52  67  41  54 /  90  20  10   5
MACON           60  76  44  58 /  80  20  10  20
ROME            52  66  35  55 /  20  10  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  69  38  56 /  10  10  10  10
VIDALIA         66  77  52  60 / 100  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BLECKLEY...DODGE...LAURENS...PULASKI...TELFAIR...
WHEELER...WILCOX.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCAE 232349
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
544 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST AND NORTH MIDLANDS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS/CSRA WITH CAPE TO AROUND
200 J/KG. ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM GEORGIA.
LINE OF STRONGER CONVECTION IN CENTRAL GEORGIA ASSOCIATED WITH
60-65 KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET...AND AHEAD OF POTENT MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST...WITH SOME WEAKENING
NOTED ON THE NORTHERN FLANK. NEAR SURFACE BASED STABLE LAYER
SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE WILL BE STRONG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING. STRONGEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE FOCUS IN THE LOWER
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA/POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS WHERE WEAK SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY/ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOCATED. WITH CONVECTION
INCREASING CONTINUED HIGH POPS ACROSS THE CWA...AND TEMPERATURES
RISING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST...SO WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING.


RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.  AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE
WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP
NICELY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO BE CLOSE TO
THE COAST...AND HAVE DRIED FORECAST OUT FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES EAST OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S.

FOR TUESDAY THE LATEST MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION
POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH THE RAINFALL AND
CLOUDS INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

BY TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.
CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS
AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND
THE SYSTEM AND COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONCE WE GET INTO THANKSGIVING AND THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET
DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM 0Z TO 4Z PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VERY STRONG AND
SOME OF THIS WIND MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE SQUALL LINE.
CEILINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER TOMORROW. ALL TAF SITES WILL
REMAIN IN IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING... LIFTING TO
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 18Z. STRONG SURFACE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
TOMORROW GUSTING UP TO 25 KT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS AS WELL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHWARD NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 232349
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
544 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST AND NORTH MIDLANDS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS/CSRA WITH CAPE TO AROUND
200 J/KG. ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM GEORGIA.
LINE OF STRONGER CONVECTION IN CENTRAL GEORGIA ASSOCIATED WITH
60-65 KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET...AND AHEAD OF POTENT MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST...WITH SOME WEAKENING
NOTED ON THE NORTHERN FLANK. NEAR SURFACE BASED STABLE LAYER
SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE WILL BE STRONG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING. STRONGEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE FOCUS IN THE LOWER
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA/POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS WHERE WEAK SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY/ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOCATED. WITH CONVECTION
INCREASING CONTINUED HIGH POPS ACROSS THE CWA...AND TEMPERATURES
RISING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST...SO WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING.


RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.  AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE
WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP
NICELY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO BE CLOSE TO
THE COAST...AND HAVE DRIED FORECAST OUT FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES EAST OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S.

FOR TUESDAY THE LATEST MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION
POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH THE RAINFALL AND
CLOUDS INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

BY TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.
CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS
AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND
THE SYSTEM AND COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONCE WE GET INTO THANKSGIVING AND THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET
DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM 0Z TO 4Z PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VERY STRONG AND
SOME OF THIS WIND MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE SQUALL LINE.
CEILINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER TOMORROW. ALL TAF SITES WILL
REMAIN IN IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING... LIFTING TO
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 18Z. STRONG SURFACE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
TOMORROW GUSTING UP TO 25 KT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS AS WELL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHWARD NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 232349
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
544 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST AND NORTH MIDLANDS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS/CSRA WITH CAPE TO AROUND
200 J/KG. ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM GEORGIA.
LINE OF STRONGER CONVECTION IN CENTRAL GEORGIA ASSOCIATED WITH
60-65 KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET...AND AHEAD OF POTENT MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST...WITH SOME WEAKENING
NOTED ON THE NORTHERN FLANK. NEAR SURFACE BASED STABLE LAYER
SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE WILL BE STRONG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING. STRONGEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE FOCUS IN THE LOWER
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA/POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS WHERE WEAK SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY/ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOCATED. WITH CONVECTION
INCREASING CONTINUED HIGH POPS ACROSS THE CWA...AND TEMPERATURES
RISING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST...SO WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING.


RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.  AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE
WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP
NICELY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO BE CLOSE TO
THE COAST...AND HAVE DRIED FORECAST OUT FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES EAST OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S.

FOR TUESDAY THE LATEST MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION
POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH THE RAINFALL AND
CLOUDS INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

BY TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.
CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS
AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND
THE SYSTEM AND COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONCE WE GET INTO THANKSGIVING AND THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET
DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM 0Z TO 4Z PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VERY STRONG AND
SOME OF THIS WIND MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE SQUALL LINE.
CEILINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER TOMORROW. ALL TAF SITES WILL
REMAIN IN IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING... LIFTING TO
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 18Z. STRONG SURFACE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
TOMORROW GUSTING UP TO 25 KT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS AS WELL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHWARD NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 232349
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
544 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST AND NORTH MIDLANDS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS/CSRA WITH CAPE TO AROUND
200 J/KG. ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM GEORGIA.
LINE OF STRONGER CONVECTION IN CENTRAL GEORGIA ASSOCIATED WITH
60-65 KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET...AND AHEAD OF POTENT MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST...WITH SOME WEAKENING
NOTED ON THE NORTHERN FLANK. NEAR SURFACE BASED STABLE LAYER
SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE WILL BE STRONG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING. STRONGEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE FOCUS IN THE LOWER
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA/POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS WHERE WEAK SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY/ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOCATED. WITH CONVECTION
INCREASING CONTINUED HIGH POPS ACROSS THE CWA...AND TEMPERATURES
RISING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST...SO WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING.


RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.  AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE
WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP
NICELY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO BE CLOSE TO
THE COAST...AND HAVE DRIED FORECAST OUT FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES EAST OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S.

FOR TUESDAY THE LATEST MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION
POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH THE RAINFALL AND
CLOUDS INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

BY TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.
CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS
AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND
THE SYSTEM AND COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONCE WE GET INTO THANKSGIVING AND THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET
DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM 0Z TO 4Z PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VERY STRONG AND
SOME OF THIS WIND MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE SQUALL LINE.
CEILINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER TOMORROW. ALL TAF SITES WILL
REMAIN IN IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING... LIFTING TO
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 18Z. STRONG SURFACE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
TOMORROW GUSTING UP TO 25 KT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS AS WELL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHWARD NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 232244
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
544 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST AND NORTH MIDLANDS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS/CSRA WITH CAPE TO AROUND
200 J/KG. ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM GEORGIA.
LINE OF STRONGER CONVECTION IN CENTRAL GEORGIA ASSOCIATED WITH
60-65 KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET...AND AHEAD OF POTENT MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST...WITH SOME WEAKENING
NOTED ON THE NORTHERN FLANK. NEAR SURFACE BASED STABLE LAYER
SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE WILL BE STRONG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING. STRONGEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE FOCUS IN THE LOWER
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA/POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS WHERE WEAK SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY/ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOCATED. WITH CONVECTION
INCREASING CONTINUED HIGH POPS ACROSS THE CWA...AND TEMPERATURES
RISING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST...SO WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING.


RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.  AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE
WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP
NICELY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO BE CLOSE TO
THE COAST...AND HAVE DRIED FORECAST OUT FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES EAST OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S.

FOR TUESDAY THE LATEST MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION
POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH THE RAINFALL AND
CLOUDS INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

BY TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.
CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS
AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND
THE SYSTEM AND COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONCE WE GET INTO THANKSGIVING AND THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET
DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS.
THE FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO
DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SQUALL LINE COULD CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE A LINE OF WEAKENING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VERY STRONG AND SOME OF THIS WIND MAY
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE OR WITH ANY
OTHER STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BASED ON THE NAM AND 88D VAD WIND
PROFILES WE HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
MAY OCCUR IN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS MAY ALSO OCCUR MONDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHWARD NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 232244
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
544 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST AND NORTH MIDLANDS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS/CSRA WITH CAPE TO AROUND
200 J/KG. ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM GEORGIA.
LINE OF STRONGER CONVECTION IN CENTRAL GEORGIA ASSOCIATED WITH
60-65 KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET...AND AHEAD OF POTENT MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST...WITH SOME WEAKENING
NOTED ON THE NORTHERN FLANK. NEAR SURFACE BASED STABLE LAYER
SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE WILL BE STRONG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING. STRONGEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE FOCUS IN THE LOWER
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA/POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS WHERE WEAK SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY/ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOCATED. WITH CONVECTION
INCREASING CONTINUED HIGH POPS ACROSS THE CWA...AND TEMPERATURES
RISING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST...SO WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING.


RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.  AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE
WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP
NICELY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO BE CLOSE TO
THE COAST...AND HAVE DRIED FORECAST OUT FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES EAST OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S.

FOR TUESDAY THE LATEST MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION
POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH THE RAINFALL AND
CLOUDS INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

BY TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.
CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS
AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND
THE SYSTEM AND COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONCE WE GET INTO THANKSGIVING AND THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET
DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS.
THE FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO
DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SQUALL LINE COULD CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE A LINE OF WEAKENING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VERY STRONG AND SOME OF THIS WIND MAY
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE OR WITH ANY
OTHER STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BASED ON THE NAM AND 88D VAD WIND
PROFILES WE HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
MAY OCCUR IN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS MAY ALSO OCCUR MONDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHWARD NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 232230
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR TORNADO WATCH COUNTIES LISTED BELOW.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW EAST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA INDICATING
THE WEDGE IS STILL IN PLACE. DESPITE THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH THE WEDGE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STILL BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT
INTO NORTH GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS ARE SEEING A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL GA...ANOTHER ROUND IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP. THIS
NEXT ROUND WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN POPS DECREASING OVERNIGHT. HI-RES MODELS ARE
SIMILAR IN THAT THEY DO NOT CLEAR OUT ALL THE POPS OVERNIGHT AND
THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.

BETTER INSTABILITY IS BEGINNING TO CREEP ITS WAY NORTHWARD WITH 500
J/KG JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS. IN
ADDITION....THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LL WIND SHEAR WITH 40KTS
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA /CSG TO MCN TO LGR AREA/. WITH ENOUGH
CAPE COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES...THE SE PART OF THE CWA
IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES
REMAINS AND A TORNADO WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.
STILL THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND
EAST OF THE WATCH...WATCH AREA IS JUST MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE TONIGHT...WILL SEE WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT OF THE
WARMER TEMPS AS THEY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR TUESDAY
MORNING...AFTER THE SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. WILL START
THE DAY TOMORROW WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. THIS WILL SLOW THE WARMING TREND MONDAY
MORNING...BUT WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING AND THE CWA REMAINING IN SW
FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S.
FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA...THIS IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

11

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE CWA WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO REMAIN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH GA...ALTHOUGH AT THOSE PEAKS ABOVE
3500 COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING A FINGER OF MOISTURE SKIRTING THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE THE GFS IS KEEPING THE CWA DRY. AT
THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT ANY PRECIP FOR EXTREME NORTH GA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND AS
THE H5 FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A ZONAL FLOW.

17

HYDROLOGY...
HAVE ALREADY SEEN UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HAVE NOT HAD ANY FLOODING ISSUES SO FAR. WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...COULD SEE LOCALIZED
FLOODING AS A RESULT.

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. THERES A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP AT MCN AND CSG BUT SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL RA
LATER. COULD SEE A SHORT BREAK AT NORTHERN TAF SITES TOO LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA COVERAGE IS LIMITED BUT WITH CONVECTION
MAKING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...HAVE CONTINUED TEMPO IN
THE ATL SITES. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT
HAVENT GONE QUITE AS LOW AS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AT ATL. WIND
SHIFT AT ATL IN THE 00-04Z TIMEFRAME.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND DUE TO WIND SHIFT TIMING. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON CIGS AND VSBYS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  70  41  57 / 100  20  10  10
ATLANTA         55  69  41  55 /  80  10  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     50  64  36  52 / 100  30  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  67  37  54 /  80  10  10   5
COLUMBUS        60  74  44  57 /  50  20  10  10
GAINESVILLE     52  67  41  54 / 100  20  10   5
MACON           60  76  44  58 /  90  30  10  20
ROME            52  66  35  55 /  70  10  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  69  38  56 /  70  10  10  10
VIDALIA         66  77  52  60 / 100  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BLECKLEY...DODGE...LAURENS...PULASKI...TELFAIR...TWIGGS...
WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31



000
FXUS62 KFFC 232230
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR TORNADO WATCH COUNTIES LISTED BELOW.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW EAST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA INDICATING
THE WEDGE IS STILL IN PLACE. DESPITE THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH THE WEDGE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STILL BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT
INTO NORTH GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS ARE SEEING A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL GA...ANOTHER ROUND IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP. THIS
NEXT ROUND WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN POPS DECREASING OVERNIGHT. HI-RES MODELS ARE
SIMILAR IN THAT THEY DO NOT CLEAR OUT ALL THE POPS OVERNIGHT AND
THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.

BETTER INSTABILITY IS BEGINNING TO CREEP ITS WAY NORTHWARD WITH 500
J/KG JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS. IN
ADDITION....THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LL WIND SHEAR WITH 40KTS
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA /CSG TO MCN TO LGR AREA/. WITH ENOUGH
CAPE COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES...THE SE PART OF THE CWA
IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES
REMAINS AND A TORNADO WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.
STILL THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND
EAST OF THE WATCH...WATCH AREA IS JUST MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE TONIGHT...WILL SEE WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT OF THE
WARMER TEMPS AS THEY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR TUESDAY
MORNING...AFTER THE SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. WILL START
THE DAY TOMORROW WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. THIS WILL SLOW THE WARMING TREND MONDAY
MORNING...BUT WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING AND THE CWA REMAINING IN SW
FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S.
FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA...THIS IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

11

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE CWA WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO REMAIN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH GA...ALTHOUGH AT THOSE PEAKS ABOVE
3500 COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING A FINGER OF MOISTURE SKIRTING THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE THE GFS IS KEEPING THE CWA DRY. AT
THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT ANY PRECIP FOR EXTREME NORTH GA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND AS
THE H5 FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A ZONAL FLOW.

17

HYDROLOGY...
HAVE ALREADY SEEN UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HAVE NOT HAD ANY FLOODING ISSUES SO FAR. WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...COULD SEE LOCALIZED
FLOODING AS A RESULT.

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. THERES A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP AT MCN AND CSG BUT SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL RA
LATER. COULD SEE A SHORT BREAK AT NORTHERN TAF SITES TOO LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA COVERAGE IS LIMITED BUT WITH CONVECTION
MAKING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...HAVE CONTINUED TEMPO IN
THE ATL SITES. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT
HAVENT GONE QUITE AS LOW AS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AT ATL. WIND
SHIFT AT ATL IN THE 00-04Z TIMEFRAME.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND DUE TO WIND SHIFT TIMING. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON CIGS AND VSBYS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  70  41  57 / 100  20  10  10
ATLANTA         55  69  41  55 /  80  10  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     50  64  36  52 / 100  30  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  67  37  54 /  80  10  10   5
COLUMBUS        60  74  44  57 /  50  20  10  10
GAINESVILLE     52  67  41  54 / 100  20  10   5
MACON           60  76  44  58 /  90  30  10  20
ROME            52  66  35  55 /  70  10  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  69  38  56 /  70  10  10  10
VIDALIA         66  77  52  60 / 100  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BLECKLEY...DODGE...LAURENS...PULASKI...TELFAIR...TWIGGS...
WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 232207
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
507 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR TORNADO WATCH COUNTIES LISTED BELOW.

31


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW EAST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA INDICATING
THE WEDGE IS STILL IN PLACE. DESPITE THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH THE WEDGE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STILL BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT
INTO NORTH GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS ARE SEEING A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL GA...ANOTHER ROUND IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP. THIS
NEXT ROUND WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN POPS DECREASING OVERNIGHT. HI-RES MODELS ARE
SIMILAR IN THAT THEY DO NOT CLEAR OUT ALL THE POPS OVERNIGHT AND
THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.

BETTER INSTABILITY IS BEGINNING TO CREEP ITS WAY NORTHWARD WITH 500
J/KG JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS. IN
ADDITION....THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LL WIND SHEAR WITH 40KTS
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA /CSG TO MCN TO LGR AREA/. WITH ENOUGH
CAPE COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES...THE SE PART OF THE CWA
IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES
REMAINS AND A TORNADO WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.
STILL THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND
EAST OF THE WATCH...WATCH AREA IS JUST MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE TONIGHT...WILL SEE WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT OF THE
WARMER TEMPS AS THEY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR TUESDAY
MORNING...AFTER THE SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. WILL START
THE DAY TOMORROW WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. THIS WILL SLOW THE WARMING TREND MONDAY
MORNING...BUT WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING AND THE CWA REMAINING IN SW
FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S.
FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA...THIS IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

11

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE CWA WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO REMAIN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH GA...ALTHOUGH AT THOSE PEAKS ABOVE
3500 COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING A FINGER OF MOISTURE SKIRTING THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE THE GFS IS KEEPING THE CWA DRY. AT
THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT ANY PRECIP FOR EXTREME NORTH GA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND AS
THE H5 FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A ZONAL FLOW.

17

HYDROLOGY...
HAVE ALREADY SEEN UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HAVE NOT HAD ANY FLOODING ISSUES SO FAR. WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...COULD SEE LOCALIZED
FLOODING AS A RESULT.

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. THERES A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP AT MCN AND CSG BUT SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL RA
LATER. COULD SEE A SHORT BREAK AT NORTHERN TAF SITES TOO LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA COVERAGE IS LIMITED BUT WITH CONVECTION
MAKING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...HAVE CONTINUED TEMPO IN
THE ATL SITES. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT
HAVENT GONE QUITE AS LOW AS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AT ATL. WIND
SHIFT AT ATL IN THE 00-04Z TIMEFRAME.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND DUE TO WIND SHIFT TIMING. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON CIGS AND VSBYS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  70  41  57 / 100  20  10  10
ATLANTA         55  69  41  55 /  90  10  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     50  64  36  52 / 100  30  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  67  37  54 /  70  10  10   5
COLUMBUS        60  74  44  57 /  90  20  10  10
GAINESVILLE     52  67  41  54 / 100  20  10   5
MACON           60  76  44  58 / 100  30  10  20
ROME            52  66  35  55 /  60  10  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  69  38  56 /  90  10  10  10
VIDALIA         66  77  52  60 / 100  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...
HOUSTON...LAURENS...MACON...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...SUMTER...
TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TWIGGS...UPSON...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 232207
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
507 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR TORNADO WATCH COUNTIES LISTED BELOW.

31


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW EAST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA INDICATING
THE WEDGE IS STILL IN PLACE. DESPITE THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH THE WEDGE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STILL BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT
INTO NORTH GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS ARE SEEING A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL GA...ANOTHER ROUND IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP. THIS
NEXT ROUND WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN POPS DECREASING OVERNIGHT. HI-RES MODELS ARE
SIMILAR IN THAT THEY DO NOT CLEAR OUT ALL THE POPS OVERNIGHT AND
THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.

BETTER INSTABILITY IS BEGINNING TO CREEP ITS WAY NORTHWARD WITH 500
J/KG JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS. IN
ADDITION....THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LL WIND SHEAR WITH 40KTS
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA /CSG TO MCN TO LGR AREA/. WITH ENOUGH
CAPE COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES...THE SE PART OF THE CWA
IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES
REMAINS AND A TORNADO WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.
STILL THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND
EAST OF THE WATCH...WATCH AREA IS JUST MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE TONIGHT...WILL SEE WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT OF THE
WARMER TEMPS AS THEY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR TUESDAY
MORNING...AFTER THE SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. WILL START
THE DAY TOMORROW WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. THIS WILL SLOW THE WARMING TREND MONDAY
MORNING...BUT WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING AND THE CWA REMAINING IN SW
FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S.
FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA...THIS IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

11

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE CWA WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO REMAIN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH GA...ALTHOUGH AT THOSE PEAKS ABOVE
3500 COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING A FINGER OF MOISTURE SKIRTING THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE THE GFS IS KEEPING THE CWA DRY. AT
THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT ANY PRECIP FOR EXTREME NORTH GA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND AS
THE H5 FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A ZONAL FLOW.

17

HYDROLOGY...
HAVE ALREADY SEEN UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HAVE NOT HAD ANY FLOODING ISSUES SO FAR. WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...COULD SEE LOCALIZED
FLOODING AS A RESULT.

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. THERES A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP AT MCN AND CSG BUT SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL RA
LATER. COULD SEE A SHORT BREAK AT NORTHERN TAF SITES TOO LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA COVERAGE IS LIMITED BUT WITH CONVECTION
MAKING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...HAVE CONTINUED TEMPO IN
THE ATL SITES. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT
HAVENT GONE QUITE AS LOW AS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AT ATL. WIND
SHIFT AT ATL IN THE 00-04Z TIMEFRAME.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND DUE TO WIND SHIFT TIMING. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON CIGS AND VSBYS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  70  41  57 / 100  20  10  10
ATLANTA         55  69  41  55 /  90  10  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     50  64  36  52 / 100  30  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  67  37  54 /  70  10  10   5
COLUMBUS        60  74  44  57 /  90  20  10  10
GAINESVILLE     52  67  41  54 / 100  20  10   5
MACON           60  76  44  58 / 100  30  10  20
ROME            52  66  35  55 /  60  10  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  69  38  56 /  90  10  10  10
VIDALIA         66  77  52  60 / 100  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...
HOUSTON...LAURENS...MACON...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...SUMTER...
TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TWIGGS...UPSON...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31



000
FXUS62 KFFC 232207
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
507 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR TORNADO WATCH COUNTIES LISTED BELOW.

31


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW EAST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA INDICATING
THE WEDGE IS STILL IN PLACE. DESPITE THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH THE WEDGE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STILL BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT
INTO NORTH GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS ARE SEEING A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL GA...ANOTHER ROUND IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP. THIS
NEXT ROUND WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN POPS DECREASING OVERNIGHT. HI-RES MODELS ARE
SIMILAR IN THAT THEY DO NOT CLEAR OUT ALL THE POPS OVERNIGHT AND
THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.

BETTER INSTABILITY IS BEGINNING TO CREEP ITS WAY NORTHWARD WITH 500
J/KG JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS. IN
ADDITION....THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LL WIND SHEAR WITH 40KTS
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA /CSG TO MCN TO LGR AREA/. WITH ENOUGH
CAPE COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES...THE SE PART OF THE CWA
IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES
REMAINS AND A TORNADO WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.
STILL THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND
EAST OF THE WATCH...WATCH AREA IS JUST MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE TONIGHT...WILL SEE WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT OF THE
WARMER TEMPS AS THEY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR TUESDAY
MORNING...AFTER THE SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. WILL START
THE DAY TOMORROW WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. THIS WILL SLOW THE WARMING TREND MONDAY
MORNING...BUT WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING AND THE CWA REMAINING IN SW
FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S.
FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA...THIS IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

11

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE CWA WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO REMAIN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH GA...ALTHOUGH AT THOSE PEAKS ABOVE
3500 COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING A FINGER OF MOISTURE SKIRTING THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE THE GFS IS KEEPING THE CWA DRY. AT
THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT ANY PRECIP FOR EXTREME NORTH GA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND AS
THE H5 FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A ZONAL FLOW.

17

HYDROLOGY...
HAVE ALREADY SEEN UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HAVE NOT HAD ANY FLOODING ISSUES SO FAR. WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...COULD SEE LOCALIZED
FLOODING AS A RESULT.

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. THERES A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP AT MCN AND CSG BUT SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL RA
LATER. COULD SEE A SHORT BREAK AT NORTHERN TAF SITES TOO LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA COVERAGE IS LIMITED BUT WITH CONVECTION
MAKING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...HAVE CONTINUED TEMPO IN
THE ATL SITES. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT
HAVENT GONE QUITE AS LOW AS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AT ATL. WIND
SHIFT AT ATL IN THE 00-04Z TIMEFRAME.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND DUE TO WIND SHIFT TIMING. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON CIGS AND VSBYS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  70  41  57 / 100  20  10  10
ATLANTA         55  69  41  55 /  90  10  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     50  64  36  52 / 100  30  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  67  37  54 /  70  10  10   5
COLUMBUS        60  74  44  57 /  90  20  10  10
GAINESVILLE     52  67  41  54 / 100  20  10   5
MACON           60  76  44  58 / 100  30  10  20
ROME            52  66  35  55 /  60  10  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  69  38  56 /  90  10  10  10
VIDALIA         66  77  52  60 / 100  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...
HOUSTON...LAURENS...MACON...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...SUMTER...
TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TWIGGS...UPSON...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KCHS 232124
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
424 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTH AND APPEARS CLOSE TO I-16
IN GEORGIA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA WHERE SOME MINOR INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AS INDICATED BY
1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AS PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME DAMAGING WIND REPORTS UPSTREAM
SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS BUT DIURNAL COOLING ALONG WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTHWARD MORE THAN EASTWARD SUGGEST THE LINE WILL BE ON A
WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST GA/SC. SPC IS WATCHING
SOUTHEAST GA ESPECIALLY FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH SO WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR SURE.

OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT NOT TO ZERO
AS THERE IS STILL SOME LIFT/MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT. OF MORE
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DUE TO THE ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...LIKELY MORE A RESULT OF STRATUS BUILDING
DOWN TO THE GROUND AND/OR SEA FOG ADVECTING ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A HUMONGOUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD
MEXICO...WITH A STEADY BUT PROGRESSIVE MIGRATION EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DEEP AND VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INITIALLY THAT HEADS QUICKLY
NE INTO CANADA THEREAFTER. TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE IS A SOMEWHAT
DETACHED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BECOME BOGGED DOWN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING...HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER NIGHTFALL.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED IN RELATION TO THE LOCAL
ZONES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NEAR IF NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
AND SE GA. AND PWATS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NVA ALOFT AND WE/RE NOT
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS WE ARE
HESITANT TO SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS. THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING THOUGH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS CONSIDERING ITS LATE
NOVEMBER AND DECENT SHEAR...SO THERE MIGHT BE A VERY LOW END RISK OF
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER WE LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION TO FADE QUICKLY. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WE
STILL NEED TO SHOW SMALL POPS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS FAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF MORE
INSOLATION DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING TEMPS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 80 AWAY FROM THE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEACHES. AT PRESENT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE JUST SHY OF ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW MORE SPECIFIC RECORDS/. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES THAN THEY/LL BE TONIGHT AS SOME COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOG...SATURATED GROUNDS AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEA FOG IS THROWN INTO THE
MIX. ANY ANY SEA FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW REGION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL DIG THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HEADING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
OLD COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SE COAST...PROBABLY
OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. A POWERFUL UPPER JET ON
THE ORDER OF 150-175 KT OR GREATER WILL DRIVE THE SHORT WAVE...AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOME
FLUCTUATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST WILL
GENERATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND DRIER AIR
PENETRATES IN BY LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. A CONTINUE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGHER
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KCHS...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS
EVENING WE EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR WITH VSBYS ALSO
DROPPING THROUGH LATE NIGHT AS STRATUS BUILDS DOWN BENEATH THE
INVERSION. IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSAV...IFR CEILING/VSBY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR
BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN. A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINAL LATE THIS EVENING THOUGH THE CHANCES OF A
CONTIGUOUS BAND MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS KSAV ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE 18Z TAFS. LATER TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
BENEATH A LOWERING INVERSION...IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO MID MONDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO
MVFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD ANY ISOLATED TO CONVECTION IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...A MUCH GREATER CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT OFF
THE SE COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER. BREEZY AT
TIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR THE
GULF STREAM WHERE GALE FORCE GUSTS NEAR 35-40 KT ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW- LEVEL
JET BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...BUT BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL LINGER WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT OUTSIDE OF CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE SEA FOG AS A WARM/HUMID AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MOVE IN.
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT WITH
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 NM SO DENSE FOG ADVISORIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WILL
FIGHT TO HOLD ON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT TRICKLES IN
FROM THE WEST/NW LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL DECENT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND ALSO
SOME MIXING OF 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
CONSIDERABLE WE LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AND/OR FOG FROM
OVER LAND AREAS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN A HUGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND THE OVER-RIDING AIR MASS WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM...AWAITING FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THAT LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WE/LL ENJOY CONDITIONS BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961. /BROKEN TODAY/
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942. /BROKEN TODAY/
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 232124
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
424 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTH AND APPEARS CLOSE TO I-16
IN GEORGIA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA WHERE SOME MINOR INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AS INDICATED BY
1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AS PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME DAMAGING WIND REPORTS UPSTREAM
SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS BUT DIURNAL COOLING ALONG WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTHWARD MORE THAN EASTWARD SUGGEST THE LINE WILL BE ON A
WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST GA/SC. SPC IS WATCHING
SOUTHEAST GA ESPECIALLY FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH SO WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR SURE.

OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT NOT TO ZERO
AS THERE IS STILL SOME LIFT/MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT. OF MORE
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DUE TO THE ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...LIKELY MORE A RESULT OF STRATUS BUILDING
DOWN TO THE GROUND AND/OR SEA FOG ADVECTING ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A HUMONGOUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD
MEXICO...WITH A STEADY BUT PROGRESSIVE MIGRATION EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DEEP AND VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INITIALLY THAT HEADS QUICKLY
NE INTO CANADA THEREAFTER. TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE IS A SOMEWHAT
DETACHED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BECOME BOGGED DOWN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING...HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER NIGHTFALL.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED IN RELATION TO THE LOCAL
ZONES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NEAR IF NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
AND SE GA. AND PWATS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NVA ALOFT AND WE/RE NOT
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS WE ARE
HESITANT TO SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS. THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING THOUGH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS CONSIDERING ITS LATE
NOVEMBER AND DECENT SHEAR...SO THERE MIGHT BE A VERY LOW END RISK OF
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER WE LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION TO FADE QUICKLY. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WE
STILL NEED TO SHOW SMALL POPS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS FAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF MORE
INSOLATION DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING TEMPS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 80 AWAY FROM THE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEACHES. AT PRESENT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE JUST SHY OF ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW MORE SPECIFIC RECORDS/. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES THAN THEY/LL BE TONIGHT AS SOME COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOG...SATURATED GROUNDS AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEA FOG IS THROWN INTO THE
MIX. ANY ANY SEA FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW REGION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL DIG THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HEADING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
OLD COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SE COAST...PROBABLY
OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. A POWERFUL UPPER JET ON
THE ORDER OF 150-175 KT OR GREATER WILL DRIVE THE SHORT WAVE...AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOME
FLUCTUATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST WILL
GENERATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND DRIER AIR
PENETRATES IN BY LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. A CONTINUE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGHER
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KCHS...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS
EVENING WE EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR WITH VSBYS ALSO
DROPPING THROUGH LATE NIGHT AS STRATUS BUILDS DOWN BENEATH THE
INVERSION. IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSAV...IFR CEILING/VSBY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR
BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN. A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINAL LATE THIS EVENING THOUGH THE CHANCES OF A
CONTIGUOUS BAND MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS KSAV ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE 18Z TAFS. LATER TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
BENEATH A LOWERING INVERSION...IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO MID MONDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO
MVFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD ANY ISOLATED TO CONVECTION IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...A MUCH GREATER CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT OFF
THE SE COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER. BREEZY AT
TIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR THE
GULF STREAM WHERE GALE FORCE GUSTS NEAR 35-40 KT ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW- LEVEL
JET BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...BUT BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL LINGER WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT OUTSIDE OF CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE SEA FOG AS A WARM/HUMID AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MOVE IN.
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT WITH
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 NM SO DENSE FOG ADVISORIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WILL
FIGHT TO HOLD ON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT TRICKLES IN
FROM THE WEST/NW LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL DECENT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND ALSO
SOME MIXING OF 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
CONSIDERABLE WE LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AND/OR FOG FROM
OVER LAND AREAS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN A HUGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND THE OVER-RIDING AIR MASS WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM...AWAITING FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THAT LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WE/LL ENJOY CONDITIONS BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961. /BROKEN TODAY/
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942. /BROKEN TODAY/
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 232124
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
424 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTH AND APPEARS CLOSE TO I-16
IN GEORGIA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA WHERE SOME MINOR INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AS INDICATED BY
1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AS PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME DAMAGING WIND REPORTS UPSTREAM
SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS BUT DIURNAL COOLING ALONG WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTHWARD MORE THAN EASTWARD SUGGEST THE LINE WILL BE ON A
WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST GA/SC. SPC IS WATCHING
SOUTHEAST GA ESPECIALLY FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH SO WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR SURE.

OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT NOT TO ZERO
AS THERE IS STILL SOME LIFT/MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT. OF MORE
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DUE TO THE ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...LIKELY MORE A RESULT OF STRATUS BUILDING
DOWN TO THE GROUND AND/OR SEA FOG ADVECTING ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A HUMONGOUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD
MEXICO...WITH A STEADY BUT PROGRESSIVE MIGRATION EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DEEP AND VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INITIALLY THAT HEADS QUICKLY
NE INTO CANADA THEREAFTER. TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE IS A SOMEWHAT
DETACHED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BECOME BOGGED DOWN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING...HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER NIGHTFALL.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED IN RELATION TO THE LOCAL
ZONES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NEAR IF NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
AND SE GA. AND PWATS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NVA ALOFT AND WE/RE NOT
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS WE ARE
HESITANT TO SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS. THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING THOUGH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS CONSIDERING ITS LATE
NOVEMBER AND DECENT SHEAR...SO THERE MIGHT BE A VERY LOW END RISK OF
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER WE LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION TO FADE QUICKLY. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WE
STILL NEED TO SHOW SMALL POPS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS FAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF MORE
INSOLATION DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING TEMPS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 80 AWAY FROM THE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEACHES. AT PRESENT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE JUST SHY OF ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW MORE SPECIFIC RECORDS/. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES THAN THEY/LL BE TONIGHT AS SOME COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOG...SATURATED GROUNDS AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEA FOG IS THROWN INTO THE
MIX. ANY ANY SEA FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW REGION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL DIG THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HEADING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
OLD COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SE COAST...PROBABLY
OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. A POWERFUL UPPER JET ON
THE ORDER OF 150-175 KT OR GREATER WILL DRIVE THE SHORT WAVE...AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOME
FLUCTUATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST WILL
GENERATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND DRIER AIR
PENETRATES IN BY LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. A CONTINUE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGHER
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KCHS...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS
EVENING WE EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR WITH VSBYS ALSO
DROPPING THROUGH LATE NIGHT AS STRATUS BUILDS DOWN BENEATH THE
INVERSION. IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSAV...IFR CEILING/VSBY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR
BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN. A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINAL LATE THIS EVENING THOUGH THE CHANCES OF A
CONTIGUOUS BAND MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS KSAV ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE 18Z TAFS. LATER TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
BENEATH A LOWERING INVERSION...IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO MID MONDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO
MVFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD ANY ISOLATED TO CONVECTION IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...A MUCH GREATER CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT OFF
THE SE COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER. BREEZY AT
TIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR THE
GULF STREAM WHERE GALE FORCE GUSTS NEAR 35-40 KT ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW- LEVEL
JET BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...BUT BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL LINGER WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT OUTSIDE OF CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE SEA FOG AS A WARM/HUMID AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MOVE IN.
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT WITH
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 NM SO DENSE FOG ADVISORIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WILL
FIGHT TO HOLD ON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT TRICKLES IN
FROM THE WEST/NW LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL DECENT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND ALSO
SOME MIXING OF 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
CONSIDERABLE WE LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AND/OR FOG FROM
OVER LAND AREAS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN A HUGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND THE OVER-RIDING AIR MASS WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM...AWAITING FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THAT LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WE/LL ENJOY CONDITIONS BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961. /BROKEN TODAY/
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942. /BROKEN TODAY/
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 232124
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
424 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTH AND APPEARS CLOSE TO I-16
IN GEORGIA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA WHERE SOME MINOR INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AS INDICATED BY
1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AS PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME DAMAGING WIND REPORTS UPSTREAM
SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS BUT DIURNAL COOLING ALONG WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTHWARD MORE THAN EASTWARD SUGGEST THE LINE WILL BE ON A
WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST GA/SC. SPC IS WATCHING
SOUTHEAST GA ESPECIALLY FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH SO WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR SURE.

OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT NOT TO ZERO
AS THERE IS STILL SOME LIFT/MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT. OF MORE
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DUE TO THE ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...LIKELY MORE A RESULT OF STRATUS BUILDING
DOWN TO THE GROUND AND/OR SEA FOG ADVECTING ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A HUMONGOUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD
MEXICO...WITH A STEADY BUT PROGRESSIVE MIGRATION EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DEEP AND VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INITIALLY THAT HEADS QUICKLY
NE INTO CANADA THEREAFTER. TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE IS A SOMEWHAT
DETACHED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BECOME BOGGED DOWN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING...HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER NIGHTFALL.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED IN RELATION TO THE LOCAL
ZONES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NEAR IF NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
AND SE GA. AND PWATS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NVA ALOFT AND WE/RE NOT
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS WE ARE
HESITANT TO SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS. THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING THOUGH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS CONSIDERING ITS LATE
NOVEMBER AND DECENT SHEAR...SO THERE MIGHT BE A VERY LOW END RISK OF
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER WE LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION TO FADE QUICKLY. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WE
STILL NEED TO SHOW SMALL POPS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS FAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF MORE
INSOLATION DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING TEMPS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 80 AWAY FROM THE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEACHES. AT PRESENT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE JUST SHY OF ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW MORE SPECIFIC RECORDS/. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES THAN THEY/LL BE TONIGHT AS SOME COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOG...SATURATED GROUNDS AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEA FOG IS THROWN INTO THE
MIX. ANY ANY SEA FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW REGION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL DIG THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HEADING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
OLD COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SE COAST...PROBABLY
OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. A POWERFUL UPPER JET ON
THE ORDER OF 150-175 KT OR GREATER WILL DRIVE THE SHORT WAVE...AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOME
FLUCTUATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST WILL
GENERATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND DRIER AIR
PENETRATES IN BY LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. A CONTINUE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGHER
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KCHS...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS
EVENING WE EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR WITH VSBYS ALSO
DROPPING THROUGH LATE NIGHT AS STRATUS BUILDS DOWN BENEATH THE
INVERSION. IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSAV...IFR CEILING/VSBY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR
BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN. A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINAL LATE THIS EVENING THOUGH THE CHANCES OF A
CONTIGUOUS BAND MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS KSAV ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE 18Z TAFS. LATER TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
BENEATH A LOWERING INVERSION...IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO MID MONDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO
MVFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD ANY ISOLATED TO CONVECTION IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...A MUCH GREATER CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT OFF
THE SE COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER. BREEZY AT
TIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR THE
GULF STREAM WHERE GALE FORCE GUSTS NEAR 35-40 KT ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW- LEVEL
JET BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...BUT BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL LINGER WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT OUTSIDE OF CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE SEA FOG AS A WARM/HUMID AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MOVE IN.
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT WITH
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 NM SO DENSE FOG ADVISORIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WILL
FIGHT TO HOLD ON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT TRICKLES IN
FROM THE WEST/NW LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL DECENT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND ALSO
SOME MIXING OF 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
CONSIDERABLE WE LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AND/OR FOG FROM
OVER LAND AREAS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN A HUGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND THE OVER-RIDING AIR MASS WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM...AWAITING FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THAT LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WE/LL ENJOY CONDITIONS BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961. /BROKEN TODAY/
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942. /BROKEN TODAY/
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KFFC 231937
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
237 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW EAST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA INDICATING
THE WEDGE IS STILL IN PLACE. DESPITE THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH THE WEDGE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STILL BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT
INTO NORTH GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS ARE SEEING A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL GA...ANOTHER ROUND IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP. THIS
NEXT ROUND WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN POPS DECREASING OVERNIGHT. HI-RES MODELS ARE
SIMILAR IN THAT THEY DO NOT CLEAR OUT ALL THE POPS OVERNIGHT AND
THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.

BETTER INSTABILITY IS BEGINNING TO CREEP ITS WAY NORTHWARD WITH 500
J/KG JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS. IN
ADDITION....THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LL WIND SHEAR WITH 40KTS
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA /CSG TO MCN TO LGR AREA/. WITH ENOUGH
CAPE COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES...THE SE PART OF THE CWA
IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES
REMAINS AND A TORNADO WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.
STILL THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND
EAST OF THE WATCH...WATCH AREA IS JUST MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE TONIGHT...WILL SEE WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT OF THE
WARMER TEMPS AS THEY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR TUESDAY
MORNING...AFTER THE SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. WILL START
THE DAY TOMORROW WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. THIS WILL SLOW THE WARMING TREND MONDAY
MORNING...BUT WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING AND THE CWA REMAINING IN SW
FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S.
FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA...THIS IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

11


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE CWA WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO REMAIN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH GA...ALTHOUGH AT THOSE PEAKS ABOVE
3500 COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING A FINGER OF MOISTURE SKIRTING THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE THE GFS IS KEEPING THE CWA DRY. AT
THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT ANY PRECIP FOR EXTREME NORTH GA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND AS
THE H5 FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A ZONAL FLOW.

17


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE ALREADY SEEN UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HAVE NOT HAD ANY FLOODING ISSUES SO FAR. WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCH EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...COULD SEE LOCALIZED
FLOODING AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. THERES A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP AT MCN AND CSG BUT SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL RA
LATER. COULD SEE A SHORT BREAK AT NORTHERN TAF SITES TOO LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA COVERAGE IS LIMITED BUT WITH CONVECTION
MAKING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...HAVE CONTINUED TEMPO IN
THE ATL SITES. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT
HAVENT GONE QUITE AS LOW AS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AT ATL. WIND
SHIFT AT ATL IN THE 00-04Z TIMEFRAME.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND DUE TO WIND SHIFT TIMING. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON CIGS AND VSBYS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  70  41  57 /  90  20  10  10
ATLANTA         55  69  41  55 /  90  10  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     50  64  36  52 /  90  30  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  67  37  54 /  70  10  10   5
COLUMBUS        60  74  44  57 /  90  20  10  10
GAINESVILLE     52  67  41  54 /  90  20  10   5
MACON           60  76  44  58 /  80  30  10  20
ROME            52  66  35  55 /  60  10  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  69  38  56 /  90  10  10  10
VIDALIA         66  77  52  60 /  80  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRISP...DOOLY...MACON...MARION...
MUSCOGEE...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...WEBSTER...
WILCOX.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11




000
FXUS62 KCAE 231913
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
213 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL
SUPPORT LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM LI PATTERN SUPPORTS THE WARM FRONT
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDINESS AND RAIN SHOULD HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES. SHEAR WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE BUT WITH A LACK OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
THE SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN LOW.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL AND SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SE AND S AS A STRONG 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES.
CAPE/INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW...BUT THE STRONG SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WINDS WOULD APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND TOWARDS THE COAST...WITH THE NAM INDICATING WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE BASED LI/S -1 TO -2 FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE BEST TIME
FRAME FOR POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME
APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM. SPCWRF/HRRR/NSSL WRF ALL
INDICATE A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD
LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.  AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE
WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP
NICELY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO BE CLOSE TO
THE COAST...AND HAVE DRIED FORECAST OUT FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES EAST OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S.

FOR TUESDAY THE LATEST MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION
POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH THE RAINFALL AND
CLOUDS INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

BY TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.
CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS
AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND
THE SYSTEM AND COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONCE WE GET INTO THANKSGIVING AND THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET
DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS.
THE FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO
DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SQUALL LINE COULD CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE A LINE OF WEAKENING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VERY STRONG AND SOME OF THIS WIND MAY
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE OR WITH ANY
OTHER STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BASED ON THE NAM AND 88D VAD WIND
PROFILES WE HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
MAY OCCUR IN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS MAY ALSO OCCUR MONDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHWARD NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 231913
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
213 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL
SUPPORT LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM LI PATTERN SUPPORTS THE WARM FRONT
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDINESS AND RAIN SHOULD HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES. SHEAR WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE BUT WITH A LACK OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
THE SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN LOW.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL AND SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SE AND S AS A STRONG 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES.
CAPE/INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW...BUT THE STRONG SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WINDS WOULD APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND TOWARDS THE COAST...WITH THE NAM INDICATING WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE BASED LI/S -1 TO -2 FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE BEST TIME
FRAME FOR POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME
APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM. SPCWRF/HRRR/NSSL WRF ALL
INDICATE A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD
LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.  AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE
WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP
NICELY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO BE CLOSE TO
THE COAST...AND HAVE DRIED FORECAST OUT FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES EAST OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S.

FOR TUESDAY THE LATEST MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION
POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH THE RAINFALL AND
CLOUDS INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

BY TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.
CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS
AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND
THE SYSTEM AND COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONCE WE GET INTO THANKSGIVING AND THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET
DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS.
THE FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO
DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SQUALL LINE COULD CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE A LINE OF WEAKENING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VERY STRONG AND SOME OF THIS WIND MAY
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE OR WITH ANY
OTHER STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BASED ON THE NAM AND 88D VAD WIND
PROFILES WE HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
MAY OCCUR IN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS MAY ALSO OCCUR MONDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHWARD NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 231838
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
138 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PULLS THE FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE MADE SOME PROGRESS NORTHWARD JUST NORTH
OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THE BOUNDARY THEN SNAKES UP ALONG THE SC
COAST. RADAR INDICATES SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN SHIELD NORTH OF
THERE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN OFFSHORE. STILL COULD BE SOME POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAIN INLAND BUT FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING NEAR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AS THIS COULD BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO AT LEAST
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SG/GA THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB AS THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE
AREA...LIKELY INTO THE UPPER 60S NORTH AND WEST AND INTO THE MID 70S
GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF SAVANNAH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT DISPLACED JUST TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE AS A POWERFUL...
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PIVOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
ALTHOUGH ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
PROGRESS AT SUNSET...MESOSCALE MODELS HINT THAT AT A SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF
A QLCS/SQUALL LINE...COULD BE APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
CORRIDOR OF INTENSE UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ITSELF AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONT. NAM12 INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES REACHING AS HIGH
AS 800-1200 J/KG WITHIN THE CORE OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH
IMPRESSIVE KINEMATIC PROFILES FEATURING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF 50-55 KT ALIGNED WITH A CORRIDOR OF SHERBS3 VALUES OF 1-1.25
UNITS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY WEAK TO MODEST AT
BEST...IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO COVER COME
THIS TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OR EVEN A STRENGTHENING OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS LINE LOOKS TO
BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TIER CLOSER TO THE WARM
FRONT. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY MODERATE AT BEST AT
THIS POINT IN TIME AND FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL BE NEED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

POPS OF OF 30-50 PERCENT WILL BE DEPICTED TONIGHT WITH GRIDDED
POPS REACHING AS HIGH AS 60-70 PERCENT ALIGNED WITH THE EXPECTED
PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. IT WILL BE BE A WARM/HUMID NIGHT
WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
DESPITE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE.
IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL
UNFOLD GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT ITS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WILL SHOW
AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...ROUGHLY TIMED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SQUALL LINE.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGING
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND
STEADY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS NEARLY PARALLEL
ORIENTATION TO THE UPPER FLOW. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE
DYNAMICS AND FORCING WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...CONVECTION
APPEARS LIMITED TO A NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG
THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WILL THUS KEEP RAIN CHANCES CAPPED IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CLOSER TO
THE COAST...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON CONSIDERING A
WARMER START TO THE DAY AND PERSISTENT SOLID SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND GIVEN THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DRIER
AIR APPROACHES IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...FALLING INTO UPPER 40S FAR
INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO PUSH EASTWARD. STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE DUE TO THE LACK OF A CLEAN FRONTAL PROGRESSION...AND
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
MEANDERING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE ZONE. BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SUGGEST THAT RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS TOWARD THE
AREA AND THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE INDICATED POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE ALL AREAS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...INCREASING TO LIKELY RAIN FOR THE
COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S AND NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS IN THE LOW 40S.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE WILL STEADILY LIFT NORTH
UP THE COAST...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. THE DAY WILL
BEGIN WITH A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN RAIN COVERAGE...WITH THE
CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA SEEING NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND THE
GEORGIA ZONES FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER SEEING
SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...AND EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE EVENING HOURS. THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...AND COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY...
DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KCHS...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS
EVENING WE EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR WITH VSBYS ALSO
DROPPING THROUGH LATE NIGHT AS STRATUS BUILDS DOWN BENEATH THE
INVERSION. IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSAV...IFR CEILING/VSBY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR
BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN. A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINAL LATE THIS EVENING THOUGH THE CHANCES OF A
CONTIGUOUS BAND MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS KSAV ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE 18Z TAFS. LATER TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
BENEATH A LOWERING INVERSION...IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO MID MONDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO
MVFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS...AND GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A COLD FRONT PULLS FARTHER
OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS
TODAY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND A COASTAL FRONT
SHIFTS INLAND. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME GIVEN THE COLD SHELF WATERS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS
WERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S PER LATEST MODIS
SST IMAGERY. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH DEEPER MIXING PROFILES WHICH A
RISK FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES. PER COLLABORATION WITH
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WARNING WILL BE POSTED FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL BE
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-8
FT NEARSHORE WATERS...EXCEPT 6-10 FT CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
7-12 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST AS WELL AS THE WARM/HUMID AIR MOVES IN OVER THE
COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SC/NORTHERN GA COAST.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT WITH THE AREA FIRMLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...BUT BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LINGER WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 4-8 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...HIGHEST
OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...WITH 7-9 FT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEG.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED TO END MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK AND MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT A LATER
TIME.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO NEAR 12 FT AT BUOY 41004 WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS NEAR THE COAST OCCURRING OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COAST. THIS COULD PRODUCE BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 5
FT...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES OF
CHARLESTON COUNTY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST AREAS HAVE PICKED UP ABOUT 0.5-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES SO FAR. AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR SO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE URBAN COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE
ADDED INFLUENCE FROM THE TIDES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961.
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942.
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 231838
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
138 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PULLS THE FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE MADE SOME PROGRESS NORTHWARD JUST NORTH
OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THE BOUNDARY THEN SNAKES UP ALONG THE SC
COAST. RADAR INDICATES SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN SHIELD NORTH OF
THERE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN OFFSHORE. STILL COULD BE SOME POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAIN INLAND BUT FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING NEAR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AS THIS COULD BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO AT LEAST
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SG/GA THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB AS THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE
AREA...LIKELY INTO THE UPPER 60S NORTH AND WEST AND INTO THE MID 70S
GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF SAVANNAH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT DISPLACED JUST TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE AS A POWERFUL...
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PIVOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
ALTHOUGH ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
PROGRESS AT SUNSET...MESOSCALE MODELS HINT THAT AT A SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF
A QLCS/SQUALL LINE...COULD BE APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
CORRIDOR OF INTENSE UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ITSELF AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONT. NAM12 INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES REACHING AS HIGH
AS 800-1200 J/KG WITHIN THE CORE OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH
IMPRESSIVE KINEMATIC PROFILES FEATURING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF 50-55 KT ALIGNED WITH A CORRIDOR OF SHERBS3 VALUES OF 1-1.25
UNITS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY WEAK TO MODEST AT
BEST...IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO COVER COME
THIS TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OR EVEN A STRENGTHENING OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS LINE LOOKS TO
BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TIER CLOSER TO THE WARM
FRONT. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY MODERATE AT BEST AT
THIS POINT IN TIME AND FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL BE NEED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

POPS OF OF 30-50 PERCENT WILL BE DEPICTED TONIGHT WITH GRIDDED
POPS REACHING AS HIGH AS 60-70 PERCENT ALIGNED WITH THE EXPECTED
PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. IT WILL BE BE A WARM/HUMID NIGHT
WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
DESPITE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE.
IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL
UNFOLD GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT ITS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WILL SHOW
AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...ROUGHLY TIMED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SQUALL LINE.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGING
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND
STEADY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS NEARLY PARALLEL
ORIENTATION TO THE UPPER FLOW. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE
DYNAMICS AND FORCING WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...CONVECTION
APPEARS LIMITED TO A NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG
THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WILL THUS KEEP RAIN CHANCES CAPPED IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CLOSER TO
THE COAST...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON CONSIDERING A
WARMER START TO THE DAY AND PERSISTENT SOLID SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND GIVEN THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DRIER
AIR APPROACHES IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...FALLING INTO UPPER 40S FAR
INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO PUSH EASTWARD. STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE DUE TO THE LACK OF A CLEAN FRONTAL PROGRESSION...AND
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
MEANDERING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE ZONE. BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SUGGEST THAT RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS TOWARD THE
AREA AND THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE INDICATED POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE ALL AREAS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...INCREASING TO LIKELY RAIN FOR THE
COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S AND NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS IN THE LOW 40S.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE WILL STEADILY LIFT NORTH
UP THE COAST...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. THE DAY WILL
BEGIN WITH A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN RAIN COVERAGE...WITH THE
CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA SEEING NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND THE
GEORGIA ZONES FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER SEEING
SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...AND EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE EVENING HOURS. THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...AND COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY...
DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KCHS...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS
EVENING WE EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR WITH VSBYS ALSO
DROPPING THROUGH LATE NIGHT AS STRATUS BUILDS DOWN BENEATH THE
INVERSION. IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSAV...IFR CEILING/VSBY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR
BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN. A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINAL LATE THIS EVENING THOUGH THE CHANCES OF A
CONTIGUOUS BAND MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS KSAV ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE 18Z TAFS. LATER TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
BENEATH A LOWERING INVERSION...IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO MID MONDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO
MVFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS...AND GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A COLD FRONT PULLS FARTHER
OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS
TODAY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND A COASTAL FRONT
SHIFTS INLAND. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME GIVEN THE COLD SHELF WATERS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS
WERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S PER LATEST MODIS
SST IMAGERY. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH DEEPER MIXING PROFILES WHICH A
RISK FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES. PER COLLABORATION WITH
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WARNING WILL BE POSTED FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL BE
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-8
FT NEARSHORE WATERS...EXCEPT 6-10 FT CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
7-12 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST AS WELL AS THE WARM/HUMID AIR MOVES IN OVER THE
COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SC/NORTHERN GA COAST.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT WITH THE AREA FIRMLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...BUT BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LINGER WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 4-8 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...HIGHEST
OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...WITH 7-9 FT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEG.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED TO END MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK AND MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT A LATER
TIME.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO NEAR 12 FT AT BUOY 41004 WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS NEAR THE COAST OCCURRING OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COAST. THIS COULD PRODUCE BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 5
FT...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES OF
CHARLESTON COUNTY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST AREAS HAVE PICKED UP ABOUT 0.5-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES SO FAR. AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR SO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE URBAN COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE
ADDED INFLUENCE FROM THE TIDES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961.
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942.
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KFFC 231759 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1259 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...
AREA OF BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND THUS MAINLY JUST SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HAVE ONLY SEEN A HANDFUL OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITHIN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF AND ARE ALREADY SEEING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMING SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAGRANGE TO FORSYTH TO
WARRENTON. HAVE CUT BACK THE MENTION ON SEVERE IN THE GRIDS NORTH
OF THIS LINE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
MAKING IT NORTH OF THAT LINE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES ARE TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...FORECAST IS ON
TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. BESIDES ADJUSTING THE AREA FOR SEVERE
WORDING IN THE GRIDS...HAVE ALSO SLOWED THE WARMING TREND ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CURRENTLY COVERING THE FORECAST
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN GULF AND BROAD DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE STRONGER
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INSTABILITY IS
LACKING AND FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY CONVECTION
OF EVEN MODERATE DEPTH WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE. VWP DATA FROM
REGIONAL RADARS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS HAVE YET TO LOWER BELOW
ABOUT 10-15KFT AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODERATE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LATER TODAY AS WELL.
BETTER FORCING LATER TODAY AS THE STRONGER WAVE LIFTS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE INSTABILITY IS BEST. NORTHERN RANGE OF
THIS THREAT WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN
LIFT. CURRENT SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS THE EXPECTED EXTENT WELL.
MAY BE A SLIGHT LULL IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD SPREAD IN ONCE AGAIN BY
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
STATE AND END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
MOISTURE STARTS STREAMING BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE DEEPENING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. HIGHEST POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OVER EAST CENTRAL ZONES.
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AND WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOW SHOWERS FOR FAR NORTH GA
BUT THAT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE MOISTURE ACTUALLY GETS. HAVE
LEFT ANY POPS OUT AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.

41

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. THERES A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP AT MCN AND CSG BUT SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL RA
LATER. COULD SEE A SHORT BREAK AT NORTHERN TAF SITES TOO LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA COVERAGE IS LIMITED BUT WITH CONVECTION
MAKING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...HAVE CONTINUED TEMPO IN
THE ATL SITES. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT
HAVENT GONE QUITE AS LOW AS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AT ATL. WIND
SHIFT AT ATL IN THE 00-04Z TIMEFRAME.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND DUE TO WIND SHIFT TIMING. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON CIGS AND VSBYS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  52  68  40 / 100  80  20  10
ATLANTA         60  54  66  41 / 100  60  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  49  61  34 / 100  80  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    60  52  65  36 / 100  50  20  10
COLUMBUS        66  59  72  42 / 100  50  20  10
GAINESVILLE     57  52  64  40 / 100  80  20  10
MACON           66  60  73  43 / 100  70  20  10
ROME            59  52  63  36 / 100  50  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  61  54  67  38 / 100  50  20  10
VIDALIA         71  64  74  49 / 100  80  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11




000
FXUS62 KFFC 231759 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1259 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...
AREA OF BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND THUS MAINLY JUST SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HAVE ONLY SEEN A HANDFUL OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITHIN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF AND ARE ALREADY SEEING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMING SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAGRANGE TO FORSYTH TO
WARRENTON. HAVE CUT BACK THE MENTION ON SEVERE IN THE GRIDS NORTH
OF THIS LINE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
MAKING IT NORTH OF THAT LINE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES ARE TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...FORECAST IS ON
TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. BESIDES ADJUSTING THE AREA FOR SEVERE
WORDING IN THE GRIDS...HAVE ALSO SLOWED THE WARMING TREND ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CURRENTLY COVERING THE FORECAST
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN GULF AND BROAD DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE STRONGER
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INSTABILITY IS
LACKING AND FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY CONVECTION
OF EVEN MODERATE DEPTH WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE. VWP DATA FROM
REGIONAL RADARS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS HAVE YET TO LOWER BELOW
ABOUT 10-15KFT AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODERATE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LATER TODAY AS WELL.
BETTER FORCING LATER TODAY AS THE STRONGER WAVE LIFTS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE INSTABILITY IS BEST. NORTHERN RANGE OF
THIS THREAT WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN
LIFT. CURRENT SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS THE EXPECTED EXTENT WELL.
MAY BE A SLIGHT LULL IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD SPREAD IN ONCE AGAIN BY
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
STATE AND END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
MOISTURE STARTS STREAMING BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE DEEPENING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. HIGHEST POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OVER EAST CENTRAL ZONES.
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AND WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOW SHOWERS FOR FAR NORTH GA
BUT THAT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE MOISTURE ACTUALLY GETS. HAVE
LEFT ANY POPS OUT AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.

41

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. THERES A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP AT MCN AND CSG BUT SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL RA
LATER. COULD SEE A SHORT BREAK AT NORTHERN TAF SITES TOO LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA COVERAGE IS LIMITED BUT WITH CONVECTION
MAKING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...HAVE CONTINUED TEMPO IN
THE ATL SITES. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT
HAVENT GONE QUITE AS LOW AS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AT ATL. WIND
SHIFT AT ATL IN THE 00-04Z TIMEFRAME.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND DUE TO WIND SHIFT TIMING. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON CIGS AND VSBYS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  52  68  40 / 100  80  20  10
ATLANTA         60  54  66  41 / 100  60  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  49  61  34 / 100  80  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    60  52  65  36 / 100  50  20  10
COLUMBUS        66  59  72  42 / 100  50  20  10
GAINESVILLE     57  52  64  40 / 100  80  20  10
MACON           66  60  73  43 / 100  70  20  10
ROME            59  52  63  36 / 100  50  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  61  54  67  38 / 100  50  20  10
VIDALIA         71  64  74  49 / 100  80  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11




000
FXUS62 KFFC 231759 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1259 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...
AREA OF BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND THUS MAINLY JUST SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HAVE ONLY SEEN A HANDFUL OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITHIN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF AND ARE ALREADY SEEING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMING SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAGRANGE TO FORSYTH TO
WARRENTON. HAVE CUT BACK THE MENTION ON SEVERE IN THE GRIDS NORTH
OF THIS LINE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
MAKING IT NORTH OF THAT LINE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES ARE TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...FORECAST IS ON
TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. BESIDES ADJUSTING THE AREA FOR SEVERE
WORDING IN THE GRIDS...HAVE ALSO SLOWED THE WARMING TREND ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CURRENTLY COVERING THE FORECAST
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN GULF AND BROAD DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE STRONGER
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INSTABILITY IS
LACKING AND FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY CONVECTION
OF EVEN MODERATE DEPTH WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE. VWP DATA FROM
REGIONAL RADARS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS HAVE YET TO LOWER BELOW
ABOUT 10-15KFT AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODERATE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LATER TODAY AS WELL.
BETTER FORCING LATER TODAY AS THE STRONGER WAVE LIFTS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE INSTABILITY IS BEST. NORTHERN RANGE OF
THIS THREAT WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN
LIFT. CURRENT SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS THE EXPECTED EXTENT WELL.
MAY BE A SLIGHT LULL IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD SPREAD IN ONCE AGAIN BY
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
STATE AND END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
MOISTURE STARTS STREAMING BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE DEEPENING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. HIGHEST POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OVER EAST CENTRAL ZONES.
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AND WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOW SHOWERS FOR FAR NORTH GA
BUT THAT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE MOISTURE ACTUALLY GETS. HAVE
LEFT ANY POPS OUT AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.

41

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. THERES A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP AT MCN AND CSG BUT SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL RA
LATER. COULD SEE A SHORT BREAK AT NORTHERN TAF SITES TOO LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA COVERAGE IS LIMITED BUT WITH CONVECTION
MAKING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...HAVE CONTINUED TEMPO IN
THE ATL SITES. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT
HAVENT GONE QUITE AS LOW AS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AT ATL. WIND
SHIFT AT ATL IN THE 00-04Z TIMEFRAME.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND DUE TO WIND SHIFT TIMING. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON CIGS AND VSBYS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  52  68  40 / 100  80  20  10
ATLANTA         60  54  66  41 / 100  60  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  49  61  34 / 100  80  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    60  52  65  36 / 100  50  20  10
COLUMBUS        66  59  72  42 / 100  50  20  10
GAINESVILLE     57  52  64  40 / 100  80  20  10
MACON           66  60  73  43 / 100  70  20  10
ROME            59  52  63  36 / 100  50  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  61  54  67  38 / 100  50  20  10
VIDALIA         71  64  74  49 / 100  80  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11




000
FXUS62 KFFC 231759 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1259 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...
AREA OF BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND THUS MAINLY JUST SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HAVE ONLY SEEN A HANDFUL OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITHIN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF AND ARE ALREADY SEEING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMING SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAGRANGE TO FORSYTH TO
WARRENTON. HAVE CUT BACK THE MENTION ON SEVERE IN THE GRIDS NORTH
OF THIS LINE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
MAKING IT NORTH OF THAT LINE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES ARE TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...FORECAST IS ON
TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. BESIDES ADJUSTING THE AREA FOR SEVERE
WORDING IN THE GRIDS...HAVE ALSO SLOWED THE WARMING TREND ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CURRENTLY COVERING THE FORECAST
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN GULF AND BROAD DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE STRONGER
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INSTABILITY IS
LACKING AND FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY CONVECTION
OF EVEN MODERATE DEPTH WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE. VWP DATA FROM
REGIONAL RADARS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS HAVE YET TO LOWER BELOW
ABOUT 10-15KFT AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODERATE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LATER TODAY AS WELL.
BETTER FORCING LATER TODAY AS THE STRONGER WAVE LIFTS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE INSTABILITY IS BEST. NORTHERN RANGE OF
THIS THREAT WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN
LIFT. CURRENT SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS THE EXPECTED EXTENT WELL.
MAY BE A SLIGHT LULL IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD SPREAD IN ONCE AGAIN BY
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
STATE AND END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
MOISTURE STARTS STREAMING BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE DEEPENING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. HIGHEST POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OVER EAST CENTRAL ZONES.
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AND WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOW SHOWERS FOR FAR NORTH GA
BUT THAT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE MOISTURE ACTUALLY GETS. HAVE
LEFT ANY POPS OUT AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.

41

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. THERES A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP AT MCN AND CSG BUT SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL RA
LATER. COULD SEE A SHORT BREAK AT NORTHERN TAF SITES TOO LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA COVERAGE IS LIMITED BUT WITH CONVECTION
MAKING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...HAVE CONTINUED TEMPO IN
THE ATL SITES. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT
HAVENT GONE QUITE AS LOW AS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AT ATL. WIND
SHIFT AT ATL IN THE 00-04Z TIMEFRAME.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND DUE TO WIND SHIFT TIMING. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON CIGS AND VSBYS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  52  68  40 / 100  80  20  10
ATLANTA         60  54  66  41 / 100  60  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  49  61  34 / 100  80  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    60  52  65  36 / 100  50  20  10
COLUMBUS        66  59  72  42 / 100  50  20  10
GAINESVILLE     57  52  64  40 / 100  80  20  10
MACON           66  60  73  43 / 100  70  20  10
ROME            59  52  63  36 / 100  50  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  61  54  67  38 / 100  50  20  10
VIDALIA         71  64  74  49 / 100  80  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11




000
FXUS62 KCAE 231738
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1238 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT LOW
CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NAM LI PATTERN SUPPORTS THE WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY. THE CLOUDINESS AND RAIN SHOULD HELP
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES. SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT WITH A
LACK OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY SHOULD
REMAIN LOW.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL AND SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SE AND S AS A STRONG 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES.
CAPE/INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW...BUT THE STRONG SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WINDS WOULD APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND TOWARDS THE COAST...WITH THE NAM INDICATING WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE BASED LI/S -1 TO -2 FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE BEST TIME
FRAME FOR POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME
APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM. SPCWRF/HRRR/NSSL WRF ALL
INDICATE A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD
LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.  AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE
WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP
NICELY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO BE CLOSE TO
THE COAST...AND HAVE DRIED FORECAST OUT FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES EAST OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S.

FOR TUESDAY THE LATEST MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION
POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH THE RAINFALL AND
CLOUDS INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

BY TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.
CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS
AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND
THE SYSTEM AND COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONCE WE GET INTO THANKSGIVING AND THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET
DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE FRONT MAY LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG AND SOME OF THIS WIND MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN
THE POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE OR WITH ANY OTHER STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
BASED ON THE NAM AND 88D VAD WIND PROFILES WE HAVE INCLUDED LLWS
IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
MAY OCCUR IN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS MAY ALSO OCCUR MONDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHWARD NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 231738
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1238 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT LOW
CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NAM LI PATTERN SUPPORTS THE WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY. THE CLOUDINESS AND RAIN SHOULD HELP
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES. SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT WITH A
LACK OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY SHOULD
REMAIN LOW.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL AND SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SE AND S AS A STRONG 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES.
CAPE/INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW...BUT THE STRONG SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WINDS WOULD APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND TOWARDS THE COAST...WITH THE NAM INDICATING WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE BASED LI/S -1 TO -2 FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE BEST TIME
FRAME FOR POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME
APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM. SPCWRF/HRRR/NSSL WRF ALL
INDICATE A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD
LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.  AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE
WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP
NICELY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE CWA...BUT
LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO BE CLOSE TO
THE COAST...AND HAVE DRIED FORECAST OUT FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES EAST OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S.

FOR TUESDAY THE LATEST MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION
POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH THE RAINFALL AND
CLOUDS INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

BY TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.
CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS
AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND
THE SYSTEM AND COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONCE WE GET INTO THANKSGIVING AND THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET
DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE FRONT MAY LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG AND SOME OF THIS WIND MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN
THE POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE OR WITH ANY OTHER STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
BASED ON THE NAM AND 88D VAD WIND PROFILES WE HAVE INCLUDED LLWS
IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
MAY OCCUR IN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS MAY ALSO OCCUR MONDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHWARD NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCHS 231641
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1141 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PULLS THE FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST WAS PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
DID TREND RAIN CHANCES DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS IT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE A DECENT LULL IN THE RAIN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THAT AREA. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG NEAR THE SOUTHERN SC/NORTHERN GA COASTAL AREAS AS THE
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS SHIFTS OVER THE COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WE DO EXPECT SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH BUT SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS LOOK VERY LOW
OVER LAND GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...MAINLY CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN HAZARD BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS SHEAR IS ENHANCED ALONG
THE FRONT.

HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S SOUTH AND EAST BUT REMAIN CLOSER TO
70 NORTH AND WEST AS THOSE AREAS WILL BE IN THE LINGERING WEDGE
THE LONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT DISPLACED JUST TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE AS A POWERFUL...
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PIVOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
ALTHOUGH ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
PROGRESS AT SUNSET...MESOSCALE MODELS HINT THAT AT A SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF
A QLCS/SQUALL LINE...COULD BE APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
CORRIDOR OF INTENSE UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ITSELF AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONT. NAM12 INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES REACHING AS HIGH
AS 800-1200 J/KG WITHIN THE CORE OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH
IMPRESSIVE KINEMATIC PROFILES FEATURING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF 50-55 KT ALIGNED WITH A CORRIDOR OF SHERBS3 VALUES OF 1-1.25
UNITS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY WEAK TO MODEST AT
BEST...IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO COVER COME
THIS TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OR EVEN A STRENGTHENING OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS LINE LOOKS TO
BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TIER CLOSER TO THE WARM
FRONT. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY MODERATE AT BEST AT
THIS POINT IN TIME AND FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL BE NEED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

POPS OF OF 30-50 PERCENT WILL BE DEPICTED TONIGHT WITH GRIDDED
POPS REACHING AS HIGH AS 60-70 PERCENT ALIGNED WITH THE EXPECTED
PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. IT WILL BE BE A WARM/HUMID NIGHT
WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
DESPITE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE.
IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL
UNFOLD GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT ITS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WILL SHOW
AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...ROUGHLY TIMED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SQUALL LINE.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGING
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND
STEADY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS NEARLY PARALLEL
ORIENTATION TO THE UPPER FLOW. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE
DYNAMICS AND FORCING WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...CONVECTION
APPEARS LIMITED TO A NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG
THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WILL THUS KEEP RAIN CHANCES CAPPED IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CLOSER TO
THE COAST...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON CONSIDERING A
WARMER START TO THE DAY AND PERSISTENT SOLID SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND GIVEN THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DRIER
AIR APPROACHES IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...FALLING INTO UPPER 40S FAR
INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO PUSH EASTWARD. STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE DUE TO THE LACK OF A CLEAN FRONTAL PROGRESSION...AND
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
MEANDERING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE ZONE. BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SUGGEST THAT RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS TOWARD THE
AREA AND THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE INDICATED POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE ALL AREAS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...INCREASING TO LIKELY RAIN FOR THE
COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S AND NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS IN THE LOW 40S.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE WILL STEADILY LIFT NORTH
UP THE COAST...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. THE DAY WILL
BEGIN WITH A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN RAIN COVERAGE...WITH THE
CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA SEEING NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND THE
GEORGIA ZONES FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER SEEING
SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...AND EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE EVENING HOURS. THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...AND COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY...
DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREVAILING IFR LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE STEADIEST RAIN AND GENERALLY WORSE
CONDS WILL BE AT KCHS WHICH WILL BE IN THE COOL SECTOR LONGEST. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AT BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
LIKELY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN A CONCERN UNTIL THE FRONT
PASSES AND SURFACE WINDS PICK UP. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWER/TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A
SQUALL LINE. FOR NOW LIMITED CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH A MENTION FOR
TSRA. LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ONCE THE SQUALL
LINE MOVES THROUGH. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS ON EXACTLY HOW
WIDESPREAD/DENSE THE STRATUS/FOG WILL BECOME...SO LIMITED
CONDITIONS TO JUST ABOVE AIRFIELD ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AT BOTH
TERMINALS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS...AND GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A COLD FRONT PULLS FARTHER
OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS
TODAY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND A COASTAL FRONT
SHIFTS INLAND. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME GIVEN THE COLD SHELF WATERS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS
WERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S PER LATEST MODIS
SST IMAGERY. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH DEEPER MIXING PROFILES WHICH A
RISK FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES. PER COLLABORATION WITH
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WARNING WILL BE POSTED FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL BE
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-8
FT NEARSHORE WATERS...EXCEPT 6-10 FT CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
7-12 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST AS WELL AS THE WARM/HUMID AIR MOVES IN OVER THE
COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SC/NORTHERN GA COAST.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT WITH THE AREA FIRMLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...BUT BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LINGER WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 4-8 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...HIGHEST
OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...WITH 7-9 FT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEG.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED TO END MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK AND MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT A LATER
TIME.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO NEAR 12 FT AT BUOY 41004 WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS NEAR THE COAST OCCURRING OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COAST. THIS COULD PRODUCE BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 5
FT...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES OF
CHARLESTON COUNTY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST AREAS HAVE PICKED UP ABOUT 0.5-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SO FAR. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE URBAN COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE ADDED
INFLUENCE FROM THE TIDES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961.
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942.
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 231641
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1141 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PULLS THE FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST WAS PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
DID TREND RAIN CHANCES DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS IT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE A DECENT LULL IN THE RAIN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THAT AREA. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG NEAR THE SOUTHERN SC/NORTHERN GA COASTAL AREAS AS THE
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS SHIFTS OVER THE COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WE DO EXPECT SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH BUT SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS LOOK VERY LOW
OVER LAND GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...MAINLY CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN HAZARD BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS SHEAR IS ENHANCED ALONG
THE FRONT.

HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S SOUTH AND EAST BUT REMAIN CLOSER TO
70 NORTH AND WEST AS THOSE AREAS WILL BE IN THE LINGERING WEDGE
THE LONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT DISPLACED JUST TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE AS A POWERFUL...
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PIVOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
ALTHOUGH ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
PROGRESS AT SUNSET...MESOSCALE MODELS HINT THAT AT A SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF
A QLCS/SQUALL LINE...COULD BE APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
CORRIDOR OF INTENSE UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ITSELF AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONT. NAM12 INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES REACHING AS HIGH
AS 800-1200 J/KG WITHIN THE CORE OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH
IMPRESSIVE KINEMATIC PROFILES FEATURING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF 50-55 KT ALIGNED WITH A CORRIDOR OF SHERBS3 VALUES OF 1-1.25
UNITS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY WEAK TO MODEST AT
BEST...IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO COVER COME
THIS TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OR EVEN A STRENGTHENING OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS LINE LOOKS TO
BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TIER CLOSER TO THE WARM
FRONT. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY MODERATE AT BEST AT
THIS POINT IN TIME AND FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL BE NEED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

POPS OF OF 30-50 PERCENT WILL BE DEPICTED TONIGHT WITH GRIDDED
POPS REACHING AS HIGH AS 60-70 PERCENT ALIGNED WITH THE EXPECTED
PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. IT WILL BE BE A WARM/HUMID NIGHT
WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
DESPITE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE.
IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL
UNFOLD GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT ITS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WILL SHOW
AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...ROUGHLY TIMED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SQUALL LINE.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGING
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND
STEADY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS NEARLY PARALLEL
ORIENTATION TO THE UPPER FLOW. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE
DYNAMICS AND FORCING WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...CONVECTION
APPEARS LIMITED TO A NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG
THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WILL THUS KEEP RAIN CHANCES CAPPED IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CLOSER TO
THE COAST...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON CONSIDERING A
WARMER START TO THE DAY AND PERSISTENT SOLID SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND GIVEN THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DRIER
AIR APPROACHES IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...FALLING INTO UPPER 40S FAR
INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO PUSH EASTWARD. STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE DUE TO THE LACK OF A CLEAN FRONTAL PROGRESSION...AND
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
MEANDERING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE ZONE. BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SUGGEST THAT RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS TOWARD THE
AREA AND THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE INDICATED POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE ALL AREAS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...INCREASING TO LIKELY RAIN FOR THE
COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S AND NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS IN THE LOW 40S.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE WILL STEADILY LIFT NORTH
UP THE COAST...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. THE DAY WILL
BEGIN WITH A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN RAIN COVERAGE...WITH THE
CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA SEEING NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND THE
GEORGIA ZONES FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER SEEING
SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...AND EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE EVENING HOURS. THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...AND COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY...
DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREVAILING IFR LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE STEADIEST RAIN AND GENERALLY WORSE
CONDS WILL BE AT KCHS WHICH WILL BE IN THE COOL SECTOR LONGEST. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AT BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
LIKELY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN A CONCERN UNTIL THE FRONT
PASSES AND SURFACE WINDS PICK UP. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWER/TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A
SQUALL LINE. FOR NOW LIMITED CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH A MENTION FOR
TSRA. LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ONCE THE SQUALL
LINE MOVES THROUGH. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS ON EXACTLY HOW
WIDESPREAD/DENSE THE STRATUS/FOG WILL BECOME...SO LIMITED
CONDITIONS TO JUST ABOVE AIRFIELD ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AT BOTH
TERMINALS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS...AND GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A COLD FRONT PULLS FARTHER
OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS
TODAY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND A COASTAL FRONT
SHIFTS INLAND. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME GIVEN THE COLD SHELF WATERS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS
WERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S PER LATEST MODIS
SST IMAGERY. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH DEEPER MIXING PROFILES WHICH A
RISK FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES. PER COLLABORATION WITH
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WARNING WILL BE POSTED FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL BE
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-8
FT NEARSHORE WATERS...EXCEPT 6-10 FT CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
7-12 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST AS WELL AS THE WARM/HUMID AIR MOVES IN OVER THE
COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SC/NORTHERN GA COAST.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT WITH THE AREA FIRMLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...BUT BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LINGER WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 4-8 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...HIGHEST
OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...WITH 7-9 FT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEG.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED TO END MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK AND MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT A LATER
TIME.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO NEAR 12 FT AT BUOY 41004 WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS NEAR THE COAST OCCURRING OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COAST. THIS COULD PRODUCE BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 5
FT...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES OF
CHARLESTON COUNTY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST AREAS HAVE PICKED UP ABOUT 0.5-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SO FAR. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE URBAN COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE ADDED
INFLUENCE FROM THE TIDES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961.
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942.
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 231641
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1141 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PULLS THE FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST WAS PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
DID TREND RAIN CHANCES DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS IT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE A DECENT LULL IN THE RAIN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THAT AREA. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG NEAR THE SOUTHERN SC/NORTHERN GA COASTAL AREAS AS THE
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS SHIFTS OVER THE COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WE DO EXPECT SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH BUT SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS LOOK VERY LOW
OVER LAND GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...MAINLY CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN HAZARD BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS SHEAR IS ENHANCED ALONG
THE FRONT.

HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S SOUTH AND EAST BUT REMAIN CLOSER TO
70 NORTH AND WEST AS THOSE AREAS WILL BE IN THE LINGERING WEDGE
THE LONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT DISPLACED JUST TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE AS A POWERFUL...
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PIVOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
ALTHOUGH ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
PROGRESS AT SUNSET...MESOSCALE MODELS HINT THAT AT A SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF
A QLCS/SQUALL LINE...COULD BE APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
CORRIDOR OF INTENSE UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ITSELF AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONT. NAM12 INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES REACHING AS HIGH
AS 800-1200 J/KG WITHIN THE CORE OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH
IMPRESSIVE KINEMATIC PROFILES FEATURING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF 50-55 KT ALIGNED WITH A CORRIDOR OF SHERBS3 VALUES OF 1-1.25
UNITS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY WEAK TO MODEST AT
BEST...IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO COVER COME
THIS TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OR EVEN A STRENGTHENING OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS LINE LOOKS TO
BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TIER CLOSER TO THE WARM
FRONT. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY MODERATE AT BEST AT
THIS POINT IN TIME AND FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL BE NEED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

POPS OF OF 30-50 PERCENT WILL BE DEPICTED TONIGHT WITH GRIDDED
POPS REACHING AS HIGH AS 60-70 PERCENT ALIGNED WITH THE EXPECTED
PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. IT WILL BE BE A WARM/HUMID NIGHT
WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
DESPITE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE.
IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL
UNFOLD GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT ITS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WILL SHOW
AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...ROUGHLY TIMED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SQUALL LINE.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGING
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND
STEADY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS NEARLY PARALLEL
ORIENTATION TO THE UPPER FLOW. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE
DYNAMICS AND FORCING WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...CONVECTION
APPEARS LIMITED TO A NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG
THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WILL THUS KEEP RAIN CHANCES CAPPED IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CLOSER TO
THE COAST...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON CONSIDERING A
WARMER START TO THE DAY AND PERSISTENT SOLID SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND GIVEN THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DRIER
AIR APPROACHES IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...FALLING INTO UPPER 40S FAR
INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO PUSH EASTWARD. STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE DUE TO THE LACK OF A CLEAN FRONTAL PROGRESSION...AND
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
MEANDERING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE ZONE. BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SUGGEST THAT RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS TOWARD THE
AREA AND THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE INDICATED POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE ALL AREAS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...INCREASING TO LIKELY RAIN FOR THE
COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S AND NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS IN THE LOW 40S.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE WILL STEADILY LIFT NORTH
UP THE COAST...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. THE DAY WILL
BEGIN WITH A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN RAIN COVERAGE...WITH THE
CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA SEEING NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND THE
GEORGIA ZONES FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER SEEING
SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...AND EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE EVENING HOURS. THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...AND COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY...
DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREVAILING IFR LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE STEADIEST RAIN AND GENERALLY WORSE
CONDS WILL BE AT KCHS WHICH WILL BE IN THE COOL SECTOR LONGEST. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AT BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
LIKELY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN A CONCERN UNTIL THE FRONT
PASSES AND SURFACE WINDS PICK UP. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWER/TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A
SQUALL LINE. FOR NOW LIMITED CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH A MENTION FOR
TSRA. LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ONCE THE SQUALL
LINE MOVES THROUGH. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS ON EXACTLY HOW
WIDESPREAD/DENSE THE STRATUS/FOG WILL BECOME...SO LIMITED
CONDITIONS TO JUST ABOVE AIRFIELD ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AT BOTH
TERMINALS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS...AND GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A COLD FRONT PULLS FARTHER
OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS
TODAY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND A COASTAL FRONT
SHIFTS INLAND. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME GIVEN THE COLD SHELF WATERS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS
WERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S PER LATEST MODIS
SST IMAGERY. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH DEEPER MIXING PROFILES WHICH A
RISK FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES. PER COLLABORATION WITH
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WARNING WILL BE POSTED FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL BE
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-8
FT NEARSHORE WATERS...EXCEPT 6-10 FT CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
7-12 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST AS WELL AS THE WARM/HUMID AIR MOVES IN OVER THE
COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SC/NORTHERN GA COAST.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT WITH THE AREA FIRMLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...BUT BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LINGER WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 4-8 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...HIGHEST
OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...WITH 7-9 FT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEG.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED TO END MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK AND MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT A LATER
TIME.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO NEAR 12 FT AT BUOY 41004 WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS NEAR THE COAST OCCURRING OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COAST. THIS COULD PRODUCE BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 5
FT...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES OF
CHARLESTON COUNTY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST AREAS HAVE PICKED UP ABOUT 0.5-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SO FAR. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE URBAN COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE ADDED
INFLUENCE FROM THE TIDES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961.
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942.
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 231641
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1141 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PULLS THE FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST WAS PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
DID TREND RAIN CHANCES DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS IT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE A DECENT LULL IN THE RAIN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THAT AREA. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG NEAR THE SOUTHERN SC/NORTHERN GA COASTAL AREAS AS THE
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS SHIFTS OVER THE COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WE DO EXPECT SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH BUT SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS LOOK VERY LOW
OVER LAND GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...MAINLY CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN HAZARD BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS SHEAR IS ENHANCED ALONG
THE FRONT.

HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S SOUTH AND EAST BUT REMAIN CLOSER TO
70 NORTH AND WEST AS THOSE AREAS WILL BE IN THE LINGERING WEDGE
THE LONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT DISPLACED JUST TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE AS A POWERFUL...
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PIVOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
ALTHOUGH ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
PROGRESS AT SUNSET...MESOSCALE MODELS HINT THAT AT A SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF
A QLCS/SQUALL LINE...COULD BE APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
CORRIDOR OF INTENSE UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ITSELF AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONT. NAM12 INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES REACHING AS HIGH
AS 800-1200 J/KG WITHIN THE CORE OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH
IMPRESSIVE KINEMATIC PROFILES FEATURING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF 50-55 KT ALIGNED WITH A CORRIDOR OF SHERBS3 VALUES OF 1-1.25
UNITS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY WEAK TO MODEST AT
BEST...IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO COVER COME
THIS TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OR EVEN A STRENGTHENING OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS LINE LOOKS TO
BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TIER CLOSER TO THE WARM
FRONT. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY MODERATE AT BEST AT
THIS POINT IN TIME AND FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL BE NEED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

POPS OF OF 30-50 PERCENT WILL BE DEPICTED TONIGHT WITH GRIDDED
POPS REACHING AS HIGH AS 60-70 PERCENT ALIGNED WITH THE EXPECTED
PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. IT WILL BE BE A WARM/HUMID NIGHT
WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
DESPITE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE.
IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL
UNFOLD GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT ITS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WILL SHOW
AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...ROUGHLY TIMED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SQUALL LINE.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGING
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND
STEADY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS NEARLY PARALLEL
ORIENTATION TO THE UPPER FLOW. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE
DYNAMICS AND FORCING WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...CONVECTION
APPEARS LIMITED TO A NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG
THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WILL THUS KEEP RAIN CHANCES CAPPED IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CLOSER TO
THE COAST...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON CONSIDERING A
WARMER START TO THE DAY AND PERSISTENT SOLID SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND GIVEN THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DRIER
AIR APPROACHES IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...FALLING INTO UPPER 40S FAR
INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO PUSH EASTWARD. STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE DUE TO THE LACK OF A CLEAN FRONTAL PROGRESSION...AND
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
MEANDERING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE ZONE. BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SUGGEST THAT RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS TOWARD THE
AREA AND THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE INDICATED POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE ALL AREAS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...INCREASING TO LIKELY RAIN FOR THE
COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S AND NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS IN THE LOW 40S.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE WILL STEADILY LIFT NORTH
UP THE COAST...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. THE DAY WILL
BEGIN WITH A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN RAIN COVERAGE...WITH THE
CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA SEEING NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND THE
GEORGIA ZONES FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER SEEING
SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...AND EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE EVENING HOURS. THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...AND COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY...
DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREVAILING IFR LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE STEADIEST RAIN AND GENERALLY WORSE
CONDS WILL BE AT KCHS WHICH WILL BE IN THE COOL SECTOR LONGEST. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AT BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
LIKELY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN A CONCERN UNTIL THE FRONT
PASSES AND SURFACE WINDS PICK UP. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWER/TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A
SQUALL LINE. FOR NOW LIMITED CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH A MENTION FOR
TSRA. LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ONCE THE SQUALL
LINE MOVES THROUGH. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS ON EXACTLY HOW
WIDESPREAD/DENSE THE STRATUS/FOG WILL BECOME...SO LIMITED
CONDITIONS TO JUST ABOVE AIRFIELD ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AT BOTH
TERMINALS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS...AND GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A COLD FRONT PULLS FARTHER
OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS
TODAY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND A COASTAL FRONT
SHIFTS INLAND. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME GIVEN THE COLD SHELF WATERS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS
WERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S PER LATEST MODIS
SST IMAGERY. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH DEEPER MIXING PROFILES WHICH A
RISK FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES. PER COLLABORATION WITH
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WARNING WILL BE POSTED FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL BE
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-8
FT NEARSHORE WATERS...EXCEPT 6-10 FT CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
7-12 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST AS WELL AS THE WARM/HUMID AIR MOVES IN OVER THE
COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SC/NORTHERN GA COAST.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT WITH THE AREA FIRMLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...BUT BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LINGER WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 4-8 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...HIGHEST
OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...WITH 7-9 FT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEG.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED TO END MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK AND MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT A LATER
TIME.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO NEAR 12 FT AT BUOY 41004 WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS NEAR THE COAST OCCURRING OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COAST. THIS COULD PRODUCE BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 5
FT...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES OF
CHARLESTON COUNTY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST AREAS HAVE PICKED UP ABOUT 0.5-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SO FAR. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE URBAN COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE ADDED
INFLUENCE FROM THE TIDES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961.
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942.
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCAE 231535
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1035 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT LOW
CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NAM LI PATTERN SUPPORTS THE WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY. THE CLOUDINESS AND RAIN SHOULD HELP HOLD
DOWN TEMPERATURES. SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT WITH A LACK
OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY SHOULD REMAIN
LOW.

TONIGHT...
BY THIS EVENING...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SE AND S AS 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES. THE SHEAR
SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LITTLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. THE NAM
DISPLAYS JUST WEAK INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE BASED LI/S -1 TO -2 IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND
11 PM. SPC WRF SHOWS A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE 6 PM TO 11 PM PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
ALTHOUGH THEY MAY RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. THE MID/UPPER FLOW
BEGINS TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
INTO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THEM TO QUITE WARM MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY.
WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS
THE CWA...BUT LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO
BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MENTION OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z/06Z NAM IS STILL
THE FARTHEST EWD OF THE SYSTEMS BY TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE CWA WILL
HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THERE WILL LIKELY BY A CHILLY RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE
TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE FRONT MAY LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG AND SOME OF THIS WIND MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN
THE POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE OR WITH ANY OTHER STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
BASED ON THE NAM AND 88D VAD WIND PROFILES WE HAVE INCLUDED LLWS
IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
MAY OCCUR IN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS MAY ALSO OCCUR MONDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHWARD NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 231530 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1030 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
AREA OF BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND THUS MAINLY JUST SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HAVE ONLY SEEN A HANDFUL OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITHIN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF AND ARE ALREADY SEEING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMING SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAGRANGE TO FORSYTH TO
WARRENTON. HAVE CUT BACK THE MENTION ON SEVERE IN THE GRIDS NORTH
OF THIS LINE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
MAKING IT NORTH OF THAT LINE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES ARE TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...FORECAST IS ON
TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. BESIDES ADJUSTING THE AREA FOR SEVERE
WORDING IN THE GRIDS...HAVE ALSO SLOWED THE WARMING TREND ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CURRENTLY COVERING THE FORECAST
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN GULF AND BROAD DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE STRONGER
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INSTABILITY IS
LACKING AND FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY CONVECTION
OF EVEN MODERATE DEPTH WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE. VWP DATA FROM
REGIONAL RADARS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS HAVE YET TO LOWER BELOW
ABOUT 10-15KFT AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODERATE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LATER TODAY AS WELL.
BETTER FORCING LATER TODAY AS THE STRONGER WAVE LIFTS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE INSTABILITY IS BEST. NORTHERN RANGE OF
THIS THREAT WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN
LIFT. CURRENT SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS THE EXPECTED EXTENT WELL.
MAY BE A SLIGHT LULL IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD SPREAD IN ONCE AGAIN BY
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
STATE AND END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
MOISTURE STARTS STREAMING BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE DEEPENING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. HIGHEST POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OVER EAST CENTRAL ZONES.
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AND WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOW SHOWERS FOR FAR NORTH GA
BUT THAT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE MOISTURE ACTUALLY GETS. HAVE
LEFT ANY POPS OUT AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.

41

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT CROSS THE AREA THROUGH 00Z. EMBEDDED...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 00Z. EAST WINDS 8-12KT WILL INCREASE
WITH GUSTS 17-22KT...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  52  68  40 / 100  80  20  10
ATLANTA         60  54  66  41 / 100  60  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  49  61  34 / 100  80  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    60  52  65  36 / 100  50  20  10
COLUMBUS        66  59  72  42 / 100  50  20  10
GAINESVILLE     57  52  64  40 / 100  80  20  10
MACON           66  60  73  43 / 100  70  20  10
ROME            59  52  63  36 / 100  50  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  61  54  67  38 / 100  50  20  10
VIDALIA         71  64  74  49 / 100  80  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11




000
FXUS62 KFFC 231530 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1030 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
AREA OF BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND THUS MAINLY JUST SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HAVE ONLY SEEN A HANDFUL OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITHIN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF AND ARE ALREADY SEEING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMING SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAGRANGE TO FORSYTH TO
WARRENTON. HAVE CUT BACK THE MENTION ON SEVERE IN THE GRIDS NORTH
OF THIS LINE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
MAKING IT NORTH OF THAT LINE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES ARE TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...FORECAST IS ON
TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. BESIDES ADJUSTING THE AREA FOR SEVERE
WORDING IN THE GRIDS...HAVE ALSO SLOWED THE WARMING TREND ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CURRENTLY COVERING THE FORECAST
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN GULF AND BROAD DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE STRONGER
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INSTABILITY IS
LACKING AND FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY CONVECTION
OF EVEN MODERATE DEPTH WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE. VWP DATA FROM
REGIONAL RADARS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS HAVE YET TO LOWER BELOW
ABOUT 10-15KFT AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODERATE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LATER TODAY AS WELL.
BETTER FORCING LATER TODAY AS THE STRONGER WAVE LIFTS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE INSTABILITY IS BEST. NORTHERN RANGE OF
THIS THREAT WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN
LIFT. CURRENT SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS THE EXPECTED EXTENT WELL.
MAY BE A SLIGHT LULL IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD SPREAD IN ONCE AGAIN BY
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
STATE AND END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
MOISTURE STARTS STREAMING BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE DEEPENING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. HIGHEST POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OVER EAST CENTRAL ZONES.
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AND WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOW SHOWERS FOR FAR NORTH GA
BUT THAT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE MOISTURE ACTUALLY GETS. HAVE
LEFT ANY POPS OUT AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.

41

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT CROSS THE AREA THROUGH 00Z. EMBEDDED...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 00Z. EAST WINDS 8-12KT WILL INCREASE
WITH GUSTS 17-22KT...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  52  68  40 / 100  80  20  10
ATLANTA         60  54  66  41 / 100  60  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  49  61  34 / 100  80  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    60  52  65  36 / 100  50  20  10
COLUMBUS        66  59  72  42 / 100  50  20  10
GAINESVILLE     57  52  64  40 / 100  80  20  10
MACON           66  60  73  43 / 100  70  20  10
ROME            59  52  63  36 / 100  50  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  61  54  67  38 / 100  50  20  10
VIDALIA         71  64  74  49 / 100  80  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11



000
FXUS62 KCAE 231515
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1015 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT LOW
CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NAM LI PATTERN SUPPORTS THE WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY. THE CLOUDINESS AND RAIN SHOULD HELP HOLD
DOWN TEMPERATURES. SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT WITH A LACK
OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY SHOULD REMAIN
LOW.

TONIGHT...
BY THIS EVENING...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SE AND S AS 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES. THE SHEAR
SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LITTLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. THE NAM
DISPLAYS JUST WEAK INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE BASED LI/S -1 TO -2 IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM.
SPC WRF SHOWS A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE 6 PM
TO 11 PM PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD
LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
ALTHOUGH THEY MAY RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. THE MID/UPPER FLOW
BEGINS TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
INTO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THEM TO QUITE WARM MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY.
WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS
THE CWA...BUT LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO
BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MENTION OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z/06Z NAM IS STILL
THE FARTHEST EWD OF THE SYSTEMS BY TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE CWA WILL
HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THERE WILL LIKELY BY A CHILLY RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE
TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE FRONT MAY LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND CROSS THE AREA DURING THE 23Z TO 04Z TIME
FRAME. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VERY STRONG AND SOME OF THIS WIND MAY
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE OR WITH ANY
OTHER STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BASED ON THE NAM AND 88D VAD WIND
PROFILES WE HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
MAY OCCUR IN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS MAY ALSO OCCUR MONDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHWARD NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 231515
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1015 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT LOW
CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NAM LI PATTERN SUPPORTS THE WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY. THE CLOUDINESS AND RAIN SHOULD HELP HOLD
DOWN TEMPERATURES. SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT WITH A LACK
OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY SHOULD REMAIN
LOW.

TONIGHT...
BY THIS EVENING...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SE AND S AS 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES. THE SHEAR
SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LITTLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. THE NAM
DISPLAYS JUST WEAK INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE BASED LI/S -1 TO -2 IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM.
SPC WRF SHOWS A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE 6 PM
TO 11 PM PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD
LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
ALTHOUGH THEY MAY RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. THE MID/UPPER FLOW
BEGINS TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
INTO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THEM TO QUITE WARM MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY.
WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS
THE CWA...BUT LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO
BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MENTION OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z/06Z NAM IS STILL
THE FARTHEST EWD OF THE SYSTEMS BY TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE CWA WILL
HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THERE WILL LIKELY BY A CHILLY RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE
TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE FRONT MAY LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND CROSS THE AREA DURING THE 23Z TO 04Z TIME
FRAME. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VERY STRONG AND SOME OF THIS WIND MAY
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE OR WITH ANY
OTHER STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BASED ON THE NAM AND 88D VAD WIND
PROFILES WE HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
MAY OCCUR IN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS MAY ALSO OCCUR MONDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHWARD NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 231515
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1015 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT LOW
CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NAM LI PATTERN SUPPORTS THE WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY. THE CLOUDINESS AND RAIN SHOULD HELP HOLD
DOWN TEMPERATURES. SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT WITH A LACK
OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY SHOULD REMAIN
LOW.

TONIGHT...
BY THIS EVENING...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SE AND S AS 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES. THE SHEAR
SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LITTLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. THE NAM
DISPLAYS JUST WEAK INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE BASED LI/S -1 TO -2 IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM.
SPC WRF SHOWS A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE 6 PM
TO 11 PM PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD
LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
ALTHOUGH THEY MAY RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. THE MID/UPPER FLOW
BEGINS TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
INTO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THEM TO QUITE WARM MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY.
WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS
THE CWA...BUT LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO
BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MENTION OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z/06Z NAM IS STILL
THE FARTHEST EWD OF THE SYSTEMS BY TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE CWA WILL
HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THERE WILL LIKELY BY A CHILLY RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE
TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE FRONT MAY LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND CROSS THE AREA DURING THE 23Z TO 04Z TIME
FRAME. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VERY STRONG AND SOME OF THIS WIND MAY
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE OR WITH ANY
OTHER STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BASED ON THE NAM AND 88D VAD WIND
PROFILES WE HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
MAY OCCUR IN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS MAY ALSO OCCUR MONDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHWARD NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 231515
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1015 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT LOW
CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NAM LI PATTERN SUPPORTS THE WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY. THE CLOUDINESS AND RAIN SHOULD HELP HOLD
DOWN TEMPERATURES. SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT WITH A LACK
OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY SHOULD REMAIN
LOW.

TONIGHT...
BY THIS EVENING...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SE AND S AS 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES. THE SHEAR
SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LITTLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. THE NAM
DISPLAYS JUST WEAK INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE BASED LI/S -1 TO -2 IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM.
SPC WRF SHOWS A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE 6 PM
TO 11 PM PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD
LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
ALTHOUGH THEY MAY RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. THE MID/UPPER FLOW
BEGINS TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
INTO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THEM TO QUITE WARM MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY.
WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS
THE CWA...BUT LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO
BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MENTION OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z/06Z NAM IS STILL
THE FARTHEST EWD OF THE SYSTEMS BY TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE CWA WILL
HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THERE WILL LIKELY BY A CHILLY RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE
TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE FRONT MAY LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND CROSS THE AREA DURING THE 23Z TO 04Z TIME
FRAME. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VERY STRONG AND SOME OF THIS WIND MAY
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE OR WITH ANY
OTHER STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BASED ON THE NAM AND 88D VAD WIND
PROFILES WE HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
MAY OCCUR IN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS MAY ALSO OCCUR MONDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHWARD NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 231416
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
916 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...
WV LOOP SHOWS STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED S/W MOVING ACROSS
LOUISIANA THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY/GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE
REGION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRY AND HOLD ON ALONG THE
NC COAST AND RIDGE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS LIFT
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS AN INVERTED TROF WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE
DAY AND EXPECT RAIN/SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. THE RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. PW VALUES HAVE BEEN INCREASING. THESE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH VALUES APPROACHING 2.0
INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/EASTERN CWA. THIS IS QUITE A
BIT HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES AND SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES. CURRENT RAINFALL HELPING TO
CREATE AND MAINTAIN THE WEDGE PATTERN. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OBS INDICATE NE
WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. HOWEVER...VWP
SHOWS ESE WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT 1K FT ABOVE THE SURFACE.
OBSERVING MODEL LI FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE WEDGE WILL HOLD IN FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME
MORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT QUITE A GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
CWA. HAVE GONE BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EXTREME SRN CSRA
REGION.

TONIGHT...
BY THIS EVENING...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SE AND S AS 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS BACKED OFF THE SEVERE THREAT SLIGHTLY FOR
LATE THIS EVENING...WITH THE SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE COAST AND A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CSRA AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS. THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES ACROSS THOSE
REGIONS. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT
THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM. SPC WRF SHOWS A
SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE 6 PM TO 11 PM
PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD LIKELY BE
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
THEY MAY RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. THE MID/UPPER FLOW
BEGINS TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
INTO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THEM TO QUITE WARM MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY.
WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS
THE CWA...BUT LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO
BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MENTION OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z/06Z NAM IS STILL
THE FARTHEST EWD OF THE SYSTEMS BY TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE CWA WILL
HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THERE WILL LIKELY BY A CHILLY RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE
TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE FRONT MAY LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND CROSS THE AREA DURING THE 23Z TO 04Z TIME
FRAME. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VERY STRONG AND SOME OF THIS WIND MAY
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE OR WITH ANY
OTHER STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BASED ON THE NAM AND 88D VAD WIND
PROFILES WE HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
MAY OCCUR IN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS MAY ALSO OCCUR MONDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHWARD NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 231416
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
916 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...
WV LOOP SHOWS STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED S/W MOVING ACROSS
LOUISIANA THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY/GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE
REGION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRY AND HOLD ON ALONG THE
NC COAST AND RIDGE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS LIFT
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS AN INVERTED TROF WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE
DAY AND EXPECT RAIN/SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. THE RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. PW VALUES HAVE BEEN INCREASING. THESE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH VALUES APPROACHING 2.0
INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/EASTERN CWA. THIS IS QUITE A
BIT HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES AND SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES. CURRENT RAINFALL HELPING TO
CREATE AND MAINTAIN THE WEDGE PATTERN. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OBS INDICATE NE
WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. HOWEVER...VWP
SHOWS ESE WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT 1K FT ABOVE THE SURFACE.
OBSERVING MODEL LI FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE WEDGE WILL HOLD IN FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME
MORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT QUITE A GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
CWA. HAVE GONE BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EXTREME SRN CSRA
REGION.

TONIGHT...
BY THIS EVENING...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SE AND S AS 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS BACKED OFF THE SEVERE THREAT SLIGHTLY FOR
LATE THIS EVENING...WITH THE SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE COAST AND A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CSRA AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS. THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES ACROSS THOSE
REGIONS. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT
THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM. SPC WRF SHOWS A
SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE 6 PM TO 11 PM
PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD LIKELY BE
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
THEY MAY RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. THE MID/UPPER FLOW
BEGINS TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
INTO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THEM TO QUITE WARM MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY.
WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS
THE CWA...BUT LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO
BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MENTION OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z/06Z NAM IS STILL
THE FARTHEST EWD OF THE SYSTEMS BY TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE CWA WILL
HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THERE WILL LIKELY BY A CHILLY RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE
TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE FRONT MAY LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND CROSS THE AREA DURING THE 23Z TO 04Z TIME
FRAME. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VERY STRONG AND SOME OF THIS WIND MAY
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE OR WITH ANY
OTHER STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BASED ON THE NAM AND 88D VAD WIND
PROFILES WE HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
MAY OCCUR IN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS MAY ALSO OCCUR MONDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHWARD NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 231243
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
743 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...
WV LOOP SHOWS STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED S/W MOVING ACROSS
LOUISIANA THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY/GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE
REGION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRY AND HOLD ON ALONG THE
NC COAST AND RIDGE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS LIFT
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS AN INVERTED TROF WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE
DAY AND EXPECT RAIN/SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. THE RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. PW VALUES HAVE BEEN INCREASING. THESE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH VALUES APPROACHING 2.0
INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/EASTERN CWA. THIS IS QUITE A
BIT HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES AND SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES. CURRENT RAINFALL HELPING TO
CREATE AND MAINTAIN THE WEDGE PATTERN. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OBS INDICATE NE
WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. HOWEVER...VWP
SHOWS ESE WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT 1K FT ABOVE THE SURFACE.
OBSERVING MODEL LI FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE WEDGE WILL HOLD IN FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME
MORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT QUITE A GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
CWA. HAVE GONE BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EXTREME SRN CSRA
REGION.

TONIGHT...
BY THIS EVENING...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SE AND S AS 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS BACKED OFF THE SEVERE THREAT SLIGHTLY FOR
LATE THIS EVENING...WITH THE SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE COAST AND A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CSRA AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS. THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES ACROSS THOSE
REGIONS. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT
THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM. SPC WRF SHOWS A
SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE 6 PM TO 11 PM
PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD LIKELY BE
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
THEY MAY RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. THE MID/UPPER FLOW
BEGINS TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
INTO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THEM TO QUITE WARM MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY.
WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS
THE CWA...BUT LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO
BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MENTION OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z/06Z NAM IS STILL
THE FARTHEST EWD OF THE SYSTEMS BY TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE CWA WILL
HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THERE WILL LIKELY BY A CHILLY RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE
TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.

SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION BEING LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE
HAS RESULTED IN DEVELOPING IFR/LIFR CIGS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY WITH LOWERING CIGS AND
VSBYS BECAUSE OF RAIN AND BEING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME
LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO
CROSS THE AREA 23Z-02Z AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE REGION. STRONG WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 231243
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
743 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...
WV LOOP SHOWS STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED S/W MOVING ACROSS
LOUISIANA THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY/GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE
REGION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRY AND HOLD ON ALONG THE
NC COAST AND RIDGE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS LIFT
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS AN INVERTED TROF WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE
DAY AND EXPECT RAIN/SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. THE RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. PW VALUES HAVE BEEN INCREASING. THESE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH VALUES APPROACHING 2.0
INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/EASTERN CWA. THIS IS QUITE A
BIT HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES AND SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES. CURRENT RAINFALL HELPING TO
CREATE AND MAINTAIN THE WEDGE PATTERN. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OBS INDICATE NE
WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. HOWEVER...VWP
SHOWS ESE WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT 1K FT ABOVE THE SURFACE.
OBSERVING MODEL LI FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE WEDGE WILL HOLD IN FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME
MORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT QUITE A GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
CWA. HAVE GONE BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EXTREME SRN CSRA
REGION.

TONIGHT...
BY THIS EVENING...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SE AND S AS 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS BACKED OFF THE SEVERE THREAT SLIGHTLY FOR
LATE THIS EVENING...WITH THE SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE COAST AND A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CSRA AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS. THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES ACROSS THOSE
REGIONS. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT
THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM. SPC WRF SHOWS A
SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE 6 PM TO 11 PM
PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD LIKELY BE
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
THEY MAY RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. THE MID/UPPER FLOW
BEGINS TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
INTO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THEM TO QUITE WARM MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY.
WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS
THE CWA...BUT LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO
BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MENTION OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z/06Z NAM IS STILL
THE FARTHEST EWD OF THE SYSTEMS BY TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE CWA WILL
HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THERE WILL LIKELY BY A CHILLY RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE
TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.

SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION BEING LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE
HAS RESULTED IN DEVELOPING IFR/LIFR CIGS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY WITH LOWERING CIGS AND
VSBYS BECAUSE OF RAIN AND BEING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME
LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO
CROSS THE AREA 23Z-02Z AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE REGION. STRONG WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 231152
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
652 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GA/SC INTO NC. EXPECT
PLENTY OF RAINFALL TO OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV LOOP SHOWS STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED S/W MOVING ACROSS LOUISIANA
THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY/GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REGION...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRY AND HOLD ON ALONG THE NC COAST AND RIDGE
BACK INTO THE PALMETTO STATE. MODELS LIFT THE S/W AND ASSOCIATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST BY THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AND UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS AN
INVERTED TROF WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.

88D REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS A LARGE ARE OF RAIN ACROSS GA INTO
SC AND PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO NC THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE DAY AND EXPECT
RAIN/SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. PW VALUES HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS VALUES RANGING FROM 1.6 INCHES ACROSS
THE CSRA TO JUST OVER 1.0 INCH ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. THESE
VALUES WILL CONTINUE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH VALUES
APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/EASTERN
CWA. THIS IS QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE
NOVEMBER. THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
AROUND 2 INCHES AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES.
CURRENT RAINFALL HELPING TO CREATE AND MAINTAIN WEAK WEDGE THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT OBS AND VWP. OBS
INDICATE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
HOWEVER...VWP SHOWS ESE WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT 1K FT ABOVE THE
SURFACE. OBSERVING MODEL LI FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE WEDGE WILL
HOLD IN FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST/EAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT QUITE A GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
CWA. HAVE GONE BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EXTREME SRN CSRA
REGION. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...SURFACE
FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS BACKED OFF THE SEVERE
THREAT SLIGHTLY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE
SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE COAST AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CSRA AND EASTERN MIDLANDS. THIS APPEARS
TO BE WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES ACROSS THOSE REGIONS. THE BEST TIME FRAME
FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN
6 PM AND 11 PM. SPC WRF SHOWS A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE 6 PM TO 11 PM PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR
THE WARM FRONT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...DO NO EXPECT
MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THEY MAY RISE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THE
MID/UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO NEXT S/W DIGGING SEWD
INTO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THEM TO QUITE WARM ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY. WILL
BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER
70S. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO BE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MENTION OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z/06Z NAM IS STILL
THE FARTHEST EWD OF THE SYSTEMS BY TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE CWA
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE
TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION BEING
LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE HAS RESULTED IN
DEVELOPING IFR/LIFR CIGS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION DURING THE DAY WITH LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO RAIN AND
BEING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 23Z-02Z AND
HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE EAST AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. STRONG WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 231152
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
652 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GA/SC INTO NC. EXPECT
PLENTY OF RAINFALL TO OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV LOOP SHOWS STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED S/W MOVING ACROSS LOUISIANA
THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY/GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REGION...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRY AND HOLD ON ALONG THE NC COAST AND RIDGE
BACK INTO THE PALMETTO STATE. MODELS LIFT THE S/W AND ASSOCIATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST BY THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AND UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS AN
INVERTED TROF WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.

88D REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS A LARGE ARE OF RAIN ACROSS GA INTO
SC AND PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO NC THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE DAY AND EXPECT
RAIN/SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. PW VALUES HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS VALUES RANGING FROM 1.6 INCHES ACROSS
THE CSRA TO JUST OVER 1.0 INCH ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. THESE
VALUES WILL CONTINUE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH VALUES
APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/EASTERN
CWA. THIS IS QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE
NOVEMBER. THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
AROUND 2 INCHES AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES.
CURRENT RAINFALL HELPING TO CREATE AND MAINTAIN WEAK WEDGE THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT OBS AND VWP. OBS
INDICATE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
HOWEVER...VWP SHOWS ESE WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT 1K FT ABOVE THE
SURFACE. OBSERVING MODEL LI FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE WEDGE WILL
HOLD IN FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST/EAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT QUITE A GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
CWA. HAVE GONE BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EXTREME SRN CSRA
REGION. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...SURFACE
FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS BACKED OFF THE SEVERE
THREAT SLIGHTLY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE
SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE COAST AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CSRA AND EASTERN MIDLANDS. THIS APPEARS
TO BE WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES ACROSS THOSE REGIONS. THE BEST TIME FRAME
FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN
6 PM AND 11 PM. SPC WRF SHOWS A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE 6 PM TO 11 PM PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR
THE WARM FRONT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...DO NO EXPECT
MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THEY MAY RISE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THE
MID/UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO NEXT S/W DIGGING SEWD
INTO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THEM TO QUITE WARM ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY. WILL
BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER
70S. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO BE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MENTION OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z/06Z NAM IS STILL
THE FARTHEST EWD OF THE SYSTEMS BY TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE CWA
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE
TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION BEING
LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE HAS RESULTED IN
DEVELOPING IFR/LIFR CIGS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION DURING THE DAY WITH LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO RAIN AND
BEING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 23Z-02Z AND
HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE EAST AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. STRONG WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 231152
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
652 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GA/SC INTO NC. EXPECT
PLENTY OF RAINFALL TO OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV LOOP SHOWS STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED S/W MOVING ACROSS LOUISIANA
THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY/GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REGION...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRY AND HOLD ON ALONG THE NC COAST AND RIDGE
BACK INTO THE PALMETTO STATE. MODELS LIFT THE S/W AND ASSOCIATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST BY THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AND UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS AN
INVERTED TROF WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.

88D REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS A LARGE ARE OF RAIN ACROSS GA INTO
SC AND PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO NC THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE DAY AND EXPECT
RAIN/SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. PW VALUES HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS VALUES RANGING FROM 1.6 INCHES ACROSS
THE CSRA TO JUST OVER 1.0 INCH ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. THESE
VALUES WILL CONTINUE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH VALUES
APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/EASTERN
CWA. THIS IS QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE
NOVEMBER. THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
AROUND 2 INCHES AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES.
CURRENT RAINFALL HELPING TO CREATE AND MAINTAIN WEAK WEDGE THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT OBS AND VWP. OBS
INDICATE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
HOWEVER...VWP SHOWS ESE WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT 1K FT ABOVE THE
SURFACE. OBSERVING MODEL LI FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE WEDGE WILL
HOLD IN FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST/EAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT QUITE A GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
CWA. HAVE GONE BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EXTREME SRN CSRA
REGION. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...SURFACE
FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS BACKED OFF THE SEVERE
THREAT SLIGHTLY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE
SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE COAST AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CSRA AND EASTERN MIDLANDS. THIS APPEARS
TO BE WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES ACROSS THOSE REGIONS. THE BEST TIME FRAME
FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN
6 PM AND 11 PM. SPC WRF SHOWS A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE 6 PM TO 11 PM PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR
THE WARM FRONT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...DO NO EXPECT
MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THEY MAY RISE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THE
MID/UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO NEXT S/W DIGGING SEWD
INTO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THEM TO QUITE WARM ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY. WILL
BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER
70S. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO BE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MENTION OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z/06Z NAM IS STILL
THE FARTHEST EWD OF THE SYSTEMS BY TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE CWA
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE
TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION BEING
LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE HAS RESULTED IN
DEVELOPING IFR/LIFR CIGS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION DURING THE DAY WITH LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO RAIN AND
BEING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 23Z-02Z AND
HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE EAST AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. STRONG WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 231152
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
652 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GA/SC INTO NC. EXPECT
PLENTY OF RAINFALL TO OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV LOOP SHOWS STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED S/W MOVING ACROSS LOUISIANA
THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY/GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REGION...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRY AND HOLD ON ALONG THE NC COAST AND RIDGE
BACK INTO THE PALMETTO STATE. MODELS LIFT THE S/W AND ASSOCIATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST BY THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AND UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS AN
INVERTED TROF WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.

88D REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS A LARGE ARE OF RAIN ACROSS GA INTO
SC AND PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO NC THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE DAY AND EXPECT
RAIN/SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. PW VALUES HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS VALUES RANGING FROM 1.6 INCHES ACROSS
THE CSRA TO JUST OVER 1.0 INCH ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. THESE
VALUES WILL CONTINUE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH VALUES
APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/EASTERN
CWA. THIS IS QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE
NOVEMBER. THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
AROUND 2 INCHES AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES.
CURRENT RAINFALL HELPING TO CREATE AND MAINTAIN WEAK WEDGE THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT OBS AND VWP. OBS
INDICATE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
HOWEVER...VWP SHOWS ESE WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT 1K FT ABOVE THE
SURFACE. OBSERVING MODEL LI FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE WEDGE WILL
HOLD IN FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST/EAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT QUITE A GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
CWA. HAVE GONE BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EXTREME SRN CSRA
REGION. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...SURFACE
FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS BACKED OFF THE SEVERE
THREAT SLIGHTLY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE
SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE COAST AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CSRA AND EASTERN MIDLANDS. THIS APPEARS
TO BE WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES ACROSS THOSE REGIONS. THE BEST TIME FRAME
FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN
6 PM AND 11 PM. SPC WRF SHOWS A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE 6 PM TO 11 PM PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR
THE WARM FRONT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...DO NO EXPECT
MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THEY MAY RISE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THE
MID/UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO NEXT S/W DIGGING SEWD
INTO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THEM TO QUITE WARM ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY. WILL
BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER
70S. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO BE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MENTION OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z/06Z NAM IS STILL
THE FARTHEST EWD OF THE SYSTEMS BY TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE CWA
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE
TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION BEING
LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE HAS RESULTED IN
DEVELOPING IFR/LIFR CIGS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION DURING THE DAY WITH LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO RAIN AND
BEING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 23Z-02Z AND
HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE EAST AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. STRONG WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KFFC 231133 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
635 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CURRENTLY COVERING THE FORECAST
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN GULF AND BROAD DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE STRONGER
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INSTABILITY IS
LACKING AND FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY CONVECTION
OF EVEN MODERATE DEPTH WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE. VWP DATA FROM
REGIONAL RADARS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS HAVE YET TO LOWER BELOW
ABOUT 10-15KFT AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODERATE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LATER TODAY AS WELL.
BETTER FORCING LATER TODAY AS THE STRONGER WAVE LIFTS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE INSTABILITY IS BEST. NORTHERN RANGE OF
THIS THREAT WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN
LIFT. CURRENT SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS THE EXPECTED EXTENT WELL.
MAY BE A SLIGHT LULL IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD SPREAD IN ONCE AGAIN BY
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
STATE AND END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.

20


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
MOISTURE STARTS STREAMING BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE DEEPENING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. HIGHEST POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OVER EAST CENTRAL ZONES.
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AND WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOW SHOWERS FOR FAR NORTH GA
BUT THAT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE MOISTURE ACTUALLY GETS. HAVE
LEFT ANY POPS OUT AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.

41


&&

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT CROSS THE AREA THROUGH 00Z. EMBEDDED...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 00Z. EAST WINDS 8-12KT WILL INCREASE
WITH GUSTS 17-22KT...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  52  68  40 / 100  80  20  10
ATLANTA         60  54  66  41 / 100  60  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  49  61  34 / 100  80  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    60  52  65  36 / 100  50  20  10
COLUMBUS        66  59  72  42 / 100  50  20  10
GAINESVILLE     57  52  64  40 / 100  80  20  10
MACON           66  60  73  43 / 100  70  20  10
ROME            59  52  63  36 / 100  50  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  61  54  67  38 / 100  50  20  10
VIDALIA         71  64  74  49 / 100  80  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20



000
FXUS62 KCHS 231109
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
609 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

...HEAVY RAINS WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT...
...RECORD DAILY RAINFALL LIKELY...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PULLS THE FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A POWERFUL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS TREKKING QUICKLY ACROSS
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS EVENING. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
FEATURING PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ADVECTING NORTH VIA 40-60 KT OF 850
HPA FLOW COUPLED WITH AN EXPANDING CORRIDOR OF UPPER DIFLUENCE
FORMING OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD RAINS OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGIA
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN BOTH AREA AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE COMBINATION OF ANONYMOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE AND INCREASING UPPER
DYNAMICS BECOME ALIGNED.

THE WINDOW FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THEN ARCHING BACK INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO A POSITION OFF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST MOVES NORTH. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING THE INLAND WEDGE
STEADILY BREAKING DOWN AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. IN FACT...MODEST PRESSURE FALLS
ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE CORE OF THE WEDGE...WHICH SUGGEST
WEAKENING IS ALREADY IN PROGRESS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT
AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS TO LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
PEE DEE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AFTER DROPPING SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAIN ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE. POPS NEAR 100
PERCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL AREAS TODAY...ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHING POPS DOWN INTO THE 30-50 PERCENT CATEGORY WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT
AS THE STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASSENT AND LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALL SHIFT NORTH WITH THE FRONT.

PINNING DOWN HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY INLAND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS...WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL REACH VERY LATE IN
THE DAY. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL HERE... ESPECIALLY
OVER PARTS OF ALLENDALE-JENKINS-SCREVEN COUNTIES WHERE IT IS
POSSIBLE THE WEDGE MAY NOT ERODE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THESE THREE ZONES WITH LOWER- MID 70S
ELSEWHERE. FURTHER REFINEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ONCE MESOSCALE TRENDS AND WARM FRONTAL TIMING BECOMES
MORE APPARENT.

THERE WILL BE TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...ONE
WITH THE WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE
SECOND ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS TONIGHT.
FOR TODAY...ITS A TYPICAL LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SCENARIO. SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK WITH MODIFIED SOUNDINGS ONLY
YIELDING 500-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -2 TO -4C.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS POOR...KINEMATIC PROFILES BECOME QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH AS MUCH AS 50-60 KT OF BULK
SHEAR AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES REACHING AS HIGH AS 500-700
M2/S2. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WHERE LOW- LEVEL VORTICITY AND SHERBS3 VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 UNIT
WILL BE MAXIMIZED...ALTHOUGH ANY CONVECTIVE CELL IN THE WARM
SECTOR COULD EASILY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS WITH AN IMPRESSIVE A
50-60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE. AN ARGUABLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE TSTMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT DISPLACED JUST TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE AS A POWERFUL...
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PIVOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
ALTHOUGH ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
PROGRESS AT SUNSET...MESOSCALE MODELS HINT THAT AT A SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF
A QLCS/SQUALL LINE...COULD BE APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
CORRIDOR OF INTENSE UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ITSELF AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONT. NAM12 INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES REACHING AS HIGH
AS 800-1200 J/KG WITHIN THE CORE OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH
IMPRESSIVE KINEMATIC PROFILES FEATURING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF 50-55 KT ALIGNED WITH A CORRIDOR OF SHERBS3 VALUES OF 1-1.25
UNITS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY WEAK TO MODEST AT
BEST...IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO COVER COME
THIS TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OR EVEN A STRENGTHENING OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS LINE LOOKS TO
BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TIER CLOSER TO THE WARM
FRONT. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY MODERATE AT BEST AT
THIS POINT IN TIME AND FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL BE NEED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

POPS OF OF 30-50 PERCENT WILL BE DEPICTED TONIGHT WITH GRIDDED
POPS REACHING AS HIGH AS 60-70 PERCENT ALIGNED WITH THE EXPECTED
PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. IT WILL BE BE A WARM/HUMID NIGHT
WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
DESPITE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE.
IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL
UNFOLD GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT ITS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WILL SHOW
AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...ROUGHLY TIMED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SQUALL LINE.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGING
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND
STEADY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS NEARLY PARALLEL
ORIENTATION TO THE UPPER FLOW. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE
DYNAMICS AND FORCING WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...CONVECTION
APPEARS LIMITED TO A NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG
THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WILL THUS KEEP RAIN CHANCES CAPPED IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CLOSER TO
THE COAST...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON CONSIDERING A
WARMER START TO THE DAY AND PERSISTENT SOLID SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND GIVEN THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DRIER
AIR APPROACHES IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...FALLING INTO UPPER 40S FAR
INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO PUSH EASTWARD. STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE DUE TO THE LACK OF A CLEAN FRONTAL PROGRESSION...AND
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
MEANDERING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE ZONE. BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SUGGEST THAT RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS TOWARD THE
AREA AND THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE INDICATED POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE ALL AREAS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...INCREASING TO LIKELY RAIN FOR THE
COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S AND NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS IN THE LOW 40S.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE WILL STEADILY LIFT NORTH
UP THE COAST...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. THE DAY WILL
BEGIN WITH A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN RAIN COVERAGE...WITH THE
CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA SEEING NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND THE
GEORGIA ZONES FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER SEEING
SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...AND EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE EVENING HOURS. THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...AND COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY...
DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AT THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. HEAVY RAINS HAVE REACHED KSAV AND WILL IMPACT KCHS BY
SUNRISE. PREVAILING IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING WITH THE STEADIER RAINS ENDING FROM SOUTH-NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. THE HEAVIER RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO END AT KSAV BY 16Z AND KCHS BY 19Z. UNTIL THEN...IFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES DURING POCKETS OF THE MOST INTENSE
RAINFALL. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE LIKELY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN A CONCERN AT
KSAV AND POSSIBLY KCHS GIVEN THE STRONG 950-975 MB WINDS NOTED IN
RAP SOUNDINGS AND KCLX VAD WIND PROFILE. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWER/TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM
OF A SQUALL LINE. FOR NOW LIMITED CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH A
MENTION FOR TSRA. LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ONCE
THE SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS ON
EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD/DENSE THE STRATUS/FOG WILL BECOME...SO
LIMITED CONDITIONS TO JUST ABOVE AIRFIELD ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AT
BOTH TERMINALS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS...AND GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A COLD FRONT PULLS FARTHER
OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS
TODAY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND A COASTAL FRONT
SHIFTS INLAND. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME GIVEN THE COLD SHELF WATERS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS
WERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S PER LATEST MODIS
SST IMAGERY. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH DEEPER MIXING PROFILES WHICH A
RISK FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES. PER COLLABORATION WITH
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WARNING WILL BE POSTED FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL BE
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-8
FT NEARSHORE WATERS...EXCEPT 6-10 FT CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
7-12 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT WITH THE AREA FIRMLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...BUT BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LINGER WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 4-8 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...HIGHEST
OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...WITH 7-9 FT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEG.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED TO END MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK AND MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT A LATER
TIME.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD RAPIDLY INTO THE 6-10 FT RANGE
TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS OFF
CHARLESTON COUNTY. SEAS AT BUOY 41004 ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 12
FT...WHICH WILL YIELD BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5-7 FT ALONG THE
LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST
FACING BEACHES. BREAKERS OF 4-5 FT ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH
GEORGIA COAST...BUT THE ORIENTATION OF THE WAVE ENERGY WITH RESPECT
TO THE COAST SUGGEST THE GREATEST RISK FOR HIGH SURF WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
BEACHES OF CHARLESTON COUNTY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.75-2 INCHES COUPLED WITH INTENSE UPPER
DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE
PERIOD. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS
FALLING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHARLESTON...BEAUFORT AND
AND SAVANNAH METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...MORE LOCALIZED/URBAN FLOODING
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961.
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942.
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 231109
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
609 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

...HEAVY RAINS WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT...
...RECORD DAILY RAINFALL LIKELY...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PULLS THE FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A POWERFUL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS TREKKING QUICKLY ACROSS
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS EVENING. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
FEATURING PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ADVECTING NORTH VIA 40-60 KT OF 850
HPA FLOW COUPLED WITH AN EXPANDING CORRIDOR OF UPPER DIFLUENCE
FORMING OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD RAINS OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGIA
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN BOTH AREA AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE COMBINATION OF ANONYMOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE AND INCREASING UPPER
DYNAMICS BECOME ALIGNED.

THE WINDOW FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THEN ARCHING BACK INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO A POSITION OFF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST MOVES NORTH. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING THE INLAND WEDGE
STEADILY BREAKING DOWN AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. IN FACT...MODEST PRESSURE FALLS
ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE CORE OF THE WEDGE...WHICH SUGGEST
WEAKENING IS ALREADY IN PROGRESS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT
AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS TO LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
PEE DEE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AFTER DROPPING SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAIN ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE. POPS NEAR 100
PERCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL AREAS TODAY...ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHING POPS DOWN INTO THE 30-50 PERCENT CATEGORY WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT
AS THE STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASSENT AND LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALL SHIFT NORTH WITH THE FRONT.

PINNING DOWN HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY INLAND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS...WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL REACH VERY LATE IN
THE DAY. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL HERE... ESPECIALLY
OVER PARTS OF ALLENDALE-JENKINS-SCREVEN COUNTIES WHERE IT IS
POSSIBLE THE WEDGE MAY NOT ERODE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THESE THREE ZONES WITH LOWER- MID 70S
ELSEWHERE. FURTHER REFINEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ONCE MESOSCALE TRENDS AND WARM FRONTAL TIMING BECOMES
MORE APPARENT.

THERE WILL BE TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...ONE
WITH THE WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE
SECOND ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS TONIGHT.
FOR TODAY...ITS A TYPICAL LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SCENARIO. SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK WITH MODIFIED SOUNDINGS ONLY
YIELDING 500-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -2 TO -4C.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS POOR...KINEMATIC PROFILES BECOME QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH AS MUCH AS 50-60 KT OF BULK
SHEAR AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES REACHING AS HIGH AS 500-700
M2/S2. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WHERE LOW- LEVEL VORTICITY AND SHERBS3 VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 UNIT
WILL BE MAXIMIZED...ALTHOUGH ANY CONVECTIVE CELL IN THE WARM
SECTOR COULD EASILY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS WITH AN IMPRESSIVE A
50-60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE. AN ARGUABLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE TSTMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT DISPLACED JUST TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE AS A POWERFUL...
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PIVOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
ALTHOUGH ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
PROGRESS AT SUNSET...MESOSCALE MODELS HINT THAT AT A SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF
A QLCS/SQUALL LINE...COULD BE APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
CORRIDOR OF INTENSE UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ITSELF AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONT. NAM12 INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES REACHING AS HIGH
AS 800-1200 J/KG WITHIN THE CORE OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH
IMPRESSIVE KINEMATIC PROFILES FEATURING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF 50-55 KT ALIGNED WITH A CORRIDOR OF SHERBS3 VALUES OF 1-1.25
UNITS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY WEAK TO MODEST AT
BEST...IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO COVER COME
THIS TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OR EVEN A STRENGTHENING OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS LINE LOOKS TO
BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TIER CLOSER TO THE WARM
FRONT. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY MODERATE AT BEST AT
THIS POINT IN TIME AND FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL BE NEED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

POPS OF OF 30-50 PERCENT WILL BE DEPICTED TONIGHT WITH GRIDDED
POPS REACHING AS HIGH AS 60-70 PERCENT ALIGNED WITH THE EXPECTED
PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. IT WILL BE BE A WARM/HUMID NIGHT
WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
DESPITE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE.
IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL
UNFOLD GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT ITS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WILL SHOW
AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...ROUGHLY TIMED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SQUALL LINE.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGING
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND
STEADY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS NEARLY PARALLEL
ORIENTATION TO THE UPPER FLOW. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE
DYNAMICS AND FORCING WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...CONVECTION
APPEARS LIMITED TO A NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG
THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WILL THUS KEEP RAIN CHANCES CAPPED IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CLOSER TO
THE COAST...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON CONSIDERING A
WARMER START TO THE DAY AND PERSISTENT SOLID SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND GIVEN THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DRIER
AIR APPROACHES IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...FALLING INTO UPPER 40S FAR
INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO PUSH EASTWARD. STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE DUE TO THE LACK OF A CLEAN FRONTAL PROGRESSION...AND
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
MEANDERING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE ZONE. BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SUGGEST THAT RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS TOWARD THE
AREA AND THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE INDICATED POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE ALL AREAS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...INCREASING TO LIKELY RAIN FOR THE
COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S AND NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS IN THE LOW 40S.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE WILL STEADILY LIFT NORTH
UP THE COAST...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. THE DAY WILL
BEGIN WITH A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN RAIN COVERAGE...WITH THE
CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA SEEING NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND THE
GEORGIA ZONES FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER SEEING
SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...AND EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE EVENING HOURS. THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...AND COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY...
DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AT THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. HEAVY RAINS HAVE REACHED KSAV AND WILL IMPACT KCHS BY
SUNRISE. PREVAILING IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING WITH THE STEADIER RAINS ENDING FROM SOUTH-NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. THE HEAVIER RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO END AT KSAV BY 16Z AND KCHS BY 19Z. UNTIL THEN...IFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES DURING POCKETS OF THE MOST INTENSE
RAINFALL. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE LIKELY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN A CONCERN AT
KSAV AND POSSIBLY KCHS GIVEN THE STRONG 950-975 MB WINDS NOTED IN
RAP SOUNDINGS AND KCLX VAD WIND PROFILE. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWER/TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM
OF A SQUALL LINE. FOR NOW LIMITED CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH A
MENTION FOR TSRA. LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ONCE
THE SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS ON
EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD/DENSE THE STRATUS/FOG WILL BECOME...SO
LIMITED CONDITIONS TO JUST ABOVE AIRFIELD ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AT
BOTH TERMINALS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS...AND GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A COLD FRONT PULLS FARTHER
OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS
TODAY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND A COASTAL FRONT
SHIFTS INLAND. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME GIVEN THE COLD SHELF WATERS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS
WERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S PER LATEST MODIS
SST IMAGERY. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH DEEPER MIXING PROFILES WHICH A
RISK FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES. PER COLLABORATION WITH
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WARNING WILL BE POSTED FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL BE
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-8
FT NEARSHORE WATERS...EXCEPT 6-10 FT CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
7-12 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT WITH THE AREA FIRMLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...BUT BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LINGER WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 4-8 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...HIGHEST
OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...WITH 7-9 FT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEG.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED TO END MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK AND MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT A LATER
TIME.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD RAPIDLY INTO THE 6-10 FT RANGE
TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS OFF
CHARLESTON COUNTY. SEAS AT BUOY 41004 ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 12
FT...WHICH WILL YIELD BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5-7 FT ALONG THE
LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST
FACING BEACHES. BREAKERS OF 4-5 FT ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH
GEORGIA COAST...BUT THE ORIENTATION OF THE WAVE ENERGY WITH RESPECT
TO THE COAST SUGGEST THE GREATEST RISK FOR HIGH SURF WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
BEACHES OF CHARLESTON COUNTY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.75-2 INCHES COUPLED WITH INTENSE UPPER
DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE
PERIOD. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS
FALLING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHARLESTON...BEAUFORT AND
AND SAVANNAH METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...MORE LOCALIZED/URBAN FLOODING
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961.
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942.
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST/WMS





000
FXUS62 KCAE 230936
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
436 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ALREADY RETURNING TO THE AREA AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GA/SC INTO NC. EXPECT PLENTY OF RAINFALL TO
OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY
AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV LOOP SHOWS STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED S/W MOVING ACROSS ERN TX
THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REGION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO TRY AND HOLD ON ALONG THE NC COAST AND RIDGE BACK
INTO THE PALMETTO STATE. MODELS LIFT THE S/W AND ASSOCIATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST BY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS AN INVERTED
TROF WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.

88D REGIONAL SHOWS A LARGE ARE OF RAIN ACROSS GA INTO SC AND
PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO NC THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE DAY AND EXPECT RAIN/SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES. PW VALUES HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND CURRENT
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS VALUES RANGING FROM 1.4 INCHES ACROSS THE CSRA
TO 0.75 INCHES ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. THESE VALUES WILL CONTINUE
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH VALUES APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/EASTERN CWA. THIS IS QUITE A BIT
HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. THIS WILL LEAD TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES AND SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES. CURRENT RAINFALL HELPING
TO SETUP WEAK WEDGE AND MAINTAIN IT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT OBS AND VWP. OBS
INDICATE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
HOWEVER...VWP SHOWS SE WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT 1K FT ABOVE THE
SURFACE. OBSERVING MODEL LI FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE WEDGE WILL
HOLD IN FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST/EAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT QUITE A GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
CWA. HAVE GONE BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EXTREME SRN CSRA
REGION. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...SURFACE
FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS BACKED OFF THE SEVERE
THREAT SLIGHTLY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE
SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE COAST AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CSRA AND EASTERN MIDLANDS. THIS APPEARS
TO BE WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES ACROSS THOSE REGIONS. THE BEST TIME FRAME
FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN
6 PM AND 11 PM. SPC WRM SHOWS A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE 6 PM TO 11 PM PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR
THE WARM FRONT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...DO NO EXPECT
MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THEY MAY RISE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THE
MID/UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO NEXT S/W DIGGING SEWD
INTO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THEM TO QUITE WARM ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY. WILL
BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER
70S. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO BE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MENTION OF SHOWERS.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z/06Z NAM IS STILL
THE FARTHEST EWD OF THE SYSTEMS BY TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE CWA
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE
TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TODAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULT IN THICKENING
AND LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR BY
12Z AGS/DNL AND CAE/CUB/OGB BY 15Z...WITH LIFR BECOMING POSSIBLE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCHS 230911
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
411 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

...HEAVY RAINS WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PULLS THE FRONT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A POWERFUL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS TREKKING QUICKLY ACROSS
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS EVENING. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
FEATURING PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ADVECTING NORTH VIA 40-60 KT OF 850
HPA FLOW COUPLED WITH AN EXPANDING CORRIDOR OF UPPER DIFLUENCE
FORMING OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD RAINS OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGIA
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN BOTH AREA AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE COMBINATION OF ANONYMOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE AND INCREASING UPPER
DYNAMICS BECOME ALIGNED.

THE WINDOW FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THEN ARCHING BACK INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO A POSITION OFF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST MOVES NORTH. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING THE INLAND WEDGE
STEADILY BREAKING DOWN AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. IN FACT...MODEST PRESSURE FALLS
ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE CORE OF THE WEDGE...WHICH SUGGEST
WEAKENING IS ALREADY IN PROGRESS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT
AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS TO LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
PEE DEE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AFTER DROPPING SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAIN ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE. POPS NEAR 100
PERCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL AREAS TODAY...ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHING POPS DOWN INTO THE 30-50 PERCENT CATEGORY WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT
AS THE STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASSENT AND LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALL SHIFT NORTH WITH THE FRONT.

PINNING DOWN HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY INLAND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS...WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL REACH VERY LATE IN
THE DAY. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL HERE... ESPECIALLY
OVER PARTS OF ALLENDALE-JENKINS-SCREVEN COUNTIES WHERE IT IS
POSSIBLE THE WEDGE MAY NOT ERODE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THESE THREE ZONES WITH LOWER- MID 70S
ELSEWHERE. FURTHER REFINEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ONCE MESOSCALE TRENDS AND WARM FRONTAL TIMING BECOMES
MORE APPARENT.

THERE WILL BE TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...ONE
WITH THE WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE
SECOND ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS TONIGHT.
FOR TODAY...ITS A TYPICAL LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SCENARIO. SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK WITH MODIFIED SOUNDINGS ONLY
YIELDING 500-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -2 TO -4C.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS POOR...KINEMATIC PROFILES BECOME QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH AS MUCH AS 50-60 KT OF BULK
SHEAR AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES REACHING AS HIGH AS 500-700
M2/S2. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WHERE LOW- LEVEL VORTICITY AND SHERBS3 VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 UNIT
WILL BE MAXIMIZED...ALTHOUGH ANY CONVECTIVE CELL IN THE WARM
SECTOR COULD EASILY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS WITH AN IMPRESSIVE A
50-60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE. AN ARGUABLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE TSTMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT DISPLACED JUST TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE AS A POWERFUL...
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PIVOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
ALTHOUGH ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
PROGRESS AT SUNSET...MESOSCALE MODELS HINT THAT AT A SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF
A QLCS OR SQUALL LINE...COULD BE APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A CORRIDOR OF INTENSE UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ITSELF AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WAKE OF
THE WARM FRONT. NAM12 INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES
REACHING AS HIGH AS 800-1200 J/KG WITHIN THE CORE OF THE WARM
SECTOR WITH IMPRESSIVE KINEMATIC PROFILES FEATURING 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 50-55 KT ALIGNED WITH A CORRIDOR OF SHERBS3 VALUES
OF 1-1.25 UNITS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY WEAK TO MODEST AT
BEST...IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO COVER COME
THIS TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OR EVEN A STRENGTHENING OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS LINE
LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TIER CLOSER TO
THE WARM FRONT. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY MODERATE
AT BEST AT THIS POINT IN TIME AND FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL BE NEED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

POPS OF OF 30-50 PERCENT WILL BE DEPICTED TONIGHT WITH GRIDDED
POPS REACHING AS HIGH AS 60-70 PERCENT ALIGNED WITH THE EXPECTED
PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. IT WILL BE BE A WARM/HUMID NIGHT
WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
DESPITE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE.
IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL
UNFOLD GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT ITS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WILL SHOW
AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...ROUGHLY TIMED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SQUALL LINE.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGING
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND
STEADY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS NEARLY PARALLEL
ORIENTATION TO THE UPPER FLOW. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE
DYNAMICS AND FORCING WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...CONVECTION
APPEARS LIMITED TO A NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG
THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WILL THUS KEEP RAIN CHANCES CAPPED IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CLOSER TO
THE COAST...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON CONSIDERING A
WARMER START TO THE DAY AND PERSISTENT SOLID SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND GIVEN THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DRIER
AIR APPROACHES IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...FALLING INTO UPPER 40S FAR
INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO PUSH EASTWARD. STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE DUE TO THE LACK OF A CLEAN FRONTAL PROGRESSION...AND
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
MEANDERING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE ZONE. BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SUGGEST THAT RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS TOWARD THE
AREA AND THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE INDICATED POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE ALL AREAS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...INCREASING TO LIKELY RAIN FOR THE
COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S AND NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS IN THE LOW 40S.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE WILL STEADILY LIFT NORTH
UP THE COAST...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. THE DAY WILL
BEGIN WITH A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN RAIN COVERAGE...WITH THE
CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA SEEING NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND THE
GEORGIA ZONES FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER SEEING
SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...AND EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE EVENING HOURS. THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...AND COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY...
DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS...CONDITIONS ARE POISED TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT THE THE
TERMINAL OVERNIGHT AS RAINS MOVING FROM THE SOUTH AND CIGS DROP
INTO MVFR THRESHOLDS. THE HIGHEST WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR 15-19Z WHEN THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS MOVES THROUGH ALONG
THE NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME. THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD TRANSLATE NORTH OF KCHS AFTER
19Z AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. SHOULD SEE VERY GUSTY WINDS
DURING THIS TIME WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AT TIMES. ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 01Z.

KSAV...RAIN AND LOWER CIGS ARE POISED TO ENCOMPASS THE TERMINAL
SHORTLY. EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS BY 09Z WITH CIGS
DROPPING TO BKN015 WITH PREVAILING 4SM -RA. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL 11-16Z AS THE NOSE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME AS 2000 FT WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KT. THE HEAVIEST
RAINS WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL BY 16Z AS THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. SHOULD SEE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP IT ITS WAKE WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AT TIMES. THE RISK FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL END AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 22Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS...AND GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A COLD FRONT PULLS FARTHER
OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS
TODAY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND A COASTAL FRONT
SHIFTS INLAND. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME GIVEN THE COLD SHELF WATERS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS
WERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S PER LATEST MODIS
SST IMAGERY. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH DEEPER MIXING PROFILES WHICH A
RISK FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES. PER COLLABORATION WITH
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WARNING WILL BE POSTED FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL BE
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-8
FT NEARSHORE WATERS...EXCEPT 6-10 FT CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
7-12 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT WITH THE AREA FIRMLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...BUT BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LINGER WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 4-8 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...HIGHEST
OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...WITH 7-9 FT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEG.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED TO END MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK AND MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT A LATER
TIME.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD RAPIDLY INTO THE 6-10 FT RANGE
TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS OFF
CHARLESTON COUNTY. SEAS AT BUOY 41004 ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 12
FT...WHICH WILL YIELD BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5-7 FT ALONG THE
LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST
FACING BEACHES. BREAKERS OF 4-5 FT ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH
GEORGIA COAST...BUT THE ORIENTATION OF THE WAVE ENERGY WITH RESPECT
TO THE COAST SUGGEST THE GREATEST RISK FOR HIGH SURF WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
BEACHES OF CHARLESTON COUNTY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.75-2 INCHES COUPLED WITH INTENSE UPPER
DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE
PERIOD. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS
FALLING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHARLESTON...BEAUFORT AND
AND SAVANNAH METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...MORE LOCALIZED/URBAN FLOODING
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961.
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942.
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$


ST/WMS





000
FXUS62 KCHS 230911
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
411 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

...HEAVY RAINS WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PULLS THE FRONT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A POWERFUL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS TREKKING QUICKLY ACROSS
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS EVENING. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
FEATURING PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ADVECTING NORTH VIA 40-60 KT OF 850
HPA FLOW COUPLED WITH AN EXPANDING CORRIDOR OF UPPER DIFLUENCE
FORMING OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD RAINS OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGIA
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN BOTH AREA AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE COMBINATION OF ANONYMOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE AND INCREASING UPPER
DYNAMICS BECOME ALIGNED.

THE WINDOW FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THEN ARCHING BACK INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO A POSITION OFF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST MOVES NORTH. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING THE INLAND WEDGE
STEADILY BREAKING DOWN AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. IN FACT...MODEST PRESSURE FALLS
ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE CORE OF THE WEDGE...WHICH SUGGEST
WEAKENING IS ALREADY IN PROGRESS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT
AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS TO LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
PEE DEE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AFTER DROPPING SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAIN ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE. POPS NEAR 100
PERCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL AREAS TODAY...ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHING POPS DOWN INTO THE 30-50 PERCENT CATEGORY WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT
AS THE STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASSENT AND LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALL SHIFT NORTH WITH THE FRONT.

PINNING DOWN HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY INLAND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS...WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL REACH VERY LATE IN
THE DAY. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL HERE... ESPECIALLY
OVER PARTS OF ALLENDALE-JENKINS-SCREVEN COUNTIES WHERE IT IS
POSSIBLE THE WEDGE MAY NOT ERODE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THESE THREE ZONES WITH LOWER- MID 70S
ELSEWHERE. FURTHER REFINEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ONCE MESOSCALE TRENDS AND WARM FRONTAL TIMING BECOMES
MORE APPARENT.

THERE WILL BE TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...ONE
WITH THE WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE
SECOND ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS TONIGHT.
FOR TODAY...ITS A TYPICAL LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SCENARIO. SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK WITH MODIFIED SOUNDINGS ONLY
YIELDING 500-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -2 TO -4C.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS POOR...KINEMATIC PROFILES BECOME QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH AS MUCH AS 50-60 KT OF BULK
SHEAR AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES REACHING AS HIGH AS 500-700
M2/S2. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WHERE LOW- LEVEL VORTICITY AND SHERBS3 VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 UNIT
WILL BE MAXIMIZED...ALTHOUGH ANY CONVECTIVE CELL IN THE WARM
SECTOR COULD EASILY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS WITH AN IMPRESSIVE A
50-60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE. AN ARGUABLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE TSTMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT DISPLACED JUST TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE AS A POWERFUL...
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PIVOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
ALTHOUGH ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
PROGRESS AT SUNSET...MESOSCALE MODELS HINT THAT AT A SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF
A QLCS OR SQUALL LINE...COULD BE APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A CORRIDOR OF INTENSE UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ITSELF AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WAKE OF
THE WARM FRONT. NAM12 INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES
REACHING AS HIGH AS 800-1200 J/KG WITHIN THE CORE OF THE WARM
SECTOR WITH IMPRESSIVE KINEMATIC PROFILES FEATURING 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 50-55 KT ALIGNED WITH A CORRIDOR OF SHERBS3 VALUES
OF 1-1.25 UNITS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY WEAK TO MODEST AT
BEST...IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO COVER COME
THIS TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OR EVEN A STRENGTHENING OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS LINE
LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TIER CLOSER TO
THE WARM FRONT. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY MODERATE
AT BEST AT THIS POINT IN TIME AND FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL BE NEED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

POPS OF OF 30-50 PERCENT WILL BE DEPICTED TONIGHT WITH GRIDDED
POPS REACHING AS HIGH AS 60-70 PERCENT ALIGNED WITH THE EXPECTED
PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. IT WILL BE BE A WARM/HUMID NIGHT
WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
DESPITE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE.
IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL
UNFOLD GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT ITS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WILL SHOW
AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...ROUGHLY TIMED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SQUALL LINE.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGING
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND
STEADY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS NEARLY PARALLEL
ORIENTATION TO THE UPPER FLOW. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE
DYNAMICS AND FORCING WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...CONVECTION
APPEARS LIMITED TO A NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG
THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WILL THUS KEEP RAIN CHANCES CAPPED IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CLOSER TO
THE COAST...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON CONSIDERING A
WARMER START TO THE DAY AND PERSISTENT SOLID SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND GIVEN THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DRIER
AIR APPROACHES IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...FALLING INTO UPPER 40S FAR
INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO PUSH EASTWARD. STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE DUE TO THE LACK OF A CLEAN FRONTAL PROGRESSION...AND
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
MEANDERING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE ZONE. BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SUGGEST THAT RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS TOWARD THE
AREA AND THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE INDICATED POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE ALL AREAS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...INCREASING TO LIKELY RAIN FOR THE
COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S AND NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS IN THE LOW 40S.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE WILL STEADILY LIFT NORTH
UP THE COAST...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. THE DAY WILL
BEGIN WITH A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN RAIN COVERAGE...WITH THE
CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA SEEING NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND THE
GEORGIA ZONES FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER SEEING
SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...AND EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE EVENING HOURS. THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...AND COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY...
DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS...CONDITIONS ARE POISED TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT THE THE
TERMINAL OVERNIGHT AS RAINS MOVING FROM THE SOUTH AND CIGS DROP
INTO MVFR THRESHOLDS. THE HIGHEST WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR 15-19Z WHEN THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS MOVES THROUGH ALONG
THE NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME. THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD TRANSLATE NORTH OF KCHS AFTER
19Z AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. SHOULD SEE VERY GUSTY WINDS
DURING THIS TIME WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AT TIMES. ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 01Z.

KSAV...RAIN AND LOWER CIGS ARE POISED TO ENCOMPASS THE TERMINAL
SHORTLY. EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS BY 09Z WITH CIGS
DROPPING TO BKN015 WITH PREVAILING 4SM -RA. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL 11-16Z AS THE NOSE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME AS 2000 FT WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KT. THE HEAVIEST
RAINS WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL BY 16Z AS THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. SHOULD SEE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP IT ITS WAKE WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AT TIMES. THE RISK FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL END AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 22Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS...AND GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A COLD FRONT PULLS FARTHER
OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS
TODAY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND A COASTAL FRONT
SHIFTS INLAND. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME GIVEN THE COLD SHELF WATERS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS
WERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S PER LATEST MODIS
SST IMAGERY. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH DEEPER MIXING PROFILES WHICH A
RISK FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES. PER COLLABORATION WITH
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WARNING WILL BE POSTED FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL BE
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-8
FT NEARSHORE WATERS...EXCEPT 6-10 FT CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
7-12 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT WITH THE AREA FIRMLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...BUT BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LINGER WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 4-8 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...HIGHEST
OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...WITH 7-9 FT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEG.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED TO END MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK AND MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT A LATER
TIME.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD RAPIDLY INTO THE 6-10 FT RANGE
TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS OFF
CHARLESTON COUNTY. SEAS AT BUOY 41004 ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 12
FT...WHICH WILL YIELD BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5-7 FT ALONG THE
LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST
FACING BEACHES. BREAKERS OF 4-5 FT ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH
GEORGIA COAST...BUT THE ORIENTATION OF THE WAVE ENERGY WITH RESPECT
TO THE COAST SUGGEST THE GREATEST RISK FOR HIGH SURF WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
BEACHES OF CHARLESTON COUNTY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.75-2 INCHES COUPLED WITH INTENSE UPPER
DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE
PERIOD. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS
FALLING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHARLESTON...BEAUFORT AND
AND SAVANNAH METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...MORE LOCALIZED/URBAN FLOODING
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961.
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942.
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$


ST/WMS




000
FXUS62 KFFC 230848
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
348 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CURRENTLY COVERING THE FORECAST
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN GULF AND BROAD DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE STRONGER
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INSTABILITY IS
LACKING AND FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY CONVECTION
OF EVEN MODERATE DEPTH WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE. VWP DATA FROM
REGIONAL RADARS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS HAVE YET TO LOWER BELOW
ABOUT 10-15KFT AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODERATE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LATER TODAY AS WELL.
BETTER FORCING LATER TODAY AS THE STRONGER WAVE LIFTS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE INSTABILITY IS BEST. NORTHERN RANGE OF
THIS THREAT WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN
LIFT. CURRENT SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS THE EXPECTED EXTENT WELL.
MAY BE A SLIGHT LULL IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD SPREAD IN ONCE AGAIN BY
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
STATE AND END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.

20


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
MOISTURE STARTS STREAMING BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE DEEPENING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. HIGHEST POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OVER EAST CENTRAL ZONES.
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AND WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOW SHOWERS FOR FAR NORTH GA
BUT THAT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE MOISTURE ACTUALLY GETS. HAVE
LEFT ANY POPS OUT AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.

41


&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO BE MVFR OR LOWER BY 08Z AND IFR OR LOWER
BY 12Z. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALSO SPREADING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 00Z WITH MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AREAWIDE AFTER 10Z.
EMBEDDED...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z. EAST WINDS 6-10KT WILL
INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH GUSTS 17-22KT AFTER 12Z...BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  52  68  40 / 100  80  20  10
ATLANTA         60  54  66  41 / 100  60  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  49  61  34 / 100  80  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    60  52  65  36 / 100  50  20  10
COLUMBUS        66  59  72  42 / 100  50  20  10
GAINESVILLE     57  52  64  40 / 100  80  20  10
MACON           66  60  73  43 / 100  70  20  10
ROME            59  52  63  36 / 100  50  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  61  54  67  38 / 100  50  20  10
VIDALIA         71  64  74  49 / 100  80  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 230848
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
348 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CURRENTLY COVERING THE FORECAST
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN GULF AND BROAD DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE STRONGER
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INSTABILITY IS
LACKING AND FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY CONVECTION
OF EVEN MODERATE DEPTH WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE. VWP DATA FROM
REGIONAL RADARS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS HAVE YET TO LOWER BELOW
ABOUT 10-15KFT AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODERATE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LATER TODAY AS WELL.
BETTER FORCING LATER TODAY AS THE STRONGER WAVE LIFTS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE INSTABILITY IS BEST. NORTHERN RANGE OF
THIS THREAT WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN
LIFT. CURRENT SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS THE EXPECTED EXTENT WELL.
MAY BE A SLIGHT LULL IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD SPREAD IN ONCE AGAIN BY
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
STATE AND END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.

20


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
MOISTURE STARTS STREAMING BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE DEEPENING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. HIGHEST POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OVER EAST CENTRAL ZONES.
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AND WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOW SHOWERS FOR FAR NORTH GA
BUT THAT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE MOISTURE ACTUALLY GETS. HAVE
LEFT ANY POPS OUT AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.

41


&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO BE MVFR OR LOWER BY 08Z AND IFR OR LOWER
BY 12Z. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALSO SPREADING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 00Z WITH MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AREAWIDE AFTER 10Z.
EMBEDDED...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z. EAST WINDS 6-10KT WILL
INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH GUSTS 17-22KT AFTER 12Z...BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  52  68  40 / 100  80  20  10
ATLANTA         60  54  66  41 / 100  60  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  49  61  34 / 100  80  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    60  52  65  36 / 100  50  20  10
COLUMBUS        66  59  72  42 / 100  50  20  10
GAINESVILLE     57  52  64  40 / 100  80  20  10
MACON           66  60  73  43 / 100  70  20  10
ROME            59  52  63  36 / 100  50  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  61  54  67  38 / 100  50  20  10
VIDALIA         71  64  74  49 / 100  80  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 230848
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
348 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CURRENTLY COVERING THE FORECAST
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN GULF AND BROAD DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE STRONGER
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INSTABILITY IS
LACKING AND FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY CONVECTION
OF EVEN MODERATE DEPTH WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE. VWP DATA FROM
REGIONAL RADARS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS HAVE YET TO LOWER BELOW
ABOUT 10-15KFT AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODERATE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LATER TODAY AS WELL.
BETTER FORCING LATER TODAY AS THE STRONGER WAVE LIFTS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE INSTABILITY IS BEST. NORTHERN RANGE OF
THIS THREAT WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN
LIFT. CURRENT SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS THE EXPECTED EXTENT WELL.
MAY BE A SLIGHT LULL IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD SPREAD IN ONCE AGAIN BY
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
STATE AND END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.

20


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
MOISTURE STARTS STREAMING BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE DEEPENING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. HIGHEST POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OVER EAST CENTRAL ZONES.
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AND WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOW SHOWERS FOR FAR NORTH GA
BUT THAT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE MOISTURE ACTUALLY GETS. HAVE
LEFT ANY POPS OUT AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.

41


&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO BE MVFR OR LOWER BY 08Z AND IFR OR LOWER
BY 12Z. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALSO SPREADING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 00Z WITH MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AREAWIDE AFTER 10Z.
EMBEDDED...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z. EAST WINDS 6-10KT WILL
INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH GUSTS 17-22KT AFTER 12Z...BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  52  68  40 / 100  80  20  10
ATLANTA         60  54  66  41 / 100  60  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  49  61  34 / 100  80  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    60  52  65  36 / 100  50  20  10
COLUMBUS        66  59  72  42 / 100  50  20  10
GAINESVILLE     57  52  64  40 / 100  80  20  10
MACON           66  60  73  43 / 100  70  20  10
ROME            59  52  63  36 / 100  50  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  61  54  67  38 / 100  50  20  10
VIDALIA         71  64  74  49 / 100  80  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 230848
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
348 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CURRENTLY COVERING THE FORECAST
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN GULF AND BROAD DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE STRONGER
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INSTABILITY IS
LACKING AND FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY CONVECTION
OF EVEN MODERATE DEPTH WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE. VWP DATA FROM
REGIONAL RADARS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS HAVE YET TO LOWER BELOW
ABOUT 10-15KFT AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODERATE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LATER TODAY AS WELL.
BETTER FORCING LATER TODAY AS THE STRONGER WAVE LIFTS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE INSTABILITY IS BEST. NORTHERN RANGE OF
THIS THREAT WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN
LIFT. CURRENT SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS THE EXPECTED EXTENT WELL.
MAY BE A SLIGHT LULL IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD SPREAD IN ONCE AGAIN BY
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
STATE AND END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.

20


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
MOISTURE STARTS STREAMING BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE DEEPENING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. HIGHEST POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OVER EAST CENTRAL ZONES.
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AND WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOW SHOWERS FOR FAR NORTH GA
BUT THAT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE MOISTURE ACTUALLY GETS. HAVE
LEFT ANY POPS OUT AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.

41


&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO BE MVFR OR LOWER BY 08Z AND IFR OR LOWER
BY 12Z. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALSO SPREADING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 00Z WITH MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AREAWIDE AFTER 10Z.
EMBEDDED...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z. EAST WINDS 6-10KT WILL
INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH GUSTS 17-22KT AFTER 12Z...BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  52  68  40 / 100  80  20  10
ATLANTA         60  54  66  41 / 100  60  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  49  61  34 / 100  80  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    60  52  65  36 / 100  50  20  10
COLUMBUS        66  59  72  42 / 100  50  20  10
GAINESVILLE     57  52  64  40 / 100  80  20  10
MACON           66  60  73  43 / 100  70  20  10
ROME            59  52  63  36 / 100  50  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  61  54  67  38 / 100  50  20  10
VIDALIA         71  64  74  49 / 100  80  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KCAE 230731
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
231 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ALREADY RETURNING TO THE AREA AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GA/SC. EXPECT PLENTY OF RAINFALL TO OCCUR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
88D REGIONAL SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
PALMETTO STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS. THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP THE VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE THAT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE HRRR MODEL
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AS THE RAIN
FILLS IN ACROSS THE STATE AND THE AIRMASS BECOMES NEARLY
SATURATED...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OUT AND BE SLOW TO MOVE
UPWARD THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TODAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULT IN THICKENING
AND LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR BY
12Z AGS/DNL AND CAE/CUB/OGB BY 15Z...WITH LIFR BECOMING POSSIBLE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 230731
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
231 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ALREADY RETURNING TO THE AREA AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GA/SC. EXPECT PLENTY OF RAINFALL TO OCCUR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
88D REGIONAL SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
PALMETTO STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS. THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP THE VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE THAT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE HRRR MODEL
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AS THE RAIN
FILLS IN ACROSS THE STATE AND THE AIRMASS BECOMES NEARLY
SATURATED...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OUT AND BE SLOW TO MOVE
UPWARD THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TODAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULT IN THICKENING
AND LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR BY
12Z AGS/DNL AND CAE/CUB/OGB BY 15Z...WITH LIFR BECOMING POSSIBLE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 230731
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
231 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ALREADY RETURNING TO THE AREA AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GA/SC. EXPECT PLENTY OF RAINFALL TO OCCUR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
88D REGIONAL SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
PALMETTO STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS. THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP THE VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE THAT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE HRRR MODEL
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AS THE RAIN
FILLS IN ACROSS THE STATE AND THE AIRMASS BECOMES NEARLY
SATURATED...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OUT AND BE SLOW TO MOVE
UPWARD THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TODAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULT IN THICKENING
AND LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR BY
12Z AGS/DNL AND CAE/CUB/OGB BY 15Z...WITH LIFR BECOMING POSSIBLE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 230731
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
231 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ALREADY RETURNING TO THE AREA AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GA/SC. EXPECT PLENTY OF RAINFALL TO OCCUR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
88D REGIONAL SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
PALMETTO STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS. THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP THE VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE THAT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE HRRR MODEL
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AS THE RAIN
FILLS IN ACROSS THE STATE AND THE AIRMASS BECOMES NEARLY
SATURATED...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OUT AND BE SLOW TO MOVE
UPWARD THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TODAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULT IN THICKENING
AND LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR BY
12Z AGS/DNL AND CAE/CUB/OGB BY 15Z...WITH LIFR BECOMING POSSIBLE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 230554
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1254 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH FURTHER OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT. VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS AND
MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...SO HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS FILLING IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN
RISE SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY
TOWARDS MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND
AROUND 40 ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TODAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULT IN THICKENING
AND LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR BY
12Z AGS/DNL AND CAE/CUB/OGB BY 15Z...WITH LIFR BECOMING POSSIBLE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 230554
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1254 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH FURTHER OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT. VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS AND
MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...SO HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS FILLING IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN
RISE SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY
TOWARDS MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND
AROUND 40 ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TODAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULT IN THICKENING
AND LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR BY
12Z AGS/DNL AND CAE/CUB/OGB BY 15Z...WITH LIFR BECOMING POSSIBLE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 230535 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1235 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014



.UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS
IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. HOURLY EDITS WERE ALSO MADE TO POP
AND WX GRIDS. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

31

&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS
SHIFTING EAST BUT STILL RIDGING IN PLACE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL SEE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT INITIALLY BUT THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH
BASICALLY A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CWA. FINALLY THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN PUSHING SOME OF THE SYSTEM
OUT OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. MUCAPE
VALUES REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH IS PRETTY DECENT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. GFS SHOWS 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME VALUES EXCEEDING 50KTS.
THE NAM MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SO IF THE NAM OR GFS
VALUES ARE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY HAVE DECENT SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-
300J/KG BUT LESS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA. LOOKING AT THE LOCAL
WRF...IT IMPLIES WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNRISE...THEN
POTENTIALLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIP...THEN MORE CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH.

BESIDES SEVERE...HYDROLOGY IS THE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM. SEE
THE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN. WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS GA. FOR SUNDAY...BIG DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. MET IS MUCH COLDER AND KEEPS AREA CLOUDY
WHILE THE MAV IS WARMER AND TRIES TO PUSH CLOUDS OUT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT THINK IT
WOULD BE LIMITED SO STAYED IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE.

11

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING RAPIDLY LEAVING A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT DRY AIR WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ENDING THE PRECIP. THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD AS
WELL AS GENERATE ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EXIT THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR
SPREADS OVER THE CWA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM.

17

HYDROLOGY...
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA WITH AROUND 2-2.5 ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE GROUND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS MUCH PRECIP. EVEN SO WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO BE MVFR OR LOWER BY 08Z AND IFR OR LOWER
BY 12Z. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALSO SPREADING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 00Z WITH MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AREAWIDE AFTER 10Z.
EMBEDDED...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z. EAST WINDS 6-10KT WILL
INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH GUSTS 17-22KT AFTER 12Z...BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  55  53  68 /  90 100  70  20
ATLANTA         46  57  54  66 /  90 100  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     40  54  47  61 /  70 100  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    44  57  51  64 /  80 100  50  10
COLUMBUS        52  65  59  70 / 100 100  40  10
GAINESVILLE     44  54  49  64 /  90 100  60  10
MACON           53  66  61  73 / 100 100  60  20
ROME            44  58  53  63 /  80 100  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  47  58  54  67 / 100 100  40  10
VIDALIA         56  71  65  75 / 100 100  80  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31



000
FXUS62 KFFC 230535 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1235 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014



.UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS
IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. HOURLY EDITS WERE ALSO MADE TO POP
AND WX GRIDS. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

31

&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS
SHIFTING EAST BUT STILL RIDGING IN PLACE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL SEE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT INITIALLY BUT THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH
BASICALLY A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CWA. FINALLY THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN PUSHING SOME OF THE SYSTEM
OUT OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. MUCAPE
VALUES REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH IS PRETTY DECENT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. GFS SHOWS 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME VALUES EXCEEDING 50KTS.
THE NAM MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SO IF THE NAM OR GFS
VALUES ARE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY HAVE DECENT SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-
300J/KG BUT LESS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA. LOOKING AT THE LOCAL
WRF...IT IMPLIES WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNRISE...THEN
POTENTIALLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIP...THEN MORE CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH.

BESIDES SEVERE...HYDROLOGY IS THE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM. SEE
THE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN. WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS GA. FOR SUNDAY...BIG DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. MET IS MUCH COLDER AND KEEPS AREA CLOUDY
WHILE THE MAV IS WARMER AND TRIES TO PUSH CLOUDS OUT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT THINK IT
WOULD BE LIMITED SO STAYED IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE.

11

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING RAPIDLY LEAVING A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT DRY AIR WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ENDING THE PRECIP. THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD AS
WELL AS GENERATE ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EXIT THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR
SPREADS OVER THE CWA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM.

17

HYDROLOGY...
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA WITH AROUND 2-2.5 ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE GROUND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS MUCH PRECIP. EVEN SO WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO BE MVFR OR LOWER BY 08Z AND IFR OR LOWER
BY 12Z. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALSO SPREADING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 00Z WITH MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AREAWIDE AFTER 10Z.
EMBEDDED...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z. EAST WINDS 6-10KT WILL
INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH GUSTS 17-22KT AFTER 12Z...BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  55  53  68 /  90 100  70  20
ATLANTA         46  57  54  66 /  90 100  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     40  54  47  61 /  70 100  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    44  57  51  64 /  80 100  50  10
COLUMBUS        52  65  59  70 / 100 100  40  10
GAINESVILLE     44  54  49  64 /  90 100  60  10
MACON           53  66  61  73 / 100 100  60  20
ROME            44  58  53  63 /  80 100  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  47  58  54  67 / 100 100  40  10
VIDALIA         56  71  65  75 / 100 100  80  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KCHS 230531
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1231 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MEANDER OFF THE SE COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOVING
AWAY AND ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS LINKED UP WITH THE SHARPENING
COASTAL FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA
COASTS. THE TEMPERATURE AT BUOY 41004 HAS TOPPED 70 DEGREES AND
CONTINUES TO RISE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PULL NORTH TO A
POSITION ROUGHLY ALONG A LUDOWICI-TYBEE ISLAND-EDISTO BEACH-CAPE
ROMAIN LINE BY SUNRISE WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEARLY STEADY TO
THE NORTH...WHILE SLOWLY RISING FOR PARTS OF COASTAL GEORGIA.
WIDESPREAD RAINS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NOSE OF A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET ARE STEADILY EXPANDING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHERN GEORGIA...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINS TO BE IN PROGRESS BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER-MID 50S ACROSS FAR
INTERIOR AREAS WITHIN THE DECAYING WEDGE TO THE LOWER-MID 60S
ALONG THE COAST AND FAR SOUTH.

FOR THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE...
* MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY POPS PER GOING RADAR AND SHORT
  TERM MODEL TRENDS. INTRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MOST
  AREAS BY SUNRISE.
* CHANGED WEATHER CHARACTER TO PERIODS OF RAIN.
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT
  STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...AN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT ADVANCES QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE TN VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGER SCALE TROUGH IN THE GREAT
PLAINS AND A 110 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET THAT DIVES INTO THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH. THIS IN TURN WILL TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS ALONG AN
INITIAL COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT DEEPENS AND HEADS
RAPIDLY EAST/NE THROUGH THE DAY TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS IT WILL DRAW A WARM FRONT STEADILY NORTH AS IT
REACHES ACROSS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND TOWARD THE SC COAST BY AROUND
15Z...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM US-17 IN SC TO I-16 IN SE GA BY
18Z...AND PROGRESSING NORTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
NIGHTFALL.

HERE ARE THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...

PRECIPITATION...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A MID
LEVEL IMPULSE THAT ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH/SW EARLY IN THE DAY...SOME
AFTERNOON HEIGHTS FALLS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE AND
APPROACHING WARM FRONT...AIDED BY SOME HINTS OF 700-500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS...PWATS NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE...ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON VARIOUS LEVELS AND A 35-45 KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS. THE
TROPOSPHERE IS FULLY SATURATED AS A RESULT AND WE HAVE CONTINUED THE
IDEA OF 100 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
BULLS-EYE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE EARLY-MID ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES...ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS FOR MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AS A PSEUDO DRY-TONGUE TRIES TO PUSH NORTH IN WAKE OF THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSING WARM FRONT. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND
THERE COULD BE AT LEAST FLASH FLOOD ADVISORIES OR PERHAPS EVEN A
COUPLE OF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS DURING THE MID-MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND HEAVY
RAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. A
GLANCE AT THE DAILY PRECIP RECORDS SUGGEST THAT KCHS HAS A GOOD SHOT
OF SETTING A NEW RECORD...AND WE COULD BE CLOSE AT KCXM AND KSAV
ALSO GIVEN MAV MOS GUIDANCE 12 HOURS QPF OF 2 INCHES OF GREATER. SEE
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

SEVERE WEATHER...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR
COASTAL WATERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE THIS TRANSITIONS ONSHORE
AND INLAND IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. DESPITE THE
NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVE FEATURE...THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL
TO THE WEST/NW AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS AWAY TO THE NW AWAY
FROM THE FROM RICH INFLUX OF MOISTURE. PLUS WE HAVE A CONSTANT FEED
OF MARITIME AIR WITH A SE SYNOPTIC FLOW THAT VEERS TO THE SOUTH
LATE. THIS ALONG WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND LOW LFC/S THERE
CERTAINLY DOES REMAIN A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN
VGP AND SHERBS3 VALUES CLOSE TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A SLIGHTLY
BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY COME CLOSER TO EVENING WHEN WE/RE
SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE FLOW VEERS FURTHER. THIS IS
DISCUSSED IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT SECTION.

TEMPS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING OF THE UPCOMING WARM
FRONT...AND FIGURE ON A FAIRLY DECENT RANGE FROM NORTH/NW TO
SOUTH/SE AND AWAY FROM THE COAST. FOR NOW WE HAVE A CONSERVATIVE
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S NORTH/NW TO LOWER 70S SOUTH/SE...BUT
THIS MAY NEED FURTHER REFINEMENTS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES AS
EVEN WARMER AIR WILL BE LURKING JUST TO THE SOUTH.

SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST REGION WILL LIE
SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT PULLS FAR TO THE
NORTH. A TAIL OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY
THROUGH IN THE EVENING TO OFF THE COAST BY 06Z. ON ITS HEELS IS A
120 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET THAT ORIENTS ITSELF EAST/NE TO WEST/SW
ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THIS POSITION
WE/RE WITHIN THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET WHICH SUGGESTS
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE RATHER THAN
DIVERGENCE/DIFLUENCE. PLUS THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF CINH THAT
DEVELOPS AND LAPSE RATES OVERALL REMAIN POOR...ESPECIALLY INT HE
LOWER LEVELS WHERE A SUBTLE INVERSION FORMS. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY
SEVERE THREAT IN CHECK...BUT A CONTINUATION OF LOW LFC LEVELS AND
HIGH SHEAR STILL SUPPORTS A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THAT MAY
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A DECAYING SQUALL LINE DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY WANE FROM SOUTH/SW TO
NORTH/NE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE EXTREME WETNESS FROM ALL
THE RAIN AND SOME INDICATIONS OF STRATUS BUILD-DOWN AND MAYBE EVEN A
LITTLE SEA FOG THROWN INTO THE MIX WE/LL SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...DESPITE THE STRONG WIND FIELDS. PROBABLY THESE WINDS
ARE TOO HIGH FOR DENSE FOG...BUT WE/LL MAINTAIN A CLOSE WEATHER
WATCH TO BE SURE. TEMPS WON/T BUDGE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE INHIBITED BY THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
FULL SATURATION THAT OCCURS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM AN INTENSE
SURFACE CYCLONE AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT SEPARATED
FROM THE PARENT SYSTEM...AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EAST/SE PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH. FRONTAL PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW AS A RESULT...LIKELY NOT
OCCURRING UNTIL THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE AMOUNT AND POSITIONING OF CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN A
DEEP BAND OF MOISTURE...LIKELY OVER OUR EASTERNMOST SECTIONS WE HAVE
MAINTAINED 30-40 POP SCHEME...GREATEST NEAR THE COASTAL CORRIDOR.
WHILE THERE CAN STILL BE SOME T-STORMS WITHIN A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ANY SEVERE RISK SEEMS CLOSE TO...IF NOT ZERO. TEMPS
WILL BE FAR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AT RECORD
LEVELS WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE PARALLEL GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAS PERFORMED WELL OF LATE AND IS
SUGGESTING THAT WE COULD FLIRT WITH THE RECORD HIGHS. THIS IS ALSO
IN LINE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FORECAST. FOR NOW WE HAVE SHOWN
UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE AND CAN ALWAYS ADJUST HIGHER LATER
IN NECESSARY. THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
AFTER SUNSET...BUT CLOUD COVER MIGHT BE SLOW IN ERODING. BUT THAT
SHOULD BE OFFSET BY MODEST COOL ADVECTION WHICH WILL EQUATE TO TEMPS
SOME 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER
NOT FAR OFF THE SE COAST...STILL STUCK WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
WITHIN A HUGE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE NATION. WHILE IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH INTO THE ATLANTIC TO KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED RAINS OFFSHORE...THE FLOW BACKS A LITTLE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT MAY PULL MOISTURE BACK A LITTLE MORE TOWARD
SHORE LATE IN THE DAY. AT PRESENT WE HAVE 20-40 POPS FROM NW TO SE.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS AND THE LACK OF
ANY WARM ADVECTION...AND SOME 15 DEGREES OR MORE COOLER THAN ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AXIS OF A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY SWEEP TOWARD THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT ENERGY HELPING TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MEANDERING OFFSHORE FRONT. THERE
REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST/NW
AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL MAKE IT. THIS WILL HAVE HUGE IMPLICATIONS
ON THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THE RESULTING LOW SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EVENTUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. A NOTABLE COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUPPRESSED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS...CONDITIONS ARE POISED TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT THE THE
TERMINAL OVERNIGHT AS RAINS MOVING FROM THE SOUTH AND CIGS DROP
INTO MVFR THRESHOLDS. THE HIGHEST WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR 15-19Z WHEN THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS MOVES THROUGH ALONG
THE NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME. THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD TRANSLATE NORTH OF KCHS AFTER
19Z AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. SHOULD SEE VERY GUSTY WINDS
DURING THIS TIME WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AT TIMES. ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 01Z.

KSAV...RAIN AND LOWER CIGS ARE POISED TO ENCOMPASS THE TERMINAL
SHORTLY. EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS BY 09Z WITH CIGS
DROPPING TO BKN015 WITH PREVAILING 4SM -RA. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL 11-16Z AS THE NOSE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME AS 2000 FT WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KT. THE HEAVIEST
RAINS WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL BY 16Z AS THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. SHOULD SEE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP IT ITS WAKE WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AT TIMES. THE RISK FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL END AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 22Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS AND GRADUALLY LOWER CEILINGS
AND POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. IT/LL ALSO BE BREEZY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH A RISK OF WIND SHEAR SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL A COLD
FRONT PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST AS THE INLAND WEDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE COASTAL FRONT EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...DESPITE LESS THAN PERFECT MIXING PROFILES IN THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN 15-20 KT
NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 20-25 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE
GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM WHERE WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES WILL
SUPPORT A BIT MORE MIXING. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 3-6 FT
IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG AND ELONGATED RIDGE OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED EAST-WEST AND NORTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE PULLING FURTHER EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS ALLOWS FOR A WARM FRONT HUNG UP TO THE
EAST OF THE COOLER SHELF WATERS SUNDAY MORNING TO GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTH/NW IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
MARINE AREA DURING THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES
ONSHORE. A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN
AS THE WARM FRONT HEADS FURTHER NORTH/NW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER FROM EAST AROUND TO THE
SE SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING AND FINALLY TO THE SW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRAVERSE THE WATERS
AND DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO LIMIT MIXING...THIS STILL
SUPPORTS SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WE HAVE TOYED WITH THE IDEA
OF A GALE WATCH...BUT GIVEN MARINE-LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN A REGIME
WHERE TEMPS OF THE WATER ARE SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE AIR
TEMPS AND GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS AT 1000 MB ARE NO MORE THAN AROUND
35 KT...THIS POSSIBILITY IS TOO LOW TO CONSIDER AT PRESENT. MAYBE
FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS AT SOME POINT GALES MIGHT BE REQUIRED SINCE
THEIR WATERS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S AND LESS IMPACTED
BY MARINE-LAYERING INFLUENCES. MARINERS SHOULD ALSO BE PREPARED FOR
STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED T-STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
MAY BE NECESSARY.

GIVEN SOME 6-8 FOOTERS WITHIN A 0-20 NM WATERS THERE COULD BE SOME
BREAKERS APPROACHING 4 OR 5 FEET AT THE BEACHES. IF THIS COMES TO
FRUITION WE MIGHT NEED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT A LATER TIMES. FOR
NOW WE/LL ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF SEA FOG GIVEN THE
WARMER AIR ACROSS THE NOTICEABLY COOLER SHELF WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE PROBABLY TOO STRONG FOR THIS...BUT GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS WE HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY
FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT
AWAY FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY HOW
THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS...ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IS
HIGHLY CERTAIN. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.75-2 INCHES COUPLED WITH
GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE PERIOD. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS
FALLING ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE/RE STILL BELOW THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE HOWEVER SINCE WE/RE 1-3 INCHES BELOW NORMAL SINCE
SEPTEMBER 1ST. SO WE/RE HESITANT TO HOIST AN AREAL FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. BUT THE RISK FOR POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE BEAUFORT AND SAVANNAH METRO
AREAS WITH THE MID MOORING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 230531
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1231 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MEANDER OFF THE SE COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOVING
AWAY AND ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS LINKED UP WITH THE SHARPENING
COASTAL FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA
COASTS. THE TEMPERATURE AT BUOY 41004 HAS TOPPED 70 DEGREES AND
CONTINUES TO RISE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PULL NORTH TO A
POSITION ROUGHLY ALONG A LUDOWICI-TYBEE ISLAND-EDISTO BEACH-CAPE
ROMAIN LINE BY SUNRISE WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEARLY STEADY TO
THE NORTH...WHILE SLOWLY RISING FOR PARTS OF COASTAL GEORGIA.
WIDESPREAD RAINS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NOSE OF A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET ARE STEADILY EXPANDING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHERN GEORGIA...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINS TO BE IN PROGRESS BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER-MID 50S ACROSS FAR
INTERIOR AREAS WITHIN THE DECAYING WEDGE TO THE LOWER-MID 60S
ALONG THE COAST AND FAR SOUTH.

FOR THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE...
* MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY POPS PER GOING RADAR AND SHORT
  TERM MODEL TRENDS. INTRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MOST
  AREAS BY SUNRISE.
* CHANGED WEATHER CHARACTER TO PERIODS OF RAIN.
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT
  STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...AN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT ADVANCES QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE TN VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGER SCALE TROUGH IN THE GREAT
PLAINS AND A 110 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET THAT DIVES INTO THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH. THIS IN TURN WILL TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS ALONG AN
INITIAL COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT DEEPENS AND HEADS
RAPIDLY EAST/NE THROUGH THE DAY TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS IT WILL DRAW A WARM FRONT STEADILY NORTH AS IT
REACHES ACROSS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND TOWARD THE SC COAST BY AROUND
15Z...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM US-17 IN SC TO I-16 IN SE GA BY
18Z...AND PROGRESSING NORTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
NIGHTFALL.

HERE ARE THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...

PRECIPITATION...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A MID
LEVEL IMPULSE THAT ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH/SW EARLY IN THE DAY...SOME
AFTERNOON HEIGHTS FALLS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE AND
APPROACHING WARM FRONT...AIDED BY SOME HINTS OF 700-500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS...PWATS NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE...ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON VARIOUS LEVELS AND A 35-45 KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS. THE
TROPOSPHERE IS FULLY SATURATED AS A RESULT AND WE HAVE CONTINUED THE
IDEA OF 100 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
BULLS-EYE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE EARLY-MID ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES...ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS FOR MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AS A PSEUDO DRY-TONGUE TRIES TO PUSH NORTH IN WAKE OF THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSING WARM FRONT. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND
THERE COULD BE AT LEAST FLASH FLOOD ADVISORIES OR PERHAPS EVEN A
COUPLE OF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS DURING THE MID-MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND HEAVY
RAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. A
GLANCE AT THE DAILY PRECIP RECORDS SUGGEST THAT KCHS HAS A GOOD SHOT
OF SETTING A NEW RECORD...AND WE COULD BE CLOSE AT KCXM AND KSAV
ALSO GIVEN MAV MOS GUIDANCE 12 HOURS QPF OF 2 INCHES OF GREATER. SEE
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

SEVERE WEATHER...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR
COASTAL WATERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE THIS TRANSITIONS ONSHORE
AND INLAND IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. DESPITE THE
NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVE FEATURE...THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL
TO THE WEST/NW AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS AWAY TO THE NW AWAY
FROM THE FROM RICH INFLUX OF MOISTURE. PLUS WE HAVE A CONSTANT FEED
OF MARITIME AIR WITH A SE SYNOPTIC FLOW THAT VEERS TO THE SOUTH
LATE. THIS ALONG WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND LOW LFC/S THERE
CERTAINLY DOES REMAIN A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN
VGP AND SHERBS3 VALUES CLOSE TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A SLIGHTLY
BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY COME CLOSER TO EVENING WHEN WE/RE
SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE FLOW VEERS FURTHER. THIS IS
DISCUSSED IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT SECTION.

TEMPS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING OF THE UPCOMING WARM
FRONT...AND FIGURE ON A FAIRLY DECENT RANGE FROM NORTH/NW TO
SOUTH/SE AND AWAY FROM THE COAST. FOR NOW WE HAVE A CONSERVATIVE
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S NORTH/NW TO LOWER 70S SOUTH/SE...BUT
THIS MAY NEED FURTHER REFINEMENTS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES AS
EVEN WARMER AIR WILL BE LURKING JUST TO THE SOUTH.

SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST REGION WILL LIE
SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT PULLS FAR TO THE
NORTH. A TAIL OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY
THROUGH IN THE EVENING TO OFF THE COAST BY 06Z. ON ITS HEELS IS A
120 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET THAT ORIENTS ITSELF EAST/NE TO WEST/SW
ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THIS POSITION
WE/RE WITHIN THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET WHICH SUGGESTS
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE RATHER THAN
DIVERGENCE/DIFLUENCE. PLUS THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF CINH THAT
DEVELOPS AND LAPSE RATES OVERALL REMAIN POOR...ESPECIALLY INT HE
LOWER LEVELS WHERE A SUBTLE INVERSION FORMS. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY
SEVERE THREAT IN CHECK...BUT A CONTINUATION OF LOW LFC LEVELS AND
HIGH SHEAR STILL SUPPORTS A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THAT MAY
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A DECAYING SQUALL LINE DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY WANE FROM SOUTH/SW TO
NORTH/NE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE EXTREME WETNESS FROM ALL
THE RAIN AND SOME INDICATIONS OF STRATUS BUILD-DOWN AND MAYBE EVEN A
LITTLE SEA FOG THROWN INTO THE MIX WE/LL SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...DESPITE THE STRONG WIND FIELDS. PROBABLY THESE WINDS
ARE TOO HIGH FOR DENSE FOG...BUT WE/LL MAINTAIN A CLOSE WEATHER
WATCH TO BE SURE. TEMPS WON/T BUDGE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE INHIBITED BY THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
FULL SATURATION THAT OCCURS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM AN INTENSE
SURFACE CYCLONE AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT SEPARATED
FROM THE PARENT SYSTEM...AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EAST/SE PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH. FRONTAL PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW AS A RESULT...LIKELY NOT
OCCURRING UNTIL THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE AMOUNT AND POSITIONING OF CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN A
DEEP BAND OF MOISTURE...LIKELY OVER OUR EASTERNMOST SECTIONS WE HAVE
MAINTAINED 30-40 POP SCHEME...GREATEST NEAR THE COASTAL CORRIDOR.
WHILE THERE CAN STILL BE SOME T-STORMS WITHIN A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ANY SEVERE RISK SEEMS CLOSE TO...IF NOT ZERO. TEMPS
WILL BE FAR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AT RECORD
LEVELS WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE PARALLEL GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAS PERFORMED WELL OF LATE AND IS
SUGGESTING THAT WE COULD FLIRT WITH THE RECORD HIGHS. THIS IS ALSO
IN LINE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FORECAST. FOR NOW WE HAVE SHOWN
UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE AND CAN ALWAYS ADJUST HIGHER LATER
IN NECESSARY. THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
AFTER SUNSET...BUT CLOUD COVER MIGHT BE SLOW IN ERODING. BUT THAT
SHOULD BE OFFSET BY MODEST COOL ADVECTION WHICH WILL EQUATE TO TEMPS
SOME 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER
NOT FAR OFF THE SE COAST...STILL STUCK WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
WITHIN A HUGE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE NATION. WHILE IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH INTO THE ATLANTIC TO KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED RAINS OFFSHORE...THE FLOW BACKS A LITTLE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT MAY PULL MOISTURE BACK A LITTLE MORE TOWARD
SHORE LATE IN THE DAY. AT PRESENT WE HAVE 20-40 POPS FROM NW TO SE.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS AND THE LACK OF
ANY WARM ADVECTION...AND SOME 15 DEGREES OR MORE COOLER THAN ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AXIS OF A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY SWEEP TOWARD THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT ENERGY HELPING TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MEANDERING OFFSHORE FRONT. THERE
REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST/NW
AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL MAKE IT. THIS WILL HAVE HUGE IMPLICATIONS
ON THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THE RESULTING LOW SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EVENTUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. A NOTABLE COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUPPRESSED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS...CONDITIONS ARE POISED TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT THE THE
TERMINAL OVERNIGHT AS RAINS MOVING FROM THE SOUTH AND CIGS DROP
INTO MVFR THRESHOLDS. THE HIGHEST WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR 15-19Z WHEN THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS MOVES THROUGH ALONG
THE NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME. THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD TRANSLATE NORTH OF KCHS AFTER
19Z AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. SHOULD SEE VERY GUSTY WINDS
DURING THIS TIME WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AT TIMES. ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 01Z.

KSAV...RAIN AND LOWER CIGS ARE POISED TO ENCOMPASS THE TERMINAL
SHORTLY. EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS BY 09Z WITH CIGS
DROPPING TO BKN015 WITH PREVAILING 4SM -RA. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL 11-16Z AS THE NOSE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME AS 2000 FT WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KT. THE HEAVIEST
RAINS WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL BY 16Z AS THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. SHOULD SEE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP IT ITS WAKE WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AT TIMES. THE RISK FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL END AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 22Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS AND GRADUALLY LOWER CEILINGS
AND POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. IT/LL ALSO BE BREEZY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH A RISK OF WIND SHEAR SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL A COLD
FRONT PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST AS THE INLAND WEDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE COASTAL FRONT EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...DESPITE LESS THAN PERFECT MIXING PROFILES IN THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN 15-20 KT
NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 20-25 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE
GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM WHERE WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES WILL
SUPPORT A BIT MORE MIXING. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 3-6 FT
IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG AND ELONGATED RIDGE OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED EAST-WEST AND NORTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE PULLING FURTHER EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS ALLOWS FOR A WARM FRONT HUNG UP TO THE
EAST OF THE COOLER SHELF WATERS SUNDAY MORNING TO GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTH/NW IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
MARINE AREA DURING THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES
ONSHORE. A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN
AS THE WARM FRONT HEADS FURTHER NORTH/NW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER FROM EAST AROUND TO THE
SE SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING AND FINALLY TO THE SW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRAVERSE THE WATERS
AND DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO LIMIT MIXING...THIS STILL
SUPPORTS SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WE HAVE TOYED WITH THE IDEA
OF A GALE WATCH...BUT GIVEN MARINE-LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN A REGIME
WHERE TEMPS OF THE WATER ARE SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE AIR
TEMPS AND GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS AT 1000 MB ARE NO MORE THAN AROUND
35 KT...THIS POSSIBILITY IS TOO LOW TO CONSIDER AT PRESENT. MAYBE
FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS AT SOME POINT GALES MIGHT BE REQUIRED SINCE
THEIR WATERS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S AND LESS IMPACTED
BY MARINE-LAYERING INFLUENCES. MARINERS SHOULD ALSO BE PREPARED FOR
STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED T-STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
MAY BE NECESSARY.

GIVEN SOME 6-8 FOOTERS WITHIN A 0-20 NM WATERS THERE COULD BE SOME
BREAKERS APPROACHING 4 OR 5 FEET AT THE BEACHES. IF THIS COMES TO
FRUITION WE MIGHT NEED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT A LATER TIMES. FOR
NOW WE/LL ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF SEA FOG GIVEN THE
WARMER AIR ACROSS THE NOTICEABLY COOLER SHELF WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE PROBABLY TOO STRONG FOR THIS...BUT GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS WE HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY
FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT
AWAY FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY HOW
THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS...ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IS
HIGHLY CERTAIN. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.75-2 INCHES COUPLED WITH
GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE PERIOD. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS
FALLING ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE/RE STILL BELOW THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE HOWEVER SINCE WE/RE 1-3 INCHES BELOW NORMAL SINCE
SEPTEMBER 1ST. SO WE/RE HESITANT TO HOIST AN AREAL FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. BUT THE RISK FOR POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE BEAUFORT AND SAVANNAH METRO
AREAS WITH THE MID MOORING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KFFC 230341
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1041 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014



.UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS
IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. HOURLY EDITS WERE ALSO MADE TO POP
AND WX GRIDS. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

31

&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS
SHIFTING EAST BUT STILL RIDGING IN PLACE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL SEE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT INITIALLY BUT THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH
BASICALLY A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CWA. FINALLY THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN PUSHING SOME OF THE SYSTEM
OUT OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. MUCAPE
VALUES REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH IS PRETTY DECENT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. GFS SHOWS 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME VALUES EXCEEDING 50KTS.
THE NAM MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SO IF THE NAM OR GFS
VALUES ARE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY HAVE DECENT SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-
300J/KG BUT LESS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA. LOOKING AT THE LOCAL
WRF...IT IMPLIES WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNRISE...THEN
POTENTIALLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIP...THEN MORE CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH.

BESIDES SEVERE...HYDROLOGY IS THE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM. SEE
THE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN. WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS GA. FOR SUNDAY...BIG DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. MET IS MUCH COLDER AND KEEPS AREA CLOUDY
WHILE THE MAV IS WARMER AND TRIES TO PUSH CLOUDS OUT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT THINK IT
WOULD BE LIMITED SO STAYED IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE.

11

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING RAPIDLY LEAVING A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT DRY AIR WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ENDING THE PRECIP. THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD AS
WELL AS GENERATE ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EXIT THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR
SPREADS OVER THE CWA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM.

17

HYDROLOGY...
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA WITH AROUND 2-2.5 ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE GROUND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS MUCH PRECIP. EVEN SO WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALREADY ACROSS CSG AND MCN THIS EVENING.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DEGRADE AS THE RAIN AND MOISTURE
PUSHES NORTHWARD...AND ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE IFR BY
06-08Z. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. TS POTENTIAL HIGHEST ACROSS MCN AND CSG
AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE ATL AREA TAFS AT THIS TIME. EAST
WINDS WILL BE 08-12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...THEN SHIFT TO THE SE
SUNDAY EVENING THEN SW SUNDAY NIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  55  53  68 /  90 100  70  20
ATLANTA         46  57  54  66 /  90 100  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     40  54  47  61 /  70 100  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    44  57  51  64 /  80 100  50  10
COLUMBUS        52  65  59  70 / 100 100  40  10
GAINESVILLE     44  54  49  64 /  90 100  60  10
MACON           53  66  61  73 / 100 100  60  20
ROME            44  58  53  63 /  80 100  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  47  58  54  67 / 100 100  40  10
VIDALIA         56  71  65  75 / 100 100  80  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 230341
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1041 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014



.UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS
IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. HOURLY EDITS WERE ALSO MADE TO POP
AND WX GRIDS. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

31

&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS
SHIFTING EAST BUT STILL RIDGING IN PLACE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL SEE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT INITIALLY BUT THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH
BASICALLY A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CWA. FINALLY THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN PUSHING SOME OF THE SYSTEM
OUT OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. MUCAPE
VALUES REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH IS PRETTY DECENT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. GFS SHOWS 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME VALUES EXCEEDING 50KTS.
THE NAM MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SO IF THE NAM OR GFS
VALUES ARE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY HAVE DECENT SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-
300J/KG BUT LESS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA. LOOKING AT THE LOCAL
WRF...IT IMPLIES WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNRISE...THEN
POTENTIALLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIP...THEN MORE CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH.

BESIDES SEVERE...HYDROLOGY IS THE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM. SEE
THE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN. WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS GA. FOR SUNDAY...BIG DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. MET IS MUCH COLDER AND KEEPS AREA CLOUDY
WHILE THE MAV IS WARMER AND TRIES TO PUSH CLOUDS OUT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT THINK IT
WOULD BE LIMITED SO STAYED IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE.

11

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING RAPIDLY LEAVING A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT DRY AIR WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ENDING THE PRECIP. THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD AS
WELL AS GENERATE ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EXIT THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR
SPREADS OVER THE CWA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM.

17

HYDROLOGY...
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA WITH AROUND 2-2.5 ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE GROUND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS MUCH PRECIP. EVEN SO WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALREADY ACROSS CSG AND MCN THIS EVENING.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DEGRADE AS THE RAIN AND MOISTURE
PUSHES NORTHWARD...AND ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE IFR BY
06-08Z. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. TS POTENTIAL HIGHEST ACROSS MCN AND CSG
AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE ATL AREA TAFS AT THIS TIME. EAST
WINDS WILL BE 08-12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...THEN SHIFT TO THE SE
SUNDAY EVENING THEN SW SUNDAY NIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  55  53  68 /  90 100  70  20
ATLANTA         46  57  54  66 /  90 100  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     40  54  47  61 /  70 100  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    44  57  51  64 /  80 100  50  10
COLUMBUS        52  65  59  70 / 100 100  40  10
GAINESVILLE     44  54  49  64 /  90 100  60  10
MACON           53  66  61  73 / 100 100  60  20
ROME            44  58  53  63 /  80 100  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  47  58  54  67 / 100 100  40  10
VIDALIA         56  71  65  75 / 100 100  80  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 230341
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1041 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014



.UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS
IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. HOURLY EDITS WERE ALSO MADE TO POP
AND WX GRIDS. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

31

&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS
SHIFTING EAST BUT STILL RIDGING IN PLACE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL SEE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT INITIALLY BUT THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH
BASICALLY A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CWA. FINALLY THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN PUSHING SOME OF THE SYSTEM
OUT OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. MUCAPE
VALUES REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH IS PRETTY DECENT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. GFS SHOWS 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME VALUES EXCEEDING 50KTS.
THE NAM MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SO IF THE NAM OR GFS
VALUES ARE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY HAVE DECENT SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-
300J/KG BUT LESS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA. LOOKING AT THE LOCAL
WRF...IT IMPLIES WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNRISE...THEN
POTENTIALLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIP...THEN MORE CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH.

BESIDES SEVERE...HYDROLOGY IS THE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM. SEE
THE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN. WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS GA. FOR SUNDAY...BIG DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. MET IS MUCH COLDER AND KEEPS AREA CLOUDY
WHILE THE MAV IS WARMER AND TRIES TO PUSH CLOUDS OUT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT THINK IT
WOULD BE LIMITED SO STAYED IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE.

11

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING RAPIDLY LEAVING A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT DRY AIR WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ENDING THE PRECIP. THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD AS
WELL AS GENERATE ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EXIT THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR
SPREADS OVER THE CWA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM.

17

HYDROLOGY...
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA WITH AROUND 2-2.5 ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE GROUND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS MUCH PRECIP. EVEN SO WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALREADY ACROSS CSG AND MCN THIS EVENING.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DEGRADE AS THE RAIN AND MOISTURE
PUSHES NORTHWARD...AND ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE IFR BY
06-08Z. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. TS POTENTIAL HIGHEST ACROSS MCN AND CSG
AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE ATL AREA TAFS AT THIS TIME. EAST
WINDS WILL BE 08-12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...THEN SHIFT TO THE SE
SUNDAY EVENING THEN SW SUNDAY NIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  55  53  68 /  90 100  70  20
ATLANTA         46  57  54  66 /  90 100  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     40  54  47  61 /  70 100  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    44  57  51  64 /  80 100  50  10
COLUMBUS        52  65  59  70 / 100 100  40  10
GAINESVILLE     44  54  49  64 /  90 100  60  10
MACON           53  66  61  73 / 100 100  60  20
ROME            44  58  53  63 /  80 100  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  47  58  54  67 / 100 100  40  10
VIDALIA         56  71  65  75 / 100 100  80  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 230341
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1041 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014



.UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS
IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. HOURLY EDITS WERE ALSO MADE TO POP
AND WX GRIDS. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

31

&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS
SHIFTING EAST BUT STILL RIDGING IN PLACE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL SEE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT INITIALLY BUT THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH
BASICALLY A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CWA. FINALLY THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN PUSHING SOME OF THE SYSTEM
OUT OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. MUCAPE
VALUES REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH IS PRETTY DECENT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. GFS SHOWS 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME VALUES EXCEEDING 50KTS.
THE NAM MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SO IF THE NAM OR GFS
VALUES ARE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY HAVE DECENT SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-
300J/KG BUT LESS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA. LOOKING AT THE LOCAL
WRF...IT IMPLIES WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNRISE...THEN
POTENTIALLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIP...THEN MORE CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH.

BESIDES SEVERE...HYDROLOGY IS THE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM. SEE
THE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN. WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS GA. FOR SUNDAY...BIG DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. MET IS MUCH COLDER AND KEEPS AREA CLOUDY
WHILE THE MAV IS WARMER AND TRIES TO PUSH CLOUDS OUT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT THINK IT
WOULD BE LIMITED SO STAYED IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE.

11

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING RAPIDLY LEAVING A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT DRY AIR WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ENDING THE PRECIP. THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD AS
WELL AS GENERATE ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EXIT THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR
SPREADS OVER THE CWA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM.

17

HYDROLOGY...
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA WITH AROUND 2-2.5 ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE GROUND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS MUCH PRECIP. EVEN SO WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALREADY ACROSS CSG AND MCN THIS EVENING.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DEGRADE AS THE RAIN AND MOISTURE
PUSHES NORTHWARD...AND ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE IFR BY
06-08Z. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. TS POTENTIAL HIGHEST ACROSS MCN AND CSG
AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE ATL AREA TAFS AT THIS TIME. EAST
WINDS WILL BE 08-12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...THEN SHIFT TO THE SE
SUNDAY EVENING THEN SW SUNDAY NIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  55  53  68 /  90 100  70  20
ATLANTA         46  57  54  66 /  90 100  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     40  54  47  61 /  70 100  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    44  57  51  64 /  80 100  50  10
COLUMBUS        52  65  59  70 / 100 100  40  10
GAINESVILLE     44  54  49  64 /  90 100  60  10
MACON           53  66  61  73 / 100 100  60  20
ROME            44  58  53  63 /  80 100  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  47  58  54  67 / 100 100  40  10
VIDALIA         56  71  65  75 / 100 100  80  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 230341
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1041 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014



.UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS
IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. HOURLY EDITS WERE ALSO MADE TO POP
AND WX GRIDS. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

31

&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS
SHIFTING EAST BUT STILL RIDGING IN PLACE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL SEE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT INITIALLY BUT THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH
BASICALLY A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CWA. FINALLY THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN PUSHING SOME OF THE SYSTEM
OUT OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. MUCAPE
VALUES REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH IS PRETTY DECENT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. GFS SHOWS 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME VALUES EXCEEDING 50KTS.
THE NAM MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SO IF THE NAM OR GFS
VALUES ARE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY HAVE DECENT SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-
300J/KG BUT LESS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA. LOOKING AT THE LOCAL
WRF...IT IMPLIES WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNRISE...THEN
POTENTIALLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIP...THEN MORE CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH.

BESIDES SEVERE...HYDROLOGY IS THE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM. SEE
THE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN. WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS GA. FOR SUNDAY...BIG DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. MET IS MUCH COLDER AND KEEPS AREA CLOUDY
WHILE THE MAV IS WARMER AND TRIES TO PUSH CLOUDS OUT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT THINK IT
WOULD BE LIMITED SO STAYED IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE.

11

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING RAPIDLY LEAVING A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT DRY AIR WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ENDING THE PRECIP. THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD AS
WELL AS GENERATE ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EXIT THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR
SPREADS OVER THE CWA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM.

17

HYDROLOGY...
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA WITH AROUND 2-2.5 ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE GROUND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS MUCH PRECIP. EVEN SO WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALREADY ACROSS CSG AND MCN THIS EVENING.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DEGRADE AS THE RAIN AND MOISTURE
PUSHES NORTHWARD...AND ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE IFR BY
06-08Z. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. TS POTENTIAL HIGHEST ACROSS MCN AND CSG
AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE ATL AREA TAFS AT THIS TIME. EAST
WINDS WILL BE 08-12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...THEN SHIFT TO THE SE
SUNDAY EVENING THEN SW SUNDAY NIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  55  53  68 /  90 100  70  20
ATLANTA         46  57  54  66 /  90 100  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     40  54  47  61 /  70 100  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    44  57  51  64 /  80 100  50  10
COLUMBUS        52  65  59  70 / 100 100  40  10
GAINESVILLE     44  54  49  64 /  90 100  60  10
MACON           53  66  61  73 / 100 100  60  20
ROME            44  58  53  63 /  80 100  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  47  58  54  67 / 100 100  40  10
VIDALIA         56  71  65  75 / 100 100  80  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KCAE 230336
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1036 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH FURTHER OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT. VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS AND
MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...SO HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS FILLING IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN
RISE SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY
TOWARDS MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND
AROUND 40 ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS PUSHING INTO THE REGION BY 12Z.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM
THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACHING WARM
FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL FOG IN THE EAST... WITH
THE LARGEST IMPACT ON OGB. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS STILL LOW HOWEVER THERE SEEMS TO BE AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS THAT FOG WILL FORM AROUND 06Z AND POSSIBLY SPREAD INTO THE
COLUMBIA AREA BY 09Z.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK
SURFACE WEDGE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN INTO
MVFR/IFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. RAINFALL WILL AID IN DETERIORATING
THE CONDITIONS EVEN MORE TOWARDS MORNING...WITH LIFR BECOMING
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AT ALL SITES. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS TO FORM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 230336
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1036 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH FURTHER OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT. VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS AND
MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...SO HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS FILLING IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN
RISE SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY
TOWARDS MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND
AROUND 40 ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS PUSHING INTO THE REGION BY 12Z.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM
THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACHING WARM
FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL FOG IN THE EAST... WITH
THE LARGEST IMPACT ON OGB. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS STILL LOW HOWEVER THERE SEEMS TO BE AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS THAT FOG WILL FORM AROUND 06Z AND POSSIBLY SPREAD INTO THE
COLUMBIA AREA BY 09Z.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK
SURFACE WEDGE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN INTO
MVFR/IFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. RAINFALL WILL AID IN DETERIORATING
THE CONDITIONS EVEN MORE TOWARDS MORNING...WITH LIFR BECOMING
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AT ALL SITES. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS TO FORM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 230336
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1036 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH FURTHER OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT. VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS AND
MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...SO HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS FILLING IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN
RISE SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY
TOWARDS MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND
AROUND 40 ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS PUSHING INTO THE REGION BY 12Z.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM
THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACHING WARM
FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL FOG IN THE EAST... WITH
THE LARGEST IMPACT ON OGB. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS STILL LOW HOWEVER THERE SEEMS TO BE AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS THAT FOG WILL FORM AROUND 06Z AND POSSIBLY SPREAD INTO THE
COLUMBIA AREA BY 09Z.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK
SURFACE WEDGE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN INTO
MVFR/IFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. RAINFALL WILL AID IN DETERIORATING
THE CONDITIONS EVEN MORE TOWARDS MORNING...WITH LIFR BECOMING
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AT ALL SITES. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS TO FORM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 230336
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1036 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH FURTHER OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT. VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS AND
MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...SO HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS FILLING IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN
RISE SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY
TOWARDS MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND
AROUND 40 ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS PUSHING INTO THE REGION BY 12Z.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM
THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACHING WARM
FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL FOG IN THE EAST... WITH
THE LARGEST IMPACT ON OGB. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS STILL LOW HOWEVER THERE SEEMS TO BE AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS THAT FOG WILL FORM AROUND 06Z AND POSSIBLY SPREAD INTO THE
COLUMBIA AREA BY 09Z.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK
SURFACE WEDGE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN INTO
MVFR/IFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. RAINFALL WILL AID IN DETERIORATING
THE CONDITIONS EVEN MORE TOWARDS MORNING...WITH LIFR BECOMING
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AT ALL SITES. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS TO FORM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 230336
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1036 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH FURTHER OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT. VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS AND
MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...SO HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS FILLING IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN
RISE SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY
TOWARDS MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND
AROUND 40 ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS PUSHING INTO THE REGION BY 12Z.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM
THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACHING WARM
FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL FOG IN THE EAST... WITH
THE LARGEST IMPACT ON OGB. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS STILL LOW HOWEVER THERE SEEMS TO BE AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS THAT FOG WILL FORM AROUND 06Z AND POSSIBLY SPREAD INTO THE
COLUMBIA AREA BY 09Z.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK
SURFACE WEDGE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN INTO
MVFR/IFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. RAINFALL WILL AID IN DETERIORATING
THE CONDITIONS EVEN MORE TOWARDS MORNING...WITH LIFR BECOMING
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AT ALL SITES. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS TO FORM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 230336
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1036 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH FURTHER OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT. VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS AND
MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...SO HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS FILLING IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN
RISE SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY
TOWARDS MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND
AROUND 40 ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS PUSHING INTO THE REGION BY 12Z.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM
THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACHING WARM
FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL FOG IN THE EAST... WITH
THE LARGEST IMPACT ON OGB. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS STILL LOW HOWEVER THERE SEEMS TO BE AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS THAT FOG WILL FORM AROUND 06Z AND POSSIBLY SPREAD INTO THE
COLUMBIA AREA BY 09Z.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK
SURFACE WEDGE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN INTO
MVFR/IFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. RAINFALL WILL AID IN DETERIORATING
THE CONDITIONS EVEN MORE TOWARDS MORNING...WITH LIFR BECOMING
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AT ALL SITES. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS TO FORM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 230246
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
946 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MEANDER OFF THE SE COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOVING
AWAY AND ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT RAINS/SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING BUT ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR WITH MOST OF THE LIGHT
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING THROUGH 02Z. THIS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT STRENGTHENS ATOP A COASTAL
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND A WEDGE AIR MASS INLAND. HEAVIER RAINS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING
AND LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RAINS EXPANDING ACROSS
GEORGIA OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS A LARGE PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
LATE NIGHT. OUR FORECAST POP SCHEME IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY INITIAL
TWEAKS IN THE FIRST 3 HOURS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS MANY AREAS
WILL BE SLOW TO FALL ANY MORE WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND MOST
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA SHOULD SEE
RELATIVELY STEADY OVERNIGHT READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...AN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT ADVANCES QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE TN VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGER SCALE TROUGH IN THE GREAT
PLAINS AND A 110 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET THAT DIVES INTO THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH. THIS IN TURN WILL TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS ALONG AN
INITIAL COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT DEEPENS AND HEADS
RAPIDLY EAST/NE THROUGH THE DAY TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS IT WILL DRAW A WARM FRONT STEADILY NORTH AS IT
REACHES ACROSS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND TOWARD THE SC COAST BY AROUND
15Z...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM US-17 IN SC TO I-16 IN SE GA BY
18Z...AND PROGRESSING NORTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
NIGHTFALL.

HERE ARE THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...

PRECIPITATION...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A MID
LEVEL IMPULSE THAT ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH/SW EARLY IN THE DAY...SOME
AFTERNOON HEIGHTS FALLS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE AND
APPROACHING WARM FRONT...AIDED BY SOME HINTS OF 700-500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS...PWATS NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE...ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON VARIOUS LEVELS AND A 35-45 KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS. THE
TROPOSPHERE IS FULLY SATURATED AS A RESULT AND WE HAVE CONTINUED THE
IDEA OF 100 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
BULLS-EYE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE EARLY-MID ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES...ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS FOR MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AS A PSEUDO DRY-TONGUE TRIES TO PUSH NORTH IN WAKE OF THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSING WARM FRONT. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND
THERE COULD BE AT LEAST FLASH FLOOD ADVISORIES OR PERHAPS EVEN A
COUPLE OF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS DURING THE MID-MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND HEAVY
RAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. A
GLANCE AT THE DAILY PRECIP RECORDS SUGGEST THAT KCHS HAS A GOOD SHOT
OF SETTING A NEW RECORD...AND WE COULD BE CLOSE AT KCXM AND KSAV
ALSO GIVEN MAV MOS GUIDANCE 12 HOURS QPF OF 2 INCHES OF GREATER. SEE
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

SEVERE WEATHER...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR
COASTAL WATERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE THIS TRANSITIONS ONSHORE
AND INLAND IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. DESPITE THE
NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVE FEATURE...THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL
TO THE WEST/NW AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS AWAY TO THE NW AWAY
FROM THE FROM RICH INFLUX OF MOISTURE. PLUS WE HAVE A CONSTANT FEED
OF MARITIME AIR WITH A SE SYNOPTIC FLOW THAT VEERS TO THE SOUTH
LATE. THIS ALONG WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND LOW LFC/S THERE
CERTAINLY DOES REMAIN A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN
VGP AND SHERBS3 VALUES CLOSE TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A SLIGHTLY
BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY COME CLOSER TO EVENING WHEN WE/RE
SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE FLOW VEERS FURTHER. THIS IS
DISCUSSED IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT SECTION.

TEMPS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING OF THE UPCOMING WARM
FRONT...AND FIGURE ON A FAIRLY DECENT RANGE FROM NORTH/NW TO
SOUTH/SE AND AWAY FROM THE COAST. FOR NOW WE HAVE A CONSERVATIVE
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S NORTH/NW TO LOWER 70S SOUTH/SE...BUT
THIS MAY NEED FURTHER REFINEMENTS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES AS
EVEN WARMER AIR WILL BE LURKING JUST TO THE SOUTH.

SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST REGION WILL LIE
SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT PULLS FAR TO THE
NORTH. A TAIL OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY
THROUGH IN THE EVENING TO OFF THE COAST BY 06Z. ON ITS HEELS IS A
120 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET THAT ORIENTS ITSELF EAST/NE TO WEST/SW
ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THIS POSITION
WE/RE WITHIN THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET WHICH SUGGESTS
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE RATHER THAN
DIVERGENCE/DIFLUENCE. PLUS THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF CINH THAT
DEVELOPS AND LAPSE RATES OVERALL REMAIN POOR...ESPECIALLY INT HE
LOWER LEVELS WHERE A SUBTLE INVERSION FORMS. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY
SEVERE THREAT IN CHECK...BUT A CONTINUATION OF LOW LFC LEVELS AND
HIGH SHEAR STILL SUPPORTS A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THAT MAY
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A DECAYING SQUALL LINE DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY WANE FROM SOUTH/SW TO
NORTH/NE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE EXTREME WETNESS FROM ALL
THE RAIN AND SOME INDICATIONS OF STRATUS BUILD-DOWN AND MAYBE EVEN A
LITTLE SEA FOG THROWN INTO THE MIX WE/LL SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...DESPITE THE STRONG WIND FIELDS. PROBABLY THESE WINDS
ARE TOO HIGH FOR DENSE FOG...BUT WE/LL MAINTAIN A CLOSE WEATHER
WATCH TO BE SURE. TEMPS WON/T BUDGE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE INHIBITED BY THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
FULL SATURATION THAT OCCURS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM AN INTENSE
SURFACE CYCLONE AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT SEPARATED
FROM THE PARENT SYSTEM...AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EAST/SE PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH. FRONTAL PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW AS A RESULT...LIKELY NOT
OCCURRING UNTIL THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE AMOUNT AND POSITIONING OF CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN A
DEEP BAND OF MOISTURE...LIKELY OVER OUR EASTERNMOST SECTIONS WE HAVE
MAINTAINED 30-40 POP SCHEME...GREATEST NEAR THE COASTAL CORRIDOR.
WHILE THERE CAN STILL BE SOME T-STORMS WITHIN A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ANY SEVERE RISK SEEMS CLOSE TO...IF NOT ZERO. TEMPS
WILL BE FAR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AT RECORD
LEVELS WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE PARALLEL GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAS PERFORMED WELL OF LATE AND IS
SUGGESTING THAT WE COULD FLIRT WITH THE RECORD HIGHS. THIS IS ALSO
IN LINE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FORECAST. FOR NOW WE HAVE SHOWN
UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE AND CAN ALWAYS ADJUST HIGHER LATER
IN NECESSARY. THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
AFTER SUNSET...BUT CLOUD COVER MIGHT BE SLOW IN ERODING. BUT THAT
SHOULD BE OFFSET BY MODEST COOL ADVECTION WHICH WILL EQUATE TO TEMPS
SOME 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER
NOT FAR OFF THE SE COAST...STILL STUCK WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
WITHIN A HUGE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE NATION. WHILE IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH INTO THE ATLANTIC TO KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED RAINS OFFSHORE...THE FLOW BACKS A LITTLE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT MAY PULL MOISTURE BACK A LITTLE MORE TOWARD
SHORE LATE IN THE DAY. AT PRESENT WE HAVE 20-40 POPS FROM NW TO SE.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS AND THE LACK OF
ANY WARM ADVECTION...AND SOME 15 DEGREES OR MORE COOLER THAN ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AXIS OF A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY SWEEP TOWARD THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT ENERGY HELPING TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MEANDERING OFFSHORE FRONT. THERE
REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST/NW
AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL MAKE IT. THIS WILL HAVE HUGE IMPLICATIONS
ON THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THE RESULTING LOW SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EVENTUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. A NOTABLE COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUPPRESSED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS...THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT BUT MEASURABLE
RAINS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY MORNING NEARING
DAYBREAK...THE RISK FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS
AND A PERIOD OF LLWS WILL INCREASE. THE 18Z NAMM INDICATES A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS PRIOR TO AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
LIFT DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. THE LLWS RISK APPEARS TO BE IN
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS BUT SINCE THIS IS AFTER DAYBREAK WE
HELD OFF ON MENTIONS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAIN LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL
LAPSE RATES AND STABILITY. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES.

KSAV...THE RAINS MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT SHOULD INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AS THE SURFACE FLOW REMAINS EAST WHILE THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS SE LATER SUNDAY MORNING AND INCREASES
TO 40 KT OR GREATER. BETWEEN 11Z-17Z...THE COMBINATION OF
DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR APPEARS ENOUGH FOR PREVAILING LLWS IN THE
TAF. OTHERWISE...INCLEMENT WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN HEAVY AT
TIMES DURING THE MORNING. IFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT TIMES.
AFTER MID AFTERNOON...CIGS COULD LIFT TO LOW-END MVFR...BUT THIS
IS DEPENDENT ON PCPN BECOMING MORE SCATTERED WHICH MOST MODELS
INDICATE WILL OCCUR AFTER 19Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS AND GRADUALLY LOWER CEILINGS
AND POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. IT/LL ALSO BE BREEZY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH A RISK OF WIND SHEAR SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL A COLD
FRONT PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LOCALIZED PINCHED GRADIENT NOTED LATE DAY AND THIS EVENING ALONG
THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE. OBSERVED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS IN THE
20 TO 25 KT RANGE A BIT EARLIER FROM FORT PULASKI AND WXFLOW TYBEE
SENSORS AT TYBEE ISLAND NECESSITATED THE EXPANSION OF OUR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS.

OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST AS THE INLAND WEDGE BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN AND THE COASTAL FRONT EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...DESPITE LESS THAN PERFECT MIXING PROFILES IN THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN 15-20 KT
NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 20-25 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE
GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM WHERE WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES WILL
SUPPORT A BIT MORE MIXING. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 3-6 FT
IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG AND ELONGATED RIDGE OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED EAST-WEST AND NORTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE PULLING FURTHER EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS ALLOWS FOR A WARM FRONT HUNG UP TO THE
EAST OF THE COOLER SHELF WATERS SUNDAY MORNING TO GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTH/NW IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
MARINE AREA DURING THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES
ONSHORE. A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN
AS THE WARM FRONT HEADS FURTHER NORTH/NW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER FROM EAST AROUND TO THE
SE SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING AND FINALLY TO THE SW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRAVERSE THE WATERS
AND DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO LIMIT MIXING...THIS STILL
SUPPORTS SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WE HAVE TOYED WITH THE IDEA
OF A GALE WATCH...BUT GIVEN MARINE-LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN A REGIME
WHERE TEMPS OF THE WATER ARE SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE AIR
TEMPS AND GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS AT 1000 MB ARE NO MORE THAN AROUND
35 KT...THIS POSSIBILITY IS TOO LOW TO CONSIDER AT PRESENT. MAYBE
FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS AT SOME POINT GALES MIGHT BE REQUIRED SINCE
THEIR WATERS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S AND LESS IMPACTED
BY MARINE-LAYERING INFLUENCES. MARINERS SHOULD ALSO BE PREPARED FOR
STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED T-STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
MAY BE NECESSARY.

GIVEN SOME 6-8 FOOTERS WITHIN A 0-20 NM WATERS THERE COULD BE SOME
BREAKERS APPROACHING 4 OR 5 FEET AT THE BEACHES. IF THIS COMES TO
FRUITION WE MIGHT NEED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT A LATER TIMES. FOR
NOW WE/LL ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF SEA FOG GIVEN THE
WARMER AIR ACROSS THE NOTICEABLY COOLER SHELF WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE PROBABLY TOO STRONG FOR THIS...BUT GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS WE HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY
FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT
AWAY FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY HOW
THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS...ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IS
HIGHLY CERTAIN. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.75-2 INCHES COUPLED WITH
GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE PERIOD. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS
FALLING ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE/RE STILL BELOW THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE HOWEVER SINCE WE/RE 1-3 INCHES BELOW NORMAL SINCE
SEPTEMBER 1ST. SO WE/RE HESITANT TO HOIST AN AREAL FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. BUT THE RISK FOR POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE BEAUFORT AND SAVANNAH METRO
AREAS WITH THE MID MOORING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 230246
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
946 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MEANDER OFF THE SE COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOVING
AWAY AND ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT RAINS/SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING BUT ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR WITH MOST OF THE LIGHT
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING THROUGH 02Z. THIS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT STRENGTHENS ATOP A COASTAL
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND A WEDGE AIR MASS INLAND. HEAVIER RAINS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING
AND LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RAINS EXPANDING ACROSS
GEORGIA OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS A LARGE PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
LATE NIGHT. OUR FORECAST POP SCHEME IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY INITIAL
TWEAKS IN THE FIRST 3 HOURS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS MANY AREAS
WILL BE SLOW TO FALL ANY MORE WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND MOST
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA SHOULD SEE
RELATIVELY STEADY OVERNIGHT READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...AN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT ADVANCES QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE TN VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGER SCALE TROUGH IN THE GREAT
PLAINS AND A 110 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET THAT DIVES INTO THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH. THIS IN TURN WILL TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS ALONG AN
INITIAL COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT DEEPENS AND HEADS
RAPIDLY EAST/NE THROUGH THE DAY TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS IT WILL DRAW A WARM FRONT STEADILY NORTH AS IT
REACHES ACROSS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND TOWARD THE SC COAST BY AROUND
15Z...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM US-17 IN SC TO I-16 IN SE GA BY
18Z...AND PROGRESSING NORTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
NIGHTFALL.

HERE ARE THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...

PRECIPITATION...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A MID
LEVEL IMPULSE THAT ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH/SW EARLY IN THE DAY...SOME
AFTERNOON HEIGHTS FALLS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE AND
APPROACHING WARM FRONT...AIDED BY SOME HINTS OF 700-500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS...PWATS NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE...ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON VARIOUS LEVELS AND A 35-45 KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS. THE
TROPOSPHERE IS FULLY SATURATED AS A RESULT AND WE HAVE CONTINUED THE
IDEA OF 100 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
BULLS-EYE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE EARLY-MID ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES...ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS FOR MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AS A PSEUDO DRY-TONGUE TRIES TO PUSH NORTH IN WAKE OF THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSING WARM FRONT. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND
THERE COULD BE AT LEAST FLASH FLOOD ADVISORIES OR PERHAPS EVEN A
COUPLE OF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS DURING THE MID-MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND HEAVY
RAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. A
GLANCE AT THE DAILY PRECIP RECORDS SUGGEST THAT KCHS HAS A GOOD SHOT
OF SETTING A NEW RECORD...AND WE COULD BE CLOSE AT KCXM AND KSAV
ALSO GIVEN MAV MOS GUIDANCE 12 HOURS QPF OF 2 INCHES OF GREATER. SEE
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

SEVERE WEATHER...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR
COASTAL WATERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE THIS TRANSITIONS ONSHORE
AND INLAND IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. DESPITE THE
NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVE FEATURE...THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL
TO THE WEST/NW AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS AWAY TO THE NW AWAY
FROM THE FROM RICH INFLUX OF MOISTURE. PLUS WE HAVE A CONSTANT FEED
OF MARITIME AIR WITH A SE SYNOPTIC FLOW THAT VEERS TO THE SOUTH
LATE. THIS ALONG WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND LOW LFC/S THERE
CERTAINLY DOES REMAIN A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN
VGP AND SHERBS3 VALUES CLOSE TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A SLIGHTLY
BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY COME CLOSER TO EVENING WHEN WE/RE
SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE FLOW VEERS FURTHER. THIS IS
DISCUSSED IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT SECTION.

TEMPS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING OF THE UPCOMING WARM
FRONT...AND FIGURE ON A FAIRLY DECENT RANGE FROM NORTH/NW TO
SOUTH/SE AND AWAY FROM THE COAST. FOR NOW WE HAVE A CONSERVATIVE
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S NORTH/NW TO LOWER 70S SOUTH/SE...BUT
THIS MAY NEED FURTHER REFINEMENTS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES AS
EVEN WARMER AIR WILL BE LURKING JUST TO THE SOUTH.

SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST REGION WILL LIE
SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT PULLS FAR TO THE
NORTH. A TAIL OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY
THROUGH IN THE EVENING TO OFF THE COAST BY 06Z. ON ITS HEELS IS A
120 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET THAT ORIENTS ITSELF EAST/NE TO WEST/SW
ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THIS POSITION
WE/RE WITHIN THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET WHICH SUGGESTS
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE RATHER THAN
DIVERGENCE/DIFLUENCE. PLUS THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF CINH THAT
DEVELOPS AND LAPSE RATES OVERALL REMAIN POOR...ESPECIALLY INT HE
LOWER LEVELS WHERE A SUBTLE INVERSION FORMS. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY
SEVERE THREAT IN CHECK...BUT A CONTINUATION OF LOW LFC LEVELS AND
HIGH SHEAR STILL SUPPORTS A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THAT MAY
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A DECAYING SQUALL LINE DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY WANE FROM SOUTH/SW TO
NORTH/NE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE EXTREME WETNESS FROM ALL
THE RAIN AND SOME INDICATIONS OF STRATUS BUILD-DOWN AND MAYBE EVEN A
LITTLE SEA FOG THROWN INTO THE MIX WE/LL SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...DESPITE THE STRONG WIND FIELDS. PROBABLY THESE WINDS
ARE TOO HIGH FOR DENSE FOG...BUT WE/LL MAINTAIN A CLOSE WEATHER
WATCH TO BE SURE. TEMPS WON/T BUDGE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE INHIBITED BY THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
FULL SATURATION THAT OCCURS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM AN INTENSE
SURFACE CYCLONE AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT SEPARATED
FROM THE PARENT SYSTEM...AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EAST/SE PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH. FRONTAL PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW AS A RESULT...LIKELY NOT
OCCURRING UNTIL THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE AMOUNT AND POSITIONING OF CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN A
DEEP BAND OF MOISTURE...LIKELY OVER OUR EASTERNMOST SECTIONS WE HAVE
MAINTAINED 30-40 POP SCHEME...GREATEST NEAR THE COASTAL CORRIDOR.
WHILE THERE CAN STILL BE SOME T-STORMS WITHIN A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ANY SEVERE RISK SEEMS CLOSE TO...IF NOT ZERO. TEMPS
WILL BE FAR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AT RECORD
LEVELS WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE PARALLEL GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAS PERFORMED WELL OF LATE AND IS
SUGGESTING THAT WE COULD FLIRT WITH THE RECORD HIGHS. THIS IS ALSO
IN LINE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FORECAST. FOR NOW WE HAVE SHOWN
UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE AND CAN ALWAYS ADJUST HIGHER LATER
IN NECESSARY. THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
AFTER SUNSET...BUT CLOUD COVER MIGHT BE SLOW IN ERODING. BUT THAT
SHOULD BE OFFSET BY MODEST COOL ADVECTION WHICH WILL EQUATE TO TEMPS
SOME 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER
NOT FAR OFF THE SE COAST...STILL STUCK WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
WITHIN A HUGE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE NATION. WHILE IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH INTO THE ATLANTIC TO KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED RAINS OFFSHORE...THE FLOW BACKS A LITTLE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT MAY PULL MOISTURE BACK A LITTLE MORE TOWARD
SHORE LATE IN THE DAY. AT PRESENT WE HAVE 20-40 POPS FROM NW TO SE.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS AND THE LACK OF
ANY WARM ADVECTION...AND SOME 15 DEGREES OR MORE COOLER THAN ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AXIS OF A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY SWEEP TOWARD THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT ENERGY HELPING TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MEANDERING OFFSHORE FRONT. THERE
REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST/NW
AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL MAKE IT. THIS WILL HAVE HUGE IMPLICATIONS
ON THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THE RESULTING LOW SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EVENTUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. A NOTABLE COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUPPRESSED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS...THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT BUT MEASURABLE
RAINS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY MORNING NEARING
DAYBREAK...THE RISK FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS
AND A PERIOD OF LLWS WILL INCREASE. THE 18Z NAMM INDICATES A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS PRIOR TO AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
LIFT DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. THE LLWS RISK APPEARS TO BE IN
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS BUT SINCE THIS IS AFTER DAYBREAK WE
HELD OFF ON MENTIONS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAIN LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL
LAPSE RATES AND STABILITY. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES.

KSAV...THE RAINS MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT SHOULD INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AS THE SURFACE FLOW REMAINS EAST WHILE THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS SE LATER SUNDAY MORNING AND INCREASES
TO 40 KT OR GREATER. BETWEEN 11Z-17Z...THE COMBINATION OF
DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR APPEARS ENOUGH FOR PREVAILING LLWS IN THE
TAF. OTHERWISE...INCLEMENT WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN HEAVY AT
TIMES DURING THE MORNING. IFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT TIMES.
AFTER MID AFTERNOON...CIGS COULD LIFT TO LOW-END MVFR...BUT THIS
IS DEPENDENT ON PCPN BECOMING MORE SCATTERED WHICH MOST MODELS
INDICATE WILL OCCUR AFTER 19Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS AND GRADUALLY LOWER CEILINGS
AND POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. IT/LL ALSO BE BREEZY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH A RISK OF WIND SHEAR SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL A COLD
FRONT PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LOCALIZED PINCHED GRADIENT NOTED LATE DAY AND THIS EVENING ALONG
THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE. OBSERVED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS IN THE
20 TO 25 KT RANGE A BIT EARLIER FROM FORT PULASKI AND WXFLOW TYBEE
SENSORS AT TYBEE ISLAND NECESSITATED THE EXPANSION OF OUR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS.

OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST AS THE INLAND WEDGE BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN AND THE COASTAL FRONT EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...DESPITE LESS THAN PERFECT MIXING PROFILES IN THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN 15-20 KT
NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 20-25 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE
GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM WHERE WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES WILL
SUPPORT A BIT MORE MIXING. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 3-6 FT
IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG AND ELONGATED RIDGE OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED EAST-WEST AND NORTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE PULLING FURTHER EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS ALLOWS FOR A WARM FRONT HUNG UP TO THE
EAST OF THE COOLER SHELF WATERS SUNDAY MORNING TO GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTH/NW IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
MARINE AREA DURING THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES
ONSHORE. A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN
AS THE WARM FRONT HEADS FURTHER NORTH/NW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER FROM EAST AROUND TO THE
SE SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING AND FINALLY TO THE SW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRAVERSE THE WATERS
AND DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO LIMIT MIXING...THIS STILL
SUPPORTS SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WE HAVE TOYED WITH THE IDEA
OF A GALE WATCH...BUT GIVEN MARINE-LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN A REGIME
WHERE TEMPS OF THE WATER ARE SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE AIR
TEMPS AND GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS AT 1000 MB ARE NO MORE THAN AROUND
35 KT...THIS POSSIBILITY IS TOO LOW TO CONSIDER AT PRESENT. MAYBE
FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS AT SOME POINT GALES MIGHT BE REQUIRED SINCE
THEIR WATERS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S AND LESS IMPACTED
BY MARINE-LAYERING INFLUENCES. MARINERS SHOULD ALSO BE PREPARED FOR
STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED T-STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
MAY BE NECESSARY.

GIVEN SOME 6-8 FOOTERS WITHIN A 0-20 NM WATERS THERE COULD BE SOME
BREAKERS APPROACHING 4 OR 5 FEET AT THE BEACHES. IF THIS COMES TO
FRUITION WE MIGHT NEED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT A LATER TIMES. FOR
NOW WE/LL ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF SEA FOG GIVEN THE
WARMER AIR ACROSS THE NOTICEABLY COOLER SHELF WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE PROBABLY TOO STRONG FOR THIS...BUT GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS WE HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY
FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT
AWAY FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY HOW
THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS...ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IS
HIGHLY CERTAIN. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.75-2 INCHES COUPLED WITH
GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE PERIOD. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS
FALLING ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE/RE STILL BELOW THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE HOWEVER SINCE WE/RE 1-3 INCHES BELOW NORMAL SINCE
SEPTEMBER 1ST. SO WE/RE HESITANT TO HOIST AN AREAL FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. BUT THE RISK FOR POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE BEAUFORT AND SAVANNAH METRO
AREAS WITH THE MID MOORING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 230021
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
721 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MEANDER OFF THE SE COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOVING
AWAY AND ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING AND RADAR INDICATES AN INCREASE IN LIGHT RAIN COVERAGE
ACROSS SE GEORGIA. THE DEEP LAYERED ATMOSPHERE WAS INITIALLY
DRY AND SHOULD TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO MOISTEN UP. WE THINK SOME OF
THE ECHOES ON RADAR WERE NOT REACHING THE GROUND SPREADING INTO
SE SOUTH CAROLINA BUT A FEW SPOTS ACROSS S GEORGIA HAD INDEED
REPORTED SOME LIGHT RAIN IN TRACE AMOUNTS AS OF 6 PM. WE UPDATED
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT EARLIER IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT...THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PUMP IN PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ATOP THE COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WITH
PWATS INCREASING TO ABOUT 1.5-2 INCHES BY DAYBREAK...HIGHEST OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LATEST THINKING IS THAT RAIN WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT REALLY RAMPS UP...GENERALLY
SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST SC LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME INDICATION IN THE MODELS THAT THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE
RAIN BETWEEN THE INITIAL SHOT OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THE
MORE WIDESPREAD STEADIER RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER.
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATE RAINFALL WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY WE DO
NOT EXPECT ANY FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD /OFFICIALLY
ENDING AT 6 AM/. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK OVER LAND WITH THE
LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE AND THUS WE THINK THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE GEORGIA
ATLANTIC WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING ALONG THE GA COAST. LOWS
SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NORTH AND WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING BEFORE THE CLOUDS
INCREASE...TO MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH AND EAST...WITH LOWER 60S
OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. NOT EXPECTING A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AS
LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BEFORE THE
CLOUDS/WARM ADVECTION INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...AN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT ADVANCES QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE TN VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGER SCALE TROUGH IN THE GREAT
PLAINS AND A 110 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET THAT DIVES INTO THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH. THIS IN TURN WILL TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS ALONG AN
INITIAL COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT DEEPENS AND HEADS
RAPIDLY EAST/NE THROUGH THE DAY TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS IT WILL DRAW A WARM FRONT STEADILY NORTH AS IT
REACHES ACROSS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND TOWARD THE SC COAST BY AROUND
15Z...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM US-17 IN SC TO I-16 IN SE GA BY
18Z...AND PROGRESSING NORTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
NIGHTFALL.

HERE ARE THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...

PRECIPITATION...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A MID
LEVEL IMPULSE THAT ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH/SW EARLY IN THE DAY...SOME
AFTERNOON HEIGHTS FALLS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE AND
APPROACHING WARM FRONT...AIDED BY SOME HINTS OF 700-500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS...PWATS NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE...ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON VARIOUS LEVELS AND A 35-45 KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS. THE
TROPOSPHERE IS FULLY SATURATED AS A RESULT AND WE HAVE CONTINUED THE
IDEA OF 100 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
BULLS-EYE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE EARLY-MID ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES...ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS FOR MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AS A PSEUDO DRY-TONGUE TRIES TO PUSH NORTH IN WAKE OF THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSING WARM FRONT. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND
THERE COULD BE AT LEAST FLASH FLOOD ADVISORIES OR PERHAPS EVEN A
COUPLE OF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS DURING THE MID-MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND HEAVY
RAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. A
GLANCE AT THE DAILY PRECIP RECORDS SUGGEST THAT KCHS HAS A GOOD SHOT
OF SETTING A NEW RECORD...AND WE COULD BE CLOSE AT KCXM AND KSAV
ALSO GIVEN MAV MOS GUIDANCE 12 HOURS QPF OF 2 INCHES OF GREATER. SEE
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

SEVERE WEATHER...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR
COASTAL WATERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE THIS TRANSITIONS ONSHORE
AND INLAND IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. DESPITE THE
NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVE FEATURE...THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL
TO THE WEST/NW AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS AWAY TO THE NW AWAY
FROM THE FROM RICH INFLUX OF MOISTURE. PLUS WE HAVE A CONSTANT FEED
OF MARITIME AIR WITH A SE SYNOPTIC FLOW THAT VEERS TO THE SOUTH
LATE. THIS ALONG WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND LOW LFC/S THERE
CERTAINLY DOES REMAIN A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN
VGP AND SHERBS3 VALUES CLOSE TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A SLIGHTLY
BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY COME CLOSER TO EVENING WHEN WE/RE
SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE FLOW VEERS FURTHER. THIS IS
DISCUSSED IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT SECTION.

TEMPS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING OF THE UPCOMING WARM
FRONT...AND FIGURE ON A FAIRLY DECENT RANGE FROM NORTH/NW TO
SOUTH/SE AND AWAY FROM THE COAST. FOR NOW WE HAVE A CONSERVATIVE
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S NORTH/NW TO LOWER 70S SOUTH/SE...BUT
THIS MAY NEED FURTHER REFINEMENTS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES AS
EVEN WARMER AIR WILL BE LURKING JUST TO THE SOUTH.

SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST REGION WILL LIE
SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT PULLS FAR TO THE
NORTH. A TAIL OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY
THROUGH IN THE EVENING TO OFF THE COAST BY 06Z. ON ITS HEELS IS A
120 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET THAT ORIENTS ITSELF EAST/NE TO WEST/SW
ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THIS POSITION
WE/RE WITHIN THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET WHICH SUGGESTS
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE RATHER THAN
DIVERGENCE/DIFLUENCE. PLUS THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF CINH THAT
DEVELOPS AND LAPSE RATES OVERALL REMAIN POOR...ESPECIALLY INT HE
LOWER LEVELS WHERE A SUBTLE INVERSION FORMS. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY
SEVERE THREAT IN CHECK...BUT A CONTINUATION OF LOW LFC LEVELS AND
HIGH SHEAR STILL SUPPORTS A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THAT MAY
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A DECAYING SQUALL LINE DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY WANE FROM SOUTH/SW TO
NORTH/NE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE EXTREME WETNESS FROM ALL
THE RAIN AND SOME INDICATIONS OF STRATUS BUILD-DOWN AND MAYBE EVEN A
LITTLE SEA FOG THROWN INTO THE MIX WE/LL SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...DESPITE THE STRONG WIND FIELDS. PROBABLY THESE WINDS
ARE TOO HIGH FOR DENSE FOG...BUT WE/LL MAINTAIN A CLOSE WEATHER
WATCH TO BE SURE. TEMPS WON/T BUDGE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE INHIBITED BY THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
FULL SATURATION THAT OCCURS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM AN INTENSE
SURFACE CYCLONE AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT SEPARATED
FROM THE PARENT SYSTEM...AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EAST/SE PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH. FRONTAL PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW AS A RESULT...LIKELY NOT
OCCURRING UNTIL THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE AMOUNT AND POSITIONING OF CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN A
DEEP BAND OF MOISTURE...LIKELY OVER OUR EASTERNMOST SECTIONS WE HAVE
MAINTAINED 30-40 POP SCHEME...GREATEST NEAR THE COASTAL CORRIDOR.
WHILE THERE CAN STILL BE SOME T-STORMS WITHIN A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ANY SEVERE RISK SEEMS CLOSE TO...IF NOT ZERO. TEMPS
WILL BE FAR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AT RECORD
LEVELS WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE PARALLEL GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAS PERFORMED WELL OF LATE AND IS
SUGGESTING THAT WE COULD FLIRT WITH THE RECORD HIGHS. THIS IS ALSO
IN LINE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FORECAST. FOR NOW WE HAVE SHOWN
UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE AND CAN ALWAYS ADJUST HIGHER LATER
IN NECESSARY. THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
AFTER SUNSET...BUT CLOUD COVER MIGHT BE SLOW IN ERODING. BUT THAT
SHOULD BE OFFSET BY MODEST COOL ADVECTION WHICH WILL EQUATE TO TEMPS
SOME 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER
NOT FAR OFF THE SE COAST...STILL STUCK WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
WITHIN A HUGE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE NATION. WHILE IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH INTO THE ATLANTIC TO KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED RAINS OFFSHORE...THE FLOW BACKS A LITTLE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT MAY PULL MOISTURE BACK A LITTLE MORE TOWARD
SHORE LATE IN THE DAY. AT PRESENT WE HAVE 20-40 POPS FROM NW TO SE.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS AND THE LACK OF
ANY WARM ADVECTION...AND SOME 15 DEGREES OR MORE COOLER THAN ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AXIS OF A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY SWEEP TOWARD THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT ENERGY HELPING TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MEANDERING OFFSHORE FRONT. THERE
REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST/NW
AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL MAKE IT. THIS WILL HAVE HUGE IMPLICATIONS
ON THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THE RESULTING LOW SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EVENTUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. A NOTABLE COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUPPRESSED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS...THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT BUT MEASURABLE
RAINS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY MORNING NEARING
DAYBREAK...THE RISK FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS
AND A PERIOD OF LLWS WILL INCREASE. THE 18Z NAMM INDICATES A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS PRIOR TO AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
LIFT DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. THE LLWS RISK APPEARS TO BE IN
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS BUT SINCE THIS IS AFTER DAYBREAK WE
HELD OFF ON MENTIONS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAIN LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL
LAPSE RATES AND STABILITY. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES.

KSAV...THE RAINS MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT AND SHOULD INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AS THE SURFACE FLOW REMAINS EAST WHILE THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS SE LATER SUNDAY MORNING AND INCREASES
TO 40 KT OR GREATER. BETWEEN 11Z-17Z...THE COMBINATION OF
DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR APPEARS ENOUGH FOR PREVAILING LLWS IN THE
TAF. OTHERWISE...INCLEMENT WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN HEAVY AT
TIMES DURING THE MORNING. IFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT TIMES.
AFTER MID AFTERNOON...CIGS COULD LIFT TO LOW-END MVFR...BUT THIS
IS DEPENDENT ON PCPN BECOMING MORE SCATTERED WHICH MOST MODELS
INDICATE WILL OCCUR AFTER 19Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS AND GRADUALLY LOWER CEILINGS
AND POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. IT/LL ALSO BE BREEZY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH A RISK OF WIND SHEAR SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL A COLD
FRONT PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
INLAND WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE COASTAL FRONT EVENTUALLY
MERGES WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...DESPITE LESS THAN PERFECT MIXING
PROFILES IN THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN 15-20 KT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 20-25 KT WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM WHERE WARMER WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A BIT MORE MIXING. SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE 3-6 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG AND ELONGATED RIDGE OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED EAST-WEST AND NORTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE PULLING FURTHER EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS ALLOWS FOR A WARM FRONT HUNG UP TO THE
EAST OF THE COOLER SHELF WATERS SUNDAY MORNING TO GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTH/NW IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
MARINE AREA DURING THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES
ONSHORE. A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN
AS THE WARM FRONT HEADS FURTHER NORTH/NW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER FROM EAST AROUND TO THE
SE SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING AND FINALLY TO THE SW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRAVERSE THE WATERS
AND DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO LIMIT MIXING...THIS STILL
SUPPORTS SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WE HAVE TOYED WITH THE IDEA
OF A GALE WATCH...BUT GIVEN MARINE-LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN A REGIME
WHERE TEMPS OF THE WATER ARE SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE AIR
TEMPS AND GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS AT 1000 MB ARE NO MORE THAN AROUND
35 KT...THIS POSSIBILITY IS TOO LOW TO CONSIDER AT PRESENT. MAYBE
FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS AT SOME POINT GALES MIGHT BE REQUIRED SINCE
THEIR WATERS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S AND LESS IMPACTED
BY MARINE-LAYERING INFLUENCES. MARINERS SHOULD ALSO BE PREPARED FOR
STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED T-STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
MAY BE NECESSARY.

GIVEN SOME 6-8 FOOTERS WITHIN A 0-20 NM WATERS THERE COULD BE SOME
BREAKERS APPROACHING 4 OR 5 FEET AT THE BEACHES. IF THIS COMES TO
FRUITION WE MIGHT NEED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT A LATER TIMES. FOR
NOW WE/LL ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF SEA FOG GIVEN THE
WARMER AIR ACROSS THE NOTICEABLY COOLER SHELF WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE PROBABLY TOO STRONG FOR THIS...BUT GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS WE HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY
FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT
AWAY FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY HOW
THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS...ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IS
HIGHLY CERTAIN. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.75-2 INCHES COUPLED WITH
GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE PERIOD. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS
FALLING ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE/RE STILL BELOW THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE HOWEVER SINCE WE/RE 1-3 INCHES BELOW NORMAL SINCE
SEPTEMBER 1ST. SO WE/RE HESITANT TO HOIST AN AREAL FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. BUT THE RISK FOR POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE BEAUFORT AND SAVANNAH METRO
AREAS WITH THE MID MOORING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 230021
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
721 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MEANDER OFF THE SE COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOVING
AWAY AND ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING AND RADAR INDICATES AN INCREASE IN LIGHT RAIN COVERAGE
ACROSS SE GEORGIA. THE DEEP LAYERED ATMOSPHERE WAS INITIALLY
DRY AND SHOULD TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO MOISTEN UP. WE THINK SOME OF
THE ECHOES ON RADAR WERE NOT REACHING THE GROUND SPREADING INTO
SE SOUTH CAROLINA BUT A FEW SPOTS ACROSS S GEORGIA HAD INDEED
REPORTED SOME LIGHT RAIN IN TRACE AMOUNTS AS OF 6 PM. WE UPDATED
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT EARLIER IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT...THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PUMP IN PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ATOP THE COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WITH
PWATS INCREASING TO ABOUT 1.5-2 INCHES BY DAYBREAK...HIGHEST OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LATEST THINKING IS THAT RAIN WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT REALLY RAMPS UP...GENERALLY
SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST SC LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME INDICATION IN THE MODELS THAT THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE
RAIN BETWEEN THE INITIAL SHOT OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THE
MORE WIDESPREAD STEADIER RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER.
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATE RAINFALL WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY WE DO
NOT EXPECT ANY FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD /OFFICIALLY
ENDING AT 6 AM/. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK OVER LAND WITH THE
LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE AND THUS WE THINK THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE GEORGIA
ATLANTIC WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING ALONG THE GA COAST. LOWS
SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NORTH AND WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING BEFORE THE CLOUDS
INCREASE...TO MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH AND EAST...WITH LOWER 60S
OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. NOT EXPECTING A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AS
LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BEFORE THE
CLOUDS/WARM ADVECTION INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...AN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT ADVANCES QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE TN VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGER SCALE TROUGH IN THE GREAT
PLAINS AND A 110 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET THAT DIVES INTO THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH. THIS IN TURN WILL TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS ALONG AN
INITIAL COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT DEEPENS AND HEADS
RAPIDLY EAST/NE THROUGH THE DAY TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS IT WILL DRAW A WARM FRONT STEADILY NORTH AS IT
REACHES ACROSS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND TOWARD THE SC COAST BY AROUND
15Z...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM US-17 IN SC TO I-16 IN SE GA BY
18Z...AND PROGRESSING NORTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
NIGHTFALL.

HERE ARE THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...

PRECIPITATION...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A MID
LEVEL IMPULSE THAT ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH/SW EARLY IN THE DAY...SOME
AFTERNOON HEIGHTS FALLS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE AND
APPROACHING WARM FRONT...AIDED BY SOME HINTS OF 700-500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS...PWATS NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE...ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON VARIOUS LEVELS AND A 35-45 KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS. THE
TROPOSPHERE IS FULLY SATURATED AS A RESULT AND WE HAVE CONTINUED THE
IDEA OF 100 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
BULLS-EYE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE EARLY-MID ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES...ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS FOR MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AS A PSEUDO DRY-TONGUE TRIES TO PUSH NORTH IN WAKE OF THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSING WARM FRONT. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND
THERE COULD BE AT LEAST FLASH FLOOD ADVISORIES OR PERHAPS EVEN A
COUPLE OF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS DURING THE MID-MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND HEAVY
RAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. A
GLANCE AT THE DAILY PRECIP RECORDS SUGGEST THAT KCHS HAS A GOOD SHOT
OF SETTING A NEW RECORD...AND WE COULD BE CLOSE AT KCXM AND KSAV
ALSO GIVEN MAV MOS GUIDANCE 12 HOURS QPF OF 2 INCHES OF GREATER. SEE
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

SEVERE WEATHER...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR
COASTAL WATERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE THIS TRANSITIONS ONSHORE
AND INLAND IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. DESPITE THE
NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVE FEATURE...THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL
TO THE WEST/NW AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS AWAY TO THE NW AWAY
FROM THE FROM RICH INFLUX OF MOISTURE. PLUS WE HAVE A CONSTANT FEED
OF MARITIME AIR WITH A SE SYNOPTIC FLOW THAT VEERS TO THE SOUTH
LATE. THIS ALONG WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND LOW LFC/S THERE
CERTAINLY DOES REMAIN A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN
VGP AND SHERBS3 VALUES CLOSE TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A SLIGHTLY
BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY COME CLOSER TO EVENING WHEN WE/RE
SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE FLOW VEERS FURTHER. THIS IS
DISCUSSED IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT SECTION.

TEMPS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING OF THE UPCOMING WARM
FRONT...AND FIGURE ON A FAIRLY DECENT RANGE FROM NORTH/NW TO
SOUTH/SE AND AWAY FROM THE COAST. FOR NOW WE HAVE A CONSERVATIVE
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S NORTH/NW TO LOWER 70S SOUTH/SE...BUT
THIS MAY NEED FURTHER REFINEMENTS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES AS
EVEN WARMER AIR WILL BE LURKING JUST TO THE SOUTH.

SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST REGION WILL LIE
SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT PULLS FAR TO THE
NORTH. A TAIL OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY
THROUGH IN THE EVENING TO OFF THE COAST BY 06Z. ON ITS HEELS IS A
120 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET THAT ORIENTS ITSELF EAST/NE TO WEST/SW
ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THIS POSITION
WE/RE WITHIN THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET WHICH SUGGESTS
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE RATHER THAN
DIVERGENCE/DIFLUENCE. PLUS THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF CINH THAT
DEVELOPS AND LAPSE RATES OVERALL REMAIN POOR...ESPECIALLY INT HE
LOWER LEVELS WHERE A SUBTLE INVERSION FORMS. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY
SEVERE THREAT IN CHECK...BUT A CONTINUATION OF LOW LFC LEVELS AND
HIGH SHEAR STILL SUPPORTS A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THAT MAY
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A DECAYING SQUALL LINE DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY WANE FROM SOUTH/SW TO
NORTH/NE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE EXTREME WETNESS FROM ALL
THE RAIN AND SOME INDICATIONS OF STRATUS BUILD-DOWN AND MAYBE EVEN A
LITTLE SEA FOG THROWN INTO THE MIX WE/LL SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...DESPITE THE STRONG WIND FIELDS. PROBABLY THESE WINDS
ARE TOO HIGH FOR DENSE FOG...BUT WE/LL MAINTAIN A CLOSE WEATHER
WATCH TO BE SURE. TEMPS WON/T BUDGE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE INHIBITED BY THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
FULL SATURATION THAT OCCURS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM AN INTENSE
SURFACE CYCLONE AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT SEPARATED
FROM THE PARENT SYSTEM...AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EAST/SE PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH. FRONTAL PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW AS A RESULT...LIKELY NOT
OCCURRING UNTIL THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE AMOUNT AND POSITIONING OF CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN A
DEEP BAND OF MOISTURE...LIKELY OVER OUR EASTERNMOST SECTIONS WE HAVE
MAINTAINED 30-40 POP SCHEME...GREATEST NEAR THE COASTAL CORRIDOR.
WHILE THERE CAN STILL BE SOME T-STORMS WITHIN A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ANY SEVERE RISK SEEMS CLOSE TO...IF NOT ZERO. TEMPS
WILL BE FAR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AT RECORD
LEVELS WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE PARALLEL GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAS PERFORMED WELL OF LATE AND IS
SUGGESTING THAT WE COULD FLIRT WITH THE RECORD HIGHS. THIS IS ALSO
IN LINE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FORECAST. FOR NOW WE HAVE SHOWN
UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE AND CAN ALWAYS ADJUST HIGHER LATER
IN NECESSARY. THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
AFTER SUNSET...BUT CLOUD COVER MIGHT BE SLOW IN ERODING. BUT THAT
SHOULD BE OFFSET BY MODEST COOL ADVECTION WHICH WILL EQUATE TO TEMPS
SOME 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER
NOT FAR OFF THE SE COAST...STILL STUCK WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
WITHIN A HUGE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE NATION. WHILE IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH INTO THE ATLANTIC TO KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED RAINS OFFSHORE...THE FLOW BACKS A LITTLE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT MAY PULL MOISTURE BACK A LITTLE MORE TOWARD
SHORE LATE IN THE DAY. AT PRESENT WE HAVE 20-40 POPS FROM NW TO SE.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS AND THE LACK OF
ANY WARM ADVECTION...AND SOME 15 DEGREES OR MORE COOLER THAN ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AXIS OF A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY SWEEP TOWARD THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT ENERGY HELPING TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MEANDERING OFFSHORE FRONT. THERE
REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST/NW
AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL MAKE IT. THIS WILL HAVE HUGE IMPLICATIONS
ON THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THE RESULTING LOW SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EVENTUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. A NOTABLE COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUPPRESSED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS...THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT BUT MEASURABLE
RAINS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY MORNING NEARING
DAYBREAK...THE RISK FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS
AND A PERIOD OF LLWS WILL INCREASE. THE 18Z NAMM INDICATES A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS PRIOR TO AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
LIFT DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. THE LLWS RISK APPEARS TO BE IN
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS BUT SINCE THIS IS AFTER DAYBREAK WE
HELD OFF ON MENTIONS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAIN LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL
LAPSE RATES AND STABILITY. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES.

KSAV...THE RAINS MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT AND SHOULD INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AS THE SURFACE FLOW REMAINS EAST WHILE THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS SE LATER SUNDAY MORNING AND INCREASES
TO 40 KT OR GREATER. BETWEEN 11Z-17Z...THE COMBINATION OF
DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR APPEARS ENOUGH FOR PREVAILING LLWS IN THE
TAF. OTHERWISE...INCLEMENT WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN HEAVY AT
TIMES DURING THE MORNING. IFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT TIMES.
AFTER MID AFTERNOON...CIGS COULD LIFT TO LOW-END MVFR...BUT THIS
IS DEPENDENT ON PCPN BECOMING MORE SCATTERED WHICH MOST MODELS
INDICATE WILL OCCUR AFTER 19Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS AND GRADUALLY LOWER CEILINGS
AND POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. IT/LL ALSO BE BREEZY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH A RISK OF WIND SHEAR SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL A COLD
FRONT PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
INLAND WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE COASTAL FRONT EVENTUALLY
MERGES WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...DESPITE LESS THAN PERFECT MIXING
PROFILES IN THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN 15-20 KT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 20-25 KT WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM WHERE WARMER WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A BIT MORE MIXING. SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE 3-6 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG AND ELONGATED RIDGE OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED EAST-WEST AND NORTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE PULLING FURTHER EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS ALLOWS FOR A WARM FRONT HUNG UP TO THE
EAST OF THE COOLER SHELF WATERS SUNDAY MORNING TO GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTH/NW IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
MARINE AREA DURING THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES
ONSHORE. A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN
AS THE WARM FRONT HEADS FURTHER NORTH/NW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER FROM EAST AROUND TO THE
SE SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING AND FINALLY TO THE SW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRAVERSE THE WATERS
AND DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO LIMIT MIXING...THIS STILL
SUPPORTS SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WE HAVE TOYED WITH THE IDEA
OF A GALE WATCH...BUT GIVEN MARINE-LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN A REGIME
WHERE TEMPS OF THE WATER ARE SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE AIR
TEMPS AND GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS AT 1000 MB ARE NO MORE THAN AROUND
35 KT...THIS POSSIBILITY IS TOO LOW TO CONSIDER AT PRESENT. MAYBE
FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS AT SOME POINT GALES MIGHT BE REQUIRED SINCE
THEIR WATERS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S AND LESS IMPACTED
BY MARINE-LAYERING INFLUENCES. MARINERS SHOULD ALSO BE PREPARED FOR
STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED T-STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
MAY BE NECESSARY.

GIVEN SOME 6-8 FOOTERS WITHIN A 0-20 NM WATERS THERE COULD BE SOME
BREAKERS APPROACHING 4 OR 5 FEET AT THE BEACHES. IF THIS COMES TO
FRUITION WE MIGHT NEED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT A LATER TIMES. FOR
NOW WE/LL ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF SEA FOG GIVEN THE
WARMER AIR ACROSS THE NOTICEABLY COOLER SHELF WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE PROBABLY TOO STRONG FOR THIS...BUT GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS WE HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY
FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT
AWAY FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY HOW
THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS...ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IS
HIGHLY CERTAIN. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.75-2 INCHES COUPLED WITH
GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE PERIOD. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS
FALLING ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE/RE STILL BELOW THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE HOWEVER SINCE WE/RE 1-3 INCHES BELOW NORMAL SINCE
SEPTEMBER 1ST. SO WE/RE HESITANT TO HOIST AN AREAL FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. BUT THE RISK FOR POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE BEAUFORT AND SAVANNAH METRO
AREAS WITH THE MID MOORING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 230021
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
721 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MEANDER OFF THE SE COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOVING
AWAY AND ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING AND RADAR INDICATES AN INCREASE IN LIGHT RAIN COVERAGE
ACROSS SE GEORGIA. THE DEEP LAYERED ATMOSPHERE WAS INITIALLY
DRY AND SHOULD TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO MOISTEN UP. WE THINK SOME OF
THE ECHOES ON RADAR WERE NOT REACHING THE GROUND SPREADING INTO
SE SOUTH CAROLINA BUT A FEW SPOTS ACROSS S GEORGIA HAD INDEED
REPORTED SOME LIGHT RAIN IN TRACE AMOUNTS AS OF 6 PM. WE UPDATED
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT EARLIER IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT...THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PUMP IN PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ATOP THE COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WITH
PWATS INCREASING TO ABOUT 1.5-2 INCHES BY DAYBREAK...HIGHEST OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LATEST THINKING IS THAT RAIN WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT REALLY RAMPS UP...GENERALLY
SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST SC LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME INDICATION IN THE MODELS THAT THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE
RAIN BETWEEN THE INITIAL SHOT OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THE
MORE WIDESPREAD STEADIER RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER.
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATE RAINFALL WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY WE DO
NOT EXPECT ANY FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD /OFFICIALLY
ENDING AT 6 AM/. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK OVER LAND WITH THE
LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE AND THUS WE THINK THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE GEORGIA
ATLANTIC WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING ALONG THE GA COAST. LOWS
SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NORTH AND WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING BEFORE THE CLOUDS
INCREASE...TO MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH AND EAST...WITH LOWER 60S
OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. NOT EXPECTING A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AS
LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BEFORE THE
CLOUDS/WARM ADVECTION INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...AN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT ADVANCES QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE TN VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGER SCALE TROUGH IN THE GREAT
PLAINS AND A 110 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET THAT DIVES INTO THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH. THIS IN TURN WILL TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS ALONG AN
INITIAL COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT DEEPENS AND HEADS
RAPIDLY EAST/NE THROUGH THE DAY TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS IT WILL DRAW A WARM FRONT STEADILY NORTH AS IT
REACHES ACROSS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND TOWARD THE SC COAST BY AROUND
15Z...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM US-17 IN SC TO I-16 IN SE GA BY
18Z...AND PROGRESSING NORTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
NIGHTFALL.

HERE ARE THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...

PRECIPITATION...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A MID
LEVEL IMPULSE THAT ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH/SW EARLY IN THE DAY...SOME
AFTERNOON HEIGHTS FALLS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE AND
APPROACHING WARM FRONT...AIDED BY SOME HINTS OF 700-500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS...PWATS NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE...ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON VARIOUS LEVELS AND A 35-45 KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS. THE
TROPOSPHERE IS FULLY SATURATED AS A RESULT AND WE HAVE CONTINUED THE
IDEA OF 100 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
BULLS-EYE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE EARLY-MID ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES...ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS FOR MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AS A PSEUDO DRY-TONGUE TRIES TO PUSH NORTH IN WAKE OF THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSING WARM FRONT. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND
THERE COULD BE AT LEAST FLASH FLOOD ADVISORIES OR PERHAPS EVEN A
COUPLE OF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS DURING THE MID-MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND HEAVY
RAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. A
GLANCE AT THE DAILY PRECIP RECORDS SUGGEST THAT KCHS HAS A GOOD SHOT
OF SETTING A NEW RECORD...AND WE COULD BE CLOSE AT KCXM AND KSAV
ALSO GIVEN MAV MOS GUIDANCE 12 HOURS QPF OF 2 INCHES OF GREATER. SEE
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

SEVERE WEATHER...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR
COASTAL WATERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE THIS TRANSITIONS ONSHORE
AND INLAND IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. DESPITE THE
NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVE FEATURE...THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL
TO THE WEST/NW AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS AWAY TO THE NW AWAY
FROM THE FROM RICH INFLUX OF MOISTURE. PLUS WE HAVE A CONSTANT FEED
OF MARITIME AIR WITH A SE SYNOPTIC FLOW THAT VEERS TO THE SOUTH
LATE. THIS ALONG WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND LOW LFC/S THERE
CERTAINLY DOES REMAIN A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN
VGP AND SHERBS3 VALUES CLOSE TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A SLIGHTLY
BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY COME CLOSER TO EVENING WHEN WE/RE
SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE FLOW VEERS FURTHER. THIS IS
DISCUSSED IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT SECTION.

TEMPS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING OF THE UPCOMING WARM
FRONT...AND FIGURE ON A FAIRLY DECENT RANGE FROM NORTH/NW TO
SOUTH/SE AND AWAY FROM THE COAST. FOR NOW WE HAVE A CONSERVATIVE
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S NORTH/NW TO LOWER 70S SOUTH/SE...BUT
THIS MAY NEED FURTHER REFINEMENTS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES AS
EVEN WARMER AIR WILL BE LURKING JUST TO THE SOUTH.

SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST REGION WILL LIE
SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT PULLS FAR TO THE
NORTH. A TAIL OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY
THROUGH IN THE EVENING TO OFF THE COAST BY 06Z. ON ITS HEELS IS A
120 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET THAT ORIENTS ITSELF EAST/NE TO WEST/SW
ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THIS POSITION
WE/RE WITHIN THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET WHICH SUGGESTS
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE RATHER THAN
DIVERGENCE/DIFLUENCE. PLUS THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF CINH THAT
DEVELOPS AND LAPSE RATES OVERALL REMAIN POOR...ESPECIALLY INT HE
LOWER LEVELS WHERE A SUBTLE INVERSION FORMS. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY
SEVERE THREAT IN CHECK...BUT A CONTINUATION OF LOW LFC LEVELS AND
HIGH SHEAR STILL SUPPORTS A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THAT MAY
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A DECAYING SQUALL LINE DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY WANE FROM SOUTH/SW TO
NORTH/NE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE EXTREME WETNESS FROM ALL
THE RAIN AND SOME INDICATIONS OF STRATUS BUILD-DOWN AND MAYBE EVEN A
LITTLE SEA FOG THROWN INTO THE MIX WE/LL SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...DESPITE THE STRONG WIND FIELDS. PROBABLY THESE WINDS
ARE TOO HIGH FOR DENSE FOG...BUT WE/LL MAINTAIN A CLOSE WEATHER
WATCH TO BE SURE. TEMPS WON/T BUDGE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE INHIBITED BY THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
FULL SATURATION THAT OCCURS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM AN INTENSE
SURFACE CYCLONE AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT SEPARATED
FROM THE PARENT SYSTEM...AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EAST/SE PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH. FRONTAL PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW AS A RESULT...LIKELY NOT
OCCURRING UNTIL THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE AMOUNT AND POSITIONING OF CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN A
DEEP BAND OF MOISTURE...LIKELY OVER OUR EASTERNMOST SECTIONS WE HAVE
MAINTAINED 30-40 POP SCHEME...GREATEST NEAR THE COASTAL CORRIDOR.
WHILE THERE CAN STILL BE SOME T-STORMS WITHIN A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ANY SEVERE RISK SEEMS CLOSE TO...IF NOT ZERO. TEMPS
WILL BE FAR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AT RECORD
LEVELS WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE PARALLEL GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAS PERFORMED WELL OF LATE AND IS
SUGGESTING THAT WE COULD FLIRT WITH THE RECORD HIGHS. THIS IS ALSO
IN LINE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FORECAST. FOR NOW WE HAVE SHOWN
UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE AND CAN ALWAYS ADJUST HIGHER LATER
IN NECESSARY. THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
AFTER SUNSET...BUT CLOUD COVER MIGHT BE SLOW IN ERODING. BUT THAT
SHOULD BE OFFSET BY MODEST COOL ADVECTION WHICH WILL EQUATE TO TEMPS
SOME 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER
NOT FAR OFF THE SE COAST...STILL STUCK WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
WITHIN A HUGE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE NATION. WHILE IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH INTO THE ATLANTIC TO KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED RAINS OFFSHORE...THE FLOW BACKS A LITTLE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT MAY PULL MOISTURE BACK A LITTLE MORE TOWARD
SHORE LATE IN THE DAY. AT PRESENT WE HAVE 20-40 POPS FROM NW TO SE.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS AND THE LACK OF
ANY WARM ADVECTION...AND SOME 15 DEGREES OR MORE COOLER THAN ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AXIS OF A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY SWEEP TOWARD THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT ENERGY HELPING TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MEANDERING OFFSHORE FRONT. THERE
REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST/NW
AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL MAKE IT. THIS WILL HAVE HUGE IMPLICATIONS
ON THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THE RESULTING LOW SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EVENTUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. A NOTABLE COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUPPRESSED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS...THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT BUT MEASURABLE
RAINS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY MORNING NEARING
DAYBREAK...THE RISK FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS
AND A PERIOD OF LLWS WILL INCREASE. THE 18Z NAMM INDICATES A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS PRIOR TO AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
LIFT DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. THE LLWS RISK APPEARS TO BE IN
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS BUT SINCE THIS IS AFTER DAYBREAK WE
HELD OFF ON MENTIONS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAIN LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL
LAPSE RATES AND STABILITY. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES.

KSAV...THE RAINS MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT AND SHOULD INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AS THE SURFACE FLOW REMAINS EAST WHILE THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS SE LATER SUNDAY MORNING AND INCREASES
TO 40 KT OR GREATER. BETWEEN 11Z-17Z...THE COMBINATION OF
DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR APPEARS ENOUGH FOR PREVAILING LLWS IN THE
TAF. OTHERWISE...INCLEMENT WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN HEAVY AT
TIMES DURING THE MORNING. IFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT TIMES.
AFTER MID AFTERNOON...CIGS COULD LIFT TO LOW-END MVFR...BUT THIS
IS DEPENDENT ON PCPN BECOMING MORE SCATTERED WHICH MOST MODELS
INDICATE WILL OCCUR AFTER 19Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS AND GRADUALLY LOWER CEILINGS
AND POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. IT/LL ALSO BE BREEZY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH A RISK OF WIND SHEAR SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL A COLD
FRONT PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
INLAND WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE COASTAL FRONT EVENTUALLY
MERGES WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...DESPITE LESS THAN PERFECT MIXING
PROFILES IN THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN 15-20 KT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 20-25 KT WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM WHERE WARMER WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A BIT MORE MIXING. SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE 3-6 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG AND ELONGATED RIDGE OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED EAST-WEST AND NORTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE PULLING FURTHER EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS ALLOWS FOR A WARM FRONT HUNG UP TO THE
EAST OF THE COOLER SHELF WATERS SUNDAY MORNING TO GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTH/NW IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
MARINE AREA DURING THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES
ONSHORE. A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN
AS THE WARM FRONT HEADS FURTHER NORTH/NW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER FROM EAST AROUND TO THE
SE SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING AND FINALLY TO THE SW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRAVERSE THE WATERS
AND DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO LIMIT MIXING...THIS STILL
SUPPORTS SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WE HAVE TOYED WITH THE IDEA
OF A GALE WATCH...BUT GIVEN MARINE-LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN A REGIME
WHERE TEMPS OF THE WATER ARE SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE AIR
TEMPS AND GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS AT 1000 MB ARE NO MORE THAN AROUND
35 KT...THIS POSSIBILITY IS TOO LOW TO CONSIDER AT PRESENT. MAYBE
FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS AT SOME POINT GALES MIGHT BE REQUIRED SINCE
THEIR WATERS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S AND LESS IMPACTED
BY MARINE-LAYERING INFLUENCES. MARINERS SHOULD ALSO BE PREPARED FOR
STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED T-STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
MAY BE NECESSARY.

GIVEN SOME 6-8 FOOTERS WITHIN A 0-20 NM WATERS THERE COULD BE SOME
BREAKERS APPROACHING 4 OR 5 FEET AT THE BEACHES. IF THIS COMES TO
FRUITION WE MIGHT NEED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT A LATER TIMES. FOR
NOW WE/LL ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF SEA FOG GIVEN THE
WARMER AIR ACROSS THE NOTICEABLY COOLER SHELF WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE PROBABLY TOO STRONG FOR THIS...BUT GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS WE HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY
FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT
AWAY FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY HOW
THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS...ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IS
HIGHLY CERTAIN. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.75-2 INCHES COUPLED WITH
GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE PERIOD. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS
FALLING ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE/RE STILL BELOW THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE HOWEVER SINCE WE/RE 1-3 INCHES BELOW NORMAL SINCE
SEPTEMBER 1ST. SO WE/RE HESITANT TO HOIST AN AREAL FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. BUT THE RISK FOR POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE BEAUFORT AND SAVANNAH METRO
AREAS WITH THE MID MOORING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 230021
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
721 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MEANDER OFF THE SE COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOVING
AWAY AND ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING AND RADAR INDICATES AN INCREASE IN LIGHT RAIN COVERAGE
ACROSS SE GEORGIA. THE DEEP LAYERED ATMOSPHERE WAS INITIALLY
DRY AND SHOULD TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO MOISTEN UP. WE THINK SOME OF
THE ECHOES ON RADAR WERE NOT REACHING THE GROUND SPREADING INTO
SE SOUTH CAROLINA BUT A FEW SPOTS ACROSS S GEORGIA HAD INDEED
REPORTED SOME LIGHT RAIN IN TRACE AMOUNTS AS OF 6 PM. WE UPDATED
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT EARLIER IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT...THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PUMP IN PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ATOP THE COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WITH
PWATS INCREASING TO ABOUT 1.5-2 INCHES BY DAYBREAK...HIGHEST OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LATEST THINKING IS THAT RAIN WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT REALLY RAMPS UP...GENERALLY
SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST SC LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME INDICATION IN THE MODELS THAT THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE
RAIN BETWEEN THE INITIAL SHOT OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THE
MORE WIDESPREAD STEADIER RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER.
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATE RAINFALL WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY WE DO
NOT EXPECT ANY FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD /OFFICIALLY
ENDING AT 6 AM/. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK OVER LAND WITH THE
LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE AND THUS WE THINK THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE GEORGIA
ATLANTIC WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING ALONG THE GA COAST. LOWS
SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NORTH AND WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING BEFORE THE CLOUDS
INCREASE...TO MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH AND EAST...WITH LOWER 60S
OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. NOT EXPECTING A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AS
LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BEFORE THE
CLOUDS/WARM ADVECTION INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...AN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT ADVANCES QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE TN VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGER SCALE TROUGH IN THE GREAT
PLAINS AND A 110 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET THAT DIVES INTO THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH. THIS IN TURN WILL TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS ALONG AN
INITIAL COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT DEEPENS AND HEADS
RAPIDLY EAST/NE THROUGH THE DAY TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS IT WILL DRAW A WARM FRONT STEADILY NORTH AS IT
REACHES ACROSS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND TOWARD THE SC COAST BY AROUND
15Z...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM US-17 IN SC TO I-16 IN SE GA BY
18Z...AND PROGRESSING NORTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
NIGHTFALL.

HERE ARE THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...

PRECIPITATION...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A MID
LEVEL IMPULSE THAT ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH/SW EARLY IN THE DAY...SOME
AFTERNOON HEIGHTS FALLS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE AND
APPROACHING WARM FRONT...AIDED BY SOME HINTS OF 700-500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS...PWATS NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE...ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON VARIOUS LEVELS AND A 35-45 KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS. THE
TROPOSPHERE IS FULLY SATURATED AS A RESULT AND WE HAVE CONTINUED THE
IDEA OF 100 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
BULLS-EYE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE EARLY-MID ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES...ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS FOR MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AS A PSEUDO DRY-TONGUE TRIES TO PUSH NORTH IN WAKE OF THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSING WARM FRONT. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND
THERE COULD BE AT LEAST FLASH FLOOD ADVISORIES OR PERHAPS EVEN A
COUPLE OF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS DURING THE MID-MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND HEAVY
RAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. A
GLANCE AT THE DAILY PRECIP RECORDS SUGGEST THAT KCHS HAS A GOOD SHOT
OF SETTING A NEW RECORD...AND WE COULD BE CLOSE AT KCXM AND KSAV
ALSO GIVEN MAV MOS GUIDANCE 12 HOURS QPF OF 2 INCHES OF GREATER. SEE
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

SEVERE WEATHER...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR
COASTAL WATERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE THIS TRANSITIONS ONSHORE
AND INLAND IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. DESPITE THE
NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVE FEATURE...THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL
TO THE WEST/NW AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS AWAY TO THE NW AWAY
FROM THE FROM RICH INFLUX OF MOISTURE. PLUS WE HAVE A CONSTANT FEED
OF MARITIME AIR WITH A SE SYNOPTIC FLOW THAT VEERS TO THE SOUTH
LATE. THIS ALONG WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND LOW LFC/S THERE
CERTAINLY DOES REMAIN A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN
VGP AND SHERBS3 VALUES CLOSE TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A SLIGHTLY
BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY COME CLOSER TO EVENING WHEN WE/RE
SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE FLOW VEERS FURTHER. THIS IS
DISCUSSED IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT SECTION.

TEMPS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING OF THE UPCOMING WARM
FRONT...AND FIGURE ON A FAIRLY DECENT RANGE FROM NORTH/NW TO
SOUTH/SE AND AWAY FROM THE COAST. FOR NOW WE HAVE A CONSERVATIVE
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S NORTH/NW TO LOWER 70S SOUTH/SE...BUT
THIS MAY NEED FURTHER REFINEMENTS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES AS
EVEN WARMER AIR WILL BE LURKING JUST TO THE SOUTH.

SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST REGION WILL LIE
SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT PULLS FAR TO THE
NORTH. A TAIL OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY
THROUGH IN THE EVENING TO OFF THE COAST BY 06Z. ON ITS HEELS IS A
120 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET THAT ORIENTS ITSELF EAST/NE TO WEST/SW
ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THIS POSITION
WE/RE WITHIN THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET WHICH SUGGESTS
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE RATHER THAN
DIVERGENCE/DIFLUENCE. PLUS THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF CINH THAT
DEVELOPS AND LAPSE RATES OVERALL REMAIN POOR...ESPECIALLY INT HE
LOWER LEVELS WHERE A SUBTLE INVERSION FORMS. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY
SEVERE THREAT IN CHECK...BUT A CONTINUATION OF LOW LFC LEVELS AND
HIGH SHEAR STILL SUPPORTS A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THAT MAY
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A DECAYING SQUALL LINE DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY WANE FROM SOUTH/SW TO
NORTH/NE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE EXTREME WETNESS FROM ALL
THE RAIN AND SOME INDICATIONS OF STRATUS BUILD-DOWN AND MAYBE EVEN A
LITTLE SEA FOG THROWN INTO THE MIX WE/LL SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...DESPITE THE STRONG WIND FIELDS. PROBABLY THESE WINDS
ARE TOO HIGH FOR DENSE FOG...BUT WE/LL MAINTAIN A CLOSE WEATHER
WATCH TO BE SURE. TEMPS WON/T BUDGE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE INHIBITED BY THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
FULL SATURATION THAT OCCURS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM AN INTENSE
SURFACE CYCLONE AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT SEPARATED
FROM THE PARENT SYSTEM...AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EAST/SE PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH. FRONTAL PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW AS A RESULT...LIKELY NOT
OCCURRING UNTIL THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE AMOUNT AND POSITIONING OF CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN A
DEEP BAND OF MOISTURE...LIKELY OVER OUR EASTERNMOST SECTIONS WE HAVE
MAINTAINED 30-40 POP SCHEME...GREATEST NEAR THE COASTAL CORRIDOR.
WHILE THERE CAN STILL BE SOME T-STORMS WITHIN A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ANY SEVERE RISK SEEMS CLOSE TO...IF NOT ZERO. TEMPS
WILL BE FAR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AT RECORD
LEVELS WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE PARALLEL GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAS PERFORMED WELL OF LATE AND IS
SUGGESTING THAT WE COULD FLIRT WITH THE RECORD HIGHS. THIS IS ALSO
IN LINE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FORECAST. FOR NOW WE HAVE SHOWN
UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE AND CAN ALWAYS ADJUST HIGHER LATER
IN NECESSARY. THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
AFTER SUNSET...BUT CLOUD COVER MIGHT BE SLOW IN ERODING. BUT THAT
SHOULD BE OFFSET BY MODEST COOL ADVECTION WHICH WILL EQUATE TO TEMPS
SOME 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER
NOT FAR OFF THE SE COAST...STILL STUCK WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
WITHIN A HUGE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE NATION. WHILE IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH INTO THE ATLANTIC TO KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED RAINS OFFSHORE...THE FLOW BACKS A LITTLE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT MAY PULL MOISTURE BACK A LITTLE MORE TOWARD
SHORE LATE IN THE DAY. AT PRESENT WE HAVE 20-40 POPS FROM NW TO SE.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS AND THE LACK OF
ANY WARM ADVECTION...AND SOME 15 DEGREES OR MORE COOLER THAN ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AXIS OF A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY SWEEP TOWARD THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT ENERGY HELPING TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MEANDERING OFFSHORE FRONT. THERE
REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST/NW
AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL MAKE IT. THIS WILL HAVE HUGE IMPLICATIONS
ON THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THE RESULTING LOW SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EVENTUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. A NOTABLE COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUPPRESSED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS...THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT BUT MEASURABLE
RAINS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY MORNING NEARING
DAYBREAK...THE RISK FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS
AND A PERIOD OF LLWS WILL INCREASE. THE 18Z NAMM INDICATES A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS PRIOR TO AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
LIFT DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. THE LLWS RISK APPEARS TO BE IN
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS BUT SINCE THIS IS AFTER DAYBREAK WE
HELD OFF ON MENTIONS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAIN LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL
LAPSE RATES AND STABILITY. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES.

KSAV...THE RAINS MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT AND SHOULD INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AS THE SURFACE FLOW REMAINS EAST WHILE THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS SE LATER SUNDAY MORNING AND INCREASES
TO 40 KT OR GREATER. BETWEEN 11Z-17Z...THE COMBINATION OF
DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR APPEARS ENOUGH FOR PREVAILING LLWS IN THE
TAF. OTHERWISE...INCLEMENT WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN HEAVY AT
TIMES DURING THE MORNING. IFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT TIMES.
AFTER MID AFTERNOON...CIGS COULD LIFT TO LOW-END MVFR...BUT THIS
IS DEPENDENT ON PCPN BECOMING MORE SCATTERED WHICH MOST MODELS
INDICATE WILL OCCUR AFTER 19Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS AND GRADUALLY LOWER CEILINGS
AND POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. IT/LL ALSO BE BREEZY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH A RISK OF WIND SHEAR SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL A COLD
FRONT PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
INLAND WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE COASTAL FRONT EVENTUALLY
MERGES WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...DESPITE LESS THAN PERFECT MIXING
PROFILES IN THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN 15-20 KT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 20-25 KT WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM WHERE WARMER WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A BIT MORE MIXING. SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE 3-6 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG AND ELONGATED RIDGE OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED EAST-WEST AND NORTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE PULLING FURTHER EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS ALLOWS FOR A WARM FRONT HUNG UP TO THE
EAST OF THE COOLER SHELF WATERS SUNDAY MORNING TO GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTH/NW IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
MARINE AREA DURING THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES
ONSHORE. A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN
AS THE WARM FRONT HEADS FURTHER NORTH/NW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER FROM EAST AROUND TO THE
SE SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING AND FINALLY TO THE SW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRAVERSE THE WATERS
AND DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO LIMIT MIXING...THIS STILL
SUPPORTS SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WE HAVE TOYED WITH THE IDEA
OF A GALE WATCH...BUT GIVEN MARINE-LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN A REGIME
WHERE TEMPS OF THE WATER ARE SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE AIR
TEMPS AND GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS AT 1000 MB ARE NO MORE THAN AROUND
35 KT...THIS POSSIBILITY IS TOO LOW TO CONSIDER AT PRESENT. MAYBE
FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS AT SOME POINT GALES MIGHT BE REQUIRED SINCE
THEIR WATERS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S AND LESS IMPACTED
BY MARINE-LAYERING INFLUENCES. MARINERS SHOULD ALSO BE PREPARED FOR
STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED T-STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
MAY BE NECESSARY.

GIVEN SOME 6-8 FOOTERS WITHIN A 0-20 NM WATERS THERE COULD BE SOME
BREAKERS APPROACHING 4 OR 5 FEET AT THE BEACHES. IF THIS COMES TO
FRUITION WE MIGHT NEED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT A LATER TIMES. FOR
NOW WE/LL ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF SEA FOG GIVEN THE
WARMER AIR ACROSS THE NOTICEABLY COOLER SHELF WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE PROBABLY TOO STRONG FOR THIS...BUT GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS WE HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY
FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT
AWAY FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY HOW
THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS...ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IS
HIGHLY CERTAIN. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.75-2 INCHES COUPLED WITH
GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE PERIOD. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS
FALLING ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE/RE STILL BELOW THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE HOWEVER SINCE WE/RE 1-3 INCHES BELOW NORMAL SINCE
SEPTEMBER 1ST. SO WE/RE HESITANT TO HOIST AN AREAL FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. BUT THE RISK FOR POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE BEAUFORT AND SAVANNAH METRO
AREAS WITH THE MID MOORING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS62 KFFC 230020
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
720 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS
SHIFTING EAST BUT STILL RIDGING IN PLACE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL SEE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT INITIALLY BUT THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH
BASICALLY A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CWA. FINALLY THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN PUSHING SOME OF THE SYSTEM
OUT OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. MUCAPE
VALUES REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH IS PRETTY DECENT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. GFS SHOWS 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME VALUES EXCEEDING 50KTS.
THE NAM MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SO IF THE NAM OR GFS
VALUES ARE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY HAVE DECENT SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-
300J/KG BUT LESS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA. LOOKING AT THE LOCAL
WRF...IT IMPLIES WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNRISE...THEN
POTENTIALLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIP...THEN MORE CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH.

BESIDES SEVERE...HYDROLOGY IS THE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM. SEE
THE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN. WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS GA. FOR SUNDAY...BIG DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. MET IS MUCH COLDER AND KEEPS AREA CLOUDY
WHILE THE MAV IS WARMER AND TRIES TO PUSH CLOUDS OUT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT THINK IT
WOULD BE LIMITED SO STAYED IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE.

11

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING RAPIDLY LEAVING A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT DRY AIR WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ENDING THE PRECIP. THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD AS
WELL AS GENERATE ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EXIT THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR
SPREADS OVER THE CWA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM.

17

HYDROLOGY...
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA WITH AROUND 2-2.5 ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE GROUND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS MUCH PRECIP. EVEN SO WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALREADY ACROSS CSG AND MCN THIS EVENING.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DEGRADE AS THE RAIN AND MOISTURE
PUSHES NORTHWARD...AND ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE IFR BY
06-08Z. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. TS POTENTIAL HIGHEST ACROSS MCN AND CSG
AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE ATL AREA TAFS AT THIS TIME. EAST
WINDS WILL BE 08-12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...THEN SHIFT TO THE SE
SUNDAY EVENING THEN SW SUNDAY NIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  55  53  68 /  90 100  70  20
ATLANTA         46  57  54  66 /  90 100  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     40  54  47  61 /  70 100  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    44  57  51  64 /  80 100  50  10
COLUMBUS        52  65  59  70 / 100 100  40  10
GAINESVILLE     44  54  49  64 /  90 100  60  10
MACON           53  66  61  73 / 100 100  60  20
ROME            44  58  53  63 /  80 100  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  47  58  54  67 / 100 100  40  10
VIDALIA         56  71  65  75 / 100 100  80  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31



000
FXUS62 KFFC 230020
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
720 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS
SHIFTING EAST BUT STILL RIDGING IN PLACE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL SEE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT INITIALLY BUT THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH
BASICALLY A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CWA. FINALLY THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN PUSHING SOME OF THE SYSTEM
OUT OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. MUCAPE
VALUES REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH IS PRETTY DECENT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. GFS SHOWS 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME VALUES EXCEEDING 50KTS.
THE NAM MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SO IF THE NAM OR GFS
VALUES ARE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY HAVE DECENT SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-
300J/KG BUT LESS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA. LOOKING AT THE LOCAL
WRF...IT IMPLIES WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNRISE...THEN
POTENTIALLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIP...THEN MORE CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH.

BESIDES SEVERE...HYDROLOGY IS THE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM. SEE
THE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN. WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS GA. FOR SUNDAY...BIG DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. MET IS MUCH COLDER AND KEEPS AREA CLOUDY
WHILE THE MAV IS WARMER AND TRIES TO PUSH CLOUDS OUT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT THINK IT
WOULD BE LIMITED SO STAYED IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE.

11

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING RAPIDLY LEAVING A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT DRY AIR WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ENDING THE PRECIP. THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD AS
WELL AS GENERATE ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EXIT THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR
SPREADS OVER THE CWA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM.

17

HYDROLOGY...
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA WITH AROUND 2-2.5 ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE GROUND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS MUCH PRECIP. EVEN SO WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALREADY ACROSS CSG AND MCN THIS EVENING.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DEGRADE AS THE RAIN AND MOISTURE
PUSHES NORTHWARD...AND ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE IFR BY
06-08Z. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. TS POTENTIAL HIGHEST ACROSS MCN AND CSG
AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE ATL AREA TAFS AT THIS TIME. EAST
WINDS WILL BE 08-12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...THEN SHIFT TO THE SE
SUNDAY EVENING THEN SW SUNDAY NIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  55  53  68 /  90 100  70  20
ATLANTA         46  57  54  66 /  90 100  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     40  54  47  61 /  70 100  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    44  57  51  64 /  80 100  50  10
COLUMBUS        52  65  59  70 / 100 100  40  10
GAINESVILLE     44  54  49  64 /  90 100  60  10
MACON           53  66  61  73 / 100 100  60  20
ROME            44  58  53  63 /  80 100  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  47  58  54  67 / 100 100  40  10
VIDALIA         56  71  65  75 / 100 100  80  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KCAE 222351
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE
START OFF DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...SO HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE SLIGHTLY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY TOWARDS MORNING.
FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND AROUND 40 ACROSS
THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS PUSHING INTO THE REGION BY 12Z.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM
THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACHING WARM
FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL FOG IN THE EAST... WITH
THE LARGEST IMPACT ON OGB. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS STILL LOW HOWEVER THERE SEEMS TO BE AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS THAT FOG WILL FORM AROUND 06Z AND POSSIBLY SPREAD INTO THE
COLUMBIA AREA BY 09Z.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK
SURFACE WEDGE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN INTO
MVFR/IFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. RAINFALL WILL AID IN DETERIORATING
THE CONDITIONS EVEN MORE TOWARDS MORNING...WITH LIFR BECOMING
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AT ALL SITES. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS TO FORM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 222351
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE
START OFF DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...SO HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE SLIGHTLY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY TOWARDS MORNING.
FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND AROUND 40 ACROSS
THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS PUSHING INTO THE REGION BY 12Z.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM
THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACHING WARM
FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL FOG IN THE EAST... WITH
THE LARGEST IMPACT ON OGB. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS STILL LOW HOWEVER THERE SEEMS TO BE AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS THAT FOG WILL FORM AROUND 06Z AND POSSIBLY SPREAD INTO THE
COLUMBIA AREA BY 09Z.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK
SURFACE WEDGE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN INTO
MVFR/IFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. RAINFALL WILL AID IN DETERIORATING
THE CONDITIONS EVEN MORE TOWARDS MORNING...WITH LIFR BECOMING
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AT ALL SITES. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS TO FORM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 222351
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE
START OFF DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...SO HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE SLIGHTLY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY TOWARDS MORNING.
FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND AROUND 40 ACROSS
THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS PUSHING INTO THE REGION BY 12Z.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM
THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACHING WARM
FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL FOG IN THE EAST... WITH
THE LARGEST IMPACT ON OGB. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS STILL LOW HOWEVER THERE SEEMS TO BE AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS THAT FOG WILL FORM AROUND 06Z AND POSSIBLY SPREAD INTO THE
COLUMBIA AREA BY 09Z.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK
SURFACE WEDGE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN INTO
MVFR/IFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. RAINFALL WILL AID IN DETERIORATING
THE CONDITIONS EVEN MORE TOWARDS MORNING...WITH LIFR BECOMING
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AT ALL SITES. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS TO FORM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 222351
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE
START OFF DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...SO HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE SLIGHTLY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY TOWARDS MORNING.
FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND AROUND 40 ACROSS
THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS PUSHING INTO THE REGION BY 12Z.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM
THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACHING WARM
FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL FOG IN THE EAST... WITH
THE LARGEST IMPACT ON OGB. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS STILL LOW HOWEVER THERE SEEMS TO BE AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS THAT FOG WILL FORM AROUND 06Z AND POSSIBLY SPREAD INTO THE
COLUMBIA AREA BY 09Z.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK
SURFACE WEDGE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN INTO
MVFR/IFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. RAINFALL WILL AID IN DETERIORATING
THE CONDITIONS EVEN MORE TOWARDS MORNING...WITH LIFR BECOMING
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AT ALL SITES. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS TO FORM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 222117
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
417 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MEANDER OFF THE SE COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOVING
AWAY AND ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND NEAR 60
ALONG THE GA COAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WILL
BE BREAKING DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS
WELL TO THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST LINKS UP TO A COASTAL TROUGH NEAR THE SC/GA COASTS. THE
INCREASING LOW- LEVEL JET WILL PUMP IN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA ATOP THE COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WITH PWATS INCREASING
TO ABOUT 1.5-2 INCHES BY DAYBREAK...HIGHEST OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. LATEST THINKING IS THAT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK OUT
TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THIS EVENING AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
REALLY RAMPS UP...GENERALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST SC
THROUGH DAYBREAK. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE MODELS THAT
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE RAIN BETWEEN THE INITIAL SHOT OF
STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THE MORE WIDESPREAD STEADIER RAIN
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATE
RAINFALL WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLOODING
ISSUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD /OFFICIALLY ENDING AT 6 AM/.
INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK OVER LAND WITH THE LINGERING HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE AND THUS WE THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE GEORGIA ATLANTIC
WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING ALONG THE GA COAST. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 NORTH AND WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING THIS EVENING BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE...TO MID TO UPPER
50S SOUTH AND EAST...WITH LOWER 60S OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. NOT
EXPECTING A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AS LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BEFORE THE CLOUDS/WARM ADVECTION
INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...AN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT ADVANCES QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE TN VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGER SCALE TROUGH IN THE GREAT
PLAINS AND A 110 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET THAT DIVES INTO THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH. THIS IN TURN WILL TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS ALONG AN
INITIAL COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT DEEPENS AND HEADS
RAPIDLY EAST/NE THROUGH THE DAY TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS IT WILL DRAW A WARM FRONT STEADILY NORTH AS IT
REACHES ACROSS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND TOWARD THE SC COAST BY AROUND
15Z...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM US-17 IN SC TO I-16 IN SE GA BY
18Z...AND PROGRESSING NORTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
NIGHTFALL.

HERE ARE THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...

PRECIPITATION...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A MID
LEVEL IMPULSE THAT ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH/SW EARLY IN THE DAY...SOME
AFTERNOON HEIGHTS FALLS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE AND
APPROACHING WARM FRONT...AIDED BY SOME HINTS OF 700-500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS...PWATS NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE...ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON VARIOUS LEVELS AND A 35-45 KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS. THE
TROPOSPHERE IS FULLY SATURATED AS A RESULT AND WE HAVE CONTINUED THE
IDEA OF 100 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
BULLS-EYE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE EARLY-MID ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES...ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS FOR MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AS A PSEUDO DRY-TONGUE TRIES TO PUSH NORTH IN WAKE OF THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSING WARM FRONT. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND
THERE COULD BE AT LEAST FLASH FLOOD ADVISORIES OR PERHAPS EVEN A
COUPLE OF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS DURING THE MID-MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND HEAVY
RAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. A
GLANCE AT THE DAILY PRECIP RECORDS SUGGEST THAT KCHS HAS A GOOD SHOT
OF SETTING A NEW RECORD...AND WE COULD BE CLOSE AT KCXM AND KSAV
ALSO GIVEN MAV MOS GUIDANCE 12 HOURS QPF OF 2 INCHES OF GREATER. SEE
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

SEVERE WEATHER...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR
COASTAL WATERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE THIS TRANSITIONS ONSHORE
AND INLAND IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. DESPITE THE
NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVE FEATURE...THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL
TO THE WEST/NW AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS AWAY TO THE NW AWAY
FROM THE FROM RICH INFLUX OF MOISTURE. PLUS WE HAVE A CONSTANT FEED
OF MARITIME AIR WITH A SE SYNOPTIC FLOW THAT VEERS TO THE SOUTH
LATE. THIS ALONG WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND LOW LFC/S THERE
CERTAINLY DOES REMAIN A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN
VGP AND SHERBS3 VALUES CLOSE TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A SLIGHTLY
BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY COME CLOSER TO EVENING WHEN WE/RE
SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE FLOW VEERS FURTHER. THIS IS
DISCUSSED IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT SECTION.

TEMPS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING OF THE UPCOMING WARM
FRONT...AND FIGURE ON A FAIRLY DECENT RANGE FROM NORTH/NW TO
SOUTH/SE AND AWAY FROM THE COAST. FOR NOW WE HAVE A CONSERVATIVE
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S NORTH/NW TO LOWER 70S SOUTH/SE...BUT
THIS MAY NEED FURTHER REFINEMENTS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES AS
EVEN WARMER AIR WILL BE LURKING JUST TO THE SOUTH.

SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST REGION WILL LIE
SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT PULLS FAR TO THE
NORTH. A TAIL OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY
THROUGH IN THE EVENING TO OFF THE COAST BY 06Z. ON ITS HEELS IS A
120 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET THAT ORIENTS ITSELF EAST/NE TO WEST/SW
ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THIS POSITION
WE/RE WITHIN THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET WHICH SUGGESTS
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE RATHER THAN
DIVERGENCE/DIFLUENCE. PLUS THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF CINH THAT
DEVELOPS AND LAPSE RATES OVERALL REMAIN POOR...ESPECIALLY INT HE
LOWER LEVELS WHERE A SUBTLE INVERSION FORMS. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY
SEVERE THREAT IN CHECK...BUT A CONTINUATION OF LOW LFC LEVELS AND
HIGH SHEAR STILL SUPPORTS A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THAT MAY
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A DECAYING SQUALL LINE DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY WANE FROM SOUTH/SW TO
NORTH/NE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE EXTREME WETNESS FROM ALL
THE RAIN AND SOME INDICATIONS OF STRATUS BUILD-DOWN AND MAYBE EVEN A
LITTLE SEA FOG THROWN INTO THE MIX WE/LL SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...DESPITE THE STRONG WIND FIELDS. PROBABLY THESE WINDS
ARE TOO HIGH FOR DENSE FOG...BUT WE/LL MAINTAIN A CLOSE WEATHER
WATCH TO BE SURE. TEMPS WON/T BUDGE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE INHIBITED BY THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
FULL SATURATION THAT OCCURS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM AN INTENSE
SURFACE CYCLONE AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT SEPARATED
FROM THE PARENT SYSTEM...AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EAST/SE PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH. FRONTAL PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW AS A RESULT...LIKELY NOT
OCCURRING UNTIL THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE AMOUNT AND POSITIONING OF CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN A
DEEP BAND OF MOISTURE...LIKELY OVER OUR EASTERNMOST SECTIONS WE HAVE
MAINTAINED 30-40 POP SCHEME...GREATEST NEAR THE COASTAL CORRIDOR.
WHILE THERE CAN STILL BE SOME T-STORMS WITHIN A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ANY SEVERE RISK SEEMS CLOSE TO...IF NOT ZERO. TEMPS
WILL BE FAR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AT RECORD
LEVELS WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE PARALLEL GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAS PERFORMED WELL OF LATE AND IS
SUGGESTING THAT WE COULD FLIRT WITH THE RECORD HIGHS. THIS IS ALSO
IN LINE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FORECAST. FOR NOW WE HAVE SHOWN
UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE AND CAN ALWAYS ADJUST HIGHER LATER
IN NECESSARY. THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
AFTER SUNSET...BUT CLOUD COVER MIGHT BE SLOW IN ERODING. BUT THAT
SHOULD BE OFFSET BY MODEST COOL ADVECTION WHICH WILL EQUATE TO TEMPS
SOME 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER
NOT FAR OFF THE SE COAST...STILL STUCK WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
WITHIN A HUGE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE NATION. WHILE IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH INTO THE ATLANTIC TO KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED RAINS OFFSHORE...THE FLOW BACKS A LITTLE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT MAY PULL MOISTURE BACK A LITTLE MORE TOWARD
SHORE LATE IN THE DAY. AT PRESENT WE HAVE 20-40 POPS FROM NW TO SE.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS AND THE LACK OF
ANY WARM ADVECTION...AND SOME 15 DEGREES OR MORE COOLER THAN ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AXIS OF A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY SWEEP TOWARD THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT ENERGY HELPING TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MEANDERING OFFSHORE FRONT. THERE
REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST/NW
AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL MAKE IT. THIS WILL HAVE HUGE IMPLICATIONS
ON THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THE RESULTING LOW SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EVENTUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. A NOTABLE COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUPPRESSED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE GOING DOWNHILL TONIGHT AT THE TERMS AS DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA. CLOUDS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS
LIKELY STARTING AROUND 06Z AT KSAV AND AROUND 12Z AT KCHS. CIGS
WILL THEN CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR OR WORSE WITH THE RAIN BECOMING
STEADIER/HEAVIER. VSBYS WILL ALSO DROP...POSSIBLY DUE TO LOWERING
STRATUS AT FIRST...THEN HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD ALSO BE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR MAINLY AFTER 12Z AS 2K FT WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
35-40 KT AND VEER SLIGHTLY AS THE LOW- LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH
TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO
OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS AND GRADUALLY LOWER CEILINGS AND
POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. IT/LL ALSO BE BREEZY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A
RISK OF WIND SHEAR SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT PULLS FARTHER
OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
INLAND WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE COASTAL FRONT EVENTUALLY
MERGES WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...DESPITE LESS THAN PERFECT MIXING
PROFILES IN THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN 15-20 KT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 20-25 KT WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM WHERE WARMER WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A BIT MORE MIXING. SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE 3-6 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG AND ELONGATED RIDGE OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED EAST-WEST AND NORTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE PULLING FURTHER EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS ALLOWS FOR A WARM FRONT HUNG UP TO THE
EAST OF THE COOLER SHELF WATERS SUNDAY MORNING TO GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTH/NW IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
MARINE AREA DURING THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES
ONSHORE. A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN
AS THE WARM FRONT HEADS FURTHER NORTH/NW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER FROM EAST AROUND TO THE
SE SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING AND FINALLY TO THE SW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRAVERSE THE WATERS
AND DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO LIMIT MIXING...THIS STILL
SUPPORTS SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WE HAVE TOYED WITH THE IDEA
OF A GALE WATCH...BUT GIVEN MARINE-LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN A REGIME
WHERE TEMPS OF THE WATER ARE SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE AIR
TEMPS AND GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS AT 1000 MB ARE NO MORE THAN AROUND
35 KT...THIS POSSIBILITY IS TOO LOW TO CONSIDER AT PRESENT. MAYBE
FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS AT SOME POINT GALES MIGHT BE REQUIRED SINCE
THEIR WATERS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S AND LESS IMPACTED
BY MARINE-LAYERING INFLUENCES. MARINERS SHOULD ALSO BE PREPARED FOR
STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED T-STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
MAY BE NECESSARY.

GIVEN SOME 6-8 FOOTERS WITHIN A 0-20 NM WATERS THERE COULD BE SOME
BREAKERS APPROACHING 4 OR 5 FEET AT THE BEACHES. IF THIS COMES TO
FRUITION WE MIGHT NEED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT A LATER TIMES. FOR
NOW WE/LL ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF SEA FOG GIVEN THE
WARMER AIR ACROSS THE NOTICEABLY COOLER SHELF WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE PROBABLY TOO STRONG FOR THIS...BUT GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS WE HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY
FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT
AWAY FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY HOW
THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS...ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IS
HIGHLY CERTAIN. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.75-2 INCHES COUPLED WITH
GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE PERIOD. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS
FALLING ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE/RE STILL BELOW THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE HOWEVER SINCE WE/RE 1-3 INCHES BELOW NORMAL SINCE
SEPTEMBER 1ST. SO WE/RE HESITANT TO HOIST AN AREAL FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. BUT THE RISK FOR POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE BEAUFORT AND SAVANNAH METRO
AREAS WITH THE MID MOORING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 222117
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
417 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MEANDER OFF THE SE COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOVING
AWAY AND ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND NEAR 60
ALONG THE GA COAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WILL
BE BREAKING DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS
WELL TO THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST LINKS UP TO A COASTAL TROUGH NEAR THE SC/GA COASTS. THE
INCREASING LOW- LEVEL JET WILL PUMP IN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA ATOP THE COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WITH PWATS INCREASING
TO ABOUT 1.5-2 INCHES BY DAYBREAK...HIGHEST OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. LATEST THINKING IS THAT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK OUT
TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THIS EVENING AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
REALLY RAMPS UP...GENERALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST SC
THROUGH DAYBREAK. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE MODELS THAT
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE RAIN BETWEEN THE INITIAL SHOT OF
STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THE MORE WIDESPREAD STEADIER RAIN
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATE
RAINFALL WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLOODING
ISSUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD /OFFICIALLY ENDING AT 6 AM/.
INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK OVER LAND WITH THE LINGERING HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE AND THUS WE THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE GEORGIA ATLANTIC
WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING ALONG THE GA COAST. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 NORTH AND WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING THIS EVENING BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE...TO MID TO UPPER
50S SOUTH AND EAST...WITH LOWER 60S OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. NOT
EXPECTING A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AS LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BEFORE THE CLOUDS/WARM ADVECTION
INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...AN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT ADVANCES QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE TN VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGER SCALE TROUGH IN THE GREAT
PLAINS AND A 110 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET THAT DIVES INTO THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH. THIS IN TURN WILL TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS ALONG AN
INITIAL COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT DEEPENS AND HEADS
RAPIDLY EAST/NE THROUGH THE DAY TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS IT WILL DRAW A WARM FRONT STEADILY NORTH AS IT
REACHES ACROSS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND TOWARD THE SC COAST BY AROUND
15Z...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM US-17 IN SC TO I-16 IN SE GA BY
18Z...AND PROGRESSING NORTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
NIGHTFALL.

HERE ARE THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...

PRECIPITATION...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A MID
LEVEL IMPULSE THAT ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH/SW EARLY IN THE DAY...SOME
AFTERNOON HEIGHTS FALLS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE AND
APPROACHING WARM FRONT...AIDED BY SOME HINTS OF 700-500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS...PWATS NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE...ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON VARIOUS LEVELS AND A 35-45 KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS. THE
TROPOSPHERE IS FULLY SATURATED AS A RESULT AND WE HAVE CONTINUED THE
IDEA OF 100 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
BULLS-EYE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE EARLY-MID ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES...ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS FOR MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AS A PSEUDO DRY-TONGUE TRIES TO PUSH NORTH IN WAKE OF THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSING WARM FRONT. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND
THERE COULD BE AT LEAST FLASH FLOOD ADVISORIES OR PERHAPS EVEN A
COUPLE OF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS DURING THE MID-MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND HEAVY
RAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. A
GLANCE AT THE DAILY PRECIP RECORDS SUGGEST THAT KCHS HAS A GOOD SHOT
OF SETTING A NEW RECORD...AND WE COULD BE CLOSE AT KCXM AND KSAV
ALSO GIVEN MAV MOS GUIDANCE 12 HOURS QPF OF 2 INCHES OF GREATER. SEE
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

SEVERE WEATHER...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR
COASTAL WATERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE THIS TRANSITIONS ONSHORE
AND INLAND IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. DESPITE THE
NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVE FEATURE...THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL
TO THE WEST/NW AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS AWAY TO THE NW AWAY
FROM THE FROM RICH INFLUX OF MOISTURE. PLUS WE HAVE A CONSTANT FEED
OF MARITIME AIR WITH A SE SYNOPTIC FLOW THAT VEERS TO THE SOUTH
LATE. THIS ALONG WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND LOW LFC/S THERE
CERTAINLY DOES REMAIN A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN
VGP AND SHERBS3 VALUES CLOSE TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A SLIGHTLY
BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY COME CLOSER TO EVENING WHEN WE/RE
SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE FLOW VEERS FURTHER. THIS IS
DISCUSSED IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT SECTION.

TEMPS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING OF THE UPCOMING WARM
FRONT...AND FIGURE ON A FAIRLY DECENT RANGE FROM NORTH/NW TO
SOUTH/SE AND AWAY FROM THE COAST. FOR NOW WE HAVE A CONSERVATIVE
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S NORTH/NW TO LOWER 70S SOUTH/SE...BUT
THIS MAY NEED FURTHER REFINEMENTS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES AS
EVEN WARMER AIR WILL BE LURKING JUST TO THE SOUTH.

SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST REGION WILL LIE
SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT PULLS FAR TO THE
NORTH. A TAIL OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY
THROUGH IN THE EVENING TO OFF THE COAST BY 06Z. ON ITS HEELS IS A
120 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET THAT ORIENTS ITSELF EAST/NE TO WEST/SW
ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THIS POSITION
WE/RE WITHIN THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET WHICH SUGGESTS
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE RATHER THAN
DIVERGENCE/DIFLUENCE. PLUS THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF CINH THAT
DEVELOPS AND LAPSE RATES OVERALL REMAIN POOR...ESPECIALLY INT HE
LOWER LEVELS WHERE A SUBTLE INVERSION FORMS. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY
SEVERE THREAT IN CHECK...BUT A CONTINUATION OF LOW LFC LEVELS AND
HIGH SHEAR STILL SUPPORTS A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THAT MAY
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A DECAYING SQUALL LINE DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY WANE FROM SOUTH/SW TO
NORTH/NE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE EXTREME WETNESS FROM ALL
THE RAIN AND SOME INDICATIONS OF STRATUS BUILD-DOWN AND MAYBE EVEN A
LITTLE SEA FOG THROWN INTO THE MIX WE/LL SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...DESPITE THE STRONG WIND FIELDS. PROBABLY THESE WINDS
ARE TOO HIGH FOR DENSE FOG...BUT WE/LL MAINTAIN A CLOSE WEATHER
WATCH TO BE SURE. TEMPS WON/T BUDGE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE INHIBITED BY THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
FULL SATURATION THAT OCCURS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM AN INTENSE
SURFACE CYCLONE AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT SEPARATED
FROM THE PARENT SYSTEM...AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EAST/SE PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH. FRONTAL PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW AS A RESULT...LIKELY NOT
OCCURRING UNTIL THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE AMOUNT AND POSITIONING OF CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN A
DEEP BAND OF MOISTURE...LIKELY OVER OUR EASTERNMOST SECTIONS WE HAVE
MAINTAINED 30-40 POP SCHEME...GREATEST NEAR THE COASTAL CORRIDOR.
WHILE THERE CAN STILL BE SOME T-STORMS WITHIN A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ANY SEVERE RISK SEEMS CLOSE TO...IF NOT ZERO. TEMPS
WILL BE FAR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AT RECORD
LEVELS WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE PARALLEL GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAS PERFORMED WELL OF LATE AND IS
SUGGESTING THAT WE COULD FLIRT WITH THE RECORD HIGHS. THIS IS ALSO
IN LINE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FORECAST. FOR NOW WE HAVE SHOWN
UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE AND CAN ALWAYS ADJUST HIGHER LATER
IN NECESSARY. THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
AFTER SUNSET...BUT CLOUD COVER MIGHT BE SLOW IN ERODING. BUT THAT
SHOULD BE OFFSET BY MODEST COOL ADVECTION WHICH WILL EQUATE TO TEMPS
SOME 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER
NOT FAR OFF THE SE COAST...STILL STUCK WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
WITHIN A HUGE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE NATION. WHILE IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH INTO THE ATLANTIC TO KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED RAINS OFFSHORE...THE FLOW BACKS A LITTLE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT MAY PULL MOISTURE BACK A LITTLE MORE TOWARD
SHORE LATE IN THE DAY. AT PRESENT WE HAVE 20-40 POPS FROM NW TO SE.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS AND THE LACK OF
ANY WARM ADVECTION...AND SOME 15 DEGREES OR MORE COOLER THAN ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AXIS OF A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY SWEEP TOWARD THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT ENERGY HELPING TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MEANDERING OFFSHORE FRONT. THERE
REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST/NW
AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL MAKE IT. THIS WILL HAVE HUGE IMPLICATIONS
ON THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THE RESULTING LOW SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EVENTUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. A NOTABLE COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUPPRESSED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE GOING DOWNHILL TONIGHT AT THE TERMS AS DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA. CLOUDS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS
LIKELY STARTING AROUND 06Z AT KSAV AND AROUND 12Z AT KCHS. CIGS
WILL THEN CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR OR WORSE WITH THE RAIN BECOMING
STEADIER/HEAVIER. VSBYS WILL ALSO DROP...POSSIBLY DUE TO LOWERING
STRATUS AT FIRST...THEN HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD ALSO BE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR MAINLY AFTER 12Z AS 2K FT WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
35-40 KT AND VEER SLIGHTLY AS THE LOW- LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH
TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO
OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS AND GRADUALLY LOWER CEILINGS AND
POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. IT/LL ALSO BE BREEZY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A
RISK OF WIND SHEAR SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT PULLS FARTHER
OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
INLAND WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE COASTAL FRONT EVENTUALLY
MERGES WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...DESPITE LESS THAN PERFECT MIXING
PROFILES IN THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN 15-20 KT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 20-25 KT WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM WHERE WARMER WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A BIT MORE MIXING. SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE 3-6 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG AND ELONGATED RIDGE OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED EAST-WEST AND NORTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE PULLING FURTHER EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS ALLOWS FOR A WARM FRONT HUNG UP TO THE
EAST OF THE COOLER SHELF WATERS SUNDAY MORNING TO GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTH/NW IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
MARINE AREA DURING THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES
ONSHORE. A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN
AS THE WARM FRONT HEADS FURTHER NORTH/NW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER FROM EAST AROUND TO THE
SE SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING AND FINALLY TO THE SW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRAVERSE THE WATERS
AND DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO LIMIT MIXING...THIS STILL
SUPPORTS SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WE HAVE TOYED WITH THE IDEA
OF A GALE WATCH...BUT GIVEN MARINE-LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN A REGIME
WHERE TEMPS OF THE WATER ARE SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE AIR
TEMPS AND GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS AT 1000 MB ARE NO MORE THAN AROUND
35 KT...THIS POSSIBILITY IS TOO LOW TO CONSIDER AT PRESENT. MAYBE
FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS AT SOME POINT GALES MIGHT BE REQUIRED SINCE
THEIR WATERS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S AND LESS IMPACTED
BY MARINE-LAYERING INFLUENCES. MARINERS SHOULD ALSO BE PREPARED FOR
STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED T-STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
MAY BE NECESSARY.

GIVEN SOME 6-8 FOOTERS WITHIN A 0-20 NM WATERS THERE COULD BE SOME
BREAKERS APPROACHING 4 OR 5 FEET AT THE BEACHES. IF THIS COMES TO
FRUITION WE MIGHT NEED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT A LATER TIMES. FOR
NOW WE/LL ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF SEA FOG GIVEN THE
WARMER AIR ACROSS THE NOTICEABLY COOLER SHELF WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE PROBABLY TOO STRONG FOR THIS...BUT GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS WE HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY
FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT
AWAY FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY HOW
THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS...ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IS
HIGHLY CERTAIN. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.75-2 INCHES COUPLED WITH
GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE PERIOD. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS
FALLING ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE/RE STILL BELOW THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE HOWEVER SINCE WE/RE 1-3 INCHES BELOW NORMAL SINCE
SEPTEMBER 1ST. SO WE/RE HESITANT TO HOIST AN AREAL FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. BUT THE RISK FOR POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE BEAUFORT AND SAVANNAH METRO
AREAS WITH THE MID MOORING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 222117
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
417 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MEANDER OFF THE SE COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOVING
AWAY AND ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND NEAR 60
ALONG THE GA COAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WILL
BE BREAKING DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS
WELL TO THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST LINKS UP TO A COASTAL TROUGH NEAR THE SC/GA COASTS. THE
INCREASING LOW- LEVEL JET WILL PUMP IN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA ATOP THE COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WITH PWATS INCREASING
TO ABOUT 1.5-2 INCHES BY DAYBREAK...HIGHEST OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. LATEST THINKING IS THAT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK OUT
TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THIS EVENING AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
REALLY RAMPS UP...GENERALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST SC
THROUGH DAYBREAK. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE MODELS THAT
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE RAIN BETWEEN THE INITIAL SHOT OF
STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THE MORE WIDESPREAD STEADIER RAIN
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATE
RAINFALL WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLOODING
ISSUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD /OFFICIALLY ENDING AT 6 AM/.
INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK OVER LAND WITH THE LINGERING HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE AND THUS WE THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE GEORGIA ATLANTIC
WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING ALONG THE GA COAST. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 NORTH AND WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING THIS EVENING BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE...TO MID TO UPPER
50S SOUTH AND EAST...WITH LOWER 60S OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. NOT
EXPECTING A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AS LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BEFORE THE CLOUDS/WARM ADVECTION
INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...AN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT ADVANCES QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE TN VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGER SCALE TROUGH IN THE GREAT
PLAINS AND A 110 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET THAT DIVES INTO THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH. THIS IN TURN WILL TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS ALONG AN
INITIAL COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT DEEPENS AND HEADS
RAPIDLY EAST/NE THROUGH THE DAY TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS IT WILL DRAW A WARM FRONT STEADILY NORTH AS IT
REACHES ACROSS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND TOWARD THE SC COAST BY AROUND
15Z...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM US-17 IN SC TO I-16 IN SE GA BY
18Z...AND PROGRESSING NORTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
NIGHTFALL.

HERE ARE THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...

PRECIPITATION...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A MID
LEVEL IMPULSE THAT ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH/SW EARLY IN THE DAY...SOME
AFTERNOON HEIGHTS FALLS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE AND
APPROACHING WARM FRONT...AIDED BY SOME HINTS OF 700-500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS...PWATS NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE...ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON VARIOUS LEVELS AND A 35-45 KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS. THE
TROPOSPHERE IS FULLY SATURATED AS A RESULT AND WE HAVE CONTINUED THE
IDEA OF 100 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
BULLS-EYE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE EARLY-MID ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES...ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS FOR MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AS A PSEUDO DRY-TONGUE TRIES TO PUSH NORTH IN WAKE OF THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSING WARM FRONT. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND
THERE COULD BE AT LEAST FLASH FLOOD ADVISORIES OR PERHAPS EVEN A
COUPLE OF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS DURING THE MID-MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND HEAVY
RAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. A
GLANCE AT THE DAILY PRECIP RECORDS SUGGEST THAT KCHS HAS A GOOD SHOT
OF SETTING A NEW RECORD...AND WE COULD BE CLOSE AT KCXM AND KSAV
ALSO GIVEN MAV MOS GUIDANCE 12 HOURS QPF OF 2 INCHES OF GREATER. SEE
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

SEVERE WEATHER...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR
COASTAL WATERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE THIS TRANSITIONS ONSHORE
AND INLAND IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. DESPITE THE
NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVE FEATURE...THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL
TO THE WEST/NW AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS AWAY TO THE NW AWAY
FROM THE FROM RICH INFLUX OF MOISTURE. PLUS WE HAVE A CONSTANT FEED
OF MARITIME AIR WITH A SE SYNOPTIC FLOW THAT VEERS TO THE SOUTH
LATE. THIS ALONG WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND LOW LFC/S THERE
CERTAINLY DOES REMAIN A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN
VGP AND SHERBS3 VALUES CLOSE TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A SLIGHTLY
BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY COME CLOSER TO EVENING WHEN WE/RE
SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE FLOW VEERS FURTHER. THIS IS
DISCUSSED IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT SECTION.

TEMPS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING OF THE UPCOMING WARM
FRONT...AND FIGURE ON A FAIRLY DECENT RANGE FROM NORTH/NW TO
SOUTH/SE AND AWAY FROM THE COAST. FOR NOW WE HAVE A CONSERVATIVE
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S NORTH/NW TO LOWER 70S SOUTH/SE...BUT
THIS MAY NEED FURTHER REFINEMENTS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES AS
EVEN WARMER AIR WILL BE LURKING JUST TO THE SOUTH.

SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST REGION WILL LIE
SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT PULLS FAR TO THE
NORTH. A TAIL OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY
THROUGH IN THE EVENING TO OFF THE COAST BY 06Z. ON ITS HEELS IS A
120 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET THAT ORIENTS ITSELF EAST/NE TO WEST/SW
ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THIS POSITION
WE/RE WITHIN THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET WHICH SUGGESTS
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE RATHER THAN
DIVERGENCE/DIFLUENCE. PLUS THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF CINH THAT
DEVELOPS AND LAPSE RATES OVERALL REMAIN POOR...ESPECIALLY INT HE
LOWER LEVELS WHERE A SUBTLE INVERSION FORMS. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY
SEVERE THREAT IN CHECK...BUT A CONTINUATION OF LOW LFC LEVELS AND
HIGH SHEAR STILL SUPPORTS A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THAT MAY
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A DECAYING SQUALL LINE DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY WANE FROM SOUTH/SW TO
NORTH/NE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE EXTREME WETNESS FROM ALL
THE RAIN AND SOME INDICATIONS OF STRATUS BUILD-DOWN AND MAYBE EVEN A
LITTLE SEA FOG THROWN INTO THE MIX WE/LL SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...DESPITE THE STRONG WIND FIELDS. PROBABLY THESE WINDS
ARE TOO HIGH FOR DENSE FOG...BUT WE/LL MAINTAIN A CLOSE WEATHER
WATCH TO BE SURE. TEMPS WON/T BUDGE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE INHIBITED BY THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
FULL SATURATION THAT OCCURS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM AN INTENSE
SURFACE CYCLONE AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT SEPARATED
FROM THE PARENT SYSTEM...AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EAST/SE PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH. FRONTAL PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW AS A RESULT...LIKELY NOT
OCCURRING UNTIL THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE AMOUNT AND POSITIONING OF CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN A
DEEP BAND OF MOISTURE...LIKELY OVER OUR EASTERNMOST SECTIONS WE HAVE
MAINTAINED 30-40 POP SCHEME...GREATEST NEAR THE COASTAL CORRIDOR.
WHILE THERE CAN STILL BE SOME T-STORMS WITHIN A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ANY SEVERE RISK SEEMS CLOSE TO...IF NOT ZERO. TEMPS
WILL BE FAR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AT RECORD
LEVELS WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE PARALLEL GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAS PERFORMED WELL OF LATE AND IS
SUGGESTING THAT WE COULD FLIRT WITH THE RECORD HIGHS. THIS IS ALSO
IN LINE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FORECAST. FOR NOW WE HAVE SHOWN
UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE AND CAN ALWAYS ADJUST HIGHER LATER
IN NECESSARY. THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
AFTER SUNSET...BUT CLOUD COVER MIGHT BE SLOW IN ERODING. BUT THAT
SHOULD BE OFFSET BY MODEST COOL ADVECTION WHICH WILL EQUATE TO TEMPS
SOME 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER
NOT FAR OFF THE SE COAST...STILL STUCK WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
WITHIN A HUGE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE NATION. WHILE IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH INTO THE ATLANTIC TO KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED RAINS OFFSHORE...THE FLOW BACKS A LITTLE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT MAY PULL MOISTURE BACK A LITTLE MORE TOWARD
SHORE LATE IN THE DAY. AT PRESENT WE HAVE 20-40 POPS FROM NW TO SE.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS AND THE LACK OF
ANY WARM ADVECTION...AND SOME 15 DEGREES OR MORE COOLER THAN ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AXIS OF A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY SWEEP TOWARD THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT ENERGY HELPING TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MEANDERING OFFSHORE FRONT. THERE
REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST/NW
AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL MAKE IT. THIS WILL HAVE HUGE IMPLICATIONS
ON THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THE RESULTING LOW SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EVENTUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. A NOTABLE COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUPPRESSED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE GOING DOWNHILL TONIGHT AT THE TERMS AS DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA. CLOUDS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS
LIKELY STARTING AROUND 06Z AT KSAV AND AROUND 12Z AT KCHS. CIGS
WILL THEN CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR OR WORSE WITH THE RAIN BECOMING
STEADIER/HEAVIER. VSBYS WILL ALSO DROP...POSSIBLY DUE TO LOWERING
STRATUS AT FIRST...THEN HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD ALSO BE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR MAINLY AFTER 12Z AS 2K FT WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
35-40 KT AND VEER SLIGHTLY AS THE LOW- LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH
TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO
OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS AND GRADUALLY LOWER CEILINGS AND
POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. IT/LL ALSO BE BREEZY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A
RISK OF WIND SHEAR SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT PULLS FARTHER
OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
INLAND WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE COASTAL FRONT EVENTUALLY
MERGES WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...DESPITE LESS THAN PERFECT MIXING
PROFILES IN THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN 15-20 KT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 20-25 KT WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM WHERE WARMER WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A BIT MORE MIXING. SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE 3-6 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG AND ELONGATED RIDGE OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED EAST-WEST AND NORTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE PULLING FURTHER EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS ALLOWS FOR A WARM FRONT HUNG UP TO THE
EAST OF THE COOLER SHELF WATERS SUNDAY MORNING TO GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTH/NW IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
MARINE AREA DURING THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES
ONSHORE. A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN
AS THE WARM FRONT HEADS FURTHER NORTH/NW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER FROM EAST AROUND TO THE
SE SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING AND FINALLY TO THE SW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRAVERSE THE WATERS
AND DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO LIMIT MIXING...THIS STILL
SUPPORTS SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WE HAVE TOYED WITH THE IDEA
OF A GALE WATCH...BUT GIVEN MARINE-LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN A REGIME
WHERE TEMPS OF THE WATER ARE SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE AIR
TEMPS AND GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS AT 1000 MB ARE NO MORE THAN AROUND
35 KT...THIS POSSIBILITY IS TOO LOW TO CONSIDER AT PRESENT. MAYBE
FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS AT SOME POINT GALES MIGHT BE REQUIRED SINCE
THEIR WATERS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S AND LESS IMPACTED
BY MARINE-LAYERING INFLUENCES. MARINERS SHOULD ALSO BE PREPARED FOR
STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED T-STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
MAY BE NECESSARY.

GIVEN SOME 6-8 FOOTERS WITHIN A 0-20 NM WATERS THERE COULD BE SOME
BREAKERS APPROACHING 4 OR 5 FEET AT THE BEACHES. IF THIS COMES TO
FRUITION WE MIGHT NEED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT A LATER TIMES. FOR
NOW WE/LL ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF SEA FOG GIVEN THE
WARMER AIR ACROSS THE NOTICEABLY COOLER SHELF WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE PROBABLY TOO STRONG FOR THIS...BUT GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS WE HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY
FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT
AWAY FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY HOW
THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS...ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IS
HIGHLY CERTAIN. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.75-2 INCHES COUPLED WITH
GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE PERIOD. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS
FALLING ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE/RE STILL BELOW THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE HOWEVER SINCE WE/RE 1-3 INCHES BELOW NORMAL SINCE
SEPTEMBER 1ST. SO WE/RE HESITANT TO HOIST AN AREAL FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. BUT THE RISK FOR POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE BEAUFORT AND SAVANNAH METRO
AREAS WITH THE MID MOORING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 222117
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
417 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MEANDER OFF THE SE COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOVING
AWAY AND ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND NEAR 60
ALONG THE GA COAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WILL
BE BREAKING DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS
WELL TO THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST LINKS UP TO A COASTAL TROUGH NEAR THE SC/GA COASTS. THE
INCREASING LOW- LEVEL JET WILL PUMP IN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA ATOP THE COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WITH PWATS INCREASING
TO ABOUT 1.5-2 INCHES BY DAYBREAK...HIGHEST OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. LATEST THINKING IS THAT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK OUT
TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THIS EVENING AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
REALLY RAMPS UP...GENERALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST SC
THROUGH DAYBREAK. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE MODELS THAT
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE RAIN BETWEEN THE INITIAL SHOT OF
STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THE MORE WIDESPREAD STEADIER RAIN
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATE
RAINFALL WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLOODING
ISSUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD /OFFICIALLY ENDING AT 6 AM/.
INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK OVER LAND WITH THE LINGERING HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE AND THUS WE THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE GEORGIA ATLANTIC
WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING ALONG THE GA COAST. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 NORTH AND WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING THIS EVENING BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE...TO MID TO UPPER
50S SOUTH AND EAST...WITH LOWER 60S OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. NOT
EXPECTING A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AS LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BEFORE THE CLOUDS/WARM ADVECTION
INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...AN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT ADVANCES QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE TN VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGER SCALE TROUGH IN THE GREAT
PLAINS AND A 110 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET THAT DIVES INTO THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH. THIS IN TURN WILL TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS ALONG AN
INITIAL COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT DEEPENS AND HEADS
RAPIDLY EAST/NE THROUGH THE DAY TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS IT WILL DRAW A WARM FRONT STEADILY NORTH AS IT
REACHES ACROSS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND TOWARD THE SC COAST BY AROUND
15Z...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM US-17 IN SC TO I-16 IN SE GA BY
18Z...AND PROGRESSING NORTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
NIGHTFALL.

HERE ARE THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...

PRECIPITATION...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A MID
LEVEL IMPULSE THAT ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH/SW EARLY IN THE DAY...SOME
AFTERNOON HEIGHTS FALLS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE AND
APPROACHING WARM FRONT...AIDED BY SOME HINTS OF 700-500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS...PWATS NEAR OR GREATER THAN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE...ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON VARIOUS LEVELS AND A 35-45 KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS. THE
TROPOSPHERE IS FULLY SATURATED AS A RESULT AND WE HAVE CONTINUED THE
IDEA OF 100 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
BULLS-EYE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE EARLY-MID ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES...ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS FOR MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AS A PSEUDO DRY-TONGUE TRIES TO PUSH NORTH IN WAKE OF THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSING WARM FRONT. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND
THERE COULD BE AT LEAST FLASH FLOOD ADVISORIES OR PERHAPS EVEN A
COUPLE OF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS DURING THE MID-MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND HEAVY
RAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. A
GLANCE AT THE DAILY PRECIP RECORDS SUGGEST THAT KCHS HAS A GOOD SHOT
OF SETTING A NEW RECORD...AND WE COULD BE CLOSE AT KCXM AND KSAV
ALSO GIVEN MAV MOS GUIDANCE 12 HOURS QPF OF 2 INCHES OF GREATER. SEE
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

SEVERE WEATHER...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR
COASTAL WATERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE THIS TRANSITIONS ONSHORE
AND INLAND IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. DESPITE THE
NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVE FEATURE...THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL
TO THE WEST/NW AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS AWAY TO THE NW AWAY
FROM THE FROM RICH INFLUX OF MOISTURE. PLUS WE HAVE A CONSTANT FEED
OF MARITIME AIR WITH A SE SYNOPTIC FLOW THAT VEERS TO THE SOUTH
LATE. THIS ALONG WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND LOW LFC/S THERE
CERTAINLY DOES REMAIN A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN
VGP AND SHERBS3 VALUES CLOSE TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A SLIGHTLY
BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY COME CLOSER TO EVENING WHEN WE/RE
SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE FLOW VEERS FURTHER. THIS IS
DISCUSSED IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT SECTION.

TEMPS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING OF THE UPCOMING WARM
FRONT...AND FIGURE ON A FAIRLY DECENT RANGE FROM NORTH/NW TO
SOUTH/SE AND AWAY FROM THE COAST. FOR NOW WE HAVE A CONSERVATIVE
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S NORTH/NW TO LOWER 70S SOUTH/SE...BUT
THIS MAY NEED FURTHER REFINEMENTS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES AS
EVEN WARMER AIR WILL BE LURKING JUST TO THE SOUTH.

SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST REGION WILL LIE
SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT PULLS FAR TO THE
NORTH. A TAIL OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE FEATURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY
THROUGH IN THE EVENING TO OFF THE COAST BY 06Z. ON ITS HEELS IS A
120 KT OR GREATER UPPER JET THAT ORIENTS ITSELF EAST/NE TO WEST/SW
ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THIS POSITION
WE/RE WITHIN THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET WHICH SUGGESTS
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE RATHER THAN
DIVERGENCE/DIFLUENCE. PLUS THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF CINH THAT
DEVELOPS AND LAPSE RATES OVERALL REMAIN POOR...ESPECIALLY INT HE
LOWER LEVELS WHERE A SUBTLE INVERSION FORMS. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY
SEVERE THREAT IN CHECK...BUT A CONTINUATION OF LOW LFC LEVELS AND
HIGH SHEAR STILL SUPPORTS A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THAT MAY
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A DECAYING SQUALL LINE DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY WANE FROM SOUTH/SW TO
NORTH/NE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE EXTREME WETNESS FROM ALL
THE RAIN AND SOME INDICATIONS OF STRATUS BUILD-DOWN AND MAYBE EVEN A
LITTLE SEA FOG THROWN INTO THE MIX WE/LL SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...DESPITE THE STRONG WIND FIELDS. PROBABLY THESE WINDS
ARE TOO HIGH FOR DENSE FOG...BUT WE/LL MAINTAIN A CLOSE WEATHER
WATCH TO BE SURE. TEMPS WON/T BUDGE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE INHIBITED BY THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
FULL SATURATION THAT OCCURS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM AN INTENSE
SURFACE CYCLONE AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT SEPARATED
FROM THE PARENT SYSTEM...AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EAST/SE PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH. FRONTAL PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW AS A RESULT...LIKELY NOT
OCCURRING UNTIL THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE AMOUNT AND POSITIONING OF CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN A
DEEP BAND OF MOISTURE...LIKELY OVER OUR EASTERNMOST SECTIONS WE HAVE
MAINTAINED 30-40 POP SCHEME...GREATEST NEAR THE COASTAL CORRIDOR.
WHILE THERE CAN STILL BE SOME T-STORMS WITHIN A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ANY SEVERE RISK SEEMS CLOSE TO...IF NOT ZERO. TEMPS
WILL BE FAR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AT RECORD
LEVELS WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE PARALLEL GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAS PERFORMED WELL OF LATE AND IS
SUGGESTING THAT WE COULD FLIRT WITH THE RECORD HIGHS. THIS IS ALSO
IN LINE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FORECAST. FOR NOW WE HAVE SHOWN
UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE AND CAN ALWAYS ADJUST HIGHER LATER
IN NECESSARY. THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
AFTER SUNSET...BUT CLOUD COVER MIGHT BE SLOW IN ERODING. BUT THAT
SHOULD BE OFFSET BY MODEST COOL ADVECTION WHICH WILL EQUATE TO TEMPS
SOME 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER
NOT FAR OFF THE SE COAST...STILL STUCK WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
WITHIN A HUGE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE NATION. WHILE IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH INTO THE ATLANTIC TO KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED RAINS OFFSHORE...THE FLOW BACKS A LITTLE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT MAY PULL MOISTURE BACK A LITTLE MORE TOWARD
SHORE LATE IN THE DAY. AT PRESENT WE HAVE 20-40 POPS FROM NW TO SE.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS AND THE LACK OF
ANY WARM ADVECTION...AND SOME 15 DEGREES OR MORE COOLER THAN ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AXIS OF A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY SWEEP TOWARD THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT ENERGY HELPING TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MEANDERING OFFSHORE FRONT. THERE
REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST/NW
AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL MAKE IT. THIS WILL HAVE HUGE IMPLICATIONS
ON THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THE RESULTING LOW SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EVENTUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. A NOTABLE COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUPPRESSED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE GOING DOWNHILL TONIGHT AT THE TERMS AS DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA. CLOUDS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS
LIKELY STARTING AROUND 06Z AT KSAV AND AROUND 12Z AT KCHS. CIGS
WILL THEN CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR OR WORSE WITH THE RAIN BECOMING
STEADIER/HEAVIER. VSBYS WILL ALSO DROP...POSSIBLY DUE TO LOWERING
STRATUS AT FIRST...THEN HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD ALSO BE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR MAINLY AFTER 12Z AS 2K FT WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
35-40 KT AND VEER SLIGHTLY AS THE LOW- LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH
TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO
OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS AND GRADUALLY LOWER CEILINGS AND
POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. IT/LL ALSO BE BREEZY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A
RISK OF WIND SHEAR SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT PULLS FARTHER
OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
INLAND WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE COASTAL FRONT EVENTUALLY
MERGES WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...DESPITE LESS THAN PERFECT MIXING
PROFILES IN THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN 15-20 KT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 20-25 KT WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM WHERE WARMER WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A BIT MORE MIXING. SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE 3-6 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG AND ELONGATED RIDGE OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED EAST-WEST AND NORTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE PULLING FURTHER EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS ALLOWS FOR A WARM FRONT HUNG UP TO THE
EAST OF THE COOLER SHELF WATERS SUNDAY MORNING TO GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTH/NW IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
MARINE AREA DURING THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES
ONSHORE. A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN
AS THE WARM FRONT HEADS FURTHER NORTH/NW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER FROM EAST AROUND TO THE
SE SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING AND FINALLY TO THE SW BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRAVERSE THE WATERS
AND DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO LIMIT MIXING...THIS STILL
SUPPORTS SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WE HAVE TOYED WITH THE IDEA
OF A GALE WATCH...BUT GIVEN MARINE-LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN A REGIME
WHERE TEMPS OF THE WATER ARE SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE AIR
TEMPS AND GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS AT 1000 MB ARE NO MORE THAN AROUND
35 KT...THIS POSSIBILITY IS TOO LOW TO CONSIDER AT PRESENT. MAYBE
FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS AT SOME POINT GALES MIGHT BE REQUIRED SINCE
THEIR WATERS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S AND LESS IMPACTED
BY MARINE-LAYERING INFLUENCES. MARINERS SHOULD ALSO BE PREPARED FOR
STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED T-STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
MAY BE NECESSARY.

GIVEN SOME 6-8 FOOTERS WITHIN A 0-20 NM WATERS THERE COULD BE SOME
BREAKERS APPROACHING 4 OR 5 FEET AT THE BEACHES. IF THIS COMES TO
FRUITION WE MIGHT NEED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT A LATER TIMES. FOR
NOW WE/LL ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF SEA FOG GIVEN THE
WARMER AIR ACROSS THE NOTICEABLY COOLER SHELF WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE PROBABLY TOO STRONG FOR THIS...BUT GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS WE HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY
FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT
AWAY FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY HOW
THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS...ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IS
HIGHLY CERTAIN. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.75-2 INCHES COUPLED WITH
GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE PERIOD. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS
FALLING ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE/RE STILL BELOW THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE HOWEVER SINCE WE/RE 1-3 INCHES BELOW NORMAL SINCE
SEPTEMBER 1ST. SO WE/RE HESITANT TO HOIST AN AREAL FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. BUT THE RISK FOR POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE BEAUFORT AND SAVANNAH METRO
AREAS WITH THE MID MOORING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS62 KFFC 221946
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
246 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS
SHIFTING EAST BUT STILL RIDGING IN PLACE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL SEE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT INITIALLY BUT THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH
BASICALLY A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CWA. FINALLY THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN PUSHING SOME OF THE SYSTEM
OUT OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. MUCAPE
VALUES REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH IS PRETTY DECENT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. GFS SHOWS 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME VALUES EXCEEDING 50KTS.
THE NAM MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SO IF THE NAM OR GFS
VALUES ARE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY HAVE DECENT SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-
300J/KG BUT LESS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA. LOOKING AT THE LOCAL
WRF...IT IMPLIES WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNRISE...THEN
POTENTIALLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIP...THEN MORE CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH.

BESIDES SEVERE...HYDROLOGY IS THE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM. SEE
THE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN. WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS GA. FOR SUNDAY...BIG DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. MET IS MUCH COLDER AND KEEPS AREA CLOUDY
WHILE THE MAV IS WARMER AND TRIES TO PUSH CLOUDS OUT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT THINK IT
WOULD BE LIMITED SO STAYED IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE.


11


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING RAPIDLY LEAVING A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT DRY AIR WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ENDING THE PRECIP. THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD AS
WELL AS GENERATE ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EXIT THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR
SPREADS OVER THE CWA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM.

17


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA WITH AROUND 2-2.5 ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE GROUND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS MUCH PRECIP. EVEN SO WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE... CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES BUT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. SOME
GUIDANCE POINTS AT 400FT SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUNDAY MORNING
CLOSELY. RAIN WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT AT THE TAF SITES. HAVE MOVED
THE TIMING UP SLIGHTLY IN THE TAFS...BUT MAY STILL BE ON THE SLOW
SIDE...PARTICULARLY AT THE ATL SITES AND AHN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND CIGS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  55  53  68 /  90 100  70  20
ATLANTA         46  57  54  66 /  90 100  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     40  54  47  61 /  70 100  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    44  57  51  64 /  80 100  50  10
COLUMBUS        52  65  59  70 / 100 100  40  10
GAINESVILLE     44  54  49  64 /  90 100  60  10
MACON           53  66  61  73 / 100 100  60  20
ROME            44  58  53  63 /  80 100  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  47  58  54  67 / 100 100  40  10
VIDALIA         56  71  65  75 / 100 100  80  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11




000
FXUS62 KFFC 221946
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
246 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS
SHIFTING EAST BUT STILL RIDGING IN PLACE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL SEE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT INITIALLY BUT THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH
BASICALLY A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CWA. FINALLY THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN PUSHING SOME OF THE SYSTEM
OUT OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. MUCAPE
VALUES REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH IS PRETTY DECENT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. GFS SHOWS 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME VALUES EXCEEDING 50KTS.
THE NAM MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SO IF THE NAM OR GFS
VALUES ARE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY HAVE DECENT SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-
300J/KG BUT LESS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA. LOOKING AT THE LOCAL
WRF...IT IMPLIES WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNRISE...THEN
POTENTIALLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIP...THEN MORE CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH.

BESIDES SEVERE...HYDROLOGY IS THE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM. SEE
THE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN. WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS GA. FOR SUNDAY...BIG DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. MET IS MUCH COLDER AND KEEPS AREA CLOUDY
WHILE THE MAV IS WARMER AND TRIES TO PUSH CLOUDS OUT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT THINK IT
WOULD BE LIMITED SO STAYED IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE.


11


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING RAPIDLY LEAVING A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT DRY AIR WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ENDING THE PRECIP. THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD AS
WELL AS GENERATE ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EXIT THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR
SPREADS OVER THE CWA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM.

17


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA WITH AROUND 2-2.5 ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE GROUND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS MUCH PRECIP. EVEN SO WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE... CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES BUT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. SOME
GUIDANCE POINTS AT 400FT SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUNDAY MORNING
CLOSELY. RAIN WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT AT THE TAF SITES. HAVE MOVED
THE TIMING UP SLIGHTLY IN THE TAFS...BUT MAY STILL BE ON THE SLOW
SIDE...PARTICULARLY AT THE ATL SITES AND AHN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND CIGS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  55  53  68 /  90 100  70  20
ATLANTA         46  57  54  66 /  90 100  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     40  54  47  61 /  70 100  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    44  57  51  64 /  80 100  50  10
COLUMBUS        52  65  59  70 / 100 100  40  10
GAINESVILLE     44  54  49  64 /  90 100  60  10
MACON           53  66  61  73 / 100 100  60  20
ROME            44  58  53  63 /  80 100  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  47  58  54  67 / 100 100  40  10
VIDALIA         56  71  65  75 / 100 100  80  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11



000
FXUS62 KCHS 221817
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
117 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S NORTH
AND MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH WITH A LITTLE MORE WARMING EXPECTED BEFORE
THE CLOUDS/ONSHORE FLOW BEGIN TO INCREASE. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER STILL SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA
BUT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...MAINLY ALONG THE GA
COAST WHERE GUSTS WILL BE NEAR 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TONIGHT
AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET FORMS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WELL TO THE WEST. THE STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS SURGING TO
1.5-2 INCHES BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. WARM FRONTOGENESIS WILL INITIATE
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS
WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. THE COMBINATION
OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASSENT ATOP THE DECAYING INLAND WEDGE AND
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING 200-300 HPA
DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL
SUPPORT A STEADILY EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE VARIOUS
GUIDANCE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF WHEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL MOVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ALL ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS
AS THE SUN RISES SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE UTILIZED 30/30/30 BLEND
APPROACH WITH THE VARIOUS MODELS TO CONSTRUCT HOURLY POPS...BUT
MAX POPS WILL RANGE FROM 70-80 PERCENT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY AREA TO 90-100 PERCENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
AND ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE RAIN COULD BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY
AT TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
EMBEDDED TSTMS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND AND
FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ROBUST SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL RAPIDLY LIFT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...PROVIDING THE ENERGY
TO DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A PROMINENT
WARM FRONT DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SYSTEM WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A DECENT TAP INTO ATLANTIC AND
GULF MOISTURE SUPPORTING A SURGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A
RESULT...AND HAVE MAINTAINED RAIN CHANCES UP TO 100 PERCENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. RAIN ACCUMULATION COULD REACH 2 TO 3
INCHES...WITH EVEN SOME POSSIBLE 3 TO 4 INCHES BY THE NIGHTTIME
PERIOD. LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE MAIN FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDES AROUND 8 TO 9 AM AND 8 TO 9 PM. WARM ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE LIFTING FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...WHILE
SOLID WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THICK CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPORT VERY
MILD NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK ZONE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...THE EVENING TIME FRAME COULD BECOME
A LARGER CONCERN REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL. ONSHORE FLOW DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS COULD ASSIST IN STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE...WHILE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGEST WIND FIELDS
COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. MODEL SIMULATED
RADAR REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND A
SECONDARY BAND OF CONVECTION INITIATING JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT
AND ALONG A REGION OF ENHANCED VORTICITY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. A POSSIBLE PSEUDO SQUALL LINE COULD THEN
APPROACH AND BE BETTER TIMED WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 40 TO 50 KT LOW
LEVEL JET AND SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING BULK SHEAR VALUES. ANY
CONVECTION WITH DEEPER UPDRAFTS COULD TAP INTO THESE STRONG WINDS
AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND PERHAPS SUPPORT ANOTHER SMALL
TORNADO THREAT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND THE FORECAST AREA FALLS WITHIN DRIER AIR BETWEEN THE WARM
FRONT AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...GIVEN THE WARM AIR AND ABUNDANT
RAINFALL FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY
FOG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR THE LAND AREAS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE STRONG
GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT SEPARATED FROM
THE PARENT SYSTEM AND NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW AS A RESULT...LIKELY NOT OCCURRING UNTIL
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. A RESIDUAL BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE RAIN CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S DUE TO A WARMER START TO THE
DAY AND WITHIN CONTINUED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT TO BE NOTABLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOW 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST...STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LINGER JUST OFFSHORE...AS WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FEATURE. DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE/FORCING...SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD STILL AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE MEANDERING FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...ONLY REACHING THE MID 60S
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE AXIS OF A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY SWEEP TOWARD THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT ENERGY HELPING TO DEEPEN THE
SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MEANDERING OFFSHORE FRONT.
THE RESULTING LOW SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A NOTABLE COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS
FALLING INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE GOING DOWNHILL TONIGHT AT THE TERMS AS DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA. CLOUDS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS
LIKELY STARTING AROUND 06Z AT KSAV AND AROUND 12Z AT KCHS. CIGS
WILL THEN CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR OR WORSE WITH THE RAIN BECOMING
STEADIER/HEAVIER. VSBYS WILL ALSO DROP...POSSIBLY DUE TO LOWERING
STRATUS AT FIRST...THEN HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD ALSO BE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR MAINLY AFTER 12Z AS 2K FT WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
35-40 KT AND VEER SLIGHTLY AS THE LOW- LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY...AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THERE
IS AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT EARLY MONDAY. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL A COLD FRONT PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE
BY MID WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A RISK OF
WIND SHEAR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...PINCHED GRADIENT CONDITIONS BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND A SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15-25 KT THROUGH THE
DAY WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS HOLDING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WATER WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THE
TIGHTEST. WINDS MAY RELAX A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHOPPY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 3-5 FT OVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS TO 5-7 FT OVER THE REMAINING AREAS. AS
WINDS/SEAS RELAX A BIT TOWARD AFTERNOON WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP
THE ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN SC NEARSHORE WATERS BUT WILL
MAINTAIN FLAGS FOR THE GEORGIA WATERS OUT TO 60 NM THROUGH THE
DAY.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
INLAND WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE COASTAL FRONT EVENTUALLY
MERGES WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...DESPITE LESS THAN PERFECT MIXING
PROFILES IN THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN 15-20 KT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 20-25 KT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A BIT
MORE MIXING. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 4-7 FT NEARSHORE WATERS TO 6-8 FT
OFFSHORE WATERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO AND THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS. WARM ADVECTION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO MIX TO THE OCEAN SURFACE...HOWEVER
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE STILL LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE
EVENTUAL EXPANSION/EXTENSION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS ALL
WATERS. THE RISK FOR ANY MARGINAL GALES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES STILL APPEARS TOO LOW
TO SUPPORT A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE MARINE AREA...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS. SINCE THE SHELF WATERS HAVE COOLED
CONSIDERABLY INTO THE 50S...AS THE WARM AND SATURATED AIR MASS
OVERSPREADS THE AREA...THERE COULD BE A CONCERN FOR LOW STRATUS
BUILD-DOWN AND/OR SEA FOG. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT
AWAY FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY HOW
THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS...ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IS
BECOMING MORE CERTAIN WITH EACH MODEL CYCLE. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PWATS OF 1.5-2 INCHES COUPLED WITH STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE PERIOD.
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS FALLING SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION
OF HEAVY RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON
AND SAVANNAH METRO AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 221817
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
117 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S NORTH
AND MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH WITH A LITTLE MORE WARMING EXPECTED BEFORE
THE CLOUDS/ONSHORE FLOW BEGIN TO INCREASE. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER STILL SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA
BUT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...MAINLY ALONG THE GA
COAST WHERE GUSTS WILL BE NEAR 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TONIGHT
AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET FORMS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WELL TO THE WEST. THE STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS SURGING TO
1.5-2 INCHES BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. WARM FRONTOGENESIS WILL INITIATE
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS
WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. THE COMBINATION
OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASSENT ATOP THE DECAYING INLAND WEDGE AND
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING 200-300 HPA
DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL
SUPPORT A STEADILY EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE VARIOUS
GUIDANCE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF WHEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL MOVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ALL ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS
AS THE SUN RISES SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE UTILIZED 30/30/30 BLEND
APPROACH WITH THE VARIOUS MODELS TO CONSTRUCT HOURLY POPS...BUT
MAX POPS WILL RANGE FROM 70-80 PERCENT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY AREA TO 90-100 PERCENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
AND ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE RAIN COULD BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY
AT TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
EMBEDDED TSTMS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND AND
FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ROBUST SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL RAPIDLY LIFT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...PROVIDING THE ENERGY
TO DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A PROMINENT
WARM FRONT DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SYSTEM WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A DECENT TAP INTO ATLANTIC AND
GULF MOISTURE SUPPORTING A SURGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A
RESULT...AND HAVE MAINTAINED RAIN CHANCES UP TO 100 PERCENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. RAIN ACCUMULATION COULD REACH 2 TO 3
INCHES...WITH EVEN SOME POSSIBLE 3 TO 4 INCHES BY THE NIGHTTIME
PERIOD. LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE MAIN FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDES AROUND 8 TO 9 AM AND 8 TO 9 PM. WARM ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE LIFTING FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...WHILE
SOLID WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THICK CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPORT VERY
MILD NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK ZONE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...THE EVENING TIME FRAME COULD BECOME
A LARGER CONCERN REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL. ONSHORE FLOW DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS COULD ASSIST IN STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE...WHILE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGEST WIND FIELDS
COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. MODEL SIMULATED
RADAR REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND A
SECONDARY BAND OF CONVECTION INITIATING JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT
AND ALONG A REGION OF ENHANCED VORTICITY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. A POSSIBLE PSEUDO SQUALL LINE COULD THEN
APPROACH AND BE BETTER TIMED WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 40 TO 50 KT LOW
LEVEL JET AND SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING BULK SHEAR VALUES. ANY
CONVECTION WITH DEEPER UPDRAFTS COULD TAP INTO THESE STRONG WINDS
AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND PERHAPS SUPPORT ANOTHER SMALL
TORNADO THREAT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND THE FORECAST AREA FALLS WITHIN DRIER AIR BETWEEN THE WARM
FRONT AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...GIVEN THE WARM AIR AND ABUNDANT
RAINFALL FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY
FOG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR THE LAND AREAS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE STRONG
GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT SEPARATED FROM
THE PARENT SYSTEM AND NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW AS A RESULT...LIKELY NOT OCCURRING UNTIL
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. A RESIDUAL BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE RAIN CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S DUE TO A WARMER START TO THE
DAY AND WITHIN CONTINUED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT TO BE NOTABLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOW 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST...STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LINGER JUST OFFSHORE...AS WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FEATURE. DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE/FORCING...SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD STILL AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE MEANDERING FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...ONLY REACHING THE MID 60S
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE AXIS OF A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY SWEEP TOWARD THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT ENERGY HELPING TO DEEPEN THE
SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MEANDERING OFFSHORE FRONT.
THE RESULTING LOW SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A NOTABLE COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS
FALLING INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE GOING DOWNHILL TONIGHT AT THE TERMS AS DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA. CLOUDS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS
LIKELY STARTING AROUND 06Z AT KSAV AND AROUND 12Z AT KCHS. CIGS
WILL THEN CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR OR WORSE WITH THE RAIN BECOMING
STEADIER/HEAVIER. VSBYS WILL ALSO DROP...POSSIBLY DUE TO LOWERING
STRATUS AT FIRST...THEN HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD ALSO BE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR MAINLY AFTER 12Z AS 2K FT WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
35-40 KT AND VEER SLIGHTLY AS THE LOW- LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY...AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THERE
IS AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT EARLY MONDAY. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL A COLD FRONT PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE
BY MID WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A RISK OF
WIND SHEAR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...PINCHED GRADIENT CONDITIONS BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND A SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15-25 KT THROUGH THE
DAY WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS HOLDING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WATER WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THE
TIGHTEST. WINDS MAY RELAX A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHOPPY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 3-5 FT OVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS TO 5-7 FT OVER THE REMAINING AREAS. AS
WINDS/SEAS RELAX A BIT TOWARD AFTERNOON WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP
THE ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN SC NEARSHORE WATERS BUT WILL
MAINTAIN FLAGS FOR THE GEORGIA WATERS OUT TO 60 NM THROUGH THE
DAY.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
INLAND WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE COASTAL FRONT EVENTUALLY
MERGES WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...DESPITE LESS THAN PERFECT MIXING
PROFILES IN THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN 15-20 KT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 20-25 KT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A BIT
MORE MIXING. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 4-7 FT NEARSHORE WATERS TO 6-8 FT
OFFSHORE WATERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO AND THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS. WARM ADVECTION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO MIX TO THE OCEAN SURFACE...HOWEVER
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE STILL LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE
EVENTUAL EXPANSION/EXTENSION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS ALL
WATERS. THE RISK FOR ANY MARGINAL GALES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES STILL APPEARS TOO LOW
TO SUPPORT A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE MARINE AREA...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS. SINCE THE SHELF WATERS HAVE COOLED
CONSIDERABLY INTO THE 50S...AS THE WARM AND SATURATED AIR MASS
OVERSPREADS THE AREA...THERE COULD BE A CONCERN FOR LOW STRATUS
BUILD-DOWN AND/OR SEA FOG. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT
AWAY FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY HOW
THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS...ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IS
BECOMING MORE CERTAIN WITH EACH MODEL CYCLE. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PWATS OF 1.5-2 INCHES COUPLED WITH STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE PERIOD.
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS FALLING SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION
OF HEAVY RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON
AND SAVANNAH METRO AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 221817
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
117 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S NORTH
AND MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH WITH A LITTLE MORE WARMING EXPECTED BEFORE
THE CLOUDS/ONSHORE FLOW BEGIN TO INCREASE. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER STILL SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA
BUT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...MAINLY ALONG THE GA
COAST WHERE GUSTS WILL BE NEAR 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TONIGHT
AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET FORMS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WELL TO THE WEST. THE STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS SURGING TO
1.5-2 INCHES BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. WARM FRONTOGENESIS WILL INITIATE
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS
WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. THE COMBINATION
OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASSENT ATOP THE DECAYING INLAND WEDGE AND
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING 200-300 HPA
DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL
SUPPORT A STEADILY EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE VARIOUS
GUIDANCE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF WHEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL MOVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ALL ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS
AS THE SUN RISES SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE UTILIZED 30/30/30 BLEND
APPROACH WITH THE VARIOUS MODELS TO CONSTRUCT HOURLY POPS...BUT
MAX POPS WILL RANGE FROM 70-80 PERCENT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY AREA TO 90-100 PERCENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
AND ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE RAIN COULD BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY
AT TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
EMBEDDED TSTMS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND AND
FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ROBUST SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL RAPIDLY LIFT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...PROVIDING THE ENERGY
TO DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A PROMINENT
WARM FRONT DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SYSTEM WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A DECENT TAP INTO ATLANTIC AND
GULF MOISTURE SUPPORTING A SURGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A
RESULT...AND HAVE MAINTAINED RAIN CHANCES UP TO 100 PERCENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. RAIN ACCUMULATION COULD REACH 2 TO 3
INCHES...WITH EVEN SOME POSSIBLE 3 TO 4 INCHES BY THE NIGHTTIME
PERIOD. LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE MAIN FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDES AROUND 8 TO 9 AM AND 8 TO 9 PM. WARM ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE LIFTING FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...WHILE
SOLID WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THICK CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPORT VERY
MILD NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK ZONE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...THE EVENING TIME FRAME COULD BECOME
A LARGER CONCERN REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL. ONSHORE FLOW DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS COULD ASSIST IN STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE...WHILE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGEST WIND FIELDS
COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. MODEL SIMULATED
RADAR REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND A
SECONDARY BAND OF CONVECTION INITIATING JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT
AND ALONG A REGION OF ENHANCED VORTICITY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. A POSSIBLE PSEUDO SQUALL LINE COULD THEN
APPROACH AND BE BETTER TIMED WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 40 TO 50 KT LOW
LEVEL JET AND SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING BULK SHEAR VALUES. ANY
CONVECTION WITH DEEPER UPDRAFTS COULD TAP INTO THESE STRONG WINDS
AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND PERHAPS SUPPORT ANOTHER SMALL
TORNADO THREAT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND THE FORECAST AREA FALLS WITHIN DRIER AIR BETWEEN THE WARM
FRONT AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...GIVEN THE WARM AIR AND ABUNDANT
RAINFALL FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY
FOG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR THE LAND AREAS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE STRONG
GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT SEPARATED FROM
THE PARENT SYSTEM AND NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW AS A RESULT...LIKELY NOT OCCURRING UNTIL
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. A RESIDUAL BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE RAIN CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S DUE TO A WARMER START TO THE
DAY AND WITHIN CONTINUED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT TO BE NOTABLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOW 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST...STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LINGER JUST OFFSHORE...AS WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FEATURE. DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE/FORCING...SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD STILL AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE MEANDERING FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...ONLY REACHING THE MID 60S
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE AXIS OF A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY SWEEP TOWARD THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT ENERGY HELPING TO DEEPEN THE
SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MEANDERING OFFSHORE FRONT.
THE RESULTING LOW SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A NOTABLE COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS
FALLING INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE GOING DOWNHILL TONIGHT AT THE TERMS AS DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA. CLOUDS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS
LIKELY STARTING AROUND 06Z AT KSAV AND AROUND 12Z AT KCHS. CIGS
WILL THEN CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR OR WORSE WITH THE RAIN BECOMING
STEADIER/HEAVIER. VSBYS WILL ALSO DROP...POSSIBLY DUE TO LOWERING
STRATUS AT FIRST...THEN HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD ALSO BE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR MAINLY AFTER 12Z AS 2K FT WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
35-40 KT AND VEER SLIGHTLY AS THE LOW- LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY...AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THERE
IS AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT EARLY MONDAY. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL A COLD FRONT PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE
BY MID WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A RISK OF
WIND SHEAR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...PINCHED GRADIENT CONDITIONS BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND A SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15-25 KT THROUGH THE
DAY WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS HOLDING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WATER WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THE
TIGHTEST. WINDS MAY RELAX A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHOPPY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 3-5 FT OVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS TO 5-7 FT OVER THE REMAINING AREAS. AS
WINDS/SEAS RELAX A BIT TOWARD AFTERNOON WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP
THE ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN SC NEARSHORE WATERS BUT WILL
MAINTAIN FLAGS FOR THE GEORGIA WATERS OUT TO 60 NM THROUGH THE
DAY.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
INLAND WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE COASTAL FRONT EVENTUALLY
MERGES WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...DESPITE LESS THAN PERFECT MIXING
PROFILES IN THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN 15-20 KT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 20-25 KT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A BIT
MORE MIXING. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 4-7 FT NEARSHORE WATERS TO 6-8 FT
OFFSHORE WATERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO AND THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS. WARM ADVECTION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO MIX TO THE OCEAN SURFACE...HOWEVER
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE STILL LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE
EVENTUAL EXPANSION/EXTENSION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS ALL
WATERS. THE RISK FOR ANY MARGINAL GALES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES STILL APPEARS TOO LOW
TO SUPPORT A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE MARINE AREA...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS. SINCE THE SHELF WATERS HAVE COOLED
CONSIDERABLY INTO THE 50S...AS THE WARM AND SATURATED AIR MASS
OVERSPREADS THE AREA...THERE COULD BE A CONCERN FOR LOW STRATUS
BUILD-DOWN AND/OR SEA FOG. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT
AWAY FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY HOW
THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS...ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IS
BECOMING MORE CERTAIN WITH EACH MODEL CYCLE. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PWATS OF 1.5-2 INCHES COUPLED WITH STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE PERIOD.
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS FALLING SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION
OF HEAVY RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON
AND SAVANNAH METRO AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 221817
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
117 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S NORTH
AND MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH WITH A LITTLE MORE WARMING EXPECTED BEFORE
THE CLOUDS/ONSHORE FLOW BEGIN TO INCREASE. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER STILL SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA
BUT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...MAINLY ALONG THE GA
COAST WHERE GUSTS WILL BE NEAR 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TONIGHT
AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET FORMS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WELL TO THE WEST. THE STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS SURGING TO
1.5-2 INCHES BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. WARM FRONTOGENESIS WILL INITIATE
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS
WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. THE COMBINATION
OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASSENT ATOP THE DECAYING INLAND WEDGE AND
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING 200-300 HPA
DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL
SUPPORT A STEADILY EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE VARIOUS
GUIDANCE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF WHEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL MOVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ALL ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS
AS THE SUN RISES SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE UTILIZED 30/30/30 BLEND
APPROACH WITH THE VARIOUS MODELS TO CONSTRUCT HOURLY POPS...BUT
MAX POPS WILL RANGE FROM 70-80 PERCENT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY AREA TO 90-100 PERCENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
AND ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE RAIN COULD BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY
AT TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
EMBEDDED TSTMS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND AND
FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ROBUST SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL RAPIDLY LIFT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...PROVIDING THE ENERGY
TO DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A PROMINENT
WARM FRONT DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SYSTEM WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A DECENT TAP INTO ATLANTIC AND
GULF MOISTURE SUPPORTING A SURGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A
RESULT...AND HAVE MAINTAINED RAIN CHANCES UP TO 100 PERCENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. RAIN ACCUMULATION COULD REACH 2 TO 3
INCHES...WITH EVEN SOME POSSIBLE 3 TO 4 INCHES BY THE NIGHTTIME
PERIOD. LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE MAIN FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDES AROUND 8 TO 9 AM AND 8 TO 9 PM. WARM ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE LIFTING FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...WHILE
SOLID WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THICK CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPORT VERY
MILD NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK ZONE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...THE EVENING TIME FRAME COULD BECOME
A LARGER CONCERN REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL. ONSHORE FLOW DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS COULD ASSIST IN STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE...WHILE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGEST WIND FIELDS
COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. MODEL SIMULATED
RADAR REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND A
SECONDARY BAND OF CONVECTION INITIATING JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT
AND ALONG A REGION OF ENHANCED VORTICITY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. A POSSIBLE PSEUDO SQUALL LINE COULD THEN
APPROACH AND BE BETTER TIMED WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 40 TO 50 KT LOW
LEVEL JET AND SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING BULK SHEAR VALUES. ANY
CONVECTION WITH DEEPER UPDRAFTS COULD TAP INTO THESE STRONG WINDS
AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND PERHAPS SUPPORT ANOTHER SMALL
TORNADO THREAT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND THE FORECAST AREA FALLS WITHIN DRIER AIR BETWEEN THE WARM
FRONT AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...GIVEN THE WARM AIR AND ABUNDANT
RAINFALL FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY
FOG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR THE LAND AREAS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE STRONG
GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT SEPARATED FROM
THE PARENT SYSTEM AND NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW AS A RESULT...LIKELY NOT OCCURRING UNTIL
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. A RESIDUAL BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE RAIN CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S DUE TO A WARMER START TO THE
DAY AND WITHIN CONTINUED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT TO BE NOTABLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOW 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST...STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LINGER JUST OFFSHORE...AS WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FEATURE. DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE/FORCING...SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD STILL AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE MEANDERING FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...ONLY REACHING THE MID 60S
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE AXIS OF A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY SWEEP TOWARD THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT ENERGY HELPING TO DEEPEN THE
SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MEANDERING OFFSHORE FRONT.
THE RESULTING LOW SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A NOTABLE COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS
FALLING INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE GOING DOWNHILL TONIGHT AT THE TERMS AS DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA. CLOUDS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS
LIKELY STARTING AROUND 06Z AT KSAV AND AROUND 12Z AT KCHS. CIGS
WILL THEN CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR OR WORSE WITH THE RAIN BECOMING
STEADIER/HEAVIER. VSBYS WILL ALSO DROP...POSSIBLY DUE TO LOWERING
STRATUS AT FIRST...THEN HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD ALSO BE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR MAINLY AFTER 12Z AS 2K FT WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
35-40 KT AND VEER SLIGHTLY AS THE LOW- LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY...AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THERE
IS AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT EARLY MONDAY. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL A COLD FRONT PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE
BY MID WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A RISK OF
WIND SHEAR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...PINCHED GRADIENT CONDITIONS BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND A SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15-25 KT THROUGH THE
DAY WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS HOLDING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WATER WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THE
TIGHTEST. WINDS MAY RELAX A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHOPPY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 3-5 FT OVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS TO 5-7 FT OVER THE REMAINING AREAS. AS
WINDS/SEAS RELAX A BIT TOWARD AFTERNOON WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP
THE ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN SC NEARSHORE WATERS BUT WILL
MAINTAIN FLAGS FOR THE GEORGIA WATERS OUT TO 60 NM THROUGH THE
DAY.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
INLAND WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE COASTAL FRONT EVENTUALLY
MERGES WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...DESPITE LESS THAN PERFECT MIXING
PROFILES IN THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN 15-20 KT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 20-25 KT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A BIT
MORE MIXING. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 4-7 FT NEARSHORE WATERS TO 6-8 FT
OFFSHORE WATERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO AND THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS. WARM ADVECTION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO MIX TO THE OCEAN SURFACE...HOWEVER
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE STILL LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE
EVENTUAL EXPANSION/EXTENSION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS ALL
WATERS. THE RISK FOR ANY MARGINAL GALES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES STILL APPEARS TOO LOW
TO SUPPORT A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE MARINE AREA...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS. SINCE THE SHELF WATERS HAVE COOLED
CONSIDERABLY INTO THE 50S...AS THE WARM AND SATURATED AIR MASS
OVERSPREADS THE AREA...THERE COULD BE A CONCERN FOR LOW STRATUS
BUILD-DOWN AND/OR SEA FOG. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT
AWAY FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY HOW
THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS...ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IS
BECOMING MORE CERTAIN WITH EACH MODEL CYCLE. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PWATS OF 1.5-2 INCHES COUPLED WITH STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE PERIOD.
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS FALLING SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION
OF HEAVY RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON
AND SAVANNAH METRO AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 221759
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1259 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...SATELLITE SHOWING SOME CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE
NORTHWARDS OUT OF SOUTHERN GA...MAINLY JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
CSRA. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE MOISTURE RETURN. AT THE
SURFACE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS ERN NC WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE COAST. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH...WHILE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WILL RISE INTO THE 60S AGAIN.

TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE BY
06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA/CSRA
LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
TOWARDS MORNING. WILL BE RAMPING UP POPS FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WESTERN CWA AS THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
APPROACHING THE REGION AFTER THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY
ON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DROPOFF AFTER SUNSET. THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY TOWARDS
MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND AROUND 40
ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED WELL
BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS PUSHING INTO THE REGION BY 12Z.

VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL
IN CONTROL OVER THE CAROLINAS. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATER
TONIGHT...TOWARDS 06Z AT AGS/DNL...AND TOWARDS 12Z AT CAE/CUB/OGB.
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A
WEAK SURFACE WEDGE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN
INTO MVFR/IFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. RAINFALL WILL AID IN
DETERIORATING THE CONDITIONS EVEN MORE TOWARDS MORNING...WITH LIFR
BECOMING POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AT ALL SITES. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 221759
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1259 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...SATELLITE SHOWING SOME CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE
NORTHWARDS OUT OF SOUTHERN GA...MAINLY JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
CSRA. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE MOISTURE RETURN. AT THE
SURFACE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS ERN NC WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE COAST. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH...WHILE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WILL RISE INTO THE 60S AGAIN.

TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE BY
06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA/CSRA
LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
TOWARDS MORNING. WILL BE RAMPING UP POPS FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WESTERN CWA AS THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
APPROACHING THE REGION AFTER THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY
ON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DROPOFF AFTER SUNSET. THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY TOWARDS
MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND AROUND 40
ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED WELL
BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS PUSHING INTO THE REGION BY 12Z.

VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL
IN CONTROL OVER THE CAROLINAS. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATER
TONIGHT...TOWARDS 06Z AT AGS/DNL...AND TOWARDS 12Z AT CAE/CUB/OGB.
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A
WEAK SURFACE WEDGE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN
INTO MVFR/IFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. RAINFALL WILL AID IN
DETERIORATING THE CONDITIONS EVEN MORE TOWARDS MORNING...WITH LIFR
BECOMING POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AT ALL SITES. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 221755 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 953 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO ADJUST THE CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IN ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING LIFTS
OUT INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WEAKER IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY. SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST KEEPS
NORTH GEORGIA SOMEWHAT STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED...ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AGAINST THE RIDGE
WITH MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG LOW-
LEVEL AND DEEP- LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
SECONDARY CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BEST QPF TOTALS REMAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING POTENTIAL IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

20

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
GFS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF ALSO SHOWING
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL GA MONDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...MOISTURE BEGINS WORKING BACK NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS DIFFERING WITH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. SO HAVE LEFT LOW POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
GA INTO WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE OF NEXT WAVE SHOULD TAKE PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A
WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE TN VALLEY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FAR NORTH GA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING END OF THIS WAVE
ONLY BRUSHES NORTH GA SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BUT
OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. SOME GUIDANCE
POINTS AT 400FT SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUNDAY MORNING CLOSELY. RAIN
WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT AT THE TAF SITES. HAVE MOVED THE TIMING UP
SLIGHTLY IN THE TAFS...BUT MAY STILL BE ON THE SLOW
SIDE...PARTICULARLY AT THE ATL SITES AND AHN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND CIGS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  44  58  54 /   5  90 100  70
ATLANTA         57  46  59  55 /   5  90 100  50
BLAIRSVILLE     56  39  55  49 /   0  70  90  60
CARTERSVILLE    56  45  57  53 /   0  80  90  40
COLUMBUS        63  54  66  60 /  20  90 100  40
GAINESVILLE     54  44  53  50 /   0  90 100  60
MACON           63  54  66  60 /  20 100 100  50
ROME            57  44  59  53 /   0  80  90  40
PEACHTREE CITY  58  48  61  55 /   5  90 100  40
VIDALIA         66  56  69  64 /  20  90  90  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11




000
FXUS62 KFFC 221755 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 953 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO ADJUST THE CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IN ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING LIFTS
OUT INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WEAKER IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY. SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST KEEPS
NORTH GEORGIA SOMEWHAT STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED...ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AGAINST THE RIDGE
WITH MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG LOW-
LEVEL AND DEEP- LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
SECONDARY CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BEST QPF TOTALS REMAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING POTENTIAL IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

20

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
GFS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF ALSO SHOWING
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL GA MONDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...MOISTURE BEGINS WORKING BACK NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS DIFFERING WITH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. SO HAVE LEFT LOW POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
GA INTO WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE OF NEXT WAVE SHOULD TAKE PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A
WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE TN VALLEY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FAR NORTH GA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING END OF THIS WAVE
ONLY BRUSHES NORTH GA SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BUT
OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. SOME GUIDANCE
POINTS AT 400FT SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUNDAY MORNING CLOSELY. RAIN
WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT AT THE TAF SITES. HAVE MOVED THE TIMING UP
SLIGHTLY IN THE TAFS...BUT MAY STILL BE ON THE SLOW
SIDE...PARTICULARLY AT THE ATL SITES AND AHN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND CIGS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  44  58  54 /   5  90 100  70
ATLANTA         57  46  59  55 /   5  90 100  50
BLAIRSVILLE     56  39  55  49 /   0  70  90  60
CARTERSVILLE    56  45  57  53 /   0  80  90  40
COLUMBUS        63  54  66  60 /  20  90 100  40
GAINESVILLE     54  44  53  50 /   0  90 100  60
MACON           63  54  66  60 /  20 100 100  50
ROME            57  44  59  53 /   0  80  90  40
PEACHTREE CITY  58  48  61  55 /   5  90 100  40
VIDALIA         66  56  69  64 /  20  90  90  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11




000
FXUS62 KFFC 221755 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 953 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO ADJUST THE CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IN ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING LIFTS
OUT INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WEAKER IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY. SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST KEEPS
NORTH GEORGIA SOMEWHAT STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED...ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AGAINST THE RIDGE
WITH MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG LOW-
LEVEL AND DEEP- LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
SECONDARY CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BEST QPF TOTALS REMAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING POTENTIAL IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

20

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
GFS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF ALSO SHOWING
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL GA MONDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...MOISTURE BEGINS WORKING BACK NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS DIFFERING WITH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. SO HAVE LEFT LOW POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
GA INTO WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE OF NEXT WAVE SHOULD TAKE PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A
WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE TN VALLEY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FAR NORTH GA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING END OF THIS WAVE
ONLY BRUSHES NORTH GA SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BUT
OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. SOME GUIDANCE
POINTS AT 400FT SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUNDAY MORNING CLOSELY. RAIN
WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT AT THE TAF SITES. HAVE MOVED THE TIMING UP
SLIGHTLY IN THE TAFS...BUT MAY STILL BE ON THE SLOW
SIDE...PARTICULARLY AT THE ATL SITES AND AHN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND CIGS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  44  58  54 /   5  90 100  70
ATLANTA         57  46  59  55 /   5  90 100  50
BLAIRSVILLE     56  39  55  49 /   0  70  90  60
CARTERSVILLE    56  45  57  53 /   0  80  90  40
COLUMBUS        63  54  66  60 /  20  90 100  40
GAINESVILLE     54  44  53  50 /   0  90 100  60
MACON           63  54  66  60 /  20 100 100  50
ROME            57  44  59  53 /   0  80  90  40
PEACHTREE CITY  58  48  61  55 /   5  90 100  40
VIDALIA         66  56  69  64 /  20  90  90  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11




000
FXUS62 KFFC 221755 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 953 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO ADJUST THE CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IN ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING LIFTS
OUT INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WEAKER IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY. SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST KEEPS
NORTH GEORGIA SOMEWHAT STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED...ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AGAINST THE RIDGE
WITH MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG LOW-
LEVEL AND DEEP- LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
SECONDARY CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BEST QPF TOTALS REMAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING POTENTIAL IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

20

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
GFS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF ALSO SHOWING
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL GA MONDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...MOISTURE BEGINS WORKING BACK NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS DIFFERING WITH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. SO HAVE LEFT LOW POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
GA INTO WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE OF NEXT WAVE SHOULD TAKE PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A
WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE TN VALLEY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FAR NORTH GA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING END OF THIS WAVE
ONLY BRUSHES NORTH GA SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BUT
OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. SOME GUIDANCE
POINTS AT 400FT SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUNDAY MORNING CLOSELY. RAIN
WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT AT THE TAF SITES. HAVE MOVED THE TIMING UP
SLIGHTLY IN THE TAFS...BUT MAY STILL BE ON THE SLOW
SIDE...PARTICULARLY AT THE ATL SITES AND AHN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND CIGS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  44  58  54 /   5  90 100  70
ATLANTA         57  46  59  55 /   5  90 100  50
BLAIRSVILLE     56  39  55  49 /   0  70  90  60
CARTERSVILLE    56  45  57  53 /   0  80  90  40
COLUMBUS        63  54  66  60 /  20  90 100  40
GAINESVILLE     54  44  53  50 /   0  90 100  60
MACON           63  54  66  60 /  20 100 100  50
ROME            57  44  59  53 /   0  80  90  40
PEACHTREE CITY  58  48  61  55 /   5  90 100  40
VIDALIA         66  56  69  64 /  20  90  90  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11




000
FXUS62 KCAE 221542
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1042 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY..WV LOOP SHOWS SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
EWD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING S/W ACROSS NM/W TX. AT THE
SURFACE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS ERN VA/NERN
NC WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH
THE DAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.

TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF
THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE BY
06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA/CSRA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
TOWARDS MORNING. WILL BE RAMPING UP POPS FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WESTERN CWA AS THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
APPROACHING THE REGION AFTER THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY
ON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DROPOFF AFTER SUNSET. THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY TOWARDS
MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND AROUND 40
ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED WELL
BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAN 12Z/18Z RUNS. DUE TO THIS
HAVE INCREASE POPS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. BY THU AND
FRI...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THEN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH 18Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TOWARDS 18Z AND SHIFT
MORE TO THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ALONG WITH SOME
POSSIBLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
TONIGHT AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
ARRIVING AFTER 06Z FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. SOME RAINFALL
RESTRICTIONS MAY ENTER THE CSRA TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 221542
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1042 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY..WV LOOP SHOWS SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
EWD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING S/W ACROSS NM/W TX. AT THE
SURFACE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS ERN VA/NERN
NC WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH
THE DAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.

TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF
THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE BY
06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA/CSRA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
TOWARDS MORNING. WILL BE RAMPING UP POPS FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WESTERN CWA AS THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
APPROACHING THE REGION AFTER THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY
ON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DROPOFF AFTER SUNSET. THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY TOWARDS
MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND AROUND 40
ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED WELL
BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAN 12Z/18Z RUNS. DUE TO THIS
HAVE INCREASE POPS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. BY THU AND
FRI...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THEN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH 18Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TOWARDS 18Z AND SHIFT
MORE TO THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ALONG WITH SOME
POSSIBLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
TONIGHT AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
ARRIVING AFTER 06Z FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. SOME RAINFALL
RESTRICTIONS MAY ENTER THE CSRA TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 221542
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1042 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY..WV LOOP SHOWS SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
EWD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING S/W ACROSS NM/W TX. AT THE
SURFACE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS ERN VA/NERN
NC WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH
THE DAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.

TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF
THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE BY
06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA/CSRA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
TOWARDS MORNING. WILL BE RAMPING UP POPS FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WESTERN CWA AS THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
APPROACHING THE REGION AFTER THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY
ON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DROPOFF AFTER SUNSET. THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY TOWARDS
MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND AROUND 40
ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED WELL
BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAN 12Z/18Z RUNS. DUE TO THIS
HAVE INCREASE POPS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. BY THU AND
FRI...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THEN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH 18Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TOWARDS 18Z AND SHIFT
MORE TO THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ALONG WITH SOME
POSSIBLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
TONIGHT AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
ARRIVING AFTER 06Z FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. SOME RAINFALL
RESTRICTIONS MAY ENTER THE CSRA TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 221542
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1042 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY..WV LOOP SHOWS SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
EWD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING S/W ACROSS NM/W TX. AT THE
SURFACE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS ERN VA/NERN
NC WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH
THE DAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.

TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF
THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE BY
06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA/CSRA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
TOWARDS MORNING. WILL BE RAMPING UP POPS FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WESTERN CWA AS THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
APPROACHING THE REGION AFTER THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY
ON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DROPOFF AFTER SUNSET. THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY TOWARDS
MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND AROUND 40
ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED WELL
BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAN 12Z/18Z RUNS. DUE TO THIS
HAVE INCREASE POPS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. BY THU AND
FRI...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THEN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH 18Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TOWARDS 18Z AND SHIFT
MORE TO THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ALONG WITH SOME
POSSIBLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
TONIGHT AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
ARRIVING AFTER 06Z FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. SOME RAINFALL
RESTRICTIONS MAY ENTER THE CSRA TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 221542
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1042 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY..WV LOOP SHOWS SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
EWD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING S/W ACROSS NM/W TX. AT THE
SURFACE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS ERN VA/NERN
NC WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH
THE DAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.

TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF
THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE BY
06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA/CSRA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
TOWARDS MORNING. WILL BE RAMPING UP POPS FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WESTERN CWA AS THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
APPROACHING THE REGION AFTER THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY
ON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DROPOFF AFTER SUNSET. THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY TOWARDS
MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND AROUND 40
ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED WELL
BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAN 12Z/18Z RUNS. DUE TO THIS
HAVE INCREASE POPS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. BY THU AND
FRI...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THEN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH 18Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TOWARDS 18Z AND SHIFT
MORE TO THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ALONG WITH SOME
POSSIBLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
TONIGHT AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
ARRIVING AFTER 06Z FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. SOME RAINFALL
RESTRICTIONS MAY ENTER THE CSRA TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 221542
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1042 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY..WV LOOP SHOWS SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
EWD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING S/W ACROSS NM/W TX. AT THE
SURFACE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS ERN VA/NERN
NC WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH
THE DAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.

TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF
THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE BY
06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA/CSRA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
TOWARDS MORNING. WILL BE RAMPING UP POPS FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WESTERN CWA AS THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
APPROACHING THE REGION AFTER THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY
ON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DROPOFF AFTER SUNSET. THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY TOWARDS
MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND AROUND 40
ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED WELL
BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAN 12Z/18Z RUNS. DUE TO THIS
HAVE INCREASE POPS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. BY THU AND
FRI...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THEN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH 18Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TOWARDS 18Z AND SHIFT
MORE TO THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ALONG WITH SOME
POSSIBLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
TONIGHT AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
ARRIVING AFTER 06Z FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. SOME RAINFALL
RESTRICTIONS MAY ENTER THE CSRA TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 221530
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1030 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY. STILL LOOKS
DRY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTH AS LOW-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE INCREASE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST...MAINLY ALONG THE GA COAST WHERE GUSTS WILL BE NEAR 25
MPH...BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S NORTH AND WEST
TO THE UPPER 60S GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TONIGHT
AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET FORMS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WELL TO THE WEST. THE STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS SURGING TO
1.5-2 INCHES BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. WARM FRONTOGENESIS WILL INITIATE
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS
WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. THE COMBINATION
OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASSENT ATOP THE DECAYING INLAND WEDGE AND
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING 200-300 HPA
DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL
SUPPORT A STEADILY EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE VARIOUS
GUIDANCE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF WHEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL MOVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ALL ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS
AS THE SUN RISES SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE UTILIZED 30/30/30 BLEND
APPROACH WITH THE VARIOUS MODELS TO CONSTRUCT HOURLY POPS...BUT
MAX POPS WILL RANGE FROM 70-80 PERCENT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY AREA TO 90-100 PERCENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
AND ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE RAIN COULD BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY
AT TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
EMBEDDED TSTMS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND AND
FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ROBUST SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL RAPIDLY LIFT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...PROVIDING THE ENERGY
TO DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A PROMINENT
WARM FRONT DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SYSTEM WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A DECENT TAP INTO ATLANTIC AND
GULF MOISTURE SUPPORTING A SURGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A
RESULT...AND HAVE MAINTAINED RAIN CHANCES UP TO 100 PERCENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. RAIN ACCUMULATION COULD REACH 2 TO 3
INCHES...WITH EVEN SOME POSSIBLE 3 TO 4 INCHES BY THE NIGHTTIME
PERIOD. LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE MAIN FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDES AROUND 8 TO 9 AM AND 8 TO 9 PM. WARM ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE LIFTING FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...WHILE
SOLID WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THICK CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPORT VERY
MILD NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK ZONE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...THE EVENING TIME FRAME COULD BECOME
A LARGER CONCERN REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL. ONSHORE FLOW DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS COULD ASSIST IN STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE...WHILE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGEST WIND FIELDS
COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. MODEL SIMULATED
RADAR REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND A
SECONDARY BAND OF CONVECTION INITIATING JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT
AND ALONG A REGION OF ENHANCED VORTICITY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. A POSSIBLE PSEUDO SQUALL LINE COULD THEN
APPROACH AND BE BETTER TIMED WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 40 TO 50 KT LOW
LEVEL JET AND SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING BULK SHEAR VALUES. ANY
CONVECTION WITH DEEPER UPDRAFTS COULD TAP INTO THESE STRONG WINDS
AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND PERHAPS SUPPORT ANOTHER SMALL
TORNADO THREAT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND THE FORECAST AREA FALLS WITHIN DRIER AIR BETWEEN THE WARM
FRONT AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...GIVEN THE WARM AIR AND ABUNDANT
RAINFALL FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY
FOG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR THE LAND AREAS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE STRONG
GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT SEPARATED FROM
THE PARENT SYSTEM AND NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW AS A RESULT...LIKELY NOT OCCURRING UNTIL
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. A RESIDUAL BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE RAIN CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S DUE TO A WARMER START TO THE
DAY AND WITHIN CONTINUED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT TO BE NOTABLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOW 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST...STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LINGER JUST OFFSHORE...AS WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FEATURE. DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE/FORCING...SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD STILL AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE MEANDERING FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...ONLY REACHING THE MID 60S
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE AXIS OF A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY SWEEP TOWARD THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT ENERGY HELPING TO DEEPEN THE
SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MEANDERING OFFSHORE FRONT.
THE RESULTING LOW SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A NOTABLE COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS
FALLING INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN CLOUDS LOWER AFTER SUNSET
AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEGINS TO INCREASE. EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR
CIGS TO SPREAD SOUTH-NORTH OVERNIGHT...REACHING KCHS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT KSAV AFTER 07Z AS HEAVIER
RAINS MOVE IN. AT KCHS...PRE-FRONTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
09-12Z. LIMITED CONDITIONS TO LOW-END MVFR FOR NOW WITH PREVAILING
4SM BR SCT004 BKN012.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY...AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THERE
IS AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT EARLY MONDAY. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL A COLD FRONT PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE
BY MID WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A RISK OF
WIND SHEAR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...PINCHED GRADIENT CONDITIONS BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND A SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15-25 KT THROUGH THE
DAY WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS HOLDING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WATER WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THE
TIGHTEST. WINDS MAY RELAX A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHOPPY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 3-5 FT OVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS TO 5-7 FT OVER THE REMAINING AREAS. AS
WINDS/SEAS RELAX A BIT TOWARD AFTERNOON WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP
THE ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN SC NEARSHORE WATERS BUT WILL
MAINTAIN FLAGS FOR THE GEORGIA WATERS OUT TO 60 NM THROUGH THE
DAY.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
INLAND WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE COASTAL FRONT EVENTUALLY
MERGES WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...DESPITE LESS THAN PERFECT MIXING
PROFILES IN THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN 15-20 KT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 20-25 KT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A BIT
MORE MIXING. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 4-7 FT NEARSHORE WATERS TO 6-8 FT
OFFSHORE WATERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO AND THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS. WARM ADVECTION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO MIX TO THE OCEAN SURFACE...HOWEVER
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE STILL LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE
EVENTUAL EXPANSION/EXTENSION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS ALL
WATERS. THE RISK FOR ANY MARGINAL GALES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES STILL APPEARS TOO LOW
TO SUPPORT A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE MARINE AREA...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS. SINCE THE SHELF WATERS HAVE COOLED
CONSIDERABLY INTO THE 50S...AS THE WARM AND SATURATED AIR MASS
OVERSPREADS THE AREA...THERE COULD BE A CONCERN FOR LOW STRATUS
BUILD-DOWN AND/OR SEA FOG. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT
AWAY FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY HOW
THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS...ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IS
BECOMING MORE CERTAIN WITH EACH MODEL CYCLE. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PWATS OF 1.5-2 INCHES COUPLED WITH STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE PERIOD.
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS FALLING SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION
OF HEAVY RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON
AND SAVANNAH METRO AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 221530
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1030 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY. STILL LOOKS
DRY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTH AS LOW-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE INCREASE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST...MAINLY ALONG THE GA COAST WHERE GUSTS WILL BE NEAR 25
MPH...BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S NORTH AND WEST
TO THE UPPER 60S GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TONIGHT
AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET FORMS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WELL TO THE WEST. THE STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS SURGING TO
1.5-2 INCHES BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. WARM FRONTOGENESIS WILL INITIATE
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS
WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. THE COMBINATION
OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASSENT ATOP THE DECAYING INLAND WEDGE AND
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING 200-300 HPA
DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL
SUPPORT A STEADILY EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE VARIOUS
GUIDANCE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF WHEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL MOVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ALL ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS
AS THE SUN RISES SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE UTILIZED 30/30/30 BLEND
APPROACH WITH THE VARIOUS MODELS TO CONSTRUCT HOURLY POPS...BUT
MAX POPS WILL RANGE FROM 70-80 PERCENT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY AREA TO 90-100 PERCENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
AND ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE RAIN COULD BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY
AT TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
EMBEDDED TSTMS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND AND
FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ROBUST SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL RAPIDLY LIFT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...PROVIDING THE ENERGY
TO DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A PROMINENT
WARM FRONT DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SYSTEM WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A DECENT TAP INTO ATLANTIC AND
GULF MOISTURE SUPPORTING A SURGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A
RESULT...AND HAVE MAINTAINED RAIN CHANCES UP TO 100 PERCENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. RAIN ACCUMULATION COULD REACH 2 TO 3
INCHES...WITH EVEN SOME POSSIBLE 3 TO 4 INCHES BY THE NIGHTTIME
PERIOD. LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE MAIN FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDES AROUND 8 TO 9 AM AND 8 TO 9 PM. WARM ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE LIFTING FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...WHILE
SOLID WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THICK CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPORT VERY
MILD NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK ZONE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...THE EVENING TIME FRAME COULD BECOME
A LARGER CONCERN REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL. ONSHORE FLOW DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS COULD ASSIST IN STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE...WHILE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGEST WIND FIELDS
COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. MODEL SIMULATED
RADAR REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND A
SECONDARY BAND OF CONVECTION INITIATING JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT
AND ALONG A REGION OF ENHANCED VORTICITY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. A POSSIBLE PSEUDO SQUALL LINE COULD THEN
APPROACH AND BE BETTER TIMED WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 40 TO 50 KT LOW
LEVEL JET AND SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING BULK SHEAR VALUES. ANY
CONVECTION WITH DEEPER UPDRAFTS COULD TAP INTO THESE STRONG WINDS
AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND PERHAPS SUPPORT ANOTHER SMALL
TORNADO THREAT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND THE FORECAST AREA FALLS WITHIN DRIER AIR BETWEEN THE WARM
FRONT AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...GIVEN THE WARM AIR AND ABUNDANT
RAINFALL FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY
FOG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR THE LAND AREAS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE STRONG
GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT SEPARATED FROM
THE PARENT SYSTEM AND NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW AS A RESULT...LIKELY NOT OCCURRING UNTIL
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. A RESIDUAL BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE RAIN CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S DUE TO A WARMER START TO THE
DAY AND WITHIN CONTINUED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT TO BE NOTABLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOW 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST...STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LINGER JUST OFFSHORE...AS WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FEATURE. DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE/FORCING...SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD STILL AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE MEANDERING FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...ONLY REACHING THE MID 60S
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE AXIS OF A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY SWEEP TOWARD THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT ENERGY HELPING TO DEEPEN THE
SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MEANDERING OFFSHORE FRONT.
THE RESULTING LOW SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A NOTABLE COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS
FALLING INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN CLOUDS LOWER AFTER SUNSET
AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEGINS TO INCREASE. EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR
CIGS TO SPREAD SOUTH-NORTH OVERNIGHT...REACHING KCHS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT KSAV AFTER 07Z AS HEAVIER
RAINS MOVE IN. AT KCHS...PRE-FRONTAL FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
09-12Z. LIMITED CONDITIONS TO LOW-END MVFR FOR NOW WITH PREVAILING
4SM BR SCT004 BKN012.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY...AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THERE
IS AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT EARLY MONDAY. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL A COLD FRONT PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE
BY MID WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A RISK OF
WIND SHEAR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...PINCHED GRADIENT CONDITIONS BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND A SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15-25 KT THROUGH THE
DAY WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS HOLDING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WATER WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THE
TIGHTEST. WINDS MAY RELAX A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHOPPY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 3-5 FT OVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS TO 5-7 FT OVER THE REMAINING AREAS. AS
WINDS/SEAS RELAX A BIT TOWARD AFTERNOON WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP
THE ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN SC NEARSHORE WATERS BUT WILL
MAINTAIN FLAGS FOR THE GEORGIA WATERS OUT TO 60 NM THROUGH THE
DAY.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
INLAND WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE COASTAL FRONT EVENTUALLY
MERGES WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...DESPITE LESS THAN PERFECT MIXING
PROFILES IN THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN 15-20 KT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 20-25 KT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A BIT
MORE MIXING. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 4-7 FT NEARSHORE WATERS TO 6-8 FT
OFFSHORE WATERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO AND THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS. WARM ADVECTION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO MIX TO THE OCEAN SURFACE...HOWEVER
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE STILL LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE
EVENTUAL EXPANSION/EXTENSION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS ALL
WATERS. THE RISK FOR ANY MARGINAL GALES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA ZONES STILL APPEARS TOO LOW
TO SUPPORT A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE MARINE AREA...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS. SINCE THE SHELF WATERS HAVE COOLED
CONSIDERABLY INTO THE 50S...AS THE WARM AND SATURATED AIR MASS
OVERSPREADS THE AREA...THERE COULD BE A CONCERN FOR LOW STRATUS
BUILD-DOWN AND/OR SEA FOG. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT
AWAY FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY HOW
THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS...ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IS
BECOMING MORE CERTAIN WITH EACH MODEL CYCLE. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PWATS OF 1.5-2 INCHES COUPLED WITH STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE PERIOD.
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS FALLING SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION
OF HEAVY RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON
AND SAVANNAH METRO AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS62 KFFC 221453 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
953 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO ADJUST THE CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IN ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING LIFTS
OUT INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WEAKER IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY. SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST KEEPS
NORTH GEORGIA SOMEWHAT STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED...ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AGAINST THE RIDGE
WITH MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG LOW-
LEVEL AND DEEP- LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
SECONDARY CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BEST QPF TOTALS REMAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING POTENTIAL IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

20

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
GFS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF ALSO SHOWING
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL GA MONDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...MOISTURE BEGINS WORKING BACK NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS DIFFERING WITH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. SO HAVE LEFT LOW POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
GA INTO WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE OF NEXT WAVE SHOULD TAKE PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A
WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE TN VALLEY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FAR NORTH GA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING END OF THIS WAVE
ONLY BRUSHES NORTH GA SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

41

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 630 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...REACHING THE KCSG AND KMCN TAF SITES
BETWEEN BY 18Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD NORTH AFTER 00Z...REACHING
THE KCSG AND KMCN TAF SITES BY 02/03Z AND THE ATLANTA AREA TAF SITES
BY 04/05Z AND INTO THE KAHN AREA BY 05-06Z. IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. AN AREA OF RAIN WITH
SCATTERED...EMBEDDED SHOWERS SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...THEN CONTINUING PAST THE END OF THIS FORECAST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY 6KTS OR
LESS THROUGH 14Z THEN INCREASING TO 6-10KTS AND EVENTUALLY 8-12KT
AFTER 06Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT ONLY MEDIUM TO HIGH ON TIMING OF
LOWERING CEILINGS AT THE AIRFIELD.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  44  58  54 /   5  90 100  70
ATLANTA         57  46  59  55 /   5  90 100  50
BLAIRSVILLE     56  39  55  49 /   0  70  90  60
CARTERSVILLE    56  45  57  53 /   0  80  90  40
COLUMBUS        63  54  66  60 /  20  90 100  40
GAINESVILLE     54  44  53  50 /   0  90 100  60
MACON           63  54  66  60 /  20 100 100  50
ROME            57  44  59  53 /   0  80  90  40
PEACHTREE CITY  58  48  61  55 /   5  90 100  40
VIDALIA         66  56  69  64 /  20  90  90  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11




000
FXUS62 KFFC 221453 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
953 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO ADJUST THE CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IN ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING LIFTS
OUT INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WEAKER IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY. SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST KEEPS
NORTH GEORGIA SOMEWHAT STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED...ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AGAINST THE RIDGE
WITH MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG LOW-
LEVEL AND DEEP- LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
SECONDARY CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BEST QPF TOTALS REMAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING POTENTIAL IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

20

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
GFS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF ALSO SHOWING
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL GA MONDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...MOISTURE BEGINS WORKING BACK NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS DIFFERING WITH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. SO HAVE LEFT LOW POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
GA INTO WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE OF NEXT WAVE SHOULD TAKE PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A
WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE TN VALLEY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FAR NORTH GA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING END OF THIS WAVE
ONLY BRUSHES NORTH GA SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

41

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 630 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...REACHING THE KCSG AND KMCN TAF SITES
BETWEEN BY 18Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD NORTH AFTER 00Z...REACHING
THE KCSG AND KMCN TAF SITES BY 02/03Z AND THE ATLANTA AREA TAF SITES
BY 04/05Z AND INTO THE KAHN AREA BY 05-06Z. IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. AN AREA OF RAIN WITH
SCATTERED...EMBEDDED SHOWERS SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...THEN CONTINUING PAST THE END OF THIS FORECAST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY 6KTS OR
LESS THROUGH 14Z THEN INCREASING TO 6-10KTS AND EVENTUALLY 8-12KT
AFTER 06Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT ONLY MEDIUM TO HIGH ON TIMING OF
LOWERING CEILINGS AT THE AIRFIELD.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  44  58  54 /   5  90 100  70
ATLANTA         57  46  59  55 /   5  90 100  50
BLAIRSVILLE     56  39  55  49 /   0  70  90  60
CARTERSVILLE    56  45  57  53 /   0  80  90  40
COLUMBUS        63  54  66  60 /  20  90 100  40
GAINESVILLE     54  44  53  50 /   0  90 100  60
MACON           63  54  66  60 /  20 100 100  50
ROME            57  44  59  53 /   0  80  90  40
PEACHTREE CITY  58  48  61  55 /   5  90 100  40
VIDALIA         66  56  69  64 /  20  90  90  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11



000
FXUS62 KCAE 221144
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
644 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
PLENTY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL
NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING EWD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING S/W ACROSS NM/W TX.
AT THE SURFACE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS ERN
VA/NERN NC WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
THROUGH THE DAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...S/W ACROSS NM/TX CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD AND MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDING BEGINS TO PUSH OFF THE COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE NC/VA COAST BUT CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA. BY
SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH THIS
EVENING TO WELL ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0
INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN
CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM
FRONT TRIES TO MOVE NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE
PALMETTO STATE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
WHERE THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED
ISOLATED TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN
PORTION OF THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
IN THE PLAINS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE
VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM
THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED WELL BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY
WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR
SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM
FRONT PUSHES NWD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON
MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAN 12Z/18Z RUNS. DUE TO THIS
HAVE INCREASE POPS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. BY THU AND
FRI...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THEN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH 18Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AFTER 15Z AND SHIFT
MORE TO THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ALONG WITH SOME
POSSIBLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
TONIGHT AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
ARRIVING AFTER 06Z FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 221144
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
644 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
PLENTY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL
NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING EWD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING S/W ACROSS NM/W TX.
AT THE SURFACE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS ERN
VA/NERN NC WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
THROUGH THE DAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...S/W ACROSS NM/TX CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD AND MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDING BEGINS TO PUSH OFF THE COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE NC/VA COAST BUT CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA. BY
SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH THIS
EVENING TO WELL ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0
INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN
CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM
FRONT TRIES TO MOVE NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE
PALMETTO STATE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
WHERE THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED
ISOLATED TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN
PORTION OF THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
IN THE PLAINS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE
VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM
THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED WELL BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY
WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR
SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM
FRONT PUSHES NWD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON
MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAN 12Z/18Z RUNS. DUE TO THIS
HAVE INCREASE POPS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. BY THU AND
FRI...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THEN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH 18Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AFTER 15Z AND SHIFT
MORE TO THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ALONG WITH SOME
POSSIBLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
TONIGHT AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
ARRIVING AFTER 06Z FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 221131 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
630 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING LIFTS OUT
INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAKER
IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT
WAVE BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
SUNDAY. SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST KEEPS NORTH GEORGIA
SOMEWHAT STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH ISOLATED...ELEVATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT STALLS
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AGAINST THE RIDGE WITH MARGINAL TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. SECONDARY CONCERN IS
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BEST QPF TOTALS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING POTENTIAL IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

20


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF ALSO SHOWING
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL GA MONDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...MOISTURE BEGINS WORKING BACK NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS DIFFERING WITH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. SO HAVE LEFT LOW POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
GA INTO WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE OF NEXT WAVE SHOULD TAKE PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A
WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE TN VALLEY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FAR NORTH GA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING END OF THIS WAVE
ONLY BRUSHES NORTH GA SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.


41


&&


AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...REACHING THE KCSG AND KMCN TAF SITES
BETWEEN BY 18Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD NORTH AFTER 00Z...REACHING
THE KCSG AND KMCN TAF SITES BY 02/03Z AND THE ATLANTA AREA TAF SITES
BY 04/05Z AND INTO THE KAHN AREA BY 05-06Z. IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. AN AREA OF RAIN WITH
SCATTERED...EMBEDDED SHOWERS SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...THEN CONTINUING PAST THE END OF THIS FORECAST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY 6KTS OR
LESS THROUGH 14Z THEN INCREASING TO 6-10KTS AND EVENTUALLY 8-12KT
AFTER 06Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT ONLY MEDIUM TO HIGH ON TIMING OF
LOWERING CEILINGS AT THE AIRFIELD.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  44  58  54 /   5  90 100  70
ATLANTA         57  46  59  55 /   5  90 100  50
BLAIRSVILLE     56  39  55  49 /   0  70  90  60
CARTERSVILLE    56  45  57  53 /   0  80  90  40
COLUMBUS        63  54  66  60 /  20  90 100  40
GAINESVILLE     54  44  53  50 /   0  90 100  60
MACON           63  54  66  60 /  20 100 100  50
ROME            57  44  59  53 /   0  80  90  40
PEACHTREE CITY  58  48  61  55 /   5  90 100  40
VIDALIA         66  56  69  64 /  20  90  90  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20



000
FXUS62 KFFC 221131 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
630 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING LIFTS OUT
INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAKER
IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT
WAVE BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
SUNDAY. SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST KEEPS NORTH GEORGIA
SOMEWHAT STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH ISOLATED...ELEVATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT STALLS
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AGAINST THE RIDGE WITH MARGINAL TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. SECONDARY CONCERN IS
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BEST QPF TOTALS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING POTENTIAL IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

20


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF ALSO SHOWING
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL GA MONDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...MOISTURE BEGINS WORKING BACK NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS DIFFERING WITH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. SO HAVE LEFT LOW POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
GA INTO WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE OF NEXT WAVE SHOULD TAKE PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A
WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE TN VALLEY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FAR NORTH GA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING END OF THIS WAVE
ONLY BRUSHES NORTH GA SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.


41


&&


AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...REACHING THE KCSG AND KMCN TAF SITES
BETWEEN BY 18Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD NORTH AFTER 00Z...REACHING
THE KCSG AND KMCN TAF SITES BY 02/03Z AND THE ATLANTA AREA TAF SITES
BY 04/05Z AND INTO THE KAHN AREA BY 05-06Z. IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. AN AREA OF RAIN WITH
SCATTERED...EMBEDDED SHOWERS SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...THEN CONTINUING PAST THE END OF THIS FORECAST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY 6KTS OR
LESS THROUGH 14Z THEN INCREASING TO 6-10KTS AND EVENTUALLY 8-12KT
AFTER 06Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT ONLY MEDIUM TO HIGH ON TIMING OF
LOWERING CEILINGS AT THE AIRFIELD.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  44  58  54 /   5  90 100  70
ATLANTA         57  46  59  55 /   5  90 100  50
BLAIRSVILLE     56  39  55  49 /   0  70  90  60
CARTERSVILLE    56  45  57  53 /   0  80  90  40
COLUMBUS        63  54  66  60 /  20  90 100  40
GAINESVILLE     54  44  53  50 /   0  90 100  60
MACON           63  54  66  60 /  20 100 100  50
ROME            57  44  59  53 /   0  80  90  40
PEACHTREE CITY  58  48  61  55 /   5  90 100  40
VIDALIA         66  56  69  64 /  20  90  90  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KCHS 221048
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
548 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...HEAVY RAINS WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN PINNED BETWEEN AND AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND A SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. THIS
CONFIGURATION WILL SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST...
ESPECIALLY FROM HILTON SOUTH TO SAPELO ISLAND THROUGH THE DAY WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASSENT DEVELOPING ATOP THE WEDGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE DRY MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS AND
HIGH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO DEVELOP WITH MOST OF THE
290-295K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE GOING TOWARDS CLOUD PRODUCTION. EXPECT
SUNNY SKIES TO DOMINATE THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF A FEW MARINE
BASED STRATOCUMULUS MOVING ONSHORE...WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER
SPREADING IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...THE COLUMN LOOKS TO DRY TO SUPPORT RAIN...SO GRIDDED POPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTH. THIS IS A SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 22/00Z GUIDANCE MEAN AS
HIGHS HAVE BEEN RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

FOR THE SUNRISE UPDATE...
* LOWERED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
  RAISED THEM INTO THE LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW
  IS THE STRONGEST.
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
* LOWERED SKY COVER PERCENTAGES SLIGHTLY AS CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO
  ARRIVE.
* INCREASED WINDS ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST SLIGHTLY PER COASTAL
  REPORTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TONIGHT
AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET FORMS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WELL TO THE WEST. THE STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS SURGING TO
1.5-2 INCHES BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. WARM FRONTOGENESIS WILL INITIATE
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS
WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. THE COMBINATION
OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASSENT ATOP THE DECAYING INLAND WEDGE AND
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING 200-300 HPA
DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL
SUPPORT A STEADILY EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE VARIOUS
GUIDANCE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF WHEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL MOVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ALL ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS
AS THE SUN RISES SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE UTILIZED 30/30/30 BLEND
APPROACH WITH THE VARIOUS MODELS TO CONSTRUCT HOURLY POPS...BUT
MAX POPS WILL RANGE FROM 70-80 PERCENT ACROSS THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY AREA TO 90-100 PERCENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
AND ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE RAIN COULD BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY
AT TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
EMBEDDED TSTMS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND AND
FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ROBUST SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL RAPIDLY LIFT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...PROVIDING THE ENERGY
TO DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A PROMINENT
WARM FRONT DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SYSTEM WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A DECENT TAP INTO ATLANTIC AND
GULF MOISTURE SUPPORTING A SURGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A
RESULT...AND HAVE MAINTAINED RAIN CHANCES UP TO 100 PERCENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. RAIN ACCUMULATION COULD REACH 2 TO 3
INCHES...WITH EVEN SOME POSSIBLE 3 TO 4 INCHES BY THE NIGHTTIME
PERIOD. LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE MAIN FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDES AROUND 8 TO 9 AM AND 8 TO 9 PM. WARM ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE LIFTING FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...WHILE
SOLID WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THICK CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPORT VERY
MILD NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK ZONE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...THE EVENING TIME FRAME COULD BECOME
A LARGER CONCERN REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL. ONSHORE FLOW DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS COULD ASSIST IN STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE...WHILE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGEST WIND FIELDS
COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. MODEL SIMULATED
RADAR REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND A
SECONDARY BAND OF CONVECTION INITIATING JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT
AND ALONG A REGION OF ENHANCED VORTICITY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE. A POSSIBLE PSEUDO SQUALL LINE COULD THEN
APPROACH AND BE BETTER TIMED WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 40 TO 50 KT LOW
LEVEL JET AND SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING BULK SHEAR VALUES. ANY
CONVECTION WITH DEEPER UPDRAFTS COULD TAP INTO THESE STRONG WINDS
AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND PERHAPS SUPPORT ANOTHER SMALL
TORNADO THREAT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND THE FORECAST AREA FALLS WITHIN DRIER AIR BETWEEN THE WARM
FRONT AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...GIVEN THE WARM AIR AND ABUNDANT
RAINFALL FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY
FOG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR THE LAND AREAS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE STRONG
GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT SEPARATED FROM
THE PARENT SYSTEM AND NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW AS A RESULT...LIKELY NOT OCCURRING UNTIL
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. A RESIDUAL BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE RAIN CHANCES
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S DUE TO A WARMER START TO THE
DAY AND WITHIN CONTINUED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT TO BE NOTABLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOW 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST...STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LINGER JUST OFFSHORE...AS WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FEATURE. DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE/FORCING...SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD STILL AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE MEANDERING FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...ONLY REACHING THE MID 60S
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE AXIS OF A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY SWEEP TO