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000
FXUS62 KFFC 190115
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
915 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE LIMITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER AS ANY ISOLATED CELLS HAVE BEEN JUST
SHOWERS THIS EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN UPSTREAM FLOW AND SOME
ASSOCIATED SCATTERED CONVECTION IN WESTERN ALABAMA LOOKS TO
DIMINISH BEFORE BEING OF ANY CONCERN TO THE CWA OVERNIGHT SO HAVE
KEPT OUT POPS BUT EVOLUTION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IF SOME LOW
END CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN PORTIONS IF ENOUGH IS ABLE TO
HOLD TOGETHER. STORMS IN ALABAMA APPEAR WIDELY DISORGANIZED
HOWEVER. OTHERWISE HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE
SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE FROM REMNANT ACTIVITY TO THE WEST AND
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS. WEDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING IN
FROM NE ACROSS CAROLINAS AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP EYE ON LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MORNING AS GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME ENHANCED
975MB RH ACCOMPANYING THE WEDGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION INTO WEAK ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES TODAY.  AS THIS HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...A
WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AND INTO SATURDAY.  ALL
OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEDGE DEVELOPING.  CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE WEDGE TOMORROW AM AND ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WITH THE WEDGE AND A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA...THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND EVEN THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CWA. HIRES MODELS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED AND THAT THE CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE LOW.  ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE CWA.  NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONG AT THIS TIME.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...USED CONSALL FOR THE SHORT TERM
TEMPERATURES AND TWEAKED THE HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY SATURDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WEDGE.

ARG

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST MODEL TRENDS...PARTICULARLY WITH THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. OVERALL FORECAST TRENDS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK...AND
WHOLE-SCALE CHANGES WERE AVOIDED. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

/ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH A SLIGHTLY THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NE. THIS WEDGE WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT NOT MUCH
EXPECTED. THIS WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE NW MONDAY MORNING. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH
GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THIS NEXT FRONT EXITS THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES THROUGH DAY 7.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS AFTER
09-11Z...POSSIBLY IFR FOR NORTHERN SITES. KAHN HAS BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS AND WITH REDUCED MVFR VSBYS. SHOULD IMPROVE AND LIFT AFTER
ABOUT 14-15Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB BECOMING NE OVERNIGHT AND
STAYING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CU FIELD LIKELY STAYING SCT WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR BKN NEAR KMCN IN 4-5 KFT RANGE FOR AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. PRECIP CHANCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF BUT BEST CHANCE
WILL BE NEAR KMCN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
LOW ON MORNING CIGS.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  81  62  80 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         65  83  64  79 /  10  20  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     56  77  58  76 /  20  20  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    61  84  63  80 /  10  20  10   5
COLUMBUS        67  89  66  82 /  10  20  10  10
GAINESVILLE     62  80  62  78 /  20  20  20  10
MACON           65  86  64  82 /  10  20  20  20
ROME            60  86  62  83 /  10  20  10   0
PEACHTREE CITY  61  84  62  79 /  10  20  10  10
VIDALIA         68  85  67  83 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ARG/BAKER
LONG TERM...01/31
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS62 KFFC 190115
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
915 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE LIMITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER AS ANY ISOLATED CELLS HAVE BEEN JUST
SHOWERS THIS EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN UPSTREAM FLOW AND SOME
ASSOCIATED SCATTERED CONVECTION IN WESTERN ALABAMA LOOKS TO
DIMINISH BEFORE BEING OF ANY CONCERN TO THE CWA OVERNIGHT SO HAVE
KEPT OUT POPS BUT EVOLUTION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IF SOME LOW
END CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN PORTIONS IF ENOUGH IS ABLE TO
HOLD TOGETHER. STORMS IN ALABAMA APPEAR WIDELY DISORGANIZED
HOWEVER. OTHERWISE HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE
SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE FROM REMNANT ACTIVITY TO THE WEST AND
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS. WEDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING IN
FROM NE ACROSS CAROLINAS AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP EYE ON LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MORNING AS GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME ENHANCED
975MB RH ACCOMPANYING THE WEDGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION INTO WEAK ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES TODAY.  AS THIS HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...A
WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AND INTO SATURDAY.  ALL
OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEDGE DEVELOPING.  CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE WEDGE TOMORROW AM AND ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WITH THE WEDGE AND A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA...THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND EVEN THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CWA. HIRES MODELS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED AND THAT THE CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE LOW.  ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE CWA.  NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONG AT THIS TIME.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...USED CONSALL FOR THE SHORT TERM
TEMPERATURES AND TWEAKED THE HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY SATURDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WEDGE.

ARG

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST MODEL TRENDS...PARTICULARLY WITH THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. OVERALL FORECAST TRENDS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK...AND
WHOLE-SCALE CHANGES WERE AVOIDED. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

/ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH A SLIGHTLY THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NE. THIS WEDGE WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT NOT MUCH
EXPECTED. THIS WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE NW MONDAY MORNING. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH
GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THIS NEXT FRONT EXITS THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES THROUGH DAY 7.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS AFTER
09-11Z...POSSIBLY IFR FOR NORTHERN SITES. KAHN HAS BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS AND WITH REDUCED MVFR VSBYS. SHOULD IMPROVE AND LIFT AFTER
ABOUT 14-15Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB BECOMING NE OVERNIGHT AND
STAYING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CU FIELD LIKELY STAYING SCT WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR BKN NEAR KMCN IN 4-5 KFT RANGE FOR AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. PRECIP CHANCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF BUT BEST CHANCE
WILL BE NEAR KMCN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
LOW ON MORNING CIGS.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  81  62  80 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         65  83  64  79 /  10  20  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     56  77  58  76 /  20  20  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    61  84  63  80 /  10  20  10   5
COLUMBUS        67  89  66  82 /  10  20  10  10
GAINESVILLE     62  80  62  78 /  20  20  20  10
MACON           65  86  64  82 /  10  20  20  20
ROME            60  86  62  83 /  10  20  10   0
PEACHTREE CITY  61  84  62  79 /  10  20  10  10
VIDALIA         68  85  67  83 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ARG/BAKER
LONG TERM...01/31
AVIATION...BAKER





  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCAE 190108
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
908 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AND LIFT NORTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COMPARED TO THE STRONG
STORMS THAT WE HAD YESTERDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY
DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN MAY BE IMPACTED BY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW OVER OVER GEORGIA ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN TO FILL AND LIFT NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER COASTAL GEORGIA IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH COUPLED
WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CSRA.
THE NAM MODEL INDICATED STRONGER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...THUS
HIGHER POPS THAN THE GFS. HAVE TRENDED WITH MOS GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHER POPS...MAINLY DIURNAL...FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PERIOD.

HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY UNDER THE
WEDGE-LIKE SETUP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S
SOUTH. WENT WITH CONSENSUS FOR LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT SUNDAY AS THE H850 FLOW BECOME DOWNSLOPE.
PWAT DECEASES TO AROUND ONE INCH WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. KEPT DRY
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS STILL
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE NATION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY DRAGGING THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS MONDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO
UPPER 80S SOUTH.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 5 TO 7 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY. GFS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO BELOW THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SLOW RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 190108
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
908 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AND LIFT NORTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COMPARED TO THE STRONG
STORMS THAT WE HAD YESTERDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY
DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN MAY BE IMPACTED BY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW OVER OVER GEORGIA ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN TO FILL AND LIFT NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER COASTAL GEORGIA IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH COUPLED
WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CSRA.
THE NAM MODEL INDICATED STRONGER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...THUS
HIGHER POPS THAN THE GFS. HAVE TRENDED WITH MOS GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHER POPS...MAINLY DIURNAL...FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PERIOD.

HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY UNDER THE
WEDGE-LIKE SETUP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S
SOUTH. WENT WITH CONSENSUS FOR LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT SUNDAY AS THE H850 FLOW BECOME DOWNSLOPE.
PWAT DECEASES TO AROUND ONE INCH WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. KEPT DRY
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS STILL
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE NATION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY DRAGGING THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS MONDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO
UPPER 80S SOUTH.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 5 TO 7 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY. GFS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO BELOW THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SLOW RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 190008
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
808 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION INTO WEAK ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES TODAY.  AS THIS HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...A
WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AND INTO SATURDAY.  ALL
OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEDGE DEVELOPING.  CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE WEDGE TOMORROW AM AND ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WITH THE WEDGE AND A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA...THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND EVEN THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CWA. HIRES MODELS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED AND THAT THE CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE LOW.  ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE CWA.  NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONG AT THIS TIME.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...USED CONSALL FOR THE SHORT TERM
TEMPERATURES AND TWEAKED THE HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY SATURDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WEDGE.

ARG

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST MODEL TRENDS...PARTICULARLY WITH THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. OVERALL FORECAST TRENDS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK...AND
WHOLE-SCALE CHANGES WERE AVOIDED. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

/ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH A SLIGHTLY THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NE. THIS WEDGE WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT NOT MUCH
EXPECTED. THIS WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE NW MONDAY MORNING. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH
GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THIS NEXT FRONT EXITS THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES THROUGH DAY 7.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS AFTER
09-11Z...POSSIBLY IFR FOR NORTHERN SITES. KAHN HAS BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS AND WITH REDUCED MVFR VSBYS. SHOULD IMPROVE AND LIFT AFTER
ABOUT 14-15Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB BECOMING NE OVERNIGHT AND
STAYING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CU FIELD LIKELY STAYING SCT WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR BKN NEAR KMCN IN 4-5 KFT RANGE FOR AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. PRECIP CHANCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF BUT BEST CHANCE
WILL BE NEAR KMCN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
LOW ON MORNING CIGS.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  81  62  80 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         65  83  64  79 /  10  20  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     56  77  58  76 /  10  20  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    61  84  63  80 /  10  20  10   5
COLUMBUS        67  89  66  82 /  10  20  10  10
GAINESVILLE     62  80  62  78 /  10  20  20  10
MACON           65  86  64  82 /  20  20  20  20
ROME            60  86  62  83 /  10  20  10   0
PEACHTREE CITY  61  84  62  79 /  10  20  10  10
VIDALIA         68  85  67  83 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....01/31
AVIATION...BAKER





  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCHS 182328
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
728 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY DRYER AND COOLER CONDITIONS.
ALOFT WE FIND A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

KNOCK ON WOOD...BUT IT/S BEEN A QUIETER EVENING THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...WITH LESS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS HAVING OCCURRED SO
FAR. HOWEVER...THE SEA BREEZE HAS SPURRED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION NEAR THE US-17 CORRIDOR...AND WHILE MUCH OF THIS WILL
FADE WITH NOCTURNAL INFLUENCES TAKING OVER...A LITTLE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION NEAR ALLENDALE COUNTY MOVING EAST/SE MAY MERGE WITH
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS HEADING INLAND LATE THIS EVENING/ WE/LL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR A FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION AGAIN IN PARTS OF INTERIOR
SC SHOULD THIS OCCUR.

OVERNIGHT WITHIN A LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FETCH AND THE RESULTING
CONVERGENCE WE ANTICIPATE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
T-STORMS TO REDEVELOP...MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF US-17. OVERALL WE
HAVE POPS NO MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

WE HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST INLAND SECTIONS AFTER 3
OR 4 AM...IN SYNC WITH THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
AND FURTHER REMOVED FROM ANY MIXING WITH THE ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES.
IF SKIES REMAIN VOID OF TOO MUCH CLOUDS LONG ENOUGH WE MIGHT NEED
TO BUMP COVERAGE INTO AREAS OF FOG LATER ON...WITH EVEN A RISK OF
LOCALLY DENSE CONDITIONS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...MAINLY 65-70...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LOWER 70S EAST OF THE INTRA-COASTAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BAGGY TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO CLOSE OFF
INTO A BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL FEATURES WILL BE IN PLAY
INCLUDING HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND A
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LARGER SCALE
STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME UNIFORMLY EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED WILL RESULT IN PWATS INCREASING TO
AROUND 1.75 INCHES LATE. MODELS SHOW THE SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH
PUSHING BACK TO THE WEST WITH TIME AND BRINGING WITH IT ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE COAST SO THE HIGHEST POPS ARE OVER THE WATERS AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...BUT HAVE GENERALLY BEEN HELD IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT...POPS INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY RANGE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE THE MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE ALIGN THE
BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE KEPT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WHICH IS
ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN
BACK UP AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE HEIGHT
FALLS TO THE NORTH FROM A VIGOROUS TROUGH DIVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
BE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS DISAGREE A BIT ON THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...BUT THEY DO AGREE THAT IT WILL BE WELL
OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND WILL STEADILY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NHC CURRENTLY GIVES THIS SYSTEM A
LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. FROM A PRECIPITATION
STANDPOINT...ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PRIMARILY BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AND ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR AREAS
FURTHER EAST. THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH WILL DRIVE A FRESHENING NORTHEAST FLOW...ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES ON MONDAY...HELPING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE TO CAP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ORIGINS
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY WARM SEVERAL DEGREES WITHIN FRONTAL
COMPRESSION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY
COOL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK TO ONLY
PEAK IN THE LOW 80S. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNLESS SOME UNFORESEEN BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SPUR A LITTLE
CONVECTION THIS EVENING WE ANTICIPATE THAT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV.

A DEEPENING AND MODERATE EASTERLY FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL
GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND MAYBE A TSRA DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE ANYTHING WORSE THAN LOW-
END VFR CEILINGS AT THIS TIME...BUT SUB-VFR WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

DEPENDING UPON HOW THICK THE CLOUD COVER GETS ON FRIDAY WE DO
EXPECT SOME EAST/NE WIND GUSTS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A LARGE 1027 MB HIGH DROPPING SE THROUGH SE CANADA WILL
EXTEND SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE...RESULTING IN STEADILY
RISING PRESSURES AND FAIRLY CONSTANT NE AND EAST WINDS AT LESS
THAN 10 OR 12 KT ACROSS THE MARINE COMMUNITY. THE WAVE SPECTRUM
WILL REMAIN WITH GENERALLY LONG PERIOD SWELL ENERGY...WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS HOLDING AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR EDISTO...BEAIFORT...UNTING ISLAND AND HILTON
ISLAND THIS EVENING WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...HEAVY RAIN
AND WIND GUSTS PAST 35 KT. THEN FOR LATER TONIGHT WE/RE MAINTAINING
A WEATHER WATCH FOR A FEW MORE POSSIBLE STRONG T-STORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE EAST A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THANKS TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
THE STRONGEST PERIOD FOR WINDS/SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH QUIETER EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LINGERING BACK SWELL FROM TC EDOUARD WILL STILL
IMPACT THE BEACHES FRIDAY...AND THAT ALONG WITH STRONGER NE AND
EAST WINDS WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES. AN ELEVATED RISK MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER PINCHED WITH ENHANCED NE AND EAST WINDS
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...INCREASED TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...DEPARTURES MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TIDE LEVELS APPROACHING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDES THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE CLOSEST AS
THAT IS WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. TO REACH COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...DEPARTURES WOULD HAVE TO ABOUT 1.2 FEET
WHICH IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
POTENTIAL...NO MENTION WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 182328
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
728 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY DRYER AND COOLER CONDITIONS.
ALOFT WE FIND A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

KNOCK ON WOOD...BUT IT/S BEEN A QUIETER EVENING THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...WITH LESS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS HAVING OCCURRED SO
FAR. HOWEVER...THE SEA BREEZE HAS SPURRED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION NEAR THE US-17 CORRIDOR...AND WHILE MUCH OF THIS WILL
FADE WITH NOCTURNAL INFLUENCES TAKING OVER...A LITTLE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION NEAR ALLENDALE COUNTY MOVING EAST/SE MAY MERGE WITH
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS HEADING INLAND LATE THIS EVENING/ WE/LL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR A FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION AGAIN IN PARTS OF INTERIOR
SC SHOULD THIS OCCUR.

OVERNIGHT WITHIN A LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FETCH AND THE RESULTING
CONVERGENCE WE ANTICIPATE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
T-STORMS TO REDEVELOP...MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF US-17. OVERALL WE
HAVE POPS NO MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

WE HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST INLAND SECTIONS AFTER 3
OR 4 AM...IN SYNC WITH THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
AND FURTHER REMOVED FROM ANY MIXING WITH THE ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES.
IF SKIES REMAIN VOID OF TOO MUCH CLOUDS LONG ENOUGH WE MIGHT NEED
TO BUMP COVERAGE INTO AREAS OF FOG LATER ON...WITH EVEN A RISK OF
LOCALLY DENSE CONDITIONS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...MAINLY 65-70...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LOWER 70S EAST OF THE INTRA-COASTAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BAGGY TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO CLOSE OFF
INTO A BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL FEATURES WILL BE IN PLAY
INCLUDING HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND A
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LARGER SCALE
STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME UNIFORMLY EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED WILL RESULT IN PWATS INCREASING TO
AROUND 1.75 INCHES LATE. MODELS SHOW THE SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH
PUSHING BACK TO THE WEST WITH TIME AND BRINGING WITH IT ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE COAST SO THE HIGHEST POPS ARE OVER THE WATERS AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...BUT HAVE GENERALLY BEEN HELD IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT...POPS INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY RANGE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE THE MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE ALIGN THE
BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE KEPT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WHICH IS
ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN
BACK UP AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE HEIGHT
FALLS TO THE NORTH FROM A VIGOROUS TROUGH DIVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
BE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS DISAGREE A BIT ON THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...BUT THEY DO AGREE THAT IT WILL BE WELL
OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND WILL STEADILY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NHC CURRENTLY GIVES THIS SYSTEM A
LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. FROM A PRECIPITATION
STANDPOINT...ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PRIMARILY BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AND ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR AREAS
FURTHER EAST. THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH WILL DRIVE A FRESHENING NORTHEAST FLOW...ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES ON MONDAY...HELPING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE TO CAP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ORIGINS
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY WARM SEVERAL DEGREES WITHIN FRONTAL
COMPRESSION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY
COOL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK TO ONLY
PEAK IN THE LOW 80S. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNLESS SOME UNFORESEEN BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SPUR A LITTLE
CONVECTION THIS EVENING WE ANTICIPATE THAT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV.

A DEEPENING AND MODERATE EASTERLY FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL
GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND MAYBE A TSRA DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE ANYTHING WORSE THAN LOW-
END VFR CEILINGS AT THIS TIME...BUT SUB-VFR WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

DEPENDING UPON HOW THICK THE CLOUD COVER GETS ON FRIDAY WE DO
EXPECT SOME EAST/NE WIND GUSTS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A LARGE 1027 MB HIGH DROPPING SE THROUGH SE CANADA WILL
EXTEND SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE...RESULTING IN STEADILY
RISING PRESSURES AND FAIRLY CONSTANT NE AND EAST WINDS AT LESS
THAN 10 OR 12 KT ACROSS THE MARINE COMMUNITY. THE WAVE SPECTRUM
WILL REMAIN WITH GENERALLY LONG PERIOD SWELL ENERGY...WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS HOLDING AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR EDISTO...BEAIFORT...UNTING ISLAND AND HILTON
ISLAND THIS EVENING WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...HEAVY RAIN
AND WIND GUSTS PAST 35 KT. THEN FOR LATER TONIGHT WE/RE MAINTAINING
A WEATHER WATCH FOR A FEW MORE POSSIBLE STRONG T-STORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE EAST A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THANKS TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
THE STRONGEST PERIOD FOR WINDS/SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH QUIETER EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LINGERING BACK SWELL FROM TC EDOUARD WILL STILL
IMPACT THE BEACHES FRIDAY...AND THAT ALONG WITH STRONGER NE AND
EAST WINDS WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES. AN ELEVATED RISK MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER PINCHED WITH ENHANCED NE AND EAST WINDS
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...INCREASED TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...DEPARTURES MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TIDE LEVELS APPROACHING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDES THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE CLOSEST AS
THAT IS WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. TO REACH COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...DEPARTURES WOULD HAVE TO ABOUT 1.2 FEET
WHICH IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
POTENTIAL...NO MENTION WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 182328
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
728 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY DRYER AND COOLER CONDITIONS.
ALOFT WE FIND A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

KNOCK ON WOOD...BUT IT/S BEEN A QUIETER EVENING THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...WITH LESS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS HAVING OCCURRED SO
FAR. HOWEVER...THE SEA BREEZE HAS SPURRED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION NEAR THE US-17 CORRIDOR...AND WHILE MUCH OF THIS WILL
FADE WITH NOCTURNAL INFLUENCES TAKING OVER...A LITTLE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION NEAR ALLENDALE COUNTY MOVING EAST/SE MAY MERGE WITH
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS HEADING INLAND LATE THIS EVENING/ WE/LL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR A FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION AGAIN IN PARTS OF INTERIOR
SC SHOULD THIS OCCUR.

OVERNIGHT WITHIN A LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FETCH AND THE RESULTING
CONVERGENCE WE ANTICIPATE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
T-STORMS TO REDEVELOP...MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF US-17. OVERALL WE
HAVE POPS NO MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

WE HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST INLAND SECTIONS AFTER 3
OR 4 AM...IN SYNC WITH THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
AND FURTHER REMOVED FROM ANY MIXING WITH THE ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES.
IF SKIES REMAIN VOID OF TOO MUCH CLOUDS LONG ENOUGH WE MIGHT NEED
TO BUMP COVERAGE INTO AREAS OF FOG LATER ON...WITH EVEN A RISK OF
LOCALLY DENSE CONDITIONS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...MAINLY 65-70...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LOWER 70S EAST OF THE INTRA-COASTAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BAGGY TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO CLOSE OFF
INTO A BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL FEATURES WILL BE IN PLAY
INCLUDING HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND A
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LARGER SCALE
STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME UNIFORMLY EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED WILL RESULT IN PWATS INCREASING TO
AROUND 1.75 INCHES LATE. MODELS SHOW THE SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH
PUSHING BACK TO THE WEST WITH TIME AND BRINGING WITH IT ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE COAST SO THE HIGHEST POPS ARE OVER THE WATERS AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...BUT HAVE GENERALLY BEEN HELD IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT...POPS INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY RANGE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE THE MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE ALIGN THE
BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE KEPT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WHICH IS
ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN
BACK UP AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE HEIGHT
FALLS TO THE NORTH FROM A VIGOROUS TROUGH DIVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
BE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS DISAGREE A BIT ON THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...BUT THEY DO AGREE THAT IT WILL BE WELL
OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND WILL STEADILY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NHC CURRENTLY GIVES THIS SYSTEM A
LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. FROM A PRECIPITATION
STANDPOINT...ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PRIMARILY BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AND ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR AREAS
FURTHER EAST. THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH WILL DRIVE A FRESHENING NORTHEAST FLOW...ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES ON MONDAY...HELPING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE TO CAP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ORIGINS
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY WARM SEVERAL DEGREES WITHIN FRONTAL
COMPRESSION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY
COOL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK TO ONLY
PEAK IN THE LOW 80S. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNLESS SOME UNFORESEEN BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SPUR A LITTLE
CONVECTION THIS EVENING WE ANTICIPATE THAT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV.

A DEEPENING AND MODERATE EASTERLY FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL
GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND MAYBE A TSRA DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE ANYTHING WORSE THAN LOW-
END VFR CEILINGS AT THIS TIME...BUT SUB-VFR WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

DEPENDING UPON HOW THICK THE CLOUD COVER GETS ON FRIDAY WE DO
EXPECT SOME EAST/NE WIND GUSTS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A LARGE 1027 MB HIGH DROPPING SE THROUGH SE CANADA WILL
EXTEND SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE...RESULTING IN STEADILY
RISING PRESSURES AND FAIRLY CONSTANT NE AND EAST WINDS AT LESS
THAN 10 OR 12 KT ACROSS THE MARINE COMMUNITY. THE WAVE SPECTRUM
WILL REMAIN WITH GENERALLY LONG PERIOD SWELL ENERGY...WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS HOLDING AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR EDISTO...BEAIFORT...UNTING ISLAND AND HILTON
ISLAND THIS EVENING WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...HEAVY RAIN
AND WIND GUSTS PAST 35 KT. THEN FOR LATER TONIGHT WE/RE MAINTAINING
A WEATHER WATCH FOR A FEW MORE POSSIBLE STRONG T-STORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE EAST A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THANKS TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
THE STRONGEST PERIOD FOR WINDS/SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH QUIETER EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LINGERING BACK SWELL FROM TC EDOUARD WILL STILL
IMPACT THE BEACHES FRIDAY...AND THAT ALONG WITH STRONGER NE AND
EAST WINDS WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES. AN ELEVATED RISK MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER PINCHED WITH ENHANCED NE AND EAST WINDS
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...INCREASED TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...DEPARTURES MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TIDE LEVELS APPROACHING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDES THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE CLOSEST AS
THAT IS WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. TO REACH COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...DEPARTURES WOULD HAVE TO ABOUT 1.2 FEET
WHICH IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
POTENTIAL...NO MENTION WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 182328
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
728 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY DRYER AND COOLER CONDITIONS.
ALOFT WE FIND A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

KNOCK ON WOOD...BUT IT/S BEEN A QUIETER EVENING THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...WITH LESS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS HAVING OCCURRED SO
FAR. HOWEVER...THE SEA BREEZE HAS SPURRED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION NEAR THE US-17 CORRIDOR...AND WHILE MUCH OF THIS WILL
FADE WITH NOCTURNAL INFLUENCES TAKING OVER...A LITTLE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION NEAR ALLENDALE COUNTY MOVING EAST/SE MAY MERGE WITH
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS HEADING INLAND LATE THIS EVENING/ WE/LL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR A FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION AGAIN IN PARTS OF INTERIOR
SC SHOULD THIS OCCUR.

OVERNIGHT WITHIN A LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FETCH AND THE RESULTING
CONVERGENCE WE ANTICIPATE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
T-STORMS TO REDEVELOP...MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF US-17. OVERALL WE
HAVE POPS NO MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

WE HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST INLAND SECTIONS AFTER 3
OR 4 AM...IN SYNC WITH THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
AND FURTHER REMOVED FROM ANY MIXING WITH THE ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES.
IF SKIES REMAIN VOID OF TOO MUCH CLOUDS LONG ENOUGH WE MIGHT NEED
TO BUMP COVERAGE INTO AREAS OF FOG LATER ON...WITH EVEN A RISK OF
LOCALLY DENSE CONDITIONS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...MAINLY 65-70...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LOWER 70S EAST OF THE INTRA-COASTAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BAGGY TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO CLOSE OFF
INTO A BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL FEATURES WILL BE IN PLAY
INCLUDING HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND A
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LARGER SCALE
STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME UNIFORMLY EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED WILL RESULT IN PWATS INCREASING TO
AROUND 1.75 INCHES LATE. MODELS SHOW THE SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH
PUSHING BACK TO THE WEST WITH TIME AND BRINGING WITH IT ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE COAST SO THE HIGHEST POPS ARE OVER THE WATERS AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...BUT HAVE GENERALLY BEEN HELD IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT...POPS INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY RANGE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE THE MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE ALIGN THE
BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE KEPT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WHICH IS
ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN
BACK UP AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE HEIGHT
FALLS TO THE NORTH FROM A VIGOROUS TROUGH DIVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
BE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS DISAGREE A BIT ON THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...BUT THEY DO AGREE THAT IT WILL BE WELL
OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND WILL STEADILY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NHC CURRENTLY GIVES THIS SYSTEM A
LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. FROM A PRECIPITATION
STANDPOINT...ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PRIMARILY BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AND ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR AREAS
FURTHER EAST. THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH WILL DRIVE A FRESHENING NORTHEAST FLOW...ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES ON MONDAY...HELPING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE TO CAP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ORIGINS
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY WARM SEVERAL DEGREES WITHIN FRONTAL
COMPRESSION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY
COOL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK TO ONLY
PEAK IN THE LOW 80S. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNLESS SOME UNFORESEEN BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SPUR A LITTLE
CONVECTION THIS EVENING WE ANTICIPATE THAT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV.

A DEEPENING AND MODERATE EASTERLY FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL
GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND MAYBE A TSRA DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE ANYTHING WORSE THAN LOW-
END VFR CEILINGS AT THIS TIME...BUT SUB-VFR WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

DEPENDING UPON HOW THICK THE CLOUD COVER GETS ON FRIDAY WE DO
EXPECT SOME EAST/NE WIND GUSTS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A LARGE 1027 MB HIGH DROPPING SE THROUGH SE CANADA WILL
EXTEND SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE...RESULTING IN STEADILY
RISING PRESSURES AND FAIRLY CONSTANT NE AND EAST WINDS AT LESS
THAN 10 OR 12 KT ACROSS THE MARINE COMMUNITY. THE WAVE SPECTRUM
WILL REMAIN WITH GENERALLY LONG PERIOD SWELL ENERGY...WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS HOLDING AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR EDISTO...BEAIFORT...UNTING ISLAND AND HILTON
ISLAND THIS EVENING WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...HEAVY RAIN
AND WIND GUSTS PAST 35 KT. THEN FOR LATER TONIGHT WE/RE MAINTAINING
A WEATHER WATCH FOR A FEW MORE POSSIBLE STRONG T-STORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE EAST A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THANKS TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
THE STRONGEST PERIOD FOR WINDS/SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH QUIETER EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LINGERING BACK SWELL FROM TC EDOUARD WILL STILL
IMPACT THE BEACHES FRIDAY...AND THAT ALONG WITH STRONGER NE AND
EAST WINDS WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES. AN ELEVATED RISK MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER PINCHED WITH ENHANCED NE AND EAST WINDS
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...INCREASED TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...DEPARTURES MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TIDE LEVELS APPROACHING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDES THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE CLOSEST AS
THAT IS WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. TO REACH COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...DEPARTURES WOULD HAVE TO ABOUT 1.2 FEET
WHICH IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
POTENTIAL...NO MENTION WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 182225
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
625 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY DRYER AND COOLER CONDITIONS.
ALOFT WE FIND A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

KNOCK ON WOOD...BUT IT/S BEEN A QUIETER EVENING THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...WITH LESS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS HAVING OCCURRED SO
FAR. HOWEVER...THE SEA BREEZE HAS SPURRED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION NEAR THE US-17 CORRIDOR...AND WHILE MUCH OF THIS WILL
FADE WITH NOCTURNAL INFLUENCES TAKING OVER...A LITTLE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION NEAR ALLENDALE COUNTY MOVING EAST/SE MAY MERGE WITH
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS HEADING INLAND LATE THIS EVENING/ WE/LL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR A FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION AGAIN IN PARTS OF INTERIOR
SC SHOULD THIS OCCUR.

OVERNIGHT WITHIN A LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FETCH AND THE RESULTING
CONVERGENCE WE ANTICIPATE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
T-STORMS TO REDEVELOP...MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF US-17. OVERALL WE
HAVE POPS NO MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

WE HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST INLAND SECTIONS AFTER 3
OR 4 AM...IN SYNC WITH THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
AND FURTHER REMOVED FROM ANY MIXING WITH THE ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES.
IF SKIES REMAIN VOID OF TOO MUCH CLOUDS LONG ENOUGH WE MIGHT NEED
TO BUMP COVERAGE INTO AREAS OF FOG LATER ON...WITH EVEN A RISK OF
LOCALLY DENSE CONDITIONS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...MAINLY 65-70...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LOWER 70S EAST OF THE INTRA-COASTAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BAGGY TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO CLOSE OFF
INTO A BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL FEATURES WILL BE IN PLAY
INCLUDING HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND A
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LARGER SCALE
STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME UNIFORMLY EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED WILL RESULT IN PWATS INCREASING TO
AROUND 1.75 INCHES LATE. MODELS SHOW THE SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH
PUSHING BACK TO THE WEST WITH TIME AND BRINGING WITH IT ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE COAST SO THE HIGHEST POPS ARE OVER THE WATERS AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...BUT HAVE GENERALLY BEEN HELD IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT...POPS INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY RANGE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE THE MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE ALIGN THE
BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE KEPT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WHICH IS
ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN
BACK UP AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE HEIGHT
FALLS TO THE NORTH FROM A VIGOROUS TROUGH DIVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
BE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS DISAGREE A BIT ON THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...BUT THEY DO AGREE THAT IT WILL BE WELL
OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND WILL STEADILY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NHC CURRENTLY GIVES THIS SYSTEM A
LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. FROM A PRECIPITATION
STANDPOINT...ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PRIMARILY BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AND ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR AREAS
FURTHER EAST. THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH WILL DRIVE A FRESHENING NORTHEAST FLOW...ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES ON MONDAY...HELPING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE TO CAP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ORIGINS
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY WARM SEVERAL DEGREES WITHIN FRONTAL
COMPRESSION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY
COOL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK TO ONLY
PEAK IN THE LOW 80S. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH CHS AND SAV
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD A SHOWER IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL. HAVE
MAINTAINED VCSH AT THIS TIME AS MOST ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT SHOULD EITHER TERMINAL SEE RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL BY 14Z
FRIDAY AT BOTH TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A LARGE 1027 MB HIGH DROPPING SE THROUGH SE CANADA WILL
EXTEND SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE...RESULTING IN STEADILY
RISING PRESSURES AND FAIRLY CONSTANT NE AND EAST WINDS AT LESS
THAN 10 OR 12 KT ACROSS THE MARINE COMMUNITY. THE WAVE SPECTRUM
WILL REMAIN WITH GENERALLY LONG PERIOD SWELL ENERGY...WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS HOLDING AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. WE/RE
MAINTAINING A WEATHER WATCH FOR A FEW POSSIBLE STRONG T-STORMS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE EAST A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THANKS TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
THE STRONGEST PERIOD FOR WINDS/SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH QUIETER EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LINGERING BACK SWELL FROM TC EDOUARD WILL STILL
IMPACT THE BEACHES FRIDAY...AND THAT ALONG WITH STRONGER NE AND
EAST WINDS WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES. AN ELEVATED RISK MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER PINCHED WITH ENHANCED NE AND EAST WINDS
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...INCREASED TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...DEPARTURES MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TIDE LEVELS APPROACHING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDES THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE CLOSEST AS
THAT IS WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. TO REACH COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...DEPARTURES WOULD HAVE TO ABOUT 1.2 FEET
WHICH IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
POTENTIAL...NO MENTION WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 182225
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
625 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY DRYER AND COOLER CONDITIONS.
ALOFT WE FIND A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

KNOCK ON WOOD...BUT IT/S BEEN A QUIETER EVENING THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...WITH LESS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS HAVING OCCURRED SO
FAR. HOWEVER...THE SEA BREEZE HAS SPURRED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION NEAR THE US-17 CORRIDOR...AND WHILE MUCH OF THIS WILL
FADE WITH NOCTURNAL INFLUENCES TAKING OVER...A LITTLE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION NEAR ALLENDALE COUNTY MOVING EAST/SE MAY MERGE WITH
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS HEADING INLAND LATE THIS EVENING/ WE/LL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR A FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION AGAIN IN PARTS OF INTERIOR
SC SHOULD THIS OCCUR.

OVERNIGHT WITHIN A LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FETCH AND THE RESULTING
CONVERGENCE WE ANTICIPATE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
T-STORMS TO REDEVELOP...MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF US-17. OVERALL WE
HAVE POPS NO MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

WE HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST INLAND SECTIONS AFTER 3
OR 4 AM...IN SYNC WITH THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
AND FURTHER REMOVED FROM ANY MIXING WITH THE ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES.
IF SKIES REMAIN VOID OF TOO MUCH CLOUDS LONG ENOUGH WE MIGHT NEED
TO BUMP COVERAGE INTO AREAS OF FOG LATER ON...WITH EVEN A RISK OF
LOCALLY DENSE CONDITIONS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...MAINLY 65-70...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LOWER 70S EAST OF THE INTRA-COASTAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BAGGY TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO CLOSE OFF
INTO A BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL FEATURES WILL BE IN PLAY
INCLUDING HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND A
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LARGER SCALE
STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME UNIFORMLY EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED WILL RESULT IN PWATS INCREASING TO
AROUND 1.75 INCHES LATE. MODELS SHOW THE SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH
PUSHING BACK TO THE WEST WITH TIME AND BRINGING WITH IT ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE COAST SO THE HIGHEST POPS ARE OVER THE WATERS AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...BUT HAVE GENERALLY BEEN HELD IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT...POPS INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY RANGE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE THE MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE ALIGN THE
BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE KEPT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WHICH IS
ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN
BACK UP AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE HEIGHT
FALLS TO THE NORTH FROM A VIGOROUS TROUGH DIVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
BE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS DISAGREE A BIT ON THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...BUT THEY DO AGREE THAT IT WILL BE WELL
OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND WILL STEADILY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NHC CURRENTLY GIVES THIS SYSTEM A
LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. FROM A PRECIPITATION
STANDPOINT...ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PRIMARILY BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AND ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR AREAS
FURTHER EAST. THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH WILL DRIVE A FRESHENING NORTHEAST FLOW...ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES ON MONDAY...HELPING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE TO CAP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ORIGINS
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY WARM SEVERAL DEGREES WITHIN FRONTAL
COMPRESSION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY
COOL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK TO ONLY
PEAK IN THE LOW 80S. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH CHS AND SAV
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD A SHOWER IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL. HAVE
MAINTAINED VCSH AT THIS TIME AS MOST ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT SHOULD EITHER TERMINAL SEE RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL BY 14Z
FRIDAY AT BOTH TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A LARGE 1027 MB HIGH DROPPING SE THROUGH SE CANADA WILL
EXTEND SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE...RESULTING IN STEADILY
RISING PRESSURES AND FAIRLY CONSTANT NE AND EAST WINDS AT LESS
THAN 10 OR 12 KT ACROSS THE MARINE COMMUNITY. THE WAVE SPECTRUM
WILL REMAIN WITH GENERALLY LONG PERIOD SWELL ENERGY...WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS HOLDING AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. WE/RE
MAINTAINING A WEATHER WATCH FOR A FEW POSSIBLE STRONG T-STORMS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE EAST A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THANKS TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
THE STRONGEST PERIOD FOR WINDS/SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH QUIETER EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LINGERING BACK SWELL FROM TC EDOUARD WILL STILL
IMPACT THE BEACHES FRIDAY...AND THAT ALONG WITH STRONGER NE AND
EAST WINDS WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES. AN ELEVATED RISK MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER PINCHED WITH ENHANCED NE AND EAST WINDS
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...INCREASED TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...DEPARTURES MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TIDE LEVELS APPROACHING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDES THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE CLOSEST AS
THAT IS WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. TO REACH COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...DEPARTURES WOULD HAVE TO ABOUT 1.2 FEET
WHICH IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
POTENTIAL...NO MENTION WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 182225
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
625 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY DRYER AND COOLER CONDITIONS.
ALOFT WE FIND A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

KNOCK ON WOOD...BUT IT/S BEEN A QUIETER EVENING THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...WITH LESS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS HAVING OCCURRED SO
FAR. HOWEVER...THE SEA BREEZE HAS SPURRED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION NEAR THE US-17 CORRIDOR...AND WHILE MUCH OF THIS WILL
FADE WITH NOCTURNAL INFLUENCES TAKING OVER...A LITTLE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION NEAR ALLENDALE COUNTY MOVING EAST/SE MAY MERGE WITH
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS HEADING INLAND LATE THIS EVENING/ WE/LL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR A FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION AGAIN IN PARTS OF INTERIOR
SC SHOULD THIS OCCUR.

OVERNIGHT WITHIN A LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FETCH AND THE RESULTING
CONVERGENCE WE ANTICIPATE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
T-STORMS TO REDEVELOP...MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF US-17. OVERALL WE
HAVE POPS NO MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

WE HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST INLAND SECTIONS AFTER 3
OR 4 AM...IN SYNC WITH THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
AND FURTHER REMOVED FROM ANY MIXING WITH THE ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES.
IF SKIES REMAIN VOID OF TOO MUCH CLOUDS LONG ENOUGH WE MIGHT NEED
TO BUMP COVERAGE INTO AREAS OF FOG LATER ON...WITH EVEN A RISK OF
LOCALLY DENSE CONDITIONS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...MAINLY 65-70...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LOWER 70S EAST OF THE INTRA-COASTAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BAGGY TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO CLOSE OFF
INTO A BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL FEATURES WILL BE IN PLAY
INCLUDING HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND A
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LARGER SCALE
STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME UNIFORMLY EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED WILL RESULT IN PWATS INCREASING TO
AROUND 1.75 INCHES LATE. MODELS SHOW THE SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH
PUSHING BACK TO THE WEST WITH TIME AND BRINGING WITH IT ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE COAST SO THE HIGHEST POPS ARE OVER THE WATERS AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...BUT HAVE GENERALLY BEEN HELD IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT...POPS INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY RANGE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE THE MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE ALIGN THE
BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE KEPT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WHICH IS
ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN
BACK UP AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE HEIGHT
FALLS TO THE NORTH FROM A VIGOROUS TROUGH DIVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
BE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS DISAGREE A BIT ON THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...BUT THEY DO AGREE THAT IT WILL BE WELL
OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND WILL STEADILY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NHC CURRENTLY GIVES THIS SYSTEM A
LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. FROM A PRECIPITATION
STANDPOINT...ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PRIMARILY BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AND ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR AREAS
FURTHER EAST. THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH WILL DRIVE A FRESHENING NORTHEAST FLOW...ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES ON MONDAY...HELPING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE TO CAP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ORIGINS
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY WARM SEVERAL DEGREES WITHIN FRONTAL
COMPRESSION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY
COOL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK TO ONLY
PEAK IN THE LOW 80S. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH CHS AND SAV
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD A SHOWER IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL. HAVE
MAINTAINED VCSH AT THIS TIME AS MOST ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT SHOULD EITHER TERMINAL SEE RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL BY 14Z
FRIDAY AT BOTH TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A LARGE 1027 MB HIGH DROPPING SE THROUGH SE CANADA WILL
EXTEND SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE...RESULTING IN STEADILY
RISING PRESSURES AND FAIRLY CONSTANT NE AND EAST WINDS AT LESS
THAN 10 OR 12 KT ACROSS THE MARINE COMMUNITY. THE WAVE SPECTRUM
WILL REMAIN WITH GENERALLY LONG PERIOD SWELL ENERGY...WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS HOLDING AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. WE/RE
MAINTAINING A WEATHER WATCH FOR A FEW POSSIBLE STRONG T-STORMS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE EAST A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THANKS TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
THE STRONGEST PERIOD FOR WINDS/SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH QUIETER EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LINGERING BACK SWELL FROM TC EDOUARD WILL STILL
IMPACT THE BEACHES FRIDAY...AND THAT ALONG WITH STRONGER NE AND
EAST WINDS WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES. AN ELEVATED RISK MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER PINCHED WITH ENHANCED NE AND EAST WINDS
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...INCREASED TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...DEPARTURES MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TIDE LEVELS APPROACHING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDES THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE CLOSEST AS
THAT IS WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. TO REACH COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...DEPARTURES WOULD HAVE TO ABOUT 1.2 FEET
WHICH IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
POTENTIAL...NO MENTION WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 182225
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
625 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY DRYER AND COOLER CONDITIONS.
ALOFT WE FIND A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

KNOCK ON WOOD...BUT IT/S BEEN A QUIETER EVENING THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...WITH LESS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS HAVING OCCURRED SO
FAR. HOWEVER...THE SEA BREEZE HAS SPURRED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION NEAR THE US-17 CORRIDOR...AND WHILE MUCH OF THIS WILL
FADE WITH NOCTURNAL INFLUENCES TAKING OVER...A LITTLE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION NEAR ALLENDALE COUNTY MOVING EAST/SE MAY MERGE WITH
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS HEADING INLAND LATE THIS EVENING/ WE/LL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR A FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION AGAIN IN PARTS OF INTERIOR
SC SHOULD THIS OCCUR.

OVERNIGHT WITHIN A LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FETCH AND THE RESULTING
CONVERGENCE WE ANTICIPATE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
T-STORMS TO REDEVELOP...MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF US-17. OVERALL WE
HAVE POPS NO MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

WE HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST INLAND SECTIONS AFTER 3
OR 4 AM...IN SYNC WITH THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
AND FURTHER REMOVED FROM ANY MIXING WITH THE ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES.
IF SKIES REMAIN VOID OF TOO MUCH CLOUDS LONG ENOUGH WE MIGHT NEED
TO BUMP COVERAGE INTO AREAS OF FOG LATER ON...WITH EVEN A RISK OF
LOCALLY DENSE CONDITIONS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...MAINLY 65-70...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LOWER 70S EAST OF THE INTRA-COASTAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BAGGY TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO CLOSE OFF
INTO A BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL FEATURES WILL BE IN PLAY
INCLUDING HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND A
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LARGER SCALE
STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME UNIFORMLY EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED WILL RESULT IN PWATS INCREASING TO
AROUND 1.75 INCHES LATE. MODELS SHOW THE SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH
PUSHING BACK TO THE WEST WITH TIME AND BRINGING WITH IT ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE COAST SO THE HIGHEST POPS ARE OVER THE WATERS AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...BUT HAVE GENERALLY BEEN HELD IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT...POPS INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY RANGE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE THE MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE ALIGN THE
BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE KEPT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WHICH IS
ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN
BACK UP AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE HEIGHT
FALLS TO THE NORTH FROM A VIGOROUS TROUGH DIVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
BE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS DISAGREE A BIT ON THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...BUT THEY DO AGREE THAT IT WILL BE WELL
OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND WILL STEADILY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NHC CURRENTLY GIVES THIS SYSTEM A
LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. FROM A PRECIPITATION
STANDPOINT...ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PRIMARILY BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AND ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR AREAS
FURTHER EAST. THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH WILL DRIVE A FRESHENING NORTHEAST FLOW...ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES ON MONDAY...HELPING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE TO CAP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ORIGINS
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY WARM SEVERAL DEGREES WITHIN FRONTAL
COMPRESSION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY
COOL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK TO ONLY
PEAK IN THE LOW 80S. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH CHS AND SAV
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD A SHOWER IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL. HAVE
MAINTAINED VCSH AT THIS TIME AS MOST ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT SHOULD EITHER TERMINAL SEE RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL BY 14Z
FRIDAY AT BOTH TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A LARGE 1027 MB HIGH DROPPING SE THROUGH SE CANADA WILL
EXTEND SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE...RESULTING IN STEADILY
RISING PRESSURES AND FAIRLY CONSTANT NE AND EAST WINDS AT LESS
THAN 10 OR 12 KT ACROSS THE MARINE COMMUNITY. THE WAVE SPECTRUM
WILL REMAIN WITH GENERALLY LONG PERIOD SWELL ENERGY...WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS HOLDING AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. WE/RE
MAINTAINING A WEATHER WATCH FOR A FEW POSSIBLE STRONG T-STORMS
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE EAST A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THANKS TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
THE STRONGEST PERIOD FOR WINDS/SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH QUIETER EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LINGERING BACK SWELL FROM TC EDOUARD WILL STILL
IMPACT THE BEACHES FRIDAY...AND THAT ALONG WITH STRONGER NE AND
EAST WINDS WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES. AN ELEVATED RISK MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER PINCHED WITH ENHANCED NE AND EAST WINDS
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...INCREASED TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...DEPARTURES MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TIDE LEVELS APPROACHING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDES THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE CLOSEST AS
THAT IS WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. TO REACH COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...DEPARTURES WOULD HAVE TO ABOUT 1.2 FEET
WHICH IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
POTENTIAL...NO MENTION WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS62 KCAE 182116 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
516 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AND LIFT NORTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED
TO THE STRONG STORMS THAT WE HAD YESTERDAY. MORNING FOG AND
STRATUS WAS SLOW TO BURN OFF AND REALLY LIMITED DESTABILIZATION
THIS AFTERNOON BUT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORMS HAS BEEN SLOW BUT IS INCREASING A BIT SO
WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS IF NEEDED AS THE STORMS ARE
DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. UPDATED
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR STORMS IN THE SOUTH BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE AS DEWPOINTS ARE MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER 60S
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN MAY BE IMPACTED BY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW OVER OVER GEORGIA ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN TO FILL AND LIFT NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER COASTAL GEORGIA IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH COUPLED
WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CSRA.
THE NAM MODEL INDICATED STRONGER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...THUS
HIGHER POPS THAN THE GFS. HAVE TRENDED WITH MOS GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHER POPS...MAINLY DIURNAL...FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PERIOD.

HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY UNDER THE
WEDGE-LIKE SETUP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S
SOUTH. WENT WITH CONSENSUS FOR LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT SUNDAY AS THE H850 FLOW BECOME DOWNSLOPE.
PWAT DECEASES TO AROUND ONE INCH WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. KEPT DRY
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS STILL
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE NATION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY DRAGGING THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS MONDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO
UPPER 80S SOUTH.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 5 TO 7 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY. GFS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO BELOW THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE TIME. GIVEN LATEST
RADAR RETURNS...NOT EXPECTING ANY CELLS TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES...BUT WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SLOW RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...BC





000
FXUS62 KCHS 181957
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY DRYER AND COOLER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH OFFSHORE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS NEAR
THE COAST WHILE WEAK H5 SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
MID LVL TROUGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED THE
CURRENT FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...HIGHEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW RESULTS IN ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR A
SOMEWHAT PINNED SEABREEZE. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE INLAND...MAINLY DUE TO LESS MOISTURE LEVELS AND DELAYED
SFC HEATING FROM EARLIER CLOUD COVER. THUS BELIEVE MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE INLAND BY SUNSET...WHILE PRECIP GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES ALONG THE COAST A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. WE STILL CAN
NOT RULE THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY BEFORE SUNSET ALONG THE COAST.

ONCE PRECIP ACTIVITY DIMINISHES EARLY TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL ONCE AGAIN SWITCH OVER TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG LATE. BEST
CHANCES OF FOG WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE
RAINFALL THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG
OVER ALL AREAS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BAGGY TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO CLOSE OFF
INTO A BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL FEATURES WILL BE IN PLAY
INCLUDING HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND A
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LARGER SCALE
STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME UNIFORMLY EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED WILL RESULT IN PWATS INCREASING TO
AROUND 1.75 INCHES LATE. MODELS SHOW THE SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH
PUSHING BACK TO THE WEST WITH TIME AND BRINGING WITH IT ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE COAST SO THE HIGHEST POPS ARE OVER THE WATERS AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...BUT HAVE GENERALLY BEEN HELD IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT...POPS INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY RANGE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE THE MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE ALIGN THE
BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE KEPT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WHICH IS
ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN
BACK UP AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE HEIGHT
FALLS TO THE NORTH FROM A VIGOROUS TROUGH DIVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
BE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS DISAGREE A BIT ON THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...BUT THEY DO AGREE THAT IT WILL BE WELL
OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND WILL STEADILY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NHC CURRENTLY GIVES THIS SYSTEM A
LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. FROM A PRECIPITATION
STANDPOINT...ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PRIMARILY BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AND ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR AREAS
FURTHER EAST. THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH WILL DRIVE A FRESHENING NORTHEAST FLOW...ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES ON MONDAY...HELPING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE TO CAP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ORIGINS
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY WARM SEVERAL DEGREES WITHIN FRONTAL
COMPRESSION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY
COOL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK TO ONLY
PEAK IN THE LOW 80S. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH CHS AND SAV
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD A SHOWER IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL. HAVE
MAINTAINED VCSH AT THIS TIME AS MOST ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT SHOULD EITHER TERMINAL SEE RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL BY 14Z
FRIDAY AT BOTH TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WITH WIND SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. WE
COULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO OUR NORTH...RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
2-3 FT...MAINLY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AS H5
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE EAST A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THANKS TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
THE STRONGEST PERIOD FOR WINDS/SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH QUIETER EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING
INCREASE IN EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS AT AREAS BEACHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...INCREASED TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...DEPARTURES MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TIDE LEVELS APPROACHING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDES THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE CLOSEST AS
THAT IS WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. TO REACH COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...DEPARTURES WOULD HAVE TO ABOUT 1.2 FEET
WHICH IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
POTENTIAL...NO MENTION WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BSH







000
FXUS62 KCHS 181957
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY DRYER AND COOLER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH OFFSHORE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS NEAR
THE COAST WHILE WEAK H5 SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
MID LVL TROUGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED THE
CURRENT FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...HIGHEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW RESULTS IN ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR A
SOMEWHAT PINNED SEABREEZE. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE INLAND...MAINLY DUE TO LESS MOISTURE LEVELS AND DELAYED
SFC HEATING FROM EARLIER CLOUD COVER. THUS BELIEVE MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE INLAND BY SUNSET...WHILE PRECIP GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES ALONG THE COAST A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. WE STILL CAN
NOT RULE THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY BEFORE SUNSET ALONG THE COAST.

ONCE PRECIP ACTIVITY DIMINISHES EARLY TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL ONCE AGAIN SWITCH OVER TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG LATE. BEST
CHANCES OF FOG WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE
RAINFALL THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG
OVER ALL AREAS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BAGGY TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO CLOSE OFF
INTO A BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL FEATURES WILL BE IN PLAY
INCLUDING HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND A
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LARGER SCALE
STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME UNIFORMLY EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED WILL RESULT IN PWATS INCREASING TO
AROUND 1.75 INCHES LATE. MODELS SHOW THE SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH
PUSHING BACK TO THE WEST WITH TIME AND BRINGING WITH IT ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE COAST SO THE HIGHEST POPS ARE OVER THE WATERS AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...BUT HAVE GENERALLY BEEN HELD IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT...POPS INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY RANGE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE THE MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE ALIGN THE
BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE KEPT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WHICH IS
ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN
BACK UP AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE HEIGHT
FALLS TO THE NORTH FROM A VIGOROUS TROUGH DIVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
BE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS DISAGREE A BIT ON THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...BUT THEY DO AGREE THAT IT WILL BE WELL
OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND WILL STEADILY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NHC CURRENTLY GIVES THIS SYSTEM A
LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. FROM A PRECIPITATION
STANDPOINT...ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PRIMARILY BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AND ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR AREAS
FURTHER EAST. THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH WILL DRIVE A FRESHENING NORTHEAST FLOW...ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES ON MONDAY...HELPING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE TO CAP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ORIGINS
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY WARM SEVERAL DEGREES WITHIN FRONTAL
COMPRESSION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY
COOL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK TO ONLY
PEAK IN THE LOW 80S. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH CHS AND SAV
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD A SHOWER IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL. HAVE
MAINTAINED VCSH AT THIS TIME AS MOST ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT SHOULD EITHER TERMINAL SEE RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL BY 14Z
FRIDAY AT BOTH TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WITH WIND SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. WE
COULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO OUR NORTH...RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
2-3 FT...MAINLY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AS H5
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE EAST A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THANKS TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
THE STRONGEST PERIOD FOR WINDS/SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH QUIETER EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING
INCREASE IN EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS AT AREAS BEACHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...INCREASED TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...DEPARTURES MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TIDE LEVELS APPROACHING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDES THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE CLOSEST AS
THAT IS WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. TO REACH COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...DEPARTURES WOULD HAVE TO ABOUT 1.2 FEET
WHICH IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
POTENTIAL...NO MENTION WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BSH







000
FXUS62 KCHS 181957
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY DRYER AND COOLER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH OFFSHORE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS NEAR
THE COAST WHILE WEAK H5 SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
MID LVL TROUGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED THE
CURRENT FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...HIGHEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW RESULTS IN ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR A
SOMEWHAT PINNED SEABREEZE. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE INLAND...MAINLY DUE TO LESS MOISTURE LEVELS AND DELAYED
SFC HEATING FROM EARLIER CLOUD COVER. THUS BELIEVE MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE INLAND BY SUNSET...WHILE PRECIP GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES ALONG THE COAST A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. WE STILL CAN
NOT RULE THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY BEFORE SUNSET ALONG THE COAST.

ONCE PRECIP ACTIVITY DIMINISHES EARLY TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL ONCE AGAIN SWITCH OVER TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG LATE. BEST
CHANCES OF FOG WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE
RAINFALL THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG
OVER ALL AREAS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BAGGY TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO CLOSE OFF
INTO A BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL FEATURES WILL BE IN PLAY
INCLUDING HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND A
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LARGER SCALE
STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME UNIFORMLY EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED WILL RESULT IN PWATS INCREASING TO
AROUND 1.75 INCHES LATE. MODELS SHOW THE SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH
PUSHING BACK TO THE WEST WITH TIME AND BRINGING WITH IT ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE COAST SO THE HIGHEST POPS ARE OVER THE WATERS AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...BUT HAVE GENERALLY BEEN HELD IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT...POPS INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY RANGE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE THE MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE ALIGN THE
BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE KEPT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WHICH IS
ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN
BACK UP AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE HEIGHT
FALLS TO THE NORTH FROM A VIGOROUS TROUGH DIVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
BE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS DISAGREE A BIT ON THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...BUT THEY DO AGREE THAT IT WILL BE WELL
OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND WILL STEADILY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NHC CURRENTLY GIVES THIS SYSTEM A
LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. FROM A PRECIPITATION
STANDPOINT...ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PRIMARILY BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AND ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR AREAS
FURTHER EAST. THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH WILL DRIVE A FRESHENING NORTHEAST FLOW...ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES ON MONDAY...HELPING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE TO CAP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ORIGINS
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY WARM SEVERAL DEGREES WITHIN FRONTAL
COMPRESSION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY
COOL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK TO ONLY
PEAK IN THE LOW 80S. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH CHS AND SAV
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD A SHOWER IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL. HAVE
MAINTAINED VCSH AT THIS TIME AS MOST ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT SHOULD EITHER TERMINAL SEE RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL BY 14Z
FRIDAY AT BOTH TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WITH WIND SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. WE
COULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO OUR NORTH...RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
2-3 FT...MAINLY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AS H5
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE EAST A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THANKS TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
THE STRONGEST PERIOD FOR WINDS/SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH QUIETER EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING
INCREASE IN EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS AT AREAS BEACHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...INCREASED TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...DEPARTURES MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TIDE LEVELS APPROACHING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDES THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE CLOSEST AS
THAT IS WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. TO REACH COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...DEPARTURES WOULD HAVE TO ABOUT 1.2 FEET
WHICH IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
POTENTIAL...NO MENTION WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BSH







000
FXUS62 KCHS 181957
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY DRYER AND COOLER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH OFFSHORE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS NEAR
THE COAST WHILE WEAK H5 SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
MID LVL TROUGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED THE
CURRENT FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...HIGHEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW RESULTS IN ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR A
SOMEWHAT PINNED SEABREEZE. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE INLAND...MAINLY DUE TO LESS MOISTURE LEVELS AND DELAYED
SFC HEATING FROM EARLIER CLOUD COVER. THUS BELIEVE MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE INLAND BY SUNSET...WHILE PRECIP GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES ALONG THE COAST A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. WE STILL CAN
NOT RULE THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY BEFORE SUNSET ALONG THE COAST.

ONCE PRECIP ACTIVITY DIMINISHES EARLY TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL ONCE AGAIN SWITCH OVER TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG LATE. BEST
CHANCES OF FOG WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE
RAINFALL THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG
OVER ALL AREAS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BAGGY TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO CLOSE OFF
INTO A BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL FEATURES WILL BE IN PLAY
INCLUDING HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND A
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LARGER SCALE
STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME UNIFORMLY EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED WILL RESULT IN PWATS INCREASING TO
AROUND 1.75 INCHES LATE. MODELS SHOW THE SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH
PUSHING BACK TO THE WEST WITH TIME AND BRINGING WITH IT ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE COAST SO THE HIGHEST POPS ARE OVER THE WATERS AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...BUT HAVE GENERALLY BEEN HELD IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT...POPS INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY RANGE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE THE MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE ALIGN THE
BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE KEPT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WHICH IS
ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN
BACK UP AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE HEIGHT
FALLS TO THE NORTH FROM A VIGOROUS TROUGH DIVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
BE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS DISAGREE A BIT ON THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...BUT THEY DO AGREE THAT IT WILL BE WELL
OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND WILL STEADILY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NHC CURRENTLY GIVES THIS SYSTEM A
LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. FROM A PRECIPITATION
STANDPOINT...ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PRIMARILY BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AND ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR AREAS
FURTHER EAST. THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH WILL DRIVE A FRESHENING NORTHEAST FLOW...ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES ON MONDAY...HELPING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE TO CAP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ORIGINS
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY WARM SEVERAL DEGREES WITHIN FRONTAL
COMPRESSION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY
COOL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK TO ONLY
PEAK IN THE LOW 80S. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH CHS AND SAV
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD A SHOWER IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL. HAVE
MAINTAINED VCSH AT THIS TIME AS MOST ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT SHOULD EITHER TERMINAL SEE RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL BY 14Z
FRIDAY AT BOTH TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WITH WIND SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. WE
COULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO OUR NORTH...RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
2-3 FT...MAINLY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AS H5
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE EAST A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THANKS TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
THE STRONGEST PERIOD FOR WINDS/SEAS WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH QUIETER EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING
INCREASE IN EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS AT AREAS BEACHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...INCREASED TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...DEPARTURES MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TIDE LEVELS APPROACHING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDES THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE CLOSEST AS
THAT IS WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. TO REACH COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...DEPARTURES WOULD HAVE TO ABOUT 1.2 FEET
WHICH IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
POTENTIAL...NO MENTION WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BSH







000
FXUS62 KFFC 181906
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION INTO WEAK ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES TODAY.  AS THIS HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...A
WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AND INTO SATURDAY.  ALL
OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEDGE DEVELOPING.  CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE WEDGE TOMORROW AM AND ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WITH THE WEDGE AND A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA...THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND EVEN THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CWA. HIRES MODELS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED AND THAT THE CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE LOW.  ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE CWA.  NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONG AT THIS TIME.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...USED CONSALL FOR THE SHORT TERM
TEMPERATURES AND TWEAKED THE HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY SATURDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WEDGE.

ARG


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST MODEL TRENDS...PARTICULARLY WITH THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. OVERALL FORECAST TRENDS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK...AND
WHOLE-SCALE CHANGES WERE AVOIDED. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...


/ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH A SLIGHTLY THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NE. THIS WEDGE WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT NOT MUCH
EXPECTED. THIS WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE NW MONDAY MORNING. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH
GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THIS NEXT FRONT EXITS THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES THROUGH DAY 7.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF IFR
CEILINGS TOMORROW MORNING. WEDGE SHOULD START TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA AND BRING WITH IT LOW CEILINGS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE LOW CLOUDS COULD LAST LONGER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE
WEDGE IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST
AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS AND DURATION OF CEILINGS...HIGH ON
ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

ARG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  63  81  62 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         84  65  83  64 /  10  10  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  56  77  58 /  10  10  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    84  61  84  63 /  10  10  20  10
COLUMBUS        89  67  89  66 /  10  10  20  10
GAINESVILLE     81  62  80  62 /  20  10  20  20
MACON           84  65  86  64 /  20  20  20  20
ROME            85  60  86  62 /  10  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  84  61  84  62 /  10  10  20  10
VIDALIA         84  68  85  67 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...ARG






000
FXUS62 KFFC 181906
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION INTO WEAK ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES TODAY.  AS THIS HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...A
WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AND INTO SATURDAY.  ALL
OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEDGE DEVELOPING.  CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE WEDGE TOMORROW AM AND ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WITH THE WEDGE AND A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA...THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND EVEN THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CWA. HIRES MODELS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED AND THAT THE CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE LOW.  ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE CWA.  NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONG AT THIS TIME.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...USED CONSALL FOR THE SHORT TERM
TEMPERATURES AND TWEAKED THE HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY SATURDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WEDGE.

ARG


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST MODEL TRENDS...PARTICULARLY WITH THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. OVERALL FORECAST TRENDS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK...AND
WHOLE-SCALE CHANGES WERE AVOIDED. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...


/ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH A SLIGHTLY THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NE. THIS WEDGE WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT NOT MUCH
EXPECTED. THIS WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE NW MONDAY MORNING. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH
GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THIS NEXT FRONT EXITS THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES THROUGH DAY 7.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF IFR
CEILINGS TOMORROW MORNING. WEDGE SHOULD START TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA AND BRING WITH IT LOW CEILINGS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE LOW CLOUDS COULD LAST LONGER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE
WEDGE IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST
AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS AND DURATION OF CEILINGS...HIGH ON
ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

ARG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  63  81  62 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         84  65  83  64 /  10  10  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  56  77  58 /  10  10  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    84  61  84  63 /  10  10  20  10
COLUMBUS        89  67  89  66 /  10  10  20  10
GAINESVILLE     81  62  80  62 /  20  10  20  20
MACON           84  65  86  64 /  20  20  20  20
ROME            85  60  86  62 /  10  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  84  61  84  62 /  10  10  20  10
VIDALIA         84  68  85  67 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...ARG






000
FXUS62 KFFC 181906
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION INTO WEAK ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES TODAY.  AS THIS HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...A
WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AND INTO SATURDAY.  ALL
OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEDGE DEVELOPING.  CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE WEDGE TOMORROW AM AND ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WITH THE WEDGE AND A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA...THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND EVEN THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CWA. HIRES MODELS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED AND THAT THE CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE LOW.  ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE CWA.  NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONG AT THIS TIME.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...USED CONSALL FOR THE SHORT TERM
TEMPERATURES AND TWEAKED THE HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY SATURDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WEDGE.

ARG


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST MODEL TRENDS...PARTICULARLY WITH THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. OVERALL FORECAST TRENDS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK...AND
WHOLE-SCALE CHANGES WERE AVOIDED. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...


/ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH A SLIGHTLY THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NE. THIS WEDGE WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT NOT MUCH
EXPECTED. THIS WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE NW MONDAY MORNING. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH
GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THIS NEXT FRONT EXITS THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES THROUGH DAY 7.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF IFR
CEILINGS TOMORROW MORNING. WEDGE SHOULD START TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA AND BRING WITH IT LOW CEILINGS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE LOW CLOUDS COULD LAST LONGER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE
WEDGE IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST
AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS AND DURATION OF CEILINGS...HIGH ON
ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

ARG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  63  81  62 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         84  65  83  64 /  10  10  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  56  77  58 /  10  10  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    84  61  84  63 /  10  10  20  10
COLUMBUS        89  67  89  66 /  10  10  20  10
GAINESVILLE     81  62  80  62 /  20  10  20  20
MACON           84  65  86  64 /  20  20  20  20
ROME            85  60  86  62 /  10  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  84  61  84  62 /  10  10  20  10
VIDALIA         84  68  85  67 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...ARG






000
FXUS62 KFFC 181906
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
306 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION INTO WEAK ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES TODAY.  AS THIS HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...A
WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AND INTO SATURDAY.  ALL
OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEDGE DEVELOPING.  CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE WEDGE TOMORROW AM AND ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WITH THE WEDGE AND A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA...THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND EVEN THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CWA. HIRES MODELS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED AND THAT THE CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE LOW.  ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE CWA.  NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONG AT THIS TIME.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...USED CONSALL FOR THE SHORT TERM
TEMPERATURES AND TWEAKED THE HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY SATURDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WEDGE.

ARG


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST MODEL TRENDS...PARTICULARLY WITH THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. OVERALL FORECAST TRENDS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK...AND
WHOLE-SCALE CHANGES WERE AVOIDED. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...


/ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH A SLIGHTLY THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NE. THIS WEDGE WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT NOT MUCH
EXPECTED. THIS WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE NW MONDAY MORNING. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH
GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THIS NEXT FRONT EXITS THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES THROUGH DAY 7.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF IFR
CEILINGS TOMORROW MORNING. WEDGE SHOULD START TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA AND BRING WITH IT LOW CEILINGS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE LOW CLOUDS COULD LAST LONGER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE
WEDGE IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST
AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS AND DURATION OF CEILINGS...HIGH ON
ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

ARG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  63  81  62 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         84  65  83  64 /  10  10  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  56  77  58 /  10  10  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    84  61  84  63 /  10  10  20  10
COLUMBUS        89  67  89  66 /  10  10  20  10
GAINESVILLE     81  62  80  62 /  20  10  20  20
MACON           84  65  86  64 /  20  20  20  20
ROME            85  60  86  62 /  10  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  84  61  84  62 /  10  10  20  10
VIDALIA         84  68  85  67 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...ARG






000
FXUS62 KCAE 181835
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
235 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AND LIFT NORTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. DIURNAL HEATING
ALONG WITH ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR ANY BOUNDARIES SUCH AS
SURFACE TROUGH OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
SOME POSSIBILITIES OF SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE
INSTABILITIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN FA AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR MAY
PROVIDE AN ISOLATED SEVERE CELL ACROSS THAT AREA...THOUGH THREAT IS
NOT AS GREAT AS YESTERDAY. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE
SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW OVER OVER GEORGIA ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN TO FILL AND LIFT NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER COASTAL GEORGIA IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH COUPLED
WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CSRA.
THE NAM MODEL INDICATED STRONGER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...THUS
HIGHER POPS THAN THE GFS. HAVE TRENDED WITH MOS GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHER POPS...MAINLY DIURNAL...FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PERIOD.

HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY UNDER THE
WEDGE-LIKE SETUP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S
SOUTH. WENT WITH CONSENSUS FOR LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT SUNDAY AS THE H850 FLOW BECOME DOWNSLOPE.
PWAT DECEASES TO AROUND ONE INCH WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. KEPT DRY
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS STILL
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE NATION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY DRAGGING THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS MONDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO
UPPER 80S SOUTH.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 5 TO 7 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY. GFS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO BELOW THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO VFR BY MID AFTERNOON...AS
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS VERY SLOWLY LIFTS AND DISSIPATES. DAYTIME
HEATING EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. CONFIDENCE OF SUCH AFFECTING TERMINALS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE NIGHT PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SLOW RETURN TO
VFR EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 181835
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
235 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AND LIFT NORTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. DIURNAL HEATING
ALONG WITH ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR ANY BOUNDARIES SUCH AS
SURFACE TROUGH OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
SOME POSSIBILITIES OF SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE
INSTABILITIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN FA AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR MAY
PROVIDE AN ISOLATED SEVERE CELL ACROSS THAT AREA...THOUGH THREAT IS
NOT AS GREAT AS YESTERDAY. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE
SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW OVER OVER GEORGIA ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN TO FILL AND LIFT NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER COASTAL GEORGIA IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH COUPLED
WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CSRA.
THE NAM MODEL INDICATED STRONGER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...THUS
HIGHER POPS THAN THE GFS. HAVE TRENDED WITH MOS GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHER POPS...MAINLY DIURNAL...FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PERIOD.

HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY UNDER THE
WEDGE-LIKE SETUP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S
SOUTH. WENT WITH CONSENSUS FOR LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT SUNDAY AS THE H850 FLOW BECOME DOWNSLOPE.
PWAT DECEASES TO AROUND ONE INCH WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. KEPT DRY
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS STILL
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE NATION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY DRAGGING THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS MONDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. MAX
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO
UPPER 80S SOUTH.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 5 TO 7 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY. GFS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO BELOW THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO VFR BY MID AFTERNOON...AS
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS VERY SLOWLY LIFTS AND DISSIPATES. DAYTIME
HEATING EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. CONFIDENCE OF SUCH AFFECTING TERMINALS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE NIGHT PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SLOW RETURN TO
VFR EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 181747
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
147 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE
NORTH...RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT DRYER AND COOLER CONDITIONS THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE MAINTAINED THE
CURRENT FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ROUNDS
THE BASE OF THE MID LVL TROUGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH. MOST
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW RESULTS IN ENHANCED MOISTURE NEAR A DEVELOPING
SEABREEZE. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS
YESTERDAY...BUT WE STILL CAN NOT RULE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HEAVY
RAINFALL...MAINLY BEFORE SUNSET ALONG THE COAST. FURTHER INLAND...THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE LESS GIVEN CLOUD COVER
HAS LIMITED OVERALL SFC HEATING.

OVERALL TEMPS WILL REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY INLAND. IN GENERAL...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN WITH
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS SUSPECT AFTER MIDNIGHT. INLAND AREAS
MAY ALSO SEE YET ANOTHER BOUT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY TRACK
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES DURING THE DAY...THEN OFF THE
NORTHERN COAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD. THE
MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW AN INLAND WEDGE TO STRENGTHEN DOWN
THE APPALACHIANS...STRETCHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
SOLID NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REFLECTING THE ASSOCIATED COOLING TREND BY ONLY
PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE INLAND WEDGE NEAR A DEVELOPING TROUGH...AS WELL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION.
EXPECT INITIAL ACTIVITY TO BE FOUND OVER THE WATERS AND COASTLINE
DURING THE MORNING...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITHIN ONSHORE FLOW. BEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE COASTLINE AFTER SUNSET. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER...FALLING INTO THE MID
60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE IN A
DAMPENING STATE LATE IN THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING INTO
A BAGGY UPPER LOW FEATURE AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND. ENERGY
WITHIN THIS LOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE STRENGTHENING OF A COASTAL
TROUGH INTO A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF
THESE FEATURES...WITH CONSENSUS IN ITS GENERAL TRACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE WATERS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. INLAND
AREAS WITHIN THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN UNDER A DRIER
REGIME...AS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS FOCUSED ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE. HAVE THUS INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR
INLAND...INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE.
RAIN COVERAGE WILL THEN TRANSITION BACK TO THE COASTLINE AND
MARINE ZONES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN COOLER ON
SATURDAY...AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW 80S AND
NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS FALL INTO THE MID 60S.

SUNDAY...THE OFFSHORE SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE WEAK UPPER
LOW BECOMES ABSORBED IN A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE
INLAND WEDGE WILL STEADILY BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FORECAST AREA COULD BECOME
LOCATED WITHIN A BAND OF DRY DEEP LAYER AIR BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE
LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THUS
INDICATED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE
COASTLINE...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY INLAND...TO OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER TRANSITIONING SURFACE FLOW WITHIN
THE ERODING INLAND WEDGE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES ON MONDAY...HELPING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE TO CAP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ORIGINS
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY WARM SEVERAL DEGREES WITHIN FRONTAL
COMPRESSION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY
COOL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK TO ONLY
PEAK IN THE LOW 80S. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH CHS AND SAV
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD A SHOWER IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL. HAVE
MAINTAINED VCSH AT THIS TIME AS MOST ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT SHOULD EITHER TERMINAL SEE RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL BY 14Z
FRIDAY AT BOTH TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WITH WIND SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. WE
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 2-3 FT...MAINLY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL. THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FAVORS SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS AGAIN
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS COULD PEAK AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET
SATURDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE INLAND
WEDGE WEAKENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS...1-2
FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT AN ENHANCED PERIOD
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA BEACHES. A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE IN PLACE TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB/WMS






000
FXUS62 KCHS 181747
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
147 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE
NORTH...RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT DRYER AND COOLER CONDITIONS THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE MAINTAINED THE
CURRENT FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ROUNDS
THE BASE OF THE MID LVL TROUGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH. MOST
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW RESULTS IN ENHANCED MOISTURE NEAR A DEVELOPING
SEABREEZE. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS
YESTERDAY...BUT WE STILL CAN NOT RULE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HEAVY
RAINFALL...MAINLY BEFORE SUNSET ALONG THE COAST. FURTHER INLAND...THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE LESS GIVEN CLOUD COVER
HAS LIMITED OVERALL SFC HEATING.

OVERALL TEMPS WILL REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY INLAND. IN GENERAL...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN WITH
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS SUSPECT AFTER MIDNIGHT. INLAND AREAS
MAY ALSO SEE YET ANOTHER BOUT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY TRACK
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES DURING THE DAY...THEN OFF THE
NORTHERN COAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD. THE
MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW AN INLAND WEDGE TO STRENGTHEN DOWN
THE APPALACHIANS...STRETCHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
SOLID NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REFLECTING THE ASSOCIATED COOLING TREND BY ONLY
PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE INLAND WEDGE NEAR A DEVELOPING TROUGH...AS WELL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION.
EXPECT INITIAL ACTIVITY TO BE FOUND OVER THE WATERS AND COASTLINE
DURING THE MORNING...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITHIN ONSHORE FLOW. BEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE COASTLINE AFTER SUNSET. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER...FALLING INTO THE MID
60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE IN A
DAMPENING STATE LATE IN THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING INTO
A BAGGY UPPER LOW FEATURE AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND. ENERGY
WITHIN THIS LOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE STRENGTHENING OF A COASTAL
TROUGH INTO A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF
THESE FEATURES...WITH CONSENSUS IN ITS GENERAL TRACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE WATERS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. INLAND
AREAS WITHIN THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN UNDER A DRIER
REGIME...AS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS FOCUSED ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE. HAVE THUS INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR
INLAND...INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE.
RAIN COVERAGE WILL THEN TRANSITION BACK TO THE COASTLINE AND
MARINE ZONES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN COOLER ON
SATURDAY...AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW 80S AND
NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS FALL INTO THE MID 60S.

SUNDAY...THE OFFSHORE SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE WEAK UPPER
LOW BECOMES ABSORBED IN A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE
INLAND WEDGE WILL STEADILY BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FORECAST AREA COULD BECOME
LOCATED WITHIN A BAND OF DRY DEEP LAYER AIR BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE
LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THUS
INDICATED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE
COASTLINE...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY INLAND...TO OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER TRANSITIONING SURFACE FLOW WITHIN
THE ERODING INLAND WEDGE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES ON MONDAY...HELPING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE TO CAP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ORIGINS
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY WARM SEVERAL DEGREES WITHIN FRONTAL
COMPRESSION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY
COOL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK TO ONLY
PEAK IN THE LOW 80S. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH CHS AND SAV
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD A SHOWER IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL. HAVE
MAINTAINED VCSH AT THIS TIME AS MOST ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT SHOULD EITHER TERMINAL SEE RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL BY 14Z
FRIDAY AT BOTH TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WITH WIND SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. WE
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 2-3 FT...MAINLY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL. THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FAVORS SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS AGAIN
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS COULD PEAK AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET
SATURDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE INLAND
WEDGE WEAKENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS...1-2
FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT AN ENHANCED PERIOD
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA BEACHES. A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE IN PLACE TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB/WMS







000
FXUS62 KFFC 181744 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
144 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THAT THE CLOUD DECK IS BREAKING UP
ACROSS THE METRO AREA. EXPECT THE CURRENT FORECAST TO BE ON TRACK.
HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THREAT OF THUNDER TODAY REMAINS LOW.
HOWEVER WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A RIPPLE
IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THUNDER AND RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. NO CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WERE MADE AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ARG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT NEAR AN
AMERICUS TO SWAINSBORO LINE WHERE IT WILL LIKELY MEANDER TODAY.
MODELS HINT AT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES DEVELOPING A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL HIRES MODEL
PRECIP FIELDS ALSO SUGGEST THIS POTENTIAL. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY. A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS WILL DRIFT EAST AND
ESTABLISH A COOL EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD AMPLE LOW
CLOUDS INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT... THEN SET UP A COOL REINFORCING
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SETTLING OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON... WILL ONLY MENTION RAIN
SHOWERS FOR NOW AS MODEL INSTABILITY FIELDS SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE GA COAST AND FURTHER SOUTH INTO
FLORIDA.

AS FOR TEMPS... THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
RESULT IN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE CLOUDY EASTERLY FLOW AND SPOTTY SHOWERS SHOULD RESULT
IN COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY. A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR TEMPS
AND POPS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF CLOUDS AND RAIN POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

39

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH A SLIGHTLY THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NE. THIS WEDGE WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT NOT MUCH
EXPECTED. THIS WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE NW MONDAY MORNING. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH
GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THIS NEXT FRONT EXITS THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES THROUGH DAY 7.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF IFR
CEILINGS TOMORROW MORNING. WEDGE SHOULD START TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA AND BRING WITH IT LOW CEILINGS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE LOW CLOUDS COULD LAST LONGER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE
WEDGE IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST
AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS AND DURATION OF CEILINGS...HIGH ON
ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

ARG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  64  81  63 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         84  66  82  65 /  10  10  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  59  77  58 /  10  10  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    84  60  82  65 /  10  10  20  10
COLUMBUS        89  67  86  68 /  10  10  20  10
GAINESVILLE     81  65  79  63 /  20  10  20  20
MACON           87  65  84  65 /  20  20  20  20
ROME            85  59  83  65 /  10  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  84  61  83  64 /  10  10  20  10
VIDALIA         87  67  84  67 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...ARG





000
FXUS62 KFFC 181744 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
144 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THAT THE CLOUD DECK IS BREAKING UP
ACROSS THE METRO AREA. EXPECT THE CURRENT FORECAST TO BE ON TRACK.
HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THREAT OF THUNDER TODAY REMAINS LOW.
HOWEVER WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A RIPPLE
IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THUNDER AND RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. NO CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WERE MADE AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ARG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT NEAR AN
AMERICUS TO SWAINSBORO LINE WHERE IT WILL LIKELY MEANDER TODAY.
MODELS HINT AT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES DEVELOPING A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL HIRES MODEL
PRECIP FIELDS ALSO SUGGEST THIS POTENTIAL. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY. A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS WILL DRIFT EAST AND
ESTABLISH A COOL EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD AMPLE LOW
CLOUDS INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT... THEN SET UP A COOL REINFORCING
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SETTLING OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON... WILL ONLY MENTION RAIN
SHOWERS FOR NOW AS MODEL INSTABILITY FIELDS SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE GA COAST AND FURTHER SOUTH INTO
FLORIDA.

AS FOR TEMPS... THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
RESULT IN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE CLOUDY EASTERLY FLOW AND SPOTTY SHOWERS SHOULD RESULT
IN COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY. A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR TEMPS
AND POPS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF CLOUDS AND RAIN POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

39

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH A SLIGHTLY THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NE. THIS WEDGE WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT NOT MUCH
EXPECTED. THIS WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE NW MONDAY MORNING. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH
GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THIS NEXT FRONT EXITS THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES THROUGH DAY 7.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF IFR
CEILINGS TOMORROW MORNING. WEDGE SHOULD START TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA AND BRING WITH IT LOW CEILINGS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE LOW CLOUDS COULD LAST LONGER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE
WEDGE IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST
AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS AND DURATION OF CEILINGS...HIGH ON
ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

ARG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  64  81  63 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         84  66  82  65 /  10  10  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  59  77  58 /  10  10  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    84  60  82  65 /  10  10  20  10
COLUMBUS        89  67  86  68 /  10  10  20  10
GAINESVILLE     81  65  79  63 /  20  10  20  20
MACON           87  65  84  65 /  20  20  20  20
ROME            85  59  83  65 /  10  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  84  61  83  64 /  10  10  20  10
VIDALIA         87  67  84  67 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...ARG





000
FXUS62 KFFC 181744 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
144 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THAT THE CLOUD DECK IS BREAKING UP
ACROSS THE METRO AREA. EXPECT THE CURRENT FORECAST TO BE ON TRACK.
HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THREAT OF THUNDER TODAY REMAINS LOW.
HOWEVER WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A RIPPLE
IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THUNDER AND RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. NO CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WERE MADE AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ARG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT NEAR AN
AMERICUS TO SWAINSBORO LINE WHERE IT WILL LIKELY MEANDER TODAY.
MODELS HINT AT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES DEVELOPING A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL HIRES MODEL
PRECIP FIELDS ALSO SUGGEST THIS POTENTIAL. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY. A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS WILL DRIFT EAST AND
ESTABLISH A COOL EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD AMPLE LOW
CLOUDS INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT... THEN SET UP A COOL REINFORCING
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SETTLING OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON... WILL ONLY MENTION RAIN
SHOWERS FOR NOW AS MODEL INSTABILITY FIELDS SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE GA COAST AND FURTHER SOUTH INTO
FLORIDA.

AS FOR TEMPS... THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
RESULT IN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE CLOUDY EASTERLY FLOW AND SPOTTY SHOWERS SHOULD RESULT
IN COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY. A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR TEMPS
AND POPS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF CLOUDS AND RAIN POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

39

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH A SLIGHTLY THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NE. THIS WEDGE WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT NOT MUCH
EXPECTED. THIS WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE NW MONDAY MORNING. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH
GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THIS NEXT FRONT EXITS THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES THROUGH DAY 7.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF IFR
CEILINGS TOMORROW MORNING. WEDGE SHOULD START TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA AND BRING WITH IT LOW CEILINGS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE LOW CLOUDS COULD LAST LONGER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE
WEDGE IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST
AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS AND DURATION OF CEILINGS...HIGH ON
ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

ARG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  64  81  63 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         84  66  82  65 /  10  10  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  59  77  58 /  10  10  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    84  60  82  65 /  10  10  20  10
COLUMBUS        89  67  86  68 /  10  10  20  10
GAINESVILLE     81  65  79  63 /  20  10  20  20
MACON           87  65  84  65 /  20  20  20  20
ROME            85  59  83  65 /  10  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  84  61  83  64 /  10  10  20  10
VIDALIA         87  67  84  67 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...ARG





000
FXUS62 KFFC 181744 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
144 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THAT THE CLOUD DECK IS BREAKING UP
ACROSS THE METRO AREA. EXPECT THE CURRENT FORECAST TO BE ON TRACK.
HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THREAT OF THUNDER TODAY REMAINS LOW.
HOWEVER WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A RIPPLE
IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THUNDER AND RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. NO CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WERE MADE AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ARG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT NEAR AN
AMERICUS TO SWAINSBORO LINE WHERE IT WILL LIKELY MEANDER TODAY.
MODELS HINT AT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES DEVELOPING A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL HIRES MODEL
PRECIP FIELDS ALSO SUGGEST THIS POTENTIAL. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY. A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS WILL DRIFT EAST AND
ESTABLISH A COOL EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD AMPLE LOW
CLOUDS INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT... THEN SET UP A COOL REINFORCING
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SETTLING OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON... WILL ONLY MENTION RAIN
SHOWERS FOR NOW AS MODEL INSTABILITY FIELDS SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE GA COAST AND FURTHER SOUTH INTO
FLORIDA.

AS FOR TEMPS... THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
RESULT IN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE CLOUDY EASTERLY FLOW AND SPOTTY SHOWERS SHOULD RESULT
IN COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY. A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR TEMPS
AND POPS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF CLOUDS AND RAIN POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

39

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH A SLIGHTLY THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NE. THIS WEDGE WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT NOT MUCH
EXPECTED. THIS WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE NW MONDAY MORNING. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH
GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THIS NEXT FRONT EXITS THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES THROUGH DAY 7.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF IFR
CEILINGS TOMORROW MORNING. WEDGE SHOULD START TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA AND BRING WITH IT LOW CEILINGS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE LOW CLOUDS COULD LAST LONGER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE
WEDGE IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST
AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS AND DURATION OF CEILINGS...HIGH ON
ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

ARG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  64  81  63 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         84  66  82  65 /  10  10  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  59  77  58 /  10  10  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    84  60  82  65 /  10  10  20  10
COLUMBUS        89  67  86  68 /  10  10  20  10
GAINESVILLE     81  65  79  63 /  20  10  20  20
MACON           87  65  84  65 /  20  20  20  20
ROME            85  59  83  65 /  10  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  84  61  83  64 /  10  10  20  10
VIDALIA         87  67  84  67 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...ARG





000
FXUS62 KCAE 181640
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1240 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. DIURNAL HEATING
ALONG WITH ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR ANY BOUNDARIES SUCH AS
SURFACE TROUGH OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
SOME POSSIBILTIES OF SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE
INSTABILITIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN FA AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR MAY
PROVIDE AN ISOLATED SEVERE CELL ACROSS THAT AREA...THOUGH THREAT IS
NOT AS GREAT AS YESTERDAY. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE
SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS RELATIVELY SHALLOW SO HAVE KEPT
POPS LOW. HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY UNDER
THE WEDGE SETUP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S
SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIG TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY DRAGGING THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO BELOW HALF
AN INCH. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5
TO 7 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FA ON WEDNESDAY WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK COMPARED TO THE
SOUTHERN FA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO VFR BY MID AFTERNOON...AS
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS VERY SLOWLY LIFTS AND DISSIPATES. DAYTIME
HEATING EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. CONFIDENCE OF SUCH AFFECTING TERMINALS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE NIGHT PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SLOW RETURN TO
VFR EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 181640
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1240 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. DIURNAL HEATING
ALONG WITH ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR ANY BOUNDARIES SUCH AS
SURFACE TROUGH OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
SOME POSSIBILTIES OF SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE
INSTABILITIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN FA AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR MAY
PROVIDE AN ISOLATED SEVERE CELL ACROSS THAT AREA...THOUGH THREAT IS
NOT AS GREAT AS YESTERDAY. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE
SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS RELATIVELY SHALLOW SO HAVE KEPT
POPS LOW. HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY UNDER
THE WEDGE SETUP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S
SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIG TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY DRAGGING THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO BELOW HALF
AN INCH. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5
TO 7 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FA ON WEDNESDAY WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK COMPARED TO THE
SOUTHERN FA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO VFR BY MID AFTERNOON...AS
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS VERY SLOWLY LIFTS AND DISSIPATES. DAYTIME
HEATING EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. CONFIDENCE OF SUCH AFFECTING TERMINALS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE NIGHT PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SLOW RETURN TO
VFR EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 181640
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1240 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. DIURNAL HEATING
ALONG WITH ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR ANY BOUNDARIES SUCH AS
SURFACE TROUGH OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
SOME POSSIBILTIES OF SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE
INSTABILITIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN FA AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR MAY
PROVIDE AN ISOLATED SEVERE CELL ACROSS THAT AREA...THOUGH THREAT IS
NOT AS GREAT AS YESTERDAY. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE
SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS RELATIVELY SHALLOW SO HAVE KEPT
POPS LOW. HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY UNDER
THE WEDGE SETUP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S
SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIG TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY DRAGGING THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO BELOW HALF
AN INCH. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5
TO 7 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FA ON WEDNESDAY WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK COMPARED TO THE
SOUTHERN FA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO VFR BY MID AFTERNOON...AS
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS VERY SLOWLY LIFTS AND DISSIPATES. DAYTIME
HEATING EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. CONFIDENCE OF SUCH AFFECTING TERMINALS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE NIGHT PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SLOW RETURN TO
VFR EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 181640
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1240 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. DIURNAL HEATING
ALONG WITH ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR ANY BOUNDARIES SUCH AS
SURFACE TROUGH OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
SOME POSSIBILTIES OF SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE
INSTABILITIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN FA AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR MAY
PROVIDE AN ISOLATED SEVERE CELL ACROSS THAT AREA...THOUGH THREAT IS
NOT AS GREAT AS YESTERDAY. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE
SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS RELATIVELY SHALLOW SO HAVE KEPT
POPS LOW. HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY UNDER
THE WEDGE SETUP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S
SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIG TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY DRAGGING THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO BELOW HALF
AN INCH. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5
TO 7 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FA ON WEDNESDAY WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK COMPARED TO THE
SOUTHERN FA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO VFR BY MID AFTERNOON...AS
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS VERY SLOWLY LIFTS AND DISSIPATES. DAYTIME
HEATING EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. CONFIDENCE OF SUCH AFFECTING TERMINALS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE NIGHT PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SLOW RETURN TO
VFR EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 181453
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1053 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE
NORTH...RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT DRYER AND COOLER CONDITIONS THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
STILL REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ITS AXIS ROUGHLY
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WE SHOULD THEREFORE
SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON AS WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ROUNDS THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID LVL TROUGH. MOST ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO
BE CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RESULTS IN
ENHANCED MOISTURE NEAR A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY...BUT WE STILL CAN
NOT RULE THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY BEFORE SUNSET.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY
INLAND WHERE LATE MORNING FOG LIMITS SFC HEATING. IN GENERAL...TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA TO UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN WITH
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS SUSPECT AFTER MIDNIGHT. INLAND AREAS
MAY ALSO SEE YET ANOTHER BOUT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY TRACK
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES DURING THE DAY...THEN OFF THE
NORTHERN COAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD. THE
MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW AN INLAND WEDGE TO STRENGTHEN DOWN
THE APPALACHIANS...STRETCHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
SOLID NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REFLECTING THE ASSOCIATED COOLING TREND BY ONLY
PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE INLAND WEDGE NEAR A DEVELOPING TROUGH...AS WELL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION.
EXPECT INITIAL ACTIVITY TO BE FOUND OVER THE WATERS AND COASTLINE
DURING THE MORNING...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITHIN ONSHORE FLOW. BEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE COASTLINE AFTER SUNSET. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER...FALLING INTO THE MID
60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE IN A
DAMPENING STATE LATE IN THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING INTO
A BAGGY UPPER LOW FEATURE AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND. ENERGY
WITHIN THIS LOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE STRENGTHENING OF A COASTAL
TROUGH INTO A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF
THESE FEATURES...WITH CONSENSUS IN ITS GENERAL TRACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE WATERS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. INLAND
AREAS WITHIN THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN UNDER A DRIER
REGIME...AS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS FOCUSED ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE. HAVE THUS INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR
INLAND...INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE.
RAIN COVERAGE WILL THEN TRANSITION BACK TO THE COASTLINE AND
MARINE ZONES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN COOLER ON
SATURDAY...AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW 80S AND
NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS FALL INTO THE MID 60S.

SUNDAY...THE OFFSHORE SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE WEAK UPPER
LOW BECOMES ABSORBED IN A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE
INLAND WEDGE WILL STEADILY BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FORECAST AREA COULD BECOME
LOCATED WITHIN A BAND OF DRY DEEP LAYER AIR BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE
LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THUS
INDICATED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE
COASTLINE...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY INLAND...TO OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER TRANSITIONING SURFACE FLOW WITHIN
THE ERODING INLAND WEDGE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES ON MONDAY...HELPING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE TO CAP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ORIGINS
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY WARM SEVERAL DEGREES WITHIN FRONTAL
COMPRESSION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY
COOL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK TO ONLY
PEAK IN THE LOW 80S. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
GREAT SO ONLY MENTIONING VCSH AT THE CHS TERMINAL AT THIS POINT.
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING
BUT PROBS REMAIN TOO LOW FOR EARLY ADDITIONS TO THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WITH WIND SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. WE
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 2-3 FT...MAINLY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL. THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FAVORS SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS AGAIN
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS COULD PEAK AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET
SATURDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE INLAND
WEDGE WEAKENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS...1-2
FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT AN ENHANCED PERIOD
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA BEACHES. A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE IN PLACE TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB/WMS







000
FXUS62 KCHS 181453
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1053 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE
NORTH...RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT DRYER AND COOLER CONDITIONS THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
STILL REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ITS AXIS ROUGHLY
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WE SHOULD THEREFORE
SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON AS WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ROUNDS THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID LVL TROUGH. MOST ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO
BE CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RESULTS IN
ENHANCED MOISTURE NEAR A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY...BUT WE STILL CAN
NOT RULE THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY BEFORE SUNSET.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY
INLAND WHERE LATE MORNING FOG LIMITS SFC HEATING. IN GENERAL...TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA TO UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN WITH
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS SUSPECT AFTER MIDNIGHT. INLAND AREAS
MAY ALSO SEE YET ANOTHER BOUT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY TRACK
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES DURING THE DAY...THEN OFF THE
NORTHERN COAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD. THE
MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW AN INLAND WEDGE TO STRENGTHEN DOWN
THE APPALACHIANS...STRETCHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
SOLID NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REFLECTING THE ASSOCIATED COOLING TREND BY ONLY
PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE INLAND WEDGE NEAR A DEVELOPING TROUGH...AS WELL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION.
EXPECT INITIAL ACTIVITY TO BE FOUND OVER THE WATERS AND COASTLINE
DURING THE MORNING...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITHIN ONSHORE FLOW. BEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE COASTLINE AFTER SUNSET. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER...FALLING INTO THE MID
60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE IN A
DAMPENING STATE LATE IN THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING INTO
A BAGGY UPPER LOW FEATURE AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND. ENERGY
WITHIN THIS LOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE STRENGTHENING OF A COASTAL
TROUGH INTO A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF
THESE FEATURES...WITH CONSENSUS IN ITS GENERAL TRACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE WATERS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. INLAND
AREAS WITHIN THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN UNDER A DRIER
REGIME...AS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS FOCUSED ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE. HAVE THUS INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR
INLAND...INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE.
RAIN COVERAGE WILL THEN TRANSITION BACK TO THE COASTLINE AND
MARINE ZONES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN COOLER ON
SATURDAY...AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW 80S AND
NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS FALL INTO THE MID 60S.

SUNDAY...THE OFFSHORE SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE WEAK UPPER
LOW BECOMES ABSORBED IN A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE
INLAND WEDGE WILL STEADILY BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FORECAST AREA COULD BECOME
LOCATED WITHIN A BAND OF DRY DEEP LAYER AIR BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE
LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THUS
INDICATED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE
COASTLINE...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY INLAND...TO OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER TRANSITIONING SURFACE FLOW WITHIN
THE ERODING INLAND WEDGE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES ON MONDAY...HELPING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE TO CAP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ORIGINS
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY WARM SEVERAL DEGREES WITHIN FRONTAL
COMPRESSION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY
COOL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK TO ONLY
PEAK IN THE LOW 80S. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
GREAT SO ONLY MENTIONING VCSH AT THE CHS TERMINAL AT THIS POINT.
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING
BUT PROBS REMAIN TOO LOW FOR EARLY ADDITIONS TO THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WITH WIND SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. WE
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 2-3 FT...MAINLY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL. THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FAVORS SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS AGAIN
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS COULD PEAK AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET
SATURDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE INLAND
WEDGE WEAKENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS...1-2
FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT AN ENHANCED PERIOD
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA BEACHES. A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE IN PLACE TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB/WMS






000
FXUS62 KFFC 181437 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1037 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THAT THE CLOUD DECK IS BREAKING UP
ACROSS THE METRO AREA. EXPECT THE CURRENT FORECAST TO BE ON TRACK.
HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THREAT OF THUNDER TODAY REMAINS LOW.
HOWEVER WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A RIPPLE
IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THUNDER AND RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. NO CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WERE MADE AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ARG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT NEAR AN
AMERICUS TO SWAINSBORO LINE WHERE IT WILL LIKELY MEANDER TODAY.
MODELS HINT AT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES DEVELOPING A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL HIRES MODEL
PRECIP FIELDS ALSO SUGGEST THIS POTENTIAL. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY. A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS WILL DRIFT EAST AND
ESTABLISH A COOL EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD AMPLE LOW
CLOUDS INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT... THEN SET UP A COOL REINFORCING
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SETTLING OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON... WILL ONLY MENTION RAIN
SHOWERS FOR NOW AS MODEL INSTABILITY FIELDS SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE GA COAST AND FURTHER SOUTH INTO
FLORIDA.

AS FOR TEMPS... THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
RESULT IN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE CLOUDY EASTERLY FLOW AND SPOTTY SHOWERS SHOULD RESULT
IN COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY. A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR TEMPS
AND POPS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF CLOUDS AND RAIN POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

39

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH A SLIGHTLY THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NE. THIS WEDGE WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT NOT MUCH
EXPECTED. THIS WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE NW MONDAY MORNING. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH
GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THIS NEXT FRONT EXITS THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES THROUGH DAY 7.

01

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LIFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD FOR AREAS MOSTLY EAST OF
ATL THIS MORNING... BUT THESE CIGS SHOULD SPREAD INTO ATL AT LEAST
TEMPORARY BETWEEN 12-14Z THIS MORNING. THEN SCT MID CLOUDS PREVAIL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW A COOL EASTERLY WEDGE SETTING UP
BY 06-09Z FRI...WITH MOISTURE FIELDS SHOWING MVFR-IFR CIGS SPREADING
BACK IN OVER ATL BETWEEN 07-09Z FRI. CLOUDY WEDGE SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH FRI EVENING WITH PATCHES OF -RA FRI MORNING... THEN ISOLATED
TO SCT SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON. CURRENT LIGHT NNE WINDS SWING BACK NNW
BY 17-18Z TODAY... THEN BACK NNE BETWEEN 04-06Z FRI NIGHT. SPEEDS
WILL BE 4-7KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF WIND SWINGS AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND
TONIGHT. HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  64  81  63 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         84  66  82  65 /  10  10  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  59  77  58 /  10  10  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    84  60  82  65 /  10  10  20  10
COLUMBUS        89  67  86  68 /  10  10  20  10
GAINESVILLE     81  65  79  63 /  20  10  20  20
MACON           87  65  84  65 /  20  20  20  20
ROME            85  59  83  65 /  10  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  84  61  83  64 /  10  10  20  10
VIDALIA         87  67  84  67 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ARG
AVIATION...ARG





000
FXUS62 KFFC 181437 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1037 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THAT THE CLOUD DECK IS BREAKING UP
ACROSS THE METRO AREA. EXPECT THE CURRENT FORECAST TO BE ON TRACK.
HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THREAT OF THUNDER TODAY REMAINS LOW.
HOWEVER WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A RIPPLE
IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THUNDER AND RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. NO CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WERE MADE AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ARG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT NEAR AN
AMERICUS TO SWAINSBORO LINE WHERE IT WILL LIKELY MEANDER TODAY.
MODELS HINT AT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES DEVELOPING A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL HIRES MODEL
PRECIP FIELDS ALSO SUGGEST THIS POTENTIAL. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY. A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS WILL DRIFT EAST AND
ESTABLISH A COOL EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD AMPLE LOW
CLOUDS INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT... THEN SET UP A COOL REINFORCING
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SETTLING OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON... WILL ONLY MENTION RAIN
SHOWERS FOR NOW AS MODEL INSTABILITY FIELDS SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE GA COAST AND FURTHER SOUTH INTO
FLORIDA.

AS FOR TEMPS... THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
RESULT IN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE CLOUDY EASTERLY FLOW AND SPOTTY SHOWERS SHOULD RESULT
IN COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY. A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR TEMPS
AND POPS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF CLOUDS AND RAIN POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

39

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH A SLIGHTLY THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NE. THIS WEDGE WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT NOT MUCH
EXPECTED. THIS WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE NW MONDAY MORNING. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH
GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THIS NEXT FRONT EXITS THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES THROUGH DAY 7.

01

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LIFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD FOR AREAS MOSTLY EAST OF
ATL THIS MORNING... BUT THESE CIGS SHOULD SPREAD INTO ATL AT LEAST
TEMPORARY BETWEEN 12-14Z THIS MORNING. THEN SCT MID CLOUDS PREVAIL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW A COOL EASTERLY WEDGE SETTING UP
BY 06-09Z FRI...WITH MOISTURE FIELDS SHOWING MVFR-IFR CIGS SPREADING
BACK IN OVER ATL BETWEEN 07-09Z FRI. CLOUDY WEDGE SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH FRI EVENING WITH PATCHES OF -RA FRI MORNING... THEN ISOLATED
TO SCT SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON. CURRENT LIGHT NNE WINDS SWING BACK NNW
BY 17-18Z TODAY... THEN BACK NNE BETWEEN 04-06Z FRI NIGHT. SPEEDS
WILL BE 4-7KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF WIND SWINGS AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND
TONIGHT. HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  64  81  63 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         84  66  82  65 /  10  10  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  59  77  58 /  10  10  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    84  60  82  65 /  10  10  20  10
COLUMBUS        89  67  86  68 /  10  10  20  10
GAINESVILLE     81  65  79  63 /  20  10  20  20
MACON           87  65  84  65 /  20  20  20  20
ROME            85  59  83  65 /  10  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  84  61  83  64 /  10  10  20  10
VIDALIA         87  67  84  67 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ARG
AVIATION...ARG






000
FXUS62 KCAE 181412
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1012 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED TO ONE MILE OR HIGHER AT ALL SURFACE
REPORTING STATIONS. ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10AM.
OTHERWISE...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION.
DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR ANY
BOUNDARIES SUCH AS SURFACE TROUGH OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
OR SEA BREEZE ETC...EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SOME POSSIBILTIES OF SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE INSTABILITIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FA AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR MAY PROVIDE AN ISOLATED SEVERE CELL
ACROSS THAT AREA. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE SOME FOG
AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS RELATIVELY SHALLOW SO HAVE KEPT
POPS LOW. HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY UNDER
THE WEDGE SETUP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S
SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIG TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY DRAGGING THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO BELOW HALF
AN INCH. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5
TO 7 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FA ON WEDNESDAY WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK COMPARED TO THE
SOUTHERN FA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT CAE/CUB IN THE NEAR
TERM...WITH MVFR CIGS AT THE OTHER TERMINALS AGS/DNL/OGB...THEN
ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
DAYTIME HEATING EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION
FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EVENING. CONFIDENCE OF SUCH AFFECTING
TERMINALS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DURING THENIGHT PERIODS. EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 181412
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1012 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED TO ONE MILE OR HIGHER AT ALL SURFACE
REPORTING STATIONS. ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10AM.
OTHERWISE...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION.
DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR ANY
BOUNDARIES SUCH AS SURFACE TROUGH OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
OR SEA BREEZE ETC...EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SOME POSSIBILTIES OF SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE INSTABILITIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FA AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR MAY PROVIDE AN ISOLATED SEVERE CELL
ACROSS THAT AREA. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE SOME FOG
AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS RELATIVELY SHALLOW SO HAVE KEPT
POPS LOW. HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY UNDER
THE WEDGE SETUP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S
SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIG TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY DRAGGING THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO BELOW HALF
AN INCH. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5
TO 7 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FA ON WEDNESDAY WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK COMPARED TO THE
SOUTHERN FA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT CAE/CUB IN THE NEAR
TERM...WITH MVFR CIGS AT THE OTHER TERMINALS AGS/DNL/OGB...THEN
ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
DAYTIME HEATING EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION
FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EVENING. CONFIDENCE OF SUCH AFFECTING
TERMINALS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DURING THENIGHT PERIODS. EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 181204
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
804 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...VISIBILITIES ONE HALF MILE OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS. ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXPECTING THE DAY TO START OFF WITH A
COMBINATION OF FOG/STRATUS BEFORE GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY NOON. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY AGAIN...WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AM MORE
INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO BOTH
THE COAST ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE...AND POSSIBLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OFF
TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...JUST BELOW
ISOLATED POP WORDING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 80
ACROSS THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS RELATIVELY SHALLOW SO HAVE KEPT
POPS LOW. HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY UNDER
THE WEDGE SETUP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S
SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIG TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY DRAGGING THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO BELOW HALF
AN INCH. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5
TO 7 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FA ON WEDNESDAY WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK COMPARED TO THE
SOUTHERN FA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR TERM...SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING TO VFR BY AROUND MIDDAY. DAYTIME HEATING PLUS
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. CONFIDENCE OF SUCH AFFECTING TERMINALS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE
NIGHT PERIODS. EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ020>022-
     026>029-031-037-038.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 181141
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
741 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE FRONT
CAMPING OUT ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE. LOW
CLOUDS AND INLAND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER MID MORNING WITH WEAK
850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION FROM W TO E LIKELY TO GENERATE EXPANDING
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS/STRATOCU FIELDS. IN ADDITION...
THE UPPER JET STRUCTURE APT TO DEVELOP SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AT
TIMES.

CONVECTION PROGNOSIS TODAY POINTS TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95
IN SOUTH CAROLINA AS A WEAK LOW PRES REGION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOBE OF
MID LEVEL VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE CAROLINAS WITH BETTER
THERMODYNAMICS AND MUCAPES PROGGED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CORRIDOR
NORTH OF SAVANNAH. WHILE MODELS DO NOT SHOW QUITE AS MUCH OVERALL
INSTABILITY AS WEDNESDAY...A FEW STRONGER TSTMS WITH DOWNPOURS AND
FQT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE. WE BUMPED POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE
ALONG AND E OF I-95 IN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE
SE GEORGIA COASTAL ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING AS STORMS DRAIN DOWN THE
SEA BREEZE. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NSSL WRF HINTS AT SOME
DEVIANT/SPLITTING CELLS AGAIN TODAY...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE
00Z OPERATIONAL NAM APPEARED TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AT
TIMES IN THROUGH TONIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE SUN STAYS OUT MANY
AREAS AND WE BUMPED UP TEMPS CLOSER TO 90 SOUTH OF I-16 IN
GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN WITH
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS SUSPECT AFTER MIDNIGHT. INLAND AREAS
MAY ALSO SEE YET ANOTHER BOUT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY TRACK
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES DURING THE DAY...THEN OFF THE
NORTHERN COAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD. THE
MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW AN INLAND WEDGE TO STRENGTHEN DOWN
THE APPALACHIANS...STRETCHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
SOLID NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REFLECTING THE ASSOCIATED COOLING TREND BY ONLY
PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE INLAND WEDGE NEAR A DEVELOPING TROUGH...AS WELL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION.
EXPECT INITIAL ACTIVITY TO BE FOUND OVER THE WATERS AND COASTLINE
DURING THE MORNING...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITHIN ONSHORE FLOW. BEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE COASTLINE AFTER SUNSET. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER...FALLING INTO THE MID
60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE IN A
DAMPENING STATE LATE IN THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING INTO
A BAGGY UPPER LOW FEATURE AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND. ENERGY
WITHIN THIS LOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE STRENGTHENING OF A COASTAL
TROUGH INTO A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF
THESE FEATURES...WITH CONSENSUS IN ITS GENERAL TRACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE WATERS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. INLAND
AREAS WITHIN THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN UNDER A DRIER
REGIME...AS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS FOCUSED ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE. HAVE THUS INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR
INLAND...INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE.
RAIN COVERAGE WILL THEN TRANSITION BACK TO THE COASTLINE AND
MARINE ZONES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN COOLER ON
SATURDAY...AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW 80S AND
NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS FALL INTO THE MID 60S.

SUNDAY...THE OFFSHORE SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE WEAK UPPER
LOW BECOMES ABSORBED IN A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE
INLAND WEDGE WILL STEADILY BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FORECAST AREA COULD BECOME
LOCATED WITHIN A BAND OF DRY DEEP LAYER AIR BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE
LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THUS
INDICATED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE
COASTLINE...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY INLAND...TO OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER TRANSITIONING SURFACE FLOW WITHIN
THE ERODING INLAND WEDGE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES ON MONDAY...HELPING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE TO CAP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ORIGINS
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY WARM SEVERAL DEGREES WITHIN FRONTAL
COMPRESSION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY
COOL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK TO ONLY
PEAK IN THE LOW 80S. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KCHS THIS MORNING
AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KSAV GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. GOES VSBY
PROGS INDICATE LIFR CONDITIONS NOT FAR AWAY AT 1130Z BUT ALSO SUGGEST
NO REAL ADVECTIVE TRENDS AFTER DAWN. WE INDICATED SOME TEMPO LOWER
CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z AT BOTH AIRPORTS. OTHERWISE VFR TODAY WITH
A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO GREAT SO ONLY INTRODUCING SOME VCSH AT THIS
POINT. TONIGHT MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY...PROBS TOO LOW FOR EARLY ADDITIONS TO THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS TODAY BUT INCREASING A BIT IN ONSHORE FLOW
TONIGHT...NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT IN SWELL WAVE FOR
THE MOST PART. SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
OVER THE WATERS AGAIN TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS COULD PEAK AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET
SATURDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE INLAND
WEDGE WEAKENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS...1-2
FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT AN ENHANCED PERIOD
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA BEACHES. A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE IN PLACE TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...WMS






000
FXUS62 KCHS 181141
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
741 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE FRONT
CAMPING OUT ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE. LOW
CLOUDS AND INLAND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER MID MORNING WITH WEAK
850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION FROM W TO E LIKELY TO GENERATE EXPANDING
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS/STRATOCU FIELDS. IN ADDITION...
THE UPPER JET STRUCTURE APT TO DEVELOP SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AT
TIMES.

CONVECTION PROGNOSIS TODAY POINTS TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95
IN SOUTH CAROLINA AS A WEAK LOW PRES REGION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOBE OF
MID LEVEL VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE CAROLINAS WITH BETTER
THERMODYNAMICS AND MUCAPES PROGGED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CORRIDOR
NORTH OF SAVANNAH. WHILE MODELS DO NOT SHOW QUITE AS MUCH OVERALL
INSTABILITY AS WEDNESDAY...A FEW STRONGER TSTMS WITH DOWNPOURS AND
FQT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE. WE BUMPED POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE
ALONG AND E OF I-95 IN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE
SE GEORGIA COASTAL ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING AS STORMS DRAIN DOWN THE
SEA BREEZE. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NSSL WRF HINTS AT SOME
DEVIANT/SPLITTING CELLS AGAIN TODAY...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE
00Z OPERATIONAL NAM APPEARED TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AT
TIMES IN THROUGH TONIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE SUN STAYS OUT MANY
AREAS AND WE BUMPED UP TEMPS CLOSER TO 90 SOUTH OF I-16 IN
GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN WITH
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS SUSPECT AFTER MIDNIGHT. INLAND AREAS
MAY ALSO SEE YET ANOTHER BOUT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY TRACK
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES DURING THE DAY...THEN OFF THE
NORTHERN COAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD. THE
MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW AN INLAND WEDGE TO STRENGTHEN DOWN
THE APPALACHIANS...STRETCHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
SOLID NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REFLECTING THE ASSOCIATED COOLING TREND BY ONLY
PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE INLAND WEDGE NEAR A DEVELOPING TROUGH...AS WELL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION.
EXPECT INITIAL ACTIVITY TO BE FOUND OVER THE WATERS AND COASTLINE
DURING THE MORNING...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITHIN ONSHORE FLOW. BEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE COASTLINE AFTER SUNSET. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER...FALLING INTO THE MID
60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE IN A
DAMPENING STATE LATE IN THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING INTO
A BAGGY UPPER LOW FEATURE AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND. ENERGY
WITHIN THIS LOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE STRENGTHENING OF A COASTAL
TROUGH INTO A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF
THESE FEATURES...WITH CONSENSUS IN ITS GENERAL TRACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE WATERS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. INLAND
AREAS WITHIN THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN UNDER A DRIER
REGIME...AS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS FOCUSED ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE. HAVE THUS INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR
INLAND...INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE.
RAIN COVERAGE WILL THEN TRANSITION BACK TO THE COASTLINE AND
MARINE ZONES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN COOLER ON
SATURDAY...AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW 80S AND
NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS FALL INTO THE MID 60S.

SUNDAY...THE OFFSHORE SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE WEAK UPPER
LOW BECOMES ABSORBED IN A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE
INLAND WEDGE WILL STEADILY BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FORECAST AREA COULD BECOME
LOCATED WITHIN A BAND OF DRY DEEP LAYER AIR BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE
LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THUS
INDICATED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE
COASTLINE...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY INLAND...TO OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER TRANSITIONING SURFACE FLOW WITHIN
THE ERODING INLAND WEDGE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES ON MONDAY...HELPING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE TO CAP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ORIGINS
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY WARM SEVERAL DEGREES WITHIN FRONTAL
COMPRESSION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY
COOL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK TO ONLY
PEAK IN THE LOW 80S. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KCHS THIS MORNING
AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KSAV GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. GOES VSBY
PROGS INDICATE LIFR CONDITIONS NOT FAR AWAY AT 1130Z BUT ALSO SUGGEST
NO REAL ADVECTIVE TRENDS AFTER DAWN. WE INDICATED SOME TEMPO LOWER
CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z AT BOTH AIRPORTS. OTHERWISE VFR TODAY WITH
A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO GREAT SO ONLY INTRODUCING SOME VCSH AT THIS
POINT. TONIGHT MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY...PROBS TOO LOW FOR EARLY ADDITIONS TO THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS TODAY BUT INCREASING A BIT IN ONSHORE FLOW
TONIGHT...NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT IN SWELL WAVE FOR
THE MOST PART. SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
OVER THE WATERS AGAIN TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS COULD PEAK AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET
SATURDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE INLAND
WEDGE WEAKENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS...1-2
FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT AN ENHANCED PERIOD
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA BEACHES. A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE IN PLACE TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...WMS







000
FXUS62 KFFC 181135
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
735 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT NEAR AN
AMERICUS TO SWAINSBORO LINE WHERE IT WILL LIKELY MEANDER TODAY.
MODELS HINT AT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES DEVELOPING A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL HIRES MODEL
PRECIP FIELDS ALSO SUGGEST THIS POTENTIAL. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY. A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS WILL DRIFT EAST AND
ESTABLISH A COOL EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD AMPLE LOW
CLOUDS INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT... THEN SET UP A COOL REINFORCING
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SETTLING OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON... WILL ONLY MENTION RAIN
SHOWERS FOR NOW AS MODEL INSTABILITY FIELDS SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE GA COAST AND FURTHER SOUTH INTO
FLORIDA.

AS FOR TEMPS... THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
RESULT IN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE CLOUDY EASTERLY FLOW AND SPOTTY SHOWERS SHOULD RESULT
IN COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY. A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR TEMPS
AND POPS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF CLOUDS AND RAIN POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

39


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH A SLIGHTLY THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NE. THIS WEDGE WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT NOT MUCH
EXPECTED. THIS WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE NW MONDAY MORNING. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH
GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THIS NEXT FRONT EXITS THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES THROUGH DAY 7.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LIFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD FOR AREAS MOSTLY EAST OF
ATL THIS MORNING... BUT THESE CIGS SHOULD SPREAD INTO ATL AT LEAST
TEMPORARY BETWEEN 12-14Z THIS MORNING. THEN SCT MID CLOUDS PREVAIL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW A COOL EASTERLY WEDGE SETTING UP
BY 06-09Z FRI...WITH MOISTURE FIELDS SHOWING MVFR-IFR CIGS SPREADING
BACK IN OVER ATL BETWEEN 07-09Z FRI. CLOUDY WEDGE SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH FRI EVENING WITH PATCHES OF -RA FRI MORNING... THEN ISOLATED
TO SCT SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON. CURRENT LIGHT NNE WINDS SWING BACK NNW
BY 17-18Z TODAY... THEN BACK NNE BETWEEN 04-06Z FRI NIGHT. SPEEDS
WILL BE 4-7KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF WIND SWINGS AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND
TONIGHT. HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  64  81  63 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         84  66  82  65 /  10  10  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  59  77  58 /  10  10  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    84  60  82  65 /  10  10  20  10
COLUMBUS        89  67  86  68 /  10  10  20  10
GAINESVILLE     81  65  79  63 /  20  10  20  20
MACON           87  65  84  65 /  20  20  20  20
ROME            85  59  83  65 /  10  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  84  61  83  64 /  10  10  20  10
VIDALIA         87  67  84  67 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39









000
FXUS62 KFFC 181135
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
735 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT NEAR AN
AMERICUS TO SWAINSBORO LINE WHERE IT WILL LIKELY MEANDER TODAY.
MODELS HINT AT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES DEVELOPING A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL HIRES MODEL
PRECIP FIELDS ALSO SUGGEST THIS POTENTIAL. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY. A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS WILL DRIFT EAST AND
ESTABLISH A COOL EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD AMPLE LOW
CLOUDS INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT... THEN SET UP A COOL REINFORCING
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SETTLING OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON... WILL ONLY MENTION RAIN
SHOWERS FOR NOW AS MODEL INSTABILITY FIELDS SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE GA COAST AND FURTHER SOUTH INTO
FLORIDA.

AS FOR TEMPS... THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
RESULT IN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE CLOUDY EASTERLY FLOW AND SPOTTY SHOWERS SHOULD RESULT
IN COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY. A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR TEMPS
AND POPS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF CLOUDS AND RAIN POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

39


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH A SLIGHTLY THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NE. THIS WEDGE WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT NOT MUCH
EXPECTED. THIS WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE NW MONDAY MORNING. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH
GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THIS NEXT FRONT EXITS THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES THROUGH DAY 7.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LIFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD FOR AREAS MOSTLY EAST OF
ATL THIS MORNING... BUT THESE CIGS SHOULD SPREAD INTO ATL AT LEAST
TEMPORARY BETWEEN 12-14Z THIS MORNING. THEN SCT MID CLOUDS PREVAIL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW A COOL EASTERLY WEDGE SETTING UP
BY 06-09Z FRI...WITH MOISTURE FIELDS SHOWING MVFR-IFR CIGS SPREADING
BACK IN OVER ATL BETWEEN 07-09Z FRI. CLOUDY WEDGE SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH FRI EVENING WITH PATCHES OF -RA FRI MORNING... THEN ISOLATED
TO SCT SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON. CURRENT LIGHT NNE WINDS SWING BACK NNW
BY 17-18Z TODAY... THEN BACK NNE BETWEEN 04-06Z FRI NIGHT. SPEEDS
WILL BE 4-7KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF WIND SWINGS AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND
TONIGHT. HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  64  81  63 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         84  66  82  65 /  10  10  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  59  77  58 /  10  10  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    84  60  82  65 /  10  10  20  10
COLUMBUS        89  67  86  68 /  10  10  20  10
GAINESVILLE     81  65  79  63 /  20  10  20  20
MACON           87  65  84  65 /  20  20  20  20
ROME            85  59  83  65 /  10  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  84  61  83  64 /  10  10  20  10
VIDALIA         87  67  84  67 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39








000
FXUS62 KCAE 181032
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
632 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECTING THE DAY TO START OFF WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG/STRATUS
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY NOON. UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AGAIN...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AM MORE INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO BOTH THE COAST ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE...AND
POSSIBLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OFF TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP CURRENT
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...JUST BELOW ISOLATED POP WORDING. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 80 ACROSS THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS RELATIVELY SHALLOW SO HAVE KEPT
POPS LOW. HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY UNDER
THE WEDGE SETUP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S
SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIG TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY DRAGGING THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO BELOW HALF
AN INCH. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5
TO 7 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FA ON WEDNESDAY WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK COMPARED TO THE
SOUTHERN FA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR BY LATE MORNING.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS HAVE CAUSE A GOOD BIT OF IFR STRATUS TO FORM ACROSS THE
REGION. IN SOME AREAS VISIBILITIES HAVE FALLEN TO LESS THAN
3SM...WITH SOME AREAS ALSO LESS THAN 3/4SM AT TIMES. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 15Z AT MANY SITES...THEN
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE NIGHT PERIODS. EXPECT
A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 181032
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
632 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECTING THE DAY TO START OFF WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG/STRATUS
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY NOON. UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AGAIN...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AM MORE INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO BOTH THE COAST ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE...AND
POSSIBLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OFF TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP CURRENT
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...JUST BELOW ISOLATED POP WORDING. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 80 ACROSS THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS RELATIVELY SHALLOW SO HAVE KEPT
POPS LOW. HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY UNDER
THE WEDGE SETUP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S
SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIG TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY DRAGGING THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO BELOW HALF
AN INCH. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5
TO 7 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FA ON WEDNESDAY WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK COMPARED TO THE
SOUTHERN FA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR BY LATE MORNING.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS HAVE CAUSE A GOOD BIT OF IFR STRATUS TO FORM ACROSS THE
REGION. IN SOME AREAS VISIBILITIES HAVE FALLEN TO LESS THAN
3SM...WITH SOME AREAS ALSO LESS THAN 3/4SM AT TIMES. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 15Z AT MANY SITES...THEN
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE NIGHT PERIODS. EXPECT
A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 181012
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
612 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...EXPECTING THE DAY TO START OFF WITH A COMBINATION OF
FOG/STRATUS BEFORE GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY NOON.
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY
AGAIN...WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AM MORE INCLINED TO
BELIEVE THE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO BOTH THE COAST
ALONG THE SEA- BREEZE...AND POSSIBLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OFF TO THE
WEST. WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...JUST BELOW ISOLATED
POP WORDING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS RELATIVELY SHALLOW SO HAVE KEPT
POPS LOW. HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY UNDER
THE WEDGE SETUP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S
SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIG TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY DRAGGING THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO BELOW HALF
AN INCH. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5
TO 7 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FA ON WEDNESDAY WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK COMPARED TO THE
SOUTHERN FA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS MAY START OFF THE PERIOD...MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
LAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS WILL PROVIDE THREAT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW CEILINGS THE
MAIN THREAT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...WITH LOW VISIBILITIES THE ISSUE
ACROSS THE CSRA. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN BOTH CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES. A SLOW RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH VFR THEN EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 181012
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
612 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...EXPECTING THE DAY TO START OFF WITH A COMBINATION OF
FOG/STRATUS BEFORE GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY NOON.
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY
AGAIN...WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AM MORE INCLINED TO
BELIEVE THE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO BOTH THE COAST
ALONG THE SEA- BREEZE...AND POSSIBLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OFF TO THE
WEST. WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...JUST BELOW ISOLATED
POP WORDING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS RELATIVELY SHALLOW SO HAVE KEPT
POPS LOW. HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY UNDER
THE WEDGE SETUP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S
SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIG TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY DRAGGING THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO BELOW HALF
AN INCH. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5
TO 7 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FA ON WEDNESDAY WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK COMPARED TO THE
SOUTHERN FA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS MAY START OFF THE PERIOD...MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
LAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS WILL PROVIDE THREAT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW CEILINGS THE
MAIN THREAT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...WITH LOW VISIBILITIES THE ISSUE
ACROSS THE CSRA. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN BOTH CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES. A SLOW RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH VFR THEN EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 181012
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
612 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...EXPECTING THE DAY TO START OFF WITH A COMBINATION OF
FOG/STRATUS BEFORE GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY NOON.
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY
AGAIN...WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AM MORE INCLINED TO
BELIEVE THE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO BOTH THE COAST
ALONG THE SEA- BREEZE...AND POSSIBLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OFF TO THE
WEST. WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...JUST BELOW ISOLATED
POP WORDING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS RELATIVELY SHALLOW SO HAVE KEPT
POPS LOW. HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY UNDER
THE WEDGE SETUP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S
SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIG TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY DRAGGING THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO BELOW HALF
AN INCH. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5
TO 7 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FA ON WEDNESDAY WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK COMPARED TO THE
SOUTHERN FA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS MAY START OFF THE PERIOD...MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
LAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS WILL PROVIDE THREAT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW CEILINGS THE
MAIN THREAT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...WITH LOW VISIBILITIES THE ISSUE
ACROSS THE CSRA. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN BOTH CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES. A SLOW RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH VFR THEN EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 181012
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
612 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...EXPECTING THE DAY TO START OFF WITH A COMBINATION OF
FOG/STRATUS BEFORE GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY NOON.
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY
AGAIN...WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AM MORE INCLINED TO
BELIEVE THE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO BOTH THE COAST
ALONG THE SEA- BREEZE...AND POSSIBLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OFF TO THE
WEST. WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...JUST BELOW ISOLATED
POP WORDING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS RELATIVELY SHALLOW SO HAVE KEPT
POPS LOW. HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY UNDER
THE WEDGE SETUP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S
SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIG TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY DRAGGING THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO BELOW HALF
AN INCH. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5
TO 7 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FA ON WEDNESDAY WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK COMPARED TO THE
SOUTHERN FA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS MAY START OFF THE PERIOD...MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
LAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS WILL PROVIDE THREAT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW CEILINGS THE
MAIN THREAT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...WITH LOW VISIBILITIES THE ISSUE
ACROSS THE CSRA. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN BOTH CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES. A SLOW RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH VFR THEN EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 180839
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT NEAR AN
AMERICUS TO SWAINSBORO LINE WHERE IT WILL LIKELY MEANDER TODAY.
MODELS HINT AT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES DEVELOPING A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL HIRES MODEL
PRECIP FIELDS ALSO SUGGEST THIS POTENTIAL. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY. A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS WILL DRIFT EAST AND
ESTABLISH A COOL EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD AMPLE LOW
CLOUDS INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT... THEN SET UP A COOL REINFORCING
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SETTLING OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON... WILL ONLY MENTION RAIN
SHOWERS FOR NOW AS MODEL INSTABILITY FIELDS SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE GA COAST AND FURTHER SOUTH INTO FLORIDA.

AS FOR TEMPS... THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
RESULT IN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE CLOUDY EASTERLY FLOW AND SPOTTY SHOWERS SHOULD RESULT
IN COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY. A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR TEMPS
AND POPS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF CLOUDS AND RAIN POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

39


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH A SLIGHTLY THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NE. THIS WEDGE WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT NOT MUCH
EXPECTED. THIS WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE NW MONDAY MORNING. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH
GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THIS NEXT FRONT EXITS THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES THROUGH DAY 7.

01

&&




01

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NE AND EAST CENTRAL GA AROUND
AHN THIS MORNING. EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD WESTWARD AND
POTENTIALLY THREATEN THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 10-14Z THIS
MORNING. WILL SHOW TEMPO 11-14Z BKN012 FOR NOW AS STILL UNCERTAIN
HOW FAR WEST IT WILL SPREAD. THESE CIGS SHOULD SCT BY 14-15Z... WITH
SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THRU THE AFTERNOON. MODEL MOISTURE
FIELDS SUGGEST THE MVFR/IFR CIGS MAY THREATEN AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AROUND 09-10Z. MODELS SHOW ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS FAR EAST GA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE TRICKY... WITH
CURRENT LIGHT NNW WINDS SWINGING NNE AROUND 09-12Z THIS MORNING...
THEN BACK NNW THIS AFTERNOON... THEN LIKELY SWING BACK NNE LATE THIS
EVENING AROUND 03Z FRI.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  64  81  63 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         84  66  82  65 /  10  10  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  59  77  58 /  10  10  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    84  60  82  65 /  10  10  20  10
COLUMBUS        89  67  86  68 /  10  10  20  10
GAINESVILLE     81  65  79  63 /  20  10  20  20
MACON           87  65  84  65 /  20  20  20  20
ROME            85  59  83  65 /  10  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  84  61  83  64 /  10  10  20  10
VIDALIA         87  67  84  67 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39





000
FXUS62 KFFC 180839
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
439 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT NEAR AN
AMERICUS TO SWAINSBORO LINE WHERE IT WILL LIKELY MEANDER TODAY.
MODELS HINT AT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES DEVELOPING A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL HIRES MODEL
PRECIP FIELDS ALSO SUGGEST THIS POTENTIAL. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY. A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS WILL DRIFT EAST AND
ESTABLISH A COOL EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD AMPLE LOW
CLOUDS INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT... THEN SET UP A COOL REINFORCING
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SETTLING OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON... WILL ONLY MENTION RAIN
SHOWERS FOR NOW AS MODEL INSTABILITY FIELDS SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE GA COAST AND FURTHER SOUTH INTO FLORIDA.

AS FOR TEMPS... THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
RESULT IN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE CLOUDY EASTERLY FLOW AND SPOTTY SHOWERS SHOULD RESULT
IN COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY. A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR TEMPS
AND POPS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF CLOUDS AND RAIN POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

39


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH A SLIGHTLY THE DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NE. THIS WEDGE WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA BUT NOT MUCH
EXPECTED. THIS WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE NW MONDAY MORNING. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH
GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE THIS NEXT FRONT EXITS THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES THROUGH DAY 7.

01

&&




01

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NE AND EAST CENTRAL GA AROUND
AHN THIS MORNING. EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD WESTWARD AND
POTENTIALLY THREATEN THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 10-14Z THIS
MORNING. WILL SHOW TEMPO 11-14Z BKN012 FOR NOW AS STILL UNCERTAIN
HOW FAR WEST IT WILL SPREAD. THESE CIGS SHOULD SCT BY 14-15Z... WITH
SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THRU THE AFTERNOON. MODEL MOISTURE
FIELDS SUGGEST THE MVFR/IFR CIGS MAY THREATEN AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AROUND 09-10Z. MODELS SHOW ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS FAR EAST GA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE TRICKY... WITH
CURRENT LIGHT NNW WINDS SWINGING NNE AROUND 09-12Z THIS MORNING...
THEN BACK NNW THIS AFTERNOON... THEN LIKELY SWING BACK NNE LATE THIS
EVENING AROUND 03Z FRI.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  64  81  63 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         84  66  82  65 /  10  10  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  59  77  58 /  10  10  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    84  60  82  65 /  10  10  20  10
COLUMBUS        89  67  86  68 /  10  10  20  10
GAINESVILLE     81  65  79  63 /  20  10  20  20
MACON           87  65  84  65 /  20  20  20  20
ROME            85  59  83  65 /  10  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  84  61  83  64 /  10  10  20  10
VIDALIA         87  67  84  67 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39






000
FXUS62 KCHS 180816
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
416 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...ISOLATED CONVECTION LINGERED ACROSS PARTS OF AREA THROUGH
1 AM BEFORE GATHERING OFFSHORE AND MOVING OUT INTO THE GULF STREAM.
LATEST EMC RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING CIN AND NOT MUCH
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY LEFT THUS WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOR DAWN. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WERE DEVELOPING INLAND AND SOME
SPOTS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG. AT THIS TIME...NO REGION
TO SINGLE OUT FOR VSBY PROBLEMS...ALTHOUGH SOUTH OF I-16 IN
GEORGIA WILL BE AN AREA TO WATCH.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE FRONT CAMPING
OUT ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE. LOW CLOUDS AND
INLAND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER MID MORNING WITH WEAK 850 MB
THETA-E ADVECTION FROM W TO E LIKELY TO GENERATE EXPANDING LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS/STRATOCU FIELDS. IN ADDITION...UPPER
JET STRUCTURE APT TO DEVELOP SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES.

CONVECTION PROGNOSIS TODAY POINTS TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95
IN SOUTH CAROLINA AS A WEAK LOW PRES REGION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOBE OF
MID LEVEL VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE CAROLINAS WITH BETTER
THERMODYNAMICS AND MUCAPES PROGGED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CORRIDOR
NORTH OF SAVANNAH. WHILE MODELS DO NOT SHOW QUITE AS MUCH OVERALL
INSTABILITY AS WEDNESDAY...A FEW STRONGER TSTMS WITH DOWNPOURS AND
FQT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE. WE BUMPED POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE
ALONG AND E OF I-95 IN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE
SE GEORGIA COASTAL ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING AS STORMS DRAIN DOWN THE
SEA BREEZE. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NSSL WRF HINTS AT SOME
DEVIANT/SPLITTING CELLS AGAIN TODAY...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE
00Z OPERATIONAL NAM APPEARED TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AT
TIMES IN THROUGH TONIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE SUN STAYS OUT MANY
AREAS AND WE BUMPED UP TEMPS CLOSER TO 90 SOUTH OF I-16 IN
GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN WITH
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS SUSPECT AFTER MIDNIGHT. INLAND AREAS
MAY ALSO SEE YET ANOTHER BOUT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY TRACK
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES DURING THE DAY...THEN OFF THE
NORTHERN COAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD. THE
MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW AN INLAND WEDGE TO STRENGTHEN DOWN
THE APPALACHIANS...STRETCHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
SOLID NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REFLECTING THE ASSOCIATED COOLING TREND BY ONLY
PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE INLAND WEDGE NEAR A DEVELOPING TROUGH...AS WELL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION.
EXPECT INITIAL ACTIVITY TO BE FOUND OVER THE WATERS AND COASTLINE
DURING THE MORNING...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITHIN ONSHORE FLOW. BEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE COASTLINE AFTER SUNSET. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER...FALLING INTO THE MID
60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE IN A
DAMPENING STATE LATE IN THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING INTO
A BAGGY UPPER LOW FEATURE AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND. ENERGY
WITHIN THIS LOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE STRENGTHENING OF A COASTAL
TROUGH INTO A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF
THESE FEATURES...WITH CONSENSUS IN ITS GENERAL TRACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE WATERS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. INLAND
AREAS WITHIN THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN UNDER A DRIER
REGIME...AS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS FOCUSED ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE. HAVE THUS INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR
INLAND...INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE.
RAIN COVERAGE WILL THEN TRANSITION BACK TO THE COASTLINE AND
MARINE ZONES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN COOLER ON
SATURDAY...AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW 80S AND
NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS FALL INTO THE MID 60S.

SUNDAY...THE OFFSHORE SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE WEAK UPPER
LOW BECOMES ABSORBED IN A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE
INLAND WEDGE WILL STEADILY BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FORECAST AREA COULD BECOME
LOCATED WITHIN A BAND OF DRY DEEP LAYER AIR BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE
LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THUS
INDICATED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE
COASTLINE...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY INLAND...TO OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER TRANSITIONING SURFACE FLOW WITHIN
THE ERODING INLAND WEDGE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES ON MONDAY...HELPING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE TO CAP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ORIGINS
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY WARM SEVERAL DEGREES WITHIN FRONTAL
COMPRESSION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY
COOL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK TO ONLY
PEAK IN THE LOW 80S. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOTH SITES HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT STRATUS AND/OR
FOG...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TO OCCUR FROM AROUND 09-13Z.
WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THURSDAY WILL BE VFR...ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY
NEED TO ADDRESS THE CONCERN FOR IMPACTS ON BOTH OF EITHER
TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS TODAY BUT INCREASING A BIT IN ONSHORE FLOW
TONIGHT...NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT IN SWELL WAVE FOR
THE MOST PART. SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
OVER THE WATERS AGAIN TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS COULD PEAK AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET
SATURDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE INLAND
WEDGE WEAKENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS...1-2
FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT AN ENHANCED PERIOD
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA BEACHES. A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE IN PLACE TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...WMS






000
FXUS62 KCHS 180816
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
416 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...ISOLATED CONVECTION LINGERED ACROSS PARTS OF AREA THROUGH
1 AM BEFORE GATHERING OFFSHORE AND MOVING OUT INTO THE GULF STREAM.
LATEST EMC RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING CIN AND NOT MUCH
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY LEFT THUS WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOR DAWN. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WERE DEVELOPING INLAND AND SOME
SPOTS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG. AT THIS TIME...NO REGION
TO SINGLE OUT FOR VSBY PROBLEMS...ALTHOUGH SOUTH OF I-16 IN
GEORGIA WILL BE AN AREA TO WATCH.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE FRONT CAMPING
OUT ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE. LOW CLOUDS AND
INLAND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER MID MORNING WITH WEAK 850 MB
THETA-E ADVECTION FROM W TO E LIKELY TO GENERATE EXPANDING LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS/STRATOCU FIELDS. IN ADDITION...UPPER
JET STRUCTURE APT TO DEVELOP SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES.

CONVECTION PROGNOSIS TODAY POINTS TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95
IN SOUTH CAROLINA AS A WEAK LOW PRES REGION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOBE OF
MID LEVEL VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE CAROLINAS WITH BETTER
THERMODYNAMICS AND MUCAPES PROGGED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CORRIDOR
NORTH OF SAVANNAH. WHILE MODELS DO NOT SHOW QUITE AS MUCH OVERALL
INSTABILITY AS WEDNESDAY...A FEW STRONGER TSTMS WITH DOWNPOURS AND
FQT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE. WE BUMPED POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE
ALONG AND E OF I-95 IN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE
SE GEORGIA COASTAL ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING AS STORMS DRAIN DOWN THE
SEA BREEZE. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NSSL WRF HINTS AT SOME
DEVIANT/SPLITTING CELLS AGAIN TODAY...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE
00Z OPERATIONAL NAM APPEARED TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AT
TIMES IN THROUGH TONIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE SUN STAYS OUT MANY
AREAS AND WE BUMPED UP TEMPS CLOSER TO 90 SOUTH OF I-16 IN
GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN WITH
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS SUSPECT AFTER MIDNIGHT. INLAND AREAS
MAY ALSO SEE YET ANOTHER BOUT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY TRACK
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES DURING THE DAY...THEN OFF THE
NORTHERN COAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD. THE
MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW AN INLAND WEDGE TO STRENGTHEN DOWN
THE APPALACHIANS...STRETCHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
SOLID NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REFLECTING THE ASSOCIATED COOLING TREND BY ONLY
PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE INLAND WEDGE NEAR A DEVELOPING TROUGH...AS WELL
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION.
EXPECT INITIAL ACTIVITY TO BE FOUND OVER THE WATERS AND COASTLINE
DURING THE MORNING...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITHIN ONSHORE FLOW. BEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE COASTLINE AFTER SUNSET. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER...FALLING INTO THE MID
60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE IN A
DAMPENING STATE LATE IN THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING INTO
A BAGGY UPPER LOW FEATURE AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND. ENERGY
WITHIN THIS LOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE STRENGTHENING OF A COASTAL
TROUGH INTO A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF
THESE FEATURES...WITH CONSENSUS IN ITS GENERAL TRACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE WATERS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. INLAND
AREAS WITHIN THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN UNDER A DRIER
REGIME...AS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS FOCUSED ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE. HAVE THUS INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR
INLAND...INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE.
RAIN COVERAGE WILL THEN TRANSITION BACK TO THE COASTLINE AND
MARINE ZONES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN COOLER ON
SATURDAY...AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW 80S AND
NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS FALL INTO THE MID 60S.

SUNDAY...THE OFFSHORE SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE WEAK UPPER
LOW BECOMES ABSORBED IN A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE
INLAND WEDGE WILL STEADILY BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FORECAST AREA COULD BECOME
LOCATED WITHIN A BAND OF DRY DEEP LAYER AIR BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE
LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. HAVE THUS
INDICATED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE
COASTLINE...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY INLAND...TO OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER TRANSITIONING SURFACE FLOW WITHIN
THE ERODING INLAND WEDGE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES ON MONDAY...HELPING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE TO CAP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ORIGINS
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY WARM SEVERAL DEGREES WITHIN FRONTAL
COMPRESSION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY
COOL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK TO ONLY
PEAK IN THE LOW 80S. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOTH SITES HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT STRATUS AND/OR
FOG...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TO OCCUR FROM AROUND 09-13Z.
WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THURSDAY WILL BE VFR...ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY
NEED TO ADDRESS THE CONCERN FOR IMPACTS ON BOTH OF EITHER
TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS TODAY BUT INCREASING A BIT IN ONSHORE FLOW
TONIGHT...NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT IN SWELL WAVE FOR
THE MOST PART. SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
OVER THE WATERS AGAIN TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS COULD PEAK AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET
SATURDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE INLAND
WEDGE WEAKENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS...1-2
FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT AN ENHANCED PERIOD
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA BEACHES. A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE IN PLACE TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...WMS







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180555
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
155 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED TO AREAS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE
AREA WITH SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ALSO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. PLENTY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...AND WITH THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS FORMATION IN AREAS
TOWARDS MORNING. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG IN SOME
LOCATIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...READINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE 60S
OVERNIGHT BUT HOW LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO REACH WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
NORTH AND WESTERN MIDLANDS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY...EXPECTING THE DAY TO START OFF WITH A COMBINATION OF
FOG/STRATUS BEFORE GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY NOON. UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AGAIN...WHILE AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AM MORE INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO BOTH THE COAST ALONG THE SEA-
BREEZE...AND POSSIBLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OFF TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP
CURRENT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...JUST BELOW ISOLATED POP WORDING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 80 ACROSS THE NORTH...TO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN WITH
A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST GA ON FRIDAY. H5
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS LOW AS MINUS 11C. WEAK INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
FARTHER SOUTH BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. ALL MODELS FORECAST THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO RIDGE INTO OUR AREA BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SEVERAL HARD TO TIME
WEAK SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE ARE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WEAK CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES SATURDAY WITH A WITH CUTOFF LOW OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EJECTING THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE POPS SHOWN BY THE GFS
ENSEMBLES...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY, ALSO.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS MAY START OFF THE PERIOD...MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
LAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS WILL PROVIDE THREAT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW CEILINGS THE
MAIN THREAT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...WITH LOW VISIBILITIES THE ISSUE
ACROSS THE CSRA. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN BOTH CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES. A SLOW RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH VFR THEN EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 180555
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
155 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED TO AREAS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE
AREA WITH SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ALSO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. PLENTY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...AND WITH THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS FORMATION IN AREAS
TOWARDS MORNING. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG IN SOME
LOCATIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...READINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE 60S
OVERNIGHT BUT HOW LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO REACH WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
NORTH AND WESTERN MIDLANDS TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY...EXPECTING THE DAY TO START OFF WITH A COMBINATION OF
FOG/STRATUS BEFORE GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY NOON. UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AGAIN...WHILE AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AM MORE INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO BOTH THE COAST ALONG THE SEA-
BREEZE...AND POSSIBLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OFF TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP
CURRENT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...JUST BELOW ISOLATED POP WORDING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 80 ACROSS THE NORTH...TO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN WITH
A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST GA ON FRIDAY. H5
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS LOW AS MINUS 11C. WEAK INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
FARTHER SOUTH BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. ALL MODELS FORECAST THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO RIDGE INTO OUR AREA BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SEVERAL HARD TO TIME
WEAK SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE ARE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WEAK CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES SATURDAY WITH A WITH CUTOFF LOW OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EJECTING THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE POPS SHOWN BY THE GFS
ENSEMBLES...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY, ALSO.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS MAY START OFF THE PERIOD...MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
LAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS WILL PROVIDE THREAT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW CEILINGS THE
MAIN THREAT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...WITH LOW VISIBILITIES THE ISSUE
ACROSS THE CSRA. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN BOTH CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES. A SLOW RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH VFR THEN EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KFFC 180547
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
147 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014


.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/
WITH VARIOUS BOUNDARIES TO WORK WITH AND ENOUGH RESIDUAL DEEP
LAYER...STILL DEALING WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
GEORGIA. ADDED THIS TO THE UPDATED GRID SET BUT ONLY UNTIL 04Z AND
THEN SHOULD SEE NIL POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER CANADA AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA AND HAVE
CONTINUED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  MODELS SHOW AN MCS OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FOR INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW.
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE...BUT THINK WE WILL SEE
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW.  GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND.

ATWELL

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS MORE
CONSISTENT WITH INDICATING EASTERLY FLOW EVENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS SLIGHTLY
/TO SLIGHT CHANCE/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
CWA. ASIDE FROM THAT...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

31

/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION AND NO PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE STATE
WILL KEEP GEORGIA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH GA MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STAYING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO NORTH GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE
DECIDED TO ONLY GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING THE PRECIP SOUTHWARD
MONDAY/TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOLER TEMPS IN
STORE FOR THE STATE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COOLER DRIER AIR MASS
MOVING IN. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NE AND EAST CENTRAL GA AROUND
AHN THIS MORNING. EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD WESTWARD AND
POTENTIALLY THREATEN THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 10-14Z THIS
MORNING. WILL SHOW TEMPO 11-14Z BKN012 FOR NOW AS STILL UNCERTAIN
HOW FAR WEST IT WILL SPREAD. THESE CIGS SHOULD SCT BY 14-15Z... WITH
SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THRU THE AFTERNOON. MODEL MOISTURE
FIELDS SUGGEST THE MVFR/IFR CIGS MAY THREATEN AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AROUND 09-10Z. MODELS SHOW ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS FAR EAST GA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE TRICKY... WITH
CURRENT LIGHT NNW WINDS SWINGING NNE AROUND 09-12Z THIS MORNING...
THEN BACK NNW THIS AFTERNOON... THEN LIKELY SWING BACK NNE LATE THIS
EVENING AROUND 03Z FRI.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  83  63  80 /   5  10  10  10
ATLANTA         64  84  65  81 /   5   5  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  79  56  76 /  10  10   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    58  85  60  83 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        65  88  66  87 /   5   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     64  82  63  78 /  10  10  10  10
MACON           63  87  63  86 /  20   5   5  20
ROME            58  86  59  84 /   5   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  58  85  61  83 /   5   5   5  10
VIDALIA         67  85  69  86 /  30  10  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE/39
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...39








000
FXUS62 KFFC 180547
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
147 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014


.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/
WITH VARIOUS BOUNDARIES TO WORK WITH AND ENOUGH RESIDUAL DEEP
LAYER...STILL DEALING WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
GEORGIA. ADDED THIS TO THE UPDATED GRID SET BUT ONLY UNTIL 04Z AND
THEN SHOULD SEE NIL POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER CANADA AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA AND HAVE
CONTINUED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  MODELS SHOW AN MCS OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FOR INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW.
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE...BUT THINK WE WILL SEE
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW.  GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND.

ATWELL

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS MORE
CONSISTENT WITH INDICATING EASTERLY FLOW EVENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS SLIGHTLY
/TO SLIGHT CHANCE/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
CWA. ASIDE FROM THAT...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

31

/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION AND NO PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE STATE
WILL KEEP GEORGIA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH GA MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STAYING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO NORTH GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE
DECIDED TO ONLY GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING THE PRECIP SOUTHWARD
MONDAY/TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOLER TEMPS IN
STORE FOR THE STATE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COOLER DRIER AIR MASS
MOVING IN. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NE AND EAST CENTRAL GA AROUND
AHN THIS MORNING. EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD WESTWARD AND
POTENTIALLY THREATEN THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 10-14Z THIS
MORNING. WILL SHOW TEMPO 11-14Z BKN012 FOR NOW AS STILL UNCERTAIN
HOW FAR WEST IT WILL SPREAD. THESE CIGS SHOULD SCT BY 14-15Z... WITH
SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THRU THE AFTERNOON. MODEL MOISTURE
FIELDS SUGGEST THE MVFR/IFR CIGS MAY THREATEN AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AROUND 09-10Z. MODELS SHOW ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS FAR EAST GA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE TRICKY... WITH
CURRENT LIGHT NNW WINDS SWINGING NNE AROUND 09-12Z THIS MORNING...
THEN BACK NNW THIS AFTERNOON... THEN LIKELY SWING BACK NNE LATE THIS
EVENING AROUND 03Z FRI.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  83  63  80 /   5  10  10  10
ATLANTA         64  84  65  81 /   5   5  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  79  56  76 /  10  10   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    58  85  60  83 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        65  88  66  87 /   5   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     64  82  63  78 /  10  10  10  10
MACON           63  87  63  86 /  20   5   5  20
ROME            58  86  59  84 /   5   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  58  85  61  83 /   5   5   5  10
VIDALIA         67  85  69  86 /  30  10  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE/39
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...39









000
FXUS62 KCHS 180542
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
142 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THERE IS STILL SOME CONVECTION ONGOING AS OF EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...DRIVEN MAINLY BY A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AIDED BY THE RIGHT
REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WAS NOW
OFFSHORE BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR LATER TONIGHT WILL BE THE FORMATION
OF FOG...GIVEN SOME DRY AIR ALOFT...THE SATURATED GROUNDS FROM
RECENT RAINS AND CALM WINDS. WE HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST
LOCATIONS OVER LAND AFTER 3 OR 4 AM...BUT ALSO A STRIP WHERE AREAS
OF FOG WILL OCCUR ALONG THE WEST/NW ZONES. THIS IS WHERE WE FIND
THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...THE MOST FAVORABLE
FOG STABILITY INDICES AND ALSO WHERE CROSS-OVER TEMPS WILL EASILY
BE MET. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT ENOUGH THERE WOULD BE A RISK FOR SOME
DENSE FOG.

WHERE WE HAVE SEEN SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING OF SKIES WE HAVE SOME
TEMPS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S. THIS IS A DEFINITE
INDICATION THAT A CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS FORTHCOMING AND ALTHOUGH
THE TEMP CURVE WILL BOUNCE AROUND A COUPLE OF DEGREES...WE DO LOOK
FOR FAIRLY COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 65-70 DEGREE
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE LOWER 70S
WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN STARTS THE PERIOD WITH A
BROAD...FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST U.S. AND RIDGE OVER
THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GT. LAKES...WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FORM A WEDGE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THIS WILL PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL ENE FLOW. ALL MODELS SHOW ONLY MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE LAND AREA...BUT WITH SOME WEAK OVER-RUNNING WITH THE
WEDGE...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTERN 1/3 OF LAND AND INTO MARINE
AREA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH...UPPER 80S SOUTH.  BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THINK ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO ATLANTIC WATERS
AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE SOME COASTAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OCCURS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COAST...AND
CHANCE OUT INTO ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED...WITH THE
MAIN JET CONFINED OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. HOWEVER...AT THE
SURFACE...A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE...STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND...SOUTHWARD TO GEORGIA.
EAST-NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER...IN THE LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...THINK BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS AS A WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE LAND
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRIES TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
ATLANTIC.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AGAIN WITH A
SHARPENING TROUGH OVER THE EAST...WHICH HELPS TO KICK OUT A WEAK LOW
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE BULK OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AGAIN RESIDES OVER THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS. KEPT CHANCE POPS COAST...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE INLAND. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE PERIPHERY OF INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
UPSTREAM. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT THEN
STEADILY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ORIGINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE THUS
CAPPED RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...BEFORE A NOTABLE COOLING TREND
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOTH SITES HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT STRATUS AND/OR
FOG...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TO OCCUR FROM AROUND 09-13Z.
WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THURSDAY WILL BE VFR...ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY
NEED TO ADDRESS THE CONCERN FOR IMPACTS ON BOTH OF EITHER
TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE GULF STREAM OFF THE SC
COAST MOVES EAST/NE. THERE WILL BE...WITH VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS
AT NO MORE THAN 10 KT OR SO...THEN BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY LATE
ACROSS THE SC WATERS. STRONG TSTMS WITH WIND SIGNATURES EXCEEDING
40 KT WERE PLOWING OFFSHORE OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE AND
BEAUFORT COUNTY. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS WERE IN PLACE AS OF 130 AM.

ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE IN REGARDS TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED
FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS. SWELL PERIODS WILL AVERAGE 12-15 SECONDS...AND
DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD AROUND 2-3 FT WITHIN 20 NM BUT UP
TO 3-4 FT FURTHER OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM. LATEST GUIDANCE
INCREASES WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20
KT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET SATURDAY...THEN WEAKEN AGAIN BY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS...1-2 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT AN
ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 180542
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
142 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THERE IS STILL SOME CONVECTION ONGOING AS OF EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...DRIVEN MAINLY BY A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AIDED BY THE RIGHT
REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WAS NOW
OFFSHORE BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR LATER TONIGHT WILL BE THE FORMATION
OF FOG...GIVEN SOME DRY AIR ALOFT...THE SATURATED GROUNDS FROM
RECENT RAINS AND CALM WINDS. WE HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST
LOCATIONS OVER LAND AFTER 3 OR 4 AM...BUT ALSO A STRIP WHERE AREAS
OF FOG WILL OCCUR ALONG THE WEST/NW ZONES. THIS IS WHERE WE FIND
THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...THE MOST FAVORABLE
FOG STABILITY INDICES AND ALSO WHERE CROSS-OVER TEMPS WILL EASILY
BE MET. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT ENOUGH THERE WOULD BE A RISK FOR SOME
DENSE FOG.

WHERE WE HAVE SEEN SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING OF SKIES WE HAVE SOME
TEMPS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S. THIS IS A DEFINITE
INDICATION THAT A CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS FORTHCOMING AND ALTHOUGH
THE TEMP CURVE WILL BOUNCE AROUND A COUPLE OF DEGREES...WE DO LOOK
FOR FAIRLY COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 65-70 DEGREE
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE LOWER 70S
WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN STARTS THE PERIOD WITH A
BROAD...FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST U.S. AND RIDGE OVER
THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GT. LAKES...WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FORM A WEDGE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THIS WILL PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL ENE FLOW. ALL MODELS SHOW ONLY MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE LAND AREA...BUT WITH SOME WEAK OVER-RUNNING WITH THE
WEDGE...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTERN 1/3 OF LAND AND INTO MARINE
AREA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH...UPPER 80S SOUTH.  BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THINK ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO ATLANTIC WATERS
AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE SOME COASTAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OCCURS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COAST...AND
CHANCE OUT INTO ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED...WITH THE
MAIN JET CONFINED OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. HOWEVER...AT THE
SURFACE...A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE...STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND...SOUTHWARD TO GEORGIA.
EAST-NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER...IN THE LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...THINK BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS AS A WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE LAND
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRIES TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
ATLANTIC.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AGAIN WITH A
SHARPENING TROUGH OVER THE EAST...WHICH HELPS TO KICK OUT A WEAK LOW
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE BULK OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AGAIN RESIDES OVER THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS. KEPT CHANCE POPS COAST...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE INLAND. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE PERIPHERY OF INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
UPSTREAM. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT THEN
STEADILY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ORIGINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE THUS
CAPPED RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...BEFORE A NOTABLE COOLING TREND
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOTH SITES HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT STRATUS AND/OR
FOG...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TO OCCUR FROM AROUND 09-13Z.
WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THURSDAY WILL BE VFR...ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY
NEED TO ADDRESS THE CONCERN FOR IMPACTS ON BOTH OF EITHER
TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE GULF STREAM OFF THE SC
COAST MOVES EAST/NE. THERE WILL BE...WITH VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS
AT NO MORE THAN 10 KT OR SO...THEN BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY LATE
ACROSS THE SC WATERS. STRONG TSTMS WITH WIND SIGNATURES EXCEEDING
40 KT WERE PLOWING OFFSHORE OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE AND
BEAUFORT COUNTY. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS WERE IN PLACE AS OF 130 AM.

ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE IN REGARDS TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED
FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS. SWELL PERIODS WILL AVERAGE 12-15 SECONDS...AND
DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD AROUND 2-3 FT WITHIN 20 NM BUT UP
TO 3-4 FT FURTHER OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM. LATEST GUIDANCE
INCREASES WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20
KT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET SATURDAY...THEN WEAKEN AGAIN BY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS...1-2 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT AN
ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KFFC 180300
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014


.UPDATE...

WITH VARIOUS BOUNDARIES TO WORK WITH AND ENOUGH RESIDUAL DEEP
LAYER...STILL DEALING WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
GEORGIA. ADDED THIS TO THE UPDATED GRID SET BUT ONLY UNTIL 04Z AND
THEN SHOULD SEE NIL POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER CANADA AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA AND HAVE
CONTINUED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  MODELS SHOW AN MCS OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FOR INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW.
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE...BUT THINK WE WILL SEE
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW.  GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND.

ATWELL

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS MORE
CONSISTENT WITH INDICATING EASTERLY FLOW EVENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS SLIGHTLY
/TO SLIGHT CHANCE/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
CWA. ASIDE FROM THAT...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

31

/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION AND NO PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE STATE
WILL KEEP GEORGIA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH GA MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STAYING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO NORTH GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE
DECIDED TO ONLY GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING THE PRECIP SOUTHWARD
MONDAY/TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOLER TEMPS IN
STORE FOR THE STATE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COOLER DRIER AIR MASS
MOVING IN. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

01

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
TSRA THUS FAR HAS REMAINED OUTSIDE OF THE TERMINALS AND THAT TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME MFR TO POTENTIALLY
IFR CONDITIONS WILL STREAM INTO EAST GEORGIA FROM NC TONIGHT BUT
THINKING MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE FOR THE AHN TERMINALS WHERE OVC010
CONDITIONS ARE ADVERTISED. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR
WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW CLOUD SHIELD AS IT COULD APPROACH
ATL TOWARD DAYBREAK. HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA IN
THE GRIDS BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAF.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  83  63  80 /   5  10  10  10
ATLANTA         64  84  65  81 /   5   5  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  79  56  76 /  10  10   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    58  85  60  83 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        65  88  66  87 /   5   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     64  82  63  78 /  10  10  10  10
MACON           63  87  63  86 /  20   5   5  20
ROME            58  86  59  84 /   5   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  58  85  61  83 /   5   5   5  10
VIDALIA         67  85  69  86 /  30  10  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...DEESE






000
FXUS62 KFFC 180300
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014


.UPDATE...

WITH VARIOUS BOUNDARIES TO WORK WITH AND ENOUGH RESIDUAL DEEP
LAYER...STILL DEALING WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
GEORGIA. ADDED THIS TO THE UPDATED GRID SET BUT ONLY UNTIL 04Z AND
THEN SHOULD SEE NIL POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER CANADA AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA AND HAVE
CONTINUED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  MODELS SHOW AN MCS OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FOR INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW.
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE...BUT THINK WE WILL SEE
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW.  GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND.

ATWELL

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS MORE
CONSISTENT WITH INDICATING EASTERLY FLOW EVENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS SLIGHTLY
/TO SLIGHT CHANCE/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
CWA. ASIDE FROM THAT...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

31

/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION AND NO PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE STATE
WILL KEEP GEORGIA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH GA MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STAYING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO NORTH GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE
DECIDED TO ONLY GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING THE PRECIP SOUTHWARD
MONDAY/TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOLER TEMPS IN
STORE FOR THE STATE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COOLER DRIER AIR MASS
MOVING IN. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

01

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
TSRA THUS FAR HAS REMAINED OUTSIDE OF THE TERMINALS AND THAT TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME MFR TO POTENTIALLY
IFR CONDITIONS WILL STREAM INTO EAST GEORGIA FROM NC TONIGHT BUT
THINKING MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE FOR THE AHN TERMINALS WHERE OVC010
CONDITIONS ARE ADVERTISED. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR
WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW CLOUD SHIELD AS IT COULD APPROACH
ATL TOWARD DAYBREAK. HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA IN
THE GRIDS BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAF.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  83  63  80 /   5  10  10  10
ATLANTA         64  84  65  81 /   5   5  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  79  56  76 /  10  10   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    58  85  60  83 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        65  88  66  87 /   5   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     64  82  63  78 /  10  10  10  10
MACON           63  87  63  86 /  20   5   5  20
ROME            58  86  59  84 /   5   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  58  85  61  83 /   5   5   5  10
VIDALIA         67  85  69  86 /  30  10  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KCHS 180222
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1022 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURPRISINGLY THERE IS STILL SOME CONVECTION ONGOING AS OF LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING...DRIVEN MAINLY BY A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AIDED BY
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. MESO-ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW INCREASING CINH...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING BOUNDARIES
AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT.
THEREAFTER THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AFTER 2
OR 3 AM.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR LATER TONIGHT WILL BE THE FORMATION
OF FOG...GIVEN SOME DRY AIR ALOFT...THE SATURATED GROUNDS FROM
RECENT RAINS AND CALM WINDS. WE HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST
LOCATIONS OVER LAND AFTER 3 OR 4 AM...BUT ALSO A STRIP WHERE AREAS
OF FOG WILL OCCUR ALONG THE WEST/NW ZONES. THIS IS WHERE WE FIND
THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...THE MOST FAVORABLE
FOG STABILITY INDICES AND ALSO WHERE CROSS-OVER TEMPS WILL EASILY
BE MET. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT ENOUGH THERE WOULD BE A RISK FOR SOME
DENSE FOG.

WHERE WE HAVE SEEN SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING OF SKIES WE HAVE SOME
TEMPS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S. THIS IS A DEFINITE
INDICATION THAT A CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS FORTHCOMING AND ALTHOUGH
THE TEMP CURVE WILL BOUNCE AROUND A COUPLE OF DEGREES...WE DO LOOK
FOR FAIRLY COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 65-70 DEGREE
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE LOWER 70S
WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN STARTS THE PERIOD WITH A
BROAD...FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST U.S. AND RIDGE OVER
THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GT. LAKES...WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FORM A WEDGE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THIS WILL PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL ENE FLOW. ALL MODELS SHOW ONLY MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE LAND AREA...BUT WITH SOME WEAK OVER-RUNNING WITH THE
WEDGE...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTERN 1/3 OF LAND AND INTO MARINE
AREA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH...UPPER 80S SOUTH.  BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THINK ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO ATLANTIC WATERS
AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE SOME COASTAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OCCURS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COAST...AND
CHANCE OUT INTO ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED...WITH THE
MAIN JET CONFINED OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. HOWEVER...AT THE
SURFACE...A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE...STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND...SOUTHWARD TO GEORGIA.
EAST-NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER...IN THE LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...THINK BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS AS A WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE LAND
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRIES TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
ATLANTIC.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AGAIN WITH A
SHARPENING TROUGH OVER THE EAST...WHICH HELPS TO KICK OUT A WEAK LOW
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE BULK OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AGAIN RESIDES OVER THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS. KEPT CHANCE POPS COAST...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE INLAND. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE PERIPHERY OF INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
UPSTREAM. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT THEN
STEADILY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ORIGINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE THUS
CAPPED RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...BEFORE A NOTABLE COOLING TREND
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COULD STILL SEE A PERIOD OF TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND MAYBE A TSRA MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE ALOFT. OTHERWISE...VFR.

BOTH SITES HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT STRATUS AND/OR
FOG...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TO OCCUR FROM AROUND 09-13Z.
WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THURSDAY WILL BE VFR...ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY
NEED TO ADDRESS THE CONCERN FOR IMPACTS ON BOTH OF EITHER
TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE GULF STREAM OFF THE SC
COAST MOVES EAST/NE. THERE WILL BE...WITH VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS
AT NO MORE THAN 10 KT OR SO...THEN BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY LATE
ACROSS THE SC WATERS. THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE IN REGARDS TO LONG
PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS. SWELL PERIODS WILL AVERAGE
12-15 SECONDS...AND DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD AROUND 2-3 FT
WITHIN 20 NM BUT UP TO 3-4 FT FURTHER OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM. LATEST GUIDANCE
INCREASES WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20
KTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET SATURDAY...THEN WEAKEN AGAIN BY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS...1-2 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT AN
ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 180222
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1022 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURPRISINGLY THERE IS STILL SOME CONVECTION ONGOING AS OF LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING...DRIVEN MAINLY BY A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AIDED BY
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. MESO-ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW INCREASING CINH...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING BOUNDARIES
AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT.
THEREAFTER THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AFTER 2
OR 3 AM.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR LATER TONIGHT WILL BE THE FORMATION
OF FOG...GIVEN SOME DRY AIR ALOFT...THE SATURATED GROUNDS FROM
RECENT RAINS AND CALM WINDS. WE HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST
LOCATIONS OVER LAND AFTER 3 OR 4 AM...BUT ALSO A STRIP WHERE AREAS
OF FOG WILL OCCUR ALONG THE WEST/NW ZONES. THIS IS WHERE WE FIND
THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...THE MOST FAVORABLE
FOG STABILITY INDICES AND ALSO WHERE CROSS-OVER TEMPS WILL EASILY
BE MET. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT ENOUGH THERE WOULD BE A RISK FOR SOME
DENSE FOG.

WHERE WE HAVE SEEN SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING OF SKIES WE HAVE SOME
TEMPS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S. THIS IS A DEFINITE
INDICATION THAT A CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS FORTHCOMING AND ALTHOUGH
THE TEMP CURVE WILL BOUNCE AROUND A COUPLE OF DEGREES...WE DO LOOK
FOR FAIRLY COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 65-70 DEGREE
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE LOWER 70S
WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN STARTS THE PERIOD WITH A
BROAD...FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST U.S. AND RIDGE OVER
THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GT. LAKES...WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FORM A WEDGE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THIS WILL PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL ENE FLOW. ALL MODELS SHOW ONLY MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE LAND AREA...BUT WITH SOME WEAK OVER-RUNNING WITH THE
WEDGE...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTERN 1/3 OF LAND AND INTO MARINE
AREA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH...UPPER 80S SOUTH.  BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THINK ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO ATLANTIC WATERS
AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE SOME COASTAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OCCURS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COAST...AND
CHANCE OUT INTO ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED...WITH THE
MAIN JET CONFINED OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. HOWEVER...AT THE
SURFACE...A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE...STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND...SOUTHWARD TO GEORGIA.
EAST-NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER...IN THE LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...THINK BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS AS A WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE LAND
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRIES TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
ATLANTIC.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AGAIN WITH A
SHARPENING TROUGH OVER THE EAST...WHICH HELPS TO KICK OUT A WEAK LOW
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE BULK OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AGAIN RESIDES OVER THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS. KEPT CHANCE POPS COAST...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE INLAND. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE PERIPHERY OF INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
UPSTREAM. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT THEN
STEADILY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ORIGINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE THUS
CAPPED RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...BEFORE A NOTABLE COOLING TREND
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COULD STILL SEE A PERIOD OF TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND MAYBE A TSRA MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE ALOFT. OTHERWISE...VFR.

BOTH SITES HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT STRATUS AND/OR
FOG...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TO OCCUR FROM AROUND 09-13Z.
WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THURSDAY WILL BE VFR...ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY
NEED TO ADDRESS THE CONCERN FOR IMPACTS ON BOTH OF EITHER
TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE GULF STREAM OFF THE SC
COAST MOVES EAST/NE. THERE WILL BE...WITH VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS
AT NO MORE THAN 10 KT OR SO...THEN BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY LATE
ACROSS THE SC WATERS. THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE IN REGARDS TO LONG
PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS. SWELL PERIODS WILL AVERAGE
12-15 SECONDS...AND DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD AROUND 2-3 FT
WITHIN 20 NM BUT UP TO 3-4 FT FURTHER OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM. LATEST GUIDANCE
INCREASES WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20
KTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET SATURDAY...THEN WEAKEN AGAIN BY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS...1-2 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT AN
ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 180222
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1022 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURPRISINGLY THERE IS STILL SOME CONVECTION ONGOING AS OF LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING...DRIVEN MAINLY BY A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AIDED BY
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. MESO-ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW INCREASING CINH...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING BOUNDARIES
AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT.
THEREAFTER THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AFTER 2
OR 3 AM.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR LATER TONIGHT WILL BE THE FORMATION
OF FOG...GIVEN SOME DRY AIR ALOFT...THE SATURATED GROUNDS FROM
RECENT RAINS AND CALM WINDS. WE HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST
LOCATIONS OVER LAND AFTER 3 OR 4 AM...BUT ALSO A STRIP WHERE AREAS
OF FOG WILL OCCUR ALONG THE WEST/NW ZONES. THIS IS WHERE WE FIND
THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...THE MOST FAVORABLE
FOG STABILITY INDICES AND ALSO WHERE CROSS-OVER TEMPS WILL EASILY
BE MET. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT ENOUGH THERE WOULD BE A RISK FOR SOME
DENSE FOG.

WHERE WE HAVE SEEN SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING OF SKIES WE HAVE SOME
TEMPS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S. THIS IS A DEFINITE
INDICATION THAT A CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS FORTHCOMING AND ALTHOUGH
THE TEMP CURVE WILL BOUNCE AROUND A COUPLE OF DEGREES...WE DO LOOK
FOR FAIRLY COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 65-70 DEGREE
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE LOWER 70S
WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN STARTS THE PERIOD WITH A
BROAD...FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST U.S. AND RIDGE OVER
THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GT. LAKES...WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FORM A WEDGE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THIS WILL PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL ENE FLOW. ALL MODELS SHOW ONLY MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE LAND AREA...BUT WITH SOME WEAK OVER-RUNNING WITH THE
WEDGE...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTERN 1/3 OF LAND AND INTO MARINE
AREA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH...UPPER 80S SOUTH.  BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THINK ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO ATLANTIC WATERS
AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE SOME COASTAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OCCURS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COAST...AND
CHANCE OUT INTO ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED...WITH THE
MAIN JET CONFINED OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. HOWEVER...AT THE
SURFACE...A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE...STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND...SOUTHWARD TO GEORGIA.
EAST-NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER...IN THE LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...THINK BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS AS A WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE LAND
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRIES TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
ATLANTIC.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AGAIN WITH A
SHARPENING TROUGH OVER THE EAST...WHICH HELPS TO KICK OUT A WEAK LOW
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE BULK OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AGAIN RESIDES OVER THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS. KEPT CHANCE POPS COAST...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE INLAND. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE PERIPHERY OF INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
UPSTREAM. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT THEN
STEADILY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ORIGINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE THUS
CAPPED RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...BEFORE A NOTABLE COOLING TREND
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COULD STILL SEE A PERIOD OF TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND MAYBE A TSRA MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE ALOFT. OTHERWISE...VFR.

BOTH SITES HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT STRATUS AND/OR
FOG...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TO OCCUR FROM AROUND 09-13Z.
WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THURSDAY WILL BE VFR...ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY
NEED TO ADDRESS THE CONCERN FOR IMPACTS ON BOTH OF EITHER
TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE GULF STREAM OFF THE SC
COAST MOVES EAST/NE. THERE WILL BE...WITH VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS
AT NO MORE THAN 10 KT OR SO...THEN BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY LATE
ACROSS THE SC WATERS. THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE IN REGARDS TO LONG
PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS. SWELL PERIODS WILL AVERAGE
12-15 SECONDS...AND DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD AROUND 2-3 FT
WITHIN 20 NM BUT UP TO 3-4 FT FURTHER OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM. LATEST GUIDANCE
INCREASES WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20
KTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET SATURDAY...THEN WEAKEN AGAIN BY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS...1-2 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT AN
ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 180222
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1022 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURPRISINGLY THERE IS STILL SOME CONVECTION ONGOING AS OF LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING...DRIVEN MAINLY BY A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AIDED BY
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. MESO-ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW INCREASING CINH...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING BOUNDARIES
AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT.
THEREAFTER THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AFTER 2
OR 3 AM.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR LATER TONIGHT WILL BE THE FORMATION
OF FOG...GIVEN SOME DRY AIR ALOFT...THE SATURATED GROUNDS FROM
RECENT RAINS AND CALM WINDS. WE HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR MOST
LOCATIONS OVER LAND AFTER 3 OR 4 AM...BUT ALSO A STRIP WHERE AREAS
OF FOG WILL OCCUR ALONG THE WEST/NW ZONES. THIS IS WHERE WE FIND
THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...THE MOST FAVORABLE
FOG STABILITY INDICES AND ALSO WHERE CROSS-OVER TEMPS WILL EASILY
BE MET. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT ENOUGH THERE WOULD BE A RISK FOR SOME
DENSE FOG.

WHERE WE HAVE SEEN SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING OF SKIES WE HAVE SOME
TEMPS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S. THIS IS A DEFINITE
INDICATION THAT A CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS FORTHCOMING AND ALTHOUGH
THE TEMP CURVE WILL BOUNCE AROUND A COUPLE OF DEGREES...WE DO LOOK
FOR FAIRLY COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 65-70 DEGREE
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE LOWER 70S
WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN STARTS THE PERIOD WITH A
BROAD...FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST U.S. AND RIDGE OVER
THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GT. LAKES...WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FORM A WEDGE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THIS WILL PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL ENE FLOW. ALL MODELS SHOW ONLY MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE LAND AREA...BUT WITH SOME WEAK OVER-RUNNING WITH THE
WEDGE...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTERN 1/3 OF LAND AND INTO MARINE
AREA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH...UPPER 80S SOUTH.  BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THINK ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO ATLANTIC WATERS
AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE SOME COASTAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OCCURS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COAST...AND
CHANCE OUT INTO ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED...WITH THE
MAIN JET CONFINED OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. HOWEVER...AT THE
SURFACE...A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE...STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND...SOUTHWARD TO GEORGIA.
EAST-NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER...IN THE LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...THINK BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS AS A WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE LAND
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRIES TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
ATLANTIC.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AGAIN WITH A
SHARPENING TROUGH OVER THE EAST...WHICH HELPS TO KICK OUT A WEAK LOW
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE BULK OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AGAIN RESIDES OVER THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS. KEPT CHANCE POPS COAST...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE INLAND. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE PERIPHERY OF INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
UPSTREAM. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT THEN
STEADILY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ORIGINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE THUS
CAPPED RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...BEFORE A NOTABLE COOLING TREND
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COULD STILL SEE A PERIOD OF TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND MAYBE A TSRA MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE ALOFT. OTHERWISE...VFR.

BOTH SITES HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT STRATUS AND/OR
FOG...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TO OCCUR FROM AROUND 09-13Z.
WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THURSDAY WILL BE VFR...ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY
NEED TO ADDRESS THE CONCERN FOR IMPACTS ON BOTH OF EITHER
TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE GULF STREAM OFF THE SC
COAST MOVES EAST/NE. THERE WILL BE...WITH VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS
AT NO MORE THAN 10 KT OR SO...THEN BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY LATE
ACROSS THE SC WATERS. THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE IN REGARDS TO LONG
PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS. SWELL PERIODS WILL AVERAGE
12-15 SECONDS...AND DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD AROUND 2-3 FT
WITHIN 20 NM BUT UP TO 3-4 FT FURTHER OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM. LATEST GUIDANCE
INCREASES WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20
KTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET SATURDAY...THEN WEAKEN AGAIN BY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS...1-2 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT AN
ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCAE 180217 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1017 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA
WITH SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ALSO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MESOANALYSIS DATA
INDICATES ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AT 850MB AND 925MB
AND THINK THERE IS A REASONABLE THREAT FOR ANOTHER MORNING WITH
AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE LOWER 70S ALREADY AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT BUT HOW LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO REACH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH AND WESTERN MIDLANDS
TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
WITH A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST GA ON FRIDAY. H5
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS LOW AS MINUS 11C. WEAK INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
FARTHER SOUTH BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. ALL MODELS FORECAST THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO RIDGE INTO OUR AREA BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SEVERAL HARD TO TIME
WEAK SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE ARE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LACK OF OMEGA...WILL NOT FOLLOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WEAK CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES SATURDAY WITH A WITH CUTOFF LOW OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EJECTING THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE POPS SHOWN BY THE GFS
ENSEMBLES...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY, ALSO.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY DIMINISHING
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS LATE THIS EVENING. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL
PROVIDE THREAT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW CIGS THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SOME
POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. A SLOW RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 180217 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1017 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA
WITH SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ALSO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MESOANALYSIS DATA
INDICATES ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AT 850MB AND 925MB
AND THINK THERE IS A REASONABLE THREAT FOR ANOTHER MORNING WITH
AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE LOWER 70S ALREADY AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT BUT HOW LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO REACH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH AND WESTERN MIDLANDS
TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
WITH A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST GA ON FRIDAY. H5
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS LOW AS MINUS 11C. WEAK INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
FARTHER SOUTH BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. ALL MODELS FORECAST THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO RIDGE INTO OUR AREA BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SEVERAL HARD TO TIME
WEAK SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE ARE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LACK OF OMEGA...WILL NOT FOLLOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WEAK CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES SATURDAY WITH A WITH CUTOFF LOW OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EJECTING THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE POPS SHOWN BY THE GFS
ENSEMBLES...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY, ALSO.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY DIMINISHING
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS LATE THIS EVENING. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL
PROVIDE THREAT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW CIGS THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SOME
POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. A SLOW RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 180217 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1017 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA
WITH SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ALSO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MESOANALYSIS DATA
INDICATES ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AT 850MB AND 925MB
AND THINK THERE IS A REASONABLE THREAT FOR ANOTHER MORNING WITH
AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE LOWER 70S ALREADY AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT BUT HOW LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO REACH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH AND WESTERN MIDLANDS
TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
WITH A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST GA ON FRIDAY. H5
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS LOW AS MINUS 11C. WEAK INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
FARTHER SOUTH BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. ALL MODELS FORECAST THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO RIDGE INTO OUR AREA BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SEVERAL HARD TO TIME
WEAK SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE ARE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LACK OF OMEGA...WILL NOT FOLLOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WEAK CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES SATURDAY WITH A WITH CUTOFF LOW OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EJECTING THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE POPS SHOWN BY THE GFS
ENSEMBLES...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY, ALSO.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY DIMINISHING
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS LATE THIS EVENING. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL
PROVIDE THREAT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW CIGS THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SOME
POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. A SLOW RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 180217 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1017 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA
WITH SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ALSO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MESOANALYSIS DATA
INDICATES ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AT 850MB AND 925MB
AND THINK THERE IS A REASONABLE THREAT FOR ANOTHER MORNING WITH
AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE LOWER 70S ALREADY AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT BUT HOW LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO REACH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH AND WESTERN MIDLANDS
TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
WITH A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST GA ON FRIDAY. H5
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS LOW AS MINUS 11C. WEAK INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
FARTHER SOUTH BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. ALL MODELS FORECAST THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO RIDGE INTO OUR AREA BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SEVERAL HARD TO TIME
WEAK SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE ARE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LACK OF OMEGA...WILL NOT FOLLOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WEAK CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES SATURDAY WITH A WITH CUTOFF LOW OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EJECTING THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE POPS SHOWN BY THE GFS
ENSEMBLES...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY, ALSO.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY DIMINISHING
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS LATE THIS EVENING. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL
PROVIDE THREAT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW CIGS THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SOME
POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. A SLOW RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 180013
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
813 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER CANADA AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA AND HAVE
CONTINUED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  MODELS SHOW AN MCS OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FOR INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW.
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE...BUT THINK WE WILL SEE
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW.  GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND.

ATWELL

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS MORE
CONSISTENT WITH INDICATING EASTERLY FLOW EVENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS SLIGHTLY
/TO SLIGHT CHANCE/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
CWA. ASIDE FROM THAT...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

31

/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION AND NO PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE STATE
WILL KEEP GEORGIA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH GA MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STAYING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO NORTH GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE
DECIDED TO ONLY GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING THE PRECIP SOUTHWARD
MONDAY/TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOLER TEMPS IN
STORE FOR THE STATE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COOLER DRIER AIR MASS
MOVING IN. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
TSRA THUS FAR HAS REMAINED OUTSIDE OF THE TERMINALS AND THAT TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME MFR TO POTENTIALLY
IFR CONDITIONS WILL STREAM INTO EAST GEORGIA FROM NC TONIGHT BUT
THINKING MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE FOR THE AHN TERMINALS WHERE OVC010
CONDITIONS ARE ADVERTISED. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR
WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW CLOUD SHIELD AS IT COULD APPROACH
ATL TOWARD DAYBREAK. HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA IN
THE GRIDS BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAF.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  83  63  80 /   5  10  10  10
ATLANTA         64  84  65  81 /   5   5  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  79  56  76 /  10  10   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    58  85  60  83 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        65  88  66  87 /   5   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     64  82  63  78 /  10  10  10  10
MACON           63  87  63  86 /  20   5   5  20
ROME            58  86  59  84 /   5   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  58  85  61  83 /   5   5   5  10
VIDALIA         67  85  69  86 /  30  10  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...DEESE






000
FXUS62 KFFC 180013
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
813 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER CANADA AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA AND HAVE
CONTINUED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  MODELS SHOW AN MCS OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FOR INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW.
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE...BUT THINK WE WILL SEE
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW.  GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND.

ATWELL

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS MORE
CONSISTENT WITH INDICATING EASTERLY FLOW EVENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS SLIGHTLY
/TO SLIGHT CHANCE/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
CWA. ASIDE FROM THAT...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

31

/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION AND NO PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE STATE
WILL KEEP GEORGIA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH GA MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STAYING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO NORTH GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE
DECIDED TO ONLY GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING THE PRECIP SOUTHWARD
MONDAY/TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOLER TEMPS IN
STORE FOR THE STATE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COOLER DRIER AIR MASS
MOVING IN. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
TSRA THUS FAR HAS REMAINED OUTSIDE OF THE TERMINALS AND THAT TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME MFR TO POTENTIALLY
IFR CONDITIONS WILL STREAM INTO EAST GEORGIA FROM NC TONIGHT BUT
THINKING MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE FOR THE AHN TERMINALS WHERE OVC010
CONDITIONS ARE ADVERTISED. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR
WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW CLOUD SHIELD AS IT COULD APPROACH
ATL TOWARD DAYBREAK. HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA IN
THE GRIDS BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAF.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  83  63  80 /   5  10  10  10
ATLANTA         64  84  65  81 /   5   5  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  79  56  76 /  10  10   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    58  85  60  83 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        65  88  66  87 /   5   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     64  82  63  78 /  10  10  10  10
MACON           63  87  63  86 /  20   5   5  20
ROME            58  86  59  84 /   5   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  58  85  61  83 /   5   5   5  10
VIDALIA         67  85  69  86 /  30  10  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KCHS 172324
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
724 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND COLLETON COUNTIES...
WHERE LOCALIZE HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING...CANNOT RULE OUT THROUGH SUNSET.

ONCE PRECIP ACTIVITY DIMINISHES EARLY TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL THEN SWITCH OVER TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG LATE. BEST CHANCES
OF FOG WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH A
LARGE PART OF THE NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG OVER ALL AREAS
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN STARTS THE PERIOD WITH A
BROAD...FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST U.S. AND RIDGE OVER
THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GT. LAKES...WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FORM A WEDGE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THIS WILL PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL ENE FLOW. ALL MODELS SHOW ONLY MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE LAND AREA...BUT WITH SOME WEAK OVER-RUNNING WITH THE
WEDGE...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTERN 1/3 OF LAND AND INTO MARINE
AREA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH...UPPER 80S SOUTH.  BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THINK ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO ATLANTIC WATERS
AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE SOME COASTAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OCCURS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COAST...AND
CHANCE OUT INTO ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED...WITH THE
MAIN JET CONFINED OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. HOWEVER...AT THE
SURFACE...A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE...STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND...SOUTHWARD TO GEORGIA.
EAST-NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER...IN THE LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...THINK BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS AS A WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE LAND
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRIES TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
ATLANTIC.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AGAIN WITH A
SHARPENING TROUGH OVER THE EAST...WHICH HELPS TO KICK OUT A WEAK LOW
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE BULK OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AGAIN RESIDES OVER THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS. KEPT CHANCE POPS COAST...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE INLAND. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE PERIPHERY OF INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
UPSTREAM. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT THEN
STEADILY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ORIGINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE THUS
CAPPED RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...BEFORE A NOTABLE COOLING TREND
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE KSAV TERMINAL WILL IMPACT THE
AIRPORT WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AND -TSRA THROUGH
02Z..,WHILE KCHS LOOKS FREE AND CLEAR OF ANY ADDITIONAL SHRA
AND/OR TSRA TONIGHT. BOTH SITES HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT
STRATUS AND/OR FOG...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TO OCCUR FROM
AROUND 09-13Z. WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THURSDAY WILL BE
VFR...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND LATER TAF
ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO ADDRESS THE CONCERN FOR IMPACTS ON BOTH OF
EITHER TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A BRIEF SURGE OF WINDS HAS BEEN NOTED
WITH A BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTH OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS DESPITE ENHANCED SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE ONSHORE AND THEN REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-3 FT NEARSHORE TO 3-4 FT BEYOND 20
NM FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM. LATEST GUIDANCE
INCREASES WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20
KTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET SATURDAY...THEN WEAKEN AGAIN BY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS...1-2 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT AN
ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB/RFM
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB/RFM






000
FXUS62 KCHS 172324
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
724 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND COLLETON COUNTIES...
WHERE LOCALIZE HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING...CANNOT RULE OUT THROUGH SUNSET.

ONCE PRECIP ACTIVITY DIMINISHES EARLY TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL THEN SWITCH OVER TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG LATE. BEST CHANCES
OF FOG WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH A
LARGE PART OF THE NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG OVER ALL AREAS
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN STARTS THE PERIOD WITH A
BROAD...FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST U.S. AND RIDGE OVER
THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GT. LAKES...WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FORM A WEDGE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THIS WILL PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL ENE FLOW. ALL MODELS SHOW ONLY MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE LAND AREA...BUT WITH SOME WEAK OVER-RUNNING WITH THE
WEDGE...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTERN 1/3 OF LAND AND INTO MARINE
AREA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH...UPPER 80S SOUTH.  BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THINK ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO ATLANTIC WATERS
AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE SOME COASTAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OCCURS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COAST...AND
CHANCE OUT INTO ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED...WITH THE
MAIN JET CONFINED OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. HOWEVER...AT THE
SURFACE...A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE...STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND...SOUTHWARD TO GEORGIA.
EAST-NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER...IN THE LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...THINK BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS AS A WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE LAND
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRIES TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
ATLANTIC.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AGAIN WITH A
SHARPENING TROUGH OVER THE EAST...WHICH HELPS TO KICK OUT A WEAK LOW
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE BULK OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AGAIN RESIDES OVER THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS. KEPT CHANCE POPS COAST...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE INLAND. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE PERIPHERY OF INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
UPSTREAM. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT THEN
STEADILY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ORIGINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE THUS
CAPPED RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...BEFORE A NOTABLE COOLING TREND
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE KSAV TERMINAL WILL IMPACT THE
AIRPORT WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AND -TSRA THROUGH
02Z..,WHILE KCHS LOOKS FREE AND CLEAR OF ANY ADDITIONAL SHRA
AND/OR TSRA TONIGHT. BOTH SITES HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT
STRATUS AND/OR FOG...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TO OCCUR FROM
AROUND 09-13Z. WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THURSDAY WILL BE
VFR...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND LATER TAF
ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO ADDRESS THE CONCERN FOR IMPACTS ON BOTH OF
EITHER TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A BRIEF SURGE OF WINDS HAS BEEN NOTED
WITH A BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTH OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS DESPITE ENHANCED SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE ONSHORE AND THEN REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-3 FT NEARSHORE TO 3-4 FT BEYOND 20
NM FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM. LATEST GUIDANCE
INCREASES WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20
KTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET SATURDAY...THEN WEAKEN AGAIN BY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS...1-2 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT AN
ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB/RFM
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB/RFM







000
FXUS62 KCAE 172310
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
710 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON TO RAISE POPS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
AS CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AIDED
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE PROVIDED THE FUEL FOR STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH SOME REPORTS OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND TREES
DOWNED. STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST
AND EXPECT A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER LATER TONIGHT WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.  LOW CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
WITH A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST GA ON FRIDAY. H5
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS LOW AS MINUS 11C. WEAK INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
FARTHER SOUTH BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. ALL MODELS FORECAST THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO RIDGE INTO OUR AREA BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SEVERAL HARD TO TIME
WEAK SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE ARE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LACK OF OMEGA...WILL NOT FOLLOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WEAK CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES SATURDAY WITH A WITH CUTOFF LOW OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EJECTING THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE POPS SHOWN BY THE GFS
ENSEMBLES...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY, ALSO.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP MENTION OF TSRA
AT AGS AND DNL UNTIL AROUND 01Z. SOME CONVECTION MAY THREATEN OGB
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT WILL AMEND TAF AS NECESSARY.
EXPECT CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS WILL PROVIDE THREAT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW CIGS THE MAIN THREAT...WITH
SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS. A SLOW RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 172310
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
710 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON TO RAISE POPS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
AS CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AIDED
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE PROVIDED THE FUEL FOR STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH SOME REPORTS OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND TREES
DOWNED. STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST
AND EXPECT A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER LATER TONIGHT WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.  LOW CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
WITH A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST GA ON FRIDAY. H5
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS LOW AS MINUS 11C. WEAK INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
FARTHER SOUTH BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. ALL MODELS FORECAST THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO RIDGE INTO OUR AREA BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SEVERAL HARD TO TIME
WEAK SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE ARE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LACK OF OMEGA...WILL NOT FOLLOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WEAK CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES SATURDAY WITH A WITH CUTOFF LOW OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EJECTING THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE POPS SHOWN BY THE GFS
ENSEMBLES...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY, ALSO.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP MENTION OF TSRA
AT AGS AND DNL UNTIL AROUND 01Z. SOME CONVECTION MAY THREATEN OGB
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT WILL AMEND TAF AS NECESSARY.
EXPECT CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS WILL PROVIDE THREAT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW CIGS THE MAIN THREAT...WITH
SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS. A SLOW RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 172159
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
559 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND COLLETON COUNTIES...
WHERE LOCALIZE HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING...CANNOT RULE OUT THROUGH SUNSET.

ONCE PRECIP ACTIVITY DIMINISHES EARLY TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL THEN SWITCH OVER TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG LATE. BEST CHANCES
OF FOG WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH A
LARGE PART OF THE NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG OVER ALL AREAS
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN STARTS THE PERIOD WITH A
BROAD...FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST U.S. AND RIDGE OVER
THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GT. LAKES...WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FORM A WEDGE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THIS WILL PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL ENE FLOW. ALL MODELS SHOW ONLY MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE LAND AREA...BUT WITH SOME WEAK OVER-RUNNING WITH THE
WEDGE...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTERN 1/3 OF LAND AND INTO MARINE
AREA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH...UPPER 80S SOUTH.  BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THINK ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO ATLANTIC WATERS
AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE SOME COASTAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OCCURS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COAST...AND
CHANCE OUT INTO ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED...WITH THE
MAIN JET CONFINED OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. HOWEVER...AT THE
SURFACE...A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE...STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND...SOUTHWARD TO GEORGIA.
EAST-NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER...IN THE LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...THINK BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS AS A WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE LAND
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRIES TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
ATLANTIC.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AGAIN WITH A
SHARPENING TROUGH OVER THE EAST...WHICH HELPS TO KICK OUT A WEAK LOW
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE BULK OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AGAIN RESIDES OVER THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS. KEPT CHANCE POPS COAST...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE INLAND. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE PERIPHERY OF INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
UPSTREAM. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT THEN
STEADILY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ORIGINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE THUS
CAPPED RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...BEFORE A NOTABLE COOLING TREND
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE AT
EITHER TERMINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS DEVELOP LATE. HAVE INTRODUCED PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z-13Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE
TO VFR AT BOTH TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER 13Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY...BUT MAINLY A DRY FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A BRIEF SURGE OF WINDS HAS BEEN NOTED
WITH A BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTH OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS DESPITE ENHANCED SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE ONSHORE AND THEN REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-3 FT NEARSHORE TO 3-4 FT BEYOND 20
NM FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM. LATEST GUIDANCE
INCREASES WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20
KTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET SATURDAY...THEN WEAKEN AGAIN BY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS...1-2 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT AN
ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB/RFM
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/RFM
MARINE...DPB/RFM






000
FXUS62 KCHS 172159
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
559 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND COLLETON COUNTIES...
WHERE LOCALIZE HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING...CANNOT RULE OUT THROUGH SUNSET.

ONCE PRECIP ACTIVITY DIMINISHES EARLY TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL THEN SWITCH OVER TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG LATE. BEST CHANCES
OF FOG WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH A
LARGE PART OF THE NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG OVER ALL AREAS
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN STARTS THE PERIOD WITH A
BROAD...FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST U.S. AND RIDGE OVER
THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GT. LAKES...WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FORM A WEDGE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THIS WILL PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL ENE FLOW. ALL MODELS SHOW ONLY MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE LAND AREA...BUT WITH SOME WEAK OVER-RUNNING WITH THE
WEDGE...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTERN 1/3 OF LAND AND INTO MARINE
AREA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH...UPPER 80S SOUTH.  BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THINK ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO ATLANTIC WATERS
AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE SOME COASTAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OCCURS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COAST...AND
CHANCE OUT INTO ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED...WITH THE
MAIN JET CONFINED OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. HOWEVER...AT THE
SURFACE...A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE...STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND...SOUTHWARD TO GEORGIA.
EAST-NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER...IN THE LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...THINK BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS AS A WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE LAND
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRIES TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
ATLANTIC.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AGAIN WITH A
SHARPENING TROUGH OVER THE EAST...WHICH HELPS TO KICK OUT A WEAK LOW
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE BULK OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AGAIN RESIDES OVER THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS. KEPT CHANCE POPS COAST...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE INLAND. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE PERIPHERY OF INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
UPSTREAM. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT THEN
STEADILY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ORIGINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE THUS
CAPPED RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...BEFORE A NOTABLE COOLING TREND
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE AT
EITHER TERMINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS DEVELOP LATE. HAVE INTRODUCED PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z-13Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE
TO VFR AT BOTH TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER 13Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY...BUT MAINLY A DRY FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A BRIEF SURGE OF WINDS HAS BEEN NOTED
WITH A BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTH OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS DESPITE ENHANCED SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE ONSHORE AND THEN REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-3 FT NEARSHORE TO 3-4 FT BEYOND 20
NM FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM. LATEST GUIDANCE
INCREASES WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20
KTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET SATURDAY...THEN WEAKEN AGAIN BY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS...1-2 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT AN
ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB/RFM
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/RFM
MARINE...DPB/RFM







000
FXUS62 KCAE 172132 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
532 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON TO RAISE POPS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
AS CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AIDED
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE PROVIDED THE FUEL FOR STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH SOME REPORTS OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND TREES
DOWNED. STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST
AND EXPECT A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER LATER TONIGHT WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.  LOW CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
WITH A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST GA ON FRIDAY. H5
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS LOW AS MINUS 11C. WEAK INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
FARTHER SOUTH BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. ALL MODELS FORECAST THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO RIDGE INTO OUR AREA BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SEVERAL HARD TO TIME
WEAK SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE ARE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LACK OF OMEGA...WILL NOT FOLLOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WEAK CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES SATURDAY WITH A WITH CUTOFF LOW OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EJECTING THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE POPS SHOWN BY THE GFS
ENSEMBLES...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY, ALSO.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AFFECTING OGB SO HAVE AMENDED TAF ACCORDINGLY. SOME SHOWERS MAY
AFFECT AGS AND DNL AS WELL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TO DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL
PROVIDE THREAT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW CIGS THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SOME
VSBY RESTRICTIONS. A SLOW RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 172132 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
532 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON TO RAISE POPS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
AS CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AIDED
BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE PROVIDED THE FUEL FOR STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH SOME REPORTS OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND TREES
DOWNED. STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST
AND EXPECT A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT FAIR
WEATHER LATER TONIGHT WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.  LOW CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
WITH A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST GA ON FRIDAY. H5
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS LOW AS MINUS 11C. WEAK INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
FARTHER SOUTH BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. ALL MODELS FORECAST THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO RIDGE INTO OUR AREA BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SEVERAL HARD TO TIME
WEAK SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE ARE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LACK OF OMEGA...WILL NOT FOLLOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WEAK CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES SATURDAY WITH A WITH CUTOFF LOW OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EJECTING THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE POPS SHOWN BY THE GFS
ENSEMBLES...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY, ALSO.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AFFECTING OGB SO HAVE AMENDED TAF ACCORDINGLY. SOME SHOWERS MAY
AFFECT AGS AND DNL AS WELL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TO DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL
PROVIDE THREAT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW CIGS THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SOME
VSBY RESTRICTIONS. A SLOW RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCHS 172033
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
433 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
SLIDE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS EVENING...SPAWNING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA AS SUBTLE H5 SHORTWAVES ROUND ITS
BASE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG AND/OR PERHAPS SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...DUE TO 500 MB TEMPS NEAR
-10 C...BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30-35 KT AND MLCAPE BETWEEN 2000-2500
J/KG. ALSO OF CONCERN IS HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE ACTIVITY IS SLOW TO
MOVE...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST ALONG A SEABREEZE. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE
MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR ALL LOCATIONS UNTIL SUNSET. PRECIP
ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHING TO OUR SOUTH.

ONCE PRECIP ACTIVITY DIMINISHES EARLY TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL THEN SWITCH OVER TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG LATE. BEST CHANCES
OF FOG WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH A
LARGE PART OF THE NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG OVER ALL AREAS
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN STARTS THE PERIOD WITH A
BROAD...FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST U.S. AND RIDGE OVER
THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GT. LAKES...WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FORM A WEDGE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THIS WILL PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL ENE FLOW. ALL MODELS SHOW ONLY MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE LAND AREA...BUT WITH SOME WEAK OVER-RUNNING WITH THE
WEDGE...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTERN 1/3 OF LAND AND INTO MARINE
AREA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH...UPPER 80S SOUTH.  BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THINK ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO ATLANTIC WATERS
AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE SOME COASTAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OCCURS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COAST...AND
CHANCE OUT INTO ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED...WITH THE
MAIN JET CONFINED OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. HOWEVER...AT THE
SURFACE...A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE...STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND...SOUTHWARD TO GEORGIA.
EAST-NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER...IN THE LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...THINK BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS AS A WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE LAND
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRIES TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
ATLANTIC.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AGAIN WITH A
SHARPENING TROUGH OVER THE EAST...WHICH HELPS TO KICK OUT A WEAK LOW
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE BULK OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AGAIN RESIDES OVER THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS. KEPT CHANCE POPS COAST...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE INLAND. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE PERIPHERY OF INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
UPSTREAM. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT THEN
STEADILY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ORIGINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE THUS
CAPPED RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...BEFORE A NOTABLE COOLING TREND
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE AT
EITHER TERMINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS DEVELOP LATE. HAVE INTRODUCED PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z-13Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE
TO VFR AT BOTH TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER 13Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY...BUT MAINLY A DRY FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A BRIEF SURGE OF WINDS HAS BEEN NOTED
WITH A BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTH OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS DESPITE ENHANCED SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE ONSHORE AND THEN REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-3 FT NEARSHORE TO 3-4 FT BEYOND 20
NM FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM. LATEST GUIDANCE
INCREASES WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20
KTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET SATURDAY...THEN WEAKEN AGAIN BY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS...1-2 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT AN
ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/RFM
MARINE...DPB/RFM






000
FXUS62 KCHS 172033
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
433 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
SLIDE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS EVENING...SPAWNING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA AS SUBTLE H5 SHORTWAVES ROUND ITS
BASE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG AND/OR PERHAPS SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...DUE TO 500 MB TEMPS NEAR
-10 C...BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30-35 KT AND MLCAPE BETWEEN 2000-2500
J/KG. ALSO OF CONCERN IS HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE ACTIVITY IS SLOW TO
MOVE...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST ALONG A SEABREEZE. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE
MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR ALL LOCATIONS UNTIL SUNSET. PRECIP
ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHING TO OUR SOUTH.

ONCE PRECIP ACTIVITY DIMINISHES EARLY TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL THEN SWITCH OVER TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG LATE. BEST CHANCES
OF FOG WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE RAINFALL
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH A
LARGE PART OF THE NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG OVER ALL AREAS
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN STARTS THE PERIOD WITH A
BROAD...FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST U.S. AND RIDGE OVER
THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GT. LAKES...WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FORM A WEDGE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THIS WILL PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL ENE FLOW. ALL MODELS SHOW ONLY MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE LAND AREA...BUT WITH SOME WEAK OVER-RUNNING WITH THE
WEDGE...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTERN 1/3 OF LAND AND INTO MARINE
AREA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH...UPPER 80S SOUTH.  BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...THINK ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO ATLANTIC WATERS
AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE SOME COASTAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OCCURS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE COAST...AND
CHANCE OUT INTO ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED...WITH THE
MAIN JET CONFINED OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. HOWEVER...AT THE
SURFACE...A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE...STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND...SOUTHWARD TO GEORGIA.
EAST-NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER...IN THE LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...THINK BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS AS A WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE LAND
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRIES TO DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
ATLANTIC.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AGAIN WITH A
SHARPENING TROUGH OVER THE EAST...WHICH HELPS TO KICK OUT A WEAK LOW
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE BULK OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AGAIN RESIDES OVER THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS. KEPT CHANCE POPS COAST...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE INLAND. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE PERIPHERY OF INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
UPSTREAM. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT THEN
STEADILY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ORIGINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE THUS
CAPPED RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...BEFORE A NOTABLE COOLING TREND
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE AT
EITHER TERMINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS DEVELOP LATE. HAVE INTRODUCED PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z-13Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE
TO VFR AT BOTH TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER 13Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EACH DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY...BUT MAINLY A DRY FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A BRIEF SURGE OF WINDS HAS BEEN NOTED
WITH A BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTH OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS DESPITE ENHANCED SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE ONSHORE AND THEN REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-3 FT NEARSHORE TO 3-4 FT BEYOND 20
NM FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM. LATEST GUIDANCE
INCREASES WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20
KTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET SATURDAY...THEN WEAKEN AGAIN BY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS...1-2 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT AN
ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/RFM
MARINE...DPB/RFM







000
FXUS62 KFFC 171940
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
340 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER CANADA AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA AND HAVE
CONTINUED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  MODELS SHOW AN MCS OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FOR INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW.
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE...BUT THINK WE WILL SEE
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW.  GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND.

ATWELL


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS MORE
CONSISTENT WITH INDICATING EASTERLY FLOW EVENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS SLIGHTLY
/TO SLIGHT CHANCE/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
CWA. ASIDE FROM THAT...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

31

/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION AND NO PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE STATE
WILL KEEP GEORGIA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH GA MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STAYING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO NORTH GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE
DECIDED TO ONLY GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING THE PRECIP SOUTHWARD
MONDAY/TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOLER TEMPS IN
STORE FOR THE STATE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COOLER DRIER AIR MASS
MOVING IN. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS 5-10KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z...AND WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 6KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR NORTHEAST WINDS TOMORROW...HAVE A
SHIFT IN AT 15Z FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO MONITOR TIMING. NO WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  83  63  80 /   5  10  10  10
ATLANTA         64  84  65  81 /   5   5  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  79  56  76 /  10  10   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    58  85  60  83 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        65  88  66  87 /   5   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     64  82  63  78 /  10  10  10  10
MACON           63  87  63  86 /   5   5   5  20
ROME            58  86  59  84 /   5   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  58  85  61  83 /   5   5   5  10
VIDALIA         67  85  69  86 /  20  10  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...ATWELL






000
FXUS62 KCAE 171816
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
216 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL PUSH TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF IMPULSES EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA)...WITH A
POSSIBLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA/CSRA. WEAK IN SITU
WEDGE/PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS STILL AFFECTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FA. THESE BOUNDARIES IN ADDITION TO A POSSIBLE SEA
BREEZE COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION...FAVORING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE BEST HEATING
AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING MIXED
RESULTS WITH RESPECT TO PLACEMENT AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION...BUT
THINK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH TO CHANCE POPS CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARE
IN ORDER. DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COULD PROVIDE A
THREAT OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG
WIND GUST. ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE
EVENING...THEN FAIR WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
WITH A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST GA ON FRIDAY. H5
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS LOW AS MINUS 11C. WEAK INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
FARTHER SOUTH BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. ALL MODELS FORECAST THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO RIDGE INTO OUR AREA BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SEVERAL HARD TO TIME
WEAK SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE ARE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LACK OF OMEGA...WILL NOT FOLLOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WEAK CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES SATURDAY WITH A WITH CUTOFF LOW OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EJECTING THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE POPS SHOWN BY THE GFS
ENSEMBLES...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY, ALSO.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS REMAINS
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA (FA). IT APPEARS MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS IN THE NEAR TERM...GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR
BY MID AFTERNOON. SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CHANCES NOT SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT INCLUSION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL INCLUDE IN LATER ISSUANCES IF/WHEN
CONFIDENCE WARRANTS. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT
AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL PROVIDE THREAT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW CIGS
THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS. A SLOW RETURN TO VFR
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 171816
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
216 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL PUSH TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF IMPULSES EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA)...WITH A
POSSIBLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA/CSRA. WEAK IN SITU
WEDGE/PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS STILL AFFECTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FA. THESE BOUNDARIES IN ADDITION TO A POSSIBLE SEA
BREEZE COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION...FAVORING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE BEST HEATING
AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING MIXED
RESULTS WITH RESPECT TO PLACEMENT AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION...BUT
THINK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH TO CHANCE POPS CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARE
IN ORDER. DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COULD PROVIDE A
THREAT OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG
WIND GUST. ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE
EVENING...THEN FAIR WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
WITH A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST GA ON FRIDAY. H5
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS LOW AS MINUS 11C. WEAK INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
FARTHER SOUTH BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. ALL MODELS FORECAST THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO RIDGE INTO OUR AREA BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SEVERAL HARD TO TIME
WEAK SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE ARE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND LACK OF OMEGA...WILL NOT FOLLOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WEAK CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES SATURDAY WITH A WITH CUTOFF LOW OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EJECTING THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE POPS SHOWN BY THE GFS
ENSEMBLES...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY, ALSO.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS REMAINS
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA (FA). IT APPEARS MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS IN THE NEAR TERM...GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR
BY MID AFTERNOON. SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CHANCES NOT SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT INCLUSION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL INCLUDE IN LATER ISSUANCES IF/WHEN
CONFIDENCE WARRANTS. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT
AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL PROVIDE THREAT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW CIGS
THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS. A SLOW RETURN TO VFR
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 171810
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
210 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEPICTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...SPAWNING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN
EAST-WEST EXTENDING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT
AREAS TO REMAIN MAINLY DRY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT
AT THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
MID LVL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. HAVE THEREFORE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA...HIGHEST ALONG ANY SEABREEZE THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET AS DRYER
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES ALONG WITH A WEAK DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SFC SUPPORTS OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...LATER SHIFTS CAN TAKE A HARDER LOOK AT LATE NIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE THERE NEARING DAWN ON THU.
POPS SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER IN THE EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
MOST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH...IN THE MID
60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY PROGRESS OFFSHORE AND
EVENTUALLY PULL NORTH/NORTHEAST...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FEATURE AND LIFTS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND
CAROLINAS BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...INTRODUCING A NOTABLY DRIER
AIR MASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY
REGION AND SC/GA COASTAL COUNTIES...WHERE SEABREEZE AND COASTAL
CONVERGENCE COULD PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR WEAK CONVECTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT A COOLING TREND...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NOTABLY COOLER...FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT. BEST
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD MOVE INTO THE
COASTLINE WITHIN ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
MOVES OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFF THE
NORTHERN COASTLINE SATURDAY...AN INLAND WEDGE WILL AMPLIFY DOWN
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE A WEAK
UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT THE
ENERGY WITHIN THIS FEATURE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-
DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL
MAINLY BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE MARINE
ZONES...CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HAVE THUS INDICATED A DISTINCT WEST-EAST GRADIENT IN RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES LESS THAN 25
PERCENT ACROSS INLAND ZONES THAT INCREASE TO SOLID CHANCES IN THE
30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR COASTAL COUNTIES...HIGHEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON PERIODS. COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...RISING ONLY INTO THE LOWER 80S EACH DAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TREND EVEN COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY WARMER
COASTLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE PERIPHERY OF INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
UPSTREAM. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT THEN
STEADILY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ORIGINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE THUS
CAPPED RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...BEFORE A NOTABLE COOLING TREND
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE AT
EITHER TERMINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS DEVELOP LATE. HAVE INTRODUCED PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z-13Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE
TO VFR AT BOTH TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER 13Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A BRIEF SURGE OF WINDS HAS BEEN NOTED
WITH A BOUNDARY SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS TO 10-15 KTS OVER THE NORTHERN SC WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DESPITE ENHANCED
SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTH. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE AND
THEN REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2-3 FT NEARSHORE TO 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BEGIN TO SURGE BY FRIDAY...AS A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH AMPLIFIES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE SEAS
BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT. LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS AS THE
INLAND WEDGE WEAKENS BY SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...1-2 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...AND
POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB/WMS







000
FXUS62 KCHS 171810
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
210 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEPICTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...SPAWNING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN
EAST-WEST EXTENDING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT
AREAS TO REMAIN MAINLY DRY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT
AT THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE
MID LVL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. HAVE THEREFORE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA...HIGHEST ALONG ANY SEABREEZE THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET AS DRYER
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES ALONG WITH A WEAK DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SFC SUPPORTS OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...LATER SHIFTS CAN TAKE A HARDER LOOK AT LATE NIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE THERE NEARING DAWN ON THU.
POPS SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER IN THE EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
MOST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH...IN THE MID
60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY PROGRESS OFFSHORE AND
EVENTUALLY PULL NORTH/NORTHEAST...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FEATURE AND LIFTS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND
CAROLINAS BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...INTRODUCING A NOTABLY DRIER
AIR MASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY
REGION AND SC/GA COASTAL COUNTIES...WHERE SEABREEZE AND COASTAL
CONVERGENCE COULD PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR WEAK CONVECTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT A COOLING TREND...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NOTABLY COOLER...FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT. BEST
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD MOVE INTO THE
COASTLINE WITHIN ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
MOVES OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFF THE
NORTHERN COASTLINE SATURDAY...AN INLAND WEDGE WILL AMPLIFY DOWN
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE A WEAK
UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT THE
ENERGY WITHIN THIS FEATURE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-
DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL
MAINLY BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE MARINE
ZONES...CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HAVE THUS INDICATED A DISTINCT WEST-EAST GRADIENT IN RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES LESS THAN 25
PERCENT ACROSS INLAND ZONES THAT INCREASE TO SOLID CHANCES IN THE
30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR COASTAL COUNTIES...HIGHEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON PERIODS. COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...RISING ONLY INTO THE LOWER 80S EACH DAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TREND EVEN COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY WARMER
COASTLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE PERIPHERY OF INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
UPSTREAM. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT THEN
STEADILY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ORIGINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE THUS
CAPPED RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...BEFORE A NOTABLE COOLING TREND
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE AT
EITHER TERMINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS DEVELOP LATE. HAVE INTRODUCED PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z-13Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE
TO VFR AT BOTH TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER 13Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A BRIEF SURGE OF WINDS HAS BEEN NOTED
WITH A BOUNDARY SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS TO 10-15 KTS OVER THE NORTHERN SC WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DESPITE ENHANCED
SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTH. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE AND
THEN REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2-3 FT NEARSHORE TO 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BEGIN TO SURGE BY FRIDAY...AS A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH AMPLIFIES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE SEAS
BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT. LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS AS THE
INLAND WEDGE WEAKENS BY SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...1-2 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...AND
POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB/WMS






000
FXUS62 KFFC 171757
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
157 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST THIS MORNING BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS.
HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM CENTRAL GA AS DRIER AIR IS INFILTRATING
AREA. RAISED TEMPERATURES IN ATL-AHN CORRIDOR AS CLEAR SKIES HAVE
ALLOWED SOME MORE HEATING THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS IN
THE ARE THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT NEAR A
LA GRANGE TO MILLEDGEVILLE LINE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A FEW SMALL
SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY POPPING UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT... AND
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. THE
FRONT IS PROGGD TO SAG SOUTH TODAY AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER NORTH MS TRAVERSES THE STATE AND PROVIDES THE NEEDED PUSH.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BY MID TO
LATE MORNING... THEN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL WARRANT SHOWING
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA TODAY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL/DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... BRINGING A RAIN
FREE FORECAST TO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN SPREADING IN OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND
THE SAGGING FRONT... RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ACROSS NORTH GA
TODAY... THEN ACROSS BOTH NORTH AND CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.
A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

39

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION AND NO PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE STATE
WILL KEEP GEORGIA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH GA MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STAYING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO NORTH GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE
DECIDED TO ONLY GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING THE PRECIP SOUTHWARD
MONDAY/TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOLER TEMPS IN
STORE FOR THE STATE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COOLER DRIER AIR MASS
MOVING IN. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS 5-10KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z...AND WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 6KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR NORTHEAST WINDS TOMORROW...HAVE A
SHIFT IN AT 15Z FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO MONITOR TIMING. NO WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          86  61  82  61 /  10  10  10  10
ATLANTA         86  63  84  65 /  10   0   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     79  56  79  55 /  10  10   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    84  57  84  60 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        90  63  87  66 /  10   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     84  62  82  62 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           90  62  86  63 /  10   5   5  10
ROME            84  57  86  59 /   5   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  87  56  84  61 /  10   0   5  10
VIDALIA         90  67  85  67 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...ATWELL





000
FXUS62 KFFC 171757
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
157 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST THIS MORNING BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS.
HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM CENTRAL GA AS DRIER AIR IS INFILTRATING
AREA. RAISED TEMPERATURES IN ATL-AHN CORRIDOR AS CLEAR SKIES HAVE
ALLOWED SOME MORE HEATING THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS IN
THE ARE THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT NEAR A
LA GRANGE TO MILLEDGEVILLE LINE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A FEW SMALL
SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY POPPING UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT... AND
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. THE
FRONT IS PROGGD TO SAG SOUTH TODAY AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER NORTH MS TRAVERSES THE STATE AND PROVIDES THE NEEDED PUSH.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BY MID TO
LATE MORNING... THEN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL WARRANT SHOWING
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA TODAY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL/DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... BRINGING A RAIN
FREE FORECAST TO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN SPREADING IN OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND
THE SAGGING FRONT... RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ACROSS NORTH GA
TODAY... THEN ACROSS BOTH NORTH AND CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.
A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

39

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION AND NO PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE STATE
WILL KEEP GEORGIA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH GA MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STAYING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO NORTH GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE
DECIDED TO ONLY GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING THE PRECIP SOUTHWARD
MONDAY/TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOLER TEMPS IN
STORE FOR THE STATE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COOLER DRIER AIR MASS
MOVING IN. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS 5-10KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z...AND WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 6KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR NORTHEAST WINDS TOMORROW...HAVE A
SHIFT IN AT 15Z FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO MONITOR TIMING. NO WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          86  61  82  61 /  10  10  10  10
ATLANTA         86  63  84  65 /  10   0   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     79  56  79  55 /  10  10   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    84  57  84  60 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        90  63  87  66 /  10   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     84  62  82  62 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           90  62  86  63 /  10   5   5  10
ROME            84  57  86  59 /   5   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  87  56  84  61 /  10   0   5  10
VIDALIA         90  67  85  67 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...ATWELL






000
FXUS62 KCAE 171714
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
114 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL PUSH TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF IMPULSES EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA)...WITH A
POSSIBLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA/CSRA. WEAK IN SITU
WEDGE/PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS STILL AFFECTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FA. THESE BOUNDARIES IN ADDITION TO A POSSIBLE SEA
BREEZE COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION...FAVORING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE BEST HEATING
AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING MIXED
RESULTS WITH RESPECT TO PLACEMENT AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION...BUT
THINK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH TO CHANCE POPS CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARE
IN ORDER. DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COULD PROVIDE A
THREAT OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG
WIND GUST. ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE
EVENING...THEN FAIR WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL
KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S
THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. WEDGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EJECTING THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS REMAINS
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA (FA). IT APPEARS MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS IN THE NEAR TERM...GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR
BY MID AFTERNOON. SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CHANCES NOT SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT INCLUSION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL INCLUDE IN LATER ISSUANCES IF/WHEN
CONFIDENCE WARRANTS. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT
AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL PROVIDE THREAT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW CIGS
THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS. A SLOW RETURN TO VFR
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 171714
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
114 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL PUSH TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF IMPULSES EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA)...WITH A
POSSIBLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA/CSRA. WEAK IN SITU
WEDGE/PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS STILL AFFECTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FA. THESE BOUNDARIES IN ADDITION TO A POSSIBLE SEA
BREEZE COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION...FAVORING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE BEST HEATING
AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING MIXED
RESULTS WITH RESPECT TO PLACEMENT AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION...BUT
THINK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH TO CHANCE POPS CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARE
IN ORDER. DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COULD PROVIDE A
THREAT OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG
WIND GUST. ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE
EVENING...THEN FAIR WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL
KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S
THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. WEDGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EJECTING THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS REMAINS
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA (FA). IT APPEARS MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS IN THE NEAR TERM...GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR
BY MID AFTERNOON. SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CHANCES NOT SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT INCLUSION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL INCLUDE IN LATER ISSUANCES IF/WHEN
CONFIDENCE WARRANTS. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT
AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL PROVIDE THREAT OF FOG/STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW CIGS
THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS. A SLOW RETURN TO VFR
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 171551
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1151 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST THIS MORNING BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS.
HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM CENTRAL GA AS DRIER AIR IS INFILTRATING
AREA. RAISED TEMPERATURES IN ATL-AHN CORRIDOR AS CLEAR SKIES HAVE
ALLOWED SOME MORE HEATING THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS IN
THE ARE THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT NEAR A
LA GRANGE TO MILLEDGEVILLE LINE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A FEW SMALL
SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY POPPING UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT... AND
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. THE
FRONT IS PROGGD TO SAG SOUTH TODAY AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER NORTH MS TRAVERSES THE STATE AND PROVIDES THE NEEDED PUSH.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BY MID TO
LATE MORNING... THEN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL WARRANT SHOWING
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA TODAY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL/DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... BRINGING A RAIN
FREE FORECAST TO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN SPREADING IN OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND
THE SAGGING FRONT... RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ACROSS NORTH GA
TODAY... THEN ACROSS BOTH NORTH AND CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.
A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

39

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION AND NO PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE STATE
WILL KEEP GEORGIA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH GA MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STAYING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO NORTH GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE
DECIDED TO ONLY GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING THE PRECIP SOUTHWARD
MONDAY/TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOLER TEMPS IN
STORE FOR THE STATE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COOLER DRIER AIR MASS
MOVING IN. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

01

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT NEAR A CSG TO MCN LINE IS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD DUE TO AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE DISTURBANCE COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...
BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS. OTHERWISE... SOME
MVFR LEVEL SCT CLOUDS MAY PUSH ACROSS ATL THIS MORNING WITH THE
DISTURBANCE... THEN EXPECT MAINLY MID LEVEL SCT CLOUDS DURING
AFTERNOON HEATING TODAY... ONLY FEW AMOUNT ON THU. EXPECT A NW WIND
AROUND 8-10KTS TODAY... 3-5 KTS TONIGHT... THEN 6-8KTS ON THU WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY SWINGING AROUND NE THU AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  61  82  61 /  10  10  10  10
ATLANTA         84  63  84  65 /  10   0   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  56  79  55 /  10  10   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    83  57  84  60 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        90  63  87  66 /  10   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     83  62  82  62 /  10   5   5  10
MACON           90  62  86  63 /  10   5   5  10
ROME            84  57  86  59 /   5   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  85  56  84  61 /  10   0   5  10
VIDALIA         88  67  85  67 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...ATWELL






000
FXUS62 KFFC 171551
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1151 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST THIS MORNING BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS.
HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM CENTRAL GA AS DRIER AIR IS INFILTRATING
AREA. RAISED TEMPERATURES IN ATL-AHN CORRIDOR AS CLEAR SKIES HAVE
ALLOWED SOME MORE HEATING THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS IN
THE ARE THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT NEAR A
LA GRANGE TO MILLEDGEVILLE LINE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A FEW SMALL
SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY POPPING UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT... AND
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. THE
FRONT IS PROGGD TO SAG SOUTH TODAY AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER NORTH MS TRAVERSES THE STATE AND PROVIDES THE NEEDED PUSH.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BY MID TO
LATE MORNING... THEN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL WARRANT SHOWING
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA TODAY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL/DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... BRINGING A RAIN
FREE FORECAST TO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN SPREADING IN OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND
THE SAGGING FRONT... RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ACROSS NORTH GA
TODAY... THEN ACROSS BOTH NORTH AND CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.
A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

39

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION AND NO PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE STATE
WILL KEEP GEORGIA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH GA MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STAYING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO NORTH GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE
DECIDED TO ONLY GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING THE PRECIP SOUTHWARD
MONDAY/TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOLER TEMPS IN
STORE FOR THE STATE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COOLER DRIER AIR MASS
MOVING IN. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

01

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT NEAR A CSG TO MCN LINE IS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD DUE TO AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE DISTURBANCE COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...
BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS. OTHERWISE... SOME
MVFR LEVEL SCT CLOUDS MAY PUSH ACROSS ATL THIS MORNING WITH THE
DISTURBANCE... THEN EXPECT MAINLY MID LEVEL SCT CLOUDS DURING
AFTERNOON HEATING TODAY... ONLY FEW AMOUNT ON THU. EXPECT A NW WIND
AROUND 8-10KTS TODAY... 3-5 KTS TONIGHT... THEN 6-8KTS ON THU WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY SWINGING AROUND NE THU AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  61  82  61 /  10  10  10  10
ATLANTA         84  63  84  65 /  10   0   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  56  79  55 /  10  10   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    83  57  84  60 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        90  63  87  66 /  10   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     83  62  82  62 /  10   5   5  10
MACON           90  62  86  63 /  10   5   5  10
ROME            84  57  86  59 /   5   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  85  56  84  61 /  10   0   5  10
VIDALIA         88  67  85  67 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...ATWELL





000
FXUS62 KCHS 171510
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1110 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...A BROAD MID LVL THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEPICTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...SPAWNING A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST-WEST EXTENDING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST. EXPECT AREAS TO REMAIN DRY LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SFC FRONT SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE LESS THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF A
FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A SERIES OF
H5 SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE MID LVL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA...HIGHEST ALONG ANY SEABREEZE
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH NEAR
SUNSET AS DRYER SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH.

LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES ALONG WITH A WEAK DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SFC SUPPORTS OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TONIGHT...LATER SHIFTS CAN TAKE A HARDER LOOK AT LATE NIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE THERE NEARING DAWN ON THU.
POPS SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER IN THE EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
MOST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH...IN THE MID
60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY PROGRESS OFFSHORE AND
EVENTUALLY PULL NORTH/NORTHEAST...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FEATURE AND LIFTS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND
CAROLINAS BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...INTRODUCING A NOTABLY DRIER
AIR MASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY
REGION AND SC/GA COASTAL COUNTIES...WHERE SEABREEZE AND COASTAL
CONVERGENCE COULD PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR WEAK CONVECTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT A COOLING TREND...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NOTABLY COOLER...FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT. BEST
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD MOVE INTO THE
COASTLINE WITHIN ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
MOVES OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFF THE
NORTHERN COASTLINE SATURDAY...AN INLAND WEDGE WILL AMPLIFY DOWN
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE A WEAK
UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT THE
ENERGY WITHIN THIS FEATURE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-
DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL
MAINLY BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE MARINE
ZONES...CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HAVE THUS INDICATED A DISTINCT WEST-EAST GRADIENT IN RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES LESS THAN 25
PERCENT ACROSS INLAND ZONES THAT INCREASE TO SOLID CHANCES IN THE
30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR COASTAL COUNTIES...HIGHEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON PERIODS. COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...RISING ONLY INTO THE LOWER 80S EACH DAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TREND EVEN COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY WARMER
COASTLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE PERIPHERY OF INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
UPSTREAM. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT THEN
STEADILY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ORIGINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE THUS
CAPPED RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...BEFORE A NOTABLE COOLING TREND
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ARRIVAL OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS DISRUPTED STRATUS FORMATION
AND DIMINISHED THE RISK FOR IFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS. A BAND OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS TO THE NORTH OF KSAV ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL FRONT
COULD MAKE FOR LOW CIGS THERE FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING. AT
KCHS...STRATUS IS GENERALLY SCATTERED AND THERE COULD BE PATCHES OF
BROKEN IFR CIGS UNTIL MID MORNING BUT LOOKING UNLIKELY.

VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE RAINS. TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS BUT TIMING/COVERAGE WINDOWS ARE
MOST UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

THE NEXT ITEM TO WATCH OUT FOR IS A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING. NO INTRODUCTIONS JUST YET BUT
THE RISK FOR IFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL BE INVESTIGATED ON LATER CYCLES
TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DESPITE ENHANCED SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
EDOUARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH. IN GENERAL...LIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE BUT REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-3 FT NEARSHORE TO 3-4 FT BEYOND 20
NM FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BEGIN TO SURGE BY FRIDAY...AS A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH AMPLIFIES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE SEAS
BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT. LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS AS THE
INLAND WEDGE WEAKENS BY SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...1-2 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...AND
POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB/WMS







000
FXUS62 KCHS 171510
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1110 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...A BROAD MID LVL THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEPICTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...SPAWNING A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST-WEST EXTENDING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST. EXPECT AREAS TO REMAIN DRY LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SFC FRONT SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE LESS THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF A
FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A SERIES OF
H5 SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE MID LVL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA...HIGHEST ALONG ANY SEABREEZE
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH NEAR
SUNSET AS DRYER SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH.

LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES ALONG WITH A WEAK DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SFC SUPPORTS OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TONIGHT...LATER SHIFTS CAN TAKE A HARDER LOOK AT LATE NIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE THERE NEARING DAWN ON THU.
POPS SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER IN THE EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
MOST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH...IN THE MID
60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY PROGRESS OFFSHORE AND
EVENTUALLY PULL NORTH/NORTHEAST...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FEATURE AND LIFTS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND
CAROLINAS BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...INTRODUCING A NOTABLY DRIER
AIR MASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY
REGION AND SC/GA COASTAL COUNTIES...WHERE SEABREEZE AND COASTAL
CONVERGENCE COULD PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR WEAK CONVECTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT A COOLING TREND...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NOTABLY COOLER...FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT. BEST
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD MOVE INTO THE
COASTLINE WITHIN ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
MOVES OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFF THE
NORTHERN COASTLINE SATURDAY...AN INLAND WEDGE WILL AMPLIFY DOWN
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE A WEAK
UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT THE
ENERGY WITHIN THIS FEATURE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-
DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL
MAINLY BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE MARINE
ZONES...CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HAVE THUS INDICATED A DISTINCT WEST-EAST GRADIENT IN RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES LESS THAN 25
PERCENT ACROSS INLAND ZONES THAT INCREASE TO SOLID CHANCES IN THE
30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR COASTAL COUNTIES...HIGHEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON PERIODS. COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...RISING ONLY INTO THE LOWER 80S EACH DAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TREND EVEN COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY WARMER
COASTLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE PERIPHERY OF INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
UPSTREAM. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT THEN
STEADILY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ORIGINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE THUS
CAPPED RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...BEFORE A NOTABLE COOLING TREND
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ARRIVAL OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS DISRUPTED STRATUS FORMATION
AND DIMINISHED THE RISK FOR IFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS. A BAND OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS TO THE NORTH OF KSAV ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL FRONT
COULD MAKE FOR LOW CIGS THERE FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING. AT
KCHS...STRATUS IS GENERALLY SCATTERED AND THERE COULD BE PATCHES OF
BROKEN IFR CIGS UNTIL MID MORNING BUT LOOKING UNLIKELY.

VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE RAINS. TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS BUT TIMING/COVERAGE WINDOWS ARE
MOST UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

THE NEXT ITEM TO WATCH OUT FOR IS A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING. NO INTRODUCTIONS JUST YET BUT
THE RISK FOR IFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL BE INVESTIGATED ON LATER CYCLES
TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DESPITE ENHANCED SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
EDOUARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH. IN GENERAL...LIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE BUT REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-3 FT NEARSHORE TO 3-4 FT BEYOND 20
NM FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BEGIN TO SURGE BY FRIDAY...AS A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH AMPLIFIES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE SEAS
BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT. LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS AS THE
INLAND WEDGE WEAKENS BY SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...1-2 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...AND
POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB/WMS






000
FXUS62 KCAE 171326
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
926 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL PUSH TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF IMPULSES EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FA/CSRA. THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING MIXED RESULTS WITH RESPECT TO
PLACEMENT AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION...BUT THINK CHANCE POPS IN ORDER
GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITIES PROJECTED. DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY COULD PROVIDE A THREAT OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG WIND GUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL
KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S
THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. WEDGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EJECTING THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS SUGGEST CONTINUED POSSIBILITIES OF IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO VFR BY AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CHANCES
NOT SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL
INCLUDE IN LATER ISSUANCES IF/WHEN CONFIDENCE WARRANTS.  FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 171145
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
745 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTS THIS MORNING AS INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SPREADS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCED UPPER
FORCING WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING LOW PRES OFF THE
COAST. IN THE LOW LEVELS A BACKDOOR SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
ATLC LOW PRES MOVING OUT.

IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST FOR THE MORNING
HOURS WITH A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
RIPPLE E AND SE THROUGH GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. COVERAGE/DURATION
SHOULD BE LESS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR A REGION OF UPPER DIFLUENCE PROGGED BY JUST ABOUT ALL THE MODELS
LATE DAY. UPPER FORCING COULD ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF E CENTRAL OR NE SOUTH
CAROLINA. WE RAISED POPS INTO THE 40 PERCENT RANGE NE OF WALTERBORO
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE... TYPICAL LATE SUMMER
THERMODYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED WITH JUST ENOUGH MID/UPPER
FLOW TO SUGGEST SOME MULTI-CELL ORGANIZATION AT TIMES. WE CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS EITHER BUT CONFIDENCE WITH THE
MESOSCALE IS QUITE LOW WITH THE WEAKLY SLOPED FRONTAL ZONE IN THE
AREA. SOME OF THE TSTMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL
WILL BE SLOW TO RUN OFF AROUND HIGH TIDE IF STORMS CROP UP ALONG
THE COAST TOWARD MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYERED STEERING IS ALSO
GENERALLY TOWARD THE COAST AS WELL.

TONIGHT...LATER SHIFTS CAN TAKE A HARDER LOOK AT LATE NIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE THERE NEARING DAWN ON THU.
POPS SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER IN THE EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES MOST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY PROGRESS OFFSHORE AND
EVENTUALLY PULL NORTH/NORTHEAST...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FEATURE AND LIFTS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND
CAROLINAS BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...INTRODUCING A NOTABLY DRIER
AIR MASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY
REGION AND SC/GA COASTAL COUNTIES...WHERE SEABREEZE AND COASTAL
CONVERGENCE COULD PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR WEAK CONVECTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT A COOLING TREND...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NOTABLY COOLER...FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT. BEST
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD MOVE INTO THE
COASTLINE WITHIN ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
MOVES OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFF THE
NORTHERN COASTLINE SATURDAY...AN INLAND WEDGE WILL AMPLIFY DOWN
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE A WEAK
UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT THE
ENERGY WITHIN THIS FEATURE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-
DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL
MAINLY BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE MARINE
ZONES...CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HAVE THUS INDICATED A DISTINCT WEST-EAST GRADIENT IN RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES LESS THAN 25
PERCENT ACROSS INLAND ZONES THAT INCREASE TO SOLID CHANCES IN THE
30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR COASTAL COUNTIES...HIGHEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON PERIODS. COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...RISING ONLY INTO THE LOWER 80S EACH DAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TREND EVEN COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY WARMER
COASTLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE PERIPHERY OF INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
UPSTREAM. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT THEN
STEADILY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ORIGINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE THUS
CAPPED RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...BEFORE A NOTABLE COOLING TREND
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ARRIVAL OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS DISRUPTED STRATUS FORMATION
AND DIMINISHED THE RISK FOR IFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS. A BAND OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS TO THE NORTH OF KSAV ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL FRONT
COULD MAKE FOR LOW CIGS THERE FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING. AT
KCHS...STRATUS IS GENERALLY SCATTERED AND THERE COULD BE PATCHES OF
BROKEN IFR CIGS UNTIL MID MORNING BUT LOOKING UNLIKELY.

VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE RAINS. TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS BUT TIMING/COVERAGE WINDOWS ARE
MOST UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

THE NEXT ITEM TO WATCH OUT FOR IS A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING. NO INTRODUCTIONS JUST YET BUT
THE RISK FOR IFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL BE INVESTIGATED ON LATER CYCLES
TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
GROUND SWELL FROM DISTANT MAJOR HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS
TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. SEAS 2 FT NEAR SHORE WILL BUILD TO
3 TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THIS MORNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE
ONSHORE BUT SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
SUBTLE LONG PERIOD SWELL COULD MAKE FOR LOCALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS
AROUND THE JETTIES...ESPECIALLY AROUND TIMES OF LOW TIDE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BEGIN TO SURGE BY FRIDAY...AS A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH AMPLIFIES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE SEAS
BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT. LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS AS THE
INLAND WEDGE WEAKENS BY SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...1-2 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...AND
POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...WMS






000
FXUS62 KCHS 171145
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
745 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTS THIS MORNING AS INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SPREADS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCED UPPER
FORCING WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING LOW PRES OFF THE
COAST. IN THE LOW LEVELS A BACKDOOR SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
ATLC LOW PRES MOVING OUT.

IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST FOR THE MORNING
HOURS WITH A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
RIPPLE E AND SE THROUGH GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. COVERAGE/DURATION
SHOULD BE LESS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR A REGION OF UPPER DIFLUENCE PROGGED BY JUST ABOUT ALL THE MODELS
LATE DAY. UPPER FORCING COULD ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF E CENTRAL OR NE SOUTH
CAROLINA. WE RAISED POPS INTO THE 40 PERCENT RANGE NE OF WALTERBORO
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE... TYPICAL LATE SUMMER
THERMODYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED WITH JUST ENOUGH MID/UPPER
FLOW TO SUGGEST SOME MULTI-CELL ORGANIZATION AT TIMES. WE CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS EITHER BUT CONFIDENCE WITH THE
MESOSCALE IS QUITE LOW WITH THE WEAKLY SLOPED FRONTAL ZONE IN THE
AREA. SOME OF THE TSTMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL
WILL BE SLOW TO RUN OFF AROUND HIGH TIDE IF STORMS CROP UP ALONG
THE COAST TOWARD MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYERED STEERING IS ALSO
GENERALLY TOWARD THE COAST AS WELL.

TONIGHT...LATER SHIFTS CAN TAKE A HARDER LOOK AT LATE NIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE THERE NEARING DAWN ON THU.
POPS SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER IN THE EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES MOST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY PROGRESS OFFSHORE AND
EVENTUALLY PULL NORTH/NORTHEAST...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FEATURE AND LIFTS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND
CAROLINAS BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...INTRODUCING A NOTABLY DRIER
AIR MASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY
REGION AND SC/GA COASTAL COUNTIES...WHERE SEABREEZE AND COASTAL
CONVERGENCE COULD PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR WEAK CONVECTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT A COOLING TREND...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NOTABLY COOLER...FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT. BEST
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD MOVE INTO THE
COASTLINE WITHIN ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
MOVES OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFF THE
NORTHERN COASTLINE SATURDAY...AN INLAND WEDGE WILL AMPLIFY DOWN
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE A WEAK
UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT THE
ENERGY WITHIN THIS FEATURE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-
DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL
MAINLY BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE MARINE
ZONES...CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HAVE THUS INDICATED A DISTINCT WEST-EAST GRADIENT IN RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES LESS THAN 25
PERCENT ACROSS INLAND ZONES THAT INCREASE TO SOLID CHANCES IN THE
30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR COASTAL COUNTIES...HIGHEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON PERIODS. COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...RISING ONLY INTO THE LOWER 80S EACH DAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TREND EVEN COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY WARMER
COASTLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE PERIPHERY OF INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
UPSTREAM. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT THEN
STEADILY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ORIGINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE THUS
CAPPED RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...BEFORE A NOTABLE COOLING TREND
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ARRIVAL OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS DISRUPTED STRATUS FORMATION
AND DIMINISHED THE RISK FOR IFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS. A BAND OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS TO THE NORTH OF KSAV ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL FRONT
COULD MAKE FOR LOW CIGS THERE FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING. AT
KCHS...STRATUS IS GENERALLY SCATTERED AND THERE COULD BE PATCHES OF
BROKEN IFR CIGS UNTIL MID MORNING BUT LOOKING UNLIKELY.

VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE RAINS. TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS BUT TIMING/COVERAGE WINDOWS ARE
MOST UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

THE NEXT ITEM TO WATCH OUT FOR IS A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING. NO INTRODUCTIONS JUST YET BUT
THE RISK FOR IFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL BE INVESTIGATED ON LATER CYCLES
TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
GROUND SWELL FROM DISTANT MAJOR HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS
TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. SEAS 2 FT NEAR SHORE WILL BUILD TO
3 TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THIS MORNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE
ONSHORE BUT SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
SUBTLE LONG PERIOD SWELL COULD MAKE FOR LOCALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS
AROUND THE JETTIES...ESPECIALLY AROUND TIMES OF LOW TIDE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BEGIN TO SURGE BY FRIDAY...AS A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH AMPLIFIES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE SEAS
BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT. LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS AS THE
INLAND WEDGE WEAKENS BY SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...1-2 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...AND
POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...WMS







000
FXUS62 KFFC 171124
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
724 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT NEAR A
LA GRANGE TO MILLEDGEVILLE LINE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A FEW SMALL
SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY POPPING UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT... AND
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. THE
FRONT IS PROGGD TO SAG SOUTH TODAY AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER NORTH MS TRAVERSES THE STATE AND PROVIDES THE NEEDED PUSH.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BY MID TO
LATE MORNING... THEN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL WARRANT SHOWING
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA TODAY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL/DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... BRINGING A RAIN
FREE FORECAST TO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN SPREADING IN OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND
THE SAGGING FRONT... RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ACROSS NORTH GA
TODAY... THEN ACROSS BOTH NORTH AND CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.
A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

39


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION AND NO PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE STATE
WILL KEEP GEORGIA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH GA MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STAYING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO NORTH GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE
DECIDED TO ONLY GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING THE PRECIP SOUTHWARD
MONDAY/TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOLER TEMPS IN
STORE FOR THE STATE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COOLER DRIER AIR MASS
MOVING IN. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT NEAR A CSG TO MCN LINE IS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD DUE TO AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE DISTURBANCE COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...
BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS. OTHERWISE... SOME
MVFR LEVEL SCT CLOUDS MAY PUSH ACROSS ATL THIS MORNING WITH THE
DISTURBANCE... THEN EXPECT MAINLY MID LEVEL SCT CLOUDS DURING
AFTERNOON HEATING TODAY... ONLY FEW AMOUNT ON THU. EXPECT A NW WIND
AROUND 8-10KTS TODAY... 3-5 KTS TONIGHT... THEN 6-8KTS ON THU WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY SWINGING AROUND NE THU AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  61  82  61 /  10  10  10  10
ATLANTA         84  63  84  65 /  10   0   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  56  79  55 /  10  10   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    83  57  84  60 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        90  63  87  66 /  10   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     83  62  82  62 /  10   5   5  10
MACON           90  62  86  63 /  10   5   5  10
ROME            84  57  86  59 /   5   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  85  56  84  61 /  10   0   5  10
VIDALIA         88  67  85  67 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39








000
FXUS62 KCAE 171043
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL PUSH TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW REMAINING
IN THE OGB AREA. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN US.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO
WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IS LOW THOSE WHICH FORM COULD TAP INTO THE DRIER AIR AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
DRIER AIR FINALLY WORKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
CSRA...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL
KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S
THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. WEDGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EJECTING THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY STRATUS IN THE AREA SO
BRIEF PERIOD LOW CEILINGS THROUGH 13Z EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR
AGS/DNL AND OGB TERMINALS. VFR DEVELOPING 14Z-15Z ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS
MORNING...LIKELY NORTH OF CAE/CUB TERMINALS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MAINLY EAST OR NORTHEAST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD RESULT IN
BRIEF IFR/MVFR BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. HIGHEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE NEAR OGB THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170918
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
518 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL PUSH TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW REMAINING
IN THE OGB AREA. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN US.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO
WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IS LOW THOSE WHICH FORM COULD TAP INTO THE DRIER AIR AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
DRIER AIR FINALLY WORKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
CSRA...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL
KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S
THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. WEDGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EJECTING THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH MORNING.
CONDITIONS AT 06Z MAINLY VFR BUT EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OR FOG
TOWARD MORNING DUE TO HIGH-LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT DURING THE
MORNING AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS TO DEVELOP.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BUT FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MAY SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS AS SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD
SHIFT OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 170918
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
518 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL PUSH TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW REMAINING
IN THE OGB AREA. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN US.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO
WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IS LOW THOSE WHICH FORM COULD TAP INTO THE DRIER AIR AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
DRIER AIR FINALLY WORKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
CSRA...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL
KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S
THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. WEDGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EJECTING THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH MORNING.
CONDITIONS AT 06Z MAINLY VFR BUT EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OR FOG
TOWARD MORNING DUE TO HIGH-LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT DURING THE
MORNING AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS TO DEVELOP.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BUT FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MAY SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS AS SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD
SHIFT OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCHS 170822
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
422 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...AREAS OF LAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH AREAS OF STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS
INLAND SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE WIDESPREAD RAINS RE-SATURATED THE
SOILS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE LOW CLOUDS COULD CERTAINLY EXPAND EAST
AND SOUTH BY DAYBREAK WITH AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG PROBLEMS DO NOT LOOK TOO LIKELY GIVEN LATEST
BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH HIGH MOISTURE PROFILES UP TO 850 MB.
A FEW INLAND AREAS COULD SEE VSBYS 1/2 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE NORTH OF
BEAUFORT NEARING DAWN...BUT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN EITHER CLOSER TO THE BEACHES...JUST OFFSHORE OR
MOSTLY N OF THE AREA.

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTS THIS MORNING AS INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SPREADS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCED UPPER
FORCING WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING LOW PRES OFF THE
COAST. IN THE LOW LEVELS A FAIRLY DISORGANIZED BACKDOOR SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE ATLC LOW PRES MOVING OUT.

IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR THE MORNING HOURS
WITH A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIPPLE
E AND SE THROUGH GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. COVERAGE/DURATION
SHOULD BE LESS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY BUT WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A REGION OF UPPER DIFLUENCE PROGGED BY JUST ABOUT ALL
THE MODELS LATE DAY. UPPER FORCING COULD ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF E
CENTRAL OR NE SOUTH CAROLINA. WE RAISED POPS INTO THE 40 PERCENT
RANGE NE OF WALTERBORO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...
TYPICAL LATE SUMMER THERMODYNAMICS ANTICIPATED WITH JUST ENOUGH
MID/UPPER FLOW TO SUGGEST SOME MULTI-CELL ORGANIZATION AT TIMES.
WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS EITHER BUT CONFIDENCE
WITH THE MESOSCALE IS QUITE LOW WITH THE WEAKLY SLOPED FRONTAL
ZONE IN THE AREA. SOME OF THE TSTMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE DOWNPOURS
WHICH WILL WILL BE SLOW TO RUN OFF AROUND HIGH TIDE IF STORMS CROP
UP ALONG THE COAST TOWARD MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYERED STEERING IS
ALSO GENERALLY TOWARD THE COAST AS WELL.

TONIGHT...LATER SHIFTS CAN TAKE A HARDER LOOK AT LATE NIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE THERE NEARING DAWN ON THU.
POPS SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER IN THE EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES MOST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY PROGRESS OFFSHORE AND
EVENTUALLY PULL NORTH/NORTHEAST...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FEATURE AND LIFTS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND
CAROLINAS BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...INTRODUCING A NOTABLY DRIER
AIR MASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY
REGION AND SC/GA COASTAL COUNTIES...WHERE SEABREEZE AND COASTAL
CONVERGENCE COULD PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR WEAK CONVECTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT A COOLING TREND...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NOTABLY COOLER...FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT. BEST
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD MOVE INTO THE
COASTLINE WITHIN ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
MOVES OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFF THE
NORTHERN COASTLINE SATURDAY...AN INLAND WEDGE WILL AMPLIFY DOWN
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE A WEAK
UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT THE
ENERGY WITHIN THIS FEATURE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-
DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL
MAINLY BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE MARINE
ZONES...CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HAVE THUS INDICATED A DISTINCT WEST-EAST GRADIENT IN RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES LESS THAN 25
PERCENT ACROSS INLAND ZONES THAT INCREASE TO SOLID CHANCES IN THE
30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR COASTAL COUNTIES...HIGHEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON PERIODS. COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...RISING ONLY INTO THE LOWER 80S EACH DAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TREND EVEN COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY WARMER
COASTLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE PERIPHERY OF INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
UPSTREAM. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT THEN
STEADILY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ORIGINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE THUS
CAPPED RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...BEFORE A NOTABLE COOLING TREND
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING PRIOR TO 08Z W AND N OF KCHS AND WE
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO SET IN LATER TONIGHT AS THESE LOW CLOUDS
EXPAND. THERE COULD ALSO BE FOG WITH VSBYS BELOW 1 NM BUT AT THIS
TIME CONFIDENCE IS BETTER ON LOW CIGS. AT KSAV,,,WE TRENDED A BIT
MORE OPTIMISTIC LATER TONIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS AND SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS IN THE FIRST COUPLE HUNDRED FEET. IF COULD BECOME IFR OR
LOWER BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAR FROM CONCLUSIVE.

LOW CIGS AND ANY FOG AROUND AT DAYBREAK SHOULD GIVEN WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE ARE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WE HAVE VCSH AFTER MIDDAY TO TREND.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
GROUND SWELL FROM DISTANT MAJOR HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS
TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. SEAS 2 FT NEAR SHORE WILL BUILD TO
3 TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THIS MORNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE
ONSHORE BUT SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
SUBTLE LONG PERIOD SWELL COULD MAKE FOR LOCALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS
AROUND THE JETTIES...ESPECIALLY AROUND TIMES OF LOW TIDE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BEGIN TO SURGE BY FRIDAY...AS A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH AMPLIFIES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE SEAS
BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT. LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS AS THE
INLAND WEDGE WEAKENS BY SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...1-2 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...AND
POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...WMS






000
FXUS62 KCHS 170822
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
422 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...AREAS OF LAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH AREAS OF STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS
INLAND SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE WIDESPREAD RAINS RE-SATURATED THE
SOILS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE LOW CLOUDS COULD CERTAINLY EXPAND EAST
AND SOUTH BY DAYBREAK WITH AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG PROBLEMS DO NOT LOOK TOO LIKELY GIVEN LATEST
BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH HIGH MOISTURE PROFILES UP TO 850 MB.
A FEW INLAND AREAS COULD SEE VSBYS 1/2 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE NORTH OF
BEAUFORT NEARING DAWN...BUT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN EITHER CLOSER TO THE BEACHES...JUST OFFSHORE OR
MOSTLY N OF THE AREA.

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTS THIS MORNING AS INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SPREADS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCED UPPER
FORCING WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING LOW PRES OFF THE
COAST. IN THE LOW LEVELS A FAIRLY DISORGANIZED BACKDOOR SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE ATLC LOW PRES MOVING OUT.

IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR THE MORNING HOURS
WITH A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIPPLE
E AND SE THROUGH GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. COVERAGE/DURATION
SHOULD BE LESS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY BUT WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A REGION OF UPPER DIFLUENCE PROGGED BY JUST ABOUT ALL
THE MODELS LATE DAY. UPPER FORCING COULD ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF E
CENTRAL OR NE SOUTH CAROLINA. WE RAISED POPS INTO THE 40 PERCENT
RANGE NE OF WALTERBORO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...
TYPICAL LATE SUMMER THERMODYNAMICS ANTICIPATED WITH JUST ENOUGH
MID/UPPER FLOW TO SUGGEST SOME MULTI-CELL ORGANIZATION AT TIMES.
WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS EITHER BUT CONFIDENCE
WITH THE MESOSCALE IS QUITE LOW WITH THE WEAKLY SLOPED FRONTAL
ZONE IN THE AREA. SOME OF THE TSTMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE DOWNPOURS
WHICH WILL WILL BE SLOW TO RUN OFF AROUND HIGH TIDE IF STORMS CROP
UP ALONG THE COAST TOWARD MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYERED STEERING IS
ALSO GENERALLY TOWARD THE COAST AS WELL.

TONIGHT...LATER SHIFTS CAN TAKE A HARDER LOOK AT LATE NIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE THERE NEARING DAWN ON THU.
POPS SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER IN THE EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES MOST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY PROGRESS OFFSHORE AND
EVENTUALLY PULL NORTH/NORTHEAST...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FEATURE AND LIFTS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND
CAROLINAS BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...INTRODUCING A NOTABLY DRIER
AIR MASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY
REGION AND SC/GA COASTAL COUNTIES...WHERE SEABREEZE AND COASTAL
CONVERGENCE COULD PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR WEAK CONVECTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT A COOLING TREND...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NOTABLY COOLER...FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT. BEST
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD MOVE INTO THE
COASTLINE WITHIN ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
MOVES OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFF THE
NORTHERN COASTLINE SATURDAY...AN INLAND WEDGE WILL AMPLIFY DOWN
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE A WEAK
UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT THE
ENERGY WITHIN THIS FEATURE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-
DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL
MAINLY BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE MARINE
ZONES...CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HAVE THUS INDICATED A DISTINCT WEST-EAST GRADIENT IN RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES LESS THAN 25
PERCENT ACROSS INLAND ZONES THAT INCREASE TO SOLID CHANCES IN THE
30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR COASTAL COUNTIES...HIGHEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON PERIODS. COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WITHIN THE INLAND WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...RISING ONLY INTO THE LOWER 80S EACH DAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TREND EVEN COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY WARMER
COASTLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE PERIPHERY OF INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY...WHILE
THE INLAND WEDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
UPSTREAM. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FARTHER INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT THEN
STEADILY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ORIGINS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE THUS
CAPPED RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...BEFORE A NOTABLE COOLING TREND
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING PRIOR TO 08Z W AND N OF KCHS AND WE
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO SET IN LATER TONIGHT AS THESE LOW CLOUDS
EXPAND. THERE COULD ALSO BE FOG WITH VSBYS BELOW 1 NM BUT AT THIS
TIME CONFIDENCE IS BETTER ON LOW CIGS. AT KSAV,,,WE TRENDED A BIT
MORE OPTIMISTIC LATER TONIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS AND SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS IN THE FIRST COUPLE HUNDRED FEET. IF COULD BECOME IFR OR
LOWER BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAR FROM CONCLUSIVE.

LOW CIGS AND ANY FOG AROUND AT DAYBREAK SHOULD GIVEN WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE ARE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WE HAVE VCSH AFTER MIDDAY TO TREND.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
GROUND SWELL FROM DISTANT MAJOR HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS
TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. SEAS 2 FT NEAR SHORE WILL BUILD TO
3 TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THIS MORNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE
ONSHORE BUT SPEEDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
SUBTLE LONG PERIOD SWELL COULD MAKE FOR LOCALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS
AROUND THE JETTIES...ESPECIALLY AROUND TIMES OF LOW TIDE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BEGIN TO SURGE BY FRIDAY...AS A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH AMPLIFIES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE SEAS
BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT. LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS AS THE
INLAND WEDGE WEAKENS BY SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...1-2 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...AND
POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...WMS







000
FXUS62 KFFC 170811
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
411 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT NEAR A
LA GRANGE TO MILLEDGEVILLE LINE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A FEW SMALL
SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY POPPING UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT... AND
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. THE
FRONT IS PROGGD TO SAG SOUTH TODAY AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER NORTH MS TRAVERSES THE STATE AND PROVIDES THE NEEDED PUSH.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BY LATE
MORNING... THEN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LACK
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL WARRANT SHOWING ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA TODAY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL/DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... BRINGING A RAIN FREE
FORECAST TO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN SPREADING IN OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND
THE SAGGING FRONT... RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ACROSS NORTH GA
TODAY... THEN ACROSS BOTH NORTH AND CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.
A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

39


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION AND NO PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE STATE
WILL KEEP GEORGIA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH GA MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STAYING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO NORTH GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE
DECIDED TO ONLY GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING THE PRECIP
SOUTHWARD MONDAY/TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOLER
TEMPS IN STORE FOR THE STATE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COOLER DRIER
AIR MASS MOVING IN. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT NEAR AN LGC TO MLJ LINE IS PRODUCING A FEW PATCHES OF
MID LEVEL CIGS THAT MAY BRIEFLY SPREAD OVER ATL EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY... AND SHOULD PUSH
SOUTH OF CSG AND MCN BY 16-18Z TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT... BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09-13Z THIS MORNING. A NW FLOW OF 5-10 KTS WILL PERSIST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  61  82  61 /  10  10  10  10
ATLANTA         84  63  84  65 /  10   0   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  56  79  55 /  10  10   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    83  57  84  60 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        90  63  87  66 /  10   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     83  62  82  62 /  10   5   5  10
MACON           90  62  86  63 /  10   5   5  10
ROME            84  57  86  59 /   5   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  85  56  84  61 /  10   0   5  10
VIDALIA         88  67  85  67 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39





000
FXUS62 KFFC 170811
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
411 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT NEAR A
LA GRANGE TO MILLEDGEVILLE LINE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A FEW SMALL
SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY POPPING UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT... AND
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. THE
FRONT IS PROGGD TO SAG SOUTH TODAY AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER NORTH MS TRAVERSES THE STATE AND PROVIDES THE NEEDED PUSH.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE BY LATE
MORNING... THEN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LACK
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL WARRANT SHOWING ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA TODAY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL/DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... BRINGING A RAIN FREE
FORECAST TO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN SPREADING IN OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND
THE SAGGING FRONT... RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ACROSS NORTH GA
TODAY... THEN ACROSS BOTH NORTH AND CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.
A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

39


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION AND NO PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE STATE
WILL KEEP GEORGIA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTH GA MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STAYING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO NORTH GA THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS A BIT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. HAVE
DECIDED TO ONLY GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING THE PRECIP
SOUTHWARD MONDAY/TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOLER
TEMPS IN STORE FOR THE STATE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COOLER DRIER
AIR MASS MOVING IN. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT NEAR AN LGC TO MLJ LINE IS PRODUCING A FEW PATCHES OF
MID LEVEL CIGS THAT MAY BRIEFLY SPREAD OVER ATL EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY... AND SHOULD PUSH
SOUTH OF CSG AND MCN BY 16-18Z TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT... BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09-13Z THIS MORNING. A NW FLOW OF 5-10 KTS WILL PERSIST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  61  82  61 /  10  10  10  10
ATLANTA         84  63  84  65 /  10   0   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  56  79  55 /  10  10   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    83  57  84  60 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        90  63  87  66 /  10   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     83  62  82  62 /  10   5   5  10
MACON           90  62  86  63 /  10   5   5  10
ROME            84  57  86  59 /   5   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  85  56  84  61 /  10   0   5  10
VIDALIA         88  67  85  67 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39






000
FXUS62 KCAE 170553
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
153 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED LATEST FORECAST TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DEVELOPING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTICITY (MCV) NEAR THE CHARLOTTE AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WITH
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING STORM OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL MIDLANDS FROM
SALUDA...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA AS WELL FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT BUT
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT WHICH IS NEAR CHARLOTTE PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY ANY DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME-FRAME. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH MORNING.
CONDITIONS AT 06Z MAINLY VFR BUT EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OR FOG
TOWARD MORNING DUE TO HIGH-LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT DURING THE
MORNING AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS TO DEVELOP.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BUT FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MAY SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS AS SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD
SHIFT OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170553
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
153 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED LATEST FORECAST TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DEVELOPING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTICITY (MCV) NEAR THE CHARLOTTE AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WITH
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING STORM OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL MIDLANDS FROM
SALUDA...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA AS WELL FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT BUT
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT WHICH IS NEAR CHARLOTTE PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY ANY DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME-FRAME. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH MORNING.
CONDITIONS AT 06Z MAINLY VFR BUT EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OR FOG
TOWARD MORNING DUE TO HIGH-LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT DURING THE
MORNING AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS TO DEVELOP.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BUT FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MAY SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS AS SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD
SHIFT OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 170543
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
143 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY STARTED PUSHING INTO NORTH GEORGIA AT AFD
TIME...PUSHED BY THE STRENGTHENING TROUGH ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. DRIER DEWPOINTS ARE STILL
MAINLY BACK IN TENNESSEE BUT THEY ARE AT LEAST HEADING THIS WAY. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WEAK VORT LOBE PUSHING ACROSS ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
GEORGIA IS HELPING TO FIRE CONVECTION IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. KEPT POPS LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA JUST PAST 06Z TONIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT
QUIET CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. RESIDENTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
WILL NOTICE QUITE A MARKED DECREASE IN TEMPS TONIGHT FROM LAST
NIGHT...CURRENT FORECAST IS RUNNING ON AVERAGE 4-5 DEGREES COOLER
WITH MUCH DRIER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AS WELL. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING BEFORE WINDS START KICKING UP BEHIND THE
FRONT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AGAIN A FEW DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT THAN
WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTH
GEORGIA DUE TO THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH
SOME AREAS IN CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER.
POPS ARE LIMITED TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES AS THE DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH ALOFT PUSHES THE BEST MOISTURE WAY SOUTH TOWARDS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT DROP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES
WITH DRY AIR REALLY DOMINATING THE AREA...WITH LOWS ACTUALLY PROGGED
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS THURSDAY ANOTHER DEGREE OR
SO COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. FOR
NOW HAVE NOT INCLUDED POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE DOWN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SWING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND
POSSIBLY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION. TOO FAR OUT
TO REALLY PIN DOWN ANY DETAILS AT THIS POINT. OVERALL THOUGH...WE
ARE LOOKING AT MUCH NICER FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT.

TDP

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
OVERALL EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
MODEL TRENDS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES AND IS INCLUDED BELOW...

31

/ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH THE SECOND FRONT SOUTH OF
THE CWA AND A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO NORTH AN CENTRAL GEORGIA.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WHICH
WILL ALSO HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS MOVING
IN...BUT THEY ALSO AGREE THAT THERE WILL STILL BE A BIT OF
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE
THROUGH DAY 7. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS MOISTURE THAN THE PAST
FEW RUNS O HAVE DECIDE TO PULL ALL PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST THU
THROUGH SAT. A THIRD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY SO WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP SUN/MON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
INDICATE COOLER TEMPS ARE IN STORE FOR THE STATE...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE COOLER DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN. LOOKING T HIGH TEMPS IN THE
70S AND 80S THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT NEAR AN LGC TO MLJ LINE IS PRODUCING A FEW PATCHES OF
MID LEVEL CIGS THAT MAY BRIEFLY SPREAD OVER ATL EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY... AND SHOULD PUSH
SOUTH OF CSG AND MCN BY 16-18Z TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT... BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09-13Z THIS MORNING. A NW FLOW OF 5-10 KTS WILL PERSIST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  82  61  82 /  20   5   5  10
ATLANTA         67  82  62  81 /  20   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     59  76  54  77 /  20   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    63  82  56  81 /  20   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        69  88  65  86 /  20   5   0   5
GAINESVILLE     65  80  61  79 /  20   5   5   5
MACON           67  88  61  85 /  30   5   5   5
ROME            63  81  56  82 /  10   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  64  84  57  83 /  20   5   0   5
VIDALIA         69  89  67  87 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP/39
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...39












000
FXUS62 KFFC 170543
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
143 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY STARTED PUSHING INTO NORTH GEORGIA AT AFD
TIME...PUSHED BY THE STRENGTHENING TROUGH ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. DRIER DEWPOINTS ARE STILL
MAINLY BACK IN TENNESSEE BUT THEY ARE AT LEAST HEADING THIS WAY. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WEAK VORT LOBE PUSHING ACROSS ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
GEORGIA IS HELPING TO FIRE CONVECTION IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. KEPT POPS LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA JUST PAST 06Z TONIGHT BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT
QUIET CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. RESIDENTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
WILL NOTICE QUITE A MARKED DECREASE IN TEMPS TONIGHT FROM LAST
NIGHT...CURRENT FORECAST IS RUNNING ON AVERAGE 4-5 DEGREES COOLER
WITH MUCH DRIER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AS WELL. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING BEFORE WINDS START KICKING UP BEHIND THE
FRONT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AGAIN A FEW DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT THAN
WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTH
GEORGIA DUE TO THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH
SOME AREAS IN CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER.
POPS ARE LIMITED TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES AS THE DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH ALOFT PUSHES THE BEST MOISTURE WAY SOUTH TOWARDS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT DROP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES
WITH DRY AIR REALLY DOMINATING THE AREA...WITH LOWS ACTUALLY PROGGED
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS THURSDAY ANOTHER DEGREE OR
SO COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. FOR
NOW HAVE NOT INCLUDED POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE DOWN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SWING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND
POSSIBLY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION. TOO FAR OUT
TO REALLY PIN DOWN ANY DETAILS AT THIS POINT. OVERALL THOUGH...WE
ARE LOOKING AT MUCH NICER FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT.

TDP

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
OVERALL EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
MODEL TRENDS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES AND IS INCLUDED BELOW...

31

/ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH THE SECOND FRONT SOUTH OF
THE CWA AND A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO NORTH AN CENTRAL GEORGIA.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WHICH
WILL ALSO HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS MOVING
IN...BUT THEY ALSO AGREE THAT THERE WILL STILL BE A BIT OF
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE
THROUGH DAY 7. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS MOISTURE THAN THE PAST
FEW RUNS O HAVE DECIDE TO PULL ALL PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST THU
THROUGH SAT. A THIRD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY SO WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP SUN/MON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
INDICATE COOLER TEMPS ARE IN STORE FOR THE STATE...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE COOLER DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN. LOOKING T HIGH TEMPS IN THE
70S AND 80S THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT NEAR AN LGC TO MLJ LINE IS PRODUCING A FEW PATCHES OF
MID LEVEL CIGS THAT MAY BRIEFLY SPREAD OVER ATL EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY... AND SHOULD PUSH
SOUTH OF CSG AND MCN BY 16-18Z TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT... BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09-13Z THIS MORNING. A NW FLOW OF 5-10 KTS WILL PERSIST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  82  61  82 /  20   5   5  10
ATLANTA         67  82  62  81 /  20   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     59  76  54  77 /  20   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    63  82  56  81 /  20   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        69  88  65  86 /  20   5   0   5
GAINESVILLE     65  80  61  79 /  20   5   5   5
MACON           67  88  61  85 /  30   5   5   5
ROME            63  81  56  82 /  10   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  64  84  57  83 /  20   5   0   5
VIDALIA         69  89  67  87 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP/39
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...39











000
FXUS62 KCHS 170531
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
131 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING....FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPSTREAM CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE CSRA BUT REMAINING
ROBUST AND PERSISTENT ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION NORTH AND
TREND TOWARD WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE WAS
SLIDING SE OVERNIGHT AND WHILE ADDITIONAL COASTAL RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE...THEY WILL TEND TO REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR THE MOST PART
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF STREAM.

GIVEN SATURATED GROUNDS FROM SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
DAY AND LIGHT/NEARLY CALM SURFACE WINDS...FOG/STRATUS WILL BE AN
ISSUE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED AREAS OF FOG
MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIDING
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK...SPAWNING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST-WEST EXTENDING SFC COLD FRONT THAT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW IN PROGRESSION WHILE ENCOUNTERING AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND/OR OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING WHERE THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE COLLIDE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER
AS DRYER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SFC SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH LATE...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRYER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE. WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST INITIALLY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING INLAND
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER INLAND WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON
THURSDAY AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL ALSO REFLECT
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING PRIOR TO 06Z W AND N OF KCHS AND WE
EXPECTED IFR CONDITIONS TO SET IN LATER TONIGHT AS THESE LOW
CLOUDS EXPAND. THERE COULD ALSO BE FOG WITH VSBYS BELOW 1 NM
BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS BETTER ON LOW CIGS. AT KSAV,,,WE
TRENDED A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC LATER TONIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS AND
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE FIRST COUPLE HUNDRED FEET. IF COULD
BECOME IFR OR LOWER BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAR FROM CONCLUSIVE.

LOW CIGS AND ANY FOG AROUND AT DAYBREAK SHOULD GIVEN WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE ARE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WE HAVE VCSH AFTER MIDDAY TO TREND.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT MAJOR
HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS...AND
ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. THE BULK
OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF THESE CONDITIONS...WHICH
AVERAGES 2 FT ORE LESS ...BUILDING ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO LATE.
MEANWHILE...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OUR WIND FIELDS WILL BE
DRIVEN BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH/NW... AND THE LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION. THIS ALLOWS WINDS TO
VEER TO THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT...THEN AROUND TO THE NW OR NORTH
LATE. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION WINDS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN
ABOUT 10 KT. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF FOG
IMPACTING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BE
SAFE ON THE COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND 2 TO
4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. A STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...2-3 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED ALONG ALL BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 170300
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT....FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO MADE TWEAKS TO TEMP TRENDS DUE TO ATYPICAL DIURNAL
CURVE AS A RESULT OF CONVECTION.

OVERALL...THE PERSISTENT AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED DUE TO LOSS OF INSOLATION/NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.
HOWEVER GIVEN SEVERAL REMNANT MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...THERE IS
STILL SOME NUISANCE ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS OUR GEORGIA ZONES. DESPITE
THIS...THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED AND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SHOULD SEE MOST ACTIVITY SHIFT OFF THE
COAST BY 06Z.

GIVEN SATURATED GROUNDS FROM SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
DAY AND LIGHT/NEARLY CALM SURFACE WINDS...FOG/STRATUS WILL BE AN
ISSUE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED AREAS OF FOG
MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIDING
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK...SPAWNING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST-WEST EXTENDING SFC COLD FRONT THAT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW IN PROGRESSION WHILE ENCOUNTERING AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND/OR OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING WHERE THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE COLLIDE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER
AS DRYER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SFC SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH LATE...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRYER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE. WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST INITIALLY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING INLAND
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER INLAND WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON
THURSDAY AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL ALSO REFLECT
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KSAV THROUGH 06Z...THEN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WANE. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY WET GROUNDS...LITTLE TO NO
WINDS AND A DECENT NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO FORM WE LOOK FOR LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN AFTER 13-14Z WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH THE INTERACTION
OF THE SEA BREEZE THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SUB-VFR WEATHER LATE IN
THE VALID 00Z TAF CYCLE. WE/LL LET FUTURE TAFS ADDRESS THIS
CONCERN AS PROBABILITIES ARE NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE WITH
THE MOST RECENT SET OF TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT MAJOR
HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS...AND
ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. THE BULK
OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF THESE CONDITIONS...WHICH
AVERAGES 2 OR 3 FT EARLY TONIGHT...BUILDING ANOTHER FOOT
LATE...EXCEPT CLIMBING UP TO SOME 5 FOOTERS ON THE OUTER GA
WATERS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN OUR WIND FIELDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
DROPPING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH/NW... AND THE LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATION. THIS ALLOWS WINDS TO VEER TO THE WEST BY
MIDNIGHT...THEN AROUND TO THE NW OR NORTH LATE. OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION WINDS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KT.
THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF FOG IMPACTING THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BE SAFE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND 2 TO
4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. A STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...2-3 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED ALONG ALL BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 170300
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT....FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO MADE TWEAKS TO TEMP TRENDS DUE TO ATYPICAL DIURNAL
CURVE AS A RESULT OF CONVECTION.

OVERALL...THE PERSISTENT AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED DUE TO LOSS OF INSOLATION/NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.
HOWEVER GIVEN SEVERAL REMNANT MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...THERE IS
STILL SOME NUISANCE ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS OUR GEORGIA ZONES. DESPITE
THIS...THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED AND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SHOULD SEE MOST ACTIVITY SHIFT OFF THE
COAST BY 06Z.

GIVEN SATURATED GROUNDS FROM SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
DAY AND LIGHT/NEARLY CALM SURFACE WINDS...FOG/STRATUS WILL BE AN
ISSUE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED AREAS OF FOG
MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIDING
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK...SPAWNING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST-WEST EXTENDING SFC COLD FRONT THAT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW IN PROGRESSION WHILE ENCOUNTERING AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND/OR OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING WHERE THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE COLLIDE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER
AS DRYER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SFC SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH LATE...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRYER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE. WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST INITIALLY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING INLAND
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER INLAND WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON
THURSDAY AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL ALSO REFLECT
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KSAV THROUGH 06Z...THEN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WANE. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY WET GROUNDS...LITTLE TO NO
WINDS AND A DECENT NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO FORM WE LOOK FOR LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN AFTER 13-14Z WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH THE INTERACTION
OF THE SEA BREEZE THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SUB-VFR WEATHER LATE IN
THE VALID 00Z TAF CYCLE. WE/LL LET FUTURE TAFS ADDRESS THIS
CONCERN AS PROBABILITIES ARE NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE WITH
THE MOST RECENT SET OF TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT MAJOR
HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS...AND
ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. THE BULK
OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF THESE CONDITIONS...WHICH
AVERAGES 2 OR 3 FT EARLY TONIGHT...BUILDING ANOTHER FOOT
LATE...EXCEPT CLIMBING UP TO SOME 5 FOOTERS ON THE OUTER GA
WATERS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN OUR WIND FIELDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
DROPPING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH/NW... AND THE LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATION. THIS ALLOWS WINDS TO VEER TO THE WEST BY
MIDNIGHT...THEN AROUND TO THE NW OR NORTH LATE. OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION WINDS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KT.
THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF FOG IMPACTING THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BE SAFE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND 2 TO
4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. A STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...2-3 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED ALONG ALL BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 170300
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT....FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO MADE TWEAKS TO TEMP TRENDS DUE TO ATYPICAL DIURNAL
CURVE AS A RESULT OF CONVECTION.

OVERALL...THE PERSISTENT AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED DUE TO LOSS OF INSOLATION/NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.
HOWEVER GIVEN SEVERAL REMNANT MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...THERE IS
STILL SOME NUISANCE ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS OUR GEORGIA ZONES. DESPITE
THIS...THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED AND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SHOULD SEE MOST ACTIVITY SHIFT OFF THE
COAST BY 06Z.

GIVEN SATURATED GROUNDS FROM SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
DAY AND LIGHT/NEARLY CALM SURFACE WINDS...FOG/STRATUS WILL BE AN
ISSUE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED AREAS OF FOG
MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIDING
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK...SPAWNING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST-WEST EXTENDING SFC COLD FRONT THAT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW IN PROGRESSION WHILE ENCOUNTERING AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND/OR OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING WHERE THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE COLLIDE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER
AS DRYER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SFC SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH LATE...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRYER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE. WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST INITIALLY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING INLAND
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER INLAND WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON
THURSDAY AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL ALSO REFLECT
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KSAV THROUGH 06Z...THEN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WANE. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY WET GROUNDS...LITTLE TO NO
WINDS AND A DECENT NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO FORM WE LOOK FOR LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN AFTER 13-14Z WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH THE INTERACTION
OF THE SEA BREEZE THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SUB-VFR WEATHER LATE IN
THE VALID 00Z TAF CYCLE. WE/LL LET FUTURE TAFS ADDRESS THIS
CONCERN AS PROBABILITIES ARE NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE WITH
THE MOST RECENT SET OF TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT MAJOR
HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS...AND
ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. THE BULK
OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF THESE CONDITIONS...WHICH
AVERAGES 2 OR 3 FT EARLY TONIGHT...BUILDING ANOTHER FOOT
LATE...EXCEPT CLIMBING UP TO SOME 5 FOOTERS ON THE OUTER GA
WATERS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN OUR WIND FIELDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
DROPPING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH/NW... AND THE LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATION. THIS ALLOWS WINDS TO VEER TO THE WEST BY
MIDNIGHT...THEN AROUND TO THE NW OR NORTH LATE. OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION WINDS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KT.
THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF FOG IMPACTING THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BE SAFE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND 2 TO
4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. A STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...2-3 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED ALONG ALL BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 170300
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT....FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. AN INLAND
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO MADE TWEAKS TO TEMP TRENDS DUE TO ATYPICAL DIURNAL
CURVE AS A RESULT OF CONVECTION.

OVERALL...THE PERSISTENT AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED DUE TO LOSS OF INSOLATION/NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.
HOWEVER GIVEN SEVERAL REMNANT MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...THERE IS
STILL SOME NUISANCE ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS OUR GEORGIA ZONES. DESPITE
THIS...THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED AND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SHOULD SEE MOST ACTIVITY SHIFT OFF THE
COAST BY 06Z.

GIVEN SATURATED GROUNDS FROM SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
DAY AND LIGHT/NEARLY CALM SURFACE WINDS...FOG/STRATUS WILL BE AN
ISSUE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED AREAS OF FOG
MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIDING
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK...SPAWNING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG AN EAST-WEST EXTENDING SFC COLD FRONT THAT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW IN PROGRESSION WHILE ENCOUNTERING AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND/OR OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING WHERE THE FRONT AND SEABREEZE COLLIDE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER
AS DRYER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT OFF THE SFC SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH LATE...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRYER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW REMAINS MAINLY OFFSHORE. WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST INITIALLY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING INLAND
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER INLAND WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON
THURSDAY AND LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL ALSO REFLECT
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE INLAND WEDGE PATTERN WEAKENS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BY TUESDAY...YET ARE NOT INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROGRESSION. WILL THUS
REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CAPPING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
RANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KSAV THROUGH 06Z...THEN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WANE. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY WET GROUNDS...LITTLE TO NO
WINDS AND A DECENT NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO FORM WE LOOK FOR LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN AFTER 13-14Z WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH THE INTERACTION
OF THE SEA BREEZE THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SUB-VFR WEATHER LATE IN
THE VALID 00Z TAF CYCLE. WE/LL LET FUTURE TAFS ADDRESS THIS
CONCERN AS PROBABILITIES ARE NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE WITH
THE MOST RECENT SET OF TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND/OR TSRA...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHIFTING ONSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE SWELL ENERGY FROM DISTANT MAJOR
HURRICANE EDOUARD TRICKLING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS...AND
ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY IS TO ARRIVE AS TIME PROGRESSES. THE BULK
OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF THESE CONDITIONS...WHICH
AVERAGES 2 OR 3 FT EARLY TONIGHT...BUILDING ANOTHER FOOT
LATE...EXCEPT CLIMBING UP TO SOME 5 FOOTERS ON THE OUTER GA
WATERS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN OUR WIND FIELDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
DROPPING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH/NW... AND THE LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATION. THIS ALLOWS WINDS TO VEER TO THE WEST BY
MIDNIGHT...THEN AROUND TO THE NW OR NORTH LATE. OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION WINDS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KT.
THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF FOG IMPACTING THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BE SAFE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED MAINLY OF LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...AROUND 2 TO
4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. A STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MODERATE OVER THE WATERS WITHIN A TRANSITIONING PATTERN BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE ONLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS...2-3 FT SWELLS WITH PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS SUPPORT
AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED ALONG ALL BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCAE 170156 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
956 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED LATEST FORECAST TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DEVELOPING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTICITY (MCV) NEAR THE CHARLOTTE AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WITH
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING STORM OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL MIDLANDS FROM
SALUDA...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA AS WELL FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT BUT
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT WHICH IS NEAR CHARLOTTE PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY ANY DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME-FRAME. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. 88D REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE OF
STORMS...ONE ACROSS LAURENS COUNTY MOVING TOWARD THE MIDLANDS AND
ANOTHER ACROSS UNION COUNTY NC HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS/PEE DEE REGION. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS UP
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL NOT INCLUDED IN ANY OF THE
AREA TAFS...HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE STORM IN LAURENS COUNTY
FOR THE COLUMBIA METRO AREA. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENT
LATER IN THE MORNING AS CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 170156 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
956 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED LATEST FORECAST TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DEVELOPING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTICITY (MCV) NEAR THE CHARLOTTE AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WITH
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING STORM OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL MIDLANDS FROM
SALUDA...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA AS WELL FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT BUT
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT WHICH IS NEAR CHARLOTTE PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY ANY DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME-FRAME. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. 88D REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE OF
STORMS...ONE ACROSS LAURENS COUNTY MOVING TOWARD THE MIDLANDS AND
ANOTHER ACROSS UNION COUNTY NC HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS/PEE DEE REGION. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS UP
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL NOT INCLUDED IN ANY OF THE
AREA TAFS...HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE STORM IN LAURENS COUNTY
FOR THE COLUMBIA METRO AREA. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENT
LATER IN THE MORNING AS CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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