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000
FXUS62 KCAE 300131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
831 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE/WV IMAGERY INDICATED ONE SHORT
WAVE MOVING NORTH OF AREA EARL THIS EVENING AND A SECOND SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY.

ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SHORT WAVE LATER TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE
SOME PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE HAVE PRODUCE
ANOTHER WEAK LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE HAVE KEPT A SMALL CHANCE IN ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN SHIFTED THE AREA TOWARD THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA/ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 TOWARD MORNING WITH FRONT MOVING SE
THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND WINDS REMAINING UP
AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER ON THE AREA LAKES AS A 30 TO 40
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO
BE BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS EVENING WINDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO RESPOND...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO PICK UP LATER TONIGHT AND
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. GUIDANCE BLEND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRI NT/EARLY SAT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE COOL MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE E CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS ENE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC MON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL KEEP THE LOW TRACK
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. THAT PLUS LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW
TREND TOWARDS A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPS SUN. INSTABILITIES APPEAR
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A NEW WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF LATE MON INTO
TUE WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN
WED...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN TUE NT. ACCEPTED HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WILL NOT OCCUR DUE TO FOG OR RAINFALL AT THE
TERMINALS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS INTO
THE MVFR RANGE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL/OGB BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
THIS SCENARIO AND THINK IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT OCCURS. CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LOW VFR 3500-5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS THEN SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER 06Z. MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14Z FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 12
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 300131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
831 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE/WV IMAGERY INDICATED ONE SHORT
WAVE MOVING NORTH OF AREA EARL THIS EVENING AND A SECOND SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY.

ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SHORT WAVE LATER TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE
SOME PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE HAVE PRODUCE
ANOTHER WEAK LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE HAVE KEPT A SMALL CHANCE IN ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN SHIFTED THE AREA TOWARD THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA/ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 TOWARD MORNING WITH FRONT MOVING SE
THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND WINDS REMAINING UP
AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER ON THE AREA LAKES AS A 30 TO 40
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO
BE BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS EVENING WINDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO RESPOND...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO PICK UP LATER TONIGHT AND
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. GUIDANCE BLEND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRI NT/EARLY SAT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE COOL MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE E CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS ENE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC MON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL KEEP THE LOW TRACK
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. THAT PLUS LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW
TREND TOWARDS A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPS SUN. INSTABILITIES APPEAR
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A NEW WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF LATE MON INTO
TUE WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN
WED...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN TUE NT. ACCEPTED HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WILL NOT OCCUR DUE TO FOG OR RAINFALL AT THE
TERMINALS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS INTO
THE MVFR RANGE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL/OGB BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
THIS SCENARIO AND THINK IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT OCCURS. CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LOW VFR 3500-5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS THEN SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER 06Z. MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14Z FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 12
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 300131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
831 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE/WV IMAGERY INDICATED ONE SHORT
WAVE MOVING NORTH OF AREA EARL THIS EVENING AND A SECOND SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY.

ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SHORT WAVE LATER TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE
SOME PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE HAVE PRODUCE
ANOTHER WEAK LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE HAVE KEPT A SMALL CHANCE IN ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN SHIFTED THE AREA TOWARD THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA/ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 TOWARD MORNING WITH FRONT MOVING SE
THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND WINDS REMAINING UP
AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER ON THE AREA LAKES AS A 30 TO 40
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO
BE BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS EVENING WINDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO RESPOND...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO PICK UP LATER TONIGHT AND
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. GUIDANCE BLEND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRI NT/EARLY SAT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE COOL MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE E CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS ENE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC MON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL KEEP THE LOW TRACK
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. THAT PLUS LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW
TREND TOWARDS A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPS SUN. INSTABILITIES APPEAR
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A NEW WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF LATE MON INTO
TUE WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN
WED...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN TUE NT. ACCEPTED HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WILL NOT OCCUR DUE TO FOG OR RAINFALL AT THE
TERMINALS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS INTO
THE MVFR RANGE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL/OGB BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
THIS SCENARIO AND THINK IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT OCCURS. CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LOW VFR 3500-5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS THEN SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER 06Z. MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14Z FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 12
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 300131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
831 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE/WV IMAGERY INDICATED ONE SHORT
WAVE MOVING NORTH OF AREA EARL THIS EVENING AND A SECOND SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY.

ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SHORT WAVE LATER TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE
SOME PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE HAVE PRODUCE
ANOTHER WEAK LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS.
THEREFORE HAVE KEPT A SMALL CHANCE IN ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN SHIFTED THE AREA TOWARD THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA/ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 TOWARD MORNING WITH FRONT MOVING SE
THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND WINDS REMAINING UP
AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER ON THE AREA LAKES AS A 30 TO 40
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO
BE BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS EVENING WINDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO RESPOND...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO PICK UP LATER TONIGHT AND
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. GUIDANCE BLEND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRI NT/EARLY SAT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE COOL MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE E CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS ENE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC MON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL KEEP THE LOW TRACK
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. THAT PLUS LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW
TREND TOWARDS A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPS SUN. INSTABILITIES APPEAR
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A NEW WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF LATE MON INTO
TUE WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN
WED...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN TUE NT. ACCEPTED HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WILL NOT OCCUR DUE TO FOG OR RAINFALL AT THE
TERMINALS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS INTO
THE MVFR RANGE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL/OGB BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
THIS SCENARIO AND THINK IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT OCCURS. CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LOW VFR 3500-5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS THEN SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER 06Z. MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14Z FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 12
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77




  [top]

000
FXUS62 KFFC 300111
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
811 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO ENTER NORTHWEST GEORGIA. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WITH EACH
RUN OF THE LOCAL RADAR MODELS THEY BECOME DRIER AND DRIER. HOWEVER
WILL HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT BUT AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN EVEN THIS HAPPENING IS GETTING LOWER AND
LOWER. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AS THESE LOOK ON TARGET.

17

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIMINISHING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL SEE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE MOVES
INTO THE NORTH WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE AS
WELL AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WHEN THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR A BRIEF MIXTURE OR TURN-OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH. INDICATIONS ARE THE CHANCES
REMAIN MINIMAL...BUT NOT ZERO. HAVE INCLUDED SOME MIXTURE LATE IN
THE EVENING INTO THE MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME IN THE GRIDS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AND NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT QUICKLY EARLY FRIDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW
NORMAL LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

20

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
COLD FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR N GA AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS PORTIONS
OF N AND CENTRAL GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT AND MVFR CIGS MOVING ACROSS TN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WITH DOWNSLOPING THE MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR BY NOON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AND GUSTY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  37  50  29 /  20  30  10   5
ATLANTA         57  36  49  30 /  20  20  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     52  32  42  23 /  30  30  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    58  36  46  26 /  30  30   5   5
COLUMBUS        61  41  55  32 /   5  20  10   5
GAINESVILLE     55  35  48  30 /  20  30  10   5
MACON           58  40  55  30 /   5  30  10   5
ROME            58  36  45  26 /  30  30   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  38  50  27 /  10  20  10   5
VIDALIA         63  46  59  33 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...17




000
FXUS62 KFFC 300111
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
811 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO ENTER NORTHWEST GEORGIA. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WITH EACH
RUN OF THE LOCAL RADAR MODELS THEY BECOME DRIER AND DRIER. HOWEVER
WILL HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT BUT AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN EVEN THIS HAPPENING IS GETTING LOWER AND
LOWER. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AS THESE LOOK ON TARGET.

17

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIMINISHING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL SEE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE MOVES
INTO THE NORTH WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE AS
WELL AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WHEN THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR A BRIEF MIXTURE OR TURN-OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH. INDICATIONS ARE THE CHANCES
REMAIN MINIMAL...BUT NOT ZERO. HAVE INCLUDED SOME MIXTURE LATE IN
THE EVENING INTO THE MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME IN THE GRIDS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AND NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT QUICKLY EARLY FRIDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW
NORMAL LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

20

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
COLD FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR N GA AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS PORTIONS
OF N AND CENTRAL GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT AND MVFR CIGS MOVING ACROSS TN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WITH DOWNSLOPING THE MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR BY NOON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AND GUSTY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  37  50  29 /  20  30  10   5
ATLANTA         57  36  49  30 /  20  20  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     52  32  42  23 /  30  30  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    58  36  46  26 /  30  30   5   5
COLUMBUS        61  41  55  32 /   5  20  10   5
GAINESVILLE     55  35  48  30 /  20  30  10   5
MACON           58  40  55  30 /   5  30  10   5
ROME            58  36  45  26 /  30  30   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  38  50  27 /  10  20  10   5
VIDALIA         63  46  59  33 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...17




000
FXUS62 KFFC 300111
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
811 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO ENTER NORTHWEST GEORGIA. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WITH EACH
RUN OF THE LOCAL RADAR MODELS THEY BECOME DRIER AND DRIER. HOWEVER
WILL HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT BUT AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN EVEN THIS HAPPENING IS GETTING LOWER AND
LOWER. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AS THESE LOOK ON TARGET.

17

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIMINISHING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL SEE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE MOVES
INTO THE NORTH WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE AS
WELL AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WHEN THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR A BRIEF MIXTURE OR TURN-OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH. INDICATIONS ARE THE CHANCES
REMAIN MINIMAL...BUT NOT ZERO. HAVE INCLUDED SOME MIXTURE LATE IN
THE EVENING INTO THE MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME IN THE GRIDS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AND NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT QUICKLY EARLY FRIDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW
NORMAL LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

20

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
COLD FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR N GA AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS PORTIONS
OF N AND CENTRAL GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT AND MVFR CIGS MOVING ACROSS TN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WITH DOWNSLOPING THE MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR BY NOON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AND GUSTY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  37  50  29 /  20  30  10   5
ATLANTA         57  36  49  30 /  20  20  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     52  32  42  23 /  30  30  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    58  36  46  26 /  30  30   5   5
COLUMBUS        61  41  55  32 /   5  20  10   5
GAINESVILLE     55  35  48  30 /  20  30  10   5
MACON           58  40  55  30 /   5  30  10   5
ROME            58  36  45  26 /  30  30   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  38  50  27 /  10  20  10   5
VIDALIA         63  46  59  33 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...17




000
FXUS62 KFFC 300111
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
811 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO ENTER NORTHWEST GEORGIA. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WITH EACH
RUN OF THE LOCAL RADAR MODELS THEY BECOME DRIER AND DRIER. HOWEVER
WILL HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT BUT AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN EVEN THIS HAPPENING IS GETTING LOWER AND
LOWER. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AS THESE LOOK ON TARGET.

17

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIMINISHING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL SEE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE MOVES
INTO THE NORTH WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE AS
WELL AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WHEN THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR A BRIEF MIXTURE OR TURN-OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH. INDICATIONS ARE THE CHANCES
REMAIN MINIMAL...BUT NOT ZERO. HAVE INCLUDED SOME MIXTURE LATE IN
THE EVENING INTO THE MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME IN THE GRIDS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AND NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT QUICKLY EARLY FRIDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW
NORMAL LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

20

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
COLD FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR N GA AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS PORTIONS
OF N AND CENTRAL GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT AND MVFR CIGS MOVING ACROSS TN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WITH DOWNSLOPING THE MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR BY NOON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AND GUSTY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  37  50  29 /  20  30  10   5
ATLANTA         57  36  49  30 /  20  20  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     52  32  42  23 /  30  30  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    58  36  46  26 /  30  30   5   5
COLUMBUS        61  41  55  32 /   5  20  10   5
GAINESVILLE     55  35  48  30 /  20  30  10   5
MACON           58  40  55  30 /   5  30  10   5
ROME            58  36  45  26 /  30  30   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  38  50  27 /  10  20  10   5
VIDALIA         63  46  59  33 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...17



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCHS 300024
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
724 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO
THE REGION TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THURSDAY EVENING...A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WAS ADVANCING
INTO INLAND COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT
RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN AS THESE SHOWERS PUSH INTO DRIER
AIR/TOWARD THE COAST...BUT AN EARLIER ONSET OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IS JUSTIFIED. OTHERWISE...FORECASTS REMAIN ON TRACK AND REQUIRED
MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY ELEMENTS TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. AS IT DOES...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
THE COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...FROM NONE AT ALL TO UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM
RUN TO RUN. THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PVA ALOFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EVEN A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE
POPS FOR THE TRI- COUNTY REGION. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE
LIGHT AND SHORTLIVED...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT
MOST. SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT AND RUNS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST ENDING QUICKLY NEAR
DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER SC...WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING 60...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
BEAUFORT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT MAKING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OTHER THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND FREEZING MOST OTHER PLACES AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WITH A DRY AND
COOL DAY ON TAP ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE A BIT GIVEN THE COLD START LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE MID 50S MOST PLACES...WITH LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE
SANTEE RIVER AND UPPER 50S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-16. A BIT MORE HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WELL
TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS. COULD SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHING OFFSHORE BUT
STILL DRY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND BUT LOWER
TO MID 40S AT THE COAST.

SUNDAY...ANY COASTAL TROUGH EARLY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY AS
THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO COME LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY WELL
INLAND AND POSSIBLY SKIRTING THE SC COAST. DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TEMPS SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND 60 IN THE
CHARLESTON AREA WITH MID 60S NEAR AND SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND THE TIME OF COLD FROPA DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME
FRAME. ALSO...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP FROM 03Z-06Z
UNTIL JUST AFTER 12Z...WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
AND WILL GUST TO 20-25 KNOTS MUCH OF FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN MVFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER CONDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A
PASSING COLD FRONT. BREEZY CONDS ALSO LIKELY SUN NIGHT/MON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PUSH THROUGH LATE. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT S/SE
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS EARLY...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE SW AND
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A QUICK RAMP UP IN
WIND SPEEDS STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT...WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
EXPANDING THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AS WELL AS THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH A START TIME OF MIDNIGHT THOUGH THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 20-25
KT WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA...AND 15-20 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE...EXCEPT
UP TO 4 FT IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE SC AND OFFSHORE GA
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
STEADILY BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO
THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A
MARGINAL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED OVER THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL LIKELY CREATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY WILL
THEN LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ330-350-352-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH/SPR
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/RJB/SPR
MARINE...BSH/RJB/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 300024
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
724 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO
THE REGION TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THURSDAY EVENING...A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WAS ADVANCING
INTO INLAND COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT
RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN AS THESE SHOWERS PUSH INTO DRIER
AIR/TOWARD THE COAST...BUT AN EARLIER ONSET OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IS JUSTIFIED. OTHERWISE...FORECASTS REMAIN ON TRACK AND REQUIRED
MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY ELEMENTS TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. AS IT DOES...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
THE COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...FROM NONE AT ALL TO UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM
RUN TO RUN. THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PVA ALOFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EVEN A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE
POPS FOR THE TRI- COUNTY REGION. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE
LIGHT AND SHORTLIVED...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT
MOST. SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT AND RUNS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST ENDING QUICKLY NEAR
DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER SC...WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING 60...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
BEAUFORT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT MAKING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OTHER THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND FREEZING MOST OTHER PLACES AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WITH A DRY AND
COOL DAY ON TAP ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE A BIT GIVEN THE COLD START LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE MID 50S MOST PLACES...WITH LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE
SANTEE RIVER AND UPPER 50S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-16. A BIT MORE HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WELL
TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS. COULD SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHING OFFSHORE BUT
STILL DRY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND BUT LOWER
TO MID 40S AT THE COAST.

SUNDAY...ANY COASTAL TROUGH EARLY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY AS
THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO COME LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY WELL
INLAND AND POSSIBLY SKIRTING THE SC COAST. DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TEMPS SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND 60 IN THE
CHARLESTON AREA WITH MID 60S NEAR AND SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND THE TIME OF COLD FROPA DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME
FRAME. ALSO...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP FROM 03Z-06Z
UNTIL JUST AFTER 12Z...WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
AND WILL GUST TO 20-25 KNOTS MUCH OF FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN MVFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER CONDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A
PASSING COLD FRONT. BREEZY CONDS ALSO LIKELY SUN NIGHT/MON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PUSH THROUGH LATE. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT S/SE
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS EARLY...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE SW AND
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A QUICK RAMP UP IN
WIND SPEEDS STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT...WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
EXPANDING THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AS WELL AS THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH A START TIME OF MIDNIGHT THOUGH THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 20-25
KT WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA...AND 15-20 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE...EXCEPT
UP TO 4 FT IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE SC AND OFFSHORE GA
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
STEADILY BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO
THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A
MARGINAL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED OVER THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL LIKELY CREATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY WILL
THEN LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ330-350-352-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH/SPR
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/RJB/SPR
MARINE...BSH/RJB/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 300024
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
724 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO
THE REGION TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THURSDAY EVENING...A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WAS ADVANCING
INTO INLAND COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT
RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN AS THESE SHOWERS PUSH INTO DRIER
AIR/TOWARD THE COAST...BUT AN EARLIER ONSET OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IS JUSTIFIED. OTHERWISE...FORECASTS REMAIN ON TRACK AND REQUIRED
MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY ELEMENTS TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. AS IT DOES...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
THE COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...FROM NONE AT ALL TO UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM
RUN TO RUN. THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PVA ALOFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EVEN A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE
POPS FOR THE TRI- COUNTY REGION. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE
LIGHT AND SHORTLIVED...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT
MOST. SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT AND RUNS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST ENDING QUICKLY NEAR
DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER SC...WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING 60...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
BEAUFORT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT MAKING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OTHER THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND FREEZING MOST OTHER PLACES AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WITH A DRY AND
COOL DAY ON TAP ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE A BIT GIVEN THE COLD START LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE MID 50S MOST PLACES...WITH LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE
SANTEE RIVER AND UPPER 50S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-16. A BIT MORE HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WELL
TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS. COULD SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHING OFFSHORE BUT
STILL DRY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND BUT LOWER
TO MID 40S AT THE COAST.

SUNDAY...ANY COASTAL TROUGH EARLY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY AS
THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO COME LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY WELL
INLAND AND POSSIBLY SKIRTING THE SC COAST. DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TEMPS SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND 60 IN THE
CHARLESTON AREA WITH MID 60S NEAR AND SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND THE TIME OF COLD FROPA DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME
FRAME. ALSO...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP FROM 03Z-06Z
UNTIL JUST AFTER 12Z...WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
AND WILL GUST TO 20-25 KNOTS MUCH OF FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN MVFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER CONDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A
PASSING COLD FRONT. BREEZY CONDS ALSO LIKELY SUN NIGHT/MON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PUSH THROUGH LATE. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT S/SE
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS EARLY...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE SW AND
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A QUICK RAMP UP IN
WIND SPEEDS STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT...WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
EXPANDING THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AS WELL AS THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH A START TIME OF MIDNIGHT THOUGH THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 20-25
KT WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA...AND 15-20 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE...EXCEPT
UP TO 4 FT IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE SC AND OFFSHORE GA
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
STEADILY BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO
THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A
MARGINAL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED OVER THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL LIKELY CREATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY WILL
THEN LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ330-350-352-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH/SPR
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/RJB/SPR
MARINE...BSH/RJB/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 300024
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
724 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO
THE REGION TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THURSDAY EVENING...A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WAS ADVANCING
INTO INLAND COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT
RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN AS THESE SHOWERS PUSH INTO DRIER
AIR/TOWARD THE COAST...BUT AN EARLIER ONSET OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IS JUSTIFIED. OTHERWISE...FORECASTS REMAIN ON TRACK AND REQUIRED
MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY ELEMENTS TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. AS IT DOES...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
THE COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...FROM NONE AT ALL TO UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM
RUN TO RUN. THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PVA ALOFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EVEN A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE
POPS FOR THE TRI- COUNTY REGION. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE
LIGHT AND SHORTLIVED...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT
MOST. SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT AND RUNS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST ENDING QUICKLY NEAR
DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER SC...WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING 60...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
BEAUFORT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT MAKING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OTHER THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND FREEZING MOST OTHER PLACES AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WITH A DRY AND
COOL DAY ON TAP ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE A BIT GIVEN THE COLD START LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE MID 50S MOST PLACES...WITH LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE
SANTEE RIVER AND UPPER 50S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-16. A BIT MORE HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WELL
TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS. COULD SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHING OFFSHORE BUT
STILL DRY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND BUT LOWER
TO MID 40S AT THE COAST.

SUNDAY...ANY COASTAL TROUGH EARLY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY AS
THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO COME LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY WELL
INLAND AND POSSIBLY SKIRTING THE SC COAST. DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TEMPS SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND 60 IN THE
CHARLESTON AREA WITH MID 60S NEAR AND SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND THE TIME OF COLD FROPA DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME
FRAME. ALSO...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP FROM 03Z-06Z
UNTIL JUST AFTER 12Z...WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
AND WILL GUST TO 20-25 KNOTS MUCH OF FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN MVFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER CONDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A
PASSING COLD FRONT. BREEZY CONDS ALSO LIKELY SUN NIGHT/MON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PUSH THROUGH LATE. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT S/SE
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS EARLY...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE SW AND
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A QUICK RAMP UP IN
WIND SPEEDS STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT...WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
EXPANDING THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AS WELL AS THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH A START TIME OF MIDNIGHT THOUGH THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 20-25
KT WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA...AND 15-20 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE...EXCEPT
UP TO 4 FT IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE SC AND OFFSHORE GA
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
STEADILY BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO
THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A
MARGINAL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED OVER THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL LIKELY CREATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY WILL
THEN LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ330-350-352-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH/SPR
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/RJB/SPR
MARINE...BSH/RJB/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCAE 292348
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT DRY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE/WV IMAGERY INDICATED
ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH OF AREA EARL THIS EVENING AND A SECOND
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY.

ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SHORT WAVE LATER TONIGHT...MODELS HAVE
SOME PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY
LIGHT. CLOUDS AND WINDS REMAINING UP AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER
ON THE AREA LAKES AS A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO BE BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. GUIDANCE BLEND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRI NT/EARLY SAT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE COOL MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE E CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS ENE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC MON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL KEEP THE LOW TRACK
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. THAT PLUS LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW
TREND TOWARDS A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPS SUN. INSTABILITIES APPEAR
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A NEW WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF LATE MON INTO
TUE WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN
WED...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN TUE NT. ACCEPTED HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WILL NOT OCCUR DUE TO FOG OR RAINFALL AT THE
TERMINALS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOWERING CIGS INTO
THE MVFR RANGE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL/OGB BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
THIS SCENARIO AND THINK IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF IT OCCURS. CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LOW VFR 3500-5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS THEN SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER 06Z. MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14Z FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 12
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KFFC 292339
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
639 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIMINISHING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL SEE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE MOVES
INTO THE NORTH WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE AS
WELL AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WHEN THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR A BRIEF MIXTURE OR TURN-OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH. INDICATIONS ARE THE CHANCES
REMAIN MINIMAL...BUT NOT ZERO. HAVE INCLUDED SOME MIXTURE LATE IN
THE EVENING INTO THE MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME IN THE GRIDS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AND NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT QUICKLY EARLY FRIDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW
NORMAL LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

20

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
COLD FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR N GA AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS PORTIONS
OF N AND CENTRAL GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT AND MVFR CIGS MOVING ACROSS TN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WITH DOWNSLOPING THE MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR BY NOON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AND GUSTY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          37  50  29  54 /  30  10   5   0
ATLANTA         36  49  30  54 /  20  10   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     32  42  23  52 /  30  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    36  46  26  52 /  30   5   5   0
COLUMBUS        41  55  32  58 /  20  10   5   0
GAINESVILLE     35  48  30  52 /  30  10   5   0
MACON           40  55  30  55 /  30  10   5   0
ROME            36  45  26  52 /  30   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  38  50  27  56 /  20  10   5   0
VIDALIA         46  59  33  56 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...17




000
FXUS62 KFFC 292339
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
639 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIMINISHING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL SEE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE MOVES
INTO THE NORTH WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE AS
WELL AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WHEN THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR A BRIEF MIXTURE OR TURN-OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH. INDICATIONS ARE THE CHANCES
REMAIN MINIMAL...BUT NOT ZERO. HAVE INCLUDED SOME MIXTURE LATE IN
THE EVENING INTO THE MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME IN THE GRIDS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AND NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT QUICKLY EARLY FRIDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW
NORMAL LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

20

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
COLD FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR N GA AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS PORTIONS
OF N AND CENTRAL GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT AND MVFR CIGS MOVING ACROSS TN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WITH DOWNSLOPING THE MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR BY NOON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AND GUSTY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          37  50  29  54 /  30  10   5   0
ATLANTA         36  49  30  54 /  20  10   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     32  42  23  52 /  30  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    36  46  26  52 /  30   5   5   0
COLUMBUS        41  55  32  58 /  20  10   5   0
GAINESVILLE     35  48  30  52 /  30  10   5   0
MACON           40  55  30  55 /  30  10   5   0
ROME            36  45  26  52 /  30   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  38  50  27  56 /  20  10   5   0
VIDALIA         46  59  33  56 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...17



000
FXUS62 KCHS 292103
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
403 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN
TO THE REGION TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. AS IT DOES...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE
COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...FROM NONE AT ALL TO
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM RUN TO RUN. THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON
OF MOISTURE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PVA ALOFT
WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EVEN A
SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE TRI-COUNTY REGION. ANY RAINFALL
THAT OCCURS WILL BE LIGHT AND SHORTLIVED...WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST LATE
TONIGHT AND INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S
INLAND AND UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT AND RUNS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST ENDING QUICKLY NEAR
DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER SC...WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING 60...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
BEAUFORT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT MAKING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OTHER THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND FREEZING MOST OTHER PLACES AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WITH A DRY AND
COOL DAY ON TAP ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE A BIT GIVEN THE COLD START LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE MID 50S MOST PLACES...WITH LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE
SANTEE RIVER AND UPPER 50S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-16. A BIT MORE HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WELL
TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS. COULD SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHING OFFSHORE BUT
STILL DRY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND BUT LOWER
TO MID 40S AT THE COAST.

SUNDAY...ANY COASTAL TROUGH EARLY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY AS
THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO COME LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY WELL
INLAND AND POSSIBLY SKIRTING THE SC COAST. DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TEMPS SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND 60 IN THE
CHARLESTON AREA WITH MID 60S NEAR AND SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND INTO MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND BRING WITH IT A NARROW RIBBON
OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS. GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A SMALL TIME WINDOW WITHIN WHICH CEILINGS COULD
LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. ANY CEILING REDUCTIONS THAT DO OCCUR
WILL BE SHORTLIVED AND WILL LIKELY BE BEST HANDLED WITH TEMPO
GROUPS CLOSER TO THE TIME. AS A RESULT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT
VFR THROUGHOUT. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AT KCHS. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO NOT PRODUCE ANY
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL BE GUSTY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN MVFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER CONDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A
PASSING COLD FRONT. BREEZY CONDS ALSO LIKELY SUN NIGHT/MON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PUSH THROUGH LATE. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...FIRST FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THEN EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE
WEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A QUICK RAMP
UP IN WIND SPEEDS STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT...WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EXPANDING
THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS AS WELL AS THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WILL CONTINUE TO
GO WITH A START TIME OF MIDNIGHT THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR LATER IN THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 20-25 KT WITHIN
THE ADVISORY AREA...AND 15-20 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE...EXCEPT UP TO 4 FT IN THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE SC AND OFFSHORE GA
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
STEADILY BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO
THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A
MARGINAL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED OVER THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL LIKELY CREATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY WILL
THEN LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ330-350-352-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/RJB
MARINE...BSH/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 292103
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
403 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN
TO THE REGION TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. AS IT DOES...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE
COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...FROM NONE AT ALL TO
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM RUN TO RUN. THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON
OF MOISTURE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PVA ALOFT
WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EVEN A
SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE TRI-COUNTY REGION. ANY RAINFALL
THAT OCCURS WILL BE LIGHT AND SHORTLIVED...WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST LATE
TONIGHT AND INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S
INLAND AND UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT AND RUNS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST ENDING QUICKLY NEAR
DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER SC...WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING 60...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
BEAUFORT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT MAKING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OTHER THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND FREEZING MOST OTHER PLACES AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WITH A DRY AND
COOL DAY ON TAP ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE A BIT GIVEN THE COLD START LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE MID 50S MOST PLACES...WITH LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE
SANTEE RIVER AND UPPER 50S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-16. A BIT MORE HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WELL
TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS. COULD SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHING OFFSHORE BUT
STILL DRY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND BUT LOWER
TO MID 40S AT THE COAST.

SUNDAY...ANY COASTAL TROUGH EARLY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY AS
THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO COME LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY WELL
INLAND AND POSSIBLY SKIRTING THE SC COAST. DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TEMPS SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND 60 IN THE
CHARLESTON AREA WITH MID 60S NEAR AND SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND INTO MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND BRING WITH IT A NARROW RIBBON
OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS. GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A SMALL TIME WINDOW WITHIN WHICH CEILINGS COULD
LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. ANY CEILING REDUCTIONS THAT DO OCCUR
WILL BE SHORTLIVED AND WILL LIKELY BE BEST HANDLED WITH TEMPO
GROUPS CLOSER TO THE TIME. AS A RESULT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT
VFR THROUGHOUT. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AT KCHS. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO NOT PRODUCE ANY
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL BE GUSTY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN MVFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER CONDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A
PASSING COLD FRONT. BREEZY CONDS ALSO LIKELY SUN NIGHT/MON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PUSH THROUGH LATE. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...FIRST FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THEN EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE
WEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A QUICK RAMP
UP IN WIND SPEEDS STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT...WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EXPANDING
THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS AS WELL AS THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WILL CONTINUE TO
GO WITH A START TIME OF MIDNIGHT THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR LATER IN THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 20-25 KT WITHIN
THE ADVISORY AREA...AND 15-20 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE...EXCEPT UP TO 4 FT IN THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE SC AND OFFSHORE GA
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
STEADILY BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO
THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A
MARGINAL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED OVER THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL LIKELY CREATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY WILL
THEN LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ330-350-352-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/RJB
MARINE...BSH/RJB



000
FXUS62 KFFC 291914
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
214 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIMINISHING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL SEE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE MOVES
INTO THE NORTH WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE AS
WELL AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WHEN THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR A BRIEF MIXTURE OR TURN-OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH. INDICATIONS ARE THE CHANCES
REMAIN MINIMAL...BUT NOT ZERO. HAVE INCLUDED SOME MIXTURE LATE IN
THE EVENING INTO THE MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME IN THE GRIDS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AND NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT QUICKLY EARLY FRIDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW
NORMAL LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

20

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
COLD FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR N GA AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS PORTIONS
OF N AND CENTRAL GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z
WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z
AND 06Z. VFR TO UNLIMITED CEILINGS RETURN BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12KT THROUGH 00Z...DIMINISHING TO 4-8KT AND
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WINDS BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 08Z
AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
WINDS SPEEDS INCREASE TO 8-12KT BY 10Z...AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE
REACHING 10-15KT W/GUSTS 20-25KT BY 15Z. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          37  50  29  54 /  30  10   5   0
ATLANTA         36  49  30  54 /  20  10   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     32  42  23  52 /  30  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    36  46  26  52 /  30   5   5   0
COLUMBUS        41  55  32  58 /  20  10   5   0
GAINESVILLE     35  48  30  52 /  30  10   5   0
MACON           40  55  30  55 /  30  10   5   0
ROME            36  45  26  52 /  30   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  38  50  27  56 /  20  10   5   0
VIDALIA         46  59  33  56 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...20



000
FXUS62 KFFC 291914
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
214 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIMINISHING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL SEE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE MOVES
INTO THE NORTH WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE AS
WELL AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WHEN THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR A BRIEF MIXTURE OR TURN-OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH. INDICATIONS ARE THE CHANCES
REMAIN MINIMAL...BUT NOT ZERO. HAVE INCLUDED SOME MIXTURE LATE IN
THE EVENING INTO THE MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME IN THE GRIDS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AND NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT QUICKLY EARLY FRIDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW
NORMAL LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

20

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
COLD FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR N GA AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS PORTIONS
OF N AND CENTRAL GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z
WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z
AND 06Z. VFR TO UNLIMITED CEILINGS RETURN BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12KT THROUGH 00Z...DIMINISHING TO 4-8KT AND
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WINDS BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 08Z
AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
WINDS SPEEDS INCREASE TO 8-12KT BY 10Z...AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE
REACHING 10-15KT W/GUSTS 20-25KT BY 15Z. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          37  50  29  54 /  30  10   5   0
ATLANTA         36  49  30  54 /  20  10   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     32  42  23  52 /  30  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    36  46  26  52 /  30   5   5   0
COLUMBUS        41  55  32  58 /  20  10   5   0
GAINESVILLE     35  48  30  52 /  30  10   5   0
MACON           40  55  30  55 /  30  10   5   0
ROME            36  45  26  52 /  30   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  38  50  27  56 /  20  10   5   0
VIDALIA         46  59  33  56 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...20



000
FXUS62 KFFC 291914
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
214 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIMINISHING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL SEE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE MOVES
INTO THE NORTH WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE AS
WELL AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WHEN THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR A BRIEF MIXTURE OR TURN-OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH. INDICATIONS ARE THE CHANCES
REMAIN MINIMAL...BUT NOT ZERO. HAVE INCLUDED SOME MIXTURE LATE IN
THE EVENING INTO THE MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME IN THE GRIDS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AND NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT QUICKLY EARLY FRIDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW
NORMAL LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

20

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
COLD FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR N GA AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS PORTIONS
OF N AND CENTRAL GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z
WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z
AND 06Z. VFR TO UNLIMITED CEILINGS RETURN BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12KT THROUGH 00Z...DIMINISHING TO 4-8KT AND
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WINDS BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 08Z
AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
WINDS SPEEDS INCREASE TO 8-12KT BY 10Z...AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE
REACHING 10-15KT W/GUSTS 20-25KT BY 15Z. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          37  50  29  54 /  30  10   5   0
ATLANTA         36  49  30  54 /  20  10   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     32  42  23  52 /  30  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    36  46  26  52 /  30   5   5   0
COLUMBUS        41  55  32  58 /  20  10   5   0
GAINESVILLE     35  48  30  52 /  30  10   5   0
MACON           40  55  30  55 /  30  10   5   0
ROME            36  45  26  52 /  30   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  38  50  27  56 /  20  10   5   0
VIDALIA         46  59  33  56 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...20



000
FXUS62 KFFC 291914
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
214 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIMINISHING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL SEE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE MOVES
INTO THE NORTH WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE AS
WELL AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WHEN THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR A BRIEF MIXTURE OR TURN-OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH. INDICATIONS ARE THE CHANCES
REMAIN MINIMAL...BUT NOT ZERO. HAVE INCLUDED SOME MIXTURE LATE IN
THE EVENING INTO THE MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME IN THE GRIDS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AND NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT QUICKLY EARLY FRIDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW
NORMAL LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

20

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
COLD FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR N GA AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS PORTIONS
OF N AND CENTRAL GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z
WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z
AND 06Z. VFR TO UNLIMITED CEILINGS RETURN BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12KT THROUGH 00Z...DIMINISHING TO 4-8KT AND
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WINDS BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 08Z
AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
WINDS SPEEDS INCREASE TO 8-12KT BY 10Z...AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE
REACHING 10-15KT W/GUSTS 20-25KT BY 15Z. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          37  50  29  54 /  30  10   5   0
ATLANTA         36  49  30  54 /  20  10   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     32  42  23  52 /  30  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    36  46  26  52 /  30   5   5   0
COLUMBUS        41  55  32  58 /  20  10   5   0
GAINESVILLE     35  48  30  52 /  30  10   5   0
MACON           40  55  30  55 /  30  10   5   0
ROME            36  45  26  52 /  30   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  38  50  27  56 /  20  10   5   0
VIDALIA         46  59  33  56 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...20



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291839
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
139 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AND ANY ADDITIONAL
WARMING SHOULD BE LIMITED THANKS TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
EVENING...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE...WITH BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE
MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER CLOUD
COVER. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWING IN
ITS WAKE. ANY RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COASTLINE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL RETREAT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. COLD AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
CLEARING SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...AS
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MITIGATED BY THE WARMING
EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER REFLECT THE COOLER AIR MASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SUPPORT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE COASTLINE AND CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH STEADILY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE LOSS
OF THE MORE SOLID DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTH. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT ZERO. THE INSULATING EFFECTS
OF THICKENING SKY COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...MID 30S FAR INLAND TO LOW 40S EAST AND
SOUTH.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SLIPPED OFF THE COASTLINE BY THE
MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH THE PATTERN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING AND
BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH BRIEFLY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE IN THE MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN
QUICKLY MOVES INLAND AND TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WITHIN A PRECIPITATION
GAP BETWEEN THE LIFTING COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL THUS CAP RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 30 PERCENT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PEAKING
IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND INTO MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND BRING WITH IT A NARROW RIBBON
OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS. GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A SMALL TIME WINDOW WITHIN WHICH CEILINGS COULD
LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. ANY CEILING REDUCTIONS THAT DO OCCUR
WILL BE SHORTLIVED AND WILL LIKELY BE BEST HANDLED WITH TEMPO
GROUPS CLOSER TO THE TIME. AS A RESULT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT
VFR THROUGHOUT. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AT KCHS. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO NOT PRODUCE ANY
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL BE GUSTY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST POST FROPA AND INCREASE AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR REMAINING WATERS...BUT A LOW CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS REMAINS FOR WATERS BEYOND 10 NM INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE...COULD SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH/DPB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...DPB/WMS



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291839
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
139 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AND ANY ADDITIONAL
WARMING SHOULD BE LIMITED THANKS TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
EVENING...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE...WITH BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE
MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER CLOUD
COVER. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWING IN
ITS WAKE. ANY RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COASTLINE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL RETREAT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. COLD AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
CLEARING SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...AS
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MITIGATED BY THE WARMING
EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER REFLECT THE COOLER AIR MASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SUPPORT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE COASTLINE AND CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH STEADILY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE LOSS
OF THE MORE SOLID DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTH. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT ZERO. THE INSULATING EFFECTS
OF THICKENING SKY COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...MID 30S FAR INLAND TO LOW 40S EAST AND
SOUTH.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SLIPPED OFF THE COASTLINE BY THE
MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH THE PATTERN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING AND
BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH BRIEFLY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE IN THE MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN
QUICKLY MOVES INLAND AND TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WITHIN A PRECIPITATION
GAP BETWEEN THE LIFTING COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL THUS CAP RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 30 PERCENT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PEAKING
IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND INTO MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND BRING WITH IT A NARROW RIBBON
OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS. GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A SMALL TIME WINDOW WITHIN WHICH CEILINGS COULD
LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. ANY CEILING REDUCTIONS THAT DO OCCUR
WILL BE SHORTLIVED AND WILL LIKELY BE BEST HANDLED WITH TEMPO
GROUPS CLOSER TO THE TIME. AS A RESULT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT
VFR THROUGHOUT. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AT KCHS. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO NOT PRODUCE ANY
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL BE GUSTY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST POST FROPA AND INCREASE AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR REMAINING WATERS...BUT A LOW CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS REMAINS FOR WATERS BEYOND 10 NM INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE...COULD SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH/DPB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291834 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
130 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
GOLDEN ISLES OF GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FORM OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. A LOOK AT THE INITIALIZED
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SHOWS STRONG JET STREAK THROUGH THE ARKLATEX
WHICH IS PUTTING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAST TRACK THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THE RULE AT THIS HOUR.

FOR TODAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING TWO DISTINCT WAVES OF
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT NEITHER ONE
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE LOCAL WRF AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE FIRST IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA BY MID MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FIRST WAVE WILL RESULT IN LOW END
CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT AND HAVE BUMPED UP
VALUES TO MID RANGE CHANCE BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z ROUGHLY AS PRECIP
AXIS TRANSLATES FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
GEORGIA INCLUDING THE ATLANTA METRO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH COLUMN BECOMING SATURATED FROM THE
SURFACE TO 8K FEET AND EVEN WITH MEAGER LIFT...SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT VALUES TO WARRANT CONTINUED CHANCE POPS AS FRONT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH EVERY 6 HR BLOCK FOR THIS EVENT.

FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGH BRIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING FOR A COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW. WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND FOR
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

DEESE

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z
WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z
AND 06Z. VFR TO UNLIMITED CEILINGS RETURN BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12KT THROUGH 00Z...DIMINISHING TO 4-8KT AND
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WINDS BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 08Z
AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
WINDS SPEEDS INCREASE TO 8-12KT BY 10Z...AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE
REACHING 10-15KT W/GUSTS 20-25KT BY 15Z. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  35  54  28 /  10  30   0   0
ATLANTA         57  37  51  31 /  10  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     52  31  42  24 /  20  40   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    58  35  47  25 /  20  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        61  42  57  31 /   5  30   5   0
GAINESVILLE     55  35  49  28 /  10  30   0   0
MACON           58  40  56  30 /   5  30   5   0
ROME            58  36  47  26 /  20  40   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  36  52  26 /  10  40   0   0
VIDALIA         63  46  58  34 /   5  30  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291834 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
130 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
GOLDEN ISLES OF GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FORM OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. A LOOK AT THE INITIALIZED
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SHOWS STRONG JET STREAK THROUGH THE ARKLATEX
WHICH IS PUTTING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAST TRACK THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THE RULE AT THIS HOUR.

FOR TODAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING TWO DISTINCT WAVES OF
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT NEITHER ONE
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE LOCAL WRF AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE FIRST IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA BY MID MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FIRST WAVE WILL RESULT IN LOW END
CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT AND HAVE BUMPED UP
VALUES TO MID RANGE CHANCE BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z ROUGHLY AS PRECIP
AXIS TRANSLATES FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
GEORGIA INCLUDING THE ATLANTA METRO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH COLUMN BECOMING SATURATED FROM THE
SURFACE TO 8K FEET AND EVEN WITH MEAGER LIFT...SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT VALUES TO WARRANT CONTINUED CHANCE POPS AS FRONT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH EVERY 6 HR BLOCK FOR THIS EVENT.

FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGH BRIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING FOR A COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW. WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND FOR
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

DEESE

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z
WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z
AND 06Z. VFR TO UNLIMITED CEILINGS RETURN BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12KT THROUGH 00Z...DIMINISHING TO 4-8KT AND
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WINDS BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 08Z
AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
WINDS SPEEDS INCREASE TO 8-12KT BY 10Z...AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE
REACHING 10-15KT W/GUSTS 20-25KT BY 15Z. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  35  54  28 /  10  30   0   0
ATLANTA         57  37  51  31 /  10  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     52  31  42  24 /  20  40   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    58  35  47  25 /  20  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        61  42  57  31 /   5  30   5   0
GAINESVILLE     55  35  49  28 /  10  30   0   0
MACON           58  40  56  30 /   5  30   5   0
ROME            58  36  47  26 /  20  40   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  36  52  26 /  10  40   0   0
VIDALIA         63  46  58  34 /   5  30  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291834 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
130 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
GOLDEN ISLES OF GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FORM OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. A LOOK AT THE INITIALIZED
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SHOWS STRONG JET STREAK THROUGH THE ARKLATEX
WHICH IS PUTTING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAST TRACK THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THE RULE AT THIS HOUR.

FOR TODAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING TWO DISTINCT WAVES OF
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT NEITHER ONE
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE LOCAL WRF AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE FIRST IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA BY MID MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FIRST WAVE WILL RESULT IN LOW END
CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT AND HAVE BUMPED UP
VALUES TO MID RANGE CHANCE BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z ROUGHLY AS PRECIP
AXIS TRANSLATES FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
GEORGIA INCLUDING THE ATLANTA METRO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH COLUMN BECOMING SATURATED FROM THE
SURFACE TO 8K FEET AND EVEN WITH MEAGER LIFT...SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT VALUES TO WARRANT CONTINUED CHANCE POPS AS FRONT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH EVERY 6 HR BLOCK FOR THIS EVENT.

FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGH BRIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING FOR A COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW. WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND FOR
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

DEESE

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z
WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z
AND 06Z. VFR TO UNLIMITED CEILINGS RETURN BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12KT THROUGH 00Z...DIMINISHING TO 4-8KT AND
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WINDS BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 08Z
AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
WINDS SPEEDS INCREASE TO 8-12KT BY 10Z...AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE
REACHING 10-15KT W/GUSTS 20-25KT BY 15Z. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  35  54  28 /  10  30   0   0
ATLANTA         57  37  51  31 /  10  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     52  31  42  24 /  20  40   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    58  35  47  25 /  20  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        61  42  57  31 /   5  30   5   0
GAINESVILLE     55  35  49  28 /  10  30   0   0
MACON           58  40  56  30 /   5  30   5   0
ROME            58  36  47  26 /  20  40   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  36  52  26 /  10  40   0   0
VIDALIA         63  46  58  34 /   5  30  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291834 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
130 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
GOLDEN ISLES OF GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FORM OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. A LOOK AT THE INITIALIZED
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SHOWS STRONG JET STREAK THROUGH THE ARKLATEX
WHICH IS PUTTING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAST TRACK THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THE RULE AT THIS HOUR.

FOR TODAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING TWO DISTINCT WAVES OF
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT NEITHER ONE
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE LOCAL WRF AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE FIRST IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA BY MID MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FIRST WAVE WILL RESULT IN LOW END
CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT AND HAVE BUMPED UP
VALUES TO MID RANGE CHANCE BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z ROUGHLY AS PRECIP
AXIS TRANSLATES FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
GEORGIA INCLUDING THE ATLANTA METRO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH COLUMN BECOMING SATURATED FROM THE
SURFACE TO 8K FEET AND EVEN WITH MEAGER LIFT...SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT VALUES TO WARRANT CONTINUED CHANCE POPS AS FRONT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH EVERY 6 HR BLOCK FOR THIS EVENT.

FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGH BRIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING FOR A COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW. WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND FOR
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

DEESE

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z
WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z
AND 06Z. VFR TO UNLIMITED CEILINGS RETURN BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12KT THROUGH 00Z...DIMINISHING TO 4-8KT AND
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WINDS BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 08Z
AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
WINDS SPEEDS INCREASE TO 8-12KT BY 10Z...AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE
REACHING 10-15KT W/GUSTS 20-25KT BY 15Z. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  35  54  28 /  10  30   0   0
ATLANTA         57  37  51  31 /  10  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     52  31  42  24 /  20  40   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    58  35  47  25 /  20  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        61  42  57  31 /   5  30   5   0
GAINESVILLE     55  35  49  28 /  10  30   0   0
MACON           58  40  56  30 /   5  30   5   0
ROME            58  36  47  26 /  20  40   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  36  52  26 /  10  40   0   0
VIDALIA         63  46  58  34 /   5  30  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291811
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
111 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO
OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH OF AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL BE MOVE EAST
OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA BY MID-AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP MOVING THROUGH
THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN REDEVELOPING CLOSER
TO THE COAST BY MORNING. WE KEPT THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT. CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. GUIDANCE BLEND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRI NT/EARLY SAT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE COOL MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE E CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS ENE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC MON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL KEEP THE LOW TRACK
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. THAT PLUS LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW
TREND TOWARDS A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPS SUN. INSTABILITIES APPEAR
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A NEW WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF LATE MON INTO
TUE WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN
WED...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN TUE NT. ACCEPTED HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 07Z-10Z TIME-FRAME. CLOUDS BASES
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER 03Z...CIGS
SHOULD LOWER 4-5 KFT. CIGS AROUND 2 KFT AND BRIEF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE SINCE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT AND PROBABILITY
IS LOW. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE BY
SUNSET. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND
10 KNOTS...BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 30/14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291811
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
111 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO
OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH OF AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL BE MOVE EAST
OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA BY MID-AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP MOVING THROUGH
THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN REDEVELOPING CLOSER
TO THE COAST BY MORNING. WE KEPT THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT. CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. GUIDANCE BLEND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRI NT/EARLY SAT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE COOL MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE E CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS ENE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC MON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL KEEP THE LOW TRACK
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. THAT PLUS LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW
TREND TOWARDS A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPS SUN. INSTABILITIES APPEAR
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A NEW WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF LATE MON INTO
TUE WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN
WED...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN TUE NT. ACCEPTED HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 07Z-10Z TIME-FRAME. CLOUDS BASES
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER 03Z...CIGS
SHOULD LOWER 4-5 KFT. CIGS AROUND 2 KFT AND BRIEF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE SINCE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT AND PROBABILITY
IS LOW. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE BY
SUNSET. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND
10 KNOTS...BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 30/14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291811
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
111 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO
OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH OF AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL BE MOVE EAST
OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA BY MID-AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP MOVING THROUGH
THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN REDEVELOPING CLOSER
TO THE COAST BY MORNING. WE KEPT THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT. CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. GUIDANCE BLEND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRI NT/EARLY SAT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE COOL MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE E CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS ENE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC MON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL KEEP THE LOW TRACK
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. THAT PLUS LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW
TREND TOWARDS A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPS SUN. INSTABILITIES APPEAR
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A NEW WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF LATE MON INTO
TUE WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN
WED...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN TUE NT. ACCEPTED HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 07Z-10Z TIME-FRAME. CLOUDS BASES
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER 03Z...CIGS
SHOULD LOWER 4-5 KFT. CIGS AROUND 2 KFT AND BRIEF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE SINCE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT AND PROBABILITY
IS LOW. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE BY
SUNSET. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND
10 KNOTS...BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 30/14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291811
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
111 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO
OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH OF AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL BE MOVE EAST
OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA BY MID-AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP MOVING THROUGH
THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS
MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN REDEVELOPING CLOSER
TO THE COAST BY MORNING. WE KEPT THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT. CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NW FLOW WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. GUIDANCE BLEND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRI NT/EARLY SAT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE COOL MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY. CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE E CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS ENE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC MON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL KEEP THE LOW TRACK
JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS TRACK WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. THAT PLUS LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW
TREND TOWARDS A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPS SUN. INSTABILITIES APPEAR
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVIDE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A NEW WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF LATE MON INTO
TUE WHICH TRACKS TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE RETURN
WED...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE BACK IN TUE NT. ACCEPTED HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE 07Z-10Z TIME-FRAME. CLOUDS BASES
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER 03Z...CIGS
SHOULD LOWER 4-5 KFT. CIGS AROUND 2 KFT AND BRIEF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE SINCE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT AND PROBABILITY
IS LOW. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE BY
SUNSET. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND
10 KNOTS...BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 30/14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 291602
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1102 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
EVENING...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE...WITH BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE
MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER CLOUD
COVER. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWING IN
ITS WAKE. ANY RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COASTLINE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL RETREAT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. COLD AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
CLEARING SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...AS
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MITIGATED BY THE WARMING
EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER REFLECT THE COOLER AIR MASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SUPPORT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE COASTLINE AND CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH STEADILY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE LOSS
OF THE MORE SOLID DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTH. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT ZERO. THE INSULATING EFFECTS
OF THICKENING SKY COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...MID 30S FAR INLAND TO LOW 40S EAST AND
SOUTH.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SLIPPED OFF THE COASTLINE BY THE
MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH THE PATTERN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING AND
BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH BRIEFLY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE IN THE MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN
QUICKLY MOVES INLAND AND TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WITHIN A PRECIPITATION
GAP BETWEEN THE LIFTING COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL THUS CAP RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 30 PERCENT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PEAKING
IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS. CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS
APPEAR BEST AT THE CHS TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST POST FROPA AND INCREASE AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR REMAINING WATERS...BUT A LOW CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS REMAINS FOR WATERS BEYOND 10 NM INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE...COULD SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH/DPB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS



000
FXUS62 KCHS 291602
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1102 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
EVENING...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE...WITH BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE
MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER CLOUD
COVER. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWING IN
ITS WAKE. ANY RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COASTLINE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL RETREAT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. COLD AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
CLEARING SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...AS
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MITIGATED BY THE WARMING
EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER REFLECT THE COOLER AIR MASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SUPPORT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE COASTLINE AND CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH STEADILY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE LOSS
OF THE MORE SOLID DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTH. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT ZERO. THE INSULATING EFFECTS
OF THICKENING SKY COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...MID 30S FAR INLAND TO LOW 40S EAST AND
SOUTH.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SLIPPED OFF THE COASTLINE BY THE
MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH THE PATTERN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING AND
BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH BRIEFLY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE IN THE MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN
QUICKLY MOVES INLAND AND TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WITHIN A PRECIPITATION
GAP BETWEEN THE LIFTING COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL THUS CAP RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 30 PERCENT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PEAKING
IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS. CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS
APPEAR BEST AT THE CHS TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST POST FROPA AND INCREASE AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR REMAINING WATERS...BUT A LOW CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS REMAINS FOR WATERS BEYOND 10 NM INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE...COULD SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH/DPB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291500
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1000 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS THIS MORNING. WV LOOP SHOWS
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OFF FLAT...BUT WILL DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS HAVE SOME
PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DRY TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...DRY COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO START OFF DRY...THEN THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THEN TRACK EAST/NORTHEASTWARDS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD...AND GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GET PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS
BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THE ECMWF BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. NEAR CALM
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. COULD GET
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE
07Z-10Z TIME-FRAME. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. NO FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 291500
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1000 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS THIS MORNING. WV LOOP SHOWS
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OFF FLAT...BUT WILL DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS HAVE SOME
PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DRY TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...DRY COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO START OFF DRY...THEN THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THEN TRACK EAST/NORTHEASTWARDS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD...AND GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GET PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS
BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THE ECMWF BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. NEAR CALM
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. COULD GET
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE
07Z-10Z TIME-FRAME. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. NO FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 291500
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1000 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS THIS MORNING. WV LOOP SHOWS
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OFF FLAT...BUT WILL DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS HAVE SOME
PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DRY TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...DRY COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO START OFF DRY...THEN THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THEN TRACK EAST/NORTHEASTWARDS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD...AND GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GET PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS
BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THE ECMWF BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. NEAR CALM
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. COULD GET
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE
07Z-10Z TIME-FRAME. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. NO FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 291500
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1000 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS THIS MORNING. WV LOOP SHOWS
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OFF FLAT...BUT WILL DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS HAVE SOME
PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DRY TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...DRY COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO START OFF DRY...THEN THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THEN TRACK EAST/NORTHEASTWARDS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD...AND GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GET PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS
BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THE ECMWF BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. NEAR CALM
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. COULD GET
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN THE
07Z-10Z TIME-FRAME. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. NO FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 291254
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
754 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS THIS MORNING. WV LOOP SHOWS
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OFF FLAT...BUT WILL DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS HAVE SOME
PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DRY TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...DRY COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO START OFF DRY...THEN THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THEN TRACK EAST/NORTHEASTWARDS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD...AND GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GET PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS
BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THE ECMWF BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST COAST IS ALLOWING SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TO SPILL INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE CALM THROUGH AROUND 15Z
THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP TO 10 MPH AFTER 15Z. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
NO FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 291254
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
754 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS THIS MORNING. WV LOOP SHOWS
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OFF FLAT...BUT WILL DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS HAVE SOME
PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DRY TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...DRY COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO START OFF DRY...THEN THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THEN TRACK EAST/NORTHEASTWARDS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD...AND GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GET PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS
BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THE ECMWF BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST COAST IS ALLOWING SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TO SPILL INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE CALM THROUGH AROUND 15Z
THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP TO 10 MPH AFTER 15Z. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
NO FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 291213
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
713 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...TEMPS WILL START OFF CHILLY THIS MORNING FROM FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLIER...BUT SHOULD WARM UP
QUICKLY ONCE A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION IS BROKEN WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL
THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE...A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTING TO THE
REGION. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LVL FORCING
EARLY...RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH MID LVL RIDGING
EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
EVENTUALLY WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO AROUND
60 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CIRRUS SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER HEATING
POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE NOSE OF A H25
JET SHIFTS OVER THE AREA.

TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
EVENING...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE...WITH BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE
MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER CLOUD
COVER. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWING IN
ITS WAKE. ANY RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COASTLINE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL RETREAT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. COLD AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
CLEARING SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...AS
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MITIGATED BY THE WARMING
EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER REFLECT THE COOLER AIR MASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SUPPORT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE COASTLINE AND CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH STEADILY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE LOSS
OF THE MORE SOLID DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTH. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT ZERO. THE INSULATING EFFECTS
OF THICKENING SKY COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...MID 30S FAR INLAND TO LOW 40S EAST AND
SOUTH.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SLIPPED OFF THE COASTLINE BY THE
MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH THE PATTERN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING AND
BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH BRIEFLY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE IN THE MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN
QUICKLY MOVES INLAND AND TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WITHIN A PRECIPITATION
GAP BETWEEN THE LIFTING COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL THUS CAP RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 30 PERCENT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PEAKING
IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS. CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS APPEAR
BEST AT THE CHS TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST POST FROPA AND INCREASE AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR REMAINING WATERS...BUT A LOW CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS REMAINS FOR WATERS BEYOND 10 NM INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE...COULD SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291213
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
713 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...TEMPS WILL START OFF CHILLY THIS MORNING FROM FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLIER...BUT SHOULD WARM UP
QUICKLY ONCE A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION IS BROKEN WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL
THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE...A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTING TO THE
REGION. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LVL FORCING
EARLY...RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH MID LVL RIDGING
EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
EVENTUALLY WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO AROUND
60 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CIRRUS SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER HEATING
POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE NOSE OF A H25
JET SHIFTS OVER THE AREA.

TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
EVENING...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE...WITH BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE
MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER CLOUD
COVER. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWING IN
ITS WAKE. ANY RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COASTLINE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL RETREAT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. COLD AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
CLEARING SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...AS
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MITIGATED BY THE WARMING
EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER REFLECT THE COOLER AIR MASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SUPPORT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE COASTLINE AND CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH STEADILY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE LOSS
OF THE MORE SOLID DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTH. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT ZERO. THE INSULATING EFFECTS
OF THICKENING SKY COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...MID 30S FAR INLAND TO LOW 40S EAST AND
SOUTH.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SLIPPED OFF THE COASTLINE BY THE
MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH THE PATTERN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING AND
BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH BRIEFLY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE IN THE MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN
QUICKLY MOVES INLAND AND TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WITHIN A PRECIPITATION
GAP BETWEEN THE LIFTING COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL THUS CAP RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 30 PERCENT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PEAKING
IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS. CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS APPEAR
BEST AT THE CHS TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST POST FROPA AND INCREASE AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR REMAINING WATERS...BUT A LOW CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS REMAINS FOR WATERS BEYOND 10 NM INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE...COULD SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291213
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
713 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...TEMPS WILL START OFF CHILLY THIS MORNING FROM FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLIER...BUT SHOULD WARM UP
QUICKLY ONCE A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION IS BROKEN WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL
THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE...A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTING TO THE
REGION. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LVL FORCING
EARLY...RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH MID LVL RIDGING
EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
EVENTUALLY WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO AROUND
60 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CIRRUS SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER HEATING
POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE NOSE OF A H25
JET SHIFTS OVER THE AREA.

TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
EVENING...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE...WITH BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE
MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER CLOUD
COVER. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWING IN
ITS WAKE. ANY RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COASTLINE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL RETREAT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. COLD AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
CLEARING SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...AS
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MITIGATED BY THE WARMING
EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER REFLECT THE COOLER AIR MASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SUPPORT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE COASTLINE AND CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH STEADILY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE LOSS
OF THE MORE SOLID DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTH. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT ZERO. THE INSULATING EFFECTS
OF THICKENING SKY COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...MID 30S FAR INLAND TO LOW 40S EAST AND
SOUTH.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SLIPPED OFF THE COASTLINE BY THE
MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH THE PATTERN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING AND
BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH BRIEFLY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE IN THE MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN
QUICKLY MOVES INLAND AND TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WITHIN A PRECIPITATION
GAP BETWEEN THE LIFTING COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL THUS CAP RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 30 PERCENT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PEAKING
IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS. CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS APPEAR
BEST AT THE CHS TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST POST FROPA AND INCREASE AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR REMAINING WATERS...BUT A LOW CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS REMAINS FOR WATERS BEYOND 10 NM INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE...COULD SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291213
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
713 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...TEMPS WILL START OFF CHILLY THIS MORNING FROM FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLIER...BUT SHOULD WARM UP
QUICKLY ONCE A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION IS BROKEN WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL
THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE...A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTING TO THE
REGION. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LVL FORCING
EARLY...RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH MID LVL RIDGING
EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
EVENTUALLY WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO AROUND
60 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CIRRUS SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER HEATING
POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE NOSE OF A H25
JET SHIFTS OVER THE AREA.

TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
EVENING...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE...WITH BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE
MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER CLOUD
COVER. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWING IN
ITS WAKE. ANY RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COASTLINE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL RETREAT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. COLD AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
CLEARING SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...AS
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MITIGATED BY THE WARMING
EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER REFLECT THE COOLER AIR MASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SUPPORT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE COASTLINE AND CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH STEADILY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE LOSS
OF THE MORE SOLID DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTH. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT ZERO. THE INSULATING EFFECTS
OF THICKENING SKY COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...MID 30S FAR INLAND TO LOW 40S EAST AND
SOUTH.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SLIPPED OFF THE COASTLINE BY THE
MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH THE PATTERN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING AND
BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH BRIEFLY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE IN THE MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN
QUICKLY MOVES INLAND AND TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WITHIN A PRECIPITATION
GAP BETWEEN THE LIFTING COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL THUS CAP RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 30 PERCENT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PEAKING
IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS. CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS APPEAR
BEST AT THE CHS TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST POST FROPA AND INCREASE AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR REMAINING WATERS...BUT A LOW CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS REMAINS FOR WATERS BEYOND 10 NM INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE...COULD SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291136
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
636 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS THIS MORNING. WV LOOP SHOWS
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OFF FLAT...BUT WILL DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS HAVE SOME
PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DRY TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...DRY COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO START OFF DRY...THEN THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THEN TRACK EAST/NORTHEASTWARDS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD...AND GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GET PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS
BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THE ECMWF BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST COAST IS ALLOWING SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TO SPILL INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE CALM THROUGH AROUND 15Z
THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP TO 10 MPH AFTER 15Z. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
NO FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 291136
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
636 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS THIS MORNING. WV LOOP SHOWS
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OFF FLAT...BUT WILL DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS HAVE SOME
PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DRY TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...DRY COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO START OFF DRY...THEN THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THEN TRACK EAST/NORTHEASTWARDS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD...AND GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GET PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS
BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THE ECMWF BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST COAST IS ALLOWING SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TO SPILL INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE CALM THROUGH AROUND 15Z
THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP TO 10 MPH AFTER 15Z. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
NO FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 291135
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
635 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
GOLDEN ISLES OF GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FORM OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. A LOOK AT THE INITIALIZED
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SHOWS STRONG JET STREAK THROUGH THE ARKLATEX
WHICH IS PUTTING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAST TRACK THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THE RULE AT THIS HOUR.

FOR TODAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING TWO DISTINCT WAVES OF
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT NEITHER ONE
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE LOCAL WRF AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE FIRST IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA BY MID MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FIRST WAVE WILL RESULT IN LOW END
CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT AND HAVE BUMPED UP
VALUES TO MID RANGE CHANCE BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z ROUGHLY AS PRECIP
AXIS TRANSLATES FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
GEORGIA INCLUDING THE ATLANTA METRO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH COLUMN BECOMING SATURATED FROM THE
SURFACE TO 8K FEET AND EVEN WITH MEAGER LIFT...SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT VALUES TO WARRANT CONTINUED CHANCE POPS AS FRONT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH EVERY 6 HR BLOCK FOR THIS EVENT.

FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGH BRIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING FOR A COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW. WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND FOR
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

DEESE

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO MID CLOUDS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ATL TAF SITES AND THEN LOWER TO MVFR AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CIGS COULD DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE AS
-RA DEVELOPS BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO JUST KEEP
MVFR. GOOD CONSENSUS ON WIND SHIFT WHICH SHOULD BE AROUND 18Z
TODAY TO THE SW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR POTENTIAL LATE THIS EVENING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  35  54  28 /  10  30   0   0
ATLANTA         57  37  51  31 /  10  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     52  31  42  24 /  20  40   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    58  35  47  25 /  20  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        61  42  57  31 /   5  30   5   0
GAINESVILLE     55  35  49  28 /  10  30   0   0
MACON           58  40  56  30 /   5  30   5   0
ROME            58  36  47  26 /  20  40   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  36  52  26 /  10  40   0   0
VIDALIA         63  46  58  34 /   5  30  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291135
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
635 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
GOLDEN ISLES OF GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FORM OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. A LOOK AT THE INITIALIZED
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SHOWS STRONG JET STREAK THROUGH THE ARKLATEX
WHICH IS PUTTING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAST TRACK THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THE RULE AT THIS HOUR.

FOR TODAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING TWO DISTINCT WAVES OF
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT NEITHER ONE
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE LOCAL WRF AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE FIRST IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA BY MID MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FIRST WAVE WILL RESULT IN LOW END
CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT AND HAVE BUMPED UP
VALUES TO MID RANGE CHANCE BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z ROUGHLY AS PRECIP
AXIS TRANSLATES FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
GEORGIA INCLUDING THE ATLANTA METRO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH COLUMN BECOMING SATURATED FROM THE
SURFACE TO 8K FEET AND EVEN WITH MEAGER LIFT...SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT VALUES TO WARRANT CONTINUED CHANCE POPS AS FRONT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH EVERY 6 HR BLOCK FOR THIS EVENT.

FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGH BRIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING FOR A COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW. WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND FOR
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

DEESE

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO MID CLOUDS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ATL TAF SITES AND THEN LOWER TO MVFR AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CIGS COULD DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE AS
-RA DEVELOPS BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO JUST KEEP
MVFR. GOOD CONSENSUS ON WIND SHIFT WHICH SHOULD BE AROUND 18Z
TODAY TO THE SW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR POTENTIAL LATE THIS EVENING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  35  54  28 /  10  30   0   0
ATLANTA         57  37  51  31 /  10  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     52  31  42  24 /  20  40   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    58  35  47  25 /  20  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        61  42  57  31 /   5  30   5   0
GAINESVILLE     55  35  49  28 /  10  30   0   0
MACON           58  40  56  30 /   5  30   5   0
ROME            58  36  47  26 /  20  40   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  36  52  26 /  10  40   0   0
VIDALIA         63  46  58  34 /   5  30  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291135
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
635 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
GOLDEN ISLES OF GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FORM OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. A LOOK AT THE INITIALIZED
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SHOWS STRONG JET STREAK THROUGH THE ARKLATEX
WHICH IS PUTTING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAST TRACK THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THE RULE AT THIS HOUR.

FOR TODAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING TWO DISTINCT WAVES OF
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT NEITHER ONE
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE LOCAL WRF AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE FIRST IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA BY MID MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FIRST WAVE WILL RESULT IN LOW END
CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT AND HAVE BUMPED UP
VALUES TO MID RANGE CHANCE BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z ROUGHLY AS PRECIP
AXIS TRANSLATES FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
GEORGIA INCLUDING THE ATLANTA METRO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH COLUMN BECOMING SATURATED FROM THE
SURFACE TO 8K FEET AND EVEN WITH MEAGER LIFT...SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT VALUES TO WARRANT CONTINUED CHANCE POPS AS FRONT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH EVERY 6 HR BLOCK FOR THIS EVENT.

FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGH BRIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING FOR A COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW. WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND FOR
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

DEESE

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO MID CLOUDS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ATL TAF SITES AND THEN LOWER TO MVFR AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CIGS COULD DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE AS
-RA DEVELOPS BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO JUST KEEP
MVFR. GOOD CONSENSUS ON WIND SHIFT WHICH SHOULD BE AROUND 18Z
TODAY TO THE SW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR POTENTIAL LATE THIS EVENING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  35  54  28 /  10  30   0   0
ATLANTA         57  37  51  31 /  10  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     52  31  42  24 /  20  40   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    58  35  47  25 /  20  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        61  42  57  31 /   5  30   5   0
GAINESVILLE     55  35  49  28 /  10  30   0   0
MACON           58  40  56  30 /   5  30   5   0
ROME            58  36  47  26 /  20  40   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  36  52  26 /  10  40   0   0
VIDALIA         63  46  58  34 /   5  30  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291135
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
635 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
GOLDEN ISLES OF GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FORM OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. A LOOK AT THE INITIALIZED
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SHOWS STRONG JET STREAK THROUGH THE ARKLATEX
WHICH IS PUTTING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAST TRACK THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THE RULE AT THIS HOUR.

FOR TODAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING TWO DISTINCT WAVES OF
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT NEITHER ONE
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE LOCAL WRF AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE FIRST IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA BY MID MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FIRST WAVE WILL RESULT IN LOW END
CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT AND HAVE BUMPED UP
VALUES TO MID RANGE CHANCE BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z ROUGHLY AS PRECIP
AXIS TRANSLATES FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
GEORGIA INCLUDING THE ATLANTA METRO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH COLUMN BECOMING SATURATED FROM THE
SURFACE TO 8K FEET AND EVEN WITH MEAGER LIFT...SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT VALUES TO WARRANT CONTINUED CHANCE POPS AS FRONT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH EVERY 6 HR BLOCK FOR THIS EVENT.

FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGH BRIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING FOR A COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW. WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND FOR
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

DEESE

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO MID CLOUDS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ATL TAF SITES AND THEN LOWER TO MVFR AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CIGS COULD DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE AS
-RA DEVELOPS BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO JUST KEEP
MVFR. GOOD CONSENSUS ON WIND SHIFT WHICH SHOULD BE AROUND 18Z
TODAY TO THE SW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR POTENTIAL LATE THIS EVENING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  35  54  28 /  10  30   0   0
ATLANTA         57  37  51  31 /  10  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     52  31  42  24 /  20  40   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    58  35  47  25 /  20  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        61  42  57  31 /   5  30   5   0
GAINESVILLE     55  35  49  28 /  10  30   0   0
MACON           58  40  56  30 /   5  30   5   0
ROME            58  36  47  26 /  20  40   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  36  52  26 /  10  40   0   0
VIDALIA         63  46  58  34 /   5  30  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290933
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
433 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...TEMPS WILL START OFF CHILLY THIS MORNING FROM A FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE AREA WILL THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE...A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ADVECTING TO THE REGION. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LVL
FORCING EARLY...RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH MID LVL RIDGING
EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
EVENTUALLY WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO AROUND
60 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CIRRUS SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER HEATING
POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE NOSE OF A H25
JET SHIFTS OVER THE AREA.

TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
EVENING...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE...WITH BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE
MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER CLOUD
COVER. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWING IN
ITS WAKE. ANY RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COASTLINE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL RETREAT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. COLD AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
CLEARING SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...AS
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MITIGATED BY THE WARMING
EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER REFLECT THE COOLER AIR MASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SUPPORT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE COASTLINE AND CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH STEADILY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE LOSS
OF THE MORE SOLID DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTH. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT ZERO. THE INSULATING EFFECTS
OF THICKENING SKY COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...MID 30S FAR INLAND TO LOW 40S EAST AND
SOUTH.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SLIPPED OFF THE COASTLINE BY THE
MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH THE PATTERN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING AND
BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH BRIEFLY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE IN THE MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN
QUICKLY MOVES INLAND AND TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WITHIN A PRECIPITATION
GAP BETWEEN THE LIFTING COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL THUS CAP RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 30 PERCENT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PEAKING
IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST POST FROPA AND INCREASE AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR REMAINING WATERS...BUT A LOW CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS REMAINS FOR WATERS BEYOND 10 NM INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE...COULD SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS



000
FXUS62 KCAE 290835
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
335 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM NY SOUTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WV LOOP
SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST TO OUR WEST. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO DROP DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. MOST LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY AT LEAST A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW FREEZING AS OF 06Z.

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OFF FLAT...BUT WILL DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS HAVE SOME
PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DRY TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...DRY COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO START OFF DRY...THEN THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THEN TRACK EAST/NORTHEASTWARDS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD...AND GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GET PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS
BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THE ECMWF BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
PROMOTING CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE REGION
RESULTING IN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE CALM
THROUGH AROUND 15Z THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP TO 10 MPH AFTER
15Z. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 290835
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
335 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM NY SOUTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WV LOOP
SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST TO OUR WEST. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO DROP DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. MOST LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY AT LEAST A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW FREEZING AS OF 06Z.

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OFF FLAT...BUT WILL DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS HAVE SOME
PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DRY TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...DRY COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO START OFF DRY...THEN THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THEN TRACK EAST/NORTHEASTWARDS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD...AND GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GET PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS
BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THE ECMWF BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
PROMOTING CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE REGION
RESULTING IN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE CALM
THROUGH AROUND 15Z THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP TO 10 MPH AFTER
15Z. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 290819
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
319 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
GOLDEN ISLES OF GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FORM OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. A LOOK AT THE INITIALIZED
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SHOWS STRONG JET STREAK THROUGH THE ARKLATEX
WHICH IS PUTTING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAST TRACK THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THE RULE AT THIS HOUR.

FOR TODAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING TWO DISTINCT WAVES OF
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT NEITHER ONE
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE LOCAL WRF AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE FIRST IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA BY MID MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FIRST WAVE WILL RESULT IN LOW END
CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT AND HAVE BUMPED UP
VALUES TO MID RANGE CHANCE BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z ROUGHLY AS PRECIP
AXIS TRANSLATES FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
GEORGIA INCLUDING THE ATLANTA METRO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH COLUMN BECOMING SATURATED FROM THE
SURFACE TO 8K FEET AND EVEN WITH MEAGER LIFT...SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT VALUES TO WARRANT CONTINUED CHANCE POPS AS FRONT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH EVERY 6 HR BLOCK FOR THIS EVENT.

FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGH BRIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING FOR A COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW. WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND FOR
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

DEESE

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO MID CLOUDS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ATL TAF SITES AND THEN LOWER TO MVFR AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CIGS COULD DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE AS
-RA DEVELOPS BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO JUST KEEP
MVFR. GOOD CONSENSUS ON WIND SHIFT WHICH SHOULD BE AROUND 18Z
TODAY TO THE SW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR POTENTIAL LATE THIS EVENING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  35  54  28 /  10  30   0   0
ATLANTA         57  37  51  31 /  10  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     52  31  42  24 /  20  40   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    58  35  47  25 /  20  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        61  42  57  31 /   5  30   5   0
GAINESVILLE     55  35  49  28 /  10  30   0   0
MACON           58  40  56  30 /   5  30   5   0
ROME            58  36  47  26 /  20  40   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  36  52  26 /  10  40   0   0
VIDALIA         63  46  58  34 /   5  30  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 290819
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
319 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
GOLDEN ISLES OF GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FORM OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. A LOOK AT THE INITIALIZED
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SHOWS STRONG JET STREAK THROUGH THE ARKLATEX
WHICH IS PUTTING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAST TRACK THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THE RULE AT THIS HOUR.

FOR TODAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING TWO DISTINCT WAVES OF
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT NEITHER ONE
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE LOCAL WRF AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE FIRST IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA BY MID MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FIRST WAVE WILL RESULT IN LOW END
CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT AND HAVE BUMPED UP
VALUES TO MID RANGE CHANCE BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z ROUGHLY AS PRECIP
AXIS TRANSLATES FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
GEORGIA INCLUDING THE ATLANTA METRO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH COLUMN BECOMING SATURATED FROM THE
SURFACE TO 8K FEET AND EVEN WITH MEAGER LIFT...SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT VALUES TO WARRANT CONTINUED CHANCE POPS AS FRONT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH EVERY 6 HR BLOCK FOR THIS EVENT.

FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGH BRIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING FOR A COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW. WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND FOR
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

DEESE

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO MID CLOUDS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ATL TAF SITES AND THEN LOWER TO MVFR AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CIGS COULD DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE AS
-RA DEVELOPS BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO JUST KEEP
MVFR. GOOD CONSENSUS ON WIND SHIFT WHICH SHOULD BE AROUND 18Z
TODAY TO THE SW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR POTENTIAL LATE THIS EVENING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  35  54  28 /  10  30   0   0
ATLANTA         57  37  51  31 /  10  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     52  31  42  24 /  20  40   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    58  35  47  25 /  20  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        61  42  57  31 /   5  30   5   0
GAINESVILLE     55  35  49  28 /  10  30   0   0
MACON           58  40  56  30 /   5  30   5   0
ROME            58  36  47  26 /  20  40   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  36  52  26 /  10  40   0   0
VIDALIA         63  46  58  34 /   5  30  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE



000
FXUS62 KCAE 290616
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
116 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM NY SOUTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WV LOOP
SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST TO OUR WEST. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO DROP DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. MOST LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY AT LEAST A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW FREEZING AS OF 06Z.

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE E CONUS...IN A
GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE
AHEAD OF IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MINIMAL PRECIP
CHANCES...SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. BEHIND
THE FRONT...DRY COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS TIME PERIOD...AND BOTH ARE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE E
CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MID
TO LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND MON.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LOW NEAR THE
GULF COAST. THIS FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE LOW WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. SO WILL TREND
HIGHER ON TEMPS SUN. RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUN/SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A NEW WAVE FORMING ALONG
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION TUE NT OR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
PROMOTING CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE REGION
RESULTING IN SCT- BKN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE CALM
THROUGH AROUND 15Z THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP TO 10 MPH AFTER
15Z. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 290616
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
116 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR AND WINDS ARE CALM. HAVE MADE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP POTENTIAL TO MATCH
CURRENT DEWPT TRENDS OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA AND
SLIGHT RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME CIRRUS
ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE NOSE OF A H5 JET...TEMPS WILL ALREADY
HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE MID 20S OVER INLAND AREAS...AND LOW TO MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
THE DAY CENTERED ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL STEADILY
SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BRING QUIET WEATHER
WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AND THE
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS IT
DOES...THERE IS A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS...COINCIDENT WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PVA ALOFT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WOULD BE
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS MIXING BEGINS. GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MUCH OF
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NEGATED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER
50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BRING HIGHS LOW TO MID
50S...OR ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SETTLED JUST INLAND FROM
THE COAST...RESULTING IN A NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS
MAINLY AT OR BELOW 15 KTS. WE COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
OVER WARMER WATERS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS AND BEYOND 15 NM IN
NORTHERN SC WATERS. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT IN
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY. IN FACT...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS
POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 290616
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
116 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR AND WINDS ARE CALM. HAVE MADE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP POTENTIAL TO MATCH
CURRENT DEWPT TRENDS OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA AND
SLIGHT RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME CIRRUS
ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE NOSE OF A H5 JET...TEMPS WILL ALREADY
HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE MID 20S OVER INLAND AREAS...AND LOW TO MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
THE DAY CENTERED ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL STEADILY
SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BRING QUIET WEATHER
WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AND THE
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS IT
DOES...THERE IS A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS...COINCIDENT WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PVA ALOFT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WOULD BE
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS MIXING BEGINS. GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MUCH OF
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NEGATED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER
50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BRING HIGHS LOW TO MID
50S...OR ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SETTLED JUST INLAND FROM
THE COAST...RESULTING IN A NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS
MAINLY AT OR BELOW 15 KTS. WE COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
OVER WARMER WATERS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS AND BEYOND 15 NM IN
NORTHERN SC WATERS. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT IN
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY. IN FACT...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS
POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB




000
FXUS62 KFFC 290544
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1244 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 819 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT SE FLOW IS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES
TO THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEW GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY PUTTING THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE BRUSHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED...BUT SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES END UP AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z
LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY EVENING. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS OBVIOUSLY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE SHORT WAVE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH AND BRUSHES THE AREA
DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW EVENING. I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER LAYERS ARE NEAR SATURATED...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. IF FUTURE RUNS COME IN ON
THE LATER/DRIER SIDE...THEN WILL CUT BACK MORE IN FUTURE UPDATES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TREND WITH THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. ECMWF HASNT CUT BACK THAT MUCH ON PRECIP...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TERMS OF POPS AT THIS POINT. HAVE CLEARED PRECIP OUT
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ON MONDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE BRASSTOWN BALD SOUNDING...THE BEST TIMING FOR A
WINTRY MIX WOULD BE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND JUST AFTER AS THE
LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE BUT SFC TEMPS ARE STILL ON THE COOLER
SIDE. WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SUNDAY MORNING AT BRASSTOWN
BALD...MAY BE MORE OF A SLEET MIX THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP...PROFILE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES.

OTHER CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
BELOW...

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE SE AND ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW...BUT
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DROP TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO MID CLOUDS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ATL TAF SITES AND THEN LOWER TO MVFR AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CIGS COULD DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE AS
-RA DEVELOPS BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO JUST KEEP
MVFR. GOOD CONSENSUS ON WIND SHIFT WHICH SHOULD BE AROUND 18Z
TODAY TO THE SW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR POTENTIAL LATE THIS EVENING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  37  54  27 /  10  20   0   0
ATLANTA         55  38  52  30 /  10  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     53  33  44  23 /  20  30   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    55  35  50  25 /  20  30   0   0
COLUMBUS        60  42  58  33 /   5  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     54  36  51  28 /  20  30   5   0
MACON           59  42  58  29 /   5  20   5   0
ROME            55  35  50  25 /  20  20   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  57  38  54  26 /  10  30   0   0
VIDALIA         61  44  58  35 /   0  20   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 290544
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1244 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 819 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT SE FLOW IS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES
TO THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEW GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY PUTTING THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE BRUSHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED...BUT SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES END UP AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z
LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY EVENING. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS OBVIOUSLY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE SHORT WAVE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH AND BRUSHES THE AREA
DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW EVENING. I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER LAYERS ARE NEAR SATURATED...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. IF FUTURE RUNS COME IN ON
THE LATER/DRIER SIDE...THEN WILL CUT BACK MORE IN FUTURE UPDATES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TREND WITH THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. ECMWF HASNT CUT BACK THAT MUCH ON PRECIP...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TERMS OF POPS AT THIS POINT. HAVE CLEARED PRECIP OUT
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ON MONDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE BRASSTOWN BALD SOUNDING...THE BEST TIMING FOR A
WINTRY MIX WOULD BE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND JUST AFTER AS THE
LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE BUT SFC TEMPS ARE STILL ON THE COOLER
SIDE. WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SUNDAY MORNING AT BRASSTOWN
BALD...MAY BE MORE OF A SLEET MIX THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP...PROFILE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES.

OTHER CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
BELOW...

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE SE AND ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW...BUT
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DROP TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO MID CLOUDS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ATL TAF SITES AND THEN LOWER TO MVFR AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CIGS COULD DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE AS
-RA DEVELOPS BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO JUST KEEP
MVFR. GOOD CONSENSUS ON WIND SHIFT WHICH SHOULD BE AROUND 18Z
TODAY TO THE SW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR POTENTIAL LATE THIS EVENING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  37  54  27 /  10  20   0   0
ATLANTA         55  38  52  30 /  10  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     53  33  44  23 /  20  30   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    55  35  50  25 /  20  30   0   0
COLUMBUS        60  42  58  33 /   5  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     54  36  51  28 /  20  30   5   0
MACON           59  42  58  29 /   5  20   5   0
ROME            55  35  50  25 /  20  20   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  57  38  54  26 /  10  30   0   0
VIDALIA         61  44  58  35 /   0  20   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 290544
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1244 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 819 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT SE FLOW IS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES
TO THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEW GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY PUTTING THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE BRUSHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED...BUT SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES END UP AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z
LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY EVENING. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS OBVIOUSLY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE SHORT WAVE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH AND BRUSHES THE AREA
DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW EVENING. I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER LAYERS ARE NEAR SATURATED...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. IF FUTURE RUNS COME IN ON
THE LATER/DRIER SIDE...THEN WILL CUT BACK MORE IN FUTURE UPDATES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TREND WITH THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. ECMWF HASNT CUT BACK THAT MUCH ON PRECIP...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TERMS OF POPS AT THIS POINT. HAVE CLEARED PRECIP OUT
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ON MONDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE BRASSTOWN BALD SOUNDING...THE BEST TIMING FOR A
WINTRY MIX WOULD BE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND JUST AFTER AS THE
LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE BUT SFC TEMPS ARE STILL ON THE COOLER
SIDE. WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SUNDAY MORNING AT BRASSTOWN
BALD...MAY BE MORE OF A SLEET MIX THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP...PROFILE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES.

OTHER CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
BELOW...

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE SE AND ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW...BUT
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DROP TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO MID CLOUDS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ATL TAF SITES AND THEN LOWER TO MVFR AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CIGS COULD DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE AS
-RA DEVELOPS BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO JUST KEEP
MVFR. GOOD CONSENSUS ON WIND SHIFT WHICH SHOULD BE AROUND 18Z
TODAY TO THE SW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR POTENTIAL LATE THIS EVENING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  37  54  27 /  10  20   0   0
ATLANTA         55  38  52  30 /  10  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     53  33  44  23 /  20  30   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    55  35  50  25 /  20  30   0   0
COLUMBUS        60  42  58  33 /   5  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     54  36  51  28 /  20  30   5   0
MACON           59  42  58  29 /   5  20   5   0
ROME            55  35  50  25 /  20  20   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  57  38  54  26 /  10  30   0   0
VIDALIA         61  44  58  35 /   0  20   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 290544
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1244 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 819 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT SE FLOW IS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES
TO THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEW GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY PUTTING THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE BRUSHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED...BUT SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES END UP AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z
LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY EVENING. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS OBVIOUSLY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE SHORT WAVE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH AND BRUSHES THE AREA
DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW EVENING. I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER LAYERS ARE NEAR SATURATED...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. IF FUTURE RUNS COME IN ON
THE LATER/DRIER SIDE...THEN WILL CUT BACK MORE IN FUTURE UPDATES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TREND WITH THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. ECMWF HASNT CUT BACK THAT MUCH ON PRECIP...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TERMS OF POPS AT THIS POINT. HAVE CLEARED PRECIP OUT
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ON MONDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE BRASSTOWN BALD SOUNDING...THE BEST TIMING FOR A
WINTRY MIX WOULD BE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND JUST AFTER AS THE
LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE BUT SFC TEMPS ARE STILL ON THE COOLER
SIDE. WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SUNDAY MORNING AT BRASSTOWN
BALD...MAY BE MORE OF A SLEET MIX THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP...PROFILE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES.

OTHER CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
BELOW...

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE SE AND ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW...BUT
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DROP TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO MID CLOUDS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ATL TAF SITES AND THEN LOWER TO MVFR AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CIGS COULD DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE AS
-RA DEVELOPS BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO JUST KEEP
MVFR. GOOD CONSENSUS ON WIND SHIFT WHICH SHOULD BE AROUND 18Z
TODAY TO THE SW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR POTENTIAL LATE THIS EVENING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  37  54  27 /  10  20   0   0
ATLANTA         55  38  52  30 /  10  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     53  33  44  23 /  20  30   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    55  35  50  25 /  20  30   0   0
COLUMBUS        60  42  58  33 /   5  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     54  36  51  28 /  20  30   5   0
MACON           59  42  58  29 /   5  20   5   0
ROME            55  35  50  25 /  20  20   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  57  38  54  26 /  10  30   0   0
VIDALIA         61  44  58  35 /   0  20   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290233
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
933 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BESIDES A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS THAT MAY MOVE IN LATE...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT/NEARLY CALM WINDS TO PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN A
QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER
20S AWAY FROM THE COAST STILL LOOK REASONABLE. ONGOING FORECAST
WAS IN A GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO REFLECT
LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
THE DAY CENTERED ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL STEADILY
SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BRING QUIET WEATHER
WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AND THE
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS IT
DOES...THERE IS A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS...COINCIDENT WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PVA ALOFT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WOULD BE
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS MIXING BEGINS. GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MUCH OF
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NEGATED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER
50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BRING HIGHS LOW TO MID
50S...OR ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST...
RESULTING IN A NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 15
KT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BY A FOOT OR SO AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY. IN FACT...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS
POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...DPB/WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/JAQ
MARINE...BSH/JAQ




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290233
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
933 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BESIDES A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS THAT MAY MOVE IN LATE...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT/NEARLY CALM WINDS TO PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN A
QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER
20S AWAY FROM THE COAST STILL LOOK REASONABLE. ONGOING FORECAST
WAS IN A GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO REFLECT
LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
THE DAY CENTERED ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL STEADILY
SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BRING QUIET WEATHER
WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AND THE
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS IT
DOES...THERE IS A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS...COINCIDENT WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PVA ALOFT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WOULD BE
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS MIXING BEGINS. GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MUCH OF
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NEGATED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER
50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BRING HIGHS LOW TO MID
50S...OR ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST...
RESULTING IN A NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 15
KT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BY A FOOT OR SO AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY. IN FACT...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS
POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...DPB/WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/JAQ
MARINE...BSH/JAQ



000
FXUS62 KCAE 290126
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
826 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM WV SOUTHWARD TO THE
CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WV LOOP SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST
TO OUR WEST ALLOWING FOR LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S GIVEN NEAR CALM WIND AND DRY
AIRMASS. THE LOCAL RADIATION TECHNIQUE INDICATED 25 DEGREES AT
CAE AND 24 AT AGS. THE NORMALLY COOLER/SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD
DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS MORNING AGS FELL TO 23 AND WOULD
EXPECT TO BE AROUND 22 TO 23 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS OVERNIGHT.

WE MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. IF THESE CLOUDS ARE DENSE
ENOUGH THEY COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE E CONUS...IN A
GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY THURSDAY...AND WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE AHEAD
OF IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS TIME PERIOD...AND BOTH ARE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE E
CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MID
TO LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND MON.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LOW NEAR THE
GULF COAST. THIS FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE LOW WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. SO WILL TREND
HIGHER ON TEMPS SUN. RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUN/SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A NEW WAVE FORMING ALONG
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION TUE NT OR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION RESULTING IN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE
CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH AROUND 15Z THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP
TO 10 MPH AFTER 15Z. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 290126
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
826 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM WV SOUTHWARD TO THE
CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WV LOOP SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST
TO OUR WEST ALLOWING FOR LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S GIVEN NEAR CALM WIND AND DRY
AIRMASS. THE LOCAL RADIATION TECHNIQUE INDICATED 25 DEGREES AT
CAE AND 24 AT AGS. THE NORMALLY COOLER/SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD
DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS MORNING AGS FELL TO 23 AND WOULD
EXPECT TO BE AROUND 22 TO 23 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS OVERNIGHT.

WE MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. IF THESE CLOUDS ARE DENSE
ENOUGH THEY COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE E CONUS...IN A
GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY THURSDAY...AND WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE AHEAD
OF IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS TIME PERIOD...AND BOTH ARE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE E
CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MID
TO LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND MON.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LOW NEAR THE
GULF COAST. THIS FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE LOW WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. SO WILL TREND
HIGHER ON TEMPS SUN. RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUN/SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A NEW WAVE FORMING ALONG
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION TUE NT OR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION RESULTING IN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE
CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH AROUND 15Z THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP
TO 10 MPH AFTER 15Z. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 290126
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
826 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM WV SOUTHWARD TO THE
CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WV LOOP SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST
TO OUR WEST ALLOWING FOR LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S GIVEN NEAR CALM WIND AND DRY
AIRMASS. THE LOCAL RADIATION TECHNIQUE INDICATED 25 DEGREES AT
CAE AND 24 AT AGS. THE NORMALLY COOLER/SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD
DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS MORNING AGS FELL TO 23 AND WOULD
EXPECT TO BE AROUND 22 TO 23 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS OVERNIGHT.

WE MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. IF THESE CLOUDS ARE DENSE
ENOUGH THEY COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE E CONUS...IN A
GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY THURSDAY...AND WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE AHEAD
OF IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS TIME PERIOD...AND BOTH ARE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE E
CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MID
TO LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND MON.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LOW NEAR THE
GULF COAST. THIS FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE LOW WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. SO WILL TREND
HIGHER ON TEMPS SUN. RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUN/SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A NEW WAVE FORMING ALONG
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION TUE NT OR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION RESULTING IN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE
CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH AROUND 15Z THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP
TO 10 MPH AFTER 15Z. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 290126
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
826 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM WV SOUTHWARD TO THE
CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WV LOOP SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST
TO OUR WEST ALLOWING FOR LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S GIVEN NEAR CALM WIND AND DRY
AIRMASS. THE LOCAL RADIATION TECHNIQUE INDICATED 25 DEGREES AT
CAE AND 24 AT AGS. THE NORMALLY COOLER/SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD
DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS MORNING AGS FELL TO 23 AND WOULD
EXPECT TO BE AROUND 22 TO 23 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS OVERNIGHT.

WE MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. IF THESE CLOUDS ARE DENSE
ENOUGH THEY COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE E CONUS...IN A
GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY THURSDAY...AND WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE AHEAD
OF IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS TIME PERIOD...AND BOTH ARE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE E
CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MID
TO LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND MON.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LOW NEAR THE
GULF COAST. THIS FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE LOW WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. SO WILL TREND
HIGHER ON TEMPS SUN. RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUN/SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A NEW WAVE FORMING ALONG
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION TUE NT OR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION RESULTING IN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE
CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH AROUND 15Z THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP
TO 10 MPH AFTER 15Z. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KFFC 290119
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
819 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015



.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT SE FLOW IS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES
TO THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEW GRIDS.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY PUTTING THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE BRUSHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED...BUT SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES END UP AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z
LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY EVENING. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS OBVIOUSLY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE SHORT WAVE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH AND BRUSHES THE AREA
DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW EVENING. I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER LAYERS ARE NEAR SATURATED...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. IF FUTURE RUNS COME IN ON
THE LATER/DRIER SIDE...THEN WILL CUT BACK MORE IN FUTURE UPDATES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TREND WITH THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. ECMWF HASNT CUT BACK THAT MUCH ON PRECIP...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TERMS OF POPS AT THIS POINT. HAVE CLEARED PRECIP OUT
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ON MONDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE BRASSTOWN BALD SOUNDING...THE BEST TIMING FOR A
WINTRY MIX WOULD BE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND JUST AFTER AS THE
LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE BUT SFC TEMPS ARE STILL ON THE COOLER
SIDE. WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SUNDAY MORNING AT BRASSTOWN
BALD...MAY BE MORE OF A SLEET MIX THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP...PROFILE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES.

OTHER CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
BELOW...

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE SE AND ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW...BUT
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DROP TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          30  56  37  54 /   0  10  20   0
ATLANTA         34  55  38  52 /   0  10  30   0
BLAIRSVILLE     28  53  33  44 /   0  20  30   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  55  35  50 /   0  20  30   0
COLUMBUS        34  60  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
GAINESVILLE     34  54  36  51 /   0  20  30   5
MACON           30  59  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
ROME            30  55  35  50 /   0  20  20   0
PEACHTREE CITY  30  57  38  54 /   0  10  30   0
VIDALIA         32  61  44  58 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 290119
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
819 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015



.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT SE FLOW IS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES
TO THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEW GRIDS.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY PUTTING THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE BRUSHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED...BUT SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES END UP AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z
LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY EVENING. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS OBVIOUSLY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE SHORT WAVE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH AND BRUSHES THE AREA
DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW EVENING. I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER LAYERS ARE NEAR SATURATED...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. IF FUTURE RUNS COME IN ON
THE LATER/DRIER SIDE...THEN WILL CUT BACK MORE IN FUTURE UPDATES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TREND WITH THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. ECMWF HASNT CUT BACK THAT MUCH ON PRECIP...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TERMS OF POPS AT THIS POINT. HAVE CLEARED PRECIP OUT
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ON MONDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE BRASSTOWN BALD SOUNDING...THE BEST TIMING FOR A
WINTRY MIX WOULD BE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND JUST AFTER AS THE
LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE BUT SFC TEMPS ARE STILL ON THE COOLER
SIDE. WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SUNDAY MORNING AT BRASSTOWN
BALD...MAY BE MORE OF A SLEET MIX THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP...PROFILE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES.

OTHER CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
BELOW...

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE SE AND ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW...BUT
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DROP TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          30  56  37  54 /   0  10  20   0
ATLANTA         34  55  38  52 /   0  10  30   0
BLAIRSVILLE     28  53  33  44 /   0  20  30   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  55  35  50 /   0  20  30   0
COLUMBUS        34  60  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
GAINESVILLE     34  54  36  51 /   0  20  30   5
MACON           30  59  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
ROME            30  55  35  50 /   0  20  20   0
PEACHTREE CITY  30  57  38  54 /   0  10  30   0
VIDALIA         32  61  44  58 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 290119
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
819 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015



.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT SE FLOW IS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES
TO THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEW GRIDS.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY PUTTING THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE BRUSHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED...BUT SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES END UP AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z
LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY EVENING. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS OBVIOUSLY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE SHORT WAVE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH AND BRUSHES THE AREA
DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW EVENING. I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER LAYERS ARE NEAR SATURATED...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. IF FUTURE RUNS COME IN ON
THE LATER/DRIER SIDE...THEN WILL CUT BACK MORE IN FUTURE UPDATES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TREND WITH THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. ECMWF HASNT CUT BACK THAT MUCH ON PRECIP...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TERMS OF POPS AT THIS POINT. HAVE CLEARED PRECIP OUT
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ON MONDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE BRASSTOWN BALD SOUNDING...THE BEST TIMING FOR A
WINTRY MIX WOULD BE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND JUST AFTER AS THE
LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE BUT SFC TEMPS ARE STILL ON THE COOLER
SIDE. WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SUNDAY MORNING AT BRASSTOWN
BALD...MAY BE MORE OF A SLEET MIX THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP...PROFILE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES.

OTHER CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
BELOW...

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE SE AND ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW...BUT
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DROP TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          30  56  37  54 /   0  10  20   0
ATLANTA         34  55  38  52 /   0  10  30   0
BLAIRSVILLE     28  53  33  44 /   0  20  30   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  55  35  50 /   0  20  30   0
COLUMBUS        34  60  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
GAINESVILLE     34  54  36  51 /   0  20  30   5
MACON           30  59  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
ROME            30  55  35  50 /   0  20  20   0
PEACHTREE CITY  30  57  38  54 /   0  10  30   0
VIDALIA         32  61  44  58 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 290119
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
819 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015



.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT SE FLOW IS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES
TO THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEW GRIDS.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY PUTTING THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE BRUSHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED...BUT SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES END UP AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z
LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY EVENING. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS OBVIOUSLY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE SHORT WAVE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH AND BRUSHES THE AREA
DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW EVENING. I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER LAYERS ARE NEAR SATURATED...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. IF FUTURE RUNS COME IN ON
THE LATER/DRIER SIDE...THEN WILL CUT BACK MORE IN FUTURE UPDATES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TREND WITH THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. ECMWF HASNT CUT BACK THAT MUCH ON PRECIP...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TERMS OF POPS AT THIS POINT. HAVE CLEARED PRECIP OUT
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ON MONDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE BRASSTOWN BALD SOUNDING...THE BEST TIMING FOR A
WINTRY MIX WOULD BE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND JUST AFTER AS THE
LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE BUT SFC TEMPS ARE STILL ON THE COOLER
SIDE. WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SUNDAY MORNING AT BRASSTOWN
BALD...MAY BE MORE OF A SLEET MIX THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP...PROFILE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES.

OTHER CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
BELOW...

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE SE AND ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW...BUT
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DROP TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          30  56  37  54 /   0  10  20   0
ATLANTA         34  55  38  52 /   0  10  30   0
BLAIRSVILLE     28  53  33  44 /   0  20  30   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  55  35  50 /   0  20  30   0
COLUMBUS        34  60  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
GAINESVILLE     34  54  36  51 /   0  20  30   5
MACON           30  59  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
ROME            30  55  35  50 /   0  20  20   0
PEACHTREE CITY  30  57  38  54 /   0  10  30   0
VIDALIA         32  61  44  58 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 290119
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
819 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015



.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT SE FLOW IS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES
TO THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEW GRIDS.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY PUTTING THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE BRUSHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED...BUT SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES END UP AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z
LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY EVENING. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS OBVIOUSLY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE SHORT WAVE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH AND BRUSHES THE AREA
DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW EVENING. I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER LAYERS ARE NEAR SATURATED...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. IF FUTURE RUNS COME IN ON
THE LATER/DRIER SIDE...THEN WILL CUT BACK MORE IN FUTURE UPDATES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TREND WITH THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. ECMWF HASNT CUT BACK THAT MUCH ON PRECIP...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TERMS OF POPS AT THIS POINT. HAVE CLEARED PRECIP OUT
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ON MONDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE BRASSTOWN BALD SOUNDING...THE BEST TIMING FOR A
WINTRY MIX WOULD BE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND JUST AFTER AS THE
LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE BUT SFC TEMPS ARE STILL ON THE COOLER
SIDE. WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SUNDAY MORNING AT BRASSTOWN
BALD...MAY BE MORE OF A SLEET MIX THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP...PROFILE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES.

OTHER CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
BELOW...

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE SE AND ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW...BUT
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DROP TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          30  56  37  54 /   0  10  20   0
ATLANTA         34  55  38  52 /   0  10  30   0
BLAIRSVILLE     28  53  33  44 /   0  20  30   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  55  35  50 /   0  20  30   0
COLUMBUS        34  60  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
GAINESVILLE     34  54  36  51 /   0  20  30   5
MACON           30  59  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
ROME            30  55  35  50 /   0  20  20   0
PEACHTREE CITY  30  57  38  54 /   0  10  30   0
VIDALIA         32  61  44  58 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 290119
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
819 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015



.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT SE FLOW IS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES
TO THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEW GRIDS.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY PUTTING THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE BRUSHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED...BUT SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES END UP AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z
LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY EVENING. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS OBVIOUSLY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE SHORT WAVE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH AND BRUSHES THE AREA
DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW EVENING. I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER LAYERS ARE NEAR SATURATED...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. IF FUTURE RUNS COME IN ON
THE LATER/DRIER SIDE...THEN WILL CUT BACK MORE IN FUTURE UPDATES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TREND WITH THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. ECMWF HASNT CUT BACK THAT MUCH ON PRECIP...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TERMS OF POPS AT THIS POINT. HAVE CLEARED PRECIP OUT
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ON MONDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE BRASSTOWN BALD SOUNDING...THE BEST TIMING FOR A
WINTRY MIX WOULD BE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND JUST AFTER AS THE
LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE BUT SFC TEMPS ARE STILL ON THE COOLER
SIDE. WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SUNDAY MORNING AT BRASSTOWN
BALD...MAY BE MORE OF A SLEET MIX THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP...PROFILE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES.

OTHER CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
BELOW...

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE SE AND ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW...BUT
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DROP TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          30  56  37  54 /   0  10  20   0
ATLANTA         34  55  38  52 /   0  10  30   0
BLAIRSVILLE     28  53  33  44 /   0  20  30   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  55  35  50 /   0  20  30   0
COLUMBUS        34  60  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
GAINESVILLE     34  54  36  51 /   0  20  30   5
MACON           30  59  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
ROME            30  55  35  50 /   0  20  20   0
PEACHTREE CITY  30  57  38  54 /   0  10  30   0
VIDALIA         32  61  44  58 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290012
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
712 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF
COAST WILL BUILD EAST INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR. EARLY AFTERNOON
READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 40S ARE WELL ON THE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S GIVEN
NEAR CALM WIND AND DRY AIRMASS. THE LOCAL RADIATION TECHNIQUE
INDICATED 24 DEGREES AT CAE AND 23 AT AGS. THE NORMALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

WE MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. IF THESE CLOUDS ARE DENSE
ENOUGH THEY COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE E CONUS...IN A
GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY THURSDAY...AND WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE AHEAD
OF IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS TIME PERIOD...AND BOTH ARE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE E
CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MID
TO LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND MON.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LOW NEAR THE
GULF COAST. THIS FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE LOW WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. SO WILL TREND
HIGHER ON TEMPS SUN. RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUN/SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A NEW WAVE FORMING ALONG
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION TUE NT OR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION RESULTING IN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE
CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH AROUND 15Z THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP
TO 10 MPH AFTER 15Z.  THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 290012
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
712 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF
COAST WILL BUILD EAST INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR. EARLY AFTERNOON
READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 40S ARE WELL ON THE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S GIVEN
NEAR CALM WIND AND DRY AIRMASS. THE LOCAL RADIATION TECHNIQUE
INDICATED 24 DEGREES AT CAE AND 23 AT AGS. THE NORMALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

WE MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. IF THESE CLOUDS ARE DENSE
ENOUGH THEY COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE E CONUS...IN A
GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY THURSDAY...AND WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE AHEAD
OF IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS TIME PERIOD...AND BOTH ARE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE E
CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MID
TO LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND MON.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LOW NEAR THE
GULF COAST. THIS FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE LOW WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. SO WILL TREND
HIGHER ON TEMPS SUN. RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUN/SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A NEW WAVE FORMING ALONG
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION TUE NT OR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION RESULTING IN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE
CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH AROUND 15Z THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP
TO 10 MPH AFTER 15Z.  THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 290012
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
712 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF
COAST WILL BUILD EAST INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR. EARLY AFTERNOON
READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 40S ARE WELL ON THE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S GIVEN
NEAR CALM WIND AND DRY AIRMASS. THE LOCAL RADIATION TECHNIQUE
INDICATED 24 DEGREES AT CAE AND 23 AT AGS. THE NORMALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

WE MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. IF THESE CLOUDS ARE DENSE
ENOUGH THEY COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE E CONUS...IN A
GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY THURSDAY...AND WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE AHEAD
OF IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS TIME PERIOD...AND BOTH ARE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE E
CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MID
TO LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND MON.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LOW NEAR THE
GULF COAST. THIS FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE LOW WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. SO WILL TREND
HIGHER ON TEMPS SUN. RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUN/SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A NEW WAVE FORMING ALONG
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION TUE NT OR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION RESULTING IN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE
CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH AROUND 15Z THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP
TO 10 MPH AFTER 15Z.  THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 290012
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
712 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF
COAST WILL BUILD EAST INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR. EARLY AFTERNOON
READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 40S ARE WELL ON THE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S GIVEN
NEAR CALM WIND AND DRY AIRMASS. THE LOCAL RADIATION TECHNIQUE
INDICATED 24 DEGREES AT CAE AND 23 AT AGS. THE NORMALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

WE MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. IF THESE CLOUDS ARE DENSE
ENOUGH THEY COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE E CONUS...IN A
GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY THURSDAY...AND WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE AHEAD
OF IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS TIME PERIOD...AND BOTH ARE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE E
CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MID
TO LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND MON.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LOW NEAR THE
GULF COAST. THIS FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE LOW WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. SO WILL TREND
HIGHER ON TEMPS SUN. RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUN/SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A NEW WAVE FORMING ALONG
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION TUE NT OR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION RESULTING IN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE
CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH AROUND 15Z THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP
TO 10 MPH AFTER 15Z.  THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 282333
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
633 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY PUTTING THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE BRUSHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED...BUT SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES END UP AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z
LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY EVENING. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS OBVIOUSLY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE SHORT WAVE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH AND BRUSHES THE AREA
DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW EVENING. I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER LAYERS ARE NEAR SATURATED...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. IF FUTURE RUNS COME IN ON
THE LATER/DRIER SIDE...THEN WILL CUT BACK MORE IN FUTURE UPDATES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TREND WITH THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. ECMWF HASNT CUT BACK THAT MUCH ON PRECIP...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TERMS OF POPS AT THIS POINT. HAVE CLEARED PRECIP OUT
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ON MONDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE BRASSTOWN BALD SOUNDING...THE BEST TIMING FOR A
WINTRY MIX WOULD BE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND JUST AFTER AS THE
LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE BUT SFC TEMPS ARE STILL ON THE COOLER
SIDE. WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SUNDAY MORNING AT BRASSTOWN
BALD...MAY BE MORE OF A SLEET MIX THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP...PROFILE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES.

OTHER CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
BELOW...

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE SE AND ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW...BUT
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DROP TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          30  56  37  54 /   0  10  20   0
ATLANTA         34  55  38  52 /   0  10  30   0
BLAIRSVILLE     28  53  33  44 /   0  20  30   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  55  35  50 /   0  20  30   0
COLUMBUS        34  60  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
GAINESVILLE     34  54  36  51 /   0  20  30   5
MACON           30  59  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
ROME            30  55  35  50 /   0  20  20   0
PEACHTREE CITY  30  57  38  54 /   0  10  30   0
VIDALIA         32  61  44  58 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 282333
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
633 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY PUTTING THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE BRUSHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED...BUT SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES END UP AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z
LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY EVENING. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS OBVIOUSLY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE SHORT WAVE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH AND BRUSHES THE AREA
DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW EVENING. I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER LAYERS ARE NEAR SATURATED...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. IF FUTURE RUNS COME IN ON
THE LATER/DRIER SIDE...THEN WILL CUT BACK MORE IN FUTURE UPDATES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TREND WITH THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. ECMWF HASNT CUT BACK THAT MUCH ON PRECIP...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TERMS OF POPS AT THIS POINT. HAVE CLEARED PRECIP OUT
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ON MONDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE BRASSTOWN BALD SOUNDING...THE BEST TIMING FOR A
WINTRY MIX WOULD BE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND JUST AFTER AS THE
LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE BUT SFC TEMPS ARE STILL ON THE COOLER
SIDE. WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SUNDAY MORNING AT BRASSTOWN
BALD...MAY BE MORE OF A SLEET MIX THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP...PROFILE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES.

OTHER CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
BELOW...

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE SE AND ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW...BUT
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DROP TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          30  56  37  54 /   0  10  20   0
ATLANTA         34  55  38  52 /   0  10  30   0
BLAIRSVILLE     28  53  33  44 /   0  20  30   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  55  35  50 /   0  20  30   0
COLUMBUS        34  60  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
GAINESVILLE     34  54  36  51 /   0  20  30   5
MACON           30  59  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
ROME            30  55  35  50 /   0  20  20   0
PEACHTREE CITY  30  57  38  54 /   0  10  30   0
VIDALIA         32  61  44  58 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 282333
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
633 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY PUTTING THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE BRUSHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED...BUT SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES END UP AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z
LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY EVENING. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS OBVIOUSLY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE SHORT WAVE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH AND BRUSHES THE AREA
DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW EVENING. I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER LAYERS ARE NEAR SATURATED...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. IF FUTURE RUNS COME IN ON
THE LATER/DRIER SIDE...THEN WILL CUT BACK MORE IN FUTURE UPDATES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TREND WITH THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. ECMWF HASNT CUT BACK THAT MUCH ON PRECIP...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TERMS OF POPS AT THIS POINT. HAVE CLEARED PRECIP OUT
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ON MONDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE BRASSTOWN BALD SOUNDING...THE BEST TIMING FOR A
WINTRY MIX WOULD BE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND JUST AFTER AS THE
LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE BUT SFC TEMPS ARE STILL ON THE COOLER
SIDE. WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SUNDAY MORNING AT BRASSTOWN
BALD...MAY BE MORE OF A SLEET MIX THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP...PROFILE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES.

OTHER CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
BELOW...

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE SE AND ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW...BUT
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DROP TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          30  56  37  54 /   0  10  20   0
ATLANTA         34  55  38  52 /   0  10  30   0
BLAIRSVILLE     28  53  33  44 /   0  20  30   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  55  35  50 /   0  20  30   0
COLUMBUS        34  60  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
GAINESVILLE     34  54  36  51 /   0  20  30   5
MACON           30  59  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
ROME            30  55  35  50 /   0  20  20   0
PEACHTREE CITY  30  57  38  54 /   0  10  30   0
VIDALIA         32  61  44  58 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 282333
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
633 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY PUTTING THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE BRUSHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED...BUT SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES END UP AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z
LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY EVENING. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS OBVIOUSLY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE SHORT WAVE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH AND BRUSHES THE AREA
DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW EVENING. I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER LAYERS ARE NEAR SATURATED...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. IF FUTURE RUNS COME IN ON
THE LATER/DRIER SIDE...THEN WILL CUT BACK MORE IN FUTURE UPDATES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TREND WITH THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. ECMWF HASNT CUT BACK THAT MUCH ON PRECIP...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TERMS OF POPS AT THIS POINT. HAVE CLEARED PRECIP OUT
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ON MONDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE BRASSTOWN BALD SOUNDING...THE BEST TIMING FOR A
WINTRY MIX WOULD BE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND JUST AFTER AS THE
LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE BUT SFC TEMPS ARE STILL ON THE COOLER
SIDE. WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SUNDAY MORNING AT BRASSTOWN
BALD...MAY BE MORE OF A SLEET MIX THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP...PROFILE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES.

OTHER CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
BELOW...

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE SE AND ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW...BUT
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DROP TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          30  56  37  54 /   0  10  20   0
ATLANTA         34  55  38  52 /   0  10  30   0
BLAIRSVILLE     28  53  33  44 /   0  20  30   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  55  35  50 /   0  20  30   0
COLUMBUS        34  60  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
GAINESVILLE     34  54  36  51 /   0  20  30   5
MACON           30  59  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
ROME            30  55  35  50 /   0  20  20   0
PEACHTREE CITY  30  57  38  54 /   0  10  30   0
VIDALIA         32  61  44  58 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KCHS 282324
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
624 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
I MADE AN EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT IN
THE GRIDS. 18Z GUIDANCE TRENDED LOWER...AND IT LOOKS LIKE ANY
MEANINGFUL CIRRUS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
THE DAY CENTERED ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL STEADILY
SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BRING QUIET WEATHER
WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AND THE
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS IT
DOES...THERE IS A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS...COINCIDENT WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PVA ALOFT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WOULD BE
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS MIXING BEGINS. GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MUCH OF
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NEGATED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER
50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BRING HIGHS LOW TO MID
50S...OR ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST...
RESULTING IN A NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 15
KT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BY A FOOT OR SO AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY. IN FACT...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS
POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FWA
SHORT TERM...DPB/WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/JAQ
MARINE...BSH/JAQ



000
FXUS62 KCHS 282324
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
624 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
I MADE AN EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT IN
THE GRIDS. 18Z GUIDANCE TRENDED LOWER...AND IT LOOKS LIKE ANY
MEANINGFUL CIRRUS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
THE DAY CENTERED ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL STEADILY
SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BRING QUIET WEATHER
WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AND THE
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS IT
DOES...THERE IS A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS...COINCIDENT WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PVA ALOFT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WOULD BE
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS MIXING BEGINS. GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MUCH OF
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NEGATED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER
50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BRING HIGHS LOW TO MID
50S...OR ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST...
RESULTING IN A NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 15
KT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BY A FOOT OR SO AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY. IN FACT...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS
POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FWA
SHORT TERM...DPB/WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/JAQ
MARINE...BSH/JAQ




000
FXUS62 KCHS 282115
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
415 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND
OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE ALONG THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES.

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THEN SOME
CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO SPILL OVER THE APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS
RESULTING IN A LATE NIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT WIND
FIELDS AND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT WILL RESULT
IN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S FOR LOWS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
THE DAY CENTERED ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL STEADILY
SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BRING QUIET WEATHER
WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AND THE
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS IT
DOES...THERE IS A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS...COINCIDENT WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PVA ALOFT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WOULD BE
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS MIXING BEGINS. GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MUCH OF
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NEGATED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER
50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BRING HIGHS LOW TO MID
50S...OR ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST...
RESULTING IN A NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 15
KT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BY A FOOT OR SO AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY. IN FACT...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS
POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...JAQ/BSH



000
FXUS62 KCHS 282115
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
415 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND
OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE ALONG THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES.

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THEN SOME
CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO SPILL OVER THE APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS
RESULTING IN A LATE NIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT WIND
FIELDS AND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT WILL RESULT
IN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S FOR LOWS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
THE DAY CENTERED ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL STEADILY
SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BRING QUIET WEATHER
WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AND THE
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS IT
DOES...THERE IS A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS...COINCIDENT WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PVA ALOFT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WOULD BE
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS MIXING BEGINS. GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MUCH OF
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NEGATED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER
50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BRING HIGHS LOW TO MID
50S...OR ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST...
RESULTING IN A NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 15
KT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BY A FOOT OR SO AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY. IN FACT...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS
POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...JAQ/BSH




000
FXUS62 KFFC 281951
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
251 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY PUTTING THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE BRUSHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED...BUT SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES END UP AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z
LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY EVENING. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS OBVIOUSLY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE SHORT WAVE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH AND BRUSHES THE AREA
DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW EVENING. I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

20


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER LAYERS ARE NEAR SATURATED...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. IF FUTURE RUNS COME IN ON
THE LATER/DRIER SIDE...THEN WILL CUT BACK MORE IN FUTURE UPDATES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TREND WITH THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. ECMWF HASNT CUT BACK THAT MUCH ON PRECIP...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TERMS OF POPS AT THIS POINT. HAVE CLEARED PRECIP OUT
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ON MONDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE BRASSTOWN BALD SOUNDING...THE BEST TIMING FOR A
WINTRY MIX WOULD BE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND JUST AFTER AS THE
LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE BUT SFC TEMPS ARE STILL ON THE COOLER
SIDE. WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SUNDAY MORNING AT BRASSTOWN
BALD...MAY BE MORE OF A SLEET MIX THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP...PROFILE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES.

OTHER CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
BELOW...

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH 12Z THEN INCREASING
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. CEILINGS 9-12KFT BY 12-15Z AND 6-9KFT
AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...6KTS OR LESS...AND QUITE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH 12Z...THEN INCREASE TO 6-10KT BY 15-
18Z FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

HIGH CONFIDENCE MOST ELEMENTS...ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND
DIRECTIONS THROUGH 12Z.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          30  56  37  54 /   0  10  20   0
ATLANTA         34  55  38  52 /   0  10  30   0
BLAIRSVILLE     28  53  33  44 /   0  20  30   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  55  35  50 /   0  20  30   0
COLUMBUS        34  60  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
GAINESVILLE     34  54  36  51 /   0  20  30   5
MACON           30  59  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
ROME            30  55  35  50 /   0  20  20   0
PEACHTREE CITY  30  57  38  54 /   0  10  30   0
VIDALIA         32  61  44  58 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...20



000
FXUS62 KFFC 281951
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
251 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY PUTTING THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE BRUSHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED...BUT SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES END UP AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z
LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY EVENING. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS OBVIOUSLY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE SHORT WAVE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH AND BRUSHES THE AREA
DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW EVENING. I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

20


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER LAYERS ARE NEAR SATURATED...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. IF FUTURE RUNS COME IN ON
THE LATER/DRIER SIDE...THEN WILL CUT BACK MORE IN FUTURE UPDATES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TREND WITH THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. ECMWF HASNT CUT BACK THAT MUCH ON PRECIP...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TERMS OF POPS AT THIS POINT. HAVE CLEARED PRECIP OUT
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ON MONDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE BRASSTOWN BALD SOUNDING...THE BEST TIMING FOR A
WINTRY MIX WOULD BE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND JUST AFTER AS THE
LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE BUT SFC TEMPS ARE STILL ON THE COOLER
SIDE. WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SUNDAY MORNING AT BRASSTOWN
BALD...MAY BE MORE OF A SLEET MIX THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP...PROFILE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES.

OTHER CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
BELOW...

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH 12Z THEN INCREASING
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. CEILINGS 9-12KFT BY 12-15Z AND 6-9KFT
AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...6KTS OR LESS...AND QUITE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH 12Z...THEN INCREASE TO 6-10KT BY 15-
18Z FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

HIGH CONFIDENCE MOST ELEMENTS...ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND
DIRECTIONS THROUGH 12Z.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          30  56  37  54 /   0  10  20   0
ATLANTA         34  55  38  52 /   0  10  30   0
BLAIRSVILLE     28  53  33  44 /   0  20  30   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  55  35  50 /   0  20  30   0
COLUMBUS        34  60  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
GAINESVILLE     34  54  36  51 /   0  20  30   5
MACON           30  59  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
ROME            30  55  35  50 /   0  20  20   0
PEACHTREE CITY  30  57  38  54 /   0  10  30   0
VIDALIA         32  61  44  58 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281809
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
109 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST
SEABOARD...WITH SLIGHT MID LVL RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE
COMBINATION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI- COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST
AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB/JAQ
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...JAQ/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281809
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
109 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST
SEABOARD...WITH SLIGHT MID LVL RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE
COMBINATION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI- COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST
AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB/JAQ
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...JAQ/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS



000
FXUS62 KFFC 281802 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
100 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATUS ACROSS
MAINLY FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST GA AND TRYING TO SPREAD SOUTH
INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL GA. WITH MORNING TEMPS ACROSS THIS AREA
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S... A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS... BUT NOTHING OF CONCERN OR IMPACT THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE MORNING CLOUDS TO QUICKLY ERODE... LEAVING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A NICE WARMUP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE OHIO AND MS VALLEYS DRIFTING EAST AND SETTLING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW BY EARLY THURSDAY... OUT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE MS VALLEY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS REMAIN LIMITED...
SUGGESTING ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
LIMITED MOISTURE AND EXPECTED LIGHT/PATCHY PRECIP WILL ONLY WARRANT
A LOW CHANCE OF POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS THERE DIP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HOWEVER... ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE... MAYBE A DUSTING ON GRASSY/EXPOSED
SURFACES IN ELEVATIONS AT OR ABOVE 2000 FT AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY WITH LATER MODEL RUNS... SO STAY
TUNED.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TODAY... THEN ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP BACK DOWN AROUND
FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR MOST OF NORTH GA... AND UPPER 30S TO MID
40S ACROSS CENTRAL GA.

39

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FUELS ARE STILL WET AND MAY
NOT DRY ENOUGH BY THEN. SO AT THIS TIME...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AFTER MORNING TRENDS.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE RH VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NO FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH 12Z THEN INCREASING
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. CEILINGS 9-12KFT BY 12-15Z AND 6-9KFT
AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...6KTS OR LESS...AND QUITE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH 12Z...THEN INCREASE TO 6-10KT BY 15-
18Z FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

HIGH CONFIDENCE MOST ELEMENTS...ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND
DIRECTIONS THROUGH 12Z.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  30  54  36 /   0   5  10  20
ATLANTA         52  33  56  37 /   0   5  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     49  29  49  32 /   0   5  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    51  31  55  35 /   0   5  20  20
COLUMBUS        55  33  61  41 /   0   0   5  20
GAINESVILLE     52  31  53  36 /   0   5  10  20
MACON           54  31  59  40 /   0   0   5  20
ROME            52  31  56  35 /   0   5  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  53  31  57  37 /   0   5  10  20
VIDALIA         53  31  62  45 /   0   5   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...39




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281748
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1248 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF
COAST WILL BUILD EAST INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR. EARLY AFTERNOON
READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 40S ARE WELL ON THE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S GIVEN
NEAR CALM WIND AND DRY AIRMASS. THE LOCAL RADIATION TECHNIQUE
INDICATED 24 DEGREES AT CAE AND 23 AT AGS. THE NORMALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

WE MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. IF THESE CLOUDS ARE DENSE
ENOUGH THEY COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE E CONUS...IN A
GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY THURSDAY...AND WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE AHEAD
OF IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS TIME PERIOD...AND BOTH ARE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE E
CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MID
TO LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND MON.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LOW NEAR THE
GULF COAST. THIS FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE LOW WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. SO WILL TREND
HIGHER ON TEMPS SUN. RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUN/SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A NEW WAVE FORMING ALONG
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION TUE NT OR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING AROUND DAWN ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE TAF SITES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING NEAR CALM AROUND SUNSET. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 281748
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1248 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF
COAST WILL BUILD EAST INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR. EARLY AFTERNOON
READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 40S ARE WELL ON THE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S GIVEN
NEAR CALM WIND AND DRY AIRMASS. THE LOCAL RADIATION TECHNIQUE
INDICATED 24 DEGREES AT CAE AND 23 AT AGS. THE NORMALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

WE MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. IF THESE CLOUDS ARE DENSE
ENOUGH THEY COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE E CONUS...IN A
GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY THURSDAY...AND WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE AHEAD
OF IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS TIME PERIOD...AND BOTH ARE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE E
CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MID
TO LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND MON.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LOW NEAR THE
GULF COAST. THIS FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE LOW WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. SO WILL TREND
HIGHER ON TEMPS SUN. RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUN/SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A NEW WAVE FORMING ALONG
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION TUE NT OR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING AROUND DAWN ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE TAF SITES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING NEAR CALM AROUND SUNSET. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 281447
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
947 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
SIGNFICANT CHANGES NEEDED LATE THIS MORNING.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH
SLIGHT MID LVL RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTH WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-
COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB/JAQ
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281447
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
947 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
SIGNFICANT CHANGES NEEDED LATE THIS MORNING.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH
SLIGHT MID LVL RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTH WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-
COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB/JAQ
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281447
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
947 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
SIGNFICANT CHANGES NEEDED LATE THIS MORNING.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH
SLIGHT MID LVL RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTH WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-
COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB/JAQ
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281447
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
947 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
SIGNFICANT CHANGES NEEDED LATE THIS MORNING.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH
SLIGHT MID LVL RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTH WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-
COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB/JAQ
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281447
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
947 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
SIGNFICANT CHANGES NEEDED LATE THIS MORNING.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH
SLIGHT MID LVL RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTH WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-
COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB/JAQ
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281447
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
947 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
SIGNFICANT CHANGES NEEDED LATE THIS MORNING.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH
SLIGHT MID LVL RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTH WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-
COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB/JAQ
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS



000
FXUS62 KCAE 281439
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
939 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF
COAST WILL BUILD EAST INTO OUR AREA TODAY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR.

THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 15
KNOTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY/S VERIFICATION SUPPORTS
THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. STRONG NET
RADIATIONAL COOLING FAVORS THE LOWER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO START
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BOTH WILL SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AND MOVING OFF THE COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. DRIER AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
MIDWESTERN STATES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 20S NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTING
EAST. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING EARLY SUNDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
AND A WEAK WEDGE SETS UP. LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND SHOWS A DEEPER LOW THAN THE ECMWF.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE LIKELY POPS MONDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.4 INCHES. DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE
REGION BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTHEAST. TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE FURTHER REALIZED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN TERMS OF THE
OVERALL PATTER...BOTH GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT STALLING TO OUR SOUTH
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AND SHIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS FLORIDA AND MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES TODAY. COULD SEE HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE TAF SITES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE
NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 281439
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
939 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF
COAST WILL BUILD EAST INTO OUR AREA TODAY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR.

THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 15
KNOTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY/S VERIFICATION SUPPORTS
THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. STRONG NET
RADIATIONAL COOLING FAVORS THE LOWER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO START
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BOTH WILL SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AND MOVING OFF THE COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. DRIER AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
MIDWESTERN STATES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 20S NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTING
EAST. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING EARLY SUNDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
AND A WEAK WEDGE SETS UP. LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND SHOWS A DEEPER LOW THAN THE ECMWF.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE LIKELY POPS MONDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.4 INCHES. DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE
REGION BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTHEAST. TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE FURTHER REALIZED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN TERMS OF THE
OVERALL PATTER...BOTH GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT STALLING TO OUR SOUTH
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AND SHIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS FLORIDA AND MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

DRY AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES TODAY. COULD SEE HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE TAF SITES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE
NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 281212
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
712 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMP TRENDS DURING LATE MORNING HOURS.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH SLIGHT MID LVL
RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH WILL
CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS



000
FXUS62 KCHS 281212
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
712 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMP TRENDS DURING LATE MORNING HOURS.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH SLIGHT MID LVL
RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH WILL
CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS



000
FXUS62 KCHS 281212
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
712 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMP TRENDS DURING LATE MORNING HOURS.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH SLIGHT MID LVL
RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH WILL
CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS



000
FXUS62 KCHS 281212
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
712 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMP TRENDS DURING LATE MORNING HOURS.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH SLIGHT MID LVL
RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH WILL
CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS



000
FXUS62 KFFC 281128
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
627 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATUS ACROSS
MAINLY FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST GA AND TRYING TO SPREAD SOUTH
INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL GA. WITH MORNING TEMPS ACROSS THIS AREA
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S... A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS... BUT NOTHING OF CONCERN OR IMPACT THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE MORNING CLOUDS TO QUICKLY ERODE... LEAVING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A NICE WARMUP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE OHIO AND MS VALLEYS DRIFTING EAST AND SETTLING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW BY EARLY THURSDAY... OUT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE MS VALLEY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS REMAIN LIMITED...
SUGGESTING ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
LIMITED MOISTURE AND EXPECTED LIGHT/PATCHY PRECIP WILL ONLY WARRANT
A LOW CHANCE OF POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS THERE DIP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HOWEVER... ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE... MAYBE A DUSTING ON GRASSY/EXPOSED
SURFACES IN ELEVATIONS AT OR ABOVE 2000 FT AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY WITH LATER MODEL RUNS... SO STAY
TUNED.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TODAY... THEN ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP BACK DOWN AROUND
FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR MOST OF NORTH GA... AND UPPER 30S TO MID
40S ACROSS CENTRAL GA.

39

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FUELS ARE STILL WET AND MAY
NOT DRY ENOUGH BY THEN. SO AT THIS TIME...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AFTER MORNING TRENDS.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE RH VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NO FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE TODAY... RESULTING IN NEARLY
CALM WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON... MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE A
DIRECTION. BEST GUESS IS NNW WINDS AROUND 5-8KTS THIS MORNING WILL
SWING MORE ESE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS ONLY AROUND 2-5KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SE WIND OR CALM WIND IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT... THEN SSE AROUND 6-7 KTS ON THU.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  30  54  36 /   0   5  10  20
ATLANTA         52  33  56  37 /   0   5  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     49  29  49  32 /   0   5  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    51  31  55  35 /   0   5  20  20
COLUMBUS        55  33  61  41 /   0   0   5  20
GAINESVILLE     52  31  53  36 /   0   5  10  20
MACON           54  31  59  40 /   0   0   5  20
ROME            52  31  56  35 /   0   5  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  53  31  57  37 /   0   5  10  20
VIDALIA         53  31  62  45 /   0   5   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...39



000
FXUS62 KCAE 281050
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
550 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN CAPE COD AND NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST. A PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE AREA AND MUCH LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. USED THE GFS LAMP FOR THE WIND FORECAST. THE NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS EARLY TODAY.
YESTERDAY/S VERIFICATION SUPPORTS THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
TODAY. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING FAVORS THE LOWER GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO START
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BOTH WILL SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AND MOVING OFF THE COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. DRIER AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
MIDWESTERN STATES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 20S NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTING
EAST. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING EARLY SUNDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
AND A WEAK WEDGE SETS UP. LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND SHOWS A DEEPER LOW THAN THE ECMWF.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE LIKELY POPS MONDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.4 INCHES. DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE
REGION BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTHEAST. TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE FURTHER REALIZED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN TERMS OF THE
OVERALL PATTER...BOTH GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT STALLING TO OUR SOUTH
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AND SHIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS FLORIDA AND MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND MUCH LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. USED THE GFS LAMP FOR THE WIND FORECAST.
THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 15
KNOTS EARLY TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 281050
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
550 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN CAPE COD AND NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST. A PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE AREA AND MUCH LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. USED THE GFS LAMP FOR THE WIND FORECAST. THE NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS EARLY TODAY.
YESTERDAY/S VERIFICATION SUPPORTS THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
TODAY. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING FAVORS THE LOWER GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO START
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BOTH WILL SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AND MOVING OFF THE COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. DRIER AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
MIDWESTERN STATES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 20S NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTING
EAST. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING EARLY SUNDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
AND A WEAK WEDGE SETS UP. LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND SHOWS A DEEPER LOW THAN THE ECMWF.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE LIKELY POPS MONDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.4 INCHES. DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE
REGION BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER
NORTHEAST. TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE FURTHER REALIZED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN TERMS OF THE
OVERALL PATTER...BOTH GENERALLY SHOW THE FRONT STALLING TO OUR SOUTH
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AND SHIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS FLORIDA AND MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND MUCH LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. USED THE GFS LAMP FOR THE WIND FORECAST.
THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 15
KNOTS EARLY TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 280948
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
448 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH SLIGHT MID LVL
RIDGING OCCURING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH
WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA TO LOW
50S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET.
IN GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN SOME ENHANCED WINDS
OVER WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...NORTH WINDS SHOULD
GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE
COAST...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN
REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABROAD
WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER COASTAL WATERS.
IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS



000
FXUS62 KCHS 280948
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
448 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH SLIGHT MID LVL
RIDGING OCCURING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH
WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA TO LOW
50S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET.
IN GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN SOME ENHANCED WINDS
OVER WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...NORTH WINDS SHOULD
GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE
COAST...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN
REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABROAD
WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER COASTAL WATERS.
IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280948
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
448 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH SLIGHT MID LVL
RIDGING OCCURING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH
WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA TO LOW
50S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET.
IN GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN SOME ENHANCED WINDS
OVER WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...NORTH WINDS SHOULD
GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE
COAST...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN
REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABROAD
WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER COASTAL WATERS.
IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS



000
FXUS62 KFFC 280928
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATUS ACROSS
MAINLY FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST GA AND TRYING TO SPREAD SOUTH
INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL GA. WITH MORNING TEMPS ACROSS THIS AREA
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S... A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS... BUT NOTHING OF CONCERN OR IMPACT THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE MORNING CLOUDS TO QUICKLY ERODE... LEAVING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A NICE WARMUP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE OHIO AND MS VALLEYS DRIFTING EAST AND SETTLING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW BY EARLY THURSDAY... OUT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE MS VALLEY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS REMAIN LIMITED...
SUGGESTING ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
LIMITED MOISTURE AND EXPECTED LIGHT/PATCHY PRECIP WILL ONLY WARRANT
A LOW CHANCE OF POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS THERE DIP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HOWEVER... ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE... MAYBE A DUSTING ON GRASSY/EXPOSED
SURFACES IN ELEVATIONS AT OR ABOVE 2000 FT AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY WITH LATER MODEL RUNS... SO STAY
TUNED.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TODAY... THEN ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP BACK DOWN AROUND
FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR MOST OF NORTH GA... AND UPPER 30S TO MID
40S ACROSS CENTRAL GA.

39

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FUELS ARE STILL WET AND MAY
NOT DRY ENOUGH BY THEN. SO AT THIS TIME...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AFTER MORNING TRENDS.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE RH VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NO FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS WILL BRUSH THE ATLANTA AIRPORTS THIS MORNING THRU AROUND
09Z... THEN SHOULD RETREAT BACK NORTH OF THE AIRPORTS FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREA OBS SHOW SOME GUSTY NW WINDS STILL OCCURRING
THIS MORNING... BUT THIS SHOULD END ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS RETREAT
NORTH. OTHERWISE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD LATER
TODAY... RESULTING IN NEAR CALM WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON... MAKING
IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE A DIRECTION. BEST GUESS IS THE MORNING NNW
WINDS WILL SWING MORE SE DURING THE AFTERNOON... WITH SPEEDS ONLY
AROUND 2-5KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ESE WIND OR CALM WIND IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  30  54  36 /   0   5  10  20
ATLANTA         52  33  56  37 /   0   5  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     49  29  49  32 /   0   5  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    51  31  55  35 /   0   5  20  20
COLUMBUS        55  33  61  41 /   0   0   5  20
GAINESVILLE     52  31  53  36 /   0   5  10  20
MACON           54  31  59  40 /   0   0   5  20
ROME            52  31  56  35 /   0   5  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  53  31  57  37 /   0   5  10  20
VIDALIA         53  31  62  45 /   0   5   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...39



000
FXUS62 KFFC 280928
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATUS ACROSS
MAINLY FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST GA AND TRYING TO SPREAD SOUTH
INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL GA. WITH MORNING TEMPS ACROSS THIS AREA
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S... A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS... BUT NOTHING OF CONCERN OR IMPACT THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE MORNING CLOUDS TO QUICKLY ERODE... LEAVING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A NICE WARMUP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE OHIO AND MS VALLEYS DRIFTING EAST AND SETTLING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW BY EARLY THURSDAY... OUT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE MS VALLEY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS REMAIN LIMITED...
SUGGESTING ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
LIMITED MOISTURE AND EXPECTED LIGHT/PATCHY PRECIP WILL ONLY WARRANT
A LOW CHANCE OF POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS THERE DIP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HOWEVER... ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE... MAYBE A DUSTING ON GRASSY/EXPOSED
SURFACES IN ELEVATIONS AT OR ABOVE 2000 FT AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY WITH LATER MODEL RUNS... SO STAY
TUNED.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TODAY... THEN ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP BACK DOWN AROUND
FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR MOST OF NORTH GA... AND UPPER 30S TO MID
40S ACROSS CENTRAL GA.

39

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FUELS ARE STILL WET AND MAY
NOT DRY ENOUGH BY THEN. SO AT THIS TIME...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AFTER MORNING TRENDS.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE RH VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NO FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS WILL BRUSH THE ATLANTA AIRPORTS THIS MORNING THRU AROUND
09Z... THEN SHOULD RETREAT BACK NORTH OF THE AIRPORTS FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREA OBS SHOW SOME GUSTY NW WINDS STILL OCCURRING
THIS MORNING... BUT THIS SHOULD END ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS RETREAT
NORTH. OTHERWISE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD LATER
TODAY... RESULTING IN NEAR CALM WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON... MAKING
IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE A DIRECTION. BEST GUESS IS THE MORNING NNW
WINDS WILL SWING MORE SE DURING THE AFTERNOON... WITH SPEEDS ONLY
AROUND 2-5KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ESE WIND OR CALM WIND IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  30  54  36 /   0   5  10  20
ATLANTA         52  33  56  37 /   0   5  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     49  29  49  32 /   0   5  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    51  31  55  35 /   0   5  20  20
COLUMBUS        55  33  61  41 /   0   0   5  20
GAINESVILLE     52  31  53  36 /   0   5  10  20
MACON           54  31  59  40 /   0   0   5  20
ROME            52  31  56  35 /   0   5  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  53  31  57  37 /   0   5  10  20
VIDALIA         53  31  62  45 /   0   5   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...39



000
FXUS62 KFFC 280928
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATUS ACROSS
MAINLY FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST GA AND TRYING TO SPREAD SOUTH
INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL GA. WITH MORNING TEMPS ACROSS THIS AREA
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S... A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS... BUT NOTHING OF CONCERN OR IMPACT THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE MORNING CLOUDS TO QUICKLY ERODE... LEAVING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A NICE WARMUP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE OHIO AND MS VALLEYS DRIFTING EAST AND SETTLING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW BY EARLY THURSDAY... OUT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE MS VALLEY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS REMAIN LIMITED...
SUGGESTING ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
LIMITED MOISTURE AND EXPECTED LIGHT/PATCHY PRECIP WILL ONLY WARRANT
A LOW CHANCE OF POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS THERE DIP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HOWEVER... ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE... MAYBE A DUSTING ON GRASSY/EXPOSED
SURFACES IN ELEVATIONS AT OR ABOVE 2000 FT AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY WITH LATER MODEL RUNS... SO STAY
TUNED.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TODAY... THEN ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP BACK DOWN AROUND
FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR MOST OF NORTH GA... AND UPPER 30S TO MID
40S ACROSS CENTRAL GA.

39

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FUELS ARE STILL WET AND MAY
NOT DRY ENOUGH BY THEN. SO AT THIS TIME...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AFTER MORNING TRENDS.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE RH VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NO FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS WILL BRUSH THE ATLANTA AIRPORTS THIS MORNING THRU AROUND
09Z... THEN SHOULD RETREAT BACK NORTH OF THE AIRPORTS FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREA OBS SHOW SOME GUSTY NW WINDS STILL OCCURRING
THIS MORNING... BUT THIS SHOULD END ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS RETREAT
NORTH. OTHERWISE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD LATER
TODAY... RESULTING IN NEAR CALM WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON... MAKING
IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE A DIRECTION. BEST GUESS IS THE MORNING NNW
WINDS WILL SWING MORE SE DURING THE AFTERNOON... WITH SPEEDS ONLY
AROUND 2-5KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ESE WIND OR CALM WIND IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  30  54  36 /   0   5  10  20
ATLANTA         52  33  56  37 /   0   5  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     49  29  49  32 /   0   5  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    51  31  55  35 /   0   5  20  20
COLUMBUS        55  33  61  41 /   0   0   5  20
GAINESVILLE     52  31  53  36 /   0   5  10  20
MACON           54  31  59  40 /   0   0   5  20
ROME            52  31  56  35 /   0   5  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  53  31  57  37 /   0   5  10  20
VIDALIA         53  31  62  45 /   0   5   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...39



000
FXUS62 KFFC 280928
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATUS ACROSS
MAINLY FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST GA AND TRYING TO SPREAD SOUTH
INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL GA. WITH MORNING TEMPS ACROSS THIS AREA
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S... A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS... BUT NOTHING OF CONCERN OR IMPACT THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE MORNING CLOUDS TO QUICKLY ERODE... LEAVING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A NICE WARMUP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE OHIO AND MS VALLEYS DRIFTING EAST AND SETTLING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW BY EARLY THURSDAY... OUT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE MS VALLEY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS REMAIN LIMITED...
SUGGESTING ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
LIMITED MOISTURE AND EXPECTED LIGHT/PATCHY PRECIP WILL ONLY WARRANT
A LOW CHANCE OF POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS THERE DIP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HOWEVER... ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE... MAYBE A DUSTING ON GRASSY/EXPOSED
SURFACES IN ELEVATIONS AT OR ABOVE 2000 FT AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY WITH LATER MODEL RUNS... SO STAY
TUNED.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TODAY... THEN ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP BACK DOWN AROUND
FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR MOST OF NORTH GA... AND UPPER 30S TO MID
40S ACROSS CENTRAL GA.

39

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FUELS ARE STILL WET AND MAY
NOT DRY ENOUGH BY THEN. SO AT THIS TIME...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AFTER MORNING TRENDS.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE RH VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NO FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS WILL BRUSH THE ATLANTA AIRPORTS THIS MORNING THRU AROUND
09Z... THEN SHOULD RETREAT BACK NORTH OF THE AIRPORTS FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREA OBS SHOW SOME GUSTY NW WINDS STILL OCCURRING
THIS MORNING... BUT THIS SHOULD END ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS RETREAT
NORTH. OTHERWISE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD LATER
TODAY... RESULTING IN NEAR CALM WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON... MAKING
IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE A DIRECTION. BEST GUESS IS THE MORNING NNW
WINDS WILL SWING MORE SE DURING THE AFTERNOON... WITH SPEEDS ONLY
AROUND 2-5KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ESE WIND OR CALM WIND IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  30  54  36 /   0   5  10  20
ATLANTA         52  33  56  37 /   0   5  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     49  29  49  32 /   0   5  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    51  31  55  35 /   0   5  20  20
COLUMBUS        55  33  61  41 /   0   0   5  20
GAINESVILLE     52  31  53  36 /   0   5  10  20
MACON           54  31  59  40 /   0   0   5  20
ROME            52  31  56  35 /   0   5  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  53  31  57  37 /   0   5  10  20
VIDALIA         53  31  62  45 /   0   5   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...39



000
FXUS62 KCHS 280640
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...THEN MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEEKEND...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AS IT BUILDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS INITIALLY TO TEMPERATURES INLAND...SINCE A 5-10 MPH
WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM COOLING OFF QUICKLY. EXPECT TEMPS TO
EVENTUALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID 30S CLOSER TO
THE COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LAST PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY COLD ADVECTION...AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY A CHILLY BUT SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE. 925MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -2C THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE DEPTH OF THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER...AND THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS
RANGING FROM JUST THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES...TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE GEORGIA ZONES. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE SHUT OFF OF COLD ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD...WILL LEAD TO A VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF MOISTURE INCREASES ABOVE 700MB...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 10C AND THUS NO REDUCTION IN
LONGWAVE COOLING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...EXPECT MINS BY DAWN
THURSDAY TO BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 20S
INLAND AND LOW 30S NEAR THE BEACHES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...BUT THE MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS A VERY SHORT WAVELENGTH
AS ANOTHER VORTICITY IMPULSE DROPS ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DRIVE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL HELP DRIVE HIGHS THURSDAY TO MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S...LOW 60S TOWARDS SAVANNAH. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO COOL ADVECTION AND NW FLOW. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGEST THETA-E RIDGING REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE
BEST FORCING STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH. SREF PROBABILITIES PEAK AT
20-30 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT...NOT A SIGNAL TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS. HAVE INHERITED VERY LOW-SCHC POP AND WILL LEAVE THIS
UNCHANGED...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT. MINS
WILL BE ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION ONLY BEGINS VERY
LATE...AND EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 42 WELL NW...TO AROUND 50
AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT WHILE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH A FULL DAY OF INSOLATION SHOULD STILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MAKES A SHIFT ONSHORE...WITH OVERALL
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA POST FROPA. A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DRIFTING BACK NORTH AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LATEST FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A SLIGHT SURGE OF WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS
A FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH...BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD FALL
JUST SHORT OF REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL START THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15-20 KTS EARLY...BUT WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY...CREATING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
CAUSING WINDS TO RISE TO 15-20 KTS FROM THE SW...BEFORE ABRUPTLY
TURNING TO THE NW LATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS INITIALLY WILL
BE 3-4 FT ON THE GUSTY NW WINDS...WITH A FEW 5 FT WAVES STILL
EXPECTED IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THESE WILL FALL TO 1-3 FT
EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY...BEFORE RISING
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
SATURDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER NEARSHORE
WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH AND ONSHORE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT STRENGTHENS WHILE
TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING
COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...THEN OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB/FWA



000
FXUS62 KCHS 280640
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...THEN MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEEKEND...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AS IT BUILDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS INITIALLY TO TEMPERATURES INLAND...SINCE A 5-10 MPH
WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM COOLING OFF QUICKLY. EXPECT TEMPS TO
EVENTUALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID 30S CLOSER TO
THE COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LAST PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY COLD ADVECTION...AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY A CHILLY BUT SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE. 925MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -2C THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE DEPTH OF THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER...AND THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS
RANGING FROM JUST THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES...TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE GEORGIA ZONES. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE SHUT OFF OF COLD ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD...WILL LEAD TO A VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF MOISTURE INCREASES ABOVE 700MB...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 10C AND THUS NO REDUCTION IN
LONGWAVE COOLING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...EXPECT MINS BY DAWN
THURSDAY TO BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 20S
INLAND AND LOW 30S NEAR THE BEACHES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...BUT THE MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS A VERY SHORT WAVELENGTH
AS ANOTHER VORTICITY IMPULSE DROPS ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DRIVE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL HELP DRIVE HIGHS THURSDAY TO MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S...LOW 60S TOWARDS SAVANNAH. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO COOL ADVECTION AND NW FLOW. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGEST THETA-E RIDGING REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE
BEST FORCING STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH. SREF PROBABILITIES PEAK AT
20-30 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT...NOT A SIGNAL TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS. HAVE INHERITED VERY LOW-SCHC POP AND WILL LEAVE THIS
UNCHANGED...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT. MINS
WILL BE ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION ONLY BEGINS VERY
LATE...AND EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 42 WELL NW...TO AROUND 50
AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT WHILE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH A FULL DAY OF INSOLATION SHOULD STILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MAKES A SHIFT ONSHORE...WITH OVERALL
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA POST FROPA. A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DRIFTING BACK NORTH AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LATEST FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A SLIGHT SURGE OF WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS
A FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH...BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD FALL
JUST SHORT OF REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL START THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15-20 KTS EARLY...BUT WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY...CREATING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
CAUSING WINDS TO RISE TO 15-20 KTS FROM THE SW...BEFORE ABRUPTLY
TURNING TO THE NW LATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS INITIALLY WILL
BE 3-4 FT ON THE GUSTY NW WINDS...WITH A FEW 5 FT WAVES STILL
EXPECTED IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THESE WILL FALL TO 1-3 FT
EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY...BEFORE RISING
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
SATURDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER NEARSHORE
WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH AND ONSHORE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT STRENGTHENS WHILE
TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING
COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...THEN OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB/FWA



000
FXUS62 KCHS 280640
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...THEN MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEEKEND...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AS IT BUILDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS INITIALLY TO TEMPERATURES INLAND...SINCE A 5-10 MPH
WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM COOLING OFF QUICKLY. EXPECT TEMPS TO
EVENTUALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID 30S CLOSER TO
THE COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LAST PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY COLD ADVECTION...AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY A CHILLY BUT SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE. 925MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -2C THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE DEPTH OF THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER...AND THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS
RANGING FROM JUST THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES...TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE GEORGIA ZONES. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE SHUT OFF OF COLD ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD...WILL LEAD TO A VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF MOISTURE INCREASES ABOVE 700MB...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 10C AND THUS NO REDUCTION IN
LONGWAVE COOLING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...EXPECT MINS BY DAWN
THURSDAY TO BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 20S
INLAND AND LOW 30S NEAR THE BEACHES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...BUT THE MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS A VERY SHORT WAVELENGTH
AS ANOTHER VORTICITY IMPULSE DROPS ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DRIVE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL HELP DRIVE HIGHS THURSDAY TO MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S...LOW 60S TOWARDS SAVANNAH. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO COOL ADVECTION AND NW FLOW. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGEST THETA-E RIDGING REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE
BEST FORCING STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH. SREF PROBABILITIES PEAK AT
20-30 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT...NOT A SIGNAL TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS. HAVE INHERITED VERY LOW-SCHC POP AND WILL LEAVE THIS
UNCHANGED...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT. MINS
WILL BE ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION ONLY BEGINS VERY
LATE...AND EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 42 WELL NW...TO AROUND 50
AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT WHILE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH A FULL DAY OF INSOLATION SHOULD STILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MAKES A SHIFT ONSHORE...WITH OVERALL
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA POST FROPA. A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DRIFTING BACK NORTH AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LATEST FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A SLIGHT SURGE OF WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS
A FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH...BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD FALL
JUST SHORT OF REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL START THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15-20 KTS EARLY...BUT WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY...CREATING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
CAUSING WINDS TO RISE TO 15-20 KTS FROM THE SW...BEFORE ABRUPTLY
TURNING TO THE NW LATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS INITIALLY WILL
BE 3-4 FT ON THE GUSTY NW WINDS...WITH A FEW 5 FT WAVES STILL
EXPECTED IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THESE WILL FALL TO 1-3 FT
EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY...BEFORE RISING
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
SATURDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER NEARSHORE
WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH AND ONSHORE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT STRENGTHENS WHILE
TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING
COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...THEN OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB/FWA



000
FXUS62 KCHS 280640
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...THEN MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEEKEND...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AS IT BUILDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS INITIALLY TO TEMPERATURES INLAND...SINCE A 5-10 MPH
WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM COOLING OFF QUICKLY. EXPECT TEMPS TO
EVENTUALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID 30S CLOSER TO
THE COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LAST PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY COLD ADVECTION...AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY A CHILLY BUT SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE. 925MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -2C THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE DEPTH OF THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER...AND THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS
RANGING FROM JUST THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES...TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE GEORGIA ZONES. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE SHUT OFF OF COLD ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD...WILL LEAD TO A VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF MOISTURE INCREASES ABOVE 700MB...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 10C AND THUS NO REDUCTION IN
LONGWAVE COOLING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...EXPECT MINS BY DAWN
THURSDAY TO BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 20S
INLAND AND LOW 30S NEAR THE BEACHES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...BUT THE MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS A VERY SHORT WAVELENGTH
AS ANOTHER VORTICITY IMPULSE DROPS ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DRIVE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL HELP DRIVE HIGHS THURSDAY TO MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S...LOW 60S TOWARDS SAVANNAH. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO COOL ADVECTION AND NW FLOW. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGEST THETA-E RIDGING REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE
BEST FORCING STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH. SREF PROBABILITIES PEAK AT
20-30 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT...NOT A SIGNAL TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS. HAVE INHERITED VERY LOW-SCHC POP AND WILL LEAVE THIS
UNCHANGED...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT. MINS
WILL BE ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION ONLY BEGINS VERY
LATE...AND EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 42 WELL NW...TO AROUND 50
AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT WHILE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH A FULL DAY OF INSOLATION SHOULD STILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MAKES A SHIFT ONSHORE...WITH OVERALL
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA POST FROPA. A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DRIFTING BACK NORTH AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LATEST FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A SLIGHT SURGE OF WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS
A FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH...BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD FALL
JUST SHORT OF REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL START THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15-20 KTS EARLY...BUT WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY...CREATING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
CAUSING WINDS TO RISE TO 15-20 KTS FROM THE SW...BEFORE ABRUPTLY
TURNING TO THE NW LATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS INITIALLY WILL
BE 3-4 FT ON THE GUSTY NW WINDS...WITH A FEW 5 FT WAVES STILL
EXPECTED IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THESE WILL FALL TO 1-3 FT
EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY...BEFORE RISING
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
SATURDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER NEARSHORE
WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH AND ONSHORE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT STRENGTHENS WHILE
TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING
COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...THEN OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB/FWA



000
FXUS62 KCHS 280640
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...THEN MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEEKEND...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AS IT BUILDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS INITIALLY TO TEMPERATURES INLAND...SINCE A 5-10 MPH
WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM COOLING OFF QUICKLY. EXPECT TEMPS TO
EVENTUALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID 30S CLOSER TO
THE COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LAST PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY COLD ADVECTION...AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY A CHILLY BUT SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE. 925MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -2C THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE DEPTH OF THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER...AND THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS
RANGING FROM JUST THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES...TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE GEORGIA ZONES. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE SHUT OFF OF COLD ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD...WILL LEAD TO A VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF MOISTURE INCREASES ABOVE 700MB...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 10C AND THUS NO REDUCTION IN
LONGWAVE COOLING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...EXPECT MINS BY DAWN
THURSDAY TO BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 20S
INLAND AND LOW 30S NEAR THE BEACHES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...BUT THE MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS A VERY SHORT WAVELENGTH
AS ANOTHER VORTICITY IMPULSE DROPS ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DRIVE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL HELP DRIVE HIGHS THURSDAY TO MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S...LOW 60S TOWARDS SAVANNAH. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO COOL ADVECTION AND NW FLOW. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGEST THETA-E RIDGING REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE
BEST FORCING STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH. SREF PROBABILITIES PEAK AT
20-30 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT...NOT A SIGNAL TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS. HAVE INHERITED VERY LOW-SCHC POP AND WILL LEAVE THIS
UNCHANGED...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT. MINS
WILL BE ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION ONLY BEGINS VERY
LATE...AND EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 42 WELL NW...TO AROUND 50
AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT WHILE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH A FULL DAY OF INSOLATION SHOULD STILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MAKES A SHIFT ONSHORE...WITH OVERALL
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA POST FROPA. A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DRIFTING BACK NORTH AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LATEST FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A SLIGHT SURGE OF WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS
A FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH...BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD FALL
JUST SHORT OF REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL START THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15-20 KTS EARLY...BUT WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY...CREATING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
CAUSING WINDS TO RISE TO 15-20 KTS FROM THE SW...BEFORE ABRUPTLY
TURNING TO THE NW LATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS INITIALLY WILL
BE 3-4 FT ON THE GUSTY NW WINDS...WITH A FEW 5 FT WAVES STILL
EXPECTED IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THESE WILL FALL TO 1-3 FT
EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY...BEFORE RISING
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
SATURDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER NEARSHORE
WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH AND ONSHORE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT STRENGTHENS WHILE
TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING
COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...THEN OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB/FWA



000
FXUS62 KCHS 280640
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...THEN MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEEKEND...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AS IT BUILDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS INITIALLY TO TEMPERATURES INLAND...SINCE A 5-10 MPH
WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM COOLING OFF QUICKLY. EXPECT TEMPS TO
EVENTUALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID 30S CLOSER TO
THE COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LAST PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY COLD ADVECTION...AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY A CHILLY BUT SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE. 925MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -2C THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE DEPTH OF THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER...AND THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS
RANGING FROM JUST THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES...TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE GEORGIA ZONES. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE SHUT OFF OF COLD ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD...WILL LEAD TO A VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF MOISTURE INCREASES ABOVE 700MB...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 10C AND THUS NO REDUCTION IN
LONGWAVE COOLING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...EXPECT MINS BY DAWN
THURSDAY TO BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 20S
INLAND AND LOW 30S NEAR THE BEACHES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...BUT THE MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS A VERY SHORT WAVELENGTH
AS ANOTHER VORTICITY IMPULSE DROPS ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DRIVE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL HELP DRIVE HIGHS THURSDAY TO MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S...LOW 60S TOWARDS SAVANNAH. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO COOL ADVECTION AND NW FLOW. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGEST THETA-E RIDGING REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE
BEST FORCING STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH. SREF PROBABILITIES PEAK AT
20-30 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT...NOT A SIGNAL TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS. HAVE INHERITED VERY LOW-SCHC POP AND WILL LEAVE THIS
UNCHANGED...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT. MINS
WILL BE ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION ONLY BEGINS VERY
LATE...AND EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 42 WELL NW...TO AROUND 50
AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT WHILE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH A FULL DAY OF INSOLATION SHOULD STILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MAKES A SHIFT ONSHORE...WITH OVERALL
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA POST FROPA. A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DRIFTING BACK NORTH AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LATEST FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A SLIGHT SURGE OF WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS
A FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH...BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD FALL
JUST SHORT OF REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL START THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15-20 KTS EARLY...BUT WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY...CREATING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
CAUSING WINDS TO RISE TO 15-20 KTS FROM THE SW...BEFORE ABRUPTLY
TURNING TO THE NW LATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS INITIALLY WILL
BE 3-4 FT ON THE GUSTY NW WINDS...WITH A FEW 5 FT WAVES STILL
EXPECTED IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THESE WILL FALL TO 1-3 FT
EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY...BEFORE RISING
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
SATURDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER NEARSHORE
WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH AND ONSHORE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT STRENGTHENS WHILE
TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING
COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...THEN OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB/FWA




000
FXUS62 KFFC 280546
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1246 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015


.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 924 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/
COLD AIR STRATO-CU CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN GA THIS EVENING...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND GUSTS
HAVE DECREASED WITH SUNSET...BUT EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AROUND
10MPH OVERNIGHT. TEMPS AND DEWS LOOK ON TRACK. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST NEEDED.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE
WESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA BEYOND
36 HOURS. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH CLOUD COVER ALSO
DECREASING. TEMPERATURES SHOWING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO
WEDNESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF LARGE SCALE CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM.
STILL TWO SYSTEMS TO FOCUS ON. PRECIP SHOULD START LATE ENOUGH ON
THURSDAY TO NOT BE A CONCERN WITH WINTRY WEATHER THURSDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL HOLDING OFF ON THE PRECIP NOT STARTING UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...TEMPS ONLY SUPPORT WINTER
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA...HOWEVER AS MENTIONED BELOW IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
CLOSELY WITH THE WEDGE SET UP. WITH CONTINUING PRECIP AND LOW
TEMPS...HAVE ALSO MENTIONED WINTER PRECIP AGAIN FOR NORTH GEORGIA
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS...

11

/ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/
MODELS CONTINUE TO BECOME IN BETTER PHASE WITH THE MAIN
INFLUENCING FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM. THESE CONSIST OF TWO MAIN
SYSTEMS...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT IS A BIT
MORE MOISTURE STARVED AS WELL AS IT IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE
UPPER FLOW NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS DOWN TO LOW END CHANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON THE MODEL THERMAL
PROFILES BEFORE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE OF MORE CONCERN WITH FUTURE
UPDATES AS A STRONG 1030+MB PARENT SFC HIGH LOOKS TO SET UP A
CLASSICAL CAD WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY...THEN WHILE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING THE WEDGE...THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING OF
PRECIP ONSET. THE GFS ADVECTS MOISTURE FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...BRINGING IN BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD MAKE FOR A MORE INTERESTING SITUATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS BY 12Z SUNDAY WOULD SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF
WINTRY MIX MAINLY INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST. THE FORECAST
OF P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE WEDGE AND TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET FOR THE DEGREE OF DIABATIC
ENHANCEMENT. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE FOR SNOW IN PARTS OF THE
FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS...THOUGH UPDATES MAY NEED TO SHIFT FOCUS
TO NORTHEAST GA AND MIXED P-TYPE POTENTIAL IF MODELS SHOW SOME
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.

BAKER

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FUELS ARE STILL WET AND
MAY NOT DRY ENOUGH BY THEN. SO AT THIS TIME...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS WILL BRUSH THE ATLANTA AIRPORTS THIS MORNING THRU AROUND
09Z... THEN SHOULD RETREAT BACK NORTH OF THE AIRPORTS FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREA OBS SHOW SOME GUSTY NW WINDS STILL OCCURRING
THIS MORNING... BUT THIS SHOULD END ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS RETREAT
NORTH. OTHERWISE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD LATER
TODAY... RESULTING IN NEAR CALM WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON... MAKING
IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE A DIRECTION. BEST GUESS IS THE MORNING NNW
WINDS WILL SWING MORE SE DURING THE AFTERNOON... WITH SPEEDS ONLY
AROUND 2-5KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ESE WIND OR CALM WIND IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          28  52  31  54 /   0   0   5  10
ATLANTA         30  51  35  55 /   0   0   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     26  50  30  49 /   0   0   5  30
CARTERSVILLE    28  51  31  56 /   0   0   5  20
COLUMBUS        33  55  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     29  51  34  52 /   0   0   5  20
MACON           29  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            27  51  30  55 /   0   0   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  28  52  30  57 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         34  54  34  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...39




000
FXUS62 KFFC 280546
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1246 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015


.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 924 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/
COLD AIR STRATO-CU CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN GA THIS EVENING...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND GUSTS
HAVE DECREASED WITH SUNSET...BUT EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AROUND
10MPH OVERNIGHT. TEMPS AND DEWS LOOK ON TRACK. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST NEEDED.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE
WESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA BEYOND
36 HOURS. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH CLOUD COVER ALSO
DECREASING. TEMPERATURES SHOWING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO
WEDNESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF LARGE SCALE CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM.
STILL TWO SYSTEMS TO FOCUS ON. PRECIP SHOULD START LATE ENOUGH ON
THURSDAY TO NOT BE A CONCERN WITH WINTRY WEATHER THURSDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL HOLDING OFF ON THE PRECIP NOT STARTING UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...TEMPS ONLY SUPPORT WINTER
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA...HOWEVER AS MENTIONED BELOW IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
CLOSELY WITH THE WEDGE SET UP. WITH CONTINUING PRECIP AND LOW
TEMPS...HAVE ALSO MENTIONED WINTER PRECIP AGAIN FOR NORTH GEORGIA
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS...

11

/ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/
MODELS CONTINUE TO BECOME IN BETTER PHASE WITH THE MAIN
INFLUENCING FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM. THESE CONSIST OF TWO MAIN
SYSTEMS...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT IS A BIT
MORE MOISTURE STARVED AS WELL AS IT IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE
UPPER FLOW NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS DOWN TO LOW END CHANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON THE MODEL THERMAL
PROFILES BEFORE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE OF MORE CONCERN WITH FUTURE
UPDATES AS A STRONG 1030+MB PARENT SFC HIGH LOOKS TO SET UP A
CLASSICAL CAD WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY...THEN WHILE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING THE WEDGE...THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING OF
PRECIP ONSET. THE GFS ADVECTS MOISTURE FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...BRINGING IN BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD MAKE FOR A MORE INTERESTING SITUATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS BY 12Z SUNDAY WOULD SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF
WINTRY MIX MAINLY INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST. THE FORECAST
OF P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE WEDGE AND TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET FOR THE DEGREE OF DIABATIC
ENHANCEMENT. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE FOR SNOW IN PARTS OF THE
FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS...THOUGH UPDATES MAY NEED TO SHIFT FOCUS
TO NORTHEAST GA AND MIXED P-TYPE POTENTIAL IF MODELS SHOW SOME
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.

BAKER

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FUELS ARE STILL WET AND
MAY NOT DRY ENOUGH BY THEN. SO AT THIS TIME...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS WILL BRUSH THE ATLANTA AIRPORTS THIS MORNING THRU AROUND
09Z... THEN SHOULD RETREAT BACK NORTH OF THE AIRPORTS FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREA OBS SHOW SOME GUSTY NW WINDS STILL OCCURRING
THIS MORNING... BUT THIS SHOULD END ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS RETREAT
NORTH. OTHERWISE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD LATER
TODAY... RESULTING IN NEAR CALM WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON... MAKING
IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE A DIRECTION. BEST GUESS IS THE MORNING NNW
WINDS WILL SWING MORE SE DURING THE AFTERNOON... WITH SPEEDS ONLY
AROUND 2-5KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ESE WIND OR CALM WIND IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          28  52  31  54 /   0   0   5  10
ATLANTA         30  51  35  55 /   0   0   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     26  50  30  49 /   0   0   5  30
CARTERSVILLE    28  51  31  56 /   0   0   5  20
COLUMBUS        33  55  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     29  51  34  52 /   0   0   5  20
MACON           29  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            27  51  30  55 /   0   0   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  28  52  30  57 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         34  54  34  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...39




000
FXUS62 KFFC 280546
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1246 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015


.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 924 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/
COLD AIR STRATO-CU CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN GA THIS EVENING...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND GUSTS
HAVE DECREASED WITH SUNSET...BUT EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AROUND
10MPH OVERNIGHT. TEMPS AND DEWS LOOK ON TRACK. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST NEEDED.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE
WESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA BEYOND
36 HOURS. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH CLOUD COVER ALSO
DECREASING. TEMPERATURES SHOWING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO
WEDNESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF LARGE SCALE CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM.
STILL TWO SYSTEMS TO FOCUS ON. PRECIP SHOULD START LATE ENOUGH ON
THURSDAY TO NOT BE A CONCERN WITH WINTRY WEATHER THURSDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL HOLDING OFF ON THE PRECIP NOT STARTING UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...TEMPS ONLY SUPPORT WINTER
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA...HOWEVER AS MENTIONED BELOW IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
CLOSELY WITH THE WEDGE SET UP. WITH CONTINUING PRECIP AND LOW
TEMPS...HAVE ALSO MENTIONED WINTER PRECIP AGAIN FOR NORTH GEORGIA
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS...

11

/ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/
MODELS CONTINUE TO BECOME IN BETTER PHASE WITH THE MAIN
INFLUENCING FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM. THESE CONSIST OF TWO MAIN
SYSTEMS...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT IS A BIT
MORE MOISTURE STARVED AS WELL AS IT IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE
UPPER FLOW NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS DOWN TO LOW END CHANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON THE MODEL THERMAL
PROFILES BEFORE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE OF MORE CONCERN WITH FUTURE
UPDATES AS A STRONG 1030+MB PARENT SFC HIGH LOOKS TO SET UP A
CLASSICAL CAD WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY...THEN WHILE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING THE WEDGE...THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING OF
PRECIP ONSET. THE GFS ADVECTS MOISTURE FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...BRINGING IN BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD MAKE FOR A MORE INTERESTING SITUATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS BY 12Z SUNDAY WOULD SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF
WINTRY MIX MAINLY INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST. THE FORECAST
OF P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE WEDGE AND TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET FOR THE DEGREE OF DIABATIC
ENHANCEMENT. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE FOR SNOW IN PARTS OF THE
FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS...THOUGH UPDATES MAY NEED TO SHIFT FOCUS
TO NORTHEAST GA AND MIXED P-TYPE POTENTIAL IF MODELS SHOW SOME
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.

BAKER

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FUELS ARE STILL WET AND
MAY NOT DRY ENOUGH BY THEN. SO AT THIS TIME...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS WILL BRUSH THE ATLANTA AIRPORTS THIS MORNING THRU AROUND
09Z... THEN SHOULD RETREAT BACK NORTH OF THE AIRPORTS FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREA OBS SHOW SOME GUSTY NW WINDS STILL OCCURRING
THIS MORNING... BUT THIS SHOULD END ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS RETREAT
NORTH. OTHERWISE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD LATER
TODAY... RESULTING IN NEAR CALM WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON... MAKING
IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE A DIRECTION. BEST GUESS IS THE MORNING NNW
WINDS WILL SWING MORE SE DURING THE AFTERNOON... WITH SPEEDS ONLY
AROUND 2-5KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ESE WIND OR CALM WIND IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          28  52  31  54 /   0   0   5  10
ATLANTA         30  51  35  55 /   0   0   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     26  50  30  49 /   0   0   5  30
CARTERSVILLE    28  51  31  56 /   0   0   5  20
COLUMBUS        33  55  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     29  51  34  52 /   0   0   5  20
MACON           29  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            27  51  30  55 /   0   0   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  28  52  30  57 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         34  54  34  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...39




000
FXUS62 KFFC 280546
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1246 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015


.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 924 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/
COLD AIR STRATO-CU CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN GA THIS EVENING...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND GUSTS
HAVE DECREASED WITH SUNSET...BUT EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AROUND
10MPH OVERNIGHT. TEMPS AND DEWS LOOK ON TRACK. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST NEEDED.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE
WESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA BEYOND
36 HOURS. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH CLOUD COVER ALSO
DECREASING. TEMPERATURES SHOWING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO
WEDNESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF LARGE SCALE CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM.
STILL TWO SYSTEMS TO FOCUS ON. PRECIP SHOULD START LATE ENOUGH ON
THURSDAY TO NOT BE A CONCERN WITH WINTRY WEATHER THURSDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL HOLDING OFF ON THE PRECIP NOT STARTING UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...TEMPS ONLY SUPPORT WINTER
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA...HOWEVER AS MENTIONED BELOW IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
CLOSELY WITH THE WEDGE SET UP. WITH CONTINUING PRECIP AND LOW
TEMPS...HAVE ALSO MENTIONED WINTER PRECIP AGAIN FOR NORTH GEORGIA
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS...

11

/ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/
MODELS CONTINUE TO BECOME IN BETTER PHASE WITH THE MAIN
INFLUENCING FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM. THESE CONSIST OF TWO MAIN
SYSTEMS...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT IS A BIT
MORE MOISTURE STARVED AS WELL AS IT IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE
UPPER FLOW NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS DOWN TO LOW END CHANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON THE MODEL THERMAL
PROFILES BEFORE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE OF MORE CONCERN WITH FUTURE
UPDATES AS A STRONG 1030+MB PARENT SFC HIGH LOOKS TO SET UP A
CLASSICAL CAD WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY...THEN WHILE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING THE WEDGE...THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING OF
PRECIP ONSET. THE GFS ADVECTS MOISTURE FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...BRINGING IN BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD MAKE FOR A MORE INTERESTING SITUATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS BY 12Z SUNDAY WOULD SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF
WINTRY MIX MAINLY INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST. THE FORECAST
OF P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE WEDGE AND TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET FOR THE DEGREE OF DIABATIC
ENHANCEMENT. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE FOR SNOW IN PARTS OF THE
FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS...THOUGH UPDATES MAY NEED TO SHIFT FOCUS
TO NORTHEAST GA AND MIXED P-TYPE POTENTIAL IF MODELS SHOW SOME
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.

BAKER

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FUELS ARE STILL WET AND
MAY NOT DRY ENOUGH BY THEN. SO AT THIS TIME...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS WILL BRUSH THE ATLANTA AIRPORTS THIS MORNING THRU AROUND
09Z... THEN SHOULD RETREAT BACK NORTH OF THE AIRPORTS FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREA OBS SHOW SOME GUSTY NW WINDS STILL OCCURRING
THIS MORNING... BUT THIS SHOULD END ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS RETREAT
NORTH. OTHERWISE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD LATER
TODAY... RESULTING IN NEAR CALM WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON... MAKING
IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE A DIRECTION. BEST GUESS IS THE MORNING NNW
WINDS WILL SWING MORE SE DURING THE AFTERNOON... WITH SPEEDS ONLY
AROUND 2-5KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ESE WIND OR CALM WIND IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          28  52  31  54 /   0   0   5  10
ATLANTA         30  51  35  55 /   0   0   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     26  50  30  49 /   0   0   5  30
CARTERSVILLE    28  51  31  56 /   0   0   5  20
COLUMBUS        33  55  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     29  51  34  52 /   0   0   5  20
MACON           29  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            27  51  30  55 /   0   0   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  28  52  30  57 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         34  54  34  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...39




000
FXUS62 KCAE 280519
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1219 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN CAPE COD AND NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST. A PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE AREA AND MUCH LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. USED THE GFS LAMP FOR THE WIND FORECAST. THE NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS EARLY TODAY.
YESTERDAY/S VERIFICATION SUPPORTS THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
TODAY. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING FAVORS THE LOWER GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WILL
SHIFT OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER
DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE INTO
OUR REGION LATE SAT NT/SUN/SUN NT...WITH APPEARANCE OF WEAK WEDGE.
AT THIS TIME...PRECIP TYPE APPEARS WILL BE ALL LIQUID. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FRONT
MAY STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH ANOTHER WAVE RIDING ALONG
IT...BUT THAT IS JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND MUCH LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. USED THE GFS LAMP FOR THE WIND FORECAST.
THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 15
KNOTS EARLY TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 280519
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1219 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN CAPE COD AND NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST. A PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE AREA AND MUCH LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. USED THE GFS LAMP FOR THE WIND FORECAST. THE NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS EARLY TODAY.
YESTERDAY/S VERIFICATION SUPPORTS THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
TODAY. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING FAVORS THE LOWER GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WILL
SHIFT OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER
DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE INTO
OUR REGION LATE SAT NT/SUN/SUN NT...WITH APPEARANCE OF WEAK WEDGE.
AT THIS TIME...PRECIP TYPE APPEARS WILL BE ALL LIQUID. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FRONT
MAY STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH ANOTHER WAVE RIDING ALONG
IT...BUT THAT IS JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND MUCH LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. USED THE GFS LAMP FOR THE WIND FORECAST.
THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 15
KNOTS EARLY TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 280519
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1219 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN CAPE COD AND NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST. A PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE AREA AND MUCH LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. USED THE GFS LAMP FOR THE WIND FORECAST. THE NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS EARLY TODAY.
YESTERDAY/S VERIFICATION SUPPORTS THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
TODAY. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING FAVORS THE LOWER GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WILL
SHIFT OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER
DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE INTO
OUR REGION LATE SAT NT/SUN/SUN NT...WITH APPEARANCE OF WEAK WEDGE.
AT THIS TIME...PRECIP TYPE APPEARS WILL BE ALL LIQUID. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FRONT
MAY STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH ANOTHER WAVE RIDING ALONG
IT...BUT THAT IS JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND MUCH LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. USED THE GFS LAMP FOR THE WIND FORECAST.
THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 15
KNOTS EARLY TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 280519
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1219 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN CAPE COD AND NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST. A PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE AREA AND MUCH LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. USED THE GFS LAMP FOR THE WIND FORECAST. THE NAM BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS EARLY TODAY.
YESTERDAY/S VERIFICATION SUPPORTS THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
TODAY. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING FAVORS THE LOWER GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WILL
SHIFT OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER
DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE INTO
OUR REGION LATE SAT NT/SUN/SUN NT...WITH APPEARANCE OF WEAK WEDGE.
AT THIS TIME...PRECIP TYPE APPEARS WILL BE ALL LIQUID. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FRONT
MAY STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH ANOTHER WAVE RIDING ALONG
IT...BUT THAT IS JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS THE
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND MUCH LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. USED THE GFS LAMP FOR THE WIND FORECAST.
THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 15
KNOTS EARLY TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 280316
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1016 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN CAPE COD AND NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD
FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA
AND RESULTING COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRYING CONDITIONS. SATELLITE
LOOP STILL SHOWS A FEW CLOUDS ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER WITH MOST OF
THE AREA CLEAR.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S GIVEN COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A LITTLE BREEZY ON/AROUND THE AREA LAKES AS 20 TO 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/W MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT.
EXPECT WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS. THE WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. VERY DRY AND COOL AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH
DEW POINTS LIKELY IN THE TEENS. POTENTIAL FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGE OVER AREA. ONLY
FACTOR WOULD BE ANY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING TOWARD MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM MIDWEST POSSIBLY SPREADING
INTO THE AREA LATE. KEPT HIGHS TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RANGE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 20S. ALTHOUGH...IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
WITH CALM WINDS COULD SEE SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE TRADITIONALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE E CONUS THU/FRI. UPPER ENERGY
AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION THU NT. LIMITED
MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH IN A GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT.
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT. UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION LATE SAT NT/SUN/SUN
NT...WITH APPEARANCE OF WEAK WEDGE OVER OUR REGION. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIP TYPE APPEARS WILL BE ALL LIQUID FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GENERALLY ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTIES EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH ANOTHER WAVE RIDING
ALONG IT...BUT THAT IS JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. NO FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO DRY
AIR AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 280316
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1016 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN CAPE COD AND NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD
FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA
AND RESULTING COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRYING CONDITIONS. SATELLITE
LOOP STILL SHOWS A FEW CLOUDS ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER WITH MOST OF
THE AREA CLEAR.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S GIVEN COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A LITTLE BREEZY ON/AROUND THE AREA LAKES AS 20 TO 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/W MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT.
EXPECT WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS. THE WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. VERY DRY AND COOL AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH
DEW POINTS LIKELY IN THE TEENS. POTENTIAL FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGE OVER AREA. ONLY
FACTOR WOULD BE ANY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING TOWARD MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM MIDWEST POSSIBLY SPREADING
INTO THE AREA LATE. KEPT HIGHS TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RANGE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 20S. ALTHOUGH...IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
WITH CALM WINDS COULD SEE SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE TRADITIONALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE E CONUS THU/FRI. UPPER ENERGY
AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION THU NT. LIMITED
MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH IN A GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT.
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT. UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION LATE SAT NT/SUN/SUN
NT...WITH APPEARANCE OF WEAK WEDGE OVER OUR REGION. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIP TYPE APPEARS WILL BE ALL LIQUID FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GENERALLY ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTIES EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH ANOTHER WAVE RIDING
ALONG IT...BUT THAT IS JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. NO FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO DRY
AIR AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 280316
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1016 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN CAPE COD AND NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD
FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA
AND RESULTING COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRYING CONDITIONS. SATELLITE
LOOP STILL SHOWS A FEW CLOUDS ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER WITH MOST OF
THE AREA CLEAR.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S GIVEN COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A LITTLE BREEZY ON/AROUND THE AREA LAKES AS 20 TO 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/W MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT.
EXPECT WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS. THE WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. VERY DRY AND COOL AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH
DEW POINTS LIKELY IN THE TEENS. POTENTIAL FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGE OVER AREA. ONLY
FACTOR WOULD BE ANY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING TOWARD MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM MIDWEST POSSIBLY SPREADING
INTO THE AREA LATE. KEPT HIGHS TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RANGE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 20S. ALTHOUGH...IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
WITH CALM WINDS COULD SEE SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE TRADITIONALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE E CONUS THU/FRI. UPPER ENERGY
AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION THU NT. LIMITED
MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH IN A GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT.
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT. UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION LATE SAT NT/SUN/SUN
NT...WITH APPEARANCE OF WEAK WEDGE OVER OUR REGION. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIP TYPE APPEARS WILL BE ALL LIQUID FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GENERALLY ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTIES EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH ANOTHER WAVE RIDING
ALONG IT...BUT THAT IS JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. NO FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO DRY
AIR AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 280316
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1016 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN CAPE COD AND NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD
FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA
AND RESULTING COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRYING CONDITIONS. SATELLITE
LOOP STILL SHOWS A FEW CLOUDS ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER WITH MOST OF
THE AREA CLEAR.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S GIVEN COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A LITTLE BREEZY ON/AROUND THE AREA LAKES AS 20 TO 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/W MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT.
EXPECT WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS. THE WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. VERY DRY AND COOL AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH
DEW POINTS LIKELY IN THE TEENS. POTENTIAL FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGE OVER AREA. ONLY
FACTOR WOULD BE ANY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING TOWARD MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM MIDWEST POSSIBLY SPREADING
INTO THE AREA LATE. KEPT HIGHS TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RANGE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 20S. ALTHOUGH...IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
WITH CALM WINDS COULD SEE SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE TRADITIONALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE E CONUS THU/FRI. UPPER ENERGY
AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION THU NT. LIMITED
MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH IN A GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT.
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT. UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION LATE SAT NT/SUN/SUN
NT...WITH APPEARANCE OF WEAK WEDGE OVER OUR REGION. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIP TYPE APPEARS WILL BE ALL LIQUID FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GENERALLY ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTIES EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH ANOTHER WAVE RIDING
ALONG IT...BUT THAT IS JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. NO FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO DRY
AIR AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 280316
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1016 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN CAPE COD AND NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD
FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA
AND RESULTING COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRYING CONDITIONS. SATELLITE
LOOP STILL SHOWS A FEW CLOUDS ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER WITH MOST OF
THE AREA CLEAR.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S GIVEN COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A LITTLE BREEZY ON/AROUND THE AREA LAKES AS 20 TO 25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/W MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT.
EXPECT WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS. THE WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. VERY DRY AND COOL AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH
DEW POINTS LIKELY IN THE TEENS. POTENTIAL FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGE OVER AREA. ONLY
FACTOR WOULD BE ANY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING TOWARD MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM MIDWEST POSSIBLY SPREADING
INTO THE AREA LATE. KEPT HIGHS TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RANGE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 20S. ALTHOUGH...IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
WITH CALM WINDS COULD SEE SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE TRADITIONALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE E CONUS THU/FRI. UPPER ENERGY
AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION THU NT. LIMITED
MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH IN A GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT.
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT. UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION LATE SAT NT/SUN/SUN
NT...WITH APPEARANCE OF WEAK WEDGE OVER OUR REGION. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIP TYPE APPEARS WILL BE ALL LIQUID FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. GENERALLY ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTIES EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH ANOTHER WAVE RIDING
ALONG IT...BUT THAT IS JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. NO FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO DRY
AIR AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77




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