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000
FXUS62 KCHS 240246
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1046 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM N/NE TO S/SW
OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTING A MODEST INCREASE IN NE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S MOST AREAS EXCEPT
IN THE 60S AT THE COAST.

PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY UNTIL NE WINDS
INCREASE...BUT POTENTIAL COVERAGE/IMPACT OF FOG DOES NOT WARRANT A
MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS
SOME GREATER COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE COOL
BIAS IN THE MOS BASED GUIDANCE RECENTLY...SO DESPITE THE ONSHORE
SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN
SOUTHEAST SC AND IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED HOWEVER...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST NOT SEEING TEMPERATURES GET OUT OF THE UPPER
60S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED NOT FAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DRIFT FARTHER FROM SHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS TO VEER
SOUTHERLY. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION...WHICH COULD ADVECT ONSHORE ACROSS
SOUTH COASTAL SC OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST FRIDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S...IF NOT WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. 00Z TAF DETAILS
ADDRESS CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT/INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. PER LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING TRENDS AND NEW
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM...LOWERED WIND SPEEDS A BIT TO
10-15 KT OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS THEN ACROSS GA
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SEAS STARTING 1-2 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS
AND 2-3 FT BEYOND 20 NM WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT NEARSHORE AND
AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY
BY EARLY WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO
HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPR
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JAQ/SPR






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000
FXUS62 KCAE 240242
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1038 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES RIDGING IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. NEAR CALM WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
THE THREAT OF FOG WILL BE REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A THREAT GIVEN NORTHEAST WINDS
SPREADING A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO INCREASE.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS PRECEDING. RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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000
FXUS62 KFFC 240151
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
951 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...

WITH SUCH LOW DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS SHOULD DROP OFF
RATHER QUICKLY TONIGHT AS WINDS DIE OFF PROVIDING FOR EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HAVE THEREFORE ADJUSTED DIURNAL
TREND IN TEMPS TONIGHT JUST SLIGHTLY BUT BY AND LARGE LEFT MIN
TEMPS AS IS.

FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...NEW MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SOME
CONSENSUS ON LIKELY POPS MOVING INTO THE NW ZONES ALTHOUGH CAPE
WILL BE DIMINISHING. HAVE UPPED POPS ACCORDINGLY BUT GOING WITH
CHANCE THUNDER ALONG WITH THE LIKELY SHOWERS. CLOSE TO 40 KT LOW
LEVEL JET WITH THIS SYSTEM AT 925MB SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
STORM OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES PRIMARILY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 811 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SEEN FROM
THE AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. EXPECT DRY AIR AND UPPER RIDGE TO
DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RETURN MOISTURE BEGINNING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST. NEXT SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AROUND 06Z...MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN ZONES. BEST DYNAMICS LOOK CONCENTRATED ACROSS THAT
AREA...BUT INSTABILITY SEEMS MARGINAL. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS
AT THIS TIME. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A MAV/MET BLEND.

41

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO UPDATE CURRENT GRID THINKING. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...COVERAGE IS
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED BY LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. NEXT BIG
RAIN PRODUCER STILL LOOKS TO BE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MODELS
STILL SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

31

/ISSUED 403 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE THAT DOMINATES THE SHORT TERM MOVES EAST OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 00Z FRI. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA
BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WED AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
LOW CENTER DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE STATES
THU AFTERNOON. THE TAIL END OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO NW GA BY 06Z TO 12Z FRI. THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM SO STILL KEEPING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE ALSO
STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE SO WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY
ISSUES WITH FLOODING. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT MOVES IN SAT MORNING WHICH HELPS TO REINFORCE THE FIRST ONE
AND KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A LIKE A SUMMERTIME
PATTERN THAN A SPRING PATTERN WITH DECENT CAPE AND LOW SHEAR.
STARTING FRIDAY...CAPES AND LIS PEAK EVERYDAY AROUND 18Z AND FALL
OFF RAPIDLY BY 00Z. TEMPS ALSO LOOK MORE LIKE SUMMER BEGINNING THU
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.

41

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS WITH CLOUDS RELEGATED TO FAR SOUTH GEORGIA. SHOULD BE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR THURSDAY BUT ONLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SCT
MID LEVEL DECK AT BEST. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ARRIVE THU
NIGHT BUT JUST OUTSIDE THIS TAF CYCLE WITH MVFR PUSHING IN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST BY FRI MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          48  78  58  81 /   0   5   5  10
ATLANTA         51  76  60  78 /   0   5   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     43  73  54  74 /   0   5  30  70
CARTERSVILLE    44  77  58  78 /   0   5  10  40
COLUMBUS        53  81  60  81 /   0   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     49  73  59  77 /   0   5   5  40
MACON           49  81  59  83 /   0   5   5   5
ROME            44  77  57  78 /   0   5  60  30
PEACHTREE CITY  44  79  57  79 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         56  81  62  83 /   0   5   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...DEESE






000
FXUS62 KCHS 240148
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
948 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM N/NE TO S/SW
OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTING A MODEST SURGE OF NE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT IN THE 60S AT THE COAST.

PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY UNTIL NE WINDS
INCREASE...BUT POTENTIAL COVERAGE/IMPACT OF FOG DOES NOT WARRANT A
MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS
SOME GREATER COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE COOL
BIAS IN THE MOS BASED GUIDANCE RECENTLY...SO DESPITE THE ONSHORE
SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN
SOUTHEAST SC AND IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED HOWEVER...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST NOT SEEING TEMPERATURES GET OUT OF THE UPPER
60S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED NOT FAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DRIFT FARTHER FROM SHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS TO VEER
SOUTHERLY. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION...WHICH COULD ADVECT ONSHORE ACROSS
SOUTH COASTAL SC OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST FRIDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S...IF NOT WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. 00Z TAF DETAILS
ADDRESS CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT/INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. AS OF LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...THIS PROCESS
APPEARED TO BE EVOLVING SOMEWHAT MORE SLOWLY THAN INDICATED IN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THUS DELAYED THE ONSET OF INCREASING NE WINDS
ACCORDINGLY. EVENTUALLY...NE WINDS COULD SURGE TO AS HIGH AS
15-20 KT...INITIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS THEN ACROSS GA WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL BUILD TO 2-4 FT LATE....HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY BY EARLY
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW
15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPR
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JAQ/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCAE 240022
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
822 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES RIDGING IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE THREAT OF FOG WILL
BE REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER SMOKE IN THE VCNTY OF
CUB/CAE COULD LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR THROUGH 03Z. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM GIVEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SPREADING A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS PRECEDING. RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 240022
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
822 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES RIDGING IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE THREAT OF FOG WILL
BE REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER SMOKE IN THE VCNTY OF
CUB/CAE COULD LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR THROUGH 03Z. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM GIVEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SPREADING A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS PRECEDING. RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 240022
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
822 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES RIDGING IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE THREAT OF FOG WILL
BE REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER SMOKE IN THE VCNTY OF
CUB/CAE COULD LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR THROUGH 03Z. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM GIVEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SPREADING A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS PRECEDING. RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 240022
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
822 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES RIDGING IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE THREAT OF FOG WILL
BE REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER SMOKE IN THE VCNTY OF
CUB/CAE COULD LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR THROUGH 03Z. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM GIVEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SPREADING A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS PRECEDING. RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 240011
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
811 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SEEN FROM
THE AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. EXPECT DRY AIR AND UPPER RIDGE TO
DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RETURN MOISTURE BEGINNING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST. NEXT SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AROUND 06Z...MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN ZONES. BEST DYNAMICS LOOK CONCENTRATED ACROSS THAT
AREA...BUT INSTABILITY SEEMS MARGINAL. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS
AT THIS TIME. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A MAV/MET BLEND.

41

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO UPDATE CURRENT GRID THINKING. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...COVERAGE IS
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED BY LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. NEXT BIG
RAIN PRODUCER STILL LOOKS TO BE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MODELS
STILL SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

31

/ISSUED 403 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE THAT DOMINATES THE SHORT TERM MOVES EAST OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 00Z FRI. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA
BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WED AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
LOW CENTER DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE STATES
THU AFTERNOON. THE TAIL END OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO NW GA BY 06Z TO 12Z FRI. THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM SO STILL KEEPING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE ALSO
STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE SO WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY
ISSUES WITH FLOODING. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT MOVES IN SAT MORNING WHICH HELPS TO REINFORCE THE FIRST ONE
AND KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A LIKE A SUMMERTIME
PATTERN THAN A SPRING PATTERN WITH DECENT CAPE AND LOW SHEAR.
STARTING FRIDAY...CAPES AND LIS PEAK EVERYDAY AROUND 18Z AND FALL
OFF RAPIDLY BY 00Z. TEMPS ALSO LOOK MORE LIKE SUMMER BEGINNING THU
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL THE
TERMINALS WITH CLOUDS RELEGATED TO FAR SOUTH GEORGIA. SHOULD BE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR THURSDAY BUT ONLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SCT
MID LEVEL DECK AT BEST. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ARRIVE THU
NIGHT BUT JUST OUTSIDE THIS TAF CYCLE WITH MVFR PUSHING IN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST BY FRI MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          48  78  58  81 /   0   5   5  10
ATLANTA         51  76  60  78 /   0   5   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     43  73  54  74 /   0   5  30  70
CARTERSVILLE    44  77  58  78 /   0   5  10  40
COLUMBUS        53  81  60  81 /   0   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     49  73  59  77 /   0   5   5  40
MACON           49  81  59  83 /   0   5   5   5
ROME            44  77  57  78 /   0   5  60  30
PEACHTREE CITY  44  79  57  79 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         56  81  62  83 /   0   5   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...DEESE






000
FXUS62 KCAE 232344
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
741 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS MADE ITS WAY EAST OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LEAVING MUCH LOWER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN
ITS WAKE. THE FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST TO SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE THREAT OF FOG WILL BE
REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER SMOKE IN THE VCNTY OF
CUB/CAE COULD LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR THROUGH 03Z. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM GIVEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SPREADING A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS PRECEDING. RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 232344
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
741 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS MADE ITS WAY EAST OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LEAVING MUCH LOWER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN
ITS WAKE. THE FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST TO SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE THREAT OF FOG WILL BE
REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER SMOKE IN THE VCNTY OF
CUB/CAE COULD LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR THROUGH 03Z. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM GIVEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SPREADING A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS PRECEDING. RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 232250
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
650 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE REGION TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND
REQUIRED ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS
DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

TONIGHT...THE DEEP UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE AXIS STRETCHING UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT/INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE LOW 50S FAR INLAND...TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS
SOME GREATER COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE COOL
BIAS IN THE MOS BASED GUIDANCE RECENTLY...SO DESPITE THE ONSHORE
SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN
SOUTHEAST SC AND IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED HOWEVER...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST NOT SEEING TEMPERATURES GET OUT OF THE UPPER
60S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED NOT FAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DRIFT FARTHER FROM SHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS TO VEER
SOUTHERLY. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION...WHICH COULD ADVECT ONSHORE ACROSS
SOUTH COASTAL SC OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST FRIDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S...IF NOT WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT/INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. WINDS COULD SURGE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS SC
WATERS BY LATER THIS EVENING AND ACROSS GA WATERS LATER TONIGHT.
SEAS OF 1-2 FT WILL BUILD TO 2-4 FT LATE....HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY BY EARLY
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW
15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH/SPR
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...BSH/JAQ/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCAE 232110
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
510 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS MADE ITS WAY EAST OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LEAVING MUCH LOWER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN
ITS WAKE. THE FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST TO SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE THREAT OF FOG WILL BE
REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 24/10Z WHEN THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOCALIZED
FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KAGS...BUT THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE WIDESPREAD
FOG UNLIKELY. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FOR
TONIGHT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 232110
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
510 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS MADE ITS WAY EAST OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LEAVING MUCH LOWER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN
ITS WAKE. THE FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST TO SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE THREAT OF FOG WILL BE
REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 24/10Z WHEN THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOCALIZED
FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KAGS...BUT THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE WIDESPREAD
FOG UNLIKELY. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FOR
TONIGHT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCHS 231957
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
357 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE REGION TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE DEEP UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE AXIS STRETCHING UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS THE HIGH
DOES SO...A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT INCREASING NORTHEAST
FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS INCREASE IN FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DESPITE THE CLEAR
SKIES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S FAR INLAND...TO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS
SOME GREATER COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE COOL
BIAS IN THE MOS BASED GUIDANCE RECENTLY...SO DESPITE THE ONSHORE
SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN
SOUTHEAST SC AND IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED HOWEVER...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST NOT SEEING TEMPERATURES GET OUT OF THE UPPER
60S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED NOT FAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DRIFT FARTHER FROM SHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS TO VEER
SOUTHERLY. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION...WHICH COULD ADVECT ONSHORE ACROSS
SOUTH COASTAL SC OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST FRIDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S...IF NOT WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN
EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND RIDGE DOWN THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. AS IT DOES...A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH WILL SUPPORT
AN INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL PRIMARILY
RANGE FROM 10-15 KT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS
GREATER THAN 15 KT LATE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20
NM...INCREASING TO 2-3 FT LATE. OVER THE OUTER WATERS SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 2-3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY BY EARLY
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW
15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/JAQ





000
FXUS62 KFFC 231948
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
348 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SEEN FROM
THE AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. EXPECT DRY AIR AND UPPER RIDGE TO
DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME RETURN MOISTURE BEGINNING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST. NEXT SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AROUND 06Z...MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN ZONES. BEST DYNAMICS LOOK CONCENTRATED ACROSS THAT
AREA...BUT INSTABILITY SEEMS MARGINAL. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS
AT THIS TIME. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A MAV/MET BLEND.

41

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO UPDATE CURRENT GRID THINKING. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...COVERAGE IS
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED BY LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. NEXT BIG
RAIN PRODUCER STILL LOOKS TO BE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MODELS
STILL SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

31


&&

/ISSUED 403 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE THAT DOMINATES THE SHORT TERM MOVES EAST OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 00Z FRI. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA
BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WED AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
LOW CENTER DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE STATES
THU AFTERNOON. THE TAIL END OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO NW GA BY 06Z TO 12Z FRI. THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM SO STILL KEEPING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE ALSO
STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE SO WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY
ISSUES WITH FLOODING. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT MOVES IN SAT MORNING WHICH HELPS TO REINFORCE THE FIRST ONE
AND KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A LIKE A SUMMERTIME
PATTERN THAN A SPRING PATTERN WITH DECENT CAPE AND LOW SHEAR.
STARTING FRIDAY...CAPES AND LIS PEAK EVERYDAY AROUND 18Z AND FALL
OFF RAPIDLY BY 00Z. TEMPS ALSO LOOK MORE LIKE SUMMER BEGINNING THU
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.

01

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS 10KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 18KT...DIMINISHING BY 00Z. WINDS BECOMING EAST TO
NORTHEAST BY 10Z THURSDAY...THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          48  78  58  81 /   0   5  20  30
ATLANTA         51  76  60  78 /   0   5  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     43  73  54  74 /   0   5  50  40
CARTERSVILLE    44  77  58  78 /   0   5  40  30
COLUMBUS        53  81  60  81 /   0   5  10  20
GAINESVILLE     49  73  59  77 /   0   5  40  30
MACON           49  81  59  83 /   0   5  10  20
ROME            44  77  57  78 /   0   5  50  30
PEACHTREE CITY  44  79  57  79 /   0   5  20  20
VIDALIA         56  81  62  83 /   0   5  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...41






000
FXUS62 KCAE 231807
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
207 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A DRIER AIRMASS TO THE MIDLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. ONLY DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE FRONT ARE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE A TAD COOLER. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT
IN VERY FEW CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF BREEZY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE THREAT OF FOG
WILL BE REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER TAF LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH 24/10Z WHEN THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KAGS...BUT THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL
MAKE WIDESPREAD FOG UNLIKELY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AT
5 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING ALONG THE AREA RIVERS AND LAKES FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL
SEVERAL DAYS AGO HAS ENDED.
&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 231807
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
207 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A DRIER AIRMASS TO THE MIDLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. ONLY DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE FRONT ARE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE A TAD COOLER. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT
IN VERY FEW CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF BREEZY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE THREAT OF FOG
WILL BE REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER TAF LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH 24/10Z WHEN THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KAGS...BUT THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL
MAKE WIDESPREAD FOG UNLIKELY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AT
5 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING ALONG THE AREA RIVERS AND LAKES FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL
SEVERAL DAYS AGO HAS ENDED.
&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 231744
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL GA THIS
MORNING. THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY IS A LITTLE HARD TO
DISCERN IN THE WIND PATTERN AND THE PRESSURE PATTERN...AND CAN BE
SEEN THE BEST IN THE DEWPOINT FIELD. DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
ARE IN THE 60S...WHILE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE 50S. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE. WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS
MORNING...AS VSBYS ARE IMPROVING ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES. IN
ADDITION...THE DENSE FOG IS NOT WIDESPREAD WHERE IT HAS DEVELOPED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO GEORGIA
TODAY...HELPING TO PUSH THE LINGERING BOUNDARY OUT OF THE CWFA. THE
OLD FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE GA/FL LINE LATER TODAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE TO
BEGIN PUSHING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY LATE THURSDAY.

THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
TODAY...THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT DOMINATES THE SHORT TERM MOVES EAST OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 00Z FRI. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA
BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WED AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
LOW CENTER DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE STATES
THU AFTERNOON. THE TAIL END OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
NW GA BY 06Z TO 12Z FRI. THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A DECENT
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM SO STILL KEEPING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE ALSO STILL NOT
SHOWING MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE SO WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY ISSUES
WITH FLOODING. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES
IN SAT MORNING WHICH HELPS TO REINFORCE THE FIRST ONE AND KEEP A
CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A LIKE A SUMMERTIME PATTERN THAN A
SPRING PATTERN WITH DECENT CAPE AND LOW SHEAR. STARTING
FRIDAY...CAPES AND LIS PEAK EVERYDAY AROUND 18Z AND FALL OFF
RAPIDLY BY 00Z. TEMPS ALSO LOOK MORE LIKE SUMMER BEGINNING THU
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS 10KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 18KT...DIMINISHING BY 00Z. WINDS BECOMING EAST TO
NORTHEAST BY 10Z THURSDAY...THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  49  75  59 /   0   0   5  30
ATLANTA         73  51  77  62 /   0   0   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     67  44  70  53 /   0   0   5  50
CARTERSVILLE    71  46  78  58 /   0   0   5  40
COLUMBUS        79  54  82  61 /   0   0   5  10
GAINESVILLE     74  48  74  59 /   0   0   5  40
MACON           79  52  81  60 /   0   0   5  10
ROME            71  46  79  58 /   0   0   5  50
PEACHTREE CITY  74  47  78  59 /   0   0   5  20
VIDALIA         79  57  81  62 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KCHS 231737
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
137 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM
THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE GOING
FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW.

LATE THIS MORNING...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS STRETCHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ALOFT...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO BUILD INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS WITH DRIER AIR NOTED TO THE NORTH NEAR THE NC/SC
STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE A WARM START THIS MORNING WITH MANY
AREAS ALREADY IN THE LOW 70S. WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES FROM THE 12Z SOUNDING AND MODEL DATA...I HAVE WARMED HIGHS
A DEGREE OR TWO. OTHERWISE...A VERY QUIET DAY IS ON TAP WITH NO
REAL FORECAST CONCERNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRIDGE THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT SINK ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY
PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY FROM
LATE EVENING ON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AT THE COAST WITH A FEW MID 60S ALONG THE
GEORGIA BARRIER ISLANDS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL HAVE MORE
INFLUENCE.

THURSDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...CAUSING
NORTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE DAY WHILE
A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT OCCURS ALOFT. LATEST 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS VALUES ALONG WITH THE DOWNSLOPING WIND SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE
COAST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE MILD THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO START OFF THE DAY
AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THAT SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING PEAK HEATING WITH SBCAPES
APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST OVER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE FORCING FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE GREATEST. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH FROPA
AND DIURNAL HEAT LOSS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS
VALUES ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW
MID 80S AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN
LOW TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA UNDER A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY
OF WARMER TEMPS WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVORING AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
BEFORE STALLING OR DISSIPATING NEAR OR OVER THE AREA. REGARDLESS OF
POSITION...THE WEAK FRONT WILL ONLY HAVE A MARGINAL INFLUENCE TO
TEMPS AS A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS BEHIND IT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN
EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE WIND FIELD WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND MUDDLED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INTERTWINED WITH THE FORMATION OF A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
SEAS WILL RANGE 1-2 FT NEARSHORE...2-3 FT OFFSHORE.

TONIGHT...A MORE SOLID EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES THE APPALACHIANS
AND BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS BUILDING 2-3 FT ALL LEGS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY BY EARLY
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW
15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...ST/DPB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 231402
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1002 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM
THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE THIS MORNING...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS STRETCHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ALOFT...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO BUILD INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS WITH DRIER AIR NOTED TO THE NORTH NEAR THE NC/SC
STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE A WARM START THIS MORNING WITH MANY
AREAS ALREADY IN THE LOW 70S. WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES FROM THE 12Z SOUNDING AND MODEL DATA...I HAVE WARMED HIGHS
A DEGREE OR TWO. OTHERWISE...A VERY QUIET DAY IS ON TAP WITH NO
REAL FORECAST CONCERNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRIDGE THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT SINK ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY
PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY FROM
LATE EVENING ON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AT THE COAST WITH A FEW MID 60S ALONG THE
GEORGIA BARRIER ISLANDS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL HAVE MORE
INFLUENCE.

THURSDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...CAUSING
NORTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE DAY WHILE
A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT OCCURS ALOFT. LATEST 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS VALUES ALONG WITH THE DOWNSLOPING WIND SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE
COAST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE MILD THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO START OFF THE DAY
AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THAT SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING PEAK HEATING WITH SBCAPES
APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST OVER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE FORCING FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE GREATEST. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH FROPA
AND DIURNAL HEAT LOSS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS
VALUES ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW
MID 80S AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN
LOW TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA UNDER A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY
OF WARMER TEMPS WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVORING AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
BEFORE STALLING OR DISSIPATING NEAR OR OVER THE AREA. REGARDLESS OF
POSITION...THE WEAK FRONT WILL ONLY HAVE A MARGINAL INFLUENCE TO
TEMPS AS A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS BEHIND IT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KSAV...IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY HANG ON THROUGH 15Z AND THEN
QUICKLY SCATTER OUT. VFR OTHERWISE. VFR AT KCHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE WIND FIELD WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND MUDDLED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INTERTWINED WITH THE FORMATION OF A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
SEAS WILL RANGE 1-2 FT NEARSHORE...2-3 FT OFFSHORE.

TONIGHT...A MORE SOLID EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES THE APPALACHIANS
AND BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS BUILDING 2-3 FT ALL LEGS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY BY EARLY
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW
15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...ST/BSH
MARINE...ST/DPB





000
FXUS62 KCAE 231138
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
738 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER MOIST
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED. THERE ARE
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME FOR AN ADVISORY. EXPECT ANY FOG TO DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE
AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. AS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.
MODELS DO INDICATE AT 25 KT LOW LEVEL JET...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT/CALM MOST PLACES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY THEN MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. EXPECT A MODEST
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BY LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW A WEAK S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
OH/TN VALLEY REGION AND AFFECTING THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK MOISTURE FLUX AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS
AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY AS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DIFFUSE/WEAK
FRONT/TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
STALL NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK LOW AND CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ALSO LOOK LOW. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE STAYED NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR/JUST ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF OLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID/LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PATCHY AREAS OF IFR VSBYS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ENTIRE AREA BY 14Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMMING NW 5 TO 10KTS AS CDFNT PUSHES TO THE COAST BY 15Z.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING ALONG THE AREA RIVERS AND LAKES FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AS NEARLY DIMINISHED. SOME MINOR FLOODING
CONTINUES ON LAKE WATEREE BUT EXPECT THE POOL LEVEL ON THE LAKE TO
FALL BELOW 100.0 FEET AROUND 6 AM THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
FALL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 231138
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
738 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER MOIST
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED. THERE ARE
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME FOR AN ADVISORY. EXPECT ANY FOG TO DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE
AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. AS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.
MODELS DO INDICATE AT 25 KT LOW LEVEL JET...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT/CALM MOST PLACES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY THEN MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. EXPECT A MODEST
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BY LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW A WEAK S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
OH/TN VALLEY REGION AND AFFECTING THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK MOISTURE FLUX AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS
AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY AS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DIFFUSE/WEAK
FRONT/TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
STALL NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK LOW AND CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ALSO LOOK LOW. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE STAYED NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR/JUST ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF OLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID/LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PATCHY AREAS OF IFR VSBYS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ENTIRE AREA BY 14Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMMING NW 5 TO 10KTS AS CDFNT PUSHES TO THE COAST BY 15Z.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING ALONG THE AREA RIVERS AND LAKES FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AS NEARLY DIMINISHED. SOME MINOR FLOODING
CONTINUES ON LAKE WATEREE BUT EXPECT THE POOL LEVEL ON THE LAKE TO
FALL BELOW 100.0 FEET AROUND 6 AM THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
FALL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 231127
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
727 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL GA THIS
MORNING. THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY IS A LITTLE HARD TO
DISCERN IN THE WIND PATTERN AND THE PRESSURE PATTERN...AND CAN BE
SEEN THE BEST IN THE DEWPOINT FIELD. DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
ARE IN THE 60S...WHILE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE 50S. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE. WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS
MORNING...AS VSBYS ARE IMPROVING ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES. IN
ADDITION...THE DENSE FOG IS NOT WIDESPREAD WHERE IT HAS DEVELOPED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO GEORGIA
TODAY...HELPING TO PUSH THE LINGERING BOUNDARY OUT OF THE CWFA. THE
OLD FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE GA/FL LINE LATER TODAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE TO
BEGIN PUSHING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY LATE THURSDAY.

THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
TODAY...THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT DOMINATES THE SHORT TERM MOVES EAST OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 00Z FRI. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA
BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WED AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
LOW CENTER DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE STATES
THU AFTERNOON. THE TAIL END OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
NW GA BY 06Z TO 12Z FRI. THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A DECENT
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM SO STILL KEEPING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE ALSO STILL NOT
SHOWING MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE SO WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY ISSUES
WITH FLOODING. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES
IN SAT MORNING WHICH HELPS TO REINFORCE THE FIRST ONE AND KEEP A
CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A LIKE A SUMMERTIME PATTERN THAN A
SPRING PATTERN WITH DECENT CAPE AND LOW SHEAR. STARTING
FRIDAY...CAPES AND LIS PEAK EVERYDAY AROUND 18Z AND FALL OFF
RAPIDLY BY 00Z. TEMPS ALSO LOOK MORE LIKE SUMMER BEGINNING THU
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT SOUTH OF ATL AND WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO THE NW. WINDS
SHOULD GO OVER THE THE NE TONIGHT AND THEN SE TOMORROW. NO
RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  49  75  59 /   0   0   5  30
ATLANTA         73  51  77  62 /   0   0   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     67  44  70  53 /   0   0   5  50
CARTERSVILLE    71  46  78  58 /   0   0   5  40
COLUMBUS        79  54  82  61 /   0   0   5  10
GAINESVILLE     74  48  74  59 /   0   0   5  40
MACON           79  52  81  60 /   0   0   5  10
ROME            71  46  79  58 /   0   0   5  50
PEACHTREE CITY  74  47  78  59 /   0   0   5  20
VIDALIA         79  57  81  62 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCHS 231054
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
654 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM
THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING...PASSING SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY LATE
MORNING. ONLY VERY MINOR COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT MODELS SHOW THE COLD AIR ADVECTION QUICKLY BECOMING
POSITIVE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO TUESDAY WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW A VERY WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SURF ZONE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ONLY PUSHING INLAND BY A FEW MILES...MAINLY
OVER NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA. THE BEACHES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT
WARMER THAN USUAL FOR LATE APRIL AS A RESULT...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BEGIN TO DROP A BIT BY MID-AFTERNOON AS THE TERMINALLY
DIRECT CIRCULATION MEANDERS VERY SLOWLY INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRIDGE THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT SINK ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY
PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY FROM
LATE EVENING ON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AT THE COAST WITH A FEW MID 60S ALONG THE
GEORGIA BARRIER ISLANDS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL HAVE MORE
INFLUENCE.

THURSDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...CAUSING
NORTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE DAY WHILE
A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT OCCURS ALOFT. LATEST 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS VALUES ALONG WITH THE DOWNSLOPING WIND SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE
COAST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE MILD THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO START OFF THE DAY
AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THAT SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING PEAK HEATING WITH SBCAPES
APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST OVER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE FORCING FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE GREATEST. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH FROPA
AND DIURNAL HEAT LOSS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS
VALUES ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW
MID 80S AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN
LOW TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA UNDER A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY
OF WARMER TEMPS WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVORING AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
BEFORE STALLING OR DISSIPATING NEAR OR OVER THE AREA. REGARDLESS OF
POSITION...THE WEAK FRONT WILL ONLY HAVE A MARGINAL INFLUENCE TO
TEMPS AS A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS BEHIND IT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KSAV...RIBBON OF IFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT KSAV THROUGH ABOUT 14Z
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. VFR OTHERWISE. VFR AT KCHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE WIND FIELD WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND MUDDLED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INTERTWINED WITH THE FORMATION OF A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
SEAS WILL RANGE 1-2 FT NEARSHORE...2-3 FT OFFSHORE.

TONIGHT...A MORE SOLID EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES THE APPALACHIANS
AND BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS BUILDING 2-3 FT ALL LEGS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY BY EARLY
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW
15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/DPB







000
FXUS62 KCAE 230857
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
457 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER MOIST
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED. THERE ARE
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME FOR AN ADVISORY. EXPECT ANY FOG TO DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE
AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. AS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.
MODELS DO INDICATE AT 25 KT LOW LEVEL JET...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT/CALM MOST PLACES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY THEN MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. EXPECT A MODEST
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BY LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW A WEAK S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
OH/TN VALLEY REGION AND AFFECTING THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK MOISTURE FLUX AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS
AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY AS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DIFFUSE/WEAK
FRONT/TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
STALL NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK LOW AND CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ALSO LOOK LOW. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE STAYED NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR/JUST ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF OLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID/LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. MAIN FRONT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS
STILL JUST TO OUR NORTH. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO CONTINUE PUSHING
SOUTH...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SOME DRIER AIR ENTERING OUR
REGION LATER THIS MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...POTENTIAL FOR FOG
EXISTS. SURFACE AND/OR BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE STAYING UP JUST
ENOUGH TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE...AND IS LEADING TO VARIABLE
VISIBILITIES. WILL GENERALLY INDICATE IFR VSBYS IN FOG...WITH
TEMPO PERIODS OF LIFR AT SOME TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...ONCE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH OR DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS...WHICHEVER COMES
FIRST...AND THE FOG DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR TODAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING ALONG THE AREA RIVERS AND LAKES FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AS NEARLY DIMINISHED. SOME MINOR FLOODING
CONTINUES ON LAKE WATEREE BUT EXPECT THE POOL LEVEL ON THE LAKE TO
FALL BELOW 100.0 FEET AROUND 6 AM THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
FALL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 230857
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
457 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER MOIST
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED. THERE ARE
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME FOR AN ADVISORY. EXPECT ANY FOG TO DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE
AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. AS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.
MODELS DO INDICATE AT 25 KT LOW LEVEL JET...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT/CALM MOST PLACES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY THEN MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. EXPECT A MODEST
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BY LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW A WEAK S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
OH/TN VALLEY REGION AND AFFECTING THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK MOISTURE FLUX AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS
AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY AS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DIFFUSE/WEAK
FRONT/TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
STALL NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK LOW AND CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ALSO LOOK LOW. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE STAYED NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR/JUST ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF OLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID/LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. MAIN FRONT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS
STILL JUST TO OUR NORTH. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO CONTINUE PUSHING
SOUTH...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SOME DRIER AIR ENTERING OUR
REGION LATER THIS MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...POTENTIAL FOR FOG
EXISTS. SURFACE AND/OR BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE STAYING UP JUST
ENOUGH TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE...AND IS LEADING TO VARIABLE
VISIBILITIES. WILL GENERALLY INDICATE IFR VSBYS IN FOG...WITH
TEMPO PERIODS OF LIFR AT SOME TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...ONCE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH OR DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS...WHICHEVER COMES
FIRST...AND THE FOG DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR TODAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING ALONG THE AREA RIVERS AND LAKES FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AS NEARLY DIMINISHED. SOME MINOR FLOODING
CONTINUES ON LAKE WATEREE BUT EXPECT THE POOL LEVEL ON THE LAKE TO
FALL BELOW 100.0 FEET AROUND 6 AM THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
FALL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 230803
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
403 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL GA THIS
MORNING. THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY IS A LITTLE HARD TO
DISCERN IN THE WIND PATTERN AND THE PRESSURE PATTERN...AND CAN BE
SEEN THE BEST IN THE DEWPOINT FIELD. DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
ARE IN THE 60S...WHILE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE 50S. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE. WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS
MORNING...AS VSBYS ARE IMPROVING ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES. IN
ADDITION...THE DENSE FOG IS NOT WIDESPREAD WHERE IT HAS DEVELOPED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO GEORGIA
TODAY...HELPING TO PUSH THE LINGERING BOUNDARY OUT OF THE CWFA. THE
OLD FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE GA/FL LINE LATER TODAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE TO
BEGIN PUSHING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY LATE THURSDAY.

THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
TODAY...THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT DOMINATES THE SHORT TERM MOVES EAST OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 00Z FRI. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA
BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WED AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
LOW CENTER DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE STATES
THU AFTERNOON. THE TAIL END OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
NW GA BY 06Z TO 12Z FRI. THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A DECENT
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM SO STILL KEEPING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE ALSO STILL NOT
SHOWING MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE SO WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY ISSUES
WITH FLOODING. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES
IN SAT MORNING WHICH HELPS TO REINFORCE THE FIRST ONE AND KEEP A
CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A LIKE A SUMMERTIME PATTERN THAN A
SPRING PATTERN WITH DECENT CAPE AND LOW SHEAR. STARTING
FRIDAY...CAPES AND LIS PEAK EVERYDAY AROUND 18Z AND FALL OFF
RAPIDLY BY 00Z. TEMPS ALSO LOOK MORE LIKE SUMMER BEGINNING THU
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
PRETTY DIFFICULT TO FIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE PRESSURE
PATTERN...BUT IT IS PRETTY WELL DEPICTED ACROSS NORTHERN GA IN THE
DEWPOINT FIELD. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL GA. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED AT ATL AT THIS
TIME...BUT IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED PATCHY FOG MAY FORM.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW BEFORE 12Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON RESTRICTED VSBYS AND WIND SHIFT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  49  75  59 /   0   0   5  30
ATLANTA         73  51  77  62 /   0   0   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     67  44  70  53 /   0   0   5  50
CARTERSVILLE    71  46  78  58 /   0   0   5  40
COLUMBUS        79  54  82  61 /   0   0   5  10
GAINESVILLE     74  48  74  59 /   0   0   5  40
MACON           79  52  81  60 /   0   0   5  10
ROME            71  46  79  58 /   0   0   5  50
PEACHTREE CITY  74  47  78  59 /   0   0   5  20
VIDALIA         79  57  81  62 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA






000
FXUS62 KCAE 230753
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
353 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER MOIST
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED. THERE ARE
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME FOR AN ADVISORY. EXPECT ANY FOG TO DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE
AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. AS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.
MODELS DO INDICATE AT 25 KT LOW LEVEL JET...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT/CALM MOST PLACES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY THEN MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. EXPECT A MODEST
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BY LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW A WEAK S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
OH/TN VALLEY REGION AND AFFECTING THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK MOISTURE FLUX AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS
AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY AS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DIFFUSE/WEAK
FRONT/TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
STALL NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK LOW AND CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ALSO LOOK LOW. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE STAYED NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR/JUST ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF OLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID/LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. MAIN FRONT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS
STILL JUST TO OUR NORTH. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO CONTINUE PUSHING
SOUTH...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SOME DRIER AIR ENTERING OUR
REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK. IN THE MEANTIME HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR FOG
EXISTS. LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE SURFACE AND/OR BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WHICH ARE STAYING UP JUST ENOUGH TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE.  WILL
INDICATE MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT...WITH LIFR AT FOG PRONE
AGS. OTHERWISE...ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND ANY FOG
DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR TODAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING ALONG THE AREA RIVERS AND LAKES FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AS NEARLY DIMINISHED. SOME MINOR FLOODING
CONTINUES ON LAKE WATEREE BUT EXPECT THE POOL LEVEL ON THE LAKE TO
FALL BELOW 100.0 FEET AROUND 6 AM THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
FALL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCHS 230736
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
336 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM
THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...SKIES HAVE CLEARED NICELY EARLY THIS MORNING
WITHIN A LARGE RIBBON OF DNVA/SUBSIDENCE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA. CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUNDS LEFT OVER FROM RAINS TUESDAY
EVENING ARE SUPPORTING LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS FOG COULD SPREAD EAST AND
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD/DENSE PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH THE COLD
FRONT NOT FORECASTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER UNTIL MID-
MORNING OR SO. THIS AREA CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FARTHER NORTH...SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP...BUT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF ANY FOG THAT TRIES TO
FORM.

TODAY...A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING...PASSING SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY LATE
MORNING. ONLY VERY MINOR COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT MODELS SHOW THE COLD AIR ADVECTION QUICKLY BECOMING
POSITIVE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO TUESDAY WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW A VERY WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SURF ZONE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ONLY PUSHING INLAND BY A FEW MILES...MAINLY
OVER NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA. THE BEACHES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT
WARMER THAN USUAL FOR LATE APRIL AS A RESULT...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BEGIN TO DROP A BIT BY MID-AFTERNOON AS THE TERMINALLY
DIRECT CIRCULATION MEANDERS VERY SLOWLY INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRIDGE THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT SINK ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY
PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY FROM
LATE EVENING ON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AT THE COAST WITH A FEW MID 60S ALONG THE
GEORGIA BARRIER ISLANDS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL HAVE MORE
INFLUENCE.

THURSDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...CAUSING
NORTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE DAY WHILE
A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT OCCURS ALOFT. LATEST 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS VALUES ALONG WITH THE DOWNSLOPING WIND SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE
COAST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE MILD THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO START OFF THE DAY
AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THAT SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING PEAK HEATING WITH SBCAPES
APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST OVER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE FORCING FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE GREATEST. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH FROPA
AND DIURNAL HEAT LOSS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS
VALUES ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW
MID 80S AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN
LOW TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA UNDER A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY
OF WARMER TEMPS WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVORING AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
BEFORE STALLING OR DISSIPATING NEAR OR OVER THE AREA. REGARDLESS OF
POSITION...THE WEAK FRONT WILL ONLY HAVE A MARGINAL INFLUENCE TO
TEMPS AS A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS BEHIND IT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KSAV...LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
AS CLOUDS CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA SO THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD THAT SOME FOG AND STRATUS WILL
IMPACT THE KSAV TERMINAL WITH THE INITIAL TRAFFIC PUSH THIS
MORNING. IT IS UNCLEAR ATTM HOW LOW CONDITIONS WILL GET WITH SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE ESSENTIALLY USELESS AT THIS JUNCTURE. WILL CALL FOR
PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS 08-12Z WITH TEMPO IFR VSBYS/CIGS FROM
10-12Z...HOWEVER IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT PREVAILING LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. ONCE THE FOG AND
STRATUS BURN OFF...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

KCHS...VFR FOR THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP
THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT WINDS SHOULD KEEP ANY IMPACTS LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE WIND FIELD WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND MUDDLED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INTERTWINED WITH THE FORMATION OF A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
SEAS WILL RANGE 1-2 FT NEARSHORE...2-3 FT OFFSHORE.

TONIGHT...A MORE SOLID EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES THE APPALACHIANS
AND BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS BUILDING 2-3 FT ALL LEGS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY BY EARLY
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW
15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/DPB






000
FXUS62 KCAE 230540
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
140 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAS ENDED ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA.
DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES STILL
ON TAP WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. MAIN FRONT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS STILL WELL
TO OUR NORTH. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH...WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SOME DRIER AIR ENTERING OUR REGION TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. IN THE MEANTIME HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXISTS...WITH
MVFR VSBYS ALREADY DEVELOPING AT CAE/CUB AND SOME OTHER LOCATIONS TO
THE NORTH. LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE SURFACE AND/OR BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WHICH ARE STAYING UP JUST ENOUGH TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE.
WILL INDICATE MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONCE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND ANY FOG DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR TODAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVTIY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 230540
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
140 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAS ENDED ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA.
DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES STILL
ON TAP WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. MAIN FRONT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS STILL WELL
TO OUR NORTH. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH...WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SOME DRIER AIR ENTERING OUR REGION TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. IN THE MEANTIME HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXISTS...WITH
MVFR VSBYS ALREADY DEVELOPING AT CAE/CUB AND SOME OTHER LOCATIONS TO
THE NORTH. LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE SURFACE AND/OR BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WHICH ARE STAYING UP JUST ENOUGH TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE.
WILL INDICATE MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONCE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND ANY FOG DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR TODAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVTIY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 230526
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
126 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/

EVENING UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA AROUND
MACON...AND SOME AREAS COULD BE DENSE AT TIMES. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S
WITH WET GROUNDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE
ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS... AND WITH DRIER
AIR EXPECTED TO FILTER SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT... NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT IS STILL
ACROSS NORTH GA AND NOT MOVING SOUTHWARD VERY FAST. /39

EVENING UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/
ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW PUSHING INTO NW GA... THE
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AND DRIVING UPPER DISTURBANCE ARE ALL
PUSHING EAST AND TAKING THE THREAT OF THUNDER WITH IT. RADAR SHOWING
ONLY A FEW LINGERING STORMS IN OUR FAR SW FORECAST AREA NEAR
LYONS... AND THESE STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 8 PM. HAVE
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NORTH AND MOST OF CENTRAL GA FOR
THIS EVENING... EXCEPT HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO LOUISVILLE LINE THROUGH 10 PM WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND 500-800 CAPE STILL LINGER.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS ATLANTA METRO AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT... THEN CSG-MCN BY 02-04 AM. MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL
PATCH OF -RA UNTIL FROPA...THEN EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH A
5-10 MPH NW WIND USHERING IN A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS FOR WED. /39

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. WEAK DYNAMICS AND LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE
CWA AFTER 06Z SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
THE RAIN SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z. LOOKING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME COOL AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER FROPA BUT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN FORECAST MAINLY CENTRAL ZONES.
OTHERWISE A BLEND OF MODEL TEMPERATURES LOOKS OKAY.

41

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/
HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS...MAINLY FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE RUNS OUT AHEAD OF THE INSTABILITY AND
THE FRONT...AND WHILE ALL DEEP MOISTURE HAS EXITED BY FRIDAY
MORNING...THERE COULD BE CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE CIN THAT FORMS OVER THE REGION AND
ALTHOUGH THE CIN IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
LIMIT ANY CONVECTION. WILL KEEP LOW END POPS GOING ON FRIDAY. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

17

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
PRETTY DIFFICULT TO FIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE PRESSURE
PATTERN...BUT IT IS PRETTY WELL DEPICTED ACROSS NORTHERN GA IN THE
DEWPOINT FIELD. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL GA. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED AT ATL AT THIS
TIME...BUT IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED PATCHY FOG MAY FORM.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW BEFORE 12Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON RESTRICTED VSBYS AND WIND SHIFT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          77  48  78  59 /   0   0   5  20
ATLANTA         74  53  79  61 /   0   0   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     71  43  74  54 /   0   0   5  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  43  79  58 /   0   0   5  30
COLUMBUS        79  54  80  60 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     74  50  75  59 /   0   0   5  30
MACON           80  49  82  60 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            74  43  80  58 /   0   5   5  30
PEACHTREE CITY  76  45  80  59 /   0   0   5  10
VIDALIA         81  58  83  62 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCHS 230445
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1245 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE
NORTH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST AND ATTENDANT
DNVA/SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SOME LOW STRATUS LIKELY TO
REFORM AS THE HIGHER CLOUD CANOPIES PUSH OFFSHORE. A LIGHTER WIND
FIELD COUPLED WITH WET GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES WILL SUPPORT
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH
SUNRISE. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL
DEVELOP...BUT SOME FOG IS LIKELY. WILL BE WATCHING THIS AREA
CAREFULLY FOR A POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...NUDGED
LOWS THIS MORNING UP A DEGREE OR SO BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL START THE DAY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE DEEP RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD IN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF FORCING AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THEY WILL STILL TOP
OUT AROUND NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REACH ITS MAX INFLUENCE ON THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE FEATURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THEN BY FRIDAY...A MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL
MOVE IN ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW PROGRESSING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MAY HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE
PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. BUT BY FRIDAY...THE INVERSION WEAKENS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR 500-1000 J/KG WITHIN A BROAD CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WILL BE
ONCE AGAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL...HELD DOWN A BIT BY
THE ONSHORE FLOW. FRIDAY WILL THEN SEE VALUES IN THE 80S THANKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A RAIN-FREE FORECAST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE LOW/MID 80S
EACH DAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
LATEST FORECAST AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KSAV...LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
AS CLOUDS CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA SO THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD THAT SOME FOG AND STRATUS WILL
IMPACT THE KSAV TERMINAL WITH THE INITIAL TRAFFIC PUSH THIS
MORNING. IT IS UNCLEAR ATTM HOW LOW CONDITIONS WILL GET WITH SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE ESSENTIALLY USELESS AT THIS JUNCTURE. WILL CALL FOR
PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS 08-12Z WITH TEMPO IFR VSBYS/CIGS FROM
10-12Z...HOWEVER IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT PREVAILING LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. ONCE THE FOG AND
STRATUS BURN OFF...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

KCHS...VFR FOR THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP
THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT WINDS SHOULD KEEP ANY IMPACTS LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE TUESDAY EVENING...OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH HAD DISRUPTED THE PRESSURE PATTERN
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS...AND THIS REGIME WILL
CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH/EAST THROUGH GEORGIA WATERS. IN
GENERAL...OFFSHORE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE NW TOWARD THE N. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2-3 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER GA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDE BY TO THE EAST THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL
START OFF WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL VEER AROUND TO MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE BY SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...WITH SEAS 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY THEN 1-3 FT
THEREAFTER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST







000
FXUS62 KCAE 230249
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1047 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAS ENDED ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA.
DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES STILL
ON TAP WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

GFS/LAMP MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG 08Z-13Z AND EVEN IFR
AT AGS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. NAM AND RUC DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL JET FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THUS NO FOG. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS
DIMINISHING...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG AT THE FOG PRONG LOCATIONS OF
AGS/OGB. AFTER 14Z...VFR EXPECTED ALL SITES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND 10 KTS OR LESS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 230249
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1047 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAS ENDED ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA.
DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES STILL
ON TAP WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

GFS/LAMP MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG 08Z-13Z AND EVEN IFR
AT AGS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. NAM AND RUC DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL JET FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THUS NO FOG. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS
DIMINISHING...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG AT THE FOG PRONG LOCATIONS OF
AGS/OGB. AFTER 14Z...VFR EXPECTED ALL SITES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND 10 KTS OR LESS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 230210
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1010 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.EVENING UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA AROUND
MACON...AND SOME AREAS COULD BE DENSE AT TIMES. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S
WITH WET GROUNDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE
ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS... AND WITH DRIER
AIR EXPECTED TO FILTER SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT... NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT IS STILL
ACROSS NORTH GA AND NOT MOVING SOUTHWARD VERY FAST. /39

.EVENING UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/
ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW PUSHING INTO NW GA... THE
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AND DRIVING UPPER DISTURBANCE ARE ALL
PUSHING EAST AND TAKING THE THREAT OF THUNDER WITH IT. RADAR SHOWING
ONLY A FEW LINGERING STORMS IN OUR FAR SW FORECAST AREA NEAR
LYONS... AND THESE STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 8 PM. HAVE
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NORTH AND MOST OF CENTRAL GA FOR
THIS EVENING... EXCEPT HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO LOUISVILLE LINE THROUGH 10 PM WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND 500-800 CAPE STILL LINGER.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS ATLANTA METRO AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT... THEN CSG-MCN BY 02-04 AM. MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL
PATCH OF -RA UNTIL FROPA...THEN EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH A
5-10 MPH NW WIND USHERING IN A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS FOR WED. /39


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. WEAK DYNAMICS AND LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE
CWA AFTER 06Z SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
THE RAIN SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z. LOOKING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME COOL AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER FROPA BUT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN FORECAST MAINLY CENTRAL ZONES.
OTHERWISE A BLEND OF MODEL TEMPERATURES LOOKS OKAY.

41


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/
HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS...MAINLY FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE RUNS OUT AHEAD OF THE INSTABILITY AND
THE FRONT...AND WHILE ALL DEEP MOISTURE HAS EXITED BY FRIDAY
MORNING...THERE COULD BE CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE CIN THAT FORMS OVER THE REGION AND
ALTHOUGH THE CIN IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
LIMIT ANY CONVECTION. WILL KEEP LOW END POPS GOING ON FRIDAY. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

17


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
WEAK COLD FRONT JUST PUSHING INTO NW GA WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 03-05Z TONIGHT... THEN CSG-MCN AREAS
BETWEEN 05-07Z TONIGHT. THE DRIVING UPPER DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING
EAST... SO NO THUNDER THREAT. ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL
SKIES SCT AFTER FROPA... CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF -RA WITH
MVFR CIGS THRU 03-04Z THIS EVENING. AFTER FROPA... EXPECT SCT MID
LEVELS CLOUDS AROUND THRU 09Z...THEN EXPECT FEW TO SKC. WEST WINDS
WILL SHIFT NW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 7-10KTS OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE NW WINDS 10G17KTS ON WED DURING DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
GUSTS SHOULD END BY 21-22Z WED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  77  48  78 /  20   0   0   5
ATLANTA         55  74  53  79 /  20   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     45  71  43  74 /  20   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    48  73  43  79 /  20   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        57  79  54  80 /  30   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     53  74  50  75 /  20   0   0   5
MACON           55  80  49  82 /  30   0   0   5
ROME            49  74  43  80 /  20   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  76  45  80 /  30   0   0   5
VIDALIA         59  81  58  83 /  30   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...39













000
FXUS62 KCHS 230153
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
953 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DIMINISHING AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THEN GENERALLY DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCED BY EVENING RAINFALL COULD SUPPORT
SOME FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL START THE DAY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE DEEP RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD IN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF FORCING AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THEY WILL STILL TOP
OUT AROUND NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REACH ITS MAX INFLUENCE ON THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE FEATURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THEN BY FRIDAY...A MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL
MOVE IN ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW PROGRESSING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MAY HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE
PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. BUT BY FRIDAY...THE INVERSION WEAKENS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR 500-1000 J/KG WITHIN A BROAD CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WILL BE
ONCE AGAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL...HELD DOWN A BIT BY
THE ONSHORE FLOW. FRIDAY WILL THEN SEE VALUES IN THE 80S THANKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A RAIN-FREE FORECAST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE LOW/MID 80S
EACH DAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
LATEST FORECAST AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE TUESDAY EVENING...SHOWERS HAD ENDED AT KCHS AND WERE POISED
TO EXIT KSAV. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT COULD SUPPORT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND 12Z-
14Z...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV WHERE A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE TUESDAY EVENING...OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH HAD DISRUPTED THE PRESSURE PATTERN
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS...AND THIS REGIME WILL
CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH/EAST THROUGH GEORGIA WATERS. IN
GENERAL...OFFSHORE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE NW TOWARD THE N. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2-3 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER GA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDE BY TO THE EAST THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL
START OFF WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL VEER AROUND TO MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE BY SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...WITH SEAS 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY THEN 1-3 FT
THEREAFTER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCAE 230010
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
810 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS
GENERALLY ENDED ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH
RIVER AREA. SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING
EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 01Z. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z.

SHOWERS MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES AT 00Z. WIDESPREAD MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BY 06Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

GFS/LAMP MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG 07Z-13Z. NAM AND
RUC DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL JET FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THUS NO FOG.
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS DIMINISHING...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG
AT THE FOG PRONG LOCATIONS OF AGS/OGB. AFTER 14Z...VFR EXPECTED ALL
SITES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND 10 KTS OR LESS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 230010
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
810 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS
GENERALLY ENDED ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH
RIVER AREA. SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING
EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 01Z. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z.

SHOWERS MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES AT 00Z. WIDESPREAD MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BY 06Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

GFS/LAMP MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG 07Z-13Z. NAM AND
RUC DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL JET FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THUS NO FOG.
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS DIMINISHING...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG
AT THE FOG PRONG LOCATIONS OF AGS/OGB. AFTER 14Z...VFR EXPECTED ALL
SITES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND 10 KTS OR LESS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 222358
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
756 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH
EASTERN ALABAMA WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING. REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP SHOWS MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED AT
THIS TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS
FOR EARLY EVENING SHRA/SLGT CHC TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB ZERO
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDING POSSIBLE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z.

SHOWERS MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES AT 00Z. WIDESPREAD MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BY 06Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

GFS/LAMP MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG 07Z-13Z. NAM AND
RUC DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL JET FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THUS NO FOG.
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS DIMINISHING...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG
AT THE FOG PRONG LOCATIONS OF AGS/OGB. AFTER 14Z...VFR EXPECTED ALL
SITES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND 10 KTS OR LESS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 222358
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
756 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH
EASTERN ALABAMA WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING. REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP SHOWS MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED AT
THIS TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS
FOR EARLY EVENING SHRA/SLGT CHC TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB ZERO
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDING POSSIBLE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z.

SHOWERS MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES AT 00Z. WIDESPREAD MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BY 06Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

GFS/LAMP MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG 07Z-13Z. NAM AND
RUC DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL JET FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THUS NO FOG.
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS DIMINISHING...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG
AT THE FOG PRONG LOCATIONS OF AGS/OGB. AFTER 14Z...VFR EXPECTED ALL
SITES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND 10 KTS OR LESS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 222358
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
756 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH
EASTERN ALABAMA WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING. REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP SHOWS MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED AT
THIS TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS
FOR EARLY EVENING SHRA/SLGT CHC TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB ZERO
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDING POSSIBLE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z.

SHOWERS MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES AT 00Z. WIDESPREAD MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BY 06Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

GFS/LAMP MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG 07Z-13Z. NAM AND
RUC DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL JET FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THUS NO FOG.
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS DIMINISHING...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG
AT THE FOG PRONG LOCATIONS OF AGS/OGB. AFTER 14Z...VFR EXPECTED ALL
SITES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND 10 KTS OR LESS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 222358
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
756 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH
EASTERN ALABAMA WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING. REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP SHOWS MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED AT
THIS TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS
FOR EARLY EVENING SHRA/SLGT CHC TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB ZERO
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDING POSSIBLE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z.

SHOWERS MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES AT 00Z. WIDESPREAD MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BY 06Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

GFS/LAMP MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG 07Z-13Z. NAM AND
RUC DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL JET FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THUS NO FOG.
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS DIMINISHING...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG
AT THE FOG PRONG LOCATIONS OF AGS/OGB. AFTER 14Z...VFR EXPECTED ALL
SITES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND 10 KTS OR LESS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 222340
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.EVENING UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW PUSHING INTO NW GA... THE
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AND DRIVING UPPER DISTURBANCE ARE ALL
PUSHING EAST AND TAKING THE THREAT OF THUNDER WITH IT. RADAR SHOWING
ONLY A FEW LINGERING STORMS IN OUR FAR SW FORECAST AREA NEAR
LYONS... AND THESE STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 8 PM. HAVE
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NORTH AND MOST OF CENTRAL GA FOR
THIS EVENING... EXCEPT HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO LOUISVILLE LINE THROUGH 10 PM WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND 500-800 CAPE STILL LINGER.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS ATLANTA METRO AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT... THEN CSG-MCN BY 02-04 AM. MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL
PATCH OF -RA UNTIL FROPA...THEN EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH A
5-10 MPH NW WIND USHERING IN A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS FOR WED. /39


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. WEAK DYNAMICS AND LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE
CWA AFTER 06Z SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
THE RAIN SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z. LOOKING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME COOL AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER FROPA BUT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN FORECAST MAINLY CENTRAL ZONES.
OTHERWISE A BLEND OF MODEL TEMPERATURES LOOKS OKAY.

41


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/
HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS...MAINLY FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE RUNS OUT AHEAD OF THE INSTABILITY AND
THE FRONT...AND WHILE ALL DEEP MOISTURE HAS EXITED BY FRIDAY
MORNING...THERE COULD BE CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE CIN THAT FORMS OVER THE REGION AND
ALTHOUGH THE CIN IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
LIMIT ANY CONVECTION. WILL KEEP LOW END POPS GOING ON FRIDAY. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

17


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
WEAK COLD FRONT JUST PUSHING INTO NW GA WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 03-05Z TONIGHT... THEN CSG-MCN AREAS
BETWEEN 05-07Z TONIGHT. THE DRIVING UPPER DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING
EAST... SO NO THUNDER THREAT. ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL
SKIES SCT AFTER FROPA... CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF -RA WITH
MVFR CIGS THRU 03-04Z THIS EVENING. AFTER FROPA... EXPECT SCT MID
LEVELS CLOUDS AROUND THRU 09Z...THEN EXPECT FEW TO SKC. WEST WINDS
WILL SHIFT NW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 7-10KTS OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE NW WINDS 10G17KTS ON WED DURING DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
GUSTS SHOULD END BY 21-22Z WED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  77  48  78 /  20   0   0   5
ATLANTA         55  74  53  79 /  20   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     45  71  43  74 /  20   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    48  73  43  79 /  20   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        57  79  54  80 /  30   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     53  74  50  75 /  20   0   0   5
MACON           55  80  49  82 /  30   0   0   5
ROME            49  74  43  80 /  20   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  76  45  80 /  30   0   0   5
VIDALIA         59  81  58  83 /  30   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...39










000
FXUS62 KCHS 222338
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
738 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TUESDAY EVENING...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE E/SE...DEEPER INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AND HEADED FOR THE COAST. LIGHTNING WAS
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO MULTICELL CONVECTION ALONG THE I-16
CORRIDOR WHERE A POOL OF SURFACE BASED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICES -2 TO -3C EXISTED ALONG/SOUTH OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES PUSHING INTO THIS REGION FROM THE N/W. LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V PROFILES MARKED BY 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES 7-8 C/KM AND
DOWNDRAFT CAPES 500-700 J/KG SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS
30-40 MPH MAINLY ALONG THE I-16 CORRIDOR BUT EVEN NE ALONG THE SC
COAST WHERE SHOWERS OCCUR. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST POPS TAPERED FROM CHANCE/LIKELY
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING TO SLIGHT CHANCE THEN LESS THEN 15
PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING OR
DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
WILL LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
FRONT. THEREFORE...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS JUST AHEAD
OF THE PRIMARY FRONT...AND THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO TREND MORE IN
THIS DIRECTION WITH LATER UPDATES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S..WITH SOME LOWER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL START THE DAY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE DEEP RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD IN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF FORCING AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THEY WILL STILL TOP
OUT AROUND NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REACH ITS MAX INFLUENCE ON THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE FEATURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THEN BY FRIDAY...A MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL
MOVE IN ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW PROGRESSING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MAY HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE
PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. BUT BY FRIDAY...THE INVERSION WEAKENS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR 500-1000 J/KG WITHIN A BROAD CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WILL BE
ONCE AGAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL...HELD DOWN A BIT BY
THE ONSHORE FLOW. FRIDAY WILL THEN SEE VALUES IN THE 80S THANKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A RAIN-FREE FORECAST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE LOW/MID 80S
EACH DAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
LATEST FORECAST AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY SHOWERS WILL IMPACT KCHS THIS EVENING...WHILE GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT KSAV. THEN...SHOWERS WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED WITHIN THE COLD
FRONTAL TROUGH COULD SUPPORT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z
AND 12Z-14Z...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS INSUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK LOW LEVEL JETTING IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME
AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ELEVATED UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 KT MUCH OF
THIS EVENING. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE
THIS EVENING OR DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FLOW WILL
SHIFT WESTERLY AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-3 FT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDE BY TO THE EAST THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL
START OFF WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL VEER AROUND TO MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE BY SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...WITH SEAS 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY THEN 1-3 FT
THEREAFTER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/JAQ/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 222207
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
607 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WAS
ADVANCING THROUGH INLAND COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...MOVING
TOWARD THE E/SE AND HEADED FOR THE COAST. DUE IN PART TO MIXED
LAYER CAPES AT OR BELOW 500 J/KG UPDRAFTS WERE NOT PARTICULARLY
DEEP OR PERSISTENT...THUS LIGHTNING REMAINED SPORADIC/FAIRLY
SPARSE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V PROFILES MARKED BY 0-3 KM
LAPSE RATES 8-9 C/KM AND DOWNDRAFT CAPES 800-900 J/KG SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH EVEN WHERE SHOWERS OCCUR.
OTHERWISE...DEEP MOIST UPDRAFTS WILL BRIEFLY/OCCASIONALLY SUPPORT
A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND EVEN SMALL HAIL GIVEN
HAIL CAPES AS HIGH AS 100-200 J/KG AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS JUST
BELOW 10K FT. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST EVENING POPS TAPERED FROM CHANCE/LIKELY INLAND TO
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE AT THE COAST.

ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING OR
DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
WILL LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
FRONT. THEREFORE...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS JUST AHEAD
OF THE PRIMARY FRONT...AND THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO TREND MORE IN
THIS DIRECTION WITH LATER UPDATES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S..WITH SOME LOWER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL START THE DAY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE DEEP RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD IN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF FORCING AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THEY WILL STILL TOP
OUT AROUND NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REACH ITS MAX INFLUENCE ON THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE FEATURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THEN BY FRIDAY...A MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL
MOVE IN ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW PROGRESSING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MAY HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE
PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. BUT BY FRIDAY...THE INVERSION WEAKENS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR 500-1000 J/KG WITHIN A BROAD CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WILL BE
ONCE AGAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL...HELD DOWN A BIT BY
THE ONSHORE FLOW. FRIDAY WILL THEN SEE VALUES IN THE 80S THANKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A RAIN-FREE FORECAST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE LOW/MID 80S
EACH DAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
LATEST FORECAST AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AT KCHS AND KSAV. A BAND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
TERMINALS IN THE 23-03Z TIME FRAME...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED
LIMITED COVERAGE HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAF/S
FOR THE TIME BEING. WILL AMEND TAFS IF NECESSARY GIVEN NEAR TERM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
PATCHY FOG TO PRECEDE ITS PASSAGE MAINLY IN THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK LOW LEVEL JETTING IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME
AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ELEVATED UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 KT MUCH OF
THIS EVENING. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE
THIS EVENING OR DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FLOW WILL
SHIFT WESTERLY AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-3 FT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDE BY TO THE EAST THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL
START OFF WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL VEER AROUND TO MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE BY SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...WITH SEAS 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY THEN 1-3 FT
THEREAFTER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ/SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH/JAQ/SPR
MARINE...BSH/JAQ/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCAE 222051
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
451 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH
EASTERN ALABAMA WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING. REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP SHOWS MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED AT
THIS TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS
FOR EARLY EVENING SHRA/SLGT CHC TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB ZERO
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDING POSSIBLE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE TAF SITES THROUGH
23/01Z AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CEILINGS REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT...
THOUGH VSBYS COULD DECREASE TO IFR IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND COULD GET
A WIND GUST TO 30 KTS. KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES SINCE
THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR OR LOWER IS RELATIVELY LOW. EXPECT
WESTERLY WIND AROUND 10 KTS GUSTING NEAR 20 KTS. EXPECT CLEARING
AFTER 04Z BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHWEST.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 222051
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
451 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH
EASTERN ALABAMA WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING. REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP SHOWS MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED AT
THIS TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS
FOR EARLY EVENING SHRA/SLGT CHC TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB ZERO
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDING POSSIBLE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE TAF SITES THROUGH
23/01Z AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CEILINGS REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT...
THOUGH VSBYS COULD DECREASE TO IFR IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND COULD GET
A WIND GUST TO 30 KTS. KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES SINCE
THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR OR LOWER IS RELATIVELY LOW. EXPECT
WESTERLY WIND AROUND 10 KTS GUSTING NEAR 20 KTS. EXPECT CLEARING
AFTER 04Z BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHWEST.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 222051
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
451 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH
EASTERN ALABAMA WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING. REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP SHOWS MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED AT
THIS TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS
FOR EARLY EVENING SHRA/SLGT CHC TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB ZERO
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDING POSSIBLE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE TAF SITES THROUGH
23/01Z AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CEILINGS REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT...
THOUGH VSBYS COULD DECREASE TO IFR IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND COULD GET
A WIND GUST TO 30 KTS. KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES SINCE
THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR OR LOWER IS RELATIVELY LOW. EXPECT
WESTERLY WIND AROUND 10 KTS GUSTING NEAR 20 KTS. EXPECT CLEARING
AFTER 04Z BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHWEST.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 222051
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
451 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH
EASTERN ALABAMA WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING. REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP SHOWS MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED AT
THIS TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS
FOR EARLY EVENING SHRA/SLGT CHC TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB ZERO
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDING POSSIBLE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE TAF SITES THROUGH
23/01Z AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CEILINGS REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT...
THOUGH VSBYS COULD DECREASE TO IFR IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND COULD GET
A WIND GUST TO 30 KTS. KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES SINCE
THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR OR LOWER IS RELATIVELY LOW. EXPECT
WESTERLY WIND AROUND 10 KTS GUSTING NEAR 20 KTS. EXPECT CLEARING
AFTER 04Z BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHWEST.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 222023
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
423 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NEARING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE A SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE SC
MIDLANDS AND EAST-CENTRAL GA...WITH THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT STILL
WELL BACK TO THE WEST EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SOARED
INTO THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALOFT AND
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST ARE ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S DUE TO THE
SEA BREEZE WHICH REMAINS PINNED TO THE COAST DUE TO THE WESTERLY
SYNOPTIC FLOW.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ENTER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 5 PM...THEN PROGRESS TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. COVERAGE COULD BE A BIT LOWER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA...BUT STILL FORECASTING ABOUT A 30-40
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH CAPE VALUES PEAKING UPWARDS OF AROUND 750
J/KG AND LI/S FALLING TO AS LOW AS -3C. UPDRAFT STRENGTH DOES NOT
APPEAR ALL THAT FAVORABLE...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. COULD NOT
RULE OUT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH GIVEN AN INVERTED V-SOUNDING AND MINIMAL
DCAPE VALUES AROUND 300-400 J/KG...AND ALSO SOME SMALL HAIL WITH
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS JUST BELOW 10K FT.

ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING OR
DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
WILL LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
FRONT. THEREFORE...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS JUST AHEAD
OF THE PRIMARY FRONT...AND THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO TREND MORE IN
THIS DIRECTION WITH LATER UPDATES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S..WITH SOME LOWER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL START THE DAY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE DEEP RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD IN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF FORCING AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THEY WILL STILL TOP
OUT AROUND NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REACH ITS MAX INFLUENCE ON THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE FEATURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THEN BY FRIDAY...A MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL
MOVE IN ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW PROGRESSING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MAY HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE
PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. BUT BY FRIDAY...THE INVERSION WEAKENS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR 500-1000 J/KG WITHIN A BROAD CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WILL BE
ONCE AGAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL...HELD DOWN A BIT BY
THE ONSHORE FLOW. FRIDAY WILL THEN SEE VALUES IN THE 80S THANKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A RAIN-FREE FORECAST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE LOW/MID 80S
EACH DAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
LATEST FORECAST AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV. A BAND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE 23-03Z TIME FRAME...BUT GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS IN
THE TAF/S FOR THE TIME BEING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
PATCHY FOG TO PRECEDE ITS PASSAGE MAINLY IN THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK LOW LEVEL JETTING IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME
AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ELEVATED UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 KT MUCH OF
THIS EVENING. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE
THIS EVENING OR DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FLOW WILL
SHIFT WESTERLY AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-3 FT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDE BY TO THE EAST THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL
START OFF WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL VEER AROUND TO MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE BY SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...WITH SEAS 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY THEN 1-3 FT
THEREAFTER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...JAQ/BSH







000
FXUS62 KFFC 221922
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
322 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. WEAK DYNAMICS AND LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE
CWA AFTER 06Z SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
THE RAIN SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z. LOOKING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME COOL AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER FROPA BUT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN FORECAST MAINLY CENTRAL ZONES.
OTHERWISE A BLEND OF MODEL TEMPERATURES LOOKS OKAY.

41


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS...MAINLY FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE RUNS OUT AHEAD OF THE INSTABILITY AND
THE FRONT...AND WHILE ALL DEEP MOISTURE HAS EXITED BY FRIDAY
MORNING...THERE COULD BE CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE CIN THAT FORMS OVER THE REGION AND
ALTHOUGH THE CIN IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
LIMIT ANY CONVECTION. WILL KEEP LOW END POPS GOING ON FRIDAY. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

17


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH SOME AREAS OF
IFR IN RAIN. GRADUAL IMPROVING AFTER 00Z. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL SITES LATE THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TIMING AND CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINING ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  77  48  78 /  20   0   0   5
ATLANTA         55  74  53  79 /  20   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     45  71  43  74 /  20   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    48  73  43  79 /  20   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        57  79  54  80 /  30   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     53  74  50  75 /  20   0   0   5
MACON           55  80  49  82 /  30   0   0   5
ROME            49  74  43  80 /  20   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  76  45  80 /  30   0   0   5
VIDALIA         59  81  58  83 /  30   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...41







000
FXUS62 KFFC 221850
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
245 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
CWFA LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHRA/TSRA ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN AL AHEAD A
SHORTWAVE. SFC/500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH THE
PRECIP. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS THE FRONT IS STILL WELL BACK TO
THE WEST. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...SO HAVE FOLLOWED RATHER CLOSELY FOR THE
TIMING OF THE POPS. MODELS ALSO DIMINISH THE COVERAGE OF STORMS A
BIT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS GA. THIS HAS ALSO BEEN A
TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS THE MAIN ENERGY REMAINS WELL
TO THE NORTH.

STILL EXPECT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED SLIGHTLY...BUT
SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL...AND THE SHEAR AND UPPER
FORCING REMAIN WEAK.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT THINGS WILL
CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WED AND THU
KEEPING THE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE. THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY MOVES
EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST BY 00Z FRI. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE AREA BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WED
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN LOW CENTER DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO THE GREAT
LAKE STATES THU AFTERNOON WITH THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO NW GA BY 06Z TO 12Z FRI. THE MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM SO WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE SO WE SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY ISSUES WITH FLOODING. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT MOVES IN SAT MORNING WHICH HELPS TO REINFORCE THE FIRST ONE
AND KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKE A
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THAN A SPRING PATTERN WITH DECENT CAPE AND LOW
SHEAR. STARTING FRIDAY...CAPES AND LIS PEAK EVERYDAY AROUND 18Z
AND FALL OFF RAPIDLY BY 00Z. TEMPS ALSO LOOK MORE LIKE SUMMER
BEGINNING THU WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

01

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH SOME AREAS OF
IFR IN RAIN. GRADUAL IMPROVING AFTER 00Z. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL SITES LATE THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TIMING AND CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINING ELEMENTS.

41

&&



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  51  76  53 /  60  30   0   0
ATLANTA         77  51  74  55 /  60  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     68  43  70  45 /  60  30   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    74  49  73  48 /  60  30   0   0
COLUMBUS        78  56  79  57 /  50  40   5   0
GAINESVILLE     74  49  75  54 /  60  30   0   0
MACON           80  55  79  53 /  50  50   5   0
ROME            75  48  73  46 /  60  30   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  76  51  76  51 /  60  30   5   0
VIDALIA         83  59  80  59 /  50  50   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KCHS 221750
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
150 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST HIGHS UPWARDS BY
AS MUCH AS SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. HIGHS NOW FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER
80S IN MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SEA BREEZE WILL
REMAIN PINNED NEAR THE COAST...BUT TEMPERATURES ONLY BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE BEACHES.

W FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING HOUR WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO QUICKLY WARM BY MIDDAY AS W FLOW TYPICALLY DOES THIS TIME OF
YEAR. BY THIS AFTERNOON...PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION WILL INCREASE
AND TEMPS WILL WARM...PERHAPS SOLID MID 80S MANY AREAS GIVEN LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO WIDELY DIFFER
ON COVERAGE/TIMING OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WITH VARIOUS HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS OFFERING REASONABLE SOLUTIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND TSTMS MOVING INTO OUR INLAND ZONES TOWARD THE 20Z-21Z TIME
FRAME. ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE A COUPLE HOURS
AROUND SUNSET AS THE RIBBON OF 1.4 INCH PWATS SLIDES THROUGH.
OVERALL...THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED FOR CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POOR UPDRAFT POTENTIAL PREVAIL PER
RECENT INSPECTION OF PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SHOWING SURFACE DEW
POINTS STUCK IN THE MID 50S AND PERHAPS EVEN MIXING OUT MORE. THE
DEEP LAYERED WESTERLY FLOW LOOKS UNFAVORABLE FOR MUCH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAINLY PINNED TO THE COAST.
WE MAINTAINED 20/30 POP FOR LATE DAY MOST AREAS AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE.

MAINTAINED LOWER END POPS FOR THIS EVENING...GIVING WAY TO DECREASING
CLOUDS LATE AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MILD DURING THE EVENING WITH
READINGS 65-70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE THE
REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SLIDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
QUIET/DRY CONDITIONS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY MODIFYING ON THURSDAY AS A NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW 80S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AWAY FROM THE COAST. BY THURSDAY...THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...HIGHEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TO START OFF THE
DAY AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE AS A H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
WITH DIURNAL HEAT LOSS IN THE EVENING. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A RAIN-FREE FORECAST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE LOW/MID 80S
EACH DAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
LATEST FORECAST AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV. A BAND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE 23-03Z TIME FRAME...BUT GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS IN
THE TAF/S FOR THE TIME BEING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
PATCHY FOG TO PRECEDE ITS PASSAGE MAINLY IN THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE WATERS TODAY...WINDS WILL BE
PICKING UP FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEYOND 20 NM
OFFSHORE AND LOCALLY ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. SEAS TODAY
RANGING FROM 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-5 FT IN LINGERING SWELL WAVE
20-60 NM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SW JETTING IS POSSIBLE IN FAVORED
MARINE LOCATIONS THIS EVENING BUT 20 KT FLOW MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE
NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LATE TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WITH VEERING FLOW TO A MORE NW TO N COMPONENT OVER
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A SHORT-LIVED NORTHERLY SURGE COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF 15-20 KT WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WINDS/SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE WATERS. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KT WHILE SEAS BUILD NO HIGHER 3 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...DPB







000
FXUS62 KCAE 221740
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
140 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT NEAR TN VALLEY CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SCTD
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SPC WRF AND NSSL WRF MODELS SHOWING
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. LATEST NAM AND GFS BUFKIT
INDICATE THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S. THERE ARE
SOME LIMITING FACTORS SUCH AS LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND H8
WESTERLY FLOW. STRONGER DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. NO LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED AT THIS
TIME WITH THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE TN VALLEY AND NRN GA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHRA/SLGT CHC TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.
SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT
LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB ZERO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
STORM TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDING
POSSIBLE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TODAY...AND PASS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE
SYSTEM...AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN VFR AND INCLUDE VCSH FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF SCTD
CLOUDS AFTER 04Z.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 221740
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
140 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT NEAR TN VALLEY CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SCTD
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SPC WRF AND NSSL WRF MODELS SHOWING
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. LATEST NAM AND GFS BUFKIT
INDICATE THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S. THERE ARE
SOME LIMITING FACTORS SUCH AS LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND H8
WESTERLY FLOW. STRONGER DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. NO LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED AT THIS
TIME WITH THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE TN VALLEY AND NRN GA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHRA/SLGT CHC TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.
SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT
LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB ZERO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
STORM TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDING
POSSIBLE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TODAY...AND PASS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE
SYSTEM...AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN VFR AND INCLUDE VCSH FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF SCTD
CLOUDS AFTER 04Z.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 221435
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1035 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
W FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING HOUR WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO QUICKLY WARM BY MIDDAY AS W FLOW TYPICALLY DOES THIS TIME OF
YEAR. BY THIS AFTERNOON...PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION WILL INCREASE
AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S...PERHAPS SOLID
MID 80S MANY AREAS GIVEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO WIDELY DIFFER ON COVERAGE/TIMING OF PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION WITH VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS OFFERING REASONABLE
SOLUTIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING INTO OUR INLAND ZONES
TOWARD THE 20Z-21Z TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
COVERAGE A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNSET AS THE RIBBON OF 1.4 INCH
PWATS SLIDES THROUGH. OVERALL...THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED FOR
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POOR UPDRAFT
POTENTIAL PREVAIL PER RECENT INSPECTION OF PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SURFACE DEW POINTS STUCK IN THE MID 50S AND PERHAPS EVEN
MIXING OUT MORE. THE DEEP LAYERED WESTERLY FLOW LOOKS UNFAVORABLE
FOR MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAINLY
PINNED TO THE COAST. WE MAINTAINED 20/30 POP FOR LATE DAY MOST
AREAS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE.

MAINTAINED LOWER END POPS FOR THIS EVENING...GIVING WAY TO DECREASING
CLOUDS LATE AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MILD DURING THE EVENING WITH
READINGS 65-70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE THE
REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SLIDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
QUIET/DRY CONDITIONS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY MODIFYING ON THURSDAY AS A NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW 80S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AWAY FROM THE COAST. BY THURSDAY...THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...HIGHEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TO START OFF THE
DAY AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE AS A H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
WITH DIURNAL HEAT LOSS IN THE EVENING. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A RAIN-FREE FORECAST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE LOW/MID 80S
EACH DAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
LATEST FORECAST AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. SMALL CAVEATS
INCLUDE A SHORT WINDOW THIS EVENING WHERE CONVECTIVE RAINS MAY
BRUSH THE COASTAL CORRIDOR AND PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS
OR PATCHY FOG IN THE FRONTAL TROUGH. LOW-END SHOWER CHANCES WOULD
SEEM TO FALL IN THE 23Z TUE TO 03 WED TIME FRAME AND THE 18Z
CYCLE MAY NEED AN ADDITION OF VCSH OR VCTS ONCE TIMING CAN BE
PINNED DOWN A LITTLE BETTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE WATERS TODAY...WINDS WILL BE
PICKING UP FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEYOND 20 NM
OFFSHORE AND LOCALLY ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. LIGHT WEST
WINDS THIS MORNING MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS TODAY RANGING FROM
2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-5 FT IN LINGERING SWELL WAVE 20-60 NM
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SW JETTING IS POSSIBLE IN FAVORED MARINE
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING BUT 20 KT FLOW MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE NORTH
OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LATE TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH VEERING FLOW TO A MORE NW TO N COMPONENT OVER
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A SHORT-LIVED NORTHERLY SURGE COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF 15-20 KT WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WINDS/SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE WATERS. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KT WHILE SEAS BUILD NO HIGHER 3 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB







000
FXUS62 KCAE 221358
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
958 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT NEAR TN VALLEY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD
WITH SCTD SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SPC WRF AND NSSL WRF MODELS
SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA BY AROUND 20Z AND MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 03Z WEDNESDAY. MODELS AND LOCAL
CONVECTIVE CHECKLIST INDICATE THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS
SUCH AS LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND H8 WESTERLY FLOW. STRONGER
DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME COMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER LATEST SPC WRF AND LOCAL WRF SHOW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CURRENT CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA.
ENSEMBLE TRENDS INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB
ZERO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE SOME
SMALL HAIL. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A DRY RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED
CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY BUT CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
EXPECT A COOL MORNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AXIS
THROUGH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE BUT MODELS DIFFER ON
DETAILS WITH ECMWF STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
WEAK. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TODAY...AND PASS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE
SYSTEM...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN VFR AND INCLUDE VCSH FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 221358
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
958 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT NEAR TN VALLEY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD
WITH SCTD SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SPC WRF AND NSSL WRF MODELS
SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA BY AROUND 20Z AND MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 03Z WEDNESDAY. MODELS AND LOCAL
CONVECTIVE CHECKLIST INDICATE THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS
SUCH AS LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND H8 WESTERLY FLOW. STRONGER
DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME COMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER LATEST SPC WRF AND LOCAL WRF SHOW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CURRENT CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA.
ENSEMBLE TRENDS INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB
ZERO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE SOME
SMALL HAIL. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A DRY RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED
CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY BUT CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
EXPECT A COOL MORNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AXIS
THROUGH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE BUT MODELS DIFFER ON
DETAILS WITH ECMWF STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
WEAK. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TODAY...AND PASS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE
SYSTEM...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN VFR AND INCLUDE VCSH FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 221358
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
958 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT NEAR TN VALLEY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD
WITH SCTD SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SPC WRF AND NSSL WRF MODELS
SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA BY AROUND 20Z AND MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 03Z WEDNESDAY. MODELS AND LOCAL
CONVECTIVE CHECKLIST INDICATE THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS
SUCH AS LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND H8 WESTERLY FLOW. STRONGER
DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME COMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER LATEST SPC WRF AND LOCAL WRF SHOW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CURRENT CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA.
ENSEMBLE TRENDS INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB
ZERO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE SOME
SMALL HAIL. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A DRY RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED
CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY BUT CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
EXPECT A COOL MORNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AXIS
THROUGH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE BUT MODELS DIFFER ON
DETAILS WITH ECMWF STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
WEAK. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TODAY...AND PASS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE
SYSTEM...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN VFR AND INCLUDE VCSH FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 221358
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
958 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT NEAR TN VALLEY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD
WITH SCTD SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SPC WRF AND NSSL WRF MODELS
SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA BY AROUND 20Z AND MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 03Z WEDNESDAY. MODELS AND LOCAL
CONVECTIVE CHECKLIST INDICATE THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS
SUCH AS LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND H8 WESTERLY FLOW. STRONGER
DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME COMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER LATEST SPC WRF AND LOCAL WRF SHOW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CURRENT CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA.
ENSEMBLE TRENDS INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB
ZERO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE SOME
SMALL HAIL. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A DRY RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED
CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY BUT CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
EXPECT A COOL MORNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AXIS
THROUGH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE BUT MODELS DIFFER ON
DETAILS WITH ECMWF STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
WEAK. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TODAY...AND PASS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE
SYSTEM...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN VFR AND INCLUDE VCSH FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 221129
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
729 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
CWFA LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHRA/TSRA ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN AL AHEAD A
SHORTWAVE. SFC/500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH THE
PRECIP. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS THE FRONT IS STILL WELL BACK TO
THE WEST. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...SO HAVE FOLLOWED RATHER CLOSELY FOR THE
TIMING OF THE POPS. MODELS ALSO DIMINISH THE COVERAGE OF STORMS A
BIT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS GA. THIS HAS ALSO BEEN A
TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS THE MAIN ENERGY REMAINS WELL
TO THE NORTH.

STILL EXPECT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED SLIGHTLY...BUT
SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL...AND THE SHEAR AND UPPER
FORCING REMAIN WEAK.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT THINGS WILL
CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WED AND THU
KEEPING THE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE. THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY MOVES
EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST BY 00Z FRI. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE AREA BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WED
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN LOW CENTER DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO THE GREAT
LAKE STATES THU AFTERNOON WITH THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO NW GA BY 06Z TO 12Z FRI. THE MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM SO WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE SO WE SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY ISSUES WITH FLOODING. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT MOVES IN SAT MORNING WHICH HELPS TO REINFORCE THE FIRST ONE
AND KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKE A
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THAN A SPRING PATTERN WITH DECENT CAPE AND LOW
SHEAR. STARTING FRIDAY...CAPES AND LIS PEAK EVERYDAY AROUND 18Z
AND FALL OFF RAPIDLY BY 00Z. TEMPS ALSO LOOK MORE LIKE SUMMER
BEGINNING THU WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

01

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WILL CROSS THE
REGION TODAY. DIDN`T MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING TAF...PRECIP
TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD. MVFR CIGS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL SITES
BY THE EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. NW
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TIMING AND CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  51  76  53 /  60  30   0   0
ATLANTA         77  51  74  55 /  60  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     68  43  70  45 /  60  30   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    74  49  73  48 /  60  30   0   0
COLUMBUS        78  56  79  57 /  50  40   5   0
GAINESVILLE     74  49  75  54 /  60  30   0   0
MACON           80  55  79  53 /  50  50   5   0
ROME            75  48  73  46 /  60  30   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  76  51  76  51 /  60  30   5   0
VIDALIA         83  59  80  59 /  50  50   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCHS 221129
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
729 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
W FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING HOUR WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO QUICKLY WARM BY MIDDAY AS W FLOW TYPICALLY DOES THIS TIME OF
YEAR. BY THIS AFTERNOON...PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION WILL INCREASE
AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S...PERHAPS SOLID
MID 80S MANY AREAS GIVEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO WIDELY DIFFER ON COVERAGE/TIMING OF PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION WITH VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS OFFERING REASONABLE
SOLUTIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING INTO OUR INLAND ZONES
TOWARD THE 20Z-21Z TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
COVERAGE A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNSET AS THE RIBBON OF 1.4 INCH
PWATS SLIDES THROUGH. OVERALL...THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED FOR
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POOR UPDRAFT
POTENTIAL PREVAIL PER RECENT INSPECTION OF PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SURFACE DEW POINTS STUCK IN THE MID 50S AND PERHAPS EVEN
MIXING OUT MORE. THE DEEP LAYERED WESTERLY FLOW LOOKS UNFAVORABLE
FOR MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAINLY
PINNED TO THE COAST. WE MAINTAINED 20/30 POP FOR LATE DAY MOST
AREAS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE.

MAINTAINED LOWER END POPS FOR THIS EVENING...GIVING WAY TO DECREASING
CLOUDS LATE AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MILD DURING THE EVENING WITH
READINGS 65-70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE THE
REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SLIDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
QUIET/DRY CONDITIONS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY MODIFYING ON THURSDAY AS A NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW 80S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AWAY FROM THE COAST. BY THURSDAY...THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...HIGHEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TO START OFF THE
DAY AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE AS A H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
WITH DIURNAL HEAT LOSS IN THE EVENING. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A RAIN-FREE FORECAST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE LOW/MID 80S
EACH DAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
LATEST FORECAST AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. SMALL CAVEATS
INCLUDE A SHORT WINDOW THIS EVENING WHERE CONVECTIVE RAINS MAY
BRUSH THE COASTAL CORRIDOR AND PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS
OR PATCHY FOG IN THE FRONTAL TROUGH. LOW-END SHOWER CHANCES WOULD
SEEM TO FALL IN THE 23Z TUE TO 03 WED TIME FRAME AND THE 18Z
CYCLE MAY NEED AN ADDITION OF VCSH OR VCTS ONCE TIMING CAN BE
PINNED DOWN A LITTLE BETTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE WATERS TODAY...WINDS WILL BE
PICKING UP FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEYOND 20 NM
OFFSHORE AND LOCALLY ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. LIGHT WEST
WINDS THIS MORNING MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS TODAY RANGING FROM
2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-5 FT IN LINGERING SWELL WAVE 20-60 NM
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SW JETTING IS POSSIBLE IN FAVORED MARINE
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING BUT 20 KT FLOW MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE NORTH
OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LATE TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH VEERING FLOW TO A MORE NW TO N COMPONENT OVER
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A SHORT-LIVED NORTHERLY SURGE COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF 15-20 KT WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WINDS/SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE WATERS. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KT WHILE SEAS BUILD NO HIGHER 3 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB







000
FXUS62 KCAE 221121
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
721 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS S/W APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS ALONG
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
FRONT/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MODELS AND LOCAL CONVECTIVE CHECKLIST INDICATE THE AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THERE ARE SOME
LIMITING FACTORS SUCH AS LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND H8
WESTERLY FLOW. STRONGER DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME
COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER LATEST SPC WRF AND LOCAL WRF
SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHRA/TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA
OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT
LOW WET BULB ZERO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A DRY RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED
CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY BUT CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
EXPECT A COOL MORNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AXIS
THROUGH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE BUT MODELS DIFFER ON
DETAILS WITH ECMWF STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
WEAK. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BRIEF PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED TODAY. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND PASS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ASSOCIATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN VFR AND INCLUDE VCSH FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 220924
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
524 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS S/W APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS ALONG
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
FRONT/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MODELS AND LOCAL CONVECTIVE CHECKLIST INDICATE THE AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THERE ARE SOME
LIMITING FACTORS SUCH AS LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND H8
WESTERLY FLOW. STRONGER DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME
COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER LATEST SPC WRF AND LOCAL WRF
SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHRA/TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA
OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT
LOW WET BULB ZERO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A DRY RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED
CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY BUT CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
EXPECT A COOL MORNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AXIS
THROUGH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE BUT MODELS DIFFER ON
DETAILS WITH ECMWF STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
WEAK. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EARLY MORNING FOG AT AGS...AND POSSIBLY OGB...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED
TODAY. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND PASS
THROUGH TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN VFR AND
INCLUDE VCSH FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 220924
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
524 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS S/W APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS ALONG
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
FRONT/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MODELS AND LOCAL CONVECTIVE CHECKLIST INDICATE THE AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THERE ARE SOME
LIMITING FACTORS SUCH AS LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND H8
WESTERLY FLOW. STRONGER DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME
COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER LATEST SPC WRF AND LOCAL WRF
SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHRA/TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA
OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT
LOW WET BULB ZERO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A DRY RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED
CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY BUT CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
EXPECT A COOL MORNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AXIS
THROUGH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE BUT MODELS DIFFER ON
DETAILS WITH ECMWF STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
WEAK. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EARLY MORNING FOG AT AGS...AND POSSIBLY OGB...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED
TODAY. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND PASS
THROUGH TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN VFR AND
INCLUDE VCSH FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 220814
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
414 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS S/W APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS ALONG
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
FRONT/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MODELS AND LOCAL CONVECTIVE CHECKLIST INDICATE THE AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THERE ARE SOME
LIMITING FACTORS SUCH AS LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND H8
WESTERLY FLOW. STRONGER DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME
COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER LATEST SPC WRF AND LOCAL WRF
SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHRA/TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA
OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT
LOW WET BULB ZERO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A DRY RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED
CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY BUT CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
EXPECT A COOL MORNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AXIS
THROUGH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE BUT MODELS DIFFER ON
DETAILS WITH ECMWF STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
WEAK. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SATELLITE INDICATES SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH WOULD WORK AGAINST FOG THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM AT MOST
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD PROVIDE A FOG THREAT AT THE FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS...AGS/OGB.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND PASS THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN VFR AND INCLUDE VCSH
FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCHS 220812
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
412 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PRE-DAWN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. AREAS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE OF SOUTH CAROLINA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LEAD
SHORT WAVE PASSING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS SUBTLE RIDGE-FLATTENING
FEATURE WILL MOVE BY PRIOR TO MID MORNING LEAVING BROAD MORNING
SUBSIDENCE IN IT/S WAKE. A BIT OF VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG WAS
AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S WITH SOME COOLER RURAL AREAS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S
EARLY THIS MORNING.

W FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING HOUR WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO QUICKLY WARM BY MIDDAY AS W FLOW TYPICALLY DOES THIS TIME OF
YEAR. BY THIS AFTERNOON...PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION WILL INCREASE
AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S...PERHAPS SOLID
MID 80S MANY AREAS GIVEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO WIDELY DIFFER ON COVERAGE/TIMING OF PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION WITH VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS OFFERING REASONABLE
SOLUTIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING INTO OUR INLAND
ZONES TOWARD THE 20Z-21Z TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED COVERAGE A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNSET AS THE RIBBON OF
1.4 INCH PWATS SLIDES THROUGH. OVERALL...THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED
FOR CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POOR
UPDRAFT POTENTIAL PREVAIL PER RECENT INSPECTION OF PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS SHOWING SURFACE DEW POINTS STUCK IN THE MID 50S AND
PERHAPS EVEN MIXING OUT MORE. THE DEEP LAYERED WESTERLY FLOW LOOKS
UNFAVORABLE FOR MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WITH THE SEA
BREEZE MAINLY PINNED TO THE COAST. WE MAINTAINED 20/30 POP FOR
LATE DAY MOST AREAS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MOISTURE.

MAINTAINED LOWER END POPS FOR THIS EVENING...GIVING WAY TO DECREASING
CLOUDS LATE AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MILD DURING THE EVENING WITH
READINGS 65-70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE THE
REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SLIDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
QUIET/DRY CONDITIONS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY MODIFYING ON THURSDAY AS A NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW 80S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AWAY FROM THE COAST. BY THURSDAY...THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...HIGHEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TO START OFF THE
DAY AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE AS A H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
WITH DIURNAL HEAT LOSS IN THE EVENING. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A RAIN-FREE FORECAST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE LOW/MID 80S
EACH DAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
LATEST FORECAST AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE ON THE 00Z MODEL RUN. AT LEAST A
SLIGHT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SHRA/TSRA AT THE TERMINALS FROM 23Z
TODAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY...CHANCES WELL BELOW ANY TAF MENTIONS AT
THIS STAGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SMALL CHANCES FOR BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT IN THE FRONTAL TROUGH. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE WATERS TODAY...WINDS WILL BE
PICKING UP FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEYOND 20 NM
OFFSHORE AND LOCALLY ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. LIGHT WEST
WINDS THIS MORNING MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS TODAY RANGING FROM
2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-5 FT IN LINGERING SWELL WAVE 20-60 NM
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SW JETTING IS POSSIBLE IN FAVORED MARINE
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING BUT 20 KT FLOW MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE NORTH
OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LATE TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH VEERING FLOW TO A MORE NW TO N COMPONENT OVER
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A SHORT-LIVED NORTHERLY SURGE COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF 15-20 KT WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WINDS/SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE WATERS. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KT WHILE SEAS BUILD NO HIGHER 3 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB







000
FXUS62 KFFC 220802
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
402 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
CWFA LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHRA/TSRA ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN AL AHEAD A
SHORTWAVE. SFC/500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH THE
PRECIP. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS THE FRONT IS STILL WELL BACK TO
THE WEST. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...SO HAVE FOLLOWED RATHER CLOSELY FOR THE
TIMING OF THE POPS. MODELS ALSO DIMINISH THE COVERAGE OF STORMS A
BIT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS GA. THIS HAS ALSO BEEN A
TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS THE MAIN ENERGY REMAINS WELL
TO THE NORTH.

STILL EXPECT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED SLIGHTLY...BUT
SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL...AND THE SHEAR AND UPPER
FORCING REMAIN WEAK.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT THINGS WILL
CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WED AND THU
KEEPING THE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE. THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY MOVES
EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST BY 00Z FRI. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE AREA BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WED
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN LOW CENTER DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO THE GREAT
LAKE STATES THU AFTERNOON WITH THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO NW GA BY 06Z TO 12Z FRI. THE MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM SO WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE SO WE SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY ISSUES WITH FLOODING. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT MOVES IN SAT MORNING WHICH HELPS TO REINFORCE THE FIRST ONE
AND KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKE A
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THAN A SPRING PATTERN WITH DECENT CAPE AND LOW
SHEAR. STARTING FRIDAY...CAPES AND LIS PEAK EVERYDAY AROUND 18Z
AND FALL OFF RAPIDLY BY 00Z. TEMPS ALSO LOOK MORE LIKE SUMMER
BEGINNING THU WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WITH SLOWING THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY DOWN...AND
LATEST TAF SET REFLECTS THAT TREND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DONT
REALLY SHOW PREDOMINATE MVFR CIGS...BUT COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TIMING AND CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  51  76  53 /  60  30   0   0
ATLANTA         77  51  74  55 /  60  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     68  43  70  45 /  60  30   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    74  49  73  48 /  60  30   0   0
COLUMBUS        78  56  79  57 /  50  40   5   0
GAINESVILLE     74  49  75  54 /  60  30   0   0
MACON           80  55  79  53 /  50  50   5   0
ROME            75  48  73  46 /  60  30   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  76  51  76  51 /  60  30   5   0
VIDALIA         83  59  80  59 /  50  50   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA







000
FXUS62 KCAE 220636
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
236 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE AS THE COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
TRACKS EASTWARD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH TN AND GA AN INTO THE UPSTATE. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AND
REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE LOWER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE THE
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY AND MODEST LIFT EXPECTED. MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AIR MASS WILL
BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIMITING FACTOR BEING
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH 850MB WEST FLOW. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT
ALSO APPEARS WEAK. STRONGER DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER LATEST SPC WRF AND
LOCAL WRF SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS ALTHOUGH ADJUST TIMING LATER IN
THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS FRONT NOT MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION UNTIL 03Z- 06Z.

DRY RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED CLOUDS DURING
THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...COOL MORNING THURSDAY DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AXIS THROUGH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE BUT MODELS DIFFER ON DETAILS WITH ECMWF
STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WEAK.  THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SATELLITE INDICATES SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH WOULD WORK AGAINST FOG THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM AT MOST
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD PROVIDE A FOG THREAT AT THE FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS...AGS/OGB.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND PASS THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN VFR AND INCLUDE VCSH
FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 220636
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
236 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE AS THE COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
TRACKS EASTWARD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH TN AND GA AN INTO THE UPSTATE. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AND
REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE LOWER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE THE
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY AND MODEST LIFT EXPECTED. MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AIR MASS WILL
BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIMITING FACTOR BEING
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH 850MB WEST FLOW. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT
ALSO APPEARS WEAK. STRONGER DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER LATEST SPC WRF AND
LOCAL WRF SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS ALTHOUGH ADJUST TIMING LATER IN
THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS FRONT NOT MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION UNTIL 03Z- 06Z.

DRY RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED CLOUDS DURING
THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...COOL MORNING THURSDAY DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AXIS THROUGH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE BUT MODELS DIFFER ON DETAILS WITH ECMWF
STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WEAK.  THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SATELLITE INDICATES SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH WOULD WORK AGAINST FOG THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM AT MOST
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD PROVIDE A FOG THREAT AT THE FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS...AGS/OGB.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND PASS THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN VFR AND INCLUDE VCSH
FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCHS 220531
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
131 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DRIFT IN
FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIE UNDER DEEP RIDGING THAT PREVAILS FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE DELMARVA TONIGHT...BEFORE IT GETS
SHUNTED INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT THAT DROPS EAST AND SE TOWARD THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. A WELL PRONOUNCED NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL
PERSIST AND WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BE CALM OR NEAR CALM AWAY
FROM THE COAST. OTHER THAN A FEW THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES OUR SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR...AND THIS PAVES THE WAY FOR CONTINUED EXCEPTIONAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER OR MIDDLE
50S WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS...SOME UPPER 40S FAR NW ZONES AND CLOSER
TO 60 ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY AS
BROAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL
START THE DAY WELL TO THE WEST AND WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE EASTWARD
INTO THE EVENING. WARM WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AFFECTS...THE RESULT
IS A WARM AFTERNOON FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND ANY
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND DUE TO THE
PREVAILING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION
REVOLVES AROUND CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...ITS
COVERAGE...AND TIMING IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND GOOD WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW LEVELS SHOULD MIX
OUT PRETTY WELL WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION AT A
MINIMUM. IN FACT...HI-RES MODEL RUNS KEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS DO SHOW 500-1000
J/KG OF CAPE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT
GIVEN THAT THE FRONT IS ON A WEAKENING TREND AND DEEP MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED REGARDLESS. I HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AND DON/T RAMP THEM UP UNTIL 21Z AND
BEYOND. GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL AND NEAR STORM
ENVIRONMENT...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE CONVECTION WILL
QUICKLY PROGRESS THROUGH AND OFF THE COAST BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE ISN/T MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOWS WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MUCH DEEPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDE BY JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF DEEP DRY AIR
IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND THE
SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
ONLY BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
BEGIN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING BACK TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA SHOULD FAVOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS PEAK INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...ESPECIALLY WITH ENHANCED TROUGHING FROM
THE NORTH SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...HAVE MAINTAINED OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OR SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS MOISTURE DEEPENS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE ON THE 00Z MODEL RUN. AT LEAST A
SLIGHT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SHRA/TSRA AT THE TERMINALS FROM 23Z
TODAY TO 06Z WEDNESDAY...CHANCES WELL BELOW ANY TAF MENTIONS AT
THIS STAGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...MARITIME LOW PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST/NE AS SOLID RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST/NW ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. AS A RESULT A GENERAL SW AND WEST SYNOPTIC FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. BUT THERE IS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING HIGHER
THAN ABOUT 5 OR 10 KT WITH SUCH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF
BACK SWELL FROM THE DISTANT ATLANTIC LOW...WITH PERIODS SOME 11-13
SECONDS AND HEIGHTS AS MUCH AS 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 4-6 FT
ACROSS AMZ374. IT IS ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS WHERE WE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE SCA UNTIL 2 AM DUE TO THESE ELEVATED SEA CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE MODESTLY...PERHAPS REACHING 15-20
KT AT TIMES. BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A SHORT LIVED
NORTHERLY SURGE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PERIODS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME QUIET AND WINDS WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH TIME. OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KFFC 220522
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
122 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 809 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014/

EVENING UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
PROBABLY MOSTLY VIRGA SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL GA AND ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH GA. THIS IS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE THAT IS QUICKLY PUSHING EAST... SO NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF CLOUDS OR PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS
INITIAL DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE EVENING OR EARLY PART OF OVERNIGHT.
STILL EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL GA BY MORNING. HAVE TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP
A DEGREE OR SO FOR SOME SITES ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WITH A
PREVAILING WARM SW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE ZONES AT THIS
TIME. /39

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014/
RIDGE ALOFT SLIDING EASTWARD AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE OH/TN
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST GA
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY AND PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA BY AFTERNOON. HAVE
INTRODUCED POPS IN THE NORTHWEST BY 06Z AND SPREAD POPS OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL SO NOT LOOKING FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A FEW COULD BECOME STRONG MAINLY DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CAPE AND DAYTIME HEATING. HPC GIVING
GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS
ENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING RETURNS TO
THE SOUTHEAST. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING OVERNIGHT...HAVE
FAVORED THE WARM SIDE OF MIN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST. OTHERWISE MAV/MET BLEND LOOKS OKAY.

41

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014/
EXTENDED MODELS CONSISTENT WITH PUSHING SHORT-TERM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE STATE WITH QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
FRIDAY...WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO DIVERGE WITH THE ONSET
AND DURATION OF THE LATE WEEK - EARLY WEEKEND PRECIPITATION. HAVE
MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST...WITH JUST MINOR EDITS
TO REFRESH THE CURRENT GRIDS. FOR THE END OF THE LONG
TERM...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ANOTHER
VERY WET PERIOD. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

31

/ISSUED 415 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014/
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA BY 00Z-06Z WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE NW.
THIS RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WED AND THU KEEP THE
AREA PRECIPITATION FREE. THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY MOVES EAST OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ND BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAT
BY 00Z FRI. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BEGINS
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WED AFTERNOON. THE MAIN LOW
CENTER DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO THE GREAT LAKE STATES THU AFTERNOON
WITH THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NW GA BY 12Z FRI.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM
THAN THE TUESDAY ONE BUT ITS SHOWING LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE.THERE
IS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES IN SAT MORNING WHICH
HELPS TO REINFORCE THE FIRST ONE AND KEEP CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE MAINLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRI AND SAT AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WITH SLOWING THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY DOWN...AND
LATEST TAF SET REFLECTS THAT TREND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DONT
REALLY SHOW PREDOMINATE MVFR CIGS...BUT COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TIMING AND CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          77  51  77  51 /  60  30   0   0
ATLANTA         75  52  76  55 /  60  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     71  44  74  44 /  60  30   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    73  48  75  45 /  60  30   0   0
COLUMBUS        77  55  79  56 /  50  40   5   0
GAINESVILLE     73  50  74  52 /  60  30   0   0
MACON           78  54  80  53 /  50  50   5   0
ROME            73  48  76  44 /  60  30   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  75  51  77  47 /  60  30   5   0
VIDALIA         79  58  80  58 /  50  50   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...ATWELL






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