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000
FXUS62 KCAE 010852
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
452 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION
TODAY. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ALONG WITH THE
FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE DIGGING TOWARD THE
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY/CSRA THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK
MORE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT QUICKLY EASTWARD AND OFF THE SC COAST BY
LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH A GRADUAL TAPER IN POPS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND THUS WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION MIXED IN
WITH THE LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. OBSERVATIONS AND TRAFFIC
CAMS FROM THE UPSTATE INDICATE SNOW FALLING IN/AROUND THE
GREENVILLE AREA WITH BRIGHT BAND OF PRECIPITATION AT 4 AM THIS
MORNING. DUE TO THIS HAVE MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FAR WESTERN MIDLANDS AND NORTHERN CSRA
DURING THE 10Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME. BELIEVE THIS AREA MAY HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MIX DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW IN THIS AREA AND THE BETTER MOISTURE. MORNING
MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS H850 TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT OR BELOW 0
DEGREES C ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SC. TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -7
DEGREES ACROSS NRN GA/ERN TN AND ACROSS WRN NC. THIS IS ACTUALLY
COLDER THAN ANY OF THE CURRENT MODELS RUNS. EXPECT THESE
IMPRESSIVE H850 TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO
THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE
IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AT CAE ALONG WITH A TEMPERATURE SOUNDING
BELOW FREEZE FROM AROUND 1K FT UPWARD AT 9 AM. THE SOUNDING ALSO
INDICATES A PERIOD OF STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. ALSO CAN NOT RULE OUT SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD ALSO BRING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR GRAUPEL
TO THE AREA. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AND CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH TO MENTION OTHERWISE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT RAIN TO BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE EVENT.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER...NEARLY
15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH 50 DEGREES IN THE MIDLANDS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...THE
POSSIBLY THE LOWER 50S IN THE CSRA. THE OTHER FORECAST ISSUE TO
DEAL WITH DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING SURFACE
GRADIENT AND THE STRONG 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA ON TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.
WITH THE LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
RATHER BREEZY ACROSS THE LAKES THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT LAKE WIND ADVISORY WHICH
RUNS FROM 4 AM THIS MORNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY. SUSTAINED
WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY EVENING...HIGH
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL PREVENT IDEAL STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING
BY KEEPING MUCH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED. THIS MEANS THAT
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE
DETERMINED BY THE COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE INSTEAD OF BY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS PUTS LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. A
FEW COLDER/MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY FALL INTO THE LOWER
30S...BUT MIXING SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. THE BEST NIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEARS TO BE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH UNDER LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR...AND AIRMASS WILL BE DRY. THIS
CREATES IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE TREND IN MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS BEEN TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT MANY LOCATIONS TO
FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW BY SUNRISE MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. DO NOT BELIEVE ANY RECORDS
WILL BE BROKEN...BUT FORECAST TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE RECORDS FOR
AGS AND CAE.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AT A MINIMUM WILL LIKELY NEED A FROST
ADVISORY...BUT WITH CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND OF THE GUIDANCE...IT
LOOKS LIKE A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. HAVE OPTED NOT TO
ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH...BUT A FREEZE WARNING COULD BE ISSUED LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COOL AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST
INTO WEDNESDAY. MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WELL
BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF FREEZING/BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT
STILL REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AROUND
THE SURFACE HIGH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MUCH WARMER
MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AND LESS CONFIDENT BY
MID WEEK...DUE TO TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WED NGT/THU WITH APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS TO CROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER NORTH GA MOVES INTO THE AREA. GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD SEE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW MIX WITH RAIN AT CAE/CUB DURING THE
MORNING.

MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE MIDLANDS TODAY.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL AND SREF INDICATE A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
10Z-18Z. VFR AT AGS/DNL EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR BY SUNRISE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNRISE...BECOMING 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF
THE AREA WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 21Z. STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUST A FEW CLIMATE NOTES FOR THE PERIOD...
THE EARLIEST OFFICIAL SNOWFALL...NOT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL...AT
COLUMBIA IS NOVEMBER 9TH 1913.

THE EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AT COLUMBIA IS NOVEMBER 19TH
1901 WHEN 3.3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL.

LOOKING AT THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WOULD BE NOVEMBER 3RD.

THE RECORD LOW AT COLUMBIA IS 27 DEGREES SET IN 1963 AND 1954.
THE RECORD LOW AT AUGUSTA IS 22 DEGREES SET IN 1954.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$
77





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000
FXUS62 KFFC 010811
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
411 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GETTING PLENTY OF REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES THIS MORNING
BUT STILL HAVE NOT SEEN ANY REPORTS OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. BEFORE THIS IS OVER STILL EXPECTING TO SEE A HALF TO 1 INCH
ACCUMULATION WITH POSSIBLY 2 INCHES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
NE GA MOUNTAINS. WINDS ARE BLOWING OUT OF THE NW WITH SPEEDS
STEADILY INCREASING. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 15-20KT RANGE
GUSTING TO 25KTS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE
20-25KT RANGE GUSTING 30-35KT BY 16-20Z. TEMPS HAVE ALSO DIPPED INTO
THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE CWA WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS
EXTREME NORTH GA. TEMP ARE STILL FALLING SO LOOKS LIKE THE CURRENT
FREEZE WARNING...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WIND ADVISORY ARE
VERIFYING AS EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MOVING NE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH 12Z SUN.
THIS LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NE ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 00Z MON. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS IN IT WILL HELP TO RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL
SEE WINDS DIMINISH TO 10KT OR LESS BY 18Z SUN TO 00Z MON. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THE WINDS WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THEN
SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COLD AIRMASS
SETTING UP OVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THINGS PRETTY COL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY GET UP INTO THE 40S AND
50S WITH LOW TEMPS TONIGHT BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S AND 30S CWA WIDE.
WE CURRENTLY HAVE A FREEZE WATCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED BACK DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING HAVE DECIDED TO UP
GRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR TONIGHT. TEMPS BEGIN TO REBOUND
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BUT MONDAY MORNING LOWS WILL
BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S AND 30S.

01


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG
TERM...BUT BY MID WEEK THEY START DIVERGING. H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN RIDGE...THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
DIFFERENCES IN THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP AS THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE ON
THE TIMING AND BROUGHT POPS INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE CWA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER
THE EAST COAST PUTTING THE CWA INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE 70S UNDER THE H5 RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ANOTHER
BURST OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

17


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH WINDS INCREASING AND LIGHT SHOWERS/SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUEL MOISTURES THIS AFTERNOON TO
SEE IF A FIRE WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED. THERE ARE A FEW
ISOLATED LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THAT MAY
REACH FIRE DANGER CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
REMAIN TOO HIGH SO NO CHANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING. WINDS DROP
ENOUGH SUNDAY THAT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALSO DIMINISH.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NW AND BLOWING PRETTY STRONG THIS MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS ARE IN THE 15-20KT RANGE GUSTING TO 30KT. THESE WINDS ARE
ONLY GOING TO INCREASE TODAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 18Z IN THE 20-25KT RANGE GUSTING
TO 35KT. THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY 00Z SUN AND
CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVING SE IN THE NWLY FLOW BUT THEY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA BY 18Z AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER MOVES NE. CEILINGS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE BETWEEN 09-14Z. THESE CEILINGS
WILL WILL LIFT INTO THE VFR RANGE BY 15-16Z AND SCT OUT AFTER THAT.
WITH WINDS STAY UP THROUGH THE PERIOD NOT EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTIONS
TO VSBYS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          50  30  57  32 /  20   5   0   0
ATLANTA         49  31  55  39 /  10   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     42  26  51  31 /  60  10   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    48  28  54  29 /  20   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        54  33  60  37 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     48  31  55  33 /  20   5   0   0
MACON           55  32  59  30 /   5   0   0   0
ROME            49  29  55  29 /  20   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  51  28  56  29 /  10   0   0   0
VIDALIA         55  37  60  33 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...
GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...
JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...
MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...
FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...
GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...
TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TOWNS...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...
UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...
TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...
GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...
DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...
HENRY...JACKSON...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MERIWETHER...
MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...PAULDING...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
TALBOT...TOWNS...TROUP...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...
WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01






000
FXUS62 KCAE 010730
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
330 AM EDT SAT NOV  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ALONG WITH THE FIRST
FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED ON AREA LAKES OVERNIGHT..ESPECIALLY CLARKS HILL. LAKE
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT AT 4AM.

AS OF 02Z...REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF SOME
SMALL HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING
DUE TO THE RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND WEAK INSTABILITY.
STORMS WILL TAPER OFF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE DIGGING TOWARD THE
CSRA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE
REGIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS
LOCATED. WINDS HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY
MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS WITH A GRADUAL TAPER IN POPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS
WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A FEW REPORTS OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION MIXED IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN
EARLY SATURDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE FAR
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA DURING THE 10Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME. BELIEVE
THIS AREA MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MIX DUE TO THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW IN THIS AREA AND THE BETTER
MOISTURE. 850 TEMPS ARE EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE AT -5 TO -6 IN PARTS
OF THE CSRA. THE 18Z NAM HAS MOISTURE AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE MARGINAL. ALSO
CAN NOT RULE OUT SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...WHICH COULD ALSO BRING SOME GRAUPEL TO THE AREA. NO
ACCUMS...AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. EXPECT RAIN TO BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE EVENT.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER...NEARLY
15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH 50 DEGREES IN THE MIDLANDS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...THE
POSSIBLY THE LOWER 50S IN THE CSRA. THE OTHER FORECAST ISSUE TO
DEAL WITH DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING SURFACE
GRADIENT AND THE STRONG 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE SATURDAY
EVENING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN RATHER BREEZY
ACROSS THE LAKES FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT LAKE WIND ADVISORY WHICH RUNS FROM 10 AM
EDT SATURDAY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY
EVENING.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
PREVENT IDEAL STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING BY
KEEPING MUCH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED. THIS MEANS THAT
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE DETERMINED
BY THE COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE INSTEAD OF BY RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THIS PUTS LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. THE BEST NIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEARS TO BE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH UNDER LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR...AND AIRMASS WILL BE DRY. THIS
CREATES IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH UPPER 20S REMAINING POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. SOME OF THE NUMBERS FOR BUSH FIELD
STILL TRY TO TAKE THE TEMPERATURE DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER
20S...WHICH IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND SEASONABLY COLD FOR EARLY
NOVEMBER.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AT A MINIMUM WILL LIKELY NEED A FROST
ADVISORY...BUT IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE DOWNWARD TREND...AND IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...A FREEZE WARNING
MAN BE NEEDED INSTEAD FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THESE WOULD BE
ISSUED WITH LATER PACKAGES IF NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COOL AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST
INTO WEDNESDAY. MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WELL
BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF FREEZING/BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT
STILL REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AROUND
THE SURFACE HIGH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MUCH WARMER
MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AND LESS CONFIDENT BY
MID WEEK...DUE TO TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WED NGT/THU WITH APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING WAS EAST OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER TN MOVES INTO THE
AREA. GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT COULD SEE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW MIX WITH
RAIN AT CAE/CUB DURING THE MORNING.

MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE MIDLANDS TODAY.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL AND SREF INDICATE A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
10Z-18Z. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IFR. VFR AT
AGS/DNL EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR BY SUNRISE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH SUNRISE...BECOMING 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30
KNOTS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 21Z. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 010645
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
245 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH NOT UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA WE ARE ALREADY GETTING WINDS TO
AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA PERIODICALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADVANCED THE ONSET OF THE
WIND ADVISORY TO 11PM NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO
COVINGTON AND ATHENS. ALREADY GETTING REPORTS OF RAIN/SNOW MIX OR
EVEN A COMPLETE CHANGE-OVER IN THE FAR NORTH. NOTHING OVER TRACE
ACCUMULATIONS YET BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING TO FREEZING UP
THERE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NO CHANGES TO THE ANTICIPATED
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

UPDATE...
INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISH. WINDS ARE BEGINNING
TO INCREASE AS WELL AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS REACHED BEFORE SUN UP.
CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS REMAIN ON TRACK SO NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE FAR NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD TOWARD THE STATE FROM THE MID-OHIO VALLEY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVER-NIGHT HOURS.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH GEORGIA. ALL THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH DIVING A STRONG
UPPER LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. ALREADY SEE LIGHT RETURNS ON
RADAR ACROSS THE CWA WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER WITH THE DRY AIR
MOST OF THE PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. MAIN FOCUS OF THE
SHORT TERM IS THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT
WILL AFFECT NORTH GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO NORTH GEORGIA GENERALLY IN
THE MIDNIGHT TO MID MORNING TIME FRAME. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AT BRASSTOWN BALD BY 06Z WITH
THE COLUMN SATURATED BELOW ABOUT 800MB. WITH A CONDUCIVE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...EXPECT SOME OF THE SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS IN THE NORTH GEORGIA
MOUNTAINS WITH AROUND TWO INCHES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS
LINES UP WELL WITH THE SPREAD OF GUIDANCE. GIVEN THIS SETUP AND
FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATION...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH MID SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS THAT MAY SEE A FLURRY
TO A DUSTING HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN AN SPS.

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO
MAKE IT. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM SO HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEING
FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE METRO AREA.
EVEN THOUGH PARTS OF THE NORTHERN METRO AREA COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AROUND THE 12Z TIME PERIOD...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION.

WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP TONIGHT ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND BY
SATURDAY SOME AREAS MAY EVEN SEE WINDS GUSTS TO 40MPH. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CWA FOR SATURDAY. THE
STRONG WINDS ON SATURDAY COMBINED WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY ALLOW FOR THE WIND CHILL VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO REACH
THE 30S IN THE NORTHEAST...40S ACROSS THE METRO AREA AND 50S
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. END RESULT...ITS GOING TO FEEL VERY COLD
TOMORROW AND IF YOURE SPENDING ANY TIME OUTSIDE DRESS
APPROPRIATELY.

COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH BOTH
HIGH AND LOW TEMPS BEING WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE ABOUT TWENTY DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR THE MOST
PART...NOT EXPECTING TO BREAK ANY RECORDS FOR LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. CSG IS THE ONLY EXCEPTION WITH THE FORECAST BEING
WITHIN ONE DEGREE OF THE RECORD. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACROSS FAR NORTH
GEORGIA...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN TO FREEZING TONIGHT AND THUS
HAVE CONTINUED THE FREEZE WARNING. EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
FORECAST TO REACH FREEZING OR BELOW AND THUS A FREEZE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

11/RW

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE WEATHER EXCITEMENT OF THE SHORT TERM...THE LONG TERM
SEEMS A LITTLE BENIGN. EXTENDED BEGINS WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE AS HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVETRAIN PUSHES EAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT
ANOTHER COOL DAY SUNDAY /THOUGH NOT QUITE AS COLD AS SATURDAY/ AND
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING AGAIN WITH CALM WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
LIKELY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZE/FROST PRODUCTS SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT WILL DEAL WITH THAT TOMORROW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVER THE
AREA...AND REALLY FAIRLY PLEASANT BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH
PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE TO THE AREA AS WELL AS THE FRONT ELONGATES AND STRETCHES
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
TO POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES BUILDING IN ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE MOISTURE WASHES OUT. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO MAKE
ANY CHANGES BEYOND THAT AS WELL. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

TDP

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 508 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AND SATURDAY NIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 20S IN
THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK
WITH SOME TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD BE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF THIS NEXT FRONT...HOWEVER LOW POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

41

FIRE WEATHER...
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUEL MOISTURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SINCE WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY MEET FIRE DANGER CRITERIA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN TOO HIGH SO NO CHANCE OF A RED
FLAG WARNING BUT IF FUEL MOISTURES DROP TONIGHT...MAY HAVE TO
ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR SATURDAY. WINDS DROP ENOUGH
SUNDAY THAT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALSO DIMINISH.

TDP

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NW AND BLOWING PRETTY STRONG THIS MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS ARE IN THE 15-20KT RANGE GUSTING TO 30KT. THESE WINDS ARE
ONLY GOING TO INCREASE TODAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 18Z IN THE 20-25KT RANGE GUSTING
TO 35KT. THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY 00Z SUN AND
CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVING SE IN THE NWLY FLOW BUT THEY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA BY 18Z AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER MOVES NE. CEILINGS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE BETWEEN 09-14Z. THESE CEILINGS
WILL WILL LIFT INTO THE VFR RANGE BY 15-16Z AND SCT OUT AFTER THAT.
WITH WINDS STAY UP THROUGH THE PERIOD NOT EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTIONS
TO VSBYS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  30  57  35 /  20   5   0   0
ATLANTA         50  31  55  37 /  10   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     43  26  51  31 /  60  10   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    49  28  54  32 /  20   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        55  33  60  38 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     49  31  55  36 /  20   5   0   0
MACON           56  32  59  34 /   5   0   0   0
ROME            50  29  55  32 /  20   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  52  28  56  33 /  10   0   0   0
VIDALIA         56  37  59  38 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...
GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...
JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...
MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...
FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...
GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...
TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TOWNS...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...
UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...
TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...
DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...
HENRY...JACKSON...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MERIWETHER...
MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...PAULDING...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
TALBOT...TOWNS...TROUP...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...
WHITE...WHITFIELD.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...
GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01





  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCHS 010552
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
152 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WHAT A POTENT SYSTEM SO FAR...AND IT WILL ONLY GET STRONGER
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS PIVOTED NORTH OF
THE SANTEE RIVER AND THERE WILL BE A BREAK UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVE IN ALONG THE NW TIER OF SC ONCE THE
DEEP LAYERED LOW ALOFT HEADS OUR WAY.

MEANWHILE...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MOST OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...BEFORE
SLOWING AS IT NEARS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE PEE DEE. COLD AIR IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND AS IT STARTS TO SURGE IN IT WILL BREAK THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
AND WITH PACKING OF THE GRADIENT IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL
GUSTY WEST/NW WINDS...AS HIGH AS 15-25 MPH ACROSS SE GA AND 10-20
MPH IN SC.

TEMPS AT MIDNIGHT WILL BE LIKELY BE GREATER THAN WHAT TEMPS WILL
BE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND BY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED
INFLUX OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WE/LL SEE LOWS DOWN NEAR 40 FROM
HAMPTON AND ALLENDALE TO TATTNALL...LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S MOST
ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR A FEW UPPER 40S OVER COASTAL CHARLESTON.
THIS WILL BE SOME 6-10 DEGREES BELOW TYPICAL NOVEMBER 1 LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE IN THE OFFING FOR THE AREA AS AN
INCREDIBLY COLD AND POWERFUL SYSTEM FOR EARLY FALL AFFECTS THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A POTENT
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT
AND BRIEFLY CUTTING OFF ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY AS A
STRONG 115 KT JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN QUICKLY SOUTH VIA STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTED NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL QUICKLY
ENCOMPASS THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...BRING EXTREMELY
CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS OVERHEAD...500 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP IN THE -22 TO -26C RANGE WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO -2 TO -5C. IT SHOULD BE NOTED 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF
THIS MAGNITUDE FOR EARLY NOVEMBER ARE ABOUT 12 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL--CERTAINLY A TESTAMENT TO HOW COLD THIS AIR MASS WILL BE.

TEMPERATURES: CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW/S COLD POCKET COUPLED WITH SUCH COLD LOW/MID-LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH
TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF SOME MODEL DATA SETS PROVE TO BE
CORRECT...SUCH AS THE NAM-12...AND/OR PRECIPITATION IS MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED...THE RESULTING DIABATIC COOLING COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH WHERE LOWER 50S
COULD BE REALIZED. ITS CERTAINLY A TOUGH CALL ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH THE EVENTUAL DIURNAL THERMAL CURVES BEING DRIVEN BY THE
AREA/INTENSITY OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS. IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST HOLDS...THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 56 /1993/ AT
THE CHARLESTON AIRPORT COULD FALL. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AREAS TO THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 ELSEWHERE.
THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS A BIT TOO DRY AND THE WIND TOO HIGH TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...ROUGHLY FROM MILLEN SOUTH TO TATTNALL AND POINTS WEST. A
FROST ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

PRECIPITATION: MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN DEPICTING VARIOUS AMOUNT OF QPF
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS UVV
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REGIONS...ONLY GIVING SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA A
QUICK...GLANCING BLOW. WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20-40 PERCENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-26...BUT ANY SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD DEVIATION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL NECESSITATE A HIGHER POP
REGIME. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH DIABATIC COOLING TO SUPPORT SOME
GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL AT TIMES...MAINLY IN POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
WHERE DIABATIC PROCESSES WILL BE MAXIMIZED. COULD ALSO HEAR A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH GIVEN THE INCREDIBLE LOW
LAPSE RATES...BUT THE RISK IS JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION JUST YET.

WINDS...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
SOUTH OF I-16 WHERE MIXING WILL BE MAXIMIZED DUE TO CONSIDERABLY
LESS CLOUD COVER. EXPECT WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH
IN THIS AREA...SO A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TATTNALL-EVANS-
BRYAN-CHATHAM-LIBERTY-LONG AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES...FROM 9AM-8PM
SATURDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT THE PRESENCE OF
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LOWERS CONFIDENCE ENOUGH TO NOT ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PLAN TO LIMIT
WINDS THERE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 MPH...OR JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION WANES AND THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. HIGHS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE DOWN RIGHT COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S TO THE MID-UPPER 30S AT THE COAST WITH
LOWER-MID 40S AT THE BEACHES. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD FROST LIKELY ROUGHLY NORTH
OF A HUGER-SUMMERVILLE-HENDERSONVILLE-CLYO-METTER LINE...BUT AWAY
FROM THE SHORES OF LAKE MOULTRIE. A FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS. LOWS AROUND FREEZING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF JENKINS-SCREVEN-ALLENDALE AS WELL AS NORTHERN PARTS OF
BERKELEY COUNTY...BUT EXPECT ANY FREEZE DURATIONS TO REMAIN 1-2
HOURS AT BEST. A FREEZE WATCH AND EVENTUALLY A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
IN LATER FORECAST CYCLES.

MONDAY...WARMER CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND WITH MID-UPPER 40S AT THE COAST. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL MAKE FOR
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LIKELY AROUND 35 KT AT TIMES...POSSIBLY
CLOSE TO 40 KT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH LATER IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT MEANS LITTLE TO NO
RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK AND AS
COLDER AIR STARTS TO RUSH IN AND DEEPER MIXING OCCURS...W/NW WINDS
WILL BECOME STRONGER AND PROGRESSIVELY MORE GUSTY THROUGH THE
MORNING. WIND GUSTS WILL PEAK AROUND 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA TO OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...AND HAVE PREVAILING SHRA IN THE FORECAST FROM 16-23Z.
SOME GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE MENTION IN THE TAF/S. WHILE SOME FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE PRECIPITATION IN
THE AFTERNOON...HAVE KEPT VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING IN THE TAF/S.

KSAV...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AND AS
COLDER AIR STARTS TO RUSH IN AND DEEPER MIXING OCCURS...W/NW WINDS
WILL BECOME STRONGER AND PROGRESSIVELY MORE GUSTY THROUGH THE
MORNING. WIND GUSTS WILL PEAK AROUND 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHRA LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE TERMINAL
SATURDAY...UNLESS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN NOW
ANTICIPATED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO IMPACTS EXPECTED SUN-WED.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...MARINERS CAN ANTICIPATE A RAMPING UP OF WINDS AND
SEAS AS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOCAL WATERS. COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN ERNEST IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT THAT ALONG WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO
THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO FORM NEAR THE
SC/NC LINE WILL CAUSE A SHARP RISE IN WINDS. WE/LL BE CLOSE TO
GALES BY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AMZ354-374...THUS HAVE INITIALIZED
WITH THE GALE WARNING ON THESE WATERS. CONDITIONS ON THE SC
WATERS SHOULD HOLD NEAR OR JUST BELOW ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA UNTIL
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WHEN WE HAVE GALES STARTING ON
AMZ330-350-352. SEAS WILL BE RESTRICTED SOME BY THE OFFSHORE FETCH
BUT WILL STILL BUILD FROM AROUND 2-4 FT EARLY UPWARDS TO 4-7 FT BY
LATE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS.

SATURDAY...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL WATERS
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOLID GALES INCREASING. GALE
WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES...INCLUDING THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. EXPECT WINDS OF 30-35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 35-40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT OFFSHORE WATERS.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 4-7 FT NEARSHORE...8-13 FT OFFSHORE. 1000 HPA
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 50-60 KT...SO ITS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE A FEW GUSTS TO STORM FORCE />=48 KT/ COULD OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WARMER OFFSHORE WATERS. ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY
ATTM...A STORM WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR SOME
LEGS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO
DO SO BEYOND 20 NM. NO ISSUES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED ALTHOUGH
SEAS WILL BE BUILDING BACK UP LATER IN THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT EAST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

BLOWOUT TIDES...STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PUSH TIDES INTO
THE -1 TO 0 FT MLLW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ATTM IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS
THROUGH LEVELS WILL REACH LEVELS WHERE NAVIGATION PROBLEMS
OCCUR...BUT THIS WILL WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR 40-45 MPH...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS IS WHERE FUEL MOISTURES APPEAR TO BE LOWEST
GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
/25 PERCENT/...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE AIR MASS IS A BIT WARMER
AND/OR DRIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. CONDITIONS COULD BE A BIT
DRIER SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. IN ANY
EVENT...LAND MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND. HEADLINES FOR CRITICAL WINDS AND NEAR
CRITICAL RH WILL BE ADDED TO THE FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT NOV 1...
KCHS 56 /1993/...
KSAV 52 /1925/...
KCXM 52 /1925/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ114>119-137>141.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING TO 11 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ330-350-352.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ354-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 010544
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
142 AM EDT SAT NOV  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ALONG WITH THE FIRST
FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED ON AREA LAKES OVERNIGHT..ESPECIALLY CLARKS HILL. LAKE
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT AT 4AM.

AS OF 02Z...REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF SOME
SMALL HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING
DUE TO THE RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND WEAK INSTABILITY.
STORMS WILL TAPER OFF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE DIGGING TOWARD THE
CSRA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE
REGIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS
LOCATED. WINDS HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY
MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS WITH A GRADUAL TAPER IN POPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS
WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A FEW REPORTS OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION MIXED IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN
EARLY SATURDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE FAR
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA DURING THE 10Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME. BELIEVE
THIS AREA MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MIX DUE TO THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW IN THIS AREA AND THE BETTER
MOISTURE. 850 TEMPS ARE EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE AT -5 TO -6 IN PARTS
OF THE CSRA. THE 18Z NAM HAS MOISTURE AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE MARGINAL. ALSO
CAN NOT RULE OUT SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...WHICH COULD ALSO BRING SOME GRAUPEL TO THE AREA. NO
ACCUMS...AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. EXPECT RAIN TO BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE EVENT.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER...NEARLY
15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH 50 DEGREES IN THE MIDLANDS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...THE
POSSIBLY THE LOWER 50S IN THE CSRA. THE OTHER FORECAST ISSUE TO
DEAL WITH DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING SURFACE
GRADIENT AND THE STRONG 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE SATURDAY
EVENING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN RATHER BREEZY
ACROSS THE LAKES FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT LAKE WIND ADVISORY WHICH RUNS FROM 10 AM
EDT SATURDAY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY
EVENING.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
PREVENT IDEAL STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING BY
KEEPING MUCH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED. THIS MEANS THAT
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE DETERMINED
BY THE COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE INSTEAD OF BY RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THIS PUTS LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. THE BEST NIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEARS TO BE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH UNDER LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR...AND AIRMASS WILL BE DRY. THIS
CREATES IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH UPPER 20S REMAINING POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. SOME OF THE NUMBERS FOR BUSH FIELD
STILL TRY TO TAKE THE TEMPERATURE DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER
20S...WHICH IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND SEASONABLY COLD FOR EARLY
NOVEMBER.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AT A MINIMUM WILL LIKELY NEED A FROST
ADVISORY...BUT IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE DOWNWARD TREND...AND IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...A FREEZE WARNING
MAN BE NEEDED INSTEAD FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THESE WOULD BE
ISSUED WITH LATER PACKAGES IF NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COOL AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST
INTO WEDNESDAY. MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WELL
BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF FREEZING/BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT
STILL REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AROUND
THE SURFACE HIGH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MUCH WARMER
MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AND LESS CONFIDENT BY
MID WEEK...DUE TO TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WED NGT/THU WITH APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING WAS EAST OF THE TAF
SITES. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM CAE/CUB ON NORTH...THOUGH EXPECT
PRECIP TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH AFTER 09Z AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER TN MOVES INTO THE AREA. GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT COULD SEE A FEW
FLAKES OF SNOW MIX WITH RAIN AT CAE/CUB DURING THE MORNING.

MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE MIDLANDS TODAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNRISE...BECOMING 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT
OF THE AREA WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 21Z. STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 010257 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1057 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH NOT UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA WE ARE ALREADY GETTING WINDS TO
AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA PERIODICALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADVANCED THE ONSET OF THE
WIND ADVISORY TO 11PM NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO
COVINGTON AND ATHENS. ALREADY GETTING REPORTS OF RAIN/SNOW MIX OR
EVEN A COMPLETE CHANGE-OVER IN THE FAR NORTH. NOTHING OVER TRACE
ACCUMULATIONS YET BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING TO FREEZING UP
THERE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NO CHANGES TO THE ANTICIPATED
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

UPDATE...
INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISH. WINDS ARE BEGINNING
TO INCREASE AS WELL AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS REACHED BEFORE SUN UP.
CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS REMAIN ON TRACK SO NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE FAR NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD TOWARD THE STATE FROM THE MID-OHIO VALLEY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVER-NIGHT HOURS.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH GEORGIA. ALL THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH DIVING A STRONG
UPPER LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. ALREADY SEE LIGHT RETURNS ON
RADAR ACROSS THE CWA WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER WITH THE DRY AIR
MOST OF THE PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. MAIN FOCUS OF THE
SHORT TERM IS THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT
WILL AFFECT NORTH GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO NORTH GEORGIA GENERALLY IN
THE MIDNIGHT TO MID MORNING TIME FRAME. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AT BRASSTOWN BALD BY 06Z WITH
THE COLUMN SATURATED BELOW ABOUT 800MB. WITH A CONDUCIVE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...EXPECT SOME OF THE SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS IN THE NORTH GEORGIA
MOUNTAINS WITH AROUND TWO INCHES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS
LINES UP WELL WITH THE SPREAD OF GUIDANCE. GIVEN THIS SETUP AND
FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATION...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH MID SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS THAT MAY SEE A FLURRY
TO A DUSTING HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN AN SPS.

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO
MAKE IT. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM SO HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEING
FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE METRO AREA.
EVEN THOUGH PARTS OF THE NORTHERN METRO AREA COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AROUND THE 12Z TIME PERIOD...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION.

WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP TONIGHT ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND BY
SATURDAY SOME AREAS MAY EVEN SEE WINDS GUSTS TO 40MPH. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CWA FOR SATURDAY. THE
STRONG WINDS ON SATURDAY COMBINED WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY ALLOW FOR THE WIND CHILL VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO REACH
THE 30S IN THE NORTHEAST...40S ACROSS THE METRO AREA AND 50S
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. END RESULT...ITS GOING TO FEEL VERY COLD
TOMORROW AND IF YOURE SPENDING ANY TIME OUTSIDE DRESS
APPROPRIATELY.

COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH BOTH
HIGH AND LOW TEMPS BEING WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE ABOUT TWENTY DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR THE MOST
PART...NOT EXPECTING TO BREAK ANY RECORDS FOR LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. CSG IS THE ONLY EXCEPTION WITH THE FORECAST BEING
WITHIN ONE DEGREE OF THE RECORD. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACROSS FAR NORTH
GEORGIA...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN TO FREEZING TONIGHT AND THUS
HAVE CONTINUED THE FREEZE WARNING. EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
FORECAST TO REACH FREEZING OR BELOW AND THUS A FREEZE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

11/RW

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE WEATHER EXCITEMENT OF THE SHORT TERM...THE LONG TERM
SEEMS A LITTLE BENIGN. EXTENDED BEGINS WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE AS HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVETRAIN PUSHES EAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT
ANOTHER COOL DAY SUNDAY /THOUGH NOT QUITE AS COLD AS SATURDAY/ AND
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING AGAIN WITH CALM WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
LIKELY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZE/FROST PRODUCTS SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT WILL DEAL WITH THAT TOMORROW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVER THE
AREA...AND REALLY FAIRLY PLEASANT BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH
PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE TO THE AREA AS WELL AS THE FRONT ELONGATES AND STRETCHES
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
TO POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES BUILDING IN ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE MOISTURE WASHES OUT. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO MAKE
ANY CHANGES BEYOND THAT AS WELL. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

TDP

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 508 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AND SATURDAY NIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 20S IN
THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK
WITH SOME TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD BE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF THIS NEXT FRONT...HOWEVER LOW POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

41

FIRE WEATHER...
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUEL MOISTURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SINCE WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY MEET FIRE DANGER CRITERIA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN TOO HIGH SO NO CHANCE OF A RED
FLAG WARNING BUT IF FUEL MOISTURES DROP TONIGHT...MAY HAVE TO
ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR SATURDAY. WINDS DROP ENOUGH
SUNDAY THAT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALSO DIMINISH.

TDP

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...PERSISTING THROUGH 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST BY 16-20Z. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS...ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AFTER 06Z.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH BY 20-00Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS 7-12KT WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT REACHING 12-16KT
W/ GUSTS 20-25KT BY 06-10Z AND 18-20KT W/ GUSTS 25-35KT BY 12Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          36  51  30  57 /  20  20   5   0
ATLANTA         34  50  31  55 /  20  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     32  43  26  51 /  50  60  10   0
CARTERSVILLE    33  49  28  54 /  30  20   0   0
COLUMBUS        37  55  33  60 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     36  49  31  55 /  20  20   5   0
MACON           36  56  32  59 /  10   5   0   0
ROME            33  50  29  55 /  30  20   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  34  52  28  56 /  20  10   0   0
VIDALIA         41  56  37  59 /  10   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...OGLETHORPE...
PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...
FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...
GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...
TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TOWNS...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...
UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...
PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...
DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...
HENRY...JACKSON...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MERIWETHER...
MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...PAULDING...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
TALBOT...TOWNS...TROUP...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...
WHITE...WHITFIELD.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...
GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...20






000
FXUS62 KCAE 010249
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1049 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ALONG WITH THE FIRST
FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED ON AREA LAKES OVERNIGHT..ESPECIALLY CLARKS HILL. LAKE
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT AT 4AM...

AS OF 02Z...REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF SOME
SMALL HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING
DUE TO THE RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND WEAK INSTABILITY.
STORMS WILL TAPER OFF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE DIGGING TOWARD THE
CSRA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE
REGIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS
LOCATED. WINDS HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY
MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS WITH A GRADUAL TAPER IN POPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS
WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A FEW REPORTS OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION MIXED IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN
EARLY SATURDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE FAR
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA DURING THE 10Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME. BELIEVE
THIS AREA MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MIX DUE TO THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW IN THIS AREA AND THE BETTER
MOISTURE. 850 TEMPS ARE EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE AT -5 TO -6 IN PARTS
OF THE CSRA. THE 18Z NAM HAS MOISTURE AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE MARGINAL. ALSO
CAN NOT RULE OUT SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...WHICH COULD ALSO BRING SOME GRAUPEL TO THE AREA. NO
ACCUMS...AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. EXPECT RAIN TO BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE EVENT.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER...NEARLY
15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH 50 DEGREES IN THE MIDLANDS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...THE
POSSIBLY THE LOWER 50S IN THE CSRA. THE OTHER FORECAST ISSUE TO
DEAL WITH DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING SURFACE
GRADIENT AND THE STRONG 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE SATURDAY
EVENING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN RATHER BREEZY
ACROSS THE LAKES FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT LAKE WIND ADVISORY WHICH RUNS FROM 10 AM
EDT SATURDAY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY
EVENING.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
PREVENT IDEAL STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING BY
KEEPING MUCH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED. THIS MEANS THAT
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE DETERMINED
BY THE COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE INSTEAD OF BY RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THIS PUTS LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. THE BEST NIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEARS TO BE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH UNDER LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR...AND AIRMASS WILL BE DRY. THIS
CREATES IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH UPPER 20S REMAINING POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. SOME OF THE NUMBERS FOR BUSH FIELD
STILL TRY TO TAKE THE TEMPERATURE DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER
20S...WHICH IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND SEASONABLY COLD FOR EARLY
NOVEMBER.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AT A MINIMUM WILL LIKELY NEED A FROST
ADVISORY...BUT IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE DOWNWARD TREND...AND IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...A FREEZE WARNING
MAN BE NEEDED INSTEAD FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THESE WOULD BE
ISSUED WITH LATER PACKAGES IF NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COOL AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST
INTO WEDNESDAY. MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WELL
BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF FREEZING/BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT
STILL REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AROUND
THE SURFACE HIGH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MUCH WARMER
MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AND LESS CONFIDENT BY
MID WEEK...DUE TO TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WED NGT/THU WITH APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
ORANGEBURG FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN AS THE FRONT PASSES BRINGING LOWERED CEILINGS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AFTER 09Z. ON SATURDAY... THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE PEE DEE AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED TO ADD -SHRA AFTER 15Z FOR THE COLUMBIA
AIRPORTS.

NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL INHIBIT FOG AND FROST FORMATION FOR SUNDAY MORNING. DRY AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR FROST MONDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP NEAR
FREEZING WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 010243
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1043 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ALONG WITH THE FIRST
FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 02Z...REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF SOME
SMALL HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING
DUE TO THE RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND WEAK INSTABILITY.
STORMS WILL TAPER OFF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE DIGGING TOWARD THE
CSRA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE
REGIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS
LOCATED. WINDS HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY
MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS WITH A GRADUAL TAPER IN POPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS
WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A FEW REPORTS OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION MIXED IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN
EARLY SATURDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE FAR
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA DURING THE 10Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME. BELIEVE
THIS AREA MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MIX DUE TO THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW IN THIS AREA AND THE BETTER
MOISTURE. 850 TEMPS ARE EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE AT -5 TO -6 IN PARTS
OF THE CSRA. THE 18Z NAM HAS MOISTURE AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE MARGINAL. ALSO
CAN NOT RULE OUT SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...WHICH COULD ALSO BRING SOME GRAUPLE TO THE AREA. NO
ACCUMS...AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. EXPECT RAIN TO BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE EVENT.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER...NEARLY
15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH 50 DEGREES IN THE MIDLANDS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...THE
POSSIBLY THE LOWER 50S IN THE CSRA. THE OTHER FORECAST ISSUE TO
DEAL WITH DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING SURFACE
GRADIENT AND THE STRONG 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE SATURDAY
EVENING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN RATHER BREEZY
ACROSS THE LAKES FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT LAKE WIND ADVISORY WHICH RUNS FROM 10 AM
EDT SATURDAY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY
EVENING.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
PREVENT IDEAL STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING BY
KEEPING MUCH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED. THIS MEANS THAT
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE DETERMINED
BY THE COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE INSTEAD OF BY RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THIS PUTS LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. THE BEST NIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEARS TO BE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH UNDER LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR...AND AIRMASS WILL BE DRY. THIS
CREATES IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH UPPER 20S REMAINING POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. SOME OF THE NUMBERS FOR BUSH FIELD
STILL TRY TO TAKE THE TEMPERATURE DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER
20S...WHICH IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND SEASONABLY COLD FOR EARLY
NOVEMBER.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AT A MINIMUM WILL LIKELY NEED A FROST
ADVISORY...BUT IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE DOWNWARD TREND...AND IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...A FREEZE WARNING
MAN BE NEEDED INSTEAD FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THESE WOULD BE
ISSUED WITH LATER PACKAGES IF NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COOL AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST
INTO WEDNESDAY. MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WELL
BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF FREEZING/BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT
STILL REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AROUND
THE SURFACE HIGH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MUCH WARMER
MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AND LESS CONFIDENT BY
MID WEEK...DUE TO TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WED NGT/THU WITH APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
ORANGEBURG FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN AS THE FRONT PASSES BRINGING LOWERED CEILINGS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AFTER 09Z. ON SATURDAY... THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE PEE DEE AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED TO ADD -SHRA AFTER 15Z FOR THE COLUMBIA
AIRPORTS.

NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL INHIBIT FOG AND FROST FORMATION FOR SUNDAY MORNING. DRY AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR FROST MONDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP NEAR
FREEZING WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 010228
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1028 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WHAT A POTENT SYSTEM SO FAR...AND IT WILL ONLY GET STRONGER
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. WE HAVE ACTUALLY SEEN A INDICATIONS OF
SMALL HAIL AS PER DUAL POL HYDROMETEORS AND AN EARLIER REPORT FROM
AIKEN COUNTY OF PEA-SIZED HAIL...WITH A 10 VIL! GIVEN DECENT LOW
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SLIGHT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND
ADEQUATE CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...WE FORESEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A T-STORM OR TWO IN THE CHARLESTON
QUAD-COUNTY AREA THROUGH TIL 12-1 AM IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE CLOSED LOW
DIGGING ACROSS THE OHIO/TENN VALLEYS. IF IT/S DOING THIS
NOW...IMAGINE WHAT MAY TRANSPIRE SATURDAY AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES DEVELOP.

AS THE CURRENT CONVECTION PIVOTS NORTH OF THE SANTEE RIVER BY
ABOUT 05Z THERE IS A BREAK UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVE IN ALONG THE NW TIER OF SC ONCE THE DEEP
LAYERED LOW ALOFT HEADS OUR WAY. MOST AREAS THOUGH WILL NOT GET
ANY RAINFALL ROUGHLY SOUTH AND SE OF A LINE FROM HAMPTON TO
BEAUFORT...AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT AFTER 1 AM WILL BE RAINFREE.

MEANWHILE...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS ENTERING OUR INTERIOR SE GA
ZONES EARLY AND WILL SWING QUICKLY OFF THE GA COASTAL ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN SC THE FRONT IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN TRAVELING THROUGH
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN OR NEAR THE PEE DEE REGION.
THIS WILL DELAY THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT UNTIL AROUND 1-3 AM
OVER BEAUFORT AND COLLETON COUNTIES...AND THROUGH THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY SECTIONS THEREAFTER. COLD AIR IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND
AS IT STARTS TO SURGE IN IT WILL BREAK THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND
WITH PACKING OF THE GRADIENT IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL GUSTY
WEST/NW WINDS...AS HIGH AS 15-25 MPH ACROSS SE GA AND 10-20 MPH IN
SC.

TEMPS AT MIDNIGHT WILL BE LIKELY BE GREATER THAN WHAT TEMPS WILL
BE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND BY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED
INFLUX OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WE/LL SEE LOWS DOWN NEAR 40 FROM
HAMPTON AND ALLENDALE TO TATTNALL...LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S MOST
ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR A FEW UPPER 40S OVER COASTAL CHARLESTON.
THIS WILL BE SOME 6-10 DEGREES BELOW TYPICAL NOVEMBER 1 LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE IN THE OFFING FOR THE AREA AS AN
INCREDIBLY COLD AND POWERFUL SYSTEM FOR EARLY FALL AFFECTS THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A POTENT
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT
AND BRIEFLY CUTTING OFF ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY AS A
STRONG 115 KT JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN QUICKLY SOUTH VIA STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTED NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL QUICKLY
ENCOMPASS THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...BRING EXTREMELY
CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS OVERHEAD...500 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP IN THE -22 TO -26C RANGE WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO -2 TO -5C. IT SHOULD BE NOTED 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF
THIS MAGNITUDE FOR EARLY NOVEMBER ARE ABOUT 12 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL--CERTAINLY A TESTAMENT TO HOW COLD THIS AIR MASS WILL BE.

TEMPERATURES: CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW/S COLD POCKET COUPLED WITH SUCH COLD LOW/MID-LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH
TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF SOME MODEL DATA SETS PROVE TO BE
CORRECT...SUCH AS THE NAM-12...AND/OR PRECIPITATION IS MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED...THE RESULTING DIABATIC COOLING COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH WHERE LOWER 50S
COULD BE REALIZED. ITS CERTAINLY A TOUGH CALL ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH THE EVENTUAL DIURNAL THERMAL CURVES BEING DRIVEN BY THE
AREA/INTENSITY OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS. IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST HOLDS...THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 56 /1993/ AT
THE CHARLESTON AIRPORT COULD FALL. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AREAS TO THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 ELSEWHERE.
THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS A BIT TOO DRY AND THE WIND TOO HIGH TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...ROUGHLY FROM MILLEN SOUTH TO TATTNALL AND POINTS WEST. A
FROST ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

PRECIPITATION: MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN DEPICTING VARIOUS AMOUNT OF QPF
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS UVV
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REGIONS...ONLY GIVING SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA A
QUICK...GLANCING BLOW. WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20-40 PERCENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-26...BUT ANY SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD DEVIATION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL NECESSITATE A HIGHER POP
REGIME. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH DIABATIC COOLING TO SUPPORT SOME
GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL AT TIMES...MAINLY IN POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
WHERE DIABATIC PROCESSES WILL BE MAXIMIZED. COULD ALSO HEAR A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH GIVEN THE INCREDIBLE LOW
LAPSE RATES...BUT THE RISK IS JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION JUST YET.

WINDS...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
SOUTH OF I-16 WHERE MIXING WILL BE MAXIMIZED DUE TO CONSIDERABLY
LESS CLOUD COVER. EXPECT WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH
IN THIS AREA...SO A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TATTNALL-EVANS-
BRYAN-CHATHAM-LIBERTY-LONG AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES...FROM 9AM-8PM
SATURDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT THE PRESENCE OF
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LOWERS CONFIDENCE ENOUGH TO NOT ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PLAN TO LIMIT
WINDS THERE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 MPH...OR JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION WANES AND THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. HIGHS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE DOWN RIGHT COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S TO THE MID-UPPER 30S AT THE COAST WITH
LOWER-MID 40S AT THE BEACHES. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD FROST LIKELY ROUGHLY NORTH
OF A HUGER-SUMMERVILLE-HENDERSONVILLE-CLYO-METTER LINE...BUT AWAY
FROM THE SHORES OF LAKE MOULTRIE. A FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS. LOWS AROUND FREEZING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF JENKINS-SCREVEN-ALLENDALE AS WELL AS NORTHERN PARTS OF
BERKELEY COUNTY...BUT EXPECT ANY FREEZE DURATIONS TO REMAIN 1-2
HOURS AT BEST. A FREEZE WATCH AND EVENTUALLY A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
IN LATER FORECAST CYCLES.

MONDAY...WARMER CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND WITH MID-UPPER 40S AT THE COAST. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL MAKE FOR
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LIKELY AROUND 35 KT AT TIMES...POSSIBLY
CLOSE TO 40 KT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH LATER IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT MEANS LITTLE TO NO
RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...A FEW UPSTREAM SHRA IN ADVANCE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL EARLY TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR TO
PREVAIL. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND AS COLDER
AIR STARTS TO RUSH IN AND MIXING HEIGHTS CLIMB WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONGER AND PROGRESSIVELY MORE GUSTY LATE TONIGHT AND MORE SO ON
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHRA TO OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. UNTIL TRENDS CAN BE BETTER ASCERTAINED WE HAVE KEPT
CONDITIONS AT VCSH AND LOW-END VFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS IS SMALL HAIL IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER
AND TALLER SHRA.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY
TONIGHT...BEFORE FROPA GENERATES LOWERING CEILINGS /BUT STILL VFR
WEATHER/ AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AFTER 06Z. WEST AND NW
WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGEST AND MOST GUSTY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH GOOD MIXING PROFILES AND A PACKED PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHRA LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE TERMINAL
SATURDAY...UNLESS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN NOW
ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW WE HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END VFR CEILINGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO IMPACTS EXPECTED SUN-WED.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...MARINERS CAN ANTICIPATE A RAMPING UP OF WINDS AND
SEAS AS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOCAL WATERS. COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN ERNEST IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT WHICH OCCURS STARTING AROUND 04-06Z ACROSS THE GA
WATERS...AND 06-09Z ACROSS THE SC WATERS. THAT ALONG WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND LOW
PRESSURE STARTING TO FORM NEAR THE SC/NC LINE WILL CAUSE A SHARP
RISE IN WINDS. WE/LL BE CLOSE TO GALES BY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
AMZ354-374...THUS A START TIME OF 4 AM FOR THE GALE WARNING ON
THESE WATERS. CONDITIONS ON THE SC WATERS SHOULD HOLD NEAR OR JUST
BELOW ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...WHEN WE HAVE GALES STARTING ON AMZ330-350-352. SEAS
WILL BE RESTRICTED SOME BY THE OFFSHORE FETCH BUT WILL STILL BUILD
FROM AROUND 2-4 FT EARLY UPWARDS TO 4-7 FT BY LATE...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT A FEW
T-STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SC ATLANTIC WATERS WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL TIL ABOUT 12-1 AM.

SATURDAY...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL WATERS
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOLID GALES INCREASING. GALE
WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES...INCLUDING THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. EXPECT WINDS OF 30-35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 35-40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT OFFSHORE WATERS.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 4-7 FT NEARSHORE...8-13 FT OFFSHORE. 1000 HPA
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 50-60 KT...SO ITS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE A FEW GUSTS TO STORM FORCE />=48 KT/ COULD OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WARMER OFFSHORE WATERS. ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY
ATTM...A STORM WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR SOME
LEGS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO
DO SO BEYOND 20 NM. NO ISSUES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED ALTHOUGH
SEAS WILL BE BUILDING BACK UP LATER IN THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT EAST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

BLOWOUT TIDES...STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PUSH TIDES INTO
THE -1 TO 0 FT MLLW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ATTM IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS
THROUGH LEVELS WILL REACH LEVELS WHERE NAVIGATION PROBLEMS
OCCUR...BUT THIS WILL WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR 40-45 MPH...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS IS WHERE FUEL MOISTURES APPEAR TO BE LOWEST
GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
/25 PERCENT/...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE AIR MASS IS A BIT WARMER
AND/OR DRIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. CONDITIONS COULD BE A BIT
DRIER SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. IN ANY
EVENT...LAND MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND. HEADLINES FOR CRITICAL WINDS AND NEAR
CRITICAL RH WILL BE ADDED TO THE FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT NOV 1...
KCHS 56 /1993/...
KSAV 52 /1925/...
KCXM 52 /1925/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ330-350-352.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ354-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 010227
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1027 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WHAT A POTENT SYSTEM SO FAR...AND IT WILL ONLY GET STRONGER
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. WE HAVE ACTUALLY SEEN A INDICATIONS OF
SMALL HAIL AS PER DUAL POL HYDROMETEORS AND AN EARLIER REPORT FROM
AIKEN COUNTY OF PEA-SIZED HAIL...WITH A 10 VIL! GIVEN DECENT LOW
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SLIGHT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND
ADEQUATE CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...WE FORESEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A T-STORM OR TWO IN THE CHARLESTON
QUAD-COUNTY AREA THROUGH TIL 12-1 AM IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE CLOSED LOW
DIGGING ACROSS THE OHIO/TENN VALLEYS. IF IT/S DOING THIS
NOW...IMAGINE WHAT MAY TRANSPIRE SATURDAY AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES DEVELOP.

AS THE CURRENT CONVECTION PIVOTS NORTH OF THE SANTEE RIVER BY
ABOUT 05Z THERE IS A BREAK UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVE IN ONCE THE DEEP LAYERED LOW ALOFT HEADS
OUR WAY. MOST AREAS THOUGH WILL NOT GET ANY RAINFALL ROUGHLY SOUTH
AND SE OF A LINE FROM HAMPTON TO BEAUFORT.

MEANWHILE...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS ENTERING OUR INTERIOR SE GA
ZONES EARLY AND WILL SWING QUICKLY OFF THE GA COASTAL ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN SC THE FRONT IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN TRAVELING THROUGH
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN OR NEAR THE PEE DEE REGION.
THIS WILL DELAY THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT UNTIL AROUND 1-3 AM
OVER BEAUFORT AND COLLETON COUNTIES...AND THROUGH THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY SECTIONS THEREAFTER. COLD AIR IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND
AS IT STARTS TO SURGE IN IT WILL BREAK THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND
WITH PACKING OF THE GRADIENT IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL GUSTY
WEST/NW WINDS...AS HIGH AS 15-25 MPH ACROSS SE GA AND 10-20 MPH IN
SC.

TEMPS AT MIDNIGHT WILL BE LIKELY BE GREATER THAN WHAT TEMPS WILL
BE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND BY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED
INFLUX OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WE/LL SEE LOWS DOWN NEAR 40 FROM
HAMPTON AND ALLENDALE TO TATTNALL...LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S MOST
ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR A FEW UPPER 40S OVER COASTAL CHARLESTON.
THIS WILL BE SOME 6-10 DEGREES BELOW TYPICAL NOVEMBER 1 LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE IN THE OFFING FOR THE AREA AS AN
INCREDIBLY COLD AND POWERFUL SYSTEM FOR EARLY FALL AFFECTS THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A POTENT
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT
AND BRIEFLY CUTTING OFF ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY AS A
STRONG 115 KT JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN QUICKLY SOUTH VIA STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTED NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL QUICKLY
ENCOMPASS THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...BRING EXTREMELY
CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS OVERHEAD...500 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP IN THE -22 TO -26C RANGE WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO -2 TO -5C. IT SHOULD BE NOTED 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF
THIS MAGNITUDE FOR EARLY NOVEMBER ARE ABOUT 12 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL--CERTAINLY A TESTAMENT TO HOW COLD THIS AIR MASS WILL BE.

TEMPERATURES: CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW/S COLD POCKET COUPLED WITH SUCH COLD LOW/MID-LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH
TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF SOME MODEL DATA SETS PROVE TO BE
CORRECT...SUCH AS THE NAM-12...AND/OR PRECIPITATION IS MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED...THE RESULTING DIABATIC COOLING COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH WHERE LOWER 50S
COULD BE REALIZED. ITS CERTAINLY A TOUGH CALL ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH THE EVENTUAL DIURNAL THERMAL CURVES BEING DRIVEN BY THE
AREA/INTENSITY OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS. IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST HOLDS...THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 56 /1993/ AT
THE CHARLESTON AIRPORT COULD FALL. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AREAS TO THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 ELSEWHERE.
THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS A BIT TOO DRY AND THE WIND TOO HIGH TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...ROUGHLY FROM MILLEN SOUTH TO TATTNALL AND POINTS WEST. A
FROST ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

PRECIPITATION: MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN DEPICTING VARIOUS AMOUNT OF QPF
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS UVV
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REGIONS...ONLY GIVING SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA A
QUICK...GLANCING BLOW. WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20-40 PERCENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-26...BUT ANY SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD DEVIATION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL NECESSITATE A HIGHER POP
REGIME. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH DIABATIC COOLING TO SUPPORT SOME
GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL AT TIMES...MAINLY IN POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
WHERE DIABATIC PROCESSES WILL BE MAXIMIZED. COULD ALSO HEAR A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH GIVEN THE INCREDIBLE LOW
LAPSE RATES...BUT THE RISK IS JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION JUST YET.

WINDS...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
SOUTH OF I-16 WHERE MIXING WILL BE MAXIMIZED DUE TO CONSIDERABLY
LESS CLOUD COVER. EXPECT WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH
IN THIS AREA...SO A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TATTNALL-EVANS-
BRYAN-CHATHAM-LIBERTY-LONG AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES...FROM 9AM-8PM
SATURDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT THE PRESENCE OF
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LOWERS CONFIDENCE ENOUGH TO NOT ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PLAN TO LIMIT
WINDS THERE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 MPH...OR JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION WANES AND THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. HIGHS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE DOWN RIGHT COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S TO THE MID-UPPER 30S AT THE COAST WITH
LOWER-MID 40S AT THE BEACHES. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD FROST LIKELY ROUGHLY NORTH
OF A HUGER-SUMMERVILLE-HENDERSONVILLE-CLYO-METTER LINE...BUT AWAY
FROM THE SHORES OF LAKE MOULTRIE. A FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS. LOWS AROUND FREEZING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF JENKINS-SCREVEN-ALLENDALE AS WELL AS NORTHERN PARTS OF
BERKELEY COUNTY...BUT EXPECT ANY FREEZE DURATIONS TO REMAIN 1-2
HOURS AT BEST. A FREEZE WATCH AND EVENTUALLY A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
IN LATER FORECAST CYCLES.

MONDAY...WARMER CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND WITH MID-UPPER 40S AT THE COAST. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL MAKE FOR
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LIKELY AROUND 35 KT AT TIMES...POSSIBLY
CLOSE TO 40 KT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH LATER IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT MEANS LITTLE TO NO
RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...A FEW UPSTREAM SHRA IN ADVANCE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL EARLY TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR TO
PREVAIL. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND AS COLDER
AIR STARTS TO RUSH IN AND MIXING HEIGHTS CLIMB WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONGER AND PROGRESSIVELY MORE GUSTY LATE TONIGHT AND MORE SO ON
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHRA TO OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. UNTIL TRENDS CAN BE BETTER ASCERTAINED WE HAVE KEPT
CONDITIONS AT VCSH AND LOW-END VFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS IS SMALL HAIL IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER
AND TALLER SHRA.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY
TONIGHT...BEFORE FROPA GENERATES LOWERING CEILINGS /BUT STILL VFR
WEATHER/ AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AFTER 06Z. WEST AND NW
WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGEST AND MOST GUSTY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH GOOD MIXING PROFILES AND A PACKED PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHRA LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE TERMINAL
SATURDAY...UNLESS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN NOW
ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW WE HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END VFR CEILINGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO IMPACTS EXPECTED SUN-WED.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...MARINERS CAN ANTICIPATE A RAMPING UP OF WINDS AND
SEAS AS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOCAL WATERS. COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN ERNEST IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT WHICH OCCURS STARTING AROUND 04-06Z ACROSS THE GA
WATERS...AND 06-09Z ACROSS THE SC WATERS. THAT ALONG WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND LOW
PRESSURE STARTING TO FORM NEAR THE SC/NC LINE WILL CAUSE A SHARP
RISE IN WINDS. WE/LL BE CLOSE TO GALES BY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
AMZ354-374...THUS A START TIME OF 4 AM FOR THE GALE WARNING ON
THESE WATERS. CONDITIONS ON THE SC WATERS SHOULD HOLD NEAR OR JUST
BELOW ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...WHEN WE HAVE GALES STARTING ON AMZ330-350-352. SEAS
WILL BE RESTRICTED SOME BY THE OFFSHORE FETCH BUT WILL STILL BUILD
FROM AROUND 2-4 FT EARLY UPWARDS TO 4-7 FT BY LATE...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT A FEW
T-STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SC ATLANTIC WATERS WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL TIL ABOUT 12-1 AM.

SATURDAY...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL WATERS
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOLID GALES INCREASING. GALE
WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES...INCLUDING THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. EXPECT WINDS OF 30-35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 35-40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT OFFSHORE WATERS.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 4-7 FT NEARSHORE...8-13 FT OFFSHORE. 1000 HPA
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 50-60 KT...SO ITS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE A FEW GUSTS TO STORM FORCE />=48 KT/ COULD OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WARMER OFFSHORE WATERS. ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY
ATTM...A STORM WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR SOME
LEGS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO
DO SO BEYOND 20 NM. NO ISSUES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED ALTHOUGH
SEAS WILL BE BUILDING BACK UP LATER IN THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT EAST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

BLOWOUT TIDES...STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PUSH TIDES INTO
THE -1 TO 0 FT MLLW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ATTM IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS
THROUGH LEVELS WILL REACH LEVELS WHERE NAVIGATION PROBLEMS
OCCUR...BUT THIS WILL WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR 40-45 MPH...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS IS WHERE FUEL MOISTURES APPEAR TO BE LOWEST
GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
/25 PERCENT/...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE AIR MASS IS A BIT WARMER
AND/OR DRIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. CONDITIONS COULD BE A BIT
DRIER SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. IN ANY
EVENT...LAND MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND. HEADLINES FOR CRITICAL WINDS AND NEAR
CRITICAL RH WILL BE ADDED TO THE FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT NOV 1...
KCHS 56 /1993/...
KSAV 52 /1925/...
KCXM 52 /1925/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ330-350-352.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ354-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 010224
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1024 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ALONG WITH THE FIRST
FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 02Z...REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF SOME
SMALL HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING
DUE TO THE RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND WEAK INSTABILITY.
STORMS WILL TAPER OFF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE DIGGING TOWARD THE
CSRA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE
REGIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS
LOCATED. WINDS HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY
MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS WITH A GRADUAL TAPER IN POPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS
WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A FEW REPORTS OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION MIXED IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN
EARLY SATURDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE FAR
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA DURING THE 10Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME. BELIEVE
THIS AREA MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MIX DUE TO THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW IN THIS AREA AND THE BETTER
MOISTURE. 850 TEMPS ARE EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE AT -5 TO -6 IN PARTS
OF THE CSRA. THE 18Z NAM HAS MOISTURE AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE MARGINAL. ALSO
CAN NOT RULE OUT SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...WHICH COULD ALSO BRING SOME GRAUPLE TO THE AREA. NO
ACCUMS...AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. EXPECT RAIN TO BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE EVENT.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER...NEARLY
15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH 50 DEGREES IN THE MIDLANDS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...THE
POSSIBLY THE LOWER 50S IN THE CSRA. THE OTHER FORECAST ISSUE TO
DEAL WITH DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING SURFACE
GRADIENT AND THE STRONG 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE SATURDAY
EVENING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN RATHER BREEZY
ACROSS THE LAKES FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT LAKE WIND ADVISORY WHICH RUNS FROM 10 AM
EDT SATURDAY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY
EVENING.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
PREVENT IDEAL STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING BY
KEEPING MUCH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED. THIS MEANS THAT
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE DETERMINED
BY THE COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE INSTEAD OF BY RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THIS PUTS LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. THE BEST NIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEARS TO BE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH UNDER LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR...AND AIRMASS WILL BE DRY. THIS
CREATES IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH UPPER 20S REMAINING POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. SOME OF THE NUMBERS FOR BUSH FIELD
STILL TRY TO TAKE THE TEMPERATURE DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER
20S...WHICH IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND SEASONABLY COLD FOR EARLY
NOVEMBER.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AT A MINIMUM WILL LIKELY NEED A FROST
ADVISORY...BUT IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE DOWNWARD TREND...AND IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...A FREEZE WARNING
MAN BE NEEDED INSTEAD FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THESE WOULD BE
ISSUED WITH LATER PACKAGES IF NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COOL AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST
INTO WEDNESDAY. MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WELL
BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF FREEZING/BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT
STILL REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AROUND
THE SURFACE HIGH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MUCH WARMER
MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AND LESS CONFIDENT BY
MID WEEK...DUE TO TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WED NGT/THU WITH APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
ORANGEBURG FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN AS THE FRONT PASSES BRINGING LOWERED CEILINGS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AFTER 09Z. ON SATURDAY... THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE PEE DEE AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED TO ADD -SHRA AFTER 15Z FOR THE COLUMBIA
AIRPORTS.

NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL INHIBIT FOG AND FROST FORMATION FOR SUNDAY MORNING. DRY AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR FROST MONDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP NEAR
FREEZING WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 010136 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
936 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISH. WINDS ARE BEGINNING
TO INCREASE AS WELL AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS REACHED BEFORE SUN UP.
CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS REMAIN ON TRACK SO NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE FAR NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD TOWARD THE STATE FROM THE MID-OHIO VALLEY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVER-NIGHT HOURS.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH GEORGIA. ALL THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH DIVING A STRONG
UPPER LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. ALREADY SEE LIGHT RETURNS ON
RADAR ACROSS THE CWA WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER WITH THE DRY AIR
MOST OF THE PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. MAIN FOCUS OF THE
SHORT TERM IS THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT
WILL AFFECT NORTH GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO NORTH GEORGIA GENERALLY IN
THE MIDNIGHT TO MID MORNING TIME FRAME. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AT BRASSTOWN BALD BY 06Z WITH
THE COLUMN SATURATED BELOW ABOUT 800MB. WITH A CONDUCIVE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...EXPECT SOME OF THE SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS IN THE NORTH GEORGIA
MOUNTAINS WITH AROUND TWO INCHES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS
LINES UP WELL WITH THE SPREAD OF GUIDANCE. GIVEN THIS SETUP AND
FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATION...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH MID SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS THAT MAY SEE A FLURRY
TO A DUSTING HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN AN SPS.

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO
MAKE IT. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM SO HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEING
FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE METRO AREA.
EVEN THOUGH PARTS OF THE NORTHERN METRO AREA COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AROUND THE 12Z TIME PERIOD...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION.

WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP TONIGHT ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND BY
SATURDAY SOME AREAS MAY EVEN SEE WINDS GUSTS TO 40MPH. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CWA FOR SATURDAY. THE
STRONG WINDS ON SATURDAY COMBINED WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY ALLOW FOR THE WIND CHILL VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO REACH
THE 30S IN THE NORTHEAST...40S ACROSS THE METRO AREA AND 50S
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. END RESULT...ITS GOING TO FEEL VERY COLD
TOMORROW AND IF YOURE SPENDING ANY TIME OUTSIDE DRESS
APPROPRIATELY.

COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH BOTH
HIGH AND LOW TEMPS BEING WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE ABOUT TWENTY DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR THE MOST
PART...NOT EXPECTING TO BREAK ANY RECORDS FOR LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. CSG IS THE ONLY EXCEPTION WITH THE FORECAST BEING
WITHIN ONE DEGREE OF THE RECORD. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACROSS FAR NORTH
GEORGIA...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN TO FREEZING TONIGHT AND THUS
HAVE CONTINUED THE FREEZE WARNING. EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
FORECAST TO REACH FREEZING OR BELOW AND THUS A FREEZE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

11/RW

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE WEATHER EXCITEMENT OF THE SHORT TERM...THE LONG TERM
SEEMS A LITTLE BENIGN. EXTENDED BEGINS WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE AS HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVETRAIN PUSHES EAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT
ANOTHER COOL DAY SUNDAY /THOUGH NOT QUITE AS COLD AS SATURDAY/ AND
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING AGAIN WITH CALM WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
LIKELY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZE/FROST PRODUCTS SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT WILL DEAL WITH THAT TOMORROW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVER THE
AREA...AND REALLY FAIRLY PLEASANT BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH
PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE TO THE AREA AS WELL AS THE FRONT ELONGATES AND STRETCHES
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
TO POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES BUILDING IN ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE MOISTURE WASHES OUT. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO MAKE
ANY CHANGES BEYOND THAT AS WELL. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

TDP

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 508 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AND SATURDAY NIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 20S IN
THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK
WITH SOME TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD BE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF THIS NEXT FRONT...HOWEVER LOW POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

41

FIRE WEATHER...
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUEL MOISTURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SINCE WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY MEET FIRE DANGER CRITERIA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN TOO HIGH SO NO CHANCE OF A RED
FLAG WARNING BUT IF FUEL MOISTURES DROP TONIGHT...MAY HAVE TO
ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR SATURDAY. WINDS DROP ENOUGH
SUNDAY THAT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALSO DIMINISH.

TDP

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...PERSISTING THROUGH 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST BY 16-20Z. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS...ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AFTER 06Z.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH BY 20-00Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS 7-12KT WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT REACHING 12-16KT
W/ GUSTS 20-25KT BY 06-10Z AND 18-20KT W/ GUSTS 25-35KT BY 12Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          36  51  30  57 /  20  20   5   0
ATLANTA         34  50  31  55 /  20  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     32  43  26  51 /  50  60  10   0
CARTERSVILLE    33  49  28  54 /  30  20   0   0
COLUMBUS        37  55  33  60 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     36  49  31  55 /  20  20   5   0
MACON           36  56  32  59 /  10   5   0   0
ROME            33  50  29  55 /  30  20   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  34  52  28  56 /  20  10   0   0
VIDALIA         41  56  37  59 /  10   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...
FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...
GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...
TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TOWNS...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...
UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...
PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...
GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...20






000
FXUS62 KFFC 010136 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
936 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISH. WINDS ARE BEGINNING
TO INCREASE AS WELL AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS REACHED BEFORE SUN UP.
CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS REMAIN ON TRACK SO NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE FAR NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD TOWARD THE STATE FROM THE MID-OHIO VALLEY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVER-NIGHT HOURS.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH GEORGIA. ALL THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH DIVING A STRONG
UPPER LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. ALREADY SEE LIGHT RETURNS ON
RADAR ACROSS THE CWA WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER WITH THE DRY AIR
MOST OF THE PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. MAIN FOCUS OF THE
SHORT TERM IS THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT
WILL AFFECT NORTH GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO NORTH GEORGIA GENERALLY IN
THE MIDNIGHT TO MID MORNING TIME FRAME. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AT BRASSTOWN BALD BY 06Z WITH
THE COLUMN SATURATED BELOW ABOUT 800MB. WITH A CONDUCIVE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...EXPECT SOME OF THE SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS IN THE NORTH GEORGIA
MOUNTAINS WITH AROUND TWO INCHES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS
LINES UP WELL WITH THE SPREAD OF GUIDANCE. GIVEN THIS SETUP AND
FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATION...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH MID SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS THAT MAY SEE A FLURRY
TO A DUSTING HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN AN SPS.

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO
MAKE IT. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM SO HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEING
FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE METRO AREA.
EVEN THOUGH PARTS OF THE NORTHERN METRO AREA COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AROUND THE 12Z TIME PERIOD...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION.

WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP TONIGHT ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND BY
SATURDAY SOME AREAS MAY EVEN SEE WINDS GUSTS TO 40MPH. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CWA FOR SATURDAY. THE
STRONG WINDS ON SATURDAY COMBINED WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY ALLOW FOR THE WIND CHILL VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO REACH
THE 30S IN THE NORTHEAST...40S ACROSS THE METRO AREA AND 50S
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. END RESULT...ITS GOING TO FEEL VERY COLD
TOMORROW AND IF YOURE SPENDING ANY TIME OUTSIDE DRESS
APPROPRIATELY.

COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH BOTH
HIGH AND LOW TEMPS BEING WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE ABOUT TWENTY DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR THE MOST
PART...NOT EXPECTING TO BREAK ANY RECORDS FOR LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. CSG IS THE ONLY EXCEPTION WITH THE FORECAST BEING
WITHIN ONE DEGREE OF THE RECORD. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACROSS FAR NORTH
GEORGIA...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN TO FREEZING TONIGHT AND THUS
HAVE CONTINUED THE FREEZE WARNING. EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
FORECAST TO REACH FREEZING OR BELOW AND THUS A FREEZE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

11/RW

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE WEATHER EXCITEMENT OF THE SHORT TERM...THE LONG TERM
SEEMS A LITTLE BENIGN. EXTENDED BEGINS WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE AS HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVETRAIN PUSHES EAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT
ANOTHER COOL DAY SUNDAY /THOUGH NOT QUITE AS COLD AS SATURDAY/ AND
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING AGAIN WITH CALM WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
LIKELY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZE/FROST PRODUCTS SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT WILL DEAL WITH THAT TOMORROW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVER THE
AREA...AND REALLY FAIRLY PLEASANT BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH
PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE TO THE AREA AS WELL AS THE FRONT ELONGATES AND STRETCHES
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
TO POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES BUILDING IN ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE MOISTURE WASHES OUT. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO MAKE
ANY CHANGES BEYOND THAT AS WELL. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

TDP

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 508 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AND SATURDAY NIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 20S IN
THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK
WITH SOME TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD BE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF THIS NEXT FRONT...HOWEVER LOW POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

41

FIRE WEATHER...
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUEL MOISTURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SINCE WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY MEET FIRE DANGER CRITERIA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN TOO HIGH SO NO CHANCE OF A RED
FLAG WARNING BUT IF FUEL MOISTURES DROP TONIGHT...MAY HAVE TO
ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR SATURDAY. WINDS DROP ENOUGH
SUNDAY THAT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALSO DIMINISH.

TDP

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...PERSISTING THROUGH 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST BY 16-20Z. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS...ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AFTER 06Z.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH BY 20-00Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS 7-12KT WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT REACHING 12-16KT
W/ GUSTS 20-25KT BY 06-10Z AND 18-20KT W/ GUSTS 25-35KT BY 12Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          36  51  30  57 /  20  20   5   0
ATLANTA         34  50  31  55 /  20  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     32  43  26  51 /  50  60  10   0
CARTERSVILLE    33  49  28  54 /  30  20   0   0
COLUMBUS        37  55  33  60 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     36  49  31  55 /  20  20   5   0
MACON           36  56  32  59 /  10   5   0   0
ROME            33  50  29  55 /  30  20   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  34  52  28  56 /  20  10   0   0
VIDALIA         41  56  37  59 /  10   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...
FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...
GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...
TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TOWNS...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...
UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...
PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...
GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...20






000
FXUS62 KCAE 010011
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
811 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW ALONG
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ALONG WITH THE
FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWS LIGHT ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH HELPING TO CUTOFF THE LOW OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TN
AND NRN GA. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A
STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION...THE MODELS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MIDLANDS TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES NORTH.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WINDS INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AND
TOWARDS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN
BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE...THE MAIN COLD SURGE WILL NOT MOVE IN
UNTIL TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT LOWS RIGHT NOW FORECAST GENERALLY AROUND
40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY
MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS WITH A GRADUAL TAPER IN POPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE LOCAL TOP-DOWN PRECIP TOOL KEEPS THE CWA IN ALL RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND THUS WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION MIXED IN
WITH THE LIGHT RAIN EARLY/MIDDAY SATURDAY. ALSO CAN NOT RULE OUT
SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD ALSO
BRING SOME GRAUPLE TO THE AREA.  NO ACCUMS...AND CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH. EXPECT RAIN TO BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE
EVENT.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER...NEARLY
15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH 50 DEGREES IN THE MIDLANDS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...THE
POSSIBLY THE LOWER 50S IN THE CSRA. THE OTHER FORECAST ISSUE TO
DEAL WITH DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING SURFACE
GRADIENT AND THE STRONG 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE SATURDAY
EVENING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN RATHER BREEZY
ACROSS THE LAKES FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT LAKE WIND ADVISORY WHICH RUNS FROM 10 AM
EDT SATURDAY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY
EVENING.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
PREVENT IDEAL STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING BY
KEEPING MUCH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED. THIS MEANS THAT
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE DETERMINED
BY THE COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE INSTEAD OF BY RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THIS PUTS LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. THE BEST NIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEARS TO BE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH UNDER LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR...AND AIRMASS WILL BE DRY. THIS
CREATES IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH UPPER 20S REMAINING POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. SOME OF THE NUMBERS FOR BUSH FIELD
STILL TRY TO TAKE THE TEMPERATURE DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER
20S...WHICH IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND SEASONABLY COLD FOR EARLY
NOVEMBER.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AT A MINIMUM WILL LIKELY NEED A FROST
ADVISORY...BUT IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE DOWNWARD TREND...AND IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...A FREEZE WARNING
MAN BE NEEDED INSTEAD FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THESE WOULD BE
ISSUED WITH LATER PACKAGES IF NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COOL AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST
INTO WEDNESDAY. MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WELL
BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF FREEZING/BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT
STILL REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AROUND
THE SURFACE HIGH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MUCH WARMER
MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AND LESS CONFIDENT BY
MID WEEK...DUE TO TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WED NGT/THU WITH APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
ORANGEBURG FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN AS THE FRONT PASSES BRINGING LOWERED CEILINGS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AFTER 09Z. ON SATURDAY... THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE PEE DEE AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED TO ADD -SHRA AFTER 15Z FOR THE COLUMBIA
AIRPORTS.

NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL INHIBIT FOG AND FROST FORMATION FOR SUNDAY MORNING. DRY AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR FROST MONDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP NEAR
FREEZING WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 312342
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
742 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING...WE HAVE ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE CSRA AND INTO PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN
SC. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...VERY WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A POCKET OF SLIGHT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
/LIFTED INDICES 0 TO -2C AND SBCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG/. THERE IS ALSO
SOME EVIDENCE OF SMALL HAIL IN A COUPLE OF THESE SHOWERS GIVEN LOW
FREEZING LEVEL...LOW WET BULB ZERO AND THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL THEN CHANGE TONIGHT AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING AN IMPRESSIVE
DIGGING/AMPLIFYING TREND AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. AS THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS...A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA
BORDER...HELPING A POWERFUL COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA LATE...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
SURFACE WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ONSET OF
INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. IN GENERAL...WINDS
SHOULD GUST BETWEEN 15-20 MPH WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF DAYBREAK
SATURDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY COOL OFF POST
FROPA...INTO THE LOW/MID 40S. WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW TEMPS DIP
INTO THE UPPER 30S WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE IN THE OFFING FOR THE AREA AS AN
INCREDIBLY COLD AND POWERFUL SYSTEM FOR EARLY FALL AFFECTS THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A POTENT
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT
AND BRIEFLY CUTTING OFF ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY AS A
STRONG 115 KT JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN QUICKLY SOUTH VIA STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTED NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL QUICKLY
ENCOMPASS THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...BRING EXTREMELY
CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS OVERHEAD...500 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP IN THE -22 TO -26C RANGE WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO -2 TO -5C. IT SHOULD BE NOTED 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF
THIS MAGNITUDE FOR EARLY NOVEMBER ARE ABOUT 12 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL--CERTAINLY A TESTAMENT TO HOW COLD THIS AIR MASS WILL BE.

TEMPERATURES: CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW/S COLD POCKET COUPLED WITH SUCH COLD LOW/MID-LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH
TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF SOME MODEL DATA SETS PROVE TO BE
CORRECT...SUCH AS THE NAM-12...AND/OR PRECIPITATION IS MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED...THE RESULTING DIABATIC COOLING COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH WHERE LOWER 50S
COULD BE REALIZED. ITS CERTAINLY A TOUGH CALL ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH THE EVENTUAL DIURNAL THERMAL CURVES BEING DRIVEN BY THE
AREA/INTENSITY OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS. IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST HOLDS...THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 56 /1993/ AT
THE CHARLESTON AIRPORT COULD FALL. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AREAS TO THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 ELSEWHERE.
THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS A BIT TOO DRY AND THE WIND TOO HIGH TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...ROUGHLY FROM MILLEN SOUTH TO TATTNALL AND POINTS WEST. A
FROST ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

PRECIPITATION: MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN DEPICTING VARIOUS AMOUNT OF QPF
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS UVV
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REGIONS...ONLY GIVING SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA A
QUICK...GLANCING BLOW. WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20-40 PERCENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-26...BUT ANY SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD DEVIATION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL NECESSITATE A HIGHER POP
REGIME. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH DIABATIC COOLING TO SUPPORT SOME
GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL AT TIMES...MAINLY IN POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
WHERE DIABATIC PROCESSES WILL BE MAXIMIZED. COULD ALSO HEAR A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH GIVEN THE INCREDIBLE LOW
LAPSE RATES...BUT THE RISK IS JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION JUST YET.

WINDS...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
SOUTH OF I-16 WHERE MIXING WILL BE MAXIMIZED DUE TO CONSIDERABLY
LESS CLOUD COVER. EXPECT WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH
IN THIS AREA...SO A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TATTNALL-EVANS-
BRYAN-CHATHAM-LIBERTY-LONG AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES...FROM 9AM-8PM
SATURDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT THE PRESENCE OF
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LOWERS CONFIDENCE ENOUGH TO NOT ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PLAN TO LIMIT
WINDS THERE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 MPH...OR JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION WANES AND THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. HIGHS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE DOWN RIGHT COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S TO THE MID-UPPER 30S AT THE COAST WITH
LOWER-MID 40S AT THE BEACHES. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD FROST LIKELY ROUGHLY NORTH
OF A HUGER-SUMMERVILLE-HENDERSONVILLE-CLYO-METTER LINE...BUT AWAY
FROM THE SHORES OF LAKE MOULTRIE. A FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS. LOWS AROUND FREEZING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF JENKINS-SCREVEN-ALLENDALE AS WELL AS NORTHERN PARTS OF
BERKELEY COUNTY...BUT EXPECT ANY FREEZE DURATIONS TO REMAIN 1-2
HOURS AT BEST. A FREEZE WATCH AND EVENTUALLY A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
IN LATER FORECAST CYCLES.

MONDAY...WARMER CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND WITH MID-UPPER 40S AT THE COAST. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL MAKE FOR
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LIKELY AROUND 35 KT AT TIMES...POSSIBLY
CLOSE TO 40 KT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH LATER IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT MEANS LITTLE TO NO
RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...A FEW UPSTREAM SHRA IN ADVANCE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
TRY TO REACH THE TERMINAL EARLY TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR TO
PREVAIL. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND AS COLDER
AIR STARTS TO RUSH IN AND MIXING HEIGHTS CLIMB WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONGER AND PROGRESSIVELY MORE GUSTY LATE TONIGHT AND MORE SO ON
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHRA TO OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. UNTIL TRENDS CAN BE BETTER ASCERTAINED WE HAVE KEPT
CONDITIONS AT VCSH AND LOW-END VFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER...FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS IS SMALL HAIL IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER
AND TALLER SHRA.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY
TONIGHT...BEFORE FROPA GENERATES LOWERING CEILINGS /BUT STILL VFR
WEATHER/ AND INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AFTER 06Z. WEST AND NW
WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGEST AND MOST GUSTY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH GOOD MIXING PROFILES AND A PACKED PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHRA LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE TERMINAL
SATURDAY...UNLESS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN NOW
ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW WE HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END VFR CEILINGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO IMPACTS EXPECTED SUN-WED.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A SOMEWHAT RELAXED STATE
EARLY BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS AND A LARGE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WELL INLAND. IN GENERAL...NORTH WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO WEST AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. SEAS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT.

CONDITIONS WILL THEN RAPIDLY DETERIORATE LATER TONIGHT AS A POWERFUL
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS
BEHIND IT. GALE FORCE WINDS/GUSTS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL WATERS BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THUS A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS...INCLUDING THE CHS HARBOR BEGINNING AT 10Z SATURDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE OVER GEORGIA WATERS FIRST...AND BECAUSE OF
THAT WE HAVE PULLED UP THE START TIME OF THE GALES FOR AMZ354-374
AT 4 AM...HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY FOR THE OTHER WATERS. SEAS WILL
BUILD LATE TONIGHT...PEAKING BETWEEN 3-5 FT NEARSHORE TO 5-7 FT IN
OFFSHORE WATERS BY DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL WATERS
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOLID GALES INCREASING. GALE
WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES...INCLUDING THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. EXPECT WINDS OF 30-35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 35-40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT OFFSHORE WATERS.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 4-7 FT NEARSHORE...8-13 FT OFFSHORE. 1000 HPA
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 50-60 KT...SO ITS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE A FEW GUSTS TO STORM FORCE />=48 KT/ COULD OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WARMER OFFSHORE WATERS. ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY
ATTM...A STORM WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR SOME
LEGS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO
DO SO BEYOND 20 NM. NO ISSUES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED ALTHOUGH
SEAS WILL BE BUILDING BACK UP LATER IN THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT EAST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

BLOWOUT TIDES...STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PUSH TIDES INTO
THE -1 TO 0 FT MLLW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ATTM IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS
THROUGH LEVELS WILL REACH LEVELS WHERE NAVIGATION PROBLEMS
OCCUR...BUT THIS WILL WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR 40-45 MPH...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS IS WHERE FUEL MOISTURES APPEAR TO BE LOWEST
GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
/25 PERCENT/...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE AIR MASS IS A BIT WARMER
AND/OR DRIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. CONDITIONS COULD BE A BIT
DRIER SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. IN ANY
EVENT...LAND MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND. HEADLINES FOR CRITICAL WINDS AND NEAR
CRITICAL RH WILL BE ADDED TO THE FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT NOV 1...
KCHS 56 /1993/...
KSAV 52 /1925/...
KCXM 52 /1925/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ330-350-352.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ354-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/ST
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KFFC 312320 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
720 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH GEORGIA. ALL THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH DIVING A STRONG
UPPER LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. ALREADY SEE LIGHT RETURNS ON
RADAR ACROSS THE CWA WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER WITH THE DRY AIR
MOST OF THE PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. MAIN FOCUS OF THE
SHORT TERM IS THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT
WILL AFFECT NORTH GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO NORTH GEORGIA GENERALLY IN
THE MIDNIGHT TO MID MORNING TIME FRAME. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AT BRASSTOWN BALD BY 06Z WITH
THE COLUMN SATURATED BELOW ABOUT 800MB. WITH A CONDUCIVE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...EXPECT SOME OF THE SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS IN THE NORTH GEORGIA
MOUNTAINS WITH AROUND TWO INCHES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS
LINES UP WELL WITH THE SPREAD OF GUIDANCE. GIVEN THIS SETUP AND
FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATION...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH MID SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS THAT MAY SEE A FLURRY
TO A DUSTING HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN AN SPS.

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO
MAKE IT. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM SO HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEING
FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE METRO AREA.
EVEN THOUGH PARTS OF THE NORTHERN METRO AREA COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AROUND THE 12Z TIME PERIOD...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION.

WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP TONIGHT ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND BY
SATURDAY SOME AREAS MAY EVEN SEE WINDS GUSTS TO 40MPH. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CWA FOR SATURDAY. THE
STRONG WINDS ON SATURDAY COMBINED WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY ALLOW FOR THE WIND CHILL VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO REACH
THE 30S IN THE NORTHEAST...40S ACROSS THE METRO AREA AND 50S
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. END RESULT...ITS GOING TO FEEL VERY COLD
TOMORROW AND IF YOURE SPENDING ANY TIME OUTSIDE DRESS
APPROPRIATELY.

COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH BOTH
HIGH AND LOW TEMPS BEING WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE ABOUT TWENTY DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR THE MOST
PART...NOT EXPECTING TO BREAK ANY RECORDS FOR LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. CSG IS THE ONLY EXCEPTION WITH THE FORECAST BEING
WITHIN ONE DEGREE OF THE RECORD. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACROSS FAR NORTH
GEORGIA...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN TO FREEZING TONIGHT AND THUS
HAVE CONTINUED THE FREEZE WARNING. EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
FORECAST TO REACH FREEZING OR BELOW AND THUS A FREEZE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

11/RW

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE WEATHER EXCITEMENT OF THE SHORT TERM...THE LONG TERM
SEEMS A LITTLE BENIGN. EXTENDED BEGINS WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE AS HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVETRAIN PUSHES EAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT
ANOTHER COOL DAY SUNDAY /THOUGH NOT QUITE AS COLD AS SATURDAY/ AND
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING AGAIN WITH CALM WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
LIKELY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZE/FROST PRODUCTS SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT WILL DEAL WITH THAT TOMORROW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVER THE
AREA...AND REALLY FAIRLY PLEASANT BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH
PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE TO THE AREA AS WELL AS THE FRONT ELONGATES AND STRETCHES
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
TO POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES BUILDING IN ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE MOISTURE WASHES OUT. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO MAKE
ANY CHANGES BEYOND THAT AS WELL. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

TDP

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 508 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AND SATURDAY NIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 20S IN
THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK
WITH SOME TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD BE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF THIS NEXT FRONT...HOWEVER LOW POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

41
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUEL MOISTURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SINCE WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY MEET FIRE DANGER CRITERIA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN TOO HIGH SO NO CHANCE OF A RED
FLAG WARNING BUT IF FUEL MOISTURES DROP TONIGHT...MAY HAVE TO
ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR SATURDAY. WINDS DROP ENOUGH
SUNDAY THAT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALSO DIMINISH.

TDP

&&

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...PERSISTING THROUGH 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST BY 16-20Z. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS...ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AFTER 06Z.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH BY 20-00Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS 7-12KT WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT REACHING 12-16KT
W/ GUSTS 20-25KT BY 06-10Z AND 18-20KT W/ GUSTS 25-35KT BY 12Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          36  51  30  57 /  20  20   5   0
ATLANTA         34  50  31  55 /  20  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     32  43  26  51 /  50  60  10   0
CARTERSVILLE    33  49  28  54 /  20  20   0   0
COLUMBUS        37  55  33  60 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     36  49  31  55 /  20  20   5   0
MACON           36  56  32  59 /   5   5   0   0
ROME            33  50  29  55 /  30  20   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  34  52  28  56 /  20  10   0   0
VIDALIA         41  56  37  59 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...
FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...
GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...
TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TOWNS...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...
UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...
LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...
GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11/RW
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...11









000
FXUS62 KCHS 312147
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
547 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING...WE HAVE ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE CSRA AND INTO PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN
SC. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...VERY WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A POCKET OF SLIGHT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
/LIFTED INDICES 0 TO -2C AND SBCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG/.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL THEN CHANGE TONIGHT AS A MID/UPPER LVL
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE LARGE MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH...CAUSING AN IMPRESSIVE
DIGGING/AMPLIFYING TREND AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. AS THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS...A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA
BORDER...HELPING A POWERFUL COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA LATE...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
SURFACE WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ONSET OF
INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. IN GENERAL...WINDS
SHOULD GUST BETWEEN 15-20 MPH WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF DAYBREAK
SATURDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY COOL OFF POST
FROPA...INTO THE LOW/MID 40S. WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW TEMPS DIP
INTO THE UPPER 30S WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE IN THE OFFING FOR THE AREA AS AN
INCREDIBLY COLD AND POWERFUL SYSTEM FOR EARLY FALL AFFECTS THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A POTENT
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT
AND BRIEFLY CUTTING OFF ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY AS A
STRONG 115 KT JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN QUICKLY SOUTH VIA STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTED NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL QUICKLY
ENCOMPASS THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...BRING EXTREMELY
CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS OVERHEAD...500 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP IN THE -22 TO -26C RANGE WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO -2 TO -5C. IT SHOULD BE NOTED 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF
THIS MAGNITUDE FOR EARLY NOVEMBER ARE ABOUT 12 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL--CERTAINLY A TESTAMENT TO HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE.

TEMPERATURES: CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW/S COLD POCKET COUPLED WITH SUCH COLD LOW/MID-LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH
TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF SOME MODEL DATA SETS PROVE TO BE
CORRECT...SUCH AS THE NAM-12...AND/OR PRECIPITATION IS MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED...THE RESULTING DIABATIC COOLING COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH WHERE LOWER 50S
COULD BE REALIZED. ITS CERTAINLY A TOUGH CALL ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH THE EVENTUAL DIURNAL THERMAL CURVES BEING DRIVEN BY THE
AREA/INTENSITY OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS. IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST HOLDS...THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 56 /1993/ AT
THE CHARLESTON AIRPORT COULD FALL. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AREAS TO THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 ELSEWHERE.
THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS A BIT TOO DRY AND THE WIND TOO HIGH TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...ROUGHLY FROM MILLEN SOUTH TO TATTNALL AND POINTS WEST. A
FROST ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

PRECIPITATION: MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN DEPICTING VARIOUS AMOUNT OF QPF
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS UVV
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REGIONS...ONLY GIVING SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA A
QUICK...GLANCING BLOW. WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20-40 PERCENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-26...BUT ANY SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD DEVIATION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL NECESSITATE A HIGHER POP
REGIME. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH DIABATIC COOLING TO SUPPORT SOME
GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL AT TIMES...MAINLY IN POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
WHERE DIABATIC PROCESSES WILL BE MAXIMIZED. COULD ALSO HEAR A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH GIVEN THE INCREDIBLE LOW
LAPSE RATES...BUT THE RISK IS JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION JUST YET.

WINDS...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
SOUTH OF I-16 WHERE MIXING WILL BE MAXIMIZED DUE TO CONSIDERABLY
LESS CLOUD COVER. EXPECT WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH
IN THIS AREA...SO A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TATTNALL-EVANS-
BRYAN-CHATHAM-LIBERTY-LONG AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES...FROM 9AM-8PM
SATURDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT THE PRESENCE OF
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LOWERS CONFIDENCE ENOUGH TO NOT ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PLAN TO LIMIT
WINDS THERE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 MPH...OR JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION WANES AND THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. HIGHS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE DOWN RIGHT COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S TO THE MID-UPPER 30S AT THE COAST WITH
LOWER-MID 40S AT THE BEACHES. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD FROST LIKELY ROUGHLY NORTH
OF A HUGER-SUMMERVILLE-HENDERSONVILLE-CLYO-METTER LINE...BUT AWAY
FROM THE SHORES OF LAKE MOULTRIE. A FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS. LOWS AROUND FREEZING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF JENKINS-SCREVEN-ALLENDALE AS WELL AS NORTHERN PARTS OF
BERKELEY COUNTY...BUT EXPECT ANY FREEZE DURATIONS TO REMAIN 1-2
HOURS AT BEST. A FREEZE WATCH AND EVENTUALLY A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
IN LATER FORECAST CYCLES.

MONDAY...WARMER CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND WITH MID-UPPER 40S AT THE COAST. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL MAKE FOR
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LIKELY AROUND 35 KT AT TIMES...POSSIBLY
CLOSE TO 40 KT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH LATER IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT MEANS LITTLE TO NO
RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
18Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OVER BOTH
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. AS FROPA OCCURS...THERE WILL BE A LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS...MAINLY AT THE CHS TERMINAL. EXPECT STRONG
WINDS POST FROPA...WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY AND GUSTING BETWEEN 25-30 KTS BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS LIKELY SATURDAY...MAINLY AT
KCHS...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPACT HOWEVER...GUSTING AROUND 30 KT...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV.
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED SUN-WED.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A SOMEWHAT RELAXED STATE
EARLY BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS AND A LARGE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WELL INLAND. IN GENERAL...NORTH WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO WEST AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. SEAS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT.

CONDITIONS WILL THEN RAPIDLY DETERIORATE LATER TONIGHT AS A POWERFUL
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS
BEHIND IT. GALE FORCE WINDS/GUSTS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL WATERS BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THUS A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS...INCLUDING THE CHS HARBOR BEGINNING AT 10Z SATURDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE OVER GEORGIA WATERS FIRST...AND THERE IS A
CHANCE THE GALE WARNING WILL NEED TO BE STARTED AN HOUR OR SO
EARLIER THAN SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS. REGARDLESS...BRIEF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL WATERS BEFORE GALE
CONDITIONS OCCUR...BUT GIVEN THE QUICKLY CHANGING CONDITIONS HAVE
OPTED TO GO STRAIGHT INTO GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL
BUILD LATE TONIGHT...PEAKING BETWEEN 3-5 FT NEARSHORE TO 5-7 FT IN
OFFSHORE WATERS BY DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL WATERS
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOLID GALES INCREASING. GALE
WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES...INCLUDING THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. EXPECT WINDS OF 30-35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 35-40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT OFFSHORE WATERS.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 4-7 FT NEARSHORE...8-13 FT OFFSHORE. 1000 HPA
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 50-60 KT...SO ITS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE A FEW GUSTS TO STORM FORCE />=48 KT/ COULD OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WARMER OFFSHORE WATERS. ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY
ATTM...A STORM WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR SOME
LEGS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO
DO SO BEYOND 20 NM. NO ISSUES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED ALTHOUGH
SEAS WILL BE BUILDING BACK UP LATER IN THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT EAST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

BLOWOUT TIDES...STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PUSH TIDES INTO
THE -1 TO 0 FT MLLW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ATTM IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS
THROUGH LEVELS WILL REACH LEVELS WHERE NAVIGATION PROBLEMS
OCCUR...BUT THIS WILL WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR 40-45 MPH...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS IS WHERE FUEL MOISTURES APPEAR TO BE LOWEST
GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
/25 PERCENT/...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE AIR MASS IS A BIT WARMER
AND/OR DRIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. CONDITIONS COULD BE A BIT
DRIER SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. IN ANY
EVENT...LAND MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND. HEADLINES FOR CRITICAL WINDS AND NEAR
CRITICAL RH WILL BE ADDED TO THE FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT NOV 1...
KCHS 56 /1993/...
KSAV 52 /1925/...
KCXM 52 /1925/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ350-352-354-374.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/ST
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 312134
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
534 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW ALONG
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ALONG WITH THE
FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWS LIGHT ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH HELPING TO CUTOFF THE LOW OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TN
AND NRN GA. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A
STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION...THE MODELS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MIDLANDS TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES NORTH.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WINDS INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AND
TOWARDS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN
BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE...THE MAIN COLD SURGE WILL NOT MOVE IN
UNTIL TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT LOWS RIGHT NOW FORECAST GENERALLY AROUND
40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY
MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS WITH A GRADUAL TAPER IN POPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE LOCAL TOP-DOWN PRECIP TOOL KEEPS THE CWA IN ALL RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND THUS WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION MIXED IN
WITH THE LIGHT RAIN EARLY/MIDDAY SATURDAY. ALSO CAN NOT RULE OUT
SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD ALSO
BRING SOME GRAUPLE TO THE AREA.  NO ACCUMS...AND CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH. EXPECT RAIN TO BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE
EVENT.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER...NEARLY
15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH 50 DEGREES IN THE MIDLANDS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...THE
POSSIBLY THE LOWER 50S IN THE CSRA. THE OTHER FORECAST ISSUE TO
DEAL WITH DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING SURFACE
GRADIENT AND THE STRONG 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE SATURDAY
EVENING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN RATHER BREEZY
ACROSS THE LAKES FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT LAKE WIND ADVISORY WHICH RUNS FROM 10 AM
EDT SATURDAY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY
EVENING.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
PREVENT IDEAL STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING BY
KEEPING MUCH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED. THIS MEANS THAT
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE DETERMINED
BY THE COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE INSTEAD OF BY RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THIS PUTS LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. THE BEST NIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEARS TO BE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH UNDER LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR...AND AIRMASS WILL BE DRY. THIS
CREATES IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH UPPER 20S REMAINING POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. SOME OF THE NUMBERS FOR BUSH FIELD
STILL TRY TO TAKE THE TEMPERATURE DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER
20S...WHICH IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND SEASONABLY COLD FOR EARLY
NOVEMBER.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AT A MINIMUM WILL LIKELY NEED A FROST
ADVISORY...BUT IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE DOWNWARD TREND...AND IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...A FREEZE WARNING
MAN BE NEEDED INSTEAD FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THESE WOULD BE
ISSUED WITH LATER PACKAGES IF NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COOL AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST
INTO WEDNESDAY. MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WELL
BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF FREEZING/BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT
STILL REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AROUND
THE SURFACE HIGH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MUCH WARMER
MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AND LESS CONFIDENT BY
MID WEEK...DUE TO TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WED NGT/THU WITH APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTH. POPS ARE TOO
LOW AT TERMINALS...LESS THAN 50 PERCENT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AS A
PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUP BUT WILL PUT VCSH. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12Z-18Z. HAVE VFR THROUGH
AROUND 09Z THEN MVFR TO IFR AFTER 09Z AS CIGS LOWER DUE TO UPPER
LOW CROSSING THE REGION.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 311931
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
331 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH GEORGIA. ALL THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH DIVING A STRONG
UPPER LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. ALREADY SEE LIGHT RETURNS ON
RADAR ACROSS THE CWA WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER WITH THE DRY AIR
MOST OF THE PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. MAIN FOCUS OF THE
SHORT TERM IS THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT
WILL AFFECT NORTH GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO NORTH GEORGIA GENERALLY IN
THE MIDNIGHT TO MID MORNING TIME FRAME. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AT BRASSTOWN BALD BY 06Z WITH
THE COLUMN SATURATED BELOW ABOUT 800MB. WITH A CONDUCIVE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...EXPECT SOME OF THE SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS IN THE NORTH GEORGIA
MOUNTAINS WITH AROUND TWO INCHES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS
LINES UP WELL WITH THE SPREAD OF GUIDANCE. GIVEN THIS SETUP AND
FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATION...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH MID SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS THAT MAY SEE A FLURRY
TO A DUSTING HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN AN SPS.

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO
MAKE IT. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM SO HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEING
FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE METRO AREA.
EVEN THOUGH PARTS OF THE NORTHERN METRO AREA COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AROUND THE 12Z TIME PERIOD...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION.

WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP TONIGHT ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND BY
SATURDAY SOME AREAS MAY EVEN SEE WINDS GUSTS TO 40MPH. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CWA FOR SATURDAY. THE
STRONG WINDS ON SATURDAY COMBINED WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY ALLOW FOR THE WIND CHILL VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO REACH
THE 30S IN THE NORTHEAST...40S ACROSS THE METRO AREA AND 50S
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. END RESULT...ITS GOING TO FEEL VERY COLD
TOMORROW AND IF YOURE SPENDING ANY TIME OUTSIDE DRESS
APPROPRIATELY.

COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH BOTH
HIGH AND LOW TEMPS BEING WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE ABOUT TWENTY DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR THE MOST
PART...NOT EXPECTING TO BREAK ANY RECORDS FOR LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. CSG IS THE ONLY EXCEPTION WITH THE FORECAST BEING
WITHIN ONE DEGREE OF THE RECORD. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ACROSS FAR NORTH
GEORGIA...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN TO FREEZING TONIGHT AND THUS
HAVE CONTINUED THE FREEZE WARNING. EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
FORECAST TO REACH FREEZING OR BELOW AND THUS A FREEZE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

11/RW

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE WEATHER EXCITEMENT OF THE SHORT TERM...THE LONG TERM
SEEMS A LITTLE BENIGN. EXTENDED BEGINS WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE AS HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVETRAIN PUSHES EAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT
ANOTHER COOL DAY SUNDAY /THOUGH NOT QUITE AS COLD AS SATURDAY/ AND
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING AGAIN WITH CALM WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
LIKELY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZE/FROST PRODUCTS SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT WILL DEAL WITH THAT TOMORROW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVER THE
AREA...AND REALLY FAIRLY PLEASANT BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH
PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE TO THE AREA AS WELL AS THE FRONT ELONGATES AND STRETCHES
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
TO POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES BUILDING IN ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE MOISTURE WASHES OUT. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO MAKE
ANY CHANGES BEYOND THAT AS WELL. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

TDP

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 508 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AND SATURDAY NIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 20S IN
THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK
WITH SOME TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD BE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF THIS NEXT FRONT...HOWEVER LOW POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

41
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUEL MOISTURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SINCE WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY MEET FIRE DANGER CRITERIA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN TOO HIGH SO NO CHANCE OF A RED
FLAG WARNING BUT IF FUEL MOISTURES DROP TONIGHT...MAY HAVE TO
ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR SATURDAY. WINDS DROP ENOUGH
SUNDAY THAT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALSO DIMINISH.

TDP

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...HOWEVER MOST OF
IT IS NOT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. COULD SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE AT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BEST CHANCES ARE
AROUND 00Z TONIGHT. NOT HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE TO MENTION IN A TEMPO
SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT
WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS OF SATURDAY. MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CLOUDS
DIFFERENTLY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS KEEPING THE CLOUDS
BKN...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF SCT CLOUDS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND AND VSBYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CIGS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          36  51  30  57 /  20  20   5   0
ATLANTA         34  50  31  55 /  20  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     32  43  26  51 /  50  60  10   0
CARTERSVILLE    33  49  28  54 /  20  20   0   0
COLUMBUS        37  55  33  60 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     36  49  31  55 /  20  20   5   0
MACON           36  56  32  59 /   5   5   0   0
ROME            33  50  29  55 /  30  20   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  34  52  28  56 /  20  10   0   0
VIDALIA         41  56  37  59 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...
FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...
GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...
TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TOWNS...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...
UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...
LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...
GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11/RW
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...11






000
FXUS62 KCHS 311930
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
330 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS
EVENING BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND A LARGE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. CONDITIONS WILL
THEN CHANGE TONIGHT AS A MID/UPPER LVL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
MIDWEST DIVES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE
MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH...CAUSING AN IMPRESSIVE DIGGING/AMPLIFYING
TREND AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS
THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...HELPING A POWERFUL COLD FRONT
TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW COULD PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA LATE...BUT THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SURFACE WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING LATE TONIGHT
WITH THE ONSET OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. IN
GENERAL...WINDS SHOULD GUST BETWEEN 15-20 MPH WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY COOL OFF
POST FROPA...INTO THE LOW/MID 40S. WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW TEMPS DIP
INTO THE UPPER 30S WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE IN THE OFFING FOR THE AREA AS AN
INCREDIBLY COLD AND POWERFUL SYSTEM FOR EARLY FALL AFFECTS THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A POTENT
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT
AND BRIEFLY CUTTING OFF ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY AS A
STRONG 115 KT JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN QUICKLY SOUTH VIA STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTED NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL QUICKLY
ENCOMPASS THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...BRING EXTREMELY
CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS OVERHEAD...500 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP IN THE -22 TO -26C RANGE WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO -2 TO -5C. IT SHOULD BE NOTED 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF
THIS MAGNITUDE FOR EARLY NOVEMBER ARE ABOUT 12 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL--CERTAINLY A TESTAMENT TO HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE.

TEMPERATURES: CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW/S COLD POCKET COUPLED WITH SUCH COLD LOW/MID-LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH
TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF SOME MODEL DATA SETS PROVE TO BE
CORRECT...SUCH AS THE NAM-12...AND/OR PRECIPITATION IS MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED...THE RESULTING DIABATIC COOLING COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH WHERE LOWER 50S
COULD BE REALIZED. ITS CERTAINLY A TOUGH CALL ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH THE EVENTUAL DIURNAL THERMAL CURVES BEING DRIVEN BY THE
AREA/INTENSITY OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS. IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST HOLDS...THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 56 /1993/ AT
THE CHARLESTON AIRPORT COULD FALL. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AREAS TO THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 ELSEWHERE.
THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS A BIT TOO DRY AND THE WIND TOO HIGH TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...ROUGHLY FROM MILLEN SOUTH TO TATTNALL AND POINTS WEST. A
FROST ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

PRECIPITATION: MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN DEPICTING VARIOUS AMOUNT OF QPF
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS UVV
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REGIONS...ONLY GIVING SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA A
QUICK...GLANCING BLOW. WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20-40 PERCENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-26...BUT ANY SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD DEVIATION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL NECESSITATE A HIGHER POP
REGIME. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH DIABATIC COOLING TO SUPPORT SOME
GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL AT TIMES...MAINLY IN POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
WHERE DIABATIC PROCESSES WILL BE MAXIMIZED. COULD ALSO HEAR A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH GIVEN THE INCREDIBLE LOW
LAPSE RATES...BUT THE RISK IS JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION JUST YET.

WINDS...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
SOUTH OF I-16 WHERE MIXING WILL BE MAXIMIZED DUE TO CONSIDERABLY
LESS CLOUD COVER. EXPECT WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH
IN THIS AREA...SO A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TATTNALL-EVANS-
BRYAN-CHATHAM-LIBERTY-LONG AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES...FROM 9AM-8PM
SATURDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT THE PRESENCE OF
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LOWERS CONFIDENCE ENOUGH TO NOT ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PLAN TO LIMIT
WINDS THERE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 MPH...OR JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION WANES AND THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. HIGHS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE DOWN RIGHT COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S TO THE MID-UPPER 30S AT THE COAST WITH
LOWER-MID 40S AT THE BEACHES. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD FROST LIKELY ROUGHLY NORTH
OF A HUGER-SUMMERVILLE-HENDERSONVILLE-CLYO-METTER LINE...BUT AWAY
FROM THE SHORES OF LAKE MOULTRIE. A FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS. LOWS AROUND FREEZING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF JENKINS-SCREVEN-ALLENDALE AS WELL AS NORTHERN PARTS OF
BERKELEY COUNTY...BUT EXPECT ANY FREEZE DURATIONS TO REMAIN 1-2
HOURS AT BEST. A FREEZE WATCH AND EVENTUALLY A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
IN LATER FORECAST CYCLES.

MONDAY...WARMER CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND WITH MID-UPPER 40S AT THE COAST. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL MAKE FOR
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LIKELY AROUND 35 KT AT TIMES...POSSIBLY
CLOSE TO 40 KT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH LATER IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT MEANS LITTLE TO NO
RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
18Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OVER BOTH
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. AS FROPA OCCURS...THERE WILL BE A LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS...MAINLY AT THE CHS TERMINAL. EXPECT STRONG
WINDS POST FROPA...WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY AND GUSTING BETWEEN 25-30 KTS BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS LIKELY SATURDAY...MAINLY AT
KCHS...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPACT HOWEVER...GUSTING AROUND 30 KT...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV.
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED SUN-WED.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A SOMEWHAT RELAXED STATE
EARLY BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS AND A LARGE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WELL INLAND. IN GENERAL...NORTH WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO WEST AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. SEAS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT.

CONDITIONS WILL THEN RAPIDLY DETERIORATE LATER TONIGHT AS A POWERFUL
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS
BEHIND IT. GALE FORCE WINDS/GUSTS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL WATERS BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THUS A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS...INCLUDING THE CHS HARBOR BEGINNING AT 10Z SATURDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE OVER GEORGIA WATERS FIRST...AND THERE IS A
CHANCE THE GALE WARNING WILL NEED TO BE STARTED AN HOUR OR SO
EARLIER THAN SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS. REGARDLESS...BRIEF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL WATERS BEFORE GALE
CONDITIONS OCCUR...BUT GIVEN THE QUICKLY CHANGING CONDITIONS HAVE
OPTED TO GO STRAIGHT INTO GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL
BUILD LATE TONIGHT...PEAKING BETWEEN 3-5 FT NEARSHORE TO 5-7 FT IN
OFFSHORE WATERS BY DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL WATERS
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOLID GALES INCREASING. GALE
WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES...INCLUDING THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. EXPECT WINDS OF 30-35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 35-40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT OFFSHORE WATERS.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 4-7 FT NEARSHORE...8-13 FT OFFSHORE. 1000 HPA
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 50-60 KT...SO ITS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE A FEW GUSTS TO STORM FORCE />=48 KT/ COULD OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WARMER OFFSHORE WATERS. ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY
ATTM...A STORM WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR SOME
LEGS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO
DO SO BEYOND 20 NM. NO ISSUES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED ALTHOUGH
SEAS WILL BE BUILDING BACK UP LATER IN THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT EAST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

BLOWOUT TIDES...STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PUSH TIDES INTO
THE -1 TO 0 FT MLLW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ATTM IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS
THROUGH LEVELS WILL REACH LEVELS WHERE NAVIGATION PROBLEMS
OCCUR...BUT THIS WILL WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR 40-45 MPH...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS IS WHERE FUEL MOISTURES APPEAR TO BE LOWEST
GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
/25 PERCENT/...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE AIR MASS IS A BIT WARMER
AND/OR DRIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. CONDITIONS COULD BE A BIT
DRIER SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. IN ANY
EVENT...LAND MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND. HEADLINES FOR CRITICAL WINDS AND NEAR
CRITICAL RH WILL BE ADDED TO THE FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT NOV 1...
KCHS 56 /1993/...
KSAV 52 /1925/...
KCXM 52 /1925/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ350-352-354-374.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/ST
MARINE...DPB/ST
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 311746
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
146 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE
WILL LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST...LEAVING THE AREA IN A TRANSITIONAL ZONE
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT. OVERALL...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH TO OUR
NORTHWEST. A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
A RAIN-FREE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING...WITH OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH...CAUSING
THE TROUGH TO DIG/AMPLIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES LATE. AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...HELPING A POWERFUL
COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE ONSET OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY COOL OFF POST FROPA...INTO THE
LOW/MID 40S. WE COULD EVEN POTENTIALLY SEE A FEW TEMPS DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF CHARLESTON THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE /UP TO
AROUND 10K FT/ WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS. WITH SUCH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME THUNDER AND/OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST IMPACT THOUGH WILL BE THE WINDS
WHICH COULD GUST NEAR 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
LOW-LEVEL JET IS ANTICIPATED. THUS...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATED ROADWAYS. TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 50S NEAR CHARLESTON WHERE MORE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 50S ARE LIKELY TO THE
SOUTH...WARMEST NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. COLD ADVECTION WILL
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND AND CLOSER TO 40 AROUND THE
COAST. SHOULD BE A BIT TOO WINDY/DRY FOR MUCH FROST.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE LOW PULLS FARTHER
AWAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA. SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN
SATURDAY GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLDEST NIGHT OVERALL AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
CLOSER TO THE AREA LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY INLAND. TEMPS
COULD TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK IN THE SHELTERED INLAND AREAS.
THUS...A FREEZE WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. EITHER WAY
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME FROST SO A FROST ADVISORY IS ALSO
A POSSIBILITY.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSE TO THE SC COAST WITH A
MODERATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED...LIKELY GETTING BACK A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL MAKE FOR VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LIKELY AROUND 35 KT AT TIMES...POSSIBLY CLOSE
TO 40 KT. THUS...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH LATER IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT MEANS LITTLE TO NO
RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
18Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OVER BOTH
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. AS FROPA OCCURS...THERE WILL BE A LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS...MAINLY AT THE CHS TERMINAL. EXPECT STRONG
WINDS POST FROPA...WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY AND GUSTING BETWEEN 25-30 KTS BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY AT
KCHS...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPACT HOWEVER...GUSTING AROUND 30 KT...ESPECIALLY AT
KSAV. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED SUN-WED.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
GREATEST IMPACTS TO WINDS AND SEAS OVER NORTHERN SC WATERS. EXPECT
WINDS/SEAS TO GRADUALLY RELAX/SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SHIFTS TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS UPWARDS TO 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRENGTHENING LOW INITIALLY BEFORE THEY BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW TO 15 KTS AS THE LOW SHIFTS
AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...BUT WE COULD SEE WAVES UP NEAR 5 FT BEYOND 15 NM IN
NORTHERN SC WATERS.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. THEN...A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE GEORGIA WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT BEFORE GALE
WATCHES/WARNINGS TAKE EFFECT...SO JUST INDICATE THE INCREASING
TREND IN THE FORECAST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS SATURDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY INTO
THE HARBOR AS WELL. GALES ARE EXPECTED BEYOND 20 NM AND ARE LIKELY
WITHIN THE NEARSHORE WATERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD
ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PUSH TIDES
LOWER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO
DO SO BEYOND 20 NM. NO ISSUES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED ALTHOUGH
SEAS WILL BE BUILDING BACK UP LATER IN THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT EAST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS IS WHERE FUEL MOISTURES APPEAR TO BE
LOWEST GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
/25 PERCENT/ BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE AIR MASS IS A BIT WARMER
AND/OR DRIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. CONDITIONS COULD BE A BIT
DRIER SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. IN ANY
EVENT...LAND MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE
LATEST FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT NOV 1...
KCHS 56 /1993/...
KSAV 52 /1925/...
KCXM 52 /1925/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR AMZ330-350-352-354.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KFFC 311737 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
137 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1021 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
AND HAVE TWEAKED THE SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS UPWARD SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY BUT THESE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS WERE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS. IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...THE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS CURRENTLY FORECAST ARE AROUND AN INCH AND ONCE THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS RECEIVED...WE WILL EVALUATE ANY NEED FOR WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS.

OTHERWISE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 508 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
A LOT GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AND POSSIBLY OUR FIRST
ENCOUNTER WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
AN UNSEASONABLY POTENT UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIG
SOUTHWARD AND CUTOFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOWING MOISTURE CLIPPING NE GA BEGINNING TONIGHT AS
THIS NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS. BASED ON LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
PROGGED OMEGA...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN ACROSS NORTH GA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIP FRIDAY EVENING
AS THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR THE DRY SLOT TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE
STATE BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SAT. THE BACK SIDE MOISTURE BEGINS TO WRAP
AROUND THE EXITING LOW CENTER EARLY PUSHING INTO NE GA BETWEEN
06Z-12Z SAT. AS THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN A COLD AIRMASS IS
ALSO BEING ADVECTED SOUTHWARD AND COULD SEE TEMPS DIP BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. WITH THE COLD AIRMASS
AND MOISTURE OVER NORTH GA WE MAY ALE SEE OUR FIRST SNOW FALL OF THE
SEASON AS WELL. HAVE PUT IN A MENTION OF SNOW FOR NE GA BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS. THERMAL PROFILES NEAR
BRASSTOWN BALD ARE DEFINITELY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND SHOW SOME
DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINLY AFTER 03-06Z SATURDAY. FORECAST
850MB TEMPS EVEN GET AS LOW AS -8 C BASED ON THE GFS FOR 12Z
SATURDAY. AMOUNTS ARE NOT VERY CLEAR THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS POINT AT GENERALLY IN THE 0.20-0.50 INCH RANGE FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE TEMPS...THE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY STICK TO
GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES...THOUGH MAY STRUGGLE TO STICK TO
ROADWAYS GIVEN SOME HIGHER SOIL TEMPS. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH GOOD VORTICITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LINGERING FLURRIES EVEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHEAST AS WELL.
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG SATURDAY AS WELL AND WILL MOST
LIKELY REACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS.

01

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 508 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AND SATURDAY NIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 20S IN
THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK
WITH SOME TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD BE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF THIS NEXT FRONT...HOWEVER LOW POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...HOWEVER MOST OF
IT IS NOT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. COULD SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE AT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BEST CHANCES ARE
AROUND 00Z TONIGHT. NOT HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE TO MENTION IN A TEMPO
SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT
WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS OF SATURDAY. MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CLOUDS
DIFFERENTLY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS KEEPING THE CLOUDS
BKN...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF SCT CLOUDS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND AND VSBYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CIGS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  37  53  35 /  20  30  20   0
ATLANTA         65  35  51  36 /  20  20   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     57  30  44  29 /  40  40  40   0
CARTERSVILLE    63  35  50  33 /  30  30  10   0
COLUMBUS        71  39  56  39 /   5   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     63  36  49  35 /  30  30  20   0
MACON           72  39  56  37 /   5   5   5   0
ROME            63  34  50  34 /  30  30  10   0
PEACHTREE CITY  67  36  53  35 /  10  20   5   0
VIDALIA         74  40  56  40 /   5   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...
GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...11






000
FXUS62 KCHS 311713
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
113 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE
WILL LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST...LEAVING THE AREA IN A TRANSITIONAL ZONE
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT. OVERALL...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH TO OUR
NORTHWEST. A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
A RAIN-FREE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING...WITH OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH...CAUSING
THE TROUGH TO DIG/AMPLIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES LATE. AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...HELPING A POWERFUL
COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE ONSET OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY COOL OFF POST FROPA...INTO THE
LOW/MID 40S. WE COULD EVEN POTENTIALLY SEE A FEW TEMPS DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF CHARLESTON THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE /UP TO
AROUND 10K FT/ WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS. WITH SUCH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME THUNDER AND/OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST IMPACT THOUGH WILL BE THE WINDS
WHICH COULD GUST NEAR 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
LOW-LEVEL JET IS ANTICIPATED. THUS...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATED ROADWAYS. TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 50S NEAR CHARLESTON WHERE MORE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 50S ARE LIKELY TO THE
SOUTH...WARMEST NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. COLD ADVECTION WILL
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND AND CLOSER TO 40 AROUND THE
COAST. SHOULD BE A BIT TOO WINDY/DRY FOR MUCH FROST.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE LOW PULLS FARTHER
AWAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA. SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN
SATURDAY GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLDEST NIGHT OVERALL AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
CLOSER TO THE AREA LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY INLAND. TEMPS
COULD TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK IN THE SHELTERED INLAND AREAS.
THUS...A FREEZE WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. EITHER WAY
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME FROST SO A FROST ADVISORY IS ALSO
A POSSIBILITY.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSE TO THE SC COAST WITH A
MODERATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED...LIKELY GETTING BACK A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL MAKE FOR VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LIKELY AROUND 35 KT AT TIMES...POSSIBLY CLOSE
TO 40 KT. THUS...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH LATER IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT MEANS LITTLE TO NO
RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY AT
KCHS...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPACT HOWEVER...GUSTING AROUND 30 KT...ESPECIALLY AT
KSAV. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED SUN-WED.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
GREATEST IMPACTS TO WINDS AND SEAS OVER NORTHERN SC WATERS. EXPECT
WINDS/SEAS TO GRADUALLY RELAX/SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SHIFTS TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS UPWARDS TO 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRENGTHENING LOW INITIALLY BEFORE THEY BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW TO 15 KTS AS THE LOW SHIFTS
AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN
2-4 FT...BUT WE COULD SEE WAVES UP NEAR 5 FT BEYOND 15 NM IN
NORTHERN SC WATERS.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. THEN...A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE GEORGIA WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT BEFORE GALE
WATCHES/WARNINGS TAKE EFFECT...SO JUST INDICATE THE INCREASING
TREND IN THE FORECAST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS SATURDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY INTO
THE HARBOR AS WELL. GALES ARE EXPECTED BEYOND 20 NM AND ARE LIKELY
WITHIN THE NEARSHORE WATERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD
ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PUSH TIDES
LOWER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO
DO SO BEYOND 20 NM. NO ISSUES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED ALTHOUGH
SEAS WILL BE BUILDING BACK UP LATER IN THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT EAST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS IS WHERE FUEL MOISTURES APPEAR TO BE
LOWEST GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
/25 PERCENT/ BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE AIR MASS IS A BIT WARMER
AND/OR DRIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. CONDITIONS COULD BE A BIT
DRIER SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. IN ANY
EVENT...LAND MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE
LATEST FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT NOV 1...
KCHS 56 /1993/...
KSAV 52 /1925/...
KCXM 52 /1925/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR AMZ330-350-352-354.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCAE 311514
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1114 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW ALONG
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ALONG WITH THE
FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...WV LOOP ALREADY INDICATING THE SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES THAT WILL DEEPEN THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST/ROCKIES. THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN BASICALLY DRY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE
INDICATED THAT LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN MIDLANDS...A FEW HOURS EARLIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN/NORTHERN MIDLANDS BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS AND FORECASTED
MID/UPPER 60S NORTHWEST/NORTH TO LOWER 70S CSRA/SRN MIDLANDS.

TONIGHT...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THE DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE BASE HELPING TO CUTOFF THE LOW
OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TN AND NRN GA. GIVEN THE STRONG
DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING
TOWARDS THE REGION...THE MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING
SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES NORTH. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
WINDS INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARDS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE...THE MAIN
COLD SURGE WILL NOT MOVE IN UNTIL TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT LOWS RIGHT
NOW FORECAST GENERALLY AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPSTATE/UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN CONTINUING EASTWARD
ACROSS SC TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL POPS ON
SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH A GRADUAL TAPER IN POPS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL...WITH H5
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -26 TO -28 DEGREES C BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION
EARLY/MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
GRAUPEL. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S...SOME OF THIS
MAY MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS HAS OCCURRED IN SIMILAR PAST
EVENTS. HOWEVER...EXPECT RAIN TO BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE
THROUGH THE EVENT.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER...NEARLY
15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH 50 DEGREES IN THE MIDLANDS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO MID 50S IN THE CSRA. THE
OTHER FACTOR DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING SURFACE
GRADIENT AND THE 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...AT 3K TO 4K FT...MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.
WITH THE LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
RATHER BREEZY ACROSS THE LAKES FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT LAKE WIND ADVISORY WHICH
RUNS FROM 10 AM EDT SATURDAY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY. SUSTAINED
WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY WITH COLD DRY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL PREVENT STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING BY KEEPING BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND LOW
TEMPS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND
LOCAL NUMBERS.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT
STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. SUNDAY
NIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE BEST NIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWAT
VALUES AROUND 0.20...CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
TREND DOWNWARD FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THIS AND THE ABOVE CONDITIONS HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT MUCH OF
THE AREA TO HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S WITH SOME MIDDLE
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
LIKE CEDAR CREEK...PELION...SALUDA...JOHNSTON AND MCCORMICK COULD
FALL BELOW FREEZING. SOME OF THE NUMBERS FOR BUSH FIELD TAKE THE
TEMPERATURE DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S...QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND
SEASONABLY COLD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.

SOME THOUGHTS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...AT A MINIMUM WILL
LIKELY NEED A FROST ADVISORY. IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE DOWNWARD
TREND COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT DIFFERENCES INCREASE FOR THE WED/THU TIME FRAME.

A 1030MB SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
OHIO/MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED ALONG
WITH SOME AREAS OF FREEZING/BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. FULL
SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT STILL REMAINING WELL
BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY
WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MUCH WARMER MIN
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AND LESS CONFIDENT BY
MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE
REGION...DRIVEN BY NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH THE FRONTAL
POSITION MID WEEK AND PUSH IT ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME
THURSDAY...BUT HAS LESS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
DEPICTS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...INFUSED WITH
ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TD 21.  WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU WITH APPROACHING
FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTH. POPS ARE TOO LOW...
LESS THAN 50 PERCENT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AS A PREVAILING OR
TEMPO GROUP BUT WILL PUT VCSH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE VFR THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD EXCEPT IFR TO MVFR AT CAE...CUB...AND OGB AFTER 09Z AS
CIGS LOWER.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 311445
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1045 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD
FROST ALONG WITH THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THE EVOLUTION OF THE COMPLEX
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. MORNING
WV LOOP ALREADY INDICATING THE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES THAT WILL DEEPEN THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE WEST/ROCKIES. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN BASICALLY DRY
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE INDICATED THAT LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS...A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN/NORTHERN
MIDLANDS BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE STAYED CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS AND FORECASTED MID/UPPER 60S NORTHWEST/NORTH TO LOWER
70S CSRA/SRN MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD AS A DEEP 535 TO 538 DECAMETER CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVES
SOUTHWARD FROM MIDWEST/OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPSTATE/UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN CONTINUING EASTWARD ACROSS
SC TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

MOISTURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE STRONG
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. HAVE GRADUALLY
INCREASED POPS FROM THE EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS INCREASING TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH A
GRADUAL TAPER IN POPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SIGNIFICANT
COLD POOL...WITH H5 TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM -23 DEGREES C THIS
EVENING TO -26 TO -28 DEGREES C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL ADD IN CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SHOWERS. HAVE ALSO DECIDED
TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FROM MIDDAY
SATURDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE3D TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF FROZEN
PRECIPITATION EARLY/MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
FORM OF GRAUPEL. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S...SOME
OF THIS MAY MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS HAS OCCURRED IN
SIMILAR PAST EVENTS. HOWEVER...EXPECT RAIN TO BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE EVENT.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER...NEARLY
15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH
50 DEGREES IN THE MIDLANDS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO MID 50S IN THE CSRA. THE
OTHER FACTOR DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING SURFACE
GRADIENT AND THE 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...AT 3K TO 4K FT...MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CWA ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE SATURDAY EVENING WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN RATHER BREEZY ACROSS THE LAKES
FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL GO AHEAD IN
COORDINATION WITH CHS AND ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
PERIOD MENTIONED ABOVE. SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY WITH COLD DRY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL PREVENT STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING BY KEEPING BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND LOW
TEMPS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND
LOCAL NUMBERS.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT
STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. SUNDAY
NIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE BEST NIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWAT
VALUES AROUND 0.20...CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
TREND DOWNWARD FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THIS AND THE ABOVE CONDITIONS HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT MUCH OF
THE AREA TO HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S WITH SOME MIDDLE
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
LIKE CEDAR CREEK...PELION...SALUDA...JOHNSTON AND MCCORMICK COULD
FALL BELOW FREEZING. SOME OF THE NUMBERS FOR BUSH FIELD TAKE THE
TEMPERATURE DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S...QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND
SEASONABLY COLD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.

SOME THOUGHTS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...AT A MINIMUM WILL
LIKELY NEED A FROST ADVISORY. IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE DOWNWARD
TREND COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT DIFFERENCES INCREASE FOR THE WED/THU TIME FRAME.

A 1030MB SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
OHIO/MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED ALONG
WITH SOME AREAS OF FREEZING/BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. FULL
SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT STILL REMAINING WELL
BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY
WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MUCH WARMER MIN
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AND LESS CONFIDENT BY
MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE
REGION...DRIVEN BY NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH THE FRONTAL
POSITION MID WEEK AND PUSH IT ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME
THURSDAY...BUT HAS LESS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
DEPICTS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...INFUSED WITH
ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TD 21.  WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU WITH APPROACHING
FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTH. POPS ARE TOO LOW...
LESS THAN 50 PERCENT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AS A PREVAILING OR
TEMPO GROUP BUT WILL PUT VCSH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE VFR THRUOGH THE
TAF PERIOD EXCEPT IFR TO MVFR AT CAE...CUB...AND OGB AFTER 09Z AS
CIGS LOWER.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCHS 311435
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1035 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...A H5 SHORTWAVE DEPICTED ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...HELPING INITIATE CYCLOGENESIS
ALONG A STALLED FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE WILL
LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE AREA IN A
TRANSITIONAL ZONE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. OVERALL...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER
LVL TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST. A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A RAIN-FREE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS ONLY AROUND 70 IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND LOWER 70S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO DIG/AMPLIFY
AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MID/UPPER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SHIFT INTO
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE. AS THIS
OCCURS...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...HELPING A POWERFUL COLD FRONT TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
ONSET OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL QUICKLY COOL OFF POST FROPA...INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF CHARLESTON THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE /UP TO
AROUND 10K FT/ WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS. WITH SUCH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME THUNDER AND/OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST IMPACT THOUGH WILL BE THE WINDS
WHICH COULD GUST NEAR 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
LOW-LEVEL JET IS ANTICIPATED. THUS...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATED ROADWAYS. TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 50S NEAR CHARLESTON WHERE MORE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 50S ARE LIKELY TO THE
SOUTH...WARMEST NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. COLD ADVECTION WILL
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND AND CLOSER TO 40 AROUND THE
COAST. SHOULD BE A BIT TOO WINDY/DRY FOR MUCH FROST.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE LOW PULLS FARTHER
AWAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA. SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN
SATURDAY GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLDEST NIGHT OVERALL AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
CLOSER TO THE AREA LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY INLAND. TEMPS
COULD TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK IN THE SHELTERED INLAND AREAS.
THUS...A FREEZE WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. EITHER WAY
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME FROST SO A FROST ADVISORY IS ALSO
A POSSIBILITY.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSE TO THE SC COAST WITH A
MODERATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED...LIKELY GETTING BACK A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL MAKE FOR VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LIKELY AROUND 35 KT AT TIMES...POSSIBLY CLOSE
TO 40 KT. THUS...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH LATER IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT MEANS LITTLE TO NO
RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY AT
KCHS...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPACT HOWEVER...GUSTING AROUND 30 KT...ESPECIALLY AT
KSAV. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED SUN-WED.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SFC LOW OFFSHORE WILL TEMPORARILY RELAX OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS UPWARDS TO 15-20 KTS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRENGTHENING LOW INITIALLY BEFORE
THEY BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW TO 15 KTS AS THE
LOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN 2-4 FT...BUT WE COULD SEE WAVES UP NEAR 5 FT BEYOND 15 NM IN
NORTHERN SC WATERS.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. THEN...A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE GEORGIA WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT BEFORE GALE
WATCHES/WARNINGS TAKE EFFECT...SO JUST INDICATE THE INCREASING
TREND IN THE FORECAST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS SATURDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY INTO
THE HARBOR AS WELL. GALES ARE EXPECTED BEYOND 20 NM AND ARE LIKELY
WITHIN THE NEARSHORE WATERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD
ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PUSH TIDES
LOWER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO
DO SO BEYOND 20 NM. NO ISSUES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED ALTHOUGH
SEAS WILL BE BUILDING BACK UP LATER IN THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT EAST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS IS WHERE FUEL MOISTURES APPEAR TO BE
LOWEST GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
/25 PERCENT/ BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE AIR MASS IS A BIT WARMER
AND/OR DRIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. CONDITIONS COULD BE A BIT
DRIER SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. IN ANY
EVENT...LAND MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE
LATEST FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT NOV 1...
KCHS 56 /1993/...
KSAV 52 /1925/...
KCXM 52 /1925/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR AMZ330-350-352-354.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KFFC 311421 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1021 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...

HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
AND HAVE TWEAKED THE SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS UPWARD SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY BUT THESE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS WERE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS. IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...THE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS CURRENTLY FORECAST ARE AROUND AN INCH AND ONCE THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS RECEIVED...WE WILL EVALUATE ANY NEED FOR WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS.

OTHERWISE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...


SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 508 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
A LOT GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AND POSSIBLY OUR FIRST
ENCOUNTER WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
AN UNSEASONABLY POTENT UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIG
SOUTHWARD AND CUTOFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOWING MOISTURE CLIPPING NE GA BEGINNING TONIGHT AS
THIS NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS. BASED ON LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
PROGGED OMEGA...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN ACROSS NORTH GA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIP FRIDAY EVENING
AS THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR THE DRY SLOT TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE
STATE BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SAT. THE BACK SIDE MOISTURE BEGINS TO WRAP
AROUND THE EXITING LOW CENTER EARLY PUSHING INTO NE GA BETWEEN
06Z-12Z SAT. AS THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN A COLD AIRMASS IS
ALSO BEING ADVECTED SOUTHWARD AND COULD SEE TEMPS DIP BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. WITH THE COLD AIRMASS
AND MOISTURE OVER NORTH GA WE MAY ALE SEE OUR FIRST SNOW FALL OF THE
SEASON AS WELL. HAVE PUT IN A MENTION OF SNOW FOR NE GA BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS. THERMAL PROFILES NEAR
BRASSTOWN BALD ARE DEFINITELY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND SHOW SOME
DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINLY AFTER 03-06Z SATURDAY. FORECAST
850MB TEMPS EVEN GET AS LOW AS -8 C BASED ON THE GFS FOR 12Z
SATURDAY. AMOUNTS ARE NOT VERY CLEAR THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS POINT AT GENERALLY IN THE 0.20-0.50 INCH RANGE FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE TEMPS...THE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY STICK TO
GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES...THOUGH MAY STRUGGLE TO STICK TO
ROADWAYS GIVEN SOME HIGHER SOIL TEMPS. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH GOOD VORTICITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LINGERING FLURRIES EVEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHEAST AS WELL.
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG SATURDAY AS WELL AND WILL MOST
LIKELY REACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS.

01

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 508 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AND SATURDAY NIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 20S IN
THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK
WITH SOME TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD BE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF THIS NEXT FRONT...HOWEVER LOW POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

41

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 725 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD BUT THINGS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF
THE NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT WINDS SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 10KT OR LESS BUT
WILL SEE SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20KT GUSTING TO 30KT BY 10Z-12Z SAT.
CLOUDS ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS 8000FT
TO 12000FT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH BKN025 EXPECTED BY 01Z AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
IN THE ATL AREA TAF SITES. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT A BIT THROUGH SAT
MORNING WITH BKN035 EXPECTED BY 12Z AND SCT050 EXPECTED BY 16Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND WIND SPEEDS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VSBYS...AND PRECIP.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          67  37  53  35 /  20  30  20   0
ATLANTA         66  35  51  36 /  20  20   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     57  30  44  29 /  40  40  40   0
CARTERSVILLE    64  35  50  33 /  30  30  10   0
COLUMBUS        71  39  56  39 /   5   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     62  36  49  35 /  30  30  20   0
MACON           71  39  56  37 /   5   5   5   0
ROME            64  34  50  34 /  30  30  10   0
PEACHTREE CITY  67  36  53  35 /  10  20   5   0
VIDALIA         74  40  56  40 /   5   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...
GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...11






000
FXUS62 KCAE 311148
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
748 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD
FROST ALONG WITH THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THE EVOLUTION OF THE COMPLEX
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. MORNING
WV LOOP ALREADY INDICATING THE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES THAT WILL DEEPEN THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE WEST/ROCKIES. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN BASICALLY DRY
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE INDICATED THAT LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS...A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN/NORTHERN
MIDLANDS BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE STAYED CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS AND FORECASTED MID/UPPER 60S NORTHWEST/NORTH TO LOWER
70S CSRA/SRN MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD AS A DEEP 535 TO 538 DECAMETER CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVES
SOUTHWARD FROM MIDWEST/OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPSTATE/UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN CONTINUING EASTWARD ACROSS
SC TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

MOISTURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE STRONG
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. HAVE GRADUALLY
INCREASED POPS FROM THE EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS INCREASING TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH A
GRADUAL TAPER IN POPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SIGNIFICANT
COLD POOL...WITH H5 TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM -23 DEGREES C THIS
EVENING TO -26 TO -28 DEGREES C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL ADD IN CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SHOWERS. HAVE ALSO DECIDED
TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FROM MIDDAY
SATURDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE3D TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF FROZEN
PRECIPITATION EARLY/MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
FORM OF GRAUPEL. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S...SOME
OF THIS MAY MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS HAS OCCURRED IN
SIMILAR PAST EVENTS. HOWEVER...EXPECT RAIN TO BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE EVENT.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER...NEARLY
15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH
50 DEGREES IN THE MIDLANDS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO MID 50S IN THE CSRA. THE
OTHER FACTOR DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING SURFACE
GRADIENT AND THE 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...AT 3K TO 4K FT...MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CWA ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE SATURDAY EVENING WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN RATHER BREEZY ACROSS THE LAKES
FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL GO AHEAD IN
COORDINATION WITH CHS AND ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
PERIOD MENTIONED ABOVE. SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY WITH COLD DRY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL PREVENT STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING BY KEEPING BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND LOW
TEMPS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND
LOCAL NUMBERS.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT
STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. SUNDAY
NIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE BEST NIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWAT
VALUES AROUND 0.20...CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
TREND DOWNWARD FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THIS AND THE ABOVE CONDITIONS HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT MUCH OF
THE AREA TO HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S WITH SOME MIDDLE
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
LIKE CEDAR CREEK...PELION...SALUDA...JOHNSTON AND MCCORMICK COULD
FALL BELOW FREEZING. SOME OF THE NUMBERS FOR BUSH FIELD TAKE THE
TEMPERATURE DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S...QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND
SEASONABLY COLD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.

SOME THOUGHTS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...AT A MINIMUM WILL
LIKELY NEED A FROST ADVISORY. IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE DOWNWARD
TREND COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT DIFFERENCES INCREASE FOR THE WED/THU TIME FRAME.

A 1030MB SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
OHIO/MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED ALONG
WITH SOME AREAS OF FREEZING/BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. FULL
SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT STILL REMAINING WELL
BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY
WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MUCH WARMER MIN
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AND LESS CONFIDENT BY
MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE
REGION...DRIVEN BY NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH THE FRONTAL
POSITION MID WEEK AND PUSH IT ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME
THURSDAY...BUT HAS LESS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
DEPICTS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...INFUSED WITH
ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TD 21.  WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU WITH APPROACHING
FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTH. HAVE -SHRA MOVING INTO
CAE AND CUB AFTER 09Z. ELSEWHERE POPS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS AS A PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUP BUT WILL PUT VCSH. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
MODELS ALSO INDICATE CIGS RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS AFFECTING
CAE/CUB/OGB AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA CROSSES THE
REGION.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCHS 311145
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
745 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND IS INDUCING
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE GULF STREAM OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE AREA REMAINS RAIN-FREE AS SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPS AND DRIER AIR ALOFT ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE.

TODAY...THE COASTAL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...LEAVING THE AREA IN A SOMEWHAT
TRANSITIONAL ZONE WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST TODAY AND AMPLIFY AS A POTENT UPPER LOW DIVES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL...WITH NO POTENTIAL FOR ANY
RAINFALL GIVEN A LACK OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE OR ANY FORCING
MECHANISM. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND COMBINED WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY REACH AROUND
70 ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST...CROSSING THE SOUTHERLY APPALACHIANS AND SHIFTING INTO
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE. AS THIS
OCCURS...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER AND ALLOW A POWERFUL COLD FRONT TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
WITH THE ONSET OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING OFF LATE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF CHARLESTON THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE /UP TO
AROUND 10K FT/ WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS. WITH SUCH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME THUNDER AND/OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST IMPACT THOUGH WILL BE THE WINDS
WHICH COULD GUST NEAR 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
LOW-LEVEL JET IS ANTICIPATED. THUS...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATED ROADWAYS. TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 50S NEAR CHARLESTON WHERE MORE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 50S ARE LIKELY TO THE
SOUTH...WARMEST NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. COLD ADVECTION WILL
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND AND CLOSER TO 40 AROUND THE
COAST. SHOULD BE A BIT TOO WINDY/DRY FOR MUCH FROST.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE LOW PULLS FARTHER
AWAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA. SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN
SATURDAY GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLDEST NIGHT OVERALL AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
CLOSER TO THE AREA LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY INLAND. TEMPS
COULD TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK IN THE SHELTERED INLAND AREAS.
THUS...A FREEZE WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. EITHER WAY
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME FROST SO A FROST ADVISORY IS ALSO
A POSSIBILITY.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSE TO THE SC COAST WITH A
MODERATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED...LIKELY GETTING BACK A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL MAKE FOR VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LIKELY AROUND 35 KT AT TIMES...POSSIBLY CLOSE
TO 40 KT. THUS...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH LATER IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT MEANS LITTLE TO NO
RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY AT
KCHS...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPACT HOWEVER...GUSTING AROUND 30 KT...ESPECIALLY AT
KSAV. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED SUN-WED.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT THIS MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF STREAM OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT
POSSIBLE. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT OR LESS AND GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. THEN...A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE GEORGIA WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT BEFORE GALE
WATCHES/WARNINGS TAKE EFFECT...SO JUST INDICATE THE INCREASING
TREND IN THE FORECAST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS SATURDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY INTO
THE HARBOR AS WELL. GALES ARE EXPECTED BEYOND 20 NM AND ARE LIKELY
WITHIN THE NEARSHORE WATERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD
ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PUSH TIDES
LOWER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO
DO SO BEYOND 20 NM. NO ISSUES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED ALTHOUGH
SEAS WILL BE BUILDING BACK UP LATER IN THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT EAST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS IS WHERE FUEL MOISTURES APPEAR TO BE
LOWEST GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
/25 PERCENT/ BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE AIR MASS IS A BIT WARMER
AND/OR DRIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. CONDITIONS COULD BE A BIT
DRIER SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. IN ANY
EVENT...LAND MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE
LATEST FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT NOV 1...
KCHS 56 /1993/...
KSAV 52 /1925/...
KCXM 52 /1925/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR AMZ330-350-352-354.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB
FIRE WEATHER...RJB
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KFFC 311125
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
725 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A LOT GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AND POSSIBLY OUR FIRST
ENCOUNTER WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
AN UNSEASONABLY POTENT UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIG
SOUTHWARD AND CUTOFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOWING MOISTURE CLIPPING NE GA BEGINNING TONIGHT AS
THIS NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS. BASED ON LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
PROGGED OMEGA...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN ACROSS NORTH GA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIP FRIDAY EVENING
AS THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR THE DRY SLOT TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE
STATE BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SAT. THE BACK SIDE MOISTURE BEGINS TO WRAP
AROUND THE EXITING LOW CENTER EARLY PUSHING INTO NE GA BETWEEN
06Z-12Z SAT. AS THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN A COLD AIRMASS IS
ALSO BEING ADVECTED SOUTHWARD AND COULD SEE TEMPS DIP BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. WITH THE COLD AIRMASS
AND MOISTURE OVER NORTH GA WE MAY ALE SEE OUR FIRST SNOW FALL OF THE
SEASON AS WELL. HAVE PUT IN A MENTION OF SNOW FOR NE GA BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS. THERMAL PROFILES NEAR
BRASSTOWN BALD ARE DEFINITELY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND SHOW SOME
DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINLY AFTER 03-06Z SATURDAY. FORECAST
850MB TEMPS EVEN GET AS LOW AS -8 C BASED ON THE GFS FOR 12Z
SATURDAY. AMOUNTS ARE NOT VERY CLEAR THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS POINT AT GENERALLY IN THE 0.20-0.50 INCH RANGE FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE TEMPS...THE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY STICK TO
GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES...THOUGH MAY STRUGGLE TO STICK TO
ROADWAYS GIVEN SOME HIGHER SOIL TEMPS. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH GOOD VORTICITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LINGERING FLURRIES EVEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHEAST AS WELL.
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG SATURDAY AS WELL AND WILL MOST
LIKELY REACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS.

01

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AND SATURDAY NIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 20S IN
THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK
WITH SOME TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD BE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF THIS NEXT FRONT...HOWEVER LOW POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD BUT THINGS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF
THE NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT WINDS SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 10KT OR LESS BUT
WILL SEE SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20KT GUSTING TO 30KT BY 10Z-12Z SAT.
CLOUDS ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS 8000FT
TO 12000FT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH BKN025 EXPECTED BY 01Z AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
IN THE ATL AREA TAF SITES. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT A BIT THROUGH SAT
MORNING WITH BKN035 EXPECTED BY 12Z AND SCT050 EXPECTED BY 16Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND WIND SPEEDS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VSBYS...AND PRECIP.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          67  37  53  35 /  10  30  20   0
ATLANTA         66  35  51  36 /  10  10   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     57  30  44  29 /  40  40  40   0
CARTERSVILLE    64  35  50  33 /  20  20  10   0
COLUMBUS        71  39  56  39 /   5   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     62  36  49  35 /  30  30  20   0
MACON           71  39  56  37 /   5   5   5   0
ROME            64  34  50  34 /  30  30  10   0
PEACHTREE CITY  67  36  53  35 /  10  10   5   0
VIDALIA         74  40  56  40 /   5   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...
GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01






000
FXUS62 KCAE 311016
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
616 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST
ALONG WITH THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FIRST OF ALL...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THE
EVOLUTION OF THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
OVER THE WEEKEND. MORNING WV LOOP ALREADY INDICATING THE SEVERAL
S/W THAT WILL DEEPEN THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST/ROCKIES. THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN BASICALLY DRY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE
INDICATED THAT LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN MIDLANDS...A FEW HOURS EARLIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN/NORTHERN MIDLANDS BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS AND FORECASTED
MID/UPPER 60S NORTHWEST/NORTH TO LOWER 70S CSRA/SRN MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD AS A DEEP 535 TO 538 DECAMETER CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVES
SOUTHWARD FROM MIDWEST/OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPSTATE/UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN CONTINUING EASTWARD ACROSS
SC TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

MOISTURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE STRONG
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. HAVE GRADUALLY
INCREASED POPS FROM THE EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS INCREASING TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH A
GRADUAL TAPER IN POPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SIGNIFICANT
COLD POOL...WITH H5 TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM -23 DEGREES C THIS
EVENING TO -26 TO -28 DEGREES C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL ADD IN CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SHOWERS. HAVE ALSO DECIDED
TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FROM MIDDAY
SATURDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE3D TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF FROZEN
PRECIPITATION EARLY/MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
FORM OF GRAUPEL. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S...SOME
OF THIS MAY MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS HAS OCCURRED IN
SIMILAR PAST EVENTS. HOWEVER...EXPECT RAIN TO BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE EVENT.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER...NEARLY
15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH
50 DEGREES IN THE MIDLANDS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO MID 50S IN THE CSRA. THE
OTHER FACTOR DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING SURFACE
GRADIENT AND THE 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...AT 3K TO 4K FT...MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CWA ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE SATURDAY EVENING WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN RATHER BREEZY ACROSS THE LAKES
FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL GO AHEAD IN
COORDINATION WITH CHS AND ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
PERIOD MENTIONED ABOVE. SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY WITH COLD DRY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL PREVENT STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING BY KEEPING BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND LOW
TEMPS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND
LOCAL NUMBERS.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT
STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. SUNDAY
NIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE BEST NIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWAT
VALUES AROUND 0.20...CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
TREND DOWNWARD FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THIS AND THE ABOVE CONDITIONS HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT MUCH OF
THE AREA TO HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S WITH SOME MIDDLE
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
LIKE CEDAR CREEK...PELION...SALUDA...JOHNSTON AND MCCORMICK COULD
FALL BELOW FREEZING. SOME OF THE NUMBERS FOR BUSH FIELD TAKE THE
TEMPERATURE DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S...QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND
SEASONABLY COLD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.

SOME THOUGHTS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...AT A MINIMUM WILL
LIKELY NEED A FROST ADVISORY. IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE DOWNWARD
TREND COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT DIFFERENCES INCREASE FOR THE WED/THU TIME FRAME.

A 1030MB SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
OHIO/MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED ALONG
WITH SOME AREAS OF FREEZING/BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. FULL
SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT STILL REMAINING WELL
BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY
WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MUCH WARMER MIN
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AND LESS CONFIDENT BY
MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE
REGION...DRIVEN BY NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH THE FRONTAL
POSITION MID WEEK AND PUSH IT ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME
THURSDAY...BUT HAS LESS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
DEPICTS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...INFUSED WITH
ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TD 21.  WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU WITH APPROACHING
FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOG AFFECTING AGS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
TODAY WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ALSO INDICATE CIGS RESTRICTIONS WITH
SHOWERS AFFECTING CAE/CUB/OGB AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA
CROSSES THE REGION.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.

&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 310919
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
519 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND IS INDUCING
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE GULF STREAM OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE AREA REMAINS RAIN-FREE AS SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPS AND DRIER AIR ALOFT ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE.

TODAY...THE COASTAL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...LEAVING THE AREA IN A SOMEWHAT
TRANSITIONAL ZONE WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST TODAY AND AMPLIFY AS A POTENT UPPER LOW DIVES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL...WITH NO POTENTIAL FOR ANY
RAINFALL GIVEN A LACK OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE OR ANY FORCING
MECHANISM. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND COMBINED WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY REACH AROUND
70 ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST...CROSSING THE SOUTHERLY APPALACHIANS AND SHIFTING INTO
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE. AS THIS
OCCURS...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER AND ALLOW A POWERFUL COLD FRONT TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
WITH THE ONSET OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING OFF LATE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF CHARLESTON THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE /UP TO
AROUND 10K FT/ WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS. WITH SUCH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME THUNDER AND/OR SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST IMPACT THOUGH WILL BE THE WINDS
WHICH COULD GUST NEAR 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
LOW-LEVEL JET IS ANTICIPATED. THUS...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATED ROADWAYS. TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 50S NEAR CHARLESTON WHERE MORE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 50S ARE LIKELY TO THE
SOUTH...WARMEST NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. COLD ADVECTION WILL
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND AND CLOSER TO 40 AROUND THE
COAST. SHOULD BE A BIT TOO WINDY/DRY FOR MUCH FROST.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE LOW PULLS FARTHER
AWAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA. SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN
SATURDAY GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLDEST NIGHT OVERALL AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
CLOSER TO THE AREA LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY INLAND. TEMPS
COULD TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK IN THE SHELTERED INLAND AREAS.
THUS...A FREEZE WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. EITHER WAY
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME FROST SO A FROST ADVISORY IS ALSO
A POSSIBILITY.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSE TO THE SC COAST WITH A
MODERATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED...LIKELY GETTING BACK A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL MAKE FOR VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LIKELY AROUND 35 KT AT TIMES...POSSIBLY CLOSE
TO 40 KT. THUS...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH LATER IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT MEANS LITTLE TO NO
RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPORARY MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KSAV THROUGH ABOUT
13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND
KSAV THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY AT
KCHS...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPACT HOWEVER...GUSTING AROUND 30 KT...ESPECIALLY AT
KSAV. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED SUN-WED.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE SURFACE PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT THIS MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF STREAM OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT
POSSIBLE. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT OR LESS AND GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. THEN...A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE GEORGIA WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT BEFORE GALE
WATCHES/WARNINGS TAKE EFFECT...SO JUST INDICATE THE INCREASING
TREND IN THE FORECAST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS SATURDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY INTO
THE HARBOR AS WELL. GALES ARE EXPECTED BEYOND 20 NM AND ARE LIKELY
WITHIN THE NEARSHORE WATERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD
ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PUSH TIDES
LOWER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO
DO SO BEYOND 20 NM. NO ISSUES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED ALTHOUGH
SEAS WILL BE BUILDING BACK UP LATER IN THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT EAST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS IS WHERE FUEL MOISTURES APPEAR TO BE
LOWEST GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
/25 PERCENT/ BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE AIR MASS IS A BIT WARMER
AND/OR DRIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. CONDITIONS COULD BE A BIT
DRIER SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. IN ANY
EVENT...LAND MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE
LATEST FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT NOV 1...
KCHS 56 /1993/...
KSAV 52 /1925/...
KCXM 52 /1925/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR AMZ330-350-352-354.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KFFC 310908
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
508 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A LOT GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AND POSSIBLY OUR FIRST
ENCOUNTER WITH WINTERY PRECIPITATION. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
AN UNSEASONABLY POTENT UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIG
SOUTHWARD AND CUTOFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOWING MOISTURE CLIPPING NE GA BEGINNING TONIGHT AS
THIS NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS. BASED ON LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
PROGGED OMEGA...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN ACROSS NORTH GA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIP FRIDAY EVENING
AS THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR THE DRY SLOT TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE
STATE BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SAT. THE BACK SIDE MOISTURE BEGINS TO WRAP
AROUND THE EXITING LOW CENTER EARLY PUSHING INTO NE GA BETWEEN
06Z-12Z SAT. AS THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN A COLD AIRMASS IS
ALSO BEING ADVECTED SOUTHWARD AND COULD SEE TEMPS DIP BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. WITH THE COLD AIRMASS
AND MOISTURE OVER NORTH GA WE MAY ALE SEE OUR FIRST SNOW FALL OF THE
SEASON AS WELL. HAVE PUT IN A MENTION OF SNOW FOR NE GA BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS. THERMAL PROFILES NEAR
BRASSTOWN BALD ARE DEFINITELY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND SHOW SOME
DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINLY AFTER 03-06Z SATURDAY. FORECAST
850MB TEMPS EVEN GET AS LOW AS -8 C BASED ON THE GFS FOR 12Z
SATURDAY. AMOUNTS ARE NOT VERY CLEAR THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS POINT AT GENERALLY IN THE 0.20-0.50 INCH RANGE FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE TEMPS...THE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY STICK TO
GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES...THOUGH MAY STRUGGLE TO STICK TO
ROADWAYS GIVEN SOME HIGHER SOIL TEMPS. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH GOOD VORTICITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LINGERING FLURRIES EVEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHEAST AS WELL.
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG SATURDAY AS WELL AND WILL MOST
LIKELY REACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS.



01


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AND SATURDAY NIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 20S IN
THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK
WITH SOME TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD BE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF THIS NEXT FRONT...HOWEVER LOW POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.



41


&&



AVIATION...

06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD BUT THINGS WILL CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD BUT WINDS SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 6KT OR LESS BUT WILL SEE SPEEDS INCREASE TO
12-15KT GUSTING TO 20KT BY 18-19Z. WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AND SHOULD SEE 20KT GUSTING TO 30KT BY 08-10Z. CLOUDS ALSO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS 8000FT TO 12000FT EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS LOWER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BKN025 EXPECTED
BY 01Z AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE ATL AREA TAF SITES.
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT A BIT THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH BKN035 EXPECTED
BY SUNRISE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND WIND SPEEDS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VSBYS...AND PRECIP.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          67  37  53  35 /  10  30  20   0
ATLANTA         66  35  51  36 /  10  10   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     57  30  44  29 /  40  40  40   0
CARTERSVILLE    64  35  50  33 /  20  20  10   0
COLUMBUS        71  39  56  39 /   5   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     62  36  49  35 /  30  30  20   0
MACON           71  39  56  37 /   5   5   5   0
ROME            64  34  50  34 /  30  30  10   0
PEACHTREE CITY  67  36  53  35 /  10  10   5   0
VIDALIA         74  40  56  40 /   5   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...
GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01






000
FXUS62 KFFC 310832
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
432 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A LOT GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AND POSSIBLY OUR FIRST
ENCOUNTER WITH WINTERY PRECIPITATION. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
AN UNSEASONABLY POTENT UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIG
SOUTHWARD AND CUTOFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOWING MOISTURE CLIPPING NE GA BEGINNING TONIGHT AS
THIS NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS. BASED ON LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
PROGGED OMEGA...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN ACROSS NORTH GA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIP FRIDAY EVENING
AS THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR THE DRY SLOT TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE
STATE BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SAT. THE BACK SIDE MOISTURE BEGINS TO WRAP
AROUND THE EXITING LOW CENTER EARLY PUSHING INTO NE GA BETWEEN
06Z-12Z SAT. AS THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN A COLD AIRMASS IS
ALSO BEING ADVECTED SOUTHWARD AND COULD SEE TEMPS DIP BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. WITH THE COLD AIRMASS
AND MOISTURE OVER NORTH GA WE MAY ALE SEE OUR FIRST SNOW FALL OF THE
SEASON AS WELL. HAVE PUT IN A MENTION OF SNOW FOR NE GA BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS. THERMAL PROFILES NEAR
BRASSTOWN BALD ARE DEFINITELY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND SHOW SOME
DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINLY AFTER 03-06Z SATURDAY. FORECAST
850MB TEMPS EVEN GET AS LOW AS -8 C BASED ON THE GFS FOR 12Z
SATURDAY. AMOUNTS ARE NOT VERY CLEAR THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS POINT AT GENERALLY IN THE 0.20-0.50 INCH RANGE FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE TEMPS...THE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY STICK TO
GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES...THOUGH MAY STRUGGLE TO STICK TO
ROADWAYS GIVEN SOME HIGHER SOIL TEMPS. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH GOOD VORTICITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LINGERING FLURRIES EVEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHEAST AS WELL.
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG SATURDAY AS WELL AND WILL MOST
LIKELY REACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS.


01


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AND SATURDAY NIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 20S IN
THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK
WITH SOME TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD BE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF THIS NEXT FRONT...HOWEVER LOW POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.



41


&&


AVIATION...

06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD BUT THINGS WILL CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD BUT WINDS SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 6KT OR LESS BUT WILL SEE SPEEDS INCREASE TO
12-15KT GUSTING TO 20KT BY 18-19Z. WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AND SHOULD SEE 20KT GUSTING TO 30KT BY 08-10Z. CLOUDS ALSO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS 8000FT TO 12000FT EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS LOWER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BKN025 EXPECTED
BY 01Z AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE ATL AREA TAF SITES.
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT A BIT THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH BKN035 EXPECTED
BY SUNRISE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND WIND SPEEDS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS...VSBYS...AND PRECIP.

01



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          67  37  53  35 /  10  30  20   0
ATLANTA         66  35  51  36 /  10  10   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     57  30  44  29 /  40  40  40   0
CARTERSVILLE    64  35  50  33 /  20  20  10   0
COLUMBUS        71  39  56  39 /   5   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     62  36  49  35 /  30  30  20   0
MACON           71  39  56  37 /   5   5   5   0
ROME            64  34  50  34 /  30  30  10   0
PEACHTREE CITY  67  36  53  35 /  10  10   5   0
VIDALIA         74  40  56  40 /   5   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...
PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01






000
FXUS62 KCAE 310813
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
413 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST
ALONG WITH THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FIRST OF ALL...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THE
EVOLUTION OF THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
OVER THE WEEKEND. MORNING WV LOOP ALREADY INDICATING THE SEVERAL
S/W THAT WILL DEEPEN THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST/ROCKIES. THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN BASICALLY DRY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE
INDICATED THAT LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN MIDLANDS...A FEW HOURS EARLIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN/NORTHERN MIDLANDS BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS AND FORECASTED
MID/UPPER 60S NORTHWEST/NORTH TO LOWER 70S CSRA/SRN MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD AS A DEEP 535 TO 538 DECAMETER CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVES
SOUTHWARD FROM MIDWEST/OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPSTATE/UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN CONTINUING EASTWARD ACROSS
SC TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

MOISTURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE STRONG
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. HAVE GRADUALLY
INCREASED POPS FROM THE EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS INCREASING TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH A
GRADUAL TAPER IN POPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SIGNIFICANT
COLD POOL...WITH H5 TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM -23 DEGREES C THIS
EVENING TO -26 TO -28 DEGREES C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL ADD IN CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SHOWERS. HAVE ALSO DECIDED
TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FROM MIDDAY
SATURDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE3D TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF FROZEN
PRECIPITATION EARLY/MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
FORM OF GRAUPEL. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S...SOME
OF THIS MAY MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS HAS OCCURRED IN
SIMILAR PAST EVENTS. HOWEVER...EXPECT RAIN TO BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE EVENT.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER...NEARLY
15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH
50 DEGREES IN THE MIDLANDS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO MID 50S IN THE CSRA. THE
OTHER FACTOR DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING SURFACE
GRADIENT AND THE 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...AT 3K TO 4K FT...MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CWA ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE SATURDAY EVENING WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN RATHER BREEZY ACROSS THE LAKES
FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL GO AHEAD IN
COORDINATION WITH CHS AND ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
PERIOD MENTIONED ABOVE. SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY WITH COLD DRY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL PREVENT STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING BY KEEPING BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND LOW
TEMPS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND
LOCAL NUMBERS.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT
STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. SUNDAY
NIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE BEST NIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWAT
VALUES AROUND 0.20...CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
TREND DOWNWARD FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THIS AND THE ABOVE CONDITIONS HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT MUCH OF
THE AREA TO HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S WITH SOME MIDDLE
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
LIKE CEDAR CREEK...PELION...SALUDA...JOHNSTON AND MCCORMICK COULD
FALL BELOW FREEZING. SOME OF THE NUMBERS FOR BUSH FIELD TAKE THE
TEMPERATURE DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S...QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND
SEASONABLY COLD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.

SOME THOUGHTS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...AT A MINIMUM WILL
LIKELY NEED A FROST ADVISORY. IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE DOWNWARD
TREND COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT DIFFERENCES INCREASE FOR THE WED/THU TIME FRAME.

A 1030MB SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
OHIO/MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED ALONG
WITH SOME AREAS OF FREEZING/BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. FULL
SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT STILL REMAINING WELL
BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY
WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MUCH WARMER MIN
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AND LESS CONFIDENT BY
MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE
REGION...DRIVEN BY NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH THE FRONTAL
POSITION MID WEEK AND PUSH IT ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME
THURSDAY...BUT HAS LESS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
DEPICTS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...INFUSED WITH
ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TD 21.  WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU WITH APPROACHING
FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TODAY
WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. BREEZY TO
POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.

&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 310537
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
135 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ALONG WITH
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS MAY OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 40 TO 45 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD AS A DEEP 535 DECAMETER CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL CANADA...ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY.

THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE BUT
INCREASING MOISTURE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THE UPPER 60S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO
AROUND 70 OR LOWER 70S IN THE CSRA.

THE APPROACHING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WHICH WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.  THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES
OVER THE REGION.  POPS CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION
WITH A GRADIENT TO LOWER POPS TO THE SOUTH. THE SIGNIFICANT COLD
POOL ALOFT IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT EXPECT THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE TOO
WARM TO SEE ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN AT THE SURFACE.

ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -26C AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -3C TO -5C
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GRAUPEL MIXING IN WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER...NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 50S IN THE MIDLANDS! MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO MID 50S IN THE
CSRA. WINDS COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS AT
850MB...ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP UPPER LOW CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.  A LAKE WIND ADVISORY CERTAINLY WILL BE NECESSARY
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD
ADVECTION AND RELATIVE WARM WATER TEMPS OF AREA LAKES.  SUSTAINED
WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY WITH COLD DRY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND.  A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL PREVENT STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING BY KEEPING BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY THE COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 30S.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT
STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. SUNDAY
NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE BEST NIGHT FOR A POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD FROST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOCAL FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND OUTLYING AREAS.  IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWAT
VALUES AROUND 0.20...CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS LIKE
CEDAR CREEK...PELION AND CHERAW COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S POSSIBLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT DIFFERENCES INCREASE FOR THE WED/THU TIME FRAME.

A 1032MB SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
OHIO/MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST POSSIBLE...AND SOME
POSSIBLE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND OUTLYING
AREAS.  FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT STILL
REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.  THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.  NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MUCH WARMER MIN
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AND LESS CONFIDENT BY
MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE
REGION...DRIVEN BY NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH THE FRONTAL
POSITION MID WEEK AND PUSH IT ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME
THURSDAY...BUT HAS LESS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
DEPICTS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...INFUSED WITH
ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TD 21.  WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU WITH APPROACHING
FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB THROUGH 13Z. COULD SEE PATCHY STRATO
CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 5000 FEET THIS MORNING AT
AGS/DNL/OGB. LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. STILL EXPECT VFR
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. BREEZY TO
POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 310535
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
135 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ALONG WITH
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS MAY OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL LIGHT TO
CALM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 40 TO 45 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD AS A DEEP 535 DECAMETER CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL CANADA...ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY.

THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE BUT
INCREASING MOISTURE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THE UPPER 60S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO
AROUND 70 OR LOWER 70S IN THE CSRA.

THE APPROACHING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WHICH WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.  THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES
OVER THE REGION.  POPS CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION
WITH A GRADIENT TO LOWER POPS TO THE SOUTH. THE SIGNIFICANT COLD
POOL ALOFT IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT EXPECT THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE TOO
WARM TO SEE ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN AT THE SURFACE.

ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -26C AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -3C TO -5C
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GRAUPEL MIXING IN WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER...NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 50S IN THE MIDLANDS! MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO MID 50S IN THE
CSRA. WINDS COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS AT
850MB...ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP UPPER LOW CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.  A LAKE WIND ADVISORY CERTAINLY WILL BE NECESSARY
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD
ADVECTION AND RELATIVE WARM WATER TEMPS OF AREA LAKES.  SUSTAINED
WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY WITH COLD DRY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND.  A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL PREVENT STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING BY KEEPING BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY THE COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 30S.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT
STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. SUNDAY
NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE BEST NIGHT FOR A POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD FROST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOCAL FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND OUTLYING AREAS.  IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWAT
VALUES AROUND 0.20...CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS LIKE
CEDAR CREEK...PELION AND CHERAW COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S POSSIBLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT DIFFERENCES INCREASE FOR THE WED/THU TIME FRAME.

A 1032MB SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
OHIO/MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST POSSIBLE...AND SOME
POSSIBLE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND OUTLYING
AREAS.  FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT STILL
REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.  THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.  NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MUCH WARMER MIN
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AND LESS CONFIDENT BY
MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE
REGION...DRIVEN BY NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH THE FRONTAL
POSITION MID WEEK AND PUSH IT ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME
THURSDAY...BUT HAS LESS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
DEPICTS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...INFUSED WITH
ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TD 21.  WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU WITH APPROACHING
FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB THROUGH 113Z. COULD SEE PATCHY STRATO
CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 5000 FEET THIS MORNING AT
AGS/DNL/OGB. LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. STILL EXPECT VFR
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. BREEZY TO
POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 310529
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
129 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUITE A CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WITH MORE
TYPICAL LATE OCTOBER WEATHER NOW IN PLACE.

A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS MOVING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE SE COAST AND ITS RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION
WELL OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS PROMINENT FEATURE WILL
ALSO TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STALLED OUT
FRONT NEAR AND EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. WITH A GENERAL STEERING
FLOW TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST/NE AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE SHORT
WAVE INTO THE ATLANTIC...THE RISK FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO REMAIN
IN THE OCEAN AND NOT OVER LAND AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED A RAIN-FREE
FORECAST OVER ALL LAND ZONES.

CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO DISPLAY A NOTABLE GRADIENT...RANGING FROM
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR INLAND TO PARTLY OR OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES. A LARGE TEMP SPREAD WILL OCCUR AS LOWS
DROP TO 45-50 ACROSS THE INLAND COUNTIES /COOLEST NW TIER/ TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S OVER THE COASTAL ZONES /EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S
ON THE BEACHES/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN 1/3 OF THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE
OF THE LARGER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECT MOST OF FRIDAY TO BE DRY BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...BUT CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE AREA. IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD BEFORE THE BIG
COOL DOWN...WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD...REACHING JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. MOST OF THE MOISTURE SKIRTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONG POLAR FRONT WILL BE JUST
REACHING THE COAST BY SUNRISE. THUS...LOWS WILL BE COOLER...BUT NOT
AS COLD AS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS...IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY...A VERY COOL AND BLUSTERY DAY IS EXPECTED. THE STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS
WHERE THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESIDE. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA UNDER THE
UPPER LOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR SOME FROZEN
PRECIP/GRAUPEL...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED...AND OVERALL LIQUID
QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY 0.2 INCHES OR LESS. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 50S...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THEY HELD AROUND 50 IF THE CLOUDS ARE THICK ENOUGH WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION. WINDS WILL BE VERY BREEZY...WITH 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED AND
GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH. SATURDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DROP OFF. STILL EXPECT SOME
LIGHT WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH MOST OF NIGHT...BUT WILL DROP TO VERY
LIGHT WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD...IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 40S COAST. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST WELL
INLAND ACROSS WIND PROTECTED AREAS.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS RIGHT OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. STILL EXPECT
COOL MAX TEMPERATURES...ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IS NEARLY PERFECTLY
POSITIONED OVER THE REGION FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S MOST INLAND AREAS. RIGHT
NOW...CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD FROST SEEM TO BE INCREASING GIVEN
SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOWN BY GUIDANCE TO BE 30 TO 32 DEGS.

LAKE WINDS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT
AND GUSTS AROUND 30. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH WAVES WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING.  A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED WITH LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...A STRONG RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND EXPAND OVER
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
MID-WEEK...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY.

OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE
WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH/ONSHORE FLOW AND THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. PATCHY FROST
COULD OCCUR INLAND FROM THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN WELL SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL.
THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
06Z SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR KCHS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH WEST-
NORTHWEST SUSTAINED 20 TO 25 KT AND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A STALLED OUT FRONT ALIGNED NORTH/NE TO SOUTH/SW AND OUT
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...AWAITING
FOR A MID LEVEL IMPULSE/S ENERGY TO SPARK A SURFACE LOW ABOUT 100
MILES OFF THE SC COAST LATE. THIS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN COOL
ADVECTION...PLUS A PACKING OF THE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
HIGHER WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH TIME. WE/LL START THE NIGHT WITH
NORTH/NE WINDS OF 12-17 KT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND 5-10 KT IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR...THEN SLIGHT BACKING WILL TRANSPIRE OVERNIGHT
AS SPEEDS CLIMB UPWARDS TO 13-20 KT IN THE OCEAN LATE AND UP NEAR
10-12 KT IN THE HARBOR. SEAS WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT AT 2-3
FT...BUILDING ABOUT A FOOT OR SO LATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS FRIDAY BUT
CONDITIONS WILL GO DOWNHILL FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO
GALE CONDITIONS BY VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXACT TIMING OF THE POTENTIAL GALE CONDITIONS A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT THINK BY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY MOST
MARINE AREAS WILL BE EXPERIENCING GALE/NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH WIND GUSTS. THUS...HAVE RAISED A GALE
WATCH FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
THE HARBOR FOR NOW...BUT MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
CONDITIONS THERE TOO. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...AND SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS FALL
BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS BY LATER SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4
FT OR LESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT NOV 1...
KCHS 56 /1993/...
KSAV 52 /1925/...
KCXM 52 /1925/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ330.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ350-352-354-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 310156
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
956 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
QUITE A CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WITH MORE
TYPICAL LATE OCTOBER WEATHER NOW IN PLACE.

A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE STATES AND NE GULF OF MEXICO AND ITS
RESPONSIBLE FOR A FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS PROMINENT FEATURE WILL ALSO TRIGGER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT NEAR AND
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. 3 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGES AND SURFACE
ANALYSIS REVEAL THAT THE LOW PRESSURE IS STARTING TO FORM OUT NEAR
32N AND 77W. WITH A GENERAL STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE EAST OR
EAST/NE AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE SHORT WAVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SE GA AND BEYOND 2 OR 3 AM IN SC...THE RISK
FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE OCEAN AND NOT OVER LAND.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SHARP DELINEATION BETWEEN WHERE IT DOES
RAIN AND WHERE IT DOESN/T...BUT WE HAVE MAINTAINED A RAINFREE
FORECAST OVER ALL LAND ZONES.

CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO DISPLAY A NOTABLE GRADIENT...RANGING FROM
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR INLAND TO PARTLY OR OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES. A LARGE TEMP SPREAD WILL OCCUR AS LOWS
DROP TO 45-50 ACROSS THE INLAND COUNTIES /COOLEST NW TIER/ TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S OVER THE COASTAL ZONES /EVEN A FEW UPPER 50SD
ON THE BEACHES/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN 1/3 OF THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE
OF THE LARGER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECT MOST OF FRIDAY TO BE DRY BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...BUT CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE AREA. IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD BEFORE THE BIG
COOL DOWN...WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD...REACHING JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. MOST OF THE MOISTURE SKIRTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONG POLAR FRONT WILL BE JUST
REACHING THE COAST BY SUNRISE. THUS...LOWS WILL BE COOLER...BUT NOT
AS COLD AS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS...IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY...A VERY COOL AND BLUSTERY DAY IS EXPECTED. THE STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS
WHERE THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESIDE. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA UNDER THE
UPPER LOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR SOME FROZEN
PRECIP/GRAUPEL...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED...AND OVERALL LIQUID
QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY 0.2 INCHES OR LESS. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 50S...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THEY HELD AROUND 50 IF THE CLOUDS ARE THICK ENOUGH WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION. WINDS WILL BE VERY BREEZY...WITH 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED AND
GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH. SATURDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DROP OFF. STILL EXPECT SOME
LIGHT WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH MOST OF NIGHT...BUT WILL DROP TO VERY
LIGHT WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD...IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 40S COAST. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST WELL
INLAND ACROSS WIND PROTECTED AREAS.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS RIGHT OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. STILL EXPECT
COOL MAX TEMPERATURES...ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IS NEARLY PERFECTLY
POSITIONED OVER THE REGION FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S MOST INLAND AREAS. RIGHT
NOW...CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD FROST SEEM TO BE INCREASING GIVEN
SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOWN BY GUIDANCE TO BE 30 TO 32 DEGS.

LAKE WINDS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT
AND GUSTS AROUND 30. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH WAVES WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING.  A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED WITH LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...A STRONG RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND EXPAND OVER
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
MID-WEEK...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY.

OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE
WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH/ONSHORE FLOW AND THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. PATCHY FROST
COULD OCCUR INLAND FROM THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN WELL SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL.
THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVECT INTO OR FORM OVER THE
TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC. FOR NOW THOUGH WE
ARE CONTINUING WITH A VFR FORECAST THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY WITH NO
CLEAR INDICATORS OF HOW FAR WEST THESE LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE FROM
OFF THE OCEAN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR KCHS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH WEST- NORTHWEST SUSTAINED 20 TO 25 KT
AND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A STALLED OUT FRONT ALIGNED NORTH/NE TO SOUTH/SW AND OUT
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...AWAITING
FOR A MID LEVEL IMPULSE/S ENERGY TO SPARK A SURFACE LOW ABOUT 100
MILES OFF THE SC COAST LATE. THIS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN COOL
ADVECTION...PLUS A PACKING OF THE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
HIGHER WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH TIME. WE/LL START THE NIGHT WITH
NORTH/NE WINDS OF 12-17 KT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND 5-10 KT IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR...THEN SLIGHT BACKING WILL TRANSPIRE OVERNIGHT
AS SPEEDS CLIMB UPWARDS TO 13-20 KT IN THE OCEAN LATE AND UP NEAR
10-12 KT IN THE HARBOR. SEAS WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT AT 2-3
FT...BUILDING ABOUT A FOOT OR SO AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL...WITH EVEN A FEW T-STORMS OUT
NEAR THE GULF STREAM WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS FRIDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL
GO DOWNHILL FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALE CONDITIONS
BY VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXACT TIMING
OF THE POTENTIAL GALE CONDITIONS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN RIGHT
NOW...BUT THINK BY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY MOST MARINE AREAS WILL
BE EXPERIENCING GALE/NEAR GALE CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH WIND
GUSTS. THUS...HAVE RAISED A GALE WATCH FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE
GONE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE HARBOR FOR NOW...BUT
MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS THERE TOO. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS FALL BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS BY
LATER SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT NOV 1...
KCHS 56 /1993/...
KSAV 52 /1925/...
KCXM 52 /1925/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ330.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR AMZ350-352-354-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KFFC 310118 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
918 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS REMAIN ON TRACK...NO UPDATES ARE
PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS HAS BEEN ADVECTING INTO THE CWA...THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH AN UNSEASONABLY POTENT UPPER
TROUGH PROGGED TO QUICKLY DIG SOUTHWARD AND CUTOFF ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN
SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH HAVE SOME
DISCREPANCIES IN EXTENT OF ENHANCED MOISTURE AND INTENSITY OF THE
LOW. BASED ON LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND PROGGED OMEGA...THERE
WILL BE CHANCES FIRST FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA...THEN LIKELY SEE A DRY SLOT WRAP IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE UPPER LOW BEFORE THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IN
THE COLD CORE BRINGS SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL MAINLY TO FAR NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THERMAL PROFILES NEAR BRASSTOWN
BALD ARE DEFINITELY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND SHOW SOME DECENT LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINLY AFTER 03-06Z SATURDAY. FORECAST 850MB TEMPS
EVEN GET AS LOW AS -8 C BASED ON THE GFS FOR 12Z SATURDAY. AMOUNTS
ARE NOT VERY CLEAR THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT AT
GENERALLY IN THE 0.20-0.50 INCH RANGE FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST. WPC
GUIDANCE WAS A BIT HIGHER AND HAD SOME VALUES OVER ONE INCH BUT
THINK THIS IS ON THE HIGH SIDE AND SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS FROM A QUARTER TO HALF INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF FANNIN...UNION... TOWNS...LUMPKIN...AND WHITE COUNTIES
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING IN THE 09-15Z PERIOD SATURDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE TEMPS MENTIONED BELOW...THE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
MAY STICK TO GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES...THOUGH MAY
STRUGGLE TO STICK TO ROADWAYS GIVEN SOME HIGHER SOIL TEMPS. STILL
SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH GOOD VORTICITY SO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING FLURRIES EVEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE NORTHEAST AS WELL. GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG SATURDAY
AS WELL AND MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS SO WILL ASSESS AS THE
PERIOD GETS CLOSER FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE.

FOR TEMPS...QUITE AN ABNORMALLY COLD AND BLUSTERY FORECAST ON TAP AS
GUIDANCE TRENDING EVEN A BIT COOLER THAN BEFORE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MANY AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE MID 30S
WITH LOW 30S TO MID 20S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HAVE THEREFORE
ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD BE TOO
HIGH FOR FROST CONCERNS. SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 50S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND EVEN THE 40S FOR THE NORTHEAST. WIND CHILL
VALUES LOOK TO EVEN BE IN THE 30S FOR THE NE MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DEFINITELY NOT YOUR TYPICAL START TO NOVEMBER.

BAKER

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM AND THUS ALL THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALLOW FOR
POTENTIALLY SOME OF THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON
SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE THIS...FORECAST DOES NOT BREAK ANY RECORD
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ON SUNDAY FOR HIGH TEMPS...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN
SATURDAY SO IT WILL NOT BE AS BLUSTERY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE BY LATE WEEK SO
CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHEN PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN.

11

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z FRIDAY
AROUND 8-12KFT...BECOMING BROKEN IN COVERAGE BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 00Z WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH 14Z...
INCREASING TO 8-12KT W/ GUSTS 17-20KT AFTER 18Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          41  67  37  50 /   0  20  20  10
ATLANTA         45  66  36  51 /   5  20  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     36  58  31  45 /  10  30  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    39  65  35  51 /   5  20  20  10
COLUMBUS        45  71  39  56 /   0   5  10  10
GAINESVILLE     45  61  36  49 /   5  20  20  20
MACON           41  70  38  58 /   0   5  10  10
ROME            40  65  35  52 /  10  20  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  39  68  36  53 /   5  10  10  10
VIDALIA         50  72  42  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...20






000
FXUS62 KFFC 302322 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
720 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS HAS BEEN ADVECTING INTO THE CWA...THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH AN UNSEASONABLY POTENT UPPER
TROUGH PROGGED TO QUICKLY DIG SOUTHWARD AND CUTOFF ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN
SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH HAVE SOME
DISCREPANCIES IN EXTENT OF ENHANCED MOISTURE AND INTENSITY OF THE
LOW. BASED ON LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND PROGGED OMEGA...THERE
WILL BE CHANCES FIRST FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA...THEN LIKELY SEE A DRY SLOT WRAP IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE UPPER LOW BEFORE THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IN
THE COLD CORE BRINGS SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL MAINLY TO FAR NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THERMAL PROFILES NEAR BRASSTOWN
BALD ARE DEFINITELY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND SHOW SOME DECENT LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINLY AFTER 03-06Z SATURDAY. FORECAST 850MB TEMPS
EVEN GET AS LOW AS -8 C BASED ON THE GFS FOR 12Z SATURDAY. AMOUNTS
ARE NOT VERY CLEAR THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT AT
GENERALLY IN THE 0.20-0.50 INCH RANGE FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST. WPC
GUIDANCE WAS A BIT HIGHER AND HAD SOME VALUES OVER ONE INCH BUT
THINK THIS IS ON THE HIGH SIDE AND SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS FROM A QUARTER TO HALF INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF FANNIN...UNION... TOWNS...LUMPKIN...AND WHITE COUNTIES
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING IN THE 09-15Z PERIOD SATURDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE TEMPS MENTIONED BELOW...THE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
MAY STICK TO GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES...THOUGH MAY
STRUGGLE TO STICK TO ROADWAYS GIVEN SOME HIGHER SOIL TEMPS. STILL
SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH GOOD VORTICITY SO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING FLURRIES EVEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE NORTHEAST AS WELL. GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG SATURDAY
AS WELL AND MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS SO WILL ASSESS AS THE
PERIOD GETS CLOSER FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE.

FOR TEMPS...QUITE AN ABNORMALLY COLD AND BLUSTERY FORECAST ON TAP AS
GUIDANCE TRENDING EVEN A BIT COOLER THAN BEFORE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MANY AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE MID 30S
WITH LOW 30S TO MID 20S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HAVE THEREFORE
ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD BE TOO
HIGH FOR FROST CONCERNS. SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 50S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND EVEN THE 40S FOR THE NORTHEAST. WIND CHILL
VALUES LOOK TO EVEN BE IN THE 30S FOR THE NE MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DEFINITELY NOT YOUR TYPICAL START TO NOVEMBER.

BAKER


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM AND THUS ALL THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALLOW FOR
POTENTIALLY SOME OF THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON
SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE THIS...FORECAST DOES NOT BREAK ANY RECORD
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ON SUNDAY FOR HIGH TEMPS...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN
SATURDAY SO IT WILL NOT BE AS BLUSTERY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE BY LATE WEEK SO
CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHEN PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN.

11


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z FRIDAY
AROUND 8-12KFT...BECOMING BROKEN IN COVERAGE BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 00Z WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH 14Z...
INCREASING TO 8-12KT W/ GUSTS 17-20KT AFTER 18Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          41  67  37  50 /   0  20  20  10
ATLANTA         45  66  36  51 /   5  20  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     36  58  31  45 /  10  30  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    39  65  35  51 /   5  20  20  10
COLUMBUS        45  71  39  56 /   0   5  10  10
GAINESVILLE     45  61  36  49 /   5  20  20  20
MACON           41  70  38  58 /   0   5  10  10
ROME            40  65  35  52 /  10  20  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  39  68  36  53 /   5  10  10  10
VIDALIA         50  72  42  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...BAKER









000
FXUS62 KCHS 302317
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
717 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
QUITE A CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WITH MORE
TYPICAL LATE OCTOBER WEATHER NOW IN PLACE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE SE COAST WILL OSCILLATE AND
EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AS A FAIRLY PROMINENT SHORT WAVE
ALOFT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST AND CAUSES A SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR OR EAST OF THE GULF STREAM WATERS. THE BEST
FORCING AND BETTER HEIGHT FALLS LOOK TO OCCUR IN THE ATLANTIC...SO
FOR NOW WE HAVE MAINTAINED A RAIN-FREE FORECAST OVER LAND.
HOWEVER...GIVEN ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 295K SURFACE AND SOME
BACKING OF THE TRAJECTORIES TO THE SW IN THE MID LEVELS WE
CERTAINLY NEED TO MAINTAIN A SHARP EYE ON RADAR TRENDS AS THERE
WILL BE TIGHT GRADIENT FROM WHERE IT RAINS TO WHERE IT DOESN/T.
AND WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER AT LEAST SMALL POPS OVER THE COASTAL
ZONES IN FUTURE UPDATES.

OTHER GRADIENTS THAT WILL BE MOST NOTABLE INCLUDE THE SKY COVER
AND TEMP GRIDS. SKIES WILL RANGE FROM CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR FAR
INLAND...PARTLY CLOUDY CENTRAL ZONES...AND PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY
EXTREME EAST. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILARLY DELINEATED...RANGING FROM
MID AND UPPER 40S WELL INLAND TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN 1/3 OF THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE
OF THE LARGER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECT MOST OF FRIDAY TO BE DRY BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...BUT CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE AREA. IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD BEFORE THE BIG
COOL DOWN...WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD...REACHING JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. MOST OF THE MOISTURE SKIRTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONG POLAR FRONT WILL BE JUST
REACHING THE COAST BY SUNRISE. THUS...LOWS WILL BE COOLER...BUT NOT
AS COLD AS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS...IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY...A VERY COOL AND BLUSTERY DAY IS EXPECTED. THE STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS
WHERE THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESIDE. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA UNDER THE
UPPER LOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR SOME FROZEN
PRECIP/GRAUPEL...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED...AND OVERALL LIQUID
QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY 0.2 INCHES OR LESS. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 50S...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THEY HELD AROUND 50 IF THE CLOUDS ARE THICK ENOUGH WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION. WINDS WILL BE VERY BREEZY...WITH 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED AND
GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH. SATURDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DROP OFF. STILL EXPECT SOME
LIGHT WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH MOST OF NIGHT...BUT WILL DROP TO VERY
LIGHT WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD...IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 40S COAST. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST WELL
INLAND ACROSS WIND PROTECTED AREAS.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS RIGHT OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. STILL EXPECT
COOL MAX TEMPERATURES...ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IS NEARLY PERFECTLY
POSITIONED OVER THE REGION FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S MOST INLAND AREAS. RIGHT
NOW...CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD FROST SEEM TO BE INCREASING GIVEN
SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOWN BY GUIDANCE TO BE 30 TO 32 DEGS.

LAKE WINDS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT
AND GUSTS AROUND 30. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH WAVES WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING.  A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED WITH LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...A STRONG RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND EXPAND OVER
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
MID-WEEK...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY.

OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE
WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH/ONSHORE FLOW AND THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. PATCHY FROST
COULD OCCUR INLAND FROM THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN WELL SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL.
THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVECT INTO OR FORM OVER THE
TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC. FOR NOW THOUGH WE
ARE CONTINUING WITH A VFR FORECAST THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY WITH NO
CLEAR INDICATORS OF HOW FAR WEST THESE LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE FROM
OFF THE OCEAN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR KCHS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH WEST- NORTHWEST SUSTAINED 20 TO 25 KT
AND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A STALLED OUT FRONT ALIGNED NORTH/NE TO SOUTH/SW AND OUT
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...AWAITING
FOR A MID LEVEL IMPULSE/S ENERGY TO SPARK A SURFACE LOW ABOUT 100
MILES OFF THE SC COAST LATE. THIS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN COOL
ADVECTION...PLUS A PACKING OF THE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
HIGHER WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH TIME. WE/LL START THE NIGHT WITH
NORTH/NE WINDS OF 10-17 KT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND 5-10 KT IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR...THEN SLIGHT BACKING WILL TRANSPIRE OVERNIGHT
AS SPEEDS CLIMB UPWARDS TO 13-20 KT IN THE OCEAN LATE AND UP NEAR
10-12 KT IN THE HARBOR. SEAS WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT AT 2-3
FT...BUILDING ABOUT A FOOT OR SO AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FORM DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH MAYBE SOME T-STORMS OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO HIGHLIGHTS FRIDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL GO DOWNHILL FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALE CONDITIONS BY VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXACT TIMING OF THE POTENTIAL GALE
CONDITIONS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT THINK BY AFTER SUNRISE
SATURDAY MOST MARINE AREAS WILL BE EXPERIENCING GALE/NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH WIND GUSTS. THUS...HAVE RAISED A GALE
WATCH FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
THE HARBOR FOR NOW...BUT MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
CONDITIONS THERE TOO. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...AND SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS FALL
BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS BY LATER SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR
LESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT NOV 1...
KCHS 56 /1993/...
KSAV 52 /1925/...
KCXM 52 /1925/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ330.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR AMZ350-352-354-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 302156
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
556 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ALONG WITH
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS MAY OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL LIGHT TO
CALM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 40 TO 45 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD AS A DEEP 535 DECAMETER CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL CANADA...ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY.

THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE BUT
INCREASING MOISTURE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THE UPPER 60S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO
AROUND 70 OR LOWER 70S IN THE CSRA.

THE APPROACHING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WHICH WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.  THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES
OVER THE REGION.  POPS CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION
WITH A GRADIENT TO LOWER POPS TO THE SOUTH. THE SIGNIFICANT COLD
POOL ALOFT IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT EXPECT THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE TOO
WARM TO SEE ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN AT THE SURFACE.

ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -26C AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -3C TO -5C
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GRAUPEL MIXING IN WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER...NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 50S IN THE MIDLANDS! MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO MID 50S IN THE
CSRA. WINDS COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS AT
850MB...ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP UPPER LOW CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.  A LAKE WIND ADVISORY CERTAINLY WILL BE NECESSARY
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD
ADVECTION AND RELATIVE WARM WATER TEMPS OF AREA LAKES.  SUSTAINED
WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY WITH COLD DRY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND.  A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL PREVENT STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING BY KEEPING BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY THE COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 30S.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT
STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. SUNDAY
NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE BEST NIGHT FOR A POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD FROST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOCAL FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND OUTLYING AREAS.  IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWAT
VALUES AROUND 0.20...CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS LIKE
CEDAR CREEK...PELION AND CHERAW COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S POSSIBLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT DIFFERENCES INCREASE FOR THE WED/THU TIME FRAME.

A 1032MB SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
OHIO/MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST POSSIBLE...AND SOME
POSSIBLE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND OUTLYING
AREAS.  FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT STILL
REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.  THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.  NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MUCH WARMER MIN
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AND LESS CONFIDENT BY
MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE
REGION...DRIVEN BY NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH THE FRONTAL
POSITION MID WEEK AND PUSH IT ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME
THURSDAY...BUT HAS LESS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
DEPICTS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...INFUSED WITH
ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TD 21.  WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU WITH APPROACHING
FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FRONT OFFSHORE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NE WINDS OVER MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) CURRENTLY. DEWPOINT GRADIENT EXISTS OVER THE FA
WITH LATE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS/CROSSOVER TEMPS NEAR 40 AT MOST
TERMINALS EXCEPT MID 40S OGB. IT APPEARS ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
POTENTIAL WOULD BE RESTRICTED TO THE FOG PRONE SITES OGB AND AGS.
MOST MODEL OUTPUT NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG...ALTHOUGH
LOCAL RADIATION FOG SCHEME INDICATES SOME FOG POTENTIAL ONLY AT OGB.
THOUGH RELATIVELY LIGHT SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...SOME QUESTION ABOUT THAT EXISTS AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE...AND
THAT MAY KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP UP
SOME WIND OVERNIGHT. ALSO...A PESKY BAND OF SCT TO BKN SCU WITH
BASES AROUND 050 MAY LINGER NEAR THE E/SE FA NEAR OGB. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MOST MODEL SUPPORT...WILL FOREGO ANY FOG
MENTION AT THIS TIME. TRENDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE WILL BE MONITORED
THIS EVENING FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THE FOG
PRONE SITES OGB AND AGS IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES IF/WHEN CONFIDENCE
WARRANTS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 302156
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
556 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ALONG WITH
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS MAY OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL LIGHT TO
CALM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 40 TO 45 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD AS A DEEP 535 DECAMETER CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL CANADA...ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY.

THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE BUT
INCREASING MOISTURE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THE UPPER 60S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO
AROUND 70 OR LOWER 70S IN THE CSRA.

THE APPROACHING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WHICH WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.  THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES
OVER THE REGION.  POPS CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION
WITH A GRADIENT TO LOWER POPS TO THE SOUTH. THE SIGNIFICANT COLD
POOL ALOFT IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT EXPECT THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE TOO
WARM TO SEE ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN AT THE SURFACE.

ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -26C AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -3C TO -5C
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GRAUPEL MIXING IN WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER...NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 50S IN THE MIDLANDS! MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO MID 50S IN THE
CSRA. WINDS COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS AT
850MB...ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP UPPER LOW CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.  A LAKE WIND ADVISORY CERTAINLY WILL BE NECESSARY
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD
ADVECTION AND RELATIVE WARM WATER TEMPS OF AREA LAKES.  SUSTAINED
WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY WITH COLD DRY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND.  A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL PREVENT STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING BY KEEPING BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY THE COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 30S.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT
STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. SUNDAY
NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE BEST NIGHT FOR A POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD FROST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOCAL FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND OUTLYING AREAS.  IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWAT
VALUES AROUND 0.20...CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS LIKE
CEDAR CREEK...PELION AND CHERAW COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S POSSIBLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT DIFFERENCES INCREASE FOR THE WED/THU TIME FRAME.

A 1032MB SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
OHIO/MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST POSSIBLE...AND SOME
POSSIBLE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND OUTLYING
AREAS.  FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT STILL
REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.  THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.  NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MUCH WARMER MIN
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AND LESS CONFIDENT BY
MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE
REGION...DRIVEN BY NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH THE FRONTAL
POSITION MID WEEK AND PUSH IT ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME
THURSDAY...BUT HAS LESS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
DEPICTS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...INFUSED WITH
ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TD 21.  WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU WITH APPROACHING
FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FRONT OFFSHORE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NE WINDS OVER MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) CURRENTLY. DEWPOINT GRADIENT EXISTS OVER THE FA
WITH LATE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS/CROSSOVER TEMPS NEAR 40 AT MOST
TERMINALS EXCEPT MID 40S OGB. IT APPEARS ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
POTENTIAL WOULD BE RESTRICTED TO THE FOG PRONE SITES OGB AND AGS.
MOST MODEL OUTPUT NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG...ALTHOUGH
LOCAL RADIATION FOG SCHEME INDICATES SOME FOG POTENTIAL ONLY AT OGB.
THOUGH RELATIVELY LIGHT SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...SOME QUESTION ABOUT THAT EXISTS AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE...AND
THAT MAY KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP UP
SOME WIND OVERNIGHT. ALSO...A PESKY BAND OF SCT TO BKN SCU WITH
BASES AROUND 050 MAY LINGER NEAR THE E/SE FA NEAR OGB. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MOST MODEL SUPPORT...WILL FOREGO ANY FOG
MENTION AT THIS TIME. TRENDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE WILL BE MONITORED
THIS EVENING FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THE FOG
PRONE SITES OGB AND AGS IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES IF/WHEN CONFIDENCE
WARRANTS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 302101
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
501 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN WEAKENING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE WEST AND A DEVELOPING WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL SWEEP TOWARD THE EAST COAST WITHIN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE
WAVE...WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED NOCTURNAL CLOUD COVER MAINLY ALONG
THE COASTLINE AND NEARSHORE WATERS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE MARINE ZONES CLOSEST TO THE FORCING
PROVIDED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY FROM THE MID 40S WELL INLAND WITHIN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER 50S COASTAL AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL BE HIGHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN 1/3 OF THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE
OF THE LARGER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECT MOST OF FRIDAY TO BE DRY BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...BUT CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE AREA. IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD BEFORE THE BIG
COOL DOWN...WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD...REACHING JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. MOST OF THE MOISTURE SKIRTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONG POLAR FRONT WILL BE JUST
REACHING THE COAST BY SUNRISE. THUS...LOWS WILL BE COOLER...BUT NOT
AS COLD AS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS...IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY...A VERY COOL AND BLUSTERY DAY IS EXPECTED. THE STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS
WHERE THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESIDE. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA UNDER THE
UPPER LOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR SOME FROZEN
PRECIP/GRAUPEL...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED...AND OVERALL LIQUID
QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY 0.2 INCHES OR LESS. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 50S...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THEY HELD AROUND 50 IF THE CLOUDS ARE THICK ENOUGH WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION. WINDS WILL BE VERY BREEZY...WITH 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED AND
GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH. SATURDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DROP OFF. STILL EXPECT SOME
LIGHT WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH MOST OF NIGHT...BUT WILL DROP TO VERY
LIGHT WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD...IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 40S COAST. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST WELL
INLAND ACROSS WIND PROTECTED AREAS.

SUNDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS RIGHT OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. STILL EXPECT
COOL MAX TEMPERATURES...ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IS NEARLY PERFECTLY
POSITIONED OVER THE REGION FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S MOST INLAND AREAS. RIGHT
NOW...CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD FROST SEEM TO BE INCREASING GIVEN
SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SHOWN BY GUIDANCE TO BE 30 TO 32 DEGS.

LAKE WINDS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT
AND GUSTS AROUND 30. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH WAVES WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING.  A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED WITH LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...A STRONG RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND EXPAND OVER
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
MID-WEEK...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY.

OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE
WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH/ONSHORE FLOW AND THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. PATCHY FROST
COULD OCCUR INLAND FROM THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN WELL SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL.
THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A STRATUS
DECK TOWARD THE KCHS TERMINAL BY MID AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP UNTIL 21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS IF
THE LOW CLOUDS CAN REACH THE AREA BEFORE SCATTERING INTO MORE
STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR
KCHS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...WITH
WEST-NORTHWEST SUSTAINED 20 TO 25 KT AND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT
POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FAR OFFSHORE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS WITHIN A GRADUALLY
TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION OVER FAIRLY WARM
ATLANTIC WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO HIGHLIGHTS FRIDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL GO DOWNHILL FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALE CONDITIONS BY VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXACT TIMING OF THE POTENTIAL GALE
CONDITIONS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT THINK BY AFTER SUNRISE
SATURDAY MOST MARINE AREAS WILL BE EXPERIENCING GALE/NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH WIND GUSTS. THUS...HAVE RAISED A GALE
WATCH FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
THE HARBOR FOR NOW...BUT MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
CONDITIONS THERE TOO. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...AND SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS FALL
BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS BY LATER SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR
LESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT NOV 1...
KCHS 56 /1993/...
KSAV 52 /1925/...
KCXM 52 /1925/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR AMZ350-352-354-370-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...WMS/RFM
MARINE...WMS/RFM
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KFFC 302001
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
401 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS HAS BEEN ADVECTING INTO THE CWA...THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH AN UNSEASONABLY POTENT UPPER
TROUGH PROGGED TO QUICKLY DIG SOUTHWARD AND CUTOFF ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN
SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH HAVE SOME
DISCREPANCIES IN EXTENT OF ENHANCED MOISTURE AND INTENSITY OF THE
LOW. BASED ON LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND PROGGED OMEGA...THERE
WILL BE CHANCES FIRST FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA...THEN LIKELY SEE A DRY SLOT WRAP IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE UPPER LOW BEFORE THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IN
THE COLD CORE BRINGS SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL MAINLY TO FAR NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THERMAL PROFILES NEAR BRASSTOWN
BALD ARE DEFINITELY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND SHOW SOME DECENT LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINLY AFTER 03-06Z SATURDAY. FORECAST 850MB TEMPS
EVEN GET AS LOW AS -8 C BASED ON THE GFS FOR 12Z SATURDAY. AMOUNTS
ARE NOT VERY CLEAR THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT AT
GENERALLY IN THE 0.20-0.50 INCH RANGE FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST. WPC
GUIDANCE WAS A BIT HIGHER AND HAD SOME VALUES OVER ONE INCH BUT
THINK THIS IS ON THE HIGH SIDE AND SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS FROM A QUARTER TO HALF INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF FANNIN...UNION... TOWNS...LUMPKIN...AND WHITE COUNTIES
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING IN THE 09-15Z PERIOD SATURDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE TEMPS MENTIONED BELOW...THE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
MAY STICK TO GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES...THOUGH MAY
STRUGGLE TO STICK TO ROADWAYS GIVEN SOME HIGHER SOIL TEMPS. STILL
SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH GOOD VORTICITY SO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING FLURRIES EVEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE NORTHEAST AS WELL. GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG SATURDAY
AS WELL AND MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS SO WILL ASSESS AS THE
PERIOD GETS CLOSER FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE.

FOR TEMPS...QUITE AN ABNORMALLY COLD AND BLUSTERY FORECAST ON TAP AS
GUIDANCE TRENDING EVEN A BIT COOLER THAN BEFORE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MANY AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE MID 30S
WITH LOW 30S TO MID 20S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HAVE THEREFORE
ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD BE TOO
HIGH FOR FROST CONCERNS. SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 50S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND EVEN THE 40S FOR THE NORTHEAST. WIND CHILL
VALUES LOOK TO EVEN BE IN THE 30S FOR THE NE MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DEFINITELY NOT YOUR TYPICAL START TO NOVEMBER.

BAKER


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM AND THUS ALL THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALLOW FOR
POTENTIALLY SOME OF THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON
SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE THIS...FORECAST DOES NOT BREAK ANY RECORD
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ON SUNDAY FOR HIGH TEMPS...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN
SATURDAY SO IT WILL NOT BE AS BLUSTERY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE BY LATE WEEK SO
CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHEN PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN.

11


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
SOME MID LEVEL SCT COVERAGE COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY IN
THE 8-12 KFT RANGE. INITIAL WINDS WAIVERING SOME BETWEEN NE AND NW
BUT SHOULD SWING TO NW BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH REST OF
PERIOD. MAGNITUDES GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT THEN ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NEAR 10 KTS
GUSTING 18 KTS BY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          41  67  37  50 /   0  20  20  10
ATLANTA         45  66  36  51 /   5  20  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     36  58  31  45 /  10  30  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    39  65  35  51 /   5  20  20  10
COLUMBUS        45  71  39  56 /   0   5  10  10
GAINESVILLE     45  61  36  49 /   5  20  20  20
MACON           41  70  38  58 /   0   5  10  10
ROME            40  65  35  52 /  10  20  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  39  68  36  53 /   5  10  10  10
VIDALIA         50  72  42  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KCAE 301845
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
245 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ALONG WITH
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS MAY OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL LIGHT TO
CALM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 40 TO 45 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD AS A DEEP 535 DECAMETER CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL CANADA...ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY.

THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE BUT
INCREASING MOISTURE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW.  TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THE UPPER 60S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO
AROUND 70 OR LOWER 70S IN THE CSRA.

THE APPROACHING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WHICH WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.  THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION MOVES
OVER THE REGION.  POPS CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION
WITH A GRADIENT TO LOWER POPS TO THE SOUTH. THE SIGNIFICANT COLD
POOL ALOFT IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT EXPECT THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE TOO
WARM TO SEE ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN AT THE SURFACE.

ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -26C AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -3C TO -5C
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GRAUPEL MIXING IN WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER...NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 50S IN THE MIDLANDS! MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO MID 50S IN THE
CSRA. WINDS COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS AT
850MB...ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP UPPER LOW CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.  A LAKE WIND ADVISORY CERTAINLY WILL BE NECESSARY
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD
ADVECTION AND RELATIVE WARM WATER TEMPS OF AREA LAKES.  SUSTAINED
WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY WITH COLD DRY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND.  A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL PREVENT STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING BY KEEPING BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY THE COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 30S.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT
STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. SUNDAY
NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE BEST NIGHT FOR A POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD FROST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOCAL FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND OUTLYING AREAS.  IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWAT
VALUES AROUND 0.20...CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS LIKE
CEDAR CREEK...PELION AND CHERAW COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S POSSIBLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT DIFFERENCES INCREASE FOR THE WED/THU TIME FRAME.

A 1032MB SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
OHIO/MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST POSSIBLE...AND SOME
POSSIBLE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND OUTLYING
AREAS.  FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT STILL
REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.  THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.  NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MUCH WARMER MIN
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AND LESS CONFIDENT BY
MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE
REGION...DRIVEN BY NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH THE FRONTAL
POSITION MID WEEK AND PUSH IT ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME
THURSDAY...BUT HAS LESS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
DEPICTS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...INFUSED WITH
ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TD 21.  WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED/THU WITH APPROACHING
FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 8-10 KTS...BECOMING LIGHT THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. BREEZY
TO POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SN
NEAR TERM...SN
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC





000
FXUS62 KFFC 301821
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
221 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014/

.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH DRY/COOL AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE
CWA BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SOME
SUB FREEZING TEMPS ARE A GOOD BET IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHEAST GA SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL BE LOOKING INTO FREEZE
WATCH POTENTIAL WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE. AS SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST IS STILL POSSIBLE...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY UNDER HALF AN INCH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

A DRY...COLD AIR MASS HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...NOW EXTENDING ALONG THE GEORGIA COASTLINE AND INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA. SHORT TERM LARGELY REMAINS UNEVENTFUL...WITH DEEP LAYER
COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES 10-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS BELOW NORMAL TREND CONTINUES
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY. EXPECT THIS REINFORCING FRONT
TO PRODUCE SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES THE AREA HAS SEEN SO FAR
THIS SEASON INTO THE WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME MOISTURE MOVING INTO FAR NORTH
GEORGIA AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES...AND SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS MOISTURE AND COLD TEMPERATURES
COULD RESULT IN POTENTIAL WINTER PRECIP IN THE FAR NORTH GEORGIA
MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING /SEE EXTENDED/.

THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MEANS THAT HALLOWEEN TRICK
OR TREATING WILL BE WINDY AND CHILLY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. BY 6PM FRIDAY...EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE TO FEEL LIKE TO BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO RIGHT AROUND 60...OR COLDER.

31

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

STRONG COLD CORE SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS EXPECTED MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA...NORTH OF ATLANTA TO ATHENS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS GO
BELOW FREEZING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL SUPPORT A MIX ON
RAIN/SNOW DURING THAT TIME FOR THE NORTHEAST. ACCUMULATION STILL
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH. SATURDAY SHOULD BE WINDY
WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS
THE STATE THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
SOME MID LEVEL SCT COVERAGE COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY IN
THE 8-12 KFT RANGE. INITIAL WINDS WAIVERING SOME BETWEEN NE AND NW
BUT SHOULD SWING TO NW BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH REST OF
PERIOD. MAGNITUDES GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT THEN ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NEAR 10 KTS
GUSTING 18 KTS BY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  42  67  38 /   0   0   5  10
ATLANTA         67  45  65  37 /   0   0   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     62  36  58  33 /   0   0  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    66  40  65  35 /   0   0  10  10
COLUMBUS        71  45  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     65  44  62  37 /   0   0  10  20
MACON           72  42  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            67  40  65  35 /   0   0  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  68  40  69  36 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         73  48  71  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31/BAKER
LONG TERM...41
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KCHS 301805
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
205 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFFSHORE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT...AND RAIN CHANCES OVER LAND AREAS ARE NEAR ZERO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE STRATUS DECK THAT LINGERED OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING TIME FRAME IS FINALLY
SCATTERING INTO MORE STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS BY 2 PM EDT...WHILE
ANOTHER SWATH OF PERSISTENT STRATUS TO THE NORTH IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING INTO THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY REGION. HAVE MADE
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER FORECAST TO INDICATE TEMPORARY
PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING THE PERSISTENT UPPER
TROUGH...EXPECT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE WATERS AND PORTIONS OF COASTAL
AREAS. FARTHER INLAND...MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S. ELSEWHERE...THE GREATER SKY COVER AND
SLIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN THE AMPLIFICATION OF A MID
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS BUT IT
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 OR IN THE LOWER 70S
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT RAPIDLY DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. WHILE
THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND CAUSE A POWERFUL COLD FRONT TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE APPEARS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE NEWLY FORMING SURFACE LOW TO ALLOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA
OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE DEVELOPING COLD POOL ALOFT...THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME GRAUPEL TO OCCUR BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DEEPER MIXING WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING LATE
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY.

SATURDAY...A 535 DECAMETER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS HIGHLY ANOMALOUS LOW AND VERY STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF -5C...WHICH IS 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL! NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL BE A
VERY COLD DAY FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A RECORD LOW
MAXIMUM AT KCHS...BUT SEE BELOW FOR OTHER RECORD INFORMATION. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR...WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KT DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW.
DEEP MIXING PROFILES WILL TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 35 MPH AT TIMES. THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR GRAUPEL TO OCCUR WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH THE CORE
OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT SHIFTING OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS BEGIN
TO PULL AWAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
TIGHT OVER THE REGION BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE BOMBING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP WINDS
COUPLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S FOR LOWS...WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LIKELY OCCURRING ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST GIVEN THE ADVECTIVE REGIME.

SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ONLY
MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 50S OR LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

LAKE WINDS...THE COMBINATION OF WARM LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES AND
VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IN WAKE OF A POWERFUL COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
ON LAKE MOULTRIE FOR MARINERS. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH WAVES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL
CERTAINLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...A STRONG RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND EXPAND OVER
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
MID-WEEK...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY.

OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE
WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH/ONSHORE FLOW AND THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. PATCHY FROST
COULD OCCUR INLAND FROM THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN WELL SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL.
THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK OVER THE KSAV TERMINAL FINALLY
BEGINS TO SCATTER INTO STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS BY 18Z...ANOTHER
AREA OF STRATUS IS GRADUALLY PROGRESSING FROM THE NORTH TOWARD
KCHS. THESE LOW CLOUDS APPEAR DRIVEN BY SWIRLS/EDDIES IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...ADDING DIFFICULTY TO DETERMINING THE TIMING AND
PERSISTENCE OF THEIR IMPACTS. PREFER TO INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AT BOTH TAF
SITES...WITH OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z
FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AT THE
TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
TOWARD INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10
TO 15 KT TODAY...POSSIBLY INCREASING ANOTHER 5 KT OR SO TONIGHT
WITH A TIGHTENING LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION OVER
FAIRLY WARM ATLANTIC WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...THEN A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...VERY
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND POTENT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
WILL RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GALE CONDITIONS LIKELY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT NOV 1...
KCHS 56 /1993/...
KSAV 52 /1925/...
KCXM 52 /1925/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...WMS/JAQ
MARINE...WMS/JAQ/JRL
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 301601
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1201 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ALONG WITH
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS MAY OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSRUE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL LIGHT TO
CALM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 40 TO 45 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TONIGHT. BUFKIT TIME
SECTIONS INDICATE CALM/LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS
NEARLY IDENTICAL AND WILL STAY NEAR CONSENSUS. THIS WILL PLACE
OVERNIGHT LOWS VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY IN THE LOW/MID 40S. 500MB
FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME HIGH AMPLIFIED LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL SET UP A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE ALONG THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO WESTERN CANADA...AND
SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/ALONG
THE EAST COAST. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
PAST RUNS INCLUDING THE 00Z RUN OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED MUCH STRONGER WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND CLOSING OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS BY
SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE SOLUTIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH WHAT THE
ECMWF WAS DEPICTING ABOUT 5-6 DAYS AGO...BRINGING A VERY COLD AIR
MASS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BUT MODEL POPS HAVE
CONTINUED TO INCREASE AS THE RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
AND SETTLING ON A STRONGER/FARTHER SOUTHWARD SYSTEM. HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED EARLIER HAVE KEPT THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER/NORTHERN MIDLANDS. THESE POPS
ARE IN THE HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY CATEGORY. SIGNIFICANT COLD
ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA...AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES
OFFSHORE. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY DURING THIS
PERIOD. MODEL FORECASTS OF 850MB WINDS CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS ON
SATURDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW SOME OF
THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN. DO NOT THINK RED FLAG CRITERIA
WILL BE MET BUT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED AS
WELL AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
BE NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S. SATURDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND IN
THE MID 30S...ALTHOUGH FROST IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT
WIND KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A COLD START WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A COLD AND DRY
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AROUND +3C TO +5C. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY
WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
EVENT IS EXPECT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WITH NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT SOME OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS
OF THE CWA TO RECORD THEIR FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON. WILL LIKELY
NEED AN ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON
MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.  ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION CARVING A TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SO WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  TEMPERATURES TUE/WED WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 8-10 KTS...BECOMING LIGHT THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. BREEZY
TO POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KFFC 301511
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1111 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH DRY/COOL AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE
CWA BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SOME
SUB FREEZING TEMPS ARE A GOOD BET IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHEAST GA SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL BE LOOKING INTO FREEZE
WATCH POTENTIAL WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE. AS SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST IS STILL POSSIBLE...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY UNDER HALF AN INCH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

A DRY...COLD AIR MASS HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...NOW EXTENDING ALONG THE GEORGIA COASTLINE AND INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA. SHORT TERM LARGELY REMAINS UNEVENTFUL...WITH DEEP LAYER
COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES 10-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS BELOW NORMAL TREND CONTINUES
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY. EXPECT THIS REINFORCING FRONT
TO PRODUCE SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES THE AREA HAS SEEN SO FAR
THIS SEASON INTO THE WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME MOISTURE MOVING INTO FAR NORTH
GEORGIA AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES...AND SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS MOISTURE AND COLD TEMPERATURES
COULD RESULT IN POTENTIAL WINTER PRECIP IN THE FAR NORTH GEORGIA
MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING /SEE EXTENDED/.

THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MEANS THAT HALLOWEEN TRICK
OR TREATING WILL BE WINDY AND CHILLY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. BY 6PM FRIDAY...EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE TO FEEL LIKE TO BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO RIGHT AROUND 60...OR COLDER.

31

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

STRONG COLD CORE SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS EXPECTED MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA...NORTH OF ATLANTA TO ATHENS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS GO
BELOW FREEZING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL SUPPORT A MIX ON
RAIN/SNOW DURING THAT TIME FOR THE NORTHEAST. ACCUMULATION STILL
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH. SATURDAY SHOULD BE WINDY
WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS
THE STATE THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
5-8KT TODAY...WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF NNE WINDS LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON AT SOME LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
AFTER 00Z...THEN INCREASE TO 5-8KT AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  42  67  38 /   0   0   5  10
ATLANTA         67  45  65  37 /   0   0   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     62  36  58  33 /   0   0  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    66  40  65  35 /   0   0  10  10
COLUMBUS        71  45  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     65  44  62  37 /   0   0  10  20
MACON           72  42  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            67  40  65  35 /   0   0  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  68  40  69  36 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         73  48  71  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31/BAKER
LONG TERM...41
AVIATION...31







000
FXUS62 KCHS 301505
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1105 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFFSHORE BY MID
MORNING...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT...AND RAIN CHANCES OVER LAND AREAS ARE NEAR ZERO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD FORECAST
TO INDICATE LESS OVERALL COVERAGE...HOWEVER A SWATH OF LINGERING
STRATUS CONTINUES TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AS
THESE CLOUDS DRIFT SOUTHWARD...WILL NEED TO MONITOR ANOTHER AREA
OF STRATUS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE SANTEE RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA
THAT IS ALSO SHIFTING SOUTH. IN GENERAL...WILL ADVERTISE MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING THE PERSISTENT UPPER
TROUGH...EXPECT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE WATERS AND PORTIONS OF COASTAL
AREAS. FARTHER INLAND...MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S. ELSEWHERE...THE GREATER SKY COVER AND
SLIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN THE AMPLIFICATION OF A MID
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS BUT IT
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 OR IN THE LOWER 70S
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT RAPIDLY DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. WHILE
THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND CAUSE A POWERFUL COLD FRONT TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE APPEARS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE NEWLY FORMING SURFACE LOW TO ALLOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA
OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE DEVELOPING COLD POOL ALOFT...THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME GRAUPEL TO OCCUR BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DEEPER MIXING WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING LATE
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY.

SATURDAY...A 535 DECAMETER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS HIGHLY ANOMALOUS LOW AND VERY STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF -5C...WHICH IS 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL! NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL BE A
VERY COLD DAY FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A RECORD LOW
MAXIMUM AT KCHS...BUT SEE BELOW FOR OTHER RECORD INFORMATION. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR...WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KT DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW.
DEEP MIXING PROFILES WILL TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 35 MPH AT TIMES. THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR GRAUPEL TO OCCUR WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH THE CORE
OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT SHIFTING OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS BEGIN
TO PULL AWAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
TIGHT OVER THE REGION BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE BOMBING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP WINDS
COUPLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S FOR LOWS...WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LIKELY OCCURRING ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST GIVEN THE ADVECTIVE REGIME.

SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ONLY
MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 50S OR LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

LAKE WINDS...THE COMBINATION OF WARM LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES AND
VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IN WAKE OF A POWERFUL COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
ON LAKE MOULTRIE FOR MARINERS. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH WAVES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL
CERTAINLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...A STRONG RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND EXPAND OVER
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
MID-WEEK...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY.

OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE
WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH/ONSHORE FLOW AND THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. PATCHY FROST
COULD OCCUR INLAND FROM THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN WELL SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL.
THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z AT
KSAV DUE TO A LINGERING SWATH OF LOW STRATUS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AT THE
TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
TOWARD INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10
TO 15 KT TODAY...POSSIBLY INCREASING ANOTHER 5 KT OR SO TONIGHT
WITH A TIGHTENING LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION OVER
FAIRLY WARM ATLANTIC WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...THEN A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...VERY
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND POTENT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
WILL RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GALE CONDITIONS LIKELY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT NOV 1...
KCHS 56 /1993/...
KSAV 52 /1925/...
KCXM 52 /1925/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...WMS/JAQ
MARINE...WMS/JAQ/JRL
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KFFC 301149
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
749 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

A DRY...COLD AIR MASS HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...NOW EXTENDING ALONG THE GEORGIA COASTLINE AND INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA. SHORT TERM LARGELY REMAINS UNEVENTFUL...WITH DEEP LAYER
COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES 10-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS BELOW NORMAL TREND CONTINUES
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY. EXPECT THIS REINFORCING FRONT
TO PRODUCE SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES THE AREA HAS SEEN SO FAR
THIS SEASON INTO THE WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME MOISTURE MOVING INTO FAR NORTH
GEORGIA AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES...AND SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS MOISTURE AND COLD TEMPERATURES
COULD RESULT IN POTENTIAL WINTER PRECIP IN THE FAR NORTH GEORGIA
MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING /SEE EXTENDED/.

THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MEANS THAT HALLOWEEN TRICK
OR TREATING WILL BE WINDY AND CHILLY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. BY 6PM FRIDAY...EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE TO FEEL LIKE TO BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO RIGHT AROUND 60...OR COLDER.

31

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

STRONG COLD CORE SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS EXPECTED MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA...NORTH OF ATLANTA TO ATHENS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS GO
BELOW FREEZING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL SUPPORT A MIX ON
RAIN/SNOW DURING THAT TIME FOR THE NORTHEAST. ACCUMULATION STILL
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH. SATURDAY SHOULD BE WINDY
WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS
THE STATE THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST.

41


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
5-8KT TODAY...WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF NNE WINDS LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON AT SOME LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
AFTER 00Z...THEN INCREASE TO 5-8KT AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  42  67  38 /   0   0   5  10
ATLANTA         67  45  65  37 /   0   0   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     62  36  58  33 /   0   0  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    66  40  65  35 /   0   0  10  10
COLUMBUS        71  45  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     65  44  62  37 /   0   0  10  20
MACON           72  42  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            67  40  65  35 /   0   0  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  68  40  69  36 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         73  48  71  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31






000
FXUS62 KCHS 301148
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
748 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL
SETTLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND
THROUGH NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING. THE BRUNT OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ALONG PART OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID-
MORNING. THE 850-700 MB TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES TODAY WITH EXTENSIVE MOISTURE AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
STICKING AROUND ACROSS OUR EASTERN THIRD. ENOUGH UPLIFT WILL BE
PRESENT OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER
INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT THOUGH WITH THE
PERSISTING UPPER TROUGH WE EXPECT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE WATERS AND
PORTIONS OF COASTAL AREAS. FARTHER INLAND...MODEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WHILE ELSEWHERE THE
GREATER SKY COVER AND SLIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN THE AMPLIFICATION OF A MID
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS BUT IT
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 OR IN THE LOWER 70S
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT RAPIDLY DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. WHILE
THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND CAUSE A POWERFUL COLD FRONT TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE APPEARS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE NEWLY FORMING SURFACE LOW TO ALLOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA
OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE DEVELOPING COLD POOL ALOFT...THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME GRAUPEL TO OCCUR BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DEEPER MIXING WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING LATE
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY.

SATURDAY...A 535 DECAMETER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS HIGHLY ANOMALOUS LOW AND VERY STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF -5C...WHICH IS 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL! NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL BE A
VERY COLD DAY FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A RECORD LOW
MAXIMUM AT KCHS...BUT SEE BELOW FOR OTHER RECORD INFORMATION. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR...WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KT DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW.
DEEP MIXING PROFILES WILL TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 35 MPH AT TIMES. THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR GRAUPEL TO OCCUR WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH THE CORE
OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT SHIFTING OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS BEGIN
TO PULL AWAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
TIGHT OVER THE REGION BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE BOMBING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP WINDS
COUPLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S FOR LOWS...WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LIKELY OCCURRING ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST GIVEN THE ADVECTIVE REGIME.

SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ONLY
MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 50S OR LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

LAKE WINDS...THE COMBINATION OF WARM LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES AND
VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IN WAKE OF A POWERFUL COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
ON LAKE MOULTRIE FOR MARINERS. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH WAVES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL
CERTAINLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...A STRONG RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND EXPAND OVER
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
MID-WEEK...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY.

OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE
WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH/ONSHORE FLOW AND THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. PATCHY FROST
COULD OCCUR INLAND FROM THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN WELL SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL.
THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF/S. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AT THE
TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 KT TODAY...BUT INCREASING TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT WITH AN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT COMBINED WITH COLD ADVECTION OVER
FAIRLY WARM ATLANTIC WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...THEN A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...VERY
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND POTENT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
WILL RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GALE CONDITIONS LIKELY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT NOV 1...
KCHS 56 /1993/...
KSAV 52 /1925/...
KCXM 52 /1925/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JRL/JAQ
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 301017
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
617 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING. IT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST
ALONG WITH THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS MAY OCCUR
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY CLEARED THE SC COAST. 88D SHOWS A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG THE GRAND STRAND AND SE NC. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS
CLOUDS CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TODAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. EXPECT SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TONIGHT. BUFKIT TIME
SECTIONS INDICATE CALM/LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS
NEARLY IDENTICAL AND WILL STAY NEAR CONSENSUS. THIS WILL PLACE
OVERNIGHT LOWS VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY IN THE LOW/MID 40S. 500MB
FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME HIGH AMPLIFIED LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL SET UP A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE ALONG THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO WESTERN CANADA...AND
SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/ALONG
THE EAST COAST. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
PAST RUNS INCLUDING THE 00Z RUN OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED MUCH STRONGER WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND CLOSING OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS BY
SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE SOLUTIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH WHAT THE
ECMWF WAS DEPICTING ABOUT 5-6 DAYS AGO...BRINGING A VERY COLD AIR
MASS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BUT MODEL POPS HAVE
CONTINUED TO INCREASE AS THE RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
AND SETTLING ON A STRONGER/FARTHER SOUTHWARD SYSTEM. HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED EARLIER HAVE KEPT THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER/NORTHERN MIDLANDS. THESE POPS
ARE IN THE HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY CATEGORY. SIGNIFICANT COLD
ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA...AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES
OFFSHORE. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY DURING THIS
PERIOD. MODEL FORECASTS OF 850MB WINDS CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS ON
SATURDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW SOME OF
THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN. DO NOT THINK RED FLAG CRITERIA
WILL BE MET BUT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED AS
WELL AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
BE NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S. SATURDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND IN
THE MID 30S...ALTHOUGH FROST IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT
WIND KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A COLD START WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A COLD AND DRY
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AROUND +3C TO +5C. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY
WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
EVENT IS EXPECT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WITH NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT SOME OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS
OF THE CWA TO RECORD THEIR FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON. WILL LIKELY
NEED AN ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON
MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.  ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION CARVING A TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SO WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  TEMPERATURES TUE/WED WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES. CLOUD BASES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET....WITH SKIES CLEARING THROUGH 14Z.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH 8-10 KNOT...BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. BREEZY
TO POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 301017
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
617 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING. IT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST
ALONG WITH THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS MAY OCCUR
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY CLEARED THE SC COAST. 88D SHOWS A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG THE GRAND STRAND AND SE NC. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS
CLOUDS CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TODAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. EXPECT SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TONIGHT. BUFKIT TIME
SECTIONS INDICATE CALM/LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS
NEARLY IDENTICAL AND WILL STAY NEAR CONSENSUS. THIS WILL PLACE
OVERNIGHT LOWS VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY IN THE LOW/MID 40S. 500MB
FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME HIGH AMPLIFIED LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL SET UP A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE ALONG THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO WESTERN CANADA...AND
SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/ALONG
THE EAST COAST. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
PAST RUNS INCLUDING THE 00Z RUN OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED MUCH STRONGER WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND CLOSING OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS BY
SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE SOLUTIONS ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH WHAT THE
ECMWF WAS DEPICTING ABOUT 5-6 DAYS AGO...BRINGING A VERY COLD AIR
MASS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BUT MODEL POPS HAVE
CONTINUED TO INCREASE AS THE RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
AND SETTLING ON A STRONGER/FARTHER SOUTHWARD SYSTEM. HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED EARLIER HAVE KEPT THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER/NORTHERN MIDLANDS. THESE POPS
ARE IN THE HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY CATEGORY. SIGNIFICANT COLD
ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA...AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES
OFFSHORE. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY DURING THIS
PERIOD. MODEL FORECASTS OF 850MB WINDS CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS ON
SATURDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW SOME OF
THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN. DO NOT THINK RED FLAG CRITERIA
WILL BE MET BUT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED AS
WELL AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
BE NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S. SATURDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND IN
THE MID 30S...ALTHOUGH FROST IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT
WIND KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A COLD START WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A COLD AND DRY
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AROUND +3C TO +5C. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY
WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
EVENT IS EXPECT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WITH NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT SOME OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS
OF THE CWA TO RECORD THEIR FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON. WILL LIKELY
NEED AN ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON
MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.  ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION CARVING A TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SO WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  TEMPERATURES TUE/WED WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES. CLOUD BASES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET....WITH SKIES CLEARING THROUGH 14Z.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH 8-10 KNOT...BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. BREEZY
TO POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






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