Home > Products > State Listing > Georgia Data
Latest:
 AFDFFC |  AFDCHS |  AFDCAE |
  [top]

000
FXUS62 KFFC 012315 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
715 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK RIDGING AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY...DIMINISHING AFTER 10 PM. MLCAPES CONTINUE TO BE
DECENT...WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT NECESSARILY ANTICIPATED
TODAY OR TUESDAY...AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STORMS
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY FIRE ALONG OLD BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO MID
WEEK. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE LOW TO MID 90S IN THE AFTERNOON.

31

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHERN STATES THRU SATURDAY. EVEN BY THE WEEKEND...NO
INDICATION OF STRONG PATTERN SHIFT OR AIRMASS CHANGE IN 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE. MED RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT HEIGHT AND MOISTURE
FIELDS WHICH GET ABOUT AS CLOSE AS YOU CAN POSSIBLY GET TO MEDIAN
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST OF SEPTEMBER. WARM DAYS AND NIGHTS WITH
APPROX 30PCT COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA...PERHAPS A
BIT HIGHER COVERAGE BASED ON MODEL MEAN RH FIELDS.

NOT SEEING ANY HIGH IMPACT...TROPICAL SYSTEMS OR PATTERN CHANGING
FEATURES IN MODEL FORECASTS. 12Z GFS DOES TAKE A TURN FOR A WARMER
PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...BUT THIS SOLUTION NOT CONSISTENT WITH PREV RUNS OR 12Z
ECMWF. REFRESHED TEMPS BASED ON 30DAY BIAS CORRECTED GRIDDED
BLENDED GUIDANCE AND LATEST HPC GUIDANCE. MOST OTHER FIELDS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH ACCURATE DEPICTION OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IN POP
AND WX GRIDS.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED 323 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-
WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON WEDNESDAY...BUT A
WEAK BOUNDARY MAY TRY AND SNEAK THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD DIMINISH BY FRIDAY. A
SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT THE CWFA DURING THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE BOUNDARYS PROGRESSION DOWN.

OVERALL...NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. POPS WILL
MAINLY REMAIN DIURNAL IN NATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH PATCHY MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FURTHER IMPACTS OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR VSBYS DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  95  70  95 /  20  40  30  30
ATLANTA         73  93  73  90 /  30  40  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     65  88  66  86 /  20  40  30  40
CARTERSVILLE    70  94  68  91 /  30  40  20  30
COLUMBUS        74  96  74  92 /  30  40  20  40
GAINESVILLE     71  92  71  91 /  20  40  30  40
MACON           71  95  71  94 /  30  40  20  40
ROME            69  94  68  91 /  30  40  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  92  68  91 /  30  40  20  30
VIDALIA         74  95  74  93 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...BDL





  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCHS 012002
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
402 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE WEEK...THEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE APPEARS MORE SIMILAR TO A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SCENARIO WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED ALONG
AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. CAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2000
J/KG NORTH TO 4000 J/KG SOUTH ACCORDING TO LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WHILE GENERALLY SHIFTING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE. SEVERAL
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION COULD LINGER
ACROSS FAR INLAND ZONES WELL INTO THE EVENING TIME
FRAME...POSSIBLY DUE TO NON-DIURNAL FORCING FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES SUCH AS THE LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK MESO-LOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL THUS DIMINISH FROM EAST
TO WEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAINING ACROSS THE FAR INLAND
COUNTIES AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS CAN ADDRESS
RADAR TRENDS AND END MENTION OF PRECIPITATION EARLY IF NECESSARY.
THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO THE
MARINE ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DESPITE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE STRUGGLING TO
DEEPEN...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE UNDER STRONG
UPPER RIDGING. HOWEVER PREFER TO MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...WEST AND NORTHWEST TIER THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY TO OVERCOME SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING THAT IS CURRENTLY
LIMITING STRENGTHENING POTENTIAL BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
HAZARD WITHIN ANY STORMS ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT...SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ONCE
AGAIN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SREF AND NAM VISIBILITY SOLUTIONS
ARE RATHER CONSERVATIVE AND THUS PREFER NOT TO MENTION FOG IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AREAS THAT RECEIVE NOTABLE RAIN AND WHERE
SKY COVER SCATTERS COULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...BENEATH AN WEST/EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID DAY FEATURING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS CLOSE TO THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND AND
CHANCE POPS INLAND CLOSE TO A SURFACE TROUGH. 01/12Z GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD EVENTUALLY REQUIRE LOCALLY
GREATER POPS INLAND...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE CAPPED AROUND 40
PERCENT DUE TO THE PRESENCE/INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION COULD SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO NOTHING MORE THAN A COUPLE OF BRIEF/PULSE
DAMAGING WIND EVENTS ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

TUESDAY EVENING...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 70S
MANY AREAS...EXCEPT AROUND 80F AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL NORTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEA BREEZE TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES 100-105F WILL AGAIN PREVAIL OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTS A NORMAL DIURNAL DISSIPATION
OF CONVECTION WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION COULD
PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECASTS INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. WITHOUT A STRONG REASON TO LOWER POPS MAINTAINED
WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NORTH OF
THE REGION. 01/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY SOME DEGREE OF
SUBSIDENCE/SUBTLE DRYING AS SUGGESTED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
THUS...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS...BUT THURSDAY COULD
BE SOMEWHAT LESS ACTIVE AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. DEEP
LAYERED ONSHORE FLOW COULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...FEATURING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S EAST OF I-95 AND MID 90S WELL INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EVER EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT WOBBLES AROUND SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT SEPARATED BY A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING
AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION IT WOULD NECESSITATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND
INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO
DETERMINE THE NEED TO EXPLICITLY MENTION TSRA IMPACTS AT EITHER
TAF SITE...YET PREFER TO REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WITH THE TAFS DUE TO
THE PULSE NATURE OF DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.
CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY PUSH INLAND AND DIMINISH TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME STRATUS
AND/OR LIGHT FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TUESDAY MORNING...YET
PREFER TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC VFR FORECAST FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...AS THE MARINE ZONES REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NOCTURNAL
JETTING WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE UP TO 15 KT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS DIRECTIONS BECOME MORE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN TRANSITION
INTO THE WATERS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN THE SAME THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PRODUCES
GENERAL/PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT.
DEVIATIONS WILL OCCUR MAINLY AS THE DAILY SEA BREEZE TURNS WINDS
TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...AS NOCTURNAL SURGES DEVELOP AND AS
THE LAND BREEZE PUSHES OFFSHORE EACH MORNING.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SHIFTING OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE HIGH
POSITION WILL RESULT IN PREVAILING EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW MAINLY 15 KT
OR LESS...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.

SEAS THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN/LIGHT WIND FIELD EACH MORNING COULD
SUPPORT WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR






000
FXUS62 KCHS 012002
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
402 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE WEEK...THEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE APPEARS MORE SIMILAR TO A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SCENARIO WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED ALONG
AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. CAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2000
J/KG NORTH TO 4000 J/KG SOUTH ACCORDING TO LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WHILE GENERALLY SHIFTING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE. SEVERAL
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION COULD LINGER
ACROSS FAR INLAND ZONES WELL INTO THE EVENING TIME
FRAME...POSSIBLY DUE TO NON-DIURNAL FORCING FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES SUCH AS THE LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK MESO-LOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL THUS DIMINISH FROM EAST
TO WEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAINING ACROSS THE FAR INLAND
COUNTIES AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS CAN ADDRESS
RADAR TRENDS AND END MENTION OF PRECIPITATION EARLY IF NECESSARY.
THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO THE
MARINE ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DESPITE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE STRUGGLING TO
DEEPEN...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE UNDER STRONG
UPPER RIDGING. HOWEVER PREFER TO MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...WEST AND NORTHWEST TIER THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY TO OVERCOME SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING THAT IS CURRENTLY
LIMITING STRENGTHENING POTENTIAL BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
HAZARD WITHIN ANY STORMS ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT...SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ONCE
AGAIN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SREF AND NAM VISIBILITY SOLUTIONS
ARE RATHER CONSERVATIVE AND THUS PREFER NOT TO MENTION FOG IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AREAS THAT RECEIVE NOTABLE RAIN AND WHERE
SKY COVER SCATTERS COULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...BENEATH AN WEST/EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID DAY FEATURING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS CLOSE TO THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND AND
CHANCE POPS INLAND CLOSE TO A SURFACE TROUGH. 01/12Z GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD EVENTUALLY REQUIRE LOCALLY
GREATER POPS INLAND...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE CAPPED AROUND 40
PERCENT DUE TO THE PRESENCE/INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION COULD SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO NOTHING MORE THAN A COUPLE OF BRIEF/PULSE
DAMAGING WIND EVENTS ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

TUESDAY EVENING...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 70S
MANY AREAS...EXCEPT AROUND 80F AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL NORTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEA BREEZE TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES 100-105F WILL AGAIN PREVAIL OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTS A NORMAL DIURNAL DISSIPATION
OF CONVECTION WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION COULD
PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECASTS INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. WITHOUT A STRONG REASON TO LOWER POPS MAINTAINED
WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NORTH OF
THE REGION. 01/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY SOME DEGREE OF
SUBSIDENCE/SUBTLE DRYING AS SUGGESTED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
THUS...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS...BUT THURSDAY COULD
BE SOMEWHAT LESS ACTIVE AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. DEEP
LAYERED ONSHORE FLOW COULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...FEATURING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S EAST OF I-95 AND MID 90S WELL INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EVER EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT WOBBLES AROUND SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT SEPARATED BY A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING
AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION IT WOULD NECESSITATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND
INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO
DETERMINE THE NEED TO EXPLICITLY MENTION TSRA IMPACTS AT EITHER
TAF SITE...YET PREFER TO REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WITH THE TAFS DUE TO
THE PULSE NATURE OF DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.
CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY PUSH INLAND AND DIMINISH TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME STRATUS
AND/OR LIGHT FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TUESDAY MORNING...YET
PREFER TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC VFR FORECAST FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...AS THE MARINE ZONES REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NOCTURNAL
JETTING WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE UP TO 15 KT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS DIRECTIONS BECOME MORE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN TRANSITION
INTO THE WATERS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN THE SAME THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PRODUCES
GENERAL/PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT.
DEVIATIONS WILL OCCUR MAINLY AS THE DAILY SEA BREEZE TURNS WINDS
TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...AS NOCTURNAL SURGES DEVELOP AND AS
THE LAND BREEZE PUSHES OFFSHORE EACH MORNING.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SHIFTING OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE HIGH
POSITION WILL RESULT IN PREVAILING EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW MAINLY 15 KT
OR LESS...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.

SEAS THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN/LIGHT WIND FIELD EACH MORNING COULD
SUPPORT WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR






000
FXUS62 KCHS 012002
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
402 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE WEEK...THEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE APPEARS MORE SIMILAR TO A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SCENARIO WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED ALONG
AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. CAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2000
J/KG NORTH TO 4000 J/KG SOUTH ACCORDING TO LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WHILE GENERALLY SHIFTING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE. SEVERAL
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION COULD LINGER
ACROSS FAR INLAND ZONES WELL INTO THE EVENING TIME
FRAME...POSSIBLY DUE TO NON-DIURNAL FORCING FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES SUCH AS THE LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK MESO-LOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL THUS DIMINISH FROM EAST
TO WEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAINING ACROSS THE FAR INLAND
COUNTIES AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS CAN ADDRESS
RADAR TRENDS AND END MENTION OF PRECIPITATION EARLY IF NECESSARY.
THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO THE
MARINE ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DESPITE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE STRUGGLING TO
DEEPEN...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE UNDER STRONG
UPPER RIDGING. HOWEVER PREFER TO MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...WEST AND NORTHWEST TIER THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY TO OVERCOME SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING THAT IS CURRENTLY
LIMITING STRENGTHENING POTENTIAL BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
HAZARD WITHIN ANY STORMS ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT...SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ONCE
AGAIN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SREF AND NAM VISIBILITY SOLUTIONS
ARE RATHER CONSERVATIVE AND THUS PREFER NOT TO MENTION FOG IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AREAS THAT RECEIVE NOTABLE RAIN AND WHERE
SKY COVER SCATTERS COULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...BENEATH AN WEST/EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID DAY FEATURING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS CLOSE TO THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND AND
CHANCE POPS INLAND CLOSE TO A SURFACE TROUGH. 01/12Z GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD EVENTUALLY REQUIRE LOCALLY
GREATER POPS INLAND...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE CAPPED AROUND 40
PERCENT DUE TO THE PRESENCE/INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION COULD SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO NOTHING MORE THAN A COUPLE OF BRIEF/PULSE
DAMAGING WIND EVENTS ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

TUESDAY EVENING...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 70S
MANY AREAS...EXCEPT AROUND 80F AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL NORTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEA BREEZE TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES 100-105F WILL AGAIN PREVAIL OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTS A NORMAL DIURNAL DISSIPATION
OF CONVECTION WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION COULD
PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECASTS INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. WITHOUT A STRONG REASON TO LOWER POPS MAINTAINED
WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NORTH OF
THE REGION. 01/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY SOME DEGREE OF
SUBSIDENCE/SUBTLE DRYING AS SUGGESTED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
THUS...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS...BUT THURSDAY COULD
BE SOMEWHAT LESS ACTIVE AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. DEEP
LAYERED ONSHORE FLOW COULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...FEATURING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S EAST OF I-95 AND MID 90S WELL INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EVER EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT WOBBLES AROUND SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT SEPARATED BY A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING
AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION IT WOULD NECESSITATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND
INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO
DETERMINE THE NEED TO EXPLICITLY MENTION TSRA IMPACTS AT EITHER
TAF SITE...YET PREFER TO REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WITH THE TAFS DUE TO
THE PULSE NATURE OF DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.
CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY PUSH INLAND AND DIMINISH TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME STRATUS
AND/OR LIGHT FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TUESDAY MORNING...YET
PREFER TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC VFR FORECAST FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...AS THE MARINE ZONES REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NOCTURNAL
JETTING WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE UP TO 15 KT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS DIRECTIONS BECOME MORE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN TRANSITION
INTO THE WATERS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN THE SAME THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PRODUCES
GENERAL/PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT.
DEVIATIONS WILL OCCUR MAINLY AS THE DAILY SEA BREEZE TURNS WINDS
TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...AS NOCTURNAL SURGES DEVELOP AND AS
THE LAND BREEZE PUSHES OFFSHORE EACH MORNING.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SHIFTING OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE HIGH
POSITION WILL RESULT IN PREVAILING EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW MAINLY 15 KT
OR LESS...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.

SEAS THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN/LIGHT WIND FIELD EACH MORNING COULD
SUPPORT WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR






000
FXUS62 KCHS 012002
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
402 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE WEEK...THEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE APPEARS MORE SIMILAR TO A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SCENARIO WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED ALONG
AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. CAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2000
J/KG NORTH TO 4000 J/KG SOUTH ACCORDING TO LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WHILE GENERALLY SHIFTING INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE. SEVERAL
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION COULD LINGER
ACROSS FAR INLAND ZONES WELL INTO THE EVENING TIME
FRAME...POSSIBLY DUE TO NON-DIURNAL FORCING FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES SUCH AS THE LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK MESO-LOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL THUS DIMINISH FROM EAST
TO WEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAINING ACROSS THE FAR INLAND
COUNTIES AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS CAN ADDRESS
RADAR TRENDS AND END MENTION OF PRECIPITATION EARLY IF NECESSARY.
THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO THE
MARINE ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DESPITE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE STRUGGLING TO
DEEPEN...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE UNDER STRONG
UPPER RIDGING. HOWEVER PREFER TO MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...WEST AND NORTHWEST TIER THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY TO OVERCOME SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING THAT IS CURRENTLY
LIMITING STRENGTHENING POTENTIAL BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
HAZARD WITHIN ANY STORMS ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT...SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ONCE
AGAIN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SREF AND NAM VISIBILITY SOLUTIONS
ARE RATHER CONSERVATIVE AND THUS PREFER NOT TO MENTION FOG IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AREAS THAT RECEIVE NOTABLE RAIN AND WHERE
SKY COVER SCATTERS COULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...BENEATH AN WEST/EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID DAY FEATURING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F AWAY FROM THE COAST. MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS CLOSE TO THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND AND
CHANCE POPS INLAND CLOSE TO A SURFACE TROUGH. 01/12Z GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD EVENTUALLY REQUIRE LOCALLY
GREATER POPS INLAND...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE CAPPED AROUND 40
PERCENT DUE TO THE PRESENCE/INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION COULD SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO NOTHING MORE THAN A COUPLE OF BRIEF/PULSE
DAMAGING WIND EVENTS ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

TUESDAY EVENING...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 70S
MANY AREAS...EXCEPT AROUND 80F AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL NORTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEA BREEZE TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES 100-105F WILL AGAIN PREVAIL OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTS A NORMAL DIURNAL DISSIPATION
OF CONVECTION WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION COULD
PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECASTS INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. WITHOUT A STRONG REASON TO LOWER POPS MAINTAINED
WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NORTH OF
THE REGION. 01/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY SOME DEGREE OF
SUBSIDENCE/SUBTLE DRYING AS SUGGESTED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS.
THUS...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS...BUT THURSDAY COULD
BE SOMEWHAT LESS ACTIVE AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. DEEP
LAYERED ONSHORE FLOW COULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...FEATURING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S EAST OF I-95 AND MID 90S WELL INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EVER EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT WOBBLES AROUND SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT SEPARATED BY A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING
AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION IT WOULD NECESSITATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND
INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO
DETERMINE THE NEED TO EXPLICITLY MENTION TSRA IMPACTS AT EITHER
TAF SITE...YET PREFER TO REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WITH THE TAFS DUE TO
THE PULSE NATURE OF DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.
CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY PUSH INLAND AND DIMINISH TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME STRATUS
AND/OR LIGHT FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TUESDAY MORNING...YET
PREFER TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC VFR FORECAST FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...AS THE MARINE ZONES REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NOCTURNAL
JETTING WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE UP TO 15 KT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS DIRECTIONS BECOME MORE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN TRANSITION
INTO THE WATERS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN THE SAME THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PRODUCES
GENERAL/PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT.
DEVIATIONS WILL OCCUR MAINLY AS THE DAILY SEA BREEZE TURNS WINDS
TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...AS NOCTURNAL SURGES DEVELOP AND AS
THE LAND BREEZE PUSHES OFFSHORE EACH MORNING.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SHIFTING OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE HIGH
POSITION WILL RESULT IN PREVAILING EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW MAINLY 15 KT
OR LESS...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.

SEAS THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN/LIGHT WIND FIELD EACH MORNING COULD
SUPPORT WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR






000
FXUS62 KFFC 011934
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
334 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK RIDGING AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY...DIMINISHING AFTER 10 PM. MLCAPES CONTINUE TO BE
DECENT...WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT NECESSARILY ANTICIPATED
TODAY OR TUESDAY...AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STORMS
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY FIRE ALONG OLD BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO MID
WEEK. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE LOW TO MID 90S IN THE AFTERNOON.

31


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHERN STATES THRU SATURDAY. EVEN BY THE WEEKEND...NO
INDICATION OF STRONG PATTERN SHIFT OR AIRMASS CHANGE IN 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE. MED RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT HEIGHT AND MOISTURE
FIELDS WHICH GET ABOUT AS CLOSE AS YOU CAN POSSIBLY GET TO MEDIAN
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST OF SEPTEMBER. WARM DAYS AND NIGHTS WITH
APPROX 30PCT COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA...PERHAPS A
BIT HIGHER COVERAGE BASED ON MODEL MEAN RH FIELDS.

NOT SEEING ANY HIGH IMPACT...TROPICAL SYSTEMS OR PATTERN CHANGING
FEATURES IN MODEL FORECASTS. 12Z GFS DOES TAKE A TURN FOR A WARMER
PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...BUT THIS SOLUTION NOT CONSISTENT WITH PREV RUNS OR 12Z
ECMWF. REFRESHED TEMPS BASED ON 30DAY BIAS CORRECTED GRIDDED
BLENDED GUIDANCE AND LATEST HPC GUIDANCE. MOST OTHER FIELDS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH ACCURATE DEPICTION OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IN POP
AND WX GRIDS.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED 323 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-
WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON WEDNESDAY...BUT A
WEAK BOUNDARY MAY TRY AND SNEAK THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD DIMINISH BY FRIDAY. A
SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT THE CWFA DURING THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE BOUNDARYS PROGRESSION DOWN.

OVERALL...NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. POPS WILL
MAINLY REMAIN DIURNAL IN NATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS.

NLISTEMAA


&&


AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN CU THIS
AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MODELS DO ADVERTISE A MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH AT LEAST FEW-SCT
5-6KFT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-WNW BY 14-15Z...WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY 6KT OR LESS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TUESDAY WILL
BE 19-22Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  95  70  95 /  20  40  30  30
ATLANTA         73  93  73  90 /  20  30  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     65  88  66  86 /  20  30  30  40
CARTERSVILLE    70  94  68  91 /  20  20  20  30
COLUMBUS        74  96  74  92 /  20  30  20  40
GAINESVILLE     71  92  71  91 /  20  30  30  40
MACON           71  95  71  94 /  20  40  20  40
ROME            69  94  68  91 /  20  20  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  92  68  91 /  20  30  20  30
VIDALIA         74  95  74  93 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...31






000
FXUS62 KFFC 011934
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
334 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK RIDGING AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY...DIMINISHING AFTER 10 PM. MLCAPES CONTINUE TO BE
DECENT...WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT NECESSARILY ANTICIPATED
TODAY OR TUESDAY...AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STORMS
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY FIRE ALONG OLD BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO MID
WEEK. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE LOW TO MID 90S IN THE AFTERNOON.

31


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHERN STATES THRU SATURDAY. EVEN BY THE WEEKEND...NO
INDICATION OF STRONG PATTERN SHIFT OR AIRMASS CHANGE IN 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE. MED RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT HEIGHT AND MOISTURE
FIELDS WHICH GET ABOUT AS CLOSE AS YOU CAN POSSIBLY GET TO MEDIAN
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST OF SEPTEMBER. WARM DAYS AND NIGHTS WITH
APPROX 30PCT COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA...PERHAPS A
BIT HIGHER COVERAGE BASED ON MODEL MEAN RH FIELDS.

NOT SEEING ANY HIGH IMPACT...TROPICAL SYSTEMS OR PATTERN CHANGING
FEATURES IN MODEL FORECASTS. 12Z GFS DOES TAKE A TURN FOR A WARMER
PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...BUT THIS SOLUTION NOT CONSISTENT WITH PREV RUNS OR 12Z
ECMWF. REFRESHED TEMPS BASED ON 30DAY BIAS CORRECTED GRIDDED
BLENDED GUIDANCE AND LATEST HPC GUIDANCE. MOST OTHER FIELDS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH ACCURATE DEPICTION OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IN POP
AND WX GRIDS.

SNELSON

PREV LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED 323 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-
WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON WEDNESDAY...BUT A
WEAK BOUNDARY MAY TRY AND SNEAK THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD DIMINISH BY FRIDAY. A
SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT THE CWFA DURING THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE BOUNDARYS PROGRESSION DOWN.

OVERALL...NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. POPS WILL
MAINLY REMAIN DIURNAL IN NATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS.

NLISTEMAA


&&


AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN CU THIS
AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MODELS DO ADVERTISE A MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH AT LEAST FEW-SCT
5-6KFT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-WNW BY 14-15Z...WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY 6KT OR LESS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TUESDAY WILL
BE 19-22Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  95  70  95 /  20  40  30  30
ATLANTA         73  93  73  90 /  20  30  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     65  88  66  86 /  20  30  30  40
CARTERSVILLE    70  94  68  91 /  20  20  20  30
COLUMBUS        74  96  74  92 /  20  30  20  40
GAINESVILLE     71  92  71  91 /  20  30  30  40
MACON           71  95  71  94 /  20  40  20  40
ROME            69  94  68  91 /  20  20  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  92  68  91 /  20  30  20  30
VIDALIA         74  95  74  93 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...31




  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCAE 011847
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
247 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL HAVE STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. HEATING AND
MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG BY 900 AM. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING IN THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THE NAM
ESPECIALLY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE
TROUGH...AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THERE IS MORE THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE. THE
SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOME
WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS MOS
INDICATE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE UPPER-
LEVEL FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. ALSO...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SLOW LIMITING
COVERAGE BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES
SHOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY. THE NAM HAS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -7. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AS WELL. WE FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE
RECENT COOL BIAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING TO REMAIN IN THE AREA...SOMEWHERE ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT REGION. STRONG HEATING ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW AND WEAK SURFACE SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD HELP INITIATE
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THE NAM
AND GFS MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT AND
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. IT WILL REMAIN HOT. LEANED JUST
ABOVE THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE IN
THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD BY
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUING AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BY LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS WESTWARD BY THE WEEKEND. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL STAY WITH THIS CURRENT TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. IFR FOG ALREADY OCCURRING AT
AGS. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL
PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS AND POSSIBLY OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z.
FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 17Z ONWARD REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUST A NOTE...THE RECORD HIGH FOR COLUMBIA TOMORROW SEPTEMBER 2ND
IS 98 DEGREES SET IN 1944. THE RECORD HIGH FOR AUGUSTA IS 101 SET
IN IN 1957. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR COLUMBIA IS 97 DEGREES AND
FOR AUGUSTA IS 98 DEGREES. COULD VERY WELL BE NEAR THE RECORD AT
COLUMBIA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 011847
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
247 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL HAVE STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. HEATING AND
MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG BY 900 AM. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING IN THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THE NAM
ESPECIALLY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE
TROUGH...AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THERE IS MORE THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE. THE
SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOME
WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS MOS
INDICATE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE UPPER-
LEVEL FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. ALSO...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SLOW LIMITING
COVERAGE BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES
SHOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY. THE NAM HAS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -7. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AS WELL. WE FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE
RECENT COOL BIAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING TO REMAIN IN THE AREA...SOMEWHERE ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT REGION. STRONG HEATING ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW AND WEAK SURFACE SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD HELP INITIATE
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THE NAM
AND GFS MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT AND
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. IT WILL REMAIN HOT. LEANED JUST
ABOVE THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE IN
THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD BY
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUING AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BY LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS WESTWARD BY THE WEEKEND. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL STAY WITH THIS CURRENT TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. IFR FOG ALREADY OCCURRING AT
AGS. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL
PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS AND POSSIBLY OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z.
FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 17Z ONWARD REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUST A NOTE...THE RECORD HIGH FOR COLUMBIA TOMORROW SEPTEMBER 2ND
IS 98 DEGREES SET IN 1944. THE RECORD HIGH FOR AUGUSTA IS 101 SET
IN IN 1957. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR COLUMBIA IS 97 DEGREES AND
FOR AUGUSTA IS 98 DEGREES. COULD VERY WELL BE NEAR THE RECORD AT
COLUMBIA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 011847
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
247 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL HAVE STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. HEATING AND
MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG BY 900 AM. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING IN THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THE NAM
ESPECIALLY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE
TROUGH...AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THERE IS MORE THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE. THE
SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOME
WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS MOS
INDICATE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE UPPER-
LEVEL FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. ALSO...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SLOW LIMITING
COVERAGE BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES
SHOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY. THE NAM HAS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -7. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AS WELL. WE FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE
RECENT COOL BIAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING TO REMAIN IN THE AREA...SOMEWHERE ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT REGION. STRONG HEATING ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW AND WEAK SURFACE SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD HELP INITIATE
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THE NAM
AND GFS MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT AND
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. IT WILL REMAIN HOT. LEANED JUST
ABOVE THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE IN
THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD BY
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUING AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BY LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS WESTWARD BY THE WEEKEND. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL STAY WITH THIS CURRENT TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. IFR FOG ALREADY OCCURRING AT
AGS. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL
PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS AND POSSIBLY OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z.
FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 17Z ONWARD REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUST A NOTE...THE RECORD HIGH FOR COLUMBIA TOMORROW SEPTEMBER 2ND
IS 98 DEGREES SET IN 1944. THE RECORD HIGH FOR AUGUSTA IS 101 SET
IN IN 1957. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR COLUMBIA IS 97 DEGREES AND
FOR AUGUSTA IS 98 DEGREES. COULD VERY WELL BE NEAR THE RECORD AT
COLUMBIA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 011847
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
247 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL HAVE STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. HEATING AND
MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG BY 900 AM. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING IN THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THE NAM
ESPECIALLY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE
TROUGH...AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THERE IS MORE THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE. THE
SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOME
WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS MOS
INDICATE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE UPPER-
LEVEL FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. ALSO...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SLOW LIMITING
COVERAGE BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES
SHOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY. THE NAM HAS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -7. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AS WELL. WE FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE
RECENT COOL BIAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING TO REMAIN IN THE AREA...SOMEWHERE ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT REGION. STRONG HEATING ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW AND WEAK SURFACE SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD HELP INITIATE
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THE NAM
AND GFS MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT AND
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. IT WILL REMAIN HOT. LEANED JUST
ABOVE THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE IN
THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD BY
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUING AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BY LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS WESTWARD BY THE WEEKEND. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL STAY WITH THIS CURRENT TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. IFR FOG ALREADY OCCURRING AT
AGS. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL
PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS AND POSSIBLY OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z.
FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 17Z ONWARD REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUST A NOTE...THE RECORD HIGH FOR COLUMBIA TOMORROW SEPTEMBER 2ND
IS 98 DEGREES SET IN 1944. THE RECORD HIGH FOR AUGUSTA IS 101 SET
IN IN 1957. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR COLUMBIA IS 97 DEGREES AND
FOR AUGUSTA IS 98 DEGREES. COULD VERY WELL BE NEAR THE RECORD AT
COLUMBIA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KFFC 011838
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
238 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHORT TERM. WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EACH DAY. UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO
BE WEAK THOUGH TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL BY TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH GENERALLY CHANCE POPS TODAY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT IN PARTS OF EAST
BASED ON HI-RES CONSENSUS. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT WITH DECENT MLCAPES PROGGED ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
OF NEAR 2000-2500 J/KG.

WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AREA-WIDE TUESDAY
AS CANNOT PINPOINT AREA OF GREATER CHANCE. THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND
ON WHERE ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES RESIDE FROM ACTIVITY THE PREVIOUS
DAY.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

BAKER

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY TRY AND SNEAK THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD DIMINISH BY FRIDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT THE CWFA DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE SLOWED
THIS BOUNDARYS PROGRESSION DOWN.

OVERALL...NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. POPS WILL
MAINLY REMAIN DIURNAL IN NATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN CU THIS
AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MODELS DO ADVERTISE A MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH AT LEAST FEW-SCT
5-6KFT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-WNW BY 14-15Z...WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY 6KT OR LESS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TUESDAY WILL
BE 19-22Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          94  70  94  71 /  20  20  30  20
ATLANTA         91  73  91  73 /  30  20  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     86  65  86  65 /  30  20  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    92  70  92  69 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        95  74  94  74 /  30  20  30  20
GAINESVILLE     91  71  91  72 /  30  20  30  20
MACON           94  70  94  71 /  30  20  30  20
ROME            92  69  92  69 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  91  69  92  70 /  30  20  30  20
VIDALIA         93  73  93  74 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...31






000
FXUS62 KFFC 011838
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
238 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHORT TERM. WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EACH DAY. UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO
BE WEAK THOUGH TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL BY TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH GENERALLY CHANCE POPS TODAY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT IN PARTS OF EAST
BASED ON HI-RES CONSENSUS. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT WITH DECENT MLCAPES PROGGED ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
OF NEAR 2000-2500 J/KG.

WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AREA-WIDE TUESDAY
AS CANNOT PINPOINT AREA OF GREATER CHANCE. THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND
ON WHERE ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES RESIDE FROM ACTIVITY THE PREVIOUS
DAY.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

BAKER

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY TRY AND SNEAK THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD DIMINISH BY FRIDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT THE CWFA DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE SLOWED
THIS BOUNDARYS PROGRESSION DOWN.

OVERALL...NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. POPS WILL
MAINLY REMAIN DIURNAL IN NATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN CU THIS
AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MODELS DO ADVERTISE A MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH AT LEAST FEW-SCT
5-6KFT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-WNW BY 14-15Z...WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY 6KT OR LESS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TUESDAY WILL
BE 19-22Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          94  70  94  71 /  20  20  30  20
ATLANTA         91  73  91  73 /  30  20  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     86  65  86  65 /  30  20  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    92  70  92  69 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        95  74  94  74 /  30  20  30  20
GAINESVILLE     91  71  91  72 /  30  20  30  20
MACON           94  70  94  71 /  30  20  30  20
ROME            92  69  92  69 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  91  69  92  70 /  30  20  30  20
VIDALIA         93  73  93  74 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...31






000
FXUS62 KFFC 011838
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
238 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHORT TERM. WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EACH DAY. UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO
BE WEAK THOUGH TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL BY TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH GENERALLY CHANCE POPS TODAY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT IN PARTS OF EAST
BASED ON HI-RES CONSENSUS. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT WITH DECENT MLCAPES PROGGED ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
OF NEAR 2000-2500 J/KG.

WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AREA-WIDE TUESDAY
AS CANNOT PINPOINT AREA OF GREATER CHANCE. THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND
ON WHERE ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES RESIDE FROM ACTIVITY THE PREVIOUS
DAY.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

BAKER

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY TRY AND SNEAK THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD DIMINISH BY FRIDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT THE CWFA DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE SLOWED
THIS BOUNDARYS PROGRESSION DOWN.

OVERALL...NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. POPS WILL
MAINLY REMAIN DIURNAL IN NATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN CU THIS
AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MODELS DO ADVERTISE A MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH AT LEAST FEW-SCT
5-6KFT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-WNW BY 14-15Z...WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY 6KT OR LESS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TUESDAY WILL
BE 19-22Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          94  70  94  71 /  20  20  30  20
ATLANTA         91  73  91  73 /  30  20  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     86  65  86  65 /  30  20  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    92  70  92  69 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        95  74  94  74 /  30  20  30  20
GAINESVILLE     91  71  91  72 /  30  20  30  20
MACON           94  70  94  71 /  30  20  30  20
ROME            92  69  92  69 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  91  69  92  70 /  30  20  30  20
VIDALIA         93  73  93  74 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...31






000
FXUS62 KFFC 011838
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
238 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHORT TERM. WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EACH DAY. UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO
BE WEAK THOUGH TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL BY TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH GENERALLY CHANCE POPS TODAY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT IN PARTS OF EAST
BASED ON HI-RES CONSENSUS. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT WITH DECENT MLCAPES PROGGED ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
OF NEAR 2000-2500 J/KG.

WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AREA-WIDE TUESDAY
AS CANNOT PINPOINT AREA OF GREATER CHANCE. THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND
ON WHERE ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES RESIDE FROM ACTIVITY THE PREVIOUS
DAY.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

BAKER

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY TRY AND SNEAK THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD DIMINISH BY FRIDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT THE CWFA DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE SLOWED
THIS BOUNDARYS PROGRESSION DOWN.

OVERALL...NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. POPS WILL
MAINLY REMAIN DIURNAL IN NATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN CU THIS
AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MODELS DO ADVERTISE A MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH AT LEAST FEW-SCT
5-6KFT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-WNW BY 14-15Z...WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY 6KT OR LESS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TUESDAY WILL
BE 19-22Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          94  70  94  71 /  20  20  30  20
ATLANTA         91  73  91  73 /  30  20  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     86  65  86  65 /  30  20  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    92  70  92  69 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        95  74  94  74 /  30  20  30  20
GAINESVILLE     91  71  91  72 /  30  20  30  20
MACON           94  70  94  71 /  30  20  30  20
ROME            92  69  92  69 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  91  69  92  70 /  30  20  30  20
VIDALIA         93  73  93  74 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...31






000
FXUS62 KCHS 011754
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
154 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE PERSISTENT STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MEANDER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PEAK WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO LINGER OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH BECOMES MORE EVIDENT AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z CHARLESTON
SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE RECOVERED BACK TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...EVIDENCE OF INCREASING MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS. AS
TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND...DEWPOINTS WILL
ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE 102 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE.

IMPROVEMENTS TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES WITHIN SUCH WARM
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ALLOW INSTABILITY TO INCREASE COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING 3000 J/KG LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE INLAND-PROGRESSING SEABREEZE...THE LEE-SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH...AND EVIDENCE OF A MESO-LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
PROVIDE SEVERAL FORCING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...INDICATING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND INLAND OF THE
SEABREEZE...POSSIBLY BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
ZONES WHERE THE SEABREEZE INTERACTS WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SURFACE FEATURES. CONSIDERING DECENT INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS SOME
POCKETS OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR SUPPORTING DOWNDRAFT CAPES OVER 1000
J/KG...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...WEST AND NORTHWEST TIER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
MAIN HAZARD WITHIN ANY STORMS ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. IT SHOULD ALSO BE
NOTED THAT WEAK WIND FIELDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL PRODUCE
SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIVEN BY SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE
BOUNDARIES WELL INLAND WILL WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES AND NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZING
INFLUENCES GAIN INFLUENCE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY END BY MIDNIGHT
AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS. AREAS FURTHER EAST WILL LACK SYNOPTIC
FORCING AND BE UNDER SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. THERE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF ATLANTIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN RESPONSE TO THE FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC WARM WATERS. WHILE A FEW
OF THESE COULD ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE...THE FLOW VEERS AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE BULK OF
ACTIVITY OFFSHORE. IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THIN AND DISSIPATE
QUICKLY ENOUGH...THERE IS A RISK OF SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR
STRATUS INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY
WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN INLAND OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A LEE TROUGH WHICH MAY PROVIDE MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...THE HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS INLAND ZONES
BORDERING THE MIDLANDS. GIVEN THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW THOUGH A COUPLE
OF STRONG STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCUR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE OVERALL SETUP WILL NOT APPRECIABLY
CHANGE THROUGH THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST AND AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MOST
PROMINENT FEATURE. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AS WELL AS AN
INLAND TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ALIGNED INLAND OF
THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING THE BEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE THE AREA. NO
NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EVER EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT WOBBLES AROUND SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT SEPARATED BY A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING
AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION IT WOULD NECESSITATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE SPECIFIC MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL THUS CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS AT
BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AND MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SOME STRATUS AND/OR LIGHT FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
TUESDAY MORNING...YET PREFER TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC FORECAST
FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH AND A FAIRLY WEAK ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT. EVEN
WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL AVERAGE
NO MORE THAN 10 OR 12 KT AND SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
LIGHT NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL BUMP WINDS UP TO 15 KT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS DIRECTION BECOME MORE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN OCCUR DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
THE SAME AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST RESULTS IN A PERSISTENT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KT FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW POSSIBLE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE EACH MORNING
COULD PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 011754
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
154 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE PERSISTENT STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MEANDER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PEAK WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO LINGER OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...WHILE AN INLAND TROUGH BECOMES MORE EVIDENT AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z CHARLESTON
SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE RECOVERED BACK TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...EVIDENCE OF INCREASING MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS. AS
TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND...DEWPOINTS WILL
ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE 102 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE.

IMPROVEMENTS TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES WITHIN SUCH WARM
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ALLOW INSTABILITY TO INCREASE COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING 3000 J/KG LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE INLAND-PROGRESSING SEABREEZE...THE LEE-SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH...AND EVIDENCE OF A MESO-LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
PROVIDE SEVERAL FORCING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...INDICATING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND INLAND OF THE
SEABREEZE...POSSIBLY BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
ZONES WHERE THE SEABREEZE INTERACTS WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SURFACE FEATURES. CONSIDERING DECENT INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS SOME
POCKETS OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR SUPPORTING DOWNDRAFT CAPES OVER 1000
J/KG...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...WEST AND NORTHWEST TIER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
MAIN HAZARD WITHIN ANY STORMS ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. IT SHOULD ALSO BE
NOTED THAT WEAK WIND FIELDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL PRODUCE
SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIVEN BY SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE
BOUNDARIES WELL INLAND WILL WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES AND NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZING
INFLUENCES GAIN INFLUENCE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY END BY MIDNIGHT
AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS. AREAS FURTHER EAST WILL LACK SYNOPTIC
FORCING AND BE UNDER SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. THERE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF ATLANTIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN RESPONSE TO THE FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC WARM WATERS. WHILE A FEW
OF THESE COULD ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE...THE FLOW VEERS AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE BULK OF
ACTIVITY OFFSHORE. IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THIN AND DISSIPATE
QUICKLY ENOUGH...THERE IS A RISK OF SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR
STRATUS INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY
WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN INLAND OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A LEE TROUGH WHICH MAY PROVIDE MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...THE HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS INLAND ZONES
BORDERING THE MIDLANDS. GIVEN THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW THOUGH A COUPLE
OF STRONG STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCUR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE OVERALL SETUP WILL NOT APPRECIABLY
CHANGE THROUGH THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST AND AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MOST
PROMINENT FEATURE. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AS WELL AS AN
INLAND TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ALIGNED INLAND OF
THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING THE BEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE THE AREA. NO
NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EVER EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT WOBBLES AROUND SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT SEPARATED BY A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING
AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION IT WOULD NECESSITATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE SPECIFIC MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL THUS CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS AT
BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AND MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SOME STRATUS AND/OR LIGHT FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
TUESDAY MORNING...YET PREFER TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC FORECAST
FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH AND A FAIRLY WEAK ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT. EVEN
WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL AVERAGE
NO MORE THAN 10 OR 12 KT AND SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
LIGHT NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL BUMP WINDS UP TO 15 KT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS DIRECTION BECOME MORE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN OCCUR DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
THE SAME AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST RESULTS IN A PERSISTENT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KT FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW POSSIBLE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE EACH MORNING
COULD PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 011749
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
149 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING LESS CUMULUS COVERAGE
THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THIS MAY BE ATTRIBUTED TO HIGHER CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE MID 90S TODAY...SOME DRIER AIR NOTED AT 850MB...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.7 INCHES. ENHANCED CUMULUS AND
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BEING OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE
MOISTURE IS BETTER. CURRENTLY WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -3C TO -5C BUT LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO RISE AND ARE UP TO 7.5 C/KM.

SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CONVECTION
OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WHILE THE
LATEST 12Z SPC WRF RUN IS VERY SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z RUN SHOWING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS LATE
AFTERNOON AND DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND MERGING WITH SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER CSRA AND SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MIDLANDS WHILE KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE MORE FAVORABLE AREA
OF THE CSRA AND SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS 21Z-02Z. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND WEAK STORM MOTION WILL PROVIDE A
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING THREAT WHERE STORMS TRAIN
OR REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. EXPECT SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
AROUND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL AND EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN THE AREA. STRONG HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
ALSO...THE SURFACE FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. IT WILL
REMAIN HOT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHER CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR AT 850MB
HAS RESULTED IN A LATER START TO THE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BUT IT IS
UNDERWAY WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY STORMS IMPACTING
TERMINALS SO NOT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR FOG
AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB...FOG APPEARS LESS LIKELY AT CAE/CUB/DNL.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NEAR CALM
OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN AFTER 15Z TUESDAY...LESS
THAN 5 KNOTS.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC





000
FXUS62 KCAE 011749
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
149 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING LESS CUMULUS COVERAGE
THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THIS MAY BE ATTRIBUTED TO HIGHER CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE MID 90S TODAY...SOME DRIER AIR NOTED AT 850MB...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.7 INCHES. ENHANCED CUMULUS AND
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BEING OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE
MOISTURE IS BETTER. CURRENTLY WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -3C TO -5C BUT LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO RISE AND ARE UP TO 7.5 C/KM.

SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CONVECTION
OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WHILE THE
LATEST 12Z SPC WRF RUN IS VERY SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z RUN SHOWING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS LATE
AFTERNOON AND DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND MERGING WITH SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER CSRA AND SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MIDLANDS WHILE KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE MORE FAVORABLE AREA
OF THE CSRA AND SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS 21Z-02Z. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND WEAK STORM MOTION WILL PROVIDE A
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING THREAT WHERE STORMS TRAIN
OR REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. EXPECT SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
AROUND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL AND EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN THE AREA. STRONG HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
ALSO...THE SURFACE FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. IT WILL
REMAIN HOT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHER CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR AT 850MB
HAS RESULTED IN A LATER START TO THE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BUT IT IS
UNDERWAY WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY STORMS IMPACTING
TERMINALS SO NOT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR FOG
AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB...FOG APPEARS LESS LIKELY AT CAE/CUB/DNL.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NEAR CALM
OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN AFTER 15Z TUESDAY...LESS
THAN 5 KNOTS.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC




000
FXUS62 KCAE 011506 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1106 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH GENERALLY MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE EAST TOWARDS THE COAST IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MORNING MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A
PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM 1.5 INCHES IN
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS TO 1.8 INCHES IN THE EASTER MIDLANDS WITH A
POCKET OF DRY AIR AROUND 850MB IN THE UPSTATE INTO THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS.

DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION...THE NAM SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH...AND ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD SUPPORT LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE. THE SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON
BECOMING WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING...WHILE THE LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL OFFICE HI-RES WRF ARE VERY LIMITED WITH ANY CONVECTION.
WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS...CHANCE 30-40 PERCENT...IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SLOW STORM MOTION AND
RECOVERING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR
TWO OR LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO MODERATE INSTABILITIES.
TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY RISING AGAIN THROUGH THE UPPER 80S AT
THIS TIME AND WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S AGAIN TODAY. WENT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS SHOWN A COOL BIAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN THE AREA. STRONG HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
ALSO...THE SURFACE FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. IT WILL
REMAIN HOT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY IMPOSE
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE CONFIDENCE IN ANY STORMS IMPACTING
ANY TERMINAL IS LOW AND THEREFORE NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFTER 20Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC





000
FXUS62 KCAE 011506 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1106 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH GENERALLY MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE EAST TOWARDS THE COAST IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MORNING MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A
PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM 1.5 INCHES IN
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS TO 1.8 INCHES IN THE EASTER MIDLANDS WITH A
POCKET OF DRY AIR AROUND 850MB IN THE UPSTATE INTO THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS.

DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION...THE NAM SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH...AND ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD SUPPORT LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE. THE SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON
BECOMING WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING...WHILE THE LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL OFFICE HI-RES WRF ARE VERY LIMITED WITH ANY CONVECTION.
WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS...CHANCE 30-40 PERCENT...IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SLOW STORM MOTION AND
RECOVERING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR
TWO OR LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO MODERATE INSTABILITIES.
TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY RISING AGAIN THROUGH THE UPPER 80S AT
THIS TIME AND WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S AGAIN TODAY. WENT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS SHOWN A COOL BIAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN THE AREA. STRONG HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
ALSO...THE SURFACE FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. IT WILL
REMAIN HOT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY IMPOSE
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE CONFIDENCE IN ANY STORMS IMPACTING
ANY TERMINAL IS LOW AND THEREFORE NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFTER 20Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC





000
FXUS62 KCAE 011506 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1106 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH GENERALLY MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE EAST TOWARDS THE COAST IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MORNING MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A
PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM 1.5 INCHES IN
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS TO 1.8 INCHES IN THE EASTER MIDLANDS WITH A
POCKET OF DRY AIR AROUND 850MB IN THE UPSTATE INTO THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS.

DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION...THE NAM SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH...AND ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD SUPPORT LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE. THE SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON
BECOMING WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING...WHILE THE LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL OFFICE HI-RES WRF ARE VERY LIMITED WITH ANY CONVECTION.
WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS...CHANCE 30-40 PERCENT...IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SLOW STORM MOTION AND
RECOVERING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR
TWO OR LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO MODERATE INSTABILITIES.
TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY RISING AGAIN THROUGH THE UPPER 80S AT
THIS TIME AND WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S AGAIN TODAY. WENT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS SHOWN A COOL BIAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN THE AREA. STRONG HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
ALSO...THE SURFACE FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. IT WILL
REMAIN HOT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY IMPOSE
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE CONFIDENCE IN ANY STORMS IMPACTING
ANY TERMINAL IS LOW AND THEREFORE NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFTER 20Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC





000
FXUS62 KCAE 011506 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1106 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
REGARDING THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH GENERALLY MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE EAST TOWARDS THE COAST IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MORNING MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A
PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM 1.5 INCHES IN
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS TO 1.8 INCHES IN THE EASTER MIDLANDS WITH A
POCKET OF DRY AIR AROUND 850MB IN THE UPSTATE INTO THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS.

DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION...THE NAM SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH...AND ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD SUPPORT LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE. THE SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON
BECOMING WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING...WHILE THE LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL OFFICE HI-RES WRF ARE VERY LIMITED WITH ANY CONVECTION.
WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS...CHANCE 30-40 PERCENT...IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SLOW STORM MOTION AND
RECOVERING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR
TWO OR LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO MODERATE INSTABILITIES.
TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY RISING AGAIN THROUGH THE UPPER 80S AT
THIS TIME AND WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S AGAIN TODAY. WENT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS SHOWN A COOL BIAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN THE AREA. STRONG HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
ALSO...THE SURFACE FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. IT WILL
REMAIN HOT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY IMPOSE
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE CONFIDENCE IN ANY STORMS IMPACTING
ANY TERMINAL IS LOW AND THEREFORE NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFTER 20Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC





000
FXUS62 KCHS 011432
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1032 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE PERSISTENT STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MEANDER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY RISE
LATE THIS MORNING AND PEAK WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WHILE AN
INLAND TROUGH BECOMES MORE EVIDENT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HAVE RECOVERED BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES...EVIDENCE OF
INCREASING MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS. AS TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S INLAND...DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S...PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 102 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE.

IMPROVEMENTS TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES WITHIN SUCH WARM
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ALLOW INSTABILITY TO INCREASE COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING 3000 J/KG LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE INLAND-PROGRESSING SEABREEZE...THE LEE-SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH...AND EVIDENCE OF A MESO-LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
PROVIDE SEVERAL FORCING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE LATE
MORNING UPDATE...INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE...POSSIBLY BECOMING FOCUSED OVER
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE THE SEABREEZE INTERACTS WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE SURFACE FEATURES. CONSIDERING DECENT INSTABILITY...AS
WELL AS SOME POCKETS OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR SUPPORTING DOWNDRAFT
CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...WEST AND NORTHWEST TIER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
MAIN HAZARD WITHIN ANY STORMS ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. IT SHOULD ALSO BE
NOTED THAT WEAK WIND FIELDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL PRODUCE
SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIVEN BY SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE
BOUNDARIES WELL INLAND WILL WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES AND NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZING
INFLUENCES GAIN INFLUENCE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY END BY MIDNIGHT
AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS. AREAS FURTHER EAST WILL LACK SYNOPTIC
FORCING AND BE UNDER SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. THERE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF ATLANTIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN RESPONSE TO THE FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC WARM WATERS. WHILE A FEW
OF THESE COULD ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE...THE FLOW VEERS AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE BULK OF
ACTIVITY OFFSHORE. IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THIN AND DISSIPATE
QUICKLY ENOUGH...THERE IS A RISK OF SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR
STRATUS INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY
WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN INLAND OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A LEE TROUGH WHICH MAY PROVIDE MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...THE HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS INLAND ZONES
BORDERING THE MIDLANDS. GIVEN THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW THOUGH A COUPLE
OF STRONG STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCUR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE OVERALL SETUP WILL NOT APPRECIABLY
CHANGE THROUGH THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST AND AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MOST
PROMINENT FEATURE. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AS WELL AS AN
INLAND TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ALIGNED INLAND OF
THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING THE BEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE THE AREA. NO
NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EVER EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT WOBBLES AROUND SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT SEPARATED BY A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING
AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION IT WOULD NECESSITATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE MAINTAINED PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. ANY DIRECT IMPACTS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
IN ADVANCE OF THE SEA BREEZE AROUND 18 TO 21Z ARE TOO REMOTE FOR
INCLUSION OF ANY CB CLOUDS AND VCTS AT THIS STAGE. THERE IS A
SMALL RISK OF SOME STRATUS AND/OR LIGHT FOG LATE IN THE 12Z TAF
CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH AND A FAIRLY WEAK ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT. EVEN
WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL AVERAGE
NO MORE THAN 10 OR 12 KT AND SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. THE
MAIN NEAR TERM MARINE CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WATERSPOUTS TO DEVELOP THROUGH LATE MORNING ALONG A PERSISTENT
CUMULUS LINE CURRENTLY STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
OFFSHORE. HAVE ISSUED A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS
POTENTIAL THROUGH NOON. MARINERS ARE URGED TO NAVIGATE WITH EXTRA
CAUTION DUE TO HEAVY BOATING TRAFFIC TODAY.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
LIGHT NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL BUMP WINDS UP TO 15 KT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS DIRECTION BECOME MORE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN OCCUR DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
THE SAME AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST RESULTS IN A PERSISTENT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KT FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW POSSIBLE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE EACH MORNING
COULD PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 011432
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1032 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE PERSISTENT STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MEANDER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY RISE
LATE THIS MORNING AND PEAK WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WHILE AN
INLAND TROUGH BECOMES MORE EVIDENT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HAVE RECOVERED BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES...EVIDENCE OF
INCREASING MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS. AS TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S INLAND...DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S...PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 102 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE.

IMPROVEMENTS TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES WITHIN SUCH WARM
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ALLOW INSTABILITY TO INCREASE COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING 3000 J/KG LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE INLAND-PROGRESSING SEABREEZE...THE LEE-SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH...AND EVIDENCE OF A MESO-LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
PROVIDE SEVERAL FORCING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE LATE
MORNING UPDATE...INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE...POSSIBLY BECOMING FOCUSED OVER
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE THE SEABREEZE INTERACTS WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE SURFACE FEATURES. CONSIDERING DECENT INSTABILITY...AS
WELL AS SOME POCKETS OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR SUPPORTING DOWNDRAFT
CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...WEST AND NORTHWEST TIER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
MAIN HAZARD WITHIN ANY STORMS ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. IT SHOULD ALSO BE
NOTED THAT WEAK WIND FIELDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL PRODUCE
SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIVEN BY SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE
BOUNDARIES WELL INLAND WILL WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES AND NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZING
INFLUENCES GAIN INFLUENCE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY END BY MIDNIGHT
AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS. AREAS FURTHER EAST WILL LACK SYNOPTIC
FORCING AND BE UNDER SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. THERE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF ATLANTIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN RESPONSE TO THE FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC WARM WATERS. WHILE A FEW
OF THESE COULD ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE...THE FLOW VEERS AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE BULK OF
ACTIVITY OFFSHORE. IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THIN AND DISSIPATE
QUICKLY ENOUGH...THERE IS A RISK OF SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR
STRATUS INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY
WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN INLAND OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A LEE TROUGH WHICH MAY PROVIDE MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...THE HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS INLAND ZONES
BORDERING THE MIDLANDS. GIVEN THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW THOUGH A COUPLE
OF STRONG STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCUR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE OVERALL SETUP WILL NOT APPRECIABLY
CHANGE THROUGH THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST AND AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MOST
PROMINENT FEATURE. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AS WELL AS AN
INLAND TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ALIGNED INLAND OF
THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING THE BEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE THE AREA. NO
NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EVER EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT WOBBLES AROUND SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT SEPARATED BY A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING
AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION IT WOULD NECESSITATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE MAINTAINED PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. ANY DIRECT IMPACTS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
IN ADVANCE OF THE SEA BREEZE AROUND 18 TO 21Z ARE TOO REMOTE FOR
INCLUSION OF ANY CB CLOUDS AND VCTS AT THIS STAGE. THERE IS A
SMALL RISK OF SOME STRATUS AND/OR LIGHT FOG LATE IN THE 12Z TAF
CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH AND A FAIRLY WEAK ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT. EVEN
WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL AVERAGE
NO MORE THAN 10 OR 12 KT AND SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. THE
MAIN NEAR TERM MARINE CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WATERSPOUTS TO DEVELOP THROUGH LATE MORNING ALONG A PERSISTENT
CUMULUS LINE CURRENTLY STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
OFFSHORE. HAVE ISSUED A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS
POTENTIAL THROUGH NOON. MARINERS ARE URGED TO NAVIGATE WITH EXTRA
CAUTION DUE TO HEAVY BOATING TRAFFIC TODAY.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
LIGHT NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL BUMP WINDS UP TO 15 KT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS DIRECTION BECOME MORE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN OCCUR DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
THE SAME AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST RESULTS IN A PERSISTENT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KT FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW POSSIBLE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE EACH MORNING
COULD PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KFFC 011145
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
745 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHORT TERM. WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EACH DAY. UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO
BE WEAK THOUGH TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL BY TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH GENERALLY CHANCE POPS TODAY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT IN PARTS OF EAST
BASED ON HI-RES CONSENSUS. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT WITH DECENT MLCAPES PROGGED ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
OF NEAR 2000-2500 J/KG.

WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AREA-WIDE TUESDAY
AS CANNOT PINPOINT AREA OF GREATER CHANCE. THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND
ON WHERE ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES RESIDE FROM ACTIVITY THE PREVIOUS
DAY.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY TRY AND SNEAK THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD DIMINISH BY FRIDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT THE CWFA DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE SLOWED
THIS BOUNDARYS PROGRESSION DOWN.

OVERALL...NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. POPS WILL
MAINLY REMAIN DIURNAL IN NATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FORECAST. SOME SCT TO BKN CU FIELD
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 5-6 KFT ALONG WITH LINGERING MID
LEVEL SCT AROUND 15 KFT. MAIN CHANCE FOR -TSRA IN 21-01Z PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SO HAVE PROB30 GROUP FOR MOST SITES. WINDS
GENERALLY SW UNDER 7 KTS THEN LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON AFTERNOON PRECIP.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          94  70  94  71 /  20  20  30  20
ATLANTA         91  73  91  73 /  30  20  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     86  65  86  65 /  30  20  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    92  70  92  69 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        95  74  94  74 /  30  20  30  20
GAINESVILLE     91  71  91  72 /  30  20  30  20
MACON           94  70  94  71 /  30  20  30  20
ROME            92  69  92  69 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  91  69  92  70 /  30  20  30  20
VIDALIA         93  73  93  74 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KFFC 011145
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
745 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHORT TERM. WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EACH DAY. UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO
BE WEAK THOUGH TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL BY TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH GENERALLY CHANCE POPS TODAY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT IN PARTS OF EAST
BASED ON HI-RES CONSENSUS. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT WITH DECENT MLCAPES PROGGED ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
OF NEAR 2000-2500 J/KG.

WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AREA-WIDE TUESDAY
AS CANNOT PINPOINT AREA OF GREATER CHANCE. THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND
ON WHERE ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES RESIDE FROM ACTIVITY THE PREVIOUS
DAY.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY TRY AND SNEAK THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD DIMINISH BY FRIDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT THE CWFA DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE SLOWED
THIS BOUNDARYS PROGRESSION DOWN.

OVERALL...NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. POPS WILL
MAINLY REMAIN DIURNAL IN NATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FORECAST. SOME SCT TO BKN CU FIELD
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 5-6 KFT ALONG WITH LINGERING MID
LEVEL SCT AROUND 15 KFT. MAIN CHANCE FOR -TSRA IN 21-01Z PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SO HAVE PROB30 GROUP FOR MOST SITES. WINDS
GENERALLY SW UNDER 7 KTS THEN LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON AFTERNOON PRECIP.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          94  70  94  71 /  20  20  30  20
ATLANTA         91  73  91  73 /  30  20  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     86  65  86  65 /  30  20  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    92  70  92  69 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        95  74  94  74 /  30  20  30  20
GAINESVILLE     91  71  91  72 /  30  20  30  20
MACON           94  70  94  71 /  30  20  30  20
ROME            92  69  92  69 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  91  69  92  70 /  30  20  30  20
VIDALIA         93  73  93  74 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS62 KCHS 011128
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
728 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...WELCOME TO METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN! OF COURSE IT WON/T FEEL
AS SUCH WITH A CONTINUED SUMMER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL AGAIN PREVAIL...WITH THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO HAVE MIGRATED OVER SOUTHERN GA. CONCURRENTLY
AT THE SURFACE WE/LL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE...WHILE A LEE-SIDE TROUGH BECOMES BETTER
DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE MODELS ARE
PAINTING THE FORMATION OF A MESO-LOW ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH OVER
OR NEAR OUR SE GA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SO DESPITE SOME CAP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP RIDGING...THERE IS THE SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN FEATURES OF THE TROUGH AND MESO-LOW...PLUS THE TYPICAL
MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES THAT OCCUR DURING THE WARMER MONTHS OF THE
YEAR. THE CAP WILL LIMIT BOTH THE DEPTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH...BUT THE OTHER AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS AND A GOOD
THERMODYNAMIC ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY EARLY MORNING MORNING INDUCED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL STAY
OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THUS WE HAVE MAINTAINED A RAINFREE
FORECAST UNTIL ISOLATED ACTIVITY STARTS POPPING ON THE SEA BREEZE
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE US-17 CORRIDOR.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL THEN CLIMB DURING THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS AS BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS INITIATE IN RESPONSE TO THE VARIOUS SURFACE FEATURES.
SOME OF THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE QUITE
GOOD...WITH SBCAPES OF 3000 J/KG OR GREATER...DCAPES OVER 1000
J/KG WITH POCKETS OF DRY AIR ALOFT...LIFTED INDICES -6 TO -8C AND
TOTAL TOTALS THAT APPROACH 50. AS A RESULT WE FEEL COMPELLED TO
MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK OVER OUR SW...WEST AND NW TIER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...MOVEMENT WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER SLUGGISH. WITH PWATS UP NEAR 2 INCHES WE LOOK FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS IN SOME OF THE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.

PRIOR TO CONVECTION MESSING UP THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WE
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER HOT ONE TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 4-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER FIRST. MAINLY MID 90S INLAND
WITH UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER OR MID 70S WILL
GENERATE RATHER OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES OF 102-107 DEGREES FOR
ABOUT 3-5 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIVEN BY SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE
BOUNDARIES WELL INLAND WILL WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS CINH
INCREASES AND NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS. FURTHER EAST THERE IS THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THINGS DRY. LIKE RECENT NIGHTS THERE
WILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF ATLANTIC SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IN
RESPONSE TO THE FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC WARM WATERS. WHILE A FEW OF
THESE COULD ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE...THE FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE
SE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE BULK OF THEM
OFFSHORE. IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THIN OUR AND DISSIPATE
QUICKLY ENOUGH THERE IS A RISK OF SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR
STRATUS INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY
WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN INLAND OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A LEE TROUGH WHICH MAY PROVIDE MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...THE HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS INLAND ZONES
BORDERING THE MIDLANDS. GIVEN THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW THOUGH A COUPLE
OF STRONG STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCUR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE OVERALL SETUP WILL NOT APPRECIABLY
CHANGE THROUGH THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST AND AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MOST
PROMINENT FEATURE. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AS WELL AS AN
INLAND TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ALIGNED INLAND OF
THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING THE BEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE THE AREA. NO
NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EVER EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT WOBBLES AROUND SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT SEPARATED BY A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING
AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION IT WOULD NECESSITATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE HAVE MAINTAINED PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. ANY DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN
ADVANCE OF THE SEA BREEZE AROUND 18-21Z IS TOO REMOTE TO INCLUDE
ANY CB CLOUDS AND VCTS AT THIS STAGE. SMALL RISK OF SOME STRATUS
AND/OR LIGHT FOG LATE IN THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH AND A FAIRLY LAX ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT. EVEN
WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL AVERAGE
NO MORE THAN 10 OR 12 KT AND SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS...MOSTLY ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE AND DURING THIS MORNING. PLEASE NAVIGATE WITH EXTRA CARE
AS THERE COULD BE A LOT OF BOAT TRAFFIC DUE TO IT BEING A HOLIDAY
WITH GOOD WEATHER.

WATERSPOUTS...SEVERAL METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS POINT TOWARD
POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING. BUT DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY
WELL DEFINED BOUNDARIES FOR WHICH THE WATERSPOUTS CAN FORM
ALONG...WE HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
SMALL NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL BUMP WINDS UP AS HIGH AS NEAR 15 KT
FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS THEY CLOCK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL AGAIN OCCUR
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
THE SAME AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST RESULTS IN A PERSISTENT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KT FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW POSSIBLE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE EACH MORNING
COULD PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 011128
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
728 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...WELCOME TO METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN! OF COURSE IT WON/T FEEL
AS SUCH WITH A CONTINUED SUMMER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL AGAIN PREVAIL...WITH THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO HAVE MIGRATED OVER SOUTHERN GA. CONCURRENTLY
AT THE SURFACE WE/LL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE...WHILE A LEE-SIDE TROUGH BECOMES BETTER
DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE MODELS ARE
PAINTING THE FORMATION OF A MESO-LOW ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH OVER
OR NEAR OUR SE GA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SO DESPITE SOME CAP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP RIDGING...THERE IS THE SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN FEATURES OF THE TROUGH AND MESO-LOW...PLUS THE TYPICAL
MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES THAT OCCUR DURING THE WARMER MONTHS OF THE
YEAR. THE CAP WILL LIMIT BOTH THE DEPTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH...BUT THE OTHER AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS AND A GOOD
THERMODYNAMIC ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY EARLY MORNING MORNING INDUCED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL STAY
OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THUS WE HAVE MAINTAINED A RAINFREE
FORECAST UNTIL ISOLATED ACTIVITY STARTS POPPING ON THE SEA BREEZE
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE US-17 CORRIDOR.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL THEN CLIMB DURING THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS AS BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS INITIATE IN RESPONSE TO THE VARIOUS SURFACE FEATURES.
SOME OF THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE QUITE
GOOD...WITH SBCAPES OF 3000 J/KG OR GREATER...DCAPES OVER 1000
J/KG WITH POCKETS OF DRY AIR ALOFT...LIFTED INDICES -6 TO -8C AND
TOTAL TOTALS THAT APPROACH 50. AS A RESULT WE FEEL COMPELLED TO
MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK OVER OUR SW...WEST AND NW TIER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...MOVEMENT WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER SLUGGISH. WITH PWATS UP NEAR 2 INCHES WE LOOK FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS IN SOME OF THE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.

PRIOR TO CONVECTION MESSING UP THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WE
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER HOT ONE TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 4-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER FIRST. MAINLY MID 90S INLAND
WITH UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER OR MID 70S WILL
GENERATE RATHER OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES OF 102-107 DEGREES FOR
ABOUT 3-5 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIVEN BY SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE
BOUNDARIES WELL INLAND WILL WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS CINH
INCREASES AND NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS. FURTHER EAST THERE IS THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THINGS DRY. LIKE RECENT NIGHTS THERE
WILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF ATLANTIC SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IN
RESPONSE TO THE FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC WARM WATERS. WHILE A FEW OF
THESE COULD ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE...THE FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE
SE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE BULK OF THEM
OFFSHORE. IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THIN OUR AND DISSIPATE
QUICKLY ENOUGH THERE IS A RISK OF SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR
STRATUS INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY
WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN INLAND OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A LEE TROUGH WHICH MAY PROVIDE MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...THE HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS INLAND ZONES
BORDERING THE MIDLANDS. GIVEN THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW THOUGH A COUPLE
OF STRONG STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCUR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE OVERALL SETUP WILL NOT APPRECIABLY
CHANGE THROUGH THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST AND AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MOST
PROMINENT FEATURE. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AS WELL AS AN
INLAND TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ALIGNED INLAND OF
THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING THE BEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE THE AREA. NO
NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EVER EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT WOBBLES AROUND SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT SEPARATED BY A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING
AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION IT WOULD NECESSITATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE HAVE MAINTAINED PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. ANY DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN
ADVANCE OF THE SEA BREEZE AROUND 18-21Z IS TOO REMOTE TO INCLUDE
ANY CB CLOUDS AND VCTS AT THIS STAGE. SMALL RISK OF SOME STRATUS
AND/OR LIGHT FOG LATE IN THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH AND A FAIRLY LAX ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT. EVEN
WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL AVERAGE
NO MORE THAN 10 OR 12 KT AND SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS...MOSTLY ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE AND DURING THIS MORNING. PLEASE NAVIGATE WITH EXTRA CARE
AS THERE COULD BE A LOT OF BOAT TRAFFIC DUE TO IT BEING A HOLIDAY
WITH GOOD WEATHER.

WATERSPOUTS...SEVERAL METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS POINT TOWARD
POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING. BUT DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY
WELL DEFINED BOUNDARIES FOR WHICH THE WATERSPOUTS CAN FORM
ALONG...WE HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
SMALL NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL BUMP WINDS UP AS HIGH AS NEAR 15 KT
FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS THEY CLOCK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL AGAIN OCCUR
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
THE SAME AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST RESULTS IN A PERSISTENT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KT FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW POSSIBLE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE EACH MORNING
COULD PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 011128
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
728 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...WELCOME TO METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN! OF COURSE IT WON/T FEEL
AS SUCH WITH A CONTINUED SUMMER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL AGAIN PREVAIL...WITH THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO HAVE MIGRATED OVER SOUTHERN GA. CONCURRENTLY
AT THE SURFACE WE/LL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE...WHILE A LEE-SIDE TROUGH BECOMES BETTER
DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE MODELS ARE
PAINTING THE FORMATION OF A MESO-LOW ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH OVER
OR NEAR OUR SE GA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SO DESPITE SOME CAP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP RIDGING...THERE IS THE SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN FEATURES OF THE TROUGH AND MESO-LOW...PLUS THE TYPICAL
MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES THAT OCCUR DURING THE WARMER MONTHS OF THE
YEAR. THE CAP WILL LIMIT BOTH THE DEPTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH...BUT THE OTHER AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS AND A GOOD
THERMODYNAMIC ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY EARLY MORNING MORNING INDUCED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL STAY
OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THUS WE HAVE MAINTAINED A RAINFREE
FORECAST UNTIL ISOLATED ACTIVITY STARTS POPPING ON THE SEA BREEZE
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE US-17 CORRIDOR.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL THEN CLIMB DURING THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS AS BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS INITIATE IN RESPONSE TO THE VARIOUS SURFACE FEATURES.
SOME OF THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE QUITE
GOOD...WITH SBCAPES OF 3000 J/KG OR GREATER...DCAPES OVER 1000
J/KG WITH POCKETS OF DRY AIR ALOFT...LIFTED INDICES -6 TO -8C AND
TOTAL TOTALS THAT APPROACH 50. AS A RESULT WE FEEL COMPELLED TO
MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK OVER OUR SW...WEST AND NW TIER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...MOVEMENT WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER SLUGGISH. WITH PWATS UP NEAR 2 INCHES WE LOOK FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS IN SOME OF THE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.

PRIOR TO CONVECTION MESSING UP THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WE
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER HOT ONE TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 4-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER FIRST. MAINLY MID 90S INLAND
WITH UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER OR MID 70S WILL
GENERATE RATHER OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES OF 102-107 DEGREES FOR
ABOUT 3-5 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIVEN BY SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE
BOUNDARIES WELL INLAND WILL WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS CINH
INCREASES AND NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS. FURTHER EAST THERE IS THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THINGS DRY. LIKE RECENT NIGHTS THERE
WILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF ATLANTIC SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IN
RESPONSE TO THE FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC WARM WATERS. WHILE A FEW OF
THESE COULD ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE...THE FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE
SE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE BULK OF THEM
OFFSHORE. IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THIN OUR AND DISSIPATE
QUICKLY ENOUGH THERE IS A RISK OF SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR
STRATUS INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY
WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN INLAND OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A LEE TROUGH WHICH MAY PROVIDE MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...THE HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS INLAND ZONES
BORDERING THE MIDLANDS. GIVEN THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW THOUGH A COUPLE
OF STRONG STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCUR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE OVERALL SETUP WILL NOT APPRECIABLY
CHANGE THROUGH THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST AND AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MOST
PROMINENT FEATURE. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AS WELL AS AN
INLAND TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ALIGNED INLAND OF
THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING THE BEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE THE AREA. NO
NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EVER EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT WOBBLES AROUND SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT SEPARATED BY A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING
AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION IT WOULD NECESSITATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE HAVE MAINTAINED PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. ANY DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN
ADVANCE OF THE SEA BREEZE AROUND 18-21Z IS TOO REMOTE TO INCLUDE
ANY CB CLOUDS AND VCTS AT THIS STAGE. SMALL RISK OF SOME STRATUS
AND/OR LIGHT FOG LATE IN THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH AND A FAIRLY LAX ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT. EVEN
WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL AVERAGE
NO MORE THAN 10 OR 12 KT AND SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS...MOSTLY ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE AND DURING THIS MORNING. PLEASE NAVIGATE WITH EXTRA CARE
AS THERE COULD BE A LOT OF BOAT TRAFFIC DUE TO IT BEING A HOLIDAY
WITH GOOD WEATHER.

WATERSPOUTS...SEVERAL METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS POINT TOWARD
POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING. BUT DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY
WELL DEFINED BOUNDARIES FOR WHICH THE WATERSPOUTS CAN FORM
ALONG...WE HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
SMALL NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL BUMP WINDS UP AS HIGH AS NEAR 15 KT
FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS THEY CLOCK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL AGAIN OCCUR
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
THE SAME AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST RESULTS IN A PERSISTENT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KT FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW POSSIBLE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE EACH MORNING
COULD PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 011128
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
728 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...WELCOME TO METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN! OF COURSE IT WON/T FEEL
AS SUCH WITH A CONTINUED SUMMER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL AGAIN PREVAIL...WITH THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO HAVE MIGRATED OVER SOUTHERN GA. CONCURRENTLY
AT THE SURFACE WE/LL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE...WHILE A LEE-SIDE TROUGH BECOMES BETTER
DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE MODELS ARE
PAINTING THE FORMATION OF A MESO-LOW ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH OVER
OR NEAR OUR SE GA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SO DESPITE SOME CAP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP RIDGING...THERE IS THE SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN FEATURES OF THE TROUGH AND MESO-LOW...PLUS THE TYPICAL
MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES THAT OCCUR DURING THE WARMER MONTHS OF THE
YEAR. THE CAP WILL LIMIT BOTH THE DEPTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH...BUT THE OTHER AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS AND A GOOD
THERMODYNAMIC ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY EARLY MORNING MORNING INDUCED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL STAY
OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THUS WE HAVE MAINTAINED A RAINFREE
FORECAST UNTIL ISOLATED ACTIVITY STARTS POPPING ON THE SEA BREEZE
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE US-17 CORRIDOR.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL THEN CLIMB DURING THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS AS BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS INITIATE IN RESPONSE TO THE VARIOUS SURFACE FEATURES.
SOME OF THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE QUITE
GOOD...WITH SBCAPES OF 3000 J/KG OR GREATER...DCAPES OVER 1000
J/KG WITH POCKETS OF DRY AIR ALOFT...LIFTED INDICES -6 TO -8C AND
TOTAL TOTALS THAT APPROACH 50. AS A RESULT WE FEEL COMPELLED TO
MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK OVER OUR SW...WEST AND NW TIER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...MOVEMENT WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER SLUGGISH. WITH PWATS UP NEAR 2 INCHES WE LOOK FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS IN SOME OF THE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.

PRIOR TO CONVECTION MESSING UP THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WE
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER HOT ONE TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 4-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER FIRST. MAINLY MID 90S INLAND
WITH UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER OR MID 70S WILL
GENERATE RATHER OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES OF 102-107 DEGREES FOR
ABOUT 3-5 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIVEN BY SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE
BOUNDARIES WELL INLAND WILL WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS CINH
INCREASES AND NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS. FURTHER EAST THERE IS THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THINGS DRY. LIKE RECENT NIGHTS THERE
WILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF ATLANTIC SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IN
RESPONSE TO THE FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC WARM WATERS. WHILE A FEW OF
THESE COULD ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE...THE FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE
SE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE BULK OF THEM
OFFSHORE. IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THIN OUR AND DISSIPATE
QUICKLY ENOUGH THERE IS A RISK OF SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR
STRATUS INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY
WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN INLAND OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A LEE TROUGH WHICH MAY PROVIDE MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...THE HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS INLAND ZONES
BORDERING THE MIDLANDS. GIVEN THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW THOUGH A COUPLE
OF STRONG STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCUR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE OVERALL SETUP WILL NOT APPRECIABLY
CHANGE THROUGH THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST AND AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MOST
PROMINENT FEATURE. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AS WELL AS AN
INLAND TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ALIGNED INLAND OF
THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING THE BEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE THE AREA. NO
NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EVER EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT WOBBLES AROUND SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT SEPARATED BY A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING
AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION IT WOULD NECESSITATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE HAVE MAINTAINED PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. ANY DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN
ADVANCE OF THE SEA BREEZE AROUND 18-21Z IS TOO REMOTE TO INCLUDE
ANY CB CLOUDS AND VCTS AT THIS STAGE. SMALL RISK OF SOME STRATUS
AND/OR LIGHT FOG LATE IN THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH AND A FAIRLY LAX ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT. EVEN
WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL AVERAGE
NO MORE THAN 10 OR 12 KT AND SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS...MOSTLY ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE AND DURING THIS MORNING. PLEASE NAVIGATE WITH EXTRA CARE
AS THERE COULD BE A LOT OF BOAT TRAFFIC DUE TO IT BEING A HOLIDAY
WITH GOOD WEATHER.

WATERSPOUTS...SEVERAL METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS POINT TOWARD
POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING. BUT DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY
WELL DEFINED BOUNDARIES FOR WHICH THE WATERSPOUTS CAN FORM
ALONG...WE HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
SMALL NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL BUMP WINDS UP AS HIGH AS NEAR 15 KT
FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS THEY CLOCK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL AGAIN OCCUR
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
THE SAME AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST RESULTS IN A PERSISTENT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KT FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW POSSIBLE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE EACH MORNING
COULD PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 011052
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
652 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...WELCOME TO METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN! OF COURSE IT WON/T FEEL
AS SUCH WITH A CONTINUED SUMMER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL AGAIN PREVAIL...WITH THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO HAVE MIGRATED OVER SOUTHERN GA. CONCURRENTLY
AT THE SURFACE WE/LL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE...WHILE A LEE-SIDE TROUGH BECOMES BETTER
DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE MODELS ARE
PAINTING THE FORMATION OF A MESO-LOW ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH OVER
OR NEAR OUR SE GA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SO DESPITE SOME CAP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP RIDGING...THERE IS THE SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN FEATURES OF THE TROUGH AND MESO-LOW...PLUS THE TYPICAL
MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES THAT OCCUR DURING THE WARMER MONTHS OF THE
YEAR. THE CAP WILL LIMIT BOTH THE DEPTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH...BUT THE OTHER AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS AND A GOOD
THERMODYNAMIC ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY EARLY MORNING MORNING INDUCED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL STAY
OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THUS WE HAVE MAINTAINED A RAINFREE
FORECAST UNTIL ISOLATED ACTIVITY STARTS POPPING ON THE SEA BREEZE
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE US-17 CORRIDOR.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL THEN CLIMB DURING THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS AS BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS INITIATE IN RESPONSE TO THE VARIOUS SURFACE FEATURES.
SOME OF THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE QUITE
GOOD...WITH SBCAPES OF 3000 J/KG OR GREATER...DCAPES OVER 1000
J/KG WITH POCKETS OF DRY AIR ALOFT...LIFTED INDICES -6 TO -8C AND
TOTAL TOTALS THAT APPROACH 50. AS A RESULT WE FEEL COMPELLED TO
MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK OVER OUR SW...WEST AND NW TIER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...MOVEMENT WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER SLUGGISH. WITH PWATS UP NEAR 2 INCHES WE LOOK FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS IN SOME OF THE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.

PRIOR TO CONVECTION MESSING UP THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WE
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER HOT ONE TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 4-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER FIRST. MAINLY MID 90S INLAND
WITH UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER OR MID 70S WILL
GENERATE RATHER OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES OF 102-107 DEGREES FOR
ABOUT 3-5 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIVEN BY SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE
BOUNDARIES WELL INLAND WILL WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS CINH
INCREASES AND NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS. FURTHER EAST THERE IS THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THINGS DRY. LIKE RECENT NIGHTS THERE
WILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF ATLANTIC SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IN
RESPONSE TO THE FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC WARM WATERS. WHILE A FEW OF
THESE COULD ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE...THE FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE
SE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE BULK OF THEM
OFFSHORE. IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THIN OUR AND DISSIPATE
QUICKLY ENOUGH THERE IS A RISK OF SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR
STRATUS INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY
WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN INLAND OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A LEE TROUGH WHICH MAY PROVIDE MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...THE HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS INLAND ZONES
BORDERING THE MIDLANDS. GIVEN THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW THOUGH A COUPLE
OF STRONG STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCUR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE OVERALL SETUP WILL NOT APPRECIABLY
CHANGE THROUGH THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST AND AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MOST
PROMINENT FEATURE. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AS WELL AS AN
INLAND TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ALIGNED INLAND OF
THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING THE BEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE THE AREA. NO
NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EVER EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT WOBBLES AROUND SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT SEPARATED BY A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING
AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION IT WOULD NECESSITATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE WE HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY AT THE
TERMINALS...THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO STRATUS AND/OR FOG FROM ABOUT 10-14Z. SINCE WE/RE ONLY
FORECASTING ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE INLAND
PENETRATING SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND
18-20Z WE HAVE KEPT ANY CB CLOUDS AND VCTS OUT OF THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH AND A FAIRLY LAX ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT. EVEN
WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL AVERAGE
NO MORE THAN 10 OR 12 KT AND SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS...MOSTLY ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE AND DURING THIS MORNING. PLEASE NAVIGATE WITH EXTRA CARE
AS THERE COULD BE A LOT OF BOAT TRAFFIC DUE TO IT BEING A HOLIDAY
WITH GOOD WEATHER.

WATERSPOUTS...SEVERAL METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS POINT TOWARD
POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING. BUT DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY
WELL DEFINED BOUNDARIES FOR WHICH THE WATERSPOUTS CAN FORM
ALONG...WE HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
SMALL NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL BUMP WINDS UP AS HIGH AS NEAR 15 KT
FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS THEY CLOCK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL AGAIN OCCUR
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
THE SAME AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST RESULTS IN A PERSISTENT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KT FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW POSSIBLE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE EACH MORNING
COULD PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 011022
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
622 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL HAVE STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. HEATING AND
MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG BY 900 AM. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING IN THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE BUT THE NAM
ESPECIALLY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE
TROUGH...AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THERE IS MORE THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE. THE
SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING WIDESPREAD
DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE LOW
POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE UPPER-LEVEL
FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG ON THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. ALSO...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SLOW LIMITING COVERAGE
BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES SHOULD
SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY. THE NAM HAS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -7. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AS WELL. WE FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE
RECENT COOL BIAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN THE AREA. STRONG HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
ALSO...THE SURFACE FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. IT WILL
REMAIN HOT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER FROM PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY.
STILL A POTENTIAL FOR FOG UNTIL AROUND 13Z THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
AT AGS...BUT STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT OTHER TAF SITES AS WELL. FOG
AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS
FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
AT THE TAF SITES FROM 18Z ONWARD REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS
ATTM. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT AGS AND OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 011022
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
622 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL HAVE STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. HEATING AND
MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG BY 900 AM. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING IN THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE BUT THE NAM
ESPECIALLY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE
TROUGH...AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THERE IS MORE THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE. THE
SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING WIDESPREAD
DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE LOW
POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE UPPER-LEVEL
FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG ON THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. ALSO...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SLOW LIMITING COVERAGE
BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES SHOULD
SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY. THE NAM HAS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -7. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AS WELL. WE FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE
RECENT COOL BIAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN THE AREA. STRONG HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
ALSO...THE SURFACE FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. IT WILL
REMAIN HOT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER FROM PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY.
STILL A POTENTIAL FOR FOG UNTIL AROUND 13Z THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
AT AGS...BUT STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT OTHER TAF SITES AS WELL. FOG
AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS
FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
AT THE TAF SITES FROM 18Z ONWARD REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS
ATTM. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT AGS AND OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 010800
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
400 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...WELCOME TO METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN! OF COURSE IT WON/T FEEL
AS SUCH WITH A CONTINUED SUMMER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL AGAIN PREVAIL...WITH THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO HAVE MIGRATED OVER SOUTHERN GA. CONCURRENTLY
AT THE SURFACE WE/LL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE...WHILE A LEE-SIDE TROUGH BECOMES BETTER
DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE MODELS ARE
PAINTING THE FORMATION OF A MESO-LOW ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH OVER
OR NEAR OUR SE GA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SO DESPITE SOME CAP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP RIDGING...THERE IS THE SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN FEATURES OF THE TROUGH AND MESO-LOW...PLUS THE TYPICAL
MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES THAT OCCUR DURING THE WARMER MONTHS OF THE
YEAR. THE CAP WILL LIMIT BOTH THE DEPTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH...BUT THE OTHER AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS AND A GOOD
THERMODYNAMIC ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY EARLY MORNING MORNING INDUCED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD STAY
OVER THE ATLANTIC AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SW.
THUS WE HAVE MAINTAINED A RAINFREE FORECAST UNTIL ISOLATED
ACTIVITY STARTS POPPING ON THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE US-17 CORRIDOR. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS WILL THEN CLIMB DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS AS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS INITIATE IN
RESPONSE TO THE VARIOUS SURFACE FEATURES. SOME OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER PARAMETERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE QUITE GOOD...WITH ML CAPES
OF 3000 J/KG OR GREATER...DCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG WITH POCKETS OF
DRY AIR ALOFT...LIFTED INDICES -6 TO -8C AND TOTAL TOTALS THAT
APPROACH 50. AS A RESULT WE FEEL COMPELLED TO ADD MENTION OF
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SW...WEST AND NW TIER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...MOVEMENT WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER SLUGGISH. WITH PWATS UP NEAR 2 INCHES WE LOOK FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS IN SOME OF THE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.

PRIOR TO CONVECTION MESSING UP THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WE
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER HOT ONE TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 4-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER FIRST. MAINLY MID 90S INLAND
WITH UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER OR MID 70S WILL
GENERATE RATHER OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES OF 102-107 DEGREES FOR
ABOUT 3-5 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIVEN BY SYNOPTIC AND MESO-SCALE
BOUNDARIES WELL INLAND WILL WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING AS CINH
INCREASES AND NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AS THIS TRANSITION
OCCURS. FURTHER EAST THERE IS THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THINGS DRY. LIKE RECENT NIGHTS THERE
WILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF ATLANTIC SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IN
RESPONSE TO THE FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC WARM WATERS. WHILE A FEW OF
THESE COULD ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE...THE FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE
SE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE BULK OF THEM
OFFSHORE. IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THIN OUR AND DISSIPATE
QUICKLY ENOUGH THERE IS A RISK OF SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR
STRATUS INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY
WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN INLAND OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A LEE TROUGH WHICH MAY PROVIDE MORE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...THE HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS INLAND ZONES
BORDERING THE MIDLANDS. GIVEN THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW THOUGH A COUPLE
OF STRONG STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCUR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE OVERALL SETUP WILL NOT APPRECIABLY
CHANGE THROUGH THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PERSIST AND AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MOST
PROMINENT FEATURE. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AS WELL AS AN
INLAND TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ALIGNED INLAND OF
THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING THE BEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE THE AREA. NO
NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EVER EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS IT WOBBLES AROUND SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT SEPARATED BY A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE INDICATING
AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION IT WOULD NECESSITATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE WE HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY AT THE
TERMINALS...THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO STRATUS AND/OR FOG FROM ABOUT 10-14Z. SINCE WE/RE ONLY
FORECASTING ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE INLAND
PENETRATING SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND
18-20Z WE HAVE KEPT ANY CB CLOUDS AND VCTS OUT OF THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH AND A FAIRLY LAX ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT. EVEN
WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL AVERAGE
NO MORE THAN 10 OR 12 KT AND SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS...MOSTLY ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE AND DURING THIS MORNING.

WATERSPOUTS...THE FORMATION OF THE EARLY MORNING LAND BREEZE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND THEN THE TRANSITION TO THE LATE MORNING SEA
BREEZE COULD SPUR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE MARINE COMMUNITY
WITHIN A LIGHT WIND REGIME AND A DECENT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
IF CONFIDENCE RISES ENOUGH A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED WITH THE 7 AM FORECAST PACKAGE.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
SMALL NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL BUMP WINDS UP AS HIGH AS NEAR 15 KT
FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS THEY CLOCK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL AGAIN OCCUR
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
THE SAME AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST RESULTS IN A PERSISTENT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KT FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW POSSIBLE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL BE 1-3
FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE EACH MORNING
COULD PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCAE 010744
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
344 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL HAVE STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. HEATING AND
MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG BY 900 AM. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING IN THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE BUT THE NAM
ESPECIALLY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE
TROUGH...AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THERE IS MORE THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE. THE
SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING WIDESPREAD
DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE LOW
POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE UPPER-LEVEL
FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG ON THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. ALSO...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SLOW LIMITING COVERAGE
BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES SHOULD
SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY. THE NAM HAS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -7. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AS WELL. WE FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE
RECENT COOL BIAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN THE AREA. STRONG HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
ALSO...THE SURFACE FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. IT WILL
REMAIN HOT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. IFR FOG ALREADY OCCURRING AT
AGS. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL
PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS AND POSSIBLY OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z.
FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 17Z ONWARD REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 010744
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
344 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL HAVE STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. HEATING AND
MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG BY 900 AM. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING IN THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE BUT THE NAM
ESPECIALLY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE
TROUGH...AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THERE IS MORE THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE. THE
SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING WIDESPREAD
DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE LOW
POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE UPPER-LEVEL
FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG ON THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. ALSO...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SLOW LIMITING COVERAGE
BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES SHOULD
SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY. THE NAM HAS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -7. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AS WELL. WE FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE
RECENT COOL BIAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN THE AREA. STRONG HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
ALSO...THE SURFACE FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. IT WILL
REMAIN HOT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. IFR FOG ALREADY OCCURRING AT
AGS. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL
PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS AND POSSIBLY OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z.
FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 17Z ONWARD REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 010744
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
344 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL HAVE STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. HEATING AND
MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG BY 900 AM. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING IN THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE BUT THE NAM
ESPECIALLY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE
TROUGH...AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THERE IS MORE THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE. THE
SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING WIDESPREAD
DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE LOW
POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE UPPER-LEVEL
FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG ON THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. ALSO...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SLOW LIMITING COVERAGE
BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES SHOULD
SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY. THE NAM HAS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -7. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AS WELL. WE FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE
RECENT COOL BIAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN THE AREA. STRONG HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
ALSO...THE SURFACE FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. IT WILL
REMAIN HOT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. IFR FOG ALREADY OCCURRING AT
AGS. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL
PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS AND POSSIBLY OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z.
FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 17Z ONWARD REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 010744
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
344 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL HAVE STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. HEATING AND
MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FOG BY 900 AM. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING IN THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE BUT THE NAM
ESPECIALLY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE
TROUGH...AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
BUT THERE IS MORE THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE. THE
SPC WRF SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING WIDESPREAD
DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE LOW
POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE UPPER-LEVEL
FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG ON THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. ALSO...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SLOW LIMITING COVERAGE
BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING. WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES SHOULD
SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY. THE NAM HAS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -7. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AS WELL. WE FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE
RECENT COOL BIAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN THE AREA. STRONG HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE.
ALSO...THE SURFACE FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT. IT WILL
REMAIN HOT. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE
MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING. THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS
20 TO 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. IFR FOG ALREADY OCCURRING AT
AGS. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL
PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS AND POSSIBLY OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z.
FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 17Z ONWARD REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 010723
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
323 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHORT TERM. WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EACH DAY. UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO
BE WEAK THOUGH TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL BY TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH GENERALLY CHANCE POPS TODAY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT IN PARTS OF EAST
BASED ON HI-RES CONSENSUS. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT WITH DECENT MLCAPES PROGGED ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
OF NEAR 2000-2500 J/KG.

WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AREA-WIDE TUESDAY
AS CANNOT PINPOINT AREA OF GREATER CHANCE. THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND
ON WHERE ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES RESIDE FROM ACTIVITY THE PREVIOUS
DAY.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

BAKER


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY TRY AND SNEAK THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD DIMINISH BY FRIDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT THE CWFA DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE SLOWED
THIS BOUNDARYS PROGRESSION DOWN.

OVERALL...NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. POPS WILL
MAINLY REMAIN DIURNAL IN NATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS.

NLISTEMAA


&&

AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY THROUGH PERIOD
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS THIS MORNING IN 09-13Z PERIOD. LESS
CONFIDENCE OF THIS NEAR KATL BUT HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR OTHER
SITES. OTHERWISE GENERALLY SCT CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 5 KFT
AND ENOUGH CHANCE FOR -TSRA TO INCLUDE PROB30 FOR MOST SITES IN
20-24Z PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB THROUGH EARLY
MORNING THEN SW UNDER 7KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MORNING MVFR VSBY POTENTIAL AND AFTERNOON PRECIP.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          94  70  94  71 /  20  20  30  20
ATLANTA         91  73  91  73 /  30  20  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     86  65  86  65 /  30  20  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    92  70  92  69 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        95  74  94  74 /  30  20  30  20
GAINESVILLE     91  71  91  72 /  30  20  30  20
MACON           94  70  94  71 /  30  20  30  20
ROME            92  69  92  69 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  91  69  92  70 /  30  20  30  20
VIDALIA         93  73  93  74 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS62 KFFC 010723
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
323 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHORT TERM. WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EACH DAY. UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO
BE WEAK THOUGH TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL BY TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH GENERALLY CHANCE POPS TODAY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT IN PARTS OF EAST
BASED ON HI-RES CONSENSUS. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT WITH DECENT MLCAPES PROGGED ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
OF NEAR 2000-2500 J/KG.

WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AREA-WIDE TUESDAY
AS CANNOT PINPOINT AREA OF GREATER CHANCE. THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND
ON WHERE ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES RESIDE FROM ACTIVITY THE PREVIOUS
DAY.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

BAKER


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY TRY AND SNEAK THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD DIMINISH BY FRIDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT THE CWFA DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE SLOWED
THIS BOUNDARYS PROGRESSION DOWN.

OVERALL...NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. POPS WILL
MAINLY REMAIN DIURNAL IN NATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS.

NLISTEMAA


&&

AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY THROUGH PERIOD
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS THIS MORNING IN 09-13Z PERIOD. LESS
CONFIDENCE OF THIS NEAR KATL BUT HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR OTHER
SITES. OTHERWISE GENERALLY SCT CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 5 KFT
AND ENOUGH CHANCE FOR -TSRA TO INCLUDE PROB30 FOR MOST SITES IN
20-24Z PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB THROUGH EARLY
MORNING THEN SW UNDER 7KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MORNING MVFR VSBY POTENTIAL AND AFTERNOON PRECIP.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          94  70  94  71 /  20  20  30  20
ATLANTA         91  73  91  73 /  30  20  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     86  65  86  65 /  30  20  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    92  70  92  69 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        95  74  94  74 /  30  20  30  20
GAINESVILLE     91  71  91  72 /  30  20  30  20
MACON           94  70  94  71 /  30  20  30  20
ROME            92  69  92  69 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  91  69  92  70 /  30  20  30  20
VIDALIA         93  73  93  74 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KCAE 010654
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
254 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE SC/GA COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE MIDLANDS
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE AREA. IR SATELLITE SHOWED CLOUD TOP TEMPS WARMING. PWAT
STILL AT OR ABOVE 2.00 INCHES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

EXPECT SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. IFR FOG ALREADY OCCURRING AT
AGS. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL
PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS AND POSSIBLY OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z.
FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 17Z ONWARD REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 010552
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
152 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. REMAINING CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL GA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BDL

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ELONGATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELD ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY...AND WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY REMAINING TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE ALONG THE REMAINING BOUNDARY FROM
LAST NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THAT REGION...AND CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LESS COVERAGE TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY /AND EVEN LESS TOMORROW/...SO HAVE TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POPS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT /AFTER
10 PM/. A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ACTIVITY
LINGERING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA UNTIL 06Z OR SO...SO HAVE DELAYED
REMOVING POPS ENTIRELY UNTIL AFTER THAT TIME.

WITH MLCAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE AND DECENT DCAPE THE EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...THINK THAT THE MAIN CONCERN IN ANY
STRONG STORMS WILL BE DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
PWS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...CONTINUE TO BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...WHICH WILL ALLOW SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER LOCALIZED AREAS.

DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
BEING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ONCE AGAIN. HAVE A GRADIENT OF SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM NORTH GEORGIA INTO THE SE CWA. TRANSITION
TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND NO DEFINED SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
NO PARTICULAR AREA OF CONCERN.

HAVE GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

31

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH
DOMINANT RIDGE ALOFT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD LOOKS LIKE A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP PUSH THE RIDGE WESTWARD
AND A SURFACE FRONT DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER THE FRONT
MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

LONG TERM /415 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK LEE TROUGH
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHEAST GA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE
PROGGING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO DROP DOWN ACROSS NORTH GA BY
MID-WEEK. CONVECTION DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENHANCED ALONG THIS FEATURE
FOR NOW. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...PERSISTENCE IS
THE RULE WITH ISOLD/SCT POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY THROUGH PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS
THIS MORNING IN 09-13Z PERIOD. LESS CONFIDENCE OF THIS NEAR KATL
BUT HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR OTHER SITES. OTHERWISE GENERALLY SCT
CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 5 KFT AND ENOUGH CHANCE FOR -TSRA TO
INCLUDE PROB30 FOR MOST SITES IN 20-24Z PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY
CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB THROUGH EARLY MORNING THEN SW UNDER 7KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MORNING MVFR VSBY POTENTIAL AND AFTERNOON PRECIP.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          95  71  95  71 /  20  20  30  20
ATLANTA         91  74  91  72 /  30  20  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     86  65  86  65 /  30  20  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    91  71  92  69 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        95  74  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
GAINESVILLE     91  72  91  71 /  30  20  30  20
MACON           93  71  94  71 /  30  20  30  20
ROME            92  70  92  69 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  92  70  91  70 /  30  20  30  20
VIDALIA         93  74  94  74 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31/BDL
LONG TERM...NLISTEMAA/41
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS62 KFFC 010552
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
152 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. REMAINING CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL GA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BDL

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ELONGATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELD ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY...AND WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY REMAINING TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE ALONG THE REMAINING BOUNDARY FROM
LAST NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THAT REGION...AND CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LESS COVERAGE TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY /AND EVEN LESS TOMORROW/...SO HAVE TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POPS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT /AFTER
10 PM/. A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ACTIVITY
LINGERING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA UNTIL 06Z OR SO...SO HAVE DELAYED
REMOVING POPS ENTIRELY UNTIL AFTER THAT TIME.

WITH MLCAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE AND DECENT DCAPE THE EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...THINK THAT THE MAIN CONCERN IN ANY
STRONG STORMS WILL BE DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
PWS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...CONTINUE TO BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...WHICH WILL ALLOW SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER LOCALIZED AREAS.

DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
BEING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ONCE AGAIN. HAVE A GRADIENT OF SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM NORTH GEORGIA INTO THE SE CWA. TRANSITION
TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND NO DEFINED SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
NO PARTICULAR AREA OF CONCERN.

HAVE GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

31

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH
DOMINANT RIDGE ALOFT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD LOOKS LIKE A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP PUSH THE RIDGE WESTWARD
AND A SURFACE FRONT DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER THE FRONT
MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

LONG TERM /415 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK LEE TROUGH
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHEAST GA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE
PROGGING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO DROP DOWN ACROSS NORTH GA BY
MID-WEEK. CONVECTION DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENHANCED ALONG THIS FEATURE
FOR NOW. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...PERSISTENCE IS
THE RULE WITH ISOLD/SCT POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY THROUGH PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS
THIS MORNING IN 09-13Z PERIOD. LESS CONFIDENCE OF THIS NEAR KATL
BUT HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR OTHER SITES. OTHERWISE GENERALLY SCT
CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 5 KFT AND ENOUGH CHANCE FOR -TSRA TO
INCLUDE PROB30 FOR MOST SITES IN 20-24Z PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY
CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB THROUGH EARLY MORNING THEN SW UNDER 7KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MORNING MVFR VSBY POTENTIAL AND AFTERNOON PRECIP.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          95  71  95  71 /  20  20  30  20
ATLANTA         91  74  91  72 /  30  20  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     86  65  86  65 /  30  20  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    91  71  92  69 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        95  74  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
GAINESVILLE     91  72  91  71 /  30  20  30  20
MACON           93  71  94  71 /  30  20  30  20
ROME            92  70  92  69 /  30  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  92  70  91  70 /  30  20  30  20
VIDALIA         93  74  94  74 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31/BDL
LONG TERM...NLISTEMAA/41
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KCHS 010525
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
125 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LAND BASED CONVECTION HAS FOR THE MOST PART COME TO AN END...WITH
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION/COOLING TO PROMOTE LARGE SCALE CINH.
INSTEAD WE MIGHT SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
SKIRT THE IMMEDIATE SC COASTAL ZONES...BUT COVERAGE IS HELD TO 10
PERCENT. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN
OUT AND/ DISSIPATE WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE OF FOG...ALTHOUGH PATCHY LOW STRATUS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK. ON AVERAGE LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S ON THE ISLAND COMMUNITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE WE HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY AT THE
TERMINALS...THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO STRATUS AND/OR FOG FROM ABOUT 10-14Z. SINCE WE/RE ONLY
FORECASTING ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE INLAND
PENETRATING SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND
18-20Z WE HAVE KEPT ANY CB CLOUDS AND VCTS OUT OF THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE.
THERE WILL BE SOME SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 010525
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
125 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LAND BASED CONVECTION HAS FOR THE MOST PART COME TO AN END...WITH
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION/COOLING TO PROMOTE LARGE SCALE CINH.
INSTEAD WE MIGHT SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
SKIRT THE IMMEDIATE SC COASTAL ZONES...BUT COVERAGE IS HELD TO 10
PERCENT. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN
OUT AND/ DISSIPATE WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE OF FOG...ALTHOUGH PATCHY LOW STRATUS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK. ON AVERAGE LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S ON THE ISLAND COMMUNITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE WE HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY AT THE
TERMINALS...THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO STRATUS AND/OR FOG FROM ABOUT 10-14Z. SINCE WE/RE ONLY
FORECASTING ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE INLAND
PENETRATING SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND
18-20Z WE HAVE KEPT ANY CB CLOUDS AND VCTS OUT OF THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE.
THERE WILL BE SOME SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 010525
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
125 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LAND BASED CONVECTION HAS FOR THE MOST PART COME TO AN END...WITH
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION/COOLING TO PROMOTE LARGE SCALE CINH.
INSTEAD WE MIGHT SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
SKIRT THE IMMEDIATE SC COASTAL ZONES...BUT COVERAGE IS HELD TO 10
PERCENT. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN
OUT AND/ DISSIPATE WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE OF FOG...ALTHOUGH PATCHY LOW STRATUS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK. ON AVERAGE LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S ON THE ISLAND COMMUNITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE WE HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY AT THE
TERMINALS...THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO STRATUS AND/OR FOG FROM ABOUT 10-14Z. SINCE WE/RE ONLY
FORECASTING ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE INLAND
PENETRATING SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND
18-20Z WE HAVE KEPT ANY CB CLOUDS AND VCTS OUT OF THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE.
THERE WILL BE SOME SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 010525
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
125 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LAND BASED CONVECTION HAS FOR THE MOST PART COME TO AN END...WITH
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION/COOLING TO PROMOTE LARGE SCALE CINH.
INSTEAD WE MIGHT SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
SKIRT THE IMMEDIATE SC COASTAL ZONES...BUT COVERAGE IS HELD TO 10
PERCENT. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN
OUT AND/ DISSIPATE WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE OF FOG...ALTHOUGH PATCHY LOW STRATUS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK. ON AVERAGE LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S ON THE ISLAND COMMUNITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE WE HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY AT THE
TERMINALS...THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO STRATUS AND/OR FOG FROM ABOUT 10-14Z. SINCE WE/RE ONLY
FORECASTING ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE INLAND
PENETRATING SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND
18-20Z WE HAVE KEPT ANY CB CLOUDS AND VCTS OUT OF THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE.
THERE WILL BE SOME SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 010449
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1249 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LAND BASED CONVECTION HAS FOR THE MOST PART COME TO AN END...WITH
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION/COOLING TO PROMOTE LARGE SCALE CINH.
INSTEAD WE MIGHT SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
SKIRT THE IMMEDIATE SC COASTAL ZONES...BUT COVERAGE IS HELD TO 10
PERCENT. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN
OUT AND/ DISSIPATE WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE OF FOG...ALTHOUGH PATCHY LOW STRATUS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK. ON AVERAGE LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S ON THE ISLAND COMMUNITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE.
THERE WILL BE SOME SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 010449
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1249 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LAND BASED CONVECTION HAS FOR THE MOST PART COME TO AN END...WITH
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION/COOLING TO PROMOTE LARGE SCALE CINH.
INSTEAD WE MIGHT SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
SKIRT THE IMMEDIATE SC COASTAL ZONES...BUT COVERAGE IS HELD TO 10
PERCENT. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN
OUT AND/ DISSIPATE WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE OF FOG...ALTHOUGH PATCHY LOW STRATUS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK. ON AVERAGE LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S ON THE ISLAND COMMUNITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE.
THERE WILL BE SOME SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 010247
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1047 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE SC/GA COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE MIDLANDS
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS WAS DIMINISHING. IR SATELLITE SHOWED
CLOUD TOP TEMPS WARMING. PWAT STILL AT OR ABOVE 2.00 INCHES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

FEW SHOWERS REMAIN JUST EAST OF OGB WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
COVERED IN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. REMAINING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE TAF SITES AND DISSIPATE BY 05Z. POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND
STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS BECOMES TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION. FOG THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. ALL PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND
13Z. FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 010247
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1047 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE SC/GA COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE MIDLANDS
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS WAS DIMINISHING. IR SATELLITE SHOWED
CLOUD TOP TEMPS WARMING. PWAT STILL AT OR ABOVE 2.00 INCHES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

FEW SHOWERS REMAIN JUST EAST OF OGB WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
COVERED IN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. REMAINING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE TAF SITES AND DISSIPATE BY 05Z. POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND
STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS BECOMES TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION. FOG THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. ALL PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND
13Z. FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 010247
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1047 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE SC/GA COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE MIDLANDS
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS WAS DIMINISHING. IR SATELLITE SHOWED
CLOUD TOP TEMPS WARMING. PWAT STILL AT OR ABOVE 2.00 INCHES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

FEW SHOWERS REMAIN JUST EAST OF OGB WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
COVERED IN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. REMAINING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE TAF SITES AND DISSIPATE BY 05Z. POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND
STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS BECOMES TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION. FOG THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. ALL PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND
13Z. FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 010247
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1047 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE SC/GA COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE MIDLANDS
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS WAS DIMINISHING. IR SATELLITE SHOWED
CLOUD TOP TEMPS WARMING. PWAT STILL AT OR ABOVE 2.00 INCHES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

FEW SHOWERS REMAIN JUST EAST OF OGB WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
COVERED IN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. REMAINING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE TAF SITES AND DISSIPATE BY 05Z. POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND
STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS BECOMES TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION. FOG THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. ALL PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND
13Z. FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCHS 010232
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1032 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. MEANWHILE THE LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SC MIDLANDS INTO SOUTHEAST GA...WHERE A WEAK MESO-LOW
APPEARS TO BE SITUATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND NEAR THE MESO-LOW MANAGED TO
OVERCOME THE CAP AND RESULTED IN CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING
ACROSS FAR INLAND SOUTHEAST SC AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA. OTHER
THAN SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...THE CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED.
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT...OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL
BE SOME NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 010232
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1032 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. MEANWHILE THE LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SC MIDLANDS INTO SOUTHEAST GA...WHERE A WEAK MESO-LOW
APPEARS TO BE SITUATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND NEAR THE MESO-LOW MANAGED TO
OVERCOME THE CAP AND RESULTED IN CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING
ACROSS FAR INLAND SOUTHEAST SC AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA. OTHER
THAN SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...THE CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED.
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT...OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL
BE SOME NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 010232
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1032 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. MEANWHILE THE LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SC MIDLANDS INTO SOUTHEAST GA...WHERE A WEAK MESO-LOW
APPEARS TO BE SITUATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND NEAR THE MESO-LOW MANAGED TO
OVERCOME THE CAP AND RESULTED IN CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING
ACROSS FAR INLAND SOUTHEAST SC AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA. OTHER
THAN SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...THE CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED.
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT...OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL
BE SOME NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 010232
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1032 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. MEANWHILE THE LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SC MIDLANDS INTO SOUTHEAST GA...WHERE A WEAK MESO-LOW
APPEARS TO BE SITUATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND NEAR THE MESO-LOW MANAGED TO
OVERCOME THE CAP AND RESULTED IN CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING
ACROSS FAR INLAND SOUTHEAST SC AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA. OTHER
THAN SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...THE CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED.
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT...OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL
BE SOME NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR







000
FXUS62 KFFC 010140 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
940 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. REMAINING CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL GA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BDL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ELONGATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELD ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY...AND WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY REMAINING TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE ALONG THE REMAINING BOUNDARY FROM
LAST NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THAT REGION...AND CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LESS COVERAGE TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY /AND EVEN LESS TOMORROW/...SO HAVE TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POPS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT /AFTER
10 PM/. A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ACTIVITY
LINGERING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA UNTIL 06Z OR SO...SO HAVE DELAYED
REMOVING POPS ENTIRELY UNTIL AFTER THAT TIME.

WITH MLCAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE AND DECENT DCAPE THE EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...THINK THAT THE MAIN CONCERN IN ANY
STRONG STORMS WILL BE DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
PWS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...CONTINUE TO BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...WHICH WILL ALLOW SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER LOCALIZED AREAS.

DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
BEING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ONCE AGAIN. HAVE A GRADIENT OF SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM NORTH GEORGIA INTO THE SE CWA. TRANSITION
TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND NO DEFINED SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
NO PARTICULAR AREA OF CONCERN.

HAVE GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

31

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH
DOMINANT RIDGE ALOFT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD LOOKS LIKE A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP PUSH THE RIDGE WESTWARD
AND A SURFACE FRONT DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER THE FRONT
MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

LONG TERM /415 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK LEE TROUGH
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHEAST GA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE
PROGGING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO DROP DOWN ACROSS NORTH GA BY
MID-WEEK. CONVECTION DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENHANCED ALONG THIS FEATURE
FOR NOW. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...PERSISTENCE IS
THE RULE WITH ISOLD/SCT POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
REMAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF
IFR-MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS
BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  95  71  95 /  20  20  10  30
ATLANTA         73  91  74  91 /  10  20  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     64  86  65  86 /  20  20  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    69  91  71  92 /  20  20  10  30
COLUMBUS        74  95  74  93 /  20  20  10  30
GAINESVILLE     71  91  72  91 /  20  20  10  30
MACON           71  93  71  94 /  20  20  20  30
ROME            69  92  70  92 /  20  20  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  92  70  91 /  10  20  10  30
VIDALIA         74  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL







000
FXUS62 KFFC 010140 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
940 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. REMAINING CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL GA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BDL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ELONGATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELD ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY...AND WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY REMAINING TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE ALONG THE REMAINING BOUNDARY FROM
LAST NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THAT REGION...AND CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LESS COVERAGE TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY /AND EVEN LESS TOMORROW/...SO HAVE TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POPS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT /AFTER
10 PM/. A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ACTIVITY
LINGERING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA UNTIL 06Z OR SO...SO HAVE DELAYED
REMOVING POPS ENTIRELY UNTIL AFTER THAT TIME.

WITH MLCAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE AND DECENT DCAPE THE EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...THINK THAT THE MAIN CONCERN IN ANY
STRONG STORMS WILL BE DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
PWS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...CONTINUE TO BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...WHICH WILL ALLOW SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER LOCALIZED AREAS.

DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
BEING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ONCE AGAIN. HAVE A GRADIENT OF SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM NORTH GEORGIA INTO THE SE CWA. TRANSITION
TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND NO DEFINED SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
NO PARTICULAR AREA OF CONCERN.

HAVE GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

31

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH
DOMINANT RIDGE ALOFT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD LOOKS LIKE A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP PUSH THE RIDGE WESTWARD
AND A SURFACE FRONT DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER THE FRONT
MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

LONG TERM /415 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK LEE TROUGH
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHEAST GA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE
PROGGING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO DROP DOWN ACROSS NORTH GA BY
MID-WEEK. CONVECTION DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENHANCED ALONG THIS FEATURE
FOR NOW. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...PERSISTENCE IS
THE RULE WITH ISOLD/SCT POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
REMAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF
IFR-MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS
BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  95  71  95 /  20  20  10  30
ATLANTA         73  91  74  91 /  10  20  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     64  86  65  86 /  20  20  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    69  91  71  92 /  20  20  10  30
COLUMBUS        74  95  74  93 /  20  20  10  30
GAINESVILLE     71  91  72  91 /  20  20  10  30
MACON           71  93  71  94 /  20  20  20  30
ROME            69  92  70  92 /  20  20  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  92  70  91 /  10  20  10  30
VIDALIA         74  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL






000
FXUS62 KCHS 010017
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
817 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. MEANWHILE THE LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SC MIDLANDS INTO SOUTHEAST GA...WHERE A WEAK MESO-LOW
APPEARS TO BE SITUATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

SYNOPTIC FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND NEAR THE MESO-LOW
HAS MANAGED TO OVERCOME THE CAP AND CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS
EVENING ACROSS FAR INLAND SOUTHEAST SC AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND HOWEVER...AND
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS
STORMS EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. CLOSER TO THE COAST...THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING HAS KEPT COASTAL
AREAS RAIN-FREE AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COASTAL CORRIDOR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL
BE SOME NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR






000
FXUS62 KCHS 010017
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
817 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. MEANWHILE THE LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SC MIDLANDS INTO SOUTHEAST GA...WHERE A WEAK MESO-LOW
APPEARS TO BE SITUATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

SYNOPTIC FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND NEAR THE MESO-LOW
HAS MANAGED TO OVERCOME THE CAP AND CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS
EVENING ACROSS FAR INLAND SOUTHEAST SC AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND HOWEVER...AND
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS
STORMS EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. CLOSER TO THE COAST...THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING HAS KEPT COASTAL
AREAS RAIN-FREE AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COASTAL CORRIDOR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL
BE SOME NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCAE 312354
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
754 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING INDICATED THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
MIDLANDS COMBINED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WAS ALLOWING
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. LIFTED
INDICES RANGED FROM MINUS 3 TO MINUS 6 WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES UP
3000 J/KG. PWAT NEAR 2.00 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY
WITH CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GENERALLY MOVED EAST OF THE TAF
SITES WITH SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE VCNTY THROUGH 01Z...03Z OGB.
WITH THE RAINFALL CONFIDENCE IN FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS IS INCREASING. AS SUCH HAVE INCLUDED
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN 08Z
AND 13Z. POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR FOR FOG WILL BE LONGEVITY OF
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TONIGHT. FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX
OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 312354
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
754 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING INDICATED THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
MIDLANDS COMBINED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WAS ALLOWING
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. LIFTED
INDICES RANGED FROM MINUS 3 TO MINUS 6 WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES UP
3000 J/KG. PWAT NEAR 2.00 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY
WITH CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GENERALLY MOVED EAST OF THE TAF
SITES WITH SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE VCNTY THROUGH 01Z...03Z OGB.
WITH THE RAINFALL CONFIDENCE IN FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS IS INCREASING. AS SUCH HAVE INCLUDED
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN 08Z
AND 13Z. POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR FOR FOG WILL BE LONGEVITY OF
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TONIGHT. FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX
OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 312329
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
729 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING INDICATED THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
MIDLANDS COMBINED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WAS ALLOWING
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. LIFTED
INDICES RANGED FROM MINUS 3 TO MINUS 6 WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES UP
3000 J/KG. PWAT NEAR 2.00 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY
WITH CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS 18Z-02Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL WITH RADAR
INDICATING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE LINE
POSITIONED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THINK THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL LIMIT CONVECTION AND POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER SO NOT MENTIONING AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT GIVEN ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE DEBRIS CLOUDS
MAY IMPACT FOG POTENTIAL LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 312329
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
729 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING INDICATED THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
MIDLANDS COMBINED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WAS ALLOWING
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. LIFTED
INDICES RANGED FROM MINUS 3 TO MINUS 6 WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES UP
3000 J/KG. PWAT NEAR 2.00 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY
WITH CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS 18Z-02Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL WITH RADAR
INDICATING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE LINE
POSITIONED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THINK THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL LIMIT CONVECTION AND POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER SO NOT MENTIONING AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT GIVEN ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE DEBRIS CLOUDS
MAY IMPACT FOG POTENTIAL LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 312308 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
708 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ELONGATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELD ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY...AND WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY REMAINING TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE ALONG THE REMAINING BOUNDARY FROM
LAST NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THAT REGION...AND CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LESS COVERAGE TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY /AND EVEN LESS TOMORROW/...SO HAVE TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POPS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT /AFTER
10 PM/. A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ACTIVITY
LINGERING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA UNTIL 06Z OR SO...SO HAVE DELAYED
REMOVING POPS ENTIRELY UNTIL AFTER THAT TIME.

WITH MLCAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE AND DECENT DCAPE THE EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...THINK THAT THE MAIN CONCERN IN ANY
STRONG STORMS WILL BE DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
PWS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...CONTINUE TO BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...WHICH WILL ALLOW SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER LOCALIZED AREAS.

DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
BEING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ONCE AGAIN. HAVE A GRADIENT OF SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM NORTH GEORGIA INTO THE SE CWA. TRANSITION
TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND NO DEFINED SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
NO PARTICULAR AREA OF CONCERN.

HAVE GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

31

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH
DOMINANT RIDGE ALOFT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD LOOKS LIKE A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP PUSH THE RIDGE WESTWARD
AND A SURFACE FRONT DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER THE FRONT
MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

LONG TERM /415 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK LEE TROUGH
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHEAST GA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE
PROGGING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO DROP DOWN ACROSS NORTH GA BY
MID-WEEK. CONVECTION DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENHANCED ALONG THIS FEATURE
FOR NOW. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...PERSISTENCE IS
THE RULE WITH ISOLD/SCT POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
REMAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF
IFR-MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS
BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  95  71  95 /  20  20  10  30
ATLANTA         73  91  74  91 /  10  20  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     64  86  65  86 /  30  20  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    69  91  71  92 /  20  20  10  30
COLUMBUS        74  95  74  93 /  20  20  10  30
GAINESVILLE     71  91  72  91 /  20  20  10  30
MACON           71  93  71  94 /  20  20  20  30
ROME            69  92  70  92 /  30  20  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  92  70  91 /  10  20  10  30
VIDALIA         74  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BDL






000
FXUS62 KFFC 312308 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
708 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ELONGATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELD ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY...AND WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY REMAINING TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE ALONG THE REMAINING BOUNDARY FROM
LAST NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THAT REGION...AND CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LESS COVERAGE TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY /AND EVEN LESS TOMORROW/...SO HAVE TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POPS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT /AFTER
10 PM/. A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ACTIVITY
LINGERING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA UNTIL 06Z OR SO...SO HAVE DELAYED
REMOVING POPS ENTIRELY UNTIL AFTER THAT TIME.

WITH MLCAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE AND DECENT DCAPE THE EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...THINK THAT THE MAIN CONCERN IN ANY
STRONG STORMS WILL BE DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
PWS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...CONTINUE TO BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...WHICH WILL ALLOW SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER LOCALIZED AREAS.

DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
BEING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ONCE AGAIN. HAVE A GRADIENT OF SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM NORTH GEORGIA INTO THE SE CWA. TRANSITION
TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND NO DEFINED SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
NO PARTICULAR AREA OF CONCERN.

HAVE GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

31

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH
DOMINANT RIDGE ALOFT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD LOOKS LIKE A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP PUSH THE RIDGE WESTWARD
AND A SURFACE FRONT DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER THE FRONT
MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

LONG TERM /415 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK LEE TROUGH
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHEAST GA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE
PROGGING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO DROP DOWN ACROSS NORTH GA BY
MID-WEEK. CONVECTION DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENHANCED ALONG THIS FEATURE
FOR NOW. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...PERSISTENCE IS
THE RULE WITH ISOLD/SCT POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
REMAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF
IFR-MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS
BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  95  71  95 /  20  20  10  30
ATLANTA         73  91  74  91 /  10  20  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     64  86  65  86 /  30  20  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    69  91  71  92 /  20  20  10  30
COLUMBUS        74  95  74  93 /  20  20  10  30
GAINESVILLE     71  91  72  91 /  20  20  10  30
MACON           71  93  71  94 /  20  20  20  30
ROME            69  92  70  92 /  30  20  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  92  70  91 /  10  20  10  30
VIDALIA         74  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BDL





000
FXUS62 KFFC 311957
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
357 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ELONGATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELD ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY...AND WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY REMAINING TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE ALONG THE REMAINING BOUNDARY FROM
LAST NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THAT REGION...AND CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LESS COVERAGE TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY /AND EVEN LESS TOMORROW/...SO HAVE TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POPS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT /AFTER
10 PM/. A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ACTIVITY
LINGERING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA UNTIL 06Z OR SO...SO HAVE DELAYED
REMOVING POPS ENTIRELY UNTIL AFTER THAT TIME.

WITH MLCAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE AND DECENT DCAPE THE EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...THINK THAT THE MAIN CONCERN IN ANY
STRONG STORMS WILL BE DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
PWS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...CONTINUE TO BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...WHICH WILL ALLOW SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER LOCALIZED AREAS.

DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
BEING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ONCE AGAIN. HAVE A GRADIENT OF SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM NORTH GEORGIA INTO THE SE CWA. TRANSITION
TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND NO DEFINED SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
NO PARTICULAR AREA OF CONCERN.

HAVE GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.


31


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH
DOMINANT RIDGE ALOFT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD LOOKS LIKE A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP PUSH THE RIDGE WESTWARD
AND A SURFACE FRONT DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER THE FRONT
MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. PREVIIOUS
DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.


41

LONG TERM /415 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK LEE TROUGH
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHEAST GA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE
PROGGING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO DROP DOWN ACROSS NORTH GA BY
MID-WEEK. CONVECTION DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENHANCED ALONG THIS FEATURE
FOR NOW. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...PERSISTENCE IS
THE RULE WITH ISOLD/SCT POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR NORTH
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN IN THESE AREAS AND LARGELY AVOID THE TAF SITES. WINDS HAVE
FINALLY SHIFTED TO THE SW AND EXPECT SPEEDS TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN CU WILL CONTINUE...AND MODELS SUGGEST
THAT MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD PERSIST SOMEWHAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF AT LEAST SCT050 TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. VSBYS COULD BE RESTRICTED IN AREAS THAT
GET SIGNIFICANT OR LATE EVENING RAINFALL...BUT ON THE WHOLE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  95  71  95 /  20  20  10  30
ATLANTA         73  91  74  91 /  10  20  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     64  86  65  86 /  30  20  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    69  91  71  92 /  20  20  10  30
COLUMBUS        74  95  74  93 /  20  20  10  30
GAINESVILLE     71  91  72  91 /  20  20  10  30
MACON           71  93  71  94 /  20  20  20  30
ROME            69  92  70  92 /  30  20  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  92  70  91 /  10  20  10  30
VIDALIA         74  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 311957
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
357 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ELONGATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELD ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY...AND WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY REMAINING TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE ALONG THE REMAINING BOUNDARY FROM
LAST NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THAT REGION...AND CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LESS COVERAGE TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY /AND EVEN LESS TOMORROW/...SO HAVE TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POPS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT /AFTER
10 PM/. A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ACTIVITY
LINGERING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA UNTIL 06Z OR SO...SO HAVE DELAYED
REMOVING POPS ENTIRELY UNTIL AFTER THAT TIME.

WITH MLCAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE AND DECENT DCAPE THE EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...THINK THAT THE MAIN CONCERN IN ANY
STRONG STORMS WILL BE DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
PWS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...CONTINUE TO BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...WHICH WILL ALLOW SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER LOCALIZED AREAS.

DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
BEING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ONCE AGAIN. HAVE A GRADIENT OF SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM NORTH GEORGIA INTO THE SE CWA. TRANSITION
TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND NO DEFINED SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
NO PARTICULAR AREA OF CONCERN.

HAVE GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.


31


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH
DOMINANT RIDGE ALOFT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD LOOKS LIKE A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP PUSH THE RIDGE WESTWARD
AND A SURFACE FRONT DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER THE FRONT
MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. PREVIIOUS
DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.


41

LONG TERM /415 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK LEE TROUGH
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHEAST GA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE
PROGGING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO DROP DOWN ACROSS NORTH GA BY
MID-WEEK. CONVECTION DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENHANCED ALONG THIS FEATURE
FOR NOW. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...PERSISTENCE IS
THE RULE WITH ISOLD/SCT POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR NORTH
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN IN THESE AREAS AND LARGELY AVOID THE TAF SITES. WINDS HAVE
FINALLY SHIFTED TO THE SW AND EXPECT SPEEDS TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN CU WILL CONTINUE...AND MODELS SUGGEST
THAT MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD PERSIST SOMEWHAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF AT LEAST SCT050 TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. VSBYS COULD BE RESTRICTED IN AREAS THAT
GET SIGNIFICANT OR LATE EVENING RAINFALL...BUT ON THE WHOLE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  95  71  95 /  20  20  10  30
ATLANTA         73  91  74  91 /  10  20  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     64  86  65  86 /  30  20  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    69  91  71  92 /  20  20  10  30
COLUMBUS        74  95  74  93 /  20  20  10  30
GAINESVILLE     71  91  72  91 /  20  20  10  30
MACON           71  93  71  94 /  20  20  20  30
ROME            69  92  70  92 /  30  20  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  92  70  91 /  10  20  10  30
VIDALIA         74  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31






000
FXUS62 KCHS 311921
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
321 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON HAS DEVELOPED WELL
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR INLAND ZONES.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A MESO-LOW FEATURE TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT IS LIKELY PROVIDING SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE TO OVERCOME AN OTHERWISE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT UNDER DEEP
LAYER RIDGING. THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE SEABREEZE APPEARS TO BE STEADILY
DECREASING. MODEL SOLUTIONS INSTEAD SUGGEST THAT THE ONGOING
INLAND ACTIVITY WILL PROVIDE THE MOST COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET DUE TO ITS
NON-DIURNAL FORCING MECHANISM. WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY
HIGHEST. WILL ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
GEORGIA AREAS...HOWEVER SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS MAY END MENTION OF
RAIN EARLIER IF TRENDS DICTATE. THE BEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO THE MARINE ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME
UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS...PREFER TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. SOUTH
WINDS INITIATING WITH THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL
BE SOME NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR






000
FXUS62 KCAE 311839
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
239 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS IS RIGHT OVERHEAD EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST VIRGINA THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AXIS JUST UNDER 2 INCHES EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
AXIS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE CSRA. HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT STILL MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS. UPPER FLOW
REMAINS VERY WEAK WITH STORM MOTION GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS AND
CONVECTION HAS BEEN GOING UP AND RIGHT BACK DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
THEY RAIN THEMSELVES OUT. THINK SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW GIVEN
SUCH WARM AIR IN THE LOWER 20KFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES PUSHING
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY EXIST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
BUT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS 18Z-02Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL WITH RADAR
INDICATING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE LINE
POSITIONED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THINK THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL LIMIT CONVECTION AND POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER SO NOT MENTIONING AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT GIVEN ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE DEBRIS CLOUDS
MAY IMPACT FOG POTENTIAL LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 311839
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
239 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS IS RIGHT OVERHEAD EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST VIRGINA THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AXIS JUST UNDER 2 INCHES EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
AXIS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE CSRA. HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT STILL MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS. UPPER FLOW
REMAINS VERY WEAK WITH STORM MOTION GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS AND
CONVECTION HAS BEEN GOING UP AND RIGHT BACK DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
THEY RAIN THEMSELVES OUT. THINK SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW GIVEN
SUCH WARM AIR IN THE LOWER 20KFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES PUSHING
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY EXIST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
BUT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS 18Z-02Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL WITH RADAR
INDICATING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE LINE
POSITIONED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THINK THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL LIMIT CONVECTION AND POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER SO NOT MENTIONING AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT GIVEN ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE DEBRIS CLOUDS
MAY IMPACT FOG POTENTIAL LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KFFC 311810
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
210 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...
ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST OB TRENDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS. ISSUED SPS THRU
10 AM FOR NORTH GA AND WEST CENTRAL GA. OTHERWISE PESKY CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO LINGER ON IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND EAST. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WAVE OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD
AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA AND FURTHER ELONGATION OF THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE FIELD TODAY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROGGED
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH SLIGHT
ELSEWHERE. HI-RES SOLUTIONS VERIFIED DECENTLY ON RECENT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE /ALBEIT TIMING DISCREPANCIES/ AND HAVE TRENDED SUNDAY POPS
CLOSE TO THIS. OVERALL LOOKING TO BE LESS COVERAGE TODAY AND BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF MACON...BASED ON NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML-SBCAPE WITH A
BIT HIGHER DCAPE. STILL PRETTY DECENT PWATS BASED ON RECENT BUFR
SOUNDINGS AS WELL. MAIN THREATS THEREFORE LOOK TO BE STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

WEAK SFC RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH MONDAY
BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT GENERAL CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION. TOO DIFFICULT AT THE MOMENT TO FAVOR A PARTICULAR
PORTION OF THE CWA MUCH MORE THAN ANOTHER FOR DEVELOPMENT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL GUIDANCE BLEND RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL VALUES
TODAY THEN SLIGHT INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

BAKER

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK LEE TROUGH
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHEAST GA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE
PROGGING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO DROP DOWN ACROSS NORTH GA BY
MID-WEEK. CONVECTION DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENHANCED ALONG THIS FEATURE
FOR NOW. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...PERSISTENCE IS
THE RULE WITH ISOLD/SCT POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR NORTH
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN IN THESE AREAS AND LARGELY AVOID THE TAF SITES. WINDS HAVE
FINALLY SHIFTED TO THE SW AND EXPECT SPEEDS TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN CU WILL CONTINUE...AND MODELS SUGGEST
THAT MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD PERSIST SOMEWHAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF AT LEAST SCT050 TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. VSBYS COULD BE RESTRICTED IN AREAS THAT
GET SIGNIFICANT OR LATE EVENING RAINFALL...BUT ON THE WHOLE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  70  95  71 /  20  20  20  10
ATLANTA         90  73  91  74 /  20  10  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     85  64  86  65 /  40  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    90  69  91  71 /  30  20  20  10
COLUMBUS        93  74  95  74 /  20  20  20  10
GAINESVILLE     89  71  91  72 /  30  20  20  10
MACON           93  71  93  71 /  30  20  20  20
ROME            90  69  92  70 /  30  30  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  91  69  92  70 /  20  10  20  10
VIDALIA         95  74  93  74 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 311810
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
210 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...
ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST OB TRENDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS. ISSUED SPS THRU
10 AM FOR NORTH GA AND WEST CENTRAL GA. OTHERWISE PESKY CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO LINGER ON IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND EAST. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WAVE OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD
AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA AND FURTHER ELONGATION OF THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE FIELD TODAY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROGGED
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH SLIGHT
ELSEWHERE. HI-RES SOLUTIONS VERIFIED DECENTLY ON RECENT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE /ALBEIT TIMING DISCREPANCIES/ AND HAVE TRENDED SUNDAY POPS
CLOSE TO THIS. OVERALL LOOKING TO BE LESS COVERAGE TODAY AND BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF MACON...BASED ON NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML-SBCAPE WITH A
BIT HIGHER DCAPE. STILL PRETTY DECENT PWATS BASED ON RECENT BUFR
SOUNDINGS AS WELL. MAIN THREATS THEREFORE LOOK TO BE STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

WEAK SFC RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH MONDAY
BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT GENERAL CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION. TOO DIFFICULT AT THE MOMENT TO FAVOR A PARTICULAR
PORTION OF THE CWA MUCH MORE THAN ANOTHER FOR DEVELOPMENT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL GUIDANCE BLEND RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL VALUES
TODAY THEN SLIGHT INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

BAKER

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK LEE TROUGH
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHEAST GA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE
PROGGING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO DROP DOWN ACROSS NORTH GA BY
MID-WEEK. CONVECTION DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENHANCED ALONG THIS FEATURE
FOR NOW. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...PERSISTENCE IS
THE RULE WITH ISOLD/SCT POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR NORTH
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN IN THESE AREAS AND LARGELY AVOID THE TAF SITES. WINDS HAVE
FINALLY SHIFTED TO THE SW AND EXPECT SPEEDS TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN CU WILL CONTINUE...AND MODELS SUGGEST
THAT MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD PERSIST SOMEWHAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF AT LEAST SCT050 TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. VSBYS COULD BE RESTRICTED IN AREAS THAT
GET SIGNIFICANT OR LATE EVENING RAINFALL...BUT ON THE WHOLE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  70  95  71 /  20  20  20  10
ATLANTA         90  73  91  74 /  20  10  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     85  64  86  65 /  40  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    90  69  91  71 /  30  20  20  10
COLUMBUS        93  74  95  74 /  20  20  20  10
GAINESVILLE     89  71  91  72 /  30  20  20  10
MACON           93  71  93  71 /  30  20  20  20
ROME            90  69  92  70 /  30  30  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  91  69  92  70 /  20  10  20  10
VIDALIA         95  74  93  74 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31






000
FXUS62 KCHS 311749
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
149 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
SEABREEZE IN NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE
MAIN ACTIVITY BY 1 PM IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE MESOANALYSIS HINTS AT A MESO-LOW WITHIN BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THESE LATEST TRENDS FOLLOW FORECAST RAIN
CHANCES WELL...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN A STRONG INFLUENCE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND THUS ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
RISE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE. CONSIDERING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 TO
103 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY COULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND KEEP
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO INITIATE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER
AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S INLAND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME
UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS...PREFER TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. SOUTH
WINDS INITIATING WITH THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW 10 KT
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN SEABREEZE CIRCULATION.
MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF 2 TO 3 FT SWELLS.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER A CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL BE
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 311749
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
149 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
SEABREEZE IN NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE
MAIN ACTIVITY BY 1 PM IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE MESOANALYSIS HINTS AT A MESO-LOW WITHIN BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THESE LATEST TRENDS FOLLOW FORECAST RAIN
CHANCES WELL...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN A STRONG INFLUENCE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND THUS ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
RISE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE. CONSIDERING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 TO
103 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY COULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND KEEP
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO INITIATE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER
AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S INLAND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME
UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS...PREFER TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. SOUTH
WINDS INITIATING WITH THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW 10 KT
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN SEABREEZE CIRCULATION.
MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF 2 TO 3 FT SWELLS.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER A CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL BE
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 311504
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1104 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI
COUNTY REGION AND DOWN THE COAST INTO THE SAVANNAH METRO AREA BY
LATE MORNING...EVIDENCE OF THE TREND FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY BOTH THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE...EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING FARTHER INLAND AND BECOMING A BIT MORE CONCENTRATED
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN A
STRONG INFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND THUS ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. CONSIDERING HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS
AFTERNOON...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 TO 103 DEGREES IN
MANY LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY COULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND KEEP
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO INITIATE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER
AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S INLAND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME
UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE RISK FOR ANY SHRA OR TSRA AT THE AIRFIELDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN JUST INLAND OF THE TAF SITES. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS. AS A
RESULT...ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND
KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY GENTLE SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. MUCH OF THE WAVE
ENERGY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF 2 TO 3 FT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE
BY THE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PLUS
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER A CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL BE
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 311504
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1104 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI
COUNTY REGION AND DOWN THE COAST INTO THE SAVANNAH METRO AREA BY
LATE MORNING...EVIDENCE OF THE TREND FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY BOTH THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE...EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING FARTHER INLAND AND BECOMING A BIT MORE CONCENTRATED
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN A
STRONG INFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND THUS ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. CONSIDERING HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS
AFTERNOON...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 TO 103 DEGREES IN
MANY LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY COULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND KEEP
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO INITIATE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER
AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S INLAND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME
UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE RISK FOR ANY SHRA OR TSRA AT THE AIRFIELDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN JUST INLAND OF THE TAF SITES. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS. AS A
RESULT...ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND
KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY GENTLE SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. MUCH OF THE WAVE
ENERGY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF 2 TO 3 FT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE
BY THE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PLUS
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER A CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL BE
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 311504
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1104 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI
COUNTY REGION AND DOWN THE COAST INTO THE SAVANNAH METRO AREA BY
LATE MORNING...EVIDENCE OF THE TREND FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY BOTH THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE...EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING FARTHER INLAND AND BECOMING A BIT MORE CONCENTRATED
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN A
STRONG INFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND THUS ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. CONSIDERING HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS
AFTERNOON...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 TO 103 DEGREES IN
MANY LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY COULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND KEEP
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO INITIATE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER
AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S INLAND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME
UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE RISK FOR ANY SHRA OR TSRA AT THE AIRFIELDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN JUST INLAND OF THE TAF SITES. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS. AS A
RESULT...ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND
KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY GENTLE SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. MUCH OF THE WAVE
ENERGY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF 2 TO 3 FT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE
BY THE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PLUS
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER A CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL BE
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 311504
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1104 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI
COUNTY REGION AND DOWN THE COAST INTO THE SAVANNAH METRO AREA BY
LATE MORNING...EVIDENCE OF THE TREND FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY BOTH THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE...EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING FARTHER INLAND AND BECOMING A BIT MORE CONCENTRATED
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN A
STRONG INFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND THUS ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. CONSIDERING HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS
AFTERNOON...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 TO 103 DEGREES IN
MANY LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY COULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND KEEP
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO INITIATE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER
AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S INLAND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME
UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE RISK FOR ANY SHRA OR TSRA AT THE AIRFIELDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN JUST INLAND OF THE TAF SITES. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS. AS A
RESULT...ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND
KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY GENTLE SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. MUCH OF THE WAVE
ENERGY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF 2 TO 3 FT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE
BY THE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PLUS
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER A CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL BE
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 311437 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1037 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE A NOTICEABLE MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL AGAIN PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 500MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AROUND -5C AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +9C. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 2 INCHES WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY TODAY. HI-RES MODELS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
SOME CHANCES IN THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AS WELL WITH CHANNELED
VORTICITY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH BROUGHT EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW DISSIPATED. WILL KEEP POPS AT 20/30 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.

MOS GUIDANCE HAS HAD A COOL BIAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND THEREFORE
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST OF MID 90S FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE STILL
HANGS IN STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY
MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORNING MVFR STRATOCUMULUS HAS DISSIPATED AND EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
PERSIST OVER THE AREA. CONVECTION TO BE LIMITED AGAIN TODAY AND
ISOLATED NATURE OF CONVECTION WILL PRECLUDE MENTION FROM THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 311437 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1037 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE A NOTICEABLE MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL AGAIN PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 500MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AROUND -5C AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +9C. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 2 INCHES WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY TODAY. HI-RES MODELS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
SOME CHANCES IN THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AS WELL WITH CHANNELED
VORTICITY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH BROUGHT EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW DISSIPATED. WILL KEEP POPS AT 20/30 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.

MOS GUIDANCE HAS HAD A COOL BIAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND THEREFORE
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST OF MID 90S FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE STILL
HANGS IN STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY
MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORNING MVFR STRATOCUMULUS HAS DISSIPATED AND EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
PERSIST OVER THE AREA. CONVECTION TO BE LIMITED AGAIN TODAY AND
ISOLATED NATURE OF CONVECTION WILL PRECLUDE MENTION FROM THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 311437 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1037 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE A NOTICEABLE MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL AGAIN PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 500MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AROUND -5C AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +9C. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 2 INCHES WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY TODAY. HI-RES MODELS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
SOME CHANCES IN THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AS WELL WITH CHANNELED
VORTICITY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH BROUGHT EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW DISSIPATED. WILL KEEP POPS AT 20/30 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.

MOS GUIDANCE HAS HAD A COOL BIAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND THEREFORE
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST OF MID 90S FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE STILL
HANGS IN STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY
MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORNING MVFR STRATOCUMULUS HAS DISSIPATED AND EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
PERSIST OVER THE AREA. CONVECTION TO BE LIMITED AGAIN TODAY AND
ISOLATED NATURE OF CONVECTION WILL PRECLUDE MENTION FROM THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 311437 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1037 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE A NOTICEABLE MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL AGAIN PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 500MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AROUND -5C AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +9C. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 2 INCHES WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY TODAY. HI-RES MODELS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
SOME CHANCES IN THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AS WELL WITH CHANNELED
VORTICITY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH BROUGHT EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW DISSIPATED. WILL KEEP POPS AT 20/30 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.

MOS GUIDANCE HAS HAD A COOL BIAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND THEREFORE
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST OF MID 90S FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE STILL
HANGS IN STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY
MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORNING MVFR STRATOCUMULUS HAS DISSIPATED AND EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
PERSIST OVER THE AREA. CONVECTION TO BE LIMITED AGAIN TODAY AND
ISOLATED NATURE OF CONVECTION WILL PRECLUDE MENTION FROM THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KFFC 311154
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
754 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014


.UPDATE...
ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST OB TRENDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS. ISSUED SPS THRU
10 AM FOR NORTH GA AND WEST CENTRAL GA. OTHERWISE PESKY CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO LINGER ON IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND EAST. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WAVE OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD
AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA AND FURTHER ELONGATION OF THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE FIELD TODAY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROGGED
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH SLIGHT
ELSEWHERE. HI-RES SOLUTIONS VERIFIED DECENTLY ON RECENT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE /ALBEIT TIMING DISCREPANCIES/ AND HAVE TRENDED SUNDAY POPS
CLOSE TO THIS. OVERALL LOOKING TO BE LESS COVERAGE TODAY AND BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF MACON...BASED ON NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML-SBCAPE WITH A
BIT HIGHER DCAPE. STILL PRETTY DECENT PWATS BASED ON RECENT BUFR
SOUNDINGS AS WELL. MAIN THREATS THEREFORE LOOK TO BE STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

WEAK SFC RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH MONDAY
BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT GENERAL CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION. TOO DIFFICULT AT THE MOMENT TO FAVOR A PARTICULAR
PORTION OF THE CWA MUCH MORE THAN ANOTHER FOR DEVELOPMENT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL GUIDANCE BLEND RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL VALUES
TODAY THEN SLIGHT INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK LEE TROUGH
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHEAST GA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE
PROGGING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO DROP DOWN ACROSS NORTH GA BY
MID-WEEK. CONVECTION DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENHANCED ALONG THIS FEATURE
FOR NOW. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...PERSISTENCE IS
THE RULE WITH ISOLD/SCT POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
INITIAL LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE LIFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER RANGE.
HAVE HANDLED WITH TEMPO FOR MOST SITES THRU 13Z. SHOULD SCATTER
OUT AND LIFT QUICKLY AND SCT 5-6 KFT BY 18Z IS GOOD BET. COULD GET
BKN FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THERE IS BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
PRECIP. CHANCE TOO LOW NEAR KATL TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAF BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOMETHING ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BECOME SW AT 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MORNING CIG/VSBY ENDING AND AFTERNOON PRECIP CHANCE.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  70  95  74 /  20  20  30  10
ATLANTA         90  73  92  77 /  20  10  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     85  64  87  70 /  40  30  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    90  69  92  74 /  30  20  30  10
COLUMBUS        93  74  94  78 /  20  20  30  10
GAINESVILLE     89  71  91  76 /  30  20  30  10
MACON           93  71  95  75 /  30  20  30  10
ROME            90  68  93  74 /  30  30  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  91  69  92  73 /  20  10  30  10
VIDALIA         95  74  94  75 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KFFC 311154
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
754 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014


.UPDATE...
ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST OB TRENDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS. ISSUED SPS THRU
10 AM FOR NORTH GA AND WEST CENTRAL GA. OTHERWISE PESKY CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO LINGER ON IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND EAST. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WAVE OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD
AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA AND FURTHER ELONGATION OF THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE FIELD TODAY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROGGED
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH SLIGHT
ELSEWHERE. HI-RES SOLUTIONS VERIFIED DECENTLY ON RECENT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE /ALBEIT TIMING DISCREPANCIES/ AND HAVE TRENDED SUNDAY POPS
CLOSE TO THIS. OVERALL LOOKING TO BE LESS COVERAGE TODAY AND BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF MACON...BASED ON NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML-SBCAPE WITH A
BIT HIGHER DCAPE. STILL PRETTY DECENT PWATS BASED ON RECENT BUFR
SOUNDINGS AS WELL. MAIN THREATS THEREFORE LOOK TO BE STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

WEAK SFC RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH MONDAY
BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT GENERAL CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION. TOO DIFFICULT AT THE MOMENT TO FAVOR A PARTICULAR
PORTION OF THE CWA MUCH MORE THAN ANOTHER FOR DEVELOPMENT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL GUIDANCE BLEND RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL VALUES
TODAY THEN SLIGHT INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK LEE TROUGH
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHEAST GA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE
PROGGING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO DROP DOWN ACROSS NORTH GA BY
MID-WEEK. CONVECTION DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENHANCED ALONG THIS FEATURE
FOR NOW. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...PERSISTENCE IS
THE RULE WITH ISOLD/SCT POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
INITIAL LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE LIFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER RANGE.
HAVE HANDLED WITH TEMPO FOR MOST SITES THRU 13Z. SHOULD SCATTER
OUT AND LIFT QUICKLY AND SCT 5-6 KFT BY 18Z IS GOOD BET. COULD GET
BKN FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THERE IS BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
PRECIP. CHANCE TOO LOW NEAR KATL TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAF BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOMETHING ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BECOME SW AT 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MORNING CIG/VSBY ENDING AND AFTERNOON PRECIP CHANCE.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  70  95  74 /  20  20  30  10
ATLANTA         90  73  92  77 /  20  10  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     85  64  87  70 /  40  30  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    90  69  92  74 /  30  20  30  10
COLUMBUS        93  74  94  78 /  20  20  30  10
GAINESVILLE     89  71  91  76 /  30  20  30  10
MACON           93  71  95  75 /  30  20  30  10
ROME            90  68  93  74 /  30  30  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  91  69  92  73 /  20  10  30  10
VIDALIA         95  74  94  75 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS62 KCHS 311138
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
738 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A SPRAWLING BERMUDA-AZORES SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A NEARLY VERTICAL STACKED ANTICYCLONE
PERSISTS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS WILL KEEP ANY SHORT WAVE FEATURES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK CAPPING MECHANISM TO PREVAIL. DESPITE
THIS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THE TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE
SEA BREEZE...LAKE BREEZES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
THIS COMBINATION WILL HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW HAS VEERED A
LITTLE TOO MUCH TOWARD AN OFFSHORE FETCH...THAT ANY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL STAY OVER THE ATLANTIC. FURTHER TO THE WEST
WE FIND WEAKENING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING ALL NIGHT IN AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE IN PARTS OF THE COLUMBIA AND PEACHTREE CITY
FORECAST ZONES. THIS CONVECTION WILL DIE BY MID-MORNING AND SHOULD
STAY OUTSIDE THE CWFA. WE THEN LOOK FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
NEAR AND JUST INLAND FROM THE US-17 CORRIDOR...BEFORE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS FORM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA
WHERE 30 POPS WILL BE COMMON AFTER 3 OR 4 PM. SINCE THE OVERALL
THERMODYNAMICS AREN/T THAT IMPRESSIVE ANY SEVERE RISK IS EXTREMELY
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

AS THE MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE WE LOOK FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...WITH 850
TEMPS UP NEAR 18-19C AND THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS AS MUCH AS
1425-1435 METERS. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S...GREATEST TO THE WEST OF I-95 IN SC AND WEST OF US-301 IN
GA. AN ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL
HOLD COASTAL TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. ASSOCIATED HEAT
INDICES WON/T BE UNBEARABLE...BUT STILL PEAKING AT 100-103 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
MAY ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND THIS COULD KEEP
SHOWERS/T-STORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF SE
GA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/T-STORMS COULD AGAIN OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON ANY LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL
SO WARM. WE/LL ONLY BE ABLE TO MUSTER LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S INLAND
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE TO NO RISK FOR ANY SHRA OR TSRA AT THE AIRFIELDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SMALL PROBABILITIES OF SOME LATE NIGHT FOG
AND/OR STRATUS. THUS WE ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT
BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A LARGE BERMUDA AZORES HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AFTER LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...THE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO
THE ISOBARS AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL GENERATE MOSTLY
GENTLE SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF 2-3 FOOT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS
THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WATERSPOUTS...CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE GOOD FOR WATERSPOUTS THROUGH
ABOUT NOONTIME...DUE TO LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...PLUS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH
THAT ISN/T TOO STRONG. HOWEVER...THERE AREN/T ANY NOTICEABLE CLOUD
LINES EARLY THIS MORNING SO WE/RE NOT INCLINED TO ISSUE A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT AT THIS TIME. IF ANY BOUNDARIES FORM OVER THE
MARINE AREA LATER THIS MORNING WE/LL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE THE
SITUATION. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT EITHER WAY.

TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE IS HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SW WINDS UP
TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 311138
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
738 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A SPRAWLING BERMUDA-AZORES SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A NEARLY VERTICAL STACKED ANTICYCLONE
PERSISTS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS WILL KEEP ANY SHORT WAVE FEATURES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK CAPPING MECHANISM TO PREVAIL. DESPITE
THIS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THE TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE
SEA BREEZE...LAKE BREEZES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
THIS COMBINATION WILL HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW HAS VEERED A
LITTLE TOO MUCH TOWARD AN OFFSHORE FETCH...THAT ANY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL STAY OVER THE ATLANTIC. FURTHER TO THE WEST
WE FIND WEAKENING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING ALL NIGHT IN AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE IN PARTS OF THE COLUMBIA AND PEACHTREE CITY
FORECAST ZONES. THIS CONVECTION WILL DIE BY MID-MORNING AND SHOULD
STAY OUTSIDE THE CWFA. WE THEN LOOK FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
NEAR AND JUST INLAND FROM THE US-17 CORRIDOR...BEFORE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS FORM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA
WHERE 30 POPS WILL BE COMMON AFTER 3 OR 4 PM. SINCE THE OVERALL
THERMODYNAMICS AREN/T THAT IMPRESSIVE ANY SEVERE RISK IS EXTREMELY
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

AS THE MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE WE LOOK FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...WITH 850
TEMPS UP NEAR 18-19C AND THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS AS MUCH AS
1425-1435 METERS. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S...GREATEST TO THE WEST OF I-95 IN SC AND WEST OF US-301 IN
GA. AN ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL
HOLD COASTAL TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. ASSOCIATED HEAT
INDICES WON/T BE UNBEARABLE...BUT STILL PEAKING AT 100-103 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
MAY ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND THIS COULD KEEP
SHOWERS/T-STORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF SE
GA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/T-STORMS COULD AGAIN OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON ANY LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL
SO WARM. WE/LL ONLY BE ABLE TO MUSTER LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S INLAND
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE TO NO RISK FOR ANY SHRA OR TSRA AT THE AIRFIELDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SMALL PROBABILITIES OF SOME LATE NIGHT FOG
AND/OR STRATUS. THUS WE ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT
BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A LARGE BERMUDA AZORES HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AFTER LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...THE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO
THE ISOBARS AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL GENERATE MOSTLY
GENTLE SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF 2-3 FOOT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS
THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WATERSPOUTS...CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE GOOD FOR WATERSPOUTS THROUGH
ABOUT NOONTIME...DUE TO LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...PLUS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH
THAT ISN/T TOO STRONG. HOWEVER...THERE AREN/T ANY NOTICEABLE CLOUD
LINES EARLY THIS MORNING SO WE/RE NOT INCLINED TO ISSUE A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT AT THIS TIME. IF ANY BOUNDARIES FORM OVER THE
MARINE AREA LATER THIS MORNING WE/LL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE THE
SITUATION. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT EITHER WAY.

TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE IS HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SW WINDS UP
TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 311057
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
657 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A SPRAWLING BERMUDA-AZORES SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A NEARLY VERTICAL STACKED ANTICYCLONE
PERSISTS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS WILL KEEP ANY SHORT WAVE FEATURES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK CAPPING MECHANISM TO PREVAIL. DESPITE
THIS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THE TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE
SEA BREEZE...LAKE BREEZES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
THIS COMBINATION WILL HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW HAS VEERED A
LITTLE TOO MUCH TOWARD AN OFFSHORE FETCH...THAT ANY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL STAY OVER THE ATLANTIC. FURTHER TO THE WEST
WE FIND WEAKENING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING ALL NIGHT IN AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE IN PARTS OF THE COLUMBIA AND PEACHTREE CITY
FORECAST ZONES. THIS CONVECTION WILL DIE BY MID-MORNING AND SHOULD
STAY OUTSIDE THE CWFA. WE THEN LOOK FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
NEAR AND JUST INLAND FROM THE US-17 CORRIDOR...BEFORE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS FORM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA
WHERE 30 POPS WILL BE COMMON AFTER 3 OR 4 PM. SINCE THE OVERALL
THERMODYNAMICS AREN/T THAT IMPRESSIVE ANY SEVERE RISK IS EXTREMELY
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

AS THE MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE WE LOOK FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...WITH 850
TEMPS UP NEAR 18-19C AND THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS AS MUCH AS
1425-1435 METERS. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S...GREATEST TO THE WEST OF I-95 IN SC AND WEST OF US-301 IN
GA. AN ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL
HOLD COASTAL TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. ASSOCIATED HEAT
INDICES WON/T BE UNBEARABLE...BUT STILL PEAKING AT 100-103 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
MAY ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND THIS COULD KEEP
SHOWERS/T-STORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF SE
GA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/T-STORMS COULD AGAIN OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON ANY LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL
SO WARM. WE/LL ONLY BE ABLE TO MUSTER LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S INLAND
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR ANY IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY AT THE AIRFIELDS. THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A LARGE BERMUDA AZORES HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AFTER LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...THE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO
THE ISOBARS AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL GENERATE MOSTLY
GENTLE SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF 2-3 FOOT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS
THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WATERSPOUTS...CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE GOOD FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DUE TO LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PLUS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH THAT ISN/T TOO STRONG. WE/LL WAIT TO GET A PEAK
AT THE 12Z RADIOSONDE DATA AND THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE
BEFORE DECIDING WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE IS HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SW WINDS UP
TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 311057
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
657 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A SPRAWLING BERMUDA-AZORES SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A NEARLY VERTICAL STACKED ANTICYCLONE
PERSISTS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS WILL KEEP ANY SHORT WAVE FEATURES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK CAPPING MECHANISM TO PREVAIL. DESPITE
THIS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THE TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE
SEA BREEZE...LAKE BREEZES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
THIS COMBINATION WILL HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW HAS VEERED A
LITTLE TOO MUCH TOWARD AN OFFSHORE FETCH...THAT ANY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL STAY OVER THE ATLANTIC. FURTHER TO THE WEST
WE FIND WEAKENING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING ALL NIGHT IN AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE IN PARTS OF THE COLUMBIA AND PEACHTREE CITY
FORECAST ZONES. THIS CONVECTION WILL DIE BY MID-MORNING AND SHOULD
STAY OUTSIDE THE CWFA. WE THEN LOOK FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
NEAR AND JUST INLAND FROM THE US-17 CORRIDOR...BEFORE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS FORM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA
WHERE 30 POPS WILL BE COMMON AFTER 3 OR 4 PM. SINCE THE OVERALL
THERMODYNAMICS AREN/T THAT IMPRESSIVE ANY SEVERE RISK IS EXTREMELY
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

AS THE MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE WE LOOK FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...WITH 850
TEMPS UP NEAR 18-19C AND THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS AS MUCH AS
1425-1435 METERS. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S...GREATEST TO THE WEST OF I-95 IN SC AND WEST OF US-301 IN
GA. AN ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL
HOLD COASTAL TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. ASSOCIATED HEAT
INDICES WON/T BE UNBEARABLE...BUT STILL PEAKING AT 100-103 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
MAY ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND THIS COULD KEEP
SHOWERS/T-STORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF SE
GA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/T-STORMS COULD AGAIN OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON ANY LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL
SO WARM. WE/LL ONLY BE ABLE TO MUSTER LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S INLAND
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR ANY IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY AT THE AIRFIELDS. THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A LARGE BERMUDA AZORES HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AFTER LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...THE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO
THE ISOBARS AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL GENERATE MOSTLY
GENTLE SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF 2-3 FOOT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS
THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WATERSPOUTS...CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE GOOD FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DUE TO LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PLUS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH THAT ISN/T TOO STRONG. WE/LL WAIT TO GET A PEAK
AT THE 12Z RADIOSONDE DATA AND THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE
BEFORE DECIDING WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE IS HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SW WINDS UP
TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 311008
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
608 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION IN GA AND THE UPSTATE OF SC HAVE MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN CSRA. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PASSES WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE EAST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. AFTERNOON
TEMPS CONTINUE RATHER HOT...AND DUE TO THE COOL BIAS OF THE MODELS
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AM INCLINED TO CONTINUE WITH GOING A FEW
ABOVE THE MET NUMBERS...AND WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MAV. THIS
BRINGS MIDDLE 90S ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
MAY SLOW THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE STILL
HANGS IN STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY
MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BROUGHT SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE CSRA THIS MORNING...WHICH MAY IMPACT
AGS/DNL TAF SITES. WILL INCLUDE VCSH AT THIS TIME. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY HOLDING TOGETHER TO REACH CENTRAL MIDLANDS
SITES.

CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR/IFR
CATEGORY AT TIMES THIS MORNING. LOWEST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE...FORECASTING ANY LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS
TO SLOWLY RISE AND MIX OUT BY 16Z. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...











000
FXUS62 KFFC 310815
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
415 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WAVE OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD
AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA AND FURTHER ELONGATION OF THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE FIELD TODAY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROGGED
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH SLIGHT
ELSEWHERE. HI-RES SOLUTIONS VERIFIED DECENTLY ON RECENT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE /ALBEIT TIMING DISCREPANCIES/ AND HAVE TRENDED SUNDAY POPS
CLOSE TO THIS. OVERALL LOOKING TO BE LESS COVERAGE TODAY AND BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF MACON...BASED ON NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML-SBCAPE WITH A
BIT HIGHER DCAPE. STILL PRETTY DECENT PWATS BASED ON RECENT BUFR
SOUNDINGS AS WELL. MAIN THREATS THEREFORE LOOK TO BE STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

WEAK SFC RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH MONDAY
BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT GENERAL CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION. TOO DIFFICULT AT THE MOMENT TO FAVOR A PARTICULAR
PORTION OF THE CWA MUCH MORE THAN ANOTHER FOR DEVELOPMENT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL GUIDANCE BLEND RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL VALUES
TODAY THEN SLIGHT INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

BAKER


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK LEE TROUGH
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHEAST GA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE
PROGGING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO DROP DOWN ACROSS NORTH GA BY
MID-WEEK. CONVECTION DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENHANCED ALONG THIS FEATURE
FOR NOW. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...PERSISTENCE IS
THE RULE WITH ISOLD/SCT POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA


&&


AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS OR EVEN SCT TO BKN
MVFR CIGS IN 10-14Z PERIOD THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE
TO PUSH EAST OF KAHN AND KMCN. WINDS GENERALLY VRB TO CALM EARLY
THIS MORNING THEN SW SUNDAY AT 7 KTS OR LESS. CU FIELD SUNDAY IN
5-6 KFT RANGE BUT MAY ONLY GET TO BKN IN SOUTHERN SITES. CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON OTHER
THAN PROB30 FOR KMCN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM ON MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
MEDIUM ON SUNDAY PRECIP CHANCES.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  70  95  74 /  20  20  30  10
ATLANTA         90  73  92  77 /  20  10  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     85  64  87  70 /  40  30  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    90  69  92  74 /  30  20  30  10
COLUMBUS        93  74  94  78 /  20  20  30  10
GAINESVILLE     89  71  91  76 /  30  20  30  10
MACON           93  71  95  75 /  30  20  30  10
ROME            90  68  93  74 /  30  30  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  91  69  92  73 /  20  10  30  10
VIDALIA         95  74  94  75 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KFFC 310815
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
415 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WAVE OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD
AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA AND FURTHER ELONGATION OF THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE FIELD TODAY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROGGED
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH SLIGHT
ELSEWHERE. HI-RES SOLUTIONS VERIFIED DECENTLY ON RECENT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE /ALBEIT TIMING DISCREPANCIES/ AND HAVE TRENDED SUNDAY POPS
CLOSE TO THIS. OVERALL LOOKING TO BE LESS COVERAGE TODAY AND BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF MACON...BASED ON NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML-SBCAPE WITH A
BIT HIGHER DCAPE. STILL PRETTY DECENT PWATS BASED ON RECENT BUFR
SOUNDINGS AS WELL. MAIN THREATS THEREFORE LOOK TO BE STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

WEAK SFC RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH MONDAY
BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT GENERAL CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION. TOO DIFFICULT AT THE MOMENT TO FAVOR A PARTICULAR
PORTION OF THE CWA MUCH MORE THAN ANOTHER FOR DEVELOPMENT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL GUIDANCE BLEND RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL VALUES
TODAY THEN SLIGHT INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

BAKER


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK LEE TROUGH
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHEAST GA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE
PROGGING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO DROP DOWN ACROSS NORTH GA BY
MID-WEEK. CONVECTION DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENHANCED ALONG THIS FEATURE
FOR NOW. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...PERSISTENCE IS
THE RULE WITH ISOLD/SCT POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA


&&


AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS OR EVEN SCT TO BKN
MVFR CIGS IN 10-14Z PERIOD THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE
TO PUSH EAST OF KAHN AND KMCN. WINDS GENERALLY VRB TO CALM EARLY
THIS MORNING THEN SW SUNDAY AT 7 KTS OR LESS. CU FIELD SUNDAY IN
5-6 KFT RANGE BUT MAY ONLY GET TO BKN IN SOUTHERN SITES. CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON OTHER
THAN PROB30 FOR KMCN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM ON MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
MEDIUM ON SUNDAY PRECIP CHANCES.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  70  95  74 /  20  20  30  10
ATLANTA         90  73  92  77 /  20  10  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     85  64  87  70 /  40  30  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    90  69  92  74 /  30  20  30  10
COLUMBUS        93  74  94  78 /  20  20  30  10
GAINESVILLE     89  71  91  76 /  30  20  30  10
MACON           93  71  95  75 /  30  20  30  10
ROME            90  68  93  74 /  30  30  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  91  69  92  73 /  20  10  30  10
VIDALIA         95  74  94  75 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KFFC 310815
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
415 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WAVE OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD
AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA AND FURTHER ELONGATION OF THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE FIELD TODAY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROGGED
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH SLIGHT
ELSEWHERE. HI-RES SOLUTIONS VERIFIED DECENTLY ON RECENT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE /ALBEIT TIMING DISCREPANCIES/ AND HAVE TRENDED SUNDAY POPS
CLOSE TO THIS. OVERALL LOOKING TO BE LESS COVERAGE TODAY AND BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF MACON...BASED ON NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML-SBCAPE WITH A
BIT HIGHER DCAPE. STILL PRETTY DECENT PWATS BASED ON RECENT BUFR
SOUNDINGS AS WELL. MAIN THREATS THEREFORE LOOK TO BE STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

WEAK SFC RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH MONDAY
BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT GENERAL CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION. TOO DIFFICULT AT THE MOMENT TO FAVOR A PARTICULAR
PORTION OF THE CWA MUCH MORE THAN ANOTHER FOR DEVELOPMENT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL GUIDANCE BLEND RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL VALUES
TODAY THEN SLIGHT INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

BAKER


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK LEE TROUGH
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHEAST GA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE
PROGGING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO DROP DOWN ACROSS NORTH GA BY
MID-WEEK. CONVECTION DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENHANCED ALONG THIS FEATURE
FOR NOW. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...PERSISTENCE IS
THE RULE WITH ISOLD/SCT POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA


&&


AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS OR EVEN SCT TO BKN
MVFR CIGS IN 10-14Z PERIOD THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE
TO PUSH EAST OF KAHN AND KMCN. WINDS GENERALLY VRB TO CALM EARLY
THIS MORNING THEN SW SUNDAY AT 7 KTS OR LESS. CU FIELD SUNDAY IN
5-6 KFT RANGE BUT MAY ONLY GET TO BKN IN SOUTHERN SITES. CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON OTHER
THAN PROB30 FOR KMCN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM ON MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
MEDIUM ON SUNDAY PRECIP CHANCES.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  70  95  74 /  20  20  30  10
ATLANTA         90  73  92  77 /  20  10  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     85  64  87  70 /  40  30  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    90  69  92  74 /  30  20  30  10
COLUMBUS        93  74  94  78 /  20  20  30  10
GAINESVILLE     89  71  91  76 /  30  20  30  10
MACON           93  71  95  75 /  30  20  30  10
ROME            90  68  93  74 /  30  30  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  91  69  92  73 /  20  10  30  10
VIDALIA         95  74  94  75 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KFFC 310815
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
415 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WAVE OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD
AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA AND FURTHER ELONGATION OF THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE FIELD TODAY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROGGED
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH SLIGHT
ELSEWHERE. HI-RES SOLUTIONS VERIFIED DECENTLY ON RECENT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE /ALBEIT TIMING DISCREPANCIES/ AND HAVE TRENDED SUNDAY POPS
CLOSE TO THIS. OVERALL LOOKING TO BE LESS COVERAGE TODAY AND BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF MACON...BASED ON NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML-SBCAPE WITH A
BIT HIGHER DCAPE. STILL PRETTY DECENT PWATS BASED ON RECENT BUFR
SOUNDINGS AS WELL. MAIN THREATS THEREFORE LOOK TO BE STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

WEAK SFC RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH MONDAY
BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT GENERAL CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION. TOO DIFFICULT AT THE MOMENT TO FAVOR A PARTICULAR
PORTION OF THE CWA MUCH MORE THAN ANOTHER FOR DEVELOPMENT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL GUIDANCE BLEND RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL VALUES
TODAY THEN SLIGHT INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

BAKER


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK LEE TROUGH
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHEAST GA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE
PROGGING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO DROP DOWN ACROSS NORTH GA BY
MID-WEEK. CONVECTION DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ENHANCED ALONG THIS FEATURE
FOR NOW. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...PERSISTENCE IS
THE RULE WITH ISOLD/SCT POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA


&&


AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS OR EVEN SCT TO BKN
MVFR CIGS IN 10-14Z PERIOD THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE
TO PUSH EAST OF KAHN AND KMCN. WINDS GENERALLY VRB TO CALM EARLY
THIS MORNING THEN SW SUNDAY AT 7 KTS OR LESS. CU FIELD SUNDAY IN
5-6 KFT RANGE BUT MAY ONLY GET TO BKN IN SOUTHERN SITES. CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON OTHER
THAN PROB30 FOR KMCN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM ON MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
MEDIUM ON SUNDAY PRECIP CHANCES.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  70  95  74 /  20  20  30  10
ATLANTA         90  73  92  77 /  20  10  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     85  64  87  70 /  40  30  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    90  69  92  74 /  30  20  30  10
COLUMBUS        93  74  94  78 /  20  20  30  10
GAINESVILLE     89  71  91  76 /  30  20  30  10
MACON           93  71  95  75 /  30  20  30  10
ROME            90  68  93  74 /  30  30  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  91  69  92  73 /  20  10  30  10
VIDALIA         95  74  94  75 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KCHS 310801
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
401 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A SPRAWLING BERMUDA-AZORES SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A NEARLY VERTICAL STACKED ANTICYCLONE
PERSISTS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS WILL KEEP ANY SHORT WAVE FEATURES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK CAPPING MECHANISM TO PREVAIL. DESPITE
THIS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THE TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE
SEA BREEZE...LAKE BREEZES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
THIS COMBINATION WILL HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BEST CHANCES /AROUND 20 PERCENT/ WILL BE OVER CHARLESTON AND
FAR EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
INFLUX OF MARINE AIR WITHIN THE BEST SOUTHERLY CONVERGENT FLOW.
THEN ISOLATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR AND JUST INLAND FROM THE
US-17 CORRIDOR...BEFORE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FORM DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA WHERE 30 POPS WILL BE COMMON AFTER
3 OR 4 PM. SINCE THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMICS AREN/T THAT IMPRESSIVE
ANY SEVERE RISK IS EXTREMELY LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

AS THE MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE WE LOOK FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...WITH 850
TEMPS UP NEAR 18-19C AND THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS AS MUCH AS
1425-1435 METERS. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S...GREATEST TO THE WEST OF I-95 IN SC AND WEST OF US-301 IN
GA. AN ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL
HOLD COASTAL TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. ASSOCIATED HEAT
INDICES WON/T BE UNBEARABLE...BUT STILL PEAKING AT 100-105 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
MAY ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND THIS COULD KEEP
SHOWERS/T-STORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF SE
GA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/T-STORMS COULD AGAIN OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON ANY LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL
SO WARM. WE/LL ONLY BE ABLE TO MUSTER LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S INLAND
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR ANY IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY AT THE AIRFIELDS. THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A LARGE BERMUDA AZORES HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AFTER LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...THE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO
THE ISOBARS AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL GENERATE MOSTLY
GENTLE SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF 2-3 FOOT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS
THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WATERSPOUTS...CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE GOOD FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DUE TO LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PLUS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH THAT ISN/T TOO STRONG. HOWEVER...WE PREFER TO
WAIT UNTIL WE RECEIVE EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES TO SEE IF WE
HAVE ANY DEFINED BOUNDARIES RATHER THAN JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION
FOR THE SPOUTS TO DEVELOP UPON...BEFORE ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION
IN A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE IS HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SW WINDS UP
TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 310801
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
401 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A SPRAWLING BERMUDA-AZORES SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A NEARLY VERTICAL STACKED ANTICYCLONE
PERSISTS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS WILL KEEP ANY SHORT WAVE FEATURES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK CAPPING MECHANISM TO PREVAIL. DESPITE
THIS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THE TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE
SEA BREEZE...LAKE BREEZES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
THIS COMBINATION WILL HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BEST CHANCES /AROUND 20 PERCENT/ WILL BE OVER CHARLESTON AND
FAR EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
INFLUX OF MARINE AIR WITHIN THE BEST SOUTHERLY CONVERGENT FLOW.
THEN ISOLATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR AND JUST INLAND FROM THE
US-17 CORRIDOR...BEFORE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FORM DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA WHERE 30 POPS WILL BE COMMON AFTER
3 OR 4 PM. SINCE THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMICS AREN/T THAT IMPRESSIVE
ANY SEVERE RISK IS EXTREMELY LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

AS THE MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE WE LOOK FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...WITH 850
TEMPS UP NEAR 18-19C AND THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS AS MUCH AS
1425-1435 METERS. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S...GREATEST TO THE WEST OF I-95 IN SC AND WEST OF US-301 IN
GA. AN ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL
HOLD COASTAL TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. ASSOCIATED HEAT
INDICES WON/T BE UNBEARABLE...BUT STILL PEAKING AT 100-105 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
MAY ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND THIS COULD KEEP
SHOWERS/T-STORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF SE
GA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/T-STORMS COULD AGAIN OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON ANY LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL
SO WARM. WE/LL ONLY BE ABLE TO MUSTER LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S INLAND
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR ANY IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY AT THE AIRFIELDS. THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A LARGE BERMUDA AZORES HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AFTER LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...THE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO
THE ISOBARS AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL GENERATE MOSTLY
GENTLE SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF 2-3 FOOT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS
THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WATERSPOUTS...CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE GOOD FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DUE TO LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PLUS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH THAT ISN/T TOO STRONG. HOWEVER...WE PREFER TO
WAIT UNTIL WE RECEIVE EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES TO SEE IF WE
HAVE ANY DEFINED BOUNDARIES RATHER THAN JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION
FOR THE SPOUTS TO DEVELOP UPON...BEFORE ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION
IN A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE IS HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SW WINDS UP
TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 310801
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
401 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A SPRAWLING BERMUDA-AZORES SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A NEARLY VERTICAL STACKED ANTICYCLONE
PERSISTS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS WILL KEEP ANY SHORT WAVE FEATURES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK CAPPING MECHANISM TO PREVAIL. DESPITE
THIS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THE TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE
SEA BREEZE...LAKE BREEZES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
THIS COMBINATION WILL HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BEST CHANCES /AROUND 20 PERCENT/ WILL BE OVER CHARLESTON AND
FAR EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
INFLUX OF MARINE AIR WITHIN THE BEST SOUTHERLY CONVERGENT FLOW.
THEN ISOLATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR AND JUST INLAND FROM THE
US-17 CORRIDOR...BEFORE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FORM DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA WHERE 30 POPS WILL BE COMMON AFTER
3 OR 4 PM. SINCE THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMICS AREN/T THAT IMPRESSIVE
ANY SEVERE RISK IS EXTREMELY LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

AS THE MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE WE LOOK FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...WITH 850
TEMPS UP NEAR 18-19C AND THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS AS MUCH AS
1425-1435 METERS. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S...GREATEST TO THE WEST OF I-95 IN SC AND WEST OF US-301 IN
GA. AN ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL
HOLD COASTAL TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. ASSOCIATED HEAT
INDICES WON/T BE UNBEARABLE...BUT STILL PEAKING AT 100-105 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
MAY ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND THIS COULD KEEP
SHOWERS/T-STORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF SE
GA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/T-STORMS COULD AGAIN OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON ANY LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL
SO WARM. WE/LL ONLY BE ABLE TO MUSTER LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S INLAND
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR ANY IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY AT THE AIRFIELDS. THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A LARGE BERMUDA AZORES HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AFTER LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...THE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO
THE ISOBARS AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL GENERATE MOSTLY
GENTLE SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF 2-3 FOOT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS
THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WATERSPOUTS...CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE GOOD FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DUE TO LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PLUS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH THAT ISN/T TOO STRONG. HOWEVER...WE PREFER TO
WAIT UNTIL WE RECEIVE EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES TO SEE IF WE
HAVE ANY DEFINED BOUNDARIES RATHER THAN JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION
FOR THE SPOUTS TO DEVELOP UPON...BEFORE ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION
IN A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE IS HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SW WINDS UP
TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 310801
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
401 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A SPRAWLING BERMUDA-AZORES SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A NEARLY VERTICAL STACKED ANTICYCLONE
PERSISTS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS WILL KEEP ANY SHORT WAVE FEATURES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK CAPPING MECHANISM TO PREVAIL. DESPITE
THIS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THE TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE
SEA BREEZE...LAKE BREEZES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
THIS COMBINATION WILL HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BEST CHANCES /AROUND 20 PERCENT/ WILL BE OVER CHARLESTON AND
FAR EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
INFLUX OF MARINE AIR WITHIN THE BEST SOUTHERLY CONVERGENT FLOW.
THEN ISOLATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR AND JUST INLAND FROM THE
US-17 CORRIDOR...BEFORE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FORM DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA WHERE 30 POPS WILL BE COMMON AFTER
3 OR 4 PM. SINCE THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMICS AREN/T THAT IMPRESSIVE
ANY SEVERE RISK IS EXTREMELY LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

AS THE MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE WE LOOK FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...WITH 850
TEMPS UP NEAR 18-19C AND THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS AS MUCH AS
1425-1435 METERS. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S...GREATEST TO THE WEST OF I-95 IN SC AND WEST OF US-301 IN
GA. AN ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL
HOLD COASTAL TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. ASSOCIATED HEAT
INDICES WON/T BE UNBEARABLE...BUT STILL PEAKING AT 100-105 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
MAY ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND THIS COULD KEEP
SHOWERS/T-STORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF SE
GA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/T-STORMS COULD AGAIN OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON ANY LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL
SO WARM. WE/LL ONLY BE ABLE TO MUSTER LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S INLAND
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR ANY IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY AT THE AIRFIELDS. THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A LARGE BERMUDA AZORES HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AFTER LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...THE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO
THE ISOBARS AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL GENERATE MOSTLY
GENTLE SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF 2-3 FOOT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS
THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WATERSPOUTS...CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE GOOD FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DUE TO LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PLUS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH THAT ISN/T TOO STRONG. HOWEVER...WE PREFER TO
WAIT UNTIL WE RECEIVE EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES TO SEE IF WE
HAVE ANY DEFINED BOUNDARIES RATHER THAN JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION
FOR THE SPOUTS TO DEVELOP UPON...BEFORE ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION
IN A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE IS HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SW WINDS UP
TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 310650
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REST OF THE NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS SPREADING HIGH AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS. AT
THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING IN LOWER POPS.  BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEA- BREEZE SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE EAST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. AFTERNOON
TEMPS CONTINUE RATHER HOT...AND DUE TO THE COOL BIAS OF THE MODELS
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AM INCLINED TO CONTINUE WITH GOING A FEW
ABOVE THE MET NUMBERS...AND WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MAV. THIS
BRINGS MIDDLE 90S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE STILL
HANGS IN STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY
MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

EASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH AGS/DNL BY
09Z...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN ADVANCE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN
CSRA. HOWEVER WILL NOT PUT IN TAFS ATTM DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AS
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO RIDGE. OVERNIGHT FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE
FOCUS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 08Z
AGS/OGB AND 10Z CAE/CUB. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR
FOG AND STRATUS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
LIFT INTO AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK...THEN FINALLY MIX OUT BY
16Z. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 310650
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REST OF THE NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS SPREADING HIGH AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS. AT
THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING IN LOWER POPS.  BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEA- BREEZE SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE EAST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. AFTERNOON
TEMPS CONTINUE RATHER HOT...AND DUE TO THE COOL BIAS OF THE MODELS
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AM INCLINED TO CONTINUE WITH GOING A FEW
ABOVE THE MET NUMBERS...AND WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MAV. THIS
BRINGS MIDDLE 90S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE STILL
HANGS IN STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY
MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

EASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH AGS/DNL BY
09Z...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN ADVANCE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN
CSRA. HOWEVER WILL NOT PUT IN TAFS ATTM DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AS
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO RIDGE. OVERNIGHT FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE
FOCUS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 08Z
AGS/OGB AND 10Z CAE/CUB. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR
FOG AND STRATUS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
LIFT INTO AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK...THEN FINALLY MIX OUT BY
16Z. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 310646
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
246 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE
TO NORMAL.

BDL

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

OVERALL PATTERN DEFINED BY STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED OF THE SC
COAST. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MS VALLEY PROGGED TO
FLATTEN AS IT RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE. WESTERLIES SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE STATE WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE E-W ORIENTED RIDGE
AXIS SUN-MON.

PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE
CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN SPITE OF MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG...ONLY A FEW CELLS INDICATING MUCH LIGHTNING
OR SUBSTANTIAL REFLECTIVITY ALOFT SO FAR. DCAPE VALUES BELOW 800 SO
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

MODELS INDICATING LESS CONVECTION SUNDAY THAN TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ENTRENCHED. COULD SEE TSRA NEAR SEA BREEZE REGION IN
FAR SRN AND SERN COUNTIES AS WELL AS A FEW TSRA ALONG WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY SLIPPING ACROSS ERN TN.

SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES SHOULD
PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

LONG TERM /355 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA SUNDAY EVENING...AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
THE SHEAR AXIS SHOULD WEAKEN BY MONDAY. CONVECTION WILL RETURN TO
A MORE SUMMER- LIKE DIURNAL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAK TROUGH TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER
THE WEAK BOUNDARY MID-WEEK...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF A FEW
DEGREES...BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS OR EVEN SCT TO BKN
MVFR CIGS IN 10-14Z PERIOD THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE
TO PUSH EAST OF KAHN AND KMCN. WINDS GENERALLY VRB TO CALM EARLY
THIS MORNING THEN SW SUNDAY AT 7 KTS OR LESS. CU FIELD SUNDAY IN
5-6 KFT RANGE BUT MAY ONLY GET TO BKN IN SOUTHERN SITES. CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON OTHER
THAN PROB30 FOR KMCN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM ON MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
MEDIUM ON SUNDAY PRECIP CHANCES.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          94  69  94  73 /  20  20  30  20
ATLANTA         90  72  91  71 /  20  20  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     85  63  87  67 /  40  30  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    90  68  92  70 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        93  73  93  74 /  20  20  30  20
GAINESVILLE     89  70  91  71 /  30  20  30  20
MACON           94  69  94  74 /  20  20  30  20
ROME            90  68  93  70 /  30  20  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  91  68  91  71 /  20  20  30  20
VIDALIA         96  73  95  77 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON/BDL
LONG TERM...NLISTEMAA/41
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KFFC 310646
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
246 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE
TO NORMAL.

BDL

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

OVERALL PATTERN DEFINED BY STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED OF THE SC
COAST. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MS VALLEY PROGGED TO
FLATTEN AS IT RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE. WESTERLIES SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE STATE WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE E-W ORIENTED RIDGE
AXIS SUN-MON.

PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE
CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN SPITE OF MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG...ONLY A FEW CELLS INDICATING MUCH LIGHTNING
OR SUBSTANTIAL REFLECTIVITY ALOFT SO FAR. DCAPE VALUES BELOW 800 SO
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

MODELS INDICATING LESS CONVECTION SUNDAY THAN TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ENTRENCHED. COULD SEE TSRA NEAR SEA BREEZE REGION IN
FAR SRN AND SERN COUNTIES AS WELL AS A FEW TSRA ALONG WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY SLIPPING ACROSS ERN TN.

SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES SHOULD
PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

LONG TERM /355 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA SUNDAY EVENING...AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
THE SHEAR AXIS SHOULD WEAKEN BY MONDAY. CONVECTION WILL RETURN TO
A MORE SUMMER- LIKE DIURNAL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAK TROUGH TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER
THE WEAK BOUNDARY MID-WEEK...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF A FEW
DEGREES...BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS OR EVEN SCT TO BKN
MVFR CIGS IN 10-14Z PERIOD THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE
TO PUSH EAST OF KAHN AND KMCN. WINDS GENERALLY VRB TO CALM EARLY
THIS MORNING THEN SW SUNDAY AT 7 KTS OR LESS. CU FIELD SUNDAY IN
5-6 KFT RANGE BUT MAY ONLY GET TO BKN IN SOUTHERN SITES. CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON OTHER
THAN PROB30 FOR KMCN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM ON MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
MEDIUM ON SUNDAY PRECIP CHANCES.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          94  69  94  73 /  20  20  30  20
ATLANTA         90  72  91  71 /  20  20  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     85  63  87  67 /  40  30  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    90  68  92  70 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        93  73  93  74 /  20  20  30  20
GAINESVILLE     89  70  91  71 /  30  20  30  20
MACON           94  69  94  74 /  20  20  30  20
ROME            90  68  93  70 /  30  20  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  91  68  91  71 /  20  20  30  20
VIDALIA         96  73  95  77 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON/BDL
LONG TERM...NLISTEMAA/41
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KFFC 310646
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
246 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE
TO NORMAL.

BDL

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

OVERALL PATTERN DEFINED BY STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED OF THE SC
COAST. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MS VALLEY PROGGED TO
FLATTEN AS IT RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE. WESTERLIES SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE STATE WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE E-W ORIENTED RIDGE
AXIS SUN-MON.

PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE
CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN SPITE OF MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG...ONLY A FEW CELLS INDICATING MUCH LIGHTNING
OR SUBSTANTIAL REFLECTIVITY ALOFT SO FAR. DCAPE VALUES BELOW 800 SO
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

MODELS INDICATING LESS CONVECTION SUNDAY THAN TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ENTRENCHED. COULD SEE TSRA NEAR SEA BREEZE REGION IN
FAR SRN AND SERN COUNTIES AS WELL AS A FEW TSRA ALONG WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY SLIPPING ACROSS ERN TN.

SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES SHOULD
PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

LONG TERM /355 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA SUNDAY EVENING...AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
THE SHEAR AXIS SHOULD WEAKEN BY MONDAY. CONVECTION WILL RETURN TO
A MORE SUMMER- LIKE DIURNAL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAK TROUGH TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER
THE WEAK BOUNDARY MID-WEEK...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF A FEW
DEGREES...BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS OR EVEN SCT TO BKN
MVFR CIGS IN 10-14Z PERIOD THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE
TO PUSH EAST OF KAHN AND KMCN. WINDS GENERALLY VRB TO CALM EARLY
THIS MORNING THEN SW SUNDAY AT 7 KTS OR LESS. CU FIELD SUNDAY IN
5-6 KFT RANGE BUT MAY ONLY GET TO BKN IN SOUTHERN SITES. CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON OTHER
THAN PROB30 FOR KMCN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM ON MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
MEDIUM ON SUNDAY PRECIP CHANCES.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          94  69  94  73 /  20  20  30  20
ATLANTA         90  72  91  71 /  20  20  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     85  63  87  67 /  40  30  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    90  68  92  70 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        93  73  93  74 /  20  20  30  20
GAINESVILLE     89  70  91  71 /  30  20  30  20
MACON           94  69  94  74 /  20  20  30  20
ROME            90  68  93  70 /  30  20  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  91  68  91  71 /  20  20  30  20
VIDALIA         96  73  95  77 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON/BDL
LONG TERM...NLISTEMAA/41
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KFFC 310646
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
246 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE
TO NORMAL.

BDL

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

OVERALL PATTERN DEFINED BY STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED OF THE SC
COAST. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MS VALLEY PROGGED TO
FLATTEN AS IT RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE. WESTERLIES SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE STATE WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE E-W ORIENTED RIDGE
AXIS SUN-MON.

PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE
CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN SPITE OF MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG...ONLY A FEW CELLS INDICATING MUCH LIGHTNING
OR SUBSTANTIAL REFLECTIVITY ALOFT SO FAR. DCAPE VALUES BELOW 800 SO
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

MODELS INDICATING LESS CONVECTION SUNDAY THAN TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ENTRENCHED. COULD SEE TSRA NEAR SEA BREEZE REGION IN
FAR SRN AND SERN COUNTIES AS WELL AS A FEW TSRA ALONG WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY SLIPPING ACROSS ERN TN.

SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES SHOULD
PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

LONG TERM /355 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA SUNDAY EVENING...AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
THE SHEAR AXIS SHOULD WEAKEN BY MONDAY. CONVECTION WILL RETURN TO
A MORE SUMMER- LIKE DIURNAL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAK TROUGH TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER
THE WEAK BOUNDARY MID-WEEK...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF A FEW
DEGREES...BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS OR EVEN SCT TO BKN
MVFR CIGS IN 10-14Z PERIOD THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE
TO PUSH EAST OF KAHN AND KMCN. WINDS GENERALLY VRB TO CALM EARLY
THIS MORNING THEN SW SUNDAY AT 7 KTS OR LESS. CU FIELD SUNDAY IN
5-6 KFT RANGE BUT MAY ONLY GET TO BKN IN SOUTHERN SITES. CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON OTHER
THAN PROB30 FOR KMCN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM ON MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
MEDIUM ON SUNDAY PRECIP CHANCES.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          94  69  94  73 /  20  20  30  20
ATLANTA         90  72  91  71 /  20  20  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     85  63  87  67 /  40  30  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    90  68  92  70 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        93  73  93  74 /  20  20  30  20
GAINESVILLE     89  70  91  71 /  30  20  30  20
MACON           94  69  94  74 /  20  20  30  20
ROME            90  68  93  70 /  30  20  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  91  68  91  71 /  20  20  30  20
VIDALIA         96  73  95  77 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON/BDL
LONG TERM...NLISTEMAA/41
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KCAE 310550
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
150 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REST OF THE NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS SPREADING HIGH AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS. AT
THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING IN LOWER POPS.  BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEA- BREEZE SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE EAST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. AFTERNOON
TEMPS CONTINUE RATHER HOT...AND DUE TO THE COOL BIAS OF THE MODELS
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AM INCLINED TO CONTINUE WITH GOING A FEW
ABOVE THE MET NUMBERS...AND WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MAV. THIS
BRINGS MIDDLE 90S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND FLATTEN
OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT STILL HANGS IN STRONG ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY MONDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE POPS/MODEL SPECTRUM ONLY INDICATING SLIGHT CHANCE/VERY
LOW CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THESE
NUMBERS WITH ACTIVITY TO BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM IN
THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

EASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH AGS/DNL BY
09Z...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN ADVANCE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN
CSRA. HOWEVER WILL NOT PUT IN TAFS ATTM DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AS
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO RIDGE. OVERNIGHT FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE
FOCUS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 08Z
AGS/OGB AND 10Z CAE/CUB. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR
FOG AND STRATUS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
LIFT INTO AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK...THEN FINALLY MIX OUT BY
16Z. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 310550
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
150 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REST OF THE NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS SPREADING HIGH AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS. AT
THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING IN LOWER POPS.  BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEA- BREEZE SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE EAST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. AFTERNOON
TEMPS CONTINUE RATHER HOT...AND DUE TO THE COOL BIAS OF THE MODELS
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AM INCLINED TO CONTINUE WITH GOING A FEW
ABOVE THE MET NUMBERS...AND WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MAV. THIS
BRINGS MIDDLE 90S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND FLATTEN
OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT STILL HANGS IN STRONG ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY MONDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE POPS/MODEL SPECTRUM ONLY INDICATING SLIGHT CHANCE/VERY
LOW CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THESE
NUMBERS WITH ACTIVITY TO BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM IN
THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

EASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH AGS/DNL BY
09Z...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN ADVANCE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN
CSRA. HOWEVER WILL NOT PUT IN TAFS ATTM DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AS
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO RIDGE. OVERNIGHT FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE
FOCUS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 08Z
AGS/OGB AND 10Z CAE/CUB. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR
FOG AND STRATUS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
LIFT INTO AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK...THEN FINALLY MIX OUT BY
16Z. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCHS 310521
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
121 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND TWO MAIN WEATHER
PHENOMENON. THE FIRST IS SOME MARINE BASED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THAT
WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVECT ONSHORE WITHIN THE SE AND SOUTH SYNOPTIC
FLOW INTO CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. WE HAVE CARRIED 20
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND MOVES ONSHORE. WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SKIRTING
THE REST OF THE COASTAL ZONES...RAIN CHANCES ARE HELD UNDER 15
PERCENT IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE SECOND WEATHER CONCERN WOULD BE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THE GROUND IS STILL TOO
WARM AND WE HAVEN/T HAD MUCH RAINFALL THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
THUS WE WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING ANY AT THIS TIME AND MAINTAIN A
WEATHER WATCH.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE ONSHORE FETCH WILL
HOLD TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNDER DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE...TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE MOISTURE
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES EACH MORNING...THEN DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE EACH AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE PER DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION EACH NIGHT.

DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...LIMITED POPS TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 30/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...
THESE CHANGES ARE SUBTLE...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS ARE NOT JUSTIFIED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

AS PWATS INCREASE TOWARD 2 INCHES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F EACH
DAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS...PERHAPS REMAINING AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A LITTLE FOG AND/OR STRATUS CLOSE TO
DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...ODDS FAVOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR ANY IMPACTS
FROM SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE VALID TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TONIGHT...SE FLOW WILL STEADILY VEER TO MORE
SOUTHERLY...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ374. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL PREVAIL AS THEY DRIFT NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
INCLUDING THE LAND BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15
KT AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD
THE S/SW AT 10-15 KT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S/SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ENHANCED BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AS HIGH AS 15 KT AND
BY NOCTURNAL SURGES AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-3
FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 310521
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
121 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND TWO MAIN WEATHER
PHENOMENON. THE FIRST IS SOME MARINE BASED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THAT
WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVECT ONSHORE WITHIN THE SE AND SOUTH SYNOPTIC
FLOW INTO CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. WE HAVE CARRIED 20
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND MOVES ONSHORE. WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SKIRTING
THE REST OF THE COASTAL ZONES...RAIN CHANCES ARE HELD UNDER 15
PERCENT IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE SECOND WEATHER CONCERN WOULD BE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THE GROUND IS STILL TOO
WARM AND WE HAVEN/T HAD MUCH RAINFALL THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
THUS WE WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING ANY AT THIS TIME AND MAINTAIN A
WEATHER WATCH.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE ONSHORE FETCH WILL
HOLD TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNDER DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE...TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE MOISTURE
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES EACH MORNING...THEN DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE EACH AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE PER DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION EACH NIGHT.

DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...LIMITED POPS TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 30/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...
THESE CHANGES ARE SUBTLE...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS ARE NOT JUSTIFIED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

AS PWATS INCREASE TOWARD 2 INCHES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F EACH
DAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS...PERHAPS REMAINING AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A LITTLE FOG AND/OR STRATUS CLOSE TO
DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...ODDS FAVOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR ANY IMPACTS
FROM SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE VALID TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TONIGHT...SE FLOW WILL STEADILY VEER TO MORE
SOUTHERLY...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ374. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL PREVAIL AS THEY DRIFT NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
INCLUDING THE LAND BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15
KT AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD
THE S/SW AT 10-15 KT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S/SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ENHANCED BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AS HIGH AS 15 KT AND
BY NOCTURNAL SURGES AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-3
FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 310245
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1045 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS
EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS SPREADING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS. AT THE
SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED THETA-E RIDGE...PWAT 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA...ALLOWING
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF
SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR THIS AREA.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL
HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT STILL HANGS IN STRONG
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW A MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST/WEST BY MONDAY. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY MONDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS/MODEL SPECTRUM ONLY INDICATING SLIGHT
CHANCE/VERY LOW CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE
TO THESE NUMBERS WITH ACTIVITY TO BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
ONLY SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA WITH ALL TAF SITES VFR
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS CROSS THE
AREA. FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE FOCUS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 08Z AGS/OGB AND 10Z CAE/CUB.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET
OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z.
WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT INTO AN MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS DECK...THEN FINALLY MIX OUT BY 16Z. REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 310245
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1045 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS
EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS SPREADING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS. AT THE
SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED THETA-E RIDGE...PWAT 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA...ALLOWING
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF
SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR THIS AREA.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL
HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT STILL HANGS IN STRONG
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW A MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST/WEST BY MONDAY. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY MONDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS/MODEL SPECTRUM ONLY INDICATING SLIGHT
CHANCE/VERY LOW CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE
TO THESE NUMBERS WITH ACTIVITY TO BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
ONLY SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA WITH ALL TAF SITES VFR
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS CROSS THE
AREA. FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE FOCUS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 08Z AGS/OGB AND 10Z CAE/CUB.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET
OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z.
WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT INTO AN MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS DECK...THEN FINALLY MIX OUT BY 16Z. REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 310227
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1027 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.
THE FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION
TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO ADVECT INLAND ALONG SOME OF
THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA...TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION WITHIN CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND PATCHY AT BEST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE MILD...REACHING THE MID TO LOW 70S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNDER DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE...TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE MOISTURE
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES EACH MORNING...THEN DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE EACH AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE PER DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION EACH NIGHT.

DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...LIMITED POPS TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 30/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...
THESE CHANGES ARE SUBTLE...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS ARE NOT JUSTIFIED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

AS PWATS INCREASE TOWARD 2 INCHES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F EACH
DAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS...PERHAPS REMAINING AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION
OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG. MOS GUIDANCE IS MOST PESSIMISTIC AT
KSAV WHERE THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM 08-13Z...BUT PREFER TO KEEP KCHS VFR AND JUST HINT AT SOME
REDUCED 6SM VISIBILITIES AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE SAME
08-13Z TIME FRAME UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL STEADILY VEER TO MORE SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF 4 FT HEIGHTS BEYOND 40 NM.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
INCLUDING THE LAND BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15
KT AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD
THE S/SW AT 10-15 KT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S/SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ENHANCED BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AS HIGH AS 15 KT AND
BY NOCTURNAL SURGES AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-3
FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ/WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 310227
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1027 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.
THE FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION
TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO ADVECT INLAND ALONG SOME OF
THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA...TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION WITHIN CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND PATCHY AT BEST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE MILD...REACHING THE MID TO LOW 70S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNDER DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE...TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE MOISTURE
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES EACH MORNING...THEN DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE EACH AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE PER DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION EACH NIGHT.

DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...LIMITED POPS TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 30/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...
THESE CHANGES ARE SUBTLE...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS ARE NOT JUSTIFIED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

AS PWATS INCREASE TOWARD 2 INCHES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F EACH
DAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS...PERHAPS REMAINING AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION
OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG. MOS GUIDANCE IS MOST PESSIMISTIC AT
KSAV WHERE THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM 08-13Z...BUT PREFER TO KEEP KCHS VFR AND JUST HINT AT SOME
REDUCED 6SM VISIBILITIES AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE SAME
08-13Z TIME FRAME UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL STEADILY VEER TO MORE SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF 4 FT HEIGHTS BEYOND 40 NM.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
INCLUDING THE LAND BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15
KT AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD
THE S/SW AT 10-15 KT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S/SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ENHANCED BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AS HIGH AS 15 KT AND
BY NOCTURNAL SURGES AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-3
FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ/WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCAE 310109
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
909 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS
EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS SPREADING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS. AT THE
SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED THETA-E RIDGE...PWAT 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA...ALLOWING
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF
SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR THIS AREA.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL
HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT STILL HANGS IN STRONG
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW A MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST/WEST BY MONDAY. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY MONDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS/MODEL SPECTRUM ONLY INDICATING SLIGHT
CHANCE/VERY LOW CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE
TO THESE NUMBERS WITH ACTIVITY TO BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
ONLY SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF AGS/DNL LOSING STRENGTH WITH SUNSET AND
WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE
FOCUS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 08Z
AGS/OGB AND 10Z CAE/CUB. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR
FOG AND STRATUS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
LIFT INTO AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK...THEN FINALLY MIX OUT BY
16Z. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 310108 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
908 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE
TO NORMAL.

BDL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

OVERALL PATTERN DEFINED BY STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED OF THE SC
COAST. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MS VALLEY PROGGED TO
FLATTEN AS IT RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE. WESTERLIES SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE STATE WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE E-W ORIENTED RIDGE
AXIS SUN-MON.

PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE
CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN SPITE OF MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG...ONLY A FEW CELLS INDICATING MUCH LIGHTNING
OR SUBSTANTIAL REFLECTIVITY ALOFT SO FAR. DCAPE VALUES BELOW 800 SO
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

MODELS INDICATING LESS CONVECTION SUNDAY THAN TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ENTRENCHED. COULD SEE TSRA NEAR SEA BREEZE REGION IN
FAR SRN AND SERN COUNTIES AS WELL AS A FEW TSRA ALONG WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY SLIPPING ACROSS ERN TN.

SNELSON

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES SHOULD
PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

LONG TERM /355 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA SUNDAY EVENING...AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
THE SHEAR AXIS SHOULD WEAKEN BY MONDAY. CONVECTION WILL RETURN TO
A MORE SUMMER- LIKE DIURNAL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAK TROUGH TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER
THE WEAK BOUNDARY MID-WEEK...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF A FEW
DEGREES...BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

NLISTEMAA

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE TO ANY MORE IMPACTS TO ATL. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR-MVFR CLOUDS
DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING ALONG WITH AREAS OF IFR-MVFR FOG.
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SURFACE WINDS
BECOMING WSW FOR SUNDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THE EVENING.
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR LOW CLOUDS OR FOG DEVELOPING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  94  69  94 /  40  20  20  30
ATLANTA         71  90  72  91 /  40  20  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     65  85  63  87 /  40  40  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    69  90  68  92 /  50  30  20  30
COLUMBUS        73  93  73  93 /  40  20  20  30
GAINESVILLE     70  89  70  91 /  40  30  20  30
MACON           70  94  69  94 /  40  20  20  30
ROME            70  90  68  93 /  50  30  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  69  91  68  91 /  40  20  20  30
VIDALIA         73  96  73  95 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...BDL





000
FXUS62 KFFC 310108 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
908 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE
TO NORMAL.

BDL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

OVERALL PATTERN DEFINED BY STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED OF THE SC
COAST. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MS VALLEY PROGGED TO
FLATTEN AS IT RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE. WESTERLIES SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE STATE WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE E-W ORIENTED RIDGE
AXIS SUN-MON.

PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE
CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN SPITE OF MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG...ONLY A FEW CELLS INDICATING MUCH LIGHTNING
OR SUBSTANTIAL REFLECTIVITY ALOFT SO FAR. DCAPE VALUES BELOW 800 SO
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

MODELS INDICATING LESS CONVECTION SUNDAY THAN TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ENTRENCHED. COULD SEE TSRA NEAR SEA BREEZE REGION IN
FAR SRN AND SERN COUNTIES AS WELL AS A FEW TSRA ALONG WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY SLIPPING ACROSS ERN TN.

SNELSON

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES SHOULD
PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

LONG TERM /355 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA SUNDAY EVENING...AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
THE SHEAR AXIS SHOULD WEAKEN BY MONDAY. CONVECTION WILL RETURN TO
A MORE SUMMER- LIKE DIURNAL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAK TROUGH TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER
THE WEAK BOUNDARY MID-WEEK...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF A FEW
DEGREES...BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

NLISTEMAA

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE TO ANY MORE IMPACTS TO ATL. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR-MVFR CLOUDS
DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING ALONG WITH AREAS OF IFR-MVFR FOG.
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SURFACE WINDS
BECOMING WSW FOR SUNDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THE EVENING.
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR LOW CLOUDS OR FOG DEVELOPING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  94  69  94 /  40  20  20  30
ATLANTA         71  90  72  91 /  40  20  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     65  85  63  87 /  40  40  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    69  90  68  92 /  50  30  20  30
COLUMBUS        73  93  73  93 /  40  20  20  30
GAINESVILLE     70  89  70  91 /  40  30  20  30
MACON           70  94  69  94 /  40  20  20  30
ROME            70  90  68  93 /  50  30  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  69  91  68  91 /  40  20  20  30
VIDALIA         73  96  73  95 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...BDL






000
FXUS62 KCHS 302356
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
756 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FOCUS FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO ADVECT INLAND ALONG SOME OF
THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA...TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION WITHIN CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND PATCHY AT BEST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE MILD...REACHING THE MID TO LOW 70S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNDER DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE...TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE MOISTURE
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES EACH MORNING...THEN DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE EACH AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE PER DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION EACH NIGHT.

DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...LIMITED POPS TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 30/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...
THESE CHANGES ARE SUBTLE...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS ARE NOT JUSTIFIED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

AS PWATS INCREASE TOWARD 2 INCHES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F EACH
DAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS...PERHAPS REMAINING AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION
OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG. MOS GUIDANCE IS MOST PESSIMISTIC AT
KSAV WHERE THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM 08-13Z...BUT PREFER TO KEEP KCHS VFR AND JUST HINT AT SOME
REDUCED 6SM VISIBILITIES AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE SAME
08-13Z TIME FRAME UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL STEADILY VEER TO MORE SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF 4 FT HEIGHTS BEYOND 40 NM.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
INCLUDING THE LAND BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15
KT AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD
THE S/SW AT 10-15 KT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S/SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ENHANCED BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AS HIGH AS 15 KT AND
BY NOCTURNAL SURGES AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-3
FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ/WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 302356
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
756 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FOCUS FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO ADVECT INLAND ALONG SOME OF
THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA...TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION WITHIN CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND PATCHY AT BEST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE MILD...REACHING THE MID TO LOW 70S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNDER DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE...TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE MOISTURE
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES EACH MORNING...THEN DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE EACH AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE PER DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION EACH NIGHT.

DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...LIMITED POPS TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 30/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...
THESE CHANGES ARE SUBTLE...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS ARE NOT JUSTIFIED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

AS PWATS INCREASE TOWARD 2 INCHES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F EACH
DAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS...PERHAPS REMAINING AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION
OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG. MOS GUIDANCE IS MOST PESSIMISTIC AT
KSAV WHERE THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM 08-13Z...BUT PREFER TO KEEP KCHS VFR AND JUST HINT AT SOME
REDUCED 6SM VISIBILITIES AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE SAME
08-13Z TIME FRAME UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL STEADILY VEER TO MORE SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF 4 FT HEIGHTS BEYOND 40 NM.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
INCLUDING THE LAND BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15
KT AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD
THE S/SW AT 10-15 KT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S/SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ENHANCED BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AS HIGH AS 15 KT AND
BY NOCTURNAL SURGES AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-3
FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ/WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 302356
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
756 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FOCUS FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO ADVECT INLAND ALONG SOME OF
THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA...TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION WITHIN CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND PATCHY AT BEST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE MILD...REACHING THE MID TO LOW 70S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNDER DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE...TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE MOISTURE
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES EACH MORNING...THEN DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE EACH AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE PER DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION EACH NIGHT.

DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...LIMITED POPS TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 30/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...
THESE CHANGES ARE SUBTLE...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS ARE NOT JUSTIFIED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

AS PWATS INCREASE TOWARD 2 INCHES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F EACH
DAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS...PERHAPS REMAINING AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION
OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG. MOS GUIDANCE IS MOST PESSIMISTIC AT
KSAV WHERE THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM 08-13Z...BUT PREFER TO KEEP KCHS VFR AND JUST HINT AT SOME
REDUCED 6SM VISIBILITIES AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE SAME
08-13Z TIME FRAME UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL STEADILY VEER TO MORE SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF 4 FT HEIGHTS BEYOND 40 NM.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
INCLUDING THE LAND BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15
KT AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD
THE S/SW AT 10-15 KT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S/SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ENHANCED BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AS HIGH AS 15 KT AND
BY NOCTURNAL SURGES AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-3
FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ/WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 302356
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
756 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FOCUS FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO ADVECT INLAND ALONG SOME OF
THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA...TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION WITHIN CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND PATCHY AT BEST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE MILD...REACHING THE MID TO LOW 70S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNDER DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE...TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE MOISTURE
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES EACH MORNING...THEN DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE EACH AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE PER DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION EACH NIGHT.

DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...LIMITED POPS TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 30/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...
THESE CHANGES ARE SUBTLE...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS ARE NOT JUSTIFIED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

AS PWATS INCREASE TOWARD 2 INCHES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F EACH
DAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS...PERHAPS REMAINING AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION
OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG. MOS GUIDANCE IS MOST PESSIMISTIC AT
KSAV WHERE THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM 08-13Z...BUT PREFER TO KEEP KCHS VFR AND JUST HINT AT SOME
REDUCED 6SM VISIBILITIES AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE SAME
08-13Z TIME FRAME UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL STEADILY VEER TO MORE SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF 4 FT HEIGHTS BEYOND 40 NM.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
INCLUDING THE LAND BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15
KT AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD
THE S/SW AT 10-15 KT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S/SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ENHANCED BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AS HIGH AS 15 KT AND
BY NOCTURNAL SURGES AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-3
FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ/WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities