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000
FXUS62 KCHS 062022
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
422 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND MAY BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST NEAR THE BAHAMAS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD WELL OFF THE GEORGIA COAST...LIKELY TRYING
TO ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN A BIT. THIS WILL PUSH DEEP MOISTURE
TOWARD THE SC COAST AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT ONSHORE BY
DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AND SLOWLY
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND IN ANY SHOWERS WHERE
GUSTS COULD BE NEAR 30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST AND ITS EVENTUAL
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INDICATED
A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

THERE REMAINS SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS NORTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
APPROACHES THE AREA THURSDAY. MOST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE PICKS UP ON
A DEVELOPING LOW CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. AS A
RESULT...A MORE EASTWARD TRACK OF THE LOW IS INITIALLY SUGGESTED BY
THE LATEST 12Z NAM AND GFS MODELS AS WELL AS THE LATEST ECMWF.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST 12Z INVEST INITIATED THE MAIN LOW CIRCULATION
NORTHWEST OF THE BAHAMAS...WHICH EVENTUALLY CLUSTERS THE TRACK OF
THE LOW MUCH CLOSER TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. REGARDLESS OF WHERE
THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION DEVELOPS...THE BIGGEST FACTOR IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH.

LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD WHILE
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS WEAKENED...GAIN TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS WHILE PASSING OVER WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS AND
ENCOUNTERING LESS DEEP LAYER SHEAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN
MEANDER AROUND LATITUDE 32 NORTH BEFORE MAKING A WESTWARD TURN AS
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS SCENARIO DOES PUT THE CENTER OF THE LOW CLOSER OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH EVEN SOME MODELS
SUGGESTING A RETROGRADING LOW VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST INTO SATURDAY.
GIVEN THIS LATEST SCENARIO...THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING....AND SOME BEACH EROSION. DESPITE BEING ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM INITIALLY...A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND PERHAPS
IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD THE LOW MAKE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHIFT WESTWARD AND MEANDER OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN HOW FAR NORTH
THE SYSTEM REACHES BEFORE MAKING A SHIFT WEST AND HOW FAR WEST THE
SYSTEM TRACKS THEREAFTER TO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...ONLY SLIGHT INCREASES TO
THE OVERALL POP TREND HAS BEEN INDICATED IN THE LATEST FORECAST
PACKAGE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD IS FOR WARMING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. WE MAY ALSO SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SURFACE HEATING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS MAY FILL IN SOME AS LOW
LEVEL RH INCREASES OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
AS CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10 KFT. THE SURFACE INVERSION WILL
LEAD TO DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BECOME
GUSTY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING AND THE MIXED LAYER
DEVELOPS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AT KCHS
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK AS DEEP MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS...BASED ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK TO NORTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHWARD JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. GUSTS 25-30 KT AND
SEAS 6-9 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS/SEAS OFFSHORE... WILL WARRANT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EVERYWHERE EXCEPT CHARLESTON HARBOR WHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS. CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY GALE WARNINGS
AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS OF NOW...THE PREFERRED TRACK IS FOR
THE SYSTEM TO PASS JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS INITIALLY AS IT
SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO THE WATERS ON THURSDAY THAT
PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DO NOT
EXPLICITLY FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME TROPICAL IN NATURE.
AT THE VERY LEAST...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS...AND POSSIBLY FOR THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE IMPROVING ENOUGH TO WHERE WE SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS STARTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER
COASTAL WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE CENTER
OF THE LOW. STAY TUNED TO FORECAST UPDATES AS WELL AS DETAILS FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

RIP CURRENTS...STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH INCREASING SWELL AND MULTIPLE
REPORTS OF RIP CURRENTS OBSERVED TODAY...WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ON THURSDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWS OFF THE
COAST. THE RISK MAY THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE OFFSHORE AND NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TIDES
ALONG THE COAST...ALTHOUGH SHOULD NOT REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. TIDE
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HIGH
TIDES...ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS AROUND THE SAME TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
     THURSDAY EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
     THURSDAY EVENING FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB/BSH
AVIATION...RJB/DPB
MARINE...RJB/DPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJB/DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 062022
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
422 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND MAY BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST NEAR THE BAHAMAS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD WELL OFF THE GEORGIA COAST...LIKELY TRYING
TO ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN A BIT. THIS WILL PUSH DEEP MOISTURE
TOWARD THE SC COAST AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT ONSHORE BY
DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AND SLOWLY
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND IN ANY SHOWERS WHERE
GUSTS COULD BE NEAR 30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST AND ITS EVENTUAL
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INDICATED
A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

THERE REMAINS SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS NORTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
APPROACHES THE AREA THURSDAY. MOST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE PICKS UP ON
A DEVELOPING LOW CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. AS A
RESULT...A MORE EASTWARD TRACK OF THE LOW IS INITIALLY SUGGESTED BY
THE LATEST 12Z NAM AND GFS MODELS AS WELL AS THE LATEST ECMWF.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST 12Z INVEST INITIATED THE MAIN LOW CIRCULATION
NORTHWEST OF THE BAHAMAS...WHICH EVENTUALLY CLUSTERS THE TRACK OF
THE LOW MUCH CLOSER TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. REGARDLESS OF WHERE
THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION DEVELOPS...THE BIGGEST FACTOR IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH.

LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD WHILE
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS WEAKENED...GAIN TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS WHILE PASSING OVER WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS AND
ENCOUNTERING LESS DEEP LAYER SHEAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN
MEANDER AROUND LATITUDE 32 NORTH BEFORE MAKING A WESTWARD TURN AS
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS SCENARIO DOES PUT THE CENTER OF THE LOW CLOSER OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH EVEN SOME MODELS
SUGGESTING A RETROGRADING LOW VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST INTO SATURDAY.
GIVEN THIS LATEST SCENARIO...THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING....AND SOME BEACH EROSION. DESPITE BEING ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM INITIALLY...A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND PERHAPS
IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD THE LOW MAKE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHIFT WESTWARD AND MEANDER OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN HOW FAR NORTH
THE SYSTEM REACHES BEFORE MAKING A SHIFT WEST AND HOW FAR WEST THE
SYSTEM TRACKS THEREAFTER TO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...ONLY SLIGHT INCREASES TO
THE OVERALL POP TREND HAS BEEN INDICATED IN THE LATEST FORECAST
PACKAGE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD IS FOR WARMING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. WE MAY ALSO SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SURFACE HEATING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS MAY FILL IN SOME AS LOW
LEVEL RH INCREASES OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
AS CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10 KFT. THE SURFACE INVERSION WILL
LEAD TO DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BECOME
GUSTY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING AND THE MIXED LAYER
DEVELOPS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AT KCHS
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK AS DEEP MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS...BASED ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK TO NORTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHWARD JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. GUSTS 25-30 KT AND
SEAS 6-9 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS/SEAS OFFSHORE... WILL WARRANT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EVERYWHERE EXCEPT CHARLESTON HARBOR WHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS. CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY GALE WARNINGS
AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS OF NOW...THE PREFERRED TRACK IS FOR
THE SYSTEM TO PASS JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS INITIALLY AS IT
SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO THE WATERS ON THURSDAY THAT
PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DO NOT
EXPLICITLY FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME TROPICAL IN NATURE.
AT THE VERY LEAST...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS...AND POSSIBLY FOR THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE IMPROVING ENOUGH TO WHERE WE SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS STARTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER
COASTAL WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE CENTER
OF THE LOW. STAY TUNED TO FORECAST UPDATES AS WELL AS DETAILS FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

RIP CURRENTS...STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH INCREASING SWELL AND MULTIPLE
REPORTS OF RIP CURRENTS OBSERVED TODAY...WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ON THURSDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWS OFF THE
COAST. THE RISK MAY THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE OFFSHORE AND NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TIDES
ALONG THE COAST...ALTHOUGH SHOULD NOT REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. TIDE
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HIGH
TIDES...ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS AROUND THE SAME TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
     THURSDAY EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
     THURSDAY EVENING FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB/BSH
AVIATION...RJB/DPB
MARINE...RJB/DPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJB/DPB


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KFFC 061912
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
312 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
SHORT TERM BUT IT DOES BREAK DOWN WITH APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD... EVEN WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING JUST
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
REGION... EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE AREA BUT WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. INCREASED ATLANTIC
MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TODAY AND IT WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH MAINLY SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY DUE TO UPSLOPING FLOW BUT NO
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE A BIT THU ACROSS
THAT AREA BUT NOTHING MAJOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THINGS SUBDUED.
AS FAR AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM GOES...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE
MAIN LOW CENTER CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BY 18Z THU IT SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST. IT
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z FRI TO JUST OFF
THE SC COAST JUST SE OF MYRTLE BEACH. GA STAYS ON THE CLEAN SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM AND SHOULD NOT BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED FROM THIS IN THE
SHORT TERM.

01


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS WITH THIS
CYCLE. STILL NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN A BIT SCATTERED WITH RESPECT TO THIS
SYSTEM...BUT ALL ARE POINTING TO SOME DEGREE OF DEEPENING AS THE LOW
DRIFTS NORTH ALONG OR JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST. MAY SEE ENOUGH
MOISTURE PUSHED INTO THE FAR EAST FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRAGGING A
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE WITH WEAKENING UPPER RIDGING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION. UPPER DYNAMICS
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH DRY AIR WE SEE IN THE WAKE OF THE
ATLANTIC SYSTEM SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

20

&&


AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO KEEP THE TAF SITES DRY.
NOTICING SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE STATE
BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR LIMITS AND DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL ARE
OUT OF THE SE BUT WILL TURN TO THE NE OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THU. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  84  58  84 /   0   0   5  20
ATLANTA         60  84  61  84 /   0   5   0  10
BLAIRSVILLE     53  80  55  81 /   0  20   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    56  84  56  85 /   0   5   0   5
COLUMBUS        58  86  57  88 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     59  82  59  83 /   0   5   0  20
MACON           57  85  57  87 /   0   0   0  10
ROME            56  85  56  86 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  55  84  57  85 /   0   5   0  10
VIDALIA         61  83  62  84 /   5  10  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 061912
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
312 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
SHORT TERM BUT IT DOES BREAK DOWN WITH APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD... EVEN WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING JUST
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
REGION... EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE AREA BUT WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. INCREASED ATLANTIC
MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TODAY AND IT WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH MAINLY SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY DUE TO UPSLOPING FLOW BUT NO
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE A BIT THU ACROSS
THAT AREA BUT NOTHING MAJOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THINGS SUBDUED.
AS FAR AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM GOES...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE
MAIN LOW CENTER CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BY 18Z THU IT SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST. IT
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z FRI TO JUST OFF
THE SC COAST JUST SE OF MYRTLE BEACH. GA STAYS ON THE CLEAN SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM AND SHOULD NOT BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED FROM THIS IN THE
SHORT TERM.

01


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS WITH THIS
CYCLE. STILL NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN A BIT SCATTERED WITH RESPECT TO THIS
SYSTEM...BUT ALL ARE POINTING TO SOME DEGREE OF DEEPENING AS THE LOW
DRIFTS NORTH ALONG OR JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST. MAY SEE ENOUGH
MOISTURE PUSHED INTO THE FAR EAST FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRAGGING A
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE WITH WEAKENING UPPER RIDGING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION. UPPER DYNAMICS
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH DRY AIR WE SEE IN THE WAKE OF THE
ATLANTIC SYSTEM SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

20

&&


AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO KEEP THE TAF SITES DRY.
NOTICING SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE STATE
BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR LIMITS AND DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL ARE
OUT OF THE SE BUT WILL TURN TO THE NE OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THU. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  84  58  84 /   0   0   5  20
ATLANTA         60  84  61  84 /   0   5   0  10
BLAIRSVILLE     53  80  55  81 /   0  20   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    56  84  56  85 /   0   5   0   5
COLUMBUS        58  86  57  88 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     59  82  59  83 /   0   5   0  20
MACON           57  85  57  87 /   0   0   0  10
ROME            56  85  56  86 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  55  84  57  85 /   0   5   0  10
VIDALIA         61  83  62  84 /   5  10  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 061912
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
312 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
SHORT TERM BUT IT DOES BREAK DOWN WITH APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD... EVEN WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING JUST
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
REGION... EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE AREA BUT WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. INCREASED ATLANTIC
MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TODAY AND IT WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH MAINLY SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY DUE TO UPSLOPING FLOW BUT NO
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE A BIT THU ACROSS
THAT AREA BUT NOTHING MAJOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THINGS SUBDUED.
AS FAR AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM GOES...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE
MAIN LOW CENTER CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BY 18Z THU IT SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST. IT
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z FRI TO JUST OFF
THE SC COAST JUST SE OF MYRTLE BEACH. GA STAYS ON THE CLEAN SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM AND SHOULD NOT BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED FROM THIS IN THE
SHORT TERM.

01


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS WITH THIS
CYCLE. STILL NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN A BIT SCATTERED WITH RESPECT TO THIS
SYSTEM...BUT ALL ARE POINTING TO SOME DEGREE OF DEEPENING AS THE LOW
DRIFTS NORTH ALONG OR JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST. MAY SEE ENOUGH
MOISTURE PUSHED INTO THE FAR EAST FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRAGGING A
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE WITH WEAKENING UPPER RIDGING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION. UPPER DYNAMICS
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH DRY AIR WE SEE IN THE WAKE OF THE
ATLANTIC SYSTEM SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

20

&&


AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO KEEP THE TAF SITES DRY.
NOTICING SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE STATE
BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR LIMITS AND DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL ARE
OUT OF THE SE BUT WILL TURN TO THE NE OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THU. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  84  58  84 /   0   0   5  20
ATLANTA         60  84  61  84 /   0   5   0  10
BLAIRSVILLE     53  80  55  81 /   0  20   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    56  84  56  85 /   0   5   0   5
COLUMBUS        58  86  57  88 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     59  82  59  83 /   0   5   0  20
MACON           57  85  57  87 /   0   0   0  10
ROME            56  85  56  86 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  55  84  57  85 /   0   5   0  10
VIDALIA         61  83  62  84 /   5  10  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 061912
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
312 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
SHORT TERM BUT IT DOES BREAK DOWN WITH APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD... EVEN WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING JUST
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
REGION... EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE AREA BUT WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. INCREASED ATLANTIC
MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TODAY AND IT WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH MAINLY SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY DUE TO UPSLOPING FLOW BUT NO
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE A BIT THU ACROSS
THAT AREA BUT NOTHING MAJOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THINGS SUBDUED.
AS FAR AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM GOES...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE
MAIN LOW CENTER CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BY 18Z THU IT SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST. IT
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z FRI TO JUST OFF
THE SC COAST JUST SE OF MYRTLE BEACH. GA STAYS ON THE CLEAN SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM AND SHOULD NOT BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED FROM THIS IN THE
SHORT TERM.

01


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS WITH THIS
CYCLE. STILL NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN A BIT SCATTERED WITH RESPECT TO THIS
SYSTEM...BUT ALL ARE POINTING TO SOME DEGREE OF DEEPENING AS THE LOW
DRIFTS NORTH ALONG OR JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST. MAY SEE ENOUGH
MOISTURE PUSHED INTO THE FAR EAST FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRAGGING A
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE WITH WEAKENING UPPER RIDGING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION. UPPER DYNAMICS
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH DRY AIR WE SEE IN THE WAKE OF THE
ATLANTIC SYSTEM SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

20

&&


AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO KEEP THE TAF SITES DRY.
NOTICING SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE STATE
BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR LIMITS AND DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL ARE
OUT OF THE SE BUT WILL TURN TO THE NE OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THU. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  84  58  84 /   0   0   5  20
ATLANTA         60  84  61  84 /   0   5   0  10
BLAIRSVILLE     53  80  55  81 /   0  20   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    56  84  56  85 /   0   5   0   5
COLUMBUS        58  86  57  88 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     59  82  59  83 /   0   5   0  20
MACON           57  85  57  87 /   0   0   0  10
ROME            56  85  56  86 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  55  84  57  85 /   0   5   0  10
VIDALIA         61  83  62  84 /   5  10  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...01


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCAE 061846
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
246 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE NORTH TO
COASTAL GEORGIA THURSDAY THEN TO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY.
THE LOW WILL STALL OFFSHORE OF SC THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST MOVING
NORTH TOWARDS THE GA COAST TONIGHT. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OFFSHORE LOW WILL BEGINNING THE DAY OFFSHORE OF SAVANNAH AND REACH
THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA THURSDAY EVENING CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DEEPEN
AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD. THURSDAY NIGHT THE LOW STALLS OFFSHORE OF
MYRTLE BEACH AND BEGINS DRIFTING WESTWARD. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFFSHORE AND CONTINUE
SPREADING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THE RELATIVELY
COOL WATER TEMPERATURES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS
INTENSIFICATION. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM AND CURRENTLY FORECASTS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
WIND AND TIDAL CONCERNS ALONG THE COAST THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH UP TO ONE HALF
INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
FOR THE MIDLANDS. CONCERN WITH RAINFALL WILL BE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR HEATING AND DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WOULD CHANGE THE ACCUMULATIONS GREATLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ELSEWHERE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COASTAL LOW
LINGERING WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OFFSHORE OF SC SATURDAY
THEN BEGIN SLOWLY EJECTING NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. GFS REMAINS SLOWEST EJECTING THE LOW SO HAVE TRENDED THE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME TOWARD THE ECMWF. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY AND MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. CONCERN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE
POSITION AND PROGRESSION OF THE COASTAL LOW. WITH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND DIURNAL HEATING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS...WILL
CONTINUE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN MODELS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WILL DRIFT NORTH TO THE SC
COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL START MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS
AROUND AGS AT SUNRISE. SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODELS ARE TRENDING TO KEEP THE
SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE COAST AND TAKING IT TOWARD THE OUTER
BANKS FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE LITTLE IMPACTS OVER THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 061846
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
246 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE NORTH TO
COASTAL GEORGIA THURSDAY THEN TO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY.
THE LOW WILL STALL OFFSHORE OF SC THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST MOVING
NORTH TOWARDS THE GA COAST TONIGHT. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OFFSHORE LOW WILL BEGINNING THE DAY OFFSHORE OF SAVANNAH AND REACH
THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA THURSDAY EVENING CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DEEPEN
AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD. THURSDAY NIGHT THE LOW STALLS OFFSHORE OF
MYRTLE BEACH AND BEGINS DRIFTING WESTWARD. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFFSHORE AND CONTINUE
SPREADING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THE RELATIVELY
COOL WATER TEMPERATURES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS
INTENSIFICATION. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM AND CURRENTLY FORECASTS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
WIND AND TIDAL CONCERNS ALONG THE COAST THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH UP TO ONE HALF
INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
FOR THE MIDLANDS. CONCERN WITH RAINFALL WILL BE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR HEATING AND DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WOULD CHANGE THE ACCUMULATIONS GREATLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ELSEWHERE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COASTAL LOW
LINGERING WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OFFSHORE OF SC SATURDAY
THEN BEGIN SLOWLY EJECTING NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. GFS REMAINS SLOWEST EJECTING THE LOW SO HAVE TRENDED THE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME TOWARD THE ECMWF. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY AND MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. CONCERN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE
POSITION AND PROGRESSION OF THE COASTAL LOW. WITH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND DIURNAL HEATING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS...WILL
CONTINUE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN MODELS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WILL DRIFT NORTH TO THE SC
COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL START MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS
AROUND AGS AT SUNRISE. SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODELS ARE TRENDING TO KEEP THE
SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE COAST AND TAKING IT TOWARD THE OUTER
BANKS FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE LITTLE IMPACTS OVER THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCHS 061810
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
210 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND MAY BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMED TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE SO NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND TRACK NORTHWARD.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA RAIN-FREE TODAY ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE...MAINLY ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE. SHOULD BE DECENT COVERAGE
OF CUMULUS AND STRATOCU AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. FAR INLAND
AREAS WILL GENERALLY SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE AND WARMEST TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY/GUSTY...MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST WHERE GUSTS WILL BE NEAR 25 MPH.

TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM NEARING 30 DEGREES NORTH BY
DAYBREAK MAY BEGIN TO TAKE BETTER TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
UPPER SHEAR DECREASES OVER THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE. POPS COULD QUICKLY RAMP UP ALONG
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS EAST OF LINE FROM BEAUFORT TO SUMMERVILLE
TO JAMESTOWN LATE AS A FLUX OF DEEP ATLC MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES SOMETIME NEARING DAYBREAK. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TONIGHT PRODUCING BUILDING
NORTHERLY BREEZES ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...THE DETAILS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HINGE GREATLY ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ITS EVENTUAL
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THE SUITE OF MODELS APPEAR TO BE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A
SIMILAR SOLUTION. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS TRACK NOW TAKES THE LOW
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL WESTWARD SLIDE...AND HAS IT
CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR 33N/78W BY LATE SATURDAY. SUCH A POSITION
WOULD PUT THE CENTER ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF CHARLESTON COUNTY. FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...THE 00Z/06
ECMWF WAS THE FAVORED SOLUTION AS IT FOLLOWS THIS SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK VERY CLOSELY. THE REASON THE ECMWF IS FAVORED IS DUE TO ITS
MINIMAL WESTWARD JOG WITH THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE DEEP RIDGE ALOFT. ALSO...IT STANDS TO REASON
THAT HAVING THE LOW RETROGRADE AWAY FROM THE WARMER WATERS OF THE
GULF STREAM SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE ABSENCE OF A PROMINENT STEERING
FEATURE TO THE EAST.

NOW THAT WE HAVE STARTED TO SOLIDIFY THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THE
GENERAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THE QUESTION OF THE CHARACTERIZATION
REMAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT UNDER WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING
SEEMS TO BE POINTING TOWARDS EITHER SOME TYPE OF SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
OR PERHAPS EVEN PURELY TROPICAL. AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD...THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY AND REMAINS AS SUCH THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE GULF STREAM
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AS WELL. FURTHERMORE...PHASE
DIAGRAM ANALYSES CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WARM CORE SYSTEM. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS INCREASED THE OUTLOOK TO MODERATE FOR
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN ITS 5 DAY OUTLOOK...AND A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MAY EXPLORE THE STORM LATER TODAY.

HOWEVER...ITS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
THE SYSTEM REMAINS PURELY EXTRATROPICAL OR BECOMES A CLASSIFIED
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME GIVEN
THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SLOW NORTHWARD AND WELL OFFSHORE TRACK. SUCH
A TRACK WOULD SOLIDLY PUT THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WEAKER AND DRIER
SIDE OF THE STORM. IN FACT...THE PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
LIMIT ALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO THE TRI-COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EASTERN CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTLINE. IN FACT...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WOULD INCREASINGLY BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH TIME
WHICH WOULD FAVOR A WARMING TREND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED AND HAVE ESSENTIALLY
BEEN LIMITED TO JUST THE TRI-COUNTY REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OFF THE COAST THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE...THE STRONGEST
WINDS REMAIN OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ONSET OF THE BEST HEATING. IF THIS PREFERRED SOLUTION WORKS
OUT...IT APPEARS THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR COASTAL HAZARDS SUCH AS
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AND
OFFSHORE. ALL ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL AS ANY GUIDANCE
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OFFSHORE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETTING UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIOD IS FOR WARMING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. WE MAY ALSO
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SURFACE HEATING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS MAY FILL IN SOME AS LOW
LEVEL RH INCREASES OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
AS CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10 KFT. THE SURFACE INVERSION WILL
LEAD TO DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BECOME
GUSTY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING AND THE MIXED LAYER
DEVELOPS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AT KCHS
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK AS DEEP MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT KCHS...BASED ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A COMPLEX AND LOWER CONFIDENCE COASTAL WATERS PACKAGE TAKING SHAPE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE
SOUTH WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY EARLY THURSDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. WE KNOW THE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO PINCH AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS SOME WEAK
INLAND RIDGING WHILE PRESSURES FALL ALONG AND OFF THE COAST AHEAD
OF THE LOW. WE CONTINUED TO SHOW A DETERIORATION FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WAVES SLOWLY BUILD TODAY AND THEN SHARPER INCREASES IN
WINDS AND SEAS OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY AND
THEN ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR
THE REST OF THE WATERS. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT WITHIN 20 NM
WHILE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE STREAM PERHAPS REACH OR
EXCEED 10 FT BY DAWN ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST AND ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS OF NOW...THE PREFERRED TRACK IS
FOR THE SYSTEM TO PASS WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DO NOT EXPLICITLY
FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME TROPICAL IN NATURE. AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR ALL OF THE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY FOR THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN HOISTED WITH ENDING TIMES BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. STAY TUNED
TO FORECAST UPDATES AS WELL AS DETAILS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME 2-3 FT SWELL EVERY 8-9 SECONDS.
ROBUST LONGSHORE CURRENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY ALL BEACHES. AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWS OFF THE COAST. THE RISK
MAY THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AND NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TIDES
ALONG THE COAST. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE 5.9 FT MLLW IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR THE NEXT COUPLE EVENINGS. THE N WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY WILL
PUSH TIDES ABOVE THAT LEVEL...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
ENOUGH SURGE TO PUSH THAT TO 7.0 FT AT DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. TIDE
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 061810
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
210 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND MAY BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMED TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE SO NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND TRACK NORTHWARD.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA RAIN-FREE TODAY ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE...MAINLY ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE. SHOULD BE DECENT COVERAGE
OF CUMULUS AND STRATOCU AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. FAR INLAND
AREAS WILL GENERALLY SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE AND WARMEST TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY/GUSTY...MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST WHERE GUSTS WILL BE NEAR 25 MPH.

TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM NEARING 30 DEGREES NORTH BY
DAYBREAK MAY BEGIN TO TAKE BETTER TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
UPPER SHEAR DECREASES OVER THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE. POPS COULD QUICKLY RAMP UP ALONG
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS EAST OF LINE FROM BEAUFORT TO SUMMERVILLE
TO JAMESTOWN LATE AS A FLUX OF DEEP ATLC MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES SOMETIME NEARING DAYBREAK. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TONIGHT PRODUCING BUILDING
NORTHERLY BREEZES ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...THE DETAILS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HINGE GREATLY ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ITS EVENTUAL
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THE SUITE OF MODELS APPEAR TO BE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A
SIMILAR SOLUTION. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS TRACK NOW TAKES THE LOW
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL WESTWARD SLIDE...AND HAS IT
CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR 33N/78W BY LATE SATURDAY. SUCH A POSITION
WOULD PUT THE CENTER ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF CHARLESTON COUNTY. FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...THE 00Z/06
ECMWF WAS THE FAVORED SOLUTION AS IT FOLLOWS THIS SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK VERY CLOSELY. THE REASON THE ECMWF IS FAVORED IS DUE TO ITS
MINIMAL WESTWARD JOG WITH THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE DEEP RIDGE ALOFT. ALSO...IT STANDS TO REASON
THAT HAVING THE LOW RETROGRADE AWAY FROM THE WARMER WATERS OF THE
GULF STREAM SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE ABSENCE OF A PROMINENT STEERING
FEATURE TO THE EAST.

NOW THAT WE HAVE STARTED TO SOLIDIFY THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THE
GENERAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THE QUESTION OF THE CHARACTERIZATION
REMAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT UNDER WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING
SEEMS TO BE POINTING TOWARDS EITHER SOME TYPE OF SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
OR PERHAPS EVEN PURELY TROPICAL. AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD...THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY AND REMAINS AS SUCH THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE GULF STREAM
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AS WELL. FURTHERMORE...PHASE
DIAGRAM ANALYSES CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WARM CORE SYSTEM. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS INCREASED THE OUTLOOK TO MODERATE FOR
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN ITS 5 DAY OUTLOOK...AND A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MAY EXPLORE THE STORM LATER TODAY.

HOWEVER...ITS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
THE SYSTEM REMAINS PURELY EXTRATROPICAL OR BECOMES A CLASSIFIED
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME GIVEN
THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SLOW NORTHWARD AND WELL OFFSHORE TRACK. SUCH
A TRACK WOULD SOLIDLY PUT THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WEAKER AND DRIER
SIDE OF THE STORM. IN FACT...THE PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
LIMIT ALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO THE TRI-COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EASTERN CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTLINE. IN FACT...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WOULD INCREASINGLY BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH TIME
WHICH WOULD FAVOR A WARMING TREND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED AND HAVE ESSENTIALLY
BEEN LIMITED TO JUST THE TRI-COUNTY REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OFF THE COAST THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE...THE STRONGEST
WINDS REMAIN OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ONSET OF THE BEST HEATING. IF THIS PREFERRED SOLUTION WORKS
OUT...IT APPEARS THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR COASTAL HAZARDS SUCH AS
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AND
OFFSHORE. ALL ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL AS ANY GUIDANCE
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OFFSHORE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETTING UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIOD IS FOR WARMING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. WE MAY ALSO
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SURFACE HEATING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS MAY FILL IN SOME AS LOW
LEVEL RH INCREASES OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
AS CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10 KFT. THE SURFACE INVERSION WILL
LEAD TO DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BECOME
GUSTY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING AND THE MIXED LAYER
DEVELOPS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AT KCHS
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK AS DEEP MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT KCHS...BASED ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A COMPLEX AND LOWER CONFIDENCE COASTAL WATERS PACKAGE TAKING SHAPE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE
SOUTH WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY EARLY THURSDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. WE KNOW THE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO PINCH AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS SOME WEAK
INLAND RIDGING WHILE PRESSURES FALL ALONG AND OFF THE COAST AHEAD
OF THE LOW. WE CONTINUED TO SHOW A DETERIORATION FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WAVES SLOWLY BUILD TODAY AND THEN SHARPER INCREASES IN
WINDS AND SEAS OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY AND
THEN ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR
THE REST OF THE WATERS. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT WITHIN 20 NM
WHILE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE STREAM PERHAPS REACH OR
EXCEED 10 FT BY DAWN ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST AND ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS OF NOW...THE PREFERRED TRACK IS
FOR THE SYSTEM TO PASS WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DO NOT EXPLICITLY
FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME TROPICAL IN NATURE. AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR ALL OF THE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY FOR THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN HOISTED WITH ENDING TIMES BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. STAY TUNED
TO FORECAST UPDATES AS WELL AS DETAILS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME 2-3 FT SWELL EVERY 8-9 SECONDS.
ROBUST LONGSHORE CURRENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY ALL BEACHES. AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWS OFF THE COAST. THE RISK
MAY THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AND NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TIDES
ALONG THE COAST. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE 5.9 FT MLLW IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR THE NEXT COUPLE EVENINGS. THE N WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY WILL
PUSH TIDES ABOVE THAT LEVEL...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
ENOUGH SURGE TO PUSH THAT TO 7.0 FT AT DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. TIDE
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 061810
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
210 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND MAY BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMED TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE SO NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND TRACK NORTHWARD.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA RAIN-FREE TODAY ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE...MAINLY ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE. SHOULD BE DECENT COVERAGE
OF CUMULUS AND STRATOCU AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. FAR INLAND
AREAS WILL GENERALLY SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE AND WARMEST TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY/GUSTY...MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST WHERE GUSTS WILL BE NEAR 25 MPH.

TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM NEARING 30 DEGREES NORTH BY
DAYBREAK MAY BEGIN TO TAKE BETTER TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
UPPER SHEAR DECREASES OVER THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE. POPS COULD QUICKLY RAMP UP ALONG
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS EAST OF LINE FROM BEAUFORT TO SUMMERVILLE
TO JAMESTOWN LATE AS A FLUX OF DEEP ATLC MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES SOMETIME NEARING DAYBREAK. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TONIGHT PRODUCING BUILDING
NORTHERLY BREEZES ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...THE DETAILS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HINGE GREATLY ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ITS EVENTUAL
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THE SUITE OF MODELS APPEAR TO BE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A
SIMILAR SOLUTION. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS TRACK NOW TAKES THE LOW
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL WESTWARD SLIDE...AND HAS IT
CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR 33N/78W BY LATE SATURDAY. SUCH A POSITION
WOULD PUT THE CENTER ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF CHARLESTON COUNTY. FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...THE 00Z/06
ECMWF WAS THE FAVORED SOLUTION AS IT FOLLOWS THIS SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK VERY CLOSELY. THE REASON THE ECMWF IS FAVORED IS DUE TO ITS
MINIMAL WESTWARD JOG WITH THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE DEEP RIDGE ALOFT. ALSO...IT STANDS TO REASON
THAT HAVING THE LOW RETROGRADE AWAY FROM THE WARMER WATERS OF THE
GULF STREAM SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE ABSENCE OF A PROMINENT STEERING
FEATURE TO THE EAST.

NOW THAT WE HAVE STARTED TO SOLIDIFY THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THE
GENERAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THE QUESTION OF THE CHARACTERIZATION
REMAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT UNDER WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING
SEEMS TO BE POINTING TOWARDS EITHER SOME TYPE OF SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
OR PERHAPS EVEN PURELY TROPICAL. AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD...THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY AND REMAINS AS SUCH THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE GULF STREAM
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AS WELL. FURTHERMORE...PHASE
DIAGRAM ANALYSES CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WARM CORE SYSTEM. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS INCREASED THE OUTLOOK TO MODERATE FOR
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN ITS 5 DAY OUTLOOK...AND A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MAY EXPLORE THE STORM LATER TODAY.

HOWEVER...ITS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
THE SYSTEM REMAINS PURELY EXTRATROPICAL OR BECOMES A CLASSIFIED
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME GIVEN
THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SLOW NORTHWARD AND WELL OFFSHORE TRACK. SUCH
A TRACK WOULD SOLIDLY PUT THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WEAKER AND DRIER
SIDE OF THE STORM. IN FACT...THE PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
LIMIT ALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO THE TRI-COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EASTERN CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTLINE. IN FACT...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WOULD INCREASINGLY BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH TIME
WHICH WOULD FAVOR A WARMING TREND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED AND HAVE ESSENTIALLY
BEEN LIMITED TO JUST THE TRI-COUNTY REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OFF THE COAST THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE...THE STRONGEST
WINDS REMAIN OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ONSET OF THE BEST HEATING. IF THIS PREFERRED SOLUTION WORKS
OUT...IT APPEARS THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR COASTAL HAZARDS SUCH AS
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AND
OFFSHORE. ALL ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL AS ANY GUIDANCE
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OFFSHORE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETTING UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIOD IS FOR WARMING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. WE MAY ALSO
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SURFACE HEATING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS MAY FILL IN SOME AS LOW
LEVEL RH INCREASES OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
AS CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10 KFT. THE SURFACE INVERSION WILL
LEAD TO DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BECOME
GUSTY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING AND THE MIXED LAYER
DEVELOPS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AT KCHS
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK AS DEEP MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT KCHS...BASED ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A COMPLEX AND LOWER CONFIDENCE COASTAL WATERS PACKAGE TAKING SHAPE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE
SOUTH WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY EARLY THURSDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. WE KNOW THE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO PINCH AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS SOME WEAK
INLAND RIDGING WHILE PRESSURES FALL ALONG AND OFF THE COAST AHEAD
OF THE LOW. WE CONTINUED TO SHOW A DETERIORATION FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WAVES SLOWLY BUILD TODAY AND THEN SHARPER INCREASES IN
WINDS AND SEAS OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY AND
THEN ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR
THE REST OF THE WATERS. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT WITHIN 20 NM
WHILE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE STREAM PERHAPS REACH OR
EXCEED 10 FT BY DAWN ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST AND ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS OF NOW...THE PREFERRED TRACK IS
FOR THE SYSTEM TO PASS WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DO NOT EXPLICITLY
FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME TROPICAL IN NATURE. AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR ALL OF THE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY FOR THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN HOISTED WITH ENDING TIMES BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. STAY TUNED
TO FORECAST UPDATES AS WELL AS DETAILS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME 2-3 FT SWELL EVERY 8-9 SECONDS.
ROBUST LONGSHORE CURRENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY ALL BEACHES. AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWS OFF THE COAST. THE RISK
MAY THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AND NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TIDES
ALONG THE COAST. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE 5.9 FT MLLW IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR THE NEXT COUPLE EVENINGS. THE N WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY WILL
PUSH TIDES ABOVE THAT LEVEL...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
ENOUGH SURGE TO PUSH THAT TO 7.0 FT AT DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. TIDE
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 061810
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
210 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND MAY BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMED TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE SO NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND TRACK NORTHWARD.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA RAIN-FREE TODAY ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE...MAINLY ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE. SHOULD BE DECENT COVERAGE
OF CUMULUS AND STRATOCU AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. FAR INLAND
AREAS WILL GENERALLY SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE AND WARMEST TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY/GUSTY...MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST WHERE GUSTS WILL BE NEAR 25 MPH.

TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM NEARING 30 DEGREES NORTH BY
DAYBREAK MAY BEGIN TO TAKE BETTER TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
UPPER SHEAR DECREASES OVER THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE. POPS COULD QUICKLY RAMP UP ALONG
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS EAST OF LINE FROM BEAUFORT TO SUMMERVILLE
TO JAMESTOWN LATE AS A FLUX OF DEEP ATLC MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES SOMETIME NEARING DAYBREAK. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TONIGHT PRODUCING BUILDING
NORTHERLY BREEZES ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...THE DETAILS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HINGE GREATLY ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ITS EVENTUAL
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THE SUITE OF MODELS APPEAR TO BE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A
SIMILAR SOLUTION. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS TRACK NOW TAKES THE LOW
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL WESTWARD SLIDE...AND HAS IT
CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR 33N/78W BY LATE SATURDAY. SUCH A POSITION
WOULD PUT THE CENTER ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF CHARLESTON COUNTY. FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...THE 00Z/06
ECMWF WAS THE FAVORED SOLUTION AS IT FOLLOWS THIS SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK VERY CLOSELY. THE REASON THE ECMWF IS FAVORED IS DUE TO ITS
MINIMAL WESTWARD JOG WITH THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE DEEP RIDGE ALOFT. ALSO...IT STANDS TO REASON
THAT HAVING THE LOW RETROGRADE AWAY FROM THE WARMER WATERS OF THE
GULF STREAM SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE ABSENCE OF A PROMINENT STEERING
FEATURE TO THE EAST.

NOW THAT WE HAVE STARTED TO SOLIDIFY THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THE
GENERAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THE QUESTION OF THE CHARACTERIZATION
REMAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT UNDER WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING
SEEMS TO BE POINTING TOWARDS EITHER SOME TYPE OF SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
OR PERHAPS EVEN PURELY TROPICAL. AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD...THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY AND REMAINS AS SUCH THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE GULF STREAM
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AS WELL. FURTHERMORE...PHASE
DIAGRAM ANALYSES CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WARM CORE SYSTEM. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS INCREASED THE OUTLOOK TO MODERATE FOR
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN ITS 5 DAY OUTLOOK...AND A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MAY EXPLORE THE STORM LATER TODAY.

HOWEVER...ITS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
THE SYSTEM REMAINS PURELY EXTRATROPICAL OR BECOMES A CLASSIFIED
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME GIVEN
THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SLOW NORTHWARD AND WELL OFFSHORE TRACK. SUCH
A TRACK WOULD SOLIDLY PUT THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WEAKER AND DRIER
SIDE OF THE STORM. IN FACT...THE PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
LIMIT ALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO THE TRI-COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EASTERN CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTLINE. IN FACT...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WOULD INCREASINGLY BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH TIME
WHICH WOULD FAVOR A WARMING TREND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED AND HAVE ESSENTIALLY
BEEN LIMITED TO JUST THE TRI-COUNTY REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OFF THE COAST THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE...THE STRONGEST
WINDS REMAIN OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ONSET OF THE BEST HEATING. IF THIS PREFERRED SOLUTION WORKS
OUT...IT APPEARS THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR COASTAL HAZARDS SUCH AS
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AND
OFFSHORE. ALL ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL AS ANY GUIDANCE
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OFFSHORE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETTING UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIOD IS FOR WARMING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. WE MAY ALSO
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SURFACE HEATING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS MAY FILL IN SOME AS LOW
LEVEL RH INCREASES OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
AS CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10 KFT. THE SURFACE INVERSION WILL
LEAD TO DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BECOME
GUSTY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING AND THE MIXED LAYER
DEVELOPS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AT KCHS
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK AS DEEP MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT KCHS...BASED ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A COMPLEX AND LOWER CONFIDENCE COASTAL WATERS PACKAGE TAKING SHAPE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE
SOUTH WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY EARLY THURSDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. WE KNOW THE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO PINCH AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS SOME WEAK
INLAND RIDGING WHILE PRESSURES FALL ALONG AND OFF THE COAST AHEAD
OF THE LOW. WE CONTINUED TO SHOW A DETERIORATION FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WAVES SLOWLY BUILD TODAY AND THEN SHARPER INCREASES IN
WINDS AND SEAS OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY AND
THEN ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR
THE REST OF THE WATERS. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT WITHIN 20 NM
WHILE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE STREAM PERHAPS REACH OR
EXCEED 10 FT BY DAWN ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST AND ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS OF NOW...THE PREFERRED TRACK IS
FOR THE SYSTEM TO PASS WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DO NOT EXPLICITLY
FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME TROPICAL IN NATURE. AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR ALL OF THE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY FOR THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN HOISTED WITH ENDING TIMES BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. STAY TUNED
TO FORECAST UPDATES AS WELL AS DETAILS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME 2-3 FT SWELL EVERY 8-9 SECONDS.
ROBUST LONGSHORE CURRENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY ALL BEACHES. AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWS OFF THE COAST. THE RISK
MAY THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AND NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TIDES
ALONG THE COAST. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE 5.9 FT MLLW IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR THE NEXT COUPLE EVENINGS. THE N WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY WILL
PUSH TIDES ABOVE THAT LEVEL...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
ENOUGH SURGE TO PUSH THAT TO 7.0 FT AT DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. TIDE
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 061727
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
127 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE NORTH TO
COASTAL GEORGIA THURSDAY THEN TO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW AND INTO FRIDAY AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE OUTERBANKS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST MOVING
NORTH TOWARDS THE GA COAST TONIGHT. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED AND BY THURSDAY MORNING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND BY
THURSDAY EVENING IT WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ALL OF
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BY
TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS
BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY PATH WITH ONLY A LITTLE MOVEMENT
TO THE NW POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND SERN NC THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EAST OF CHARLESTON/SOUTH OF
WILMINGTON. AT THIS TIME THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
FORECASTING A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN 48
HOURS AND A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 5
DAYS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH MORE CLOUDINESS AND HIGHER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR WESTWARD THE
RAINFALL WILL PUSH AND THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE LATEST RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. COASTAL
LOW EXPECTED TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE/ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY AND
MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE GFS
HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GRAND STRAND/NORTH COAST AND
THE ECMWF HAS SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL EJECT THE LOW FROM THE AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH FROPA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY SUBSIDENCE FROM THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WILL DRIFT NORTH TO THE SC
COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL START MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS
AROUND AGS AT SUNRISE. SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODELS ARE TRENDING TO KEEP THE
SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE COAST AND TAKING IT TOWARD THE OUTER
BANKS FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE LITTLE IMPACTS OVER THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 061727
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
127 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE NORTH TO
COASTAL GEORGIA THURSDAY THEN TO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW AND INTO FRIDAY AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE OUTERBANKS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST MOVING
NORTH TOWARDS THE GA COAST TONIGHT. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED AND BY THURSDAY MORNING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND BY
THURSDAY EVENING IT WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ALL OF
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BY
TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS
BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY PATH WITH ONLY A LITTLE MOVEMENT
TO THE NW POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND SERN NC THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EAST OF CHARLESTON/SOUTH OF
WILMINGTON. AT THIS TIME THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
FORECASTING A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN 48
HOURS AND A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 5
DAYS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH MORE CLOUDINESS AND HIGHER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR WESTWARD THE
RAINFALL WILL PUSH AND THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE LATEST RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. COASTAL
LOW EXPECTED TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE/ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY AND
MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE GFS
HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GRAND STRAND/NORTH COAST AND
THE ECMWF HAS SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL EJECT THE LOW FROM THE AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH FROPA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY SUBSIDENCE FROM THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WILL DRIFT NORTH TO THE SC
COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL START MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS
AROUND AGS AT SUNRISE. SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODELS ARE TRENDING TO KEEP THE
SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE COAST AND TAKING IT TOWARD THE OUTER
BANKS FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE LITTLE IMPACTS OVER THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 061727
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
127 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE NORTH TO
COASTAL GEORGIA THURSDAY THEN TO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW AND INTO FRIDAY AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE OUTERBANKS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST MOVING
NORTH TOWARDS THE GA COAST TONIGHT. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED AND BY THURSDAY MORNING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND BY
THURSDAY EVENING IT WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ALL OF
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BY
TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS
BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY PATH WITH ONLY A LITTLE MOVEMENT
TO THE NW POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND SERN NC THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EAST OF CHARLESTON/SOUTH OF
WILMINGTON. AT THIS TIME THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
FORECASTING A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN 48
HOURS AND A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 5
DAYS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH MORE CLOUDINESS AND HIGHER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR WESTWARD THE
RAINFALL WILL PUSH AND THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE LATEST RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. COASTAL
LOW EXPECTED TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE/ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY AND
MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE GFS
HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GRAND STRAND/NORTH COAST AND
THE ECMWF HAS SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL EJECT THE LOW FROM THE AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH FROPA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY SUBSIDENCE FROM THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WILL DRIFT NORTH TO THE SC
COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL START MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS
AROUND AGS AT SUNRISE. SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODELS ARE TRENDING TO KEEP THE
SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE COAST AND TAKING IT TOWARD THE OUTER
BANKS FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE LITTLE IMPACTS OVER THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCHS 061521
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1121 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND MAY BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMED TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE SO NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND TRACK NORTHWARD.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA RAIN-FREE TODAY ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE...MAINLY ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE. SHOULD BE DECENT COVERAGE
OF CUMULUS AND STRATOCU AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. FAR INLAND
AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE AND WARMEST TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY/GUSTY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST
WHERE GUSTS WILL BE NEAR 25 MPH.

TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM NEARING 30 DEGREES NORTH BY
DAYBREAK MAY BEGIN TO TAKE BETTER TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
UPPER SHEAR DECREASES OVER THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE. POPS COULD QUICKLY RAMP UP ALONG
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS EAST OF LINE FROM BEAUFORT TO SUMMERVILLE
TO JAMESTOWN LATE AS A FLUX OF DEEP ATLC MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES SOMETIME NEARING DAYBREAK. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TONIGHT PRODUCING BUILDING
NORTHERLY BREEZES ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...THE DETAILS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HINGE GREATLY ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ITS EVENTUAL
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THE SUITE OF MODELS APPEAR TO BE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A
SIMILAR SOLUTION. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS TRACK NOW TAKES THE LOW
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL WESTWARD SLIDE...AND HAS IT
CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR 33N/78W BY LATE SATURDAY. SUCH A POSITION
WOULD PUT THE CENTER ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF CHARLESTON COUNTY. FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...THE 00Z/06
ECMWF WAS THE FAVORED SOLUTION AS IT FOLLOWS THIS SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK VERY CLOSELY. THE REASON THE ECMWF IS FAVORED IS DUE TO ITS
MINIMAL WESTWARD JOG WITH THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE DEEP RIDGE ALOFT. ALSO...IT STANDS TO REASON
THAT HAVING THE LOW RETROGRADE AWAY FROM THE WARMER WATERS OF THE
GULF STREAM SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE ABSENCE OF A PROMINENT STEERING
FEATURE TO THE EAST.

NOW THAT WE HAVE STARTED TO SOLIDIFY THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THE
GENERAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THE QUESTION OF THE CHARACTERIZATION
REMAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT UNDER WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING
SEEMS TO BE POINTING TOWARDS EITHER SOME TYPE OF SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
OR PERHAPS EVEN PURELY TROPICAL. AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD...THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY AND REMAINS AS SUCH THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE GULF STREAM
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AS WELL. FURTHERMORE...PHASE
DIAGRAM ANALYSES CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WARM CORE SYSTEM. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS INCREASED THE OUTLOOK TO MODERATE FOR
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN ITS 5 DAY OUTLOOK...AND A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MAY EXPLORE THE STORM LATER TODAY.

HOWEVER...ITS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
THE SYSTEM REMAINS PURELY EXTRATROPICAL OR BECOMES A CLASSIFIED
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME GIVEN
THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SLOW NORTHWARD AND WELL OFFSHORE TRACK. SUCH
A TRACK WOULD SOLIDLY PUT THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WEAKER AND DRIER
SIDE OF THE STORM. IN FACT...THE PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
LIMIT ALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO THE TRI-COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EASTERN CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTLINE. IN FACT...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WOULD INCREASINGLY BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH TIME
WHICH WOULD FAVOR A WARMING TREND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED AND HAVE ESSENTIALLY
BEEN LIMITED TO JUST THE TRI-COUNTY REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OFF THE COAST THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE...THE STRONGEST
WINDS REMAIN OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ONSET OF THE BEST HEATING. IF THIS PREFERRED SOLUTION WORKS
OUT...IT APPEARS THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR COASTAL HAZARDS SUCH AS
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AND
OFFSHORE. ALL ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL AS ANY GUIDANCE
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OFFSHORE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETTING UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIOD IS FOR WARMING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. WE MAY ALSO
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SURFACE HEATING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KCHS LATE
AS DEEP MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES TO THE
SOUTH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT KCHS...BASED ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A COMPLEX AND LOWER CONFIDENCE COASTAL WATERS PACKAGE TAKING SHAPE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE
SOUTH WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY EARLY THURSDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. WE KNOW THE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO PINCH AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS SOME WEAK
INLAND RIDGING WHILE PRESSURES FALL ALONG AND OFF THE COAST AHEAD
OF THE LOW. WE CONTINUED TO SHOW A DETERIORATION FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WAVES SLOWLY BUILD TODAY AND THEN SHARPER INCREASES IN
WINDS AND SEAS OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY AND
THEN ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR
THE REST OF THE WATERS. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT WITHIN 20 NM
WHILE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE STREAM PERHAPS REACH OR
EXCEED 10 FT BY DAWN ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST AND ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS OF NOW...THE PREFERRED TRACK IS
FOR THE SYSTEM TO PASS WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DO NOT EXPLICITLY
FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME TROPICAL IN NATURE. AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR ALL OF THE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY FOR THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN HOISTED WITH ENDING TIMES BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. STAY TUNED
TO FORECAST UPDATES AS WELL AS DETAILS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME 2-3 FT SWELL EVERY 8-9 SECONDS.
ROBUST LONGSHORE CURRENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY ALL BEACHES. AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWS OFF THE COAST. THE RISK
MAY THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AND NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TIDES
ALONG THE COAST. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE 5.9 FT MLLW IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR THE NEXT COUPLE EVENINGS. THE N WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY WILL
PUSH TIDES ABOVE THAT LEVEL...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
ENOUGH SURGE TO PUSH THAT TO 7.0 FT AT DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. TIDE
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 061521
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1121 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND MAY BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMED TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE SO NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND TRACK NORTHWARD.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA RAIN-FREE TODAY ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE...MAINLY ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE. SHOULD BE DECENT COVERAGE
OF CUMULUS AND STRATOCU AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. FAR INLAND
AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE AND WARMEST TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY/GUSTY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST
WHERE GUSTS WILL BE NEAR 25 MPH.

TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM NEARING 30 DEGREES NORTH BY
DAYBREAK MAY BEGIN TO TAKE BETTER TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
UPPER SHEAR DECREASES OVER THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE. POPS COULD QUICKLY RAMP UP ALONG
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS EAST OF LINE FROM BEAUFORT TO SUMMERVILLE
TO JAMESTOWN LATE AS A FLUX OF DEEP ATLC MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES SOMETIME NEARING DAYBREAK. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TONIGHT PRODUCING BUILDING
NORTHERLY BREEZES ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...THE DETAILS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HINGE GREATLY ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ITS EVENTUAL
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THE SUITE OF MODELS APPEAR TO BE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A
SIMILAR SOLUTION. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS TRACK NOW TAKES THE LOW
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL WESTWARD SLIDE...AND HAS IT
CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR 33N/78W BY LATE SATURDAY. SUCH A POSITION
WOULD PUT THE CENTER ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF CHARLESTON COUNTY. FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...THE 00Z/06
ECMWF WAS THE FAVORED SOLUTION AS IT FOLLOWS THIS SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK VERY CLOSELY. THE REASON THE ECMWF IS FAVORED IS DUE TO ITS
MINIMAL WESTWARD JOG WITH THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE DEEP RIDGE ALOFT. ALSO...IT STANDS TO REASON
THAT HAVING THE LOW RETROGRADE AWAY FROM THE WARMER WATERS OF THE
GULF STREAM SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE ABSENCE OF A PROMINENT STEERING
FEATURE TO THE EAST.

NOW THAT WE HAVE STARTED TO SOLIDIFY THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THE
GENERAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THE QUESTION OF THE CHARACTERIZATION
REMAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT UNDER WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING
SEEMS TO BE POINTING TOWARDS EITHER SOME TYPE OF SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
OR PERHAPS EVEN PURELY TROPICAL. AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD...THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY AND REMAINS AS SUCH THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE GULF STREAM
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AS WELL. FURTHERMORE...PHASE
DIAGRAM ANALYSES CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WARM CORE SYSTEM. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS INCREASED THE OUTLOOK TO MODERATE FOR
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN ITS 5 DAY OUTLOOK...AND A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MAY EXPLORE THE STORM LATER TODAY.

HOWEVER...ITS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
THE SYSTEM REMAINS PURELY EXTRATROPICAL OR BECOMES A CLASSIFIED
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME GIVEN
THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SLOW NORTHWARD AND WELL OFFSHORE TRACK. SUCH
A TRACK WOULD SOLIDLY PUT THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WEAKER AND DRIER
SIDE OF THE STORM. IN FACT...THE PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
LIMIT ALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO THE TRI-COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EASTERN CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTLINE. IN FACT...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WOULD INCREASINGLY BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH TIME
WHICH WOULD FAVOR A WARMING TREND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED AND HAVE ESSENTIALLY
BEEN LIMITED TO JUST THE TRI-COUNTY REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OFF THE COAST THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE...THE STRONGEST
WINDS REMAIN OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ONSET OF THE BEST HEATING. IF THIS PREFERRED SOLUTION WORKS
OUT...IT APPEARS THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR COASTAL HAZARDS SUCH AS
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AND
OFFSHORE. ALL ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL AS ANY GUIDANCE
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OFFSHORE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETTING UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIOD IS FOR WARMING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. WE MAY ALSO
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SURFACE HEATING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KCHS LATE
AS DEEP MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES TO THE
SOUTH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT KCHS...BASED ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A COMPLEX AND LOWER CONFIDENCE COASTAL WATERS PACKAGE TAKING SHAPE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE
SOUTH WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY EARLY THURSDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. WE KNOW THE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO PINCH AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS SOME WEAK
INLAND RIDGING WHILE PRESSURES FALL ALONG AND OFF THE COAST AHEAD
OF THE LOW. WE CONTINUED TO SHOW A DETERIORATION FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WAVES SLOWLY BUILD TODAY AND THEN SHARPER INCREASES IN
WINDS AND SEAS OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY AND
THEN ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR
THE REST OF THE WATERS. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT WITHIN 20 NM
WHILE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE STREAM PERHAPS REACH OR
EXCEED 10 FT BY DAWN ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST AND ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS OF NOW...THE PREFERRED TRACK IS
FOR THE SYSTEM TO PASS WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DO NOT EXPLICITLY
FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME TROPICAL IN NATURE. AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR ALL OF THE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY FOR THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN HOISTED WITH ENDING TIMES BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. STAY TUNED
TO FORECAST UPDATES AS WELL AS DETAILS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME 2-3 FT SWELL EVERY 8-9 SECONDS.
ROBUST LONGSHORE CURRENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY ALL BEACHES. AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWS OFF THE COAST. THE RISK
MAY THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AND NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TIDES
ALONG THE COAST. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE 5.9 FT MLLW IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR THE NEXT COUPLE EVENINGS. THE N WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY WILL
PUSH TIDES ABOVE THAT LEVEL...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
ENOUGH SURGE TO PUSH THAT TO 7.0 FT AT DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. TIDE
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 061521
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1121 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND MAY BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMED TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE SO NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND TRACK NORTHWARD.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA RAIN-FREE TODAY ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE...MAINLY ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE. SHOULD BE DECENT COVERAGE
OF CUMULUS AND STRATOCU AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. FAR INLAND
AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE AND WARMEST TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY/GUSTY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST
WHERE GUSTS WILL BE NEAR 25 MPH.

TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM NEARING 30 DEGREES NORTH BY
DAYBREAK MAY BEGIN TO TAKE BETTER TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
UPPER SHEAR DECREASES OVER THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE. POPS COULD QUICKLY RAMP UP ALONG
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS EAST OF LINE FROM BEAUFORT TO SUMMERVILLE
TO JAMESTOWN LATE AS A FLUX OF DEEP ATLC MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES SOMETIME NEARING DAYBREAK. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TONIGHT PRODUCING BUILDING
NORTHERLY BREEZES ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...THE DETAILS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HINGE GREATLY ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ITS EVENTUAL
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THE SUITE OF MODELS APPEAR TO BE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A
SIMILAR SOLUTION. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS TRACK NOW TAKES THE LOW
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL WESTWARD SLIDE...AND HAS IT
CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR 33N/78W BY LATE SATURDAY. SUCH A POSITION
WOULD PUT THE CENTER ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF CHARLESTON COUNTY. FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...THE 00Z/06
ECMWF WAS THE FAVORED SOLUTION AS IT FOLLOWS THIS SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK VERY CLOSELY. THE REASON THE ECMWF IS FAVORED IS DUE TO ITS
MINIMAL WESTWARD JOG WITH THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE DEEP RIDGE ALOFT. ALSO...IT STANDS TO REASON
THAT HAVING THE LOW RETROGRADE AWAY FROM THE WARMER WATERS OF THE
GULF STREAM SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE ABSENCE OF A PROMINENT STEERING
FEATURE TO THE EAST.

NOW THAT WE HAVE STARTED TO SOLIDIFY THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THE
GENERAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THE QUESTION OF THE CHARACTERIZATION
REMAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT UNDER WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING
SEEMS TO BE POINTING TOWARDS EITHER SOME TYPE OF SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
OR PERHAPS EVEN PURELY TROPICAL. AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD...THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY AND REMAINS AS SUCH THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE GULF STREAM
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AS WELL. FURTHERMORE...PHASE
DIAGRAM ANALYSES CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WARM CORE SYSTEM. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS INCREASED THE OUTLOOK TO MODERATE FOR
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN ITS 5 DAY OUTLOOK...AND A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MAY EXPLORE THE STORM LATER TODAY.

HOWEVER...ITS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
THE SYSTEM REMAINS PURELY EXTRATROPICAL OR BECOMES A CLASSIFIED
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME GIVEN
THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SLOW NORTHWARD AND WELL OFFSHORE TRACK. SUCH
A TRACK WOULD SOLIDLY PUT THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WEAKER AND DRIER
SIDE OF THE STORM. IN FACT...THE PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
LIMIT ALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO THE TRI-COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EASTERN CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTLINE. IN FACT...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WOULD INCREASINGLY BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH TIME
WHICH WOULD FAVOR A WARMING TREND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED AND HAVE ESSENTIALLY
BEEN LIMITED TO JUST THE TRI-COUNTY REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OFF THE COAST THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE...THE STRONGEST
WINDS REMAIN OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ONSET OF THE BEST HEATING. IF THIS PREFERRED SOLUTION WORKS
OUT...IT APPEARS THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR COASTAL HAZARDS SUCH AS
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AND
OFFSHORE. ALL ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL AS ANY GUIDANCE
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OFFSHORE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETTING UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIOD IS FOR WARMING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. WE MAY ALSO
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SURFACE HEATING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KCHS LATE
AS DEEP MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES TO THE
SOUTH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT KCHS...BASED ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A COMPLEX AND LOWER CONFIDENCE COASTAL WATERS PACKAGE TAKING SHAPE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE
SOUTH WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY EARLY THURSDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. WE KNOW THE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO PINCH AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS SOME WEAK
INLAND RIDGING WHILE PRESSURES FALL ALONG AND OFF THE COAST AHEAD
OF THE LOW. WE CONTINUED TO SHOW A DETERIORATION FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WAVES SLOWLY BUILD TODAY AND THEN SHARPER INCREASES IN
WINDS AND SEAS OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY AND
THEN ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR
THE REST OF THE WATERS. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT WITHIN 20 NM
WHILE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE STREAM PERHAPS REACH OR
EXCEED 10 FT BY DAWN ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST AND ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS OF NOW...THE PREFERRED TRACK IS
FOR THE SYSTEM TO PASS WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DO NOT EXPLICITLY
FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME TROPICAL IN NATURE. AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR ALL OF THE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY FOR THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN HOISTED WITH ENDING TIMES BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. STAY TUNED
TO FORECAST UPDATES AS WELL AS DETAILS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME 2-3 FT SWELL EVERY 8-9 SECONDS.
ROBUST LONGSHORE CURRENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY ALL BEACHES. AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWS OFF THE COAST. THE RISK
MAY THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AND NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TIDES
ALONG THE COAST. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE 5.9 FT MLLW IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR THE NEXT COUPLE EVENINGS. THE N WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY WILL
PUSH TIDES ABOVE THAT LEVEL...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
ENOUGH SURGE TO PUSH THAT TO 7.0 FT AT DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. TIDE
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 061521
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1121 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND MAY BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMED TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE SO NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND TRACK NORTHWARD.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA RAIN-FREE TODAY ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE...MAINLY ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE. SHOULD BE DECENT COVERAGE
OF CUMULUS AND STRATOCU AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. FAR INLAND
AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE AND WARMEST TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY/GUSTY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST
WHERE GUSTS WILL BE NEAR 25 MPH.

TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM NEARING 30 DEGREES NORTH BY
DAYBREAK MAY BEGIN TO TAKE BETTER TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
UPPER SHEAR DECREASES OVER THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE. POPS COULD QUICKLY RAMP UP ALONG
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS EAST OF LINE FROM BEAUFORT TO SUMMERVILLE
TO JAMESTOWN LATE AS A FLUX OF DEEP ATLC MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES SOMETIME NEARING DAYBREAK. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TONIGHT PRODUCING BUILDING
NORTHERLY BREEZES ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...THE DETAILS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HINGE GREATLY ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ITS EVENTUAL
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THE SUITE OF MODELS APPEAR TO BE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A
SIMILAR SOLUTION. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS TRACK NOW TAKES THE LOW
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL WESTWARD SLIDE...AND HAS IT
CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR 33N/78W BY LATE SATURDAY. SUCH A POSITION
WOULD PUT THE CENTER ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF CHARLESTON COUNTY. FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...THE 00Z/06
ECMWF WAS THE FAVORED SOLUTION AS IT FOLLOWS THIS SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK VERY CLOSELY. THE REASON THE ECMWF IS FAVORED IS DUE TO ITS
MINIMAL WESTWARD JOG WITH THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE DEEP RIDGE ALOFT. ALSO...IT STANDS TO REASON
THAT HAVING THE LOW RETROGRADE AWAY FROM THE WARMER WATERS OF THE
GULF STREAM SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE ABSENCE OF A PROMINENT STEERING
FEATURE TO THE EAST.

NOW THAT WE HAVE STARTED TO SOLIDIFY THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THE
GENERAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THE QUESTION OF THE CHARACTERIZATION
REMAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT UNDER WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING
SEEMS TO BE POINTING TOWARDS EITHER SOME TYPE OF SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
OR PERHAPS EVEN PURELY TROPICAL. AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD...THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY AND REMAINS AS SUCH THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE GULF STREAM
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AS WELL. FURTHERMORE...PHASE
DIAGRAM ANALYSES CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WARM CORE SYSTEM. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS INCREASED THE OUTLOOK TO MODERATE FOR
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN ITS 5 DAY OUTLOOK...AND A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MAY EXPLORE THE STORM LATER TODAY.

HOWEVER...ITS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
THE SYSTEM REMAINS PURELY EXTRATROPICAL OR BECOMES A CLASSIFIED
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME GIVEN
THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SLOW NORTHWARD AND WELL OFFSHORE TRACK. SUCH
A TRACK WOULD SOLIDLY PUT THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WEAKER AND DRIER
SIDE OF THE STORM. IN FACT...THE PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
LIMIT ALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO THE TRI-COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EASTERN CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTLINE. IN FACT...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WOULD INCREASINGLY BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH TIME
WHICH WOULD FAVOR A WARMING TREND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED AND HAVE ESSENTIALLY
BEEN LIMITED TO JUST THE TRI-COUNTY REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OFF THE COAST THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE...THE STRONGEST
WINDS REMAIN OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ONSET OF THE BEST HEATING. IF THIS PREFERRED SOLUTION WORKS
OUT...IT APPEARS THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR COASTAL HAZARDS SUCH AS
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AND
OFFSHORE. ALL ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL AS ANY GUIDANCE
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OFFSHORE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETTING UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIOD IS FOR WARMING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. WE MAY ALSO
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SURFACE HEATING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KCHS LATE
AS DEEP MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES TO THE
SOUTH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT KCHS...BASED ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A COMPLEX AND LOWER CONFIDENCE COASTAL WATERS PACKAGE TAKING SHAPE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE
SOUTH WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY EARLY THURSDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. WE KNOW THE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO PINCH AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS SOME WEAK
INLAND RIDGING WHILE PRESSURES FALL ALONG AND OFF THE COAST AHEAD
OF THE LOW. WE CONTINUED TO SHOW A DETERIORATION FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WAVES SLOWLY BUILD TODAY AND THEN SHARPER INCREASES IN
WINDS AND SEAS OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY AND
THEN ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR
THE REST OF THE WATERS. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT WITHIN 20 NM
WHILE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE STREAM PERHAPS REACH OR
EXCEED 10 FT BY DAWN ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST AND ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS OF NOW...THE PREFERRED TRACK IS
FOR THE SYSTEM TO PASS WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DO NOT EXPLICITLY
FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME TROPICAL IN NATURE. AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR ALL OF THE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY FOR THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN HOISTED WITH ENDING TIMES BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. STAY TUNED
TO FORECAST UPDATES AS WELL AS DETAILS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME 2-3 FT SWELL EVERY 8-9 SECONDS.
ROBUST LONGSHORE CURRENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY ALL BEACHES. AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWS OFF THE COAST. THE RISK
MAY THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AND NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TIDES
ALONG THE COAST. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE 5.9 FT MLLW IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR THE NEXT COUPLE EVENINGS. THE N WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY WILL
PUSH TIDES ABOVE THAT LEVEL...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
ENOUGH SURGE TO PUSH THAT TO 7.0 FT AT DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. TIDE
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 061521
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1121 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND MAY BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMED TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE SO NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND TRACK NORTHWARD.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA RAIN-FREE TODAY ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE...MAINLY ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE. SHOULD BE DECENT COVERAGE
OF CUMULUS AND STRATOCU AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. FAR INLAND
AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE AND WARMEST TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY/GUSTY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST
WHERE GUSTS WILL BE NEAR 25 MPH.

TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM NEARING 30 DEGREES NORTH BY
DAYBREAK MAY BEGIN TO TAKE BETTER TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
UPPER SHEAR DECREASES OVER THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE. POPS COULD QUICKLY RAMP UP ALONG
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS EAST OF LINE FROM BEAUFORT TO SUMMERVILLE
TO JAMESTOWN LATE AS A FLUX OF DEEP ATLC MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES SOMETIME NEARING DAYBREAK. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TONIGHT PRODUCING BUILDING
NORTHERLY BREEZES ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...THE DETAILS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HINGE GREATLY ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ITS EVENTUAL
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THE SUITE OF MODELS APPEAR TO BE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A
SIMILAR SOLUTION. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS TRACK NOW TAKES THE LOW
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL WESTWARD SLIDE...AND HAS IT
CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR 33N/78W BY LATE SATURDAY. SUCH A POSITION
WOULD PUT THE CENTER ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF CHARLESTON COUNTY. FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...THE 00Z/06
ECMWF WAS THE FAVORED SOLUTION AS IT FOLLOWS THIS SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK VERY CLOSELY. THE REASON THE ECMWF IS FAVORED IS DUE TO ITS
MINIMAL WESTWARD JOG WITH THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE DEEP RIDGE ALOFT. ALSO...IT STANDS TO REASON
THAT HAVING THE LOW RETROGRADE AWAY FROM THE WARMER WATERS OF THE
GULF STREAM SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE ABSENCE OF A PROMINENT STEERING
FEATURE TO THE EAST.

NOW THAT WE HAVE STARTED TO SOLIDIFY THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THE
GENERAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THE QUESTION OF THE CHARACTERIZATION
REMAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT UNDER WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING
SEEMS TO BE POINTING TOWARDS EITHER SOME TYPE OF SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
OR PERHAPS EVEN PURELY TROPICAL. AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD...THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY AND REMAINS AS SUCH THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE GULF STREAM
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AS WELL. FURTHERMORE...PHASE
DIAGRAM ANALYSES CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WARM CORE SYSTEM. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS INCREASED THE OUTLOOK TO MODERATE FOR
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN ITS 5 DAY OUTLOOK...AND A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MAY EXPLORE THE STORM LATER TODAY.

HOWEVER...ITS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
THE SYSTEM REMAINS PURELY EXTRATROPICAL OR BECOMES A CLASSIFIED
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME GIVEN
THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SLOW NORTHWARD AND WELL OFFSHORE TRACK. SUCH
A TRACK WOULD SOLIDLY PUT THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WEAKER AND DRIER
SIDE OF THE STORM. IN FACT...THE PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
LIMIT ALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO THE TRI-COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EASTERN CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTLINE. IN FACT...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WOULD INCREASINGLY BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH TIME
WHICH WOULD FAVOR A WARMING TREND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED AND HAVE ESSENTIALLY
BEEN LIMITED TO JUST THE TRI-COUNTY REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OFF THE COAST THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE...THE STRONGEST
WINDS REMAIN OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ONSET OF THE BEST HEATING. IF THIS PREFERRED SOLUTION WORKS
OUT...IT APPEARS THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR COASTAL HAZARDS SUCH AS
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AND
OFFSHORE. ALL ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL AS ANY GUIDANCE
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OFFSHORE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETTING UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIOD IS FOR WARMING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. WE MAY ALSO
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SURFACE HEATING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KCHS LATE
AS DEEP MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES TO THE
SOUTH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT KCHS...BASED ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A COMPLEX AND LOWER CONFIDENCE COASTAL WATERS PACKAGE TAKING SHAPE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE
SOUTH WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY EARLY THURSDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. WE KNOW THE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO PINCH AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS SOME WEAK
INLAND RIDGING WHILE PRESSURES FALL ALONG AND OFF THE COAST AHEAD
OF THE LOW. WE CONTINUED TO SHOW A DETERIORATION FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WAVES SLOWLY BUILD TODAY AND THEN SHARPER INCREASES IN
WINDS AND SEAS OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY AND
THEN ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR
THE REST OF THE WATERS. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT WITHIN 20 NM
WHILE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE STREAM PERHAPS REACH OR
EXCEED 10 FT BY DAWN ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST AND ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS OF NOW...THE PREFERRED TRACK IS
FOR THE SYSTEM TO PASS WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DO NOT EXPLICITLY
FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME TROPICAL IN NATURE. AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR ALL OF THE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY FOR THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN HOISTED WITH ENDING TIMES BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. STAY TUNED
TO FORECAST UPDATES AS WELL AS DETAILS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME 2-3 FT SWELL EVERY 8-9 SECONDS.
ROBUST LONGSHORE CURRENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY ALL BEACHES. AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWS OFF THE COAST. THE RISK
MAY THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AND NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TIDES
ALONG THE COAST. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE 5.9 FT MLLW IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR THE NEXT COUPLE EVENINGS. THE N WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY WILL
PUSH TIDES ABOVE THAT LEVEL...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
ENOUGH SURGE TO PUSH THAT TO 7.0 FT AT DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. TIDE
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 061521
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1121 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND MAY BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMED TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE SO NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND TRACK NORTHWARD.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA RAIN-FREE TODAY ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE...MAINLY ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE. SHOULD BE DECENT COVERAGE
OF CUMULUS AND STRATOCU AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. FAR INLAND
AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE AND WARMEST TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY/GUSTY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST
WHERE GUSTS WILL BE NEAR 25 MPH.

TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM NEARING 30 DEGREES NORTH BY
DAYBREAK MAY BEGIN TO TAKE BETTER TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
UPPER SHEAR DECREASES OVER THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE. POPS COULD QUICKLY RAMP UP ALONG
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS EAST OF LINE FROM BEAUFORT TO SUMMERVILLE
TO JAMESTOWN LATE AS A FLUX OF DEEP ATLC MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES SOMETIME NEARING DAYBREAK. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TONIGHT PRODUCING BUILDING
NORTHERLY BREEZES ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...THE DETAILS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HINGE GREATLY ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ITS EVENTUAL
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THE SUITE OF MODELS APPEAR TO BE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A
SIMILAR SOLUTION. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS TRACK NOW TAKES THE LOW
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL WESTWARD SLIDE...AND HAS IT
CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR 33N/78W BY LATE SATURDAY. SUCH A POSITION
WOULD PUT THE CENTER ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF CHARLESTON COUNTY. FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...THE 00Z/06
ECMWF WAS THE FAVORED SOLUTION AS IT FOLLOWS THIS SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK VERY CLOSELY. THE REASON THE ECMWF IS FAVORED IS DUE TO ITS
MINIMAL WESTWARD JOG WITH THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE DEEP RIDGE ALOFT. ALSO...IT STANDS TO REASON
THAT HAVING THE LOW RETROGRADE AWAY FROM THE WARMER WATERS OF THE
GULF STREAM SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE ABSENCE OF A PROMINENT STEERING
FEATURE TO THE EAST.

NOW THAT WE HAVE STARTED TO SOLIDIFY THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THE
GENERAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THE QUESTION OF THE CHARACTERIZATION
REMAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT UNDER WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING
SEEMS TO BE POINTING TOWARDS EITHER SOME TYPE OF SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
OR PERHAPS EVEN PURELY TROPICAL. AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD...THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY AND REMAINS AS SUCH THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE GULF STREAM
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AS WELL. FURTHERMORE...PHASE
DIAGRAM ANALYSES CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WARM CORE SYSTEM. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS INCREASED THE OUTLOOK TO MODERATE FOR
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN ITS 5 DAY OUTLOOK...AND A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MAY EXPLORE THE STORM LATER TODAY.

HOWEVER...ITS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
THE SYSTEM REMAINS PURELY EXTRATROPICAL OR BECOMES A CLASSIFIED
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME GIVEN
THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SLOW NORTHWARD AND WELL OFFSHORE TRACK. SUCH
A TRACK WOULD SOLIDLY PUT THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WEAKER AND DRIER
SIDE OF THE STORM. IN FACT...THE PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
LIMIT ALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO THE TRI-COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EASTERN CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTLINE. IN FACT...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WOULD INCREASINGLY BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH TIME
WHICH WOULD FAVOR A WARMING TREND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED AND HAVE ESSENTIALLY
BEEN LIMITED TO JUST THE TRI-COUNTY REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OFF THE COAST THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE...THE STRONGEST
WINDS REMAIN OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ONSET OF THE BEST HEATING. IF THIS PREFERRED SOLUTION WORKS
OUT...IT APPEARS THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR COASTAL HAZARDS SUCH AS
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AND
OFFSHORE. ALL ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL AS ANY GUIDANCE
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OFFSHORE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETTING UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIOD IS FOR WARMING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. WE MAY ALSO
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SURFACE HEATING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KCHS LATE
AS DEEP MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES TO THE
SOUTH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT KCHS...BASED ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A COMPLEX AND LOWER CONFIDENCE COASTAL WATERS PACKAGE TAKING SHAPE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE
SOUTH WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY EARLY THURSDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. WE KNOW THE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO PINCH AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS SOME WEAK
INLAND RIDGING WHILE PRESSURES FALL ALONG AND OFF THE COAST AHEAD
OF THE LOW. WE CONTINUED TO SHOW A DETERIORATION FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WAVES SLOWLY BUILD TODAY AND THEN SHARPER INCREASES IN
WINDS AND SEAS OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY AND
THEN ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR
THE REST OF THE WATERS. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT WITHIN 20 NM
WHILE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE STREAM PERHAPS REACH OR
EXCEED 10 FT BY DAWN ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST AND ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS OF NOW...THE PREFERRED TRACK IS
FOR THE SYSTEM TO PASS WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DO NOT EXPLICITLY
FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME TROPICAL IN NATURE. AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR ALL OF THE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY FOR THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN HOISTED WITH ENDING TIMES BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. STAY TUNED
TO FORECAST UPDATES AS WELL AS DETAILS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME 2-3 FT SWELL EVERY 8-9 SECONDS.
ROBUST LONGSHORE CURRENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY ALL BEACHES. AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWS OFF THE COAST. THE RISK
MAY THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AND NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TIDES
ALONG THE COAST. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE 5.9 FT MLLW IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR THE NEXT COUPLE EVENINGS. THE N WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY WILL
PUSH TIDES ABOVE THAT LEVEL...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
ENOUGH SURGE TO PUSH THAT TO 7.0 FT AT DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. TIDE
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KFFC 061133
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
733 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED IN SHORT TERM AS FAR AS LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO JUST OFF SHORE THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY THIS EVENING.  ECMWF HAS HAD THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY
KEEPING THE SYSTEM FURTHER EAST...BUT OVERALL ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH THE LACK
OF ANY DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA YESTERDAY...HAVE DROPPED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.
EXPECT FEW-SCT MID CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.  GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
PERFORMING WELL AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS WELL...SO WILL STAY THE
COURSE AS FAR AS THAT IS CONCERNED.

ATWELL

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE COASTAL LOW SOLUTION.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE LOW JUST EAST OF MYRTLE BEACH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND A
SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER...THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE
LOW WITH THE GFS BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO GA WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE CWA DRY. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE LOW NEARS MYR. AFTER THE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHEAST...THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS. NO WEATHER
EXPECTED AT TAF SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  57  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
ATLANTA         82  60  83  62 /   0   0   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     80  52  79  56 /   5   0  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    82  55  83  57 /   0   0   5   0
COLUMBUS        83  59  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     81  58  81  60 /   0   0   5   0
MACON           83  56  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            84  55  84  57 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  83  54  83  58 /   0   0   5   0
VIDALIA         83  60  82  63 /   0   5  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATWELL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 061133
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
733 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED IN SHORT TERM AS FAR AS LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO JUST OFF SHORE THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY THIS EVENING.  ECMWF HAS HAD THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY
KEEPING THE SYSTEM FURTHER EAST...BUT OVERALL ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH THE LACK
OF ANY DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA YESTERDAY...HAVE DROPPED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.
EXPECT FEW-SCT MID CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.  GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
PERFORMING WELL AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS WELL...SO WILL STAY THE
COURSE AS FAR AS THAT IS CONCERNED.

ATWELL

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE COASTAL LOW SOLUTION.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE LOW JUST EAST OF MYRTLE BEACH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND A
SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER...THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE
LOW WITH THE GFS BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO GA WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE CWA DRY. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE LOW NEARS MYR. AFTER THE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHEAST...THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS. NO WEATHER
EXPECTED AT TAF SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  57  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
ATLANTA         82  60  83  62 /   0   0   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     80  52  79  56 /   5   0  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    82  55  83  57 /   0   0   5   0
COLUMBUS        83  59  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     81  58  81  60 /   0   0   5   0
MACON           83  56  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            84  55  84  57 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  83  54  83  58 /   0   0   5   0
VIDALIA         83  60  82  63 /   0   5  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATWELL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 061131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND MAY BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY.
THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES JUST NORTH
OF THE BAHAMAS THE MAIN FEATURES TO INITIALIZE THE FORECAST PACKAGE
TODAY. MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON PINCHING OFF A SURFACE LOW
OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THIS MORNING UNDER A REGION OF SHARP
UPPER DIFLUENCE WHERE 250 MB WINDS WERE BACKING TO SE OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INDICATE THE LAYERS BETWEEN
8 AND 18 KFT WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WHILE ENOUGH ATLC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVES IN ALONG AND E OF I-95 TO SUPPORT A FAIR COVERAGE OF CUMULUS
AND STRATOCU LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
FAR INLAND AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE AND WARMEST TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SPIT OUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WE THINK ANY ACTIVITY
WOULD BE SPOTTY AND JUST MAINTAINED 10 POPS ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES
AND FIRST TIER INLAND. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG COASTAL AREAS
TO 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY WITH 15 TO 25 MPH AT AREA BEACHES.

TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM NEARING 30 DEGREES NORTH BY
DAYBREAK MAY BEGIN TO TAKE BETTER TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
UPPER SHEAR DECREASES OVER THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE. POPS COULD QUICKLY RAMP UP ALONG
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS EAST OF LINE FROM BEAUFORT TO SUMMERVILLE
TO JAMESTOWN LATE AS A FLUX OF DEEP ATLC MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES SOMETIME NEARING DAYBREAK. WE REMAIN SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT WITH CHANCE POPS BUT CAN ENVISION
BETTER CHANCES FOR A DAMP MORNING RUSH AROUND CHARLESTON THURSDAY
MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY
LATE TONIGHT PRODUCING BUILDING NORTHERLY BREEZES ALONG COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...THE DETAILS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HINGE GREATLY ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ITS EVENTUAL
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THE SUITE OF MODELS APPEAR TO BE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A
SIMILAR SOLUTION. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS TRACK NOW TAKES THE LOW
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL WESTWARD SLIDE...AND HAS IT
CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR 33N/78W BY LATE SATURDAY. SUCH A POSITION
WOULD PUT THE CENTER ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF CHARLESTON COUNTY. FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...THE 00Z/06
ECMWF WAS THE FAVORED SOLUTION AS IT FOLLOWS THIS SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK VERY CLOSELY. THE REASON THE ECMWF IS FAVORED IS DUE TO ITS
MINIMAL WESTWARD JOG WITH THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE DEEP RIDGE ALOFT. ALSO...IT STANDS TO REASON
THAT HAVING THE LOW RETROGRADE AWAY FROM THE WARMER WATERS OF THE
GULF STREAM SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE ABSENCE OF A PROMINENT STEERING
FEATURE TO THE EAST.

NOW THAT WE HAVE STARTED TO SOLIDIFY THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THE
GENERAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THE QUESTION OF THE CHARACTERIZATION
REMAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT UNDER WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING
SEEMS TO BE POINTING TOWARDS EITHER SOME TYPE OF SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
OR PERHAPS EVEN PURELY TROPICAL. AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD...THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY AND REMAINS AS SUCH THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE GULF STREAM
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AS WELL. FURTHERMORE...PHASE
DIAGRAM ANALYSES CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WARM CORE SYSTEM. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS INCREASED THE OUTLOOK TO MODERATE FOR
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN ITS 5 DAY OUTLOOK...AND A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MAY EXPLORE THE STORM LATER TODAY.

HOWEVER...ITS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
THE SYSTEM REMAINS PURELY EXTRATROPICAL OR BECOMES A CLASSIFIED
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME GIVEN
THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SLOW NORTHWARD AND WELL OFFSHORE TRACK. SUCH
A TRACK WOULD SOLIDLY PUT THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WEAKER AND DRIER
SIDE OF THE STORM. IN FACT...THE PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
LIMIT ALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO THE TRI-COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EASTERN CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTLINE. IN FACT...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WOULD INCREASINGLY BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH TIME
WHICH WOULD FAVOR A WARMING TREND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED AND HAVE ESSENTIALLY
BEEN LIMITED TO JUST THE TRI-COUNTY REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OFF THE COAST THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE...THE STRONGEST
WINDS REMAIN OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ONSET OF THE BEST HEATING. IF THIS PREFERRED SOLUTION WORKS
OUT...IT APPEARS THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR COASTAL HAZARDS SUCH AS
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AND
OFFSHORE. ALL ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL AS ANY GUIDANCE
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OFFSHORE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETTING UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIOD IS FOR WARMING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. WE MAY ALSO
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SURFACE HEATING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KCHS LATE
AS DEEP MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES TO THE
SOUTH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT KCHS...BASED ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A COMPLEX AND LOWER CONFIDENCE COASTAL WATERS PACKAGE TAKING SHAPE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE
SOUTH WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY EARLY THURSDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. WE KNOW THE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO PINCH AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS SOME WEAK
INLAND RIDGING WHILE PRESSURES FALL ALONG AND OFF THE COAST AHEAD
OF THE LOW. WE CONTINUED TO SHOW A DETERIORATION FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WAVES SLOWLY BUILD TODAY AND THEN SHARPER INCREASES IN
WINDS AND SEAS OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY AND
THEN ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
SOLID ADVISORIES ONGOING AT 09Z-12Z THURSDAY AT THE BUOYS. SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT WITHIN 20 NM WHILE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
CLOSER TO THE STREAM PERHAPS REACH OR EXCEED 10 FT BY DAWN ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST AND ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS OF NOW...THE PREFERRED TRACK IS
FOR THE SYSTEM TO PASS WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DO NOT EXPLICITLY
FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME TROPICAL IN NATURE. AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR ALL OF THE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY FOR THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN HOISTED WITH ENDING TIMES BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. STAY TUNED
TO FORECAST UPDATES AS WELL AS DETAILS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME 2-3 FT SWELL EVERY 8-9 SECONDS.
ROBUST LONGSHORE CURRENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY ALL BEACHES. AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWS OFF THE COAST. THE RISK
MAY THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AND NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TIDES
ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST TIDES ARE 5.9 FT MLLW IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR THE NEXT COUPLE EVENINGS. THE N WINDS WILL PUSH TIDES ABOVE
THAT LEVEL...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH SURGE TO
PUSH THAT TO 7.0 FT AT DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. TIDE LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 061131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND MAY BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY.
THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES JUST NORTH
OF THE BAHAMAS THE MAIN FEATURES TO INITIALIZE THE FORECAST PACKAGE
TODAY. MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON PINCHING OFF A SURFACE LOW
OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THIS MORNING UNDER A REGION OF SHARP
UPPER DIFLUENCE WHERE 250 MB WINDS WERE BACKING TO SE OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INDICATE THE LAYERS BETWEEN
8 AND 18 KFT WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WHILE ENOUGH ATLC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVES IN ALONG AND E OF I-95 TO SUPPORT A FAIR COVERAGE OF CUMULUS
AND STRATOCU LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
FAR INLAND AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE AND WARMEST TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SPIT OUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WE THINK ANY ACTIVITY
WOULD BE SPOTTY AND JUST MAINTAINED 10 POPS ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES
AND FIRST TIER INLAND. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG COASTAL AREAS
TO 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY WITH 15 TO 25 MPH AT AREA BEACHES.

TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM NEARING 30 DEGREES NORTH BY
DAYBREAK MAY BEGIN TO TAKE BETTER TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
UPPER SHEAR DECREASES OVER THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE. POPS COULD QUICKLY RAMP UP ALONG
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS EAST OF LINE FROM BEAUFORT TO SUMMERVILLE
TO JAMESTOWN LATE AS A FLUX OF DEEP ATLC MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES SOMETIME NEARING DAYBREAK. WE REMAIN SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT WITH CHANCE POPS BUT CAN ENVISION
BETTER CHANCES FOR A DAMP MORNING RUSH AROUND CHARLESTON THURSDAY
MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY
LATE TONIGHT PRODUCING BUILDING NORTHERLY BREEZES ALONG COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...THE DETAILS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HINGE GREATLY ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ITS EVENTUAL
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THE SUITE OF MODELS APPEAR TO BE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A
SIMILAR SOLUTION. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS TRACK NOW TAKES THE LOW
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL WESTWARD SLIDE...AND HAS IT
CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR 33N/78W BY LATE SATURDAY. SUCH A POSITION
WOULD PUT THE CENTER ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF CHARLESTON COUNTY. FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...THE 00Z/06
ECMWF WAS THE FAVORED SOLUTION AS IT FOLLOWS THIS SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK VERY CLOSELY. THE REASON THE ECMWF IS FAVORED IS DUE TO ITS
MINIMAL WESTWARD JOG WITH THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE DEEP RIDGE ALOFT. ALSO...IT STANDS TO REASON
THAT HAVING THE LOW RETROGRADE AWAY FROM THE WARMER WATERS OF THE
GULF STREAM SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE ABSENCE OF A PROMINENT STEERING
FEATURE TO THE EAST.

NOW THAT WE HAVE STARTED TO SOLIDIFY THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THE
GENERAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THE QUESTION OF THE CHARACTERIZATION
REMAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT UNDER WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING
SEEMS TO BE POINTING TOWARDS EITHER SOME TYPE OF SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
OR PERHAPS EVEN PURELY TROPICAL. AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD...THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY AND REMAINS AS SUCH THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE GULF STREAM
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AS WELL. FURTHERMORE...PHASE
DIAGRAM ANALYSES CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WARM CORE SYSTEM. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS INCREASED THE OUTLOOK TO MODERATE FOR
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN ITS 5 DAY OUTLOOK...AND A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MAY EXPLORE THE STORM LATER TODAY.

HOWEVER...ITS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
THE SYSTEM REMAINS PURELY EXTRATROPICAL OR BECOMES A CLASSIFIED
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME GIVEN
THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SLOW NORTHWARD AND WELL OFFSHORE TRACK. SUCH
A TRACK WOULD SOLIDLY PUT THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WEAKER AND DRIER
SIDE OF THE STORM. IN FACT...THE PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
LIMIT ALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO THE TRI-COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EASTERN CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTLINE. IN FACT...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WOULD INCREASINGLY BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH TIME
WHICH WOULD FAVOR A WARMING TREND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED AND HAVE ESSENTIALLY
BEEN LIMITED TO JUST THE TRI-COUNTY REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OFF THE COAST THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE...THE STRONGEST
WINDS REMAIN OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ONSET OF THE BEST HEATING. IF THIS PREFERRED SOLUTION WORKS
OUT...IT APPEARS THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR COASTAL HAZARDS SUCH AS
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AND
OFFSHORE. ALL ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL AS ANY GUIDANCE
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OFFSHORE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETTING UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIOD IS FOR WARMING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. WE MAY ALSO
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SURFACE HEATING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KCHS LATE
AS DEEP MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES TO THE
SOUTH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT KCHS...BASED ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A COMPLEX AND LOWER CONFIDENCE COASTAL WATERS PACKAGE TAKING SHAPE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE
SOUTH WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY EARLY THURSDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. WE KNOW THE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO PINCH AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS SOME WEAK
INLAND RIDGING WHILE PRESSURES FALL ALONG AND OFF THE COAST AHEAD
OF THE LOW. WE CONTINUED TO SHOW A DETERIORATION FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WAVES SLOWLY BUILD TODAY AND THEN SHARPER INCREASES IN
WINDS AND SEAS OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY AND
THEN ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
SOLID ADVISORIES ONGOING AT 09Z-12Z THURSDAY AT THE BUOYS. SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT WITHIN 20 NM WHILE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
CLOSER TO THE STREAM PERHAPS REACH OR EXCEED 10 FT BY DAWN ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST AND ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS OF NOW...THE PREFERRED TRACK IS
FOR THE SYSTEM TO PASS WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DO NOT EXPLICITLY
FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME TROPICAL IN NATURE. AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR ALL OF THE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY FOR THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN HOISTED WITH ENDING TIMES BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. STAY TUNED
TO FORECAST UPDATES AS WELL AS DETAILS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME 2-3 FT SWELL EVERY 8-9 SECONDS.
ROBUST LONGSHORE CURRENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY ALL BEACHES. AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWS OFF THE COAST. THE RISK
MAY THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AND NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TIDES
ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST TIDES ARE 5.9 FT MLLW IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR THE NEXT COUPLE EVENINGS. THE N WINDS WILL PUSH TIDES ABOVE
THAT LEVEL...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH SURGE TO
PUSH THAT TO 7.0 FT AT DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. TIDE LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 061131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND MAY BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY.
THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES JUST NORTH
OF THE BAHAMAS THE MAIN FEATURES TO INITIALIZE THE FORECAST PACKAGE
TODAY. MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON PINCHING OFF A SURFACE LOW
OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THIS MORNING UNDER A REGION OF SHARP
UPPER DIFLUENCE WHERE 250 MB WINDS WERE BACKING TO SE OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INDICATE THE LAYERS BETWEEN
8 AND 18 KFT WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WHILE ENOUGH ATLC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVES IN ALONG AND E OF I-95 TO SUPPORT A FAIR COVERAGE OF CUMULUS
AND STRATOCU LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
FAR INLAND AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE AND WARMEST TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SPIT OUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WE THINK ANY ACTIVITY
WOULD BE SPOTTY AND JUST MAINTAINED 10 POPS ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES
AND FIRST TIER INLAND. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG COASTAL AREAS
TO 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY WITH 15 TO 25 MPH AT AREA BEACHES.

TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM NEARING 30 DEGREES NORTH BY
DAYBREAK MAY BEGIN TO TAKE BETTER TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
UPPER SHEAR DECREASES OVER THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE. POPS COULD QUICKLY RAMP UP ALONG
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS EAST OF LINE FROM BEAUFORT TO SUMMERVILLE
TO JAMESTOWN LATE AS A FLUX OF DEEP ATLC MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES SOMETIME NEARING DAYBREAK. WE REMAIN SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT WITH CHANCE POPS BUT CAN ENVISION
BETTER CHANCES FOR A DAMP MORNING RUSH AROUND CHARLESTON THURSDAY
MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY
LATE TONIGHT PRODUCING BUILDING NORTHERLY BREEZES ALONG COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...THE DETAILS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HINGE GREATLY ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ITS EVENTUAL
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THE SUITE OF MODELS APPEAR TO BE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A
SIMILAR SOLUTION. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS TRACK NOW TAKES THE LOW
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL WESTWARD SLIDE...AND HAS IT
CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR 33N/78W BY LATE SATURDAY. SUCH A POSITION
WOULD PUT THE CENTER ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF CHARLESTON COUNTY. FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...THE 00Z/06
ECMWF WAS THE FAVORED SOLUTION AS IT FOLLOWS THIS SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK VERY CLOSELY. THE REASON THE ECMWF IS FAVORED IS DUE TO ITS
MINIMAL WESTWARD JOG WITH THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE DEEP RIDGE ALOFT. ALSO...IT STANDS TO REASON
THAT HAVING THE LOW RETROGRADE AWAY FROM THE WARMER WATERS OF THE
GULF STREAM SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE ABSENCE OF A PROMINENT STEERING
FEATURE TO THE EAST.

NOW THAT WE HAVE STARTED TO SOLIDIFY THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THE
GENERAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THE QUESTION OF THE CHARACTERIZATION
REMAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT UNDER WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING
SEEMS TO BE POINTING TOWARDS EITHER SOME TYPE OF SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
OR PERHAPS EVEN PURELY TROPICAL. AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD...THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY AND REMAINS AS SUCH THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE GULF STREAM
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AS WELL. FURTHERMORE...PHASE
DIAGRAM ANALYSES CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WARM CORE SYSTEM. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS INCREASED THE OUTLOOK TO MODERATE FOR
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN ITS 5 DAY OUTLOOK...AND A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MAY EXPLORE THE STORM LATER TODAY.

HOWEVER...ITS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
THE SYSTEM REMAINS PURELY EXTRATROPICAL OR BECOMES A CLASSIFIED
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME GIVEN
THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SLOW NORTHWARD AND WELL OFFSHORE TRACK. SUCH
A TRACK WOULD SOLIDLY PUT THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WEAKER AND DRIER
SIDE OF THE STORM. IN FACT...THE PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
LIMIT ALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO THE TRI-COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EASTERN CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTLINE. IN FACT...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WOULD INCREASINGLY BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH TIME
WHICH WOULD FAVOR A WARMING TREND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED AND HAVE ESSENTIALLY
BEEN LIMITED TO JUST THE TRI-COUNTY REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OFF THE COAST THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE...THE STRONGEST
WINDS REMAIN OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ONSET OF THE BEST HEATING. IF THIS PREFERRED SOLUTION WORKS
OUT...IT APPEARS THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR COASTAL HAZARDS SUCH AS
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AND
OFFSHORE. ALL ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL AS ANY GUIDANCE
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OFFSHORE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETTING UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIOD IS FOR WARMING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. WE MAY ALSO
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SURFACE HEATING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KCHS LATE
AS DEEP MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES TO THE
SOUTH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT KCHS...BASED ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A COMPLEX AND LOWER CONFIDENCE COASTAL WATERS PACKAGE TAKING SHAPE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE
SOUTH WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY EARLY THURSDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. WE KNOW THE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO PINCH AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS SOME WEAK
INLAND RIDGING WHILE PRESSURES FALL ALONG AND OFF THE COAST AHEAD
OF THE LOW. WE CONTINUED TO SHOW A DETERIORATION FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WAVES SLOWLY BUILD TODAY AND THEN SHARPER INCREASES IN
WINDS AND SEAS OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY AND
THEN ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
SOLID ADVISORIES ONGOING AT 09Z-12Z THURSDAY AT THE BUOYS. SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT WITHIN 20 NM WHILE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
CLOSER TO THE STREAM PERHAPS REACH OR EXCEED 10 FT BY DAWN ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST AND ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS OF NOW...THE PREFERRED TRACK IS
FOR THE SYSTEM TO PASS WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DO NOT EXPLICITLY
FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME TROPICAL IN NATURE. AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR ALL OF THE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY FOR THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN HOISTED WITH ENDING TIMES BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. STAY TUNED
TO FORECAST UPDATES AS WELL AS DETAILS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME 2-3 FT SWELL EVERY 8-9 SECONDS.
ROBUST LONGSHORE CURRENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY ALL BEACHES. AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWS OFF THE COAST. THE RISK
MAY THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AND NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TIDES
ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST TIDES ARE 5.9 FT MLLW IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR THE NEXT COUPLE EVENINGS. THE N WINDS WILL PUSH TIDES ABOVE
THAT LEVEL...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH SURGE TO
PUSH THAT TO 7.0 FT AT DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. TIDE LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 061131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND MAY BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY.
THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES JUST NORTH
OF THE BAHAMAS THE MAIN FEATURES TO INITIALIZE THE FORECAST PACKAGE
TODAY. MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON PINCHING OFF A SURFACE LOW
OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THIS MORNING UNDER A REGION OF SHARP
UPPER DIFLUENCE WHERE 250 MB WINDS WERE BACKING TO SE OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INDICATE THE LAYERS BETWEEN
8 AND 18 KFT WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WHILE ENOUGH ATLC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVES IN ALONG AND E OF I-95 TO SUPPORT A FAIR COVERAGE OF CUMULUS
AND STRATOCU LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
FAR INLAND AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE AND WARMEST TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SPIT OUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WE THINK ANY ACTIVITY
WOULD BE SPOTTY AND JUST MAINTAINED 10 POPS ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES
AND FIRST TIER INLAND. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG COASTAL AREAS
TO 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY WITH 15 TO 25 MPH AT AREA BEACHES.

TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM NEARING 30 DEGREES NORTH BY
DAYBREAK MAY BEGIN TO TAKE BETTER TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
UPPER SHEAR DECREASES OVER THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE. POPS COULD QUICKLY RAMP UP ALONG
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS EAST OF LINE FROM BEAUFORT TO SUMMERVILLE
TO JAMESTOWN LATE AS A FLUX OF DEEP ATLC MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES SOMETIME NEARING DAYBREAK. WE REMAIN SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT WITH CHANCE POPS BUT CAN ENVISION
BETTER CHANCES FOR A DAMP MORNING RUSH AROUND CHARLESTON THURSDAY
MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY
LATE TONIGHT PRODUCING BUILDING NORTHERLY BREEZES ALONG COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...THE DETAILS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HINGE GREATLY ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ITS EVENTUAL
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THE SUITE OF MODELS APPEAR TO BE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A
SIMILAR SOLUTION. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS TRACK NOW TAKES THE LOW
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL WESTWARD SLIDE...AND HAS IT
CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR 33N/78W BY LATE SATURDAY. SUCH A POSITION
WOULD PUT THE CENTER ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF CHARLESTON COUNTY. FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...THE 00Z/06
ECMWF WAS THE FAVORED SOLUTION AS IT FOLLOWS THIS SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK VERY CLOSELY. THE REASON THE ECMWF IS FAVORED IS DUE TO ITS
MINIMAL WESTWARD JOG WITH THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE DEEP RIDGE ALOFT. ALSO...IT STANDS TO REASON
THAT HAVING THE LOW RETROGRADE AWAY FROM THE WARMER WATERS OF THE
GULF STREAM SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE ABSENCE OF A PROMINENT STEERING
FEATURE TO THE EAST.

NOW THAT WE HAVE STARTED TO SOLIDIFY THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THE
GENERAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THE QUESTION OF THE CHARACTERIZATION
REMAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT UNDER WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING
SEEMS TO BE POINTING TOWARDS EITHER SOME TYPE OF SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
OR PERHAPS EVEN PURELY TROPICAL. AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD...THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY AND REMAINS AS SUCH THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE GULF STREAM
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AS WELL. FURTHERMORE...PHASE
DIAGRAM ANALYSES CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WARM CORE SYSTEM. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS INCREASED THE OUTLOOK TO MODERATE FOR
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN ITS 5 DAY OUTLOOK...AND A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MAY EXPLORE THE STORM LATER TODAY.

HOWEVER...ITS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
THE SYSTEM REMAINS PURELY EXTRATROPICAL OR BECOMES A CLASSIFIED
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME GIVEN
THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SLOW NORTHWARD AND WELL OFFSHORE TRACK. SUCH
A TRACK WOULD SOLIDLY PUT THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WEAKER AND DRIER
SIDE OF THE STORM. IN FACT...THE PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
LIMIT ALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO THE TRI-COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EASTERN CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTLINE. IN FACT...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WOULD INCREASINGLY BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH TIME
WHICH WOULD FAVOR A WARMING TREND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED AND HAVE ESSENTIALLY
BEEN LIMITED TO JUST THE TRI-COUNTY REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OFF THE COAST THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE...THE STRONGEST
WINDS REMAIN OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ONSET OF THE BEST HEATING. IF THIS PREFERRED SOLUTION WORKS
OUT...IT APPEARS THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR COASTAL HAZARDS SUCH AS
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AND
OFFSHORE. ALL ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL AS ANY GUIDANCE
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OFFSHORE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETTING UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIOD IS FOR WARMING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. WE MAY ALSO
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SURFACE HEATING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KCHS LATE
AS DEEP MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES TO THE
SOUTH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT KCHS...BASED ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A COMPLEX AND LOWER CONFIDENCE COASTAL WATERS PACKAGE TAKING SHAPE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE
SOUTH WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY EARLY THURSDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. WE KNOW THE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO PINCH AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS SOME WEAK
INLAND RIDGING WHILE PRESSURES FALL ALONG AND OFF THE COAST AHEAD
OF THE LOW. WE CONTINUED TO SHOW A DETERIORATION FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WAVES SLOWLY BUILD TODAY AND THEN SHARPER INCREASES IN
WINDS AND SEAS OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY AND
THEN ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
SOLID ADVISORIES ONGOING AT 09Z-12Z THURSDAY AT THE BUOYS. SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT WITHIN 20 NM WHILE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
CLOSER TO THE STREAM PERHAPS REACH OR EXCEED 10 FT BY DAWN ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST AND ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS OF NOW...THE PREFERRED TRACK IS
FOR THE SYSTEM TO PASS WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DO NOT EXPLICITLY
FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME TROPICAL IN NATURE. AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR ALL OF THE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY FOR THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN HOISTED WITH ENDING TIMES BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. STAY TUNED
TO FORECAST UPDATES AS WELL AS DETAILS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME 2-3 FT SWELL EVERY 8-9 SECONDS.
ROBUST LONGSHORE CURRENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY ALL BEACHES. AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWS OFF THE COAST. THE RISK
MAY THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AND NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TIDES
ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST TIDES ARE 5.9 FT MLLW IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR THE NEXT COUPLE EVENINGS. THE N WINDS WILL PUSH TIDES ABOVE
THAT LEVEL...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH SURGE TO
PUSH THAT TO 7.0 FT AT DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. TIDE LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 060835
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
435 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND MAY BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY.
THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...MAINLY HIGH THIN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE AGAIN NORTH OF I-16 AND INLAND FROM
U.S. 17 IN SE SOUTH CAROLINA. BY DAWN...MID TO UPPER 50S SHOULD BE
THE RULE IN COOLER INLAND AREAS WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S CLOSING
IN ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE NE WINDS HAVE BEEN STIRRING EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL ATLC MOISTURE ADVECTION WAS ONGOING OFF THE
COAST AND LIGHT SHOWERS OFFSHORE WERE DISSIPATING MOVING ONSHORE
WHERE A DRY DEEP LAYERED AIR MASS WAS ANCHORED.

SURFACE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS THE MAIN FEATURES TO INITIALIZE THE FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY.
MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON PINCHING OFF A SURFACE LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THIS MORNING UNDER A REGION OF SHARP UPPER
DIFLUENCE WHERE 250 MB WINDS WERE BACKING TO SE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INDICATE THE LAYERS
BETWEEN 8 AND 18 KFT WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WHILE ENOUGH ATLC LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN ALONG AND E OF I-95 TO SUPPORT A FAIR
COVERAGE OF CUMULUS AND STRATOCU LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. FAR INLAND AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST
SUNSHINE AND WARMEST TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SPIT OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WE THINK ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE SPOTTY AND JUST
MAINTAINED 10 POPS ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES AND FIRST TIER INLAND.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG COASTAL AREAS TO 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY
WITH 15 TO 25 MPH AT AREA BEACHES.

TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM NEARING 30 DEGREES NORTH BY
DAYBREAK MAY BEGIN TO TAKE BETTER TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
UPPER SHEAR DECREASES OVER THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE. POPS COULD QUICKLY RAMP UP ALONG
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS EAST OF LINE FROM BEAUFORT TO SUMMERVILLE
TO JAMESTOWN LATE AS A FLUX OF DEEP ATLC MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES SOMETIME NEARING DAYBREAK. WE REMAIN SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT WITH CHANCE POPS BUT CAN ENVISION
BETTER CHANCES FOR A DAMP MORNING RUSH AROUND CHARLESTON THURSDAY
MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY
LATE TONIGHT PRODUCING BUILDING NORTHERLY BREEZES ALONG COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...THE DETAILS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HINGE GREATLY ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ITS EVENTUAL
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THE SUITE OF MODELS APPEAR TO BE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A
SIMILAR SOLUTION. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS TRACK NOW TAKES THE LOW
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL WESTWARD SLIDE...AND HAS IT
CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR 33N/78W BY LATE SATURDAY. SUCH A POSITION
WOULD PUT THE CENTER ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF CHARLESTON COUNTY. FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...THE 00Z/06
ECMWF WAS THE FAVORED SOLUTION AS IT FOLLOWS THIS SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK VERY CLOSELY. THE REASON THE ECMWF IS FAVORED IS DUE TO ITS
MINIMAL WESTWARD JOG WITH THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE DEEP RIDGE ALOFT. ALSO...IT STANDS TO REASON
THAT HAVING THE LOW RETROGRADE AWAY FROM THE WARMER WATERS OF THE
GULF STREAM SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE ABSENCE OF A PROMINENT STEERING
FEATURE TO THE EAST.

NOW THAT WE HAVE STARTED TO SOLIDIFY THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THE
GENERAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THE QUESTION OF THE CHARACTERIZATION
REMAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT UNDER WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING
SEEMS TO BE POINTING TOWARDS EITHER SOME TYPE OF SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
OR PERHAPS EVEN PURELY TROPICAL. AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD...THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY AND REMAINS AS SUCH THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE GULF STREAM
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AS WELL. FURTHERMORE...PHASE
DIAGRAM ANALYSES CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WARM CORE SYSTEM. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS INCREASED THE OUTLOOK TO MODERATE FOR
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN ITS 5 DAY OUTLOOK...AND A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MAY EXPLORE THE STORM LATER TODAY.

HOWEVER...ITS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
THE SYSTEM REMAINS PURELY EXTRATROPICAL OR BECOMES A CLASSIFIED
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME GIVEN
THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SLOW NORTHWARD AND WELL OFFSHORE TRACK. SUCH
A TRACK WOULD SOLIDLY PUT THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WEAKER AND DRIER
SIDE OF THE STORM. IN FACT...THE PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
LIMIT ALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO THE TRI-COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EASTERN CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTLINE. IN FACT...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WOULD INCREASINGLY BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH TIME
WHICH WOULD FAVOR A WARMING TREND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED AND HAVE ESSENTIALLY
BEEN LIMITED TO JUST THE TRI-COUNTY REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OFF THE COAST THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE...THE STRONGEST
WINDS REMAIN OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ONSET OF THE BEST HEATING. IF THIS PREFERRED SOLUTION WORKS
OUT...IT APPEARS THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR COASTAL HAZARDS SUCH AS
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AND
OFFSHORE. ALL ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL AS ANY GUIDANCE
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OFFSHORE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETTING UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIOD IS FOR WARMING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. WE MAY ALSO
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SURFACE HEATING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT KCHS...BASED ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A COMPLEX AND LOWER CONFIDENCE COASTAL WATERS PACKAGE TAKING SHAPE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE
SOUTH WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY EARLY THURSDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. WE KNOW THE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO PINCH AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS SOME WEAK
INLAND RIDGING WHILE PRESSURES FALL ALONG AND OFF THE COAST AHEAD
OF THE LOW. WE CONTINUED TO SHOW A DETERIORATION FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WAVES SLOWLY BUILD TODAY AND THEN SHARPER INCREASES IN
WINDS AND SEAS OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY AND
THEN ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
SOLID ADVISORIES ONGOING AT 09Z-12Z THURSDAY AT THE BUOYS. SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT WITHIN 20 NM WHILE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
CLOSER TO THE STREAM PERHAPS REACH OR EXCEED 10 FT BY DAWN ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST AND ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS OF NOW...THE PREFERRED TRACK IS
FOR THE SYSTEM TO PASS WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DO NOT EXPLICITLY
FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME TROPICAL IN NATURE. AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR ALL OF THE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY FOR THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN HOISTED WITH ENDING TIMES BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. STAY TUNED
TO FORECAST UPDATES AS WELL AS DETAILS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GA COAST
TODAY DUE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME 1-2 FT SWELL EVERY
8-9 SECONDS. ROBUST LONGSHORE CURRENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY ALL
BEACHES. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFF THE
COAST. THE RISK MAY THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE OFFSHORE AND NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TIDES
ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST TIDES ARE 5.9 FT MLLW IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR THE NEXT COUPLE EVENINGS. THE N WINDS WILL PUSH TIDES ABOVE
THAT LEVEL...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH SURGE TO
PUSH THAT TO 7.0 FT AT DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. TIDE LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 060835
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
435 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND MAY BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY.
THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...MAINLY HIGH THIN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE AGAIN NORTH OF I-16 AND INLAND FROM
U.S. 17 IN SE SOUTH CAROLINA. BY DAWN...MID TO UPPER 50S SHOULD BE
THE RULE IN COOLER INLAND AREAS WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S CLOSING
IN ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE NE WINDS HAVE BEEN STIRRING EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL ATLC MOISTURE ADVECTION WAS ONGOING OFF THE
COAST AND LIGHT SHOWERS OFFSHORE WERE DISSIPATING MOVING ONSHORE
WHERE A DRY DEEP LAYERED AIR MASS WAS ANCHORED.

SURFACE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS THE MAIN FEATURES TO INITIALIZE THE FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY.
MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON PINCHING OFF A SURFACE LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THIS MORNING UNDER A REGION OF SHARP UPPER
DIFLUENCE WHERE 250 MB WINDS WERE BACKING TO SE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INDICATE THE LAYERS
BETWEEN 8 AND 18 KFT WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WHILE ENOUGH ATLC LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN ALONG AND E OF I-95 TO SUPPORT A FAIR
COVERAGE OF CUMULUS AND STRATOCU LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. FAR INLAND AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST
SUNSHINE AND WARMEST TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SPIT OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WE THINK ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE SPOTTY AND JUST
MAINTAINED 10 POPS ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES AND FIRST TIER INLAND.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG COASTAL AREAS TO 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY
WITH 15 TO 25 MPH AT AREA BEACHES.

TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE GULF STREAM NEARING 30 DEGREES NORTH BY
DAYBREAK MAY BEGIN TO TAKE BETTER TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
UPPER SHEAR DECREASES OVER THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE. POPS COULD QUICKLY RAMP UP ALONG
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS EAST OF LINE FROM BEAUFORT TO SUMMERVILLE
TO JAMESTOWN LATE AS A FLUX OF DEEP ATLC MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES SOMETIME NEARING DAYBREAK. WE REMAIN SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT WITH CHANCE POPS BUT CAN ENVISION
BETTER CHANCES FOR A DAMP MORNING RUSH AROUND CHARLESTON THURSDAY
MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY
LATE TONIGHT PRODUCING BUILDING NORTHERLY BREEZES ALONG COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...THE DETAILS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HINGE GREATLY ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ITS EVENTUAL
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THE SUITE OF MODELS APPEAR TO BE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A
SIMILAR SOLUTION. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS TRACK NOW TAKES THE LOW
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL WESTWARD SLIDE...AND HAS IT
CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR 33N/78W BY LATE SATURDAY. SUCH A POSITION
WOULD PUT THE CENTER ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF CHARLESTON COUNTY. FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...THE 00Z/06
ECMWF WAS THE FAVORED SOLUTION AS IT FOLLOWS THIS SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK VERY CLOSELY. THE REASON THE ECMWF IS FAVORED IS DUE TO ITS
MINIMAL WESTWARD JOG WITH THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE DEEP RIDGE ALOFT. ALSO...IT STANDS TO REASON
THAT HAVING THE LOW RETROGRADE AWAY FROM THE WARMER WATERS OF THE
GULF STREAM SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE ABSENCE OF A PROMINENT STEERING
FEATURE TO THE EAST.

NOW THAT WE HAVE STARTED TO SOLIDIFY THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THE
GENERAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THE QUESTION OF THE CHARACTERIZATION
REMAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT UNDER WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING
SEEMS TO BE POINTING TOWARDS EITHER SOME TYPE OF SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
OR PERHAPS EVEN PURELY TROPICAL. AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD...THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY AND REMAINS AS SUCH THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE GULF STREAM
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AS WELL. FURTHERMORE...PHASE
DIAGRAM ANALYSES CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WARM CORE SYSTEM. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS INCREASED THE OUTLOOK TO MODERATE FOR
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN ITS 5 DAY OUTLOOK...AND A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MAY EXPLORE THE STORM LATER TODAY.

HOWEVER...ITS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
THE SYSTEM REMAINS PURELY EXTRATROPICAL OR BECOMES A CLASSIFIED
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME GIVEN
THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SLOW NORTHWARD AND WELL OFFSHORE TRACK. SUCH
A TRACK WOULD SOLIDLY PUT THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WEAKER AND DRIER
SIDE OF THE STORM. IN FACT...THE PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
LIMIT ALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO THE TRI-COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EASTERN CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTLINE. IN FACT...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WOULD INCREASINGLY BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH TIME
WHICH WOULD FAVOR A WARMING TREND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED AND HAVE ESSENTIALLY
BEEN LIMITED TO JUST THE TRI-COUNTY REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OFF THE COAST THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE...THE STRONGEST
WINDS REMAIN OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ONSET OF THE BEST HEATING. IF THIS PREFERRED SOLUTION WORKS
OUT...IT APPEARS THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR COASTAL HAZARDS SUCH AS
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AND
OFFSHORE. ALL ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL AS ANY GUIDANCE
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OFFSHORE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETTING UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIOD IS FOR WARMING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. WE MAY ALSO
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SURFACE HEATING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT KCHS...BASED ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A COMPLEX AND LOWER CONFIDENCE COASTAL WATERS PACKAGE TAKING SHAPE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE
SOUTH WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY EARLY THURSDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. WE KNOW THE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO PINCH AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS SOME WEAK
INLAND RIDGING WHILE PRESSURES FALL ALONG AND OFF THE COAST AHEAD
OF THE LOW. WE CONTINUED TO SHOW A DETERIORATION FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WAVES SLOWLY BUILD TODAY AND THEN SHARPER INCREASES IN
WINDS AND SEAS OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY AND
THEN ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
SOLID ADVISORIES ONGOING AT 09Z-12Z THURSDAY AT THE BUOYS. SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 5-6 FT WITHIN 20 NM WHILE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
CLOSER TO THE STREAM PERHAPS REACH OR EXCEED 10 FT BY DAWN ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST AND ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS OF NOW...THE PREFERRED TRACK IS
FOR THE SYSTEM TO PASS WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DO NOT EXPLICITLY
FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME TROPICAL IN NATURE. AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR ALL OF THE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY FOR THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN HOISTED WITH ENDING TIMES BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. STAY TUNED
TO FORECAST UPDATES AS WELL AS DETAILS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GA COAST
TODAY DUE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME 1-2 FT SWELL EVERY
8-9 SECONDS. ROBUST LONGSHORE CURRENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY ALL
BEACHES. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFF THE
COAST. THE RISK MAY THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE OFFSHORE AND NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TIDES
ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST TIDES ARE 5.9 FT MLLW IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR THE NEXT COUPLE EVENINGS. THE N WINDS WILL PUSH TIDES ABOVE
THAT LEVEL...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH SURGE TO
PUSH THAT TO 7.0 FT AT DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. TIDE LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCAE 060756
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
356 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY JUST NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. IT
WILL THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM
COULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GA THIS MORNING.
MODELS DEPICT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY FORMS OFF
THE FLORIDA COAST JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS FEATURE WILL
SLOWLY ORGANIZE AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY JUST OFF THE
NRN FLORIDA COAST. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON DUE TO AMOUNT/DENSITY OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS INDICATE AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 80S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSE TO OUR JUST
BELOW READINGS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED AND BY THURSDAY MORNING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND BY
THURSDAY EVENING IT WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ALL OF
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BY
TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS
BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY PATH WITH ONLY A LITTLE MOVEMENT
TO THE NW POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND SERN NC THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EAST OF CHARLESTON/SOUTH OF
WILMINGTON. AT THIS TIME THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
FORECASTING A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN 48
HOURS AND A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 5
DAYS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH MORE CLOUDINESS AND HIGHER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR WESTWARD THE
RAINFALL WILL PUSH AND THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE LATEST RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. COASTAL
LOW EXPECTED TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE/ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY AND
MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE GFS
HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GRAND STRAND/NORTH COAST AND
THE ECMWF HAS SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL EJECT THE LOW FROM THE AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH FROPA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY SUBSIDENCE FROM THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM OFF THE NC COAST WILL
WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND DRIFTS
NORTH. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT SOME SCT DAYTIME CU TO DEVELOP AROUND 5000 FT
AFTER 16Z.

THE HIGH CLOUDS AND A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND SHOULD INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE VARIABLE VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIVER FOG AT AGS IN THE 07Z-11Z TIME-FRAME.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL STATES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 060756
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
356 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY JUST NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. IT
WILL THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM
COULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GA THIS MORNING.
MODELS DEPICT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY FORMS OFF
THE FLORIDA COAST JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS FEATURE WILL
SLOWLY ORGANIZE AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY JUST OFF THE
NRN FLORIDA COAST. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON DUE TO AMOUNT/DENSITY OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS INDICATE AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 80S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSE TO OUR JUST
BELOW READINGS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED AND BY THURSDAY MORNING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND BY
THURSDAY EVENING IT WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ALL OF
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BY
TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS
BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY PATH WITH ONLY A LITTLE MOVEMENT
TO THE NW POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND SERN NC THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EAST OF CHARLESTON/SOUTH OF
WILMINGTON. AT THIS TIME THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
FORECASTING A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN 48
HOURS AND A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 5
DAYS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH MORE CLOUDINESS AND HIGHER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR WESTWARD THE
RAINFALL WILL PUSH AND THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE LATEST RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. COASTAL
LOW EXPECTED TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE/ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY AND
MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE GFS
HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GRAND STRAND/NORTH COAST AND
THE ECMWF HAS SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL EJECT THE LOW FROM THE AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH FROPA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY SUBSIDENCE FROM THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM OFF THE NC COAST WILL
WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND DRIFTS
NORTH. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT SOME SCT DAYTIME CU TO DEVELOP AROUND 5000 FT
AFTER 16Z.

THE HIGH CLOUDS AND A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND SHOULD INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE VARIABLE VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIVER FOG AT AGS IN THE 07Z-11Z TIME-FRAME.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL STATES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 060756
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
356 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY JUST NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. IT
WILL THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM
COULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GA THIS MORNING.
MODELS DEPICT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY FORMS OFF
THE FLORIDA COAST JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS FEATURE WILL
SLOWLY ORGANIZE AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY JUST OFF THE
NRN FLORIDA COAST. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON DUE TO AMOUNT/DENSITY OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS INDICATE AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 80S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSE TO OUR JUST
BELOW READINGS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED AND BY THURSDAY MORNING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND BY
THURSDAY EVENING IT WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ALL OF
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BY
TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS
BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY PATH WITH ONLY A LITTLE MOVEMENT
TO THE NW POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND SERN NC THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EAST OF CHARLESTON/SOUTH OF
WILMINGTON. AT THIS TIME THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
FORECASTING A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN 48
HOURS AND A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 5
DAYS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH MORE CLOUDINESS AND HIGHER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR WESTWARD THE
RAINFALL WILL PUSH AND THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE LATEST RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. COASTAL
LOW EXPECTED TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE/ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY AND
MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE GFS
HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GRAND STRAND/NORTH COAST AND
THE ECMWF HAS SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL EJECT THE LOW FROM THE AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH FROPA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY SUBSIDENCE FROM THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM OFF THE NC COAST WILL
WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND DRIFTS
NORTH. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT SOME SCT DAYTIME CU TO DEVELOP AROUND 5000 FT
AFTER 16Z.

THE HIGH CLOUDS AND A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND SHOULD INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE VARIABLE VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIVER FOG AT AGS IN THE 07Z-11Z TIME-FRAME.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL STATES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 060756
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
356 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY JUST NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. IT
WILL THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM
COULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GA THIS MORNING.
MODELS DEPICT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY FORMS OFF
THE FLORIDA COAST JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS FEATURE WILL
SLOWLY ORGANIZE AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY JUST OFF THE
NRN FLORIDA COAST. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON DUE TO AMOUNT/DENSITY OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS INDICATE AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 80S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSE TO OUR JUST
BELOW READINGS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED AND BY THURSDAY MORNING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND BY
THURSDAY EVENING IT WILL BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ALL OF
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BY
TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS
BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY PATH WITH ONLY A LITTLE MOVEMENT
TO THE NW POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND SERN NC THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EAST OF CHARLESTON/SOUTH OF
WILMINGTON. AT THIS TIME THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
FORECASTING A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN 48
HOURS AND A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 5
DAYS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH MORE CLOUDINESS AND HIGHER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR WESTWARD THE
RAINFALL WILL PUSH AND THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE LATEST RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. COASTAL
LOW EXPECTED TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE/ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY AND
MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE GFS
HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GRAND STRAND/NORTH COAST AND
THE ECMWF HAS SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL EJECT THE LOW FROM THE AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH FROPA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY SUBSIDENCE FROM THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM OFF THE NC COAST WILL
WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND DRIFTS
NORTH. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT SOME SCT DAYTIME CU TO DEVELOP AROUND 5000 FT
AFTER 16Z.

THE HIGH CLOUDS AND A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND SHOULD INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE VARIABLE VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIVER FOG AT AGS IN THE 07Z-11Z TIME-FRAME.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL STATES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KFFC 060742
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED IN SHORT TERM AS FAR AS LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO JUST OFF SHORE THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY THIS EVENING.  ECMWF HAS HAD THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY
KEEPING THE SYSTEM FURTHER EAST...BUT OVERALL ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH THE LACK
OF ANY DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA YESTERDAY...HAVE DROPPED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.
EXPECT FEW-SCT MID CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.  GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
PERFORMING WELL AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS WELL...SO WILL STAY THE
COURSE AS FAR AS THAT IS CONCERNED.

ATWELL


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE COASTAL LOW SOLUTION.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE LOW JUST EAST OF MYRTLE BEACH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND A
SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER...THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE
LOW WITH THE GFS BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO GA WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE CWA DRY. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE LOW NEARS MYR. AFTER THE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHEAST...THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS. NO
WEATHER EXPECTED AT TAF SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  57  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
ATLANTA         82  60  83  62 /   0   0   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     80  52  79  56 /   5   0  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    82  55  83  57 /   0   0   5   0
COLUMBUS        83  59  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     81  58  81  60 /   0   0   5   0
MACON           83  56  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            84  55  84  57 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  83  54  83  58 /   0   0   5   0
VIDALIA         83  60  82  63 /   0   5  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATWELL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 060742
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED IN SHORT TERM AS FAR AS LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO JUST OFF SHORE THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY THIS EVENING.  ECMWF HAS HAD THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY
KEEPING THE SYSTEM FURTHER EAST...BUT OVERALL ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH THE LACK
OF ANY DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA YESTERDAY...HAVE DROPPED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.
EXPECT FEW-SCT MID CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.  GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
PERFORMING WELL AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS WELL...SO WILL STAY THE
COURSE AS FAR AS THAT IS CONCERNED.

ATWELL


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE COASTAL LOW SOLUTION.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE LOW JUST EAST OF MYRTLE BEACH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND A
SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER...THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE
LOW WITH THE GFS BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO GA WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE CWA DRY. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE LOW NEARS MYR. AFTER THE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHEAST...THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS. NO
WEATHER EXPECTED AT TAF SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  57  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
ATLANTA         82  60  83  62 /   0   0   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     80  52  79  56 /   5   0  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    82  55  83  57 /   0   0   5   0
COLUMBUS        83  59  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     81  58  81  60 /   0   0   5   0
MACON           83  56  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            84  55  84  57 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  83  54  83  58 /   0   0   5   0
VIDALIA         83  60  82  63 /   0   5  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATWELL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 060742
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED IN SHORT TERM AS FAR AS LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO JUST OFF SHORE THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY THIS EVENING.  ECMWF HAS HAD THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY
KEEPING THE SYSTEM FURTHER EAST...BUT OVERALL ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH THE LACK
OF ANY DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA YESTERDAY...HAVE DROPPED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.
EXPECT FEW-SCT MID CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.  GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
PERFORMING WELL AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS WELL...SO WILL STAY THE
COURSE AS FAR AS THAT IS CONCERNED.

ATWELL


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE COASTAL LOW SOLUTION.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE LOW JUST EAST OF MYRTLE BEACH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND A
SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER...THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE
LOW WITH THE GFS BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO GA WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE CWA DRY. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE LOW NEARS MYR. AFTER THE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHEAST...THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS. NO
WEATHER EXPECTED AT TAF SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  57  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
ATLANTA         82  60  83  62 /   0   0   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     80  52  79  56 /   5   0  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    82  55  83  57 /   0   0   5   0
COLUMBUS        83  59  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     81  58  81  60 /   0   0   5   0
MACON           83  56  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            84  55  84  57 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  83  54  83  58 /   0   0   5   0
VIDALIA         83  60  82  63 /   0   5  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATWELL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 060742
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED IN SHORT TERM AS FAR AS LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO JUST OFF SHORE THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY THIS EVENING.  ECMWF HAS HAD THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY
KEEPING THE SYSTEM FURTHER EAST...BUT OVERALL ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH THE LACK
OF ANY DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA YESTERDAY...HAVE DROPPED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.
EXPECT FEW-SCT MID CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.  GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
PERFORMING WELL AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS WELL...SO WILL STAY THE
COURSE AS FAR AS THAT IS CONCERNED.

ATWELL


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE COASTAL LOW SOLUTION.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE LOW JUST EAST OF MYRTLE BEACH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND A
SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER...THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE
LOW WITH THE GFS BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO GA WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE CWA DRY. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE LOW NEARS MYR. AFTER THE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHEAST...THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS. NO
WEATHER EXPECTED AT TAF SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  57  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
ATLANTA         82  60  83  62 /   0   0   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     80  52  79  56 /   5   0  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    82  55  83  57 /   0   0   5   0
COLUMBUS        83  59  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     81  58  81  60 /   0   0   5   0
MACON           83  56  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            84  55  84  57 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  83  54  83  58 /   0   0   5   0
VIDALIA         83  60  82  63 /   0   5  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATWELL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 060742
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED IN SHORT TERM AS FAR AS LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO JUST OFF SHORE THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY THIS EVENING.  ECMWF HAS HAD THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY
KEEPING THE SYSTEM FURTHER EAST...BUT OVERALL ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH THE LACK
OF ANY DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA YESTERDAY...HAVE DROPPED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.
EXPECT FEW-SCT MID CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.  GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
PERFORMING WELL AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS WELL...SO WILL STAY THE
COURSE AS FAR AS THAT IS CONCERNED.

ATWELL


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE COASTAL LOW SOLUTION.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE LOW JUST EAST OF MYRTLE BEACH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND A
SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER...THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE
LOW WITH THE GFS BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO GA WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE CWA DRY. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE LOW NEARS MYR. AFTER THE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHEAST...THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS. NO
WEATHER EXPECTED AT TAF SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  57  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
ATLANTA         82  60  83  62 /   0   0   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     80  52  79  56 /   5   0  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    82  55  83  57 /   0   0   5   0
COLUMBUS        83  59  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     81  58  81  60 /   0   0   5   0
MACON           83  56  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            84  55  84  57 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  83  54  83  58 /   0   0   5   0
VIDALIA         83  60  82  63 /   0   5  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATWELL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 060742
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED IN SHORT TERM AS FAR AS LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO JUST OFF SHORE THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY THIS EVENING.  ECMWF HAS HAD THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY
KEEPING THE SYSTEM FURTHER EAST...BUT OVERALL ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH THE LACK
OF ANY DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA YESTERDAY...HAVE DROPPED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.
EXPECT FEW-SCT MID CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.  GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
PERFORMING WELL AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS WELL...SO WILL STAY THE
COURSE AS FAR AS THAT IS CONCERNED.

ATWELL


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE COASTAL LOW SOLUTION.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE LOW JUST EAST OF MYRTLE BEACH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND A
SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER...THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE
LOW WITH THE GFS BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO GA WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE CWA DRY. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE LOW NEARS MYR. AFTER THE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHEAST...THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS. NO
WEATHER EXPECTED AT TAF SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  57  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
ATLANTA         82  60  83  62 /   0   0   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     80  52  79  56 /   5   0  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    82  55  83  57 /   0   0   5   0
COLUMBUS        83  59  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     81  58  81  60 /   0   0   5   0
MACON           83  56  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            84  55  84  57 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  83  54  83  58 /   0   0   5   0
VIDALIA         83  60  82  63 /   0   5  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATWELL



000
FXUS62 KFFC 060549
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
149 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

UPDATE...
FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS
THE REGION. NO MAJOR GRID UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD... EVEN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION... EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. INCREASED ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GA MOUNTAINS DUE TO UPSLOPING FLOW BUT NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THAT AREA BUT NOTHING MAJOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THINGS
SUBDUED. AS FAR AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM GOES...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THE MAIN LOW CENTER WHICH IS NOW JUST SE OF SOUTHERN FL
DEEPENING AND MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY 18Z WED
IT SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE FL COAST DUE EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH. IT
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z THU TO JUST OF
THE GA/SC COAST. AFTER THIS THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO THE
EXTENDED. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT
STRAY TOO FAR.

01

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIAL CONCERN IS THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY... THAT
MEANDERS NORTHWARD OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS ON
THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLY DRIFTING SLIGHTLY INLAND OVER PARTS
OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY... AND MEANDERING
IN THAT AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THE SURFACE LOW DOES DRIFT
INLAND... A WEAKENING TREND WOULD BE EXPECTED. BOTH MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION BY MONDAY...
AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ABSORB AND LIFT THE REMNANTS OF
THE COASTAL LOW NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL FIELDS
ARE SHOWING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /1000-2000 MUCAPE/ TO EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT LEAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER... SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK...
AND SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
THIS COULD CHANGE... SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECAST.

39


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILLPERSIST THROUGH THETAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS. NO WEATHER
EXPECTED AT TAF SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  57  83  60 /   5   0  10  10
ATLANTA         82  57  83  63 /   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     79  55  80  54 /  20   5  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    82  54  83  58 /   5   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        84  59  85  61 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     81  58  82  61 /   5   5  10  10
MACON           82  57  83  59 /   5   5  10   5
ROME            84  54  84  57 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  82  56  83  58 /   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         83  61  82  62 /   0   5  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
AVIATION...ATWELL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 060549
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
149 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

UPDATE...
FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS
THE REGION. NO MAJOR GRID UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD... EVEN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION... EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. INCREASED ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GA MOUNTAINS DUE TO UPSLOPING FLOW BUT NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THAT AREA BUT NOTHING MAJOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THINGS
SUBDUED. AS FAR AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM GOES...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THE MAIN LOW CENTER WHICH IS NOW JUST SE OF SOUTHERN FL
DEEPENING AND MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY 18Z WED
IT SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE FL COAST DUE EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH. IT
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z THU TO JUST OF
THE GA/SC COAST. AFTER THIS THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO THE
EXTENDED. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT
STRAY TOO FAR.

01

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIAL CONCERN IS THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY... THAT
MEANDERS NORTHWARD OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS ON
THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLY DRIFTING SLIGHTLY INLAND OVER PARTS
OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY... AND MEANDERING
IN THAT AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THE SURFACE LOW DOES DRIFT
INLAND... A WEAKENING TREND WOULD BE EXPECTED. BOTH MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION BY MONDAY...
AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ABSORB AND LIFT THE REMNANTS OF
THE COASTAL LOW NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL FIELDS
ARE SHOWING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /1000-2000 MUCAPE/ TO EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT LEAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER... SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK...
AND SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
THIS COULD CHANGE... SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECAST.

39


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILLPERSIST THROUGH THETAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS. NO WEATHER
EXPECTED AT TAF SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  57  83  60 /   5   0  10  10
ATLANTA         82  57  83  63 /   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     79  55  80  54 /  20   5  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    82  54  83  58 /   5   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        84  59  85  61 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     81  58  82  61 /   5   5  10  10
MACON           82  57  83  59 /   5   5  10   5
ROME            84  54  84  57 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  82  56  83  58 /   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         83  61  82  62 /   0   5  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
AVIATION...ATWELL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 060549
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
149 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

UPDATE...
FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS
THE REGION. NO MAJOR GRID UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD... EVEN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION... EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. INCREASED ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GA MOUNTAINS DUE TO UPSLOPING FLOW BUT NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THAT AREA BUT NOTHING MAJOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THINGS
SUBDUED. AS FAR AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM GOES...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THE MAIN LOW CENTER WHICH IS NOW JUST SE OF SOUTHERN FL
DEEPENING AND MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY 18Z WED
IT SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE FL COAST DUE EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH. IT
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z THU TO JUST OF
THE GA/SC COAST. AFTER THIS THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO THE
EXTENDED. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT
STRAY TOO FAR.

01

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIAL CONCERN IS THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY... THAT
MEANDERS NORTHWARD OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS ON
THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLY DRIFTING SLIGHTLY INLAND OVER PARTS
OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY... AND MEANDERING
IN THAT AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THE SURFACE LOW DOES DRIFT
INLAND... A WEAKENING TREND WOULD BE EXPECTED. BOTH MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION BY MONDAY...
AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ABSORB AND LIFT THE REMNANTS OF
THE COASTAL LOW NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL FIELDS
ARE SHOWING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /1000-2000 MUCAPE/ TO EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT LEAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER... SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK...
AND SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
THIS COULD CHANGE... SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECAST.

39


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILLPERSIST THROUGH THETAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS. NO WEATHER
EXPECTED AT TAF SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  57  83  60 /   5   0  10  10
ATLANTA         82  57  83  63 /   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     79  55  80  54 /  20   5  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    82  54  83  58 /   5   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        84  59  85  61 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     81  58  82  61 /   5   5  10  10
MACON           82  57  83  59 /   5   5  10   5
ROME            84  54  84  57 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  82  56  83  58 /   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         83  61  82  62 /   0   5  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
AVIATION...ATWELL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 060549
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
149 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

UPDATE...
FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS
THE REGION. NO MAJOR GRID UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD... EVEN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION... EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. INCREASED ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GA MOUNTAINS DUE TO UPSLOPING FLOW BUT NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THAT AREA BUT NOTHING MAJOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THINGS
SUBDUED. AS FAR AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM GOES...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THE MAIN LOW CENTER WHICH IS NOW JUST SE OF SOUTHERN FL
DEEPENING AND MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY 18Z WED
IT SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE FL COAST DUE EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH. IT
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z THU TO JUST OF
THE GA/SC COAST. AFTER THIS THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO THE
EXTENDED. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT
STRAY TOO FAR.

01

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIAL CONCERN IS THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY... THAT
MEANDERS NORTHWARD OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS ON
THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLY DRIFTING SLIGHTLY INLAND OVER PARTS
OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY... AND MEANDERING
IN THAT AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THE SURFACE LOW DOES DRIFT
INLAND... A WEAKENING TREND WOULD BE EXPECTED. BOTH MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION BY MONDAY...
AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ABSORB AND LIFT THE REMNANTS OF
THE COASTAL LOW NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL FIELDS
ARE SHOWING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /1000-2000 MUCAPE/ TO EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT LEAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER... SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK...
AND SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
THIS COULD CHANGE... SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECAST.

39


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILLPERSIST THROUGH THETAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS. NO WEATHER
EXPECTED AT TAF SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  57  83  60 /   5   0  10  10
ATLANTA         82  57  83  63 /   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     79  55  80  54 /  20   5  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    82  54  83  58 /   5   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        84  59  85  61 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     81  58  82  61 /   5   5  10  10
MACON           82  57  83  59 /   5   5  10   5
ROME            84  54  84  57 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  82  56  83  58 /   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         83  61  82  62 /   0   5  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
AVIATION...ATWELL




000
FXUS62 KCAE 060546
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
146 AM EDT WED MAY  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM COULD BEGIN
TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
OVERSPREADING THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GA. MODELS DEPICT A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NAM GUIDANCE AS THE MERCURY DROPS
INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCENARIO WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE DISORGANIZED
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF FL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHWARD. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW CREEPING NORTHWARD
OFFSHORE OF THE MELBOURNE FL AREA. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA.
WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE MID LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
JUST INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TO THE WATERS OFF THE
GA COAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WILL SEE
CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK
THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN
MIDLANDS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADJUST TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE LOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINING LOWER THAN DESIRED. HAVE TRENDED THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE GFS AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
GOOD. THIS WILL HAVE THE LOW OFF THE SC COAST THURSDAY AND NEAR
THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEAK WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTING A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHERE MODELS SHOW SOME SUBSIDENCE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAIN LOW AS BEST
MOISTURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONTINUE. COASTAL
LOW EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL EJECT THE LOW FROM THE AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH FROPA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM OFF THE NC COAST WILL
WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND DRIFTS
NORTH. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT SOME SCT DAYTIME CU TO DEVELOP AROUND 5000 FT
AFTER 16Z.

THE HIGH CLOUDS AND A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND SHOULD INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE VARIABLE VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIVER FOG AT AGS IN THE 07Z-11Z TIME-FRAME.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL STATES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 060546
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
146 AM EDT WED MAY  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM COULD BEGIN
TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
OVERSPREADING THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GA. MODELS DEPICT A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NAM GUIDANCE AS THE MERCURY DROPS
INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCENARIO WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE DISORGANIZED
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF FL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHWARD. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW CREEPING NORTHWARD
OFFSHORE OF THE MELBOURNE FL AREA. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA.
WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE MID LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
JUST INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TO THE WATERS OFF THE
GA COAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WILL SEE
CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK
THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN
MIDLANDS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADJUST TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE LOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINING LOWER THAN DESIRED. HAVE TRENDED THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE GFS AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
GOOD. THIS WILL HAVE THE LOW OFF THE SC COAST THURSDAY AND NEAR
THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEAK WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTING A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHERE MODELS SHOW SOME SUBSIDENCE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAIN LOW AS BEST
MOISTURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONTINUE. COASTAL
LOW EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL EJECT THE LOW FROM THE AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH FROPA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM OFF THE NC COAST WILL
WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND DRIFTS
NORTH. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT SOME SCT DAYTIME CU TO DEVELOP AROUND 5000 FT
AFTER 16Z.

THE HIGH CLOUDS AND A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND SHOULD INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE VARIABLE VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIVER FOG AT AGS IN THE 07Z-11Z TIME-FRAME.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL STATES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 060500
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
100 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH BACK TO
THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LOW
WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE. WE LOWERED
SOME HOURLY TEMPS FROM ALLENDALE OVER TO ABOUT WALTERBORO. OTHER
THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE CLOSER TO THE WEST WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THE 06/00Z RAOBS
FROM KCHS/KJAX WERE VERY DRY WITH PWATS BELOW 1 INCH SO ANY
SHOWERS THAT WERE TO APPROACH THE GEORGIA COAST WOULD LIKELY
DISSIPATE PRIOR TO MOVING ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A CUT OFF UPPER LOW
WILL SIT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE
WELL OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH. PRIMARILY CIRRUS
WILL BE SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THOUGH LATER IN THE DAY THE MODEL LAYER RH FIELDS INDICATE
SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING INTO COASTAL AREAS. QUITE A
BIT OF DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGIME WEDNESDAY WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BE ENHANCED BY A ROBUST SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON...COOLING
COASTAL LOCALES. INLAND SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S WHILE CLOSER TO
THE COAST THE HIGH TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTH TOWARD SOUTHEAST NC. THE 12Z ECMWF CAME INTO LINE MUCH CLOSER
TO THE 12Z GFS...WITH A CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH TO A
POSITION DUE EAST OF MYRTLE BEACH BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS INLAND AREAS...SUCH A TRACK WOULD MINIMIZE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. WE
ADJUSTED OUR POPS TO SHOW 20-30 PERCENT OVER EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. A FARTHER WEST TRACK WOULD CERTAINLY
DICTATE AN INCREASE IN POPS...THOUGH IT IS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY RAIN FREE IF THE SYSTEM STAYS FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE.

TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE MODERATED BY SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD
COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH...THOUGH MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE MAY COUNTER THOSE SOMEWHAT. WE ARE SHOWING LOWER 80S WEST
AND UPPER 70S EAST.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATES A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HOWEVER... IF
THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THAT CURRENTLY FORECAST
THE LOCAL IMPACTS WOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR...REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR
NOT IT BECOMES TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE CLOSER TO
THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR IMPACTS
SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH SURF.

THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR TEMPERATURES
AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS...BASED ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...SEAS AT 41008 AND THE ST. MARYS BUOY ARE RUNNING
CLOSER TO 5 FT...A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. INITIALIZED WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SEAS 4-6
FT.

MARINE WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FL COAST. THE LATEST CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW NE
WINDS WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT...THEN SHIFTING TO N AND THEN
NNW LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 6+ FT
OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST AT
OR ABOVE 6 FT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DROP AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE OFFSHORE AND THE FETCH DIMINISHES. WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS BEGINNING
AT 12Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ADVISORIES ARE
LIKELY FOR OTHER WATERS AT SOME POINT ONCE THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND
LIFTS NORTH.

ALSO OF NOTE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT SOME POINT LATER THIS WEEK. IF THIS
HAPPENS...FORECAST WINDS/SEAS WOULD LIKELY INCREASE.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GA COAST
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME 1-2 FT SWELL
EVERY 8 SEC. RIP CURRENT RISK LIKELY TO INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN ABOVE
NORMAL TIDES ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST TIDES ARE 5.9 FT MLLW IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR WED AND THU EVENINGS. THE NNE WINDS WILL PUSH
TIDES ABOVE THAT LEVEL...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH
SURGE TO PUSH THAT TO 7.0 FT ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WE COULD
APPROACH 7.0 FT IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WHICH IS COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS62 KCHS 060500
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
100 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH BACK TO
THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LOW
WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE. WE LOWERED
SOME HOURLY TEMPS FROM ALLENDALE OVER TO ABOUT WALTERBORO. OTHER
THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE CLOSER TO THE WEST WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THE 06/00Z RAOBS
FROM KCHS/KJAX WERE VERY DRY WITH PWATS BELOW 1 INCH SO ANY
SHOWERS THAT WERE TO APPROACH THE GEORGIA COAST WOULD LIKELY
DISSIPATE PRIOR TO MOVING ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A CUT OFF UPPER LOW
WILL SIT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE
WELL OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH. PRIMARILY CIRRUS
WILL BE SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THOUGH LATER IN THE DAY THE MODEL LAYER RH FIELDS INDICATE
SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING INTO COASTAL AREAS. QUITE A
BIT OF DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGIME WEDNESDAY WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BE ENHANCED BY A ROBUST SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON...COOLING
COASTAL LOCALES. INLAND SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S WHILE CLOSER TO
THE COAST THE HIGH TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTH TOWARD SOUTHEAST NC. THE 12Z ECMWF CAME INTO LINE MUCH CLOSER
TO THE 12Z GFS...WITH A CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH TO A
POSITION DUE EAST OF MYRTLE BEACH BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS INLAND AREAS...SUCH A TRACK WOULD MINIMIZE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. WE
ADJUSTED OUR POPS TO SHOW 20-30 PERCENT OVER EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. A FARTHER WEST TRACK WOULD CERTAINLY
DICTATE AN INCREASE IN POPS...THOUGH IT IS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY RAIN FREE IF THE SYSTEM STAYS FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE.

TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE MODERATED BY SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD
COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH...THOUGH MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE MAY COUNTER THOSE SOMEWHAT. WE ARE SHOWING LOWER 80S WEST
AND UPPER 70S EAST.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATES A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HOWEVER... IF
THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THAT CURRENTLY FORECAST
THE LOCAL IMPACTS WOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR...REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR
NOT IT BECOMES TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE CLOSER TO
THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR IMPACTS
SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH SURF.

THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR TEMPERATURES
AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS...BASED ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...SEAS AT 41008 AND THE ST. MARYS BUOY ARE RUNNING
CLOSER TO 5 FT...A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. INITIALIZED WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SEAS 4-6
FT.

MARINE WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FL COAST. THE LATEST CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW NE
WINDS WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT...THEN SHIFTING TO N AND THEN
NNW LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 6+ FT
OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST AT
OR ABOVE 6 FT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DROP AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE OFFSHORE AND THE FETCH DIMINISHES. WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS BEGINNING
AT 12Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ADVISORIES ARE
LIKELY FOR OTHER WATERS AT SOME POINT ONCE THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND
LIFTS NORTH.

ALSO OF NOTE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT SOME POINT LATER THIS WEEK. IF THIS
HAPPENS...FORECAST WINDS/SEAS WOULD LIKELY INCREASE.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GA COAST
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME 1-2 FT SWELL
EVERY 8 SEC. RIP CURRENT RISK LIKELY TO INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN ABOVE
NORMAL TIDES ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST TIDES ARE 5.9 FT MLLW IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR WED AND THU EVENINGS. THE NNE WINDS WILL PUSH
TIDES ABOVE THAT LEVEL...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH
SURGE TO PUSH THAT TO 7.0 FT ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WE COULD
APPROACH 7.0 FT IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WHICH IS COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 060318
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1118 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM COULD BEGIN
TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
OVERSPREADING THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GA. MODELS DEPICT A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NAM GUIDANCE AS THE MERCURY DROPS
INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCENARIO WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE DISORGANIZED
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF FL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHWARD. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW CREEPING NORTHWARD
OFFSHORE OF THE MELBOURNE FL AREA. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA.
WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE MID LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
JUST INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TO THE WATERS OFF THE
GA COAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WILL SEE
CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK
THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN
MIDLANDS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADJUST TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE LOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINING LOWER THAN DESIRED. HAVE TRENDED THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE GFS AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
GOOD. THIS WILL HAVE THE LOW OFF THE SC COAST THURSDAY AND NEAR
THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEAK WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTING A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHERE MODELS SHOW SOME SUBSIDENCE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAIN LOW AS BEST
MOISTURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONTINUE. COASTAL
LOW EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL EJECT THE LOW FROM THE AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH FROPA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SAT IMAGES SHOW HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. THE HIGH CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WIND SHOULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.
IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE VARIABLE VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIVER
FOG AT AGS IN THE 08Z-11Z TIME-FRAME.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10KTS
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY.

HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SCT
DAYTIME CU AROUND 5000 FT AFTER 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 060318
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1118 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM COULD BEGIN
TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
OVERSPREADING THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GA. MODELS DEPICT A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NAM GUIDANCE AS THE MERCURY DROPS
INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCENARIO WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE DISORGANIZED
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF FL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHWARD. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW CREEPING NORTHWARD
OFFSHORE OF THE MELBOURNE FL AREA. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA.
WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE MID LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
JUST INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TO THE WATERS OFF THE
GA COAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WILL SEE
CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK
THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN
MIDLANDS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADJUST TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE LOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINING LOWER THAN DESIRED. HAVE TRENDED THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE GFS AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
GOOD. THIS WILL HAVE THE LOW OFF THE SC COAST THURSDAY AND NEAR
THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEAK WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTING A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHERE MODELS SHOW SOME SUBSIDENCE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAIN LOW AS BEST
MOISTURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONTINUE. COASTAL
LOW EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL EJECT THE LOW FROM THE AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH FROPA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SAT IMAGES SHOW HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. THE HIGH CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WIND SHOULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.
IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE VARIABLE VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIVER
FOG AT AGS IN THE 08Z-11Z TIME-FRAME.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10KTS
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY.

HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SCT
DAYTIME CU AROUND 5000 FT AFTER 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 060249
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1049 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015


.UPDATE...
FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS
THE REGION. NO MAJOR GRID UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD... EVEN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION... EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. INCREASED ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GA MOUNTAINS DUE TO UPSLOPING FLOW BUT NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THAT AREA BUT NOTHING MAJOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THINGS
SUBDUED. AS FAR AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM GOES...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THE MAIN LOW CENTER WHICH IS NOW JUST SE OF SOUTHERN FL
DEEPENING AND MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY 18Z WED
IT SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE FL COAST DUE EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH. IT
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z THU TO JUST OF
THE GA/SC COAST. AFTER THIS THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO THE
EXTENDED. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT
STRAY TOO FAR.

01

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIAL CONCERN IS THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY... THAT
MEANDERS NORTHWARD OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS ON
THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLY DRIFTING SLIGHTLY INLAND OVER PARTS
OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY... AND MEANDERING
IN THAT AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THE SURFACE LOW DOES DRIFT
INLAND... A WEAKENING TREND WOULD BE EXPECTED. BOTH MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION BY MONDAY...
AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ABSORB AND LIFT THE REMNANTS OF
THE COASTAL LOW NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL FIELDS
ARE SHOWING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /1000-2000 MUCAPE/ TO EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT LEAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER... SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK...
AND SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
THIS COULD CHANGE... SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECAST.

39

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE IN CONTROL. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SEEN AGAIN TOMORROW BUT NO CEILING OR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  83  57  83 /   5   5   0  10
ATLANTA         58  82  57  83 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     51  79  55  80 /  20  20   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    55  82  54  83 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        57  84  59  85 /   0   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     56  81  58  82 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           54  82  57  83 /   0   5   5  10
ROME            54  84  54  84 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  82  56  83 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         59  83  61  82 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 060143
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
943 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH BACK TO
THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LOW
WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. CC
PRODUCTS FROM KCLX CONFIRM RETURNS ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST ARE
MAINLY CHAFF. OTHER THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
CLOSER TO THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. THE 06/00Z RAOBS FROM KCHS/KJAX WERE VERY DRY WITH PWATS
BELOW 1 INCH SO ANY SHOWERS THAT WERE TO APPROACH THE GEORGIA
COAST WOULD LIKELY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO MOVING ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A CUT OFF UPPER LOW
WILL SIT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE
WELL OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH. PRIMARILY CIRRUS
WILL BE SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THOUGH LATER IN THE DAY THE MODEL LAYER RH FIELDS INDICATE
SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING INTO COASTAL AREAS. QUITE A
BIT OF DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGIME WEDNESDAY WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BE ENHANCED BY A ROBUST SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON...COOLING
COASTAL LOCALES. INLAND SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S WHILE CLOSER TO
THE COAST THE HIGH TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTH TOWARD SOUTHEAST NC. THE 12Z ECMWF CAME INTO LINE MUCH CLOSER
TO THE 12Z GFS...WITH A CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH TO A
POSITION DUE EAST OF MYRTLE BEACH BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS INLAND AREAS...SUCH A TRACK WOULD MINIMIZE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. WE
ADJUSTED OUR POPS TO SHOW 20-30 PERCENT OVER EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. A FARTHER WEST TRACK WOULD CERTAINLY
DICTATE AN INCREASE IN POPS...THOUGH IT IS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY RAIN FREE IF THE SYSTEM STAYS FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE.

TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE MODERATED BY SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD
COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH...THOUGH MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE MAY COUNTER THOSE SOMEWHAT. WE ARE SHOWING LOWER 80S WEST
AND UPPER 70S EAST.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATES A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HOWEVER... IF
THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THAT CURRENTLY FORECAST
THE LOCAL IMPACTS WOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR...REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR
NOT IT BECOMES TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE CLOSER TO
THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR IMPACTS
SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH SURF.

THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR TEMPERATURES
AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS...BASED ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SEAS AT 41008 AND THE ST. MARYS BUOY ARE RUNNING 5
FT...A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. INITIALIZED WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SEAS 5-6 FT.

MARINE WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FL COAST. THE LATEST CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW NE
WINDS WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT...THEN SHIFTING TO N AND THEN
NNW LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 6+ FT
OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST AT
OR ABOVE 6 FT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DROP AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE OFFSHORE AND THE FETCH DIMINISHES. WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS BEGINNING
AT 12Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ADVISORIES ARE
LIKELY FOR OTHER WATERS AT SOME POINT ONCE THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND
LIFTS NORTH.

ALSO OF NOTE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT SOME POINT LATER THIS WEEK. IF THIS
HAPPENS...FORECAST WINDS/SEAS WOULD LIKELY INCREASE.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GA COAST
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME 1-2 FT SWELL
EVERY 8 SEC. RIP CURRENT RISK LIKELY TO INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN ABOVE
NORMAL TIDES ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST TIDES ARE 5.9 FT MLLW IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR WED AND THU EVENINGS. THE NNE WINDS WILL PUSH
TIDES ABOVE THAT LEVEL...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH
SURGE TO PUSH THAT TO 7.0 FT ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WE COULD
APPROACH 7.0 FT IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WHICH IS COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 060143
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
943 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH BACK TO
THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LOW
WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. CC
PRODUCTS FROM KCLX CONFIRM RETURNS ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST ARE
MAINLY CHAFF. OTHER THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
CLOSER TO THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. THE 06/00Z RAOBS FROM KCHS/KJAX WERE VERY DRY WITH PWATS
BELOW 1 INCH SO ANY SHOWERS THAT WERE TO APPROACH THE GEORGIA
COAST WOULD LIKELY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO MOVING ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A CUT OFF UPPER LOW
WILL SIT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE
WELL OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH. PRIMARILY CIRRUS
WILL BE SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THOUGH LATER IN THE DAY THE MODEL LAYER RH FIELDS INDICATE
SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING INTO COASTAL AREAS. QUITE A
BIT OF DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGIME WEDNESDAY WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BE ENHANCED BY A ROBUST SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON...COOLING
COASTAL LOCALES. INLAND SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S WHILE CLOSER TO
THE COAST THE HIGH TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTH TOWARD SOUTHEAST NC. THE 12Z ECMWF CAME INTO LINE MUCH CLOSER
TO THE 12Z GFS...WITH A CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH TO A
POSITION DUE EAST OF MYRTLE BEACH BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS INLAND AREAS...SUCH A TRACK WOULD MINIMIZE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. WE
ADJUSTED OUR POPS TO SHOW 20-30 PERCENT OVER EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. A FARTHER WEST TRACK WOULD CERTAINLY
DICTATE AN INCREASE IN POPS...THOUGH IT IS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY RAIN FREE IF THE SYSTEM STAYS FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE.

TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE MODERATED BY SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD
COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH...THOUGH MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE MAY COUNTER THOSE SOMEWHAT. WE ARE SHOWING LOWER 80S WEST
AND UPPER 70S EAST.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATES A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HOWEVER... IF
THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THAT CURRENTLY FORECAST
THE LOCAL IMPACTS WOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR...REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR
NOT IT BECOMES TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE CLOSER TO
THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR IMPACTS
SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH SURF.

THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR TEMPERATURES
AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS...BASED ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SEAS AT 41008 AND THE ST. MARYS BUOY ARE RUNNING 5
FT...A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. INITIALIZED WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SEAS 5-6 FT.

MARINE WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FL COAST. THE LATEST CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW NE
WINDS WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT...THEN SHIFTING TO N AND THEN
NNW LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 6+ FT
OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST AT
OR ABOVE 6 FT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DROP AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE OFFSHORE AND THE FETCH DIMINISHES. WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS BEGINNING
AT 12Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ADVISORIES ARE
LIKELY FOR OTHER WATERS AT SOME POINT ONCE THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND
LIFTS NORTH.

ALSO OF NOTE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT SOME POINT LATER THIS WEEK. IF THIS
HAPPENS...FORECAST WINDS/SEAS WOULD LIKELY INCREASE.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GA COAST
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME 1-2 FT SWELL
EVERY 8 SEC. RIP CURRENT RISK LIKELY TO INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN ABOVE
NORMAL TIDES ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST TIDES ARE 5.9 FT MLLW IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR WED AND THU EVENINGS. THE NNE WINDS WILL PUSH
TIDES ABOVE THAT LEVEL...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH
SURGE TO PUSH THAT TO 7.0 FT ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WE COULD
APPROACH 7.0 FT IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WHICH IS COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 060143
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
943 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH BACK TO
THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LOW
WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. CC
PRODUCTS FROM KCLX CONFIRM RETURNS ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST ARE
MAINLY CHAFF. OTHER THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
CLOSER TO THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. THE 06/00Z RAOBS FROM KCHS/KJAX WERE VERY DRY WITH PWATS
BELOW 1 INCH SO ANY SHOWERS THAT WERE TO APPROACH THE GEORGIA
COAST WOULD LIKELY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO MOVING ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A CUT OFF UPPER LOW
WILL SIT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE
WELL OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH. PRIMARILY CIRRUS
WILL BE SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THOUGH LATER IN THE DAY THE MODEL LAYER RH FIELDS INDICATE
SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING INTO COASTAL AREAS. QUITE A
BIT OF DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGIME WEDNESDAY WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BE ENHANCED BY A ROBUST SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON...COOLING
COASTAL LOCALES. INLAND SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S WHILE CLOSER TO
THE COAST THE HIGH TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTH TOWARD SOUTHEAST NC. THE 12Z ECMWF CAME INTO LINE MUCH CLOSER
TO THE 12Z GFS...WITH A CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH TO A
POSITION DUE EAST OF MYRTLE BEACH BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS INLAND AREAS...SUCH A TRACK WOULD MINIMIZE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. WE
ADJUSTED OUR POPS TO SHOW 20-30 PERCENT OVER EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. A FARTHER WEST TRACK WOULD CERTAINLY
DICTATE AN INCREASE IN POPS...THOUGH IT IS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY RAIN FREE IF THE SYSTEM STAYS FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE.

TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE MODERATED BY SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD
COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH...THOUGH MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE MAY COUNTER THOSE SOMEWHAT. WE ARE SHOWING LOWER 80S WEST
AND UPPER 70S EAST.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATES A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HOWEVER... IF
THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THAT CURRENTLY FORECAST
THE LOCAL IMPACTS WOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR...REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR
NOT IT BECOMES TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE CLOSER TO
THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR IMPACTS
SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH SURF.

THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR TEMPERATURES
AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS...BASED ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SEAS AT 41008 AND THE ST. MARYS BUOY ARE RUNNING 5
FT...A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. INITIALIZED WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SEAS 5-6 FT.

MARINE WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FL COAST. THE LATEST CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW NE
WINDS WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT...THEN SHIFTING TO N AND THEN
NNW LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 6+ FT
OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST AT
OR ABOVE 6 FT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DROP AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE OFFSHORE AND THE FETCH DIMINISHES. WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS BEGINNING
AT 12Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ADVISORIES ARE
LIKELY FOR OTHER WATERS AT SOME POINT ONCE THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND
LIFTS NORTH.

ALSO OF NOTE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT SOME POINT LATER THIS WEEK. IF THIS
HAPPENS...FORECAST WINDS/SEAS WOULD LIKELY INCREASE.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GA COAST
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME 1-2 FT SWELL
EVERY 8 SEC. RIP CURRENT RISK LIKELY TO INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN ABOVE
NORMAL TIDES ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST TIDES ARE 5.9 FT MLLW IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR WED AND THU EVENINGS. THE NNE WINDS WILL PUSH
TIDES ABOVE THAT LEVEL...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH
SURGE TO PUSH THAT TO 7.0 FT ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WE COULD
APPROACH 7.0 FT IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WHICH IS COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KFFC 060001
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
801 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD... EVEN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION... EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. INCREASED ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GA MOUNTAINS DUE TO UPSLOPING FLOW BUT NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THAT AREA BUT NOTHING MAJOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THINGS
SUBDUED. AS FAR AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM GOES...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THE MAIN LOW CENTER WHICH IS NOW JUST SE OF SOUTHERN FL
DEEPENING AND MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY 18Z WED
IT SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE FL COAST DUE EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH. IT
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z THU TO JUST OF
THE GA/SC COAST. AFTER THIS THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO THE
EXTENDED. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT
STRAY TOO FAR.

01

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIAL CONCERN IS THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY... THAT
MEANDERS NORTHWARD OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS ON
THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLY DRIFTING SLIGHTLY INLAND OVER PARTS
OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY... AND MEANDERING
IN THAT AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THE SURFACE LOW DOES DRIFT
INLAND... A WEAKENING TREND WOULD BE EXPECTED. BOTH MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION BY MONDAY...
AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ABSORB AND LIFT THE REMNANTS OF
THE COASTAL LOW NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL FIELDS
ARE SHOWING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /1000-2000 MUCAPE/ TO EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT LEAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER... SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK...
AND SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
THIS COULD CHANGE... SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECAST.

39


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE IN CONTROL. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SEEN AGAIN TOMORROW BUT NO CEILING OR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  83  57  83 /   5   5   0  10
ATLANTA         58  82  57  83 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     51  79  55  80 /  20  20   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    55  82  54  83 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        57  84  59  85 /   0   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     56  81  58  82 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           54  82  57  83 /   0   5   5  10
ROME            54  84  54  84 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  82  56  83 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         59  83  61  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
AVIATION...RW



000
FXUS62 KFFC 060001
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
801 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD... EVEN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION... EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. INCREASED ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GA MOUNTAINS DUE TO UPSLOPING FLOW BUT NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THAT AREA BUT NOTHING MAJOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THINGS
SUBDUED. AS FAR AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM GOES...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THE MAIN LOW CENTER WHICH IS NOW JUST SE OF SOUTHERN FL
DEEPENING AND MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY 18Z WED
IT SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE FL COAST DUE EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH. IT
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z THU TO JUST OF
THE GA/SC COAST. AFTER THIS THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO THE
EXTENDED. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT
STRAY TOO FAR.

01

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIAL CONCERN IS THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY... THAT
MEANDERS NORTHWARD OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS ON
THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLY DRIFTING SLIGHTLY INLAND OVER PARTS
OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY... AND MEANDERING
IN THAT AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THE SURFACE LOW DOES DRIFT
INLAND... A WEAKENING TREND WOULD BE EXPECTED. BOTH MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION BY MONDAY...
AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ABSORB AND LIFT THE REMNANTS OF
THE COASTAL LOW NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL FIELDS
ARE SHOWING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /1000-2000 MUCAPE/ TO EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT LEAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER... SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK...
AND SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
THIS COULD CHANGE... SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECAST.

39


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE IN CONTROL. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SEEN AGAIN TOMORROW BUT NO CEILING OR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  83  57  83 /   5   5   0  10
ATLANTA         58  82  57  83 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     51  79  55  80 /  20  20   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    55  82  54  83 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        57  84  59  85 /   0   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     56  81  58  82 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           54  82  57  83 /   0   5   5  10
ROME            54  84  54  84 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  82  56  83 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         59  83  61  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 060001
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
801 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD... EVEN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION... EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. INCREASED ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GA MOUNTAINS DUE TO UPSLOPING FLOW BUT NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THAT AREA BUT NOTHING MAJOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THINGS
SUBDUED. AS FAR AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM GOES...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THE MAIN LOW CENTER WHICH IS NOW JUST SE OF SOUTHERN FL
DEEPENING AND MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY 18Z WED
IT SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE FL COAST DUE EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH. IT
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z THU TO JUST OF
THE GA/SC COAST. AFTER THIS THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO THE
EXTENDED. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT
STRAY TOO FAR.

01

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIAL CONCERN IS THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY... THAT
MEANDERS NORTHWARD OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS ON
THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLY DRIFTING SLIGHTLY INLAND OVER PARTS
OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY... AND MEANDERING
IN THAT AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THE SURFACE LOW DOES DRIFT
INLAND... A WEAKENING TREND WOULD BE EXPECTED. BOTH MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION BY MONDAY...
AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ABSORB AND LIFT THE REMNANTS OF
THE COASTAL LOW NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL FIELDS
ARE SHOWING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /1000-2000 MUCAPE/ TO EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT LEAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER... SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK...
AND SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
THIS COULD CHANGE... SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECAST.

39


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE IN CONTROL. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SEEN AGAIN TOMORROW BUT NO CEILING OR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  83  57  83 /   5   5   0  10
ATLANTA         58  82  57  83 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     51  79  55  80 /  20  20   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    55  82  54  83 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        57  84  59  85 /   0   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     56  81  58  82 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           54  82  57  83 /   0   5   5  10
ROME            54  84  54  84 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  82  56  83 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         59  83  61  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
AVIATION...RW



000
FXUS62 KFFC 060001
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
801 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD... EVEN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION... EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. INCREASED ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GA MOUNTAINS DUE TO UPSLOPING FLOW BUT NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THAT AREA BUT NOTHING MAJOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THINGS
SUBDUED. AS FAR AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM GOES...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THE MAIN LOW CENTER WHICH IS NOW JUST SE OF SOUTHERN FL
DEEPENING AND MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY 18Z WED
IT SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE FL COAST DUE EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH. IT
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z THU TO JUST OF
THE GA/SC COAST. AFTER THIS THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO THE
EXTENDED. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT
STRAY TOO FAR.

01

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIAL CONCERN IS THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY... THAT
MEANDERS NORTHWARD OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS ON
THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLY DRIFTING SLIGHTLY INLAND OVER PARTS
OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY... AND MEANDERING
IN THAT AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THE SURFACE LOW DOES DRIFT
INLAND... A WEAKENING TREND WOULD BE EXPECTED. BOTH MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION BY MONDAY...
AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ABSORB AND LIFT THE REMNANTS OF
THE COASTAL LOW NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL FIELDS
ARE SHOWING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /1000-2000 MUCAPE/ TO EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT LEAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER... SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK...
AND SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
THIS COULD CHANGE... SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECAST.

39


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE IN CONTROL. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SEEN AGAIN TOMORROW BUT NO CEILING OR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  83  57  83 /   5   5   0  10
ATLANTA         58  82  57  83 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     51  79  55  80 /  20  20   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    55  82  54  83 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        57  84  59  85 /   0   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     56  81  58  82 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           54  82  57  83 /   0   5   5  10
ROME            54  84  54  84 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  82  56  83 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         59  83  61  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KCAE 052340
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
740 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
TOMORROW AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATPIX SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NAM GUIDANCE AS THE
MERCURY DROPS INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCENARIO WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE DISORGANIZED
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF FL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHWARD. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW CREEPING NORTHWARD
OFFSHORE OF THE MELBOURNE FL AREA. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA.
WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE MID LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
JUST INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TO THE WATERS OFF THE
GA COAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WILL SEE
CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK
THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN
MIDLANDS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADJUST TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE LOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINING LOWER THAN DESIRED. HAVE TRENDED THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE GFS AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
GOOD. THIS WILL HAVE THE LOW OFF THE SC COAST THURSDAY AND NEAR
THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEAK WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTING A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHERE MODELS SHOW SOME SUBSIDENCE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAIN LOW AS BEST
MOISTURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONTINUE. COASTAL
LOW EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL EJECT THE LOW FROM THE AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH FROPA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

SAT IMAGES SHOW HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS MOVING TOWARD CENTAL SC FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE
HIGH CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WIND SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME VARIABLE VISBYS
ASSOCIATED WITHT THE RIVER FOG AT AGS BUT DO NOT THINK THIS
CONDITION IS LIKELY ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10KTS
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOME SCT DAYTIME CU AROUND 5K FT AFTER 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 052340
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
740 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
TOMORROW AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATPIX SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NAM GUIDANCE AS THE
MERCURY DROPS INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCENARIO WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE DISORGANIZED
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF FL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHWARD. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW CREEPING NORTHWARD
OFFSHORE OF THE MELBOURNE FL AREA. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA.
WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE MID LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
JUST INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TO THE WATERS OFF THE
GA COAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WILL SEE
CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK
THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN
MIDLANDS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADJUST TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE LOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINING LOWER THAN DESIRED. HAVE TRENDED THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE GFS AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
GOOD. THIS WILL HAVE THE LOW OFF THE SC COAST THURSDAY AND NEAR
THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEAK WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTING A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHERE MODELS SHOW SOME SUBSIDENCE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAIN LOW AS BEST
MOISTURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONTINUE. COASTAL
LOW EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL EJECT THE LOW FROM THE AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH FROPA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

SAT IMAGES SHOW HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS MOVING TOWARD CENTAL SC FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE
HIGH CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WIND SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME VARIABLE VISBYS
ASSOCIATED WITHT THE RIVER FOG AT AGS BUT DO NOT THINK THIS
CONDITION IS LIKELY ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10KTS
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOME SCT DAYTIME CU AROUND 5K FT AFTER 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 052340
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
740 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
TOMORROW AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATPIX SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NAM GUIDANCE AS THE
MERCURY DROPS INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCENARIO WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE DISORGANIZED
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF FL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHWARD. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW CREEPING NORTHWARD
OFFSHORE OF THE MELBOURNE FL AREA. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA.
WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE MID LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
JUST INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TO THE WATERS OFF THE
GA COAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WILL SEE
CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK
THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN
MIDLANDS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADJUST TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE LOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINING LOWER THAN DESIRED. HAVE TRENDED THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE GFS AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
GOOD. THIS WILL HAVE THE LOW OFF THE SC COAST THURSDAY AND NEAR
THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEAK WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTING A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHERE MODELS SHOW SOME SUBSIDENCE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAIN LOW AS BEST
MOISTURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONTINUE. COASTAL
LOW EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL EJECT THE LOW FROM THE AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH FROPA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

SAT IMAGES SHOW HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS MOVING TOWARD CENTAL SC FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE
HIGH CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WIND SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME VARIABLE VISBYS
ASSOCIATED WITHT THE RIVER FOG AT AGS BUT DO NOT THINK THIS
CONDITION IS LIKELY ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10KTS
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOME SCT DAYTIME CU AROUND 5K FT AFTER 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 052340
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
740 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
TOMORROW AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATPIX SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NAM GUIDANCE AS THE
MERCURY DROPS INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCENARIO WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE DISORGANIZED
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF FL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHWARD. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW CREEPING NORTHWARD
OFFSHORE OF THE MELBOURNE FL AREA. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA.
WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE MID LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
JUST INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TO THE WATERS OFF THE
GA COAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WILL SEE
CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK
THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN
MIDLANDS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADJUST TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE LOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINING LOWER THAN DESIRED. HAVE TRENDED THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE GFS AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
GOOD. THIS WILL HAVE THE LOW OFF THE SC COAST THURSDAY AND NEAR
THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEAK WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTING A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHERE MODELS SHOW SOME SUBSIDENCE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAIN LOW AS BEST
MOISTURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONTINUE. COASTAL
LOW EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL EJECT THE LOW FROM THE AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH FROPA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

SAT IMAGES SHOW HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS MOVING TOWARD CENTAL SC FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE
HIGH CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WIND SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME VARIABLE VISBYS
ASSOCIATED WITHT THE RIVER FOG AT AGS BUT DO NOT THINK THIS
CONDITION IS LIKELY ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10KTS
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOME SCT DAYTIME CU AROUND 5K FT AFTER 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCHS 052302
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
702 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH BACK TO
THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LOW
WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. OFFSHORE
RETURNS PINNED BY THE KCLX RADAR ARE LIKELY CHAFF PER DUAL-POL
DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR
THE BAHAMAS TRIES TO ORGANIZE. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL
AFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATE...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW AND SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM EAST NORTHEAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS EARLY
WILL DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAKEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A CUT OFF UPPER LOW
WILL SIT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE
WELL OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH. PRIMARILY CIRRUS
WILL BE SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THOUGH LATER IN THE DAY THE MODEL LAYER RH FIELDS INDICATE
SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING INTO COASTAL AREAS. QUITE A
BIT OF DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGIME WEDNESDAY WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BE ENHANCED BY A ROBUST SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON...COOLING
COASTAL LOCALES. INLAND SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S WHILE CLOSER TO
THE COAST THE HIGH TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTH TOWARD SOUTHEAST NC. THE 12Z ECMWF CAME INTO LINE MUCH CLOSER
TO THE 12Z GFS...WITH A CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH TO A
POSITION DUE EAST OF MYRTLE BEACH BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS INLAND AREAS...SUCH A TRACK WOULD MINIMIZE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. WE
ADJUSTED OUR POPS TO SHOW 20-30 PERCENT OVER EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. A FARTHER WEST TRACK WOULD CERTAINLY
DICTATE AN INCREASE IN POPS...THOUGH IT IS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY RAIN FREE IF THE SYSTEM STAYS FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE.

TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE MODERATED BY SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD
COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH...THOUGH MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE MAY COUNTER THOSE SOMEWHAT. WE ARE SHOWING LOWER 80S WEST
AND UPPER 70S EAST.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATES A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HOWEVER... IF
THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THAT CURRENTLY FORECAST
THE LOCAL IMPACTS WOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR...REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR
NOT IT BECOMES TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE CLOSER TO
THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR IMPACTS
SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH SURF.

THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR TEMPERATURES
AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS...BASED ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SEAS AT 41008 AND THE ST. MARYS BUOY ARE RUNNING 4-5
FT...A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. MOVED THE START TIME OF THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS UP TO MIDNIGHT
BASED ON THE LATEST 18Z WW4 OUTPUT.

MARINE WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FL COAST. THE LATEST CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW NE
WINDS WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT...THEN SHIFTING TO N AND THEN
NNW LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 6+ FT
OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST AT
OR ABOVE 6 FT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DROP AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE OFFSHORE AND THE FETCH DIMINISHES. WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS BEGINNING
AT 12Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ADVISORIES ARE
LIKELY FOR OTHER WATERS AT SOME POINT ONCE THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND
LIFTS NORTH.

ALSO OF NOTE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT SOME POINT LATER THIS WEEK. IF THIS
HAPPENS...FORECAST WINDS/SEAS WOULD LIKELY INCREASE.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GA COAST
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME 1-2 FT SWELL
EVERY 8 SEC. RIP CURRENT RISK LIKELY TO INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN ABOVE
NORMAL TIDES ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST TIDES ARE 5.9 FT MLLW IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR WED AND THU EVENINGS. THE NNE WINDS WILL PUSH
TIDES ABOVE THAT LEVEL...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH
SURGE TO PUSH THAT TO 7.0 FT ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WE COULD
APPROACH 7.0 FT IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WHICH IS COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST



000
FXUS62 KCHS 052302
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
702 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH BACK TO
THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LOW
WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. OFFSHORE
RETURNS PINNED BY THE KCLX RADAR ARE LIKELY CHAFF PER DUAL-POL
DATA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR
THE BAHAMAS TRIES TO ORGANIZE. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL
AFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATE...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW AND SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM EAST NORTHEAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS EARLY
WILL DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAKEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A CUT OFF UPPER LOW
WILL SIT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE
WELL OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH. PRIMARILY CIRRUS
WILL BE SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THOUGH LATER IN THE DAY THE MODEL LAYER RH FIELDS INDICATE
SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING INTO COASTAL AREAS. QUITE A
BIT OF DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGIME WEDNESDAY WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BE ENHANCED BY A ROBUST SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON...COOLING
COASTAL LOCALES. INLAND SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S WHILE CLOSER TO
THE COAST THE HIGH TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTH TOWARD SOUTHEAST NC. THE 12Z ECMWF CAME INTO LINE MUCH CLOSER
TO THE 12Z GFS...WITH A CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH TO A
POSITION DUE EAST OF MYRTLE BEACH BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS INLAND AREAS...SUCH A TRACK WOULD MINIMIZE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. WE
ADJUSTED OUR POPS TO SHOW 20-30 PERCENT OVER EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. A FARTHER WEST TRACK WOULD CERTAINLY
DICTATE AN INCREASE IN POPS...THOUGH IT IS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY RAIN FREE IF THE SYSTEM STAYS FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE.

TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE MODERATED BY SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD
COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH...THOUGH MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE MAY COUNTER THOSE SOMEWHAT. WE ARE SHOWING LOWER 80S WEST
AND UPPER 70S EAST.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATES A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HOWEVER... IF
THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THAT CURRENTLY FORECAST
THE LOCAL IMPACTS WOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR...REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR
NOT IT BECOMES TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE CLOSER TO
THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR IMPACTS
SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH SURF.

THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR TEMPERATURES
AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS...BASED ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SEAS AT 41008 AND THE ST. MARYS BUOY ARE RUNNING 4-5
FT...A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. MOVED THE START TIME OF THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS UP TO MIDNIGHT
BASED ON THE LATEST 18Z WW4 OUTPUT.

MARINE WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FL COAST. THE LATEST CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW NE
WINDS WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT...THEN SHIFTING TO N AND THEN
NNW LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 6+ FT
OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST AT
OR ABOVE 6 FT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DROP AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE OFFSHORE AND THE FETCH DIMINISHES. WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS BEGINNING
AT 12Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ADVISORIES ARE
LIKELY FOR OTHER WATERS AT SOME POINT ONCE THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND
LIFTS NORTH.

ALSO OF NOTE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT SOME POINT LATER THIS WEEK. IF THIS
HAPPENS...FORECAST WINDS/SEAS WOULD LIKELY INCREASE.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GA COAST
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME 1-2 FT SWELL
EVERY 8 SEC. RIP CURRENT RISK LIKELY TO INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN ABOVE
NORMAL TIDES ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST TIDES ARE 5.9 FT MLLW IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR WED AND THU EVENINGS. THE NNE WINDS WILL PUSH
TIDES ABOVE THAT LEVEL...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH
SURGE TO PUSH THAT TO 7.0 FT ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WE COULD
APPROACH 7.0 FT IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WHICH IS COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KFFC 051942
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD... EVEN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION... EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. INCREASED ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GA MOUNTAINS DUE TO UPSLOPING FLOW BUT NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THAT AREA BUT NOTHING MAJOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THINGS
SUBDUED. AS FAR AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM GOES...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THE MAIN LOW CENTER WHICH IS NOW JUST SE OF SOUTHERN FL
DEEPENING AND MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY 18Z WED
IT SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE FL COAST DUE EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH. IT
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z THU TO JUST OF
THE GA/SC COAST. AFTER THIS THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO THE
EXTENDED. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT
STRAY TOO FAR.

01

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIAL CONCERN IS THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY... THAT
MEANDERS NORTHWARD OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS ON
THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLY DRIFTING SLIGHTLY INLAND OVER PARTS
OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY... AND MEANDERING
IN THAT AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THE SURFACE LOW DOES DRIFT
INLAND... A WEAKENING TREND WOULD BE EXPECTED. BOTH MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION BY MONDAY...
AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ABSORB AND LIFT THE REMNANTS OF
THE COASTAL LOW NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL FIELDS
ARE SHOWING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /1000-2000 MUCAPE/ TO EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT LEAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER... SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK...
AND SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
THIS COULD CHANGE... SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECAST.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO KEEP THE TAF SITES DRY.
AM NOTICING SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
STATE BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR LIMITS AND DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z.
WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE E TO SE AT 10KT OR LESS. NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  83  57  83 /   5   5   0  10
ATLANTA         58  82  57  83 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     51  79  55  80 /  20  20   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    55  82  54  83 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        57  84  59  85 /   0   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     56  81  58  82 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           54  82  57  83 /   0   5   5  10
ROME            54  84  54  84 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  82  56  83 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         59  83  61  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 051942
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD... EVEN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION... EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. INCREASED ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GA MOUNTAINS DUE TO UPSLOPING FLOW BUT NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THAT AREA BUT NOTHING MAJOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THINGS
SUBDUED. AS FAR AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM GOES...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THE MAIN LOW CENTER WHICH IS NOW JUST SE OF SOUTHERN FL
DEEPENING AND MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY 18Z WED
IT SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE FL COAST DUE EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH. IT
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z THU TO JUST OF
THE GA/SC COAST. AFTER THIS THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO THE
EXTENDED. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT
STRAY TOO FAR.

01

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIAL CONCERN IS THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY... THAT
MEANDERS NORTHWARD OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS ON
THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLY DRIFTING SLIGHTLY INLAND OVER PARTS
OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY... AND MEANDERING
IN THAT AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THE SURFACE LOW DOES DRIFT
INLAND... A WEAKENING TREND WOULD BE EXPECTED. BOTH MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION BY MONDAY...
AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ABSORB AND LIFT THE REMNANTS OF
THE COASTAL LOW NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL FIELDS
ARE SHOWING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /1000-2000 MUCAPE/ TO EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT LEAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER... SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK...
AND SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
THIS COULD CHANGE... SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECAST.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO KEEP THE TAF SITES DRY.
AM NOTICING SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
STATE BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR LIMITS AND DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z.
WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE E TO SE AT 10KT OR LESS. NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  83  57  83 /   5   5   0  10
ATLANTA         58  82  57  83 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     51  79  55  80 /  20  20   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    55  82  54  83 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        57  84  59  85 /   0   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     56  81  58  82 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           54  82  57  83 /   0   5   5  10
ROME            54  84  54  84 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  82  56  83 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         59  83  61  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 051942
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD... EVEN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION... EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. INCREASED ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GA MOUNTAINS DUE TO UPSLOPING FLOW BUT NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THAT AREA BUT NOTHING MAJOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THINGS
SUBDUED. AS FAR AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM GOES...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THE MAIN LOW CENTER WHICH IS NOW JUST SE OF SOUTHERN FL
DEEPENING AND MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY 18Z WED
IT SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE FL COAST DUE EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH. IT
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z THU TO JUST OF
THE GA/SC COAST. AFTER THIS THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO THE
EXTENDED. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT
STRAY TOO FAR.

01

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIAL CONCERN IS THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY... THAT
MEANDERS NORTHWARD OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS ON
THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLY DRIFTING SLIGHTLY INLAND OVER PARTS
OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY... AND MEANDERING
IN THAT AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THE SURFACE LOW DOES DRIFT
INLAND... A WEAKENING TREND WOULD BE EXPECTED. BOTH MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION BY MONDAY...
AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ABSORB AND LIFT THE REMNANTS OF
THE COASTAL LOW NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL FIELDS
ARE SHOWING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /1000-2000 MUCAPE/ TO EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT LEAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER... SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK...
AND SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
THIS COULD CHANGE... SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECAST.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO KEEP THE TAF SITES DRY.
AM NOTICING SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
STATE BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR LIMITS AND DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z.
WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE E TO SE AT 10KT OR LESS. NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  83  57  83 /   5   5   0  10
ATLANTA         58  82  57  83 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     51  79  55  80 /  20  20   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    55  82  54  83 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        57  84  59  85 /   0   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     56  81  58  82 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           54  82  57  83 /   0   5   5  10
ROME            54  84  54  84 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  82  56  83 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         59  83  61  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 051942
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD... EVEN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION... EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. INCREASED ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GA MOUNTAINS DUE TO UPSLOPING FLOW BUT NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THAT AREA BUT NOTHING MAJOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THINGS
SUBDUED. AS FAR AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM GOES...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THE MAIN LOW CENTER WHICH IS NOW JUST SE OF SOUTHERN FL
DEEPENING AND MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY 18Z WED
IT SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE FL COAST DUE EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH. IT
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z THU TO JUST OF
THE GA/SC COAST. AFTER THIS THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO THE
EXTENDED. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT
STRAY TOO FAR.

01

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIAL CONCERN IS THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY... THAT
MEANDERS NORTHWARD OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS ON
THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLY DRIFTING SLIGHTLY INLAND OVER PARTS
OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY... AND MEANDERING
IN THAT AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THE SURFACE LOW DOES DRIFT
INLAND... A WEAKENING TREND WOULD BE EXPECTED. BOTH MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION BY MONDAY...
AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ABSORB AND LIFT THE REMNANTS OF
THE COASTAL LOW NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL FIELDS
ARE SHOWING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /1000-2000 MUCAPE/ TO EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT LEAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER... SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK...
AND SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
THIS COULD CHANGE... SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECAST.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO KEEP THE TAF SITES DRY.
AM NOTICING SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
STATE BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR LIMITS AND DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z.
WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE E TO SE AT 10KT OR LESS. NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  83  57  83 /   5   5   0  10
ATLANTA         58  82  57  83 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     51  79  55  80 /  20  20   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    55  82  54  83 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        57  84  59  85 /   0   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     56  81  58  82 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           54  82  57  83 /   0   5   5  10
ROME            54  84  54  84 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  82  56  83 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         59  83  61  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 051942
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD... EVEN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION... EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. INCREASED ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GA MOUNTAINS DUE TO UPSLOPING FLOW BUT NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED. INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THAT AREA BUT NOTHING MAJOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THINGS
SUBDUED. AS FAR AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM GOES...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THE MAIN LOW CENTER WHICH IS NOW JUST SE OF SOUTHERN FL
DEEPENING AND MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY 18Z WED
IT SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE FL COAST DUE EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH. IT
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z THU TO JUST OF
THE GA/SC COAST. AFTER THIS THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO THE
EXTENDED. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT
STRAY TOO FAR.

01

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIAL CONCERN IS THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY... THAT
MEANDERS NORTHWARD OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS ON
THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLY DRIFTING SLIGHTLY INLAND OVER PARTS
OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY... AND MEANDERING
IN THAT AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THE SURFACE LOW DOES DRIFT
INLAND... A WEAKENING TREND WOULD BE EXPECTED. BOTH MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION BY MONDAY...
AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ABSORB AND LIFT THE REMNANTS OF
THE COASTAL LOW NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL FIELDS
ARE SHOWING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /1000-2000 MUCAPE/ TO EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT LEAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER... SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK...
AND SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
THIS COULD CHANGE... SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECAST.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO KEEP THE TAF SITES DRY.
AM NOTICING SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
STATE BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR LIMITS AND DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z.
WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE E TO SE AT 10KT OR LESS. NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  83  57  83 /   5   5   0  10
ATLANTA         58  82  57  83 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     51  79  55  80 /  20  20   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    55  82  54  83 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        57  84  59  85 /   0   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     56  81  58  82 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           54  82  57  83 /   0   5   5  10
ROME            54  84  54  84 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  82  56  83 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         59  83  61  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KCHS 051940
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
340 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH BACK TO
THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LOW
WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR
THE BAHAMAS TRIES TO ORGANIZE. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL
AFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATE...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW AND SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM EAST NORTHEAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS EARLY
WILL DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAKEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A CUT OFF UPPER LOW
WILL SIT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE
WELL OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH. PRIMARILY CIRRUS
WILL BE SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THOUGH LATER IN THE DAY THE MODEL LAYER RH FIELDS INDICATE
SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING INTO COASTAL AREAS. QUITE A
BIT OF DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGIME WEDNESDAY WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BE ENHANCED BY A ROBUST SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON...COOLING
COASTAL LOCALES. INLAND SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S WHILE CLOSER TO
THE COAST THE HIGH TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTH TOWARD SOUTHEAST NC. THE 12Z ECMWF CAME INTO LINE MUCH CLOSER
TO THE 12Z GFS...WITH A CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH TO A
POSITION DUE EAST OF MYRTLE BEACH BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS INLAND AREAS...SUCH A TRACK WOULD MINIMIZE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. WE
ADJUSTED OUR POPS TO SHOW 20-30 PERCENT OVER EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. A FARTHER WEST TRACK WOULD CERTAINLY
DICTATE AN INCREASE IN POPS...THOUGH IT IS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY RAIN FREE IF THE SYSTEM STAYS FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE.

TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE MODERATED BY SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD
COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH...THOUGH MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE MAY COUNTER THOSE SOMEWHAT. WE ARE SHOWING LOWER 80S WEST
AND UPPER 70S EAST.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATES A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HOWEVER... IF
THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THAT CURRENTLY FORECAST
THE LOCAL IMPACTS WOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR...REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR
NOT IT BECOMES TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE CLOSER TO
THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR IMPACTS
SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH SURF.

THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR TEMPERATURES
AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z WED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN GROUND FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND LOW CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS...BASED ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ENHANCED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE
BAHAMAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EAST TO NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING A BIT AS SWELL ENERGY BEGINS TO
INCREASE...LIKELY STAYING JUST SHY OF THE 6 FT ADVISORY CRITERIA
BEYOND 20 NM.

MARINE WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
FL COAST. THE LATEST CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW NE
WINDS WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT...THEN SHIFTING TO N AND THEN
NNW LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 6+ FT
OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST AT
OR ABOVE 6 FT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DROP AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE OFFSHORE AND THE FETCH DIMINISHES. WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS BEGINNING
AT 12Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ADVISORIES ARE
LIKELY FOR OTHER WATERS AT SOME POINT ONCE THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND
LIFTS NORTH.

ALSO OF NOTE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT SOME POINT LATER THIS WEEK. IF THIS
HAPPENS...FORECAST WINDS/SEAS WOULD LIKELY INCREASE.

RIP CURRENTS... MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME 1-2 FT SWELL EVERY
8 SEC. RIP CURRENT RISK LIKELY TO INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN ABOVE
NORMAL TIDES ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST TIDES ARE 5.9 FT MLLW IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR WED AND THU EVENINGS. THE NNE WINDS WILL PUSH
TIDES ABOVE THAT LEVEL...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH
SURGE TO PUSH THAT TO 7.0 FT ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WE COULD
APPROACH 7.0 FT IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WHICH IS COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL/BSH
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JRL



000
FXUS62 KCAE 051849
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
249 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
TOMORROW AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATPIX SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NAM GUIDANCE AS THE
MERCURY DROPS INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCENARIO WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE DISORGANIZED
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF FL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHWARD. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW CREEPING NORTHWARD
OFFSHORE OF THE MELBOURNE FL AREA. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA.
WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE MID LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
JUST INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TO THE WATERS OFF THE
GA COAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WILL SEE
CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK
THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN
MIDLANDS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADJUST TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE LOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINING LOWER THAN DESIRED. HAVE TRENDED THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE GFS AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
GOOD. THIS WILL HAVE THE LOW OFF THE SC COAST THURSDAY AND NEAR
THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEAK WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTING A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHERE MODELS SHOW SOME SUBSIDENCE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAIN LOW AS BEST
MOISTURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONTINUE. COASTAL
LOW EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL EJECT THE LOW FROM THE AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH FROPA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT POSSIBILITY OF SCT IFR CLDS LATE TONIGHT AT OGB DNL AGS
BETWEEN 06Z AND 13Z WITH MVFR VSBYS AT AGS/OGB FOR THE SAME TIME
PERIOD. VSBYS MAY LOWER TO IFR AT AGS IF RIVER FOG DEVELOPS NEAR
THE ASOS SITE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND NORTHEAST
AROUND 10KTS WEDNESDAY.

MVFR/IFR CIGS INDICATED BY THE NAM MODEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
ONSHORE FLOW ALLOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT OGB/AGS/DNL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 051849
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
249 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
TOMORROW AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATPIX SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NAM GUIDANCE AS THE
MERCURY DROPS INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCENARIO WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE DISORGANIZED
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF FL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHWARD. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW CREEPING NORTHWARD
OFFSHORE OF THE MELBOURNE FL AREA. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA.
WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE MID LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
JUST INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TO THE WATERS OFF THE
GA COAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WILL SEE
CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK
THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN
MIDLANDS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADJUST TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE LOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINING LOWER THAN DESIRED. HAVE TRENDED THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE GFS AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
GOOD. THIS WILL HAVE THE LOW OFF THE SC COAST THURSDAY AND NEAR
THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEAK WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTING A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHERE MODELS SHOW SOME SUBSIDENCE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAIN LOW AS BEST
MOISTURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONTINUE. COASTAL
LOW EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL EJECT THE LOW FROM THE AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH FROPA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT POSSIBILITY OF SCT IFR CLDS LATE TONIGHT AT OGB DNL AGS
BETWEEN 06Z AND 13Z WITH MVFR VSBYS AT AGS/OGB FOR THE SAME TIME
PERIOD. VSBYS MAY LOWER TO IFR AT AGS IF RIVER FOG DEVELOPS NEAR
THE ASOS SITE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND NORTHEAST
AROUND 10KTS WEDNESDAY.

MVFR/IFR CIGS INDICATED BY THE NAM MODEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
ONSHORE FLOW ALLOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT OGB/AGS/DNL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 051849
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
249 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
TOMORROW AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATPIX SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NAM GUIDANCE AS THE
MERCURY DROPS INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCENARIO WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE DISORGANIZED
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF FL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHWARD. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW CREEPING NORTHWARD
OFFSHORE OF THE MELBOURNE FL AREA. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA.
WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE MID LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
JUST INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TO THE WATERS OFF THE
GA COAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WILL SEE
CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK
THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN
MIDLANDS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADJUST TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE LOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINING LOWER THAN DESIRED. HAVE TRENDED THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE GFS AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
GOOD. THIS WILL HAVE THE LOW OFF THE SC COAST THURSDAY AND NEAR
THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEAK WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTING A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHERE MODELS SHOW SOME SUBSIDENCE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAIN LOW AS BEST
MOISTURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONTINUE. COASTAL
LOW EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL EJECT THE LOW FROM THE AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH FROPA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT POSSIBILITY OF SCT IFR CLDS LATE TONIGHT AT OGB DNL AGS
BETWEEN 06Z AND 13Z WITH MVFR VSBYS AT AGS/OGB FOR THE SAME TIME
PERIOD. VSBYS MAY LOWER TO IFR AT AGS IF RIVER FOG DEVELOPS NEAR
THE ASOS SITE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND NORTHEAST
AROUND 10KTS WEDNESDAY.

MVFR/IFR CIGS INDICATED BY THE NAM MODEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
ONSHORE FLOW ALLOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT OGB/AGS/DNL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 051849
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
249 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
TOMORROW AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATPIX SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NAM GUIDANCE AS THE
MERCURY DROPS INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCENARIO WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE DISORGANIZED
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF FL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHWARD. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW CREEPING NORTHWARD
OFFSHORE OF THE MELBOURNE FL AREA. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA.
WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE MID LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
JUST INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TO THE WATERS OFF THE
GA COAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WILL SEE
CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK
THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN
MIDLANDS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADJUST TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE LOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINING LOWER THAN DESIRED. HAVE TRENDED THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE GFS AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
GOOD. THIS WILL HAVE THE LOW OFF THE SC COAST THURSDAY AND NEAR
THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEAK WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTING A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHERE MODELS SHOW SOME SUBSIDENCE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAIN LOW AS BEST
MOISTURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONTINUE. COASTAL
LOW EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL EJECT THE LOW FROM THE AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH FROPA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT POSSIBILITY OF SCT IFR CLDS LATE TONIGHT AT OGB DNL AGS
BETWEEN 06Z AND 13Z WITH MVFR VSBYS AT AGS/OGB FOR THE SAME TIME
PERIOD. VSBYS MAY LOWER TO IFR AT AGS IF RIVER FOG DEVELOPS NEAR
THE ASOS SITE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND NORTHEAST
AROUND 10KTS WEDNESDAY.

MVFR/IFR CIGS INDICATED BY THE NAM MODEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
ONSHORE FLOW ALLOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT OGB/AGS/DNL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 051849
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
249 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
TOMORROW AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATPIX SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NAM GUIDANCE AS THE
MERCURY DROPS INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCENARIO WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE DISORGANIZED
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF FL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHWARD. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW CREEPING NORTHWARD
OFFSHORE OF THE MELBOURNE FL AREA. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA.
WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE MID LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
JUST INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TO THE WATERS OFF THE
GA COAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WILL SEE
CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK
THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN
MIDLANDS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADJUST TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE LOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINING LOWER THAN DESIRED. HAVE TRENDED THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE GFS AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
GOOD. THIS WILL HAVE THE LOW OFF THE SC COAST THURSDAY AND NEAR
THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEAK WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTING A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHERE MODELS SHOW SOME SUBSIDENCE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAIN LOW AS BEST
MOISTURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONTINUE. COASTAL
LOW EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL EJECT THE LOW FROM THE AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH FROPA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT POSSIBILITY OF SCT IFR CLDS LATE TONIGHT AT OGB DNL AGS
BETWEEN 06Z AND 13Z WITH MVFR VSBYS AT AGS/OGB FOR THE SAME TIME
PERIOD. VSBYS MAY LOWER TO IFR AT AGS IF RIVER FOG DEVELOPS NEAR
THE ASOS SITE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND NORTHEAST
AROUND 10KTS WEDNESDAY.

MVFR/IFR CIGS INDICATED BY THE NAM MODEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
ONSHORE FLOW ALLOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT OGB/AGS/DNL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 051849
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
249 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
TOMORROW AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATPIX SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NAM GUIDANCE AS THE
MERCURY DROPS INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCENARIO WILL CHANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE DISORGANIZED
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF FL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHWARD. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW CREEPING NORTHWARD
OFFSHORE OF THE MELBOURNE FL AREA. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA.
WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE MID LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
JUST INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TO THE WATERS OFF THE
GA COAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WILL SEE
CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK
THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN
MIDLANDS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADJUST TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE LOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINING LOWER THAN DESIRED. HAVE TRENDED THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE GFS AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
GOOD. THIS WILL HAVE THE LOW OFF THE SC COAST THURSDAY AND NEAR
THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEAK WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTING A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHERE MODELS SHOW SOME SUBSIDENCE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT REMAIN LOW AS BEST
MOISTURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES CONTINUE. COASTAL
LOW EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL EJECT THE LOW FROM THE AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH FROPA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT POSSIBILITY OF SCT IFR CLDS LATE TONIGHT AT OGB DNL AGS
BETWEEN 06Z AND 13Z WITH MVFR VSBYS AT AGS/OGB FOR THE SAME TIME
PERIOD. VSBYS MAY LOWER TO IFR AT AGS IF RIVER FOG DEVELOPS NEAR
THE ASOS SITE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND NORTHEAST
AROUND 10KTS WEDNESDAY.

MVFR/IFR CIGS INDICATED BY THE NAM MODEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
ONSHORE FLOW ALLOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT OGB/AGS/DNL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KFFC 051752
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
152 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE FORECAST
AREA CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC...WHICH KEEPS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. INCREASED ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT TO SEE SCT-BKN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.  WEAK VORT MAX IN THE VICINITY OF
THE NE MOUNTAINS...WILL COMBINE WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.  GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR.

ATWELL

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM RUN TO RUN BY KEEPING THE FUTURE
COASTAL LOW JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BEFORE PULLING IT OUT TO
SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST
COAST...THE COASTAL LOW WILL HANG AROUND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. THEN AS THE WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE
PLAINS...THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME CAUGHT IN THE UPPER FLOW AND
HEAD OUT TO SEA. BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW USUALLY
BRINGS SUBSIDENCE...IE DRY WEATHER...HOWEVER THE GFS IS STILL
TRYING TO BRING IN SOME MOISTURE...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO KEEP THE TAF SITES DRY.
AM NOTICING SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
STATE BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR LIMITS AND DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z.
WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE E TO SE AT 10KT OR LESS. NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  56  83  58 /   5  10   5   0
ATLANTA         80  58  82  58 /   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     78  51  79  56 /  20  20  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    82  55  82  55 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        83  57  83  60 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     81  56  81  59 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           83  54  82  58 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            84  54  83  55 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  81  53  82  57 /   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         83  59  83  61 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 051752
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
152 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE FORECAST
AREA CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC...WHICH KEEPS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. INCREASED ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT TO SEE SCT-BKN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.  WEAK VORT MAX IN THE VICINITY OF
THE NE MOUNTAINS...WILL COMBINE WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.  GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR.

ATWELL

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM RUN TO RUN BY KEEPING THE FUTURE
COASTAL LOW JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BEFORE PULLING IT OUT TO
SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST
COAST...THE COASTAL LOW WILL HANG AROUND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. THEN AS THE WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE
PLAINS...THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME CAUGHT IN THE UPPER FLOW AND
HEAD OUT TO SEA. BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW USUALLY
BRINGS SUBSIDENCE...IE DRY WEATHER...HOWEVER THE GFS IS STILL
TRYING TO BRING IN SOME MOISTURE...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO KEEP THE TAF SITES DRY.
AM NOTICING SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
STATE BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR LIMITS AND DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z.
WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE E TO SE AT 10KT OR LESS. NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  56  83  58 /   5  10   5   0
ATLANTA         80  58  82  58 /   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     78  51  79  56 /  20  20  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    82  55  82  55 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        83  57  83  60 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     81  56  81  59 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           83  54  82  58 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            84  54  83  55 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  81  53  82  57 /   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         83  59  83  61 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 051752
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
152 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE FORECAST
AREA CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC...WHICH KEEPS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. INCREASED ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT TO SEE SCT-BKN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.  WEAK VORT MAX IN THE VICINITY OF
THE NE MOUNTAINS...WILL COMBINE WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.  GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR.

ATWELL

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM RUN TO RUN BY KEEPING THE FUTURE
COASTAL LOW JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BEFORE PULLING IT OUT TO
SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST
COAST...THE COASTAL LOW WILL HANG AROUND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. THEN AS THE WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE
PLAINS...THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME CAUGHT IN THE UPPER FLOW AND
HEAD OUT TO SEA. BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW USUALLY
BRINGS SUBSIDENCE...IE DRY WEATHER...HOWEVER THE GFS IS STILL
TRYING TO BRING IN SOME MOISTURE...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO KEEP THE TAF SITES DRY.
AM NOTICING SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
STATE BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR LIMITS AND DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z.
WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE E TO SE AT 10KT OR LESS. NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  56  83  58 /   5  10   5   0
ATLANTA         80  58  82  58 /   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     78  51  79  56 /  20  20  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    82  55  82  55 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        83  57  83  60 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     81  56  81  59 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           83  54  82  58 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            84  54  83  55 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  81  53  82  57 /   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         83  59  83  61 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 051752
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
152 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE FORECAST
AREA CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC...WHICH KEEPS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. INCREASED ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT TO SEE SCT-BKN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.  WEAK VORT MAX IN THE VICINITY OF
THE NE MOUNTAINS...WILL COMBINE WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.  GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR.

ATWELL

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM RUN TO RUN BY KEEPING THE FUTURE
COASTAL LOW JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BEFORE PULLING IT OUT TO
SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST
COAST...THE COASTAL LOW WILL HANG AROUND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. THEN AS THE WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE
PLAINS...THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME CAUGHT IN THE UPPER FLOW AND
HEAD OUT TO SEA. BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW USUALLY
BRINGS SUBSIDENCE...IE DRY WEATHER...HOWEVER THE GFS IS STILL
TRYING TO BRING IN SOME MOISTURE...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO KEEP THE TAF SITES DRY.
AM NOTICING SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
STATE BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR LIMITS AND DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z.
WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE E TO SE AT 10KT OR LESS. NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  56  83  58 /   5  10   5   0
ATLANTA         80  58  82  58 /   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     78  51  79  56 /  20  20  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    82  55  82  55 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        83  57  83  60 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     81  56  81  59 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           83  54  82  58 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            84  54  83  55 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  81  53  82  57 /   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         83  59  83  61 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 051752
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
152 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE FORECAST
AREA CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC...WHICH KEEPS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. INCREASED ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT TO SEE SCT-BKN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.  WEAK VORT MAX IN THE VICINITY OF
THE NE MOUNTAINS...WILL COMBINE WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.  GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR.

ATWELL

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM RUN TO RUN BY KEEPING THE FUTURE
COASTAL LOW JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BEFORE PULLING IT OUT TO
SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST
COAST...THE COASTAL LOW WILL HANG AROUND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. THEN AS THE WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE
PLAINS...THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME CAUGHT IN THE UPPER FLOW AND
HEAD OUT TO SEA. BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW USUALLY
BRINGS SUBSIDENCE...IE DRY WEATHER...HOWEVER THE GFS IS STILL
TRYING TO BRING IN SOME MOISTURE...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO KEEP THE TAF SITES DRY.
AM NOTICING SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
STATE BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR LIMITS AND DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z.
WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE E TO SE AT 10KT OR LESS. NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  56  83  58 /   5  10   5   0
ATLANTA         80  58  82  58 /   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     78  51  79  56 /  20  20  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    82  55  82  55 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        83  57  83  60 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     81  56  81  59 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           83  54  82  58 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            84  54  83  55 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  81  53  82  57 /   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         83  59  83  61 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01



000
FXUS62 KFFC 051752
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
152 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE FORECAST
AREA CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC...WHICH KEEPS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. INCREASED ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT TO SEE SCT-BKN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.  WEAK VORT MAX IN THE VICINITY OF
THE NE MOUNTAINS...WILL COMBINE WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.  GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR.

ATWELL

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM RUN TO RUN BY KEEPING THE FUTURE
COASTAL LOW JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BEFORE PULLING IT OUT TO
SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST
COAST...THE COASTAL LOW WILL HANG AROUND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. THEN AS THE WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE
PLAINS...THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME CAUGHT IN THE UPPER FLOW AND
HEAD OUT TO SEA. BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW USUALLY
BRINGS SUBSIDENCE...IE DRY WEATHER...HOWEVER THE GFS IS STILL
TRYING TO BRING IN SOME MOISTURE...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO KEEP THE TAF SITES DRY.
AM NOTICING SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
STATE BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR LIMITS AND DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z.
WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE E TO SE AT 10KT OR LESS. NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  56  83  58 /   5  10   5   0
ATLANTA         80  58  82  58 /   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     78  51  79  56 /  20  20  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    82  55  82  55 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        83  57  83  60 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     81  56  81  59 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           83  54  82  58 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            84  54  83  55 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  81  53  82  57 /   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         83  59  83  61 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KCHS 051743
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
143 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH
BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO THE NORTH AND EAST LEADING TO ONSHORE
WINDS WHICH WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCALES A BIT COOLER IN THE 70S.
INLAND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S. ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY/GUSTY AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...AND THE PLUME
OF CIRRUS STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY
OFFSHORE.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING
ONSHORE INTO FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN VERY
LOW AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER RAIN-FREE NIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ON THE
COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP LATE...PERHAPS IMPACTING LATE-NIGHT TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AS WELL AS WARM
MID LEVELS THAT KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR INLAND AREAS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT EVEN THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW DEVELOPS AND WHAT ITS INITIAL TRACK WILL BE. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH LOW 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE AND THE FORECAST IS DRY THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC LOW BEING SO
FAR OFFSHORE ACCORDING TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE ATLANTIC LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND
ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO LACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN 24...OR EVEN 12 HOURS AGO. WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD...WELL OFF THE COAST...THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN PUSH BACK
TO THE WEST TOWARD THE COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY. THIS FURTHER EAST
CONSENSUS FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT WOULD ACT TO AT THE
VERY LEAST DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL MAINLY THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A FURTHER OFFSHORE SOLUTION...WHILE THE
NAM IS MUCH STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODEL PHASE ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON MORE TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES. AS
SUCH...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN
THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...IT APPEARS ANY
NOTABLE IMPACTS WILL BE DELAYED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE CURRENT MODELS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER POPS...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND DIMINISHED WINDS.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR
IMPACTS SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH
SURF. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
INLAND THEN ALLOWS IT TO LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF DOES NOT PUSH THE
LOW INLAND AND ACTUALLY LIFTS IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z WED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN GROUND FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND LOW CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND...THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE LOW COMES TO THE COAST AND ITS STRENGTH...THERE COULD BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AUGMENTS SYNOPTIC EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS...EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-4 FT
WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS...WINDS
WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AVERAGING LESS THAN 20
KT. SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF THE OFFSHORE LOW
THAT DEVELOPS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHICH RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR A WEAKER AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY AS INCREASING SWELL ENERGY DRIVES SEAS
HIGHER. WINDS WOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES
BACK TO THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND THE LOW.
ALSO OF NOTE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON SOME TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE TO
DEVELOP...AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

RIP CURRENTS...INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND BREEZY WINDS WILL MAKE
FOR A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIPS TODAY ALTHOUGH WE DECIDED TO
LEAVE THE RISK IN THE LOW CATEGORY FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
MUCH INCREASED RISK LATER THIS WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE
INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH



000
FXUS62 KCHS 051743
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
143 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH
BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO THE NORTH AND EAST LEADING TO ONSHORE
WINDS WHICH WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCALES A BIT COOLER IN THE 70S.
INLAND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S. ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY/GUSTY AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...AND THE PLUME
OF CIRRUS STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY
OFFSHORE.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING
ONSHORE INTO FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN VERY
LOW AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER RAIN-FREE NIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ON THE
COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP LATE...PERHAPS IMPACTING LATE-NIGHT TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AS WELL AS WARM
MID LEVELS THAT KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR INLAND AREAS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT EVEN THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW DEVELOPS AND WHAT ITS INITIAL TRACK WILL BE. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH LOW 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE AND THE FORECAST IS DRY THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC LOW BEING SO
FAR OFFSHORE ACCORDING TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE ATLANTIC LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND
ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO LACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN 24...OR EVEN 12 HOURS AGO. WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD...WELL OFF THE COAST...THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN PUSH BACK
TO THE WEST TOWARD THE COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY. THIS FURTHER EAST
CONSENSUS FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT WOULD ACT TO AT THE
VERY LEAST DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL MAINLY THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A FURTHER OFFSHORE SOLUTION...WHILE THE
NAM IS MUCH STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODEL PHASE ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON MORE TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES. AS
SUCH...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN
THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...IT APPEARS ANY
NOTABLE IMPACTS WILL BE DELAYED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE CURRENT MODELS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER POPS...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND DIMINISHED WINDS.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR
IMPACTS SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH
SURF. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
INLAND THEN ALLOWS IT TO LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF DOES NOT PUSH THE
LOW INLAND AND ACTUALLY LIFTS IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z WED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN GROUND FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND LOW CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND...THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE LOW COMES TO THE COAST AND ITS STRENGTH...THERE COULD BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AUGMENTS SYNOPTIC EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS...EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-4 FT
WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS...WINDS
WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AVERAGING LESS THAN 20
KT. SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF THE OFFSHORE LOW
THAT DEVELOPS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHICH RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR A WEAKER AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY AS INCREASING SWELL ENERGY DRIVES SEAS
HIGHER. WINDS WOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES
BACK TO THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND THE LOW.
ALSO OF NOTE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON SOME TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE TO
DEVELOP...AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

RIP CURRENTS...INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND BREEZY WINDS WILL MAKE
FOR A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIPS TODAY ALTHOUGH WE DECIDED TO
LEAVE THE RISK IN THE LOW CATEGORY FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
MUCH INCREASED RISK LATER THIS WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE
INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH




000
FXUS62 KCAE 051720
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
120 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
TOMORROW AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TLATE THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATPIX SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NAM GUIDANCE AS THE
MERCURY DROPS INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL DOMINATING THE WEATHER. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEARLY THE SAME WITH
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST MOVES NORTHWARD. FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH A MORE
WESTERLY POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS...CONFIDENCE LEVELS REMAIN LOW ON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING. DUE
TO THIS HAVE KEPT CURRENT POPS TRENDS WITH POPS NO HIGHER THAN
CHANCE FOR SHRA/ISO THUNDER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT POSSIBILITY OF SCT IFR CLDS LATE TONIGHT AT OGB DNL AGS
BETWEEN 06Z AND 13Z WITH MVFR VSBYS AT AGS/OGB FOR THE SAME TIME
PERIOD. VSBYS MAY LOWER TO IFR AT AGS IF RIVER FOG DEVELOPS NEAR
THE ASOS SITE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND NORTHEAST
AROUND 10KTS WEDNESDAY.

MVFR/IFR CIGS INDICATED BY THE NAM MODEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
ONSHORE FLOW ALLOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT OGB/AGS/DNL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 051720
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
120 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
TOMORROW AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TLATE THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATPIX SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NAM GUIDANCE AS THE
MERCURY DROPS INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL DOMINATING THE WEATHER. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEARLY THE SAME WITH
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST MOVES NORTHWARD. FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH A MORE
WESTERLY POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS...CONFIDENCE LEVELS REMAIN LOW ON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING. DUE
TO THIS HAVE KEPT CURRENT POPS TRENDS WITH POPS NO HIGHER THAN
CHANCE FOR SHRA/ISO THUNDER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT POSSIBILITY OF SCT IFR CLDS LATE TONIGHT AT OGB DNL AGS
BETWEEN 06Z AND 13Z WITH MVFR VSBYS AT AGS/OGB FOR THE SAME TIME
PERIOD. VSBYS MAY LOWER TO IFR AT AGS IF RIVER FOG DEVELOPS NEAR
THE ASOS SITE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND NORTHEAST
AROUND 10KTS WEDNESDAY.

MVFR/IFR CIGS INDICATED BY THE NAM MODEL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
ONSHORE FLOW ALLOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT OGB/AGS/DNL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 051512
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1112 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH
BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO THE NORTH AND EAST LEADING TO ONSHORE
WINDS WHICH WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCALES A BIT COOLER IN THE 70S.
INLAND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S. ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY/GUSTY AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...AND THE PLUME
OF CIRRUS STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY
OFFSHORE.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING
ONSHORE INTO FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN VERY
LOW AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER RAIN-FREE NIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ON THE
COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP LATE...PERHAPS IMPACTING LATE-NIGHT TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AS WELL AS WARM
MID LEVELS THAT KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR INLAND AREAS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT EVEN THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW DEVELOPS AND WHAT ITS INITIAL TRACK WILL BE. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH LOW 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE AND THE FORECAST IS DRY THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC LOW BEING SO
FAR OFFSHORE ACCORDING TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE ATLANTIC LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND
ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO LACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN 24...OR EVEN 12 HOURS AGO. WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD...WELL OFF THE COAST...THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN PUSH BACK
TO THE WEST TOWARD THE COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY. THIS FURTHER EAST
CONSENSUS FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT WOULD ACT TO AT THE
VERY LEAST DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL MAINLY THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A FURTHER OFFSHORE SOLUTION...WHILE THE
NAM IS MUCH STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODEL PHASE ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON MORE TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES. AS
SUCH...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN
THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...IT APPEARS ANY
NOTABLE IMPACTS WILL BE DELAYED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE CURRENT MODELS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER POPS...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND DIMINISHED WINDS.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR
IMPACTS SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH
SURF. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
INLAND THEN ALLOWS IT TO LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF DOES NOT PUSH THE
LOW INLAND AND ACTUALLY LIFTS IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR GROUND FOG AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND...THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE LOW COMES TO THE COAST AND ITS STRENGTH...THERE COULD BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AUGMENTS SYNOPTIC EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS...EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-4 FT
WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS...WINDS
WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AVERAGING LESS THAN 20
KT. SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF THE OFFSHORE LOW
THAT DEVELOPS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHICH RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR A WEAKER AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY AS INCREASING SWELL ENERGY DRIVES SEAS
HIGHER. WINDS WOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES
BACK TO THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND THE LOW.
ALSO OF NOTE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON SOME TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE TO
DEVELOP...AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

RIP CURRENTS...INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND BREEZY WINDS WILL MAKE
FOR A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIPS TODAY ALTHOUGH WE DECIDED TO
LEAVE THE RISK IN THE LOW CATEGORY FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
MUCH INCREASED RISK LATER THIS WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE
INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 051512
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1112 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH
BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO THE NORTH AND EAST LEADING TO ONSHORE
WINDS WHICH WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCALES A BIT COOLER IN THE 70S.
INLAND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S. ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY/GUSTY AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...AND THE PLUME
OF CIRRUS STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY
OFFSHORE.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING
ONSHORE INTO FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN VERY
LOW AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER RAIN-FREE NIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ON THE
COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP LATE...PERHAPS IMPACTING LATE-NIGHT TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AS WELL AS WARM
MID LEVELS THAT KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR INLAND AREAS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT EVEN THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW DEVELOPS AND WHAT ITS INITIAL TRACK WILL BE. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH LOW 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE AND THE FORECAST IS DRY THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC LOW BEING SO
FAR OFFSHORE ACCORDING TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE ATLANTIC LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND
ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO LACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN 24...OR EVEN 12 HOURS AGO. WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD...WELL OFF THE COAST...THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN PUSH BACK
TO THE WEST TOWARD THE COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY. THIS FURTHER EAST
CONSENSUS FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT WOULD ACT TO AT THE
VERY LEAST DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL MAINLY THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A FURTHER OFFSHORE SOLUTION...WHILE THE
NAM IS MUCH STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODEL PHASE ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON MORE TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES. AS
SUCH...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN
THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...IT APPEARS ANY
NOTABLE IMPACTS WILL BE DELAYED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE CURRENT MODELS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER POPS...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND DIMINISHED WINDS.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR
IMPACTS SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH
SURF. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
INLAND THEN ALLOWS IT TO LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF DOES NOT PUSH THE
LOW INLAND AND ACTUALLY LIFTS IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR GROUND FOG AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND...THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE LOW COMES TO THE COAST AND ITS STRENGTH...THERE COULD BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AUGMENTS SYNOPTIC EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS...EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-4 FT
WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS...WINDS
WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AVERAGING LESS THAN 20
KT. SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF THE OFFSHORE LOW
THAT DEVELOPS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHICH RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR A WEAKER AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY AS INCREASING SWELL ENERGY DRIVES SEAS
HIGHER. WINDS WOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES
BACK TO THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND THE LOW.
ALSO OF NOTE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON SOME TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE TO
DEVELOP...AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

RIP CURRENTS...INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND BREEZY WINDS WILL MAKE
FOR A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIPS TODAY ALTHOUGH WE DECIDED TO
LEAVE THE RISK IN THE LOW CATEGORY FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
MUCH INCREASED RISK LATER THIS WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE
INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 051512
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1112 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH
BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO THE NORTH AND EAST LEADING TO ONSHORE
WINDS WHICH WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCALES A BIT COOLER IN THE 70S.
INLAND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S. ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY/GUSTY AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...AND THE PLUME
OF CIRRUS STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY
OFFSHORE.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING
ONSHORE INTO FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN VERY
LOW AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER RAIN-FREE NIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ON THE
COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP LATE...PERHAPS IMPACTING LATE-NIGHT TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AS WELL AS WARM
MID LEVELS THAT KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR INLAND AREAS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT EVEN THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW DEVELOPS AND WHAT ITS INITIAL TRACK WILL BE. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH LOW 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE AND THE FORECAST IS DRY THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC LOW BEING SO
FAR OFFSHORE ACCORDING TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE ATLANTIC LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND
ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO LACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN 24...OR EVEN 12 HOURS AGO. WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD...WELL OFF THE COAST...THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN PUSH BACK
TO THE WEST TOWARD THE COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY. THIS FURTHER EAST
CONSENSUS FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT WOULD ACT TO AT THE
VERY LEAST DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL MAINLY THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A FURTHER OFFSHORE SOLUTION...WHILE THE
NAM IS MUCH STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODEL PHASE ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON MORE TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES. AS
SUCH...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN
THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...IT APPEARS ANY
NOTABLE IMPACTS WILL BE DELAYED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE CURRENT MODELS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER POPS...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND DIMINISHED WINDS.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR
IMPACTS SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH
SURF. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
INLAND THEN ALLOWS IT TO LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF DOES NOT PUSH THE
LOW INLAND AND ACTUALLY LIFTS IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR GROUND FOG AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND...THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE LOW COMES TO THE COAST AND ITS STRENGTH...THERE COULD BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AUGMENTS SYNOPTIC EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS...EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-4 FT
WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS...WINDS
WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AVERAGING LESS THAN 20
KT. SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF THE OFFSHORE LOW
THAT DEVELOPS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHICH RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR A WEAKER AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY AS INCREASING SWELL ENERGY DRIVES SEAS
HIGHER. WINDS WOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES
BACK TO THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND THE LOW.
ALSO OF NOTE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON SOME TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE TO
DEVELOP...AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

RIP CURRENTS...INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND BREEZY WINDS WILL MAKE
FOR A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIPS TODAY ALTHOUGH WE DECIDED TO
LEAVE THE RISK IN THE LOW CATEGORY FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
MUCH INCREASED RISK LATER THIS WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE
INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 051512
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1112 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH
BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO THE NORTH AND EAST LEADING TO ONSHORE
WINDS WHICH WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCALES A BIT COOLER IN THE 70S.
INLAND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S. ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY/GUSTY AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...AND THE PLUME
OF CIRRUS STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY
OFFSHORE.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING
ONSHORE INTO FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN VERY
LOW AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER RAIN-FREE NIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ON THE
COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP LATE...PERHAPS IMPACTING LATE-NIGHT TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AS WELL AS WARM
MID LEVELS THAT KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR INLAND AREAS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT EVEN THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW DEVELOPS AND WHAT ITS INITIAL TRACK WILL BE. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH LOW 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE AND THE FORECAST IS DRY THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC LOW BEING SO
FAR OFFSHORE ACCORDING TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE ATLANTIC LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND
ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO LACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN 24...OR EVEN 12 HOURS AGO. WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD...WELL OFF THE COAST...THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN PUSH BACK
TO THE WEST TOWARD THE COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY. THIS FURTHER EAST
CONSENSUS FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT WOULD ACT TO AT THE
VERY LEAST DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL MAINLY THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A FURTHER OFFSHORE SOLUTION...WHILE THE
NAM IS MUCH STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODEL PHASE ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON MORE TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES. AS
SUCH...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN
THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...IT APPEARS ANY
NOTABLE IMPACTS WILL BE DELAYED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE CURRENT MODELS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER POPS...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND DIMINISHED WINDS.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR
IMPACTS SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH
SURF. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
INLAND THEN ALLOWS IT TO LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF DOES NOT PUSH THE
LOW INLAND AND ACTUALLY LIFTS IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR GROUND FOG AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND...THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE LOW COMES TO THE COAST AND ITS STRENGTH...THERE COULD BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AUGMENTS SYNOPTIC EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS...EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-4 FT
WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS...WINDS
WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AVERAGING LESS THAN 20
KT. SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF THE OFFSHORE LOW
THAT DEVELOPS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHICH RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR A WEAKER AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY AS INCREASING SWELL ENERGY DRIVES SEAS
HIGHER. WINDS WOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES
BACK TO THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND THE LOW.
ALSO OF NOTE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON SOME TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE TO
DEVELOP...AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

RIP CURRENTS...INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND BREEZY WINDS WILL MAKE
FOR A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIPS TODAY ALTHOUGH WE DECIDED TO
LEAVE THE RISK IN THE LOW CATEGORY FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
MUCH INCREASED RISK LATER THIS WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE
INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR



000
FXUS62 KFFC 051128
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
728 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE FORECAST
AREA CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC...WHICH KEEPS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. INCREASED ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT TO SEE SCT-BKN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.  WEAK VORT MAX IN THE VICINITY OF
THE NE MOUNTAINS...WILL COMBINE WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.  GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR.

ATWELL

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM RUN TO RUN BY KEEPING THE FUTURE
COASTAL LOW JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BEFORE PULLING IT OUT TO
SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST
COAST...THE COASTAL LOW WILL HANG AROUND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. THEN AS THE WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE
PLAINS...THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME CAUGHT IN THE UPPER FLOW AND
HEAD OUT TO SEA. BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW USUALLY
BRINGS SUBSIDENCE...IE DRY WEATHER...HOWEVER THE GFS IS STILL
TRYING TO BRING IN SOME MOISTURE...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT.
EXPECT FEW-SCT060 WITH BKN090 POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS
WILL STAY SE WITH 5-7KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  56  83  58 /   5  10   5   0
ATLANTA         80  58  82  58 /   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     78  51  79  56 /  20  20  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    82  55  82  55 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        83  57  83  60 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     81  56  81  59 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           83  54  82  58 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            84  54  83  55 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  81  53  82  57 /   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         83  59  83  61 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATWELL



000
FXUS62 KFFC 051128
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
728 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE FORECAST
AREA CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC...WHICH KEEPS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. INCREASED ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT TO SEE SCT-BKN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.  WEAK VORT MAX IN THE VICINITY OF
THE NE MOUNTAINS...WILL COMBINE WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.  GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR.

ATWELL

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM RUN TO RUN BY KEEPING THE FUTURE
COASTAL LOW JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BEFORE PULLING IT OUT TO
SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST
COAST...THE COASTAL LOW WILL HANG AROUND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. THEN AS THE WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE
PLAINS...THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME CAUGHT IN THE UPPER FLOW AND
HEAD OUT TO SEA. BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW USUALLY
BRINGS SUBSIDENCE...IE DRY WEATHER...HOWEVER THE GFS IS STILL
TRYING TO BRING IN SOME MOISTURE...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT.
EXPECT FEW-SCT060 WITH BKN090 POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS
WILL STAY SE WITH 5-7KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  56  83  58 /   5  10   5   0
ATLANTA         80  58  82  58 /   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     78  51  79  56 /  20  20  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    82  55  82  55 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        83  57  83  60 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     81  56  81  59 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           83  54  82  58 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            84  54  83  55 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  81  53  82  57 /   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         83  59  83  61 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATWELL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 051050
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
650 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH
BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS
WERE NEEDED. EXPECT YET ANOTHER DAY FEATURING RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND IN THE LOWER/MID 70S ON THE BEACHES/SEA
ISLANDS. ONSHORE WINDS COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AS
THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL
CUMULUS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...AND THE PLUME OF CIRRUS
STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY OFFSHORE.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING
ONSHORE INTO FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN VERY
LOW AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER RAIN-FREE NIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ON THE
COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP LATE...PERHAPS IMPACTING LATE-NIGHT TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AS WELL AS WARM
MID LEVELS THAT KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR INLAND AREAS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT EVEN THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW DEVELOPS AND WHAT ITS INITIAL TRACK WILL BE. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH LOW 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE AND THE FORECAST IS DRY THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC LOW BEING SO
FAR OFFSHORE ACCORDING TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE ATLANTIC LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND
ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO LACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN 24...OR EVEN 12 HOURS AGO. WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD...WELL OFF THE COAST...THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN PUSH BACK
TO THE WEST TOWARD THE COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY. THIS FURTHER EAST
CONSENSUS FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT WOULD ACT TO AT THE
VERY LEAST DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL MAINLY THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A FURTHER OFFSHORE SOLUTION...WHILE THE
NAM IS MUCH STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODEL PHASE ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON MORE TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES. AS
SUCH...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN
THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...IT APPEARS ANY
NOTABLE IMPACTS WILL BE DELAYED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE CURRENT MODELS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER POPS...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND DIMINISHED WINDS.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR
IMPACTS SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH
SURF. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
INLAND THEN ALLOWS IT TO LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF DOES NOT PUSH THE
LOW INLAND AND ACTUALLY LIFTS IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR GROUND FOG AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND...THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE LOW COMES TO THE COAST AND ITS STRENGTH...THERE COULD BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AUGMENTS SYNOPTIC EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS...EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-4 FT
WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS...WINDS
WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AVERAGING LESS THAN 20
KT. SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF THE OFFSHORE LOW
THAT DEVELOPS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHICH RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR A WEAKER AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY AS INCREASING SWELL ENERGY DRIVES SEAS
HIGHER. WINDS WOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES
BACK TO THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND THE LOW.
ALSO OF NOTE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON SOME TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE TO
DEVELOP...AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKELY LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR
THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 051050
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
650 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH
BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS
WERE NEEDED. EXPECT YET ANOTHER DAY FEATURING RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND IN THE LOWER/MID 70S ON THE BEACHES/SEA
ISLANDS. ONSHORE WINDS COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AS
THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL
CUMULUS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...AND THE PLUME OF CIRRUS
STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY OFFSHORE.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING
ONSHORE INTO FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN VERY
LOW AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER RAIN-FREE NIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ON THE
COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP LATE...PERHAPS IMPACTING LATE-NIGHT TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AS WELL AS WARM
MID LEVELS THAT KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR INLAND AREAS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT EVEN THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW DEVELOPS AND WHAT ITS INITIAL TRACK WILL BE. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH LOW 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE AND THE FORECAST IS DRY THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC LOW BEING SO
FAR OFFSHORE ACCORDING TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE ATLANTIC LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND
ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO LACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN 24...OR EVEN 12 HOURS AGO. WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD...WELL OFF THE COAST...THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN PUSH BACK
TO THE WEST TOWARD THE COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY. THIS FURTHER EAST
CONSENSUS FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT WOULD ACT TO AT THE
VERY LEAST DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL MAINLY THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A FURTHER OFFSHORE SOLUTION...WHILE THE
NAM IS MUCH STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODEL PHASE ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON MORE TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES. AS
SUCH...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN
THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...IT APPEARS ANY
NOTABLE IMPACTS WILL BE DELAYED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE CURRENT MODELS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER POPS...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND DIMINISHED WINDS.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR
IMPACTS SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH
SURF. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
INLAND THEN ALLOWS IT TO LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF DOES NOT PUSH THE
LOW INLAND AND ACTUALLY LIFTS IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR GROUND FOG AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND...THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE LOW COMES TO THE COAST AND ITS STRENGTH...THERE COULD BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AUGMENTS SYNOPTIC EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS...EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-4 FT
WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS...WINDS
WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AVERAGING LESS THAN 20
KT. SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF THE OFFSHORE LOW
THAT DEVELOPS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHICH RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR A WEAKER AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY AS INCREASING SWELL ENERGY DRIVES SEAS
HIGHER. WINDS WOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES
BACK TO THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND THE LOW.
ALSO OF NOTE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON SOME TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE TO
DEVELOP...AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKELY LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR
THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 051050
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
650 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH
BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS
WERE NEEDED. EXPECT YET ANOTHER DAY FEATURING RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND IN THE LOWER/MID 70S ON THE BEACHES/SEA
ISLANDS. ONSHORE WINDS COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AS
THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL
CUMULUS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...AND THE PLUME OF CIRRUS
STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY OFFSHORE.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING
ONSHORE INTO FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN VERY
LOW AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER RAIN-FREE NIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ON THE
COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP LATE...PERHAPS IMPACTING LATE-NIGHT TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AS WELL AS WARM
MID LEVELS THAT KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR INLAND AREAS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT EVEN THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW DEVELOPS AND WHAT ITS INITIAL TRACK WILL BE. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH LOW 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE AND THE FORECAST IS DRY THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC LOW BEING SO
FAR OFFSHORE ACCORDING TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE ATLANTIC LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND
ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO LACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN 24...OR EVEN 12 HOURS AGO. WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD...WELL OFF THE COAST...THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN PUSH BACK
TO THE WEST TOWARD THE COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY. THIS FURTHER EAST
CONSENSUS FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT WOULD ACT TO AT THE
VERY LEAST DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL MAINLY THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A FURTHER OFFSHORE SOLUTION...WHILE THE
NAM IS MUCH STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODEL PHASE ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON MORE TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES. AS
SUCH...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN
THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...IT APPEARS ANY
NOTABLE IMPACTS WILL BE DELAYED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE CURRENT MODELS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER POPS...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND DIMINISHED WINDS.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR
IMPACTS SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH
SURF. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
INLAND THEN ALLOWS IT TO LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF DOES NOT PUSH THE
LOW INLAND AND ACTUALLY LIFTS IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR GROUND FOG AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND...THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE LOW COMES TO THE COAST AND ITS STRENGTH...THERE COULD BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AUGMENTS SYNOPTIC EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS...EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-4 FT
WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS...WINDS
WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AVERAGING LESS THAN 20
KT. SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF THE OFFSHORE LOW
THAT DEVELOPS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHICH RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR A WEAKER AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY AS INCREASING SWELL ENERGY DRIVES SEAS
HIGHER. WINDS WOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES
BACK TO THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND THE LOW.
ALSO OF NOTE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON SOME TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE TO
DEVELOP...AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKELY LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR
THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 051050
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
650 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH
BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS
WERE NEEDED. EXPECT YET ANOTHER DAY FEATURING RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND IN THE LOWER/MID 70S ON THE BEACHES/SEA
ISLANDS. ONSHORE WINDS COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AS
THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL
CUMULUS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...AND THE PLUME OF CIRRUS
STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY OFFSHORE.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING
ONSHORE INTO FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN VERY
LOW AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER RAIN-FREE NIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ON THE
COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP LATE...PERHAPS IMPACTING LATE-NIGHT TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AS WELL AS WARM
MID LEVELS THAT KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR INLAND AREAS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT EVEN THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW DEVELOPS AND WHAT ITS INITIAL TRACK WILL BE. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH LOW 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE AND THE FORECAST IS DRY THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC LOW BEING SO
FAR OFFSHORE ACCORDING TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE ATLANTIC LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND
ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO LACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN 24...OR EVEN 12 HOURS AGO. WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD...WELL OFF THE COAST...THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN PUSH BACK
TO THE WEST TOWARD THE COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY. THIS FURTHER EAST
CONSENSUS FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT WOULD ACT TO AT THE
VERY LEAST DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL MAINLY THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A FURTHER OFFSHORE SOLUTION...WHILE THE
NAM IS MUCH STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODEL PHASE ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON MORE TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES. AS
SUCH...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN
THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...IT APPEARS ANY
NOTABLE IMPACTS WILL BE DELAYED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE CURRENT MODELS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER POPS...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND DIMINISHED WINDS.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR
IMPACTS SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH
SURF. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
INLAND THEN ALLOWS IT TO LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF DOES NOT PUSH THE
LOW INLAND AND ACTUALLY LIFTS IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR GROUND FOG AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND...THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE LOW COMES TO THE COAST AND ITS STRENGTH...THERE COULD BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AUGMENTS SYNOPTIC EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS...EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-4 FT
WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS...WINDS
WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AVERAGING LESS THAN 20
KT. SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF THE OFFSHORE LOW
THAT DEVELOPS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHICH RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR A WEAKER AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY AS INCREASING SWELL ENERGY DRIVES SEAS
HIGHER. WINDS WOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES
BACK TO THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND THE LOW.
ALSO OF NOTE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON SOME TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE TO
DEVELOP...AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKELY LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR
THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCAE 051038
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
638 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND BE OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING AND THIS FEATURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS REMAINING OFFSHORE. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS IN PLACE
FOR ANOTHER DAY. BOUNDARY LAYERS TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO
MONDAY AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE 1 TO 2
DEGREES HIGHER THAN MONDAY. HAVE STAYED NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE
GUIDANCE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 80S. BY
TONIGHT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS.
GUIDANCE NUMBERS NEARLY IDENTICAL AND CONTINUED TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL DOMINATING THE WEATHER. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEARLY THE SAME WITH
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST MOVES NORTHWARD. FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH A MORE
WESTERLY POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS...CONFIDENCE LEVELS REMAIN LOW ON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING. DUE
TO THIS HAVE KEPT CURRENT POPS TRENDS WITH POPS NO HIGHER THAN
CHANCE FOR SHRA/ISO THUNDER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR FOG STILL COULD AFFECT AGS/OGB THRU 13Z. OTHERWISE HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
HOLD LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND AD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING 5 TO 10 KNOTS
FROM MID-MORNING INTO LATE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE WIND GUSTS TO 18
KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE CROSSES THE TAF SITES.
EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUD BASES 5KFT TO 7KFT.

MVFR/IFR CIGS INDICATED BY THE NAM MODEL AS ONSHORE FLOW ALLOW
STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
OGB/AGS/DNL. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THIS SYSTEM HAS YET TO DEVELOP.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 050805
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
405 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE FORECAST
AREA CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC...WHICH KEEPS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. INCREASED ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT TO SEE SCT-BKN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.  WEAK VORT MAX IN THE VICINITY OF
THE NE MOUNTAINS...WILL COMBINE WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.  GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR.

ATWELL


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM RUN TO RUN BY KEEPING THE FUTURE
COASTAL LOW JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BEFORE PULLING IT OUT TO
SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST
COAST...THE COASTAL LOW WILL HANG AROUND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. THEN AS THE WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE
PLAINS...THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME CAUGHT IN THE UPPER FLOW AND
HEAD OUT TO SEA. BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW USUALLY
BRINGS SUBSIDENCE...IE DRY WEATHER...HOWEVER THE GFS IS STILL
TRYING TO BRING IN SOME MOISTURE...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON CU
DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SCT060 WITH BKN090 POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
WINDS WILL STAY SE WITH 5-7KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  56  83  58 /   5  10   5   0
ATLANTA         80  58  82  58 /   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     78  51  79  56 /  20  20  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    82  55  82  55 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        83  57  83  60 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     81  56  81  59 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           83  54  82  58 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            84  54  83  55 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  81  53  82  57 /   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         83  59  83  61 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATWELL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 050805
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
405 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE FORECAST
AREA CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC...WHICH KEEPS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. INCREASED ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT TO SEE SCT-BKN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.  WEAK VORT MAX IN THE VICINITY OF
THE NE MOUNTAINS...WILL COMBINE WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.  GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR.

ATWELL


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM RUN TO RUN BY KEEPING THE FUTURE
COASTAL LOW JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BEFORE PULLING IT OUT TO
SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST
COAST...THE COASTAL LOW WILL HANG AROUND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. THEN AS THE WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE
PLAINS...THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME CAUGHT IN THE UPPER FLOW AND
HEAD OUT TO SEA. BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW USUALLY
BRINGS SUBSIDENCE...IE DRY WEATHER...HOWEVER THE GFS IS STILL
TRYING TO BRING IN SOME MOISTURE...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON CU
DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SCT060 WITH BKN090 POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
WINDS WILL STAY SE WITH 5-7KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  56  83  58 /   5  10   5   0
ATLANTA         80  58  82  58 /   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     78  51  79  56 /  20  20  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    82  55  82  55 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        83  57  83  60 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     81  56  81  59 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           83  54  82  58 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            84  54  83  55 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  81  53  82  57 /   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         83  59  83  61 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATWELL



000
FXUS62 KCHS 050800
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
400 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH
BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECT YET ANOTHER DAY FEATURING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
IN THE LOWER/MID 70S ON THE BEACHES/SEA ISLANDS. ONSHORE WINDS
COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS
AND PUSHES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED...AND THE PLUME OF CIRRUS STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH
SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY OFFSHORE.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING
ONSHORE INTO FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN VERY LOW AS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER RAIN-FREE NIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ON THE
COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP LATE...PERHAPS IMPACTING LATE-NIGHT TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AS WELL AS WARM
MID LEVELS THAT KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR INLAND AREAS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT EVEN THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW DEVELOPS AND WHAT ITS INITIAL TRACK WILL BE. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH LOW 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE AND THE FORECAST IS DRY THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC LOW BEING SO
FAR OFFSHORE ACCORDING TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE ATLANTIC LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND
ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO LACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN 24...OR EVEN 12 HOURS AGO. WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD...WELL OFF THE COAST...THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN PUSH BACK
TO THE WEST TOWARD THE COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY. THIS FURTHER EAST
CONSENSUS FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT WOULD ACT TO AT THE
VERY LEAST DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL MAINLY THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A FURTHER OFFSHORE SOLUTION...WHILE THE
NAM IS MUCH STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODEL PHASE ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON MORE TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES. AS
SUCH...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN
THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...IT APPEARS ANY
NOTABLE IMPACTS WILL BE DELAYED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE CURRENT MODELS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER POPS...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND DIMINISHED WINDS.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR
IMPACTS SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH
SURF. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
INLAND THEN ALLOWS IT TO LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF DOES NOT PUSH THE
LOW INLAND AND ACTUALLY LIFTS IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
IN GROUND FOG THIS MORNING AND AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND...THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE LOW COMES TO THE COAST AND ITS STRENGTH...THERE COULD BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AUGMENTS SYNOPTIC EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS...EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-4 FT
WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS...WINDS
WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AVERAGING LESS THAN 20
KT. SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF THE OFFSHORE LOW
THAT DEVELOPS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHICH RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR A WEAKER AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY AS INCREASING SWELL ENERGY DRIVES SEAS
HIGHER. WINDS WOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES
BACK TO THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND THE LOW.
ALSO OF NOTE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON SOME TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE TO
DEVELOP...AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKELY LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR
THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 050800
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
400 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH
BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECT YET ANOTHER DAY FEATURING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
IN THE LOWER/MID 70S ON THE BEACHES/SEA ISLANDS. ONSHORE WINDS
COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS
AND PUSHES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED...AND THE PLUME OF CIRRUS STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH
SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY OFFSHORE.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING
ONSHORE INTO FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN VERY LOW AS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER RAIN-FREE NIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ON THE
COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP LATE...PERHAPS IMPACTING LATE-NIGHT TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AS WELL AS WARM
MID LEVELS THAT KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR INLAND AREAS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT EVEN THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW DEVELOPS AND WHAT ITS INITIAL TRACK WILL BE. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH LOW 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE AND THE FORECAST IS DRY THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC LOW BEING SO
FAR OFFSHORE ACCORDING TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE ATLANTIC LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND
ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO LACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN 24...OR EVEN 12 HOURS AGO. WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD...WELL OFF THE COAST...THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN PUSH BACK
TO THE WEST TOWARD THE COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY. THIS FURTHER EAST
CONSENSUS FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT WOULD ACT TO AT THE
VERY LEAST DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL MAINLY THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A FURTHER OFFSHORE SOLUTION...WHILE THE
NAM IS MUCH STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODEL PHASE ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON MORE TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES. AS
SUCH...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN
THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...IT APPEARS ANY
NOTABLE IMPACTS WILL BE DELAYED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE CURRENT MODELS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER POPS...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND DIMINISHED WINDS.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR
IMPACTS SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH
SURF. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
INLAND THEN ALLOWS IT TO LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF DOES NOT PUSH THE
LOW INLAND AND ACTUALLY LIFTS IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
IN GROUND FOG THIS MORNING AND AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND...THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE LOW COMES TO THE COAST AND ITS STRENGTH...THERE COULD BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AUGMENTS SYNOPTIC EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS...EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-4 FT
WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS...WINDS
WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AVERAGING LESS THAN 20
KT. SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF THE OFFSHORE LOW
THAT DEVELOPS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHICH RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR A WEAKER AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY AS INCREASING SWELL ENERGY DRIVES SEAS
HIGHER. WINDS WOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES
BACK TO THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND THE LOW.
ALSO OF NOTE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON SOME TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE TO
DEVELOP...AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKELY LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR
THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCAE 050754
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
354 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND BE OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING AND THIS FEATURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS REMAINING OFFSHORE. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS IN PLACE
FOR ANOTHER DAY. BOUNDARY LAYERS TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO
MONDAY AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE 1 TO 2
DEGREES HIGHER THAN MONDAY. HAVE STAYED NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE
GUIDANCE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 80S. BY
TONIGHT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS.
GUIDANCE NUMBERS NEARLY IDENTICAL AND CONTINUED TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL DOMINATING THE WEATHER. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEARLY THE SAME WITH
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST MOVES NORTHWARD. FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH A MORE
WESTERLY POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS...CONFIDENCE LEVELS REMAIN LOW ON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING. DUE
TO THIS HAVE KEPT CURRENT POPS TRENDS WITH POPS NO HIGHER THAN
CHANCE FOR SHRA/ISO THUNDER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. OTHERWISE HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
HOLD LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WIND BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY MIDDAY.
COULD SEE WIND GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE CROSSES THE TAF SITES. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUD BASES 5KFT TO
7KFT.

MVFR/IFR CIGS INDICATED BY THE NAM MODEL AS ONSHORE FLOW ALLOW
STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THIS SYSTEM HAS YET TO DEVELOP.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 050754
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
354 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND BE OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING AND THIS FEATURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS REMAINING OFFSHORE. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS IN PLACE
FOR ANOTHER DAY. BOUNDARY LAYERS TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO
MONDAY AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE 1 TO 2
DEGREES HIGHER THAN MONDAY. HAVE STAYED NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE
GUIDANCE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 80S. BY
TONIGHT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS.
GUIDANCE NUMBERS NEARLY IDENTICAL AND CONTINUED TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL DOMINATING THE WEATHER. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEARLY THE SAME WITH
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST MOVES NORTHWARD. FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH A MORE
WESTERLY POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS...CONFIDENCE LEVELS REMAIN LOW ON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING. DUE
TO THIS HAVE KEPT CURRENT POPS TRENDS WITH POPS NO HIGHER THAN
CHANCE FOR SHRA/ISO THUNDER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. OTHERWISE HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
HOLD LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WIND BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY MIDDAY.
COULD SEE WIND GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE CROSSES THE TAF SITES. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUD BASES 5KFT TO
7KFT.

MVFR/IFR CIGS INDICATED BY THE NAM MODEL AS ONSHORE FLOW ALLOW
STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THIS SYSTEM HAS YET TO DEVELOP.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 050754
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
354 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND BE OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING AND THIS FEATURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS REMAINING OFFSHORE. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS IN PLACE
FOR ANOTHER DAY. BOUNDARY LAYERS TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO
MONDAY AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE 1 TO 2
DEGREES HIGHER THAN MONDAY. HAVE STAYED NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE
GUIDANCE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 80S. BY
TONIGHT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS.
GUIDANCE NUMBERS NEARLY IDENTICAL AND CONTINUED TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL DOMINATING THE WEATHER. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEARLY THE SAME WITH
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST MOVES NORTHWARD. FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH A MORE
WESTERLY POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS...CONFIDENCE LEVELS REMAIN LOW ON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING. DUE
TO THIS HAVE KEPT CURRENT POPS TRENDS WITH POPS NO HIGHER THAN
CHANCE FOR SHRA/ISO THUNDER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. OTHERWISE HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
HOLD LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WIND BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY MIDDAY.
COULD SEE WIND GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE CROSSES THE TAF SITES. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUD BASES 5KFT TO
7KFT.

MVFR/IFR CIGS INDICATED BY THE NAM MODEL AS ONSHORE FLOW ALLOW
STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THIS SYSTEM HAS YET TO DEVELOP.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 050754
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
354 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND BE OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING AND THIS FEATURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS REMAINING OFFSHORE. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS IN PLACE
FOR ANOTHER DAY. BOUNDARY LAYERS TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO
MONDAY AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE 1 TO 2
DEGREES HIGHER THAN MONDAY. HAVE STAYED NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE
GUIDANCE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 80S. BY
TONIGHT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS.
GUIDANCE NUMBERS NEARLY IDENTICAL AND CONTINUED TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL DOMINATING THE WEATHER. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEARLY THE SAME WITH
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST MOVES NORTHWARD. FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH A MORE
WESTERLY POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS...CONFIDENCE LEVELS REMAIN LOW ON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING. DUE
TO THIS HAVE KEPT CURRENT POPS TRENDS WITH POPS NO HIGHER THAN
CHANCE FOR SHRA/ISO THUNDER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. OTHERWISE HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
HOLD LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WIND BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY MIDDAY.
COULD SEE WIND GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE CROSSES THE TAF SITES. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUD BASES 5KFT TO
7KFT.

MVFR/IFR CIGS INDICATED BY THE NAM MODEL AS ONSHORE FLOW ALLOW
STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THIS SYSTEM HAS YET TO DEVELOP.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 050638
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
238 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM
MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING LIGHT WINDS AND DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER
DAY. WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AND A WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT
DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
HOURS. WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING SLIGHTLY EXPECT WINDS TO BE
EASTERLY AROUND 8 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST MOVES NORTHWARD. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MODELS
ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH A MORE WESTERLY POSITION OF
THE SURFACE LOW...CONFIDENCE LEVELS KEEP CURRENT POPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THE CWA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE AREA ALONG WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. OTHERWISE HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
HOLD LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WIND BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY MIDDAY.
COULD SEE WIND GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE CROSSES THE TAF SITES. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUD BASES 5KFT TO
7KFT.

MVFR/IFR CIGS INDICATED BY THE NAM MODEL AS ONSHORE FLOW ALLOW
STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THIS SYSTEM HAS YET TO DEVELOP.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 050638
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
238 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM
MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING LIGHT WINDS AND DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER
DAY. WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AND A WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT
DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
HOURS. WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING SLIGHTLY EXPECT WINDS TO BE
EASTERLY AROUND 8 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST MOVES NORTHWARD. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MODELS
ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH A MORE WESTERLY POSITION OF
THE SURFACE LOW...CONFIDENCE LEVELS KEEP CURRENT POPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THE CWA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE AREA ALONG WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. OTHERWISE HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
HOLD LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WIND BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY MIDDAY.
COULD SEE WIND GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE CROSSES THE TAF SITES. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUD BASES 5KFT TO
7KFT.

MVFR/IFR CIGS INDICATED BY THE NAM MODEL AS ONSHORE FLOW ALLOW
STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THIS SYSTEM HAS YET TO DEVELOP.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 050638
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
238 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM
MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING LIGHT WINDS AND DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER
DAY. WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AND A WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT
DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
HOURS. WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING SLIGHTLY EXPECT WINDS TO BE
EASTERLY AROUND 8 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST MOVES NORTHWARD. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MODELS
ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH A MORE WESTERLY POSITION OF
THE SURFACE LOW...CONFIDENCE LEVELS KEEP CURRENT POPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THE CWA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE AREA ALONG WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. OTHERWISE HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
HOLD LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WIND BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY MIDDAY.
COULD SEE WIND GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE CROSSES THE TAF SITES. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUD BASES 5KFT TO
7KFT.

MVFR/IFR CIGS INDICATED BY THE NAM MODEL AS ONSHORE FLOW ALLOW
STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THIS SYSTEM HAS YET TO DEVELOP.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 050556
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
156 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS NEEDED...JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
TEMP/DEW AND SKY GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE SE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL
BROKEN CU TUESDAY AFTERNOON... SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO GREATLY SUPPRESS ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE... WILL SHOW NIL POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTH GA MOUNTAINS WHERE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING MAX HEATING ON TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT... UNDER CLEARING SKIES... WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 50S
EACH NIGHT. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUE SUBSIDENCE WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT IS BEING PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THE LATEST RUN OF
THE ECMWF STILL KEEPS THIS MAIN LOW CENTER OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BEFORE MOVING NE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
STILL BRINGING THIS LOW CENTER INLAND FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
WEAKENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NE. THIS HUGE
DIFFERENCE IN POSITIONING BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS WILL MEAN QUITE
A BIT OF PRECIP FOR GA OR NOTHING AT ALL. AM LEANING TOWARD THE
ECMWF POSITIONING AS IT SEAM TO KEEP THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
LONGER WHICH WOULD KEEP THIS SYSTEM OFF SHORE. THE GFS IS
NOTORIOUS FOR WEAKENING RIDGES TO FAST WHICH WOULD ALSO EXPLAIN
WHY IT WANTS TO PULL THIS SYSTEM ONSHORE. DECIDED TO KEEP THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
IS STILL 4 DAYS AWAY AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT
SCT060 WITH BKN090 POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY SE
WITH 5-7KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  56  82  58 /   5  10   5   5
ATLANTA         81  60  82  59 /   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     78  55  80  54 /  20  20  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    83  55  84  56 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        83  57  84  59 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     81  58  82  59 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           84  54  84  57 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            84  55  84  56 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  82  54  83  55 /   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         84  57  82  61 /   5   5   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATWELL



000
FXUS62 KFFC 050556
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
156 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS NEEDED...JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
TEMP/DEW AND SKY GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE SE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL
BROKEN CU TUESDAY AFTERNOON... SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO GREATLY SUPPRESS ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE... WILL SHOW NIL POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTH GA MOUNTAINS WHERE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING MAX HEATING ON TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT... UNDER CLEARING SKIES... WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 50S
EACH NIGHT. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUE SUBSIDENCE WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT IS BEING PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THE LATEST RUN OF
THE ECMWF STILL KEEPS THIS MAIN LOW CENTER OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BEFORE MOVING NE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
STILL BRINGING THIS LOW CENTER INLAND FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
WEAKENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NE. THIS HUGE
DIFFERENCE IN POSITIONING BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS WILL MEAN QUITE
A BIT OF PRECIP FOR GA OR NOTHING AT ALL. AM LEANING TOWARD THE
ECMWF POSITIONING AS IT SEAM TO KEEP THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
LONGER WHICH WOULD KEEP THIS SYSTEM OFF SHORE. THE GFS IS
NOTORIOUS FOR WEAKENING RIDGES TO FAST WHICH WOULD ALSO EXPLAIN
WHY IT WANTS TO PULL THIS SYSTEM ONSHORE. DECIDED TO KEEP THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
IS STILL 4 DAYS AWAY AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT
SCT060 WITH BKN090 POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY SE
WITH 5-7KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  56  82  58 /   5  10   5   5
ATLANTA         81  60  82  59 /   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     78  55  80  54 /  20  20  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    83  55  84  56 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        83  57  84  59 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     81  58  82  59 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           84  54  84  57 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            84  55  84  56 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  82  54  83  55 /   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         84  57  82  61 /   5   5   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATWELL



000
FXUS62 KFFC 050556
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
156 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS NEEDED...JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
TEMP/DEW AND SKY GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE SE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL
BROKEN CU TUESDAY AFTERNOON... SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO GREATLY SUPPRESS ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE... WILL SHOW NIL POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTH GA MOUNTAINS WHERE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING MAX HEATING ON TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT... UNDER CLEARING SKIES... WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 50S
EACH NIGHT. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUE SUBSIDENCE WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT IS BEING PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THE LATEST RUN OF
THE ECMWF STILL KEEPS THIS MAIN LOW CENTER OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BEFORE MOVING NE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
STILL BRINGING THIS LOW CENTER INLAND FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
WEAKENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NE. THIS HUGE
DIFFERENCE IN POSITIONING BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS WILL MEAN QUITE
A BIT OF PRECIP FOR GA OR NOTHING AT ALL. AM LEANING TOWARD THE
ECMWF POSITIONING AS IT SEAM TO KEEP THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
LONGER WHICH WOULD KEEP THIS SYSTEM OFF SHORE. THE GFS IS
NOTORIOUS FOR WEAKENING RIDGES TO FAST WHICH WOULD ALSO EXPLAIN
WHY IT WANTS TO PULL THIS SYSTEM ONSHORE. DECIDED TO KEEP THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
IS STILL 4 DAYS AWAY AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT
SCT060 WITH BKN090 POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY SE
WITH 5-7KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  56  82  58 /   5  10   5   5
ATLANTA         81  60  82  59 /   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     78  55  80  54 /  20  20  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    83  55  84  56 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        83  57  84  59 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     81  58  82  59 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           84  54  84  57 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            84  55  84  56 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  82  54  83  55 /   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         84  57  82  61 /   5   5   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATWELL



000
FXUS62 KFFC 050556
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
156 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS NEEDED...JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
TEMP/DEW AND SKY GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE SE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL
BROKEN CU TUESDAY AFTERNOON... SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO GREATLY SUPPRESS ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE... WILL SHOW NIL POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTH GA MOUNTAINS WHERE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING MAX HEATING ON TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT... UNDER CLEARING SKIES... WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 50S
EACH NIGHT. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUE SUBSIDENCE WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT IS BEING PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THE LATEST RUN OF
THE ECMWF STILL KEEPS THIS MAIN LOW CENTER OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BEFORE MOVING NE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
STILL BRINGING THIS LOW CENTER INLAND FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
WEAKENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NE. THIS HUGE
DIFFERENCE IN POSITIONING BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS WILL MEAN QUITE
A BIT OF PRECIP FOR GA OR NOTHING AT ALL. AM LEANING TOWARD THE
ECMWF POSITIONING AS IT SEAM TO KEEP THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
LONGER WHICH WOULD KEEP THIS SYSTEM OFF SHORE. THE GFS IS
NOTORIOUS FOR WEAKENING RIDGES TO FAST WHICH WOULD ALSO EXPLAIN
WHY IT WANTS TO PULL THIS SYSTEM ONSHORE. DECIDED TO KEEP THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
IS STILL 4 DAYS AWAY AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT
SCT060 WITH BKN090 POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY SE
WITH 5-7KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  56  82  58 /   5  10   5   5
ATLANTA         81  60  82  59 /   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     78  55  80  54 /  20  20  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    83  55  84  56 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        83  57  84  59 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     81  58  82  59 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           84  54  84  57 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            84  55  84  56 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  82  54  83  55 /   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         84  57  82  61 /   5   5   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATWELL



000
FXUS62 KCAE 050539
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
139 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM
MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING LIGHT WINDS AND DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER
DAY. WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AND A WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT
DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
HOURS. WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING SLIGHTLY EXPECT WINDS TO BE
EASTERLY AROUND 8 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST MOVES NORTHWARD. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MODELS
ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH A MORE WESTERLY POSITION OF
THE SURFACE LOW...CONFIDENCE LEVELS KEEP CURRENT POPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THE CWA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE AREA ALONG WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN 05/08Z AND 05/12Z. OTHERWISE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING  INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
HOLD A LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND WIND ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY
MIDDAY. COULD SEE SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE CROSSES THE TAF SITES.  GIVEN ONSHORE
FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD
BASES 5KFT TO 7KFT.

MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 050539
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
139 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM
MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING LIGHT WINDS AND DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER
DAY. WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AND A WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT
DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
HOURS. WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING SLIGHTLY EXPECT WINDS TO BE
EASTERLY AROUND 8 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST MOVES NORTHWARD. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MODELS
ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH A MORE WESTERLY POSITION OF
THE SURFACE LOW...CONFIDENCE LEVELS KEEP CURRENT POPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THE CWA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE AREA ALONG WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN 05/08Z AND 05/12Z. OTHERWISE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING  INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
HOLD A LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND WIND ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY
MIDDAY. COULD SEE SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE CROSSES THE TAF SITES.  GIVEN ONSHORE
FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD
BASES 5KFT TO 7KFT.

MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 050539
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
139 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM
MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING LIGHT WINDS AND DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER
DAY. WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AND A WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT
DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
HOURS. WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING SLIGHTLY EXPECT WINDS TO BE
EASTERLY AROUND 8 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST MOVES NORTHWARD. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MODELS
ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH A MORE WESTERLY POSITION OF
THE SURFACE LOW...CONFIDENCE LEVELS KEEP CURRENT POPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THE CWA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE AREA ALONG WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN 05/08Z AND 05/12Z. OTHERWISE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING  INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
HOLD A LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND WIND ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY
MIDDAY. COULD SEE SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE CROSSES THE TAF SITES.  GIVEN ONSHORE
FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD
BASES 5KFT TO 7KFT.

MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCHS 050509
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
109 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND REQUIRED FEW ADJUSTMENTS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST OVERNIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS
ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A PLUME OF HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH...BUT THICKEST CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE. A MODERATING AIR MASS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
A BIT MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DESPITE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND...TO LOW/MID 60S AT THE COAST WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...EXPECT A SUMMERTIME LIKE PATTERN WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MOST
AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DRIFTING ONSHORE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID
60S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME
WILL DEAL WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS
OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...BUT NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTS NORTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AT THIS TIME...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INDICATED A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF A TROPICAL VS SUBTROPICAL
STORM...THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM SUCH SYSTEM WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SHOULD THE TRACK BE MORE
EAST...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS
WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTH. SHOULD THE TRACK
OF THE LOW BE MORE WEST...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INCREASED WINDS WILL EXIST. GIVEN A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD CONSENSUS
FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AND MAINTAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...AROUND
80 INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THERE ARE STILL
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. DUE TO A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE 06Z
TAF PERIOD. A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...BUT NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. GUSTY E-SE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT
THE TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...AN EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ONSHORE WINDS 10-15
KT...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-4 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL REVOLVE AROUND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. MARINE IMPACTS WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON
THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL BUILD DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEST...AND FURTHER TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR THE COAST.
INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 050509
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
109 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND REQUIRED FEW ADJUSTMENTS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST OVERNIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS
ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A PLUME OF HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH...BUT THICKEST CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE. A MODERATING AIR MASS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
A BIT MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DESPITE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND...TO LOW/MID 60S AT THE COAST WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...EXPECT A SUMMERTIME LIKE PATTERN WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MOST
AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DRIFTING ONSHORE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID
60S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME
WILL DEAL WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS
OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...BUT NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTS NORTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AT THIS TIME...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INDICATED A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF A TROPICAL VS SUBTROPICAL
STORM...THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM SUCH SYSTEM WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SHOULD THE TRACK BE MORE
EAST...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS
WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTH. SHOULD THE TRACK
OF THE LOW BE MORE WEST...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INCREASED WINDS WILL EXIST. GIVEN A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD CONSENSUS
FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AND MAINTAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...AROUND
80 INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THERE ARE STILL
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. DUE TO A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE 06Z
TAF PERIOD. A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...BUT NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. GUSTY E-SE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT
THE TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...AN EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ONSHORE WINDS 10-15
KT...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-4 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL REVOLVE AROUND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. MARINE IMPACTS WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON
THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL BUILD DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEST...AND FURTHER TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR THE COAST.
INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR



000
FXUS62 KCHS 050229
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1029 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS
ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME
THIN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...BUT SKIES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLEAR. A MODERATING AIR MASS WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DESPITE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INLAND...TO LOW/MID 60S AT THE COAST WHERE
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...EXPECT A SUMMERTIME LIKE PATTERN WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MOST
AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DRIFTING ONSHORE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID
60S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME
WILL DEAL WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS
OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...BUT NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTS NORTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AT THIS TIME...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INDICATED A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF A TROPICAL VS SUBTROPICAL
STORM...THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM SUCH SYSTEM WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SHOULD THE TRACK BE MORE
EAST...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS
WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTH. SHOULD THE TRACK
OF THE LOW BE MORE WEST...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INCREASED WINDS WILL EXIST. GIVEN A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD CONSENSUS
FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AND MAINTAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...AROUND
80 INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THERE ARE STILL
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. DUE TO A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...BUT NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. GUSTY E-SE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT
THE TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL REVOLVE AROUND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. MARINE IMPACTS WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON
THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL BUILD DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEST...AND FURTHER TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR THE COAST.
INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ/ECT
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/DPB
MARINE...ECT/DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 050229
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1029 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS
ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME
THIN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...BUT SKIES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLEAR. A MODERATING AIR MASS WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DESPITE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INLAND...TO LOW/MID 60S AT THE COAST WHERE
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...EXPECT A SUMMERTIME LIKE PATTERN WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MOST
AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DRIFTING ONSHORE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID
60S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME
WILL DEAL WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS
OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...BUT NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTS NORTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AT THIS TIME...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INDICATED A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF A TROPICAL VS SUBTROPICAL
STORM...THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM SUCH SYSTEM WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SHOULD THE TRACK BE MORE
EAST...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS
WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTH. SHOULD THE TRACK
OF THE LOW BE MORE WEST...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INCREASED WINDS WILL EXIST. GIVEN A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD CONSENSUS
FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AND MAINTAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...AROUND
80 INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THERE ARE STILL
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. DUE TO A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...BUT NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. GUSTY E-SE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT
THE TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL REVOLVE AROUND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. MARINE IMPACTS WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON
THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL BUILD DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEST...AND FURTHER TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR THE COAST.
INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ/ECT
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/DPB
MARINE...ECT/DPB



000
FXUS62 KCHS 050229
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1029 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS
ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME
THIN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...BUT SKIES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLEAR. A MODERATING AIR MASS WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DESPITE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INLAND...TO LOW/MID 60S AT THE COAST WHERE
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...EXPECT A SUMMERTIME LIKE PATTERN WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MOST
AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DRIFTING ONSHORE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID
60S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME
WILL DEAL WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS
OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...BUT NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTS NORTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AT THIS TIME...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INDICATED A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF A TROPICAL VS SUBTROPICAL
STORM...THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM SUCH SYSTEM WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SHOULD THE TRACK BE MORE
EAST...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS
WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTH. SHOULD THE TRACK
OF THE LOW BE MORE WEST...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INCREASED WINDS WILL EXIST. GIVEN A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD CONSENSUS
FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AND MAINTAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...AROUND
80 INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THERE ARE STILL
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. DUE TO A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...BUT NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. GUSTY E-SE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT
THE TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL REVOLVE AROUND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. MARINE IMPACTS WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON
THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL BUILD DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEST...AND FURTHER TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR THE COAST.
INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ/ECT
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/DPB
MARINE...ECT/DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 050229
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1029 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS
ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME
THIN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...BUT SKIES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLEAR. A MODERATING AIR MASS WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DESPITE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INLAND...TO LOW/MID 60S AT THE COAST WHERE
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...EXPECT A SUMMERTIME LIKE PATTERN WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MOST
AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DRIFTING ONSHORE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID
60S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME
WILL DEAL WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS
OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...BUT NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTS NORTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AT THIS TIME...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INDICATED A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF A TROPICAL VS SUBTROPICAL
STORM...THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM SUCH SYSTEM WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SHOULD THE TRACK BE MORE
EAST...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS
WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTH. SHOULD THE TRACK
OF THE LOW BE MORE WEST...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INCREASED WINDS WILL EXIST. GIVEN A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD CONSENSUS
FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AND MAINTAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...AROUND
80 INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THERE ARE STILL
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. DUE TO A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...BUT NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. GUSTY E-SE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT
THE TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL REVOLVE AROUND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. MARINE IMPACTS WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON
THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL BUILD DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEST...AND FURTHER TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR THE COAST.
INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ/ECT
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/DPB
MARINE...ECT/DPB



000
FXUS62 KCAE 050122
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
922 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM
MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO HELP PRODUCE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING LIGHT WINDS AND DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER
DAY. WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AND A WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT
DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
HOURS. WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING SLIGHTLY EXPECT WINDS TO BE
EASTERLY AROUND 8 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST MOVES NORTHWARD. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MODELS
ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH A MORE WESTERLY POSITION OF
THE SURFACE LOW...CONFIDENCE LEVELS KEEP CURRENT POPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THE CWA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE AREA ALONG WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND RIDGE
WESTWARD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR INDICATES
TWO SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES HAVE MOVED WESTWARD THROUGH THE TAF
SITES. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS 10 KTS OR LESS.  THE DRY AIRMASS RESIDING OVER
THE REGION WILL KEEP FOG POTENTIAL LOW...HOWEVER SOME PATCHY FOG
NEAR AGS/OGB BETWEEN 05/08Z AND 05/12Z WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...








000
FXUS62 KCAE 050122
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
922 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM
MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO HELP PRODUCE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING LIGHT WINDS AND DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER
DAY. WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AND A WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT
DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
HOURS. WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING SLIGHTLY EXPECT WINDS TO BE
EASTERLY AROUND 8 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST MOVES NORTHWARD. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MODELS
ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH A MORE WESTERLY POSITION OF
THE SURFACE LOW...CONFIDENCE LEVELS KEEP CURRENT POPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THE CWA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE AREA ALONG WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND RIDGE
WESTWARD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR INDICATES
TWO SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES HAVE MOVED WESTWARD THROUGH THE TAF
SITES. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS 10 KTS OR LESS.  THE DRY AIRMASS RESIDING OVER
THE REGION WILL KEEP FOG POTENTIAL LOW...HOWEVER SOME PATCHY FOG
NEAR AGS/OGB BETWEEN 05/08Z AND 05/12Z WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...









000
FXUS62 KFFC 050119
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
919 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015



.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS NEEDED...JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
TEMP/DEW AND SKY GRIDS.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE SE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL
BROKEN CU TUESDAY AFTERNOON... SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO GREATLY SUPPRESS ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE... WILL SHOW NIL POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTH GA MOUNTAINS WHERE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING MAX HEATING ON TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT... UNDER CLEARING SKIES... WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 50S
EACH NIGHT. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUE SUBSIDENCE WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT IS BEING PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THE LATEST RUN OF
THE ECMWF STILL KEEPS THIS MAIN LOW CENTER OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BEFORE MOVING NE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
STILL BRINGING THIS LOW CENTER INLAND FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
WEAKENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NE. THIS HUGE
DIFFERENCE IN POSITIONING BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS WILL MEAN QUITE
A BIT OF PRECIP FOR GA OR NOTHING AT ALL. AM LEANING TOWARD THE
ECMWF POSITIONING AS IT SEAM TO KEEP THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
LONGER WHICH WOULD KEEP THIS SYSTEM OFF SHORE. THE GFS IS
NOTORIOUS FOR WEAKENING RIDGES TO FAST WHICH WOULD ALSO EXPLAIN
WHY IT WANTS TO PULL THIS SYSTEM ONSHORE. DECIDED TO KEEP THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
IS STILL 4 DAYS AWAY AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

01

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CIG OR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME OF THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE PRODUCING A LLJ OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 20KT AND 30KT. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 00Z
SOUNDINGS BEFORE ADDING LLWS TO THE TAFS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  82  56  82 /   5   5  10   5
ATLANTA         59  81  60  82 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     53  78  55  80 /   0  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    57  83  55  84 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        56  83  57  84 /   0   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     58  81  58  82 /   0   5   5   5
MACON           53  84  54  84 /   0   5   5   5
ROME            56  84  55  84 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  82  54  83 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         57  84  57  82 /   0   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KFFC 050119
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
919 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015



.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS NEEDED...JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
TEMP/DEW AND SKY GRIDS.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE SE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL
BROKEN CU TUESDAY AFTERNOON... SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO GREATLY SUPPRESS ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE... WILL SHOW NIL POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTH GA MOUNTAINS WHERE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING MAX HEATING ON TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT... UNDER CLEARING SKIES... WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 50S
EACH NIGHT. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUE SUBSIDENCE WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT IS BEING PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THE LATEST RUN OF
THE ECMWF STILL KEEPS THIS MAIN LOW CENTER OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BEFORE MOVING NE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
STILL BRINGING THIS LOW CENTER INLAND FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
WEAKENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NE. THIS HUGE
DIFFERENCE IN POSITIONING BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS WILL MEAN QUITE
A BIT OF PRECIP FOR GA OR NOTHING AT ALL. AM LEANING TOWARD THE
ECMWF POSITIONING AS IT SEAM TO KEEP THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
LONGER WHICH WOULD KEEP THIS SYSTEM OFF SHORE. THE GFS IS
NOTORIOUS FOR WEAKENING RIDGES TO FAST WHICH WOULD ALSO EXPLAIN
WHY IT WANTS TO PULL THIS SYSTEM ONSHORE. DECIDED TO KEEP THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
IS STILL 4 DAYS AWAY AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

01

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CIG OR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME OF THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE PRODUCING A LLJ OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 20KT AND 30KT. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 00Z
SOUNDINGS BEFORE ADDING LLWS TO THE TAFS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  82  56  82 /   5   5  10   5
ATLANTA         59  81  60  82 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     53  78  55  80 /   0  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    57  83  55  84 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        56  83  57  84 /   0   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     58  81  58  82 /   0   5   5   5
MACON           53  84  54  84 /   0   5   5   5
ROME            56  84  55  84 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  82  54  83 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         57  84  57  82 /   0   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 042341
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
741 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY STENGTHENS
ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LINGERING
CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...GENERALLY LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
A MODERATING AIR MASS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE MILD
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DESPITE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND...TO LOW/MID 60S AT THE COAST WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...EXPECT A SUMMERTIME LIKE PATTERN WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MOST
AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DRIFTING ONSHORE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID
60S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME
WILL DEAL WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS
OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...BUT NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTS NORTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AT THIS TIME...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INDICATED A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF A TROPICAL VS SUBTROPICAL
STORM...THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM SUCH SYSTEM WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SHOULD THE TRACK BE MORE
EAST...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS
WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTH. SHOULD THE TRACK
OF THE LOW BE MORE WEST...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INCREASED WINDS WILL EXIST. GIVEN A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD CONSENSUS
FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AND MAINTAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...AROUND
80 INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THERE ARE STILL
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. DUE TO A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...BUT NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. GUSTY E-SE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT
THE TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL REVOLVE AROUND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. MARINE IMPACTS WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON
THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL BUILD DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEST...AND FURTHER TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR THE COAST.
INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ/ECT
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/DPB
MARINE...ECT/DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 042341
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
741 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY STENGTHENS
ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LINGERING
CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...GENERALLY LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
A MODERATING AIR MASS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE MILD
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DESPITE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND...TO LOW/MID 60S AT THE COAST WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...EXPECT A SUMMERTIME LIKE PATTERN WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MOST
AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DRIFTING ONSHORE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID
60S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME
WILL DEAL WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS
OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...BUT NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTS NORTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AT THIS TIME...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INDICATED A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF A TROPICAL VS SUBTROPICAL
STORM...THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM SUCH SYSTEM WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SHOULD THE TRACK BE MORE
EAST...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS
WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTH. SHOULD THE TRACK
OF THE LOW BE MORE WEST...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INCREASED WINDS WILL EXIST. GIVEN A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD CONSENSUS
FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AND MAINTAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...AROUND
80 INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THERE ARE STILL
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. DUE TO A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...BUT NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. GUSTY E-SE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT
THE TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL REVOLVE AROUND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. MARINE IMPACTS WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON
THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL BUILD DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEST...AND FURTHER TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR THE COAST.
INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ/ECT
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/DPB
MARINE...ECT/DPB



000
FXUS62 KFFC 042326
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
726 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE SE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL
BROKEN CU TUESDAY AFTERNOON... SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO GREATLY SUPPRESS ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE... WILL SHOW NIL POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTH GA MOUNTAINS WHERE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING MAX HEATING ON TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT... UNDER CLEARING SKIES... WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 50S
EACH NIGHT. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUE SUBSIDENCE WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT IS BEING PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THE LATEST RUN OF
THE ECMWF STILL KEEPS THIS MAIN LOW CENTER OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BEFORE MOVING NE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
STILL BRINGING THIS LOW CENTER INLAND FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
WEAKENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NE. THIS HUGE
DIFFERENCE IN POSITIONING BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS WILL MEAN QUITE
A BIT OF PRECIP FOR GA OR NOTHING AT ALL. AM LEANING TOWARD THE
ECMWF POSITIONING AS IT SEAM TO KEEP THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
LONGER WHICH WOULD KEEP THIS SYSTEM OFF SHORE. THE GFS IS
NOTORIOUS FOR WEAKENING RIDGES TO FAST WHICH WOULD ALSO EXPLAIN
WHY IT WANTS TO PULL THIS SYSTEM ONSHORE. DECIDED TO KEEP THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
IS STILL 4 DAYS AWAY AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

01



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CIG OR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME OF THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE PRODUCING A LLJ OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 20KT AND 30KT. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 00Z
SOUNDINGS BEFORE ADDING LLWS TO THE TAFS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  82  56  82 /   5   5  10   5
ATLANTA         59  81  60  82 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     53  78  55  80 /   0  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    57  83  55  84 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        56  83  57  84 /   0   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     58  81  58  82 /   0   5   5   5
MACON           53  84  54  84 /   0   5   5   5
ROME            56  84  55  84 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  82  54  83 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         57  84  57  82 /   0   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS62 KFFC 042326
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
726 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE SE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL
BROKEN CU TUESDAY AFTERNOON... SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO GREATLY SUPPRESS ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE... WILL SHOW NIL POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTH GA MOUNTAINS WHERE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING MAX HEATING ON TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT... UNDER CLEARING SKIES... WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 50S
EACH NIGHT. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUE SUBSIDENCE WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT IS BEING PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THE LATEST RUN OF
THE ECMWF STILL KEEPS THIS MAIN LOW CENTER OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BEFORE MOVING NE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
STILL BRINGING THIS LOW CENTER INLAND FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
WEAKENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NE. THIS HUGE
DIFFERENCE IN POSITIONING BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS WILL MEAN QUITE
A BIT OF PRECIP FOR GA OR NOTHING AT ALL. AM LEANING TOWARD THE
ECMWF POSITIONING AS IT SEAM TO KEEP THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
LONGER WHICH WOULD KEEP THIS SYSTEM OFF SHORE. THE GFS IS
NOTORIOUS FOR WEAKENING RIDGES TO FAST WHICH WOULD ALSO EXPLAIN
WHY IT WANTS TO PULL THIS SYSTEM ONSHORE. DECIDED TO KEEP THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
IS STILL 4 DAYS AWAY AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

01



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CIG OR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME OF THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE PRODUCING A LLJ OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 20KT AND 30KT. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 00Z
SOUNDINGS BEFORE ADDING LLWS TO THE TAFS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  82  56  82 /   5   5  10   5
ATLANTA         59  81  60  82 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     53  78  55  80 /   0  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    57  83  55  84 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        56  83  57  84 /   0   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     58  81  58  82 /   0   5   5   5
MACON           53  84  54  84 /   0   5   5   5
ROME            56  84  55  84 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  82  54  83 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         57  84  57  82 /   0   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...



000
FXUS62 KFFC 042326
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
726 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE SE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL
BROKEN CU TUESDAY AFTERNOON... SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO GREATLY SUPPRESS ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE... WILL SHOW NIL POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTH GA MOUNTAINS WHERE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING MAX HEATING ON TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT... UNDER CLEARING SKIES... WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 50S
EACH NIGHT. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUE SUBSIDENCE WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT IS BEING PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THE LATEST RUN OF
THE ECMWF STILL KEEPS THIS MAIN LOW CENTER OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BEFORE MOVING NE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
STILL BRINGING THIS LOW CENTER INLAND FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
WEAKENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NE. THIS HUGE
DIFFERENCE IN POSITIONING BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS WILL MEAN QUITE
A BIT OF PRECIP FOR GA OR NOTHING AT ALL. AM LEANING TOWARD THE
ECMWF POSITIONING AS IT SEAM TO KEEP THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
LONGER WHICH WOULD KEEP THIS SYSTEM OFF SHORE. THE GFS IS
NOTORIOUS FOR WEAKENING RIDGES TO FAST WHICH WOULD ALSO EXPLAIN
WHY IT WANTS TO PULL THIS SYSTEM ONSHORE. DECIDED TO KEEP THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
IS STILL 4 DAYS AWAY AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

01



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CIG OR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME OF THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE PRODUCING A LLJ OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 20KT AND 30KT. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 00Z
SOUNDINGS BEFORE ADDING LLWS TO THE TAFS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  82  56  82 /   5   5  10   5
ATLANTA         59  81  60  82 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     53  78  55  80 /   0  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    57  83  55  84 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        56  83  57  84 /   0   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     58  81  58  82 /   0   5   5   5
MACON           53  84  54  84 /   0   5   5   5
ROME            56  84  55  84 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  82  54  83 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         57  84  57  82 /   0   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS62 KFFC 042326
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
726 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE SE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL
BROKEN CU TUESDAY AFTERNOON... SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO GREATLY SUPPRESS ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE... WILL SHOW NIL POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTH GA MOUNTAINS WHERE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING MAX HEATING ON TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT... UNDER CLEARING SKIES... WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 50S
EACH NIGHT. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUE SUBSIDENCE WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT IS BEING PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THE LATEST RUN OF
THE ECMWF STILL KEEPS THIS MAIN LOW CENTER OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BEFORE MOVING NE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
STILL BRINGING THIS LOW CENTER INLAND FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
WEAKENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NE. THIS HUGE
DIFFERENCE IN POSITIONING BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS WILL MEAN QUITE
A BIT OF PRECIP FOR GA OR NOTHING AT ALL. AM LEANING TOWARD THE
ECMWF POSITIONING AS IT SEAM TO KEEP THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
LONGER WHICH WOULD KEEP THIS SYSTEM OFF SHORE. THE GFS IS
NOTORIOUS FOR WEAKENING RIDGES TO FAST WHICH WOULD ALSO EXPLAIN
WHY IT WANTS TO PULL THIS SYSTEM ONSHORE. DECIDED TO KEEP THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
IS STILL 4 DAYS AWAY AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

01



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CIG OR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME OF THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE PRODUCING A LLJ OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 20KT AND 30KT. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 00Z
SOUNDINGS BEFORE ADDING LLWS TO THE TAFS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  82  56  82 /   5   5  10   5
ATLANTA         59  81  60  82 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     53  78  55  80 /   0  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    57  83  55  84 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        56  83  57  84 /   0   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     58  81  58  82 /   0   5   5   5
MACON           53  84  54  84 /   0   5   5   5
ROME            56  84  55  84 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  82  54  83 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         57  84  57  82 /   0   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 042301
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
701 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM
MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF
HEATING WITH THE DRY AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND COMBINE WITH EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING LIGHT WINDS AND DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER
DAY. WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AND A WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT
DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
HOURS. WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING SLIGHTLY EXPECT WINDS TO BE
EASTERLY AROUND 8 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST MOVES NORTHWARD. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MODELS
ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH A MORE WESTERLY POSITION OF
THE SURFACE LOW...CONFIDENCE LEVELS KEEP CURRENT POPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THE CWA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE AREA ALONG WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND RIDGE
WESTWARD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR INDICATES
TWO SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES HAVE MOVED WESTWARD THROUGH THE TAF
SITES. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS 10 KTS OR LESS.  THE DRY AIRMASS RESIDING OVER
THE REGION WILL KEEP FOG POTENTIAL LOW...HOWEVER SOME PATCHY FOG
NEAR AGS/OGB BETWEEN 05/08Z AND 05/12Z WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 042301
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
701 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM
MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF
HEATING WITH THE DRY AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND COMBINE WITH EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING LIGHT WINDS AND DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER
DAY. WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AND A WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT
DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
HOURS. WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING SLIGHTLY EXPECT WINDS TO BE
EASTERLY AROUND 8 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST MOVES NORTHWARD. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MODELS
ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH A MORE WESTERLY POSITION OF
THE SURFACE LOW...CONFIDENCE LEVELS KEEP CURRENT POPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THE CWA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE AREA ALONG WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND RIDGE
WESTWARD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR INDICATES
TWO SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES HAVE MOVED WESTWARD THROUGH THE TAF
SITES. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS 10 KTS OR LESS.  THE DRY AIRMASS RESIDING OVER
THE REGION WILL KEEP FOG POTENTIAL LOW...HOWEVER SOME PATCHY FOG
NEAR AGS/OGB BETWEEN 05/08Z AND 05/12Z WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 042301
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
701 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM
MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF
HEATING WITH THE DRY AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND COMBINE WITH EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING LIGHT WINDS AND DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER
DAY. WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AND A WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT
DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
HOURS. WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING SLIGHTLY EXPECT WINDS TO BE
EASTERLY AROUND 8 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST MOVES NORTHWARD. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MODELS
ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH A MORE WESTERLY POSITION OF
THE SURFACE LOW...CONFIDENCE LEVELS KEEP CURRENT POPS NO HIGHER
THAN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THE CWA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE AREA ALONG WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND RIDGE
WESTWARD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR INDICATES
TWO SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES HAVE MOVED WESTWARD THROUGH THE TAF
SITES. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS 10 KTS OR LESS.  THE DRY AIRMASS RESIDING OVER
THE REGION WILL KEEP FOG POTENTIAL LOW...HOWEVER SOME PATCHY FOG
NEAR AGS/OGB BETWEEN 05/08Z AND 05/12Z WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE FROM A SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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