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000
FXUS62 KFFC 251412
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1012 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.Late Morning Update...
Morning surface analysis shows a nearly stalled frontal boundary
near a Newnan to Eatonton to Augusta line and expected to sag a bit
more south today. A modified morning sounding shows a more moist and
unstable airmass...especially along and south of the ole frontal
boundary where 1.6+ pw`s are pooled and high temps in the upper 90s
will produce 3000-3500 J/KG of mucape this afternoon. Have raised
pops slightly to a more widespread 40 percent across much of central
GA for this afternoon... and held onto a 20 percent mainly across
much of north GA... but a storm could pop just about anywhere later
today... so be alert for this potential. The hot temps and increased
moisture will result in dangerously high heat index values...
especially across much of central GA... so will continue with the
Heat Advisory as posted. Otherwise... rest of forecast looks on
track at this time. /39


.Previous Discussions.../Issued at 400 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...
Upper ridge centered mainly over the MS valley will continue to
dominate the forecast area today. A weak front across central GA
combined with a weak short wave should help to focus afternoon and
evening thunderstorms. Afternoon heating with capes ranging from 1500
to 2500 could produce a few thunderstorms with strong winds and large
hail mainly for the area south of Columbus to Macon. Have kept slight
chance pops into the overnight hours. For Sunday...upper ridge stays
centered to our west but surface high pressure becomes centered off
the mid Atlantic coast. This puts GA in a broad low level easterly
flow. This should help moderate max temperatures for Sunday down a
few degrees. A heat advisory has been issued for today with expected
heat index values of 105 to around 107 for a portion of east and
central GA.

41

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...
No real substantive changes to the extended forecast trends with
this cycle. Weak upper-level ridging holds over the region through
the weekend...but as we get into the beginning of the long term
forecast period at the start of the work-week that pattern is
already transitioning into a northwest flow pattern...and eventually
evolves into broad upper troughing across the eastern U.S. by the
end of the week. As is typical for the season...best short wave
energy remains well north of the state but weaker upper forcing and
the presence of a persistent surface trough/front across the
forecast area should keep at least scattered...diurnally favored...
convection in the forecast through the period. Instability is not
expected to be extreme...and shear is limited as well...limiting the
potential for severe weather. However...with the potential for
strong thermodynamic influences each day with surface heating...a
few strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out...especially
if any weak or moderate short wave interaction coincides with
maximum daily heating.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
/Issued at 745 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016/
VFR ceilings and visibility through the period...except some mvfr
possible 09z to 14z Sunday as winds turn to the east. Weak front
across the state could support convection during peak heating this
afternoon...but for now, best chances seem to be south of KATL. VCSH
in tafs at this time and will watch for any development. Winds on
west side today...becoming east late tonight.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

41

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          99  73  90  71 /  20  20  30  30
Atlanta         97  75  91  73 /  30  30  30  30
Blairsville     91  67  86  68 /  20  20  30  30
Cartersville    96  72  92  71 /  20  20  30  30
Columbus        98  76  95  74 /  30  30  40  30
Gainesville     96  73  90  71 /  20  20  30  30
Macon          100  75  94  73 /  30  30  30  30
Rome            97  73  93  72 /  20  20  30  30
Peachtree City  97  72  91  71 /  30  30  30  30
Vidalia         99  75  94  73 /  30  40  30  30

&&


.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EDT this evening FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...Crawford...
Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock...Hancock...Houston...
Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Laurens...Macon...
Monroe...Montgomery...Peach...Pulaski...Putnam...Schley...
Sumter...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...
Warren...Washington...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkinson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...41/39




000
FXUS62 KFFC 251147
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
745 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

Upper ridge centered mainly over the MS valley will continue to
dominate the forecast area today. A weak front across central GA
combined with a weak short wave should help to focus afternoon and
evening thunderstorms. Afternoon heating with capes ranging from 1500
to 2500 could produce a few thunderstorms with strong winds and large
hail mainly for the area south of Columbus to Macon. Have kept slight
chance pops into the overnight hours. For Sunday...upper ridge stays
centered to our west but surface high pressure becomes centered off
the mid Atlantic coast. This puts GA in a broad low level easterly
flow. This should help moderate max temperatures for Sunday down a
few degrees. A heat advisory has been issued for today with expected
heat index values of 105 to around 107 for a portion of east and
central GA.

41


.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

No real substantive changes to the extended forecast trends with
this cycle. Weak upper-level ridging holds over the region through
the weekend...but as we get into the beginning of the long term
forecast period at the start of the work-week that pattern is
already transitioning into a northwest flow pattern...and eventually
evolves into broad upper troughing across the eastern U.S. by the
end of the week. As is typical for the season...best short wave
energy remains well north of the state but weaker upper forcing and
the presence of a persistent surface trough/front across the
forecast area should keep at least scattered...diurnally favored...
convection in the forecast through the period. Instability is not
expected to be extreme...and shear is limited as well...limiting the
potential for severe weather. However...with the potential for
strong thermodynamic influences each day with surface heating...a
few strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out...especially
if any weak or moderate short wave interaction coincides with
maximum daily heating.

20


&&


AVIATION... 12Z Update... VFR ceilings and visibility through the
period...except some mvfr possible 09z to 14z Sunday as winds turn
to the east. Weak front across the state could support convection
during peak heating this afternoon...but for now, best chances seem
to be south of KATL. VCSH in tafs at this time and will watch for
any development. Winds on west side today...becoming east late
tonight.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

41

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          99  73  90  71 /  20  20  30  30
Atlanta         97  75  91  73 /  30  30  30  30
Blairsville     91  67  86  68 /  20  20  30  30
Cartersville    96  72  92  71 /  20  20  30  30
Columbus        98  76  95  74 /  30  30  40  30
Gainesville     96  73  90  71 /  20  20  30  30
Macon          100  75  94  73 /  30  30  30  30
Rome            97  73  93  72 /  20  20  30  30
Peachtree City  97  72  91  71 /  30  30  30  30
Vidalia         99  75  94  73 /  30  40  30  30

&&


.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EDT this evening FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...Crawford...
Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock...Hancock...Houston...
Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Laurens...Macon...
Monroe...Montgomery...Peach...Pulaski...Putnam...Schley...
Sumter...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...
Warren...Washington...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkinson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KFFC 251147
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
745 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

Upper ridge centered mainly over the MS valley will continue to
dominate the forecast area today. A weak front across central GA
combined with a weak short wave should help to focus afternoon and
evening thunderstorms. Afternoon heating with capes ranging from 1500
to 2500 could produce a few thunderstorms with strong winds and large
hail mainly for the area south of Columbus to Macon. Have kept slight
chance pops into the overnight hours. For Sunday...upper ridge stays
centered to our west but surface high pressure becomes centered off
the mid Atlantic coast. This puts GA in a broad low level easterly
flow. This should help moderate max temperatures for Sunday down a
few degrees. A heat advisory has been issued for today with expected
heat index values of 105 to around 107 for a portion of east and
central GA.

41


.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

No real substantive changes to the extended forecast trends with
this cycle. Weak upper-level ridging holds over the region through
the weekend...but as we get into the beginning of the long term
forecast period at the start of the work-week that pattern is
already transitioning into a northwest flow pattern...and eventually
evolves into broad upper troughing across the eastern U.S. by the
end of the week. As is typical for the season...best short wave
energy remains well north of the state but weaker upper forcing and
the presence of a persistent surface trough/front across the
forecast area should keep at least scattered...diurnally favored...
convection in the forecast through the period. Instability is not
expected to be extreme...and shear is limited as well...limiting the
potential for severe weather. However...with the potential for
strong thermodynamic influences each day with surface heating...a
few strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out...especially
if any weak or moderate short wave interaction coincides with
maximum daily heating.

20


&&


AVIATION... 12Z Update... VFR ceilings and visibility through the
period...except some mvfr possible 09z to 14z Sunday as winds turn
to the east. Weak front across the state could support convection
during peak heating this afternoon...but for now, best chances seem
to be south of KATL. VCSH in tafs at this time and will watch for
any development. Winds on west side today...becoming east late
tonight.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

41

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          99  73  90  71 /  20  20  30  30
Atlanta         97  75  91  73 /  30  30  30  30
Blairsville     91  67  86  68 /  20  20  30  30
Cartersville    96  72  92  71 /  20  20  30  30
Columbus        98  76  95  74 /  30  30  40  30
Gainesville     96  73  90  71 /  20  20  30  30
Macon          100  75  94  73 /  30  30  30  30
Rome            97  73  93  72 /  20  20  30  30
Peachtree City  97  72  91  71 /  30  30  30  30
Vidalia         99  75  94  73 /  30  40  30  30

&&


.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EDT this evening FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...Crawford...
Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock...Hancock...Houston...
Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Laurens...Macon...
Monroe...Montgomery...Peach...Pulaski...Putnam...Schley...
Sumter...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...
Warren...Washington...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkinson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...41



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000
FXUS62 KCHS 251119
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
719 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front to the north will push southward across the area
today and Sunday, before dissipating through Monday. Another front
will impact the area beginning on Tuesday and will become nearly
stationary in the vicinity through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The trough over the east will pull further away into the Atlantic,
as deep ridging amplifies and prevails from the Gulf of Mexico
north to the Great Lakes region. The local forecast zones will lie
within a northwest flow aloft between these two large scale
features, while simultaneously at the surface the Atlantic ridge
is suppressed across Florida in advance of a sluggish southward
moving cold front that arrives from the north this afternoon,
making it near the Savannah River by midnight. The front will then
push into our Georgia counties overnight as high pressure off New
England wedges in behind it.

It`ll be another hot and uncomfortably humid day across the vast
majority of the area. An indication of how hot it will be is that
we started off close to 80-82F in several communities over the
coastal zones. Compressional heating in advance of the cold front,
deep offshore trajectories and 850 mb temps that will be near
18-20C or at or above the 90th percentile for this time of year
supports max temps in the mid and upper 90s everywhere near and
inland from the intra-coastal. If convection is delayed late
enough this afternoon then a few places far interior Georgia could
hit 100F within the highest theta-e air. Although westerly flow
within the planetary boundary layer will enable some mixing out of
dew points, probably no lower than 70-73 inland, when combined
with the excessive heat will support max heat indices of 105-109F
this afternoon. The coastal corridor from southern Charleston
County to McIntosh will not have quite the oppressive heat as
further inland, but their dew points will pool in at least the
middle 70s if not higher, also supportive of similar max heat
indices. We expanded the Heat Advisory for the afternoon and early
evening hours to include all but Berkeley, Dorchester, Charleston
and inland Colleton. However, even in these counties heat indices
will approach 105F, and if convection is delayed, then an
expansion of the Heat Advisory to include some or all of these
places could be required.

A remnant boundary from convection last evening, most likely a mid
level trough, is still observed near and just off the coast of
South Carolina this morning will allow for a few showers/t-storms
over the Atlantic, but they should not impact land sections this
morning. But that changes for the afternoon, with the approach of
the cold front and the aforementioned mid level trough still
located east-west in the area, the formation of the sea breeze
boundary and various meso-scale boundaries that also develop.
These features will supply the necessary lift and convergence and
occur within a highly moist environment with PWAT approaching 2
inches. There is also some forcing and difluence aloft from a jet
streak that arrives in South Carolina during peak heating, along
with mid level impulses that rounds the eastern periphery of the
ridge over the Gulf Coast region.

Although there is only weak shear and mid level lapse rates are
modest at best, most thermodynamic conditions are quite favorable
for convection to form. SBCAPE is at least 2000-2500 J/kg, Lifted
Indices are at least as low as -6 to -8C and Total Total Indices
are expected to exceed 50. This will support at least scattered
showers and thunderstorms once we reach our convective temp in the
lower and middle 90s around 1-2 pm. Coverage will initiate near
the sea breeze boundary close to the US-17 corridor, then
increases in coverage and intensity with the interaction of the
cold front with meso-scale boundaries. WindEx greater than 60 kt
and DCAPE of 1200-1600 J/kg, perhaps even higher given mid level
dry air and large dew point depressions at the surface, will
support a risk for at least isolated severe thunderstorms with
damaging winds. While the mid levels are warm, there is still
enough CAPE in the hail growth zone to support at least small or
perhaps marginally hail. Lightning will also be cause for concern
with the abnormally hot conditions. We have maintained mention of
severe weather in the HWO, with the most likely timing between 2
and 7 pm. While widespread severe weather is not expected, after
coordination with SPC the region is now within a "Marginal" risk
of severe weather for at least pulse type storms if not a few
multi-cellular clusters. Storm motion is from NW to SE, so if
you`re at the beaches today keep a sharp look at the sky as storms
will attempt to move back toward the coast late in the day.

The cold front advancing slowly south tonight with be followed by
a inland wedge of high pressure nosing down across the Carolinas
and into Georgia. A more stable air mass will gradually overspread
the local zones from north to south, allowing for convection to
dwindle between sunset and midnight. We kept small chances going
however for central and southern counties overnight in closer
proximity to the cold front. Temps are able to "cool" to the lower
and middle 70s behind the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday and Sunday night: The pattern aloft will feature the center
of the large upper ridge across the lower Mississippi Valley, and
this will remain generally unchanged through the overnight. At the
surface, high pressure will be situated across New England with the
remnant front progged to be sitting across southeast Georgia in the
vicinity of the Altamaha. This lingering boundary will likely be the
focus for afternoon convection and that is where the best moisture
and highest pops are in place. Overall there isn`t much to hang your
hat on as far as the severe potential is concerned and the severe
threat is low. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler in the wake
of the front with low 90s just about everywhere. Overnight, any
lingering convection should dissipate quickly with the loss of
heating and the bulk of the period is dry. Expect another mild night
with lows only in the low to mid 70s.

Monday through Tuesday: Monday is expected to be the quietest day of
this stretch with the persistent ridge aloft and the dissipation of
the residual front. Monday pops are limited to the slight chance
range to account for just isolated convection. Then by Tuesday, the
coverage of diurnal showers and thunderstorms is expected to
increase as a front approaches from the west and deeper moisture
increases across the forecast area. No severe weather indices are
particularly impressive so the overall severe threat is low, but we
could see some locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures should be quite
typical of late June, 90 to the low 90s for highs and lows in the
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term forecast remains essentially unchanged and still
revolves around the front that is expected to push into the area and
become nearly stationary mid week. The front is then progged to
remain in the vicinity of the forecast area through late in the week
and will serve as a source of improved moisture and low level
convergence to support increased coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. For now, the forecast features mid to high range
chance pops each day with lingering pops through the overnight. As
the time draws closer and confidence grows in the placement of the
lingering front, more detail can be put into the forecast for which
periods are most likely to see the best rain chances. Highs will be
around 90 each day with lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Quiet conditions with VFR weather at both KCHS and KSAV through
early this afternoon. However, given a nearby cold front, the sea
breeze and various meso-scale boundaries there will be a risk for
scattered TSRA and at least temporary flight restrictions at both
terminals during the mid afternoon through early evening. Some of
the TSRA could produce strong winds and heavy rains, but until
trends are more identifiable, we have just VCTS with the latest
TAF set.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Low end chances for direct impacts from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms on Sunday. Chances then will
increase Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Nocturnal low level jetting and a tight gradient across the
coastal waters early this morning will ease some late this
morning and afternoon as a cold front starts to approach from the
north and the pressure gradient diminishes slightly. Southwest
winds will peak through mid morning up to 15 or 20 kt, dropping
off several knots during the late morning, and then backing
around to more south with sea breeze circulations this afternoon.
Seas will hold around 3-4 ft throughout.

Tonight: The cold front will slip into our South Carolina waters
this evening, making to our Georgia waters late, but still not
totally clearing the area until Sunday. A high pressure wedge
inland will push south and southwest in wake of the cold front,
maybe shifting some winds to northeast over the Charleston County
waters late. Otherwise south of the front winds will generally
remain from some southerly direction. No SCA headlines will be
necessary.

Mariners are advised that scattered showers and thunderstorms will
occur late today into tonight, some of which will be strong or
severe with damaging winds, heavy rains, lightning strikes and
perhaps a risk for waterspouts.

Sunday through Thursday: The pattern will feature high pressure
to the north and the lingering front to the south on Sunday which
will help to drive a modest easterly flow through the day. Winds
will remain onshore through Monday and will gradually become more
southerly Tuesday-Thursday. The strongest period of flow will
likely happen in this mid week time period as the pressure
gradient tightens in response to a cold front approaching from the
west. Seas will generally range 2-3 feet with some 4 footers
possible for the outer waters Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record high minimum for June 24th was tied at KCHS...79 degrees
previously set in 1998.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ040-042-047>049-051.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 251119
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
719 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front to the north will push southward across the area
today and Sunday, before dissipating through Monday. Another front
will impact the area beginning on Tuesday and will become nearly
stationary in the vicinity through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The trough over the east will pull further away into the Atlantic,
as deep ridging amplifies and prevails from the Gulf of Mexico
north to the Great Lakes region. The local forecast zones will lie
within a northwest flow aloft between these two large scale
features, while simultaneously at the surface the Atlantic ridge
is suppressed across Florida in advance of a sluggish southward
moving cold front that arrives from the north this afternoon,
making it near the Savannah River by midnight. The front will then
push into our Georgia counties overnight as high pressure off New
England wedges in behind it.

It`ll be another hot and uncomfortably humid day across the vast
majority of the area. An indication of how hot it will be is that
we started off close to 80-82F in several communities over the
coastal zones. Compressional heating in advance of the cold front,
deep offshore trajectories and 850 mb temps that will be near
18-20C or at or above the 90th percentile for this time of year
supports max temps in the mid and upper 90s everywhere near and
inland from the intra-coastal. If convection is delayed late
enough this afternoon then a few places far interior Georgia could
hit 100F within the highest theta-e air. Although westerly flow
within the planetary boundary layer will enable some mixing out of
dew points, probably no lower than 70-73 inland, when combined
with the excessive heat will support max heat indices of 105-109F
this afternoon. The coastal corridor from southern Charleston
County to McIntosh will not have quite the oppressive heat as
further inland, but their dew points will pool in at least the
middle 70s if not higher, also supportive of similar max heat
indices. We expanded the Heat Advisory for the afternoon and early
evening hours to include all but Berkeley, Dorchester, Charleston
and inland Colleton. However, even in these counties heat indices
will approach 105F, and if convection is delayed, then an
expansion of the Heat Advisory to include some or all of these
places could be required.

A remnant boundary from convection last evening, most likely a mid
level trough, is still observed near and just off the coast of
South Carolina this morning will allow for a few showers/t-storms
over the Atlantic, but they should not impact land sections this
morning. But that changes for the afternoon, with the approach of
the cold front and the aforementioned mid level trough still
located east-west in the area, the formation of the sea breeze
boundary and various meso-scale boundaries that also develop.
These features will supply the necessary lift and convergence and
occur within a highly moist environment with PWAT approaching 2
inches. There is also some forcing and difluence aloft from a jet
streak that arrives in South Carolina during peak heating, along
with mid level impulses that rounds the eastern periphery of the
ridge over the Gulf Coast region.

Although there is only weak shear and mid level lapse rates are
modest at best, most thermodynamic conditions are quite favorable
for convection to form. SBCAPE is at least 2000-2500 J/kg, Lifted
Indices are at least as low as -6 to -8C and Total Total Indices
are expected to exceed 50. This will support at least scattered
showers and thunderstorms once we reach our convective temp in the
lower and middle 90s around 1-2 pm. Coverage will initiate near
the sea breeze boundary close to the US-17 corridor, then
increases in coverage and intensity with the interaction of the
cold front with meso-scale boundaries. WindEx greater than 60 kt
and DCAPE of 1200-1600 J/kg, perhaps even higher given mid level
dry air and large dew point depressions at the surface, will
support a risk for at least isolated severe thunderstorms with
damaging winds. While the mid levels are warm, there is still
enough CAPE in the hail growth zone to support at least small or
perhaps marginally hail. Lightning will also be cause for concern
with the abnormally hot conditions. We have maintained mention of
severe weather in the HWO, with the most likely timing between 2
and 7 pm. While widespread severe weather is not expected, after
coordination with SPC the region is now within a "Marginal" risk
of severe weather for at least pulse type storms if not a few
multi-cellular clusters. Storm motion is from NW to SE, so if
you`re at the beaches today keep a sharp look at the sky as storms
will attempt to move back toward the coast late in the day.

The cold front advancing slowly south tonight with be followed by
a inland wedge of high pressure nosing down across the Carolinas
and into Georgia. A more stable air mass will gradually overspread
the local zones from north to south, allowing for convection to
dwindle between sunset and midnight. We kept small chances going
however for central and southern counties overnight in closer
proximity to the cold front. Temps are able to "cool" to the lower
and middle 70s behind the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday and Sunday night: The pattern aloft will feature the center
of the large upper ridge across the lower Mississippi Valley, and
this will remain generally unchanged through the overnight. At the
surface, high pressure will be situated across New England with the
remnant front progged to be sitting across southeast Georgia in the
vicinity of the Altamaha. This lingering boundary will likely be the
focus for afternoon convection and that is where the best moisture
and highest pops are in place. Overall there isn`t much to hang your
hat on as far as the severe potential is concerned and the severe
threat is low. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler in the wake
of the front with low 90s just about everywhere. Overnight, any
lingering convection should dissipate quickly with the loss of
heating and the bulk of the period is dry. Expect another mild night
with lows only in the low to mid 70s.

Monday through Tuesday: Monday is expected to be the quietest day of
this stretch with the persistent ridge aloft and the dissipation of
the residual front. Monday pops are limited to the slight chance
range to account for just isolated convection. Then by Tuesday, the
coverage of diurnal showers and thunderstorms is expected to
increase as a front approaches from the west and deeper moisture
increases across the forecast area. No severe weather indices are
particularly impressive so the overall severe threat is low, but we
could see some locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures should be quite
typical of late June, 90 to the low 90s for highs and lows in the
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term forecast remains essentially unchanged and still
revolves around the front that is expected to push into the area and
become nearly stationary mid week. The front is then progged to
remain in the vicinity of the forecast area through late in the week
and will serve as a source of improved moisture and low level
convergence to support increased coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. For now, the forecast features mid to high range
chance pops each day with lingering pops through the overnight. As
the time draws closer and confidence grows in the placement of the
lingering front, more detail can be put into the forecast for which
periods are most likely to see the best rain chances. Highs will be
around 90 each day with lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Quiet conditions with VFR weather at both KCHS and KSAV through
early this afternoon. However, given a nearby cold front, the sea
breeze and various meso-scale boundaries there will be a risk for
scattered TSRA and at least temporary flight restrictions at both
terminals during the mid afternoon through early evening. Some of
the TSRA could produce strong winds and heavy rains, but until
trends are more identifiable, we have just VCTS with the latest
TAF set.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Low end chances for direct impacts from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms on Sunday. Chances then will
increase Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Nocturnal low level jetting and a tight gradient across the
coastal waters early this morning will ease some late this
morning and afternoon as a cold front starts to approach from the
north and the pressure gradient diminishes slightly. Southwest
winds will peak through mid morning up to 15 or 20 kt, dropping
off several knots during the late morning, and then backing
around to more south with sea breeze circulations this afternoon.
Seas will hold around 3-4 ft throughout.

Tonight: The cold front will slip into our South Carolina waters
this evening, making to our Georgia waters late, but still not
totally clearing the area until Sunday. A high pressure wedge
inland will push south and southwest in wake of the cold front,
maybe shifting some winds to northeast over the Charleston County
waters late. Otherwise south of the front winds will generally
remain from some southerly direction. No SCA headlines will be
necessary.

Mariners are advised that scattered showers and thunderstorms will
occur late today into tonight, some of which will be strong or
severe with damaging winds, heavy rains, lightning strikes and
perhaps a risk for waterspouts.

Sunday through Thursday: The pattern will feature high pressure
to the north and the lingering front to the south on Sunday which
will help to drive a modest easterly flow through the day. Winds
will remain onshore through Monday and will gradually become more
southerly Tuesday-Thursday. The strongest period of flow will
likely happen in this mid week time period as the pressure
gradient tightens in response to a cold front approaching from the
west. Seas will generally range 2-3 feet with some 4 footers
possible for the outer waters Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record high minimum for June 24th was tied at KCHS...79 degrees
previously set in 1998.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ040-042-047>049-051.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 251036
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
636 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front to the north will push southward across the area
today and Sunday, before dissipating through Monday. Another front
will impact the area beginning on Tuesday and will become nearly
stationary in the vicinity through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The trough over the east will pull further away into the Atlantic,
as deep ridging amplifies and prevails from the Gulf of Mexico
north to the Great Lakes region. The local forecast zones will lie
within a northwest flow aloft between these two large scale
features, while simultaneously at the surface the Atlantic ridge
is suppressed across Florida in advance of a sluggish southward
moving cold front that arrives from the north this afternoon,
making it near the Savannah River by midnight. The front will then
push into our Georgia counties overnight as high pressure off New
England wedges in behind it.

It`ll be another hot and uncomfortably humid day across the vast
majority of the area. An indication of how hot it will be is that
we started off close to 80-82F in several communities over the
coastal zones. Compressional heating in advance of the cold front,
deep offshore trajectories and 850 mb temps that will be near
18-20C or at or above the 90th percentile for this time of year
supports max temps in the mid and upper 90s everywhere near and
inland from the intra-coastal. If convection is delayed late
enough this afternoon then a few places far interior Georgia could
hit 100F within the highest theta-e air. Although westerly flow
within the planetary boundary layer will enable some mixing out of
dew points, probably no lower than 70-73 inland, when combined
with the excessive heat will support max heat indices of 105-109F
this afternoon. The coastal corridor from southern Charleston
County to McIntosh will not have quite the oppressive heat as
further inland, but their dew points will pool in at least the
middle 70s if not higher, also supportive of similar max heat
indices. We expanded the Heat Advisory for the afternoon and early
evening hours to include all but Berkeley, Dorchester, Charleston
and inland Colleton. However, even in these counties heat indices
will approach 105F, and if convection is delayed, then an
expansion of the Heat Advisory to include some or all of these
places could be required.

A remnant boundary from convection last evening, most likely a mid
level trough, is still observed near and just off the coast of
South Carolina this morning will allow for a few showers/t-storms
over the Atlantic, but they should not impact land sections this
morning. But that changes for the afternoon, with the approach of
the cold front and the aforementioned mid level trough still
located east-west in the area, the formation of the sea breeze
boundary and various meso-scale boundaries that also develop.
These features will supply the necessary lift and convergence and
occur within a highly moist environment with PWAT approaching 2
inches. There is also some forcing and difluence aloft from a jet
streak that arrives in South Carolina during peak heating, along
with mid level impulses that rounds the eastern periphery of the
ridge over the Gulf Coast region.

Although there is only weak shear and mid level lapse rates are
modest at best, most thermodynamic conditions are quite favorable
for convection to form. SBCAPE is at least 2000-2500 J/kg, Lifted
Indices are at least as low as -6 to -8C and Total Total Indices
are expected to exceed 50. This will support at least scattered
showers and thunderstorms once we reach our convective temp in the
lower and middle 90s around 1-2 pm. Coverage will initiate near
the sea breeze boundary close to the US-17 corridor, then
increases in coverage and intensity with the interaction of the
cold front with meso-scale boundaries. WindEx greater than 60 kt
and DCAPE of 1200-1600 J/kg, perhaps even higher given mid level
dry air and large dew point depressions at the surface, will
support a risk for at least isolated severe thunderstorms with
damaging winds. While the mid levels are warm, there is still
enough CAPE in the hail growth zone to support at least small or
perhaps marginally hail. Lightning will also be cause for concern
with the abnormally hot conditions. We have maintained mention of
severe weather in the HWO, with the most likely timing between 2
and 7 pm. While widespread severe weather is not expected, after
coordination with SPC the region is now within a "Marginal" risk
of severe weather for at least pulse type storms if not a few
multi-cellular clusters. Storm motion is from NW to SE, so if
you`re at the beaches today keep a sharp look at the sky as storms
will attempt to move back toward the coast late in the day.

The cold front advancing slowly south tonight with be followed by
a inland wedge of high pressure nosing down across the Carolinas
and into Georgia. A more stable air mass will gradually overspread
the local zones from north to south, allowing for convection to
dwindle between sunset and midnight. We kept small chances going
however for central and southern counties overnight in closer
proximity to the cold front. Temps are able to "cool" to the lower
and middle 70s behind the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday and Sunday night: The pattern aloft will feature the center
of the large upper ridge across the lower Mississippi Valley, and
this will remain generally unchanged through the overnight. At the
surface, high pressure will be situated across New England with the
remnant front progged to be sitting across southeast Georgia in the
vicinity of the Altamaha. This lingering boundary will likely be the
focus for afternoon convection and that is where the best moisture
and highest pops are in place. Overall there isn`t much to hang your
hat on as far as the severe potential is concerned and the severe
threat is low. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler in the wake
of the front with low 90s just about everywhere. Overnight, any
lingering convection should dissipate quickly with the loss of
heating and the bulk of the period is dry. Expect another mild night
with lows only in the low to mid 70s.

Monday through Tuesday: Monday is expected to be the quietest day of
this stretch with the persistent ridge aloft and the dissipation of
the residual front. Monday pops are limited to the slight chance
range to account for just isolated convection. Then by Tuesday, the
coverage of diurnal showers and thunderstorms is expected to
increase as a front approaches from the west and deeper moisture
increases across the forecast area. No severe weather indices are
particularly impressive so the overall severe threat is low, but we
could see some locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures should be quite
typical of late June, 90 to the low 90s for highs and lows in the
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term forecast remains essentially unchanged and still
revolves around the front that is expected to push into the area and
become nearly stationary mid week. The front is then progged to
remain in the vicinity of the forecast area through late in the week
and will serve as a source of improved moisture and low level
convergence to support increased coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. For now, the forecast features mid to high range
chance pops each day with lingering pops through the overnight. As
the time draws closer and confidence grows in the placement of the
lingering front, more detail can be put into the forecast for which
periods are most likely to see the best rain chances. Highs will be
around 90 each day with lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Quiet conditions with VFR weather at both KCHS and KSAV through
early this afternoon. However, given a nearby cold front, the sea
breeze and various meso-scale boundaries there will be a risk for
scattered TSRA and at least temporary flight restrictions at both
terminals during the mid afternoon through early evening. Some of
the TSRA could produce strong winds and heavy rains, but until
trends are more identifiable, we have just VCTS with the latest
TAF set.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Low end chances for direct impacts from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms on Sunday. Chances then will
increase Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Nocturnal low level jetting and a tight gradient across the
coastal waters early this morning will ease some late this
morning and afternoon as a cold front starts to approach from the
north and the pressure gradient diminishes slightly. Southwest
winds will peak through mid morning up to 15 or 20 kt, dropping
off several knots during the late morning, and then backing
around to more south with sea breeze circulations this afternoon.
Seas will hold around 3-4 ft throughout.

Tonight: The cold front will slip into our South Carolina waters
this evening, making to our Georgia waters late, but still not
totally clearing the area until Sunday. A high pressure wedge
inland will push south and southwest in wake of the cold front,
maybe shifting some winds to northeast over the Charleston County
waters late. Otherwise south of the front winds will generally
remain from some southerly direction. No SCA headlines will be
necessary.

Mariners are advised that scattered showers and thunderstorms will
occur late today into tonight, some of which will be strong or
severe with damaging winds, heavy rains, lightning strikes and
perhaps a risk for waterspouts.

Sunday through Thursday: The pattern will feature high pressure
to the north and the lingering front to the south on Sunday which
will help to drive a modest easterly flow through the day. Winds
will remain onshore through Monday and will gradually become more
southerly Tuesday-Thursday. The strongest period of flow will
likely happen in this mid week time period as the pressure
gradient tightens in response to a cold front approaching from the
west. Seas will generally range 2-3 feet with some 4 footers
possible for the outer waters Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record high minimum for June 24th was tied at KCHS...79 degrees
previously set in 1998.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ040-042-047>049-051.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...
CLIMATE...



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KCAE 251034
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
634 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front stalling near the forecast area today will
dissipate by Monday. Another cold front will move into the area
Tuesday and become about stationary. The pattern supports
scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The models show the front lingering in the forecast area today,
and just south of the area tonight. Convergence near the front
supports thunderstorms but shallow moisture and upper ridging
extending into the area from the west should help limit coverage.
The NAM and GFS MOS indicated low pops. The high-resolution
models displayed scattered coverage. Forecasted chance pops mainly
near the time of maximum heating. The NAM indicated moderate
instability with surface-based LIs -7 to -8. The thunderstorms
may contain damaging wind. Followed the higher temperature
guidance mainly in the southwest section because of the recent
bias and upper ridging.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The models display a surface ridge extending from off the Mid
Atlantic coast southwestward into the forecast area Sunday. The
models depict a diffuse front near the south part of the area.
Upper ridging extending into the area from the west should help
keep moisture shallow. Weak convergence associated with the
front and possible sea breeze boundary plus heating supports a
small pop mainly in the south part of the forecast area. Leaned
toward the higher temperature guidance because of recent
verification and upper ridging.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF have upper ridging extending into the forecast
area early in the period with the ridging shifting farther
westward by the middle of the week. The models show deeper
moisture ahead of a cold front Tuesday supporting an increased
chance of thunderstorms. Deep moisture may continue during the
rest of the period with the front stalled near the area and an
amplifying upper trough. The GFS and ECMWF MOS have pops 20
percent or less Monday, and 30 to 50 percent during the rest of
the period. The MOS supports temperatures near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some brief MVFR fog at CAE and CUB until around 13z, otherwise
VFR at all TAF sites for much of the 24 hour period. A cold front
will sink southward into the area this morning and stall over the
southern Midlands or CSRA later this afternoon. Winds will become
northerly less than 10 knots behind the front later this morning.
Isolated thunderstorms possible later this afternoon but
confidence low on location, with a possible focus in the CSRA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection expected through
Monday. The chance for convection will increase Tuesday as a
cold front crosses the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 251034
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
634 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front stalling near the forecast area today will
dissipate by Monday. Another cold front will move into the area
Tuesday and become about stationary. The pattern supports
scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The models show the front lingering in the forecast area today,
and just south of the area tonight. Convergence near the front
supports thunderstorms but shallow moisture and upper ridging
extending into the area from the west should help limit coverage.
The NAM and GFS MOS indicated low pops. The high-resolution
models displayed scattered coverage. Forecasted chance pops mainly
near the time of maximum heating. The NAM indicated moderate
instability with surface-based LIs -7 to -8. The thunderstorms
may contain damaging wind. Followed the higher temperature
guidance mainly in the southwest section because of the recent
bias and upper ridging.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The models display a surface ridge extending from off the Mid
Atlantic coast southwestward into the forecast area Sunday. The
models depict a diffuse front near the south part of the area.
Upper ridging extending into the area from the west should help
keep moisture shallow. Weak convergence associated with the
front and possible sea breeze boundary plus heating supports a
small pop mainly in the south part of the forecast area. Leaned
toward the higher temperature guidance because of recent
verification and upper ridging.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF have upper ridging extending into the forecast
area early in the period with the ridging shifting farther
westward by the middle of the week. The models show deeper
moisture ahead of a cold front Tuesday supporting an increased
chance of thunderstorms. Deep moisture may continue during the
rest of the period with the front stalled near the area and an
amplifying upper trough. The GFS and ECMWF MOS have pops 20
percent or less Monday, and 30 to 50 percent during the rest of
the period. The MOS supports temperatures near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some brief MVFR fog at CAE and CUB until around 13z, otherwise
VFR at all TAF sites for much of the 24 hour period. A cold front
will sink southward into the area this morning and stall over the
southern Midlands or CSRA later this afternoon. Winds will become
northerly less than 10 knots behind the front later this morning.
Isolated thunderstorms possible later this afternoon but
confidence low on location, with a possible focus in the CSRA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection expected through
Monday. The chance for convection will increase Tuesday as a
cold front crosses the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 251020
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
620 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front stalling near the forecast area today will
dissipate by Monday. Another cold front will move into the area
Tuesday and become about stationary. The pattern supports
scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The models show the front lingering in the forecast area today,
and just south of the area tonight. Convergence near the front
supports thunderstorms but shallow moisture and upper ridging
extending into the area from the west should help limit coverage.
The NAM and GFS MOS indicated low pops. The high-resolution
models displayed scattered coverage. Forecasted chance pops mainly
near the time of maximum heating. The NAM indicated moderate
instability with surface-based LIs -7 to -8. The thunderstorms
may contain damaging wind. Followed the higher temperature
guidance mainly in the southwest section because of the recent
bias and upper ridging.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The models display a surface ridge extending from off the Mid
Atlantic coast southwestward into the forecast area Sunday. The
models depict a diffuse front near the south part of the area.
Upper ridging extending into the area from the west should help
keep moisture shallow. Weak convergence associated with the
front and possible sea breeze boundary plus heating supports a
small pop mainly in the south part of the forecast area. Leaned
toward the higher temperature guidance because of recent
verification and upper ridging.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF have upper ridging extending into the forecast
area early in the period with the ridging shifting farther
westward by the middle of the week. The models show deeper
moisture ahead of a cold front Tuesday supporting an increased
chance of thunderstorms. Deep moisture may continue during the
rest of the period with the front stalled near the area and an
amplifying upper trough. The GFS and ECMWF MOS have pops 20
percent or less Monday, and 30 to 50 percent during the rest of
the period. The MOS supports temperatures near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will sink southward into the area this morning and
stall over the southern Midlands or CSRA later this afternoon.
Winds will become northerly less than 10 knots behind the front
later this morning. Isolated thunderstorms possible later this
afternoon but confidence low on location, possibly focus in the
CSRA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection expected through
Monday. The chance for convection will increase Tuesday as a
cold front crosses the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 251020
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
620 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front stalling near the forecast area today will
dissipate by Monday. Another cold front will move into the area
Tuesday and become about stationary. The pattern supports
scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The models show the front lingering in the forecast area today,
and just south of the area tonight. Convergence near the front
supports thunderstorms but shallow moisture and upper ridging
extending into the area from the west should help limit coverage.
The NAM and GFS MOS indicated low pops. The high-resolution
models displayed scattered coverage. Forecasted chance pops mainly
near the time of maximum heating. The NAM indicated moderate
instability with surface-based LIs -7 to -8. The thunderstorms
may contain damaging wind. Followed the higher temperature
guidance mainly in the southwest section because of the recent
bias and upper ridging.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The models display a surface ridge extending from off the Mid
Atlantic coast southwestward into the forecast area Sunday. The
models depict a diffuse front near the south part of the area.
Upper ridging extending into the area from the west should help
keep moisture shallow. Weak convergence associated with the
front and possible sea breeze boundary plus heating supports a
small pop mainly in the south part of the forecast area. Leaned
toward the higher temperature guidance because of recent
verification and upper ridging.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF have upper ridging extending into the forecast
area early in the period with the ridging shifting farther
westward by the middle of the week. The models show deeper
moisture ahead of a cold front Tuesday supporting an increased
chance of thunderstorms. Deep moisture may continue during the
rest of the period with the front stalled near the area and an
amplifying upper trough. The GFS and ECMWF MOS have pops 20
percent or less Monday, and 30 to 50 percent during the rest of
the period. The MOS supports temperatures near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will sink southward into the area this morning and
stall over the southern Midlands or CSRA later this afternoon.
Winds will become northerly less than 10 knots behind the front
later this morning. Isolated thunderstorms possible later this
afternoon but confidence low on location, possibly focus in the
CSRA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection expected through
Monday. The chance for convection will increase Tuesday as a
cold front crosses the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 250827
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
427 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front stalling near the south part of the forecast
area today will dissipate by Monday. Another cold front will move
into the area Tuesday and become about stationary. The pattern
supports scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The models show the front sinking into the south part of the
forecast area today. The front should be just south of the region
tonight. Convergence near the front supports thunderstorms but
shallow moisture and upper ridging extending into the area from
the west should help limit coverage. The NAM and GFS MOS indicated
low pops. The high-resolution models displayed scattered
coverage. Forecasted chance pops mainly near the time of maximum
heating. The NAM indicated moderate instability with surface-
based LIs -7 to -8. The thunderstorms may contain damaging wind.
Followed the guidance consensus for the temperature forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The models display a surface ridge extending from off the Mid
Atlantic coast southwestward into the forecast area Sunday. The
models depict a more diffuse front near the south part of the area
and upper ridging extending into the area from the west should
help keep moisture shallow. Weak convergence associated with the
diffuse front and possible sea breeze front plus heating supports
a small pop mainly in the south part of the forecast area. Leaned
toward the higher temperature guidance because of recent
verification.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF have upper ridging extending into the forecast
area early in the period with the ridging shifting farther
westward by the middle of the week. The models show deeper
moisture ahead of a cold front Tuesday supporting an increased
chance of thunderstorms. Deep moisture may continue during the
rest of the period with the front stalled near the area and an
amplifying upper trough. The GFS and ECMWF MOS have pops 20
percent or less Monday, and 30 to 50 percent during the rest of
the period. The MOS supports temperatures near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR fog possible at AGS/OGB during the pre-dawn hours. Otherwise
expect VFR conditions before sunrise. High and mid level clouds
will continue. A cold front will sink southward into the area
this morning and stall over the southern Midlands or CSRA later
this afternoon. Winds will become northerly less than 10 knots
behind the front later this morning. Isolated thunderstorms
possible later this afternoon but confidence low on
location...possibly focus in the CSRA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection expected through
Monday. The chance for convection will increase Tuesday as a
cold front crosses the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 250805
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
405 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front to the north will push southward across the area
today and Sunday, before dissipating through Monday. Another front
will impact the area beginning on Tuesday and will become nearly
stationary in the vicinity through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The trough over the east will pull further away into the Atlantic,
as deep ridging prevails from the Gulf of Mexico north to the
Great Lakes region. The local forecast zones will lie within a
northwest flow aloft between these two large scale features,
while simultaneously at the surface the Atlantic ridge is
suppressed across Florida in advance of a sluggish southward
moving cold front that arrives from the north this afternoon,
making it near the Savannah River by midnight. The front will
then push into our Georgia counties overnight.

It`ll be another hot and uncomfortably humid day across the vast
majority of the area. An indication of how hot it will be is that
we`re starting off close to 80F in several communities over the
coastal zones. Compressional heating in advance of the cold front,
deep offshore trajectories and 850 mb temps that will be near
18-20C or at or above the 90th percentile for this time of year
supports max temps in the mid and upper 90s everywhere near and
inland from the intra-coastal. If convection is delayed late
enough this afternoon then a few places far interior Georgia could
hit 100F within the highest theta-e air. Although westerly flow
within the planetary boundary layer will enable some mixing out
of dew points, probably no lower than 70-73 inland, when combined
with the excessive heat will support max heat indices of 105-109F
this afternoon. The coastal corridor from southern Charleston
County to McIntosh will not have quite the oppressive heat as
further inland, but their dew points will pool in at least the
middle 70s if not higher, also supportive of similar max heat
indices. We expanded the Heat Advisory for the afternoon and early
evening hours to include all but Berkeley, Dorchester, Charleston
and inland Colleton. However, even in these counties heat indices
will approach 105F, and if convection is delayed, then an
expansion of the Heat Advisory to include some or all of these
places could be required.

A remnant boundary from convection last evening is still observed
near and just off the coast of South Carolina this morning will
allow for a few showers/t-storms over the Atlantic, but they
should not impact land sections this morning. But that changes for
the afternoon, with the approach of the cold front, the formation
of the sea breeze boundary and various meso-scale boundaries that
also develop. These features will supply the necessary lift and
convergence and occur within a highly moist environment with PWAT
approaching 2 inches. There is also some forcing and difluence aloft
from a jet streak that arrives in South Carolina during peak
heating, along with mid level impulses that rounds the eastern
periphery of the ridge over the Gulf Coast region.

Although there is only weak shear and mid level lapse rates are
modest at best, most thermodynamic conditions are quite favorable
for convection to form. SBCAPE is at least 2000-2500 J/kg, Lifted
Indices are as low as -6 to -8C and Total Total Indices are
expected to exceed 50. This will support at least scattered
showers and thunderstorms once we reach our convective temp in the
lower and middle 90s around 1-2 pm. Coverage will initiate near
the sea breeze boundary close to the US-17 corridor, then
increases in coverage and intensity with the interaction of the
cold front with meso-scale boundaries. DCAPE of 1200-1600 J/kg,
perhaps even higher given mid level dry air and large dew point
depressions at the surface, will support a risk for at least
isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds. While the mid
levels are warm, there is still enough CAPE in the hail growth
zone to support at least small hail. Lightning will also be cause
for concern with the abnormally hot conditions. We have maintained
mention of severe weather in the HWO, with the most likely timing
between 2 and 7 pm. While widespread severe weather is not
expected, after coordination with SPC the region is now within a
"Marginal" risk of severe weather for at least pulse type storms
if not a few mutli-cellular clusters. Storm motion is from NW to
SE, so if you`re at the beaches today keep a sharp look at the sky
as storms will attempt to move back toward the coast late in the
day.

The cold front advancing slowly south tonight with be followed by
a inland wedge of high pressure nosing down across the Carolinas
and into Georgia. A more stable air mass will gradually overspread
the local zones from north to south, allowing for convection to
dwindle between sunset and midnight. We kept small chances going
however for central and southern counties overnight in closer
proximity to the cold front. Temps are able to "cool" to the lower
and middle 70s behind the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday and Sunday night: The pattern aloft will feature the center
of the large upper ridge across the lower Mississippi Valley, and
this will remain generally unchanged through the overnight. At the
surface, high pressure will be situated across New England with the
remnant front progged to be sitting across southeast Georgia in the
vicinity of the Altamaha. This lingering boundary will likely be the
focus for afternoon convection and that is where the best moisture
and highest pops are in place. Overall there isn`t much to hang your
hat on as far as the severe potential is concerned and the severe
threat is low. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler in the wake
of the front with low 90s just about everywhere. Overnight, any
lingering convection should dissipate quickly with the loss of
heating and the bulk of the period is dry. Expect another mild night
with lows only in the low to mid 70s.

Monday through Tuesday: Monday is expected to be the quietest day of
this stretch with the persistent ridge aloft and the dissipation of
the residual front. Monday pops are limited to the slight chance
range to account for just isolated convection. Then by Tuesday, the
coverage of diurnal showers and thunderstorms is expected to
increase as a front approaches from the west and deeper moisture
increases across the forecast area. No severe weather indices are
particularly impressive so the overall severe threat is low, but we
could see some locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures should be quite
typical of late June, 90 to the low 90s for highs and lows in the
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term forecast remains essentially unchanged and still
revolves around the front that is expected to push into the area and
become nearly stationary mid week. The front is then progged to
remain in the vicinity of the forecast area through late in the week
and will serve as a source of improved moisture and low level
convergence to support increased coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. For now, the forecast features mid to high range
chance pops each day with lingering pops through the overnight. As
the time draws closer and confidence grows in the placement of the
lingering front, more detail can be put into the forecast for which
periods are most likely to see the best rain chances. Highs will be
around 90 each day with lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Quiet conditions with VFR weather at both KCHS and KSAV through
early this afternoon. However, given a nearby cold front, the sea
breeze and various meso-scale boundaries there will be a risk for
scattered TSRA and at least temporary flight restrictions at both
terminals during the mid afternoon through early evening. Some of
the TSRA could produce strong winds and heavy rains, but until
trends are more identifiable, we have just VCTS with the latest
TAF set.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Low end chances for direct impacts from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms on Sunday. Chances then will
increase Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Nocturnal low level jetting and a tight gradient across the
coastal waters early this morning will ease some late this
morning and afternoon as a cold front starts to approach from the
north and the pressure gradient diminishes slightly. Southwest
winds will peak prior to 6-8 am at 15 or 20 kt, dropping off
several knots during the late morning, and backing around to more
south with sea breeze circulations this afternoon. Seas will hold
around 3-4 ft throughout.

Tonight: The cold front will slip into our South Carolina waters
this evening, making to our Georgia waters late, but still not
totally clearing the area until Sunday. A high pressure wedge
inland will push south and southwest in wake of the cold front,
maybe shifting some winds to northeast over the Charleston County
waters late. Otherwise south of the front winds will generally
remain from some southerly direction. No SCA headlines will be
necessary.

Mariners are advised that scattered showers and thunderstorms will
occur late today into tonight, some of which will be strong or
severe with damaging winds, heavy rains, lightning strikes and
perhaps a risk for waterspouts.

Sunday through Thursday: The pattern will feature high pressure
to the north and the lingering front to the south on Sunday which
will help to drive a modest easterly flow through the day. Winds
will remain onshore through Monday and will gradually become more
southerly Tuesday-Thursday. The strongest period of flow will
likely happen in this mid week time period as the pressure
gradient tightens in response to a cold front approaching from the
west. Seas will generally range 2-3 feet with some 4 footers
possible for the outer waters Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record high minimum for June 24th was tied at KCHS...79 degrees
previously set in 1998.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ040-042-047>049-051.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 250805
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
405 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front to the north will push southward across the area
today and Sunday, before dissipating through Monday. Another front
will impact the area beginning on Tuesday and will become nearly
stationary in the vicinity through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The trough over the east will pull further away into the Atlantic,
as deep ridging prevails from the Gulf of Mexico north to the
Great Lakes region. The local forecast zones will lie within a
northwest flow aloft between these two large scale features,
while simultaneously at the surface the Atlantic ridge is
suppressed across Florida in advance of a sluggish southward
moving cold front that arrives from the north this afternoon,
making it near the Savannah River by midnight. The front will
then push into our Georgia counties overnight.

It`ll be another hot and uncomfortably humid day across the vast
majority of the area. An indication of how hot it will be is that
we`re starting off close to 80F in several communities over the
coastal zones. Compressional heating in advance of the cold front,
deep offshore trajectories and 850 mb temps that will be near
18-20C or at or above the 90th percentile for this time of year
supports max temps in the mid and upper 90s everywhere near and
inland from the intra-coastal. If convection is delayed late
enough this afternoon then a few places far interior Georgia could
hit 100F within the highest theta-e air. Although westerly flow
within the planetary boundary layer will enable some mixing out
of dew points, probably no lower than 70-73 inland, when combined
with the excessive heat will support max heat indices of 105-109F
this afternoon. The coastal corridor from southern Charleston
County to McIntosh will not have quite the oppressive heat as
further inland, but their dew points will pool in at least the
middle 70s if not higher, also supportive of similar max heat
indices. We expanded the Heat Advisory for the afternoon and early
evening hours to include all but Berkeley, Dorchester, Charleston
and inland Colleton. However, even in these counties heat indices
will approach 105F, and if convection is delayed, then an
expansion of the Heat Advisory to include some or all of these
places could be required.

A remnant boundary from convection last evening is still observed
near and just off the coast of South Carolina this morning will
allow for a few showers/t-storms over the Atlantic, but they
should not impact land sections this morning. But that changes for
the afternoon, with the approach of the cold front, the formation
of the sea breeze boundary and various meso-scale boundaries that
also develop. These features will supply the necessary lift and
convergence and occur within a highly moist environment with PWAT
approaching 2 inches. There is also some forcing and difluence aloft
from a jet streak that arrives in South Carolina during peak
heating, along with mid level impulses that rounds the eastern
periphery of the ridge over the Gulf Coast region.

Although there is only weak shear and mid level lapse rates are
modest at best, most thermodynamic conditions are quite favorable
for convection to form. SBCAPE is at least 2000-2500 J/kg, Lifted
Indices are as low as -6 to -8C and Total Total Indices are
expected to exceed 50. This will support at least scattered
showers and thunderstorms once we reach our convective temp in the
lower and middle 90s around 1-2 pm. Coverage will initiate near
the sea breeze boundary close to the US-17 corridor, then
increases in coverage and intensity with the interaction of the
cold front with meso-scale boundaries. DCAPE of 1200-1600 J/kg,
perhaps even higher given mid level dry air and large dew point
depressions at the surface, will support a risk for at least
isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds. While the mid
levels are warm, there is still enough CAPE in the hail growth
zone to support at least small hail. Lightning will also be cause
for concern with the abnormally hot conditions. We have maintained
mention of severe weather in the HWO, with the most likely timing
between 2 and 7 pm. While widespread severe weather is not
expected, after coordination with SPC the region is now within a
"Marginal" risk of severe weather for at least pulse type storms
if not a few mutli-cellular clusters. Storm motion is from NW to
SE, so if you`re at the beaches today keep a sharp look at the sky
as storms will attempt to move back toward the coast late in the
day.

The cold front advancing slowly south tonight with be followed by
a inland wedge of high pressure nosing down across the Carolinas
and into Georgia. A more stable air mass will gradually overspread
the local zones from north to south, allowing for convection to
dwindle between sunset and midnight. We kept small chances going
however for central and southern counties overnight in closer
proximity to the cold front. Temps are able to "cool" to the lower
and middle 70s behind the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday and Sunday night: The pattern aloft will feature the center
of the large upper ridge across the lower Mississippi Valley, and
this will remain generally unchanged through the overnight. At the
surface, high pressure will be situated across New England with the
remnant front progged to be sitting across southeast Georgia in the
vicinity of the Altamaha. This lingering boundary will likely be the
focus for afternoon convection and that is where the best moisture
and highest pops are in place. Overall there isn`t much to hang your
hat on as far as the severe potential is concerned and the severe
threat is low. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler in the wake
of the front with low 90s just about everywhere. Overnight, any
lingering convection should dissipate quickly with the loss of
heating and the bulk of the period is dry. Expect another mild night
with lows only in the low to mid 70s.

Monday through Tuesday: Monday is expected to be the quietest day of
this stretch with the persistent ridge aloft and the dissipation of
the residual front. Monday pops are limited to the slight chance
range to account for just isolated convection. Then by Tuesday, the
coverage of diurnal showers and thunderstorms is expected to
increase as a front approaches from the west and deeper moisture
increases across the forecast area. No severe weather indices are
particularly impressive so the overall severe threat is low, but we
could see some locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures should be quite
typical of late June, 90 to the low 90s for highs and lows in the
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term forecast remains essentially unchanged and still
revolves around the front that is expected to push into the area and
become nearly stationary mid week. The front is then progged to
remain in the vicinity of the forecast area through late in the week
and will serve as a source of improved moisture and low level
convergence to support increased coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. For now, the forecast features mid to high range
chance pops each day with lingering pops through the overnight. As
the time draws closer and confidence grows in the placement of the
lingering front, more detail can be put into the forecast for which
periods are most likely to see the best rain chances. Highs will be
around 90 each day with lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Quiet conditions with VFR weather at both KCHS and KSAV through
early this afternoon. However, given a nearby cold front, the sea
breeze and various meso-scale boundaries there will be a risk for
scattered TSRA and at least temporary flight restrictions at both
terminals during the mid afternoon through early evening. Some of
the TSRA could produce strong winds and heavy rains, but until
trends are more identifiable, we have just VCTS with the latest
TAF set.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Low end chances for direct impacts from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms on Sunday. Chances then will
increase Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Nocturnal low level jetting and a tight gradient across the
coastal waters early this morning will ease some late this
morning and afternoon as a cold front starts to approach from the
north and the pressure gradient diminishes slightly. Southwest
winds will peak prior to 6-8 am at 15 or 20 kt, dropping off
several knots during the late morning, and backing around to more
south with sea breeze circulations this afternoon. Seas will hold
around 3-4 ft throughout.

Tonight: The cold front will slip into our South Carolina waters
this evening, making to our Georgia waters late, but still not
totally clearing the area until Sunday. A high pressure wedge
inland will push south and southwest in wake of the cold front,
maybe shifting some winds to northeast over the Charleston County
waters late. Otherwise south of the front winds will generally
remain from some southerly direction. No SCA headlines will be
necessary.

Mariners are advised that scattered showers and thunderstorms will
occur late today into tonight, some of which will be strong or
severe with damaging winds, heavy rains, lightning strikes and
perhaps a risk for waterspouts.

Sunday through Thursday: The pattern will feature high pressure
to the north and the lingering front to the south on Sunday which
will help to drive a modest easterly flow through the day. Winds
will remain onshore through Monday and will gradually become more
southerly Tuesday-Thursday. The strongest period of flow will
likely happen in this mid week time period as the pressure
gradient tightens in response to a cold front approaching from the
west. Seas will generally range 2-3 feet with some 4 footers
possible for the outer waters Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record high minimum for June 24th was tied at KCHS...79 degrees
previously set in 1998.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ040-042-047>049-051.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KFFC 250800
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
400 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

Upper ridge centered mainly over the MS valley will continue to
dominate the forecast area today. A weak front across central GA
combined with a weak short wave should help to focus afternoon and
evening thunderstorms. Afternoon heating with capes ranging from 1500
to 2500 could produce a few thunderstorms with strong winds and large
hail mainly for the area south of Columbus to Macon. Have kept slight
chance pops into the overnight hours. For Sunday...upper ridge stays
centered to our west but surface high pressure becomes centered off
the mid Atlantic coast. This puts GA in a broad low level easterly
flow. This should help moderate max temperatures for Sunday down a
few degrees. A heat advisory has been issued for today with expected
heat index values of 105 to around 107 for a portion of east and
central GA.

41


.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

No real substantive changes to the extended forecast trends with
this cycle. Weak upper-level ridging holds over the region through
the weekend...but as we get into the beginning of the long term
forecast period at the start of the work-week that pattern is
already transitioning into a northwest flow pattern...and eventually
evolves into broad upper troughing across the eastern U.S. by the
end of the week. As is typical for the season...best short wave
energy remains well north of the state but weaker upper forcing and
the presence of a persistent surface trough/front across the
forecast area should keep at least scattered...diurnally favored...
convection in the forecast through the period. Instability is not
expected to be extreme...and shear is limited as well...limiting the
potential for severe weather. However...with the potential for
strong thermodynamic influences each day with surface heating...a
few strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out...especially
if any weak or moderate short wave interaction coincides with
maximum daily heating.

20


&&


AVIATION...
06Z Update...
VFR ceilings and visibility through the period. Hi-res models are
developing convection during peak heating this afternoon...but
for now, will keep any prob30s to the south of KATL. Low end gusts
around 15kt possible tomorrow also.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

41

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          99  73  90  71 /  20  20  30  30
Atlanta         97  75  91  73 /  30  30  30  30
Blairsville     91  67  86  68 /  20  20  30  30
Cartersville    96  72  92  71 /  20  20  30  30
Columbus        98  76  95  74 /  30  30  40  30
Gainesville     96  73  90  71 /  20  20  30  30
Macon          100  75  94  73 /  30  30  30  30
Rome            97  73  93  72 /  20  20  30  30
Peachtree City  97  72  91  71 /  30  30  30  30
Vidalia         99  75  94  73 /  30  40  30  30

&&


.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EDT this evening FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...Crawford...
Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock...Hancock...Houston...
Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Laurens...Macon...
Monroe...Montgomery...Peach...Pulaski...Putnam...Schley...
Sumter...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...
Warren...Washington...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkinson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KCAE 250704
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
304 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front stalling near the south part of the forecast
area today will dissipate by Monday. Another cold front will move
into the area Tuesday and become about stationary. The pattern
supports scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The models show the front sinking into the south part of the
forecast area today. The front should be just south of the region
tonight. Convergence near the front supports thunderstorms but
shallow moisture and upper ridging extending into the area from
the west should help limit coverage. The NAM and GFS MOS indicated
low pops. The high-resolution models displayed scattered
coverage. Forecasted chance pops mainly near the time of maximum
heating. The NAM indicated moderate instability with surface-
based LIs -7 to -8. The thunderstorms may contain damaging wind.
Followed the guidance consensus for the temperature forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The models display a surface ridge extending from off the Mid
Atlantic coast southwestward into the forecast area Sunday. The
models depict a more diffuse front near the south part of the area
and upper ridging extending into the area from the west should
help keep moisture shallow. Weak convergence associated with the
diffuse front and possible sea breeze front plus heating supports
a small pop mainly in the south part of the forecast area. Leaned
toward the higher temperature guidance because of recent
verification.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF have upper ridging extending into the forecast
area early in the period with the ridging shifting farther
westward by the middle of the week. The models show deeper
moisture ahead of a cold front Tuesday supporting an increased
chance of thunderstorms. Deep moisture may continue during the
rest of the period with the front stalled near the area and an
amplifying upper trough. The GFS and ECMWF MOS have pops 20
percent or less Monday, and 30 to 50 percent during the rest of
the period. The MOS supports temperatures near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR fog possible at AGS/OGB during the pre-dawn hours. Otherwise
expect VFR conditions at the terminals. High and mid level clouds
will continue overnight. Expect little in the way of convection
overnight.

A cold front will sink southward into the area overnight
and stall over the southern Midlands or CSRA on Saturday. Light and
variable winds overnight will become northerly less than 10 knots
behind the front Saturday morning.  Isolated thunderstorms possible
Saturday but confidence low on location...possibly focus in the CSRA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection expected through
Monday. The chance for convection will increase Tuesday as a
cold front crosses the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KFFC 250537
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
135 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016



.UPDATE...
No major changes needed to the ongoing forecast. Regional radar
shows any tsra/shra activity that was approaching nw GA from AL
has weakened. The hi-res models don`t have a really good handle on
the activity across central TN, so am opting to keep the isolated
pops in for most areas through the overnight hours. Tweaked the
hourly temp/dew grids.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 234 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
Models in pretty good agreement through the short term. Very dry air
aloft has suppress convection today but still wouldnt be surprised
if there is an isolated tsra along any left over outflow boundaries
from this mornings convection across extreme north GA. MCS moving
into western TN has a trajectory toward the CWA however all models
dissipate it before getting here. Having said that will maintain
slight chance pops through the night over north and east GA. As the
main surface trough moves out of the Tennessee Valley and into
central GA Saturday...a back door front will move into northeast GA
late Saturday afternoon and across much of north GA Saturday night.
This will increase instability ahead of the front bringing a higher
chance of convection Saturday afternoon and into Saturday night.

Temperatures Saturday will rise into the upper 90s across parts of
central Georgia. Heat index values will approach 105 degrees
Saturday afternoon. However the biggest problem with max temps
Saturday is the amount of clouds expected. If more convection
develops than anticipated this will yield lower max temps. So will
hold off on issuing a Heat Advisory at this time.

17

LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
Weak to moderate upper- level ridging remains in place over the
region to start the extended forecast period. Ridge does not
appear to be strong enough to suppress all convection...especially
considering the proximity of surface boundaries and strong surface
heating. Pattern shifts to northwest upper flow early in the new
work week with continued scattered convection. Convection should
also continue to show a decidedly diurnal bias...however passing
short waves and surface boundaries will keep convective chances
from drying up completely overnight through the period.

High temperatures remain above seasonal normals into early next
week...but should moderate somewhat as the upper ridge retreats west
and is replaced with northwesterly upper flow.

20/16

AVIATION...
06Z Update...
VFR ceilings and visibility through the period. Hi-res models are
developing convection during peak heating this afternoon...but
for now, will keep any prob30s to the south of KATL. Low end gusts
around 15kt possible tomorrow also.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          75  98  72  90 /  30  30  30  30
Atlanta         76  96  75  89 /  20  30  30  30
Blairsville     69  90  68  88 /  20  30  20  30
Cartersville    74  96  73  90 /  20  30  30  30
Columbus        75  97  76  94 /  20  20  30  40
Gainesville     75  95  73  88 /  20  30  30  30
Macon           75  99  75  94 /  20  30  30  30
Rome            73  97  71  90 /  20  30  30  30
Peachtree City  74  97  73  90 /  20  30  30  30
Vidalia         76  97  76  93 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 250516
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
116 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front to the north will approach tonight, stalling across
the region Saturday and dissipating Sunday into Monday. Another
front will impact the area beginning on Tuesday and will become
nearly stationary in the vicinity through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Conditions will remain relatively tranquil, albeit unseasonably
warm and humid the remainder of the night. A little ground fog
where it rained last evening, but no significant visibility
restrictions will occur. Skies will average out to be partly
cloudy ahead of a cold front to the north, with a south-southwest
synoptic flow to produce lows only down into the mid and upper 70s
for most of us.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday...The day will start off fairly warm with a west/northwest
downsloping wind that helps keep a sea breeze pinned near the
coast. Strong surface heating along with deepening moisture ahead
of an approaching cold front from the north/northwest should
support heat index values between 105-108 degrees over most areas.
A Heat Advisory is now in effect from 11am-7pm on Saturday for
southeast Georgia and a few locations in coastal South Carolina
where afternoon temps peak in the mid to upper 90s. Some questions
in regards to cloud cover and peak temps will keep the rest of
southeast South Carolina out of the Heat Advisory for now.
However, should convective activity and cloud cover hold off until
early afternoon hours, a Heat Advisory will likely be needed for
much of southeast South Carolina as well.

As we head into early to mid afternoon hours the main weather
concern will be the possibility of severe weather from pulse type
thunderstorms. Mid-level ridging will gradually retreat to the
deep south as a series of h5 shortwaves rounds its eastern
periphery over the southeastern United States. The setup will
favor an unstable atmosphere along and ahead of a sfc cold front
approaching from the north/northwest during the afternoon.
Although shear is marginal, SBCAPE ranging between 1500-2500 J/kg,
DCAPE between 1200-1600 J/kg, lifted index values between -6 to -8
C along with modest mid level lapse rates and PWATS around 2.0
inches support scattered to numerous thunderstorms, some of which
could produce strong and damaging wind gusts. At this time, strong
to severe thunderstorms are possible beginning early afternoon in
southeast South Carolina and mid/late afternoon in southeast
Georgia as the cold front shifts slowly southward over the region.

Sunday and Monday...A cold front will drift southward over parts of
southeast Georgia before stalling and gradually dissipating early
next week. However, the atmosphere will remain fairly unstable where
deeper moisture and strong surface heating coincide along and
south of the weakening front. For this reason, a slight chance to
chance of showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast on
Sunday with highest chances in southeast Georgia. By Monday, mid
level energy appears to shift south of the area and a lull in
moisture is apparent, thus only a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms will remain in the forecast. Overall high temps
should be slightly cooler than previous days to start off the
week. In general, afternoon temps should peak in the upper 80s to
lower 90s each day. Overnight lows should range in the mid to
upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main forecast feature to watch in the long term period will be a
front currently progged to approach the area from the west/northwest
on Tuesday and then become nearly stationary in the vicinity of the
forecast area through Thursday. This set up, especially with the
gradual breakdown of the eastern extent of the upper ridge, will
favor increased diurnal convective activity through the middle of
the week. For now pops are generally advertised in the 40 percent
chance range, but this may increase as the time approaches and
confidence grows in which particular forecast periods could be the
most active. Temperatures will remain nearly steady state featuring
low 90s for highs and mid 70s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Quiet conditions with VFR weather at both KCHS and KSAV through
early Saturday afternoon. However, given a nearby cold front, the
sea breeze and various meso-scale boundaries there will be a risk
for scattered TSRA and at least temporary flight restrictions at
both terminals during the mid afternoon through early evening.
Some of the TSRA could produce strong winds and heavy rains, but
until trends are more identifiable, we have just VCTS with the
latest TAF set.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible with
Sunday afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms at the KCHS
and KSAV terminals. Flight restrictions possible again on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: The waters will be positioned between Atlantic high
pressure and a cold front approaching from the north. The front
is expected to remain north of the waters through sunrise. A
tightened pressure gradient and developing low level jet will keep
southwest winds in the 15-20 kt range, 15 kt or less in Charleston
Harbor. Seas of 3-4 feet.

Saturday through Wednesday: A cold front will approach the waters
from the north on Saturday and slowly shift southward before
dissipating late Sunday into Monday. The strongest winds through the
period are expected to occur Saturday and Sunday along and ahead of
cold front. Southwest winds up to 15-20 kt will be possible on
Saturday with another period of modest flow on Sunday during fropa.
For now it does not appear that conditions will warrant any Small
Craft Advisories, but we could potentially see wind gusts around 25
kt in northern SC waters and offshore GA waters until fropa occurs.
Thereafter, south to southwest flow will prevail with winds no
stronger than 15 knots through early next week. Seas will be highest
over the weekend, generally 2-4 feet which will then diminish to 1-3
ft for early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum for June 24th...
KCHS...79 set in 1998.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for SCZ047-048-051.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 250438
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1238 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front to the north will approach tonight, stalling across
the region Saturday and dissipating Sunday into Monday. Another
front will impact the area beginning on Tuesday and will become
nearly stationary in the vicinity through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Conditions will remain relatively tranquil, albeit unseasonably
warm and humid the remainder of the night. A little ground fog
where it rained last evening, but no significant visibility
restrictions will occur. Skies will average out to be partly
cloudy ahead of a cold front to the north, with a south-southwest
synoptic flow to produce lows only down into the mid and upper 70s
for most of us.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday...The day will start off fairly warm with a west/northwest
downsloping wind that helps keep a seabreeze pinned near the coast.
Strong sfc heating along with deepening moisture ahead of an
approaching cold front from the north/northwest should support heat
index values between 105-108 degrees over most areas. A Heat
Advisory is now in effect from 11am-7pm on Saturday for southeast
Georgia and a few locations in coastal South Carolina where
afternoon temps peak in the mid to upper 90s. Some questions in
regards to cloud cover and peak temps will keep the rest of
southeast South Carolina out of the Heat Advisory for now. However,
should convective activity and cloud cover hold off until early
afternoon hours, a Heat Advisory will likely be needed for much of
southeast South Carolina as well.

As we head into early to mid afternoon hours the main weather
concern will be the possibility of severe weather from pulse type
thunderstorms. Mid-lvl ridging will gradually retreat to the deep
south as a series of h5 shortwaves rounds its eastern periphery over
the southeastern United States. The setup will favor an unstable
atmosphere along and ahead of a sfc cold front approaching from the
north/northwest during the afternoon. Although shear is marginal,
SBCAPE ranging between 1500-2500 J/kg, DCAPE between 1200-1600 J/kg,
lifted index values between -6 to -8 C along with modest mid lvl
lapse rates and PWATS around 2.0 inches support scattered to
numerous thunderstorms, some of which could produce strong and
damaging wind gusts. At this time, strong to severe thunderstorms
are possible beginning early afternoon in southeast South Carolina
and mid/late afternoon in southeast Georgia as the cold front shifts
slowly southward over the region.

Sunday and Monday...A cold front will drift southward over parts of
southeast Georgia before stalling and gradually dissipating early
next week. However, the atmosphere will remain fairly unstable where
deeper moisture and strong sfc heating coincide along and south of
the weakening front. For this reason, a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast on Sunday with
highest chances in southeast Georgia. By Monday, mid lvl energy
appears to shift south of the area and a lull in moisture is
apparent, thus only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
will remain in the forecast. Overall high temps should be slightly
cooler than previous days to start off the week. In general,
afternoon temps should peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day.
Overnight lows should range in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main forecast feature to watch in the long term period will be a
front currently progged to approach the area from the west/northwest
on Tuesday and then become nearly stationary in the vicinity of the
forecast area through Thursday. This set up, especially with the
gradual breakdown of the eastern extent of the upper ridge, will
favor increased diurnal convective activity through the middle of
the week. For now pops are generally advertised in the 40 percent
chance range, but this may increase as the time approaches and
confidence grows in which particular forecast periods could be the
most active. Temperatures will remain nearly steady state featuring
low 90s for highs and mid 70s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Periodic flight restrictions are possible Saturday afternoon at
the CHS terminal and Saturday evening at the SAV terminal for
showers/thunderstorms, but confidence is too low to include in the
tafs at this time.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible with
Sunday afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms at the CHS and
SAV terminals. Flight restrictions possible again on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: The waters will be positioned between Atlantic high
pressure and a cold front approaching from the north. The front
is expected to remain north of the waters through sunrise. A
tightened pressure gradient and developing low level jet will keep
southwest winds in the 15-20 kt range, 15 kt or less in Charleston
Harbor. Seas of 3-4 feet.

Saturday through Wednesday: A cold front will approach the waters
from the north on Saturday and slowly shift southward before
dissipating late Sunday into Monday. The strongest winds through the
period are expected to occur Saturday and Sunday along and ahead of
cold front. Southwest winds up to 15-20 kt will be possible on
Saturday with another period of modest flow on Sunday during fropa.
For now it does not appear that conditions will warrant any Small
Craft Advisories, but we could potentially see wind gusts around 25
kt in northern SC waters and offshore GA waters until fropa occurs.
Thereafter, south to southwest flow will prevail with winds no
stronger than 15 knots through early next week. Seas will be highest
over the weekend, generally 2-4 feet which will then diminish to 1-3
ft for early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum for June 24th...
KCHS...79 set in 1998.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for SCZ047-048-051.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 250249
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1049 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sinking southward will move into the forecast area
tonight. The front will be stalled near the south part of the
forecast area Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms will be
associated with the front. Temperatures will be slightly cooler
behind the front over the weekend and it will be a little drier.
The front will remain nearly stationary near the area through next
week. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms by mid week
with temperatures near normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Earlier line of convection has shifted well to the SE of our
forecast area (FA). Surface boundary to our north will shift
south into our FA late tonight. This along with a weak upper
impulse or two, residual instability, and interaction with outflow
boundaries from previous convection, will still provide a slight
chance of thunderstorms tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The front becomes nearly stationary across the csra or southeast
Midlands early Saturday. The models suggest drier air advecting
south from North Carolina. A mid level cap may develop as upper
level ridge builds slightly. Instability should be weaker than
today and forcing mainly associated with surface convergence near
front...although a few weak mid level short waves may rotate south
from North Carolina around ridge. Chance pops mainly near the
front in the afternoon. Slight chance pops elsewhere. Temperatures
slightly cooler behind the front although above mos guidance due
to cool bias. Surface ridge centered off the Mid Atlantic coast
extending southwest across western Carolina Sunday and shallow
low-level moisture remains across the area. Front appears to be
more diffuse Sunday...but likely near the CSRA. Weak convergence
possible associated with front and possible sea breeze. Upper
level ridge and associated warm temperatures aloft should limit
convection. Mainly isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms
expected and temperatures slightly above guidance in the low to
mid 90s. Overnight lows in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The models have upper ridging extending into the forecast area
early in the period with the ridging shifting farther westward by
the middle of the week. A cold front approaches Tuesday as upper
trough moves across the Great Lakes and Northeastern States. Front
remains in the area through the week. Deep moisture may develop
late weak as upper level trough amplifies in the Mississippi
valley late week. Chance of mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms each day...possibly increasing late in the week with
temperatures near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR fog possible at AGS/OGB during the pre-dawn hours. Otherwise
expect VFR conditions at the terminals. High and mid level clouds
will continue overnight. Expect little in the way of convection
overnight.

A cold front will sink southward into the area overnight
and stall over the southern Midlands or CSRA on Saturday. Light and
variable winds overnight will become northerly less than 10 knots
behind the front Saturday morning.  Isolated thunderstorms possible
Saturday but confidence low on location...possibly focus in the CSRA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection expected through
Monday. The chance for convection will increase Tuesday as a
cold front crosses the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 250212
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1012 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front to the north today will approach tonight, stalling
across the region Saturday and dissipating Sunday into Monday.
Another front will impact the area beginning on Tuesday and will
become nearly stationary in the vicinity through the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Conditions across the Berkeley and Charleston County area have
quieted down as a mid level short wave was exiting the northern
South Carolina Coast and instability was beginning to wane. On
the evening update we maintained mostly slight chance pops far
northern zones as isolated activity with trailing boundaries
remain possible. Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies will
persist overnight from north to south. Not much change to temps
on this update, but we did initialize with some lower readings
where rain fell around the Santee Cooper Lakes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday...The day will start off fairly warm with a west/northwest
downsloping wind that helps keep a seabreeze pinned near the coast.
Strong sfc heating along with deepening moisture ahead of an
approaching cold front from the north/northwest should support heat
index values between 105-108 degrees over most areas. A Heat
Advisory is now in effect from 11am-7pm on Saturday for southeast
Georgia and a few locations in coastal South Carolina where
afternoon temps peak in the mid to upper 90s. Some questions in
regards to cloud cover and peak temps will keep the rest of
southeast South Carolina out of the Heat Advisory for now. However,
should convective activity and cloud cover hold off until early
afternoon hours, a Heat Advisory will likely be needed for much of
southeast South Carolina as well.

As we head into early to mid afternoon hours the main weather
concern will be the possibility of severe weather from pulse type
thunderstorms. Mid-lvl ridging will gradually retreat to the deep
south as a series of h5 shortwaves rounds its eastern periphery over
the southeastern United States. The setup will favor an unstable
atmosphere along and ahead of a sfc cold front approaching from the
north/northwest during the afternoon. Although shear is marginal,
SBCAPE ranging between 1500-2500 J/kg, DCAPE between 1200-1600 J/kg,
lifted index values between -6 to -8 C along with modest mid lvl
lapse rates and PWATS around 2.0 inches support scattered to
numerous thunderstorms, some of which could produce strong and
damaging wind gusts. At this time, strong to severe thunderstorms
are possible beginning early afternoon in southeast South Carolina
and mid/late afternoon in southeast Georgia as the cold front shifts
slowly southward over the region.

Sunday and Monday...A cold front will drift southward over parts of
southeast Georgia before stalling and gradually dissipating early
next week. However, the atmosphere will remain fairly unstable where
deeper moisture and strong sfc heating coincide along and south of
the weakening front. For this reason, a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast on Sunday with
highest chances in southeast Georgia. By Monday, mid lvl energy
appears to shift south of the area and a lull in moisture is
apparent, thus only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
will remain in the forecast. Overall high temps should be slightly
cooler than previous days to start off the week. In general,
afternoon temps should peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day.
Overnight lows should range in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main forecast feature to watch in the long term period will be a
front currently progged to approach the area from the west/northwest
on Tuesday and then become nearly stationary in the vicinity of the
forecast area through Thursday. This set up, especially with the
gradual breakdown of the eastern extent of the upper ridge, will
favor increased diurnal convective activity through the middle of
the week. For now pops are generally advertised in the 40 percent
chance range, but this may increase as the time approaches and
confidence grows in which particular forecast periods could be the
most active. Temperatures will remain nearly steady state featuring
low 90s for highs and mid 70s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There is a low chance for flight restrictions at the CHS terminal
between 00z-02z tonight due to isolated showers and/or
thunderstorms. Have only included vicinity showers at this time
given recent radar trends. Another round of flight restrictions is
possible Saturday afternoon at the CHS terminal and Saturday
evening at the SAV terminal for showers/thunderstorms, but
confidence is too low to include in the tafs at this time.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible with
Saturday and Sunday afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms at
the CHS and SAV terminals. Flight restrictions possible again on
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Tstms earlier off the Charleston County coast interrupted
the sw flow but with the cold front still off to the north, a
return to moderate sw winds should return overnight. Otherwise,
the waters will be positioned between Atlantic high pressure and a
cold front approaching from the northwest. The front is expected
to remain north of the waters through sunrise. A tightened
pressure gradient and developing low level jet will keep southwest
winds in the 15-20 kt range. Seas of 2-3 feet will build to 3-4
feet late.

Saturday through Wednesday: A cold front will approach the waters
from the north on Saturday and slowly shift southward before
dissipating late Sunday into Monday. The strongest winds through the
period are expected to occur Saturday and Sunday along and ahead of
cold front. Southwest winds up to 15-20 kt will be possible on
Saturday with another period of modest flow on Sunday during fropa.
For now it does not appear that conditions will warrant any Small
Craft Advisories, but we could potentially see wind gusts around 25
kt in northern SC waters and offshore GA waters until fropa occurs.
Thereafter, south to southwest flow will prevail with winds no
stronger than 15 knots through early next week. Seas will be highest
over the weekend, generally 2-4 feet which will then diminish to 1-3
ft for early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum for June 24th...
KCHS...79 set in 1998.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for SCZ047-048-
     051.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KFFC 250141
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
941 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016



.UPDATE...
No major changes needed to the ongoing forecast. Regional radar
shows any tsra/shra activity that was approaching nw GA from AL
has weakened. The hi-res models don`t have a really good handle on
the activity across central TN, so am opting to keep the isolated
pops in for most areas through the overnight hours. Tweaked the
hourly temp/dew grids.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 234 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
Models in pretty good agreement through the short term. Very dry air
aloft has suppress convection today but still wouldnt be surprised
if there is an isolated tsra along any left over outflow boundaries
from this mornings convection across extreme north GA. MCS moving
into western TN has a trajectory toward the CWA however all models
dissipate it before getting here. Having said that will maintain
slight chance pops through the night over north and east GA. As the
main surface trough moves out of the Tennessee Valley and into
central GA Saturday...a back door front will move into northeast GA
late Saturday afternoon and across much of north GA Saturday night.
This will increase instability ahead of the front bringing a higher
chance of convection Saturday afternoon and into Saturday night.

Temperatures Saturday will rise into the upper 90s across parts of
central Georgia. Heat index values will approach 105 degrees
Saturday afternoon. However the biggest problem with max temps
Saturday is the amount of clouds expected. If more convection
develops than anticipated this will yield lower max temps. So will
hold off on issuing a Heat Advisory at this time.

17

LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
Weak to moderate upper- level ridging remains in place over the
region to start the extended forecast period. Ridge does not
appear to be strong enough to suppress all convection...especially
considering the proximity of surface boundaries and strong surface
heating. Pattern shifts to northwest upper flow early in the new
work week with continued scattered convection. Convection should
also continue to show a decidedly diurnal bias...however passing
short waves and surface boundaries will keep convective chances
from drying up completely overnight through the period.

High temperatures remain above seasonal normals into early next
week...but should moderate somewhat as the upper ridge retreats west
and is replaced with northwesterly upper flow.

20/16

AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR cigs/vsbys through the period. Hi-res models are developing
precip during prime time heating tomorrow, but for now, will keep
any prob30s to the south of ATL. Low end gusts around 15kt
possible tomorrow too.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          75  98  72  90 /  30  30  30  30
Atlanta         76  96  75  89 /  20  30  30  30
Blairsville     69  90  68  88 /  20  30  20  30
Cartersville    74  96  73  90 /  20  30  30  30
Columbus        75  97  76  94 /  20  20  30  40
Gainesville     75  95  73  88 /  20  30  30  30
Macon           75  99  75  94 /  20  30  30  30
Rome            73  97  71  90 /  20  30  30  30
Peachtree City  74  97  73  90 /  20  30  30  30
Vidalia         76  97  76  93 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 242347
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
747 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sinking southward will move into the forecast area
tonight. The front will be stalled near the south part of the
forecast area Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms will be
associated with the front. Temperatures will be slightly cooler
behind the front over the weekend and it will be a little drier.
The front will remain nearly stationary near the area through next
week. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms by mid week
with temperatures near normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Earlier line of convection has shifted well to the SE of our
forecast area (FA). Surface boundary to our north will shift
south into our FA late tonight. This along with a weak upper
impulse or two, residual instability, and interaction with outflow
boundaries from previous convection, will still provide a slight
chance of thunderstorms tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The front becomes nearly stationary across the csra or southeast
Midlands early Saturday. The models suggest drier air advecting
south from North Carolina. A mid level cap may develop as upper
level ridge builds slightly. Instability should be weaker than
today and forcing mainly associated with surface convergence near
front...although a few weak mid level short waves may rotate south
from North Carolina around ridge. Chance pops mainly near the
front in the afternoon. Slight chance pops elsewhere. Temperatures
slightly cooler behind the front although above mos guidance due
to cool bias. Surface ridge centered off the Mid Atlantic coast
extending southwest across western Carolina Sunday and shallow
low-level moisture remains across the area. Front appears to be
more diffuse Sunday...but likely near the CSRA. Weak convergence
possible associated with front and possible sea breeze. Upper
level ridge and associated warm temperatures aloft should limit
convection. Mainly isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms
expected and temperatures slightly above guidance in the low to
mid 90s. Overnight lows in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The models have upper ridging extending into the forecast area
early in the period with the ridging shifting farther westward by
the middle of the week. A cold front approaches Tuesday as upper
trough moves across the Great Lakes and Northeastern States. Front
remains in the area through the week. Deep moisture may develop
late weak as upper level trough amplifies in the Mississippi
valley late week. Chance of mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms each day...possibly increasing late in the week with
temperatures near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through the 24 hour TAF
forecast period.

Widespread convection has moved east of the TAF sites. Mainly mid
and high level clouds will cross the area overnight.

A cold front will sink southward into the area overnight and stall
over the southern Midlands or CSRA on Saturday. Light and variable
winds overnight will become northerly less than 10 knots behind the
front Saturday morning.  Isolated thunderstorms possible Saturday
but confidence low on location...possibly focus in the CSRA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal convection expected through
Monday. The chance for convection will increase Tuesday as a
cold front crosses the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 242340
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
740 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front to the north today will approach tonight, stalling
across the region Saturday and dissipating Sunday into Monday.
Another front will impact the area beginning on Tuesday and will
become nearly stationary in the vicinity through the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A cold front will slowly shift southeast across the western and
central Carolinas through the night. General model consensus has
the front staying just north and west of the local area through
sunrise. The persistent upper ridge over the southern U.S. will
continue to weaken as a series of shortwaves drop out of the
northwest flow, traversing the area.

Hi-resolution models continue to show a broken line of showers and
thunderstorms showers/thunderstorms moving into our interior South
Carolina counties and making a run for the coast into early tonight.
0-6 km shear of 25-30 knots along with DCAPE between 1000-1500 J/kg
ahead of the broken line support the possibility of a damaging wind
threat should a storm become strong and/or severe. At this time,
the severe weather threat is expected to remain isolated and north
of I-26 in southeast South Carolina for the next couple hours. The
overall threat of severe weather should decline as daytime heating
is lost with sunset. However, chances of showers and thunderstorms
will remain in the forecast until about midnight with greatest
chances along beaches in Charleston County. Cloud cover should
hang around through much of the night across the northern zones,
while skies stay mostly clear across southeast Georgia.
Temperatures will likely remain mild, only cooling into the
mid/upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday...The day will start off fairly warm with a west/northwest
downsloping wind that helps keep a seabreeze pinned near the coast.
Strong sfc heating along with deepening moisture ahead of an
approaching cold front from the north/northwest should support heat
index values between 105-108 degrees over most areas. A Heat
Advisory is now in effect from 11am-7pm on Saturday for southeast
Georgia and a few locations in coastal South Carolina where
afternoon temps peak in the mid to upper 90s. Some questions in
regards to cloud cover and peak temps will keep the rest of
southeast South Carolina out of the Heat Advisory for now. However,
should convective activity and cloud cover hold off until early
afternoon hours, a Heat Advisory will likely be needed for much of
southeast South Carolina as well.

As we head into early to mid afternoon hours the main weather
concern will be the possibility of severe weather from pulse type
thunderstorms. Mid-lvl ridging will gradually retreat to the deep
south as a series of h5 shortwaves rounds its eastern periphery over
the southeastern United States. The setup will favor an unstable
atmosphere along and ahead of a sfc cold front approaching from the
north/northwest during the afternoon. Although shear is marginal,
SBCAPE ranging between 1500-2500 J/kg, DCAPE between 1200-1600 J/kg,
lifted index values between -6 to -8 C along with modest mid lvl
lapse rates and PWATS around 2.0 inches support scattered to
numerous thunderstorms, some of which could produce strong and
damaging wind gusts. At this time, strong to severe thunderstorms
are possible beginning early afternoon in southeast South Carolina
and mid/late afternoon in southeast Georgia as the cold front shifts
slowly southward over the region.

Sunday and Monday...A cold front will drift southward over parts of
southeast Georgia before stalling and gradually dissipating early
next week. However, the atmosphere will remain fairly unstable where
deeper moisture and strong sfc heating coincide along and south of
the weakening front. For this reason, a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast on Sunday with
highest chances in southeast Georgia. By Monday, mid lvl energy
appears to shift south of the area and a lull in moisture is
apparent, thus only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
will remain in the forecast. Overall high temps should be slightly
cooler than previous days to start off the week. In general,
afternoon temps should peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day.
Overnight lows should range in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main forecast feature to watch in the long term period will be a
front currently progged to approach the area from the west/northwest
on Tuesday and then become nearly stationary in the vicinity of the
forecast area through Thursday. This set up, especially with the
gradual breakdown of the eastern extent of the upper ridge, will
favor increased diurnal convective activity through the middle of
the week. For now pops are generally advertised in the 40 percent
chance range, but this may increase as the time approaches and
confidence grows in which particular forecast periods could be the
most active. Temperatures will remain nearly steady state featuring
low 90s for highs and mid 70s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There is a low chance for flight restrictions at the CHS terminal
between 00z-02z tonight due to isolated showers and/or
thunderstorms. Have only included vicinity showers at this time
given recent radar trends. Another round of flight restrictions is
possible Saturday afternoon at the CHS terminal and Saturday
evening at the SAV terminal for showers/thunderstorms, but
confidence is too low to include in the tafs at this time.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible with
Saturday and Sunday afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms at
the CHS and SAV terminals. Flight restrictions possible again on
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: A few thunderstorms will be possible over northern South
Carolina waters this evening and early tonight. Strong to damaging
wind gusts will be possible as storms move offshore, mainly north
of Charleston, SC. Otherwise, the waters will be positioned
between Atlantic high pressure and a cold front approaching from
the northwest. The front is expected to remain north of the waters
through sunrise. A tightened pressure gradient and developing low
level jet will keep southwest winds in the 15-20 kt range, with a
few higher gusts. Conditions are expected to stay below Small
Craft Advisory criteria at this time, although a few gusts could
approach 25 kt across the northern South Carolina waters. Seas of
2-3 feet will build to 3-4 feet late.

Saturday through Wednesday: A cold front will approach the waters
from the north on Saturday and slowly shift southward before
dissipating late Sunday into Monday. The strongest winds through the
period are expected to occur Saturday and Sunday along and ahead of
cold front. Southwest winds up to 15-20 kt will be possible on
Saturday with another period of modest flow on Sunday during fropa.
For now it does not appear that conditions will warrant any Small
Craft Advisories, but we could potentially see wind gusts around 25
kt in northern SC waters and offshore GA waters until fropa occurs.
Thereafter, south to southwest flow will prevail with winds no
stronger than 15 knots through early next week. Seas will be highest
over the weekend, generally 2-4 feet which will then diminish to 1-3
ft for early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum for June 24th...
KCHS...79 set in 1998.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for SCZ047-048-
     051.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KFFC 242322
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
722 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 234 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
Models in pretty good agreement through the short term. Very dry air
aloft has suppress convection today but still wouldnt be surprised
if there is an isolated tsra along any left over outflow boundaries
from this mornings convection across extreme north GA. MCS moving
into western TN has a trajectory toward the CWA however all models
dissipate it before getting here. Having said that will maintain
slight chance pops through the night over north and east GA. As the
main surface trough moves out of the Tennessee Valley and into
central GA Saturday...a back door front will move into northeast GA
late Saturday afternoon and across much of north GA Saturday night.
This will increase instability ahead of the front bringing a higher
chance of convection Saturday afternoon and into Saturday night.

Temperatures Saturday will rise into the upper 90s across parts of
central Georgia. Heat index values will approach 105 degrees
Saturday afternoon. However the biggest problem with max temps
Saturday is the amount of clouds expected. If more convection
develops than anticipated this will yield lower max temps. So will
hold off on issuing a Heat Advisory at this time.

17

LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
Weak to moderate upper- level ridging remains in place over the
region to start the extended forecast period. Ridge does not
appear to be strong enough to suppress all convection...especially
considering the proximity of surface boundaries and strong surface
heating. Pattern shifts to northwest upper flow early in the new
work week with continued scattered convection. Convection should
also continue to show a decidedly diurnal bias...however passing
short waves and surface boundaries will keep convective chances
from drying up completely overnight through the period.

High temperatures remain above seasonal normals into early next
week...but should moderate somewhat as the upper ridge retreats west
and is replaced with northwesterly upper flow.

20/16



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR cigs/vsbys through the period. Hi-res models are developing
precip during prime time heating tomorrow, but for now, will keep
any prob30s to the south of ATL. Low end gusts around 15kt
possible tomorrow too.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          75  98  72  90 /  30  30  30  30
Atlanta         76  96  75  89 /  20  30  30  30
Blairsville     69  90  68  88 /  20  30  20  30
Cartersville    74  96  73  90 /  20  30  30  30
Columbus        75  97  76  94 /  20  20  30  40
Gainesville     75  95  73  88 /  20  30  30  30
Macon           75  99  75  94 /  20  30  30  30
Rome            73  97  71  90 /  20  30  30  30
Peachtree City  74  97  73  90 /  20  30  30  30
Vidalia         76  97  76  93 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 242322
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
722 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 234 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
Models in pretty good agreement through the short term. Very dry air
aloft has suppress convection today but still wouldnt be surprised
if there is an isolated tsra along any left over outflow boundaries
from this mornings convection across extreme north GA. MCS moving
into western TN has a trajectory toward the CWA however all models
dissipate it before getting here. Having said that will maintain
slight chance pops through the night over north and east GA. As the
main surface trough moves out of the Tennessee Valley and into
central GA Saturday...a back door front will move into northeast GA
late Saturday afternoon and across much of north GA Saturday night.
This will increase instability ahead of the front bringing a higher
chance of convection Saturday afternoon and into Saturday night.

Temperatures Saturday will rise into the upper 90s across parts of
central Georgia. Heat index values will approach 105 degrees
Saturday afternoon. However the biggest problem with max temps
Saturday is the amount of clouds expected. If more convection
develops than anticipated this will yield lower max temps. So will
hold off on issuing a Heat Advisory at this time.

17

LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
Weak to moderate upper- level ridging remains in place over the
region to start the extended forecast period. Ridge does not
appear to be strong enough to suppress all convection...especially
considering the proximity of surface boundaries and strong surface
heating. Pattern shifts to northwest upper flow early in the new
work week with continued scattered convection. Convection should
also continue to show a decidedly diurnal bias...however passing
short waves and surface boundaries will keep convective chances
from drying up completely overnight through the period.

High temperatures remain above seasonal normals into early next
week...but should moderate somewhat as the upper ridge retreats west
and is replaced with northwesterly upper flow.

20/16



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR cigs/vsbys through the period. Hi-res models are developing
precip during prime time heating tomorrow, but for now, will keep
any prob30s to the south of ATL. Low end gusts around 15kt
possible tomorrow too.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          75  98  72  90 /  30  30  30  30
Atlanta         76  96  75  89 /  20  30  30  30
Blairsville     69  90  68  88 /  20  30  20  30
Cartersville    74  96  73  90 /  20  30  30  30
Columbus        75  97  76  94 /  20  20  30  40
Gainesville     75  95  73  88 /  20  30  30  30
Macon           75  99  75  94 /  20  30  30  30
Rome            73  97  71  90 /  20  30  30  30
Peachtree City  74  97  73  90 /  20  30  30  30
Vidalia         76  97  76  93 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 242308
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
708 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front to the north today will approach tonight, stalling
across the region Saturday and dissipating Sunday into Monday.
Another front will impact the area beginning on Tuesday and will
become nearly stationary in the vicinity through the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A cold front will slowly shift southeast across the western and
central Carolinas through the night. General model consensus has
the front staying just north and west of the local area through
sunrise. The persistent upper ridge over the southern U.S. will
continue to weaken as a series of shortwaves drop out of the
northwest flow, traversing the area.

Hi-resolution models continue to show a broken line of showers and
thunderstorms showers/thunderstorms moving into our interior South
Carolina counties and making a run for the coast into early tonight.
0-6 km shear of 25-30 knots along with DCAPE between 1000-1500 J/kg
ahead of the broken line support the possibility of a damaging wind
threat should a storm become strong and/or severe. At this time,
the severe weather threat is expected to remain isolated and north
of I-26 in southeast South Carolina for the next couple hours. The
overall threat of severe weather should decline as daytime heating
is lost with sunset. However, chances of showers and thunderstorms
will remain in the forecast until about midnight with greatest
chances along beaches in Charleston County. Cloud cover should
hang around through much of the night across the northern zones,
while skies stay mostly clear across southeast Georgia.
Temperatures will likely remain mild, only cooling into the
mid/upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday...The day will start off fairly warm with a west/northwest
downsloping wind that helps keep a seabreeze pinned near the coast.
Strong sfc heating along with deepening moisture ahead of an
approaching cold front from the north/northwest should support heat
index values between 105-108 degrees over most areas. A Heat
Advisory is now in effect from 11am-7pm on Saturday for southeast
Georgia and a few locations in coastal South Carolina where
afternoon temps peak in the mid to upper 90s. Some questions in
regards to cloud cover and peak temps will keep the rest of
southeast South Carolina out of the Heat Advisory for now. However,
should convective activity and cloud cover hold off until early
afternoon hours, a Heat Advisory will likely be needed for much of
southeast South Carolina as well.

As we head into early to mid afternoon hours the main weather
concern will be the possibility of severe weather from pulse type
thunderstorms. Mid-lvl ridging will gradually retreat to the deep
south as a series of h5 shortwaves rounds its eastern periphery over
the southeastern United States. The setup will favor an unstable
atmosphere along and ahead of a sfc cold front approaching from the
north/northwest during the afternoon. Although shear is marginal,
SBCAPE ranging between 1500-2500 J/kg, DCAPE between 1200-1600 J/kg,
lifted index values between -6 to -8 C along with modest mid lvl
lapse rates and PWATS around 2.0 inches support scattered to
numerous thunderstorms, some of which could produce strong and
damaging wind gusts. At this time, strong to severe thunderstorms
are possible beginning early afternoon in southeast South Carolina
and mid/late afternoon in southeast Georgia as the cold front shifts
slowly southward over the region.

Sunday and Monday...A cold front will drift southward over parts of
southeast Georgia before stalling and gradually dissipating early
next week. However, the atmosphere will remain fairly unstable where
deeper moisture and strong sfc heating coincide along and south of
the weakening front. For this reason, a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast on Sunday with
highest chances in southeast Georgia. By Monday, mid lvl energy
appears to shift south of the area and a lull in moisture is
apparent, thus only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
will remain in the forecast. Overall high temps should be slightly
cooler than previous days to start off the week. In general,
afternoon temps should peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day.
Overnight lows should range in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main forecast feature to watch in the long term period will be a
front currently progged to approach the area from the west/northwest
on Tuesday and then become nearly stationary in the vicinity of the
forecast area through Thursday. This set up, especially with the
gradual breakdown of the eastern extent of the upper ridge, will
favor increased diurnal convective activity through the middle of
the week. For now pops are generally advertised in the 40 percent
chance range, but this may increase as the time approaches and
confidence grows in which particular forecast periods could be the
most active. Temperatures will remain nearly steady state featuring
low 90s for highs and mid 70s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR through 18z Saturday. There is a low chance for flight
restrictions between 00z-03z early tonight due to isolated
showers and thunderstorms.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible with
Saturday and Sunday afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms at
the CHS and SAV terminals. Flight restrictions possible again on
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: A few thunderstorms will be possible over northern South
Carolina waters this evening and early tonight. Strong to damaging
wind gusts will be possible as storms move offshore, mainly north
of Charleston, SC. Otherwise, the waters will be positioned
between Atlantic high pressure and a cold front approaching from
the northwest. The front is expected to remain north of the waters
through sunrise. A tightened pressure gradient and developing low
level jet will keep southwest winds in the 15-20 kt range, with a
few higher gusts. Conditions are expected to stay below Small
Craft Advisory criteria at this time, although a few gusts could
approach 25 kt across the northern South Carolina waters. Seas of
2-3 feet will build to 3-4 feet late.

Saturday through Wednesday: A cold front will approach the waters
from the north on Saturday and slowly shift southward before
dissipating late Sunday into Monday. The strongest winds through the
period are expected to occur Saturday and Sunday along and ahead of
cold front. Southwest winds up to 15-20 kt will be possible on
Saturday with another period of modest flow on Sunday during fropa.
For now it does not appear that conditions will warrant any Small
Craft Advisories, but we could potentially see wind gusts around 25
kt in northern SC waters and offshore GA waters until fropa occurs.
Thereafter, south to southwest flow will prevail with winds no
stronger than 15 knots through early next week. Seas will be highest
over the weekend, generally 2-4 feet which will then diminish to 1-3
ft for early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum for June 24th...
KCHS...79 set in 1998.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for SCZ047-048-
     051.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...DPB
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 242308
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
708 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front to the north today will approach tonight, stalling
across the region Saturday and dissipating Sunday into Monday.
Another front will impact the area beginning on Tuesday and will
become nearly stationary in the vicinity through the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A cold front will slowly shift southeast across the western and
central Carolinas through the night. General model consensus has
the front staying just north and west of the local area through
sunrise. The persistent upper ridge over the southern U.S. will
continue to weaken as a series of shortwaves drop out of the
northwest flow, traversing the area.

Hi-resolution models continue to show a broken line of showers and
thunderstorms showers/thunderstorms moving into our interior South
Carolina counties and making a run for the coast into early tonight.
0-6 km shear of 25-30 knots along with DCAPE between 1000-1500 J/kg
ahead of the broken line support the possibility of a damaging wind
threat should a storm become strong and/or severe. At this time,
the severe weather threat is expected to remain isolated and north
of I-26 in southeast South Carolina for the next couple hours. The
overall threat of severe weather should decline as daytime heating
is lost with sunset. However, chances of showers and thunderstorms
will remain in the forecast until about midnight with greatest
chances along beaches in Charleston County. Cloud cover should
hang around through much of the night across the northern zones,
while skies stay mostly clear across southeast Georgia.
Temperatures will likely remain mild, only cooling into the
mid/upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday...The day will start off fairly warm with a west/northwest
downsloping wind that helps keep a seabreeze pinned near the coast.
Strong sfc heating along with deepening moisture ahead of an
approaching cold front from the north/northwest should support heat
index values between 105-108 degrees over most areas. A Heat
Advisory is now in effect from 11am-7pm on Saturday for southeast
Georgia and a few locations in coastal South Carolina where
afternoon temps peak in the mid to upper 90s. Some questions in
regards to cloud cover and peak temps will keep the rest of
southeast South Carolina out of the Heat Advisory for now. However,
should convective activity and cloud cover hold off until early
afternoon hours, a Heat Advisory will likely be needed for much of
southeast South Carolina as well.

As we head into early to mid afternoon hours the main weather
concern will be the possibility of severe weather from pulse type
thunderstorms. Mid-lvl ridging will gradually retreat to the deep
south as a series of h5 shortwaves rounds its eastern periphery over
the southeastern United States. The setup will favor an unstable
atmosphere along and ahead of a sfc cold front approaching from the
north/northwest during the afternoon. Although shear is marginal,
SBCAPE ranging between 1500-2500 J/kg, DCAPE between 1200-1600 J/kg,
lifted index values between -6 to -8 C along with modest mid lvl
lapse rates and PWATS around 2.0 inches support scattered to
numerous thunderstorms, some of which could produce strong and
damaging wind gusts. At this time, strong to severe thunderstorms
are possible beginning early afternoon in southeast South Carolina
and mid/late afternoon in southeast Georgia as the cold front shifts
slowly southward over the region.

Sunday and Monday...A cold front will drift southward over parts of
southeast Georgia before stalling and gradually dissipating early
next week. However, the atmosphere will remain fairly unstable where
deeper moisture and strong sfc heating coincide along and south of
the weakening front. For this reason, a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast on Sunday with
highest chances in southeast Georgia. By Monday, mid lvl energy
appears to shift south of the area and a lull in moisture is
apparent, thus only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
will remain in the forecast. Overall high temps should be slightly
cooler than previous days to start off the week. In general,
afternoon temps should peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day.
Overnight lows should range in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main forecast feature to watch in the long term period will be a
front currently progged to approach the area from the west/northwest
on Tuesday and then become nearly stationary in the vicinity of the
forecast area through Thursday. This set up, especially with the
gradual breakdown of the eastern extent of the upper ridge, will
favor increased diurnal convective activity through the middle of
the week. For now pops are generally advertised in the 40 percent
chance range, but this may increase as the time approaches and
confidence grows in which particular forecast periods could be the
most active. Temperatures will remain nearly steady state featuring
low 90s for highs and mid 70s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR through 18z Saturday. There is a low chance for flight
restrictions between 00z-03z early tonight due to isolated
showers and thunderstorms.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible with
Saturday and Sunday afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms at
the CHS and SAV terminals. Flight restrictions possible again on
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: A few thunderstorms will be possible over northern South
Carolina waters this evening and early tonight. Strong to damaging
wind gusts will be possible as storms move offshore, mainly north
of Charleston, SC. Otherwise, the waters will be positioned
between Atlantic high pressure and a cold front approaching from
the northwest. The front is expected to remain north of the waters
through sunrise. A tightened pressure gradient and developing low
level jet will keep southwest winds in the 15-20 kt range, with a
few higher gusts. Conditions are expected to stay below Small
Craft Advisory criteria at this time, although a few gusts could
approach 25 kt across the northern South Carolina waters. Seas of
2-3 feet will build to 3-4 feet late.

Saturday through Wednesday: A cold front will approach the waters
from the north on Saturday and slowly shift southward before
dissipating late Sunday into Monday. The strongest winds through the
period are expected to occur Saturday and Sunday along and ahead of
cold front. Southwest winds up to 15-20 kt will be possible on
Saturday with another period of modest flow on Sunday during fropa.
For now it does not appear that conditions will warrant any Small
Craft Advisories, but we could potentially see wind gusts around 25
kt in northern SC waters and offshore GA waters until fropa occurs.
Thereafter, south to southwest flow will prevail with winds no
stronger than 15 knots through early next week. Seas will be highest
over the weekend, generally 2-4 feet which will then diminish to 1-3
ft for early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum for June 24th...
KCHS...79 set in 1998.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for SCZ047-048-
     051.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...DPB
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 242224
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
624 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sinking southward will move into the forecast area
tonight. The front will be stalled near the south part of the
forecast area Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms will be
associated with the front. Temperatures will be slightly cooler
behind the front over the weekend and it will be a little drier.
The front will remain nearly stationary near the area through next
week. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms by mid week
with temperatures near normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Moderate to strong instability in the east Midlands with
moderately strong sheared environment. Line of severe
thunderstorms moving across the eastern midlands. Main threat has
been damaging wind gusts associated multicells with coldpools.
High resolution models suggest once this convection moves
east...no further significant development for the rest of the
night. Short wave energy will focus convection northeast of area.

The surface frontal boundary over the Mid- Atlantic will also
sink south overnight and cross the region by Saturday morning.
Overnight lows will again be impacted by convective debris clouds
and a mixed boundary layer. Expect lows in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The front becomes nearly stationary across the csra or southeast
Midlands early Saturday. The models suggest drier air advecting
south from North Carolina. A mid level cap may develop as upper
level ridge builds slightly. Instability should be weaker than
today and forcing mainly associated with surface convergence near
front...although a few weak mid level short waves may rotate south
from North Carolina around ridge. Chance pops mainly near the
front in the afternoon. Slight chance pops elsewhere. Temperatures
slightly cooler behind the front although above mos guidance due
to cool bias. Surface ridge centered off the Mid Atlantic coast
extending southwest across western Carolina Sunday and shallow
low-level moisture remains across the area. Front appears to be
more diffuse Sunday...but likely near the CSRA. Weak convergence
possible associated with front and possible sea breeze. Upper
level ridge and associated warm temperatures aloft should limit
convection. Mainly isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms
expected and temperatures slightly above guidance in the low to
mid 90s. Overnight lows in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The models have upper ridging extending into the forecast area
early in the period with the ridging shifting farther westward by
the middle of the week. A cold front approaches Tuesday as upper
trough moves across the Great Lakes and Northeastern States. Front
remains in the area through the week. Deep moisture may develop
late weak as upper level trough amplifies in the Mississippi
valley late week. Chance of mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms each day...possibly increasing late in the week with
temperatures near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected at the terminals through the 24 hour TAF
forecast period. Afternoon convection moving east of the
terminals at 22z. Scattered cumulus and mid level clouds overnight.
Isolated thunderstorms possible Saturday but confidence low on
location...possibly focus in the CSRA.

Southwesterly winds diminishing this evening, then shift to the
north around dawn Saturday as the front pushes south through the
area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 242001
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
401 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front to the north today will approach tonight, stalling
across the region Saturday and dissipating Sunday into Monday.
Another front will impact the area beginning on Tuesday and will
become nearly stationary in the vicinity through the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A cold front will slowly drop southeast across the western and
central Carolinas through the night. General model consensus has
the front staying just north and west of the local area through
sunrise. The persistent upper ridge over the southern U.S. will
continue to weaken as a series of shortwaves drop out of the
northwest flow, traversing the area.

Hi-resolution models continue to show showers/thunderstorms (that
are currently developing upstream across central South Carolina)
moving into our interior South Carolina counties this evening and
then making a run for the coast. Model soundings do show around
25-30 knots of 0-6 km shear with DCAPEs in excess of 1000-1500
J/kg. Given these parameters, an isolated severe threat will
exist. SPC Day 1 Outlook currently has a slight risk across
portions of Charleston and Berkeley counties, with a marginal risk
extending south to Allendale and Hampton counties. Best timing
would be from around 6 PM to 10 PM. Primary threats will be
damaging wind gusts and possibly large hail (although seems the
lesser threat of the two given WBZ heights of over 10 kft). Will
continue to highlight potential in the HWO. Areas further south
are expected to remain dry.

Later in the night, precipitation coverage should decrease with
loss of instability. Cloud cover should hang around through much
of the night across the northern zones, with skies staying mostly
clear across southeast Georgia. Temperatures should be quite mild,
only dropping to the mid/upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday...The day will start off fairly warm with a west/northwest
downsloping wind that helps keep a seabreeze pinned near the coast.
Strong sfc heating along with deepening moisture ahead of an
approaching cold front from the north/northwest should support heat
index values between 105-108 degrees over most areas. A Heat
Advisory is now in effect from 11am-7pm on Saturday for southeast
Georgia and a few locations in coastal South Carolina where
afternoon temps peak in the mid to upper 90s. Some questions in
regards to cloud cover and peak temps will keep the rest of
southeast South Carolina out of the Heat Advisory for now. However,
should convective activity and cloud cover hold off until early
afternoon hours, a Heat Advisory will likely be needed for much of
southeast South Carolina as well.

As we head into early to mid afternoon hours the main weather
concern will be the possibility of severe weather from pulse type
thunderstorms. Mid-lvl ridging will gradually retreat to the deep
south as a series of h5 shortwaves rounds its eastern periphery over
the southeastern United States. The setup will favor an unstable
atmosphere along and ahead of a sfc cold front approaching from the
north/northwest during the afternoon. Although shear is marginal,
SBCAPE ranging between 1500-2500 J/kg, DCAPE between 1200-1600 J/kg,
lifted index values between -6 to -8 C along with modest mid lvl
lapse rates and PWATS around 2.0 inches support scattered to
numerous thunderstorms, some of which could produce strong and
damaging wind gusts. At this time, strong to severe thunderstorms
are possible beginning early afternoon in southeast South Carolina
and mid/late afternoon in southeast Georgia as the cold front shifts
slowly southward over the region.

Sunday and Monday...A cold front will drift southward over parts of
southeast Georgia before stalling and gradually dissipating early
next week. However, the atmosphere will remain fairly unstable where
deeper moisture and strong sfc heating coincide along and south of
the weakening front. For this reason, a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast on Sunday with
highest chances in southeast Georgia. By Monday, mid lvl energy
appears to shift south of the area and a lull in moisture is
apparent, thus only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
will remain in the forecast. Overall high temps should be slightly
cooler than previous days to start off the week. In general,
afternoon temps should peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day.
Overnight lows should range in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main forecast feature to watch in the long term period will be a
front currently progged to approach the area from the west/northwest
on Tuesday and then become nearly stationary in the vicinity of the
forecast area through Thursday. This set up, especially with the
gradual breakdown of the eastern extent of the upper ridge, will
favor increased diurnal convective activity through the middle of
the week. For now pops are generally advertised in the 40 percent
chance range, but this may increase as the time approaches and
confidence grows in which particular forecast periods could be the
most active. Temperatures will remain nearly steady state featuring
low 90s for highs and mid 70s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR expected through 18z Saturday. Small chance for
isolated shower/thunderstorm to impact KCHS this evening.
Probabilities of this occurring are too low to include mention in
the TAF. Will amend if necessary.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible with
Saturday and Sunday afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms at
the CHS and SAV terminals. Flight restrictions possible again on
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: The waters will be positioned between Atlantic high
pressure and a cold front approaching from the northwest. The
front is expected to remain north of the waters through sunrise. A
tightened pressure gradient and developing low level jet will keep
southwest winds in the 15-20 knot range, with higher gusts.
Conditions are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory
criteria (25 knots) at this time, although a few gusts across the
Charleston county nearshore waters may come close. Seas 2-3 feet
will build to 3-4 feet late.

Saturday through Wednesday: A cold front will approach the waters
from the north on Saturday and slowly shift southward before
dissipating late Sunday into Monday. The strongest winds through the
period are expected to occur Saturday and Sunday along and ahead of
cold front. Southwest winds up to 15-20 kt will be possible on
Saturday with another period of modest flow on Sunday during fropa.
For now it does not appear that conditions will warrant any Small
Craft Advisories, but we could potentially see wind gusts around 25
kt in northern SC waters and offshore GA waters until fropa occurs.
Thereafter, south to southwest flow will prevail with winds no
stronger than 15 knots through early next week. Seas will be highest
over the weekend, generally 2-4 feet which will then diminish to 1-3
ft for early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum for June 24th...
KCHS...79 set in 1998.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for SCZ047-048-
     051.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...DPB/ECT
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KFFC 241834
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
234 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
Models in pretty good agreement through the short term. Very dry air
aloft has suppress convection today but still wouldnt be surprised
if there is an isolated tsra along any left over outflow boundaries
from this mornings convection across extreme north GA. MCS moving
into western TN has a trajectory toward the CWA however all models
dissipate it before getting here. Having said that will maintain
slight chance pops through the night over north and east GA. As the
main surface trough moves out of the Tennessee Valley and into
central GA Saturday...a back door front will move into northeast GA
late Saturday afternoon and across much of north GA Saturday night.
This will increase instability ahead of the front bringing a higher
chance of convection Saturday afternoon and into Saturday night.

Temperatures Saturday will rise into the upper 90s across parts of
central Georgia. Heat index values will approach 105 degrees
Saturday afternoon. However the biggest problem with max temps
Saturday is the amount of clouds expected. If more convection
develops than anticipated this will yield lower max temps. So will
hold off on issuing a Heat Advisory at this time.

17

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
Weak to moderate upper- level ridging remains in place over the
region to start the extended forecast period. Ridge does not
appear to be strong enough to suppress all convection...especially
considering the proximity of surface boundaries and strong surface
heating. Pattern shifts to northwest upper flow early in the new
work week with continued scattered convection. Convection should
also continue to show a decidedly diurnal bias...however passing
short waves and surface boundaries will keep convective chances
from drying up completely overnight through the period.

High temperatures remain above seasonal normals into early next
week...but should moderate somewhat as the upper ridge retreats west
and is replaced with northwesterly upper flow.

20/16

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Dry air aloft and a weak cap will aid in suppressing tstorm
development this afternoon. cu fields will dissipate after
sunset...however there will be an increase in mid level clouds
late tonight and Saturday morning ahead of a backdoor front that
will enter the northeast part of the state Saturday afternoon.
This will also increase the risk of tsra...mainly Saturday
afternoon. Again the risk is low enough to leave out of the TAF
but will add a VCSH in ATL after 18Z Saturday. Winds will be
westerly and a little gusty this afternoon but should become near
calm after sunset.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High on all elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          75  98  72  90 /  30  30  30  30
Atlanta         76  96  75  89 /  20  30  30  30
Blairsville     69  90  68  88 /  20  30  20  30
Cartersville    74  96  73  90 /  20  30  30  30
Columbus        75  97  76  94 /  20  20  30  40
Gainesville     75  95  73  88 /  20  30  30  30
Macon           75  99  75  94 /  20  30  30  30
Rome            73  97  71  90 /  20  30  30  30
Peachtree City  74  97  73  90 /  20  30  30  30
Vidalia         76  97  76  93 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....20/16
AVIATION...17




000
FXUS62 KFFC 241834
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
234 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
Models in pretty good agreement through the short term. Very dry air
aloft has suppress convection today but still wouldnt be surprised
if there is an isolated tsra along any left over outflow boundaries
from this mornings convection across extreme north GA. MCS moving
into western TN has a trajectory toward the CWA however all models
dissipate it before getting here. Having said that will maintain
slight chance pops through the night over north and east GA. As the
main surface trough moves out of the Tennessee Valley and into
central GA Saturday...a back door front will move into northeast GA
late Saturday afternoon and across much of north GA Saturday night.
This will increase instability ahead of the front bringing a higher
chance of convection Saturday afternoon and into Saturday night.

Temperatures Saturday will rise into the upper 90s across parts of
central Georgia. Heat index values will approach 105 degrees
Saturday afternoon. However the biggest problem with max temps
Saturday is the amount of clouds expected. If more convection
develops than anticipated this will yield lower max temps. So will
hold off on issuing a Heat Advisory at this time.

17

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
Weak to moderate upper- level ridging remains in place over the
region to start the extended forecast period. Ridge does not
appear to be strong enough to suppress all convection...especially
considering the proximity of surface boundaries and strong surface
heating. Pattern shifts to northwest upper flow early in the new
work week with continued scattered convection. Convection should
also continue to show a decidedly diurnal bias...however passing
short waves and surface boundaries will keep convective chances
from drying up completely overnight through the period.

High temperatures remain above seasonal normals into early next
week...but should moderate somewhat as the upper ridge retreats west
and is replaced with northwesterly upper flow.

20/16

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Dry air aloft and a weak cap will aid in suppressing tstorm
development this afternoon. cu fields will dissipate after
sunset...however there will be an increase in mid level clouds
late tonight and Saturday morning ahead of a backdoor front that
will enter the northeast part of the state Saturday afternoon.
This will also increase the risk of tsra...mainly Saturday
afternoon. Again the risk is low enough to leave out of the TAF
but will add a VCSH in ATL after 18Z Saturday. Winds will be
westerly and a little gusty this afternoon but should become near
calm after sunset.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High on all elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          75  98  72  90 /  30  30  30  30
Atlanta         76  96  75  89 /  20  30  30  30
Blairsville     69  90  68  88 /  20  30  20  30
Cartersville    74  96  73  90 /  20  30  30  30
Columbus        75  97  76  94 /  20  20  30  40
Gainesville     75  95  73  88 /  20  30  30  30
Macon           75  99  75  94 /  20  30  30  30
Rome            73  97  71  90 /  20  30  30  30
Peachtree City  74  97  73  90 /  20  30  30  30
Vidalia         76  97  76  93 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....20/16
AVIATION...17




000
FXUS62 KCAE 241808
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
208 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sinking southward will move into the forecast area
tonight. The front will be stalled near the south part of the
forecast area Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms will be
associated with the front. Temperatures will be slightly cooler
behind the front over the weekend and it will be a little drier.
The front will remain nearly stationary near the area through next
week. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms by mid week
with temperatures near normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Another hot day across the region as CAE is already at 100 degrees
with the remainder of the region in the mid to upper 90s.  Earlier
cloud cover has diminished a bit allowing for better insolation and
the atmosphere continues to destabilize with LI values around -6C to
-8C with low level lapse rates at 8.5C/km.  Radar showing a few
isolated showers trying to develop along a convergence zone in the
surface trough but they have struggled to push through the very warm
air aloft.

However, shortwave energy moving southeastward through southwest
Virginia at this time will increase the large scale lift over the
next few hours and expect scattered convection to blossom with some
storms becoming strong to severe given the increasing instability
and sufficient shear.  We remain in a slight risk from SPC for
mainly damaging wind threat but also to a lesser degree large hail.
Downdraft CAPE values currently around 800 but are increasing and
expect them to exceed 1000 to 1500 by late afternoon and evening.
Current expectation is for storms to form along the trough and
further northwest in central NC then move southeastward into our
area and possibly forming into multicellular clusters which develop
their own coldpools which will enhance the damaging wind threat.

Instability likely to linger into the evening hours and expect
storms to continue after sunset given the upper level support for
the shortwave moving by.  The surface frontal boundary over the Mid-
Atlantic will also sink south overnight and cross the region by
Saturday morning.  Overnight lows will again be impacted by
convective debris clouds and a mixed boundary layer.  Expect lows in
the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The front becomes nearly stationary across the csra or southeast
Midlands early Saturday. The models suggest drier air advecting
south from North Carolina. A mid level cap may develop as upper
level ridge builds slightly. Instability should be weaker than
today and forcing mainly associated with surface convergence near
front...although a few weak mid level short waves may rotate south
from North Carolina around ridge. Chance pops mainly near the
front in the afternoon. Slight chance pops elsewhere. Temperatures
slightly cooler behind the front although above mos guidance due
to cool bias. Surface ridge centered off the Mid Atlantic coast
extending southwest across western Carolina Sunday and shallow
low-level moisture remains across the area. Front appears to be
more diffuse Sunday...but likely near the CSRA. Weak convergence
possible associated with front and possible sea breeze. Upper
level ridge and associated warm temperatures aloft should limit
convection. Mainly isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms
expected and temperatures slightly above guidance in the low to
mid 90s. Overnight lows in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The models have upper ridging extending into the forecast area
early in the period with the ridging shifting farther westward by
the middle of the week. A cold front approaches Tuesday as upper
trough moves across the Great Lakes and Northeastern States. Front
remains in the area through the week. Deep moisture may develop
late weak as upper level trough amplifies in the Mississippi
valley late week. Chance of mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms each day...possibly increasing late in the week with
temperatures near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected at the terminals through the 24 hour TAF
forecast period though restrictions may occur in thunderstorms.

Isolated to scattered convection starting to develop with daytime
heating and atmospheric destabilization. Included a tempo group for
showers this afternoon but did not include thunder at this time due
to uncertainty given the very warm air aloft and expectation that the
bulk of convection should remain north of the terminals.  However if
convection develops into multicellular clusters then CAE/CUB/OGB
seem to be most at risk for some impacts late afternoon and evening.

Otherwise southwesterly winds around 10 knots will prevail this
afternoon and diminish with sunset this evening, then shift to the
north around dawn Saturday as the front pushes south through the
area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 241730
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
130 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front to the north today will approach tonight, stalling
across the region Saturday and dissipating Sunday. Another front
will impact the area beginning on Tuesday and will become nearly
stationary in the vicinity through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Atlantic high pressure persists, while a weak cold front
slowly begins to sag south towards the forecast area. Aloft, the
persistent ridge over the southern U.S. will weaken as shortwave
energy rounds the base of a broad longwave trough centered over
the northeast. The main forecast concerns for today revolve around
severe potential and the heat.

Regarding convection, the 12z KCHS raob showed a notable cap
around 700 mb with quite dry air through the column (noted by PWAT
of only 1.17 inches) which should preclude any convection through
much of the day. Then, most hi-resolution models favor some
organized convection developing upstream and shifting into the
northern zones late this afternoon into the evening. DCAPE values
are forecast to be around 1000-1500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear of
around 25 knots. Given this set up, there will be an isolated
severe risk with damaging winds the primary threat. Large hail is
not out of the question, but seems like the lesser threat given
hot temperatures and WBZ heights over 10 kft. SPC currently has
the northern portions of Charleston and Berkeley counties outlined
in slight risk, with marginal south to Colleton. Have maintained
mention of isolated severe in the HWO for those locations.

Low level thickness values support high temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s. Dew points are forecast to stay in the upper 60s. This
will produce heat indices of around 102-104 F. Could not rule out
a couple pockets of 105 F (local heat advisory criteria through
June 30) across interior southeast Georgia counties and in the
coastal corridor where dew points will pool around the sea breeze
however, at this time, the duration and areal extent looks pretty
marginal especially since latest satellite imagery shows cloud
cover that is a bit thicker than anticipated. This will likely keep
temperatures down a degree or two.

With the early afternoon update, made minor tweaks to hourly
temp, dewpoint, and sky cover grids.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday and Saturday night: The pattern aloft will feature a
prominent upper ridge that will be centered across the deep south
and the southern plains, extending northward into the Great Lakes
region. on the east side of the ridge axis, the flow will become
subtly more cyclonic as shortwave energy spills in from the north
and rotates around the upper ridge. At the surface, a cold front
will push in from the north as high pressure builds into the lee of
the Appalachians. The day will be a warm one, with plentiful
insolation leading to high temperatures reaching the mid to upper
90s. A few values of around 100 will be possible for southeast
Georgia too. This surface heating to a good thermodynamic
environment for thunderstorm development, especially when combined
with the support aloft from shortwave energy. Model soundings
generally show an environment with CAPE values around 3000 J/kg,
with DCAPE values as high as 1500 J/kg. Also of note, and further
supportive of high DCAPE, is the 2-3 kft separation between the
freezing level and the wet bulb zero height. Thunderstorms will
likely development across the tri-county region in the early
afternoon and then the best coverage will spread further southward
through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening. Given the
thermodynamics described above there is a decent chance to see a few
strong to severe storms. Another consequence of the approaching
front will be pooling of moisture immediately ahead of it. When
combined with temperatures in the 95-100 degree range, heat index
values could increase into the 105-108 range for a few hours. As
such, a heat advisory may eventually be needed. Overnight, ongoing
convection will diminish through the evening from north to south as
the shortwave progresses southward. Much of the late night will be
dry and lows will quite mild, likely only falling into the upper
70s for many areas.

Sunday through Monday: The overall pattern aloft will not be
terribly interesting as a large ridge encompasses most of the
southern half of the CONUS into early next week. The Saturday front
will push into southeast Georgia and dissipate. For Sunday this will
result in most convective activity taking place south of the
Savannah river where the best convergence and moisture will reside.
By Monday, convective activity looks to hit a lull across the area
as warm mid levels keep the environment capped. Temperatures will be
cooler than on Saturday, but still at or a couple degrees above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The main forecast feature to watch in the long term period will be a
front currently progged to approach the area from the west/northwest
on Tuesday and then become nearly stationary in the vicinity of the
forecast area through Thursday. This set up, especially with the
gradual breakdown of the eastern extent of the upper ridge, will
favor increased diurnal convective activity through the middle of
the week. For now pops are generally advertised in the 40 percent
chance range, but this may increase as the time approaches and
confidence grows in which particular forecast periods could be the
most active. Temperatures will remain nearly steady state featuring
low 90s for highs and mid 70s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR expected through 18z Saturday. Small chance for
isolated shower/thunderstorm to impact KCHS this evening.
Probabilities of this occurring are too low to include mention in
the TAF. Will amend if necessary.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR. Periodic impacts from
thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon/evening, then
again by Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: The synoptic pattern reveals a sub-tropical ridge
stretching east to west across Florida, with a Piedmont trough and
cold front to the north and northwest that slowly approaches with
time. The pressure gradient in between will remain tight and that
along with some enhancement due to the resultant afternoon sea
breeze circulations will generate elevated S-SW winds as high as
15-20 kt across all waters. Periodic gusts to 25 kt are likely,
especially in Charleston Harbor and across the Charleston County
nearby Atlantic waters. But duration and/or coverage is limited
enough where conditions will stay just below any advisory
thresholds. Seas will average 3-4 ft over the ocean, while waves
build to 1-2 ft in Charleston Harbor.

Tonight: The cold front will eventually slide further south, but
still remains north-northwest of the local waters. The packed
pressure gradient and enhanced low level jetting will keep south and
southwest winds elevated, again as high as 15 or 20 kt. Gusts near
25 kt will occur at times, but not enough to justify raising the SCA
flags. Seas will hold in a steady state, around 3-4 ft, although a
few 5 footers might arrive across AMZ374. Mariners are also alerted
to the potential for scattered showers and t-storms, a few of which
could be strong or even severe early tonight, and mainly on the
Charleston County coastal waters.

Rip Currents: Similar to yesterday a fairly decent afternoon sea
breeze will give a boost to the south and southwest winds,
generating a moderate parallel or longshore current moving toward
the north and northeast. Although the actual rip current risk is
low, we again advise that no one enter the surf that doesn`t know
how to swim.

Saturday through Wednesday: The strongest winds through the
period are expected to occur Saturday through Sunday as a front
pushes southward through the local waters. Perhaps has much as
15-20 kt of flow will be possible on Saturday in the southwest
flow ahead of the boundary, with another period of modest flow on
Sunday out of the northwest behind the southward moving boundary.
For now it does not appear that conditions will warrant any Small
Craft Advisories. Thereafter for the early part of next week,
south to southwest flow will prevail with winds no stronger than
15 knots. Seas will be highest over the weekend, generally 2-4
feet which will then diminish to 1-3 ft for early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum for June 24th...
KCHS...79 set in 1998.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 241730
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
130 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front to the north today will approach tonight, stalling
across the region Saturday and dissipating Sunday. Another front
will impact the area beginning on Tuesday and will become nearly
stationary in the vicinity through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Atlantic high pressure persists, while a weak cold front
slowly begins to sag south towards the forecast area. Aloft, the
persistent ridge over the southern U.S. will weaken as shortwave
energy rounds the base of a broad longwave trough centered over
the northeast. The main forecast concerns for today revolve around
severe potential and the heat.

Regarding convection, the 12z KCHS raob showed a notable cap
around 700 mb with quite dry air through the column (noted by PWAT
of only 1.17 inches) which should preclude any convection through
much of the day. Then, most hi-resolution models favor some
organized convection developing upstream and shifting into the
northern zones late this afternoon into the evening. DCAPE values
are forecast to be around 1000-1500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear of
around 25 knots. Given this set up, there will be an isolated
severe risk with damaging winds the primary threat. Large hail is
not out of the question, but seems like the lesser threat given
hot temperatures and WBZ heights over 10 kft. SPC currently has
the northern portions of Charleston and Berkeley counties outlined
in slight risk, with marginal south to Colleton. Have maintained
mention of isolated severe in the HWO for those locations.

Low level thickness values support high temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s. Dew points are forecast to stay in the upper 60s. This
will produce heat indices of around 102-104 F. Could not rule out
a couple pockets of 105 F (local heat advisory criteria through
June 30) across interior southeast Georgia counties and in the
coastal corridor where dew points will pool around the sea breeze
however, at this time, the duration and areal extent looks pretty
marginal especially since latest satellite imagery shows cloud
cover that is a bit thicker than anticipated. This will likely keep
temperatures down a degree or two.

With the early afternoon update, made minor tweaks to hourly
temp, dewpoint, and sky cover grids.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday and Saturday night: The pattern aloft will feature a
prominent upper ridge that will be centered across the deep south
and the southern plains, extending northward into the Great Lakes
region. on the east side of the ridge axis, the flow will become
subtly more cyclonic as shortwave energy spills in from the north
and rotates around the upper ridge. At the surface, a cold front
will push in from the north as high pressure builds into the lee of
the Appalachians. The day will be a warm one, with plentiful
insolation leading to high temperatures reaching the mid to upper
90s. A few values of around 100 will be possible for southeast
Georgia too. This surface heating to a good thermodynamic
environment for thunderstorm development, especially when combined
with the support aloft from shortwave energy. Model soundings
generally show an environment with CAPE values around 3000 J/kg,
with DCAPE values as high as 1500 J/kg. Also of note, and further
supportive of high DCAPE, is the 2-3 kft separation between the
freezing level and the wet bulb zero height. Thunderstorms will
likely development across the tri-county region in the early
afternoon and then the best coverage will spread further southward
through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening. Given the
thermodynamics described above there is a decent chance to see a few
strong to severe storms. Another consequence of the approaching
front will be pooling of moisture immediately ahead of it. When
combined with temperatures in the 95-100 degree range, heat index
values could increase into the 105-108 range for a few hours. As
such, a heat advisory may eventually be needed. Overnight, ongoing
convection will diminish through the evening from north to south as
the shortwave progresses southward. Much of the late night will be
dry and lows will quite mild, likely only falling into the upper
70s for many areas.

Sunday through Monday: The overall pattern aloft will not be
terribly interesting as a large ridge encompasses most of the
southern half of the CONUS into early next week. The Saturday front
will push into southeast Georgia and dissipate. For Sunday this will
result in most convective activity taking place south of the
Savannah river where the best convergence and moisture will reside.
By Monday, convective activity looks to hit a lull across the area
as warm mid levels keep the environment capped. Temperatures will be
cooler than on Saturday, but still at or a couple degrees above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The main forecast feature to watch in the long term period will be a
front currently progged to approach the area from the west/northwest
on Tuesday and then become nearly stationary in the vicinity of the
forecast area through Thursday. This set up, especially with the
gradual breakdown of the eastern extent of the upper ridge, will
favor increased diurnal convective activity through the middle of
the week. For now pops are generally advertised in the 40 percent
chance range, but this may increase as the time approaches and
confidence grows in which particular forecast periods could be the
most active. Temperatures will remain nearly steady state featuring
low 90s for highs and mid 70s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR expected through 18z Saturday. Small chance for
isolated shower/thunderstorm to impact KCHS this evening.
Probabilities of this occurring are too low to include mention in
the TAF. Will amend if necessary.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR. Periodic impacts from
thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon/evening, then
again by Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: The synoptic pattern reveals a sub-tropical ridge
stretching east to west across Florida, with a Piedmont trough and
cold front to the north and northwest that slowly approaches with
time. The pressure gradient in between will remain tight and that
along with some enhancement due to the resultant afternoon sea
breeze circulations will generate elevated S-SW winds as high as
15-20 kt across all waters. Periodic gusts to 25 kt are likely,
especially in Charleston Harbor and across the Charleston County
nearby Atlantic waters. But duration and/or coverage is limited
enough where conditions will stay just below any advisory
thresholds. Seas will average 3-4 ft over the ocean, while waves
build to 1-2 ft in Charleston Harbor.

Tonight: The cold front will eventually slide further south, but
still remains north-northwest of the local waters. The packed
pressure gradient and enhanced low level jetting will keep south and
southwest winds elevated, again as high as 15 or 20 kt. Gusts near
25 kt will occur at times, but not enough to justify raising the SCA
flags. Seas will hold in a steady state, around 3-4 ft, although a
few 5 footers might arrive across AMZ374. Mariners are also alerted
to the potential for scattered showers and t-storms, a few of which
could be strong or even severe early tonight, and mainly on the
Charleston County coastal waters.

Rip Currents: Similar to yesterday a fairly decent afternoon sea
breeze will give a boost to the south and southwest winds,
generating a moderate parallel or longshore current moving toward
the north and northeast. Although the actual rip current risk is
low, we again advise that no one enter the surf that doesn`t know
how to swim.

Saturday through Wednesday: The strongest winds through the
period are expected to occur Saturday through Sunday as a front
pushes southward through the local waters. Perhaps has much as
15-20 kt of flow will be possible on Saturday in the southwest
flow ahead of the boundary, with another period of modest flow on
Sunday out of the northwest behind the southward moving boundary.
For now it does not appear that conditions will warrant any Small
Craft Advisories. Thereafter for the early part of next week,
south to southwest flow will prevail with winds no stronger than
15 knots. Seas will be highest over the weekend, generally 2-4
feet which will then diminish to 1-3 ft for early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum for June 24th...
KCHS...79 set in 1998.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KFFC 241725
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
125 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 349 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

Update...
Have increased the pops for a few hours across the far north
based on radar. Also increased the cloud cover for this morning.

41

Previous...
SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...
A convective system was sinking southward this morning ahead
of a surface front that was drifting into the TN Valley. This system
should affect north GA this morning and a few thunderstorms were
currently developing over the far northern zones. There has been
a weakening trend for now for that portion headed toward north
GA. The eventual trends of this system are uncertain however chance
or slight chance pops have been included for much of the forecast
area today except for the south central counties. There is the
potential for a few storms to become strong to severe. The surface
front should continue to push southward and stall in the vicinity of
central GA by Saturday morning. Have kept a slight chance of convection
overnight and continued into Saturday. Best chances Saturday should be
from Atlanta to Athens and south.

Heat Index values stay just below advisory criteria today...however
Saturday is showing heat index values of 105 over some areas of central
GA. Will continue to monitor this for a potential heat advisory.

41

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...
Weak to moderate upper-level ridging remains in place over the
region to start the extended forecast period. Ridge does not appear
to be strong enough to suppress all convection...especially
considering the proximity of surface boundaries and strong surface
heating. Pattern shifts to northwest upper flow early in the new
work week with continued scattered convection. Convection should
also continue to show a decidedly diurnal bias...however passing
short waves and surface boundaries will keep convective chances from
drying up completely overnight through the period.

High temperatures remain above seasonal normals into early next
week...but should moderate somewhat as the upper ridge retreats west
and is replaced with northwesterly upper flow.

20


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Dry air aloft and a weak cap will aid in suppressing tstorm
development this afternoon. cu fields will dissipate after
sunset...however there will be an increase in mid level clouds
late tonight and Saturday morning ahead of a backdoor front that
will enter the northeast part of the state Saturday afternoon.
This will also increase the risk of tsra...mainly Saturday
afternoon. Again the risk is low enough to leave out of the TAF
but will add a VCSH in ATL after 18Z Saturday. Winds will be
westerly and a little gusty this afternoon but should become near
calm after sunset.


//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High on all elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          94  74  98  73 /  30  30  30  30
Atlanta         93  77  96  75 /  20  20  30  30
Blairsville     88  68  91  69 /  50  20  30  20
Cartersville    93  73  96  72 /  30  20  30  30
Columbus        95  76  97  76 /  20  20  20  30
Gainesville     91  75  95  73 /  30  20  30  30
Macon           97  75  99  73 /  20  20  30  30
Rome            94  73  97  72 /  40  20  30  30
Peachtree City  93  73  96  72 /  20  20  30  30
Vidalia         96  75  98  74 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...17




000
FXUS62 KCAE 241451
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1051 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sinking southward will move into the forecast area
tonight. The front will be stalled near the south part of the
forecast area Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms will be
associated with the front. It will be very hot ahead of the front
today.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Morning analysis shows a surface trough situated along the I-85
corridor in the upstate extending into eastern NC while a cold
front remained further north across the Mid-Atlantic region into
the lower Ohio Valley. Water vapor imagery shows a weak shortwave
moving over the area currently which is initiating convection
along the NC/SC line east of the Pee Dee while another shortwave
is moving southeast across KY/WV and will initiate convection
across NC later today.

Model forecast instability this afternoon is strong with CAPE
values around 3000 J/kg and lifted index values around -7C to -8C.
Morning cloud cover may limit the instability through early
afternoon but some clearing is expected and we should have ample
instability to fuel convection. Adequate shear is available to
possibly support isolated supercells but multicell clusters is the
favored storm mode today. SPC has the area outlooked in a slight
risk but think the most favored area is the northern and central
Midlands and Pee Dee region late afternoon into this evening. Will
continue the high chance pops along and north of Columbia late
afternoon into evening with lower chance pops in the CSRA.

Despite some morning cloud cover, we started off quite warm with
a morning low of 80 at Columbia and the temperature is already
back up to 93 degrees. Expect another very warm day with highs in
the upper 90s to around 100 degrees and with higher dewpoints the
heat index will be around 105 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Convergence associated with the cold front sinking southward and
into the forecast area plus a possible mid-level shortwave trough
supports thunderstorms tonight but limited moisture may continue
to help keep coverage scattered. Followed the guidance consensus
and forecasted chance pops. Expect moderate instability continuing
well into the night because of the lingering effects of the
strong diurnal heating and possible lift ahead of the mid-level
feature. The instability supports a continued threat of damaging
wind.

The models displayed the front mainly near the south part of the
forecast area Saturday and Saturday night. Leaned toward the
higher guidance pops because of convergence near the front with
the greater chance in the south section. The NAM indicated
moderate to strong instability with surface-based LIs -5 north to
-8 south Saturday. The instability supports a continued threat of
thunderstorms with damaging wind. Followed the guidance consensus
for the temperature forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The models have upper ridging extending into the forecast area
early in the period with the ridging shifting farther westward by
the middle of the week. There may be weak surface troughing early
with a front stalling near the area late. The models have not
been consistent with the placement of deeper moisture. The GFS and
ECWMF MOS have pops 10 to 40 percent during the period. Expect
temperatures near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected today into the evening hours.

High pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to
ridge into the area as a cold front remains north of the area. The
cold front will push closer to the area by tonight.

Latest radar loop showing weak showers moving towards CAE from the
west but diminishing as it approaches and do not think it will
impact the terminal. Southwest winds will increase after 14Z from
the west-southwest 10 to 15 knots. Some convection may develop
later this afternoon into the evening, but confidence in exact
timing and location precludes a mention at any of the TAF sites
at this time as the northern Midlands north of the terminals
appears to be the most favored area.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible early Saturday due
to scattered thunderstorms. Diurnal convection expected through
Tuesday with a frontal boundary near the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 241435
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1035 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front to the north today will approach tonight, stalling
across the region Saturday and dissipating Sunday. Another front
will impact the area beginning on Tuesday and will become nearly
stationary in the vicinity through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Atlantic high pressure persists, while a weak cold front
slowly begins to sag south towards the forecast area. Aloft, the
persistent ridge over the southern U.S. will weaken as shortwave
energy rounds the base of a broad longwave trough centered over
the northeast. The main forecast concerns for today revolve around
severe potential and the heat.

Regarding convection, the 12z KCHS raob showed a notable cap
around 700 mb with quite dry air through the column (noted by PWAT
of only 1.17 inches) which should preclude any convection through
much of the day. Then, most hi-resolution models favor some
organized convection developing upstream and shifting into the
northern zones late this afternoon into the evening. DCAPE values
are forecast to be around 1000-1500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear of
around 25 knots. Given this set up, there will be an isolated
severe risk with damaging winds the primary threat. Hail is not
out of the question, but seems like the lesser threat given
hot temperatures and WBZ heights of over 10 kft. SPC currently
has the northern portions of Charleston and Berkeley counties
outlined in slight risk, with marginal south to Colleton. Have
maintained mention of isolated severe in the HWO for those
locations.

Low level thickness values support high temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s. Dew points are forecast to not mix out quite as well as
previous days, mainly staying in the upper 60s. This will produce
heat indices of around 102-104 F. Could not rule out a couple
pockets of 105 F (local heat advisory criteria through June 30)
across interior southeast Georgia counties and in the coastal
corridor where dew points will pool around the sea breeze however,
at this time, the duration and areal extent looks pretty marginal
so have opted to not issue a Heat Advisory.

With this update, just made some minor tweaks to hourly temp and
dew point based on latest trends, as well as to sky cover as
cirrus moving in was a bit thicker than anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday and Saturday night: The pattern aloft will feature a
prominent upper ridge that will be centered across the deep south
and the southern plains, extending northward into the Great Lakes
region. on the east side of the ridge axis, the flow will become
subtly more cyclonic as shortwave energy spills in from the north
and rotates around the upper ridge. At the surface, a cold front
will push in from the north as high pressure builds into the lee of
the Appalachians. The day will be a warm one, with plentiful
insolation leading to high temperatures reaching the mid to upper
90s. A few values of around 100 will be possible for southeast
Georgia too. This surface heating to a good thermodynamic
environment for thunderstorm development, especially when combined
with the support aloft from shortwave energy. Model soundings
generally show an environment with CAPE values around 3000 J/kg,
with DCAPE values as high as 1500 J/kg. Also of note, and further
supportive of high DCAPE, is the 2-3 kft separation between the
freezing level and the wet bulb zero height. Thunderstorms will
likely development across the tri-county region in the early
afternoon and then the best coverage will spread further southward
through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening. Given the
thermodynamics described above there is a decent chance to see a few
strong to severe storms. Another consequence of the approaching
front will be pooling of moisture immediately ahead of it. When
combined with temperatures in the 95-100 degree range, heat index
values could increase into the 105-108 range for a few hours. As
such, a heat advisory may eventually be needed. Overnight, ongoing
convection will diminish through the evening from north to south as
the shortwave progresses southward. Much of the late night will be
dry and lows will quite mild, likely only falling into the upper
70s for many areas.

Sunday through Monday: The overall pattern aloft will not be
terribly interesting as a large ridge encompasses most of the
southern half of the CONUS into early next week. The Saturday front
will push into southeast Georgia and dissipate. For Sunday this will
result in most convective activity taking place south of the
Savannah river where the best convergence and moisture will reside.
By Monday, convective activity looks to hit a lull across the area
as warm mid levels keep the environment capped. Temperatures will be
cooler than on Saturday, but still at or a couple degrees above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The main forecast feature to watch in the long term period will be a
front currently progged to approach the area from the west/northwest
on Tuesday and then become nearly stationary in the vicinity of the
forecast area through Thursday. This set up, especially with the
gradual breakdown of the eastern extent of the upper ridge, will
favor increased diurnal convective activity through the middle of
the week. For now pops are generally advertised in the 40 percent
chance range, but this may increase as the time approaches and
confidence grows in which particular forecast periods could be the
most active. Temperatures will remain nearly steady state featuring
low 90s for highs and mid 70s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS: While we are forecasting VFR conditions through 12z
Saturday, there does remain a low end risk for temporary flight
restrictions if any organized SHRA/TSRA from upstream are able to
move in late today and this evening (22z-03z). For now the
probabilities are too low to even include VCTS, but subsequent
forecasts can address this concern as trends become more defined.

KSAV: VFR through 06z Saturday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR. Periodic impacts from
thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon/evening, then
again by Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: The synoptic pattern reveals a sub-tropical ridge
stretching east to west across Florida, with a Piedmont trough and
cold front to the north and northwest that slowly approaches with
time. The pressure gradient in between will remain tight and that
along with some enhancement due to the resultant afternoon sea
breeze circulations will generate elevated S-SW winds as high as
15-20 kt across all waters. Periodic gusts to 25 kt are likely,
especially in Charleston Harbor and across the Charleston County
nearby Atlantic waters. But duration and/or coverage is limited
enough where conditions will stay just below any advisory
thresholds. Seas will average 3-4 ft over the ocean, while waves
build to 1-2 ft in Charleston Harbor.

Tonight: The cold front will eventually slide further south, but
still remains north-northwest of the local waters. The packed
pressure gradient and enhanced low level jetting will keep south and
southwest winds elevated, again as high as 15 or 20 kt. Gusts near
25 kt will occur at times, but not enough to justify raising the SCA
flags. Seas will hold in a steady state, around 3-4 ft, although a
few 5 footers might arrive across AMZ374. Mariners are also alerted
to the potential for scattered showers and t-storms, a few of which
could be strong or even severe early tonight, and mainly on the
Charleston County coastal waters.

Rip Currents: Similar to yesterday a fairly decent afternoon sea
breeze will give a boost to the south and southwest winds,
generating a moderate parallel or longshore current moving toward
the north and northeast. Although the actual rip current risk is
low, we again advise that no one enter the surf that doesn`t know
how to swim.

Saturday through Wednesday: The strongest winds through the
period are expected to occur Saturday through Sunday as a front
pushes southward through the local waters. Perhaps has much as
15-20 kt of flow will be possible on Saturday in the southwest
flow ahead of the boundary, with another period of modest flow on
Sunday out of the northwest behind the southward moving boundary.
For now it does not appear that conditions will warrant any Small
Craft Advisories. Thereafter for the early part of next week,
south to southwest flow will prevail with winds no stronger than
15 knots. Seas will be highest over the weekend, generally 2-4
feet which will then diminish to 1-3 ft for early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum for June 24th...
KCHS...79 set in 1998.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 241158
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
758 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sinking southward will move into the forecast area
tonight. The front will be stalled near the south part of the
forecast area Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms will be
associated with the front. It will be very hot ahead of the front
today.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An increase in low-level moisture ahead of the cold front with
convergence into a lee-side trough plus strong heating support
thunderstorms today. However, ridging south of the area should
continue to limit moisture. The models also depicted mid-level
shortwave ridging during the time of maximum heating. The NAM and
GFS MOS indicated low pops. The high-resolution models displayed
scattered coverage mainly in the north part closer to greater
moisture and less upper ridging. Forecasted pops of 30 percent
south to 50 percent north. These values were higher than most of
the guidance but appeared reasonable based on expected strong
instability and outflow boundaries from convection north of the
area. The NAM displayed surface-based LIs -7 to -8. The strong
instability with an inverted-v type sounding and dry air in the
mid-levels aiding downdrafts supports possible damaging wind with
the thunderstorms. Hail appears less of a threat but not out of
the question because evaporative cooling may help lower wet-bulb
zero heights and the models displayed considerable CAPE in the
hail growth region. It will be hot with h85 westerly flow and
temperatures near 21 C. Expect high temperatures again today
around 100. The increased low-level moisture will result in higher
heat index values. Based on the guidance consensus expect heat
indices peaking near 105 and just below the heat advisory
criteria of 110.

Convergence associated with the cold front sinking southward and
into the forecast area plus a possible mid-level shortwave trough
supports thunderstorms tonight but limited moisture may continue
to help keep coverage scattered. Followed the guidance consensus
and forecasted chance pops. Expect moderate instability continuing
well into the night because of the lingering effects of the
strong diurnal heating and possible lift ahead of the mid-level
feature. The instability supports a continued threat of damaging
wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The models displayed the front mainly near the south part of the
forecast area Saturday and Saturday night. Leaned toward the
higher guidance pops because of convergence near the front with
the greater chance in the south section. The NAM indicated
moderate to strong instability with surface-based LIs -5 north to
-8 south Saturday. The instability supports a continued threat of
thunderstorms with damaging wind. Followed the guidance consensus
for the temperature forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The models have upper ridging extending into the forecast area
early in the period with the ridging shifting farther westward by
the middle of the week. There may be weak surface troughing early
with a front stalling near the area late. The models have not
been consistent with the placement of deeper moisture. The GFS and
ECWMF MOS have pops 10 to 40 percent during the period. Expect
temperatures near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected today into the evening hours.

High pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to
ridge into the area as a cold front remains north of the area. The
cold front will push closer to the area by tonight.

Latest radar loop showing weak showers moving towards CAE from the
west but diminishing as it approaches and do not think it will
impact the terminal. Southwest winds will increase after 14Z from
the west-southwest 10 to 15 knots. Some convection may develop
later this afternoon into the evening, but confidence in exact
timing and location precludes a mention at any of the TAF sites
at this time as the northern Midlands north of the terminals
appears to be the most favored area.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible early Saturday due
to scattered thunderstorms. Diurnal convection expected through
Tuesday with a frontal boundary near the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 241158
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
758 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sinking southward will move into the forecast area
tonight. The front will be stalled near the south part of the
forecast area Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms will be
associated with the front. It will be very hot ahead of the front
today.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An increase in low-level moisture ahead of the cold front with
convergence into a lee-side trough plus strong heating support
thunderstorms today. However, ridging south of the area should
continue to limit moisture. The models also depicted mid-level
shortwave ridging during the time of maximum heating. The NAM and
GFS MOS indicated low pops. The high-resolution models displayed
scattered coverage mainly in the north part closer to greater
moisture and less upper ridging. Forecasted pops of 30 percent
south to 50 percent north. These values were higher than most of
the guidance but appeared reasonable based on expected strong
instability and outflow boundaries from convection north of the
area. The NAM displayed surface-based LIs -7 to -8. The strong
instability with an inverted-v type sounding and dry air in the
mid-levels aiding downdrafts supports possible damaging wind with
the thunderstorms. Hail appears less of a threat but not out of
the question because evaporative cooling may help lower wet-bulb
zero heights and the models displayed considerable CAPE in the
hail growth region. It will be hot with h85 westerly flow and
temperatures near 21 C. Expect high temperatures again today
around 100. The increased low-level moisture will result in higher
heat index values. Based on the guidance consensus expect heat
indices peaking near 105 and just below the heat advisory
criteria of 110.

Convergence associated with the cold front sinking southward and
into the forecast area plus a possible mid-level shortwave trough
supports thunderstorms tonight but limited moisture may continue
to help keep coverage scattered. Followed the guidance consensus
and forecasted chance pops. Expect moderate instability continuing
well into the night because of the lingering effects of the
strong diurnal heating and possible lift ahead of the mid-level
feature. The instability supports a continued threat of damaging
wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The models displayed the front mainly near the south part of the
forecast area Saturday and Saturday night. Leaned toward the
higher guidance pops because of convergence near the front with
the greater chance in the south section. The NAM indicated
moderate to strong instability with surface-based LIs -5 north to
-8 south Saturday. The instability supports a continued threat of
thunderstorms with damaging wind. Followed the guidance consensus
for the temperature forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The models have upper ridging extending into the forecast area
early in the period with the ridging shifting farther westward by
the middle of the week. There may be weak surface troughing early
with a front stalling near the area late. The models have not
been consistent with the placement of deeper moisture. The GFS and
ECWMF MOS have pops 10 to 40 percent during the period. Expect
temperatures near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected today into the evening hours.

High pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to
ridge into the area as a cold front remains north of the area. The
cold front will push closer to the area by tonight.

Latest radar loop showing weak showers moving towards CAE from the
west but diminishing as it approaches and do not think it will
impact the terminal. Southwest winds will increase after 14Z from
the west-southwest 10 to 15 knots. Some convection may develop
later this afternoon into the evening, but confidence in exact
timing and location precludes a mention at any of the TAF sites
at this time as the northern Midlands north of the terminals
appears to be the most favored area.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible early Saturday due
to scattered thunderstorms. Diurnal convection expected through
Tuesday with a frontal boundary near the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 241137
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
735 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.Update...
Have incresed the pops for a few hours across the far north based on radar.
Also increased the cloud cover for this morning.

41

.Previous...
.SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...
A convective system was sinking southward this morning ahead
of a surface front that was drifting into the TN Valley. This system
should affect north GA this morning and a few thunderstorms were
currently developing over the far northern zones. There has been
a weakening trend for now for that portion headed toward north
GA. The eventual trends of this system are uncertain however chance
or slight chance pops have been included for much of the forecast
area today except for the south central counties. There is the
potential for a few storms to become strong to severe. The surface
front should continue to push southward and stall in the vicinity of
central GA by Saturday morning. Have kept a slight chance of convection
overnight and continued into Saturday. Best chances Saturday should be
from Atlanta to Athens and south.

Heat Index values stay just below advisory criteria today...however
Saturday is showing heat index values of 105 over some areas of central
GA. Will continue to monitor this for a potential heat advisory.


41


.LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...
Weak to moderate upper-level ridging remains in place over the
region to start the extended forecast period. Ridge does not appear
to be strong enough to suppress all convection...especially
considering the proximity of surface boundaries and strong surface
heating. Pattern shifts to northwest upper flow early in the new
work week with continued scattered convection. Convection should
also continue to show a decidedly diurnal bias...however passing
short waves and surface boundaries will keep convective chances from
drying up completely overnight through the period.

High temperatures remain above seasonal normals into early next
week...but should moderate somewhat as the upper ridge retreats west
and is replaced with northwesterly upper flow.


20


&&


AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
Continued overall VFR conditions anticipated for this TAF cycle.
Convection over TN has weakened and may not affect the taf sites.
However...it is still possible that a thunderstorm could affect the
airports but probability too low to include in tafs for now.
Expect scattered cumulus today but also some mid/high clouds from dying
convection. Winds to remain on the southwest side.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
High on all elements except medium on location and development of
convection.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          96  74  98  73 /  20  30  20  30
Atlanta         94  77  96  75 /  20  20  30  30
Blairsville     89  68  91  69 /  30  30  20  20
Cartersville    94  73  96  72 /  30  20  20  20
Columbus        96  76  97  76 /  20  20  20  30
Gainesville     93  75  95  73 /  30  20  20  20
Macon           98  75  99  73 /  20  20  30  30
Rome            95  73  97  72 /  30  20  20  20
Peachtree City  94  73  96  72 /  20  20  30  30
Vidalia         98  75  98  74 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KCHS 241125
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
725 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front to the north today will approach tonight, stalling
across the region Saturday and dissipating Sunday. Another front
will impact the area beginning on Tuesday and will become nearly
stationary in the vicinity through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
For the early morning update we have raised sky coverage and made
very minor tweaks based on recent trends to various other
elements. A weak mid level short wave has been causing isolated
showers across parts of central and western South Carolina, but
these will diminish this morning before they get a chance to move
into our local zones. We`ve also started out close to our record
high minimum temps at KCHS. (see CLIMATE section below).

Today and tonight: The persistent and deep layered ridging of the
past few days finally starts to break down in advance of a long wave
trough and embedded shorts waves over the mid-Atlantic and New
England region. Simultaneously at the surface we still find the sub-
tropical oceanic ridge across Florida, while a backdoor cold front
attempts to drop south across Virginia and into North Carolina by
nightfall, keeping the local forecast district solidly within the
warm sector. The front will gradually make a move toward the area
during tonight.

Compressional heating out ahead of the front and a deep offshore
flow through the vertical will prevail, leading to another day with
temps far above normal. Given that we`re starting out 2-4F higher
than the same time yesterday, and 850 mb temps are expected to reach
19-20C, max temps should climb to the mid and upper 90s for most of
us. There is even an outside chance of 100F across Allendale,
Screven and Jenkins where 850 mb temps might make it to near 21C in
conjunction with the highest theta-e air. Convective debris
clouds from last nights`s convection in closer proximity to the
cold front has spread overhead early this morning, and while we
anticipate that they will thin and shrink in coverage throughout
the day, we might be a tad too hot in regards to our official max
temp forecast if they remain more widespread and/or thicker.

Meanwhile, considerable dry air above the boundary layer suggests
that dew points will mix down into the mid and upper 60s during peak
heating, which even with the above normal temps will limit heat
indices to 102-105F inland. Along the coastal corridor the dewpoints
are expected to pool in the lower and middle 70s in association with
the resultant sea breeze around 2-4 pm for locations from near
Savannah, Hilton Head and Beaufort into parts of Charleston and
eastern Berkeley County. This along with temps in the lower and
middle 90s could support at least pockets of 105-107F heat indices.
But since cirriform clouds could still be prevalent and cutting
down on full insolation and spatial coverage of 105F or greater
heat indices are limited, we will defer any Heat Advisory to the
daytime forecast crew.

Modified soundings show a strong 4-5C cap in place around 6-8K ft,
and this along with the offshore trajectories will limit the amount
of convection this afternoon. At best through about 5 or 6 pm we
don`t see anything more than an isolated showers or t-storm near the
sea breeze boundary in the Charleston Tri-county zones. Further
upstream where there is little to no cap in place and greater
instability in proximity to the cold front to increase convergence
and upward vertical velocities. That along with modest 0-6km shear
of 25-30 kt could support some organized convection that forms
over the South Carolina midlands and the Pee Dee districts. That
activity would then make a run into our northern zones early this
evening, and through parts of the South Carolina counties prior to
midnight, before fading overnight. Since there are discrepancies
on how far south this would be, we have shown nothing more than
scattered Pops for Berkeley, Charleston, Colleton and Dorchester
counties from about 5-6 pm through 1 or 2 am. Slight chance or nil
Pops are currently shown elsewhere, although adjustments could be
required in later forecasts as trends become better defined.

DCAPE is quite impressive (1500 to maybe 2000 J/kg) given the dry
air aloft and the large dew point depressions at the surface. This
supports isolated severe t-storms with damaging winds across mainly
the Charleston Quad-county area around 6-11 pm. There is also a
secondary risk for some hail given WBZ lowering to around 10k ft
and modest CAPE in the hail growth zone. We continue to highlight
isolated severe weather in the HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday and Saturday night: The pattern aloft will feature a
prominent upper ridge that will be centered across the deep south
and the southern plains, extending northward into the Great Lakes
region. on the east side of the ridge axis, the flow will become
subtly more cyclonic as shortwave energy spills in from the north
and rotates around the upper ridge. At the surface, a cold front
will push in from the north as high pressure builds into the lee of
the Appalachians. The day will be a warm one, with plentiful
insolation leading to high temperatures reaching the mid to upper
90s. A few values of around 100 will be possible for southeast
Georgia too. This surface heating to a good thermodynamic
environment for thunderstorm development, especially when combined
with the support aloft from shortwave energy. Model soundings
generally show an environment with CAPE values around 3000 J/kg,
with DCAPE values as high as 1500 J/kg. Also of note, and further
supportive of high DCAPE, is the 2-3 kft separation between the
freezing level and the wet bulb zero height. Thunderstorms will
likely development across the tri-county region in the early
afternoon and then the best coverage will spread further southward
through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening. Given the
thermodynamics described above there is a decent chance to see a few
strong to severe storms. Another consequence of the approaching
front will be pooling of moisture immediately ahead of it. When
combined with temperatures in the 95-100 degree range, heat index
values could increase into the 105-108 range for a few hours. As
such, a heat advisory may eventually be needed. Overnight, ongoing
convection will diminish through the evening from north to south as
the shortwave progresses southward. Much of the late night will be
dry and lows will quite mild, likely only falling into the upper
70s for many areas.

Sunday through Monday: The overall pattern aloft will not be
terribly interesting as a large ridge encompasses most of the
southern half of the CONUS into early next week. The Saturday front
will push into southeast Georgia and dissipate. For Sunday this will
result in most convective activity taking place south of the
Savannah river where the best convergence and moisture will reside.
By Monday, convective activity looks to hit a lull across the area
as warm mid levels keep the environment capped. Temperatures will be
cooler than on Saturday, but still at or a couple degrees above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The main forecast feature to watch in the long term period will be a
front currently progged to approach the area from the west/northwest
on Tuesday and then become nearly stationary in the vicinity of the
forecast area through Thursday. This set up, especially with the
gradual breakdown of the eastern extent of the upper ridge, will
favor increased diurnal convective activity through the middle of
the week. For now pops are generally advertised in the 40 percent
chance range, but this may increase as the time approaches and
confidence grows in which particular forecast periods could be the
most active. Temperatures will remain nearly steady state featuring
low 90s for highs and mid 70s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS: While we are forecasting VFR conditions through 12z
Saturday, there does remain a low end risk for temporary flight
restrictions if any organized SHRA/TSRA from upstream are able to
move in late today and this evening (22z-03z). For now the
probabilities are too low to even include VCTS, but subsequent
forecasts can address this concern as trends become more defined.

KSAV: VFR through 06z Saturday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR. Periodic impacts from
thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon/evening, then
again by Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: The synoptic pattern reveals a sub-tropical ridge
stretching east to west across Florida, with a Piedmont trough and
cold front to the north and northwest that slowly approaches with
time. The pressure gradient in between will remain tight and that
along with some enhancement due to the resultant afternoon sea
breeze circulations will generate elevated S-SW winds as high as
15-20 kt across all waters. Periodic gusts to 25 kt are likely,
especially in Charleston Harbor and across the Charleston County
nearby Atlantic waters. But duration and/or coverage is limited
enough where conditions will stay just below any advisory
thresholds. Seas will average 3-4 ft over the ocean, while waves
build to 1-2 ft in Charleston Harbor.

Tonight: The cold front will eventually slide further south, but
still remains north-northwest of the local waters. The packed
pressure gradient and enhanced low level jetting will keep south and
southwest winds elevated, again as high as 15 or 20 kt. Gusts near
25 kt will occur at times, but not enough to justify raising the SCA
flags. Seas will hold in a steady state, around 3-4 ft, although a
few 5 footers might arrive across AMZ374. Mariners are also alerted
to the potential for scattered showers and t-storms, a few of which
could be strong or even severe early tonight, and mainly on the
Charleston County coastal waters.

Rip Currents: Similar to yesterday a fairly decent afternoon sea
breeze will give a boost to the south and southwest winds,
generating a moderate parallel or longshore current moving toward
the north and northeast. Although the actual rip current risk is
low, we again advise that no one enter the surf that doesn`t know
how to swim.

Saturday through Wednesday: The strongest winds through the
period are expected to occur Saturday through Sunday as a front
pushes southward through the local waters. Perhaps has much as
15-20 kt of flow will be possible on Saturday in the southwest
flow ahead of the boundary, with another period of modest flow on
Sunday out of the northwest behind the southward moving boundary.
For now it does not appear that conditions will warrant any Small
Craft Advisories. Thereafter for the early part of next week,
south to southwest flow will prevail with winds no stronger than
15 knots. Seas will be highest over the weekend, generally 2-4
feet which will then diminish to 1-3 ft for early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum for June 24th...
KCHS...79 set in 1998.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 241125
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
725 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front to the north today will approach tonight, stalling
across the region Saturday and dissipating Sunday. Another front
will impact the area beginning on Tuesday and will become nearly
stationary in the vicinity through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
For the early morning update we have raised sky coverage and made
very minor tweaks based on recent trends to various other
elements. A weak mid level short wave has been causing isolated
showers across parts of central and western South Carolina, but
these will diminish this morning before they get a chance to move
into our local zones. We`ve also started out close to our record
high minimum temps at KCHS. (see CLIMATE section below).

Today and tonight: The persistent and deep layered ridging of the
past few days finally starts to break down in advance of a long wave
trough and embedded shorts waves over the mid-Atlantic and New
England region. Simultaneously at the surface we still find the sub-
tropical oceanic ridge across Florida, while a backdoor cold front
attempts to drop south across Virginia and into North Carolina by
nightfall, keeping the local forecast district solidly within the
warm sector. The front will gradually make a move toward the area
during tonight.

Compressional heating out ahead of the front and a deep offshore
flow through the vertical will prevail, leading to another day with
temps far above normal. Given that we`re starting out 2-4F higher
than the same time yesterday, and 850 mb temps are expected to reach
19-20C, max temps should climb to the mid and upper 90s for most of
us. There is even an outside chance of 100F across Allendale,
Screven and Jenkins where 850 mb temps might make it to near 21C in
conjunction with the highest theta-e air. Convective debris
clouds from last nights`s convection in closer proximity to the
cold front has spread overhead early this morning, and while we
anticipate that they will thin and shrink in coverage throughout
the day, we might be a tad too hot in regards to our official max
temp forecast if they remain more widespread and/or thicker.

Meanwhile, considerable dry air above the boundary layer suggests
that dew points will mix down into the mid and upper 60s during peak
heating, which even with the above normal temps will limit heat
indices to 102-105F inland. Along the coastal corridor the dewpoints
are expected to pool in the lower and middle 70s in association with
the resultant sea breeze around 2-4 pm for locations from near
Savannah, Hilton Head and Beaufort into parts of Charleston and
eastern Berkeley County. This along with temps in the lower and
middle 90s could support at least pockets of 105-107F heat indices.
But since cirriform clouds could still be prevalent and cutting
down on full insolation and spatial coverage of 105F or greater
heat indices are limited, we will defer any Heat Advisory to the
daytime forecast crew.

Modified soundings show a strong 4-5C cap in place around 6-8K ft,
and this along with the offshore trajectories will limit the amount
of convection this afternoon. At best through about 5 or 6 pm we
don`t see anything more than an isolated showers or t-storm near the
sea breeze boundary in the Charleston Tri-county zones. Further
upstream where there is little to no cap in place and greater
instability in proximity to the cold front to increase convergence
and upward vertical velocities. That along with modest 0-6km shear
of 25-30 kt could support some organized convection that forms
over the South Carolina midlands and the Pee Dee districts. That
activity would then make a run into our northern zones early this
evening, and through parts of the South Carolina counties prior to
midnight, before fading overnight. Since there are discrepancies
on how far south this would be, we have shown nothing more than
scattered Pops for Berkeley, Charleston, Colleton and Dorchester
counties from about 5-6 pm through 1 or 2 am. Slight chance or nil
Pops are currently shown elsewhere, although adjustments could be
required in later forecasts as trends become better defined.

DCAPE is quite impressive (1500 to maybe 2000 J/kg) given the dry
air aloft and the large dew point depressions at the surface. This
supports isolated severe t-storms with damaging winds across mainly
the Charleston Quad-county area around 6-11 pm. There is also a
secondary risk for some hail given WBZ lowering to around 10k ft
and modest CAPE in the hail growth zone. We continue to highlight
isolated severe weather in the HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday and Saturday night: The pattern aloft will feature a
prominent upper ridge that will be centered across the deep south
and the southern plains, extending northward into the Great Lakes
region. on the east side of the ridge axis, the flow will become
subtly more cyclonic as shortwave energy spills in from the north
and rotates around the upper ridge. At the surface, a cold front
will push in from the north as high pressure builds into the lee of
the Appalachians. The day will be a warm one, with plentiful
insolation leading to high temperatures reaching the mid to upper
90s. A few values of around 100 will be possible for southeast
Georgia too. This surface heating to a good thermodynamic
environment for thunderstorm development, especially when combined
with the support aloft from shortwave energy. Model soundings
generally show an environment with CAPE values around 3000 J/kg,
with DCAPE values as high as 1500 J/kg. Also of note, and further
supportive of high DCAPE, is the 2-3 kft separation between the
freezing level and the wet bulb zero height. Thunderstorms will
likely development across the tri-county region in the early
afternoon and then the best coverage will spread further southward
through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening. Given the
thermodynamics described above there is a decent chance to see a few
strong to severe storms. Another consequence of the approaching
front will be pooling of moisture immediately ahead of it. When
combined with temperatures in the 95-100 degree range, heat index
values could increase into the 105-108 range for a few hours. As
such, a heat advisory may eventually be needed. Overnight, ongoing
convection will diminish through the evening from north to south as
the shortwave progresses southward. Much of the late night will be
dry and lows will quite mild, likely only falling into the upper
70s for many areas.

Sunday through Monday: The overall pattern aloft will not be
terribly interesting as a large ridge encompasses most of the
southern half of the CONUS into early next week. The Saturday front
will push into southeast Georgia and dissipate. For Sunday this will
result in most convective activity taking place south of the
Savannah river where the best convergence and moisture will reside.
By Monday, convective activity looks to hit a lull across the area
as warm mid levels keep the environment capped. Temperatures will be
cooler than on Saturday, but still at or a couple degrees above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The main forecast feature to watch in the long term period will be a
front currently progged to approach the area from the west/northwest
on Tuesday and then become nearly stationary in the vicinity of the
forecast area through Thursday. This set up, especially with the
gradual breakdown of the eastern extent of the upper ridge, will
favor increased diurnal convective activity through the middle of
the week. For now pops are generally advertised in the 40 percent
chance range, but this may increase as the time approaches and
confidence grows in which particular forecast periods could be the
most active. Temperatures will remain nearly steady state featuring
low 90s for highs and mid 70s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS: While we are forecasting VFR conditions through 12z
Saturday, there does remain a low end risk for temporary flight
restrictions if any organized SHRA/TSRA from upstream are able to
move in late today and this evening (22z-03z). For now the
probabilities are too low to even include VCTS, but subsequent
forecasts can address this concern as trends become more defined.

KSAV: VFR through 06z Saturday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR. Periodic impacts from
thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon/evening, then
again by Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: The synoptic pattern reveals a sub-tropical ridge
stretching east to west across Florida, with a Piedmont trough and
cold front to the north and northwest that slowly approaches with
time. The pressure gradient in between will remain tight and that
along with some enhancement due to the resultant afternoon sea
breeze circulations will generate elevated S-SW winds as high as
15-20 kt across all waters. Periodic gusts to 25 kt are likely,
especially in Charleston Harbor and across the Charleston County
nearby Atlantic waters. But duration and/or coverage is limited
enough where conditions will stay just below any advisory
thresholds. Seas will average 3-4 ft over the ocean, while waves
build to 1-2 ft in Charleston Harbor.

Tonight: The cold front will eventually slide further south, but
still remains north-northwest of the local waters. The packed
pressure gradient and enhanced low level jetting will keep south and
southwest winds elevated, again as high as 15 or 20 kt. Gusts near
25 kt will occur at times, but not enough to justify raising the SCA
flags. Seas will hold in a steady state, around 3-4 ft, although a
few 5 footers might arrive across AMZ374. Mariners are also alerted
to the potential for scattered showers and t-storms, a few of which
could be strong or even severe early tonight, and mainly on the
Charleston County coastal waters.

Rip Currents: Similar to yesterday a fairly decent afternoon sea
breeze will give a boost to the south and southwest winds,
generating a moderate parallel or longshore current moving toward
the north and northeast. Although the actual rip current risk is
low, we again advise that no one enter the surf that doesn`t know
how to swim.

Saturday through Wednesday: The strongest winds through the
period are expected to occur Saturday through Sunday as a front
pushes southward through the local waters. Perhaps has much as
15-20 kt of flow will be possible on Saturday in the southwest
flow ahead of the boundary, with another period of modest flow on
Sunday out of the northwest behind the southward moving boundary.
For now it does not appear that conditions will warrant any Small
Craft Advisories. Thereafter for the early part of next week,
south to southwest flow will prevail with winds no stronger than
15 knots. Seas will be highest over the weekend, generally 2-4
feet which will then diminish to 1-3 ft for early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum for June 24th...
KCHS...79 set in 1998.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 241048
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
648 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front to the north today will approach tonight, stalling
across the region Saturday and dissipating Sunday. Another front
will impact the area beginning on Tuesday and will become nearly
stationary in the vicinity through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
For the early morning update we have raised sky coverage and made
very minor tweaks based on recent trends to various other
elements. A weak mid level short wave has been causing isolated
showers across parts of central and western South Carolina, but
these will diminish this morning before they get a chance to move
into our local zones. We`ve also started out close to our record
high minimum temps at KCHS. (see CLIMATE section below).

Today and tonight: The persistent and deep layered ridging of the
past few days finally starts to break down in advance of a long wave
trough and embedded shorts waves over the mid-Atlantic and New
England region. Simultaneously at the surface we still find the sub-
tropical oceanic ridge across Florida, while a backdoor cold front
attempts to drop south across Virginia and into North Carolina by
nightfall, keeping the local forecast district solidly within the
warm sector. The front will gradually make a move toward the area
during tonight.

Compressional heating out ahead of the front and a deep offshore
flow through the vertical will prevail, leading to another day with
temps far above normal. Given that we`re starting out 2-4F higher
than the same time yesterday, and 850 mb temps are expected to reach
19-20C, max temps should climb to the mid and upper 90s for most of
us. There is even an outside chance of 100F across Allendale,
Screven and Jenkins where 850 mb temps might make it to near 21C in
conjunction with the highest theta-e air. Convective debris
clouds from last nights`s convection in closer proximity to the
cold front has spread overhead early this morning, and while we
anticipate that they will thin and shrink in coverage throughout
the day, we might be a tad too hot in regards to our official max
temp forecast if they remain more widespread and/or thicker.

Meanwhile, considerable dry air above the boundary layer suggests
that dew points will mix down into the mid and upper 60s during peak
heating, which even with the above normal temps will limit heat
indices to 102-105F inland. Along the coastal corridor the dewpoints
are expected to pool in the lower and middle 70s in association with
the resultant sea breeze around 2-4 pm for locations from near
Savannah, Hilton Head and Beaufort into parts of Charleston and
eastern Berkeley County. This along with temps in the lower and
middle 90s could support at least pockets of 105-107F heat indices.
But since cirriform clouds could still be prevalent and cutting
down on full insolation and spatial coverage of 105F or greater
heat indices are limited, we will defer any Heat Advisory to the
daytime forecast crew.

Modified soundings show a strong 4-5C cap in place around 6-8K ft,
and this along with the offshore trajectories will limit the amount
of convection this afternoon. At best through about 5 or 6 pm we
don`t see anything more than an isolated showers or t-storm near the
sea breeze boundary in the Charleston Tri-county zones. Further
upstream where there is little to no cap in place and greater
instability in proximity to the cold front to increase convergence
and upward vertical velocities. That along with modest 0-6km shear
of 25-30 kt could support some organized convection that forms
over the South Carolina midlands and the Pee Dee districts. That
activity would then make a run into our northern zones early this
evening, and through parts of the South Carolina counties prior to
midnight, before fading overnight. Since there are discrepancies
on how far south this would be, we have shown nothing more than
scattered Pops for Berkeley, Charleston, Colleton and Dorchester
counties from about 5-6 pm through 1 or 2 am. Slight chance or nil
Pops are currently shown elsewhere, although adjustments could be
required in later forecasts as trends become better defined.

DCAPE is quite impressive (1500 to maybe 2000 J/kg) given the dry
air aloft and the large dew point depressions at the surface. This
supports isolated severe t-storms with damaging winds across mainly
the Charleston Quad-county area around 6-11 pm. There is also a
secondary risk for some hail given WBZ lowering to around 10k ft
and modest CAPE in the hail growth zone. We continue to highlight
isolated severe weather in the HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday and Saturday night: The pattern aloft will feature a
prominent upper ridge that will be centered across the deep south
and the southern plains, extending northward into the Great Lakes
region. on the east side of the ridge axis, the flow will become
subtly more cyclonic as shortwave energy spills in from the north
and rotates around the upper ridge. At the surface, a cold front
will push in from the north as high pressure builds into the lee of
the Appalachians. The day will be a warm one, with plentiful
insolation leading to high temperatures reaching the mid to upper
90s. A few values of around 100 will be possible for southeast
Georgia too. This surface heating to a good thermodynamic
environment for thunderstorm development, especially when combined
with the support aloft from shortwave energy. Model soundings
generally show an environment with CAPE values around 3000 J/kg,
with DCAPE values as high as 1500 J/kg. Also of note, and further
supportive of high DCAPE, is the 2-3 kft separation between the
freezing level and the wet bulb zero height. Thunderstorms will
likely development across the tri-county region in the early
afternoon and then the best coverage will spread further southward
through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening. Given the
thermodynamics described above there is a decent chance to see a few
strong to severe storms. Another consequence of the approaching
front will be pooling of moisture immediately ahead of it. When
combined with temperatures in the 95-100 degree range, heat index
values could increase into the 105-108 range for a few hours. As
such, a heat advisory may eventually be needed. Overnight, ongoing
convection will diminish through the evening from north to south as
the shortwave progresses southward. Much of the late night will be
dry and lows will quite mild, likely only falling into the upper
70s for many areas.

Sunday through Monday: The overall pattern aloft will not be
terribly interesting as a large ridge encompasses most of the
southern half of the CONUS into early next week. The Saturday front
will push into southeast Georgia and dissipate. For Sunday this will
result in most convective activity taking place south of the
Savannah river where the best convergence and moisture will reside.
By Monday, convective activity looks to hit a lull across the area
as warm mid levels keep the environment capped. Temperatures will be
cooler than on Saturday, but still at or a couple degrees above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The main forecast feature to watch in the long term period will be a
front currently progged to approach the area from the west/northwest
on Tuesday and then become nearly stationary in the vicinity of the
forecast area through Thursday. This set up, especially with the
gradual breakdown of the eastern extent of the upper ridge, will
favor increased diurnal convective activity through the middle of
the week. For now pops are generally advertised in the 40 percent
chance range, but this may increase as the time approaches and
confidence grows in which particular forecast periods could be the
most active. Temperatures will remain nearly steady state featuring
low 90s for highs and mid 70s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS: While we are forecasting VFR conditions through 06z
Saturday, there does remain a low end risk for temporary flight
restrictions if any organized SHRA/TSRA from upstream are able to
move in late today and this evening (22z-03z). For now the
probabilities are too low to even include VCTS.

KSAV: VFR through 06z Saturday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR. Periodic impacts from
thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon/evening, then
again by Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: The synoptic pattern reveals a sub-tropical ridge
stretching east to west across Florida, with a Piedmont trough and
cold front to the north and northwest that slowly approaches with
time. The pressure gradient in between will remain tight and that
along with some enhancement due to the resultant afternoon sea
breeze circulations will generate elevated SW winds as high as
15-20 kt across all waters. Periodic gusts to 25 kt are likely,
especially in Charleston Harbor and across the Charleston County
nearby Atlantic waters. But duration and/or coverage is limited
enough where conditions will stay just below any advisory
thresholds. Seas will average 3-4 ft over the ocean, while waves
build to 1-2 ft in Charleston Harbor.

Tonight: The cold front will eventually slide further south, but
still remains north-northwest of the local waters. The packed
pressure gradient and enhanced low level jetting will keep south and
southwest winds elevated, again as high as 15 or 20 kt. Gusts near
25 kt will occur at times, but not enough to justify raising the SCA
flags. Seas will hold in a steady state, around 3-4 ft, although a
few 5 footers might arrive across AMZ374. Mariners are also alerted
to the potential for scattered showers and t-storms, a few of which
could be strong or even severe early tonight, and mainly on the
Charleston County coastal waters.

Rip Currents: Similar to yesterday a fairly decent afternoon sea
breeze will give a boost to the south and southwest winds,
generating a moderate parallel or longshore current moving toward
the north and northeast. Although the actual rip current risk is
low, we again advise that no one enter the surf that doesn`t know
how to swim.

Saturday through Wednesday: The strongest winds through the
period are expected to occur Saturday through Sunday as a front
pushes southward through the local waters. Perhaps has much as
15-20 kt of flow will be possible on Saturday in the southwest
flow ahead of the boundary, with another period of modest flow on
Sunday out of the northwest behind the southward moving boundary.
For now it does not appear that conditions will warrant any Small
Craft Advisories. Thereafter for the early part of next week,
south to southwest flow will prevail with winds no stronger than
15 knots. Seas will be highest over the weekend, generally 2-4
feet which will then diminish to 1-3 ft for early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum for June 24th...
KCHS...79 set in 1998.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS62 KFFC 241041
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
640 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.Update...
Have incresed the pops for a few hours across the far north based on radar.
Also increased the cloud cover for this morning.

41

.Previous...
.SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...
A convective system was sinking southward this morning ahead
of a surface front that was drifting into the TN Valley. This system
should affect north GA this morning and a few thunderstorms were
currently developing over the far northern zones. There has been
a weakening trend for now for that portion headed toward north
GA. The eventual trends of this system are uncertain however chance
or slight chance pops have been included for much of the forecast
area today except for the south central counties. There is the
potential for a few storms to become strong to severe. The surface
front should continue to push southward and stall in the vicinity of
central GA by Saturday morning. Have kept a slight chance of convection
overnight and continued into Saturday. Best chances Saturday should be
from Atlanta to Athens and south.

Heat Index values stay just below advisory criteria today...however
Saturday is showing heat index values of 105 over some areas of central
GA. Will continue to monitor this for a potential heat advisory.


41


.LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...
Weak to moderate upper-level ridging remains in place over the
region to start the extended forecast period. Ridge does not appear
to be strong enough to suppress all convection...especially
considering the proximity of surface boundaries and strong surface
heating. Pattern shifts to northwest upper flow early in the new
work week with continued scattered convection. Convection should
also continue to show a decidedly diurnal bias...however passing
short waves and surface boundaries will keep convective chances from
drying up completely overnight through the period.

High temperatures remain above seasonal normals into early next
week...but should moderate somewhat as the upper ridge retreats west
and is replaced with northwesterly upper flow.


20


&&


AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
Continued overall VFR conditions anticipated for this TAF cycle. Current
convection over TN moving south...but uncertain if it will stay together
long enough to reach the taf sites. Will continue to watch this. For now
no convection indicated in the tafs. Expect scattered cumulus today but
also some mid/high clouds from convective complex. Winds remaining
southwest.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
High on all elements except medium on location and development of
convection.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          96  74  98  73 /  20  30  20  30
Atlanta         94  77  96  75 /  20  20  30  30
Blairsville     89  68  91  69 /  30  30  20  20
Cartersville    94  73  96  72 /  30  20  20  20
Columbus        96  76  97  76 /  20  20  20  30
Gainesville     93  75  95  73 /  30  20  20  20
Macon           98  75  99  73 /  20  20  30  30
Rome            95  73  97  72 /  30  20  20  20
Peachtree City  94  73  96  72 /  20  20  30  30
Vidalia         98  75  98  74 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KCAE 241024
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
624 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sinking southward will move into the forecast area
tonight. The front will be stalled near the south part of the
forecast area Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms will be
associated with the front. It will be very hot ahead of the front
today.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An increase in low-level moisture ahead of the cold front with
convergence into a lee-side trough plus strong heating support
thunderstorms today. However, ridging south of the area should
continue to limit moisture. The models also depicted mid-level
shortwave ridging during the time of maximum heating. The NAM and
GFS MOS indicated low pops. The high-resolution models displayed
scattered coverage mainly in the north part closer to greater
moisture and less upper ridging. Forecasted pops of 30 percent
south to 50 percent north. These values were higher than most of
the guidance but appeared reasonable based on expected strong
instability and outflow boundaries from convection north of the
area. The NAM displayed surface-based LIs -7 to -8. The strong
instability with an inverted-v type sounding and dry air in the
mid-levels aiding downdrafts supports possible damaging wind with
the thunderstorms. Hail appears less of a threat but not out of
the question because evaporative cooling may help lower wet-bulb
zero heights and the models displayed considerable CAPE in the
hail growth region. It will be hot with h85 westerly flow and
temperatures near 21 C. Expect high temperatures again today
around 100. The increased low-level moisture will result in higher
heat index values. Based on the guidance consensus expect heat
indices peaking near 105 and just below the heat advisory
criteria of 110.

Convergence associated with the cold front sinking southward and
into the forecast area plus a possible mid-level shortwave trough
supports thunderstorms tonight but limited moisture may continue
to help keep coverage scattered. Followed the guidance consensus
and forecasted chance pops. Expect moderate instability continuing
well into the night because of the lingering effects of the
strong diurnal heating and possible lift ahead of the mid-level
feature. The instability supports a continued threat of damaging
wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The models displayed the front mainly near the south part of the
forecast area Saturday and Saturday night. Leaned toward the
higher guidance pops because of convergence near the front with
the greater chance in the south section. The NAM indicated
moderate to strong instability with surface-based LIs -5 north to
-8 south Saturday. The instability supports a continued threat of
thunderstorms with damaging wind. Followed the guidance consensus
for the temperature forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The models have upper ridging extending into the forecast area
early in the period with the ridging shifting farther westward by
the middle of the week. There may be weak surface troughing early
with a front stalling near the area late. The models have not
been consistent with the placement of deeper moisture. The GFS and
ECWMF MOS have pops 10 to 40 percent during the period. Expect
temperatures near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected today into the evening hours.

High pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to
ridge into the area as a cold front remains north of the area. The
cold front will push closer to the area by tonight.

Latest radar loop indicating some light showers over portions of
the northern CSRA and central Midlands, however not expecting
this light precipitation to affect any of the TAF sites. Southwest
winds will increase again after 14Z from the west 10 to 15 knots.
Some convection may develop later this afternoon into the evening,
but not enough confidence to mention at any of the TAF sites at
this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible early Saturday due
to scattered thunderstorms. Diurnal convection expected through
Tuesday with a frontal boundary near the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 241012
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
612 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sinking southward will move into the forecast area
tonight. The front will be stalled near the south part of the
forecast area Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms will be
associated with the front. It will be very hot ahead of the front
today.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An increase in low-level moisture ahead of the cold front with
convergence into a lee-side trough plus strong heating support
thunderstorms today. However, ridging south of the area should
continue to limit moisture. The models also depicted mid-level
shortwave ridging during the time of maximum heating. The NAM and
GFS MOS indicated low pops. The high-resolution models displayed
scattered coverage mainly in the north part closer to greater
moisture and less upper ridging. Forecasted pops of 30 percent
south to 50 percent north. These values were higher than most of
the guidance but appeared reasonable based on expected strong
instability and outflow boundaries from convection north of the
area. The NAM displayed surface-based LIs -7 to -8. The strong
instability with an inverted-v type sounding and dry air in the
mid-levels aiding downdrafts supports possible damaging wind with
the thunderstorms. Hail appears less of a threat but not out of
the question because evaporative cooling may help lower wet-bulb
zero heights and the models displayed considerable CAPE in the
hail growth region. It will be hot with h85 westerly flow and
temperatures near 21 C. Expect high temperatures again today
around 100. The increased low-level moisture will result in higher
heat index values. Based on the guidance consensus expect heat
indices peaking near 105 and just below the heat advisory
criteria of 110.

Convergence associated with the cold front sinking southward and
into the forecast area plus a possible mid-level shortwave trough
supports thunderstorms tonight but limited moisture may continue
to help keep coverage scattered. Followed the guidance consensus
and forecasted chance pops. Expect moderate instability continuing
well into the night because of the lingering effects of the
strong diurnal heating and possible lift ahead of the mid-level
feature. The instability supports a continued threat of damaging
wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The models displayed the front mainly near the south part of the
forecast area Saturday and Saturday night. Leaned toward the
higher guidance pops because of convergence near the front with
the greater chance in the south section. The NAM indicated
moderate to strong instability with surface-based LIs -5 north to
-8 south Saturday. The instability supports a continued threat of
thunderstorms with damaging wind. Followed the guidance consensus
for the temperature forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The models have upper ridging extending into the forecast area
early in the period with the ridging shifting farther westward by
the middle of the week. There may be weak surface troughing early
with a front stalling near the area late. The models have not
been consistent with the placement of deeper moisture. The GFS and
ECWMF MOS have pops 10 to 40 percent during the period. Expect
temperatures near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected today into the evening hours.

High pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to
ridge into the area as a cold front remains north of the area. The
cold front will push closer to the area by tonight.

Southwest winds will increase again after 14Z from the west 10 to
15 knots. Some convection may develop later this afternoon into
the evening, but not enough confidence to mention at any of the
TAF sites at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible early Saturday due
to scattered thunderstorms. Diurnal convection expected through
Tuesday with a frontal boundary near the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 240929
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
529 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front to the north today will approach tonight, stalling
across the region Saturday and dissipating Sunday. Another front
will impact the area beginning on Tuesday and will become nearly
stationary in the vicinity through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today and tonight: The persistent and deep layered ridging of the
past few days finally starts to break down in advance of a long wave
trough and embedded shorts waves over the mid-Atlantic and New
England region. Simultaneously at the surface we still find the sub-
tropical oceanic ridge across Florida, while a backdoor cold front
attempts to drop south across Virginia and into North Carolina by
nightfall, keeping the local forecast district solidly within the
warm sector. The front will gradually make a move toward the area
during tonight.

Compressional heating out ahead of the front and a deep offshore
flow through the vertical will prevail, leading to another day with
temps far above normal. Given that we`re starting out 2-4F higher
than the same time yesterday, and 850 mb temps are expected to reach
19-20C, max temps should climb to the mid and upper 90s for most of
us. There is even an outside chance of 100F across Allendale,
Screven and Jenkins where 850 mb temps might make it to near 21C in
conjunction with the highest theta-e air. Convective debris
clouds from last nights`s convection in closer proximity to the
cold front has spread overhead early this morning, and while we
anticipate that they will thin and shrink in coverage throughout
the day, we might be a tad too hot in regards to our official max
temp forecast if they remain more widespread and/or thicker.

Meanwhile, considerable dry air above the boundary layer suggests
that dew points will mix down into the mid and upper 60s during peak
heating, which even with the above normal temps will limit heat
indices to 102-105F inland. Along the coastal corridor the dewpoints
are expected to pool in the lower and middle 70s in association with
the resultant sea breeze around 2-4 pm for locations from near
Savannah, Hilton Head and Beaufort into parts of Charleston and
eastern Berkeley County. This along with temps in the lower and
middle 90s could support at least pockets of 105-107F heat indices.
But since cirriform clouds could still be prevalent and cutting
down on full insolation and spatial coverage of 105F or greater
heat indices are limited, we will defer any Heat Advisory to the
daytime forecast crew.

Modified soundings show a strong 4-5C cap in place around 6-8K ft,
and this along with the offshore trajectories will limit the amount
of convection this afternoon. At best through about 5 or 6 pm we
don`t see anything more than an isolated showers or t-storm near the
sea breeze boundary in the Charleston Tri-county zones. Further
upstream where there is little to no cap in place and greater
instability in proximity to the cold front to increase convergence
and upward vertical velocities. That along with modest 0-6km shear
of 25-30 kt could support some organized convection that forms
over the South Carolina midlands and the Pee Dee districts. That
activity would then make a run into our northern zones early this
evening, and through parts of the South Carolina counties prior to
midnight, before fading overnight. Since there are discrepancies
on how far south this would be, we have shown nothing more than
scattered Pops for Berkeley, Charleston, Colleton and Dorchester
counties from about 5-6 pm through 1 or 2 am. Slight chance or nil
Pops are currently shown elsewhere, although adjustments could be
required in later forecasts as trends become better defined.

DCAPE is quite impressive (1500 to maybe 2000 J/kg) given the dry
air aloft and the large dew point depressions at the surface. This
supports isolated severe t-storms with damaging winds across mainly
the Charleston Quad-county area around 6-11 pm. There is also a
secondary risk for some hail given WBZ lowering to around 10k ft
and modest CAPE in the hail growth zone. We continue to highlight
isolated severe weather in the HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday and Saturday night: The pattern aloft will feature a
prominent upper ridge that will be centered across the deep south
and the southern plains, extending northward into the Great Lakes
region. on the east side of the ridge axis, the flow will become
subtly more cyclonic as shortwave energy spills in from the north
and rotates around the upper ridge. At the surface, a cold front
will push in from the north as high pressure builds into the lee of
the Appalachians. The day will be a warm one, with plentiful
insolation leading to high temperatures reaching the mid to upper
90s. A few values of around 100 will be possible for southeast
Georgia too. This surface heating to a good thermodynamic
environment for thunderstorm development, especially when combined
with the support aloft from shortwave energy. Model soundings
generally show an environment with CAPE values around 3000 J/kg,
with DCAPE values as high as 1500 J/kg. Also of note, and further
supportive of high DCAPE, is the 2-3 kft separation between the
freezing level and the wet bulb zero height. Thunderstorms will
likely development across the tri-county region in the early
afternoon and then the best coverage will spread further southward
through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening. Given the
thermodynamics described above there is a decent chance to see a few
strong to severe storms. Another consequence of the approaching
front will be pooling of moisture immediately ahead of it. When
combined with temperatures in the 95-100 degree range, heat index
values could increase into the 105-108 range for a few hours. As
such, a heat advisory may eventually be needed. Overnight, ongoing
convection will diminish through the evening from north to south as
the shortwave progresses southward. Much of the late night will be
dry and lows will quite mild, likely only falling into the upper
70s for many areas.

Sunday through Monday: The overall pattern aloft will not be
terribly interesting as a large ridge encompasses most of the
southern half of the CONUS into early next week. The Saturday front
will push into southeast Georgia and dissipate. For Sunday this will
result in most convective activity taking place south of the
Savannah river where the best convergence and moisture will reside.
By Monday, convective activity looks to hit a lull across the area
as warm mid levels keep the environment capped. Temperatures will be
cooler than on Saturday, but still at or a couple degrees above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The main forecast feature to watch in the long term period will be a
front currently progged to approach the area from the west/northwest
on Tuesday and then become nearly stationary in the vicinity of the
forecast area through Thursday. This set up, especially with the
gradual breakdown of the eastern extent of the upper ridge, will
favor increased diurnal convective activity through the middle of
the week. For now pops are generally advertised in the 40 percent
chance range, but this may increase as the time approaches and
confidence grows in which particular forecast periods could be the
most active. Temperatures will remain nearly steady state featuring
low 90s for highs and mid 70s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS: While we are forecasting VFR conditions through 06z
Saturday, there does remain a low end risk for temporary flight
restrictions if any organized SHRA/TSRA from upstream are able to
move in late today and this evening (22z-03z). For now the
probabilities are too low to even include VCTS.

KSAV: VFR through 06z Saturday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR. Periodic impacts from
thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon/evening, then
again by Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: The synoptic pattern reveals a sub-tropical ridge
stretching east to west across Florida, with a Piedmont trough and
cold front to the north and northwest that slowly approaches with
time. The pressure gradient in between will remain tight and that
along with some enhancement due to the resultant afternoon sea
breeze circulations will generate elevated SW winds as high as
15-20 kt across all waters. Periodic gusts to 25 kt are likely,
especially in Charleston Harbor and across the Charleston County
nearby Atlantic waters. But duration and/or coverage is limited
enough where conditions will stay just below any advisory
thresholds. Seas will average 3-4 ft over the ocean, while waves
build to 1-2 ft in Charleston Harbor.

Tonight: The cold front will eventually slide further south, but
still remains north-northwest of the local waters. The packed
pressure gradient and enhanced low level jetting will keep south and
southwest winds elevated, again as high as 15 or 20 kt. Gusts near
25 kt will occur at times, but not enough to justify raising the SCA
flags. Seas will hold in a steady state, around 3-4 ft, although a
few 5 footers might arrive across AMZ374. Mariners are also alerted
to the potential for scattered showers and t-storms, a few of which
could be strong or even severe early tonight, and mainly on the
Charleston County coastal waters.

Rip Currents: Similar to yesterday a fairly decent afternoon sea
breeze will give a boost to the south and southwest winds,
generating a moderate parallel or longshore current moving toward
the north and northeast. Although the actual rip current risk is
low, we again advise that no one enter the surf that doesn`t know
how to swim.

Saturday through Wednesday: The strongest winds through the
period are expected to occur Saturday through Sunday as a front
pushes southward through the local waters. Perhaps has much as
15-20 kt of flow will be possible on Saturday in the southwest
flow ahead of the boundary, with another period of modest flow on
Sunday out of the northwest behind the southward moving boundary.
For now it does not appear that conditions will warrant any Small
Craft Advisories. Thereafter for the early part of next week,
south to southwest flow will prevail with winds no stronger than
15 knots. Seas will be highest over the weekend, generally 2-4
feet which will then diminish to 1-3 ft for early next week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 240922
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
522 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sinking southward will move into the forecast area
tonight. The front will be stalled near the south part of the
forecast area Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms will be
associated with the front. It will be very hot ahead of the front
today.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An increase in low-level moisture ahead of the cold front with
convergence into a lee-side trough plus strong heating support
thunderstorms today. However, ridging south of the area should
continue to limit moisture. The models also depicted mid-level
shortwave ridging during the time of maximum heating. The NAM and
GFS MOS indicated low pops. The high-resolution models displayed
scattered coverage mainly in the north part closer to greater
moisture and less upper ridging. Forecasted pops of 30 percent
south to 50 percent north. These values were higher than most of
the guidance but appeared reasonable based on expected strong
instability and outflow boundaries from convection north of the
area. The NAM displayed surface-based LIs -7 to -8. The strong
instability with an inverted-v type sounding and dry air in the
mid-levels aiding downdrafts supports possible damaging wind with
the thunderstorms. Hail appears less of a threat but not out of
the question because evaporative cooling may help lower wet-bulb
zero heights and the models displayed considerable CAPE in the
hail growth region. It will be hot with h85 westerly flow and
temperatures near 21 C. Expect high temperatures again today
around 100. The increased low-level moisture will result in higher
heat index values. Based on the guidance consensus expect heat
indices peaking near 105 and just below the heat advisory
criteria of 110.

Convergence associated with the cold front sinking southward and
into the forecast area plus a possible mid-level shortwave trough
supports thunderstorms tonight but limited moisture may continue
to help keep coverage scattered. Followed the guidance consensus
and forecasted chance pops. Expect moderate instability continuing
well into the night because of the lingering effects of the
strong diurnal heating and possible lift ahead of the mid-level
feature. The instability supports a continued threat of damaging
wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The models displayed the front mainly near the south part of the
forecast area Saturday and Saturday night. Leaned toward the
higher guidance pops because of convergence near the front with
the greater chance in the south section. The NAM indicated
moderate to strong instability with surface-based LIs -5 north to
-8 south Saturday. The instability supports a continued threat of
thunderstorms with damaging wind. Followed the guidance consensus
for the temperature forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The models have upper ridging extending into the forecast area
early in the period with the ridging shifting farther westward by
the middle of the week. There may be weak surface troughing early
with a front stalling near the area late. The models have not
been consistent with the placement of deeper moisture. The GFS and
ECWMF MOS have pops 10 to 40 percent during the period. Expect
temperatures near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected through the middle of the
afternoon.

High pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to
ridge into the area as a cold front remains north of the area.

A 25 to 30 knot low level jet will help keep the boundary layer
mixed and inhibit fog development during the early morning hours.
Southwesterly winds 5 to 10 knots expected overnight. Winds will
increase again after 14Z from the west 10 to 15 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Friday evening due
to scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Diurnal convection expected
through Tuesday with a frontal boundary near the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 240830
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
430 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sinking southward will move into the forecast area
tonight. The front will be stalled near the south part of the
forecast area Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms will be
associated with the front. It will be very hot ahead of the front
today.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An increase in low-level moisture ahead of the cold front with
convergence into a lee-side trough plus strong heating support
thunderstorms today. However, ridging south of the area should
continue to limit moisture. The models also depicted mid-level
shortwave ridging during the time of maximum heating. The NAM and
GFS MOS indicated low pops. The high-resolution models displayed
scattered coverage mainly in the north part closer to greater
moisture and less upper ridging. Forecasted pops of 30 percent
south to 50 percent north. These values were higher than most of
the guidance but appeared reasonable based on expected strong
instability and outflow boundaries from convection north of the
area. The NAM displayed surface-based LIs -7 to -8. The strong
instability with an inverted-v type sounding and dry air in the
mid-levels aiding downdrafts supports possible damaging wind with
the thunderstorms. Hail appears less of a threat but not out of
the question because evaporative cooling may help lower wet-bulb
zero heights and the models displayed considerable CAPE in the
hail growth region. It will be hot with h85 westerly flow and
temperatures near 21 C. Expect high temperatures again today
around 100. The increased low-level moisture will result in higher
heat index values. Based on the guidance consensus expect heat
indices peaking around 107 and just below the heat advisory
criteria of 110.

Convergence associated with the cold front sinking southward and
into the forecast area plus a possible mid-level shortwave trough
supports thunderstorms tonight but limited moisture may continue
to help keep coverage scattered. Followed the guidance consensus
and forecasted chance pops. Expect moderate instability continuing
well into the night because of the lingering effects of the
strong diurnal heating and possible lift ahead of the mid-level
feature. The instability supports a continued threat of damaging
wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The models displayed the front mainly near the south part of the
forecast area Saturday and Saturday night. Leaned toward the
higher guidance pops because of convergence near the front with
the greater chance in the south section. The NAM indicated
moderate to strong instability with surface-based LIs -5 north to
-8 south Saturday. The instability supports a continued threat of
thunderstorms with damaging wind. Followed the guidance consensus
for the temperature forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The models have upper ridging extending into the forecast area
early in the period with the ridging shifting farther westward by
the middle of the week. There may be weak surface troughing early
with a front stalling near the area late. The models have not
been consistent with the placement of deeper moisture. The GFS and
ECWMF MOS have pops 10 to 40 percent during the period. Expect
temperatures near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected through the middle of the
afternoon.

High pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to
ridge into the area as a cold front remains north of the area.

A 25 to 30 knot low level jet will help keep the boundary layer
mixed and inhibit fog development during the early morning hours.
Southwesterly winds 5 to 10 knots expected overnight. Winds will
increase again after 14Z from the west 10 to 15 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Friday evening due
to scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Diurnal convection expected
through Tuesday with a frontal boundary near the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 240830
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
430 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sinking southward will move into the forecast area
tonight. The front will be stalled near the south part of the
forecast area Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms will be
associated with the front. It will be very hot ahead of the front
today.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An increase in low-level moisture ahead of the cold front with
convergence into a lee-side trough plus strong heating support
thunderstorms today. However, ridging south of the area should
continue to limit moisture. The models also depicted mid-level
shortwave ridging during the time of maximum heating. The NAM and
GFS MOS indicated low pops. The high-resolution models displayed
scattered coverage mainly in the north part closer to greater
moisture and less upper ridging. Forecasted pops of 30 percent
south to 50 percent north. These values were higher than most of
the guidance but appeared reasonable based on expected strong
instability and outflow boundaries from convection north of the
area. The NAM displayed surface-based LIs -7 to -8. The strong
instability with an inverted-v type sounding and dry air in the
mid-levels aiding downdrafts supports possible damaging wind with
the thunderstorms. Hail appears less of a threat but not out of
the question because evaporative cooling may help lower wet-bulb
zero heights and the models displayed considerable CAPE in the
hail growth region. It will be hot with h85 westerly flow and
temperatures near 21 C. Expect high temperatures again today
around 100. The increased low-level moisture will result in higher
heat index values. Based on the guidance consensus expect heat
indices peaking around 107 and just below the heat advisory
criteria of 110.

Convergence associated with the cold front sinking southward and
into the forecast area plus a possible mid-level shortwave trough
supports thunderstorms tonight but limited moisture may continue
to help keep coverage scattered. Followed the guidance consensus
and forecasted chance pops. Expect moderate instability continuing
well into the night because of the lingering effects of the
strong diurnal heating and possible lift ahead of the mid-level
feature. The instability supports a continued threat of damaging
wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The models displayed the front mainly near the south part of the
forecast area Saturday and Saturday night. Leaned toward the
higher guidance pops because of convergence near the front with
the greater chance in the south section. The NAM indicated
moderate to strong instability with surface-based LIs -5 north to
-8 south Saturday. The instability supports a continued threat of
thunderstorms with damaging wind. Followed the guidance consensus
for the temperature forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The models have upper ridging extending into the forecast area
early in the period with the ridging shifting farther westward by
the middle of the week. There may be weak surface troughing early
with a front stalling near the area late. The models have not
been consistent with the placement of deeper moisture. The GFS and
ECWMF MOS have pops 10 to 40 percent during the period. Expect
temperatures near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected through the middle of the
afternoon.

High pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to
ridge into the area as a cold front remains north of the area.

A 25 to 30 knot low level jet will help keep the boundary layer
mixed and inhibit fog development during the early morning hours.
Southwesterly winds 5 to 10 knots expected overnight. Winds will
increase again after 14Z from the west 10 to 15 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Friday evening due
to scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Diurnal convection expected
through Tuesday with a frontal boundary near the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 240821
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
421 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sinking southward will move into the forecast area
tonight. The front will be stalled near the south part of the
forecast area Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms will be
associated with the front. It will be very hot ahead of the front
today.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An increase in low-level moisture ahead of the cold front with
convergence into a lee-side trough plus strong heating support
thunderstorms today. However, ridging south of the area should
continue to limit moisture. The models also depicted mid-level
shortwave ridging during the time of maximum heating. The NAM and
GFS MOS indicated low pops. The high-resolution models displayed
scattered coverage mainly in the north part closer to greater
moisture and less upper ridging. Forecasted pops of 20 percent
south to 50 percent north. These values were higher than most of
the guidance but appeared reasonable based on expected strong
instability and outflow boundaries from convection north of the
area. The NAM displayed surface-based LIs -7 to -8. The strong
instability with an inverted-v type sounding and dry air in the
mid-levels aiding downdrafts supports possible damaging wind with
the thunderstorms. Hail appears less of a threat but not out of
the question because evaporative cooling may help lower wet-bulb
zero heights and the models displayed considerable CAPE in the
hail growth region. It will be hot with h85 westerly flow and
temperatures near 21 C. Expect high temperatures again today
around 100. The increased low-level moisture will result in higher
heat index values. Based on the guidance consensus expect heat
indices peaking around 107 and just below the heat advisory
criteria of 110.

Convergence associated with the cold front sinking southward and
into the forecast area plus a possible mid-level shortwave trough
supports thunderstorms tonight but limited moisture may continue
to help keep coverage scattered. Followed the guidance consensus
and forecasted chance pops. Expect moderate instability continuing
well into the night because of the lingering effects of the
strong diurnal heating and possible lift ahead of the mid-level
feature. The instability supports a continued threat of damaging
wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The models displayed the front mainly near the south part of the
forecast area Saturday and Saturday night. Leaned toward the
higher guidance pops because of convergence near the front with
the greater chance in the south section. The NAM indicated
moderate to strong instability with surface-based LIs -5 north to
-8 south Saturday. The instability supports a continued threat of
thunderstorms with damaging wind. Followed the guidance consensus
for the temperature forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The models have upper ridging extending into the forecast area
early in the period with the ridging shifting farther westward by
the middle of the week. There may be weak surface troughing early
with a front stalling near the area late. The models have not
been consistent with the placement of deeper moisture. The GFS and
ECWMF MOS have pops 10 to 40 percent during the period. Expect
temperatures near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected through the middle of the
afternoon.

High pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to
ridge into the area as a cold front remains north of the area.

A 25 to 30 knot low level jet will help keep the boundary layer
mixed and inhibit fog development during the early morning hours.
Southwesterly winds 5 to 10 knots expected overnight. Winds will
increase again after 14Z from the west 10 to 15 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Friday evening due
to scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Diurnal convection expected
through Tuesday with a frontal boundary near the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 240802
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
402 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front to the north today will approach tonight, stalling
across the region Saturday and dissipating Sunday. Another front
will impact the area beginning on Tuesday and will become nearly
stationary in the vicinity through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today and tonight: The persistent and deep layered ridging of the
past few days finally starts to break down in advance of a long wave
trough and embedded shorts waves over the mid-Atlantic and New
England region. Simultaneously at the surface we still find the sub-
tropical oceanic ridge across Florida, while a backdoor cold front
attempts to drop south across Virginia and into North Carolina by
nightfall, keeping the local forecast district solidly within the
warm sector. The front will gradually make a move toward the area
during tonight.

Compressional heating out ahead of the front and a deep offshore
flow through the vertical will prevail, leading to another day with
temps far above normal. Given that we`re starting out 2-4F higher
than the same time yesterday, and 850 mb temps are expected to reach
19-20C, max temps should climb to the mid and upper 90s for most of
us. There is even an outside chance of 100F across Allendale,
Screven and Jenkins where 850 mb temps might make it to near 21C in
conjunction with the highest theta-e air. Convective debris
clouds from last nights`s convection in closer proximity to the
cold front has spread overhead early this morning, and while we
anticipate that they will thin and shrink in coverage throughout
the day, we might be a tad too hot in regards to our official max
temp forecast if they remain more widespread and/or thicker.

Meanwhile, considerable dry air above the boundary layer suggests
that dew points will mix down into the mid and upper 60s during peak
heating, which even with the above normal temps will limit heat
indices to 102-105F inland. Along the coastal corridor the dewpoints
are expected to pool in the lower and middle 70s in association with
the resultant sea breeze around 2-4 pm for locations from near
Savannah, Hilton Head and Beaufort into parts of Charleston and
eastern Berkeley County. This along with temps in the lower and
middle 90s could support at least pockets of 105-107F heat indices.
But since cirriform clouds could still be prevalent and cutting
down on full insolation and spatial coverage is limited, we will
defer any Heat Advisory to the daytime forecast crew.

Modified soundings show a strong 4-5C cap in place around 6-8K ft,
and this along with the offshore trajectories will limit the amount
of convection this afternoon. At best through about 5 or 6 pm we
don`t see anything more than an isolated showers or t-storm near the
sea breeze boundary in the Charleston Tri-county zones. Further
upstream where there is little to no cap in place and greater
instability in proximity to the cold front to increase convergence
and upward vertical velocities. That along with modest 0-6km shear
of 25-30 kt could support some organized convection that forms
over the South Carolina midlands and the Pee Dee districts. That
activity would then make a run into our northern zones early this
evening, and through parts of the South Carolina counties prior to
midnight, before fading overnight. Since there are discrepancies
on how far south this would be, we have shown nothing more than
scattered Pops for Berkeley, Charleston, Colleton and Dorchester
counties from about 5-6 pm through 1 or 2 am. Slight chance or nil
Pops are currently shown elsewhere, although adjustments could be
required in later forecasts as trends become better defined.

DCAPE is quite impressive (1500 to maybe 2000 J/kg) given the dry
air aloft and the large dew point depressions at the surface. This
supports isolated severe t-storms with damaging winds across mainly
the Charleston Quad-county area around 6-11 pm. We continue to
highlight in the HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday and Saturday night: The pattern aloft will feature a
prominent upper ridge that will be centered across the deep south
and the southern plains, extending northward into the Great Lakes
region. on the east side of the ridge axis, the flow will become
subtly more cyclonic as shortwave energy spills in from the north
and rotates around the upper ridge. At the surface, a cold front
will push in from the north as high pressure builds into the lee of
the Appalachians. The day will be a warm one, with plentiful
insolation leading to high temperatures reaching the mid to upper
90s. A few values of around 100 will be possible for southeast
Georgia too. This surface heating to a good thermodynamic
environment for thunderstorm development, especially when combined
with the support aloft from shortwave energy. Model soundings
generally show an environment with CAPE values around 3000 J/kg,
with DCAPE values as high as 1500 J/kg. Also of note, and further
supportive of high DCAPE, is the 2-3 kft separation between the
freezing level and the wet bulb zero height. Thunderstorms will
likely development across the tri-county region in the early
afternoon and then the best coverage will spread further southward
through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening. Given the
thermodynamics described above there is a decent chance to see a few
strong to severe storms. Another consequence of the approaching
front will be pooling of moisture immediately ahead of it. When
combined with temperatures in the 95-100 degree range, heat index
values could increase into the 105-108 range for a few hours. As
such, a heat advisory may eventually be needed. Overnight, ongoing
convection will diminish through the evening from north to south as
the shortwave progresses southward. Much of the late night will be
dry and lows will quite mild, likely only falling into the upper
70s for many areas.

Sunday through Monday: The overall pattern aloft will not be
terribly interesting as a large ridge encompasses most of the
southern half of the CONUS into early next week. The Saturday front
will push into southeast Georgia and dissipate. For Sunday this will
result in most convective activity taking place south of the
Savannah river where the best convergence and moisture will reside.
By Monday, convective activity looks to hit a lull across the area
as warm mid levels keep the environment capped. Temperatures will be
cooler than on Saturday, but still at or a couple degrees above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The main forecast feature to watch in the long term period will be a
front currently progged to approach the area from the west/northwest
on Tuesday and then become nearly stationary in the vicinity of the
forecast area through Thursday. This set up, especially with the
gradual breakdown of the eastern extent of the upper ridge, will
favor increased diurnal convective activity through the middle of
the week. For now pops are generally advertised in the 40 percent
chance range, but this may increase as the time approaches and
confidence grows in which particular forecast periods could be the
most active. Temperatures will remain nearly steady state featuring
low 90s for highs and mid 70s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS: While we are forecasting VFR conditions through 06z
Saturday, there does remain a low end risk for temporary flight
restrictions if any organized SHRA/TSRA from upstream are able to
move in late today and this evening (22z-03z). For now the
probabilities are too low to even include VCTS.

KSAV: VFR through 06z Saturday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR. Periodic impacts from
thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon/evening, then
again by Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: The synoptic pattern reveals a sub-tropical ridge
stretching east to west across Florida, with a Piedmont trough and
cold front to the north and northwest that slowly approaches with
time. The pressure gradient in between will remain tight and that
along with some enhancement due to the resultant afternoon sea
breeze circulations will generate elevated SW winds as high as
15-20 kt across all waters. Periodic gusts to 25 kt are likely,
especially in Charleston Harbor and across the Charleston County
nearby Atlantic waters. But duration and/or coverage is limited
enough where conditions will stay just below any advisory
thresholds. Seas will average 3-4 ft over the ocean, while waves
build to 1-2 ft in Charleston Harbor.

Tonight: The cold front will eventually slide further south, but
still remains north-northwest of the local waters. The packed
pressure gradient and enhanced low level jetting will keep south and
southwest winds elevated, again as high as 15 or 20 kt. Gusts near
25 kt will occur at times, but not enough to justify raising the SCA
flags. Seas will hold in a steady state, around 3-4 ft, although a
few 5 footers might arrive across AMZ374. Mariners are also alerted
to the potential for scattered showers and t-storms, a few of which
could be strong or even severe early tonight, and mainly on the
Charleston County coastal waters.

Rip Currents: Similar to yesterday a fairly decent afternoon sea
breeze will give a boost to the south and southwest winds,
generating a moderate parallel or longshore current moving toward
the north and northeast. Although the actual rip current risk is
low, we again advise that no one enter the surf that doesn`t know
how to swim.

Saturday through Wednesday: The strongest winds through the
period are expected to occur Saturday through Sunday as a front
pushes southward through the local waters. Perhaps has much as
15-20 kt of flow will be possible on Saturday in the southwest
flow ahead of the boundary, with another period of modest flow on
Sunday out of the northwest behind the southward moving boundary.
For now it does not appear that conditions will warrant any Small
Craft Advisories. Thereafter for the early part of next week,
south to southwest flow will prevail with winds no stronger than
15 knots. Seas will be highest over the weekend, generally 2-4
feet which will then diminish to 1-3 ft for early next week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KFFC 240749
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
349 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016


.SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...
A convective system was sinking southward this morning ahead
of a surface front that was drifting into the TN Valley. This system
should affect north GA this morning and a few thunderstorms were
currently developing over the far northern zones. There has been
a weakening trend for now for that portion headed toward north
GA. The eventual trends of this system are uncertain however chance
or slight chance pops have been included for much of the forecast
area today except for the south central counties. There is the
potential for a few storms to become strong to severe. The surface
front should continue to push southward and stall in the vicinity of
central GA by Saturday morning. Have kept a slight chance of convection
overnight and continued into Saturday. Best chances Saturday should be
from Atlanta to Athens and south.

Heat Index values stay just below advisory criteria today...however
Saturday is showing heat index values of 105 over some areas of central
GA. Will continue to monitor this for a potential heat advisory.


41


.LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...
Weak to moderate upper-level ridging remains in place over the
region to start the extended forecast period. Ridge does not appear
to be strong enough to suppress all convection...especially
considering the proximity of surface boundaries and strong surface
heating. Pattern shifts to northwest upper flow early in the new
work week with continued scattered convection. Convection should
also continue to show a decidedly diurnal bias...however passing
short waves and surface boundaries will keep convective chances from
drying up completely overnight through the period.

High temperatures remain above seasonal normals into early next
week...but should moderate somewhat as the upper ridge retreats west
and is replaced with northwesterly upper flow.


20


&&


AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
Continued overall VFR conditions anticipated for this TAF cycle. Current
convection over TN moving south...but uncertain if it will stay together
long enough to reach the taf sites. Will continue to watch this. For now
no convection indicated in the tafs. Expect scattered cumulus today but
also some mid/high clouds from convective complex. Winds remaining
southwest.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
High on all elements except medium on location and development of
convection.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          96  74  98  73 /  20  30  20  30
Atlanta         94  77  96  75 /  20  20  30  30
Blairsville     89  68  91  69 /  30  30  20  20
Cartersville    94  73  96  72 /  30  20  20  20
Columbus        96  76  97  76 /  20  20  20  30
Gainesville     93  75  95  73 /  30  20  20  20
Macon           98  75  99  73 /  20  20  30  30
Rome            95  73  97  72 /  30  20  20  20
Peachtree City  94  73  96  72 /  20  20  30  30
Vidalia         98  75  98  74 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KFFC 240540
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
135 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...

Concern for the short term is the approaching MCS which is moving
through portions of KY and TN. Forward momentum has definitely
slowed with some dissipation along the leading edge but CAPE
values remain sufficient all the way into North GA to sustain
convection into the first part of the overnight. In
addition...Corfidi vectors indicate continued movement toward the
area although short term hi res guidance indicates a possible
split in activity around GA. Based on radar trends though...will
increase pops slightly across the far northern tier. Remainder of
the grids are in fine shape and no changes are planned.

&&

Deese


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 804 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

Overall, an upper ridge is dominating the forecast area through
the short term, but a deepening upper trough over the eastern U.S.
coast will push a cold front into the area from the northeast on
Friday.

An upper ridge centered over the southern states will continue to
produce hot and dry conditions over a large portion of the CWA
through the end of the week. Have continued with slight chance to
chance pops across far north Georgia tonight, and spread them
southward into northern metro Atlanta Friday as cold front pushes
into the state from the north/northeast as trough aloft deepens.
SPC has included much of north Georgia in a marginal risk for
Friday, with a slight risk area nosing into the northeast portion
of the state (but still outside of the FFC CWA). Given the better
dynamics and instability, anticipate the best coverage and
intensity of storms to be on Friday. Isolated strong to severe
storms are expected, with damaging winds the main concern.

Models are fairly consistent with showing the 850mb temperatures
warming through Friday and into the weekend. The ECMWF appears to
be the warmest and has 850 temperatures in the 20-22 degree C
range through Saturday. As a result, through the short term, have
increased the model blend by a degree or two to account for the
above average conditions. For now, even with the increased
temperatures, the Heat Advisory criteria of a heat index of 105
is approached but not met, and for now will not issue an Advisory
for Friday. That being said, into Saturday, temperatures and
dew points will produce heat index values meeting and/or
exceeding the criteria and an Advisory will likely be necessary.

31

LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
No major changes made to the extended forecast.

01

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 350 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016/

An upper level ridge will be firmly entrenched across the
southern states to start the Long Term but the center will be
drifting W with respect to GA. A weak cold front or surface trough
will be drifting into NE GA Friday night into Saturday. This will
help the potential for showers and thunderstorms Friday night
favoring far E Ga and even more so on Saturday with the heating of
the day. A warm airmass will continue with most high temperatures
in the 90s on Saturday except for the mountains. A few locations
around central Ga will approach 100. Heat indices are looking to
get to 103 to 107 degrees over a large portion of central Ga.

The rest of the long term will see increased chances for showers
and thunderstorms, tending to be diurnally driven with the
heating of the day and a overall moisture increase. A cold front
will approach or move into N GA late Tuesday and likely stall
across the area on Wednesday, continuing shower and thunderstorm
chances across the area with the highest pops favoring central GA.

Temperatures will strongly favor above normal this long term period.

BDL

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
Continued overall VFR conditions anticipated for this TAF cycle. Current
convection over TN moving south...but uncertain if it will stay together
long enough to reach the taf sites. Will continue to watch this. For now
no convection indicated in the tafs. Expect scattered cumulus today but
also some mid/high clouds from convective complex. Winds remaining
southwest.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
High on all elements except medium on location and development of
convection.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  98  74  97 /  20  20  20  40
Atlanta         75  95  77  95 /  20  20  20  40
Blairsville     70  90  68  90 /  50  30  20  40
Cartersville    72  94  71  94 /  20  30  20  40
Columbus        73  97  76  97 /   5  20  20  30
Gainesville     74  93  74  94 /  20  30  20  40
Macon           71  99  74  98 /   5  20  20  40
Rome            72  95  71  95 /  30  30  20  40
Peachtree City  69  95  71  96 /  10  20  20  40
Vidalia         73  98  75  99 /   5  20  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Kovacik
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KCHS 240518
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
118 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain situated between Atlantic high pressure and an
inland trough tonight. A cold front will approach from the north
Friday, push south into the area Saturday, then stall across
Southeast Georgia Sunday. The front will gradually dissipate into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Convective debris cloudiness from upstream convection across North
Carolina in closer proximity to a cold front, will spread
southward but thin out with time as it moves into our northern and
northwest zones overnight. At worst skies will be partly cloudy
along our northwest tier, but generally clear elsewhere. Solid
mixing in the boundary layer with a low level jet of 20-30 kt will
prevent lows from dropping any lower than the lower and middle
70s. The barrier islands of South Carolina will be fortunate to
even dip below 80F with breezy southwest winds up near 20 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday: Subtropical ridging will break down as the area becomes
influences by a northwest flow regime between the retreating ridge
and longwave troughing over New England/Mid-Atlantic states. A
backdoor cold front will gradually work south through Virginia and
approach North Carolina Friday evening keeping all of Southeast
South Carolina and Southeast Georgia well embedded within the warm
sector. Westerly flow head of the front coupled with rising mid-
level temperatures will support highs in the upper 90s for most
areas away from the coast with highs around 100 possibly setting up
in the Metter-Allendale corridor where 850 hPa temperatures are
progged to peak ~21C. Forecast soundings show a potential for deep
mixing with dewpoints mixing out into the mid 60s during peak
heating, which will tend to limit heat indices to the 102-105
range. This is just below the pre-July 1 Heat Advisory criteria.
There are signals that dewpoints could pool into the lower 70s
along parts of the lower South Carolina coast as the delayed
resultant sea breeze moves inland. This could yield about a 1-3
hour period of heat indices >105 degrees roughly in the Hilton
Head-North Charleston- Shulerville corridor. Timing and strength
of the resultant sea breeze circulation will be crucial to how
much dewpoint pooling occurs. Confidence in timing and spatial
distribution of heat indices >105 is just not high at this time to
support a Heat Advisory for any of the lower South Carolina zones.
Lows will range from the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s at the
beaches and downtown Charleston.

Modified soundings show the atmosphere remaining capped in the 800-750
hPa layer despite temperatures rising into the upper 90s/near 100. This
will tend to curtail afternoon/evening convection. Could see an isolated
shower/tstm pop along the Charleston County coast where instability
will be augmented by dewpoints rising into the lower 70s, but activity
looks to remain isolated, if it forms at all. Could also see isolated
to scattered activity form over the Eastern Midlands and Pee Dee
during peak heating where instability will be greater, capping
weaker with some support of weak shortwave energy. Some of this
could make a run for the Charleston Tri-county area by early evening
as shortwave energy passes offshore of the upper South Carolina
coast. Will highlight 20-30% pops to account for this with gridded
pops below mentionable thresholds elsewhere. DCAPE will be quite
high given the expected Temp/Dewpoint spreads throughout the lower
troposphere, so an isolated severe tstm with damaging winds can not
be completely ruled out. However, the greater risk looks to remain
confined to areas closer to the North Carolina border.

Saturday: Another hot day is expected as a cold front slowly meanders
south into the area. Models have trended slightly slower with the
passage of the front, most likely due to the resident hot airmass
that will be in place. Highs will be tempered a bit across north
where convection is expected to fire first near the front itself,
but still expect a hot day with ranging from the mid 90s along/north
of the I-26 corridor with upper 90s/around 100 elsewhere. Unlike
Friday, the mixing potential looks a bit more limited with dewpoints
pooling ahead of the front. Heat indices of 105-108 are likely for
many areas and a Heat Advisory may very well be needed if this trend
holds. Modified soundings yield incredible instability with SBCAPE
reaching 4500-5000 J/kg. Expect scattered showers/tstms to fire mid-
late afternoon as the front moves south, some of which will be
severe. The coverage of severe tstms will be primary driven by
mesoscale boundary interactions in the absence of any meaningful
shear, but the risk for damaging winds will be elevated with DCAPE
running 1400-1700 J/kg. Pops will be capped at 50% for now, but
higher pops could be needed as mesoscale trends become more
apparent. Convection will persist into the evening hours as the
front drops south. Lows will range from the mid-upper 70s with lower
80s at the coast and downtown Charleston.

Sunday: The cold front will gradually dissipate across Southeast
Georgia as subtropical ridging becomes reestablished. Should see
another day of scattered showers/tstms, however with the greater
coverage occurring across interior Southeast Georgia. Pops of 30-40%
look reasonable with highs in the lower-mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
This period will feature temps and dewpoints/humidity typical for
late June. The stationary front will dissipate over or close to the
region early next week, but a surface trough will persist across the
region into late week. Initially, the upper ridge centered west of
the region will expand over the Southeast, then a broad upper trough
will develop over the eastern Conus. This, isolated/scattered mainly
diurnal convection to start the week could give way to a wetter
regime mid to later week as a band of deep layered moisture/PWATs
around 2 inches settles over the region. Thus, forecasts for Tuesday
through Thursday include chance pops for all periods, as high as 40-
50 percent during daylight hours each day. Locally greater pops
could eventually be required, especially around Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS: While we are forecasting VFR conditions through 06z
Saturday, there does remain a low end risk for temporary flight
restrictions if any organized SHRA/TSRA from upstream is able to
move in late Friday into Friday evening (22z-02z). For now the
probabilities are too low to even include VCTS.

KSAV: VFR through 06z Saturday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible in
thunderstorms Friday night through Tuesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Overnight: Elevated winds to persist through the night as the
coastal waters remain sandwiched between Atlantic high pressure
and a Piedmont trough inland. Southwest winds expected to peak in
the 15-20 knot range, with higher gusts at times over the
Charleston County waters. Seas 2-4 feet.

Friday through Tuesday: Ahead of an approaching cold front Friday
into early Saturday, a tight pressure gradient/enhanced low-level
winds will maintain elevated SW winds 15-20 kt with occasional
gusts just short of 25 kt, accompanied by seas as high as 3-5 ft.
As the cold front gradually migrates through the waters Saturday
afternoon into Sunday, a slackening gradient will translate to much
lighter winds and subsiding seas outside any thunderstorms. The cold
front will eventually stall over the Georgia waters Sunday and will
then dissipate early next week. Thus, winds should turn toward the
E/NE at less than 15 kt most areas, although uncertainty regarding
the eventual position of the dissipating stationary front introduced
uncertainty regarding wind direction, especially across GA Waters.
nevertheless, seas will subside to 1-3 ft Sunday into early next
week. Eventually, after the front dissipates winds will veer
through the SE to the S/SW by Monday night or Tuesday between
Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough of low pressure.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 240518
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
118 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain situated between Atlantic high pressure and an
inland trough tonight. A cold front will approach from the north
Friday, push south into the area Saturday, then stall across
Southeast Georgia Sunday. The front will gradually dissipate into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Convective debris cloudiness from upstream convection across North
Carolina in closer proximity to a cold front, will spread
southward but thin out with time as it moves into our northern and
northwest zones overnight. At worst skies will be partly cloudy
along our northwest tier, but generally clear elsewhere. Solid
mixing in the boundary layer with a low level jet of 20-30 kt will
prevent lows from dropping any lower than the lower and middle
70s. The barrier islands of South Carolina will be fortunate to
even dip below 80F with breezy southwest winds up near 20 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday: Subtropical ridging will break down as the area becomes
influences by a northwest flow regime between the retreating ridge
and longwave troughing over New England/Mid-Atlantic states. A
backdoor cold front will gradually work south through Virginia and
approach North Carolina Friday evening keeping all of Southeast
South Carolina and Southeast Georgia well embedded within the warm
sector. Westerly flow head of the front coupled with rising mid-
level temperatures will support highs in the upper 90s for most
areas away from the coast with highs around 100 possibly setting up
in the Metter-Allendale corridor where 850 hPa temperatures are
progged to peak ~21C. Forecast soundings show a potential for deep
mixing with dewpoints mixing out into the mid 60s during peak
heating, which will tend to limit heat indices to the 102-105
range. This is just below the pre-July 1 Heat Advisory criteria.
There are signals that dewpoints could pool into the lower 70s
along parts of the lower South Carolina coast as the delayed
resultant sea breeze moves inland. This could yield about a 1-3
hour period of heat indices >105 degrees roughly in the Hilton
Head-North Charleston- Shulerville corridor. Timing and strength
of the resultant sea breeze circulation will be crucial to how
much dewpoint pooling occurs. Confidence in timing and spatial
distribution of heat indices >105 is just not high at this time to
support a Heat Advisory for any of the lower South Carolina zones.
Lows will range from the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s at the
beaches and downtown Charleston.

Modified soundings show the atmosphere remaining capped in the 800-750
hPa layer despite temperatures rising into the upper 90s/near 100. This
will tend to curtail afternoon/evening convection. Could see an isolated
shower/tstm pop along the Charleston County coast where instability
will be augmented by dewpoints rising into the lower 70s, but activity
looks to remain isolated, if it forms at all. Could also see isolated
to scattered activity form over the Eastern Midlands and Pee Dee
during peak heating where instability will be greater, capping
weaker with some support of weak shortwave energy. Some of this
could make a run for the Charleston Tri-county area by early evening
as shortwave energy passes offshore of the upper South Carolina
coast. Will highlight 20-30% pops to account for this with gridded
pops below mentionable thresholds elsewhere. DCAPE will be quite
high given the expected Temp/Dewpoint spreads throughout the lower
troposphere, so an isolated severe tstm with damaging winds can not
be completely ruled out. However, the greater risk looks to remain
confined to areas closer to the North Carolina border.

Saturday: Another hot day is expected as a cold front slowly meanders
south into the area. Models have trended slightly slower with the
passage of the front, most likely due to the resident hot airmass
that will be in place. Highs will be tempered a bit across north
where convection is expected to fire first near the front itself,
but still expect a hot day with ranging from the mid 90s along/north
of the I-26 corridor with upper 90s/around 100 elsewhere. Unlike
Friday, the mixing potential looks a bit more limited with dewpoints
pooling ahead of the front. Heat indices of 105-108 are likely for
many areas and a Heat Advisory may very well be needed if this trend
holds. Modified soundings yield incredible instability with SBCAPE
reaching 4500-5000 J/kg. Expect scattered showers/tstms to fire mid-
late afternoon as the front moves south, some of which will be
severe. The coverage of severe tstms will be primary driven by
mesoscale boundary interactions in the absence of any meaningful
shear, but the risk for damaging winds will be elevated with DCAPE
running 1400-1700 J/kg. Pops will be capped at 50% for now, but
higher pops could be needed as mesoscale trends become more
apparent. Convection will persist into the evening hours as the
front drops south. Lows will range from the mid-upper 70s with lower
80s at the coast and downtown Charleston.

Sunday: The cold front will gradually dissipate across Southeast
Georgia as subtropical ridging becomes reestablished. Should see
another day of scattered showers/tstms, however with the greater
coverage occurring across interior Southeast Georgia. Pops of 30-40%
look reasonable with highs in the lower-mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
This period will feature temps and dewpoints/humidity typical for
late June. The stationary front will dissipate over or close to the
region early next week, but a surface trough will persist across the
region into late week. Initially, the upper ridge centered west of
the region will expand over the Southeast, then a broad upper trough
will develop over the eastern Conus. This, isolated/scattered mainly
diurnal convection to start the week could give way to a wetter
regime mid to later week as a band of deep layered moisture/PWATs
around 2 inches settles over the region. Thus, forecasts for Tuesday
through Thursday include chance pops for all periods, as high as 40-
50 percent during daylight hours each day. Locally greater pops
could eventually be required, especially around Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS: While we are forecasting VFR conditions through 06z
Saturday, there does remain a low end risk for temporary flight
restrictions if any organized SHRA/TSRA from upstream is able to
move in late Friday into Friday evening (22z-02z). For now the
probabilities are too low to even include VCTS.

KSAV: VFR through 06z Saturday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible in
thunderstorms Friday night through Tuesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Overnight: Elevated winds to persist through the night as the
coastal waters remain sandwiched between Atlantic high pressure
and a Piedmont trough inland. Southwest winds expected to peak in
the 15-20 knot range, with higher gusts at times over the
Charleston County waters. Seas 2-4 feet.

Friday through Tuesday: Ahead of an approaching cold front Friday
into early Saturday, a tight pressure gradient/enhanced low-level
winds will maintain elevated SW winds 15-20 kt with occasional
gusts just short of 25 kt, accompanied by seas as high as 3-5 ft.
As the cold front gradually migrates through the waters Saturday
afternoon into Sunday, a slackening gradient will translate to much
lighter winds and subsiding seas outside any thunderstorms. The cold
front will eventually stall over the Georgia waters Sunday and will
then dissipate early next week. Thus, winds should turn toward the
E/NE at less than 15 kt most areas, although uncertainty regarding
the eventual position of the dissipating stationary front introduced
uncertainty regarding wind direction, especially across GA Waters.
nevertheless, seas will subside to 1-3 ft Sunday into early next
week. Eventually, after the front dissipates winds will veer
through the SE to the S/SW by Monday night or Tuesday between
Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough of low pressure.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 240434
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1234 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain situated between Atlantic high pressure and an
inland trough tonight. A cold front will approach from the north
Friday, push south into the area Saturday, then stall across
Southeast Georgia Sunday. The front will gradually dissipate into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Convective debris cloudiness from upstream convection across North
Carolina in closer proximity to a cold front, will spread
southward but thin out with time as it moves into our northern and
northwest zones overnight. At worst skies will be partly cloudy
along our northwest tier, but generally clear elsewhere. Solid
mixing in the boundary layer with a low level jet of 20-30 kt will
prevent lows from dropping any lower than the lower and middle
70s. The barrier islands of South Carolina will be fortunate to
even dip below 80F with breezy southwest winds up near 20 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday: Subtropical ridging will break down as the area becomes
influences by a northwest flow regime between the retreating ridge
and longwave troughing over New England/Mid-Atlantic states. A
backdoor cold front will gradually work south through Virginia and
approach North Carolina Friday evening keeping all of Southeast
South Carolina and Southeast Georgia well embedded within the warm
sector. Westerly flow head of the front coupled with rising mid-
level temperatures will support highs in the upper 90s for most
areas away from the coast with highs around 100 possibly setting up
in the Metter-Allendale corridor where 850 hPa temperatures are
progged to peak ~21C. Forecast soundings show a potential for deep
mixing with dewpoints mixing out into the mid 60s during peak
heating, which will tend to limit heat indices to the 102-105
range. This is just below the pre-July 1 Heat Advisory criteria.
There are signals that dewpoints could pool into the lower 70s
along parts of the lower South Carolina coast as the delayed
resultant sea breeze moves inland. This could yield about a 1-3
hour period of heat indices >105 degrees roughly in the Hilton
Head-North Charleston- Shulerville corridor. Timing and strength
of the resultant sea breeze circulation will be crucial to how
much dewpoint pooling occurs. Confidence in timing and spatial
distribution of heat indices >105 is just not high at this time to
support a Heat Advisory for any of the lower South Carolina zones.
Lows will range from the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s at the
beaches and downtown Charleston.

Modified soundings show the atmosphere remaining capped in the 800-750
hPa layer despite temperatures rising into the upper 90s/near 100. This
will tend to curtail afternoon/evening convection. Could see an isolated
shower/tstm pop along the Charleston County coast where instability
will be augmented by dewpoints rising into the lower 70s, but activity
looks to remain isolated, if it forms at all. Could also see isolated
to scattered activity form over the Eastern Midlands and Pee Dee
during peak heating where instability will be greater, capping
weaker with some support of weak shortwave energy. Some of this
could make a run for the Charleston Tri-county area by early evening
as shortwave energy passes offshore of the upper South Carolina
coast. Will highlight 20-30% pops to account for this with gridded
pops below mentionable thresholds elsewhere. DCAPE will be quite
high given the expected Temp/Dewpoint spreads throughout the lower
troposphere, so an isolated severe tstm with damaging winds can not
be completely ruled out. However, the greater risk looks to remain
confined to areas closer to the North Carolina border.

Saturday: Another hot day is expected as a cold front slowly meanders
south into the area. Models have trended slightly slower with the
passage of the front, most likely due to the resident hot airmass
that will be in place. Highs will be tempered a bit across north
where convection is expected to fire first near the front itself,
but still expect a hot day with ranging from the mid 90s along/north
of the I-26 corridor with upper 90s/around 100 elsewhere. Unlike
Friday, the mixing potential looks a bit more limited with dewpoints
pooling ahead of the front. Heat indices of 105-108 are likely for
many areas and a Heat Advisory may very well be needed if this trend
holds. Modified soundings yield incredible instability with SBCAPE
reaching 4500-5000 J/kg. Expect scattered showers/tstms to fire mid-
late afternoon as the front moves south, some of which will be
severe. The coverage of severe tstms will be primary driven by
mesoscale boundary interactions in the absence of any meaningful
shear, but the risk for damaging winds will be elevated with DCAPE
running 1400-1700 J/kg. Pops will be capped at 50% for now, but
higher pops could be needed as mesoscale trends become more
apparent. Convection will persist into the evening hours as the
front drops south. Lows will range from the mid-upper 70s with lower
80s at the coast and downtown Charleston.

Sunday: The cold front will gradually dissipate across Southeast
Georgia as subtropical ridging becomes reestablished. Should see
another day of scattered showers/tstms, however with the greater
coverage occurring across interior Southeast Georgia. Pops of 30-40%
look reasonable with highs in the lower-mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
This period will feature temps and dewpoints/humidity typical for
late June. The stationary front will dissipate over or close to the
region early next week, but a surface trough will persist across the
region into late week. Initially, the upper ridge centered west of
the region will expand over the Southeast, then a broad upper trough
will develop over the eastern Conus. This, isolated/scattered mainly
diurnal convection to start the week could give way to a wetter
regime mid to later week as a band of deep layered moisture/PWATs
around 2 inches settles over the region. Thus, forecasts for Tuesday
through Thursday include chance pops for all periods, as high as 40-
50 percent during daylight hours each day. Locally greater pops
could eventually be required, especially around Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR through 00Z Saturday. At KCHS, the risk of VCTS late in the
afternoon on Friday remains quite low at this juncture.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible in
thunderstorms Friday night through Tuesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Overnight: Elevated winds to persist through the night as the
coastal waters remain sandwiched between Atlantic high pressure
and a Piedmont trough inland. Southwest winds expected to peak in
the 15-20 knot range, with higher gusts at times over the
Charleston County waters. Seas 2-4 feet.

Friday through Tuesday: Ahead of an approaching cold front Friday
into early Saturday, a tight pressure gradient/enhanced low-level
winds will maintain elevated SW winds 15-20 kt with occasional
gusts just short of 25 kt, accompanied by seas as high as 3-5 ft.
As the cold front gradually migrates through the waters Saturday
afternoon into Sunday, a slackening gradient will translate to much
lighter winds and subsiding seas outside any thunderstorms. The cold
front will eventually stall over the Georgia waters Sunday and will
then dissipate early next week. Thus, winds should turn toward the
E/NE at less than 15 kt most areas, although uncertainty regarding
the eventual position of the dissipating stationary front introduced
uncertainty regarding wind direction, especially across GA Waters.
nevertheless, seas will subside to 1-3 ft Sunday into early next
week. Eventually, after the front dissipates winds will veer
through the SE to the S/SW by Monday night or Tuesday between
Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough of low pressure.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 240434
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1234 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain situated between Atlantic high pressure and an
inland trough tonight. A cold front will approach from the north
Friday, push south into the area Saturday, then stall across
Southeast Georgia Sunday. The front will gradually dissipate into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Convective debris cloudiness from upstream convection across North
Carolina in closer proximity to a cold front, will spread
southward but thin out with time as it moves into our northern and
northwest zones overnight. At worst skies will be partly cloudy
along our northwest tier, but generally clear elsewhere. Solid
mixing in the boundary layer with a low level jet of 20-30 kt will
prevent lows from dropping any lower than the lower and middle
70s. The barrier islands of South Carolina will be fortunate to
even dip below 80F with breezy southwest winds up near 20 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday: Subtropical ridging will break down as the area becomes
influences by a northwest flow regime between the retreating ridge
and longwave troughing over New England/Mid-Atlantic states. A
backdoor cold front will gradually work south through Virginia and
approach North Carolina Friday evening keeping all of Southeast
South Carolina and Southeast Georgia well embedded within the warm
sector. Westerly flow head of the front coupled with rising mid-
level temperatures will support highs in the upper 90s for most
areas away from the coast with highs around 100 possibly setting up
in the Metter-Allendale corridor where 850 hPa temperatures are
progged to peak ~21C. Forecast soundings show a potential for deep
mixing with dewpoints mixing out into the mid 60s during peak
heating, which will tend to limit heat indices to the 102-105
range. This is just below the pre-July 1 Heat Advisory criteria.
There are signals that dewpoints could pool into the lower 70s
along parts of the lower South Carolina coast as the delayed
resultant sea breeze moves inland. This could yield about a 1-3
hour period of heat indices >105 degrees roughly in the Hilton
Head-North Charleston- Shulerville corridor. Timing and strength
of the resultant sea breeze circulation will be crucial to how
much dewpoint pooling occurs. Confidence in timing and spatial
distribution of heat indices >105 is just not high at this time to
support a Heat Advisory for any of the lower South Carolina zones.
Lows will range from the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s at the
beaches and downtown Charleston.

Modified soundings show the atmosphere remaining capped in the 800-750
hPa layer despite temperatures rising into the upper 90s/near 100. This
will tend to curtail afternoon/evening convection. Could see an isolated
shower/tstm pop along the Charleston County coast where instability
will be augmented by dewpoints rising into the lower 70s, but activity
looks to remain isolated, if it forms at all. Could also see isolated
to scattered activity form over the Eastern Midlands and Pee Dee
during peak heating where instability will be greater, capping
weaker with some support of weak shortwave energy. Some of this
could make a run for the Charleston Tri-county area by early evening
as shortwave energy passes offshore of the upper South Carolina
coast. Will highlight 20-30% pops to account for this with gridded
pops below mentionable thresholds elsewhere. DCAPE will be quite
high given the expected Temp/Dewpoint spreads throughout the lower
troposphere, so an isolated severe tstm with damaging winds can not
be completely ruled out. However, the greater risk looks to remain
confined to areas closer to the North Carolina border.

Saturday: Another hot day is expected as a cold front slowly meanders
south into the area. Models have trended slightly slower with the
passage of the front, most likely due to the resident hot airmass
that will be in place. Highs will be tempered a bit across north
where convection is expected to fire first near the front itself,
but still expect a hot day with ranging from the mid 90s along/north
of the I-26 corridor with upper 90s/around 100 elsewhere. Unlike
Friday, the mixing potential looks a bit more limited with dewpoints
pooling ahead of the front. Heat indices of 105-108 are likely for
many areas and a Heat Advisory may very well be needed if this trend
holds. Modified soundings yield incredible instability with SBCAPE
reaching 4500-5000 J/kg. Expect scattered showers/tstms to fire mid-
late afternoon as the front moves south, some of which will be
severe. The coverage of severe tstms will be primary driven by
mesoscale boundary interactions in the absence of any meaningful
shear, but the risk for damaging winds will be elevated with DCAPE
running 1400-1700 J/kg. Pops will be capped at 50% for now, but
higher pops could be needed as mesoscale trends become more
apparent. Convection will persist into the evening hours as the
front drops south. Lows will range from the mid-upper 70s with lower
80s at the coast and downtown Charleston.

Sunday: The cold front will gradually dissipate across Southeast
Georgia as subtropical ridging becomes reestablished. Should see
another day of scattered showers/tstms, however with the greater
coverage occurring across interior Southeast Georgia. Pops of 30-40%
look reasonable with highs in the lower-mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
This period will feature temps and dewpoints/humidity typical for
late June. The stationary front will dissipate over or close to the
region early next week, but a surface trough will persist across the
region into late week. Initially, the upper ridge centered west of
the region will expand over the Southeast, then a broad upper trough
will develop over the eastern Conus. This, isolated/scattered mainly
diurnal convection to start the week could give way to a wetter
regime mid to later week as a band of deep layered moisture/PWATs
around 2 inches settles over the region. Thus, forecasts for Tuesday
through Thursday include chance pops for all periods, as high as 40-
50 percent during daylight hours each day. Locally greater pops
could eventually be required, especially around Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR through 00Z Saturday. At KCHS, the risk of VCTS late in the
afternoon on Friday remains quite low at this juncture.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible in
thunderstorms Friday night through Tuesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Overnight: Elevated winds to persist through the night as the
coastal waters remain sandwiched between Atlantic high pressure
and a Piedmont trough inland. Southwest winds expected to peak in
the 15-20 knot range, with higher gusts at times over the
Charleston County waters. Seas 2-4 feet.

Friday through Tuesday: Ahead of an approaching cold front Friday
into early Saturday, a tight pressure gradient/enhanced low-level
winds will maintain elevated SW winds 15-20 kt with occasional
gusts just short of 25 kt, accompanied by seas as high as 3-5 ft.
As the cold front gradually migrates through the waters Saturday
afternoon into Sunday, a slackening gradient will translate to much
lighter winds and subsiding seas outside any thunderstorms. The cold
front will eventually stall over the Georgia waters Sunday and will
then dissipate early next week. Thus, winds should turn toward the
E/NE at less than 15 kt most areas, although uncertainty regarding
the eventual position of the dissipating stationary front introduced
uncertainty regarding wind direction, especially across GA Waters.
nevertheless, seas will subside to 1-3 ft Sunday into early next
week. Eventually, after the front dissipates winds will veer
through the SE to the S/SW by Monday night or Tuesday between
Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough of low pressure.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 240337
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1137 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front extending from Northern Virginia to Northern Kentucky
will push south into North Carolina Friday then move into the
Midlands Friday night. The front will remain near the area during
the rest of the weekend. It will be hot ahead of the front Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Debris clouds from upstream convection pushing southward into
South Carolina. Isolated convection possible across the extreme
northern midlands along the NC/SC border. Otherwise, dry
conditions for the area.

Convection across NC should wane during the overnight hours with
the loss of heating and stabilization of the atmosphere. Bufkit
time heights show a 25-30 knot low-level jet overnight which will
help keep the boundary layer mixed and overnight lows from falling
too fast. This will once again keep winds up across the area and
especially over the warm lakes. The past couple of nights, winds
have ranged from 10 to 20 mph on area lakes. Overnight lows
expected in the mid to upper 70s after a very warm afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Front will continue sliding southward Friday with temperatures
once again rising to around triple digits. Although the front will
be ill defined instability will be high with LIs around -7 and
CAPE nearing 2000 J/Kg. Freezing level and WBZ heights will be 15
kft and 13 kft respectively and with hot temperatures hail threat
will be lowered, however with some dry air remaining in the mid
levels the potential for damaging wind gusts exists through the
afternoon and into the overnight hours. Friday night the front
will continue slowly moving southward and is expected to be over
the southern Midlands and CSRA by daybreak Saturday. Instability
will remain high on Saturday as well with the potential for
damaging winds continuing, however the focus will shift to the
southern Midlands and CSRA along the front. Temperatures Friday
will be around 100 and lower to middle 90s Saturday. Overnight
lows will be in the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models are in good agreement with some differences in intensity
with the next front moving through the area late Monday into
Tuesday. Frontal boundary will continue sagging south of the
forecast area Sunday with low pressure pushing a cold front from
the Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley Monday. The front will
move into the area late Monday into Monday night and through the
area Tuesday. The GFS remains more progressive with this feature
than the ECMWF which slows the frontal passage with the front
lingering through Wednesday. With lower than desired confidence
for late Tuesday onward only minor adjustments have been made to
the forecast. Temperatures through the long term will be near to
slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the middle of the afternoon Friday.

High pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to
ridge into the area overnight as a cold front remains north of the
area. Convection is expected to remain north of the terminals
tonight. Debris clouds from upstream convection will over spread the
area with mid and high level clouds.

A developing 25 to 30 knot low level jet is forecast will help keep
the boundary layer mixed and inhibit fog development overnight.
Southwesterly winds 5 to 10 knots expected overnight. Winds will
increase again after 14Z from the west 10 to 15 knots. Convection
is expected to develop Friday afternoon but should not initiate
until after 21z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Friday evening due
to scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Diurnal convection expected
through Tuesday with a frontal boundary near the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 240242
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1042 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front extending from Northern Virginia to Northern Kentucky
will push south into North Carolina Friday then move into the
Midlands Friday night. The front will remain near the area during
the rest of the weekend. It will be hot ahead of the front today
and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Debris clouds from upstream convection pushing southward into
South Carolina. Isolated convection possible across the extreme
northern midlands along the NC/SC border. Otherwise, dry
conditions for the area.

Convection across NC should wane during the overnight hours with
the loss of heating and stabilization of the atmosphere. Bufkit
time heights show a 25-30 knot low level jet overnight which will
help keep the boundary layer mixed and overnight lows from falling
too fast. This will once again keep winds up across the area and
especially over the warm lakes. The past couple of nights...winds
have ranged from 10 to 20 mph on area lakes. Overnight lows
expected in the mid to upper 70s after a very warm afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Front will continue sliding southward on Friday with temperatures
once again rising to around triple digits. Although the front will
be ill defined instability will be high with LIs around -7 and
CAPE nearing 2000 J/Kg. Freezing level and WBZ heights will be 15
kft and 13 kft respectively and with hot temperatures hail threat
will be lowered...however with some dry air remaining in the mid
levels the potential for damaging wind gusts exists through the
afternoon and into the overnight hours. Friday night the front
will continue slowly moving southward and is expected to be over
the southern Midlands and CSRA by daybreak Saturday. Instability
will remain high on Saturday as well with the potential for
damaging winds continuing...however the focus will shift to the
southern Midlands and CSRA along the front. Temperatures on Friday
will be in the upper 90s to low 100s and lower to middle 90s on
Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models are in good agreement with some differences in intensity
with the next front moving through the area late Monday into
Tuesday. Frontal boundary will continue sagging south of the
forecast area on Sunday with low pressure pushing a cold front
from the Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley on Monday. The front
will move into the area late Monday into Monday night and through
the area Tuesday. The GFS remains more progressive with this
feature than the ECMWF which slows the frontal passage with the
front lingering through Wednesday. With lower than desired
confidence for late Tuesday onward only minor adjustments have
been made to the forecast. Temperatures through the long term will
be near to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the middle of the afternoon Friday.

High pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to
ridge into the area overnight as a cold front remains north of the
area. Convection is expected to remain north of the terminals
tonight. Debris clouds from upstream convection will over spread the
area with mid and high level clouds.

A developing 25 to 30 knot low level jet is forecast will help keep
the boundary layer mixed and inhibit fog development overnight.
Southwesterly winds 5 to 10 knots expected overnight. Winds will
increase again after 14Z from the west 10 to 15 knots. Convection
is expected to develop Friday afternoon but should not initiate
until after 21z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Friday evening due
to scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Diurnal convection expected
through Tuesday with a frontal boundary near the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 240242
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1042 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front extending from Northern Virginia to Northern Kentucky
will push south into North Carolina Friday then move into the
Midlands Friday night. The front will remain near the area during
the rest of the weekend. It will be hot ahead of the front today
and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Debris clouds from upstream convection pushing southward into
South Carolina. Isolated convection possible across the extreme
northern midlands along the NC/SC border. Otherwise, dry
conditions for the area.

Convection across NC should wane during the overnight hours with
the loss of heating and stabilization of the atmosphere. Bufkit
time heights show a 25-30 knot low level jet overnight which will
help keep the boundary layer mixed and overnight lows from falling
too fast. This will once again keep winds up across the area and
especially over the warm lakes. The past couple of nights...winds
have ranged from 10 to 20 mph on area lakes. Overnight lows
expected in the mid to upper 70s after a very warm afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Front will continue sliding southward on Friday with temperatures
once again rising to around triple digits. Although the front will
be ill defined instability will be high with LIs around -7 and
CAPE nearing 2000 J/Kg. Freezing level and WBZ heights will be 15
kft and 13 kft respectively and with hot temperatures hail threat
will be lowered...however with some dry air remaining in the mid
levels the potential for damaging wind gusts exists through the
afternoon and into the overnight hours. Friday night the front
will continue slowly moving southward and is expected to be over
the southern Midlands and CSRA by daybreak Saturday. Instability
will remain high on Saturday as well with the potential for
damaging winds continuing...however the focus will shift to the
southern Midlands and CSRA along the front. Temperatures on Friday
will be in the upper 90s to low 100s and lower to middle 90s on
Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models are in good agreement with some differences in intensity
with the next front moving through the area late Monday into
Tuesday. Frontal boundary will continue sagging south of the
forecast area on Sunday with low pressure pushing a cold front
from the Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley on Monday. The front
will move into the area late Monday into Monday night and through
the area Tuesday. The GFS remains more progressive with this
feature than the ECMWF which slows the frontal passage with the
front lingering through Wednesday. With lower than desired
confidence for late Tuesday onward only minor adjustments have
been made to the forecast. Temperatures through the long term will
be near to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the middle of the afternoon Friday.

High pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to
ridge into the area overnight as a cold front remains north of the
area. Convection is expected to remain north of the terminals
tonight. Debris clouds from upstream convection will over spread the
area with mid and high level clouds.

A developing 25 to 30 knot low level jet is forecast will help keep
the boundary layer mixed and inhibit fog development overnight.
Southwesterly winds 5 to 10 knots expected overnight. Winds will
increase again after 14Z from the west 10 to 15 knots. Convection
is expected to develop Friday afternoon but should not initiate
until after 21z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Friday evening due
to scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Diurnal convection expected
through Tuesday with a frontal boundary near the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 240231
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1031 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.UPDATE...

Concern for the short term is the approaching MCS which is moving
through portions of KY and TN. Forward momentum has definitely
slowed with some dissipation along the leading edge but CAPE
values remain sufficient all the way into North GA to sustain
convection into the first part of the overnight. In
addition...Corfidi vectors indicate continued movement toward the
area although short term hi res guidance indicates a possible
split in activity around GA. Based on radar trends though...will
increase pops slightly across the far northern tier. Remainder of
the grids are in fine shape and no changes are planned.

&&

Deese


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 804 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

Overall, an upper ridge is dominating the forecast area through
the short term, but a deepening upper trough over the eastern U.S.
coast will push a cold front into the area from the northeast on
Friday.

An upper ridge centered over the southern states will continue to
produce hot and dry conditions over a large portion of the CWA
through the end of the week. Have continued with slight chance to
chance pops across far north Georgia tonight, and spread them
southward into northern metro Atlanta Friday as cold front pushes
into the state from the north/northeast as trough aloft deepens.
SPC has included much of north Georgia in a marginal risk for
Friday, with a slight risk area nosing into the northeast portion
of the state (but still outside of the FFC CWA). Given the better
dynamics and instability, anticipate the best coverage and
intensity of storms to be on Friday. Isolated strong to severe
storms are expected, with damaging winds the main concern.

Models are fairly consistent with showing the 850mb temperatures
warming through Friday and into the weekend. The ECMWF appears to
be the warmest and has 850 temperatures in the 20-22 degree C
range through Saturday. As a result, through the short term, have
increased the model blend by a degree or two to account for the
above average conditions. For now, even with the increased
temperatures, the Heat Advisory criteria of a heat index of 105
is approached but not met, and for now will not issue an Advisory
for Friday. That being said, into Saturday, temperatures and
dew points will produce heat index values meeting and/or
exceeding the criteria and an Advisory will likely be necessary.

31

LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
No major changes made to the extended forecast.

01

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 350 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016/

An upper level ridge will be firmly entrenched across the
southern states to start the Long Term but the center will be
drifting W with respect to GA. A weak cold front or surface trough
will be drifting into NE GA Friday night into Saturday. This will
help the potential for showers and thunderstorms Friday night
favoring far E Ga and even more so on Saturday with the heating of
the day. A warm airmass will continue with most high temperatures
in the 90s on Saturday except for the mountains. A few locations
around central Ga will approach 100. Heat indices are looking to
get to 103 to 107 degrees over a large portion of central Ga.

The rest of the long term will see increased chances for showers
and thunderstorms, tending to be diurnally driven with the
heating of the day and a overall moisture increase. A cold front
will approach or move into N GA late Tuesday and likely stall
across the area on Wednesday, continuing shower and thunderstorm
chances across the area with the highest pops favoring central GA.

Temperatures will strongly favor above normal this long term period.

BDL

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
Continued VFR conditions anticipated for this TAF cycle. Current
line of TSRA over Kentucky moving into TN will stay north of the
terminals and will leave out of this set. Just re-development of
SCT cu expected for Fri.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
High on all elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  98  74  97 /  20  20  20  40
Atlanta         75  95  77  95 /  20  20  20  40
Blairsville     70  90  68  90 /  50  30  20  40
Cartersville    72  94  71  94 /  20  30  20  40
Columbus        73  97  76  97 /   5  20  20  30
Gainesville     74  93  74  94 /  20  30  20  40
Macon           71  99  74  98 /   5  20  20  40
Rome            72  95  71  95 /  30  30  20  40
Peachtree City  69  95  71  96 /  10  20  20  40
Vidalia         73  98  75  99 /   5  20  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....Kovacik
AVIATION...Deese




000
FXUS62 KCHS 240127
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
927 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain situated between Atlantic high pressure and an
inland trough tonight. A cold front will approach from the north
Friday, push south into the area Saturday, then stall across
Southeast Georgia Sunday. The front will gradually dissipate into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Upper air soundings reveal a warm, dry, and capped environment
aloft over the region this evening as ridging remains in place.
Clear skies will prevail overnight with a few mid level level
clouds and/or high clouds possible late. No significant changes to
our temp scheme with low temperatures mainly in the low to mid 70s
while a light sw breeze keeps the lower levels rather mixed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday: Subtropical ridging will break down as the area becomes
influences by a northwest flow regime between the retreating ridge
and longwave troughing over New England/Mid-Atlantic states. A
backdoor cold front will gradually work south through Virginia and
approach North Carolina Friday evening keeping all of Southeast
South Carolina and Southeast Georgia well embedded within the warm
sector. Westerly flow head of the front coupled with rising mid-
level temperatures will support highs in the upper 90s for most
areas away from the coast with highs around 100 possibly setting up
in the Metter-Allendale corridor where 850 hPa temperatures are
progged to peak ~21C. Forecast soundings show a potential for deep
mixing with dewpoints mixing out into the mid 60s during peak
heating, which will tend to limit heat indices to the 102-105
range. This is just below the pre-July 1 Heat Advisory criteria.
There are signals that dewpoints could pool into the lower 70s
along parts of the lower South Carolina coast as the delayed
resultant sea breeze moves inland. This could yield about a 1-3
hour period of heat indices >105 degrees roughly in the Hilton
Head-North Charleston- Shulerville corridor. Timing and strength
of the resultant sea breeze circulation will be crucial to how
much dewpoint pooling occurs. Confidence in timing and spatial
distribution of heat indices >105 is just not high at this time to
support a Heat Advisory for any of the lower South Carolina zones.
Lows will range from the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s at the
beaches and downtown Charleston.

Modified soundings show the atmosphere remaining capped in the 800-750
hPa layer despite temperatures rising into the upper 90s/near 100. This
will tend to curtail afternoon/evening convection. Could see an isolated
shower/tstm pop along the Charleston County coast where instability
will be augmented by dewpoints rising into the lower 70s, but activity
looks to remain isolated, if it forms at all. Could also see isolated
to scattered activity form over the Eastern Midlands and Pee Dee
during peak heating where instability will be greater, capping
weaker with some support of weak shortwave energy. Some of this
could make a run for the Charleston Tri-county area by early evening
as shortwave energy passes offshore of the upper South Carolina
coast. Will highlight 20-30% pops to account for this with gridded
pops below mentionable thresholds elsewhere. DCAPE will be quite
high given the expected Temp/Dewpoint spreads throughout the lower
troposphere, so an isolated severe tstm with damaging winds can not
be completely ruled out. However, the greater risk looks to remain
confined to areas closer to the North Carolina border.

Saturday: Another hot day is expected as a cold front slowly meanders
south into the area. Models have trended slightly slower with the
passage of the front, most likely due to the resident hot airmass
that will be in place. Highs will be tempered a bit across north
where convection is expected to fire first near the front itself,
but still expect a hot day with ranging from the mid 90s along/north
of the I-26 corridor with upper 90s/around 100 elsewhere. Unlike
Friday, the mixing potential looks a bit more limited with dewpoints
pooling ahead of the front. Heat indices of 105-108 are likely for
many areas and a Heat Advisory may very well be needed if this trend
holds. Modified soundings yield incredible instability with SBCAPE
reaching 4500-5000 J/kg. Expect scattered showers/tstms to fire mid-
late afternoon as the front moves south, some of which will be
severe. The coverage of severe tstms will be primary driven by
mesoscale boundary interactions in the absence of any meaningful
shear, but the risk for damaging winds will be elevated with DCAPE
running 1400-1700 J/kg. Pops will be capped at 50% for now, but
higher pops could be needed as mesoscale trends become more
apparent. Convection will persist into the evening hours as the
front drops south. Lows will range from the mid-upper 70s with lower
80s at the coast and downtown Charleston.

Sunday: The cold front will gradually dissipate across Southeast
Georgia as subtropical ridging becomes reestablished. Should see
another day of scattered showers/tstms, however with the greater
coverage occurring across interior Southeast Georgia. Pops of 30-40%
look reasonable with highs in the lower-mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
This period will feature temps and dewpoints/humidity typical for
late June. The stationary front will dissipate over or close to the
region early next week, but a surface trough will persist across the
region into late week. Initially, the upper ridge centered west of
the region will expand over the Southeast, then a broad upper trough
will develop over the eastern Conus. This, isolated/scattered mainly
diurnal convection to start the week could give way to a wetter
regime mid to later week as a band of deep layered moisture/PWATs
around 2 inches settles over the region. Thus, forecasts for Tuesday
through Thursday include chance pops for all periods, as high as 40-
50 percent during daylight hours each day. Locally greater pops
could eventually be required, especially around Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR through 00Z Saturday. At KCHS, the risk of VCTS late in the
afternoon on Friday remains quite low at this juncture.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible in
thunderstorms Friday night through Tuesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Overnight: Elevated winds to persist through the night as the
coastal waters remain sandwiched between Atlantic high pressure
and a piedmont trough inland. Southwest winds expected to peak in
the 15-20 knot range. Seas 2-4 feet.

Friday through Tuesday: Ahead of an approaching cold front Friday
into early Saturday, a tight pressure gradient/enhanced low-level
winds will maintain elevated SW winds 15-20 kt with occasional
gusts just short of 25 kt, accompanied by seas as high as 3-5 ft.
As the cold front gradually migrates through the waters Saturday
afternoon into Sunday, a slackening gradient will translate to much
lighter winds and subsiding seas outside any thunderstorms. The cold
front will eventually stall over the Georgia waters Sunday and will
then dissipate early next week. Thus, winds should turn toward the
E/NE at less than 15 kt most areas, although uncertainty regarding
the eventual position of the dissipating stationary front introduced
uncertainty regarding wind direction, especially across GA Waters.
nevertheless, seas will subside to 1-3 ft Sunday into early next
week. Eventually, after the front dissipates winds will veer
through the SE to the S/SW by Monday night or Tuesday between
Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough of low pressure.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KFFC 240004
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
804 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

Overall, an upper ridge is dominating the forecast area through
the short term, but a deepening upper trough over the eastern U.S.
coast will push a cold front into the area from the northeast on
Friday.

An upper ridge centered over the southern states will continue to
produce hot and dry conditions over a large portion of the CWA
through the end of the week. Have continued with slight chance to
chance pops across far north Georgia tonight, and spread them
southward into northern metro Atlanta Friday as cold front pushes
into the state from the north/northeast as trough aloft deepens.
SPC has included much of north Georgia in a marginal risk for
Friday, with a slight risk area nosing into the northeast portion
of the state (but still outside of the FFC CWA). Given the better
dynamics and instability, anticipate the best coverage and
intensity of storms to be on Friday. Isolated strong to severe
storms are expected, with damaging winds the main concern.

Models are fairly consistent with showing the 850mb temperatures
warming through Friday and into the weekend. The ECMWF appears to
be the warmest and has 850 temperatures in the 20-22 degree C
range through Saturday. As a result, through the short term, have
increased the model blend by a degree or two to account for the
above average conditions. For now, even with the increased
temperatures, the Heat Advisory criteria of a heat index of 105
is approached but not met, and for now will not issue an Advisory
for Friday. That being said, into Saturday, temperatures and
dew points will produce heat index values meeting and/or
exceeding the criteria and an Advisory will likely be necessary.

31

LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
No major changes made to the extended forecast.

01

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 350 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016/

An upper level ridge will be firmly entrenched across the
southern states to start the Long Term but the center will be
drifting W with respect to GA. A weak cold front or surface trough
will be drifting into NE GA Friday night into Saturday. This will
help the potential for showers and thunderstorms Friday night
favoring far E Ga and even more so on Saturday with the heating of
the day. A warm airmass will continue with most high temperatures
in the 90s on Saturday except for the mountains. A few locations
around central Ga will approach 100. Heat indices are looking to
get to 103 to 107 degrees over a large portion of central Ga.

The rest of the long term will see increased chances for showers
and thunderstorms, tending to be diurnally driven with the
heating of the day and a overall moisture increase. A cold front
will approach or move into N GA late Tuesday and likely stall
across the area on Wednesday, continuing shower and thunderstorm
chances across the area with the highest pops favoring central GA.

Temperatures will strongly favor above normal this long term period.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
Continued VFR conditions anticipated for this TAF cycle. Current
line of TSRA over Kentucky moving into TN will stay north of the
terminals and will leave out of this set. Just re-development of
SCT cu expected for Fri.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
High on all elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  98  74  97 /  20  20  20  40
Atlanta         75  95  77  95 /  10  20  20  40
Blairsville     70  90  68  90 /  30  30  20  40
Cartersville    72  94  71  94 /  20  30  20  40
Columbus        73  97  76  97 /   5  20  20  30
Gainesville     74  93  74  94 /  20  30  20  40
Macon           71  99  74  98 /   5  20  20  40
Rome            72  95  71  95 /  20  30  20  40
Peachtree City  69  95  71  96 /  10  20  20  40
Vidalia         73  98  75  99 /   5  20  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Deese




000
FXUS62 KCAE 232328
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
728 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sinking southward and into Virginia today and North
Carolina Friday will move into the forecast area Friday night. The
front will remain near the area during the rest of the weekend.
It will be hot ahead of the front today and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Latest visible satellite imagery shows skies to be clear across
the CWA this evening. There is a line of cu along the
foothills/high piedmont of sc/nc. Isolated convection possible
into this evening across the extreme northern midlands along the
nc/sc border. Otherwise, dry conditions for the area.

Convection across nc should wane during the overnight hours with
the loss of heating and stabilization of the atmosphere. Bufkit
time heights show another 25-30 knot low level jet overnight which
will help keep the boundary layer mixed and overnight lows from
falling too fast. This will once again keep winds up across the
area and especially over the warm lakes. The past couple of
nights...winds have ranged from 10 to 20 mph on area lakes.
Overnight lows expected in the mid to upper 70s after a very warm
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Front will continue sliding southward on Friday with temperatures
once again rising to around triple digits. Although the front will
be ill defined instability will be high with LIs around -7 and
CAPE nearing 2000 J/Kg. Freezing level and WBZ heights will be 15
kft and 13 kft respectively and with hot temperatures hail threat
will be lowered...however with some dry air remaining in the mid
levels the potential for damaging wind gusts exists through the
afternoon and into the overnight hours. Friday night the front
will continue slowly moving southward and is expected to be over
the southern Midlands and CSRA by daybreak Saturday. Instability
will remain high on Saturday as well with the potential for
damaging winds continuing...however the focus will shift to the
southern Midlands and CSRA along the front. Temperatures on Friday
will be in the upper 90s to low 100s and lower to middle 90s on
Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models are in good agreement with some differences in intensity
with the next front moving through the area late Monday into
Tuesday. Frontal boundary will continue sagging south of the
forecast area on Sunday with low pressure pushing a cold front
from the Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley on Monday. The front
will move into the area late Monday into Monday night and through
the area Tuesday. The GFS remains more progressive with this
feature than the ECMWF which slows the frontal passage with the
front lingering through Wednesday. With lower than desired
confidence for late Tuesday onward only minor adjustments have
been made to the forecast. Temperatures through the long term will
be near to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the middle of the afternoon Friday.

High pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to
ridge into the area overnight as a cold front remains north of the
area. Convection is expected to remain north of the terminals
through tonight. Could see patches of mid level clouds cross the TAF
sites overnight as a weak upper level disturbance crosses the area.
A 25 to 30 knot low level jet is forecast overnight which will help
keep the boundary layer mixed and inhibit fog development.
Southwesterly winds 5 to 10 knots expected overnight. Winds will
increase again after 14Z from the west 10 to 15 knots. Convection
is expected to develop Friday afternoon but should not initiate
until after 21z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Friday evening due
to scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Diurnal convection expected
through Tuesday with a frontal boundary near the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 232328
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
728 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sinking southward and into Virginia today and North
Carolina Friday will move into the forecast area Friday night. The
front will remain near the area during the rest of the weekend.
It will be hot ahead of the front today and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Latest visible satellite imagery shows skies to be clear across
the CWA this evening. There is a line of cu along the
foothills/high piedmont of sc/nc. Isolated convection possible
into this evening across the extreme northern midlands along the
nc/sc border. Otherwise, dry conditions for the area.

Convection across nc should wane during the overnight hours with
the loss of heating and stabilization of the atmosphere. Bufkit
time heights show another 25-30 knot low level jet overnight which
will help keep the boundary layer mixed and overnight lows from
falling too fast. This will once again keep winds up across the
area and especially over the warm lakes. The past couple of
nights...winds have ranged from 10 to 20 mph on area lakes.
Overnight lows expected in the mid to upper 70s after a very warm
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Front will continue sliding southward on Friday with temperatures
once again rising to around triple digits. Although the front will
be ill defined instability will be high with LIs around -7 and
CAPE nearing 2000 J/Kg. Freezing level and WBZ heights will be 15
kft and 13 kft respectively and with hot temperatures hail threat
will be lowered...however with some dry air remaining in the mid
levels the potential for damaging wind gusts exists through the
afternoon and into the overnight hours. Friday night the front
will continue slowly moving southward and is expected to be over
the southern Midlands and CSRA by daybreak Saturday. Instability
will remain high on Saturday as well with the potential for
damaging winds continuing...however the focus will shift to the
southern Midlands and CSRA along the front. Temperatures on Friday
will be in the upper 90s to low 100s and lower to middle 90s on
Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models are in good agreement with some differences in intensity
with the next front moving through the area late Monday into
Tuesday. Frontal boundary will continue sagging south of the
forecast area on Sunday with low pressure pushing a cold front
from the Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley on Monday. The front
will move into the area late Monday into Monday night and through
the area Tuesday. The GFS remains more progressive with this
feature than the ECMWF which slows the frontal passage with the
front lingering through Wednesday. With lower than desired
confidence for late Tuesday onward only minor adjustments have
been made to the forecast. Temperatures through the long term will
be near to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the middle of the afternoon Friday.

High pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to
ridge into the area overnight as a cold front remains north of the
area. Convection is expected to remain north of the terminals
through tonight. Could see patches of mid level clouds cross the TAF
sites overnight as a weak upper level disturbance crosses the area.
A 25 to 30 knot low level jet is forecast overnight which will help
keep the boundary layer mixed and inhibit fog development.
Southwesterly winds 5 to 10 knots expected overnight. Winds will
increase again after 14Z from the west 10 to 15 knots. Convection
is expected to develop Friday afternoon but should not initiate
until after 21z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Friday evening due
to scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Diurnal convection expected
through Tuesday with a frontal boundary near the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 232248
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
648 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain situated between Atlantic high pressure and an
inland trough tonight. A cold front will approach from the north
Friday, push south into the area Saturday, then stall across
Southeast Georgia Sunday. The front will gradually dissipate into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Another quiet night expected as the weather pattern remains fairly
stagnant, featuring a trough of low pressure inland with high
pressure over the Atlantic extending back west over Florida.
Aloft, the forecast area will remain under the influence of an
expansive ridge encompassing the southern half of the country.
Subsidence and lack of any significant moisture will keep a dry
forecast in place this evening through the overnight period.
Mostly clear skies will be the rule although some high clouds
could stream in from time to time. Low temperatures mainly in the
low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday: Subtropical ridging will break down as the area becomes
influences by a northwest flow regime between the retreating ridge
and longwave troughing over New England/Mid-Atlantic states. A
backdoor cold front will gradually work south through Virginia and
approach North Carolina Friday evening keeping all of Southeast
South Carolina and Southeast Georgia well embedded within the warm
sector. Westerly flow head of the front coupled with rising mid-
level temperatures will support highs in the upper 90s for most
areas away from the coast with highs around 100 possibly setting up
in the Metter-Allendale corridor where 850 hPa temperatures are
progged to peak ~21C. Forecast soundings show a potential for deep
mixing with dewpoints mixing out into the mid 60s during peak
heating, which will tend to limit heat indices to the 102-105 range.
This is just below the pre-July 1 Heat Advisory criteria. There are
signals that dewpoints could pool into the lower 70s along parts of
the lower South Carolina coast as the delayed resultant sea breeze
moves inland. This could yield about a 1-3 hour period of heat
indices >105 degrees roughly in the Hilton Head-North Charleston-
Shulerville corridor. Timing and strength of the resultant sea
breeze circulation will be crucial to how much dewpoint pooling
occurs. Confidence in timing and spatial distribution of heat
indices >105 is just not high at this time to support a Heat
Advisory for any of the lower South Carolina zones. Lows will range
from the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s at the beaches and downtown
Charleston.

Modified soundings show the atmosphere remaining capped in the 800-750
hPa layer despite temperatures rising into the upper 90s/near 100. This
will tend to curtail afternoon/evening convection. Could see an isolated
shower/tstm pop along the Charleston County coast where instability
will be augmented by dewpoints rising into the lower 70s, but activity
looks to remain isolated, if it forms at all. Could also see isolated
to scattered activity form over the Eastern Midlands and Pee Dee
during peak heating where instability will be greater, capping
weaker with some support of weak shortwave energy. Some of this
could make a run for the Charleston Tri-county area by early evening
as shortwave energy passes offshore of the upper South Carolina
coast. Will highlight 20-30% pops to account for this with gridded
pops below mentionable thresholds elsewhere. DCAPE will be quite
high given the expected Temp/Dewpoint spreads throughout the lower
troposphere, so an isolated severe tstm with damaging winds can not
be completely ruled out. However, the greater risk looks to remain
confined to areas closer to the North Carolina border.

Saturday: Another hot day is expected as a cold front slowly meanders
south into the area. Models have trended slightly slower with the
passage of the front, most likely due to the resident hot airmass
that will be in place. Highs will be tempered a bit across north
where convection is expected to fire first near the front itself,
but still expect a hot day with ranging from the mid 90s along/north
of the I-26 corridor with upper 90s/around 100 elsewhere. Unlike
Friday, the mixing potential looks a bit more limited with dewpoints
pooling ahead of the front. Heat indices of 105-108 are likely for
many areas and a Heat Advisory may very well be needed if this trend
holds. Modified soundings yield incredible instability with SBCAPE
reaching 4500-5000 J/kg. Expect scattered showers/tstms to fire mid-
late afternoon as the front moves south, some of which will be
severe. The coverage of severe tstms will be primary driven by
mesoscale boundary interactions in the absence of any meaningful
shear, but the risk for damaging winds will be elevated with DCAPE
running 1400-1700 J/kg. Pops will be capped at 50% for now, but
higher pops could be needed as mesoscale trends become more
apparent. Convection will persist into the evening hours as the
front drops south. Lows will range from the mid-upper 70s with lower
80s at the coast and downtown Charleston.

Sunday: The cold front will gradually dissipate across Southeast
Georgia as subtropical ridging becomes reestablished. Should see
another day of scattered showers/tstms, however with the greater
coverage occurring across interior Southeast Georgia. Pops of 30-40%
look reasonable with highs in the lower-mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
This period will feature temps and dewpoints/humidity typical for
late June. The stationary front will dissipate over or close to the
region early next week, but a surface trough will persist across the
region into late week. Initially, the upper ridge centered west of
the region will expand over the Southeast, then a broad upper trough
will develop over the eastern Conus. This, isolated/scattered mainly
diurnal convection to start the week could give way to a wetter
regime mid to later week as a band of deep layered moisture/PWATs
around 2 inches settles over the region. Thus, forecasts for Tuesday
through Thursday include chance pops for all periods, as high as 40-
50 percent during daylight hours each day. Locally greater pops
could eventually be required, especially around Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR through 00Z Saturday. At KCHS, the risk of VCTS late in the
afternoon on Friday remains quite low at this juncture.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible in
thunderstorms Friday night through Tuesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Elevated winds to persist through the night as the
coastal waters remain sandwiched between Atlantic high pressure
and a piedmont trough inland. Southwest winds expected to peak in
the 15-20 knot range. Gusts near 25 knots will be possible mainly
across the Charleston county waters, however low frequency and
small areal coverage will preclude an issuance of a Small Craft
Advisory. Seas 2-3 feet this evening will build to 3-5 feet
overnight.

Friday through Tuesday: Ahead of an approaching cold front Friday
into early Saturday, a tight pressure gradient/enhanced low-level
winds will maintain elevated SW winds 15-20 kt with occasional
gusts just short of 25 kt, accompanied by seas as high as 3-5 ft.
As the cold front gradually migrates through the waters Saturday
afternoon into Sunday, a slackening gradient will translate to much
lighter winds and subsiding seas outside any thunderstorms. The cold
front will eventually stall over the Georgia waters Sunday and will
then dissipate early next week. Thus, winds should turn toward the
E/NE at less than 15 kt most areas, although uncertainty regarding
the eventual position of the dissipating stationary front introduced
uncertainty regarding wind direction, especially across GA Waters.
nevertheless, seas will subside to 1-3 ft Sunday into early next
week. Eventually, after the front dissipates winds will veer
through the SE to the S/SW by Monday night or Tuesday between
Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough of low pressure.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCAE 232045
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
445 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sinking southward and into Virginia today and North
Carolina Friday will move into the forecast area Friday night. The
front will remain near the area during the rest of the weekend.
It will be hot ahead of the front today and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Visible satellite imagery showing scattered cumulus over the
north Midlands. Strong capping inversion noted on forecast
soundings should limit convective initiation despite moderate
instability shown on latest SPC mesoanalysis graphics. Moisture
continues to be a limiting factor with precipitable water values
ranging from 1.1 inches in the CSRA to around 1.5 inches in the
Pee Dee region and far northern Midlands. Isolated convection
possible into this evening across the north Midlands as the
capping inversion erodes in that area. Will carry slight chance
pops across the northern Midlands to account for this possibility.

Convection should wane during the overnight hours with the loss of
heating and stabilization of the atmosphere.  Bufkit time heights
show another 25-30 knot low level jet overnight which will help keep
the boundary layer mixed and overnight lows from falling too fast.
Overnight lows expected in the mid to upper 70s after a very warm
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Front will continue sliding southward on Friday with temperatures
once again rising to around triple digits. Although the front will
be ill defined instability will be high with LIs around -7 and
CAPE nearing 2000 J/Kg. Freezing level and WBZ heights will be 15
kft and 13 kft respectively and with hot temperatures hail threat
will be lowered...however with some dry air remaining in the mid
levels the potential for damaging wind gusts exists through the
afternoon and into the overnight hours. Friday night the front
will continue slowly moving southward and is expected to be over
the southern Midlands and CSRA by daybreak Saturday. Instability
will remain high on Saturday as well with the potential for
damaging winds continuing...however the focus will shift to the
southern Midlands and CSRA along the front. Temperatures on Friday
will be in the upper 90s to low 100s and lower to middle 90s on
Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models are in good agreement with some differences in intensity
with the next front moving through the area late Monday into
Tuesday. Frontal boundary will continue sagging south of the
forecast area on Sunday with low pressure pushing a cold front
from the Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley on Monday. The front
will move into the area late Monday into Monday night and through
the area Tuesday. The GFS remains more progressive with this
feature than the ECMWF which slows the frontal passage with the
front lingering through Wednesday. With lower than desired
confidence for late Tuesday onward only minor adjustments have
been made to the forecast. Temperatures through the long term will
be near to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected at the terminals through the 24 hour TAF
forecast period.

High pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to
ridge into the area overnight as a cold front remains north of the
area.  Convection is expected to remain north of the terminals
through tonight. A 25 to 30 knot low level jet is forecast overnight
which will help keep the boundary layer mixed and inhibit fog
development. Southwesterly gusty winds this afternoon will diminish
after sunset but winds will stay up overnight. Winds increase again
after 15z from the west around 10 to 15 knots. Convection is
expected on Friday afternoon but should not initiate until after
18z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Friday evening
due to scattered thunderstorms. Diurnal convection expected
through Tuesday with a frontal boundary near the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 232045
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
445 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sinking southward and into Virginia today and North
Carolina Friday will move into the forecast area Friday night. The
front will remain near the area during the rest of the weekend.
It will be hot ahead of the front today and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Visible satellite imagery showing scattered cumulus over the
north Midlands. Strong capping inversion noted on forecast
soundings should limit convective initiation despite moderate
instability shown on latest SPC mesoanalysis graphics. Moisture
continues to be a limiting factor with precipitable water values
ranging from 1.1 inches in the CSRA to around 1.5 inches in the
Pee Dee region and far northern Midlands. Isolated convection
possible into this evening across the north Midlands as the
capping inversion erodes in that area. Will carry slight chance
pops across the northern Midlands to account for this possibility.

Convection should wane during the overnight hours with the loss of
heating and stabilization of the atmosphere.  Bufkit time heights
show another 25-30 knot low level jet overnight which will help keep
the boundary layer mixed and overnight lows from falling too fast.
Overnight lows expected in the mid to upper 70s after a very warm
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Front will continue sliding southward on Friday with temperatures
once again rising to around triple digits. Although the front will
be ill defined instability will be high with LIs around -7 and
CAPE nearing 2000 J/Kg. Freezing level and WBZ heights will be 15
kft and 13 kft respectively and with hot temperatures hail threat
will be lowered...however with some dry air remaining in the mid
levels the potential for damaging wind gusts exists through the
afternoon and into the overnight hours. Friday night the front
will continue slowly moving southward and is expected to be over
the southern Midlands and CSRA by daybreak Saturday. Instability
will remain high on Saturday as well with the potential for
damaging winds continuing...however the focus will shift to the
southern Midlands and CSRA along the front. Temperatures on Friday
will be in the upper 90s to low 100s and lower to middle 90s on
Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models are in good agreement with some differences in intensity
with the next front moving through the area late Monday into
Tuesday. Frontal boundary will continue sagging south of the
forecast area on Sunday with low pressure pushing a cold front
from the Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley on Monday. The front
will move into the area late Monday into Monday night and through
the area Tuesday. The GFS remains more progressive with this
feature than the ECMWF which slows the frontal passage with the
front lingering through Wednesday. With lower than desired
confidence for late Tuesday onward only minor adjustments have
been made to the forecast. Temperatures through the long term will
be near to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected at the terminals through the 24 hour TAF
forecast period.

High pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to
ridge into the area overnight as a cold front remains north of the
area.  Convection is expected to remain north of the terminals
through tonight. A 25 to 30 knot low level jet is forecast overnight
which will help keep the boundary layer mixed and inhibit fog
development. Southwesterly gusty winds this afternoon will diminish
after sunset but winds will stay up overnight. Winds increase again
after 15z from the west around 10 to 15 knots. Convection is
expected on Friday afternoon but should not initiate until after
18z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Friday evening
due to scattered thunderstorms. Diurnal convection expected
through Tuesday with a frontal boundary near the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 231930
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
330 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain situated between Atlantic high pressure and an
inland trough tonight. A cold front will approach from the north
Friday, push south into the area Saturday, then stall across
Southeast Georgia Sunday. The front will gradually dissipate into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Another quiet night expected as the weather pattern remains fairly
stagnant, featuring a trough of low pressure inland with high
pressure over the Atlantic extending back west over Florida.
Aloft, the forecast area will remain under the influence of an
expansive ridge encompassing the southern half of the country.
Subsidence and lack of any significant moisture will keep a dry
forecast in place this evening through the overnight period.
Mostly clear skies will be the rule although some high clouds
could stream in from time to time. Low temperatures mainly in the
low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday: Subtropical ridging will break down as the area becomes
influences by a northwest flow regime between the retreating ridge
and longwave troughing over New England/Mid-Atlantic states. A
backdoor cold front will gradually work south through Virginia and
approach North Carolina Friday evening keeping all of Southeast
South Carolina and Southeast Georgia well embedded within the warm
sector. Westerly flow head of the front coupled with rising mid-
level temperatures will support highs in the upper 90s for most
areas away from the coast with highs around 100 possibly setting up
in the Metter-Allendale corridor where 850 hPa temperatures are
progged to peak ~21C. Forecast soundings show a potential for deep
mixing with dewpoints mixing out into the mid 60s during peak
heating, which will tend to limit heat indices to the 102-105 range.
This is just below the pre-July 1 Heat Advisory criteria. There are
signals that dewpoints could pool into the lower 70s along parts of
the lower South Carolina coast as the delayed resultant sea breeze
moves inland. This could yield about a 1-3 hour period of heat
indices >105 degrees roughly in the Hilton Head-North Charleston-
Shulerville corridor. Timing and strength of the resultant sea
breeze circulation will be crucial to how much dewpoint pooling
occurs. Confidence in timing and spatial distribution of heat
indices >105 is just not high at this time to support a Heat
Advisory for any of the lower South Carolina zones. Lows will range
from the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s at the beaches and downtown
Charleston.

Modified soundings show the atmosphere remaining capped in the 800-750
hPa layer despite temperatures rising into the upper 90s/near 100. This
will tend to curtail afternoon/evening convection. Could see an isolated
shower/tstm pop along the Charleston County coast where instability
will be augmented by dewpoints rising into the lower 70s, but activity
looks to remain isolated, if it forms at all. Could also see isolated
to scattered activity form over the Eastern Midlands and Pee Dee
during peak heating where instability will be greater, capping
weaker with some support of weak shortwave energy. Some of this
could make a run for the Charleston Tri-county area by early evening
as shortwave energy passes offshore of the upper South Carolina
coast. Will highlight 20-30% pops to account for this with gridded
pops below mentionable thresholds elsewhere. DCAPE will be quite
high given the expected Temp/Dewpoint spreads throughout the lower
troposphere, so an isolated severe tstm with damaging winds can not
be completely ruled out. However, the greater risk looks to remain
confined to areas closer to the North Carolina border.

Saturday: Another hot day is expected as a cold front slowly meanders
south into the area. Models have trended slightly slower with the
passage of the front, most likely due to the resident hot airmass
that will be in place. Highs will be tempered a bit across north
where convection is expected to fire first near the front itself,
but still expect a hot day with ranging from the mid 90s along/north
of the I-26 corridor with upper 90s/around 100 elsewhere. Unlike
Friday, the mixing potential looks a bit more limited with dewpoints
pooling ahead of the front. Heat indices of 105-108 are likely for
many areas and a Heat Advisory may very well be needed if this trend
holds. Modified soundings yield incredible instability with SBCAPE
reaching 4500-5000 J/kg. Expect scattered showers/tstms to fire mid-
late afternoon as the front moves south, some of which will be
severe. The coverage of severe tstms will be primary driven by
mesoscale boundary interactions in the absence of any meaningful
shear, but the risk for damaging winds will be elevated with DCAPE
running 1400-1700 J/kg. Pops will be capped at 50% for now, but
higher pops could be needed as mesoscale trends become more
apparent. Convection will persist into the evening hours as the
front drops south. Lows will range from the mid-upper 70s with lower
80s at the coast and downtown Charleston.

Sunday: The cold front will gradually dissipate across Southeast
Georgia as subtropical ridging becomes reestablished. Should see
another day of scattered showers/tstms, however with the greater
coverage occurring across interior Southeast Georgia. Pops of 30-40%
look reasonable with highs in the lower-mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
This period will feature temps and dewpoints/humidity typical for
late June. The stationary front will dissipate over or close to the
region early next week, but a surface trough will persist across the
region into late week. Initially, the upper ridge centered west of
the region will expand over the Southeast, then a broad upper trough
will develop over the eastern Conus. This, isolated/scattered mainly
diurnal convection to start the week could give way to a wetter
regime mid to later week as a band of deep layered moisture/PWATs
around 2 inches settles over the region. Thus, forecasts for Tuesday
through Thursday include chance pops for all periods, as high as 40-
50 percent during daylight hours each day. Locally greater pops
could eventually be required, especially around Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR through 18z Friday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible in
thunderstorms Friday night through Tuesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Elevated winds to persist through the night as the
coastal waters remain sandwiched between Atlantic high pressure
and a piedmont trough inland. Southwest winds expected to peak in
the 15-20 knot range. Gusts near 25 knots will be possible mainly
across the Charleston county waters, however low frequency and
small areal coverage will preclude an issuance of a Small Craft
Advisory. Seas 2-3 feet this evening will build to 3-5 feet
overnight.

Friday through Tuesday: Ahead of an approaching cold front Friday
into early Saturday, a tight pressure gradient/enhanced low-level
winds will maintain elevated SW winds 15-20 kt with occasional
gusts just short of 25 kt, accompanied by seas as high as 3-5 ft.
As the cold front gradually migrates through the waters Saturday
afternoon into Sunday, a slackening gradient will translate to much
lighter winds and subsiding seas outside any thunderstorms. The cold
front will eventually stall over the Georgia waters Sunday and will
then dissipate early next week. Thus, winds should turn toward the
E/NE at less than 15 kt most areas, although uncertainty regarding
the eventual position of the dissipating stationary front introduced
uncertainty regarding wind direction, especially across GA Waters.
nevertheless, seas will subside to 1-3 ft Sunday into early next
week. Eventually, after the front dissipates winds will veer
through the SE to the S/SW by Monday night or Tuesday between
Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough of low pressure.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...ECT/ST




000
FXUS62 KFFC 231904
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
304 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

Overall, an upper ridge is dominating the forecast area through
the short term, but a deepening upper trough over the eastern U.S.
coast will push a cold front into the area from the northeast on
Friday.

An upper ridge centered over the southern states will continue to
produce hot and dry conditions over a large portion of the CWA
through the end of the week. Have continued with slight chance to
chance pops across far north Georgia tonight, and spread them
southward into northern metro Atlanta Friday as cold front pushes
into the state from the north/northeast as trough aloft deepens.
SPC has included much of north Georgia in a marginal risk for
Friday, with a slight risk area nosing into the northeast portion
of the state (but still outside of the FFC CWA). Given the better
dynamics and instability, anticipate the best coverage and
intensity of storms to be on Friday. Isolated strong to severe
storms are expected, with damaging winds the main concern.

Models are fairly consistent with showing the 850mb temperatures
warming through Friday and into the weekend. The ECMWF appears to
be the warmest and has 850 temperatures in the 20-22 degree C
range through Saturday. As a result, through the short term, have
increased the model blend by a degree or two to account for the
above average conditions. For now, even with the increased
temperatures, the Heat Advisory criteria of a heat index of 105
is approached but not met, and for now will not issue an Advisory
for Friday. That being said, into Saturday, temperatures and
dew points will produce heat index values meeting and/or
exceeding the criteria and an Advisory will likely be necessary.

31


.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
No major changes made to the extended forecast.

01

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 350 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016/

An upper level ridge will be firmly entrenched across the
southern states to start the Long Term but the center will be
drifting W with respect to GA. A weak cold front or surface trough
will be drifting into NE GA Friday night into Saturday. This will
help the potential for showers and thunderstorms Friday night
favoring far E Ga and even more so on Saturday with the heating of
the day. A warm airmass will continue with most high temperatures
in the 90s on Saturday except for the mountains. A few locations
around central Ga will approach 100. Heat indices are looking to
get to 103 to 107 degrees over a large portion of central Ga.

The rest of the long term will see increased chances for showers
and thunderstorms, tending to be diurnally driven with the
heating of the day and a overall moisture increase. A cold front
will approach or move into N GA late Tuesday and likely stall
across the area on Wednesday, continuing shower and thunderstorm
chances across the area with the highest pops favoring central GA.

Temperatures will strongly favor above normal this long term period.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions expected through the period. Largely diurnal
cumulus. Convection possible in far north Georgia this afternoon
and overnight and then again Friday afternoon, but away from TAF
sites. West winds expected, with speeds 6kt or less overnight, and
increasing to 8-10kt Friday mid-morning.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High on all elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  97  75  95 /  10  20  30  40
Atlanta         74  93  76  93 /   5  20  20  40
Blairsville     69  89  68  89 /  50  50  40  40
Cartersville    72  93  73  93 /  10  30  20  40
Columbus        72  96  75  97 /   5  10  10  30
Gainesville     74  93  75  93 /  20  40  30  40
Macon           72  98  74  97 /   5  10  20  40
Rome            72  94  73  94 /  20  40  20  40
Peachtree City  70  93  73  94 /   5  20  20  40
Vidalia         73  97  77  97 /   5  10  10  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 231904
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
304 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

Overall, an upper ridge is dominating the forecast area through
the short term, but a deepening upper trough over the eastern U.S.
coast will push a cold front into the area from the northeast on
Friday.

An upper ridge centered over the southern states will continue to
produce hot and dry conditions over a large portion of the CWA
through the end of the week. Have continued with slight chance to
chance pops across far north Georgia tonight, and spread them
southward into northern metro Atlanta Friday as cold front pushes
into the state from the north/northeast as trough aloft deepens.
SPC has included much of north Georgia in a marginal risk for
Friday, with a slight risk area nosing into the northeast portion
of the state (but still outside of the FFC CWA). Given the better
dynamics and instability, anticipate the best coverage and
intensity of storms to be on Friday. Isolated strong to severe
storms are expected, with damaging winds the main concern.

Models are fairly consistent with showing the 850mb temperatures
warming through Friday and into the weekend. The ECMWF appears to
be the warmest and has 850 temperatures in the 20-22 degree C
range through Saturday. As a result, through the short term, have
increased the model blend by a degree or two to account for the
above average conditions. For now, even with the increased
temperatures, the Heat Advisory criteria of a heat index of 105
is approached but not met, and for now will not issue an Advisory
for Friday. That being said, into Saturday, temperatures and
dew points will produce heat index values meeting and/or
exceeding the criteria and an Advisory will likely be necessary.

31


.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
No major changes made to the extended forecast.

01

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 350 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016/

An upper level ridge will be firmly entrenched across the
southern states to start the Long Term but the center will be
drifting W with respect to GA. A weak cold front or surface trough
will be drifting into NE GA Friday night into Saturday. This will
help the potential for showers and thunderstorms Friday night
favoring far E Ga and even more so on Saturday with the heating of
the day. A warm airmass will continue with most high temperatures
in the 90s on Saturday except for the mountains. A few locations
around central Ga will approach 100. Heat indices are looking to
get to 103 to 107 degrees over a large portion of central Ga.

The rest of the long term will see increased chances for showers
and thunderstorms, tending to be diurnally driven with the
heating of the day and a overall moisture increase. A cold front
will approach or move into N GA late Tuesday and likely stall
across the area on Wednesday, continuing shower and thunderstorm
chances across the area with the highest pops favoring central GA.

Temperatures will strongly favor above normal this long term period.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions expected through the period. Largely diurnal
cumulus. Convection possible in far north Georgia this afternoon
and overnight and then again Friday afternoon, but away from TAF
sites. West winds expected, with speeds 6kt or less overnight, and
increasing to 8-10kt Friday mid-morning.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High on all elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  97  75  95 /  10  20  30  40
Atlanta         74  93  76  93 /   5  20  20  40
Blairsville     69  89  68  89 /  50  50  40  40
Cartersville    72  93  73  93 /  10  30  20  40
Columbus        72  96  75  97 /   5  10  10  30
Gainesville     74  93  75  93 /  20  40  30  40
Macon           72  98  74  97 /   5  10  20  40
Rome            72  94  73  94 /  20  40  20  40
Peachtree City  70  93  73  94 /   5  20  20  40
Vidalia         73  97  77  97 /   5  10  10  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KCAE 231846
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
246 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sinking southward and into Virginia today and North
Carolina Friday will move into the forecast area Friday night. The
front will remain near the area during the rest of the weekend.
It will be hot ahead of the front today and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Visible satellite imagery showing some developing cumulus over the
Midlands as temperatures push into the mid and upper 90s. Strong
capping inversion noted on forecast soundings should limit
convective initiation despite moderate instability shown on latest
SPC mesoanalysis graphics.  Moisture continues to be a limiting
factor with precipitable water values ranging from 1.1 inches in the
CSRA to around 1.5 inches in the Pee Dee region and far northern
Midlands. Dewpoints are a bit higher in the northern Midlands which
may support isolated convection late afternoon into this evening as
the capping inversion erodes in that area.  Will carry slight chance
pops across the northern Midlands after 21z to account for this
possibility.

Convection should wane during the overnight hours with the loss of
heating and stabilization of the atmosphere.  Bufkit time heights
show another 25-30 knot low level jet overnight which will help keep
the boundary layer mixed and overnight lows from falling too fast.
Overnight lows expected in the mid to upper 70s after a very warm
day today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Front will continue sliding southward on Friday with temperatures
once again rising to around triple digits. Although the front will
be ill defined instability will be high with LIs around -7 and
CAPE nearing 2000 J/Kg. Freezing level and WBZ heights will be 15
kft and 13 kft respectively and with hot temperatures hail threat
will be lowered...however with some dry air remaining in the mid
levels the potential for damaging wind gusts exists through the
afternoon and into the overnight hours. Friday night the front
will continue slowly moving southward and is expected to be over
the southern Midlands and CSRA by daybreak Saturday. Instability
will remain high on Saturday as well with the potential for
damaging winds continuing...however the focus will shift to the
southern Midlands and CSRA along the front. Temperatures on Friday
will be in the upper 90s to low 100s and lower to middle 90s on
Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models are in good agreement with some differences in intensity
with the next front moving through the area late Monday into
Tuesday. Frontal boundary will continue sagging south of the
forecast area on Sunday with low pressure pushing a cold front
from the Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley on Monday. The front
will move into the area late Monday into Monday night and through
the area Tuesday. The GFS remains more progressive with this
feature than the ECMWF which slows the frontal passage with the
front lingering through Wednesday. With lower than desired
confidence for late Tuesday onward only minor adjustments have
been made to the forecast. Temperatures through the long term will
be near to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected at the terminals through the 24 hour TAF
forecast period.

High pressure at the surface and aloft will prevail over the region
through tonight. Convection should be capped across our area today
and expected to remain north of the terminals through tonight. A 25
to 30 knot low level jet is forecast overnight which will help keep
the boundary layer mixed and inhibit fog development.  Southwesterly
gusty winds this afternoon will diminish after sunset but winds will
stay up overnight. Winds increase again after 15z from the west
around 10 to 15 knots.  Convection is expected on Friday afternoon
but should not initiate until after the end of this forecast period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Friday evening
due to scattered thunderstorms. Diurnal convection expected
through Tuesday with a frontal boundary near the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 231819
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
219 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1230 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016/

UPDATE...
Have made only minimal changes to the forecast for the afternoon.
Temperatures are generally warming on track and expect no
significant changes until the afternoon forecast package is
issued.

31

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 732 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...
Basically a dry air mass will continue in place across
the forecast area today with the upper ridge dominating. No mention
of convection for today except have kept a slight chance for the
northeast corner this afternoon. The convective system moving
through the OH Valley this morning could potentially send outflow
boundaries into the southern Appalachians...so a slight chance for
northeast GA still looks reasonable. The upper trough over the
northeast states deepens a bit tonight and Friday...sending a
surface front southward into TN and NC. Not certain how far south
this boundary will go during the short term...however chance pops
for the north GA tonight...and north and a portion of central GA on
Friday still look okay. Hot temperatures should continue each day.
Max temperatures in the mid 90s to near 100 for portions of eastern
and central GA should give heat index readings in the 100 to 104
range Friday afternoon. This is just below heat advisory criteria
but will continue to monitor for any increase.

41

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...
An upper level ridge will be firmly entrenched across the
southern states to start the Long Term but the center will be
drifting W with respect to GA. A weak cold front or surface trough
will be drifting into NE GA Friday night into Saturday. This will
help the potential for showers and thunderstorms Friday night
favoring far E Ga and even more so on Saturday with the heating of
the day. A warm airmass will continue with most high temperatures
in the 90s on Saturday except for the mountains. A few locations
around central Ga will approach 100. Heat indices are looking to
get to 103 to 107 degrees over a large portion of central Ga.

The rest of the long term will see increased chances for showers
and thunderstorms...tending to be diurnally driven with the
heating of the day and a overall moisture increase. A cold front
will approach or move into N GA late Tuesday and likely stall
across the area on Wednesday... continuing shower and thunderstorm
chances across the area with the highest pops favoring central GA.

Temperatures will strongly favor above normal this long term period.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions expected through the period. Largely diurnal
cumulus. Convection possible in far north Georgia this afternoon
and overnight and then again Friday afternoon, but away from TAF
sites. West winds expected, with speeds 6kt or less overnight, and
increasing to 8-10kt Friday mid-morning.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High on all elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          97  73  97  75 /   5  10  20  30
Atlanta         92  74  93  76 /   5   5  20  20
Blairsville     88  69  89  68 /  20  50  50  40
Cartersville    93  72  93  73 /  10  10  30  20
Columbus        94  72  96  75 /   5   5  10  10
Gainesville     93  74  93  75 /  10  20  40  30
Macon           97  72  98  74 /   0   5  10  20
Rome            94  72  94  73 /  10  20  40  20
Peachtree City  93  70  93  73 /   5   5  20  20
Vidalia         96  73  97  77 /   5   5  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 231819
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
219 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1230 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016/

UPDATE...
Have made only minimal changes to the forecast for the afternoon.
Temperatures are generally warming on track and expect no
significant changes until the afternoon forecast package is
issued.

31

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 732 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...
Basically a dry air mass will continue in place across
the forecast area today with the upper ridge dominating. No mention
of convection for today except have kept a slight chance for the
northeast corner this afternoon. The convective system moving
through the OH Valley this morning could potentially send outflow
boundaries into the southern Appalachians...so a slight chance for
northeast GA still looks reasonable. The upper trough over the
northeast states deepens a bit tonight and Friday...sending a
surface front southward into TN and NC. Not certain how far south
this boundary will go during the short term...however chance pops
for the north GA tonight...and north and a portion of central GA on
Friday still look okay. Hot temperatures should continue each day.
Max temperatures in the mid 90s to near 100 for portions of eastern
and central GA should give heat index readings in the 100 to 104
range Friday afternoon. This is just below heat advisory criteria
but will continue to monitor for any increase.

41

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...
An upper level ridge will be firmly entrenched across the
southern states to start the Long Term but the center will be
drifting W with respect to GA. A weak cold front or surface trough
will be drifting into NE GA Friday night into Saturday. This will
help the potential for showers and thunderstorms Friday night
favoring far E Ga and even more so on Saturday with the heating of
the day. A warm airmass will continue with most high temperatures
in the 90s on Saturday except for the mountains. A few locations
around central Ga will approach 100. Heat indices are looking to
get to 103 to 107 degrees over a large portion of central Ga.

The rest of the long term will see increased chances for showers
and thunderstorms...tending to be diurnally driven with the
heating of the day and a overall moisture increase. A cold front
will approach or move into N GA late Tuesday and likely stall
across the area on Wednesday... continuing shower and thunderstorm
chances across the area with the highest pops favoring central GA.

Temperatures will strongly favor above normal this long term period.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions expected through the period. Largely diurnal
cumulus. Convection possible in far north Georgia this afternoon
and overnight and then again Friday afternoon, but away from TAF
sites. West winds expected, with speeds 6kt or less overnight, and
increasing to 8-10kt Friday mid-morning.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High on all elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          97  73  97  75 /   5  10  20  30
Atlanta         92  74  93  76 /   5   5  20  20
Blairsville     88  69  89  68 /  20  50  50  40
Cartersville    93  72  93  73 /  10  10  30  20
Columbus        94  72  96  75 /   5   5  10  10
Gainesville     93  74  93  75 /  10  20  40  30
Macon           97  72  98  74 /   0   5  10  20
Rome            94  72  94  73 /  10  20  40  20
Peachtree City  93  70  93  73 /   5   5  20  20
Vidalia         96  73  97  77 /   5   5  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KCAE 231714
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
114 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sinking southward and into Virginia today and North
Carolina Friday will move into the forecast area Friday night. The
front will remain near the area during the rest of the weekend.
It will be hot ahead of the front today and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Visible satellite imagery showing some developing cumulus over the
Midlands as temperatures push into the mid and upper 90s. Strong
capping inversion noted on forecast soundings should limit
convective initiation despite moderate instability shown on latest
SPC mesoanalysis graphics.  Moisture continues to be a limiting
factor with precipitable water values ranging from 1.1 inches in the
CSRA to around 1.5 inches in the Pee Dee region and far northern
Midlands. Dewpoints are a bit higher in the northern Midlands which
may support isolated convection late afternoon into this evening as
the capping inversion erodes in that area.  Will carry slight chance
pops across the northern Midlands after 21z to account for this
possibility.

Convection should wane during the overnight hours with the loss of
heating and stabilization of the atmosphere.  Bufkit time heights
show another 25-30 knot low level jet overnight which will help keep
the boundary layer mixed and overnight lows from falling too fast.
Overnight lows expected in the mid to upper 70s after a very warm
day today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The thunderstorm chance should increase as the cold front sinks
farther southward and moves into the forecast area Friday night.
The models also indicate upper ridging suppressed farther
southward. Still, with surface ridging south of the area limiting
moisture, thunderstorm coverage may remain limited. There is also
uncertainty with the timing of mid-level shortwave troughs. We
leaned toward the higher guidance pops because of convergence
ahead of the front and into the lee-side trough and expected
strong instability, but still kept the pops in the chance
category. Forecasted the highest chance in the north section
closer to greater upper-level support. The models depict strong
instability Friday into Friday night. The NAM displayed surface-
based LI`s -8 to -9. Thunderstorms with damaging wind and hail may
occur. Forecasted the greatest chance ahead of the front and close
to the time of maximum heating late Friday afternoon and evening.
H85 westerly flow and temperatures near 22 C ahead of the cold
front plus recent verification favored the higher temperature
guidance Friday. Followed the guidance consensus for the
temperature Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF display a front stalled near the forecast area
through Tuesday with another cold front nearing the area
Wednesday. The models have upper ridging near the forecast area
Saturday and Sunday shifting farther westward with a difluent
height pattern during the rest of the period. The pattern
supports chance pops. The GFS and ECMWF MOS have pops 20 to 50
percent through the medium-range period. The MOS indicates
temperatures near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected at the terminals through the 24 hour TAF
forecast period.

High pressure at the surface and aloft will prevail over the region
through tonight. Convection should be capped across our area today
and expected to remain north of the terminals through tonight. A 25
to 30 knot low level jet is forecast overnight which will help keep
the boundary layer mixed and inhibit fog development.  Southwesterly
gusty winds this afternoon will diminish after sunset but winds will
stay up overnight. Winds increase again after 15z from the west
around 10 to 15 knots.  Convection is expected on Friday afternoon
but should not initiate until after the end of this forecast period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Friday evening
due to scattered thunderstorms. Diurnal convection expected
through Tuesday with a frontal boundary near the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KCHS 231708
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
108 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain situated between Atlantic high pressure and an
inland trough into tonight. The trough will move closer to the coast
Friday, then a cold front will gradually advance into the region
Saturday. The front is expected to stall over or close to the area
Sunday and will dissipate early next week. A trough of low pressure
will then prevail across the Southeast through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Little change in the synoptic pattern expected through the
day. A weak piedmont trough will persist to the west while high
pressure centered over the Atlantic extends back across the
southeast states. Aloft, upper ridge will encompass majority of the
southern half of the country. Subsidence noted in model soundings
combined with little moisture will suppress convection today, thus
a dry forecast is in place. Low level thickness values from the
12z KCHS sounding support high temperatures in the mid to upper
90s. Luckily the dew points will hold in the mid 60s, producing
heat indices not too far off from actual temperatures.

Very little change was needed with the early afternoon update.
Just minor tweaks to hourly temp and dewpoints based on latest
trends.

Tonight: Scarce moisture and continued ridging aloft will persist
to maintain a rainfree forecast, and with sufficient mixing in the
planetary boundary layer our overnight lows will be fortunate to
even fall to the lower and middle 70s. The barrier islands of
South Carolina will be the warmest with breezy south-southwest
winds to limit min temps to just the upper 70s. With a northwest
flow upstairs, upstream convective debris clouds could
periodically move in, although our forecast does lean toward a
more conservative approach with sky cover no more than about
15-25%.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday: Expect another hot day as temperatures soar to the mid/upper
90s, even to around 100F at some inland locations. Dewpoints in the
upper 60s/lower 70s should be sufficient to push afternoon heat
index values to around 105F across a wide swath of inland counties.
Thus, Heat Advisories will likely be required. Meanwhile, a few
thunderstorms could push into far northern counties Friday
afternoon, mainly late. Pops forecasts remain unchanged, with
slight chance pops limited to far northern locales. The influence of
the capping upper ridge should prevent thunderstorms formation
deeper into the forecast area. However, strong instability suggests
that any thunderstorms that develop over northern counties could
become severe.

Friday night: Ahead of an approaching cold front thunderstorms could
push deeper into the forecast area, although recent guidance
suggests that the influence of the capping ridge retreating to the
SW will hold thunderstorms mainly north of I-16 through the night.
Kinematic/thermodynamic parameters suggest that some thunderstorms
could become severe Friday night, especially if organized
thunderstorms develop upstream and push into the forecast area.
Given the usual uncertainty regarding coverage/timing of
thunderstorms, maintained chance pops across northern/inland
counties, tapered to less than 15 percent with no mention of
thunderstorms south of I-16. Otherwise, expect a warm night with
lows only 75-80F.

Saturday and Saturday night: The cold front will slowly advance into
the region from the north. Forecast uncertainty regarding pops
persists due to the uncertain impact of Friday night thunderstorms
and uncertain timing of the cold front. If thunderstorms work over
the environment across northern counties Friday night, highest pops
and the threat for severe weather will likely shift south of at
least the Charleston Tri-County region. On the other hand, if
thunderstorm coverage remains more sparse than expected Friday
night, the potential for greater pops and the associated threat for
severe weather will reside over the entire forecast area Saturday.
The latest thinking suggests that a slower-moving cold front will
support highest pops across northern counties Saturday afternoon and
across southern counties Friday evening. Forecast
kinematic/thermodynamic parameters suggest a potential for multicell
thunderstorms to produce some damaging winds and locally heavy
rainfall Saturday. Due to normal uncertainty regarding
timing/coverage of thunderstorms, capped max pops around 50 percent,
but locally higher pops could eventually be required. Otherwise,
lows 75-80F Friday night will give way to high temperatures ranging
from the lower 90s north to the upper 90s south/west Saturday.
If/where thunderstorms have not already worked over the environment
by Saturday afternoon, heat index values could push into the 105-
109F range, prompting Heat Advisories for parts of the area,
particularly SE GA.

Sunday: The cold front will weaken and stall over or just south of
the forecast area. Strong drying is not expected, so scattered
showers/thunderstorms should flare especially during the
afternoon/evening. Instability depicted by the GFS/European is
surprisingly strong, especially along/south of the Savannah River,
so a few pulse severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and
torrential rainfall are possible in this area. High temperature are
to range from the upper 80s across the Charleston Tri-County region
to the mid 90s south/west of Savannah.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
This period will feature temps and dewpoints/humidity typical for
late June. The stationary front will dissipate over or close to the
region early next week, but a surface trough will persist across the
region into late week. Initially, the upper ridge centered west of
the region will expand over the Southeast, then a broad upper trough
will develop over the eastern Conus. This, isolated/scattered mainly
diurnal convection to start the week could give way to a wetter
regime mid to later week as a band of deep layered moisture/PWATs
around 2 inches settles over the region. Thus, forecasts for Tuesday
through Thursday include chance pops for all periods, as high as 40-
50 percent during daylight hours each day. Locally greater pops
could eventually be required, especially around Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR through 18z Friday. Gusty winds this afternoon will subside
after sunset.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible in
thunderstorms Friday night through Tuesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: The Piedmont trough will remain firmly in place as the sub-
tropical Atlantic ridge is still aligned east-west across Florida. A
tight packing of the gradient between these two features and a boost
from the afternoon sea breeze circulations will allow for south and
southwest winds as high as 15 or 20 kt. Occasional up near 25 kt
will be possible across AMZ350 and Charleston Harbor, but not
enough to justify hoisting the Small Craft Advisory. Seas will be
2-4 feet on average.

Tonight: A tight pressure pattern continues between the inland
trough and high pressure to the south and southeast. Geostrophic
winds climb as high as 25-30 kt, but warm advection will prevent
enough mixing to hold wind speeds just shy of Small Craft Advisory
over the Charleston County Atlantic waters. Seas will build to 4-5
ft northern waters, and hold around 3 or 4 ft elsewhere.

Friday through Tuesday: Ahead of an approaching cold front Friday
into early Saturday, a tight pressure gradient/enhanced low-level
winds will maintain elevated SW winds 15-20 kt with occasional
gusts just short of 25 kt, accompanied by seas as high as 3-5 ft.
Then, as the cold front gradually migrates through the waters
Saturday afternoon into Sunday, a slackening gradient will
translate to much lighter winds and subsiding seas outside any
thunderstorms. The cold front will eventually stall over or just
south of the waters by late Sunday and will then dissipate early
next week. Thus, winds should turn toward the E/NE at less than 15
kt most areas, although uncertainty regarding the eventual
position of the dissipating stationary front introduced
uncertainty regarding wind direction, especially across GA Waters.
nevertheless, seas will subside to 1-3 ft Sunday into early next
week. Eventually, after the front dissipates winds will veer
through the SE to the S/SW by Monday night or Tuesday between
Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough of low pressure.

Also of note, lighter winds and the presence of the cold/stationary
front and other mesoscale boundaries suggests an increased potential
for isolated waterspouts mainly Saturday PM through Monday.

Rip Currents: We`re arriving at a low risk of rip currents at area
beaches today. Although given the strength of the south and
southwest winds this afternoon up near 15 or 20 mph, and the
resulting long shore current, it is not a good day for poor
swimmers to enter the surf.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KFFC 231630
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1230 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016


.UPDATE...
Have made only minimal changes to the forecast for the afternoon.
Temperatures are generally warming on track and expect no
significant changes until the afternoon forecast package is
issued.

31

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 732 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...
Basically a dry air mass will continue in place across
the forecast area today with the upper ridge dominating. No mention
of convection for today except have kept a slight chance for the
northeast corner this afternoon. The convective system moving
through the OH Valley this morning could potentially send outflow
boundaries into the southern Appalachians...so a slight chance for
northeast GA still looks reasonable. The upper trough over the
northeast states deepens a bit tonight and Friday...sending a
surface front southward into TN and NC. Not certain how far south
this boundary will go during the short term...however chance pops
for the north GA tonight...and north and a portion of central GA on
Friday still look okay. Hot temperatures should continue each day.
Max temperatures in the mid 90s to near 100 for portions of eastern
and central GA should give heat index readings in the 100 to 104
range Friday afternoon. This is just below heat advisory criteria
but will continue to monitor for any increase.

41

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...
An upper level ridge will be firmly entrenched across the
southern states to start the Long Term but the center will be
drifting W with respect to GA. A weak cold front or surface trough
will be drifting into NE GA Friday night into Saturday. This will
help the potential for showers and thunderstorms Friday night
favoring far E Ga and even more so on Saturday with the heating of
the day. A warm airmass will continue with most high temperatures
in the 90s on Saturday except for the mountains. A few locations
around central Ga will approach 100. Heat indices are looking to
get to 103 to 107 degrees over a large portion of central Ga.

The rest of the long term will see increased chances for showers
and thunderstorms...tending to be diurnally driven with the
heating of the day and a overall moisture increase. A cold front
will approach or move into N GA late Tuesday and likely stall
across the area on Wednesday... continuing shower and thunderstorm
chances across the area with the highest pops favoring central GA.

Temperatures will strongly favor above normal this long term period.

BDL

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR conditions expected through the period. No mention of convection
with a dry air mass in place. Expect scattered diurnal cumulus.
Winds remain southwest 10kt with some gusts this afternoon mainly
at KATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
High on all elements.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          97  73  97  75 /   5  10  20  30
Atlanta         92  74  93  76 /   5   5  20  20
Blairsville     88  69  89  68 /  20  50  50  40
Cartersville    93  72  93  73 /  10  10  30  20
Columbus        94  72  96  75 /   5   5  10  10
Gainesville     93  74  93  75 /  10  20  40  30
Macon           97  72  98  74 /   0   5  10  20
Rome            94  72  94  73 /  10  20  40  20
Peachtree City  93  70  93  73 /   5   5  20  20
Vidalia         96  73  97  77 /   5   5  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KCAE 231500
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1100 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sinking southward and into Virginia today and North
Carolina Friday will move into the forecast area Friday night. The
front will remain near the area during the rest of the weekend.
It will be hot ahead of the front today and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Temperatures are rising quickly this morning as CAE has already
reached 92 degrees and most other locations are in the upper 80s
to around 90. Surface map shows high pressure centered along the
Gulf coast while a frontal boundary was located across the Ohio
Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. Water vapor imagery shows a
large area of dry air extending from Texas eastward across the
lower MS valley into the southern Appalachians and South
Carolina.

Regional radar shows a convective complex moving southeastward
across WV/VA which will remain well north of our area. Expect a
hot day under mostly sunny skies, except for some lingering cirrus
into early afternoon. Stronger instability looks to be confined
mainly in the northern Midlands where precipitable water values
are higher. Forecast soundings indicate a strong capping
inversion which should limit any convection from initiating
despite the very warm surface conditions. Will continue with a dry
forecast today across the area although an isolated storm cannot
be ruled out in the far northern Midlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Moisture will remain limited tonight with surface ridging south of
the region. However, moisture and instability associated with a
mid-level shortwave trough may help support thunderstorms mainly
in the north section. Forecasted just slight chance pops because
of the weak support and nocturnal cooling. Boundary layer wind
should help hold up temperatures and we leaned toward the higher
low temperature guidance.

The thunderstorm chance should increase as the cold front sinks
farther southward and moves into the forecast area Friday night.
The models also indicate upper ridging suppressed farther
southward. Still, with surface ridging south of the area limiting
moisture, thunderstorm coverage may remain limited. There is also
uncertainty with the timing of mid-level shortwave troughs. We
leaned toward the higher guidance pops because of convergence
ahead of the front and into the lee-side trough and expected
strong instability, but still kept the pops in the chance
category. Forecasted the highest chance in the north section
closer to greater upper-level support. The models depict strong
instability Friday into Friday night. The NAM displayed surface-
based LI`s -8 to -9. Thunderstorms with damaging wind and hail may
occur. Forecasted the greatest chance ahead of the front and close
to the time of maximum heating late Friday afternoon and evening.
H85 westerly flow and temperatures near 22 C ahead of the cold
front plus recent verification favored the higher temperature
guidance Friday. Followed the guidance consensus for the
temperature Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF display a front stalled near the forecast area
through Tuesday with another cold front nearing the area
Wednesday. The models have upper ridging near the forecast area
Saturday and Sunday shifting farther westward with a difluent
height pattern during the rest of the period. The pattern
supports chance pops. The GFS and ECMWF MOS have pops 20 to 50
percent through the medium-range period. The MOS indicates
temperatures near climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High confidence for VFR conditions through the 24 hour TAF period.

High pressure will remain centered south of the TAF sites and a
cold front will remain north of the area. Scattered high level
clouds across the Midlands. Winds have been a bit more westerly
this morning than expected but should back around to the southwest
with gusts near 20 knots during the afternoon as deep mixing
commences. Convection late this afternoon and this evening should
remain north of the TAF sites.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The chance for mainly diurnal convection
will increase Friday through Monday as a frontal boundary stalls
in the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC




000
FXUS62 KCHS 231431
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1031 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain situated between Atlantic high pressure and an
inland trough into tonight. The trough will move closer to the coast
Friday, then a cold front will gradually advance into the region
Saturday. The front is expected to stall over or close to the area
Sunday and will dissipate early next week. A trough of low pressure
will then prevail across the Southeast through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Little change in the synoptic pattern expected through the
day. A weak piedmont trough will persist to the west while high
pressure centered over the Atlantic extends back across the
southeast states. Aloft, upper ridge will encompass majority of the
southern half of the country. Subsidence noted in model soundings
combined with little moisture will suppress convection today, thus
a dry forecast is in place. Low level thickness values from the
12z KCHS sounding support high temperatures in the mid to upper
90s. Luckily the dew points will hold in the mid 60s, producing
heat indices not too far off from actual temperatures.

Main changes with morning update was to sky cover to account for
convective debris clouds streaming in from the north that was a
bit thicker than previously anticipated. Otherwise ongoing
forecast was in good shape.

Tonight: Scarce moisture and continued ridging aloft will persist
to maintain a rainfree forecast, and with sufficient mixing in the
planetary boundary layer our overnight lows will be fortunate to
even fall to the lower and middle 70s. The barrier islands of
South Carolina will be the warmest with breezy south-southwest
winds to limit min temps to just the upper 70s. With a northwest
flow upstairs, upstream convective debris clouds could
periodically move in, although our forecast does lean toward a
more conservative approach with sky cover no more than about
15-25%.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday: Expect another hot day as temperatures soar to the mid/upper
90s, even to around 100F at some inland locations. Dewpoints in the
upper 60s/lower 70s should be sufficient to push afternoon heat
index values to around 105F across a wide swath of inland counties.
Thus, Heat Advisories will likely be required. Meanwhile, a few
thunderstorms could push into far northern counties Friday
afternoon, mainly late. Pops forecasts remain unchanged, with
slight chance pops limited to far northern locales. The influence of
the capping upper ridge should prevent thunderstorms formation
deeper into the forecast area. However, strong instability suggests
that any thunderstorms that develop over northern counties could
become severe.

Friday night: Ahead of an approaching cold front thunderstorms could
push deeper into the forecast area, although recent guidance
suggests that the influence of the capping ridge retreating to the
SW will hold thunderstorms mainly north of I-16 through the night.
Kinematic/thermodynamic parameters suggest that some thunderstorms
could become severe Friday night, especially if organized
thunderstorms develop upstream and push into the forecast area.
Given the usual uncertainty regarding coverage/timing of
thunderstorms, maintained chance pops across northern/inland
counties, tapered to less than 15 percent with no mention of
thunderstorms south of I-16. Otherwise, expect a warm night with
lows only 75-80F.

Saturday and Saturday night: The cold front will slowly advance into
the region from the north. Forecast uncertainty regarding pops
persists due to the uncertain impact of Friday night thunderstorms
and uncertain timing of the cold front. If thunderstorms work over
the environment across northern counties Friday night, highest pops
and the threat for severe weather will likely shift south of at
least the Charleston Tri-County region. On the other hand, if
thunderstorm coverage remains more sparse than expected Friday
night, the potential for greater pops and the associated threat for
severe weather will reside over the entire forecast area Saturday.
The latest thinking suggests that a slower-moving cold front will
support highest pops across northern counties Saturday afternoon and
across southern counties Friday evening. Forecast
kinematic/thermodynamic parameters suggest a potential for multicell
thunderstorms to produce some damaging winds and locally heavy
rainfall Saturday. Due to normal uncertainty regarding
timing/coverage of thunderstorms, capped max pops around 50 percent,
but locally higher pops could eventually be required. Otherwise,
lows 75-80F Friday night will give way to high temperatures ranging
from the lower 90s north to the upper 90s south/west Saturday.
If/where thunderstorms have not already worked over the environment
by Saturday afternoon, heat index values could push into the 105-
109F range, prompting Heat Advisories for parts of the area,
particularly SE GA.

Sunday: The cold front will weaken and stall over or just south of
the forecast area. Strong drying is not expected, so scattered
showers/thunderstorms should flare especially during the
afternoon/evening. Instability depicted by the GFS/European is
surprisingly strong, especially along/south of the Savannah River,
so a few pulse severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and
torrential rainfall are possible in this area. High temperature are
to range from the upper 80s across the Charleston Tri-County region
to the mid 90s south/west of Savannah.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
This period will feature temps and dewpoints/humidity typical for
late June. The stationary front will dissipate over or close to the
region early next week, but a surface trough will persist across the
region into late week. Initially, the upper ridge centered west of
the region will expand over the Southeast, then a broad upper trough
will develop over the eastern Conus. This, isolated/scattered mainly
diurnal convection to start the week could give way to a wetter
regime mid to later week as a band of deep layered moisture/PWATs
around 2 inches settles over the region. Thus, forecasts for Tuesday
through Thursday include chance pops for all periods, as high as 40-
50 percent during daylight hours each day. Locally greater pops
could eventually be required, especially around Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR through 12Z Friday. Southwest winds will increase to around
15- 20 kt with the sea breeze at KCHS the second part of this
afternoon into the early evening.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible in
thunderstorms Friday night through Tuesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: The Piedmont trough will remain firmly in place as the sub-
tropical Atlantic ridge is still aligned east-west across Florida. A
tight packing of the gradient between these two features and a boost
from the afternoon sea breeze circulations will allow for south and
southwest winds as high as 15 or 20 kt. Just like yesterday there
will be occasional gusts up near 25 kt across AMZ350 and Charleston
Harbor, but not enough to justify hoisting the Small Craft Advisory.
Wind waves will be the dominant part of the wave spectrum, averaging
3 or 4 ft.

Tonight: A tight pressure pattern continues between the inland
trough and high pressure to the south and southeast. Geostrophic
winds climb as high as 25-30 kt, but warm advection will prevent
enough mixing to hold wind speeds just shy of Small Craft Advisory
over the Charleston County Atlantic waters. Seas will build to 4-5
ft northern waters, and hold around 3 or 4 ft elsewhere.

Friday through Tuesday: Ahead of an approaching cold front Friday
into early Saturday, a tight pressure gradient/enhanced low-level
winds will maintain elevated SW winds 15-20 kt with occasional
gusts just short of 25 kt, accompanied by seas as high as 3-5 ft.
Then, as the cold front gradually migrates through the waters
Saturday afternoon into Sunday, a slackening gradient will
translate to much lighter winds and subsiding seas outside any
thunderstorms. The cold front will eventually stall over or just
south of the waters by late Sunday and will then dissipate early
next week. Thus, winds should turn toward the E/NE at less than 15
kt most areas, although uncertainty regarding the eventual
position of the dissipating stationary front introduced
uncertainty regarding wind direction, especially across GA Waters.
nevertheless, seas will subside to 1-3 ft Sunday into early next
week. Eventually, after the front dissipates winds will veer
through the SE to the S/SW by Monday night or Tuesday between
Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough of low pressure.

Also of note, lighter winds and the presence of the cold/stationary
front and other mesoscale boundaries suggests an increased potential
for isolated waterspouts mainly Saturday PM through Monday.

Rip Currents: We`re arriving at a low risk of rip currents at area
beaches today. Although given the strength of the south and
southwest winds this afternoon up near 15 or 20 mph, and the
resulting long shore current, it is not a good day for poor
swimmers to enter the surf.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...




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